Potato stocks

Crop
Reporting
Board


January


0_n .


EOSTO -ITOR

Us DEPOSITO


1981


HUME


LIBRARY


JAN 2 1981


Economics and
Statistics Service
U.S. Department
of Agriculture
Washington, D.C.
20250


POTATO


YEAR


EARLIER


major
January:
Whites


as of


States


1979


percent


January 1,
18 percent


Reds.


total


1981


are estimated


than


stocks


on hand


January


percent


1980
were


Russet


percent


below


percent


1979


Estimated
dent front
stocks ar


down


P


estimated


January
earlier.
cent, re


Estimated
spectively,


regional
storage,
Maine's s


breakdown


26 p
tock


1980


percent


as follows


below


January 1
1 million


Central


from


percent,


cwt,
stock


State


percent
year e


last
cwt,


below
earlier


respectively


percent


Washington


from January


1980


Eastern


and 1
24 pe


recent


January


Minne


six Western


below


from


below J
a year


down


North


and Wi
States


7 million
anuary 1,
earlier.


cz per-
Dakota'


sconsin


are


stock


below
year
per-


-nt
S


I perce
include
stock o
ture ic


compared with


above the
.1 million


January


same
cwt ol


farm


fall


period a
f potato


year
that


carded without


appearance
.8 million


during


were


grading,
month of


December


dumped


States


total
during


totaled


disappearance
grading, fed


totaled


live-


shrinkage (moi
25.8 million


1979.


The q
percent


quantity of
below the


potatoes


same


processed


year


January
for the


1981


seven


totaled


major


.3 million


cwt,


FALL POTATOES:


PRODUCTION AND, STOCKS C


weLM


I I


Relea set;


Potato stocks


at 144 million


percentt


totaled


three


holdings
January


e down
percent


1979


year
down


States
percent


totaled


million


million


Idaho


stock


while


cwt,


.


1979
sot a


.5 million


Disappearance


Oregon


year age
are down
are down


percent


n potato


12 percent
19 percent


from


and 23


110 million


December


cwt,
date


period


States


znn


ttp z


STgcrlf~ ooyly nt~


iBBR68CJAd~OM


1







NOTE:


Stocks are defined as the quantity remaining in storage for all purposes


and uses,


including


the date of each report.


shrinkage and waste and other


Sales of fall


losses that occur after


potatoes for all purposes generally


account for about 90 percent of the total fall
loss and home use account for the remaining 10


production.
P percent.


Shrinkage and


- S- --- -- --- ----- --- --n --- ----- --- -- ---- ----- ----


APRIL


TABLE 1. FALL POTATOES: DECEMBER 1, JANUARY 1, FEBRI
1, AND MAY 1 TOTAL STOCKS AND COMPARABLE PRqOUCTION. FOR 15 STA1


JARY 1, MARCH 1,
FES ESTIMATING POTATO STOCKS 1/
-- --- -- -- -- -- -- -- -m


: PRODUCTION


DEC 1


JAN 1


FEB 1


MAR 1


APR I


MAYl


a --- --- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -se aa- a -as- -n l -- -- -- --- -- -- --- -- -- -- ---- -
1,000 (MT


259,977
258,613
242,390
247,686
278,679
266,422
294,978
295,421
311,981
285,060
253,883


171,600
172,550
155,190
154,890
183,850
181,720
198,630
202,550
219,850
200,820
169,780


147,550
148,600
132,050
131,600
160,100
156,220
172,230
175,300
193,520
176,020
143.960


120,650
122,350
105,240
105,360
131,480
129,710
142,030
147,930
162,980
147,910


95,850
97,000
82,260
80,460
102,963
102,850
112,830
119,850
132,570
121,720


57,710
55,465
75,217
70,970
81,130
88,680
99,250
92,550


64,810
59,535


1/ SEE TABLE 3 FOR LIST OF 15 STATES.


BEGINNING WITH 1971


TABLE


LATE SUMMER PRODUCTION FOR N Y


POTATOES USED FOR PROCESSING


-1*1,


WIS AND WASH HAS BEEN CLASSIFIED AS FALL.


, 1979 AND 1980 CROPS 2/


SEVEN STATES


STATE


: STORAGE
: SEASON


DEC 1


: JAN 1


FEB 1


MAR 1


: APR 1


: MAY 1


ENTIRE
SEASON


1,000 CWT


IDAHO AND MALHEUR
CO., OREG


MAINE 3/


1979-80
1980-81


14,220
14,460


1979-80
1980-81


WASH AND OTHER
AREAS. OREG


OTHER STATES 4/


TOTAL


1979-80
1980-81


1979-80
1980-81


1979-80
1980-81


13,510
14,610


2,355

32,400
33,615


18,690
18,710

2,655
2,880

16,995
16,845

3,405
2,890

41,745
41,325


23,970


3,470


20.725


4.260


52.425


28,840


4,245


24.915


5,100


63,100


34,440


5,200


29,395


6.055


75,090


39.930


6.200


33.360


6,880


86,370


55.600


7,965


43,295


8.785


15,645


1/ TOTAL
PRODUCED.
nrTrern


QUANTITY


RECEIVED AND USED


FOR PROCESSING REGARDLESS OF


DOES NOT INCLUDE QUANTITIES USED FOR POTATO CHIPS


THE STATE


IN WHICH


IN MAINE, MICH OR MINN.


