Potato stocks

ray


r-A 'Pt


KS


Crop
Reporting
Board


Released:


December


ilia8


it~L~r'FU


U S DEPOSITORY


SIX PERCENT MORE


SUME LIBRARY

FEB 051979


IFX2S. Un v.of Fi a
POTATO STOCKS ON DECEMBER


Economics, Statistics, &
Cooperatives Service
US. Department
of Agriculture
Washington, D.C
20250


1978


An
the fall
earlier


estimated
producing


19 million
areas on


and 8 percent more


of potatoes


December


than


1976.


1978.


for all


uses


was 6


were


percent


storage


above


a year


The regional
million cwt. in s


1976.
of pot
clues
potato


storage,


This
atoes


breakdown


torage,
e lowes


in Maine


those potatoes


divers


progr


percent above
up 10 percent


and Washington.


down


as follows


9 percent from a


stocks


to December


diverted


am.
last
from


Stocks
year.
1977


The seven


Eastern


year earlier


the eastern region


, 1978 amounted
December 1 for


the eight


due mo


to 6


live


Central


eight Western


stly to


since
.28 mi
tock f


States


states


States


had 31.6


and 3 percent


1973


Ilion cwt


eed


below


appearance
which in-


the USDA


totaled 48.1


had 139 m


larger holdings


million


Ilion


Idaho,


Oregon


appearance of


(excluding Nevada),


ance


includes


livestock


1978


fall


a decrease of


16.5 million


on potato


farms,


shrinkage


crop


percent


to December


from


last


as a result of


sture


1978 wa


year


94.6 mill


The total


dumping during


and di


grading,


scared without


ion cwt.
appear-
fed to
it gradin'


The quantity of


amounted


to 35


potatoes


.3 million


process


cwt., 4 percent


to December


less


than


seven major


States


year


FALL POTATOES:


PRODUCTION AND STOCKS


THOUS. CWT


I I I I I I I


- f5I


"'7-lll~LIum~


i


I .~ .


I


EX.EEE


x I


I r


I I







NOTE:


Stocks are defined as the quantity remaining in storage for


all pur
other 1


poses and uses, including shrinkage and waste and
osses that occur after the date of each report.


Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes generally account


for about 90 percent of the total fal


production.


age and loss and home use account for the remaining
cent.


Shrink-
10 per-


TABLE


. FALL POTATO
AND APRIL 1


:S: PRODUCTION, DECEMBER 1, JANUARY 1, FEBRUARY 1, MARCH 1,
TOTAL STOCKS, CROPS OF 1968-78 IN THE FALL STATES


:TOTAL STORES
l-------------h I6 T f mllm -lI--i--II-II-I
YEAR PRODUCTION DEC 1:FO.OI YEAR
: JAN 1 FEB 1 MAR 1 APR 1
1 (; L'tIOU i(

1968 234,832 152,810 130,350 104,995 81,940
1969 252,561 162,800 138,140 111,510 87,620
1970 267,827 175,145 150,030 122,230 96,780
1971 1/ 266,707 176,390 151,435 124,375 98,485
1972 : 249,320 158,565 134,420 107,310 83,380 58,250
1973 254,379 157,837 133,665 106,615 81,165 55,870
1974 289,342 187,935 163,095 133,425 104,116 75,905
1975 278,391 185,965 159,140 131,685 104,050 71,64O
1976 307,427 201,980 174,775 143,925 114,140 81,875
1977 307,064 206,690 178,205 149,690 120,970 89,215
1978 318,702 218,685
i Ull llf Ul illU


Th<,i
F>


1/ BEGINNING WITH 1971,
2/ APRIL 1 STOCKS EFFECT


TABLE 2.


