Citation
Patterns of small mammal species diversity in the Brazilian Atlantic forest

Material Information

Title:
Patterns of small mammal species diversity in the Brazilian Atlantic forest Gustavo A. B. da Fonseca
Creator:
Fonseca, Gustavo A. B. da
Publication Date:
Language:
English
Physical Description:
viii, 233 leaves : ill. ; 28 cm.

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Dissertations, Academic -- Forest Resources and Conservation -- UF
Forest Resources and Conservation thesis Ph. D
Habitat (Ecology) -- Brazil ( lcsh )
Mammals -- Brazil ( lcsh )
Mammals -- Habitat ( lcsh )
Genre:
bibliography ( marcgt )
non-fiction ( marcgt )

Notes

Thesis:
Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Florida, 1988.
Bibliography:
Includes bibliographical references (leaves 216-232).
General Note:
Typescript.
General Note:
Vita.

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Holding Location:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
Copyright Gustavo A. B. da. Fonseca. Permission granted to the University of Florida to digitize, archive and distribute this item for non-profit research and educational purposes. Any reuse of this item in excess of fair use or other copyright exemptions requires permission of the copyright holder.
Resource Identifier:
025452233 ( ALEPH )
20442513 ( OCLC )
AFP7244 ( NOTIS )

Downloads

This item has the following downloads:


Full Text
PATTERNS OF SMALL MAMMAL SPECIES DIVERSITY
IN THE BRAZILIAN ATLANTIC FOREST
By
GUSTAVO A. B. DA FONSECA
A DISSERTATION PRESENTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL
OF THE UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA IN
PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS
FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY
UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA
1988


ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
First and foremost, I would like to thank Dr. John G. Robinson,
my major advisor, for his dedication to my work way beyond duty. His
advice during planning, field work, analysis and writing of this
dissertation was invaluable, and I will be forever thankful. Drs. John
Eisenberg, Larry Harris, Nigel Smith, Melvin Sunquist, and Charles
Woods, members of my committee, provided support in the planning of
this study and improvements in earlier drafts. Dr. Kent Redford also
read and commented on the manuscript. I am grateful to all of them.
My study also benefited from discussions with Drs. Thomas Lacher and
Michael Mares.
Once more, Dr. Russell A. Mittermeier supported my research
efforts by advocating my cause with the World Wildlife Fund-US, which
financed the most substantial part of the costs involved in this study.
Small mammals are also people, just smaller. Additional financial
support was provided by the Program for Studies in Tropical
Conservation, of the University of Florida, and by the Research Council
of the Federal University of Minas Gerais, Brazil. The National
Research Council of Brazil (CNPq) awarded me with a doctoral
fellowship.


Dr. Celio Valle encouraged the field work with his enthusiasm,
vision, and eternal optimism. Several people helped during field work,
too many, and in too many ways, that I apologize beforehand for failing
to mention. Cecilia Klerulff was my most dedicated and frequent field
assistant, and for that I will be eternally in debt. My small mammal
data from the Rio Doce Park was partially collected by Jody Stallings
and his crew. This study greatly benefited from his friendship and
discussions while I was in Brazil. I would also like to thank Ludmilla
Aguiar, limar Bastos, Sonia Rigueira, Carlos Alberto Pinto, Ederson
Machado (sometimes), Silverio Machado, Ney CarnevalU, Luiz Fernando
Mello, Gisela Herrmann, Jairo Vieira, Eduardo Veado, Eduardo Sabato,
Luiz Paulo Pinto, and Maria Cristina Alves.
Mr. Feliciano Abdalla and Dr. Antonio Cupertino kindly allowed me
to work on their farms and provided housing. "Santinho" let us stay in
his house at the expense of family problems, and I am thankful to him.
The State Forest Institute of Minas Gerais (IEF) provided me with
accommodations and gasoline at the R1o Doce State Park. I am very
grateful to the staff of the Park. Eng. Ftal. Jose Lourenco Ladeira
identified the trees 1n and outside of the Rio Doce Park. I am also
indebted to him. Drs. M. Carleton, K. Creighton, L. Emmons, G. Musser,
P. Myers, and J. Patton generously identified the small mammal voucher
specimens.
Even risking making her angry, I cannot help but to recognize
that my wifes love was as helpful as her intellectual stimulation and


support. My son Bruno tolerated my bad moods and I hope to be able to
repay him in the future. My parents continued to provide me with love,
help and support. The knowledge that I can count on them at all times
is one of my most valuable strengths. To all of them, I emotionally
dedicate this dissertation.
I would also like to dedicate this work to Drs. Celio Valle and
Russell Mlttermeier. Together and unselfishly they managed, in less
than 5 years, to train and put to work more Brazilian biologists than
others had in the last three decades. The vast majority of young
Brazilian ecologists, previously so prone to early infanticide, and who
will be working in Brazil in the next decade, will certainly have
crossed the paths of these two visionary people. The history of
Brazilian biological conservation sciences will soon have to pay its
dues to Celio and Russ.
iv


TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ii
ABSTRACT Vi i
CHAPTER
1 INTRODUCTION
General Background 1
Study Organization 4
2 BIOLOGY AND NATURAL HISTORY OF BRAZILIAN
ATLANTIC FOREST SMALL MAMMALS
Introduction 7
Materials and Methods 9
Study Sites 9
Climate 12
Trapping 13
Results and Species Accounts 19
Discussion 83
Seasonality and Resource Use 83
Life History Patterns 89
Population Turnover 91
3 SMALL MAMMAL SPECIES DIVERSITY IN
BRAZILIAN TROPICAL PRIMARY AND SECONDARY
FORESTS OF DIFFERENT SIZES
Introduction 93
Materials and Methods 97
The Region 97
Study Sites 98
Trapping 100
Habitat Variables 102
Statistical Methods and
Data Analysis 104
Dependent Variables 104
Predictors of Community
Structure 115
Primary Versus Secondary Forests 116
Area Size Effects 117
Results 118
Discussion 145
v


Conservation and Management
Implications 154
4 THE RELATIVE ROLE OF HABITAT SELECTION,
COMPETITION AND PREDATOR PRESSURE ON THE
STRUCTURE OF TROPICAL FOREST SMALL MAMMAL
COMMUNITIES
Introduction 157
Materials and Methods 161
Study Sites 161
Trapping 163
Habitat Variables 165
Statistical Methods and Data Analysis 166
Results 170
Species Composition and
Abundance Patterns 170
Habitat Selection 176
Species Interactions 183
Predation 184
Discussion 192
5 CONCLUSIONS AND SYNTHESIS 210
LITERATURE CITED 216
BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH 233
VI


Abstract of Dissertation Presented to the Graduate School
of the University of Florida in Partial Fulfillment of the
Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy
PATTERNS OF SMALL MAMMAL SPECIES DIVERSITY
IN THE BRAZILIAN ATLANTIC FOREST
By
GUSTAVO A. B. DA FONSECA
August 1988
Chairman: John G. Robinson
Major Department: Wildlife and Range Sciences, School of
Forest Resources and Conservation
The influences that habitat structure, area size, and species
interactions have on the species richness and diversity of small mammal
communities 1n the Brazilian Atlantic forest were investigated in a
17-months study. Three primary and three secondary forest plots of
different sizes were subjected to a capture/recapture program.
Trapping effort totaled 57,120 trap nights. A total of 19 small mammal
species (rodents and marsupials) were registered during the course of
the study, with species richness and diversity achieving their highest
at the second-growth forest plot of large size. Small mammal species
diversity only responded to the increase in area size among secondary
forests, with primary forests being fairly poor communities. Species


richness, species diversity and total number of individuals in
communities were found to be correlated with several habitat attributes
characteristic of second-growth forests. The common opossum, Didelphis
marsupial is. is a dominant species in these small mammal communities.
Densities of other small mammal species were found to be depressed by
opossums. The higher predator pressure on opossums by mammalian
carnivores in the larger forest patches may be the factor responsible
for allowing plots of increasing size to be more species rich and
diverse.
vi 1 i


CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION
General Background
The Brazilian Atlantic forest is one of the most threatened
ecosystems in the world, with habitat reduced to small islands and very
little remaining in undisturbed state (Mittermeier et al., 1982;
Fonseca, 1985a). These isolated areas are characterized mostly by
second growth under different regeneration stages. The consequences
for the vertebrate fauna inhabiting these habitat fragments is not
known, except for a few primate species. This is aggravated by the
fact that not much information is available on the natural history of
Atlantic forest mammalian species. By investigating species
composition, diversity and relative abundances of small mammal
communities of these tropical forests, this study will address these
questions.
Small mammal community ecology research has revealed several
parameters that, to variable degrees, explain underlying community
characteristics and organization. Local species composition and
relative abundances of small mammals and birds have been partially
explained by several different measures of habitat structure and
1


heterogeneity (Rosenzweig and Winakur, 1969; Johnson, 1975;
MCloskey, 1976; Dueser and Shugart, 1978; James and Warner, 1982;
August, 1983, 1984; Lynch and Whigham, 1984). As has been observed
with plants (Horn, 1974), animal communities can sometimes be expected
to decrease in diversity in late successional stages (Connell, 1978),
possibly as a consequence of the lower degrees of spatial heterogeneity
in climax forests. Therefore, the elimination of primary forests in
the Brazilian Atlantic region may not have resulted in the decrease in
small mammal species diversity. Within this framework, this study
investigated the nature of small mammal species richness and diversity
of second growth, which is increasingly a characteristic of the present
day habitat patches of the Atlantic forest.
The size of habitat fragments has also been used as a determinant
of mammalian species richness, especially in insular communities
(Dueser and Brown, 1980; Lomolino, 1984). MacArthur and Wilson (1967)
proposed an immigration-extinction equilibrium model to explain number
of species in islands. As the size of an island increases, the
probability of species extinction decreases. If the island is close
enough to a potential source of colonists, extinction is somewhat
compensated for by the frequent addition of new colonists, but if the
degree of isolation is the same for two islands of different sizes, the
larger one will tend to support richer communities. Several studies on
different taxa have shown that continental habitat patches can
sometimes behave like islands, if the surrounding habitat provides


3
effective isolation from the sources of colonists (e.g.
Vuilleumeier, 1970; Seifert, 1975; Brown, 1978; Faeth and Kane, 1978;
Harris, 1984; Blake and Karr, 1987). Notwithstanding the fact that a
few attempts have been made (Malcolm, 1987), area-size relationships
have yet to be demonstrated for tropical small mammal communities. The
structure of the habitat may also influence community composition and
relative abundances in islands of increasing size. As Williams (1964)
pointed out, as the size of the area increases, the probability that
additional habitats with their distinct species will be incorporated
into samples also increases. Therefore, both factors have to be taken
into consideration in investigating the mechanisms that promote species
diversity.
Recently, studies have began to incorporate both area-size
relationships and habitat structure characteristics into models
explaining community parameters. These have occasionally successfully
separated the "pure" or dynamic effects of the size of the area from
those related to environment structure (e.g., Simberloff, 1976; Weaver
and Kellman, 1981; Buckley, 1982; 1985; Boecklen, 1986). In addition,
both area and habitat structure can have an underlying effect in the
determination of patterns of species interactions within communities,
which in turn can potentially affect species composition and relative
abundances of these assemblages. Competitive interplays are known to
exert influence upon small mammal community characteristics (Price,
1978; Dueser and Porter, 1986; Lacher et al., in press), but mixed


4
results have been obtained in the attempts to demonstrate competition
(Murua et al., 1987).
I believe that previous models, although successful to various
degrees in their predictive power, were commonly too simplistic. The
result is that significant amounts of variation in species richness and
diversity between communities are left unexplained. Furthermore,
single parameter models may conceal the underlying mechanisms by which
species diversity is promoted and maintained (Connor and McCoy, 1979).
Therefore, their application to conservation schemes can be potentially
dangerous (see for example, Zimmerman and Blerregaard, 1986). The
multivariate approach, which takes into account the many more potential
influences arising from area-size relationships, habitat structure, and
species interactions, was chosen for this study. This approach favors
the information conveying value of the method rather than the
quantitative models it can possibly generate. Although the method
results in models that may have limited applicability to different
habitats, they frequently have higher heuristic value and are more
biologically realistic.
Study Organization
The core of this study is presented in three main chapters. They
are meant to either stand alone as individual studies or constitute
additive sections of a major work. Chapter 2 deals with the biology


5
and natural history of the small mammal species that were recorded in
this study. It presents the general aspects of reproduction and
population dynamics, substrate use, diet, movements and persistence in
traplines, for the species with large enough sample sizes to allow
analysis. Morphometric data on all species are also presented. This
section serves as a data base for the understanding of the following
chapters.
In Chapter 3, I deal mostly with the relation between habitat
structure and area size, and the way in which they affect diversity and
relative abundance of small mammals. Communities are studied as
collective entities, with very little emphasis placed on the individual
species. Six forest plots of different sizes and levels of disturbance
were sampled for small mammals. In addition to species richness, the
total number of individuals in the communities, and the Shannon-Wiener
species diversity index, I also developed a second index of community
structure that takes into account species abundances. I used a large
number of vegetation parameters as independent variables indicative of
habitat structure. Sizes of the forest plots sampled constituted the
second most important variable under study.
The third main chapter, Chapter 4, investigates the structure of
small mammal communities in terms of requirements of individual species
and the competitive interactions among these species. It also examines
the possible influences that habitat requirements and size of the area
can have on the outcome of community composition and relative


6
abundances. It explores the mechanisms by which patterns observed in
the previous chapter are determined.
Finally, Chapter 5 offers a synthesis of the results, the
conclusions, and provides a summary of overall major findings. It also
explores possible conservation applications of the results of this
research.


CHAPTER 2
BIOLOGY AND NATURAL HISTORY OF BRAZILIAN ATLANTIC FOREST
SMALL MAMMALS
Introduction
The neotropical region encompasses some of the most threatened
ecosystems in the world, and yet the mammalian fauna of this area
still remains very poorly known (Mares and Genoways, 1982). In South
America, the Brazilian Atlantic forest has been the vegetation
formation subjected to the highest rate of destruction, with less than
5 % of the region possessing some form of forest cover (Fonseca,
1985a), and probably less than 1 % in undisturbed state (Mittermeier et
al., 1982). Nonetheless, the few natural history studies conducted on
its fauna have indicated that species diversity is quite high, with
many faunal elements being unique to the region (Mello-Leitao, 1946;
Muller, 1973; Fonseca, unpublished data). The pioneer works of Moojen
(1952), Vieira (1955), and Cabrera (1957; 1961) provide a general data
base indicating that there are at least 129 species of non-volant
mammals in the Atlantic forest region, about 40 of which are endemic.
Were the taxonomy of most of the groups better understood, other
species would probably be described. There are at least 23 marsupial
7


8
and 57 rodent species described for the region, of which 39 X and 53 X,
respectively, are endemic to the region.
Because of past and present habitat destruction, the fauna is
increasingly isolated into small patches, and many members of this
unique ecosystem are now endangered. This situation has been
documented for the most conspicuous elements of the mammalian fauna,
the primates (Coimbra-FiIho and Mittermeier, 1977; Mittermeier et al.,
1982; Fonseca, 1985b). Nonetheless, the rich and highly endemic small
mammal fauna of the Brazilian Atlantic forest region has been the
subject of very few long-term studies, especially when compared to the
Amazon region (e.g., Pine, 1973; Lovejoy et al., 1984; 1986; Terborgh
et al., 1984; Malcolm, 1987) or the Cerrado (Alho, 1981; Alho et al.,
1986; Fonseca and Redford, 1984; Lacher et al., in press; Nltikman and
Mares, 1987). The only detailed study of Atlantic forest small mammals
is now over 40-years-old (Davis, 1946).
Historically, the Brazilian Atlantic forest extended from the
coast to the eastern and portions of the western slopes of the coastal
mountains (Hueck, 1972; Alonso, 1977), an area of approximately 700,000
square kilometers. Where rainfall permits the presence of tall,
evergreens, this type of forest extends into the western slopes of the
coastal formation. Due to a rain shadow, the vegetation of the western
slopes, where this study was conducted, possesses a number of deciduous
tree species, which lose their leaves during the approximately 6 months
of the dry season. During the wet season, however, the forests of both


9
the eastern and western regions are physiognomically ^distinguishable.
In addition, the faunal elements are mostly the same, generally
belonging to the same biogeographical region (Muller, 1973).
The objective of this study was to investigate several aspects of
the biology and natural history of eastern Brazilian non-volant small
mammals. During a period of 17 months, data on the general aspects of
population dynamics, breeding, substrate use and movement patterns of
small mammals (marsupials and rodents) were collected in six forest
plots, at three main sites in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil.
Morphometric data were also collected. Species composition, relative
abundances and other community structure patterns are presented
elsewhere (Chapters 3 and 4).
Materials and Methods
Study Sites
Small mammal communities of six forest plots, two at each of
three sites in the state of Minas Gerais, were the subjects of this
study (Figure 2-1). At each site, a primary and a secondary forest
plots were selected. A set of three parallel transect trapping lines
was established in each. The primary forest plots showed vertical
stratification, with an average canopy height of 19 meters. The
herbaceous stratum was somewhat sparse, while the midstory was


10
Figure 2-1. Location of study sites:
county; (2) Parque Estadual Florestal
Fazenda Montes Claros, Caratinga and
(1) Fazenda Esmeralda,
do Rio Doce, Marilela
Ipanema counties.
Rio Casca
county; (3)


11
generally well developed. The secondary forests, on the other hand,
were mostly in their mid-stages of succession. Average canopy height
was approximately 12 meters; herbaceous cover was frequently extensive,
with masses of tangled vines being a common occurrence. Epiphytes and
emergents were conspicuously absent from secondary forests.
The first site was Fazenda Esmeralda, located on the county of
Rio Casca. The farm is under extensive agricultural use, with very
little remaining under forest cover. Located along the plains of the
Rio Doce River, the farm was covered almost completely by pristine
forest as recently as 1964. Wood extracting rights were then sold to
the largest steel industry of the state of Minas Gerais and by 1970
most of the farm was deforested. Forest patches located on the top of
two hills were selected for the study, one with a 60 ha. second growth,
and the other with 80 ha. of primary forest, known locally as "Lagoa
Fria.
Fazenda Montes Claros was selected as the second site for this
study. It is a coffee and cattle farm located within the counties of
Ipanema and Caratinga. The total area of the farm is about 1,200 ha.,
860 ha. of which remain under forest cover. A research station under
the administration of the Brazilian Foundation for Conservation of
Nature (FBCN) and the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG) was
established in the farm in 1983. A second growth forest patch at
Fazenda Montes Claros, known as "Jao" was selected, and another under
primary forest, "Matao," was also used.


12
The third site was the Rio Doce State Park, which has portions of
its area within the county of Harileia. The park, with its 35,973 ha.,
constitutes the largest continuous area under tropical forest in the
state of Minas Gerais. It was created in 1944 and has been ever since
under the jurisdiction of the Government of the state of Minas Gerais.
Since the creation of the State of Minas Gerais Forest Institute (IEF)
in the late 1960s, the park has been under its administration. It has
recently become one of the best maintained and protected areas under
the Brazilian Parks system. Because of several extensive fires in the
1960s, a considerable area of the park is second growth. One of these,
"Mata do Hotel" was selected as a study area. A pristine primary
forest, known locally as "Campolina," constituted the second patch
selected for study within the Rio Doce Park.
Climate
Climatological data were collected at all three sites, but
because of the extreme similarity in temperature and rainfall regimes
among study sites, only information collected at Fazenda Montes Claros
is presented here.
Hueck (1972) states that rainfall for the western slopes of the
Atlantic forest region 1s always below 1,600 mm annually. In some
areas, it can achieve a little over 1,000 mm. During the study period,
the region experienced an unusually dry period, as we can observe in
the climatogram of Walter (1971) constructed with data collected at


13
Fazenda Montes Claros (Figure 2-2): total rainfall for the first 12
months of trapping was 850 mm, while for the last 12 months rainfall
totaled 931 mm. Rainfall is highly seasonal, being concentrated
between the months of September and February (Figure 2-2). Average
monthly precipitation for the rainy season was 128 mm, while dry season
rainfall averaged only 30 mm monthly.
Mean minimum annual temperature during the study period was about
18 C, close to the average for the region (Hueck, 1972). Average daily
differences between minimum and maximum temperatures are quite constant
throughout the year. Rainfall maxima coincide with the warmest months
of the year, while winters are usually very dry. For the purpose of
this analysis, the dry season is considered to occur between the months
of March and August, and the wet season between September and February.
T rapping
Three transect lines 300 meters long were established in each
plot at each of the three sites. These transects were as parallel to
each other as possible and separated by 100 meters. Each transect Une
possessed 16 trapping stations 20 meters apart. Traps were placed in
suitable locations within a 3.5 meter radius measured around center of
station. A squirrel-size Tomahawk Uve trap (Tomahawk Live Trap Co.,
one-door folding trap, size 203, Tomahawk, WI) was placed on the ground
at each station. At every other station, a second Tomahawk trap of the


14
300
MONTHLY RAINFALL (mm)
MEAN TEMPERATURE ( C)
RAINFALL SURPLUS
DROUGHT
Jun Jul AugSepOct NovDec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul AugSepOct
150
135
120
105
90
75
60
45
15
0
MONTHS
Figure 2-2. Climate diagram of Walter (1971) for the forests of the
western slopes of the Atlantic forest, built using data collected at
Fazenda Montes Claros between June, 1985 and October, 1986. The
diagram indicates periods of drought and of water surplus. The dry
season can be defined between the months of March and August.
Temperatures are given in oC, and rainfall in mm.


15
same size was wired either to a branch or vine at heights from 1 to 4
meters high. In addition to these traps, every other station possessed
a mouse-sized collapsible Sherman trap (H. B. Sherman Traps, Inc.,
Tallahassee, FL), with alternation of ground and tree traps. Moreover,
the two outermost transect lines had, at every other station, a large
80 x 30 x 30 centimeters wire home-crafted live trap. Therefore, each
outer line possessed 16 ground Tomahawk traps, 8 tree-bound Tomahawk
traps, 4 ground and 4 tree-bound Sherman traps, and 8 ground large wire
traps. The total for each outer line was 40 traps. The mid-line did
not have large traps, but a total of 24 Tomahawk and 8 Sherman traps.
In summary, each forest plot had 48 trap stations disposed into 3
transects of 16 stations each, and a total of 112 permanent based traps
(Table 2-1). With the exception of Sherman traps, all traps were
closed at the end of each five night trapping session and left in
place. Sherman traps were removed, washed, and replaced each month.
Trapping took place between June of 1985 and October of 1986,
i.e., for 17 consecutive months. Each forest plot was trapped for five
consecutive nights every month. During the course of the study, a
total of 9,520 trap nights were accumulated for each plot. Therefore,
trapping effort for all six forest plots together totaled 57,120 trap
nights.
Fresh pineapples, oatmeal and a cotton ball soaked with a
commercial codfish oil solution were used as baits. Traps were checked


16
Table 2-1. Schematic representation of the first four stations in
transect trap lines. Additional stations are replicates of the first
four. Each trapline is 300 meters long, separated from each other by
100 meters. Stations are disposed within each line at every 20 meters.
LINE ONE
LINE TWO
100m 100m
LINE THREE
#1
#1
#1
-Ground
-Ground
-Ground
Tomahawk
Tomahawk
Tomahawk
-Above-Ground
-Ground
-Above-Ground
Tomahawk
Sherman
Tomahawk
20m
#2
#2
#2
-Ground
-Ground
-Ground
Tomahawk
Tomahawk
Tomahawk
-Large Trap
-Above-Ground
-Large Trap
-Above-Ground
Tomahawk
-Above-Ground
Sherman
Sherman
20m
#3
#3
#3
-Ground
-Ground
-Ground
Tomahawk
Tomahawk
Tomahawk
-Above-Ground
-Above-Ground
-Above-Ground
Tomahawk
Sherman
Tomahawk
20m
#4
#4
#4
-Ground
-Ground
-Ground
Tomahawk
Tomahawk
Tomahawk
-Large Trap
-Above-Ground
-Large Trap
-Ground
Tomahawk
-Ground
Sherman
Sherman
#16 #16 #16


17
every morning for captures and for adequacy of bait, which was replaced
as needed.
For each individual, the following information was recorded:
1. Species. If not readily identifiable, the individual was
preserved for later taxonomic identification. The only individuals
which were consistently prepared as skins and skulls were
representative of Orvzomvs trinitatis and Oryzomys nigripes. The
former shows a high degree of variability in skin color and pattern and
was considered, during field work, as belonging to more than one
species. Whenever possible, animals that died 1n the traps were also
preserved. Moreover, live trapping and snap-trapping were conducted on
other locations within the same forest type for preparation of voucher
specimens and determination of stomach contents. Taxonomic
identification of voucher specimens was provided through the kindness
of the following specialists: Drs. M. Carleton, C. Creighton, L.
Emmons, G. Musser, P. Myers, and J. Patton.
2. Location in grid.
3. Individual identification. If already tagged with metal fish
tags (Fish and small animal tag, size 1, National Band and Tag Co.,
Newport, KY), the animal was promptly released; otherwise the animal
was tagged. Individuals with positive taxonomic identification were
released at the same station where captured.
4. Sex.
5.Weight.


18
6. Body length.
7. Tail length.
8. Ear length.
8. Hind foot length.
9. Reproductive condition. Female rodents were checked for
perforated vaginas. I also noticed whether individuals were pregnant
(in late stages) or lactating. Male rodents were considered in
breeding condition if testes were descended. Female marsupials were
considered in breeding condition if neonates were found in either pouch
or attached to nipples, or if the nipple area showed signs of recent
nursing by previous litter. Male marsupials with testes of reduced
size were considered pre-pubertal, while for some species (Metachirus
nudicaudatus. Marmosa incana. Marmosa cinrea. Marmosa agiUs. and
Philander opossum) abdominal or sternal scent gland activity indicated
breeding condition. We also recorded any pouch young old enough to be
sexed.
10. Behavior upon release.
Analysis of variance (Procedure GLM: PC-SAS, SAS Institute, Cary,
NC) was used to test the null hypothesis of absence of sexual
dimorphism, using the following morphological characters: weight, body
length, tail length, hind foot length, and ear length. Kruskal-Wal1 is
tests were performed to test for differences in persistence times in
traplines among sexes.


19
Since the number of arboreal traps in each set of three traplines
(36; 32 %) was different from that of terrestrial ones (76; 68 %),
analysis of differential trapping success of arboreal versus
terrestrial traps was conducted with corrections to account for the
differential probability of trapping in the different strata. Where
sample size permitted, chi-square tests were performed to test the null
hypothesis of lack of difference in substrate use among sexes. For
this analysis, all proportions were arc-sin transformed (Sokal and
Rohlf, 1981).
Results and Species Accounts
During the course of this study, a total of 692 individuals of 8
marsupial and 11 rodent species were caught 1,366 times, in all six
forest plots (Table 2-2). One individual of the species Monodelphis
americana was trapped on one of the auxiliary lines at the primary
forest of Fazenda Montes Claros. Mean trapping success, averaged over
17 months of trapping at all sites, was 2.4 %. For most species,
trapping success was much higher during the cold, dry months, dropping
sharply around October with the onset of rains.
Caluromys philander. Woolly opossums were only registered for
the Rio Doce State Park. Although occasionally trapped on the ground,
this species is mostly arboreal (Davis, 1947; Nowak and Paradiso,


20
1983). In this study, only one individual was captured on the ground.
Upon release, all individuals climbed into canopies, disappearing from
sight at heights of about 10 meters. Both the small number of arboreal
traps (32 %), relative to terrestrial ones, and the absence of traps in
higher strata of the forest, may have accounted for the low trapping
success for this species. Only three males and three females were
captured during the course of the study. One female was recaptured
once. Morphometric data on these individuals are presented in Table
2-3.
Didelphis marsupialis. Opossums occurred at all sites and
represented the most common small mammal species captured in the
majority of forest plots. This is a generalist species, found in
all habitat types (Hunsaker, 1977; Miles et al., 1981; Alho et al.,
1986). Adult males were significantly heavier than females (Table
2-4). Hind feet were also sexually dimorphic. Other biometric
parameters did not vary between sexes.
Opossums have been previously described as being mainly
terrestrial, although they are able to climb opportunely while
foraging (Miles et al., 1981). These generalizations were
confirmed here. Overall, 73 % of marsupialis captures were from
terrestrial traps, while 93 % of individuals released also remained
on the ground. However, young opossums tend to use aerial


21
Table 2-2. Trapping results for all six forest plots together during 17
months of trapping.
SPECIES
Number of
First Captures
Total Number of
Captures
Caluromys philander
6
7
Didelphis marsupialis
144
404
Harmosa aqilis
7
11
Marmosa cinerea
43
120
Harmosa incana
127
220
Marmosa microtarsus
1
1
Metachi rus nudicaudatus
105
156
Philander opossum
14
29
Abrawayomvs ruschi
1
1
Akodon cursor
29
53
Nectomys sauamioes
10
14
Oryzomys caoito
1
2
Orvzomvs nlqrioes
5
5
Oryzomys subflavus
1
1
Oryzomys trinitatis
84
99
Oxymycterus roberti
2
2
Rhioidomys mastacalis
1
1
Echymys so.
1
1
Proechimvs setosus
110
239
TOTAL
692
1366


22
Table 2-3. Biometric data for three males and three females of
Caluromvs philander. Weight is given in gms, and other body
measurements in mm.
MALE
FEMALE
Mean St.Dev.
Mean St.Dev.
Weight
171.3
57.6
180.5
40.5
Body length
210.7
30.0
206.8
11.4
Tail length
301.0
25.9
298.8
20.7
Hind Foot
36.3
2.5
36.3
2.6
Ear length
33.3
1.5
30.5
1.9


23
Table 2-4. Biometric data for adult male and female Didelphis
marsupial Is. Weight is given in gms, and other body measurements in
mm. N=number of individuals, St. Dev.=Standard Deviation. P refers to
p-value associated with analysis of variance for sexual dimorphism
(n.s.=p>0.05;*=p<0.05; **=p<0.01; ***=p<0.001).
MALE FEMALE
Mean
St.Dev.
N
Mean
St.Dev.
N
P
Weight
1,024.0
361.4
63
946.0
157.0
34
tt
Body length
354.0
40.4
63
354.0
29.7
34
n. s.
Tail length
348.5
30.9
62
349.6
27.4
31
n.s.
Hind Foot
58.1
3.9
62
56.1
4.3
34
**
Ear length
51.2
4.2
62
50.0
3.6
34
n.s.


Frequency
24
Males ~1 Females
Figure 2-3. Frequency of Individuals of [h marsupial is persisting
within traplines.


25
substrate more often than adults. Approximately 23 % of the
individuals released (11 out of 37) climbed into trees and/or onto
vines. The same result was obtained by Davis (1947). There were
no significant differences in substrate use between adult males and
females.
A total of 79 males and 64 females were captured 196 and 204
times, respectively, with sex ratios of both number of individuals
and total captures deviating very little from 1:1. Based upon
recaptures, males did not persist for long periods on grids,
averaging 1.74 months. Females stayed within the traplines an
average of 2.6 months, but this difference is not significant
(p=0.14; Figure 2-3). Record persistence times were achieved by
one female and one male, which were recorded for a total of 12
months. Fleming (1972) found similar low persistence times for
Didelphis marsupial is in Panama. If the data from Sunquist et al.
(1987) with marsupial is from Venezuela is extrapolated to the
present study, the low persistence times can probably be attributed
to high mortality rates rather than to dispersal.
The distance travelled between successive captures were not
significantly different between males and females. The overall
mean was 143.4 meters (maximum=400 meters), slightly higher than
the figure given by Fleming (1972). However, similar to grid
trapping methods, traplines underestimate actual distances


26
travelled in a night, which was found by Sunquist et al. (1987),
using radio transmitters, to average one kilometer.
Even though trapping success during the first three months of
study was very high, population levels, as reflected by the number
of captures, did not appear to vary between dry and rainy seasons
(Figure 2-4). Reproductive activity, on the other hand, was highly
seasonal, with most females breeding just prior and well into the
rainy season. The number of juveniles recorded also followed this
same pattern (Figure 2-5). Two females were recorded as having two
consecutive litters, the first in August, and the second in
October. The same has been observed by Collins in Brazil (1973, in
Nowak and Paradiso, 1983). The occurrence of two consecutive
litters has also been reported elsewhere for Ch marsupial is in
Colombia (Tyndale-Biscoe and Mackenzie, 1976) and southeastern
Brazil (Davis, 1946).
An interesting result was the decrease in opossum abundances
during the second yearss late dry season, especially in the small
forest plots. Smaller plots are where (h marsupial is was most
found to be most abundant during the first year of trapping, and
capture success was much lower than for the previous year (Figure
2-4). The reason for this apparent population crash is not yet
clear, but may be due to a reduction in food resources that
occurred as a result of a severe dry season. Although the
reduction in abundance was observed across all plots, smaller


27
Jun Jul AugSepOctNovDecJanFebMar AprMayJun Jul AugSepOct
I I Number of Captures HH Rainy Season Limits
Figure 2-4. Number of captures of D^. marsupial is according to monthly
trapping period. Straight lines enclose boundaries of rainy season
(September to February).


28
I I Breeding Females
I Number ot Juveniles
Mean i-iaimai
Figure 2-5. Number of breeding females and juveniles of D.
marsupial is. according to monthly trapping period. Line represents
mean daily rainfall (mm).


29
forests experienced the highest decrease, lending support to this
hypothesis, since populations inhabiting smaller plots should be
more susceptible to a decrease in food resources.
Average litter size of pouch young was 8.6, with a M:F sex
ratio of 1.7:1.0, highly skewed towards males (Table 2-5).
Overall, two thirds of females produced male biased litters. This
average litter size is much higher than those obtained in Colombia
by Tyndale-Biscoe and Mackenzie (1976) or by Fleming (1973) in
Panama. Both studies reported averages of approximately 6.5 young.
In addition, these studies found that sex ratios of pouch young did
not differ from a 1:1 ratio. Austad and Sunquist (1986) were able
to experimentally induce male-biased sex ratios in D¡_ marsupial is
by providing dietary supplementation. Therefore, relative to the
sites studied by Fleming (1973) and Tydale-Biscoe and Mackenzie
(1976), the forests sampled in the present research may be more
productive for common opossums, which may have resulted in the
observed skewed sex ratios.
Marmosa agilis. This small arboreal marsupial can be fairly
common in gallery forests of the Cerrado region (Nitikman and
Mares, 1987), but was infrequently caught in this study. The first
individual of the species was recorded only after 12 months of
trapping. In total, three males and four females were caught 11
times in two forest plots. Ten of the eleven captures (91 %) were


30
Table 2-5. Litter sizes and sex ratios of Didelphis marsupial is
pouch young.
ID Number
Number of
Female Young
Number of
Male Young
Total
Young
Sex Ratio
M: F
0076
-
-
9
-
0088
-
-
9
-
0055
-
-
7
-
0072
-
-
9
-
0087
-
-
9
-
0126*
-
-
3
-
0156
-
-
7
-
0162*
-
-
4
-
0067
-
-
7
-
0192
-
-
7
-
0193
-
-
10
-
0209
3
6
9
2.0:1.0
0072
-
-
9
-
0081
-
-
11
-
0220
-
-
8
-
0251
-
-
8
-
0257
-
-
8
-
0258
-
-
8
-
0274
3
5
8
1.7:1.0
0209**
2
7
9
3.5:1.0
0278
-
-
5
-
0281
3
4
7
1.3:1.0
0227
5
5
10
1.0:1.0
0480
5
5
10
1.0:1.0
14/10
2
7
9
3.5:1.0
42P
2
5
7
2.5:1.0
11/12
4
4
8
1.0:1.0
Means
8.6
1.7:1.0
Females were in poor condition, with multiple injuries.
Therefore, their litter sizes were not used in calculating means.
Second consecutive litter.


31
on traps placed on trees or vines, which is a capture rate on arboreal
traps similar to that obtained by Nitikman and Mares (1987). Alho et
al. (1986) also found M^_ agi 1 is to be preferentially arboreal in
gallery forest habitat.
Except for two males and one female, which were recorded in
traplines for two months, no other animal was recaptured in subsequent
trapping sessions. The only individual for which data on movement
between trapping stations were obtained travelled 40 meters in
consecutive nights, a figure very close to that determined by Nitikman
and Mares (1987). Biometric data on Marmosa agi lis are presented in
Table 2-6.
Marmosa cinerea. This species is one of the largest within the
genus (Nowak and Paradiso, 1983) and was fairly common at the Rio Doce
Park, but was conspicuously absent from both Fazenda Montes Claros and
Fazenda Esmeralda. Most individuals were captured during the cold, dry
months (Figure 2-6), with trapping success during the rainy season
being fairly low. Lactating females, on the other hand, were only
trapped during the rainy season, indicating that the high trapping
success of the following months reflected the addition of recently born
young into the population.
A total of 8 males and 35 females were caught 120 times
(Table 2-2), making it the species with the highest recapture rate in


32
Table 2-6. Biometric data for four males and one female Marmosa agi1 is.
Weight is given in gms, and other body measurements in mm.
MALE
FEMALE
Mean
St.Dev.
N
Mean St.Dev.
N
Weight
29.5
11.3
4
25.0
1
Body length
109.3
13.2
4
99.0
1
Tail length
155.3
7.1
4
151.0
1
Hind Foot
18.3
1.5
4
17.0
1
Ear length
20.5
0.6
4
21.0
1


33
20
15
10
5
Jun Jul AugSepOctNovDec JanFebMar AprMay Jun Jul AugSepOct
dU Number of Captures IM Rainy Season Limits
Figure 2-6. Number of captures of Mj. cine rea according to monthly
trapping period. Straight lines enclose boundaries of rainy season
(September to February).


34
Differential Trapping Success (in %)
Terrestrial Traps 1 1 Arboreal Traps
Figure 2-7. Differential trapping success (in percentages) of M^.
cinerea in arboreal and terrestrial traps.


35
this study (31 % for males and 37 % for females). While sex ratio for
first captures was 1.6:1.0, total captures approximated a 1.0:1.0
ratio. This might indicate that females are captured more frequently
than males, which may be due to the fact that males are more transient
than females (chi-square=5.17; df=1, p<0.02), and averaged only about
1.8 months in traplines. Females, on the other hand, persisted in the
areas for an average of 3.8 months. The longest tenancy in traplines
was also by a female that was recorded present for 14 months. In
addition, males also travelled farther between successive captures than
females (males=142 meters, maximum:380 meters; females=80 meters,
maximum:180 meters), which also supports the contention that transient
males are a frequent occurrence.
On average, adult males were found to be slightly heavier than
females. However, the species did not show sexual dimorphism for any
biometric parameter measured (Table 2-7). Although trapped frequently
on the ground, M;. cinerea appeared to be primarily arboreal, especially
the females (Figure 2-7). The behavior upon release also revealed
that, while 56 % of the males remained on the ground, only 27 % of the
females displayed a similar behavior. Terborgh et al. (1984) list M^_
cinerea as being able to exploit several forest strata, from understory
to canopy. Miles et al. (1981) determined M^_ cinerea to be mostly
arboreal, with all nests also located above ground.


36
Table 2-7. Biometric data for adult male and female Marmosa cinerea.
Weight is given in gms, and other body measurements in mm. P refers to
p-value associated with analysis of variance for sexual dimorphism
(n.s.=p>0.05; *=p<0.05; **=p<0.01; ***=p<0.001).
MALE
FEMALE
Mean
St.Dev.
N
Mean
St.Dev.
N
P
Weight
117.3
29.4
24
99.7
16.7
11
n.s.
Body length
176.1
20.0
24
177.1
20.5
11
n. s.
Tail length
258.9
26.0
24
261.7
17.9
11
n.s.
Hind Foot
28.9
3.9
24
28.0
3.1
11
n.s.
Ear length
30.4
2.8
24
29.7
2.1
11
n.s.


37
Frequency
Figure 2-8. Frequency of individuals of incana persisting within
traplines.


38
Marmosa incana. This was the second most frequently caught
species in this study. It was present in all six forest plots
sampled. Eighty males and 44 females were captured a total of 220
times. Three individuals escaped before their sex could be
determined. Sex ratio for first captures was 1.8:1.0, and 2.9:1.0
for all captures. Males also persisted on the traplines more than
females (chi-square=8.1, df=1, p<0.005), on average 1.9 and 1.2
months, respectively (Figure 2-8). Therefore, in contrast with M.
cinerea, male M. incana appear to be more sedentary than females.
M^. incana males travelled an average of 64.7 meters between
successive captures (maximum=200 meters), while the only female
recaptured in the same trapping session travelled 40 meters.
Marmosa incana adult males were sexually dimorphic for all
morphometric characters measured, with males being, on average,
20 % heavier than adult females (Table 2-8). Body length of males
was also 14 % larger than for females. Adult females also lack the
sternal gland, which is functional in males during the breeding
season.
As with KL cinerea. trapping success increased markedly with
the end of the rainy season (Figure 2-9). This population growth
is accounted for by the increase in the number of juveniles trapped
(Figure 2-10). The hypothesis that increased trapping success is
due to juvenile recruitment is further supported by the observation


39
Table 2-8. Biometric data for adult male and female Marmosa incana.
Weight is given in gms, and other body measurements in mm. P refers to
p-value associated with analysis of variance for sexual dimorphism
(n.s.=p>0.05;*=p<0.05; **=p<0.01; ***=p<0.001).
MALE
FEMALE
Mean
St.Dev.
N
Mean
St.Dev.
N
I
Weight
82.3
23.6
62
68.4
23.1
23
**
Body length
150.5
18.0
62
141.0
15.5
23
***
Tail length
203.9
18.2
62
191.2
18.2
23
Hind Foot
23.4
2.0
61
21.5
3.9
23
t*
Ear length
28.1
2.4
61
26.5
3.0
23
***


40
Jun Jul AugSepOctNovDec JanFebMar AprMay Jun Jul AugSepOct
1 1 Number of Captures Rainy Season Limits
Figure 2-9. Number of captures of Mj. incana according to monthly
trapping period. Straight lines enclose boundaries of rainy season
(September to February).


41
¡ I Number of Juveniles
s- Mean Rainfall (cm)
Figure 2-10. Number of juveniles of M^. Incana according to monthly
trapping period. Line represents mean dally rainfall (mm).


42
KM] Breeding Males dH Breeding Females 13- Mean Rainfall (cm)
Figure 2-11. Number of breeding males and females of incana
according to monthly trapping period. Line represents mean daily
rainfall (mm).


43
Differential Trapping Success (in %)
Terrestrial Traps 1 I Arboreal Traps
Figure 2-12. Differential trapping success (1 n percentages) of M^.
incana in arboreal and terrestrial traps.


44
that the occurrence of breeding males and especially breeding
females is tightly tied to mid to late rainy season (Figure 2-11).
Marmosa incana can be characterized as a scansorial species,
as its use of arboreal and terrestrial traps was approximately
evenly split (Figure 2-12). The same result was obtained using
behavior upon release as measure of differential substrate use.
Approximately 53 % of individuals released climbed trees or vines,
while 47 % remained on the ground. There were no statistical
differences in substrate use between males and females
(chi- square= 3.19; p>0.05).
Marmosa incana appears highly insectivorous. Three stomachs
analyzed in this study contained only insects, mostly belonging to
the orders Coleptera and Orthoptera. Nowak and Paradiso (1983)
reported that most members of the genus Marmosa are insect and
fruit eaters, although vertebrates are also occasionally consumed.
Marmosa microtarsus. During the last month of the survey,
October of 1986, an adult male of this species was caught in an
arboreal trap in the secondary forest of the Rio Doce Park. The
species was previously described as being quite abundant in both
secondary and primary forests of the Atlantic forest region (Davis,
1947). Marmosa microtarsus is similar in morphology to Marmosa
agilis, and it is usually difficult to distinguish them.
Morphometric data from this individual are as follows: weight=31


45
grams; body length=106 millimeters; tail length=148 millimeters;
ear length=14 millimeters; hind foot=17 millimeters.
Metachi rus nudicaudatus. This relatively large-bodied
terrestrial didelphid was the third most common marsupial species
trapped in this study (Table 2-2). The brown four-eyed opossum was
present in all six forest plots surveyed. A total of 60 males and
45 females were caught, respectively, 88 and 68 times. The sex
ratio for first captures was equal to that of recaptures (1.3:1.0).
Adult males were, on average, larger than females, with most
biometric parameters measured proving sexually dimorphic
(Table 2-9). Males were, on average, 1/4 heavier than adult
females.
Even though the species was relatively common throughout the
year, a trapping success peak was observed following the rainy
season (Figure 2-13). This peak probably coincides with the onset
of breeding in mid- rainy season and the beginning of the dry
months. Both lactating females and males with functional abdominal
glands were frequently caught at this time (Figure 2-14).
Metachi rus nudicaudatus may also be able to produce a second litter
in the same year. One female had a litter in March and the second
in October. The number of pouch young ranged from 5 to 9, with an
average of 7.2 young (Table 2-10). For the two females in which


46
Table 2-9. Biometric data for adult male and female Metachi rus
nudicaudatus. Weight is given in gms, and other body measurements in
mm. P refers to p-value associated with analysis of variance for
sexual dimorphism (n.s.=p>0.05; *=p<0.05; **=p<0.01; ***=p<0.001).
MALE
FEMALE
Mean
St.Dev.
N
Mean
St.Dev.
N
P
Weight
352.7
94.0
51
280.8
57.1
33
***
Body length
252.0
28.7
51
232.1
25.4
32
**
Tail length
324.1
30.5
51
315.9
34.0
31
n.s.
Hind Foot
44.9
3.1
51
42.3
3.3
32
*
Ear length
37.4
3.9
50
36.5
2.9
32
n.s.


47
20
15
10
Jun Jul AugSepOctNovDecJanFebMar AprMayJun Jul AugSepOct
I l Number of Captures H1 Rainy Season Limits
Figure 2-13. Number of captures of nudicaudatus according to
monthly trapping period. Straight lines enclose boundaries of rainy
season (September to February).


48
[SMI Breeding Males dU Breeding Females -s-Mean Ramtaii (cm)
Figure 2-14. Number of breeding males and females of M¡_ nudicaudatus
according to trapping period. Line represents mean daily rainfall (mm).


49
Table 2-10. Litter sizes and sex ratios of Metachi rus nudicaudatus
pouch young.
ID Number
Number
Female
of
Young
Number of
Male Young
Total
Young
Sex Ratio
M: F
271
-
-
9
-
322
-
-
5
-
338
-
-
8
-
346
3
2
5
0.7:1.0
338*
6
3
9
0.5:1.0
Means
7.2
0.6:1.0
* Second consecutive litter.


50
young were old enough to be sexed, there was a biased sex ratio towards
females.
Nowak and Paradiso (1983) regard brown four-eyed opossums as
being arboreal, but the species was only once in 156 captures caught in
an arboreal trap. Furthermore, only once was an
individual observed to use aerial substrate upon being released.
In fact, the large and non-graspable hind feet and clumsy behavior
on above ground support do suggest a complete terrestrial life for
the species. Using a spool-line device, Miles et al. (1981) also
found Metachi rus nudicaudatus to be completely terrestrial.
Terborgh et al. (1984) also regard gray four-eyed opossums as a
species confined to the ground.
Male and female brown four-eyed opossums did not differ in
persistence times in traplines, with both sex classes averaging 1.7
months. Two males and two females were also recorded in traplines
over a nine month period (Figure 2-15). Distances travelled
between successive trapping were among the lowest for marsupials,
averaging 36.7 meters (maximum=120 meters; N=6) for males and 40
meters (maximum=80 meters; N=7) for females.
Monodelphis americana. Short-tailed opossums have a fairly
wide distribution in Brazil (Streilein, 1982). Only one female was
caught in an auxiliary line established in the primary forest at
Fazenda Montes Claros, for the purpose of collecting voucher


51
Frequency
Males -1 Females
Figure 2-15. Frequency of individuals of nudicaudatus persisting
within traplines.


52
specimens. The capture site did not differ physiognomically from
the regular traplines, and therefore the species might also occur
consistently at this site. However, it is felt that trapping
methods were not proper to adequately represent the species. Its
small body size and foraging habits on the forest litter may have
accounted for its low representation in the sample (Davis, 1947).
The biometric data on this individual are as follows: weight=19
grams; body length=92 millimeters; tail length=46 millimeters;
hindfoot=16 millimeters; ear length=13 millimeters. Comparisons
with data provided by Nowak and Paradiso (1983) indicate that this
individual was probably a juvenile.
Philander opossum. Gray four-eyed opossums were trapped in
all forest plots, except at the Rio Doce Park. Fourteen
individuals were caught during the course of this study. The
occurrence of this large didelphld marsupial is apparently tied to
the presence of standing or running water (Davis, 1947; Handley,
1976; Nowak and Paradiso, 1983; Alho et al., 1986). As only a few
transects occurred close to streams, this may explain the low
trapping success for this species. As with other species, trapping
success was much higher during the dry season (Figure 2-16).
While only three individual females were recorded, these had
a much higher recapture rate; 11 males were caught 17 times, while
3 females were captured in 12 different occasions. The longest


53
CU] Number of Captures HH Rainy Season Limits
Figure 2-16. Number of captures of P^. opossum according to monthly
trapping period. Straight line encloses boundaries of rainy season
(September to February).


54
persistence times on the traplines were 4 and 5 months, achieved by
two adult females.
All females caught were lactating, and two still had pouch
young. Nowak and Paradiso (1983), based on several studies,
concluded that P^_ opossum breeds aseasonally. However, the small
sample size of the present study does not allow any conclusions as
to seasonality of reproduction. One female had pouch young in
February, while the remaining were caught lactating in August and
September. Each had 5 young attached to the nipples. The figure
given by Davis (1947) in the Atlantic forest was an average number
of pouch young of 4.5, with a maximum of seven, while litter sizes
in Nicaragua were found to be slightly larger (Phillips and Jones,
1965). For one litter which sex could be determined, there were
four female and one male young.
Even though the small sample size precluded statistical
analysis of sexual dimorphism, adult males were on average over
30 % heavier than females (Table 2-11). As noticed by Nowak and
Paradiso (1983), in this study the species also proved to be
primarily terrestrial, with only 17 % of captures in arboreal
traps, and 7 % of individuals climbing trees after being released.
Based on field observations, however, it is felt that gray
four-eyed opossums are able, if needed, to efficiently make use of
arboreal substrate. The same was suggested by Miles et al. (1981)
and Crespo (1982).


55
Table 2-11. Biometric data for seven males and three females of
gray four-eyed opossum, Philander opossum. Weight is given in gms,
and other body measurements in mm.
MALE
FEMALE
Mean
St.Dev.
Mean
St.Dev
Weight
394.9
98.7
295.0
39.7
Body length
282.0
51.3
285.0
48.2
Tail length
325.5
21.6
295.0
18.0
Hind Foot
45.3
2.6
40.3
4.0
Ear length
32.7
3.0
29.3
3.1


56
Table 2-12. Biometric data for adult Akodon cursor. Weight is
given in gms, and other body measurements in mm. P refers to p-
value associated with analysis of variance for sexual dimorphism
(n.s.=p>0.05; *=p<0.05; **=p<0.01; ***=p<0.001).
MALE FEMALE
Mean
St.Dev.
N
Mean
St.Dev.
N
P
Weight
48.1
8.1
14
45.5
6.8
8
n. s
Body length
107.8
10.1
13
103.0
14.3
8
n. s.
Tail length
98.8
9.9
12
94.9
10.4
8
n.s.
Hind Foot
26.9
1.3
13
25.9
1.3
8
n.s.
Ear length
18.1
1.6
14
18.8
0.9
8
n.s.


57
Abrawayomys ruschi. This rare monotypic murid rodent, endemic to
the Atlantic forest of eastern Brazil, is only known through its type
specimen, collected in the state of Espirito Santo (Nowak and Paradiso,
1983). A single adult male, with descended testes, was collected at
the secondary forest of the Rio Doce State Park in January of 1986, for
which measurements are as follows: weight=63 grams; body=128
millimeters; tail length=146 millimeters; hind foot=31 millimeters; ear
length=20 millimeters.
Akodon cursor. The genus Akodon comprises over 40 species, and
A. cursor is among the largest. Sexual dimorphism is lacking in A^_
cursor (Table 2-12), although males weighted more than females in
another study (Nitikman and Mares, 1987). This species occurred
frequently in the Rio Doce Park secondary forest, but was also
occasionally caught at other sites, especially in some auxiliary lines
which were located in humid grasslands. Within the traplines, a total
of 29 individuals were caught 53 times (Table 2-2), 27 of which were
trapped at the Rio Doce Park. Sex ratios for first captures and all
captures were, respectively, 2.3:1.0 and 3.4:1.0.
Akodon cursor was previously described as being completely
terrestrial (Crespo, 1982; Alho et a!., 1986; Nitikman and Mares,
1987). However, the species demonstrated scansorial ability in this
study, with approximately one-third of trapping success being obtained
at arboreal traps.


58
A distinct peak in population density was found between May and
July. Very few individuals were recorded during the rainy season
(Figure 2-17). This was attributed to recruitment of young into the
population just at the end of the wet and in the dry season. This
conclusion is supported by the observation that the number of males
with descended testes closely follows that of trapping success, and
coincides with mid dry season (Figure 2-18). Gestation and subsequent
weaning are close to five weeks (Nowak and Paradiso, 1983), and the
influence of reproduction activity on population density was readily
noticeable in terms of increased trapping success.
Akodon cursor appears to be primarily insectivorous. Individuals
trapped in both grasslands and forests turned out high amounts of
insects in their stomachs, which possibly indicate that the species
makes use of insects in their diets in all habitats. The species also
makes use of seeds, fruits, and vegetative parts, especially those of
the Graminae (Table 2-13).
Akodon cursor turnover rates appear very high, with 78 % of
individuals only being recorded during one trapping session. Maximum
persistence was achieved by two individuals, but for only three and
four months. The two individuals for which data on travel distances
were available, moved 20 and 40 meters between successive captures.


59
16
8
6
4
Jun Jul AugSepOctNovDecJanFebMar AprMayJun Jul AugSepOct
GH3 Number of Captures Rainy Season Limits
Figure 2-17. Number of captures of A_¡_ cursor according to monthly
trapping period. Straight line encloses boundaries of rainy season
(September to February).


