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f 56, 6
THE __ _ si-r UATION BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE PES- 164 MAR.-APR 1953 Measures of EGG PRODUCTION EFFICIENCY By Flock Size, Indiana, 1950 Under 100-199 200 & over 10- oo FLOCK SIZE ii i~i=~i $OF AVFOR ALL FLOCKS* ,9. 150 100 :50 0 EGGS LAID LAYERS TENDED EGGS PER PER 100 MAN- PROD. PER BIRD HOURS 100 MAN-HOURS ADAPTED FROM "LABOR AND POWER USED FOR FARM ENTERPRISES: INDIANA, 1950." USDA, BAE. IN STA TEWIDE SAMPLE. NEG. 49076-XX BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS U. S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Small laying flocks do not provide as efficient use of labor as do larger flocks. Further, because small side-line enterprises do not yield enough in- come to merit the specialized attention to feeding, disease control, and management which is justified by larger flocks, they often are inefficient in other factors as well. For these reasons, many midwestern poultry advisors are recommending that farmers have either only a small flock of layers to provide their families' needs for eggs and chicken, or else to have a flock of at least 400 to 500 layers which can be profitably managed on a commercial basis. -- - . /LP FOR RELEASE APR. 10, A. M. f MARCH-AP.RI 1953 -2- W P *LIMM AM MG 812JSW AT A SICAW Its tdt I ar """ 3 m ian .1962-1s s : date :92-51 I I 1 1 Fa-- proiotio ........: Nil. dog. : Jan. 370.7 Awareg member of : layer an Em .......- MIta : Jan. 398.3 Monthly egg production per layer ..............: regg n Ja. 11.2 Afta t elvillan pae r capits isaeppearme .. r Jan. 32.2 frose egg praj aetl ..: E1. lb. : Jan. 10.3. tled sgg preiatiae ...: 1. lb. : Jan. 8.0 Prime eselved y : Itor ............... Ot.er dos.: Feb. 35.8 hi.o m oeelwt 1W 3 : las Ma'a pagmt- : ag of arity ......... Pemrsit : Feb. 96 lteal prim (MI) .....sOt.pr 40s. Feb. kg9.k -fb prioe a eo ...a Lb. ft : Feb. 11.6 3 3 sel ................athon.s u: Feb. 1 306, emr n ............... Wl. Ib. Feb. 1 79.9 Chlk hbathad by eam- 6 alawal Bathar .... niLo : Jan. 63.6 Hens and pullets of a laying age an fans ...; NUme : Feb. 1 Tanm ri ofat poultry ratla ................ :Dol.par et Feb. 3.22 Price received by farm- : ere for chickens, live I Broiler ............. lt. per lb. Feb. 27.46 Faz chicokene ........ .Ct. per lb.: Feb. 26.8 All chickens ......... ICL. per lb.: Feb. 26.1 Price received by farm- : ere for all chickens as: a percentage of parity. i Percent : Feb. 106 Betail price of hsah.a drease (BAM) .........0Ct. per lb.: Feb. h6.-3 Price reaved y : : hI n fa r tu : 1l .................. Ct. p lb.: Feb. 32.p Btoote: : Poaltry, eoalatn : t-tbaIs ............. s Ni1. lb. Feb. 1 162.1 Tatihr. ..............: N1l. lb. Feb. 1 88.1 Chlabn-red prim I ftio .................: .Lb. f :d Feb. 8.3 Tafey-r efe price ratio : Lb. feed Feb. 10.2 AVMege weekly plane- agt of cbabh s in 11 roller a ...... : Mlae : Feb. -- : : 33 I I I 3 S 3 II 3 Moth II 1 ' 1952 s 1953 or "aw : 1952 a 1953 : C et 3 3 :i isat :19k2-51, euinet etrtic 3-* 3 3 I3 1m Uk6.3 h53. :: Feb. 396.6 375.9 :: Feb. 16.0 16.5 :: Feb. 37.0 37.1 :: Feb. 17.9 18.1 Feb. 1.1 0.6 :: Feb. 3: 36.7 62.0 :1 Mar. 3: 79 103 :: Mar. 53.0 j/ :: Mtr. 8.1 10.6 Mar. 238 120 : Mar. 1 53.1 35.0 :: Mar. 1 121.9 127.3 :: Feb. 380.3 370.5 Mar. 1 k.25 3.96 Ma r. :I 29.3 27.9 :: Mar. 26.8 26.0 :: Mar. 27.7 26.6 :: Mar. 90 86 Mar. 56.1 i: Mar. 36.1 33.3 Har. 183.6 118.2 :: Mar. 1 116.h1 162.9 :ar. I 6.5 6.7 Mar. 8.5 8. :: Mar. 14.2 22.6 :: Mar. L07.1 4'72.3 6h6.O :) :) 3) 391.0 375.3 366.2 3) :) 3) 12.5 15.1 14.6 3) 31.5 35.6 36.0 : I 30.1 38.1 38-h :) 11.3 1.9 1.2 3) I I 35.1 3h.0 44.7 I i 98 77 109 1h9.6 51.5 L/ 11.0 8.0 11.3 722 962 268 28-day month a factor in the January- February comparioans of production and. di appearance Deterred by high prices for breaking took s)Tn the past, comparable In- .)creAesB over previoDl year :)have Induced Increases in bchlcken raised 1 79.1 60.6 42.1 :) More recent, but unofficial, 125.8 190.4 172.9 1) reports suggest current :) activity exceeds 1952 --- 369.7 357.9 3.29 6.23 3.97 I 29.2 28.0 28.2 :) 25.8 26.9 26.3 :) 27.5 27.1 27.5 ) 110 81 89 46.8 53.1 1/ 32.1 34.5 33.6 141.5 163.9 100.0 80.8 106.5 117.0 Price effects of larger beef supplies offeet by leas pork? On basis of 35-a ty re- ports, March ou tovebr t about equaled February 6.4 6.9 8.1 8.5 a 14.0 ) At and of March, weekly 14.0 3 placements were e--eeding -I arr.,,I, I/ latest available data are for December 1952, and were reported in the Jan.