Title: State and Natiional Water Use Trends to the Year 2000
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 Material Information
Title: State and Natiional Water Use Trends to the Year 2000
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Language: English
Publisher: US Government Printing Office, Washington, 1980
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Spatial Coverage: North America -- United States of America -- Florida
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Abstract: Jake Varn Collection - State and Natiional Water Use Trends to the Year 2000 (JDV Box 91)
General Note: Box 23, Folder 1 ( Miscellaneous Water Papers, Studies, Reports, Newsletters, Booklets, Annual Reports, etc. - 1973 -1992 ), Item 1
Funding: Digitized by the Legal Technology Institute in the Levin College of Law at the University of Florida.
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96th Congress COMMITTEE PRINT
2d Session




STATE AND NATIONAL WATER USE
TRENDS TO THE YEAR 2000





A REPORT

PREPARED BY THE

CONGRESSIONAL RESEARCH SERVICE
OF THE

LIBRARY OF CONGRESS
FOR THE

COMMITTEE ON ENVIRONMENT
AND PUBLIC WORKS
U.S. SENATE







MAY 1980



SERIAL NO. 96-12


Printed for the use of the Senate Committee
on Environment and Public Works


U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
63-315 0 WASHINGTON: 1980

















JrnMI*- -ADOLP. VA.. -HAIRMA
IDMUI N. MUSKIS. MAINI ROONTr T. TrASFOR. VT.
MIKE GRAVE.. ALASNA NOWARS N.D S AKES. J.. YOI.
LL8Y.D *MS T. Nen V. OMuCI. N. MUG.
USNYI"N N. lURDIn. N. NA. JON U. AUCHK. ..I
JONCN. .LVE, IOWA ALAN U. SIlMPUON. YU.
NARY HA., cLO. LARY PRUSSLR, *. DNU.
OANIL. PATYICK MOYNINAN. N.Y.
JOHN W. YAGO, JR.. STFF- DUIRENR
ALy IAR MINORITY lTAF DIRECTOR


COMMITTEE ON ENVIRONMENT AND PUBLIC WORKS

JENNINGS RANDOLPH, West Virginia, Ohairman
MIKE GRAVEL, Alaska ROBERT T. STAFFORD, Vermont
LLOYD M. BENTSEN, Texas HOWARD H. BAKER, Ja., Tennessee
QUENTIN N. BURDICK, North Dakota PETE V. DOMENICI, New Mexico
JOHN C. CULVER, Iowa JOHN H. CHAFEE, Rhode Island
GARY HART, Colorado ALAN K. SIMPSON, Wyoming
DANIEL PATRICK MOYNIHAN, New York LARRY PRESSLER, South Dakota
GEORGE J. MITCHELL, Maine
JOHN W. YAGO, Jr., Staff Drector
BAILEY GUARD, Minority Staff Direotor

(II)


'^CUnifewb Ztcfes Ze$nctie
COMMITTEE ON ENVIRONMENT AND PUBLIC WORKS
WASHINGTON D.C. 20510

May 14, 1980


The Honorable Jennings Randolph
U. S. Senate
Washington, D. C. 20510

Dear Jennings:

I have just completed a review of the attached document,
"State and National Water Use Trends to the Year 2000", prepared
by the Congressional Research Service. The document analyzes
and compares water use trends and projections for each of the
fifty states to the year 2000.

I recommend that the Committee publish this document as
a Committee Print. It should be of value to the members of our
Committee and of interest to every member of the Congress.

