Poultry and egg situation

71,.' a l


79


THE


BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMIC
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRI


PES- 163


The seasonal distribution of annual output of
eggs is a measure of the degree to which egg orn-
duction in a State or region is commercialized: the


NEG. 49026-XX BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
larger the proportion of the output occurring in the
summer and fall, the greater the degree of speciali-
zation.


FOR RELEASE
FEB. 27, A. M.


SUMMER AND FALL EGG
PRODUCTION
As Percentage of Annual Total, 1952


U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE







- 2 -


-B PO.Oe AID 1D Bs13 l UI AT A UEW


: 2

Ite: unit



: :-

Tam prolaotje- ........: MKL. doc. :

Average number of
layer on fam .......: Jaolam-

Monthly egg pro-
duction per layer...... Alp

Appeent civilian per
capital disappearance ..: lp

frza eom proaMucton .. N1. lb.

DBri A prodctain ...: 1. lb.

Price received by
tfaum ............... CE.pr do&.:

Price received by
fmes a W U It-
gA of p t ....... .. urut

etail price (Mu) .....:Ct.pr dos.

Ig- tl t prie atio ...: Lb. fee

Stotas :

1heU ................ibou.cm :

rossn ............... : l. lb. :
CIlkm hcaheda by cm- 2
menal tetarle ... : Mlio

Pallnte not yet of :
laying aw am f : M:llme :

m price of poultry :
ntlan ................ DoLpa-r an:




Price received by ft :
erE for chickens, 1ive :Ct. per It
Brollers ..............: do.
Fam chickens ......... do.
All chickens ..........: do.

Price received by farm- :
ers for all chickens as:
a percentage of parity : BoEWat

-Btall price of ahiacmm;.
dresaed (ME) ......... Ct. per lb.:

Prime received by :
faoux for aIWI 2
liv .................. :Ct. per b.:
:
Stooeks: :

Poultry, 0oai g :2
tou r .............: M1I. lb.

Ta"key ..............: M11. lb.

Chlo~m-feed price I
ratio ................. Lb. fd

Tdaey-feae price rtio : Lb. eeA

Aveag weekly place- :
Wat of chik.t in
U broler area ...... M5.loca


a : : I: I : a I

r 'A. :,W 1952 1953 w :-P' 1952 1953 'n
: -to 1 :-5 2 1: da/ 3/ a; nt t aum
-l"192-2-. 5 -/-- :. j -i -- 5 --___t:__a_


I Except where data are for November or December, In which cases the averages
2 Except where data are for ovember or December, La which cases the year is 1
3/ Except where data are for November or December, in which cases the year is 1


370.7 k46.8 453.4 )
:)
:)
398.3 384.k 375.9 : )

11.2 lk.0 11.5


In coming mmit, lika,
to be below year aeo


Dec. 309.0 399. 1421.9 :: Jn-


Dec. 395.0 388.0 38.3 :: Jan.


Dec. 9.A 12.A 13.2 :: JIm.


lOV. --- 31.5 32.6 :: Dec.

Kob. 2.3 2.6 4.5 :: Dec.

ho. 7.3 O.k 1.0 :: De-.


Dec. 16.8 51.1 k6.6 :: Jan-



Dec. 92 83 79 :: Jan.

S,. 62.1 78.0 72.3 Dec.

Dec. 4l.9 12.1 11. :: Jan.



Jan. 1 329 141 153 : Feb. 1

Jan. 1 102.3 67.2 50.2 ::Feb. 1


De:. 11.3 87.0 91.3 ::Jan.


Jdn. 1 53.1 32.0 21.8 :: Fet. I


Dec 3.22 1.22 1.08 :: Jan.






Dec. 28.0 25.7 29.6 :: Jnn.
Dec. 23.7 23.3 22.1 :: Jan.
Dec. 25-.0 2h.7 26.1 :: Jan.



Dec. 106 78 83 :: Jan.


Nov. 17.9 50.1 54.8 :: Dec.



Dec. 34.7 39.6 31.6 :: jan.



Jan. 1 182.5 195.1 132.0 :: Feb. 1

Jan. i 80.1 106.8 1k6.6 :: Feb. 1


Dec. 8.0 5.9 6.5 :: Jan.
II
Dec. 11.0 9.1 8.5 :: jan.


Dec. .- 10.7 11.7 Jan.


27.8 28.7 28.2 :)
24.4 24.9 23.3 :) early at year-ego leels
25.9 27.1 26.5 :) despite lower beea price


106 89 85

46.6 48.5 55.2



33.1 37.1 33.6


Beflcts reord-lar g
1952 turkey crop


162.1 183.6 117.1 2)
88.6 116.4 142.6 dc se


8.1 6.4

10.k 8.7


:3 February, Mtrch likely to
--- 9.3 117 reach yer o levels

are for the year 1941-50.
951.


JAm.-B. 1953


-- 34.3 35.6 :
:) Breaking beginning early
2.1 1.6 5.0 :) an account of lue stocks,
:good dema
6.7 0.4 0.7 2


39.8 L0.5 45.8


9k 81 101 t c dom
em prices b tayd up
62.1 69.6 6.24

12.1 9.5 11.3



30o 238 U11

78.9 53.1 3b.9 2


63.6 122.7 127.3 flock repisaost


28.3 22.6 17.1


3.27 1.26 4.06


I


'





PES-163


- -


THE POULTRY AND EGG SITUATI 0 N
Approved by the Outlook and Situation Board, February 18, 1953
SUiTiARPY

Egg production will rise seasonally in the next month or 2, but the
4 percent reduction from last year in the number of potential layers now on
farms will hold output below a year earlier. With demand from commercial egg
breakers and consumers expected to continue strong, prices through the first
6 months of 1953 probably will be higher than in the same period of 1952.

The situation later, particularly toward the end of the year, will
depend upon the volume of egg production. Output then will be influenced
not only by the likely resumption of the upward trend in rate of lay per
bird, but also by the number of chickens to be raised in 1953.

Farmers reported in February that they intend to raise 4 percent
fewer chickens than in 1952 for laying flock replacement. However, the
egg-feed price relationships in the past few months have been encouraging
to egg producers, and they are likely to continue so. This may induce
farmers to raise more chickens this year than they intended on February 1.
Although the egg-feed price ratlo in January m;-.s below average, it was 19 per-
cent above a year earlier. In past years a marked improvement in the ratio
usually has been accompanied by an increase in the number of chickens raised,

In Janua-- and ear._-- February, egg prices were maintained by the
demand from commercial breakers preparing yolk, albumen, and mixed whole
egg for sale to food manufacturers and processors. The breakers' demand,
stimulated by small storage holdings of frozen egg products, began un-
usually early in the season.

TurKey growers' January intentions were to raise 23 percent fewer
small turkeys in 1953 than in 1952, and 3 percent fewer large turkeys. In
recent years, the turkey crops have been larger than were indicated by
farmers' February intentions. The Department of Agriculture bought about
6 percent (by weight) of the 1952 turkey crop under its surplus removal
program, confining its purchases almost entirely to large turkeys. If the
decline in the production of large turkeys is no greater than indicated by
the intentions, the 1953 production of large turkeys will still exceed the
1952 supply of large turkeys after allowing for those bought by USDA.

Cold-storage holdings of turkey this winter are record-large,
although the decline in holdings from December 1 to January 1 was greater
than usual. There was a further decline during January. February 1 has
been the usual peak for storage holdings of turkey in recent years. Stor- .
age holdings of chicken, now past their seasonal peak, are less than to-
thirds of last year.

Production of broilers will exceed a year earlier in the. first ...
quarter of 1953. But outpu- during the second quarter is likely .to b. ...
below last year because broiler chick placements in February-Marh : "SW:+.|w "
not likely to show the tremendous increase of a year earlier. Cone-"
quently, broiler prices are expected to be steadier than in the fil.*
half of last year.


__~I~





JAN.-FEB. 1953


REVIEW AND OUTLOOK

Higher Egg-Feed Price Ratio May
Alter Farmers' Plans to Raise Chickens

Farmers intend to raise 4 percent fewer chickens than in 1952 for
laying flock replacement, according to a survey made about February 1.
If egg prices continue as favorable as they were to mid-February, farmers
are likely to raise more chickens than their February intentions indicate.

Egg prices currently are higher, and feed prices lower, than a year
earlier. Consequently the egg-feed price ratio is now more favorable to
producers than it was at this time in 1952: in January 1953, the egg-feed
price ratio--the number of pounds of poultry ration that could be bought
with 1 dozen eggs--was 11.3; in January 1952 it was 9.5. In the months
after January, the 1953 monthly egg-feed price ratios will fall as the egg
price declines to its seasonal low point, but the ratio is not likely to
reach the 1952 low of 8.0.

In past years combinations of egg and feed prices such as those of
the past few weeks, and those which are expected through the important
months of the hatching season, have resulted in increases from the year
before in the size of the hatch.