-Feb. 1953 Poultry and g Situation. . ; PES-164 THE POULTRY AND EGG SITUATION *' ,- - - -- - Approved by the Outlook and Situation Board April 6, 1953 SUMMARY Egg production, near its season peak, is running below a year ..i' .earlier, roughly in proportion to the 3 percent reduction in the number of layers on farms larch 1. The reduced supplies, continued good demand for eggs for immediate consumption, and a small early-season accumulation of frozen egg, have held prices roughly 10 cents per dozen above .a year earlier. After mid-year, both egg production and egg prices are likely to be much nearer to year-ago levels. With the rise in egg prices and the reduction in the price, of poultry ration, egg-feed price ratios in January, February, and L.iarch were 19, 31, and 41 percent higher than in the same months of .1952. In past ,hatching seasons, such increases in the egg-feed price ratio have. been followed by some increase in the number of chickens raised for laying flock replacement. S Turkey hatchings through March were reduced from a year earlier. However, the sharp cuts in early-season operations do not necessarily indicate similar cuts for the year as a whole. A Turkey Industry Con- %..r'terenoe held in Wlashington on March 5 and 6 recommended a 12 to 15 percent-out from 1952 in the production of heavy turkeys. REVIEW AND OUTLOOK '~gg Prices to Hid-Summer to Continue Higher than in 9 52 -Egg prices through l'arch this year continued sharply higher than during the same period in 1952, with the prospect that they will continue so through the first half of this year. In the summer and fall, however, the seasonal price rise is likely to be less pronounced than in 1952, and prices probably will be much closer to a year earlier than they have been so far. Main reasons for the relatively high current level of egg prices . L..E.ar.: (a). .the. re.ductidn in egg production from last year, (b) the small amount stored so far relative to the "requirements" for frozen and stored &hel1 -6ggs, and"(c) the continued high level of demand. - 3 - MARCH-APRIL 1953 -.4- Table I1.- Eggs: Monthly.commercial supply from farm production, and average prices, January 1951 to.date 1/ : :. Net commer- : : Egg : cial cold : Year : pro- :storage move-: and : duction:ments, shell : month : on : and frozen :1 farms 1,000 cases 14,083 14,369 17,100 16,778 16,336 14,056 12,619 11,422 10,953 11,778 12,069 13,314 15,019 15,875 17,892 17,200 16,619 13,978 12,397 11,542 11,411i 12,228 12,528 14, 064 15,800114 14,800 : equivalent : : Out : In : 1,000 .1,000 cases cases 381 105 938 1,214 1,232 1,015 760 210 659 996 934 1,474 1,152 810 429 108 892 1,810 2,371 1,007 886 1,148 1,238 1,797 791 Eggs ; for : atch.in 1,000. cases 672 1,127 . 1,322 1,129 595 437 371 320 346. 348 363 508 793 1,219 1,208 900 486 3541 327 333 360 366 395 530 government: Effective purchases: supply in for sur- : commercial * plus : channels removal g/:(including U.S. r Armed Forces). 1,000 1,000 cases- cases 13,792 13,134 14,886 13,839 13,370 12,612 12,353 12,040 11,821 12,662 12,721 13,566 1951 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June. July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 1952 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 720 293 2/1,179 14,436 13,770 15,536 15,062 14,336 12,833 12,729 12,205 S11,860 13,253 13,268 14,343 :14,823 13,337 U.S. average: farm price, per dozen U. S. average retail price, (BAE) per dozen CeML. .-Cents 42.6 41.4 43.7 43.2 45.2 44.7. 46.6 49.6 55.0 55.6, 56.5 51.1 40.5 34.7 34.0 35.2 34.2 35.7 43.3 48.2 48.7 50.3 51.9 46.6 45.8 42. 0 44.7 61.4 57.8 .63.7 62.1 64.5 .. 65.5 . 67.3 ..71.9 75.9 78.8 78.0 69.6 S58.8 53.0 51.5 53.0 52.2 54.0 66.3 68.8 69.5 '74.2 72.3 64.2 / Corresponding data for prior months are given in The Poultry and EggSituation- .June 1951, table 5, page 12 and Mar.-Apr. 1952, table 1, page 5. g/ Surplus removal purchases for 1952 entered according to m9nth of scheduled delivery. 3/ Estimated on basis of eggs in incubators March 1. 9 U q 125 83 .17 1 Feb. Mar. : I --- IIIIIIIII I I mlll I I B I I PES-164 Egg Production Below Last Year Egg production on farms for the next few *onths will continue below last year, in line with the 3 percent reduction from last year in the number of layers on hand Larch la Almost until mid-year, changes from last year in the rate of lay per bird are unlikely to be large enough to substantially affect the total egg output, and supplies will be below the 1952 level. Although egg supplies are smaller then in 1952, they are near the high point of this year, and prices of fresh eggs for the 4 or 5 months after June are virtually certain to be higher than in the months preceding0 These expectations are based on normal seasonal developrmenLs that have occurred in every past year, Table 2.- Layers on farms March 1 as a percentage of potential layers en farms January 1, by regions, 1949-53 : 'March 1 layers as a percentage of Region January 1 potential layers Region ^ -- ; --- ---- - 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 : Percent Percent Perccnt Percent- Percent N. Atlantio 6 88 86 88 87 88 E. No. Central 90 90 91 89 89 W. N. Central 92 90 91 92 92 So Atlantie s 84 65 84 84 84 So Central t 84 84 87 86 84 Western : 91 87 87 86 87 United States : 89 87 89 88 88 Shell Eggs in Storage Fewer than Last Year Storage stocks of shell eggs this year are likely to be considerably below the July 1, 1952, holdings of 3,4 million cases. This prospect is based mainly on the continuing trend toward a seasonal leveling-out of egg production on farnis, and on the current level of egg prices, which in March, at-44.7 cents (Uo So. average farm price) was more than 10 cents per dozen higher than a year earlier, With production of fresh eggs in the fall likely to be closer to the level of a year ago than this spring, the seasonal price rise is expected to be smaller this year than last. Consequently, the oppor- tunities