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Constraints to Republican development

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Title:
Constraints to Republican development the Deep South states, 1966-1988
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Heyman, Warren Williams
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ix, 272 leaves : ; 29 cm.

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Subjects / Keywords:
African Americans ( jstor )
Congressional elections ( jstor )
Governors ( jstor )
Political candidates ( jstor )
Political elections ( jstor )
Political parties ( jstor )
Presidential elections ( jstor )
Republicanism ( jstor )
State elections ( jstor )
Voting ( jstor )
Political parties -- History -- Southern States -- 20th century ( lcsh )
Politics and government -- Southern States -- 1951- ( lcsh )
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theses ( marcgt )
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Thesis:
Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Florida, 1993.
Bibliography:
Includes bibliographical references (leaves 258-271).
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Typescript.
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Vita.
Statement of Responsibility:
by Warren Williams Heyman.

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CONSTRAINTS
THE DEEP


TO REPUBLICAN
SOUTH STATES,


WARREN


WILLIAMS


DEVELOPMENT:
1966-1988


HEYMAN


A DISSERTATION PRESENTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL
OF THE UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT
OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF
DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY












ACKNOWLEDGMENTS


Few


people


can


successfully


complete


a di


ssertation


without


large


amount


of encouragement


and


assistance.


have


had


a sufficient


amount


of both.


Professor


Richard


. Scher


chairman


dissertation


committee


, provided


much


encouragement


ass


stance


during


the


entire


working


period


on hi


own


was


book


working


on thi


Politics


project.


New


South


Even


, Dr


while


. Scher


found


time


to provide


supervi


sion


guidance


struggled


with


learning


to organize


sufficiently


to complete


the


pers


task


onal


at hand


friend


, and


did


much


included


more.


He became


in projects


was


working


on so that


might


earn


money


necessary


to stay


the


program


complete


requirements.


am having


difficulty


expre


ssing


depth


of gratitude


have


SScher


, but


am sure


those


who


know


us both


know


what


feel


am very


grateful


help


given


other


spec
ciT~ar


people.


Their


help


was


both


encouraging


and


more


practical


I will


never


forget


first


recommendation


a graduate


assistantship


written


. Alfonso


. Damico.


never


saw


the


recommendation,


just


willingness


take








chance


on me was


such


a great


uplifting.


He has


never


stopped


encouraging


me since


that


very


time


, and


sincerely


appreciate


his


help


and


friendship.


Without


that


first


recommendation,


I would


be writing


dissertation.


Similar


recommendations


have


come


over


the


years


from


Professo

Professo

treated


found


Albert

Walter


me more


ways


. Matheny,

. Rosenbaum


as a colleague


to do everything


Professor

. These

e than a


their


James


gentlemen


student.


power


. Button,


have

Each


see


always


them


that


completed


the


dissertation.


Professor


Kenneth


. Wald


. Button


provided


financial


ass


instance


training


allowing


me to


participate


in some


their


research


projects.


Both


these


through


gentlemen,


their


along


official


with


Professor


positions


in the


Wayne


Franci


department,


found


teaching


funds


me over


a period


of several


years.


thankful


them


their


trust


in my


ability


to handle


the


task


teaching


introductory


classes


as well


as an upper


divi


sion


course.


thank


Kevin


Hill


assistance


with


the


statistical


computations


Professor


Michael


. Martinez


his


am very


patience


fortunate


help


to have


with


stati


Professor


stical


William


analyst


Kel


serve


on my committee,


particularly


since


am sure


he has









forgotten


ordeal


lengthy


master'


thesis


Professor


Kelso


has


always


been


encouraging


a strong


supporter


am very


grateful


to Prof


essor


Augustus


. Burns


reading


research


and


serving


committee


even


though


he has


own


students


and


workload


History


Department.


am sure


have


forgotten


someone


who


was


very


helpful


along


the


way


many


people


gave


so much


over


the


ears.


To all


above


as well


as those


may


have


temporarily


forgotten


wish


express


my deepest


thanks.










TABLE


OF CONTENTS


Page


ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...................................... .


ABSTRACT. ........ . .


CHAPTER


INTRODUCTION................ ................


Notes.......


SOUTHERN REPUBLICANISM AND
COMPETITION: AN HISTORICAL
PERSPECTIVE................


A One-Party South....
Decline of the Solid
Early Development of
Republicanism......
Notes. ...............


.................... 14


INTERPARTY


.....a ...... ... a.. O.a
South...............
Southern
. ..a a.... ...ooo.... ..
~ ~ ~ )I( a a at t* C ** C*


SOUTHERN ACCEPTANCE OF REPUBLICANISM
PRESIDENTIAL REPUBLICANISM..........


S.. .... 42


The Deep
The Rim S
Notes....


South
outh


States.
States..


......QQ............
....................
........ ". '......'...
* C* CC S C a C* C *S
* C tt tt C* a** a a


THE INSTITUTIONALIZATION OF PARTY
COMPETITION: NONPRESIDENTIAL


POLITICS........


U.S.
House


Senate Elections...
of Representatives


Election!


Gubernatorial
Legislative
Down-Ticket
Summary.....
Notes.......


1 Election
Elections
Elections


ns.


.........a......... .
00a00...0.......0...


A CONSTRAINED REPUBLICAN
STRUCTURAL BARRIERS......


DEVELOPMENT


Incumbency... .........................
Traditional Democratic Party Strength.


* tat
* a a t
0....
..I.


................. 83










Page


The Black Vote.....................
Candidate Quality..................
Summary......... ...... ......... ......
Notes..............................


.......
.......
. a.....
0.... .a


CONSTRAINTS ON REPUBLICAN GROWTH:


AN EMPIRICAL TEST...........................


Theoretical Perspectives..................
Incumbency...............................
Traditional Democratic Party Strength.....
The Black Vote...........................
Candidate Quality.........................
Model. ........................
Variable Operations and Data.............
Analysis..................................
Notes................................. ...


7 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS.....................

Notes... ..... ..... ...............

APPENDIX..............................................

REFERENCES. ..........................

BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH...................................


185











Abstract


Graduate
Partial


of Dissertation


School


Fulfillment


Presented


University
the Requir


the


of Florida


ements


the


Degree


CONSTRAINTS


of Doctor


of Philosophy


TO REPUBLICAN


DEVELOPMENT


THE


DEEP


SOUTH


STATES


1966


-1988


Warren


Williams


Heyman


May


1993


Chairman:


. Richard


. Scher


Major


Department


Political


Science


Traditional


Democratic


hegemony


South


broke


down


the


1950s


and


1960s


, and


the


Republican


party


has


made


significant


inroads


areas


South.


Initial


Republican


gains


in the


Deep


South


were


generated


residential


candidates


There


is evidence


some


trickle-down


effects,


Southern


Republicans


have


not


been


consis


tent


challengers


or winners


congress


ional


statewide


offices.


The


GOP


remains


a minority


party


the


Deep


South


below


the


presidential


level


a substantial


margin.


This


research


seeks


to explain


the


slowness


Southern


Grand


Old


Party


(GOP)


development


as a competitive


political


force


and


alternative


to Democratic


party


dominance


after


three


decades


of strong


support


Republican


presidential









nominees


The


research


hypothes i


zes


that


Republican


electoral


development


constrained


the


power


and


entrenchment


of Democratic


officeholders,


a strong


tradition


of Democratic


party


support


voting


behavior


of black


voters,


and


the


quality


of Republican


challengers.


The


four


variable


and


explain


continued


a large


Democratic


proportion


dominance


Republican


in the


vote


South


Multiple


linear


regression


used


test


the


hypothe


ses


estimate


the


deterrent


effect


the


variables


collectively


individually


The


unit


analysis


is congressional


elections


district


level


The


dependent


received


variable


GOP


congress


proportion


ional


candidates


the


The


vote

sample


drawn


from


congressional


elections


in four


Deep


South


states


1966


-1988


period.


endpoint


the


sample


period


is limited

proportion


availability


voting-age


blacks


of estimates


the


the


congressional


district


level.


The


provide


regress


the


strongest


analysis


indicates


constraint


Democratic


to Republican


incumbents


electoral


growth.


negative


Traditional


influence


Democratic


on GOP


party


development


allegiance


remains


is a


robust


model


including


without


black


vote


variable.


The


black


vote


a small


negative


effect


the


quality









Republican


candidates


has


a small


positive


effect


on the


dependent


variable.


Neither


the


black


vote


nor


the


experience


Republican


candidates


statistically


significant.













CHAPTER


INTRODUCTION


There


has


been


no shortage


of research


about


Southern


politics


over


the


past


forty


years


, particularly


since


1960s


when


great


social


political


upheaval


and


turmoil


took


place.


Prior


mid-twentieth


century


the


distinctiveness


South


fascinated


researchers.


Since


the


1960s


the


study


of Southern


politics


has


been


concerned


with


change.


The


high


level


interest


scholars


journalists,

observers is


political


;not


activists,


difficult


pundits,


to understand


and


other


even


justified,


given


level


of changes


taking


place


in the


South.


Southerners


abandoned


the


political


hegemony


the


Democratic


party;


blacks


demanded


and


received


civil


rights


and


were


enfranchised;


blacks


became


a significant


political


force


because


their


mobili


zation


and


solidarity


with


Democratic


party;


large


population


growth


took


place


primarily


largest


urban


areas;


whites


, mostly


middle


ass


and


living


urban


areas


, began


supporting


Republican


candidates


some


electoral


levels.


These


changes


provide


the


impetus


research.


The


breakdown


Democratic


party


monopoly


came


no urnr nrr


t n Rnithornrs


other


observers


the









region'


political


scene.


roots


extend


back


the


Roosevelt


and


Truman


administrations


(Key


1949)


For


some,


two-party


politics


was


welcomed


as a healthy


alternative


providing


competition


in an exi


sting


system


which


was


rigid,


authoritarian,


oligarchic,


archaic,


unresponsive,


and


undemocratic


(1949)


importance


of understanding


Southern


Republicans'


role


the


political-party


fabric


the


nation


can


be cast


in practical


political


terms.


One


only


needs


examine


presidential


elections


over


the


past


thirty-two


years


U.S.


Senate


elections


1980


observe


the


effects


of party


competition


the


South.


Southern


presidential


support


contributed


heavily


Republican


control


the


presidency


in recent


times,


the


1980


Senate


elections


resulted


Republican


control


that


chamber


the


period


1981-1986.


There


is no question


that


Southern


"Grand


Old


Party"


(GOP)


has


become


a significant


part


the


Southern


political


landscape.


The


breakdown


of Democratic


party


dominance


and


Republican


party


development


the


South


are


well


documented


(Black


Black


1987;


Cosman


1966;


Phillips


1969;


Scher


1992


Swansbrough


Brodsky


1988)


Republicans

presidential


have


made


level


their


(Black


most


and


dramatic


Black


1987;


gains

Scher


the


1992


Seagull


1975)


Without


Jimmy


Carter'


showing


1976


a~ -- .


I- __ .


1-


I


I










elections,


the


common


perception


is that


South


has


developed


a strong


challenging


competitive


Democrats


as the


Republican

dominant


party

party.


or even

Based


on some


"conventional


wisdom"


about


the


rise


two-party


politics


the


South


, it


would


appear


that


the


region


should


have


a much


stronger


Republican


party


than


does.


In-migration


, industrialization,


urbanization,


rising


level


income


and


education,


conservative


political


attitudes


suggest


that


Republicans


should


very


strong


and


a competitive


office.

behavior


Close

reveal


political


examination


otherwise.


force


at all


.d analysis

Across all


level


of South

electoral


of elective

ern voting


1 1


evel


Republican


successes


are


less


impres


sive.


The


GOP


tremendous


difficulty


making


significant


inroads


into


Southern


electorate


level


below


the


presidency,


particularly


state


local


level


(Black


Black


1987;


Canon


Sousa


1988;


Scher


1992;


Heyman


Scher


1988)


some


states


Republican


development


appears


to be stagnant


, or even


eroding


(Heyman


1985)


Viewing


Southern


Republicanism


, not


from


standpoint


of what


has


been


accomplished


but


from


another


point


view,


most


interesting


question


becomes


Why


have


Republicans


done


better?


Given


supposed


ideological


compatibility


between


the


new


national









proven


to be


more


fertile


territory


the


GOP


and


candidates


than


has


been?6


Optimistic


statements


outright


predictions


fully


competitive


two-party


political


system


the South


have


appeared


regularly


since


the


Deep


South


voted


Republican


the


1964


presidential


election


The


Rim


South


continued


to give


votes


to the


Democratic


candidate


, but


the


GOP


received


a high


proportion


the


total


votes


regionwide


Nearly


overnight,


predictions


two-party


system


were


widespread


The


Republican


presidential


candidate


received


more


votes


than


the


Democratic


candidate


in each


election


since


1968


except


1976


The


American


Independent


Party


of George


Wallace


won


the


Deep


South,


except


South


Carolina


, and


Arkansas


1968


Republican


presidential


nominees


were


leading


way


and


clearing


the


path


Republican


development


in the


South.


Dwight


Eisenhower


was


a national


military


hero


whom


many


Southerners


were


very


comfortable


supporting


candidacy provided

Republican. The "


legitimacy


Southern


Southerners


strategies" of


Barr


to vote

y Goldwater


1964


and


Richard


Nixon


in 1968


1972


established


presidential


Republicanism


the


South


The


national


Democratic


Party


provided


little


interference


and


even


encouragement


continued


nomination


liberal









1952,


and


Republican


dominance


been


established


since


1972--so


why


has


Republicanism


developed


in a comparable


manner


at other


levels


of government?


The


period


1960-1972


found


Democratic


party


in the


South


disarray


over


civil


rights


issue


and


Republicans


riding


the


crest


the


Southern


revolt


against


the


civil


rights


stance


the


national


Democratic


party


The


collapse


rationale


the


one-party


Democratic


South


brought


about


a surge


in Republican


activity


the


region.


Republican


candidates


the


U.S.


Senate


and


House


met


with


early


success


example,


1962


veteran


Alabama


U.S.


Senator


ster


Hill


barely


won


reelection


over


Republican


James


. Martin;


Florida


elected


two


Republican


U.S


SRepresentatives


twelve;


South


Carolina


gave


over


40 percent


popular


vote


to a Republican


candidate


the


U.S.


Senate


first


time


since


Reconstruction;


Texas


elected


a second


Republican


Representative,


after


electing


Republican


John


Tower


the


U.S


Senate


the


previous


nine


year;


congress


Tennessee


ional


elected


districts


Republicans


In all


three


, 11 of


Southern


. Representatives


were


Republican


88th


Congress


, the


highest


.since


1870s.


1972


Republicans


represented


32 percent


Southern


congr


ess


ional


delegation.









self-identification


did


3ump


dramatically


favor


the


GOP;


rather,


many


Southerners


identified


as Independent


(Swansbrough


and


Brodsky


1988).


Neverthel


ess


, Republican


candidates


across


were


electoral


entering


level


an increasing


receiving


number


larger


races


proportion


the


votes


(Heyman


and


Scher


1988)


But


the


early


"promise


of Southern


Republicanism


seems


not


to have


been


fully


realized.


Movement


toward


a fully


competitive


party


often


appears


to have


stopped


, or at


most


to be moving


glacial


speed.


Certainly


, presidential


Republicanism


established.


It is


levels


of offi


below


the


presidency


where


the


GOP


meets


the


greatest


resistance.


Some


evidence


indicates


the


Southern


GOP


is much


like


the


dog


that


chases


trucks.


grows


to the


point


of being


able


what


to catch


to do


the


once


trucks,


truck


often


caught.


seems


For


befuddled


example,


as to


Florida


Republicans


were


able


to elect


Claude


Kirk


governor


in 1966.


was


unable


to get


elected


to a second


term.


was


twenty


years


governor,


before


and


Florida


was


would

turned


elect

out o


another


f offi


Republican


after


single


term.


Georgia


Republican


gubernatorial


candidate


Howard


Callaway


rece


ived


a plurality


of approximately


47 percent


in the


1966


election.


Twenty-six


years


later


Georgians


are


yet


to elect


a Republican


governor


Five









office


after


one


term.


GOP


can


solve


the


problem


reelecting


their


governors


, the


party


will


in a stronger


position


contests


to make


(Black


additional


Black


gains


1987)


in state


Four


local


additional


U.S


. Senate


seats


were


won


Southern


Republicans


1980;


each


lost


in a first


attempt


at reelection.


Southern


Republicans


have


found


is not


easy


a developing


party


to win


elections


a traditionally


Democratic


region


with


many


powerful


incumbents


office.


In addition


the


enfranchisement


black


Southerners


, who


have


cast


their


political


with


the


Democrats,


helps


to keep


the


Democratic


party


hold


on most


elective


offi


ces


secure.


The


with


result


a top-down


Republicans


of competing


development


with


offices


in such


strategy


even


a political


left


fewer


environment


Southern


experienced


candidates


prepared


run


higher


office


(Aistrup


1989)


Republicans


do not


hold


a majority


any


Southern


legi


slature


, and


very


number


of state


constitutional


offi


ces


below


that


governor


held


Republicans


is well


documented


(Sturrock


1988b)


The


top-down


approach


has


created


problems


GOP


Most


resources


have


been


concentrated


the


high


electoral


level


Southern


Republicans


enough


have


to defeat


had


difficulty


incumbent


recruiting


Democrats


, except


candidates


under


strong


unusual









ticket


splitting


Democrats


are


easy


winners


at the


lower


levels


when


there


no GOP


candidate


, an inexperienced


candidate,


or even


an experienced


candidate


with


no party


support.


While


the


GOP


winning


the


highest


level,


the


top-down


strategy


and


ticket


splitting


allows


the


Democratic


base


remain


strong


while


the


Republicans


are


left


without


experienced


candidates


ready


and


qualified


to challenge


higher


office.


a critical


point


Republi


can


party


development.


GOP


cannot


expect


to become


fully


competitive


without


contesting


elections


at all


level


office


with


a candidate


who


has a reasonable


chance


winning


The


party


has


been


unable


to surmount


some


barriers


, certain


constraints


, which


are


precluding


growth


to a full


potential.


Alexander


. Lami


(1984)


, in


a state-by-state


analysis


the


. Key


tradition,


attributes


Republicans


' early


successes


negative


reaction


of Southern


whites


the


liberal


civil


rights


stance


national


Democratic


party


Later


successes


were


result


of Southern


whites


acceptance


the


"Southern


strategies" of


GOP


presidential


nominees


which


were


packaged


as a hands-off


approach


governing


the


nation


and,


specifically,


the


South


(1984)


Lami


documents


how


skillful


Southern


Democratic


leaders


forged


"night-and-day"


coalitions


between


increasingly










majority


of white


votes.


Lamis


records


the


successes


and


failures


the


combination


of a traditional


Democratic


vote


and


a mobilized


and


stable


black


Democratic


vote.


Lamis

extending


sees

to all


continuing

levels of


GOP


development


electoral


and


office.


competition


Neverthel


ess


the


extent


of Republican


growth


dependent


on the


success


of a fragile


black/white


Democratic


voting


coalition


which


serves


as a powerful


cons


train


to Republican


expansion


and


plays


an integral


role


in continued


Democratic


dominance


Southern


politics


(1984).


Earl


and


Merle


Black


(1987)


, writing


of Southern


politics


a broad


manner


, concluded


presidential


elections


South


were


Republicans'


to lose.


The


Southern


GOP


presidential


base


sufficient


win


the


South


the


GOP


much


Neverthel


greater


ess


, Black


obstacles


Black


races


below


determined


the


GOP


presidency


ces


The


effects


of national


candidates,


issues,


and


events


diminish


levels


below


the


presidency,


overwhelming


traditional


Democratic


partisan


identification


has


been


the


principal


barrier


to GOP


success


in state


level


races,


particularly


the


Deep


South.


The


Southern


GOP


lacks


a large


traditional


base,


and


Conservative


Republican


candidates


win


most


often


when


they


are


able


to combine


Republican


base


with


sufficient









Democrats


ensure


victory


When


the


traditional


Democratic


vote


remains


united


with


the


black


vote,


Republicans


find


a difficult


task


to draw


a majority


white


voters


overcome


coalition.


Black


Black


find


the


black


population


"tangential"


the


determination


of Southern


politics.


They


see


declining


role


the


black


belt


amidst


a growing


white


middle


the


class


South.


which

Black


will

voters


dictat

have


the


limited


direction

d leverage


of politics


because


their


numbers


will


influence


elections


and


policy


only


as part


of a black/white


Democratic


voting


coalition


(1987)


Tradition


and


race


are


only


obstacles


Republican


development


found


Black


and


Black,


however;


strong


Democratic


incumbents


and


perceived


leadership


and


pers


onal


qualities


the


candidates


are


detrimental


a minority


party


In the


Deep


South


even


the


most


serious


Republican


candidates


need


Democratic


party


sarray


and


short-term


advantages


secure


victories


(1987)


Black


Black'


findings


indicate


traditional


Democratic


dominance


of statewide


elections


has vanished,


but


a fully


competitive


political


across


level


of office


has


not


yet


been


reali


zed,


and


serious


obstacle


to Republican


development


remain


(1987).


Richard


K. Scher


(199


like


Black


and


Black


(1987),









Scher


devotes


much


of hi


research


to party


politics,


the


rise


of Southern


Republicanism,


and


the


entry


of blacks


into


electorate.


The


data


presented


indicate


a Democratic


party


that


weak


the


presidential


level,


but


still


control


of state-level


politi


CS.


Scher


finds


growing


Republican


pre


sence


competitiveness


in races


U.S.


Senate


, House


of Representatives,


gubernatorial


office


, but


cautions


that


continuing


GOP


development


contingent


upon


the


South'


developing


service


economy,


growth


the


suburban


middle


class,


in-migration


population


not


tied


to Southern


Democracy


, and


the


Democratic


reaction


to the


Republican


threat


(199


Prospects


local


Republican


growth


appear


limited


Democratic


-controlled


legi


slative


apportionment,


local


tradition,


the


and


Republic


political

an party,


culture


which


a lack


discourage


strong


switches


Republican


candidates


the


state


legis


lature


(Scher


1992


Scher


finds


Southern


Democrats


capable


of holding


onto


power


through


invigorated


party


organic


zations


that


draw


on deep


pools


talent


candidates


who


can


appeal


to a broad


range


electoral


Southern


coalitions


interests


across


are


racial


capable


class


of building


sectional


lines.


Scher


concludes


that


while


Democratic


party


weak


the


presidential


level,


it is strong


, competitive,


- a a


institutions,


- 1









permanent


residence


South,


" the


Democrats


are


not


about


to hand


over


the


reins


of government


(1992


Evidence


of a constrained


Southern


Republican


party


indicated.


Thi


research


is concerned


with


the


question


constraints


on Republican


attempts


to establish


party


institution


in the


South.


What


are


the


barriers


to Southern


Republican


development?


What


constraints


are


limiting


Republican


growth?


How


strong


are


these


constraints


, as a


group


and


individually?


What


must


Southern


Republicans


overcome


these


limitations


on development


Southern


political


behavior


suggests


some


theoretical


suppositions


which


are


developed


and


tested


as a part


the


dissertation


Much


past


research


has


approached


the


South


through


a detailed


state-by-state


analysis.


Emphasis


has


been


placed


on party


organize


action,


personalities


, voting


behavior


and


level


of partisanship


(Bass


and


DeVries


1976;


Havard


1972


Key


1949;


Lamis


1984;


Peirce


1974;


Swansbrough


and


Brodsky


1988)


More


recent


studi


have


"painted


with


broader


brush"


discussion


including


civil


historical


rights,


the


analysis


utilization


, indepth


several


methods


of analysis


including


aggregate


and


individual


level


data


(Black


and


Black


1987;


Scher


1992)


research


utili


zes


storical


analysis


of Southern


t14Aaa*nr. 4 44


Ttkh i r


4-,,,c t1a a4-1-


a *


^_L ^_ *


Co c~~trlr 1 An









research


approaches


the


South


as a monolithic


region,


but


as two


subregions


distinct


many


ways


, but


also having


overlapping


characteristics


as a part


the


whole.


Comparisons


between


Deep


South


states


the


Rim


South


States


are


informative


made


wherever


possible.


Constraints


on Republican


growth


are


found


to be


strongest


in the


Deep


South.


Because


limited


time


resources


, and


availability


of data,


statistical


analysis


performed


on data


from


the


Deep


South


states


only


Using


aggregate


data


measured


at the


congressional


strict


level


precludes


judgments


of change


at the


individual


level


Neverthel


ess


, district


-level


data


state


allow


analysis


of changes


over


time


among


states


and


between


the


subregions


South.


Specific


discussion


of methodology


included


in chapter


Chapter


provides


a chronicle


the


development


one-party


system


, the


decline


of Democratic


party


political


hegemony


in the


"Solid


South


" and


the


early


development


the


Southern


Republican


parties.


Chapter


examines


rise


of presidential


Republicanism


acceptance.


Chapter


reviews


Southern


voting


behavior


levels


below


the


press


idency,


with


particular


attention


given


to elements


of constraint


of party


campaigns


, vote-gaining


ability,


winning


of elections.


relative


positions


the


two









developing


the


hypotheses.


Chapters


and


are


devoted


to developing


and


testing


hypotheses


of constraints


Southern


Republican


development.


Notes


few


(1952),
(1972),
(1975),


Black


the


Cosman
Tindell


Bass


(1987)


and


major


(1966),
(1972)


, and


DeVri


Scher


studi


Matthews
Peirce


(1976),
(1992).


are


and
(1974


Lami


Key


(1949)


Prothro (1
), Bartley


(1984),


Heard


966),
and


Black


Havard
Graham


and


2Several


taking


place


difficulty


civil


rights


Matthews


and


authors
in the


estimating


movement
Prothro


were
outh,
the
and
(1966


leaders


but


describing


early


extent


rise
) and


writings


complete


of Southern


Allen


pat


the
had
"h of


changes
i some
Sthe


Republicans


. Sindler,


See


ed.,


Chance


in the


Contemporary


South


(Durham,


Duke


University


Press,


1963).


3Key
one-party


(1949)
system


provides
through


most
1940s


complete


analysis


the


4For


different


views


development


the


Republican


Black


party


(1987),


in the
Scher


South,
(1992)


see


Lamis


(1984)


Black


a detailed


insight


into


Republican


strength


lower


level


of electoral


office,


see


Sturrock


(1988b)


role


6Lamis
played


(1984)


places


a strong


a black/white


empha


Democratic


on the


voting


deterrent


coalition


Southern


elections.


7The
Louisiana
states ar


Texas


Deep


I


an<


South


, Mississippi
e Arkansas, F
d Virginia.


as a convenient


term


defined


lorida


as Alabama,


South
. Nort


Republicans


to define


Carolina.
h Carolina
m is used
presence


Georgia,


The


Rim


South


, Tennessee,


in thi


and


research


measurement


the


level


of Republican


candidates,


votes,


and


officeholders.


8Cosman


between


the


presidential


(1966) is
Deep South
election.


a fine


the


study
SRim


the


South


difference


the


1964


3









9Strom Thurmond's campaign for Nixon
Carolina win for Wallace. Nixon won five
Humphrey carried Texas.


denied a South
Rim South states.


1See Scher
description of
1964.


(1992 chapters 3 and
"Southern strategies"


4) for
used


Sa historical
prior to and


after


"See Bass and DeVries (1976)
of Southern politics between 1945
Lamis (1984) is an exceptionally
study for the 1960s and 1970s.


for a state-by-state study
and 1974. The work by
revealing state-by-state


'See the 1986 U.S
Florida, Georgia, and
Republican incumbents


. Senate elections
North Carolina as
facing a unified


results i
examples
Democratic


.n Ala)
of
vote.


bama,












CHAPTER


SOUTHERN


COMPETITION:


REPUBLICANISM


AND


AN HISTORICAL


INTERPARTY
PERSPECTIVE


A One-Party


South


The


dominant


feature


of Southern


politics


was


the


one-party


political


system.


Single-party


politics


was


the


foundation


strength


"Solid


South


Thi


section


examines


the


origins


the


one-party


system


and


the


Democratic


party'


struggle


to maintain


the


near-partisan


monopoly


political


leadership


role


enj oyed


between


1896


and


1948


(Key


1949).


Democratic


party'


position


was


so pervasive


overwhelming


that


the former


Confederate


states,


except


Tennessee,


cast


their


votes


the


Democratic


column


in every


presidential


election


between


1900


and


1948


except


1928


1 In


1928


presidential


election,


five


Rim


South


states


supported


Hoover,


while


five


Deep


South


states


Arkansas


solidly


supported


the


Democrati


candidate


Not


until


the


1948


election


and


the


"Dixiecrat"


movement


did


Solid


South


begin


to break


down.


The


historic


alliance


between


the


South


and


the


Democrati


party


had


origin


in the


Civil


War,


was


shaped


during


Reconstruction,


developed


fully


in the


decades









following


Reconstruction.


was


more


than


simply


a race


issue


or a movement


remove


black


vote.


was


equally


a struggle


to determine


which


whites


would


rule.


Bourbon


Democrats


were


quite


willing


to disenfranchise


poor


whites


who


could


be recruited


radical


Democrat


independent


agrarian


movements


opposed


power


and


policies


events


provided


the

the


black

South


-belt


conservatives.


opportunities


to free


Two

itself


the


Northern


army,


carpetbaggers


radical


governments


/political


movements.


The


disputed


presidential


election


1876


allowed


the


South


a chance


to choose


own


course


lasting


foundations


matters


race


, politics


, economics


the


modern


South.


Samuel


Tilden


or Rutherford


. Hayes


as President,


could


remove


Northern


army


and


carpetbaggers


The


South,


reali


zing


the


powerful


political


position


in which


found


itself


wanted


more.


The


South


wanted


to share


the


subsidies


, grants


, bonds


, and


appropriations


national


Republican


government


had


been


bestowing


on northern


enterprise


while


the


South'


economic


needs


went


unaddressed


(Woodward


1951,


chapter


Hayes


and


the


Republicans


were


more


understanding


more


willing


promise


the


South


greater


federal


aid.


The


South


gave


electoral


support


to Hayes.


The


alliance


between


11









the


House


to the


Republicans,


soon


the


Republican


leadership


came


to believe


the


costs


were


too


high.


The


failure


the


Compromise


Southern


cooperation


with


the


national


Republicans


came


about


with


the


wave


agrarian


radicalism


1878.


Southern


agrarian


radicals


, suffering


from


depressed


economic


conditions


and


failure


of adequate


national


subsidies


to materialize,


combined


their


interests


and


political


clout


with


western


farmers


a temporary


alliance


that


swept


the


South


the


control


of conservatives


the


South'


alliance


with


the


West


developed


, the


South


began


voting


agrarian


interests


Southern


ideas


regarding


money,


debts


banks


, state


bonds


and


monopolies


(Woodward


1951


, chapter


In the


1878


off-year


elections


, Hayes


failed


to win


any


the


Southern


states


he courted.


The


Republicans


began


withdraw


from


the


spirit


of conciliation.


Conservative


Southern


Democrats


who


opposed


movement


the


West


and


radicalism,


sought


gain


back


their


position


and


influence


leading


the


South


away


from


the


western


alliance


and


reestablishing


the


South'


cooperation


with


the


East.


Neverthel


ess


conservatives


turn


national


Republicans,


rather


joined


with


eastern


Democrats.


The


plan


was


to keep


the


South


completely


under


white


control









use


government


powers


to help


Negro


as the


Republicans


had


shown


they


would


(Strong


1963)


The


Bourbons


prevailed


struggle


to align


the


South


with


perceived


interests


conservative


Democrats


found


their


interests


were


best


served


an alliance


with


Democrats


the


East.


The


South


remained


aligned


with


eastern


Democrats


until


the


advent


Populist


movement.


During


1880s


Southern


conservatives


remained


devoted


the


northeastern


affiliation


, but


Southern


radical


movement


also


grew


Southern


alliance


members


won


many


high


elective


positions


as Southern


Democrats.


time

the


winning

Democrat


Southern

c party.


alliance


the


members


early


operated


1890s


from


alliance


within

members


were


discontented


sillusioned


their


failure


to get


Southern


Democrats


national


Democratic


party


respond


to their


demands


state


and


national


levels


even


though


radical


support


elected


Southern


governors


congressmen


, and


state


legis


lators.


"Party


unity"


was


working


alliance


radical


Southerners


(Woodward


1951


, chapter


Radicals


third-party


ran


movement


candidates


formed


1892


western


election


alliance


in a


members


The


Populist


candidates


achieved


a large


degree


success


were


perceived


a threat


Southern


conservative









beneficial


to corporate


interests,


rather


the


expense


the


big


money,


landholder,


transportation


interests.


The


Populist


movement


was


often


colorful


and


popular


among


the


"common


man,


" but


lacked


a strong


political


power


base


the


state


county


level


(Scher


1992


Bourbon


Democrats


blocks.


radical


were


They


The


powerful


were


very


allied


about


existence


with


to relinquish


of a third


traditional


power


party


power


the


was


challenge


to one-party


dominance


and


white


solidarity


Using


issues


such


as the


"force


bill"


conservatives


were


able


to draw


the


color


line,


divide


Populists


, and


consolidate


the


white


vote.


The


Bourbons


did


not


allow


Southern


whites


to forget


the


Republican


association


with


the


defeat


the


Confederacy,


the


horrors


Reconstruction,


black


No Southern


third


party


could


survive


were


believed


to support


the force


bill,


which


would


allow


greater


federal


involvement


in voter


regi


station


control


of elections.


The


white


and


black


factions


the


Populist


movement


agreed


on the


legis


lation.


the


Populists


sought


to reconcile


their


differences


, the


conservatives


exploited


the


relationship


and


fraudulently


controlled


the


black


vote


(Woodward


1951)


Once


the


issue


of white


supremacy


was


raised,


victory


the


conservative


Democrats


was


assured,


thus


removing


the










The


the


end


South.


of Populism


With


was


most


also


serious


end


threat


to Republicanism


removed,


conservative


Democrats


became


only


instrument


political


activity


in the


South.


Conservative


Democrats


maintained


their


position


through


party


control


a small


number


of interests


, fanning


fires


race


issue


and


limiting


the


extent


of participation


the


political


process.


After


turn


century


the


seniority


stem


proved


to be a valuable


tool


maintaining


Democratic


dominance


South


3 The


Southern


Democratic


party


was


built


loyalties


developing


which


vested


over


interests


decades


and


generated


psychological


impressive


mechanisms


self


-perpetuation


resistance


to change


The


conservatives'


strategy


served


Democrats


well


and


secured


a one-party


system


fifty


years


Table


illustrates


the


declining


Republican


vote


between


1872


1932


Entering


the


1900s


Southern


Republican


parties


and


the


Populists


, with


some


exceptions


, had


ceased


to be


effective


competitors


political


office.


Republican


support


South


was


generally


limited


to blacks


traditional


Tennessee,


course,


mountain


western


these


parties


supporters


Virginia,


remained


in North


the


active


Carolina,


Ozarks

and R


eastern


Arkansas.


republicans


occasionally


won


election


in parts


the


South


Tennessee








Table


The
Pres


Decline
idential


of Republican
Elections


Competitiveness


1872 1880 1900 1916 1932
Year (%) (%) (%) (%) (%)


Deep South

Alabama 53 37 35 22 14
Georgia 45 35 28 7 8
Louisiana 56 37 21 7 7
Mississippi 64 30 10 5 4
South Carolina 76 34 7 2 2

Rim South

Arkansas 52 39 35 29 13
Florida 54 46 19 18 25
North Carolina 57 48 46 42 29
Tennessee 48 44 45 43 33
Texas 41 22 44 17 11
Virginia 51 40 31 32 30


Source


Compiled


(Washington,


Note:


Numbers


the


: Congress
represent


author
sional


from


Guide


Quarterly,


percentage


to U.S


Inc.


of presidential


. Elections


, 1975)


vote.








and


1904.


North


Carolina


continued


give


Republican


candidates

congression


40 percent or more

al elections (Guide


vote


to U.S


in some


. Elections


1975)


Candidates


still


appeared


under


the


Populist


label,


renegade


Democrats


ran


independent


races


, and,


the


Border


South,


Republicans


ran


and


could


win


high


office.


Neverthele


the


established


victories

d state D


parties


democratic


candidates


parties


were


out


rare.


side


The


Democratic


party


was


so dominant


that


election


to office


most


often


took


place


the


Democratic


primary


as there


was


no opposition


chapter


general


Republican


election


party'


(Scher


decline


1992


continued


through


the


first


three


decades


twentieth


century,


reaching


nadir


1930s


when


only


North


Carolina,


Tennessee


, and


Virginia


forth


candidates


statewide


office


with


any


regularity


Tennessee


elected


two


congressmen


in 1922


1930.


North


Carolina


gave


several


Republican


congressional


candidates


40 percent


the


vote.


that


time


Republicans,


even


in the


mountain


states


, often


gained


ess


than


25 percent


vote


statewide


office.


The


switch


of blacks


from


supporting


Republicans


supporting


Democrats


strengthened


Democrats


even


more.


Prior


to 1936


an estimated


three-quarters


of Northern


blacks


were


Republicans.


In 1936


blacks


switched


parties


such


large


numbers


that


nearly


three-quarters


of blacks


became








which


developed


between


1870


and


1900


remained


intact


nearly


the


first


half


century.


Southern


voters'


loyalty


a reflection


the


intense


regional


commitment


the


Southern


states


have


given


the


Democratic


party.


Table


indicates


the


level


of Republican


activity


and


decline


in party


competition


congre


ssional


races


between


1920


1928.


difference


in level


competition


between


the


Deep


South


and


the


Rim


South


apparent.


1928


the


Republican


party


was


competitive


only


North


Carolina,


Tennessee,


and


Virginia.


The


data


table


are


an aggregate


congressional


elections


1920,


1922,


1928


, but


a breakdown


of each


election


year


indicates


the


magnitude


decline


two-party


competitiveness


during


the


period.


In 1922


Republicans


competed


25 percent


fewer


congressional


races


than


1920.


In 1928


GOP


candidates


entered


59 percent


fewer


races


than


1920


45 percent


fewer


than


1922.


Democratic


party


dominance


was


secure


1930s.


Decline


Solid


South


The


party


intense


after


commitment


Reconstruction


South


well


gave


into


the


1900s


Democratic


was


altered


during


the


first


half


twentieth


century.


The


election


of 1948


often


cited


as the


point


at which


the


Solid


South


cracked.