Sincerely,



Mike Gravel


Attachment


a I



















Congressional Research Service

The Library of Congress


Washington, DC 20540








STATE AND NATIONAL WATER USE TRENDS TO THE YEAR 2000











by
Warren Viessman Jr.
Senior Specialist in Engineering and Public Works
and
Christine DeMoncada
Research Assistant











Senior Specialists Division
Congressional Research Service











April 1980


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CONTENTS


Page
Glossary ----------------------------------------- ---- ix
Conversion table---------------------------------------------- x
I. Summary -----------------------------------------
II. Introduction ----- ------------------------------------
III. State Water Use Projections and Critical Issues----------------- 11
Alabama -------------------------1------------------ 1
Alaska ---------------------------------------------- 19
Arizonas -------------------------------------- 8
Arkansas .-...---------------------------------------------- 86



Florida ---------------------------- --- --------- 55
Georgia -- -------------------------------------------- 59
Hawaii ------------------------------------------- --- 64
Idaho ....-- ------------------------------------------------ 69
Illinois ..-------------------------------------------- 8
Indiana ....------------------------------------------------ 76
Iowa ------------------------------------------------ 81
Kansas ------------------------------------------ 83
Kentucky ------------------------------------------ 89
Louisiana .--------------------------------------------
Maine ....------------------------------ ------------- 99
Maryland --------- ---------------- ------------------- 103
Massachusetts ---------------------------------------------- 107
Michigan --....------------------------------------------ 110
Minnesota .....------------------------------------------------ 114
Mississippi --------------------------------------------- 118
Missouri ---------------------------------------------- 121
Montana -- --------------------------------------------- 124
Nebraska --.....------------------------------------------- 127
Nevada ------------------------------------------------ 130
New Hampshire ---------------------------------------- 132
New Jersey ...---------------------------------------- 135
New Mexico -----.--------------------------------- 140
New York..-------------------------------------------- 146
North Carolina ----------..------------------------------ 150
North Dakota ---------------------- ------------------ 154
Ohio ------------------------- -------------------- 158
Oklahoma --...---------------------------------------- 162
Oregon .------..-------- ------------------------------ 166
Pennsylvania ------..... ----- ---------------------- 170
Rhode Island ------------------------------------ 175
South Carolina---------------- ---------------- 178
South Dakota----.-------------- --------------- -- 181
Tennessee .---------------------------- ---- 184
Texas .-----------------------.------------------ 187
Utah -------------- --------------------------194
Vermont -- ---------------------------------------- 199
Virginia ------------------ --------------------------- 200
Washington --------------- ---------------205
West Virginia ------------- ---------------------207
Wisconsin ------------------- -------- --- 210
Wyoming ---------------------------------------213
(VII)










III. State Water Use Projections and Critical Issues-Continued
District of Columbia- ______ _____ ___ ___
Puerto Rico-------__------_________
Virgin Islands -------------------- ---------
IV. National Water Trends and Problems ---------------------
Introduction ---------------------------
Population as a determining factor in water use----------
National projections to the year 2000-- _---------__-_
Senate Select Committee projections (1961)---
Resources for the Future projections (1971)---------
The National Water Commission projections (1973)-_--
The Water Resources Council's 1975 assessment ------....
Comments on the variations in trends --------__-__
Trends in water use by various sectors .__------
Agriculture --------------------_--_
Steam electric generation .------------ --------.-------
Domestic and commercial uses-----_______---------
Industries ----- --------- __- _
Energy resources development -_--------------------__
Instream flow use----.......--_--------- -______--
Defense ----------------------------------------
Problems and conflicts ---- -------
V. Analysis of Water Use Trends ----------- ---- ----..--_
Introduction
Factors affecting trends-- --- ---____---__-__--- __-_
Reliability of the data base-------------------------
Population -___------- ------_---
Economic conditions-- ----------- ------------
Environmental protection -------_--------- --___ __
Energy resource development ----------------_ _-___--_
Conservation ---------------___ ___ ____ __.--- ___
Interbasin transfers.-------------------------------------
Weather modification -------------------_-- __
Wastewater reuse ----------------- ----____--___
Desalination ------------ -- -
Technologic change --------------------- ----
Assessment of current water use projections ----.--_________-
Mechanisms to shift trends ------__ _---_- ____-____ -


GLOSSARY AND CONVERSION TABLE



1975 base year for the Second National Water Assessment data.