for profit from shell egg storage will be narrowed. Although a smaller seasonal egg price rise than last year is in pro- spect, a nearly average relationship has existed in the last month or two between fresh egg prices and egg futures contracts in Chicago. With both September and October contracts holding near 51 and 50 cents per dozen respectively in late March, the futures were on most days from 3 to 5 cents above the lowest-quoted packs of Extras in the spot markets. The course of egg future prices for the 1952 deliveries is shown in table h. - 6 - MARCH-A FRIL 1953 Table 3-- Shell and frozen eggs in refrigerated storage, March 1953, with comparisons SShell and frozen Shell.eggs Frozen eggs combined Date, .. _.. .. combined 1951 1952' 1953 -1951 : 1952 1953 : 1951 '1952 1953 house TThous. Thous, Mil; Mil. Mil. Thous. Thous. Thous. :eses cases cases lbs. .bs, lbs, cases cases cases Total U. S. stocks January 1 : 34 141 153 47 67 50 1,263 1,886 1,456 February 1 : 75 238 120 31 53 35 884 1,616 1,029 March 1 : 159 942 248 33 61 42 1,009 2,515 1,342 April 1 : 309 1,596 62 84 1,927 3,785 May 1 973 2,184 109 111 3,811 5,072 June 1 :2,083 3,184 163 146 6,308 6,973 July. :2,427 .3,357 190 166 7,362 7,680 August 1 :2,270 2,728 191 163 7,226 6,971 September 1 :1,615 2,169 176 144 6,194 5,918 October 1 : 958 1,709 151 124 4.888 4,921 November 1 : 527 1,000 122. 95 3,685 3,476 December 1 : 230 393 95 72 2,701 2,275 : Stocks in 35 principal cities g/ March 21 : 135 1,019 176 25 44 32. 796 2,161 999 March 28 : 175 1,107 201 30 48 34.' 948 2,352 1,079 April 4 : 249 1,189 222 36 51 38 1,190 2,518 1,201 April 11 : 337 1,243 41 56 1,413 2,694 / Frozen egg converted at 38.5 pounds,equivalent to 1 case. / Given dates are for 1953; for other years, corresponding Saturdays. Prodution of iguid and Frozen EW Lags Production and storage of liquid, frozen,and dried egg are influenced by somewhat different factors than those affecting storage of shell eggs. Net costs of storage for frozen egg are considerably lower than for shell eggs. This is partly because normally there is no grade loss in the holding of frozen egg as there is for shell. In the winter, spring-packed frozen egg may even command a premium over the currently-produced commod- ity. As a result, storage costs for frozen egg are offset by a much smaller seasonal price rise than that which is necessary to justify the storage of shell eggs. ' - 6 - PES-164 Ordinarily: production of the processed egg products during each spring's flush season is large enough so that the price during the out-of- storage season is usually related to spring-time production cost plus accu- mulated storage charges. Thus frozen egg prices during the late swumer and fall do not reflect current production costs to any great extent. The price for stored shell eggs, on the other hand, usually is based on the current price for fresh eggs minus a discount to offset the real or presumed quality changes that occurred during storage. The above situation applies to frozen egg prices when supplies are liberal, as is usually the case. But when supplies are so short as to drive prices above accustomed levels, it is more difficult to foresee the extent to which the price might rise. The processed eggs which are used in pastries, noodles, salad dress- ings, and the dry cake mixes which have recently become popular, are anong the most expensive ingredients in those end-products. Manufacturers have probably explored most of the opportunities for economics in the use of eggs in those products, and they can reduce the amount of eggs used only by re- ducing the quantity or quality of the output, However, eggs make up only a relatively small proportion of the total retail cost of these end-products. A rise in egg prices, therefore, has relatively little effect on the retail prices and thus on the quantity taken by consumers. For these reasons, the quantity of egg products demanded may not decline in proportion to a rise in price. Table 4.- Egg futures contracts, Chicago Fercantile Txchenge: monthly highs, cents per dozen, 1952, and 1953 oontzacts to date Highest daily closing :_ price (per dozen) during: Sept. : the month of: : 1952 : : Cents 1951 October : 45.25 November : 46,70 December : 46.25 1952 January February March April May June July August September October November Decembo r 1953 January February March 45,95 43.90 43,90 43.65 43.50 45,45 50,05 49.45 45.95 Oct. : 1952 : Cents 46.50 46.25 45,90 44.15 44,00 43.80 43.95 46,25 50,40 50.30 47.00 43.90 Contract 1ov. : Dec3 a 1952 : 1952: Cents Cents 43.85 44.10 46 85 50.65 50.70 47.85 44,35 44.65 49.00 49.00 46.00 44.20 '15.05 47.55 aJn. : 1953 : Cents 39.75 42.050 43.00 Sept.: 1953 : Cents 45.06 44.50 45.75 Oct. 1953 Cents 45.75 47.60 49.65 51.75 46.20 47.55 49.65 52.75 I - ----------;--------- - 7 - MARCH-APRIL 1953 An. individual supplier, of. processed egg., of course, may find his sales fluctuating considerably with changes :inl pricesoa For the products .:.