60
10
8
6
4
2
0
Jun Jul AugSepOct NovDec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul AugSepOct
Breeding Males ~B~ Mean Rainfall (cm)
Figure 2-18. Number of males of cursor with descended testes,
according to trapping period. Line represents mean daily rainfall (mm).


61
Table 2-13. Stomach contents of four Akodon cursor.
ID Number
PERCENTAGE OF
Insects
Leafy Material
Seeds
Fruits
CEM1/10*
33
33
0
33
47P**
100
0
0
0
101P*
100***
0
0
0
106P*
96***
0
4
0
* Forest traplines.
** Grasslands.
*** Coleptera and ants.


62
Echvmvs sp. Members of this genus are entirely arboreal
(Hershkovitz, 1969). This may explain the low success in recording
this species in the forests sampled. It is possible that it
preferentially occupies higher canopy strata. Davis (1947) never
trapped Echvmvs below 5 meters, while Miles et al. (1981) found nests
of Echymys chrysurus in tree cavities located at the canopy level.
Only one adult male was caught on the primary forest of Fazenda
Montes Claros in July of 1986, in an arboreal trap. The voucher
specimen could not yet be identified beyond genus, but may possibly
either be Echymys brasiliensis (sensu Moojen, 1952) or a species which
has not been described (L. Emmons, pers. comm., 1988). This specimen
had the following measurements: weight=225 grams; body length=215
millimeters; tail length=205 millimeters; hind foot=38 millimeters; ear
length=14 millimeters.
Nectomys squamipes. This semi-aquatic rat was occasionally
trapped in the vicinities of small streams or flooded areas within
forests. Alho et al. (1986) obtained 93 % of all the captures of
Nectomys squamipes in the Cerrado region on flooded areas. A few
individuals in the present study were found over 500 meters from any
source of water, suggesting that the species may occasionally exploit
non-aquatic habitats. The three stomachs analyzed contained only
vegetative material, two exclusively fruit pulp.


63
Nectomvs squamipes is a fairly large-bodied rodent, with males
attaining over 250 grams (Table 2-14). A total of eight males and one
female were recorded in tree plots, one at each of the study sites.
Another individual escaped before sex could be determined. All but one
individual was caught during the mid-dry season, i.e., between May and
August.
Although adapted for sem1-aquat1c life, squamipes were trapped
38 % of the times in arboreal traps. Nests which were assumed to
belong to N_^ squamipes were found one meter above ground. Individuals
were also captured at stations away from water sources. Two males
persisted in the areas for three and four months, respectively.
Orvzomys capito. A widespread habitat generalist, this rodent is
extensively distributed in South America (Handley, 1976). It is
possibly mostly terrestrial, and in the Cerrado region was found more
commonly at dense forests (Alho et al., 1986; Nitikman and Mares,
1987). However, it was a rare species in the forests sampled in this
study and was represented by only one male and one female at the Rio
Doce Park, both caught in September of 1986. All captures were on
ground traps. The measurements of these individuals are, respectively:
weight=60 and 63 grams; bodylength=122 and 132 millimeters; tail
length=115 and 129 millimeters; hind foot= 32 and 34 millimeters; ear
length=22 and 21 millimeters.


64
Table 2-14. Biometric data for five males and one female Nectomvs
squamipes. Weight is given in gms, and other body measurements in mm.
MALE FEMALE
Mean
St.Dev.
N
Mean
St.Dev. N
Weight
197.0
67.0
5
165
1
Body length
188.4
19.9
5
190
1
Tail length
207.8
24.9
5
210
1
Hind Foot
50.0
2.8
5
50
1
Ear length
22.0
2.2
5
22
1


65
Oryzomvs ni gripes. This small cricetid rodent commonly occurred
at auxiliary traplines located in grasslands and it has wide
distribution among Cerrado habitats (Alho et al., 1986; Nitikman and
Mares, 1987). It was, however, relatively uncommon in forests. Only 5
individuals, two males and three females, were caught in forest
traplines. All trappings were done on mid- to late rainy season, i.e.,
between January and April. Two of these captures were on arboreal
traps, although it is felt that the species is certainly more
terrestrial and/or scansorial, as it was also observed by Crespo
(1982). Alho and Pereira (1985) in Cerrado gallery forests and
Veiga-Borgeaud (1982) in the Atlantic forest region determined that
Oryzomys nigripes (-eliurus) makes extensive use of low shrubs, with
nests located about 1 meter from ground.
Stomach contents revealed high frequency of insects, complemented
by fruit, seeds and leafy material (Table 2-15). Barlow (1969, in
Dalby, 1975), and Crespo (1982) also found insects as part of
0.nigripes diet, even though in lower proportions. Biometric data are
presented in Table 2-16.
Reproduction occurs throughout the year, albeit it may increase
in frequency at some periods. Two females, one caught in February and
the other in August, both had 4 fetuses, coinciding with two major
reproductive peaks observed by Veiga-Borgeaud (1982). A third female,
trapped in April, had 5 implanted fetuses.


66
Table 2-15. Stomach contents of Oryzomys nigripes.
PERCENTAGE OF
ID Number Insects Fruit Leafy Material Seeds
105P
100
0
0
0
56P
20
0
0
80
CEM3
6
90
4
0
CEM2
30
12
58
0


67
Table 2-16. Biometric data for two males and three females of Oryzomys
nigripes. Weight is given in gms, and other body measurements in mm.
MALE
FEMALE
Mean
St.Dev.
N
Mean
St.Dev.
N
Weight
19.5
0.7
2
18.3
2.9
3
Body length
87.5
0.7
2
83.0
5.3
3
Tail length
126.0
4.2
2
116.8
6.1
3
Hind Foot
23.5
0.7
2
24.0
1.0
3
Ear length
16.0
0.0
2
17.3
0.6
3


68
Orvzomvs subflavus. Only one female of this otherwise fairly
common Cerrado species (Melo, 1977; Alho and Pereira, 1985; Alho et
al., 1986) was caught in an arboreal trap in the forest traplines. The
measurements of this individual are as follows: weight=92 grams; body
length=165 millimeters; tail length=173 millimeters; hind foot=34
millimeters; ear length=25 millimeters.
Oryzomys trinitatis (=concolor). This cricetid was the most
frequent rodent found in the forests sampled, being present at all
sites. It is widely distributed, from Costa Rica to Paraguay (Nowak
and Paradiso, 1983), and found mostly in forested habitats (Alho and
Pereira, 1985; Nitikman and Mares, 1987). A total of 84 individuals
were captured 99 times (Table 2-2). Due to coat color variation, most
individuals were prepared as skins. Therefore, recapture figures
underestimate true recapture rates. Sex ratios at first captures were
1.35:1.00. In contrast to other small mammal species observed in this
study, females were slightly heavier and longer than males. Other
biometric parameters were found not to be significantly dimorphic
(Table 2-17).
The species appears to be mostly arboreal. Approximately
74 % of males and 62 % of females were captured in arboreal traps
(Figure 2-19). This figure is very close to that observed by Nitikman
and Mares (1987) in a gallery forest of Central Brazil.


69
Table 2-17. Biometric data for adult male and female Orvzomvs
trinitatis. Weight is given in gms, and other body measurements in mm.
P refers to p-value associated with analysis of variance for sexual
dimorphism (n.s.=p>0.05; *=p<0.05; **=p<0.01; ***=p<0.001).
HALE
FEMALE
Mean
St.Dev.
N
Mean
St.Dev.
N
P
Weight
63.2
8.2
35
70.0
10.9
28
**
Body length
129.1
8.8
35
136.4
8.1
28
***
Tail length
152.3
10.2
35
159.4
18.2
27
n. s.
Hind Foot
30.4
4.1
35
29.1
2.0
28
n. s.
Ear length
18.6
3.0
35
19.0
1.8
28
n. s.


70
Differential Trapping Success (in %)
Terrestrial Traps 1 I Arboreal Traps
Figure 2-19. Differential
trinitatls in arboreal and
trapping success of male and female 0.
terrestrial traps.


71
Males and females did not differ in degree of arboreality
(chi-square=2.40; df=1; p>0.05). Since most individuals were
prepared as voucher specimens, sample size was too small to
evaluate the differential use of substrate by analyzing behavior
upon release. However, the few individuals that were released
demonstrated climbing ability. Even though relatively uncommon in
the forests of Manu National Park in Peru, Oryzomys trinitatis
(=concolor) was listed by Terborgh et al. (1984) as being able to
use most all forest strata, from the understory to canopy.
Although there were variations in trapping success at a
monthly basis, there does not seem to exist any season
characterized by high population, in contrast to most other species
(Figure 2-20). This might be a consequence of the absence of
seasonal breeding. Reproduction seems to take place throughout the
year, as breeding males and females were captured in 14 out of 17
months of study (Figure 2-21).
The two stomachs available for analysis indicated a high
degree of insectivory. The stomach contents of an individual were
100 % insects, while a second had 48 % unidentified insects and
coleptera larvae, and 52 % fruit pulp.
Oxymvcterus sp.. This genus includes semi-fossorial
cricetids. The genus is represented in these forests by only one
juvenile male and one adult female of an yet undetermined species


72
16
14
Jun Jul AugSepOctNovDec JanFebMar AprMay Jun Jul AugSepOct
Number of Captures HH Rainy Season Limits
Figure 2-20. Number of captures of CL trinitatis according to monthly
trapping period. Straight line encloses boundaries of rainy season
(September to February).


73
GM3 Breeding Males dH Breeding Females -S-Mean Rainfall (cm)
Figure 2-21. Number of breeding male and female 0,. trinitatis
according to monthly trapping period. Line represents mean daily
rainfall (mm).


74
(Table 2-2). Members of this genus are mostly insectivorous
(Borchert and Hansen, 1983; Redford, 1984); two stomachs analyzed
in the present study yielded 100 % insects, especially Coleptera
larvae and ants. Species of the genus Oxymycterus are more
commonly found in grasslands and inundated savannas (Borchert and
Hansen, 1983; Fonseca and Redford, 1984; Redford, 1984), a habit
which can account for the rarity of the species in the forests of
this study. Biometric data for the male and female are,
respectively: weight=57 and 85 grams; body length=124 and 245
millimeters; tail length= 111 and 112 millimeters; hind foot=27 and
30 millimeters.
Proechimvs setosus. Spiny rats were the third most abundant
small mammal in this study (Table 2-2). Only opossums surpassed
Proechimvs setosus in number of recaptures. Even though species of
the genus Proechimys were also found to be quite common in other
studies in the Atlantic forest (Davis, 1947; Carvalho, 1965;
Avila-Pires and Gouvea, 1977; Botelho and Linardi, 1980; Miles et
al., 1981; Fonseca et al., 1987), in the Cerrado (Fonseca and
Redford, 1984; Alho et al., 1986) and in the Amazon region (Bishop,
1974; Emmons, 1982; 1984; Terborgh et al., 1984; Malcolm, 1987),
spiny rats were surprisingly absent from the Rio Doce Park
traplines. This can possibly be attributed to higher predation
rate by mammalian carnivores, owls and other predators at the Rio


75
Doce Park (see Chapter 4). The park has a larger and richer
carnivore fauna which exert a larger impact upon F\ setosus
populations than the comparatively depauperated predator community
of the smaller forest plots.
Sex ratios of first captures deviated little from a 1:1 sex
ratio, with 56 male and 49 female individuals being trapped. Five
individuals escaped before their sex could be determined. Females
were recaptured at a slightly higher rate than males, yielding a
sex ratio for all captures of 0.83:1.00.
Although spiny rats were caught in all 17 months of the
study, a distinct mid to late dry season peak in trapping success
was notable (Figure 2-22). This may result from the increase in
the recruitment rate of juveniles into the population at this time
(Figure 2-23). However, reproduction does not seem to be strictly
seasonal, as it was also observed by Bishop (1974) in Mato Grosso,
Brazil. Pregnant and lactating females were present 1n all
trapping sessions, although an increase in the frequency of
breeding individuals could be observed both in mid-rainy season and
in mid-dry season (Figure 2-24). A few females had two litters in
the same year, coinciding with the above mentioned breeding peaks.
There is no sexual dimorphism in this species of spiny rat,
as none of the morphological characters measured significantly
differ between sexes (Table 2-18). Proechimys setosus is entirely


76
Table 2-18. Biometric data for adult male and female Proechimys
setosus. Weight is given in gms, and other body measurements in mm.
N=number of individuals, St. Dev.=Standard Deviation. P refers to p-
value associated with analysis of variance for sexual dimorphism
(n.s.=p>0.05;*=p<0.05; **=p<0.01; ***=p<0.001).
MALE
FEMALE
Mean
St.Dev.
N
Mean
St.Dev.
N
P
Weight
270.7
36.2
43
259.6
43.4
41
n. s.
Body length
200.2
14.2
42
196.5
18.9
40
n.s.
Tail length
212.3
13.9
39
208.3
15.4
39
n. s.
Hind Foot
51.2
2.1
43
50.7
4.6
40
n.s.
Ear length
29.2
2.1
43
30.6
2.8
40
n.s.


77
Table 2-19.
Analysis of seven
stomachs of Proechimvs
setosus.
PERCENTAGE OF
ID Number
Fruit
Insects
Seeds
39P
81
0
19
93P
64
36
0
95P
100
0
0
90P
0
100*
0
91P
100
0
0
92P
100
0
0
79P
47
0
53
* Termites and Coleptera larvae.


78
] Number of Captures HH Rainy Season Limits
Figure 2-22. Number of captures of P_¡_ setosus according to monthly
trapping period. Straigh line enclose boundaries of rainy season
(September to February).


79
Number of Juveniles ~s- Mean Rainfall (cm)
Figure 2-23. Number of setosus juveniles according to monthly
trapping period. Line represents mean daily rainfall (mm).


80
bSSS! Breeding Males 1 I Rmnning Females -B-Mean Rainfall (cm)
Figure 2-24. Number of breeding male and female F\_ setosus according
to monthly trapping period. Line represents mean daily rainfall (mm).


81
Frequency
t I
Males ~1 Females
Figure 2-25. Frequency of individuals of F\ setosus persisting within
traplines.


82
terrestrial, lacking any scansorial ability. All 239 spiny rat
captures were conducted in terrestrial traps. Analysis of stomach
contents indicates that spiny rats are primarily frugivorous, but
also make opportune use of insects and seeds (Table 2-19). Emmons
(1982) found Proechimvs to be highly frugivorous, with insects
being frequent in stomach samples.
Although, in average, females persisted in traplines more
than males (respectively, 2.7 and 2.0 months), there were no
significant differences between sexes (chi-square=0.58, df=1,
p>0.05). The records for persistence times were obtained by two
females who stayed, respectively, 10 and 12 months within traplines
(Figure 2-25). Males and females also did not differ in mean
travelled distances between successive captures with, respectively,
98.7 (maximum=220 meters) and 87.5 meters (maximum=240 meters).
Rhypidomvs mastacalis. This arboreal rat (Hershkovitz, 1969)
was only caught once in this study, in the month of September. It
is found mostly in moist, forested habitats (Davis, 1947; Dietz,
1983; Fonseca and Redford, 1984; Alho et al., 1986), even though it
can also invade households (Nowak and Paradiso, 1983; J. Stallings,
pers. comm., 1988). The adult male measurements are as follows:
weight=72 grams; body length=137 millimeters; tail length=161
millimeters; hind foot=27 millimeters; ear length=18 millimeters.


83
Discussion
Seasonality and Resource Use
One of the most striking phenomena common to several small
mammals of the western slopes of the Atlantic forest is the
occurrence of seasonal reproduction. With the exception of the two
most abundant rodents (Orvzomys trinitatis and Proechimys setosus),
all four species with sufficient sample size to allow analysis
proved to concentrate breeding in the late dry season and into the
early to mid-wet season. These were all marsupials. The evidence
for these patterns derives from both the increase in trapping
success starting in late wet season, represented mostly by the
addition of juveniles, as well as the observation of adults in
breeding condition just previous to that period. Furthermore, the
number of first-time captures of all small mammals is significantly
and negatively correlated with average monthly precipitation
(r=0.55; p<0.02), which indicates that recently weaned juveniles
are recruited into the population at the end of the rains. Akodon
cursor is also a seasonal breeder, but unlike marsupials it
concentrated its reproduction in the dry season.
Davis (1946) and Laemmert et al. (1946) observed a pattern of
cyclic reproduction among several Brazilian Atlantic forest small
mammal species. Breeding was concentrated in the late dry winter


84
and in the wet summer months, albeit less marked than in the
present study. The possible reason for this may be that both these
studies were in the eastern side of the Brazilian coastal
mountains, where the dry season is shorter and less severe (Hueck,
1972). These two studies have also revealed the lack of
seasonality for some rodent species, especially ones from the genus
Proechimys, which probably breed year-round throughout its range.
A large number of African rodents seem also to closely tie
the onset of reproductive activities to just before the end of the
wet season (Delany, 1986). Cerrado species appear to be equally
divided between seasonal and year-round breeders (Dietz, 1983;
Alho, 1982; Alho and Pereira, 1985). In Panama, over 50 % of
mammals are seasonal breeders (Fleming, 1973), although
reproduction is concentrated in the three months of the dry season,
which results in most young being weaned at the beginning of the
rains.
Other things equal, reproductive output and juvenile survival
of small mammals would be maximized if reproduction occurs when the
environment is best in terms of resource availability (Fleming,
1975b). In fluctuating environments the energetic costs of
pregnancy and lactation, coupled with the needs of adequate
resources for newly weaned young, should pose constraints on the
timing of reproduction. Lee and Cockburn (1985) state that all
tropical didelphids are seasonal breeders and the timing of


85
reproduction is linked with availability of food. Marsupial food
resources, in turn, are tied to the fluctuation in rainfall regimes
of seasonal environments (Charles-Dominique, 1983). Information on
small mammal diets in this study is not sufficient to provide an
accurate and longitudinal picture of diet composition. However, it
is important to notice that all but the semi-aquatic Nectomys
squamipes were observed to consume insects in variable quantities.
All didelphid marsupials appear to be predominantly insectivorous
(Nowak and Paradiso, 1983), and even large-bodied species such as
Didelphis marsupial is and Philander opossum depend heavily on
insect prey (Charles-Dominque, 1983). Metachi rus nudicaudatus.
Marmosa spp., and Caluromys philander have also been listed as
being consumers of ants and termites (Redford, 1987), although the
latter species may rely more heavily on fruits (Atramentowicz,
1982).
Results of studies on insect population fluctuations in the
neotropics vary (see Elton, 1975; Bigger, 1976; Janzen and
Schoener, 1968; Janzen, 1973; Wolda, 1978), but most authors agree
that samples obtained in wet season months are larger than
comparable ones collected during the dry months (Davis, 1946;
Wolda, 1978; Smythe, 1982; Charles-Dominique, 1983). Therefore,
the trends of this study certainly support the notion that small
mammal reproduction, especially that of marsupials, is influenced
by availability of insect prey. However, until the variation in


86
the cycles of prey populations across the year is described,
explaining timing of reproduction of small mammals as a consequence
of abundance of insect prey in the late wet to early rainy season
will remain speculative.
Fruits and seeds were the other frequent items present in the
stomachs of small mammals in this study, although it is felt that
rodents may depend more heavily on these resources than the more
insectivorous marsupials. If the number of trees with fruits can
serve as a measure of food resource availability for small mammals,
the timing of reproduction of most small mammal species seems to
track that of resources. In the Brazilian Atlantic forest
asynchroniously fruiting trees may be found at every month of the
year (Davis, 1946). Nonetheless, fruit production of several plant
species of seasonal neotropical environments has been shown to be
influenced by precipitation, usually peaking just prior to the
start of the rainy season (Foster, 1982; Smythe et al., 1982;
Charles-Dominique, 1983). A second peak in fruit productivity can
also be present at the end of the rainy season (Davis, 1946). A
preliminary study conducted in the Rio Doce Park (CETEC, 1981) also
indicated that there are tree species flowering and fruiting
throughout the year, and also that there is a slight peak in the
number of fruiting species in September and October, i.e., in the
early rainy season.


87
I expected that marsupials, which use invertebrates to a
larger extent than rodents, should display a higher degree of
seasonality due the more fluctuating nature of their food
resources. This was observed in the present study. Rodents, on
the other hand, can probably rely on resources which are more
seasonably stable in the Atlantic forest, such as fruits, seeds and
leaf tissue, and thus can reproduce throughout the year. The two
most common rodents, Proechimys setosus and Oryzomys trinitatis, do
not show seasonality in their reproductive patterns. Since they
have also shown to be able to use and at some periods heavily rely
on insects, the consequent larger resource spectrum should place
lower limits on the reproduction of rodent species.
While some small mammals may exploit resources on the forest
floor, most of the tropical forest productivity is located above
ground (Eisenberg and Thorington, 1973). Therefore, even for
primarily terrestrial species, some level of scansorial ability
should prove advantageous. There was a high degree of overlap in
substrate use among small mammal species in this study. Twelve
species are shown to use both aerial and ground substrate
regularly, even though their relative degrees of arboreality
varied. Among marsupials, only Metachlrus nudicaudatus was
confined to the ground level of the forest. Only four of eleven
rodent species can be safely classified as terrestrial, while the
remaining are at least marginally arboreal. This is consistent


88
with descriptions of other neotropical small mammal fauna, where
the majority of species show some level of climbing ability (see
August, 1984; Fonseca et al., 1987; Nitikman and Mares, 1987).
It should be stressed that these findings do not imply that
arboreality is the dominant mode of life among Atlantic forest
small mammals. Of the species caught in the present study, only
Caluromys philander. Marmosa cinrea. Marmosa agilis. Oryzomys
trinitatis, Rhipidomvs mastacalis and Echymys sp. can be regarded
as predominantly arboreal. It does, however, indicate the
widespread ability of a greater fraction of the community in
exploring a tri-dimensional environment. This may be especially
important during certain periods of the year. Charles-Dominique
(1983) provided data indicating that the insect faunas of the
canopy and of the undergrowth can fluctuate asynchroniously with
each other. Therefore, if a particular food resource is undergoing
a period of seasonal shortage, those species with versatile habits
would be at an advantage. It has been demonstrated before that in
the highly seasonal savanna region of central Brazil gallery
forests play an important role in maintaining overall mammalian
species diversity (Fonseca and Redford, 1984), and become crucial
during periods of stress. Part of the reason for this may be
linked to the higher productivity of the tri-dimensional gallery
forest environment, when compared, during periods of moisture
deficit, to that of the cerrado savannas.


89
Life History Patterns
While the occurrence of pouch litters with skewed sex ratios
in neotropical marsupial species has not often been reported, it
was interesting to find Didelphis marsupial is with litters having a
predominance of males. Skewed sex ratios have only been achieved
experimentally under a regime of diet supplementation, a procedure
which does not always produce the predicted male bias outcome
(Austad and Sunquist, 1986). Therefore, it is important that
future investigations address this question. The female-biased sex
ratio obtained for Metachi rus nudicaudatus pouch young is not based
on a large enough sample size and therefore remains inconclusive.
Three out of four marsupial species, for which sample size
was large enough to allow statistical inference, proved sexually
dimorphic. Male Didelphis marsupial is has also been found to be
larger than females elsewhere in South America (OConnell, 1979).
Other Marmosa species also have larger and heavier males (Nowak and
Paradiso, 1983), the same being true for Philander opossum. No
references have been found to indicate size differences for
Metachi rus nudicaudatus. except for the present study. While
larger males have been usually associated with polygynous species
in which males strongly compete for females (Ralls, 1976), there
was no evidence of territorial defense by any of the marsupials
studied here. However, this does not necessarily preclude males


90
from actively competing for females at overlapping ranges. Fierce
fighting for estrous females has been observed elsewhere in
Didelphis marsupial is (Austad and Sunquist, 1986). Since marsupial
breeding in this study was usually confined to a certain season,
the potential for male-male competition for estrous females is
likely.
Rodents, on the other hand, are seldom dimorphic (see
Eisenberg, 1981), especially the smaller species. In only one
species, Oryzomys trinitatis, could a size difference be found in
this study. In this instance, however, females proved in average
to be larger than males. This could be attributed to extra
energetic demand placed on pregnant and lactating females, a cost
non-existent for males who do not provide parental care (see Ralls,
1976). Moreover, since rodent young do not undergo, unlike
marsupials, a teat attachment phase, female placental mammals may
increase litter size above that of the teats. The increase in
rodent litter sizes may be achieved if the female is larger and
better nourished. Marsupial litter sizes, on the other hand, due
to the obligatory teat attachment phase, are constrained by the
number of teats. Furthermore, marsupials can spontaneously
terminate lactation, or more often in smaller species reduce litter
size if energetically stressed (Lee and Cockburn, 1985). Young are
also born after a very short gestation period, making the
reproductive investment minimal. For these reasons no added


91
security would be achieved by genetically fixed propensity for
larger marsupial females.
Population Turnover
Although the area sampled by traplines was not enough to
represent the home range of several species, especially the larger
ones, the reduced persistence time of the average small mammal
individual was nonetheless striking. Average persistence times
ranged from 1.2 months for male Marmosa incana to a maximum of 3.8
months for Marmosa cinerea females, with most species remaining in
traplines within the range of 1.7 to 2.7 months. While it is
reasonable to assume that some of the disappearances can be
attributed to home range shifts (see Nitikman and Mares, 1987)
and/or juvenile migration and dispersal (Lidicker, 1975), predation
might also play an important role in increasing turnover rates
among tropical small mammals. Monthly turnover rate for the small
cricetid rodent Akodon cursor approached 80 % in this study.
Several authors have suggested that predators might cause
variations in local abundances (August, 1983), and sometimes they
do take a large percentage of small mammal standing biomass
(Hershkovitz, 1969; Pearson, 1985; Emmons, 1987; Sunquist et al.,
1987). Predation in traps was observed in this study on several
occasions and it is felt that it may play a major role in the
structure of these communities (Chapter 4). A large number of


92
mammalian predators, as well as owls, have been observed predating
on several of the marsupials and rodents trapped in the present
research, and I suspect that predators are responsible for a large
fraction of the observed turnover rates on these small mammal
communities.


Full Text
xml version 1.0 encoding UTF-8
REPORT xmlns http:www.fcla.edudlsmddaitss xmlns:xsi http:www.w3.org2001XMLSchema-instance xsi:schemaLocation http:www.fcla.edudlsmddaitssdaitssReport.xsd
INGEST IEID EP9CWD39D_TX2SK9 INGEST_TIME 2017-12-22T03:19:37Z PACKAGE AA00004970_00001
AGREEMENT_INFO ACCOUNT UF PROJECT UFDC
FILES


xml version 1.0 encoding UTF-8
REPORT xmlns http:www.fcla.edudlsmddaitss xmlns:xsi http:www.w3.org2001XMLSchema-instance xsi:schemaLocation http:www.fcla.edudlsmddaitssdaitssReport.xsd
INGEST IEID EY6K09ZJ8_VVX0HH INGEST_TIME 2017-07-11T22:10:51Z PACKAGE AA00004970_00001
AGREEMENT_INFO ACCOUNT UF PROJECT UFDC
FILES



PAGE 1

3$77(516 2) 60$// 0$00$/ 63(&,(6 ',9(56,7< ,1 7+( %5$=,/,$1 $7/$17,& )25(67 %\ *867$92 $ % '$ )216(&$ $ ',66(57$7,21 35(6(17(' 72 7+( *5$'8$7( 6&+22/ 2) 7+( 81,9(56,7< 2) )/25,'$ ,1 3$57,$/ )8/),//0(17 2) 7+( 5(48,5(0(176 )25 7+( '(*5(( 2) '2&725 2) 3+,/2623+< 81,9(56,7< 2) )/25,'$

PAGE 2

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f DZDUGHG PH ZLWK D GRFWRUDO IHOORZVKLS

PAGE 3

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f 6LOYHULR 0DFKDGR 1H\ &DUQHYDO8 /XL] )HUQDQGR 0HOOR *LVHOD +HUUPDQQ -DLUR 9LHLUD (GXDUGR 9HDGR (GXDUGR 6DEDWR /XL] 3DXOR 3LQWR DQG 0DULD &ULVWLQD $OYHV 0U )HOLFLDQR $EGDOOD DQG 'U $QWRQLR &XSHUWLQR NLQGO\ DOORZHG PH WR ZRUN RQ WKHLU IDUPV DQG SURYLGHG KRXVLQJ 6DQWLQKR OHW XV VWD\ LQ KLV KRXVH DW WKH H[SHQVH RI IDPLO\ SUREOHPV DQG DP WKDQNIXO WR KLP 7KH 6WDWH )RUHVW ,QVWLWXWH RI 0LQDV *HUDLV ,()f SURYLGHG PH ZLWK DFFRPPRGDWLRQV DQG JDVROLQH DW WKH 5R 'RFH 6WDWH 3DUN DP YHU\ JUDWHIXO WR WKH VWDII RI WKH 3DUN (QJ )WDO -RVH /RXUHQFR /DGHLUD LGHQWLILHG WKH WUHHV Q DQG RXWVLGH RI WKH 5LR 'RFH 3DUN DP DOVR LQGHEWHG WR KLP 'UV 0 &DUOHWRQ &UHLJKWRQ / (PPRQV 0XVVHU 3 0\HUV DQG 3DWWRQ JHQHURXVO\ LGHQWLILHG WKH VPDOO PDPPDO YRXFKHU VSHFLPHQV (YHQ ULVNLQJ PDNLQJ KHU DQJU\ FDQQRW KHOS EXW WR UHFRJQL]H WKDW P\ ZLIHfV ORYH ZDV DV KHOSIXO DV KHU LQWHOOHFWXDO VWLPXODWLRQ DQG

PAGE 4

VXSSRUW 0\ VRQ %UXQR WROHUDWHG P\ EDG PRRGV DQG KRSH WR EH DEOH WR UHSD\ KLP LQ WKH IXWXUH 0\ SDUHQWV FRQWLQXHG WR SURYLGH PH ZLWK ORYH KHOS DQG VXSSRUW 7KH NQRZOHGJH WKDW FDQ FRXQW RQ WKHP DW DOO WLPHV LV RQH RI P\ PRVW YDOXDEOH VWUHQJWKV 7R DOO RI WKHP HPRWLRQDOO\ GHGLFDWH WKLV GLVVHUWDWLRQ ZRXOG DOVR OLNH WR GHGLFDWH WKLV ZRUN WR 'UV &HOLR 9DOOH DQG 5XVVHOO 0OWWHUPHLHU 7RJHWKHU DQG XQVHOILVKO\ WKH\ PDQDJHG LQ OHVV WKDQ \HDUV WR WUDLQ DQG SXW WR ZRUN PRUH %UD]LOLDQ ELRORJLVWV WKDQ RWKHUV KDG LQ WKH ODVW WKUHH GHFDGHV 7KH YDVW PDMRULW\ RI \RXQJ %UD]LOLDQ HFRORJLVWV SUHYLRXVO\ VR SURQH WR HDUO\ LQIDQWLFLGH DQG ZKR ZLOO EH ZRUNLQJ LQ %UD]LO LQ WKH QH[W GHFDGH ZLOO FHUWDLQO\ KDYH FURVVHG WKH SDWKV RI WKHVH WZR YLVLRQDU\ SHRSOH 7KH KLVWRU\ RI %UD]LOLDQ ELRORJLFDO FRQVHUYDWLRQ VFLHQFHV ZLOO VRRQ KDYH WR SD\ LWV GXHV WR &HOLR DQG 5XVV LY

PAGE 5

7$%/( 2) &217(176 3DJH $&.12:/('*(0(176 LL $%675$&7 9L L &+$37(5 ,1752'8&7,21 *HQHUDO %DFNJURXQG 6WXG\ 2UJDQL]DWLRQ %,2/2*< $1' 1$785$/ +,6725< 2) %5$=,/,$1 $7/$17,& )25(67 60$// 0$00$/6 ,QWURGXFWLRQ 0DWHULDOV DQG 0HWKRGV 6WXG\ 6LWHV &OLPDWH 7UDSSLQJ 5HVXOWV DQG 6SHFLHV $FFRXQWV 'LVFXVVLRQ 6HDVRQDOLW\ DQG 5HVRXUFH 8VH /LIH +LVWRU\ 3DWWHUQV 3RSXODWLRQ 7XUQRYHU 60$// 0$00$/ 63(&,(6 ',9(56,7< ,1 %5$=,/,$1 7523,&$/ 35,0$5< $1' 6(&21'$5< )25(676 2) ',))(5(17 6,=(6 ,QWURGXFWLRQ 0DWHULDOV DQG 0HWKRGV 7KH 5HJLRQ 6WXG\ 6LWHV 7UDSSLQJ +DELWDW 9DULDEOHV 6WDWLVWLFDO 0HWKRGV DQG 'DWD $QDO\VLV 'HSHQGHQW 9DULDEOHV 3UHGLFWRUV RI &RPPXQLW\ 6WUXFWXUH 3ULPDU\ 9HUVXV 6HFRQGDU\ )RUHVWV $UHD 6L]H (IIHFWV 5HVXOWV 'LVFXVVLRQ Y

PAGE 6

&RQVHUYDWLRQ DQG 0DQDJHPHQW ,PSOLFDWLRQV 7+( 5(/$7,9( 52/( 2) +$%,7$7 6(/(&7,21 &203(7,7,21 $1' 35('$725 35(6685( 21 7+( 6758&785( 2) 7523,&$/ )25(67 60$// 0$00$/ &20081,7,(6 ,QWURGXFWLRQ 0DWHULDOV DQG 0HWKRGV 6WXG\ 6LWHV 7UDSSLQJ +DELWDW 9DULDEOHV 6WDWLVWLFDO 0HWKRGV DQG 'DWD $QDO\VLV 5HVXOWV 6SHFLHV &RPSRVLWLRQ DQG $EXQGDQFH 3DWWHUQV +DELWDW 6HOHFWLRQ 6SHFLHV ,QWHUDFWLRQV 3UHGDWLRQ 'LVFXVVLRQ &21&/86,216 $1' 6<17+(6,6 /,7(5$785( &,7(' %,2*5$3+,&$/ 6.(7&+ 9,

PAGE 7

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f ZHUH UHJLVWHUHG GXULQJ WKH FRXUVH RI WKH VWXG\ ZLWK VSHFLHV ULFKQHVV DQG GLYHUVLW\ DFKLHYLQJ WKHLU KLJKHVW DW WKH VHFRQGJURZWK IRUHVW SORW RI ODUJH VL]H 6PDOO PDPPDO VSHFLHV GLYHUVLW\ RQO\ UHVSRQGHG WR WKH LQFUHDVH LQ DUHD VL]H DPRQJ VHFRQGDU\ IRUHVWV ZLWK SULPDU\ IRUHVWV EHLQJ IDLUO\ SRRU FRPPXQLWLHV 6SHFLHV

PAGE 8

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

PAGE 9

&+$37(5 ,1752'8&7,21 *HQHUDO %DFNJURXQG 7KH %UD]LOLDQ $WODQWLF IRUHVW LV RQH RI WKH PRVW WKUHDWHQHG HFRV\VWHPV LQ WKH ZRUOG ZLWK KDELWDW UHGXFHG WR VPDOO LVODQGV DQG YHU\ OLWWOH UHPDLQLQJ LQ XQGLVWXUEHG VWDWH 0LWWHUPHLHU HW DO )RQVHFD Df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

PAGE 10

KHWHURJHQHLW\ 5RVHQ]ZHLJ DQG :LQDNXU -RKQVRQ 0f&ORVNH\ 'XHVHU DQG 6KXJDUW -DPHV DQG :DUQHU $XJXVW /\QFK DQG :KLJKDP f $V KDV EHHQ REVHUYHG ZLWK SODQWV +RUQ f DQLPDO FRPPXQLWLHV FDQ VRPHWLPHV EH H[SHFWHG WR GHFUHDVH LQ GLYHUVLW\ LQ ODWH VXFFHVVLRQDO VWDJHV &RQQHOO f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f 0DF$UWKXU DQG :LOVRQ f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

PAGE 11

HIIHFWLYH LVRODWLRQ IURP WKH VRXUFHV RI FRORQLVWV HJ 9XLOOHXPHLHU 6HLIHUW %URZQ )DHWK DQG .DQH +DUULV %ODNH DQG .DUU f 1RWZLWKVWDQGLQJ WKH IDFW WKDW D IHZ DWWHPSWV KDYH EHHQ PDGH 0DOFROP f DUHDVL]H UHODWLRQVKLSV KDYH \HW WR EH GHPRQVWUDWHG IRU WURSLFDO VPDOO PDPPDO FRPPXQLWLHV 7KH VWUXFWXUH RI WKH KDELWDW PD\ DOVR LQIOXHQFH FRPPXQLW\ FRPSRVLWLRQ DQG UHODWLYH DEXQGDQFHV LQ LVODQGV RI LQFUHDVLQJ VL]H $V :LOOLDPV f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f ,Q DGGLWLRQ ERWK DUHD DQG KDELWDW VWUXFWXUH FDQ KDYH DQ XQGHUO\LQJ HIIHFW LQ WKH GHWHUPLQDWLRQ RI SDWWHUQV RI VSHFLHV LQWHUDFWLRQV ZLWKLQ FRPPXQLWLHV ZKLFK LQ WXUQ FDQ SRWHQWLDOO\ DIIHFW VSHFLHV FRPSRVLWLRQ DQG UHODWLYH DEXQGDQFHV RI WKHVH DVVHPEODJHV &RPSHWLWLYH LQWHUSOD\V DUH NQRZQ WR H[HUW LQIOXHQFH XSRQ VPDOO PDPPDO FRPPXQLW\ FKDUDFWHULVWLFV 3ULFH 'XHVHU DQG 3RUWHU /DFKHU HW DO LQ SUHVVf EXW PL[HG

PAGE 12

UHVXOWV KDYH EHHQ REWDLQHG LQ WKH DWWHPSWV WR GHPRQVWUDWH FRPSHWLWLRQ 0XUXD HW DO f EHOLHYH WKDW SUHYLRXV PRGHOV DOWKRXJK VXFFHVVIXO WR YDULRXV GHJUHHV LQ WKHLU SUHGLFWLYH SRZHU ZHUH FRPPRQO\ WRR VLPSOLVWLF 7KH UHVXOW LV WKDW VLJQLILFDQW DPRXQWV RI YDULDWLRQ LQ VSHFLHV ULFKQHVV DQG GLYHUVLW\ EHWZHHQ FRPPXQLWLHV DUH OHIW XQH[SODLQHG )XUWKHUPRUH VLQJOH SDUDPHWHU PRGHOV PD\ FRQFHDO WKH XQGHUO\LQJ PHFKDQLVPV E\ ZKLFK VSHFLHV GLYHUVLW\ LV SURPRWHG DQG PDLQWDLQHG &RQQRU DQG 0F&R\ f 7KHUHIRUH WKHLU DSSOLFDWLRQ WR FRQVHUYDWLRQ VFKHPHV FDQ EH SRWHQWLDOO\ GDQJHURXV VHH IRU H[DPSOH =LPPHUPDQ DQG %OHUUHJDDUG f 7KH PXOWLYDULDWH DSSURDFK ZKLFK WDNHV LQWR DFFRXQW WKH PDQ\ PRUH SRWHQWLDO LQIOXHQFHV DULVLQJ IURP DUHDVL]H UHODWLRQVKLSV KDELWDW VWUXFWXUH DQG VSHFLHV LQWHUDFWLRQV ZDV FKRVHQ IRU WKLV VWXG\ 7KLV DSSURDFK IDYRUV WKH LQIRUPDWLRQ FRQYH\LQJ YDOXH RI WKH PHWKRG UDWKHU WKDQ WKH TXDQWLWDWLYH PRGHOV LW FDQ SRVVLEO\ JHQHUDWH $OWKRXJK WKH PHWKRG UHVXOWV LQ PRGHOV WKDW PD\ KDYH OLPLWHG DSSOLFDELOLW\ WR GLIIHUHQW KDELWDWV WKH\ IUHTXHQWO\ KDYH KLJKHU KHXULVWLF YDOXH DQG DUH PRUH ELRORJLFDOO\ UHDOLVWLF 6WXG\ 2UJDQL]DWLRQ 7KH FRUH RI WKLV VWXG\ LV SUHVHQWHG LQ WKUHH PDLQ FKDSWHUV 7KH\ DUH PHDQW WR HLWKHU VWDQG DORQH DV LQGLYLGXDO VWXGLHV RU FRQVWLWXWH DGGLWLYH VHFWLRQV RI D PDMRU ZRUN &KDSWHU GHDOV ZLWK WKH ELRORJ\

PAGE 13

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

PAGE 14

DEXQGDQFHV ,W H[SORUHV WKH PHFKDQLVPV E\ ZKLFK SDWWHUQV REVHUYHG LQ WKH SUHYLRXV FKDSWHU DUH GHWHUPLQHG )LQDOO\ &KDSWHU RIIHUV D V\QWKHVLV RI WKH UHVXOWV WKH FRQFOXVLRQV DQG SURYLGHV D VXPPDU\ RI RYHUDOO PDMRU ILQGLQJV ,W DOVR H[SORUHV SRVVLEOH FRQVHUYDWLRQ DSSOLFDWLRQV RI WKH UHVXOWV RI WKLV UHVHDUFK

PAGE 15

&+$37(5 %,2/2*< $1' 1$785$/ +,6725< 2) %5$=,/,$1 $7/$17,& )25(67 60$// 0$00$/6 ,QWURGXFWLRQ 7KH QHRWURSLFDO UHJLRQ HQFRPSDVVHV VRPH RI WKH PRVW WKUHDWHQHG HFRV\VWHPV LQ WKH ZRUOG DQG \HW WKH PDPPDOLDQ IDXQD RI WKLV DUHD VWLOO UHPDLQV YHU\ SRRUO\ NQRZQ 0DUHV DQG *HQRZD\V f ,Q 6RXWK $PHULFD WKH %UD]LOLDQ $WODQWLF IRUHVW KDV EHHQ WKH YHJHWDWLRQ IRUPDWLRQ VXEMHFWHG WR WKH KLJKHVW UDWH RI GHVWUXFWLRQ ZLWK OHVV WKDQ b RI WKH UHJLRQ SRVVHVVLQJ VRPH IRUP RI IRUHVW FRYHU )RQVHFD Df DQG SUREDEO\ OHVV WKDQ b LQ XQGLVWXUEHG VWDWH 0LWWHUPHLHU HW DO f 1RQHWKHOHVV WKH IHZ QDWXUDO KLVWRU\ VWXGLHV FRQGXFWHG RQ LWV IDXQD KDYH LQGLFDWHG WKDW VSHFLHV GLYHUVLW\ LV TXLWH KLJK ZLWK PDQ\ IDXQDO HOHPHQWV EHLQJ XQLTXH WR WKH UHJLRQ 0HOOR/HLWDR 0XOOHU )RQVHFD XQSXEOLVKHG GDWDf 7KH SLRQHHU ZRUNV RI 0RRMHQ f 9LHLUD f DQG &DEUHUD f SURYLGH D JHQHUDO GDWD EDVH LQGLFDWLQJ WKDW WKHUH DUH DW OHDVW VSHFLHV RI QRQYRODQW PDPPDOV LQ WKH $WODQWLF IRUHVW UHJLRQ DERXW r RI ZKLFK DUH HQGHPLF :HUH WKH WD[RQRP\ RI PRVW RI WKH JURXSV EHWWHU XQGHUVWRRG RWKHU VSHFLHV ZRXOG SUREDEO\ EH GHVFULEHG 7KHUH DUH DW OHDVW PDUVXSLDO

PAGE 16

DQG URGHQW VSHFLHV GHVFULEHG IRU WKH UHJLRQ RI ZKLFK ; DQG ; UHVSHFWLYHO\ DUH HQGHPLF WR WKH UHJLRQ %HFDXVH RI SDVW DQG SUHVHQW KDELWDW GHVWUXFWLRQ WKH IDXQD LV LQFUHDVLQJO\ LVRODWHG LQWR VPDOO SDWFKHV DQG PDQ\ PHPEHUV RI WKLV XQLTXH HFRV\VWHP DUH QRZ HQGDQJHUHG 7KLV VLWXDWLRQ KDV EHHQ GRFXPHQWHG IRU WKH PRVW FRQVSLFXRXV HOHPHQWV RI WKH PDPPDOLDQ IDXQD WKH SULPDWHV &RLPEUD)L,KR DQG 0LWWHUPHLHU 0LWWHUPHLHU HW DO )RQVHFD Ef 1RQHWKHOHVV WKH ULFK DQG KLJKO\ HQGHPLF VPDOO PDPPDO IDXQD RI WKH %UD]LOLDQ $WODQWLF IRUHVW UHJLRQ KDV EHHQ WKH VXEMHFW RI YHU\ IHZ ORQJWHUP VWXGLHV HVSHFLDOO\ ZKHQ FRPSDUHG WR WKH $PD]RQ UHJLRQ HJ 3LQH /RYHMR\ HW DO 7HUERUJK HW DO 0DOFROP f RU WKH &HUUDGR $OKR $OKR HW DO )RQVHFD DQG 5HGIRUG /DFKHU HW DO LQ SUHVV 1OWLNPDQ DQG 0DUHV f 7KH RQO\ GHWDLOHG VWXG\ RI $WODQWLF IRUHVW VPDOO PDPPDOV LV QRZ RYHU \HDUVROG 'DYLV f +LVWRULFDOO\ WKH %UD]LOLDQ $WODQWLF IRUHVW H[WHQGHG IURP WKH FRDVW WR WKH HDVWHUQ DQG SRUWLRQV RI WKH ZHVWHUQ VORSHV RI WKH FRDVWDO PRXQWDLQV +XHFN $ORQVR f DQ DUHD RI DSSUR[LPDWHO\ VTXDUH NLORPHWHUV :KHUH UDLQIDOO SHUPLWV WKH SUHVHQFH RI WDOO HYHUJUHHQV WKLV W\SH RI IRUHVW H[WHQGV LQWR WKH ZHVWHUQ VORSHV RI WKH FRDVWDO IRUPDWLRQ 'XH WR D UDLQ VKDGRZ WKH YHJHWDWLRQ RI WKH ZHVWHUQ VORSHV ZKHUH WKLV VWXG\ ZDV FRQGXFWHG SRVVHVVHV D QXPEHU RI GHFLGXRXV WUHH VSHFLHV ZKLFK ORVH WKHLU OHDYHV GXULQJ WKH DSSUR[LPDWHO\ PRQWKV RI WKH GU\ VHDVRQ 'XULQJ WKH ZHW VHDVRQ KRZHYHU WKH IRUHVWV RI ERWK

PAGE 17

WKH HDVWHUQ DQG ZHVWHUQ UHJLRQV DUH SK\VLRJQRPLFDOO\ AGLVWLQJXLVKDEOH ,Q DGGLWLRQ WKH IDXQDO HOHPHQWV DUH PRVWO\ WKH VDPH JHQHUDOO\ EHORQJLQJ WR WKH VDPH ELRJHRJUDSKLFDO UHJLRQ 0XOOHU f 7KH REMHFWLYH RI WKLV VWXG\ ZDV WR LQYHVWLJDWH VHYHUDO DVSHFWV RI WKH ELRORJ\ DQG QDWXUDO KLVWRU\ RI HDVWHUQ %UD]LOLDQ QRQYRODQW VPDOO PDPPDOV 'XULQJ D SHULRG RI PRQWKV GDWD RQ WKH JHQHUDO DVSHFWV RI SRSXODWLRQ G\QDPLFV EUHHGLQJ VXEVWUDWH XVH DQG PRYHPHQW SDWWHUQV RI VPDOO PDPPDOV PDUVXSLDOV DQG URGHQWVf ZHUH FROOHFWHG LQ VL[ IRUHVW SORWV DW WKUHH PDLQ VLWHV LQ WKH VWDWH RI 0LQDV *HUDLV %UD]LO 0RUSKRPHWULF GDWD ZHUH DOVR FROOHFWHG 6SHFLHV FRPSRVLWLRQ UHODWLYH DEXQGDQFHV DQG RWKHU FRPPXQLW\ VWUXFWXUH SDWWHUQV DUH SUHVHQWHG HOVHZKHUH &KDSWHUV DQG f 0DWHULDOV DQG 0HWKRGV 6WXG\ 6LWHV 6PDOO PDPPDO FRPPXQLWLHV RI VL[ IRUHVW SORWV WZR DW HDFK RI WKUHH VLWHV LQ WKH VWDWH RI 0LQDV *HUDLV ZHUH WKH VXEMHFWV RI WKLV VWXG\ )LJXUH f $W HDFK VLWH D SULPDU\ DQG D VHFRQGDU\ IRUHVW SORWV ZHUH VHOHFWHG $ VHW RI WKUHH SDUDOOHO WUDQVHFW WUDSSLQJ OLQHV ZDV HVWDEOLVKHG LQ HDFK 7KH SULPDU\ IRUHVW SORWV VKRZHG YHUWLFDO VWUDWLILFDWLRQ ZLWK DQ DYHUDJH FDQRS\ KHLJKW RI PHWHUV 7KH KHUEDFHRXV VWUDWXP ZDV VRPHZKDW VSDUVH ZKLOH WKH PLGVWRU\ ZDV

PAGE 18

)LJXUH /RFDWLRQ RI VWXG\ VLWHV FRXQW\ f 3DUTXH (VWDGXDO )ORUHVWDO )D]HQGD 0RQWHV &ODURV &DUDWLQJD DQG f )D]HQGD (VPHUDOGD GR 5LR 'RFH 0DULOHOD ,SDQHPD FRXQWLHV 5LR &DVFD FRXQW\ f

PAGE 19

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f )D]HQGD 0RQWHV &ODURV ZDV VHOHFWHG DV WKH VHFRQG VLWH IRU WKLV VWXG\ ,W LV D FRIIHH DQG FDWWOH IDUP ORFDWHG ZLWKLQ WKH FRXQWLHV RI ,SDQHPD DQG &DUDWLQJD 7KH WRWDO DUHD RI WKH IDUP LV DERXW KD KD RI ZKLFK UHPDLQ XQGHU IRUHVW FRYHU $ UHVHDUFK VWDWLRQ XQGHU WKH DGPLQLVWUDWLRQ RI WKH %UD]LOLDQ )RXQGDWLRQ IRU &RQVHUYDWLRQ RI 1DWXUH )%&1f DQG WKH )HGHUDO 8QLYHUVLW\ RI 0LQDV *HUDLV 8)0*f ZDV HVWDEOLVKHG LQ WKH IDUP LQ $ VHFRQG JURZWK IRUHVW SDWFK DW )D]HQGD 0RQWHV &ODURV NQRZQ DV -DR ZDV VHOHFWHG DQG DQRWKHU XQGHU SULPDU\ IRUHVW 0DWDR ZDV DOVR XVHG

PAGE 20

7KH WKLUG VLWH ZDV WKH 5LR 'RFH 6WDWH 3DUN ZKLFK KDV SRUWLRQV RI LWV DUHD ZLWKLQ WKH FRXQW\ RI +DULOHLD 7KH SDUN ZLWK LWV KD FRQVWLWXWHV WKH ODUJHVW FRQWLQXRXV DUHD XQGHU WURSLFDO IRUHVW LQ WKH VWDWH RI 0LQDV *HUDLV ,W ZDV FUHDWHG LQ DQG KDV EHHQ HYHU VLQFH XQGHU WKH MXULVGLFWLRQ RI WKH *RYHUQPHQW RI WKH VWDWH RI 0LQDV *HUDLV 6LQFH WKH FUHDWLRQ RI WKH 6WDWH RI 0LQDV *HUDLV )RUHVW ,QVWLWXWH ,()f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f VWDWHV WKDW UDLQIDOO IRU WKH ZHVWHUQ VORSHV RI WKH $WODQWLF IRUHVW UHJLRQ V DOZD\V EHORZ PP DQQXDOO\ ,Q VRPH DUHDV LW FDQ DFKLHYH D OLWWOH RYHU PP 'XULQJ WKH VWXG\ SHULRG WKH UHJLRQ H[SHULHQFHG DQ XQXVXDOO\ GU\ SHULRG DV ZH FDQ REVHUYH LQ WKH FOLPDWRJUDP RI :DOWHU f FRQVWUXFWHG ZLWK GDWD FROOHFWHG DW

PAGE 21

)D]HQGD 0RQWHV &ODURV )LJXUH f WRWDO UDLQIDOO IRU WKH ILUVW PRQWKV RI WUDSSLQJ ZDV PP ZKLOH IRU WKH ODVW PRQWKV UDLQIDOO WRWDOHG PP 5DLQIDOO LV KLJKO\ VHDVRQDO EHLQJ FRQFHQWUDWHG EHWZHHQ WKH PRQWKV RI 6HSWHPEHU DQG )HEUXDU\ )LJXUH f $YHUDJH PRQWKO\ SUHFLSLWDWLRQ IRU WKH UDLQ\ VHDVRQ ZDV PP ZKLOH GU\ VHDVRQ UDLQIDOO DYHUDJHG RQO\ PP PRQWKO\ 0HDQ PLQLPXP DQQXDO WHPSHUDWXUH GXULQJ WKH VWXG\ SHULRG ZDV DERXW & FORVH WR WKH DYHUDJH IRU WKH UHJLRQ +XHFN f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f ZDV SODFHG RQ WKH JURXQG DW HDFK VWDWLRQ $W HYHU\ RWKHU VWDWLRQ D VHFRQG 7RPDKDZN WUDS RI WKH

PAGE 22

0217+/< 5$,1)$// PPf 0($1 7(03(5$785( &f 5$,1)$// 6853/86 '528*+7 -XQ -XO $XJ6HS2FW 1RY'HF -DQ )HE 0DU $SU 0D\ -XQ -XO $XJ6HS2FW 0217+6 )LJXUH &OLPDWH GLDJUDP RI :DOWHU f IRU WKH IRUHVWV RI WKH ZHVWHUQ VORSHV RI WKH $WODQWLF IRUHVW EXLOW XVLQJ GDWD FROOHFWHG DW )D]HQGD 0RQWHV &ODURV EHWZHHQ -XQH DQG 2FWREHU 7KH GLDJUDP LQGLFDWHV SHULRGV RI GURXJKW DQG RI ZDWHU VXUSOXV 7KH GU\ VHDVRQ FDQ EH GHILQHG EHWZHHQ WKH PRQWKV RI 0DUFK DQG $XJXVW 7HPSHUDWXUHV DUH JLYHQ LQ R& DQG UDLQIDOO LQ PP

