Potato stocks

Q9Z A\/W


laL.


( I-) "I I


AT


ST


Crop
Reporting
Board


-r~


Released:


March


3:00 P.M.


asu

- ^


Economics, Statistics, &
Cooperatives Service


pP.


I. *
' .


Ir~;us


US. Department
of Agriculture
Washington, D.C
20250


-PERCENT MORE


POTATO


STOCKS


ON MARCH


1979


An
the fall
lier and


estimated


129 million cwt


producing areas
13 percent more


on March


potatoes
1979. Th


for all
s was 6


us
pe


es


were


recent ab(


1977.


in storage
ove a year


ear-


The regional


111ion cwt.


1977.
year.
above


Stocks
Stocks


yea


last


percent from


breakdown


storage,


down


in Maine amounted
in the eight Cent
r. The eiaht Wes


1978 due mo


as follows: The
10 percent from a


ral


tern


stly


seven
year


12.3 million cwt
States totaled 2


states


larger


astern


earlier but


states


., 15 percent 1
5.7 million cwt


had 86.4 million cwt.


holdings


Idaho


and Wa


have


16.4


percent above
ss than last
, 16 percent


in storage,
shington.


Disappearance of


(excluding


USDA'
cwt.
farms


s pota


Nevada
to div


of potatoes


)


the 1978


which


version
that we


includes
program.
re dumped


, discarded without grading


crop


potatoes
The total


to March


diverted


1979 was
to March


disappearance


during grading,


and lo


due to


185 million cwt.


1979


indcuaes


to lives


shrinkage


tock


under the


24.9 million
on potato


(moisture


The quantity of


States


amounted


to 66


potatoes


.5 m


process


11ion cwt


to March
percent


1979


than


in th
last


seven major


year


r I I I I


* -


- I


@


j


!


I







NOTE:


Stocks


are defined


uses,


as the quantity remaining in storage for


including shrinkage and waste and other


after the date of each report.


generally acco
Shrinkage and


losses


all purposes


that occur


Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes


unt for about 90 percent of the total fall production.


loss and home


use account for the remaining


0 percent.


TABLE


. FALL POTATOES:


AND APRIL


PRODUCTION


TOTAL STOCKS,


, DECEMBER 1, JANUARY 1, FEBRUARY 1
CROPS OF 1968-78 IN THE FALL STATES


MARCH 1,


_: :TOTAL STOCKS
YEAR PRODUCTION FOLLOWING YEAR
: DEC 1 JAN 1 FEB 1 MAR 1 APR 1

1,000 CWT

1968 234,832 152,810 130,350 104,995 81,940
1969 252,561 162,800 138,140 111,510 87,620
1970 267,827 175,145 150,030 122,230 96,780
1971 1/ : 266,707 176,390 151,435 124,375 98,485
1972 2/ : 249,320 158,565 134,420 107,310 83,380 58,250
1973 254,379 157,837 133,665 106,615 81,165 55,870
1974 289,342 187,935 163,095 133,425 104,116 75,905
1975 278,391 185,965 159,140 131,685 104,050 71,640
1976 307,427 201,980 174,775 143,925 114,140 81,875
1977 307,064 206,690 178,205 149,690 120,970 89,215
1978 : 318,702 218,685 190,480 159,141 128,524

1/ BEGINNING WITH 1971, LATE SUMMER PRODUCTION FOR N Y-L I, WIS AND WASH HAS BEEN CLASSIFIED AS FALL.
2/ APR 1 STOCKS EFFECTIVE WITH 1972 CROP YEAR.