* ..of the egg-break.ing industry as .a whole, however, the quantity of pro- S cessed egg products sold is not likely to be, 4harply.reduced if prices S increase from accustomed levels.. ,. Uhiess production (breaking) is up sharply from rates earlier in the season, and continues at an accelerated rate until mid-year, the season peak storage stocks will be lower than in 1952* With users un- likely to reduce their takings proportionately, stocks will be inadequate 'ari"d considerable out-of-season egg breaking is -likelyi In that case, the cost of replacer, ent from out-of-season production will be a strong influence on prices for frozen egg. This'indicates that prices in the next 6 or 8 months may rise by considerably more than accumulated storage charges, if springtime accumulations of frozen (and dried) egg in storage do not at least equal those of a year agoe Table 5.- January 1 stocks of frozen egg, and liquid egg production, 1951 to date' -- r .." ** -' ,."* **s' Item . January" stocks'of- frozen egg . S reduction of'liquid egg,. January .. February March April May June July August-December total Annual total 1951 I 1~..... PNil. lb., 47. 23 35. 77 84, 87 50 23S 31 1952 Mil. lb, 67 23 48 63 64 71 48 22 43 409 382 : .1953 Til. lbo 50 21 45 I : - 8 - -- PES-164 Economic Factors Suggest Change from January Intentions for Fewer Chikens The hatchery report released March 16 did not indicate a sub- stantial departure from farmers' February intentions to raise 4 percent fewer chickens than in 1952 for laying flock replacement. However, if the February intentions are carried through this would be the first time since 1925, when records first became available, that an increase in the egg-feed price ratio failed to induce an increase in the number of chickens raised. Egg-feed price ratios in January, February, and March were 19, 51, and 41 percent respectively above a year earlier. The ratios in the remaining months of the hatching season are likely to show similar gains over a year earlier. As a result, farmers are likely to reconsider their plans to reduce ohick numbers. The usual close relationship be- tween the weighted springtime egg-feed price ratio and the number of chickens raised is illustrated below. EGG-FEED PRICE RATIO AND CHICKENS RAISED % OF PRECEDING YEAR E L Egg-feed price ratio** 0 j 120 80 V- - Chickens raised 1930 1940 1950 WEIGHTED 7-MONTH AVERAGE 0 BASED ON INDICATIONS THROUGH MARCH U.S DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE N EG. 46894A-X X BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS L: ik'.. . - 9 - MARCR-APRIL 1953 Table 6.- 10 - Egg-feed price ratio, chickens raised, and pullets on farms, January 1, United States, 1925 to date SEgg-feed Pullete :Percentage of preceding year Egg-feed Pulets : .Pullets Year : price ratio :Chickens: on farm :Intentions. Egg-feed Ynrrtt : s :Chickens: on farms (weighted. raised January 1 to raise price :Chicken: on fa- s Averagee) : following chickens ratio* rae : folong : avrag~l : lou~ng cn: following3 S Pounds Millions Millions Percent Percent Percent 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 Revised. Preliminary. For 1953, November through March; comparable 1952 in parentheses. Weights are as follows: Preceding November, 1; preceding December, 2; January, 3; February, 4; March, 5; April, 3; May, 1. 679 718 750 700 751 Percent 12.9 13.5 13.4 12.2 13.1 13.8 10.6 11.6 14.3 10.9 11.4 13.1 9.4 11.4 12.6 10.4 11.5 13.2 14.7 11.2 12.8 11.9 11.3 9.8 12.7 9.6 11.4 9.0(9.3) 3/(11.2) 777 709 736 750 644 658 715 601 651 697 634 745 844 1,001 832 1/890 1/738 1/615 1/705 1/635 1/663 2j617 244 230 237 238 212 226 249 215 242 254 240 278 319 350 301 322 281 278 258 287 264 276 255 103 106 104 93 107 104 91 104 102 86 102 109 84 108 107 91 118 113 119 83 107 83 97 86 115 90 104 93 105 77 109 123 76 105 115 72 121 111 83 111 115 111 76 114 93 95 87 130 76 119 79 94 103 100 89 107 110 86 113 105 94 116 115 110 86 107 87 99 93 111 92 105 92 96 109 112 116 83 96 86 94 80 107 88 96 90 96 P..S-164 Past experience has been that the percentage change from one year to the next in chickens raised has averaged about half the percentage change in the rei hted egg-feed nrice ratio. This year the change in the rqtio is so extreme that a fully corresponding change in the number of chickens raised is unlikely. However, if the increase irere to be only one-third or half of that ordinarily expected to follow eg;.-feed ratios as favorable as those of recent months, the resulting number of mullets available for egg production in the spring of 1954 would produce considerably nore eggs than were available this spring. Since other factorsbesites supply influence ef-g prices, it is too early to estimnt. whit egg prices mifht be a year from now. However, springtime prices have in the vast been sensitive to small changes in supply, on account of the delicate balance usually existing at that season when consumer channels are liberally supplied, and the storage demand responds to small rice changes. The report of hatchery production for February showed a 9 percent decline in output from February 1952. About a third of this decline is accounted for by the shorter month this year than in 1952, a leap year. The remaining 5 or 6 percent of this difference between 1952 and 1953 chick production may not have extended to chick sales, since in February 1952 there were reported to have been many unsold chicks which hatcherymen had to destroy. Demand in February 1953 was reported to be good. The next indication of the trend in numbers of replacement chicks will be the estimate of chicks and young chickens on farms "pril 1, in the April 10 report of Crop Production. Table 7 and the accompanying chart show the extent to which this report, and others later in the season, indicate of the number of laying pullets finally to be housed from the year's hatch. Table 6a.