Citation
The effects of hypnotic suggestion on response to subliminal auditory cues

Material Information

Title:
The effects of hypnotic suggestion on response to subliminal auditory cues
Creator:
Sloan, Virginia W
Publication Date:
Language:
English
Physical Description:
xv, 341 leaves : ill. ; 29 cm.

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Auditory perception ( jstor )
Cognitive psychology ( jstor )
Hypnosis ( jstor )
Hypnotic susceptibility ( jstor )
Hypnotics ( jstor )
Memory ( jstor )
Mental stimulation ( jstor )
Psychology ( jstor )
Subliminal perception ( jstor )
Unconscious mind ( jstor )
Genre:
bibliography ( marcgt )
theses ( marcgt )
non-fiction ( marcgt )

Notes

Thesis:
Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Florida, 1995.
Bibliography:
Includes bibliographical references (leaves 309-340).
General Note:
Typescript.
General Note:
Vita.
Statement of Responsibility:
by Virginia W. Sloan.

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Holding Location:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
Copyright [name of dissertation author]. Permission granted to the University of Florida to digitize, archive and distribute this item for non-profit research and educational purposes. Any reuse of this item in excess of fair use or other copyright exemptions requires permission of the copyright holder.
Resource Identifier:
002070378 ( ALEPH )
AKQ8645 ( NOTIS )
34381804 ( OCLC )

Downloads

This item has the following downloads:


Full Text












THE EFFECTS
ON RESPONSE TO


OF HYPNOTIC
SUBLIMINAL


SUGGESTION
AUDITORY CUES


VIRGINIA


SLOAN


A DISSERTATION PRESENTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL
OF THE UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT











ACKNOWLEDGMENTS


I would


many


like


people


expr


who


ess


have


my deepest


helped


appreciation


to make


to a few


dissertation


possible.


heartfelt


gratitude


admiration


Dr. Harry


Grater,


patience,


encouragement,


and


gentle


guidance


through


even


most


discouraging portions


of the


task.


indebted


to him


model


which


he has


for


me as


a practicing


psychologist,


implicit


confidence


ability


to follow my


inner


guidance


successfully


through


process


, as well


many


hours


he spent


advi


sing


reading

heart.


my manuscript


would


and

like


endeavoring


express


to bring

my deep a


a smile


appreciation


Jim Morgan


whose experienced counsel


and enthusiasm about


the


subject


hypnosis


unconscious


mind


whose


personal


encouragement


have


been


a great


inspiration


me in


project.


David


Suchman


and


. Robert


Ziller


have


provided


wise


counsel,


friendship,


and


confidence


abiliti


throughout


university


work


, and


deeply thank

appreciation


;f


'ul to

to Dr.


them.


Alan


would


Agresti


also


whose


like


patience


express


, expert


and ability to make


the challenge of


statistical


analysis


more


anncni bl e


has


provided


a solid


rock


uDon


which


could


build


.


&


-----


k









my progress


work


consistently


and


collaboratively


benefit


would


also


like


express


gratitude


Dr. Greg


Neimeyer


whose


subtle


, yet


solid,


support


throughout graduate


school


been


great


value


arriving


the


completion


of thi


project.


And


a special


vote


of thanks


goes


James


Booth,


who


willingly


made


time


lend


expertise


Agresti'


assisting


absence,


with


a valuable


final


examination


contribution whi


ch allowed me


graduate


the


present


time.


Al Glance


is the generous and


trusting


individual


who


lent


audiometer,


although


had


never


met


thereby


study


made


which


possible


most


to design


desired.


and


would


carry


like


type


express


exceptional


debt


gratitude


him


for


favor,


which


once


again


reaffirmed my


faith


in human


kindness


Also


owe


special


vote


thanks


Bob


McPeek,


whose


technical


expertise


and


tirel


ess


efforts created and


, later,


refined the


digital


audio


disks


upon


which


the


study


was


based


gratitude


goes,


additionally


John


Dixon


whose


statistical


expertise


pati


ence


guided


me toward


solutions


to data


analysis


dilemmas


which


would


have


otherwi


exceeded


my capacity


es.


wish


thank


Meli


ssa


Gray


countless


hours


of her









allowed


me the


freedom


progress


toward


this


end.


Denise


Pendexter


Miranda


Monkhorst


also


deserve


heartfelt


thanks


for their


accurate


and good


-humored assistance with


task


of data


collection.


And


lastly,


from


the


bottom


heart


, I must


sing


prai


ses


my family


members


who


have


sacrificed


their


time,


helped


and


borne


with


me in my


trial


and


preoccupations,


believed


importance


my climbing


top


the


mountain.


patient


, loving,


exceptional


husband,


Lou


, my


beloved


parents


, Marjorie


and Harvey


Sloan


, and


incredibly


capable and humanistic


sisters


and brother will


never


know how


big


a part


they


had


in creating


in me the


perseverance,


positivity


and


strength


bring


thi


long


project


successful


conclusion.


And


my children,


Arielle


and


Zeth,


who


have


never


known


life


without


Mom


graduate


school


owe


greatest


strength


, joy,


and


inspiration.


For


the


sustaining


love,


affirmation,


and


support


these


cherished


people


and


the


infinite


resources


the


life


spirit


within


am truly


grateful.
















TABLE


OF CONTENTS


ACKNOWLEDGMENTS


LIST

LIST


OF TABLES

OF FIGURES


xiv


ABSTRACT

CHAPTERS


INTRODUCTION
Theoretical


S S S S S S 1


Frame


work


and


Supporting


Rese


arch


S S S S S S 51


Subliminal
Hypnosis
Statement


Stimulation


S S S S S S S 54


S S S S S S S S S S S S 59


the


Probli


Purpose .
Delimitations


Definition


Terms


S S S SS S S 520


REVIEW


OF THE


Contemporary
Mind .


LITERATURE


Perspectives


S S S S S S S 526


on the


Unconsc


ious


storical


Context


Neuropsychological


S S SS S S S27


Contributions


Theoretical


Perspectives


S S S S S 5 531


Issues


of Definition


and


Terminology


Conclusion


S~~ S S S S 37


Subliminal


Perce


ption


S S S S S S S S 5 538


Subliminality
Subliminal


versus


supraliminal


effects


Subliminality
perception


and


unconscious


Commercially


Help T
Research


-Prepar


apes .
on the


ed Subliminal


Effects


Self


of Auditory


Slbhl iminal


Me~Ssacxi


es 45


) I II I II I i


. 36









Semantic


Me
Af
At
Ps
Be
Dr
Methodo
Subli
Mo
In
Du
Ma
Ba
Ou


mory
fect or
titudes
ychophy
havior
eams an


log
min
del
ten
rat
ski
sel
tco


al
R
fo
I-


Is


v


processing

energy le
or cognit
biological
and habits
d free ass
Factors i
research
r sublimin
of stimul


of su
techni
eval
measure


bl


1mmn


vel
ion
mea


sures


ociations
n Auditory


al
us


al


Seach
earch


stimulus


ques
uation
es


Conclusio
Hypnosis .
Theories
Hypnotic
Process
Hypnotic
Measureme
of Tran
Hypnotic
Percept
Decr
pe


Concl
Crossover
Percepti
Purpose of


n


of Hy
Inves
es
Sugge
nt of
ce
Sugge
ion .
eases
rcept


Augmentat
usion .
Studies:
on .
Present


pnosis .
tigation


Uncon


stability .
Hypnotizability


* .
stion
* .
and
ion
ions


and


cious
cious


and


Depth


Sensory


alterations i

in perception


Hypnosis

Research


and


Subliminal


METHODS .
Subjects
Instruments
Harvard G
Suscept
Long Stan
Auditory


Proce


S
Pos
Beh
dur
Sub
Fir


ch
ess
ora


Randomi;
Trm


* 0 S 0 5
~ ~ ~ ~ 0 0 S, S


. .
roup
ibil
ford
Thre
Audi
ion


1


* .
Sc
ity
St
sho
ome
Que


ale of Hypnotic
, Form A .
ate Scale .
Id Evaluation U
try .
stionnaire .


Observation


Recruitment
passion
zation and B
eatment cond


Form


linding
itions


` ` `


!









RESULTS


Ass


umptions


Testing


of Rese


Base


arch


line
Null


Compari
Hypothe


son
ses


Hypothesis
Hypothesis
Hypothesis
Hypothesis


Hypothe
Hypothe
Hypothe
Hypothe
Hypothe


Summary


* 0 *
* S S S S S S S


SlS


of Findings


* ~ ~ ~ S S S 0 0
* S S 0


Relationship


Scores


of Long


the


Harvard


Stanford


Group


State


Scal


Scal


Hypnotic


Susc


eptibility


Diff


erences


HGSHS


Leg


Crossing


Reanaly


S1s


Without


Borderline


Hypnoti


Subjects


DISCUSSION


Summary


and


Response
Response


Interpre


station


to Sublimina
to Hypnotic


of Findings
Cues .


Suggestion


Plus


Subliminal


Cues


Overall


Susce


Treatment


ptibility


Effects


Effects


Problems


and


Limitations


the Study


Impli


cations


Future


Rese


arch


Conclu


sons


APPENDICES


INFORMED


PRE


CONSENT


-INTERVENTION


BASIC


INFORMATION


FORM .

QUESTIONNAIRE.

FORM .


POST-SESSIO

BEHAVIORAL


QUESTIONNAIRE


OBSERVATION


FORM


DEBRIEFING


SCRIPTS


gF.g5RATON


ONTE


fl1..RRTFNFTN


SCRIPT


S S S S S S S


,


[










LONG


STANFORD


STATE


SCALE


OF HYPNOTIC


DEPTH


AUDITORY


TESTING


RESPONSE


FORMS


PRE-INDUCTION


TALK


ON HYPNOSIS.


PRACTICE


INDUCTION.


SESSION

SESSION


PLUS


TWO

TWO


HANDOUT

SCRIPTS


-SUBLIMINALS


WORD


LISTS.


BASELINE
CONDITION


AND


HYPNOSIS-


288


REFERENCE


LIST


BIOGRAPHICAL


SKETCH















LIST


OF TABLES


Tabi


page


Suceptibility


Level


Tre


atment


Group


Analysis
Group


of Base


line


Auditory


Acuity


Treatment


141


Analysis


of Base


line


Behavioral


Criteria


Treatment


Group


Repeated
Changes


Measures


Analy


Treatment


of Auditory


Acuity


Group


Means


and


Variable


Standard
s at Base


Deviations


line


and


of Auditory


During


Acuity


Intervention


Analysis
Acuity


of Between
Variables


Treatment


ects


on Auditory


Analys


of Between


Behavioral


Treatment


ects


Variables


Means


Variables


Standard


Time


Deviations


of Behavioral


of Intervention


Analysis
Session


of Between


Que


Tre


stionnaire


atment
(PSQ)


Effects
Cognitiv


on Post-
e Variable


Means


Standard


Deviations


of Post


-Session


Questionnaire


Variabi


Analysis


Auditory


Susceptibility


Level


Lcuity
and


Variable


Treatment


Group


Analysis
Suscep


of Behavioral


tibility


Analysis of
t-u -- 4 *


Post


Level


-Session


ttrr~1.% nfl nF


fl


Variable


Treatment


Questionnaire
rnll 1 an^rrn OCu


Collapsed
Group .


(PSQ)
nan h i ,









Analysis


of Supplementary


Questionnaire
Susceptibility


(PSQ)
Level


Post


Variables


Treatment


-Session


Collaps


Group


Means,


Standard


Deviations


, and


Test Stati


stics


Crossing


Measures


, by


Auditory
Effect


Behavioral


Acuity


Variables


Variables


: Summary


: Summary


of Signific


of Signifi


cant


Effects


Cognitive
Effects


Variables


Summary


of Signifi


cant















LIST


OF FIGURES


Figure


Histogram:


Age


of Subjects


HGSHS


Susceptibility


Level


137


Speech D
During

Speech R


ete


action


Threat


Intervention


recognition


should
, by


Thresho


SDT),


Base


Treatment

Id (SRT),


line


Group


Base


and


148


line


and


Word


During


Intervention,


scrimination


Score


Treatment


at 25 dB


Group


(WDS


Baseline


and


During


Intervention,


atment


Group


Word


scrimination


(WDS-15),


at Base


Score


line


at -15 dB S/N


During


Ratio


Intervention,


Treatment


Group


Green


Intervention


section,


, by


Base


Tre


line


atment


Post-


Condition


Green


Reward


Treatment


Selection
Condition


, Post


-Intervention,


SInstances


During


of Leg


Cross


Intervention,


, at Base


Treatment


line


Group


Duration


During


of Crossed


Intervention


Legs


, by


, Bas


Tre


line


atment


and


Group


. Instances


During


of Looking
Intervention


Behind,


, by


at Bas


Treatment


eline


and


Group


4-11


. Response
About


to Indirect
Subliminal M


Ques


tions


messages


, by


(PSQ 1, 2,
Treatment


Condition


x~aae









4-13. Percent
Cues


Responding


, by


That


Treatment


They


Heard


Subliminal


Condition


-14. Identification


(PSQ8),


Subliminal


Treatment


Cues


From


Condition


. Total


Post


-Session


Questionnaire


Score,


Treatment


Condition


4-16


4-17


. Response
(PSQ5)


. Speech


to Subliminal


, by


Treatment


Detection


Collapsed


and


High)


Compound
Condition


Threshold


Susceptibility


and


Treatment


(iSDT)
Level
Group .


Word


Primes


[Adjusted]
(Low-Medium


, by


4-18


. Speech


Recognition


Treatment


G


Susceptibility


Threshold


roup
Leve


(iSRT)


d Collapsed
(Low-Medium


[Adjust


and


High)


. Word


scrimination


[Adjusted],


Level


Score


Collapsed


(Low-Medium


and


at 25 dB


(iWDS


Susceptibility


High)


Tre


atment


Condition


. Word


scrimination


[Adjusted],


Level


Score


Collapsed


(Low-Medium


at -15 dB S/N


Susc


High)


(iWDS


-15)


eptibility


and


Treatment


Condition


4-21


. Green


Selection


Post


-Intervention


(iPEN)


, by


Collapsed


and


High)


Susceptibility
and Treatment


Level


(Low-Medium


Condition


. Green


Reward


(iREWARD)


Selection


, by


(Low-Medium
Condition .


Post


Collapsed


High)


-Intervention


Susc


and


eptibility


Level


Treatment


. Instances
(iLEGS)


of Leg


Crossing


[Adjusted],


Susceptibility
and Treatment


Level


During I
Collapsed


(Low-Medium


intervention

and High)


Condition


. Duration


by
and


of Leg


Collapsed


High)


and


Crossing


Susc


(iLEGSMIN)


eptibility


Treatment


Level


[Adjusted],
(Low-Medium


Condition









4-26.


Response to Indirect
(PSQ 1, 2, &3), by
Level (Low-Medium
Condition .


Questions
Collapsed
and High)


about Subliminals
Susceptibility
and Treatment


4-27.


Percent Who Believed They Were Presented
Subliminal Cues, by Collapsed Susceptibility
Level (Low-Medium and High) and
Treatment Condition .


Percent Who Stated That
Cues, by Collapsed Sus
(Low-Medium and High)
Condition .


Correct Responses
Subliminal Cues
Susceptibility
and Treatment C


They Heard Subliminal
ceptibility Level
and Treatment


on Lists of Possible
(PSQ8), by Collapsed
Level (Low-Medium and
condition .


High)


4-30.


Total Post-Test
Collapsed Sus
and High) and


Score (PSQTOTAL), by
ceptibility Level (Low-Medium
Treatment Condition .


4-31.


Response to
(PSQ5), by
(Low-Mediu
Condition


Subliminal
Collapsed
m and High)


Compound Word
Susceptibility
and Treatment


Primes
Level


4-32.


Hypnosis-Subliminal Group: Comparison
Average LSSS Score at Baseline and
Experimental Intervention .


of
During


4-33.


Hypnoti
Femal


Susceptibility


Sex:


Males


4-28.




4-29.
















Abstract


of Dissertation


sented


Graduate


School


the


University


Requirements


of Florida


Degree


Partial I
of Doctor


Fulfillment of
of Philosophy


the


THE


EFFECTS


OF HYPNOTIC


SUGGESTION


ON RESPONSE


TO SUBLIMINAL


AUDITORY


CUES


Virginia


December


. Sloan

1995


Chairperson:


Major


Dr. Harry


Department


Grater


: Psychology


This


study


investigated


short


-term


cognitive


and


behavioral


response


to subliminal


auditory


cues


impact


that


hypnotic


suggestion


improved


stening


had


upon


response.


The


relationship


hypnotic


susceptibility,


measured


Harvard


Group


Scale


Hypnotic


Susceptibility


: Form


response


subliminal


cues


was


explored


Subliminal


cues


were


presented


through


audiometer


at 25 dB


, masked


40 dB white


noise


One


hundred


thirteen undergraduate volunteers


were randomly a


signed among


three


treatment conditions


hypnosis


plus


subliminal auditory


cues,


subliminal


auditory


cues


only,


repetition-only


control.

ro c nnn a o a


Auditory


tiaEraL


acuity


mo a aiirorl


behavioral


1n -a'.:-


---a


cognitive


- n a


.i ~ IU ii *U- nllE *I3


-1i n+r170nI-i flfl









The group that received only subliminal


cues demonstrated


most


widespread


response


. In


group,


significant


within


-subjects


effects


were


found


on three


four


auditory


acuity


variables


Differences


between


the


subliminal


group


control


were


found


four


auditory


acuity


variabi


, three


five


behavioral


variables


, and


three


five


cognitive


variable


es.


The


subliminal


subliminals


group


cues


-only


that


received


responded


group.


hypnotic


somewhat


Subjects


less


in thi


suggestions


strongly


group


with


than


demonstrated


significant


within-subject


effects


two


four


auditory


acuity


measures


Differences


were


found between


the


hypno


S1S-


subliminals


group


and


the


controls


four


auditory


acuity


variable


five


cognitive


measures


Measures


the


effects


of susceptibility


on subliminal


response


were


limited


small


percentage


susceptibility


subjects


113


scored


below


Thus


valid


comparisons


between


high


low


susceptibility


subgroups


could


not


made.


When


medium


susceptibility


levels


were collapsed


, significant


differences


from


the


high


susceptibility


level


(HGSHS


scores


above


were


found


only


on two


of the


five


cognitive


variable


within


subliminals-only


group.
















CHAPTER


INTRODUCTION


impossible


creativity,


and


unconscious


understand


psychosomatics


- Leon


without


Chertok


human
having


(1981,


behavior,
studied


. 581)


The problem
psychology.


unconscious


-Sigmund


Freud


is the


(1974


problem


[1900],


of
611).


Theoretical


Framework


and


SuDDortincr


Research


conscious


ess


the


meat


human


existence,


merely


tip


mental


iceberg


The


realm


non-


conscious


cognition


has


been


subject


animated


philosophical


scientific and practical


debate


for many years.


Whyte


(1978)


traces


the concept


of the


unconscious


back


to the


time


Descartes


Leibni


1890,


William


James


presented


a series


of arguments


and


again


st the


stence


unconscious


mental


processes


Freud


identify


Bernheim'


demonstrations of post


-hypnotically suggested behavior


in 1889


Breuer'


studi


hysteria


the


early


1900s


the


foundations


theories


of repression and


unconscious ego


defense


mechanisms


matq, a 1 .4.
..


.8- 1~ a


(Edmonston,


-4 a rn tt--


1986;

Ca.-


Stress


& Shevrin,


,rtnancrctn I ati


1969)


*wn nil


*Uf~l 'rni *iS* IT Iu *1* Ul *r -1 1, i* 1 'U 11 1 rfU *~f ft 1L I f I1 t


Ckh











imbuing the


unconscious with


substantial


, mysterious


powers


influence


shape


behavior


through


dreams


defense


mechanisms


, instincts,


wishes,


and


memories


Since


1950s


, the


field


psychology


has


undergone


several


waves


skepticism


(described


well


Greenwald,


1992


during


which


theorists


(stemming


originally


from


behaviorists


the


line


Skinner)


dismi


ssed


the


unconscious


summarily


scientifically


unverifiable


researchers


struggled


to begin


affirming


and


delineating


powers


proce


unconscious.


ssing theoretical


framework


1960s


the


cognition


information-


popularized


cognitive


psychology


once


again


included


both


unconscious


and


conscious


facets


processing,


separated


faculty


attention.


framework


attention


was


viewed


locus


conscious


agency


Cognitive


activation


and


establishment and retrieval


of memory


were conceptualized as


accomplishable


through


both


unconscious


conscious


routes


(Greenwald,


1992


Loftus


& Klinger


, 1992).


last


nature


scientists


quarter


function


down


century,


the


variety


efforts


non-conscious


widely


under


mind


differing


stand


have


avenues


rese


arch.


Among


these


are


subliminal


stimulation


(including


subliminal


psychodynamic


activation


subliminal


semantic











effects),


as well


as the


burgeoning


fields


of neuropsychology


and


neuropsychophysiology


Two


these


areas,


subliminal


stimulation


and


hypnosis


have


been


selected


as the


focus


study.


point


, it


seems


safe


that


general


(though


definitely


unanimous)


consensus


emerged


psychology


throughout


the


world


that


some


unconscious


properties


the


mind


indeed


exist


influence

Chertok,


both

1982;


perception

Caputi,


and


1884;


behavior

Shevrin


(Greenwald,


Dickman


1992;

1980;


Meichenbaum


what


Gilmore,


unconscious


1984;


how


Kihlstrom


"smart"


et al, 1992)


or what


However


limits


are,


how


and


what


extent


governs


behavior


physiological


proce


sses


are still


major questions


for research


exploration


and


dispute.


Terminology


varied


with


research


paradigms


"Implicit


"non


-conscious,


"sub


conscious


"preconscious,


"subception"


and


"perception


without


awareness"


are


terms


which


have


been


favored


one


or more


researcher


as replacements


concept


"unconscious


There

field


little


consensus


differences


abundant


among


these


sentiment,


terms


Whyte


(1978)


very


aptly


observes,


"the


trouble


not


that


they


are











include


the


above-li


sted


concepts.


However,


the


term


"unconscious"


widely


used


throughout


the


field


today


with


broader


application


and


, therefore


will


used


study,


despite


risk of confusion


with


one


of the


more


specific


meanings


given


Freud


, Kihl


strom


and


others


Subliminal


Stimulation


Within


the


area


of subliminal


perception,


one goal


of the


methodological


rigor


which


evolved


over


the


two


decades


has


been


achieve


demonstrable


separation


conscious


influences


from


capacity


ascribed


unconscious.


Problematically


research paradigms have adopted


differing


definitions


of what


unconscious


cognition


Some


selective


attention


, subliminal


psychodynamic


activation,


dichoptic


viewing,


dichotic


listening,


subliminal


affective


conditioning)


have


defined


the


domain


the


unconscious


anyv


cognition


which


outside


attention,


in other words,


which


registered


by the


mind


but


unattended


. This


research


explores


the


level


analy


and


memory


res


idues


produced


such


stimuli.


Other


lines


research


subliminal


semantic


activation


, implicit


memory


perception,


memory


illusions)


have


defined


the


unconscious


more


liberally


coalition


which


cannot











attention


awareness


This


definition


useful


research


the


ways


which


cognition


and


action


are


influenced by


events which


were experienced but not remembered


(Greenwald,


1992).


Since the


1950s


commercial


advertisers


movies


and rock


music


groups


have


aroused


public


interest


the


unconscious


effect

for ir


subliminal


evasion


messages


personal


behavior


privacy


and


Numerous


the


potential


reports


have


reached


the


press


movie


theaters


flashing


subliminal


messages

playing


increase


subliminal


of refreshments


messages


reduce


, department


stores


shoplifting,


companies


using


subliminal


sexual


stimuli


increase


impact


of their


maga


zine


televi


sion


advertisements


. These


sensational


claims


and


public


curiosity


they


provoked


provided


additional


impetus


psychologists


search


answers

In the


the


mid-


relevant


1980s


questions


auditory


(George


subliminal


& Jennings,

technique


1975).

called


"backmasking


" purportedly used by the rock group Judas


convey


satanic


messages


, was


implicated


suicide


two


teenagers


(Loftus


& Klinger


, 1992


At the


time,


there was


little


evidence


available


to support


or deny


validity


these


claims,


but


several


studi


done


since


then


have


failed


support


alleged


ability


process


act


upon











testing


the


mind'


capacity


absorb


respond


subliminal


messages


(Merikle


Skanes,


1992


Swingle


, 1992


Most


the


work


on subliminal


perception


dealt


with


visual


stimuli


. Research


subliminal


perception


initially


approached


investigation


boundary


consciousness


what


registered


outside


them


testing the psychophysiological


limits


of human perception and


trying


to establish


a methodology


which


it could


be agreed


that


the


mind


was


indeed


receiving


messages


which


was


not


consciously


aware.


eesman


and


Merikle


(1984,


1986)


introduced


fundamental


stinction


between


subjective


objective


thresholds


conscious


perception,


which


has


been


adopted


subsequent


experimentation.


The


objective


threshold


was


defined


as a


level


of stimulus


presentation


which


forced


-choice


responding


indicates


no more


than


chance


level


(50%)


accuracy


perception,


whereas


subjective


threshold


level


greater


energy


which


subjects


report


claim)


awareness


stimulus


esence


chance


level


accuracy


A large


volume


of evidence


today


indicates


that


the


body


does


register


stimuli


of which


does


not


have


any


conscious


awareness,


through


visual,


auditory


and


tactil


modes.


Subliminal


processing


simple


stimuli


has


been


reliably


consistently


reported


through


three


sensory











stimuli


presented


the


area


below


the


objective


threshold


and


more


complex


(multiword


multipicture)


stimuli


continue


controversial


(Cheesman


Meriki


, 1984


Fisher


, 1975;


Holender,


1986a,


1986b;


Meriki


& Skanes,


1992


Indeed,


Greenwald


(199


argues


in hi


overview of


research


subliminal


cognition


that


the capacity of


the unconscious mind


analyze


and


process


stimuli


appear


"severely


limited


defying


proposes


researchers


"two-word challenge"

demonstrate that


the


attention


eld,

less


cognition


can


, in


fact,


extract


meaning


from


two-word


more)


sequence


Probably


best


known


of subliminal


research


been subliminal


psychodynamic


activation


(SPA)


spearheaded by


Silverman


(For


a comprehensive review of


these


findings,


refer


to Silverman,


1983,


or Weinberger


Hardaway


, 1990)


. For


most


part,


these


studies


have


involved


subliminal


visual


stimuli


presented


tachi


stoscopically


for periods of


only a


seconds,


eight


4-millisecond


flashes


5-second


interval


Numerous


studi


have


shown


that


certain


psychodynamically


oriented


messages


(most


commonly


"Mommy


are


one


, although


outside


the


realm


reportable


consciousness,


have temporary measurable


effects on behavioral


factors


, such


academic


performance,


anxiety


level,











theoretical


significance


these


findings


with


respect


psychoanalytic


theory


unconscious


processing


has


been


intensely


debated


(Balay


& Shevrin


, 1988;


Balay


et al.,


1989;


Fudin


& Benjamin


, 1991;


Moore,


1989;


Weinberger,


1989)


It has


been


argued


that


the


auditory


mode


of subliminal


communication


is more amenable


to clinical


adaptation


than


visual


because


can


so easily


be reproduced


the


form


portable


attention


audiotape


or refined


does


machinery


not


(Swingle,


require


1992


such


Urban


focused


, 1992


However,


there


still


a great


deal


of disagreement


as to the


comply


exity


and


duration


auditory


messages


which


can


absorbed


subliminally


and


how


frequently


and


rapidly


they


should be


1979;


repeated


Merikle


to present


for what


Skanes,


a clear


1992


stimulus


length


of time


Whether


below


the


(Cacioppo

is more


auditory


Petty,


effective


threshold


intensity


masked


stimulus


below


the


threshold


discriminability


also


unresolved


(Miller


, 1991;


Mitchell


1992


Urban


, 1992,


1993)


As with


visual


stimuli,


appears


that


greater


auditory


effect


stimuli

than t


presented


hose


at a subliminal


presented


level


at a supraliminal


have

level


although


the


reasons


are


not


fully


understood


(Borgeat


1985;


Zenhausern


Hansen,


1974)


. Swingl


(199


presents a


body


of research


indicating


that


subliminal











help


tapes


prepared


commercially


research


purposes


concluded


pl acebo


that


upon


they


the


had


targeted


no therapeutic


behavior


effect


(Merikle


beyond


1988;


that


Mitchell,


1992;


Russell


1991)


Urban


(1992


1993)


argues


convincingly


that


the


field


must


develop


standardized


methodology


, suggesting


that


difficulties


replicating


confirming


ectiveness


subliminal


auditory


stimulation


stem


from


the


milarity


protocols


and


methods,


message


which


was


leaves


presented


unclear


such


whether


way


subliminal


effectively


received


the subject.


Hypnosis


Hypnosis


which


Freud'


bears


the


reputation


Breuer'


attention


being


was


first


vehi


cle


drawn


demonstrations


behavior


which


they


believed


completely


unconsciously


motivated


(Stross


& Shevrin


, 1969)


Procedures


using


hypnotic


trance


and


suggestion


effective medium for


"magically"


promoting mental


and physical


healing originated


in ancient times


(Edmondston,


1986;


Gravitz


& Gerton


, 1984)


Aside


from


impact


on Freud'


theories


unconscious,


research on hypnosi


has al


been


identified


as a major


influence on


the development


of the


psychologies











hypnosis


who


have


utilized


the


human


facility


fluent


hypnotic


communication


with


unconscious


acceptance


suggestion


to motivate


a wide


range


of behavior


(Cheek,


1994;


Erickson


& Rossi,


1981;


Hilgard


, 1986,


1987;


Ros


, 1986)


New


applications


and


techniques


hypnosis


, bearing


ostensible


clinical


validity,


emerge every year


in the medical


and


psychotherapy


literature.


The


same


skeptical


scientific


credibility which has


shaped


the course of


research


subliminal


stimulation


challenged


researchers


hypnosis


to explain


the


basis


clinical


success


(Coe,


1992


Fromm


Shor,


1979;


Gruenewald,


1982


Hilgard


, 1987


Kihlstrom,


1984,


1985,


1987)


. Thus,


one of


two


major tre


recent research


on hypnosis


consists of


studi


evaluating the


effectiveness


hypnosi


treatment


widening


panorama


(Hilgard


of physi


, 1987;


cal,


psychology


Kihlstrom,


1985,


and


1987;


emotional


Rossi,


s-eases


1986)


other


major


trend


focuses


describing


the


hypnotic


experience and documenting scientifically how,


to what extent,


and


under


what


circumstances


operates.


includes


questions


of what


hypnosis


actually


, methods


access


and


documenting


unconscious


proce


sses


, controversy


over


exis


tence


altered


state,


investigation


altered


perception,


amnesia


and


hypermnesia


, questions


depth











1982


Hilgard


1987


Kihlstrom,


1984,


1987


Orne


1977;


Ratke


Spanos,


1981;


Rossi,


1986;


Rossi


Cheek


1988;


Stross


Shevrin,


1968


, 1969


Tart,


1970,


1979)


Central


scientific


explanation


of hypnosis


understanding


what


characters


tics


and


effects


are


essential


hypnosis


Perry


(199


submits


that


the


term


"hypnosi


meaning


excessive


morbid


sleep


anachroni


misnomer which


promotes


misunderstanding


of the


proc


ess


modern


terms.


definition


as a


"trance


state"


been


challenged


Coe,


Barber


, Spanos,


others,


who


propose


that


hypnotic


hyperresponsiveness


suggestion


can


often


be explained


as a mutually-agreed-upon


social


influence


situation,


involving


compliance


expectations,


fantasy,


role-


playing,


role-relevant skills


and transference


(Barber,


1965;


Barber


De Moor,


1972


Coe


1973;


Coe


& Sarbin,


1977


Spanos


Hewitt,


1980;


Sutcliffe,


1961)


Others,


such


Orne


(1977),


Graham


(1977)


Rossi


Cheek


(1988),


dePascali


Penna


(1990)


, point


out


that


there


definitive


evidence


neurochemical


changes


occurring


in the


central


nervous


associated


with


hypnosis


and


other


altered


states


consciousness


constitutes


Other


a unique


evidence


psychological


indicates

state in


that


evolving


hypnosis

processes


that


are


qualitatively


different


from


waking


consciousness


~I











(1973)


and


Perry


(199


recommend


synthesis


the


positions,


phenomena


the "state"

while the


position

"non-st


focusing


:ate"


position


within


-subject


contributes


perspective


on influences


external


the subject


Most


research


suggests


that


under


normal


clini


laboratory conditions,


hypnotic


suggestion alone


not


likely


to induce


an individual


to commit acts


against


which


or she


deep


moral


convictions


(Conn,


1981;


Levitt


et al.,


1972


Udolf


1992


However


how much


power


hypnotic


suggestion has


influence


behavior


outside


conscious


awareness


volition


and


who


has


cense


access


that


power


has


been


subject


of heated


ethical


legal


debates


since


the


early


1980s


(Kihlstrom


, 1984,


1985


, 1987


Scheflin


& Shapiro,


1989;


Sloane


, 1981;


Udolf,


1992


The


experience


involuntarin


ess


known


as the


classic


suggestion


effect,


one


central


characteristic


hypnotic


experience


through


which


unconscious


processes


are


manif


est


and


which


has


been


defined


assessed


standard


susceptibility


sca


(Bowers


et al


1988;


Stross


Shevrin,


1969;


Weitzenhoffer,


1980).

reports


addition,

hypnotic


considerable

hypermnesia


legal


used


debate

uncover


surrounds

criminal


evidence


A number


case


studi


both


the


psychological


and


the


judicial


literature


, report


forgotten


factual











Increase


testimony


false


recollection


unreliable


legal


occurs,


purposes


rendering


(Erdelyi,


such


1988;


Kihlstrom,


1977,


1987;


Sloane


, 1981)


. Another


parameter


duration


post-hypnotic


suggestion


, has


only


been


investigated


a few


studi


Evidence


exists


that


certain


suggestions


can


last


years


some


highly


hypnoti


zable


subjects


, although


curve


responsiveness


seems


to fade


over


time


(Berrigan


et al


1991;


Edwards


, 1963).


From


time


development


Stanford


Scal


Hypnotic


Susceptibility


(Weitzenhoffer


Hilgard,


1959),


hypnotizability


and


factors


affecting


have


been


avidly


explored


and


debated.


In 1987,


Hilgard


concluded


that


now clear that


there


exists a


reasonably


stable


and measurable


hypnotic


talent


under


ordinary


life


situations"


249)


Individual


differences


hypnotizability


have


been


found


be stable


over


, 1974).


intervals


However,


characteristics


make


as long


still u:

a person


as several


resolve

a good


are


subject


years (M

questions


[organ


what


hypnosis


what

what


degree

impact


hypnotizability


either


can


"susceptibility"


learned


or "depth"


improved,


trance,


measured


standardized


sca


, has


on the


outcome


or power


the


trance


experience


. Some


correlates


of hypnotizability


which


have


been


identified


are


absorption,


capacity


vivid











peripheral


stimuli


(Edmonston,


1986;


Kay,


1992


Kihlstrom,


1984,


1987).


Certain


cognitive


factors,


such


motivating


instructions


, positive


expectancy,


and


favorable


information


about


hypnosis


have


been


shown


increase


suggestibility


(Barber


Calverley,


1963


Cronin


1971;


Salzberg


DePiano


, 1979)


. Experience


or specific


training with hypnosis


been


associated


commonly


with


enhancement


hypnotizability


(Bertrand


1993;


Spanos,


1990)


However,


these


factors


appear to


have


only


a mild


impact which


plateaus


over


time


(Talone


et al., 1975),


and


interpretation


experimental


results


still


controversial


(Bates


Brigham,


1990;


Crouse


Kurtz


1984).


Most


the


psychophysiological


and


therapeuti


effects


of hypnosis


seem


to have


their


greatest


impact


and


applicability


subjects


who


are


"highly


hypnotizable


However,


therapy


purposes


there


evidence


that


individuals


who


are


only


modestly


hypnotizable


light


trance


are


capable


using


hypnosis


accomplish


many


relevant


goals


(Hilgard,


1986;


Madrid


& Barnes,


1991;


Rossi


& Cheek,


1988;


Udolf,


1992


Chertok


(1978,


1982


and Rossi


Cheek


(1988)


emphasize


pivotal


role


which


hypnosis


plays


understanding


relationship


between


psychic


biological


aspects


the


unconscious,


permitting


the


creation,


means











hypnotic


suggestion


. One


focus


research


been


apparent


shift


laterality


brain


dominance


some


highly


hypnotizable


subjects


under


hypnosis


(Bakan,


1969;


Carter


Elkins,


1982;


Morgan


1974


Spellacy


Wilkinson,


1987)


use


hypnosis


anesthetic


analgesic


been


widely


explored


beginning


the


1970s


(Hilgard,


1975


Kihistrom


, 1977,


1984,


1987).


the


last


years


more


there


been


naturalistic


expanding


proce


sses


interest


such


in the


psychosomatic


exploration of


medicine


relaxation


response


the


ultradian


healing


response


hypnotic


interventions


immunotherapy


(Benson


et al


1981;


Cheek


1994;


Darby,


1990;


Lydick


1987;


Mindell


1982;


Rossi


& Cheek,


1988


Cheek,


1994).


Among the psychophysiological interactions,


alteration of


sensory


perception


has


been


topic


interest


since


beginning


the


modern


study


hypnosis.


Cases


hypnotically


induced


deafness,


blindness


and


tunnel


sion


aroused


great


curiosity,


part


because


their


apparent


similarity


to hysterical


blindness


or deafness.


In addition,


these


conditions


begged


the


question


of fakery


or malingering


(Bowers,


1976)


. In


last


years,


renewed


interest


t in


the


study


cognition


been


associated


with


gestalt


tradition


which


empha


zes


the


constructive











hypnotic


suggestion


(Black


& Wigan


1961;


Blum,


1975;


Bowers


1976;


Crawford


et al


1979


Graham


Liebowitz


1972


Kay,


1992


Nash


al.,


1987;


Smith


1983;


Spiegel


Barabasz


, 1988)


although


these results


are disputed by


others


(Goldiamond


& Malpass


1961;


Jones


& Spanos,


1982


Wagstaff,


1983)


Some


studi


focusing


"negative


hallucinations


suggested


diminution


tortion


normal


sensory phenomena),


have found


significant differences between


responses


of hypnotized


subjects


and


those


of individual


who


truly


does


have


not


these


actually


sensory


remove


defi


the


cits


reception


, suggesting


of the


that


sensory


hypnosis


signal


but


may


affect


the


subject'


processing


, interpretation,


reporting


signal


(Crawford


et al


1979;


Goldiamond


Malpass,


1961;


Sutcliff


, 1961)


These


findings


are


reviewed


detail


Chapter


summary,


however,


there


consensus


at thi


time


on the


issue


of alterations


in sensory


perception.


Some


evidence


suggests


that


certain


perceptual


proce


sses


are


alterable


hypnosis


and


that


these


effects


correlate


with


susceptibility


. On


the


other


hand,


evidence


from


studi


derived


from


Hilgard'


work


"hidden


observer"


phenomenon


on "trance


logic


" indicates


that


many


cases


perception


altered


suggestion


certain


aspects


of perception


may


be di


SSOC


lated


or "covert"











the question


of whether


it 1


signal


detection


, interpretation


sensory


signals


reporting


which


altered


suggestion


emerged


No study


to date


has focused


on improvement


auditory


thresholds


normal


subjects


under


hypnosis


However


Scharf


and


Zamansky


(1963)


and


Goldberg


(1966)


reported


improvement


visual


word


recognition


threshold


under


hypnosi


Moreover


Graham


Liebowitz


(1972


tested


myopic


normal


improvement


subjects


myopics


and


under


reported


hypnosis


significant


but


sual


normals


Kay


(1992


replicated


the


finding


with


myopes.


Statement


the


Problem


Integrating


research


and


theoretical


developments


over


the


past


century


suggests


that


psychology


today


avid


suit


a more


complete


understanding


of mental


processes,


one


which


integrates


biological


processes


with


psyche,


abolishing


dualism


body


and


mind


and


explaining


the


relationship


consciousness


with


non-conscious


processes.


Some


would


include


spiritual


experiences


also


in the


eventual


integrated


conceptualization


mental


proce


sses.


Psychotherapy


based


only


rudimentary


understanding


non


-conscious


processes


might


likened


some


ways











our


universe,


questions


about


just


how


to what


extent


our


lives


are


controlled


thoughts


and


experiences


in an


inner


universe


The


range


of which


we are


limits


unaware


conscious


become


and


increasingly


unconscious


timely


states


processes


and


the


dividing


lines


and


interrelationships


between


them are


the domain


of the


psychological


cosmonauts


21s


t century


Although


the


forgoing


review


suggests


our


current


pursuit


understanding


unconscious


proce


sses


includes


several


significant


lines


investigation,


are


still


unclear


about


the


part


which


each


contributes


the


overall


picture.


Conclusions


remain


limited


each


area


Little


empirical


research has explored the possible


interaction among


these modes


to thi


impact


research


hypno


access


to the


project,


S1s


unconscious


little has


subliminal


Of specific


been discovered


perception,


interest


about


exploring


potential


amplified unconscious


effects when


two modes


are combined.


investigated


To this


the


writer'


relationship


awareness


between


no research has


hypnotizability


respon


siveness


to subliminal


cues


. It seems


plausible


that


the


use


focused


hypnotic


suggestion


might


enhance


the


ability


perceive or


act


upon


subliminal


messages


at least


for some


individuals.


relevant


question


field











awareness,


thus


have


applications


in therapy.


Therapists


who


use


hypnotherapy,


as well


as those


who


might


contemplate


the


use


of subliminal


audiotapes,


seek


information


as to how


these


modes


intervention


work


, what


their


limits


are


, and


how


use


them


most


effectively


Thus


far,


research


into


what


types


subliminal


messages


might


effective


modifying


cognition


or behavior


elementary


stages


and r

begin


results


are


to touch


inconclusive


on the


question


best.


of whether


Only


or not


few


studi


hypnosis


can


enhance


human


perception


response


to subliminal


messages


These


studi


and


other


findings


which


have


framework,


will


be reviewed


following


chapter


Purpose


The


purpose


study


explore


some


effects


hypnosis


the


human


response


subliminal


auditory


suggestion.


The


effect


the


trance


state


with


suggestions

perception


attuned


will


listening


investigated


threshold


to determine


to what


auditory

degree


differences


attributable


response


enhanced


subliminal


auditory


capacity


cues


might


focused


attention


under


hypnosis.


More


specifically


, deviations


from


waking


baseline


auditory


perceptual


threshold


will











messages


will


also


compared


under


these


experimental


conditions.


without


measure


A control


subliminal


the


group


stimuli


effects


which


or hypnotic


repetitio


idergoes

inductic

n alone.


repeat tP

on will b<

Finally


sting

3 used

, the


relationship

to subjects'


of hypnotic

response to


susceptibility


subliminal


and


auditory


of hypnotic


stimuli


depth


will


preliminarily


explored.


Delimitations


study


will


limited


population


native


English


-speaking


college


psychology


students


with


auditory


acuity


within


normal


limits


All


subjects


the


study


will


be volunteers


who


have


been


-informed


that


study


will


include


least


preliminary


experience


with


hypnosis


situation which might


introduce


some bias


selection.


will


limited


those


effects


which


are


sibly


observable


or assessed


subjects'


verbal


report


or forced-


choice


response


paper-and-pencil


self


-report


questionnaire


Definition


of Terms


Auditory


acuity


degree


auditory


sensitivity


standard


test


stimuli,


comparison


with


normed











duration


sound


which


perceived


subject


just


time.


Conscious


ers


to the


state


of being


subjectively


aware


Decibel


(dB)


common


logarithmic


unit


expre


ssing


relative


loudness


sound


compared


the


reference


sound


pressure


level


zero


Depth


trance


refers


moment


-to-moment


state


subject


involving


along


degree


-established


responsiveness


depth


continuum


to suggestion


(Tart,


1978/79


, p.188)


. Some


researchers


still


view


the


term


"depth


trance"


interchangeable


with


the


terms


sugge


stability


"hypnoti


ability,


and


"susceptibility


However,


purposes


study,


"depth


trance"


will


viewed


related


not


identical


these


terms


which


are


defined


below


Hypnosis


designates


attentive,


psychophysiological


receptive


focused


state


concentration


aroused,


with


corresponding

heightened si


diminution


suggestibility


peripheral


and


awareness


result


which


certain


sensory,


motor,


memory


abnormaliti


may


induced


more


readily


than


in a


normal


state


(Spiegel


Spiegel,


1978,


interaction


33-34)


which


one


Also


person


defined


responds


social


to suggestions











Hypnotizabi1ity


See


"susceptibility


" The


terms


are


used


interchangeably


study.


Limen


the


minimum


stimulus


duration


intensity


some


dimension


that


can


just


be perceived


on 50%


trial


Masking


interference


blockage


one


sensory


stimulus


the


another


threshold


audiometry,


of a sound


the


elevated


process


the


by which


simultaneous


introduction


Non-conscious


another


term


sound


used


(Martin,


1975


collectively


. 60)


denote


mental


process


ses


which


are


outside


normal


consciousness,


including


those


otherwise


referred


some


subconscious


, preconscious,


unconscious,


and


impli


Perception


refers


psychophysiological


response


awareness


of external


stimuli,


which


may


conscious


unconscious


, usually


combined


with


some


notion


the


significance


that


information.


Pink


noise


type


masking


which


provides


relatively


broad


spectrum


frequencies


with


equal


energy


per


octave


below


about


2000


Sound-pressure level


(SPL)


Is an expression


of the


sure


a sound


relative


to a standard


reference


level


of 0.0002


dyne/cm2


which


is zero


dB SPL.











Speech


recognition


threshold


(SRT)


is the


intensity


dB HL


at which


words


in simple


speech


can be


correctly repeated


at chance


(50%)


level


accuracy.


Spondee


refers


to a


two


llabl


word which


is pronounced with


exactly


equal


empha


on both


syllables


, for


auditory


testing


purpose


es.


Standard a

level)


udiometric


the


threshold


sound-pressure


level

level


zero-dB


required


hearing


to make


frequency barely


audible


to the average normal


ear


(ANSI


1986).


Stimulus


refers


any


form


of physical


or chemical


energy


which


organism


has


receptor


capable


reacting;


anything


, whether


internal


external,


capable


citing


a response.


Subliminal


applies


the


pro


cess


stimuli


too


weak


intensity


too


brief


duration


identified


consciously


(Borgeat


et al,


1985,


p.22).


Suggestibility


"susceptibility


" The


terms


are


used


interchangeably


in this


study.


Suggestion refers


to a manner,


generally


somewhat


indirect,


which


mental


individual


absence


are


processes


altered


coercion


and


influence


any


behavior


from


conscious


without,

volition


on the











Supraliminal


ers


to the


processing


of stimuli


of which


one


is conscious


or aware


, also


stimuli


above


the


limen


threshold


of conscious


sensation.


Susceptibility


designates


capacity


an individual


to be


affected by


such


influences


as may


be called


sugge


stions


(Weitzenhoffer


, 1953


. Hypnotic


susceptibility


generally


responsiven


quantified


ess


series


the


overall


standardized


degree


suggestions


adminis


tered following hypnotic


induction


(Tart


1978/79,


p.188)


the


purposes


of thi


study,


"susceptibility"


and


"hypnotizability"


will


be used


interchangeably


Trance


used


to designate


an altered


state


consciousness


rendering


a subject


hypersuggestible.


Unconscious


refers


class


psychological


events


which


are


time


unknown


the


individual


but


that


can


actively


affect


individual'


behavior


(Shevrin


Dickman,


1980,


The


term


"non-consc


ious"


used


synonymou


with


general


definition


"unconscious"


this


paper.


White noise


a type


of masking noi


which has


approximately


equal


energy


per


cycle


and


covers


broad


range


frequency


relative


limits


human


auditory


capacity.











understood

phonetically


correctly

balanced


when


monosyllabic


standardized


words


list


is presented


a specified


intensity















CHAPTER


REVIEW


OF THE


LITERATURE


knowledge


the


brain'


conscious,


unconscious


and


psychobiological


network


grows


, the


way


which


perceptions,


thoughts


feelings


intervene


in thi


pattern


is a key


area


of exploration.


In thi


light


, processes


occurring


beyond


the


narrow


(Shevrin


range


consciousness


Dickman,


1980;


are


Bowers


receiving


renewed


& Meichenbaum,


1984;


attention


Caputi


1984


Hilgard,


1986;


Bornstein


, 1992b;


Hentschel,


Smith,


Draguns,


1986)


understanding


the


psychotherapist'


capacity


to enhance


the


client'


well


-being


interplay


of such


processes


underlies


effective


clinical


intervention


as well


as the


profess


ional


training


of psychotherapists


ssertation


receptivity


subliminal


explores


the


auditory


connection


messages


and


between

hypnotic


suggestion


two modes of


crossing the


border between


conscious


and


unconscious


facets


mind.


The


literature


review


will


consist


outline


status


thinking


about


unconscious processes


within psychology,


summaries


of relevant


research


examination


subliminal


the


auditory


studi


stimulation


on the


and hypnosis


intersection


and


these













Contemporary


Perspectives


on the


Unconscious


Mind


Historical


Context


thousands


years


, humans


have


wondered


about


existence


an unconscious


psychic


spiritual


realm


from


which


dreams,


intuition,


inspiration,


and


impul


ses


originate


(Joseph


, 1992


Foundations


Western


philosophical


treatment


17th


of conscious


century


rise


and


unconscious


humanistic


processes


self


date


-awareness


back


following


the Renaissance and


the birth


of modern


science


(Whyte,


1978)


However,


the exi


stence of


unconscious mental


processes


did not


gain


popular


acceptance


until


around


1900


The


impact


Cartesian


philosophy


, which


omitted


non-conscious


processes


from


both


the


mental


realm


(defined


awareness)


material


realm,


was


major


reason


why


During


the


centuries


from 1700


of individuals


to 1900,


in many


parts


contributions


of the


from a


world


wide


to the


variety


eventual


scientific


philosophical


conclusion


that


mental


processes


could


be explained


consciousness


alone


The


exploration


the


mental


structures


underlying


unconscious


processes


been


the


work


the


20th


century.


Contemporary


perspectives


on unconscious


proce


sses


have


----.1-- -I -


attn t tan *~y ~ U' *~ -%n .r I tn a r nrr s m r r n~ rnrl flllff rn ~ I l rL C ir


S-


*A -


A *.


r ~----1,,,,, I


F_~ ... ~


*


Arrr IAN L~~rnr~ rnn *rn


^











ranging


powerful


(Bruner


, 1992


Kelly,


1991;


Winson


1985


, the


intense


skepticism


behaviorists


Watson


Skinner)


who


rejected


unconscious


processes


as untenable


(Hilgard,


1980;


Kihl


strom,


1987;


Bruner,


1992


Greenwald,


1992


the


computer-based


information-process


model


mental


activity


provided


cognitive


theory


sts,


which


include

networks


separate


but


(Hilgard,


interwoven


1980;


Dixon


conscious

, 1981;


unconscious


Kihlstrom


1987;


Greenwald,


1992).


Exploration


unconscious


processes


perception


memory


the


1940s,


labeled


New


Look


Perception,


redefined


perception


constructive


process


serving


adaptive


functions


the


individual,


rather


than


mere


neutral


registration


of stimuli


The question


then


shifted


what


guided


perception


made


some


features


more


phenomenally


salient


than


others


(Bruner,


1992


. The


answer


seemed


linked


to needs


, expectancies


, and


internal


conflicts


or defenses,


finding


which


intensified


dissention


between


psychoanalytic


behaviorist


views


mental


process


ses


(Erdelyi


1992)


New


Look


investigations


formed the


foundation


of current


investigation


research


on subliminal


of recognition


perception.


thresholds


became


Tachistoscopic

the prevailing


technique


(Bruner,


1992


Erdelyi,


1992;


Prinz


, 1986)











unified meta-theory


which


provides


a comprehensive


picture


mental


processes,


substantiated


research


and


human


experience


, understanding


that


which


influences


our


behavior


which


are


unaware,


is essential


to completing


picture


(Meichenbaum & Gilmore


, 1984


Caputi


1984;


Greenwald


1992b;

Tataryn,


Loftus

1992;


Klinger


Joseph,


1992


1992


Kihlstrom,


Epstein,


Barnhardt,


1994).


central


intent


of exploration


the


fields


of hypnosis


subliminal


perception


has


been


search


evidence


prove


or disprove


theories


unconscious


processes


developed


Freud,


Jung,


and


Janet.


significant


body


work


subliminal


perception


and


neuropsychology


, currently


finding


substantial


validation,


stems


from


Freud'


theory


dyna


unconscious


which


protects


the


ego


through


defense


mechanisms


influences


behavior


and


intrapsychic


events


(Winson,


1985;


Kelly,


1991;


Dixon


Henley,


1986


Henley,


1986;


Hentschel


Schneider


1986;


Westerlundh


Sjoback,


1986)


. Jung'


theory


the


collective


unconscious


and


inherent


archetypes


also


being


researched


through


developmental


studi


, hypnosis


, and


work


on brain


injuries


(Kelly,


1991


Joseph,


1992)


Freudian


and Jungian


theory


dream


symbolism


are


being


explored


through


hypnosis


, sleep


research,


subliminal


perception


rese


arch


(Fisher


, 1960











through


recent


work


on multiple


personality


on the


hidden


observer


phenomenon


in hypnosis


(Hilgard


, 1984,


1986;


Perry


Laurence


1984;


Kihl


strom,


1984;


Kelly


, 1991;


Rhue


Lynn


1991)


These


combined


efforts


have


establi


shed


foundation


documentation


that


unconscious


memories,


perceptual


defense


, and unconsciously motivated behaviors and feelings do


exis


but


questions


what


extent


and


how


they


operate


remain.


Neuropsvcholoaical


Contributions


mapping


mental


structure


and


function


through


studi


of split


-brain


patients


other


brain


injuries


stimulated research


in both hypnosis


and subliminal


perception


related


unconscious


perceptual


processes


(Hilgard


Hilgard,


1975;


Warrington


Weiskrant


, 1974;


Bowers,


1976;


Sarbin


Slagle,


1979;


Dixon,


1981;


Winson


, 1985;


Joseph,


1992)


. It


clear


that


two


halves


the


brain


often


perceive things differently,


have different memories


triggered


response


conflicting


those


conclusions


perceptions,


about


and


same


reach


piece


different


information


(Win


son


, 1985;


Joseph,


1992


left


right


brain


functions and their interactions are differentiated,


parallels


ClrnAC An; S


kr fin


CI~IA~F1A~


rhCLlhhn


r*; nh C


k rrrrA


Ilnrnn c! r r nllr


;j nr


n











functionally


related


disconnect


dissociation


two


hemispheres


repression,


areas


process


topical


hypnosis


research


(Galin


, 1974)


. Further


corroboration


subliminal


perception


neurophysiological


experimentation


research


information


come


processing,


from


which


suggests


that


the


right


brain


follows


a fast


mode


of parallel


processing


while


left


-brain


processing


takes


slower,


sequential


pathways


(Kihlstrom


, 1987)


Theoretical


PersDectives


These scientific


advances have


not come without


impact


theory


Shevrin


and


Dickman


concluded


1980


that


contemporary


psychological


theory


can


omit


unconscious


mental


process


ses


(Shevrin


Dickman


, 1980).


recent


typology


identifies


hundreds


theories


the


unconscious


organic


zes


them


into


four


main


perspectives


bio-physical,


psycho-personal,


socio-cultural,


and


transpersonal


-spiritual


(Caputi,


1984)


Integration


these


diverse


outlooks


limited


progressing.


Current


descriptions


of mental


activity


generally


posit


one


realm


mental


processes,


continuous


mainly


unconscious,


which


only


few


transitory


aspects


are


-I fi aI n n t 1 a a n A 4A .n --n- r W i*


1 QT7-


I Wh~rf a


mA~; ~Cn


B ~ ~ an ~ i hn


nrre


I~


nr


rA 1~1











adaptive


system


that


automatically


intuitively


organizes


experience


and


directs


behavior


Most


information


processing


occurs


automatically


outside of


awareness


because


that mode


far more effi


cient than conscious


, deliberative thinking


may


happen


while


waking


or during


dream


states


(Winson,


1985


Kihistrom,


1987


Joseph


1992


Unconscious


perception


understood


precede


conscious


experience


set


multi


-faceted


process


which


automatically


redescribes


sensory


data


into


every


representational


form


known


organism.


Such


processes


create


records


of each


representation


, produce


varied


perceptual


hypotheses


activate


related


structures


the


brain,


influence


analog


aspects


actions


(Marcel,


1983b;


Shevrin


& Di


ckman,


1980;


Dixon


1981;


Kihlstrom


, 1984,


1987;


Madsen


1986;


Joseph,


1992


Kihl


strom,


Barnhardt


Tataryn


, 1992b).


Consciousness


viewed


later,


optional


stage


cognition


. Stimulus


factors,


state


factors


motivational


factors


interact


determine


what


needs


enter


consciousness


(Shevrin &


Dickman


1980;


Kihistrom,


1984


1987;


Joseph,


1992


Epstein,


1994)


The


ensuing


conscious


phenomenon


functionally


processes


is a constructive


useful


rather


than


attempt


data


direct


to make


sibl


reflection


sense


from


as much


unconscious


internal











believed


to confer


conscious


awareness


coming


contact


with


environmental


cues


and


other


knowledge


structures


activated


perception


thoughts


. Consciousness


adds


phenomenon


awareness


the


ability


to base


intentional


action


with


such


upon


concept


experience


of self


subliminal


(Marcel,


absent


perception


and


1983b)


unconscious


hypnotic


connection


processes,


response


suggestion


(Kihlstrom,


Barnhardt,


& Tataryn,


1992b)


Cogniti


ve-e


xperiential


self


theory


(Epstein,


1990


, 1994)


assumes


information


driven


existence


processing


experiential


two


parallel,


rational


system


tern


interacting


and


, integrating the


modes


an emotionally-


cognitive


the


psychodynamic


unconscious.


These


two


process


ses


collaborate


optimal


mental health,


and psychopathology may


evolve when


either


system


is not


supported


the


other.


Beahrs


(1983)


suggested


the


term


"co-consciousness,


describe


phenomenon


situation


which


dual


describes


levels


universal


awareness


feature


healthy


living


Neodissociation


theory


(Hilgard


1986)


ass


erts


that


a temporarily


dissociated


expert


ences


which


mind


retains


an awareness


outside


consciousness


may


directly


influence


behavior


without


the


individual'


awareness.


SSOC


iation


believed


represent











created


Hypnotic


suggestion


can


create


type


response


in some


individuals


strong


contemporary


trend


deal


with


integration


of total


mind healing theories


originating


in Eastern medicine


and


religious


philosophy


with


psychology,


primarily


through


meditative


techniques.


Benson


(1987)


asserts


that


increased


communication


between


the


right


and


left


hemispheres


the


brain,


achieved


through


daily


elicitation


"relaxation


response


can


strengthen


capacity


of the


unconscious


mind


overcome


ess


and


maximize


the


contribution


of mind-body


interaction


personal


wellness


Rossi


(1991)


describes


natural


ultradian


variations


consciousness,


including


periodic


brief


healing


periods


during


which


access


unconscious


processes


facilitated


and


can


used


psychological


growth,


problem


solving,


and mind-body


healing


Siegel


(1986)


includes


the


effect


meditative


prayer


spiritual


energizing


through


union


with


Life


Force


essential


pathway


mind


-body


wellness


connection.


Many theorists


expr


ess


frustration


, concern,


or wariness


over


problems


associated


with


the


study


mental


proce


sses


outside


awareness


Caputi


, (1984)


Erdelyi


(1992


point


that


there


is no firm


dividing


line


between


conscious


awareness


unconsciousness;


rather,


the











subject


tested


yields


different


measures


accessibility


consciousness;,


what


appears


unconscious


under


one


type of


under


inquiry


another


appears


type


to be conscious


another


or partially


time.


conscious


Awareness


limits


limited


scientific


scope


research


laboratory


growing,


demonstrations


however


is not


, and


considered


proof


that


unconscious


memories


are


not


both


complex


influential


(Erdelyi,


1986;


Merikle


Reingold,


1992


Caputi


(1984)


, Archard


(1984)


, and


others


from


various


perspectives


caution against reification of


"the uncon


SC1OuS,


sugge


sting


that


word


most


accurately


used


adjective.


"the


Because


unconscious


the


" Erdelyi


diverse


(1992)


denotations


favors


ascribed


reacceptance


concept


that


with


reservations


the unconscious


capacity"


. 775)


mind


Greenwald


"severely


, understanding


(1992)

limited


nothing


more


also


soph


concludes

analytic

isticated


than


partial


meanings of


single words


and


capable


of learning


only


fraction


what


conscious


mind


can


learn.


indicates


that


ess


better


evidence


forthcoming,


will


soon


be time


to abandon


psychoanalytic


theory'


proposal


that


unconscious


cognition


the


peer


or the


superior


conscious


cognition.

unconscious


Caputi (1984)

accounts for


concludes


that


experiences,


but


hypothesis


is not


a necessary











Issues


Definition


Terminoloav


lack of


a more


precise


understanding,


the majority


literature


today


uses


the


term


"unconscious"


to refer


non-consclous


processes,


that


term


been


used


project


A few


attempts


have


been


made


to differentiate


between


facets


the


non


-conscious


mind


. Kihlstrom


(1987,


1992


proposes


tripartite


cognitive


divi


sion


unconscious


which


bears


little


resemblance


to psychoanalytic


theory


. The


only


truly unconscious


mental


proce


sses


, from


perspective


, exist


domain


of procedural


knowledge


operate on knowledge without


conscious


intent or awareness


uses


"preconscious" to


signify declarative knowledge which can


influence

necessary


ongoing


experience,


representation


but


working


below

memory


the

and


threshold

conscious


awareness


subliminal


perception


implicit


memory)


third


mental


category,


"subconscious"


representations


which


mental


are


processes


above


includes


threshold


ordinarily


required


representation


in working


memory


and


available


introspection


under


some


conditions


, but


are


nonetheless


inaccessible


awareness


.g.,


hypnosis


Another


subgroup


researchers


use


the


designation,


"unconscious


phenomena


that


cannot


deliberately


brouaht


into


conscious


awareness


efforts


the


conscious


.


---- ---


w -


---- -- --


,,











category


(Caputi,


1984;


Andersson


Bengtsson,


1986;


Hentschel


Smith


, & Draguns,


1986;


Kihistrom,


1987;


Bornstein


1992


Jacoby


, Lindsay,


& Toth,


1992;


Greenwald,


1992;


Merikl


& Reingold,


available

certain


1992)


Phenomena deemed


consciousness,


circumstances


are


Some


"subconscious,


retrievable


investigators


" while


recall


view


not


under


hypnotic


suggestion


and


automatic


writing


as experiences


type


(Hilgard,


1980,


1986;


Kihl


strom,


1984,


1987)


Others,


however


indicate


that


hypnosis


can


communic


directly


with


unconscious


(Erickson,


1943,


1992


Chertok,


1978,


1981;


Rossi,


1986;


Rossi


Cheek


, 1988;


Cheek,


1989)


Hilgard


(1980)


suggests

subconsc


that


10US


clear


difficult


stinction

: to make


between

without (


unconscious


commitmentt


and

some


theoretical


perspective.


Conclusion


Although


the


single


consensus,


as we


approach


the


turn


century


, seems


to be that


some


"unconscious"


facet


of the


mind


exis


ts and


operates


while


we are


virtually


every


other


state


consciousness


(from


hyper-alert


waking


states


to the


deepest


stages


anesthesia),


unconscious


processes


have


gained


a position


recogni


importance


psychological


rsce~a'rn'h


thenrv


ArtnIat<


anreem err


or trune


csr i 0_nti fi


I -


n- |


1 JI


A


* L--











theory


cognitive information process


sing theory


hypnosis


memory


research.


Progr


ess


toward


clinically


relevant


issues,


such


as the


nature


of psychological


defense


mechanisms


repres


sion


and


dissociation),


dreams,


unconsciously motivated


behavior,


memory,


been


temporarily


slowed


scientific

terminology


Reingold,


debate

and d


1992)


over


efinitions


The


fundamentals


(Bornstein


subtlety


like


1992b;


measuring


measurement,


Merikle


unconscious


proce


sses


appears


tax


the


limits


current


scientific


knowledge,


and


has stimulated


heated


debate


over


results


and


compelled


experimental


continual


methodology


innovations


refinements


spite


however


appreciation


the


role


which


unconscious


processes


play


growing

being i:


. Spiritual


integrated


aspects


with


unconscious


biological


and


mind


psychological


are

and


today

with a


transcultural


perspective


the holi


stic health model


This,


then,


the


larger


framework


within


which


approach


fields


subliminal


perception


and


hypnosis


tool


investigate


unconscious


workings


the


mind.


Subliminal


Perception


Contemporary theorists


have come


to view perception as


event


over


time


rather


than


instantaneous


reaction


.g.,











experiences


, and


personality


(Hentschel,


Smith


Draguns


1986;


Prinz,


1986).


broadened


view


perception


revised


ideas


about


the


appropriate


time


and


methods


measuring


perception


(Hentschel,


Smith


Draguns,


1986


Erdelyi


, 1988;


Fisher


, 1988).


The


reality


subliminal


perception


continues


to be


matter


of dispute,


despite


decades


of research


. Modern


study


subliminal


perception


often


traced


Pierce


and


Jastrow'


1884


discovery


that


subjects


could


guess


which


two

even


(Kihl


weights

though


strom,


was heavier

they reports


Branhardt,


at rates


feeling


Tataryn,


significantly


no di


1992


above


scernible


Another


chance


difference


pioneer


study


Sidi


1898


showed


that


subjects


could read


letters


printed


distant


card


sion


shown


with


them


accuracy


beyond


significantly


their


beyond


range


chance


despite


their


belief


that


they


saw


nothing


printed


(Merikle


Reingold,


1992


Since


then,


there


have


been


persuasive


arguments


(Dixon,


1981;


Bornstein,


1989;


Weinberger


, 1990,


1992)


against


(Holender,


1986)


However


continued


experimentation has


led to a growing


consensus


that


subliminal


perception is


a genuine


phenomenon demonstrable under specific


delimited

Hentschel,


condition

Smith,


(Cheesman


& Draguns


& Merikl


1986;


1985;


Wolford,


Fowler,


1986;


1986;


Kihlstrom,











Since


subliminal


input


outside


awareness


the


receiver


and may manif


est its


full


impact


over


time,


assessing


the


effects


type


ervention


even


more


difficult than the recogni


zed dilemmas accompanying scientific


validation


conscious


psychotherapeutic


interventions


(Urban


, 1992)


The


paradox


scientifically


measuring


the


degree


subject'


awareness


phenomenon


which


supposed


be outside


awareness


has


been


the


primary


basi


the


controversy


(Shevrin


Dickman


, 1980;


Dixon,


1981)


The


present


study


bypasses


the


issue


the


authenticity


subliminal


perception


(which


the


investigator


views


adequately


established


fact),


explores


issues


the


applicability


subliminal


technology


paradigm


mind\body


healing


Subliminalitv


concept


subliminality


hinges


the


verity


that


the


perceiver


is unaware of


the


stimulus,


the


response,


or the


connection between


the


two.


It may


be defined


with respect


awareness


researchers


the

use


presence


the


or the


erm


content


of a stimulus


"preconscious


rather


. Some

than


subliminal


, to distinguish


any


stimulus


of which


the


subject


can


made


aware


(Dixon,


1981;


Swingle


, 1992)


early











Issue


subliminality


become


increasingly


complex


however,


as other thresholds


have


been defined and new methods


of signal

audible s


delivery


timuli


evolved


masked


Recent


music


studi


generally


noise.


use


threshold


concept,


therefore


, may refer to


identification of


the content


stimulus


, discrimination


between


stimuli,


extrication


of signal


from


mask,


or behavioral


response


Both


subjective


and objective


thresholds can


be determined


each


criterion.


A subjective


threshold


denotes


point


at which


the


subj


freely


indicates


with


accuracy


that


or she


detects


differentiates


signal;


objective


threshold


the


point


which


the


subject


responds


with


accuracy


forced-choice


questions


about


signal


(Cheesman


Merikle,


1984,


1986;


Merikle


Reingold,


1992)


. Subjects


may


also


unaware


unable


identify,


their


res


ponse


subliminal


stimuli,


an issue


relevant


to research,


more


than


to clinical

Subliminal


work

versus


(Swingle


, 1992).


sunraliminal


effects


effect


stimulus


can


vary


qualitatively


quantitatively


when


presented


different


energy


level


relative


the


perceiver'


physiological


receptivity


Theoretically


, subliminal


stimuli


could


produce


effects


which


are


weaker


, similar


, or


stronger


than


stimuli


that


are











supraliminally


(Groeger


1986


Silverman


1983;


Hardaway,


1990;


Bornst


ein,


1992a)


particularly


true


areas


of subliminal


mere


exposure


and


psychodynamic


research


(Masling


, 1992)


In other studi


subliminal


and supraliminal


effects have been found


to be qualitatively


different


(Spence


Klein


, &


Fernandez


1986;


Jacoby,


Lindsay


Toth,


1992


Shevrin


, 1992)


Psychoanalytic


theori


sts attribute


differences


differential


conscious


action


unconscious


ego'


processing


defense


(Dixon


system


& Henley,


with


1986)


However


, in


judgement,


some


studi


supraliminal


areas,


maintain


stimuli


such


that

are e


social


influences


essentially


perception


of subliminal


parallel


(Dixon,


1981;


Marcel


, 1983b;


Eich


1984;


Bargh


, 1992


Subliminal


studi


exical


priming


generally


demonstrate


ects


superior to supraliminal


presentation


(Masling


1992


Subliminalitv


and unconscious


perception


important


subliminal


theoretical


messages


rational


clinical


the


context


use


that


technology


permits


direct


access


to the


unconscious


How


what


degree


this


occurs


issue


considerable


creative


controversy


(Dixon


& Henley,


1986;


Spence


, Klein


Fernandez


, 1986


Kihl


strom,


Barnhardt


I &r


Tataryn,


1992a,


1992b;


Shevrin


, 1992


Jacoby


et al


1992


One


theory


that











Shevrin


(1992


hypothesis


zes


that


consciousness


identify


source category for


a stimulus


which


contributes to


selection


conscious


lack


response,


categorical


but


because


definition


, they


unconscious


activate


processes


network


resulting


response


stimulus


widespread


processes.


acts


Jacoby


complex


association


with


(199


retrieval


many


theorize


cue


different


that


memory


multiple


prior


events


holding


some


similarity


the


pres


one,


which


consciously


unconsciously


influence


the


interpretation


the


current


situation


placing


context


. Weinberger


(1992)


posits


that


subliminal


stimuli


subliminal


psychodynamic


activation


interventions


trigger


unconscious


schema


associated


with


positive


mood


which


generally


have


affective


cores


and


serve


to mediate


positive


behavioral


response.


Psychoanalytic


theory


consider


that


any


stimulus


outside awareness


is automatically subjected to the processing


features


dynamic


unconscious,


governed


important


conflicts


and


general


needs and


following


such


laws


primary


process


thinking


condensation


, displacement,


transformation


(Spence,


Klein


Fernandez,


l986)J


Shevrin


(199


concludes


that


cognitive


and


dynamic


unconscious processes cannot be neatly separated


but interact











Commercially


-Prepared


Subliminal


Self


-Help


Tapes


A profusion


of self-help


audiotapes


hit


market


over


the decade of


1980s


, capital


zing


on the seductive


idea


subliminal


mind


-body


healing


effects


. Although


evidence


inconclusive


what


kinds


presentations


may


effective and what


types of


behavior


can be


influenced,


claims


marketing


agents


and


media


have


consumers


believe


that


the


effects


are


recognized


and


powerful


The


script


and


recording


technique


the


commercial


tapes


have


not


been


released


analy


SIS


, but


some


tapes


profess


contain


Russell


over


80,000


, Rowe,


positive


Smouse,


1991;


suggestions


Vokey


(Meriki


Read,


, 1988;


1985)


gen


eral


, experts


field


have


met


marketing


effort


with


1991;


concern


Russell,


skepti


Rowe


cism


& Smouse


(Merikle


, 1991;


, 1988;


Meriki


Greenwald


Skanes


et al


, 1992)


Merikl


(1988)


segments


performed


commercial


spectrographic


tapes


evidence


analysis


embedded


messages


, and


found


indication


energy


patterns


associated


with


speech.


However,


Urban


(1992)


maintains


that


sonograms


information


not


from


necessarily


masking,


have


without


capacity


speech


extract


template


comparison


Greenwald


(1991)


conducted


blind


comparison


SJ-


commercially


nrenared


memory


and


self-esteem











asserts


that


since


placebo


effects


are


typically


from


universal,


either


subliminal


general


arousal

stimulatio


improvement


phenomenon


contend


is more


commonly

t-specific


likely


to suggest


associated


with


effects


tapes


not


adequately


ass


essed


the


study.


Russell,


Rowe,


Smouse


(1991)


found


impact


on school


grades


hours


listening


tapes


about


study


habits


and


passing


exams,


compared with


placebo tapes


and wait


-list control


Although no


objective


study


yet


documented


therapeutic


effects


from


commercially


-prepared


tapes,


other


self-help


media


books


, videotapes


lectures)


are


held


these


evaluative


standards.


Urban


(1992)


emphasis


zes


that


these


commercially available


tapes


should not be compared with


tapes


intended


clinical


interventions


also


call


to mind


difficulty


which


psychotherapeutic


treatments


in general


have


had


coming


with


scientific


validation


their


efficacy relative


to placebo


despite


ample


clinical


evidence


to the contrary


. The


impact of


subliminal


auditory messages


validated


other


contexts


indicates


that


issue


from


closed.


Research


on the


Effects


Auditory


Subliminal


Messages


A central


res


earch


question


over


last decade


has been











although


subliminal


input


from


the


senses


has


been


documented


(Dixon,


1981;


Bornstein,


1992b;


Masling,


1992


Literature


in cross-modal


subliminal


processing


suggests


that


auditory


visual


sensory


modalities


interact


and


share


equivalent


capacities


with


respect


subliminal


processing


(Henley,


1975)


Sensitivity


or receptivity


The border between consc


ious


and subliminal


perception of


signal


been


shown


differ


from


one


individual


another


vary


within


a single


individual


over


time


under


different


conditions


(Swingle


, 1992


Thresholds


hearing


or vis


may


differ


from


the


left


the


right


side


the


body


Only


little


known


present


about


the


factors


which


predict


sensitivity


subliminal


stimuli


Signal


detection


theory


(Atkinson,


1963)


describes


the


reception


sensory


stimuli


dynamic


two


-step


process


. First,


the


relationship


between


external


stimulus


events


and


internal


sensory


state


subject


determines


the


subject'


sensitivity


stimuli.


Thi


may


fluctuate


frequently,


even


from


trial


trial


Then


internal


decision


process


specific


subject'


observabi


response


in terms


sensory


state


and


physiological


verbal











reporting


of the


experience


implies


that


further


criteria


are


met


(Fowler,


1986;


Libet


et al


, 1991).


Watson


and


Klopton


(1969)


, evaluating


impact


motivating


instructions,


monetary


reward,


electric


shock,


and


verbal


feedback


plus


strongly


motivating


instructions


changes


detection


of a masked


auditory


signal,


found


only


electrical


shock


motivating


instructions/performance


feedback co

in auditory


mbination

acuity.


were


The


able


authors


to produce

concluded


even

that


minor


changes


listeners


are


capable of


momentary


enhancement of


detection performance,


average


increments


are


large


enough


to be a consideration


in most


auditory


psychophysical


research


. Variability


between


subjects


was


smaller


on high


incentive


trial


than


on normal


ones,


suggesting


individual


differences


in effort under normal


conditions


that


with


basic


motivating


instructions


listeners approached an upper


limit of


performance which could


be exceeded


with


further


motivation.


Perceptual


sensitivity


known


to be


affected


both


personality


personality


-based


states


perceiver


Cognitive


schema


and


other


information


memory


inherently


influence


the


allocation


attention


and


the


receptivity


and processing

(Prinz, 1986).


Eagle


stimuli,

(1962),


whether


using


conscious


-sort


not


examine











perceptiveness


flexible,


cooperative


cognitive and affective


openn


ess


, confident,


use


of non-cognitive defenses,


tolerance


unstructured


situations,


and


acceptance


of passivity


also


identified


four


situational


factors


which


affected


sensitivity


encouraging


awareness


unconscious


information:


relaxed


state,


state


which


reality


testing suspended,


response


tasks


which encourage responses on


basi


stimuli


guesses


Fleminger


intuitions


(1992)


, and


suggests


vague


that


or less clear


expectancies


prejudice


our


perceptions


, tending


to foster


perceptions


with


which


they


are


consonant


and,


hence


, creating


bias


expectations


led


beliefs,


may


result


misperceptions


, which


reinforce


those


beliefs


seni


of perceptual


defense


sensiti


zation


studi


(Dixon


Lear,


1963;


Dixon,


1981)


have


shown


perceptual


there


should


meaningful


material


to depend


on the


emotional


significance


the


material.


general


, the


threshold


sensitivity to emotionally threatening or di


stasteful material


higher,


material


and

lower,


the

than


threshold


that


for neutral


emotionally

material.


appealing


Sensitivity


also


affected


emotional


state


and


memory


perceiver


While


moderate


level


anxiety


produce


raised


thresholds


, high


level


anxiety


result


lowered











affect


lowers


threshold


(Niedenthal,


1992


. Dixon


(1981)


reports


that


subliminal


effects


can


antagonized


mental


sets


opposed


their


effects


. Prinz


(1986)


indicates


that


selectivity


based


on the


information


contained


memory


central


defining


feature


kinds


perceptual


activity.


range


psychodynamically


oriented


experiments


have


applied subliminal


technology to the assessment of


personality


individual


differences.


Internal


conflicts


defense


mechanisms


have


been


shown


affect


process


sing


subliminal


stimuli,


underlying


the


observed


variations


response


to emotionally charged


stimuli


(Dixon


& Henley,


1986


Draguns,

Silverman


1986;


Henley

isler,


1986;


1986;


Hentschel


Westerlundh


Schenider,


Sjoback,


1986;

1986;


Masling,


1992


. The Defense


Mechanism Test


(DMT)


(Kragh,


1986)


uses visual su

assess defense


ibliminal


mechanisms


images


threatening


(Anderson


Bengtsson


figure


1986)


Research


has


begun


the


development


standard


presentations


complex-related


and


neutral


subliminal


stimuli


as a potential


tool


bypassing


defense


mechanisms


to diagnose concealed psychopathology,


in a


process similar to


protective tests


(Andersson


Bengtsson,


1986;


Dixon &


Henley,


1986;


Kragh,


1986)











Stimuli


Single


words


or sounds


simple


geometric


designs


pictures


are


the


type


stimuli


which


have


been


most


thoroughly


investigated


and


found


effective


(Borgeat


et al


1985;


Bornstein


1989;


Dixon,


1981;


Jameson


1990;


Marcel,


(SPA)


1983)


experiments


Successful


involve


subliminal


visual


psychodynamic


or auditory


activation


presentation


of a sentence with


symbiotic


meaning,


such


as "Mommy


and


are


one


" compared


with


neutral


sentences


such


"People


are


walking"


However,


(Silverman


Balay


, 1983,


Shevrin


1989;


(1988)


Fudin


pointed


Benjamin


out


1991)


that


uncertain whether the


phrase


is processed as a


conceptual


unit


whether


responsible


only

for


certain


the


words,


effects


such


Greenwald


"Mommy

(1992)


and


argues


are

that


there


has


been


no convincing


proof


that


more


than


one


word


processed


at a time.


Swingle


(1992),


Urban


(1992,


1993)


and


others affirm that


subjects


can


process


respond


to complete


sentences


and


range


related


content


presented


auditorially


(Fudin


Benjamin,


1991)


Swingle


asserts


that


multiple


related


words


ases


(199


words


are


describes


superior


good


emnti nnal 1 v


single


scripting


ri1l vant


word


presentations


as including


mstPtri 1


short


-lt sll-rhni


. Urban


phrases


sa/^imi t


U |


lo











ultrasonic


kHz)


stimuli


are


being


tested


studi


(Lenhardt


et al


1991;


Urban


, 1992


Maskinca


factors


Music


itself


a recognized


modifier


affect


. Benes


Gutkin


& Decker


(1989)


have shown


that


responses


to subliminal


auditory


cues


masked


mellow


music


are


greater


than


responses


the


same


cues


masked


frenetic


music.


Pignatiello,


Camp,


Rasar


(1986)


showed music


to be effective


induction


moods


elation


and


depression.


Tempo,


loudness,


and


structural


characteristic


music


have


also


been


found


to have


an effect


on arousal


, subjective


mood,


and


physiological


factors


. Thus


music can be considered


an ideal


embedding medium for mood modification and relaxation


induction


treatments


(McFarland


, 1985;


Swingle,


1992)


Zenhausern


Hansen


(1974)


reported


activating


effects


white


Swingle


noise


(199


both


indicates


subliminal


that


and


supraliminal


subliminally


presented


levels.

i white


the effect of


enhancing performance


in any


situation


for

that


which


relaxation


broadband


is not


masking,


required.


using


white


Urba

noise


(199


, pink


cautions


noise


ocean


surf,


can


result


such


poor


signal-to-noi


S/N)


ratio


times


that


the


message


becomes











stimulus


reported


subliminal


effects.


Clinically,


using


white


noise


or music


the


subject'


choi


masking


been


found


effective


(Swingle


, 1992


Backmaskinc


Spurred


popular


interest


litigation


against


the


alleged


subliminal


effects


"backmasking"


Satani


messages


rock


music


, Vokey


Read


(1985)


studied


effects


recording


messages


backwards


into


music


Subjects


differentiated


another,


male


the


from


language


femal


voices


in which


the


, one


message


voice


was


from


recorded.


They


could


distinguish


questions


from


statements


differentiate


between


types


content


Neither


were


they


influenced


select


ess


common


spelling


homophone


pain,


pane)


hearing


backmasked


prime


window)


. However,


when


investigators


identified


portions


backward

subjects


those


passages

could cc


phrases


which


>rrectly


cued


sounded

recogni


like


the


listen


phrases


passages


Thus


them.


sentences,

containing


, while


possibility


of unconscious


effects


remains,


litti


meaning


consciously


extractabi


from


backward


recorded


passages,


but


backward


recorded


messages


can


contain


sounds


or phrases


that


may


be interpreted


as meaningful


. Backward


masking


visual











Semantic


processing


degree


which


verbal


stimuli


are


processed


analyzed


subliminally


been


subject


considerable


rese


arch


Evidence


has


been


presented


response


to both


physical


characteristic


and


content


meaning.


Groeger


(1984)


showed that with


visual


stimuli,


structural


analy


S1S


words


predominates


below


recognition


threshold


(when


subjects


can


detect


but


not


recogni


stimulus)


whereas


semantic


analysis


predominates


below


the


awareness


threshold


(when


subjects


not


consciously


detect


stimulus)


auditory


mode,


homophones


to which


subjects


were


subliminally


exposed


while


shadowing


monologue


played


through stereo


headphones


were shown


to affect the recognition


and


spelling


of words


immediately


thereafter


, indicating


that


unattended


information


subject


some


degree


deep


semantic


analysis


However,


attended


presentation


homophones


produced


much


more


complete


semantic


analyst


(Eich,


1984)


Memory


Short

hl inm n 1


-term


memory


nrnn yr ei c mc


material


flh~lkn1


can


r T .A


influenced


I inn f


a *.5 1wo I -


Fe ionn c r z a 4-a


a


ik A


*











and awareness of


memory for unattended


events,


indicating that


memory


past


events


can


influence


pres


ent


actions,


whether


or not


we are


aware


of remembering


or of perceiving


prior


experiences.