PAGE 23

VDPH VL]H ZDV ZLUHG HLWKHU WR D EUDQFK RU YLQH DW KHLJKWV IURP WR PHWHUV KLJK ,Q DGGLWLRQ WR WKHVH WUDSV HYHU\ RWKHU VWDWLRQ SRVVHVVHG D PRXVHVL]HG FROODSVLEOH 6KHUPDQ WUDS + % 6KHUPDQ 7UDSV ,QF 7DOODKDVVHH )/f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f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

PAGE 24

7DEOH 6FKHPDWLF UHSUHVHQWDWLRQ RI WKH ILUVW IRXU VWDWLRQV LQ WUDQVHFW WUDS OLQHV $GGLWLRQDO VWDWLRQV DUH UHSOLFDWHV RI WKH ILUVW IRXU (DFK WUDSOLQH LV PHWHUV ORQJ VHSDUDWHG IURP HDFK RWKHU E\ PHWHUV 6WDWLRQV DUH GLVSRVHG ZLWKLQ HDFK OLQH DW HYHU\ PHWHUV /,1( 21( /,1( 7:2 f§Pf§ f§Pf§ /,1( 7+5(( *URXQG *URXQG *URXQG 7RPDKDZN 7RPDKDZN 7RPDKDZN $ERYH*URXQG *URXQG $ERYH*URXQG 7RPDKDZN 6KHUPDQ 7RPDKDZN f§Pf§ *URXQG *URXQG *URXQG 7RPDKDZN 7RPDKDZN 7RPDKDZN /DUJH 7UDS $ERYH*URXQG /DUJH 7UDS $ERYH*URXQG 7RPDKDZN $ERYH*URXQG 6KHUPDQ 6KHUPDQ f§Pf§ *URXQG *URXQG *URXQG 7RPDKDZN 7RPDKDZN 7RPDKDZN $ERYH*URXQG $ERYH*URXQG $ERYH*URXQG 7RPDKDZN 6KHUPDQ 7RPDKDZN f§Pf§ *URXQG *URXQG *URXQG 7RPDKDZN 7RPDKDZN 7RPDKDZN /DUJH 7UDS $ERYH*URXQG /DUJH 7UDS *URXQG 7RPDKDZN *URXQG 6KHUPDQ 6KHUPDQ

PAGE 25

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
PAGE 26

%RG\ OHQJWK 7DLO OHQJWK (DU OHQJWK +LQG IRRW OHQJWK 5HSURGXFWLYH FRQGLWLRQ )HPDOH URGHQWV ZHUH FKHFNHG IRU SHUIRUDWHG YDJLQDV DOVR QRWLFHG ZKHWKHU LQGLYLGXDOV ZHUH SUHJQDQW LQ ODWH VWDJHVf RU ODFWDWLQJ 0DOH URGHQWV ZHUH FRQVLGHUHG LQ EUHHGLQJ FRQGLWLRQ LI WHVWHV ZHUH GHVFHQGHG )HPDOH PDUVXSLDOV ZHUH FRQVLGHUHG LQ EUHHGLQJ FRQGLWLRQ LI QHRQDWHV ZHUH IRXQG LQ HLWKHU SRXFK RU DWWDFKHG WR QLSSOHV RU LI WKH QLSSOH DUHD VKRZHG VLJQV RI UHFHQW QXUVLQJ E\ SUHYLRXV OLWWHU 0DOH PDUVXSLDOV ZLWK WHVWHV RI UHGXFHG VL]H ZHUH FRQVLGHUHG SUHSXEHUWDO ZKLOH IRU VRPH VSHFLHV 0HWDFKLUXV QXGLFDXGDWXV 0DUPRVD LQFDQD 0DUPRVD FLQUHD 0DUPRVD DJL8V DQG 3KLODQGHU RSRVVXPf DEGRPLQDO RU VWHUQDO VFHQW JODQG DFWLYLW\ LQGLFDWHG EUHHGLQJ FRQGLWLRQ :H DOVR UHFRUGHG DQ\ SRXFK \RXQJ ROG HQRXJK WR EH VH[HG %HKDYLRU XSRQ UHOHDVH $QDO\VLV RI YDULDQFH 3URFHGXUH */0 3&6$6 6$6 ,QVWLWXWH &DU\ 1&f ZDV XVHG WR WHVW WKH QXOO K\SRWKHVLV RI DEVHQFH RI VH[XDO GLPRUSKLVP XVLQJ WKH IROORZLQJ PRUSKRORJLFDO FKDUDFWHUV ZHLJKW ERG\ OHQJWK WDLO OHQJWK KLQG IRRW OHQJWK DQG HDU OHQJWK .UXVNDO:DO LV WHVWV ZHUH SHUIRUPHG WR WHVW IRU GLIIHUHQFHV LQ SHUVLVWHQFH WLPHV LQ WUDSOLQHV DPRQJ VH[HV

PAGE 27

6LQFH WKH QXPEHU RI DUERUHDO WUDSV LQ HDFK VHW RI WKUHH WUDSOLQHV bf ZDV GLIIHUHQW IURP WKDW RI WHUUHVWULDO RQHV bf DQDO\VLV RI GLIIHUHQWLDO WUDSSLQJ VXFFHVV RI DUERUHDO YHUVXV WHUUHVWULDO WUDSV ZDV FRQGXFWHG ZLWK FRUUHFWLRQV WR DFFRXQW IRU WKH GLIIHUHQWLDO SUREDELOLW\ RI WUDSSLQJ LQ WKH GLIIHUHQW VWUDWD :KHUH VDPSOH VL]H SHUPLWWHG FKLVTXDUH WHVWV ZHUH SHUIRUPHG WR WHVW WKH QXOO K\SRWKHVLV RI ODFN RI GLIIHUHQFH LQ VXEVWUDWH XVH DPRQJ VH[HV )RU WKLV DQDO\VLV DOO SURSRUWLRQV ZHUH DUFVLQ WUDQVIRUPHG 6RNDO DQG 5RKOI f 5HVXOWV DQG 6SHFLHV $FFRXQWV 'XULQJ WKH FRXUVH RI WKLV VWXG\ D WRWDO RI LQGLYLGXDOV RI PDUVXSLDO DQG URGHQW VSHFLHV ZHUH FDXJKW WLPHV LQ DOO VL[ IRUHVW SORWV 7DEOH f 2QH LQGLYLGXDO RI WKH VSHFLHV 0RQRGHOSKLV DPHULFDQD ZDV WUDSSHG RQ RQH RI WKH DX[LOLDU\ OLQHV DW WKH SULPDU\ IRUHVW RI )D]HQGD 0RQWHV &ODURV 0HDQ WUDSSLQJ VXFFHVV DYHUDJHG RYHU PRQWKV RI WUDSSLQJ DW DOO VLWHV ZDV b )RU PRVW VSHFLHV WUDSSLQJ VXFFHVV ZDV PXFK KLJKHU GXULQJ WKH FROG GU\ PRQWKV GURSSLQJ VKDUSO\ DURXQG 2FWREHU ZLWK WKH RQVHW RI UDLQV &DOXURP\V SKLODQGHU :RROO\ RSRVVXPV ZHUH RQO\ UHJLVWHUHG IRU WKH 5LR 'RFH 6WDWH 3DUN $OWKRXJK RFFDVLRQDOO\ WUDSSHG RQ WKH JURXQG WKLV VSHFLHV LV PRVWO\ DUERUHDO 'DYLV 1RZDN DQG 3DUDGLVR

PAGE 28

f ,Q WKLV VWXG\ RQO\ RQH LQGLYLGXDO ZDV FDSWXUHG RQ WKH JURXQG 8SRQ UHOHDVH DOO LQGLYLGXDOV FOLPEHG LQWR FDQRSLHV GLVDSSHDULQJ IURP VLJKW DW KHLJKWV RI DERXW PHWHUV %RWK WKH VPDOO QXPEHU RI DUERUHDO WUDSV bf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f $GXOW PDOHV ZHUH VLJQLILFDQWO\ KHDYLHU WKDQ IHPDOHV 7DEOH f +LQG IHHW ZHUH DOVR VH[XDOO\ GLPRUSKLF 2WKHU ELRPHWULF SDUDPHWHUV GLG QRW YDU\ EHWZHHQ VH[HV 2SRVVXPV KDYH EHHQ SUHYLRXVO\ GHVFULEHG DV EHLQJ PDLQO\ WHUUHVWULDO DOWKRXJK WKH\ DUH DEOH WR FOLPE RSSRUWXQHO\ ZKLOH IRUDJLQJ 0LOHV HW DO f 7KHVH JHQHUDOL]DWLRQV ZHUH FRQILUPHG KHUH 2YHUDOO b RI PDUVXSLDOLV FDSWXUHV ZHUH IURP WHUUHVWULDO WUDSV ZKLOH b RI LQGLYLGXDOV UHOHDVHG DOVR UHPDLQHG RQ WKH JURXQG +RZHYHU \RXQJ RSRVVXPV WHQG WR XVH DHULDO

PAGE 29

7DEOH 7UDSSLQJ UHVXOWV IRU DOO VL[ IRUHVW SORWV WRJHWKHU GXULQJ PRQWKV RI WUDSSLQJ 63(&,(6 1XPEHU RI )LUVW &DSWXUHV 7RWDO 1XPEHU RI &DSWXUHV &DOXURP\V SKLODQGHU 'LGHOSKLV PDUVXSLDOLV +DUPRVD DTLOLV 0DUPRVD FLQHUHD +DUPRVD LQFDQD 0DUPRVD PLFURWDUVXV 0HWDFKL UXV QXGLFDXGDWXV 3KLODQGHU RSRVVXP $EUDZD\RPYV UXVFKL $NRGRQ FXUVRU 1HFWRP\V VDXDPLRHV 2U\]RP\V FDRLWR 2UY]RPYV QOTULRHV 2U\]RP\V VXEIODYXV 2U\]RP\V WULQLWDWLV 2[\P\FWHUXV UREHUWL 5KLRLGRP\V PDVWDFDOLV (FK\P\V VR 3URHFKLPYV VHWRVXV 727$/

PAGE 30

7DEOH %LRPHWULF GDWD IRU WKUHH PDOHV DQG WKUHH IHPDOHV RI &DOXURPYV SKLODQGHU :HLJKW LV JLYHQ LQ JPV DQG RWKHU ERG\ PHDVXUHPHQWV LQ PP 0$/( )(0$/( 0HDQ 6W'HY 0HDQ 6W'HY :HLJKW %RG\ OHQJWK 7DLO OHQJWK +LQG )RRW (DU OHQJWK

PAGE 31

7DEOH %LRPHWULF GDWD IRU DGXOW PDOH DQG IHPDOH 'LGHOSKLV PDUVXSLDO ,V :HLJKW LV JLYHQ LQ JPV DQG RWKHU ERG\ PHDVXUHPHQWV LQ PP 1 QXPEHU RI LQGLYLGXDOV 6W 'HY 6WDQGDUG 'HYLDWLRQ 3 UHIHUV WR SYDOXH DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK DQDO\VLV RI YDULDQFH IRU VH[XDO GLPRUSKLVP QV S!r S rr S rrr Sf 0$/( )(0$/( 0HDQ 6W'HY 1 0HDQ 6W'HY 1 3 :HLJKW WW %RG\ OHQJWK Q V 7DLO OHQJWK QV +LQG )RRW rr (DU OHQJWK QV

PAGE 32

)UHTXHQF\ 0DOHV af§ )HPDOHV )LJXUH )UHTXHQF\ RI ,QGLYLGXDOV RI >K PDUVXSLDO LV SHUVLVWLQJ ZLWKLQ WUDSOLQHV

PAGE 33

VXEVWUDWH PRUH RIWHQ WKDQ DGXOWV $SSUR[LPDWHO\ b RI WKH LQGLYLGXDOV UHOHDVHG RXW RI f FOLPEHG LQWR WUHHV DQGRU RQWR YLQHV 7KH VDPH UHVXOW ZDV REWDLQHG E\ 'DYLV f 7KHUH ZHUH QR VLJQLILFDQW GLIIHUHQFHV LQ VXEVWUDWH XVH EHWZHHQ DGXOW PDOHV DQG IHPDOHV $ WRWDO RI PDOHV DQG IHPDOHV ZHUH FDSWXUHG DQG WLPHV UHVSHFWLYHO\ ZLWK VH[ UDWLRV RI ERWK QXPEHU RI LQGLYLGXDOV DQG WRWDO FDSWXUHV GHYLDWLQJ YHU\ OLWWOH IURP %DVHG XSRQ UHFDSWXUHV PDOHV GLG QRW SHUVLVW IRU ORQJ SHULRGV RQ JULGV DYHUDJLQJ PRQWKV )HPDOHV VWD\HG ZLWKLQ WKH WUDSOLQHV DQ DYHUDJH RI PRQWKV EXW WKLV GLIIHUHQFH LV QRW VLJQLILFDQW S )LJXUH f 5HFRUG SHUVLVWHQFH WLPHV ZHUH DFKLHYHG E\ RQH IHPDOH DQG RQH PDOH ZKLFK ZHUH UHFRUGHG IRU D WRWDO RI PRQWKV )OHPLQJ f IRXQG VLPLODU ORZ SHUVLVWHQFH WLPHV IRU 'LGHOSKLV PDUVXSLDO LV LQ 3DQDPD ,I WKH GDWD IURP 6XQTXLVW HW DO f ZLWK PDUVXSLDO LV IURP 9HQH]XHOD LV H[WUDSRODWHG WR WKH SUHVHQW VWXG\ WKH ORZ SHUVLVWHQFH WLPHV FDQ SUREDEO\ EH DWWULEXWHG WR KLJK PRUWDOLW\ UDWHV UDWKHU WKDQ WR GLVSHUVDO 7KH GLVWDQFH WUDYHOOHG EHWZHHQ VXFFHVVLYH FDSWXUHV ZHUH QRW VLJQLILFDQWO\ GLIIHUHQW EHWZHHQ PDOHV DQG IHPDOHV 7KH RYHUDOO PHDQ ZDV PHWHUV PD[LPXP PHWHUVf VOLJKWO\ KLJKHU WKDQ WKH ILJXUH JLYHQ E\ )OHPLQJ f +RZHYHU VLPLODU WR JULG WUDSSLQJ PHWKRGV WUDSOLQHV XQGHUHVWLPDWH DFWXDO GLVWDQFHV

PAGE 34

WUDYHOOHG LQ D QLJKW ZKLFK ZDV IRXQG E\ 6XQTXLVW HW DO f XVLQJ UDGLR WUDQVPLWWHUV WR DYHUDJH RQH NLORPHWHU (YHQ WKRXJK WUDSSLQJ VXFFHVV GXULQJ WKH ILUVW WKUHH PRQWKV RI VWXG\ ZDV YHU\ KLJK SRSXODWLRQ OHYHOV DV UHIOHFWHG E\ WKH QXPEHU RI FDSWXUHV GLG QRW DSSHDU WR YDU\ EHWZHHQ GU\ DQG UDLQ\ VHDVRQV )LJXUH f 5HSURGXFWLYH DFWLYLW\ RQ WKH RWKHU KDQG ZDV KLJKO\ VHDVRQDO ZLWK PRVW IHPDOHV EUHHGLQJ MXVW SULRU DQG ZHOO LQWR WKH UDLQ\ VHDVRQ 7KH QXPEHU RI MXYHQLOHV UHFRUGHG DOVR IROORZHG WKLV VDPH SDWWHUQ )LJXUH f 7ZR IHPDOHV ZHUH UHFRUGHG DV KDYLQJ WZR FRQVHFXWLYH OLWWHUV WKH ILUVW LQ $XJXVW DQG WKH VHFRQG LQ 2FWREHU 7KH VDPH KDV EHHQ REVHUYHG E\ &ROOLQV LQ %UD]LO LQ 1RZDN DQG 3DUDGLVR f 7KH RFFXUUHQFH RI WZR FRQVHFXWLYH OLWWHUV KDV DOVR EHHQ UHSRUWHG HOVHZKHUH IRU &K PDUVXSLDO LV LQ &RORPELD 7\QGDOH%LVFRH DQG 0DFNHQ]LH f DQG VRXWKHDVWHUQ %UD]LO 'DYLV f $Q LQWHUHVWLQJ UHVXOW ZDV WKH GHFUHDVH LQ RSRVVXP DEXQGDQFHV GXULQJ WKH VHFRQG \HDUVfV ODWH GU\ VHDVRQ HVSHFLDOO\ LQ WKH VPDOO IRUHVW SORWV 6PDOOHU SORWV DUH ZKHUH K PDUVXSLDO LV ZDV PRVW IRXQG WR EH PRVW DEXQGDQW GXULQJ WKH ILUVW \HDU RI WUDSSLQJ DQG FDSWXUH VXFFHVV ZDV PXFK ORZHU WKDQ IRU WKH SUHYLRXV \HDU )LJXUH f 7KH UHDVRQ IRU WKLV DSSDUHQW SRSXODWLRQ FUDVK LV QRW \HW FOHDU EXW PD\ EH GXH WR D UHGXFWLRQ LQ IRRG UHVRXUFHV WKDW RFFXUUHG DV D UHVXOW RI D VHYHUH GU\ VHDVRQ $OWKRXJK WKH UHGXFWLRQ LQ DEXQGDQFH ZDV REVHUYHG DFURVV DOO SORWV VPDOOHU

PAGE 35

-XQ -XO $XJ6HS2FW1RY'HF-DQ)HE0DU $SU0D\-XQ -XO $XJ6HS2FW , 1XPEHU RI &DSWXUHV ++ 5DLQ\ 6HDVRQ /LPLWV )LJXUH 1XPEHU RI FDSWXUHV RI 'A PDUVXSLDO LV DFFRUGLQJ WR PRQWKO\ WUDSSLQJ SHULRG 6WUDLJKW OLQHV HQFORVH ERXQGDULHV RI UDLQ\ VHDVRQ 6HSWHPEHU WR )HEUXDU\f

PAGE 36

, %UHHGLQJ )HPDOHV 1XPEHU RW -XYHQLOHV 0HDQ LLDLPDL )LJXUH 1XPEHU RI EUHHGLQJ IHPDOHV DQG MXYHQLOHV RI ' PDUVXSLDO LV DFFRUGLQJ WR PRQWKO\ WUDSSLQJ SHULRG /LQH UHSUHVHQWV PHDQ GDLO\ UDLQIDOO PPf

PAGE 37

IRUHVWV H[SHULHQFHG WKH KLJKHVW GHFUHDVH OHQGLQJ VXSSRUW WR WKLV K\SRWKHVLV VLQFH SRSXODWLRQV LQKDELWLQJ VPDOOHU SORWV VKRXOG EH PRUH VXVFHSWLEOH WR D GHFUHDVH LQ IRRG UHVRXUFHV $YHUDJH OLWWHU VL]H RI SRXFK \RXQJ ZDV ZLWK D 0) VH[ UDWLR RI KLJKO\ VNHZHG WRZDUGV PDOHV 7DEOH f 2YHUDOO WZR WKLUGV RI IHPDOHV SURGXFHG PDOH ELDVHG OLWWHUV 7KLV DYHUDJH OLWWHU VL]H LV PXFK KLJKHU WKDQ WKRVH REWDLQHG LQ &RORPELD E\ 7\QGDOH%LVFRH DQG 0DFNHQ]LH f RU E\ )OHPLQJ f LQ 3DQDPD %RWK VWXGLHV UHSRUWHG DYHUDJHV RI DSSUR[LPDWHO\ \RXQJ ,Q DGGLWLRQ WKHVH VWXGLHV IRXQG WKDW VH[ UDWLRV RI SRXFK \RXQJ GLG QRW GLIIHU IURP D UDWLR $XVWDG DQG 6XQTXLVW f ZHUH DEOH WR H[SHULPHQWDOO\ LQGXFH PDOHELDVHG VH[ UDWLRV LQ 'cB PDUVXSLDO LV E\ SURYLGLQJ GLHWDU\ VXSSOHPHQWDWLRQ 7KHUHIRUH UHODWLYH WR WKH VLWHV VWXGLHG E\ )OHPLQJ f DQG 7\GDOH%LVFRH DQG 0DFNHQ]LH f WKH IRUHVWV VDPSOHG LQ WKH SUHVHQW UHVHDUFK PD\ EH PRUH SURGXFWLYH IRU FRPPRQ RSRVVXPV ZKLFK PD\ KDYH UHVXOWHG LQ WKH REVHUYHG VNHZHG VH[ UDWLRV 0DUPRVD DJLOLV 7KLV VPDOO DUERUHDO PDUVXSLDO FDQ EH IDLUO\ FRPPRQ LQ JDOOHU\ IRUHVWV RI WKH &HUUDGR UHJLRQ 1LWLNPDQ DQG 0DUHV f EXW ZDV LQIUHTXHQWO\ FDXJKW LQ WKLV VWXG\ 7KH ILUVW LQGLYLGXDO RI WKH VSHFLHV ZDV UHFRUGHG RQO\ DIWHU PRQWKV RI WUDSSLQJ ,Q WRWDO WKUHH PDOHV DQG IRXU IHPDOHV ZHUH FDXJKW WLPHV LQ WZR IRUHVW SORWV 7HQ RI WKH HOHYHQ FDSWXUHV bf ZHUH

PAGE 38

7DEOH /LWWHU VL]HV DQG VH[ UDWLRV RI 'LGHOSKLV PDUVXSLDO LV SRXFK \RXQJ ,' 1XPEHU 1XPEHU RI )HPDOH
PAGE 39

RQ WUDSV SODFHG RQ WUHHV RU YLQHV ZKLFK LV D FDSWXUH UDWH RQ DUERUHDO WUDSV VLPLODU WR WKDW REWDLQHG E\ 1LWLNPDQ DQG 0DUHV f $OKR HW DO f DOVR IRXQG 0AB DJL LV WR EH SUHIHUHQWLDOO\ DUERUHDO LQ JDOOHU\ IRUHVW KDELWDW ([FHSW IRU WZR PDOHV DQG RQH IHPDOH ZKLFK ZHUH UHFRUGHG LQ WUDSOLQHV IRU WZR PRQWKV QR RWKHU DQLPDO ZDV UHFDSWXUHG LQ VXEVHTXHQW WUDSSLQJ VHVVLRQV 7KH RQO\ LQGLYLGXDO IRU ZKLFK GDWD RQ PRYHPHQW EHWZHHQ WUDSSLQJ VWDWLRQV ZHUH REWDLQHG WUDYHOOHG PHWHUV LQ FRQVHFXWLYH QLJKWV D ILJXUH YHU\ FORVH WR WKDW GHWHUPLQHG E\ 1LWLNPDQ DQG 0DUHV f %LRPHWULF GDWD RQ 0DUPRVD DJL OLV DUH SUHVHQWHG LQ 7DEOH 0DUPRVD FLQHUHD 7KLV VSHFLHV LV RQH RI WKH ODUJHVW ZLWKLQ WKH JHQXV 1RZDN DQG 3DUDGLVR f DQG ZDV IDLUO\ FRPPRQ DW WKH 5LR 'RFH 3DUN EXW ZDV FRQVSLFXRXVO\ DEVHQW IURP ERWK )D]HQGD 0RQWHV &ODURV DQG )D]HQGD (VPHUDOGD 0RVW LQGLYLGXDOV ZHUH FDSWXUHG GXULQJ WKH FROG GU\ PRQWKV )LJXUH f ZLWK WUDSSLQJ VXFFHVV GXULQJ WKH UDLQ\ VHDVRQ EHLQJ IDLUO\ ORZ /DFWDWLQJ IHPDOHV RQ WKH RWKHU KDQG ZHUH RQO\ WUDSSHG GXULQJ WKH UDLQ\ VHDVRQ LQGLFDWLQJ WKDW WKH KLJK WUDSSLQJ VXFFHVV RI WKH IROORZLQJ PRQWKV UHIOHFWHG WKH DGGLWLRQ RI UHFHQWO\ ERUQ \RXQJ LQWR WKH SRSXODWLRQ $ WRWDO RI PDOHV DQG IHPDOHV ZHUH FDXJKW WLPHV 7DEOH f PDNLQJ LW WKH VSHFLHV ZLWK WKH KLJKHVW UHFDSWXUH UDWH LQ

PAGE 40

7DEOH %LRPHWULF GDWD IRU IRXU PDOHV DQG RQH IHPDOH 0DUPRVD DJL LV :HLJKW LV JLYHQ LQ JPV DQG RWKHU ERG\ PHDVXUHPHQWV LQ PP 0$/( )(0$/( 0HDQ 6W'HY 1 0HDQ 6W'HY 1 :HLJKW %RG\ OHQJWK 7DLO OHQJWK +LQG )RRW (DU OHQJWK

PAGE 41

-XQ -XO $XJ6HS2FW1RY'HF -DQ)HE0DU $SU0D\ -XQ -XO $XJ6HS2FW G8 1XPEHU RI &DSWXUHV ,0 5DLQ\ 6HDVRQ /LPLWV )LJXUH 1XPEHU RI FDSWXUHV RI 0M FLQH UHD DFFRUGLQJ WR PRQWKO\ WUDSSLQJ SHULRG 6WUDLJKW OLQHV HQFORVH ERXQGDULHV RI UDLQ\ VHDVRQ 6HSWHPEHU WR )HEUXDU\f

PAGE 42

'LIIHUHQWLDO 7UDSSLQJ 6XFFHVV LQ bf 7HUUHVWULDO 7UDSV $UERUHDO 7UDSV )LJXUH 'LIIHUHQWLDO WUDSSLQJ VXFFHVV LQ SHUFHQWDJHVf RI 0A FLQHUHD LQ DUERUHDO DQG WHUUHVWULDO WUDSV

PAGE 43

WKLV VWXG\ b IRU PDOHV DQG b IRU IHPDOHVf :KLOH VH[ UDWLR IRU ILUVW FDSWXUHV ZDV WRWDO FDSWXUHV DSSUR[LPDWHG D UDWLR 7KLV PLJKW LQGLFDWH WKDW IHPDOHV DUH FDSWXUHG PRUH IUHTXHQWO\ WKDQ PDOHV ZKLFK PD\ EH GXH WR WKH IDFW WKDW PDOHV DUH PRUH WUDQVLHQW WKDQ IHPDOHV FKLVTXDUH GI Sf DQG DYHUDJHG RQO\ DERXW PRQWKV LQ WUDSOLQHV )HPDOHV RQ WKH RWKHU KDQG SHUVLVWHG LQ WKH DUHDV IRU DQ DYHUDJH RI PRQWKV 7KH ORQJHVW WHQDQF\ LQ WUDSOLQHV ZDV DOVR E\ D IHPDOH WKDW ZDV UHFRUGHG SUHVHQW IRU PRQWKV ,Q DGGLWLRQ PDOHV DOVR WUDYHOOHG IDUWKHU EHWZHHQ VXFFHVVLYH FDSWXUHV WKDQ IHPDOHV PDOHV PHWHUV PD[LPXP PHWHUV IHPDOHV PHWHUV PD[LPXP PHWHUVf ZKLFK DOVR VXSSRUWV WKH FRQWHQWLRQ WKDW WUDQVLHQW PDOHV DUH D IUHTXHQW RFFXUUHQFH 2Q DYHUDJH DGXOW PDOHV ZHUH IRXQG WR EH VOLJKWO\ KHDYLHU WKDQ IHPDOHV +RZHYHU WKH VSHFLHV GLG QRW VKRZ VH[XDO GLPRUSKLVP IRU DQ\ ELRPHWULF SDUDPHWHU PHDVXUHG 7DEOH f $OWKRXJK WUDSSHG IUHTXHQWO\ RQ WKH JURXQG 0 FLQHUHD DSSHDUHG WR EH SULPDULO\ DUERUHDO HVSHFLDOO\ WKH IHPDOHV )LJXUH f 7KH EHKDYLRU XSRQ UHOHDVH DOVR UHYHDOHG WKDW ZKLOH b RI WKH PDOHV UHPDLQHG RQ WKH JURXQG RQO\ b RI WKH IHPDOHV GLVSOD\HG D VLPLODU EHKDYLRU 7HUERUJK HW DO f OLVW 0AB FLQHUHD DV EHLQJ DEOH WR H[SORLW VHYHUDO IRUHVW VWUDWD IURP XQGHUVWRU\ WR FDQRS\ 0LOHV HW DO f GHWHUPLQHG 0AB FLQHUHD WR EH PRVWO\ DUERUHDO ZLWK DOO QHVWV DOVR ORFDWHG DERYH JURXQG

PAGE 44

7DEOH %LRPHWULF GDWD IRU DGXOW PDOH DQG IHPDOH 0DUPRVD FLQHUHD :HLJKW LV JLYHQ LQ JPV DQG RWKHU ERG\ PHDVXUHPHQWV LQ PP 3 UHIHUV WR SYDOXH DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK DQDO\VLV RI YDULDQFH IRU VH[XDO GLPRUSKLVP QV S! r S rr S rrr Sf 0$/( )(0$/( 0HDQ 6W'HY 1 0HDQ 6W'HY 1 3 :HLJKW QV %RG\ OHQJWK Q V 7DLO OHQJWK QV +LQG )RRW QV (DU OHQJWK QV

PAGE 45

)UHTXHQF\ )LJXUH )UHTXHQF\ RI LQGLYLGXDOV RI LQFDQD SHUVLVWLQJ ZLWKLQ WUDSOLQHV

PAGE 46

0DUPRVD LQFDQD 7KLV ZDV WKH VHFRQG PRVW IUHTXHQWO\ FDXJKW VSHFLHV LQ WKLV VWXG\ ,W ZDV SUHVHQW LQ DOO VL[ IRUHVW SORWV VDPSOHG (LJKW\ PDOHV DQG IHPDOHV ZHUH FDSWXUHG D WRWDO RI WLPHV 7KUHH LQGLYLGXDOV HVFDSHG EHIRUH WKHLU VH[ FRXOG EH GHWHUPLQHG 6H[ UDWLR IRU ILUVW FDSWXUHV ZDV DQG IRU DOO FDSWXUHV 0DOHV DOVR SHUVLVWHG RQ WKH WUDSOLQHV PRUH WKDQ IHPDOHV FKLVTXDUH GI Sf RQ DYHUDJH DQG PRQWKV UHVSHFWLYHO\ )LJXUH f 7KHUHIRUH LQ FRQWUDVW ZLWK 0 FLQHUHD PDOH 0 LQFDQD DSSHDU WR EH PRUH VHGHQWDU\ WKDQ IHPDOHV 0A LQFDQD PDOHV WUDYHOOHG DQ DYHUDJH RI PHWHUV EHWZHHQ VXFFHVVLYH FDSWXUHV PD[LPXP PHWHUVf ZKLOH WKH RQO\ IHPDOH UHFDSWXUHG LQ WKH VDPH WUDSSLQJ VHVVLRQ WUDYHOOHG PHWHUV 0DUPRVD LQFDQD DGXOW PDOHV ZHUH VH[XDOO\ GLPRUSKLF IRU DOO PRUSKRPHWULF FKDUDFWHUV PHDVXUHG ZLWK PDOHV EHLQJ RQ DYHUDJH b KHDYLHU WKDQ DGXOW IHPDOHV 7DEOH f %RG\ OHQJWK RI PDOHV ZDV DOVR b ODUJHU WKDQ IRU IHPDOHV $GXOW IHPDOHV DOVR ODFN WKH VWHUQDO JODQG ZKLFK LV IXQFWLRQDO LQ PDOHV GXULQJ WKH EUHHGLQJ VHDVRQ $V ZLWK ./ FLQHUHD WUDSSLQJ VXFFHVV LQFUHDVHG PDUNHGO\ ZLWK WKH HQG RI WKH UDLQ\ VHDVRQ )LJXUH f 7KLV SRSXODWLRQ JURZWK LV DFFRXQWHG IRU E\ WKH LQFUHDVH LQ WKH QXPEHU RI MXYHQLOHV WUDSSHG )LJXUH f 7KH K\SRWKHVLV WKDW LQFUHDVHG WUDSSLQJ VXFFHVV LV GXH WR MXYHQLOH UHFUXLWPHQW LV IXUWKHU VXSSRUWHG E\ WKH REVHUYDWLRQ

PAGE 47

7DEOH %LRPHWULF GDWD IRU DGXOW PDOH DQG IHPDOH 0DUPRVD LQFDQD :HLJKW LV JLYHQ LQ JPV DQG RWKHU ERG\ PHDVXUHPHQWV LQ PP 3 UHIHUV WR SYDOXH DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK DQDO\VLV RI YDULDQFH IRU VH[XDO GLPRUSKLVP QV S!r S rr S rrr Sf 0$/( )(0$/( 0HDQ 6W'HY 1 0HDQ 6W'HY 1 :HLJKW rr %RG\ OHQJWK rrr 7DLO OHQJWK +LQG )RRW Wr (DU OHQJWK rrr

PAGE 48

-XQ -XO $XJ6HS2FW1RY'HF -DQ)HE0DU $SU0D\ -XQ -XO $XJ6HS2FW 1XPEHU RI &DSWXUHV 5DLQ\ 6HDVRQ /LPLWV )LJXUH 1XPEHU RI FDSWXUHV RI 0M LQFDQD DFFRUGLQJ WR PRQWKO\ WUDSSLQJ SHULRG 6WUDLJKW OLQHV HQFORVH ERXQGDULHV RI UDLQ\ VHDVRQ 6HSWHPEHU WR )HEUXDU\f

PAGE 49

c 1XPEHU RI -XYHQLOHV ‘V 0HDQ 5DLQIDOO FPf )LJXUH 1XPEHU RI MXYHQLOHV RI 0A ,QFDQD DFFRUGLQJ WR PRQWKO\ WUDSSLQJ SHULRG /LQH UHSUHVHQWV PHDQ GDOO\ UDLQIDOO PPf

PAGE 50

.0@ %UHHGLQJ 0DOHV G+ %UHHGLQJ )HPDOHV f§ 0HDQ 5DLQIDOO FPf )LJXUH 1XPEHU RI EUHHGLQJ PDOHV DQG IHPDOHV RI LQFDQD DFFRUGLQJ WR PRQWKO\ WUDSSLQJ SHULRG /LQH UHSUHVHQWV PHDQ GDLO\ UDLQIDOO PPf

PAGE 51

'LIIHUHQWLDO 7UDSSLQJ 6XFFHVV LQ bf 7HUUHVWULDO 7UDSV $UERUHDO 7UDSV )LJXUH 'LIIHUHQWLDO WUDSSLQJ VXFFHVV Q SHUFHQWDJHVf RI 0A LQFDQD LQ DUERUHDO DQG WHUUHVWULDO WUDSV

PAGE 52

WKDW WKH RFFXUUHQFH RI EUHHGLQJ PDOHV DQG HVSHFLDOO\ EUHHGLQJ IHPDOHV LV WLJKWO\ WLHG WR PLG WR ODWH UDLQ\ VHDVRQ )LJXUH f 0DUPRVD LQFDQD FDQ EH FKDUDFWHUL]HG DV D VFDQVRULDO VSHFLHV DV LWV XVH RI DUERUHDO DQG WHUUHVWULDO WUDSV ZDV DSSUR[LPDWHO\ HYHQO\ VSOLW )LJXUH f 7KH VDPH UHVXOW ZDV REWDLQHG XVLQJ EHKDYLRU XSRQ UHOHDVH DV PHDVXUH RI GLIIHUHQWLDO VXEVWUDWH XVH $SSUR[LPDWHO\ b RI LQGLYLGXDOV UHOHDVHG FOLPEHG WUHHV RU YLQHV ZKLOH b UHPDLQHG RQ WKH JURXQG 7KHUH ZHUH QR VWDWLVWLFDO GLIIHUHQFHV LQ VXEVWUDWH XVH EHWZHHQ PDOHV DQG IHPDOHV FKL VTXDUH S!f 0DUPRVD LQFDQD DSSHDUV KLJKO\ LQVHFWLYRURXV 7KUHH VWRPDFKV DQDO\]HG LQ WKLV VWXG\ FRQWDLQHG RQO\ LQVHFWV PRVWO\ EHORQJLQJ WR WKH RUGHUV &ROHSWHUD DQG 2UWKRSWHUD 1RZDN DQG 3DUDGLVR f UHSRUWHG WKDW PRVW PHPEHUV RI WKH JHQXV 0DUPRVD DUH LQVHFW DQG IUXLW HDWHUV DOWKRXJK YHUWHEUDWHV DUH DOVR RFFDVLRQDOO\ FRQVXPHG 0DUPRVD PLFURWDUVXV 'XULQJ WKH ODVW PRQWK RI WKH VXUYH\ 2FWREHU RI DQ DGXOW PDOH RI WKLV VSHFLHV ZDV FDXJKW LQ DQ DUERUHDO WUDS LQ WKH VHFRQGDU\ IRUHVW RI WKH 5LR 'RFH 3DUN 7KH VSHFLHV ZDV SUHYLRXVO\ GHVFULEHG DV EHLQJ TXLWH DEXQGDQW LQ ERWK VHFRQGDU\ DQG SULPDU\ IRUHVWV RI WKH $WODQWLF IRUHVW UHJLRQ 'DYLV f 0DUPRVD PLFURWDUVXV LV VLPLODU LQ PRUSKRORJ\ WR 0DUPRVD DJLOLV DQG LW LV XVXDOO\ GLIILFXOW WR GLVWLQJXLVK WKHP 0RUSKRPHWULF GDWD IURP WKLV LQGLYLGXDO DUH DV IROORZV ZHLJKW

PAGE 53

JUDPV ERG\ OHQJWK PLOOLPHWHUV WDLO OHQJWK PLOOLPHWHUV HDU OHQJWK PLOOLPHWHUV KLQG IRRW PLOOLPHWHUV 0HWDFKL UXV QXGLFDXGDWXV 7KLV UHODWLYHO\ ODUJHERGLHG WHUUHVWULDO GLGHOSKLG ZDV WKH WKLUG PRVW FRPPRQ PDUVXSLDO VSHFLHV WUDSSHG LQ WKLV VWXG\ 7DEOH f 7KH EURZQ IRXUH\HG RSRVVXP ZDV SUHVHQW LQ DOO VL[ IRUHVW SORWV VXUYH\HG $ WRWDO RI PDOHV DQG IHPDOHV ZHUH FDXJKW UHVSHFWLYHO\ DQG WLPHV 7KH VH[ UDWLR IRU ILUVW FDSWXUHV ZDV HTXDO WR WKDW RI UHFDSWXUHV f $GXOW PDOHV ZHUH RQ DYHUDJH ODUJHU WKDQ IHPDOHV ZLWK PRVW ELRPHWULF SDUDPHWHUV PHDVXUHG SURYLQJ VH[XDOO\ GLPRUSKLF 7DEOH f 0DOHV ZHUH RQ DYHUDJH KHDYLHU WKDQ DGXOW IHPDOHV (YHQ WKRXJK WKH VSHFLHV ZDV UHODWLYHO\ FRPPRQ WKURXJKRXW WKH \HDU D WUDSSLQJ VXFFHVV SHDN ZDV REVHUYHG IROORZLQJ WKH UDLQ\ VHDVRQ )LJXUH f 7KLV SHDN SUREDEO\ FRLQFLGHV ZLWK WKH RQVHW RI EUHHGLQJ LQ PLG UDLQ\ VHDVRQ DQG WKH EHJLQQLQJ RI WKH GU\ PRQWKV %RWK ODFWDWLQJ IHPDOHV DQG PDOHV ZLWK IXQFWLRQDO DEGRPLQDO JODQGV ZHUH IUHTXHQWO\ FDXJKW DW WKLV WLPH )LJXUH f 0HWDFKL UXV QXGLFDXGDWXV PD\ DOVR EH DEOH WR SURGXFH D VHFRQG OLWWHU LQ WKH VDPH \HDU 2QH IHPDOH KDG D OLWWHU LQ 0DUFK DQG WKH VHFRQG LQ 2FWREHU 7KH QXPEHU RI SRXFK \RXQJ UDQJHG IURP WR ZLWK DQ DYHUDJH RI \RXQJ 7DEOH f )RU WKH WZR IHPDOHV LQ ZKLFK

PAGE 54

7DEOH %LRPHWULF GDWD IRU DGXOW PDOH DQG IHPDOH 0HWDFKL UXV QXGLFDXGDWXV :HLJKW LV JLYHQ LQ JPV DQG RWKHU ERG\ PHDVXUHPHQWV LQ PP 3 UHIHUV WR SYDOXH DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK DQDO\VLV RI YDULDQFH IRU VH[XDO GLPRUSKLVP QV S! r S rr S rrr Sf 0$/( )(0$/( 0HDQ 6W'HY 1 0HDQ 6W'HY 1 3 :HLJKW rrr %RG\ OHQJWK rr 7DLO OHQJWK QV +LQG )RRW r (DU OHQJWK QV

PAGE 55

-XQ -XO $XJ6HS2FW1RY'HF-DQ)HE0DU $SU0D\-XQ -XO $XJ6HS2FW O 1XPEHU RI &DSWXUHV +‹ 5DLQ\ 6HDVRQ /LPLWV )LJXUH 1XPEHU RI FDSWXUHV RI QXGLFDXGDWXV DFFRUGLQJ WR PRQWKO\ WUDSSLQJ SHULRG 6WUDLJKW OLQHV HQFORVH ERXQGDULHV RI UDLQ\ VHDVRQ 6HSWHPEHU WR )HEUXDU\f

PAGE 56

>60, %UHHGLQJ 0DOHV G8 %UHHGLQJ )HPDOHV V0HDQ 5DPWDLL FPf )LJXUH 1XPEHU RI EUHHGLQJ PDOHV DQG IHPDOHV RI 0cB QXGLFDXGDWXV DFFRUGLQJ WR WUDSSLQJ SHULRG /LQH UHSUHVHQWV PHDQ GDLO\ UDLQIDOO PPf

PAGE 57

7DEOH /LWWHU VL]HV DQG VH[ UDWLRV RI 0HWDFKL UXV QXGLFDXGDWXV SRXFK \RXQJ ,' 1XPEHU 1XPEHU )HPDOH RI
PAGE 58

\RXQJ ZHUH ROG HQRXJK WR EH VH[HG WKHUH ZDV D ELDVHG VH[ UDWLR WRZDUGV IHPDOHV 1RZDN DQG 3DUDGLVR f UHJDUG EURZQ IRXUH\HG RSRVVXPV DV EHLQJ DUERUHDO EXW WKH VSHFLHV ZDV RQO\ RQFH LQ FDSWXUHV FDXJKW LQ DQ DUERUHDO WUDS )XUWKHUPRUH RQO\ RQFH ZDV DQ LQGLYLGXDO REVHUYHG WR XVH DHULDO VXEVWUDWH XSRQ EHLQJ UHOHDVHG ,Q IDFW WKH ODUJH DQG QRQJUDVSDEOH KLQG IHHW DQG FOXPV\ EHKDYLRU RQ DERYH JURXQG VXSSRUW GR VXJJHVW D FRPSOHWH WHUUHVWULDO OLIH IRU WKH VSHFLHV 8VLQJ D VSRROOLQH GHYLFH 0LOHV HW DO f DOVR IRXQG 0HWDFKL UXV QXGLFDXGDWXV WR EH FRPSOHWHO\ WHUUHVWULDO 7HUERUJK HW DO f DOVR UHJDUG JUD\ IRXUH\HG RSRVVXPV DV D VSHFLHV FRQILQHG WR WKH JURXQG 0DOH DQG IHPDOH EURZQ IRXUH\HG RSRVVXPV GLG QRW GLIIHU LQ SHUVLVWHQFH WLPHV LQ WUDSOLQHV ZLWK ERWK VH[ FODVVHV DYHUDJLQJ PRQWKV 7ZR PDOHV DQG WZR IHPDOHV ZHUH DOVR UHFRUGHG LQ WUDSOLQHV RYHU D QLQH PRQWK SHULRG )LJXUH f 'LVWDQFHV WUDYHOOHG EHWZHHQ VXFFHVVLYH WUDSSLQJ ZHUH DPRQJ WKH ORZHVW IRU PDUVXSLDOV DYHUDJLQJ PHWHUV PD[LPXP PHWHUV 1 f IRU PDOHV DQG PHWHUV PD[LPXP PHWHUV 1 f IRU IHPDOHV 0RQRGHOSKLV DPHULFDQD 6KRUWWDLOHG RSRVVXPV KDYH D IDLUO\ ZLGH GLVWULEXWLRQ LQ %UD]LO 6WUHLOHLQ f 2QO\ RQH IHPDOH ZDV FDXJKW LQ DQ DX[LOLDU\ OLQH HVWDEOLVKHG LQ WKH SULPDU\ IRUHVW DW )D]HQGD 0RQWHV &ODURV IRU WKH SXUSRVH RI FROOHFWLQJ YRXFKHU

PAGE 59

)UHTXHQF\ 0DOHV f§ )HPDOHV )LJXUH )UHTXHQF\ RI LQGLYLGXDOV RI QXGLFDXGDWXV SHUVLVWLQJ ZLWKLQ WUDSOLQHV

PAGE 60

VSHFLPHQV 7KH FDSWXUH VLWH GLG QRW GLIIHU SK\VLRJQRPLFDOO\ IURP WKH UHJXODU WUDSOLQHV DQG WKHUHIRUH WKH VSHFLHV PLJKW DOVR RFFXU FRQVLVWHQWO\ DW WKLV VLWH +RZHYHU LW LV IHOW WKDW WUDSSLQJ PHWKRGV ZHUH QRW SURSHU WR DGHTXDWHO\ UHSUHVHQW WKH VSHFLHV ,WV VPDOO ERG\ VL]H DQG IRUDJLQJ KDELWV RQ WKH IRUHVW OLWWHU PD\ KDYH DFFRXQWHG IRU LWV ORZ UHSUHVHQWDWLRQ LQ WKH VDPSOH 'DYLV f 7KH ELRPHWULF GDWD RQ WKLV LQGLYLGXDO DUH DV IROORZV ZHLJKW JUDPV ERG\ OHQJWK PLOOLPHWHUV WDLO OHQJWK PLOOLPHWHUV KLQGIRRW PLOOLPHWHUV HDU OHQJWK PLOOLPHWHUV &RPSDULVRQV ZLWK GDWD SURYLGHG E\ 1RZDN DQG 3DUDGLVR f LQGLFDWH WKDW WKLV LQGLYLGXDO ZDV SUREDEO\ D MXYHQLOH 3KLODQGHU RSRVVXP *UD\ IRXUH\HG RSRVVXPV ZHUH WUDSSHG LQ DOO IRUHVW SORWV H[FHSW DW WKH 5LR 'RFH 3DUN )RXUWHHQ LQGLYLGXDOV ZHUH FDXJKW GXULQJ WKH FRXUVH RI WKLV VWXG\ 7KH RFFXUUHQFH RI WKLV ODUJH GLGHOSKOG PDUVXSLDO LV DSSDUHQWO\ WLHG WR WKH SUHVHQFH RI VWDQGLQJ RU UXQQLQJ ZDWHU 'DYLV +DQGOH\ 1RZDN DQG 3DUDGLVR $OKR HW DO f $V RQO\ D IHZ WUDQVHFWV RFFXUUHG FORVH WR VWUHDPV WKLV PD\ H[SODLQ WKH ORZ WUDSSLQJ VXFFHVV IRU WKLV VSHFLHV $V ZLWK RWKHU VSHFLHV WUDSSLQJ VXFFHVV ZDV PXFK KLJKHU GXULQJ WKH GU\ VHDVRQ )LJXUH f :KLOH RQO\ WKUHH LQGLYLGXDO IHPDOHV ZHUH UHFRUGHG WKHVH KDG D PXFK KLJKHU UHFDSWXUH UDWH PDOHV ZHUH FDXJKW WLPHV ZKLOH IHPDOHV ZHUH FDSWXUHG LQ GLIIHUHQW RFFDVLRQV 7KH ORQJHVW

PAGE 61

&8@ 1XPEHU RI &DSWXUHV ++ 5DLQ\ 6HDVRQ /LPLWV )LJXUH 1XPEHU RI FDSWXUHV RI 3A RSRVVXP DFFRUGLQJ WR PRQWKO\ WUDSSLQJ SHULRG 6WUDLJKW OLQH HQFORVHV ERXQGDULHV RI UDLQ\ VHDVRQ 6HSWHPEHU WR )HEUXDU\f

PAGE 62

SHUVLVWHQFH WLPHV RQ WKH WUDSOLQHV ZHUH DQG PRQWKV DFKLHYHG E\ WZR DGXOW IHPDOHV $OO IHPDOHV FDXJKW ZHUH ODFWDWLQJ DQG WZR VWLOO KDG SRXFK \RXQJ 1RZDN DQG 3DUDGLVR f EDVHG RQ VHYHUDO VWXGLHV FRQFOXGHG WKDW 3AB RSRVVXP EUHHGV DVHDVRQDOO\ +RZHYHU WKH VPDOO VDPSOH VL]H RI WKH SUHVHQW VWXG\ GRHV QRW DOORZ DQ\ FRQFOXVLRQV DV WR VHDVRQDOLW\ RI UHSURGXFWLRQ 2QH IHPDOH KDG SRXFK \RXQJ LQ )HEUXDU\ ZKLOH WKH UHPDLQLQJ ZHUH FDXJKW ODFWDWLQJ LQ $XJXVW DQG 6HSWHPEHU (DFK KDG \RXQJ DWWDFKHG WR WKH QLSSOHV 7KH ILJXUH JLYHQ E\ 'DYLV f LQ WKH $WODQWLF IRUHVW ZDV DQ DYHUDJH QXPEHU RI SRXFK \RXQJ RI ZLWK D PD[LPXP RI VHYHQ ZKLOH OLWWHU VL]HV LQ 1LFDUDJXD ZHUH IRXQG WR EH VOLJKWO\ ODUJHU 3KLOOLSV DQG -RQHV f )RU RQH OLWWHU ZKLFK VH[ FRXOG EH GHWHUPLQHG WKHUH ZHUH IRXU IHPDOH DQG RQH PDOH \RXQJ (YHQ WKRXJK WKH VPDOO VDPSOH VL]H SUHFOXGHG VWDWLVWLFDO DQDO\VLV RI VH[XDO GLPRUSKLVP DGXOW PDOHV ZHUH RQ DYHUDJH RYHU b KHDYLHU WKDQ IHPDOHV 7DEOH f $V QRWLFHG E\ 1RZDN DQG 3DUDGLVR f LQ WKLV VWXG\ WKH VSHFLHV DOVR SURYHG WR EH SULPDULO\ WHUUHVWULDO ZLWK RQO\ b RI FDSWXUHV LQ DUERUHDO WUDSV DQG b RI LQGLYLGXDOV FOLPELQJ WUHHV DIWHU EHLQJ UHOHDVHG %DVHG RQ ILHOG REVHUYDWLRQV KRZHYHU LW LV IHOW WKDW JUD\ IRXUH\HG RSRVVXPV DUH DEOH LI QHHGHG WR HIILFLHQWO\ PDNH XVH RI DUERUHDO VXEVWUDWH 7KH VDPH ZDV VXJJHVWHG E\ 0LOHV HW DO f DQG &UHVSR f

PAGE 63

7DEOH %LRPHWULF GDWD IRU VHYHQ PDOHV DQG WKUHH IHPDOHV RI JUD\ IRXUH\HG RSRVVXP 3KLODQGHU RSRVVXP :HLJKW LV JLYHQ LQ JPV DQG RWKHU ERG\ PHDVXUHPHQWV LQ PP 0$/( )(0$/( 0HDQ 6W'HY 0HDQ 6W'HY :HLJKW %RG\ OHQJWK 7DLO OHQJWK +LQG )RRW (DU OHQJWK

PAGE 64

7DEOH %LRPHWULF GDWD IRU DGXOW $NRGRQ FXUVRU :HLJKW LV JLYHQ LQ JPV DQG RWKHU ERG\ PHDVXUHPHQWV LQ PP 3 UHIHUV WR S YDOXH DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK DQDO\VLV RI YDULDQFH IRU VH[XDO GLPRUSKLVP QV S! r S rr S rrr Sf 0$/( )(0$/( 0HDQ 6W'HY 1 0HDQ 6W'HY 1 3 :HLJKW Q V %RG\ OHQJWK Q V 7DLO OHQJWK QV +LQG )RRW QV (DU OHQJWK QV

PAGE 65

$EUDZD\RP\V UXVFKL 7KLV UDUH PRQRW\SLF PXULG URGHQW HQGHPLF WR WKH $WODQWLF IRUHVW RI HDVWHUQ %UD]LO LV RQO\ NQRZQ WKURXJK LWV W\SH VSHFLPHQ FROOHFWHG LQ WKH VWDWH RI (VSLULWR 6DQWR 1RZDN DQG 3DUDGLVR f $ VLQJOH DGXOW PDOH ZLWK GHVFHQGHG WHVWHV ZDV FROOHFWHG DW WKH VHFRQGDU\ IRUHVW RI WKH 5LR 'RFH 6WDWH 3DUN LQ -DQXDU\ RI IRU ZKLFK PHDVXUHPHQWV DUH DV IROORZV ZHLJKW JUDPV ERG\ PLOOLPHWHUV WDLO OHQJWK PLOOLPHWHUV KLQG IRRW PLOOLPHWHUV HDU OHQJWK PLOOLPHWHUV $NRGRQ FXUVRU 7KH JHQXV $NRGRQ FRPSULVHV RYHU VSHFLHV DQG $ FXUVRU LV DPRQJ WKH ODUJHVW 6H[XDO GLPRUSKLVP LV ODFNLQJ LQ $AB FXUVRU 7DEOH f DOWKRXJK PDOHV ZHLJKWHG PRUH WKDQ IHPDOHV LQ DQRWKHU VWXG\ 1LWLNPDQ DQG 0DUHV f 7KLV VSHFLHV RFFXUUHG IUHTXHQWO\ LQ WKH 5LR 'RFH 3DUN VHFRQGDU\ IRUHVW EXW ZDV DOVR RFFDVLRQDOO\ FDXJKW DW RWKHU VLWHV HVSHFLDOO\ LQ VRPH DX[LOLDU\ OLQHV ZKLFK ZHUH ORFDWHG LQ KXPLG JUDVVODQGV :LWKLQ WKH WUDSOLQHV D WRWDO RI LQGLYLGXDOV ZHUH FDXJKW WLPHV 7DEOH f RI ZKLFK ZHUH WUDSSHG DW WKH 5LR 'RFH 3DUN 6H[ UDWLRV IRU ILUVW FDSWXUHV DQG DOO FDSWXUHV ZHUH UHVSHFWLYHO\ DQG $NRGRQ FXUVRU ZDV SUHYLRXVO\ GHVFULEHG DV EHLQJ FRPSOHWHO\ WHUUHVWULDO &UHVSR $OKR HW D 1LWLNPDQ DQG 0DUHV f +RZHYHU WKH VSHFLHV GHPRQVWUDWHG VFDQVRULDO DELOLW\ LQ WKLV VWXG\ ZLWK DSSUR[LPDWHO\ RQHWKLUG RI WUDSSLQJ VXFFHVV EHLQJ REWDLQHG DW DUERUHDO WUDSV