TABLE 2. POTATOES USED FOR PROCESSING 1/, SEVEN STATES 1977 AND 1978 CROP


STATE STORAGE TO TO TO TO TO STORAGE
: SEASON : DEC 1 JAN 1 FEB 1 MAR 1 APR : SEASON
:--1.000 CWT


IDAHO AND MALHEUR
CO., OREG


MAINE 2/


WASH AND OTHER
AREAS, OREG

OTHER STATES 3


TOTAL


1977-78
1978-79

1977-78
1978-79

1977-78
1978-79

1977-78
1978-79

1977-78
1978-79


16,761
15.660


4,185
3,670


17,745
18.060


36,846
35.323


47,507
45,595


5,405
4,420

58,570
56,045


39.070


4,980
4,390


30.280


6,230
5,290

70,283
66,515


82,695


61.261


8,040


44,460


9,855


123.616


1/ TOTAL QUANTITY RECEIVED AND. USED FOR PROCESSING REGARDLESS OF THE STAT IN WHICH THE POTATOES WERE
PRODUCED. DOES NOT INCLUDE QUANTITIES USED FOR POTATO CHIPS IN MAINE, MICH OR MINN.
2/ INCLUDES MAINE GROWN POTATOES ONLY.
3/ MICH, MINN AND N DAK.







TABLE 3. POTATOES:
HELD BY GROWERS, PROCESSORS


PRODUCTION AND TOTAL STOCKS OF FALL POTATOES
AND LOCAL DEALERS ON MARCH 1, 1978 AND MARCH 1,


CROP OF 1977 CROP OF 1978
: TOTAL :MIAR 1 STOCKS : TOTAL I : MAR 1 STOCKS
STATE PRODUCTION STOCKS : AS % OF PRODUCTION: STOCKS : AS % OF
: MAR 1. 1978 : PRODUCTION : : MAR 1. 1979 : PRODUCTION
1,000 CWT PERCENT 1,000 CWT PERCENT

CALIF 5,950 1,700 29 6,055 1,880 31
COLO 9,490 3,400 36 9,750 3,050 31
CONN 2/ 2/ 2/ 2/
IDAHO 88,200 46,Q00 53 96,980 50,000 52
IND : 1,128 75 7 936 55 6
MAINE 28,320 14,400 51 26,180 12,300 47
MASS 888 105 12 810 145 18
MICH : 8,800 2,400 27 8,670 3,000 35
MINN 12,960 5,700 44 14,910 7,600 51
MONT 2,016 1,770 88 2,088 1,750 84
NEBR : 1,440 550 38 1,680 750 45
NH 1/ : 2/ 2/
N Y L I : 7,T82 00 11 6,175 600 10
UPSTATE 5,356 1,200 22 6,500 1,200 18
N DAK 21,600 8,800 41 22,400 9,900 44
OHIO 2,744 330 12 2,215 260 12
OREG 25,550 10,800 42 28,488 9,900 35
PA 6,375 1,600 25 6,250 2,150 34
RI : 2/ 2/ 2/ 2/
S DAK 1,062 3b5 29 1,Tg90 T80 15
UTAH 1,416 285 20 1,127 280 25
VT 2/ 2/ 2/ 2/
WASH 50,00 15,r00 31 50,85 19,200 38
WIS 18,038 4,000 22 17,325 4,000 23
WYO 1,474 220 15 1,360 190 14

OTH STS 1,715W 130 8 1,488 34 2

23 STATE
TOTAL 3/ 302,304 120,970 40 313,262 128,524 41

I/ ESTIMATES DISCONTINUED AFTER 1977 CROP. 2/ INCLUDED IN "OTHER STATES". 3/ EXCLUDING UEV FOR WHICH NO
STOCKS ESTIMATES ARE MADE. NEV 1977 PRODUCTION 4,760,000 CWT AND 1978 PRODUCTION 5,440,000 CWT.