- 4 -







Table 1.- Egg-feed price ratio, chickens raised, and pullets on
farms, January 1, United-' States, 1925 to-d.ate

;.E f ul :. Percentage of preceding Yatr
Egg-f Nd Pullets Pu.t
Year.- price ratio. chickenss on farms Intentions EEgg-feed farms
weighted .raised January 1 to raise price :hca arms
average*) following chickens ratio*- : se .f lJ ngy

Pounds Milis M llion Prcent Percent Percent Percent


1925. : 12.9 ..
1926 4 4 -3.5 ,
1927 : 13. 4 .
1928 .12.2
1929 13-1..

1930 : 13.8
1931 : .10.6
1932 : 11.6
1933 : 14.3
193 : 10.9
1935 ., 11.i .
1936 : 13.1
1937 : 9.4
--1938 : -11.4
-.1939. : 12.6

1940 : 10.4
"1941 : 11.5
1942 .: 13.2
:1943 141.7
1944 : 11.2
1945 : 12.8
1946 : 11.9
!1947 : 11.3
1948 : 9.8
:11949 : 12.7


*1950
1951
1952
1953


679
718
750
.. 700
751

777
709
.736
750
644
658
715'
601
651
697

634
745 *
844
1,001
832
1/890.
1/738
1/719
1/615
1/705.


9.6 .1/635
11.4 1/663
9.0(11.1) /617
3/(11.6)


244
230
237 .
'238
212
226

15

. 254 .-


240
278
- 319
350
301
322
281
278 '
258
287


264 .
276
255


"'96
*109
S'.112
116
83
.96
86
94
80
107


.. 102
o105.
.. 99
91
107

105
77
S. 109
123:
76
105
115
72
121
111

83
S 111

111
76
114
93
95
87
130


.88
96
90
96


76
119
7Q


-103
106
.104
93
107


164
91
104
102
86
102
S109l
84
108
107

.91
1'.118
113.
119
83
107
83
97
86
115


94

100
89
107
110
86
113 -
o05
. 94-; .
116
115 .
_110
86
.. 107.::
67
S. 99.
93
111


S 92.
105
S-92.


Revised.
Preliminary.
For 1953, November through January;


comparable 1952 in parentheses..
~ ~~ ..*-;.;


Weights are as follows: Preceding November, 1; preceding December, ;
January, 3; February, 4; March, 5; April, 3; May, 1.


L r .. !.


.1.( i .


.. ~ i.


PES-163


- 5 -





JAN.-FEB. 1953


The monthly reports of hatchery production, and, beginning in
April, of young chickens on farms will indicate whether or not farmers
are conforming, until those dates, to their February intentions to raise
fewer chickens. In the interpretation of these reports, it should be
remembered that the 1952 hatch was early. As late as April the numbers
of young chickens on farms were ahead of the year before, but the early-
season excess was more than offset by sharp declines in hatchings in May
and later.

The intentions to raise fewer chickens are most pronounced in the
East and West North Central States with indicated declines of 10 and 8 per-
cent respectively. These States accounted for almost half of the chickens
raised in 1952. In other regions the intentions range from 1 or 2 percent
decreases South Central, South Atlantic, and New England States and
no change Middle Atlantic and Pacific States to a 6 percent intended
increase in the Mountain States.

A slight increase in the percentage of chicks to be bought as
sexed pullets is indicated by farmers' February 1 intentions.


Table 2.- U. S. average egg price, value of poultry ration, and egg-feed
price ratio, October 1950 to date


: 1950-51 _: 1951-52 :____ _
: Egg Value of: Egg- : E6g : Value of: Egg- : Egg
Month : price,: poultry : feed : price,: poultry : feed ; price,
: per ; ration, : price : per : ration, : price per
: dozen : per cwt.: ratio : dozen : per cwt.: ratio cozen
: Cents Dollars Pounds Cents Dollars Pounds Cents

Oct. : 43.2 3.60 12.0 55.6 4.04 13.8 50.3

Nov. : 45.8 3.63 12.6 56.5 4.12 13.7 51.9


Dec. : 57.7

Jan. : 42.6

Feb. : 41.4

Mar. : 43.7

Apr. : 43.2


June 44.7

July : 46.6


3.74

3.89

3.96

4,00

3.99


3.95

3.95

3.96


15.4 51.1

11.0 40.5

10.5 34.7

10.9 34.0

10.8 35.2

11.2 34.2

11.3 35.7

11.8 43.3

12.6 48.2


4.22

4.26

4.25

4.24

4.21L

4.23

4.21

4.18

4.24


12.1 46.6

9.5 45.8


1952-3
SValue of: Egg-
: poultry : feed
: ration, : price
: per .vwt.: ra tio
Dollars Poujds


4.17

4.09

4.08

4.06


12.1


8.0

8.3


10.3

11.4


13.8 48.7 4.28 11.4


May


45.2


49.6


Aug. :

Sept.:


- 6 -


8.5


55.0 3.99






PES-163


Table 3.- Chickens raised, and intentions to raise chickens, by regions, 1913 to date


" : Chickens raised.


Percent-
Year age of
:Number: previous
S : year


Itetios Chickens raised:
Intentions :
to raise
chickens as: :Percent-
a percent- :: Percent-
age of :Number: ae ous
previous : prevou
year : : year


Intentions Chickens raised.
to raise : :V :
chickens as: :


a percent-
age of
previous
year


: :
:BNumber:
: :
: :


Percent-
age of :
previous:
year :
:*


Intentions
to raise
chickens as
a percent-
age of
previous
year


SMil. Pet


Pct.


New England


West North Central


Mil. PCt.


Pct.


Middle Atlantic


South Atlantic


Mil. Pot.


Pet.


East North Central


East South Central


1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949

1950
1951
1952
1953



1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949


West South Central


1950
1951
1952
1953


I/ Revised.

2/ Preliminary.


1943 :
1944 :
194.5 1/:
1946 :/-
1947 1/:
1948 1/:
1949 /:

1950 1/:
1951 2/:
1952 20,
1953 :


Mountain


Pacific


- 7 -





JAN.-FEB. 1953


Table 4.- Sexed chicks; Farmers' purchases, 1942-52, and intentions, 1953,


: Chickens : Percentage
:raised by :of farmers'
Year : farmers for :baby chick
:laying flock : purchases
: replacement : made as
: 1/_ : sexed pullet
: Millions Percent


Chickens : Percentage
: raised by : of farmers'
Year : farmers for : baby chick
: laying flock : purchases
: replacement : made as
: I/ : sexed pullets
Millions Percent


1942 : 844 21 1948 : 2/615 30
1943 1,001 17 : 1949 : 2/705 31
1944 832 20 : 1950 : 2/635 32
1945 2/890 18 : 1951 :663 33
1946 : /738 22 : 1952 :617 37
1947 2/719 26 : 1953 : /38


1/ Excluding specialized broilers.
/ Revised.
/ Intentions.


Reductions Intended for 1953 Turkey Crop

Turkey growers intend only a moderate reduction of their 1953 out-
put from the record-high level of 1952. In January, their intentions
were to reduce output of heavy breed turkeys by 3 percent from the 1952
level, and to cut small-breed birds by 23 percent. These intentions
average out to an 8 percent intended cut in number of birds, and about a
6 or 7 percent reduction in the number of pounds that would be produced.

In past years, the turkey crops have usually been larger than
were indicated by January intentions (table 7)- In specific years the
differences between intentions and actual crops have been variously attri-
buted to favorable turkey or feed price developments during the hatching
season, plentiful supplies of reasonably priced poults,and freely-available
credit. If no such favorable factors occur this spring, and If the intended
3 percent cut materializes, production of heavy breed birds would still
exceed the "free-market" supply of large-breed turkeys that remained from
the 1952 crop after the Department of Agriculture had bought 48 million
pounds for surplus removal.

The possibility for variation between January intentions and later
performance is greater for small turkeys than for the large breeds. Breeds
such as the Beltsville Small White mature faster than do Bronze turkeys,
and a larger proportion of them are sold when immature. Therefore, their
production cycle is much shorter than for standard size birds. Also, the
White breeder hens lEy more eggs than the bronze birds. In addition, some
of the hens from late-1952 hatchings could presumably be held back from
slaughter in order to increase the egg supply for that breed, should the
demand for poults be stimulated by the current favorable prices for small
turkeys.


- 8-


*
*




PES-163


In the Shenandoah Valley of Virginia and West Virginia, an impor-
tant area for the production .of small turkeys, recent hatchings have shown
a sharp decline from a year ago. From August 9, 1952 to February 14, 1953
48 percent fewer egcs were set in incubators than a year earlier. All
the turkeys grown from such settings will be marketable in 1953-. In
1951-52, egg settings in the comparable period, were 33.percent of the
12-month tot4l..

The prospective limited supplies of fresh small turkeys from the
Shenandoah Valley are likely to maintain prices for those birds for the
next few months. The prices offered farmers there in mid-February--about
42 cents per pound--were considerably above those received for the bulk
of the 1952 output. If the price holds for some months at the early-Feb-
ruary level, it may induce a change in farmers' plans, especially when
considered with the reductions in feed prices since last fall.