Erdelyi


(1988)


points


out


that


memory


unattended


events


may


greater


over


time


with


repeated


efforts


recall


. He


also


shows


that


indirect


indicators,


such


as free


associations


stimulus


that


or dreams,


which


memory


often


unavailable


stimulus


access


to direct


commonly


a form


memory


conscious


may


recall,


affected


context


Affect


in which


or energy


is presented.


level


Borgeat,


activating


Chabot,


deactivating


Chaloult


(1981)


subliminal


demonstrated


auditory


messages


that


can


have


significant


effects on


level


of activation


on the Nowli


Mood


Adjective


Check


. Emotional


responses


to simple


cues


have


also


been


demonstrated


(Bornstein,


1989;


Corteen


& Dunn,


1974),


Studi


where


the


field


subject


recognition


threshold)


of subliminal


merely


have


mere


shed


consistently


exposure


stimulus


below


demonstrated


that


indirect affect-based stimulus discrimination i


more accurate











not


recogni


stimuli


forced-choice


test


(Kunst-


Wilson


Zajonc,


1980;


Bornstein,


1992


Subliminal


presentations of words


such as


"happy,


"peaceful,


" and


sturbing"


and


pictures


with


happy


unhappy


themes


have


been


shown


to affect


evaluative


deci


sions


about


subsequent


target


words


the


emotional


tone


of stori


written


following


exposures


, and


interpretations


ambiguous

stimulus


inkblots,

(Greenwald,


although

Klinger


subjects


Liu,


denied

1989;


detection


3wingle


of the


, 1992)


Attitudes


or cognition


Category


judgement


, problem


solving


, and


thought


concepts


cannot


exposure


can


detect


has


influenced


(Swingle


shown


auditory


, 1992)


conclusively


stimuli


SResearch


that


that


subjects


subliminal


simple,


mere


unreinforced


exposure


subliminal


stimulus


sufficient


enhance


attitude


toward that


stimulus


(Bornstein,


1992C


Bargh


(1992


contends


that


subliminality


does


not


matter


with


respect


stereotyping


perception,


other


since


automatic


same


evaluation


influences


effects


occur whether


of social


or not


subject


aware


the


stimulus.


Bornstein


, Leone


, &


Galley


(1987)


demonstrated


that


attitudes


toward


pictures


people


and


toward


the


actual


III'ad











Subliminal


psychodynamic activation


treatments


have


been


shown


repeatedly


enhance


learning


approximately


(Parker,


1982;


Hudesman,


Page


Rautiainen,


1992


eep-


assisted


subliminal


learning


been


shown


effective


specific


contexts


(Aarons,


1976)


Psvchoohvsiolooical


measures


Borgeat


Goulet


(1983)


showed


that


unconsciously


perceived


activating


and


deactivating


suggestions


affected


subjects'


heart rate and skin conductance


level


when


presented


with


a benign


stress,


although


a later


experiment


Borgeat


et al. (1989)


replicated


the


effects


on heart


rate


but


not


skin


conductance.


Borgeat


(1985)


also


reported


that


skin


direct


below


conductance,


incremental


subject'


rate


heart


fashion


auditory


frontal


to masked


threshold


EMG


stimuli


when


responded


beginning


subject


15 dB


was


actively


attending


. Only


skin


conductance


level


showed


response


when


subject


was


relaxed


passive


state.


Hence


type


of physiological


response


seems


to be mediated


attentional


state


of the


subject


. Heart


rate


alone


was


faster with sexually-


toned emotional


stimuli


than with neutral


stimuli


Borgeat


al. (1985)


reported


response


akin


perceptual


defense


psychophysiological


variables











stimuli


galvanic


skin


response.


Event


related


potentials


(N100,


P200,


N200


and


P300)


are


being


explored


have


been


found


to be valid


indicators


of reception


of subliminal


visual


stimuli


to differentiate


between


emotionally


-tinged


and


neutral


stimuli


, nouns


verbs,


and


antonyms


and


homonyms


(Urban


, 1992


. Additionally


conditioning


effect


has


been


demon


strated


where


ein


neutral


stimulus


paired


with


emotional


emotional


stimulus


stimulus


acquires


, a


same


response


P300


which


response


resi


extinction


(Kostandov


Arzumanov,


1989)


. Ehlers


and


Munz


(1986)


suggest


that


the


P200,


N200,


P300


may


valid


unconscious


indicators


of cognitive


control


Behavior


habits


Subliminal


messages


have


been


shown


to have


a short


-term


impact


on behavior,


to therapy,


can


ass


and


with


res


repeated


tructuring


exposure,


habitual


as an adjunct


behavior


. 30


years


research


devoted


subliminal


psychodynamic


activation


paradigm


(Silverman,


1983;


Weinberger,


1992


shown


that


visual


symbiotic


messages


per


ceived


subliminally


can


enhance


adaptive


functioning


variety


psychopathological


conditions


, such as anxiety


schizophrenia


eating disorders,


alcohol


and drug use,


depression,


aggressive











controversy

(Hardaway,


over

1990),


these

which


studi


affirmed


inspired


"moderate


meta

and


-analysi

reliabi


treatment


effect


..that


general


zes


across


laboratory


and


subj


populations


"Winning


Mom


190)


Other


OK," "Beating


messages,


OK," "The


such


Prof


are


one,


" "The


snake


are


one


" and


lover


are


one"


have


also


been


tested


found


to have


positive


effects


behavior,


depression,


and


anxiety,


and


phobias


Silverman,


1985;


Fudin


& Benjamin


, 1991


, 1991;


Swingle


, 1992


Swingle


(199


reports


that


writing


output,


speed


lever


pushing


, and


interpersonal


behavior


can


altered


subliminal


auditory


suggestions


Hughes et al.


(1994)


in a


large double


e-blind


random


trial


, successfully used repeated audiotaped suggestions under


surgical


anesthesia


to aid


patients


smoking


cessa


tion.


Dreams


free


associations


famous


1917


study


Poet


demonstrated


that


while


subjects


they


were


had


unable


seen


to reproduce


flashed


immediately


tachistoscopical


a drawing which

ly, initially


inaccessible


stimulus


elements


emerged


content


dreams,


allowing


far


better


reproduction


stimulus


the


following day


(Ionescu


& Erdelyi,


1992


. Thi


finding


has


been











Primary


process


aspects


stimulus


and


significant


detail


of content


which


were


consciously


reported


appear


to be recovered


dream


content


the


nights


subsequent


subliminal


presentations


Dream content can also be


influenced


presenting


auditory messages


to subjects


during


rapid-eye-


movement


(REM)


periods


of sleep


Koninck


& Koulack,


1975)


Methodolocrical


Factors


Auditory


Subliminal


Research


Model


subliminal


research


Three


main


theoretical


model


detection


measurement


of non-conscious


perception


underlie


most


research.


Traditionally,


studi


in subliminal


perception have


relied


perception


versions

without


the


awareness


dissociation

is inferred


paradigm,


from


which


a discontinuity


between


consciously


recognized


the


unrecognized


effects


of stimuli.


requires


major


measure


weakness


conscious


model


perception


that


that


both


exhaustive


exclusive,


a combination


which


difficult


document.


awareness


Commonly


been


, the


measure


subjects'


self


used


index


-report,


the


conscious


validity


which


is ques


tionable,


due


the


difficulty


of ascertaining


what


criteria


subjects


use


when


reporting


and











score


better


than


chance on


an indirect


target criterion while


level


awareness


claimed


on comparable


direct


measures


is no better


than


chance


unconscious


perception


of a stimulus


must


exist


This


model


avoids


the


requirement


such


stringent


relative


measure


conscious


sensitivity


of the


proce


sses


direct


and


simply


indirect


comparing


measures


The


design


assessment


measures


the


present


study


based


primarily


on thi


model


. Whil


both


of these methods


are


currently


in use


, they have been


criticized because


they


allow


some


uncertainty


about


degree


which


stimuli


were


perc


eived consciously or unconsciously


(Jacoby,


Toth,


Lindsay


Debner


1992


very


recent


method


the


process


association


deliberately


through


paradigm


oppose


experimental


(Jacoby


conscious


manipulation


1991),


and


which


unconscious


(Bornstein,


1992


designed


processes


Merikle


Reingold,


1992;


Jacoby,


Toth


Lindsay


Debner


1992


Subjects


are


supplied


with


information


which


will


later


cons


titute


their


conscious


response;


other


respon


ses


are


assumed


reflect


the


influence


subliminal


stimuli


and


unconscious


processes


. The model


so far


somewhat


limited


applicability,


ingeniously


clarifies


issue


unconscious


versus


conscious


processes


Tntensi tv


t J


stimulluI











conscious


awareness


of them has


been


a controversial


problem.


Most


recent


research


tends


to present


stimuli


an intensity


which


but


would


be audible


subliminal


relative


a silent


the


medium <

masking


or at close


sound


range,

ambient


environmental


(Fudin


Benjamin,


1991;


Swingle,


1992


Urban


1992


Thus,


the


auditory


system


and


brain


are


presented


with


problem


signal


extraction


from


noise,


rather


than


signal


detection


, as


in the


threshold


technique.


Urban


(1993)


argues


that


much


the


controversy


over


subliminal


effects has been


justifiably


attributable


to a


lack


of standard


zation


of methods


presentation


of subliminal


stimuli


Reported


relative


making


stimulus


comparisons


intensity


threshold,


and


the


ranged


methods


literature


from


invalid.


to -30 dB


masking


mixing


signals


have


varied


widely,


creating


great


confusion


about


comparability


results.


With


problem


mind


, careful


studi


last


decade have devoted


considerable


attention


the


issue


preparing


and


delivering


signal


which


consistently


and


verifiably


subliminal


Urban

signal pr

audiotapes


(1993)


urges


:ocessing


the adoption of


(DSP)


for research


but


technique


the method he


a standardized


digital


preparation


recommends


involves


high-tech


preci


sion


machinery


and


specialized


software











between


the


masking


sound


signal,


which


can


only


produced


a subliminal


mixing


device.


Benes,


Gutkin


Decker


(1989)


established


an individual


speech


threshold


each


subject


through


masking


music


, then


delivered


stimulus


binaurally


through


circumaural


earphones


at 5 dB below


that


subject'


threshold.


Borgeat


et al. (1981


, 1985


, 1989)


use


25 dB subliminal


suggestions


masked


white


delivered


binaurally


tone


through


audiograms


an audiometer.


at frequencies


from


their


1985


- 6000


study,


were


pure


used


determine


a threshold


range


from


-5 dB to +10


dB at 1000


frequency


identified


nearest


that


the


average


human


voice)


. Then


they


presented


word


stimuli


masked


40 dB white


gradually


increasing


intensities


from


determine when subjects could detect a


sound


(speech


detection


threshold)


when


they


could


recognize


word


(speech


identification


threshold).


Mean


speech


identification


threshold


reported


was


34.6


mean


speech


detection


threshold

neutral s


was


timuli


(consistent


emotional


with


stimuli


perceptual


defense


theory)


Swingle


administration


(1992)


presents


of auditory


research


subliminal


supporting


treatments


groups


individual


seated


between


two


sets


three


loudspeakers











the


most


effective


range


being


from


-15 to -25


dB relative


ambient


or embedding


sound


medium.


Swingle


reports


evidence


perceptual


"dead


zone"


region


just


below


the


content

identifiE


discrimination tU

es a physiological


ireshold,

lower li


around


.mit


to the subliminal


also

range


around


finding


Swingle recommends


caution


corroborated


in group delivery


Urban


, as only


(1992)


subjects


seated


certain


stances


from


the


sound


source


may


demonstrate


the


effect


problem


undermined


subliminal


auditory


effects


many


research


studies


before


was


understood.


Duration


subliminal


stimulus


wide


variety


stimulus


duration


has


been


used


subliminal

requiring


testing.

extremely


Visual

brief pr


stimuli


presentation


have


time


advantage


The


effective


range


for unmasked


subliminal


tachi


stoscopic


presentations


generally


determined


exposure


ranging


from


msec


with


background


illumination


least


as bright


as the


stimulus


illumination


ratio


blank


field


stimulus


field


illumination


ranging


from


to 3


:1),


a rate


of 5


exposures


stimulus


with


interstimulus


interval


seconds


(Swingle


1992;


Groeger


, 1986;


Fudin


Benjamin,


1991











weeks


required.


Silverman


Bronstein,


Mendelsohn


1976)


Masked


visual


presentations


are


generally


slightly


longer,


ranging


from


- 80


msec


with


pattern


masks


from


msec


(Cheesman


Merikle,


1986).


It i


still


unclear


how


short


auditory


presentations


can


effective.


relationship


perception


stimulus


therapeutic


effectiveness


or dose:response


ratio


been


established


. Auditory


stimuli


recent


studi


range


duration


from


ess


than


one


minute


minutes


(Benes


Benjamin


Gutkin


, 1991;


Decker,


Single


1989;


, 1992)


Borgeat


Many


et al


studi


1989;


do not


Fudin


report


duration


or number


of presentations


the


stimulus


Bornstein


(1989)


suggests that


in mere exposure research,


boredom


effects of


or over-exposure


suggestions


to stimuli


. Thi


may


effect ha


serve


not been


to diminish


documented


auditory


masking


studi


es.


Urban


(199


encourages


the


potentiation


messages


using techniques of


compr


ess


ion,


speeding,


or multitracking


sound


studio


, allowing


a greater


number


messages


to fit


within


a time


period


. However,


both


Urban


(1992)


and


Swingle


(1992)


report


that


there


little


evidence


that


placing


high


number


messages


on a tape


is more


effective


than


a few


tracks


minimally


masked


and


produced


with


high


fidelity











Maskina


techniques


One


subliminal


more


auditory


relatively


difficult


material


constant


level


aspects


is that


below


the


of keeping


ambient.


preparation


message


Professional


preparation


tapes


allows


electronic


manipulation


digitization


to maintain


a constant


signal


-to-ambient


level


Urban


(1993)


proposes


the


use


bank


tunable


digital


filters


narrow-band


masking,


which


yields


improvement


S/N


ratio


. Thi


method


of masking


can


only


accomplished


message


using


down


to a narrow-band


a digitized


an order


mask,


and


recording


of magnitude


then records


process


to match


it again


which


the


real


slows


signal


time.


If broadband masking


to be used,


he stresses


importance


obtaining


the


minimum


possible


S/N


ratio


facilitate


retrieval


When


professional


equipment


available,


Swingle


recommends


use


white


noise


because


sound


pressure


embedding


vary


level


medium,


intensity


(SPL)


both


The


constant.


music


subliminal


When


and


using


music


subliminal


message


must


message


timed


start


stop


accord


with


natural


pauses


or drops


loudness


music


"Leakage"


occurs


when


sound


of the


-*~ -- -


a -


-.


'-a --W --- 1 -


macannar


amha~c3 C nn


L -.,


1


mllr: ri rlr


"


t I


r\ rlEl











relative


ambient.


Thus


the


message


always


remains


below


detection


threshold.


Leakage


varies


with


frequency


the


subliminal


sound;


male


and


female


voices


identical


sound


levels


differ


terms


of detectability


when


embedded


an identical


white


noise


medium


(Swingle,


1992)


Swingle


(199


also


discusses


the


use


backward


recording


as masking


assure


that


the


SPL


messages


given


to control


is comparable


that


treatment


subjects


Baseline


evaluation


A review


of auditory


subliminal


psychodynamic


activation


studies


done


Fudin


Benjamin


(1991)


indicates


that


most


investigators


measure


auditory


thresholds


on subjects


before


presenting the treatment.


The measurement of baseline auditory


thresholds


also


advocated


Borgeat


et al. (1985,1989),


Urban


(1992


, 1993)


, and


Swingle,


(199


Outcome


measures


Urban


(1993)


suggests


that


outcome


measures


appropriate


to protocol


that use conscious


available stimuli


are


poorly


suited


case


subliminal


stimuli


Although


verbal


reports


continue


to be


used,


many


researchers


find


they


are


unreliable


indicators


of perception.


He suggests


definition











been


fleetingly


conscious


but


forgotten.


contrast,


upward

traces


trends

into (


memory


conscious


may


transform


traces


unconscious


later


interval


perceptual

(Erdelyi,


1986;


Merikle


& Reingold,


1991)


Forced-choice


(either\or)


responding


has


been


advocated


many


researchers


measure


objective


thresholds.


method


requires


the


subject


guess,


maximizing


opportunity


variables


unconscious


involved


effects,


subjective


eliminates


threshold


hidden


open-ended


responding


(Merikle,


Bornstein


research,

dependent


(1989)


period


measures


1982


noted


1992


delay


resulted


Merikle


that


between:

strong


& Reingold,


subliminal 2

n stimulus

rer exposure


mere


1992


exposure


exposure

effects


and

than


when


there


was


no delay


Conclusion


the


forgoing


review


attests


, a


sizable


body


research


made


clear


today


that


subliminal


effects


are


far-reaching


psychological


sophistication of


hold


considerable


intervention


research design


However,


and theory,


potential


despite


many fundamental


parameters


of perception


without


awareness


remain


relatively


unknown


The


parameters


"subliminal


window"











parameters


dosage


, exposure


time


and


intensity


stimulus,


interval


between


exposures


, number


words


and


letters


that


can be


understood


at rapid


exposure


times


magnitude


the


stimuli


are


areas


which


are


only


beginning


elaborated.


Nor


have


reliable


information


about


the


duration


effect


after


a subject


is exposed


to a subliminal


stimulus


(Fudin


& Benjamin


, 1991;


Mas


ling


, 1992


The


difficulty


scientifically


capturing


subliminal


measured


effects


are


and


subliminal


proving

has wi


that,


weakened


indeed,


the


effects


impact


many


carefully


conducted


experiments.


Researchers


the


field


are


beginning


to stress


the


need


standard


zation


of research


methodology,


but


consensual


standard


yet


evolved


(Urban


, 1993)


The


most


recent


studi


some


key


areas


date


back


1960s,


results


have


not


been


replicated.


These


problems


influence


design


of research


studies,


but


need


stand


way


of making


use


the


information


which


has


emerged


beneficial


adjunctive


clinical


interventions


HvDnosi


modern


scientist,


hypnosis


remains


a fascinating


n h1 ( .r .- nrrCv


eip~ni tA


nl p~p rnczarr


1C ~


C~ n 1 rrm ~


p~apn~


J.a











effective


practice


of hypnosis


invol


ves


elements


of both


science


Some


believe


connects


at times


with


the


source


of human


spirituality


via


the "mind


-body


connection"


(Rossi


Cheek


, 1988;


Rossi,


1989/1990)


Theori


of HvDnosis


Widely


differing


theoretical


perspectives


hypnosis


have


stimulated


considerable


research


and


discussion


over


past


fifty


years


. The


tradition


inherited


from


Mesmer


, Braid,


Charcot,


Freud,


Erickson


defines


hypnosis


unique


altered state of


increased responsiveness to suggestion


a trance)


which


enabi


an individual


to opt


of obj


ective


reality,


accept logical contradictions


experience distortions


in perception


and memory


as if


they were


normal


phenomena


, and


extend


control


body


and


mind


beyond


usual


limits


(Orne,


1977;


Fromm,


1979a;


Shor


, 1979b


Tellegen


, 1978/79;


Schumaker,


1991;


Kihl


strom,


1993)


contrasting


perspective


which


developed


1960s


,associated


most


closely


with


Barber


(1965)


, Coe


Sarbin


(1977


and


Spanos


(1991),


deni


the


pre


sence


altered


state


describes


hypnosis


Soc


interaction


in which


one


person


is motivated


res


pond


to suggestions


offered


another


experiences


involving


alterations


in perception,


memory


and


voluntary


action.


These


a %~no r flf I.


kha ~tr' nre


c! nmnl a 4- mc


-ae


nr; r.,f


Tall 4-h


C Si &IC .... Il ltc rl n I tAI &ll it BClr M -tlc trt 0L~c 'lILA S 0I t2 1t Icai a att rL nA-- 1


.e.


ma'r











Kihl


strom,


1985;


Spanos


1990)


. These


two


positions


formed


two


poles


the


"state


versus


non


-state"


controversy,


had


motivated


research


theoretical


diversify


cation


recent


years,


but


still


has


found


resolution.


Over


the


past


years,


theoretical


model


have


multiplied.


Sarbin


(1977


, 1991)


liken


the


hypnotic


scenario


creatively


to a drama


intera


which


ct in


subject


and


complementary


hypnotist


es.


agree


Individual


with


creative


imaginations


, ability


to suspend


reality


and


skill


role-playing


are


believed


make


the


best


subjects


Wag


staff'


(1981


, 1991)


Soc


iocognitive


model


focuses


motivation


compliance


and


belief


the


hypnotist


as the


key


factors


hypnosis


Erickson


developed


model


hypnosis


based


highly


sensitized


interpersonal


communication


, toward


eliciting


latent


human


potential


promoting


therapeutic


results


(Erickson,


1952


Erickson


Ross


1981


Zeig


Rennick


1991)


Recently,


Hilgard


(1986)


, developing


ideas


originated


Janet


and


Prince


, has


proposed


that


hypnosis


involves


SSOC


iated


state


, or a co-consciousness,


which


can


be communicated


with


ectly


without


the


distortions


due


primary


process


thinking


archaic


symbols


Fromm


(1979a)


, Murray-Jobsis


(1988),


Nash


(1991)


view


hypnosis


special


altered











receptivity


experience


Edmondston


(1991)


and


Benson


Hoffman


(1981)


stress


view


that


the


essential


property


hypnosis


deep


relaxation,


indi


eating


that


physiological


social,


and phenomenological characteristics


hypnosis


as well


ability


to strengthen


communication


with


the


unconscious


mind,


are


the


result


of relaxation.


the


student


hypnosi


each


these


model


illuminates


portion


the


complexity


hypnotic


inte


reaction


. Recently


several


integrative or multi


-factorial


model


have been


propo


sed,


(Lynn


Rhue,


1991;


Nadon,


Laurence


Perry,


1991)


which


take


into


account


pre-hypnotic


cognitive


schema


the


subject,


social


and


situational


variable


transference


and


communication


factors


, subjective


state


personality


skill


factors


thorough


explanation


hypnosis


will


most


probably


evolve


through


furthering


this


integrative


Hypnotic


theoretical


Investigation


process


of Unconscious


Processes


The


concept


unconscious


mind


progressively


penetrated


1784


psychology


post


following


-hypnotic


the


amnesia


discovery


and


de Puysegur


postulate


memories


one conscious


and the


other unconscious


Freud also


often


stressed


link


between


hypnosis


and


unconscious


nrnvn 'acco


rwhi nh


firrU-


nh~ p rv~


s~txrivi nar


hVfft~~ri


uhPn


i


* I*-











symptoms originated


(Stross


& Shevrin,


1969)


. The phenomena


post-hypnotic suggestion and hy

clear illustrations of hypnotic


regression provide other


communication with unconscious


processes.


played


Stross


hypnosis


Shevrin


making


(1969)


stress


available


unique


otherwi


unknown


relationships


between


forgotten


past


experiences,


and


current


symptoms,


dreams,


behavior


and


thought


patterns.


Chertok


(1982)


ass


erted


the


First


International


Symposium


on the


Unconscious


Tbili


Russia


, that


despite


plurality


views


about


unconscious


phenomena


internationally,


the


link


between


the


terms,


hypnosis


and


unconscious,


is universally


acknowledged


Fromm


(1979a)


describes


hypnosis


as ideally


constituting


altered


state


heightened


receptivity.


state


includes both an


intensely focused and


heightened awareness of


specific


external


stimuli


fantasy


that


are


part


suggested


hypnotist


, and


internal


experiential


openness,


which


allows


into


awareness


material


that


are


usually


unconscious


Critical


judgement


goal-directed


thinking


are


minimized.


Psychoanalytic


researchers


have


approached


role


unconscious


factors


hypno


from


point


of view


the


hypnotic


relationship


transference


factors


(Sheehan











absence


any


previous


interpersonal


link


(Chertok,


1982)


perspectivel


ess


overvaluation"


(Diamond,


1988,


143)


Much


power


of hypnotic


suggestion


has


been


attributed


subj


unconscious


archaic


involvement


with


the


figure


the


hypnotist.


Shor


79b)


describes


eight


variables


which


he views


important


underlying


psychological


processes


hypnosis.


Depth


nonconscious


involvement


, depth


of trance,


and


depth


archaic


involvement


are


cons


idered


central


dimensions


hypnotic


depth,


the


extent


of development


along


each


of which


implies


a different


type of


hypnotic


experience


Access


to the


unconscious,


absorbtion,


drowsiness


relaxation


and vividn


ess


imagery


were


five


other


important


, but


nonhypnotic


dimensions.


Observations relevant to the


"hidden observer" phenomenon


SSOC


iative


disorders


have


concept


divided


consciousness


hypnosis


(Hilgard


, 1986)


, which


ose


related


the


concept


state


dependent


learning


theoretical


perspective


hypothesis


zes


a type


of parallel


intermittent


processing


information


which,


some


extent


the

thi


can


subject'


occurs


be made


conscious


executive


as a response


or unconscious


function.

e to deep


In dissociati


trauma.


a decision of

ve disorders,


In hypnosis











respect


to hypnotic suggestions and


a reduction


reality


orientation of


the monitoring


function


Because of


shared


control,


hypnotic


processing


bring


suggestion


the


may


information


reverse


into


divided


consciousness,


such


extent


as the


subject


willing


Beahrs


(1983)


revived


concept


co-


consciousness


, originated


Prince


1906,


to suggest


that


there


always


exis


simultaneously,


within


each


healthy


individual


, more


than


one


consciously


experiencing


entity,


each


with


some


sense


of its


own


identity


and


with


separate


overlapping


conscious


experiences


views


the


"hidden


observer"


hypnosis


simply


one


clear


example


given


that


elements


hypnosis


are


common


many


normal


conscious


experiences


Thus,


the


study


hypno


relevant


to the understanding


of general


waking


experience


SSOC


iative


disorder


the


organic


zing


and


communicating


powers


executive


function


have


become


impaired


, and


therapy


invol


ves


strengthening this


internal


communication and


organize


action.


Approaching


the


connection


between


hypnosis


unconscious


proc


esses


from


psychophysiological


point


view,


DeBeneditti


Sironi


(1988)


found


that


hypnotic


behavior


mediated


some


degree


dynamic


balance











carried


over


Rossi


, Cheek,


and


others


into


the


avenue


psychosomatic


medi


cine.


Psychosomatic


symptoms


are


viewed


being


acquired


a process


of experiential


learning,


through


state


dependent


learning


response


patterns


as described


Selye'


General


Adaptation


Syndrome


Selye


1982


Chronic


mind-body


problems


are


seen


as manifestations


of state


-bound


patterns


learning


which


have


become


encoded


within


limbi


-hypothalamic


system modulating mind


-body communication


coordinates


major


channels


mind


-body


regulation


via


the


autonomic,


endocrine,


immune


neuropeptide


systems


Messenger


molecul


hormones


neurotransmitters


, and


immunotransmitters)


flowing


through


these


channel


transformation


mediate


. Thi


appears


mind-body


to be the


communications


physiological basis


unconscious mind


-body healing which occurs through therapeutic


hypnosis


, the


placebo


response


, and


holi


stic


medi


cine


(Hall,


1982\83;

Cheek, 1


Darby


L988)


1990;


Hypnosis


Siegel,

makes


1986;


p055


ROSSi,


ible


1986;


act


Rossi


simple


sugge


stion on a


variety


of physiological


functions which


elude


voluntary


control


. Ideodynami


signaling


has


been


viewed


some


practitioners


potential


route


direct


communication


with


these


unconscious


psychophysiological


processes


(Rossi


Cheek,


1988;


Cheek,


1994)


. Exploration











present,


have


only


very


limited


understanding


interaction.


Hvonotic


Sucgestibility


Schumaker


sent


(1991)


determining


refers


factor


suggestibility


our


ever-


behavior


Historically,


suggestibility


has


been


viewed


somewhat


pejoratively


determination.


linked


Within


gullibility


hypnosis


lack


, current


self-


concepts


suggestibility,


susceptibility


, or


hypnotizability


evolved


from


initial


attempts


develop


measures


quantifying


hypnotic capacity


the


1930s.


Prior to that


, hypnotizability


was


generally


measured


stages,


based


phys


ical


and


cognitive-behavioral


indicator


the


greatest


depth


trance


that


subject


could


achieve


(Hilgard


1961;


Edmonston,


1986;


Laurence


Nadon


, 1986).


Following


the


development


the


Stanford


Hypnotic


Susceptibility


Scale


(Weitzenhoffer


Hilgard


, 1959)


, the


first


standardized


susceptibility


scale


, the


terms


hypnotic


susceptibility


hypnotic


depth


were


generally


used


interchangeably,


under


assumption


that


depth


trance


could


inferred


from


responses


elicited


following


traditional


induction


standardized


suggestions


. The


concept


capacity


r aca nan


7 tunn+nt r


ct i nn


rnnnfnlindnr


I wi th t


ellll~P


* r











Today


hypnosis


theoretical


are


differences


reflected


about


varying


nature


perspectives


suggestibility


altered


depth


state


of trance


consciousness


. Those who


view


view hypnosis


suggestibility


relative


propensity


accept


communicated


idea


without


rational


critical


review,


the absence of


logic


ally


adequate


reason


(Fromm


, 1979;


Rossi


Cheek


, 1988


Erickson


, 1992


Proponents


of a nonstate


motivation


perspective


particular


explain


form


as a skill


strategic


Soc


interaction


based


conscious


planning


and


thought


(Coe


Sarbin,


1977;


Wagstaff,


1981;


Spanos,


1991)


. More


rec


ently,


others have


suggested that a


capacity


for absorbtion


(Council,


Kirsch,


archai


Hafner,


involvement


1986;

S(Shoz


Cardena


1979b),


Spiegel,

creative


1991), d

imagery,


lepth


or the


degree


involuntariness


responses


(Barber


Wilson,


1978\79;


Bowers,


1982)


characterize


, at


least


part,


level


of suggestibility.


Terminology


evolving


along


with


theoretical


concepts


Although


there


is still


considerable


overlap


intended


meaning


the


terms


, "hypnotizability,


"suggestibility"


and


"susceptibility


"susceptibility"


now


most


frequently


used


allude


specifically


quantified


capacity


measured


standardized


scal











reflect


responsiveness


hypnotic


suggestion,


"hypnotizability"


may


denote


the


capacity


to be


hypnotized,


including


relevant


elements


of thi


capacity


beyond


those


measured


susceptibility


scal


"Hypnotic


depth"


may


figure


into


broader


definition


hypnoti


ability,


although


"depth"


has


begun


to be associated


more


specifically


with


self


-report


measures


of momentary


subjective


status


on a


continuum

trance (


from


Fart,


normal


1978\


waking

1979,


state


Tellegen,


deep


somnambulisti


1978\79


Perry


Laurence


, 1980;


Weitze


nhoffer,


1980;


Hilgard,


1986


, 1987;


Laurence


& Nadon,


1986;


Balthazard,


1993)


Estimates


population


susceptibility


rates


have


been


revised downward as


measurement has become standardized around


response


specific


uniform


suggestions


Hilgard


(1961)


review


summarize


19th


century


hypnotists


estimates,


indicating


that


average


individual


were


deemed


capable


some


degree


of hypnotic


responsiveness


deep,


moderate,


and


light),


the


other


being


refractory


results


nonsusceptibles


laboratory


studi


More


recent


using


estimates,


Stanford


based


Hypnotic


Susceptibility


population


Scal


capable


indicate


some


that


hypnotic


about


the


response


highly


susceptible


, 25%


moderately


, 30%


lightly,


and


additional











suggestion


standardized

compensate


they


approach


are

without


individual


measured


traditional,


adaptations

differences


technique


situational


variable


es.


Children


seem


have


special


capacity


hypnotic


response


Ages


9-14


have


been


shown


the


prime


susceptibility


period,


although


children


generally


exhibit


greater susceptibility than adults


beginning at age


30 months


Within


adults,


age


not


issue


until


old


when


slight


decrease


in susceptibility


has


been


measured


(Morgan


Hilgard,


1973;


perhaps


Edmonston,


the


finding


1986)

that


Related

general


i to thi

mental


age


and


factor,

physical


health correlates


positively with hypnoti


ability.


(Edmonston,


1986;


Zlotogorski,


Hahnemann,


& Wiggs


, 1987)


.Sex


differences


distribution


of susceptibility


have


not


been


confirmed


(Hilgard


et al


, 1961)


Spiegel


and


Greenleaf


(1992)


describe


"fix


-flex"


continuum


personality


style


which


correlates


with


hypnoti


ability


Subjects


with


higher


level


state


dependent


responsivity


to environmental


cues


tend


to be most


suggestible,


trait


whereas


capacities


those


which


with


are


higher


not


level


subject


internal


change


environmental


stimuli


are


least


suggestible.











susceptibility


over


period


weeks.


Morgan


, Johnson


Hilgard


(1974)


followed


group


undergraduates


with


retesting


ten


years


later,


and


found


corre


lation


.60,


indicating


substantial


pers


istence


of measured


susceptibility


over


time


The


possibility


some


genetic


hypnoti


ability


has not been ruled


out


. Shor


Orne


& O'Connell


discuss


(1966)


indicating


hampered in


that


concept


capacity


the novice


plateau


hypnotic


subject by


hypnoti


responsiveness


anxiety


false


ability,


is often


expectations,


inexperience


, but


that


after


several


expert


ences


may


reach


plateau


level


, some


15-20%


higher


which


remains


fairly


stable


over


repeated


assessments.


Several


situational


factors


have


been


found


affect


susce


ptibility


. (Talone


, Diamond,


& Steadman,


1975


Counc


Kirsch,

Stanger,


& Hafner,


1993;


1986;


Gearan


Woolson,


& Kirsch,


1986;

1993).


Hammond


Erickson


et al


(1952


1988;


1992


Erickson


ROSSi,


1982


found


that


subjects


who


did


respond


traditional


directive


hypnotic


approaches


would


ofter

has


respond


been


to indirect


shown


techniques


increase


subject'


. Expectancy


measured


hypnosis


level


hypnoti


ability,


most probably through an attribution process


that


when


intervention


presented


hypnosis


subjective


and


objective


reports


of susceptibility


and


depth











1981; Council,


Kirsch,


& Hafner,


1986;


Gearan


& Kirsch,


1993)


panos,


Burnley


& Cross


(1993)


showed


that


the extent


to which


subjects


plan


respond


actively


suggestions


predicted


behavioral


subjective


indexes


hypnotizability


Provision of


induction


objective


favorable


been


responses


information


shown


about hypnosis


both


to suggestions


prior to the


subjective


On the contrary,


negative


expectations


about


hypnosis


have


been


found


powerful


inhibitors


measured


hypnoti


ability


factors


suggesting


that


many


individual


who


appear


unhypnoti


zabl


may


respond


more


introductory


positively


sess


ion whi


when


ch places


first


presented


the experience


in a


with


positive


frame


(Cronin


, Spanos


Barber


1971;


Spanos


et al., 1987)


number


specific


training


programs


have


been


developed


attempt


improve


hypnotic


susceptibility


(Barber


Calverly,


1964


Cronin,


Spanos,


Barber,


1971;


Crouse


& Kurtz


, 1984;Spanos


et al.


1987;


Spanos,


1990;


Bates


Brigham,


1990


Bates


Kraft,


1991;


Bertrand,


Stam,


Radtke,


1993)


Results


have


been


contradictory,


supporting


best


small


hypnos


augmentation


Crouse


Kurtz


long-term


(1984)


clinical


found


response


clinically


signifi


cant


gains


compare


son


the


impact


susceptibility


four


the


central


components


these











practice


responding


hypnotic


suggestions.


The


82

most


evolved


the


training


approaches


known


the


Carleton


Skill


Training


Program


, developed


Spanos


associates


(Bates


Brigham,


1990;


Spanos,


1990;


Bates


Kraft,


1991)


Reported


immediate


improvements


hypnotizability


ratings


following


program


are


impressive


(87%


of subjects


scored


the high range)


but


longer-term results


are


equivocal,


challenging


the


claim


that


significant


lasting


changes


have


occurred


the


subjects'


ability


experience


hypnosis


(Bates


& Kraft,


1991)


development


measures


hypnotic


susceptibility


permitted


the


exploration


questions


regarding


the


amount


of hypnotic


ability


or the depth


of hypnotic experience


necessary


the


attainment


of certain


clinical


results.


One


puzz


ling


thing


about


hypnosi


that


many


disorders


clinical


improvement


not


related


susceptibility,


measured by response to behavioral


suggestions


(Hilgard,


1987;


Rossi,


1986)


experience


Therefore,


such


as archaic


other


dimensions


involvement


(Nash


the


& Spinler


hypnotic


, 1989)


and


personal


motivation


are


being


explored


potential


explanations


clinical


success.


Measurement


Hypnotizability


and


Denth


of Trance


flt, a a Is -- -- -a


,L. 1.-


r


I------------- _- -_ _


,I


n. .,,,,


L


.i











differing


intensities.


Subjects


who


responded


to weaker tones


while


"reverie"


than


while


awake


were


noted


more


easily


hypnotizable


(Edmonston,


1986)


The


classic


hypnosis


scal


such


as the


Stanford


Scal


Hypnotic


Susceptibility


(Weitzenhoffer


Hilgard,


1959


1962


and


Harvard


Group


Scale


of Hypnotic


Susceptibility


(Shor


& Orne,


1962


are based


on a "performance


ladder"


model,


with


items


theoretically


increasing


difficulty


either


passed


or failed


. The


subject'


susceptibility


related


the


most


difficult


item


passed


. This


type


of scale


based


the


theory


an underlying


ability\difficulty


continuum,


such


that


number


items


individual


can


pass


serves


as an


indicator


of both


the


hypnotic


capacity


of the


individual


and


difficulty


the


items


(Balthazard,


1993)


central


question


with


approach


whether


scal


provide


good


measure


construct


"hypnotic


susceptibility


general


, despite


the


development


several


newer


scales


recent


theoretical


issues,


the


traditional


scales


still have strong


support


from the research


community


(McConkey,


Sheehan,


Law,


1980;


Hilgard,


1981


1987;


Bowers,


1982;


Laurence


& Nadon,


1986;


Nadon,


Laurence


Perry,


1991


Balthazard,


1993).


However,


the


early


1980s


questions


began


arise


regarding


relationship











responding


. The


pass\fail


performance


scoring


system


does


not


take


into


account


the


degree


involuntariness


subject'


experience,


a point


which


is relevant


to the


altered


state


social


interaction theoretical


debate


(Bowers,


1982


Bowers,


Laurence,


Hart,


1988)


More


recently,


factor


analytic


evidence


has


been


presented


that


hypnotizability


may


not


measurable


single


factor


continuum,


but


may


involve


least


two


important


factors


. No


agreement


has


yet


been


reached


what


these


factors


are


or how


they


are


interrelated.


Ability


and


non


-ability


factors,


responsiveness


suggestion


somnambulism


, compliance


genuine


hypnotic


responsiveness


cooperativeness/expectancy


and


absorbtion,


differing


degrees


dissociation


conceptualizations


are


these


some


factors


proposed


(Balthazard,


1993;


Tellegen,


1978/79;


Hilgard,


1981;


Spanos


et al


, 1987)


. Some


evidence


emerged,


based


correlation


the


hypnosis


scal


with external measures,


that


the relative contributions


two


hypnotic


mechanisms


performance


may


items


vary


with


(Tellegen,


difficulty


1978/79,


Spanos


the


et al


1983;


Balthazard


Woody,


1985)


. The


discovery


of a slightly


bimodal


distribution


of susceptibility


scores


on the


Stanford


Hypnotic


Susceptibility


Scal


(Hilgard


et al


, 1961)


been











Although


resolution of


"one


versus


two mechanism"


question


still


the


future


, attempts


improve


the


measurement


of subjective


of hypnotizability


scal


have


to complement


involved


objective


development


performance


evaluations


the


standardized


susceptibility


scal


Several


new scal


have also


been


created


focusing on


specific


aspects


(Tellegen


hypnotizability,


Atkinson,


such


1974),


Absorbtion


Carleton


Scal


University


Responsiveness


to Suggestions Scale


(Spanos et al


, 1983)


Barber


Creative


Suggestibility


Imagination


Scale


Scal


(Barber


(Barber


Wilson,


Wilson


1978


1978


-79),


-79),


Archai


Involvement


Measure


(Nash


Spinler


, 1989),


index


Hypnotic


of nonvolitional


Susceptibility


behavior


Scal


(N-VB


Form


index)


(Bowers,


Stanford


1982)


Measurement


the


dimension


of hypnotic


depth


has also


continued


to evolve,


stemming


from


the


19th


century


scal


Bernheim


Liebault


(Edmon


ston,


1986;


Laurence


Nadon,


1986)


1953;


and


Tart


from


, 1979)


more


. Unlike


recent


the


efforts


hypnotic


LeCron


susceptibility


(LeCron,


sca


which


have


achieved


practical


acceptance


among


researchers


varying


theoretical


orientations,


hypnotic


depth


scal


have


received


consensual


support.


Proponents


of thi


approach


generally


support


the


description


hypno


as a di


stinct




Full Text
xml version 1.0 encoding UTF-8
REPORT xmlns http:www.fcla.edudlsmddaitss xmlns:xsi http:www.w3.org2001XMLSchema-instance xsi:schemaLocation http:www.fcla.edudlsmddaitssdaitssReport.xsd
INGEST IEID EFSUPZ7O7_RE4EWD INGEST_TIME 2012-01-27T19:59:24Z PACKAGE AA00003206_00001
AGREEMENT_INFO ACCOUNT UF PROJECT UFDC
FILES



PAGE 1

7+( ())(&76 2) +<3127,& 68**(67,21 21 5(63216( 72 68%/,0,1$/ $8',725< &8(6 %\ 9,5*,1,$ : 6/2$1 $ ',66(57$7,21 35(6(17(' 72 7+( *5$'8$7( 6&+22/ 2) 7+( 81,9(56,7< 2) )/25,'$ ,1 3$57,$/ )8/),//0(17 2) 7+( 5(48,5(0(176 )25 7+( '(*5(( 2) '2&725 2) 3+,/2623+< 81,9(56,7< 2) )/25,'$

PAGE 2

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f f

PAGE 3

P\ SURJUHVV DQG ZRUN FRQVLVWHQWO\ DQG FROODERUDWLYHO\ IRU P\ EHQHILW ZRXOG DOVR OLNH WR H[SUHVV P\ JUDWLWXGH WR 'U *UHJ 1HLPH\HU ZKRVH VXEWOH \HW VROLG VXSSRUW WKURXJKRXW JUDGXDWH VFKRRO KDV EHHQ RI JUHDW YDOXH WR PH LQ DUULYLQJ DW WKH FRPSOHWLRQ RI WKLV SURMHFW $QG D VSHFLDO YRWH RI WKDQNV JRHV WR 'U -DPHV %RRWK ZKR ZLOOLQJO\ PDGH WLPH WR OHQG KLV H[SHUWLVH LQ DVVLVWLQJ ZLWK P\ ILQDO H[DPLQDWLRQ LQ 'U $JUHVWLn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f f

PAGE 4

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

PAGE 5

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

PAGE 6

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

PAGE 7

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
PAGE 8

/21* 67$1)25' 67$7( 6&$/( 2) +<3127,& '(37+ $8',725< 7(67,1* 5(63216( )2506 / 35(,1'8&7,21 7$/. 21 +<3126,6 0 35$&7,&( ,1'8&7,21 1 6(66,21 7:2 +$1'287 :25' /,676 2 6(66,21 7:2 6&5,376 %$6(/,1( $1' +<3126,6 3/8668%/,0,1$/6 &21',7,21 5()(5(1&( /,67 %,2*5$3+,&$/ 6.(7&+ f f f 9OOO

PAGE 9

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f &RJQLWLYH 9DULDEOHV 0HDQV DQG 6WDQGDUG 'HYLDWLRQV RI 3RVW6HVVLRQ 4XHVWLRQQDLUH 364f 9DULDEOHV $QDO\VLV RI $XGLWRU\ $FXLW\ 9DULDEOHV E\ 6XVFHSWLELOLW\ /HYHO DQG 7UHDWPHQW *URXS $QDO\VLV RI %HKDYLRUDO 9DULDEOHV E\ &ROODSVHG 6XVFHSWLELOLW\ /HYHO DQG 7UHDWPHQW *URXS $QDO\VLV RI 3RVW6HVVLRQ 4XHVWLRQQDLUH 364f &RJQLWLYH 9DULDEOHV E\ &ROODSVHG 6XVFHSWLELOLW\ /HYHO DQG 7UHDWPHQW *URXS ,;

PAGE 10

$QDO\VLV RI 6XSSOHPHQWDU\ 3RVW6HVVLRQ 4XHVWLRQQDLUH 364f 9DULDEOHV E\ &ROODSVHG 6XVFHSWLELOLW\ /HYHO DQG 7UHDWPHQW *URXS 0HDQV 6WDQGDUG 'HYLDWLRQV DQG 7HVW 6WDWLVWLFV IRU /HJ &URVVLQJ 0HDVXUHV E\ 6H[ $XGLWRU\ $FXLW\ 9DULDEOHV 6XPPDU\ RI 6LJQLILFDQW (IIHFWV %HKDYLRUDO 9DULDEOHV 6XPPDU\ RI 6LJQLILFDQW (IIHFWV &RJQLWLYH 9DULDEOHV 6XPPDU\ RI 6LJQLILFDQW (IIHFWV [

PAGE 11

/,67 2) ),*85(6 )LJXUH SDJH +LVWRJUDP $JH RI 6XEMHFWV +*6+6$ E\ 6XVFHSWLELOLW\ /HYHO 6SHHFK 'HWHFWLRQ 7KUHVKROG 6'7f %DVHOLQH DQG 'XULQJ ,QWHUYHQWLRQ E\ 7UHDWPHQW *URXS 6SHHFK 5HFRJQLWLRQ 7KUHVKROG 657f %DVHOLQH DQG 'XULQJ ,QWHUYHQWLRQ E\ 7UHDWPHQW *URXS :RUG 'LVFULPLQDWLRQ 6FRUH DW G% :'6f %DVHOLQH DQG 'XULQJ ,QWHUYHQWLRQ E\ 7UHDWPHQW *URXS :RUG 'LVFULPLQDWLRQ 6FRUH DW G% 61 5DWLR :'6f DW %DVHOLQH DQG 'XULQJ ,QWHUYHQWLRQ E\ 7UHDWPHQW *URXS *UHHQ 3HQ 6HOHFWLRQ %DVHOLQH DQG 3RVW ,QWHUYHQWLRQ E\ 7UHDWPHQW &RQGLWLRQ *UHHQ 5HZDUG 6HOHFWLRQ 3RVW,QWHUYHQWLRQ E\ 7UHDWPHQW &RQGLWLRQ ,QVWDQFHV RI /HJ &URVVLQJ DW %DVHOLQH DQG 'XULQJ ,QWHUYHQWLRQ E\ 7UHDWPHQW *URXS 'XUDWLRQ RI &URVVHG /HJV %DVHOLQH DQG 'XULQJ ,QWHUYHQWLRQ E\ 7UHDWPHQW *URXS ,QVWDQFHV RI /RRNLQJ %HKLQG DW %DVHOLQH DQG 'XULQJ ,QWHUYHQWLRQ E\ 7UHDWPHQW *URXS 5HVSRQVH WR ,QGLUHFW 4XHVWLRQV 364 t f $ERXW 6XEOLPLQDO 0HVVDJHV E\ 7UHDWPHQW &RQGLWLRQ 3HUFHQW :KR %HOLHYHG 6XEOLPLQDO &XHV :HUH 3UHVHQWHG WR 7KHP E\ 7UHDWPHQW &RQGLWLRQ [L

PAGE 12

3HUFHQW 5HVSRQGLQJ 7KDW 7KH\ +HDUG 6XEOLPLQDO &XHV E\ 7UHDWPHQW &RQGLWLRQ ,GHQWLILFDWLRQ RI 6XEOLPLQDO &XHV )URP D /LVW 364f E\ 7UHDWPHQW &RQGLWLRQ 7RWDO 3RVW6HVVLRQ 4XHVWLRQQDLUH 364f 6FRUH E\ 7UHDWPHQW &RQGLWLRQ 5HVSRQVH WR 6XEOLPLQDO &RPSRXQG :RUG 3ULPHV 364f E\ 7UHDWPHQW &RQGLWLRQ 6SHHFK 'HWHFWLRQ 7KUHVKROG L6'7f >$GMXVWHG@ E\ &ROODSVHG 6XVFHSWLELOLW\ /HYHO /RZ0HGLXP DQG +LJKf DQG 7UHDWPHQW *URXS 6SHHFK 5HFRJQLWLRQ 7KUHVKROG L657f >$GMXVWHG@ E\ 7UHDWPHQW *URXS DQG &ROODSVHG 6XVFHSWLELOLW\ /HYHO /RZ0HGLXP DQG +LJKf :RUG 'LVFULPLQDWLRQ 6FRUH DW G% :'6f >$GMXVWHG@ E\ &ROODSVHG 6XVFHSWLELOLW\ /HYHO /RZ0HGLXP DQG +LJKf DQG 7UHDWPHQW &RQGLWLRQ :RUG 'LVFULPLQDWLRQ 6FRUH DW G% 61 L:'6f >$GMXVWHG@ E\ &ROODSVHG 6XVFHSWLELOLW\ /HYHO /RZ0HGLXP DQG +LJKf DQG 7UHDWPHQW &RQGLWLRQ *UHHQ 3HQ 6HOHFWLRQ 3RVW,QWHUYHQWLRQ L3(1f E\ &ROODSVHG 6XVFHSWLELOLW\ /HYHO /RZ0HGLXP DQG +LJKf DQG 7UHDWPHQW &RQGLWLRQ *UHHQ 5HZDUG 6HOHFWLRQ 3RVW,QWHUYHQWLRQ L5(:$5'f E\ &ROODSVHG 6XVFHSWLELOLW\ /HYHO /RZ0HGLXP DQG +LJKf DQG 7UHDWPHQW &RQGLWLRQ ,QVWDQFHV RI /HJ &URVVLQJ 'XULQJ ,QWHUYHQWLRQ L/(*6f >$GMXVWHG@ E\ &ROODSVHG 6XVFHSWLELOLW\ /HYHO /RZ0HGLXP DQG +LJKf DQG 7UHDWPHQW &RQGLWLRQ 'XUDWLRQ RI /HJ &URVVLQJ L/(*60,1f >$GMXVWHG@ E\ &ROODSVHG 6XVFHSWLELOLW\ /HYHO /RZ0HGLXP DQG +LJKf DQG 7UHDWPHQW &RQGLWLRQ ,QVWDQFHV RI /RRNLQJ %HKLQG 'XULQJ ,QWHUYHQWLRQ L/22.f >$GMXVWHG@ E\ &ROODSVHG 6XVFHSWLELOLW\ /HYHO /RZ0HGLXP DQG +LJKf DQG 7UHDWPHQW *URXS ;OO

PAGE 13

5HVSRQVH WR ,QGLUHFW 4XHVWLRQV DERXW 6XEOLPLQDOV 364 tf E\ &ROODSVHG 6XVFHSWLELOLW\ /HYHO /RZ0HGLXP DQG +LJKf DQG 7UHDWPHQW &RQGLWLRQ 3HUFHQW :KR %HOLHYHG 7KH\ :HUH 3UHVHQWHG 6XEOLPLQDO &XHV E\ &ROODSVHG 6XVFHSWLELOLW\ /HYHO /RZ0HGLXP DQG +LJKf DQG 7UHDWPHQW &RQGLWLRQ 3HUFHQW :KR 6WDWHG 7KDW 7KH\ +HDUG 6XEOLPLQDO &XHV E\ &ROODSVHG 6XVFHSWLELOLW\ /HYHO /RZ0HGLXP DQG +LJKf DQG 7UHDWPHQW &RQGLWLRQ &RUUHFW 5HVSRQVHV RQ /LVWV RI 3RVVLEOH 6XEOLPLQDO &XHV 364f E\ &ROODSVHG 6XVFHSWLELOLW\ /HYHO /RZ0HGLXP DQG +LJKf DQG 7UHDWPHQW &RQGLWLRQ 7RWDO 3RVW7HVW 6FRUH 364727$/f E\ &ROODSVHG 6XVFHSWLELOLW\ /HYHO /RZ0HGLXP DQG +LJKf DQG 7UHDWPHQW &RQGLWLRQ 5HVSRQVH WR 6XEOLPLQDO &RPSRXQG :RUG 3ULPHV 364f E\ &ROODSVHG 6XVFHSWLELOLW\ /HYHO /RZ0HGLXP DQG +LJKf DQG 7UHDWPHQW &RQGLWLRQ +\SQRVLV6XEOLPLQDO *URXS &RPSDULVRQ RI $YHUDJH /666 6FRUH DW %DVHOLQH DQG 'XULQJ ([SHULPHQWDO ,QWHUYHQWLRQ +\SQRWLF 6XVFHSWLELOLW\ E\ 6H[ 0DOHV YV )HPDOHV f f f ;OOO

PAGE 14

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

PAGE 15

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f 7KXV YDOLG FRPSDULVRQV EHWZHHQ KLJK DQG ORZ VXVFHSWLELOLW\ VXEJURXSV FRXOG QRW EH PDGH :KHQ ORZ DQG PHGLXP VXVFHSWLELOLW\ OHYHOV ZHUH FROODSVHG VLJQLILFDQW GLIIHUHQFHV IURP WKH KLJK VXVFHSWLELOLW\ OHYHO +*6+6$ VFRUHV DERYH f ZHUH IRXQG RQO\ RQ WZR RI WKH ILYH FRJQLWLYH YDULDEOHV ZLWKLQ WKH VXEOLPLQDOVRQO\ JURXS [Y

PAGE 16

&+$37(5 ,1752'8&7,21 ,W LV LPSRVVLEOH WR XQGHUVWDQG KXPDQ EHKDYLRU FUHDWLYLW\ DQG SV\FKRVRPDWLFV ZLWKRXW KDYLQJ VWXGLHG WKH XQFRQVFLRXV /HRQ &KHUWRN S f 7KH SUREOHP RI WKH XQFRQVFLRXV LV WKH SUREOHP RI SV\FKRORJ\ 6LJPXQG )UHXG >@ S f 7KHRUHWLFDO )UDPHZRUN DQG 6XSSRUWLQJ 5HVHDUFK ,V FRQVFLRXVQHVV WKH PHDW RI KXPDQ H[LVWHQFH RU LV LW PHUHO\ WKH WLS RI WKH PHQWDO LFHEHUJ" 7KH UHDOP RI QRQ FRQVFLRXV FRJQLWLRQ KDV EHHQ D VXEMHFW RI DQLPDWHG SKLORVRSKLFDO VFLHQWLILF DQG SUDFWLFDO GHEDWH IRU PDQ\ \HDUV :K\WH f WUDFHV WKH FRQFHSW RI WKH XQFRQVFLRXV EDFN WR WKH WLPH RI 'HVFDUWHV DQG /HLEQL] ,Q :LOOLDP -DPHV SUHVHQWHG D VHULHV RI DUJXPHQWV IRU DQG DJDLQVW WKH H[LVWHQFH RI XQFRQVFLRXV PHQWDO SURFHVVHV )UHXG LGHQWLILHV %HUQKHLPnV GHPRQVWUDWLRQV RI SRVWK\SQRWLFDOO\ VXJJHVWHG EHKDYLRU LQ DQG %UHXHUnV VWXGLHV RI K\VWHULD LQ WKH HDUO\ V DV WKH IRXQGDWLRQV IRU KLV WKHRULHV RI UHSUHVVLRQ DQG XQFRQVFLRXV HJR GHIHQVH PHFKDQLVPV (GPRQVWRQ 6WURVV t 6KHYULQ f 3V\FKRDQDO\WLF WKHRU\ VHFXUHG IRU WKH XQFRQVFLRXV PLQG DQ LQWHJUDO SDUW LQ WKH ELUWK RI PRGHUQ SV\FKRORJ\ GLIIHUHQWLDWLQJ FRQVFLRXV IURP XQFRQVFLRXV SURFHVVHV DQG

PAGE 17

LPEXLQJ WKH XQFRQVFLRXV ZLWK VXEVWDQWLDO P\VWHULRXV SRZHUV WR LQIOXHQFH DQG VKDSH EHKDYLRU WKURXJK GUHDPV GHIHQVH PHFKDQLVPV LQVWLQFWV ZLVKHV DQG PHPRULHV 6LQFH WKH V WKH ILHOG RI SV\FKRORJ\ KDV XQGHUJRQH VHYHUDO ZDYHV RI VNHSWLFLVP GHVFULEHG ZHOO E\ *UHHQZDOG f GXULQJ ZKLFK WKHRULVWV VWHPPLQJ RULJLQDOO\ IURP EHKDYLRULVWV LQ WKH OLQH RI %) 6NLQQHUf GLVPLVVHG WKH XQFRQVFLRXV VXPPDULO\ DV VFLHQWLILFDOO\ XQYHULILDEOH DQG UHVHDUFKHUV VWUXJJOHG WR EHJLQ DIILUPLQJ DQG GHOLQHDWLQJ WKH SRZHUV RI WKH XQFRQVFLRXV ,Q WKH V WKH LQIRUPDWLRQn SURFHVVLQJ WKHRUHWLFDO IUDPHZRUN IRU FRJQLWLRQ SRSXODUL]HG E\ FRJQLWLYH SV\FKRORJ\ RQFH DJDLQ LQFOXGHG ERWK XQFRQVFLRXV DQG FRQVFLRXV IDFHWV RI SURFHVVLQJ VHSDUDWHG E\ WKH IDFXOW\ RI DWWHQWLRQ ,Q WKLV IUDPHZRUN DWWHQWLRQ ZDV YLHZHG DV WKH ORFXV RI FRQVFLRXV DJHQF\ &RJQLWLYH DFWLYDWLRQ DQG WKH HVWDEOLVKPHQW DQG UHWULHYDO RI PHPRULHV ZHUH FRQFHSWXDOL]HG DV DFFRPSOLVKDEOH WKURXJK ERWK XQFRQVFLRXV DQG FRQVFLRXV URXWHV *UHHQZDOG /RIWXV t .OLQJHU f ,Q WKH ODVW TXDUWHU FHQWXU\ HIIRUWV WR XQGHUVWDQG WKH QDWXUH DQG IXQFWLRQ RI WKH QRQFRQVFLRXV PLQG KDYH OHG VFLHQWLVWV GRZQ D YDULHW\ RI ZLGHO\ GLIIHULQJ DYHQXHV RI UHVHDUFK $PRQJ WKHVH DUH VXEOLPLQDO VWLPXODWLRQ LQFOXGLQJ VXEOLPLQDO SV\FKRG\QDPLF DFWLYDWLRQ DQG VXEOLPLQDO VHPDQWLF DFWLYDWLRQf SV\FKRSK\VLFV VHOHFWLYH DWWHQWLRQ GLFKRWLF OLVWHQLQJ DQG GLFKRSWLF YLHZLQJf K\SQRVLV XQFRQVFLRXV OHDUQLQJ DQG PHPRU\ UHVHDUFK VXFK DV VXEOLPLQDO PHUH H[SRVXUH

PAGE 18

HIIHFWVf DV ZHOO DV WKH EXUJHRQLQJ ILHOGV RI QHXURSV\FKRORJ\ DQG QHXURSV\FKRSK\VLRORJ\ 7ZR RI WKHVH DUHDV VXEOLPLQDO VWLPXODWLRQ DQG K\SQRVLV KDYH EHHQ VHOHFWHG DV WKH IRFXV IRU WKLV VWXG\ $W WKLV SRLQW LQ WKH V LW VHHPV VDIH WR VD\ WKDW D JHQHUDO WKRXJK GHILQLWHO\ QRW XQDQLPRXVf FRQVHQVXV KDV HPHUJHG LQ SV\FKRORJ\ WKURXJKRXW WKH ZRUOG WKDW VRPH XQFRQVFLRXV SURSHUWLHV RI WKH PLQG LQGHHG H[LVW DQG GR LQIOXHQFH ERWK SHUFHSWLRQ DQG EHKDYLRU *UHHQZDOG &KHUWRN &DSXWL 6KHYULQ t 'LFNPDQ 0HLFKHQEDXP t *LOPRUH .LKOVWURP HW DO f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f YHU\ DSWO\ REVHUYHV WKH WURXEOH LV QRW WKDW WKH\ DUH DPELJXRXV ,W LV WKDW ZH GR QRW \HW NQRZ WKH ULJKW GHILQLWLRQV WR XVH S f 7KLV LQYHVWLJDWRU IDYRUV WKH XVH RI WKH ZRUG QRQFRQVFLRXV DV WKH FOHDUHVW GHVLJQDWLRQ WR

PAGE 19

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f KDYH GHILQHG WKH GRPDLQ RI WKH XQFRQVFLRXV DV DQ\ FRJQLWLRQ ZKLFK LV RXWVLGH RI DWWHQWLRQ RU LQ RWKHU ZRUGV ZKLFK LV UHJLVWHUHG E\ WKH PLQG EXW XQDWWHQGHG 7KLV UHVHDUFK H[SORUHV WKH OHYHO RI DQDO\VLV DQG PHPRU\ UHVLGXHV SURGXFHG E\ VXFK VWLPXOL 2WKHU OLQHV RI UHVHDUFK HJ VXEOLPLQDO VHPDQWLF DFWLYDWLRQ LPSOLFLW PHPRU\ DQG SHUFHSWLRQ DQG PHPRU\ LOOXVLRQVf KDYH GHILQHG WKH XQFRQVFLRXV PRUH OLEHUDOO\ DV FRJQLWLRQ ZKLFK FDQQRW EH YDOLGO\ YHUEDOO\ GHVFULEHG RU UHSRUWHG 5HTXLULQJ WKH DELOLW\ WR YHUEDOO\ DFNQRZOHGJH DQG UHSRUW H[SHULHQFH ZKLFK LV ODEHOHG FRQVFLRXV UHGXFHV FRQWURYHUV\ RYHU WKH ERXQGDU\ EHWZHHQ

PAGE 20

DWWHQWLRQ DQG DZDUHQHVV 7KLV GHILQLWLRQ LV XVHIXO IRU UHVHDUFK RQ WKH ZD\V LQ ZKLFK FRJQLWLRQ DQG DFWLRQ DUH LQIOXHQFHG E\ HYHQWV ZKLFK ZHUH H[SHULHQFHG EXW QRW UHPHPEHUHG *UHHQZDOG f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t -HQQLQJV f ,Q WKH PLGV DQ DXGLWRU\ VXEOLPLQDO WHFKQLTXH FDOOHG EDFNPDVNLQJ SXUSRUWHGO\ XVHG E\ WKH URFN JURXS -XGDV 3ULHVW WR FRQYH\ VDWDQLF PHVVDJHV ZDV LPSOLFDWHG LQ WKH VXLFLGH RI WZR WHHQDJHUV /RIWXV t .OLQJHU f $W WKH WLPH WKHUH ZDV OLWWOH HYLGHQFH DYDLODEOH WR VXSSRUW RU GHQ\ WKH YDOLGLW\ RI WKHVH FODLPV EXW VHYHUDO VWXGLHV GRQH VLQFH WKHQ KDYH IDLOHG WR VXSSRUW WKH DOOHJHG DELOLW\ WR SURFHVV RU DFW XSRQ EDFNPDVNHG PHVVDJHV 9RNH\ t 5HDG 6ZDUW t 0RUJDQ f 7KH SRSXODULW\ RI VXEOLPLQDO VHOIKHOS DXGLWRU\ WDSHV KDV EHHQ WKH PRVW UHFHQW IRFXV IRU FRQVXPHUPRWLYDWHG UHVHDUFK

PAGE 21

WHVWLQJ WKH PLQGnV FDSDFLW\ WR DEVRUE DQG UHVSRQG WR VXEOLPLQDO PHVVDJHV 0HULNOH t 6NDQHV 6ZLQJOH f 0RVW RI WKH ZRUN RQ VXEOLPLQDO SHUFHSWLRQ KDV GHDOW ZLWK YLVXDO VWLPXOL 5HVHDUFK RQ VXEOLPLQDO SHUFHSWLRQ LQLWLDOO\ DSSURDFKHG WKH LQYHVWLJDWLRQ RI WKH ERXQGDULHV RI FRQVFLRXVQHVV DQG RI ZKDW LV UHJLVWHUHG RXWVLGH RI WKHP E\ WHVWLQJ WKH SV\FKRSK\VLRORJLFDO OLPLWV RI KXPDQ SHUFHSWLRQ DQG WU\LQJ WR HVWDEOLVK D PHWKRGRORJ\ E\ ZKLFK LW FRXOG EH DJUHHG WKDW WKH PLQG ZDV LQGHHG UHFHLYLQJ PHVVDJHV RI ZKLFK LW ZDV QRW FRQVFLRXVO\ DZDUH &KHHVPDQ DQG 0HULNOH f LQWURGXFHG D IXQGDPHQWDO GLVWLQFWLRQ EHWZHHQ VXEMHFWLYH DQG REMHFWLYH WKUHVKROGV IRU FRQVFLRXV SHUFHSWLRQ ZKLFK KDV EHHQ DGRSWHG LQ VXEVHTXHQW H[SHULPHQWDWLRQ 7KH REMHFWLYH WKUHVKROG ZDV GHILQHG DV D OHYHO RI VWLPXOXV SUHVHQWDWLRQ DW ZKLFK IRUFHGFKRLFH UHVSRQGLQJ LQGLFDWHV QR PRUH WKDQ FKDQFH OHYHO bf DFFXUDF\ LQ SHUFHSWLRQ ZKHUHDV WKH VXEMHFWLYH WKUHVKROG LV D OHYHO RI JUHDWHU HQHUJ\ DW ZKLFK VXEMHFWV UHSRUW RU FODLPf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

PAGE 22

VWLPXOL SUHVHQWHG LQ WKH DUHD EHORZ WKH REMHFWLYH WKUHVKROG DQG RI PRUH FRPSOH[ PXOWLZRUG RU PXOWLSLFWXUHf VWLPXOL FRQWLQXH WR EH FRQWURYHUVLDO &KHHVPDQ t 0HULNOH )LVKHU +ROHQGHU D E 0HULNOH t 6NDQHV f ,QGHHG *UHHQZDOG f DUJXHV LQ KLV RYHUYLHZ RI UHVHDUFK RQ VXEOLPLQDO FRJQLWLRQ WKDW WKH FDSDFLW\ RI WKH XQFRQVFLRXV PLQG WR DQDO\]H DQG SURFHVV VWLPXOL DSSHDUV WR EH VHYHUHO\ OLPLWHG +H SURSRVHV D WZRZRUG FKDOOHQJH WR WKH ILHOG GHI\LQJ UHVHDUFKHUV WR GHPRQVWUDWH WKDW DWWHQWLRQOHVV FRJQLWLRQ FDQ LQ IDFW H[WUDFW PHDQLQJ IURP D WZRZRUG RU PRUHf VHTXHQFH 3UREDEO\ WKH EHVW NQRZQ ILHOG RI VXEOLPLQDO UHVHDUFK KDV EHHQ VXEOLPLQDO SV\FKRG\QDPLF DFWLYDWLRQ 63$f VSHDUKHDGHG E\ 6LOYHUPDQ )RU D FRPSUHKHQVLYH UHYLHZ RI WKHVH ILQGLQJV UHIHU WR 6LOYHUPDQ RU :HLQEHUJHU t +DUGDZD\ f )RU WKH PRVW SDUW WKHVH VWXGLHV KDYH LQYROYHG VXEOLPLQDO YLVXDO VWLPXOL SUHVHQWHG WDFKLVWRVFRSLFDOO\ IRU SHULRGV RI RQO\ D IHZ VHFRQGV HJ HLJKW PLOOLVHFRQG IODVKHV DW VHFRQG LQWHUYDOVf 1XPHURXV VWXGLHV KDYH VKRZQ WKDW FHUWDLQ SV\FKRG\QDPLFDOO\ RULHQWHG PHVVDJHV PRVW FRPPRQO\ 0RPP\ DQG DUH RQHf DOWKRXJK RXWVLGH WKH UHDOP RI UHSRUWDEOH FRQVFLRXVQHVV KDYH WHPSRUDU\ PHDVXUDEOH HIIHFWV RQ EHKDYLRUDO IDFWRUV VXFK DV DFDGHPLF SHUIRUPDQFH DQ[LHW\ OHYHO VWXWWHULQJ KRPRVH[XDO RULHQWDWLRQ DQG VFKL]RSKUHQLF RUJDQL]DWLRQ 7KH VDPH PHVVDJHV KDYH EHHQ VKRZQ WR ORVH WKHLU HIIHFW ZKHQ SUHVHQWHG DW VXSUDOLPLQDO LQWHQVLWLHV 7KH

PAGE 23

WKHRUHWLFDO VLJQLILFDQFH RI WKHVH ILQGLQJV ZLWK UHVSHFW WR SV\FKRDQDO\WLF WKHRU\ DQG XQFRQVFLRXV SURFHVVLQJ KDV EHHQ LQWHQVHO\ GHEDWHG %DOD\ t 6KHYULQ %DOD\ HW DO )XGLQ t %HQMDPLQ 0RRUH :HLQEHUJHU f ,W KDV EHHQ DUJXHG WKDW WKH DXGLWRU\ PRGH RI VXEOLPLQDO FRPPXQLFDWLRQ LV PRUH DPHQDEOH WR FOLQLFDO DGDSWDWLRQ WKDQ WKH YLVXDO EHFDXVH LW FDQ VR HDVLO\ EH UHSURGXFHG LQ WKH IRUP RI D SRUWDEOH DXGLRWDSH DQG GRHV QRW UHTXLUH VXFK IRFXVHG DWWHQWLRQ RU UHILQHG PDFKLQHU\ 6ZLQJOH 8UEDQ f +RZHYHU WKHUH LV VWLOO D JUHDW GHDO RI GLVDJUHHPHQW DV WR WKH FRPSOH[LW\ DQG GXUDWLRQ RI DXGLWRU\ PHVVDJHV ZKLFK FDQ EH DEVRUEHG VXEOLPLQDOO\ DQG KRZ IUHTXHQWO\ DQG UDSLGO\ WKH\ VKRXOG EH UHSHDWHG IRU ZKDW OHQJWK RI WLPH &DFLRSSR t 3HWW\ 0HULNOH t 6NDQHV f :KHWKHU LW LV PRUH HIIHFWLYH WR SUHVHQW D FOHDU VWLPXOXV EHORZ WKH DXGLWRU\ WKUHVKROG RI LQWHQVLW\ RU D PDVNHG VWLPXOXV EHORZ WKH WKUHVKROG RI GLVFULPLQDELOLW\ LV DOVR XQUHVROYHG 0LOOHU 0LWFKHOO 8UEDQ f $V ZLWK YLVXDO VWLPXOL LW DSSHDUV WKDW DXGLWRU\ VWLPXOL SUHVHQWHG DW D VXEOLPLQDO OHYHO KDYH D JUHDWHU HIIHFW WKDQ WKRVH SUHVHQWHG DW D VXSUDOLPLQDO OHYHO DOWKRXJK WKH UHDVRQV IRU WKLV DUH QRW IXOO\ XQGHUVWRRG %RUJHDW HW DO =HQKDXVHUQ t +DQVHQ f 6ZLQJOH f SUHVHQWV D ERG\ RI UHVHDUFK LQGLFDWLQJ WKDW VXEOLPLQDO DXGLWRU\ PHVVDJHV DV ORQJ DV D IXOO VHQWHQFH FDQ EH HIIHFWLYH WKHUDSHXWLF WRROV ZKHQ XVHG DV SDUW RI D WDSHG VHOIKHOS UHJLPHQ +RZHYHU VHYHUDO RWKHU VWXGLHV GRQH WR WHVW VHOI

PAGE 24

KHOS WDSHV SUHSDUHG FRPPHUFLDOO\ RU IRU UHVHDUFK SXUSRVHV FRQFOXGHG WKDW WKH\ KDG QR WKHUDSHXWLF HIIHFW EH\RQG WKDW RI SODFHER XSRQ WKH WDUJHWHG EHKDYLRU 0HULNOH 0LWFKHOO 5XVVHOO HW DO f 8UEDQ f DUJXHV FRQYLQFLQJO\ WKDW WKH ILHOG PXVW GHYHORS D VWDQGDUGL]HG PHWKRGRORJ\ VXJJHVWLQJ WKDW GLIILFXOWLHV LQ UHSOLFDWLQJ DQG FRQILUPLQJ WKH HIIHFWLYHQHVV RI VXEOLPLQDO DXGLWRU\ VWLPXODWLRQ VWHP IURP WKH GLVVLPLODULW\ RI SURWRFROV DQG PHWKRGV ZKLFK OHDYHV LW XQFOHDU ZKHWKHU WKH VXEOLPLQDO PHVVDJH ZDV SUHVHQWHG LQ VXFK D ZD\ DV WR EH HIIHFWLYHO\ UHFHLYHG E\ WKH VXEMHFW +\SQRVLV +\SQRVLV EHDUV WKH UHSXWDWLRQ IRU EHLQJ WKH YHKLFOH E\ ZKLFK )UHXGnV DQG %UHXHUnV DWWHQWLRQ ZDV ILUVW GUDZQ WR GHPRQVWUDWLRQV RI EHKDYLRU ZKLFK WKH\ EHOLHYHG WR EH FRPSOHWHO\ XQFRQVFLRXVO\ PRWLYDWHG 6WURVV t 6KHYULQ f 3URFHGXUHV XVLQJ K\SQRWLF WUDQFH DQG VXJJHVWLRQ DV DQ HIIHFWLYH PHGLXP IRU PDJLFDOO\ SURPRWLQJ PHQWDO DQG SK\VLFDO KHDOLQJ RULJLQDWHG LQ DQFLHQW WLPHV (GPRQGVWRQ *UDYLW] t *HUWRQ f $VLGH IURP LWV LPSDFW RQ )UHXGnV WKHRULHV RI WKH XQFRQVFLRXV UHVHDUFK RQ K\SQRVLV KDV DOVR EHHQ LGHQWLILHG DV D PDMRU LQIOXHQFH RQ WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI WKH SV\FKRORJLHV RI PRWLYDWLRQ DQG VRFLDO LQIOXHQFH )URPP t 6KRU f 7KH FRQFHSW RI D WZR V\OODEOH OLPLW WR XQFRQVFLRXV SHUFHSWLRQ *UHHQZDOG f LV FRPSOHWHO\ DOLHQ WR SUDFWLWLRQHUV RI

PAGE 25

K\SQRVLV ZKR KDYH XWLOL]HG WKH KXPDQ IDFLOLW\ IRU IOXHQW K\SQRWLF FRPPXQLFDWLRQ ZLWK WKH XQFRQVFLRXV DQG DFFHSWDQFH RI VXJJHVWLRQ WR PRWLYDWH D ZLGH UDQJH RI EHKDYLRU &KHHN (ULFNVRQ t 5RVVL +LOJDUG 5RVVL f 1HZ DSSOLFDWLRQV DQG WHFKQLTXHV RI K\SQRVLV EHDULQJ RVWHQVLEOH FOLQLFDO YDOLGLW\ HPHUJH HYHU\ \HDU LQ WKH PHGLFDO DQG SV\FKRWKHUDS\ OLWHUDWXUH 7KH VDPH VNHSWLFDO H\H RI VFLHQWLILF FUHGLELOLW\ ZKLFK KDV VKDSHG WKH FRXUVH RI UHVHDUFK RQ VXEOLPLQDO VWLPXODWLRQ KDV FKDOOHQJHG UHVHDUFKHUV LQ K\SQRVLV WR H[SODLQ WKH EDVLV IRU WKLV FOLQLFDO VXFFHVV &RH )URPP t 6KRU *UXHQHZDOG +LOJDUG .LKOVWURP f 7KXV RQH RI WZR PDMRU WUHQGV LQ UHFHQW UHVHDUFK RQ K\SQRVLV FRQVLVWV RI VWXGLHV HYDOXDWLQJ WKH HIIHFWLYHQHVV RI K\SQRVLV DV D WUHDWPHQW IRU D ZLGHQLQJ SDQRUDPD RI SK\VLFDO SV\FKRORJLFDO DQG HPRWLRQDO GLVHDVHV +LOJDUG .LKOVWURP 5RVVL f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

PAGE 26

+LOJDUG .LKOVWURP 2UQH 5DWNH t 6SDQRV 5RVVL 5RVVL t &KHHN 6WURVV t 6KHYULQ 7DUW f &HQWUDO WR WKH VFLHQWLILF H[SODQDWLRQ RI K\SQRVLV LV DQ XQGHUVWDQGLQJ RI ZKDW FKDUDFWHULVWLFV DQG HIIHFWV DUH HVVHQWLDO WR K\SQRVLV 3HUU\ f VXEPLWV WKDW WKH WHUP K\SQRVLV PHDQLQJ H[FHVVLYH RU PRUELG VOHHS LV DQ DQDFKURQLVWLF PLVQRPHU ZKLFK SURPRWHV PLVXQGHUVWDQGLQJ RI WKH SURFHVV LQ PRGHUQ WHUPV ,WV GHILQLWLRQ DV D WUDQFH VWDWH KDV EHHQ FKDOOHQJHG E\ &RH %DUEHU 6SDQRV DQG RWKHUV ZKR SURSRVH WKDW K\SQRWLF K\SHUUHVSRQVLYHQHVV WR VXJJHVWLRQ FDQ RIWHQ EH H[SODLQHG DV D PXWXDOO\DJUHHGXSRQ VRFLDO LQIOXHQFH VLWXDWLRQ LQYROYLQJ FRPSOLDQFH H[SHFWDWLRQV IDQWDV\ UROH SOD\LQJ UROHUHOHYDQW VNLOOV DQG WUDQVIHUHQFH %DUEHU %DUEHU t 'H 0RRU &RH &RH t 6DUELQ 6SDQRV t +HZLWW 6XWFOLIIH f 2WKHUV VXFK DV 2UQH f *UDKDP f 5RVVL t &KHHN f DQG GH3DVFDOLV t 3HQQD f SRLQW RXW WKDW WKHUH LV GHILQLWLYH HYLGHQFH RI QHXURFKHPLFDO FKDQJHV RFFXUULQJ LQ WKH FHQWUDO QHUYRXV V\VWHP DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK K\SQRVLV DQG RWKHU DOWHUHG VWDWHV RI FRQVFLRXVQHVV 2WKHU HYLGHQFH LQGLFDWHV WKDW K\SQRVLV FRQVWLWXWHV D XQLJXH SV\FKRORJLFDO VWDWH LQYROYLQJ SURFHVVHV WKDW DUH JXDOLWDWLYHO\ GLIIHUHQW IURP ZDNLQJ FRQVFLRXVQHVV VXJJHVWLQJ VWURQJO\ WKDW PRUH WKDQ D VRFLDO LQWHUDFWLRQ LV WUDQVSLULQJ &KHUWRN )URPP D *UDKDP +LOJDUG 2UQH 6SLHJHO t %DUDEDV] f &RH

PAGE 27

f DQG 3HUU\ f UHFRPPHQG D V\QWKHVLV RI WKH WZR SRVLWLRQV WKH VWDWHf SRVLWLRQ IRFXVLQJ RQ ZLWKLQVXEMHFW SKHQRPHQD ZKLOH WKH QRQVWDWH SRVLWLRQ FRQWULEXWHV SHUVSHFWLYH RQ LQIOXHQFHV H[WHUQDO WR WKH VXEMHFW 0RVW UHVHDUFK VXJJHVWV WKDW XQGHU QRUPDO FOLQLFDO RU ODERUDWRU\ FRQGLWLRQV K\SQRWLF VXJJHVWLRQ DORQH LV QRW OLNHO\ WR LQGXFH DQ LQGLYLGXDO WR FRPPLW DFWV DJDLQVW ZKLFK KH RU VKH KDV GHHS PRUDO FRQYLFWLRQV &RQQ /HYLWW HW DO 8GROI f +RZHYHU KRZ PXFK SRZHU K\SQRWLF VXJJHVWLRQ KDV WR LQIOXHQFH EHKDYLRU RXWVLGH RI FRQVFLRXV DZDUHQHVV RU YROLWLRQ DQG ZKR KDV OLFHQVH WR DFFHVV WKDW SRZHU KDV EHHQ D VXEMHFW RI KHDWHG HWKLFDO DQG OHJDO GHEDWHV VLQFH WKH HDUO\ V .LKOVWURP 6FKHIOLQ t 6KDSLUR 6ORDQH 8GROI f 7KH H[SHULHQFH RI LQYROXQWDULQHVV NQRZQ DV WKH FODVVLF VXJJHVWLRQ HIIHFW LV RQH FHQWUDO FKDUDFWHULVWLF RI K\SQRWLF H[SHULHQFH WKURXJK ZKLFK XQFRQVFLRXV SURFHVVHV DUH PDQLIHVW DQG ZKLFK KDV QRW EHHQ GHILQHG RU DVVHVVHG E\ VWDQGDUG VXVFHSWLELOLW\ VFDOHV %RZHUV HW DO 6WURVV t 6KHYULQ :HLW]HQKRIIHU f ,Q DGGLWLRQ FRQVLGHUDEOH OHJDO GHEDWH VXUURXQGV UHSRUWV RI K\SQRWLF K\SHUPQHVLD XVHG WR XQFRYHU FULPLQDO HYLGHQFH $ QXPEHU RI FDVH VWXGLHV ERWK LQ WKH SV\FKRORJLFDO DQG WKH MXGLFLDO OLWHUDWXUH UHSRUW IRUJRWWHQ IDFWXDO LQIRUPDWLRQ UHFRYHUHG WKURXJK WKH XVH RI K\SQRVLV 2UQH 6FKHIOLQ t 6KDSLUR f 'HHSHU LQTXLU\ VXJJHVWV KRZHYHU WKDW VXFK LQIRUPDWLRQ LV RIWHQ RQO\ SDUWLDOO\ WUXH DQG WKDW DQ

PAGE 28

LQFUHDVH LQ IDOVH UHFROOHFWLRQ DOVR RFFXUV UHQGHULQJ VXFK WHVWLPRQ\ XQUHOLDEOH IRU OHJDO SXUSRVHV (UGHO\L .LKOVWURP 6ORDQH f $QRWKHU SDUDPHWHU WKH GXUDWLRQ RI SRVWK\SQRWLF VXJJHVWLRQ KDV RQO\ EHHQ LQYHVWLJDWHG LQ D IHZ VWXGLHV (YLGHQFH H[LVWV WKDW FHUWDLQ VXJJHVWLRQV FDQ ODVW IRU \HDUV LQ VRPH KLJKO\ K\SQRWL]DEOH VXEMHFWV DOWKRXJK WKH FXUYH RI UHVSRQVLYHQHVV VHHPV WR IDGH RYHU WLPH %HUULJDQ HW DO (GZDUGV f )URP WKH WLPH RI WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI WKH 6WDQIRUG 6FDOHV RI +\SQRWLF 6XVFHSWLELOLW\ :HLW]HQKRIIHU t +LOJDUG f K\SQRWL]DELOLW\ DQG IDFWRUV DIIHFWLQJ LW KDYH EHHQ DYLGO\ H[SORUHG DQG GHEDWHG ,Q +LOJDUG FRQFOXGHG WKDW LW LV QRZ FOHDU WKDW WKHUH H[LVWV D UHDVRQDEO\ VWDEOH DQG PHDVXUDEOH K\SQRWLF WDOHQW XQGHU RUGLQDU\ OLIH VLWXDWLRQV S f ,QGLYLGXDO GLIIHUHQFHV LQ K\SQRWL]DELOLW\ KDYH EHHQ IRXQG WR EH VWDEOH RYHU LQWHUYDOV DV ORQJ DV VHYHUDO \HDUV 0RUJDQ HW DO f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