The


decline


of political


devotion


was


* .


q


_I








Table


House


1920


Seats


1922


Contested


and


Republicans,


1928


Percent


Number
Contested


Percentage
Contested


Receiving
40%+


Deep


South


Alabama
Georgia
Louisiana


Mississippi
South Carolina

Rim South


Arkansas
Florida


North


Carolina


Tennessee
Texas
Virginia


Source


Computed


author


from


Guide


to U.S


. Elections


(Washington,


Congressional


Quarterly,


., 1975)








piecemeal


disengagement


(Key


1949,


chapter


15) .


With


the


national


prominence


achieved


Democrats


the


1930s


came


new


national


policy


which


conflicted


with


the


goals


and


influence


of Southern


officeholders.


Sectional


revolt


within


the


party


took


place


the


national,


state,


and


local


levels.


Southern


conservatives


found


themselves


opposed


to New


Deal


economic


policy


that


expanded


national


government


authority,


and


Southerners


were


uneasy


as a part


of a coalition


minorities


that


, and


included


big-city


labor


unions,


political


ethnic


machines.


The


recruitment


of blacks


as a partner


in the


New


Deal


coalition


brought


the


greatest


anxiety


to Southerners.


the


national


Democratic


party


committed


itself


the


cause


of blacks,


strong


cries


Southerners


separation


black

vote


from


spokesmen


inflamed


the

and


the


national


racist


Democrats


increasing

rhetoric.


were


heard.


influence


The


Militant

black


establishment


the


Fair


Employment


Practices


Committee


in 1941


drew


even


more


black


support


Democrats.


Blacks


now


were


a vital


part


the


urban


vote


in Northern


states.


Although


Tennessee


voted


Republican


the


1920


presidential


election,


South'


first


serious


break


with


the


Democratic


party


came


in the


1928


presidential


election.


difficult


to explain


South'


desertion


1928


the


same


terms


later


break


with


nartv.


The


South


r. .


L IK:









under


certain


severe


circumstances,


the


issues


1928--religion


the


liquor


question--were


transient


and


not


as deeply


ingrained


as those


that


separated


the South


and


the


national


Democratic


party


in 1948.


Given


the


strain


placed


on Southern


voters


Alfred


. Smith'


nomination,


important


to note


that


the


five


Southern


states


supporting


Hoover


were


Rim


South


states


The


Deep


South


states


remained


faithful


the


Democratic


party.


war


Roosevelt'


worked


national


to diminish


popularity


Southern


the


Democrats


Depression,


' willingness


to rebel


against


national


party


Neverthel


ess,


a series


of events


took


place


between


1936


1948


that


would


drive


a wedge


between


Democrats


into


motion


expressions


sec


tional


hostility


in pre


sidential


elections.


The


removal


the


two-thirds


nomination


rule,


the


national


convention'


endorsement


of Henry


Wallace


Vice-President,


Truman'


vigorous


support


civil


rights


and


Fair


Deal


economics


struck


at the


heart


of Southerners'


greatest


fear


S----


black


influence


additional


government


involvement


ves


of citizens.


Southern


Democrats


believed


they


could


bring


the


national


Democratic


party


to modify


indifference


Southern


interests


withholding


the South'


electoral


vote


Truman,


a tactic


they


knew


would


have


worked


against


Dnn aot'o 1


a Cae t


ml.. a


IN I l


nnrnn se


wi thdrawal


h a \7o

Y


1'~ r1 J ii iv









bring


the


party


together


on Southern


terms


(Sindler


1976)


Southern


dissents


badly


miscalculated


the


political


realities


the


time.


The


Dixiecrats


carried


only


four


Southern


states


the


1948


press


idential


election,


Deep


South


states.


Georgia


remained


loyal


Democrats


urging


Senator


Richard


Russell


The


1928


1948


pres


idential


defections


were


based


on different


concerns.


Whil


the


South


was


no longer


solidly


Democratic,


after


1948,


Southerners


gave


a large


proportion


their


votes


independent


movement


a popular


Southern


Democrat,


not


the


Republican


candidate


Not


until


1952


would


Southerners


give


large


stable


vote


to a presidential


candidate


who


was


not


Democratic


party


nominee.


General


Dwight


. Ei


senhower,


a national


hero,


carried


the


Rim


South


states


of Florida,


Tennessee,


Texas,


and


Virginia


1952


1956


Louisiana


was


added


1956


both


elections


Eisenhower


received


a higher


proportion


the


South'


vote


than


GOP


candidate


since


1900


The


Eisenhower


candidacy


gave


Southern


Republican


party


the


first


substantial


and


stable


vote


given


Southerners


presidential


candidate


outside


Democratic


party


(Seagull


1975;


Strong


1960)


The


black


vote,


some


of which


returned


the


Republicans


1956,


proved


to be


ess


stabi


than


Tm ^ T -^t


4-ha~~~~r 4n 4.an ta~teen C* n


In


C+- rh-nSnn


T.T^ C a


4-V^


3a rl -


~lhC nYL"I


n









level


1952.


Given


votes


denied


the


Democratic


party


1948,


1952


election


was


a critical


point


the


early


development


the


Southern


GOP


Nevertheless


there


was


rush


to displace


Democrats


at level


below


the


Presidency


Entering


the


1960s


Democrats


held


Southern


U.S


. Senate


seats


, 93 percent


the


House


seats,


96 percent


the


state


legislative


seats


, and


statewide


offi


ces


below


that


of Governor


Democrats


held


Governor'


office


each


Southern


state


between


1925


and


1961


(Lamis


1984)


The


Solid


South


cracked


presidential


level


1948,


but


Democratic


dominance


was


declining


very


slowly


Democratic


fortunes


were


on the


decline


the


presidential


level


decade


beginning


in 1952


, but


movement


away


from


electing


Democrats


would


come


about


until


the


early


1960s.


Table


indicates


decline


of party


competition


in congre


ssional


races


between


1948


and


1960


Only


the


Rim


South


states


of Florida


, North


Carolina,


Tennessee,


and


Virginia


did


Republicans


contest


one-half


or more


the


elections


during


period.


This


study


emphasis


zes


voting


behavior


, but


additional


indication


of Democratic


decline


can


seen


public


opinion


survey


Table


reflects


the


party


identification


of white


Southerners


between


1952


and


1960


Table


reveal


the


decline


Southern


Democratic









Table


House


Seats


Contested


Republicans,


1948-1960


Number
Contested


Percentage
Contested


Percentage
Receiving
40%+


Deep


South


Alabama
Georgia


Loui


siana


ssissippi


South


Carolina


28.2


50.0


28.1
16.0
41.7


Rim


South


Arkansas
Florida


North


28.0
63.3
81.3


Carolina


14.3
36.8


Tennessee
Texas
Virginia


47.4


Source:


Computed


author


from


Guide


to U.S.


Elections


(Washington,


Congressional


Quarterly,


Inc


, 1975)












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identification


fell


21 percent.


Republicans


did


not


gain


a one-for-one


basi


from


Democrats'


loss


, but


rather


gained


about


one-half


the


amount


of decline


Democratic


identification.


Early


Development


of Southern


Republicanism


Republicans


did


become


a part


the


political


landscape


the


1950s.


Republicans


have


been


a part


Southern


politics


since


the


founding


the


party


in 1854


The


perception


that


South


always


voted


the


Democratic


party


is not


accurate.


There


have


always


been


cracks


the


Democratic


Solid


South.


The


mountain


residents


of southwest


Virginia,


western


North


Carolina,


eastern


Tennessee,


the


Ozarks


have


been


at odds


with


the


lowland


planters


since


the


Civil


War


and


have


tended


to vote


Republican


ever


since.


Nevertheless,


after


Reconstruction


Southern


Republicans


played


a minor


role


in most


parts


the


region


as the


Solid


South


developed.


the


of World


War


II, Republicans


could


expect


win


no electoral


votes,


no governor'


office


'and


U.S.


Senate


seats


in the


South.


Tennessee


did


elect


two


Republicans


the


House


of Repre


sentatives


between


1946


1950


both


from


traditional


mountain


Republican


stricts


The


Republican


presidential


candidate


1944


Thomas


. Dewey,


claimed


only


one-quarter


the


South'


popular










the


mountain


counties


Rim


South


states


Arkansas,


North


Carolina,


Tennessee


, Virginia,


and


the


high-migration


counties


of South


Florida


(Bartley


and


Graham


1975)


. Key


wrote


Republican


party,


scarcely


deserves


Key,


the


"Only


name


North


of party"


Carolina,


(1949,


277)


Virginia,


According


Tennessee


do the


Republicans


277) .


approximate


Prior


the


1950s


reality


Southern


of a political


Republicans


party"


generally


could


be class


ified


as one


three


different


types


"Post


Office"


or patronage


Republicans,


mountain


Republicans,


or black


Republicans.


Most


Southern


Republican


parties


were


patronage


type,


those


not


interested


enlarging


the


party


or contesting


elections


who


were


more


interested


patronage


that


would


come


with


national


Republican


victory.


Mountain


Republicans'


origin


can


traced


directly


the


Civil


War


Mountain


people


were


the


slaveholding


black


-belt


independent


dwelling


small


-farm


elite.


owners


They


who


were


resented


the


proud


and


lowlanders


"high-hat"


attitude


usurpation


best


lands


and


the


power


govern.


The


highlander


with


ess


fertile


lands


hilly


terrain


had


little


use


slave


labor


and


sliked


the


lowlanders'


pretensions


an aristocratic


ancestry









secession


movement.


The


cleavage


of geographically


determined


outlook


provides


the


basi


much


the


differences

Democrats'


between


views


upland


on loyalty


residents'


the


Union


the

and


conservative


attachment


the


Republican


party.


Mountain


Republican


support


was


limited


to small


areas


the


South,


outs


local


elections


had


limited


influence


in the


Republican


party


These


traditional


Republicans


North


provided


Carolina,


a small


Tennessee,


stable


Virginia


vote


, but


the


existed


GOP


only


a few


scattered


counties


other


Southern


states


Black


Republicans


were


a remnant


the


blacks


who


supported


GOP


during


Reconstruction.


In 1910,


80 percent


nation'


black


population


lived


the


eleven


states


Old


Confederacy


1960


almost


one-half


1963)


of American


More


blacks


importantly


lived


from


outside


New


the


Deal


South


to 1956


(Steamer


about


80 percent


black


vote


went


to Democrat


candidates


in presidential


elections


Even


Eisenhower'


reelection


1956


drew


only


36 percent


black


vote.


When


the


black


vote


began


to take


on meaningful


proportions


, their


votes


went


the


Democratic


candidates


president


(Steamer


1963)


Blacks


have


overwhelmingly


supported


Democrats


since


1936


and


have


been


a diminishing


proportion


the










the


numbers,


1940s

and t


and


he


1950s


mountain


black


Republicans


Republicans


were


were reduced

highly limited


in numbers


geographical


location.


The


Southern


Republican


party


was


the


hands


patronage


Republicans.


Alexander


The


Heard


lack


(1952),


of leadership


who


was


observed


apparent


a greater


lesser


degree


in every


Southern


state


there


must


be changes


the


high


command


party


is to grow"


248)


Earlier


, Key


(1949)


found


Southern


Republicans


not


desirous


of office.


He wrote


that


they


are


sound,


honest,


reputable


people


, who


are


mostly


successful


businessmen,


but


they


are


politicians


who


build


political


parties


(chapter


Southern


Republican


leadership


developed


in the


early


1950s


Riding


General


Eisenhower'


popularity


the


presidential


elections


1952


1956,


Republicans


combined


their


efforts


in a serious


attempt


to capitalize


the


South'


dissati


sfaction


with


national


Democratic


party


and


expand


the


Republican


following


Business


prof


ess


ional


people


who


migrated


the


South


as part


the


industrial


zation


economic


expan


sion


after

urban


who

and


World

and s


had


War


uburb


developed


government


II provided lea

an middle-class


negative


taxing


dership.

migrants


attitudes

spending.


Th

fr


toward

Young


*


ey were 30o

om small t

social pr

executives


ined


owns

ograms

and










a pivotal


role.


Other


groups,


including


reformers


interested


building


a two-party


system


and


ideologies


which


were


conservative


on racial


and


economic


issues


joined


the


movement


(Bass


and


DeVries


1976;


Peirce


1972


Seagull


1975).


Prior


the


1950s


Southerners


often


expressed


their


disenchantment


with


Democratic


party


supporting


independent


Democratic


movements


candidates


uncommitted


electors.


There


was


little


increase


partisan


identification


or electoral


support


Republicans


(Bass


and


DeVries


1976).


Eisenhower'


candidacy


was


the


first


major


breakthrough


Republicans


interested


building


expanded


party;


even


national


hero,


who


might


have


run


president


as either


a Democrat


or Republican,


carried


four


Rim


South


states


1952


while


failing


to win


any


Deep


South


state.


Eisenhower


won


four


Rim


South


states


again


in 1956


he also


carried


Deep


South


state


Louisiana.


Development


of a competitive


Republican


party


has


roots


in the


1950s


and


in presidential


politi


CS.


(See


table


.5.)


The


power


1952

the


and

newly


1960 elections

found Southern


demonstrated

support. I


the


n 1960


taying

the


Republican


presidential


candidate


carried


three


Rim


South


states,


but


was


unable


to win


a single


Deep


South


state.









Table


Republican Presidential


Vote,


1940-1960


1940 1944 1948 1952 1956 1960
(%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%)


Deep South

Alabama 14 18 19 35 39 42
Georgia 15 18 18 30 33 37
Mississippi 4 6 3 40 25 25
South Carolina 4 5 4 49 25 49
Louisiana 14 18 19 47 53 29

Rim South

Arkansas 21 30 21 44 46 43
Florida 26 30 34 55 57 52
North Carolina 26 33 33 46 49 48
Tennessee 32 39 37 50 49 53
Texas 19 17 24 53 55 49
Virginia 32 37 41 56 55 52


Source:
(Washingt


Compiled by author from Guide to U.S


on,


Congressional


Quarterly,


. Elections


Inc. ,


1975)









Nevertheless,


other


signs


pointed


to a much


less


potent


second


Southern


party


than


that


indicated


the


presidential


vote.


The


tremendous


rise


Southern


support


GOP


presidential


candidates


was


accompanied


corresponding


success


of Republican


candidates


offi


ces


below


pre


sidential


level


Development


had


been


top


down


with


state


and


local


offices


most


elusive


, many


because


Republicans


failed


to contest


seats.


Table


indicates


Ranney


Scale


scores


the


Southern


States


, 1946-1963


scores


show


the


slowness


of change


interparty


competition


despite


support


Republican


presidential


candidates.


Ranney


characterized


states


with


scores


.900


or more


Democratic


one-party


states


those


between


.700


and


.900


modified


one-party


states,


and


those


between


.300


and


.700


as two-party


states


(Ranney


1971)


No Southern


state


attained


two-party


status.


Only


North


Carolina,


Tennessee,


and


Virginia


could


be classified


as modified


one-party


states.


All


the


Deep


South


states


one-half


the


Rim


South


states


were


Democratic


one-party


states.


While


press


idential


Republicanism


was


playing


major


role


in Southern


politics,


acceptance


institutional


zation


of Republicans


was


yet


arrive.


thi


point


time


presidential


Republicanism


had


not








Table


Levels of


Interparty Competition


in Southern


States,


1946-1963


State Ranney Score


Deep South

Alabama .957
Georgia .992
Louisiana .987
Mississippi .981
South Carolina 1.000

Rim South

Arkansas .943
Florida .922
North Carolina .879
Tennessee .872
Texas .959
Virginia .880


Source:
DeVries,


(New


York:


Adapted from Jack Bas
The Transformation of


Basic Books,


1976,


s and Walter
Southern Politics


511,


table E-1).








next


two


chapters


discuss


institutionalization


Republicanism


at all


levels


of electoral


office.


Notes


'Tennessee voted
presidential nominee


majority
1920.


Republican


2The 1928 presidential election provides an example
the voting behavior divergence between the Deep and Rim
South states. The 1948 and 1964 presidential elections
more recent examples.


of

are


3Reelection


of Southern


incumbents


placed


Southerners


in lea
1930s
senior
large
result
Southe
and 60
Incumb
positi
unchal


dership
Southern


ity
deg
ing
rne
pe
ent
ons


to a
ree o
publ
rs he
recent
Sout
were


pos0
re]


iti
pre


cquire
f infl
ic pol
Id 65
of th
herner


ons i
sent
lead
uence
icy.
perce


virtual


n the


major cha
holding i
ly assure


Hous
and
pos
opos
(19
major
irs
nflu


d


nd S
ator
ons
legi
rep
enat
the
ial


of reelect


enate


had
nd e
lati
rts
cha
house
ongr
ion


su
xer
on
tha
irm
by
ess
and


the
icient
se a
d the


anships
1960.
ional
often


ran


lenged.


4President Franklin
in Southern elections in
senators who opposed the


D. Roosevelt personally intervened
an attempt to replace conservative
policies of his administration.


5Florida,
Virginia gave


North
Hoover


Carolina, Tennessee,
a majority of votes.


Texas,


and


6Eisenhower was the
nominee to receive over
twentieth century.


first Republican presidential
40 percent of Southern votes in


the


7
Scher


See Black
(1992).


and


Black


(1987),


Sturrock


(1988b),


and


sSee


Steven


Finkel


Howard


Scarrow,


"Party


Identification
Consequence,"
p. 642 for exi
reluctance of
the large prop
independent.


and Party En
Journal of Po
t polls taken
Southerners t
portion of Sou
More recent p
n Ctkra nerniinh


ollment: The
itics, vol.
in 1982 indi
self-identi
herners iden
rtisan ident


erence and
. 2 (1985),
g the
Republican
ng as
tion surveys
\


he fnrrnr;l









9Winston County,
known because of its
protest over Alabama'
Fannin County in nort
Republican candidates


Alabama, is
attempt to
s secession
h Georgia h
since the


perhaps
withdraw
prior to
s strong
860s.


the most well
from the state
the Civil War
ly supported


"For a fine indepth
organizational developme
Southern Strategy and th
Republican Parties (Ann
1989).


study of Southern Republican party
nt, see Joseph A. Aistrup, The
e Development of the Southern
Arbor, MI: University Microfilms,


"Austin


among the
two-party
candidate
senate he
seats in
Democrats
state sen
The score
to 1.000,
competiti
indicates
between .
states wi
two-party


a
n
a
0


Ranney


e st
and
or,
vari
bsol
wou
one
0 an


h s
sta


s by
for
the
Demo
ate
(4)
and
ed f
ute
Id b
-par


d


9


cores
tes.


(1965)


measured


averaging (1)
governor cast


averac
crats


Hou
the
sta
rom
Dem
e .
ty
oo0


se
P'
te
.1
oc:
50'
Dei
ar<


percent


, (3) the
of Repre
percentage
represent
000, perf


r
0
eI
e


between


interparty


the
for
tage
ave
sent
of
tati
ect


atic dominant
. A Ranney
ocratic stat
classified


.300


mean
the D
of s
rage
active
terms
ve he


Rep
ion
sco
e.
mod
700


U

r

i


per
emoc
eats
perc
s he
for
Id b


bli
P
e o
Sta
fie
are


competition
centage of th
ratic
in the state
entage of
Id by
governor,
y Democrats.
n domination,
fect
.900 or more
s with scores
one-party and


classified


ie


I


I


.


ge












CHAPTER


SOUTHERN


ACCEPTANCE


OF REPUBLICANISM:


PRESIDENTIAL


REPUBLICANISM


From


1932


to 1944


the


Southern


states


voted


Democratic


majorities


each


presidential,


senatorial,


and


gubernatorial


election.


Prior


to 1936,


approximately


three-quarters


of Northern


blacks


were


Republican.


Partisan


change


came


quickly


blacks.


From


the


latter


years


the


New


Deal


to 1956


about


80 percent


the


black


vote


went


to Democratic


presidential


candidates


(Steamer


1963).


The


movement


of Southern


whites


from


Democratic


allegiance


acceptance


of Republican


candidates


came


about


much


more


slowly.


the


view


this


research


that


the


transformation


Southerners


from


Democratic


partisanship


level


acceptance


of Republicanism


presidential


level


began


the


early


1950s


was


accomplished


the


presidential


election


1972.


Acceptance


of Republicans


came


fits


and


starts


and


over


the


resistance,


and


sometimes


the


help,


the


black-belt


voters.


can


be shown


that


the


basis


was


a persistent


expanding


white-collar


sector


Republican


support.


A state-by-state


discussion


sources


of Republican


support


is a part


this


chapter,








but


an overview


the


development


of Southern


Presidential


Republicanism


order


point.


Over


the


1952


-1972


period


, Republican


development


came


about


an irregular


pattern.


Blacks


played


a role


the


1950s


with


limited


support


of Dwight


Eisenhower


a GOP


candidate


the


South


who


gave


respectability


Third-party


movements


the


in 1948


Republican


1968


party


provided


a transition


mechanism


making


it easier


Southerners


vote


a candidate


outs


Democratic


party


The


elections


the


of 1948,


political


1964,


differences


1968


also


between


provide


the


Deep


an indication


South


Rim


South


Strom


Thurmond'


States'


Rights


party


carried


four


Deep


South


states


in 1948,


George


Wallace'


American


Independent


party


won


four


Deep


South


states


single


Rim


South


state--Arkansas--in


1968


Barry


Goldwater


won


five


Deep


South


states


in 1964


None


the


three


candidates


carried


a border


South


state


except


Arkansas


1968


The


Rim


South


voted


Democratic


1948


and


1964


Republican


1968


except


Arkan


sas


Texas.


Southern


presidential


Republicanism


was


established


the


1972


election


of Richard


Nixon


who


carried


entire


region


a substantial


margin.


stable


underlying


urban


middle-class


Republican


presidential


vote


pers


isted


over


entire


period


and


been


well


documented


y Donald


Strong


(1960) an


Louis


vw w


.







the


urban,


white


middle-class


support


of Southern


Republicanism


grown


rapidly


since


the


1950s


and


1960s


and


today


forms


the


backbone


the


Southern


GOP.


They


also


present


evidence


of GOP


presidential


support


spreading


the


middle


class


of smaller


towns,


but


are


as optimistic


about


Republican


electoral


fortunes


at the


state


and


local


level


Through


the


1944


elections


Democratic


presidential


candidates


received


overwhelming


Southern


support.


Southern


alienation


from


the


national


Democratic


party


came


only


after


a prolonged


estrangement,


a conservative


congressional


alliance


with


Republicans,


many


political


crises


(Steamer


their


1963)


origins


Southerners


highest


perceived


level


these


crises


of government


and


had


within


the


Democratic


party


The


Roosevelt


admini


station


supported


economic


measures


in private


that


Southerners


affairs


made


believed


some


were


efforts


government


to achieve


intrusion


civil


rights


blacks.


Neverthel


ess


, Roosevelt


was


motivated


civil


rights


issues


The


President'


wife


was


an outspoken


advocate


of civil


rights


Roosevelt


issued


bans


on discrimination


defense-related


industries


established


a Fair


Employment


Practices


Commission.


Roosevelt'


civil


rights


policies


were


limited.


They


did


not


ban


racial


discrimination


federal


agencies


or the









The


President


personally


campaigned


against


conservative


Democratic


senators


in an attempt


purge


the


party


those


opposed


to his


policies


Roosevelt'


nationwide


Democratic


personal


party.


popularity


President


held


South


could


win


the


without


South,


and


he openly


sought


black


support.


The


ideological


line


established


New


Deal


was


continued


Harry


Truman'


Fair


Deal


extensive


civil


rights


programs


under


a Truman


administration


, further


alienating


Southerners.


1948


conditions,


personalities


, and


events


had


changed.


The


South


was


However


presented


, thi


did


with


an opportunity


necessarily


mean


an open


a move


break.


toward


Republicanism


The


GOP


taken


a civil


rights


stance


similar


that


Democrats


, and


Thomas


Dewey


held


little


attraction


to Southerners


Many


believed


a totally


Southern


view


was


required


to sati


the


Southern


mood.


When


liberal


the


civil


1948


rights


Democratic


plank


national


convention


platform,


included


delegates


from


Missi


ssippi


and


Alabama


walked


out.


These


delegates-


-party


leaders


from


Mississippi


South


Carolina


conservative


leaders--met


Birmingham


in the


summer


to form


"States'


Rights


Democrats


Governor


. Strom


Thurmond


South


Carolina


was


nominated


as an alternative


the


"regular


Democrats'"


nominee,


Harry


Truman.


-taa


* 1


A


*


* 1 J









remained


with


Truman


the


urging


of Senator


Richard


. Russell.


The


States'


Rights


party


or "Dixiecrats


they


became


known,


had


little


appeal


the


Border


South


where


no state


vote


exceeded


17 percent


Southern


Republicans


benefitted


indirectly


from


the


Dixiecrat


movement.


Southern


Democrats


were


divided;


there


was


no reason


to believe


States


' Righters


would


become


Republicans


overnight


or across


electoral


level


After


all,


Thurmond


won


only


the


states


where


the


States'


Rights


Democrats


displaced


the regular


Democrats


' position


on the


ballot.


Third-party


movements


and


independent


elector


slates


played


a significant


role


the


development


acceptance


of Republicanism


the


Deep


South


and


lesser


role


the


Rim


South


Where


third


parties


were


esent


elections


between


1948


1968,


there


was


large


increase


the Republican


proportion


vote.


Third-party


activity


contributed


to the


instability


the Southern


Republican


vote


during


party'


development


and


made


evident


the


ambivalence


with


which


Southerners


accepted


presidential


Republicanism


(Seagull


1975


The


first


pres


idential


election


the


1950s


revealed


the


willing


ess


of Southerners


to support


Republican


pres


idential


nominees.


Four


Rim


South


states


gave


ma A;C1 SF


I~ I. rLmnns r+tra n b


Dantihl I rran


Tr^+- f


4-^ 4-l^


J--I_- --


r








and


Virginia


were


joined


Republican


column


in 1956


Loui


slana.


Eisenhower


received


a remarkable


48 percent


the


region'


popular


vote


in both


elections.


The


GOP'


strongest


support


came


from


the


voters


who


supported


Thurmond


1948,


from


peripheral


Southern


states.


There


was


also


a difference


within


states


Thurmond


did


best


black-belt


county


, whereas


Eisenhower


was


strongest


mountain


county


largest


urban


areas


(Strong


1960).


In 1956


each


eleven


Southern


states


Republican


percentage


vote


in metropolitan


county


exceeded


total


percentage


of all


remaining


counties


Strong


1960)


The


Southern


urban


support


of Eisenhower


was


the


beginning

Republican


of a stable


vote


outside


substantial


the


press


traditional


idential


mountain


Republicans.


The


gains


came


disproportionally


from


higher


socioeconomic


status


voters


Seagull


1975;


Strong


1960)


More


importantly


, the


upsurge


in Southern


support


Republican


presidential


nominees


was


accompanied


corresponding


victories


of Republican


candidates


state


local


offices


Few


Southern


state


local


offi


ces


were


contested


GOP.


Republican


gains


were


clearly


presidential


phenomenon,


although


entirely


"a vote


the


man








The


Eisenhower


vote


was


random.


A vote


the


man


would


have


shown


Eisenhower


doing


equally


well


the


cities


levels


, suburbs,


Randomn


ess


farms


, and


of support


across


did


social


exist


and


income


(Strong


1960;


1963)


Although


Eisenhower


did


receive


support


the


metropolitan


areas


, black-belt


county


and


traditional


Republican


regions,


Southern


presidential


Republi


canism


was


primarily


an urban


white-collar


movement


1952


(Seagull


1975)


Loui


Harris


(1954)


found


Eisenhower


to be


more


popular


the


among


country


white-collar


Southern


urban


ass


voters


than


any


behaved


other


much


lik


group i

e their


Northern


counterparts


the


elections


1952


and


1956


Strong


1963)


This


important


because


the


newly


found


white-collar


segment


the


Southern


GOP


vote


became


the


most


stable


component


of support


Republican


party


Lingering


notions


the


Republican


vote


being


simply


vote


a man


were


dismissed


the


1960


actions


when


Richard


. Nixon


received


only


to 3


percent


ess


than


votes


received


Eisenhower


each


the


two


previous


elections.


Republi


cans


were


benefitting


from


the


urban


growth


economic


development


the


South


(Seagull


1975


Strong


1960) .


Nixon'


support


came


in a


large


degree


from


the


upper


-income-level


voters


the metropolitan


areas


vote


very


similar


to that


received


Eisenhower


(Strong


1963)


The


Nixon


vote


gave


every


indication


that


v








enduring,


built


around


a single


candidate


personality.


Southern


The


1960


Republicans


presidential


how


important


election


South'


served


votes


to show


had


become.


Eisenhower


could


win


outside


the


South


the


1960


race


was


ose


enough


to emphasize


the


importance


the


Southern


states


to both


parties


During


the


Eisenhower


years,


Supreme


Court


handed


down


the


Brown


decision


the


President


enforced


Little


Rock.


Southerners


instinctively


looked


to the


Democratic


party


relief.


Neither


John


. Kennedy


nor


Nixon


made


a racial


appeal.


Nixon


was


no Eisenhower


to Southerners,


but,


rather,


was


not


widely


known.


Kennedy


appealed


to Southerners'


strong


military


tradition


he selected


Senator


Lyndon


Johnson


of Texas


as his


running


mate


Kennedy


won


1960


, but


Nixon


received


47 percent


Southern


vote


actually


won


a majority


popular


votes


in the Rim


South.


The


growth


press


idential


Republicanism


the


1950s


and


early


1960s


brought


a surge


of citizen


part


cipation


in Republi


can


party


moderate


organizations


leadership


several


attracted


changes


the


in leadership.


party


The


with


Eisenhower


candidacy


replaced


post-office


Republicans,


with


the


election


John


. Kennedy


1960


were


themselves

supporting


pushed


the


aside


conservative


right-wing


positions


activists


of Senator


Barry


Goldwater.


The


activism


early


1960s


also


brought








In 1961


John


Tower


of Texas


was


elected


to a U.S.


Senate


seat


Republicans


contested


two


congressional


seats


special


elections


Texas.


Conner


Harrington


received


11 percent


vote


District


and


Joe


Meirsner


received


25 percent


the


13th


strict,


which


included


San


Antonio.


Republican


candidate


Charlton


Lyons


rece


ived


46 percent


vote


the


congress


ional


district


race


in Loui


siana


the


1962


congr


essi


onal


elections


the


GOP


contested


fifty-s


House


seats,


fourteen


more


than


1960


Republican


candidates


won


eleven


districts,


including


seven


incumbent


seats


one


additional


seat


in Texas


Florida,


North


Carolina


, and


Tennessee.


two


congr


ess


ional


races


Virginia


one


Tennessee


GOP


candidates


polled


49 percent


vote.


The


GOP


run


U.S


. Senate


seat


Alabama


was


nearly


successful


when


James


Martin


polled


49.1 percent


vote


against


incumbent


ster


Hill


(Strong


1963).


the


local


level


Republicans


ran


Mayor


Meridian,


ssippi,


1961


and


New


Orleans


in 1962


receiving


percent


vote,


respe


actively.


Lowndes


post


County


of public


Missi


ppi,


prosecutor


elected


, the


first


a Republican


GOP


the


officeholder


ssippi


century


, and


two


Republicans


were


elected


the


City


Council


of Atlanta,


Georgia.


Mobile


, Alabama,


elected


a Republican


Mayor


in October


1961


(Strong


1963)









and


grassroots


activity


was


on the


rise,


GOP


was


unabi


to crack


Deep


South


even


presidential


level,


except


Loui


siana


1956


. Thi


would


change


1964


In 1964


five


Deep


South


states


gave


their


votes


a Republican

Reconstructio


presidential

n. Senator


candidate

Goldwater


for

won


the

only


first

the f


time


ive


since


Deep


South


states


and


home


state


of Arizona.


The


1964


presidential


campaign


brought


with


a Republican


"Southern


strategy"


that


can


be used


to distinguish


differences


between


the


Rim


and


Deep


South


states


The


Goldwater


Southern


strategy


was


born


Atlanta


in a


1961


speech


Dismi


ssing


the


GOP'


chances


of drawing


large


share


the


black


vote


the


Republican


nominee


appealed


to Southern


whites


' opposition


to the


liberal


policies


the


Kennedy


Johnson


admini


stations.


Goldwater'


position


domestic


issues


was


similar


to John


. Calhoun'


states'


rights


position


which


argued


that


much


power


and


authority


had


been


centralized


federal


government


(Scher


1992)


A Goldwater


presidency


would


leave


the


enforcement


integration


stat


es.


Goldwater


had


voted


against


the


1964


Civil


Rights


Act.


reward


was


electoral


votes


Deep


South


states.


was


the


firs


Republican


carry


these


most


Southern


states


Goldwater'


vote


was


dependent


on traditional


Republicans


or the


new


1


-L- _


.4 f% A S%


.. ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ Y -Y 1I -a i 4.t.A .U -t -r jI


.. Y1'L


U~L~AY


~hn


C


s^ 1 U









support


from


blacks.


The


Goldwater


strategy


removed


any


opportunity


of black


support.


Since


1964


the


black


vote


has


been


given


almost


entirely


to Democratic


presidential


candidates.


Goldwater


received


62 percent


the


Deep


South


vote


and


43 percent


votes


from


Rim


South


states.


The


Deep


South


support


Goldwater


was


seen


some


as a


measure


the


depth


of support


a separatis


t racist


policy


(Hess


Broder


1967)


After


the


1964


election


the


Southern


states


had


voted


Republican


in at least


one


presidential


election


except


Arkansas


and


North


Carolina.


Neverthel


ess


, the


South


was


not


monolithic


voting


behavior


the


presidential


level


The


Rim


South


the


Deep


South


supported


different


presidential


candidates


1948,


1964,


1968


Although


Eisenhower


was


able


carry


four


Rim


South


states


and


Nixon


three,


only


one


Deep


South


state


went


either


Republican.


The


presidential


elections


1964


and


1968


are


indicators


of divergence


between


regions


the


South


Barry


Goldwater


carried


Deep


South


states


1964


, while


the


same


time


Republican


support


in the


Rim


South


declined


dramatically


from


level


achieved


1952


-1960


with


the


senhower


Nixon


candidacies.


Explanations


political


differences


between


the


regions


include


race,


urbani


zation


and


industrialization,


migration,


- S ft ft S


'I


Jl ri


II


F









South


(Black


and


Black


1987;


Cosman


1966;


Scher


1992;


Seagull


1975).


The


eleven


former


Confederate


states


form


a region


defined


many


years


when


the


bonds


common


interests


were


anchored


race


issue


Even


then,


however,


the


South


was


not


monolithic


political


behavior


or tradition.


The


flat


lands


of much


Deep


South


provided


a rural


environment


required


suitable


large


numbers


large


of slave


single-crop

laborers t


plantations


that


o plant


harvest


the


crop.


The


hill


mountain


lands


the


Rim


South


were


farmed


land


owners


growing


a diversity


crops


on smaller


plots


land


using


family


labor


Black


slave


labor


was


limited


the


black


population


was


a small


proportion


the


total


population


Rim


South


Thi


was


unlike


Deep


South,


where


the


black


population


grew


to majorities


in some


counties.


The


large


rural


basi


black

for o


population


ne-party


politics


Deep

(Key


South

1949).


was


the


Even


demographic


the


Deep


South'


and


largest


maintained


cities


the


had


tradition


substantial

nal attitude


proportions

on race re


of blacks


lations


(Black


and


Black


1987)


high


black


rural


counties


accounted


no more


than


percent


peripheral


South


votes


in 1980,


one


-sixth


votes


high


black


rural


counties


the


Deep


South


(1987).


t f


-a-


-.I L





I


t


^









1957).


The


proposition


that


urbanism


is conducive


competitive


party


systems


rests


comfortably


the


conventional


wisdom


of political


science


literature


(Key


1949;


Patterson


and


Caldeira


1984;


Strong


1960).


Key


predicted


development


of Southern


cities


would


bring


political


change


and


the


result


would


be a South


less


determined


to maintain


the


traditional


race


relations.


Key


argued


the


socioeconomic


diversity


the


cities


would


encourage


political


cleavages


that


would


make


difficult


a single


party


to dominate


politics


(1949).


The


Rim


South


consistently


been


more


urban


than


the


Deep


South


(Black


Black


1987).


In the


1950s


urban


growth


was


greatest


in Texas


, Tennessee,


Florida,


and


Virginia.


As of


1980


South


had


large


metropolitan


areas


, two-thirds


of which


were


Rim


South.


Sixty


percent


the


Rim


South


vote


comes


from


urban


areas


compared


to 44 percent


Deep


South


(1987)


The


development


of metropolitan


areas


the


Rim


South


has


encouraged


political


competition


less


influenced


large


black


population


a tradition


of Democratic


party


loyalty.


In-migration


that


accompanied


the


urbanization


South


since


World


War


II has


contributed


to Republican


development.


Most


often


migrants


were


white


and


middle


A t -a-- -a--s a----,....... -z tt Li.


1 I J -T


'I


-~LI I- A









Southern


cities


faced


less


pressure


to develop


Democratic


party


tradition


(Scher


1992).


comparison


of presidential


voting


behavior


the


subregions


shows


clearly


presence


of a traditional


Republican


support


Rim


South


states


and


just


clearly


the


mixed


receptions


Republican


nominees


received


the


two


regions.


(See


table


.1.)


The


Rim


South


states


embraced


Republican


press


idential


candidates


earlier


to a greater


degree


than


the


states


the


Deep


South.


The


Republican


vote


the


twenty


-year


period


prior


to the


Eisenhower


years


never


exceeded


41 percent


any


Rim


South


state.


From


1952


until


1960


the


mean


Rim


South


Republican


vote


was


51 percent.


the


Deep


South


the


mean


Republican


vote


from


1940


through


1948


was


12 percent


37 percent


the


years


1952-1960


The


Deep


South


was


much


slower


in accepting


Republicanism,


and


only


one


Deep


South


state


gave


a majority


votes


the


GOP


nominee


parties


had


between


taken


1940


liberal


1960


civil


to that


rights


time


stance.


both


See


table


During


the


1952-1972


period


Republicans


received


majority


total


vote


cast


in presidential


elections


the


South


(Bass


and


DeVries


1976).


Even


though


Southerners


had


broken


the


habit


of supporting


Democratic


presidential










































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did


Republicans


make


significant


inroads


the


state


and


local


level


South


(Black


and


Black


1987;


Heyman


1985;


Scher


1992)


Republican


identification


declined


1964


nearly


one-half


1960


level,


and


would


not


reach


1960


levels


again


until


1980,


even


among


white


Southerners


(Black


and


Black


1987)


Much


the


Republican


vote


was


believed


to be a protest


against


a national


Democratic


party


too


liberal


Southern


interests.