2000 25 year date from the base "1975" year for shich water supply, water use,
and other data are projected.

aquifer- an underground formation that contains sufficient saturated permeable
material to yield significant quantities of water to wells and springs.

bgd billion gallons per day.

consumption portion of water withdrawn for offstream uses and not returned to a
surface or ground water source.

maf million acre-feet

mgd million gallons per day

NWC National Water Commission

region water resources region as designated by the U.S. Water Resources Council,
there are 21 regions-18 in the conterminous United States and oneeach
for Alaska, Hawaii, and the Caribbean.

RFF Resources For The Future Inc.

subregion subdivision of a region; there are 106 subregions used exclusively in
the Second National Water Assessment.

SRF State Regional Future

withdrawal water taken from a surface or ground water source for offstream use.


WRC Water Resources Council




I I-_ ~ ~ __ ~ _~_ I ___ __ _


CONVERSION TABLE FOR WATER-MEASUREMENT TERMS


I SUMMARY


QUANTITY


1 acre-foot


1 million gallons
1 cubic foot


= 325,851 gallons
= 43,560 cubic feet

= 3.07 acre-feet
= 7.48 gallons


FLOW


1 million gallons per day (mgd) = 694.4 gallons per minute
= 1.55 cubic feet per second
= 1,120 acre-feet per year

1 billion gallons per day (bgd) = 1.12 acre-feet per year
1 cubic foot per second = 1.98 acre-feet per day


Water is a critical natural resource and consequently estimates of demands to

be placed upon it in future years are essential to planners and decision makers

at all levels of government. Statements by some experts predicting a not-too-

distant and widespread water crisis support this thesis. Unfortunately, the art

of making comprehensive projections of future water use is primitive and fraught

with hazard.

Forecasts of water use have been made by many agencies and commissions.

Notable examples are studies by the Senate Select Committee on National Water

Resources (1961), Resources For The Future,Inc. (1971), The National Water

Commission (1973) and the United States Water Resources Council (WRC, 1968 and

1978). In general these studies focused on the National or regional scenes.

This analysis, in contrast, was designed to indicate the directions individual

States are assuming will develop regarding the use of their water resources for

the period from 1975 to the year 2000. The principal findings are:

1. There are many inconsistencies in the ways in which data are reported.

The major State and Federal agencies involved in reporting current water use

patterns and in projecting future water use are not always in agreement on

definition of terms, units of measurement or methods of estimating water use.

This makes it difficult, at times, to reconcile State and Federal figures and

to efficiently use the information that is available. This is clearly pointed

out in the analyses on Texas, California and Arkansas, for example. A State-

Federal interagency task force might be an appropriate vehicle for exploring

this issue and recommending some mechanism for standardization. Efforts of the

Office of Water Data Coordination of the U.S. Geological Survey are also direct-

ed toward this objective.













2. Many diverse factors influence water use trends. These include: re-

liability of data, economic conditions, environmental regulations, energy re-

sources development, conservation, weather modification, inter-basin transfers,

wastewater reuse and recycling, saline water conversion and technologic change.

Population -- Prediction of population growth is at best complex. War,

technological developments, new scientific discoveries, government policies and

a whole host of other factors can drastically disrupt population trends. Since

population is an important determining factor in water use, errors in population

projections will be carried over into estimates of water use as well. It is in-

teresting to note, however, that while the projected year 2000 population ranges

from about 130 to 155 percent of the 1970 population, the projected year 2000

water withdrawals range from about zero to 400 percent of recorded 1970 with-

drawals. This disparity can be explained by the fact that the largest withdrawal

uses, irrigation and thermoelectric cooling, have only a limited correlation

with population.

Economic Conditions -- The national economy continues to adjust to escala-

ting energy costs and high levels of inflation. These and other factors suggest

a different scenario than most forecasters painted less than 20 years ago. Evi-

dence now in hand indicates that the combined influence of anticipated demographic,

labor force, productivity and energy changes can be expected to result in future

economic growth rates substantially below average rates experienced in the post-

World War II period. Future water use rates will be influenced by the economic

trends which develop. Uncertainties about the Nation's economy complicate the

forecasting picture.

