Potato stocks

J~~r~


re lets


KS


Crop
Reporting
Board


Released:


January


cE onomics Statish A


S\Cooperatives Sei
US. Department
I 1of Agriculture


vice


6a a


Washington, D.C.
20250


SEVEN PERCENT MORE POTATO STOCKS ON


JANUARY


1979


An estimated


fall
and


producing


190 million


areas


9 percent more


on January


than


of potatoes
1979. This


for all
was 7 D


uses


percent


were in s
above a


torage
year e


in the
earlier


1977.


The
million
1977. T
of potat


regional
cwt. in s
his is th


oes


eludes po
diversion
8 percent


age, up 11
Washington.


breakdown


torage,
e lowes


in Maine


tatoes di
program.
above la


percent


verted


down 9
stocks


as follows


percent


January 1,
to January


Stocks


year


from


1979


the eight
e eiaht We


1978 due mo


from a y
eastern
amounted


live


Central


tern


seven


ear


Eastern


earlier


region
to 8.


tock
Sta


States


y to larger


since


tate


1974


had 2


3 percent


68 million


fee


tes


d under
totaled


holdings


USDA


below


appearance
which in-


potato


.5 million


4 million
in Idaho,


Oregon


stor


Disappearance of


(excluding


includes
potato f
loss).


Nevada),


19.6 million


arms,


1978


decrea


fall


e of


. that were


carded without


crop


percent


dumped


to January


from


during


grading


1979 was


st year. ine
grading, fed t
e to shrinkage


123 million


total


cwt.


appearance


livestock


sture


The quantity of


amounted


Th; .<


Vi


potatoes


to 45.6 million


processes
4 percent


January
ss than


1979


last


seven


year


U


major


States


:i


J" 1-


1


T*








NOTE:


Stocks are defined as
all purposes and uses,


the quantity remaining in storage for
including shrinkage and waste and


other losses that occur after the date of each report.
Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes generally account


for about 90 percent of the tota


age and
cent.


fall production.


and home use account for the remaining


Shrink-
10 per-


TABLE


FALL POTATOES:


AND APRIL


PRODUCTION


1 TOTAL STOCKS, CROP


DECEMBER 1


S


JANUARY 1


, FEBRUARY 1, MARCH 1


OF 1968-78 IN THE FALL STATES


TOTAL STOCKS
YT: : FOLLOWING YEAR
YEAR PRODUCTION DEC 1
E JAN 1 FEB 1 MAR I APR 1


1968 234,832 152,810 130,350 104,995 81,940
1969 252,561 162,800 138,140 111,510 87,620
1970 267,827 175,145 150,030 122,230 96,780
1971 1/ 266,707 176,390 151,435 124,375 98,485
1972 2/ 249,320 158,565 134,420 107,310 83,380 58,250
1973 : 254,379 157,837 133,665 106,615 81,165 55,870
1974 289,342 187,935 163,095 133,425 104,116 75,905
1975 278,391 185,965 159,140 131,685 104,050 71,640
1976 307,427 201,980 174,775 143,925 114,140 81,875
1977 307,064 206,690 178,205 149,690 120,970 89,215
1978 318,702 218,685 190,480

1/ BEGINNING WITH 1971, LATE SUMMER PRODUCTION FOR N Y-L I, WIS AND WASH HAS BEEN CLASSIFIED AS FALL.
2/ APRIL 1 STOCKS EFFECTIVE WITH 1972 CROP YEAR.



TABLE 2. POTATOES USED FOR PROCESSING 1/, SEVEN STATES 1977 AND 1978 CROP


STATE : STORAGE : TO TO TO TO TO ENTIRE
SEASON DEC 1 JAN 1 FEB 1 MAR 1 APR 1 SEASON

-- SO U --------:----


IDAHO AND MALHEUR


MAINE


WASH AND OTHER
AREAS, OREG

OTHER STATES 3


TOTAL


1977-78
1978-79

1977-78
: 1978-79

1977-78
: 1978-79

1977-78
1978-79

1977-78
1978-79


16,761
15,660


14,205
14,758

3,380
2,625

36,846
35,323


3,290
2,800

17,745
18,060


27,360


4,185


21,620


5.405


3,520

47,507
45.595


58.570


32,913


4.980


26,160


6,230


70,283


39.070


5.960


30,280


7,385


82.695


61,26


8O4QR,,


44,460


9,855


123.616


If TOTAL QUANTITY RECEIVED AND USED POR PROCESSING REGARDLESS OF THE STATE IN WHICH THE POTATOE5 ERE-
PRODUCED. DOES NOT INCLUDE QUANTITIES USED FOR POTATO CHIP "' "" "'""