The


voting


behavior


Southerners


the


1968


presidential


election


indicates


the


uncertainty


with


which


Southerners


approach


Republicanism.


Southerners


while


chose


embracing


instead


neither.


to send


The


a message


message


to both


to Democrats


parties

was a


protest


against


liberal


policies


and


the


national


party


known


that


other


Democrats


were


ready


to step


forward


to represent


Southern


interests.


Republicans


message


was


that


Southerners


would


turn


an acceptable


Democrat


to protect


their


interests


before


turning


the


Republican


party


The


South


was


to be


taken


granted.


Southerners


been


supporting


Republican


presidential


nominees


at high


level


since


1952


, but


were


not


a reliable


part


of a Republican


voting


coalition.


The


Wallace


the


vote


national


continued

Democratic


protest


party


of Southerners


Wallace


carried


aimed


Alabama,


Georgia,


Loui


slana,


Mississ


ipp:


i in


the


Deep


South


and


- -^_ *


-A'-


a. ---1


y- ----


-.. --11


rr -? _l -


_, _


^2


~_L









Democrat


Hubert


Humphrey


came


in third.


1948,


Deep


South


voters


rejected


Democratic


party


, but


were


not


ready


to substitute


the


Republican


party


in its


place.


Twice


over


a sixteen-year


period


the


Deep


South


states


supported


a presidential


candidate


outside


the


Democratic


party


without


turning


to the


Republicans.


The


1972


election


offered


no third-party


alternative,


and


Southerners


were


content


with


Nixon


presidency.


The


vote


deci


sion


was


difficult


most


Southerners.


The


Democrats


nominated


a Northern


liberal,


George


McGovern,


who


failed


to be competitive


nationwide.


Nixon


refined


Southern


strategy


with


use


of code


words


such


"forced


busing"

voters


and

who


"quotas

opposed


," both

school


of which a

integration


appealed

and af


to Southern


firmative


action.


Nixon


appealed


to Southerners


in other


ways--strong


military,


stopping


spending,


appointment


strict


Constructionists


to the


Supreme


Court


(Peirce


1974).


The


election


1972


cannot


a precise


measure


Republican


breadth


support


of Republican


South,


acceptance


does


indicate


of presidential


nominees,


given


a clear


choice.


Both


subregions


the


South


gave


Nixon


majorities


, the


first


time


a Republican


nominee


received


majority


support


entire


region.


Without


George


Wallace


option


black-belt


whites


showed


increasing


1tDontihi 4 nni


w; 1 nn *c


C~ a t~n~ a









The


most


revealing


evidence


of Republican


development


and


acceptance


can


be found


the


research


of Louis


Seagull


(1975).


The


next


section


, a state-by-state


examination


the


bases


of Southern


Republicanism,


relies


heavily


Seagull'


indepth


study


of Southern


Republicanism.


Seagull


argues


that


a reliable


basi


the


Republican


vote


exists


because


of realignment


of middle-class


white-collar


whites


the


South


Seagull


explains


Republican


vote


as the


product


the


white


contributions


-collar


segment,


the


traditional


the


Republicans


black-belt


the


sector.


Recognizing


the


South


monolithic


distinct


geographical


social


differences


exist


the


region


Seagull


categorizes


the


states


the


manner


accepted


many


researchers


of Southern


politics


, the


Deep


South


the


Rim


South


(Bass


DeVries


1976;


Black


and


Black


1987;


Lamis


1984;


Scher


1992


Peirce


1974)


Although


a part


eleven


Confederate


states


often


considered


"the


South,


" the


Deep


South


states


have


geographical,


social


political


characteristics


that


differ


from


those


Rim


South


states.


The


, flat


plantation


-size


farm


lands


,a large


black


population,


and


slave


labor


story


contributed


heavily


the


political


differences


between


subregions


the


South.


One


result


A-'- -e,-'i


3Inr1 4 3


SL


nI a -I


s^

A-L










third-party


movements


which


were


successful


in attracting


support


the


from


upland


the


black-belt


counties.


Both


counties


Solid


and


South


and


lesser


degree


third-party


activity


reflect


the


Deep


South'


attitude


on the


race


issue.


The


reluctance


Deep


South


to accept


the


political


realities


of a changing


society


resulted


instability


voting


behavior


Southerners


particularly


voters


the


black


belt.


This


instability


was


accompanied


a growing


white


-collar


sector


which


would


become


basi


of a stable


and


significant


Republican


vote


and


separate


partisans


along


economic


dimensions.


Between


1952


1972


the


variability


Republican


strength


was


result


surge


movements


, not


durable


shift


social


bases


of support.


Drawing


Seagull'


research


one


can


explain


large


degree


dynamics


of presidential


elections


the


South


and


the


ses


of Southern


presidential


Republicanism


on a


state-by


-state


level.


Deen


South


States


Alabama


The


mountain


county


of Alabama


provided


Alabama'


Republican


party


with


a small


stable


vote


during


the


ADaonrlh i an


crinnnrt


nVsr


thP


^^^ I^ ^h *tk ^B ^b


rlrk


1QAn a<


| It1









the


1972


election


of Nixon


were


result


surges


and


withdrawals


of support


the


black-belt


and


white-collar


sectors.


The


came


first

1952 w


departure


hen


from


Eisenhower


a stable


drew


traditional


considerable


GOP


support


vote

from


both


the


white-collar


sector


black


-belt


voters


addition


to the


traditional


Republican


vote


The


black-belt


vote


was


least


stable


three,


1956


black-belt


counties'


contribution


declined.


The


white-collar


sector


contribution


increased


steadily


until


1960,


and


traditional


mountain


vote


remained


relative


stable.


Goldwater'


Southern


strategy


brought


a second


discontinuity


into


Alabama'


Republican


vote


1964.


Comparison


with


the


average


vote


in the


state


indicates


the


white-collar


sector


traditional


mountain


support


were


less


influential


Republican


vote


than


the


black-belt


counties.


Both


traditional


support


and


the


white-collar


vote


contributed


negatively


the


total


Republican


vote.


Seagull'


study


(1975)


indicates


the


importance


race


Alabama's


1964


presidential


vote


well


as the


1968


election.


The


from


1968


previous


election


elections.


brought


Nixon'


another


support


severe


came


departure


almost









The


GOP


vote


correlated


highly


with


1940


vote,


although


the


white-collar


sector


contributed


significantly


1968


The


elections


between


1948


1968


indicate


the


reluctance


of Alabama


voters


to give


Republicans


a large


and


stable


presidential


vote.


Given


an alternative


1968,


Alabama


voters


abandoned


GOP,


leaving


only


a small


traditional


vote


the


white-collar


sector


to support


Nixon.


This


was


pattern


throughout


Deep


South


states.


GeorQia


Georgia'


Republican


presidential


vote


was


one


most


stable


during


period


1940-1960.


Even


1952


the


GOP


vote


did


alter


severely


1948


distribution.


Outside


1952


, Georgia


Alabama


were


the


most


stable


the


Deep


South


states.


Georgia'


stable


Republican


vote


can


traced


to a small


traditional


vote


the


entire


twenty-year

Republican


period

support


from

was


1940

joined


to 1960.


1952


The


traditional


a white-collar


vote


that


proved


to be


very


stable.


Georgia'


white-collar


sector,


although


a stable


part


of Republican


support,


played


ess


prominent


role


than


Deep


South


states


except


Louisiana.


Between


1940


1960


black-belt


support


was


missing


from


the


traditional


Republican


and


white-collar


voting


coalition.








Georgia'


pattern


of stability


was


disrupted


Goldwater'


1964


presidential


bid.


The


sources


instability


were


the


black-belt


counties.


Black


-belt


counties


gave


their


support


to a Republican


candidate


the


first


time


1964.


The


effects


race


and


Goldwater'


Southern


strategy


were


evident,


as black-belt


voters


were


the


most


prominent


segment


of Republican


support.


Nevertheless,


even


Goldwater


landslide


, Seagull


(1975)


was


able


to document


a small


positive


contribution


from


the


played


white-collar


a large


and


sector


prominent


The

role


white


the


-collar

1968 e


sector

election


the


black


-belt


voters


withdrew


their


support


to help


George


Wallace


carry


the


state.


The


persis


tence


the


white-collar


sector


in 1964


prominence


1968


are


strong


indications


the


stability


the


white-collar


vote


and


place


squarely


the


core


of Republican


support


Georgia.


Even


with


the


disruption


Goldwater


vote,


Georgia'


Republican


vote


was


one


most


stable


the


Deep


South


states


between


1944


1968.


The


black-belt


county


provided


a positive


contribution


the


GOP


only


once


during


this


period.


The


traditional


and


white-collar


sectors


contributed


positively


in each


election


between


1948


and


1968


the


three


voting


sectors


were


inundated


thP


hnae


Ni Yon


win


1972








Louisiana


Louisiana


was


the


only


Deep


South


state


in which


black


belt


was


a positive


contributor


the


Republican


presidential


vote


during


1940s.


Republicanism


was


used


as an


instrument


of protest


against


the


national


Democratic


party


until


. While


1968,


black-belt


white-collar


support


sector


proved


increased


to be unstable


support


consistently


Even


with


large


black-belt


vote


1964


white-collar


contribution


was


positive


and


significant.


Black-belt


voters


left


Republicans


to support


Wallace


1968


The


prominence


importance


the


white-collar


vote


was


evident.


The


large


Nixon


win


1972


overwhelmed


contribution


black-belt


traditional


Republican


vote


, but


white-collar


vote


remained


positive


although


a smaller


contribution.


SS1SS1DDI


Mississippi'


Republican


support


was


entirely


dependent


on the


traditional


Republican


sector


prior


to 1952


. In


SS1SS


ippi


meant


urban


Republicans


Traditional


Republicans,


black-belt


voters,


white-collar


sector


were


strong


positive


contributors


the


GOP


vote


in the


1952


1956


elections.


an independent


Republicans


the


black-belt


slate


white-collar


contribution


of electors.


sector


was


The


remained


lost


traditional


stable








through


1960.


The


three


segments


displayed


unstable


patterns


of support


between


1960


1972.


The


traditional


GOP


vote


provided


a minuscule


contribution


1964


Republican


sweep


the


state


, and


the


white-collar


contribution


was


sharply


reduced


from


the


levels


the


1952


-1960


period.


Black-belt


support


was


highest


level


since


1952


Miss


issippi'


GOP


vote


was


truly


unstable


and


continued


to be


through


1972.


The


traditional


Republicans


the


white-collar


vote


again


played


the


1960.


a prominent


levels


The


role


played


traditional


the

vote


the


1968


elections


election


from


black-belt


, although


1952


not


through


counties


and


white-collar


sector


provided


negative


contributions


the


state


Republican


vote


1972


South


Carolina


South


Carolina


displayed


the


least


stability


the


Deep


South


states


in Republican


presidential


voting


prior


1960


Third-party


activity


explains


some


the


instability.


Seagull'


(1975)


computations


found


little


relationship


1952-1956


between


1952


the


South


electoral


Carolina


patterns


could


vote


1948-1952


and


the


Republican


candidate


on an independent


elector


slate.


Eisenhower


drew


a near-majority


vote.


Traditional


Republicans,


the


white-collar


sector,


and


the


black


belt


1 1









black-belt


support


was


a negative


contributor


enhower'


reelection


The


black-belt


counties


supported


independent


slate


of electors


Senator


Harry


Byrd.


Byrd


was


leader


of massive


resistance


integration


of school


who


drew


strong


support


from


rural


whites


(Bass


DeVries


1976)


traditional


GOP


voters


continued


to support


Republican


nominee


1956


white-collar


voters'


contribution


was


substantial


although


less


than


1952


Instability


Republican


vote


was


the


pattern


again


1960


Nixon


matched


proportion


vote


received


Eisenhower


1952


with


a high


level


of support


from


the


black


belt


The


white-collar


vote


was


very


strong,


but


the


traditional


Republican


contribution


was


a negative


influence


on the


statewide


vote.


The


black


belt


continued


to support


vote


Republicans


independent


in 1964


candidacy


, but


withdrew


of George


in 1968


Wallace.


The


high


level


of backing


from


white-collar


sector


continued


1964


1968,


indicating


a stable


Republican


core


of white-collar


supporters.


traditional


Republican


vote


was


a negative


contributor


each


election


from


1960


through


1972


Seagull


(1975)


found


evidence


of a stable


Republican


white-collar


vote


South


Carolina,


unlike


other


Deep


South


states,


of which


experienced


instability


nlnnS: I


Ckh


-1 1="








The


Rim


South


States


The


Rim


South'


political


distinctiveness


has


origins


geographical


demographical


factors.


Traditional


mountain


Republican


support


can


traced


elections


prior


to the


slave


issue,


the


Civil


War,


and


Reconstruction.


Low


black


population


outside


the


Deep


South


states


resulted


in a populace


ess


sus


ceptible


to racially


motivated


third-party


activity


The


Rim


South


has


larger


traditional


distributed


Republican


across


population


states.


which


The


is more


result


extensively


a more


stable


Republican


vote.


Arkansas


Arkansas'


electoral


behavior


most


like


the


Deep


South


than


any


the


other


Rim


South


states.


The


state


gave


George


Wallace


only


Rim


South


victory


1968


, and


Wallace'


vote


was


higher


than


South


Carolina,


a Deep


South


state.


elections


Outside


the


1960s,


of Winthrop


Arkansas


Rockefeller'


ected


two


a Republican


governor


a single


-year


term,


1980


-1982


Between


1962


and


1988,


Arkansas


did


elect


a Republican


senator


During


the


1980-1988


period,


Arkansas


Republicans


failed


run


a candidate


U.S.


Senate,


House


of Representatives,


and


Governor


more


frequently


than


Rim


South


state


except


Texas


put


a challenger


ess


often


than


ssiss


ippi








House,


and


Governor


have


won


20 percent


races


compared


a mean


38 percent


Rim


South


and


28 percent


Deep


South.


Arkansas


Republicans


have


held


the


least


number


of state


legis


lative


seats


Rim


South


state


less


than


Georgia


South


Carolina


Deep


South


(Scher


1992).


Lamis


(1984)


found


Arkansas


exhibited


more


traditional


Democratic


party


loyalty


than


other


Rim


South


state,


Ranney


scal


measuring


interparty


competition


within


states


computed


Bibby


al. (1990)


1970s


1980s


show


Arkansas


most


similar


the


Deep


South


states


The


traditional


Republican


vote


is small,


provided


stable


support


from


1944


1960


traditional


support


declined


sharply


1964,


increased


contribution


from


the


black


belt


kept


the


GOP


vote


43 percent,


equal


the


vote


1960


The


black-belt

previous c


contribution


contribution


was


in any


twice


as large


election.


The


1964


Arkansas


its

black


belt


remained


except


1968


loyal


and


to Democratic


contributed


presidential


Republican


candidates


vote


significant


Wallace


level


1968


only


, while


1964


Black-belt


white-collar


support


sector


stayed


went


with


the


Republican.


The


white-collar


sector


Arkansas


displayed


irregular


vote


Eisenhower's


pattern.


win


After


1952


contributing


1956,


the


substantially


white-collar


_


--ww








action


Goldwater


Little


Rock


candidacy.


1964


Significant


response


white


-collar


the


support


returned


to the


Republican


column


1968,


was


only


minimum


positive


influence


Nixon


win


1972


The


traditional


vote,


white-collar


sector,


and


black-belt


support


explain


little


large


Republican


vote


1972


Florida


Florida'


Republican


vote


was


very


stable


prior


1964.


Republican


presidential


candidates


received


a high


level


very


stable


support


from


a small


traditional


Republican


segment.


that


time


most


GOP


support


came


from


migrants


to south


Florida


(Lamis


1984).


The


white


-collar


sector


showed


signs


of attraction


GOP


as early


1948


, and


between


1952


1960


contributed


significant


support


to Republican


pres


idential


candidates


Perhaps


the


most surprise

Florida was


result

finding


of Seagull'


(1975)


of a substantial


analy


GOP


sis


vote


in the


black-belt


counties


from


1952


through


1960.


The


Goldwater


nomination


brought


great


instability


the


Republican


vote


1964.


Florida'


Republican


vote


was


the


most


unstable


the


Rim


South


1972


The


states


over


traditional


three


vote


elections


white


-collar


between


sector,


1964


and


and


the


black


-belt


counties


made


negative


contributions


the


- a -


1


I


A mR q


* JL


I ----








explain


vote,


appears


to be related


the


geographical


dispersion


of GOP


support


moved


from


being


disproportionately


concentrated


Southern


part


the


state


to being


disproportionately


concentrated


the


less

and


populous

population


counties

were po


of north


sitively


Florida.

correlated


Florida'


except


GOP

1964


vote

and


1972


The


traditional


support


white


-collar


sectors


contributed


substantially


Republican


vote


1968


Florida


and


Tennessee


were


only


two


Rim


South


states


where


the


black


belt


made


a positive


contribution


the


Republican


vote


in 1968.


Neverthel


ess


, Florida'


electoral


cleavages


in the


elections


1964


through


1972


were


more


similar


the


Deep


South


states


than


other


Rim


South


states


With


Nixon'


overwhelming


win


1972,


contributions


the


three


sectors


were


obliterated


the


SIX


presidential


elections


beginning


1952,


Florida


voters


gave


the


GOP


54 percent


vote.


Republican


support


increased


became


widely


dispersed


across


state


between


1952


1972


with


traditional


vote


and


the


white-collar


sector


contributing


at high


levels


except


1964


1972.








North


Carolina


North


Carolina


Tennessee


appear


to have


similar


and


stable


Republican


support.


Both


states


have


large


traditional


mountain


Republican


support


and


a high


degree


vote


correlation


between


contiguous


elections.


Neverthel


ess


, the


North


Carolina


support


came


from


different


and


changing


social


basi


North


Carolina'


traditional


Republican


support


declined


steadily


between


1944


1972


1972


contribution


GOP


vote


was


negative.


Tennessee'


traditional


vote


declined


only


slightly


and


remained


very


high


until


1972.


North


Carolina


Republicans


experienced


surge


of support


from


white


-collar


sector


beginning


1952


, and


that


support


remained


very


strong


until


1972


when


declined,


but


remained


positive.


Evidence


strength


white-collar


sector


the


Republican


vote


stability


the


vote


the


1960


, 1964,


1968


elections.


North


Carolina'


white


-collar


vote


remained


very


stable


unlike


most


Southern


stat


es.


Only


Texas


splayed


a more


stable


Republican


white


-collar


vote


over


three


elections.


North


Carolina'


black


belt


did


make


a pos


itive


contribution


the


GOP


presidential


vote


any


election


between


1944


1972


every


other


Southern


state


the


black


belt


was


a positive


contributor


in at


least


one









growth


the


white-collar


sector


decline


the


traditional


support


as a function


of intensity


of party


loyalty


and


level


of partisan


security


between


the


Republican


parties


of Tennessee


North


Carolina


Tennessee'


because


the


state.


Republicans


their


were


political


Tennessee'


much


more


strength


Democrats


secure


the


virtually


loyal


eastern


conceded


part


to the


GOP


the


two


eastern


congressional


seats,


while


North


Carolina'


live"


Democrats


attitude,


did


rather


take


they


same


campaigned


"live


North


Carolina'


traditional


Republican


areas,


thus


weakening


intensity


of party


loyalti


es.


Tennessee


The


high


level


voting


stability


Tennessee


can


traced


the


traditional


Republican


vote


the


thirty


-five


eastern co

correlated


unties


Republican


state.


vote


Tennessee


pattern


between


had a highly

each election


from


1944


1972


Prior


to 1952


, Republican


support


came


almost


entirely


from


traditional


Republican


counties.


The


traditional


support


contributor


remained


GOP


vote


stable


through


was


1968


a high


The


positive


stability


the


traditional


vote


played


large


role


Nixon


plurality


1968.


In 1972


traditional


Republicans


supported


he party


at a significant


level


, but


one








elections.


The


black-belt


and


white-collar


sectors


have


been


less


stable


and


contributed


in a varied


pattern


to GOP


presidential


candidates.


The


white-collar


sector


contributed


positively


1952


1956,


below


levels


the


Deep


South


states.


Since


1956


the


white-collar


vote


contribution


has


been


small,


positive.


Seagull


(1975)


suggests


the


large


traditional


Republican


vote


limits


emergence


a newer


cleavage.


The


black-belt


contribution


1952


was


greater


than


that


the


white-collar


sector,


but


was


much


ess


stable.


The


black


-belt


contribution


1956


was


barely


positive.


1960


and


1964


contribution


of black-belt


counties


was


positive


and


large.


1968


black


-belt


support


but


vanished,


returned


to a significant


positive


level


1972


Tennessee'


black


belt


was


very


unstable


contributor


to GOP


presidential


support.


The


traditional


vote,


white-collar


sector


and


the


black


belt


contributed


positively


the


Republican


vote


except


1944


1948.


Tennessee


was


the


only


Southern


state


which


three


sectors


made


positive


contributions


the


Republican


vote


1972


Texas


In Texas


movement


Republican


base


support


from


the


traditional


Republicans


white-collar


sector









steadily


and


dramatically


from


1948


through


1964,


returned


to a significant


level


1968,


but


declined


sharply


again


1972


1972


the


traditional


Republican


support


was


barely


positive.


During


same


period


the


white-collar


sector'


support


increased,


less precipitously


The


white-collar


vote


became


core


Texas


GOP


support.


In 1960,


1964


and


1968


the


white-collar


sector


in Texas


was


the


most


stable


contributor


Republican


vote


in all


the


Southern


states.


The


Texas


black


belt


been


relative


consistent


attitude


toward


GOP


presidential


candidates.


The


black-belt


counties


never


gave


the


Republicans


a substantial


positive


vote


contribution.


black


belt'


effect


on the


Republican


vote


was


negative


five


of eight


presidential


elections


from


1944


through


1972


Black


-belt


counties


made


a small


positive


contribution


only


1948,


1956


, and


1964


Lyndon


Johnson'


candidacies


1960


1964


no doubt


slowed


Republican


progress


, and


Texas


was


the


only


Southern


state


1972


was


remain


Democratic


smallest


1968.


Southern


Texas'


states


GOP


, and


vote


the


traditional


and


white-collar


sectors


played


a positive


small


role


the


Republican


landslide


win.









Viracinia


Seagull's


(1975)


analysis reveals only


a weak


explanation of the Republican vote


Virginia.


There was a


"blurring


and softening"


of former


bases of


cleavage,


but


low coefficients


from the


independent variables made


explanation difficult.


Seagull


attributes


the softening to


a rapidly


expanding population and enfranchisement and


suggested that distribution of


the vote across


the


Commonwealth


was so


similar that


the


low coefficients may


effective predictors


(1975)


Virginia's traditional


support declined


steadily


between


1944


1964


and contributed


insignificantly to


Goldwater vote.


The traditional


vote contribution was


positive


1968


, but became negative


in the


1972


election.


The black-belt sector supported GOP presidential


candidates


in a


"surge and decline"


pattern.


The black-belt


counties made small


but positive contributions


in the


elections of


1952


1964,


but were negative contributors


in each


other


election between


1944


1972.


The white-collar


sector


contributed significantly


elections


from


1948


1960


provided a negative


contribution


in 1964.


The white-collar vote


contribution


was small but positive


1968,


1972


was


negative


once again.









The


Republica

Southern


state-by-state


support


examination


indicate


electorate


white-collar


sector


the


substantial

presidential


succeeded


social


changes

level.


traditional


bases


the


The


Republicans


the


core


of GOP


support.


expansion


strength


the


white-collar


sector


is particularly


evident


the


three-way


race


1968.


A persistent


stable


white-collar


vote


present


despite


the


appeal


Wallace


candidacy


The


data


also


indicate


that


voting


cleavages


the


two


subregions


differ


more


than


slightly.


The


white-collar


sector


made


larger


gains


as a


proportion


Republican


vote


Deep


South


states


than


the


Rim


South.


white-collar


vote


in the


Deep


South,


except


Alabama,


made


a larger


contribution


Republican


vote


than


the


traditional


Republican


sector.


The


traditional


vote


in the


Rim


South


continued


to make


the


greatest


contribution


to Republican


support,


although


the


white-collar


vote


was


positive


significant


most


elections


between


1952


1968


The


three


sectors


explain


little


1972


vote


two


subregions.


There


is sufficient


evidence


to suggest


that


force


present


Goldwater


vote


1964


the


Nixon


Wallace


votes


1968


played


a prominent


role


the


1972


Republican


vote.


Seagull


(1975)


suggested


that


the









The


black


belt


remained


fluid


to 1972


, but


made


positive


presidential


contribution


election


to the


in every


Republican


Southern


vote


state


least


except


one


North


Carolina.


An expanding


white-collar


sector


became


a stable


core


of support


Republicans.


Traditional


Republican


support


continued


to play


a positive


role


the


Republican


vote.


1972


Republican


acceptance


the


presidential


level


was


an accomplished


fact.


The


Carter


nomination


1976


gave


Southerners


a second


opportunity


four


elections


to choose


between


acceptable


Democrat


and


a conservative


Republican


not


offensive


the


South.


Again


, Southerners


voted


the


Democrat.


1976


election


indicated


real


level


presidential


Republicanism


in the


South.


Even


with


Southerner


the


head


Democrat


ticket


and


the


race


issue


removed,


Southern


Republicans


remained


competitive


receiving


45 percent


vote.


In 1980,


with


a true


conservative


heading


Republican


slate


aided


with


the


ineffectiveness


the


Carter


admini


station,


Southerners


gave


a majority


votes


the


GOP


spite


of a Southern


candidate.


Republican


Southern


pre


vote


sidential


nominees


in presidential


received


elections


from


57 percent


1972


through


1984


The


GOP


won


deci


sively


or has been









nominee,


but


even


Carter


produced


no landslide


of support.


Black


and


Black


(1987)


found


Southern


Republican


support


comes


from


three


sources:


traditional


mountain


Republicans,


urban


Republicans,


and


interstate


Republicans


(1987)


The


first


two


were


discussed


earlier.


Urban


GOP


voters


and


traditional


Republicans


remain


key


to Republican


successes.


The


most


recent


Republican


support


comes


from


smaller


population


centers


traversed


the


interstate


highway


system


which


Black


Black


conclude


is an


indication


the


attractiveness


Republican


party


the


middle


class


beyond


metropolitan


areas


(1987)


The


acceptance


of Republicanism


the


presidential


level


was


completed


1972.


Even


though


Jimmy


Carter


won


the


South


1976,


native


Southerner


could


not


achieve


landslide


win


a majority


region

the w


and,


white


more

vote.


importantly


Pres


he failed


identical


Republicanism


was


established


most


dynamic


metropolitan


areas


South,


most


rapidly


growing


areas


, and


was


spreading


middle


classes


the


small


urban


areas.


The


GOP


captured


votes


of white


Southerners


the


since


Democratic


1968


party


in 1964


black vote

Black and


moved

Black


securely

conclude


into

the


Republican

elections


party


is the

South,


dominant


party


outside


in presidential


"stupendous


S a a


* I


11


(I~


1


* *


I I









the


Democratic


party


as noncompetitive,


nor


do they


view


the


Republican


party


as pervasive


and


stable


as the


Democrats


during


the


Roosevelt


years.


They


see


the


Democrats


winning


presidential


contests


only


under


unusual


circumstances


such


as an array


of short-term


forces


working


against


the


Republicans


(1987).


The


evenly


GOP


dominance


distributed


among


press


idential


Southern


states


elections


or voters.


Presidential


lines.


elections


Southern


divide


Republicans


along

have a


racial


ained


and


the


economic


support


white


middle-cl


ass


voters.


Carter'


reelection


bid


drew


approximately


one-third


Southern


whites


the


Democratic


column.


Southern


blacks


have


voted


solidly


Democratic


, with


GOP


press


idential


nominees


receiving


no more


than


a minuscule


share


the


Southern


black


vote


since


1964


The


black


vote


became


a potentially


significant


force


Southern


elections


with


passage


the


Voting


Rights


Act


1965


The


Deep


South


states


have


the


highest


black


populations


the


nation.


Since


1964


Southern


blacks


have


demonstrated


their


overwhelming


support


Democratic


presidential


candidates.


Neverthel


ess


, the


loss


almost


all

The


black

next


support


two


is not


chapters


will


only


review


flaw


Southern


Republican

voting be


growth.


havior


and


discuss


the


revelations


implications


future


- -


1~









Notes


1See


Strong


(1960)


Seagull


(1975).


2Harry Truman was not or
the states Thurmond won,
sumed the ballot position
rty. The "Dixicrats" had
ere the Republican nominee
comfortable margin.


the Alabama ballot. In each
he States' Rights Democrats
formally held by the Democratic
little appeal in the Rim South
actually outpolled Thurmond by


'A
50,000


metropolitan county
or more residents.


defined


as one


with


a city


4Frank Bryan, in Politics in the Rural States (Boulder,
CO: Westview Press, 1981), found SES provided a more
reliable explanation than urbanism for the GOP vote in
Mississippi.


5Nixon's vote was simiL
Republican nominee in 1960
Louisiana, states Eisenhowe
home state of the Democrati
and the large Catholic popu
helped carry the state for


Lar t(
failed
r won
c Vic
latio
John


o Eisenhower's,
d to carry Texa
in 1956. Texa
e-Presidential
n in southern L
Kennedy.


but
s an
s wa
cand
ouis


the
d
s the
idate,
iana


6John
special el
B. Johnson
actually r
Vice-Presi
received 4
Republican
century.


Tower received
section to fill
who was elected
an for reelecti
dent. His 196C
1 percent of tt
U.S. Senator f


50.6 percent of i
the U.S. Senate s
id Vice-President
[on to the Senate
)opponent was Joh
te vote. Tower be
trom the South in


the vote in
eat of Lynd
in 1960. J
as well as
n Tower, wh
came the fi
the twentie


a
on
ohnson
for
o
rst
th


7Se<
Strategy
(1971),


e E. M.
versus
pp. 155


Schreiber, "Where the
Fourth Party," Public
-167.


Ducks Are: Southern
Opinion Quarterly 35


8See
H. White,
Athenian,


CBS News Election
The Making of the
1973).


Day Survey
President


ited
(New


in Theodore
York:


manor


argument


there


has


been


realignment


basis
white-
cleava
-


of the
collar
ges in
a S *


n the
Repub
secto
the s


Southern Republic
lican vote in the
r. Seagull examine
separate Southern s


an
Sou
es
tat


vote
th is
a corn
es.


and the reli
in the
mon set of
Similarities


9Seagull'


able









variables


voter
respe
1940,
the p
white
Seagu
conve
count
regis
addit
varia

vote,
regre
most


draw
Cont
Coef
are


are


, and t
tively,
the pro
oportio
collar
1 refer
ience,
level.
ration


ional
bles.
Seagul
corre
ssion


the


he whit
by the
portion
n of th
occupat
s to th
as the
Where
rates a


control


traditional


e-coll
propo
Negro
e empl
ions a
e prop
black
avail


als


their


1 utilizes thr
lation of vote
analysis--to e


important


ar s
rtio
in
oyed
s de
orti
belt
able
o in


Republi
ector.
n Repub
the pop


popul
fined
on Neg
. All
, data
eluded


a
b
r


effects


e levels of
over time,
timate which


in accounting


"The state-by-state discus
s substantially on Seagull
iguous Pairs of Republican
ficients for Republican Pr'
included as an appendix to


cans, b
They a
lican f
ulation
tion wo
y the U
o in 19
measure
on Negr
in the


the


lack-belt
re measured,
or President
in 1960, and
rking in
.S. Census.
60, for
s are at the
o voting
analysis for


independent


analysis--strength
and a multiple
cleavages are the


Republican


sion
's ta
Vote
side
this


>f Republican
les, Correlat
by State and
tial Votes.
research.


vote


support
ions of
Regression
The tables


"S
contri
third-
Louisi
signif


eagull
buted
party
ana ba
icant


found
positive
and ind
llot in
support


Lou
ely
epe]
191
on:


isi
to
nde.
48,
ly


ana'
thi
nt e
195
in t


white-collar
-party movem'
action slates
1960, and 1!
black belt.


sect
ents.
were
968,


.or never
Although
on the
they drew


1Arkansas was the o
Democratic in the 1928
South states also voted
four Deep South states


,nly Rim South
presidential
Democratic.
in support of


state to
election.
Arkansas
Wallace


vote
The Deep
also joined
in 1968.












CHAPTER


THE


INSTITUTIONALIZATION


OF PARTY


COMPETITION


NONPRESIDENTIAL


POLITICS


The


preceding


chapters


traced


the


rise


the


Solid


South,


decline,


phenomenon


of Southern


presidential


Republicanism.


Chapter


describes


the


voting


behavior


of Southerners


at levels


below


the


Pres


idency


Thi


chapter


demonstrates


that


Republican


development


been


from


the


top


down.


While


being


succe


ssful


the


presidential


level,


the


GOP


had


much


less


success


the


congressional


state


level.


The


data


chapter


allow


the


examination


Southern


Republican


growth


at levels


of elective


offi


essential


to development


of a fully


competitive


two-party


tem.


More


importantly,


data


reveal


constraints


Republican


party


development


South.


Indicators


drawn


from


data


will


be developed


into


variable


which


will


measured


tested


a later


chapter


as to


their


influence


on the


success


or failure


of Southern


Republican


development


nine


pres


idential


elections


between


1956


and


1988


resulted


divided


government


Voters


chose









divide


the


Congress


and


the


Presidency


between


the


two


manor


political


parties.


Some


research


sees


thi


as an advantage


the


the


GOP


South.


and


beginning


A positive


two-party


indication


that


development


Southern


conservatives


have


been


comfortable


voting


Republi


can


presidential


nominees


since


1964


and


are


finding


easier


to support


GOP


candidates


at other


level


of electoral


offi


(Cavanaugh


and


Sundquist


1985)


The


South


has


played


an essential


role


election


of GOP


presidential


candidates


since


1968


when


Richard


Nixon


carried


five


Rim


South


states


and


South


Carolina.


Southern


presidential


Republicans


are


Southern


conservatives


who,


in time,


will


become


Republicans


cast


a partisan


vote


offi


ces


from


the


Presidency


down


(Bullock


1988;


Cavanaugh


and


Sundquist


1985)


optimistic


shared


students


view


of Republican


of Southern


voting


growth


behavior.


Kevin


. Phillips


(1982)


sees


the


nation


having


Republican


majority


at the


presidential


level,


a competitive


Senate,


a Democratic


House


of Representatives.


Thi


assumes


the


the


electoral


continuation

te, something


ticket


Phillips


call


-splitting


"split


behavior


-level


realignment"


. 94)


Other


reasonable


assumptions


are


that


the


South


the


Republicans


continue


agree


on national


and


ideologically


charged


issues


and


Democratic


Congress










While


voting


regularly


Republican


presidential


nominees


over


the


past


two


decades,


Southerners


have


been


ess


enthusiastic


about


GOP


candidates


other


offices.


U.S.


Senate


Elections


The


election


of Republicans


to the


U.S.


Senate


from


Southern


states


began


with


John


Tower


of Texas


1961


Tower


became


the


first


Southern


Republican


Senator


in the


twentieth


century.


Strom


Thurmond,


a converted


Democrat


from


South


Carolina,


was


reelected


1966


as a Republican.


Howard


Baker


of Tennessee


was


elected


to his


first


term


the


same


year


Southern


Republican


representation


Senate


grew


steadily


the


Southern


over


1962-1972


delegation


period,


1972


reaching


Tower


32 percent


Thurmond


, and


Baker


were


reelected


during


the


period


and


would


provide


a stable


base


a varying


proportion


of Southern


Republicans


in the


Senate.


Republican


success


in Senate


races


did


slow


entering


1970s.


Florida


had


elected


Edward


. Gurney


in 1968


Tennessee


chose


a second


Republican,


William


Brock,


1970.


Virginia


and


North


Carolina


followed


with


the


selection


of William


Scott


Jesse


Helms


, respectively


, in


1972.


Southern


Republicans


were


riding


crest


region'


dissatis


faction


with


the


National


Democratic


Party


over


civil


rights


issues


and


ths


nnmina i t n


SI


1 ihPral


nr i denti al


candidates.


Between









suffered


along


with


the


entire


party


across


electoral


levels


after


the


"Watergate


affair.


Gurney


surfaced


did


that


not


was


run


reelection


involved


helping


in 1974


friends


after


get


charges


housing


contracts


and


Brock


lost


1976


after


serving


a single


term.


Scott


chose


to seek


a second


term


1978


John


Warner


was


elected


, preserving


one


Republican


Senate


seat


Virginia.


to 1978


Republican


senators


from


the


South


were


elected


from


Rim


South


states,


except


Thurmond.


One


reason


Democratic


dominance


in the


Deep


South


was


the


high


proportion


of blacks


who


voted


Democratic


at high


level


Republicans'


best


opportunities


winning


were


when


black


and


white


Democrats


did


vote


as a coalition


and


GOP


was


running


an experienced


candidate.


Thad


Cochran


a U.S


. Representative


from


ssissippi


sneaked


into


the


Senate


1978


with


a 43 percent


plurality


a three-way


race.


Charles


Evers,


an independent


black


candidate,


split


the


remaining


vote


with


Democrat


Maurice


Danton.


Entering


the


1980s


, Republicans


held


ess


than


one-third

of the Re


the


publican


Southern Senate

victories were


seats.


won


Sixty

Tower,


-two


percent


Thurmond,


and


Baker,


who


served


through


1984


when


Baker


resigned


prepare


a run


the


Republican


presidential


nomination


and









Neverthel


ess,


1980


elections


would


bring


four


additional


Southern


Republicans


to the


Senate,


two


from


the


Deep


South


states.


Ronald


Reagan


swept


to victory


the


1980


presidential


election,


states.


carrying


Reagan


ten


helped


carry


eleven

a large


former

number


Confederate

of Republicans


into


office


further


down


the


ticket.


The


percentage


Southern


Senate


seats


held


Republicans


nearly


doubled,


going


from


to 45 percent.


. House


seats


rose


from


to 36 percent,


state


legi


slative


seats


increased


percent,


remained


at 16.6 percent.


Arkansas


elected


first


Republican


governor


since


1968,


Frank


White'


victory


over


Democrat


incumbent


Bill


Clinton


was


less


related


to Reagan'


popularity


than


to Clinton'


auto


license


Cuban


refugee


housing


at Fort


Chaffee.