- Turkeys: First-of-month holdings in refrigerated warehouses, total U. S., 1945 to date Year : Jan.: Feb.: Mar.: Apr.: iay : June: July: aug.: Sept.: Oct.: Ifov.: Dec. Mil. Mil. Nil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Nil. Lil. 11il. Hil. Nil. l11l. lbs. lbsbs. s. lbsI lbs. lbs. lbs. lbs. lbs. lbs. lbs. lbs. 1945 :73 74 63 46 33 29 27 21 18 27 43 78 1946 : 108 135 135 124 107 97 79 63 55 45 84 117 1947 : 128 140 126 109 95 86 72 59 45 39 65 86 1948 :83 83 70 55 41 33 27 19 13 15 34 47 1949 : 51 55 51 44 36 33 29 21 21 35 76 107 1950 127 138 129 113 93 77 64 47 37 43 77 108 1951 :110 117 101 80 60 48 39 30 25 42 83 109 1952 :107 116 107 93 72 63 56 46 44 71 142 158 1953 : 147 143 117 - 11 - - 12 - YOUNG CHICKENS ON FARMS IN THE SPRING, AND NUMBERS OF PULLETS FOR LAYtNG PURPOSES AT END OF YEAR, 1932-52 .-Percentages of.Preceding Year ON FARMS DEC.31 (%OF PREC.YR.) ., 80 100 120 ON FARMS IN SPRING U. S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE '.. : 41 '38 "42 : '49 47. -*'43 '40.8 '34 '50 . -'S2 44 '37 MAY 1 '41 '42 -4- '38 '- -'49 '3 5 ", .'o 4 3 '47 *, .45 .50 ...r .,-- '48. 1932 | g "33 ' ' '44--- '"40 " "44" % ".'52 ,7 '46 I JU 34 '37 '46 JULY 1 l I '' 60 80 100 120 140 JG (% OF PREC. YR.) 8588-X BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS 1 20 S'41. '38 '38 -34 '45'39 ,' '42 '4 JU '49 '48 *" ". ', : I --'52 '33 932 3 '50 *34 ---"- -r -- JUNE 1 i- ,- 120 80 60 6 0 11 "'~"' -- I Downward Adjustment Desirable for Size of 19.3 Turkey gr , Price trends since the new year have been different for small turkeys and large ones. Beltsville Small Whites, typical of the small turkeys, have sold at prices well above the 1952 average. In the East, the price oiitlnok for producers of small turkeys for the next few months is good, since egg settings and hatchings have been sharply reduced-in the Shenandoah Valley, a principal producing area. Growers' January intentions were to grow 23 per- cent fewer birds of this type in 1953 than in 1952. Current prices for toms of the heavy breeds are slightly below the levels of early January. Until after mid-year, major supplies of these birds will come from storage stocks, rather than from current slaughter as is the case for small birds. Although smaller than 4 months ago, these stocks are quite large. Growers' January intentions were to cut the 1953 output of this class of turkey by only 3 percent. The reduction would be only half as large as the quantity bought by the Department of Agriculture from the 1952 crop for surplus removal. Table 7.- Springtime numbers rof young chickens on farms and numbers of pullets for laying purposes at end of year, 1931 to date .- Numbers, 1931 : 1932 : 1933 : 1934 : 1935 : 1936 1937 1938 : 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945: 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 : 1951 1952 April: Mill. 140 149 122 99 114 110 126 158 167 126 155 185 227 231 206 218 206 155 203 216 201 219 ME M_ Chicks and young chickens on farms : Pullets on farms f: As a percentage of : December 31 first of month _3s : "preceding year : : Percentage : : : : Number :of preced- Iy : June July April: May June July :f p rea 1. M. .. P : eat. il. Mil. Mil. Pet. Pct. PC t. Pc t. M5_1. Pct. 333 330 350 298 325 345 324 364 387 323 354 420 472 471 460 46o 429 353 4o09 384 406 384 502 520 542 491 481 541 465 509 531 477 513 589 679 616 625 575 563 476 537 516 550 559 503 504 570 464 513 534 499 550 611 732 595 660 559 557 479 533 106 82 81 115 96 115 125 lo06 75 123 119 123 102 89 106 94 75 131 99 lo06 85 109 106 94 112 106 83 110 119 112 100 98 100 93 82 116 483 470 101 94 523 508 93 106 489 467 109 9.5 1o4 1014 91 98 112 86 109 104 90 108 115 115 91 101 92 98 85 113 90 108 93Z 107 102 90 100 113- 81 111 104 93 110 111 120 81 111 85 100 86 111 88 . 108' * .*.ta. 230 237 238 212 226 249 215 242 254 .2h 0 273 .319 .350 301 *322 281 278 258 287 264 276 '255 103 100 69 107 110 *. 86 113 105 94 116 115 110 86 .107 87 99 93 111 92 105 A 92 ___ __ II~ ___ _ PES -164 - 13 - MARCH-APRIL 1953 14 - On December 1, 1952, holdings of frozen turkey were record large (table 6a), even after allowing for the fact that they included a con- siderable number of birds intended for later delivery to the Department of Agriculture. Since that date they have declined steadily, contrary to the usual seasonal increase which in previous years had brought stocks to the season peak about February 1. On March 1, 1953, the total hold- ings were 117 million pounds; during the month they declined further. By April 1 turkeys owned by USDA or intended for delivery to USDA were no longer a significant part of the storage holdings. The amount of the month-to-month decline in turkey storage holdings this spring is significant because if large holdings remain when substan-- 'tial marketing begin from.the 1953 