PAGE 29

SHULSKHUDO VWLPXOL (GPRQVWRQ .D\ .LKOVWURP f &HUWDLQ FRJQLWLYH IDFWRUV VXFK DV PRWLYDWLQJ LQVWUXFWLRQV SRVLWLYH H[SHFWDQF\ DQG IDYRUDEOH LQIRUPDWLRQ DERXW K\SQRVLV KDYH EHHQ VKRZQ WR LQFUHDVH VXJJHVWLELOLW\ %DUEHU t &DOYHUOH\ &URQLQ HW DO 6DO]EHUJ t 'H3LDQR f ([SHULHQFH RU VSHFLILF WUDLQLQJ ZLWK K\SQRVLV KDV DOVR EHHQ DVVRFLDWHG FRPPRQO\ ZLWK HQKDQFHPHQW RI K\SQRWL]DELOLW\ %HUWUDQG HW DO 6SDQRV f +RZHYHU WKHVH IDFWRUV DSSHDU WR KDYH RQO\ D PLOG LPSDFW ZKLFK SODWHDXV RYHU WLPH 7DORQH HW DO f DQG LQWHUSUHWDWLRQ RI H[SHULPHQWDO UHVXOWV LV VWLOO FRQWURYHUVLDO %DWHV t %ULJKDP &URXVH t .XUW] f 0RVW RI WKH SV\FKRSK\VLRORJLFDO DQG WKHUDSHXWLF HIIHFWV RI K\SQRVLV VHHP WR KDYH WKHLU JUHDWHVW LPSDFW DQG DSSOLFDELOLW\ LQ VXEMHFWV ZKR DUH KLJKO\ K\SQRWL]DEOH +RZHYHU IRU WKHUDS\ SXUSRVHV WKHUH LV HYLGHQFH WKDW LQGLYLGXDOV ZKR DUH RQO\ PRGHVWO\ K\SQRWL]DEOH RU LQ D OLJKW WUDQFH DUH FDSDEOH RI XVLQJ K\SQRVLV WR DFFRPSOLVK PDQ\ UHOHYDQW JRDOV +LOJDUG 0DGULG t %DUQHV 5RVVL t &KHHN 8GROI f &KHUWRN f DQG 5RVVL DQG &KHHN f HPSKDVL]H WKH SLYRWDO UROH ZKLFK K\SQRVLV SOD\V LQ XQGHUVWDQGLQJ WKH UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ SV\FKLF DQG ELRORJLFDO DVSHFWV RI WKH XQFRQVFLRXV E\ SHUPLWWLQJ WKH FUHDWLRQ E\ PHDQV RI VXJJHVWLRQ RI H[SHULPHQWDO VLWXDWLRQV LQ ZKLFK SV\FKRELRORJLFDO LQWHUDFWLRQV DUH RSHQ WR PDQLSXODWLRQ $ QXPEHU RI SK\VLFDO SDUDPHWHUV DSSHDU WR FKDQJH LQ UHVSRQVH WR

PAGE 30

K\SQRWLF VXJJHVWLRQ 2QH IRFXV RI WKLV UHVHDUFK KDV EHHQ WKH DSSDUHQW VKLIW LQ ODWHUDOLW\ RI EUDLQ GRPLQDQFH IRU VRPH KLJKO\ K\SQRWL]DEOH VXEMHFWV XQGHU K\SQRVLV %DNDQ &DUWHU t (ONLQV 0RUJDQ HW DO 6SHOODF\ t :LONLQVRQ f 7KH XVH RI K\SQRVLV DV DQHVWKHWLF DQG DQDOJHVLF KDV EHHQ ZLGHO\ H[SORUHG EHJLQQLQJ LQ WKH V +LOJDUG .LKOVWURP f ,Q WKH ODVW \HDUV WKHUH KDV EHHQ H[SDQGLQJ LQWHUHVW LQ WKH H[SORUDWLRQ RI PRUH QDWXUDOLVWLF SURFHVVHV VXFK DV SV\FKRVRPDWLF PHGLFLQH WKH UHOD[DWLRQ UHVSRQVH WKH XOWUDGLDQ KHDOLQJ UHVSRQVH DQG K\SQRWLF LQWHUYHQWLRQV LQ LPPXQRWKHUDS\ %HQVRQ HW DO &KHHN 'DUE\ /\GLFN 0LQGHOO 5RVVL t &KHHN &KHHN f $PRQJ WKH SV\FKRSK\VLRORJLFDO LQWHUDFWLRQV DOWHUDWLRQ RI VHQVRU\ SHUFHSWLRQ KDV EHHQ D WRSLF RI LQWHUHVW VLQFH WKH EHJLQQLQJ RI WKH PRGHUQ VWXG\ RI K\SQRVLV &DVHV RI K\SQRWLFDOO\ LQGXFHG GHDIQHVV EOLQGQHVV DQG WXQQHO YLVLRQ DURXVHG JUHDW FXULRVLW\ LQ SDUW EHFDXVH RI WKHLU DSSDUHQW VLPLODULW\ WR K\VWHULFDO EOLQGQHVV RU GHDIQHVV ,Q DGGLWLRQ WKHVH FRQGLWLRQV EHJJHG WKH TXHVWLRQ RI IDNHU\ RU PDOLQJHULQJ %RZHUV f ,Q WKH ODVW \HDUV UHQHZHG LQWHUHVW LQ WKH VWXG\ RI FRJQLWLRQ KDV EHHQ DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK WKH JHVWDOW WUDGLWLRQ ZKLFK HPSKDVL]HV WKH FRQVWUXFWLYH UROH RI WKH LQGLYLGXDO LQ LQWHUSUHWLQJ VHQVRU\ HYHQWV *UDKDP f $ YDULHW\ RI VWXGLHV KDYH LQGLFDWHG WKDW DXGLWRU\ YLVXDO DQG ROIDFWRU\ DFXLW\ FDQ EH HLWKHU HQKDQFHG RU GHFUHDVHG E\

PAGE 31

K\SQRWLF VXJJHVWLRQ %ODFN t :LJDQ %OXP %RZHUV &UDZIRUG HW DO *UDKDP t /LHERZLW] .D\ 1DVK HW DO 6PLWK HW DO 6SLHJHO t %DUDEDV] f DOWKRXJK WKHVH UHVXOWV DUH GLVSXWHG E\ RWKHUV *ROGLDPRQG t 0DOSDVV -RQHV t 6SDQRV :DJVWDII f 6RPH VWXGLHV IRFXVLQJ RQ QHJDWLYH KDOOXFLQDWLRQV LH WKH VXJJHVWHG GLPLQXWLRQ RU GLVWRUWLRQ RI QRUPDO VHQVRU\ SKHQRPHQDf KDYH IRXQG VLJQLILFDQW GLIIHUHQFHV EHWZHHQ UHVSRQVHV RI K\SQRWL]HG VXEMHFWV DQG WKRVH RI LQGLYLGXDOV ZKR WUXO\ KDYH WKHVH VHQVRU\ GHILFLWV VXJJHVWLQJ WKDW K\SQRVLV GRHV QRW DFWXDOO\ UHPRYH WKH UHFHSWLRQ RI WKH VHQVRU\ VLJQDO EXW PD\ DIIHFW WKH VXEMHFWnV SURFHVVLQJ LQWHUSUHWDWLRQ RU UHSRUWLQJ RI WKH VLJQDO &UDZIRUG HW DO *ROGLDPRQG t 0DOSDVV 6XWFOLIIH f 7KHVH ILQGLQJV DUH UHYLHZHG LQ GHWDLO LQ &KDSWHU ,Q VXPPDU\ KRZHYHU WKHUH LV QR FRQVHQVXV DW WKLV WLPH RQ WKH LVVXH RI DOWHUDWLRQV LQ VHQVRU\ SHUFHSWLRQ 6RPH HYLGHQFH VXJJHVWV WKDW FHUWDLQ SHUFHSWXDO SURFHVVHV DUH DOWHUDEOH E\ K\SQRVLV DQG WKDW WKHVH HIIHFWV FRUUHODWH ZLWK VXVFHSWLELOLW\ 2Q WKH RWKHU KDQG HYLGHQFH IURP VWXGLHV GHULYHG IURP +LOJDUGnV ZRUN RQ WKH KLGGHQ REVHUYHU SKHQRPHQRQ DQG RQ WUDQFH ORJLF LQGLFDWHV WKDW LQ PDQ\ FDVHV SHUFHSWLRQ LV QRW DOWHUHG E\ VXJJHVWLRQ EXW FHUWDLQ DVSHFWV RI SHUFHSWLRQ PD\ EH GLVVRFLDWHG RU FRYHUW DV D UHVXOW RI WKH VXJJHVWLRQ FDXVLQJ WKH VXEMHFW WR UHSRUW SHUFHSWXDO DOWHUDWLRQV FRQVLVWHQW ZLWK WKH VXJJHVWLRQ &UDZIRUG HW DO +LOJDUG f 7KHUHIRUH UHFHQWO\

PAGE 32

WKH TXHVWLRQ RI ZKHWKHU LW LV VLJQDO GHWHFWLRQ LQWHUSUHWDWLRQ RI VHQVRU\ VLJQDOV RU UHSRUWLQJ ZKLFK LV DOWHUHG E\ VXJJHVWLRQ KDV HPHUJHG 1R VWXG\ WR GDWH KDV IRFXVHG RQ LPSURYHPHQW LQ DXGLWRU\ WKUHVKROGV LQ QRUPDO VXEMHFWV XQGHU K\SQRVLV +RZHYHU 6FKDUI DQG =DPDQVN\ f DQG *ROGEHUJ HW DO f UHSRUWHG LPSURYHPHQW LQ YLVXDO ZRUG UHFRJQLWLRQ WKUHVKROG XQGHU K\SQRVLV 0RUHRYHU *UDKDP DQG /LHERZLW] f WHVWHG P\RSLF DQG QRUPDO VXEMHFWV DQG UHSRUWHG VLJQLILFDQW YLVXDO LPSURYHPHQW LQ P\RSLFV XQGHU K\SQRVLV EXW QRW LQ QRUPDOV .D\ f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

PAGE 33

RXU XQLYHUVH TXHVWLRQV DERXW MXVW KRZ DQG WR ZKDW H[WHQW RXU OLYHV DUH FRQWUROOHG E\ WKRXJKWV DQG H[SHULHQFHV LQ DQ LQQHU XQLYHUVH RI ZKLFK ZH DUH XQDZDUH EHFRPH LQFUHDVLQJO\ WLPHO\ 7KH UDQJH DQG OLPLWV RI FRQVFLRXV DQG XQFRQVFLRXV VWDWHV DQG SURFHVVHV DQG WKH GLYLGLQJ OLQHV DQG LQWHUUHODWLRQVKLSV EHWZHHQ WKHP DUH WKH GRPDLQ RI WKH SV\FKRORJLFDO FRVPRQDXWV RI WKH VW FHQWXU\ $OWKRXJK DV WKH IRUJRLQJ UHYLHZ VXJJHVWV RXU FXUUHQW SXUVXLW RI XQGHUVWDQGLQJ RI XQFRQVFLRXV SURFHVVHV LQFOXGHV VHYHUDO VLJQLILFDQW OLQHV RI LQYHVWLJDWLRQ ZH DUH VWLOO XQFOHDU DERXW WKH SDUW ZKLFK HDFK FRQWULEXWHV WR WKH RYHUDOO SLFWXUH &RQFOXVLRQV UHPDLQ OLPLWHG LQ HDFK DUHD /LWWOH HPSLULFDO UHVHDUFK KDV H[SORUHG WKH SRVVLEOH LQWHUDFWLRQ DPRQJ WKHVH PRGHV RI DFFHVV WR WKH XQFRQVFLRXV 2I VSHFLILF LQWHUHVW WR WKLV UHVHDUFK SURMHFW OLWWOH KDV EHHQ GLVFRYHUHG DERXW WKH LPSDFW RI K\SQRVLV RQ VXEOLPLQDO SHUFHSWLRQ H[SORULQJ WKH SRWHQWLDO IRU DPSOLILHG XQFRQVFLRXV HIIHFWV ZKHQ WKH WZR PRGHV DUH FRPELQHG 7R WKLV ZULWHUnV DZDUHQHVV QR UHVHDUFK KDV \HW LQYHVWLJDWHG WKH UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ K\SQRWL]DELOLW\ DQG UHVSRQVLYHQHVV WR VXEOLPLQDO FXHV ,W VHHPV SODXVLEOH WKDW WKH XVH RI IRFXVHG K\SQRWLF VXJJHVWLRQ PLJKW HQKDQFH WKH DELOLW\ WR SHUFHLYH RU DFW XSRQ VXEOLPLQDO PHVVDJHV DW OHDVW IRU VRPH LQGLYLGXDOV 7KLV LV D UHOHYDQW TXHVWLRQ IRU WKH ILHOG RI SV\FKRWKHUDS\ DV ERWK K\SQRVLV DQG VXEOLPLQDO VWLPXODWLRQ KDYH EHHQ VKRZQ WR KDYH PHDVXUDEOH HIIHFWV XSRQ SHUFHSWLRQ PHPRU\ DQG EHKDYLRU ZKLFK JR EH\RQG WKH FOLHQWnV FRQVFLRXV

PAGE 34

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

PAGE 35

PHVVDJHV ZLOO DOVR EH FRPSDUHG XQGHU WKHVH H[SHULPHQWDO FRQGLWLRQV $ FRQWURO JURXS ZKLFK XQGHUJRHV UHSHDW WHVWLQJ ZLWKRXW VXEOLPLQDO VWLPXOL RU K\SQRWLF LQGXFWLRQ ZLOO EH XVHG WR PHDVXUH WKH HIIHFWV RI UHSHWLWLRQ DORQH )LQDOO\ WKH UHODWLRQVKLS RI K\SQRWLF VXVFHSWLELOLW\ DQG RI K\SQRWLF GHSWK WR VXEMHFWVn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n YHUEDO UHSRUW RU IRUFHG FKRLFH WR D SDSHUDQGSHQFL VHOIUHSRUW TXHVWLRQQDLUH 'HILQLWLRQ RI 7HUPV $XGLWRU\ DFXLW\ LV WKH GHJUHH RI DXGLWRU\ VHQVLWLYLW\ WR VWDQGDUGL]HG WHVW VWLPXOL LQ FRPSDULVRQ ZLWK QRUPHG YDOXHV $XGLWRU\ WKUHVKROG LV WKH OHDVW DXGLEOH VRXQGSUHVVXUH OHYHO GHILQHG RSHUDWLRQDOO\ DV WKH OHYHO RI LQWHQVLW\ DQG

PAGE 36

GXUDWLRQ RI D VRXQG DW ZKLFK LW LV SHUFHLYHG E\ WKH VXEMHFW MXVW b RI WKH WLPH &RQVFLRXV UHIHUV WR WKH VWDWH RI EHLQJ VXEMHFWLYHO\ DZDUH 'HFLEHO G%f LV D FRPPRQ ORJDULWKPLF XQLW H[SUHVVLQJ WKH UHODWLYH ORXGQHVV RI D VRXQG FRPSDUHG WR WKH UHIHUHQFH VRXQG SUHVVXUH OHYHO RI ]HUR G% 'HSWK RI WUDQFH UHIHUV WR WKH PRPHQWWRPRPHQW VWDWH RI WKH VXEMHFW DORQJ D SUHHVWDEOLVKHG GHSWK FRQWLQXXP LQYROYLQJ GHJUHH RI UHVSRQVLYHQHVV WR VXJJHVWLRQ 7DUW Sf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t 6SLHJHO SS f $OVR GHILQHG DV D VRFLDO LQWHUDFWLRQ LQ ZKLFK RQH SHUVRQ UHVSRQGV WR VXJJHVWLRQV RIIHUHG E\ DQRWKHU SHUVRQ IRU H[SHULHQFHV LQYROYLQJ DOWHUDWLRQV LQ SHUFHSWLRQ PHPRU\ DQG YROXQWDU\ DFWLRQV .LKOVWURP S f

PAGE 37

+\SQRWL]DELOLW\ 6HH VXVFHSWLELOLW\f 7KH WHUPV DUH XVHG LQWHUFKDQJHDEO\ LQ WKLV VWXG\ /LPHQ LV WKH PLQLPXP VWLPXOXV GXUDWLRQ RU LQWHQVLW\ RQ VRPH GLPHQVLRQ WKDW FDQ MXVW EH SHUFHLYHG RQ b RI WKH WULDOV 0DVNLQJ LV WKH LQWHUIHUHQFH RU EORFNDJH RI RQH VHQVRU\ VWLPXOXV E\ DQRWKHU LQ DXGLRPHWU\ WKH SURFHVV E\ ZKLFK WKH WKUHVKROG RI D VRXQG LV HOHYDWHG E\ WKH VLPXOWDQHRXV LQWURGXFWLRQ RI DQRWKHU VRXQG 0DUWLQ S f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f LV DQ H[SUHVVLRQ RI WKH SUHVVXUH RI D VRXQG UHODWLYH WR D VWDQGDUG UHIHUHQFH OHYHO RI G\QHFP ZKLFK LV ]HUR G% 63/ 6SHHFK GHWHFWLRQ WKUHVKROG 6'7f LV WKH LQWHQVLW\ LQ G% +/ DW ZKLFK VLPSOH VSHHFK FDQ EH MXVW GHWHFWHG DW FKDQFH bf OHYHO RI DFFXUDF\

PAGE 38

6SHHFK UHFRJQLWLRQ WKUHVKROG 657f LV WKH LQWHQVLW\ LQ G% +/ DW ZKLFK ZRUGV LQ VLPSOH VSHHFK FDQ EH FRUUHFWO\ UHSHDWHG DW FKDQFH bf OHYHO RI DFFXUDF\ 6SRQGHH UHIHUV WR D WZRV\OODEOH ZRUG ZKLFK LV SURQRXQFHG ZLWK H[DFWO\ HTXDO HPSKDVLV RQ ERWK V\OODEOHV IRU DXGLWRU\ WHVWLQJ SXUSRVHV 6WDQGDUG DXGLRPHWULF WKUHVKROG OHYHO RU ]HURG% KHDULQJ OHYHOf LV WKH VRXQGSUHVVXUH OHYHO UHTXLUHG WR PDNH DQ\ IUHTXHQF\ EDUHO\ DXGLEOH WR WKH DYHUDJH QRUPDO HDU $16, f 6WLPXOXV UHIHUV WR DQ\ IRUP RI SK\VLFDO RU FKHPLFDO HQHUJ\ WR ZKLFK DQ RUJDQLVP KDV D UHFHSWRU FDSDEOH RI UHDFWLQJ DQ\WKLQJ ZKHWKHU LQWHUQDO RU H[WHUQDO FDSDEOH RI HOLFLWLQJ D UHVSRQVH 6XEOLPLQDO DSSOLHV WR WKH SURFHVVLQJ RI VWLPXOL WRR ZHDN LQ LQWHQVLW\ RU WRR EULHI LQ GXUDWLRQ WR EH LGHQWLILHG FRQVFLRXVO\ %RUJHDW HW DO Sf 6XJJHVWLELOLW\ 6HH VXVFHSWLELOLW\ 7KH WHUPV DUH XVHG LQWHUFKDQJHDEO\ LQ WKLV VWXG\ 6XJJHVWLRQ UHIHUV WR D PDQQHU JHQHUDOO\ VRPHZKDW LQGLUHFW E\ ZKLFK PHQWDO SURFHVVHV LQ RU WKH EHKDYLRU RI DQ LQGLYLGXDO DUH DOWHUHG E\ LQIOXHQFH IURP ZLWKRXW LQ WKH DEVHQFH RI FRHUFLRQ DQG RI DQ\ FRQVFLRXV YROLWLRQ RQ WKH SDUW RI WKH LQGLYLGXDO WKXV LQIOXHQFHG 25 YHUEDO PDWHULDO XVHG WR SURGXFH VXFK DQ LQIOXHQFH :HLW]HQKRIIHU Sf

PAGE 39

6XSUDOLPLQDO UHIHUV WR WKH SURFHVVLQJ RI VWLPXOL RI ZKLFK RQH LV FRQVFLRXV RU DZDUH DOVR VWLPXOL DERYH WKH OLPHQ RU WKUHVKROG RI FRQVFLRXV VHQVDWLRQ 6XVFHSWLELOLW\ GHVLJQDWHV WKH FDSDFLW\ RI DQ LQGLYLGXDO WR EH DIIHFWHG E\ VXFK LQIOXHQFHV DV PD\ EH FDOOHG VXJJHVWLRQV :HLW]HQKRIIHU Sf +\SQRWLF VXVFHSWLELOLW\ LV JHQHUDOO\ TXDQWLILHG WKH RYHUDOO RI UHVSRQVLYHQHVV WR D VHULHV RI VWDQGDUGL]HG VXJJHVWLRQV DGPLQLVWHUHG IROORZLQJ K\SQRWLF LQGXFWLRQ 7DUW Sf )RU WKH SXUSRVHV RI WKLV VWXG\ VXVFHSWLELOLW\ DQG K\SQRWL]DELOLW\ ZLOO EH XVHG LQWHUFKDQJHDEO\ 7UDQFH LV XVHG WR GHVLJQDWH DQ DOWHUHG VWDWH RI FRQVFLRXVQHVV UHQGHULQJ D VXEMHFW K\SHUVXJJHVWLEOH 8QFRQVFLRXV UHIHUV WR D FODVV RI SV\FKRORJLFDO HYHQWV ZKLFK DUH DW WKH WLPH XQNQRZQ WR WKH LQGLYLGXDO EXW WKDW FDQ DFWLYHO\ DIIHFW WKH LQGLYLGXDOnV EHKDYLRU 6KHYULQ t 'LFNPDQ S f 7KH WHUP QRQFRQVFLRXV LV XVHG V\QRQ\PRXVO\ ZLWK WKLV JHQHUDO GHILQLWLRQ RI XQFRQVFLRXV LQ WKLV SDSHU :KLWH QRLVH LV D W\SH RI PDVNLQJ QRLVH ZKLFK KDV DSSUR[LPDWHO\ HTXDO HQHUJ\ SHU F\FOH DQG FRYHUV D EURDG UDQJH RI IUHTXHQFLHV UHODWLYH WR WKH OLPLWV RI KXPDQ DXGLWRU\ FDSDFLW\ :RUG GLVFULPLQDWLRQ VFRUH :'6f LV D PHDVXUH RI DELOLW\ WR GLIIHUHQWLDWH EHWZHHQ WKH VRXQGV RI VSHHFK GHILQHG IRU WHVWLQJ SXUSRVHV DV WKH SHUFHQWDJH RI VSHHFK PDWHULDO

PAGE 40

XQGHUVWRRG FRUUHFWO\ ZKHQ D VWDQGDUGL]HG OLVW RI SKRQHWLFDOO\ EDODQFHG PRQRV\OODELF ZRUGV LV SUHVHQWHG DW D VSHFLILHG LQWHQVLW\

PAGE 41

&+$37(5 5(9,(: 2) 7+( /,7(5$785( $V NQRZOHGJH RI WKH EUDLQnV FRQVFLRXV XQFRQVFLRXV DQG SV\FKRELRORJLFDO QHWZRUN JURZV WKH ZD\ LQ ZKLFK SHUFHSWLRQV WKRXJKWV DQG IHHOLQJV LQWHUYHQH LQ WKLV SDWWHUQ LV D NH\ DUHD RI H[SORUDWLRQ ,Q WKLV OLJKW SURFHVVHV RFFXUULQJ EH\RQG WKH QDUURZ UDQJH RI FRQVFLRXVQHVV DUH UHFHLYLQJ UHQHZHG DWWHQWLRQ 6KHYULQ t 'LFNPDQ %RZHUV t 0HLFKHQEDXP &DSXWL +LOJDUG %RUQVWHLQ E +HQWVFKHO 6PLWK t 'UDJXQV f $Q XQGHUVWDQGLQJ RI WKH SV\FKRWKHUDSLVWnV FDSDFLW\ WR HQKDQFH WKH FOLHQWn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

PAGE 42

&RQWHPSRUDU\ 3HUVSHFWLYHV RQ WKH 8QFRQVFLRXV 0LQG +LVWRULFDO &RQWH[W )RU WKRXVDQGV RI \HDUV KXPDQV KDYH ZRQGHUHG DERXW WKH H[LVWHQFH RI DQ XQFRQVFLRXV SV\FKLF RU VSLULWXDO UHDOP IURP ZKLFK GUHDPV LQWXLWLRQ LQVSLUDWLRQ DQG LPSXOVHV RULJLQDWH -RVHSK f )RXQGDWLRQV RI :HVWHUQ SKLORVRSKLFDO WUHDWPHQW RI FRQVFLRXV DQG XQFRQVFLRXV SURFHVVHV GDWH EDFN WR WKH WK FHQWXU\ ULVH LQ KXPDQLVWLF VHOIDZDUHQHVV IROORZLQJ WKH 5HQDLVVDQFH DQG WKH ELUWK RI PRGHUQ VFLHQFH :K\WH f +RZHYHU WKH H[LVWHQFH RI XQFRQVFLRXV PHQWDO SURFHVVHV GLG QRW JDLQ SRSXODU DFFHSWDQFH XQWLO DURXQG 7KH LPSDFW RI &DUWHVLDQ SKLORVRSK\ ZKLFK RPLWWHG QRQFRQVFLRXV SURFHVVHV IURP ERWK WKH PHQWDO UHDOP GHILQHG DV DZDUHQHVVf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

PAGE 43

UDQJLQJ DQG SRZHUIXO %UXQHU .HOO\ :LQVRQ f WKH LQWHQVH VNHSWLFLVP RI EHKDYLRULVWV HJ :DWVRQ DQG 6NLQQHUf ZKR UHMHFWHG XQFRQVFLRXV SURFHVVHV DV XQWHQDEOH +LOJDUG .LKOVWURP %UXQHU *UHHQZDOG f DQG WKH FRPSXWHUEDVHG LQIRUPDWLRQSURFHVVLQJ PRGHOV IRU PHQWDO DFWLYLW\ SURYLGHG E\ FRJQLWLYH WKHRULVWV ZKLFK LQFOXGH VHSDUDWH EXW LQWHUZRYHQ FRQVFLRXV DQG XQFRQVFLRXV QHWZRUNV +LOJDUG 'L[RQ .LKOVWURP *UHHQZDOG f ([SORUDWLRQ RI XQFRQVFLRXV SURFHVVHV LQ SHUFHSWLRQ DQG PHPRU\ LQ WKH V ODEHOHG WKH 1HZ /RRN LQ 3HUFHSWLRQ UHGHILQHG SHUFHSWLRQ DV D FRQVWUXFWLYH SURFHVV VHUYLQJ DGDSWLYH IXQFWLRQV IRU WKH LQGLYLGXDO UDWKHU WKDQ PHUH QHXWUDO UHJLVWUDWLRQ RI VWLPXOL 7KH TXHVWLRQ WKHQ VKLIWHG WR ZKDW JXLGHG SHUFHSWLRQ DQG PDGH VRPH IHDWXUHV PRUH SKHQRPHQDOO\ VDOLHQW WKDQ RWKHUV %UXQHU f 7KH DQVZHU VHHPHG OLQNHG WR QHHGV H[SHFWDQFLHV DQG LQWHUQDO FRQIOLFWV RU GHIHQVHV D ILQGLQJ ZKLFK LQWHQVLILHG GLVVHQWLRQ EHWZHHQ SV\FKRDQDO\WLF DQG EHKDYLRULVW YLHZV RI PHQWDO SURFHVVHV (UGHO\L f 1HZ /RRN LQYHVWLJDWLRQV IRUPHG WKH IRXQGDWLRQ RI FXUUHQW UHVHDUFK RQ VXEOLPLQDO SHUFHSWLRQ 7DFKLVWRVFRSLF LQYHVWLJDWLRQ RI UHFRJQLWLRQ WKUHVKROGV EHFDPH WKH SUHYDLOLQJ WHFKQLTXH %UXQHU (UGHO\L 3ULQ] f 2YHU WKH SDVW \HDUV TXHVWLRQV DERXW WKH GDUN VLGH RI WKH PLQG KDYH EHHQ WKH VXEMHFW RI LQFUHDVLQJO\ PHWLFXORXV HPSLULFDO LQYHVWLJDWLRQ $V SV\FKRORJ\ HYROYHV WRZDUG D

PAGE 44

XQLILHG PHWDWKHRU\ ZKLFK SURYLGHV D FRPSUHKHQVLYH SLFWXUH RI PHQWDO VXEVWDQWLDWHG E\ UHVHDUFK DQG KXPDQ H[SHULHQFH XQGHUVWDQGLQJ WKDW ZKLFK LQIOXHQFHV RXU EHKDYLRU EXW RI ZKLFK ZH DUH XQDZDUH LV HVVHQWLDO WR FRPSOHWLQJ WKH SLFWXUH 0HLFKHQEDXP t *LOPRUH &DSXWL *UHHQZDOG E /RIWXV t .OLQJHU .LKOVWURP %DUQKDUGW t 7DWDU\Q -RVHSK (SVWHLQ f $ FHQWUDO LQWHQW RI H[SORUDWLRQ LQ WKH ILHOGV RI K\SQRVLV DQG VXEOLPLQDO SHUFHSWLRQ KDV EHHQ D VHDUFK IRU HYLGHQFH WR SURYH RU GLVSURYH WKHRULHV RI XQFRQVFLRXV SURFHVVHV GHYHORSHG E\ )UHXG -XQJ DQG -DQHW $ VLJQLILFDQW ERG\ RI ZRUN LQ VXEOLPLQDO SHUFHSWLRQ DQG QHXURSV\FKRORJ\ FXUUHQWO\ ILQGLQJ VXEVWDQWLDO YDOLGDWLRQ VWHPV IURP )UHXGnV WKHRU\ RI WKH G\QDPLF XQFRQVFLRXV ZKLFK SURWHFWV WKH HJR WKURXJK GHIHQVH PHFKDQLVPV DQG LQIOXHQFHV EHKDYLRU DQG LQWUDSV\FKLF HYHQWV :LQVRQ .HOO\ 'L[RQ t +HQOH\ +HQOH\ +HQWVFKHO t 6FKQHLGHU :HVWHUOXQGK t 6MREDFN f -XQJnV WKHRU\ RI WKH FROOHFWLYH XQFRQVFLRXV DQG LWV LQKHUHQW DUFKHW\SHV DOVR EHLQJ WKURXJK GHYHORSPHQWDO VWXGLHV K\SQRVLV DQG ZRUN RQ EUDLQ LQMXULHV .HOO\ -RVHSK f )UHXGLDQ DQG -XQJLDQ WKHRULHV RI GUHDP V\PEROLVP DUH EHLQJ H[SORUHG WKURXJK K\SQRVLV VOHHS UHVHDUFK DQG VXEOLPLQDO SHUFHSWLRQ UHVHDUFK )LVKHU :LQVRQ .DVHU 6KHYULQ +LOJDUG .HOO\ f $QG -DQHWnV FRQFHSW RI GHVDDUHDDWLRQ WUDQVODWHG GLVVRFLDWLRQ KDV IRXQG LQFUHDVLQJ YDOLGDWLRQ

PAGE 45

WKURXJK UHFHQW ZRUN RQ PXOWLSOH SHUVRQDOLW\ DQG RQ WKH KLGGHQ REVHUYHU SKHQRPHQRQ LQ K\SQRVLV +LOJDUG 3HUU\ t /DXUHQFH .LKOVWURP .HOO\ 5KXH t /\QQ f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t +LOJDUG :DUULQJWRQ t :HLVNUDQW] %RZHUV 6DUELQ t 6ODJOH 'L[RQ :LQVRQ -RVHSK f ,W LV FOHDU WKDW WKH WZR KDOYHV RI WKH EUDLQ RIWHQ SHUFHLYH WKLQJV GLIIHUHQWO\ KDYH GLIIHUHQW PHPRULHV WULJJHUHG LQ UHVSRQVH WR WKRVH SHUFHSWLRQV DQG UHDFK GLIIHUHQW DQG FRQIOLFWLQJ FRQFOXVLRQV DERXW WKH VDPH SLHFH RI LQIRUPDWLRQ :LQVRQ -RVHSK f $V OHIW DQG ULJKW EUDLQ IXQFWLRQV DQG WKHLU LQWHUDFWLRQV DUH GLIIHUHQWLDWHG SDUDOOHOV KDYH HPHUJHG EHWZHHQ ULJKW EUDLQ IXQFWLRQLQJ DQG XQFRQVFLRXV SURFHVVHV DQG EHWZHHQ WKH OLPELF V\VWHP DQG WKH )UHXGLDQ FRQFHSW RI WKH ,G :LQVRQ -RVHSK f ,QKLELWLRQ RI QHXURQDO WUDQVPLVVLRQ DFURVV WKH FHUHEUDO FRPPLVVXUHV DSSHDUV

PAGE 46

WR IXQFWLRQDOO\ GLVFRQQHFW WKH WZR KHPLVSKHUHV LQ D SURFHVV UHODWHG WR GLVVRFLDWLRQ DQG UHSUHVVLRQ DUHDV WRSLFDO LQ K\SQRVLV UHVHDUFK *DOLQ f )XUWKHU FRUURERUDWLRQ RI VXEOLPLQDO SHUFHSWLRQ H[SHULPHQWDWLRQ KDV FRPH IURP QHXURSK\VLRORJLFDO UHVHDUFK RQ LQIRUPDWLRQ SURFHVVLQJ ZKLFK VXJJHVWV WKDW WKH ULJKW EUDLQ IROORZV D IDVW PRGH RI SDUDOOHO SURFHVVLQJ ZKLOH OHIWEUDLQ SURFHVVLQJ WDNHV VORZHU VHTXHQWLDO SDWKZD\V .LKOVWURP f 7KHRUHWLFDO 3HUVSHFWLYHV 7KHVH VFLHQWLILF DGYDQFHV KDYH QRW FRPH ZLWKRXW LPSDFW RQ WKHRU\ 6KHYULQ DQG 'LFNPDQ FRQFOXGHG LQ WKDW QR FRQWHPSRUDU\ SV\FKRORJLFDO WKHRU\ FDQ RPLW XQFRQVFLRXV PHQWDO SURFHVVHV 6KHYULQ t 'LFNPDQ f $ UHFHQW W\SRORJ\ LGHQWLILHV KXQGUHGV RI WKHRULHV RI WKH XQFRQVFLRXV DQG RUJDQL]HV WKHP LQWR IRXU PDLQ SHUVSHFWLYHV ELRSK\VLFDO SV\FKRSHUVRQDO VRFLRFXOWXUDO DQG WUDQVSHUVRQDOVSLULWXDO &DSXWL f ,QWHJUDWLRQ RI WKHVH GLYHUVH RXWORRNV LV OLPLWHG EXW SURJUHVVLQJ &XUUHQW GHVFULSWLRQV RI PHQWDO DFWLYLW\ JHQHUDOO\ SRVLW RQH UHDOP RI PHQWDO SURFHVVHV FRQWLQXRXV DQG PDLQO\ XQFRQVFLRXV RI ZKLFK RQO\ D IHZ WUDQVLWRU\ DVSHFWV DUH DFFHVVLEOH WR LPPHGLDWH FRQVFLRXV DWWHQWLRQ :K\WH 'L[RQ ,PKRII -RKQVWRQ t 'DUN +HQWVFKHO 6PLWK t 'UDJXQV f $ORQJVLGH WKH G\QDPLF XQFRQVFLRXV RI )UHXG KDV HYROYHG D FRQFHSW RI WKH FRJQLWLYH XQFRQVFLRXV DQ

PAGE 47

DGDSWLYH V\VWHP WKDW DXWRPDWLFDOO\ DQG LQWXLWLYHO\ RUJDQL]HV H[SHULHQFH DQG GLUHFWV EHKDYLRU 0RVW LQIRUPDWLRQ SURFHVVLQJ RFFXUV DXWRPDWLFDOO\ RXWVLGH RI DZDUHQHVV EHFDXVH WKDW PRGH LV IDU PRUH HIILFLHQW WKDQ FRQVFLRXV GHOLEHUDWLYH WKLQNLQJ 7KLV PD\ KDSSHQ ZKLOH ZDNLQJ RU GXULQJ GUHDP VWDWHV :LQVRQ .LKOVWURP -RVHSK f 8QFRQVFLRXV SHUFHSWLRQ LV XQGHUVWRRG WR SUHFHGH FRQVFLRXV H[SHULHQFH DQG VHW RII D PXOWLIDFHWHG SURFHVV ZKLFK DXWRPDWLFDOO\ UHGHVFULEHV VHQVRU\ GDWD LQWR HYHU\ UHSUHVHQWDWLRQDO IRUP NQRZQ WR WKH RUJDQLVP 6XFK SURFHVVHV FUHDWH UHFRUGV RI HDFK UHSUHVHQWDWLRQ SURGXFH YDULHG SHUFHSWXDO K\SRWKHVHV DFWLYDWH UHODWHG VWUXFWXUHV LQ WKH EUDLQ DQG LQIOXHQFH DQDORJ DVSHFWV RI DFWLRQV 0DUFHO E 6KHYULQ t 'LFNPDQ 'L[RQ .LKOVWURP 0DGVHQ -RVHSK .LKOVWURP %DUQKDUGW t 7DWDU\Q Ef &RQVFLRXVQHVV LV YLHZHG DV D ODWHU RSWLRQDO VWDJH LQ FRJQLWLRQ 6WLPXOXV IDFWRUV VWDWH IDFWRUV DQG PRWLYDWLRQDO IDFWRUV LQWHUDFW WR GHWHUPLQH ZKDW QHHGV WR HQWHU FRQVFLRXVQHVV 6KHYULQ t 'LFNPDQ .LKOVWURP -RVHSK (SVWHLQ f 7KH HQVXLQJ FRQVFLRXV SKHQRPHQRQ LV D FRQVWUXFWLYH DWWHPSW WR PDNH VHQVH RI DV PXFK IXQFWLRQDOO\ XVHIXO GDWD DV SRVVLEOH IURP XQFRQVFLRXV SURFHVVHV UDWKHU WKDQ D GLUHFW UHIOHFWLRQ RI WKH LQWHUQDO UHSUHVHQWDWLRQV \LHOGHG E\ WKH SHUFHSWXDO SURFHVV 0DUFHO Ef $Q RUJDQL]HG NQRZOHGJH VWUXFWXUH DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK WKH VHOI DV DJHQW RU H[SHULHQFH DQG UHVLGLQJ LQ ZRUNLQJ PHPRU\ LV

PAGE 48

EHOLHYHG WR FRQIHU FRQVFLRXV DZDUHQHVV E\ FRLQLQJ LQ FRQWDFW ZLWK HQYLURQPHQWDO FXHV DQG RWKHU NQRZOHGJH VWUXFWXUHV DFWLYDWHG E\ SHUFHSWLRQ DQG WKRXJKWV &RQVFLRXVQHVV DGGV WR WKH SKHQRPHQRQ RI DZDUHQHVV WKH DELOLW\ WR EDVH LQWHQWLRQDO DFWLRQ XSRQ DQ H[SHULHQFH 0DUFHO Ef 7KLV FRQQHFWLRQ ZLWK WKH FRQFHSW RI VHOI LV DEVHQW LQ XQFRQVFLRXV SURFHVVHV VXFK DV VXEOLPLQDO SHUFHSWLRQ DQG K\SQRWLF UHVSRQVH WR VXJJHVWLRQ .LKOVWURP %DUQKDUGW t 7DWDU\Q Ef &RJQLWLYHH[SHULHQWLDO VHOI WKHRU\ (SVWHLQ f DVVXPHV WKH H[LVWHQFH RI WZR SDUDOOHO LQWHUDFWLQJ PRGHV RI LQIRUPDWLRQ SURFHVVLQJ D UDWLRQDO V\VWHP DQG DQ HPRWLRQDOO\ GULYHQ H[SHULHQWLDO V\VWHP LQWHJUDWLQJ WKH FRJQLWLYH DQG WKH SV\FKRG\QDPLF XQFRQVFLRXV 7KHVH WZR SURFHVVHV FROODERUDWH IRU RSWLPDO PHQWDO KHDOWK DQG SV\FKRSDWKRORJ\ PD\ HYROYH ZKHQ HLWKHU V\VWHP LV QRW VXSSRUWHG E\ WKH RWKHU %HDKUV f KDV VXJJHVWHG WKH WHUP FRFRQVFLRXVQHVV WR GHVFULEH WKH VLWXDWLRQ RI GXDO OHYHOV RI DZDUHQHVV D SKHQRPHQRQ ZKLFK KH GHVFULEHV DV D XQLYHUVDO IHDWXUH RI KHDOWK\ OLYLQJ 1HRGLVVRFLDWLRQ WKHRU\ +LOJDUG f DVVHUWV WKDW D WHPSRUDULO\ GLVVRFLDWHG VHW RI H[SHULHQFHV RI ZKLFK WKH PLQG UHWDLQV DQ DZDUHQHVV RXWVLGH RI FRQVFLRXVQHVV PD\ GLUHFWO\ LQIOXHQFH EHKDYLRU ZLWKRXW WKH LQGLYLGXDOnV DZDUHQHVV 7KLV GLVVRFLDWLRQ LV EHOLHYHG WR UHSUHVHQW D GHFLVLRQ WR DEGLFDWH H[HFXWLYH FRQWURO RYHU WKRVH H[SHULHQFHV DQG WR EH UHYHUVLEOH DW DQ\ WLPH E\ WKH VDPH PHFKDQLVP ZKLFK

PAGE 49

FUHDWHG LW +\SQRWLF VXJJHVWLRQ FDQ FUHDWH WKLV W\SH RI UHVSRQVH LQ VRPH LQGLYLGXDOV 2QH VWURQJ FRQWHPSRUDU\ WUHQG GHDOV ZLWK WKH LQWHJUDWLRQ RI WRWDO PLQG KHDOLQJ WKHRULHV RULJLQDWLQJ LQ (DVWHUQ PHGLFLQH DQG UHOLJLRXV SKLORVRSK\ ZLWK SV\FKRORJ\ SULPDULO\ WKURXJK PHGLWDWLYH WHFKQLJXHV %HQVRQ f DVVHUWV WKDW LQFUHDVHG FRPPXQLFDWLRQ EHWZHHQ WKH ULJKW DQG OHIW KHPLVSKHUHV RI WKH EUDLQ DFKLHYHG WKURXJK GDLO\ HOLFLWDWLRQ RI WKH UHOD[DWLRQ UHVSRQVH FDQ VWUHQJWKHQ WKH FDSDFLW\ RI WKH XQFRQVFLRXV PLQG WR RYHUFRPH VWUHVV DQG PD[LPL]H WKH FRQWULEXWLRQ RI PLQGERG\ LQWHUDFWLRQ WR SHUVRQDO ZHOOQHVV 5RVVL f GHVFULEHV QDWXUDO XOWUDGLDQ YDULDWLRQV LQ FRQVFLRXVQHVV LQFOXGLQJ SHULRGLF EULHI KHDOLQJ SHULRGV GXULQJ ZKLFK DFFHVV WR XQFRQVFLRXV SURFHVVHV LV IDFLOLWDWHG DQG FDQ EH XVHG IRU SV\FKRORJLFDO JURZWK SUREOHP VROYLQJ DQG PLQGERG\ KHDOLQJ 6LHJHO f LQFOXGHV WKH HIIHFWV RI PHGLWDWLYH SUD\HU DQG VSLULWXDO HQHUJL]LQJ WKURXJK XQLRQ ZLWK D /LIH )RUFH DV DQ HVVHQWLDO SDWKZD\ RI WKLV PLQGERG\ ZHOOQHVV FRQQHFWLRQ 0DQ\ WKHRULVWV H[SUHVV IUXVWUDWLRQ FRQFHUQ RU ZDULQHVV RYHU WKH SUREOHPV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK WKH VWXG\ RI PHQWDO SURFHVVHV RXWVLGH RI DZDUHQHVV &DSXWL f DQG (UGHO\L f SRLQW RXW WKDW WKHUH LV QR ILUP GLYLGLQJ OLQH EHWZHHQ FRQVFLRXV DZDUHQHVV DQG XQFRQVFLRXVQHVV UDWKHU WKH GHILQLWLRQ RI XQFRQVFLRXV LV PRVW DFFXUDWHO\ FRQFHLYHG RI DV FORVHQHVV RI ILW ZLWK D OLVW RI ORRVH FULWHULD (UGHO\L f DVVHUWV IXUWKHUPRUH WKDW WKH WLPH DQG PDQQHU LQ ZKLFK WKH

PAGE 50

VXEMHFW LV WHVWHG \LHOGV GLIIHUHQW PHDVXUHV RI DFFHVVLELOLW\ WR FRQVFLRXVQHVV ZKDW DSSHDUV WR EH XQFRQVFLRXV XQGHU RQH W\SH RI LQTXLU\ DSSHDUV WR EH FRQVFLRXV RU SDUWLDOO\ FRQVFLRXV XQGHU DQRWKHU W\SH RU DW DQRWKHU WLPH $ZDUHQHVV RI WKH OLPLWV RI VFLHQWLILF UHVHDUFK LV JURZLQJ KRZHYHU DQG WKH OLPLWHG VFRSH RI ODERUDWRU\ GHPRQVWUDWLRQV LV QRW FRQVLGHUHG SURRI WKDW XQFRQVFLRXV PHPRULHV DUH QRW ERWK FRPSOH[ DQG LQIOXHQWLDO (UGHO\L 0HULNOH t 5HLQJROG f &DSXWL f $UFKDUG f DQG RWKHUV IURP YDULRXV SHUVSHFWLYHV FDXWLRQ DJDLQVW UHLILFDWLRQ RI WKH XQFRQVFLRXV VXJJHVWLQJ WKDW WKH ZRUG LV PRVW DFFXUDWHO\ XVHG DV DQ DGMHFWLYH %HFDXVH RI WKH GLYHUVH GHQRWDWLRQV DVFULEHG WR WKH XQFRQVFLRXV (UGHO\L f IDYRUV UHDFFHSWDQFH RI WKH FRQFHSW ZLWK UHVHUYDWLRQV *UHHQZDOG f DOVR FRQFOXGHV WKDW WKH XQFRQVFLRXV PLQG LV VHYHUHO\ OLPLWHG LQ LWV DQDO\WLF FDSDFLW\ S f XQGHUVWDQGLQJ QRWKLQJ PRUH VRSKLVWLFDWHG WKDQ SDUWLDO PHDQLQJV RI VLQJOH ZRUGV DQG FDSDEOH RI OHDUQLQJ RQO\ D IUDFWLRQ RI ZKDW WKH FRQVFLRXV PLQG FDQ OHDUQ +H LQGLFDWHV WKDW XQOHVV EHWWHU HYLGHQFH LV IRUWKFRPLQJ LW ZLOO VRRQ EH WLPH WR DEDQGRQ SV\FKRDQDO\WLF WKHRU\nV SURSRVDO WKDW XQFRQVFLRXV FRJQLWLRQ LV WKH SHHU RU WKH VXSHULRU RI FRQVFLRXV FRJQLWLRQ &DSXWL f FRQFOXGHV WKDW WKH K\SRWKHVLV RI DQ XQFRQVFLRXV DFFRXQWV IRU H[SHULHQFHV EXW LV QRW D QHFHVVDU\ RU VHOIHYLGHQW SURRI DQG LV QHLWKHU WKH RQO\ QRU WKH PRVW ORJLFDO H[SODQDWLRQ IRU WKRVH H[SHULHQFHV

PAGE 51

,VVXHV RI 'HILQLWLRQ DQG 7HUPLQRORJ\ )RU ODFN RI D PRUH SUHFLVH XQGHUVWDQGLQJ WKH PDMRULW\ RI WKH OLWHUDWXUH WRGD\ XVHV WKH WHUP XQFRQVFLRXV WR UHIHU WR DOO QRQFRQVFLRXV SURFHVVHV DQG WKDW WHUP KDV EHHQ XVHG LQ WKLV SURMHFW $ IHZ DWWHPSWV KDYH EHHQ PDGH WR GLIIHUHQWLDWH EHWZHHQ IDFHWV RI WKH QRQFRQVFLRXV PLQG .LKOVWURP f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f $ WKLUG FDWHJRU\ VXEFRQVFLRXV PHQWDO SURFHVVHV LQFOXGHV PHQWDO UHSUHVHQWDWLRQV ZKLFK DUH DERYH WKH WKUHVKROG RUGLQDULO\ UHTXLUHG IRU UHSUHVHQWDWLRQ LQ ZRUNLQJ PHPRU\ DQG DYDLODEOH WR LQWURVSHFWLRQ XQGHU VRPH FRQGLWLRQV EXW DUH QRQHWKHOHVV LQDFFHVVLEOH WR DZDUHQHVV HJ K\SQRVLVf $QRWKHU VXEJURXS RI UHVHDUFKHUV XVH WKH GHVLJQDWLRQ XQFRQVFLRXV IRU SKHQRPHQD WKDW FDQQRW EH GHOLEHUDWHO\ EURXJKW LQWR FRQVFLRXV DZDUHQHVV E\ HIIRUWV RI WKH FRQVFLRXV PLQG EXW PD\ EH UHWULHYHG WKURXJK LQGLUHFW FXHV EHKDYLRUDO LQGLFDWRUV GUHDPV RU IUHH DVVRFLDWLRQV 0RVW UHVHDUFKHUV ZRXOG DJUHH WKDW VXEOLPLQDO HIIHFWV JHQHUDOO\ IDOO LQ WKLV

PAGE 52

FDWHJRU\ &DSXWL $QGHUVVRQ t %HQJWVVRQ +HQWVFKHO 6PLWK t 'UDJXQV .LKOVWURP %RUQVWHLQ -DFRE\ /LQGVD\ t 7RWK *UHHQZDOG 0HULNOH t 5HLQJROG f 3KHQRPHQD GHHPHG VXEFRQVFLRXV ZKLOH QRW DYDLODEOH WR FRQVFLRXVQHVV DUH UHWULHYDEOH WR UHFDOO XQGHU FHUWDLQ FLUFXPVWDQFHV 6RPH LQYHVWLJDWRUV YLHZ K\SQRWLF VXJJHVWLRQ DQG DXWRPDWLF ZULWLQJ DV H[SHULHQFHV RI WKLV W\SH +LOJDUG .LKOVWURP f 2WKHUV KRZHYHU LQGLFDWH WKDW K\SQRVLV FDQ FRPPXQLFDWH GLUHFWO\ ZLWK WKH XQFRQVFLRXV (ULFNVRQ &KHUWRN 5RVVL 5RVVL t &KHHN &KHHN f +LOJDUG f VXJJHVWV WKDW FOHDU GLVWLQFWLRQ EHWZHHQ XQFRQVFLRXV DQG VXEFRQVFLRXV LV GLIILFXOW WR PDNH ZLWKRXW FRPPLWPHQW WR VRPH WKHRUHWLFDO SHUVSHFWLYH &RQFOXVLRQ $OWKRXJK WKH VLQJOH FRQVHQVXV DV ZH DSSURDFK WKH WXUQ RI WKH FHQWXU\ VHHPV WR EH WKDW VRPH XQFRQVFLRXV IDFHW RI WKH PLQG H[LVWV DQG RSHUDWHV ZKLOH ZH DUH LQ YLUWXDOO\ HYHU\ RWKHU VWDWH RI FRQVFLRXVQHVV IURP K\SHUDOHUW ZDNLQJ VWDWHV WR WKH GHHSHVW VWDJHV RI DQHVWKHVLDf XQFRQVFLRXV SURFHVVHV KDYH JDLQHG D SRVLWLRQ RI UHFRJQL]HG LPSRUWDQFH LQ SV\FKRORJLFDO UHVHDUFK DQG WKHRU\ $UHDV RI DJUHHPHQW RU WUXH VFLHQWLILF GHILQLWLRQ ZKLOH VPDOO DUH LQGHHG JURZLQJ 8QFRQVFLRXV SURFHVVHV DUH EHLQJ LQYHVWLJDWHG IURP WKH SHUVSHFWLYHV RI SV\FKRQHXURORJ\ SHUFHSWLRQ VOHHS UHVHDUFK SV\FKRG\QDPLF

PAGE 53

WKHRU\ FRJQLWLYH LQIRUPDWLRQ SURFHVVLQJ WKHRU\ K\SQRVLV DQG PHPRU\ UHVHDUFK 3URJUHVV WRZDUG FOLQLFDOO\ UHOHYDQW LVVXHV VXFK DV WKH QDWXUH RI SV\FKRORJLFDO GHIHQVH PHFKDQLVPV HJ UHSUHVVLRQ DQG GLVVRFLDWLRQf GUHDPV XQFRQVFLRXVO\ PRWLYDWHG EHKDYLRU DQG PHPRU\ KDV EHHQ WHPSRUDULO\ VORZHG E\ VFLHQWLILF GHEDWH RYHU IXQGDPHQWDOV OLNH PHDVXUHPHQW WHUPLQRORJ\ DQG GHILQLWLRQV %RUQVWHLQ E 0HULNOH t 5HLQJROG f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nV SULYDWH PHPRULHV HPRWLRQDO

PAGE 54

H[SHULHQFHV DQG SHUVRQDOLW\ +HQWVFKHO 6PLWK t 'UDJXQV 3ULQ] f 7KLV EURDGHQHG YLHZ RI SHUFHSWLRQ KDV UHYLVHG LGHDV DERXW WKH DSSURSULDWH WLPH DQG PHWKRGV IRU PHDVXULQJ SHUFHSWLRQ +HQWVFKHO 6PLWK t 'UDJXQV (UGHO\L )LVKHU f 7KH UHDOLW\ RI VXEOLPLQDO SHUFHSWLRQ FRQWLQXHV WR EH D PDWWHU RI GLVSXWH GHVSLWH GHFDGHV RI UHVHDUFK 0RGHUQ VWXG\ RI VXEOLPLQDO SHUFHSWLRQ LV RIWHQ WUDFHG WR 3LHUFH DQG -DVWURZnV GLVFRYHU\ WKDW VXEMHFWV FRXOG JXHVV ZKLFK RI WZR ZHLJKWV ZDV KHDYLHU DW UDWHV VLJQLILFDQWO\ DERYH FKDQFH HYHQ WKRXJK WKH\ UHSRUWHG IHHOLQJ QR GLVFHUQLEOH GLIIHUHQFH .LKOVWURP %UDQKDUGW t 7DWDU\Q f $QRWKHU SLRQHHU VWXG\ E\ 6LGLV LQ VKRZHG WKDW VXEMHFWV FRXOG UHDG OHWWHUV SULQWHG RQ D FDUG VKRZQ WR WKHP IDU EH\RQG WKHLU UDQJH RI GLVWDQW YLVLRQ ZLWK DFFXUDF\ VLJQLILFDQWO\ EH\RQG FKDQFH GHVSLWH WKHLU EHOLHI WKDW WKH\ VDZ QRWKLQJ SULQWHG 0HULNOH t 5HLQJROG f 6LQFH WKHQ WKHUH KDYH EHHQ SHUVXDVLYH DUJXPHQWV IRU 'L[RQ %RUQVWHLQ :HLQEHUJHU f DQG DJDLQVW +ROHQGHU f +RZHYHU FRQWLQXHG H[SHULPHQWDWLRQ KDV OHG WR D JURZLQJ FRQVHQVXV WKDW VXEOLPLQDO SHUFHSWLRQ LV D JHQXLQH SKHQRPHQRQ GHPRQVWUDEOH XQGHU VSHFLILF GHOLPLWHG FRQGLWLRQV &KHHVPDQ t 0HULNOH )RZOHU +HQWVFKHO 6PLWK t 'UDJXQV :ROIRUG .LKOVWURP 0HULNOH %RUQVWHLQ *UHHQZDOG 6ZLQJOH 8UEDQ f

PAGE 55

6LQFH VXEOLPLQDO LQSXW LV RXWVLGH WKH DZDUHQHVV RI WKH UHFHLYHU DQG PD\ PDQLIHVW LWV IXOO LPSDFW RYHU WLPH DVVHVVLQJ WKH HIIHFWV RI WKLV W\SH RI LQWHUYHQWLRQ LV HYHQ PRUH GLIILFXOW WKDQ WKH UHFRJQL]HG GLOHPPDV DFFRPSDQ\LQJ VFLHQWLILF YDOLGDWLRQ RI FRQVFLRXV SV\FKRWKHUDSHXWLF LQWHUYHQWLRQV 8UEDQ f 7KH SDUDGR[ RI VFLHQWLILFDOO\ PHDVXULQJ WKH GHJUHH RI D VXEMHFWnV DZDUHQHVV RI D SKHQRPHQRQ ZKLFK LV VXSSRVHG WR EH RXWVLGH DZDUHQHVV KDV EHHQ WKH SULPDU\ EDVLV IRU WKH FRQWURYHUV\ 6KHYULQ t 'LFNPDQ 'L[RQ f 7KH SUHVHQW VWXG\ E\SDVVHV WKH LVVXH RI WKH DXWKHQWLFLW\ RI VXEOLPLQDO SHUFHSWLRQ ZKLFK WKH LQYHVWLJDWRU YLHZV DV DQ DGHTXDWHO\ HVWDEOLVKHG IDFWf DQG H[SORUHV LVVXHV RI WKH DSSOLFDELOLW\ RI VXEOLPLQDO WHFKQRORJ\ LQ WKH SDUDGLJP RI PLQG?ERG\ KHDOLQJ 6XEOLPLQDOLW\ 7KH FRQFHSW RI VXEOLPLQDOLW\ KLQJHV RQ WKH YHULW\ WKDW WKH SHUFHLYHU LV XQDZDUH RI WKH VWLPXOXV WKH UHVSRQVH RU WKH FRQQHFWLRQ EHWZHHQ WKH WZR ,W PD\ EH GHILQHG ZLWK UHVSHFW WR DZDUHQHVV RI WKH SUHVHQFH RU WKH FRQWHQW RI D VWLPXOXV 6RPH UHVHDUFKHUV XVH WKH WHUP SUHFRQVFLRXV UDWKHU WKDQ VXEOLPLQDO WR GLVWLQJXLVK DQ\ VWLPXOXV RI ZKLFK WKH VXEMHFW FDQ EH PDGH DZDUH 'L[RQ 6ZLQJOH f ,Q HDUO\ UHVHDUFK VXEOLPLQDO ZDV GHILQHG DV EHORZ WKH OLPHQ WKH SRLQW DW ZKLFK WKH LQGLYLGXDO FRXOG GHWHUPLQH WKH SUHVHQFH RI D VLJQDO ZLWK b DFFXUDF\ &KHHVPDQ t 0HULNOH f 7KH

PAGE 56

LVVXH RI VXEOLPLQDOLW\ KDV EHFRPH LQFUHDVLQJO\ FRPSOH[ KRZHYHU DV RWKHU WKUHVKROGV KDYH EHHQ GHILQHG DQG QHZ PHWKRGV RI VLJQDO GHOLYHU\ HYROYHG 5HFHQW VWXGLHV JHQHUDOO\ XVH DXGLEOH VWLPXOL PDVNHG LQ PXVLF RU QRLVH 7KH WKUHVKROG FRQFHSW WKHUHIRUH PD\ UHIHU WR LGHQWLILFDWLRQ RI WKH FRQWHQW RI WKH VWLPXOXV GLVFULPLQDWLRQ EHWZHHQ VWLPXOL H[WULFDWLRQ RI VLJQDO IURP PDVN RU EHKDYLRUDO UHVSRQVH %RWK VXEMHFWLYH DQG REMHFWLYH WKUHVKROGV FDQ EH GHWHUPLQHG IRU HDFK FULWHULRQ $ VXEMHFWLYH WKUHVKROG GHQRWHV WKH SRLQW DW ZKLFK WKH VXEMHFW IUHHO\ LQGLFDWHV ZLWK b DFFXUDF\ WKDW KH RU VKH GHWHFWV RU GLIIHUHQWLDWHVf WKH VLJQDO DQ REMHFWLYH WKUHVKROG LV WKH SRLQW DW ZKLFK WKH VXEMHFW UHVSRQGV ZLWK b DFFXUDF\ WR IRUFHGFKRLFH TXHVWLRQV DERXW WKH VLJQDO &KHHVPDQ t 0HULNOH 0HULNOH t 5HLQJROG f 6XEMHFWV PD\ DOVR EH XQDZDUH RI RU XQDEOH WR LGHQWLI\ WKHLU UHVSRQVH WR VXEOLPLQDO VWLPXOL DQ LVVXH UHOHYDQW WR UHVHDUFK PRUH WKDQ WR FOLQLFDO ZRUN 6ZLQJOH f 6XEOLPLQDO YHUVXV VXSUDOLPLQDO HIIHFWV 7KH HIIHFW RI D VWLPXOXV FDQ YDU\ TXDOLWDWLYHO\ DQG TXDQWLWDWLYHO\ ZKHQ SUHVHQWHG DW GLIIHUHQW HQHUJ\ OHYHOV UHODWLYH WR WKH SHUFHLYHUnV SK\VLRORJLFDO UHFHSWLYLW\ 7KHRUHWLFDOO\ VXEOLPLQDO VWLPXOL FRXOG SURGXFH HIIHFWV ZKLFK DUH ZHDNHU VLPLODU WR RU VWURQJHU WKDQ VWLPXOL WKDW DUH FRQVFLRXVO\ SHUFHLYHG %RUQVWHLQ D Ef 0RVW LQYHVWLJDWRUV KDYH IRXQG WKDW VWLPXOL GHOLYHUHG VXEOLPLQDOO\ KDYH VLJQLILFDQWO\ JUHDWHU LPSDFW WKDQ ZKHQ GHOLYHUHG

PAGE 57

VXSUDOLPLQDOO\ *URHJHU 6LOYHUPDQ +DUGDZD\ %RUQVWHLQ Df 7KLV LV SDUWLFXODUO\ WUXH LQ WKH DUHDV RI VXEOLPLQDO PHUH H[SRVXUH DQG SV\FKRG\QDPLF UHVHDUFK 0DVOLQJ f ,Q RWKHU VWXGLHV VXEOLPLQDO DQG VXSUDOLPLQDO HIIHFWV KDYH EHHQ IRXQG WR EH TXDOLWDWLYHO\ GLIIHUHQW 6SHQFH .OHLQ t )HUQDQGH] -DFRE\ /LQGVD\ t 7RWK 6KHYULQ f 3V\FKRDQDO\WLF WKHRULVWV DWWULEXWH GLIIHUHQFHV WR WKH GLIIHUHQWLDO DFWLRQ RI WKH HJRnV GHIHQVH V\VWHP ZLWK FRQVFLRXV DQG XQFRQVFLRXV SURFHVVLQJ 'L[RQ t +HQOH\ f +RZHYHU LQ VRPH DUHDV VXFK DV VRFLDO SHUFHSWLRQ DQG MXGJHPHQW VWXGLHV PDLQWDLQ WKDW WKH LQIOXHQFHV RI VXEOLPLQDO DQG VXSUDOLPLQDO VWLPXOL DUH HVVHQWLDOO\ SDUDOOHO 'L[RQ 0DUFHO E (LFK %DUJK f 6XEOLPLQDO VWXGLHV LQ OH[LFDO SULPLQJ JHQHUDOO\ GR QRW GHPRQVWUDWH HIIHFWV VXSHULRU WR VXSUDOLPLQDO SUHVHQWDWLRQ 0DVOLQJ f 6XEOLPLQDOLW\ DQG XQFRQVFLRXV SHUFHSWLRQ $Q LPSRUWDQW WKHRUHWLFDO UDWLRQDOH IRU WKH XVH RI VXEOLPLQDO PHVVDJHV LQ WKH FOLQLFDO FRQWH[W LV WKDW WKH WHFKQRORJ\ SHUPLWV GLUHFW DFFHVV WR WKH XQFRQVFLRXV +RZ DQG WR ZKDW GHJUHH WKLV RFFXUV LV DQ LVVXH RI FRQVLGHUDEOH FUHDWLYH FRQWURYHUV\ 'L[RQ t +HQOH\ 6SHQFH .OHLQ t )HUQDQGH] .LKOVWURP %DUQKDUGW t 7DWDU\Q D E 6KHYULQ -DFRE\ HW DO f 2QH WKHRU\ LV WKDW PDWHULDO SUHVHQWHG DW OHYHOV WKDW HVFDSH FRQVFLRXV SURFHVVLQJ DVVRFLDWHV ZLWK XQFRQVFLRXV PDWHULDO RI FRPSDUDEOH HPRWLRQDO WRQH RU FRJQLWLYH RU DIIHFWLYH PHDQLQJ 6ZLQJOH f

PAGE 58

6KHYULQ f K\SRWKHVL]HV WKDW FRQVFLRXVQHVV LGHQWLILHV WKH VRXUFH FDWHJRU\ IRU D VWLPXOXV ZKLFK FRQWULEXWHV WR VHOHFWLRQ RI D FRQVFLRXV UHVSRQVH EXW EHFDXVH XQFRQVFLRXV SURFHVVHV ODFN WKLV FDWHJRULFDO GHILQLWLRQ WKH\ DFWLYDWH D QHWZRUN UHVXOWLQJ LQ ZLGHVSUHDG DVVRFLDWLRQ ZLWK PDQ\ GLIIHUHQW UHVSRQVH SURFHVVHV -DFRE\ HW DO f WKHRUL]H WKDW WKH VWLPXOXV DFWV DV D FRPSOH[ UHWULHYDO FXH IRU WKH PHPRU\ RI PXOWLSOH SULRU HYHQWV KROGLQJ VRPH VLPLODULW\ WR WKH SUHVHQW RQH ZKLFK FRQVFLRXVO\ RU XQFRQVFLRXVO\ LQIOXHQFH WKH LQWHUSUHWDWLRQ RI WKH FXUUHQW VLWXDWLRQ E\ SODFLQJ LW LQ D FRQWH[W :HLQEHUJHU f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t )HUQDQGH] f 6KHYULQ f FRQFOXGHV WKDW FRJQLWLYH DQG G\QDPLF XQFRQVFLRXV SURFHVVHV FDQQRW EH QHDWO\ VHSDUDWHG EXW LQWHUDFW FRQVWDQWO\ ZLWK HDFK RWKHU LQ YDU\LQJ FRPELQDWLRQV

PAGE 59

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t 6PRXVH 9RNH\ t 5HDG f ,Q JHQHUDO H[SHUWV LQ WKH ILHOG KDYH PHW WKLV PDUNHWLQJ HIIRUW ZLWK FRQFHUQ DQG VNHSWLFLVP 0HULNOH *UHHQZDOG HW DO 5XVVHOO 5RZH t 6PRXVH 0HULNOH t 6NDQHV f 0HULNOH f SHUIRUPHG D VSHFWURJUDSKLF DQDO\VLV RQ VHJPHQWV RI FRPPHUFLDO WDSHV IRU HYLGHQFH RI HPEHGGHG PHVVDJHV DQG IRXQG QR LQGLFDWLRQ RI HQHUJ\ SDWWHUQV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK VSHHFK +RZHYHU 8UEDQ f PDLQWDLQV WKDW VRQRJUDPV GR QRW QHFHVVDULO\ KDYH WKH FDSDFLW\ WR H[WUDFW LQIRUPDWLRQ IURP PDVNLQJ ZLWKRXW D VSHHFK WHPSODWH IRU FRPSDULVRQ *UHHQZDOG HW DO f FRQGXFWHG D EOLQG FRPSDULVRQ RI FRPPHUFLDOO\ SUHSDUHG PHPRU\ DQG VHOIHVWHHP EXLOGLQJ WDSHV DQG UHSRUWHG LQGLVFULPLQDWH LPSURYHPHQW LQ PHPRU\ DQG VHOI HVWHHP LUUHVSHFWLYH RI WKH WDSH 7KLV ILQGLQJ ZDV DWWULEXWHG WR D SODFHER RU H[SHFWDQF\ HIIHFW 8UEDQ f

PAGE 60

DVVHUWV WKDW VLQFH SODFHER HIIHFWV DUH W\SLFDOO\ IDU IURP XQLYHUVDO JHQHUDOL]HG LPSURYHPHQW LV PRUH OLNHO\ WR VXJJHVW HLWKHU DQ DURXVDO SKHQRPHQRQ FRPPRQO\ DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK VXEOLPLQDO VWLPXODWLRQ RU FRQWHQWVSHFLILF HIIHFWV RI WKH WDSHV QRW DGHTXDWHO\ DVVHVVHG E\ WKH VWXG\ 5XVVHOO 5RZH t 6PRXVH f IRXQG QR LPSDFW RQ VFKRRO JUDGHV RI KRXUV OLVWHQLQJ WR WDSHV DERXW VWXG\ KDELWV DQG SDVVLQJ H[DPV FRPSDUHG ZLWK SODFHER WDSHV DQG ZDLWOLVW FRQWURO $OWKRXJK QR REMHFWLYH VWXG\ KDV \HW GRFXPHQWHG WKHUDSHXWLF HIIHFWV IURP FRPPHUFLDOO\SUHSDUHG WDSHV RWKHU VHOIKHOS PHGLD HJ ERRNV YLGHRWDSHV DQG OHFWXUHVf DUH QRW KHOG WR WKHVH HYDOXDWLYH VWDQGDUGV 8UEDQ f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

PAGE 61

DOWKRXJK VXEOLPLQDO LQSXW IURP DOO WKH VHQVHV KDV EHHQ GRFXPHQWHG 'L[RQ %RUQVWHLQ E 0DVOLQJ f /LWHUDWXUH LQ FURVVPRGDO VXEOLPLQDO SURFHVVLQJ VXJJHVWV WKDW DXGLWRU\ DQG YLVXDO VHQVRU\ PRGDOLWLHV LQWHUDFW DQG VKDUH HTXLYDOHQW FDSDFLWLHV ZLWK UHVSHFW WR VXEOLPLQDO SURFHVVLQJ +HQOH\ f 6HQVLWLYLW\ RU UHFHSWLYLW\ 7KH ERUGHU EHWZHHQ FRQVFLRXV DQG VXEOLPLQDO SHUFHSWLRQ RI D VLJQDO KDV EHHQ VKRZQ WR GLIIHU IURP RQH LQGLYLGXDO WR DQRWKHU DQG DOVR WR YDU\ ZLWKLQ D VLQJOH LQGLYLGXDO RYHU WLPH DQG XQGHU GLIIHUHQW FRQGLWLRQV 6ZLQJOH f 7KUHVKROGV IRU KHDULQJ RU YLVLRQ PD\ DOVR GLIIHU IURP WKH OHIW WR WKH ULJKW VLGH RI WKH ERG\ 2QO\ D OLWWOH LV NQRZQ DW SUHVHQW DERXW WKH IDFWRUV ZKLFK SUHGLFW VHQVLWLYLW\ WR VXEOLPLQDO VWLPXOL 6LJQDO GHWHFWLRQ WKHRU\ $WNLQVRQ f GHVFULEHV WKH UHFHSWLRQ RI VHQVRU\ VWLPXOL DV D G\QDPLF WZRVWHS SURFHVV )LUVW WKH UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ H[WHUQDO VWLPXOXV HYHQWV DQG WKH LQWHUQDO VHQVRU\ VWDWH RI WKH VXEMHFW GHWHUPLQHV WKH VXEMHFWnV VHQVLWLYLW\ WR VWLPXOL 7KLV PD\ IOXFWXDWH IUHTXHQWO\ HYHQ IURP WULDO WR WULDO 7KHQ DQ LQWHUQDO GHFLVLRQ SURFHVV VSHFLILHV WKH VXEMHFWnV REVHUYDEOH UHVSRQVH LQ WHUPV RI VHQVRU\ VWDWH DQG SK\VLRORJLFDO YHUEDO RU EHKDYLRUDO LQIRUPDWLRQ JDWKHUHG GXULQJ WKH FRXUVH RI DQ H[SHULPHQW 7KH SURFHVV RI GHWHFWLRQ PD\ RFFXU FRPSOHWHO\ VHSDUDWHO\ IURP WKH VXEMHFWLYH H[SHULHQFH RI WKH VWLPXOXV DQG

PAGE 62

UHSRUWLQJ RI WKH H[SHULHQFH LPSOLHV WKDW IXUWKHU FULWHULD DUH PHW )RZOHU /LEHW HW DO f :DWVRQ DQG .ORSWRQ f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f (DJOH f XVLQJ D 4VRUW WR H[DPLQH SHUVRQDOLW\ FRUUHODWHV RI VXEOLPLQDO VHQVLWLYLW\ IRXQG FRUUHODWLRQV ZLWK WKH IROORZLQJ FKDUDFWHULVWLFV HPSDWKLF SV\FKRORJLFPLQGHG LQWHUSHUVRQDO RULHQWDWLRQ VRFLDO

PAGE 63

SHUFHSWLYHQHVV IOH[LEOH FRRSHUDWLYH FRJQLWLYH DQG DIIHFWLYH RSHQQHVV FRQILGHQW XVH RI QRQFRJQLWLYH GHIHQVHV WROHUDQFH RI XQVWUXFWXUHG VLWXDWLRQV DQG DFFHSWDQFH RI SDVVLYLW\ +H DOVR LGHQWLILHG IRXU VLWXDWLRQDO IDFWRUV ZKLFK DIIHFWHG VHQVLWLYLW\ E\ HQFRXUDJLQJ DZDUHQHVV RI XQFRQVFLRXV LQIRUPDWLRQ D UHOD[HG VWDWH D VWDWH LQ ZKLFK UHDOLW\ WHVWLQJ VXVSHQGHG UHVSRQVH WDVNV ZKLFK HQFRXUDJH UHVSRQVHV RQ WKH EDVLV RI JXHVVHV DQG LQWXLWLRQV DQG YDJXH RU OHVV FOHDU VWLPXOL )OHPLQJHU f DOVR VXJJHVWV WKDW H[SHFWDQFLHV SUHMXGLFH RXU SHUFHSWLRQV WHQGLQJ WR IRVWHU SHUFHSWLRQV ZLWK ZKLFK WKH\ DUH FRQVRQDQW DQG KHQFH FUHDWLQJ ELDV )DOVH H[SHFWDWLRQV OHG E\ IDOVH EHOLHIV PD\ UHVXOW LQ PLVSHUFHSWLRQV ZKLFK UHLQIRUFH WKRVH IDOVH EHOLHIV $ VHULHV RI SHUFHSWXDO GHIHQVH DQG VHQVLWL]DWLRQ VWXGLHV 'L[RQ t /HDU 'L[RQ f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

PAGE 64

DIIHFW ORZHUV WKH WKUHVKROG 1LHGHQWKDO f 'L[RQ f DOVR UHSRUWV WKDW VXEOLPLQDO HIIHFWV FDQ EH DQWDJRQL]HG E\ PHQWDO VHWV RSSRVHG WR WKHLU HIIHFWV 3ULQ] f LQGLFDWHV WKDW VHOHFWLYLW\ EDVHG RQ WKH LQIRUPDWLRQ FRQWDLQHG LQ PHPRU\ LV D FHQWUDO GHILQLQJ IHDWXUH RI DOO NLQGV RI SHUFHSWXDO DFWLYLW\ $ UDQJH RI SV\FKRG\QDPLFDOO\ RULHQWHG H[SHULPHQWV KDYH DSSOLHG VXEOLPLQDO WHFKQRORJ\ WR WKH DVVHVVPHQW RI SHUVRQDOLW\ DQG LQGLYLGXDO GLIIHUHQFHV ,QWHUQDO FRQIOLFWV DQG GHIHQVH PHFKDQLVPV KDYH EHHQ VKRZQ WR DIIHFW WKH SURFHVVLQJ RI VXEOLPLQDO VWLPXOL XQGHUO\LQJ WKH REVHUYHG YDULDWLRQV LQ UHVSRQVH WR HPRWLRQDOO\ FKDUJHG VWLPXOL 'L[RQ t +HQOH\ 'UDJXQV +HQOH\ +HQWVFKHO t 6FKHQLGHU 6LOYHUPDQ t *HLVOHU :HVWHUOXQGK t 6MREDFN 0DVOLQJ f 7KH 'HIHQVH 0HFKDQLVP 7HVW '07f .UDJK f XVHV YLVXDO VXEOLPLQDO LPDJHV RI D WKUHDWHQLQJ ILJXUH WR DVVHVV GHIHQVH PHFKDQLVPV $QGHUVRQ t %HQJWVVRQ f 5HVHDUFK KDV EHJXQ RQ WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI VWDQGDUGL]HG SUHVHQWDWLRQV RI FRPSOH[UHODWHG DQG QHXWUDO VXEOLPLQDO VWLPXOL DV D SRWHQWLDO WRRO IRU E\SDVVLQJ GHIHQVH PHFKDQLVPV WR GLDJQRVH FRQFHDOHG SV\FKRSDWKRORJ\ LQ D SURFHVV VLPLODU WR SURMHFWLYH WHVWV $QGHUVVRQ t %HQJWVVRQ 'L[RQ t +HQOH\ .UDJK f

PAGE 65

6WLPXOL 6LQJOH ZRUGV RU VRXQGV DQG VLPSOH JHRPHWULF GHVLJQV RU SLFWXUHV DUH WKH W\SH RI VWLPXOL ZKLFK KDYH EHHQ PRVW WKRURXJKO\ LQYHVWLJDWHG DQG IRXQG HIIHFWLYH %RUJHDW HW DO %RUQVWHLQ 'L[RQ -DPHVRQ HW DO 0DUFHO f 6XFFHVVIXO VXEOLPLQDO SV\FKRG\QDPLF DFWLYDWLRQ 63$f H[SHULPHQWV LQYROYH WKH YLVXDO RU DXGLWRU\ SUHVHQWDWLRQ RI D VHQWHQFH ZLWK V\PELRWLF PHDQLQJ VXFK DV 0RPP\ DQG DUH RQH FRPSDUHG ZLWK QHXWUDO VHQWHQFHV VXFK DV 3HRSOH DUH ZDONLQJ 6LOYHUPDQ )XGLQ t %HQMDPLQ f +RZHYHU %DOD\ t 6KHYULQ f SRLQWHG RXW WKDW LW LV XQFHUWDLQ ZKHWKHU WKH SKUDVH LV SURFHVVHG DV D FRQFHSWXDO XQLW RU ZKHWKHU RQO\ FHUWDLQ ZRUGV VXFK DV 0RPP\ DQG DUH UHVSRQVLEOH IRU WKH HIIHFWV *UHHQZDOG f DUJXHV WKDW WKHUH KDV EHHQ QR FRQYLQFLQJ SURRI WKDW PRUH WKDQ RQH ZRUG LV SURFHVVHG DW D WLPH 6ZLQJOH f 8UEDQ f DQG RWKHUV DIILUP WKDW VXEMHFWV FDQ SURFHVV DQG UHVSRQG WR FRPSOHWH VHQWHQFHV DQG D UDQJH RI UHODWHG FRQWHQW SUHVHQWHG DXGLWRULDOO\ )XGLQ t %HQMDPLQ f 6ZLQJOH DVVHUWV WKDW PXOWLSOH UHODWHG ZRUGV RU SKUDVHV DUH VXSHULRU WR VLQJOH ZRUG SUHVHQWDWLRQV 8UEDQ f GHVFULEHV JRRG VFULSWLQJ DV LQFOXGLQJ VKRUW SKUDVHV RU ZRUGV RI HPRWLRQDOO\ UHOHYDQW PDWHULDO DOWKRXJK KH DGPLWV WKDW WKHUH LV QR DEVROXWH FULWHULRQ IRU ZKDW D UHOLDEOH VWLPXOXV ZRXOG EH 9HU\ UHFHQWO\ KLJK IUHTXHQF\ N+]f DQG

PAGE 66

XOWUDVRQLF N+]f VWLPXOL DUH EHLQJ WHVWHG LQ D IHZ VWXGLHV /HQKDUGW HW DO 8UEDQ f 0DVNLQJ IDFWRUV 0XVLF LV LWVHOI D UHFRJQL]HG PRGLILHU RI DIIHFW %HQHV *XWNLQ t 'HFNHU f KDYH VKRZQ WKDW UHVSRQVHV WR VXEOLPLQDO DXGLWRU\ FXHV PDVNHG LQ PHOORZ PXVLF DUH JUHDWHU WKDQ UHVSRQVHV WR WKH VDPH FXHV PDVNHG LQ IUHQHWLF PXVLF 3LJQDWLHOOR &DPS t 5DVDU f VKRZHG PXVLF WR EH HIIHFWLYH LQ WKH LQGXFWLRQ RI WKH PRRGV RI HODWLRQ DQG GHSUHVVLRQ 7HPSR ORXGQHVV DQG WKH VWUXFWXUDO FKDUDFWHULVWLFV RI PXVLF KDYH DOVR EHHQ IRXQG WR KDYH DQ HIIHFW RQ DURXVDO VXEMHFWLYH PRRG DQG SK\VLRORJLFDO IDFWRUV 7KXV PXVLF FDQ EH FRQVLGHUHG DQ LGHDO HPEHGGLQJ PHGLXP IRU PRRG PRGLILFDWLRQ DQG UHOD[DWLRQ LQGXFWLRQ WUHDWPHQWV 0F)DUODQG 6ZLQJOH f =HQKDXVHUQ t +DQVHQ f UHSRUWHG DFWLYDWLQJ HIIHFWV RI ZKLWH QRLVH DW ERWK VXEOLPLQDO DQG VXSUDOLPLQDO OHYHOV 6ZLQJOH f LQGLFDWHV WKDW VXEOLPLQDOO\ SUHVHQWHG ZKLWH QRLVH KDV WKH HIIHFW RI HQKDQFLQJ SHUIRUPDQFH LQ DQ\ VLWXDWLRQ IRU ZKLFK UHOD[DWLRQ LV QRW UHTXLUHG 8UEDQ f FDXWLRQV WKDW EURDGEDQG PDVNLQJ XVLQJ ZKLWH QRLVH SLQN QRLVH RU RFHDQ VXUI FDQ UHVXOW LQ VXFK D SRRU VLJQDOWRQRLVH 61f UDWLR DW WLPHV WR G%f WKDW WKH PHVVDJH EHFRPHV XQUHWULHYDEOH SUHVHQW HYLGHQFH VXJJHVWV PDUNHGO\ GHFUHDVHG HIIHFWLYHQHVV EH\RQG 61 UDWLRV RI G% 7KHVH ILQGLQJV VXJJHVW D QHHG WR FRQWURO IRU WKH HIIHFWV RI WKH PDVNLQJ

PAGE 67

VWLPXOXV RQ UHSRUWHG VXEOLPLQDO HIIHFWV &OLQLFDOO\ XVLQJ ZKLWH QRLVH RU PXVLF RI WKH VXEMHFWnV FKRLFH IRU PDVNLQJ KDV EHHQ IRXQG HIIHFWLYH 6ZLQJOH f %DFNPDVNLQT 6SXUUHG E\ SRSXODU LQWHUHVW LQ OLWLJDWLRQ DJDLQVW WKH DOOHJHG VXEOLPLQDO HIIHFWV RI EDFNPDVNLQJ 6DWDQLF PHVVDJHV LQ URFN PXVLF 9RNH\ t 5HDG f VWXGLHG WKH HIIHFWV RI UHFRUGLQJ PHVVDJHV EDFNZDUGV LQWR PXVLF 6XEMHFWV GLIIHUHQWLDWHG PDOH IURP IHPDOH YRLFHV RQH PDOH YRLFH IURP DQRWKHU DQG WKH ODQJXDJH LQ ZKLFK WKH PHVVDJH ZDV UHFRUGHG 7KH\ FRXOG QRW GLVWLQJXLVK JXHVWLRQV IURP VWDWHPHQWV RU GLIIHUHQWLDWH EHWZHHQ W\SHV RI FRQWHQW 1HLWKHU ZHUH WKH\ LQIOXHQFHG WR VHOHFW D OHVV FRPPRQ VSHOOLQJ RI D KRPRSKRQH HJ SDLQ SDQHf E\ KHDULQJ D EDFNPDVNHG SULPH HJ ZLQGRZf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f LQ ELQRFXODU ULYDOU\ VLWXDWLRQV KDV DOVR EHHQ VKRZQ WR KDYH VXEOLPLQDO HIIHFWV 'L[RQ t +HQOH\ f