Environmental Protection -- Social interests in environmental preservation

and enhancement have impacted heavily on water development processes. Old con-


flicts among water users have been sharpened and new conflicts among traditional

water users, conservationists and others have emerged. Environmental regulations

modify the quantities of water used for many purposes. For example, increased re-

circulation of water and land disposal of wastes brought about by environmental

controls tend to result in increased consumptive use of water.

Energy Resource Development -- Water is used to produce energy directly

(hydropower), to process energy-producing resources, and to restore lands despoiled

during mining operations. Water requirements for extraction of coal, oil shale,

uranium, and oil gas are not large, although secondary recovery operations for

oil are heavy water users. Significant quantities of water may be used in coal

slurry pipelines and are needed in the retorting and disposal of spent oil shale.

Conversion of coal to synthetic gas, oil to electric power and electric power gen-

eration all require large quantities of water. While recent estimates of water

requirements for energy resources development are more modest than those of a

few years ago, local problems could still be severe and future water use trends

are certain to be impacted by emerging water uses in this sector.

Conservation -- President Carter's June 6, 1978 water policy message im-

plied that conservation was to be the cornerstone of National Water Policy.

Because of this, future water use trends are certain to be impacted. Neverthe-

less, those making projections might have to reconsider the conservation per-

spective and realize that its theoretical potential for reducing water require-

ments may be less than its actual potential.

Wastewater Reuse -- Wastewater reuse is gaining recognition as an option for

augmenting local water supplies. There are several reasons for this. First, the

Clean Water Act of 1977 requires application of the best available treatment by













July 1, 1984. If pursued, this regulatory goal will result in cleaner waste-

waters, more amenable to additional uses. Second, pressures of population con-

centration, limited availability of water supplies, and political-financial

factors associated with water importation from other regions make use of re-

claimed wastewater more attractive.

Desalination -- Desalination has long been technically feasible but the

economics of conversion from salt to fresh water has limited its practical

application. Even so, there appears to be an increased interest in saline

water use. For example, Chemical and Engineering News (February, 1980) reported

that one optimistic forecast sees a U.S. desalting capacity of about 30 billion

gallons per day by the year 2000. About one third of this capacity would be

derived from the large desalting plant now under construction in Yuma, Arizona.

Stricter water quality regulations could also accelerate the conversion of

highly saline and brackish waters and water requirements for energy resources

development could be partially met through the use of saline waters, appropriately

treated.

3. Trends in water use in several sectors, notably irrigation and power

cooling will strongly influence the need for additional water supplies in the year

2000.

Agriculture -- Water is essential to plant life and is used in large quanti-

ties to produce crops (about 43 percent of fresh water withdrawn in 1975). In

the arid and semi-arid regions of the U.S., irrigation spells the difference

between unproductive wastelands and highly productive food producing units. In

humid areas rainfall is generally sufficient to produce good crops but even

there, supplemental irrigation can prevent crop failures and improve the

quality of the products produced. It is important to note that supplemental

irrigation in the East is on the increase.


Many recent analyses indicate that agricultural water use trends will be

characterized by only moderate increases or in some cases, decreases in the

next 20 years. There are variances from this conclusion, however, and some

States still project sizable expansions of irrigated lands. Nevertheless, it

seems likely that a more environment-oriented society faced with increasing

energy costs will require greater water use efficiencies than in the past and

that this attitude will significantly impact irrigated agriculture. Greater

agricultural output per unit water input is anticipated by most analysts. The

net effect could mitigate against large increases in water use by the agricul-

tural sector.

Steam Electric Generation -- Generation of electricity ranks second only to

agriculture in withdrawals of water. In 1975 it accounted for about 37 percent

of all fresh water withdrawals. In addition about 34 percent of the Nation's

steam electric cooling requirements were met using saline water. As the demand

for cooling water increases and the availability of fresh water resources di-

minishes, the use of coastal land sites with once-through saline water cooling

may become even more attractive.