INCLUDES MAINE GROWN POTATOES ONLY.
MICH, MINN AND N DAK,


rInub, W n4IYI








TABLE 3. POTATOES: PRODUCTION AND TOTAL STOCKS OF FALL POTATOES HELD BY GROWERS,
PROCESSORS, AND LOCAL DEALERS ON JANUARY 1, 1978 AND JANUARY 1, 1979


CROP OF 1977 : CROP OF 1978
STATE TOTAL STOCKS: JAN I STOCKS : TOTAL STOCKS JAN 1 STOCKS
STATEPRODUCTION OTAL STOKS978 AS % OF : PRODUCTION TOTAL STOCKS AS % OF
: 1 PRODUCTION: : P: PRODUCTION
1,000 CWT PERCENT 1,000 CWT PERCENT

CALIF 5,950 3,200 54 6,055 3,400 56
COLO 9,490 5,650 60 9,750 5,550 57
CONN 466 175 3/ 3/
IDAHO 88,200 61,000 69 96,980 67,500 70
IND 1,128 150 13 936 185 20

MAINE 28,320 20,200 71 26,180 17,500 67
MASS 888 265 30 810 380 47
MICH : 8,800 4,400 50 8,670 4,800 55
MINN : 12,960 8,600 66 14,910 10,700 72
MONT 2,016 1,820 90 2,088 1,870 90

NEBR 1,440 830 58 1,680 1,100 65
N H1/ 71 50 70
NY LI 7,182 2,200 31 6,175 2,250 36
UPSTATE 5,356 2,200 41 6,500 2,400 37
N DAK 21,600 13,800 64 22,400 14,700 66

OHIO 2,744 800 29 2,215 700 32
OREG 25,550 14,100 55 28,488 15,400 54
PA 6,375 3,500 55 6,250 3,450 55
RI 943 2/ 3/ 3/
S DAK 1,062 705 66 1,190 650 55

UTAH 1,416 720 51 1,127 660 59
VT 235 130 55 3/ 3/
WASH 50,600 24,700 49 50,685 28,800 57
WIS 18,038 8,300 46 17,325 7,700 44
WYO 1,474 710 48 1,360 540 40

OTHER STATES 3/ 1,488 245 16

23-STATE TOTAL 4/ 302,304 178,205 59 313,262 190,480 61
r. 1,iii..i e.., ira..rt a.. tin A_^ rrrn I n ir I ii r rain, Tv-r rim rent., ,r I nf. ., n r ft i *r, tar r .tn nrn


/ 1 ESTIMATES DISCONTINUED AFTER 1977 CROP. 2/ R I INCLUDED IN CONN. 3/
IN OTHER STATES. 4/ EXCLUDING NEV FOR WHICH NO STOCKS ESTIMATES ARE MADE
4,760,000 CWT. AND 1978 PRODUCTION 5,440,000 CWT.


L NEV,
!'NEV


K I, MNU VI INlLUUEU
977 PRODUCTION


To assist users in evaluating the r
"Root Nean Square Error", a statistical
computed by expressing the deviations be
as a percent of the final estimate and a
year period. The square root of this av
ability statements can be made concernin
the final end of season estimate, assumin
from those influencing recent years' pre


liability of the
measure based on p
tween the January
averaging the squar
erage becomes stat
g expected errors
g that factors aff
liminary estimate.