Clinton


won


the


seat


back


next


election.


Reagan'


ideologically


charged


campaign


was


made


order


Southern


Republican


senatorial


candidates


empha


sizing


well-received


conservative


positions


on busing


abortion,


defense,


government


size,


and


economic


policy


(Cook


1981)


Republican


Senate


candidates


attempted


tie


their


own


campaigns


to that


of Reagan


and


were


largely


successful.


Republican


Senate


candidates


Mack


Mattingly


Georgia,









campaign


and


a national


tide


running


against


the


Democratic


party


(Lamis


1984,


chapter


County-level


correlations


between


Southern


Republican


Senate


challengers


and


the


Reagan


vote


range


from


Mattingly


Denton


. 252


The


four


conservative


Republicans


shared


other


political


characteristics


fate.


All


were


conservative


ideologues


who


lined


behind


the


Reagan


approach


governing;


2.2 percent;

experience;


were


all

and


had

all


elected


very

faced


small


limited

experien


margins


, and


or no previous

ced previous D


average


political


emocrati


officeholders.


None


would


serve


a second


term


All


four


seats


were


lost


to Democrats


1986


elections.


Three


the


four


were


defeated,


East


died


before


his


term


was


completed.


Table


indicates


success


Southern


Republicans


U.S.


Senate


elections.


Between


1966


1978


no Republican


held


a Senate


seat


from


a Deep


South


state


except


Thurmond


who


had


been


elected


first


as a Democrat,


then


as a write-in


candidate


, and


finally


as a Republican.


Republicanism


does


not


appear


be responsible


Republicans


Thurmond'


challenged


success.


Democratic


Rim


South


officeholders


more


frequently


than


Deep


South


Republicans


, and


Rim


South


Republicans


won


more


often


received


a higher


average


vote.


One


advantage


Border


South


Republicans


have


had


over












Table 4.1


Number


and Percentage of


Senatorial Seats


in the


South by


Party,


1966-1988


Year Democratic Republican


1966 19 (86) 3 (14)

1968 18 (82) 4 (18)

19708 16 (73) 5 (23)

1972 14 (64) 7 (32)

1974 15 (68) 6 (27)

1976a 16 (73) 5 (23)

1978 15 (68) 6 (27)

1980 11 (50) 10 (45)

1982 11 (50) 11 (50)

1984 12 (55) 10 (45)

1986 16 (73) 6 (27)

1988 15 (68) 7 (32)


Sources:
Scammon,
Affairs


1966-1970


ed.,


America


Institute,


from Norman J.


computed by author from Richard M


Votes


1966-1988)


Ornstein,


(Washington,


Figures f
Statistics


Vital


Governmental


1972-1988


taken


for Concress,


1989-1990


(Washington,


Congressional


Quarterly


, Inc.,


1990),


Note


: Figures


in parentheses are percentages of


seats


held.


* Harry Byrd,
"i fl^ ?c


Jr.,


elected as an independent


1970








the


Rim


South


between


1962


and


1978


has


given


Rim


South


Republicans


the


incumbent


advantage


in more


races


than


the


Deep


South


where


victories


incumbent


advantage


have


been


highly


limited.


Southern


Republicans


have


made


gains


the


Senate


level


second


only


to presidential


Republicanism


, but


have


held


one-half


the


Southern


seats


only


during


the


two-year


period


1982-1984.


Republicans


have


held


approximately


30 percent


Southern


Senate


seats


over


twenty


years


from


1970-1990


except


the


1980-1986


period


when


the


GOP


held


50 percent


the


seats.


After


the


1986


elections


Republicans


held


27 percent


the


Southern


seats,


the


same


proportion


SS1SS


held


ippi


1988


1974


brought


1978


Victories


Republican


total


Florida


and


seven,


or 32 percent


the


Southern


delegation.


When


viewed


terms


of pre-Watergate


years


, the


post-Watergate


period


, and


the

the


Reagan y

Southern


ears,


the


Senate


Southern


seats


GOP


during


held


the


first


and

two


26 percent

periods,


respectively


Republicans


held


40 percent


the


Southern


seats


during


Reagan


years.


the


later


part


the


1980s


they


held


ess


than


one-third


, a proportion


similar


the


number


held


1970s.


Table


summarizes


Republican


competitiveness


in U.S


. Senate


elections


The


GOP


has


made


gains


U.S


. Senate


level,


but


has


aone


through


a roller-coaster-tvne


electoral


experience


p















u m


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CONSTRAINTS TO REPUBLICAN DEVELOPMENT
THE DEEP SOUTH STATES, 1966-1988
By
WARREN WILLIAMS HEYMAN
A DISSERTATION PRESENTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL
OF THE UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT
OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF
DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY
UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA
1993

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
Few people can successfully complete a dissertation
without a large amount of encouragement and assistance. I
have had a sufficient amount of both.
Professor Richard K. Scher, chairman of my dissertation
committee, provided much encouragement and assistance during
the entire period I was working on this project. Even while
working on his own book Politics in the New South. Dr. Scher
found time to provide supervision and guidance as I
struggled with learning to organize sufficiently to complete
the task at hand. But he did much more. He became a
personal friend, and he included me in projects he was
working on so that I might earn money necessary to stay in
the program and complete the requirements. I am having
difficulty expressing the depth of gratitude I have for
Dr. Scher, but I am sure those who know us both know what I
feel.
I am very grateful for the help given by other special
people. Their help was both encouraging and more practical.
I will never forget the first recommendation for a graduate
assistantship written by Dr. Alfonso J. Damico. I never saw
the recommendation, but just his willingness to take a
xi

chance on me was such a great uplifting. He has never
stopped encouraging me since that very time, and I sincerely
appreciate his help and friendship. Without that first
recommendation, I would not be writing this dissertation.
Similar recommendations have come over the years from
Professor Albert R. Matheny, Professor James W. Button, and
Professor Walter A. Rosenbaum. These gentlemen have always
treated me more as a colleague than a student. Each of them
found ways to do everything in their power to see that I
completed the dissertation.
Professor Kenneth D. Wald and Dr. Button provided
financial assistance and training by allowing me to
participate in some of their research projects. Both of
these gentlemen, along with Professor Wayne L. Francis,
through their official positions in the department, found
teaching funds for me over a period of several years. I am
thankful to them for their trust in my ability to handle the
task of teaching introductory classes as well as an upper
division course.
I thank Kevin Hill for his assistance with the
statistical computations and Professor Michael D. Martinez
for his patience and help with the statistical analysis. I
am very fortunate to have Professor William A. Kelso serve
on my committee, particularly since I am sure he has not
ill

forgotten the ordeal of my lengthy master's thesis.
Professor Kelso has always been encouraging and a strong
supporter. I am very grateful to Professor
Augustus M. Burns III for reading my research and serving on
my committee even though he has his own students and
workload in the History Department.
I am sure I have forgotten someone who was very helpful
along the way. So many people gave so much over the years.
To all of the above as well as those I may have temporarily
forgotten, I wish to express my deepest thanks.
IV

TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ii
ABSTRACT vii
CHAPTER
1 INTRODUCTION 1
Notes 14
2 SOUTHERN REPUBLICANISM AND INTERPARTY
COMPETITION: AN HISTORICAL
PERSPECTIVE 16
A One-Party South 16
Decline of the Solid South 24
Early Development of Southern
Republicanism 32
Notes 40
3 SOUTHERN ACCEPTANCE OF REPUBLICANISM:
PRESIDENTIAL REPUBLICANISM 42
The Deep South States 61
The Rim South States 68
Notes 81
4 THE INSTITUTIONALIZATION OF PARTY
COMPETITION: NONPRESIDENTIAL
POLITICS 83
U.S. Senate Elections 85
House of Representatives Elections 92
Gubernatorial Elections 110
Legislative Elections 126
Down-Ticket Elections 134
Summary 139
Notes 141
5 A CONSTRAINED REPUBLICAN DEVELOPMENT:
STRUCTURAL BARRIERS 14 4
Incumbency 14 6
Traditional Democratic Party Strength 154
v

Page
The Black Vote 165
Candidate Quality 176
Summary 181
Notes 183
6 CONSTRAINTS ON REPUBLICAN GROWTH:
AN EMPIRICAL TEST 185
Theoretical Perspectives 188
Incumbency 189
Traditional Democratic Party Strength 194
The Black Vote 205
Candidate Quality 210
Model 212
Variable Operations and Data 214
Analysis 222
Notes 238
7 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 24 3
Notes 249
APPENDIX 252
REFERENCES 258
BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH 27 2
VI

Abstract of Dissertation Presented to the
Graduate School of the University of Florida
in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the
Degree of Doctor of Philosophy
CONSTRAINTS TO REPUBLICAN DEVELOPMENT:
THE DEEP SOUTH STATES, 1966-1988
By
Warren Williams Heyman
May 1993
Chairman: Dr. Richard K. Scher
Major Department: Political Science
Traditional Democratic hegemony in the South broke down
in the 1950s and 1960s, and the Republican party has made
significant inroads in areas of the South. Initial
Republican gains in the Deep South were generated by
presidential candidates. There is evidence of some
trickle-down effects, but Southern Republicans have not been
consistent challengers or winners of congressional or
statewide offices. The GOP remains a minority party in the
Deep South below the presidential level by a substantial
margin.
This research seeks to explain the slowness of Southern
Grand Old Party (GOP) development as a competitive political
force and alternative to Democratic party dominance after
three decades of strong support for Republican presidential
vii

nominees. The research hypothesizes that Republican
electoral development is constrained by the power and
entrenchment of Democratic officeholders, a strong tradition
of Democratic party support, the voting behavior of black
voters, and the quality of Republican challengers. The four
variables explain a large proportion of the Republican vote
and continued Democratic dominance in the South.
Multiple linear regression is used to test the
hypotheses and estimate the deterrent effect of the
variables collectively and individually. The unit of
analysis is congressional elections at the district level.
The dependent variable is the proportion of the vote
received by GOP congressional candidates. The sample is
drawn from congressional elections in four Deep South states
for the 1966-1988 period. The endpoint of the sample period
is limited by the availability of estimates of the
proportion of voting-age blacks at the congressional
district level.
The regression analysis indicates Democratic incumbents
provide the strongest constraint to Republican electoral
growth. Traditional Democratic party allegiance is a
negative influence on GOP development and remains robust in
models including and without the black vote variable. The
black vote has a small negative effect and the quality of
Vlll

Republican candidates has a small positive effect on the
dependent variable. Neither the black
experience of Republican candidates is
significant.
vote nor the
statistically
ix

CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION
There has been no shortage of research about Southern
politics over the past forty years, particularly since the
1960s when great social and political upheaval and turmoil
took place.1 Prior to the mid-twentieth century the
distinctiveness of the South fascinated researchers. Since
the 1960s the study of Southern politics has been concerned
with change. The high level of interest by scholars,
journalists, political activists, pundits, and other
observers is not difficult to understand, and is even
justified, given the level of changes taking place in the
South. Southerners abandoned the political hegemony of the
Democratic party; blacks demanded and received civil rights
and were enfranchised; blacks became a significant political
force because of their mobilization and solidarity with the
Democratic party; large population growth took place
primarily in the largest urban areas; and whites, mostly
middle class and living in urban areas, began supporting
Republican candidates at some electoral levels. These
changes provide the impetus for my research.2
The breakdown of the Democratic party monopoly came as
no surprise to Southerners and other observers of the
1

2
region's political scene. Its roots extend back to the
Roosevelt and Truman administrations (Key 1949) .3 For some,
two-party politics was welcomed as a healthy alternative
providing competition in an existing system which was rigid,
authoritarian, oligarchic, archaic, unresponsive, and
undemocratic (1949). The importance of understanding
Southern Republicans' role in the political-party fabric of
the nation can be cast in practical political terms. One
only needs to examine presidential elections over the past
thirty-two years and the U.S. Senate elections in 1980 to
observe the effects of party competition in the South.
Southern presidential support has contributed heavily to
Republican control of the presidency in recent times, and
the 1980 Senate elections resulted in Republican control of
that chamber for the period 1981-1986.
There is no question that the Southern "Grand Old
Party" (GOP) has become a significant part of the Southern
political landscape. The breakdown of Democratic party
dominance and Republican party development in the South are
well documented (Black and Black 1987; Cosman 1966; Phillips
1969; Scher 1992; Swansbrough and Brodsky 1988).4
Republicans have made their most dramatic gains at the
presidential level (Black and Black 1987; Scher 1992;
Seagull 1975). Without Jimmy Carter's showing in 1976,
Democratic presidential candidates carried only two Southern
states since 1964. Based primarily on presidential

3
elections, the common perception is that the South has
developed a strong and competitive Republican party or even
is challenging the Democrats as the dominant party. Based
on some "conventional wisdom" about the rise of two-party
politics in the South, it would appear that the region
should have a much stronger Republican party than it does.
In-migration, industrialization, urbanization, rising levels
of income and education, and conservative political
attitudes all suggest that Republicans should be very strong
and a competitive political force at all levels of elective
office. Close examination and analysis of Southern voting
behavior reveals otherwise. Across all electoral levels
Republican successes are less impressive.
The GOP has had tremendous difficulty in making
significant inroads into the Southern electorate at levels
below the presidency, particularly at the state and local
level (Black and Black 1987; Canon and Sousa 1988; Scher
1992; Heyman and Scher 1988).5 In some states Republican
development appears to be stagnant, or even eroding (Heyman
1985). Viewing Southern Republicanism, not from a
standpoint of what has been accomplished but from another
point of view, the most interesting guestion becomes: Why
have Republicans not done better? Given the supposed
ideological compatibility between the new, national
Republican party and "Southerners," why has the region not

proven to be more fertile territory for the GOP and its
candidates than it has been?6
4
Optimistic statements and outright predictions of a
fully competitive two-party political system in the South
have appeared regularly since the Deep South voted
Republican in the 1964 presidential election.7 The Rim
South continued to give its votes to the Democratic
candidate, but the GOP received a high proportion of the
total votes regionwide.8 Nearly overnight, predictions of a
two-party system were widespread. The Republican
presidential candidate has received more votes than the
Democratic candidate in each election since 1968 except in
1976. The American Independent Party of George Wallace won
the Deep South, except South Carolina, and Arkansas in
1968.9 Republican presidential nominees were leading the
way and clearing the path for Republican development in the
South. Dwight Eisenhower was a national military hero whom
many Southerners were very comfortable supporting. His
candidacy provided legitimacy for Southerners to vote
Republican. The "Southern strategies" of Barry Goldwater in
1964 and Richard Nixon in 1968 and 1972 established
presidential Republicanism in the South.10 The national
Democratic Party provided little interference and even
encouragement by the continued nomination of liberal
presidential candidates. Southern presidential
Republicanism had been a growing electoral phenomenon since

5
1952, and Republican dominance has been established since
1972—so why has Republicanism not developed in a comparable
manner at other levels of government?
The period 1960-1972 found the Democratic party in the
South in disarray over the civil rights issue and
Republicans riding the crest of the Southern revolt against
the civil rights stance of the national Democratic party.
The collapse of the rationale for the one-party Democratic
South brought about a surge in Republican activity in the
region. Republican candidates for the U.S. Senate and House
met with early success. For example, in 1962 veteran
Alabama U.S. Senator Lister Hill barely won reelection over
Republican James D. Martin; Florida elected two Republican
U.S. Representatives out of twelve; South Carolina gave over
40 percent of its popular vote to a Republican candidate for
the U.S. Senate for the first time since Reconstruction;
Texas elected a second Republican Representative, after
electing Republican John Tower to the U.S. Senate the
previous year; and Tennessee elected Republicans in three of
its nine congressional districts. In all, 11 of
105 Southern U.S. Representatives were Republican in the
88th Congress, the highest since the 1870s. By 1972,
Republicans represented 32 percent of the Southern
congressional delegation.11
Thus, by the late 1960s and early 1970s, Republicans
in the South seemed to be "taking off." Partisan

6
self-identification did not jump dramatically in favor of
the GOP; rather, many Southerners identified as Independent
(Swansbrough and Brodsky 1988). Nevertheless, Republican
candidates were entering an increasing number of races
across electoral levels and receiving a larger proportion of
the votes (Heyman and Scher 1988). But the early "promise"
of Southern Republicanism seems not to have been fully
realized. Movement toward a fully competitive party often
appears to have stopped, or at the most to be moving at
glacial speed. Certainly, presidential Republicanism is
established. It is at the levels of office below the
presidency where the GOP meets the greatest resistance.
Some evidence indicates the Southern GOP is much like
the dog that chases trucks. It grows to the point of being
able to catch the trucks, but often seems befuddled as to
what to do once the truck is caught. For example, Florida
Republicans were able to elect Claude Kirk governor in 1966.
He was unable to get elected to a second term. It was
twenty years before Florida would elect another Republican
governor, and he, too, was turned out of office after a
single term. Georgia Republican gubernatorial candidate
Howard Callaway received a plurality of approximately
47 percent in the 1966 election. Twenty-six years later,
Georgians are yet to elect a Republican governor. Five
incumbent Southern Republican governors were defeated in
reelection attempts since 1968. Four were turned out of

7
office after one term. If the GOP can solve the problem of
reelecting their governors, the party will be in a stronger
position to make additional gains in state and local
contests (Black and Black 1987). Four additional
U.S. Senate seats were won by Southern Republicans in 1980;
each lost in a first attempt at reelection. Southern
Republicans have found it is not easy for a developing party
to win elections in a traditionally Democratic region with
many powerful incumbents in office. In addition, the
enfranchisement of black Southerners, who have cast their
political lot with the Democrats, helps to keep the
Democratic party hold on most elective offices secure.
The result of competing in such a political environment
with a top-down development strategy has left Southern
Republicans with few offices and even fewer experienced
candidates prepared to run for higher office (Aistrup 1989).
Republicans do not hold a majority of any Southern
legislature, and the very low number of state constitutional
offices below that of governor held by Republicans is well
documented (Sturrock 1988b). The top-down approach has
created problems for the GOP. Most resources have been
concentrated at the high electoral levels. Southern
Republicans have had difficulty recruiting candidates strong
enough to defeat incumbent Democrats, except under unusual
circumstances. Aistrup (1989) found the top-down approach
creates an unbalanced party development which encourages

8
ticket splitting. Democrats are easy winners at the lower
levels when there is no GOP candidate, an inexperienced
candidate, or even an experienced candidate with no party
support. While the GOP is winning at the highest level, the
top-down strategy and ticket splitting allows the Democratic
base to remain strong while the Republicans are left without
experienced candidates ready and qualified to challenge for
higher office. This is a critical point for Republican
party development. The GOP cannot expect to become fully
competitive without contesting elections at all levels of
office with a candidate who has a reasonable chance of
winning. The party has been unable to surmount some
barriers, certain constraints, which are precluding growth
to a full potential.
Alexander P. Lamis (1984), in a state-by-state analysis
in the V. 0. Key tradition, attributes Republicans' early
successes to the negative reaction of Southern whites to the
liberal civil rights stance of the national Democratic
party. Later successes were the result of Southern whites'
acceptance of the "Southern strategies" of GOP presidential
nominees which were packaged as a hands-off approach to
governing the nation and, specifically, the South (1984).
Lamis documents how skillful Southern Democratic leaders
forged "night-and-day" coalitions between increasingly
mobilized Southern blacks and moderate whites allowing
Southern Democrats to win electoral contests without a

9
majority of white votes. Lamis records the successes and
failures of the combination of a traditional Democratic vote
and a mobilized and stable black Democratic vote.
Lamis sees continuing GOP development and competition
extending to all levels of electoral office. Nevertheless,
the extent of Republican growth is dependent on the success
of a fragile black/white Democratic voting coalition which
serves as a powerful constraint to Republican expansion and
plays an integral role in continued Democratic dominance of
Southern politics (1984).
Earl and Merle Black (1987), writing of Southern
politics in a broad manner, concluded presidential elections
in the South were the Republicans' to lose. The Southern
GOP presidential base is sufficient to win the South for the
GOP. Nevertheless, Black and Black determined the GOP faces
much greater obstacles in races below the presidency. The
effects of national candidates, issues, and events diminish
at levels below the presidency, and overwhelming traditional
Democratic partisan identification has been the principal
barrier to GOP success in state level races, particularly in
the Deep South.
The Southern GOP lacks a large traditional base, and
Conservative Republican candidates win most often when they
are able to combine the Republican base with sufficient
numbers of conservative Democrats. All too often the
Republican party is unable to lure a sufficient number of

10
Democrats to ensure victory.12 When the traditional
Democratic vote remains united with the black vote,
Republicans find it a difficult task to draw a majority of
white voters to overcome the coalition.
Black and Black find the black population "tangential"
to the determination of Southern politics. They see a
declining role for the black belt amidst a growing white
middle class which will dictate the direction of politics in
the South. Black voters have limited leverage because of
their numbers and will influence elections and policy only
as part of a black/white Democratic voting coalition (1987).
Tradition and race are not the only obstacles to
Republican development found by Black and Black, however;
strong Democratic incumbents and the perceived leadership
and personal qualities of the candidates are detrimental to
a minority party. In the Deep South even the most serious
Republican candidates need Democratic party disarray and
short-term advantages to secure victories (1987). Black and
Black's findings indicate traditional Democratic dominance
of statewide elections has vanished, but a fully competitive
political system across all levels of office has not yet
been realized, and serious obstacles to Republican
development remain (1987).
Richard K. Scher (1992), like Black and Black (1987),
takes a broad view of the Southern political environment.
Emphasizing political organization, processes, and

11
institutions, Scher devotes much of his research to party
politics, the rise of Southern Republicanism, and the entry
of blacks into the electorate. The data presented indicate
a Democratic party that is weak at the presidential level,
but still in control of state-level politics. Scher finds a
growing Republican presence and competitiveness in races for
U.S. Senate, House of Representatives, and gubernatorial
office, but cautions that continuing GOP development is
contingent upon the South's developing service economy, the
growth of the suburban middle class, in-migration of a
population not tied to Southern Democracy, and the
Democratic reaction to the Republican threat (1992).
Prospects for local Republican growth appear limited by
Democratic-controlled legislative apportionment, local
tradition, and political culture which discourage switches
to the Republican party, and a lack of strong Republican
candidates for the state legislature (Scher 1992). Scher
finds Southern Democrats capable of holding onto power
through invigorated party organizations that draw on deep
pools of talent for candidates who can appeal to a broad
range of Southern interests and are capable of building
electoral coalitions across racial, class, and sectional
lines. Scher concludes that while the Democratic party is
weak at the presidential level, it is strong, competitive,
and still in control of most aspects of Southern politics at
the state level. While the Republican party "has taken up

permanent residence in the South," the Democrats are not
about to hand over the reins of government (1992).
12
Evidence of a constrained Southern Republican party is
indicated. This research is concerned with the question of
constraints on Republican attempts to establish its party
institution in the South. What are the barriers to Southern
Republican development? What constraints are limiting
Republican growth? How strong are these constraints, as a
group and individually? What must Southern Republicans do
to overcome these limitations on development? Southern
political behavior suggests some theoretical suppositions
which are developed and tested as a part of the
dissertation.
Much of the past research has approached the South
through a detailed state-by-state analysis. Emphasis has
been placed on party organization, personalities, voting
behavior, and levels of partisanship (Bass and DeVries 1976;
Havard 1972; Key 1949; Lamis 1984; Peirce 1974; Swansbrough
and Brodsky 1988). More recent studies have "painted with a
broader brush" including historical analysis, indepth
discussion of civil rights, and the utilization of several
methods of analysis including aggregate and individual level
data (Black and Black 1987; Scher 1992).
My research utilizes historical analysis of Southern
voting behavior to develop theoretical suppositions which
are tested by a regression analysis technique. This

13
research approaches the South not as a monolithic region,
but as two subregions distinct in many ways, but also having
overlapping characteristics as a part of the whole.
Comparisons between the Deep South states and the Rim South
States are informative and made wherever possible.
Constraints on Republican growth are found to be
strongest in the Deep South. Because of limited time,
resources, and availability of data, statistical analysis is
performed on data from the Deep South states only. Using
aggregate data measured at the congressional district level
precludes judgments of change at the individual level.
Nevertheless, district-level data by state allow the
analysis of changes over time among states and between the
subregions of the South. Specific discussion of methodology
is included in chapter 6.
Chapter 2 provides a chronicle of the development of a
one-party system, the decline of Democratic party political
hegemony in the "Solid South," and the early development of
the Southern Republican parties. Chapter 3 examines the
rise of presidential Republicanism and its acceptance.
Chapter 4 reviews Southern voting behavior at levels below
the presidency, with particular attention given to elements
of constraint of party campaigns, vote-gaining ability, and
the winning of elections. The relative positions of the two
parties during the 1900s is examined in chapter 4. The
first four chapters provide the foundation and framework

14
for developing the hypotheses. Chapters 5 and 6 are devoted
to developing and testing hypotheses of constraints to
Southern Republican development.
Notes
'A few of the major studies are Key (1949), Heard
(1952), Cosman (1966), Matthews and Prothro (1966), Havard
(1972), Tindell (1972), Peirce (1974), Bartley and Graham
(1975), Bass and DeVries (1976), Lamis (1984), Black and
Black (1987), and Scher (1992).
2Several authors were leaders in describing the changes
taking place in the South, but the early writings had some
difficulty estimating the extent and complete path of the
civil rights movement and rise of Southern Republicans. See
Matthews and Prothro (1966) and Allen P. Sindler, ed.,
Change in the Contemporary South (Durham, NC: Duke
University Press, 1963).
3Key (1949) provides the most complete analysis of the
one-party system through the 1940s.
4For different views of the development of the
Republican party in the South, see Lamis (1984), Black and
Black (1987), and Scher (1992).
sFor a detailed insight into Republican strength at the
lower levels of electoral office, see Sturrock (1988b).
6Lamis (1984) places a strong emphasis on the deterrent
role played by a black/white Democratic voting coalition in
Southern elections.
7The Deep South is defined as Alabama, Georgia,
Louisiana, Mississippi, and South Carolina. The Rim South
states are Arkansas, Florida, North Carolina, Tennessee,
Texas, and Virginia. Republicanism is used in this research
as a convenient term to define the presence and measurement
of the level of Republican candidates, votes, and
officeholders.
8Cosman (1966) is a fine study of the difference
between the Deep South and the Rim South in the 1964
presidential election.

15
9Strom Thurmond's campaign for Nixon denied a South
Carolina win for Wallace. Nixon won five Rim South states.
Humphrey carried Texas.
10See Scher (1992 chapters 3 and 4) for a historical
description of "Southern strategies" used prior to and after
1964 .
"See Bass and DeVries (1976) for a state-by-state study
of Southern politics between 1945 and 1974. The work by
Lamis (1984) is an exceptionally revealing state-by-state
study for the 1960s and 1970s.
12See the 1986 U.S. Senate elections results in Alabama,
Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina as examples of
Republican incumbents facing a unified Democratic vote.

CHAPTER 2
SOUTHERN REPUBLICANISM AND INTERPARTY
COMPETITION: AN HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE
A One-Party South
The dominant feature of Southern politics was the
one-party political system. Single-party politics was the
foundation and strength of the "Solid South." This section
examines the origins of the one-party system and the
Democratic party's struggle to maintain the near-partisan
monopoly and political leadership role it enjoyed between
1896 and 1948 (Key 1949). The Democratic party's position
was so pervasive and overwhelming that the former
Confederate states, except Tennessee, cast their votes in
the Democratic column in every presidential election between
1900 and 1948 except 1928.1 In the 1928 presidential
election, five Rim South states supported Hoover, while the
five Deep South states and Arkansas solidly supported the
Democratic candidate.2 Not until the 1948 election and the
"Dixiecrat" movement did the Solid South begin to break
down.
The historic alliance between the South and the
Democratic party had its origin in the Civil War, was shaped
during Reconstruction, and developed fully in the decades
16

following Reconstruction. It was more than simply a race
issue or a movement to remove the black vote. It was
equally a struggle to determine which whites would rule.
Bourbon Democrats were quite willing to disenfranchise
poor whites who could be recruited by radical Democrat or
independent agrarian movements opposed to the power
and policies of the black-belt conservatives. Two
events provided the South opportunities to free itself
of the Northern army, carpetbaggers and radical
governments/political movements.
The disputed presidential election of 1876 allowed the
South a chance to choose its own course and lay lasting
foundations in matters of race, politics, economics, and law
for the modern South. Samuel Tilden or Rutherford B. Hayes,
as President, could remove the Northern army and
carpetbaggers. The South, realizing the powerful political
position in which it found itself, wanted more. The South
wanted to share the subsidies, grants, bonds, and
appropriations the national Republican government had been
bestowing on northern enterprise while the South's economic
needs went unaddressed (Woodward 1951, chapter 2). Hayes
and the Republicans were more understanding and more willing
to promise the South greater federal aid. The South gave
its electoral support to Hayes. The alliance between
Southern conservatives and the Republicans lasted less than
two years. Southern congressmen could not deliver control

18
of the House to the Republicans, and soon the Republican
leadership came to believe the costs were too high. The
failure of the Compromise and Southern cooperation with the
national Republicans came about with the wave of agrarian
radicalism in 1878.
Southern agrarian radicals, suffering from depressed
economic conditions and the failure of adequate national
subsidies to materialize, combined their interests and
political clout with western farmers in a temporary alliance
that swept the South out of the control of conservatives.
As the South's alliance with the West developed, the South
began voting for agrarian interests and Southern ideas
regarding money, debts, banks, state bonds, and monopolies
(Woodward 1951, chapter 9).
In the 1878 off-year elections, Hayes failed to win any
of the Southern states he courted. The Republicans began to
withdraw from the spirit of conciliation. Conservative
Southern Democrats, who opposed any movement to the West and
radicalism, sought to gain back their position and influence
by leading the South away from the western alliance and
reestablishing the South's cooperation with the East.
Nevertheless, conservatives did not turn to the national
Republicans, but rather joined with eastern Democrats. The
plan was to keep the South completely under white control.
Northern Democrats might not be the most likely ally, but
they were white and perceived by Southerners as not likely

19
to use government powers to help the Negro as the
Republicans had shown they would (Strong 1963). The
Bourbons prevailed in the struggle to align the South with
perceived interests and conservative Democrats found their
interests were best served in an alliance with the Democrats
of the East. The South remained aligned with eastern
Democrats until the advent of the Populist movement.
During the 1880s Southern conservatives remained
devoted to the northeastern affiliation, but the Southern
radical movement also grew. Southern alliance members won
many high elective positions as Southern Democrats. For a
time winning Southern alliance members operated from within
the Democratic party. By the early 1890s, alliance members
were discontented and disillusioned at their failure to get
Southern Democrats and the national Democratic party to
respond to their demands at the state and national levels
even though radical support had elected Southern governors,
congressmen, and state legislators. "Party unity" was not
working for the alliance and radical Southerners (Woodward
1951, chapter 9).
Radicals ran candidates in the 1892 election in a
third-party movement formed by western alliance members.
The Populist candidates achieved a large degree of success
and were perceived a threat by Southern conservative
Democrats. The Populist national platform called for the
expansion of government—an expansion that would not be

20
beneficial to corporate interests, but rather at the expense
of the big money, landholder, and transportation interests.
The Populist movement was often colorful and popular among
the "common man," but it lacked a strong political power
base at the state and county level (Scher 1992). Bourbon
Democrats were powerful and allied with traditional power
blocks. They were not about to relinquish power to the
radicals. The very existence of a third party was a
challenge to one-party dominance and white solidarity.
Using issues such as the "force bill" conservatives
were able to draw the color line, divide Populists, and
consolidate the white vote. The Bourbons did not allow
Southern whites to forget the Republican association with
the defeat of the Confederacy, the horrors of
Reconstruction, and black rule. No Southern third party
could survive if it were believed to support the force bill,
which would allow greater federal involvement in voter
registration and control of elections. The white and black
factions of the Populist movement disagreed on the
legislation. As the Populists sought to reconcile their
differences, the conservatives exploited the relationship
and fraudulently controlled the black vote (Woodward 1951).
Once the issue of white supremacy was raised, victory for
the conservative Democrats was assured, thus removing the
Populist threat in the election of 1896.

21
The end of Populism was also the end to Republicanism
in the South. With the most serious threat removed,
conservative Democrats became the only instrument of
political activity in the South. Conservative Democrats
maintained their position through party control by a small
number of interests, fanning the fires of the race issue and
limiting the extent of participation in the political
process. After the turn of the century the seniority system
proved to be a valuable tool for maintaining Democratic
dominance in the South.3 The Southern Democratic party was
built by developing vested interests and psychological
loyalties which over the decades generated impressive
mechanisms for self-perpetuation and resistance to change.
The conservatives' strategy served the Democrats well and
secured a one-party system for fifty years. Table 2.1
illustrates the declining Republican vote between 1872 and
1932. Entering the 1900s Southern Republican parties and
the Populists, with some exceptions, had ceased to be
effective competitors for political office. Republican
support in the South was generally limited to blacks and
traditional mountain supporters in North Carolina, eastern
Tennessee, western Virginia, and the Ozarks in Arkansas. Of
course, these parties remained active and Republicans
occasionally won election in parts of the South. Tennessee
elected Republican governors in 1910, 1912, and 1920 (Scher
1992). Virginia elected a Republican to Congress in 1902

22
Table 2.1
The Decline of Republican Competitiveness in
Presidential Elections
Year
1872
(%)
1880
(%)
1900
(%)
1916
(%)
1932
(%)
Deep South
Alabama
53
37
35
22
14
Georgia
45
35
28
7
8
Louisiana
56
37
21
7
7
Mississippi
64
30
10
5
4
South Carolina
76
34
7
2
2
Rim South
Arkansas
52
39
35
29
13
Florida
54
46
19
18
25
North Carolina
57
48
46
42
29
Tennessee
48
44
45
43
33
Texas
41
22
44
17
11
Virginia
51
40
31
32
30
Source: Compiled by the author from Guide to U.S. Elections
(Washington, DC: Congressional Quarterly, Inc., 1975).
Note: Numbers represent percentage of presidential vote.

and 1904. North Carolina continued to give Republican
candidates 40 percent or more of the vote in some
congressional elections (Guide to U.S. Elections 1975).
23
Candidates still appeared under the Populist label,
renegade Democrats ran independent races, and, in the Border
South, Republicans ran and could win high office.
Nevertheless, victories by parties and candidates outside
the established state Democratic parties were rare. The
Democratic party was so dominant that election to office
most often took place in the Democratic primary as there was
no opposition in the general election (Scher 1992,
chapter 5). The Republican party's decline continued
through the first three decades of the twentieth century,
reaching its nadir in the 1930s when only North Carolina,
Tennessee, and Virginia put forth candidates for statewide
office with any regularity. Tennessee elected two
congressmen in 1922 and 1930. North Carolina gave several
Republican congressional candidates 40 percent of the vote.
By that time Republicans, even in the mountain states, often
gained less than 25 percent of the vote for statewide
office. The switch of blacks from supporting Republicans to
supporting Democrats strengthened Democrats even more.
Prior to 1936 an estimated three-guarters of Northern blacks
were Republicans. In 1936 blacks switched parties in such
large numbers that nearly three-quarters of blacks became
Democratic (Strong 1963). The Democratic "Solid South,"

24
which developed between 1870 and 1900 remained intact for
nearly the first half of the century. Southern voters'
loyalty is a reflection of the intense regional commitment
the Southern states have given to the Democratic party.
Table 2.2 indicates the level of Republican activity
and decline in party competition in congressional races
between 1920 and 1928. The difference in level of
competition between the Deep South and the Rim South is
apparent. By 1928 the Republican party was competitive only
in North Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia. The data in
table 2.2 are an aggregate of the congressional elections of
1920, 1922, and 1928, but a breakdown of each election year
indicates the magnitude of the decline of two-party
competitiveness during the period. In 1922 Republicans
competed in 25 percent fewer congressional races than in
1920. In 1928 GOP candidates entered 59 percent fewer races
than in 1920 and 45 percent fewer than in 1922. Democratic
party dominance was secure by the 1930s.
Decline of the Solid South
The intense commitment the South gave to the Democratic
party after Reconstruction and well into the 1900s was
altered during the first half of the twentieth century. The
election of 1948 is often cited as the point at which the
Solid South cracked. The decline of political devotion was
not a 1948 phenomenon. It was the result of a lengthy and

25
Table 2.2
House Seats Contested by Republicans,
1920, 1922, and 1928
Number
Contested
Percentage
Contested
Percent
Receiving
40% +
Deep South
Alabama
19
63
20
Georgia
6
16
3
Louisiana
1
4
0
Mississippi
3
13
0
South Carolina
5
24
0
Rim South
Arkansas
16
76
10
Florida
10
83
8
North Carolina
30
100
53
Tennessee
28
93
37
Texas
36
67
9
Virginia
25
83
33
Source: Computed
by author from
Guide to U.S.
Elections
(Washington, DC:
Congressional
Quarterly, Inc.
, 1975).