The primary use of water by steam electric generating stations is for cool-

ing. The quantity of cooling water withdrawn depends upon the type of plant,

its thermal efficiency, the temperature to which the water is heated, and the

type of cooling employed. In its second National Assessment, WRC projected that

by the year 2000 fresh water withdrawals for steam electric generation would de-

crease by 11 percent due to advances in cooling technology. WRC also projected

an increase in consumptive use of 13 percent of fresh water withdrawals for

steam electric generation by the same date. It was believed that the electric

power industry would deviate sharply from its historic practices of using with-




111w~


drawal-intensive, once-through cooling. It was also WRC's finding that the

decrease in fresh water withdrawal requirements would be more than offset by

projected withdrawal increases from saline sources.

A key determinant in water use estimates for steam electric cooling is the

amount of electricity generated. Historically, the annual increase has been

about 7 percent but recent indications are that the future rate of growth will

be much less. The utility industry has recognized this slower growth rate and

is cancelling or delaying construction of new generating plants. Even in the

West, where substantial steam electric power development is planned, slower

growth rates are expected. In addition, there is also evidence that the amount

of water needed for power cooling in a given plant is less than previously esti-

mated. While it appears than water use for power cooling will continue to be

substantial, it will likely be much less than forecasts of only a few years ago

would indicate.

4. A review of the many factors impacting water use trends discloses the

fragile nature of these estimates and the need to accept them in this light.

In general, the older the estimate the more likely it is to be off-target be-

cause of influences unrecognized at the time it was made or due to understate-

ment or overstatement of other conditions.

Of the fifty States, 34 provided projections of water use to the year 2000

or submitted data from which estimates could be made. Twenty-two States projec-

ted or provided data from which estimates could be made of consumptive use to the

year 2000. Conclusions drawn from the analysis of the State water use trends

were the following:

-- high levels of growth anticipated in the early 1960's and early 1970's

are not being realized and this is reflected in the more modest trends


projected by the States and by WRC in its Second National Assessment;

-- increased interest in water conservation coupled with escalating energy

costs has had a minimizing effect on water use in all sectors;

-- environmental regulations, especially those pertaining to thermal dis-

charges, are having a downturning impact on the water-intensive steam

electric sector;

-- irrigation water withdrawals are still increasing but at a rate less than

in the past due to employment of more efficient technologies and a reduced

rate of construction of new Federal facilities; and

-- finally, many of the water-short western States are taking a more realis-

tic attitude toward growth in water use and are intensively exploring

avenues for minimizing new water requirements.

5. Water use patterns may be modified by governments and other entities if

it is considered desirable to do so. Mechanisms which could be employed to ac-

complish this include: conservation programs; regulation of fuel and energy costs;

restrictions on grant and loan programs; environmental regulations: educational

programs; reuse and recycling of water; limiting funding for construction of new

water resources development facilities; development of more efficient devices for

using water in homes and industries; and pricing policies, taxes ad incentives

Finally, it seems appropriate to comment on the projections made by WRC in

its Second National Assessment. WRC's analysis of the current situation appears

well founded relative to its notion of a slower rate of growth in' water use in

coming years. Projections made by other prestigious organizations and the re-

cent analyses by many of the States as reported herein suggest, however,

that WRC's estimates may be over-conservative. It would appear that they might

serve more realistically as lower limits of growth than as "likely" estimates.












This conclusion appears to be particularly appropriate to WRC's estimated

trend for total water withdrawals.

No one can foresee the future with clarity but the evidence evaluated in

this report suggests that a smaller range in forecasts of water use for future

years is likely and that more moderate rates of increase in water use will pre-

vail.


II INTRODUCTION


Concerns about national and world food production and energy resource de-

velopment, especially in the Western United States, have coupled with tradition-

al water problems to sharpen the focus on the availability, requirements for,

and need to more carefully manage the Nation's water resources.