The intended 3 percent decline in the output of standard-size
turkeys is relatively small in view of last fall's turkey prices, and
the resulting sale to the Government of 48 million pounds of eviscerated
turkey for surplus diversion. This quantity, practically all of which
cars from the large breeds, was about 6 percent of the weight of the total
1953 turkey slaughter, and a somewhat larger percentage -of the output of
the large breeds.

The most consistent State-by-State response toward an.intended re-
duction in turkey numbers was in the Western Region, where an average
decrease of 15 percent is indicated. Despite the increase in the popu-
lation on the Pacific Coast, that region remains a surplus producing area.
The freight costs from the coast to Eastern markets put Western producers
at a disadvantage of 3 or 4 cents per pound of -dresced turkey, relative
to Atlantic seaboard States.

The East North Central States intend no change, and the West North
Central States a.3 percent increase from 1952 in-their 1953:turkey out-
put.. Thq 8 percent increase intended in Minnesota would amount to about
400 thousand birds. It is in contrast to a December 1952 survey of Minne-
sota turkey hatcheries, who reported a decline of 9 percent from a year
earlier in the number of turkey breeders in hatchery supply flocks.

The USDA report of turkey breeder hens on hand January 1 indi-
cates a 10 percent decline from a year earlier. Anticipating a change
of about that magnitude on the basis of an earlier private survey, the
National Turkey Federation estimated that by late December "testing (had)
been done or arranged for enough breeding hens to produce as large, or
a larger, crop of heavy turkeys in 1953 than the record 1952 crop". This
estimate follows from the rapid tapering-off of turkey hatching toward-
the end of the 1952 season, and the incomplete use of the potential supply
of hatching eggs.
i" *


- 9 -




JAN.-FEB., 1953 10 -

Table 54- Intentions to raise turkeys., 1953, and..turkeys raised and
breed distribution, 1951 and 1952, by regions

._.. :_ .... Region .

Item Unit, .North EaSt -West South Southi States
Atlan-: North ; North : Atlan- oentral:Western:
tic Central: Central: tic :en a.

Intentions to :Percent-:
raise turkeys, : age of
1953 9 1952 : 9, ;100 103 .84 91 85 1/92
Turkeys raised in::
1952 : Mil. 5.2 7.1 12.5 11.0 6.0 17.2 59.0
1951 : Mil. : .4.3 6.0 12.3 7.8 5.4 16.3 52.3

Percentage of
B.S.W. 2/
turkeys in .
total raised :
1952 : Percent: 23.5 18.2 16.3 49.7. 22.7 17.7 24.5
1951 : Percent: 23.6 14.7 14.6 51.0 17.9 14.2 21.0

By breed classifications: standard sizes, 97 percent; small breeds, 77 percent.
/ Beltsville Small Whites and other small-breeds.


Table 6.- Eviscerated turkey; USDA contracts to purchase, for surplus removal from
1952 crop, by States and intended.month of delivery

~: .1952 : .. 1953" :
State 1/ : : : : : : Total
tate October : November December : January : February : March :

: Thous. Thous, Thous. Thous. Thous. Thous. Thous.
: lbs. l ibs. lbs. lbs. lbs. Ibs. lbs.

California : 1,200 1,596 3,030 809 2,293 150 9,078
Illinois : 74 390' 2,040 38 2,542
Iowa 60 60
Kansas .: 210 60 90 150 360 870
Minnesota : 60 481 2,160 1,681 282 4,664
Missouri : 356 2,553 2,944 210 1,830 300 8,1lj
Nebraska : 495. 1,020 1,443 390 1,206 870 5,424
New York .: 28 240 268
North Carolina: 270 930 420 1,620
Ohio 884 60 1,770 150 2,864
Oklahoma 195 480 270 80 1,025
Oregon : 540 953 1,494 330 93 3,410
South Carolina: 60 300 117 477
Texas : 300 1,170 1,530 360 720 510 4,590
Utah : 90 60 90 150 390
Virginia 840 510 360 60 1,770
Washington : 231 630 861
West Virginia : 30 90 210 330
Total : 3 3 9P032 14 761 2,480 14,2 -1 3 .577 48,436
1 State of intended delivery: not necessarily State where grown or processed.







- 11 -


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JAN.-FEB. 1953


Table 8.- Turkeys raised, and intentions to raise turkeys, by regions, 1938 to date


Turkeys raised : Intentions :Turkeys raised : Intentions :Turkeys raised Intentions
: to raise to raise : to raise
S : Percent-: turkeys as : : Percent-: turkeys as : Percent-: turkeys as
Year : : age of : a percent- : : age of : a percent- : age of : a percent-
:Number: previous: age of :Number: previous: age of :Number: previous: age of
: year :previous : : year previous year :previous
:/ year : / year i:/ year


Mil.




1938 : 1.6
1939 : 1.9

1940 : 1.9
1941 : 2.1
1942 : 2.3
1943 : 2.3
1944 : 2.7
1945 : 3.6
1946 : 3.5
1947 : 3.3
1948 : 3.3
1949 : 3.6

1950 : 3.9
1951 2/: 4.3
1952 2/: 5.2
1953


Pct.


North Atlantic


Pot. Mil. Pct.


East North Central

2.2 106 116
2.6 119 127


5.4 111
6.0 113
7.1 117


Pct. Mil. Pct.


Pct.


West North Central

8.5 117 106
11.4 134 131


11.7
11.2
10.4
9.0
9.8
11.8
11.9
9.6
7.7
10.1

11.1
12.3
12.5


South Atlantic


1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949


: 2.0
: 2.1


1950 5.5
1951 7.8
1952 I/: 11.0
1953 :


South Central

6.2 94 U
6.9 112 1I


4.7 110
5.4 115
6.0 109


Western

6.4 104
8.6 133


8.5
8.9
9.2
10.4
11.7
14.2
11.8
9.6
9.9
13.8

13.2
16.3
17.2


I/ Conmputed from unrounded figures.

2/ Preliminary.


- 12 -




PES-163


Demand for Commercial Breaking
Maintains Egg Prices

By mid-February, seasonal
lowest level since last summer.
about up to the December levels,


declines had brought shell egg prices to the
Through most of January, egg prices had held
despite the seasonal increase in production.


A very narrow price spread between the various grades of eggs was
characteristic in the first month or 6 weeks of 1953. This was due to the
keen demand for eggs for commercial breaking. To early February, New York
spot prices for frozen mixed whole egg had not yet declined appreciably from
the peak reached in January, and breaking activities were reported to be
already well underway in the Midwest. In December, normally a month of very
light activity, commercial breaking of 1952 was 3 times larger than a year
earlier. It was A percent of the calendar 1952 output. while December 1951
had been f of 1 percent of that year's production. On account of the great
activity of breakers in some sections of Iowa, current receipts there were
bringing the same price as top graded eggs, and in New York City on some
days there was only a 4-cent spread between top and ungraded mixed color
Midwestern eggs.

Table 9.- Eggs and products: Prices, mid-December 1952 to date, with comparisons


Description


1952-53


: Dec. : Jan. : Feb. : Dec.
: 15 : 15 : 16 : 15


__ 1951-52


: Jan. : Feb. : Mar.
: 15 : 15 : 15


: Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents


Shell eggs, per dozen
Farm prices:
U. S. average 1/ .........: 46.6
Iowa-"mostly" 2/
Top quality ............ 35-36
Current receipts.......: 31-32
Wholesale prices
New York:
Nearby whites, fancy
heavy wts.............: 55=
Midwestern, Ig.
mixed colors.......... 47
Chicago:
Large, white, extras...:49y-50
Los Angeles:
Consumer grade A....... 53-55
Future contract prices:
Chicago, Sept. delivery: 44.10
Retail prices:
U. S. average (BAE) 4/.: 64.2
New York City / .......: 63.00
Frozen egg, per lb.
New York, carlots
Mixed,whole............ 34-36
Albumen................; 34-36
Yolk.................. : 46-47


y At mid-month. 2/ Friday nearest
/ Average for month. 5/ Average for
Grade A Large and Extra Large.
Ic


45.3


33-4o
35-37


52

474-43

45-46

50-51

47.059


67.00


351-361
34-37
46-47


37-38
35-36


51.1 40.5 34.7 34.0


41-43
35-37


48 56-561 441

49 41
44--45 491-50b- 39,-41

62-64 50-51
49.60 48.30 45.00

69.6 58.8
73.00 59.00


35-36 34--37 32-34
32-36 26Y-29 24-26
47 61-62 59-61


32-33 28-29 30-31
28-30 25-26 3/26-28


39 42


351-36 38-

35-361 37-38

43-44 44-45

42.50 42.90

53.0 51.5
53.00 53.00


27-29
19-21
50-52


26%-30
16P-19
50-52


indicated date. 3/ Complete range of prices.
week including given date; blown or mixed,