26
piecemeal disengagement (Key 1949, chapter 15). With the
national prominence achieved by the Democrats in the 1930s
came new national policy which conflicted with the goals and
influence of Southern officeholders.4 Sectional revolt
within the party took place at the national, state, and
local levels. Southern conservatives found themselves
opposed to New Deal economic policy that expanded national
government authority, and Southerners were uneasy as a part
of a coalition that included labor unions, ethnic
minorities, and the big-city political machines. The
recruitment of blacks as a partner in the New Deal coalition
brought the greatest anxiety to Southerners.
As the national Democratic party committed itself to
the cause of blacks, strong cries by Southerners for
separation from the national Democrats were heard. Militant
black spokesmen and the increasing influence of the black
vote inflamed the racist rhetoric. The establishment of the
Fair Employment Practices Committee in 1941 drew even more
black support for the Democrats. Blacks now were a vital
part of the urban vote in Northern states.
Although Tennessee voted Republican in the 1920
presidential election, the South's first serious break with
the Democratic party came in the 1928 presidential election.
It is difficult to explain the South's desertion in 1928 in
the same terms as its later break with the party. The South
could give less than full support to Democratic candidates

27
under certain severe circumstances, but the issues in
1928—religion and the liquor question—were transient and
not as deeply ingrained as those that separated the South
and the national Democratic party in 1948.
Given the strain placed on Southern voters by Alfred
E. Smith's nomination, it is important to note that the five
Southern states supporting Hoover were Rim South states.5
The Deep South states remained faithful to the Democratic
party. Roosevelt's national popularity, the Depression, and
war all worked to diminish Southern Democrats' willingness
to rebel against the national party. Nevertheless, a series
of events took place between 1936 and 1948 that would drive
a wedge between Democrats and set into motion expressions of
sectional hostility in presidential elections. The removal
of the two-thirds nomination rule, the national convention's
endorsement of Henry A. Wallace for Vice-President, and
Truman's vigorous support for civil rights and Fair Deal
economics struck at the heart of Southerners' greatest
fears—black influence and additional government involvement
in the lives of citizens.
Southern Democrats believed they could bring the
national Democratic party to modify its indifference to
Southern interests by withholding the South's electoral vote
for Truman, a tactic they knew would not have worked against
Roosevelt. The move did not have as its purpose withdrawal
from the Democratic party, but rather it was a scheme to

28
bring the party together on Southern terms (Sindler 1976).
Southern dissents badly miscalculated the political
realities of the time.
The Dixiecrats carried only four Southern states in the
1948 presidential election, all Deep South states. Georgia
remained loyal to the Democrats at the urging of Senator
Richard B. Russell. The 1928 and 1948 presidential
defections were based on different concerns. While the
South was no longer solidly Democratic, after 1948,
Southerners gave a large proportion of their votes to an
independent movement led by a popular Southern Democrat, not
to the Republican candidate. Not until 1952 would
Southerners give a large and stable vote to a presidential
candidate who was not the Democratic party nominee.
General Dwight D. Eisenhower, a national hero, carried
the Rim South states of Florida, Tennessee, Texas, and
Virginia in 1952 and 1956. Louisiana was added in 1956. In
both elections Eisenhower received a higher proportion of
the South's vote than any GOP candidate since 1900.6 The
Eisenhower candidacy gave the Southern Republican party the
first substantial and stable vote given by Southerners to a
presidential candidate outside the Democratic party (Seagull
1975; Strong 1960). The black vote, some of which returned
to the Republicans in 1956, proved to be less stable than
the white middle-class voters documented by Strong and
Seagull. "Presidential Republicanism" was raised to a new

29
level in 1952. Given the votes denied the Democratic party
in 1948, the 1952 election was a critical point in the early
development of the Southern GOP. Nevertheless, there was no
rush to displace Democrats at levels below the Presidency.7
Entering the 1960s Democrats held all of the Southern
U.S. Senate seats, 93 percent of the House seats, 96 percent
of the state legislative seats, and all statewide offices
below that of Governor. Democrats held the Governor's
office in each Southern state between 1925 and 1961 (Lamis
1984). The Solid South cracked at the presidential level in
1948, but Democratic dominance was declining very slowly.
Democratic fortunes were on the decline at the presidential
level for the decade beginning in 1952, but movement away
from electing Democrats would not come about until the early
1960s. Table 2.3 indicates the decline of party competition
in congressional races between 1948 and 1960. Only in the
Rim South states of Florida, North Carolina, Tennessee, and
Virginia did Republicans contest one-half or more of the
elections during the period.
This study emphasizes voting behavior, but an
additional indication of Democratic decline can be seen in
public opinion surveys. Table 2.4 reflects the party
identification of white Southerners between 1952 and 1960.
Table 2.4 reveals the decline of Southern Democratic
identification among whites. Strong Democrats fell
13 percent over the 1951-1960 period. Total Democratic

30
Table 2.3
House Seats Contested by Republicans, 1948-1960
Number
Contested
Percentage
Contested
Percentage
Receiving
40%+
Deep South
Alabama
11
28.2
0.0
Georgia
2
5.0
50.0
Louisiana
9
28.1
0.0
Mississippi
4
16.0
0.0
South Carolina
10
41.7
0.0
Rim South
Arkansas
7
28.0
14.3
Florida
19
63.3
36.8
North Carolina
39
81.3
43.6
Tennessee
19
51.4
47.4
Texas
18
20.7
16.7
Virginia
27
69.2
55.6
Source: Computed by author from Guide to U.S. Elections
(Washington, DC: Congressional Quarterly, Inc., 1975).

Table 2.4
Party Identification of White Southerners, 1952-1960
Strong
Demo¬
crat
(%)
Weak
Demo¬
crat
(%)
Indepen¬
dent
Democrat
(%)
Pure
Indepen¬
dent
(%)
Indepen¬
dent
Repub¬
lican
(%)
Weak
Repub¬
lican
(%)
Strong
Repub¬
lican
(%)
1952
38
40
7
2
3
7
4
1956
33
36
4
6
7
10
6
1960
25
35
4
12
3
10
12
Source: Raymond Wolfinger and Robert A. Arsenau, "Partisan Change in the South,
1952-1976, as published in Political Parties: Development and Decay, edited by Loui
Maisel and Joseph Cooper (Beverly Hills, CA: Sage, 1978).

32
identification fell 21 percent. Republicans did not gain on
a one-for-one basis from the Democrats' loss, but rather
gained about one-half of the amount of decline in Democratic
identification.8
Early Development of Southern Republicanism
Republicans did not become a part of the political
landscape in the 1950s. Republicans have been a part of
Southern politics since the founding of the party in 1854.
The perception that the South has always voted for the
Democratic party is not accurate. There have always been
cracks in the Democratic Solid South. The mountain
residents of southwest Virginia, western North Carolina,
eastern Tennessee, and the Ozarks have been at odds with the
lowland planters since the Civil War and have tended to vote
Republican ever since. Nevertheless, after Reconstruction
Southern Republicans played a minor role in most parts of
the region as the Solid South developed.
By the end of World War II, Republicans could expect to
win no electoral votes, no governor's office, and no
U.S. Senate seats in the South. Tennessee did elect two
Republicans to the House of Representatives between 1946 and
1950 both from traditional mountain Republican districts.
The Republican presidential candidate in 1944, Thomas
E. Dewey, claimed only one-guarter of the South's popular
vote, and support of any substantial strength was confined

33
to the mountain counties of the Rim South states of
Arkansas, North Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, and in the
high-migration counties of South Florida (Bartley and Graham
1975).
V. 0. Key wrote of the Republican party, "It scarcely
deserves the name of party" (1949, p. 277). According to
Key, "Only in North Carolina, Virginia, and Tennessee do the
Republicans approximate the reality of a political party"
(p. 277) . Prior to the 1950s Southern Republicans generally
could be classified as one of the three different types:
"Post Office" or patronage Republicans, mountain
Republicans, or black Republicans. Most Southern Republican
parties were the patronage type, those not interested in
enlarging the party or contesting elections, but who were
more interested in the patronage that would come with a
national Republican victory.
Mountain Republicans' origin can be traced directly to
the Civil War. Mountain people were not the slaveholding
and black-belt dwelling elite. They were the proud and
independent small-farm owners who resented the lowlanders'
"high-hat" attitude and usurpation of the best lands and the
power to govern. The highlander with less fertile lands and
hilly terrain had little use for slave labor and disliked
the lowlanders' pretensions to an aristocratic ancestry.
Nevertheless, most of the yeoman farmers of the uplands
supported the leadership of the minority population in the

34
secession movement. The cleavage of geographically
determined outlook provides the basis for much of the
differences between upland residents' and the conservative
Democrats' views on loyalty to the Union and attachment to
the Republican party.
Mountain Republican support was limited to small areas
of the South, and outside of local elections had limited
influence in the Republican party. These traditional
Republicans provided a small but stable vote for the GOP in
North Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia, but existed in only
a few scattered counties in other Southern states.9
Black Republicans were a remnant of the blacks who
supported the GOP during Reconstruction. In 1910,
80 percent of the nation's black population lived in the
eleven states of the Old Confederacy. By 1960 almost
one-half of American blacks lived outside the South (Steamer
1963). More importantly, from the New Deal to 1956 about
80 percent of the black vote went to Democratic candidates
in presidential elections. Even Eisenhower's reelection in
1956 drew only 36 percent of the black vote. When the black
vote began to take on meaningful proportions, their votes
went to the Democratic candidates for president (Steamer
1963). Blacks have overwhelmingly supported Democrats since
1936 and have been a diminishing proportion in the
Republican party.

35
In the 1940s and 1950s black Republicans were reduced
in numbers, and the mountain Republicans were highly limited
in numbers and geographical location. The Southern
Republican party was in the hands of the patronage
Republicans. The lack of leadership was apparent to
Alexander Heard (1952), who observed: "To a greater or
lesser degree in every Southern state there must be changes
in the high command if the party is to grow" (p. 248).
Earlier, Key (1949) found Southern Republicans not desirous
of office. He wrote that they are sound, honest, reputable
people, who are mostly successful businessmen, but they are
not politicians who build political parties (chapter 13).
Southern Republican leadership developed in the early
1950s.10 Riding General Eisenhower's popularity in the
presidential elections of 1952 and 1956, Republicans
combined their efforts in a serious attempt to capitalize on
the South's dissatisfaction with the national Democratic
party and expand the size of the Republican following.
Business and professional people who migrated to the South
as part of the industrialization and economic expansion
after World War II provided leadership. They were joined by
urban and suburban middle-class migrants from small towns
who had developed negative attitudes toward social programs
and government taxing and spending. Young executives and
professionals attracted to the national Republican party's
pledge of fiscal conservatism and limited government played

36
a pivotal role. Other groups, including reformers
interested in building a two-party system and in ideologies
which were conservative on racial and economic issues,
joined the movement (Bass and DeVries 1976; Peirce 197 2;
Seagull 1975).
Prior to the 1950s, Southerners often expressed their
disenchantment with the Democratic party by supporting
independent Democratic movements and candidates or
uncommitted electors. There was little increase in partisan
identification or electoral support for Republicans (Bass
and DeVries 1976) . Eisenhower's candidacy was the first
major breakthrough for Republicans interested in building an
expanded party; but even this national hero, who might have
run for president as either a Democrat or Republican,
carried four Rim South states in 1952 while failing to win
any Deep South state. Eisenhower won four Rim South states
again in 1956 and he also carried the Deep South state of
Louisiana. Development of a competitive Republican party
has its roots in the 1950s and in presidential politics.
(See table 2.5.)
The 1952 and 1960 elections demonstrated the staying
power of the newly found Southern support. In 1960 the
Republican presidential candidate carried three Rim South
states, but was unable to win a single Deep South state. If
"Presidential Republicanism" was a reliable indicator of GOP
development, Republican stock was certainly on the rise.

37
Table 2.5
Republican Presidential Vote, 1940-1960
1940
1944
1948
1952
1956
1960
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
Deep South
Alabama
14
18
19
35
39
42
Georgia
15
18
18
30
33
37
Mississippi
4
6
3
40
25
25
South Carolina
4
5
4
49
25
49
Louisiana
14
18
19
47
53
29
Rim South
Arkansas
21
30
21
44
46
43
Florida
26
30
34
55
57
52
North Carolina
26
33
33
46
49
48
Tennessee
32
39
37
50
49
53
Texas
19
17
24
53
55
49
Virginia
32
37
41
56
55
52
Source: Compiled by author from Guide to U.S. Elections
(Washington, DC: Congressional Quarterly, Inc., 1975).

38
Nevertheless, other signs pointed to a much less potent
second Southern party than that indicated by the
presidential vote. The tremendous rise in Southern support
for GOP presidential candidates was not accompanied by
corresponding success of Republican candidates for offices
below the presidential level. Development had been top down
with state and local offices the most elusive, many because
Republicans failed to contest the seats.
Table 2.6 indicates the Ranney Scale scores for the
Southern States, 1946-1963." The scores show the slowness
of change in interparty competition despite the rise of
support for Republican presidential candidates. Ranney
characterized states with scores of .900 or more as
Democratic one-party states, those between .700 and .900 as
modified one-party states, and those between .300 and .700
as two-party states (Ranney 1971). No Southern state
attained two-party status. Only North Carolina, Tennessee,
and Virginia could be classified as modified one-party
states. All the Deep South states and one-half of the Rim
South states were Democratic one-party states.
While presidential Republicanism was playing a
major role in Southern politics, the acceptance and
institutionalization of Republicans was yet to arrive. At
this point in time presidential Republicanism had not led
to two-party competition in the Southern states. The

39
Table 2.6
Levels of Interparty Competition in Southern
States, 1946-1963
State
Ranney Score
Deep South
Alabama
.957
Georgia
.992
Louisiana
.987
Mississippi
.981
South Carolina
1.000
Rim South
Arkansas
.943
Florida
.922
North Carolina
.879
Tennessee
.872
Texas
.959
Virginia
. 880
Source: Adapted from Jack Bass and Walter
DeVries, The Transformation of Southern Politics
(New York: Basic Books, 1976, p. 511, table E-l).

next two chapters discuss the institutionalization of
Republicanism at all levels of electoral office.
40
Notes
'Tennessee voted a majority for the Republican
presidential nominee in 1920.
2The 1928 presidential election provides an example of
the voting behavior divergence between the Deep and Rim
South states. The 1948 and 1964 presidential elections are
more recent examples.
3Reelection of Southern incumbents placed Southerners
in leadership positions in the House and Senate. By the
1930s Southern representatives and senators had sufficient
seniority to acquire leadership positions and exercise a
large degree of influence on proposed legislation and the
resulting public policy. Scher (1992) reports that
Southerners held 65 percent of major senate chairmanships
and 60 percent of the major chairs in the House by 1960.
Incumbent Southerners holding influential congressional
positions were virtually assured of reelection and often ran
unchallenged.
President Franklin D. Roosevelt personally intervened
in Southern elections in an attempt to replace conservative
senators who opposed the policies of his administration.
5Florida, North Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and
Virginia gave Hoover a majority of votes.
6Eisenhower was the first Republican presidential
nominee to receive over 40 percent of Southern votes in the
twentieth century.
7See Black and Black (1987), Sturrock (1988b), and
Scher (1992).
8See Steven E. Finkel and Howard A. Scarrow, "Party
Identification and Party Enrollment: The Difference and
Consequence," Journal of Politics, vol. 47 no. 2 (1985),
p. 642 for exit polls taken in 1982 indicating the
reluctance of Southerners to self-identify as Republican and
the large proportion of Southerners identifying as
independent. More recent partisan identification surveys
can be found in Swansbrough and Brodsky (1988).

41
’Winston County, Alabama, is perhaps the most well
known because of its attempt to withdraw from the state in
protest over Alabama's secession prior to the Civil War.
Fannin County in north Georgia has strongly supported
Republican candidates since the 1860s.
10For a fine indepth study of Southern Republican party
organizational development, see Joseph A. Aistrup, The
Southern Strategy and the Development of the Southern
Republican Parties (Ann Arbor, MI: University Microfilms,
1989).
"Austin Ranney (1965) measured interparty competition
among the states by averaging (1) the mean percentage of the
two-party vote for governor cast for the Democratic
candidate, (2) the average percentage of seats in the state
senate held by Democrats, (3) the average percentage of
seats in the state House of Representatives held by
Democrats, and (4) the percentage of terms for governor,
state senator, and state representative held by Democrats.
The scores varied from .000, perfect Republican domination,
to 1.000, absolute Democratic domination. Perfect
competition would be .500. A Ranney score of .900 or more
indicates a one-party Democratic state. States with scores
between .700 and .900 are classified modified one-party and
states with scores between .300 and .700 are classified
two-party states.

CHAPTER 3
SOUTHERN ACCEPTANCE OF REPUBLICANISM:
PRESIDENTIAL REPUBLICANISM
From 1932 to 1944 all of the Southern states voted
Democratic majorities in each presidential, senatorial, and
gubernatorial election. Prior to 1936, approximately
three-quarters of Northern blacks were Republican. Partisan
change came quickly for blacks. From the latter years of
the New Deal to 1956 about 80 percent of the black vote went
to Democratic presidential candidates (Steamer 1963). The
movement of Southern whites from Democratic allegiance to
acceptance of Republican candidates came about much more
slowly.
It is the view of this research that the transformation
of Southerners from Democratic partisanship to a level of
acceptance of Republicanism at the presidential level began
in the early 1950s and was accomplished by the presidential
election of 1972. Acceptance of Republicans came in fits
and starts and over the resistance, and sometimes the help,
of the black-belt voters. It can be shown that the basis
was a persistent and expanding white-collar sector of
Republican support.1 A state-by-state discussion of the
sources of Republican support is a part of this chapter,
42

43
but an overview of the development of Southern Presidential
Republicanism is in order at this point.
Over the 1952-1972 period, Republican development came
about in an irregular pattern. Blacks played a role in the
1950s with limited support of Dwight Eisenhower, a GOP
candidate who gave respectability to the Republican party in
the South. Third-party movements in 1948 and 1968 provided
a transition mechanism making it easier for Southerners to
vote for a candidate outside the Democratic party. The
elections of 1948, 1964, and 1968 also provide an indication
of the political differences between the Deep South and the
Rim South. Strom Thurmond's States' Rights party carried
four Deep South states in 1948, and George Wallace's
American Independent party won four Deep South states and a
single Rim South state—Arkansas—in 1968. Barry Goldwater
won all five Deep South states in 1964. None of the three
candidates carried a border South state except Arkansas in
1968. The Rim South voted Democratic in 1948 and 1964 and
Republican in 1968 except for Arkansas and Texas. Southern
presidential Republicanism was established in the 1972
election of Richard Nixon, who carried the entire region by
a substantial margin.
A stable underlying urban middle-class Republican
presidential vote persisted over the entire period and has
been well documented by Donald Strong (1960) and Louis
Seagull (1975). More recently, Black and Black (1987) found

44
the urban, white middle-class support of Southern
Republicanism has grown rapidly since the 1950s and 1960s
and today forms the backbone of the Southern GOP. They also
present evidence of GOP presidential support spreading to
the middle class of smaller towns, but are not as optimistic
about Republican electoral fortunes at the state and local
level.
Through the 1944 elections Democratic presidential
candidates received overwhelming Southern support. Southern
alienation from the national Democratic party came only
after a prolonged estrangement, a conservative congressional
alliance with Republicans, and many political crises
(Steamer 1963). Southerners perceived these crises had
their origins at the highest level of government and within
the Democratic party.
The Roosevelt administration supported economic
measures that Southerners believed were government intrusion
in private affairs and made some efforts to achieve civil
rights for blacks. Nevertheless, Roosevelt was not
motivated by civil rights issues. The President's wife was
an outspoken advocate of civil rights, and Roosevelt issued
bans on discrimination in defense-related industries and
established a Fair Employment Practices Commission.
Roosevelt's civil rights policies were limited. They did
not ban racial discrimination in federal agencies or the
armed forces (Scher 1992) .

45
The President personally campaigned against
conservative Democratic senators in an attempt to purge the
party of those opposed to his policies. Roosevelt's
nationwide personal popularity held the South in the
Democratic party. The President could win without the
South, and he openly sought black support. The ideological
line established by the New Deal was continued by Harry
Truman's Fair Deal and extensive civil rights programs under
a Truman administration, further alienating Southerners. By
1948 conditions, personalities, and events had changed. The
South was presented with an opportunity for an open break.
However, this did not necessarily mean a move toward
Republicanism. The GOP had taken a civil rights stance
similar to that of the Democrats, and Thomas Dewey held
little attraction to Southerners. Many believed a totally
Southern view was required to satisfy the Southern mood.
When the 1948 Democratic national convention included a
liberal civil rights plank in its platform, delegates from
Mississippi and Alabama walked out. These delegates--party
leaders from Mississippi and South Carolina and conservative
leaders—met in Birmingham in the summer to form the
"States' Rights Democrats." Governor J. Strom Thurmond of
South Carolina was nominated as an alternative to the
"regular Democrats'" nominee, Harry Truman.
Thurmond carried the Deep South states Alabama,
Louisiana, Mississippi, and South Carolina.2 Georgia

46
remained with Truman at the urging of Senator Richard
B. Russell. The States' Rights party or "Dixiecrats," as
they became known, had little appeal in the Border South
where no state vote exceeded 17 percent.
Southern Republicans benefitted indirectly from the
Dixiecrat movement. Southern Democrats were divided; but
there was no reason to believe States' Righters would become
Republicans overnight or across all electoral levels. After
all, Thurmond won only in the states where the States'
Rights Democrats displaced the regular Democrats' position
on the ballot.
Third-party movements and independent elector slates
played a significant role in the development and acceptance
of Republicanism in the Deep South and a lesser role in the
Rim South. Where third parties were not present in
elections between 1948 and 1968, there was a large increase
in the Republican proportion of the vote. Third-party
activity contributed to the instability of the Southern
Republican vote during the party's development and made
evident the ambivalence with which Southerners accepted
presidential Republicanism (Seagull 1975).
The first presidential election in the 1950s revealed
the willingness of Southerners to support Republican
presidential nominees. Four Rim South states gave a
majority of the two-party vote to the Republican
presidential candidate in 1952. Florida, Tennessee, Texas,

47
and Virginia were joined in the Republican column in 1956 by
Louisiana. Eisenhower received a remarkable 48 percent of
the region's popular vote in both elections.
The GOP's strongest support came not from the voters
who supported Thurmond in 1948, but from the peripheral
Southern states. There was also a difference within states.
Thurmond did best in the black-belt counties, whereas
Eisenhower was strongest in the mountain counties and the
largest urban areas (Strong 1960).
In 1956 each of the eleven Southern states' Republican
percentage of the vote in metropolitan counties exceeded the
total percentage of all the remaining counties (Strong
1960) .3
The Southern urban support of Eisenhower was the
beginning of a stable and substantial presidential
Republican vote outside the traditional mountain
Republicans.4 The gains came disproportionally from higher
socioeconomic status voters (Seagull 1975; Strong 1960).
More importantly, the upsurge in Southern support for
Republican presidential nominees was not accompanied by
corresponding victories of Republican candidates for state
and local offices. Few Southern state and local offices
were contested by the GOP. Republican gains were clearly a
presidential phenomenon, although not entirely "a vote for
the man."

48
The Eisenhower vote was not random. A vote for the man
would have shown Eisenhower doing equally well in the
cities, suburbs, and farms, and across social and income
levels. Randomness of support did not exist (Strong 1960;
1963). Although Eisenhower did receive support in the
metropolitan areas, black-belt counties and traditional
Republican regions, Southern presidential Republicanism was
primarily an urban white-collar movement in 1952 (Seagull
1975). Louis Harris (1954) found Eisenhower to be more
popular among the white-collar class than any other group in
the country. Southern urban voters behaved much like their
Northern counterparts in the elections of 1952 and 1956
(Strong 1963). This is important because the newly found
white-collar segment of the Southern GOP vote became the
most stable component of support for the Republican party.
Lingering notions of the Republican vote being simply a
vote for a man were dismissed in the 1960 elections when
Richard M. Nixon received only 2 to 3 percent less than the
votes received by Eisenhower in each of the two previous
elections. Republicans were benefitting from the urban
growth and economic development of the South (Seagull 1975;
Strong 1960). Nixon's support came in a large degree from
the upper-income-level voters of the metropolitan areas, a
vote very similar to that received by Eisenhower (Strong
1963).5 The Nixon vote gave every indication that
presidential Republicanism was not transient, but stable,

49
enduring, and not built around a single candidate or
personality. The 1960 presidential election served to show
Southern Republicans how important the South's votes had
become. Eisenhower could win outside the South but the 1960
race was close enough to emphasize the importance of the
Southern states to both parties. During the Eisenhower
years, the Supreme Court handed down the Brown decision and
the President enforced it in Little Rock. Southerners
instinctively looked to the Democratic party for relief.
Neither John F. Kennedy nor Nixon made a racial appeal.
Nixon was no Eisenhower to Southerners, but, rather, he was
not widely known. Kennedy appealed to Southerners' strong
military tradition and he selected Senator Lyndon B. Johnson
of Texas as his running mate. Kennedy won in 1960, but
Nixon received 47 percent of the Southern vote and actually
won a majority of the popular votes in the Rim South. The
growth of presidential Republicanism in the 1950s and early
1960s brought a surge of citizen participation in Republican
party organizations and several changes in leadership. The
moderate leadership attracted to the party with the
Eisenhower candidacy replaced the post-office Republicans,
but with the election of John F. Kennedy in 1960 were
themselves pushed aside by the right-wing activists
supporting the conservative positions of Senator Barry
Goldwater. The activism of the early 1960s also brought a
spurt of Republican grassroots activity.

50
In 1961 John Tower of Texas was elected to a U.S.
Senate seat.6 Republicans contested two congressional seats
in special elections in Texas. Conner Harrington received
11 percent of the vote in the 4th District and Joe Meirsner
received 25 percent in the 13th District, which included San
Antonio. Republican candidate Charlton Lyons received
46 percent of the vote in the 4th congressional district
race in Louisiana. In the 1962 congressional elections the
GOP contested fifty-six House seats, fourteen more than in
1960. Republican candidates won eleven districts, including
seven incumbent seats and one additional seat in Texas,
Florida, North Carolina, and Tennessee. In two
congressional races in Virginia and one in Tennessee GOP
candidates polled 49 percent of the vote. The GOP run at a
U.S. Senate seat in Alabama was nearly successful when James
Martin polled 49.1 percent of the vote against incumbent
Lister Hill (Strong 1963) .
At the local level Republicans ran for Mayor of
Meridian, Mississippi, in 1961 and New Orleans in 1962,
receiving 28 and 20 percent of the vote, respectively.
Lowndes County, Mississippi, elected a Republican to the
post of public prosecutor, the first GOP officeholder in
Mississippi in the century, and two Republicans were elected
to the City Council of Atlanta, Georgia. Mobile, Alabama,
elected a Republican Mayor in October 1961 (Strong 1963) .
While the Rim South gave Eisenhower and Nixon majority votes

51
and grassroots activity was on the rise, the GOP was unable
to crack the Deep South even at the presidential level,
except for Louisiana in 1956. This would change in 1964.
In 1964 the five Deep South states gave their votes to
a Republican presidential candidate for the first time since
Reconstruction. Senator Goldwater won only the five Deep
South states and his home state of Arizona. The 1964
presidential campaign brought with it a Republican "Southern
strategy" that can be used to distinguish differences
between the Rim and Deep South states. The Goldwater
Southern strategy was born in Atlanta in a 1961 speech.7
Dismissing the GOP's chances of drawing a large share of the
black vote the Republican nominee appealed to Southern
whites' opposition to the liberal policies of the Kennedy
and Johnson administrations. Goldwater's position on
domestic issues was similar to John C. Calhoun's states'
rights position which argued that too much power and
authority had been centralized in the federal government
(Scher 1992). A Goldwater presidency would leave the
enforcement of integration up to the states. Goldwater had
voted against the 1964 Civil Rights Act. His reward was the
electoral votes of the Deep South states. He was the first
Republican to carry these most Southern states. Goldwater's
vote was not dependent on traditional Republicans or the new
urban GOP supporters, but rather it was similar to the 1948
Thurmond vote. Before 1964 the Republicans drew significant

52
support from blacks. The Goldwater strategy removed any
opportunity of black support. Since 1964 the black vote has
been given almost entirely to Democratic presidential
candidates. Goldwater received 62 percent of the Deep South
vote and 43 percent of the votes from the Rim South states.
The Deep South support for Goldwater was seen by some as a
measure of the depth of support for a separatist racist
policy (Hess and Broder 1967).
After the 1964 election all of the Southern states had
voted Republican in at least one presidential election
except Arkansas and North Carolina. Nevertheless, the South
was not monolithic in voting behavior at the presidential
level. The Rim South and the Deep South supported different
presidential candidates in 1948, 1964, and 1968. Although
Eisenhower was able to carry four Rim South states and Nixon
three, only one Deep South state went for either Republican.
The presidential elections of 1964 and 1968 are
indicators of divergence between the regions of the South.
Barry Goldwater carried the Deep South states in 1964, while
at the same time Republican support in the Rim South
declined dramatically from the levels achieved in 1952-1960
with the Eisenhower and Nixon candidacies. Explanations for
political differences between the regions include race,
urbanization and industrialization, migration,
diversification of agriculture, and a higher level of
traditional loyalty to the Democratic party in the Deep

South (Black and Black 1987; Cosman 1966; Scher 1992;
Seagull 1975).
53
The eleven former Confederate states form a region
defined many years ago when the bonds of common interests
were anchored by the race issue. Even then, however, the
South was not monolithic in political behavior or tradition.
The flat lands of much of the Deep South provided a rural
environment suitable for large single-crop plantations that
required large numbers of slave laborers to plant and
harvest the crop. The hill and mountain lands of the Rim
South were farmed by land owners growing a diversity of
crops on smaller plots of land and using family labor.
Black slave labor was limited and the black population
was a small proportion of the total population in the Rim
South. This was unlike the Deep South, where the black
population grew to majorities in some counties. The large
rural black population of the Deep South was the demographic
basis for one-party politics (Key 1949). Even the Deep
South's largest cities had substantial proportions of blacks
and maintained the traditional attitude on race relations
(Black and Black 1987). The high black rural counties
accounted for no more than 4 percent of the peripheral South
votes in 1980, one-sixth the votes in the high black rural
counties of the Deep South (1987).
A positive relationship between urbanism and interparty
competition has been established (Cartright 1963; Eulau

54
1957). The proposition that urbanism is conducive to
competitive party systems rests comfortably in the
conventional wisdom of political science literature (Key
1949; Patterson and Caldeira 1984; Strong 1960). Key
predicted the development of Southern cities would bring
political change and the result would be a South less
determined to maintain the traditional race relations. Key
argued the socioeconomic diversity in the cities would
encourage political cleavages that would make it difficult
for a single party to dominate politics (1949).
The Rim South has consistently been more urban than the
Deep South (Black and Black 1987). In the 1950s urban
growth was greatest in Texas, Tennessee, Florida, and
Virginia. As of 1980 the South had 45 large metropolitan
areas, two-thirds of which were in the Rim South.
Sixty percent of the Rim South vote comes from urban areas
compared to 44 percent in the Deep South (1987). The
development of metropolitan areas in the Rim South has
encouraged political competition less influenced by a large
black population and a tradition of Democratic party
loyalty.
In-migration that accompanied the urbanization of the
South since World War II has contributed to Republican
development. Most often the migrants were white and middle
class, and many brought Republican attitudes with them.
Many settled in new suburbs outside of the traditional

Southern cities and faced less pressure to develop a
Democratic party tradition (Scher 1992).
A comparison of presidential voting behavior in the
subregions shows clearly the presence of a traditional
Republican support in the Rim South states and just as
clearly the mixed receptions Republican nominees received in
the two regions. (See table 3.1.)
The Rim South states embraced Republican presidential
candidates earlier and to a greater degree than the states
of the Deep South. The Republican vote for the twenty-year
period prior to the Eisenhower years never exceeded
41 percent for any Rim South state. From 1952 until 1960
the mean Rim South Republican vote was 51 percent. In the
Deep South the mean Republican vote from 1940 through 1948
was 12 percent and 37 percent for the years 1952-1960. The
Deep South was much slower in accepting Republicanism, and
only one Deep South state gave a majority of votes to the
GOP nominee between 1940 and 1960. Up to that time both
parties had taken a liberal civil rights stance. (See
table 3.2.)
During the 1952-1972 period Republicans received a
majority of the total vote cast in presidential elections in
the South (Bass and DeVries 1976). Even though Southerners
had broken the habit of supporting Democratic presidential
candidates, Republican partisan identification did not
increase between 1956 and 1972 (Black and Black 1987) nor

Table 3.1
Rim South Republican Presidential Vote, 1940-1988
North
Arkansas
Florida
Carolina
Tennessee
Texas
Virginia
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
1940
21
26
26
32
19
32
1944
30
30
33
39
17
37
1948
21
34
33
37
24
41
1952
44
55
46
50
53
56
1956
46
57
49
55
55
55
1960
43
52
48
53
49
52
1964
43
49
44
45
37
46
1968
29
40
40
39
40
43
1972
69
72
70
68
66
68
1976
35
47
44
43
48
49
1980
48
56
49
49
55
53
1984
61
65
62
58
64
62
1988
56
61
58
58
56
60
Source
: Compiled
bv author from Guide to U.S.
Elections
(Washington, DC:
Congressional Quarterly, Inc., 1975
and 1985).
The 1988
figures
are from
America
Votes,
volume 19,
edited by Richard
M. Scammon
and Alice
V. McGillvroy (Washington,
DC: Congressional
Quarterly, Inc.,
1988).
U1

Table 3.2
Deep South Republican
Presidential
Vote, 1940-1988
Alabama
(%)
Georgia
(%)
Louisiana Mississippi
(%) (%)
South
Carolina
(%)
1940
14
15
14
4
4
1944
18
18
19
6
5
1948
19
18
18
3
4
1952
35
30
47
40
49
1956
39
33
53
25
25
1960
42
37
29
25
49
1964
70
54
57
87
59
1968
14
30
23
14
38
1972
72
75
66
78
71
1976
43
33
46
48
43
1980
49
41
51
49
49
1984
61
60
61
62
64
1988
60
60
55
60
62
Sources: Compiled by author from Guide to U.S.
Congressional Quarterly, Inc., 1975 and 1985).
Votes. volume 19, edited by Richard Scammon and
Congressional Quarterly, Inc., 1988).
Elections (Washington, DC:
The 1988 figures are from America
Alice V. McGillvroy (Washington, DC

58
did Republicans make significant inroads at the state and
local level in the South (Black and Black 1987; Heyman 1985;
Scher 1992). Republican identification declined in 1964 to
nearly one-half of its 1960 level, and would not reach 1960
levels again until 1980, even among white Southerners (Black
and Black 1987). Much of the Republican vote was believed
to be a protest against a national Democratic party too
liberal for Southern interests. The voting behavior of
Southerners in the 1968 presidential election indicates the
uncertainty with which Southerners approach Republicanism.
Southerners chose instead to send a message to both parties
while embracing neither. The message to Democrats was a
protest against the liberal policies and to let the national
party known that other Democrats were ready to step forward
to represent Southern interests. To the Republicans the
message was that Southerners would turn to an acceptable
Democrat to protect their interests before turning to the
Republican party. The South was not to be taken for
granted. Southerners had been supporting Republican
presidential nominees at high levels since 1952, but were
not a reliable part of a Republican voting coalition. The
Wallace vote continued the protest of Southerners aimed at
the national Democratic party. Wallace carried Alabama,
Georgia, Louisiana, and Mississippi in the Deep South and
Arkansas in the Rim South. Richard Nixon won five Rim South
states and received a plurality of the popular vote. The

59
Democrat Hubert Humphrey came in third. As in 1948, Deep
South voters rejected the Democratic party, but were not
ready to substitute the Republican party in its place.
Twice over a sixteen-year period the Deep South states
supported a presidential candidate outside the Democratic
party without turning to the Republicans.
The 1972 election offered no third-party alternative,
and Southerners were content with the Nixon presidency. The
vote decision was not difficult for most Southerners. The
Democrats nominated a Northern liberal, George McGovern, who
failed to be competitive nationwide. Nixon refined the
Southern strategy with the use of code words such as "forced
busing" and "quotas," both of which appealed to Southern
voters who opposed school integration and affirmative
action. Nixon appealed to Southerners in other ways—strong
military, stopping big spending, and the appointment of
strict Constructionists to the Supreme Court (Peirce 1974).
The election of 1972 cannot be a precise measure of
Republican support in the South, but it does indicate the
breadth of Republican acceptance of presidential nominees,
given a clear choice. Both subregions of the South gave
Nixon majorities, the first time a Republican nominee
received majority support of the entire region. Without the
George Wallace option black-belt whites showed increasing
willingness to vote Republican.8

60
The most revealing evidence of Republican development
and acceptance can be found in the research of Louis Seagull
(1975). The next section, a state-by-state examination of
the bases of Southern Republicanism, relies heavily on
Seagull's indepth study of Southern Republicanism. Seagull
argues that a reliable basis for the Republican vote exists
because of realignment of middle-class, white-collar whites
in the South.
Seagull explains the Republican vote as the product of
the contributions of the traditional Republicans, the
white-collar segment, and the black-belt sector.9
Recognizing the South is not monolithic and distinct
geographical and social differences exist in the region,
Seagull categorizes the states in the manner accepted by
many researchers of Southern politics, the Deep South and
the Rim South (Bass and DeVries 1976; Black and Black 1987;
Lamis 1984; Scher 1992; Peirce 1974).
Although a part of the eleven Confederate states often
considered "the South," the Deep South states have
geographical, social, and political characteristics that
differ from those of the Rim South states. The low, flat,
plantation-size farm lands, a large black population, and a
slave labor history contributed heavily to the political
differences between the subregions of the South. One result
was the Democratic "Solid South" with its heart and soul in
the Deep South. Another result was the popular appeal of

61
third-party movements which were successful in attracting
support from the black-belt counties and to a lesser degree
the upland counties. Both the Solid South and third-party
activity reflect the Deep South's attitude on the race
issue.
The reluctance of the Deep South to accept the
political realities of a changing society resulted in an
instability in the voting behavior of Southerners,
particularly in the voters of the black belt. This
instability was accompanied by a growing white-collar sector
which would become the basis of a stable and significant
Republican vote and separate partisans along economic
dimensions. Between 1952 and 1972 the variability in
Republican strength was the result of surge movements, not a
durable shift in the social bases of support. Drawing on
Seagull's research one can explain to a large degree the
dynamics of presidential elections in the South and the
bases of Southern presidential Republicanism on a
state-by-state level.10
The Deep South States
Alabama
The mountain counties of Alabama provided Alabama's
Republican party with a small but stable vote during the
1940s. The changes in Republican support over the
twenty-year period from Eisenhower's first selection through

62
the 1972 election of Nixon were the result of surges and
withdrawals of support in the black-belt and white-collar
sectors.
The first departure from a stable traditional GOP vote
came in 1952 when Eisenhower drew considerable support from
both the white-collar sector and black-belt voters in
addition to the traditional Republican vote. The black-belt
vote was the least stable of the three, and in 1956 the
black-belt counties' contribution declined. The
white-collar sector contribution increased steadily until
1960, and the traditional mountain vote remained relative
stable.
Goldwater's Southern strategy brought a second
discontinuity into Alabama's Republican vote in 1964.
Comparison with the average vote in the state indicates the
white-collar sector and the traditional mountain support
were less influential in the Republican vote than the
black-belt counties. Both the traditional support and the
white-collar vote contributed negatively to the total
Republican vote. Seagull's study (1975) indicates the
importance of race in Alabama's 1964 presidential vote as
well as the 1968 election.
The 1968 election brought yet another severe departure
from previous elections. Nixon's support came almost
exclusively from the traditional and white-collar sectors.
Black-belt voters supported the candidacy of George Wallace.