PAGE 68

6HPDQWLF SURFHVVLQJ 7KH GHJUHH WR ZKLFK YHUEDO VWLPXOL DUH SURFHVVHG RU DQDO\]HG VXEOLPLQDOO\ KDV EHHQ WKH VXEMHFW RI FRQVLGHUDEOH UHVHDUFK (YLGHQFH KDV EHHQ SUHVHQWHG IRU UHVSRQVH WR ERWK SK\VLFDO FKDUDFWHULVWLFV DQG FRQWHQW RU PHDQLQJ *URHJHU f VKRZHG WKDW ZLWK YLVXDO VWLPXOL VWUXFWXUDO DQDO\VLV RI ZRUGV SUHGRPLQDWHV EHORZ WKH UHFRJQLWLRQ WKUHVKROG ZKHQ VXEMHFWV FDQ GHWHFW EXW QRW UHFRJQL]H D VWLPXOXVf ZKHUHDV VHPDQWLF DQDO\VLV SUHGRPLQDWHV b EHORZ WKH DZDUHQHVV WKUHVKROG ZKHQ VXEMHFWV GR QRW FRQVFLRXVO\ GHWHFW DQ\ VWLPXOXVf ,Q WKH DXGLWRU\ PRGH KRPRSKRQHV WR ZKLFK VXEMHFWV ZHUH VXEOLPLQDOO\ H[SRVHG ZKLOH VKDGRZLQJ D PRQRORJXH SOD\HG WKURXJK VWHUHR KHDGSKRQHV ZHUH VKRZQ WR DIIHFW WKH UHFRJQLWLRQ DQG VSHOOLQJ RI ZRUGV LPPHGLDWHO\ WKHUHDIWHU LQGLFDWLQJ WKDW XQDWWHQGHG LQIRUPDWLRQ LV VXEMHFW WR VRPH GHJUHH RI GHHS VHPDQWLF DQDO\VLV +RZHYHU DWWHQGHG SUHVHQWDWLRQ RI WKH KRPRSKRQHV SURGXFHG PXFK PRUH FRPSOHWH VHPDQWLF DQDO\VLV (LFK f 0HPRU\ 6KRUWWHUP PHPRU\ PDWHULDO FDQ EH LQIOXHQFHG E\ VXEOLPLQDO SURFHGXUHV &KDNDOLV t /RZH f GHPRQVWUDWHG D PHPRU\HQKDQFLQJ HIIHFW RI D PLQXWH VXEOLPLQDO DXGLWRU\ SUHVHQWDWLRQ FRQWDLQLQJ SRVLWLYH DIILUPDWLRQV IRU LPSURYHG PHPRU\ (LFK f GHPRQVWUDWHG D GLVVRFLDWLRQ EHWZHHQ PHPRU\

PAGE 69

DQG DZDUHQHVV RI PHPRU\ IRU XQDWWHQGHG HYHQWV LQGLFDWLQJ WKDW PHPRU\ IRU SDVW HYHQWV FDQ LQIOXHQFH SUHVHQW DFWLRQV ZKHWKHU RU QRW ZH DUH DZDUH RI UHPHPEHULQJ RU RI SHUFHLYLQJ WKH SULRU H[SHULHQFHV (UGHO\L f SRLQWV RXW WKDW PHPRU\ IRU XQDWWHQGHG HYHQWV PD\ EH JUHDWHU RYHU WLPH ZLWK UHSHDWHG HIIRUWV DW UHFDOO +H DOVR VKRZV WKDW LQGLUHFW LQGLFDWRUV VXFK DV IUHH DVVRFLDWLRQV RU GUHDPV RIWHQ DFFHVV D IRUP RI PHPRU\ RI WKH VWLPXOXV ZKLFK LV XQDYDLODEOH WR GLUHFW FRQVFLRXV UHFDOO DQG WKDW PHPRU\ IRU D VWLPXOXV FRPPRQO\ PD\ EH DIIHFWHG E\ WKH FRQWH[W LQ ZKLFK LW LV SUHVHQWHG $IIHFW RU HQHUJ\ OHYHO %RUJHDW &KDERW t &KDORXOW f GHPRQVWUDWHG WKDW DFWLYDWLQJ DQG GHDFWLYDWLQJ VXEOLPLQDO DXGLWRU\ PHVVDJHV FDQ KDYH VLJQLILFDQW HIIHFWV RQ OHYHOV RI DFWLYDWLRQ RQ WKH 1RZOLV 0RRG $GMHFWLYH &KHFN /LVW (PRWLRQDO UHVSRQVHV WR VLPSOH FXHV KDYH DOVR EHHQ GHPRQVWUDWHG %RUQVWHLQ &RUWHHQ t 'XQQ f 6WXGLHV LQ WKH ILHOG RI VXEOLPLQDO PHUH H[SRVXUH LH ZKHUH WKH VXEMHFW LV PHUHO\ IODVKHG D VWLPXOXV EHORZ WKH UHFRJQLWLRQ WKUHVKROGf KDYH FRQVLVWHQWO\ GHPRQVWUDWHG WKDW LQGLUHFW DIIHFWEDVHG VWLPXOXV GLVFULPLQDWLRQ LV PRUH DFFXUDWH LQ GHWHFWLQJ VXEOLPLQDOO\ SUHVHQWHG PDWHULDO WKDQ GLUHFW UHFRJQLWLRQEDVHG GLVFULPLQDWLRQV VXEMHFWV SUHIHU VWLPXOL WR ZKLFK WKH\ KDYH EHHQ VXEOLPLQDOO\ H[SRVHG HYHQ WKRXJK WKH\ GR

PAGE 70

QRW UHFRJQL]H WKH VWLPXOL RQ D IRUFHGFKRLFH WHVW .XQVW :LOVRQ t =DMRQF %RUQVWHLQ f 6XEOLPLQDO SUHVHQWDWLRQV RI ZRUGV VXFK DV KDSS\ VDG SHDFHIXO DQG GLVWXUELQJ DQG RI SLFWXUHV ZLWK KDSS\ RU XQKDSS\ WKHPHV KDYH EHHQ VKRZQ WR DIIHFW HYDOXDWLYH GHFLVLRQV DERXW VXEVHTXHQW WDUJHW ZRUGV WKH HPRWLRQDO WRQH RI VWRULHV ZULWWHQ IROORZLQJ WKH H[SRVXUHV DQG LQWHUSUHWDWLRQV RI DPELJXRXV LQNEORWV DOWKRXJK VXEMHFWV GHQLHG GHWHFWLRQ RI WKH VWLPXOXV *UHHQZDOG .OLQJHU t /LX 6ZLQJOH f $WWLWXGHV RU FRJQLWLRQ &DWHJRULHV RI MXGJHPHQW SUREOHP VROYLQJ DQG WKRXJKW FRQFHSWV FDQ EH LQIOXHQFHG E\ DXGLWRU\ VWLPXOL WKDW VXEMHFWV FDQQRW GHWHFW 6ZLQJOH f 5HVHDUFK LQ VXEOLPLQDO PHUH H[SRVXUH KDV VKRZQ FRQFOXVLYHO\ WKDW VLPSOH XQUHLQIRUFHG H[SRVXUH WR D VXEOLPLQDO VWLPXOXV LV VXIILFLHQW WR HQKDQFH DWWLWXGH WRZDUG WKDW VWLPXOXV %RUQVWHLQ Ff %DUJK f FRQWHQGV WKDW VXEOLPLQDOLW\ GRHV QRW PDWWHU ZLWK UHVSHFW WR VWHUHRW\SLQJ DQG RWKHU DXWRPDWLF HYDOXDWLRQ HIIHFWV RI VRFLDO SHUFHSWLRQ VLQFH WKH VDPH LQIOXHQFHV RFFXU ZKHWKHU RU QRW WKH VXEMHFW LV DZDUH RI WKH VWLPXOXV %RUQVWHLQ /HRQH t *DOOH\ f GHPRQVWUDWHG WKDW DWWLWXGHV WRZDUG SLFWXUHV RI SHRSOH DQG WRZDUG WKH DFWXDO LQGLYLGXDOV HQFRXQWHUHG LQ WKH HQYLURQPHQW RI WKH H[SHULPHQW DUH HQKDQFHG ZLWK UHSHDWHG VXEOLPLQDO H[SRVXUHV WR SKRWRJUDSKV RI WKRVH LQGLYLGXDOV

PAGE 71

6XEOLPLQDO SV\FKRG\QDPLF DFWLYDWLRQ WUHDWPHQWV KDYH EHHQ VKRZQ UHSHDWHGO\ WR HQKDQFH OHDUQLQJ E\ DSSUR[LPDWHO\ b 3DUNHU +XGHVPDQ 3DJH t 5DXWLDLQHQ f 6OHHS DVVLVWHG VXEOLPLQDO OHDUQLQJ KDV DOVR EHHQ VKRZQ HIIHFWLYH LQ VSHFLILF FRQWH[WV $DURQV f 3V\FKRSKYVLRORDLFDO PHDVXUHV %RUJHDW DQG *RXOHW f VKRZHG WKDW XQFRQVFLRXVO\ SHUFHLYHG DFWLYDWLQJ DQG GHDFWLYDWLQJ VXJJHVWLRQV DIIHFWHG VXEMHFWVn KHDUW UDWH DQG VNLQ FRQGXFWDQFH OHYHO ZKHQ SUHVHQWHG ZLWK D EHQLJQ VWUHVV DOWKRXJK D ODWHU H[SHULPHQW E\ %RUJHDW HW DO f UHSOLFDWHG WKH HIIHFWV RQ KHDUW UDWH EXW QRW RQ VNLQ FRQGXFWDQFH %RUJHDW HW DO f DOVR UHSRUWHG WKDW VNLQ FRQGXFWDQFH KHDUW UDWH DQG IURQWDO (0* UHVSRQGHG LQ GLUHFW LQFUHPHQWDO IDVKLRQ WR PDVNHG VWLPXOL EHJLQQLQJ G% EHORZ WKH VXEMHFWnV DXGLWRU\ WKUHVKROG ZKHQ WKH VXEMHFW ZDV DFWLYHO\ DWWHQGLQJ 2QO\ VNLQ FRQGXFWDQFH OHYHO VKRZHG WKLV UHVSRQVH ZKHQ WKH VXEMHFW ZDV LQ D UHOD[HG SDVVLYH VWDWH +HQFH WKH W\SH RI SK\VLRORJLFDO UHVSRQVH VHHPV WR EH PHGLDWHG E\ WKH DWWHQWLRQDO VWDWH RI WKH VXEMHFW +HDUW UDWH DORQH ZDV IDVWHU ZLWK VH[XDOO\WRQHG HPRWLRQDO VWLPXOL WKDQ ZLWK QHXWUDO VWLPXOL %RUJHDW HW DO f UHSRUWHG D UHVSRQVH DNLQ WR SHUFHSWXDO GHIHQVH LQ SV\FKRSK\VLRORJLFDO YDULDEOHV SK\VLRORJLFDO UHVSRQVHV WR HPRWLRQDO ZRUGV ZHUH ZHDNHU WKDQ WR QHXWUDO ZRUGV ZKHQ VXEMHFWV OLVWHQHG SDVVLYHO\ .RW]H t 0ROOHU f DOVR GHPRQVWUDWHG LQIOXHQFH RI VXEOLPLQDO

PAGE 72

VWLPXOL RQ JDOYDQLF VNLQ UHVSRQVH (YHQW UHODWHG SRWHQWLDOV 1 3 1 DQG 3f DUH EHLQJ H[SORUHG DQG KDYH EHHQ IRXQG WR EH YDOLG LQGLFDWRUV RI UHFHSWLRQ RI VXEOLPLQDO YLVXDO VWLPXOL DQG WR GLIIHUHQWLDWH EHWZHHQ HPRWLRQDOO\WLQJHG DQG QHXWUDO VWLPXOL QRXQV DQG YHUEV DQG DQWRQ\PV DQG KRPRQ\PV 8UEDQ f $GGLWLRQDOO\ D FRQGLWLRQLQJ HIIHFW KDV EHHQ GHPRQVWUDWHG ZKHUHLQ D QHXWUDO VWLPXOXV SDLUHG ZLWK DQ HPRWLRQDO VWLPXOXV DFTXLUHV WKH VDPH 3 UHVSRQVH DV WKH HPRWLRQDO VWLPXOXV D UHVSRQVH ZKLFK UHVLVWV H[WLQFWLRQ .RVWDQGRY t $U]XPDQRY f (KOHUV DQG 0XQ] f VXJJHVW WKDW WKH 3 1 DQG 3 PD\ EH YDOLG XQFRQVFLRXV LQGLFDWRUV RI FRJQLWLYH FRQWURO %HKDYLRU DQG KDELWV 6XEOLPLQDO PHVVDJHV KDYH EHHQ VKRZQ WR KDYH D VKRUWWHUP LPSDFW RQ EHKDYLRU DQG ZLWK UHSHDWHG H[SRVXUH DV DQ DGMXQFW WR WKHUDS\ FDQ DVVLVW LQ UHVWUXFWXULQJ KDELWXDO EHKDYLRU \HDUV RI UHVHDUFK GHYRWHG WR WKH VXEOLPLQDO SV\FKRG\QDPLF DFWLYDWLRQ SDUDGLJP 6LOYHUPDQ :HLQEHUJHU f KDV VKRZQ WKDW YLVXDO V\PELRWLF PHVVDJHV SHUFHLYHG VXEOLPLQDOO\ FDQ HQKDQFH DGDSWLYH IXQFWLRQLQJ LQ D YDULHW\ RI SV\FKRSDWKRORJLFDO FRQGLWLRQV VXFK DV DQ[LHW\ VFKL]RSKUHQLD HDWLQJ GLVRUGHUV DOFRKRO DQG GUXJ XVH GHSUHVVLRQ DJJUHVVLYH EHKDYLRU DQG SKRELDV 6LOYHUPDQ *XVWDYVRQ t .DOOPHQ D 7DOERW t 'XEHUVWHLQ :HLQEHUJHU )XGLQ t %HQMDPLQ *UHHQEHUJ f +HDWHG

PAGE 73

FRQWURYHUV\ RYHU WKHVH VWXGLHV LQVSLUHG D PHWDDQDO\VLV +DUGDZD\ f ZKLFK DIILUPHG D PRGHUDWH DQG UHOLDEOH WUHDWPHQW HIIHFWWKDW JHQHUDOL]HV DFURVV ODERUDWRULHV DQG VXEMHFW SRSXODWLRQV S f 2WKHU PHVVDJHV VXFK DV :LQQLQJ 0RP LV 2. %HDWLQJ 'DG LV 2. 7KH 3URI DQG DUH RQH 7KH VQDNH DQG DUH RQH DQG 0\ ORYHU DQG DUH RQH KDYH DOVR EHHQ WHVWHG DQG IRXQG WR KDYH SRVLWLYH HIIHFWV RQ EHKDYLRU GHSUHVVLRQ DQG DQ[LHW\ DQG SKRELDV 6LOYHUPDQ )XGLQ t %HQMDPLQ 6ZLQJOH f 6ZLQJOH f UHSRUWV WKDW ZULWLQJ RXWSXW VSHHG RI OHYHU SXVKLQJ DQG LQWHUSHUVRQDO EHKDYLRU FDQ EH DOWHUHG E\ VXEOLPLQDO DXGLWRU\ VXJJHVWLRQV +XJKHV HW DO f LQ D ODUJH GRXEOHEOLQG UDQGRPL]HG WULDO VXFFHVVIXOO\ XVHG UHSHDWHG DXGLRWDSHG VXJJHVWLRQV XQGHU VXUJLFDO DQHVWKHVLD WR DLG SDWLHQWV LQ VPRNLQJ FHVVDWLRQ 'UHDPV DQG IUHH DVVRFLDWLRQV $ IDPRXV VWXG\ E\ 3RHW]O GHPRQVWUDWHG WKDW ZKLOH VXEMHFWV ZHUH XQDEOH WR UHSURGXFH LPPHGLDWHO\ D GUDZLQJ ZKLFK WKH\ KDG VHHQ IODVKHG WDFKLVWRVFRSLFDOO\ LQLWLDOO\ LQDFFHVVLEOH VWLPXOXV HOHPHQWV HPHUJHG LQ WKH FRQWHQW RI GUHDPV DOORZLQJ IDU EHWWHU UHSURGXFWLRQ RI WKH VWLPXOXV WKH IROORZLQJ GD\ ,RQHVFX t (UGHO\L f 7KLV ILQGLQJ KDV EHHQ UHSOLFDWHG DQG WKH LQFRUSRUDWLRQ RI YLVXDO DQG DXGLWRU\ VXEOLPLQDO FXHV LQWR GUHDPV DQG IUHH DVVRFLDWLRQV KDV DOVR EHHQ GHPRQVWUDWHG )LVKHU .DVHU 6KHYULQ f

PAGE 74

3ULPDU\ SURFHVV DVSHFWV RI WKH VWLPXOXV DQG VLJQLILFDQW GHWDLOV RI FRQWHQW ZKLFK ZHUH QRW FRQVFLRXVO\ UHSRUWHG DSSHDU WR EH UHFRYHUHG LQ GUHDP FRQWHQW RQ WKH QLJKWV VXEVHJXHQW WR VXEOLPLQDO SUHVHQWDWLRQV 'UHDP FRQWHQW FDQ DOVR EH LQIOXHQFHG E\ SUHVHQWLQJ DXGLWRU\ PHVVDJHV WR VXEMHFWV GXULQJ UDSLGH\H PRYHPHQW 5(0f SHULRGV RI VOHHS 'H .RQLQFN t .RXODFN f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n VHOIUHSRUW WKH YDOLGLW\ RI ZKLFK LV JXHVWLRQDEOH GXH WR WKH GLIILFXOW\ RI ZKDW FULWHULD VXEMHFWV XVH ZKHQ UHSRUWLQJ DQG WR WKH SRVVLELOLW\ RI ELDV 0HULNOH t 5HLQJROG f $ UHFHQW DOWHUQDWLYH PRGHO WKH GLUHFW YHUVXV LQGLUHFW SDUDGLJP 5HLQJROG t 0HULNOH f SRVLWV WKDW LI VXEMHFWV

PAGE 75

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t 'HEQHU f $ YHU\ UHFHQW PHWKRG LV WKH SURFHVV GLVVRFLDWLRQ SDUDGLJP -DFRE\ f ZKLFK LV GHVLJQHG WR GHOLEHUDWHO\ RSSRVH FRQVFLRXV DQG XQFRQVFLRXV SURFHVVHV WKURXJK H[SHULPHQWDO PDQLSXODWLRQ %RUQVWHLQ 0HULNOH t 5HLQJROG -DFRE\ 7RWK /LQGVD\ t 'HEQHU f 6XEMHFWV DUH VXSSOLHG ZLWK LQIRUPDWLRQ ZKLFK ZLOO ODWHU FRQVWLWXWH WKHLU FRQVFLRXV UHVSRQVH RWKHU UHVSRQVHV DUH DVVXPHG WR UHIOHFW WKH LQIOXHQFH RI VXEOLPLQDO VWLPXOL DQG XQFRQVFLRXV SURFHVVHV 7KH PRGHO LV VR IDU VRPHZKDW OLPLWHG LQ LWV DSSOLFDELOLW\ EXW LQJHQLRXVO\ FODULILHV WKH LVVXH RI XQFRQVFLRXV YHUVXV FRQVFLRXV SURFHVVHV ,QWHQVLW\ RI VWLPXOXV 'HWHUPLQLQJ D UDQJH RI LQWHQVLW\ DQG PHWKRG RI GHOLYHU\ WR DVVXUH WKDW VXEMHFWV UHFHLYH DXGLWRU\ FXHV ZLWKRXW

PAGE 76

FRQVFLRXV DZDUHQHVV RI WKHP KDV EHHQ D FRQWURYHUVLDO SUREOHP 0RVW UHFHQW UHVHDUFK WHQGV WR SUHVHQW VWLPXOL DW DQ LQWHQVLW\ ZKLFK ZRXOG EH DXGLEOH LQ D VLOHQW PHGLXP RU DW FORVH UDQJH EXW LV VXEOLPLQDO UHODWLYH WR WKH PDVNLQJ VRXQG RU DPELHQW HQYLURQPHQWDO QRLVH )XGLQ t %HQMDPLQ 6ZLQJOH 8UEDQ f 7KXV WKH DXGLWRU\ V\VWHP DQG WKH EUDLQ DUH SUHVHQWHG ZLWK D SUREOHP RI VLJQDO H[WUDFWLRQ IURP QRLVH UDWKHU WKDQ VLJQDO GHWHFWLRQ DV LQ WKH WKUHVKROG WHFKQLTXH 8UEDQ f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f XUJHV WKH DGRSWLRQ RI D VWDQGDUGL]HG GLJLWDO VLJQDO SURFHVVLQJ '63f WHFKQLTXH IRU SUHSDUDWLRQ RI DXGLRWDSHV IRU UHVHDUFK EXW WKH PHWKRG KH UHFRPPHQGV LQYROYHV KLJKWHFK SUHFLVLRQ PDFKLQHU\ DQG VSHFLDOL]HG VRIWZDUH GHYHORSHG IRU WKDW SXUSRVH ZKLFK JUHDWO\ OLPLWV LWV DSSOLFDELOLW\ IRU VPDOOHU UHVHDUFK HQGHDYRUV +H VWUHVVHV WKH QHHG IRU D FRQVLVWHQW UHSURGXFLEOH VRXQGWRQRLVH UDWLR

PAGE 77

EHWZHHQ WKH PDVNLQJ VRXQG DQG WKH VLJQDO ZKLFK FDQ RQO\ EH SURGXFHG E\ D VXEOLPLQDO PL[LQJ GHYLFH %HQHV *XWNLQ t 'HFNHU f HVWDEOLVKHG DQ LQGLYLGXDO VSHHFK WKUHVKROG IRU HDFK VXEMHFW WKURXJK PDVNLQJ PXVLF WKHQ GHOLYHUHG WKH VWLPXOXV ELQDXUDOO\ WKURXJK FLUFXPDXUDO HDUSKRQHV DW G% EHORZ WKDW VXEMHFWnV WKUHVKROG %RUJHDW HW DO f XVH G% VXEOLPLQDO VXJJHVWLRQV PDVNHG LQ G% RI ZKLWH QRLVH GHOLYHUHG ELQDXUDOO\ WKURXJK DQ DXGLRPHWHU ,Q WKHLU VWXG\ SXUH WRQH DXGLRJUDPV DW IUHTXHQFLHV IURP +] ZHUH XVHG WR GHWHUPLQH D WKUHVKROG UDQJH IURP G% WR G% DW +] D IUHTXHQF\ LGHQWLILHG DV QHDUHVW WKDW RI WKH DYHUDJH KXPDQ YRLFHf 7KHQ WKH\ SUHVHQWHG ZRUG VWLPXOL PDVNHG LQ G% ZKLWH QRLVH DW JUDGXDOO\ LQFUHDVLQJ LQWHQVLWLHV IURP G% WR GHWHUPLQH ZKHQ VXEMHFWV FRXOG GHWHFW D VRXQG VSHHFK GHWHFWLRQ WKUHVKROGf DQG ZKHQ WKH\ FRXOG UHFRJQL]H WKH ZRUG VSHHFK LGHQWLILFDWLRQ WKUHVKROGf 0HDQ VSHHFK LGHQWLILFDWLRQ WKUHVKROG UHSRUWHG ZDV G% PHDQ VSHHFK GHWHFWLRQ WKUHVKROG ZDV G% IRU HPRWLRQDO VWLPXOL DQG G% IRU QHXWUDO VWLPXOL FRQVLVWHQW ZLWK SHUFHSWXDO GHIHQVH WKHRU\f 6ZLQJOH f SUHVHQWV UHVHDUFK VXSSRUWLQJ WKH DGPLQLVWUDWLRQ RI DXGLWRU\ VXEOLPLQDO WUHDWPHQWV WR JURXSV RU LQGLYLGXDOV VHDWHG EHWZHHQ WZR VHWV RI WKUHH ORXGVSHDNHUV 7KH VSHDNHUV DUH ORFDWHG DW OHDVW PHWHU IURP WKH VXEMHFWnV HDU LQ D ELODWHUDOO\ V\PPHWULFDO FRQILJXUDWLRQ 7KH HIIHFWLYH VWLPXOXV GHOLYHU\ UDQJH LV UHSRUWHG IURP WR G% ZLWK

PAGE 78

WKH URRVW HIIHFWLYH UDQJH EHLQJ IURP WR G% UHODWLYH WR DPELHQW RU HPEHGGLQJ VRXQG PHGLXP 6ZLQJOH UHSRUWV HYLGHQFH RI D SHUFHSWXDO GHDG ]RQH LQ WKH UHJLRQ MXVW EHORZ WKH FRQWHQW GLVFULPLQDWLRQ WKUHVKROG DURXQG G% +H DOVR LGHQWLILHV D SK\VLRORJLFDO ORZHU OLPLW WR WKH VXEOLPLQDO UDQJH DURXQG G% D ILQGLQJ FRUURERUDWHG E\ 8UEDQ f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f DQG D UDWH RI H[SRVXUHV SHU VWLPXOXV ZLWK DQ LQWHUVWLPXOXV LQWHUYDO RI VHFRQGV 6ZLQJOH *URHJHU )XGLQ t %HQMDPLQ f 6LOYHUPDQ UHSRUWV D WKDW D GRVH RI IRXU PVHF SUHVHQWDWLRQV SURGXFHV LPSURYHPHQWV LQ EHKDYLRU IRU XS WR PLQXWHV EXW IRU ORQJHUWHUP LPSURYHPHQWV GRVHVZHHN IRU

PAGE 79

ZHHNV LV UHTXLUHG 6LOYHUPDQ %URQVWHLQ t 0HQGHOVRKQ f 0DVNHG YLVXDO SUHVHQWDWLRQV DUH JHQHUDOO\ VOLJKWO\ ORQJHU UDQJLQJ IURP PVHF ZLWK SDWWHUQ PDVNV IURP PVHF &KHHVPDQ t 0HULNOH f ,W LV VWLOO XQFOHDU KRZ VKRUW DXGLWRU\ SUHVHQWDWLRQV FDQ EH WR EH HIIHFWLYH 7KH UHODWLRQVKLS RI SHUFHSWLRQ RI WKH VWLPXOXV DQG WKHUDSHXWLF HIIHFWLYHQHVV RU GRVHUHVSRQVH UDWLR KDV QRW EHHQ HVWDEOLVKHG $XGLWRU\ VWLPXOL LQ UHFHQW VWXGLHV UDQJH LQ GXUDWLRQ IURP OHVV WKDQ RQH PLQXWH WR PLQXWHV %HQHV *XWNLQ t 'HFNHU %RUJHDW HW DO )XGLQ t %HQMDPLQ 6ZLQJOH f 0DQ\ VWXGLHV GR QRW UHSRUW WKH GXUDWLRQ RU QXPEHU RI SUHVHQWDWLRQV RI WKH VWLPXOXV %RUQVWHLQ f VXJJHVWV WKDW LQ PHUH H[SRVXUH UHVHDUFK ERUHGRP RU RYHUH[SRVXUH WR VWLPXOL PD\ VHUYH WR GLPLQLVK WKH HIIHFWV RI VXJJHVWLRQV 7KLV HIIHFW KDV QRW EHHQ GRFXPHQWHG LQ DXGLWRU\ PDVNLQJ VWXGLHV 8UEDQ f HQFRXUDJHV WKH SRWHQWLDWLRQ RI PHVVDJHV E\ XVLQJ WHFKQLTXHV RI FRPSUHVVLRQ VSHHGLQJ RU PXOWLWUDFNLQJ LQ WKH VRXQG VWXGLR DOORZLQJ D JUHDWHU QXPEHU RI PHVVDJHV WR ILW ZLWKLQ D WLPH SHULRG +RZHYHU ERWK 8UEDQ f DQG 6ZLQJOH f UHSRUW WKDW WKHUH LV OLWWOH HYLGHQFH WKDW SODFLQJ D KLJK QXPEHU RI PHVVDJHV RQ D WDSH LV PRUH HIIHFWLYH WKDQ D IHZ WUDFNV PLQLPDOO\ PDVNHG DQG SURGXFHG ZLWK KLJK ILGHOLW\

PAGE 80

0DVNLQJ WHFKQLTXHV 2QH RI WKH PRUH GLIILFXOW DVSHFWV RI WKH SUHSDUDWLRQ RI VXEOLPLQDO DXGLWRU\ PDWHULDOV LV WKDW RI NHHSLQJ WKH PHVVDJH DW D UHODWLYHO\ FRQVWDQW OHYHO EHORZ DPELHQW 3URIHVVLRQDO SUHSDUDWLRQ RI WDSHV DOORZV HOHFWURQLF PDQLSXODWLRQ DQG GLJLWL]DWLRQ WR PDLQWDLQ D FRQVWDQW VLJQDOWRDPELHQW OHYHO 8UEDQ f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f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

PAGE 81

G% UHODWLYH WR DPELHQW 7KXV WKH PHVVDJH DOZD\V UHPDLQV EHORZ WKH GHWHFWLRQ WKUHVKROG /HDNDJH YDULHV ZLWK WKH IUHTXHQF\ RI WKH VXEOLPLQDO VRXQG PDOH DQG IHPDOH YRLFHV RI LGHQWLFDO VRXQG OHYHOV GLIIHU LQ WHUPV RI GHWHFWDELOLW\ ZKHQ HPEHGGHG LQ DQ LGHQWLFDO ZKLWH QRLVH PHGLXP 6ZLQJOH f 6ZLQJOH f DOVR GLVFXVVHV WKH XVH RI EDFNZDUG UHFRUGLQJ DV PDVNLQJ WR DVVXUH WKDW WKH 63/ RI PHVVDJHV JLYHQ WR FRQWUROV LV FRPSDUDEOH WR WKDW RI WUHDWPHQW VXEMHFWV %DVHOLQH HYDOXDWLRQ $ UHYLHZ RI DXGLWRU\ VXEOLPLQDO SV\FKRG\QDPLF DFWLYDWLRQ VWXGLHV GRQH E\ )XGLQ t %HQMDPLQ f LQGLFDWHV WKDW PRVW LQYHVWLJDWRUV PHDVXUH DXGLWRU\ WKUHVKROGV RQ VXEMHFWV EHIRUH SUHVHQWLQJ WKH WUHDWPHQW 7KH PHDVXUHPHQW RI EDVHOLQH DXGLWRU\ WKUHVKROGV LV DOVR DGYRFDWHG E\ %RUJHDW HW DO f 8UEDQ f DQG 6ZLQJOH f 2XWFRPH PHDVXUHV 8UEDQ f VXJJHVWV WKDW RXWFRPH PHDVXUHV DSSURSULDWH WR SURWRFROV WKDW XVH FRQVFLRXVO\ DYDLODEOH VWLPXOL DUH SRRUO\ VXLWHG WR WKH FDVH RI VXEOLPLQDO VWLPXOL $OWKRXJK YHUEDO UHSRUWV FRQWLQXH WR EH XVHG PDQ\ UHVHDUFKHUV ILQG WKH\ DUH XQUHOLDEOH LQGLFDWRUV RI SHUFHSWLRQ +H VXJJHVWV GHILQLWLRQ DQG PHDVXUHPHQW RI HIIHFWV VHFRQGDU\ WR SUHGLFWDEOH RXWFRPHV RU UHTXLULQJ VXEMHFWV WR LGHQWLI\ D VXEOLPLQDO VWLPXOXV EDVHG RQ VXEMHFWLYH SUHIHUHQFH $Q\ XQFRQVFLRXV SURFHVV PD\ KDYH

PAGE 82

EHHQ IOHHWLQJO\ FRQVFLRXV EXW IRUJRWWHQ 2U LQ FRQWUDVW XSZDUG WUHQGV LQ PHPRU\ PD\ WUDQVIRUP XQFRQVFLRXV SHUFHSWXDO WUDFHV LQWR FRQVFLRXV WUDFHV DW D ODWHU LQWHUYDO (UGHO\L 0HULNOH t 5HLQJROG f )RUFHGFKRLFH HLWKHU?RUf UHVSRQGLQJ KDV EHHQ DGYRFDWHG E\ PDQ\ UHVHDUFKHUV DV D PHDVXUH RI REMHFWLYH WKUHVKROGV 7KLV PHWKRG UHTXLUHV WKH VXEMHFW WR JXHVV PD[LPL]LQJ WKH RSSRUWXQLW\ IRU XQFRQVFLRXV HIIHFWV DQG HOLPLQDWHV KLGGHQ YDULDEOHV LQYROYHG LQ VXEMHFWLYH WKUHVKROG RU RSHQHQGHG UHVSRQGLQJ 0HULNOH 0HULNOH t 5HLQJROG f %RUQVWHLQ f QRWHG WKDW LQ VXEOLPLQDO PHUH H[SRVXUH UHVHDUFK D SHULRG RI GHOD\ EHWZHHQ VWLPXOXV H[SRVXUH DQG GHSHQGHQW PHDVXUHV UHVXOWHG LQ VWURQJHU H[SRVXUH HIIHFWV WKDQ ZKHQ WKHUH ZDV QR GHOD\ &RQFOXVLRQ $V WKH IRUJRLQJ UHYLHZ DWWHVWV D VL]DEOH ERG\ RI UHVHDUFK KDV PDGH LW FOHDU WRGD\ WKDW VXEOLPLQDO HIIHFWV DUH IDUUHDFKLQJ DQG KROG FRQVLGHUDEOH SRWHQWLDO DV D SV\FKRORJLFDO LQWHUYHQWLRQ +RZHYHU GHVSLWH WKH VRSKLVWLFDWLRQ RI UHVHDUFK GHVLJQ DQG WKHRU\ PDQ\ IXQGDPHQWDO SDUDPHWHUV RI SHUFHSWLRQ ZLWKRXW DZDUHQHVV UHPDLQ UHODWLYHO\ XQNQRZQ 7KH SDUDPHWHUV RI WKH VXEOLPLQDO ZLQGRZ IRU GLIIHUHQW YLVXDO DQG DXGLWRU\ VWLPXOL DQG WKH GLIIHUHQWLDO HIIHFWV RI ULJKW DQG OHIW KHPLVSKHUH SURFHVVLQJ UHPDLQ WR EH GLVFRYHUHG 6SHQFH .OHLQ t )HUQDQGH] f (IIHFWLYH

PAGE 83

SDUDPHWHUV IRU GRVDJH H[SRVXUH WLPH DQG LQWHQVLW\ RI WKH VWLPXOXV LQWHUYDOV EHWZHHQ H[SRVXUHV QXPEHU RI ZRUGV DQG OHWWHUV WKDW FDQ EH XQGHUVWRRG DW UDSLG H[SRVXUH WLPHV DQG WKH PDJQLWXGH RI WKH VWLPXOL DUH DOO DUHDV ZKLFK DUH RQO\ EHJLQQLQJ WR EH HODERUDWHG 1RU GR ZH KDYH UHOLDEOH LQIRUPDWLRQ DERXW WKH GXUDWLRQ RI WKH HIIHFW DIWHU D VXEMHFW LV H[SRVHG WR D VXEOLPLQDO VWLPXOXV )XGLQ t %HQMDPLQ 0DVOLQJ f 7KH GLIILFXOW\ RI VFLHQWLILFDOO\ FDSWXULQJ VXEOLPLQDO HIIHFWV DQG SURYLQJ WKDW LQGHHG WKH HIIHFWV PHDVXUHG DUH VXEOLPLQDO KDV ZHDNHQHG WKH LPSDFW RI PDQ\ FDUHIXOO\ FRQGXFWHG H[SHULPHQWV 5HVHDUFKHUV LQ WKH ILHOG DUH EHJLQQLQJ WR VWUHVV WKH QHHG IRU VWDQGDUGL]DWLRQ RI UHVHDUFK PHWKRGRORJ\ EXW QR FRQVHQVXDO VWDQGDUG KDV \HW HYROYHG 8UEDQ f 7KH PRVW UHFHQW VWXGLHV LQ VRPH NH\ DUHDV GDWH EDFN WR WKH V DQG UHVXOWV KDYH QRW EHHQ UHSOLFDWHG 7KHVH SUREOHPV LQIOXHQFH WKH GHVLJQ RI UHVHDUFK VWXGLHV EXW QHHG QRW VWDQG LQ WKH ZD\ RI PDNLQJ XVH RI WKH LQIRUPDWLRQ ZKLFK KDV HPHUJHG IRU EHQHILFLDO DGMXQFWLYH FOLQLFDO LQWHUYHQWLRQV +\SQRVLV 7R WKH PRGHUQ VFLHQWLVW K\SQRVLV UHPDLQV D IDVFLQDWLQJ HQLJPD GHVSLWH D KDOIFHQWXU\ RI UHVHDUFK ,WV HVVHQFH LV D PDWWHU RI LQWHQVH LQYHVWLJDWLRQ FRQWURYHUV\ DQG VORZ GLVFRYHU\ 6FKXPDNHU /\QQ t 5KXH D 1DGRQ /DXUHQFH t 3HUU\ 6SDQRV %DQ\DL f 7KH

PAGE 84

HIIHFWLYH SUDFWLFH RI K\SQRVLV LQYROYHV HOHPHQWV RI ERWK DUW DQG VFLHQFH 6RPH EHOLHYH LW FRQQHFWV DW WLPHV ZLWK WKH VRXUFH RI KXPDQ VSLULWXDOLW\ YLD WKH PLQGERG\ FRQQHFWLRQ 5RVVL t &KHHN 5RVVL f 7KHRULHV RI +\SQRVLV :LGHO\ GLIIHULQJ WKHRUHWLFDO SHUVSHFWLYHV RQ K\SQRVLV KDYH VWLPXODWHG FRQVLGHUDEOH UHVHDUFK DQG GLVFXVVLRQ RYHU WKH SDVW ILIW\ \HDUV 7KH WUDGLWLRQ LQKHULWHG IURP 0HVPHU %UDLG &KDUFRW )UHXG DQG (ULFNVRQ GHILQHV K\SQRVLV DV D XQLTXH DOWHUHG VWDWH RI LQFUHDVHG UHVSRQVLYHQHVV WR VXJJHVWLRQ LH D WUDQFHf ZKLFK HQDEOHV DQ LQGLYLGXDO WR RSW RXW RI REMHFWLYH UHDOLW\ DFFHSW ORJLFDO FRQWUDGLFWLRQV H[SHULHQFH GLVWRUWLRQV LQ SHUFHSWLRQ DQG PHPRU\ DV LI WKH\ ZHUH QRUPDO SKHQRPHQD DQG H[WHQG FRQWURO RI ERG\ DQG PLQG EH\RQG XVXDO OLPLWV 2UQH )URPP D 6KRU E 7HOOHJHQ 6FKXPDNHU .LKOVWURP f $ FRQWUDVWLQJ SHUVSHFWLYH ZKLFK GHYHORSHG LQ WKH V DVVRFLDWHG PRVW FORVHO\ ZLWK %DUEHU f &RH DQG 6DUELQ f DQG 6SDQRV f GHQLHV WKH SUHVHQFH RI DQ DOWHUHG VWDWH DQG GHVFULEHV K\SQRVLV DV D VRFLDO LQWHUDFWLRQ LQ ZKLFK RQH SHUVRQ LV PRWLYDWHG WR UHVSRQG WR VXJJHVWLRQV RIIHUHG E\ DQRWKHU IRU H[SHULHQFHV LQYROYLQJ DOWHUDWLRQV LQ SHUFHSWLRQ PHPRU\ DQG YROXQWDU\ DFWLRQ 7KHVH H[SHULHQFHV DQG EHKDYLRUV PD\ VRPHWLPHV EH DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK D VXEMHFWLYH FRQYLFWLRQ VLPLODU WR GHOXVLRQ DQG ZLWK LQYROXQWDULQHVV ERUGHULQJ RQ FRPSXOVLRQ %DUEHU t &DOYHUO\ 6SDQRV t +HZLWW 6SDQRV -RQHV t 0DOIDUD

PAGE 85

.LKOVWURP 6SDQRV f 7KHVH WZR SRVLWLRQV IRUPHG WKH WZR SROHV RI WKH VWDWH YHUVXV QRQVWDWH FRQWURYHUV\ ZKLFK KDG PRWLYDWHG UHVHDUFK DQG WKHRUHWLFDO GLYHUVLILFDWLRQ LQ UHFHQW \HDUV EXW VWLOO KDV QRW IRXQG UHVROXWLRQ 2YHU WKH SDVW \HDUV WKHRUHWLFDO PRGHOV KDYH PXOWLSOLHG &RH DQG 6DUELQ f OLNHQ WKH K\SQRWLF VFHQDULR WR D GUDPD LQ ZKLFK VXEMHFW DQG K\SQRWLVW DJUHH WR FUHDWLYHO\ LQWHUDFW LQ FRPSOHPHQWDU\ UROHV ,QGLYLGXDOV ZLWK FUHDWLYH LPDJLQDWLRQV DELOLW\ WR VXVSHQG UHDOLW\ DQG VNLOO DW UROHSOD\LQJ DUH EHOLHYHG WR PDNH WKH EHVW VXEMHFWV :DJVWDIInV f VRFLRFRJQLWLYH PRGHO IRFXVHV RQ PRWLYDWLRQ IRU FRPSOLDQFH DQG EHOLHI LQ WKH K\SQRWLVW DV WKH NH\ IDFWRUV LQ K\SQRVLV (ULFNVRQ GHYHORSHG D PRGHO RI K\SQRVLV EDVHG RQ KLJKO\ VHQVLWL]HG LQWHUSHUVRQDO FRPPXQLFDWLRQ WRZDUG DQ HQG RI HOLFLWLQJ ODWHQW KXPDQ SRWHQWLDO DQG SURPRWLQJ WKHUDSHXWLF UHVXOWV (ULFNVRQ (ULFNVRQ t 5RVVL =HLJ t 5HQQLFN f 5HFHQWO\ +LOJDUG f GHYHORSLQJ LGHDV RULJLQDWHG E\ -DQHW DQG 3ULQFH KDV SURSRVHG WKDW K\SQRVLV LQYROYHV D GLVVRFLDWHG VWDWH RU D FRFRQVFLRXVQHVV ZKLFK FDQ EH FRPPXQLFDWHG ZLWK GLUHFWO\ ZLWKRXW WKH GLVWRUWLRQV GXH WR SULPDU\ SURFHVV WKLQNLQJ RU DUFKDLF V\PEROV )URPP Df 0XUUD\-REVLV f DQG 1DVK f YLHZ K\SQRVLV DV D VSHFLDO DOWHUHG VWDWH RI SV\FKRORJLFDO UHJUHVVLRQ DURXQG WKH DUFKHW\SDO ILJXUH RI WKH K\SQRWLVW LQYROYLQJ DQ LQFUHDVH LQ SULPDU\ SURFHVV PDWHULDO PRUH VSRQWDQHRXV HPRWLRQ DQG D SRVWXUH RI

PAGE 86

UHFHSWLYLW\ WR H[SHULHQFH (GPRQGVWRQ f DQG %HQVRQ t +RIIPDQ f VWUHVV WKH YLHZ WKDW WKH HVVHQWLDO SURSHUW\ RI K\SQRVLV LV GHHS UHOD[DWLRQ LQGLFDWLQJ WKDW WKH SK\VLRORJLFDO VRFLDO DQG SKHQRPHQRORJLFDO FKDUDFWHULVWLFV RI K\SQRVLV DV ZHOO DV LWV DELOLW\ WR VWUHQJWKHQ FRPPXQLFDWLRQ ZLWK WKH XQFRQVFLRXV PLQG DUH DOO WKH UHVXOW RI UHOD[DWLRQ 7R WKH VWXGHQW RI K\SQRVLV HDFK RI WKHVH PRGHOV LOOXPLQDWHV D SRUWLRQ RI WKH FRPSOH[LW\ RI K\SQRWLF LQWHUDFWLRQ 5HFHQWO\ VHYHUDO LQWHJUDWLYH RU PXOWLIDFWRULDO PRGHOV KDYH EHHQ SURSRVHG /\QQ t 5KXH 1DGRQ /DXUHQFH t 3HUU\ f ZKLFK WDNH LQWR DFFRXQW SUHK\SQRWLF FRJQLWLYH VFKHPD RI WKH VXEMHFW VRFLDO DQG VLWXDWLRQDO YDULDEOHV WUDQVIHUHQFH DQG FRPPXQLFDWLRQ IDFWRUV VXEMHFWLYH VWDWH DQG SHUVRQDOLW\ RU VNLOO IDFWRUV $ WKRURXJK H[SODQDWLRQ RI K\SQRVLV ZLOO PRVW SUREDEO\ HYROYH WKURXJK D IXUWKHULQJ RI WKLV LQWHJUDWLYH WKHRUHWLFDO SURFHVV +\SQRWLF ,QYHVWLJDWLRQ RI 8QFRQVFLRXV 3URFHVVHV 7KH FRQFHSW RI DQ XQFRQVFLRXV PLQG SURJUHVVLYHO\ SHQHWUDWHG SV\FKRORJ\ IROORZLQJ WKH GLVFRYHU\ E\ GH 3X\VHJXU LQ RI SRVWK\SQRWLF DPQHVLD DQG KLV SRVWXODWH RI WZR PHPRULHV RQH FRQVFLRXV DQG WKH RWKHU XQFRQVFLRXV )UHXG DOVR RIWHQ VWUHVVHG WKH OLQN EHWZHHQ K\SQRVLV DQG XQFRQVFLRXV SURFHVVHV ZKLFK KH ILUVW REVHUYHG ZKHQ VWXG\LQJ K\VWHULD XQGHU &KDUFRW LQ 3DULV &KHUWRN (GPRQGVWRQ f %UHXHU &KDUFRW )UHXG DQG -DQHW XVHG K\SQRVLV DV D PHDQV RI JDLQLQJ DFFHVV WR XQFRQVFLRXV PHPRULHV IURP ZKLFK K\VWHULFDO

PAGE 87

V\PSWRPV RULJLQDWHG 6WURVV t 6KHYULQ f 7KH SKHQRPHQD RI SRVWK\SQRWLF VXJJHVWLRQ DQG K\SQRWLF UHJUHVVLRQ SURYLGH RWKHU FOHDU LOOXVWUDWLRQV RI K\SQRWLF FRPPXQLFDWLRQ ZLWK XQFRQVFLRXV SURFHVVHV 6WURVV t 6KHYULQ f VWUHVV WKH XQLJXH UROH SOD\HG E\ K\SQRVLV LQ PDNLQJ DYDLODEOH RWKHUZLVH XQNQRZQ UHODWLRQVKLSV EHWZHHQ IRUJRWWHQ SDVW H[SHULHQFHV DQG FXUUHQW V\PSWRPV GUHDPV EHKDYLRU DQG WKRXJKW SDWWHUQV &KHUWRN f DVVHUWHG DW WKH )LUVW ,QWHUQDWLRQDO 6\PSRVLXP RQ WKH 8QFRQVFLRXV LQ 7ELOLVL 5XVVLD WKDW GHVSLWH WKH SOXUDOLW\ RI YLHZV DERXW XQFRQVFLRXV SKHQRPHQD LQWHUQDWLRQDOO\ WKH OLQN EHWZHHQ WKH WHUPV K\SQRVLV DQG XQFRQVFLRXV LV XQLYHUVDOO\ DFNQRZOHGJHG )URPP Df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t 6SLQLHU f 7KH K\SQRWLVWVXEMHFW UHODWLRQVKLS KDV EHHQ GHVFULEHG DV D SULPDU\ UHODWLRQVKLS FKDUDFWHUL]HG E\ UHJUHVVLRQ IXVLRQ DQG V\PELRVLV HYHQ LQ WKH

PAGE 88

DEVHQFH RI DQ\ SUHYLRXV LQWHUSHUVRQDO OLQN &KHUWRN f RU DV SHUVSHFWLYHOHVV RYHUYDOXDWLRQ 'LDPRQG S f 0XFK RI WKH SRZHU RI K\SQRWLF VXJJHVWLRQ KDV EHHQ DWWULEXWHG WR WKH VXEMHFWnV XQFRQVFLRXV DUFKDLF LQYROYHPHQW ZLWK WKH ILJXUH RI WKH K\SQRWLVW 6KRU Ef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f ZKLFK LV FORVHO\ UHODWHG WR WKH FRQFHSW RI VWDWH GHSHQGHQW OHDUQLQJ 7KLV WKHRUHWLFDO SHUVSHFWLYH K\SRWKHVL]HV D W\SH RI SDUDOOHO RU LQWHUPLWWHQW SURFHVVLQJ RI LQIRUPDWLRQ ZKLFK WR VRPH H[WHQW FDQ EH PDGH FRQVFLRXV RU XQFRQVFLRXV E\ D GHFLVLRQ RI WKH VXEMHFWnV H[HFXWLYH IXQFWLRQ ,Q GLVVRFLDWLYH GLVRUGHUV WKLV RFFXUV DV D UHVSRQVH WR GHHS WUDXPD ,Q K\SQRVLV LW LV WKHRUL]HG WKDW WKH VXEMHFW DJUHHV WR DOORFDWH SDUW RI WKH H[HFXWLYH IXQFWLRQ WR WKH K\SQRWLVW UHVXOWLQJ LQ DQ H[SHULHQFH RI VRPH LQYROXQWDULQHVV RU DXWRPDWLFLW\ ZLWK

PAGE 89

UHVSHFW WR K\SQRWLF VXJJHVWLRQV DQG D UHGXFWLRQ LQ WKH UHDOLW\ RULHQWDWLRQ RI WKH PRQLWRULQJ IXQFWLRQ %HFDXVH RI WKLV VKDUHG FRQWURO K\SQRWLF VXJJHVWLRQ PD\ DOVR UHYHUVH WKH GLYLGHG SURFHVVLQJ DQG EULQJ WKH LQIRUPDWLRQ LQWR FRQVFLRXVQHVV WR VXFK H[WHQW DV WKH VXEMHFW LV ZLOOLQJ %HDKUV f KDV UHYLYHG WKH FRQFHSW RI FRn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t 6LURQL f IRXQG WKDW K\SQRWLF EHKDYLRU LV PHGLDWHG WR VRPH GHJUHH E\ D G\QDPLF EDODQFH EHWZHHQ WKH DP\JGDOD DQG WKH KLSSRFDPSXV WZR HOHPHQWV RI WKH OLPELF V\VWHP YLHZHG DV WKH UHJXODWRU RI GHHS XQFRQVFLRXV XUJHV DQG QHHGV -RVHSK f 7KLV FRQQHFWLRQ KDV EHHQ

PAGE 90

FDUULHG RYHU E\ 5RVVL &KHHN DQG RWKHUV LQWR WKH DYHQXH RI SV\FKRVRPDWLF PHGLFLQH 3V\FKRVRPDWLF V\PSWRPV DUH YLHZHG DV EHLQJ DFTXLUHG E\ D SURFHVV RI H[SHULHQWLDO OHDUQLQJ WKURXJK VWDWH GHSHQGHQW OHDUQLQJ RI UHVSRQVH SDWWHUQV DV GHVFULEHG LQ 6HO\HnV *HQHUDO $GDSWDWLRQ 6\QGURPH 6HO\H f &KURQLF PLQGERG\ SUREOHPV DUH VHHQ DV PDQLIHVWDWLRQV RI VWDWHERXQG SDWWHUQV RI OHDUQLQJ ZKLFK KDYH EHFRPH HQFRGHG ZLWKLQ WKH OLPELFK\SRWKDODPLF V\VWHP PRGXODWLQJ PLQGERG\ FRPPXQLFDWLRQ 7KLV V\VWHP FRRUGLQDWHV DOO PDMRU FKDQQHOV RI PLQGERG\ UHJXODWLRQ YLD WKH DXWRQRPLF HQGRFULQH LPPXQH DQG QHXURSHSWLGH V\VWHPV 0HVVHQJHU PROHFXOHV HJ KRUPRQHV QHXURWUDQVPLWWHUV DQG LPPXQRWUDQVPLWWHUVf IORZLQJ WKURXJK WKHVH FKDQQHOV PHGLDWH PLQGERG\ FRPPXQLFDWLRQV DQG WUDQVIRUPDWLRQ 7KLV DSSHDUV WR EH WKH SK\VLRORJLFDO EDVLV IRU XQFRQVFLRXV PLQGERG\ KHDOLQJ ZKLFK RFFXUV WKURXJK WKHUDSHXWLF K\SQRVLV WKH SODFHER UHVSRQVH DQG KROLVWLF PHGLFLQH +DOO ? 'DUE\ 6LHJHO 5RVVL 5RVVL t &KHHN f +\SQRVLV PDNHV LW SRVVLEOH WR DFW E\ VLPSOH VXJJHVWLRQ RQ D YDULHW\ RI SK\VLRORJLFDO IXQFWLRQV ZKLFK HOXGH YROXQWDU\ FRQWURO ,GHRG\QDPLF VLJQDOLQJ KDV EHHQ YLHZHG E\ VRPH SUDFWLWLRQHUV DV D SRWHQWLDO URXWH RI GLUHFW FRPPXQLFDWLRQ ZLWK WKHVH XQFRQVFLRXV SV\FKRSK\VLRORJLFDO SURFHVVHV 5RVVL t &KHHN &KHHN f ([SORUDWLRQ RI WKLV W\SH RI LQWHUDFWLRQ EHWZHHQ UHODWLRQDO DQG SV\FKRSK\VLRORJLFDO SKHQRPHQD FDQ SURYLGH D IXQGDPHQWDO NH\ WR RXU XQGHUVWDQGLQJ RI XQFRQVFLRXV SURFHVVHV &KHUWRN f $W

PAGE 91

SUHVHQW ZH KDYH RQO\ D YHU\ OLPLWHG XQGHUVWDQGLQJ RI WKLV LQWHUDFWLRQ +\SQRWLF 6XJJHVWLELOLW\ 6FKXPDNHU f UHIHUV WR VXJJHVWLELOLW\ DV DQ HYHUn SUHVHQW GHWHUPLQLQJ IDFWRU LQ RXU EHKDYLRU S f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t 1DGRQ f )ROORZLQJ WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI WKH 6WDQIRUG +\SQRWLF 6XVFHSWLELOLW\ 6FDOH :HLW]HQKRIIHU t +LOJDUG f WKH ILUVW VWDQGDUGL]HG VXVFHSWLELOLW\ VFDOH WKH WHUPV K\SQRWLF VXVFHSWLELOLW\ DQG K\SQRWLF GHSWK ZHUH JHQHUDOO\ XVHG LQWHUFKDQJHDEO\ XQGHU WKH DVVXPSWLRQ WKDW GHSWK RI WUDQFH FRXOG EH LQIHUUHG IURP UHVSRQVHV HOLFLWHG IROORZLQJ D WUDGLWLRQDO LQGXFWLRQ DQG VWDQGDUGL]HG VHW RI VXJJHVWLRQV 7KH FRQFHSW RI FDSDFLW\ WR UHVSRQG WR K\SQRWLF VXJJHVWLRQ ZDV FRQIRXQGHG ZLWK WKH PRPHQWDU\ VWDWH RI K\SQRVLV XQGHU WKLV DSSURDFK /DXUHQFH t 1DGRQ 6WDQJHU f

PAGE 92

7RGD\ WKHRUHWLFDO GLIIHUHQFHV DERXW WKH QDWXUH RI K\SQRVLV DUH UHIOHFWHG LQ YDU\LQJ SHUVSHFWLYHV RQ VXJJHVWLELOLW\ DQG GHSWK RI WUDQFH 7KRVH ZKR YLHZ K\SQRVLV DV DQ DOWHUHG VWDWH RI FRQVFLRXVQHVV YLHZ VXJJHVWLELOLW\ DV D UHODWLYH SURSHQVLW\ WR DFFHSW D FRPPXQLFDWHG LGHD ZLWKRXW UDWLRQDO FULWLFDO UHYLHZ LQ WKH DEVHQFH RI ORJLFDOO\ DGHTXDWH UHDVRQ )URPP 5RVVL t &KHHN (ULFNVRQ f 3URSRQHQWV RI D QRQVWDWH SHUVSHFWLYH H[SODLQ LW DV D VNLOO RU PRWLYDWLRQ IRU D SDUWLFXODU IRUP RI VWUDWHJLF VRFLDO LQWHUDFWLRQ EDVHG RQ FRQVFLRXV SODQQLQJ DQG WKRXJKW &RH t 6DUELQ :DJVWDII 6SDQRV f 0RUH UHFHQWO\ RWKHUV KDYH VXJJHVWHG WKDW D FDSDFLW\ IRU DEVRUEWLRQ &RXQFLO .LUVFK t +DIQHU &DUGHQD t 6SLHJHO f GHSWK RI DUFKDLF LQYROYHPHQW 6KRU Ef FUHDWLYH LPDJHU\ RU WKH GHJUHH RI LQYROXQWDULQHVV RI UHVSRQVHV %DUEHU t :LOVRQ ? %RZHUV f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f 6XJJHVWLELOLW\ LV XVHG PRUH EURDGO\ WR

PAGE 93

UHIOHFW UHVSRQVLYHQHVV WR K\SQRWLF VXJJHVWLRQ DQG K\SQRWL]DELOLW\ PD\ GHQRWH WKH FDSDFLW\ WR EH K\SQRWL]HG LQFOXGLQJ DQ\ UHOHYDQW HOHPHQWV RI WKLV FDSDFLW\ EH\RQG WKRVH PHDVXUHG RQ WKH VXVFHSWLELOLW\ VFDOHV +\SQRWLF GHSWK PD\ ILJXUH LQWR WKLV EURDGHU GHILQLWLRQ RI K\SQRWL]DELOLW\ DOWKRXJK GHSWK KDV EHJXQ WR EH DVVRFLDWHG PRUH VSHFLILFDOO\ ZLWK VHOIUHSRUW PHDVXUHV RI PRPHQWDU\ VXEMHFWLYH VWDWXV RQ D FRQWLQXXP IURP QRUPDO ZDNLQJ VWDWH WR GHHS VRPQDPEXOLVWLF WUDQFH 7DUW ? 7HOOHJHQ ? 3HUU\ t /DXUHQFH :HLW]HQKRIIHU +LOJDUG /DXUHQFH t 1DGRQ %DOWKD]DUG f (VWLPDWHV RI SRSXODWLRQ VXVFHSWLELOLW\ UDWHV KDYH EHHQ UHYLVHG GRZQZDUG DV PHDVXUHPHQW KDV EHFRPH VWDQGDUGL]HG DURXQG UHVSRQVH WR VSHFLILF XQLIRUP VXJJHVWLRQV +LOJDUG HW DO f UHYLHZ DQG VXPPDUL]H WK FHQWXU\ K\SQRWLVWVn HVWLPDWHV LQGLFDWLQJ WKDW DQ DYHUDJH RI b RI LQGLYLGXDOV ZHUH GHHPHG FDSDEOH RI VRPH GHJUHH RI K\SQRWLF UHVSRQVLYHQHVV b GHHS b PRGHUDWH DQG b OLJKWf WKH RWKHU b EHLQJ UHIUDFWRU\ QRQVXVFHSWLEOHV 0RUH UHFHQW HVWLPDWHV EDVHG RQ UHVXOWV RI ODERUDWRU\ VWXGLHV XVLQJ WKH 6WDQIRUG +\SQRWLF 6XVFHSWLELOLW\ 6FDOHV LQGLFDWH WKDW DERXW b RI WKH SRSXODWLRQ LV FDSDEOH RI VRPH K\SQRWLF UHVSRQVH b KLJKO\ VXVFHSWLEOH b PRGHUDWHO\ b OLJKWO\ DQG DQ DGGLWLRQDO b YHU\ OLJKWO\f ZKHUHDV b DUH DVVHVVHG DV FRPSOHWHO\ XQK\SQRWL]DEOH +LOJDUG f 7KHVH ILJXUHV PD\ XQGHUHVWLPDWH WKH DFWXDO UDWH RI UHVSRQVH WR K\SQRWLF

PAGE 94

VXJJHVWLRQ DV WKH\ DUH PHDVXUHG E\ D WUDGLWLRQDO VWDQGDUGL]HG DSSURDFK ZLWKRXW DGDSWDWLRQV LQ WHFKQLJXH WR FRPSHQVDWH IRU LQGLYLGXDO GLIIHUHQFHV RU VLWXDWLRQDO YDULDEOHV &KLOGUHQ VHHP WR KDYH VSHFLDO FDSDFLW\ IRU K\SQRWLF UHVSRQVH $JHV KDYH EHHQ VKRZQ WR EH WKH SULPH VXVFHSWLELOLW\ SHULRG DOWKRXJK FKLOGUHQ JHQHUDOO\ H[KLELW JUHDWHU VXVFHSWLELOLW\ WKDQ DGXOWV EHJLQQLQJ DW DJH PRQWKV :LWKLQ DGXOWV DJH LV QRW DQ LVVXH XQWLO ROG DJH ZKHQ D VOLJKW GHFUHDVH LQ VXVFHSWLELOLW\ KDV EHHQ PHDVXUHG 0RUJDQ t +LOJDUG (GPRQVWRQ f 5HODWHG WR WKLV DJH IDFWRU SHUKDSV LV WKH ILQGLQJ WKDW JHQHUDO PHQWDO DQG SK\VLFDO KHDOWK FRUUHODWHV SRVLWLYHO\ ZLWK K\SQRWL]DELOLW\ (GPRQVWRQ =ORWRJRUVNL +DKQHPDQQ t :LJJV f 6H[ GLIIHUHQFHV LQ WKH GLVWULEXWLRQ RI VXVFHSWLELOLW\ KDYH QRW EHHQ FRQILUPHG +LOJDUG HW DO f 6SLHJHO DQG *UHHQOHDI f GHVFULEH D IL[IOH[ FRQWLQXXP RI SHUVRQDOLW\ VW\OH ZKLFK FRUUHODWHV ZLWK K\SQRWL]DELOLW\ 6XEMHFWV ZLWK D KLJKHU OHYHO RI VWDWH GHSHQGHQW UHVSRQVLYLW\ WR HQYLURQPHQWDO FXHV WHQG WR EH PRVW VXJJHVWLEOH ZKHUHDV WKRVH ZLWK KLJKHU OHYHOV RI LQWHUQDO WUDLW FDSDFLWLHV ZKLFK DUH QRW VXEMHFW WR FKDQJH E\ HQYLURQPHQWDO VWLPXOL DUH OHDVW VXJJHVWLEOH 7KH TXHVWLRQ RI KRZ VWDEOH RU PXWDEOH K\SQRWL]DELOLW\ LV KDV EHHQ DSSURDFKHG IURP QXPHURXV DQJOHV +LOJDUG f UHSRUWV D UHOLDELOLW\ IDFWRU RI WR RQ PHDVXUHV RI

PAGE 95

VXVFHSWLELOLW\ RYHU D SHULRG RI ZHHNV 0RUJDQ -RKQVRQ t +LOJDUG f IROORZHG XS D JURXS RI XQGHUJUDGXDWHV ZLWK UHWHVWLQJ WHQ \HDUV ODWHU DQG IRXQG D FRUUHODWLRQ RI LQGLFDWLQJ VXEVWDQWLDO SHUVLVWHQFH RI PHDVXUHG VXVFHSWLELOLW\ RYHU WLPH 7KH SRVVLELOLW\ RI VRPH JHQHWLF EDVLV IRU K\SQRWL]DELOLW\ KDV QRW EHHQ UXOHG RXW 6KRU 2UQH t 2n&RQQHOO f GLVFXVV WKH FRQFHSW RI SODWHDX K\SQRWL]DELOLW\ LQGLFDWLQJ WKDW FDSDFLW\ IRU K\SQRWLF UHVSRQVLYHQHVV LV RIWHQ KDPSHUHG LQ WKH QRYLFH VXEMHFW E\ DQ[LHW\ IDOVH H[SHFWDWLRQV RU LQH[SHULHQFH EXW WKDW DIWHU VHYHUDO H[SHULHQFHV LW PD\ UHDFK D SODWHDX OHYHO VRPH b KLJKHU ZKLFK UHPDLQV IDLUO\ VWDEOH RYHU UHSHDWHG DVVHVVPHQWV 6HYHUDO VLWXDWLRQDO IDFWRUV KDYH EHHQ IRXQG WR DIIHFW VXVFHSWLELOLW\ 7DORQH 'LDPRQG t 6WHDGPDQ &RXQFLO .LUVFK t +DIQHU :RROVRQ +DPPRQG HW DO 6WDQJHU *HDUDQ t .LUVFK f (ULFNVRQ (ULFNVRQ t 5RVVL f IRXQG WKDW VXEMHFWV ZKR GLG QRW UHVSRQG WR WUDGLWLRQDO GLUHFWLYH K\SQRWLF DSSURDFKHV ZRXOG RIWHQ UHVSRQG WR LQGLUHFW WHFKQLTXHV ([SHFWDQF\ IRU K\SQRVLV KDV EHHQ VKRZQ WR LQFUHDVH VXEMHFWnV PHDVXUHG OHYHOV RI K\SQRWL]DELOLW\ PRVW SUREDEO\ WKURXJK DQ DWWULEXWLRQ SURFHVV VR WKDW ZKHQ DQ LQWHUYHQWLRQ LV SUHVHQWHG DV K\SQRVLV VXEMHFWLYH DQG REMHFWLYH UHSRUWV RI VXVFHSWLELOLW\ DQG GHSWK RI WUDQFH DUH JUHDWHU WKDQ ZKHQ LW LV SUHVHQWHG DV UHOD[DWLRQ D WHVW RI JXOOLELOLW\ RU VLPSO\ VXJJHVWLRQ %DUEHU t &DOYHUO\ E 'ROE\ t 6KHHKDQ 5DGWNH t 6SDQRV

PAGE 96

&RXQFLO .LUVFK t +DIQHU *HDUDQ t .LUVFK f 6SDQRV %XUQOH\ t &URVV f VKRZHG WKDW WKH H[WHQW WR ZKLFK VXEMHFWV SODQ WR UHVSRQG DFWLYHO\ WR VXJJHVWLRQV SUHGLFWHG EHKDYLRUDO DQG VXEMHFWLYH LQGH[HV RI K\SQRWL]DELOLW\ 3URYLVLRQ RI IDYRUDEOH LQIRUPDWLRQ DERXW K\SQRVLV SULRU WR WKH LQGXFWLRQ KDV EHHQ VKRZQ WR UDLVH ERWK VXEMHFWLYH DQG REMHFWLYH UHVSRQVHV WR VXJJHVWLRQV 2Q WKH FRQWUDU\ QHJDWLYH H[SHFWDWLRQV DERXW K\SQRVLV KDYH EHHQ IRXQG WR EH SRZHUIXO LQKLELWRUV RI PHDVXUHG K\SQRWL]DELOLW\ IDFWRUV VXJJHVWLQJ WKDW PDQ\ LQGLYLGXDOV ZKR DSSHDU WR EH XQK\SQRWL]DEOH PD\ UHVSRQG PRUH SRVLWLYHO\ ZKHQ ILUVW SUHVHQWHG ZLWK DQ LQWURGXFWRU\ VHVVLRQ ZKLFK SODFHV WKH H[SHULHQFH LQ D SRVLWLYH IUDPH &URQLQ 6SDQRV t %DUEHU 6SDQRV HW DO f $ QXPEHU RI VSHFLILF WUDLQLQJ SURJUDPV KDYH EHHQ GHYHORSHG WR DWWHPSW WR LPSURYH K\SQRWLF VXVFHSWLELOLW\ %DUEHU t &DOYHUO\ &URQLQ 6SDQRV t %DUEHU &URXVH t .XUW] 6SDQRV HW DO 6SDQRV %DWHV t %ULJKDP %DWHV t .UDIW %HUWUDQG 6WDP t 5DGWNH f 5HVXOWV KDYH EHHQ FRQWUDGLFWRU\ VXSSRUWLQJ DW EHVW D VPDOO DXJPHQWDWLRQ LQ ORQJWHUP FOLQLFDO UHVSRQVH WR K\SQRVLV &URXVH t .XUW] f IRXQG QR FOLQLFDOO\ VLJQLILFDQW JDLQV LQ D FRPSDULVRQ RI WKH LPSDFW RQ VXVFHSWLELOLW\ RI IRXU RI WKH FHQWUDO FRPSRQHQWV RI WKHVH WUDLQLQJ SURFHGXUHV ZKLFK DUH EDVHG RQ D VRFLDO OHDUQLQJ WKHRU\ PRGHO LQVWUXFWLRQDO LQIRUPDWLRQ DERXW K\SQRVLV LQYROYHPHQW LQVWUXFWLRQV JRDOGLUHFWHG IDQWDV\ WUDLQLQJ DQG

PAGE 97

SUDFWLFH LQ UHVSRQGLQJ WR K\SQRWLF VXJJHVWLRQV 7KH PRVW HYROYHG RI WKH WUDLQLQJ DSSURDFKHV LV NQRZQ DV WKH &DUOHWRQ 6NLOOV 7UDLQLQJ 3URJUDP GHYHORSHG E\ 6SDQRV DQG DVVRFLDWHV %DWHV t %ULJKDP 6SDQRV %DWHV t .UDIW f 5HSRUWHG LPPHGLDWH LPSURYHPHQWV LQ K\SQRWL]DELOLW\ UDWLQJV IROORZLQJ WKLV SURJUDP DUH LPSUHVVLYH b RI VXEMHFWV VFRUHG LQ WKH KLJK UDQJHf EXW ORQJHUWHUP UHVXOWV DUH \HW HJXLYRFDO FKDOOHQJLQJ WKH FODLP WKDW VLJQLILFDQW ODVWLQJ FKDQJHV KDYH RFFXUUHG LQ WKH VXEMHFWVn DELOLW\ WR H[SHULHQFH K\SQRVLV %DWHV t .UDIW f 7KH GHYHORSPHQW RI PHDVXUHV RI K\SQRWLF VXVFHSWLELOLW\ KDV SHUPLWWHG WKH H[SORUDWLRQ RI JXHVWLRQV UHJDUGLQJ WKH DPRXQW RI K\SQRWLF DELOLW\ RU WKH GHSWK RI K\SQRWLF H[SHULHQFH QHFHVVDU\ IRU WKH DWWDLQPHQW RI FHUWDLQ FOLQLFDO UHVXOWV 2QH SX]]OLQJ WKLQJ DERXW K\SQRVLV LV WKDW IRU PDQ\ GLVRUGHUV FOLQLFDO LPSURYHPHQW LV QRW UHODWHG WR VXVFHSWLELOLW\ DV PHDVXUHG E\ UHVSRQVH WR EHKDYLRUDO VXJJHVWLRQV +LOJDUG 5RVVL f 7KHUHIRUH RWKHU GLPHQVLRQV RI WKH K\SQRWLF H[SHULHQFH VXFK DV DUFKDLF LQYROYHPHQW 1DVK t 6SLQLHU f DQG SHUVRQDO PRWLYDWLRQ DUH EHLQJ H[SORUHG DV SRWHQWLDO H[SODQDWLRQV IRU WKLV FOLQLFDO VXFFHVV 0HDVXUHPHQW RI +\SQRWL]DELOLW\ DQG 'HSWK RI 7UDQFH &XUUHQW DSSURDFKHV WR WKH PHDVXUHPHQW RI K\SQRWLF SHUIRUPDQFH RULJLQDWHG LQ WKH WK FHQWXU\ 2QH HDUO\ PHWKRG RI PHDVXULQJ K\SQRWL]DELOLW\ ZDV WR KDYH VXEMHFWV VLW LQ D TXLHW URRP DQG OLVWHQ WR D WRQH ZKLFK ZDV SUHVHQWHG DW

PAGE 98

GLIIHULQJ LQWHQVLWLHV 6XEMHFWV ZKR UHVSRQGHG WR ZHDNHU WRQHV ZKLOH LQ UHYHULH WKDQ ZKLOH DZDNH ZHUH QRWHG WR EH PRUH HDVLO\ K\SQRWL]DEOH (GPRQVWRQ f 7KH FODVVLF K\SQRVLV VFDOHV VXFK DV WKH 6WDQIRUG 6FDOHV RI +\SQRWLF 6XVFHSWLELOLW\ :HLW]HQKRIIHU t +LOJDUG f DQG WKH +DUYDUG *URXS 6FDOH RI +\SQRWLF 6XVFHSWLELOLW\ 6KRU t 2UQH f DUH EDVHG RQ D SHUIRUPDQFH ODGGHU PRGHO ZLWK LWHPV RI WKHRUHWLFDOO\ LQFUHDVLQJ GLIILFXOW\ HLWKHU SDVVHG RU IDLOHG 7KH VXEMHFWnV VXVFHSWLELOLW\ LV UHODWHG WR WKH PRVW GLIILFXOW LWHP SDVVHG 7KLV W\SH RI VFDOH LV EDVHG RQ WKH WKHRU\ DQ XQGHUO\LQJ DELOLW\?GLIILFXOW\ FRQWLQXXP VXFK WKDW WKH QXPEHU RI LWHPV DQ LQGLYLGXDO FDQ SDVV VHUYHV DV DQ LQGLFDWRU RI ERWK WKH K\SQRWLF FDSDFLW\ RI WKH LQGLYLGXDO DQG WKH GLIILFXOW\ RI WKH LWHPV %DOWKD]DUG f 7KH FHQWUDO TXHVWLRQ ZLWK WKLV DSSURDFK LV ZKHWKHU WKH VFDOHV SURYLGH D JRRG PHDVXUH RI WKH FRQVWUXFW RI K\SQRWLF VXVFHSWLELOLW\ ,Q JHQHUDO GHVSLWH WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI VHYHUDO QHZHU VFDOHV DQG UHFHQW WKHRUHWLFDO LVVXHV WKH WUDGLWLRQDO VFDOHV VWLOO KDYH VWURQJ VXSSRUW IURP WKH UHVHDUFK FRPPXQLW\ 0F&RQNH\ 6KHHKDQ t /DZ +LOJDUG %RZHUV /DXUHQFH t 1DGRQ 1DGRQ /DXUHQFH t 3HUU\ %DOWKD]DUG f +RZHYHU LQ WKH HDUO\ V TXHVWLRQV EHJDQ WR DULVH UHJDUGLQJ WKH UHODWLRQVKLS RI PHDVXUHG VXVFHSWLELOLW\ WR K\SQRWL]DELOLW\ 7KH SRLQW ZDV UDLVHG WKDW WKHVH VFDOHV GLG QRW WDS WKH FODVVLF VXJJHVWLRQ HIIHFW WKH H[SHULHQFH RI LQYROXQWDULQHVV LQ K\SQRWLF

PAGE 99

UHVSRQGLQJ 7KH SDVV?IDLO SHUIRUPDQFH VFRULQJ V\VWHP GRHV QRW WDNH LQWR DFFRXQW WKH GHJUHH RI LQYROXQWDULQHVV LQ WKH VXEMHFWnV H[SHULHQFH D SRLQW ZKLFK LV UHOHYDQW WR WKH DOWHUHG VWDWH YV VRFLDO LQWHUDFWLRQ WKHRUHWLFDO GHEDWH %RZHUV %RZHUV /DXUHQFH +DUW f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f 6RPH HYLGHQFH KDV HPHUJHG EDVHG RQ FRUUHODWLRQ RI WKH K\SQRVLV VFDOHV ZLWK H[WHUQDO PHDVXUHV WKDW WKH UHODWLYH FRQWULEXWLRQV RI WKH WZR PHFKDQLVPV PD\ YDU\ ZLWK WKH GLIILFXOW\ RI WKH K\SQRWLF SHUIRUPDQFH LWHPV 7HOOHJHQ 6SDQRV HW DO %DOWKD]DUG t :RRG\ f 7KH GLVFRYHU\ RI D VOLJKWO\ ELPRGDO GLVWULEXWLRQ RI VXVFHSWLELOLW\ VFRUHV RQ WKH 6WDQIRUG +\SQRWLF 6XVFHSWLELOLW\ 6FDOH +LOJDUG HW DO f KDV EHHQ FRQVLGHUHG DV SRVVLEOH WKRXJK LQFRQFOXVLYH VXSSRUW IRU WKH WZRIDFWRU WKHRU\

PAGE 100

$OWKRXJK WKH UHVROXWLRQ RI WKH RQH YHUVXV WZR PHFKDQLVP TXHVWLRQ LV VWLOO LQ WKH IXWXUH DWWHPSWV WR LPSURYH RQ WKH PHDVXUHPHQW RI K\SQRWL]DELOLW\ KDYH LQYROYHG WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI VXEMHFWLYH VFDOHV WR FRPSOHPHQW WKH REMHFWLYH SHUIRUPDQFH HYDOXDWLRQV RI WKH VWDQGDUGL]HG VXVFHSWLELOLW\ VFDOHV 6HYHUDO QHZ VFDOHV KDYH DOVR EHHQ FUHDWHG IRFXVLQJ RQ VSHFLILF DVSHFWV RI K\SQRWL]DELOLW\ VXFK DV WKH $EVRUEWLRQ 6FDOH 7HOOHJHQ t $WNLQVRQ f WKH &DUOHWRQ 8QLYHUVLW\ 5HVSRQVLYHQHVV WR 6XJJHVWLRQV 6FDOH 6SDQRV HW DO f WKH %DUEHU 6XJJHVWLELOLW\ 6FDOH %DUEHU t :LOVRQ f WKH &UHDWLYH ,PDJLQDWLRQ 6FDOH %DUEHU t :LOVRQ f WKH $UFKDLF ,QYROYHPHQW 0HDVXUH 1DVK t 6SLQLHU f RU WKH LQGH[ RI QRQYROLWLRQDO EHKDYLRU 19% LQGH[f IRU WKH 6WDQIRUG +\SQRWLF 6XVFHSWLELOLW\ 6FDOH )RUP & %RZHUV f 0HDVXUHPHQW RI WKH GLPHQVLRQ RI K\SQRWLF GHSWK KDV DOVR FRQWLQXHG WR HYROYH VWHPPLQJ IURP WKH WK FHQWXU\ VFDOHV RI %HUQKHLP DQG /LHEDXOW (GPRQVWRQ /DXUHQFH t 1DGRQ f DQG IURP WKH PRUH UHFHQW HIIRUWV RI /H&URQ /H&URQ 7DUW f 8QOLNH WKH K\SQRWLF VXVFHSWLELOLW\ VFDOHV ZKLFK KDYH DFKLHYHG SUDFWLFDO DFFHSWDQFH DPRQJ UHVHDUFKHUV RI YDU\LQJ WKHRUHWLFDO RULHQWDWLRQV K\SQRWLF GHSWK VFDOHV KDYH QRW UHFHLYHG FRQVHQVXDO VXSSRUW 3URSRQHQWV RI WKLV DSSURDFK JHQHUDOO\ VXSSRUW WKH GHVFULSWLRQ RI K\SQRVLV DV D GLVWLQFW DOWHUHG VWDWH RI FRQVFLRXVQHVV D SRVLWLRQ ZKLFK KDV HQFRXQWHUHG FRQVLGHUDEOH WKHRUHWLFDO RSSRVLWLRQ 7KH H[SHULHQWLDO IRFXV RI WKLV GHILQLWLRQ KDV OHG WR WKH

PAGE 101

GHYHORSPHQW RI VHOIUHSRUW HVWLPDWHV RI VXEMHFWLYH GHSWK ZKLFK FDQ EH XVHG DV PRPHQWDU\ JDXJHV RI IOXFWXDWLQJ WUDQFH H[SHULHQFH RU DV D FRUURERUDWLRQ RU FRPSOHPHQW IRU RWKHU REMHFWLYH UDWLQJV 7HOOHJHQ f $ ZLGH YDULHW\ RI W\SHV RI VHOIUHSRUW VFDOHV KDYH EHHQ HPSOR\HG FRQWULEXWLQJ WR GLIILFXOW\ LQ HYDOXDWLQJ FRQVLVWHQF\ RI VXEMHFWLYH UHSRUWV /DXUHQFH t 1DGRQ f )LHOG f GHYHORSHG D UHWURVSHFWLYH VHOIUHSRUW RI K\SQRWLF GHSWK DGPLQLVWHUHG IROORZLQJ WKH K\SQRWLF H[SHULHQFH 7DUW f UHYLHZV DQG FRPSDUHV VL[ VHOIUHSRUW VFDOHV RI K\SQRWLF GHSWK /H&URQ 1RUWK &DUROLQD %ULHI 6WDQIRUG /RQJ 6WDQIRUG +DUYDUG 'LVFUHWH DQG +DUYDUG &RQWLQXRXVf HPSKDVL]LQJ WKHLU VLPLODULWLHV DQG WKHLU XWLOLW\ DV PHDVXUHV RI WKH FKDQJLQJ H[SHULHQFH RI K\SQRVLV 7KH VXEMHFWLYH QDWXUH RI WKHVH VFDOHV KDV OHG WR HIIRUWV WR HYDOXDWH KRZ VXEMHFWV DUULYH DW WKHLU HVWLPDWHV &RXQFLO .LUVFK t +DIQHU f ,Q D VWXG\ UHSHDWHG WZLFH RYHU D RQH\HDU SHULRG 3HUU\ DQG /DXUHQFH f IRXQG FRQVLVWHQW KLJKO\ VLJQLILFDQW FRUUHODWLRQV EHWZHHQ LQVWDQWDQHRXV VXEMHFWLYH GHSWK UHSRUWV RQ D VFDOH RI FRPSOHWHO\ XQK\SQRWL]HGf WR DV GHHSO\ K\SQRWL]HG DV \RX FRXOG HYHU LPDJLQH EHLQJf DQG LQGLYLGXDO LWHPV RI WKH +DUYDUG *URXS 6FDOH RI +\SQRWLF 6XVFHSWLELOLW\ )RUP $ +*6+6$f 2YHUDOO +*6+6$ VFRUHV DOVR FRUUHODWHG DQG ZLWK WKH WRWDO GHSWK VFRUHV 2n&RQQHOO KDG VLPLODU ILQGLQJV LQ $OWKRXJK IXUWKHU H[SORUDWLRQ LV HVVHQWLDO WKHVH UHVXOWV

PAGE 102

VXJJHVW WKDW D UDSSURFKHPHQW LQ WKH WHUPV RI VXVFHSWLELOLW\ DQG K\SQRWLF GHSWK PD\ EH ZDUUDQWHG +\SQRWLF 6XJJHVWLRQ DQG 6HQVRU\ 3HUFHSWLRQ 6HYHUDO W\SHV RI SHUFHSWXDO DOWHUDWLRQV RFFXU GXULQJ K\SQRVLV LQFOXGLQJ SRVLWLYH KDOOXFLQDWLRQV QHJDWLYH KDOOXFLQDWLRQV DQG GLVWRUWLRQV RI SHUFHSWLRQ +RZHYHU WKH RFFXUUHQFH RI SHUFHSWXDO DOWHUDWLRQV WR WKH GHJUHH WKDW WKH VXEMHFW LV FRQYLQFHG RI WKHLU UHDOLW\ LV UDUH %RZHUV f (YLGHQFH RI K\SQRWLF SHUFHSWXDO DOWHUDWLRQV ZDV RQH RI WKH NH\ LVVXHV ZKLFK RULJLQDOO\ VHSDUDWHG WKH FUHGXORXVf DQG VNHSWLFDO YLHZV RI K\SQRVLV D GHEDWH ZKLFK KDV ODVWHG RYHU \HDUV 7KRVH RI WKH FUHGXORXV SHUVSHFWLYH EHOLHYH WKDW K\SQRVLV FDQ SURGXFH DEHUUDWLRQV LQ DQ\ JLYHQ PHQWDO RU EHKDYLRUDO IXQFWLRQ DQG VRPH GHJUHH RI WUDQVFHQGHQFH RI QRUPDO FDSDFLW\ DQG DFFHSW WKH VXEMHFWnV WHVWLPRQ\ DV JHQXLQH (ULFNVRQ 6XWFOLIIH %RZHUV t *LOPRUH f 7KH VNHSWLFV GR QRW DFFHSW K\SQRWLF WHVWLPRQ\ DW IDFH YDOXH VLQFH VRPH VXEMHFWV KDYH EHHQ VKRZQ WR DGRSW GHYLRXV PHDQV RI DFKLHYLQJ VXJJHVWHG HIIHFWV 3DWWLH f 7KH\ GRXEW WKDW K\SQRWLF IDQWDVLHV KDYH WKH VDPH VHQVRU\ LPSDFW DV UHDO VWLPXOL DOWKRXJK WKH\ DFNQRZOHGJH WKDW VXEMHFWV PD\ DFW DV LI WKH\ GR LQ UHVSRQVH WR WKH LPSOLFLW DQG H[SOLFLW H[SHFWDWLRQV RI WKH K\SQRWLVW DQG WKH VLWXDWLRQ 6XWFOLIIH %DUEHU &RH 6SDQRV t +HZLWW :DJVWDII f 7KXV H[SHULPHQWDWLRQ LQ K\SQRWLF DOWHUDWLRQV RI SHUFHSWLRQ KDV JHQHUDOO\ KDG D GXDO SXUSRVH GHWHUPLQLQJ WKH OLPLWV RI WKH