-1 -


- 13 -




JAN.-FEB. 1953


- 14 -


Holdings of frozen egg in 35 cities on February 14 were 21 million pounds,
which was less than in any other recent year except 1951. In 1951 the stocks
were as low as 18 million pounds in February. The 35-city low last year was
31 million.
Although the total production on farms has been higher to mid-February
.this year than a year earlier, the receipts in 4 markets and at reported coun-
try points have been lower. On account of the strong demand for eggs by break-
ers and by shippers to areas other than the large northern terminal markets,
the large December and January production was not reflected in New York and
Chicago receipts.
Egg production on farms will.rise to a seasonal peak in March or April,
but that peak will be lower than last year's. This is because.there were 4 per-
cent fewer potential layers on farms on February 1 than a year earlier. This
percentage decline from a year earlier is likely to persist until mid-summer,
and it is not likely to be fully offset by a corresponding increase in the rate
of lay per bird.
Broiler Prices, Placements, Below Year Earlier
After having reached a 4-year high in November, United States average
broiler prices received by producers declined and in mid-January were about the
same as a year earlier. In quoted farm markets the price changes since then
have been mostly downward. During the same period last year the price changes
were moderately upward.
The mid-January and mid-February 1952 prices received by farmers were
respectively 28.7 and 29.3 cents per pound. compared with the 25.9 cent average
for the 3 preceding months. The price rise helped to stimulate the increased
settings of hatching eggs which resulted in record placements in February and
March. As a result, broiler chick placements in 11 areas rose to record highs
of about 14 million per week fcr 4 weeks in February and March. In some areas,
part of the marketing that followed sold as low as 18 cents per pound.
This year the mid-January price of 28.2 cents is only slightly below
last year, but it has not induced the same response in placements as occurred
a year earlier. Despite the reduction in feed prices--the $5 per ton decline
from a year ago in Del-Mar-Va mash prices is equivalent to 3/4 of a cent per
pound gain in the broiler price--the current price has not boosted egg set-
tings. This may have resulted from the fact that prices so far this year are
below the 30-cent average for the last quarter of 1952. A year earlier the
corresponding comparison seemed more favorable to producers.
It does not seem likely that the great bulge in broiler placements that
occurred in February-March 1952, will be repeated in 1953. The situation of
the past few months, when placements have been larger than in the corresponding
months a year earlier, will be reversed. Most of the placements made since the
beginning of October 1952 will .be marketed in 1953, and from the beginning of
October until February 14 there were 10 million more chicks placed in 11 com-
parable areas than had been placed in the corresponding period the year before.
But March 1953 placements are likely to fall bel ow March 1952 by an amount that
will wipe out a large part of this cumulative increase. As a result, by the
end of March the cumulative percentage increase in uhe placement of broilers
intended for 1953 marketing will be rather small, and probably in line with
the 1952 increase, for which complete data will be available in April.
Data so far available for 15 States show that their 1952 broiler output
numbered 8 percent more birds than in 1951. These 15 States accounted for
73 percent of the 1951 broiler output, and 74 percent of the 1950 production.






PES-163


Table 10.- Eggs: Production on farm and receipts at specified assembly plants
and terminal markets, December 1952, with comparisons

1952-53 1951-52
Item Unit .
: Dec. : Jan. Feb. Dec. Jan. Feb. : Mar. Apr.


Index of farm pro-
duction on first
of month


Dec. 1, 1951=100 I.


rerage receipts
?er plant,week
ended on first
Saturday in month

Iowa assemblers
and processors

Eastern auctions
and producers
assembly plants..:


Pacific coast re-
ceiving plants...:


Terminal market
receipts in week
ended on first
Saturday in month


:
:*
:*


Cases:



do.


do.
Tos:


:Thous, :
New York ......... :cases

Chicago...........: do.

Boston ............: do.

Philadelphia ......: do.

Los Angeles.......: do.

San Francisco .....: do.


106 113 123








605 678 864



441 3,222 3,438


435 1,424 1,546







104 90 109

68 62 65 :

29 25 29:

24 21 25:

34 36 35:

17 20 17


100 107 126 138 1i4








677 636 912 1,016 1,091



3,421 2/ 3,118 3,231 2,958


1;433 1;353 3:363 1,564 1,632


90 112 115 16 132


78 63 86 135


24 27 28 27 25

29 32 31 34 29

38 47 41 39 50

19 25 22 21 20


Total,6 markets : do. 276 254 280 : 278 306 323 372 340
r ____ ____ ; __ : :___;___ ______


Number of layers on farms multiplied by eggs per layer.
Not available.


A,

s.


- 15 -


3,


1,






JAN.-FEB. 1953


.n
VI
\%



a






i a
r4 0
m -4











ao

0
k
-4
0 -4











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2 0%


0 0
o 4



























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- 54














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o .14 ..

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0
0
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r4 0.





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I4 -4







-4s




















w -4



-4 0 0%
-4 1" -


- 16 -


m r4 f-CO O 0. 00-405 0i t q b6 Oi--- i cu 4

3 o o co op6 t-as o o b, o 4 01 4-4. 4 4, 4 c ,io l- 0,, 5 0 ,o o0 0 5 01-,
* t-It'rIC0. r4 o01 \ O r.- O 4 i' n 4' O .- I ,fO %4,4 i. c a o n o '0014n mr\- o0
,.. -4 i-r40t- 0%f-0%o 05 BOf-- *t-U\r4. coIr, t%.* -r,-- 0. ',o i--4o



I0 0%00 0 0 ,c,4,,0 1 r- '-f -- 0inIC 0C00 0-W-I00 000
t 00 -,Ii Mn.1 l. 0%-- 0%0)I 0
, .,l o i l. O ,-H- r- H H- r4. 5 CU 01 0 01 0U M0 o05f CM Oi0,cim



t0 0 0 r "0%iNi --.0 i U- I.t" -1 -0 01 I0 5O.-CO0 055.10 I 0000IV C00 IqO
-U C- t- ci--sC Oin-.OC ,- t' 0 :o m 4 Ou0C- -t- % W CO D C f-
0I a 00100 -01010 011, C05 O- 4 o404 Cw i a;oO 3 .; 0; KinQ Co0.
0%3 c I r nt -,C-, o i0 ni o 0uw OCMal0 -t V0c & MinCht 5 %-0!I0






0 -


.... oc, S o, o -a "" 1 g 0o ( .. "
co 0 \ 00 1*> 0 aO 0 cNu 0
a 14 1-rt'>100% 0%05 % Oin 0 04- 4 ) 0asu cr4N i cuor' cu 0cu N 0crCA ouomoC


























o -- --I -4- -4-4-- -4-4-
u 0.o4 .* t-0\ 00 a3 a zCO00i t-O M 0%o M MUD 4
CVon qq,4 qqqqq 4 q-4 ,44
s tC o O\ cb cu MID en 00 01 m r *o %ac
c. 0- A A ir\ 0;9O 5- .-40 05t0- CU *v tCO I













ww n t MN t .t n 54 n0% '00 E-- i t- t















Mf 0 CO. ( 3 M% OD 5% CUO tn. 4
S4 --t -4 5 0 5 05 E-0 5\ "-4
on* I 1 %inf-l-f inlOrt ti-l 0 1 rt% 015 01 i0 01 0in% 9% M.-4IC l-0 0.4555 0f.-I



















a -05 m0 05 0 mr0
I t,,n fM Monn M r-i rlc< o -Ma., re c o cof inm


u4 105- of ofrO ii n 0rt tr\m\0 D t- co c--., c1" -4% -40100 0
0 1 in' r54 r4 r4 I rtI 0I0





.-4.-iwn -4050 -40101 -44> r w4 -4 14 r4 r4

M 14 ri


-P
U
*
















ag

A0
04
0













14
S.
0
0


5.

0

a


13.
0
















p.
a

U
-I
14
a



Sl


0.0
0.0



* 88
3i.
all^






- 17 -


Table 12.- Weekly broiler placements in specialized areas i/; broiler prices and broiler-feed price ratios,
Salisbury, Maryland, 1951 and 1Q52


195
Week Placements, 11 areas
ending :___ C___l: pe
2] Weekly CuMulative


Jan. 5
12
19
26

Feb. 2
9 :
16
23

Mar. 1
8 :
15 :
22
29

Apr. 5
12
19
26

May 3 :
10 :
17
24
31

Jane 7
14
21
28

Jul 5
12
19
26

Aug.2 :
9 :
16
23
30

Sept.6 :
13 :
20 :
27 :

Oct. 4
11 :
18 :
25

Nov. 1
8 :
15
22
29

Dec. 6
13
20
27

Total and:
average :


Thousands

8,805
9,033
8,905
9,756

9,877
10,642
11,299
11,605

11,321
10,970
11,235
11,596
12,211

12,252
12,267
12,164
12,176

12,159
12,247
31,993
12,152
12,141

11, 826
11,619
11,532
11,450

11,139
11,231
10,956
10,528

10,526
10,288
9,644
9,409
9,312

9,074
9,020
9,171
8,976

8,686
8,721
8,796
9,125

9,414
9,451
9,694
10,219
10,703

10,754
10,828
11,158
10,145


ThouBande

8,805
17,838
26,743
36,49?