63
The GOP vote correlated highly with the 1940 vote, although
the white-collar sector contributed significantly in 1968.
The elections between 1948 and 1968 indicate the
reluctance of Alabama voters to give Republicans a large and
stable presidential vote. Given an alternative in 1968,
Alabama voters abandoned the GOP, leaving only a small
traditional vote and the white-collar sector to support
Nixon. This was the pattern throughout the Deep South
states.
Georgia
Georgia's Republican presidential vote was one of the
most stable during the period 1940-1960. Even in 1952 the
GOP vote did not alter severely the 1948 distribution.
Outside of 1952, Georgia and Alabama were the most stable of
the Deep South states. Georgia's stable Republican vote can
be traced to a small traditional vote for the entire
twenty-year period from 1940 to 1960. The traditional
Republican support was joined in 1952 by a white-collar vote
that proved to be very stable. Georgia's white-collar
sector, although a stable part of Republican support, played
a less prominent role than in all the Deep South states
except Louisiana. Between 1940 and 1960 black-belt support
was missing from the traditional Republican and white-collar
voting coalition.

64
Georgia's pattern of stability was disrupted by
Goldwater's 1964 presidential bid. The sources of
instability were the black-belt counties. Black-belt
counties gave their support to a Republican candidate for
the first time in 1964. The effects of race and Goldwater's
Southern strategy were evident, as black-belt voters were
the most prominent segment of Republican support.
Nevertheless, even in the Goldwater landslide, Seagull
(1975) was able to document a small positive contribution
from the white-collar sector. The white-collar sector
played a large and prominent role in the 1968 election as
the black-belt voters withdrew their support to help George
Wallace carry the state. The persistence of the
white-collar sector in 1964 and its prominence in 1968 are
strong indications of the stability of the white-collar vote
and place it squarely at the core of Republican support in
Georgia.
Even with the disruption of the Goldwater vote,
Georgia's Republican vote was one of the most stable of the
Deep South states between 1944 and 1968. The black-belt
counties provided a positive contribution to the GOP only
once during this period. The traditional and white-collar
sectors contributed positively in each election between 1948
and 1968. All of the three voting sectors were inundated by
the huge Nixon win of 1972.

65
Louisiana
Louisiana was the only Deep South state in which the
black belt was a positive contributor to the Republican
presidential vote during the 1940s. Republicanism was used
as an instrument of protest against the national Democratic
party. While the black-belt support proved to be unstable
until 1968, the white-collar sector increased its support
consistently. Even with the large black-belt vote in 1964,
the white-collar contribution was positive and significant.
Black-belt voters left the Republicans to support Wallace in
1968.11 The prominence and importance of the white-collar
vote was evident. The large Nixon win in 1972 overwhelmed
the contribution of the black-belt and the traditional
Republican vote, but the white-collar vote remained positive
although a smaller contribution.
Mississippi
Mississippi's Republican support was entirely dependent
on the traditional Republican sector prior to 1952. In
Mississippi this meant urban Republicans. Traditional
Republicans, black-belt voters, and the white-collar sector
were all strong positive contributors to the GOP vote in the
1952 elections. The black-belt contribution was lost in
1956 to an independent slate of electors. The traditional
Republicans and the white-collar sector remained stable and
positive contributors to Republican presidential candidates

through 1960. The three segments all displayed unstable
patterns of support between 1960 and 1972.
66
The traditional GOP vote provided a minuscule
contribution in the 1964 Republican sweep of the state, and
the white-collar contribution was sharply reduced from the
levels of the 1952-1960 period. Black-belt support was at
its highest level since 1952. Mississippi's GOP vote was
truly unstable and continued to be through 1972. The
traditional Republicans and the white-collar vote again
played a prominent role in the 1968 election, although not
at the levels played in the elections from 1952 through
1960. The traditional vote, the black-belt counties, and
white-collar sector all provided negative contributions to
the state Republican vote in 1972.
South Carolina
South Carolina displayed the least stability of the
Deep South states in Republican presidential voting prior to
1960. Third-party activity explains some of the
instability. Seagull's (1975) computations found little
relationship between the electoral patterns of 1948-1952 and
1952-1956. In 1952 South Carolina could vote for the
Republican candidate on an independent elector slate.
Eisenhower drew a near-majority vote. Traditional
Republicans, the white-collar sector, and the black belt
were all positive contributors to the GOP vote. Yet in 1956

67
black-belt support was a negative contributor to
Eisenhower's reelection. The black-belt counties supported
an independent slate of electors led by Senator Harry
F. Byrd. Byrd was a leader of massive resistance to
integration of schools who drew strong support from rural
whites (Bass and DeVries 1976). The traditional GOP voters
continued to support the Republican nominee in 1956, and the
white-collar voters' contribution was substantial although
less than in 1952.
Instability in the Republican vote was the pattern
again in 1960. Nixon matched the proportion of the vote
received by Eisenhower in 1952 with a high level of support
from the black belt. The white-collar vote was very strong,
but the traditional Republican contribution was a negative
influence on the statewide vote. The black belt continued
to support the Republicans in 1964, but withdrew in 1968 to
vote for the independent candidacy of George Wallace. The
high levels of backing from the white-collar sector
continued in 1964 and 1968, indicating a stable Republican
core of white-collar supporters. The traditional Republican
vote was a negative contributor in each election from 1960
through 1972. Seagull (1975) found evidence of a stable
Republican white-collar vote in South Carolina, unlike other
Deep South states, all of which experienced instability in
the 1964 election.

68
The Rim South States
The Rim South's political distinctiveness has its
origins in geographical and demographical factors.
Traditional mountain Republican support can be traced to
elections prior to the slave issue, the Civil War, and
Reconstruction. Low black population outside the Deep South
states resulted in a populace less susceptible to racially
motivated third-party activity. The Rim South has a larger
traditional Republican population which is more extensively
distributed across the six states. The result is a more
stable Republican vote.
Arkansas
Arkansas's electoral behavior is most like the Deep
South than any of the other Rim South states. The state
gave George Wallace his only Rim South victory in 1968, and
Wallace's vote was higher than in South Carolina, a Deep
South state. Outside of Winthrop Rockefeller's two
elections in the 1960s, Arkansas has elected a Republican
governor for a single two-year term, 1980-1982. Between
1962 and 1988, Arkansas did not elect a Republican senator.
During the 1980-1988 period, Arkansas Republicans failed to
run a candidate for U.S. Senate, House of Representatives,
and Governor more frequently than any Rim South state except
Texas and put up a challenger less often than Mississippi
and South Carolina. Republican candidates for Senate,

69
House, and Governor have won 20 percent of the races
compared to a mean of 38 percent for the Rim South and
28 percent for the Deep South. Arkansas Republicans have
held the least number of state legislative seats of any Rim
South state and less than Georgia and South Carolina in the
Deep South (Scher 1992). Lamis (1984) found Arkansas
exhibited more traditional Democratic party loyalty than any
other Rim South state, and Ranney scales for measuring
interparty competition within states computed by Bibby et
al. (1990) for the 1970s and 1980s show Arkansas most
similar to the Deep South states.12 The traditional
Republican vote is small, but provided stable support from
1944 to 1960. The traditional support declined sharply in
1964, but an increased contribution from the black belt kept
the GOP vote at 43 percent, egual to the vote in 1960. The
black-belt contribution was twice as large in 1964 as its
previous contribution in any election. The Arkansas black
belt remained loyal to Democratic presidential candidates
except in 1968 and contributed to the Republican vote at a
significant level only in 1964. Black-belt support went to
Wallace in 1968, while the white-collar sector stayed with
the Republican.
The white-collar sector in Arkansas displayed an
irregular vote pattern. After contributing substantially to
Eisenhower's win in 1952 and 1956, the white-collar
contribution declined in 1960 as a reaction to Eisenhower's

70
action in Little Rock and in 1964 in response to the
Goldwater candidacy. Significant white-collar support
returned to the Republican column in 1968, but was only a
minimum positive influence in the Nixon win in 1972. The
traditional vote, white-collar sector, and black-belt
support explain little of the large Republican vote in 1972.
Florida
Florida's Republican vote was very stable prior to
1964. Republican presidential candidates received a high
level of very stable support from a small traditional
Republican segment. At that time most GOP support came from
migrants to south Florida (Lamis 1984). The white-collar
sector showed signs of attraction to the GOP as early as
1948, and between 1952 and 1960 contributed significant
support to Republican presidential candidates. Perhaps the
most surprising result of Seagull's (1975) analysis of
Florida was the finding of a substantial GOP vote in the
black-belt counties from 1952 through 1960. The Goldwater
nomination brought great instability to the Republican vote
in 1964.
Florida's Republican vote was the most unstable of the
Rim South states over the three elections between 1964 and
1972. The traditional vote, white-collar sector, and the
black-belt counties made negative contributions to the
Republican vote in 1964. Seagull's (1975) model does not

71
explain the vote, and it appears to be related to the
geographical dispersion of GOP support as it moved from
being disproportionately concentrated in the Southern part
of the state to being disproportionately concentrated in the
less populous counties of north Florida. Florida's GOP vote
and population were positively correlated except in 1964 and
1972 .
The traditional support and white-collar sectors
contributed substantially to the Republican vote in 1968.
Florida and Tennessee were the only two Rim South states
where the black belt made a positive contribution to the
Republican vote in 1968. Nevertheless, Florida's electoral
cleavages in the elections of 1964 through 1972 were more
similar to the Deep South states than the other Rim South
states. With Nixon's overwhelming win in 1972,
contributions by the three sectors were obliterated. For
the six presidential elections beginning in 1952, Florida
voters gave the GOP 54 percent of the vote. Republican
support increased and became widely dispersed across the
state between 1952 and 1972 with the traditional vote and
the white-collar sector contributing at high levels except
in 1964 and 1972.

72
North Carolina
North Carolina and Tennessee appear to have similar and
stable Republican support. Both states have large
traditional mountain Republican support and a high degree of
vote correlation between contiguous elections.
Nevertheless, the North Carolina support came from a
different and changing social basis.
North Carolina's traditional Republican support
declined steadily between 1944 and 1972. By 1972 its
contribution to the GOP vote was negative. Tennessee's
traditional vote declined only slightly and remained very
high until 1972. North Carolina Republicans experienced a
surge of support from the white-collar sector beginning in
1952, and that support remained very strong until 1972 when
it declined, but remained positive.
Evidence of the strength of the white-collar sector in
the Republican vote is the stability of the vote in the
1960, 1964, and 1968 elections. North Carolina's
white-collar vote remained very stable, unlike most Southern
states. Only Texas displayed a more stable Republican
white-collar vote over the three elections.
North Carolina's black belt did not make a positive
contribution to the GOP presidential vote in any election
between 1944 and 1972. In every other Southern state the
black belt was a positive contributor in at least one
election during that period. Seagull (1975) attributed the

73
growth of the white-collar sector and decline of the
traditional support as a function of intensity of party
loyalty and level of partisan security between the
Republican parties of Tennessee and North Carolina.
Tennessee's Republicans were much more secure and loyal
because of their political strength in the eastern part of
the state. Tennessee's Democrats virtually conceded to the
GOP the two eastern congressional seats, while North
Carolina's Democrats did not take the same "live and let
live" attitude, but rather they campaigned in North
Carolina's traditional Republican areas, thus weakening the
intensity of party loyalties.
Tennessee
The high level of voting stability in Tennessee can be
traced to the traditional Republican vote in the thirty-five
eastern counties of the state. Tennessee had a highly
correlated Republican vote pattern between each election
from 1944 to 1972. Prior to 1952, Republican support came
almost entirely from traditional Republican counties. The
traditional support remained stable and was a high positive
contributor to the GOP vote through 1968. The stability of
the traditional vote played a large role in the Nixon
plurality in 1968. In 1972 traditional Republicans
supported the party at a significant level, but one
diminished greatly from levels achieved in previous

74
elections. The black-belt and white-collar sectors have
been less stable and contributed in a varied pattern to GOP
presidential candidates.
The white-collar sector contributed positively in 1952
and 1956, but below levels of the Deep South states. Since
1956 the white-collar vote contribution has been small, but
positive. Seagull (1975) suggests the large traditional
Republican vote limits the emergence of a newer cleavage.
The black-belt contribution in 1952 was greater than
that of the white-collar sector, but was much less stable.
The black-belt contribution in 1956 was barely positive. In
1960 and 1964 the contribution of black-belt counties was
positive and large. In 1968 black-belt support all but
vanished, but returned to a significant positive level in
1972. Tennessee's black belt was a very unstable
contributor to GOP presidential support.
The traditional vote, the white-collar sector, and the
black belt all contributed positively to the Republican vote
except in 1944 and 1948. Tennessee was the only Southern
state in which all three sectors made positive contributions
to the Republican vote in 1972.
Texas
In Texas the movement of the Republican base of support
from the traditional Republicans to the white-collar sector
is evident. The traditional vote contribution declined

75
steadily and dramatically from 1948 through 1964, returned
to a significant level in 1968, but declined sharply again
in 1972. By 1972 the traditional Republican support was
barely positive. During the same period the white-collar
sector's support increased, but less precipitously. The
white-collar vote became the core of the Texas GOP support.
In 1960, 1964 and 1968 the white-collar sector in Texas was
the most stable contributor to the Republican vote in all of
the Southern states.
The Texas black belt has been relative consistent in
its attitude toward GOP presidential candidates. The
black-belt counties never gave the Republicans a substantial
positive vote contribution. The black belt's effect on the
Republican vote was negative in five of eight presidential
elections from 1944 through 1972. Black-belt counties made
a small positive contribution only in 1948, 1956, and 1964.
Lyndon Johnson's candidacies in 1960 and 1964 no doubt
slowed Republican progress, and Texas was the only Southern
state to remain Democratic in 1968. Texas's GOP vote in
1972 was the smallest of the Southern states, and the
traditional and white-collar sectors played a positive but
small role in the Republican landslide win.

76
Virginia
Seagull's (1975) analysis reveals only a weak
explanation of the Republican vote in Virginia. There was a
"blurring and softening" of former bases of cleavage, but
low coefficients from the independent variables made
explanation difficult. Seagull attributes the softening to
a rapidly expanding population and enfranchisement and
suggested that distribution of the vote across the
Commonwealth was so similar that the low coefficients may be
effective predictors (1975).
Virginia's traditional support declined steadily
between 1944 and 1964 and contributed insignificantly to the
Goldwater vote. The traditional vote contribution was
positive in 1968, but became negative in the 1972 election.
The black-belt sector supported GOP presidential
candidates in a "surge and decline" pattern. The black-belt
counties made small but positive contributions in the
elections of 1952 and 1964, but were negative contributors
in each other election between 1944 and 1972.
The white-collar sector contributed significantly in
elections from 1948 to 1960 but provided a negative
contribution in 1964. The white-collar vote contribution
was small but positive in 1968, and in 1972 it was negative
once again.

77
The state-by-state examination of the social bases of
Republican support indicate substantial changes in the
Southern electorate at the presidential level. The
white-collar sector succeeded the traditional Republicans as
the core of GOP support. The expansion and strength of the
white-collar sector is particularly evident in the three-way
race of 1968. A persistent and stable white-collar vote is
present despite the appeal of the Wallace candidacy. The
data also indicate that the voting cleavages of the two
subregions differ more than slightly.
The white-collar sector made larger gains as a
proportion of the Republican vote in the Deep South states
than in the Rim South. The white-collar vote in the Deep
South, except for Alabama, made a larger contribution to the
Republican vote than the traditional Republican sector. The
traditional vote in the Rim South continued to make the
greatest contribution to Republican support, although the
white-collar vote was positive and significant in most
elections between 1952 and 1968.
The three sectors explain little of the 1972 vote in
the two subregions. There is sufficient evidence to suggest
that force present in the Goldwater vote in 1964 and in the
Nixon and Wallace votes of 1968 played a prominent role in
the 1972 Republican vote. Seagull (1975) suggested that the
1964 and 1972 Republican vote represented a possible new
routine pattern.

78
The black belt remained fluid up to 1972, but made a
positive contribution to the Republican vote in at least one
presidential election in every Southern state except North
Carolina. An expanding white-collar sector became a stable
core of support for the Republicans. Traditional Republican
support continued to play a positive role in the Republican
vote. By 1972 Republican acceptance at the presidential
level was an accomplished fact.
The Carter nomination in 1976 gave Southerners a second
opportunity in four elections to choose between an
acceptable Democrat and a conservative Republican not
offensive to the South. Again, Southerners voted for the
Democrat. The 1976 election indicated the real level of
presidential Republicanism in the South. Even with a
Southerner at the head of the Democratic ticket and the race
issue removed, Southern Republicans remained competitive
receiving 45 percent of the vote. In 1980, with a true
conservative heading the Republican slate and aided with the
ineffectiveness of the Carter administration, Southerners
gave a majority of votes to the GOP in spite of a Southern
candidate.
Republican presidential nominees received 57 percent of
the Southern vote in presidential elections from 1972
through 1984. The GOP won decisively or has been
competitive in each presidential election since 1968. The
Democrats were competitive with a Southerner as their

79
nominee, but even Carter produced no landslide of support.
Black and Black (1987) found Southern Republican support
comes from three sources: traditional mountain Republicans,
urban Republicans, and interstate Republicans (1987). The
first two were discussed earlier. Urban GOP voters and
traditional Republicans remain the key to Republican
successes. The most recent Republican support comes from
smaller population centers traversed by the interstate
highway system which Black and Black conclude is an
indication of the attractiveness of the Republican party to
the middle class beyond metropolitan areas (1987).
The acceptance of Republicanism at the presidential
level was completed by 1972. Even though Jimmy Carter won
the South in 1976, the native Southerner could not achieve a
landslide in the region and, more importantly, he failed to
win a majority of the white vote. Presidential
Republicanism was established in the most dynamic
metropolitan areas of the South, the most rapidly growing
areas, and was spreading to the middle classes of the small
urban areas. The GOP has captured the votes of white
Southerners since 1968. The black vote moved securely into
the Democratic party in 1964. Black and Black conclude the
Republican party is the dominant party in presidential
elections in the South, and outside of a "stupendous
Republican misrule" will continue to command majority
support (1987, chapter 12). Black and Black do not dismiss

80
the Democratic party as noncompetitive, nor do they view the
Republican party as pervasive and stable as the Democrats
during the Roosevelt years. They see the Democrats winning
presidential contests only under unusual circumstances such
as an array of short-term forces working against the
Republicans (1987).
The GOP dominance of presidential elections is not
evenly distributed among Southern states or voters.
Presidential elections divide along racial and economic
lines. Southern Republicans have gained the support of
white middle-class voters. Carter's reelection bid drew
approximately one-third of Southern whites to the Democratic
column. Southern blacks have voted solidly Democratic, with
GOP presidential nominees receiving no more than a minuscule
share of the Southern black vote since 1964.
The black vote became a potentially significant force
in Southern elections with passage of the Voting Rights Act
of 1965. The Deep South states have the highest black
populations in the nation. Since 1964 Southern blacks have
demonstrated their overwhelming support for Democratic
presidential candidates. Nevertheless, the loss of almost
all black support is not the only flaw in Republican growth.
The next two chapters will review Southern voting behavior
and discuss the revelations and implications for future
Republican success and growth.

81
Notes
'See Strong (1960) and Seagull (1975).
2Harry Truman was not on the Alabama ballot. In each
of the states Thurmond won, the States' Rights Democrats
assumed the ballot position normally held by the Democratic
party. The "Dixicrats" had little appeal in the Rim South
where the Republican nominee actually outpolled Thurmond by
a comfortable margin.
3A metropolitan county is defined as one with a city of
50,000 or more residents.
4Frank Bryan, in Politics in the Rural States (Boulder,
CO: Westview Press, 1981), found SES provided a more
reliable explanation than urbanism for the GOP vote in
Mississippi.
5Nixon's vote was similar to Eisenhower's, but the
Republican nominee in 1960 failed to carry Texas and
Louisiana, states Eisenhower won in 1956. Texas was the
home state of the Democratic Vice-Presidential candidate,
and the large Catholic population in southern Louisiana
helped carry the state for John Kennedy.
6John Tower received 50.6 percent of the vote in a
special election to fill the U.S. Senate seat of Lyndon
B. Johnson who was elected Vice-President in 1960. Johnson
actually ran for reelection to the Senate as well as for
Vice-President. His 1960 opponent was John Tower, who
received 41 percent of the vote. Tower became the first
Republican U.S. Senator from the South in the twentieth
century.
7See E. M. Schreiber, "Where the Ducks Are: Southern
Strategy versus Fourth Party," Public Opinion Quarterly 35
(1971), pp. 155-167.
®See CBS News Election Day Survey as cited in Theodore
H. White, The Making of the President 1972 (New York:
Athenian, 1973).
9Seagull's major argument is there has been a
realignment in the Southern Republican vote and the reliable
basis of the Republican vote in the South is in the
white-collar sector. Seagull examines a common set of
cleavages in the separate Southern states. Similarities and
dissimilarities among the states are found. The states'
Republican vote is examined in terms of the varying
contributions to it of three variables. The independent

82
variables are the traditional Republicans, black-belt
voters, and the white-collar sector. They are measured,
respectively, by the proportion Republican for President in
1940, the proportion Negro in the population in 1960, and
the proportion of the employed population working in
white-collar occupations as defined by the U.S. Census.
Seagull refers to the proportion Negro in 1960, for
convenience, as the black belt. All measures are at the
county level. Where available, data on Negro voting
registration rates are also included in the analysis for
additional control of their effects on the independent
variables.
Seagull utilizes three levels of analysis—strength of
vote, correlation of votes over time, and a multiple
regression analysis—to estimate which cleavages are the
most important in accounting for the Republican vote.
10The state-by-state discussion of Republican support
draws substantially on Seagull's tables, Correlations of
Contiguous Pairs of Republican Votes by State and Regression
Coefficients for Republican Presidential Votes. The tables
are included as an appendix to this research.
"Seagull found Louisiana's white-collar sector never
contributed positively to third-party movements. Although
third-party and independent election slates were on the
Louisiana ballot in 1948, 1956, 1960, and 1968, they drew
significant support only in the black belt.
12Arkansas was the only Rim South state to vote
Democratic in the 1928 presidential election. The Deep
South states also voted Democratic. Arkansas also joined
four Deep South states in support of Wallace in 1968.

CHAPTER 4
THE INSTITUTIONALIZATION OF PARTY COMPETITION:
NONPRESIDENTIAL POLITICS
The preceding chapters traced the rise of the Solid
South, its decline, and the phenomenon of Southern
presidential Republicanism. Chapter 4 describes the voting
behavior of Southerners at levels below the Presidency.
This chapter demonstrates that Republican development has
been from the top down. While being successful at the
presidential level, the GOP has had much less success at the
congressional and state level.
The data in this chapter allow the examination of
Southern Republican growth at levels of elective office
essential to development of a fully competitive two-party
system. More importantly, the data reveal constraints on
Republican party development in the South. Indicators drawn
from the data will be developed into variables which will be
measured and tested in a later chapter as to their influence
on the success or failure of Southern Republican
development.
Six of the nine presidential elections between 1956 and
1988 resulted in divided government.1 Voters chose to
83

84
divide the Congress and the Presidency between the two major
political parties. Some research sees this as an advantage
for the GOP and the beginning of two-party development in
the South. A positive indication is that Southern
conservatives have been comfortable voting for Republican
presidential nominees since 1964 and are finding it easier
to support GOP candidates at other levels of electoral
office (Cavanaugh and Sundguist 1985). The South has played
an essential role in the election of GOP presidential
candidates since 1968 when Richard Nixon carried five Rim
South states and South Carolina. Southern presidential
Republicans are Southern conservatives who, in time, will
become Republicans and cast a partisan vote for offices from
the Presidency down (Bullock 1988; Cavanaugh and Sundquist
1985). This optimistic view of Republican growth is not
shared by all students of Southern voting behavior.
Kevin P. Phillips (1982) sees the nation having a
Republican majority at the presidential level, a competitive
Senate, and a Democratic House of Representatives. This
assumes the continuation of the ticket-splitting behavior of
the electorate, something Phillips calls "split-level
realignment" (p. 94). Other reasonable assumptions are that
the South and the Republicans continue to agree on national
and ideologically charged issues and the Democratic Congress
is motivated to domestic issues and constituent service.

While voting regularly for Republican presidential
nominees over the past two decades, Southerners have been
less enthusiastic about GOP candidates for other offices.
U.S. Senate Elections
The election of Republicans to the U.S. Senate from
Southern states began with John Tower of Texas in 1961.
Tower became the first Southern Republican Senator in the
twentieth century. Strom Thurmond, a converted Democrat
from South Carolina, was reelected in 1966 as a Republican.
Howard Baker of Tennessee was elected to his first term the
same year. Southern Republican representation in the Senate
grew steadily over the 1962-1972 period, reaching 32 percent
of the Southern delegation by 1972.2 Tower, Thurmond, and
Baker were all reelected during the period and would provide
a stable base for a varying proportion of Southern
Republicans in the Senate. Republican success in Senate
races did not slow entering the 1970s. Florida had elected
Edward J. Gurney in 1968 and Tennessee chose a second
Republican, William Brock, in 1970. Virginia and North
Carolina followed with the selection of William Scott and
Jesse Helms, respectively, in 1972. Southern Republicans
were riding the crest of the region's dissatisfaction with
the National Democratic Party over civil rights issues and
the nomination of liberal presidential candidates. Between
1972 and 1978 Southern Republican senatorial fortunes

suffered along with the entire party across all electoral
levels after the "Watergate affair."3
86
Gurney did not run for reelection in 1974 after charges
surfaced that he was involved in helping friends get housing
contracts and Brock lost in 1976 after serving a single
term. Scott also chose not to seek a second term in 1978,
but John Warner was elected, preserving one Republican
Senate seat for Virginia. Up to 1978 all Republican
senators from the South were elected from Rim South states,
except Thurmond. One reason for Democratic dominance in the
Deep South was the high proportion of blacks who voted
Democratic at high levels. The Republicans' best
opportunities for winning were when black and white
Democrats did not vote as a coalition and the GOP was
running an experienced candidate.
Thad Cochran, a U.S. Representative from Mississippi,
sneaked into the Senate in 1978 with a 43 percent plurality
in a three-way race. Charles Evers, an independent black
candidate, split the remaining vote with Democrat Maurice
Danton. Entering the 1980s, Republicans held less than
one-third of the Southern Senate seats. Sixty-two percent
of the Republican victories were won by Tower, Thurmond, and
Baker, who all served through 1984 when Baker resigned to
prepare a run at the Republican presidential nomination and
Tower retired. Thurmond and Helms remained the only
Southern Republicans elected to the Senate three times.

87
Nevertheless, the 1980 elections would bring four additional
Southern Republicans to the Senate, two from the Deep South
states.4
Ronald Reagan swept to victory in the 1980 presidential
election, carrying ten of the eleven former Confederate
states.5 Reagan helped carry a large number of Republicans
into office further down the ticket. The percentage of
Southern Senate seats held by Republicans nearly doubled,
going from 27 to 45 percent. U.S. House seats rose from 29
to 36 percent, and state legislative seats increased
3 percent, but remained low at 16.6 percent. Arkansas
elected its first Republican governor since 1968, but Frank
White's victory over Democrat incumbent Bill Clinton was
less related to Reagan's popularity than to Clinton's auto
license fee and Cuban refugee housing at Fort Chaffee.
Clinton won the seat back in the next election.
Reagan's ideologically charged campaign was made to
order for Southern Republican senatorial candidates
emphasizing well-received conservative positions on busing,
abortion, defense, government size, and economic policy
(Cook 1981). Republican Senate candidates attempted to tie
their own campaigns to that of Reagan and were largely
successful.
Republican Senate candidates Mack Mattingly in Georgia,
Paula Hawkins in Florida, Jeremiah Denton in Alabama, and
John East in North Carolina were recipients of the Reagan

88
campaign and a national tide running against the Democratic
party (Lamis 1984, chapter 3). County-level correlations
between the Southern Republican Senate challengers and the
Reagan vote range from .73 for Mattingly to .94 for Denton
(p. 252). The four conservative Republicans shared other
political characteristics and fate. All were conservative
ideologues who lined up behind the Reagan approach to
governing; all were elected by small margins, and average of
2.2 percent; all had very limited or no previous political
experience; and all faced experienced previous Democratic
officeholders. None would serve a second term. All four
seats were lost to Democrats in the 1986 elections. Three
of the four were defeated, and East died before his term was
completed. Table 4.1 indicates the success of Southern
Republicans in U.S. Senate elections.
Between 1966 and 1978 no Republican held a Senate seat
from a Deep South state except Thurmond who had been elected
first as a Democrat, then as a write-in candidate, and
finally as a Republican. Republicanism does not appear to
be responsible for Thurmond's success. Rim South
Republicans challenged Democratic officeholders more
frequently than Deep South Republicans, and Rim South
Republicans won more often and received a higher average
vote. One advantage Border South Republicans have had over
Deep South Republicans is the lower proportion of Democratic
incumbents in general elections. The success of Republicans

89
Table 4.1
Number and Percentage of Senatorial Seats in the
South by Party, 1966-1988
Year
Democratic
Republican
1966
19
(86)
3
(14)
1968
18
(82)
4
(18)
197 08
16
(73)
5
(23)
1972
14
(64)
7
(32)
1974
15
(68)
6
(27)
1976“
16
(73)
5
(23)
1978
15
(68)
6
(27)
1980
11
(50)
10
(45)
1982
11
(50)
11
(50)
1984
12
(55)
10
(45)
1986
16
(73)
6
(27)
1988
15
(68)
7
(32)
Sources: 1966-1970 computed by author from Richard M.
Scammon, ed., America Votes (Washington, DC: Governmental
Affairs Institute, 1966-1988). Figures for 1972-1988 taken
from Norman J. Ornstein, Vital Statistics for Congress,
1989-1990 (Washington, DC: Congressional Quarterly, Inc.,
1990), pp. 13 and 15.
Note: Figures in parentheses are percentages of seats held.
8 Harry Byrd, Jr., elected as an independent in 1970 and
1976.

90
in the Rim South between 1962 and 1978 has given Rim South
Republicans the incumbent advantage in more races than in
the Deep South where victories and incumbent advantage have
been highly limited. Southern Republicans have made gains
at the Senate level second only to presidential
Republicanism, but have held one-half of the Southern seats
only during the two-year period 1982-1984.
Republicans have held approximately 30 percent of
Southern Senate seats over the twenty years from 1970-1990,
except for the 1980-1986 period when the GOP held 45 to
50 percent of the seats. After the 1986 elections
Republicans held 27 percent of the Southern seats, the same
proportion held in 1974 and 1978. Victories in Florida and
Mississippi in 1988 brought the Republican total to seven,
or 32 percent of the Southern delegation. When viewed in
terms of pre-Watergate years, the post-Watergate period, and
the Reagan years, the Southern GOP held 22 and 26 percent of
the Southern Senate seats during the first two periods,
respectively. Republicans held 40 percent of the Southern
seats during the Reagan years. By the later part of the
1980s they held less than one-third, a proportion similar to
the number held in the 1970s. Table 4.2 summarizes
Republican competitiveness in U.S. Senate elections.
The GOP has made gains at the U.S. Senate level, but
has gone through a roller-coaster-type electoral experience
of wins, losses, and lost opportunities. The proportion of

Table 4.2
Southern Elections for U.S. Senate, 1966-1988
Number of
Number of
Republican
Mean
Republican
Mean
Republican
Winning
Democratic
Incumbents
Races
Challenges
Wins
Vote
Margin
Present
Deep South
Alabama
9“
7
(78)b
1
(11)
34.5
3.2
4
(44)
Georgia
8
7
(88)
1
(13)
32.4
1.8
6
(75)
Louisiana
8
2
(25)
0
(0)
—
—
6
(75)
Mississippi
8
6
(75)
3
(38)
38.4
14.4
5
(63)
South Carolina
8
8
(100)
4
(50)
47.7
24.4
4
(50)
Rim South
Arkansas
V
7
(100)
0
(0)
34.7
0.0
6
(75)
Florida
8
8
(100)
3
(38)
46.0
2.1
2
(25)
North Carolina
8
8
(100)
4
(50)
48.1
4.5
3
(38)
Tennessee
8
8
(100)
4
(50)
45.6
13.6
4
(50)
Texas
8
8
(100)
4
(50)
48.6
10.1
3
(38)
Virginia
9“
8
(88)
4
(44)
39.2
12.0
1
(13)
Source: Calculated by author
from data in
Richard
M. Scammon,
ed.. America
Votes,
volumes 9-
19
(Washington, DC:
Governmental
Affairs Institute,
1966-1988).
“ Includes special elections.
b Figures in parentheses are percentages.
1966 election in Arkansas not included because vote total not recorded.

92
Senate seats grew to a respectable level on the backs of
longtime incumbents Tower, Thurmond, and Baker and, more
recently, Helms and Warner. Nevertheless, weak first-term
incumbents Brock, Mattingly, Denton, Hawkins, and James T.
Broyhill, appointed to East's North Carolina seat only
months before the 1986 elections, were replaced by more
experienced Democrats. In addition, the GOP missed
opportunities in 1978 and 1988 when Scott and Paul Tribble,
Jr., both first-term senators from Virginia declined to seek
reelection.
While incumbency has undoubtedly benefitted Republican
officeholders, the GOP is yet to receive a benefit egual to
that received by the Democrats. Southern Republicans have
been able to defeat only four Democratic senators—Albert
Gore in Tennessee, 1970; Herman Talmadge in Georgia, 1980;
and first-term incumbents William Spong in Virginia, 1972,
and Robert Morgan in North Carolina, 1980. Talmadge
received 49 percent of the vote even though he was weakened
by a divorce, alcoholism, and scandal concerning illegal use
of campaign funds. All but the Virginia seat were
recaptured by the Democrats in the following election.
House of Representatives Elections
The House of Representatives offers the most pertinent
insight into the growth of Southern Republicans at the
federal level. The large number of races geographically

93
distributed across the states allows for analysis not
available for other offices. House races provide a sample
large enough to examine the competitiveness of the Southern
GOP, i.e., its ability to contest races, receive a
competitive level of votes, and win elections.
Republicans cannot expect to win seats without putting
forth qualified candidates in more races than they have
contested over the 1966-1988 period. The South is not
monolithic in voting behavior. The Deep South and the Rim
South vote display different patterns. Table 4.3 indicates
the GOP's ability to contest congressional races in the Deep
South.
In the twelve congressional elections years between
1966 and 1988 the GOP ran a full slate of candidates only in
Mississippi in 1988 and South Carolina in 1974 and 1988.
Deep South Republicans contested less than one-half of the
seats in 1968 and 1970. Grand Old Party candidates were
entered in more than 75 percent of the races only in 1986
and 1988. Republicans have contested 66 percent of the
seats over the twelve election years. Only South Carolina
has contested more than 75 percent over the 1966-1988
period. Alabama, Georgia, and Mississippi ran candidates in
62 to 65 percent of the races. The Rim South figures are
slightly higher. Table 4.4 shows the percentage of House
races contested by the GOP in the Border states.

Table 4.3
Percentage of House Seats Contested by Republicans
in the Deep South, 1966-1988
Alabama
Georgia
Louisiana
Mississippi
South Carolina
1966
75
80
38
60
53
1968
75
30
38
20
83
1970
50
50
13
20
67
1972
86
40
25
60
83
1974
43
80
38
60
100
1976
57
70
50
80
83
1978
57
50
—
80
67
1980
43
80
—
80
67
1982
57
70
—
80
83
1984
43
60
—
60
83
1986
86
60
—
80
83
1988
71
80
““
100
100
Source: Computed by author from Richard M. Scammon, ed., America Votes (Washington,
DC: Governmental Affairs Institute, 1966-1988).
Note: Figures are for general election races. Louisiana omitted after 1976 because
a general election is often not held for some seats.

Table 4.4
Percentage of House Seats Contested by Republicans
in the Rim South, 1966-1988
Arkansas
Florida
North Carolina
Tennessee Texas
Virginia
1966
50
50
82
78
26
60
1968
50
92
82
89
52
80
1970
25
75
91
89
46
90
1972
25
87
82
100
54
80
1974
50
60
73
63
59
70
1976
75
67
82
63
79
80
1978
50
73
91
75
88
80
1980
50
100
91
88
75
90
1982
100
90
100
89
79
90
1984
50
74
100
78
67
80
1986
100
74
100
78
67
70
1988
75
79
82
67
59
80
Source: Compiled from Richard
Governmental Affairs Institute,
M. Scammon, ed.,
1966-1988).
America Votes
(Washington
, DC:
&
U1

Border South Republicans have contested more than
60 percent of the races in each election year over the
96
twenty-two-year period except for 1966 when they contested
58 percent of the districts. Rim South candidates have
contested over 70 percent of the districts in nine of the
twelve election years. No Border state has, on the average,
left one-half of the races uncontested, and four of the six
states have run candidates in over 75 percent of the races.
Full slates were run in Tennessee in 1972, Florida in 1980,
Arkansas in 1982 and 1986, and North Carolina in 1982, 1984,
and 1986. Over the twelve-election-year period the Rim
South has contested 73 percent of the seats.
The two subregions displayed different patterns of
contested races. The Border states maintained a higher
level of contested races and had a stronger negative
reaction to Watergate than the Deep South. Table 4.5
summarizes the figures for contested elections in the South
and groups the data by periods, i.e., pre-Watergate,
post-Watergate, and the Reagan years.
There was no post-Watergate decline in the proportion
of congressional races contested except in Alabama. After
Watergate, Alabama has never contested congressional races
at the level prior to Nixon's resignation. South Carolina
showed no increase between 1974 and 1988, but the state was
the most competitive of the Deep South states at 83 percent,
a level exceeding that of most of the Rim South.

97
Table 4.5
Percentages of House Seats Contested by
Republicans in the South by Period
1966-1972
1974-1978
1980-1988
Alabama
71
52
60
Georgia
50
67
70
Louisiana
29
—
—
Mississippi
40
73
80
South Carolina
71
83
83
Arkansas
43
58
75
Florida
76
67
82
North Carolina
84
82
95
Tennessee
89
75
80
Texas
45
78
67
Virginia
78
77
82
Deep South
58
68
72
Rim South
70
74
78
South
66
72
77
Source: Compiled from Richard M. Scammon, ed., America
Votes (Washington, DC: Governmental Affairs Institute,
1966-1988).