To assist use
Mean Square Error"


puted by
percent
period.
statement
final en
those in


expression
of the fin
The square
ts can be i
d of season
fluencing 1


rs in evaluating the reliabili
, a statistical measure based
g the deviations between the M
al estimate and averaging the


e
m
n
r


root
ade c
esti
recent


of this
oncerning
mate, ass
years' p


average be
expected I
uming that
rel iminary


ty of the March 1i 1979 p
on past performance, has
arch 1 preliminary estima
squared percentage deviat
statistically the "Root
s in the current prelimin
ors affecting this year's
mates.


otato stocks
been calculate
te and the fi
ions for the
Mean Square E
ary estimate
estimate are


estimates, the "Root
ed. This is com-
nal estimate as a
1959-78 twenty-year
rror". Probability
relative to the
not different from


The "Root Mean Square Error" for the March 1, 1979 potato stocks estimate:is 3.8 percent. This means
that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 129 million hundredweight will not be above or
below the final estimate by more than 3.8 percent or approximately 4.88 million hundredweight. Chances
are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 6.6 percent or approxi-
mately 8.48 million hundredweight.

During the past 10 years, the difference between the March 1 preliminary and the final estimate aver-
aged 2.9 million hundredweight. The largest deviation was 6.3 million hundredweight and the smallest was
.3 million hundredweight. The preliminary March 1 estimate was below the final estimate 9 times and above
the final estimate once during the past 10 years.




UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA

1II11111 llI IIIIIIIl
3 1262 08862 1080


POTATO STOCKS QUALITY SURVEY
MINNESOTA AND NORTH DAKOTA (RED RIVER VALLEY)


The potato stocks quality information contained in this report is based on a survey conducted by the
Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service in the Red River Valley of North Dakota and Minnesota.


Sample bags.of potatoes selected on a random basis
issued each month during the 1978-79 storage season
for potatoes at the time of removal from storage.
Association, samples were selected only for process


n


were placed in storage at harvest time. Reports are
showing the cumulative average grade and weight loss
At the request of the Red River Valley Potato Growers


sing potatoes.


recovered before March 1, 1979 continue t
slightly higher and the after storage qual


period a year ago. For Russet varieties, however, a
vest and after storage potatoes compared with March 1
for white varieties while in storage was only 8 point
decline a year earlier. Russet samples removed from
1's versus a 10 point decline last March 1.


The percent of white varieties graded


storage culls, at
the percent of Rus
for after storage
March 1. 1978 for


11 percent
set culls


potatoes.
white var


"i


S


were


points


r


o indicate that the quality of white varieties at
ity was significantly higher than for the comparable
education in quality was reflected for both at har-
1978. The decline in No. 1 grade (including B's)
i as of March 1, 1979 compared with a 12 point


storage to date


as culls at harv
below March 1,


at harvest was below the comparab
The total weight loss while in s
eties but 1 point lower than a ye


The cooperation of the many potato growers
greatly appreciated.


est was
1978.


indicate a


same as


Samples


date 1


storage wa


recov


ast season
s 1 point


ar ago for Russets


and storage operators


who ass


14 point decline in No.


a year ago, but after
ered to date indicate that
n but was 2 points higher
higher this year than


ted on this project is


POTATO STOCKS QUALITY SURVEY, RED RIVER VALLEY,
AVERAGE GRADE OF POTATOES


1978-79


SNO. 1
INCLUDING B'S
: AT : AFTER
HARVEST : STORAGE


CULLS


: AT
: HARVEST


: AFTER
: STORAGE


: AT
: HARVEST
PERCENT


: AFTER
: STORAGE


: AT
HARVEST


S 1/
: AFTER
STORAGE


: WEIGHT
* LOSS""


SAMPLES RECOVERED BEFORE MARCH


1979 2/


WHITE
RUSSET


SAMPLES RECOVERED BEFORE MARCH


1978 2/


WHITE
RUSSET


ALL SAMPLES


1977-78


STORAGE SEASON-FINAL


WHITE
RUSSET


I/ NO. 1 B'S ARE POTATOES THAT MEET THE U S NO. I GRADE BUT DO NOT MEET MINIMUM
AREA: RED AND WHITE VARIETIES 1 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND RUSSET VARIETIES
DIAMETER OR LESS THAN 4 OUNCES.
2/ MATCHED SAMPLES, QUALITY AT HARVEST COMPARED WITH QUALITY AFTER STORAGE.


SIZE STANDARDS FOR THE
- UNDER 2 INCHES IN


harvest was


t