46,376
57,018
68,317
79,922
91,243
102,213
113,448
125,o04
137,255

149,507
161,774
173,938
186,114

198,273
210,520
222,513
234,665
246,806

258,632
270,251
281,783
293,233

304,372
315,603
326,559
337,087

347,613
357,901
367,545
376,954
386,266

395,340
404,360
413,531
422,507

431,193
439,914
448,710
457,835

467,249
476,700
486,394
496,613
507,316

518,070
528,898
540,056
550,201


Broiler
rice, per :


pound,
Salisbury
Cents

24.2
26.8
25.5
27.8

27.5
28.8
27.9
28.4

28.1
27.3
27.3
28.1
28.0

28.8
29.3
30.1
29.9

30.2
29.h
27.7
27.4
26.3

26.6
28.4
28.6
27.6

27.2
28.8
27.7
28.4

28.4
28.3
28.6
28.1
28.4

28.2
28.5
27.4
26.5

26.0
25.0
24.6
24.0

24.0
24.6
24.7
24.7
23.8

24.4
23,6
23.2
24.1


550,201


: iQ52
: i: Brir : Broller-
Placements, 11 areas r r b
aeens, : lce, per feed price
: Weekly Cuulave u : p-rtio,
Se I I llbiu7 a II s b ur7,


Broi ler-
feed price
rat io,
Salisbury
Lb. feed

4.7
5.2
4.9
5.1

5.3
5.5
5.3
5.3
5.2
5.1
5.1
5.2
5.3

5.5
5.7
5.7
5.7

5.7
5.5
5.2
5.2
5.1

5.1
5.5
5.5
5.3

5.3
5.5
5.3
5.4

5.5
5.4

5.5
5.4
5.,

5.4

5.2
5.0

4.8
4.6
4.6
4.4

4.5
4.6
4.6
4.5
4.3
4.4
4.2
4.2
4.4


Thousands

11,916
12,056
10,632
11,554

I2,546
13,299
14,039
14,144

14,067
14,268
13,791
13.135
12,595

12,449
12,271
12,048
12,096

11,535
11,584
11,491
11,210
10,768

10,770
11,231
11,429
11,380

10,862
10,668
10,194
8,668

8,657
9,449
9,349
8,617
8,554

8,865
9,100
9,054o
9,337
9,521
9,892
9,656
10,237

10,384
10,675
10,809
11,249
11,053

11,421
11,691
11,950
10,770


Thjusande

11,9466
24,0.)2
34,634
46,188

58,734
72,033
86,072
100,216

114,283
128,551
142,342
155,477
168,072

180,521
192,792
204,840
216,936

228,471
240,055
251,546
262,756
273,524

284,294
295,525
306,954
318,334

329,196
339,864
350,058
358,726

367,383
376,832
386,181
394,798
403,352
412,217
421,317
430,371
439,708
449,229
459,121
468,777
479,014
489,398
500,073
51o,882
522,131
533,184
544,605
556,296
568,246
579,016


28.)
28.9-
28. ?
28.9

30.3
30.9
29.8
28.8

28.8
26.1
26.0
27.6
27.0

26.9
26.8
26.2
25.8

25.1
22.6
22.0
25.4
24.8

25.6
25.5
25.0
24.7

24.4
27.3
28.5
28.2

28.6
32.1
32.5
33.4
32.5

31.8
33.0
31.2
30.4

29.5
28.7
28.0
28.2

30.6
32.4
34.7
32.9
32.7

33.8
30.9
27.4
n.a.


5.1 579,016


/ 11 areas: E. Conn., Del-Mar-Va., Shenandoah Valley (Va. and W. Va.), N. Car. (Chatham Wilkes-Buncombe), Oa., Ark.,
Texas, Ind., Miss., Ala., and Fla. North Carolina does not include Central-Western areas for which reporting began
January 1952.
2/ Dates given are for i952. Entries for 1951 are for corresponding weeks.
n.a. Not available.


Lb. feed

3.1
5.2
5.2
5.2

5.2
5.5
5.4
5.2

5.1
4.3
4.7
5.0
4.9

4.8
4.8
4.8
4.8

4.5
4.1
4.0
4.6
4.5

4.6
4.6
4.5
4.5

4.4
4.9
5.1
5.1

5.1
5.8
5.8
5.9
5.7

5.6
5.8
5.5
5.5

5.4
5.3
5.2
5.3
5.8
6.2
6.6
6.3
6.3

6.4
5.8
5.1
n.a.






JAN.-FEB. 1953


Table 13.- Weekly placements of broiler chicks in 11 specialized areas, 1952,
and annual totals, 1951 and 1952


:Del- e: N. Car. : : : :
Week : East : : (Chatham :Geor : Arkan- : Texas : Alaba: Miseis-: Florida Indiana
ar- Valley W e : eorgia : :
ending : Cnn. : Va. I/ (Va..Va.): un : s : ppi:
i: : Buncombe 2/):: :


Thous. Thous.

Jan. 5 : 378 3,323
12 : 347 3,070
19 : 258 2,156
26 : 303 2,739

Feb. 2 : 389 3,389
9 : 477 3,535
16 : 542 3,679
23 : 423 3,729

March 1 : 373 3,847
8 : 16 3,735
15 : 357 3,423
22 351 2,906
29: 308 2,729

April 5 : 381 2,3014
12 : 378 2,446
19 : 354 2,493
26 : 364 2,564

May 3 : 367 2,341
10 : 341 2,490
17 : 367 2,517
24 : 328 2,454
31 378 2,310
June 7 : 332 2,207
14 : 369 2,503
21 : 302 2,519
28 : 315 2,566

July 5 : 351 2,350
12 : 284 2,580
19 : 318 2,371
26 : 246 1,989

Aug. 2 : 219 2,067
9 : 296 2,118
16 : 208 1,992
23 : 210 1,913
30 : 271 2,065

Sept. 6 262 2,105
13 : 228 2,274
20 : 194 2,452
27 222 2,519

Oct. 4 : 195 2,120
11 : 233 2,539
18 : 235 2,652
25 : 265 2,578

Nov. 1 335 2,497
8 292 2,694
15 313 2,752
22 : 377 2,831
29 325 2,882

Dec. 6 : 351 2,979
13 : 274 3,250
20 324 3,382
27 302 3,290

Total 1952 16,630 139,524

Total 1951 15,493 168,973


Thous.

741
738
736
698

873
889
973
998
995
1,016
1,081
1,054
957
985
907
909
932

915
878
854
816
707
823
859
953
851
761
738
835
758
702
747
779
652
660

614
625
615
611

682
574
517
715

817
865
852
893
822

916
938
900
732
42,66

38,936


Thous.
524
623
544
606

649
657
623
683

592
648
647
640
655
671
645
679
650

664
637
6814
680
653

657
681
644
661

654
541
623
496
504
625
560
503
455
500
509
536
531

539
365
360
419

461
462
511
569
579
573
576
600
516

30,362
25,827


ThouB. Thous. Thoua. Thous. Thoue.
2,209 1,284 1,417 471 644
2,294 1,416 1,487 476 642
2,310 1,228 1,411 468 600
2,468 1,281 1,462 497 588

2,503 1,280 1,448 471 645
2,738 1,253 1,580 506 667
2,788 1,385 1,648 575 774
2,926 1,362 1,604 577 772
2,800 1,402 1,666 585 783
2,809 1,292 1,590 611 826
2,792 1,327 1,686 588 788
2,861 1,260 1,590 537 860
2,797 1,260 1,492 547 868

2,788 1,205 1,520 633 955
2,719 1,131 1,499 558 913
2,571 1,123 1,430 643 803
2,574 1,137 1,449 589 786

2,490 1,069 1,360 615 787
2,420 1,113 1,270 583 858
2,446 1,001 1,328 570 811
2,377 860 1,348 577 835
2,366 812 1,227 489 781

2,312 904 1,245 488 775
2,379 939 1,258 500 782
2,390 1,073 1,279 504 747
2,367 1,046 1,317 537 705

2,381 993 1,231 435 746
2,310 959 1,154 416 656
2,179 904 1,113 372 652
1,823 800 722 346 581

1,886 765 903 339 591
2,118 762 1,011 398 580
2,139 868 1,014 466 599
1,874 735 1,027 411 548
1,906 677 986 365 474

2,121 695 978 402 500
1,977 788 1,024 452 508
1,967 577 978 438 545
2,057 667 1,023 446 535

2,176 780 1,022 426 578
2,185 874 1,189 448 678
2,106 714 1,251 464 562
2,198 862 1,242 489 586

2,171 847 1,282 459 549
2,065 792 1,398 524 643
2,126 811 1,319 532 650
2,070 864 1,394 519 675
2,110 854 1,389 505 684

2,o18 996 1,396 557 642
2,105 1,089 1,336 507 671
2,171 1,041 1,356 547 639
2,019 1,022 1,062 516 531

120,752 52,179 67,611 25,974 35,598

100,789 52,244 56,661 19,419 24,804


1/ Del-Mar-Va revised October-December 1951.
2/ Not including CentTal-Weatern Areas for which reporting began January 1952.