LATE SUMMER PRODUCTION FOR N Y-L I


TIVE WITH


, WIS AND WASH HAS BEEN CLASSIFIED AS FAL


1972 CROP YEAR.


POTATOES USED FOR PROCESSING


SEVEN STATES 1977 AND 1978 CROP 2/


STATE


STORAGE
SEASON


DEC 1


JANi


FEB 1


TO
MAR 1


E
S


APRi1


1,000 CWT


IDAHO AND MALHEUR


MAINE 3/


WASH AND OTHER
AREAS, OREG

OTHER STATES 4/


TOTAL


1977-78
1978-79

1977-78
1978-79


: 1978-79

1977-78
1978-79

1977-78
1978-79


16,761
15,660

2,500
2,280

14,205
14,758

3,380
2,625

36,846
35,323


22.217


3.290


17,745


4,255


47.507


27.360


4.185


21,620


5,405


58.570


32,913


4.980


26.160


6,230


70,283


39.070


5.960


30,280


7,385


82,695


1


~4IRE.,r









44K,






23,61t <


PRODUCED. DOES NOT INCLUDE QUANTITIES USED FOR POTATO CHTPS TN Marur -


- ------------------- U flI** tlf l J4f J wn i I _n h 11 Iu i r"


2/ 1977-78 REVISED.
7/ INCLUDES MAINE GROWN POTATOES ONLY.
L_/ MICH, MINN AND N DAK.


IN WHT CH THE POTATOES WERE


. nn a......


nfldn Ult ninA.


p"


CE


I:


:"E:: ""ii~
r

E: x
I: 8,::

x,
IE~iEiE~


rr, LII~IIL







TABLE 3. POTATOES: PRODUCTION AND TOTAL STOCKS OF FALL POTATOES HELD BY GROWERS,
PROCESSORS, AND LOCAL DEALERS ON DECEMBER 1, 1977 AND DECEMBER 1, 1978


CROP OF 1977 CROP OF 1978
: : : DEC 1 STOCKS : DEC 1 STOCKS
STATE PRODUCTION : TOTAL STOCKS. AS % OF : PRODUCTION TOTAL STOCKS AS % OF
: :DEC 1, 1977 : PRODUCTION: P DEC 1, 1978:: PRODUCTION
1,000 CWT PERCENT 1,000 CWT PERCENT

CALIF 5,950 4,000 67 6,055 4,100 68
COLO 9,490 6,750 71 9,750 6,700 69
CONN 466 265 57 418 300
IDAHO 88,200 68,000 77 96,980 75,000 77
IND : 1,128 250 22 936 225 24

MAINE 28,320 22,900 81 26,180 19,900 76
MASS 888 355 40 810 440 54
MICH 8,800 5,500 63 8,670 5,800 67
MINN 12,960 10,100 78 14,910 12,000 80
MONT 2,016 1,850 92 2,088 1,900 91

NEBR 1,440 1,050 73 1,680 1,250 74
NH / 71 55 77
NY LI 7,182 3,200 45 6,175 3,000 49
UPSTATE 5,356 3,000 56 6,500 3,300 51
N DAK 21,600 16,000 74 22,400 17,000 76

OHIO : 2,744 1,150 42 2,215 950 43
OREG 25,550 15,700 61 28,488 17,700 62
PA 6,375 4,650 73 6,250 4,550 73
RI 943 210 22 902 2/
S DAK 1,062 900 85 1,190 870 73

UTAH 1,416 980 69 1,127 780 69
VT 235 165 70 168 120 71
WASH 50,600 28,400 56 50,685 32,000 63
WIS 18,038 10,200 57 17,325 10,000 58
WYO 1,474 1,060 72 1,360 800 59

23 STATE TOTAL 3/ 302,304 206,690 68 313,262 218,685 70
S-


1/ ESTIMATES DISCONTINUED AFTER
STOCKS ESTIMATES ARE MADE. NEV


977 CROP. 2/ RI INCLUDED IN CONN. 3/ EXCLUDING NEV FOR WHICH NO
977 PRODUCTION 4,760,000 CWT AND 1978 PRODUCTION 5,440,000 CWT.