From 1955 to 1975, fresh water use in the United States increased about

160 percent. Forecasts for the period 1975 to 2000 range from a high of about

a four-fold increase to a low of a slight decline from the 1975 figure. While

no one can say for sure what the future will bring, it seems likely that more

moderate trends than many of those projected in the past will prevail. Increa-

sed emphasis on conservation is one signal.

During 1975, the Nation's water withdrawals (fresh and saline) for all pur-

poses averaged 420 billion gallons per day (bgd). This included a substantial

reuse of flows. Of the total amount used, approximately 96 bgd were consumed

through evaporation or incorporation into products. It is the latter figure that

is really most important since water consumed is unavailable'for further use in

the locality of withdrawal.

From a nationwide perspective, there is sufficient water to meet projected

needs well beyond 1985 (average annual stream flow of the conterminous U.S. is

about 1,200 bgd alone). This optimism should be tempered, however, by a reali-

zation that national totals do not reflect geographic or temporal variations,

and severe local, state and regional problems can be expected. For the eastern

third of the Nation, the water supply outlook generally is good to the year 2000.

Exceptions are the Miami-Ft. Lauderdale and Chicago areas. In the West, the pic-

ture is dimmer. Significant water supply problems exist or are anticipated in

Southern California, the Great Basin, the Lower Colorado, the Rio Grande, the

High Plains of Texas and the south-central portion of the Missouri River Basin.


(9)




Huh-


Many of these areas are large consumers of water for irrigated agricultural pro-

duction. Expected water use for development and processing of coal and oil shale

deposits in a few of these areas will add to the difficulties. Unless there is a

shifting of water allocations, water may already be limiting growth in some of

the more critical areas.

This study was designed to indicate the directions the States assume will

develop regarding the use of their water resources during the next 20 years.

Comparisons of State projections with national trends are given along with an

assessment of critical water problems and factors likely to influence and/or

modify present forecasts.

The historic data used in this report were obtained mostly from a series of

United States Geological Survey Circulars entitled Estimated Use of Water in the

United States 1950, 1955, 1960, 1965, 1970, and 1975. The Circular numbers are

115, 398, 456, 556, 676, and 765.


III STATE WATER USE PROJECTIONS AND CRITICAL ISSUES


Introduction

Projected water use trends and problems for the 50 States, the District

of Columbia, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are discussed and analyzed in

this section. Water planning agencies and other organizations were contacted

in each State and asked to provide current data. Where no State projections

were available, water use trends from 1975 to the year 2000 were made based on:

(1) the National fresh water trend projected by the Water Resources Council (WRC)

in its 1975 Assessment (year 2000 value equals 103 percent of the year 1970 val-

ue); (2) a middle level national growth trend for all water use based on the

average of the National Water Commission's (NWC) projected high and low trends

(the year 2000 withdrawal equals 314 percent of year 1970 withdrawal). Histor-

ic fresh water and saline water uses are given where appropriate. Historic

trends in irrigation water use and thermoelectric use (the two largest water

using sectors) are also given where applicable. Projected uses by munici-

pal, industrial and other sectors are presented where such data were available.

Consumptive use (water evaporated, transpired or otherwise unavailable for

further reuse) is also shown historically and projected to the year 2000.

Where State projections of consumptive use were not available, the National

trend estimated by WRC is displayed (year 2000 value equals 155 percent of the

year 1970 value). Regardless of whether or not State projections were made,

each Figure illustrating State water use trends shows the year 2000 projected

values based on the WRC and NWC national trends described above. Where State

data were not available, these high and low estimates appear to bracket most













conditions likely to be encountered. Where State data were available, the

WRC and NWC values provide a frame of reference. For example, Figure 1

shows that the year 2000 mid-projection for Alabama, based on NWC's projected

national trend, would be 21.3 bgd. Finally there are some cases in which

States made no projections but supplied data from which projections could be

made. In these instances (see Figure 33, for example) a notation was made

indicating that trends were estimated from available data. Data interpreta-

tions are the result of CRS analysis, however, and they may not be coincident

with projections a State might make at some future time.