crop, they will be a-price-depressing .influence. An Advisory Committee which met-in Wiashingtoni on March 5 and 6 recommended that the 1953'production of heavy turkeys be reduced 12 to 15 percent from the record-high level of-1952. / " The extent of the likely downward trend in the 1953 production of large turkeys is not yet clear. The monthly report of hatchery production shows the percentage change in operations from last year for a matched sample of hatcheries. These data, with 1952 comparisons, are: Year Percentage change from a year earlier Sand month to : Poult output : Turkey eggs in in- : Turkeys which report : In previous : Cumulative : cubators at begin- : raised for _.app2_ :es month : for season : aig of _given month: the year : S .. Percent Percen* : Fe-rcnt Percent 1953 : ' March : -34 -19 1952 : 13 March : 58 30 - April : .27 34 40 ' May 12 '22' 10 June 6 16 2 July :. 0 13 12 . 1951 19 March : 10 16 April : 5 6 0 ..ay 6 6 16- ..'June : 7 6 48 *'July : 32 10 38 The table indicates that early-season hatchery output data are an inade- quate basds for predicting full-season changes in turkey output. The table is based on reports which do not segregate poults of the large and small breeds. I/ USDA press release 553, March 6, 1953. PES-164 - 15 - In order to give the turkey industry a better basis for judging its position, and to provide infonratlon early cn:'ugh for the industry to make appropriate adjastiments, the Bureau .f Agricultural .conom'.ics is making a special turkey survey this spring. The survey, covering 13 States, will report (a) 1953 pTult production, oiu ulative through Al-ril, as a percent- age of corresponding 1952, (b) puilt production in the last week of Apriil 1953 as a percentage of corresponding 1952, and (c) eggs in incubators May 1. Since the incubation period for turkeys is 28 days, a I4ey 1 re- port on numbers of eggs in incubators vill indicate production through late May. The data are to he separate far light -breed turl-eys and heavy. breed turkeys. The 13 states, chosen as representative of the heavy- producing sections in various regi,'ns of the country, are Nev Ycrk, Virginia, South Carolina, Ohio, Michigan, 14innesota, Iowa, Nebrasko, Hissouri, Texas, California, Oregon, and l'ashinjvton. Table 8.- Turkeys: Frices per pound for various types, January 1953 t:, date : Data 17 Item : Jan. : Jan. : Feb. : Feb. : Mar, : Cents '..cnts Cents Cents Cent/s * U. S. average received by famnners at mid-month (live) : Small turkeys: ,Shenandoah Valley, Va. and W. Va., at farm, live San Joaquin Valley, Calif., at ranch, live 33.3 : Mar., ; Apr. Cert s Cents :33.6 24 42 L 41. -42 42-43 2-43 33-3'1 New York City, New York dressed 2/ Eviscerated :/ Large turkeys-toms San Joaquari Valley, Calif., at ranch, live New York City, New York dressed under 20 pounds 26 pounds and up Eviscerated under 20 pounds 24 pounds and up S53-54 53-54 63-65 64-1.5 :281-29.; 2?--30 *403-4'1. 43-41-, 44-041 44--5 52 -53 6 6. 40 -41 45-46 53-56 52-54 52-54 53-55 53-56 55-56i 53A-554 '64-67 401-41W 45-4 6 52-54 54-56k 554-56 64-67 5/4-67 614' 6? 40ai-41 400-41- 44-21 5 43 A-44i- 53-55. 53-55 50-53 53-55 1/ Or first available quotation thereafter. 2/ Ice packed. 2/ Eviscerated (rbady-to cook).. 51-52 64-68 402-41' 43-44 50-52 52-55 MARCH-APII, 1993 UIt1a Apil Jrollers J0 Compoeg r SAByrroduct Cookerel2 Reported February and. Iawch placements of broilers in s~esial i4 rpeas were short of the records set iU those months In 1952, &at te piemmwt outlook does not suggeet a repetition of the marketing glute which oluowre last May, Nowever, recent settings of egge in incubators in roller sm!e have been rising, and early April placements are likely to be higher than In 195. Broiler chicks placed in early April will 'be ready for marketing before moat byproduct cockerels reared with pullet replacements are sold. But later broiler placemepte will have to sell ip competition with byproduct ookere1s. Table 9.- boilers and fryeras selected areas, selected f.o.b. farm prices, per pound, live, In dates, November 14, 1952 to date Area t -. ,__,, ___ fl 3 1952 Weight :_ _ or cla Nov. 14 Dee, 1953 15 Jan. 15 Feb. 16,Nar. 2 Aftr. 16 Apr. 1 I I IDel-Mar-Va u Under : : 3 lbs, 33"-35 Zostoo area t 3j-k4 s t lbs, t 31-35 Shea*mAoa Valley a Broilers : :and fryers: 33-34 North Georgia t Under t ; 3 lbe, 30-3$1 Arkpanas : All I : weight : 32 Ts9 : Srollerp i tor fryers : 331"32 San Joaquin Valle. r Fryers 1 29-31 leoa / 2 lbs. Sand up 30-31 U.S. average 5fas prioe g/ s : 31.3 Cents Cents CIts Cnts CAB Cnt 27*-28a 28 27--26 25-28 25-27 28 26-27 26+.29 26-28 30 26 31-32 26-27 28-29 31-33 27-28 26-28 29.6 28.2 27-271 26-26 864-27 24-30 25-27 23-24 FII-s96 27 27 26-27 96S % 26-27 27-28 q7 97*-28 26 25-26 27-06 27-28 96 28-30 26-28 08-30 29-30 29-31 26829 *-30 26 27 27-M 27.9 3A.2 ! Average weekly o0h4ak place mrnts 2/ ___ V Friday of given wevk. V/ At mid-month. V/ 9-12 weeks previous in : Mil, l. Mi Mi1. 9.0 M1i,. wi... MiU. ,9.6 10.8 1 epeciali ed areas. i 1 m U , l m I ,, u I I I I . II | ..