To assist users in
"Root Mean Square Error"
is computed by expression
estimate as a percent of
1958-77 twenty year peri
Square Error". Probabil
liminary estimate relati
year's estimate are not


evaluating the reliabil
, a Statistical measure
g the deviations between
the final estimate and
od. The square root of
ity statements can be m
ve to the final end of
different from those in


ity
bas
n th
ave
thi
ade
seas
flue


of the December
ed on past perf
e December 1 pr
raging the squa
s average become
concerning expe
on estimate, as


nc


0
e
r
e
C


ing recent years'


1, 1978 potat
romance, has b
liminary esti
ed percentage
s statistical
ted errors in
uming that fa


0 S
een
mat
de
ly
th
cto


preliminary


stocks estimate, t
calculated. Thi
e and the final
viations for the
the "Root Mean
e current pre-
rs affecting this
estimate.


The "Root Mean Square Error" for the December 1, 1978 potato stocks estimate is 1.9 percent.
This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 219 million hundredweight will not
be above or below the final estimate by more than 1.9 percent or approximately 4.16 million hundred-
weight. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed
3.3 percent or approximately 7.22 million hundredweight.

During the past 10 years, the difference between the December 1 preliminary and final estimate
averaged 3.0 million hundredweight. The largest deviation was 6.5 and the smallest was 0.6 million
hundredweight. The preliminary December 1 estimate was below the final estimate every year during


the past


10 years.




UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA


3 1262 08862 1221


POTATO STOCKS QUALITY SURVEY
IIrjNESOTA AND NORTH DA.KOTA (PED RIVER VALLEY)


The potato


the Eco
Sample
reports


and weight


Piver


nOITICS,


stockS
tatist


bags of potatoes
will be issued


Information


, and Cooperatives


many potato growers


contained


Serv


a random basis


each month during the 19


oss for potatoes


Potato


The cooperate


Growers

of the


removed from


78-79


storage


report


in the Red Rive


were


sed on a survey conducted by
e) of North Dakota and Minnesota.


placed in storage at harvest tim'


season


at the time of sh
were selected only


and store


operators


the cumulative


At the


request


essing potato


who assisted on thi


e. Subsequent
e average grade
t of the Red
es.

s project is


reati


y apprec


iated


PO TA TO


STOCKS EQUAL


SUPVEY


AVERAGE GRADE


RED RIVEP VALLEY
OF POTATOES


1978-


CULLS


AT
- HARVEST


AFTER
: HARVEST
: 2/


AT
HARVEST


AFTER
STORAGE
: 2/


AT
HARVEST


I B'S 1


AFTER
HARVEST
2/


: WEIGHT
: LOSS


STORAGE SEASON


WHITE
RUSSET

AREA NO
AREA:


ALL SAMPLES


B'S ARE POTATOES


RED AND WHITE VARIETIES


DIAMETER OR LESS THAN 4 OUNCES.
2/ DATA NOT AVAILABLE FOR THE 1978


TO DECEMBER 1,


1978.


1977-78 STORAGE


SEASON


-FINAL


THAT MEET THE U.S. NO. GRADE BUT DO NOT MEET MINIMUM SIZE STANDARDS FORrE"-


1/4 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND RUSSET VARIETIES


-79 SEASON.


INSUFFICIENT NUMBER OF SAMPLES REMOVED FROM STORAGE PRIOR


SEASON.


qual ity


selec ted on


Valle


in th


Assoc


is ba
r Vall


ion, samp


storage


showing
ipment.
for proc


INCLUDING E'S


AT
HARVEST


: AFTER
: HARVEST
: 2/


WHITE
RUSSET


1978-79


MATCHED SAMPLES, QUALITY AT HARVEST COMPARED WITH QUALITY AFTER STORAGE FOR 1977-78


- UNDER 2 INCHES IN