PAGE 103

LPSDFW RI K\SQRWLF VXJJHVWLRQ RQ VHQVRU\ SHUFHSWLRQ DQG LQYHVWLJDWLQJ WKH SKHQRPHQRORJLF H[SHULHQFH DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK WKH VXEMHFWnV YHUEDO UHSRUWV RI K\SQRWLFDOO\ VXJJHVWHG SHUFHSWXDO DEHUUDWLRQV 6WXGLHV RI SHUFHSWXDO FKDQJHV DSSHDU WR EH KLJKO\ VHQVLWLYH WR H[SHFWDQF\ HIIHFWV DV UHVXOWV RIWHQ KDYH WHQGHG WR UHIOHFW RU FRQILUP WKH ELDV DQG H[SHFWDWLRQV RI WKH LQYHVWLJDWRUV 6SDQRV t +HZLWW f 5HFHQWO\ /DXUHQFH 3HUU\ t .LKOVWURP f UHFRPPHQGHG WKH DEDQGRQPHQW RI HLWKHU?RU IDFW YV ILFWLRQ DSSURDFKHV WR SHUFHSWXDO UHVHDUFK VXJJHVWLQJ WKDW FRPSOH[ FRJQLWLYH DQG VRFLDO SKHQRPHQD OLNH K\SQRVLV FDQQRW XVXDOO\ EH H[SODLQHG RU XQGHUVWRRG XVLQJ D ULJLG PRGHO Sf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t +LOJDUG 6WHUQ HW DO 0HGLHU HW DO .LKOVWURP %DUQKDUGW t 7DWDU\Q f +LOJDUG LQ KLV ZRUN RQ WKH KLGGHQ REVHUYHU KDV FRPPXQLFDWHG YHUEDOO\ ZLWK GLVVRFLDWHG SDUWV RI WKH VHOI LQ VRPH VXEMHFWV ZKLFK GR

PAGE 104

UHSRUW SHUFHSWLRQ RI WKH SDLQ DOWKRXJK LW LV QRW D IHDWXUH RI FRQVFLRXV VHQVRU\ DZDUHQHVV +LOJDUG f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t 0F&RQNH\ E .LKOVWURP f %U\DQW t 0F&RQNH\ Ef GHPRQVWUDWHG WKDW D W\SH RI LPSOLFLW YLVXDO SHUFHSWLRQ RFFXUV XQGHU K\SQRVLV XVLQJ FRPSRXQG ZRUG SULPLQJ HJ :,1'2:3$1(f WR VKRZ WKDW DOWKRXJK VXEMHFWV UHSRUWHG QRW VHHLQJ WKH FXHV WKH\ ZHUH PRUH OLNHO\ WR VHOHFW WKH SULPHG VSHOOLQJ RI D ZRUG WKDQ LWV KRPRQ\P HJ 3$1( YV 3$,1f 7KH H[SODQDWLRQ IRU WKH VXEMHFWLYH H[SHULHQFH RI EOLQGQHVV RU SHUFHSWXDO FKDQJH UHSRUWHG DQG WKH IDFWRUV ZKLFK SUHGLVSRVH WRZDUGV WKLV H[SHULHQFH DUH VWLOO EHLQJ H[SORUHG 3DWWLH *ROGLDPRQG t 0DOSDVV %RZHUV t *LOPRUH 0LOOHU /XQG\ t *DOEUDLWK %OXP +LOJDUG %U\DQW t 0F&RQNH\ D E .LKOVWURP %DUQKDUGW t 7DUDU\Q f %U\DQW t 0F&RQNH\ f IRXQG WKDW D FRQVWUXFWLYH VW\OH XVLQJ DFWLYH SHUVRQDO VWUDWHJLHV WR H[SHULHQFH WKH VXJJHVWHG HIIHFWf

PAGE 105

ZDV PRUH HIIHFWLYH WKDQ D FRQFHQWUDWLYH VW\OH IRFXVLQJ WKH WKRXJKWV RQ WKH K\SQRWLVWnV ZRUGVf LQ SURGXFLQJ K\SQRWLF EOLQGQHVV 6RPH EHOLHYH WKDW PRWLYDWLRQ WR FRPSO\ ZLWK WKH K\SQRWLVWnV H[SHFWDWLRQV FDXVHV WKH VXEMHFW WR UHVSRQG DV LI YLVLRQ ZHUH DOWHUHG *ROGLDPRQG t 0DOSDVV :DJVWDII 6SDQRV f 6LPLODU ILQGLQJV KDYH EHHQ UHSRUWHG LQ WKH DXGLWRU\ PRGDOLW\ :LWK WKH H[FHSWLRQ RI D IHZ HDUO\ VWXGLHV 6WHUOLQJ t 0LOOHU (\VHQFN 6FKQHFN t %HUJPDQ f DXGLWRU\ H[SHULPHQWDWLRQ KDV JHQHUDOO\ GHDOW ZLWK GHDIQHVV RU SDUWLDO GHDIQHVV UDWKHU WKDQ ZLWK WKH LPSURYHPHQW RI KHDULQJ 3DWWLH 0DOPR %RDJ t 5DJLQVN\ %ODFN t :LJDQ 6XWFOLIIH *UDKDP &UDZIRUG 0DFGRQDOG t +LOJDUG -RQHV t 6SDQRV 6SDQRV -RQHV t 0DOIDUD +LOJDUG f $V ZLWK YLVLRQ DQG SDLQ WKH FRQVFLRXV H[SHULHQFH RI VRXQG VHHPV WR EH HOLPLQDWHG E\ K\SQRWLF VXJJHVWLRQ EXW REMHFWLYH HIIHFWV RI DXGLWRU\ VWLPXODWLRQ UHPDLQ 6XEMHFWV ZKR UHSRUW GHDIQHVV WR D VRXQG PD\ VKRZ SK\VLFDO VLJQV RI GLVFRPIRUW ZKHQ H[SRVHG WR D ORXG QRLVH DQG GHPRQVWUDWH VLJQV RI DXGLWRU\ LQWHUIHUHQFH LQ VSHHFK ZKLOH H[SRVHG WR GHOD\HG DXGLWRU\ IHHGEDFN RU WR GLFKRWLF OLVWHQLQJ VLWXDWLRQV 0DOPR %RDJ t 5DJLQVN\ 6XWFOLIIH %DUEHU t &DOYHUO\ D %RZHUV 6SDQRV -RQHV t 0DOIDUD f *UDKDP f UHSRUWV D VWXG\ GRQH E\ *UDKDP DQG 6FKZDUW] LQ WR VHSDUDWH WUXH VHQVRU\ FKDQJHV IURP YHUEDO UHVSRQVH ELDV SDWWHUQV OHDGLQJ WR UHSRUWV RI GHDIQHVV

PAGE 106

+LJK VXVFHSWLEOHV DQG ORZ VXVFHSWLEOH VLPXODWRUV ZHUH XVHG 6LJQLILFDQW DFWXDO GHFUHDVH LQ DXGLWRU\ VHQVLWLYLW\ ZDV IRXQG RQO\ LQ WKH KLJK K\SQRWL]DEOHV DOWKRXJK ERWK JURXSV UHSRUWHG VXEVWDQWLDO KHDULQJ LPSDLUPHQW &UDZIRUG 0DFGRQDOG t +LOJDUG f DQG +LOJDUG f UHSRUW WKDW LQ KLJK K\SQRWL]DEOHV DIWHU VXJJHVWLRQV RI GHDIQHVV RQO\ DERXW KDOI DUH DEOH WR JDLQ DFFHVV WR FRYHUW KHDULQJ E\ WKH KLGGHQ REVHUYHU WHFKQLTXH 7KHVH WZR VWXGLHV VXJJHVW WKDW LQ VRPH VXEMHFWV WKH DOWHUDWLRQ LQ SHUFHSWLRQ RFFXUV WKURXJK VRPH GHHSHU SURFHVV ZKLFK LV QRW UHYHUVLEOH E\ KLGGHQ REVHUYHU PHWKRGV RU H[SODLQDEOH E\ UHSRUWLQJ ELDV 6RPH KDYH DWWULEXWHG WKH H[SHULHQFH RI DOWHUHG SHUFHSWLRQ WR GHIHQVH PHFKDQLVPV ZKLFK SUHYHQW VWLPXOL IURP UHDFKLQJ FRQVFLRXVQHVV 0DOPR %RDJ t 5DJLQVN\ +LOJDUG f (ULFNVRQ f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

PAGE 107

SRRUO\ XQGHUVWRRG DQG FRQWURYHUVLDO %RZHUV f FRQFOXGHV XSRQ UHYLHZLQJ K\SQRWLFDOO\ LQGXFHG DXGLWRU\ DQG YLVXDO HIIHFWV WKDW K\SQRWLFDOO\ VXJJHVWHG SKHQRPHQD KDYH D VXEMHFWLYH UHDOLW\ ZKLFK FDQQRW EH H[SODLQHG DZD\ DV IDNLQJ :DJVWDII f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t %HUJPDQ *ROGEHUJ .OLPDQ t 5HLVHU f 7KUHH UHFHQW FRQWUROOHG VWXGLHV KDYH UHSRUWHG VWURQJO\ VLJQLILFDQW WHPSRUDU\ LPSURYHPHQWV RI YLVLRQ LQ P\RSLF VXEMHFWV JLYHQ VXJJHVWLRQV IRU UHOD[DWLRQ RI WKH H\H PXVFOHV DQG LPSURYHG YLVLRQ *UDKDP DQG /LHERZLW] 6KHHKDQ 6PLWK t )RUUHVW .D\ f *UDKDP t /LHERZLW] f XVHG QLQH KLJKO\ K\SQRWL]DEOH VXEMHFWV RI YDU\LQJ OHYHOV RI YLVXDO DFXLW\ ZKR DFKLHYHG WKH PD[LPXP REMHFWLYH VFRUH RQ WKH %DUEHU 6XVFHSWLELOLW\ 6FDOH %66f 6XEMHFWV ZHUH WHVWHG LQ WKUHH ZHHNO\ K\SQRVLV VHVVLRQV DQG H[DPLQHG E\ DQ RSWRPHWULVW EHIRUH DQG DIWHU WKH VWXG\ *UHDWHVW LPSURYHPHQWV ZHUH IRXQG LQ VXEMHFWV ZLWK SRRUHVW DFXLW\ DQG LQ WKH K\SQRWL]HG VWDWH RU FRQGLWLRQ :KHQ WKHVH

PAGE 108

VXEMHFWV ZHUH FRPSDUHG ZLWK RQH P\RSLF FRQWURO JURXS Q f JLYHQ ZDNLQJ VXJJHVWLRQV UHOD[DWLRQ DQG UHLQIRUFHPHQW DQG DQRWKHU Q f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t )RUUHVW f XVHG WZR JURXSV RI HLJKW VXEMHFWV ZLWK PRGHUDWH WR KLJK VXVFHSWLELOLW\ REMHFWLYH VFRUH RXW RI RQ WKH %66f PDWFKHG IRU VXVFHSWLELOLW\ DQG GHJUHH RI P\RSLD LQ DQ HIIRUW WR LPSURYH RQ WKH FRQFOXVLRQV ZKLFK *UDKDP DQG /LHERZLW] KDG UHDFKHG ZLWK D DQ XQPDWFKHG FRQWURO JURXS SUHGLFWDEO\ RI ORZHU VXVFHSWLELOLW\ WKDQ WKH

PAGE 109

WUHDWPHQW JURXS PLQXWHV RI VXJJHVWLRQV IRU UHOD[DWLRQ DQG LPSURYHPHQW LQ YLVLRQ ZDV FRPSDUHG ZLWK PLQXWHV RI OLVWHQLQJ WR PXVLF 0RQRFXODU YLVXDO WKUHVKROGV DQG DFFXUDF\ RQ D VLJQDO GHWHFWLRQ WHVW ZHUH PHDVXUHG EHIRUH DQG DIWHU 0HDQ VHQVLWLYLW\ LQ WKH VXJJHVWLRQ JURXS LQFUHDVHG ZKHUHDV WKDW LQ WKH PXVLF JURXS GHFUHDVHG VOLJKWO\ 7KH GHJUHH RI LPSURYHPHQW GLG QRW FRUUHODWH ZLWK HLWKHU VXJJHVWLELOLW\ RU UHIUDFWLYH HUURU LQ FRQWUDVW WR *UDKDP DQG /LHERZLW]n ILQGLQJV 7KH FULWHULRQ IRU UHSRUWLQJ LPSURYHPHQW LQ YLVLRQ GLG QRW FKDQJH GLIIHUHQWLDOO\ EHWZHHQ JURXSV LQGLFDWLQJ WKDW VXJJHVWLRQ GLG JHQXLQHO\ DIIHFW YLVXDO VHQVLWLYLW\ UDWKHU WKDQ WKH JURXQGV RQ ZKLFK D GHFLVLRQ WR UHSRUW D FKDQJH ZDV PDGH .D\ f FRPSDUHG K\SQRVLV XVLQJ VXJJHVWLRQ IRU LPSURYHG YLVLRQ K\SQRVLV ZLWKRXW DQ\ VXFK VXJJHVWLRQV QRQK\SQRWLF VXJJHVWLRQ UHOD[DWLRQ RQO\ DQG UHSHWLWLRQ FRQWURO (DFK JURXS KDG UDQGRPO\ DVVLJQHG VXEMHFWV XQPDWFKHG IRU GHJUHH RI P\RSLD DQG XQDVVHVVHG IRU VXVFHSWLELOLW\ 6LJQLILFDQW LPSURYHPHQW RYHU EDVHOLQH ZDV IRXQG RQO\ LQ WKH K\SQRVLV SOXV VXJJHVWLRQ JURXS ,PSURYHPHQWV ZHUH JUHDWHVW LQ VXEMHFWV ZLWK WKH SRRUHVW EDVHOLQH DFXLW\ $OWKRXJK DOO WKUHH RI WKHVH VWXGLHV FRQFOXGH WKDW K\SQRWLF VXJJHVWLRQ LPSURYHV YLVXDO DFXLW\ LQ P\RSHV RQO\ WKH 6KHHKDQ 6PLWK DQG )RUUHVW VWXG\ LV GHVLJQHG FDUHIXOO\ HQRXJK WR \LHOG UHOLDEOH FRQFOXVLRQV +RZHYHU WKH\ GLVFXVV WKH UROH RI UHOD[DWLRQ DQG VXJJHVWLRQ RQ VXVFHSWLEOH VXEMHFWV DYRLGLQJ LVVXHV DURXQG XVH RI WKH WHUP K\SQRVLV %RWK .D\ DQG

PAGE 110

*UDKDP DQG /LHERZLW] IDLO WR FRQWURO DGHTXDWHO\ IRU WKH UROH RI VXVFHSWLELOLW\ 7KH XVH RI VXFK VPDOO VXEMHFW JURXSV UHGXFHV WKH HIIHFWLYHQHVV RI .D\nV UDQGRPL]DWLRQ SURFHVV DV D FRQWURO IRU ERWK YLVXDO DFXLW\ DQG VXVFHSWLELOLW\ 7KXV VRPH HYLGHQFH RI WKH FDSDFLW\ RI VXJJHVWLRQV ZDNLQJ DQG IROORZLQJ D K\SQRWLF LQGXFWLRQf WR WHPSRUDULO\ DXJPHQW YLVXDO DFXLW\ LQ P\RSLF VXEMHFWV KDV DFFXPXODWHG EXW QR VWXG\ \HW KDV GHPRQVWUDWHG LPSURYHPHQW LQ VXEMHFWV ZLWK QRUPDO RU K\SHURSLF YLVLRQ RU LQ VXEMHFWV RI ORZ VXVFHSWLELOLW\ =DPDQVN\ 6KDUI t %ULJKWELOO f VKRZHG WKDW H[SHFWDQF\ IRU K\SQRVLV FDQ KDYH VLJQLILFDQW HIIHFWV LQ GHSUHVVLQJ EDVHOLQH SHUIRUPDQFH ZKLFK PD\ EH PLVWDNHQ IRU HIIHFWV DWWULEXWDEOH WR WKH K\SQRWLF VXJJHVWLRQV WKHPVHOYHV 1R LQYHVWLJDWLRQV RI WKH FDSDFLW\ RI K\SQRVLV WR LPSURYH DXGLWRU\ DFXLW\ KDYH EHHQ UHSRUWHG VLQFH D SRRUO\ FRQWUROOHG VWXG\ E\ 6FKQHFN t %HUJPDQ LQ 6P\WK t /RZ\ f KRZHYHU VKRZHG WKDW VFRUHV RQ WKH 6WDQIRUG +\SQRWLF 6XVFHSWLELOLW\ 6FDOH )RUP & ZHUH LQYHUVHO\ FRUUHODWHG ZLWK WKH VXEMHFWnV OHYHO RI SHUIRUPDQFH RQ DXGLWRU\ YLJLODQFH WDVNV LQGLFDWLQJ WKDW PRUH UHVSRQVLYH VXEMHFWV GHWHFW IHZHU H[WUDQHRXV HQYLURQPHQWDO VWLPXOL &RQFOXVLRQ 7KH VWXG\ RI K\SQRVLV DQG RI LWV UHODWLRQVKLS ZLWK XQFRQVFLRXV SURFHVVHV LV EHFRPLQJ FRQWLQXDOO\ PRUH H[DFW 7KH ILHOG KDV EHQHILWWHG UHFHQWO\ IURP D ZLGH UDQJH RI FKDOOHQJLQJ WKHRUHWLFDO LQSXW DOWKRXJK FXUUHQWO\ PDQ\ FRQWURYHUVLHV

PAGE 111

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

PAGE 112

&URVVRYHU 6WXGLHV +\SQRVLV DQG 6XEOLPLQDO 3HUFHSWLRQ 2QO\ IRXU VWXGLHV LQYROYLQJ WKH HIIHFWV RI K\SQRVLV RQ VXEOLPLQDO SHUFHSWLRQ ZHUH IRXQG LQ UHYLHZLQJ WKH OLWHUDWXUH WKURXJK 7KHVH ZLOO EH GLVFXVVHG LQGLYLGXDOO\ 6FKDUI DQG =DPDQVN\ f UHSRUWHG WZR H[SHULPHQWV GHVLJQHG WR LQYHVWLJDWH WKH HIIHFWLYHQHVV RI K\SQRWLF VXJJHVWLRQV LQ UHGXFLQJ YLVXDO ZRUGUHFRJQLWLRQ WKUHVKROGV WKH VKRUWHVW H[SRVXUH WLPH DW ZKLFK D ZRUG FDQ EH FRUUHFWO\ LGHQWLILHGf PHDVXUHG E\ DQ DVFHQGLQJ PHWKRG RI OLPLWV )LIWHHQ FRPPRQ ZRUGV ZHUH SUHVHQWHG WDFKLVWRVFRSLFDOO\ 6XEMHFWV ZHUH WROG WR UHSRUW ZKDW WKH\ VDZ DQG WR JXHVV LI XQVXUH 7KH\ ZHUH LQIRUPHG ZKHQ WKH\ DQVZHUHG FRUUHFWO\ 7ZHQW\IRXU KLJKO\ K\SQRWL]DEOH XQGHUJUDGXDWH VXEMHFWV ZHUH XVHG IRU HDFK H[SHULPHQW 7KH PHWKRG RI VXVFHSWLELOLW\ DVVHVVPHQW LV QRW GHVFULEHGf 7KH ILUVW H[SHULPHQW LQYROYHG VHVVLRQV K\SQRWLF VXJJHVWLRQ WR VHH WKH ZRUGV PRUH JXLFNO\ DQG HDVLO\f ZDNLQJ VXJJHVWLRQ LQIRUPDWLRQGHPRQVWUDWLRQ WKDW WKH WDFKLVWRVFRSH ZDV EHLQJ DGMXVWHG IRU HDVLHU ZRUG LGHQWLILFDWLRQf DQG FRQWURO ZDNLQJ QR VXJJHVWLRQVf 7UHDWPHQW FRQGLWLRQ VHJXHQFHV ZHUH FRXQWHUEDODQFHG 7KUHVKROGV ZHUH PHDVXUHG EHIRUH GXULQJ DQG DIWHU HDFK FRQGLWLRQ 3UDFWLFH WULDOV ZHUH JLYHQ WR UHGXFH WKH OHDUQLQJ FXUYH HIIHFW ,QLWLDO DQDO\VHV LQGLFDWHG WKDW ZRUG UHFRJQLWLRQ WKUHVKROG ZDV VLJQLILFDQWO\ UHGXFHG E\ K\SQRVLV FRPSDUHG ZLWK ZDNLQJ VXJJHVWLRQ DQG FRQWURO 7KH WKUHVKROG DOVR DSSHDUHG WR EH UHGXFHG LQ WKH ZDNLQJ VXJJHVWLRQ FRQGLWLRQ

PAGE 113

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t 6KHYULQ f SXEOLVKHG WKUHH VWXGLHV GHDOLQJ ZLWK WKRXJKW RUJDQL]DWLRQ LQ K\SQRVLV DQG WKH ZDNLQJ VWDWH XVLQJ VXEOLPLQDO YLVXDO WHFKQLJXHV GHYHORSHG E\ 6KHYULQ t /XERUVN\ f DV D PRGLILFDWLRQ RI WKH 3RHW]O SURFHGXUH 7KH VWXGLHV DGGUHVVHG WKH FRQWURYHUV\ RYHU ZKHWKHU K\SQRVLV LV LQGHHG D GLIIHUHQWLDEOH DOWHUHG VWDWH RI FRQVFLRXVQHVV XVLQJ K\SQRVLV WR LQYHVWLJDWH XQFRQVFLRXV WKRXJKW SURFHVVHV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK VXEOLPLQDO YLVXDO VWLPXOL 3RHW]O KDG FRUURERUDWHG )UHXGnV WKHRU\ WKDW DOWHUHG VWDWHV RI FRQVFLRXVQHVV ZHUH QHFHVVDU\ IRU WKH GHOD\HG HPHUJHQFH RI HDUOLHU IOHHWLQJ LPSUHVVLRQV FDOOLQJ DWWHQWLRQ WR WKH LPSRUWDQW UHJXODWRU\ UROH WKDW VWDWHV RI FRQVFLRXVQHVV SOD\ LQ GHWHUPLQLQJ WKH FRQWHQW DQG IRUP RI LGHDV )UHXGLDQ WKHRU\

PAGE 114

KROGV WKDW ZDNLQJ GLVFULPLQDWLRQV RI H[WHUQDO UHDOLW\ IROORZ WKH UXOHV RI VHFRQGDU\ SURFHVV ZKLOH UHJUHVVLYH HJR VWDWHV DQG DOWHUHG VWDWHV RI FRQVFLRXVQHVV JHQHUDOO\ \LHOG SULPDU\ SURFHVV WUDQVIRUPDWLRQV RI LQFLGHQWDO VWLPXOL 7ZR SLFWRJUDSKLF VWLPXOL HJ SHQ NQHHf ZHUH SUHVHQWHG WDFKLVWRVFRSLFDOO\ WR VXEMHFWV LQ HLWKHU ZDNLQJ RU K\SQRWLF VWDWH )ODVKHV RI EODQN OLJKW ZHUH SUHVHQWHG DV D FRQWURO )ROORZLQJ ERWK SUHVHQWDWLRQV VXEMHFWV ZHUH DVNHG WR GHVFULEH ZKDW WKH\ VDZ JHQHUDOO\ UHSRUWHG DV MXVW D IODVK RI OLJKWf WKHQ WR GHVFULEH WKH ILUVW LPDJH WKH\ KDG XSRQ FORVLQJ WKHLU H\HV DQG WR IUHH DVVRFLDWH IRU WZR PLQXWHV 7KLV ZDV GRQH ILUVW LQ WKH VDPH H[SHULPHQWDO VWDWH LQ ZKLFK WKH VWLPXOXV ZDV SUHVHQWHG DQG VXEVHTXHQWO\ LQ WKH RWKHU VWDWH ,Q WKH VHFRQG DQG WKLUG H[SHULPHQWV GRXEOH EOLQG FRQWURO VWXGLHVf GUHDP UHFDOO DQG WKHPDWLF SURMHFWLYH WHVWV ZHUH DOVR XVHG 5HVSRQVHV ZHUH DQDO\]HG IRU UHEXV DQG FODQJ DVVRFLDWLRQV FKDUDFWHULVWLF RI SULPDU\ SURFHVVHVf DQG IRU FRQFHSWXDO DVVRFLDWLRQV FKDUDFWHULVWLF RI VHFRQGDU\ SURFHVVHVf )RUW\ HDVLO\ K\SQRWL]DEOH VXEMHFWV SDVVLQJ DW OHDVW RI WKH 6WDQIRUG +\SQRWLF 6XVFHSWLELOLW\ 6FDOH )RUP $ LWHPVf ZHUH XVHG LQ WKH ILUVW VWXG\ LQ WKH VHFRQG DQG LQ WKH WKLUG 6XJJHVWLRQV SHUWDLQHG RQO\ WR GHHS UHOD[DWLRQ DQG WUDQFH 'HSWK HVWLPDWHV ZHUH REWDLQHG IURP K\SQRWL]HG VXEMHFWV DOO RI ZKRP ZHUH DW OHDVW LQ PHGLXP WUDQFHV 6HYHUDO FRQFOXVLRQV ZHUH UHSRUWHG 7KH HIIHFW RI K\SQRVLV XSRQ VXEOLPLQDO SHUFHSWLRQ ZDV IRXQG WR EH UDWLRQDO VHFRQGDU\

PAGE 115

SURFHVVf ZKHQ PHDVXUHG WKURXJK IUHHO\ HYRNHG LPDJHV LPPHGLDWHO\ RU LQ D VXEVHJXHQW ZDNLQJ VWDWH 7KH HIIHFW RI K\SQRVLV RQ VXEOLPLQDO SHUFHSWLRQ PHDVXUHG WKURXJK GUHDPV ZDV JHQHUDOO\ LUUDWLRQDO SULPDU\ SURFHVVf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f VWXGLHG WKH HIIHFW RI YLVXDO VXEOLPLQDO SV\FKRG\QDPLF DFWLYDWLRQ 63$f WUHDWPHQW RQ K\SQRWLF VXVFHSWLELOLW\ DQG UDSSRUW ZLWK WKH K\SQRWLVW ,Q D GRXEOHEOLQG GHVLJQ VXEMHFWV RI KLJK VFRUH f PHGLXP VFRUH f RU ORZ VFRUH f VXVFHSWLELOLW\ RQ WKH +DUYDUG *URXS 6FDOH RI +\SQRWLF 6XVFHSWLELOLW\ )RUP $ +*6+6U$f ZHUH DVVLJQHG WR WDFKLVWRVFRSLF SUHVHQWDWLRQV RI HLWKHU 0RPP\ DQG DUH RQH RU 3HRSOH DUH ZDONLQJ 7ZHOYH VXEMHFWV IURP HDFK VXVFHSWLELOLW\ OHYHO ZHUH DVVLJQHG WR HDFK JURXS 6XEMHFWV LQGLYLGXDOO\ UHFHLYHG HLJKW PV H[SRVXUHV DOWHUQDWHO\ SLFWXUHV DQG ZRUGVf RQ WZR RFFDVLRQV KRXUV DSDUW ZKLOH LQ D QRUPDO ZDNLQJ VWDWH )ROORZLQJ WKH VHFRQG WUHDWPHQW WKH\ ZHUH DGPLQLVWHUHG WKH 6WDQIRUG +\SQRWLF

PAGE 116

6XVFHSWLELOLW\ 6FDOH )RUP $ DQG ZKLOH K\SQRWL]HG JLYHQ WZR SURMHFWLYH PHDVXUHV RI UDSSRUW ZLWK WKH K\SQRWLVW DJH UHJUHVVLRQ WR JUDGH VFKRRO DQG D VXJJHVWHG GUHDP DERXW WKH K\SQRWLVW DQG WKH VXEMHFWf DQG RQH SURMHFWLYH PHDVXUH RI UDSSRUW ZLWK PRWKHU DJH UHJUHVVLRQ WR FKLOGKRRGf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t &DUOVRQ f WHVWHG IRU VXEOLPLQDO DXGLWRU\ SULPLQJ HIIHFWV LQ H[WUHPHO\ KLJKO\ K\SQRWL]DEOH VXEMHFWV PHDQ +*6+6$ VFRUH f DQG ORZ K\SQRWL]DEOH VLPXODWRUV PHDQ +*6+6$ VFRUH f JLYHQ VXJJHVWLRQ IRU K\SQRWLF GHDIQHVV $ WZRVWHS VFUHHQLQJ XVLQJ

PAGE 117

WKH +*6+6U$ DQG WKH 5HYLVHG 6WDQIRUG 3URILOH 6FDOHV RI +\SQRWLF 6XVFHSWLELOLW\ )RUP ,, ZDV XVHGf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f WKDQ HLWKHU K\SQRWLFDOO\ GHDI RU FRQWURO VXEMHFWV 7KHUH ZDV QR VLJQLILFDQW GLIIHUHQFH EHWZHHQ UHVSRQVHV RI K\SQRWLFDOO\ GHDI VXEMHFWV DQG FRQWUROV ZLWK UHVSHFW WR UHODWHG ZRUGV 7KHUH ZDV D QRQVLJQLILFDQW WUHQG IRU K\SQRWLFDOO\ GHDI VXEMHFWV WR DYRLG SKRQHWLFDOO\ UHODWHG ZRUGV 7KH LQYHVWLJDWRUV VXJJHVW WKDW WKH UHVSRQVH RI K\SQRWLFDOO\ GHDI VXEMHFWV PD\ EH H[SODLQHG LQ HLWKHU RI WZR

PAGE 118

ZD\V 6SDQRVn VWUDWHJLF HQDFWPHQW WKHRU\ 6SDQRV f ZRXOG VXJJHVW WKDW K\SQRWLF VXEMHFWV FRQVFLRXVO\ WULHG WR SOHDVH WKH LQYHVWLJDWRUV E\ UHVSRQGLQJ DV LI WKH\ ZHUH GHDI +LOJDUGnV QHRGLVVRFLDWLRQ WKHRU\ +LOJDUG f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

PAGE 119

LQYHVWLJDWHG WKH LQIOXHQFH RI YDU\LQJ OHYHOV RI K\SQRWLF VXVFHSWLELOLW\ XSRQ DQ\ VXEOLPLQDO HIIHFWV 3XUSRVH RI 3UHVHQW 5HVHDUFK 7KH DLP RI WKH SUHVHQW VWXG\ LV WR FRQWULEXWH WR RXU DELOLW\ WR XWLOL]H XQFRQVFLRXV SURFHVVHV LQ WKHUDS\ E\ LQLWLDWLQJ DQ LQYHVWLJDWLRQ RI WKH HIIHFWV RI K\SQRVLV RQ VXEMHFWVn DELOLW\ WR UHVSRQG WR VXEOLPLQDO DXGLWRU\ FXHV 7KH WHFKQLTXH HPSOR\HG LV RQH ZKLFK FRXOG EH DSSOLHG LQ WKH FOLQLFDO XVH RI VXEOLPLQDO WKHUDSHXWLF DXGLRWDSHV 2QH VSHFLILF DSSOLFDWLRQ DGGUHVVHG LV WKH TXHVWLRQ RI ZKHWKHU FOLHQWV ZKR UHFHLYH VXEOLPLQDO DXGLRWDSHV DV DQ DGMXQFW WR WKHUDS\ PLJKW EHQHILW PRUH IURP OLVWHQLQJ WR WKH WDSH IROORZLQJ D K\SQRWLF LQGXFWLRQ ZLWK DSSURSULDWH VXJJHVWLRQV IRU DWWXQHG OLVWHQLQJ DQG UHFHSWLYLW\ 6LQFH QR VWXG\ WKXV IDU KDV H[SORUHG WKH ZKROH UHDOP RI K\SQRWLF VXVFHSWLELOLW\ ZLWK UHVSHFW WR VXEOLPLQDO HIIHFWV DQG LQ IDFW LQIRUPDWLRQ DERXW WKH FRPSOHWH UDQJH LV LPSRUWDQW IRU FOLQLFDO SXUSRVHV VXEMHFWV ZLOO DOO EH SUHVHQWHG ZLWK D SRVLWLYH LQWURGXFWLRQ WR K\SQRVLV DQG WKHQ DVVHVVHG IRU VXVFHSWLELOLW\ $OO UDQJHV RI VXVFHSWLELOLW\ ZLOO EH LQFOXGHG LQ WKH VWXG\ ,Q RUGHU WR DYRLG IXUWKHU H[SHFWDQF\ HIIHFWV IRU K\SQRVLV VXEMHFWV ZLOO EH WROG WKDW K\SQRVLV ZLOO RFFXU RQ WKH ILUVW VHVVLRQ RQO\ DQG WKDW WKH VHFRQG VHVVLRQ ZLOO IRFXV RQ DVVHVVPHQW RI DXGLWRU\ VHQVLWLYLW\

PAGE 120

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

PAGE 121

ZLOO EH PHDVXUHG %HKDYLRUDO UHVSRQVHV RI DOO VXEMHFWV UHODWLYH WR WKH DXGLWRU\ FXHV ZLOO EH UHFRUGHG $ SRVWWHVW ZLOO SURYLGH ERWK GLUHFW DQG LQGLUHFW PHDVXUHV RI WKH UHFHSWLRQ RI DXGLWRU\ FXHV XQGHU ERWK FRQGLWLRQV DV FRPSDUHG ZLWK WKH FRQWURO JURXS ZKR KHDUG QR FXHV 7KH PDLQ HIIHFW RI K\SQRVLV XSRQ UHFHSWLRQ RI DXGLWRU\ FXHV ZLOO EH PHDVXUHG $OVR WKH VWXG\ ZLOO DGGUHVV WKH SRWHQWLDO UHODWLRQVKLS RI K\SQRWLF VXVFHSWLELOLW\ WR UHFHSWLRQ RI VXEOLPLQDO FXHV

PAGE 122

&+$37(5 0(7+2'6 6XEMHFWV 6XEMHFWV IRU WKH VWXG\ LQFOXGHG QRQKHDULQJLPSDLUHG QDWLYH(QJOLVK VSHDNLQJ VWXGHQWV DW WKH 8QLYHUVLW\ RI )ORULGD 6XEMHFWV ZHUH UHFUXLWHG DV YROXQWHHUV IURP WKH XQGHUJUDGXDWH VXEMHFW SRRO DQG IURP XQGHUJUDGXDWH SV\FKRORJ\ FODVVHV 6XEMHFWV ZHUH VFUHHQHG IRU SRWHQWLDO SV\FKRORJLFDO FRQWUDLQGLFDWLRQV WR WKH H[SHULPHQWDO XVH RI K\SQRVLV VXFK DV RQJRLQJ SV\FKRWKHUDSHXWLF WUHDWPHQW UHFHQW HPRWLRQDO WUDXPD VXLFLGDO LGHDWLRQ SDVW KLVWRU\ RI DWWHPSWHG VXLFLGH RU RI XVH RI DQWLSV\FKRWLF PHGLFDWLRQV H[WUHPH HPRWLRQDO ODELOLW\ RU GHSUHVVLRQ SULRU DGYHUVH UHDFWLRQV WR K\SQRVLV RU IHDU RI EHLQJ K\SQRWL]HGf 0DF+RYHF 8GROI f 6XEMHFWV ZHUH DOVR DVNHG ZKHWKHU WKH\ KDG QRUPDO KHDULQJ FDSDFLWLHV DQG LQGLYLGXDOV ZKR UHSRUWHG KHDULQJ LPSDLUPHQW RI DQ\ NLQG ZHUH QRW VHOHFWHG IRU WKH VWXG\ $JH RI VXEMHFWV UDQJHG IURP WR \HDUV ZLWK D PHDQ DJH RI \HDUV )LJXUH f 7KLUW\VHYHQ VXEMHFWV bf ZHUH PDOH DQG bf ZHUH IHPDOH )RU b VXEMHFWVf WKLV VWXG\ UHSUHVHQWHG WKHLU ILUVW H[SHULHQFH ZLWK K\SQRVLV

PAGE 123

IL*( LQ <(IL56 ),*85( +,672*5$0 $*( 2) 68%-(&76

PAGE 124

,QVWUXPHQWV +DUYDUG *URXS 6FDOH RI +\SQRWLF 6XVFHSWLELOLW\ )RUP $ +*6+6$ 7KLV VFDOH SXEOLVKHG E\ 6KRU DQG 2UQH LQ LV DQ DGDSWDWLRQ RI WKH 6WDQIRUG +\SQRWLF 6XVFHSWLELOLW\ 6FDOH)RUP $ 6+66$f :HLW]HQKRIIHU t +LOJDUG f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f ,QGXFWLRQ DQG WHVWLQJ WLPH ODVW DERXW PLQXWHV 7KH LWHPV DUH HVVHQWLDOO\ VLPLODU WR WKRVH RI WKH 6+66$ LQFOXGLQJ SRVWXUDO VZD\ H\H FORVXUH KDQG ORZHULQJ DUP LPPRELOL]DWLRQ ILQJHU ORFN DUP ULJLGLW\ KDQGV PRYLQJ WRJHWKHU YHUEDO LQKLELWLRQ YLVXDO KDOOXFLQDWLRQ H\H FDWDOHSV\ SRVWK\SQRWLF VXJJHVWLRQ DQG SRVWK\SQRWLF DPQHVLDf 6FRUHV UDQJH IURP WR ZLWK D PHDQ VFRUH RI LQGLFDWHG LQ WKH 6FRULQJ 0DQXDO 6FRUHV IURP WKH +*6+6$ ZHUH IRXQG E\ LWV RULJLQDWRUV WR EH FRPSDWLEOH ZLWK WKRVH REWDLQHG IURP WKH LQGLYLGXDOO\

PAGE 125

DGPLQLVWHUHG 6+66$ VFDOHV ZLWK D WRWDO UHOLDELOLW\ RI U %HQWOHU t +LOJDUG f 7HVWUHWHVW UHOLDELOLW\ RYHU SHULRGV UDQJLQJ IURP VHYHUDO GD\V WR VHYHUDO ZHHNV ZDV UHSRUWHG DW U 6KRU t 2UQH %HQWOHU t 5REHUWV f &RUUHODWLRQV EHWZHHQ WKH UHWURVSHFWLYH VHOI UHSRUW DQG LWHPE\LWHP REVHUYHUUHSRUW VFRULQJ RQ WKH +*6+6$ ZDV UHSRUWHG E\ WKH WHVW RULJLQDWRUV WR EH U 6KRU t 2UQH f DQG E\ %HQWOHU t +LOJDUG f WR EH U 7KH +*6+6$ KDV EHHQ IRXQG WR FRUUHODWH ZLWK VHOIUHSRUW PHDVXUHV RI K\SQRWLF GHSWK ZLWK D UDQJH RI U IRU WKH )LHOG ,QYHQWRU\ RI +\SQRWLF 'HSWK )LHOG f WR U 3HUU\ t /DXUHQFH f 1RUPV IRU WKH +*6+6$ IRU D YDULHW\ RI QDWLRQDO SRSXODWLRQV KDYH EHHQ GHYHORSHG DQG SXEOLVKHG /DPDV HW DO 8GROI f $ UDQJH RI PHDQ VFRUHV KDYH EHHQ UHSRUWHG LQFOXGLQJ &RH f %HQWOHU t 5REHUWV f .LUVFK HW DO f DQG 6KRU t 2UQH f 7KH VWDQGDUG FODVVLILFDWLRQ V\VWHP GHILQHV DV ORZ VXVFHSWLEOH DV PHGLXP DQG DV KLJK VXVFHSWLEOH 6KRU DQG 2UQH /HYLQH .XUW] DQG /DXWHU f 7KHVH DUH WKH GLYLVLRQV ZKLFK ZHUH XVHG IRU WKH FXUUHQW VWXG\ 7KH /RQJ 6WDQIRUG 6WDWH 6FDOH /666, 7KLV VFDOH SXEOLVKHG E\ 7DUW LQ SURYLGHV D VXEMHFWLYH HVWLPDWH RI GHSWK RI WUDQFH RQ D VFDOH IURP WR ZKHUH ]HUR LQGLFDWHV D VWDWH RI QRUPDOO\ DZDNH DOHUWQHVV

PAGE 126

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f 7KLV EULHI VFDOHG HVWLPDWH DOVR DOORZV WKH LQYHVWLJDWRU WR DVVHVV IOXFWXDWLRQV LQ GHSWK RI WUDQFH RYHU WKH FRXUVH RI D VHVVLRQ UDWKHU WKDQ SURYLGLQJ RQO\ D FRPSRXQGHG VXVFHSWLELOLW\ VFRUH ZLWK LWHPE\n LWHP SDVV?IDLO HYDOXDWLRQV VXFK DV WKH 66+6$ 66+6% DQG WKH +*6+6$ SURGXFH 8VLQJ WKH /666 IROORZLQJ HDFK LWHP RI WKH 6WDQIRUG 6FDOH RI +\SQRWLF 6XVFHSWLELOLW\ )RUP & 66+6&f 7DUW f IRXQG WKDW VXEMHFWV FRPPRQO\ H[SHULHQFHG HLJKW RU QLQH RXW RI D SRVVLEOH f VWDWH FKDQJHV RYHU WKH FRXUVH RI WKH WHVWLQJ DQG WKDW b VKRZHG D FKDQJH RI WZR RU PRUH SRLQWV IURP RQH LWHP WR WKH QH[W 7KH VFDOH KDV EHHQ HYDOXDWHG XVLQJ ERWK ,QVWDQW HVWLPDWHV DQG 'HOLEHUDWH HVWLPDWHV ,Q WKH ,QVWDQW YHUVLRQ RI WKH VFDOH WKH VXEMHFW LV DVNHG WR LPPHGLDWHO\ FDOO RXW WKH ILUVW QXPEHU WKDW FRPHV WR PLQG UHSUHVHQWLQJ KLVKHU GHSWK RI WUDQFH XSRQ KHDULQJ WKH FXH ZRUG VWDWH 6XEMHFWV DUH DVNHG WR GR WKLV ZLWKRXW DQ\ FRQVFLRXV HIIRUW RU WKRXJKW WUXVWLQJ WKDW WKH

PAGE 127

VXEFRQVFLRXV PLQG ZLOO NQRZ KRZ GHHS WKH WUDQFH LV 7KH 'HOLEHUDWH YHUVLRQ GLIIHUV LQ WKDW VXEMHFWV DUH DVNHG WR FRQVLGHU WKHLU HVWLPDWH RI WUDQFH GHSWK IRU D IHZ VHFRQGV EHIRUH UHVSRQGLQJ 7KH ,QVWDQW YHUVLRQ KDV FRQVLVWHQWO\ EHHQ IRXQG WR FRUUHODWH VOLJKWO\ PRUH VWURQJO\ WKDQ WKH 'HOLEHUDWH YHUVLRQ EXW QRW VLJQLILFDQWO\ VRf ZLWK RWKHU PHDVXUHV RI WUDQFH GHSWK 7DUW f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f DQG 6+66& EHKDYLRUDO VFRUHV U f DQG )LHOGnV ,QYHQWRU\ RI +\SQRWLF 'HSWK VFRUHV U f 3HUU\ DQG /DXUHQFH f UHSRUWHG YHU\ KLJK FRUUHODWLRQV RI D VLPLODU W\SH RI VHOI UHSRUWHG HVWLPDWH ZLWK WKH +*6+6$ U f $XGLWRU\ 7KUHVKROG (YDOXDWLRQ 8VLQD 6SHHFK $XGLRPHWU\ 0RVW GLDJQRVWLF DXGLRPHWHUV KDYH WKH FDSDELOLW\ RI GHOLYHULQJ ERWK SXUHWRQH DQG VSHHFK FXHV 3XUHWRQH

PAGE 128

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nV HDUV WR D IXOO UDQJH RI IUHTXHQF\ DQG LQWHQVLW\ RI VSHHFK DQG WRQH VWLPXOL 0DUWLQ 1HZE\ t 3RSHOND f 7KH VRXQGSUHVVXUH OHYHO UHTXLUHG WR PDNH D WRQH RI DQ\ IUHTXHQF\ EDUHO\ DXGLEOH WR WKH DYHUDJH QRUPDO HDU LV FDOOHG ]HURG% KHDULQJ OHYHO +/f RU WKH VWDQGDUG DXGLRPHWULF WKUHVKROG OHYHO $PHULFDQ 1DWLRQDO 6WDQGDUGV ,QVWLWXWH f $XGLRPHWHUV DUH FDOLEUDWHG WR QDWLRQDO DQG LQWHUQDWLRQDO VWDQGDUGV EDVHG RQ VWXGLHV RI QRUPDO KHDULQJ VXEMHFWV WKDW VSHFLI\ WKH VRXQGSUHVVXUH OHYHOV IRU ]HURG% KHDULQJ OHYHO DW HDFK IUHTXHQF\ 7KH KHDULQJ OHYHO UHTXLUHG WR UHDFK WKH WKUHVKROG RI DQ LQGLYLGXDO HDU WKURXJK FDOLEUDWHG HDUSKRQHV LV WKH KHDULQJ WKUHVKROG OHYHO +7/f IRU WKDW HDU $PHULFDQ 1DWLRQDO 6WDQGDUGV ,QVWLWXWH f 7KLV DLUFRQGXFWLRQ

PAGE 129

WKUHVKROG LV GHWHUPLQHG IRU D UDQJH RI WRQH IUHTXHQFLHV LQ HDFK HDU $XGLRPHWHUV FDQ SURGXFH VRXQGV DV ORZ TXLHWf DV G% EHORZ WKH ]HURG% UHIHUHQFH OHYHO 1HZE\ t 3RSHOND f 7KH PDMRULW\ RI VXEWKUHVKROG UHVHDUFK RQ DXGLWRU\ VXEOLPLQDO SHUFHSWLRQ LV GRQH ZLWK VWLPXOL SUHVHQWHG DW WR G% EHORZ ]HUR G% KHDULQJ OHYHO WR G%f 8UEDQ f $ WKUHVKROG YDOXH LV GHILQHG DV WKH UHDGLQJ RQ WKH DWWHQXDWRU GLDO ZKHQ WKH WRQH RU VSHHFK VWLPXOXV FDQ EH KHDUG b RI WKH WLPH $ KHDULQJ WKUHVKROG RI G% +/ LV VRPHZKDW EHWWHU WKDQ QRUPDO KHDULQJ VHQVLWLYLW\ EXW VWLOO ZLWKLQ WKH QRUPDO UDQJH 1HZE\ t 3RSHOND f 5HFHQW UHVHDUFK LQ DXGLWRU\ VXEOLPLQDOV IUHTXHQWO\ HPSOR\V VSHHFK VWLPXOL ZKLFK DUH ZLWKLQ WKH QRUPDO UDQJH RI DXGLWRU\ DFXLW\ PDVNHG E\ ZKLWH QRLVH PXVLF RU VRPH RWKHU VRXQG %RUJHDW HW DO 8UEDQ 6ZLQJOH f %RUJHDW HW DO KDYH VXFFHVVIXOO\ XVHG WKH DXGLRPHWHU WR GHOLYHU PDVNHG VXEOLPLQDO VWLPXOL WR VXEMHFWV LQ VHYHUDO H[SHULPHQWV %RUJHDW t *RXOHW %RUJHDW HW DO %RUJHDW HW DO f 7KH $PHULFDQ 1DWLRQDO 6WDQGDUG VSHFLILHV WKDW ]HURG% 657 KHDULQJ OHYHO IRU VSHHFK LV D VRXQGSUHVVXUH OHYHO RI URXQGHG WR f G% ZKHQ QRUPDO WKUHVKROG LV EDVHG RQ SHUFHQW FRUUHFW UHVSRQVHV WR WZRV\OODEOH ZRUGV $PHULFDQ 1DWLRQDO 6WDQGDUGV ,QVWLWXWH f 7KH OHYHO RI LQWHQVLW\ DW ZKLFK VLPSOH VSHHFK PXVW EH SUHVHQWHG LQ RUGHU IRU WKH VXEMHFW WR GHWHFW LWV PHUH SUHVHQFH RU DEVHQFH ZLWK SHUFHQW DFFXUDF\ LV FDOOHG WKH VSHHFK GHWHFWLRQ WKUHVKROG 6'7 2I

PAGE 130

JUHDWHU SHUWLQHQFH WR WKLV VWXG\ LV WKH ORZHVW LQWHQVLW\ OHYHO DW ZKLFK WKH LQGLYLGXDO FDQ XQGHUVWDQG DQG UHSHDW VLPSOH VSHHFK FXHV ZLWK SHUFHQW DFFXUDF\ 7KLV OHYHO LV FDOOHG WKH VSHHFK UHFRJQLWLRQ WKUHVKROG 657f 7KLV WHVW LV WKH SUHIHUUHG VSHHFK DXGLRORJ\ WHVW ,W LV YLHZHG DV WKH PRVW UHSUHVHQWDWLYH VLQJOH WHVW RI VSHHFK WKUHVKROG DQG LV WKH WKUHVKROG IRU VSHHFK E\ ZKLFK WKH ]HUR G% KHDULQJ OHYHO QRUP UHIHUUHG WR DERYH LV GHILQHG 0DUWLQ 1HZE\ t 3RSHOND f %RWK WKH 6'7 DQG WKH 657 DUH QRUPDOO\ HYDOXDWHG ZLWK WZR V\OODEOH ZRUG FXHV 7KHVH WZRV\OODEOH ZRUGV UHIHUUHG WR DV VSRQGHHV DUH SURQRXQFHG ZLWK HTXDO VWUHVV RQ ERWK V\OODEOHV 7KH PRVW FRPPRQO\ XVHG OLVWV RI VSRQGHHV DUH WKH &HQWUDO ,QVWLWXWH IRU WKH 'HDInV $XGLWRU\ 7HVW :O VKRZQ LQ $SSHQGL[ ,f ZKLFK FRQVLVWV RI OLVWV RI VSRQGDLF ZRUGV UHFRUGHG DW D FRQVWDQW OHYHO 0DUWLQ f $ GLJLWDO &' UHFRUGLQJ RI WKHVH VWDQGDUGL]HG OLVWV ZDV XVHG IRU WKH GHWHUPLQDWLRQ RI 6'7 DQG 657 LQ WKLV VWXG\ *UDGXDWHG DWWHQXDWLRQ DQG DXJPHQWDWLRQ RI VRXQG LQWHQVLW\ ZDV LQWURGXFHG RYHU WKH FRXUVH RI WKH WHVWLQJ WR DUULYH DW WKH VXEMHFWnV WKUHVKROG 7KH SHUFHQWDJH RI FRUUHFW UHVSRQVHV SORWWHG DV D IXQFWLRQ RI WKH LQWHQVLW\ OHYHO DW ZKLFK WKH VSHHFK WHVW PDWHULDO LV SUHVHQWHG LV WHUPHG WKH DUWLFXODWLRQ IXQFWLRQ 5HVSRQVHV WR WKH 6'7 DQG 657 WHVWLQJ ZHUH UHFRUGHG E\ DQ REVHUYHU RQ WKH IRUPV VKRZQ LQ $SSHQGL[ DQG WKH WKUHVKROGV ZHUH FRPSXWHG $QRWKHU PDMRU LPSHGLPHQW WR DQ LQGLYLGXDOnV DELOLW\ WR

PAGE 131

XQGHUVWDQG VSHHFK LV KLV RU KHU DELOLW\ WR GLVFHUQ EHWZHHQ UK\PLQJ RU SKRQHPLFDOO\ VLPLODU RQHV\OODEOH ZRUGV 7KH QRUPDO DUWLFXODWLRQ IXQFWLRQ IRU PRQRV\OODELF ZRUGV LV PXFK VKDOORZHU WKDQ WKDW IRU VSRQGDLF ZRUGV ZLWK WKH UHVXOW WKDW DW OHYHOV RI ORZHU LQWHQVLW\ D PXFK JUHDWHU SHUFHQWDJH RI PRQRV\OODELF ZRUGV WKDQ VSRQGDLF ZRUGV ZLOO EH PLVVHG 1HZE\ t 3RSHOND f 7KH ZRUG GLVFULPLQDWLRQ VFRUH :36f LV D PHDVXUH GHVLJQHG WR HYDOXDWH WKLV FDSDFLW\ WR GLVFULPLQDWH PRQRV\OODELF ZRUGV DW YDULRXV LQWHQVLW\ OHYHOV 7KH PRVW SRSXODU WHVW VWLPXOL IRU PDNLQJ WKLV HYDOXDWLRQ DUH D VHW RI IRXU ILIW\ZRUG SKRQHWLFDOO\ EDODQFHG OLVWV FDOOHG WKH $XGLWRU\ 7HVW : VKRZQ LQ $SSHQGL[ ,f 7KH OLVWV PD\ EH SUHVHQWHG DW YDU\LQJ LQWHQVLWLHV DQG XQGHU PDVNLQJ FRQGLWLRQV DQG WKH :'6 UHFRUGHG IRU HDFK OHYHO LV WKH SHUFHQWDJH RI FRUUHFW UHVSRQVHV DW WKDW OHYHO )RU WKH SXUSRVHV RI WKLV VWXG\ D GLJLWDO FRPSDFW GLVN UHFRUGLQJ RI WKH VWDQGDUGL]HG 7HVW : )RUP $ ZDV SUHVHQWHG WR VXEMHFWV DW WZR LQWHQVLW\ OHYHOV G% XQPDVNHG \LHOGLQJ WKH YDULDEOH :'6f DQG PDVNHG ZLWK ZKLWH QRLVH DW DQ DYHUDJH VLJQDOWRQRLVH 61f UDWLR RI G% \LHOGLQJ WKH YDULDEOH :'6f ZKLFK LV WKH PLQLPXP UDWLR UHFRPPHQGHG IRU VXEOLPLQDO WHVWLQJ E\ 6ZLQJOH )RU WKLV VHFRQG OHYHO D VLJQDO DW G% ZDV PDVNHG LQ QRLVH RI G% IROORZLQJ WKH PHWKRG DGRSWHG LQ UHVHDUFK E\ %RUJHDW HW DO f DQG 6ZLQJOH f 6XEMHFWV ZHUH DVNHG WR UHSHDW WKH ZRUGV WKH\ KHDUG DQG WR JXHVV LI WKH\ ZHUH XQVXUH 5HVSRQVHV ZHUH UHFRUGHG RQ WKH $XGLWRU\ 7HVWLQJ

PAGE 132

5HVSRQVH IRUPV $SSHQGL[ .f DQG HDFK VXEMHFWnV :'6 IRU WKH WZR OHYHOV ZDV FDOFXODWHG )RU WKH SXUSRVHV RI WKLV VWXG\ WKH DUWLFXODWLRQ IXQFWLRQ ZDV GHWHUPLQHG IRU ELODWHUDO KHDULQJ UDWKHU WKDQ IRU HDFK HDU LQGHSHQGHQWO\ DV LV GRQH LQ FOLQLFDO DXGLRORJ\ 7KH ELODWHUDO WKUHVKROGV DUH PRUH UHOHYDQW WR WKH SHUFHSWLRQ RI VXEOLPLQDO PHVVDJHV DV LQ IDFW WKH WKUHVKROG FXUYH IRU ELODWHUDO KHDULQJ LV QRUPDOO\ ORZHU PRUH VHQVLWLYHf WKDQ WKDW IRU HLWKHU HDU DORQH 1HZE\ t 3RSHOND f 'HWHUPLQDWLRQ RI VSHHFK WKUHVKROGV QRUPDOO\ WDNHV DSSUR[LPDWHO\ PLQXWHV $ YHUEDWLP WUDQVFULSW RI WKH VWDQGDUGL]HG GLJLWDOO\ UHFRUGHG WHVWLQJ SURFHGXUH XVHG IRU WKH VWXG\ LV GRFXPHQWHG LQ $SSHQGL[ $Q $XULFRQ $XGLRWRQH $ DXGLRPHWHU ZDV XVHG IRU WKH WHVWLQJ ,W ZDV FDOLEUDWHG EHIRUH GDWD FROOHFWLRQ EHJDQ DQG FKHFNHG DJDLQ DW WKH WLPH ZKHQ WKH GLJLWDO DXGLRPHWULF UHFRUGLQJV ZHUH UHPDGH 3RVW 6HVVLRQ 4XHVWLRQQDLUH 362 7KLV PHDVXUH LV D EULHI IRUP GHYLVHG E\ WKH H[DPLQHU WR UHFRUG VXEMHFWVn SHUFHSWLRQV RI WKH WHVWLQJ H[SHULHQFH ,WV LQVWUXFWLRQV LQIRUPHG VXEMHFWV WKDW WKH\ PLJKW KDYH EHHQ H[SRVHG WR EULHI VXEOLPLQDO PHVVDJHV DQG UHTXHVWHG WKDW WKH\ OHW WKHLU VXEFRQVFLRXV PLQGV DVVLVW WKHP LQ VHQVLQJ RU JXHVVLQJ ZKDW WKH PHVVDJHV PLJKW KDYH EHHQ 7KH TXHVWLRQQDLUH LQFOXGHG ERWK GLUHFW DQG LQGLUHFW IRUFHGFKRLFH TXHVWLRQV UHJDUGLQJ VXEOLPLQDO FXHV ZKLFK PLJKW KDYH EHHQ SHUFHLYHG

PAGE 133

FRQVFLRXVO\ RU XQFRQVFLRXVO\ ,W DOVR FRQWDLQHG VHOHFWHG RSHQ HQGHG TXHVWLRQV DERXW ZKDW VXEMHFWV UHPHPEHUHG IURP WKH OLVWHQLQJ H[SHULHQFH DQG WKH UHOHYDQW VHQVDWLRQV DQG WKRXJKWV WKH\ KDG GXULQJ WKH H[SHULPHQWDO WUHDWPHQW SURFHGXUH $ FRS\ RI WKH 364 LV LQFOXGHG LQ $SSHQGL[ %HKDYLRUDO 2EVHUYDWLRQ )RUP %2)f 7KLV EULHI IRUP ORFDWHG LQ $SSHQGL[ (f ZDV GHVLJQHG E\ WKH H[DPLQHU WR DOORZ WKH GDWD FROOHFWRU WR UHFRUG REMHFWLYH REVHUYDWLRQV RI HDFK VXEMHFW VSHFLILFDOO\ UHODWHG WR VXEOLPLQDOO\ VXJJHVWHG EHKDYLRUDO UHVSRQVHV 6WDWH HVWLPDWHV UHOHYDQW WR WKH /666 RU WR WKH FRPSDUDEOH FRQWURO SURFHGXUH $6f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

PAGE 134

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f ZHUH OLVWHG RQ WKH H[SHULPHQWDO VLJQXS VKHHW 9ROXQWHHUV ZHUH HQFRXUDJHG WR FRQWDFW WKH SULQFLSDO LQYHVWLJDWRU LI WKH\ KDG TXHVWLRQV DV WR WKHLU HOLJLELOLW\ UHOHYDQW WR DQ\ RI WKH FULWHULD 6XEMHFWV ZHUH LQIRUPHG WKDW WKHLU LQYROYHPHQW ZRXOG FRQVLVW RI Df DWWHQGDQFH DW DQ LQLWLDO RULHQWDWLRQ JURXS PHHWLQJ DERXW KRXUVf LQFOXGLQJ WKH FRPSOHWLRQ RI D VKRUW TXHVWLRQQDLUH DQG Ef DWWHQGDQFH DW D VHFRQG PLQXWHf LQGLYLGXDO VHVVLRQ GXULQJ ZKLFK WKH\ ZRXOG EH OLVWHQLQJ WR DXGLRWDSHV DQG UHVSRQGLQJ WR TXHVWLRQV DERXW WKHLU H[SHULHQFHV DQG LPSUHVVLRQV GXULQJ WKH VHVVLRQ 7KH\ ZHUH LQIRUPHG WKDW DOO YROXQWHHUV ZRXOG KHDU DQ LQWURGXFWRU\ GLVFXVVLRQ DERXW K\SQRVLV DQG KDYH D FKDQFH WR H[SHULHQFH K\SQRWLF WUDQFH 6XEMHFWV VLJQHG XS IRU D WLPH WR SDUWLFLSDWH LQ WKH ILUVW RULHQWDWLRQ PHHWLQJ WR EH KHOG LQ JURXSV RI DSSUR[LPDWHO\ SHRSOHf 7KH WLPH RI WKHLU SDUWLFLSDWLRQ LQ WKH

PAGE 135

VXEVHTXHQW LQGLYLGXDO VHVVLRQ WR EH KHOG LQGLYLGXDOO\f ZDV DUUDQJHG DW WKH HQG RI WKLV ILUVW PHHWLQJ )LUVW 6HVVLRQ ,QWURGXFWLRQ WR +\SQRVLV 6FUHHQLQJ ZLWK +*6+6$ $V WKH\ DUULYHG IRU WKH VHVVLRQ VXEMHFWV ZHUH JLYHQ D GDWD VKHHW SDFNHW DQG DVNHG WR FKRRVH D SHQ IURP D FRQWDLQHU ZKLFK KHOG HTXDO QXPEHUV RI JUHHQ DQG RWKHU FRORUHG SHQV 7KH UDWLR RI JUHHQRWKHU ZDV PDLQWDLQHG DW f 7KH PHHWLQJ EHJDQ ZLWK DQ LQWURGXFWLRQ WR WKH H[SHULPHQW SUHVHQWHG E\ WKH 3ULQFLSDO ,QYHVWLJDWRU 3,f DQG D EULHI LQIRUPDWLYH WDON DERXW K\SQRVLV IROORZHG E\ TXHVWLRQV DQG DQVZHUV $SSHQGL[ /f +\SQRWLF WUDQFH ZDV FKDUDFWHUL]HG DV D QDWXUDOO\ RFFXUULQJ SKHQRPHQRQ DQG FRPPRQ FRQFHUQV DQG PLVFRQFHSWLRQV DERXW K\SQRVLV ZHUH DGGUHVVHG 7KH 3UH,QWHUYHQWLRQ 4XHVWLRQQDLUH $SSHQGL[ %f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f ZHUH FRPSOHWHG

PAGE 136

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t 2UQH f 6XEMHFWV ZHUH DVNHG IRU D VWDWH HVWLPDWH DW WKH HQG RI WKH LQGXFWLRQ DQG GHHSHQLQJ FRPSRQHQW RI WKH +*6+6$ MXVW EHIRUH WKH DGPLQLVWUDWLRQ RI WKH EHKDYLRUDO UHVSRQVH LWHPV $JDLQ WKH\ ZHUH DVNHG IRU D VWDWH HVWLPDWH DIWHU LWHP WKH VXJJHVWHG GUHDP DV WKLV LV WKH SRLQW DW ZKLFK 7DUW UHSRUWV SHDN GHSWK RI WUDQFH LQ KLV VXEMHFW JURXS 7DUW f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

PAGE 137

HOHFWHG QRW WR UHWXUQ IRU VHVVLRQ WZR VR WKH VHOHFWLYH GHEULHILQJ VKRZQ LQ $SSHQGL[ *f ZDV QRW XVHG /DWHU RQH VXEMHFW IDLOHG VHYHUDO WLPHV WR NHHS KHU VHVVLRQ WZR DSSRLQWPHQW DQG GHFLGHG WKDW VKH ZDV WRR EXV\ WR FRPSOHWH WKH H[SHULPHQWf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f UHFRUGLQJ ZKLFK FRQWDLQHG PDVNHG VXEOLPLQDO VXJJHVWLRQV IRU LPSURYHG KHDULQJ SULRU WR DQG LQWHUVSHUVHG ZLWK WKH UHSHDW DXGLWRU\ DFXLW\ WHVWLQJ 7KLV UHFRUGLQJ DOVR FRQWDLQHG WKH IROORZLQJ PDVNHG VXEOLPLQDO PHVVDJHV LQWHUVSHUVHG WKURXJKRXW WKH ODVW KDOI &URVV \RXU OHJV &KRRVH WKH JUHHQ RQH /RRN EHKLQG \RX %LOO LV JXLOW\ RI VWHDOLQJ WKH PRQH\ ,WnV WKH $FH RI GLDPRQGV DQG 3KLO $EUDPV ZRXOG EH WKH EHVW PD\RU 7HQ

PAGE 138

FRPSRXQGV ZRUGV PLON PDQ URVH JDUGHQ OXQFK ER[ KRXVHKROG UDLQERZ KHDUW DWWDFN ERRN PDUN EHGVSUHDG ILVK KRRN DQG PRWRU ERDWf ZHUH UHSHDWHG DV VXEOLPLQDO SULPHV 6HH $SSHQGL[ IRU D WUDQVFULSW RI WKH UHFRUGLQJf 7KH PHWKRG RI PDVNLQJ IROORZHG WKH JXLGHOLQHV UHFRPPHQGHG E\ 6ZLQJOH f DQG E\ %RUJHDW HW DO f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f ZKLFK UHSUHVHQWHG HLWKHU WKH OHYHO RI DWWHQWLYHQHVV ZLWK ZKLFK WKH\ IHHO WKH\ DUH OLVWHQLQJ DW WKDW PRPHQW WHUPHG WKH $6 DWWHQWLYHQHVV VWDWHf RU WKHLU OHYHO RI UHOD[DWLRQ 5HVSRQVHV ZHUH UHFRUGHG E\ WKH GDWD FROOHFWRUV 7KLV SURFHGXUH ZDV GRQH DV D SDUDOOHO WR WKH /666 VWDWH HVWLPDWHV ZKLFK WKH K\SQRVLVSOXVVXEOLPLQDO JURXS ZDV DVNHG WR JLYH LQ DQ HIIRUW WR NHHS DOO WKUHH WUHDWPHQW UHFRUGLQJV DV VLPLODU DV SRVVLEOH DQG PDLQWDLQ WKH EOLQGLQJ RI WKH GDWD FROOHFWRUV 7KH VHFRQG JURXS ZDV D K\SQRVLVSOXVVXEOLPLQDO FRQGLWLRQ 7KH UHFRUGLQJ JLYHQ WR WKHVH VXEMHFWV ILUVW LQFOXGHG D K\SQRWLF LQGXFWLRQ ZLWK VXJJHVWLRQV IRU KHLJKWHQHG

PAGE 139

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n UHFRUGLQJV DQG FRQWDLQHG D UHSHDW RI WKH DXGLRPHWULF WKUHVKROG WHVWLQJ IROORZHG E\ D SHULRG RI ZKLWH QRLVH 7KUHH LQVWDQWDQHRXV HVWLPDWHV RI KRZ FORVHO\ VXEMHFWV ZHUH OLVWHQLQJ RU KRZ UHOD[HG WKH\ IHOW ZHUH LQFOXGHG DW YDULRXV SRLQWV LQ WKLV WDSH DV WKH\ ZHUH LQ WKH VXEOLPLQDORQO\ WDSH

PAGE 140

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f )RU WKH GHWHUPLQDWLRQ RI WKH 6SHHFK'HWHFWLRQ 7KUHVKROG 6'7f VXEMHFWV ZHUH JLYHQ D UHFRUGHG YRLFH FXH RU QRQHf IROORZHG E\ D WRXFK VLJQDO IURP D GDWD FROOHFWRU $W WKH VLJQDO WKH\ ZHUH DVNHG WR UHVSRQG
PAGE 141

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n FURVVLQJ EHKDYLRU DQG LQVWDQFHV RI WXUQLQJ WR ORRN EHKLQG ZHUH UHFRUGHG IRU HDFK SHULRG RQ WKH %HKDYLRUDO 2EVHUYDWLRQ )RUP %2)f $IWHU ERWK WDSHV ZHUH FRPSOHWHG WKH VXEMHFWV ILOOHG RXW WKH 3RVW6HVVLRQ 4XHVWLRQQDLUH 364f UHJDUGLQJ DQ\ PHVVDJHV WKH\ PD\ KDYH KHDUG RU VHQVDWLRQV ZKLFK WKH\ H[SHULHQFHG ZKLOH OLVWHQLQJ :ULWLQJ LPSOHPHQWV RI VHYHUDO GLIIHUHQW FRORUV ZHUH DYDLODEOH IRU WKH VXEMHFWVn XVH 7KH FRORU FKRLFH RI VXEMHFWV ZDV REVHUYHG DQG UHFRUGHG RQ WKH %2) :KHQ WKH TXHVWLRQQDLUHV ZHUH FRPSOHWH VXEMHFWV ZHUH RIIHUHG D FKRLFH RI D VPDOO UHZDUG HQFORVHG LQ \HOORZ ZKLWH RU JUHHQ

PAGE 142

SDSHU EDJV $JDLQ WKH VXEMHFWVn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:'6 DQG E:'6 ZLWK L:'6f JURXS [ WULDO LQWHUDFWLRQf PDLQ HIIHFW IRU WULDO SUDFWLFH HIIHFWVf +2 7KHUH ZLOO EH QR GLIIHUHQFH LQ DXGLWRU\ DFXLW\ WR VSHHFK VWLPXOL DV PHDVXUHG E\ L6'7 L657 :'6 DQG L:'6f EHWZHHQ WUHDWPHQW JURXSV PDLQ HIIHFW IRU JURXSf +2f§ 7KHUH ZLOO EH QR GLIIHUHQFH LQ EHKDYLRUDO UHVSRQVH WR VXEOLPLQDO VXJJHVWLRQV DV PHDVXUHG E\ QXPEHU ZKR FKRRVH JUHHQ ZULWLQJ LPSOHPHQW QXPEHU ZKR FKRRVH JUHHQ UHZDUG LQFLGHQFH DQG GXUDWLRQ RI OHJ

PAGE 143

FURVVLQJ DQG LQFLGHQFH RI ORRNLQJ EHKLQGf EHWZHHQ JURXSV PDLQ HIIHFW IRU JURXSf +2 f 7KHUH ZLOO EH QR GLIIHUHQFH LQ DFFXUDF\ RI GLUHFW RU LQGLUHFW LGHQWLILFDWLRQ RI VXEOLPLQDO PHVVDJHV RQ WKH 364 EHWZHHQ JURXSV VFRUHG E\ FRUUHFW UHVSRQVHV WR JXHVWLRQV $ % DQG PDLQ HIIHFW IRU JURXSf +2 7KHUH ZLOO EH QR GLIIHUHQFH LQ DFFXUDF\ RI LGHQWLILFDWLRQ RI VXEOLPLQDO FRPSRXQG ZRUG SULPHV EHWZHHQ JURXSV DV VKRZQ E\ UHVSRQVH WR TXHVWLRQ PDLQ HIIHFW IRU JURXSf +2 7KH YDULDEOH RI K\SQRWLF VXVFHSWLELOLW\ OHYHO DV PHDVXUHG E\ +*6+6$ VFRUH ZLOO KDYH QR UHODWLRQVKLS WR VXEMHFWV DXGLWRU\ DFXLW\ DV PHDVXUHG E\ L6'7 L657 :'6 RU L:'6 XQGHU DQ\ WUHDWPHQW FRQGLWLRQ PDLQ HIIHFW IRU VXVFHSWLELOLW\ RU VXVFHSWLELOLW\ [ JURXS LQWHUDFWLRQf +2f§ 7KH YDULDEOH RI K\SQRWLF VXVFHSWLELOLW\ OHYHO DV PHDVXUHG E\ +*6+6$ VFRUH ZLOO KDYH QR UHODWLRQVKLS WR VXEMHFWV UHVSRQVH WR VXEOLPLQDO EHKDYLRUDO

PAGE 144

VXJJHVWLRQV XQGHU DQ\ WUHDWPHQW FRQGLWLRQ PDLQ HIIHFW IRU VXVFHSWLELOLW\ RU VXVFHSWLELOLW\ [ JURXS LQWHUDFWLRQf +2 7KH YDULDEOH RI K\SQRWLF VXVFHSWLELOLW\ OHYHO DV PHDVXUHG E\ +*6+6$ VFRUH ZLOO KDYH QR UHODWLRQVKLS WR VXEMHFWVn DFFXUDF\ RI LGHQWLILFDWLRQ RI VXEOLPLQDO PHVVDJHV XQGHU DQ\ WUHDWPHQW FRQGLWLRQ PDLQ HIIHFW IRU VXVFHSWLELOLW\ RU VXVFHSWLELOLW\ [ JURXS LQWHUDFWLRQf +2 7KH YDULDEOH RI K\SQRWLF VXVFHSWLELOLW\ OHYHO DV PHDVXUHG E\ +*6+6U$ VFRUH ZLOO KDYH QR UHODWLRQVKLS WR VXEMHFWVn DFFXUDF\ RI LGHQWLILFDWLRQ RI VXEOLPLQDO FRPSRXQG ZRUG SULPHV LQ DQ\ WUHDWPHQW FRQGLWLRQ PDLQ HIIHFW IRU VXVFHSWLELOLW\ RU VXVFHSWLELOLW\ [ JURXS LQWHUDFWLRQf 6WXG\ 'HVLJQ DQG 3ODQQHG 6WDWLVWLFDO $QDO\VLV 6XVFHSWLELOLW\ WR VXJJHVWLRQ RU K\SQRWL]DELOLW\ KDV EHHQ FRUUHODWHG ZLWK SHUIRUPDQFH RQ UHODWHG VWXGLHV DV GHVFULEHG LQ &KDSWHU 7KHUHIRUH VXEMHFWV DUH UDQGRPL]HG LQWR WKUHH WUHDWPHQW FRQGLWLRQV VXEOLPLQDORQO\ K\SQRVLV SOXVVXEOLPLQDOV DQG D UHSHWLWLRQRQO\ FRQWURO JURXSf RQ WKH EDVLV RI WKH LQGHSHQGHQW YDULDEOH VXVFHSWLELOLW\ OHYHO

PAGE 145

+*6+6$ VFRUH ORZ PHGLXP DQG KLJK DV SUHYLRXVO\ GHVFULEHGf 7KH JURXSV ZHUH EDODQFHG RQ WKLV IDFWRU 6H[ KDV QRW EHHQ VKRZQ WR FRUUHODWH ZLWK GLIIHUHQFHV LQ VXVFHSWLELOLW\ RU UHVSRQVH WR VXEOLPLQDO FXHV DQG WKXV ZDV QRW D IDFWRU LQ WKH JURXS DVVLJQPHQW ,W LV DVVXPHG WKDW EDVHOLQH DXGLWRU\ DFXLW\ DV PHDVXUHG E\ EDVHOLQH 6'7 E6'7f EDVHOLQH 657 E657f DQG EDVHOLQH :'6 E:'6 DQG E:'6f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f WKH GDWD DQDO\VLV ZLOO EH GRQH WZLFH 7KH LQLWLDO DQDO\VLV ZLOO LQFOXGH DOO VXEMHFWV WR SURYLGH IRU WKH SRVVLELOLW\ WKDW WKH VXEMHFWV ZHUH LQ IDFW LQ WUDQFH IRU D VLJQLILFDQW SRUWLRQ RI WKH WDSH DQG GLG DW DQ\ UDWH UHFHLYH WKH VXEOLPLQDO FXHV 7KHQ WKH GDWD IURP WKH VXEMHFWV ZKR UHVSRQGHG ZLWK WKH H[WUHPHO\ ORZ /666 UDWLQJV ZLOO EH UHPRYHG IURP WKH K\SQRVLV SOXVVXEOLPLQDOV JURXS DQG WKH DQDO\VLV ZLOO EH UHSHDWHG

PAGE 146

XVLQJ D JURXS ZKLFK JLYHV D PRUH VDWLVIDFWRU\ LQGLFDWLRQ RI DFWXDOO\ EHLQJ LQ K\SQRWLF WUDQFH )RU WKH WHVWLQJ RI +2 ZKLFK UHODWHV WR ZLWKLQVXEMHFW FKDQJHV LQ DXGLWRU\ DFXLW\ IURP EDVHOLQH WR LQWHUYHQWLRQ FRQGLWLRQV WKH VWXG\ LV WUHDWHG DV D VSOLWSORW UHSHDWHG PHDVXUHV GHVLJQ ZLWK LQGHSHQGHQW WUHDWPHQW JURXSV 7KH DXGLWRU\ DFXLW\ WHVWLQJ RI 6SHHFK 'HWHFWLRQ 7KUHVKROG 6'7f 6SHHFK 5HFRJQLWLRQ 7KUHVKROG 657f DQG :RUG 'LVFULPLQDWLRQ 6FRUH :'6 DQG :'6f LV JLYHQ WZLFH WR DOO VXEMHFWV RQFH XQGHU EDVHOLQH FRQGLWLRQV \LHOGLQJ E6'7 E657 E:'6 DQG E:'6f DQG RQFH XQGHU WUHDWPHQW FRQGLWLRQV \LHOGLQJ L6'7 L657 :'6 DQG L:'6f $Q DQDO\VLV RI YDULDQFH $129$f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:'6 DQG L:'6 7KH GHVLJQ ZLOO EH D VLQJOH IDFWRU $1&29$ WKH VLQJOH IDFWRU EHLQJ WKH WKUHH WUHDWPHQW JURXSV $ PDLQ HIIHFW IRU JURXS ZRXOG VXJJHVW UHMHFWLRQ RI WKH QXOO K\SRWKHVLV

PAGE 147

)RU +2 ZKLFK PHDVXUHV EHKDYLRUDO UHVSRQVHV D NH\ FRQIRXQGLQJ IDFWRU PLJKW EH WKH VXEMHFWnV QDWXUDO WHQGHQF\ WR SHUIRUP WKRVH EHKDYLRUV LQGHSHQGHQW RI WKH WUHDWPHQW FRQGLWLRQ 7KHUHIRUH WKH FKRVHQ IRUP RI DQDO\VLV LV D RQHn ZD\ E\ WUHDWPHQWf DQDO\VLV RI YDULDQFH RI WKH VXEMHFWVn UHVSRQVH VFRUH RQ WKH ILYH EHKDYLRUDO YDULDEOHV L3(1 FKRRVLQJ D JUHHQ ZULWLQJ LPSOHPHQWf L5(:$5' FKRRVLQJ D JUHHQ UHZDUGf L/(*6 QXPEHU RI LQVWDQFHV RI FURVVLQJ WKH OHJVf L/(*60,1 GXUDWLRQ RI WLPH ZKHQ WKH OHJV UHPDLQ FURVVHGf DQG L/22. QXPEHU RI LQVWDQFHV RI ORRNLQJ EHKLQGf )RU L3(1 L/(*6 L/(*60,1 DQG L/22. WKH EDVHOLQH YDOXH RI WKHVH YDULDEOHV E3(1 E/(*6 E/(*60,1 DQG E/22.f ZDV XVHG DV WKH FRYDULDWH 1R EDVHOLQH YDOXH IRU FKRLFH RI UHZDUG ZDV REWDLQHG $ FRPSRVLWH YDULDEOH L%(+9727 PDGH XS RI WKH VXP RI HDFK VXEMHFWnV EHKDYLRUDO UHVSRQVHV GXULQJ LQWHUYHQWLRQ ZLOO DOVR EH DQDO\]HG LQ D RQHZD\ $1&29$ XVLQJ WKH FRPSRVLWH VXP RI WKH VXEMHFWnV EDVHOLQH EHKDYLRUDO UHVSRQVHV E%(+9727 DV WKH FRYDULDWH %HFDXVH VXEMHFWVn QDWXUDO OHYHO RI DXGLWRU\ DFXLW\ WR VSHHFK PD\ DOVR DFFRXQW IRU VRPH RI WKH YDULDQFH LQ EHWZHHQ JURXSV UHVSRQVH WR VXEOLPLQDO DXGLWRU\ VWLPXOL E657 LV XVHG D FRYDULDWH LQ WKH WHVWLQJ RI +2 DQG +2 7KLV PHDVXUH ZDV VHOHFWHG DV WKH UHSUHVHQWDWLYH FRYDULDWH WR EH XVHG IRU WKH DQDO\VLV EHFDXVH DXGLRORJLVWV FRQVLGHU LW WR EH WKH EHVW VLQJOH PHDVXUH RI DXGLWRU\ WKUHVKROG IRU VSHHFK 7KHVH K\SRWKHVHV UHODWH WR WKH HIIHFW RI WUHDWPHQW FRQGLWLRQ RQ

PAGE 148

EHKDYLRUDO DQG FRJQLWLYH UHVSRQVHV WR VXEOLPLQDO VXJJHVWLRQ $V IRU +2 DQG +2 WKH VWDWLVWLFDO GHVLJQ LV D VLQJOHn IDFWRU DQDO\VLV RI FRYDULDQFH $1&29$f WKH VLQJOH IDFWRU EHLQJ WKH WKUHH WUHDWPHQW JURXSV )RU +2 VXEMHFWnV QXPEHU RI FRUUHFW UHVSRQVHV WR TXHVWLRQV DQG RQ WKH 364 LV WKH RXWFRPH PHDVXUH $QG IRU +2 VXEMHFWVn VFRUH RQ TXHVWLRQ RI WKH 364 ZLOO EH FRPSDUHG DFURVV JURXSV 0DLQ HIIHFWV IRU JURXS RQ DQ\ RI WKHVH YDULDEOHV ZRXOG LQGLFDWH UHMHFWLRQ RI WKH UHOHYDQW QXOO K\SRWKHVLV 7KH UHPDLQLQJ K\SRWKHVHV LQYHVWLJDWH WKH UHODWLRQVKLS RI WKH VXEMHFWnV GHJUHH RI K\SQRWLF VXVFHSWLELOLW\ PHDVXUHG E\ WKH +*6+6$ VFRUHf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

PAGE 149

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

PAGE 150

&+$37(5 5(68/76 $VVXPSWLRQV DQG %DVHOLQH &RPSDULVRQ 7KH VDPSOH RI VXEMHFWV H[FHHGHG WKH VL]H SODQQHG LQ WKH RULJLQDO UHVHDUFK GHVLJQ LH VXEMHFWVf 7KH ILQDO VDPSOH LQFOXGHG VXEMHFWV ZKR ZHUH UDQGRPL]HG LQWR WKH K\SQRVLVDQGVXEOLPLQDOV +6f JURXS VXEMHFWV LQ WKH VXEOLPLQDOVRQO\ 6f JURXS DQG VXEMHFWV LQ WKH UHSHWLWLRQ RQO\ FRQWURO &f JURXS 7KHUH ZDV QR VLJQLILFDQW GLIIHUHQFH LQ WKH GLVWULEXWLRQ RI DJH ) > @ S f VH[ FKL >@ S f RU SUHYLRXV K\SQRWLF H[SHULHQFH FKL >@ S f DFURVV WKH WKUHH WUHDWPHQW FRQGLWLRQV 7HFKQLFDO GLIILFXOWLHV ZLWK WKH SURGXFWLRQ RI WKH GLJLWDO UHFRUGLQJV IRU DXGLWRU\ WHVWLQJ DQG VXEOLPLQDO SULPLQJ RFFXUUHG DW WKH RXWVHW RI WKH GDWD FROOHFWLRQ UHVXOWLQJ LQ WKH ORVV RI LQWHQGHG VXEMHFWV 7KH WHVW UHFRUGLQJV ZHUH SURGXFHG DW D SURIHVVLRQDO VRXQG VWXGLR EXW WHVW WRQHV IRU WKH WZR WHVW UHFRUGLQJV SXUFKDVHG IURP $XGLRWHF RI 6W /RXLVf XVHG DV WKH EDVLV RI WKH DXGLRPHWULF WHVWLQJ ZHUH DVVXPHG WR EH RI HTXLYDOHQW LQWHQVLW\ DQG DFWXDOO\ ZHUH QRW ZLWK WKH UHVXOW WKDW WKH WHVW VWLPXOL IURP WKH VHFRQG WZR DXGLWRU\ WHVWV DQG WKH VXEOLPLQDO SRUWLRQ RI WKH WDSH ZHUH VLJQLILFDQWO\ ORXGHU WKDQ LQWHQGHG 7KLV ZDV GLVFRYHUHG ZKLOH