- li- - - .. -_ ; - 16 - 11.6 11.7 18.0 12.1 PES-164 Price Control Pe-ulations End Egg price controls administered by the Office of Price Stabiliza- tion were terminated on February 12, 1953. Since egg prices were below parity levels except during months when egg prices were seasonally lower than the base prices of the freeze period (December 19, 1950-January 25, 1951), the controls did not directly bear apon farmers' egg prices. Controls on dressed chickens and turkeys were terminated on the same day. During the control period, the price of chickens had never risen above 93 percent of parity. Turkeys were 98 percent of parity in mid-December 1951, but prices declined after Christmas and no dollars- and-cents price order was issued. The price of ducks, for which no parity equivalent is computed, was controlled by a separate order, independent of the General Ceiling Price Regulation, The duck order was #79, effective from November 9, 1951 to September 25, 1952. Table 10.- Broilers: Monthly averages of weekly placements, specified reporting areas, January-March 1953 with comparisons :___~~Averageof weekly lacrements during month Area :-- 2-9.52- Jan, : Feb. : Mar. : Oct. : Nov. : Dec., Jan. Feb. : Mar. : Thous. Thous. Thus. Thous. Thous, Thous. Thous. Thous. Thous. E. Connecticut Del-Mar-Va. Shenandoah Valley N. Car.-Cent-West Georgia Arkansas Texas Alabama Mississippi Florida Indiana 270 452 2,881 3,671 751 956 874 984 : 2,357 2,792 1,300 1,344 1,447 1,611 477 554 621 741 : 213 249 : 717 798 360 255 3,162 2,551 1,023 654 1,023 626 2,813 2,166 1,283 818 1,587 1,211 569 460 842 593 224 212 887 626 328 309 2,786 3,280 859 867 814 845 2,093 2,101 ..836 1,046 1,372 1,279 519 529 658 632 226 237 736 687 337 403 1/ 478 3,296 2,812 3,072 815 872 1,013 970 1,008 1,070 2,315 2,554 2,743 998 1,007 1,060 1,238 1,390 1,441 513 586 698 709 780 846 222 236 228 719 769 862 Total, 11 areas :11.908 14,13, 13,?73 10,172 11 227 11i812 12.132 12.4171/13N.511 Oregon W. Connecticut Maine California 96 121 126 : --- --- 119 466 75 79 537 86 70 414 75 72 511 1/ Beginning March 1, includes West Connecticut. 2/ Two weeks only. 92 124 544 987 101 96 499 1,188 2/10 ---B 523 1,219 - 17 - MARCH-APRIL 1953 18- Table f. Turkeys: Average live weight, sales, farm conumption, and value, available data. 1930 to date Year . : 1 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 : 1940 : 3 1941 : 3 1942 1943 : 1944 : 1945 : 3 1946 : 3 1947 : 1948 : 2 1949 : 1950 : 1951 2/ 2Inaluding fr / vised. 3/ Preliminary. Average live wig Average live weig par tur-keAy sold lens Tom : A- a 14.5 14.7 14.8 14.9 L1.9 17.9 14.9 12.1 18.1 15.1 12.7 19.1 15.9 L3.0 19.6 16.3 12.9 19.5 16.2 13.2 20.4 16.8 13.5 21.4 17..4 63.9 22.2 18.0 13.8 22.5 18.1 .4.0 22.6 18.3 4.2 23.3 18.8 L.4 23.0 18.6 3.6 22.2 17.9 1.3 23.8 1/16.7 rsre at an average weglht hit Total consumed .Total sold,: on farm, where All :live weight: produced, live ; : night 13.4 13.6 13.8 14.0 14.1 509 17 h96 15 527 13 490 12 589 10 715 12 710 12 631 12 549 11 718 12 797 11 911 11. of 7.5 pos da which wight w f wl as reported. for the first tim for 1952. Table 12. Turkeys: Numbers on farm January 1, numbers raised, sold, consumed on farm where produced, and total slaughter, available data 1930 to date Numbers on farm January 1 : Conesumd on Year : Haimed Sol : farm wheze : Total : Breeders others : produd slaughter : Thoo d 'ousaaoa thooun d Thousands Thousanda Thousands 1930 17,41.9 15,999 1,704 17,703 1931 : 18,2k9 15,716 1,519 17,295 1932 : 22,333 19,393 1,665 21,058 1933 23,241 21,733 1,623 23,356 1934 : 21,702 20,615 1,505 22,120 1935 : 20,821 18,827 1,428 20,255 1936 27,981 25,530 1,"85 27,015 1937 : 3,L81 2,877 25,755 24,227 1,h25 25,652 1938 3,222 2,8714 26,887 24,861 1,291 26,152 1939 : 3,914 2,575 33,587 29,821 1,297 31,118 19o0 : ,607 3,962 34,047 33,778 1,170 34,908 194 : 3,86k 3,329 32,902 31,209 996 32,205 191. : k,003 3,h82 32,805 32,420 824 33,2k4 1913 : 3,98 2,616 32,309 30,278 747 31,085 1944 k,29k 3,135 35,616 31,749 617 35,396 1945 : ,606 2,597 .2,900 40,999 691 11,690 1946 : I,8,1 3,021 k0,12 1 ,o030 699 11,729 197 : 3,779 2,100 33,975 34,938 675 35,613 1948 2,537 1,122 31.5. 30,017 666 30,683 1949 3,148 1,471. 41,266 39,841 676 t0,517 1950 : 3,270 1,851 43,792 42,918 6h8 43,566 1951 : 3,301 1,790 52,76 50,853 64h 51,497 1952 / : 3,828 1,994 60,1h6 59,996 715 60,711 1953 V3/ 3,446 1,893 1/ Slaughter la the sum of sales and consumption am thw here produced. The difference between raised and slaughter- ed Is accounted for by (a) difference in January 1 inventories, and (b) death losses. 2 Reailed.. 3/ Preliminary. E Value of: W weighted annual. : Total ;WlahUl Sales : slaughter, : average price :plus hom :11ie weight : received per Sales : con- pound : ctlon Cnts Mil.dol. Mlldol. 16 51 42 46 38 hl 36 38 42 15 52 56 62 65 63 67 66 69 71 74 526 15.4 78 81 511 19.9 98 101 530 27.5 115 148 502 32.6 165 161 595 34.0 199 202 727 33.7 2k1 05 752 36.3 269 273 606 36.5 232 236 561 k6.8 257 263 760 35.2 263 267 808 32.8 262 266 922 37.A 311 345 Table 13.