98
Florida, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia all
showed a decline in contested races during the
post-Watergate period. Arkansas and Texas showed increases.
All decliners rebounded during the Reagan years, contesting
more races than in preceding periods, although Tennessee did
not reach its pre-Watergate level. Texas declined
11 percent during the Reagan years. Overall, the South and
each of the two subregions showed slightly increased levels
of ability to provide candidates for congressional elections
across the three time periods. Nevertheless, the GOP has
not reached its level of competitiveness in an uninterrupted
progression and even in the 1980-1988 period has seen a
decline from the beginning of the period to the end.
In 1980 Republicans contested 87 of 108 Southern
congressional seats. In 1988 they entered the same number
of candidates for 116 available seats. David Sutton (1990)
reported one of four districts in the region went
unchallenged. George Bush won 18 of 29 districts where the
GOP had no candidate and in 12 of the 18 districts he
carried Bush won by 55 percent or more of the vote (1990).
A political party must enter candidates in races for office
if it is to have any chance of growth. To be competitive it
must receive sufficient numbers of votes to attract to the
party additional supporters, resources, guality candidates,
and eventually have a winning campaign. Tables 4.6 and 4.7
show the percentages of total congressional vote received by

Table 4.6
Percentage of Total House Votes for Major Parties
in the Deep South States, 1966-1988
Alabama
Georgia
Mississippi
South Carolina
Democrat
Republican
Republican
Democrat
Republican Democrat
Republican
Democrat
1966
60
39
66
34
73
16
70
29
1968
60
26
74
20
92
7
66
32
1970
64
25
74
25
86
9
72
27
1972
55
39
71
28
65
31
52
47
1974
67
30
72
28
51
43
58
41
1978
68
32
74
26
59
40
64
36
1978
69
30
80
20
49
46
66
31
1980
62
35
71
28
54
38
49
48
1982
70
28
70
23
57
41
54
45
1984
72
27
72
28
60
38
51
48
1986
61
39
73
27
60
40
63
36
1988
61
37
67
33
66
34
55
44
Source: Computed by author from
Governmental Affairs Institute,
data in Richard M. Scammon,
1966-1988).
ed., America Votes
(Washington,
DC:
Note:
Louisiana
vote totals and
party vote
not reported
for
uncontested elections.
vo
vo

Table 4.7
Percentage of Total House Votes for Major Parties
in the Rim South, 1966-1988
North Carolina
Tennessee
Texas
Virginia
Democrat Republican
Democrat Republican
Democrat
Republican
Democrat
Republican
1966
53
47
48
48
82
16
57
39
1968
56
44
48
50
72
28
48
44
1970
55
44
59
41
73
26
51
46
1972
54
45
46
53
70
29
51
46
1974
65
35
59
40
72
27
55
39
1976
64
35
62
36
65
35
46
46
1978
60
40
55
42
61
40
42
56
1980
56
44
51
48
59
40
31
65
1982
53
44
59
40
65
33
47
52
1984
52
48
55
45
58
42
43
55
1986
57
43
58
41
59
42
52
45
1988
56
44
60
38
59
39
42
57
Source: Computed from Richard M. Scammon, ed., America Votes (Washington, DC:
Institute, 1966-1988).
Note: Arkansas and Florida do not report votes for uncontested races.
Governmental Affairs

101
the Democrats and Republicans in congressional races,
1966-1988.
The GOP mean vote was less than 40 percent in each
election year and less than 35 percent in one-half of the
years. No Deep South state gave GOP candidates an average
vote as much as 40 percent over the twelve elections, and
three of the states gave Republican candidates less than
35 percent of the vote. The average Republican
congressional vote in the Deep South over the twelve
election periods was 33 percent. Between 1972 and 1988 the
mean Republican vote ranged from 32 to 38 percent. Without
the low vote average prior to 1972, the figures indicate a
long-term, nearly stagnant Republican share of the total
congressional vote. In the Rim South there was a similar
behavior. (See table 4.7.)
The Border states have not given the GOP a majority of
the vote over the twelve election years, but the Republican
proportion is higher than in the Deep South, as might be
expected. The 1980 and 1984 elections came very close to a
GOP majority with 49 and 48 percent, respectively.
Republicans received less than 40 percent of the vote in
one-third of the election years. Only Virginia has given
the GOP as much as 45 percent of the congressional vote over
the total period. Texas is the least Republican with
33 percent, and no single election year exceeded 42 percent.
When the vote is categorized into periods, Republican vote

102
share shows an irregular pattern with some increase in GOP
proportion. Table 4.8 shows the percentage of the
Republican share of total House votes by period.
Table 4.8 places the vote share for the subregions and
the South into the periods used for comparison. Alabama and
Georgia show the effect of Watergate on the congressional
vote. Both states' vote share returned to pre-Watergate
levels during the Reagan years. Mississippi Republicans
made large gains during the post-Watergate period. The
credit for the gains can be laid squarely on the shoulders
of two of Mississippi's most popular politicians, Trent Lott
and Thad Cochran, both of whom were reelected with large
margins during the post-Watergate era.6 After Cochran's
election to the Senate in 1978, Mississippi's GOP vote share
declined five percentage points.7 South Carolina, arguably
the most Republican Deep South state, also had a large gain
in vote share during the 1980-1988 period. Without the
large increases in Mississippi, 1974-1978 and the
substantial increases in South Carolina during the 1980-1988
period, GOP vote share in the Deep South for the two periods
would show no increases. The Rim South GOP also felt the
effects of Watergate.
The Border states North Carolina and Tennessee
experienced substantially reduced GOP vote share during the
post-Watergate period. North Carolina's Republicans
regained pre-Watergate vote levels during the 1980s, but

103
Table 4.8
Percentage of Republican Share of Total House Vote
for Major Parties in the South, by Period
1966-1972
1974-1978
1980-1988
Alabama
33
31
33
Georgia
27
25
33
Mississippi
16
43
38
South Carolina
34
36
44
North Carolina
45
37
45
Tennessee
48
39
42
Texas
25
34
39
Virginia
44
47
55
Deep South
28
34
36
Rim South
41
39
45
South
34
37
41
Source: Computed from Richard M. Scammon, ed., America
Votes (Washington, DC: Governmental Affairs Institute,
1966-1988).

104
Tennessee had a congressional vote share six percentage
points less than the pre-Watergate level. Texas showed
continued growth of GOP vote share from period to period,
but at a reduced rate and never reaching 40 percent.
Virginia, the most Republican Southern state, showed a
continued rise in the vote share of GOP congressional
candidates. The South and both subregions show increases
from pre-Watergate through the Reagan years.
Southern Republicans have made gains in the
congressional vote share, but the GOP's proportion has often
fluctuated widely from election to election or across
several election years.8 Although the Southern GOP has
gained modest increases in vote share, the party received
approximately 40 percent across the South and about
one-third of the Deep South vote. This level of support
translated into a limited number of congressional victories
and many Southern states hold fewer seats in 1988 than they
held in years past.
After a series of special elections in Southern
districts in 1989, the Congressional Quarterly observed, "In
Southern elections the GOP is going nowhere" (Duncan 1989).
David Sutton (1990) provides evidence of Duncan's
prediction. In 1980 the GOP won 39 of the 108 House seats
in the eleven Southern states, or 36.1 percent of the total.
In 1988, after the Reagan era and a sweep of the region by

105
George Bush, the GOP still held 39 seats or 33.6 percent of
the region's 116 House seats (1990).
Table 4.9 and 4.10 show GOP congressional victories by
subregion. The high point of the twelve election years in
the Deep South was 1980, when GOP candidates captured
37 percent of the seats.
Deep South Republicans won one-third of the Southern
seats in 1978 and 1984. The GOP won less than 30 percent of
the seats in eight of twenty-three election years. The GOP
held a smaller percentage of Deep South congressional seats
in 1986-1988 than during the first one-half of the 1980s.
No Deep South state elected Republicans to Congress in as
many as one-third of the total races over the
twenty-two-year period, except Alabama. Deep South GOP
congressional candidates won 25 percent of the seats during
the 1966-1988 period. Border South Republican growth is
similar. Table 4.10 shows the GOP victories in the Rim
South.
Rim South GOP congressional victories reached their
highest level in 1980 at 44 percent of the seats. The
average of GOP-held seats since that time has been
36 percent. Rim South Republicans won 40 percent of the
seats in 1972 and 1984, but held 35 percent, or less, in all
the other terms between 1966-1988. Only Virginia elected
Republicans to a majority of its seats more than once.
Tennessee elected Republicans to 63 percent in 1972 and

106
Table 4.9
Percentage of Republican Victories in House Seats
in the Deep South, 1966-1988
Alabama
Georgia
Louisiana
Mississippi
South
Carolina
1966
38
20
0
0
17
1968
38
20
0
0
17
1970
38
20
0
0
17
1972
43
10
13
40
33
1974
43
0
25
40
17
1976
43
0
38
40
17
1978
43
10
38
40
33
1980
43
10
25
40
67
1982
29
10
25
40
50
1984
29
20
25
40
50
1986
29
20
38
20
33
1988
29
10
50
20
33
Source: Computed from Richard M. Scammon, ed., America
Votes (Washington, DC: Governmental Affairs Institute,
1966-1988).

Table 4.10
Percentage of Republican Victories in House Seats
in the Rim South, 1966-1988
Arkansas
Florida
North Carolina
Tennessee
Texas
Virginia
1966
25
25
27
44
9
40
1968
25
25
36
44
13
50
1970
25
25
36
44
13
60
1972
25
27
36
63
17
70
1974
25
33
18
38
13
50
1976
25
33
18
38
8
60
1978
50
27
18
38
17
60
1980
50
27
36
38
21
90
1982
50
32
18
33
19
60
1984
25
37
46
33
37
60
1986
25
37
27
33
37
50
1988
25
47
27
33
30
50
Source: Computed from Richard
Governmental Affairs Institute,
M. Scammon, ed.,
1966-1988).
America Votes
(Washington,
DC:

108
Arkansas's seats were evenly divided from 1978-1980. No Rim
South state elected Republicans to more than 40 percent of
its seats over the 1966-1988 period except Virginia. The
average percentage of congressional seats held by the GOP
during the twenty-two years was 32 percent.
One-half of the Border states had less GOP
congressional seats in 1988 than they held in the early
1970s. The proportion of seats held by Rim South
Republicans declined 5 percent between 1980 and 1988.
Competitive states such as North Carolina and Tennessee lost
GOP seats in the mid- and late 1980s, while Border states
most like the Deep South, Florida, and Texas, made strong
gains. During the 1966-1988 period, Rim South states
elected Republicans to 32 percent of the congressional
seats. When GOP congressional wins are compared by period,
the Deep and Rim South subregions show different patterns.
Table 4.11 indicates the GOP seats held in the region by
period.
Louisiana and Mississippi led the GOP movement in the
post-Watergate period, while Georgia posted the largest
decline in the Deep South.9 Louisiana, Mississippi, and
Alabama failed to gain additional seats or lost seats during
the Reagan era. Georgia made some progress, but fell short
of the total seat share held during the pre-Watergate
period. South Carolina continued its strong movement toward

109
Table 4.11
Percentage of Southern House Seats Won
by Republicans, by Period
1966-1972
1974-1978
1980-1988
Alabama
39
43
31
Georgia
18
3
16
Louisiana
3
33
33
Mississippi
10
40
32
South Carolina
20
22
47
Arkansas
25
33
35
Florida
25
31
36
North Carolina
34
18
31
Tennessee
49
38
34
Texas
13
13
29
Virginia
55
57
62
Deep South
18
26
29
Rim South
30
27
36
South
26
27
34
Source: Computed from Richard M. Scammon, ed., America
Votes (Washington, DC: Governmental Affairs Institute,
1966-1988) .

110
Republicanism. Changes in the Rim South were less dramatic
across the periods.
Arkansas and Florida produced the largest gains during
the post-Watergate period. North Carolina and Tennessee
lost seats. All the Rim South state made gains during the
Reagan years except Tennessee, and North Carolina failed to
reach its pre-Watergate level. Virginia gained a larger
seat share across each of the periods. The GOP won
32 percent of the Border states' seats between 1966-1988.
Table 4.12 summarizes Republican competitiveness for
Congress.
Southern Republicans have increased their seat share in
the House of Representatives, but they appear to have
reached a plateau. The GOP has not increased the proportion
of seats contested, votes received or seats won during the
latter years of the 1980s. The future of Southern
congressional growth is uncertain and if the party loses the
presidency to an "acceptable" Democrat in 1992 the Southern
GOP share of the congressional delegation could decline
substantially as Reagan Democrats return to the traditional
party of the South.
Gubernatorial Elections
Gubernatorial elections are arguably the most important
to building a viable, competitive, and growing political
party within a state. An initial victory of the state house

Table 4.12
Southern Elections for House of Representatives,
1966-1968
States
Number
of Races
Number of
Challenges
Republican
Wins
Republican
Vote
Average
Democratic
Incumbent
Present
Republican
Incumbent
Present
Alabama
87
54 (62)*
32
(37)
32
48
(55)
30
(35)
Georgia
120
75 (63)
15
(13)
27
90
(75)
14
(12)
Louisiana
96
b
22
(23)
—
65
(68)
16
(17)
Mississippi
South Carolina
60
39 (65)
16
(27)
32
40
(67)
11
(18)
Arkansas
48
28 (58)
15
(31)
__C
28
(58)
14
(29)
Florida
187
144 (77)
60
(32)
—
115
(62)
38
(26)
North Carolina
132
109 (81)
38
(29)
43
99
(75)
33
(25)
Tennessee
106
82 (80)
41
(40)
44
53
(52)
40
(39)
Texas
297
187 (63)
59
(20)
33
218
(73)
44
(15)
Virginia
120
95 (79)
70
(58)
49
45
(38)
66
(55)
Source: Compiled from Richard M. Scammon, ed., America Votes, volumes 1-19 (Washington, DC:
Governmental Affairs Institute, 1966-1988).
“ Figures in parentheses are percentages.
b Louisiana number of challenges and vote average omitted because of Louisiana's unique election
system.
c Arkansas and Florida do not report figures for unchallenged races.

112
gives a party legitimacy. The win serves as a symbol of the
strength of a party, its candidates, and provides the party
with positive exposure (Tompkins 1984). In practical terms
it allows the party to place its members in influential and
powerful policymaking positions (Saffell 1987). Holding the
highest office in the state allows the party to hand out
patronage favors, thus bolstering support and providing
rewards for supporters (1987). Winning of the governor's
office draws to the party politically attractive,
experienced, and qualified candidates and gives potential
candidates greater reason to believe they can win if they
are nominated as a candidate of the governor's party.
Gubernatorial candidates are an important element in
building a competitive party. Table 4.13 shows the Deep
South states have been contesting gubernatorial elections
with regularity since 1966.
Only Louisiana's GOP failed to run a candidate in more
than 80 percent of the races. The numbers could be
misleading as an indication of Republican competitiveness.
Three of the Deep South states allowed Democratic
gubernatorial candidates to go unchallenged in one or more
elections. Two of the unchallenged races were missed
opportunities. Independent black parties ran candidates,
thus splitting the Democratic vote. In the 1970 Alabama
race the black National Democratic Party of Alabama drew
14.7 percent of the vote and an independent white candidate

113
Table 4.13
Gubernatorial Elections Contested by Republicans
in the Deep South, 1966-1988
Alabama
Georgia Louisiana Mississippi
South
Carolina
1966
yes
yes
—
yes
1967
—
—
—
yes
—
1968
—
--
no
—
—
1970
no
yes
—
—
yes
1971
—
—
—
no
—
1972
—
—
yes
—
—
1974
yes
yes
—
—
yes
1975
—
—
no
yes
—
1978
yes
yes
—
—
yes
1979
yes
yes
“ ”
1982
yes
yes
—
—
yes
1983
—
—
yes
yes
—
1986
yes
yes
—
—
yes
1987
""
no
yes
Source
: Computed
from
Richard M.
Scammon. ed.. America
Votes
1988) .
(Washington
DC:
Governmental Affairs Institute, 1966-
Note:
Louisiana <
changed election
to the year prior
to the
presidential election year in 1975.

114
received 8.9 percent. Charles Evers, a black civil rights
activist, ran as an independent in the 1971 Mississippi
race. Evers received 22.1 percent of the vote. The GOP
failed to have experienced candidates ready and willing to
take advantage of a split Democratic vote. The number of
challenges is also misleading.
Facing a reelection attempt by a popular George Wallace
Alabama Republicans did not nominate a gubernatorial
candidate in 1974. Elvin McCary, a Republican party member,
ran without an official party nomination and without party
support. McCary received 15 percent of the vote. Ronnie
Thompson, the 1978 GOP nominee in Georgia, entered the
Democratic primary the same year. He ran eighth in a field
of twelve Democrats, receiving 2.8 percent of the vote.
Thompson won the Republican nomination with less total votes
than he received in the Democratic primary. Thompson
received 30 percent of the general election vote.
Republican gubernatorial candidates were often little known,
inexperienced, and had virtually no chance of winning.
The Rim South GOP has been much more competitive
in gubernatorial elections. Table 4.14 shows the
competitiveness of the GOP in the Rim South. Only Tennessee
failed to contest every race for the state house between
1966-1988. Tennessee did not run a candidate in 1966.
Republicans in both the Rim South and the Deep South believe
the Governor's office is important to development. The

Table 4.14
Gubernatorial Elections Contested by Republicans
in the Rim South, 1966-1988
Arkansas
Florida
North Carolina
Tennessee
Texas
Virginia
1966
yes
yes
—
no
yes
1968
yes
—
yes
—
yes
—
1969
—
—
—
—
—
yes
1970
yes
yes
—
yes
yes
—
1972
yes
—
yes
—
yes
—
1973
“ ”
— “
— —
— “
yes
1974
yes
yes
—
yes
yes
—
1976
yes
—
yes
—
—
—
1977
—
—
—
—
—
yes
1978
yes
yes
—
yes
yes
—
1980
yes
—
yes
--
—
—
1981
—
—
—
—
—
yes
1982
yes
yes
—
yes
yes
—
1984
yes
—
yes
—
—
—
1985
—
—
—
—
—
yes
1986
yes
yes
—
yes
yes
—
1988
yes
""
""
Source:
Compiled
from Richard
M. Scammon. ed., America Votes
(Washington,
DC:
Governmental Affairs Institute,
1966-1988).
Note:
Texas had
gubernatorial
terms of two years
until 1972,
and Arkansas
held
gubernatorial elections every two years until 1986.
115

116
state house not only gives the party an opportunity to set
policy and govern, but also the opportunity to reward its
supporters and draw new potential candidates to their cause.
Republicans in the Rim South have held the top state office
more often than their counterparts in the Deep South. Rim
South GOP candidates have the traditional supporters as well
as the support of many middle-class urban an suburban
voters.
Republicans in the Deep South have little traditional
Republican vote and fewer large urban areas with a growing
middle class. Tables 4.15 and 4.16 show a substantial
difference in the level of vote received by GOP candidates
in the subregions.
Only South Carolina gave the GOP an average vote
exceeding 40 percent over the 1966-1988 period. The
remaining Deep South states gave Republican gubernatorial
candidates less than 35 percent. Republicans received less
than 40 percent of the vote in each election year except
1966, 1986, and 1987. Rim South Republicans received a
larger proportion of the vote than GOP candidates in the
Deep South. Table 4.16 shows Republican gubernatorial
support in the Rim South.
The Border South has been more receptive of Republican
gubernatorial candidates. Each Rim South state, except
Arkansas, has given the GOP an average vote exceeding
40 percent. Virginia has given 50 percent of its votes to

Table 4.15
Percentage of Total Gubernatorial Vote for Major
Parties in the Deep South 1966-1988
Alabama
Georgia
Mississippi
South Carolina
Democrat
Republican Democrat
Republican Democrat Republican
Democrat Republican
1966
63
31
46
46
—
—
58
42
1967
—
—
—
—
70
30
—
—
1970
75
0
59
41
—
—
52
46
1971
—
—
—
—
77
0
—
—
1974
85
15
69
31
—
—
48
51
1975
—
—
—
—
52
45
—
—
1978
73
26
80
19
—
—
61
37
1979
—
—
—
—
61
39
—
—
1982
58
39
62
37
—
—
70
30
1983
—
—
—
—
55
39
—
—
1986
43
56
70
29
—
—
48
51
1987
—
—
—
““
53
47
— “
Source:
Computed
from Richard
M. Scammon,
ed. ,
America Votes
(Washington, DC:
Governmental
Affairs
Institute, 1966-1988).
Note:
— indicates no election year.

Table 4.16
Percentage of Total Gubernatorial Votes for Major
Parties in the Rim
South, 1966-1988
Arkansas
North
Florida Carolina
Tennessee
Texas
Virginia
Demo- Repub-
crat lican
Demo- Repub- Demo- Repub-
crat lican crat lican
Demo¬
crat
Repub¬
lican
Demo¬
crat
Repub¬
lican
Demo- Repub-
crat lican
1966
46
54
45
55
—
—
81
NC“
73
26
—
—
1968
48
52
—
—
53
47
—
—
57
43
—
—
1969
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
45
53
1970
62
32
57
43
—
—
46
52
54
46
—
—
1972
75
25
—
—
49
51
—
—
48b
45
—
—
1973
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
NC
51
1974
66
34
61
39
—
—
55
44
61
31
—
—
1976
83
17
—
—
65
34
—
—
—
—
—
—
1977
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
43
56
1978
63
37
56
44
—
—
44
56
49
50
—
—
1980
48
52
—
—
62
37
—
—
—
—
—
—
1981
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
54
46
1982
55
45
65
35
—
—
40
60
53
46
—
—
1984
63
37
—
—
45
54
—
—
—
—
—
—
1985
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
55
45
1986
64
36
45
55
—
—
54
46
46
53
—
—
1988
—
“ “
44
56
— ~
” —
“ —
Source: Compiled from Richard M. Scammon, ed., America Votes, volumes 1-19 (Washington, DC:
Governmental Affairs Institute, 1966-1988).
“ Indicates no candidate.
b Texas election in 1972 was a two-year term.

119
Republican candidates. Republican Rim South gubernatorial
candidates received less than 40 percent in only three
election years, 1966, 1968, and 1976. Across the entire
period the Border states have given the Republicans
44 percent of the their votes for Governor. The larger
proportion of votes in the Border state has translated into
greater success for Rim South gubernatorial candidates.
Table 4.17 indicates the limited success the Deep South
GOP has had in gubernatorial elections.10 Deep South
Republicans have held the governor's office only on four
occasions. Three of the victories were achieved under
exceptionally unusual circumstances. Jim Edwards won in
South Carolina with 50.9 percent of the vote in the 1974
election. The Democratic nominee, Charles D. Ravenel, was
disqualified by the state's Supreme Court less than two
months prior to the general election. Ravenel refused to
support the party's substitute, William Jennings Bryan Doan,
the man he had beaten in a primary runoff, in the general
election. The GOP margin would have been larger if not for
the solid Democratic black vote. Statewide Doan received
95 percent of the vote in precincts with 90 percent or more
black registration and 85 percent of the vote in precincts
with 80-89 percent black registration (Bass and DeVries
1976). Republican gubernatorial nominees since Edwards's
win have made some effort to attract black support, but have

120
Table 4.17
Republican Gubernatorial Wins in the
Deep South, 1966-1988
Alabama
Georgia
Louisiana
Mississippi
South
Carolina
1966
_ .
_ _
1967
—
—
—
—
—
1968
—
—
—
—
—
1970
—
—
—
—
—
1971
—
—
—
—
—
1972
—
—
--
—
—
1974
—
—
—
—
Edwards
1975
—
—
—
—
—
1978
—
—
—
—
—
1979
—
—
Treen
—
—
1980
—
—
—
—
—
1982
—
—
—
—
—
1983
—
—
—
—
—
1986
Hunt
—
—
—
Campbell
1987
—
—
—
—
—
1988
” “
Source: Compiled from Richard M. Scammon, ed., America
Votes (Washington, DC: Governmental Affairs Institute,
1966-1988).
Note: Louisiana changed gubernatorial elections to the year
prior to the presidential elections in 1975. South Carolina
changed its constitution to allow two consecutive terms in
1982 .

121
been unsuccessful. Edwards could not run for reelection
under South Carolina law.11
Louisiana's 1978 race was even more bizarre. Grand Old
Party candidate David C. Treen won the open primary with
21.6 percent of the vote. Four of the five Democratic
candidates, including the Secretary of State and Speaker of
the House, supported Treen in the general election as the
result of a Democratic intraparty fight. Each of the
Democratic defectors accepted positions with the Republican
Administration after a narrow 50.3 percent victory (Lamis
1990). Treen received 37 percent of the vote when he sought
a second term. Treen made a strong attempt to attract black
voters without success. Edward C. Renwick, a Loyola
University political analyst estimated that Treen got no
more than 5 percent of the black vote (Lamis 1990). The
1986 Alabama race was egually as strange.
The Democratic nominee Charles Graddick was
disqualified by a panel of three federal judges as winner of
the primary election. The primary runner-up was substituted
as the party nominee. Graddick continued his campaign as a
write-in candidate. The write-in campaign was terminated
five days before the general election, but the damage to the
Democratic party was done. The Republican, Guy Hunt, a
former county probate judge and Republican party activist
with no formal education past high school, won the general
election with the help of Graddick supporters (Lamis 1990).

122
Hunt received less than 4 percent of the black vote. The
fourth victory was a valid indication of GOP growth in South
Carolina.
The Carroll Campbell 1986 win in South Carolina was a
clear Republican success by a popular, experienced state
legislator and leader in the South Carolina GOP. Still, the
Campbell vote was only 51.0 percent, and blacks gave the
Democrat 96 percent of their vote (Lamis 1990). Republican
gubernatorial candidates in the Rim South had greater
success in winning the state house.
Table 4.18 indicates the success Republicans had in the
Border states. The GOP won the Governor's office sixteen
times during the 1966-1988 period. The wins are distributed
among the six states, but Texas and Arkansas had two-year
terms until 1974 and 1986, respectively. Winthrop
Rockefeller of Arkansas won consecutive terms in 1966 and
1968, but lost in an attempt for a third term. Lamar
Alexander of Tennessee was elected in 1978 and reelected
four years later. Jim Martin of North Carolina won
consecutive terms in 1984 and 1988. Republicans won three
elections, back to back, in Virginia with three different
candidates. Frank White of Arkansas, Claude Kirk and Bob
Martinez of Florida, and Frank Clements of Texas all lost as
one-term incumbents. Clements was reelected in 1986.
One-half of the GOP wins were achieved by four candidates.

Table 4.18
Republican Gubernatorial
Wins in the
Rim South, 1966-1988
Arkansas
Florida
North Carolina Tennessee
Texas
Virginia
1966
Rockefeller
Kirk
—
—
—
--
1967
—
—
—
—
—
—
1968
Rockefeller
—
—
—
—
—
1969
—
—
—
—
—
Holton
1970
—
—
—
Dunn
—
—
1972
—
—
Holshouser
—
—
—
1973
—
—
—
—
—
Godwin
1974
—
—
—
—
—
—
1976
—
—
—
—
—
—
1977
—
—
—
—
—
Dalton
1978
—
—
—
Alexander
Clements
—
1980
White
—
—
—
—
—
1981
—
--
—
—
—
—
1982
—
—
—
Alexander
—
—
1984
—
—
Martin
—
—
—
1986
—
Martinez
—
—
Clements
—
1988
“ —
Martin
“ —
""
Source: Compiled from Richard M. Scammon, ed., America Votes (Washington, DC
Governmental Affairs Institute, 1966-1988).

124
Table 4.19 shows the percentage of gubernatorial
offices held by Republicans in the South, 1966-1988. Viewed
in terms of pre-Watergate, post-Watergate, and the Reagan
years, Republicans achieved limited success over the three
periods. Republicans held 23 percent of Southern
governorships from 1966-1972, 27 percent from 1974-1978, and
30 percent from 1980-1988.
The GOP has contested a large proportion of races, but
many Republican candidates do not have the statewide
identification and experience of their Democratic opponents.
The differences between subregions is substantial. The
Border states contested more races, received a larger
proportion of the votes, and won more gubernatorial races,
1966-1988.
The limited number of Deep South gubernatorial wins
preclude meaningful analysis and comparison of winning vote
margins. Grand Old Party gubernatorial candidates in the
Rim South posted substantial winning margins, except in
Arkansas and Texas. Nine Southern states revised their
constitutions between 1966 and 1984 to allow governors to
succeed themselves for a second term. The Democrats have
benefitted from the reduction of open-seat contests.
Incumbency has been a detriment to Republican chances in
recent years (Black and Black 1987). All Southern states
now have four-year terms. Arkansas was the last to abandon
the two-year term in 1986. Allowing incumbents to succeed

125
Table 4.19
Number of Gubernatorial Offices Held in
the South by Party, 1966-1988
Year
Democratic
Republican
1966
9
(82)
2
(18)
1969
8
(73)
3
(27)
1970
9
(82)
2
(18)
1972
8
(73)
3
(27
1974
8
(73)
3
(27)
1976
9
(82)
2
(18)
1978
8
(73)
3
(27)
1979
7
(64)
4
(36)
1980
6
(55)
5
(45)
1981
8
(73)
3
(27)
1982
9
( 2)
2
(18)
1983
10
(91)
1
( 9)
1984
9
(82)
2
(18)
1986
6
(55)
5
(45)
1988
6
(55)
5
(45)
Source: Computed from Richard M. Scammon, ed., America
Votes (Washington, DC: Governmental Affairs Institute,
1966-1988).
Note: Figures in parentheses are percentage of offices
held.

126
themselves and establishing four-year terms will certainly
work in favor of the Democrats, at least in the near future.
Table 4.20 summarizes the Republican gubernatorial
discussion.
Legislative Elections
The chief concern of this section is the contesting
and winning of state legislative seats. For a number
of reasons—exhausted supplies, incomplete and
uninterpretable returns, and, in several cases, exorbitant
costs—comprehensive returns could not be obtained for all
districts for each election cycle over the 1966-1988 period.
Official electoral tabulations were used whenever possible,
but additional data sources and previous research were
relied upon. State legislatures provide a minority party a
beginning point for candidates, not only as officeholders
but as campaigners. Once elected, minority-party members
can gain experience, statewide exposure, and an enlarged
constituency. These are some of the elements which can lead
to a successful run for higher office. So, state
legislatures provide a training ground, a "farm system" for
a party's ambitious members who may run for and win higher
office, and as a result give the party legitimacy and
credibility. Contesting and winning legislative seats is
vital to the development of the Southern GOP. Table 4.21

Table 4.20
Southern Gubernatorial Elections, 1966-1988
Number of
Races
Number of
Challenges
Republican
Wins
Mean
Republican
Vote (%)
Republican
Winning
Margin (%)
Democratic
Incumbent
Present
Deep South
Alabama
6
5
(83) “
1 (17)
31
13.0
4
< 67 )b
Georgia
6
6
(100)
0 (0)
35
—
2
(33)
Louisiana
6
3
(50)
1 (17)
N/A
0.6
2
(33)
Mississippi
6
5
(83)
0 (0)
33
—
0
(0)
South Carolina
6
6
(100)
2 (33)
43
3.0
1
(17)
Rim South
Arkansas
llc
11
(100)
3 (27)
38
6.0
6
(55)
Florida
6
6
(100)
2 (33)
45
16.0
2
(33)
North Carolina
6
6
(100)
3 (50
47
8.0
1
(17)
Tennessee
6
5
(83)
3 (50)
43
13.0
0
(0)
Texas
8d
5
(100)
3 (38)
50
7.0
3
(38)
Virginia
5
5
(100)
3 (60)
50
7.0
9
(0)
Source: Compiled from Richard M. Scammon, ed., America Votes (Washington, DC: Governmental Affairs
Institute, 1966-1988).
* Figures in parentheses are percentage calculations.
b Includes Lurleen Wallace candidacy.
c Arkansas had two-year terms until 1986.
d Texas had two-year terms until 1974.

128
Table 4.21
Legislative Elections Contested by Republicans
in the Deep South, 1966-1988
Alabama
Georgia
Louisiana
Mississippi
1966
105 (74)
92
(35)
_ _
1967
—
—
—
n/a
1968
—
84
(33)
44
(31)
—
1970
n/a
73
(29)
—
—
1971
—
—
—
23
(14)
1972
—
66
(28)
56
(39)
—
1974
35 (25)
62
(26)
—
—
1975
—
—
n/a
37
(21)
1976
—
57
(21)
—
—
1978
43 (31)
50
(21)
—
—
1979
—
—
23
(16)
55
(32)
1980
—
62
(26)
—
—
1982
43 (31)
74
(31)
—
—
1983
—
—
34
(24)
40
(23)
1984
—
75
(32)
—
—
1986
61 (44)
85
(36)
—
—
1987
49
(34)
60
(35)
Source: Computed from election returns furnished by the
Secretary of State for each of the states shown.
Tabulations for Louisiana are from the open primary
elections. Incomplete South Carolina data do not allow
tabulation.
Note: Figures in parentheses are percentage of total seats
available. n/a = records not available; — indicates not an
election year. Louisiana switched elections to the year
prior to the presidential elections in 1975.

129
indicates the willingness of the GOP to compete in the Deep
South states.
The pattern familiar to students of Southern politics
might have been anticipated. The fast rise of GOP
competitiveness in the early 1960s and early 1970s slowed
dramatically following Watergate and President Richard
Nixon's resignation and would not recover until the 1980s.
Missing data in Mississippi in 1967, Alabama in 1979, and
all years for South Carolina preclude any definitive
comparison of the Deep South states prior to 1972. During
the 1972-1979 period Louisiana was the only Deep South state
contesting more than one-third of the seats. Georgia showed
a steady decline over the period. Mississippi continued to
contest an increasing number of legislative races. By the
late 1980s each Deep South state was contesting legislative
races at a level of at least equal to the 1960s with one
exception—Alabama has never matched the high level of
74 percent contested in 1966. Alabama is the only Deep
South state to contest at least 40 percent of the
legislative races in any election year. The Rim South shows
considerably more competitiveness. Table 4.22 demonstrates
the difference between the subregions.
The Rim South experienced a decline in the proportion
of seats contested during the post-Watergate period. Even
the traditionally competitive states, Tennessee and

130
Table 4.22
Legislative Elections Contested by Republicans
in the Rim South, 1966-1988
Arkansas Tennessee Texas Virginia
1966
35
(35)
n/a
n/a
n/a
1968
n/a
73
(74)
71
(47)
25
(25)
1970
48
(41)
77
(78)
59
(39)
72
(72)
1972
25
(19)
70
(71)
75
(50)
60
(60)
1974
12
(10)
66
(67)
52
(35)
48
(48)
1976
11
(10)
51
(52)
55
(37)
53
(53)
1978
13
(11)
62
(63)
69
(46)
64
(64)
1980
16
(14)
72
(73)
85
(57)
59
(59)
1982
35
(26)
56
(57)
80
(53)
61
(61)
1984
21
(18)
49
(50)
67
(45)
55
(55)
1986
21
(18)
60
(61)
78
(52)
59
(59)
1987
—
—
—
53
(53)
Source: Arkansas data from David E. Sturrock, "Legislative
Elections and the Two-Party South." Paper presented at the
Citadel Symposium, Charleston, 1988. Data for Tennessee,
Texas, and Virginia adapted from Malcolm E. Jewell and David
Breaux, "The Effects of Districting Patterns on Two-Party
Competition for Legislative Seats in the South." Paper
presented at the annual meeting, Southern Political Science
Association, Atlanta, 1989.
Note: All tabulations are for state House of
Representatives except for Arkansas in 1970-1986, which are
all legislative seats. Figures in parentheses are
percentages of total seats available. Virginia figures are
for odd-numbered years, 1969-1987. A nonelection year is
indicated by —. Florida and North Carolina figures are not
available.

Virginia, showed a sharp decline in the number of seats
contested. Tennessee did not return to the level of the
131
pre-Watergate years. Arkansas fell to the 10 percent level
and continued to contest seats at a rate below that of the
Deep South states. Texas showed the largest gains in
proportion of seats contested and continued to show
Republican growth throughout the Reagan years. Contesting
seats is an important indicator of party growth, but a more
significant measure is the composition of the state
legislature. Table 4.23 shows the number of Republicans
holding legislative seats in the Deep South.
The growth of Republicanism at the state legislature
level has been slow. The effects of Watergate are most
evident in Alabama and Georgia. Republicans held no
legislative office in Alabama in 1975. Even South Carolina
showed a decline from the proportions of seats held in 1973.
Louisiana and Mississippi showed small but continued growth
over the post-Watergate period. During the Reagan years all
Deep South states rebounded. Each elected an increasing
number of Republicans to legislative seats. The Rim South
followed a similar electoral pattern. Table 4.24 shows the
size of Southern Republican delegations in Rim South states.
The Border South states are more urbanized, have higher
levels of per capita income, and traditional Republican
counties in North Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia have a
considerably lower proportion of voting-age blacks than the

132
Table 4.23
Number of Republicans Holding Legislative Seats
in the Deep South, 1967-1989
South
Alabama Georgia Louisiana Mississippi Carolina
1967
1
(1)
20
(11)
4
(3)
3
(2)
23
(13)
1969
2
(1)
34
(14)
0
(0)
3
(2)
7
(4)
1971
2
(1)
28
(ID
3
(1)
4
(2)
13
(8)
1973
2
(1)
37
(16)
5
(4)
4
(2)
24
(14)
1975
2
(0)
29
(12)
5
(4)
5
(3)
19
(11)
1977
2
(1)
28
(12)
5
(4)
5
(3)
15
(9)
1979
4
(3)
26
(11)
9
(6)
5
(3)
18
(11)
1981
4
(3)
28
(12)
10
(7)
8
(5)
22
(13)
1983
11
(8)
31
(13)
9
(6)
8
(5)
26
(15)
1985
16
(11)
35
(13)
15
(10)
9
(5)
37
(22)
1987
21
(15)
37
(16)
27
(19)
11
(6)
42
(25)
1989
23
(16)
47
(20)
22
(15)
17
(10)
48
(28)
Source: Computed from Book of the States (Lexington: Council of State
Governments, 1967-1968 through 1989-1990).
Note: Figures in parentheses are percentages of total seats available.