PAGE 66

$ GLVWLQFW SHDN LQ SRSXODWLRQ GHQVLW\ ZDV IRXQG EHWZHHQ 0D\ DQG -XO\ 9HU\ IHZ LQGLYLGXDOV ZHUH UHFRUGHG GXULQJ WKH UDLQ\ VHDVRQ )LJXUH f 7KLV ZDV DWWULEXWHG WR UHFUXLWPHQW RI \RXQJ LQWR WKH SRSXODWLRQ MXVW DW WKH HQG RI WKH ZHW DQG LQ WKH GU\ VHDVRQ 7KLV FRQFOXVLRQ LV VXSSRUWHG E\ WKH REVHUYDWLRQ WKDW WKH QXPEHU RI PDOHV ZLWK GHVFHQGHG WHVWHV FORVHO\ IROORZV WKDW RI WUDSSLQJ VXFFHVV DQG FRLQFLGHV ZLWK PLG GU\ VHDVRQ )LJXUH f *HVWDWLRQ DQG VXEVHTXHQW ZHDQLQJ DUH FORVH WR ILYH ZHHNV 1RZDN DQG 3DUDGLVR f DQG WKH LQIOXHQFH RI UHSURGXFWLRQ DFWLYLW\ RQ SRSXODWLRQ GHQVLW\ ZDV UHDGLO\ QRWLFHDEOH LQ WHUPV RI LQFUHDVHG WUDSSLQJ VXFFHVV $NRGRQ FXUVRU DSSHDUV WR EH SULPDULO\ LQVHFWLYRURXV ,QGLYLGXDOV WUDSSHG LQ ERWK JUDVVODQGV DQG IRUHVWV WXUQHG RXW KLJK DPRXQWV RI LQVHFWV LQ WKHLU VWRPDFKV ZKLFK SRVVLEO\ LQGLFDWH WKDW WKH VSHFLHV PDNHV XVH RI LQVHFWV LQ WKHLU GLHWV LQ DOO KDELWDWV 7KH VSHFLHV DOVR PDNHV XVH RI VHHGV IUXLWV DQG YHJHWDWLYH SDUWV HVSHFLDOO\ WKRVH RI WKH *UDPLQDH 7DEOH f $NRGRQ FXUVRU WXUQRYHU UDWHV DSSHDU YHU\ KLJK ZLWK b RI LQGLYLGXDOV RQO\ EHLQJ UHFRUGHG GXULQJ RQH WUDSSLQJ VHVVLRQ 0D[LPXP SHUVLVWHQFH ZDV DFKLHYHG E\ WZR LQGLYLGXDOV EXW IRU RQO\ WKUHH DQG IRXU PRQWKV 7KH WZR LQGLYLGXDOV IRU ZKLFK GDWD RQ WUDYHO GLVWDQFHV ZHUH DYDLODEOH PRYHG DQG PHWHUV EHWZHHQ VXFFHVVLYH FDSWXUHV

PAGE 67

-XQ -XO $XJ6HS2FW1RY'HF-DQ)HE0DU $SU0D\-XQ -XO $XJ6HS2FW *+ 1XPEHU RI &DSWXUHV 5DLQ\ 6HDVRQ /LPLWV )LJXUH 1XPEHU RI FDSWXUHV RI $BcB FXUVRU DFFRUGLQJ WR PRQWKO\ WUDSSLQJ SHULRG 6WUDLJKW OLQH HQFORVHV ERXQGDULHV RI UDLQ\ VHDVRQ 6HSWHPEHU WR )HEUXDU\f

PAGE 68

-XQ -XO $XJ6HS2FW 1RY'HF -DQ )HE 0DU $SU 0D\ -XQ -XO $XJ6HS2FW %UHHGLQJ 0DOHV a%a 0HDQ 5DLQIDOO FPf )LJXUH 1XPEHU RI PDOHV RI FXUVRU ZLWK GHVFHQGHG WHVWHV DFFRUGLQJ WR WUDSSLQJ SHULRG /LQH UHSUHVHQWV PHDQ GDLO\ UDLQIDOO PPf

PAGE 69

7DEOH 6WRPDFK FRQWHQWV RI IRXU $NRGRQ FXUVRU ,' 1XPEHU 3(5&(17$*( 2) ,QVHFWV /HDI\ 0DWHULDO 6HHGV )UXLWV &(0r 3rr 3r rrr 3r rrr r )RUHVW WUDSOLQHV rr *UDVVODQGV rrr &ROHSWHUD DQG DQWV

PAGE 70

(FKYPYV VS 0HPEHUV RI WKLV JHQXV DUH HQWLUHO\ DUERUHDO +HUVKNRYLW] f 7KLV PD\ H[SODLQ WKH ORZ VXFFHVV LQ UHFRUGLQJ WKLV VSHFLHV LQ WKH IRUHVWV VDPSOHG ,W LV SRVVLEOH WKDW LW SUHIHUHQWLDOO\ RFFXSLHV KLJKHU FDQRS\ VWUDWD 'DYLV f QHYHU WUDSSHG (FKYPYV EHORZ PHWHUV ZKLOH 0LOHV HW DO f IRXQG QHVWV RI (FK\P\V FKU\VXUXV LQ WUHH FDYLWLHV ORFDWHG DW WKH FDQRS\ OHYHO 2QO\ RQH DGXOW PDOH ZDV FDXJKW RQ WKH SULPDU\ IRUHVW RI )D]HQGD 0RQWHV &ODURV LQ -XO\ RI LQ DQ DUERUHDO WUDS 7KH YRXFKHU VSHFLPHQ FRXOG QRW \HW EH LGHQWLILHG EH\RQG JHQXV EXW PD\ SRVVLEO\ HLWKHU EH (FK\P\V EUDVLOLHQVLV VHQVX 0RRMHQ f RU D VSHFLHV ZKLFK KDV QRW EHHQ GHVFULEHG / (PPRQV SHUV FRPP f 7KLV VSHFLPHQ KDG WKH IROORZLQJ PHDVXUHPHQWV ZHLJKW JUDPV ERG\ OHQJWK PLOOLPHWHUV WDLO OHQJWK PLOOLPHWHUV KLQG IRRW PLOOLPHWHUV HDU OHQJWK PLOOLPHWHUV 1HFWRP\V VTXDPLSHV 7KLV VHPLDTXDWLF UDW ZDV RFFDVLRQDOO\ WUDSSHG LQ WKH YLFLQLWLHV RI VPDOO VWUHDPV RU IORRGHG DUHDV ZLWKLQ IRUHVWV $OKR HW DO f REWDLQHG b RI DOO WKH FDSWXUHV RI 1HFWRP\V VTXDPLSHV LQ WKH &HUUDGR UHJLRQ RQ IORRGHG DUHDV $ IHZ LQGLYLGXDOV LQ WKH SUHVHQW VWXG\ ZHUH IRXQG RYHU PHWHUV IURP DQ\ VRXUFH RI ZDWHU VXJJHVWLQJ WKDW WKH VSHFLHV PD\ RFFDVLRQDOO\ H[SORLW QRQDTXDWLF KDELWDWV 7KH WKUHH VWRPDFKV DQDO\]HG FRQWDLQHG RQO\ YHJHWDWLYH PDWHULDO WZR H[FOXVLYHO\ IUXLW SXOS

PAGE 71

1HFWRPYV VTXDPLSHV LV D IDLUO\ ODUJHERGLHG URGHQW ZLWK PDOHV DWWDLQLQJ RYHU JUDPV 7DEOH f $ WRWDO RI HLJKW PDOHV DQG RQH IHPDOH ZHUH UHFRUGHG LQ WUHH SORWV RQH DW HDFK RI WKH VWXG\ VLWHV $QRWKHU LQGLYLGXDO HVFDSHG EHIRUH VH[ FRXOG EH GHWHUPLQHG $OO EXW RQH LQGLYLGXDO ZDV FDXJKW GXULQJ WKH PLGGU\ VHDVRQ LH EHWZHHQ 0D\ DQG $XJXVW $OWKRXJK DGDSWHG IRU VHPDTXDWF OLIH VTXDPLSHV ZHUH WUDSSHG b RI WKH WLPHV LQ DUERUHDO WUDSV 1HVWV ZKLFK ZHUH DVVXPHG WR EHORQJ WR 1BA VTXDPLSHV ZHUH IRXQG RQH PHWHU DERYH JURXQG ,QGLYLGXDOV ZHUH DOVR FDSWXUHG DW VWDWLRQV DZD\ IURP ZDWHU VRXUFHV 7ZR PDOHV SHUVLVWHG LQ WKH DUHDV IRU WKUHH DQG IRXU PRQWKV UHVSHFWLYHO\ 2UY]RP\V FDSLWR $ ZLGHVSUHDG KDELWDW JHQHUDOLVW WKLV URGHQW LV H[WHQVLYHO\ GLVWULEXWHG LQ 6RXWK $PHULFD +DQGOH\ f ,W LV SRVVLEO\ PRVWO\ WHUUHVWULDO DQG LQ WKH &HUUDGR UHJLRQ ZDV IRXQG PRUH FRPPRQO\ DW GHQVH IRUHVWV $OKR HW DO 1LWLNPDQ DQG 0DUHV f +RZHYHU LW ZDV D UDUH VSHFLHV LQ WKH IRUHVWV VDPSOHG LQ WKLV VWXG\ DQG ZDV UHSUHVHQWHG E\ RQO\ RQH PDOH DQG RQH IHPDOH DW WKH 5LR 'RFH 3DUN ERWK FDXJKW LQ 6HSWHPEHU RI $OO FDSWXUHV ZHUH RQ JURXQG WUDSV 7KH PHDVXUHPHQWV RI WKHVH LQGLYLGXDOV DUH UHVSHFWLYHO\ ZHLJKW DQG JUDPV ERG\OHQJWK DQG PLOOLPHWHUV WDLO OHQJWK DQG PLOOLPHWHUV KLQG IRRW DQG PLOOLPHWHUV HDU OHQJWK DQG PLOOLPHWHUV

PAGE 72

7DEOH %LRPHWULF GDWD IRU ILYH PDOHV DQG RQH IHPDOH 1HFWRPYV VTXDPLSHV :HLJKW LV JLYHQ LQ JPV DQG RWKHU ERG\ PHDVXUHPHQWV LQ PP 0$/( )(0$/( 0HDQ 6W'HY 1 0HDQ 6W'HY 1 :HLJKW %RG\ OHQJWK 7DLO OHQJWK +LQG )RRW (DU OHQJWK

PAGE 73

2U\]RPYV QL JULSHV 7KLV VPDOO FULFHWLG URGHQW FRPPRQO\ RFFXUUHG DW DX[LOLDU\ WUDSOLQHV ORFDWHG LQ JUDVVODQGV DQG LW KDV ZLGH GLVWULEXWLRQ DPRQJ &HUUDGR KDELWDWV $OKR HW DO 1LWLNPDQ DQG 0DUHV f ,W ZDV KRZHYHU UHODWLYHO\ XQFRPPRQ LQ IRUHVWV 2QO\ LQGLYLGXDOV WZR PDOHV DQG WKUHH IHPDOHV ZHUH FDXJKW LQ IRUHVW WUDSOLQHV $OO WUDSSLQJV ZHUH GRQH RQ PLG WR ODWH UDLQ\ VHDVRQ LH EHWZHHQ -DQXDU\ DQG $SULO 7ZR RI WKHVH FDSWXUHV ZHUH RQ DUERUHDO WUDSV DOWKRXJK LW LV IHOW WKDW WKH VSHFLHV LV FHUWDLQO\ PRUH WHUUHVWULDO DQGRU VFDQVRULDO DV LW ZDV DOVR REVHUYHG E\ &UHVSR f $OKR DQG 3HUHLUD f LQ &HUUDGR JDOOHU\ IRUHVWV DQG 9HLJD%RUJHDXG f LQ WKH $WODQWLF IRUHVW UHJLRQ GHWHUPLQHG WKDW 2U\]RP\V QLJULSHV HOLXUXVf PDNHV H[WHQVLYH XVH RI ORZ VKUXEV ZLWK QHVWV ORFDWHG DERXW PHWHU IURP JURXQG 6WRPDFK FRQWHQWV UHYHDOHG KLJK IUHTXHQF\ RI LQVHFWV FRPSOHPHQWHG E\ IUXLW VHHGV DQG OHDI\ PDWHULDO 7DEOH f %DUORZ LQ 'DOE\ f DQG &UHVSR f DOVR IRXQG LQVHFWV DV SDUW RI QLJULSHVf GLHW HYHQ WKRXJK LQ ORZHU SURSRUWLRQV %LRPHWULF GDWD DUH SUHVHQWHG LQ 7DEOH 5HSURGXFWLRQ RFFXUV WKURXJKRXW WKH \HDU DOEHLW LW PD\ LQFUHDVH LQ IUHTXHQF\ DW VRPH SHULRGV 7ZR IHPDOHV RQH FDXJKW LQ )HEUXDU\ DQG WKH RWKHU LQ $XJXVW ERWK KDG IHWXVHV FRLQFLGLQJ ZLWK WZR PDMRU UHSURGXFWLYH SHDNV REVHUYHG E\ 9HLJD%RUJHDXG f $ WKLUG IHPDOH WUDSSHG LQ $SULO KDG LPSODQWHG IHWXVHV

PAGE 74

7DEOH 6WRPDFK FRQWHQWV RI 2U\]RP\V QLJULSHV 3(5&(17$*( 2) ,' 1XPEHU ,QVHFWV )UXLW /HDI\ 0DWHULDO 6HHGV 3 3 &(0 &(0

PAGE 75

7DEOH %LRPHWULF GDWD IRU WZR PDOHV DQG WKUHH IHPDOHV RI 2U\]RP\V QLJULSHV :HLJKW LV JLYHQ LQ JPV DQG RWKHU ERG\ PHDVXUHPHQWV LQ PP 0$/( )(0$/( 0HDQ 6W'HY 1 0HDQ 6W'HY 1 :HLJKW %RG\ OHQJWK 7DLO OHQJWK +LQG )RRW (DU OHQJWK

PAGE 76

2UY]RPYV VXEIODYXV 2QO\ RQH IHPDOH RI WKLV RWKHUZLVH IDLUO\ FRPPRQ &HUUDGR VSHFLHV 0HOR $OKR DQG 3HUHLUD $OKR HW DO f ZDV FDXJKW LQ DQ DUERUHDO WUDS LQ WKH IRUHVW WUDSOLQHV 7KH PHDVXUHPHQWV RI WKLV LQGLYLGXDO DUH DV IROORZV ZHLJKW JUDPV ERG\ OHQJWK PLOOLPHWHUV WDLO OHQJWK PLOOLPHWHUV KLQG IRRW PLOOLPHWHUV HDU OHQJWK PLOOLPHWHUV 2U\]RP\V WULQLWDWLV FRQFRORUf 7KLV FULFHWLG ZDV WKH PRVW IUHTXHQW URGHQW IRXQG LQ WKH IRUHVWV VDPSOHG EHLQJ SUHVHQW DW DOO VLWHV ,W LV ZLGHO\ GLVWULEXWHG IURP &RVWD 5LFD WR 3DUDJXD\ 1RZDN DQG 3DUDGLVR f DQG IRXQG PRVWO\ LQ IRUHVWHG KDELWDWV $OKR DQG 3HUHLUD 1LWLNPDQ DQG 0DUHV f $ WRWDO RI LQGLYLGXDOV ZHUH FDSWXUHG WLPHV 7DEOH f 'XH WR FRDW FRORU YDULDWLRQ PRVW LQGLYLGXDOV ZHUH SUHSDUHG DV VNLQV 7KHUHIRUH UHFDSWXUH ILJXUHV XQGHUHVWLPDWH WUXH UHFDSWXUH UDWHV 6H[ UDWLRV DW ILUVW FDSWXUHV ZHUH ,Q FRQWUDVW WR RWKHU VPDOO PDPPDO VSHFLHV REVHUYHG LQ WKLV VWXG\ IHPDOHV ZHUH VOLJKWO\ KHDYLHU DQG ORQJHU WKDQ PDOHV 2WKHU ELRPHWULF SDUDPHWHUV ZHUH IRXQG QRW WR EH VLJQLILFDQWO\ GLPRUSKLF 7DEOH f 7KH VSHFLHV DSSHDUV WR EH PRVWO\ DUERUHDO $SSUR[LPDWHO\ b RI PDOHV DQG b RI IHPDOHV ZHUH FDSWXUHG LQ DUERUHDO WUDSV )LJXUH f 7KLV ILJXUH LV YHU\ FORVH WR WKDW REVHUYHG E\ 1LWLNPDQ DQG 0DUHV f LQ D JDOOHU\ IRUHVW RI &HQWUDO %UD]LO

PAGE 77

7DEOH %LRPHWULF GDWD IRU DGXOW PDOH DQG IHPDOH 2UY]RPYV WULQLWDWLV :HLJKW LV JLYHQ LQ JPV DQG RWKHU ERG\ PHDVXUHPHQWV LQ PP 3 UHIHUV WR SYDOXH DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK DQDO\VLV RI YDULDQFH IRU VH[XDO GLPRUSKLVP QV S! r S rr S rrr Sf +$/( )(0$/( 0HDQ 6W'HY 1 0HDQ 6W'HY 1 3 :HLJKW rr %RG\ OHQJWK rrr 7DLO OHQJWK Q V +LQG )RRW Q V (DU OHQJWK Q V

PAGE 78

'LIIHUHQWLDO 7UDSSLQJ 6XFFHVV LQ bf 7HUUHVWULDO 7UDSV $UERUHDO 7UDSV )LJXUH 'LIIHUHQWLDO WULQLWDWOV LQ DUERUHDO DQG WUDSSLQJ VXFFHVV RI PDOH DQG IHPDOH WHUUHVWULDO WUDSV

PAGE 79

0DOHV DQG IHPDOHV GLG QRW GLIIHU LQ GHJUHH RI DUERUHDOLW\ FKLVTXDUH GI S!f 6LQFH PRVW LQGLYLGXDOV ZHUH SUHSDUHG DV YRXFKHU VSHFLPHQV VDPSOH VL]H ZDV WRR VPDOO WR HYDOXDWH WKH GLIIHUHQWLDO XVH RI VXEVWUDWH E\ DQDO\]LQJ EHKDYLRU XSRQ UHOHDVH +RZHYHU WKH IHZ LQGLYLGXDOV WKDW ZHUH UHOHDVHG GHPRQVWUDWHG FOLPELQJ DELOLW\ (YHQ WKRXJK UHODWLYHO\ XQFRPPRQ LQ WKH IRUHVWV RI 0DQX 1DWLRQDO 3DUN LQ 3HUX 2U\]RP\V WULQLWDWLV FRQFRORUf ZDV OLVWHG E\ 7HUERUJK HW DO f DV EHLQJ DEOH WR XVH PRVW DOO IRUHVW VWUDWD IURP WKH XQGHUVWRU\ WR FDQRS\ $OWKRXJK WKHUH ZHUH YDULDWLRQV LQ WUDSSLQJ VXFFHVV DW D PRQWKO\ EDVLV WKHUH GRHV QRW VHHP WR H[LVW DQ\ VHDVRQ FKDUDFWHUL]HG E\ KLJK SRSXODWLRQ LQ FRQWUDVW WR PRVW RWKHU VSHFLHV )LJXUH f 7KLV PLJKW EH D FRQVHTXHQFH RI WKH DEVHQFH RI VHDVRQDO EUHHGLQJ 5HSURGXFWLRQ VHHPV WR WDNH SODFH WKURXJKRXW WKH \HDU DV EUHHGLQJ PDOHV DQG IHPDOHV ZHUH FDSWXUHG LQ RXW RI PRQWKV RI VWXG\ )LJXUH f 7KH WZR VWRPDFKV DYDLODEOH IRU DQDO\VLV LQGLFDWHG D KLJK GHJUHH RI LQVHFWLYRU\ 7KH VWRPDFK FRQWHQWV RI DQ LQGLYLGXDO ZHUH b LQVHFWV ZKLOH D VHFRQG KDG b XQLGHQWLILHG LQVHFWV DQG FROHSWHUD ODUYDH DQG b IUXLW SXOS 2[\PYFWHUXV VS 7KLV JHQXV LQFOXGHV VHPLIRVVRULDO FULFHWLGV 7KH JHQXV LV UHSUHVHQWHG LQ WKHVH IRUHVWV E\ RQO\ RQH MXYHQLOH PDOH DQG RQH DGXOW IHPDOH RI DQ \HW XQGHWHUPLQHG VSHFLHV

PAGE 80

-XQ -XO $XJ6HS2FW1RY'HF -DQ)HE0DU $SU0D\ -XQ -XO $XJ6HS2FW Â’ 1XPEHU RI &DSWXUHV ++ 5DLQ\ 6HDVRQ /LPLWV )LJXUH 1XPEHU RI FDSWXUHV RI &/ WULQLWDWLV DFFRUGLQJ WR PRQWKO\ WUDSSLQJ SHULRG 6WUDLJKW OLQH HQFORVHV ERXQGDULHV RI UDLQ\ VHDVRQ 6HSWHPEHU WR )HEUXDU\f

PAGE 81

*0 %UHHGLQJ 0DOHV G+ %UHHGLQJ )HPDOHV 60HDQ 5DLQIDOO FPf )LJXUH 1XPEHU RI EUHHGLQJ PDOH DQG IHPDOH WULQLWDWLV DFFRUGLQJ WR PRQWKO\ WUDSSLQJ SHULRG /LQH UHSUHVHQWV PHDQ GDLO\ UDLQIDOO PPf

PAGE 82

7DEOH f 0HPEHUV RI WKLV JHQXV DUH PRVWO\ LQVHFWLYRURXV %RUFKHUW DQG +DQVHQ 5HGIRUG f WZR VWRPDFKV DQDO\]HG LQ WKH SUHVHQW VWXG\ \LHOGHG b LQVHFWV HVSHFLDOO\ &ROHSWHUD ODUYDH DQG DQWV 6SHFLHV RI WKH JHQXV 2[\P\FWHUXV DUH PRUH FRPPRQO\ IRXQG LQ JUDVVODQGV DQG LQXQGDWHG VDYDQQDV %RUFKHUW DQG +DQVHQ )RQVHFD DQG 5HGIRUG 5HGIRUG f D KDELW ZKLFK FDQ DFFRXQW IRU WKH UDULW\ RI WKH VSHFLHV LQ WKH IRUHVWV RI WKLV VWXG\ %LRPHWULF GDWD IRU WKH PDOH DQG IHPDOH DUH UHVSHFWLYHO\ ZHLJKW DQG JUDPV ERG\ OHQJWK DQG PLOOLPHWHUV WDLO OHQJWK DQG PLOOLPHWHUV KLQG IRRW DQG PLOOLPHWHUV 3URHFKLPYV VHWRVXV 6SLQ\ UDWV ZHUH WKH WKLUG PRVW DEXQGDQW VPDOO PDPPDO LQ WKLV VWXG\ 7DEOH f 2QO\ RSRVVXPV VXUSDVVHG 3URHFKLPYV VHWRVXV LQ QXPEHU RI UHFDSWXUHV (YHQ WKRXJK VSHFLHV RI WKH JHQXV 3URHFKLP\V ZHUH DOVR IRXQG WR EH TXLWH FRPPRQ LQ RWKHU VWXGLHV LQ WKH $WODQWLF IRUHVW 'DYLV &DUYDOKR $YLOD3LUHV DQG *RXYHD %RWHOKR DQG /LQDUGL 0LOHV HW DO )RQVHFD HW DO f LQ WKH &HUUDGR )RQVHFD DQG 5HGIRUG $OKR HW DO f DQG LQ WKH $PD]RQ UHJLRQ %LVKRS (PPRQV 7HUERUJK HW DO 0DOFROP f VSLQ\ UDWV ZHUH VXUSULVLQJO\ DEVHQW IURP WKH 5LR 'RFH 3DUN WUDSOLQHV 7KLV FDQ SRVVLEO\ EH DWWULEXWHG WR KLJKHU SUHGDWLRQ UDWH E\ PDPPDOLDQ FDUQLYRUHV RZOV DQG RWKHU SUHGDWRUV DW WKH 5LR

PAGE 83

'RFH 3DUN VHH &KDSWHU f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f 7KLV PD\ UHVXOW IURP WKH LQFUHDVH LQ WKH UHFUXLWPHQW UDWH RI MXYHQLOHV LQWR WKH SRSXODWLRQ DW WKLV WLPH )LJXUH f +RZHYHU UHSURGXFWLRQ GRHV QRW VHHP WR EH VWULFWO\ VHDVRQDO DV LW ZDV DOVR REVHUYHG E\ %LVKRS f LQ 0DWR *URVVR %UD]LO 3UHJQDQW DQG ODFWDWLQJ IHPDOHV ZHUH SUHVHQW Q DOO WUDSSLQJ VHVVLRQV DOWKRXJK DQ LQFUHDVH LQ WKH IUHTXHQF\ RI EUHHGLQJ LQGLYLGXDOV FRXOG EH REVHUYHG ERWK LQ PLGUDLQ\ VHDVRQ DQG LQ PLGGU\ VHDVRQ )LJXUH f $ IHZ IHPDOHV KDG WZR OLWWHUV LQ WKH VDPH \HDU FRLQFLGLQJ ZLWK WKH DERYH PHQWLRQHG EUHHGLQJ SHDNV 7KHUH LV QR VH[XDO GLPRUSKLVP LQ WKLV VSHFLHV RI VSLQ\ UDW DV QRQH RI WKH PRUSKRORJLFDO FKDUDFWHUV PHDVXUHG VLJQLILFDQWO\ GLIIHU EHWZHHQ VH[HV 7DEOH f 3URHFKLP\V VHWRVXV LV HQWLUHO\

PAGE 84

7DEOH %LRPHWULF GDWD IRU DGXOW PDOH DQG IHPDOH 3URHFKLP\V VHWRVXV :HLJKW LV JLYHQ LQ JPV DQG RWKHU ERG\ PHDVXUHPHQWV LQ PP 1 QXPEHU RI LQGLYLGXDOV 6W 'HY 6WDQGDUG 'HYLDWLRQ 3 UHIHUV WR S YDOXH DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK DQDO\VLV RI YDULDQFH IRU VH[XDO GLPRUSKLVP QV S!r S rr S rrr Sf 0$/( )(0$/( 0HDQ 6W'HY 1 0HDQ 6W'HY 1 3 :HLJKW Q V %RG\ OHQJWK QV 7DLO OHQJWK Q V +LQG )RRW QV (DU OHQJWK QV

PAGE 85

7DEOH $QDO\VLV RI VHYHQ VWRPDFKV RI 3URHFKLPYV VHWRVXV 3(5&(17$*( 2) ,' 1XPEHU )UXLW ,QVHFWV 6HHGV 3 3 3 3 r 3 3 3 r 7HUPLWHV DQG &ROHSWHUD ODUYDH

PAGE 86

@ 1XPEHU RI &DSWXUHV ++ 5DLQ\ 6HDVRQ /LPLWV )LJXUH 1XPEHU RI FDSWXUHV RI 3BcB VHWRVXV DFFRUGLQJ WR PRQWKO\ WUDSSLQJ SHULRG 6WUDLJK OLQH HQFORVH ERXQGDULHV RI UDLQ\ VHDVRQ 6HSWHPEHU WR )HEUXDU\f

PAGE 87

Â’ 1XPEHU RI -XYHQLOHV aV 0HDQ 5DLQIDOO FPf )LJXUH 1XPEHU RI VHWRVXV MXYHQLOHV DFFRUGLQJ WR PRQWKO\ WUDSSLQJ SHULRG /LQH UHSUHVHQWV PHDQ GDLO\ UDLQIDOO PPf

PAGE 88

E666 %UHHGLQJ 0DOHV 5PQQLQJ )HPDOHV %0HDQ 5DLQIDOO FPf )LJXUH 1XPEHU RI EUHHGLQJ PDOH DQG IHPDOH )?B VHWRVXV DFFRUGLQJ WR PRQWKO\ WUDSSLQJ SHULRG /LQH UHSUHVHQWV PHDQ GDLO\ UDLQIDOO PPf

PAGE 89

)UHTXHQF\ W 0DOHV af§ )HPDOHV )LJXUH )UHTXHQF\ RI LQGLYLGXDOV RI )? VHWRVXV SHUVLVWLQJ ZLWKLQ WUDSOLQHV

PAGE 90

WHUUHVWULDO ODFNLQJ DQ\ VFDQVRULDO DELOLW\ $OO VSLQ\ UDW FDSWXUHV ZHUH FRQGXFWHG LQ WHUUHVWULDO WUDSV $QDO\VLV RI VWRPDFK FRQWHQWV LQGLFDWHV WKDW VSLQ\ UDWV DUH SULPDULO\ IUXJLYRURXV EXW DOVR PDNH RSSRUWXQH XVH RI LQVHFWV DQG VHHGV 7DEOH f (PPRQV f IRXQG 3URHFKLPYV WR EH KLJKO\ IUXJLYRURXV ZLWK LQVHFWV EHLQJ IUHTXHQW LQ VWRPDFK VDPSOHV $OWKRXJK LQ DYHUDJH IHPDOHV SHUVLVWHG LQ WUDSOLQHV PRUH WKDQ PDOHV UHVSHFWLYHO\ DQG PRQWKVf WKHUH ZHUH QR VLJQLILFDQW GLIIHUHQFHV EHWZHHQ VH[HV FKLVTXDUH GI S!f 7KH UHFRUGV IRU SHUVLVWHQFH WLPHV ZHUH REWDLQHG E\ WZR IHPDOHV ZKR VWD\HG UHVSHFWLYHO\ DQG PRQWKV ZLWKLQ WUDSOLQHV )LJXUH f 0DOHV DQG IHPDOHV DOVR GLG QRW GLIIHU LQ PHDQ WUDYHOOHG GLVWDQFHV EHWZHHQ VXFFHVVLYH FDSWXUHV ZLWK UHVSHFWLYHO\ PD[LPXP PHWHUVf DQG PHWHUV PD[LPXP PHWHUVf 5K\SLGRPYV PDVWDFDOLV 7KLV DUERUHDO UDW +HUVKNRYLW] f ZDV RQO\ FDXJKW RQFH LQ WKLV VWXG\ LQ WKH PRQWK RI 6HSWHPEHU ,W LV IRXQG PRVWO\ LQ PRLVW IRUHVWHG KDELWDWV 'DYLV 'LHW] )RQVHFD DQG 5HGIRUG $OKR HW DO f HYHQ WKRXJK LW FDQ DOVR LQYDGH KRXVHKROGV 1RZDN DQG 3DUDGLVR 6WDOOLQJV SHUV FRPP f 7KH DGXOW PDOH PHDVXUHPHQWV DUH DV IROORZV ZHLJKW JUDPV ERG\ OHQJWK PLOOLPHWHUV WDLO OHQJWK PLOOLPHWHUV KLQG IRRW PLOOLPHWHUV HDU OHQJWK PLOOLPHWHUV

PAGE 91

'LVFXVVLRQ 6HDVRQDOLW\ DQG 5HVRXUFH 8VH 2QH RI WKH PRVW VWULNLQJ SKHQRPHQD FRPPRQ WR VHYHUDO VPDOO PDPPDOV RI WKH ZHVWHUQ VORSHV RI WKH $WODQWLF IRUHVW LV WKH RFFXUUHQFH RI VHDVRQDO UHSURGXFWLRQ :LWK WKH H[FHSWLRQ RI WKH WZR PRVW DEXQGDQW URGHQWV 2UY]RP\V WULQLWDWLV DQG 3URHFKLP\V VHWRVXVf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f ZKLFK LQGLFDWHV WKDW UHFHQWO\ ZHDQHG MXYHQLOHV DUH UHFUXLWHG LQWR WKH SRSXODWLRQ DW WKH HQG RI WKH UDLQV $NRGRQ FXUVRU LV DOVR D VHDVRQDO EUHHGHU EXW XQOLNH PDUVXSLDOV LW FRQFHQWUDWHG LWV UHSURGXFWLRQ LQ WKH GU\ VHDVRQ 'DYLV f DQG /DHPPHUW HW DO f REVHUYHG D SDWWHUQ RI F\FOLF UHSURGXFWLRQ DPRQJ VHYHUDO %UD]LOLDQ $WODQWLF IRUHVW VPDOO PDPPDO VSHFLHV %UHHGLQJ ZDV FRQFHQWUDWHG LQ WKH ODWH GU\ ZLQWHU

PAGE 92

DQG LQ WKH ZHW VXPPHU PRQWKV DOEHLW OHVV PDUNHG WKDQ LQ WKH SUHVHQW VWXG\ 7KH SRVVLEOH UHDVRQ IRU WKLV PD\ EH WKDW ERWK WKHVH VWXGLHV ZHUH LQ WKH HDVWHUQ VLGH RI WKH %UD]LOLDQ FRDVWDO PRXQWDLQV ZKHUH WKH GU\ VHDVRQ LV VKRUWHU DQG OHVV VHYHUH +XHFN f 7KHVH WZR VWXGLHV KDYH DOVR UHYHDOHG WKH ODFN RI VHDVRQDOLW\ IRU VRPH URGHQW VSHFLHV HVSHFLDOO\ RQHV IURP WKH JHQXV 3URHFKLP\V ZKLFK SUREDEO\ EUHHG \HDUURXQG WKURXJKRXW LWV UDQJH $ ODUJH QXPEHU RI $IULFDQ URGHQWV VHHP DOVR WR FORVHO\ WLH WKH RQVHW RI UHSURGXFWLYH DFWLYLWLHV WR MXVW EHIRUH WKH HQG RI WKH ZHW VHDVRQ 'HODQ\ f &HUUDGR VSHFLHV DSSHDU WR EH HTXDOO\ GLYLGHG EHWZHHQ VHDVRQDO DQG \HDUURXQG EUHHGHUV 'LHW] $OKR $OKR DQG 3HUHLUD f ,Q 3DQDPD RYHU b RI PDPPDOV DUH VHDVRQDO EUHHGHUV )OHPLQJ f DOWKRXJK UHSURGXFWLRQ LV FRQFHQWUDWHG LQ WKH WKUHH PRQWKV RI WKH GU\ VHDVRQ ZKLFK UHVXOWV LQ PRVW \RXQJ EHLQJ ZHDQHG DW WKH EHJLQQLQJ RI WKH UDLQV 2WKHU WKLQJV HTXDO UHSURGXFWLYH RXWSXW DQG MXYHQLOH VXUYLYDO RI VPDOO PDPPDOV ZRXOG EH PD[LPL]HG LI UHSURGXFWLRQ RFFXUV ZKHQ WKH HQYLURQPHQW LV EHVW LQ WHUPV RI UHVRXUFH DYDLODELOLW\ )OHPLQJ Ef ,Q IOXFWXDWLQJ HQYLURQPHQWV WKH HQHUJHWLF FRVWV RI SUHJQDQF\ DQG ODFWDWLRQ FRXSOHG ZLWK WKH QHHGV RI DGHTXDWH UHVRXUFHV IRU QHZO\ ZHDQHG \RXQJ VKRXOG SRVH FRQVWUDLQWV RQ WKH WLPLQJ RI UHSURGXFWLRQ /HH DQG &RFNEXUQ f VWDWH WKDW DOO WURSLFDO GLGHOSKLGV DUH VHDVRQDO EUHHGHUV DQG WKH WLPLQJ RI

PAGE 93

UHSURGXFWLRQ LV OLQNHG ZLWK DYDLODELOLW\ RI IRRG 0DUVXSLDO IRRG UHVRXUFHV LQ WXUQ DUH WLHG WR WKH IOXFWXDWLRQ LQ UDLQIDOO UHJLPHV RI VHDVRQDO HQYLURQPHQWV &KDUOHV'RPLQLTXH f ,QIRUPDWLRQ RQ VPDOO PDPPDO GLHWV LQ WKLV VWXG\ LV QRW VXIILFLHQW WR SURYLGH DQ DFFXUDWH DQG ORQJLWXGLQDO SLFWXUH RI GLHW FRPSRVLWLRQ +RZHYHU LW LV LPSRUWDQW WR QRWLFH WKDW DOO EXW WKH VHPLDTXDWLF 1HFWRP\V VTXDPLSHV ZHUH REVHUYHG WR FRQVXPH LQVHFWV LQ YDULDEOH TXDQWLWLHV $OO GLGHOSKLG PDUVXSLDOV DSSHDU WR EH SUHGRPLQDQWO\ LQVHFWLYRURXV 1RZDN DQG 3DUDGLVR f DQG HYHQ ODUJHERGLHG VSHFLHV VXFK DV 'LGHOSKLV PDUVXSLDO LV DQG 3KLODQGHU RSRVVXP GHSHQG KHDYLO\ RQ LQVHFW SUH\ &KDUOHV'RPLQTXH f 0HWDFKL UXV QXGLFDXGDWXV 0DUPRVD VSS DQG &DOXURP\V SKLODQGHU KDYH DOVR EHHQ OLVWHG DV EHLQJ FRQVXPHUV RI DQWV DQG WHUPLWHV 5HGIRUG f DOWKRXJK WKH ODWWHU VSHFLHV PD\ UHO\ PRUH KHDYLO\ RQ IUXLWV $WUDPHQWRZLF] f 5HVXOWV RI VWXGLHV RQ LQVHFW SRSXODWLRQ IOXFWXDWLRQV LQ WKH QHRWURSLFV YDU\ VHH (OWRQ %LJJHU -DQ]HQ DQG 6FKRHQHU -DQ]HQ :ROGD f EXW PRVW DXWKRUV DJUHH WKDW VDPSOHV REWDLQHG LQ ZHW VHDVRQ PRQWKV DUH ODUJHU WKDQ FRPSDUDEOH RQHV FROOHFWHG GXULQJ WKH GU\ PRQWKV 'DYLV :ROGD 6P\WKH &KDUOHV'RPLQLTXH f 7KHUHIRUH WKH WUHQGV RI WKLV VWXG\ FHUWDLQO\ VXSSRUW WKH QRWLRQ WKDW VPDOO PDPPDO UHSURGXFWLRQ HVSHFLDOO\ WKDW RI PDUVXSLDOV LV LQIOXHQFHG E\ DYDLODELOLW\ RI LQVHFW SUH\ +RZHYHU XQWLO WKH YDULDWLRQ LQ

PAGE 94

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f 1RQHWKHOHVV IUXLW SURGXFWLRQ RI VHYHUDO SODQW VSHFLHV RI VHDVRQDO QHRWURSLFDO HQYLURQPHQWV KDV EHHQ VKRZQ WR EH LQIOXHQFHG E\ SUHFLSLWDWLRQ XVXDOO\ SHDNLQJ MXVW SULRU WR WKH VWDUW RI WKH UDLQ\ VHDVRQ )RVWHU 6P\WKH HW DO &KDUOHV'RPLQLTXH f $ VHFRQG SHDN LQ IUXLW SURGXFWLYLW\ FDQ DOVR EH SUHVHQW DW WKH HQG RI WKH UDLQ\ VHDVRQ 'DYLV f $ SUHOLPLQDU\ VWXG\ FRQGXFWHG LQ WKH 5LR 'RFH 3DUN &(7(& f DOVR LQGLFDWHG WKDW WKHUH DUH WUHH VSHFLHV IORZHULQJ DQG IUXLWLQJ WKURXJKRXW WKH \HDU DQG DOVR WKDW WKHUH LV D VOLJKW SHDN LQ WKH QXPEHU RI IUXLWLQJ VSHFLHV LQ 6HSWHPEHU DQG 2FWREHU LH LQ WKH HDUO\ UDLQ\ VHDVRQ

PAGE 95

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f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

PAGE 96

ZLWK GHVFULSWLRQV RI RWKHU QHRWURSLFDO VPDOO PDPPDO IDXQD ZKHUH WKH PDMRULW\ RI VSHFLHV VKRZ VRPH OHYHO RI FOLPELQJ DELOLW\ VHH $XJXVW )RQVHFD HW DO 1LWLNPDQ DQG 0DUHV f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f SURYLGHG GDWD LQGLFDWLQJ WKDW WKH LQVHFW IDXQDV RI WKH FDQRS\ DQG RI WKH XQGHUJURZWK FDQ IOXFWXDWH DV\QFKURQLRXVO\ ZLWK HDFK RWKHU 7KHUHIRUH LI D SDUWLFXODU IRRG UHVRXUFH LV XQGHUJRLQJ D SHULRG RI VHDVRQDO VKRUWDJH WKRVH VSHFLHV ZLWK YHUVDWLOH KDELWV ZRXOG EH DW DQ DGYDQWDJH ,W KDV EHHQ GHPRQVWUDWHG EHIRUH WKDW LQ WKH KLJKO\ VHDVRQDO VDYDQQD UHJLRQ RI FHQWUDO %UD]LO JDOOHU\ IRUHVWV SOD\ DQ LPSRUWDQW UROH LQ PDLQWDLQLQJ RYHUDOO PDPPDOLDQ VSHFLHV GLYHUVLW\ )RQVHFD DQG 5HGIRUG f DQG EHFRPH FUXFLDO GXULQJ SHULRGV RI VWUHVV 3DUW RI WKH UHDVRQ IRU WKLV PD\ EH OLQNHG WR WKH KLJKHU SURGXFWLYLW\ RI WKH WULGLPHQVLRQDO JDOOHU\ IRUHVW HQYLURQPHQW ZKHQ FRPSDUHG GXULQJ SHULRGV RI PRLVWXUH GHILFLW WR WKDW RI WKH FHUUDGR VDYDQQDV

PAGE 97

/LIH +LVWRU\ 3DWWHUQV :KLOH WKH RFFXUUHQFH RI SRXFK OLWWHUV ZLWK VNHZHG VH[ UDWLRV LQ QHRWURSLFDO PDUVXSLDO VSHFLHV KDV QRW RIWHQ EHHQ UHSRUWHG LW ZDV LQWHUHVWLQJ WR ILQG 'LGHOSKLV PDUVXSLDO LV ZLWK OLWWHUV KDYLQJ D SUHGRPLQDQFH RI PDOHV 6NHZHG VH[ UDWLRV KDYH RQO\ EHHQ DFKLHYHG H[SHULPHQWDOO\ XQGHU D UHJLPH RI GLHW VXSSOHPHQWDWLRQ D SURFHGXUH ZKLFK GRHV QRW DOZD\V SURGXFH WKH SUHGLFWHG PDOH ELDV RXWFRPH $XVWDG DQG 6XQTXLVW f 7KHUHIRUH LW LV LPSRUWDQW WKDW IXWXUH LQYHVWLJDWLRQV DGGUHVV WKLV TXHVWLRQ 7KH IHPDOHELDVHG VH[ UDWLR REWDLQHG IRU 0HWDFKL UXV QXGLFDXGDWXV SRXFK \RXQJ LV QRW EDVHG RQ D ODUJH HQRXJK VDPSOH VL]H DQG WKHUHIRUH UHPDLQV LQFRQFOXVLYH 7KUHH RXW RI IRXU PDUVXSLDO VSHFLHV IRU ZKLFK VDPSOH VL]H ZDV ODUJH HQRXJK WR DOORZ VWDWLVWLFDO LQIHUHQFH SURYHG VH[XDOO\ GLPRUSKLF 0DOH 'LGHOSKLV PDUVXSLDO LV KDV DOVR EHHQ IRXQG WR EH ODUJHU WKDQ IHPDOHV HOVHZKHUH LQ 6RXWK $PHULFD 2f&RQQHOO f 2WKHU 0DUPRVD VSHFLHV DOVR KDYH ODUJHU DQG KHDYLHU PDOHV 1RZDN DQG 3DUDGLVR f WKH VDPH EHLQJ WUXH IRU 3KLODQGHU RSRVVXP 1R UHIHUHQFHV KDYH EHHQ IRXQG WR LQGLFDWH VL]H GLIIHUHQFHV IRU 0HWDFKL UXV QXGLFDXGDWXV H[FHSW IRU WKH SUHVHQW VWXG\ :KLOH ODUJHU PDOHV KDYH EHHQ XVXDOO\ DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK SRO\J\QRXV VSHFLHV LQ ZKLFK PDOHV VWURQJO\ FRPSHWH IRU IHPDOHV 5DOOV f WKHUH ZDV QR HYLGHQFH RI WHUULWRULDO GHIHQVH E\ DQ\ RI WKH PDUVXSLDOV VWXGLHG KHUH +RZHYHU WKLV GRHV QRW QHFHVVDULO\ SUHFOXGH PDOHV

PAGE 98

IURP DFWLYHO\ FRPSHWLQJ IRU IHPDOHV DW RYHUODSSLQJ UDQJHV )LHUFH ILJKWLQJ IRU HVWURXV IHPDOHV KDV EHHQ REVHUYHG HOVHZKHUH LQ 'LGHOSKLV PDUVXSLDO LV $XVWDG DQG 6XQTXLVW f 6LQFH PDUVXSLDO EUHHGLQJ LQ WKLV VWXG\ ZDV XVXDOO\ FRQILQHG WR D FHUWDLQ VHDVRQ WKH SRWHQWLDO IRU PDOHPDOH FRPSHWLWLRQ IRU HVWURXV IHPDOHV LV OLNHO\ 5RGHQWV RQ WKH RWKHU KDQG DUH VHOGRP GLPRUSKLF VHH (LVHQEHUJ f HVSHFLDOO\ WKH VPDOOHU VSHFLHV ,Q RQO\ RQH VSHFLHV 2U\]RP\V WULQLWDWLV FRXOG D VL]H GLIIHUHQFH EH IRXQG LQ WKLV VWXG\ ,Q WKLV LQVWDQFH KRZHYHU IHPDOHV SURYHG LQ DYHUDJH WR EH ODUJHU WKDQ PDOHV 7KLV FRXOG EH DWWULEXWHG WR H[WUD HQHUJHWLF GHPDQG SODFHG RQ SUHJQDQW DQG ODFWDWLQJ IHPDOHV D FRVW QRQH[LVWHQW IRU PDOHV ZKR GR QRW SURYLGH SDUHQWDO FDUH VHH 5DOOV f 0RUHRYHU VLQFH URGHQW \RXQJ GR QRW XQGHUJR XQOLNH PDUVXSLDOV D WHDW DWWDFKPHQW SKDVH IHPDOH SODFHQWDO PDPPDOV PD\ LQFUHDVH OLWWHU VL]H DERYH WKDW RI WKH WHDWV 7KH LQFUHDVH LQ URGHQW OLWWHU VL]HV PD\ EH DFKLHYHG LI WKH IHPDOH LV ODUJHU DQG EHWWHU QRXULVKHG 0DUVXSLDO OLWWHU VL]HV RQ WKH RWKHU KDQG GXH WR WKH REOLJDWRU\ WHDW DWWDFKPHQW SKDVH DUH FRQVWUDLQHG E\ WKH QXPEHU RI WHDWV )XUWKHUPRUH PDUVXSLDOV FDQ VSRQWDQHRXVO\ WHUPLQDWH ODFWDWLRQ RU PRUH RIWHQ LQ VPDOOHU VSHFLHV UHGXFH OLWWHU VL]H LI HQHUJHWLFDOO\ VWUHVVHG /HH DQG &RFNEXUQ f
PAGE 99

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f DQGRU MXYHQLOH PLJUDWLRQ DQG GLVSHUVDO /LGLFNHU f SUHGDWLRQ PLJKW DOVR SOD\ DQ LPSRUWDQW UROH LQ LQFUHDVLQJ WXUQRYHU UDWHV DPRQJ WURSLFDO VPDOO PDPPDOV 0RQWKO\ WXUQRYHU UDWH IRU WKH VPDOO FULFHWLG URGHQW $NRGRQ FXUVRU DSSURDFKHG b LQ WKLV VWXG\ 6HYHUDO DXWKRUV KDYH VXJJHVWHG WKDW SUHGDWRUV PLJKW FDXVH YDULDWLRQV LQ ORFDO DEXQGDQFHV $XJXVW f DQG VRPHWLPHV WKH\ GR WDNH D ODUJH SHUFHQWDJH RI VPDOO PDPPDO VWDQGLQJ ELRPDVV +HUVKNRYLW] 3HDUVRQ (PPRQV 6XQTXLVW HW DO f 3UHGDWLRQ LQ WUDSV ZDV REVHUYHG LQ WKLV VWXG\ RQ VHYHUDO RFFDVLRQV DQG LW LV IHOW WKDW LW PD\ SOD\ D PDMRU UROH LQ WKH VWUXFWXUH RI WKHVH FRPPXQLWLHV &KDSWHU f $ ODUJH QXPEHU RI

PAGE 100

PDPPDOLDQ SUHGDWRUV DV ZHOO DV RZOV KDYH EHHQ REVHUYHG SUHGDWLQJ RQ VHYHUDO RI WKH PDUVXSLDOV DQG URGHQWV WUDSSHG LQ WKH SUHVHQW UHVHDUFK DQG VXVSHFW WKDW SUHGDWRUV DUH UHVSRQVLEOH IRU D ODUJH IUDFWLRQ RI WKH REVHUYHG WXUQRYHU UDWHV RQ WKHVH VPDOO PDPPDO FRPPXQLWLHV

PAGE 101

&+$37(5 60$// 0$00$/ 63(&,(6 ',9(56,7< ,1 %5$=,/,$1 7523,&$/ 35,0$5< $1' 6(&21'$5< )25(676 2) ',))(5(17 6,=(6 ,QWURGXFWLRQ 'XULQJ UHFHQW \HDUV FRQVLGHUDEOH DWWHQWLRQ KDV EHHQ JLYHQ WR WKH %UD]LOLDQ $WODQWLF IRUHVW HFRV\VWHP RQH RI WKH PRVW WKUHDWHQHG LQ WKH ZRUOG 0LWWHUPHLHU HW DO )RQVHFD Df (VWLPDWHV RI UHPDLQLQJ IRUHVW DUHD LQGLFDWH WKDW OHVV WKDQ b RI WKH UHJLRQ KDV VRPH IRUP RI IRUHVW FRYHU 9LFWRU LQ $OPHLGD DQG 5RFKD )RQVHFD Df ,W LV SRVVLEOH WKDW OHVV WKDQ ; RI WKH $WODQWLF IRUHVW UHJLRQ RI %UD]LO UHPDLQV LQ D UHODWLYHO\ XQGLVWXUEHG IRUP 0LWWHUPHLHU HW DO f 3UHYLRXV VWXGLHV KDYH IRFXVHG PDLQO\ RQ WKH KLJKO\ HQGHPLF DQG GLYHUVH SULPDWH IDXQD &RLPEUD)LOKR DQG 0LWWHUPHLHU f DQG RQ ELUGV :LOOLV f 2Q WKH RWKHU KDQG WKH EXON RI PDPPDOLDQ GLYHUVLW\ UHSUHVHQWHG SULQFLSDOO\ E\ URGHQWV PDUVXSLDOV DQG EDWV UHPDLQV ODUJHO\ XQNQRZQ 7KLV RPLVVLRQ PXVW EH UHFWLILHG EHFDXVH GHIRUHVWDWLRQ DQG RWKHU IRUPV RI KDELWDW PRGLILFDWLRQ VXFK DV OXPEHULQJ DQG IXHOZRRG H[WUDFWLRQ FRQWLQXH WR DOWHU WKH PDPPDOLDQ FRPPXQLWLHV 7KH YDVW PDMRULW\ RI IRUHVW SDWFKHV OHIW LQ WKH UHJLRQ DUH VPDOO DQG GLVWXUEHG 8QGHU WKHVH FLUFXPVWDQFHV VHFRQG

PAGE 102

JURZWK IRUHVWV DQG WKHLU DQLPDO FRPPXQLWLHV DFTXLUH D IXQGDPHQWDO LPSRUWDQFH LQ DQ\ FRQVHUYDWLRQ VFKHPH IRU WKH UHJLRQ DQG VKRXOG EH DFWLYHO\ UHVHDUFKHG 7KH SUHVHQW VWXG\ ZLOO H[DPLQH WKH HIIHFWV RI DUHD VL]H DQG KDELWDW VWUXFWXUH RQ WKH GLYHUVLW\ RI QRQYRODQW VPDOO PDPPDOV URGHQWV DQG PDUVXSLDOVf LQ VHYHUDO IRUHVWHG DUHDV RI WKH $WODQWLF UHJLRQ RI %UD]LO 5RGHQWV DQG PDUVXSLDOV DUH DVVXPHG WR UHSUHVHQW DQ LGHQWLILDEOH PDMRU JXLOG ZLWKLQ WKH ODUJHU PDPPDOLDQ FRPPXQLW\ 7KH\ DUH DOO UHODWLYHO\ VKRUWOLYHG KDYH VPDOO ERG\ VL]HV XVXDOO\ OHVV WKDQ NJf DUH PRVWO\ QRFWXUQDO KDYH JHQHUDOL]HG GLHWV DQG DUH QRW FRQILQHG WR KLJKHU VWUDWD RI WKH IRUHVW 7KH REMHFWLYH RI WKLV VWXG\ ZDV WR H[DPLQH KRZ Df PRGLILFDWLRQV LQ KDELWDW VWUXFWXUH DQG KHWHURJHQHLW\ DQG Ef WKH VL]H RI D IRUHVWHG DUHD DIIHFW VPDOO PDPPDO VSHFLHV ULFKQHVV DQG GLYHUVLW\ 6SHFLHV ULFKQHVV LV GHILQHG RQO\ E\ WKH DEVROXWH QXPEHU RI VSHFLHV LQ D FRPPXQLW\ 6SHFLHV GLYHUVLW\ LV GHILQHG E\ ERWK WKH QXPEHU RI VSHFLHV DQG WKH HYHQQHVV RI WKH FRQWULEXWLRQ RI HDFK WR WKH WRWDO QXPEHUV ZLWKLQ WKH FRPPXQLW\ 'LYHUVLW\ LV VKRZQ WR LQFUHDVH ZLWK WKH GHFUHDVH LQ WKH SUREDELOLW\ WKDW WZR LQGLYLGXDOV GUDZQ IURP WKH FRPPXQLW\ DW UDQGRP ZLOO EHORQJ WR WKH VDPH VSHFLHV 6DLG GLIIHUHQWO\ GLYHUVLW\ LV D PHDVXUH RI DYHUDJH UDULW\ 3LHORX 3DWLO DQG 7DLOOLH f /RFDO VSHFLHV ULFKQHVV DQG GLYHUVLW\ LQ WKH WURSLFV KDYH EHHQ DWWULEXWHG WR YDULRXV IDFWRUV /HLJK 3UDQFH