PAGE 151

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t 2UQH f VXJJHVWLQJ WKDW JURXSV ZKR KDYH DQ LQWHUHVW LQ H[SORULQJ K\SQRVLV PD\ WHQG WR VFRUH KLJKHU WKDQ XQELDVHG JURXSV $GGLWLRQDOO\ SUHVHQWLQJ IDYRUDEOH LQIRUPDWLRQ DERXW K\SQRVLV DV ZDV GRQH LQ WKH LQWURGXFWLRQ WR VHVVLRQ RQH RI WKLV VWXG\ KDV EHHQ VKRZQ WR UDLVH VXEMHFWVn REMHFWLYH DQG VXEMHFWLYH UHVSRQVHV WR K\SQRWLF VXJJHVWLRQV &URQLQ 6SDQRV t %DUEHU %DWHV t %ULJKDP f &XUYHV IRU VDPSOH JURXS VFRUHV UHSRUWHG LQ QRUPDOL]LQJ WKH VFDOH JHQHUDOO\ KDYH EHHQ VNHZHG WRZDUG WKH XSSHU HQG 6KRU t 2UQH &RH f DV LV WKH FDVH IRU WKH FXUUHQW VDPSOH )LJXUH f )RU WKH VWXG\ VDPSOH WKH VWDQGDUG GLYLVLRQ RI +*6+6$ VFRUHV LQWR ORZ PHGLXP DQG KLJK VXVFHSWLELOLW\ JURXSV

PAGE 152

2 +*6+6IL 6&25( E\ 6XVFHSWLELOLW\ /HYHO ),*85( +*6+6$ %< 686&(37,%,/,7< /(9(/ 1 &$6(6f

PAGE 153

SURGXFHG RQO\ VXEMHFWV bf ZLWK VFRUHV LQ WKH ORZ UDQJH RI )LIW\ILYH VXEMHFWV bf KDG +*6+6U$ VFRUHV LQ WKH PHGLXP UDQJH RI DQG bf KDG VFRUHV LQ WKH KLJK UDQJH RI 7DEOH f 5DQGRPL]DWLRQ WKXV DOORFDWHG RQO\ ORZ VXVFHSWLELOLW\ UDQJH VXEMHFWV WR HDFK RI WKH WUHDWPHQW FRQGLWLRQV D FHOO VL]H VXIILFLHQWO\ VPDOO WKDW WKH YDOLGLW\ RI VWDWHPHQWV PDGH DERXW VXEMHFWV RI ORZ VXVFHSWLELOLW\ OHYHO PXVW EH YLHZHG ZLWK FDXWLRQ ZKHQ XVLQJ WKH SODQQHG VXVFHSWLELOLW\ OHYHOVf [ WUHDWPHQW FRQGLWLRQVf VWDWLVWLFDO GHVLJQ 2I WKHVH WKUHH LQ WKH 6 JURXS DQG LQ WKH +6 JURXSf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f 7KLV ZDV WKHQ FRQWUDVWHG ZLWK WKH KLJK VXVFHSWLELOLW\ OHYHO VXEMHFWV ZLWK +*6+6U$ VFRUHV IURP f XVLQJ D [ DQDO\WLFDO GHVLJQ 7KHUH ZDV QR VLJQLILFDQW GLIIHUHQFH EHWZHHQ WUHDWPHQW FRQGLWLRQV LQ WKH GLVWULEXWLRQ RI +*6+6U$ VFRUHV ) > @

PAGE 154

7$%/( 686&(37,%,/,7< /(9(/ %< 75($O0(-U *5283 1 FDVHVf 686&(37,%,/,7< /(9(/ 75($70(17 *5283 +6 6 &RQWURO 7RWDO /RZ 0HGLXP +LJK 7RWDO

PAGE 155

S f VXVFHSWLELOLW\ OHYHOV .UXVNDO:DOOLV + >@ S f RU FROODSVHG VXVFHSWLELOLW\ OHYHOV .UXVNDO :DOOLV + >@ S f %DVHOLQH FRPSDULVRQ RI WUHDWPHQW FRQGLWLRQV RQ WKH IRXU PHDVXUHV RI DXGLWRU\ DFXLW\ E6'7 E657 E:'6 DQG E:'6f UHYHDOHG QR VLJQLILFDQW GLIIHUHQFHV DPRQJ WKH WKUHH FRQGLWLRQV 7DEOH f 0HDQ E6'7 ZDV G% DQG PHDQ E657 ZDV G% 7KH HVWLPDWHG SRSXODWLRQ YDOXH IRU WKH 657 IURP WKH DXGLRPHWULF OLWHUDWXUH LV G% DQG WKH 6'7 LV EHORZ WKDW DOWKRXJK QR VWDQGDUGL]HG SDUDPHWHU KDV EHHQ HVWDEOLVKHG IRU LW 1HZE\ t 3RSHOND f 7KH GLIIHUHQFH EHWZHHQ 6'7 DQG 657 G%f REVHUYHG LQ WKLV VWXG\ LV FORVH WR WKH G% GLIIHUHQFH UHSRUWHG E\ %RUJHDW HW DO f
PAGE 156

7$%/( $1$/<6,6 2) %$6(/,1( $8',725< $&8,7< %< 75($70(17 *5283 1 FDVHVf $8',725< $&8,7< 9$5,$%/( 6$03/( 0($1 67$1'$5' '(9,$7,21 ) f ( EHQU E657 /:'6 E:'6

PAGE 157

WKH ZKLWH QRLVH KLVV DQG VWDWHG WKDW ZLWK FDUHIXO OLVWHQLQJ WKH\ FRXOG WHOO ZKHQ D FXH ZDV EHLQJ SUHVHQWHG EXW FRXOG QRW LGHQWLI\ DQ\ ZRUGV 7KXV LW DSSHDUV WKDW WKH PDVNHG VWLPXOL ZHUH GHOLYHUHG DW D OHYHO DSSURSULDWH IRU WKLV VDPSOH RI VXEMHFWV DOWKRXJK D VOLJKWO\ JUHDWHU GHJUHH RI PDVNLQJ PLJKW KDYH HOLPLQDWHG DOO DZDUHQHVV RI VSHHFK %DVHOLQH EHKDYLRUDO YDULDEOHV LH E3(1 E/22. E/(*6 E/(*60,1f ZHUH DOVR FRPSDUHG DFURVV WUHDWPHQW FRQGLWLRQV DQG QR VLJQLILFDQW GLIIHUHQFHV ZHUH IRXQG 7KH FDWHJRULFDO YDULDEOH FKRLFH RI JUHHQ SHQ E3(1f ZDV WHVWHG ZLWK D &KL VWDWLVWLF DQG WKH RWKHUV ZLWK D RQHZD\ $129$ 6DPSOH PHDQV DQG WHVW VWDWLVWLFV IRU WKHVH DQDO\VHV DUH IRXQG LQ 7DEOH )LQDOO\ WKH WZR /RQJ 6WDQIRUG 6WDWH 6FDOH HVWLPDWHV IRU HDFK VXEMHFW WDNHQ LQ WKH EDVHOLQH FRQGLWLRQ ZHUH DYHUDJHG DQG WKH GLVWULEXWLRQ RI WKLV DYHUDJH VXEMHFWLYH HVWLPDWH RI K\SQRWLF GHSWK ZDV FRPSDUHG DFURVV WUHDWPHQW FRQGLWLRQV 1R VLJQLILFDQW GLIIHUHQFH ZDV IRXQG ) > @ S f 7KH VDPSOH PHDQ IRU WKH ILUVW /666 HVWLPDWH ZDV DQG IRU WKH VHFRQG ZDV RQ D VFDOH IURP f LQGLFDWLQJ D PRGHUDWH OHYHO RI WUDQFH LQYROYHPHQW DQG D JHQHUDO SURJUHVVLRQ WRZDUG D VOLJKWO\ JUHDWHU GHSWK HVWLPDWH DW WKH VHFRQG SRLQW )RU WKH DYHUDJH RI WKH WZR VFRUHV WKH VDPSOH PHDQ ZDV VWDQGDUG GHYLDWLRQ f 7ZR VXEMHFWV UHSRUWHG WKDW WKH\ FRXOG QRW UHFDOO WKHLU VHFRQG GHSWK HVWLPDWH VR WKHLU VFRUHV ZHUH UHPRYHG IURP WKLV DQDO\VLV

PAGE 158

7$%/( $1$/<6,6 2) %$6(/,1( %(+$9,25$/ &5,7(5,$ %< 75($70(17 *5283 1 FDVHVf %$6(/,1( %(+$9,25$/ 9$5,$%/( 6$03/( 0($1 67$1'$5' '(9,$7,21 7(67 67$7,67,& 3 EUDQ &KL U @ E/%*6 ) >@ E/(((0,1 ) >@ E/2&. ) >@

PAGE 159

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f WR 7LPH LQWHUYHQWLRQf D PDLQ HIIHFW ZKLFK ZDV KLJKO\ VWDWLVWLFDOO\ VLJQLILFDQW ) > @ S f 3ODQQHG FRPSDULVRQV RI 7LPH E6'7f DQG 7LPH L6'7f GRQH RQ WKH WKUHH WUHDWPHQW FRQGLWLRQV LQGLYLGXDOO\ WR LGHQWLI\ WKH VRXUFH RI WKH GLIIHUHQFHV UHYHDOHG WKDW WKH GLIIHUHQFH LQ 6'7 IURP EDVHOLQH WR LQWHUYHQWLRQ UHDFKHG VLJQLILFDQFH RQO\ LQ WKH WZR WUHDWPHQW JURXSV K\SQRVLV SOXV VXEOLPLQDOV ) >@ ( f DQG VXEOLPLQDOV RQO\ ) H f )LJXUH UHSUHVHQWV WKH VDPSOH PHDQV IRU HDFK RI WKH WKUHH WUHDWPHQW FRQGLWLRQV DW 7LPH EDVHOLQHf DQG 7LPH GXULQJ LQWHUYHQWLRQf

PAGE 160

7$%/( 5(3($7(' 0($685(6 $1$/<6,6 2) $8',725< $&8,7< &+$1*(6 %< 75($70(17 *5283 1 FDVHVf $8',725< $&8,7< 9$5,$%/( 7(67 ())(&7 ) 8 627 %HWZHHQ 7UHDWPHQWV :LWKLQ 6XEMHFWV 77f ,QWHUDFWLRQ 657 %HWZHHQ 7UHDWPHQWV :LWKLQ 6XEMHFWV 77f ,QWHUDFWLRQ :'6 %HWZHHQ 7UHDWPHQWV :LWKLQ 6XEMHFWV 77f ,QWHUDFWLRQ 926 %HWZHHQ 7UHDWPHQWV :LWKLQ 6XEMHFWV 77f ,QWHUDFWLRQ

PAGE 161

7$%/( 0($16 $1' 67$1'$5' '(9,$7,216 2) $8',725< $&8,7< 9$5,$%/(6 $7 %$6(/,1( $1' '85,1* ,17(59(17,21 1 FDVHVf $8',725< $&8,7< 9$5,$%/( 6$03/( 0($1 67$1'$5' '(9,$7,21 E6'7 L627 E657 L657 IF:'6 L:'6 IF+'6 L:'6

PAGE 162

7KHUH ZDV DOVR D VLJQLILFDQW WUHDWPHQW [ WLPH LQWHUDFWLRQ FRUURERUDWLQJ WKDW WKH ZLWKLQ VXEMHFWV LPSURYHPHQW LQ VSHHFK GHWHFWLRQ ZDV QRW RI HTXDO PDJQLWXGH DFURVV DOO WKH WUHDWPHQW FRQGLWLRQV ) > @ S f 3ODQQHG FRQWUDVWV RI ZLWKLQ VXEMHFW FKDQJHV LQ HDFK RI WKH WZR LQWHUYHQWLRQ JURXSV +6 DQG 6f LQGLYLGXDOO\ DJDLQVW WKH FRQWURO JURXS &f UHYHDOHG WKDW RQO\ WKH +6 JURXS KDG D VLJQLILFDQWO\ JUHDWHU FKDQJH LQ 6'7 IURP EDVHOLQH WR LQWHUYHQWLRQ WKDQ GLG WKH & JURXS +6 YHUVXV & ) > @ S 6 YHUVXV & ) >@ S f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

PAGE 163

0HDQ 6'7 LQ G% +6 +6 6 6 & & VP +\SQRVLV6XEOLPLQDO +6f 6XEOLPLQDO 6f DQG &RQWURO &f *URXSV ),*85( 63((&+ '(7(&7,21 7+5(6+2/' 6'7f %$6(/,1( $1' '85,1* ,17(59(17,21 %< 75($70(17 *5283 7 UHD W PHULW %DVHO,QH

PAGE 164

+6 +6 6 6 & & +\SQRVLV6XEOLPLQDO +6f 6XEOLPLQDO 6f DQG &RQWURO &f *URXSV ),*85( 63((&+ 5(&2*1,7,21 7+5(6+2/' 657f %$6(/,1( $1' '85,1* ,17(59(17,21 %< 75($70(17 *5283

PAGE 165

LQ 657 IURP 7LPH WR 7LPH KRZHYHU 6HH 7DEOH fr 3ODQQHG FRQWUDVWV RI ZLWKLQ VXEMHFW FKDQJHV LQ HDFK RI WKH LQWHUYHQWLRQ JURXSV +6 DQG 6f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f +RZHYHU DQDO\VLV RI WKH ZLWKLQVXEMHFWV HIIHFW LQ HDFK WUHDWPHQW FRQGLWLRQ LQGHSHQGHQWO\ E\ SODQQHG FRPSDULVRQ UHYHDOHG D VLJQLILFDQW GLIIHUHQFH IURP EDVHOLQH WR LQWHUYHQWLRQ LQ WKH VXEOLPLQDOVRQO\ JURXS ) S f EXW QRW LQ WKH +6 RU & JURXSV 0HDQ :'6 IRU WKLV JURXS LQFUHDVHG IURP D EDVHOLQH RI ZRUGV WR D VFRUH RI ZRUGV DIWHU H[SRVXUH WR WKH VXEOLPLQDO FXHV $GGLWLRQDOO\ SODQQHG FRQWUDVWV RI ZLWKLQ VXEMHFW HIIHFWV LQ HDFK RI WKH WZR LQWHUYHQWLRQ JURXSV +6 DQG 6f YHUVXV WKH FRQWURO JURXS &f UHYHDOHG WKDW WKH FKDQJH LQ :'6 IURP EDVHOLQH WR LQWHUYHQWLRQ LQ WKH 6 JURXS ZDV VLJQLILFDQWO\ GLIIHUHQW IURP WKDW RI WKH & JURXS ) >@ S f ZKHUHDV WKDW LQ WKH +6 JURXS ZDV

PAGE 166

0HDQ 8'6 +\SQRVLV6XEOLPLQDO +6f 6XEOLPLQDO 6f DQG &RQWURO &f *URXSV ),*85( :25' ',6&5,0,1$7,21 6&25( $7 G% :'6f %$6(/,1( $1' '85,1* ,17(59(17,21 %< 75($70(17 *5283

PAGE 167

QRW ) > @ S f 7KHVH ILQGLQJV VXSSRUW WKH UHMHFWLRQ RI + ZLWK UHVSHFW WR :'6 GXH WR ZLWKLQ VXEMHFW FKDQJHV LQ WKH 6 JURXS :RUG 'LVFULPLQDWLRQ 6FRUH DW G% 6RXQG1RLVH ,Q WKH PDVNHG FRQGLWLRQ :'6f DJDLQ WKHUH ZDV D VOLJKW LQFUHDVH LQ PHDQ DELOLW\ WR GHWHFW PDVNHG ZRUGV DW 7LPH PHDQ ZRUGVf FRPSDUHG ZLWK 7LPH PHDQ ZRUGVf 7KLV LQFUHDVH LQ :'6 SURGXFHG D KLJKO\ VLJQLILFDQW PDLQ HIIHFW IRU WKH UHSHDWHG PHDVXUH ) >@ S f DQG ZDV FRPELQHG ZLWK D VLJQLILFDQW LQWHUDFWLRQ HIIHFW EHWZHHQ WUHDWPHQW FRQGLWLRQ DQG ZLWKLQ VXEMHFWV HIIHFWV ) >@ S f )LJXUH VKRZV WKH FKDQJHV LQ PHDQV IRU HDFK WUHDWPHQW FRQGLWLRQ IURP EDVHOLQH WR LQWHUYHQWLRQ %RWK WKH +6 DQG WKH 6 JURXSV VKRZHG VLJQLILFDQW LPSURYHPHQWV LQ DELOLW\ WR GHWHFW PDVNHG ZRUGV ZKLOH WKH & JURXS GLG QRW :LWKLQ VXEMHFW FKDQJHV LQ ERWK WKH +6 DQG 6 JURXSV ZKHQ DQDO\]HG DORQH LQ SODQQHG FRPSDULVRQV ZHUH VLJQLILFDQW +6 ) >@ ( 6 ) >@ S rf 3ODQQHG FRQWUDVWV RI ZLWKLQ VXEMHFW HIIHFWV LQ HDFK RI WKH LQWHUYHQWLRQ JURXSV +6 DQG 6f DJDLQVW WKH FRQWURO JURXS VKRZHG WKDW WKH FKDQJHV LQ :'6 IURP 7LPH WR 7LPH ZHUH VLJQLILFDQWO\ GLIIHUHQW IURP WKRVH LQ WKH & JURXS LQ ERWK FDVHV +6 YV & ) >@ S 6 YV & ) >@ S f 7KXV + LV UHMHFWHG ZLWK UHVSHFW WR :'6 ,Q OLJKW RI WKH LQWHQW RI WKH VWXG\ LW LV ZRUWK QRWLQJ WKDW WKH PHDQ

PAGE 168

+\SQRVLV6XEOLPLQDO +6f 6XEOLPLQDO 6f DQG &RQWURO &f *URXSV ),*85( :25' ',6&5,0,1$7,21 6&25( $7 G% 61 5$7,2 :'6f %$6(/,1( $1' '85,1* ,17(59(17,21 %< 75($70(17 *5283

PAGE 169

QXPEHU RI ZRUGV LGHQWLILHG XQGHU PDVNHG FRQGLWLRQV IRU DQ\ JURXS LV QR PRUH WKDQ ZRUGV LQGLFDWLQJ HVVHQWLDOO\ FRPSOHWH PDVNLQJ RI VSHHFK FRQWHQW +2 1R GLIIHUHQFH LQ DXGLWRU\ DFXLW\ WR VSHHFK VWLPXOL GXULQJ LQWHUYHQWLRQ EHWZHHQ WUHDWPHQW FRQGLWLRQV 7KLV K\SRWKHVLV FHQWHUHG RQ WKH EHWZHHQJURXSV WUHDWPHQW LPSDFW ZKLFK K\SQRVLV DQGRU VXEOLPLQDO PHVVDJHV PD\ KDYH KDG RQ WKH IRXU DXGLWRU\ PHDVXUHV ZKHQ FRPSDUHG ZLWK WKH FRQWURO JURXS JLYHQ WKDW WKH JURXSV KDG DOO EHHQ SURYHQ HTXLYDOHQW DW EDVHOLQH ,W ZDV WHVWHG XVLQJ D RQHZD\ DQDO\VLV RI FRYDULDQFH $1&29$f RQ HDFK DXGLWRU\ YDULDEOH 6'7 657 :'6 DQG :'6 f XVLQJ LWV EDVHOLQH YDOXH DV FRYDULDWH DQG ORRNLQJ IRU VLJQLILFDQW PDLQ HIIHFWV IRU WUHDWPHQW FRQGLWLRQ 1RQH ZHUH SUHVHQW DOWKRXJK WKH PHDQV IRU WKH +6 DQG WKH 6 JURXSV PRYHG LQ WKH SUHGLFWHG GLUHFWLRQ RQ DOO YDULDEOHV H[FHSW 657 7DEOH OLVWV WKH ) DQG S YDOXHV IRU HDFK RI WKH DQDO\VHV 3ODQQHG FRPSDULVRQV EHWZHHQ WKH +6 DQG & JURXS PHDQV DQG EHWZHHQ WKH 6 DQG & JURXS PHDQV GRQH RQ HDFK RI WKH IRXU YDULDEOHV UHYHDOHG RQO\ RQH UHSRUWDEOH GLIIHUHQFH 2Q WKH YDULDEOH :'6 WKH JURXS JLYHQ VXEOLPLQDO PHVVDJHV 6f VFRUHG VLJQLILFDQWO\ KLJKHU WKDQ FRQWUROV W >@ S f 5HIHU DJDLQ WR )LJXUHV DQG IRU D JUDSKLF GLVSOD\ RI WKH FRPSDUDWLYH WUHDWPHQW FRQGLWLRQ PHDQV +2 WKHUHIRUH VXJJHVWLQJ WKDW WKH K\SQRWLF DQG VXEOLPLQDO WUHDWPHQWV GLG QRW DIIHFW WKH DXGLWRU\ DFXLW\ YDULDEOHV ZKHQ FRPSDUHG JURXSZLVH DJDLQVW WKH FRQWURO ZDV QRW

PAGE 170

7$%/( $1$/<6,6 2) %(7:((1 75($0(:7 ())(&76 21 $8',725< $&8,7< 9$5,$%/(6 1 FDVHVf $8',7&5< $&8,7< 9$5,$%/( &'9$5,$7( ) >@ ( 627 E6'7 657 E657 :'6 /:'6 L:'6 /:'6

PAGE 171

UHMHFWHG IRU 6'7 657 RU :'6 +RZHYHU IRU :'6 D VLJQLILFDQW LPSURYHPHQW LQ WKH VXEOLPLQDOVRQO\ JURXS PHDQ YHUVXV WKH FRQWURO JURXS PHDQ ZDV IRXQG +2 1R GLIIHUHQFH LQ EHKDYLRUDO UHVSRQVH WR VXEOLPLQDO VXJJHVWLRQV EHWZHHQ WUHDWPHQW FRQGLWLRQV )LYH PDLQ YDULDEOHV ZHUH XVHG WR PHDVXUH EHKDYLRUDO UHVSRQVH $IILUPDWLYH UHVSRQVHV RQ FKRLFH RI JUHHQ ZULWLQJ LPSOHPHQW L3(1f DQG FKRLFH RI JUHHQ UHZDUG L5(:$5'f ZHUH FRGHG DV <(612 YDULDEOHV 7KH RWKHU WKUHH YDULDEOHV ZHUH LQFLGHQFH DQG GXUDWLRQ RI OHJ FURVVLQJ L/(*6 DQG L/(*60,1f DQG LQFLGHQFH RI ORRNLQJ EHKLQG L/22.f :KHQHYHU EDVHOLQH PHDVXUHV ZHUH DYDLODEOH E3(1 E/(*6 E/(*60,1 DQG E/22.f WKH\ ZHUH XVHG LQ WKH DQDO\VLV LQ RUGHU WR FRQWURO IRU VXEMHFWVn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f ZKLFK KDV DQ DSSUR[LPDWH ODUJHVDPSOH FKLVTXDUHG GLVWULEXWLRQ ZDV XVHG DV WKH WHVW VWDWLVWLF IRU WKH VLJQLILFDQFH RI WKH SUHGLFWRUV )LJXUH

PAGE 172

7$%/( $1$/<6,6 2) %(7:((1 75($0+: ())(&76 21 %(+$9,25$/ 9$5,$%/(6 1 f %(+$9,&5$/ 9$5,$%/( *29$5,$7( VLJQLILFDQFHf 7(67 67$7,67,& ( L3(1 E3(1 H f 9I >@ 5(+$5' 1RQH 9e >@ /(26 E/(*6 H f ) > @ LO(*60(1 E/(*+1 S f ) > @ ,2&. E822. ( f ) > @

PAGE 173

7$%/( 0($16 $1' 67$1'$5' '(9,$7,216 2) %(+$9,25$/ 9$5,$%/(6 $7 7,0( 2) 'I7(59+:7&1 1 FDVHVf %(+$9,25$/ 9$5,$%/( 6$03/( 0($1 67$1'$5' '(9,$7,21 3(1 5(:$5' L7I.6 L/(&6071 +22.

PAGE 174

3HUFHQW 8KR &KRVH IL *UHHQ 3HQ +6 6 & .??O 7 UHD W PHQ 5DWH ILGMf %DVHOLQH 5DWH +\SQRVLV6XEOLPLQDO +6f 6XEOLPLQDO 6f DQG &RQWURO &f *URXSV ),*85( *5((1 3(1 6(/(&7,21 %$6(/,1( $1' 3267,17(59(17,21 %< 75($70(17 &21',7,21

PAGE 175

LOOXVWUDWHV WKH EDVHOLQH DQG LQWHUYHQWLRQ YDOXHV IRU VHOHFWLRQ RI JUHHQ SHQ FRORU 7KH LQFUHDVH LQ FKRLFH RI JUHHQ SHQ DPRQJ DOO JURXSV LV LQ SDUW GXH WR WKH IDFW WKDW LQ VHVVLRQ RQH VXEMHFWV FKRVH IURP D EDVNHW RI SHQV ZLWK HJXDO FRORU GLVWULEXWLRQ FRORUVf ZKHUHDV LQ VHVVLRQ WZR WKH\ ZHUH VHHQ LQGLYLGXDOO\ DQG JLYHQ RQO\ WZR SHQV WR FKRRVH IURP )XUWKHUPRUH D QXPEHU RI VXEMHFWV ZHUH REVHUYHG WR XVH D EOXH SHQ ZKLFK WKH\ KDG EURXJKW ZLWK WKHP LQ VHVVLRQ RQH UDWKHU WKDQ WKH VHOHFWHG SHQ )RU WKLV UHDVRQ PRVW SUREDEO\ WKH FRYDULDWH E3(1 ZDV QRW VLJQLILFDQW LQ WKH UHJUHVVLRQ DQDO\VLV :I >@ S f ,Q IDFW WKH PRGHO &KL ZDV LPSURYHG E\ UHPRYLQJ E3(1 DV D FRYDULDWH &KL >@ ZLWK E3(1 S &KL >@ ZLWKRXW E3(1 S f 7KH HIIHFW RI WUHDWPHQW JURXS RQ WKH FKRLFH RI SHQ LQ VHVVLRQ WZR GLG QRW JXLWH UHDFK VLJQLILFDQFH :I >@ S f %RWK RI WKH JURXSV ZKLFK UHFHLYHG WKH VXEOLPLQDO FXHV FKRVH WKH JUHHQ SHQ PRUH RIWHQ WKDQ FRQWUROV +6 PHDQ 6 PHDQ & PHDQ f &RQWUROV FKRVH JUHHQ VOLJKWO\ OHVV RIWHQ WKDQ FKDQFH +RZHYHU QHLWKHU RI WKHVH VSHFLILF FRPSDULVRQV ZDV VWDWLVWLFDOO\ VLJQLILFDQW LQ WKH RYHUDOO UHJUHVVLRQ PRGHO +6 YV & ,I >@ S 6 YV & :I >@ S f &KRLFH RI UHZDUG FRORU $QRWKHU FDWHJRULFDO YDULDEOH L5(:$5' ZDV DQDO\]HG XVLQJ ORJLVWLF UHJUHVVLRQ ZLWKRXW D FRYDULDWH DV LW KDG QR EDVHOLQH YDOXH 0RGHO &KL >@ S f $V VHHQ LQ )LJXUH

PAGE 176

3HUFHQW 8KR &KRVH *UHHQ 5HXDUG +6 6 & +\SQRVLV6XEOLPLQDO +6f 6XEOLPLQD 6f DQG &RQWURO &f *URXSV ),*85( *5((1 5(:$5' 6(/(&7,21 3267,17(59(17,21 %< 75($70(17 &21',7,21

PAGE 177

VXEMHFWV LQ WKH +6 JURXS DQG WKH 6 JURXS FKRVH JUHHQ UHZDUGV VLJQLILFDQWO\ PRUH RIWHQ WKDQ FKDQFH b LQ WKH +6 JURXS DQG b LQ WKH 6 JURXSf ZKHUHDV PHPEHUV RI WKH FRQWURO JURXS FKRVH JUHHQ OHVV RIWHQ WKDQ FKDQFH bf 7UHDWPHQW ZDV IRXQG WR EH D VLJQLILFDQW SUHGLFWRU RI FKRLFH RI UHZDUG FRORU :M >@ S f &RPSDULVRQV RI WKH +6 JURXS ZLWK WKH & JURXS DQG RI WKH 6 JURXS ZLWK WKH & JURXS LQGLYLGXDOO\ LQ WKH UHJUHVVLRQ PRGHO GLG QRW UHDFK VWDWLVWLFDO VLJQLILFDQFH +6 YV & :M >@ S 6 YV & :I >@ S f /HD FURVVLQJ EHKDYLRU $ RQHZD\ E\ WUHDWPHQW JURXSf $1&29$ ZDV GRQH RQ WKH YDULDEOHV L/(*6 QXPEHU RI OHJ FURVVHVf DQG L/(*60,1 GXUDWLRQ RI WLPH ZLWK OHJV FURVVHGf 7KH FRYDULDWHV ZHUH KLJKO\ VLJQLILFDQW LQ ERWK FDVHV $ VLJQLILFDQW PDLQ HIIHFW IRU WUHDWPHQW ZDV SUHVHQW RQ L/(*6 ) >@ S f EXW QRW RQ L/(*60,1 ) > @ S f ,Q D UHDQDO\VLV RI WKH YDULDEOH L/(*6 ZLWKRXW WKH FRYDULDWH WR WHVW IRU KRPRJHQHLW\ RI FRYDULDWH HIIHFW WKH PDLQ HIIHFW IRU WUHDWPHQW ZDV OHVV VLJQLILFDQW ) > ` S f UHIOHFWLQJ WKH VOLJKWO\ KLJKHU E/(*6 PHDQ IRU WKH FRQWURO JURXS 7KH EDVHOLQH DQG LQWHUYHQWLRQ PHDQV IRU HDFK WUHDWPHQW JURXS DUH LOOXVWUDWHG LQ )LJXUH IRU QXPEHU RI OHJ FURVVHV /(*6f DQG )LJXUH IRU GXUDWLRQ RI FURVVHG OHJV /(*60,1f 3ODQQHG FRPSDULVRQV RI HDFK RI WKH WZR LQWHUYHQWLRQ JURXSV +6 DQG 6f LQGLYLGXDOO\ ZLWK WKH & JURXS RQ WKH

PAGE 178

0HDQ 1XPEHU RO /HJ &URVVHV SHU 6XEMHF W +6 6 & 0HDQ IOGMf %DVHOLQH 0HDQ +\SQRVLV6XEOLPLQDO +6f 6XEOLPLQDO 6f DQG &RQWURO &f *URXSV ),*85( ,167$1&(6 2) /(* &5266,1* 6(/,1( $1' '85,1* ,17(59(1 %< 75($70(17 *5283 59(17,21 $'-867(' )25 %$6(

PAGE 179

0HDQ 1XPEHU RI 0LQXWHV RO &URVVHG /HJV SHU 6XEMHFW +6 6 & 6. c7UHDWPHQW 0HDQ IGMf %DVHOLQH 0HDQ +\SQRVLV6XEOLPLQDO +6f 6XEOLPLQDO 6f DQG &RQWURO &f *URXSV ),*85( '85$7,21 2) &5266(' /(*6 %$6(/,1( $1' '85,1* ,17(59(17,21 %< 75($70(17 *5283 >,17(59(17,21 $'-867(' )25 %$6(/,1(@

PAGE 180

YDULDEOH L/(*6 LQGLFDWHG WKDW WKH 6 JURXS PHDQ GLIIHUHG VLJQLILFDQWO\ IURP WKDW RI WKH FRQWURO W >@ S f DOWKRXJK WKH +6 JURXS GLG QRW 7KLV HIIHFW UHPDLQHG UREXVW WR WHVWV IRU KRPRJHQHLW\ RI WKH FRYDULDQFH VXSSRUWLQJ UHMHFWLRQ RI +2 ZLWK UHVSHFW WR L/(*6 3ODQQHG FRPSDULVRQV +6 YV & DQG 6 YV &f RQ WKH YDULDEOH L/(*60,1 GLG QRW \LHOG VLJQLILFDQW ILQGLQJV /RRNLQJ EHKLQG $ RQHZD\ E\ WUHDWPHQW JURXSf $1&29$ ZDV GRQH RQ L/22. QXPEHU RI WLPHV WKH VXEMHFW ORRNHG EHKLQGf 7KH EDVHOLQH FRYDULDWH ZDV KLJKO\ VLJQLILFDQW 7KH PDLQ HIIHFW IRU WUHDWPHQW GLG QRW UHDFK VLJQLILFDQFH ) > @ S f $V VKRZQ LQ )LJXUH VXEMHFWV LQ DOO WKUHH JURXSV ORRNHG EHKLQG PRUH IUHTXHQWO\ GXULQJ WKH LQWHUYHQWLRQ WKDQ GXULQJ WKH EDVHOLQH FRQGLWLRQ PRVW SUREDEO\ EHFDXVH WKH WUHDWPHQW LQWHUYHQWLRQ ZDV JLYHQ GXULQJ D VLOHQW SHULRG RI ZKLWH QRLVH ZKLFK PD\ KDYH VHHPHG ORQJ ZKHUHDV WKH EDVHOLQH YDOXH ZDV WDNHQ GXULQJ WKH DFWLYH DXGLWRU\ WHVWLQJ 3ODQQHG FRPSDULVRQV RI WKH +6 JURXS DQG 6 JURXS PHDQ LQGLYLGXDOO\ ZLWK WKH & JURXS VKRZHG D VLJQLILFDQW GLIIHUHQFH EHWZHHQ WKH 6 JURXS PHDQ f DQG FRQWURO PHDQ f W >@ S f EXW QRW EHWZHHQ WKH +6 JURXS DQG FRQWUROV 7KLV ILQGLQJ UHPDLQHG UREXVW ZKHQ WKH FRYDULDWH ZDV UHPRYHG IURP WKH DQDO\VLV DV D WHVW IRU KRPRJHQHLW\ RI FRYDULDWH HIIHFW DQG VXSSRUWV WKH UHMHFWLRQ RI +2 IRU WKLV YDULDEOH ,Q VXP WKHUHIRUH + ZDV UHMHFWHG GXH WR VLJQLILFDQW

PAGE 181

0HDQ 1XPEHU R 7LPHV 6XEMHFWV /RRNHG %HKLQG 7 UHDWPHQW 0HDQ ILGff 3?A?W %DVHOLQH 0HDQ +\SQRVLV6XEOLPLQDO +6f 6XEOLPLQDO 6f DQG &RQWURO &f *URXSV ),*85( ,167$1&(6 2) /22.,1* %(+,1' $7 %$6(/,1( $1' '85,1* ,17(59(17,21 %< 75($70(17 *5283 >,17(59(17,21 $'-867(' )25 %$6(/,1(@

PAGE 182

GLIIHUHQFHV EHWZHHQ WUHDWPHQW JURXSV RQ YDULDEOHV L5(:$5' L/(*6 DQG L/22. ,W ZDV QRW UHMHFWHG ZLWK UHVSHFW WR L3(1 RU L/(*60,1 +2 1R GLIIHUHQFH EHWZHHQ WUHDWPHQW JURXSV LQ DFFXUDF\ RI GLUHFW RU LQGLUHFW LGHQWLILFDWLRQ RI VXEOLPLQDO PHVVDJHV RQ WKH 3RVW6HVVLRQ 4XHVWLRQQDLUH 36 7KLV K\SRWKHVLV ZDV WHVWHG XVLQJ WKUHH W\SHV RI TXHVWLRQV WZR LQGLUHFW DQG RQH GLUHFW IROORZLQJ 5HLQJROG t 0HULNOHnV f GLUHFW YV LQGLUHFW SDUDGLJP IRU GHPRQVWUDWLQJ XQFRQVFLRXV SHUFHSWLRQ ) DQG S YDOXHV IRU $1&29$V E\ WUHDWPHQW FRQGLWLRQ RI DOO RI WKH 364 TXHVWLRQV DUH VKRZQ LQ 7DEOH 0HDQV DQG VWDQGDUG GHYLDWLRQV IROORZ LQ 7DEOH 36 364 TXHVWLRQV DQG WHVWHG VXEMHFWVn UHVSRQVH WR LQGLUHFW TXHVWLRQV DERXW LGHQWLILFDWLRQ RI WKUHH RI WKH VXEOLPLQDO PHVVDJHV HJ WKH\ ZHUH DVNHG WR VHOHFW D FDUG IURP DPRQJ WKUHH FKRLFHV DIWHU XQNQRZLQJO\ EHLQJ VXEOLPLQDOO\ FXHG IRU WKH $FH RI 'LDPRQGVf 7KHUHIRUH VXEMHFWVn WRWDO VFRUH IRU WKHVH WKUHH TXHVWLRQV ZDV FRPSXWHG LQ D YDULDEOH QDPHG 364 ZKLFK UHSUHVHQWV WKH PRVW LQGLUHFW PHDVXUH RI FRJQLWLYH UHVSRQVH WR VXEOLPLQDO FXHV $Q $1&29$ ZDV GRQH RQ WKHVH VFRUHV DFURVV WKH WKUHH WUHDWPHQW FRQGLWLRQV XVLQJ EDVHOLQH 657 DV D FRYDULDWH WR FRQWURO IRU SRVVLEOH LQGLYLGXDO GLIIHUHQFHV LQ VSHHFK UHFRJQLWLRQ 7KH WKUHH VXEMHFWV ZKR FRUUHFWO\ QDPHG RQH RI WKH VXEOLPLQDO PHVVDJHV ZKLFK ZDV XVHG ZHUH HOLPLQDWHG IURP WKLV DQDO\VLV RQ WKH

PAGE 183

7$%/( $1$/<6,6 2) %(7:((1 75($70(17 ())(&76 21 32676(66,21 48(67,211$,5( 364f &2*1,7,9( 1 &$6(6f 48(67,211$,5( 364f 9$5,$%/( &'9$5,$7( E657f 6,*1,),&$1&( 7(67 67$7,67,& 16 ( f ) >@ ( 16 ( f ) >@ 16 % f ) >@ 16 ( f ) >@ 16 ( f ) >@ 16 ( f ) >@ 364727$/ 16 ( f ) >@

PAGE 184

7$%/( 0($16 $1' 6($1'$5' '(9,$7,216 2) 32676(66,21 48(67,211$,5( 364f 9$5,$%/(6 1 FDVHVf 3RU 364$ 364% DQG 364$% 1 FDVHVf 32676(66,21 48(67,211$,5( 364f 9$5,$%/( 6$03/( 0($1 67$1'$5' '(9,$7,21 364 364 364 364 364 364$% 364$ 364% 364 364'27$/

PAGE 185

SUHPLVH WKDW FRQVFLRXV KHDULQJ DQG LGHQWLILFDWLRQ ZDV JRLQJ RQ LQ WKHLU FDVHV KHQFH WKH PHVVDJHV ZHUH QRW WUXO\ VXEOLPLQDO 7KH FRYDULDWH ZDV QRW D VLJQLILFDQW VRXUFH RI YDULDQFH ) >@ S f QRU ZDV WKHUH D VLJQLILFDQW PDLQ HIIHFW IRU WUHDWPHQW FRQGLWLRQ ) > @ S f 3ODQQHG FRPSDULVRQV RI WKH PHDQ RI JURXS +6 ZLWK & DQG RI 6 ZLWK & UHYHDOHG QR VLJQLILFDQW GLIIHUHQFHV HLWKHU ,Q JHQHUDO VXEMHFWV IURP DOO WKUHH FRQGLWLRQV LQFOXGLQJ WKRVH ZKR KHDUG WKH VXEOLPLQDO VXJJHVWLRQV DQG WKRVH ZKR GLG QRWf DYHUDJHG DSSUR[LPDWHO\ FRUUHFW UHVSRQVH RXW RI WKH LQGLUHFW TXHVWLRQV )LJXUH GLVSOD\V WKH PHDQV IRU WKH YDULDEOH 364 IRU HDFK WUHDWPHQW FRQGLWLRQ +2 WKHUHIRUH LV QRW UHMHFWHG ZLWK UHVSHFW WR WKLV ILUVW W\SH RI LQGLUHFW PHDVXUH RI FRJQLWLYH UHVSRQVH WR VXEOLPLQDO VXJJHVWLRQ 36$% 364 TXHVWLRQV $ DQG % HYDOXDWHG VXEMHFWVn DZDUHQHVV RI DQG DELOLW\ WR LGHQWLI\ VXEOLPLQDO PHVVDJHV ZKHQ DVNHG GLUHFWO\ EXW RSHQHQGHGO\ DERXW WKHP LH 'R \RX WKLQN WKHUH ZHUH VXEOLPLQDO PHVVDJHV RQ WKH UHFRUGLQJ \RX KHDUG" 'LG \RX KHDU DQ\ VXEOLPLQDO PHVVDJHV" DQG ,I VR ZKDW ZHUH WKH\"f (DFK VXEMHFWnV UHVSRQVHV WR TXHVWLRQV $ DQG % ZHUH FRPELQHG LQWR RQH YDULDEOH 364$%f PHDVXULQJ WKH RYHUDOO DIILUPDWLYH UHVSRQVH WR GLUHFW TXHVWLRQV DERXW VXEOLPLQDOV $Q $1&29$ ZDV GRQH DFURVV WKH WUHDWPHQW FRQGLWLRQV %DVHOLQH 657 ZDV XVHG DV

PAGE 186

&RQ W UR 6XE LPLQD@ +\SQRVLV 6XEOLPLQDO 7UHDWPHQW &RQGLWLRQ ),*85( 5(63216( 72 ,1',5(&7 48(67,216 364 t f $%287 68%/,0,1$/ 0(66$*(6 %< 75($70(17 &21',7,21

PAGE 187

D FRYDULDWH EXW ZDV QRW VLJQLILFDQW ) > @ 3 f $ VWURQJ PDLQ HIIHFW IRU WUHDWPHQW JURXS ZDV SUHVHQW ) > @ S f 3ODQQHG FRPSDULVRQV EHWZHHQ PHDQV RI WKH +6 DQG & JURXSV DQG EHWZHHQ PHDQV RI WKH 6 DQG WKH & JURXSV ZHUH ERWK KLJKO\ VLJQLILFDQW +6 YV & W >@ S 6 YV & W >@ S f 5HIHUHQFH WR WKH VXEJURXS PHDQV LQGLFDWHV WKDW VXEMHFWV LQ ERWK WKH +6 PHDQ f DQG WKH 6 FRQGLWLRQV PHDQ f ZHUH PRUH OLNHO\ WKDQ FRQWUROV PHDQ f WR UHVSRQG WKDW VXEOLPLQDOV ZHUH SUHVHQW ZKHQ TXHVWLRQHG GLUHFWO\ )LJXUH DQG JUDSKLFDOO\ LOOXVWUDWH WKH GLIIHUHQFHV LQ UHVSRQVHV WR 364$ DQG % UHVSHFWLYHO\ DFURVV WUHDWPHQW FRQGLWLRQV 7KLV GLVSDULW\ XQGRXEWHGO\ WR D JUHDW GHJUHH UHIOHFWV WKH IDFW WKDW WKH FRUUHFW UHVSRQVH IRU WKH +6 DQG 6 JURXSV LV @ S f EXW LW LQYLWHV VSHFXODWLRQ DV WR LWV FDXVH 2Q WKH TXHVWLRQ DV WR ZKHWKHU VXEOLPLQDO PHVVDJHV ZHUH DFWXDOO\ KHDUG

PAGE 188

3HUFHQW RW 7UHDWPHQW *URXS 5HVSRQGLQJ
PAGE 189

3HUFHQW RI 7UHDWPHQW *URXS 5HVSRQGLQJ 66 &RQWURO rf (666D6XKO LPLQDO ( +\SQRVLV 6XEO LPLQDO 7 UHD W PHQ W &RQGLRQ ),*85( 3(5&(17 5(6321',1* 7+$7 7+(< +($5' 68%/,0,1$/ &8(6 %< 75($70(17 &21',7,21

PAGE 190

364%f QRQH RI WKH & JURXS UHVSRQGHG DIILUPDWLYHO\ +RZHYHU b RI WKH +6 DQG b RI WKH 6 JURXS DJDLQ DQ LQWHUHVWLQJ EXW QRW VWDWLVWLFDOO\ VLJQLILFDQW FRQWUDVWf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b WKHVH ZHUH QRW FRQVFLRXVO\ LGHQWLILDEOH LQ WHUPV RI FRQWHQW 6WDWLVWLFDOO\ WKHQ +2 LV UHMHFWHG ZLWK UHVSHFW WR WKH GLUHFW PHDVXUH RI DZDUHQHVV RI VXEOLPLQDO FXHV 3UDFWLFDOO\ VSHDNLQJ KRZHYHU WKLV UHVSRQVH LQGLFDWHV WKDW IRU VRPH PHPEHUV RI WKH +6 DQG 6 JURXSV VRPH VSHHFKOLNH VRXQG ZDV LQWHUPLWWHQWO\ GHWHFWDEOH DQG WKDW WKHUH ZDV D WHQGHQF\ WR

PAGE 191

DWWULEXWH WKHVH VRXQGV WR SRVVLEOH VXEOLPLQDO FXHV ZKHQ WKH TXHVWLRQ ZDV SRVHG 36 364 TXHVWLRQ OLVWHG D VHULHV RI VWDWHPHQWV DQG DVNHG VXEMHFWV WR FKRRVH ZKLFK PLJKW KDYH EHHQ SUHVHQWHG VXEOLPLQDOO\ 7KLV LV DQRWKHU IRUP RI LQGLUHFW LQTXLU\ 7KH VXEMHFWV ZKR LGHQWLILHG VXEOLPLQDO FXHV GLUHFWO\ ZHUH H[FOXGHG IURP WKLV DQDO\VLV 0HDQ VFRUHV RQ WKLV TXHVWLRQ IRU HDFK WUHDWPHQW FRQGLWLRQ DUH VKRZQ LQ )LJXUH 2Q $1&29$ XVLQJ EDVHOLQH 657 DV FRYDULDWH D VLJQLILFDQW WUHDWPHQW HIIHFW HPHUJHG ) > @ S f 7KH FRYDULDWH GLG QRW KDYH D VLJQLILFDQW HIIHFW 3ODQQHG FRPSDULVRQV EHWZHHQ WKH +6 JURXS PHDQ f DQG WKH & JURXS PHDQ f DQG EHWZHHQ WKH 6 JURXS PHDQ f DQG & JURXS LQGLFDWHG WKDW VPDOO EXW VLJQLILFDQW LPSURYHPHQWV LQ LGHQWLI\LQJ VXEOLPLQDO FXHV ZHUH SUHVHQW LQ ERWK RI WKH WUHDWPHQW FRQGLWLRQV UHODWLYH WR WKH FRQWURO +6 YV & W >@ S 6 YV & W >@ S f 7KXV +2 LV UHMHFWHG ZLWK UHVSHFW WR WKH DELOLW\ WR LGHQWLI\ VXEOLPLQDO FXHV SUHVHQWHG IURP D OLVW RI SRWHQWLDO FXHV 362727$/ )LQDOO\ WKH RYHUDOO VFRUHV RQ WKH 3RVW6HVVLRQ 4XHVWLRQQDLUH 0D[LPXP f ZHUH DQDO\]HG XVLQJ WKH VDPH $1&29$ IRUPDW 6XEMHFWV GLUHFWO\ LGHQWLI\LQJ VXEOLPLQDO FXHV ZHUH DJDLQ H[FOXGHGf $V WKH PRUH VSHFLILF DQDO\VHV DERYH LQGLFDWHG WKH EDVHOLQH VSHHFK UHFRJQLWLRQ WKUHVKROG OHYHO

PAGE 192

2 0HDQ 6FRUH RQ 6XEOLPLQDO &XH /LVW 0IL; 3266 f &RQL URO 6XELPLQDO ; +\SQRVLV 6XEOLPLQDO 7UHDWPHQW &RQGLWLRQ ),*85( ,'(17,),&$7,21 2) 68%/,0,1$/ &8(6 )520 $ /,67 364f %< 75($70(17 &21',7,21

PAGE 193

E657f ZDV QRW D VLJQLILFDQW IDFWRU LQ WKH YDULDQFH 2Q WKHVH RYHUDOO VFRUHV FDOOHG 364727$/f WKHUH ZDV QR VLJQLILFDQW WUHDWPHQW HIIHFW SUHVHQW ) > @ S f +RZHYHU SODQQHG FRPSDULVRQV EHWZHHQ WKH +6 DQG & JURXS PHDQV DQG WKH 6 DQG & JURXS PHDQV UHYHDOHG D VLJQLILFDQW GLIIHUHQFH EHWZHHQ WKH VXEOLPLQDOV JURXS DQG FRQWUROV W @ S f EXW QRW EHWZHHQ WKH K\SQRVLVVXEOLPLQDOV JURXS DQG FRQWUROV ([DPLQDWLRQ RI WKH VXEJURXS PHDQV LQGLFDWHG WKDW WKH VXEOLPLQDOV JURXS PHDQ f VFRUHG VLJQLILFDQWO\ EHWWHU WKDQ FRQWUROV PHDQ f RYHUDOO LQ LGHQWLI\LQJ VXEOLPLQDO FXHV W >@ S f EXW WKH K\SQRVLVVXEOLPLQDOV JURXS PHDQ f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f IURP D FKRLFH RI WZR LH UDLQERZ 25 UDLQFRDWf 7HQ SULPHV ZHUH SUHVHQWHG DQG WKH QXPEHU RI FRUUHFW LGHQWLILFDWLRQV IRUPHG WKH VFRUH RQ 364 $Q $1&29$ XVLQJ E657 DV FRYDULDWHf UHYHDOHG QR VLJQLILFDQW HIIHFW IRU

PAGE 194

0HDQ 6FRUH RQ 3RVW6HVVLRQ 4XHVWLRQQDLUH 0IL; 3266 f +6 6 F &RQWURO (JJDD 6XEOLPLQDO +\SQRVL V 6XEOLPLQDO 7UHDWPHQW &RQGLWLRQ ),*85( 727$/ 32676(66,21 48(67,211$,5( 364f 6&25( %< 75($70(17 &21',7,21

PAGE 195

WUHDWPHQW FRQGLWLRQ RU IRU WKH FRYDULDWH 5HIHU DJDLQ WR 7DEOHV DQG f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f DQG VXEMHFWV DXGLWRU\ DFXLW\ WR VSHHFK XQGHU DQ\ WUHDWPHQW FRQGLWLRQ 7KLV K\SRWKHVLV ZDV WHVWHG E\ D WZRZD\ VXVFHSWLELOLW\ OHYHO [ WUHDWPHQW FRQGLWLRQf DQDO\VLV RI FRYDULDQFH RQ HDFK RI WKH IRXU PHDVXUHV RI DXGLWRU\ DFXLW\ WDNHQ GXULQJ WKH LQWHUYHQWLRQ SKDVH RI WKH H[SHULPHQW L6'7 L657 :'6 DQG L:'6f 7KH EDVHOLQH YDOXH RI HDFK PHDVXUH ZDV XVHG DV LWV FRYDULDWH $OO VXEMHFWV ZHUH LQFOXGHG LQ WKLV DQDO\VLV DQG WKH $1&29$V ZHUH GRQH ERWK XVLQJ VXVFHSWLELOLW\ OHYHOV ORZ PHGLXP DQG KLJKf DQG DJDLQ XVLQJ WKH FROODSVHG OHYHOV ORZ PHGLXP DQG KLJKf LQ DQ HIIRUW WR OHDUQ DV PXFK DV SRVVLEOH DERXW WKH VPDOO JURXS RI ORZ VXVFHSWLELOLW\ OHYHO VXEMHFWV 2Q WKH $1&29$ WHVWV QR VLJQLILFDQW PDLQ HIIHFWV ZHUH IRXQG IRU VXVFHSWLELOLW\ OHYHO RQ DQ\ RI WKH IRXU DXGLWRU\ DFXLW\ YDULDEOHV L6'7 L657 :'6 DQG L:'6f XVLQJ HLWKHU WKH WKUHHOHYHO RU WKH FROODSVHG WZROHYHO GLYLVLRQ RI

PAGE 196

0HDQ 8'6 +6 +6 6 6 & & +\SQRVLV6XEOLPLQDO +6f 6XEOLPLQDO 6f DQG &RQWURO &f *URXSV ),*85( 5(63216( 72 68%/,0,1$/ &203281' :25' 35,0(6 364f %< 75($70(17 &21',7,21

PAGE 197

VXVFHSWLELOLW\ 1HLWKHU ZHUH WKHUH DQ\ VLJQLILFDQW WUHDWPHQW [ VXVFHSWLELOLW\ OHYHO LQWHUDFWLRQV $V H[SHFWHG EDVHOLQH YDOXHV RI WKH YDULDEOHV XVHG DV FRYDULDWHV ZHUH KLJKO\ VLJQLILFDQW S f LQ DOO FDVHV 5HIHU WR 7DEOH f 3ODQQHG FRPSDULVRQV KRZHYHU GLG UHYHDO RQH VLJQLILFDQW VXVFHSWLELOLW\ OHYHO HIIHFW ZLWKLQ D WUHDWPHQW JURXS 2Q WKH YDULDEOH :'6 ZLWKLQ WKH FRQWURO JURXS RQO\ VXEMHFWV LQ WKH ORZ VXVFHSWLELOLW\ OHYHO VFRUHG VLJQLILFDQWO\ KLJKHU PHDQ f WKDQ WKRVH LQ WKH PRGHUDWH OHYHO PHDQ f W >@ S f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f VRXQG UHFRJQLWLRQ WKUHVKROG 657f RU ZRUG GLVFULPLQDWLRQ VFRUH XQGHU PDVNHG FRQGLWLRQV :'6f 2Q WKH ZRUG GLVFULPLQDWLRQ VFRUH DW G% :'6f GLIIHUHQFHV ZHUH IRXQG EHWZHHQ WKH ORZ DQG PHGLXP VXVFHSWLELOLW\ OHYHOV ZLWKLQ WKH FRQWURO JURXS ZKLFK ZHUH QR ORQJHU GLVFHUQLEOH ZKHQ WKHVH VXVFHSWLELOLW\ OHYHOV ZHUH FROODSVHG 7KXV IURP WKH SHUVSHFWLYH RI WKH WKUHH

PAGE 198

7$%/( $1$/<6,6 2) $8',7&5< $&8,7< 9$5,$%/(6 %< 686&(37,%,/,7< /(9(/ $1' 75($70(17 *5283 1 FDVHVf $8',725< $&8,7< 9$5,$%/( 627 7(67 ())(&7 GI ) ( &RYDULDWH E6'7f 6XVFHSWLELOLW\ /0+f 7UHDWPHQW ,QWHUDFWLRQ &RYDULDWH E657f 6XVFHSWLELOLW\ /0+f 7UHDWPHQW ,QWHUDFWLRQ &RYDULDWH E6'6 f 6XVFHSWLELOLW\ /0+f :'6 7UHDWPHQW ,QWHUDFWLRQ :'6 &RYDULDWH E:'6 f 6XVFHSWLELOLW\ /0+f ,QWHUDFWLRQ

PAGE 199

0HDQ L6'7 LQ G% ILGMXVWHG RU %DVHOLQH 6'7f +6 6 & (66 +LJK P /RX 0HGLXP +\SQRVLV6XE LPLQDO +6f 6XEOLPLQDO 6f DQG &RQL URO &f *URXSV ),*85( 63((&+ '(7(&7,21 7+5(6+2/' L6'7f >$'-867('@ %< &2//$36(' 686&(37,%,/,7< /(9(/ /2:0(',80 $1' +,*+f $1' 75($70(17 *5283

PAGE 200

0HDQ L657 LQ G% +6 6 & +\SQRVLV6XEOLPLQDO +6f 6XEOLPLQDO 6f DQG &RQWURO &f *URXSV ),*85( 63((&+ 5(&2*1,7,21 7+5(6+2/' L657f >$'-867('@ %< 75($70(17 *5283 $1' &2//$36(' 686&(37,%,/,7< /(9(/ /2:0(',80 $1' +,*+f

PAGE 201

0HDQ 8'6 6FRUH ILG MXV WHG IRU %DVHOLQH 8'6f0),; 3266 f +6 6 & mf ‘f 8/ ,,3 +LJK /RX0HGLXP +\SQRVLV6XEOLPLQDO +6f 6XEOLPLQDO 6f DQG &RQWURO &f *URXSV ),*85( :25' ',6&5,0,1$7,21 6&25( $7 G% :'6f >$'-867('@ %< &2//$36(' 686&(37,%,/,7< /(9(/ /2:0(',80 $1' +,*+f $1' 75($70(17 &21',7,21

PAGE 202

0HDQ 8'6 6FRUH 5GMXVWHG ? %DVHOLQH 8'6f 05; 366 f WVVVVA +LJK /RX0HGLXP +\SQRVLV6XEOLPLQDO +6f 6XEOLPLQDO 6f DQG &RQWURO &f *URXSV ),*85( :25' ',6&5,0,1$7,21 6&25( $7 G% 61 L:'6f >$'-867('@ %< &2//$36(' 686&(37,%,/,7< /(9(/ /2:0(',80 $1' +,*+f $1' 75($70(17 &21',7,21

PAGE 203

VXVFHSWLELOLW\ JURXS DQDO\VLV +2 VKRXOG WHFKQLFDOO\ EH UHMHFWHG ZLWK UHVSHFW WR :'6 +RZHYHU LQ YLHZ RI WKH VPDOO QXPEHU RI ORZ VXVFHSWLEOHV ZKLFK UHSUHVHQW WKH JURXS DQG WKH IDFW WKDW WKH GLIIHUHQFHV DUH IRXQG ZLWKLQ WKH FRQWURO RQO\ LW LV GLIILFXOW WR JLYH PXFK ZHLJKW WR WKLV HYLGHQFH IRU D VXVFHSWLELOLW\ HIIHFW 7KHUHIRUH +2 PLJKW PRUH SUDFWLFDOO\ EH FRQVLGHUHG QRW UHMHFWHG RQ DQ\ FRXQW +4 1R UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ K\SQRWLF VXVFHSWLELOLW\ OHYHO DV PHDVXUHG E\ +*6+6$ VFRUH DQG VXEMHFWVn UHVSRQVH WR VXEOLPLQDO EHKDYLRUDO VXJJHVWLRQV XQGHU DQ\ WUHDWPHQW FRQGLWLRQ )RU WKH FDWHJRULFDO EHKDYLRUDO YDULDEOHV L3(1 DQG L5(:$5' WKLV K\SRWKHVLV ZDV WHVWHG E\ D ORJLVWLF UHJUHVVLRQ PRGHO XVLQJ FROODSVHG VXVFHSWLELOLW\ JURXS DQG WUHDWPHQW FRQGLWLRQ DV SUHGLFWRUV 7KH EDVHOLQH YDOXH E3(1 ZDV QRW XVHG LQ WKH UHJUHVVLRQ PRGHO IRU L3(1 VLQFH LW ZDV QRW VLJQLILFDQW :I S f DQG WKH PRGHO &KL LPSURYHG VOLJKWO\ ZLWKRXW LW &KL >@ ZLWK E3(1 S &KL >@ ZLWKRXW E3(1 S f $ WZRZD\ FROODSVHG VXVFHSWLELOLW\ OHYHO [ WUHDWPHQW FRQGLWLRQf $1&29$ ZDV XVHG RQ WKH YDULDEOHV L/(*6 L/(*60,1 DQG L/22. %HFDXVH LW ZDV QHFHVVDU\ WR HOLPLQDWH WKH VXEMHFWV ZKR FRXOG LGHQWLI\ VXEOLPLQDO PHVVDJHV OHDYLQJ RQO\ ORZ VXVFHSWLEOHV WKH FROODSVHG OHYHO VXVFHSWLELOLW\ FDWHJRUL]DWLRQ KDG WR EH XVHG IRU DOO EHKDYLRUDO YDULDEOHV 7KH DQDO\VLV RI FRYDULDQFH KDG EHHQ SODQQHG XVLQJ EDVHOLQH 657 DV D FRYDULDWH DVVXPLQJ WKDW KHDULQJ WKUHVKROGV PLJKW DIIHFW UHVSRQVH +RZHYHU E657

PAGE 204

ZDV QRW IRXQG WR EH D VLJQLILFDQW IDFWRU LQ SUHGLFWLQJ DQ\ RI WKH LQWHUYHQWLRQ YDULDEOHV ZKHUHDV EDVHOLQH YDOXHV RI WKHVH WKUHH YDULDEOHV ZHUH 7KHUHIRUH WKH EDVHOLQH HTXLYDOHQW WR WKH EHKDYLRUDO PHDVXUH ZDV XVHG DV FRYDULDWH $ VXPPDU\ RI WKH DQDO\VHV LV VKRZQ LQ 7DEOH 2Q WKH ILYH SULPDU\ EHKDYLRUDO YDULDEOHV FROODSVHG VXVFHSWLELOLW\ OHYHO ZDV IRXQG WR EH D VLJQLILFDQW SUHGLFWRU RQO\ RQ UDWH RI JUHHQ SHQ VHOHFWLRQ L3(1f :I >@ S f )LJXUH LOOXVWUDWHV WKH GLIIHUHQFHV LQ PHDQV EHWZHHQ KLJK +Lf DQG ORZPHGLXP /0f VXVFHSWLEOHV LQ HDFK WUHDWPHQW FRQGLWLRQ ,W LV ZRUWK QRWLQJ WKDW ZKHQ FROODSVHG VXVFHSWLELOLW\ OHYHO LV LQFOXGHG LQ WKH PRGHO WUHDWPHQW JURXS EHFRPHV D VLJQLILFDQW SUHGLFWRU RI FKRLFH RI SHQ FRORU : >@ S f DOWKRXJK LW EDUHO\ HVFDSHG VLJQLILFDQFH LQ WKH UHJUHVVLRQ PRGHO ZLWK WUHDWPHQW DQG E3(1 DORQH UHSRUWHG XQGHU +f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

PAGE 205

7$%/( $1$/<6,6 2) %(+$9,25$/ 9$5,$%/(6 %< &2//$36(' 686&(37,%,/,7< /(9(/ $1' *5283 1 FDVHVf %(+$9,25$/ 9$5,$%/( 7(67 ())(&7 7(67 VU$QVQF ( $ %DVHOLQH YDOXH E3(1f 5HPRYHG LI >@ O3(1 6XVFHSWLELOLW\ /0 +f LI >@ 7UHDWPHQW LI >@ ,QWHUDFWLRQ LI >@ L5(:$5' 6XVFHSWLELOLW\ /0 +f LI >@ 7UHDWPHQW LI >@ ,QWHUDFWLRQ LI >@ /(26 &RYDULDWH E/%*6f ) >@ 6XVFHSWLELOLW\ /0 +f ) >@ 7UHDWPHQW ) >@ ,QWHUDFWLRQ ) >@ /(660/1 &RYDULDWH E/%*60,1f ) >@ 6XVFHSWLELOLW\ /0 +f ) >@ 7UHDWPHQW ) >@ ,QWHUDFWLRQ ) >@ L82&. &RYDULDWH E/22.f ) >@ 6XVFHSWLELOLW\ /0 +f ) >@ 7UHDWPHQW ) >@ ,QWHUDFWLRQ ) >@

PAGE 206

0HDQ 5DWH RW *UHHQ 3HQ &KRLFH +6 6 & +LJK /RX0HGLXP +\SQRVLV6XEOLPLQDO +6f 6XEOLPLQDO 6f RU &RQWURO &f *URXS ),*85( *5((1 3(1 6(/(&7,21 3267,17(59(17,21 L3(1f %< &2//$36(' 686&(37,%,/,7< /(9(/ /2:0(',80 $1' +,*+f $1' 75($70(17 &21',7,21

PAGE 207

0HDQ 5DWH R *UHHQ 5HXDUG +\SQRVLV6XEPLQDO +6f 6XEOLPLQDO 6f RU &RQWURO &f *URXS ),*85( *5((1 5(:$5' 6(/(&7,21 3267,17(59(17,21 L5(:$5'f %< &2//$36(' 686&(37,%,/,7< /(9(/ /2:0(',80 $1' +,*+f $1' 75($70(17 &21',7,21

PAGE 208

0HDQ 1XPEHU RI /HJ &URVVLQJV ILGMXV OHG ORU %DVHOLQH /(*6f +\SQRVLV6XEOLPLQDO +6f 6XEOLPLQDO 6! RU &RQWURO &f *URXS ),*85( ,167$1&(6 2) /(* &5266,1* '85,1* ,17(59(17,21 L/(*6f >$'-867('@ %< &2//$36(' 686&(37,%,/,7< /(9(/ /2:0(',80 $1' +,*+f $1' 75($70(17 &21',7,21

PAGE 209

0HDQ 'XUDWLRQ RL /HJ &URVVLQJ +6 6 & +\SQRVLV6XEOLPLQDO +6f 6XEOLPLQDO 6f RU &RQWURO &f *URXS ),*85( '85$7,21 2) /(* &5266,1* L/(*60,1f >$'-867('@ %< &2//$36(' 686&(37,%,/,7< /(9(/ /2:0(',80 $1' +,*+f $1' 75($70(17 &21',7,21

PAGE 210

0HDQ 2FFXUUHQFHV RI /RRNLQJ +6 6 & +\SQRVLV6XEOLPLQDO +6f 6XEOLPLQDO 6f RU &RQL URO &f *URXS ),*85( ,167$1&(6 2) /22.,1* %(+,1' '85,1* ,17(59(17,21 L/22.f >$'-867('@ %< &2//$36(' 686&(37,%,/,7< /(9(/ /2:0(',80 $1' +,*+f $1' 75($70(17 *5283

PAGE 211

GLIIHUHQFHV LQ VXEJURXS PHDQV IRU WKH WZR VXVFHSWLELOLW\ OHYHOV LQ HDFK WUHDWPHQW FRQGLWLRQ RQ WKH YDULDEOHV L5(:$5' L/(*6 L/(*60,1 DQG L/22. UHVSHFWLYHO\ 7KHUHIRUH GDWD GRHV QRW VXSSRUW WKH UHMHFWLRQ RI +2 IRU WKH WZR EHKDYLRUDO YDULDEOHV UHODWHG WR OHJ FURVVLQJ UHVSRQVH L/(*6 DQG L/(*60,1f RU IRU ORRNLQJ EHKLQG L/22.f RU FKRLFH RI JUHHQ UHZDUG L5(:$5'f 1R VXVFHSWLELOLW\ HIIHFWV ZHUH IRXQG IRU WKHVH YDULDEOHV IRU DQ\ WUHDWPHQW FRQGLWLRQV 2QO\ IRU WKH YDULDEOH L3(1 LV D VLJQLILFDQW HIIHFW IRU VXVFHSWLELOLW\ DSSDUHQW FDOOLQJ IRU WKH UHMHFWLRQ RI WKLV K\SRWKHVLV +2 1R UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ WKH YDULDEOH RI K\SQRWLF VXVFHSWLELOLW\ OHYHO DV PHDVXUHG E\ +*6+6$ VFRUH DQG VXEMHFWVn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

PAGE 212

6LJQLILFDQW PDLQ HIIHFWV IRU VXVFHSWLELOLW\ ZHUH SUHVHQW RQ WKH YDULDEOHV 364 ) >@ S f DQG WKH WRWDO 3RVW6HVVLRQ 4XHVWLRQQDLUH 6FRUH 364727$/ ) >@ S f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f $Q H[DPLQDWLRQ RI WKH VXEJURXS PHDQV LQGLFDWHV WKDW WKH PHDQ VFRUH RI IRU WKH ORZPHGLXP FRQWURO JURXS VXEMHFWV LV GLVWLQFWO\ EHORZ DOO RI WKH RWKHU VXEJURXS PHDQV 5HIHU WR )LJXUH f DQG WKDW LQ DOO WUHDWPHQW FRQGLWLRQV WKH PHDQ IRU ORZPHGLXP VXEMHFWV IDOOV EHORZ WKDW RI WKH KLJK VXVFHSWLELOLW\ OHYHO VXEMHFWV 7KLV WKHQ UHSUHVHQWV WKH EDVLV IRU WKH VLJQLILFDQW PDLQ HIIHFW IRU VXVFHSWLELOLW\ OHYHO RQ WKH $1&29$

PAGE 213

7$%/( $1$/<6,6 2) 32676(66,21 48(67,211$,5( 364f &2*1,7,9( 9$5,$%/(6 &2//$36(' 686&(37,%,/,7< /(9(/ $1' 75($70(17 *5283 1 FDVHVf 3RU 364$% 1 FDVHVf 32676(66,21 7(67 7(67 3 48(67,211$,5( ())(&7 VLZQVQF 9$5,$%/( n &RYDULDWH E657f ) >@ 364 6XVFHSWLELOLW\ /0 +f ) >@ 7UHDWPHQW ) >@ ,QWHUDFWLRQ ) >@ &RYDULDWH E657f ) >@ 364 6XVFHSWLELOLW\ /0 +f ) >@ 7UHDWPHQW ) >@ ,QWHUDFWLRQ ) >@ &RYDULDWH E657f ) >@ 364$% 6XVFHSWLELOLW\ /0 +f ) >@ 7UHDWPHQW ) >@ ,QWHUDFWLRQ ) >@ &RYDULDWH E657f ) >@ 364 6XVFHSWLELOLW\ /0 +f ) >@ 7UHDWPHQW ) >@ ,QWHUDFWLRQ ) >@ 364727$/ &RYDULDWH E657f ) >@ 6XVFHSWLELOLW\ /0 +f ) >@ 7UHDWPHQW ) >@ ,QWHUDFWLRQ ) >@

PAGE 214

7$%/( $1$/<6,6 2) 6833/(0(17$5< 32676(66,21 48(67,211$,5( 364f 9$5,$%/(6 %< &2//$36(' 686&(37,%,/,7< /(9(/ $1' 75($70(17 *5283 1 FDVHVf )WDU 364$ DQG 364% 1 FDVHVf 48(67,211$,5( 9$5,$%/( 7(67 )(&7 7(67 67$7,67,& &RYDULDWH E657f 6XVFHSWLELOLW\ /0 +f 7UHDWPHQW ,QWHUDFWLRQ ) >@ ) >@ ) >@ ) >@ H &RYDULDWH E657f ) >@ 6XVFHSWLELOLW\ /0 +f 7UHDWPHQW ,QWHUDFWLRQ ) >@ ) >@ ) >@ &RYDULDWH E657f ) >@ 6XVFHSWLELOLW\ /0 +f ) >@ ,QWHUDFWLRQ ) >@ &RYDULDWH E657f 6XVFHSWLELOLW\ /0 +f ) >@ ) >@ 7UHDWPHQW ) >@ ,QWHUDFWLRQ ) >@ &RYDULDWH E657f 6XVFHSWLELOLW\ /0 +f 7UHDWPHQW ,QWHUDFWLRQ ) >@ ) >@ ) >@ ) >@

PAGE 215

0HDQ 6FRUH RQ 364 0IL; 3266 f +LJK /RX0HGLXP +\SQRVLV6XEOLPLQDO +6f 6XEOLPLQDO 6f DQG &RQL URO &f *URXSV ),*85( 5(63216( 72 ,1',5(&7 48(67,216 $%287 68%/,0,1$/6 364 t f %< &2//$36(' 686&(37,%,/,7< /(9(/ /2:0(',80 $1' +,*+f $1' 75($70(17 &21',7,21

PAGE 216

+6 6 & +\SQRVLV6XE@LPLQDO +6f 6XEOLPLQDO 6f RU &RQWURO &f *URXS ),*85( 3(5&(17 :+2 %(/,(9(' 7+(< :(5( 35(6(17(' 68%/,0,1$/ &8(6 %< &2//$36(' 686&(37,%,/,7< /(9(/ /2:0(',80 $1' +,*+f $1' 75($70(17 &21',7,21

PAGE 217

3HUFHQW 5HVSRQGLQJ
PAGE 218

0HDQ 6FRUH RQ 364 +6 6 & +\SQRVLV6XELPLQDO +6f 6XEOLPLQDO 6f DQG &RQWURO &f *URXSV ),*85( &255(&7 5(63216(6 21 /,676 2) 3266,%/( 68%/,0,1$/ &8(6 364f %< &2//$36(' 686&(37,%,/,7< /(9(/ /2:0(',80 $1' +,*+f $1' 75($70(17 &21',7,21

PAGE 219

0HDQ 3RVW7HVW 6FRUH +\SQRVLV6XEOLPLQDO +6f 6XEOLPLQDO 6f DQG &RQWURO &f *URXSV ),*85( 727$/ 32677(67 6&25( 364727$/f %< &2//$36(' 686&(37,%,/,7< /(9(/ /2:0(',80 $1' +,*+f $1' 75($70(17 &21',7,21

PAGE 220

:KHQ WKH 364 VFRUHV ZHUH WRWDOHG DQG WKH RYHUDOO VFRUH RI WKH SRVWWHVW 364727$/f DQDO\]HG KRZHYHU WKH SODQQHG FRPSDULVRQV VKRZHG D VLJQLILFDQW GLIIHUHQFH EHWZHHQ VXVFHSWLELOLW\ JURXS PHDQV LQ WKH VXEOLPLQDOVRQO\ JURXS W>@ S f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f LQ WKH WUHDWPHQW [ VXVFHSWLELOLW\ OHYHO $1&29$ \LHOGHG QR VLJQLILFDQW PDLQ RU LQWHUDFWLRQ HIIHFWV RWKHU WKDQ WKH YHU\ VDPH RQHV ZKLFK DSSHDUHG XVLQJ WKH FROODSVHG VXVFHSWLELOLW\ OHYHOV

PAGE 221

+2 1R UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ WKH YDULDEOH RI K\SQRWLF VXVFHSWLELOLW\ OHYHO DV PHDVXUHG E\ +*6+6$ VFRUHI DQG VXEMHFWV DFFXUDF\ RI LGHQWLILFDWLRQ RI VXEOLPLQDO FRPSRXQG ZRUG SULPHV LQ DQY WUHDWPHQW FRQGLWLRQ 7KLV K\SRWKHVLV ZDV WHVWHG E\ PHDQV RI D VXVFHSWLELOLW\ OHYHO [ WUHDWPHQW FRQGLWLRQ $1&29$ RI WKH YDULDEOH 364 ZKLFK UHSUHVHQWHG VXEMHFWVn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f WKDQ WKRVH LQ WKH ORZPHGLXP VXVFHSWLELOLW\ OHYHO PHDQ f LQ WKLV FRQGLWLRQ W >@ S f 2Q SRVW KRF DQDO\VLV WKHUH ZDV QR GLIIHUHQFH EH\RQG FKDQFH LQ PDUJLQDO PHDQV EXW DJDLQ ZLWKLQ WKH VXEOLPLQDOVRQO\ JURXS D VLJQLILFDQW GLIIHUHQFH ZDV IRXQG EHWZHHQ WKH WZR VXVFHSWLELOLW\ OHYHOV 6FKHIIH S f 7KHUHIRUH +2 LV UHMHFWHG GXH WR WKH VSHFLILF VXVFHSWLELOLW\ HIIHFW SUHVHQW LQ WKH VXEOLPLQDOVRQO\ FRQGLWLRQ

PAGE 222

0HDQ 6FRUH RQ 364 0IL; 3266 f 6 +LJK WRr /RX0HGLXP +6 6 & +\SQRVLV6XEOLPLQDO +6f 6XEOLPLQDO 6f DQG &RQWURO &f *URXSV ),*85( 5(63216( 72 68%/,0,1$/ &203281' :25' 35,0(6 364f &2//$36(' /2:0(',80 $1' +,*+f $1' 75($70(17 &21'7,,21

PAGE 223

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

PAGE 224

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

PAGE 225

6SHFLILF GLIIHUHQFHV EHWZHHQ +6 DQG & JURXS PHDQV DQG EHWZHHQ 6 DQG & JURXS PHDQV >E@ 5HMHFWHG ZLWK UHVSHFW WR LQGLUHFW TXHVWLRQLQJ RQ 364 0DLQ HIIHFW IRU WUHDWPHQW 6SHFLILF GLIIHUHQFHV EHWZHHQ +6 DQG & JURXS PHDQV DQG EHWZHHQ 6 DQG & JURXS PHDQV >F@ 5HMHFWHG ZLWK UHVSHFW WR RYHUDOO 364 VFRUH 6SHFLILF GLIIHUHQFH EHWZHHQ 6 DQG & JURXS PHDQV >G@ 1RW UHMHFWHG ZLWK UHVSHFW WR LQGLUHFW TXHVWLRQLQJ RQ 364 +2 1R GLIIHUHQFH LQ DFFXUDF\ RI LGHQWLILFDWLRQ RI VXEOLPLQDO FRPSRXQG ZRUG SULPHV EHWZHHQ JURXSV 1RW UHMHFWHG +2 1R UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ K\SQRWLF VXVFHSWLELOLW\ OHYHO IDV PHDVXUHG EY +*6+6$ VFRUHf DQG VXEMHFWVn DXGLWRU\ DFXLW\ WR VSHHFK XQGHU DQ\ WUHDWPHQW FRQGLWLRQ 1RW UHMHFWHG +2 1R UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ K\SQRWLF VXVFHSWLELOLW\ OHYHO DV PHDVXUHG E\ +*6+6$ VFRUHG DQG VXEMHFWVn UHVSRQVH WR VXEOLPLQDO EHKDYLRUDO VXJJHVWLRQV XQGHU DQ\ WUHDWPHQW FRQGLWLRQ >D@ 5HMHFWHG ZLWK UHVSHFW WR VHOHFWLRQ RI JUHHQ SHQ 6LJQLILFDQW : IRU FROODSVHG VXVFHSWLELOLW\ JURXS >E@ 1RW UHMHFWHG ZLWK UHVSHFW WR VHOHFWLRQ RI JUHHQ UHZDUG RFFXUUHQFHV RI OHJ FURVVLQJ GXUDWLRQ RI OHJ FURVVLQJ RU RFFXUUHQFHV RI ORRNLQJ EHKLQG

PAGE 226

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n DFFXUDF\ RI LGHQWLILFDWLRQ RI VXEOLPLQDO FRPSRXQG ZRUG SULPHV LQ DQ\ WUHDWPHQW FRQGLWLRQ 6SHFLILF GLIIHUHQFH EHWZHHQ FROODSVHG VXVFHSWLELOLW\ OHYHO PHDQV LQ WKH 6 JURXS 5HODWLRQVKLS RI /RQJ 6WDQIRUG 6WDWH 6FDOH n/666fO 6FRUHV WR WKH +DUYDUG *URXS 6FDOH RI +\SQRWLF 6XVFHSWLELOLW\ )RUP $ +*6+6$f 0HDQ VFRUHV RQ WKH WZR /666 PHDVXUHV WDNHQ GXULQJ VHVVLRQ RQH ZHUH DQG JLYLQJ DQ DYHUDJH /666 GHSWK UHDGLQJ RI RQ D VFDOH UHSUHVHQWLQJ D PRGHUDWH OHYHO RI

PAGE 227

WUDQFH %RWK E/666O DQG E/666 FRUUHODWHG KLJKO\ ZLWK +*6+6U$ VFRUHV E/666O 5 J E/666 5 J f ,Q VHVVLRQ WZR RQO\ WKH K\SQRVLVVXEOLPLQDOV JURXS ZDV DVNHG WR JLYH /666 HVWLPDWHV )RU WKLV JURXS WKHUH ZHUH WKUHH HVWLPDWHV WKH ILUVW DIWHU WKH K\SQRWLF LQGXFWLRQ WKH VHFRQG DIWHU WKH DXGLWRU\ WHVWLQJ VHULHV DQG WKH WKLUG IROORZLQJ WKH PDVNHG VXEOLPLQDO PHVVDJH VHJXHQFH MXVW EHIRUH EHLQJ DZDNHQHG 0HDQ VFRUHV IRU WKHVH YDULDEOHV ZHUH DV IROORZV L/666O /666 DQG /666 7KLV VXJJHVWV WKDW VXEMHFWV IHOW OHDVW K\SQRWL]HG DIWHU KHDULQJ WKH DXGLWRU\ WHVWLQJ ZKLFK UHTXLUHG FORVH DWWHQWLRQ DQG IUHTXHQW YHUEDO UHVSRQVHV DQG PRVW K\SQRWL]HG DW WKH HQG RI WKH VHVVLRQ IROORZLQJ WKH TXLHW LQWHUYDO RI PDVNHG FXHV 7KH DYHUDJH RI WKH WKUHH VFRUHV ZDV ZKLFK LV ORZHU WKDQ WKH RYHUDOO PHDQ IRU WKH VHVVLRQ RQH UHDGLQJV EXW VWLOO LQGLFDWHV D OLJKW WR PRGHUDWH OHYHO RI K\SQRWLF GHSWK 7KLV DYHUDJH L/666 VFRUH FRUUHODWHV KLJKO\ ZLWK +*6+6$ VFRUHV 5 J f DV GRHV WKH WKLUG UHDGLQJ /666 5 J f &RUUHODWLRQV IRU WKH ILUVW DQG VHFRQG UHDGLQJV IDOO MXVW EHORZ VWDWLVWLFDO VLJQLILFDQFH L/666O 5 J /666 5 J f $ JUDSKLF FRPSDULVRQ RI PHDQ OHYHO RI WUDQFH LQ VHVVLRQV RQH DQG WZR IRU WKH K\SQRVLVVXEOLPLQDOV JURXS LV SUHVHQWHG LQ )LJXUH 7KLV ILJXUH LOOXVWUDWHV WKH IDFW WKDW LQ VHVVLRQ RQH b RI WKH +6 JURXS UHSRUWHG PHDQ OHYHOV RI WUDQFH LQ

PAGE 228

WKH KLJKHU f UDQJH EXW LQ VHVVLRQ WZR QR RQH UHSRUWHG D PHDQ GHSWK RI WUDQFH DERYH $OVR RQO\ RQH VXEMHFW bf SUHVHQWHG D PHDQ /666 VFRUH LQ WKH ERUGHUOLQHf UDQJH LQ VHVVLRQ RQH ZKHUHDV IRXU VXEMHFWV bf GLG VR LQ VHVVLRQ WZR 7KXV VXEMHFWVn VXEMHFWLYH HVWLPDWHV RI WUDQFH GHSWK ZHUH JHQHUDOO\ KLJKHU GXULQJ WKH +*6+6$ DGPLQLVWUDWLRQ LQ VHVVLRQ RQH WKDQ GXULQJ WKH DXGLRPHWULF WHVWLQJ DQG PDVNHG VXEOLPLQDO FXH SUHVHQWDWLRQ LQ VHVVLRQ WZR GHVSLWH WKH XVH RI D GHHSHQLQJ WHFKQLTXH 7KLUW\VL[ RI WKH +6 VXEMHFWV GLG UHSRUW DQ DYHUDJH GHSWK RI K\SQRWLF WUDQFH LQ WKH OLJKW WR PRGHUDWH UDQJH KRZHYHU ZKLFK LV VXIILFLHQW IRU WKH SXUSRVHV RI WKH UHVHDUFK 6XVFHSWLELOLW\ +*6+6$f ZDV QRW IRXQG WR FRUUHODWH ZLWK PHDVXUHV RI OHIW RU ULJKW KDQGHGQHVV 5 S f $OWKRXJK DQDO\VLV E\ VH[ ZDV QRW SDUW RI WKH H[SHULPHQWDO GHVLJQ SRVW KRF UHYLHZ RI WKH YDULDEOHV E\ VH[ UHYHDOHG WZR LQWHUHVWLQJ GLIIHUHQFHV 7KH RQO\ YDULDEOHV ZKLFK \LHOGHG VLJQLILFDQW FRUUHODWLRQV ZLWK VH[ ZHUH +*6+6$ VFRUH 5 S f VXVFHSWLELOLW\ OHYHO 5 S f DQG WKH IRXU YDULDEOHV UHODWHG WR OHJ FURVVLQJ EHKDYLRU E/(*6 5 S f E/(*60,1 5 S f L/(*6 5 S f DQG L/(*60,1 5 ( f