Table 4.24
Number of Republicans Holding Legislative
Seats in the Rim South, 1967-1989
Arkansas Florida North Carolina Tennessee Texas Virginia
1967
3
(2)
59
(35)
33
(19)
49
(37)
4
(2)
15
(ID
1969
5
(4)
58
(35)
41
(24)
61
(46)
10
(7)
19
(14)
1971
5
(4)
53
(32)
30
(18)
56
(42)
12
(7)
30
(21)
1973
2
(2)
56
(35)
50
(29)
61
(46)
20
(ID
26
(19)
1975
3
(2)
46
(29)
10
(6)
47
(36)
19
(ID
22
(16)
1977
6
(4)
36
(23)
9
(5)
41
(31)
23
(12)
26
(19)
1979
6
(4)
42
(26)
20
(12)
50
(38)
26
(14)
34
(24)
1981
8
(6)
52
(33)
34
(20)
51
(39)
42
(23)
34
(24)
1983
10
(7)
44
(28)
24
(14)
49
(37)
41
(23)
41
(29)
1985
13
(10)
51
(32)
50
(29)
47
(36)
58
(32)
42
(30)
1987
13
(10)
60
(38)
46
(27)
48
(36)
62
(34)
42
(30)
1989
15
(ID
64
(40)
59
(35)
51
(39)
65
(36)
49
(35)
Source: Computed from Book of the States (Lexington: Council of State Governments,
1967-1968 through 1989-1990).
Note: Figures in parentheses are percentages of total seats available.
133

Deep South states. All of these variables place less
constraint on Southern GOP development.
134
Arkansas is the Rim South state most like the Deep
South and has elected Southern GOP legislators at a level
similar to that of Alabama and Mississippi. Florida, North
Carolina, and Tennessee showed declines during the
post-Watergate period. Arkansas, Texas, and Virginia showed
small increases during the post-Watergate period. During
the Reagan years all the Rim South states posted substantial
gains except Tennessee. Tennessee contested and won a lower
proportion of seats during the 1981-1989 years than during
the pre-Watergate period and only slightly more than during
the post-Watergate years. Texas had the largest gain with
consistent growth over the entire twenty-two-year period.
Overall, the GOP has had limited success in Southern
legislative races.
The Rim South share of Southern legislative seats is
nearly twice that of the Deep South. Republican state
legislators hold 36 percent of the total number of seats
available in the South.12
Down-Ticket Elections
Less visible offices, those below the gubernatorial
level elected by statewide partisan vote, are also important
indicators of the strength of a developing political party.
These offices, along with legislative seats, provide the

135
pool of qualified and experienced Democratic candidates
desirous of higher office (Dye 1985). The Southern GOP has
made some inroads in these arenas in the past decade, but
these offices are almost totally in Democratic hands and
remain the foundation of Democratic party strength in the
South. Table 4.25 summarizes the Republican record in
down-ticket races, 1960-1987.
Differences between the subregions are apparent. Deep
South Republicans contested less than one-third of the
races. Approximately one-half were contested in the Rim
South. The Border states have had greater success winning
down-ticket offices, although both subregions have won
1 percent or less. A two-party system is not an image
portrayed by the figures. Republican performance has been
extremely weak contesting and winning down-ticket races.
The GOP received at least 40 percent of the vote in less
than 10 percent of the races.
The GOP won only 8 of 654 races.13 David Sturrock
(1988b) found a very shallow pool of prospective GOP
candidates and strategic decisions by party leaders to
concentrate party resources on top-priority races to be
major explanations for the dearth of GOP candidates and the
poor showing of those who ran. The small number of
candidates reveals the weakness of Southern Republicanism in
lesser statewide races. The GOP contested less than

136
Table 4.25
Down-Ticket Elections in the South,
by Subregion, 1960-1987
Constitutional
Judicial
Total
Deep South
Elections
329
331
660
Candidates
99
(30)
7
(2)
106
(16)
Wins
2
(.6)
0
2
(-3)
40% +
10
(3)
0
10
(2)
Rim South
Elections
325
132
457
Candidates
201
(62)
24
(18)
225
(49)
Wins
6
(2)
0
6
(1)
40% +
64
(20)
16
(12)
80
(18)
South
Elections
654
463
1117
Candidates
300
(46)
31
(7)
331
(30)
Wins
8
(1)
0
8
(-7)
40% +
74
(11)
16
(4)
90
(8)
Source: Adapted from David E. Sturrock, "Down-Ticket
Elections and the Rise of Two-Party South, 1960-1987."
Tables 13, 14, and 15. Paper presented at annual meeting of
the Southern Political Science Association, Atlanta, 1988.

137
one-third of down-ticket offices. Grand Old Party
candidates often were matched against Democratic incumbents,
prominent legislators, or holders of lower constitutional
office looking to move up. The GOP has been unable to
capitalize on its more visible incumbents. With a large
traditional GOP vote for the lower levels of office,
Republican governors have had little coattails. During the
period 1966-1987, only two of seven Southern Republican
governors seeking reelection have won. The presence of a
Republican incumbent at the top of the ticket did not result
in an increase in the guality or guantity of down-ticket
candidates (Sturrock 1990). The Southern GOP has had
greater success in elections below the gubernatorial level
in the most recent elections, 1986-1989. Table 4.26 shows
the Republican down-ticket record during the latter years of
the 1980s.
The number of candidates and proportion of wins
increased significantly during this most recent period.
Most activity remains in the Rim South, especially Florida,
North Carolina, and Texas. Paul Hardy was elected
Lieutenant Governor of Louisiana in 1987. Florida elected
GOP candidates in special elections in 1988 to fill vacated
offices. Jim Smith, former Democratic Attorney General, was
elected Secretary of State and Tom Gallagher, a Republican
State Representative, won the Treasurer/Insurance
Commissioner office. North Carolina elected former

138
Table 4.26
Southern Down-Ticket Elections, 1986-1989
Constitutional
Judicial
Total
Elections
79
36
115
GOP Candidates
46 (58)
25 (69)
71
(62)
GOP Wins
5 (6)
4 (11)
9
(8)
GOP 40%+ Losses
21 (27)
19 (53)
40
(35)
Source: David E. Sturrock, "The Quiet Frontier: Recent
Developments in Southern Down-Ticket Politics." Paper
presented at Citadel Symposium on Southern Politics,
Charleston, 1990.
Note: Figures in parentheses are percentages.

139
Republican Congressman Jim Gardner Lieutenant Governor and
an incumbent GOP railroad Commissioner, by appointment, Kent
Hance, was elected in Texas,
It is not clear if the recent GOP gains signal the
beginning of a higher level of competitiveness for
down-ticket races. The Florida races were to fill remaining
terms, and one of the candidates gained his identity and
popularity as a longtime Democrat. Kent Hance had the
advantages of incumbency in his reelection. The future of
Republican down-ticket competitiveness appears to have
improved, but more candidates and victories are required to
bring the GOP to a competitive level.
Summary
Table 4.27 summarizes Southern GOP electoral
development and defines the limits of a Southern two-party
system. Differences between the two subregions are
demonstrated. Southern Republicanism is a constrained
political movement challenged and slowed at all levels below
the presidency by inertial institutional and structural
forces. Southern Republicans made some electoral gains over
the 1966-1988 period, but progress is not steady and is
moving at "glacial" speed. Progress comes in fits and
starts, a surge and decline pattern where the gains of one
or several elections, or in one or several states, are

Table 4.27
Percentage of Elections Won by Republicans, by State,
1966-1988
Governor and
U.S. Senate
House of
Representatives
State
Legislature
Down-
Ticket
Deep South
Alabama
13
37
5
0
Georgia
7
13
14
0
Louisiana
7
23
7
2
Mississippi
21
27
4
0
South Carolina
43
32
14
2
Rim South
Arkansas
17
31
5
3
Florida
36
32
32
6
North Carolina
50
29
20
2
Tennessee
50
40
39
0
Texas
43
20
18
0
Virginia
50
58
23
18
Note: House of Representatives and State Legislature figures are mean percentages of
seats won over 1966-1988. Figures in Down-Ticket column are constitutional offices
independently elected in statewide partisan elections excluding Governor, multimember
commissions, and judicial positions.
140

141
offset by losses in the following elections or other
Southern states.
Democrats have held on tenaciously to their solid
majorities. Incumbent Democrats have dominated U.S. Senate,
congressional, and gubernatorial elections. Most of the
GOP's wins have come from a small number of incumbents who
have remained in office over long periods of time and in
elections where the black/white voting coalition broke down.
Southern Republicans have gained congressional seats, but
its wins are primarily confined to suburban and small-town
districts. Republican gubernatorial candidates have had
limited success and winners have been unable to capitalize
on their incumbency status. Democrats have all too often
turned GOP officeholders out after a single term. The
"top-down" strategy with priority placed on the higher
level, more visible offices, has left the GOP holding few
down-ticket offices and has denied the party's training
ground of lower-level offices vital to a developing party in
need of experienced candidates for higher office. In the
next chapter, constraints on Republican growth will be
examined in detail.
Notes
'Republicans won the presidency in 1956, 1968, 1972,
1980, 1984, and 1988. Democrats won the presidency and
controlled Congress in 1960, 1964, and 1976.
Southern Republican senators in 1972 were Baker and
Brock (Tennessee), Gurney (Florida), Helms (North Carolina),

142
Scott (Virginia), Thurmond (South Carolina), and Tower
(Texas).
3See Lamis (1984 chapter 3) for a broader view of
Republican electoral decline in the South between 1972 and
1978. Lamis places emphasis on the abatement of the race
issue and the formation of black/white Democratic voting
coalitions.
4Georgia elected Mack Mattingly with 50.9 percent of
the vote. The incumbent, Herman Talmadge, suffered through
a campaign fund scandal, a divorce, and a bout with
alcoholism just prior to the election. Alabama elected
Jeremiah Denton with 50.2 percent of the vote.
5Carter carried his home state of Georgia with
56 percent of the vote. Three Rim South states gave Reagan
substantial margins (Florida, 56 to 39 percent; Texas, 55 to
41 percent; and Virginia, 53 to 40 percent). The remainder
of the South gave Reagan narrow margins of 2 percent or
less. Carter won 35 percent of the Southern white vote.
6Both Thad Cochran and Trent Lott were first elected to
the House of Representatives in the Nixon landslide of 1972.
The two were the only GOP congressional candidates elected
in the state.
7Cochran won a U.S. Senate seat with 45 percent of the
vote when a black independent party candidate received
23 percent of the vote, thus weakening the potential
Democratic vote. Cochran has been considered unbeatable
since his first election.
8For example, it is not common for Republican
candidates for high office to receive votes in the teens.
In Arkansas's 1976 gubernatorial election, the GOP candidate
received 17 percent of the vote. In congressional elections
in Arkansas in 1986 and 1988 two GOP candidates received 15
and 17 percent of the total vote. Even in Florida, where
the GOP has developed rapidly since the 1960s, the third
congressional district GOP candidate in 1982 received
16 percent of the two-party vote. Georgia's 1978
gubernatorial candidate received 19 percent of the vote and
the Republican candidate for U.S. Senate the same year
gained 17 percent of the vote. Each of the Deep South
states has experienced elections for Congress, Senate, or
governor over the past two decades where GOP candidates
received a proportion of the votes in the teens or low
twenties.

143
Republicans did not hold more than two of Georgia's
ten congressional seats between 1964 and 1988.
10Georgia's one-term congressman Howard "Bo" Callaway
opposed Democrat Lester Maddox in the 1966 gubernatorial
race. Callaway received a plurality of the total vote and a
majority of the two-party vote. Independent write-in
candidate former governor Ellis Arnall received
approximately 7 percent of the vote, denying Callaway or
Maddox a majority. The election was determined by the
Democratically controlled Georgia Legislature, which chose
Maddox. Georgia has not elected a Republican governor since
Reconstruction, nor has any GOP gubernatorial candidate come
as near to election as Callaway. Mississippi did not elect
a Republican governor between Reconstruction and 1988.
uIn the mid-1980s, South Carolina joined most other
Southern states which had recently revised their
constitutions allowing incumbent governors to run for
reelection.
‘Republicans have not been very influential in the Deep
South states. In the Rim South, Florida Republican state
senators have been elected in sufficient numbers to allow
coalitions with conservative Democratic senators seeking
control of that chamber. The Republican's reward has been
the chairmanship of several influential committees.
13The eight Republican down-ticket election winners
between 1960 and 1987 were Maurice Britt, Lieutenant
Governor of Arkansas in 1966 and 1968; John Dalton,
Lieutenant Governor of Virginia in 1973; Paula Hawkins,
Florida Public Service Commissioner in 1972 and 1976;
Marshall Coleman, Attorney General for Virginia, in 1977;
Bryan Patrick, Commissioner of Agriculture in South Carolina
in 1978; and Paul Hardy, Lieutenant Governor in Louisiana in
1987. Table 4.26 shows the success Southern Republicans
have had in down-ticket elections, 1986-1989.

CHAPTER 5
A CONSTRAINED REPUBLICAN DEVELOPMENT:
STRUCTURAL BARRIERS
This chapter draws on the data in Chapter 4. Specific
forces impeding Southern Republican growth are identified.
Differences in levels of constraint between the subregions
are illustrated. The electoral limitations revealed in the
data are not unique to Southern politics, but are of
particular significance in the South, and, more
specifically, the Deep South, where constraints have been
the strongest and where the GOP is the weakest. The data
indicate the Southern GOP has made progress in acquiring
elective office. Nevertheless, Republican electoral
development has been limited and the goal of being a fully
competitive political party has not been achieved.
Significant gains have been confined to a limited number of
levels of electoral office and geographical areas. A
discussion of Republican success and growth appears less
appropriate than a query as to why the Southern GOP has not
done better. The data reveal specific influences
constraining GOP development. Chapter 5 identifies
institutional and constructural constraints drawn from the
electoral data. This chapter draws on the original data
144

from chapter 4 as well as data and analysis compiled in
previous research.
145
Chapter 4 demonstrated that Republican development has
been limited and from the top down. While being successful
at the presidential level, the GOP has had much less success
at the congressional and state level. Too many offices have
gone unchallenged. Where victory was uncertain Republicans,
too, often failed to contest elections, challenge
incumbents' records, and gain campaign experience for future
races. Black support in tandem with sheer large numbers of
Democrats buoyed by years of strong psychological attachment
to the Democratic party and a highly limited number of
experienced opposition candidates amount to a nearly
insurmountable obstacle for the GOP in many areas of the
South.
The electoral analysis revealed continued Democratic
party dominance, a constrained Republican party, and a
limited two-party system. The results indicate differences
in the level of GOP success between the two subregions.
Republican development is slower and more limited in the
Deep South than in the Rim South, although institutional and
structural barriers effect both regions. This chapter draws
on the original data from Chapter 4 as well as data compiled
by others to formulate testable hypotheses explaining the
limitations of Southern GOP electoral development.

146
Incumbency
Unseating a Southern incumbent is a most difficult task
for a Republican challenger. In addition to the large
proportion of Democratic incumbents present in the elections
data shown in chapter 4, other research has documented the
influence of incumbency in Southern elections (Black and
Black 1987; Lamis 1984; Moody 1988; Prysby 1989). Alexander
Lamis (1984) found incumbency, Democratic party allegiance,
and dominance of local offices frightened off potential
Republican challengers. A recent newspaper headline told
the story in Florida: "Graham Scaring Off Fresh GOP Faces"
("Graham Scaring Off . . ." April 27, 1992, p. 10A). The
incumbent Senator is not unique, as indicated by the high
number of uncontested incumbents in the South. Table 5.1
indicates the strength of incumbency in Southern
congressional elections.
Gregory Thielman's (1988) figures indicate that while
the percentage of incumbent wins is dominated by the
Democrats, officeholders of both parties enjoy an incumbency
advantage. Equally important is the total number of wins by
each party. The large number of Democratic incumbents
perpetuates Democratic dominance. Democratic incumbents
were present in 78 percent of the races involving an
incumbent. This contrasts with the presence of Republican
incumbents in 22 percent of the races involving incumbents.

147
Table 5.1
Incumbency and Wins in Southern Congressional
Races, 1956-1986
Incumbent Party
Won
Lost
Percentage
N
Democrats
1142
21
98.1
1163
Republicans
298
23
92.8
321
Source: Gregory S. Thielmann, "Southern Congressional
Elections in the Post-War." Paper presented at the annual
meeting of the Southern Political Science Association,
Atlanta, 1988.

148
In a more recent study, one reflecting the influence of
a "post-civil-rights era" and the Reagan presidency, Charles
Prysby (1989) calculated the data shown in table 5.2.
The advantages of Democratic incumbency are not
confined to congressional races. Black and Black (1987)
documented the advantage for sitting senators and governors
as well. Table 5.3 shows the difficulty a Southern GOP
senatorial and gubernatorial candidates encountered by
office and type of election.
Republicans were able to capture 10 percent of the
Senate seats and only 6 percent of the gubernatorial seats
held by Democratic incumbents. Four Democratic senators
were unseated, but only one Democratic governor was upset by
a Republican candidate. Republican senators have been
returned to office at a high rate, but only two of seven
Republican governors have retained their offices (Black and
Black 1987). With conservative Democratic senators running
in one-half of the Senate races, Republicans had little
chance of unseating them. The Republicans' best chances for
election came in the races for Governor, where 64 percent of
the races were for open seats. Republicans were able to win
less than one-third of these contests. Even the open seat
advantage for the GOP candidates was removed between 1966
and 1984 and nine Southern states amended their
constitutions to allow governors to serve a second
consecutive four-year term (1987).

Table 5.2
Southern Congressional Election Results by Seat
Category, 1976-1988
Year
Seat Category
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
Republican incumbents
% seats won by Republicans
96.3
96.2
100
81.8
100
91.9
89.5
(N)
(27)
(27)
(28)
(33)
(30)
(37)
(38)
Republican seat gain
-1
-1
0
-6
0
-3
-4
Republican open seats
% seats won by Republicans
0.0
50.0
100
80.0
83.0
67.7
50.0
(N)
(1)
(2)
(2)
(5)
(6)
(6)
(4)
Republican seat gain
-1
-1
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
Democratic open seats
% seats won by Republicans
8.3
23.5
42.9
12.5
33.3
16.7
50.0
(N)
(12)
(17)
(7)
(8)
(3)
(6)
(4)
Republican seat gain
1
4
3
1
1
1
2
Democratic incumbents
% seats won by Republicans
0.0
1.6
8.5
0.0
9.1
0.0
0.0
(N)
(68)
(63)
(71)
(62)
(77)
(67)
(69)
Republican seat gain
0
1
6
0
7
0
0

Table 5-2—Continued
Year
Seat Category
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
New seats
% seats won by Republicans
(N)
Republican seat gain
Net Republican seat gain
-1
3
9
25.0
(8)
2
-4
7
-4
-4
Source: Charles Prysby, "Congressional Elections in the American South: Changing
Patterns of Electoral Competition, 1974-1988. Paper presented at the annual meeting
of the Southern Political Science Association Meeting, Memphis, 1989.
Note: Only seat gains and losses in general election (or in the Louisiana open
primary) are included here. During this time period, six seat switches (four to the
Republican, two to the Democratic) took place between general elections due to
incumbents switching parties and/or special elections.

151
Table 5.3
Southern Republicanism in Context: Percentage
of Republican Victories by Office and Type
of Election, 1965-1985
Type of Election
Senators
Governors
Democratic incumbent
10
(51)a
6
(25)
Open seat
38
(31)
30
(64)
Republican incumbent
93
(18)
29
(11)
Totals
34
(100)
24
(100)
Source: Earl Black and Merle Black, Politics and Society in
the South (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1987) ,
table 13.2.
a Figures in parentheses report the percentage distribution
of all elections.

152
Black and Black concluded that Democrats nearly closed
the door on Republican chances to win the highest state
office, one comparatively isolated from national political
influences, while capitalizing on the power of incumbency to
protect Senate seats against Republican candidates buoyed by
pro-Republican national influences (1987). Black and Black
demonstrated the strength of incumbency in the South and its
relative influence in the subregions of the South. (See
table 5.4.)
Incumbency is not limited to higher-level offices, but
rather is a strong influence on the outcome of elections at
all levels of Southern politics.
Keith E. Hamm and David M. Olson (1987) found
increasing levels of state legislative incumbents seeking
reelection and winning between 1982 and 1986 in a five-state
study. Similar findings were reported by Bradley Moody
(1988) in a study of Alabama state senate and house races.
Moody documented a trend toward state legislative
officeholders seeking reelection and a declining number who
were defeated. The incumbency factor, in the present study
and that of others, for the Deep South reflects the
prominence of one element of the strong Democratic party
dominance that prevails in the heart of the South today.1
Incumbency is only one variable contributing to Democratic
dominance. To receive the advantages of incumbency one must
have sufficient support to win office initially. Party

153
Table 5.4
Southern Republicanism in Subregional Context:
Percentage of Republican Victories by Type of
Election and Subregion, 1965-1985
Type of Election
Rim South
Deep South
Senator
Governor
Senator
Governor
Democratic incumbent
20
10
4
0
Open seat
44
45
25
11
Republican incumbent
89
33
100
0
Totals
45
34
22
8
Source: Earl Black and Merle Black, Politics and Society in
the South (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1987),
table 13.3.

154
strength in a region is another important element in gaining
and holding office.2
Traditional Democratic Party Strength
Democratic party allegiance is the backbone of the
Democratic dominance in the Deep South. All students of
Southern politics are familiar with the expression
"yellow-dog Democrat." These are Southerners holding the
strongest attachment to the Democratic party, one often
developed and reinforced through years of repetitive voting
for Democratic candidates. Many Southern whites have
deserted the Democratic party at the presidential level, but
Democrats maintain a strong hold on elective offices below
the highest level. Black and Black (1987) calculated the
electoral strength of Southern Republicans during the
twenty-year period following the passage of the Voting
Rights Act of 1965. Table 5.5 indicates Republican
successes below the presidential level while defining the
electoral differences between the subregions of the South.
The summary figures show the Deep South trailing the
Rim South in levels of Republican party development by a
large margin. South Carolina is the only Deep South state
approaching the overall level of Republicanism achieved in
the Rim South. South Carolina is the most Republican of the
Deep South states exceeding the levels achieved by

Table 5.5
Southern Republicanism after Federal Intervention:
Percentage of Republican Victories for Selected Offices,
1965-1985, by State, Subregion, and Region
Percentage
of Republican
Victories
State
Political Unit
President
Senator
Governor
Legislator"
Virginia
100
50
50
22
Tennessee
80
57
60
39
North Carolina
80
57
40
18
South Carolina
80
50
20
12
Texas
60
57
14
14
Florida
80
33
20
29
Arkansas
60
0
30
4
Mississippi
60
29
0
3
Louisiana
60
0
20
5
Alabama
60
13
0
3
Georgia
40
14
0
13
Deep South
60
22
8
8
Peripheral South
77
43
34
21
South
69
33
24
14
Source: Earl Black and Merle Black, Politics and Society in the South (Cambridge,
MA: Harvard University Press, 1987), table 14.5.
* For state legislators the figure is the average percentage of Republican state
legislators elected to the 1966-1984 legislatures.
155

156
Republicans in Rim South Arkansas and Texas. The Deep South
states and Arkansas continue to be dominated by the
Democrats at all levels below the Presidency.
Lamis (1984) found evidence of Democratic party
allegiance throughout the South. Using interviews and
county-level voting records, Lamis cites party allegiance as
a major factor in continued Democratic dominance in the
mid-1970s. As the race issue subsided, the pull of
traditional party ties drew defectors back to the party as
much as economic-class reasons (1984). Traditional
Democratic party strength appears to have been strongest in
small towns and rural areas during the post-civil-rights
era.
Lamis quoted one Arkansas political observer,
"Tradition is important to rural people. They are looking
for ways to stay with the Democratic party; they have to be
run off" (1984, p. 34). Jimmy Carter, while Governor of
Georgia in 1973, referred to election trends that showed "a
very detectable reservoir of Democratic party allegiance
among people who have weathered this aberration toward the
Republican party based on the race issue and who have now
come back to the Democratic party as their permanent home"
(p. 35). Experienced Democratic candidates were able to
appeal successfully to the historical allegiance of Southern
Democrats as the race issue abated. Tables 5.6, 5.7, and

157
Table 5.6
Southern States Classified According to Degree
of Interparty Competition, 1956-1970
One-Party
Democratic
Modified
One-Party
Democratic
Two-Party
Louisiana
(.9877)
North Carolina
(.8332)
Alabama
( .9685)
Virginia
(.8235)
—
Mississippi
(.9292)
Florida
(.8052)
—
South Carolina
(.9132)
Texas
(.9132)
Georgia
(.9080)
Arkansas
(.8850)
Source: From Herbert Jacob and Kenneth N. Vines, Politics
in the American States: A Comparative Analysis. 2nd ed.
(Boston: Little, Brown, 1983), p. 87.

158
Table 5.7
Southern States Classified According to Degree
of Interparty Competition, 1974-1980
One-Party
Democratic
Modified
One-Party
Democratic
Two-Party
Alabama
( .9438)
South Carolina
(.8034)
Georgia
(.8849)
Texas
(.7993)
—
Louisiana
(.8762)
Florida
(.7524)
—
Mississippi
(.8679)
Virginia
(.7162)
—
Arkansas
North Carolina
(.8630)
(.8555)
Tennessee
(.6648)
Source: John F. Bibby, Cornelius P. Cotter, James
L. Gibson, and Robert J. Huckshorn, "Parties in State
Politics," in Virginia Gray, Herbert Jacob, and
Kenneth Vines (eds.), Politics in the American States. 4th
ed. (Boston: Little, Brown,1983), table 3.3, p. 66.

159
Table 5.8
Southern States Classified According to Degree
of Interparty Competition, 1981-1988
One-Party
Democratic
Modified
One-Party
Democratic
Two-Party
Mississippi (.86)
Alabama
(.84)
Tennessee (.64)
Louisiana
(.81)
Arkansas
(.80)
South Carolina
(.79)
Georgia
(.76)
Texas
(.76)
Virginia
(.74)
Florida
(.74)
North Carolina
(.70)
Source: John F. Bibby, Cornelius P. Cotter, James
L. Gibson, and Robert J. Huckshorn, "Parties in State
Politics," in Virginia Gray, Herbert Jacob, and Robert
B. Albritton (eds.), Politics in the American States. 5th
ed. (Glenview, IL: Scott, Foresman/Little Brown Higher
Education, 1990), table 3.3, p. 92.

160
5.8 indicate the strong Democrat hold on elective office at
the state level, 1956-1988.
The Ranney Scale for 1956-1970 shows all of the Deep
South states in the one-party Democratic column. Rim South
states Arkansas, Florida, and Texas were also one-party
Democratic states. Table 5.7 shows updated figures for the
1974-1980 period. Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi,
and Arkansas remain one-party Democratic. North Carolina
rejoins the one-party Democratic column. South Carolina and
Texas become modified one-party Democratic. No Southern
state rises to the level of two-party status.
Table 5.8 reflects a recent update by Bibby et al.
(1990). Mississippi is the only one-party Democratic state
in the South for the 1981-1988 period. All of the other
Southern states, except Tennessee, were ranked in the
modified one-party Democratic column. Tennessee is the only
Southern state to achieve two-party status.
Although the South is no longer a one-party region, the
Ranney Scale clearly shows the persistence of Democratic
loyalty. The persistence of Democratic loyalty and
tradition is felt not only at the state office level, but
right down to the county level.
Typical of the belief in Democratic dominance is a
statement by Shirley Corbett, the only elected Republican
official in Florence County, South Carolina: "It is still a
handicap to run as a Republican out here" (Brownstein 1986,

161
p. 2229) A Florence businessman and Republican, Rick Putnam
expressed the consensus of a group at the opening of the
Florence County Republican Headquarters in 1986: "If you
want to get into office, you have to run as a Democrat"
(p. 2229). In Louisiana Jay Stone, a former director of the
state Republican party, admitted the party is still years
away from being a strong competitor. "If all things are
equal, they'll vote for a Democrat. . . . It's ingrained to
be a Democrat in Louisiana" (Lamis 1990, p. 366). And, it
is not only Deep South Republicans that face a strong
Democratic party tradition.
The chairman of the Tennessee Republican party wrote in
1988, "[in] virtually every race that we have won statewide
there has been a split in the Democrat party. As a matter
of fact, a good Democrat will defeat a good Republican
statewide in every Tennessee race and that has been
historical and still is." He went on to say, "In Tennessee
there are still thousands of people whose parents and
grandparents and great grandparents were Democrats and they
wouldn't vote for Jesus Christ if he ran on the Republican
ticket." He continued, "You start with all the black votes
plus the yellow-dog Democrats, it's pretty hard to overcome"
(Chairman of the Tennessee Republican Party, personal
correspondence, April 22, 1988).
The electoral data in chapter 4 demonstrate the strong
support for Democratic party candidates in the South.

162
Table 4.27 shows a strong Democratic party tradition at all
levels below the Presidency. There is a particularly strong
Democratic preference in the Deep South and the preference
grows as the electoral levels descend from U.S. Senate and
through down-ticket races.
The Republicans have made their largest gains in
U.S. Senate elections. Longtime GOP incumbents in South
Carolina, Tennessee, and Texas were joined in 1972 by newly
elected Republicans who also were subsequently reelected, at
least through 1988. The election of four additional GOP
senators from Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina
in 1980 and a fifth from Virginia in 1982 gave the
Republicans one-half of Southern Senate seats. Grand Old
Party Senate strength suffered a heavy loss in 1986 when the
four new senators elected in 1980 were defeated in their
first reelection attempt. The GOP held less than one-third
of the Southern senate seats in 1988, but had taken the
second seat in Mississippi.3
The Democratic party has dominated Southern
gubernatorial elections. Over the twenty-two-year period,
Republicans won the governor's office in the Deep South only
four times in three states--once in Alabama and Louisiana
and twice in South Carolina. Three of the four GOP
victories came with unusual election circumstances. The
mean GOP vote was less than 35 percent over the entire
period. Through 1988 Georgia and Mississippi never elected

163
a Republican governor. Republicans defeated a sitting
Democratic governor only twice in the 1966-1988 period. The
GOP did not hold a majority of Southern state houses at any
time between 1966-1988. The Democrats have not prevailed as
frequently in the Rim South.
Each of the Border South states has elected a
Republican governor more than once.4 Virginia elected a
Republican in 60 percent of the races since 1966, and North
Carolina and Tennessee chose the GOP candidate in one-half
of the races. Arkansas, Florida, and Texas selected the
Republican nominee in approximately one-third or less of the
elections. Over the 1966-1988 period, the Rim South has
given GOP nominees approximately 44 percent of the vote in
gubernatorial elections. Republican strength declines as
the level of election descends.
No Southern legislature had a majority of Republican
members. The party's growth has been steady, but very slow.
Only South Carolina in the Deep South has elected a
sufficient number of Republicans to allow the GOP to be an
influence in state legislative politics. In the Rim South
Tennessee's GOP continued to play a prominent role at the
state level, and since the mid-1980s Florida and Texas have
made significant gains and now rival Tennessee as the
Southern state with the largest proportion of GOP members.
Southern Republicans hold a minuscule proportion of
down-ticket offices in the South, and several wins between

164
1986 and 1989 have done little to weaken Democratic party
strength across the region. The strong Democratic voting
behavior across election levels while the Republicans held
the Presidency is a testimony to traditional Democratic
party strength. It is frustrating to Republicans that
Democratic congressional candidates could capture
seventy-three Southern districts, while the Democratic
presidential nominee could carry only seven in 1984.
Southern Democrats practice self-preservation by
successfully skirting the national party's identity.5
Southern Republicans are well aware of the traditional
Democratic party strength. Representative W. Henson Moore,
Republican Senate candidate in 1986 in Louisiana, remarked
during a handshaking session at a local mall, "I'm proud to
be a Republican in Washington, but I don't push the party
thing here because that would be unproductive in a state
where 13 perent of the voters are registered as Republican"
(Cohen 1986, p. 2225). Moore's campaign had Democratic and
Republican co-chairmen in each of the state's 64 parishes.
"Henson Moore does not run away from or apologize for his
party, but he cannot get Democratic votes by throwing it in
their faces that he is Republican" (p. 2225).
Republican Senator Mack Mattingly, seeking reelection
in 1986, asked Georgians to vote on the basis of ideology,
not party loyalty. In contrast to the Republicans,
Terry Sanford in North Carolina's Senate race in the same

165
year, credits his success to a heritage in North Carolina
that he could use to his advantage. "I campaigned under the
auspices of the local and state Democratic party. My
campaign tapped into that Democratic Heritage and struck a
resonant tone" (Overby 1989, p. 18). All five of the
Democrats running for U.S. Senate in 1986 had strong ties to
their respective states and to the Democratic party
organization in their respective state (1989). Their local
and state ties were relied upon to offset the huge sums of
money and national party support given the GOP candidates.
The Black Vote
The potential and actual influence of the black vote is
of particular concern to students of Southern politics
because of the large proportions of the Deep South
population who are black. Blacks have demonstrated a strong
attachment to the Democratic party, and have given Southern
Democrats a high level of electoral support since the
Goldwater campaign of 1964. Passage of the Voting Rights
Act of 1965 and voter registration and mobilization drives
of the 1960s gave impetus to a political force that has
aided Democratic candidates and acted as a constraint on
development of the Republican party and two-party politics
in the South (Bullock 1988; Lamis 1990; Petrocik 1987).
Jeffery Cohen, Patrick Cotter, and Phillip Coulter (1983)
found black participation in Alabama increasing dramatically

166
between 1961 and 1981. The gap between the races was
considered "narrow" by the authors. Blacks have become an
integral element in Southern politics and are now courted
(Danigelis 1977; Olsen 1970; Shingles 1981; Terchek 1980).
Terchek (1980) found increasing rates of black registration
and voting.6
Table 5.9 shows the level of black registration in the
South. The entrance of Southern blacks into the political
arena has had a dramatic effect on both the Democratic and
Republican parties. Black voters did not enter the
electorate evenly divided in partisan attachment.
Table 5.10 shows the partisan identification for Southern
blacks, 1964-1984.
Cooling of the race issue in the 1970s allowed
formation of black-white Democratic coalitions throughout
the South, something that could not have taken place during
the heated and confrontational days of the 1960s. As early
as 1970 white Democrats realized the potential of a
black-white voter coalition. (See table 5.11.)
In gubernatorial races Jimmy Carter in Georgia and
William Winter in Mississippi went beyond recruiting of
blacks to form election coalitions that easily overpowered
Republican opposition. Since the 1970s urban-rural and
black-white coalitions have made possible the election of
such figures as Sam Nunn and Wyche Fowler to the U.S. Senate
in Georgia. Mark White in Texas, Ray Mabus in Mississippi,

167
Table 5.9
Black Voter Registration in the South, 1964-1984
Estimated Percentage of Voting-Age Blacks Registered
State
1964
1968
1971
1976
1980
1984
1986
Alabama
23
57
55
58
58
74
69
Georgia
44
56
64
75
52
58
53
Louisiana
32
59
57
63
61
66
61
Mississippi
7
59
59
60
64
77
71
South Carolina
39
51
46
57
56
59
53
Arkansas
49
68
81
94
60
67
58
Florida
64
62
53
61
61
63
58
North Carolina
47
55
44
55
55
65
58
Tennessee
69
73
66
66
67
70
65
Texas
58
83
68
65
55
72
68
Virginia
46
58
52
55
54
62
56
South
43
62
59
63
58
66
51
Source: Adapted from Harold W. Stanley, Voter Mobilization and the
Politics of Race (New York: Praeger, 1987), p. 97 (table 15). The 1986
percentages from the 1990 Census, Section 8, Elections, table 441:
Voter Registration in 11 Southern States by Race: 1980-1986, p. 264.
Note: The 1976 percentages for Mississippi are actually for 1975.
Voting-age population includes 18-years old and above for Georgia in all
years and for all states in 1971 and afterward. The 1968 percentages
are based on 1960 census data.

168
Table 5.10
Partisan Division of Black Southerners, 1964-1984
Democrat
Independent
Republican
Apolitical
(N)
1964
81
9
4
7
(195)
1968
93
3
2
2
(130)
1972
73
13
12
2
(142)
1976
81
11
7
2
(294)
1980
82
7
8
3
(156)
1984
75
13
10
2
(137)
Source: Adapted from Harold W. Stanley, Voter Mobilization and the
Politics of Race (New York: Praeger, 1987), table 16, p. 107.
Note: Weak and strong partisans as well as independents who lean toward
a party are counted as partisans. The apolitical category also includes
those who claim a partisan tie to a party other than the Democratic or
Republican. Such individuals never constituted more than 1 percent of
Southern blacks.

169
Table 5.11
Southern Presidential Turnout by Race,
1964-1984
Percent White Percent Black
Turnout (N) Turnout (N)
1964
67
(795)
52
(190)
1968
67
(564)
63
(112)
1972
62
(479)
59
(124)
1976
65
(988)
58
(249)
1980
69
(341)
69
( 70)
1984
66
(450)
65
(122)
Source: Adapted from Harold W. Stanley, Voter Mobilization
and the Politics of Race (New York: Praeger, 1987),
table 25, p. 155.

170
Bob Graham in Florida, and Douglas Wilder in Virginia were
all elected governor with the support of black voters. Even
George Wallace in Alabama and John Stennis in Mississippi
won with the support of black-white coalitions in 1982
(Heyman and Scher 1988).7 In the 1987 Mississippi
gubernatorial race, Ray Mabus received only about 40 percent
of the white vote, but was elected in one of the closest
gubernatorial races in Mississippi history. Mabus received
at least 90 percent of the black vote (Parker 1990). These
are just a few of many Southern Democrats elected by the
black-white Democratic voting coalition. Lamis (1984)
documented many examples of the success of the coalition in
all Southern states and the results where the coalition
breaks down (Lamis 1990). Black-white coalitions have drawn
attention at the state level, but been effective at the
local level also.
Richard Arrington of Birmingham and Kathy Whitmire of
Houston conducted successful campaigns for Mayor with the
aid of black-white coalitions (Scher 1992). A large voting
block of Southern blacks cooperating with Southern whites
tied to the Democratic party by traditional Democratic party
allegiance provides a nearly insurmountable election
obstacle for Southern Republican candidates in the Deep
South states at all levels of electoral politics.
Republican candidates in a Deep South statewide race
who cannot successfully appeal to black voters begin the

171
campaign with a deficit of approximately 20 percent
(Petrocik 1987). Republicans cannot afford to ignore the
millions of black voters who can make the difference between
winning and losing elections. Republicans have offered
blacks little incentive for their support since 1964, and
have, in fact, more often than not alienated most black
voters. The large, active black electorate in the South is
likely to remain heavily Democratic for the foreseeable
future and continue to provide the margin of victory in many
elections.
With a strong black vote, Southern Democrats need only
capture 35-40 percent of the white vote to insure a
Democratic win.8 Exit polls of the 1986 Southern senate
races found whites voting 61 to 38 percent for Denton in
Alabama, 59 to 39 percent for Mattingly in Georgia, 60 to