THE POTATOES WERE
!/ PREVIOUS MONTH


fUTMPIri uIu nAT M nuui nnLrATrnre nAn V


U1III( run rr nnlr


, ,J







TABLE 3.


POTATOES:


PRODUCTION AND TOTAL STOCKS OF FALL POTATOES HELD BY GROWERS


PROCESSORS AND LOCAL DEALERS ON JANUARY


, 1980 AND JANUARY 1,


CROP OF 1979


CROP OF 1980


o -- a- -- -- -- --- --- --- --- -- -0 l~ ~~~ 0 -- a-- -- -- a-- --


: : : JAN 1


: PRODUCTION


: TOTAL STOCKS:


: JAN 1


AS % OF


: PRODUCTION


: PRODUCTION


: TOTAL STOCKS:


: JAN 1


: JAN 1


STOCKS


PRODUCTION


1,000 CWT


PERCENT


1,000 CWT


PERCENT


CALIF
COLO
IDAHO
MAINE


NY-LI :
UPSTATE:


N DAK
OHIO
OREG
PA


15 STATE
TOTAL


6,364
11,455
85,050
27,685
8,000
12,920
1,800
1,482
6,431
6,463
18,240
2,400
25,310
6,000
48,450
17,010


: 285,060


3,700
7,100
58,500
21,200
4,400
9,500
1,690
930
2,400
2,500
10,700
800
14,600
3,300
27,300
7.400


6,438
10,950
78,455
24,960
7,403
9,920
1,725
1,876
4,418
6,250
15,680
1,948
19,745
4,180
43,935
16.000


176.020


253,883


3,300
6,500
51,500
16,100
3,300
7,000
1,610
1,150
950
2,150
8,900
300
11,300
2,500
22,000
5.400


143.960


"Root


calculal
estimate
percent
becomes
concern
season
those ii


Mean
This


Sq


in evaluating the reliab


uare Error",
is computed I
inal estimate
)ns for the


id the f
deviati<


statistical
g expected


nfluencing recent


errors


years


"Roo


a statistical


r expressing
as a percent


twent
Square


1961-80
It Mean


factors


measure


based


the deviations
of the final
y-year period.
"e Error". Pr
preliminary esti


affecting


' preliminary estimate.


year


potato stocks
performance,


the January


iuaw


-e


*obability sta
imate relative


s estimate


averaging


root
itement


of this
.s can


to the final


average
e made


e


The "Root Mean Square Error" for the January


means


chances


not be above


are 2


or- below


million hundredweight. Chance
will not exceed 4.0 percent or


out of 3


the final


that


estimate


the current


more


approximately 5.76 m


potato
t estim
than 2,


stocks


iate


.3 percent


estimate


Ilio


is 2.3 percent.
n hundredweight


or approximately


level) that the difference


3.5 million


million hundredweight


10 years,


the difference between the January


hundredweight. 1
The preliminary


ie largest
January 1


preliminary and final estimate


was 5.9 and the smallest


estimate was below the final estimate 9 out of


STATE


STOCKS:


AS % OF


To assist users


lity of the January


estimate,


assuming


in the current


between
estimate
The sc


estimates,


preliminary
the squared


are not different


During the past


averaged


nd of
from


s are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence


the past


of 144 mi


10 years.


1 lion hundredweight.


deviation




UNIVERSRY OF FLORIDA


II IIIIHUI1111IIIIIIIIl lllllll
3 1262 08862 1213


IDR~


TABLE 4.


FALL POTATOES:


STOCKS BY TYPE AS PERCENT OF TOTAL STOCKS,
11 MAJOR STATES


JANUARY


1981,


POTATO TYPES


REDS -----------WHITES
REDS :WHITES


: RUSSETS --TOTAL
:RUSSETS :TOTAL


PERCENT


COLO
IDAHO
MAINE
MICH
MINN
NY
N DAK
OREG
PA
WASH
WIS


2/75


50
2/ 3/100
59


2/100

20


1/90
1/ 27100
S 25


15
1/ 2/100

1/ 2/100
75


STATE


TOTAL


74


INCLUDES SMALL QUAN TI TIES OF WHITES, LESS THAN 5 PERCENT OF TOTAL.
INCLUDES SMALL QUANTITIES OF REDS, LESS THAN 5 PERCENT OF TOTAL.
INCLUDES SMALL QUANTITIES OF RUSSETS, LESS THAN 5 PERCENT OF TOTAL.
NOT PUBLISHED TO AVOID DISCLOSURE OF INDIVIDUAL OPERATIONS.


I
------s-a------


100


STATE


11
-1 --f
1/

I/
4/


0:~


1~1~1


; pi;:Pi



i,