PAGE 103

%RXUOLHUH f /HDYLQJ DVLGH TXHVWLRQV RI KLVWRULFDO ELRJHRJUDSK\ HJ FRQWLQHQWDO GULIW SDWWHUQV RI VSHFLDWLRQ SDOHRFOLPDWLF F\FOHV HWFf VHYHUDO H[SODQDWLRQV KDYH EHHQ RIIHUHG DV WR WKH SUR[LPDWH PHFKDQLVPV WKDW OHDG WR WKH PDLQWHQDQFH RI VSHFLHV GLYHUVLW\ RU WR WKH DFKLHYHPHQW RI ORZHU UDWHV RI H[WLQFWLRQ LQ ORFDOL]HG DUHDV $PRQJ WKHVH DUH LQYHVWLJDWLRQV RI WKH HIIHFWV RI HQYLURQPHQWDO VWDELOLW\ RU PRGHUDWH OHYHOV RI GLVWXUEDQFH RQ WKH FRH[LVWHQFH RI VSHFLHV &RQQHOO DQG 6ODW\HU &RQQHOO f +DELWDW VWUXFWXUH DQG KHWHURJHQHLW\ KDYH EHHQ SURSRVHG DV SULPDU\ IDFWRUV SURPRWLQJ VPDOO PDPPDO VSHFLHV GLYHUVLW\ LQ WURSLFDO DUHDV $XJXVW )RQVHFD DQG 5HGIRUG f 7KH WKHRU\ RI LVODQG ELRJHRJUDSK\ KDG SUHYLRXV WR WKDW DOVR FDOOHG DWWHQWLRQ WR WKH HIIHFW WKDW DUHD VL]H KDV RQ WKH QXPEHU RI VSHFLHV RI HTXLOLEULXP FRPPXQLWLHV 0DF$UWKXU DQG :LOVRQ 0DF$UWKXU f $FFRUGLQJ WR WKLV IUDPHZRUN WKH QXPEHU RI VSHFLHV LQ DQ DUHD ZRXOG EH WKH UHVXOW RI H[WLQFWLRQFRORQL]DWLRQ G\QDPLFV 7KH LPSRUWDQFH RI WKH WKHRU\ RI LVODQG ELRJHRJUDSK\ OLHV LQ WKDW LW ZDV WKH ILUVW TXDQWLWDWLYH IUDPHZRUN IRUPXODWHG WR H[SODLQ DUHDVL]H UHODWLRQVKLSV ZKLFK ZHUH ORQJNQRZQ WKURXJK HPSLULFDO HYLGHQFH IRU D UHYLHZ VHH 'DUOLQJWRQ f :LOOLDPV f KDV RIIHUHG DQ DOWHUQDWLYH H[SODQDWLRQ IRU WKH DUHDVL]H UHODWLRQVKLS E\ K\SRWKHVL]LQJ WKDW WKH REVHUYHG LQFUHDVH LQ

PAGE 104

GLYHUVLW\ ZLWK WKH VL]H RI WKH DUHD UHIOHFWV WKH DGGLWLRQ RI GLVWLQFW KDELWDWV DQG LWV VSHFLHV FRPSRQHQWV WR WKH VDPSOHV ,W LV DOVR SRVVLEOH WR VXUYH\ IRU WKH FDXVHV IRU WKH SUHVHQFH RU DEVHQFH RI SDUWLFXODU VSHFLHV IURP ORFDO DUHDV EDVLQJ WKH LQYHVWLJDWLRQV RQ WKH PLFURKDELWDW FKDUDFWHULVWLFV RI WKH VSHFLHV DQG WKHLU FRPSHWLWLYH LQWHUDFWLRQV ZLWKLQ WKH FRPPXQLWLHV 'XHVHU DQG 6KXJDUW +DOOHWW HW DO 'XHVHU DQG 3RUWHU VHH DOVR &KDSWHU f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f 2WKHU VWXGLHV KDYH SURYLGHG GDWD RQ VPDOO PDPPDO HFRORJ\ RI VHYHUDO WURSLFDO HFRV\VWHPV IURP VDYDQQD W\SH YHJHWDWLRQ WR HYHUJUHHQ IRUHVWV )OHPLQJ D $OKR )RQVHFD DQG 5HGIRUG $OKR HW DO (PPRQV HW DO $XJXVW 'HODQ\ 1LWLNPDQ DQG 0DUHV ,VDELU\H%DVXWD DQG .DVHQHQH /DFKHU DQG $OKR LQ SUHVV /DFKHU HW DO LQ SUHVVf 7KHVH DUHDV KRZHYHU ZHUH PRVWO\ FKDUDFWHUL]HG E\ FRPSDUDWLYHO\ ORZHU VPDOO PDPPDO GLYHUVLW\

PAGE 105

&RPPXQLWLHV RI VPDOO PDPPDOV LQ WKH %UD]LOLDQ $WODQWLF IRUHVW RQ WKH RWKHU KDQG DUH XQXVXDOO\ ULFK LQ QXPEHU RI VSHFLHV 'DYLV 0RRMHQ f WKXV DOORZLQJ FRPSDULVRQV RI GLYHUVLW\ DPRQJ TXDOLWDWLYHO\ GLIIHUHQW DUHDV 0DWHULDOV DQG 0HWKRGV 7KH 5HJLRQ 7KLV VWXG\ ZDV FRQGXFWHG DW WKUHH VLWHV DOO ORFDWHG RQ WKH ZHVWHUQ VORSHV RI WKH %UD]LOLDQ $WODQWLF IRUHVW (YHQ WKRXJK WKH ZHVWHUQ VORSHV RI WKH $WODQWLF FRDVWDO UHJLRQ RI %UD]LO DUH ZLGHO\ UHFRJQL]HG LQ WKH OLWHUDWXUH DV EHORQJLQJ WR WKH PDMRU $WODQWLF IRUHVW IRUPDWLRQ SULPDULO\ EHFDXVH RI IDXQLVWLFDO VLPLODULWLHV 0XOOHU 0LWWHUPHLHU HW DO )RQVHFD f VRPH ERWDQLVWV GUDZ D GLVWLQFWLRQ EHWZHHQ WKH HDVWHUQ DQG WKH ZHVWHUQ VORSHV +XHFN (LWHQ $ORQVR f +XHFN f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

PAGE 106

WKH IRUHVW LV SK\VLRJQRPLFDOO\ YHU\ VLPLODU WKDW IRXQG LQ WKH PRUH ZHW DUHDV 3ULPDU\ IRUHVW LQ WKLV UHJLRQ ZLOO JHQHUDOO\ KDYH LWV FDQRS\ DW DERXW PHWHUV DQG LV ERWDQLFDOO\ YHU\ ULFK +XHFN f ZLWK D ZHOO GHYHORSHG PLGVWRU\ 6WXG\ 6LWHV $OO WKUHH VWXG\ VLWHV DUH ZLWKLQ D PD[LPXP RI NP IURP HDFK RWKHU DQG DUH ORFDWHG LQ WKH VWDWH RI 0LQDV *HUDLV %UD]LO 6HH )LJXUH f $OO VLWHV ZHUH RI GLIIHUHQW VL]HV ,Q HDFK WZR IRUHVW SDWFKHV ZHUH VHOHFWHG RQH SULPDU\ RU DW OHDVW LQ LWV ODWH VXFFHVVLRQDO VWDJHV DQG DQRWKHU VHFRQGDU\ LQ DOO FDVHV DSSUR[LPDWHO\ \HDUV ROG IROORZLQJ FOHDUFXWLQJ RU DQ H[WHQVLYH ILUH (DFK RI WKH IRUHVW SDWFKHV ZDV WKHQ PRQLWRUHG E\ D PRQWK OLYHWUDSSLQJ UHJLPH IRU VPDOO PDPPDOV 7KH ILUVW VLWH LV )D]HQGD (VPHUDOGD D FDWWOH DQG VXJDU FDQH IDUP LQ WKH FRXQW\ RI 5LR &DVFD 0LQDV *HUDLV VHH )LJXUH LQ &KDSWHU f 7KH SURSHUW\ LV ERXQGHG E\ WKH ULJKW EDQN RI WKH 5LR 'RFH ULYHU DQG LV FRPSRVHG RI D VHULHV RI YDOOH\V EHWZHHQ VHYHUDO KLOOV ZLWK D PD[LPXP RI PHWHUV LQ DOWLWXGH 7KH IDUP LV KD RI ZKLFK YHU\ OLWWOH UHPDLQ XQGHU IRUHVW 7KH EXON RI WKH GHIRUHVWDWLRQ WRRN SODFH EHWZHHQ DQG 2QH DSSUR[LPDWHO\ KD SDWFK NQRZQ DV /DJRD )ULD ZDV LQ ODWH VXFFHVVLRQ DQG ZDV VHOHFWHG DV WKH SULPDU\ IRUHVW VLWH RI WKH VPDOO VL]H FDWHJRU\ ,W LV GHVLJQDWHG LQ WKLV VWXG\ DV 6035 7KHUH DUH RWKHU VPDOO DUHDV

PAGE 107

PDLQO\ FRYHUHG E\ VHFRQGDU\ YHJHWDWLRQ VFDWWHUHG RQ WKH FURZQV RI WKH VHYHUDO KLOOV WKDW RFFXU ZLWKLQ WKH IDUP 2QH RI WKHVH D KD SDWFK DSSUR[LPDWHO\ \HDUV ROG DFFRUGLQJ WR WKH IDUP RZQHU DQG E\ HVWLPDWHV PDGH WKURXJK SK\VLRJQRPLF FRPSDULVRQV ZLWK RWKHU SDWFKHV RI NQRZQ DJHf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f &UHDWHG LQ WKH SDUN KDV DQ DUHD RI KD 'XH WR LWV VL]H WKH SDUN LV FHUWDLQO\ WKH PRVW LPSRUWDQW FRQVHUYDWLRQ XQLW IRU WKH $WODQWLF IRUHVW IRUPDWLRQ LQ WKH VWDWH RI 0LQDV *HUDLV $ PDMRU FKDUDFWHULVWLF RI

PAGE 108

WKH SDUN LV LWV QHWZRUN RI ERJ ODNHV 7KH SDUN LV DOPRVW FRPSOHWHO\ FRYHUHG ZLWK IRUHVW EXW GXH WR IUHTXHQW ILUHV GXULQJ WKH V SHUKDSV RQO\ DERXW RQHWKLUG LV SULPDU\ 7KH 5LR 'RFH 3DUN VWLOO FRQWDLQV WKH ODUJHVW WUDFW RI SULPDU\ IRUHVW OHIW LQ WKH VWDWH 2QH VHFWLRQ ZLWK WDOO SULPDU\ IRUHVW NQRZQ ORFDOO\ DV &DPSROLQD ZDV VHOHFWHG DQG ZLOO EH UHIHUUHG WR DV /*35 $ VHFRQG VLWH WKDW EXUQHG H[WHQVLYHO\ LQ LQ WKH +RWHOf UHJLRQ RI WKH SDUNf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f ,Q HDFK OLQH WUDSSLQJ VWDWLRQV ORFDWHG PHWHUV DSDUW ZHUH HVWDEOLVKHG 7UDSV ZHUH DOO FRQILQHG ZLWKLQ D FLUFOH RI PHWHU UDGLXV PHDVXUHG IURP WKH FHQWHU RI VWDWLRQ (DFK WUDS VWDWLRQ KDG RQH [ [ FHQWLPHWHU 7RPDKDZN VTXLUUHOVL]H OLYH WUDS 7RPDKDZN /LYH 7UDS &R 7RPDKDZN :LVFRQVLQf ORFDWHG RQ WKH JURXQG $W HYHU\ RWKHU VWDWLRQ DQRWKHU

PAGE 109

7RPDKDZN RI WKH VDPH VL]H ZDV ZLUHG DERYH JURXQG RQ EUDQFKHV RU YLQHV EHWZHHQ DQG PHWHUV KLJK ,Q DGGLWLRQ WR WKHVH WUDSV HYHU\ RWKHU VWDWLRQ SRVVHVVHG D PRXVHVL]HG FROODSVLEOH 6KHUPDQ WUDS + % 6KHUPDQ 7UDSV ,QF 7DOODKDVVHH )/f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

PAGE 110

)RU HDFK LQGLYLGXDO FDSWXUHG WKH IROORZLQJ LQIRUPDWLRQ ZDV UHFRUGHG 6SHFLHV /RFDWLRQ LQ JULG ,QGLYLGXDO LGHQWLILFDWLRQ LI DOUHDG\ WDJJHG ZLWK PHWDO ILVK WDJV )LVK DQG VPDOO DQLPDO WDJ VL]H 1DWLRQDO %DQG DQG 7DJ &R 1HZSRUW .HQWXFN\f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f&ORVNH\ 'XHVHU DQG 6KXJDUW $XJXVW f $W HDFK VWDWLRQ LQIRUPDWLRQ

PAGE 111

ZDV UHFRUGHG RQ D TXDOLWDWLYH VOLGLQJ VFDOH EHWZHHQ PLQLPXP VFRUH IRU D SDUDPHWHUf DQG PD[LPXP VFRUH IRU D SDUDPHWHUf IRU WKH IROORZLQJ YDULDEOHV 3HUFHQW FDQRS\ FRYHU &&f DERYH WUDS VWDWLRQ 3HUFHQW KHUEDFHRXV FRYHU +&f DURXQG FHQWHU RI WUDS VWDWLRQ ,QWHUFRQQHFWHGQHVV RI FDQRS\ &;&f UHSUHVHQWHG E\ EUDQFK WR EUDQFK FRQWDFW RU FDQRS\ WR FDQRS\ OLQN WKURXJK YLQHV ,QWHUFRQQHFWHGQHVV RI PLGVWRU\ &;0f 9ROXPH DW FDQRS\ KHLJKW '9&f UHSUHVHQWLQJ VSDUVH YHJHWDWLRQ GHQVH YHJHWDWLRQ 9ROXPH DW PLGVWRU\ KHLJKW '90f 9ROXPH RI KHUEDFHRXV YHJHWDWLRQ '9+f 9LQH GHQVLW\ '9f (SLSK\WH GHQVLW\ '(f )DOOHQ ORJV ZLWKLQ RU LQ FORVH YLFLQLW\ RI WUDS VWDWLRQ )/f /LWWHU YROXPH DW VRLO VXUIDFH +80f ,Q DGGLWLRQ WR WKHVH RWKHU YDULDEOHV ZHUH TXDQWLWDWLYHO\ PHDVXUHG 2YHUVWRU\ KHLJKW 2+f +HUEDFHRXV KHLJKW GHWHUPLQHG DV WKH PRVW UHSUHVHQWDWLYH KHLJKW FDWHJRU\ DW D WUDS VWDWLRQ ++f

PAGE 112

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f RU QXPEHU RI VSHFLHV UHFRUGHG IRU HDFK SDUWLFXODU WUDSOLQH DW D IRUHVW SORW GXULQJ WKH ZKROH FRXUVH RI WKH VWXG\ 6SHFLHV GLYHUVLW\ DV GHILQHG E\ WKH 6KDQQRQ:LHQHU GLYHUVLW\ LQGH[ +f 7RWDO QXPEHU RI LQGLYLGXDOV 1,f REVHUYHG DW D SDUWLFXODU VLWH GXULQJ WKH PRQWKV RI WUDSSLQJ H[FOXGLQJ UHFDSWXUHV

PAGE 113

6SHFLHV GLYHUVLW\ ZHLJKWHG E\ WKH QXPEHU RI LQGLYLGXDOV WUDSSHG :+f DQG GHILQHG DV :+ ASL ,Q SL 9c ZKHUH :+ ZHLJKWHG +f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f 6SHFLHV GLYHUVLW\ LV RQH RI WKH PRVW FRPPRQO\ PHDVXUHG FRPPXQLW\ VWUXFWXUH SDUDPHWHUV DQG KDV LPSRUWDQW HFRORJLFDO 3HHW 3LHORX 0D\ f DQG PDQDJHPHQW LPSOLFDWLRQV 0DUJXOHV DQG 8VKHU +DLU &RQDQW HW DO f 6HYHUDO LQGLFHV KDYH EHHQ VXJJHVWHG LQ WKH PHDVXUHPHQW RI GLYHUVLW\ IRU D GLVFXVVLRQ VHH 3HHW f 7KH PRVW FRPPRQO\ XVHG LQGH[ LQ ZLOGOLIH VWXGLHV LV WKH 6KDQQRQ:LHQHU +f +DLU f ZKLFK LV FDOFXODWHG DV

PAGE 114

Q +f 3L ,Q SLf L ZKHUH SL UHSUHVHQWV WKH SURSRUWLRQ RI LQGLYLGXDOV FDSWXUHG EHORQJLQJ WR WKH LWK VSHFLHV *LYHQ WKDW HYHQQHVV PHDVXUHV DUH QRW VHQVLWLYH WR DEVROXWH SRSXODWLRQ VL]HV RI VSHFLHV WKH\ FDQQRW DOZD\V EH XVHG DV LQGLFDWRUV RI XQGHUO\LQJ FRPPXQLW\ VWUXFWXUH RU DV LQGLFHV XVHIXO WR JXLGH FRQVHUYDWLRQ DQG PDQDJHPHQW GHFLVLRQV )RU WKLV UHDVRQ GHYHORSHG D ZHLJKWHG YHUVLRQ RI WKH LQGH[ :+f WKDW WDNHV LQWR FRQVLGHUDWLRQ WKH SRSXODWLRQ VL]HV RI WKH LQGLYLGXDO VSHFLHV 7KH UDWLRQDOH IRU GHYHORSLQJ WKLV LQGH[ ZDV WR SURYLGH IRU WKH HIIHFW RI SRSXODWLRQ VL]H RQ WKH SUREDELOLW\ RI ORFDO H[WLQFWLRQV ,Q DGGLWLRQ WR EHLQJ OHVV YXOQHUDEOH WR GHPRJUDSKLFVWRFKDVWLF H[WLQFWLRQ HYHQWV 0DF$UWKXU DQG :LOVRQ 6KDIIHU f ODUJHU SRSXODWLRQV DOVR WHQG WR EH OHVV VXVFHSWLEOH WR LQEUHHGLQJ GHSUHVVLRQ DQG ORVV RI JHQHWLF YDULDELOLW\ 6RXOH f 7KHUHIRUH ODUJH SRSXODWLRQV DUH OHVV OLDEOH WR JR ORFDOO\ H[WLQFW DQG WKLV YDULDEOH VKRXOG EH LQFOXGHG LQ D VSHFLHV GLYHUVLW\ LQGH[ 0HDVXUHV RI VSHFLHV GLYHUVLW\ WKDW DUH FRPSRVHG RI QXPEHU RI VSHFLHV DQG HYHQQHVV VXFK DV +f DQG RWKHUV FDUU\ QRW RQO\ HFRORJLFDO LPSOLFDWLRQV EXW DUH LQFUHDVLQJO\ XVHG LQ FRQVHUYDWLRQ DQG PDQDJHPHQW DSSOLFDWLRQV HJ 3UHVHUYDWLRQ RI ELRORJLFDO GLYHUVLW\ FRQFHSW 8VKHU f 7KH XVH RI DQ LQGH[ WKDW WDNHV LQWR DFFRXQW WKH QXPEHU RI LQGLYLGXDOV WUDSSHG LQ DGGLWLRQ WR WKH

PAGE 115

UHODWLYH FRQWULEXWLRQ RI HDFK WR WKH WRWDO SRSXODWLRQ VXFK DV +ff LV FHUWDLQO\ GHVLUDEOH :+ GLVWLQJXLVKHV EHWZHHQ FRPPXQLWLHV WKDW GLIIHU LQ WKH RYHUDOO SRSXODWLRQ GHQVLW\ DQ LPSRVVLELOLW\ ZLWK +f ,Q DGGLWLRQ +f KDV DOZD\V WKH SRWHQWLDO WR XQGHUUDWH KLJKO\ SURGXFWLYH DQG ULFK FRPPXQLWLHV LQ ZKLFK D VPDOO GHJUHH RI LPEDODQFH LQ UHODWLYH SURSRUWLRQV RI VSHFLHV RFFXUV 7KH XVH RI D VTXDUHURRW IXQFWLRQ RI QXPEHU RI LQGLYLGXDOV WUDSSHG LQ WKH LQGH[ LQVWHDG RI LWV DEVROXWH YDOXH VHUYHV VRPH XVHIXO SXUSRVHV 7KH XVH RI DQ H[SRQHQWLDOO\ GHFUHDVLQJ IXQFWLRQ UHIOHFWV WKH UHGXFWLRQ LQ WKH LPSRUWDQFH WKDW QXPEHU RI LQGLYLGXDOV VKRXOG KDYH RQ WKH LQGH[ ZKHQ VSHFLHVf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f 7KHUH DUH VRPH FDYHDWV WKDW VKRXOG EH VWUHVVHG EHIRUH LQWHUSUHWLQJ :+ YDOXHV ,GHDOO\ ZH VKRXOG EH DEOH WR PDLQWDLQ WKH PD[LPXP LQIRUPDWLRQ DERXW +f DV SRVVLEOH ZKLOH VLPXOWDQHRXVO\ DVVHVVLQJ SRSXODWLRQ VL]HV RI VSHFLHV 7KHUH DUH VRPH FDVHV

PAGE 116

KRZHYHU ,Q ZKLFK WKH :+ YDOXHV DUH QRW XVHIXO $ FRPPXQLW\ ZLWK D IHZ VSHFLHV EXW ZLWK H[WUHPHO\ KLJK SRSXODWLRQ GHQVLWLHV ZLOO \LHOG :+V WKDW DUH KLJKHU WKDQ FRPPXQLWLHV ZKLFK PD\ KDYH PDQ\ PRUH VSHFLHV EXW LQ ZKLFK SRSXODWLRQ GHQVLWLHV DUH ORZ DFURVV DOO PHPEHUV RI WKH FRPPXQLW\ 7KHUHIRUH LW VKRXOG QHYHU EH XVHG GLVDVVRFLDWHG IURP +f DQG 6 6HYHUDO VLPXODWLRQV ZHUH SHUIRUPHG ZLWK WKH LQGH[ WR H[DPLQH LWV EHKDYLRU XQGHU GLIIHUHQW SRSXODWLRQ VL]H FRQGLWLRQV $OO VLPXODWLRQV WKDW ZHUH FRQGXFWHG ZLWK :+ ZHUH DOVR FRQGXFWHG ZLWK +f VR DV WR FRPSDUH WKHP XQGHU GLIIHUHQW FLUFXPVWDQFHV ,Q DGGLWLRQ REVHUYHG WKH IOXFWXDWLRQ RI WKH LQGH[ YDOXHV LQ VXFFHVVLYH VDPSOHV DV D IXUWKHU HIIRUW WR HVWLPDWH WKH UHOLDELOLW\ RI WKH GLYHUVLW\ PHDVXUHV REWDLQHG DIWHU PRQWKV RI WUDSSLQJ ([DPLQDWLRQ RI )LJXUH UHYHDOV WKDW IRU WKH VWXG\ SHULRG +f RQO\ EHFRPHV VWDEOH DIWHU PRQWKV RI FRQVHFXWLYH WUDSSLQJ 7KHUHIRUH LI WKH VWXG\ KDG EHHQ RI VKRUWHU GXUDWLRQ HVWLPDWHV RI VSHFLHV GLYHUVLW\ ZRXOG FRQVWLWXWH XQUHOLDEOH PHDVXUHV :+ LV RQ WKH RWKHU KDQG VDPSOH GHSHQGHQW LH ZLOO DOPRVW DOZD\V LQFUHDVH ZLWK WKH DGGLWLRQ RI QHZ VDPSOHV +RZHYHU WKH LQGH[ DV DSSOLHG WR WKH SUHVHQW GDWD VKRZHG D PXFK PRUH VWDEOH VWDWLVWLFDO EHKDYLRU )LJXUH f IRU DIWHU PRQWKV RI VXFFHVVLYH VDPSOHV LW NHSW WKH H[LVWLQJ UHODWLRQVKLSV FRQVWDQW +f RQ WKH RWKHU KDQG GHPRQVWUDWHG VRPH VWDWLVWLFDO VKLIWV HYHQ DIWHU PRQWKV RI

PAGE 117

6+$1121:,(1(5 +n &808/$7,9( 6$03/(6 /*6& 0'35 0'6& /*35 606& 6035 )LJXUH (YROXWLRQ LQ ZLWK WKH LQFUHDVH LQ WKH WKH EHKDYLRU RI WKH 6KDQQRQ:LHQHU + QXPEHU RI FXPXODWLYH VDPSOHV f LQGH[

PAGE 118

:+ ,1'(; f§ /*6& f§nf§ 0'6& 606& V 0'35 /*35 6035 )LJXUH (YROXWLRQ LQ WKH EHKDYLRU RI WKH ZHLJKWHG YHUVLRQ RI WKH 6KDQQRQ:LHQHU LQGH[ :+f ZLWK WKH LQFUHDVH LQ WKH QXPEHU RI FXPXODWLYH VDPSOHV

PAGE 119

VDPSOLQJ HYHQ WKRXJK WKHLU UHODWLRQDO WUHQG ZDV NHSW FRQVLVWHQW WKURXJKRXW WKH ODVW PRQWKV RI WKH VWXG\ )LJXUHV DQG LOOXVWUDWH D VLPLODU FRPSDULVRQ H[DPLQLQJ WKH SURSRUWLRQDO FKDQJH RI LQGLFHV IURP D SUHYLRXV VDPSOH WR WKH QH[W VDPSOH WKURXJKRXW WKH VWXG\ SHULRG $IWHU PRQWKV RI FRQVHFXWLYH WUDSSLQJ +f WHQGHG WR VWDELOL]H JHQHUDOO\ FKDQJLQJ OHVV WKDQ b IURP WKH SUHYLRXV WR WKH QH[W LQGH[ YDOXH :LWK :+ HYHQ WKRXJK LW WDNHV URXJKO\ WKH VDPH WLPH WR UHDFK D SRLQW RI VWHDG\ IOXFWXDWLRQ WKH FKDQJHV FDQ UHDFK XS WR b IURP RQH VDPSOH WR DQRWKHU RU WZLFH WKH UDWH RI +f $Q DGGLWLRQDO GLIIHUHQFH LV WKDW H[FHSW ZLWK D YHU\ VPDOO QXPEHU RI VDPSOHV :+ ZLOO DOZD\V LQFUHDVH ZLWK IXUWKHU VDPSOHV ZKLOH +f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

PAGE 120

ff§ A ULYMXY!L LQML LDL LAL LDL LXF X / 2 2 F ,YQ-U U n OL33 >UQSRRLLR &R SU UL c D R nf§8XOZn &X2L Y f f§ W L L R 2 0&f§64 r 6035 O c c L2 6IYO6& R4 )LJXUH 5DWH RI FKDQJH LQ 6KDQQRQ:LHQHU +f LQGH[ ZLWK WKH QXPEHU RI VXFFHVVLYH VDPSOHV

PAGE 121

LYO') U L LA33 LYL ?-a 0 2 c9, 28 /*V6& )LJXUH 5DWH RI FKDQJH LQ :+ GLYHUVLW\ LQGH[ ZLWK WKH QXPEHU RI VXFFHVVLYH VDPSOHV g +

PAGE 122

‘9+ ,0'Wr 3238/$7,21 6,=(6 [ f f§f§ /*6* 0'6* 606& 0'35 f§ /*33 6033 )LJXUH +\SRWKHWLFDO EHKDYLRU RI WKH :+ GLYHUVLW\ LQGH[ ZLWK FRQVWDQW LQFUHDVH LQ WRWDO SRSXODWLRQ VL]HV RI FRPPXQLWLHV 7KH SL YDOXHV VHH IRUPXOD LQ PHWKRGV VHFWLRQf ZHUH JHQHUDWHG XVLQJ UHDO GDWD IURP WKLV VWXG\

PAGE 123

3UHGLFWRUV RI &RPPXQLW\ 6WUXFWXUH 7KH ILUVW VWHS WR LGHQWLI\ SUHGLFWRU YDULDEOHV WKDW H[SODLQ YDULDWLRQ LQ VSHFLHV ULFKQHVV RU QXPEHU RI VSHFLHV 6f QXPEHU RI LQGLYLGXDOV 1,f DQG VSHFLHV GLYHUVLW\ +ff DV ZHOO DV LWV ZHLJKWHG YHUVLRQ :+f LV E\ WKH XVH RI FRUUHODWLRQ DQDO\VLV DQG UHJUHVVLRQ DQDO\VLV %\ XVLQJ FRUUHODWLRQV ZDV DEOH WR ERWK GHWHUPLQH VLJQLILFDQW DVVRFLDWLRQV EHWZHHQ GHSHQGHQW DQG LQGHSHQGHQW YDULDEOHV DV ZHOO DV LQWHUFRUUHODWLRQV EHWZHHQ KDELWDW SUHGLFWRU YDULDEOHV 7KLV LV LPSRUWDQW LQ RUGHU WR DYRLG SUREOHPV RI FROLQHDULW\ LQ VXEVHTXHQW PXOWLSOH UHJUHVVLRQ DQDO\VLV 6RNDO DQG 5RKOI .DFKLJDQ f H[SHFWHG WKDW D ODUJH QXPEHU RI KDELWDW YDULDEOHV ZRXOG EH LQWHUFRUUHODWHG EHFDXVH PDQ\ VLPLODU PHDVXUHV ZHUH UHFRUGHG $IWHU FRUUHODWLRQ FRHIILFLHQWV ZHUH GHWHUPLQHG PXOWLSOH UHJUHVVLRQ ZDV DSSOLHG WR WKH UHGXFHG GDWD LQ DQ HIIRUW WR ILQG WKH SUHGLFWRU YDULDEOHV WKDW ZRXOG H[SODLQ VLJQLILFDQW DPRXQWV RI YDULDWLRQ LQ WKH GHSHQGHQW YDULDEOHV 6 1, +f :+f $OO KDELWDW YDULDEOHV WKDW ZHUH FROOHFWHG DV SHUFHQWDJHV ZHUH DUFVLQ WUDQVIRUPHG DQG WKH UHPDLQLQJ YDULDEOHV ORJWUDQVIRUPHG WR DSSURDFK KRPRVFHGDVWLFLW\ 6RNDO DQG 5RKOI f $ 6$63& 6$6 ,QVWLWXWH &DU\ 1&f VWDWLVWLFDO SDFNDJH ZDV XVHG LQ WKH DQDO\VHV RQ 06'26 0LFURVRIW &RUSRUDWLRQf EDVHG PDFKLQHV 0XOWLSOH UHJUHVVLRQV ZHUH FDUULHG RXW ZLWK WKH 5648$5( PHWKRG PD[LPXP U LPSURYHPHQWf

PAGE 124

3ULPDU\ 9HUVXV 6HFRQGDU\ )RUHVWV 7KH ILUVW VWHS RQ WKLV DQDO\VLV ZDV WR GHWHUPLQH LI WKH KDELWDW YDULDEOHV FROOHFWHG VXSSRUWHG WKH FODVVLILFDWLRQ RI WKH IRUHVWV FRQGXFWHG SUHYLRXVO\ LQ WKH ILHOG DV SULPDU\ DQG VHFRQGDU\ 'LVFULPLQDQW DQDO\VLV ZDV XVHG WR FODVVLI\ WUDSSLQJ VWDWLRQV DV EHORQJLQJ WR HLWKHU SULPDU\ RU VHFRQGDU\ IRUHVWV 7KH DFFXUDF\ ZLWK ZKLFK WKH UHVXOWLQJ GLVFULPLQDQW IXQFWLRQ VHSDUDWHV VWDWLRQV LQ HLWKHU W\SH RI IRUHVW SURYLGHV DQ HVWLPDWH RI LWV YDOLGLW\ .DFKLJDQ f 9DOLGLW\ ZDV PHDVXUHG E\ H[DPLQLQJ ERWK WKH PDJQLWXGH RI FRUUHFW FODVVLILFDWLRQV DQG WKH FKLVTXDUH YDOXHV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK :LONVf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

PAGE 125

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f D VWXG\ LQ ZKLFK WKH REMHFWLYH ZDV WR VHSDUDWH KDELWDW VWUXFWXUDO HIIHFWV IURP WKRVH RI VSHFLHV LQWHUDFWLRQV ZLWKLQ VPDOO PDPPDO FRPPXQLWLHV RI WKH %UD]LOLDQ IORRGHG VDYDQQDV 3DQWDQDOf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

PAGE 126

5HVXOWV 'XULQJ WKH FRXUVH RI WKH VWXG\ FDSWXUHG D WRWDO RI LQGLYLGXDOV H[FOXGLQJ UHFDSWXUHVf EHORQJLQJ WR VSHFLHV RI WKHP PDUVXSLDOV DQG URGHQWV 7DEOH f 0DUVXSLDOV ZHUH E\ IDU WKH PRVW FRPPRQ VPDOO PDPPDOV LQ DOO VLWHV H[DPLQHG 0DUVXSLDOV ZHUH UHVSRQVLEOH IRU ; DQG b RI DOO LQGLYLGXDOV LQ SULPDU\ DQG VHFRQGDU\ IRUHVWV DQG b DQG b RI DOO LQGLYLGXDOV LQ VPDOO DQG ODUJH SORWV UHVSHFWLYHO\ 7KH RQO\ VLWHV LQ ZKLFK URGHQWV DSSHDU WR EH DOPRVW DV DEXQGDQW DV PDUVXSLDOV DUH LQ WKH IRUHVWV RI LQWHUPHGLDWH VL]H $SSUR[LPDWHO\ b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

PAGE 127

7DEOH 1XPEHU RI LQGLYLGXDOV RI HDFK VSHFLHV FDSWXUHG QR UHFDSWXUHV LQFOXGHGf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r r7RWDO LV WKH QXPEHU RI GLIIHUHQW VSHFLHV SRROHG IRU DOO VLWHV

PAGE 128

VHFRQGDU\ IRUHVW RQO\ DSSHDULQJ DJDLQ LQ WKH VDPSOH DW WKH ODUJH SULPDU\ DQG PHGLXP VHFRQGDU\ SORWV ZLWK RQH LQGLYLGXDO LQ HDFK 7KH ULFKHVW VLWH LQ QXPEHU RI VSHFLHV DQG QXPEHU RI LQGLYLGXDOV ZDV WKH ODUJHVW VHFRQGDU\ IRUHVW ZLWK LQGLYLGXDOV EHORQJLQJ WR VSHFLHV 7KH SRRUHU IRUHVW W\SHV LQ QXPEHU RI VSHFLHV ZHUH UHSUHVHQWHG E\ WKH VPDOO SULPDU\ IRUHVW FDWHJRU\ DQG E\ WKH ODUJH SULPDU\ FDWHJRU\ ERWK ZLWK VSHFLHVf 7KH LQWHUPHGLDWH VL]HV DQG WKH VPDOO VHFRQGDU\ IRUHVW DOO \LHOGHG QLQH VSHFLHV HDFK $OO SULPDU\ IRUHVWV KDG KLJKHU +f YDOXHV WKDQ VHFRQGDULHV DQG ZLWKLQ HDFK FODVV ODUJHU SORWV ZHUH PRUH GLYHUVH WKDQ PHGLXPVL]HG DQG WKHVH PRUH GLYHUVH WKDQ WKH VPDOO IRUHVW VLWHV ,Q 7DEOH VSHFLHV GLYHUVLW\ DV PHDVXUHG E\ +f DQG :+ LV VKRZQ IRU HDFK WUDSOLQH DV ZHOO DV WKH RYHUDOO VFRUH IRU HDFK SDUWLFXODU IRUHVW W\SH 7KH RUGHU RI 6KDQQRQ:LHQHU +f LQGLFHV IURP ORZHVW WR KLJKHVW ZDV DV IROORZV 6PDOO 3ULPDU\ 0HGLXP 3ULPDU\ /DUJH 3ULPDU\ 6PDOO 6HFRQGDU\ 0HGLXP 6HFRQGDU\ /DUJH 6HFRQGDU\ )LJXUH f 2I WKHVH WKH ILUVW WKUHH DOO VHFRQGDU\f ZHUH VLJQLILFDQWO\ GLIIHUHQW IURP HDFK RWKHU DQG HDFK IURP DOO SULPDULHV SDLUZLVH WWHVWV Sf +RZHYHU IRU WKH SULPDU\ IRUHVWV UHJDUGOHVV RI VL]H GLIIHUHQFHV ZHUH QRW VWDWLVWLFDOO\ VLJQLILFDQW :+ YDOXHV JHQHUDOO\ GHPRQVWUDWHG WKH VDPH WUHQG )LJXUH f WKH WZR IRUHVW SORWV ZLWK WKH KLJKHVW LQGLFHV ZHUH VHFRQGDU\ IRUHVWV RI PHGLXP DQG ODUJH VL]HV 7KH ORZHVW VFRUH ZDV DOVR REWDLQHG DW WKH VPDOOHVW SULPDU\ IRUHVW +RZHYHU :+ UDQNHG WKH

PAGE 129

7DEOH 6KDQQRQ:LHQHU GLYHUVLW\ LQGLFHV +f DQG ZHLJKWHG GLYHUVLW\ LQGLFHV :+f IRU HDFK RI WKH IRUHVW SORWV DQG IRU HDFK WUDQVHFW OLQH ZLWKLQ IRUHVW SORW 7 LQGLFHV IRU DOO VDPSOHV WDNHQ WRJHWKHU 6$03/(6 )25(67 3/276 $1' 75$16(&7 /,1(6 75$3/,1(6f 6PDOO 0HGLXP /DUJH 3ULPDU\ 6HFRQGDU\ 3ULPDU\ 60 35f 606&f 0' f35f + :+ + :+ + :+ 7 6HFRQGDU\ 3ULPDU\ 6HFRQGDU\ 0'6&f /*35f /*6&f + :+ + :+ + :+

PAGE 130

PHGLXP SULPDU\ IRUHVW DERYH WKH VPDOO VHFRQGDU\ ,Q DGGLWLRQ VLJQLILFDQW GLIIHUHQFHV EHWZHHQ :+ YDOXHV SDLUZLVH WWHVWV Sf ZHUH RQO\ IRXQG EHWZHHQ WKH WKUHH KLJKHVW UDQNLQJ IRUHVWV /*6& 0' 6& 0'35f DQG WKH ORZHVW UDQNLQJ SORWV 606& /*35 6035f ,I ZH VFUXWLQL]H WKH GDWD VHH 7DEOH f ZH VHH WKDW WKH UHVXOWV DUH FRQVLVWHQW ZLWK WKH VHQVLWLYLW\ RI :+ %RWK SORWV KDYH VSHFLHV RI ZKLFK DUH VKDUHG EHWZHHQ WKH WZR +RZHYHU IRU DOO EXW RQH VSHFLHV 2U\]RP\V WULQLWLDWLVf WKH PHGLXP SULPDU\ VLWH VXSSRUWV PXFK ODUJHU SRSXODWLRQ VL]HV IRU WKH LQGLYLGXDO VSHFLHV ,Q )LJXUH ZH FDQ REVHUYH WKDW LI VSHFLHV SRSXODWLRQV ZHUH DOORZHG WR LQFUHDVH DW 606& VPDOO VHFRQGDU\ IRUHVWf LWV YDOXH ZRXOG VXUSDVV WKDW RI 0'35 PHGLXP SULPDU\f E\ YLUWXH RI LWV KLJKHU HYHQQHVV EHWZHHQ VSHFLHVf FRQWULEXWLRQ WR WKH ZKROH FRPPXQLW\ ,W LV DOVR LPSRUWDQW WR QRWLFH WKDW WKH VPDOO VHFRQGDU\ IRUHVW KDV WKUHH VSHFLHV UHSUHVHQWHG E\ RQO\ RQH LQGLYLGXDO 7KH UHVXOWLQJ GLVFULPLQDQW IXQFWLRQ YDULHG LQ LWV SRZHU RI FRUUHFWO\ GLVFULPLQDWLQJ SULPDU\ DQG VHFRQGDU\ IRUHVWV WUDSSLQJ VWDWLRQV IURP D ORZ RI b VPDOO SULPDU\f WR D KLJK RI b VPDOO VHFRQGDU\ 7DEOH f *LYHQ WKDW WKH LQLWLDO SUREDELOLW\ RI HUULQJ ZDV b WKH IRUHVW ZKLFK KDG WKH KLJKHVW SHUFHQWDJH RI LQFRUUHFWO\ FODVVLILHG VWDWLRQV VWLOO KDG WKH PDMRULW\ RI WKHP ZLWKLQ WKH FRUUHFW FDWHJRU\ 7KH VPDOO SULPDU\ IRUHVW KDG WKH KLJKHVW SURSRUWLRQ RI PLVFODVVLILHG VWDWLRQV EHFDXVH RI WKH ODUJH HGJH DUHD UHODWLYH WR RWKHU IRUHVWV ,Q VXPPDU\ WKH GLVFULPLQDQW IXQFWLRQ ZDV

PAGE 131

63(&,(6 ',9(56,7< 5$1. 63(&,(6 ',9(56,7< 6+$1121:,(1(5 +n G+ :+ ,1'(; )LJXUH &RPSDULVRQ RI UDQNV RI GLYHUVLW\ LQGLFHV IRU ERWK WKH 6KDQQRQ:LHQHU +f GLYHUVLW\ LQGH[ DQG LWV ZHLJKWHG YHUVLRQ :+f 7KH \ D[LV YDOXHV UHSUHVHQW UDQNV DQG QRW WKH DFWXDO YDOXHV RI WKH GLYHUVLW\ LQGLFHV

PAGE 132

JHQHUDOO\ VXFFHVVIXO LQ GLVFULPLQDWLQJ WUDS VWDWLRQV DFURVV DOO IRUHVW VLWHV DQG LWV :LONVf ODPEGD YDOXH ZDV KLJKO\ VLJQLILFDQW Sf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f VKRZHG D QHJDWLYH DVVRFLDWLRQ ZLWK YROXPH DW WKH KHUEDFHRXV VWUDWXP '9+ U Sf DQG D SRVLWLYH RQH ZLWK YROXPH RI PLGVWRU\ YHJHWDWLRQ '90 U Sf 7KHVH WZR KDELWDW YDULDEOHV DUH SUREDEO\ QRW LQGHSHQGHQW DQG PD\ EH PHDVXULQJ WKH VDPH UHODWLRQVKLS $ QHJDWLYH DVVRFLDWLRQ ZDV IRXQG EHWZHHQ KHUEDFHRXV FRYHU +&f DQG ERWK QXPEHU RI LQGLYLGXDOV 1,f DQG WKH ZHLJKWHG GLYHUVLW\ LQGH[ :+f UHVSHFWLYHO\

PAGE 133

7DEOH 5HVXOWV RI WKH GLVFULPLQDQW DQDO\VLV VHSDUDWLQJ WUDSSLQJ VWDWLRQV LQWR SULPDU\ DQG VHFRQGDU\ IRUHVWV :LONfV ODPEGD Sf 2QO\ WZR FODVVHV ZHUH UHFRJQL]HG SULPDU\ DQG VHFRQGDU\ IRUHVW VWDWLRQVf ZLWK QR GLVFULPLQDWLRQ IRU VL]H 7KHUHIRUH LQLWLDO SUREDELOLW\ RI FODVVLILFDWLRQ LQ HLWKHU FDWHJRU\ ZDV 6PDO 3ULPDU\ 6HFRQGDU\ 0HGLXP 3ULPDU\ 6HFRQGDU\ /DUJH 3ULPDU\ 6HFRQGDU\ b &RUUHFW

PAGE 134

7DEOH 6XPPDU\ VWDWLVWLFV RI KDELWDW YDULDEOHV PHDVXUHG LQ WKH VL[ GLIIHUHQW IRUHVW SORWV $ WRWDO GHVFULSWLRQ RI WKH YDULDEOHV FDQ EH IRXQG LQ WH[W )RU DOO YDULDEOHV WKH WRWDO QXPEHU RI REVHUYDWLRQV LV HTXDO WR WKH WRWDO QXPEHU RI WUDS VWDWLRQV LQ HDFK VLWH 1 f H[FHSW ZKHUH QRWHG $OO PHDVXUHPHQWV H[FHSW VOLGLQJ VFDOHVf DUH LQ PHWHUV 6', LV LQ FHQWLPHWHUV 9$5,$%/(6 )25(67 3/276 )D]HQGD (VPHUDOGD 5LR )D]HQGD 0RQWHV &ODURV 3DUTXH (VWDGXDO &DVFD &DUDWLQJD )ORUHVWDO GR 5LR 'RFH 6PDO KD KDf 0HGLXP L KDf /DUJH KDf 3ULPDU\ 6HFRQGDU\ 3ULPDU\ 6HFRQGDU\ 3ULPDU\ 6HFRQGDU\ 6035f 606&f 0'35f 0'6&f /*35f /*6&f 0HDQ 6' 0HDQ 6' 0HDQ 6' 0HDQ 6' 0HDQ 6' 0HDQ 6' +7 2+ ++ &;& &;0 && +& '9& '90 '9+ '9 '( )/ +80 ;63 163 175 6', } }} r1 }}1

PAGE 135

U S U Sf 7KH WRDO QXPEHU RI LQGLYLGXDOV ZDV DOVR SRVLWLYHO\ DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK DYHUDJH KHLJKW RI WUHHV U SfZHLJKWHG GLYHUVLW\ LQGH[ :+f UHVSHFWLYHO\ U S U Sf 7KH WRWDO QXPEHU RI LQGLYLGXDOV ZDV DOVR SRVLWLYHO\ DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK DYHUDJH KHLJKW RI WUHHV U Sf 7KH VHFRQG W\SH RI DQDO\VLV LQYHVWLJDWHG WKH HIIHFW RI WKH KDELWDW YDULDEOHV RQ WKH YDULDWLRQ RI + :+ 6 DQG 1, EXW WKLV WLPH SULPDU\ DQG VHFRQGDU\ IRUHVWV ZHUH FRQVLGHUHG DV VHSDUDWH GDWD VHWV )LJXUH LOOXVWUDWHV KRZ WKH DQDO\VLV RI ERWK SULPDU\ DQG VHFRQGDU\ IRUHVWV WRJHWKHU FDQ EH PLVOHDGLQJ WKH FRUUHODWLRQ EHWZHHQ WKH QXPEHU RI IDOOHQ ORJV DQG +f LV QRQVLJQLILFDQW ZKHQ DOO VLWHV DUH WDNHQ WRJHWKHU +RZHYHU DPRQJ VHFRQGDU\ IRUHVW WUDSOLQHV VSHFLHV GLYHUVLW\ LV VLJQLILFDQWO\ DQG SRVLWLYHO\ DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK IDOOHQ ORJV ,Q FRQWUDVW WKH VSHFLHV GLYHUVLW\ RI SULPDU\ IRUHVW WUDSOLQHV LV QRW VLJQLILFDQWO\ FRUUHODWHG ZLWK IDOOHQ ORJV 7KHUHIRUH WKH LPSRUWDQFH RI VSHFLILF KDELWDW YDULDEOHV YDULHV EHWZHHQ SULPDU\ DQG VHFRQGDU\ IRUHVWV ,Q )LJXUH WKH SORW RI :+ DJDLQVW PHDQ QXPEHU RI SODQW VSHFLHV ;63f VKRZV WKDW HYHQ WKRXJK ERWK SULPDU\ DQG VHFRQGDU\ IRUHVWVf :+ LQGLFHV WHQG WR LQFUHDVH ZLWK WKH PHDQ QXPEHU RI SODQW VSHFLHV SUHVHQW LQ WKH KDELWDW WKH UHJUHVVLRQ IRU SULPDU\ IRUHVWV LV QRW VLJQLILFDQW

PAGE 136

6KDQQRQ:LHQHU LQGH[ )LJXUH 3ORW RI +f DJDLQVW )/ IRU VHFRQGDU\ IRUHVWV ZLWK HDFK LQGLYLGXDO GDWD SRLQW UHSUHVHQWLQJ DYHUDJHV RI D IRUHVW WUDSOLQH 7KH UHJUHVVLRQ HTXDWLRQ LV DOVR VKRZQ

PAGE 137

)LJXUH 3ORWV RI :+ DJDLQVW ;63 PHDQ QXPEHU RI WUHH VSHFLHVf ZLWK LQGLYLGXDO GDWD SRLQWV UHSUHVHQWLQJ IRUHVW WUDSOLQHV )LJXUH D VKRZV WKH UHODWLRQVKLS IRU VHFRQGDU\ IRUHVWV DQG )LJXUH E IRU SULPDU\ IRUHVWV RQO\

PAGE 138

:HLJKWHG 6KDQQRQ:LHQHU ,QGH[ :+f f§ 6(&21'$5< )25(676 :HLJKWHG 6KDQQRQ:LHQHU ,QGH[ :+f f§ 35,0$5< )25(676

PAGE 139

)LJXUH 3ORWV RI :+ DJDLQVW '9& FDQRS\ YROXPHf ZLWK HDFK LQGLYLGXDO GDWD SRLQW UHSUHVHQWLQJ D IRUHVW WUDSOLQH )LJXUH D VKRZV WKH UHJUHVVLRQ IRU VHFRQGDU\ IRUHVWV DQG E IRU SULPDU\ IRUHVWV 1RWH WKH RSSRVLWH WUHQGV LQ :+ EHWZHHQ SULPDU\ DQG VHFRQGDU\ IRUHVWV

PAGE 140

:HLJKWHG 6KDQQRQ:LHQHU ,QGH[ :+f f§ 6(&21'$5< )25(676 :HLJKWHG 6KDQQRQ:LHQHU LQGH[ :+f f§ 35,0$5< )25(676

PAGE 141

7KH SORW RI :+ DJDLQVW FDQRS\ YROXPH '9&f \LHOGV UHJUHVVLRQV ZLWK VORSHV RI GLIIHUHQW VLJQV IRU SULPDU\ DQG VHFRQGDU\ VLWHV )LJXUH f 7KH GLIIHUHQWLDO UHVSRQVH RI GLYHUVLW\ RI SULPDU\ DQG VHFRQGDU\ IRUHVWV ZDV QRW IRXQG KRZHYHU IRU DOO KDELWDW YDULDEOHV 7KH ZHLJKWHG GLYHUVLW\ LQGH[ :+f IRU ERWK SULPDU\ DQG VHFRQGDU\ IRUHVWV WHQGV WR GHFUHDVH ZLWK WKH LQFUHDVH LQ KHUEDFHRXV YROXPH '9+f ERWK \LHOGLQJ VLJQLILFDQW UHJUHVVLRQV )LJXUH f 6SHFLHV GLYHUVLW\ DV PHDVXUHG E\ WKH 6KDQQRQ:LHQHU LQGH[ +f DSSHDUV WR LQFUHDVH LQ VHFRQGDU\ IRUHVWV ZLWK KLJKHU WUHHV DQG FDQRSLHV +7 2+f ZLWK ZHOO GHYHORSHG FRQQHFWLRQV LQ PLG DQG XSSHUVWRULHV &;0 &;&f 'LYHUVLW\ LV DOVR KLJKHU LQ ZHOO VKDGHG DUHDV && '9& '90f DQG LQ WUDS VWDWLRQV FORVH WR IDOOHQ ORJV )/f +f ZDV DOVR IRXQG WR GHFUHDVH ZLWK WKH DPRXQW KHUEDFHRXV FRYHU SUHVHQW ++ '9+f 7KH VDPH JHQHUDO WUHQGV ZHUH REWDLQHG IRU VSHFLHV GLYHUVLW\ DV PHDVXUHG E\ :+ EXW ZKLFK DOVR GHPRQVWUDWHG WR LQFUHDVH LQ DUHDV ZLWK KLJK YLQH GHQVLW\ '9f 'LYHUVLW\ RI SULPDU\ IRUHVWV RQ WKH RWKHU KDQG DSSHDUV LQVHQVLWLYH WR PRVW KDELWDW YDULDEOHV PHDVXUHG RQO\ D IHZ RI ZKLFK ZHUH IRXQG WR EH FRUUHODWHG 7DEOH f 7KH DERYH UHODWLRQVKLS DOVR KHOG WKH VDPH WUHQG IRU WKH FRPSRQHQW YDULDEOHV RI WKH GLYHUVLW\ LQGLFHV LH QXPEHU RI VSHFLHV DQG QXPEHU RI LQGLYLGXDOV 7DEOH f 6SHFLHV ULFKQHVV 6f ZDV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK DOO YDULDEOHV WKDW +f ZDV IRU VHFRQGDU\ IRUHVWV

PAGE 142

)LJXUH 3ORWV RI :+ DJDLQVW '9+ KHUEDFHRXV YROXPHf ZLWK UHJUHVVLRQV IRU VHFRQGDU\ )LJXUH Df DQG SULPDU\ IRUHVWV )LJX Ef VKRZQ VHSDUDWHO\

PAGE 143

:HLJKWHG 6KDQQRQ:LHQHU ,QGH[ :+f f§ 6(&21'$5< )25(676 :HLJKWHG 6KDQQRQ:LHQHU ,QGH[ :+f f§ 35,0$5< )25(676

PAGE 144

7DEOH 6XPPDU\ RI VLJQLILFDQW FRUUHODWLRQ :HLJKWHG 6KDQQRQ:LHQHU LQ FRPPXQLW\ 1,f DQG rrr Sf FRUUHODWLRQ DQDO\VHV VKRZLQJ YDULDEOHV ZL FRHIILFLHQWV ZLWK 6KDQQRQ:LHQHU +f :+f LQGLFHV 7RWDO QXPEHU RI LQGLYLGXDOV 1XPEHU RI VSHFLHV 6f r S rr S 6HFRQGDU\ 3ULPDU\ + :+ + :+ 9$5,$%/( U 3 U 3 U S U S +7 r rr 2+ rr rr ++ r &;& rr r &;0 rrr rr && rr rrr r +& rr '9& rr r r '90 rr rr '9+ rr r '9 rr )/ r rr 163 rr +80 r