PAGE 229

ILYHUDJH /666 6FRUH 7UDQFH 'HSWKf %DVHOLQH DQG ([SHULPHQWDO ),*85( +<3126,668%/,0,1$/ *5283 &203$5,621 2) $9(5$*( /666 6&25( $7 %$6(/,1( $1' '85,1* (;3(5,0(17$/ ,17(59(17,21

PAGE 230

+*6+6$ 2ULJLQDO YDOLGDWLRQ VWXGLHV RQ WKH +DUYDUG *URXS 6FDOH RI +\SQRWLF 6XVFHSWLELOLW\ )RUP $ GLG QRW UHSRUW D VH[ GLIIHUHQWLDO 6KRU DQG 2UQH f +RZHYHU VLQFH WKDW WLPH ZKLOH WKH PDMRULW\ RI VWXGLHV HLWKHU GR QRW ILQG RU GR QRW GLVFXVV D GLIIHUHQFH LQ PHDQV DFURVV VH[HV %HQWOHU t 5REHUWV )UDQNHO HW DO +LOJDUG .LUVFK &RXQFLO t :LFNOHVV /DPDV HW DO 3HUU\ t /DZUHQFH f D IHZ GR &RH f UHSRUWHG GLIIHUHQFHV EHWZHHQ PDOH 0f DQG IHPDOH )f GUDPDWLF DUWV PDMRUV 0 PHDQ ) PHDQ f /HYLQH .XUW] DQG /DXWHU f UHSRUWHG WKDW IHPDOHV REWDLQHG VLJQLILFDQWO\ KLJKHU EHKDYLRUDO 0 PHDQ ) PHDQ f DQG VXEMHFWLYH VFRUHV 0 PHDQ ) PHDQ f WKDQ PDOHV 6WDQJHU f UHSRUWHG D VLJQLILFDQWO\ KLJKHU PHDQ +*6+6$ VFRUH IRU IHPDOHV WKDQ IRU PDOHV LQ D UHFHQW GLVVHUWDWLRQ VWXG\ GRQH DW WKLV XQLYHUVLW\ 0 PHDQ ) PHDQ f 7KXV ZKHQ D GLIIHUHQWLDO LV UHSRUWHG IHPDOHV JHQHUDOO\ GHPRQVWUDWH KLJKHU VXVFHSWLELOLW\ 6XFK ZDV DOVR WKH FDVH LQ WKH FXUUHQW VWXG\ VDPSOH W >@ S f 0HDQ +*6+6$ VFRUH IRU PDOHV ZDV 6' f IRU IHPDOHV WKH PHDQ ZDV 6' f 7KH GLVWULEXWLRQ RI +*6+6$ VFRUHV E\ VH[ LV LOOXVWUDWHG LQ )LJXUH

PAGE 231

/HHU &URVVLQJ :LWK UHVSHFW WR OHJ FURVVLQJ EHKDYLRU IHPDOHV LQ WKH VWXG\ FURVVHG WKHLU OHJV VLJQLILFDQWO\ PRUH IUHTXHQWO\ WKDQ PDOHV DW EDVHOLQH E/(*6 &KL >@ S f DQG GXULQJ WKH LQWHUYHQWLRQ SHULRG L/(*6 &KL >@ S f +RZHYHU ZKLOH WKH PHDQ GXUDWLRQ RI OHJ FURVVLQJ /(*60,1f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

PAGE 232

+LJK 0HGLXP /RX +LJK 0HGLXP /RX +*6+6IL 6FRUHV E\ 6H[ DQG 6XVFHSWLELOLW\ /HYHO ),*85( +<3127,& 686&(37,%,/,7< %< 6(; 0$/(6 96 )(0$/(6

PAGE 233

7$%/( 0($16 67$1'$5' '(9,$7,216 $1' 7(67 67$7,67,&6 )&5 /(* &5266,1* 0($685(6 %< 6(; 1 FDVHVf 9$5,$%/( 1 0($1 f 6' 1 0($1 f 6' FP >@ (

PAGE 234

VFRUH RI RU OHVV RYHU WKUHH PHDVXUHPHQWVf GXULQJ WKH +6 LQWHUYHQWLRQ $OO RI WKHVH KDG KLJKHU PHDQ /666 VFRUHV LQ WKH LQLWLDO VHVVLRQ DQG f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

PAGE 235

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f :LOOLDP -DPHV >@ SS f 6XPPDU\ DQG ,QWHUSUHWDWLRQ RI )LQGLQJV 7KLV VWXG\ LQYHVWLJDWHG WKH HIIHFWV RI WZR W\SHV RI XQFRQVFLRXV WUHDWPHQW VXEOLPLQDO DXGLWRU\ PHVVDJHV DQG VXEOLPLQDO PHVVDJHV FRPELQHG ZLWK K\SQRWLF VXJJHVWLRQ 5HVSRQVH ZDV PHDVXUHG LQ WHUPV RI DXGLWRU\ DFXLW\ YDULDEOHV EHKDYLRUDO YDULDEOHV DQG LQGLUHFW DQG GLUHFW TXHVWLRQLQJ %RWK ZLWKLQVXEMHFW HIIHFWV DQG FRPSDULVRQ ZLWK D FRQWURO JURXS ZHUH PHDVXUHG $GGLWLRQDOO\ WKH UHODWLRQVKLS RI K\SQRWLF VXVFHSWLELOLW\ WR VXEMHFWVn UHVSRQVH ZDV LQYHVWLJDWHG )LQGLQJV ZLOO EH GLVFXVVHG LQ IRXU SDUWV UHVSRQVH WR VXEOLPLQDO FXHV UHVSRQVH WR K\SQRWLF VXJJHVWLRQ

PAGE 236

SOXV VXEOLPLQDO FXHV RYHUDOO WUHDWPHQW HIIHFWV DQG VXVFHSWLELOLW\ HIIHFWV 5HVSRQVH WR 6XEOLPLQDO &XHV 7KH JURXS WKDW UHFHLYHG RQO\ VXEOLPLQDO FXHV 6f GHPRQVWUDWHG WKH PRVW ZLGHVSUHDG UHVSRQVH DFURVV DOO WKH YDULDEOHV PHDVXUHG 6LJQLILFDQW ZLWKLQVXEMHFWV GLIIHUHQFHV ZHUH IRXQG LQ WKUHH RXW RI IRXU DXGLWRU\ DFXLW\ YDULDEOHV 6'7 :'6 DQG :'6f 'LIIHUHQFHV EHWZHHQ WKH VXEOLPLQDOV JURXS DQG WKH FRQWURO JURXS ZHUH IRXQG LQ WZR RXW RI IRXU DXGLWRU\ DFXLW\ YDULDEOHV :'6 DQG :'6f WZR RXW RI ILYH EHKDYLRUDO YDULDEOHV L/(*6 DQG L/22.f DQG WKUHH RXW RI ILYH 3RVW6HVVLRQ 4XHVWLRQQDLUH >364@ PHDVXUHV LQFOXGLQJ WKH RYHUDOO SRVWWHVW VFRUH 364$% 364 DQG 364727$/f 6LJQLILFDQW UHVXOWV DUH VXPPDUL]HG LQ 7DEOHV DQG 5HVSRQVH RQ WKH RWKHU YDULDEOHV ZDV DOPRVW LQYDULDEO\ LQ WKH SUHGLFWHG GLUHFWLRQ DV FDQ EH REVHUYHG E\ UHYLHZLQJ )LJXUHV WKURXJK f HYHQ WKRXJK LW GLG QRW UHDFK VWDWLVWLFDO VLJQLILFDQFH ZLWK D VDPSOH VL]H UDQJLQJ IURP SHU JURXS :KHQ PHDVXUHG DV D SHUFHQWDJH RI WKH EDVHOLQH RU WKH FRQWURO JURXS VFRUH DV LV GRQH LQ WKH PHGLFDO PRGHO WKH GLIIHUHQFHV RIWHQ UHDFKHG b DQG LQ VRPH FDVHV ZHUH HYHQ JUHDWHU )URP D FOLQLFDO VWDQGSRLQW YLV D YLV WKH LQGLYLGXDO FOLHQW KRZHYHU WKH LPSDFW ZDV JHQHUDOO\ VPDOO DV KDV EHHQ WKH FDVH LQ PRVW VXEOLPLQDO UHVHDUFK )RU H[DPSOH RQ WKH :'6 WKH JURXS ZKR UHFHLYHG VXEOLPLQDO SULPLQJ WR KHDU

PAGE 237

7$%/( $8',725< $&8,7< 9$5,$%/(6 6800$5< 2) 6,*1,),&$17 ())(&76 9$5,$%/(6 >:LWKLQ6XEMHFWV 68%/,0,1$/6 7UHDWPHQW [ :LWKLQ6XEMHFWV ,QWHUDFWLRQf 'HWHFWLRQ 7KUHVKROG >S RR@ f 5HFRJQLWLRQ 7KUHVKROG :RUG 'LVFULPLQDWLRQ 6FRUH DW G% :RUG 'LVFULPLQDWLRQ 6FRUH XQGHU 0DVNLQJ &RQGLWLRQV @ f :,7+,1 68%-(&76 +<3126,6 68%/,0,1$/6 9(5686 &21752/ :,7+,1 68%-(&76 9(5686 &21752/ S S S YV YV Y G% G% G% S S YV YV ZRUGV ZRUGV RXW RI RXW RI S S S RL S YV YV YV YV ZRUGV ZRUGV ZRUGV ZRUGV RXW RI RXW RI RXW RI RXW RI 686&(37, %,/,7< /R0HG YV +Lf

PAGE 238

7$%/( %(+$9,25$/ 9$5,$%/(6 6800$5< 2) 6,*1,),&$17 ())(&76 75($70(17 68%/,0,1$/6 +<3126,6 686&(37,%,/,7< ())(&76 96 &21752/ 68%/,0,1$/6 ())(&76 9$5,$%/( ())(&76 96 &21752/ /R0HG YV ())(&76 +Lf &KRLFH RI /0 + *UHHQ 3HQ S &RORU YV b &KRLFH RI *UHHQ 5HZDUG &RORU S ,QVWDQFHV S S RI /HJ &URVVLQJ YV %HKDYLRU FURVVHV 'XUDWLRQ RI /HJ &URVVLQJ %HKDYLRU ,QVWDQFHV S RI /RRNLQJ %HKLQG YV WLPHV

PAGE 239

7$%/( &2*1,7,9( 9$5,$%/(6 6800$5< 2) 6,*1,),&$17 ())(&76 75($70(17 ())(&76 9$5,$%/( 68%/,0,1$/6 96 &21752/ ())(&76 +<3126,6 68%/,0,1$/6 96 &21752/ ())(&76 7RWDO S 3RVW7HVW 6FRUH YV FRUUHFW RXW RI 3RVW7HVW 4XHVWLRQV t ,QGLUHFWf 3RVW7HVW 4XHVWLRQ ,QGLUHFWf 3RVW7HVW S S S 4XHVWLRQ ,QGLUHFWf YV RXW RI YV RXW RI 3RVW7HVW S S S 4XHVWLRQV $ t % 'LUHFWf $ YV b % YV $ YV b % YV b b 686&(37,%,/,7< ())(&76 /R0HG YV + /0 S YV RXW RI 6 + /0 YV RXW RI + /0 YV RXW RI + /0 YV RXW RI

PAGE 240

EHWWHU VFRUHG RXW RI FRPSDUHG WR D PHDQ RI IRU WKH FRQWURO JURXS $QG RQ WKH :'6 WKH GLIIHUHQFH ZDV D PHDQ RI RXW RI IRU WKH VXEOLPLQDOV JURXS YHUVXV RQH RI IRU WKH FRQWUROV 1R LPSDFW RI VXEOLPLQDO FXHV RQ DXGLWRU\ DFXLW\ ZDV H[SHFWHG DW DOO DV QRQH KDV SUHYLRXVO\ EHHQ UHSRUWHG LQ WKH OLWHUDWXUH )XUWKHUPRUH WKH VWXG\ FRQIURQWHG PDQ\ XQFHUWDLQWLHV DQG GLIILFXOWLHV UHOHYDQW WR WKH WHFKQLFDO VSHFLILFDWLRQV RI WKH VXEOLPLQDO VWLPXOL WR EH SUHVHQWHG 7KXV WKH RFFXUUHQFH RI WKHVH GLIIHUHQFHV LV DQ LQWHUHVWLQJ ILQGLQJ DQG VXJJHVWV WKDW IXUWKHU LQYHVWLJDWLRQ PD\ EH ZDUUDQWHG :LWKLQVXEMHFWV FKDQJHV ZHUH VWURQJHU WKDQ EHWZHHQJURXS FKDQJHV DQG ZHUH VLJQLILFDQW LQ WKH 6 JURXS RQ WKUHH RI WKH IRXU DXGLWRU\ DFXLW\ YDULDEOHV 6'7 :'6 DQG :'6f 2YHUDOO WKH VWXG\ RXWFRPH VXJJHVWV WKDW VXEOLPLQDO HQFRXUDJHPHQW WR KHDU PRUH FOHDUO\ FDQ KDYH D VPDOO FOLQLFDO LPSDFW RQ LPPHGLDWH PHDVXUHPHQWV RI VSHHFK KHDULQJ VSHFLILFDOO\ ZLWK UHVSHFW WR VSHHFK GHWHFWLRQ WKUHVKROG ZRUG GLVFULPLQDWLRQ DW QHDU WKUHVKROG LQWHQVLW\ DQG ZRUG GLVFULPLQDWLRQ XQGHU PDVNHG FRQGLWLRQV 7KH VXEOLPLQDO WUHDWPHQW VHHPHG WR KDYH LWV VWURQJHVW LPSDFW UHODWLYH WR FRQWUROV RQ WKH EHKDYLRUDO YDULDEOHV FUHDWLQJ GLIIHUHQFHV ZKLFK UDQJHG IURP b EH\RQG FRQWURO OHYHOV ,Q DGGLWLRQ WR WKH WZR YDULDEOHV L/(*6 DQG L/22.f ZKLFK GHPRQVWUDWHG VLJQLILFDQW HIIHFWV RQ WKH VXEOLPLQDOVYVFRQWUROV SODQQHG FRPSDULVRQV D ODUJH

PAGE 241

GLIIHUHQFH LQ UDWH RI JUHHQ UHZDUG VHOHFWLRQ EHWZHHQ ERWK WKH 6 bf DQG WKH +6 bf JURXSV DQG WKH FRQWURO bf JURXS VKRZHG XS DV D VLJQLILFDQW WUHDWPHQW HIIHFW S f 2Q WKH RWKHU KDQG WKH PRVW XQVDWLVIDFWRU\ PHDVXUH RI UHVSRQVH WR VXEOLPLQDO FXHV ZDV WKH LQGLUHFW SRVWWHVW TXHVWLRQLQJ ZLWK RQO\ RQH RI WKH WKUHH W\SHV RI IRUFHGFKRLFH WHVWV \LHOGLQJ D VLJQLILFDQW LPSURYHPHQW RYHU FRQWUROV 7KLV ZDV 364 ZKHUH VXEMHFWV DWWHPSWHG WR FKRRVH VXEOLPLQDO FXHV IURP D SRWHQWLDO OLVW RI 2Q WKH SRVWVHVVLRQ TXHVWLRQQDLUH DV D ZKROH ZKLFK FRPELQHG DOO WKUHH LQGLUHFW PHWKRGV RI WHVWLQJf KRZHYHU WKH VXEOLPLQDOV JURXS VFRUHG DQ DYHUDJH RI SRLQW RU bf PRUH WKDQ FRQWUROV ZKLFK ZDV D VWDWLVWLFDOO\ VLJQLILFDQW PDUJLQ 7KXV WKH SUHVHQFH RI VXEOLPLQDO HIIHFWV LV FOHDUO\ VXSSRUWHG E\ WKH VWXG\ ILQGLQJV EXW DQ LPSDFW RI WKH PDJQLWXGH IRXQG LQ WKLV VWXG\ ZRXOG QRW EH VXIILFLHQW EDVLV IRU WKH XVH RI VXEOLPLQDOV LQ D WKHUDSHXWLF FRQWH[W $OO FXHV XVHG LQ WKLV VWXG\ ZHUH GHVLJQHG WR EH HPRWLRQDOO\ QHXWUDO KRZHYHU DQG HIIHFWV IRU HPRWLRQDOO\ FKDUJHG FXHV DUH JHQHUDOO\ VWURQJHU WKDQ WKRVH IRU QHXWUDO VWLPXOL 1LHGHQWKDO 6KHYULQ f $ IXUWKHU REVHUYDWLRQ SHUWDLQV WR WKH WKUHVKROG OHYHOV PHDVXUHG LQ WKH VWXG\ DQG WKHLU UHODWLRQVKLS WR WKH VXEOLPLQDO ZLQGRZ RU WKH UDQJH RI VRXQG LQWHQVLW\ DW ZKLFK VXEOLPLQDO FXHV FDQ EH UHFHLYHG 7KH DXGLRPHWHU XVHG LQ WKLV VWXG\ ZDV FDUHIXOO\ FDOLEUDWHG WR PLQLPL]H WKH GHJUHH RI PHDVXULQJ HUURU DQG WKH EDVHOLQH UHDGLQJV IRU 6'7 DQG 657

PAGE 242

IHOO DERXW G% DERYH WKRVH ZKLFK ZRXOG EH SUHGLFWHG IRU D SRSXODWLRQ RI WKLV DJH JURXS IURP WKH DXGLRPHWU\ OLWHUDWXUH 7KLV GLIIHUHQFH FDQ EH SDUWLDOO\ H[SODLQHG E\ WKH PHWKRG RI WHVWLQJ XVHG ZKLFK \LHOGHG PHDVXUHPHQWV ZKRVH DFFXUDF\ ZDV DSSUR[LPDWHG WR WKH FORVHVW G% 7KH PHWKRG XVHG LQ VWDQGDUGL]HG WHVWLQJ LQYROYHV LQGLYLGXDOL]LQJ WKH GHOLYHU\ RI VWHSZLVH VWLPXOL LQ VXFFHVVLYHO\ VPDOOHU LQFUHPHQWV DURXQG WKH DSSUR[LPDWH WKUHVKROG XQWLO WKH H[DFW YDOXH WR WKH FORVHVW G%f FDQ EH GHWHUPLQHG +RZHYHU SUDFWLFDO WLPH OLPLWDWLRQV DQG WKH QHHG IRU VWDQGDUGL]HG PHWKRGRORJ\ LQ WKLV VWXG\ OHG WR WKH GHFLVLRQ WR GHULYH DQ DSSUR[LPDWLRQ ZKLFK ZRXOG VHUYH WKH VWXG\n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f XVLQJ DQ DXGLRPHWULF SURFHGXUH IRU WHVWLQJ SHUFHSWLRQ WKURXJK G% ZKLWHQRLVH PDVNLQJ VLPLODU WR WKDW FKRVHQ IRU WKLV VWXG\ UHSRUWHG D PHDQ 6'7 IRU QHXWUDO VWLPXOL RI G% DQG D PHDQ 657 RI G% 7KH VXEOLPLQDO UDQJH PHDVXUHG LQ WKLV VWXG\

PAGE 243

VHHPV WR FRLQFLGH IDLUO\ ZHOO ZLWK WKLV HVWLPDWH )RU WKLV JURXS WKH PHDQ 657 IRU XQPDVNHG VWLPXOL UDQJHG IDLUO\ VWDEO\ DURXQG G% >6' a G%@ DFURVV WUHDWPHQW FRQGLWLRQV 7KH VWLPXOL ZHUH SUHVHQWHG DW DQ LQWHQVLW\ YHU\ QHDU WKH PHDQ 657 EXW PDVNHG LQ G% RI QRLVH $Q DYHUDJH RI PRQRV\OODELF ZRUGV ZHUH LGHQWLILDEOH DW G% ZLWKRXW WKH PDVNLQJ EXW DV D UXOH VXEMHFWV FRXOG QRW LGHQWLI\ DQ\ RI WKH PRQRV\OODELF ZRUGV LQ WKH PDVNHG FRQGLWLRQ 6RPH VSHHFKOLNH VRXQGV ZHUH SHULRGLFDOO\ DXGLEOH WR DERXW RI WKH VXEMHFWV WKURXJK WKH PDVNLQJ KRZHYHU UHQGHULQJ WKH VWLPXOXV VOLJKWO\ SHUFHSWLEOH DOWKRXJK QRW FRPSUHKHQVLEOH 6ZLQJOH f GHVFULEHV D GHDG ]RQH IRU SHUFHSWLRQ RI VXEOLPLQDO FXHV DURXQG G% EHORZ WKH FRQWHQW GLVFULPLQDWLRQ WKUHVKROG $OWKRXJK WKH VWLPXOXV ZDV WDUJHWHG IRU WKH WR G% UDQJH UHODWLYH WR FRQWHQW GLVFULPLQDWLRQ EHFDXVH LQWHQVLW\ RI WKH VWLPXOXV UHPDLQHG IL[HG ZKLOH WKH LQGLYLGXDO VXEMHFWnV WKUHVKROG YDULHG LW VHHPV SUREDEOH WKDW D PRUH FRPSOHWHO\ PDVNHG VWLPXOXV GHOLYHUHG DW D WDUJHW LQWHQVLW\ LQ WKH WR G% UDQJHf ZRXOG KDYH EHHQ PRUH HIIHFWLYH $OWHUQDWLYHO\ RI FRXUVH LQGLYLGXDOL]DWLRQ RI WKH LQWHQVLW\ RI WKH VWLPXOXV UHODWLYH WR VXEMHFWVn PHDVXUHG 657 OHYHO RU :'6 VFRUH ZRXOG EH H[SHFWHG WR \LHOG JUHDWHU VXEOLPLQDO HIIHFWV ,Q JHQHUDO VXEMHFWV LQ WKLV VWXG\ FRQVFLRXVO\ OLVWHQHG DQG GHWHFWHG PRUH DW WKH G% 61 OHYHO WKDQ ZDV LQWHQGHG RU SUHGLFWHG PRVW SUREDEO\ EHFDXVH WKH\ KDG EHHQ DWWXQHG WR FDUHIXO OLVWHQLQJ GXULQJ WKH DXGLWRU\ WHVWLQJ $SDUW IURP WKLV XQH[SHFWHG GHJUHH RI

PAGE 244

DZDUHQHVV RI SUHVHQFH RI D VWLPXOXV WKH HIIHFWV PHDVXUHG DUH JHQHUDOO\ FRQVLVWHQW ZLWK WKH SDUDPHWHUV IRU WKH VXEOLPLQDO ZLQGRZ VHW IRUWK E\ 6ZLQJOH f DQG %RUJHDW HW DO f IRU HIIHFWLYH VXEOLPLQDO SULPLQJ 6HYHUDO VLJQLILFDQW GHSDUWXUHV IURP WKH WHVWHG VXEOLPLQDO PHWKRGRORJ\ ZHUH XVHG LQ WKLV VWXG\ $V SUHYLRXVO\ GHVFULEHG LQ WKH OLWHUDWXUH UHYLHZ PRVW RI WKH HYLGHQFH LQ WKH VXEOLPLQDO OLWHUDWXUH SHUWDLQV WR VLQJOHZRUG FXHV %RUJHDW HW DO %RUQVWHLQ 'L[RQ f DOWKRXJK 6ZLQJOH f DQG 8UEDQ f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

PAGE 245

%HKDYLRUDO UHVSRQVHV ZHUH PRGHUDWHO\ VWURQJ ZLWK WKUHH RXW RI ILYH UHDFKLQJ VWDWLVWLFDO VLJQLILFDQFH DQG RQH RWKHU L3(1 S f FRPLQJ YHU\ FORVH WR VLJQLILFDQFH &RJQLWLYH UHVSRQVHV ZHUH DVVHVVHG WKURXJK WKH PLQXWH 3RVW6HVVLRQ 4XHVWLRQQDLUH LPPHGLDWHO\ IROORZLQJ WKH PLQXWH VXEOLPLQDO FXH SHULRG $OO LQGLUHFW FRJQLWLYH UHVSRQVHV ZHUH PHDVXUHG LQ D IRUFHGFKRLFH IRUPDW DV UHFRPPHQGHG E\ 0HULNOH f DQG 0HULNOH DQG 5HLQJROG f 6XEMHFWV ZHUH HQFRXUDJHG WR JXHVV DQG IROORZ KXQFKHV ZLWKRXW KDYLQJ D ORJLFDO UHDVRQ IRU WKH UHVSRQVH IROORZLQJ (DJOHnV f PRGHO IRU PD[LPL]LQJ VXEOLPLQDO UHVSRQVH 7KXV WKLV VWXG\ HYDOXDWHG D VRPHZKDW ORQJHUWHUP FRJQLWLYH UHVSRQVH WKDQ ZKDW KDV EHHQ HVWDEOLVKHG LQ WKH OLWHUDWXUH DQG WKH UHVSRQVH DVVHVVHG ZDV PRUH FRPSOH[ WKDQ WKH FXVWRPDU\ WRO FXHUHSO\ 7KH RQO\ VWDWLVWLFDOO\ VLJQLILFDQW FRJQLWLYH UHVSRQVH IRXQG 364f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

PAGE 246

VXEOLPLQDO PHUH H[SRVXUH UHVHDUFK LV UHODWLYHO\ ZHOO HVWDEOLVKHG (LFK %RUQVWHLQ .LKOVWURP %DUQKDUGW t 7DWDU\Q 0HULNOH t 5HLQJROG f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f 7KH K\SQRVLVVXEOLPLQDOV JURXS DOVR VKRZHG VLJQLILFDQW LPSURYHPHQWV FRPSDUHG ZLWK WKH FRQWURO JURXS LQ WKH VDPH WZR DXGLWRU\ DFXLW\ YDULDEOHV 6'7 DQG :'6f DQG WZR RXW RI ILYH SRVWWHVW PHDVXUHV 364$% DQG 364f 7KHLU RYHUDOO SRVWWHVW VFRUH ZDV QRW VLJQLILFDQWO\ KLJKHU WKDQ WKDW RI FRQWUROV 5HIHU DJDLQ WR 7DEOHV DQG IRU D VXPPDU\ RI WKHVH UHVXOWVf 7KXV FRQWUDU\ WR WKH H[SHFWDWLRQV RI WKH 3, DGGLQJ WKH K\SQRWLF VXJJHVWLRQV GRHV QRW DSSHDU WR KDYH SRWHQWLDWHG VXEOLPLQDO HIIHFWV EXW LQ IDFW PD\ KDYH DWWHQXDWHG RU FRQIRXQGHG WKHP WR VRPH GHJUHH (DJOH f KDG GHILQHG

PAGE 247

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

PAGE 248

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f :RUG GLVFULPLQDWLRQ XQGHU PDVNHG FRQGLWLRQV :'6f VKRZHG VPDOO EXW VLJQLILFDQW LQFUHPHQWV XQGHU ERWK WKH +6 DQG WKH 6 FRQGLWLRQV DQG D VPDOO GHFUHPHQW LQ WKH FRQWURO 6LJQLILFDQW ZLWKLQVXEMHFWV HIIHFWV ZHUH IRXQG LQ 6'7 DQG :'6 IRU ERWK WKH K\SQRWL]HG DQG WKH VXEOLPLQDOV RQO\ FRQGLWLRQV 2QH PLQRU FRQIRXQGLQJ IDFWRU LQ WKHVH REVHUYDWLRQV LV WKH IDFW WKDW WKH EDVHOLQH PHDQ IRU WKH +6 JURXS ZDV KLJKHU RQ WKH 6'7 WKDQ IRU DQ\ RWKHU JURXS DQG ORZHU RQ WKH :'6 DQG :'6 WKDQ IRU DQ\ RWKHU JURXS 5HIHU WR )LJXUHV WKURXJK f $V VWDWHG SUHYLRXVO\ WKHVH GLIIHUHQFHV ZHUH QRW VWDWLVWLFDOO\ VLJQLILFDQW DQG DUH QRW H[SODLQDEOH E\ DQ\WKLQJ RWKHU WKDQ FKDQFH VLQFH DVVLJQPHQW ZDV UDQGRP DQG WHVWLQJ ZDV GRQH ZLWKRXW NQRZLQJ ZKLFK JURXS WKH VXEMHFW ZRXOG EH DVVLJQHG WR 1HYHUWKHOHVV EDVHOLQH YDOXHV PD\ SOD\ VRPH SDUW LQ WKH VLJQLILFDQFH RI WKH ILQGLQJV ZLWK UHVSHFW WR 6'7 DQG :'6

PAGE 249

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f RQ VSHHFK DFXLW\ YDULDEOHV LV XQFOHDU EXW WKHUH LV VXIILFLHQW HYLGHQFH RI ERWK D ZLWKLQVXEMHFWV DQG D EHWZHHQJURXSV HIIHFW WR ZDUUDQW FRQWLQXHG LQYHVWLJDWLRQ ,I WKHUH LV DQ LPSDFW LW DSSHDUV WR EH VPDOO D IHZ G%f DQG LWV GXUDWLRQ EH\RQG D IHZ PLQXWHV LV VWLOO XQWHVWHG 2Q WKH EHKDYLRUDO YDULDEOHV WKH LPSDFW RI WKH K\SQRVLV SOXV VXEOLPLQDOV FRQGLWLRQ ZDV FOHDUO\ OHVV VLJQLILFDQW WKDQ WKDW RI WKH VXEOLPLQDO FXHV DORQH 7KH RQO\ HIIHFW ZKLFK UHDFKHG VLJQLILFDQFH ZDV WKH RYHUDOO WUHDWPHQW HIIHFW IRU FKRLFH RI JUHHQ UHZDUG DV UHSRUWHG SUHYLRXVO\f ZKHUH b RI WKH +6 JURXS FKRVH JUHHQ FRPSDUHG ZLWK b RI FRQWUROV 2Q WKH FKRLFH RI ERWK JUHHQ SHQ DQG RI JUHHQ UHZDUG WKH +6 JURXS PHDQV ZHUH KLJKHU WKDQ WKRVH RI WKH 6 JURXS DOWKRXJK QRW VLJQLILFDQWO\ VRf 2Q WKH RWKHU WKUHH EHKDYLRUDO YDULDEOHV L/(*6 L/(*60,1 DQG L/22.f WKH +6 JURXS WUHDWPHQW UHVSRQVH

PAGE 250

GLG QRW GLIIHU IURP FRQWUROV ZKHUHDV IRU L/(*6 DQG L/22. WKH 6 JURXS WUHDWPHQW UHVSRQVH GLG 2Q WKH FRJQLWLYH SRVWWHVW DVVHVVPHQW WKH +6 JURXS PHDQV IHOO EHORZ WKH 6 JURXS PHDQV RQ DOO YDULDEOHV 364 364$% 364 364 DQG WKH WRWDO VFRUH 364727$/f DOWKRXJK LQGLYLGXDOO\ WKH GLIIHUHQFHV ZHUH VWDWLVWLFDOO\ LQVLJQLILFDQW 2Q WKH RYHUDOO SRVWWHVW VFRUH WKH +6 JURXS GLG QRW VFRUH VLJQLILFDQWO\ EHWWHU WKDQ FRQWUROV ZKHUHDV WKH 6 JURXS GLG 7KH RQO\ LQGLUHFW PHDVXUH RQ ZKLFK WKH +6 JURXS VFRUHG EHWWHU WKDQ FRQWUROV DQG VR GLG WKH 6 JURXSf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f 7KH ILQGLQJ GRHV QRW FODULI\ KRZ WKH YDULDQFH LV DSSRUWLRQHG DPRQJ WKH FRQGLWLRQV LW VLPSO\ LQGLFDWHV WKDW VLJQLILFDQW GLIIHUHQFHV H[LVW VRPHZKHUH DPRQJ WKH WKUHH FRQGLWLRQV +RZHYHU H[DPLQDWLRQ RI WKH WUHDWPHQW JURXS PHDQV FRUURERUDWHV

PAGE 251

WKH IDFW WKDW WKH JURXSV H[SRVHG WR VXEOLPLQDO FXHV GLIIHUHG IURP WKH FRQWURO RQ PDQ\ YDULDEOHV 7KLV RYHUDOO WUHDWPHQW HIIHFW UHDFKHG VLJQLILFDQFH RQ WZR RI WKH DXGLWRU\ DFXLW\ YDULDEOHV 6'7 DQG :'6f WZR RI WKH EHKDYLRUDO YDULDEOHV L5(:$5' DQG L/(*6f DQG WZR RI WKH FRJQLWLYH YDULDEOHV 364$% DQG 364f 7KH RQO\ YDULDEOH ZKLFK GHPRQVWUDWHG D WUHDWPHQW HIIHFW ZKLOH QHLWKHU WKH +6 RU WKH 6 JURXS VKRZHG D VSHFLILF GLIIHUHQFH LQ FRQWUDVW ZLWK WKH FRQWURO ZDV FKRLFH RI JUHHQ UHZDUG L5(:$5'f )RXU RI WKH EHKDYLRUDO YDULDEOHV L3(1 S L5(:$5' S L/(*6 S L/22. S f GHPRQVWUDWHG VLJQLILFDQW WUHDWPHQW HIIHFWV RQFH FROODSVHG VXVFHSWLELOLW\ OHYHO ZDV DGGHG WR WKH PRGHO 7ZR RI WKHVH YDULDEOHV L3(1 DQG L/22.f KDG VKRZQ PDUJLQDOO\ LQVLJQLILFDQW WUHDWPHQW HIIHFWV ZKHQ WHVWHG IRU WUHDWPHQW GLIIHUHQFHV DORQH 7KXV WKH JHQHUDO SLFWXUH SUHVHQWHG E\ WKH GDWD LV WKDW VRPH VWDWLVWLFDOO\ VLJQLILFDQW WUHDWPHQW HIIHFWV DSSHDUHG RQ WKH PDMRULW\ RI WKH YDULDEOHV WHVWHG &RQWUDU\ WR WKH JHQHUDO K\SRWKHVLV RI WKH VWXG\ WKHUH ZDV QR VLJQLILFDQW LPSURYHPHQW LQ UHVSRQVH WR VXEOLPLQDO PHVVDJHV DWWULEXWDEOH WR WKH K\SQRWLF LQGXFWLRQ DQG VXJJHVWLRQV 2YHUDOO WKH UHVSRQVH WR VXEOLPLQDO FXHV DORQH PDUJLQDOO\ VXUSDVVHG WKDW WR WKH FRPELQHG K\SQRWLFVXEOLPLQDO WUHDWPHQW DOWKRXJK RQ 6'7 DORQH WKLV VLWXDWLRQ ZDV UHYHUVHG 5HDVRQV IRU WKLV VOLJKW GLPLQXWLRQ LQ HIIHFW ZLWK K\SQRVLV DUH QRW UHDGLO\ DSSDUHQW ,W FRXOG EH VSXULRXV EXW PLJKW EH UHODWHG WR GHHSHQHG

PAGE 252

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n IHDUV RI ORVV RI FRQWURO XQGHU K\SQRVLV FRUUHFW DQ\ PLVFRQFHSWLRQV DQG HQKDQFH WKHLU PRWLYDWLRQ WR H[SORUH WKHLU FDSDFLW\ IRU K\SQRWLF H[SHULHQFH +RZHYHU LW VHHPV SUREDEOH JLYHQ SUHYLRXV VLPLODU ILQGLQJV LQ WKH OLWHUDWXUH &URQLQ 6SDQRV t %DUEHU %DWHV t %ULJKDP f WKDW RQH XQIRUWXQDWH HIIHFW RI WKLV LQWHUYHQWLRQ ZDV WR FULWLFDOO\ UHGXFH WKH QXPEHU UHVSRQGLQJ LQ WKH ORZ VXVFHSWLEOH UDQJH RQ WKH LPPHGLDWHO\ VXFFHHGLQJ +*6+6$

PAGE 253

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f PDLQ HIIHFW IRU VXVFHSWLELOLW\ LQ WKH RYHUDOO SRVWWHVW UHVSRQVH ZLWK VXEMHFWV LQ WKH KLJK VXVFHSWLELOLW\ JURXS VFRULQJ VLJQLILFDQWO\ KLJKHU WKDQ WKRVH LQ WKH ORZPHGLXP UDQJH 7KHUH ZDV DOVR D VSHFLILF GLIIHUHQFH EHWZHHQ FROODSVHG VXVFHSWLELOLW\ OHYHOV KLJK ORZPHGLXPf UHJLVWHUHG LQ WKH VXEOLPLQDOVRQO\ JURXS RQ WKH 364727$/ VFRUH

PAGE 254

2Q 364 WKH LGHQWLILFDWLRQ RI VXEOLPLQDO SULPHV IURP D OLVW WKHUH ZDV DOVR D PRGHUDWHO\ VWURQJ S f PDLQ HIIHFW IRU FROODSVHG VXVFHSWLELOLW\ JURXS ZLWK KLJK VXVFHSWLELOLW\ OHYHO VXEMHFWV DJDLQ VFRULQJ DERYH WKRVH LQ WKH ORZPHGLXP OHYHO $ VSHFLILF HIIHFW ZDV SUHVHQW LQ WKH FRQWURO JURXS GXH WR WKH IDFW WKDW VXEMHFWV LQ WKH ORZPHGLXP VXVFHSWLELOLW\ JURXS VFRUHG PXFK ORZHU f WKDQ WKRVH LQ WKH KLJK JURXS RU DQ\ RI WKH RWKHU ORZPHGLXP RU KLJK VXEJURXSV DOO WR f 7KLV ORZHU VFRUH IRU WKH ORZPHGLXP FRQWUROV LV GLIILFXOW WR H[SODLQ DQG LV QRW UHSHDWHG RQ DQ\ RI WKH RWKHU PHDVXUHV 2Q 364 WKH WHVW RI UHVSRQVH WR FRPSRXQGZRUG SULPHV D VSHFLILF GLIIHUHQFH EHWZHHQ FROODSVHG VXVFHSWLELOLW\ OHYHOV KLJK ORZPHGLXPf ZDV IRXQG LQ WKH VXEOLPLQDOVRQO\ JURXS DOVR +HQFH VRPH VXVFHSWLELOLW\ HIIHFWV ZHUH VXIILFLHQWO\ VWURQJ WR SDVV VWDWLVWLFDO WHVWV GHVSLWH WKH DEVHQFH RI GDWD RQ WKH ORZ VXVFHSWLELOLW\ JURXS EXW WKH QRQXQLIRUP GLUHFWLRQDOLW\ RI WKHVH HIIHFWV UDLVHV TXHVWLRQV DERXW WKHLU PHDQLQJ 2Q WKH FRJQLWLYH PHDVXUHV KLJK VXVFHSWLELOLW\ OHYHO VXEMHFWV FRUUHFWO\ LGHQWLILHG PRUH VXEOLPLQDO FXHV WKDQ WKRVH LQ WKH ORZPHGLXP JURXS RQ DOO WHVWV ZKLFK UHDFKHG VLJQLILFDQFH 7KLV JHQHUDO WUHQG KLJK ORZPHGLXPf LV FDUULHG RXW WKURXJKRXW WKH 364 PHDVXUHV DV FDQ EH VHHQ RQ )LJXUHV DQG f EXW WKH IDFW WKDW LW LV SUHVHQW DOVR LQ WKH FRQWURO JURXS PDNHV LWV UHODWLRQVKLS WR WKH VXEOLPLQDO FXHV OHVV FOHDU 2Q WKH EHKDYLRUDO YDULDEOH L3(1

PAGE 255

VXEMHFWV RI ORZPHGLXP VXVFHSWLELOLW\ OHYHO FKRVH WKH VXJJHVWHG JUHHQ SHQ PRUH IUHTXHQWO\ WKDQ WKRVH LQ WKH KLJK JURXS $ UHYLHZ RI WKH VXEJURXS PHDQV RQ WKH RWKHU EHKDYLRUDO YDULDEOHV DV LOOXVWUDWHG LQ )LJXUHV WR f UHYHDOV QR FRQVLVWHQW UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ KLJK DQG ORZPHGLXP VXVFHSWLELOLW\ OHYHO VXEMHFWV LQ WKH PDQLIHVWDWLRQ RI WKHVH EHKDYLRUV 7KXV RQ WKH EDVLV RI WKH GDWD LW LV GLIILFXOW WR PDNH DQ\ GHILQLWH VWDWHPHQW DERXW WKH UHODWLRQVKLS RI VXVFHSWLELOLW\ OHYHO DQG UHVSRQVH WR VXEOLPLQDO FXHV 7KLV TXHVWLRQ ZLOO KDYH WR EH SRVHG DJDLQ LQ D IXWXUH VWXG\ 7KH IDFW WKDW DOO WKUHH VXEMHFWV ZKR FRUUHFWO\ LGHQWLILHG D VXEOLPLQDO PHVVDJH ZHUH IURP WKH VPDOO JURXS RI ORZ VXVFHSWLEOHV RXW RI VXEMHFWVf DOVR VXJJHVWV WKDW DQ LQWHUHVWLQJ VXEMHFW RI VWXG\ PLJKW EH WR H[SORUH WKH FDSDFLW\ RI ORZ VXVFHSWLEOHV WR GHWHFW VXEOLPLQDO DXGLWRU\ PHVVDJHV :LWK UHVSHFW WR WKH UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ WKH +*6+6$ DQG /666 VFRUHV PHDQ +*6+6$ RQ D VFDOH RI f ZDV KLJKHU WKDQ WKH DYHUDJH RI WKH WZR /666 VFRUHV WDNHQ LQ VHVVLRQ RQH RQ D VFDOH RI f 6LQFH ERWK RI WKHVH DUH VXEMHFWLYH PHDVXUHV WKLV UHODWLRQVKLS FRUURERUDWHV UHVHDUFK VXJJHVWLQJ WKDW LQGLYLGXDOV PD\ EH DEOH WR DFFRPSOLVK D PRGHUDWHO\ KLJK SHUFHQWDJH RI K\SQRWLF WDVNV ZKLOH IHHOLQJ WKDW WKH\ DUH LQ D OLJKW WR PRGHUDWH WUDQFH +LOJDUG f

PAGE 256

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f WKDW DOWKRXJK WKH PRWLYDWLRQ WR ILQG DQRWKHU RU PRUH ORZV ZDV JUHDW LW ZDV QRW SRVVLEOH ZLWKLQ WKH WLPH IUDPH DQG H[SHQVH OLPLWV RI WKH VWXG\ $ GLVVHUWDWLRQ VWXG\ GRQH ZLWK WKH VXEMHFW SRRO SRSXODWLRQ DW WKLV XQLYHUVLW\ XVLQJ WKH +*6+6$ DIWHU D VLPLODU LQWURGXFWRU\ WDON DERXW K\SQRVLV DOVR IRXQG RQO\ b RI WKH VXEMHFWV WR VFRUH LQ WKH ORZ VXVFHSWLELOLW\ UDQJH 6WDQJHU f 7KH WDON ZKLFK SODFHG K\SQRVLV LQ WKH FRQWH[W RI DQ LQWHUDFWLYH UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ K\SQRWLVW DQG VXEMHFW HPSKDVL]HG WKH LPSRUWDQFH RI WKH FUHDWLYH UROH RI WKH VXEMHFW DQG HQFRXUDJHG VWXGHQWV WR H[SORUH WKH OLPLWV RI WKHLU FDSDFLW\ WR UHVSRQG WR K\SQRVLV 7KLV W\SH RI SHUPLVVLYH FRQWH[W PD\ KDYH LQDGYHUWHQWO\ OHG WR VHOIUHSRUW RI D JUHDWHU QXPEHU RI K\SQRWLF H[SHULHQFHV ZKLFK PHW WKH SDVV FULWHULD RQ WKH +6*+6$ DV VXJJHVWHG E\ &URQLQ 6SDQRV t %DUEHU f :KDWHYHU WKH UHDVRQ WKH SDXFLW\ RI GDWD RQ ORZ K\SQRWL]DEOH VXEMHFWV JUHDWO\ OLPLWHG

PAGE 257

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nV ILUVW YHQWXUH LQ WKH ILHOG DQG PXFK KDV EHHQ OHDUQHG LQ WKH SURFHVV 7KH RULJLQDO &' UHFRUGLQJV RI WKH DXGLWRU\ WHVWLQJ DQG VXEOLPLQDO FXHV GHYLDWHG VHULRXVO\ IURP VSHFLILFDWLRQV PRVW SUREDEO\ GXH WR WKH IDFW WKDW PDNLQJ VXEOLPLQDO UHFRUGLQJV ZDV D QHZ H[SHULHQFH IRU WKH VRXQG WHFKQLFLDQV WRR $OWKRXJK WKH VWXGLR FDUHIXOO\ UHPDGH WKH UHFRUGLQJV DQG VWRRG EHKLQG WKHLU DFFXUDF\ WKH DEVHQFH RI H[WHUQDO FRUURERUDWLRQ RI WKH SDUDPHWHUV RI WKH VWLPXOL RWKHU WKDQ WKDW SURYLGHG E\ WKH UDQJH RI WKH VWXG\ ILQGLQJV FUHDWHG D PHDVXUH RI XQFHUWDLQW\ DQG QR VRXUFH RI H[WHUQDO YDOLGDWLRQ ZDV UHDGLO\ DYDLODEOH ORFDOO\ (YHQ WKRXJK %RUJHDW HW DO f UHSRUWHG WKDW VRPH VRXQGV ZHUH DXGLEOH LQ WKHLU

PAGE 258

VWXGLHV JLYHQ WKDW VRPH VXEMHFWV KHDUG VSHHFK VRXQGV WKURXJK WKH PDVNLQJ D FRPSOHWH DXGLRPHWULF DQDO\VLV RI DOO FXHV RQ WKH DXGLWRU\ UHFRUGLQJV RWKHU WKDQ WKH WHVWV SURYLGHG E\ WKH VRXQG VWXGLR DQG WKH DXGLRPHWHUf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

PAGE 259

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

PAGE 260

VWXG\ 7KH PDLQ SDVVDJH RI VXEOLPLQDO FXHV ODVWHG DERXW PLQXWHV DQG FXHV ZHUH SUHVHQWHG VORZO\ LQ YDULHG XQUHODWHG RUGHU DERXW WLPHV HDFK $ WRWDO RI FRPSRXQGZRUG FXHV DQG SKUDVH RU VKRUWVHQWHQFH FXHV ZHUH SUHVHQWHG ZHUH EHKDYLRUDO VXJJHVWLRQV DQG ZHUH SXUHO\ FRJQLWLYH 7KH TXHVWLRQ RI KRZ PDQ\ WLPHV D FXH VKRXOG EH UHSHDWHG IRU EHVW UHFHSWLRQ KDV QHYHU EHHQ DQVZHUHG %DVHG RQ WKH SUHVHQFH RI D VPDOO VXEOLPLQDO HIIHFW RQ VRPH RI WKH PHDVXUHV LW DSSHDUV SRVVLEOH WKDW JLYLQJ D JUHDWHU QXPEHU RI FXHV LQ RQH VSHFLILF FDWHJRU\ PLJKW SURYLGH D EHWWHU PHDVXUHPHQW 7KXV LQ IXWXUH UHVHDUFK LW PLJKW EH SUHIHUDEOH WR IRFXV RQ RQH W\SH RI FXH SHU VWXG\ DQG UHSHDW WKH FXHV PRUH WLPHV RYHU WKH PLQXWH SHULRG 7KLV ZRXOG WKHRUHWLFDOO\ EH PRUH SDUDOOHO WR WKH W\SH RI VXEOLPLQDO FXH IRUPDW XVHG LQ VXEOLPLQDO WDSHV IRU FOLQLFDO XVH DOVR 7HVWV ZLWK HPRWLRQDOO\ UHOHYDQW FXHV SHUKDSV JURXSHG DURXQG D VLQJOH WRSLF ZRXOG DOVR SURYLGH XVHIXO LQIRUPDWLRQ WUDQVODWDEOH WR FOLQLFDO FRQWH[WV ,Q YLHZ RI WKH VWXG\nV LQWHQWLRQ WR DVVXUH WKDW WKH VXEOLPLQDO PHVVDJHV FRPPXQLFDWHG ZLWK WKH XQFRQVFLRXV SRUWLRQ RI WKH PLQG WKH IDFW WKDW PDQ\ VXEMHFWV KHDUG VRPH VRXQGV WKURXJK WKH PDVNLQJ PXVW DOVR EH YLHZHG DV D OLDELOLW\ 7KH SUHVHQFH RI D SRVLWLYH UHVSRQVH WR GLUHFW TXHVWLRQV DERXW WKH SUHVHQFH RI VXEOLPLQDO FXHV DOVR QXOOLILHG WKH HIIHFWLYHQHVV RI WKH LQWHQGHG PRGHO IRU YHULI\LQJ QRQFRQVFLRXV SHUFHSWLRQ SURSRVHG E\ 0HULNOH DQG 5HLQJROG f LQ ZKLFK VXEOLPLQDO SHUFHSWLRQ LV VDLG WR RFFXU LI UHVSRQVH WR LQGLUHFW

PAGE 261

TXHVWLRQLQJ LV JUHDWHU WKDQ FKDQFH ZKLOH UHVSRQVH WR GLUHFW TXHVWLRQLQJ LV QR EHWWHU WKDQ FKDQFH &RPSDULVRQ ZLWK WKH FRQWURO JURXS UHVSRQVH ZDV WKHUHIRUH XVHG LQVWHDG /LVWHQLQJ WR QRWKLQJ EXW QRLVH PD\ EH ERULQJ EXW LQ RUGHU WR HQVXUH WKDW WKH FXHV DUH UHFHLYHG FRPSOHWHO\ XQFRQVFLRXVO\ DV WKH PRGHO UHTXLUHVf UDWKHU WKDQ WKURXJK FRQVFLRXV OLVWHQLQJ FRPSOHWH PDVNLQJ LV HVVHQWLDO 7KHUHIRUH LW DSSHDUV WKDW D VOLJKWO\ VRIWHU FXH a G%f DQGRU VOLJKWO\ ORXGHU PDVNLQJ a G%f PLJKW EH D PRUH DSSURSULDWH VWLPXOXVWRPDVNLQJ UDQJH )XUWKHU VWXGLHV FRPSDULQJ GLIIHUHQW UDWLRV RI FXHWRn PDVNLQJ VWLPXOL DUH QHHGHG LQ RUGHU WR FODULI\ WKLV NH\ LVVXH LQ VXEOLPLQDO UHVHDUFK $GGLWLRQDOO\ VWXGLHV LQ ZKLFK VWLPXOL DUH SUHVHQWHG DW OHYHOV ZKLFK YDU\ DFFRUGLQJ WR WKH VXEMHFWnV PHDVXUHG WKUHVKROGV ZRXOG EH KHOSIXO LQ IXUWKHU HOXFLGDWLQJ WKH LVVXH RI ZKDW LV WKH PD[LPDOO\ HIIHFWLYH VXEOLPLQDO UDQJH ,W DSSHDUV IURP WKH RXWFRPH GDWD WKDW D IRUPDW IRU SRVWn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

PAGE 262

DSSOLFDELOLW\ RI VXEOLPLQDO SULPLQJ WR UHDOLVWLF FOLQLFDO VLWXDWLRQV FDQ EH GHWHUPLQHG 2QH IXQGDPHQWDO VWDWLVWLFDO LVVXH PXVW EH FRQVLGHUHG LQ UHYLHZLQJ WKH VWXG\ ILQGLQJV DV UHSRUWHG LQ WKLV GRFXPHQW 7KH DOSKD SDUDPHWHU XVHG WR GHILQH VLJQLILFDQFH RQ WKH VWDWLVWLFDO PHDVXUHV ZDV S +RZHYHU ZKHQ D ODUJH QXPEHU RI WHVWV DUH GRQH RQ D VDPSOH SRSXODWLRQ WKH SUREDELOLW\ RI HUURU RQ DQ\ RQH RI WKH WHVWV LV JUHDWHU WKDQ WKH PHDVXUHG DOSKD IRU WKH WHVW ZKHQ UXQ LWVHOI &RPPRQO\ WKLV IDFWRU PD\ EH FRPSHQVDWHG IRU E\ UHVWULFWLQJ WKH DOSKD SDUDPHWHUV IXUWKHU XVLQJ IRU H[DPSOH S DV WKH WHVW IRU VLJQLILFDQFH 7KLV ZDV QRW GRQH LQ WKH FXUUHQW VWXG\ DQG WKHUHIRUH WKH JUHDWHU IDPLO\ZLVH SUREDELOLW\ RI DQ HUURU LQ VRPH RI WKH UHVXOWV UHSRUWHG PXVW EH WDNHQ LQWR FRQVLGHUDWLRQ ZKHQ HYDOXDWLQJ WKH ILQGLQJV $QRWKHU HIIHFWLYH DSSURDFK ZRXOG EH WR XVH D PXOWLYDULDWH DQDO\WLF GHVLJQ )LQDOO\ WKH XVH RI WKH XQLYHUVLW\ SV\FKRORJ\ VXEMHFW SRRO SRSXODWLRQ SUHVHQWV D OLPLWDWLRQ LQ WKH JHQHUDOL]DELOLW\ RI VWXG\ UHVXOWV WR PRUH GLYHUVH SRSXODWLRQ JURXSV 7KHUHIRUH VWXGLHV ZLWK RWKHU SRSXODWLRQV DQG ZLWK FOLQLFDO JURXSV DUH D QHFHVVDU\ HYHQWXDO VWHS LQ WKH WHVWLQJ RI WKLV PRGHO &RQFOXVLRQV *LYHQ WKH UHODWLYHO\ XQWHVWHG IRUP RI GHOLYHU\ RI VXEOLPLQDO DXGLWRU\ FXHV DQG WKH FROOHFWLYH SRVWVHVVLRQ IRUP RI UHVSRQVH PHDVXUHPHQW FKRVHQ WKH VWUHQJWK DQG EUHDGWK RI

PAGE 263

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nV VXEOLPLQDO ZLQGRZ 0HDVXUHPHQW RI EHKDYLRUDO UHVSRQVH RFFXUUHG GXULQJ WKH OLVWHQLQJ SHULRG IRU VRPH EHKDYLRUDO FULWHULDf DQG LQ WKH SRVWVHVVLRQ DVVHVVPHQW SHULRG IRU RWKHU EHKDYLRUDO FULWHULD DQG WKH FRJQLWLYH FULWHULDf 0RVW RI WKH SXEOLVKHG UHVHDUFK RQ VXEOLPLQDO UHVSRQVH LV GRQH ZLWK VLQJOHZRUG VWLPXOL DQG UHVSRQVHV PHDVXUHG LQ D FXHUHVSRQVH IRUPDW ZKLFK WHVWV LPPHGLDWH HIIHFWV RI RQH VLPSOH VWLPXOXV 7KLV W\SH RI DVVHVVPHQW LV SUREDEO\ FRQGXFLYH WR WKH VWURQJHVW PHDVXUHPHQW RI UHVSRQVH DQG DSSOLHV WR FOLQLFDO PRGHOV VXFK DV WKDW RI 63$ )RU WKH XVH RI UHFRUGLQJV LQ WKHUDS\ KRZHYHU D PRUH UHOHYDQW JXHVWLRQ LV nKRZ ORQJ GR HIIHFWV ODVW"n 7KLV VWXG\ SURYLGHV RQH PRUH SLHFH RI HYLGHQFH WKDW VRPH HIIHFWV DUH UHWDLQHG RYHU D SHULRG RI PLQXWHV HYHQ ZKHQ WKH VWLPXOL DUH XQUHODWHG LQ PHDQLQJ DQG RI QHXWUDO YDOXH

PAGE 264

6R PDQ\ TXHVWLRQV UHPDLQ ZLWK UHVSHFW WR PRGHV RI FRPPXQLFDWLRQ ZLWK WKH QRQFRQVFLRXV PLQG 7KH FKDOOHQJHV PHW LQ FRQGXFWLQJ WKLV VWXG\ XQGHUVFRUH WKH IDFW UHFRJQL]HG E\ )UHXG DQG -DPHV \HDUV DJR WKDW ERWK K\SQRVLV DQG VXEOLPLQDO SHUFHSWLRQ DUH H[FHHGLQJO\ FRPSOH[ DQG VXEWOH LVVXHV IRU UHVHDUFK DQDO\VLV +RZ WR UHJDUG WKHP LV WKH TXHVWLRQ SRVHG VR DSWO\ E\ -DPHV >@ S f %HIRUH GHILQLWH DQVZHUV FDQ EH IRXQG WLPH PXVW EH VSHQW LQ WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI VXIILFLHQW H[SHUWLVH WR HQDEOH UHVHDUFKHUV WR FROOHFW GDWD ZKLFK LV YDOLG DFFXUDWH DQG IRFXVHG RQ UHOHYDQW LVVXHV 8UEDQnV f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f FXHV KDV D

PAGE 265

VLPLODUO\ YDOLG WKHRUHWLFDO EDVLV SDUWLFXODUO\ UHOHYDQW WR VWXGLHV RI XQFRQVFLRXV DQG H[WUDVHQVRU\ SKHQRPHQD DQG GHPDQGV H[SORUDWLRQ 7KLV VWXG\ DFFRPSOLVKHG WKH SXUSRVH RI EULQJLQJ VXFK LVVXHV LQWR UHVHDUFK IRFXV ,W DOVR SURYLGHG DGGLWLRQDO GDWD IRU WKH JURZLQJ SRRO ZKLFK ZLOO VRPHGD\ SURYLGH DQVZHUV WR JXHVWLRQV DERXW WKHVH WZR PRGHV RI QRQFRQVFLRXV PRWLYDWLRQ $V VXFK LW PD\ DOVR UHSUHVHQW RQH VPDOO UHSO\ WR *UHHQZDOGnV f WZRZRUG FKDOOHQJH WR WKH FDSDFLW\ RI WKH XQFRQVFLRXV PLQG

PAGE 266

7 ),50 $33(1',; $ )52-(&7 '(6&5,37,21 $1' ,1)250(' P WGL t
PAGE 267

$33(1',; % (5(,1((.92LO7&1 48(67,211$,5( 3OHDVH DQVZHU
PAGE 268

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

PAGE 269

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

PAGE 270

5(0(0%(5 3/($6( '2 127 /($9( $1< %/$1.6 6HOHFW D SOD\LQJ FDUG IURP DPRQJ WKH OLVW EHORZ &LUFOH \RXU UHVSRQVHf D-DFN RI 6SDGHV E $FH RI &OXEV F $FH RI 'LDPRQGV ,I \RX ZHUH WROG D VWRU\ DERXW D PDQ QDPHG %LOO ZKLFK RI WKH IROORZLQJ GR \RX LPDJLQH WKDW WKH VWRU\ PLJKW WHOO DERXW" &LUFOH \RXU UHVSRQVHf D ZK\ %LOO VWROH WKH PRQH\ E KHZ %LOO ZRQ WKH 6WDWH GLYLQJ FRQWHVW F ZK\ %LOO ZHQW WR 0H[LFR ,I \RX KHDUG D VWRU\ DERXW DQ LQGLYLGXDO ZKR PDGH D KLJKO\ SRSXODU DQG VXFFHVVIXO PD\RU ZKLFK SHUVRQ GR \RX WKLQN WKH VWRU\ LV OLNHO\ WR EH DERXW" &LUFOH \RXU UHVSRQVHf D $OEHUW %UFZQ E 3KLO $EUDPV F 'DYLG &URIW SOHDVDQW"
PAGE 271

5(0(0%(5 3/($6( '2 127 /($9( $1< %/$1.6 &RPSOHWH WKH IROORZLQJ FRPSRXQG ZRUGV E\ FKRRVLQJ RQH RI WKH WZR VXJJHVWHG HQGLQJV &LUFOH \RXU FKRLFH )RU H[DPSOH EODFN ERDUG EODFN ERDUGf D 0,/. %277/( RU 0,/. 0$1 E 526( *$5'(1 RU 526( %86+ F /81&+ %2; RU /81&+ 7,0( G +286( :,)( RU +286( +2/' H 5$,1 &2$7 RU 5$,1 %2: I +($57 $77$&. RU +($57 %($7 J %22. 0$5. RU %22. &$6( K %(' 5220 RU %(' 635($' f O ),6+ +22. RU ),6+ %2:/ f L 02725 &<&/( RU 02725 %2$7 3OHDVH OLVW DQ\ WKRXJKWV RU SHUFHSWLRQV ZKLFK FDPH LQWR \RXU PLQG GXULQJ WKH WLPH \RX ZHUH OLVWHQLQJ WR WKH VHFRQG WDSH D 'R \RX WKLQN WKHUH ZHUH VXEOLPLQDO PHVVDJHV RQ WKH WDSH \RX KHDUG" <(6 12 3OHDVH H[SODLQ ZK\ \RX DQVZHUHG DV \RX GLG WR TXHVWLRQ Df E 'LG \RX KHDU DQ\ VXEOLPLQDO PHVVDJHV" <(6 12

PAGE 272

364 5(0(0%(5 3/($6( '2 127 /($9( $1< %/$1.6 $IWHU UHDGLQJ WKH SKUDVHV EHORZ PDUN ZKLFK PD\ KDYH FRPH LQWR \RXU PLQG GXULQJ WKH WDSH 0DNH VXUH WR FKRRVH HYHQ LI \RX KDYH WR JXHVVf 7KH VXQ LV KRW &KRRVH JUHHQ 6FKRRO LV RXW $OEHUW %URZQ LV D JRRG FDQGLGDWH 7KH 4XHHQ RI KHDUWV ZRQ WKH JDPH 7RGD\ LV 6XQGD\ %LOO WRRN D WULS WR 0H[LFR 7KLV LV QLFH DQG HDV\ 5LFN DQG 6XVDQ JRW PDUULHG /RRN EHKLQG \RX 6QDS \RXU ILQJHUV ,WnV WKH $FH RI GLDPRQGV
PAGE 273

$33(1',; ( %(+$9,25$/ 2%6(59$7,21 )250 %2) %$6(/,1( &2/25 &+2,&( 3HQFLO (;3(5,0(17$/ &21',7,21 3HQFLO 5HZDUG /(* &5266,1* 7LPHV 7LPHV 0LQXWHV 0LQXWHV /22.,1* %(+,1' 7LPHV 7LPHV L/666$6 L/666$6 59(5 &200(176

PAGE 274

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
PAGE 275

7KH H[SHULHQFH \RX MXVW KDG SUREDEO\ GRHV QRW UHSUHVHQW \RXU IXOO FDSDFLW\ IRU K\SQRWLF UHVSRQVH 3UDFWLFH VHOIGHWHUPLQDWLRQ DQG FRPIRUW IDFLOLWDWH VXFFHVVIXO K\SQRWLF H[SHULHQFH ,I \RX ZDQW WR XVH K\SQRVLV IRU \RXU RZQ SXUSRVHV DW VRPH IXWXUH WLPH \RX FDQ SUREDEO\ EHFRPH VLJQLILFDQWO\ PRUH VNLOOIXO DW LW
PAGE 276

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
PAGE 277


PAGE 278

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f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
PAGE 279

FROOHFWLRQ LV RFQSOHWH LQ 'HFHPEHUf NQRZOHGJH RI H[SHULPHQWDO K\SRWKHVHV FDQ LQYDOLGDWH WKH GDWD +RZHYHU LI \RX ZDQW WR GLVFXVV DQ\ H[SHULHQFHV RU TXHVWLRQV FRQFHUQLQJ WKH VWXG\ ZLWK PH SOHDVH FRQWDFW PH %\ FROODERUDWLQJ LQ WKLV SURMHFW KRSH \RX KDYH OHDUQHG VRPHWKLQJ XVHIXO
PAGE 280

$33(1',; +<3126,6 '(%5,(),1* 6&5,37 6(66,21 21( 21/
PAGE 281

$33(1',; + 68%-(&7 9$5,$%/( 6:0$(< )250 ,' $*( 6(; +$1'('1(66 35,25 +<3126,6 *5283 +*6+6U$ E/666 /666$6 E6'7 E657 L6'7 L657 E:'6 G%f E:'6 :'6 G%f L:'6 E3(1&'/25 H3(1&2/25 5(:$5' E/(*6 H/(*6 K/42. H/22. 364 G% 61f G% 61f 364 364 364 364 364D 364E 364

PAGE 282

$33(1',; $8',7(& RI 6W /RXLV DYRZDO ( :25' /,676 &,' :O )RUP $ 6'7 'HWHUPLQDWLRQf )RUP % 657 'HWHUPLQDWLRQf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

PAGE 283

02126
PAGE 284

$33(1',; 7+( /21* 67$1)25' 67$7( 6&$/( 2) +<3127,& '(37+ 'XULQJ \RXU H[SHULHQFH RI K\SQRVLV ZLOO EH LQWHUHVWHG LQ MXVW KRZ K\SQRWL]HG \RX KDYH EHFRPH GXULQJ WKH SUHVHQW LQGXFWLRQ
PAGE 285

$33(1',; $8',725< 7(67,1* 5@ PYL Z )250 %$6(/,1( 7(67,1* &,' :O )RUP $ 6'7 'HWHUPLQDWLRQ 3OD\JURXQG f 'D\EUHDN f 1RUWKZHVW f 0XVKURRP f 'RRUPDW f (DUGUXP f ,FHEHUJ f 3DGORFN f 6XQVHW f 'XFNSRQG f &RZER\ f ,QNZHOO f %DVHEDOO f :KLWHZDVK f 2DWPHDO f *UH\KRXQG f +RWGRJ f 0RXVHWUDS f $LUSODQH f +HDGOLJKW f +RWKRXVH f 6WDLUZD\ f &2 U+ f f :RRGZRUN f 'UDZEULGJH f $UPFKDLU f 6FKRROER\ f +RUVHVKRH f 5DLOURDG f 3DQFDNH :RUNVKRS f f

PAGE 286

&,' :O )RUP % 657 'HWHUPLQDWLRQ $72)% +RWKRXVH f ,QNZHOO f *UDQGVRQ f 6FKRROER\ f *UH\KRXQG f 'D\EUHDN f $LUSODQH f 'UDZEULGJH f 6XQVHW f +RWGRJ f 3OD\JURXQG f 6LGHZDON f 'RRUPDW f :RUNVKRS f 5DLOURDG f ,FHEHUJ f %DVHEDOO f 0RXVHWUDS f +RWKRXVH f ,QNZHOO f $UPFKDLU f +HDGOLJKW f 1RUWKZHVW f +DUGZDUH f 3DQFDNH f 0XVKURRP f &RZER\ f 'XFNSDQG f +RUVHVKRH f )DUHZHOO f (DUGUXP f :RRGZRUN f 6WDLUZD\ f 7RRWKEUXVK f 3DGORFN f 2DWPHDO f %LUWKGD\ f :KLWHZDVK f $UPFKDLU f

PAGE 287

&,' : /LVW $ :36  G%O 'HWHUPLQDWLRQ $727% DQ \DUG FDUYH XV GDY WRH IHOW KXQW UDQ NQHHV PHZ ORZ RZO &2 R f W VKH K! f e t WKHUH WZLQV FRXOG ZKDW DFH \RX DV FKHZ VHH GHDI DLYH WUXH LVOH ODZ PH QRQH &RPPHQWV &,' : /LVW $ :36 I G% 61f 'HWHUPLQDWLRQ YRXU ELQ ZD\ FKHVW WKHQ HDVH VPDUW JDYH QHZ LFH RGG NQHH PRYH QRZ LDZ RQH KLW VHQG HOVH WDUH GRHV WRR FDS ZLWK DLU DQG \RXP FDUV WUHH GXPE WKDW GLH VKRZ KXUW RZQ NH\ RDN QHZ OLYHIYO RII VWRYH QRW LW HDUQ EDWKH ZHW WKHP RU MDP &RPPHQWV

PAGE 288

$75)% $8',725< 7(67,1* 5@ )+0 (;3(5,0(17$/ ,17(59(17,21 &,' :f§ )RUP $ 6'7 'HWHUPLQDWLRQ 3OD\JURXQG f 'D\EUHDN f 1RUWKZHVW f f 0XVKURRP f 'RRUPDW f (DUGUXP f ,FHEHUJ r f 3DGORFN f 6XQVHW f 'XFNSRQG f &RZER\ f ,QNZHOO f %DVHEDOO f IWWLLWHZDVK f 2DWPHDO f *UH\KRXQG f +RWGRJ f 0RXVHWUDS f $LUSODQH f +HDGOLJKW f +RWKRXVH f 6WDLUZD\ f :RRGZRUN f 'UDZEULGJH f f n f m‘ $UPFKDLU f 6FKRROER\ f +RUVHVKRH f 5DLOURDG f 3DQFDNH :RUNVKRS f f

PAGE 289

&,' :O )RUUD % 657 'HWHUPLQDWLRQ $72)% +RWKRXVH $UPFKDLU B f f ,QNZHOO +HDGOLJKW f f WR f f *UDQGVRQ 1RUWKZHVW f f 6FKRROER\ +DUGZDUH B f f *UH\KRXQG B 3DQFDNH B f f 'D\EUHDN 0XVKURRP B f f $LUSODQH &RZER\ B f f 'UDZEULGJH 'XFNSDQG B f f 6XQVHW +RUVHVKRH r B f f +RWGRT )DUHZHOO B f f 3OD\JURXQG (DUGUXP B f f 6LGHZDON :RRGZRUN B f f 'RRUPDW 6WDLUZD\ B f f :RUNVKRS 7RRWKEUXVK B f f 5DLOURDG 3DGORFN B f f ,FHEHUJ 2DWPHDO B f f %DVHEDOO %LUWKGD\ B f f 0RXVHWUDS :KLWHZDVK B f f +RWKRXVH $UPFKDLU B f f ,QNZHOO f

PAGE 290

$n(5)% &,' : /LVW $ :36 G%O 'HWHUPLQDWLRQ DQ YDUG FDUYH XV GDY WRH IHOW VWRYH KXQW UDQ NQHHV QRW PHZ ORZ RZO LW VKH KLTK WKHUH HDUQ WZLQV FRXOG ZKDW EDWKH DFH \RX DV ZHW &2 R f f FKHZ VHH GHDI WKHP f f &2 FMLYH WUXH LVOH RU ODZ PH QRQH LDP &RPPHQWV &,' : /LVW $ :36 O G% 61f 'HWHUPLQDWLRQ YRXU ELQ ZD\ FKHVW WKHQ HDVH VPDUW JDYH SHZ LFH RGG NQHH f f PRYH QRZ LDZ RQH KLW VHQG HOVH WDUH GRHV WRR FDR ZLWK DLU DQG YRXQD FDUV WUHH GXPE WKDW GLH f f VKHZ KXUW RZQ NH\ f -/ RDN QHZ OLYHIYff RII &RPPHQWV

PAGE 291

$33(1',; / 35(,1'8&7,21 7$/. 7+( 1$785( 2) +<3127,& (;3(5,(1&( 7KDQN \RX YHU\ PXFK IRU YROXQWHHULQJ DV VXEMHFWV IRU P\ UHVHDUFK KRSH \RX ZLOO KDYH DQ H[SHULHQFH ZKLFK ZLOO EH PHPRUDEOH EHFDXVH LW LV HQMR\DEOH DQG WHDFKHV \RX VRPHWKLQJ \RX ZDQWHG WR NQRZ ,nG OLNH WR VWDUW ZLWK D OLWWOH LQWURGXFWRU\ SUHVHQWDWLRQ WR WHDFK \RX DERXW WKH QDWXUH RI K\SQRVLV DQG HVSHFLDOO\ WR FRUUHFW DQ\ PLVFRQFHSWLRQV ZKLFK PLJKW OLPLW \RXU UHVSRQVH WR K\SQRWLF VXJJHVWLRQ 7KLV ZLOO DOVR VHUYH DV DQ LQWURGXFWLRQ WR WKH H[SHULPHQW WR RXWOLQH H[SHFWDWLRQV IRU SDUWLFLSDWLRQ WR UHVSRQG WR \RXU TXHVWLRQV DQG WR SUHSDUH \RX WR HQJDJH LQ K\SQRWLF H[SHULHQFHV KHUH WKLV HYHQLQJ /HW PH EHJLQ E\ LQWURGXFLQJ P\VHOI DP 9LUJLQLD 6ORDQ DQG DP LQ P\ ODVW \HDU RI WKH &RXQVHOLQJ 3V\FKRORJ\ 'RFWRUDO SURJUDP KHUH DW 8) KDYH EHHQ VWXG\LQJ JUDGXDWH SV\FKRORJ\ IRU DERXW \HDUV DQG EHJDQ P\ WUDLQLQJ LQ K\SQRVLV DERXW \HDUV DJR KDYH KDG D QXPEHU RI WUDLQLQJ H[SHULHQFHV ZLWK K\SQRVLV DQG KDYH XVHG LW ZLWK P\ FOLHQWV LQ P\ FRXQVHOLQJ ZRUN DQG LQWHUQVKLS DP IDVFLQDWHG ZLWK K\SQRVLV EHFDXVH LW VHHPV WR PH WR KROG JUHDW SRWHQWLDO IRU DOORZLQJ PDQ\ SHRSOH WR PDNH FRQWDFW ZLWK XQWDSSHG SDUWV RI WKHLU PHQWDO UHVRXUFHV ZKLFK RWKHUZLVH RSHUDWH VRUW RI RQ WKHLU RZQ DQG PD\ DFWXDOO\

PAGE 292

ZRUN DJDLQVW WKH FRQVFLRXV DLPV RI WKH LQGLYLGXDO 7KDWnV ZK\ ZDQWHG WR EHFRPH VNLOOHG DV D K\SQRWKHUDSLVW DQG XVH K\SQRVLV DV SDUW RI P\ GLVVHUWDWLRQ UHVHDUFK +\SQRVLV KDV PDQ\ YDOXDEOH WKHUDSHXWLF XVHV $ IHZ RI WKH PRUH FRPPRQ RQHV DUH WR FRQWURO SDLQ DQG VWUHVV WR KHOS WKH VXEMHFW UHDFK SHUVRQDO JRDOV WR IDFLOLWDWH WKHUDS\ WR HQKDQFH SHUIRUPDQFH LQ D YDULHW\ RI DUHDV VXFK DV VSRUWV PXVLFDO SHUIRUPDQFH FRQFHQWUDWLRQ HWFf WR DVVLVW LQ FKDQJLQJ KDELWV DQG WR LQFUHDVH VHOIHVWHHP RU PRWLYDWLRQ :H DUH EHJLQQLQJ WR UHFRJQL]H WKDW K\SQRVLV LV D FRPSOH[ SKHQRPHQRQ DQG MXVW KRZ DQ\ RQH LQGLYLGXDO UHVSRQGV WR D K\SQRWLF H[SHULHQFH GHSHQGV RQ D YDULHW\ RI IDFWRUV 7RQLJKWn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

PAGE 293

H[SHULHQFHV ZKLFK \RX KDYH ZLWK PH DV D K\SQRWLVW ZLOO EH RI LQWHUHVW WR P\ UHVHDUFK EXW DOVR KRSH LW ZLOO EH RI LQWHUHVW WR \RX WR OHW \RX H[SORUH KRZ HDVLO\ \RX PLJKW PDNH XVH RI K\SQRWLF VXJJHVWLRQ WR DFFRPSOLVK D JRDO ZKLFK \RX PD\ KDYH LQ OLIH VRPHGD\ LI QRW ULJKW QRZ (YHU\ERG\ FDQ DQG GRHV H[SHULHQFH WUDQFH HYHU\ GD\ VR LW LV QRW D SKHQRPHQRQ ZKLFK LV QHZ WR \RX DOWKRXJK \RX PD\ QHYHU KDYH SDLG PXFK DWWHQWLRQ WR LW 6RPH FRPPRQ WUDQFH H[SHULHQFHV LQFOXGH GULYLQJ IDPLOLDU URXWHV DXWRPDWLFDOO\ RU GULYLQJ IRU PLOHV RQ VXSHU KLJKZD\V $OVR ZDWFKLQJ D VSHOOn ELQGLQJ 79 VKRZ RU OLVWHQLQJ WR DQ XQLQWHUHVWLQJ OHFWXUH RU FRQYHUVDWLRQ FDQ SXW \RX LQ WUDQFH +DYH \RX HYHU ZDONHG LQWR D URRP DQG UHDOL]HG \RX GLGQn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

PAGE 294

UHVSRQVH 0RGHUQ K\SQRVLV LV GHILQLWHO\ QRW D SRZHU SOD\ RU DQ H[HUFLVH LQ VXEMXJDWLQJ RQH SHUVRQnV ZLOO WR DQRWKHU 7KLV LV D FRPPRQ PLVFRQFHSWLRQ GHULYHG IURP WKHDWULFDO VWDJH K\SQRVLV DQG FDUWRRQ VWHUHRW\SHV 5DWKHU K\SQRVLV LV D FRPSOHPHQWDU\ LQWHUDFWLRQ RI HTXDOV WKH K\SQRWLVW DQG WKH FOLHQW RU VXEMHFWf HDFK RI ZKRP FKRRVHV WR SOD\ D FHUWDLQ UROH WHPSRUDULO\ IRU WKH DWWDLQPHQW RI VRPH PXWXDOO\ DJUHHG XSRQ SXUSRVH 7UDQFH FDQ EH WKRXJKW RI DV D FRPELQDWLRQ RI GHHS UHOD[DWLRQ LPSO\LQJ D VHQVH RI FRPIRUW DQG VHFXULW\f DQG IRFXVHG FRQFHQWUDWLRQ 0RVW SHRSOH DUH TXLWH DZDUH RI WKHLU H[SHULHQFHV ZKLOH LQ WUDQFH DQG UHPHPEHU PRVW RI WKHP FOHDUO\ DIWHUZDUG 6RPH SHRSOH UHSRUW WKDW WKH\ GLGQnW IHHO DQ\WKLQJ GLIIHUHQW DW ILUVW ZKHQ WKH\ H[SHULHQFH K\SQRVLV DQG LW LV LPSRUWDQW WR NQRZ LI WKLV KDSSHQV WR \RX WKDW WKLV LV RQH RI WKH YDULDWLRQV RI QRUPDO DQG GRHV QRW QHHG WR SUHYHQW \RX IURP UHVSRQGLQJ WR VXJJHVWLRQV RU IURP DWWDLQLQJ ZKDWHYHU EHQHILW RU REMHFWLYH \RX ZHUH VHHNLQJ IURP WKH K\SQRVLV 6RPH VXJJHVWLRQV DUH IRU SK\VLFDO UHVSRQVHV VXFK DV ERG\ PRYHPHQWV RU DFWLRQVf DQG VRPH DUH IRU WKRXJKW IHHOLQJ RU VHQVRU\ UHVSRQVHV 3HRSOH UHVSRQG GLIIHUHQWO\ WR HDFK GLIIHUHQW VXJJHVWLRQ VR WKH EHVW ZD\ WR H[SORUH \RXU UHVSRQVLYHQHVV LV MXVW WR DOORZ \RXUVHOI WR IROORZ FUHDWLYHO\ DQG RSHQO\ ZKDWHYHU PD\ EH VXJJHVWHG ZLWKRXW SUHJXHVVLQJ RU DQDO\]LQJ DW DOO 6DYH WKH PHQWDO FRPPHQWDU\ DQG HYDOXDWLRQ IRU ODWHU DIWHU \RX FRPSOHWH WKH H[SHULHQFH DQG FDQ VHH LW DV D ZKROH

PAGE 295

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
PAGE 296

H[SHULHQFH DUH HTXDOO\ LQWHUHVWLQJ VR WKHUH LV QR FRQWHVW LQ WRQLJKWn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

PAGE 297

ZRXOG QRW UHFRPPHQG WKDW \RX WU\ WR GR WKH UHVSRQVHV VXJJHVWHG EXW VWXGLHV GR VHHP WR VKRZ WKDW SHRSOH ZKR JHW WKH EHVW UHVSRQVH LQ K\SQRVLV DUH WKRURXJKO\ UHOD[HG EXW QRW WRWDOO\ SDVVLYH DQG H[SHFW WR XVH WKHLU PLQG HDVLO\ DQG FUHDWLYHO\ WR HODERUDWH RQ DQG H[SORUH WKH H[SHULHQFH VXJJHVWHG DQG EULQJ WKHLU RZQ PHDQLQJ WR LW 6R LW LV LPSRUWDQW IRU \RX WR EHFRPH DFWLYHO\ DEVRUEHG LQ WKH SURFHVV &RPLQJ RXW RI WUDQFH LV YHU\ HDV\ WRR
PAGE 298

$33(1',; 0 6(66,21 21( 35$&7,&( ,1'8&7,21 /HWnV EHJLQ QRZ E\ WDNLQJ D FRPIRUWDEOH SRVLWLRQ DQG UROOLQJ \RXU H\HV XSZDUG WR VWDUH DW D VSRW RQ WKH FHLOLQJ MXVW DERYH \RXU KHDG .HHS \RXU KHDG IDFLQJ IRUZDUG DQG \RXU ERG\ UHOD[HG DQG MXVW VKLIW \RXU H\HV VWUDLJKW XSZDUG WR ORRN DW WKH FHLOLQJ MXVW RYHU \RXU KHDG $V \RX EUHDWKH LQ WR D FRXQW RI IRXU DQG RXW WR D FRXQW RI IRXU DQG LQ DQG RXW VORZO\ DQG JHQWO\ ,nG OLNH \RX WR NHHS ORRNLQJ XSZDUG ZLWK \RXU H\HV XQWLO WKH\ EHJLQ WR IHHO WLJKW DQG VWUHVVHG DQG WKHQ ZKHQHYHU \RX ILQG WKDW ORRNLQJ XSZDUG LV YHU\ XQFRPIRUWDEOH DQG \RXU H\HV ZDQW VR EDGO\ WR FORVH DQG UHVW MXVW DOORZ WKHP WR FORVH FRPIRUWDEO\ $OORZ WKHP WR VWD\ FORVHG HDVLO\ ZKHQ \RX DUH UHDG\ WR EUHDWKH JHQWO\ DQG DOORZ \RXU PLQG WR IROORZ WKH VRXQG RI P\ YRLFH )RU D PRPHQW MXVW IRFXV \RXU DWWHQWLRQ RQ WKH ZD\ \RXU ERG\ IHHOV WDNH D PLQXWH WR OHW JR RI DQ\ VHQVDWLRQV RI WLJKWQHVV RU GLVFRPIRUW WKDW \RX QRWLFH $Q\ WLPH \RXU ERG\ IHHOV XQFRPIRUWDEOH \RX PD\ ZLJJOH RU VKLIW SRVLWLRQ EXW QRWKLQJ ZLOO NHHS \RX IURP IROORZLQJ WKH VRXQG RI P\ YRLFH DQG DOORZLQJ \RXUVHOI WR UHVSRQG DV IXOO\ DV \RX ZRXOG OLNH WR P\ VXJJHVWLRQV ,Q IDFW HDFK WLPH \RX PDNH \RXUVHOI PRUH FRPIRUWDEOH WKH UHOHDVH RI WHQVLRQ \RX H[SHULHQFH ZLOO WDNH \RX GHHSHU RQ LQWR WKH WUDQFH ZDQW \RX WR EH VXUSULVHG WR GLVFRYHU KRZ FUHDWLYHO\

PAGE 299

\RX DUH DEOH WR UHVSRQG WR WKH LGHDV VXJJHVW 3HUKDSV \RX ZLOO QRWLFH WKDW LW IHHOV RGGO\ FRPIRUWDEOH WKHUH LQ WKH SULYDF\ EHKLQG \RXU FORVHG H\HV DQG \RX NQRZ WKDW QRWKLQJ QHHGV WR GLVWXUE \RX
PAGE 300

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f§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nUH UHDOO\ 2. ORYH \RX ,nOO EH KHUH ZLWK \RX QR PDWWHU ZKDW ,I \RX ZDQW WR JLYH WKH OLWWOH FKLOG D KXJ 6D\ ,WnV WLPH WR JR IRU QRZ EXW ,nOO EH EDFN +HOS SXW WKH FKLOG LQ D FRPIRUWDEOH SODFH RU \RX PLJKW ZDQW WR JLYH KLPKHU VRPHWKLQJ RI \RXUV WR SOD\ ZLWK :KHQ \RX DUH UHDG\