- Turkeys: Production, disposltlon, an related data, by States and divisions, 195? :Sales : Coneaud on Valu of : umber : Average live : : farms whe re : Avrag' : Number State on : iht per brd : : produced Ara sales : on and :farm, : Number : l atu: l : price, : plus farms, division January: raed and light: All Number Weight per Sale : ha : December :: Spber oWeight pound' : 1, 1952: vight : turkeys: : : con- : 31, 1952 : :tarkeysa 1 : gumption: ThoUT. hMOU. Maine 18 '161. New Hampshire : 11 151 Vermont 114 138 Masesachuatte 5 653 Rhodae Island 5 55 Connecticut : 31 370 ow York : 122 94.3 Nev Jersey : 60 384 Pennsylvania : 231 2,180 North Atlantic : 549 5,3411 hio, : 1il 1,878 IDtisa : 50 1,795 Illinole : 79 999 Michigan : 120 1,097 Wisconsin : 57 1,349 Emat North Central : L50 7,118 Minnesota : 281 5,201 Ioa : 161 3,115 Mieourl : 319 1,572 North Dkota : 34 526 South Dakota : 9 370 Hebraska : 1 862 Kanss : 140 742 West Worth Central : 1,025 12,688 Delaware : 15 360 Marylad : 72 529 Virginia : 319 5,762 West Virginia : 66 1,800 north Carolina : 57 1,018 South Carolina : 103 1,252 Georgia 51 620 Florda : 27 181 South Atlantic : 710 11,522 eatuky : 66 412 Tennesee : 25 211 Alaba : 35 308 Mimslmsippi : 31 131 Arkansas : 3 550 Loulaslm : 21 122 Okl ham : 89 690 Texas : 519 3,703 South Central : 859 6,127 . ontaem : 16 140 Idaho 30 183 Wycmng : 18 150 Colorado : 60 723 Now IMaloo : 12 68 Arinma : 17 98 Utah 83 1,971 Nevada 3 27 Washington : 1 1,223 Oregon : 352 2,1341 Californe : 1,494 10,933 Western : 2,229 17,650 United States 5,822 60,446 Thoua. Thous. Thone. Thone. Lb Thoos lb. ThouA. lb. Cents dol. dol. nous. 7.0 9.9 465 1,601 1 7.5 17.1 150 2,565 2 7.5 18.5 136 2,516 3 8.0 14.7 642 9,437 5 8.0 16.3 54 880 1 8.0 16.4 367 6,019 Is 9.0 16.9 914 15,447 20 8.0 15.6 365 5,694 7 8.0 14.0 2,142 29,988 37 7.9 14.7 5,235 77,150 80 7.8 17.6 1,830 32,208 2h. 7.5 16.0 1,782 28,512 14 6.9 17.0 979 16,643 17 9.6 17.7 1,066 18,866 14 8.0 18.2 1,338 24,352 10 7.7 17.2 6,995 120,583 79 7.7 17.8 5,201 92,578 22 7.5 19.5 3,402 66,339 11 6.8 17.8 1,592 28,338 11 6.0 16.6 510 8,466 15 --- 17.2 360 6,192 10 7.5 18.3 858 15,701 6 6.0 17.0 719 12,733 12 7.1 18.2 12,672 230,347 87 8.0 14.2 353 5,013 3 7.0 15.1 518 7,822 15 7.0 10.7 5,834 62,424 25 8.0 13.0 1,778 23,114 8 7.4 16.6 999 16,583 14 7.9 16.8 1,248 20,966 12 8.0 14.8 595 8,806 20 8.4 15.9 165 2,624 11 7.3 12.8 11,490 147,352 108 8.0 17.3 409 7,076 10 7.0 16.3 195 3,178 14 9.0 14.2 286 4,061 25 8.5 13.2 113 1,492 23 7.4 15.5 532 8,246 12 7.0 13.2 104 1,373 17 8.0 15.8 685 10,823 17 8.0 17.4 3,511 61,091 100 8.0 16.7 5,835 97,340 218 8.8 16.3 131 2,135 12 7.0 17.3 182 3,149 6 --- 16.7 1.8 2,472 7 6.0 11.6 721 12,690 13 7.0 17.1 60 1,026 8 8.0 17.8 94 1,673 8 8.0 19.4 1,995 38,703 9 --- 20.0 25 500 3 7.5 18.8 1,194 22,447 11 6.8 18.6 2,171 40,381 11 7.8 18.7 11,048 206,598 55 7.6 18.7 17,769 331,774 143 7.5 16.7 59,996 1,004,546 715 10 38.7 1,782 1,786 15 3h 41.8 1,072 1,086 16 56 42.7 1,074 1,098 13 74 43.6 h,115 h,1h7 59 16 44.7 393 00oo 5 66 44.7 2,690 2,720 29 338 43.6 6,735 6,882 128 109 15.7 2,602 6,652 70 518 41.7 12,505 12,721 224 1,221 42.7 32,968 33,492 559 h22 34.6 11,11J. 11,290 161 224 35.0 9,979 10,057 46 289 36.8 6,125 6,231 79 248 35.5 6,698 6,786 132 182 36.5 8,888 8,95" 57 1,365 35.5 42,834 h3,318 475 392 31.9 29,532 29,657 244 214 32.5 21,560 21,630 15) 196 33.0 9,352 9,417 271 249 32.8 2,777 2,859 34 172 32.3 2,000 2,056 48 110 33.9 5,323 5,360 31 204 31.5 4,011 4,075 115 1,537 32.4 74,555 75,051- 907 43 41.3 2,070 2,088 18 226 42.2 3,301 3,396 65 268 33.8 21,099 21,190 207 104 36.1 8,344 8,382 79 232 36.4 6,036 6,120 60 202 36.8 7,715 7,789 90 296 38.1 3,355 3,468 5h 175 41.6 1,092 1,165 31 1,546 36.0 53,012 53,598 604 173 34.8 2,462 2,522 56 228 32.1 1,020 1,093 26 355 38.2 1,551 1,687 30 304 35.4 528 636 24 186 32.3 2,663 2,723 47 224 44.8 615 715 21 269 31.0 3,355 3,438 72 1,740 30.6 18,694 19,226 615 3,479 31.7 30,888 32,040 891 196 34.7 741 809 13 104 35.4 1,115 1,152 24 117 33.4 826 865 13 229 35.9 4,556 4,638 48 137 35.0 359 407 11 142 35.1 587 637 12 175 30.0 11,611 11,663 48 60 31.1 157 176 2 207 30.5 6,846 6,909 158 205 29.7 11,993 12,054 289 1,028 31.0 64,045 64,364 1,285 2,600 31.0 102,836 103,674 1,903 11,748 33.6 337,093 341,176 5,339 / InluAine BsltBT lle aall Whites aat other breeds. UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA II I IIl I Il II llll Ill Il I 111 llllllll l ll U. S. Department of Agriculture Penalty for private us' 3 1262 08904 0256 Washington, D. C. of postage W300 OFFICIAL BUIIIHESS BAE-PES-164-4-53- 4400 Permit No. 1001 LIBRARY - -!.'.':'? DEPT. 5-16-49 FN-6 GAI:.', LLE. S''.: . - --- -- --- ---- 20 ------------ -- - Table 14. Measures of e Tg production efficiency by flock size, Indiana, 1950 SData for cover chart) : Flock size, layers :Average Item : Under : : 200 and : in 100 :100-199 : over :sample (A) Raw data from source 1/ Number of flocks in sample : 15 46 24 Average number of layers per flock : 60 129 272 157 Average annual production per layer, eggs 116 139 165 142 Man-hours: Per layer : 2.93 2.38 1.51 2.21 Per 100 eggs : 2.53 1.71 .92 1.56 (B) Conversions of data (1) Productivity per 100 man-hours : Number of layers tended : 34.1 42,0 66.2 45.2 Number of eggs produced :3,953 5,848 10,870 6,410 (2) Conversion of data to percentage of : average Annual production, eggs per layers: 82 98 116 100 Number of layers tended per 100 man-hours : 75 93 146 100 Number of eggs produced per 100 man-hours : 62 91 170 100 1i/ Hecht, Reuben W., "Labor and Power Used for Farm Enterprises, Indiana, 1950", F. M. 100 BAE, USDA, December 1952, p. 30. |