PAGE 145

7DEOH FRQWLQXHG 6HFRQGDU\ 3ULPDU\ 6 1, 6 1, 9$5,$%/( U 3 U 3 U S U 3 +7 r rr 2+ rr rrr ++ rr &;& WW WW &;0 WW WW && WW WWW W +& WW '9& WW WW W '90 WW WW '9+ WW r W )/ r 163 r rr

PAGE 146

ZLWK H[FHSWLRQ RI QXPEHU RI ORJV )/f 7RWDO QXPEHU RI LQGLYLGXDOV 1,f RI VHFRQGDULHV ZDV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK DOO KDELWDW YDULDEOHV WKDW :+ ZDV SOXV KHUEDFHRXV YROXPH '9+f ,Q FRQWUDVW WKH QXPEHU RI VSHFLHV 6f LQ SULPDU\ IRUHVWV ZDV QRW DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK DQ\ RI WKH KDELWDW YDULDEOHV PHDVXUHG 1XPEHU RI VPDOO PDPPDO LQGLYLGXDOV RI SULPDU\ FRPPXQLWLHV 1,f ZDV VLJQLILFDQWO\ DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK DOO YDULDEOHV WKDW :+ ZDV SOXV QXPEHU RI IDOOHQ ORJV )/f :H LQYHVWLJDWHG WKH SRVVLEOH DVVRFLDWLRQ EHWZHHQ DUHD VL]H DQG WKH FRPPXQLW\ SDUDPHWHUV QXPEHU RI VSHFLHV 6f QXPEHU RI LQGLYLGXDOV 1,f DQG VSHFLHV GLYHUVLW\ DV PHDVXUHG E\ +f DQG :+ 7KHUH ZHUH WKUHH PDLQ FDWHJRU\ VL]HV HDFK UHSUHVHQWHG E\ WZR IRUHVWV RQH SULPDU\ DQG DQRWKHU VHFRQGDU\ VPDOO DQG KDf PHGLXP KDf DQG ODUJH KDf ,Q DOO FDVHV ORJHDUHD VL]Hf SURYLGHG D EHWWHU ILW 7KHUH LV QR VLJQLILFDQW DVVRFLDWLRQ EHWZHHQ DUHD VL]H DQG DQ\ RI WKH FRPPXQLW\ YDULDEOHV LI SULPDU\ DQG VHFRQGDU\ IRUHVWV DUH OXPSHG WRJHWKHU +RZHYHU DUHD VL]H \LHOGHG VLJQLILFDQW FRUUHODWLRQV ZLWK +f :+ 6 DQG 1, ZKHQ VHFRQGDU\ IRUHVWV ZHUH H[DPLQHG VHSDUDWHO\ UHVSHFWLYHO\ U S U S U S U Sf 2Q WKH RWKHU KDQG QR VLJQLILFDQW WUHQGV ZHUH REVHUYHG IRU SULPDU\ IRUHVWV DORQH )LJXUH LOOXVWUDWHV WKH UHODWLRQVKLS IRXQG IRU WKH VHSDUDWH DQDO\VLV EHWZHHQ SULPDU\ DQG VHFRQGDU\ IRUHVWV

PAGE 147

:HLJKWHG 6KDQQRQ:LHQHU ,QGH[ :+f /RJ $UHD RI )RUHVW 3ORW 35,0$5< )25(676 6(&21'$5< )25(676 )LJXUH 3ORWV RI :+ DQG ORJ RI $UHD 6L]H IRU VHFRQGDU\ DQG SULPDU\ IRUHVWV 1RWH WKDW WKH UHJUHVVLRQ LV VLJQLILFDQW IRU VHFRQGDU\ IRUHVWV ZKLOH WKH RQH IRU SULPDU\ IRUHVWV LV QRW :+ RI SULPDU\ IRUHVWV GR WHQG WR LQFUHDVH IURP WKH VPDOO WR WKH PHGLXP VL]H FDWHJRU\ EXW QR FKDQJH FDQ EH QRWLFHG EHWZHHQ PHGLXP DQG ODUJH VL]H IRUHVW WUDSOLQHV

PAGE 148

3ULPDU\ IRUHVW VSHFLHV GLYHUVLW\ DV PHDVXUHG E\ :+f GRHV WHQG WR LQFUHDVH ZLWK DUHD IURP WKH VPDOO VL]H WR WKH PHGLXP VL]H FDWHJRU\ 7DEOH f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f DW VHFRQGDU\ IRUHVWV ZHUH REWDLQHG E\ XVLQJ QXPEHU RI IDOOHQ ORJV )/f DQG DUHD VL]H ZKLFK ZDV DEOH WR H[SODLQ b RI WKH YDULDWLRQ LQ VSHFLHV GLYHUVLW\ 7DEOH f )RU :+ WKH PHDQ QXPEHU RI SODQW VSHFLHV LQ WUDSSLQJ VWDWLRQ ;63f DQG DUHD VL]H WRJHWKHU H[SODLQHG ; RI WKH YDULDWLRQ $UHD VL]H DORQH H[SODLQHG b RI WKH YDULDWLRQ LQ VSHFLHV ULFKQHVV HYHQ WKRXJK FRQQHFWHGQHVV DW WKH PLGVWRU\ &;0f D YDULDEOH FRUUHODWHG ZLWK VL]H DFFRXQWHG IRU WKH DSSUR[LPDWHO\ WKH VDPH DPRXQW RI YDULDWLRQ LQ WKH QXPEHU RI VSHFLHV bf 1R PXOWLYDULDWH PRGHO IRU WKH WRWDO QXPEHU RI LQGLYLGXDOV 1,f JHQHUDWHG ZLWK WKH DERYH PHWKRG ZDV DEOH WR REWDLQ D VLJQLILFDQWO\ EHWWHU ILW WKDQ RYHUVWRU\ KHLJKW IRU 2+ DORQH U S IRU ;63 DQG DUHD U Sf 7KHUHIRUH IRU ERWK

PAGE 149

7DEOH 0XOWLSOH UHJUHVVLRQ DQDO\VHV RI 6KDQQRQ:LHQHU +f DQG :HLJKWHG 6KDQQRQ:LHQHU :+f LQGLFHV DQG LWV FRPSRQHQWV DJDLQVW KDELWDW YDULDEOHV 6 QXPEHU RI VSHFLHV RI VPDOO PDPPDOV 1, WRWDO QXPEHU RI LQGLYLGXDOV RI VPDOO PDPPDOV WUDSSHG DW HDFK WUDQVHFW OLQH 35(',&725 9$5,$%/(6 ,1 02'(/ 6HFRQGDU\ )RUHVWV U 3 'HSHQGHQW 9DULDEOH + )/ $ )/ $ 'HSHQGHQW 9DULDEOH :+ ;63 $ ;3 $ 'HSHQGHQW 9DULDEOH 6 1R +DELWDW SUHGLFWRU YDULDEOHV UHFRJQL]HG $ 'HSHQGHQW 9DULDEOH 1, ;63 $ ;63 $ 3ULPDU\ )RUHVWV U 3 'HSHQGHQW 9DULDEOH + 1R +DELWDW SUHGLFWRU YDULDEOHV UHFRJQL]HG $ Q V

PAGE 150

7DEOH FRQWLQXHG 35(',&725 9$5,$%/(6 ,1 02'(/ 6HFRQGDU\ )RUHVWV U S 'HSHQGHQW 9DULDEOH :+ '9+ '9& $ Q V 'HSHQGHQW 9DULDEOHV 1R +DELWDW SUHGLFWRU YDULDEOHV UHFRJQL]HG $ QV 'HSHQGHQW 9DULDEOH 1, )/ +& $ QV

PAGE 151

7DEOH 0XOWLSOH FRUUHODWLRQ FRHIILFLHQWV IRU KDELWDW DQG DUHD YDULDEOHV LQ UHJUHVVLRQ PRGHOV RI VSHFLHV GLYHUVLW\ IRU VHFRQGDU\ IRUHVWV 7KH b FROXPQ UHIHUV WR SHUFHQWDJH RI YDULDQFH DWWULEXWDEOH WR DUHD VL]H DQG LV HTXDO WR WKH UDWLR $UHD U+DELWDW Uf2YHUDOO U '(3(1'(17 6HFRQGDU\ )RUHVWV 9$5,$%/( 2YHUDOO U +DELWDW U $UHD U $UHD+DELWDW b + :+

PAGE 152

VSHFLHV ULFKQHVV DQG QXPEHU RI LQGLYLGXDOV WKH DQDO\VLV GLG QRW SURFHHG IXUWKHU 2Q WKH RWKHU KDQG WKH PXOWLYDULDWH UHJUHVVLRQ DQDO\VLV IRU VSHFLHV GLYHUVLW\ RI VHFRQGDU\ IRUHVWV FDQ EH IXUWKHU VHSDUDWHG LQWR LWV FRPSRQHQWV DV VKRZQ LQ 7DEOH 6KDQQRQ:LHQHU VSHFLHV GLYHUVLW\ LV EHWWHU H[SODLQHG E\ ERWK WKH KDELWDW YDULDEOH XVHG LQ WKH PRGHO DQG DUHD VL]H +RZHYHU DUHD VL]H DSSHDUV WR FRQWULEXWH WR DSSUR[LPDWHO\ b RI WKH YDULDWLRQ LQ +f LQ WKH FRPSOHWH PRGHO RU D OLWWOH PRUH WKDQ GRHV WKH KDELWDW VWUXFWXUH YDULDEOH ,Q WKH :+ PRGHO RQ WKH RWKHU KDQG DUHD DSSHDUV WR FRQWULEXWH OHVV WKDQ WKH KDELWDW YDULDEOH ;63f LQ WKH YDULDWLRQ RI WKH GHSHQGHQW YDULDEOH ;f )RU SULPDU\ IRUHVWV DUHD VL]H GLG QRW IXQFWLRQ DV D SUHGLFWRU LQ DQ\ RI WKH PRGHOV 7DEOH f 1R PXOWLYDULDWH UHJUHVVLRQ PRGHO WKDW LQFOXGHG DUHD VL]H ZDV EHWWHU DEOH WR H[SODLQ YDULDWLRQ LQ +f :+ DQG 6 WKDQ HLWKHU RI WKH SUHYLRXV KDELWDW VWUXFWXUH YDULDEOHV WKDW ZHUH VLJQLILFDQWO\ FRUUHODWHG ZLWK VSHFLHV GLYHUVLW\ 7KHUH ZDV KRZHYHU D PRGHO IRU 1, WKDW LQFOXGHG PRUH WKDQ RQH QRQFRUUHODWHG KDELWDW VWUXFWXUH YDULDEOH WKDW SURYLGHG D EHWWHU ILW WR WKH GDWD 7KLV LQFOXGHG QXPEHU RI IDOOHQ ORJV )/f DQG KHUEDFHRXV FRYHU +&f WKH IRUPHU ZLWK D SRVLWLYH SDUDPHWHU DQG WKH ODWHU ZLWK D QHJDWLYH RQH

PAGE 153

'LVFXVVLRQ 7KLV VWXG\ LQGLFDWHG WKDW PDUVXSLDOV SUHGRPLQDWH ERWK LQ WHUPV RI QXPEHU RI LQGLYLGXDOV DQG LQ ELRPDVV LQ WKH VPDOO PDPPDO IRUHVW FRPPXQLWLHV RI WKH %UD]LOLDQ $WODQWLF IRUHVW UHJLRQ 5RGHQW VSHFLHV ULFKQHVV ZDV FRPSDUDEOH WR WKDW RI PDUVXSLDOV LQ WKH ODUJHU SORWV ZKLOH VRPH URGHQW VSHFLHV ZHUH TXLWH FRPPRQ LQ WKH PHGLXP VL]HG SORWV 3UHYLRXV VWXGLHV LQ QHRWURSLFDO IRUHVWV KDYH \LHOGHG FRQWUDVWLQJ UHVXOWV /DHPPHUW HW DO f LQ WKH QRUWKHUQ SDUW RI WKH $WODQWLF IRUHVW DQG (PPRQV f DQG 0DOFROP f LQ WKH $PD]RQ UHJLRQ KDYH IRXQG URGHQWV WR RXWQXPEHU PDUVXSLDOV LQ VSHFLHV GLYHUVLW\ DQG DEXQGDQFH 6WDOOLQJV LQ SUHSf XVLQJ WKH VDPH WUDSOLQH PHWKRGV RI WKLV VWXG\ LQ WKH 5LR 'RFH 6WDWH 3DUN IRXQG WKDW PDUVXSLDOV RXWQXPEHUHG URGHQWV 1R GHILQLWH H[SODQDWLRQ LV \HW SRVVLEOH IRU WKHVH GLIIHUHQW UHVXOWV DOWKRXJK PDUVXSLDO RYHUDEXQGDQFH PD\ EH UHODWHG WR WKH SUHVHQWGD\ KLJK IUHTXHQF\ RI RFFXUUHQFH RI VHFRQG JURZWK KDELWDW LQ WKH $WODQWLF IRUHVW UHJLRQ 6HFRQG JURZWK KDV EHHQ VKRZQ WR EH PRUH SURGXFWLYH LQ WHUPV WR WKH IRRG UHVRXUFHV XVHG E\ PDUVXSLDOV &KDUOHV'RPLQLTXH HW DO f 7KLV VWXG\ KDV VKRZQ WKDW SULPDU\ IRUHVWV WHQG WR KDYH ORZHU VPDOO PDPPDO VSHFLHV GLYHUVLW\ 7DNLQJ +f DV D PHDVXUH RI VSHFLHV GLYHUVLW\ QR SULPDU\ IRUHVW SORW UHJDUGOHVV RI VL]H ZDV PRUH GLYHUVH WKDQ DQ\ RI WKH VHFRQGDU\ VLWHV 7KH ORZHVW VSHFLHV ULFKQHVV DQG GLYHUVLW\ ZDV UHFRUGHG IRU D VLWH ZKLFK LQ VSLWH RI LWV ODUJH VL]H

PAGE 154

ZDV PRVWO\ SULPDU\ LQ QDWXUH 7KH UHVXOWV DOVR LQGLFDWHG WKDW KLJKHU VSHFLHV ULFKQHVV DQG GLYHUVLW\ DUH IRXQG LQ VHFRQGDU\ IRUHVW WKDW DUH RI ODUJH VL]H VKRXOG VWUHVV WKDW WKHVH DUH UHODWLYHO\ ROGHUJURZWK VHFRQGDU\ IRUHVWV DYHUDJLQJ DERXW \HDUV ROG &KDUOHV'RPLQLTXH HW DO f IRXQG WKDW WKH PDUVXSLDO SDUW RI D FRPPXQLW\ LQ )UHQFK *X\DQD LV PXFK PRUH GLYHUVH DQG DEXQGDQW LQ VHFRQGDU\ JURZWK ,VDELU\H%DVXWD DQG .DVHQHQH f DOVR IRXQG URGHQW VSHFLHV GLYHUVLW\ DQG DEXQGDQFHV WR EH KLJKHU LQ VHOHFWLYHO\ IHOOHG IRUHVWV ZKHQ FRPSDUHG ZLWK UHODWLYHO\ XQGLVWXUEHG SULPDU\ YHJHWDWLRQ 5HFHQW VWXGLHV LQ \RXQJHU IRUHVWV OHVV WKDQ \HDUVf LQGLFDWH WKDW VSHFLHV ULFKQHVV DQG GLYHUVLW\ DOVR GHFUHDVH LQ YHU\ HDUO\ JURZWK IRUHVWV )RQVHFD HW DO f 7KHVH IRUHVWV DUH FKDUDFWHUL]HG E\ HYHQDJHG WUHH VWDQGV ZKLFK WHQG WR EH VWUXFWXUDOO\ KRPRJHQHRXV 7KHVH UHVXOWV DUH LQ DFFRUG ZLWK RWKHU VWXGLHV RI GLYHUVLW\ DQG RI SODQW FRPPXQLW\ VXFFHVVLRQ 7KH\ DOO KDYH LQGLFDWHG WKDW FOLPD[ FRPPXQLWLHV DUH IRXQG WR EH OHVV GLYHUVH WKDQ VRPH \RXQJHU VWDJH SURYLGHG WKH QDWXUH RI WKH GLVWXUEDQFH LV QRW RI H[WUHPH IUHTXHQF\ RU LQWHQVLW\ &RQQHOO 6RX]D %URNDZ *OLW]HQVWHLQ HW DO f $V +RUQ SDJH f KDV VWDWHG 2QO\ RQH SDWWHUQ RI GLYHUVLW\ LQ VXFFHVVLRQ VKRXOG EH QHDUO\ XQLYHUVDO ,Q D VXFFHVVLRQ WKDW LV QRW VXEMHFW WR H[WHQVLYH DQG FKURQLF GLVWXUEDQFH WKH GLYHUVLW\ RI WKH FOLPD[ PXVW EH ORZHU WKDQ WKDW RI VRPH SUHFHGLQJ VWDJH

PAGE 155

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f :KLOH ZHOO GHYHORSHG KHUEDFHRXV YHJHWDWLRQ LV XVXDOO\ DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK VHFRQG JURZWK KLJKHU WUHHV DUH QRW +RZHYHU RQ D VWDWLRQ WR VWDWLRQ EDVLV DYHUDJH KHLJKW DQG YROXPH RI KHUEDFHRXV YHJHWDWLRQ RI VHFRQGDU\ IRUHVWV DUH QRW QHFHVVDULO\ KLJKHU WKDQ LQ SULPDU\ RQHV VHH 7DEOH f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f DQG QXPEHU RI VSHFLHV LQ SULPDU\ IRUHVWV

PAGE 156

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f IRXQG 3URHFKLPYV LQ FHQWUDO $PD]RQLD KLJKO\ DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK IDOOHQ ORJV LQ ZKLFK WKH\ ORRN IRU UHIXJH DQG XVH H[WHQVLYHO\ IRU ORFRPRWLRQ VHH DOVR &KDSWHU f 0RUHRYHU 0LOHV HW DO f DOVR IRXQG 3URHFKLP\V XVLQJ IDOOHQ ORJV DV VXEVWUDWH IRU ORFRPRWLRQ DQG WDNLQJ UHIXJH LQ KROORZ ORJV 7KH EHKDYLRUDO UHVSRQVH XSRQ UHOHDVH RI PRVW RI WKH VPDOO PDPPDO VSHFLHV LQ WKLV VWXG\ LQGLFDWHG WKDW JDSV XQGHU IDOOHQ WUXQNV DUH D SUHIHUUHG ORFDWLRQ IRU DQ HVFDSLQJ LQGLYLGXDO %XW VLQFH NQRZOHGJH RI WKH QDWXUDO KLVWRU\ RI WKHVH VSHFLHV LV VWLOO VXSHUILFLDO WKH H[DFW UROH RI IDOOHQ ORJV

PAGE 157

UHPDLQV DQ RSHQ TXHVWLRQ 1RQHWKHOHVV LW LV IHOW WKDW WKH SUHVHQFH RI ORJV RQ IRUHVW JDSV PD\ EH FUXFLDO IRU WKH PDLQWHQDQFH RI 3URHFKLP\V 6HYHUDO VWXGLHV KDYH VKRZQ WKDW VSHFLHV FRPSRVLWLRQV DQG UHODWLYH DEXQGDQFHV RI VPDOO PDPPDO FRPPXQLWLHV FDQ EH SDUWLDOO\ H[SODLQHG E\ KDELWDW VWUXFWXUH DQG KHWHURJHQHLW\ 5RVHQ]ZHLJ DQG :LQDNXU 0f&ORVNH\ 'XHVHU DQG 6KXJDUW $XJXVW /DFKHU HW DO LQ SUHVV /DFKHU DQG $OKR LQ SUHVVf %LUG FRPPXQLW\ VWXGLHV KDYH DOVR UHYHDOHG WKHVH FRUUHODWLRQV -RKQVRQ -DPHV DQG :DUQHU /\QFK DQG :KLJKDP f 2WKHU VWXGLHV KDYH IRFXVVHG RQ DUHD VL]H DV D GHWHUPLQDQW RI PDPPDOLDQ LQVXODU VSHFLHV ULFKQHVV 'XHVHU DQG %URZQ /RPROLQR 0DOFROP f $ SUREOHP IRU ERWK DSSURDFKHV LV WKDW VHYHUDO KDELWDW YDULDEOHV FRYDU\ ZLWK DUHD VL]H DQG LW LV RIWHQ GLIILFXOW WR VHSDUDWH WKH SXUH RU G\QDPLF HIIHFWV RI DUHD VHQVX 0DF$UWKXU DQG :LOVRQ f IURP WKH KDELWDW VWUXFWXUH TXHVWLRQ =LPPHUPDQ DQG %LHUUHJDDUG f XVLQJ WUHH IURJ GDWD IURP $PD]RQ IRUHVW IUDJPHQWV :HDYHU DQG .HOOPDQ f ZLWK ELUGV DQG :HVWPDQ f SODQW DVVRFLDWLRQV DOO KDYH HPSLULFDOO\ ZDUQHG DJDLQVW WKH XQTXDOLILHG XVH RI LVODQG ELRJHRJUDSKLFDO GHULYDWLRQV 6RPH VWXGLHV KDYH EHHQ VXFFHVVIXO LQ VHSDUDWLQJ RU DW OHDVW FRQWUROOLQJ IRU DUHD VL]H DQG KDELWDW VWUXFWXUH %XFNOH\ %RHFNOHQ f ,Q KLV PDQJURYH LVODQG H[SHULPHQWV ZLWK DUWKURSRG FRPPXQLWLHV 6LPEHUORII f ZDV DEOH WR LGHQWLI\ YDULDEOHV UHODWHG WR KDELWDW VWUXFWXUDO GLYHUVLW\ WKDW ZHUH DEOH WR H[SODLQ VRPH RI WKH YDULDWLRQ LQ WKH QXPEHU RI VSHFLHV DQG WKDW ZHUH LQGHSHQGHQW RI LVODQG VL]H

PAGE 158

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f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f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

PAGE 159

FRPPXQLWLHV GRPLQDWHG E\ D IHZ VSHFLHV )XUWKHUPRUH LW LV VXVSHFWHG WKDW YHU\ IHZ VPDOO PDPPDO VSHFLHV RI WKH %UD]LOLDQ $WODQWLF UHJLRQ DQG SHUKDSV HOVHZKHUH LQ WKH WURSLFV GHSHQG RQ FOLPD[ IRUHVWV &RUURERUDWLQJ WKLV K\SRWKHVLV ZLWK WKH H[FHSWLRQ RI RQH VSHFLHV UHSUHVHQWHG E\ RQH LQGLYLGXDO DOO VSHFLHV RI WKH SULPDU\ FRPPXQLWLHV H[DPLQHG KHUH ZHUH DOVR UHFRUGHG HOVHZKHUH LQ VHFRQGDULHV 0RUHRYHU VHYHQ VSHFLHV FRXOG RQO\ EH IRXQG LQ VHFRQGDU\ VHWWLQJV D IXUWKHU LQGLFDWLRQ WKDW PLGOHYHO VXFFHVVLRQ VWDJHV DUH EHWWHU DEOH WR PDLQWDLQ D ODUJHU GLYHUVLW\ DW WKH ORFDO OHYHO ,VDELU\H%DVXWD DQG .DVHQHQH f GHWHUPLQHG WKDW DOO EXW RQH VSHFLHV SUHVHQW LQ PDWXUH $IULFDQ IRUHVWV ZHUH DOVR UHSUHVHQWHG LQ GLVWXUEHG IRUHVWV 6LPLODUO\ QR YHUWHEUDWH VSHFLHV RI WKH :HVWHUQ &DVFDGHV RI WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV KDV EHHQ VKRZQ WR GZHOO H[FOXVLYHO\ RQ PDWXUH IRUHVWV +DUULV f DOWKRXJK VRPH VSHFLHV VXFK DV WKH VSRWWHG RZO DQG $UERULPXV PD\ EH PRUH GHSHQGHQW RQ ROG IRUHVW VWDQGV (LVHQEHUJ SHUV FRPP f $Q DOWHUQDWLYH H[SODQDWLRQ WR WKH UHVXOWV REWDLQHG KHUH ZRXOG EH WKDW WKH DUERUHDO WUDSSLQJ PHWKRGV ZHUH QRW DEOH WR DGHTXDWHO\ UHSUHVHQW D SRVVLEOH XQLTXH SULPDU\ IRUHVW IDXQD WKDW FRXOG LQKDELW KLJKHU YHJHWDWLRQ VWUDWD 7KLV GRHV QRW VHHP WR EH WKH FDVH 6WDOOLQJV LQ SUHSf KDV WUDSSHG H[WHQVLYHO\ LQ KLJKHU VWUDWD RI WZR IRUHVWV RI WKH 5LR 'RFH 3DUN +LV VDPSOH GLG QRW \LHOG DQ\ DGGLWLRQDO VSHFLHV WKDQ WKH RQHV UHSRUWHG IRU WKLV VWXG\ HYHQ WKRXJK VRPH RI WKH PRUH DUERUHDO PDUVXSLDOV 0DUPRVD FLQHUHD DQG &DOXURP\V SKLODQGHUf ZHUH RYHUO\ UHSUHVHQWHG LQ UHODWLRQ WR JURXQG WUDSSLQJ $Q H[FHSWLRQ PD\ EH

PAGE 160

WKH DUERUHDO VSLQ\ UDW (FK\P\V VS ZKLFK DFFRUGLQJ WR 0LOHV HW DO f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f 6LQFH RXW RI WKH VPDOO PDPPDO VSHFLHV GHPRQVWUDWH YDULDEOH GHJUHHV RI FOLPELQJ DELOLW\ VHH &KDSWHU f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

PAGE 161

H[WLQFWLRQV IURP SDUWLFXODU FRPPXQLWLHV 7KH VHFRQG IDFWRU LQFUHDVHV KDELWDW KHWHURJHQHLW\ ERWK LQ UHODWLRQ WR SULPDU\ IRUHVW VWUXFWXUH DQG DOVR E\ DV JDSV RWKHU RSHQLQJV WHQG WR GLIIHU IURP RQH DQRWKHU 6RX]D f WKH LQFUHDVH LQ WKH QXPEHU RI GLVWLQFW KDELWDWV WKDW EHFRPH DYDLODEOH 7KLV OLQH RI UHDVRQLQJ OLQNV ERWK WKH KDELWDW VWUXFWXUH DQG GLYHUVLW\ WKHRU\ RI :LOOLDPV f DQG WKH 0DF$UWKXU t :LOVRQ H[WLQFWLRQFRORQL]DWLRQ G\QDPLF PRGHO ZLWKRXW WKH QHHG WR LQYDOLGDWH HLWKHU RQH RI WKHP 6SHFLHV GLYHUVLW\ RI SULPDU\ IRUHVWV FRPPXQLWLHV RQ WKH RWKHU KDQG GXH WR WKHLU UHODWLYHO\ ODUJHU KRPRJHQHLW\ SHU XQLW DUHD DQG WKH DEVHQFH RI GHYHORSHG PLGVWRU\ LV OHVV FDSDEOH RI ORFDOO\ UHVSRQGLQJ WR FKDQJHV LQ DUHD VL]H 3UREDEO\ YHU\ ODUJH FKDQJHV LQ DUHD VL]H RU VDPSOLQJ HIIRUWf ZRXOG EH QHFHVVDU\ WR QRWLFH WKHVH LQIOXHQFHV $OWKRXJK SURGXFWLYLW\ RI VPDOO PDPPDO UHVRXUFHV ZDV QRW PHDVXUHG LW LV IHOW WKDW LW FDQ DOVR H[HUW D FHUWDLQ GHJUHH RI LQIOXHQFH RQ FRPPXQLW\ SDUDPHWHUV 6HFRQG JURZWK YHJHWDWLRQ FDQ SRVVLEO\ EH PRUH SURGXFWLYH IRU PDUVXSLDOV VHH &KDUOHV'RPLQLTXH f DV ZHOO DV IRU URGHQWV ,I WKLV LV WKH FDVH RQH PLJKW H[SHFW WKDW WKH FRQVHTXHQW UHVSRQVH WR DUHD VL]H ZRXOG EH PXFK PRUH QRWLFHDEOH LQ VHFRQGDU\ WKDQ LQ SULPDU\ IRUHVWV 6RPH SULPDU\ SURGXFWLYLW\ PHDVXUHV KDYH EHHQ IRXQG WR LQFUHDVH VSHFLHV GLYHUVLW\ LQ SODQW FRPPXQLWLHV +RUQ f 5HFHQWO\ +XQWO\ DQG ,QRX\H f VXJJHVWHG WKDW IRU D UHODWLYHO\ VLPSOH VPDOO PDPPDO FRPPXQLW\ RI FHQWUDO 0LQQHVRWD PHDVXUHV RI SULPDU\ SURGXFWLYLW\ VXFK DV QLWURJHQ FRQWHQW PD\ SOD\ D UROH LQ LQFUHDVLQJ

PAGE 162

VSHFLHV GLYHUVLW\ DQG DEXQGDQFHV 6LPLODUO\ &KDUOHV'RPLQLTXH HW DO f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f HVSHFLDOO\ LQ WKH WURSLFV LV VWLOO TXLWH FRPPRQ LQ WKH OLWHUDWXUH (YHQ WKRXJK LW LV QRW ZLVH WR H[WUDSRODWH WKH UHVXOWV RI WKLV VWXG\ ZKLFK IRFXVHG RQ RQO\ RQH JXLOG WR RWKHU PDPPDOV RI WKH WURSLFDO UHJLRQ LW LV SRVVLEOH WR VD\ WKDW VPDOO PDPPDO VSHFLHV ULFKQHVV DQG GLYHUVLW\ RI WKH IRUHVWV H[DPLQHG KHUH DUH DW WKHLU KLJKHVW LQ PLGJURZWK VHFRQGDU\ IRUHVWV 7KH UROH RI HGJH HIIHFWV RQ WHPSHUDWH FRPPXQLWLHV :HDYHU DQG .HOOPDQ f DQG WKH VXJJHVWLRQ WKDW VRPH OHYHO RI GLVWXUEDQFH LV QHFHVVDU\ IRU PDLQWDLQLQJ KLJK VSHFLHV GLYHUVLW\ HYHQ LQ WURSLFDO FRPPXQLWLHV &RQQHOO .DUU

PAGE 163

f DUH QRZ UHFHLYLQJ LQFUHDVLQJ VXSSRUW IURP ILHOG GDWD +RZHYHU /RYHMR\ HW DO f KDYH IRXQG WKDW WKH ELUG IDXQD RI WKH HGJHV RI VPDOO LVRODWHG UHVHUYHG LQ WKH $PD]RQ EDVLQ WHQG WRZDUGV D GHFUHDVH LQ VSHFLHV GLYHUVLW\ DQG UHODWLYH DEXQGDQFHV ZKLOH 0DOFROP f GLG QRW ILQG DQ\ FRQFOXVLYH HYLGHQFH IRU WKH VPDOO PDPPDO FRPPXQLWLHV RI WKHVH VDPH UHVHUYHV )XUWKHUPRUH VRPH SULPDWH VSHFLHV PD\ QRW VXUYLYH LI WKH PRGH RI KDELWDW DOWHUDWLRQ LV VXFK DV WR GUDVWLFDOO\ UHGXFH LPSRUWDQW IRRG UHVRXUFHV -RKQV DQG 6NRUXSD f DOWKRXJK PRGHUDWHO\ GLVWXUEHG IRUHVWV DUH QRQHWKHOHVV FDSDEOH RI PDLQWDLQLQJ PRVW UDLQ IRUHVW SULPDWHV 7KHVH FRQWUDVWLQJ UHVXOWV VKRXOG PDNH XV FDUHIXO DERXW JHQHUDOL]DWLRQV VSHFLDOO\ EHWZHHQ GLIIHUHQW JXLOGV DQG WD[D 7KH ILQGLQJV RI WKLV VWXG\ DUH DOVR SHUWLQHQW WR WKH GHFDGH ORQJ 6/266 6LQJOH /DUJH RU 6HYHUDO 6PDOO 5HVHUYHVf GHEDWH RQ UHVHUYH SODQQLQJ 'LDPRQG 6LPEHUORII DQG $EHOH 6LPEHUORII 4XLQQ DQG +DVWLQJV f KDYH GHWHUPLQHG WKDW DOO IRXU IRUHVW SDWFKHV RI VPDOO DQG PHGLXP VL]H DQG KDf WRJHWKHU \LHOGHG VSHFLHV ZKLOH WKH VLQJOH ODUJH IRUHVW RI VHFRQGDU\ QDWXUH DORQH VXSSRUWHG VPDOO PDPPDO VSHFLHV 7DEOH f 7KHUHIRUH WKH HYLGHQFH ZLWK VPDOO PDPPDOV VXSSRUWV WKH FRQWHQWLRQ WKDW ODUJHU SDWFKHV GR VXSSRUW KLJKHU VSHFLHV GLYHUVLW\ SHU XQLW DUHD WKDQ D FROOHFWLRQ RI VPDOOHU UHVHUYHV VKRXOG VWUHVV WKDW WKH DUJXPHQW IRU PXOWLSOH UHVHUYHV LV XVXDOO\ FRQGXFWHG ZLWK WKH LGHD WKDW WKH DGGHG DUHD RI WKHVH UHVHUYHV LV VLPLODU LQ VL]H WR WKDW RI WKH ODUJH XQLW EHLQJ FRPSDUHG ZKLFK LV FOHDUO\ QRW WKH FDVH KHUH +RZHYHU VLQFH DOO

PAGE 164

UHVHUYHV ZHUH VDPSOHG ZLWK WKH VDPH WUDSSLQJ HIIRUW DQG RYHU VDPSOLQJ DUHDV RI WKH VDPH VL]H KDf WKH FRPSDULVRQ LV VWLOO PHDQLQJIXO :H KDYH WR FRQVLGHU WKDW VPDOOHU UHVHUYHV WRJHWKHU WXUQHG RXW VSHFLHV XVLQJ IRXU VHWV RI WUDSOLQHV KDf LQ FRQWUDVW ZLWK VSHFLHV LQ D VLQJOH VHW KDf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

PAGE 165

&+$37(5 7+( 5(/$7,9( 52/( 2) +$%,7$7 6(/(&7,21 &203(7,7,21 $1' 35('$725 35(6685( 21 7+( 6758&785( 2) 7523,&$/ )25(67 60$// 0$00$/ &20081,7,(6 ,QWURGXFWLRQ 6RPH WKHRUHWLFDO HFRORJLVWV KDYH H[SODLQHG WKDW WKH KLJK VSHFLHV GLYHUVLW\ RI WURSLFDO IRUHVW FRPPXQLWLHV LV UHODWHG WR UHGXFHG OHYHO RI LQWHUVSHFLILF FRPSHWLWLRQ EURXJKW DERXW DPRQJ RWKHU WKLQJV E\ KDELWDW RU VSDWLDO VHJUHJDWLRQ 0DF$UWKXU 3LDQND f $V WURSLFDO IRUHVWV DUH PRUH VSDWLDOO\ KHWHURJHQHRXV DQG GLVSOD\ D KLJKHU OHYHO RI VWDELOLW\ FRPPXQLWLHV ZRXOG FRQVLVW PRVWO\ RI VSHFLDOLVW .VHOHFWHG VSHFLHV GLVSOD\LQJ YHU\ OLPLWHG QLFKH RYHUODS IRU D UHYLHZ VHH %RXUOLHUH f 5RVHQ]ZHLJ DQG :LQDNXU f LQ D ZLGHO\ TXRWHG VWXG\ KDYH LPSOLFDWHG WKH UHGXFWLRQ LQ KDELWDW RYHUODS LQ GHVHUW URGHQWV DV PHDQV RI SURPRWLQJ FRH[LVWHQFH LQ FRPSHWLWLYH HQYLURQPHQWV 2WKHU VPDOO PDPPDO VWXGLHV KDYH DUULYHG DW VLPLODU FRQFOXVLRQV LQ VHYHUDO QRQDULG KDELWDWV 0f&ORVNH\ 'XHVHU DQG 6KXJDUW 3ULFH 'XHVHU DQG +DOOHWW +DOOHWW +DOOHWW HW DO /DFKHU HW DO LQ SUHVVf +RZHYHU QRQH ZHUH FRQGXFWHG LQ D WURSLFDO IRUHVW VHWWLQJ 6WXGLHV RI WURSLFDO VPDOO PDPPDO FRPPXQLWLHV KDYH \LHOGHG PL[HG UHVXOWV 0DOFROP f FRPSDUHG VPDOO PDPPDO FRPPXQLW\ VWUXFWXUH RI

PAGE 166

GLIIHUHQW VLWHV LQ QHRWURSLFDO IRUHVWV RI FHQWUDO $PD]RQLD EXW GLG QRW UHFRJQL]H KDELWDW FRUUHODWHV RI GLIIHUHQWLDO VSHFLHV DEXQGDQFHV 2Q WKH RWKHU KDQG GLIIHUHQWLDO XVH RI KDELWDW E\ WURSLFDO GLGHOSKLG PDUVXSLDOV LV DSSDUHQWO\ LPSOLFDWHG LQ DOORZLQJ V\PSDWULF VSHFLHV WR FRH[LVW 2f&RQQHOO &KDUOHV'RPLQLTXH f $XJXVW f KDV DOVR VKRZQ WKDW IRU WKH UHODWLYHO\ SRRU VPDOO PDPPDO WURSLFDO FRPPXQLW\ RI WKH 9HQH]XHODQ OODQRV FHUWDLQ KDELWDW YDULDEOHV ZHUH FRUUHODWHG ZLWK WKH UHODWLYH DEXQGDQFH RI VRPH VPDOO PDPPDO VSHFLHV 6\PSDWULF VSHFLHV IRXQG LQ D JDOOHU\ IRUHVW RI WKH %UD]LOLDQ FHUUDGR KDYH DOVR VKRZQ GLIIHUHQFHV LQ KDELWDW SUHIHUHQFH 1LWLNPDQ DQG 0DUHV f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f *LYHQ WKDW VSHFLHV ULFKQHVV DQG GLYHUVLW\ LQFUHDVH LQ VHFRQGDU\ IRUHVWV DQG DOVR LQ IRUHVWV RI LQFUHDVLQJ VL]H WKH SUHVHQW VWXG\ ZLOO IRFXV RQ WKH IROORZLQJ TXHVWLRQV $V GLYHUVLW\ LV ERWK GHILQHG E\ WKH WRWDO QXPEHU RI VSHFLHV DQG WKHLU UHODWLYH FRQWULEXWLRQV WR WKH FRPPXQLW\ +DLU f FDQ WKH

PAGE 167

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f DQG LQVWHDG EH PRUH FORVHO\ OLQNHG WR WKH KLJKHU SUHGDWRU SUHVVXUH RFFXUULQJ LQ ODUJHU IRUHVWV )RU ERWK SODQWV DQG DQLPDOV VHOHFWLYH SUHGDWLRQ RI PRUH DEXQGDQW VSHFLHV KDV EHHQ VXJJHVWHG DV D SRVVLEOH PHFKDQLVP RI SURPRWLQJ FRPPXQLW\ GLYHUVLW\ DW D ORFDO OHYHO 3DLQH +DUSHU 0DF$UWKXU &RQQHOO f 7KH K\SRWKHVLV ZDV RULJLQDOO\ SXW IRUZDUG E\ 3DLQH SDJH f /RFDO VSHFLHV GLYHUVLW\ LV GLUHFWO\ UHODWHG ZLWK WKH HIILFLHQF\ ZLWK ZKLFK SUHGDWRUV SUHYHQW WKH PRQRSROL]DWLRQ RI WKH PDMRU HQYLURQPHQWDO UHTXLVLWHV E\ RQH VSHFLHV

PAGE 168

7KLV K\SRWKHVLV KRZHYHU KDV QHYHU EHHQ WHVWHG LQ PDPPDOLDQ FRPPXQLWLHV HYHQ WKRXJK WKHUH KDYH EHHQ VXJJHVWLRQV WKDW SUHGDWLRQ PD\ EH UHVSRQVLEOH IRU WKH H[WLQFWLRQ RI VSHFLHV ZLWKLQ VRPH DYLDQ JXLOGV ZKQH DUHD VL]H UHVWULFWLRQ H[LVWV .DUU .DUU DQG )UHHPDUN /RLVHOOH DQG +RSSHV f 9HU\ IHZ VWXGLHV KDYH EHHQ FRQGXFWHG RQ WKH HFRORJ\ RI HDVWHUQ %UD]LOLDQ PDPPDOV 7KH PRVW FRPSOHWH ZRUN RQ VPDOO PDPPDO FRPPXQLWLHV RI WKH $WODQWLF IRUHVW LV QRZ \HDUV ROG 'DYLV f ZKLOH WKH PDMRULW\ RI VWXGLHV ZHUH FRQILQHG WR YHU\ JHQHUDO QDWXUDO KLVWRU\ RU WD[RQRPLF QRWHV RQ LQGLYLGXDO VSHFLHV HJ /DHPPHUW 0RRMHQ $YLOD3LUHV DQG *RXYHD f 7KHVH VWXGLHV KDYH DOO LQGLFDWHG WKDW FRPPXQLWLHV RI VPDOO PDPPDOV LQ WKH $WODQWLF IRUHVW DUH XQXVXDOO\ ULFK LQ QXPEHU RI VSHFLHV DQG WKH OHYHO RI HQGHPLVP LV TXLWH KLJK $ KD VDPSOH LQ D 5LR 'RFH 3DUN VHFRQGDU\ IRUHVW \LHOGHG DV PXFK DV VPDOO PDPPDO VSHFLHV VHH &KDSWHU f 7KLV ULFKQHVV FHUWDLQO\ SURSLWLDWHV FRPSDULVRQV RI GLIIHUHQW VPDOO PDPPDO FRPPXQLWLHV LQ WKDW UHJLRQ 6PDOO PDPPDOV DUH GHILQHG KHUH DV PDUVXSLDO DQG URGHQW VSHFLHV ZLWK DYHUDJH DGXOW ERG\ VL]H RI OHVV WKDQ JUDPV 5RGHQWV DQG PDUVXSLDOV DUH DVVXPHG WR UHSUHVHQW DQ LGHQWLILDEOH JXLOG ZLWKLQ WKH EURDGHU PDPPDOLDQ FRPPXQLW\ 7KH\ DUH DOO UHODWLYHO\ VKRUWOLYHG DUH PRVWO\ QRFWXUQDO KDYH ZLGH GLHW RYHUODSV DQG DUH QRW FRQILQHG WR WKH FDQRS\

PAGE 169

0DWHULDOV DQG 0HWKRGV 6WXG\ 6LWHV 7KH HDVWHUQ UHJLRQ RI WKH 6RXWK $PHULFDQ FRQWLQHQW HQFRPSDVVHV WKH PDLQ YHJHWDWLRQ IRUPDWLRQ NQRZQ DV WKH %UD]LOLDQ $WODQWLF IRUHVW :LWKLQ WKH 6RXWK $PHULFDQ FRQWLQHQW WKH DUHD LV UHFRJQL]HG DV KDYLQJ ]RRJHRJUDSKLF LGHQWLW\ 0XOOHU f ,Q LWV SULPHYDO VWDWH WKH YHJHWDWLRQ RI WKLV FRDVWDO PRXQWDLQRXV UHJLRQ ZDV PRVWO\ FRPSRVHG RI WDOO QRQGHFLGXRXV WUHHV FKDUDFWHULVWLF RI WURSLFDO HYHUJUHHQ IRUHVWV +XHFN f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

PAGE 170

LQ DQG ZDV PRVWO\ FRPSOHWHG E\ WKH HDUO\ V 2QH DSSUR[LPDWHO\ KD SDWFK NQRZQ DV /DJRD )ULDf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f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f ([FHSW IRU LWV H[WHQVLYH

PAGE 171

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

PAGE 172

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

PAGE 173

+DELWDW 9DULDEOHV $ GHWDLOHG GHVFULSWLRQ RI WKH PHWKRGV XVHG LQ FROOHFWLQJ WKH KDELWDW YDULDEOHV LV SUHVHQWHG LQ &KDSWHU $W HDFK WUDSSLQJ VWDWLRQ WKH IROORZLQJ YDULDEOHV ZHUH UHFRUGHG 3HUFHQW FDQRS\ FRYHU &&f DERYH WUDS VWDWLRQ 3HUFHQW KHUEDFHRXV FRYHU +&f DURXQG FHQWHU RI WUDS VWDWLRQ ,QWHUFRQQHFWHGQHVV RI FDQRSLHV &;&f UHSUHVHQWHG E\ EUDQFK WR EUDQFK FRQWDFW RU FDQRS\ WR FDQRS\ OLQN WKURXJK YLQHV ,QWHUFRQQHFWHGQHVV RI PLGVWRU\ &;0f 9ROXPH DW FDQRS\ KHLJKW '9&f UHSUHVHQWLQJ VSDUVH YHJHWDWLRQ GHQVH YHJHWDWLRQ 9ROXPH DW PLGVWRU\ KHLJKW '90f 9ROXPH RI KHUEDFHRXV YHJHWDWLRQ '9+f 9LQH GHQVLW\ '9f (SLSK\WH GHQVLW\ '(f )DOOHQ ORJV ZLWKLQ RU LQ FORVH YLFLQLW\ RI WUDS VWDWLRQ )/f /LWWHU YROXPH DW VRLO VXUIDFH +80f ,Q DGGLWLRQ WR WKHVH RWKHU KDELWDW YDULDEOHV ZHUH TXDQWLWDWLYHO\ PHDVXUHG 2YHUVWRU\ KHLJKW 2+f WR WKH QHDUHVW RQHWHQWK RI PHWHU +HUEDFHRXV KHLJKW ++f GHWHUPLQHG DV WKH PRVW UHSUHVHQWDWLYH KHLJKW FDWHJRU\ DW D WUDS VWDWLRQ DOVR WR WKH QHDUHVW RQHWHQWK RI PHWHU

PAGE 174

'%+ RI DOO ZRRG\ SODQWV ZLWK '%+ JUHDWHU WKDQ FP WR WKH QHDUHVW FHQWLPHWHU 7KH FRPSRVLWH YDULDEOH 6',$0 LV UHSUHVHQWHG E\ WKH VXP RI DOO '%+V DW D WUDS VWDWLRQ +7 RU WKH DYHUDJH KHLJKW RI DOO WUHHV DW WUDS VWDWLRQ ZLWK '%+ JUHDWHU WKDQ FP WR WKH QHDUHVW PHWHU 175 RU QXPEHU RI WUHHV DW VWDWLRQ ZLWK '%+ JUHDWHU WKDQ FP 163 WKH QXPEHU RI ZRRG\ SODQW VSHFLHV DW WUDS VWDWLRQ %3 RU SUHVHQFH f RU DEVHQFH f RI SDOPV 7% RU SUHVHQFH f RU DEVHQFH f RI EDPERR 6WDWLVWLFDO 0HWKRGV DQG 'DWD $QDO\VLV +DELWDW VHOHFWLRQ +DELWDW VHOHFWLYLW\ LV IUHTXHQWO\ PHDVXUHG XVLQJ HLWKHU PXOWLYDULDWH GHVFULSWLRQV RI D VSHFLHVf KDELWDW %RHFNOHQ IRU DQ DQDORJRXV GLVFXVVLRQ XVLQJ V\VWHPDWLF GDWD VHH DOVR :LOOLJ HW DO f RU HPSKDVL]LQJ XQLYDULDWH FRUUHODWHV ZKLFK VRPHWLPHV PD\ VHUYH DV SUHGLFWRUV RI VSHFLHV RFFXUUHQFHV DQG DEXQGDQFHV /\QFK DQG :KLJKDP f 6RPH UHFHQW VWXGLHV KDYH FRQGXFWHG ERWK DQDO\VHV $XJXVW %ODNH DQG .DUU f DQ DSSURDFK DGRSWHG LQ WKH SUHVHQW SDSHU %RWK XQLYDULDWH $129$ 6$6 SURFHGXUH */0f DQG PXOWLYDULDWH 'LVFULPLQDQW $QDO\VLV 6$6 SURFHGXUHV */0 VXEURXWLQH 0$129$ DQG SURFHGXUH

PAGE 175

',6&5,0f PHWKRGV ZHUH XVHG LQ DVVHVVLQJ KDELWDW VHOHFWLYLW\ RI D SDUWLFXODU VSHFLHV 2QO\ VSHFLHV ZLWK RU PRUH FDSWXUHV ZHUH XVHG 7KH XQLYDULDWH DQDO\VLV RI YDULDQFH ZDV XVHG WR WHVW WKH QXOO K\SRWKHVLV WKDW WKH PHDQ YDOXH IRU HDFK KDELWDW PHDVXUH DW WUDS VWDWLRQV ZKHUH D VSHFLHV ZDV FDXJKW GLG QRW VLJQLILFDQWO\ GLIIHU IURP WKH PHDQ RI WKDW YDULDEOH REWDLQHG RYHU DOO WUDSSLQJ VWDWLRQV 7KXV FRQVLGHUHG WKDW WKH RYHUDOO PHDQV RI HDFK KDELWDW YDULDEOH UHSUHVHQWHG DYDLODEOH KDELWDW 'LVFULPLQDQW DQDO\VLV ZDV XVHG WR WHVW WKH QXOO K\SRWKHVLV WKDW KDELWDW SURILOH IRU HDFK VSHFLHV GLG QRW GLIIHU IURP SURILOH RI DYDLODEOH KDELWDW 7KLV W\SH RI DQDO\VLV LV HTXLYDOHQW WR 0$129$ $XJXVW f 7KH SUREDELOLW\ DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK :LONVf ODPEGD ZDV XVHG WR DVVHVV GLIIHUHQFHV EHWZHHQ KDELWDW DQG VSHFLHV SURILOHV $YDLODEOH KDELWDW LV UHSUHVHQWHG E\ PHDQV RI DOO WUDSSLQJ VWDWLRQV RI DOO IRUHVW SORWV ZKHUH VSHFLHV ZDV UHFRUGHG 7KH GLVFULPLQDQW IXQFWLRQV JHQHUDWHG ZLWK WKH DERYH PHWKRGV ZHUH DOVR XVHG WR FODVVLI\ WUDSSLQJ VWDWLRQV LQ IRUHVWV SORWV ZKHUH VSHFLHV ZHUH DQG ZHUH QRW WUDSSHG 7KH REMHFWLYH KHUH ZDV WR DVVHVV WKH SRVVLEOH DEVHQFH RI D VSHFLHV IURP D SDUWLFXODU VLWH DV D UHVXOW RI KDELWDW UHTXLUHPHQWV ,Q DGGLWLRQ WR :LONVf ODPEGD YDOXHV WKH DELOLW\ RI WKH GLVFULPLQDQW IXQFWLRQV LQ FRUUHFWO\ FODVVLI\LQJ WUDSSLQJ VWDWLRQV SURYLGHG D IXUWKHU LQGLFDWLRQ RI WKH DFFXUDF\ RI WKH DQDO\VLV .DFKLJDQ f $129$ DVVXPHV KRPRJHQHLW\ RI YDULDQFHV 6RNDO DQG 5RKOI f 7R H[DPLQH WKLV DVVXPSWLRQ DSSOLHG +DUWOH\fV )PD[WHVW 0RVW YDULDEOHV SURYHG WR EH KHWHURVFHGDVWLF 7KHUHIRUH WUDQVIRUPHG DOO

PAGE 176

KDELWDW YDULDEOHV WR ORJDULWKPV ZKLFK VWDELOL]HG WKH YDULDQFHV RI QHDUO\ DOO YDULDEOHV XVHG )RU WKH PXOWLYDULDWH PRGHOV ERWK YDULDQFH DQG FRYDULDQFH PDWULFHV DUH UHTXLUHG WR EH KRPRJHQHRXV .DFKLJDQ f 7KH YLRODWLRQ RI WKHVH DVVXPSWLRQV LV IUHTXHQW ZLWK HFRORJLFDO GDWD EXW WKH\ GR QRW VHHP WR DIIHFW WKH UHOLDELOLW\ RI WKH WHVWV WR D JUHDW H[WHQW $XJXVW f HVSHFLDOO\ ZKHQ FRPSDUHG WR QRQSDUDPHWULF DOWHUQDWLYHV 'XHVHU DQG 6KXJDUW f $OO VWDWLVWLFDO DQDO\VHV ZHUH FRQGXFWHG XVLQJ WKH 3&6$6 6$6 ,QVWLWXWH &DU\ 1&f VRIWZDUH SDFNDJH RQ 06'26 0LFURVRIW &RUSRUDWLRQf EDVHG PDFKLQHV 6SHFLHV LQWHUDFWLRQV ,Q RUGHU WR GHWHFW SRVVLEOH FRPSHWLWLYH LQWHUDFWLRQV XVHG XQLYDULDWH DQDO\VLV RI YDULDQFH $129$f WHVWHG WKH QXOO K\SRWKHVLV WKDW WKH PHDQ WUDSSLQJ VXFFHVV RI D VSHFLHV GLG QRW GLIIHU EHWZHHQ WUDSSLQJ VWDWLRQV ZKHUH LW RQO\ ZDV FDSWXUHG DQG WKRVH DW ZKLFK D VHFRQG VSHFLHV ZDV DOVR UHFRUGHG 6SHFLHV ZLWK OHVV WKDQ FDSWXUHV ZHUH QRW XVHG LQ WKLV DQDO\VLV ,Q DGGLWLRQ /OR\GfV f PHDQ FURZGLQJ LQGH[ ZDV FDOFXODWHG IRU HDFK VSHFLHV XQGHU DQDO\VLV 7KH LQGH[ UHIOHFWV WKH PHDQ QXPEHU SHU LQGLYLGXDO RI D VSHFLHV RI LQGLYLGXDOV RI D VHFRQG VSHFLHV LQ WKH VDPH VWDWLRQ ZKHUH LW ZDV UHFRUGHG /OR\G 3LHORX f 7KH FRPSOHPHQW ZDV DOVR FDUULHG RXW IRU WKH VHFRQG VSHFLHV 7KH GLIIHUHQFH EHWZHHQ WKH PHDQ FURZGLQJ LQGLFHV EHWZHHQ WZR VSHFLHV SURYLGHV DQ HVWLPDWH RI WKH SRVVLEOH FRPSHWLWLYH VXSHULRULW\ RI D SDUWLFXODU VSHFLHV 7KH DVVXPSWLRQ RI