January 1, 1979 po
ast performance, h
1 preliminary esti
ed percentage devi
istically the "Roo
in the current pre
ecting this year's


tato stock
as been ca
mate and t
nations for
t Mean Squ
liminary e
estimate


are


estimates, the
lated. This i
final estimate
e 1959-78 twen
Error". Prob
mate relative
not different


The "Root Mean Square Error" for the January 1, 1979 potato stocks estimate is 2.2 percent. This
means that chances are 2 ,out of 3 that the current estimate of 190 million hundredweight will not be
above or below the final estimate by more than 2.2 percent or approximately 4.19 million hundredweight.
Chances are 9 out bf 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 3.8 percent
or approximately 7.24 million hundredweight.

During the past 10 years, the difference between the January 1 preliminary and final estimate
averaged 3.3 million hundredweight. The largest deviation was 6.2 and the smallest was 1.4 million
hundredweight. The preliminary January 1 estimate was below the final estimate each year during the


s

ty-
to






POTATO STOCKS QUALITY


SURVEY


MINNESOTA AND NORTH DAKOTA (RED RIVER VALLEY)


The potato stocks quality


Economics,


issued


Statistics,
of potatoes


each month during the


for potatoes


Associ


action


information


and Cooperatives


contained in this report


Service


selected on a random bas


1978-79 storage


at the time of removal


, samp


were selected onl


in the


were


season


from storage.


for proc


Red Piver


is based on
ley of Nort


a survey conducted by the


h Dakota


laced in storage at harvest tim


showing the cumulative


average grade


At the request of the Red River Vall


and Minnesota.
e. Reports are
and weight loss
y Potato Growers


ess ing potatoes.


Samples
and after st
(including B


storage
1 ier.


recovered


o rag'
's)


to date


e


before


was higher


January


y 1, 1979 indicate that the quality of the


than for the


for white varieties


compares


with


whi e


comparable d


ate a


in storage was


a 10 perce


nt decline


year e
percent


19 po


white


earlier. T
(7 points


ints)


during the


varieties
e in No.


samp


at harvest
grade


removed from


same period a year ear-


The percent
weight los


graded as
while in


This report does
recovered by Jan


culls at har


S toa


not inci


ge for


vest and


Samp


ude information for


after


storage for


recovered to date


us .e


potatoes


white varieties
is 5 percent.

as an insuffici


is below a year ago.


ent number of sample


1, 1979.


cooperation


great


), jpprec


of the


man;11


potato


growers


and storage operators


who assisted on thi


project


i ated


POTATO


STOCKS


OUALIT/


SURVEY


PED PIVER VALLEY


AVERAGE GRADE OF POTATOES


1978-79


i.o.1.NO. 2 CULLS O. 1 B'S 1/WEIGHT
CROP: IrCLIJiG Bt A F LOSSH
: AT : AFTEPFTEP :: AFTER : AT : AFTER : AT : AFTER : LOSS
: HARVEST : STORAGE : HARVEST : STORAGE : HARVEST :AGE RAGE HARVEST : STORAGE :E
PERCENT

SAMPLES PECOVEPED BEFORE JANUARY 1, 1979 2/

WH:TE : 90 83 6 3 11 7 9 5
RUSSET 3,'

SAMPLES PECOVEPED BEFORE JANUARY 1, 1978 2/

WHITE 86 77 9 11 5 12 5 5 3
RUSSET 3,'

ALL SAMPLES 1977-78 STORAGE SEASON FINAL 2/

WHITE 86 72 7 11 7 17 6 7 6
RUSSET 85 69 16 8 15 4 5 6


B'S ARE POTATOES


AREA:


THAT MEET THE U


RED AND WHITE VARIETIES


IN DIAMETER OR LESS THAN 4 OUNCES.
2/ MATCHED SAMPLES, QUALITY AT HARVEST


DATA NOT AVAILABLE.


GRADE BUT DO NOT MEET MINIMUM SIZE STANIDAPDS FOR THE


1/4 INCHES


IN DIAMETER AND RUSSET VARIETIES


- UNDER


I INCHES


COMPARED WITH QUALITY AFTER STORAGE.


INSUFFICIENT NUMBER OF SAMPLES REMOVED FROM STORAGE PRIOR TO THE REPOPT.


UtJIVERSITV ncr ei --_.i^^^


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3 1262 08862 0942


were