Thous.

193
216
206
220

231
226
225
241

221
232
242
209
216
215
220
252
202

218
213
203
222
212
205
203
175
179
187
190
183
148

175
189
207
208
220

225
191
201
199

193
221
204
206

229
231
213
227
228

246
252
232
230

11,051
9,051


Thous.

762
747
715
692

668
771
827
829

803
1,093
860
867
766
792
855
791
849

709
781
710
723
833
822
758
843
836

773
740
64
559
5o6
605
517
536
473
463
524
551
525
501
586
591
677

737
709
730
830
675

747
693
758
550

36,902
38,004


-


- 18 -





- 19 -


More Turkeys, Fewer Chickens in Storage

Although a record high for the month, the February 1 cold-storage
holdings of turkey were lower than the holdings of either December 1, 1952
or January 1, 1953. The February 1 holdings, 142.6 million pounds, included
about 18 million pounds intended for delivery to the Department of Agri-
culture, or already owned by .the Department and not yet delivered to State
and local agencies. After allowance for this quantity, the "commercial"
stocks of turkey were only about 5 percent above a year earlier and con-
aiderably short of the large stocks held on February 1, 1945 and 1946.
(Large stocks also were on hand February 1, 1950, but they included about
9 million pounds of Government-owned price support turkeys.)

The usual seasonal pattern for storage holdings of turkey in recent
years has been that they rise from a low point about September 1 to a peak
about February 1. In each of the last 2 years, this rise has been inter-
rupted in December when turkey consumption exceeded current slaughter.
Consequently, In each of these years turkey holdings were larger on
December 1 than on January 1. However, In each of the past 20 years before
this one there has been a large enough into-storage movement during January
to make the February 1 stocks the peak for the year.

Together with farmers' early marketing of turkeys in 1952, the USDA
surplus removal program for turkeys has been a factor in this changed
seasonal pattern of turkey holdings. The USDA planned to distribute its
stocks promptly upon delivery from vendors. Since over 30 million pounds
of turkey were intended for delivery January and earlier, the program
resulted In substantial withdrawals from storage. (Vendors made delivery
of the turkey while it was in storage.) When contracts under the program
were closed in late January, they totaled 48 million pounds of eviscerated
turkey, as shown in table '6.

From the beginning of this year, the Dairy and Poultry Market News
Service has released a weekly report of holdings of turkey in 35 cities,
but the report has not been available long enough to permit its use as a
basis for making Judgments about total U. S. stocks.

As the result of a survey undertaken by the Institute of American
Poultry Industries, a breakdown is available of the storage stocks, of
turkeys in the United States for September 30, 1952, and January 31, 1953.
The breakdowns are:

Percent of total holdings, by weight
Sept. 30, 1952 Jan. 31, 1953

Eviscerated tom turkeys 26 55
Eviscerated hen turkeys 37 10
Eviscerated broiler-fryer
type turkeys 7 1
N. Y. dressed tom turkeys 12 26
N. Y. dressed hen turkeys 18 8


PES-163




JAN.-FEB. 1953


Storage holdings of chicken at the beginning of 1953 were the smal-
lest in 4 years, despite the low level of fowl prices. (Fowl are the class
of chickens for which marketing is the most seasonal, and accordingly the
class for which seasonal trends in storage are most pronounced.) On
February 1 the total holdings of chicken l/ were 112 million pounds, com-
pared with 177 million pounds one year earlier.


Table 16. shows that peak storage holdings of chicken as
of total annual production are. declining. A factor in this is
ing proportion of the total output which comes from broilers.
seasonal variation in the output of this class of chicken than
farm chickens.


a percentage
the increas-
There is less
there is for


The years during and immediately after World War II were exceptions
to the trend toward reduced storage of chicken as a percentage of total
chicken slaughter. In some of. these years,. distribution of red meats was
uncertain and subject to controls, and many users or suppliers sought to
assure the availability of substitutes through the storage of poultry.
Another exception was the 1947-48 season when chicken prices were un-
usually high and supplies of turkey small.



Table 13a.- Eggs and poultry receipts by truck and
total, Chicago, 1950-52

Shell eggs Frozen egg Poultry, live Poultry, dressed
:Percent-: :Percent-: :Percent-: :Percent-
:Receipts: age by :Receipts: age by :Receipts: age by :Receipts: age by
: : truck : : truck : : truck : : truck
1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
: cases Percent lbs. Percent lbs. Percent lbs. Percent


1952
Total
By truck

1951
Total
By truc


1950
Total
By truck


: 3,858
,k : 3,724


3,823
,k : 3,700


a
: 3,962
: 3,694


24,685
97 24,094

28,284
97 24,884

20,574
93 19,332


47,256
98 46,715


53,245
88 52,699


63,356
94 62,072


134,291
99 120,004

128,475
99 113,606


117,784
98 97,916


1/ All poultry excluding turkeys and ducks.


- 20 -






PES-163


- 21 -


'Table' 14.- Turkeys: U. S. storage holdings February 1 as a percentage of
preceding year's crop, 1934 to date

: Turkeys slaughtered preceding : February 1 holdings of turkey,
: year, N.-Y. dressed equivalent: product weight basis 1/
Year :: Percentage : : Percentage of : Percentage of
Weight : of previous : Weight : previous year's previouss season's
y year : : slaughter storage peak
SMillion pounds Percent .Million pounds Percent Percent

1934. : 297 112 20 7 119
1935 : 293 95 21 8 118
1936 .268 95 21 8 87
1937 360 134 4i 11 199
1938 : 345 96 28 8 69
1939 354 103 29 8 101
1940 421 119 65 15 232
1941 : 79 114 65 14 100
1942 : 465 97 60 13 91
1943 : 492 106 38 8 63
1944 : 457 93 48 11 128
1945 : 541 118 74 14 153
1946 : 662 122 135 20 182
1947 : 694 103 14o 20 104
1948 : 588 86 33 14 59
1949 : 510 87 55 11 66

1950 : 691 135 138 20 251
1951 736 107 117 16 85
1952 : 836 114 16 4 100
1953 : 2/925 2/111 143 215 123
i/ For recent breakdown of turkey storage stocks by eviscerated and N. Y. dressed, see p. ;
earlier breakdowns not available. 2/ Unofficial estimate. 3/ Peak holdings from 1952 crop vere
158 million pounds on December 1, 1952.
------ --- --- --- 0---- -- ------- ------- -

Table 15.- Turkey prices per pound: Eviscerated heavy toms in New York City, and live
lightweight Beltsville Small Whites, Shenandoah Valley of Virginia and
West Virginia, selected dates, October 1951 to date

Date 1/
Season :
Oct. 1 : Nov. 1 Dec. 1 Jan. 1 Feb. 1 Mar. 1 Apr. 1 May 1 June 1
Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents

a. Frozen eviscerated toms, 16-18 pounds av. wt.

1951-52 62-64 63 64 63-65 56-5' 58-59 58-59 58-59 64 68,-69
1952-53 52-54 54-56 53-57 53-56 53-55

b. Frozen eviscerated toms, heaviest weights quoted 2/

1951-52 :1/65-66 3/62-64 61-64 4/51-55 14/57-58 /57-58 4/57-58 /64 70-71
1952-53 : 58-60 55-53 53-58 53-56 552-567

c. Live, lightweight Beltsville Small Whites

1951-52 : 38-39 43 41-13 39-40 36-38 37-39 38-39 35 35
1952-53 : 36-37 37-38 37-38 42 40-o

i/ When given date was Saturday, Sunday, or a holiday, or quotation was otherwise unavailable,
first business day thereafter. 2/ Over 24 pounds, unless otherwise noted. 3/ 22-24 pounds.
/ 20 pounds and over.
Source: Producer's Price Current.





JAN.-FEB, 1953


Table 16.- Chicken: U. S. peak storage holdings as a percentage of
total slaughter, annually, 1932 to date


Peak h
eason Quantity


Million
: pounds


1932-33
1933-34
1934-35
1935-36
1936-37
1937-38
1938-39
1939-40

1940-41
1941-42
1942-43
1943-44
1944-45
1945-46
1946-47
1947-48
1948-49
1949-50

1950-51
1951-52
1952-53


92
103
110
87
148
92
110
109

140
161
160
189
195
244
184
225
119
160

163
190
124


holdings l/ : Peak holdings
: Total chicken :
: Month : slaughter : age of percent
: reported : : age of annual
S, slaughter
Million
pounds Percent


January
do.
do.
do.
do.
do.
do.
do.

do.
do.
December
February
December
January
do.
do.
December
January
do.
December
do.