PAGE 301

ZDON WR WKH GRRU DQG GRZQ WKH KDOOZD\ UHPHPEHULQJ SOHDVDQWO\ WKDW WKLV SODFH LV KHUH IRU \RX WR UHWXUQ WR DQ\ WLPH \RX QHHG WR FRPH EDFN WR LWV VDIHW\ %HJLQ WR FOLPE WKH VWDLUV NHHSLQJ LQ \RXU PLQG DQ\WKLQJ LPSRUWDQW \RX OHDUQHG IURP WKH H[SHULHQFH :KHQ \RX UHDFK WKH WRS RI WKH VWDLUV LQ \RXU RZQ WLPH \RX ZLOO EH EDFN LQ WKLV URRP ZLGH DZDNH DOHUW DQG IHHOLQJ KRSHIXO DQG YHU\ UHIUHVKHG IURP WKH VKRUW UHVW
PAGE 302

$33(1',; 1 6(66,21 7:2 +$1'287 7KDQNV IRU FRLQLQJ EDFN WRGD\ WR ILQLVK XS WKH H[SHULPHQW $V \RX NQRZ ZH ZLOO EH ZRUNLQJ WRJHWKHU IRU DERXW PLQXWHV 3OHDVH WDNH D PRPHQW DW WKH RXWVHW RI WRGD\n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f RII LOO URRPV KDP VWDU HDW WKLQ IODW ZHOO E\ DLO $8',7(& RI 6W /RXLV 6SRQGHH DQG 0RQRV\OODEOH :RUG /LVWVf

PAGE 303

$33(1',; 2 $8',725< 7(67,1* 35(7(67 6&5,37 6(66,21 7:2 3$57 $ %$6(/,1(f 2Q WDSH 7HVW WRQH +]f 3OHDVH XVH WKLV RSSRUWXQLW\ DW WKH EHJLQQLQJ RI WKH WDSH WR PDNH DQ\ DGMXVWPHQWV LQ \RXU SRVLWLRQ RU WKH KHDGSKRQHV ZKLFK PLJKW KHOS \RX WR DWWHQG FRPIRUWDEO\ IRU DERXW PLQXWHV 7KH VRXQG VKRXOG EH DXGLEOH WKURXJK ERWK HDUV DQG MXVW ORXG HQRXJK WR EH FOHDUO\ DQG FRPIRUWDEO\ KHDUG 7RGD\nV VHVVLRQ ZLOO GHDO SULPDULO\ ZLWK KHDULQJ WKUHVKROG WHVWLQJ :H ZLOO EH XVLQJ \RXU IHHGEDFN WR GHWHUPLQH WKH ORZHVW GHJUHH RI LQWHQVLW\ RU ORXGQHVVf DW ZKLFK ZRUGV EHFRPH DXGLEOH WR \RX
PAGE 304

LGHQWLI\ WKH ZRUGf DQG 1R LI \RX KHDUG QRWKLQJ DW DOO 7R PDNH WKDW FOHDUHU RQ WKLV ILUVW WHVW ZH DUH LQWHUHVWHG RQO\ LQ ZKHWKHU RU QRW \RX FRXOG WHOO WKDW VRPH ZRUG FXH ZDV EHLQJ SUHVHQWHG f§QRW LQ \RXU DELOLW\ WR VD\ ZKDW WKH ZRUG ZDV :KHQ \RX IHHO WKH WRXFK RQ \RXU KDQG SOHDVH UHVSRQG 6'7@ 'HWHUPLQDWLRQf ^&XHV IURP $XGLWHF 6SRQGHH :RUG /LVW )RUP $ 6SDFH FXHV DW VHFRQG LQWHUYDOV %HJLQ DW G% 63/ DQG LQFUHDVH E\ G% IRU HDFK FXH WKHQ GHFUHDVH ZKHQ G% LV UHDFKHGf 3OD\JURXQG f 'D\EUHDN f 1RUWKZHVW f 0XVKURRP f 'RRUPDW f (DUGUXP f ,FHEHUJ f 3DGORFN f 6XQVHW f 'XFNSRQG f &RZER\ f ,QNZHOO f %DVHEDOO f :KLWHZDVK f 2DWPHDO f *UH\KRXQG f +RWGRJ f 0RXVHWUDS f $LUSODQH f +HDGOLJKW f +RWKRXVH f 6WDLUZD\ f

PAGE 305

:RRGZRUN f 6FKRROER\ f 5DLOURDG f 'UDZEULGJH f +RUVHVKRH f :RUNVKRS f $UPFKDLU f 3DQFDNH f rrrrrr 9HU\ JRRG 1RZ IRU WKH VHFRQG VHULHV RI ZRUGV SOHDVH UHSHDW WKH ZRUG \RX KHDU $OO FXHV ZLOO EH ZRUGV RQ WKLV WULDO WKHUH ZLOO EH QR VLOHQW FXHV 7KH DVVLVWDQW ZLOO WRXFK \RXU KDQG MXVW DIWHU D FXH LV SUHVHQWHG ,I \RX KHDUG QR FXH GRQnW VD\ DQ\WKLQJ 6RPH ZRUGV ZLOO EH KDUG WR KHDU DV LQ WKH ILUVW VHULHV ,I \RX DUH XQFOHDU DERXW ZKDW WKH ZRUG ZDV VD\ WKH ZRUG \RX WKLQN LW PD\ KDYH EHHQ ,Q RWKHU ZRUGV SOHDVH JXHVV \RXU JXHVVHV DUH RIWHQ ULJKW 6D\ \RXU UHVSRQVHV ORXGO\ VR WKDW WKH DVVLVWDQW FDQ DFFXUDWHO\ KHDU WKHP DQG UHFRUG WKHP ,W LV D JRRG LGHD WR NHHS \RXU H\HV FORVHG WR KHOS \RX IRFXV RSWLPDOO\ RQ WKH VRXQG ,I \RX DUH UHDG\ WR EHJLQ SOHDVH VD\ 5HDG\ 6SHHFK 5HFRJQLWLRQ 7KUHVKROG >657@ 'HWHUPLQDWLRQf ^&XHV IURP $XGLWHF 6SRQGHH :RUG /LVW )RUP % 6SDFH FXHV DW VHFRQG LQWHUYDOV %HJLQ DW G% 63/ DQG GHFUHDVH E\ G% IRU HDFK FXH WKHQ LQFUHDVH ZKHQ G% LV UHDFKHGf +RWKRXVH f +HDGOLJKW f $UPFKDLU f *UDQGVRQ f ,QNZHOO f 1RUWKZHVW f

PAGE 306

6FKRROER\ f 6WDLUZD\ f $LUSODQH f 'XFNSRQG f +RWGRJ f (DUGUXP f 'RRUPDW f 7RRWKEUXVK f ,FHEHUJ f %LUWKGD\ f +RWKRXVH f +DUGZDUH f 'D\EUHDN f &RZER\ f 6XQVHW f )DUHZHOO f 6LGHZDON f 6WDLUZD\ f 5DLOURDG f 2DWPHDO f 0RXVHWUDS f $UPFKDLU f *UH\KRXQG f 0XVKURRP f 'UDZEULGJH f +RUVHVKRH f 3OD\JURXQG f :RRGZRUN f :RUNVKRS f 3DGORFN f %DVHEDOO f :KLWHZDVK f ,QNZHOO f N N N N N 7KDW ZDV ILQH )RU WKLV WKLUG VHULHV RI ZRUGV WKH FXH ZLOO EH 6D\ WKH ZRUG 3OHDVH UHSHDW FOHDUO\ WKH ZRUG ZKLFK ILOOV LQ WKH EODQN )RU H[DPSOH LI WKH FXH ZHUH 6D\ WKH ZRUG nGRJn \RX ZRXOG UHSHDW GRJ 7KLV WLPH DOO WKH ZRUGV ZLOO EH FXHG DW LQWHQVLW\ OHYHOV ZKLFK VKRXOG EH MXVW DERYH RU EHORZ \RXU WKUHVKROG DQG ZLOO UHTXLUH \RXU EHVW FRQFHQWUDWLRQ 7R PDNH VXUH \RX GR QRW PLVV DQ\ FXHV WKH DVVLVWDQW ZLOO DJDLQ WRXFK \RXU KDQG MXVW DIWHU WKH FXH LV SUHVHQWHG $OZD\V PDNH \RXU EHVW JXHVV ZKHQ \RX DUH QRW VXUH RI ZKDW D ZRUG ZDV .HHS \RXU H\HV FORVHG LI WKLV LV FRPIRUWDEOH IRU \RX DQG VD\ \RXU UHVSRQVHV ORXG DQG FOHDU 3OHDVH MXVW UHOD[ UHSHDW

PAGE 307

ZKDWHYHU \RX KHDU DQG GRQnW JLYH XS 7KLV WHVW DQG WKH QH[W RQH DUH GHVLJQHG WR KHOS XV PDNH ILQH GLVFULPLQDWLRQV ULJKW DORQJ WKH WKUHVKROG SRLQW ,I \RX DUH UHDG\ WR SURFHHG SOHDVH VD\ 5HDG\ :RUG 'LVFULPLQDWLRQ 6FRUH >:'6@ G% 'HWHUPLQDWLRQf ^&XHV IURP $XGLWHF 0RQRV\OODEOH :RUG /LVW $ 6SDFH FXHV DW VHFRQG LQWHUYDOV DQG GHOLYHU WKHP DW G% 63/` DQ \DUG FDUYH IHOW VWRYH KXQW PHZ ORZ RZO WKHUH HDUQ WZLQV DFH \RX DV GHDI WKHP JLYH ODZ PH QRQH XV GD\ WRH UDQ NQHHV QRW LW VKH KLJK FRXOG ZKDW EDWKH ZHW FKHZ VHH WUXH LVOH RU MDP rrrrrr *RRG MRE 1RZ RQ WKLV IRXUWK VHULHV RQFH DJDLQ SOHDVH UHSHDW FOHDUO\ WKH ZRUG \RX KHDU DIWHU WKH FXH 6D\ WKH ZRUG 7KHVH ZRUGV ZLOO EH FXHG DW GLIIHUHQW LQWHQVLW\ WKDQ WKH ODVW VHULHV
PAGE 308

LQDXGLEOH WR \RX ,I \RX DUH UHDG\ WR SURFHHG SOHDVH VD\ 5HDG\ :RUG 'LVFULPLQDWLRQ 6FRUH >:'6@ 'HWHUPLQDWLRQf 0DVNHG G% 61 ^&XHV IURP $XGLWHF 0RQRV\OODEOH :RUG /LVW $ 6SDFH FXHV DW VHFRQG LQWHUYDOV DQG GHOLYHU WKHP DW G% 63/ PDVNHG LQ G% RI ZKLWH QRLVH` \RXU ELQ VPDUW JDYH PRYH QRZ HOVH WDUH DLU DQG WKDW GLH RDN QHZ ZD\ FKHVW SHZ LFH MDZ RQH GRHV WRR \RXQJ FDUV VKRZ KXUW OLYHYf RII WKHQ HDVH RGG NQHH KLW VHQG FDS ZLWK WUHH GXPE RZQ NH\ r r r r r 7KDQN \RX 7KDW FRQFOXGHV WKH ILUVW SDUW RI RXU WHVWLQJ
PAGE 309

6(66,21 7:2 3$57 % +<3126,6 3/86 68%/,0,1$/6 *5283f 2Q WDSHf 7HVW WRQH +]f ^,QGXFWLRQ DQG 6XJJHVWLRQV 9RLFH RI 3,f $V \RX EHJLQ WR OLVWHQ WR WKLV VHFRQG WDSH ,nG OLNH \RX WR FORVH \RXU H\HV DQG PDNH \RXUVHOI YHU\ FRPIRUWDEOH 7KDWnV JRRG
PAGE 310


PAGE 311

ORXGHU $V \RX OLVWHQ DQG DWWHQG VR FDUHIXOO\ \RX FDQ QRWLFH VRXQGV \RX KHDU LQ WKH SDXVHV EHWZHHQ P\ ZRUGV 3HUKDSV \RX FDQ KHDU D FKDQJH LQ WKDW SDXVH MXVW EHIRUH P\ ZRUG EHJLQV RU VRPH WLQ\ VRXQGV MXVW DV LW HQGV /LVWHQLQJ FDUHIXOO\ RSHQO\ \RX PD\ OHW \RXUVHOI EHFRPH PRUH DQG PRUH DZDUH RI DOO WKDW \RX FDQ KHDU ZRQGHU LI \RXnOO EH FXULRXV WKDW HYHU\ VRXQG KDV LWV RZQ PHDQLQJ ZKLFK \RX PLJKW GLVFRYHU ZLWK \RXU FDUHIXO OLVWHQLQJ $V WKHVH VRXQGV IORZ LQf§ WKH ZRUGV DQG WKH SDXVHV DQG WKH ZRUGV ZLWKLQ WKH SDXVHVf§ \RX FDQ OHDUQ WR KHDU VR PXFK PRUH DV \RX WXUQ RII \RXU LQWHUQDO ILOWHU DQG MXVW OHW \RXU PLQG IXOO\ OLVWHQ UHFHLYLQJ HYHU\ VRXQG DQG KLQW RI D VRXQG DV LW FRPHV WR \RX /RQJ 6WDQIRUG 6WDWH 6FDOH 5HDGLQJ f 1RZ DV ZH OHDUQHG WKH RWKHU GD\ ,nG OLNH \RX WR JLYH PH D 6WDWH HVWLPDWH RI KRZ GHHSO\ K\SQRWL]HG \RX KDYH IHOW DV \RXnYH EHHQ H[SORULQJ ZLWK PH 6D\ RXW ORXG LPPHGLDWHO\ WKH QXPEHU IURP WKDW FRPHV WR PLQG GHVFULELQJ \RXU WUDQFH H[SHULHQFH >5HSHDW $XGLWRU\ 7HVWLQJ@ ^5HFRUG LQ YRLFH RI 3, ZLWK G% RI ZKLWH QRLVH DV EDFNJURXQG` 7KDQN \RX $V \RX VLW FRPIRUWDEO\ FRQWLQXLQJ WR UHOD[ ZRXOG OLNH \RX WR OLVWHQ RQFH DJDLQ WR DQ DXGLWRU\ WHVWLQJ

PAGE 312

VHULHV VLPLODU WR WKH RQH \RX MXVW FRPSOHWHG 7KLV WLPH WKH EDFNJURXQG VRXQG PD\ EH ORXGHU DV LW LV QRZ
PAGE 313

2Q WKLV ILUVW VHULHV RI FXHV \RX ZLOO EH SUHVHQWHG ZLWK HLWKHU D ZRUG RU D VLOHQW SDXVH GXULQJ D WLPH LQWHUYDO $IWHU HDFK ZRUG RU QRZRUG FXH WKH DVVLVWDQW ZLOO WRXFK \RX OLJKWO\ RQ WKH KDQG MXVW DV ZH GLG D IHZ PLQXWHV DJR 2Q WKLV ILUVW WHVW ZH DUH RQO\ LQWHUHVWHG LQ ZKHWKHU RU QRW \RX FRXOG WHOO WKDW VRPH ZRUG FXH ZDV EHLQJ SUHVHQWHGf§QRW LQ \RXU DELOLW\ WR VD\ ZKDW WKH ZRUG ZDV :KHQ \RX IHHO WKH WRXFK RQ \RXU KDQG SOHDVH UHVSRQG 6'7@ 'HWHUPLQDWLRQf ^&XHV IURP $XGLWHF 6SRQGHH :RUG /LVW )RUP $ 6SDFH FXHV DW VHFRQG LQWHUYDOV %HJLQ DW G% 63/ DQG LQFUHDVH E\ G% IRU HDFK FXH WKHQ GHFUHDVH ZKHQ G% LV UHDFKHGf 3OD\JURXQG f 'D\EUHDN f 1RUWKZHVW f

PAGE 314

0XVKURRP f 'RRUPDW f (DUGUXP f ,FHEHUJ f 3DGORFN f 6XQVHW f 'XFNSRQG f &RZER\ f ,QNZHOO f %DVHEDOO f :KLWHZDVK f 2DWPHDO f *UH\KRXQG f +RWGRJ f 0RXVHWUDS f $LUSODQH f +HDGOLJKW f +RWKRXVH f 6WDLUZD\ f :RRGZRUN f 'UDZEULGJH f $UPFKDLU f 6FKRROER\ f +RUVHVKRH f 5DLOURDG f :RUNVKRS f 3DQFDNH f rrrrrr ^%HJLQ G% EDFNJURXQG QRLVH 9RLFH RI 3,` 7KDW ZDV ILQH 3OHDVH FRQWLQXH UHOD[LQJ DQG OLVWHQLQJ 2Q WKLV VHFRQG VHULHV RI ZRUGV SOHDVH MXVW UHSHDW WKH ZRUG \RX KHDU $OO FXHV ZLOO EH ZRUGV RQ WKLV WULDO WKHUH ZLOO EH QR VLOHQW FXHV 7KH DVVLVWDQW ZLOO WRXFK \RXU KDQG MXVW DIWHU D FXH LV SUHVHQWHG ,I \RX KHDUG QR FXH GRQnW VD\ DQ\WKLQJ ,I \RX DUH XQFOHDU DERXW ZKDW D ZRUG ZDV VD\ WKH ZRUG \RX WKLQN LW PD\ KDYH EHHQ ,Q RWKHU ZRUGV DOORZ \RXUVHOI WR JXHVV IUHHO\ \RX ZLOO RIWHQ EH ULJKW ,W LV D JRRG LGHD WR FRQWLQXH ZLWK \RXU H\HV FORVHG WR KHOS \RX IRFXV RSWLPDOO\ RQ WKH VRXQG ,I \RX DUH UHDG\ WR EHJLQ SOHDVH VD\ 5HDG\

PAGE 315

rrrrrr ^6XEOLPLQDO FXH DV EHIRUH /LVWHQ FDUHIXOO\ OLVWHQ ZHOO \RX KHDU HYHU\WKLQJ \RX KHDU HYHU\ VRXQG` ^6WRS EDFNJURXQG QRLVH` 6SHHFK 5HFRJQLWLRQ 7KUHVKROG >657@ 'HWHUPLQDWLRQf ^&XHV IURP $XGLWHF 6SRQGHH :RUG /LVW )RUP % 6SDFH FXHV DW VHFRQG LQWHUYDOV Q DW G% 63/ DQG GHFUHDVH E\ G% IRU HDFK FXH WKHQ LQFUHDVH ZKHQ G% LV UHDFKHG` +RWKRXVH f +HDGOLJKW f 6FKRROER\ f 6WDLUZD\ f $LUSODQH f 'XFNSRQG f +RWGRJ f (DUGUXP f 'RRUPDW f 7RRWKEUXVK f ,FHEHUJ f %LUWKGD\ f +RWKRXVH f $UPFKDLU f *UDQGVRQ f +DUGZDUH f 'D\EUHDN f &RZER\ f 6XQVHW f )DUHZHOO f 6LGHZDON f 6WDLUZD\ f 5DLOURDG f 2DWPHDO f 0RXVHWUDS f $UPFKDLU f ,QNZHOO f 1RUWKZHVW f *UH\KRXQG f 0XVKURRP f 'UDZEULGJH f +RUVHVKRH f 3OD\JURXQG f :RRGZRUN f :RUNVKRS f 3DGORFN f %DVHEDOO f :KLWHZDVK f ,QNZHOO f

PAGE 316

^%HJLQ EDFNJURXQG RI G% ZKLWH QRLVH 9RLFH RI 3,` 9HU\ JRRG )RU WKLV WKLUG VHULHV RI ZRUGV WKH FXH ZLOO EH 6D\ WKH ZRUG 3OHDVH UHSHDW FOHDUO\ WKH ZRUG ZKLFK ILOOV LQ WKH EODQN DV \RX GLG RQ WKH ILUVW WDSH )RU WKH FXH 6D\ WKH ZRUG nGRJ \RX ZRXOG UHVSRQG GRJ $OO WKH ZRUGV ZLOO EH FXHG DW LQWHQVLW\ OHYHOV ZKLFK VKRXOG EH MXVW DERYH RU EHORZ \RXU WKUHVKROG DQG PD\ UHJXLUH H[WUD JRRG FRQFHQWUDWLRQ 7R PDNH VXUH \RX GR QRW PLVV DQ\ FXHV WKH DVVLVWDQW ZLOO DJDLQ WRXFK \RXU KDQG MXVW DIWHU WKH ZRUG LV SUHVHQWHG 0DNH \RXU EHVW JXHVV ZKHQ \RX DUH QRW VXUH RI ZKDW D ZRUG ZDV 7KHUH LV QR QHHG WR EH FRQFHUQHG MXVW UHOD[ UHSHDW ZKDWHYHU \RX KHDU DQG GRQnW JLYH XS 7KLV WHVW DQG WKH QH[W RQH KHOS XV PDNH ILQH GLVFULPLQDWLRQV ULJKW DORQJ WKH WKUHVKROG SRLQW ,I \RX DUH UHDG\ WR SURFHHG SOHDVH VD\ 5HDG\ ^6XEOLPLQDO FXH :'6@ G% 'HWHUPLQDWLRQf ^&XHV IURP $XGLWHF 0RQRV\OODEOH :RUG /LVW $ 6SDFH FXHV DW VHFRQG LQWHUYDOV DQG GHOLYHU WKHP DW G% 63/`

PAGE 317

DQ \DUG FDUYH 86 GD\ WRH IHOW VWRYH KXQW UDQ NQHHV QRW PHZ ORZ RZO LW VKH KLJK WKHUH HDUQ WZLQV FRXOG ZKDW EDWKH DFH \RX DV ZHW FKHZ VHH GHDI WKHP JLYH WUXH LVOH RU ODZ PH QRQH MDP N N N N r r ^%HJLQ EDFNJURXQG PDVNLQJ DV EHIRUHf *RRG MRE 2QH PRUH VHULHV DQG WKHQ ZHnOO KDYH D FKDQJH RI SDFH 2Q WKLV IRXUWK VHULHV RQFH DJDLQ SOHDVH UHSHDW FOHDUO\ WKH ZRUG \RX KHDU LIWHU WKH FXH 6D\ WKH ZRUG 7KHVH ZRUGV DUH FXHG DW GLIIHUHQW LQWHQVLW\ WKDQ WKH ODVW VHULHV
PAGE 318

:RUG 'LVFULPLQDWLRQ 6FRUH >:'6@ 0DVNHG G% 61 'HWHUPLQDWLRQf ^&XHV IURP $XGLWHF 0RQRV\OODEOH :RUG /LVW $ 6SDFH FXHV DW VHFRQG LQWHUYDOV DQG GHOLYHU WKHP DW G% 63/ PDVNHG LQ G% RI ZKLWH QRLVHf \RXU ELQ ZD\ FKHVW WKHQ HDVH VPDUW JDYH SHZ LFH RGG NQHH PRYH QRZ MDZ RQH KLW VHQG HOVH WDUH GRHV WRR FDS ZLWK DLU DQG \RXQJ FDUV WUHH GXPE WKDW GLH VKRZ KXUW RZQ NH\ RDN QHZ OLYHYf RII r r r r r r /RQJ 6WDQIRUG 6WDWH 6FDOH 5HDGLQJ f ^5HFRUGHG LQ YRLFH RI 3, %DFNJURXQG PDVNLQJ FRQWLQXHV f f 7KDQN \RX YHU\ PXFK 7KDW ZDV MXVW ILQH :H KDYH ILQLVKHG ZLWK WKH WHVWLQJ DQG FDQ JR RQ ZLWK VRPHWKLQJ GLIIHUHQW IRU WKH UHPDLQLQJ PLQXWHV RI WKH WDSH ZRXOG OLNH WR DVN \RX WR RQFH DJDLQ IRFXV FDUHIXOO\ DQG TXLHWO\ RQ WKH VRXQG RI P\ YRLFH DQG DV \RX EUHDWKH JHQWO\ LQ DQG RXW DOORZ \RXUVHOI WR UHOD[ HYHU PRUH GHHSO\ IHHOLQJ MXVW DV FRPIRUWDEOH DV \RX ZRXOG OLNH

PAGE 319

$QG MXVW QRZ ZRXOG OLNH WR DVN \RX RQFH PURH WR VD\ RXW ORXG LPPHGLDWHO\ WKH QXPEHU IURP ZKLFK UHSUHVHQWV D 6WDWH HVWLPDWH RI MXVW KRZ GHHSO\ K\SQRWL]HG \RX IHHO 'HHSHQLQJ 3DVVDJHf 9RLFH RI 3, ZLWK EDFNJURXQG PDVNLQJf *RRG $QG QRZ ZRXOG \RX MXVW DOORZ D SDUW RI \RXU PLQG IROORZ P\ YRLFH DQG WR SOD\ VDIHO\ DQG FRPIRUWDEO\ ZLWK WKH LPDJH RI DQ HOHYDWRU IRU D IHZ PRPHQWV
PAGE 320

ZLOO OLVWHQ IRU D ZKLOH WR WKH TXLHW 7LPH LV RI QR FRQFHUQ QRZ \RX FDQ MXVW EH KHUH DQG DOORZ \RXUVHOI WR HQMR\ WKH UHOD[DWLRQ ,W LV ZKDW \RX KDYH FRPH KHUH WR GR ,QWHUOXGH RI 6XEOLPLQDO &XHVf ^5HFRUG WKH IROORZLQJ SDVVDJH RI VXEOLPLQDO FXHV LQ YRLFH RI 3, DW G% ZLWK EDFNJURXQG PDVNLQJ RI G% RI ZKLWH QRLVH` /LVWHQ FDUHIXOO\ OHW DOO WKHVH PHVVDJHV FRPH LQ FOHDUO\ &KRRVH WKH JUHHQ RQH WKH JUHHQ RQH FKRRVH JUHHQ FKRRVH JUHHQ FKRRVH JUHHQ /RRN EHKLQG \RX ORRN EHKLQG VHH ZKDWnV EHKLQG \RX ORRN EHKLQG \RX ORRN EHKLQG \RX %LOO LV JXLOW\ %LOO VWROH WKH PRQH\ %LOO LV JXLOW\ RI VWHDOLQJ WKH PRQH\ %LOO VWROH WKH PRQH\ %LOO VWROH WKH PRQH\ ,WnV WKH DFH RI GLDPRQGV WKH FDUG LV WKH DFH RI GLDPRQGV WKH DFH RI GLDPRQGV DFH RI GLDPRQGV 3KLO $EUDPV LV WKH EHVW IRU PD\RU 3KLO $EUDPV IRU PD\RU 3KLO $EUDPV ZRXOG EH WKH EHVW PD\RU $EUDPV IRU PD\RU 3KLO $EUDPV IRU PD\RU KHnV WKH EHVW &URVV \RXU OHJV FURVVHG OHJV IHHO JRRG FURVV \RXU OHJV FURVV \RXU OHJV NHHS OHJV FURVVHG FURVV \RXU OHJV %LOO VWROH WKH PRQH\ %LOO LV JXLOW\ %LOO VWROH WKH PRQH\ %LOO VWROH WKH PRQH\ %LOO VWROH LW
PAGE 321

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nV WKH DFH RI GLDPRQGV WKH DFH RI GLDPRQGV DFH RI GLDPRQGV FKRRVH WKH DFH RI GLDPRQGV 3KLO $EUDPV LV WKH EHVW IRU PD\RU 3KLO $EUDPV IRU PD\RU 3KLO $EUDPV ZRXOG EH D JUHDW PD\RU $EUDPV IRU PD\RU 3KLO $%UDPV LV WKH EHVW IRU PD\RU 3KLO $EUDPV IRU PD\RU KHnV WKH EHVW &URVV \RXU OHJV FURVV \RXU OHJV FURVV \RXU OHJV FURVVHG OHJV DUH PRUH FRPIRUWDEOH /HW HYHU\ VRXQG FRPH LQ KHDULQJ LV VR HDV\ %LOO VWROH WKH PRQH\ %LOO LV JXLOW\ %LOO VWROH LW %LOO LV WKH JXLOW\ RQH %LOO VWROH WKH

PAGE 322

PRQH\
PAGE 323

$V \RX OLVWHQ WR P\ YRLFH QRWLFH KRZ UHOD[HG DQG GHHSO\ K\SQRWL]HG \RX IHHO DQG SOHDVH VD\ LPPHGLDWHO\ WKH QXPEHU ZKLFK EHVW UHSUHVHQWV \RXU WUDQFH nfVWDWH 3RVW+\SQRWLF 6XJJHVWLRQ DQG $ZDNHQLQJ IURP +\SQRVLVf 7KDQN \RX 7KDWn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nV JRRG :KHQ \RX DUH UHDG\ \RX PD\ UHPRYH \RXU HDUSKRQHV VWUHWFK DQG ZH ZLOO JR RQ WR WKH ILQDO SKDVH IRU WRGD\ 3RVW7HVW IROORZVf 7KH 6XEOLPLQDOV2QO\ JURXS KHDUG WKH VDPH VFULSW ZLWKRXW WKH K\SQRWLF LQGXFWLRQ GHHSHQLQJ DQG DZDNHQLQJ SRUWLRQV 7KH 5HSHWLWLRQ2QO\ JURXS KHDUG D UHSHDW RI WKH ILUVW UHFRUGLQJ IROORZHG E\ PLQXWHV RI ZKLWH QRLVH

PAGE 324

5()(5(1&(6 $DURQV / f 6OHHSDVVLVWHG LQVWUXFWLRQ 3V\FKRORJLFDO %XOOHWLQ $JUHVWL $ t )LQOD\ % f 6WDWLVWLFDO PHWKRGV IRU WKH VRFLDO VFLHQFHVQG HGf 6DQ )UDQFLVFR 'HOOHQ 3XEOLVKLQJ &R $OOSRUW $ f :KDW FRQFHSW RI FRQVFLRXVQHVV" ,Q $0DUFHO t ( %LVLDFK (GVf &RQVFLRXVQHVV LQ FRQWHPSRUDU\ VFLHQFH 2[IRUG &ODUHQGRQ 3UHVV $PHULFDQ 1DWLRQDO 6WDQGDUGV ,QVWLWXWH f $PHULFDQ QDWLRQDO VWDQGDUG \FKRDFRXVWLFDO WHUPLQRORJ\ $16, 6 UHYLVLRQ f 1HZ
PAGE 325

%DOD\ $UERU $ t 6KHYULQ + f 63$ LV VXEOLPLQDO EXW LV LW SV\FKRG\QDWQLFDOO\ DFWLYDWLQJ" $PHULFDQ 3V\FKRORJLVWf %DOD\ t 6KHYULQ + f 7KH VXEOLPLQDO SV\FKRG\QDPLF DFWLYDWLRQ PHWKRG $ FULWLFDO UHYLHZ $PHULFDQ 3V\FKRORJLVW %DORWD '$ f 8QFRQVFLRXV VHPDQWLF SURFHVVLQJ 7KH SHQGXOXP NHHSV RQ VZLQJLQJ %HKDYLRUDO DQG %UDLQ 6FLHQFHV f %DOWKD]DUG &* f 7KH K\SQRVLV VFDOHV DW WKHLU FHQWHQDU\ 6RPH IXQGDPHQWDO LVVXHV VWLOO XQUHVROYHG ,QWHUQDWLRQDO -RXUQDO RI &OLQLFDO DQG ([SHULPHQWDO +\SQRVLV f %DOWKD]DUG &* t :RRG\ (= f 7KH VWXII SHUIRUPDQFH $ UHYLHZ RI SV\FKRPHWULF DSSURDFKHV %XOOHWLQ f RI K\SQRWLF 3V\FKRORJLFDO %DQ\DL (, f 7RZDUG D VRFLDOSV\FKRELRORJLFDO PRGHO RI K\SQRVLV ,Q 6/\QQ t -: (KXH (GVf 7KHRULHV RI K\SQRVLV &XUUHQW PRGHOV DQG SHUVSHFWLYHV 1HZ
PAGE 326

%DWHV %/ t %ULJKDP 7$ f 0RGLI\LQJ K\SQRWL]DELOLW\ ZLWK WKH &DUOHWRQ 6NLOO 7UDLQLQJ 3URJUDP $ SDUWLDO UHSOLFDWLRQ DQG DQ DQDO\VLV RI FRPSRQHQWV ,QWHUQDWLRQDO -RXUQDO RI &OLQLFDO DQG ([SHULPHQWDO +\SQRVLV %HDKUV -2 f &RFRQVFLRXVQHVV $ FRPPRQ GHQRPLQDWRU LQ K\SQRVLV PXOWLSOH SHUVRQDOLW\ DQG QRUPDOF\ $PHULFDQ -RXUQDO RI &OLQLFDO +YPRVLV A %HDQ % : t 'XII -/ f 7KH HIIHFWV RI YLGHR WDSH DQG RI VLWXDWLRQDO DQG JHQHUDOL]HG ORFXV RI FRQWURO XSRQ K\SQRWLF VXVFHSWLELOLW\ $PHULFDQ -RXUQDO RI &OLQLFDO +\SQRVLV f %HQHV .0 *XWNLQ 7% t 'HFNHU 71 f 7KH HIIHFWV RI PHOORZ DQG IUHQHWLF PXVLF RQ UHSRUWHG FRJQLWLRQV UHVXOWLQJ IURP DXGLWRU\ VXEOLPLQDO PHVVDJHV -RXUQDO RI *HQHUDO 3V\FKRORJ\ f %HQVRQ + $PV 3$ t +RIIPDQ -: f 7KH UHOD[DWLRQ UHVSRQVH DQG K\SQRVLV ,QWHUQDWLRQDO -RXUQDO RI &OLQLFDO DQG ([SHULPHQWDO +\SQRVLV %HQWOHU 3 0 t +LOJDUG (5 f $ FRPSDULVRQ RI JURXS DQG LQGLYLGXDO LQGXFWLRQ RI K\SQRVLV ZLWK VHOIVFRULQJ DQG REVHUYHU VFRULQJ ,QWHUQDWLRQDO -RXUQDO RI &OLQLFDO DQG ([SHULPHQWDO +\SQRVLV %HQWOHU 30 t 5REHUWV 05 f +\SQRWLF VXVFHSWLELOLW\ DVVHVVHG LQ ODUJH JURXSV ,QWHUQDWLRQDO -RXUQDO RI &OLQLFDO DQG ([SHULPHQWDO +\SQRVLV %HUQVWHLQ ,+ %LVVRQQHWWH 9 9\DV $ t %DUFOD\ 3 f 6HPDQWLF SULPLQJ 6XEOLPLQDO SHUFHSWLRQ RU FRQWH[W" 3HUFHSWLRQ t 3V\FKRSK\VLFV f %HUULJDQ /3 .XUW] 50 6WDELOH -3 t 6WUXEH 0f 'XUDELOLW\ RI SRVWK\SQRWLF VXJJHVWLRQV DV D IXQFWLRQ RI W\SH RI VXJJHVWLRQ DQG WUDQFH GHSWK ,QWHUQDWLRQDO -RXUQDO RI &OLQLFDO DQG ([SHULPHQWDO +\SQRVLV f %HUWUDQG /' 6WDP +t 5DGWNH +/ f 7KH &DUOHWRQ 6NLOOV 7UDLQLQJ 3DFNDJH IRU PRGLI\LQJ K\SQRWLF VXVFHSWLELOLW\ $ UHSOLFDWLRQ DQG H[WHQVLRQ ,QWHUQDWLRQDO -RXUQDO RI &OLQLFDO DQG ([SHULPHQWDO +\SQRVLV f %HYDQ : f 6XEOLPLQDO VWLPXODWLRQ $ SHUYDVLYH SUREOHP IRU SV\FKRORJ\ 3V\FKRORJLFDO %XOOHWLQ %LVLDFK ( f 7KURXJK WKH ORRNLQJJODVV DQG ZKDW FRJQLWLYH SV\FKRORJ\ IRXQG WKHUH %HKDYLRUDO DQG %UDLQ 6FLHQFHV f

PAGE 327

%ODFN 6 t :LJDQ (5 f $Q LQYHVWLJDWLRQ RI VHOHFWLYH GHDIQHVV SURGXFHG E\ GLUHFW VXJJHVWLRQ XQGHU K\SQRVLV %ULWLVK 0HGLFDO -RXUQDO %OXP *6 f $ FDVH VWXG\ RI K\SQRWLFDOO\ LQGXFHG WXEXODU YLVLRQ ,QWHUQDWLRQDO -RXUQDO RI &OLQLFDO DQG ([SHULPHQWDO +\SQRVLV f %RUJHDW ) %RLVVRQQHDXOW &KDORXOW / t (OLH 5 f 3V\FKRSK\VLRORJLFDO UHVSRQVHV WR VXEOLPLQDO DXGLWRU\ VXJJHVWLRQV IRU DFWLYDWLRQ 3HUFHSWXDO DQG 0RWRU 6NLOOV %RUJHDW ) &KDERW 5 t &KDORXOW / f 3HUFHSWLRQ VXEOLPLQDOH HW QLYHDX[ GnDFWLYDWLRQ &DQDGLDQ -RXUQDO RI 3V\FKLDWU\ %RUJHDW ) (OLH 5 &KDORXOW / t &KDERW 5 f 3V\FKRSK\VLRORJLFDO UHVSRQVHV WR PDVNHG DXGLWRU\ VWLPXOL &DQDGLDQ -RXUQDO RI 3V\FKLDWU\ %RUJHDW ) t *RXOHW f 3V\FKRSK\VLRORJLFDO FKDQJHV IROORZLQJ DXGLWRU\ VXEOLPLQDO VXJJHVWLRQV IRU DFWLYDWLRQ DQG GHDFWLYDWLRQ 3HUFHSWXDO DQG 0RWRU 6NLOOV %RPVWHLQ 5) f ([SRVXUH DQG DIIHFW 2YHUYLHZ DQG PHWDDQDO\VLV RI UHVHDUFK 3V\FKRORJLFDO %XOOHWLQ f %RPVWHLQ 5) Df &ULWLFDO LPSRUWDQFH RI VWLPXOXV XQDZDUHQHVV IRU WKH SURGXFWLRQ RI VXEOLPLQDO SV\FKRG\QDPLF DFWLYDWLRQ HIIHFWV 7KH -RXUQDO RI 1HUYRXV DQG 0HQWDO 'LVHDVH f %RPVWHLQ 5) Ef 3HUFHSWLRQ ZLWKRXW DZDUHQHVV 5HWURVSHFW DQG SURVSHFW ,Q 5) %RPVWHLQ t 76 3LWWPDQ (GVf 3HUFHSWLRQ ZLWKRXW DZDUHQHVV 1HZ
PAGE 328

%RZHUV t 0HLFKHQEDXP f ,QWURGXFWLRQ ,Q .6 %RZHUV t 0HLFKHQEDXP (GVf 7KH XQFRQVFLRXV UHFRQVLGHUHG 1HZ
PAGE 329

&KHHN '% f +\SQRVLV 7KH DSSOLFDWLRQ RI LGHRPRWRU WHFKQLTXHV %RVWRQ $OO\Q t %DFRQ &KHHVPDQ t 0HULNOH 30 f 3ULPLQJ ZLWK DQG ZLWKRXW DZDUHQHVV 3HUFHSWLRQ t 3V\FKRFKYVLFV f &KHHVPDQ t 0HULNOH 30 f 'LVWLQJXLVKLQJ FRQVFLRXV IURP XQFRQVFLRXV SHUFHSWXDO SURFHVVHV &DQDGLDQ -RXUQDO RI 3V\FKRORJ\ &KHUWRN / f +\SQRVLV 7KH SV\FKRELRORJLFDO FURVVURDGV D \HDU JXHU\ -RXUQDO RI 1HUYRXV DQG 0HQWDO 'LVHDVH f &KHUWRN / f 5HLQVWDWHPHQW RI WKH FRQFHSW RI WKH XQFRQVFLRXV LQ WKH 6RYLHW 8QLRQ $PHULFDQ -RXUQDO RI 3V\FKLDWU\ f &KHUWRN / f 7KH XQFRQVFLRXV DQG K\SQRVLV ,QWHUQDWLRQDO -RXUQDO RI &OLQLFDO DQG ([SHULPHQWDO +\SQRVLV f &RH :& f )XUWKHU QRUPV RQ WKH +DUYDUG *URXS 6FDOH RI +\SQRWLF 6XVFHSWLELOLW\ )RUP $ ,QWHUQDWLRQDO -RXUQDO RI &OLQLFDO DQG ([SHULPHQWDO +\SQRVLV f &RH :& f ([SHULPHQWDO GHVLJQV DQG WKH VWDWHQRQVWDWH LVVXH LQ K\SQRVLV $PHULFDQ -RXUQDO RI &OLQLFDO +\SQRVLV f &RH :& f +\SQRVLV :KHUHIRUH DUW WKRX" ,QWHUQDWLRQDO -RXUQDO RI &OLQLFDO DQG ([SHULPHQWDO +\SQRVLV f &RH :& t 6DUELQ 75 f +\SQRVLV IURP WKH VWDQGSRLQW RI D FRQWH[WXDOLVW $QQDOV RI 1< $FDGHP\ RI 6FLHQFHV &RKHQ %+ f 5ROH RI DZDUHQHVV LQ PHDQLQJ HVWDEOLVKHG E\ FODVVLFDO FRQGLWLRQLQJ -RXUQDO RI ([SHULPHQWDO 3V\FKRORJ\ f &RQQ -+ f 7KH P\WK RI FRHUFLRQ WKURXJK K\SQRVLV ,QWHUQDWLRQDO -RXUQDO RI &OLQLFDO DQG ([SHULPHQWDO +\SQRVLV f &RUWHHQ 56 f (OHFWURGHUPDO UHVSRQVHV WR ZRUGV LQ DQ LUUHOHYDQW PHVVDJH $ SDUWLDO UHDSSUDLVDO %HKDYLRUDO DQG %UDLQ 6FLHQFHV f &RUWHHQ 56 t :RRG % f $XWRQRPLF UHVSRQVHV WR VKRFNDVVRFLDWHG ZRUGV LQ DQ XQDWWHQGHG FKDQQHO -RXUQDO RI ([SHULPHQWDO 3V\FKRORJ\ f &RUWHHQ 56 t 'XQQ f 6KRFNDVVRFLDWHG ZRUGV LQ D QRQDWWHQGHG PHVVDJH $ WHVW IRU PRPHQWDU\ DZDUHQHVV -RXUQDO RI ([SHULPHQWDO 3V\FKRORJ\ f

PAGE 330

&RXQFLO 5 .LUVFK t +DIQHU /3 f ([SHFWDQF\ YHUVXV DEVRUEWLRQ LQ WKH SUHGLFWLRQ RI K\SQRWLF UHVSRQGLQJ -RXUQDO RI 3HUVRQDOLW\ DQG 6RFLDO 3V\FKRORJ\ &RYLQR 1$ t )UDQNHO )+ f +\SQRVLV DQG UHOD[DWLRQ LQ WKH PHGLFDOO\ LOO 3V\FKRWKHUDS\ DQG 3V\FKRVRQDWLFV &UDZIRUG +0DFGRQDOG + t +LOJDUG (5 f +\SQRWLF GHDIQHVV $ SV\FKRSK\VLFDO VWXG\ RI UHVSRQVHV WR WRQH LQWHQVLW\ DV PRGLILHG E\ K\SQRVLV $PHULFDQ -RXUQDO RI 3V\FKRORJ\ f &URQLQ '0 6SDQRV 13 t %DUEHU 7; f $XJPHQWLQJ K\SQRWLF VXJJHVWLELOLW\ E\ SURYLGLQJ IDYRUDEOH LQIRUPDWLRQ DERXW K\SQRVLV $PHULFDQ -RXUQDO RI &OLQLFDO +\SQRVLV f &URXVH ( t .XUW] 5 f (QKDQFLQJ K\SQRWLF VXVFHSWLELOLW\ 7KH HIILFDF\ RI IRXU WUDLQLQJ SURFHGXUHV $PHULFDQ -RXUQDO RI &OLQLFDO +\SQRVLV f 5* f $ KLVWRU\ RI VXEOLPLQDO SHUFHSWLRQ LQ DXWRELRJUDSK\ %HKDYLRUDO DQG %UDLQ 6FLHQFHV f 'DJHQEDFK f 7DVNLQGXFHG VWUDWHJLHV DQG QHDUWKUHVKROG SULPLQJ &RQVFLRXV LQIOXHQFHV RQ XQFRQVFLRXV SHUFHSWLRQ -RXUQDO RI 0HPRU\ DQG /DQJXDJH 'DUE\ % f 7KH HIIHFWV RI SV\FKRORJLFDO LQWHUYHQWLRQ RQ WKH LPPXQH UHVSRQVH 'RFWRUDO GLVVHUWDWLRQ 8QLYHUVLW\ RI )ORULGDf 'LVVHUWDWLRQ $EVWUDFWV ,QWHUQDWLRQDO 80, 'H%HQHGLWWLV *+ t 6LURQL 9 f $URXVDO HIIHFWV RI HOHFWULFDO GHHS EUDLQ VWLPXODWLRQ LQ K\SQRVLV ,QWHUQDWLRQDO -RXUQDO RI &OLQLFDO DQG ([SHULPHQWDO +\SQRVLV f 'H.RQLQFN -0 t .RXODFN f 'UHDP FRQWHQW DQG DGDSWDWLRQ WR D VWUHVVIXO VLWXDWLRQ -RXUQDO RI $EQRUPDO 3V\FKRORJ\ 'HSDVFDO LV 9 t 3DOXPER f ((* DOSKD DV\PPHWU\ 7DVN GLIILFXOW\ DQG K\SQRWL]DELLW\ 3HUFHSWXDO DQG 0RWRU 6NLOOV 'HSDVFDOLV 9 t 3HQQD 30 f +] ((* DFWLYLW\ GXULQJ K\SQRWLF LQGXFWLRQ DQG K\SQRWLF WHVWLQJ ,QWHUQDWLRQDO -RXUQDO RI &OLQLFDO DQG ([SHULPHQWDO +\SQRVLV f 'H:LWW *: t $YHULOO -5 f /DWHUDO H\H PRYHPHQWV +\SQRWLF VXVFHSWLELOLW\ DQG ILHOG LQGHSHQGHQFHGHSHQGHQFH 3HUFHSWXDO DQG 0RWRU 6NLOOV 'LDPRQG 0f $FFHVVLQJ DUFKDLF LQYROYHPHQW 7RZDUG XQUDYHOLQJ WKH P\VWHU\ RI (ULFNVRQnV K\SQRVLV ,QWHUQDWLRQDO -RXUQDO RI &OLQLFDO DQG ([SHULPHQWDO +\SQRVLV f

PAGE 331

'L[RQ 1) t /HDU 7( f (OHFWURHQFHSKDORJUDSK FRUUHODWHV RI WKUHVKROG UHJXODWLRQ 1DWXUH f 'L[RQ 1 f 3UHFRQVFLRXV SURFHVVLQJ &KLFKHVWHU -RKQ :LOH\ t 6RQV 'L[RQ 1) f 2Q SULYDWH HYHQWV DQG EUDLQ HYHQWV %HKDYLRUDO DQG UDLQ 6FLHQFHV f 'L[RQ 1) t +HQOH\ 6+ f 3HUVRQDOLW\ IDFWRUV DQG VXEOLPLQDO SHUFHSWLRQ ,Q 8 +HQWVFKHO 6PLWK t -* 'UDJXQV (GVf 7KH URRWV RI SHUFHSWLRQ ,QGLYLGXDO GLIIHUHQFHV LQ LQIRUPDWLRQ SURFHVVLQJ ZLWKLQ DQG EH\RQG DZDUHQHVV $PVWHUGDP (OVHYLHU 6FLHQFH 3XEOLVKLQJ &R 'L[RQ 1) t +HQOH\ 6+ f 8QFRQVFLRXV SHUFHSWLRQ 3RVVLEOH LPSOLFDWLRQV RI GDWD IURP DFDGHPLF UHVHDUFK IRU FOLQLFDO SUDFWLFH -RXUQDO RI 1HUYRXV DQG 0HQWDO 'LVHDVH 'ROE\ 5 t 6KHHKDQ 3: f &RJQLWLYH SURFHVVLQJ DQG H[SHFWDQF\ EHKDYLRU LQ K\SQRVLV -RXUQDO RI $EQRUPDO 3V\FKRORJ\ f 'UDJXQV -* f 6XEOLPLQDO SHUFHSWLRQ DV WKH ILUVW VWDJH RI WKH SHUFHSWXDO SURFHVV &DQ SHUVRQDOLW\ EH UHYHDOHG VR HDUO\ LQ WKH VHTXHQFH" ,Q 8 +HQWVFKHO 6PLWK t -* 'UDJXQV (GVf 7KH URRWV RI SHUFHSWLRQ ,QGLYLGXDO GLIIHUHQFHV LQ LQIRUPDWLRQ SURFHVVLQJ ZLWKLQ DQG EHYRQG DZDUHQHVV $PVWHUGDP (OVHYLHU 6FLHQFH 3XEOLVKLQJ &R 'XODQ\ '( &DUOVRQ 5$ t 'HZH\ *, f $ FDVH RI V\QWDFWLFDO OHDUQLQJ DQG MXGJHPHQW +RZ FRQVFLRXV DQG KHZ DEVWUDFW" -RXUQDO RI ([SHULPHQWDO 3V\FKRORJ\ *HQHUDO f 'XQFDQ f 7ZR WHFKQLTXHV IRU LQYHVWLJDWLQJ SHUFHSWLRQ ZLWKRXW DZDUHQHVV 3HUFHSWLRQ t 3V\FKRSK\VLFV f (DJOH 0 f 3HUVRQDOLW\ FRUUHODWHV RI VHQVLWLYLW\ WR VXEOLPLQDO VWLPXODWLRQ -RXUQDO RI 1HUYRXV DQG 0HQWDO 'LVHDVH nf (GPRQG 0% t :HQ]HO 53 f (WKLFDO FRQVLGHUDWLRQV LQ WKH XVH RI VXEOLPLQDO VWLPXODWLRQ WR LPSURYH KDQGZDVKLQJ FRPSOLDQFH VFLHQWLILF XWLOLW\ YHUVXV DXWRQRP\ RI WKH LQGLYLGXDO ,QIHFWLRQ &RQWURO DQG +RVSLWDO (SLGHPLRORJ\ f (GPRQVWRQ :( -U f 7KH LQGXFWLRQ RI K\SQRVLV 1HZ
PAGE 332

(GZDUGV f 'XUDWLRQ RI SRVWK\SQRWLF HIIHFW %ULWLVK -RXUQDO RI 3V\FKLDWU\ (LFK ( f 0HPRU\ IRU XQDWWHQGHG HYHQWV 5HPHPEHULQJ ZLWK DQG ZLWKRXW DZDUHQHVV 0HPRU\ DQG &RJQLWLRQ f LOHUV : t 0XQ] f (YRNHG SRWHQWLDOV DV XQFRQVFLRXV LQGLFDWRUV RI FRQVFLRXV FRQWURO t -* 'UDJXQV (GVf 7KH URRWV RI SHUFHSWLRQ ,Q 8 +HQWVFKHO 6PLWK ,QGLYLGXDO GLIIHUHQFHV LQ LQIRUPDWLRQ SURFHVVLQJ ZLWKLQ DQG EH\RQG DZDUHQHVV $PVWHUGDP (OVHYLHU 6FLHQFH 3XEOLVKLQJ &R (ONLQV *5 *DPLQR /$ t 5\QHDUVRQ 55 f 0DVV SV\FKRJHQLF LOOQHVV WUDQFH VWDWHV DQG VXJJHVWLRQ $PHULFDQ -RXUQDO RI &OLQLFDO +\SQRVLV f (SVWHLQ 6f &RJQLWLYHH[SHULHQWLDO VHOI WKHRU\ ,Q /$ 3HUYLQ (Gf +DQGERRN RI SHUVRQDOLW\ 7KHRU\ DQG UHVHDUFK 1HZ
PAGE 333

(ULFNVRQ 0+ t 5RVVL (/ f ([SHULHQFLQJ K\SQRVLV 7KHUDSHXWLF DSSURDFKHV WR DOWHUHG VWDWHV 1HZ
PAGE 334

)OHUDLQJHU 6 f 6HHLQJ LV EHOLHYLQJ +LH UROH RI nSUHFRQVFLRXVn SHUFHSWXDO SURFHVVLQJ LQ GHOXVLRQDO PLVLGHQWLILFDWLRQ %ULWLVK -RXUQDO RI 3V\FKLDWU\ )RXULH '3 t /LIVFKLW] 6 f +\SQRVLV 'HSWK RU ZLGWK" 3HUFHSWXDO DQG 0RWRU 6NLOOV )RZOHU &$ f $Q RSHUDWLRQDO GHILQLWLRQ RI FRQVFLRXV DZDUHQHVV PXVW EH UHVSRQVLEOH WR VXEMHFWLYH H[SHULHQFH %HKDYLRUDO DQG %UDLQ 6FLHQFHV f )UDQNHO ) $SIHO 5 .HOO\ 6 %HQVRQ + 4XLQQ 7 1HZPDUN t 0DOPDXG 5 f 7KH XVH RI K\SQRWL]DELOLW\ VFDOHV LQ WKH FOLQLF $ UHYLHZ DIWHU VL[ \HDUV ,QWHUQDWLRQDO -RXUQDO RI &OLQLFDO DQG ([SHULPHQWDO +\SQRVLV )UDXPDQ '& /\QQ 6+DUGDZD\ 5 t 0ROWHQL $ f (IIHFW RI VXEOLPLQDO V\PELRWLF DFWLYDWLRQ RQ K\SQRWLF UDSSRUW DQG VXVFHSWLELOLW\ -RXUQDO RI $EQRUPDO 3V\FKRORJ\ f )UHXG 6 f +LH LQWHUSUHWDWLRQ RI GUHDPV ILUVW SXEOLVKHG LQ f ,Q 6WUDFKH\ (Gf 6WDQGDUG HGLWLRQ RI WKH FRPSOHWH SV\FKRORJLFDO ZRUNV RI 6LJPXQG )UHXG 9RO f /RQGRQ +RJDUWK )URPP ( Df +LH QDWXUH RI K\SQRVLV DQG RWKHU DOWHUHG VWDWHV RI FRQVFLRXVQHVV ,Q ( )URPP t 5( 6KRU (GVf +\SQRVLV 'HYHORSPHQWV LQ UHVHDUFK DQG QHZ SHUVSHFWLYHV 1HZ
PAGE 335

)XGLQ 5 t %HQMDPLQ & f 6XEOLPLQDO SV\FKRG\QDPLF DFWLYDWLRQ 8SGDWHG FRPSUHKHQVLYH OLVW RI H[SHULPHQWDO UHVXOWV DQG FRPPHQWV RQ SUHYLRXV OLVWV 3HUFHSWXDO DQG 0RWRU 6NLOOV )KUHU 0t (ULNVHQ &: f 7KH XQFRQVFLRXV SHUFHSWLRQ RI WKH PHDQLQJ RI YHUEDO VWLPXOL -RXUQDO RI $EQRUPDO DQG 6RFLDO 3V\FKRORJ\ f *DOLQ f ,PSOLFDWLRQV IRU SV\FKLDWU\ RI OHIW DQG ULJKW FHUHEUDO VSHFLDOL]DWLRQ $ QHXURSK\VLRORJLFDO FRQWH[W IRU XQFRQVFLRXV SURFHVVHV $UFKLYHV RI *HQHUDO 3V\FKLDWU\ *HDUDQ 3 t .LUVFK f 5HVSRQVH H[SHFWDQF\ DV D PHGLDWRU RI K\SQRWL]DELOLW\ PRGLILFDWLRQ $ EULHI FRPPXQLFDWLRQ 7KH ,QWHUQDWLRQDO -RXUQDO RI &OLQLFDO DQG ([SHULPHQWDO +\SQRVLV f *HRUJH 6* t -HQQLQJV /% f (IIHFW RI VXEOLPLQDO VWLPXOL RQ FRQVXPHU EHKDYLRU 1HJDWLYH HYLGHQFH 3HUFHSWXDO DQG 0RWRU 6NLOOV *KHRUJKLX 9$ t .UXVH 3 f 7KH SV\FKRORJ\ RI VXJJHVWLRQ $Q LQWHJUDWLYH SHUVSHFWLYH ,Q ) 6FKXPDNHU (Gf +XPDQ VXJJHVWLELOLW\ $GYDQFHV LQ WKHRU\ UHVHDUFK DQG DSSOLFDWLRQ 1HZ
PAGE 336

*UDKDP .5 t 3HPLFDQR f /DWHUDOLW\ K\SQRVLV DQG WKH DXWRNLQHWLF HIIHFW $PHULFDQ -RXUQDO RI &OLQLFDO +\SQRVLV f *UDYLW] 0$ t *HUWRQ 0, f 2ULJLQV RI WKH WHUP K\SQRWLVP SULRU WR EUDLG $PHULFDQ -RXUQDO RI &OLQLFDO +\SQRVLV f *UHHQEHUJ $& f 6XEOLPLQDO SV\FKRG\QDPLF DFWLYDWLRQ PHWKRG DQG DQQLKLODWLRQ DQ[LHW\ 3UHOLPLQDU\ ILQGLQJV 3HUFHSWXDO DQG 0RWRU 6NLOOV *UHHQZDOG $* f 1HZ /RRN 8QFRQVFLRXV FRJQLWLRQ UHFODLPHG $PHULFDQ 3V\FKRORJLVW *URHJHU -$ f 3UHGRPLQDQW DQG QRQSUHGRPLQDQW DQDO\VLV (IIHFWV RI OHYHO RI SUHVHQWDWLRQ %ULWLVK -RXUQDO RI 3V\FKRORJ\ *URWK0DPDW f +\SQRWL ]DEL LW\ VXJJHVWLELOLW\ DQG SV\FKRSDWKRORJ\ $Q RYHUYLHZ RI UHVHDUFK ,Q ) 6FKXPDNHU (Gf +XPDQ VXJJHVWLELOLW\ $GYDQFHV LQ WKHRU\ UHVHDUFK DQG DSSOLFDWLRQ 1HZ
PAGE 337

+DOO 0' t 3DVWDUH 5( f 0XVLFDO GXSOH[ SHUFHSWLRQ 3HUFHSWLRQ RI ILJXUDOO\ JRRG FKRUGV ZLWK VXEOLPLQDO GLVWLQJXLVKLQJ WRQHV -RXUQDO RI ([SHULPHQWDO 3V\FKRORJ\ f +DPPRQG '& (Gf f +DQGERRN RI K\SQRWLF VXJJHVWLRQV DQG PHWDSKRUVA 1HZ
PAGE 338

+LOJDUG (5 f +LH KLGGHQ REVHUYHU DQG PXOWLSOH SHUVRQDOLW\ ,QWHUQDWLRQDO -RXUQDO RI &OLQLFDO DQG ([SHULPHQWDO +\SQRVLV f +LOJDUG (5 f 'LYLGHG FRQVFLRXVQHVV 0XOWLSOH FRQWUROV LQ KXPDQ WKRXJKW DQG DFWLRQ 1HZ
PAGE 339

+XGHVPDQ 7MHXZ 0 t &ROOLQV 3 f 5HVSRQVLYHQHVV WR YHUEDO LQVWUXFWLRQ GXULQJ DQHVWKHVLD $ SLORW UHSRUW 3HUFHSWXDO DQG 0RWRU 6NLOOV +XJKHV -$ 6DQGHUV /' 'XQQH -$ 7DUSH\ t 9LFNHUV 0' f 5HGXFLQJ VPRNLQJ 7KH HIIHFW RI VXJJHVWLRQ GXULQJ JHQHUDO DQDHVWKHVLD RQ SRVWRSHUDWLYH VPRNLQJ KDELWV $QDHVWKHVLD ,QKRII $: f $WWHQWLRQDO RULHQWLQJ SUHFHGHV FRQVFLRXV LGHQWLILFDWLRQ %HKDYLRUDO DQG %UDLQ 6FLHQFHV f ,RQHVFX 0' t (UGHO\L 0+ f 7KH GLUHFW UHFRYHU\ RI VXEOLPLQDO VWLPXOL ,Q 5) %RPVWHLQ t 76 3LWWPDQ (GVf 3HUFHSWLRQ ZLWKRXW DZDUHQHVV 1HZ
PAGE 340

-RVHSK 5 f 7KH QHXURSV\FKRORJ\ RI GHYHORSPHQW +HPLVSKHULF ODWHUDOLW\ OLPELF ODQJXDJH DQG WKH RULJLQ RI WKRXJKW -RXUQDO RI &OLQLFDO 3V\FKRORJ\ -RVHSK 5 f 7KH ULJKW EUDLQ DQG WKH XQFRQVFLRXV 'LVFRYHULQJ WKH VWUDQJHU ZLWKLQ 1HZ
PAGE 341

.LUVFK &RXQFLO -5 t :LFNOHVV & f 6XEMHFWLYH VFRULQJ IRU WKH +DUYDUG *URXS 6FDOH RI +\SQRWLF 6XVFHSWLELOLW\ )RUP $ ,QWHUQDWLRQDO -RXUQDO RI &OLQLFDO DQG ([SHULPHQWDO +\SQRVLV f .OHLQKDX] 0 t (OL f 3RWHQWLDO GHOHWHULRXV HIIHFWV RI K\SQRVLV LQ WKH FOLQLFDO VHWWLQJ $PHULFDQ -RXUQDO RI &OLQLFDO +\SQRVLV f .RVWDQGRY ($ t $U]XPDQRY
PAGE 342

/DXUHQFH -5 t 3HUU\ & f 7KH KLGGHQ REVHUYHU SKHQRPHQRQ LQ K\SQRVLV 6RPH DGGLWLRQDO ILQGLQJV -RXUQDO RI $EQRUPDO 3V\FKRORJ\ f /DXUHQFH -5 3HUU\ & t .LKOVWURP f +LGGHQ REVHUYHU SKHQRPHQD LQ K\SQRVLV $Q H[SHULPHQWDO FUHDWLRQ" -RXUQDO RI 3HUVRQDOLW\ DQG 6RFLDO 3V\FKRORJ\ /HDKH\ 7+ f $ KLVWRU\ RI SV\FKRORJ\ (QJOHZRRG &OLIIV 3UHQWLFH +DOO /HQKDUGW 0/ 6NHOOHWW 5 :DQJ 3 t &ODUNH $0 f +XPDQ XOWUDVRQLF VSHHFK SHUFHSWLRQ 6FLHQFH /HYLQH -/ .XUW] 50 t /DXWQHU -/ f +\SQRVLV DQG LWV HIIHFW RQ OHIW DQG ULJKW KHPLVSKHUH DFWLYLW\ %LRORJLFDO 3V\FKLDWU\ f /HYLQH 60 f 7KH HIIHFWV RI DZDUHQHVV RQ YHUEDO FRQGLWLRQLQJ -RXUQDO RI ([SHULPHQWDO 3V\FKRORJ\ f /HYLWW (( $URQRII 0RUJDQ & 2YHUOH\ 0 t 3DUULVK 0f 7HVWLQJ WKH FRHUFLYH SFZHU RI K\SQRVLV &RPPLWWLQJ REMHFWLRQDEOH DFWV ,QWHUQDWLRQDO -RXUQDO RI &OLQLFDO DQG ([SHULPHQWDO +\SQRVLV f /HYLWW (( t &KDSPDQ 5+ f +\SQRVLV DV D UHVHDUFK PRGHO ,Q ( )URPP t 5( 6KRU (GVf +\SQRVLV 'HYHORSPHQWV LQ UHVHDUFK DQG QHZ SHUVSHFWLYHV 1HZ
PAGE 343

/RYHQ )& f 5HYHUEHUDWLRQ PDVNLQJ ILOWHULQJ DQG OHYHO HIIHFWV RQ VSHHFK UHFRJQLWLRQ SHUIRUPDQFH -RXUQDO RI 6SHHFK DQG +HDULQJ 5HVHDUFK /XFH 5' t 1RVRIVN\ 50 f $WWHQWLRQ VWLPXOXV UDQJH DQG LGHQWLILFDWLRQ RI ORXGQHVV ,Q 6 .RPEOXP t 5HTXLQ (GVf 3UHSDUDWRU\ VWDWHV DQG SURFHVVHV +LOOVGDOH /DZUHQFH (UOEDXP $VVRFLDWHV /XSNHU 6f &RQVFLRXV LGHQWLILFDWLRQ :KHUH GR \RX GUDZ WKH OLQH" %HKDYLRUDO DQG %UDLQ 6FLHQFHV f /\GLFN 5 f )HGHUDWLRQ RI WKH $PHULFDQ -RXUQDO f RI UHJXODWRU\ SK\VLRORJ\ IRU ([SHULPHQWDO %LRORJ\ )$6(% /\QQ 6t 5KXH -: Df 7KHRULHV RI K\SQRVLV $Q LQWURGXFWLRQ ,Q 6/\QQ t -: 5KXH (GVf 7KHRULHV RI K\SQRVLV &XUUHQW PRGHOV DQG SHUVSHFWLYHV 1HZ
PAGE 344

0DUFHO $Df &RQVFLRXV DQG XQFRQVFLRXV SHUFHSWLRQ ([SHULPHQWV RQ YLVXDO PDVNLQJ DQG ZRUG UHFRJQLWLRQ &RJQLWLYH 3V\FKRORJ\ 0DUFHO $Ef &RQVFLRXV DQG XQFRQVFLRXV SHUFHSWLRQ $Q DSSURDFK WR WKH UHODWLRQV EHWZHHQ SKHQRPHQDO H[SHULHQFH DQG SHUFHSWXDO SURFHVVHV &RJQLWLYH 3V\FKRORJ\ 0DUFHO $f &RQVFLRXVQHVV DQG SURFHVVLQJ &KRRVLQJ DQG WHVWLQJ D QXOO K\SRWKHVLV %HKDYLRUDO DQG %UDLQ 6FLHQFHV f 0DUJHWWV (/ f &RQFHSW RI WKH XQFRQVFLRXV LQ WKH KLVWRU\ RI PHGLFDO SV\FKRORJ\ 3V\FKLDWULF 4XDUWHUO\ f 0DUWLQ ) f ,QWURGXFWLRQ WR DXGLRORJ\ (QJOHZRRG &OLIIV 3UHQWLFH +DOO 0DVODFK & =LPEDUGR 3 t 0DUVKDOO f +\SQRVLV DV D PHDQV RI VWXG\LQJ FRJQLWLYH DQG EHKDYLRUDO FRQWURO ,Q ( )URPP t 5( 6KRU (GVf +\SQRVLV 'HYHORSPHQWV LQ UHVHDFK DQG QHZ SHUVSHFWLYHV 1HZ
PAGE 345

0HULNOH 30 f 3HUFHSWLRQ ZLWKRXW DZDUHQHVV &ULWLFDO LVVXHV $PHULFDQ 3V\FKRORJLVW f 0HULNOH 30 %HKDYLRUDO DQG t &KHHVPDQ f &RQVFLRXVQHVV LV D VXEMHFWLYH UDLQ 6FLHQFHV f 0HULNOH 30 t 5HLQJROG (0 f 5HFRJQLWLRQ DQG OH[LFDO GHFLVLRQ ZLWKRXW GHWHFWLRQ 8QFRQVFLRXV SHUFHSWLRQ" -RXUQDO RI ([SHULPHQWDO 3V\FKRORJ\ +XPDQ 3HUFHSWLRQ DQG 3HUIRUPDQFH f 0HULNOH 30 t 5HLQJROG (0 f 0HDVXULQJ XQFRQVFLRXV SHUFHSWXDO SURFHVVHV ,Q 5) %RPVWHLQ t 76 3LWWPDQ (GVf 3HUFHSWLRQ ZLWKRXW DZDUHQHVV 1HZ
PAGE 346

0RUJDQ $+ 0DF'RQDOG + t +LOJDUG (5 f ((* DOSKD /DWHUDO DV\PPHWU\ UHODWHG WR WDVN DQG K\SQRWL]DELLW\ 7KH 6RFLHW\ IRU 3V\FKRSK\VLRORDLFDO 5HVHDUFK f 0RURQH\ ( t %URVV 0 f IHFW RI VXEOLPLQDO YLVXDO PDWHULDO RQ DQ DXGLWRU\ VLJQDO GHWHFWLRQ WDVN 3HUFHSWXDO DQG 0RWRU 6NLOOV 0RUWRQ f :KDW GR \RX PHDQ E\ FRQVFLRXV" %HKDYLRUDO DQG %UDLQ 6FLHQFHV f 0RVV 7 3DXOVRQ 0&KDQJ $) t /HYLWW 0 f +\SQRVLV DQG (63 $ FRQWUROOHG H[SHULPHQW $PHULFDQ -RXUQDO RI &OLQLFDO +\SQRVLV f 1DGRQ 5 /DXUHQFH -5 t 3HUU\ & f 7KH WZR GLVFLSOLQHV RI VFLHQWLILF K\SQRVLV $ V\QHUJLVWLF PRGHO ,Q 6/\QQ t -: 5KXH (GVf 7KHRULHV RI K\SQRVLV &XUUHQW PRGHOV DQG SHUVSHFWLYHV 1HZ
PAGE 347

2UQH 07 f 7KH FRQVWUXFW RI K\SQRVLV ,PSOLFDWLRQV RI WKH GHILQLWLRQ IRU UHVHDUFK DQG SUDFWLFH ,Q :( (GPRQGVWRQ (Gf &RQFHSWXDO DQG LQYHVWLJDWLYH DSSURDFKHV WR K\SQRVLV DQG K\SQRWLF SKHQRPHQD $QQDOV RI WKH 1HZ
PAGE 348

3LJQDWLHOOR 0) &DPS & t 5DVDU /$ f 0XVLFDO PRRG LQGXFWLRQ $Q DOWHUQDWLYH WR WKH 9HOWHQ 7HFKQLTXH -RXUQDO RI $EQRUPDO 3V\FKRORJ\ 3LWWPDQ 76 f 3HUFHSWLRQ ZLWKRXW DZDUHQHVV LQ WKH VWUHDP RI EHKDYLRU 3URFHVVHV WKDW SURGXFH DQG OLPLW QRQFRQVFLRXV ELDVLQJ HIIHFWV ,Q 5) %RPVWHLQ t 76 3LWWPDQ (GVf 3HUFHSWLRQ ZLWKRXW DZDUHQHVV 1HZ
PAGE 349

5XVVHOO 7* 5RZH : t 6PRXVH $' f 6XEOLPLQDO VHOIKHOS WDSHV DQG DFDGHPLF DFKLHYHPHQW $Q HYDOXDWLRQ -JXUQD RI &RXQVHOLQJ DQG 'HYHORSPHQW 5\]O 0 f 5HYLHZ RI VRPH (63 H[SHULPHQWV ZLWK D K\SQRWLFDOO\ SUHSDUHG VXEMHFW -RXUQDO RI WKH $PHULFDQ 6RFLHW\ RI 3V\FKRVRPDWLF 'HQWLVWU\ DQG 0HGLFLQH f 6DFNHLP +$ 3DFNHU ,5 t *XU 5& f +HPLVSKHULFLW\ FRJQLWLYH VHW DQG VXVFHSWLELOLW\ WR VXEOLPLQDO SHUFHSWLRQ -RXUQDO RI $EQRUPDO 3V\FKRORJ\ f 6DOOH\ 5' f 6XESHUVRQDOLWLHV ZLWK GUHDPLQJ IXQFWLRQV LQ D SDWLHQW ZLWK PXOWLSOH SHUVRQDOLWLHV 7KH -RXUQDO RI 1HUYRXV DQG 0HQWDO 'LVHDVH f 6DO]EHUJ +& t 'H3LDQR )$ f +\SQRWL]DELOLW\ DQG WDVN PRWLYDWLQJ VXJJHVWLRQV $ IXUWKHU ORRN DW KRZ WKH\ DIIHFW SHUIRUPDQFH ,QWHUQDWLRQDO -RXUQDO RI &OLQLFDO DQG ([SHULPHQWDO +\SQRVLV f 6DUELQ 75 t 6ODJOH 5: f +\SQRVLV DQG SV\FKRSK\VLRORJLFDO RXWFRPHV ,Q ( )URPP t 5( 6KRU (GVf +\SQRVLV 'HYHORSPHQWV LQ UHVHDUFK DQG QHZ SHUVSHFWLYHV 1HZ
PAGE 350

6KHYULQ + f 6XPOLPLQDO SHUFHSWLRQ DQG GUHDPLQJ -RXUQDO RI 0LQG DQG %HKDYLRU 6KHYULQ + f 6XEOLPLQDO SHUFHSWLRQ PHPRU\ DQG FRQVFLRXVQHVV &RJQLWLYH DQG G\QDPLF SHUVSHFWLYHV ,Q 5) %RPVWHLQ t 76 3LWWPDQ (GVf 3HUFHSWLRQ ZLWKRXW DZDUHQHVV 1HZ
PAGE 351

6LOYHUPDQ /+ %URQVWHLQ $ t 0HQGHOVRKQ ( f 7KH IXUWKHU XVH RI WKH VXEOLPLQDO SV\FKRG\QDPLF DFWLYDWLRQ PHWKRG IRU WKH H[SHULPHQWDO VWXG\ RI WKH FOLQLFDO WKHRU\ RI SV\FKRDQDO\VLV 2Q WKH VSHFLILFLW\ RI WKH UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ V\PSWRPV DQG XQFRQVFLRXV FRQIOLFWV 3V\FKRWKHUDS\ 7KHRU\ 5HVHDUFK DQG 3UDFWLFH 6ORDQH 0& f $ FRPSDULVRQ RI K\SQRVLV YV ZDNLQJ VWDWH DQG YLVXDO YV QRQYLVXDO UHFDOO LQVWUXFWLRQV IRU ZLWQHVV?YLFWLP PHPRU\ UHWULHYDO LQ DFWXDO PDMRU FULPHV 'RFWRUDO 'LVVHUWDWLRQ )ORULGD 6WDWH 8QLYHUVLW\f 'LVVHUWDWLRQ $EVWUDFWV ,QWHUQDWLRQDO 80, 6PLWK $ f 7KH K\SQRWLF UHODWLRQVKLS DQG WKH KRORJUDSKLF SDUDGLJP $PHULFDQ -RXUQDO RI &OLQLFDO +\SQRVLV f 6PLWK +9 )RUUHVW ': t 6KHHKDQ (3 f 6XJJHVWHG LPSURYHPHQW PXVLF DQG WKH YLVXDO DFXLW\ RI P\RSHV D UHSO\ ,QWHUQDWLRQDO -RXUQDO RI &OLQLFDO DQG ([SHULPHQWDO +\SQRVLV f 6P\WK /' f $XGLWRU\ YLJLODQFH GXULQJ K\SQRVLV $ EULHI FRPPXQLFDWLRQ ,QWHUQDWLRQDO -RXUQDO RI &OLQLFDO DQG ([SHULPHQWDO +\SQRVLV f 6P\WK /' t /RZ\ f $XGLWRU\ YLJLODQFH GXULQJ K\SQRVLV ,QWHUQDWLRQDO -RXUQDO RI &OLQLFDO DQG ([SHULPHQWDO +\SQRVLV f 6SDQRV 13 f 0RUH RQ FRPSOLDQFH DQG WKH &DU OHWQ 6NLOOV 7UDLQLQJ 3URJUDP ULWLVK -RXUQDO RI ([SHULPHQWDO DQG &OLQLFDO +\SQRVLV 6SDQRV 13 f $ VRFLRFRJQLWLYH DSSURDFK WR K\SQRVLV ,Q 6/\QQ t -: 5KXH (GVf 7KHRULHV RI K\SQRVLV &XUUHQW PRGHOV DQG SHUVSHFWLYHV 1HZ
PAGE 352

6SDQRV 13 5LYHUV 60 t *RWWOLHE f +\SQRWLF UHVSLRQVLYLW\ PHGLWDWLRQ DQG ODWHUDOLW\ RI H\H PRYHPHQWV -RXUQDO RI $EQRUPDO 3V\FKRORJ\ f 6SHLJHO + t *UHHQOHDI 0 f 3HUVRQDOLW\ VW\OH DQG K\SQRWL]DELOLW\ 7KH IL[IOH[ FRQWLQXXP 3V\FKLDWULF 0HGLFLQH f 6SLHJHO t %DUDEDV] $) f (IIHFWV RI K\SQRWLF LQVWUXFWLRQV RQ 3 HYHQWUHDWHGSRWHQWLD DPSOLWXGHV 5HVHDUFK DQG FOLQLFDO LPSOLFDWLRQV $PHULFDQ -RXUQDO RI &OLQLFDO +\SQRVLV f 6SHOODF\ ) t :LONLQVRQ 5 f 'LFKRWLF OLVWHQLQJ DQG K\SQRWL]DELOLW\ 9DULDELOLW\ LQ HDU SUHIHUHQFH 3HUFHSWXDO DQG 0RWRU 6NLOOV 6SHQFH '3 f 6XEOLPLQDO SHUFHSWLRQ DQG SHUFHSWXDO GHIHQVH 7ZR VLGHV RI D VLQJOH SUREOHP %HKDYLRUDO 6FLHQFH 6SHQFH 3 .OHLQ / t )HUQDQGH] 5 f 6L]H DQG VKDSH RI WKH VXEOLPLQDO ZLQGRZ ,Q 8 +HQWVFKHO 6PLWK t -* 'UDJXQV (GVf 7KH URRWV RI SHUFHSWLRQ ,QGLYLGXDO GLIIHUHQFHV LQ LQIRUPDWLRQ SURFHVVLQJ ZLWKLQ DQG EH\RQG DZDUHQHVV $PVWHUGDP (OVHYLHU 6FLHQFH 3XEOLVKLQJ &R 6WDP +t 6SDQRV 13 f /DWHUDO H\HPRYHPHQWV DQG LQGLFHV RI QRQDQDO\WLF DWWHQGLQJ LQ ULJKWKDQGHG IHPDOHV 3HUFHSWXDO DQG 0RWRU 6NLOOV 6WDP +t 6SDQRV 13 f ([SHULPHQWDO GHVLJQV H[SHFWDQF\ HIIHFWV DQG K\SQRWLF DQDOJHVLD -RXUQDO RI $EQRUPDO 3V\FKRORJ\ f 6WDQJHU 7 f 7KH FRQIXVLRQ WHFKQLTXH LQ K\SQRVLV 'RFWRUDO GLVVHUWDWLRQ 8QLYHUVLW\ RI )ORULGDf 'LVVHUWDWLRQ $EVWUDFWV ,QWHUQDWLRQDO 80, 6WDQRYLFK .( t 3XUFHOO '* f 3ULPLQJ ZLWKRXW DZDUHQHVV :KDW ZDV DOO WKH IXVV DERXW" %HKDYLRUDO DQG %UDLQ 6FLHQFHV f 6WHP -$ %URZQ 0 8OHWW *$ t 6OHWWHQ f $ FRPSDULVRQ RI K\SQRVLV DFXSXQFWXUH PRUSKLQH YDOLXP DVSLULQ DQG SODFHER LQ WKH PDQDJHPHQW RI H[SHULPHQWDOO\ LQGXFHG SDLQ ,Q :( (GPRQGV WRQ (Gf &RQFHSWXDO DQG LQYHVWLJDWLYH DSSURDFKHV WR K\SQRVLV DQG K\SQRWLF SKHQRPHQD $QQDOV RI WKH 1HZ
PAGE 353

6WURVV / t 6KHYULQ + f +\SQRVLV DV D PHWKRG IRU LQYHVWLJDWLQJ XQFRQVFLRXV WKRXJKW SURFHVVHV $ UHYLHZ RI UHVHDUFK -RXUQDO RI WKH $PHULFDQ 3V\FKRDQDO\WLF $VVRFLDWLRQ 6XWFOLIIH -3 f &UHGXORXV DQG VNHSWLFDO YLHZV RI K\SQRWLF SKHQRPHQD ([SHULPHQWV RQ HVWKHVLD KDOOXFLQDWLRQ DQG GHOXVLRQ -RXUQDO RI $EQRUPDO DQG 6RFLDO 3V\FKRORJ\ f 6ZDUW /& t 0RUJDQ &/ f (IIHFWV RI VXEOLPLQDO EDFNZDUG UHFRUGHG PHVVDJHV RQ DWWLWXGHV 3HUFHSWXDO DQG 0RWRU 6NLOOV 6ZLQJOH 3* f 6XEOLPLQDO WUHDWPHQW SURFHGXUHV $ FOLQLFLDQnV JXLGH 6DUDVRWD 3URIHVVLRQDO 5HVRXUFH 3UHVV 7DORQH -0 'LDPRQG t 6WHDGPDQ & f 0RGLI\LQJ K\SQRWLF SHUIRUPDQFH E\ PHDQV RI EULHI VHQVRU\ H[SHULHQFHV ,QWHUQDWLRQDO -RXUQDO RI &OLQLFDO DQG ([SHULPHQWDO +\SQRVLV f 7DUW & f 6HOIUHSRUW VFDOHV RI K\SQRWLF GHSWK ,QWHUQDWLRQDO -RXUQDO RI &OLQLFDO DQG ([SHULPHQWDO +\SQRVLV 7DUW & ?f 4XLFN DQG FRQYHQLHQW DVVHVVPHQW RI K\SQRWLF GHSWK 6HOIUHSRUW VFDOHV $PHULFDQ -RXUQDO RI &OLQLFDO +\SQRVLV t f 7DUW & f 0HDVXULQJ WKH GHSWK RI DQ DOWHUHG VWDWH RI FRQVFLRXVQHVV ZLWK SDUWLFXODU UHIHUHQFH WR VHOIUHSRUW VFDOHV RI K\SQRWLF GHSWK ,Q ( )URPP t 56KRU (GVf +\SQRVLV 'HYHORSPHQWV LQ UHVHDUFK DQG QHZ SHUVSHFWLYHV &KLFDJR $OGLQH 7HOOHJHQ $ f 2Q PHDVXUHV DQG FRQFHSWLRQV RI K\SQRVLV $PHULFDQ -RXUQDO RI &OLQLFDO +\SQRVLV 7RODQG +RIIPDQ + t /RIWXV ( f +RZ VXJJHVWLRQ SOD\V WULFNV ZLWK PHPRU\ ,Q -) 6FKXPDNHU (Gf+XPDQ VXTJHVWLELOLW\ $GYDQFHV LQ WKHRU\ UHVHDUFK DQG DSSOLFDWLRQ 1HZ
PAGE 354

:DUG & t .HPS 6 f 5HOLJLRXV H[SHULHQFHV DOWHUHG VWDWHV RI FRQVFLRXVQHVV DQG VXJJHVWLELOLW\ &URVVFXOWXUDO DQG KLVWRULFDO ,Q -) 6FKXPDNHU (Gf +XPDQ VXDDHVWLELW\ LQ WKHRU\ UHVHDUFK DQG DSSOLFDWLRQ 1HZ
PAGE 355

:HVWHUOXQGK % t 6MREDFN + f $FWLYDWLRQ RI LQWUDSV\FKLF FRQIOLFW DQG GHIHQVH 7KH DPDXURVFRSLF WHFKQLTXH ,Q 8 +HQWVFKHO 6PLWK t -* 'UDJXQV (GVf 7KH URRWV RI SHUFHSWLRQ ,QGLYLGXDO GLIIHUHQFHV LQ LQIRUPDWLRQ SURFHVVLQJ ZLWKLQ DQG EH\RQG DZDUHQHVV $PVWHUGDP (OVHYLHU 6FLHQFH 3XEOLVKLQJ &R :KDOHQ '+ t /LEHUPDQ $0 f 6SHHFK SHUFHSWLRQ WDNHV SUHFHGHQFH RYHU QRQVSHHFK SHUFHSWLRQ 6FLHQFH :K\WH // f 7KH XQFRQVFLRXV EHIRUH )UHXG 1HZ
PAGE 356

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

PAGE 357

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

PAGE 358

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

PAGE 359

81,9(56,7< 2) )/25,'$

PAGE 360

81,9(56,7< 2) )/25,'$