PAGE 177

WKLV DQDO\VLV LV WKDW D VSHFLHV ZKLFK RQ DYHUDJH FURZGV D VHFRQG VSHFLHV PRUH WKDQ LW LV FURZGHG E\ LW SRVVHVVHV VXSHULRU FRPSHWLWLYH DELOLW\ %HFDXVH LW LV QRW SRVVLEOH WR REWDLQ D PHDVXUH RI VDPSOLQJ YDULDQFH DQG WKXV RI HUURU WHUPV LQWHUSUHWDWLRQ RI WKHVH HVWLPDWHV LV OLPLWHG 3LHORX f &KLVTXDUH DQDO\VHV IRU SUHVHQFH DQG DEVHQFH RI VSHFLHV DW WUDSSLQJ VWDWLRQV ZHUH DOVR SHUIRUPHG +RZHYHU LW LV IHOW WKDW XQOHVV FRPSHWLWLYH HIIHFWV DUH YHU\ VWURQJ RU DUH UHODWLYH ILQHJUDLQHG LQ UHODWLRQ WR WKH VDPSOLQJ PHWKRGV XVHG WKH SUREDELOLW\ RI D W\SH HUURU RI QRW UHMHFWLQJ D QRQLQWHUDFWLRQ QXOO K\SRWKHVLV LV LQFUHDVHG 7KLV LV GXH WR WKH IDFW WKDW RYHUODS DQDO\VHV GR QRW WDNH LQWR DFFRXQW WUDSSLQJ VXFFHVV EXW RQO\ SUHVHQFH ZKLFK LQ UHDOLW\ LV UHSUHVHQWHG E\ YDOXHV UDQJLQJ DQ\ZKHUH IURP WR WKH PD[LPXP QXPEHU RI FDSWXUHV DW D SDUWLFXODU WUDSSLQJ VWDWLRQf DQG DEVHQFH RI VSHFLHV ,I ZH FRQVLGHU WKDW SHUKDSV WKH GLVWDQFH VHSDUDWLQJ WUDSSLQJ VWDWLRQV LQ WKLV VWXG\ PHWHUVf LV QRW HQRXJK WR DOORZ IRU D ILQH GLVFULPLQDWLRQ RI SRVVLEOH VSDWLDO VHJUHJDWLRQ EHWZHHQ VSHFLHV WKH UHVXOWV RI WKLV W\SH RI DQDO\VLV VKRXOG EH FDUHIXOO\ LQWHUSUHWHG 3UHGDWRU SUHVVXUH (YLGHQFH IRU WKH GHWHUPLQDWLRQ RI WKH HIIHFWV RI PDPPDOLDQ SUHGDWRU SUHVVXUH RQ VPDOO PDPPDO FRPPXQLW\ VWUXFWXUH ZDV FROOHFWHG ERWK GLUHFWO\ LQ WKH VWXG\ VLWHV DQG LQGLUHFWO\ IURP GDWD DYDLODEOH LQ

PAGE 178

WKH OLWHUDWXUH 'LUHFW VLJKWLQJ UHFRUGV ZHUH FROOHFWHG LQ WKH IRUHVW SORWV ZKLOH UXQQLQJ WUDSOLQHV $GGLWLRQDO LQIRUPDWLRQ RQ FDUQLYRUHV ZDV SURYLGHG E\ HPSOR\HHV RI WKH IDUPV SDUN SHUVRQQHO DQG ORFDO KXQWHUV 1R GLUHFW FHQVXVHV ZHUH FRQGXFWHG 7KH SUHGDWRU VSHFLHV WKDW ZHUH FRQVLGHUHG DV KDYLQJ D GLUHFW LQIOXHQFH RQ VPDOO PDPPDO FRPPXQLW\ FRPSRVLWLRQ ZHUH WKH RFHORW )HOOV SDUGDO LVf WKH MDJXDUXQGL )HOLV \DJRXDURXQGLf WKH PDUJD\ FDW )HOLV ZLHOGLLf WKH MDJXDU )HOOV RQFDf DQG WKH WD\UD (LUD EDUEDUDf 'DWD RQ SUHGDWRU GLHWV DQG SUHGDWRU\ EHKDYLRU FDPH IURP WKH IROORZLQJ VRXUFHV %LVEDO f %LVEDO DQG 2MDVWL f (PPRQV f (QGHUV f +XQVDNHU f .RQHFQ\ LQ SUHVVf /XGORZ DQG 6XQTXLVW f 0RQGROIL f DQG 5DELQRZLW] DQG 1RWWLQJKDP f 5HVXOWV 6SHFLHV &RPSRVLWLRQ DQG $EXQGDQFH 3DWWHUQV 2YHU D SHULRG RI PRQWKV VPDOO PDPPDO VSHFLHV ZHUH UHFRUGHG LQ WKH VL[ IRUHVW SORWV WDNHQ WRJHWKHU 7DEOH f 6SHFLHV ULFKQHVV UDQJHG IURP VL[ LQ WKH VPDOO DQG LQ WKH ODUJH SULPDU\ IRUHVW SORWV WR LQ WKH ODUJH VHFRQGDU\ IRUHVW ,Q WRWDO REWDLQHG FDSWXUHV RI LQGLYLGXDOV 7DEOH f

PAGE 179

7DEOH 7RWDO ELRPDVV LQ JUDPVf QXPEHU RI LQGLYLGXDOV 1f DQG WRWDO QXPEHU RI FDSWXUHV 7&f UHFRUGHG IRU HDFK VSHFLHV GXULQJ FRQVHFXWLYH PRQWKV RI WUDSSLQJ DW WKH VL[ GLIIHUHQW IRUHVW SORWV )25(67 3/276 5& )0& 5' 6PDOO KDf 0HGLXP KDf /DUJH KDf 3ULPDU\ 6HFRQGDU\ 3ULPDU\ 6HFRQGDU\ 3ULPDU\ 6HFRQGDU\ &DOXURP\V SKL ODQGHU 1 7& 'LGHOSKLV PDUVXSLDO LV 1 1 1 1 1 1 7& 7& 7& 7& 7& 7& 0DUPRVD DTLOLV 1 1 7& 7& 0DUPRVD FLQHUHD 1 1 7& 7& 0DUPRVD LQFDQD 1 1 1 1 1 1 7& 7& 7& 7& 7& 7& 0DUPRVD PLFURWDUVXV 1 7& 0HWDFKL UXV QXGLFDXGDWXV 1 1 1 1 1 1 7& 7& 7& 7& 7& 7& 3KLODQGHU RSRVVXP 1 1 1 1 7& 7& 7& 7& $EUDZD\RP\V UXVFKL 1 7&

PAGE 180

7DEOH FRQWLQXHG 5& )0& 5' 6PDOO KDf 0HGLXP KDf /DUJH KDf 3ULPDU\ 6HFRQGDU\ 3ULPDU\ 6HFRQGDU\ 3ULPDU\ 6HFRQGDU\ $NRGRQ FXUVRU 1 1 1 7& 7& 7& 1HFWRP\V VDXDPLRHV 1 1 1 7& 7& 7& 2U\]RP\V FDRLWR 1 7& 2U\]RP\V QLTULSHV 1 1 1 7& 7& 7& 2U\]RP\V VXEIODYXV 1 7& 2U\]RP\V WULQLWDWLV 1 1 1 1 1 1 7& 7& 7& 7& 7& 7& 2[YPYFWHUXV VS 1 7& 5KLRLGRPYV PDVWDFDOLV f§ R ] ,, ,, R R (FKYP\V VR f§ R ] ,, ,, R R N f§L 3URHFKLP\V VHWRVXV 1 1 1 1 7& 7& 7& 7& 727$/ 1 1 1 1 1 1 7& 7& 7& 7& 7& 7&

PAGE 181

0DUVXSLDOV ZHUH E\ IDU WKH PRVW FRPPRQ VPDOO PDPPDOV LQ HDFK RI WKH IRUHVWV VWXGLHG ERWK LQ WHUPV RI SURSRUWLRQ RI LQGLYLGXDOV LQ GLIIHUHQW VLWHV UDQJLQJ IURP b WR bf DQG LQ SURSRUWLRQ RI FDSWXUHV UDQJLQJ IURP b WR bf ,I WKHVH SURSRUWLRQV DUH FRQYHUWHG WR DEVROXWH ELRPDVV WKH GLIIHUHQFH LQ IDYRU RI PDUVXSLDOV LV RYHUZKHOPLQJ b WR bf 7KH WZR LQWHUPHGLDWH VL]H IRUHVWV ZHUH UHVSRQVLEOH IRU WKH ODUJHVW QXPEHU RI URGHQW LQGLYLGXDOV PRVWO\ EHORQJLQJ WR WZR VSHFLHV 3URHFKLP\V VHWRVXV DQG 2U\]RP\V WULQLWDWLV 7KH ODUJHVW VHFRQGDU\ IRUHVW KDG WKH PRVW QXPEHU RI URGHQW VSHFLHV HLJKWf ZKLOH PDUVXSLDO VSHFLHV UDQJHG IURP IRXU VPDOO SULPDU\f WR VL[ VSHFLHV ODUJH VHFRQGDU\f )RXU VSHFLHV WKUHH PDUVXSLDOV 'LGHOSKLV PDUVXSLDO LV 0DUPRVD LQFDQD DQG 0HWDFKL UXV QXGLFDXGDWXVf DQG RQH URGHQW 2U\]RP\V WULQLWDWLVf ZHUH SUHVHQW LQ DOO VL[ IRUHVWV 3KLODQGHU RSRVVXP DQG 3URHFKLP\V VHWRVXV ZHUH SUHVHQW LQ IRXU IRUHVWV EXW ZHUH DEVHQW IURP WKH 5LR 'RFH 3DUN ZKHUH WKH WZR ODUJH IRUHVW SDWFKHV ZHUH ORFDWHG &RQYHUVHO\ 0DUPRVD FLQHUHD ZDV FRPPRQ RQ WKH 5LR 'RFH 3DUN EXW FRQVSLFXRXVO\ DEVHQW IURP DOO RI WKH VPDOOHU SORWV 7KHVH VHYHQ VSHFLHV ZHUH UHVSRQVLEOH IRU b RI DOO LQGLYLGXDOV WUDSSHG RYHU WKH ZKROH SHULRG RI WKH VWXG\ 7KH RWKHU PHPEHUV RI WKH FRPPXQLWLHV ZHUH QRW IUHTXHQWO\ FDXJKW DQG HLJKW VSHFLHV ZHUH RQO\ SUHVHQW LQ RQH IRUHVW SORW XVXDOO\ ZLWK RQO\ RQH RU WZR LQGLYLGXDOV

PAGE 182

,Q VHFRQGDU\ IRUHVWV 2UY]RPYV WUOQLWDWLV DQG 0DUPRVD LQFDQD DFKLHYHG WKHLU KLJKHVW GHQVLWLHV 2QHZD\ $129$ Sf ZKLOH 'LGHOSKLV PDUVXSLDO LV DQG 3URHFKLP\V VHWRVXV SRSXODWLRQV ZHUH PRUH GHQVH LQ SULPDU\ IRUHVWV 2QHZD\ $129$ Sf 2Q WKH RWKHU KDQG 0HWDFKL UXV QXGLFDXGDWXV DQG 3KLODQGHU RSRVVXPfV DEXQGDQFHV GLG QRW VHHP WR EH DIIHFWHG E\ DQ\ PHDVXUHG VWUXFWXUDO RU ERWDQLFDO GLIIHUHQFH H[LVWLQJ EHWZHHQ SULPDU\ DQG VHFRQGDU\ IRUHVWV 2QHZD\ $129$ S!f 7KH ODUJHVW VHFRQGDU\ IRUHVW ZDV WKH ULFKHVW VLWH ERWK LQ QXPEHU RI VSHFLHV f DQG LQ WRWDO QXPEHU RI LQGLYLGXDOV f REVHUYHG RYHU WKH FRXUVH RI PRQWKV RI WUDSSLQJ %RWK WKH VPDOO DQG WKH ODUJH SULPDU\ IRUHVWV KDG IHZ LQGLYLGXDOV DQG UHVSHFWLYHO\f DQG IHZHU VSHFLHV VL[ HDFKf 7KH IRUHVWV RI LQWHUPHGLDWH VL]HV DQG WKH VPDOO VHFRQGDU\ IRUHVW DOO \LHOGHG QLQH VPDOO PDPPDO VSHFLHV HYHQ WKRXJK WKH VPDOO SULPDU\ IRUHVW VXSSRUWHG WKH OHDVW QXPEHU RI LQGLYLGXDOV RI DOO SORWV 7DEOH f 0HWDFKL UXV QXGLFDXGDWXV 0DUPRVD LQFDQD DQG 3URHFKLP\V VHWRVXV FDSWXUHV ZHUH KLJKHU LQ IRUHVW SORWV RI LQFUHDVLQJ VL]H 2QHZD\ $129$6 Sf 'LGHOSKLV PDUVXSLDO LVf FDSWXUHV GHPRQVWUDWHG D UHYHUVH WUHQG ZLWK VPDOOHU SORWV GLVSOD\LQJ WKH KLJKHVW QXPEHU RI FDSWXUHV IROORZHG E\ WKH PLGVL]H DQG WKH ODUJH SORWV UHVSHFWLYHO\ 2QHZD\ $129$ Sf )RU RWKHU VSHFLHV WKH VPDOO VDPSOH VL]H GLG QRW DOORZ VWDWLVWLFDO DQDO\VHV

PAGE 183

7DEOH 5HVXOWV RI WKH GLVFULPLQDQW DQDO\VHV XVLQJ KDELWDW YDULDEOHV IRU HDFK VSHFLHV 7KH GLVFULPLQDQW IXQFWLRQ VHSDUDWHV JURXSV RI WUDS VWDWLRQV ZKHUH VSHFLHV ZDV FDXJKW LQ DQ\ IRUHVW SORW DJDLQVW DOO DYDLODEOH KDELWDW UHSUHVHQWHG E\ DOO WUDS VWDWLRQV LQ DOO IRUHVW SORWV 2QO\ VSHFLHV ZLWK VDPSOH VL]HV JUHDWHU WKDQ WUDSSLQJ UHFRUGV ZHUH XVHG LQ WKH DQDO\VLV :LONfV ODPEGD YDOXHV DQG DVVRFLDWHG SYDOXHV UHIHU WR WKH PDQRYD PRGHO DV PHDVXUHG E\ ODPEGD r S rr S rrr Sf 6SHFLHV b &RUUHFW :LONfV ODPEGD 3 'LGHOSKLV PDUVXSLDOLV Q V 0HWDFKL UXV QXGLFDXGDWXV Q V 0DUPRVD LQFDQD Q V 0DUPRVD FLQHUHD Q V 3KLODQGHU RSRVVXP rrr 3URHFKLPYV VHWRVXV r 2UY]RP\V WULQLWDWLV Q V $NRGRQ FXUVRU Q V

PAGE 184

+DELWDW 6HOHFWLRQ 'HVSLWH WKH IDFW WKDW WZR VSHFLHV 0DUPRVD LQFDQD DQG 2U\]RP\V WULQLWDWLVf DFKLHYHG WKHLU KLJKHU DEXQGDQFHV LQ VHFRQGDU\ IRUHVWV ZKLOH DQRWKHU WZR 'AB PDUVXSLDO LV DQG I?B VHWRVXVf ZHUH PRUH FRPPRQO\ IRXQG LQ SULPDU\ IRUHVWV DOO RI WKHVH VSHFLHV ZLWK WKH H[FHSWLRQ RI 3URHFKLP\V VHWRVXV DSSHDU WR XVH WKHLU KDELWDW UDQGRPO\ ZLWK UHVSHFW WR DYDLODEOH KDELWDW DFURVV DOO IRUHVW SORWV 7DEOH f ,Q RWKHU ZRUGV E\ XVLQJ DJJUHJDWH GDWD ZKLFK GLG QRW VHSDUDWH SULPDU\ DQG VHFRQGDU\ IRUHVW WUDSSLQJ VWDWLRQV KDELWDW SURILOHV IRU VSHFLHV GLG QRW VLJQLILFDQWO\ GLIIHU IURP KDELWDW SURILOHV RI DYDLODEOH KDELWDW DV LQGLFDWHG E\ WKH SYDOXHV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK :LONVf ODPEGD VFRUHV 7KH GLVFULPLQDQW IXQFWLRQV IXUWKHUPRUH KDG D YHU\ ORZ SRZHU RI GLVFULPLQDWLQJ EHWZHHQ WUDSSLQJ VWDWLRQV ZKHUH VSHFLHV ZHUH DQG ZHUH QRW UHFRUGHG 7DEOH f 7KH H[FHSWLRQV ZHUH VHWRVXV DQG 3 RSRVVXP ZKRVH KDELWDW SURILOHV GLIIHUHG IURP DYDLODEOH KDELWDW HYHQ WKRXJK WKHLU IXQFWLRQV GLG QRW KDYH D YHU\ KLJK GLVFULPLQDWLQJ DELOLW\ 7DEOH f $W IRUHVWV ZKHUH 3URHFKLP\V VHWRVXV ZDV FDXJKW WKH SUHIHUUHG WUDSSLQJ VWDWLRQV ZHUH WKRVH ZKHUH WKH KDELWDW FRQVLVWHG RI WDOOHU WKDQ DYHUDJH WUHHV RI D ZHOO GHYHORSHG FDQRS\ FRYHU VSDUVH KHUEDFHRXV JURZWK DQG ZKHUH IDOOHQ ORJV RFFXUUHG IUHTXHQWO\ 7DEOH f 3KLODQGHU RSRVVXP DOVR VHHPV WR SUHIHU WDOO SULPDU\ IRUHVW DUHDV EXW ZDV DOVR FRPPRQO\ DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK PRLVW VLWXDWLRQV 7KH VPDOO VDPSOH

PAGE 185

7DEOH 5HVXOWV RI XQLYDULDWH DQDO\VLV RI YDULDQFH $129$f RI KDELWDW YDULDEOHV IRU VSHFLHV DJDLQVW KDELWDW DYDLODELOLW\ 3 SUREDELLWLHV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK )WHVWV ZKHUH r S rr S rrr Sf 'P 0Q 0L 0H 3R 3V 2W $F +7 2+ ++ &;& &;0 && +& '9& '90 '9+ '9 '( )/ +80 163 175 rf rr f rf r f rf r f rf rrrf rrf rr f rrrf rrrf rrrf rrrf rf rf r f rrrf rf rrrf r f rrf rf %3 rrrf r f r f 7% rf rf rf rrrf 1V 1K 1RWH 7KH RU VLJQV LQ WKH YDULDEOHV WKDW ZHUH VLJQLILFDQWO\ GLIIHUHQW IURP DYDLODEOH KDELWDW UHIHU WR WKH GLUHFWLRQ RI GLIIHUHQFH DV GHWHUPLQHG XVLQJ SDLUZLVH FRPSDULVRQ RI PHDQV ZLWK WKH *7 PHWKRG )RU VSHFLHV WKDW RFFXUUHG LQ DOO IRUHVW SORWV 'LGHOSKLV PDUVXSLDO LV 0DUPRVD LQFDQD 0HWDFKL UXV QXGLFDXGDWXV DQG 2U\]RPYV WULQLWDWLVf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

PAGE 186

VL]H RI 3L RSRVVXP FDSWXUHV KRZHYHU KLQGHUV IXUWKHU FRQFOXVLRQV UHJDUGLQJ KDELWDW SUHIHUHQFHV $OWKRXJK IRU PRVW VSHFLHV WKH PXOWLYDULDWH PRGHO ZDV QRW VLJQLILFDQWO\ GLIIHUHQW IURP UDQGRP XVH RI DYDLODEOH KDELWDW VRPH WUHQGV ZHUH REVHUYHG ZKHQ WKH KDELWDW SURILOHV ZHUH DQDO\]HG XQLYDULDWO\ 'LGHOSKLV PDUVXSLDO LV GHVSLWH EHLQJ D JHQHUDOLVW DYRLGHG KDELWDWV ZLWK D ZHOO GHYHORSHG KHUEDFHRXV XQGHUVWRU\ DQG DQG DOVR DEVHQW IURP EDPERR VWDQGV 7DEOH f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b RI WKH WUDSSLQJ VWDWLRQV LQ ERWK IRUHVW SORWV DV

PAGE 187

7DEOH 5HVXOWV RI GLVFULPLQDQW DQDO\VLV IRU FODVVLILFDWLRQ RI WUDS VWDWLRQV IRU 3URHFKLP\V VHWRVXV 0DUPRVD FLQHUHD DQG 3KLODQGHU RSRVVXP IRU IRUHVWV ZKHUH VSHFLHV ZDV QRW UHFRUGHG 'LVFULPLQDQW IXQFWLRQ ZDV EXLOW XVLQJ KDELWDW YDULDEOHV IRU VWDWLRQV ZKHUH VSHFLHV ZHUH FDXJKW DJDLQVW DOO DYDLODEOH WUDS VWDWLRQV 5HVXOWV DUH SUHVHQWHG LQ WDEOH LQ SHUFHQWDJH RI WUDS VWDWLRQV FODVVLILHG DV KDYLQJ VSHFLHV 3UHVHQFH
PAGE 188

SRWHQWLDOO\ EHLQJ DEOH WR VXSSRUW WKH VSHFLHV 7DEOH f &RQYHUVHO\ WKH GLVFULPLQDQW IXQFWLRQV RI 3KLODQGHU RSRVVXP ZKHQ DSSOLHG WR RWKHU IRUHVWV ZKHUH LW ZDV DEVHQW PRVWO\ FRQILUPHG WKLV GLVWULEXWLRQ SDWWHUQ DV D UHVXOW RI KDELWDW GLIIHUHQFHV LQ JHQHUDO RQO\ FODVVLI\LQJ DERXW b RI WKH VWDWLRQV DV VSHFLHVf KDELWDW 7DEOH f 7KH VDPH DQDO\VLV ZDV DOVR DWWHPSWHG IRU WKH JHQHUDOLVW 0DUPRVD FLQHUHD YHU\ FRPPRQ RQ WKH ODUJH SORWV EXW DEVHQW IURP DOO RWKHUV 7KH IXQFWLRQ FODVVLILHG RYHU b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f

PAGE 189

7DEOH 0HDQ QXPEHU RI FDSWXUHV RI VSHFLHV DW WUDSSLQJ VWDWLRQV ZKHUH 'LGHOSKLV PDUVXSLDO LV ZDV DOVR FDSWXUHG 'LGHOSKLV VWDWLRQVf DQG PHDQ QXPEHU RI FDSWXUHV RI VSHFLHV DW VWDWLRQV ZKHUH 'LGHOSKLV PDUVXSLDO LV ZDV QHYHU FDSWXUHG 1RQ'LGHOSKLV VWDWLRQVf $OVR VKRZQ WKH LV WKH PHDQ WUDSSLQJ VXFFHVV IRU URGHQWV LQ VWDWLRQV ZKHUH PDUVXSLDOV ZHUH DQG ZHUH QRW FDSWXUHG 3YDOXHV LQGLFDWH VLJQLILFDQFH RI XQLYDULDWH )WHVWV ZKHUH r S rr S rrr S 6G VWDQGDUG GHYLDWLRQ RI XQWUDQVIRUPHG YDULDEOHV U UDQJH RI XQWUDQVIRUPHG YDULDEOHV 1 VDPSOH VL]H IRU 'LGHOSKLV DQG 1RQ'LGHOSKLV VWDWLRQV DQG PDUVXSLDO DQG QRQPDUVXSLDO VWDWLRQV UHVSHFWLYHO\ 1 'LGHOSKLV VWDWLRQV 1RQ'LGHOSKLV VWDWLRQV 3 0 QXGLFDXGDWXV VG U f VG U f rrr 0 LQFDQD VG U f VG U f r 0 FLQHUHD & VG U f§f VG U f WW 3 RSRVVXP VG U f VG U f Q V WULQLWDWLV VG U f VG U f Q V 3 VHWRVXV VG U f VG U f Q V $ FXUVRU VG U f VG U f W 1 0DUVXSLDO VWDWLRQV 1RQ0DUVXSLDO VWDWLRQV $// 52'(176 VG U f VG U f QV $// 52'(176 (;&(37 3 VHWRVXV VG U f VG U f r

PAGE 190

7DEOH /OR\G PHDQ FURZGLQJ LQGLFHV DYHUDJHG RYHU DOO WUDSSLQJ VWDWLRQV ,QGLFHV RQ WRS RI PDWUL[ UHIHU WR WKH PHDQ FURZGLQJ RI URZ VSHFLHV RQ FROXPQ VSHFLHV WKH ERWWRP SDUW RI WKH PDWUL[ UHIHUV WR WKH UHFLSURFDO HIIHFW $EEUHYLDWLRQV RI VSHFLHV QDPHV FDQ EH IRXQG LQ 7DEOH 'P 0Q 0L 0H 3R 3V 2W $F 'P f§ 0Q 0L 0H 3R 3V 2W $F

PAGE 191

6SHFLHV ,QWHUDFWLRQV 3DWWHUQV RI VSHFLHV LQWHUDFWLRQV ZHUH DQDO\]HG IRU HLJKW VSHFLHV IRU ZKLFK VDPSOH VL]H ZDV VXIILFLHQW 'LGHOSKLV PDUVXSLDO LV 0HWDFKL UXV QXGLFDXGDWXV 0DUPRVD LQFDQD 0DUPRVD FLQHUHD 3KL ODQGHU RSRVVXP 3URHFKLP\V VHWRVXV 2U\]RP\V WULQLWDWLV DQG $NRGRQ FXUVRUf 'LIIHUHQFHV LQ PHDQ WUDSSLQJ VXFFHVV RI D VSHFLHV ZKHQ D VHFRQG RQH ZDV SUHVHQW LQGLFDWHG WKDW RQO\ RQH VSHFLHV 'LGHOSKLV PDUVXSLDO LV GHSUHVVHG WKH WUDSSLQJ VXFFHVV RI DQRWKHU 7KHUHIRUH DOO VXEVHTXHQW DQDO\VLV LQYHVWLJDWHG WKH HIIHFW RI FRPPRQ RSRVVXPV RQ WUDSSLQJ VXFFHVV RI RWKHU VSHFLHV 0HDQ WUDSSLQJ VXFFHVV RI WKUHH PDUVXSLDO DQG RQH URGHQW VSHFLHV ZHUH UHGXFHG ZKHQ 'LGHOSKLV PDUVXSLDO LV ZDV SUHVHQW RQ WKH VDPH WUDSSLQJ VWDWLRQ 7DEOH f 2SRVVXPV DOVR QHJDWLYHO\ GHSUHVVHG WKH FDSWXUH VXFFHVV RI DJJUHJDWH WUDSSLQJV RI 2U\]RP\V WULQLWDWLV DQG $NRGRQ FXUVRU 7DEOH f 7KH VDPH UHVXOWV FDQ EH REVHUYHG E\ H[DPLQLQJ /OR\G PHDQ FURZGLQJ LQGLFHV IRU 'LGHOSKLV PDUVXSLDO LV 7DEOH f 2SRVVXPV GHSUHVV WUDSSLQJ VXFFHVV RI WKUHH PDUVXSLDO DQG RQH URGHQW VSHFLHV PRUH WKDQ WKH\ DUH RQ D VWDWLRQ E\ VWDWLRQ EDVLV GHSUHVVHG E\ DQ\ RI WKH VHFRQG VSHFLHV 2YHUODS DQDO\VLV LQGLFDWHG QHJDWLYH LQWHUDFWLRQV EHWZHHQ RSRVVXPV DQG 0HWDFKL UXV QXGLFDXGDWXV &KLVTXDUH Sf 0DUPRVD FLQHUHD &KLVTXDUH Sf DQG $NRGRQ FXUVRU &KLVTXDUH Sf DQG QR VWDWLVWLFDOO\ VLJQLILFDQW QHJDWLYH LQWHUDFWLRQV EHWZHHQ DQ\ RWKHU SDLUV RI VSHFLHV 7KHVH

PAGE 192

UHVXOWV DUH FRQVHUYDWLYH EHFDXVH WKH\ GR QRW WDNH LQWR DFFRXQW WUDSSLQJ VXFFHVV EXW SUHVHQFH RU DEVHQFH RI VSHFLHV IURP WUDSSLQJ VWDWLRQV 7KH IUHTXHQF\ ZLWK ZKLFK 'LGHOSKLV PDUVXSLDO LV LQWHUDFWV ZLWK RWKHU VSHFLHV DSSHDU WR EH GHSHQGHQW RQ IRUHVW VL]H 7DEOH f )LYH VSHFLHV ZKLFK KDG DW OHDVW RQH IRUHVW SORW RI WZR VL]H FDWHJRULHV LQ FRPPRQ ZLWK RSRVVXPV VKRZHG WKDW WKHLU RYHUODS LQFUHDVH IURP VPDOO WR PHGLXP VL]H DQG WKHQ VXEVHTXHQWO\ GHFUHDVH LQ ODUJH SORWV 7KHVH UHVXOWV PLJKW LQGLFDWH SRVVLEOH HIIHFWV RI VSHFLHV LQWHUDFWLRQV RU DOWHUQDWLYHO\ UHIOHFW WKH QXPEHU RI SRVVLEOH SDLUZLVH FDVHV 1RQHWKHOHVV WKH\ DOVR LQGLFDWH WKDW RSSRUWXQLWLHV IRU LQWHUDFWLRQV DUH UHGXFHG DV RQH JRHV IURP HLWKHU D VPDOO RU PHGLXP VL]HG IRUHVW WR D ODUJH RQH )LJXUH f 3UHGDWLRQ 7DEOH OLVWV WKH PDPPDOLDQ SUHGDWRU VSHFLHV UHFRUGHG DW HDFK RI WKH VWXG\ VLWHV ZKLFK DUH NQRZQ WR SUH\ RQ VRPH RI WKH VPDOO PDPPDOV WUDSSHG LQ WKRVH IRUHVWV 7DEOH f (YHQ WKRXJK WKLV VWXG\ GLG QRW LQFOXGH GLUHFW FHQVXV ZDV DEOH WR HVWLPDWH SRWHQWLDO SUHGDWRU SRSXODWLRQV E\ H[WUDSRODWLQJ NQRZQ GHQVLWLHV DW RWKHU WURSLFDO DUHDV 7DEOH f $V H[SHFWHG WKH VPDOO VL]H IRUHVWV KDG YHU\ IHZ SUHGDWRU VSHFLHV DQG WKHVH ZHUH QRW FRPPRQO\

PAGE 193

3(5&(17 29(5/$3 )LJXUH 3HUFHQW RYHUODS RI WUDS VWDWLRQV EHWZHHQ ' PDUVXSLDO LV DQG 0MB LQFDQD 0 QXGLFDXGDWXV WULQLWDWLV DQG 3A RSRVVXP DQG LWV YDULDWLRQ LQ IRUHVW SORWV RI GLIIHUHQW VL]HV )RU HDFK VL]H FDWHJRU\ ERWK SULPDU\ DQG VHFRQGDU\ IRUHVW GDWD ZHUH OXPSHG

PAGE 194

7DEOH 3URSRUWLRQ RI VWDWLRQV ZLWK RYHUODS EHWZHHQ 'LGHOSKLV PDUVXSLDO LV DQG D VHFRQG VSHFLHV 2QO\ WUDSSLQJ VWDWLRQV ZKHUH DW OHDVW RQH FDSWXUH RI RQH RI WKH VSHFLHV ZDV UHFRUGHG ZHUH LQFOXGHG LQ WKH DQDO\VLV 2YHUODS LQGLFHV DUH SUHVHQWHG DW HDFK RI WKH IRUHVW SORWV DV ZHOO DV IRU DOO VWDWLRQV OXPSHG DW HDFK VL]H FDWHJRU\ LUUHVSHFWLYH RI KDELWDW VWUXFWXUH 2YHUDOOf 6SHFLHV DEEUHYLDWLRQV DV SUHVHQWHG LQ 7DEOH 35 SULPDU\ IRUHVW 6& VHFRQGDU\ IRUHVWV 'LGHOSKLV PDUVXSLDO LV 6PDO 0HGLXP /DUJH 35 6& 29(5$// 35 6& 29(5$// 35 6& 29(5$// 0Q 0L 2W 3R 3V 0H $F

PAGE 195

7DEOH &DUQLYRUHV UHFRUGHG IRU HDFK RI WKH IRUHVW VLWHV VWXGLHG )D]HQGD (VPHUDOGD 5LR &DVFD 5&f 6PDOO 3DWFKHV )D]HQGD 0RQWHV &ODURV )0&f 0HGLXP 3DWFKHV 5LR 'RFH 3DUN 5'f /DUJH 3DWFKHV )HOLV 'DUGDOLV r r )HOLV YDTRXDURXQGL r r )HOLV ZLHOGLL r )HOLV FRQFRORU r 3DQWKHUD RQFD r (LUD EDUEDUD r r r *DOLFWLV YLWWDWD r r &HUGRF\RQ WKRXV r r

PAGE 196

7DEOH QHRWURSLFDO 6PDOO PDPPDOV RI FDUQLYRUHV WKLV VWXG\ ZKLFK DUH SUH\ VSHFLHV RI 2FHORW -DJXDUXQGL 0DUJD\ -DJXDU 7D\UD *ULVRQ )R[ 6WXGLHV 'LGHOSKLV r r r r r r r PDUVXSLDO LV 3KLODQGHU RSRVVXP r r 0DUPRVD VRS r r 0HWDFKL UXV QXGLFDXGDWXV r r r 0DUPRVD FLQHUHD r 3URHFKLP\V VSS r W r 2UY]RP\V FDSLWR r 5HIHUHQFHV %LVEDO f %LVEDO DQG 2MDVWL f (QGHUV f (PPRQV f +XQVDNHU f .RQHFQ\ LQ SUHVVf /XGORZ DQG 6XQTXLVW f 0RQGROIL f 5DELQRZLW] DQG 1RWWLQJKDP f

PAGE 197

7DEOH 'HQVLWLHV RI RFHORWV MDJXDUV SXPDV MDJXDUXQGLV DQG WD\UDV DQG SRWHQWLDO SRSXODWLRQ VL]HV RI IRUHVW VLWHV RI WKLV VWXG\ 'DWD RQ RFHORWV MDJXDUV DQG SXPDV ZHUH WDNHQ IURP (PPRQV f MDJXDUXQGLV IURP .RQHFQ\ LQ SUHVVf DQG WD\UD IURP 6XQTXLVW HW DO LQ SUHVVf %RG\ :HLJKW 2FHORWV NJ -DJXDUV NJ 3XPDV NJ -DJXDUXQGLV NJ 7D\UDV NJ 5HFRUGHG 'HQVLW\ SHU NP 3RWHQWLDO 1XPEHU RI 2FHORWV 3RWHQWLDO 1XPEHU RI -DJXDUV 3RWHQWLDO 3RWHQWLDO 1XPEHU RI 1XPEHU RI 3XPDV -DJXDUXQGLV 3RWHQWLDO 1XPEHU RI 7D\UDV )D]HQGD (VPHUDOGD NP )D]HQGD 0RQWHV &ODURV NP 5LR 'RFH 3DUN NP

PAGE 198

5HODWLYH LPSRUWDQFH RI 'LGHOSKLV PDUVXSLDO LV 'Pf 3URHFKLPYV DQG 3KL ODQGHU RSRVVXP 3Rf LQ WKH GLHWV RI RFHORW DQG 2QO\ PDPPDOV WKDW FRPSULVH WKH EXON RI WKHVH SUHGDWRUVf GLHWV DUH FRQVLGHUHG KHUH 7KH ILUVW QXPEHU EHWZHHQ SDUHQWKHVHV UHIHUV WR UDQN RI LPSRUWDQFH LQ GLHW DQG WKH VHFRQG UHIHUV WR WKH WRWDO QXPEHU RI PDPPDOLDQ LWHPV LQ GLHW 7DEOH VS 3VSf MDJXDUXQGL 2FHORW 6WXGLHV /XGORZ DQG .RQHFQ\ (PPRQV f 6XQTXLVW f LQ SUHVVf ; )UHTXHQF\ ; %LRPDVV b )UHTXHQF\ ; %LRPDVV ; )UHTXHQF\ ; %LRPDVV LQ VFDWV LQ GLHW LQ VFDWV LQ GLHW LQ VFDWV LQ GLHW 'P f f f f f f 3VS f f 3R f f -DJXDUXQGL 6WXG\ .RQHFQ\ LQ SUHVVf ; )UHTXHQF\ LQ VFDWV ; %LRPDVV LQ GLHW 'P f f

PAGE 199

VLJKWHG DW WKH VWXG\ VLWHV 7KH PHGLXPVL]HG IRUHVWV FRQWDLQHG ERWK RFHORWV )HOLV SDUGDO LVf DQG MDJXDURXQGLV )HOOV \DJRXDURXQGLf IHOLGV ZKLFK DUH NQRZQ WR SUH\ KHDYLO\ RQ ERWK 'LGHOSKLV PDUVXSLDO LV DQG 3KL ODQGHU RSRVVXP 7DEOH f 7KH ODUJH SORWV SRVVHVVHG D TXLWH ULFK DQG ODUJH SRSXODWLRQ RI PDPPDOLDQ SUHGDWRUV $OWKRXJK QRW TXDQWLILHG VLJKWV DQG WUDFNV RI RFHORWV DQG SRVVLEOH RWKHU VPDOOHU FDWVf DQG MDJXDUV ZHUH UHFRUGHG DW WKH 5LR 'RFH 3DUN PRUH IUHTXHQWO\ WKDQ LQ WKH PHGLXP VL]H SORWV 7KH LPSRUWDQFH RI WKH VPDOO PDPPDOV SUHVHQW LQ WKH FRPPXQLWLHV RQ WKH GLHWV RI WKHVH PDPPDOLDQ SUHGDWRUV FDQ EH VHHQ LQ 7DEOH 'DWD IURP /XGORZ DQG 6XQTXLVW DQG XQSXEOLVKHG GDWDf .RQHFQ\ LQ SUHVVf DQG (PPRQV f LQGLFDWH WKDW ERWK 'LGHOSKLV PDUVXSLDO LV DQG 3URHFKLP\V VSS DUH YHU\ RIWHQ LQFOXGHG LQ WKH GLHWV RI RFHORWV ERWK LQ WHUPV RI IUHTXHQF\ RI LWHPV DQG LQ WRWDO YROXPH RU ELRPDVV ,QIRUPDWLRQ RQ MDJXDURXQGLV LV VFDQW\ EXW LQ WKH RQO\ VWXG\ DYDLODEOH &K PDUVXSLDO LV UHPDLQV ZHUH UHFRUGHG LQ b RI DOO VFDWV FROOHFWHG ,I WKLV ILJXUH LV FRQYHUWHG LQ WRWDO ELRPDVV LQ GLHW LW ZRXOG PDNH RSRVVXPV WKH ILUVW UDQNLQJ SUH\ VSHFLHV 7DEOH f $GGLWLRQDO HYLGHQFH RI PDPPDOLDQ SUHGDWLRQ ZDV IRXQG GXULQJ WUDSSLQJ ,Q WKH VPDOOVL]HG IRUHVWV QR DQLPDO HYHU GLHG LQ D WUDS DV D UHVXOW RI SUHGDWLRQ ,Q ERWK WKH PHGLXP DQG ODUJH SORWV VHYHUDO WUDSV HLWKHU FRPSOHWHO\ GLVDSSHDUHG IURP VWDWLRQV RU ZHUH IRXQG RYHU PHWHUV DZD\ IUHTXHQWO\ FRQWDLQLQJ WKH UHPDLQV RI WKH

PAGE 200

SDUWLDOO\ HDWHQ VPDOO PDPPDOV ,Q RQH RI WKHVH LQVWDQFHV D WUDS ZLWK DQ JUDPV PDOH RSRVVXP ZDV IRXQG PHWHUV DZD\ IURP WKH VWDWLRQ 7KH DQLPDO KDG LWV OHJ SXOOHG WKURXJK D JDS RQ WKH WUDS GRRU ZKLFK ZDV WKHQ SDUWLDOO\ HDWHQ 3URHFKLP\V DUH NQRZQ WR ORVH WKHLU WDLOV HDVLO\ +HUVKNRYLW] 1RZDN DQG 3DUDGLVR f DQG WKLV LV FRPPRQO\ LQWHUSUHWHG DV DQ DQWLSUHGDWRU PHFKDQLVP ,W ZDV WKXV LQWHUHVWLQJ WR ILQG WKDW DERXW ; RI WKH DQLPDOV WUDSSHG DW WKH PHGLXP VL]H IRUHVWV KDG WKHLU WDLOV EURNHQ ZKLOH DOO LQGLYLGXDOV WUDSSHG LQ WKH VPDOOHU SORWV KDG WKHLUV LQWDFW 1R VSLQ\ UDWV ZHUH WUDSSHG RQ WKH ODUJHU SORWV 'LVFXVVLRQ 3DWWHUQV RI UHODWLYH DEXQGDQFHV DPRQJ VPDOO PDPPDOV KDYH EHHQ SUHYLRXVO\ OLQNHG WR PLFURKDELWDW UHTXLUHPHQWV VSDWLDO VHJUHJDWLRQ DQG FRPSHWLWLYH LQWHUSOD\V 5RVHQ]ZHLJ DQG :LQDNXU 0f&ORVNH\ 'XHVHU DQG 6KXJJDUW $XJXVW 1LWLNPDQ DQG 0DUHV f 5HVXOWV RI WKLV VWXG\ KDYH LQGLFDWHG WKDW WKH IRXU VSHFLHV FRPPRQ WR DOO VL[ IRUHVW SORWV UHJDUGOHVV RI WKHLU VXFFHVVLRQ VWDJH GLG QRW VHOHFW PLFURKDELWDW IURP DYDLODEOH KDELWDW DFURVV DOO IRUHVWV LQYHVWLJDWHG $ ILIWK VSHFLHV 3URHFKLP\V VHWRVXV SUHVHQW LQ DOO SORWV RI PHGLXP DQG VPDOO VL]H GLG DSSHDU WR EH PRUH VHOHFWLYH DV LWV GLVFULPLQDQW IXQFWLRQ ZDV

PAGE 201

PDUJLQDOO\ VLJQLILFDQW +RZHYHU QR KDELWDW UHDVRQ VHHPV WR SUHYHQW WKH VSHFLHV IURP EHLQJ SUHVHQW LQ ODUJHU SORWV 7KHUHIRUH GLIIHUHQFHV LQ VSHFLHV RFFXUUHQFHV DQG UHODWLYH DEXQGDQFHV EHWZHHQ IRUHVW SORWV FDQQRW EH VXFFHVVIXOO\ H[SODLQHG E\ PLFURKDELWDW UHTXLUHPHQW GLVWLQFWLRQV 7KH RQH H[FHSWLRQ DSSHDUV WR EH WKH JUD\ WZRH\HG RSRVVXP 3KL ODQGHU RSRVVXPf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f SRSXODWLRQV LQFUHDVH LQ QXPEHU ZLWK WKH DUHD VL]H RI WKH IRUHVW >/ PDUVXSLDO LVf UHODWLYH DEXQGDQFHV H[SHULHQFH D UHYHUVH G\QDPLF HVSHFLDOO\ DPRQJ VHFRQGDU\ IRUHVWV ,I ZH WDNH DEVROXWH ELRPDVV DV D PHDVXUH RI VSHFLHV GRPLQDQFH WKLV WUHQG LV HYHQ PRUH SURQRXQFHG )LJXUHV DQG f 7KLV VXJJHVWV WKDW WKH FRPPRQ RSRVVXP D FOHDU JHQHUDOLVW QHJDWLYHO\ DIIHFWV WKH FDUU\LQJ FDSDFLWLHV RI RWKHU VSHFLHV LQ WKH IRUHVWV ZKHUH WKH\ FRH[LVW 2Q D PLFURKDELWDW EDVLV K PDUVXSLDO LV GHSUHVVHG WKH GHQVLWLHV RI PRVW RWKHU VSHFLHV IRU ZKLFK VDPSOH VL]H ZDV VXIILFLHQW WR DOORZ

PAGE 202

3 PDUVXQLDOLV O O 0 QXULLFDXGDWXV :W0 0 LQFDQD _ 4 WULP WDWL6 2WKHU 6SHFLHV )LJXUH 3URSRUWLRQ RI UHODWLYH ELRPDVVHV RI 'A PDUVXSLDO LV 0 LQFDQD 0 QXGLFDXGDWXV WULQLWDWLV DQG UHPDLQLQJ VSHFLHV WRJHWKHU DV IXQFWLRQ RI VL]H FDWHJRU\ IRU VHFRQGDU\ IRUHVWV RQO\

PAGE 203

60$// 3/27 /$5*( 3/27 .0O 4 PDUVXSLDOV O : QXQVDXGDWLLV :IOK 0 LQUDQD L L 4 WULQLWDWLV @ 2WKHU 6SHFLHV )LJXUH 3URSRUWLRQ RI UHODWLYH ELRPDVVHV RI 'A PDUVXSLDO LV 0 LQFDQD 0A QXGLFDXGDWXV ; WULQLWDWLV DQG UHPDLQLQJ VSHFLHV WRJHWKHU DV IXQFWLRQ RI VL]H FDWHJRU\ IRU SULPDU\ IRUHVWV RQO\

PAGE 204

DQDO\VLV DQG ZDV WKH RQO\ VSHFLHV ZKLFK ZDV IRXQG WR QHJDWLYHO\ DIIHFW RWKHU VSHFLHVf UHODWLYH DEXQGDQFHV :KHUH RSRVVXPV DUH IUHTXHQWO\ FDXJKW 0HWDFKL UXV QXGLFDXGDWXV 0DUPRVD LQFDQD 0DUPRVD FLQHUHD DQG 2U\]RP\V WULQLWDWLV RFFXU LQ VLJQLILFDQWO\ ORZHU GHQVLWLHV 7KH SRWHQWLDO GHSUHVVLQJ HIIHFW RI FRPPRQ RSRVVXPV RQ RWKHU VPDOO PDPPDO VSHFLHV LV SRVVLEO\ SUHVHQW LQ PRVW VRXWK $PHULFDQ WURSLFDO FRPPXQLWLHV 'LGHOSKLV DUH WKH PRVW JHQHUDOLVW DQG YHUVDWLOH DQLPDOV DPRQJ QHRWURSLFDO VPDOO PDPPDOV 'LGHOSKLV PDUVXSLDO LV DFFRUGLQJ WR +HUVKNRYLW] SDJH f VXUSDVVHV DOO RWKHU OLYLQJ GLGHOSKLGV DQG SHUKDSV DOO RWKHU OLYLQJ PDPPDOV LQ WKH FRPELQDWLRQ RI DGDSWDELOLW\ WHQDFLW\ YLDELOLW\ YDJLOLW\ DQG SK\OHWLF ORQJHYLW\ 7KH JHQXV 'LGHOSKLV RFFXUV LQ DOPRVW DOO YHJHWDWLRQ IRUPDWLRQV +XQVDNHU 1RZDN DQG 3DUDGLVR 6WUHLOHLQ f IURP VRXWKHUQ &DQDGD WR FHQWUDO $UJHQWLQD LQFOXGLQJ HYHQ VXEXUEDQ VHWWLQJV 7KH UDQJH RI 'A PDUVXSLDO LV LV DOVR YHU\ H[WHQVLYH IURP &HQWUDO $PHULFD WR VRXWKHUQ %UD]LO DQG 3DUDJXD\ +XQVDNHU 6WUHLOHLQ f 2SRVVXPV FDQ DIIHFW RWKHU VPDOO PDPPDO VSHFLHV LQ WZR ZD\V )LUVW WKH GLHW DQG VSDWLDO XVH RI RSRVVXPV RYHUODSV ZLWK DOPRVW DOO VPDOO PDPPDOV RI WKH FRPPXQLWLHV ZKHUH LW H[LVWV HJ &KDUOHV'RPLQLTXH HW DO 0LOHV HW DO f DQG LQ SDUWLFXODU ZLWK RWKHU V\PSDWULF GLGHOSKLGV $OO GLGHOSKLGV DUH UHJDUGHG DV LQVHFWLYRUHRPQLYRUHV RU IUXJLYRUHRPQLYRUHV /HH DQG

PAGE 205

&RFNEXUQ f &KDULHV'RPLQL TXH f LQ D )UHQFK *X\DQDQ IRUHVW IRXQG 'LGHOSKLV PDUVXSLDO LVf GLHW WR EH WKH EURDGHVW DPRQJVW ILYH V\PSDWULF GLGHOSKLGV DQG WR XWLOL]H DOO PDMRU IRRG LWHPV RI RWKHU PDUVXSLDO VSHFLHV ZLWK WKH H[FHSWLRQ RI JXPV DQG IORZHUV $ GLHW FRPSRVLWLRQ VWXG\ RI ' PDUVXSLDO LV LQ 9HQH]XHOD LQGLFDWHG WKH XVH RI ERWK DQLPDO b LQ YROXPHf DQG SODQW IRRGV b LQ YROXPHf $ERXW RQH IRXUWK RI WKH YROXPH RI RSRVVXP GLHW FRQVLVWHG RI LQVHFWV DQG IUXLWV &RUGHUR DQG 1LFRODV f $QRWKHU UHPDUNDEOH IHDWXUH RI RSRVVXPV LV WKDW WKH\ VKLIW VXEVWUDWH XWLOL]DWLRQ SUHIHUHQFH DQG GLHW FRPSRVLWLRQ ZLWK DJH VHH &KDSWHU f
PAGE 206

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f DOWKRXJK KDUG HYLGHQFH RI WKH PDJQLWXGH RI SUHGDWLRQ LV VWLOO ODFNLQJ 9HUWHEUDWHV DUH FRQVXPHG E\ 'LGHOSKLV PRVW SUREDEO\ DV FDUULRQ EXW RFFDVLRQDO DQG RSSRUWXQLVWLF DWWDFNV RQ OLYH SUH\ KDYH DOVR EHHQ UHFRUGHG ,Q WKLV ZD\ 'A PDUVXSLDO LV PD\ DIIHFW RWKHU VSHFLHV WKURXJK ERWK GLUHFW FRPSHWLWLRQ IRU IRRG UHVRXUFHV DQG E\ SUHGDWLRQ RQ VPDOO PDPPDOV WKH IRUPHU EHLQJ SUREDEO\ PRUH LPSRUWDQW

PAGE 207

7KH YDULDWLRQ LQ DEXQGDQFHV RI VPDOO PDPPDO VSHFLHV IRXQG WR EH DIIHFWHG E\ FRPPRQ RSRVVXPV FDQ EH H[SODLQHG E\ GLIIHUHQWLDO SUHGDWRU SUHVVXUH LQ ODUJHU SORWV 'LGHOSKLV PDUVXSLDO LVf WUDSSLQJ VXFFHVV GHFUHDVHV ZLWK VL]H RI WKH IRUHVW SORWV DQG WKLV YDULDWLRQ LV DSSDUHQWO\ QRW D FRQVHTXHQFH RI YDULDWLRQ LQ KDELWDW ,QVWHDG SUHGDWRU SUHVVXUH DOWHUV FRPPXQLW\ VWUXFWXUH SDWWHUQV RI WKHVH IRUHVWV 6LQFH PDPPDOLDQ SUHGDWRUV DQG RWKHU WRS FDUQLYRUHV GR UHTXLUH ODUJH DUHDV WR PDLQWDLQ GHPRJUDSKLFDOO\ KHDOWK\ SRSXODWLRQV LW ZDV H[SHFWHG WKDW WKH VPDOOHU IRUHVW SORWV ZRXOG SRVVHVV IHZHU VSHFLHV DQG VPDOOHU FDUQLYRUH SRSXODWLRQV 7KLV SUHGLFWLRQ ZDV VXSSRUWHG E\ WKH UHVXOWV REWDLQHG LQ WKLV VWXG\ )XUWKHUPRUH GDWD FRPSLOHG IURP DYDLODEOH OLWHUDWXUH LQGLFDWH 'LGHOSKLV PDUVXSLDO LV DQG 3URHFKLP\V VSS DV PDMRU SUH\ LWHPV IRU PDPPDOLDQ FDUQLYRUHV LQ QHRWURSLFDO IRUHVWV VHH +HUVKNRYLW] (PPRQV /XGORZ DQG 6XQTXLVW .RQHFQ\ LQ SUHVVf 6RPH VWXGLHV KDYH VKRZQ WKDW SUHGDWRUV GR WDNH TXLWH D ODUJH SHUFHQWDJH RI VRPH VPDOO PDPPDO SRSXODWLRQV 3HDUVRQ (PPRQV f $XJXVW f KDV LPSOLFDWHG PDPPDOLDQ SUHGDWRUV DV WKH DJHQWV UHVSRQVLEOH IRU ORZ GHQVLWLHV RI VPDOO PDPPDOV LQ D VLWH LQ WKH 9HQH]XHODQ OODQRV &RPPRQ RSRVVXPV DV ODUJH DV JUDPV DQG RWKHU VPDOO PDPPDOV KDYH EHHQ REVHUYHG IDOOLQJ SUH\ WR JUHDW KRUQHG RZOV %XER YLUJLQHDQXVf LQ 3DUDJXD\ :ULJKW f )XUWKHU HYLGHQFH FDQ EH IRXQG LQ GDWD UHFHQWO\ FROOHFWHG E\ +HLGHPDQ HW DO f LQ 3KLOLSSLQH IRUHVWV 6PDOO PDPPDO VSHFLHV ULFKQHVV ZDV

PAGE 208

GHWHUPLQHG WR EH KLJKHU LQ IRUHVWV ZKHUH FDUQLYRUHV ZHUH DOVR PRUH DEXQGDQW DOWKRXJK WKH DXWKRUV GLG QRW VXJJHVW DQ\ SRVVLEOH FRQQHFWLRQ 3UHGDWLRQ KDV EHHQ LPSOLFDWHG DV EHLQJ D PDMRU IDFWRU VWUXFWXULQJ FRPPXQLWLHV &RQQHOO 3DLQH f E\ HLWKHU SUHYHQWLQJ DQ\ RQH VSHFLHV RI EHFRPLQJ H[WUHPHO\ DEXQGDQW RU E\ QRW SHUPLWWLQJ GRPLQDQW VSHFLHV WR RXWFRPSHWH DQG ORFDOO\ GULYH RWKHU VSHFLHV WR H[WLQFWLRQ (POHQ %RXUOLHUH f &RQQHOO f ZHQW HYHQ IXUWKHU WR VXJJHVW WKDW SUHGDWRUV VKRXOG EH PRUH HIIHFWLYH LQ UHGXFLQJ FRPSHWLWLRQ EHWZHHQ SUH\ VSHFLHV LQ PRUH EHQLJQ HQYLURQPHQWV 7KLV ZRXOG VXJJHVW WKDW WKH HIIHFW RI SUHGDWRUV RQ FRPSHWLQJ SUH\ VKRXOG SHUKDSV EH PRUH SURPLQHQW LQ WURSLFDO IRUHVW FRPPXQLWLHV .DUU f DQG /RLVHOOH DQG +RSSHV f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f SURYLGHG D UHPDUNDEOH ILW ZLWK WKH SDWWHUQV IRXQG KHUH VXJJHVWLQJ