2,465
2,572
2,392
2,297
2,392
2,273
2,214
2,458

2,514
2,789
3,241
4,135
3,903
4,154
3,639
3,479
3,288
3,830


4,061
4,557
2/4,750


4
4
52/3


_/ Specifically, total poultry excluding turkeys and ducks.

2/ Product weight: breakdown between N. Y. dressed and eviscerated not
available.

3/ As of the first of the indicated month.

_/ New York dressed basis, for the calendar year in which the indicated
season began.


2/ Unofficial estimate.


- 22 -




PES-163


_-.__arit for Poultry Products Lowered
b_ Shift in Computati.on

In January, the "transfitonal" parity price for eggs was dropped
5 more percentage points, from 15 percent of the old parity to 80 percent.
This was down according to the provisions of the Agricultural Adjustment
Act of 1948, as amended by the Agricultural Adjustment Act of 1949, which
specifies that the transitional parity price related to the "old" formula
is to be reduced by 5 percent for each calendar year since January 1, 1949.

Table 17.- Prices received by farmers for eggs, chickens, and turkeys, relative
to the general level of prices received by farmers, 1940 to .date, and
example of derivation of adjusted base prices for parity conputation

: : Average prices received by
Prices Average prices received by farmers for poultry products,
received farmers for poultry products,
b. former puryes: divided by index of prices
by farmers poultry products : received for all commodities
Year for all ::- -
commodi- Eggs, chken Turkeys,: Eggs, chickens, : Turkeys,
ties 1 per e 0 per per : per
:(1910-l4=100i dozen per pound dozen pound pound
: Percent Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents


a. Annual averages


1940
3941
1942_
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952


1940-49
1941-50
1942-51
1943-52


100
123
158
192
196
206
234
275
285
249
256
302
288


202
218
235
2483


19.1
25.0
31. 4
38.7
33.3
39.0
39.2
46.4.
4-3.0
45.4
36.9
47.9
41.9


36.6
* 38.4
40.7
41.7


14o.
16.3
19.7
25.3
25.2
27.1
28.3
28.2
32.4
27.2
24.3
27.3
26.1


14.0
16.8
21.6
29.6
31.6
33.3
33.2
31.9
41.0
33.0
31.5
35.9
33.3


19.1
20.3
19.9
20.2
17.2
183.9
16.8
16.9
16.8
18.2

15.9
14.5


14.0
13.3
12.5
13.2
12.9
13.2
12.1
10.3
11.4
10.9
9.7
9.0
9.1


b. 120-month averages


24.2
25.4
26.5
27.2


29.1
30.9
32.8
34.0


* 18.1
17.6
17.3
S16.8


12.0
11.7
11.3
:11.0


14.0
13.7
13.7
15.4-
16.1
16.2
14.2
11.6
14.4
15.3
12.3
11.9
11.7


14.4
14.2
14.0
13.7


jf Including allowance for wartime subsidy payments.
2/ The 10-year averages appearing in these 3 columns correspond to the base prices
[for the computation of "modernized" parity for the year after the last year in-
cluded in the respective averages. "Modernized" parity is the base price multiplied
by the parity index. For eggs, "modernized" parity was not yet applicable in
January 1953; the effective parity price then was the transitional one.


- 23 -





JAN.-FEB. 1953


- 24 -


Parity for eggs will be shifted from the transitional to the
"modernized." basis whenever the figure as computed by the modernized
formula.is.higher than the transitional figure. -The transitional parity
price in mid-January was the. same as the modernized parity price would
have been. Any wideningg of the gap between the respective indexes of
prices paid.by.farmers 1/ used. to compute these 2 parities would raise the
.modernized. parity higher than the transitional.. Fromnthen on, the
modernized-one would be the effective one. In.mid-January the Unrevised
Index was 276 percent of 1910-14, whiie Prices Paid (Conmodities and
SServices, Interest, .Taxes, and Wage .ates) was 282..

S gg prices.in mid-January were .101 percent othe new current
transitional parity price. This was the first month since October 1946
that U. ,S: average egg prices received by farmers had reached parity.
(In May 1951 the percentage wa&.98.) Except for possible changes in the
two Iniexes of prices.paid by farmers from the mid-January levels, the U. S.
monthly average farm prices for-eggs from mid-February through mid-April
that would equal parity would be-41.2 -cents per dozen. 2/.From February
*'through pril. 1952, .prices received by farmers averaged 34.6 cents per
"dozen. Although egg prices are likd'y to'average higher this spring than
*last, they are.not :likely to be substantially above the parity level
during these months.

The adjusted base period prices for chickens and turkeys to be used
in computing 1953 parity prices for these commodities, are lower than the
bases used. last year. This is despite the fact that the 1943-52 averages
of both chicken and turkey prices were higher than the 1942-51 averages.
The downward adjustment occurs because the percentage rise in the average
*prices of these commodities for 1943-52, as compared with 1942-51, was
smaller than the increase in the index of prices received by farmers for
all products. (See table 17.)

* Rew-Development in Broiler Marketing

Broiler auctions have become popular in several specialized producing
areas in the last few months, following the initial success of the Eastern
Shore Poultry Growers' Exchange which had its first auction near Selbyvilla,
Delaware in June 1952.

Poultry has been sold .before by auction, but the method employed by
the Selbyville Exchange, by its counterparts in Goshen, Indiana, and Broad-
way, Virginia, and contemplated by the projected market for Gainsville,
Georgla, is novel in.that the chicken are notbrought to a central point
for sale. Instead, the flocks simply are listed a day or more in advance
of the auction. Prospective buyers visit and appraise the flocks in which
they may be interested, and then bid at the auction held at the Exchange or
Market headquarters.

1/ For transitional parity, the Unrevised Index of Prices Paid, Interest,
ani Taxes; for modernized parity, Prices Paid by Farmers for Commodities
and Services, Interest, Taxes, and Wage Rates.
2/ For February, March, and April, the factor for seasonally adjusting
monthly egg prices is steady, at 87 percent of the 12-month average.

J






PES-163


- 25 -


Since the services of the Exchange or auction do not involve trans-
portation of the birds sold, and the organization has no responsibility
for grading or otherwise handling the birds, the costs of operation are
low. The Selbyville Exchange charges $1.00 per thousand birds in the
flocks listed for sale through its facilities. The fee stands whether
the producer accepts the highest bid, or elects not to sell.

The establishment of this type of market tends to promote an open
exchange of information between buyers and sellers, since both the quan-
tities offered and the prices bid are clearly shown. When a large part
of an area's output is sold in such market, as is the case on the Eastern
Shore, the price-making process operates on a basis which should serve to
force the price differentials (between lots sold on the same day) to actu-
ally reflect differences in their worth, on account of quality or other
characteristics.

The Exchange or auctions also serve to prevent misunderstandings
between buyer and seller over the conditions of a deal, since the organi-
zation prescribes standard terms for the transfer, including such matters
as pickup date and weighing method, and exceptions must be explicitly
agreed upon. Also, the managements of the Exchange investigate the
credit status of buyers, and accept bids only from those able to assure
prompt payment to producers.

These marketing agencies are typically set up as non-profit
organizations. The impetus toward their organization usually comes from
people in the trades serving the broiler industry, as well as from broiler
growers themselves.

The tables following indicate the large volume achieved by the
Eastern Shore Exchange during the months it has been in operation, and
indicate the prices paid there in comparison with those quoted for the
Del-Mar-Va area as a whole (including sales at the Exchange). However,
the difference between the Exchange and over-all prices should not be
construed as indicating higher average net returns through the Exchange
than otherwise; there is no indication as to whether or not the average
quality of Exchange-sold birds might have exceeded that of those sold
otherwise.

Daily sales over the Selbyville Exchange have been scheduled for
Monday through Fridays, holidays excepted. At Goshen, Indiana, sales
have been held twice weekly since the system was begun in October 1952,
and the Broadway, Virginia auction began on January 9, 1953, also intend-
ing to hold semi-weekly sales, but initially holding only weekly auctions.





JAN.-FEB. 1953


Table 18.- Broilers: Weekly sales over the Eastern Shore Poultry Growers'
Exchange, Selbyville, Delaware, compared with total Del-Mar-Va
Smarketings, June 1952 to date


: Volume of broilers Total
Week : Number of birds :marketlngs of.
: Lots : : : broilers on
nding : Offered : Sold : Del-Mar-Va
S : : : peninsula
Number Thousands Thousands Thousands


.June 28 -:
July 5
12
19
26: :

Aug, .2;,
.9:': .
16
23
30

Sept. 6
13
20
27

Oct. 4 :
11
18
25

Nov. 1
8 :
15
22
29

Dec. 6
13
20
27 :

L953
Jan. 3
10
17
24
31


88

192
143
98.

119
142
141
119
122

115
171
114
120

94
93
85
56

n.a.
56
53
n.a.
n.a.

n.a.
101
80
n.a.


140
124
114
89
127

n.a.
116


1,076
423
1,741
1,205
1,013

1,135
S:1,520
1,813
1,143
1,020

979
1,453
980
1,234

850
735
712
n.a.

n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
673
658

n.a.
n.a.
71
n.a.