PAGE 209

WKDW WKH ODFN RI SUHGDWRUV PD\ KDYH UHVXOWHG LQ FRPPRQ RSRVVXPV GRPLQDWLQJ WKH VPDOO PDPPDO FRPPXQLW\ )LJXUH f 7KH GDWD IURP (LVHQEHUJ HW DO f VXJJHVWV WKDW GLGHOSKLGV DQG SDUWLFXODUO\ 'LGHOSKLV PDUVXSLDO LV DUH QRW ZHOO UHSUHVHQWHG LQ WHUPV RI ELRPDVV UHODWLYH WR URGHQWV LQ WKH *XDWRSR 1DWLRQDO 3DUN LQ 9HQH]XHOD 7KH SDUN KDV WKH IXOO FRPSOHPHQW RI SUHGDWRUV (LVHQEHUJ SHUV FRPPf ZKLFK FRXOG KDYH H[HUWHG DQ LPSDFW RQ PDUVXSLDO LV $W WKH VPDOOHU +DWR 0DVDJXDUDO VLWH LQ WKH 9HQH]XHODQ OODQRV PDUVXSLDO ELRPDVV ZDV WZLFH WKDW RI URGHQWV 7KH VPDOOHU 0DVDJXDUDO VLWH KDV D SRRU FDUQLYRUH IDXQD IXUWKHU VXSSRUWLQJ WKH SUHGDWRU K\SRWKHVLV SXW IRUZDUG KHUH 3UHGDWLRQ DOVR FRQVWLWXWHV D YLDEOH H[SODQDWLRQ IRU WKH ODFN RI VSLQ\ UDWV LQ ODUJH SORWV VLQFH HIIRUWV LQ WU\LQJ WR OLQN UHODWLYH DEXQGDQFHV RI 3URHFKLP\V VHWRVXV ZLWK SRVVLEOH FRPSHWLWLYH LQWHUDFWLRQV KDYH QRW EHHQ VXFFHVVIXO ,Q DGGLWLRQ WKH GLVFULPLQDQW IXQFWLRQ VXJJHVWHG WKDW WKH IRUHVW SORWV WKDW ODFNHG VSLQ\ UDWV ZHUH DSSDUHQWO\ VXLWHG IRU WKH VSHFLHV 3URHFKLP\V VHWRVXV LV RWKHUZLVH IDLUO\ FRPPRQ RQ RWKHU IRUHVWV QRW YHU\ GLVWDQW IURP WKH 5LR 'RFH 3DUN VHH DOVR 'DYLV f )XUWKHUPRUH 6WDOOLQJV LQ SUHVVf KDV VDPSOHG IRXU RWKHU IRUHVWV LQ GLIIHUHQW UHJHQHUDWLRQ VWDJHV LQ WKH 5LR 'RFH 3DUN WKHUHIRUH RYHU D ZLGHU VSHFWUXP RI KDELWDWV DQG KDV DOVR IDLOHG WR UHFRUG VHWRVXV 3UHGDWRU SUHVVXUH RQ WKH RWKHU KDQG VKRXOG EH PRUH RU

PAGE 210

3URSRUWLRQ 60$// 3/27 0(',80 3/27 %$552 &2/25$'2 /$5*( 3/27 PDUVXSLDOLV 3UQHFQLPYV VRQ +cA 2WKHU 6SHFLHV )LJXUH 3URSRUWLRQ RI UHODWLYH ELRPDVVHV RI / PDUVXSLDOLV + LQFDQD 0 QXGLFDXGDWXV K WULQLWDWLV DQG UHPDLQLQJ VSHFLHV WRJHWKHU DV IXQFWLRQ RI VL]H FDWHJRU\ IRU ERWK SULPDU\ DQG VHFRQGDU\ IRUHVWV OXPSHG 7KH GDWD IRU %DUUR &RORUDGR ,VODQG FRPH IURP *ODQ] f DQG UHODWLYH SURSRUWLRQV ZHUH FDOFXODWHG IRU RQO\ WKH VPDOO PDPPDO SRUWLRQ RI WKH %&, PDPPDOLDQ FRPPXQLW\

PAGE 211

OHVV FRQVWDQW WKURXJKRXW WKH GLIIHUHQW KDELWDWV RI WKH 5LR 'RFH 3DUN DQG WKHUHIRUH H[HUW D VLPLODU HIIHFW DPRQJ WKH GLVWLQFW FRPPXQLWLHV 6SLQ\ UDWV KDYH RQ DQ DQHFGRWDO DFFRXQW EHHQ GHVFULEHG DV WKH EDVH VRXUFH RI SURWHLQ IRU ORZODQG SUHGDWRUV RI WKH %UD]LOLDQ 6XEUHJLRQ +HUVKNRYLW] SDJH f 5HFHQWO\ (PPRQV f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f RI VSLQ\ UDWV IURP WKH ODUJHU IRUHVW SORWV %HFDXVH RI VPDOO VDPSOH VL]HV LW LV GLIILFXOW WR JHQHUDOL]H WKH FRQFOXVLRQV RI WKH HIIHFWV RI SUHGDWLRQ WR DOO PHPEHUV RI WKH VPDOO PDPPDO FRPPXQLW\ 1RQHWKHOHVV WKHUH DUH VXJJHVWLRQV WKDW 'LGHOSKLV

PAGE 212

PDUVXSLDO LV E\ ORFDOO\ GHSUHVVLQJ WKH UHODWLYH DEXQGDQFHV RI RWKHU VSHFLHV PD\ DIIHFW WKH VSHFLHV ULFKQHVV DQG VSHFLHV GLYHUVLW\ RI WKHVH FRPPXQLWLHV &KDSWHU VKRZHG WKDW ODUJHU IRUHVW SORWV HVSHFLDOO\ VHFRQGDU\ IRUHVW VLWHV WHQG ERWK WR KDYH D KLJKHU QXPEHU RI VSHFLHV DQG DOVR WR EH PRUH GLYHUVH +HUH GHWHUPLQHG WKDW WKH QXPEHU RI PDUVXSLDO LV 1f RQ D WUDQVHFW WUDSOLQH VLJQLILFDQWO\ DIIHFWV WKH WRWDO QXPEHU RI VSHFLHV SUHVHQW RQ D WUDSOLQH 6 Q1f 5 S Q f ,I ZH VHSDUDWH WKH DQDO\VLV E\ IRUHVW W\SH 'LGHOSKLV DEXQGDQFHV DFFRXQW IRU D ODUJHU DPRXQW RI YDULDWLRQ LQ WKH QXPEHU RI VSHFLHV RI VHFRQGDU\ IRUHVWV 5 f! EXW GR QRW DIIHFW VSHFLHV ULFKQHVV RI SULPDU\ IRUHVWV 3UHGDWLRQ RQ WKH URGHQW VSHFLHV 3URHFKLP\V VHWRVXV PD\ DOVR KDYH D SRVLWLYH LPSDFW RQ RWKHU VSHFLHV LQ WKH FRPPXQLW\ $OWKRXJK QR FRPSHWLWLYH LQWHUDFWLRQV ZHUH GHWHFWHG EHWZHHQ VSLQ\ UDWV DQG RWKHU VSHFLHV QRWHG WKDW HLJKW RI IRXUWHHQ VSHFLHV LQ WKH ODUJHVW VHFRQGDU\ SORW ZKHUH QR 3URHFKLP\V ZHUH UHFRUGHG ZHUH DOVR URGHQWV bf LQ VKDUS FRQWUDVW ZLWK WKH RWKHU IRUHVWV ZKLFK KDG IURP WZR WR ILYH VSHFLHV 2I WKHVH WKH WKUHH 2U\]RP\V VSHFLHV DUH WURSKLFDOO\ VLPLODU WR 3URHFKLP\V (LVHQEHUJ DQG 7KRULQJWRQ f ZKLOH WKH GLHWV RI WZR RWKHUV 2[\P\FWHUXV VS DQG $NRGRQ FXUVRUf KDYH WKH LQVHFWLYRUH DQG WR D OHVVHU H[WHQW WKH IUXJLYRUH SRUWLRQV RI WKHLU GLHWV RYHUODSSLQJ ZLWK VSLQ\ UDWV 7KHUHIRUH WKH H[LVWHQFH RI FRPSHWLWLRQ IRU UHVRXUFHV LV QRW DQ XQOLNHO\ SRVVLELOLW\

PAGE 213

$Q DOWHUQDWLYH WR WKH SUHGDWLRQ K\SRWKHVLV SUHVHQWHG KHUH UHODWHV WR GHQVLW\ FRPSHQVDWLRQ PHFKDQLVPV &RG\ f 2QH FRXOG FRQWHQG WKDW SRSXODWLRQV RI VSHFLHV GR JR H[WLQFW LQ VPDOO DUHDV GXH WR GHPRJUDSKLFVWRFKDVWLF DQG JHQHWLF FRQVLGHUDWLRQV 0DF$UWKXU DQG :LOVRQ 6RXOH f DQG WKXV LQGHSHQGHQW RI SUHGDWRU SUHVVXUH 7KH KLJKHU DEXQGDQFHV RI 'LGHOSKLV PDUVXSLDO LV FRXOG EH H[SODLQHG DV WKH UHVXOW RI WKH VSHFLHV EURDGHQLQJ LWV QLFKH VSDFH ZKHUH LW EHFDPH OHVV FRQVWUDLQHG WKURXJK WKH ORFDO H[WLQFWLRQ RI RWKHU VSHFLHV 0DF$UWKXU HW DO f 7ZR REVHUYDWLRQV UHIXWH WKLV K\SRWKHVLV )LUVW WKH VL]HV RI WKH VPDOO IRUHVW SORWV LQ WKLV VWXG\ DUH SUREDEO\ QRW HQRXJK WR UHDGLO\ GULYH ORFDO VPDOO PDPPDO SRSXODWLRQV WR H[WLQFWLRQ ,Q DGGLWLRQ UHFRORQL]DWLRQ SRWHQWLDO DPRQJ WURSLFDO VPDOO PDPPDOV PD\ EH YHU\ KLJK LQ QRW WUXO\ LQVXODU FLUFXPVWDQFHV DQG WKLV LV SUREDEO\ WKH VLWXDWLRQ KHUH 0DOFROP VHH DOVR WKH SUREOHP RI FRPSHQVDWRU\ HIIHFWV DV VXJJHVWHG E\ /RPROLQR f %RWK DVSHFWV ZRXOG SUHYHQW RU DW OHDVW UHWDUG GHPRJUDSKLF FROODSVHV LQ WKH VPDOO IRUHVWV $ IXUWKHU LQGLFDWLRQ DULVHV IURP WKH REVHUYDWLRQ WKDW ERWK PHGLXP VL]H DQG RQH VPDOO VL]H IRUHVWV KDG WKH VDPH QXPEHU RI VSHFLHV QLQHf ZKLFK LV HYHQ PRUH WKDQ RQH RI WKH ODUJH IRUHVW SORWV VL[f VXJJHVWLQJ WKDW ORFDO H[WLQFWLRQ LV DQ LQIUHTXHQW RFFXUUHQFH 6HFRQGO\ WKH ILQHJUDLQHG SDWWHUQ RI WKH LQWHUDFWLRQV REVHUYHG KHUH EHWZHHQ 'BA PDUVXSLDO LV DQG RWKHU VSHFLHV VXJJHVWV WKDW LQGHHG DFWLYH FRPSHWLWLRQ DQG SRVVLEO\ SUHGDWLRQ E\ RSRVVXPV LV WDNLQJ SODFH

PAGE 214

:H FDQ QRW WRWDOO\ GLVFDUG KRZHYHU SRVVLEOH FRPSHQVDWRU\ UHVSRQVHV LQ VPDOOHU SORWV VSHFLDOO\ LQ WKH IRUP RI H[FHVV GHQVLW\ FRPSHQVDWLRQ &DVH HW DO )DHWK f 7KLV SDUWLFXODU IRUP RI UHVSRQVH VKRXOG RFFXU ZKHQ PRVW VSHFLHV PLVVLQJ RU DW PXFK ORZHU GHQVLWLHV DW WKDW FRPPXQLW\ DUH UHSUHVHQWHG E\ LQWHUIHUHQFH FRPSHWLWRUV ,Q WKLV ZD\ UHVRXUFHV WKDW ZHUH UHOHDVHG IROORZLQJ WKH ORVV RU UHGXFWLRQ LQ SRSXODWLRQ VL]HVf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f EXW WKH HIIHFW LV OHVV FRQVSLFXRXV LQ SULPDU\ IRUHVWV )LJXUH f 7KLV LV PRVW SUREDEO\ UHODWHG WR IRUHVW VWUXFWXUH 6PDOO PDPPDO GLYHUVLW\ KDV EHHQ IRXQG WR EH GHSHQGHQW RQ YDULDEOH OHYHOV RI PDJQLWXGH RQ KDELWDW VWUXFWXUDO SDUDPHWHUV DQG HVSHFLDOO\ RQ KDELWDW KHWHURJHQHLW\ 5R]HQ]ZHLJ DQG :LQDNXU 0f&ORVNH\ 'XHVHU DQG 6KXJDUW $XJXVW f $V LW ZDV K\SRWKHVL]HG EHIRUH &KDSWHU f WKH UHODWLYH KRPRJHQHLW\ RI SULPDU\ IRUHVWV LQ UHODWLRQ WR VHFRQGDU\ VWDJHV ERWK KRUL]RQWDOO\ DQG YHUWLFDOO\ SUHYHQWV DGGLWLRQDO VSHFLHV WR EH VXFFHVVIXOO\ SDFNHG LQ WKH DYDLODEOH KDELWDW HYHQ LI DUHD LV

PAGE 215

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f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f&ORVNH\ &RG\ 0HVHUYH 1LWLNPDQ DQG 0DUHV f 7KLV PHWKRG KDV EHHQ FULWLFL]HG DV RWKHU K\SRWKHVHV PD\ DOVR

PAGE 216

DSSO\ IRU D VDPH KDELWDW VHJUHJDWLRQ RXWFRPH 0D\ f 9HW RWKHU VWXGLHV FRQGXFWHG FRQFRPLWDQWO\ ZLWK UHPRYDO H[SHULPHQWV KDYH ERWK \LHOGHG FRQFOXVLRQV LPSOLFDWLQJ FRPSHWLWLRQ DV D VWUXFWXUDO IRUFH LQ WKH FRPPXQLW\ HJ 3ULFH f DV ZHOO DV IDLOLQJ WR GHWHFW LW DV D PDMRU IDFWRU HJ 0XUXD HW DO f 6LPLODU HIIRUWV WR DYRLG WKH SUREOHPV UHFRJQL]HG E\ 0D\ f DUH UHSUHVHQWHG E\ RWKHU DSSURDFKHV ZKLFK LQIHU FRPSHWLWLRQ E\ DQDO\]LQJ ERWK KDELWDW UHTXLUHPHQWV DQG VSHFLHV LQWHUDFWLRQV LQ D VDPH UHJUHVVLRQ PRGHO +DOOHWW DQG 3LPP +DOOHWW 'XHVHU DQG 3RUWHU /DFKHU HW DO LQ SUHVVf +RZHYHU DV 3LHORX f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

PAGE 217

VSHFLHV ZKLFK FDQ EH UHDGLO\ WUDSSHG KDV D ZLGH GLVWULEXWLRQ DQG E\ EHLQJ H[WUHPHO\ FRPPRQ GRHV QRW SRVH SUREOHPV ZLWK FRQGXFWLQJ QDWXUDO UHPRYDO H[SHULPHQWV 6XFK VWXGLHV VKRXOG EH XUJHQWO\ FRQGXFWHG DV WKH SRVVLEOH FRQVHUYDWLRQ LPSOLFDWLRQV RI FRQILUPLQJ WKHVH UHVXOWV DUH IDU UHDFKLQJ 7KH GHIRUHVWDWLRQ SURFHVV LQ QHRWURSLFDO UHJLRQV HVSHFLDOO\ LQ DUHDV OLNH WKH %UD]LOLDQ $WODQWLF IRUHVW )RQVHFD Df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

PAGE 218

&+$37(5 &21&/86,21 $1' 6<17+(6,6 7KH UHVXOWV REWDLQHG LQ WKLV VWXG\ FRQILUPHG WKH SUHYLRXVO\ VXVSHFWHG QRWLRQ WKDW $WODQWLF IRUHVW VPDOO PDPPDO FRPPXQLWLHV DUH GLYHUVH DQG ULFK 'DYLV /DHPHUW HW DO f HVSHFLDOO\ ZKHQ FRPSDUHG WR DGMRLQLQJ ELRPHV OLNH WKH &HUUDGR $OKR DQG 3HUHLUD f DQG WKH &DDWLQJD 0DUHV HW DO f 6SHFLHV ULFKQHVV LV DOVR FRPSDUDEOH DQG RIWHQ VXSHULRU WR $PD]RQLDQ WURSLFDO IRUHVWV VHH 0DOFROP .RQHFQ\ LQ SUHVVf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f 7KLV SUREOHP GHVHUYHV IXUWKHU LQYHVWLJDWLRQ VLQFH QR VLQJOH FRQFOXVLRQ ZDV GHILQLWHO\ GUDZQ

PAGE 219

, VKRXOG DOVR VWUHVV WKDW WKH WUDSSLQJ PHWKRGV XVHG ZHUH QRW DGHTXDWH WR UHSUHVHQW WKH ZKROH FRPSOHPHQW RI WKH PDUVXSLDO DQG HVSHFLDOO\ WKH URGHQW FRPPXQLWLHV 7KH WKLFNWDLOHG RSRVVXP /XWUHROLQD FUDVVLFDXGDWD ZDV QRW UHFRUGHG SUREDEO\ EHFDXVH LW RFFXUV SULPDULO\ LQ ZHWODQG KDELWDW 1RZDN DQG 3DUDGLVR f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f 1RQH RI WKHVH VSHFLHV ZDV KRZHYHU V\VWHPDWLFDOO\ WUDSSHG KLQGHULQJ DQ\ FRPSDULVRQV EHWZHHQ IRUHVWV SORWV RI GLIIHUHQW VL]HV DQG VWUXFWXUH 1RQHWKHOHVV LW LV IHOW WKDW WKH RFFXUUHQFH RI DOO WKHVH VSHFLHV ZDV QRW GHSHQGHQW RQ WKH WZR PDLQ YDULDEOHV PHDVXUHG LQ WKLV VWXG\ LH IRUHVW VL]H DQG KDELWDW VWUXFWXUH 'HVSLWH WKH WUDGLWLRQDO YLHZ WKDW WURSLFDO IRUHVW GLYHUVLW\ GHSHQGV RQ WKH PDLQWHQDQFH RI FOLPD[ VWDJHV 'HQVORZ f

PAGE 220

GLVWXUEDQFH ZDV REVHUYHG WR SURPRWH VSHFLHV GLYHUVLW\ LQ WKH FRPPXQLWLHV VWXGLHG DV ZDV RULJLQDOO\ VXJJHVWHG E\ &RQQHOO f &RUURERUDWLQJ UHFHQW ILQGLQJV LQ RWKHU WURSLFDO VPDOO PDPPDO FRPPXQLWLHV &KDUOHV'RPLQLTXH 'HODQ\ ,VDELU\H%DVXWD DQG .DVHQHQH f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f ZDV QRW LQFRPSDWLEOH ZLWK WKH UHVXOWV REWDLQHG HVSHFLDOO\ VLQFH WKLV VWXG\ GHDOW ZLWK VSHFLHV SRVVLEO\ ZLWK KLJK FRORQL]DWLRQ SRWHQWLDO 0DOFROP f %XW RQ WKH RWKHU KDQG WKH SUR[LPDWH PHFKDQLVP E\ ZKLFK GLYHUVLW\ LQ DUHDV RI LQFUHDVLQJ VL]H LV SURPRWHG DQG PDLQWDLQHG LV EHVW GHVFULEHG E\ WKH VXJJHVWLRQ SXW IRUZDUG E\ 0DF$UWKXU f DQG :LOOLDPV f 6HFRQGDU\ IRUHVWV DUH PRUH GLYHUVH GXH WR ERWK WKH LQFUHDVH LQ DOSKDGLYHUVLW\ SRVVLEOH E\ WKH SUHVHQFH RI ZHOO GHYHORSHG

PAGE 221

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f&ORVNH\ 'XHVHU DQG 6KXJDUW $XJXVW 1LWLNPDQ DQG 0DUHV f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

PAGE 222

7KH SUHYLRXV UHVXOW OHDGV QDWXUDOO\ WR WKH TXHVWLRQ RI ZKDW LQIOXHQFHV 'LGHOSKLV PDUVXSLDO LVf GHQVLWLHV EHWZHHQ IRUHVW SORWV 3UHGDWLRQ E\ RWKHU YHUWHEUDWHV HVSHFLDOO\ PDPPDOLDQ FDUQLYRUHV DQG RZOV LV WKH PRVW OLNHO\ H[SODQDWLRQ 2SRVVXPV DUH RQH RI WKH PRVW IUHTXHQW DQG UHOLDEOH SUH\ LWHPV IRU PDPPDOLDQ FDUQLYRUHV LQ QHRWURSLFDO IRUHVW FRPPXQLWLHV /XGORZ DQG 6XQTXLVW (PPRQV .RQHFQ\ LQ SUHVVf 6LQFH ORQJWHUP YLDELOLW\ RI WRS SUHGDWRU SRSXODWLRQV GHSHQGV RQ WKH VL]H RI WKH DUHD ZH VKRXOG H[SHFW SUHGDWLRQ SUHVVXUH WR EH ORZHU RU QRQH[LVWHQWf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

PAGE 223

WKH $WODQWLF FRDVWDO UHJLRQ RI %UD]LO GLG QRW \HW OHDG WR PDVVLYH H[WLQFWLRQV RI WKHVH VPDOO PDPPDOLDQ VSHFLHV EXW WKH VPDOO DUHD RI WKH IRUHVWV PD\ LQ WKH ORQJ UXQ OHDG WR WKH H[WLQFWLRQ RI VRPH VSHFLHV *LYHQ WKDW RQO\ DERXW b RI WKH UHJLRQ LV SUHVHQWO\ IRUHVWHG )RQVHFD f DQG WKDW DEDQGRQHG SODQWDWLRQV DQG SDVWXUHV H[LVW )RQVHFD f WKHUH LV D FKDQFH WKDW HIIRUWV WR LQFUHDVH WKH VL]H RI SURWHFWHG DUHDV ZLOO FOHDUO\ \LHOG EHQHILFLDO UHVXOWV 6RPH \RXQJHU IRUHVWV DQG RWKHU DEDQGRQHG ILHOGV WKDW DUH QRW RYHUH[SORLWHG RU HURGHG KDYH EHHQ REVHUYHG WR SRVVHVV D KLJK UHJHQHUDWLRQ SRWHQWLDO 7KHVH KDYH WR EH FRQVLGHUHG D YHU\ LPSRUWDQW FRQVHUYDWLRQ UHVRXUFH DQG WKHLU SUHVHUYDWLRQ DQG SURWHFWLRQ VKRXOG EH DFWLYHO\ VWLPXODWHG

PAGE 224

/,7(5$785( &,7(' $OKR & 5 6PDOO PDPPDO SRSXODWLRQV RI %UD]LOLDQ &HUUDGR WKH GHSHQGHQFH RI DEXQGDQFH DQG GLYHUVLW\ RQ KDELWDW FRPSOH[LW\ 5HY %UDVLO %LRO f %UD]LOLDQ URGHQWV WKHLU KDELWDWV DQG KDELWV ,Q 0 $ 0DUHV DQG + + *HQRZD\V HGVf 0DPPDOLDQ %LRORJ\ LQ 6RXWK $PHULFD 6SHFLDO 3XEOLFDWLRQ 6HULHV 9ROXPH 3\PDWXQLQJ /DERUDWRU\ RI (FRORJ\ 8QLYHUVLW\ RI 3LWWVEXUJK 3UHVV 3LWWVEXUJK / $ 3HUHLUD 3RSXODWLRQ HFRORJ\ RI D &HUUDGR URGHQW FRPPXQLW\ LQ &HQWUDO %UD]LO 5HY %UDV %LRO f DQG $ & 3DXOD 3DWWHUQV RI KDELWDW XWLOL]DWLRQ E\ VPDOO PDPPDO SRSXODWLRQV LQ FHUUDGR ELRPH RI FHQWUDO %UD]LO 0DPPDOLD f $OPHLGD ) $ DQG 0 = 3 5RFKD (VWDEHOHFLPHQWR GH DUHDV PLQLPDV GH SUHVHUYDFDR GRV GLYHUVRV HFRVLVWHPDV WHUUHVWUHV GR %UDVLO ,Q (QFRQWU 1DFLRQDO VREUH &RQVHUYDFDR GH )DXQD H 5HFXUVRV )DXQLVWLFRV RUJDQL]HG E\ ,%') DQG $FDGHPLD %UDVLOHLUD GH &LHQFLDV %UDVLOLD ) $ORQVR 0 7 $ 9HJHWDFDR 5HJLDR 6XGHVWH ,Q *HRJUDILD GR %UDVLO ,QVWLWXWR %UDVLOHLUR GH *HRJUDILD H (VWDWLVWLFD ,%*( 5LR GH -DQHLUR 5 $WUDPHQWRZLF] 0 ,QIOXHQFH GX PLOLHX VXU OfDFWLYLWH ORFRPRWULFH HW OD UHSURGXFWLRQ GH &DOXURP\V SKLODQGHU /f 5HYXH Gf(FRORJLH $XJXVW 3 9 7KH UROH RI KDELWDW FRPSOH[LW\ DQG KHWHURJHQHLW\ LQ VWUXFWXULQJ WURSLFDO PDPPDO FRPPXQLWLHV (FRORJ\ 3RSXODWLRQ HFRORJ\ RI VPDOO PDPPDOV LQ WKH /ODQRV RI 9HQH]XHOD ,Q 5 ( 0DUWLQ DQG % 5 &KDSPDQ HGVf &RQWULEXWLRQV LQ 0DPPDORJ\ LQ +RQRU RI 5REHUW / 3DFNDUG 7H[DV 7HFK 8QLYHUVLW\ /XEERFN 7H[DV

PAGE 225

$XVWDG 6 1 DQG 0 ( 6XQTXLVW 6H[UDWLR PDQLSXODWLRQ LQ WKH FRPPRQ RSRVVXP 1DWXUH $YLOD3LUHV ) DQG ( *RXYHD 0DPLIHURV GR 3DUTXH 1DFLRQDO GR ,WDWLDLD %RO 0XV 1DF %LJJHU 0 2VFLOODWLRQV RI WURSLFDO LQVHFW SRSXODWLRQV 1DWXUH %LVEDO ) )RRG KDELWV RI VRPH QHRWURSLFDO FDUQLYRUHV LQ 9HQH]XHOD 0DPPDOLD &DUQLYRUDf 0DPPDOLD f DQG 2MDVWL 1LFKR WUILFR GHO ]RUUR &HUGRF\RQ WKRXV 0DPPDOLD &DUQLYRUDf $FW %LRO 9HQH] f %LVKRS 5 $Q DQQRWDWHG OLVW RI &DYLRPRUSK URGHQWV FROOHFWHG LQ 1RUWK(DVWHUQ 0DWR *URVVR %UD]LO 0DPPDOLD f %ODNH DQG 5 .DUU %UHHGLQJ ELUGV RI LVRODWHG ZRRGORWV DUHD DQG KDELWDW UHODWLRQVKLSV (FRORJ\ %RHFNOHQ : (IIHFWV RI KDELWDW KHWHURJHQHLW\ RQ WKH VSHFLHVDUHD UHODWLRQVKLSV RI IRUHVW ELUGV %LRJHRJU %RUFKHUW 0 DQG 5 / +DQVHQ (IIHFWV RI IORRGLQJ DQG ZLOGILUH RQ YDOOH\ VLGH ZHW FDPSR URGHQWV LQ &HQWUDO %UD]LO 5HY %UDV %LRO f %RWHOKR 5 DQG 3 0 /LQDUGL $OJXQV HFWRSDUDVLWRV GH URHGRUHV VLOYHVWUHV GR PXQLFLSLR GH &DUDWLQJD 0LQDV *HUDLV %UDVLO 5HODFRHV SXOJDKRVSHGHLUR 5HY %UDV (QW f %RXUOLHUH ) 6SHFLHV ULFKQHVV LQ WURSLFDO IRUHVW YHUWHEUDWHV ,Q 0DXU\/HFKRQ 0 +DGOH\ DQG 7
PAGE 226

%URNDZ 1 9 / 7UHHIDOOV 5HJURZWK DQG &RPPXQLW\ VWUXFWXUH LQ WURSLFDO IRUHVWV ,Q 6 7 $ 3LFNHWW DQG 3 6 :KLWH HGVf 7KH (FRORJ\ RI 1DWXUDO 'LVWXUEDQFH DQG 3DWFK '\QDPLFV $FDGHPLF 3UHVV 1HZ
PAGE 227

0 $WUDPHQWRZLF] 0 &KDUOHV'RPLQLTXH + *HUDUG $ +ODGLN & 0 +ODGLN DQG 0 3UHYRVW /HV PDPPLIHUHV IUXJLYRUHV DUERULFROHV QRFWXUQHV GfXQH IRUHW JX\DQDLVH LQWHUUHODWLRQV SODQWDQLPDX[ 5HY 'f(FRORJLH &RG\ 0 / &RPSHWLWLRQ DQG WKH 6WUXFWXUH RI %LUG &RPPXQLWLHV 3ULQFHWRQ 8QLYHUVLW\ 3UHVV 3ULQFHWRQ 1HZ -HUVH\ 7RZDUGV D WKHRU\ RI FRQWLQHQWDO VSHFLHV GLYHUVLWLHV ELUG GLVWULEXWLRQV RYHU PHGLWHUUDQHDQ KDELWDW JUDGLHQWV ,Q 0 / &RG\ DQG 0 'LDPRQG (FRORJ\ DQG (YROXWLRQ RI &RPPXQLWLHV +DUYDUG 8QLYHUVLW\ 3UHVV &DPEULGJH 0DVVDFKXVVHWV &RLPEUD)LOKR $ ) DQG 5 $ 0LWWHUPHLHU &RQVHUYDWLRQ RI WKH %UD]LOLDQ OLRQ WDPDULQV /HRQWRSLWKHFXV URVDOLDf ,Q 3ULQFH 5DLQLHU RI 0RQDFR DQG + %RXUQH HGVf 3ULPDWH &RQVHUYDWLRQ $FDGHPLF 3UHVV 1HZ
PAGE 228

&RUGHUR $ DQG 5 $ 1LFRODV % )HHGLQJ KDELWV RI WKH RSRVVXP 'LGHOSKLV PDUVXSLDO LVf LQ 1RUWKHUQ 9HQH]XHOD )LHOGLDQD =RRORJ\ &UHVSR $ (FRORJLD GH OD FRPXQLGDG GH PDPLIHURV GHO SDUTXH QDFLRQDO ,JXD]X 0LVVLRQHV 5HY 0XV $UJ %HUQDUGLQR 5LYDGDYLD ff§ 'DOE\ 3 / %LRORJ\ RI 3DPSD 5RGHQWV 0LFKLJDQ 6WDWH 8QLYHUVLW\ 6HULHV 9RO 1XPEHU (DVW /DQVLQJ 0LFKLJDQ 'DUOLQJWRQ 3 =RRJHRJUDSK\ WKH *HRJUDSKLFDO 'LVWULEXWLRQ RI $QLPDOV :LOH\ DQG 6RQV /RQGRQ 'DYLV ( 7KH DQQXDO F\FOH RI SODQWV PRVTXLWRHV ELUGV DQG PDPPDOV LQ WZR %UD]LOLDQ IRUHVWV (FRORJLFDO 0RQRJUDSKV 1RWHV RQ WKH OLIH KLVWRULHV RI VRPH %UD]LOLDQ PDPPDOV %RO 0XV 1DF 'HODQ\ 0 (FRORJ\ RI VPDOO URGHQWV LQ $IULFD 0DPPDO 5HY ff§ 'HQVORZ 6 'LVWXUEDQFHPHGLDWHG FRH[LVWHQFH RI VSHFLHV ,Q 6 7 $ 3LFNHWW DQG 3 6 :KLWH HGVf 7KH (FRORJ\ RI 1DWXUDO 'LVWXUEDQFH DQG 3DWFK '\QDPLFV $FDGHPLF 3UHVV 1HZ
PAGE 229

DQG + + 6KXJDUW 0LFURKDELWDWV LQ D IRUHVWIORRU VPDOO PDPPDO IDXQD (FRORJ\ ff§ (LVHQEHUJ ) 7KH GHQVLW\ DQG ELRPDVV RI WURSLFDO PDPPDOV ,Q 0 6RXOH DQG % :LOFR[ HGVf &RQVHUYDWLRQ %LRORJ\ $Q (YROXWLRQDU\(FRORJLFDO 3HUVSHFWLYH 6LQDXHU 3UHVV 6XQGHUODQG 0DVVDFKXVHWWV (LVHQEHUJ ) 7KH 0DPPDOLDQ 5DGLDWLRQV $Q $QDO\VLV RI 7UHQGV LQ (YROXWLRQ $GDSWDWLRQ DQG %HKDYLRU 8QLYHUVLW\ RI &KLFDJR 3UHVV &KLFDJR 0 $ 2f&RQQHOO DQG 3 9 $XJXVW 'HQVLW\ SURGXFWLYLW\ DQG GLVWULEXWLRQ RI PDPPDOV LQ WZR 9HQH]XHODQ KDELWDWV ,Q ) (LVHQEHUJ HGf 9HUWHEUDWH (FRORJ\ LQ WKH 1RUWKHUQ 1HRWURSLFV 6PLWKVRQLDQ ,QVWLWXWLRQ 3UHVV :DVKLQJWRQ & DQG 5 : 7KRULQJWRQ -U $ SUHOLPLQDU\ DQDO\VLV RI D 1HRWURSLFDO PDPPDO IDXQD %LRWURSLFD f (LWHQ $Q RXWOLQH RI WKH YHJHWDWLRQ RI 6RXWK $PHULFD 6\PS &RQJU ,QW 3ULPDWRO 6RF WK (OWRQ & &RQVHUYDWLRQ DQG WKH ORZ SURGXFWLYLW\ RI LQYHUWHEUDWHV LQVLGH QHRWURSLFDO UDLQIRUHVW %LRO &RQV (POHQ 0 (FRORJ\ $Q (YROXWLRQDU\ $SSURDFK $GGLVRQ:HVOH\ 3XEOLVKLQJ &RPSDQ\ 5HDGLQJ 0DVVDFKXVHWWV (PPRQV / + (FRORJ\ RI 3URHFKLP\V 5RGHQWLD (FK\P\LGDHf LQ 6RXWK(DVWHUQ 3HUX 7URS (FRO f *HRJUDSKLFDO YDULDWLRQ LQ GHQVLWLHV DQG GLYHUVLWLHV RI QRQIO\LQJ PDPPDOV LQ $PD]RQLD %LRWURSLFD f &RPSDUDWLYH IHHGLQJ HFRORJ\ RI IHOLGV LQ D QHRWURSLFDO UDLQIRUHVW %HKDY (FRO 6RFLRELRO $ *DXWLHU+LRQ DQG 'XERVW &RPPXQLW\ VWUXFWXUH RI WKH IUXJLYRURXVIROLYRURXV IRUHVW PDPPDOV RI *DERQ =RRO /RQG

PAGE 230

(QGHUV 5 0DPPDOLDQ OLIH KLVWRULHV IURP %DUUR &RORUDGR ,VODQG 3DQDPD %XOO 0XV &RPS =RRO )DHWK 6 + 'HQVLW\ FRPSHQVDWLRQ LQ 9HUWHEUDWHV DQG ,QYHUWHEUDWHV $ UHYLHZ DQG DQ ([SHULPHQW ,Q 5 6WURQJ -U 6LPEHUORII / $EHOH DQG $ % 7KLVWOH HGVf (FRORJLFDO &RPPXQLWLHV &RQFHSWXDO ,VVXHV DQG WKH (YLGHQFH 3ULQFHWRQ 8QLYHUVLW\ 3UHVV 3ULQFHWRQ 1HZ -HUVH\ DQG 7 & .DQH 8UEDQ ELRJHRJUDSK\ &LW\ 3DUNV DV LVODQGV IRU 'LSWHUD DQG &ROHSWHUD 2HFRORJLD )OHPLQJ 7 + 3RSXODWLRQ HFRORJ\ RI WKUHH VSHFLHV RI QHRWURSLFDO URGHQWV 0LVH 3XEO 0XV =RRO 8QLY 0LFKLJDQ $VSHFWV RI WKH SRSXODWLRQ G\QDPLFV RI WKUHH VSHFLHV RI RSRVVXPV LQ WKH 3DQDPD &DQDO ]RQH 0DPP 7KH UHSURGXFWLYH F\FOHV RI WKUHH VSHFLHV RI RSRVVXPV DQG RWKHU PDPPDOV LQ WKH 3DQDPD &DQDO =RQH 0DPP D 7KH SRSXODWLRQ HFRORJ\ RI WZR VSHFLHV RI &RVWD 5LFDQ KHWHURP\LG URGHQWV (FRORJ\ E 7KH UROH RI VPDOO PDPPDOV LQ WURSLFDO HFRV\VWHPV ,Q ) % *RO OH\ 3HWUXVHZLF] DQG / 5\V]NRZVNL HGVf 6PDOO 0DPPDOV 7KHLU SURGXFWLYLW\ DQG 3RSXODWLRQ '\QDPLFV &DPEULGJH 8QLYHUVLW\ 3UHVV &DPEULGJH )RQVHFD $ % 7KH UROH RI GHIRUHVWDWLRQ DQG SULYDWH UHVHUYHV LQ WKH FRQVHUYDWLRQ RI WKH ZRROO\ VSLGHU PRQNH\ %UDFK\WHOHV DUDFKQRLGHVf 0DVWHUfV 7KHVLV 8QLYHUVLW\ RI )ORULGD *DLQHVYLOOH )ORULGD D 7KH YDQLVKLQJ %UD]LOLDQ $WODQWLF IRUHVW %LRO &RQVHUY f E 2EVHUYDWLRQV RQ WKH HFRORJ\ RI WKH PXULTXL %UDFK\WHOHV DUDFKQRLGHV ( *HRIIUR\L f ,PSOLFDWLRQV IRU LWV FRQVHUYDWLRQ 3ULP &RQV

PAGE 231

/ ) % 0HOOR DQG +HUUPDQQ ,QYHQWDULDPHQWR GH PDPIHURV H HVWXGR GRV SDGURHV GH GLYHUVLGDGH GH HVSHFLHV GH SHTXHRV PDPLIHURV QD (3'$ GH 3HWLf§0LQDV *HUDLV 5HSRUW WR &(0,* %HOR +RUL]RQWH 0 DQG 5 5HGIRUG 7KH PDPPDOV RI ,%*(fV HFRORJLFDO UHVHUYH DQG DQ DQDO\VLV RI WKH UROH RI JDOOHU\ IRUHVWV LQ LQFUHDVLQJ GLYHUVLW\ 5HY %UDV %LRO )RVWHU 5 % 7KH VHDVRQDO UK\WKP RI IUXLWIDOO RQ %DUUR &RORUDGR ,VODQG ,Q ( /HLJK -U $ 6 5DQG 0 :LQGVRU HGVf 7KH (FRORJ\ RI D 7URSLFDO )RUHVWf§6HDVRQDO 5K\WKPV DQG /RQJ7HUP &KDQJHV 6PLWKVRQLDQ ,QVWLWXWLRQ 3UHVV :DVKLQJWRQ & *ODQ] : ( 7KH WHUUHVWULDO PDPPDO IDXQD RI %DUUR &RORUDGR ,VODQG &HQVXVHV DQG ORQJWHUP FKDQJHV ,Q ( /HLJK -U $ 6 5DQG 0 :LQGVRU HGVf 7KH (FRORJ\ RI D 7URSLFDO )RUHVWf§6HDVRQDO 5K\WKPV DQG /RQJ7HUP &KDQJHV 6PLWKVRQLDQ ,QVWLWXWLRQ 3UHVV :DVKLQJWRQ & *LW]HQVWHLQ 6 3 + +DUFRPEH DQG 5 6WUHQJ 'LVWXUEDQFH VXFFHVVLRQ DQG PDLQWHQDQFH RI VSHFLHV GLYHUVLW\ LQ DQ HDVW 7H[DV IRUHVW (FRO 0RQRJU f +DLU 0HDVXUHPHQW RI HFRORJLFDO GLYHUVLW\ ,Q 6 6FKHPQLW] HGf :LOGOLIH 0DQDJHPHQW 7HFKLTXHV 0DQXDO 7KH :LOGOLIH 6RFLHW\ :DVKLQJWRQ & +DOOHWW +DELWDW VHOHFWLRQ DQG WKH FRPPXQLW\ PDWUL[ RI D GHVHUW VPDOOPDPPDO IDXQD (FRORJ\ 0 $ 2f&RQQHOO DQG 5 / +RQH\FXWW &RPSHWLWLRQ DQG KDELWDW VHOHFWLRQ WHVW RI D WKHRU\ XVLQJ VPDOO PDPPDOV 2LNRV DQG 6 / 3LPP 'LUHFW HVWLPDWLRQ RI FRPSHWLWLRQ $PHU 1DW +DQGOH\ & -U 0DPPDOV RI WKH 6PLWKVRQLDQ 9HQH]XHOD SURMHFW %ULJKDP
PAGE 232

+DUULV / 7KH )UDJPHQWHG )RUHVW ,VODQG %LRJHRJUDSK\ 7KHRU\ DQG WKH 3UHVHUYDWLRQ RI %LRWLF 'LYHUVLW\ 8QLYHUVLW\ RI &KLFDJR 3UHVV &KLFDJR +HLGHPDQ 3 / 5 +HDQH\ 5 / 7KRPDV DQG 5 (ULFNVRQ 3DWWHUQV RI IDXQDO GLYHUVLW\ DQG VSHFLHV DEXQGDQFHV RI QRQYRODQW VPDOO PDPPDOV RQ QHJURV LVODQG 3KLOLSSLQHV 0DPP f +HUVKNRYLW] 3 7KH HYROXWLRQ RI PDPPDOV RQ VRXWKHUQ FRQWLQHQWV 9, 7KH UHFHQW PDPPDOV RI WKH QHRWURSLFDO UHJLRQ $ ]RRJHRJUDSKLFDO DQG HFRORJLFDO UHYLHZ 4XDUW 5HY %LRO +RUQ + 6 7KH HFRORJ\ RI VHFRQGDU\ VXFFHVVLRQ $QQ 5HY (FRO 6\VW +XHFN $V )ORUHVWDV GD $PHULFD GR 6XO (GLWRUD 3ROLJRQR 6DR 3DXOR %UD]LO +XQVDNHU (FRORJ\ RI 1HZ :RUOG PDUVXSLDOV ,Q +XQVDNHU HGf 7KH %LRORJ\ RI 0DUVXSLDOV $FDGHPLF 3UHVV 1HZ
PAGE 233

-RKQVRQ 1 &RQWURO RI QXPEHU RI ELUG VSHFLHV RQ PRQWDQH LVODQGV LQ WKH *UHDW %DVLQ (YROXWLRQ .DFKLJDQ 6 0XOWLYDULDWH 6WDWLVWLFDO $QDO\VLV 5DGLXV 3UHVV 1HZ
PAGE 234

/LGLFNHU -U : = 7KH UROH RI GLVSHUVDO LQ WKH GHPRJUDSK\ RI VPDOO PDPPDOV ,Q ) % *ROOH\ 3HWUXVHZLF] DQG / 5\V]NRZVNL HGVf 6PDOO 0DPPDOV 7KHLU 3URGXFWLYLW\ DQG 3RSXODWLRQ '\QDPLFV &DPEULGJH 8QLYHUVLW\ 3UHVV &DPEULGJH /OR\G 0 0HDQ &URZGLQJf $QLP (FRO /RLVHOOH % $ DQG : +RSSHV 1HVW SUHGDWLRQ LQ LQVXODU DQG PDLQODQG ORZODQG UDLQIRUHVW LQ 3DQDPD &RQGRU /RPROLQR 0 9 0DPPDOLDQ LVODQG ELRJUHRJUDSK\ HIIHFWV RI DUHD LVRODWLRQ DQG YDJLOLW\ 2HFRORJLD 0DPPDOLDQ FRPPXQLW\ VWUXFWXUH RQ LVODQGV WKH LPSRUWDQFH RI LPPLJUDWLRQ H[WLQFWLRQ DQG LQWHUDFWLYH HIIHFWV ,Q / 5 +HDQH\ DQG % 3HWHUVRQ HGVf ,VODQG %LRJHRJUDSK\ RI 0DPPDOV $FDGHPLF 3UHVV 1HZ
PAGE 235

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f 0DPPDOLDQ %LRORJ\ LQ 6RXWK $PHULFD 6SHF 3XEO 3\PDWXQLQJ /DERUDWRU\ RI (FRORJ\ 8QLYHUVLW\ RI 3LWWVEXUJK 0DUJXOHV & 5 DQG 0 % 8VKHU &ULWHULD XVHG LQ DVVHVVLQJ ZLOGOLIH FRQVHUYDWLRQ SRWHQWLDO D UHYLHZ %LRO &RQVHUY 0D\ 5 0 3DWWHUQV RI VSHFLHV DEXQGDQFH DQG GLYHUVLW\ ,Q 0 / &RG\ DQG 0 'LDPRQG HGVf (FRORJ\ DQG (YROXWLRQ RI &RPPXQLWLHV +DUYDUG 8QLY 3UHVV +DUYDUG 0DVVDFKXVHWWV 0f&ORVNH\ 5 7 &RPPXQLW\ VWUXFWXUH LQ V\PSDWULF URGHQWV (FRORJ\ 0HOOR/HLWDR & $V ]RQDV GH IDXQD GD $PHULFD 7URSLFDO 5HY %UDV *HRJU 0HO $ 2EVHUYDFRHV SUHOLPLQDUHV VREUH D HFRORJLD GH DOJXPDV HVSHFLHV GH URHGRUHV GR &HUUDGR PXQLFLSLR GH )RUPRVD *RLDV %UDVLO 5HY %UDV 3HVT 0HG %LRO f 0HVHUYH 3 / 5HVRXUFH SDUWLWLRQLQJLQ D &KLOHDQ VHPLDULG VPDOO PDPPDO FRPPXQLW\ $QLP (FRO 0LOHV 0 $ $ $ GH 6RX]D DQG 0 0 3RYRD 0DPPDO WUDFNLQJ DQG QHVW ORFDWLRQ LQ %UD]LOLDQ IRUHVW ZLWK DQ LPSURYHG VSRRODQGLQH GHYLFH =RRO /RQG

PAGE 236

0LWWHUPHLHU 5 $ $ ) &RLPEUD)LOKR &RQVWDEOH $ % 5\ODQGV DQG & 9DOOH &RQVHUYDWLRQ RI SULPDWHV LQ WKH $WODQWLF IRUHVWV RI (DVWHUQ %UD]LO ,QW =RR
PAGE 237

3KLOOLSV & DQG -RQHV 1RWHV RQ UHSURGXFWLRQ DQG GHYHORSPHQW LQ WKH IRXUH\HG RSRVVXP 3KL ODQGHU RSRVVXP LQ 1LFDUDJXD 0DPP f 3LDQND ( 5 (YROXWLRQDU\ (FRORJ\ +DUSHU DQG 5RZ &DPEULGJH 0DVVDFKXVHWWV 3LHORX ( & 3RSXODWLRQ DQG &RPPXQLW\ (FRORJ\ *RUGRQ DQG %UHDFK 3XEOLVKHUV 1HZ
PAGE 238

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f 7KH (FRORJ\ RI D 7URSLFDO )RUHVW6HDVRQDO 5K\WKPV DQG /RQJ7HUP &KDQJHV 6PLWKVRQLDQ ,QVWLWXWLRQ 3UHVV :DVKLQJWRQ '& ( *ODQ] DQG ( /HLJK -U 3RSXODWLRQ UHJXODWLRQ LQ VRPH WHUUHVWULDO IUXJLYRUHV ,Q ( /HLJK $ 6 5DQG DQG 0 :LQGVRU HGVf 7KH (FRORJ\ RI D 7URSLFDO )RUHVW6HDVRQDO 5K\WKPV DQG /RQJ7HUP &KDQJHV 6PLWKVRQLDQ ,QVWLWXWLRQ 3UHVV :DVKLQJWRQ & 6RNDO 5 5 DQG 5RKOI ) %LRPHWU\ : + )UHHPDQ &R 1HZ
PAGE 239

6WUHLOHLQ 5 %HKDYLRU HFRORJ\ DQG GLVWULEXWLRQ RI WKH 6RXWK $PHULFDQ PDUVXSLDOV ,Q 0 $ 0DUHV DQG + + *HQRZD\V HGVf 0DPPDO LQ %LRORJ\ LQ 6RXWK $PHULFD 6SHFLDO 3XEOLFDWLRQ 6HULHV 3\PDWXQLQJ /DERUDWRU\ RI (FRORJ\ 8QLYHUVLW\ RI 3LWWVEXUJK 3UHVV 3LWWVEXUJK 6XQTXLVW 0 ( 6 1 $XVWDG DQG ) 6XQTXLVW 0RYHPHQW SDWWHUQV DQG KRPH UDQJH LQ WKH FRPPRQ RSRVVXP 'LGHOSKLV PDUVXSLDO LVf 0DPP f 7HUERUJK : : )LW]SDWULFN DQG / (PPRQV $QQRWDWHG FKHFNOLVW RI ELUG DQG PDPPDO VSHFLHV RI &RFKD &DVKX ELRORJLFDO VWDWLRQ 0DQX 1DWLRQDO 3DUN )LHOGLDQD 7\QGDOH%LVFRH & + DQG 5 % 0DFNHQ]LH 5HSURGXFWLRQ LQ 'LGHOSKLV PDUVXSLDO LV DQG 'AB DOELYHQWULV LQ &RORPELD 0DPP f 8VKHU 0 % :LOGOLIH &RQVHUYDWLRQ (YDOXDWLRQ &KDSPDQ DQG +DO 1HZ
PAGE 240

:LOOLJ 0 5 5 2ZHQ DQG 5 / &ROEHUW $VVHVVPHQW RI PRUSKRPHWULF YDULDWLRQ LQ QDWXUDO SRSXODWLRQV WKH LQDGHTXDF\ RI WKH XQLYDULDWH DSSURDFK 6\VW =RRO f :LOOLV ( 7KH FRPSRVLWLRQ RI DYLDQ FRPPXQLWLHV LQ UHPDQHVFHQW ZRRGORWV LQ VRXWKHUQ %UD]LO 3DSLV $YXOVRV =RRO f :ROGD + 6HDVRQDO IOXFWXDWLRQV LQ UDLQIDOO IRRG DQG DEXQGDQFH RI WURSLFDO LQVHFWV $QLP (FRO :ULJKW 3 & 7KH FRVWV DQG EHQHILWV RI QRFWXUQDOLW\ IRU $RWXV WULYLUJDWXV 7KH QLJKW PRQNH\f 3K 'LVVHUWDWLRQ &LW\ 8QLYHUVLW\ RI 1HZ
PAGE 241

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

PAGE 242

, FHUWLI\ WKDW KDYH UHDG WKLV VWXG\ DQG WKDW Q P\ RSLQLRQ LW FRQIRUPV WR DFFHSWDEOH VWDQGDUGV RI VFKRODUO\ SUHVHQWDWLRQ DQG LV IXOO\ DGHTXDWH MbJFRSH DQG TXDOLW\ DV GLVVHUWDWLRQ IRU WKH GHJUHH RI 'RFWF 5RELQVRQ &KDLUPDQ H 3URIHVVRU RI )RUHVW fFHV DQG &RQVHUYDWLRQ FHUWLI\ WKDW KDYH UHDG WKLV VWXG\ DQG WKDW LQ P\ RSLQLRQ LW FRQIRUPV WR DFFHSWDEOH VWDQGDUGV RI VFKRODUO\ SUHVHQWDWLRQ DQG LV IXOO\ DGHTXDWH Q VFRSH DQG TXDOLW\ DV D GLVVHUWDWLRQ IRU WKH GHJUHH RI 'RFWRU RI 3KLORVRSK\ eA-/ -RKQ ) (LVHQEHUJ .DWKD7LQH 2UGZD\ 3URIHVVRU RI (FRV\VWHP &RQVHUYDWLRQ FHUWLI\ WKDW KDYH UHDG WKLV VWXG\ DQG WKDW LQ P\ RSLQLRQ LW FRQIRUPV WR DFFHSWDEOH VWDQGDUGV RI VFKRODUO\ SUHVHQWDWLRQ DQG V IXOO\ DGHTXDWH LQ VFRSH DQG TXDOLW\ DV D GLVVHUWDWLRQ IRU WKH GHJUHH RI 'RFWRU RI 3KLORVRSK\ 0HOYLQ ( 6XQTXLVW $VVLVWDQW 3URIHVVRU RI )RUHVW 5HVRXUFHV DQG &RQVHUYDWLRQ FHUWLI\ WKDW KDYH UHDG WKLV VWXG\ DQG WKDW LQ P\ RSLQLRQ LW FRQIRUPV WR DFFHSWDEOH VWDQGDUGV RIAVFKRODUO\ SUHVHQWDWLRQ DQG V IXOO\ DGHTXDWH LQ VFRSH DQIFATXDO ,WLI7f DV D GLVVHUWDWLRQ IRU WKH GHJUHH RI '3FLRLA RIIKLORVRSK &KDUOHV $ IORRGV 3URIHVVRU RI =RRORJ\

PAGE 243

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