844
1,109
n.a.
911
n.a.

n.a.
n.a.


763
306
1,490
1,109
841

959
1,270
1,369
913
882

957
1,336
926
948

767
643
665
531

678
497
518
622
658

1,003
994
660
604


1,205
1,030
1,102
756
1,082

1,058
1,070


19


52


3,;146
2,858
3,197
3,275
S 2,7144

2,815
'2,6714
2,517
2,410,
S 2,438

2,2914
2,717
2,198
2,420

2,465
2,479
2,582
2,312

2,210
2,066
1,962
1,780
1,311

2,038
2,136
2,106
1,695


1,895
2,441
2,517
2.459
2,651


: Exchange sales
:as a percentage
: of total
: marketing
: on Peninsula
Percent


'24
11

34
31
** 3?
47
54
38
36

42
49
42
39

31
26
26
23

31
24
28
35
S50

49
47
31
36


64
42
44
31
41

42
40


1


Feb. 7
14


1/ Through October 13, lots offered; thereafter,lots sold. Lots offered but
not sold may be re-offered within the same week. n. a. Not available.


- 26 -


:*
:*






PES-163


- 27 -


Table 19.- Typical price quotations per pound (live) for broilers sold over
the Eastern Shore Poultry Growers' Exchange and for all sales on
Del-Mar-Va Peninsula, selected dates, November 1952 to date


Eastern Shore
Poultry Growers' Exchange I
Descrip-: : Price
tion of :Quantity: :
chickens: (head) : Complete : "M
chickens range .


Number Cents


Date





Nov. 3




Dec. 2:




Jan. 2:


59.500
14,000
31,500


31-32-
31-33
31


31 3/ -35
28-34-
31t-36-


26-23 3/4
27-30
27--29c1
271



25 3/4-271
26 -27T
25 3/4-28


: All sales on
./ : Del-Mar-Va Peninsula 2/
: Price
Weight : :
stly" : class : Complete : "Mostly"
range


Cents Cents


Cents


All weights


All weights


2IL-28 3/4
23 -29


Under 3 lbs.
3 lbs. and
over


Under 3 lbs.
3 lbs, and
over


31-33


31-365


26-29

27-302-


25-27

26-2,-


32-32-


33-34


27-23

28-28k


27-27-

2c~-271


The Producer's rice Current.
Federal-State Market News Service.


23,500
3,ooo
8,000
4,000


85,600
125, CO'
96,2CI0


79.000
145.500
39,200
5,000


Feb. 2:
*


Crosses
Reds
Whites


Crosses
Reds
Whites


Crosses
Peds
Whites
Mixed


Crosses
Reds
White


1/ Source:
2/ Source:






JAN.-FEB. 1953


'* Table 20.-.Distribuatlon of egg production on'farms by half years,
...by States. and regions, 1952

(data for cover chart)


State
and
region


Maine
N ew Hampshie .. .
Varmont
Maesachusetts
Rhode Island
Connecticut
New York
New Jersey
Pennsylvania
North Atlantic
Ohio
Indiana
Illinois
Michligan
Wisconsin
East North Central
Minnesota
Iowa
Missouri
North Dakota
South Dakota
Nebraska
Kansas
West North Central
Delaware
Maryland
Virginia
West Virginia
North Carolina
South Carolina
Georgia
Florida
South Atlantic
Kentucky
Tennessee
Alabama
Mississippi
Arkansas
Louisiana
Oklahoma
Texas
South Central
Montana
Idaho
Wyoming
Colorado
New Mexico
Arizona
Utah
Nevada
Washington
Oregon
California
Western
UNITED STATES


Egg production on farms

Jan.-June : July-Dec. : Total
.Mil. eggs Mil. eggs Mil. eggs

. 325 338 663
-- 21& 217 435
..89 80 169
463 462 925
54 53 107
313 330 643
1,234 1,134 2,368
1,261 1,242 2,503
1,971 1,712 3,.683


: Percentage distribution
: of annual production
: Jan.-June July-Dec.
Percent Percent

S 49' 51
50 : 50.
53 1 47
50 50
50 50
49 51
52 48
50 50
54 46


5,928 5,568 11,496 52 48
1,532 1,263 2,795 55 45
1,557 1,201 2,758 56 44
1,788 1,345 3,133 57 43
899 697 1,596 56 44
1,226 999 2,225 55 45
7,002 5,505 12,507 56 44
2,190 1,661 3,851 57 43
2,796 2,067 4,863 57 43
1,568 1,015 2,583 61 39
: 353 241 594 59 41
: 765 485 1,250 61 39
: 1,064 694 1,758 61 39
1,155 771 1,926 60 140
: 9,891 6,93. 16,825 59 41
: 81 57 138 59 41
: 303 212 515 59 41
: 667 482 1,149 58 42
: 279 201 480 58 42
: 791 545 1,336 59 41
277 185 462 60 40
: 489 339 828 59 41
: 216 161 377 57 43
3,103 2,182 5,285 59 41


: 731
: 606
: 443
: 381
: 1430
: 236
: 696
1,152
5: 275
: 143
: 1149
: 59
: 243
: 69
: 146
: s245
: 15
*: 421
: 313
: 1,870o
: 3,573
: 3,772


=


=


513
417
289
268
265
149
427
1,169
3,497
111
122
46
169
46
33
196
12
361
239
1,680
3,015
26,701


=


=


1,244h
1,023
732
649
695
385
1,123
2,921
8,772
254
271
105
412
115
79
441
27
782
552
3, 550

61,473


60
-'


41
41
39
41
38
39
38
40
40

45
44
41
40
42
44
44
46
43
47
46
43


=


r=


- 28 -


54







PS-163


Index of Special Articles, Features, and Other Selected
Items, Poultry and Egg Situation, 1952"


Item
Broilers veekly placements
by areas, 1951, and weekly
prices and ratios, Del-Mar-Va

Canada Egg production, egg
price support system

Cansus of Agriculture, 1950 -
Comparisons with BAE
data

Chickens: Breed distribution of
hatchery supply flocks
Distribution of flocks on farms,
by States

Intentions to raise, 1952

Raised: relation to
changes In weighted egg -
feed price ratio
pullete on hand following
Jan. 1

Chicks and young chickens on farms
during growing season:
relation to pullets ca hand
following Jan. 1

Chick purchases composition,
sexed and straight-run,
1943-52

Consumption, per capital -
eggs, chickens, turkey

Dried egg: dispositioL of USDA
stocks

Eggs, USDA surplus
removal program, 1952

Feed price outlook

Feed concentrate distribution among
livestock enterprises, 1950-51
1951-52

Frozen egg products, yolk, albumen:
values separated and mixed

Futures trading, eggs summary of
monthly prices for 1952

Income, gross, 1051, to farmers
from eggs and poultry

Outlook, 1953
Income, Demand, Springtime egg
prices, Egg production, Chickens
to be raised, Broilers,
Turkeys

Storage of eggs, Feed prices

Parity: Annual changes in
computation


Issue Ho.


158


162

158

157



157

160




159



160


161


157, 159, 160


159, 160

162


157
162


160


162


159





161

162


Item T
Parity: Factors for seasonal
adjustment of monthly
egg prices

Poultry conversion factors and
shrinkages, by species and
class, from live to dressed
and ready-to-cook

Poultry meat prices comparleone
with other meats and
livestock

Price control, minimum levels
for maximum price ceilings

Price ratioa, poultry and eggs/feed

Prices, eggs: seasonal variation
by sizes
monthly factors for seasonal
adjustment

Production and value: eggs,
chickens, broilers,
turkeys: 1951, by
states

U. S., annually, long time series

Pullets saved per 100 chicks
started

Season of hatch, for laying
flock replacements

Storage holdings: eggs, shell
and frozen, weekly stocks
during Into-storage reasons,
1966-51

Poultry, monthly holdings and
movements, Jan. 1951 -
July 1952

Storage, eggs; outlook for
1953

Supply of eggs, seasonal variation
by size

Turkeys: breed distribution of
hatchery supply flocks

Intentions to raise, 1952

Palsed, and related factors,
available data, 1929 to date

Scheduled deliveries to USDA under
1952 surplus removal
program

World egg production, 1951;
1952 chicken numbers


* The last preceding index, covering 1950 and 1951, was published in the Jan.-Feb. 1952 Iseue.

+ Issue 157, Jan.-Feb.; 158, Mar.-Apr.; 159, MaI-June; 160, July-Aug.; 161, Sept.-oct. (Ann'1l
Outlook issue); 162, Nov.-Dec.


- -


esue No.*


16o




157



162


157

159


162

160




159

159


160


162




157



160


162


162


162

157


157



162






U. S. Department of Agriculture
Washington 25, D. C.

OFFICIAL BUSINESS

BAE-PES-163-2/53-4400
PERMIT NO. 1001


UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA
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LIBRARY
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5-16-49
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