Rather than list the references used in the analysis of the State water

use trends at the end of this chapter, they are presented immediately following

the discussion for each State. This format should make using the report easier,

especially for those interested in only one State or a specific region. Several

references have been used extensively. To shorten the reference form, the des-

ignation shown after each of the full references listed below was substituted

in the State reference lists.


1. U.S. Department of Commerce. Bureau of the Census. Illustrative

Projections of State Populations by Age, Race, and Sex: 1975 to

2000. Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 796. U.S. Gov't.

Printing Off., Washington, D.C. March 1979.

This report will be referred to as USDC, 1979.


2. U.S. Dept. of the Interior. Bureau of Land Management. Public Land

Statistics 1976. U.S. Gov't. Print. Off., Washington, D.C. 1976.

This report will be referred to as BLM, 1976.


3. U.S. Water Resources Council. The Nation's Water Resources. The

Second National Assessment. Regional Analyses (Preliminary Volumes

1 to 21). Washington, D.C. 1978.

These reports will be referred to as SRF-Volume No.-1978. For example,

the report on Hawaii (see Figure 51 for regional numbers, Hawaii is

region 20) would be designated as SRF-20-1978.


The Bureau of the Census population Series II-B was used frequently in this

study. It will be referred to hereafter as Series II-B. Its underlying assump-

tion is: continuation from 1975 through 2000 of the civilian, non-college inter-

state migration patterns by age, race and sex observed for the 1970-75 period.




Alabama


Introduction


Having a total land area of 51,609 square miles,1/ Alabama lies within the

Atlantic Gulf and Tennessee Regions. The State enjoys an abundant supply

of surface and ground waters. In 1970, the State had a population of 3,444,000

and it is projected that this figure will be 3,714,000 in the year 1980 and

4,148,000 in 2000.2/ During 1970, Alabama withdrew a total of 6,700 mgd and

consumed about 660 mgd of water (Tables III-1 and 2 and Figure 1). Surface

water accounted for 96 percent of total withdrawals. As Table III-1 indi-

cates, thermoelectric power was by far the largest water user, accounting

for about 75 percent of all water withdrawn.













Table III-1

Present and Projected Withdrawal Use of Water in Alabama
(million gallons per day)*


Used
Type of use 1970 1980 2000 2020



Public water systems
Residential use 206 244 400 /00
Industrial-Commercial use 260 366 800 1,500
Subtotal 466 610 1,200 2,200

Rural use
Domestic 63 76 104 108
Livestock 27 33 45 58
Irrigation 18 27 54 90
Fish-growing 12 46 86 115
Subtotal 120 182 289 371

Self-supplied industry 1,087 1,500 3,000 6,000

thermoelectric power 5,024 10,000 20,000 25,000
Total (rounded) 6,700 12,300 24,500 33,600


Percent of 1970 value 100 184 366 502

*Source Water Resources Planning, Alabama Development Office (1973, p.70).


EI
*I 1.0

a




1950


f

8

r
b
I


Historic Data (USGS)




I l l I


Alabama Development
Office Projection
Excludes Reservoir
Evaporation


1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year


0.85 bgd

WRC (1975)
year 2000 = 155% of
S i l year 1970 (0.38 bgd)


35
Alabama Development
Office Projection
30 (Freshwater)
(1973)

25 Historic Data (USGS) 24.5 bgd


20 _- NWC (mid-projection
year 2000= 314% of
r --_-_-_-_--_ year 1970 (21.3 bgd)
16 -- -- -- (All water)
Includes about 2% saline water

10

S- -- St er WRC (1975) year
------ ------------------ ......- 00 0%o
-_- -- 2000 =103% of
S- -------- -- -year 1970 (7.5 bgd)
S- - - - (Freshwater)
L- ---\ ----- --. -- ---- -T-- ---"---- T:-"--- o-
6I I 1- 1 17 1 other
1- I, 1- I A' I 5 ', ,', I 5 I|l0 19Y 200
Year


Figure 1. Alabama Water Withdrawals and Consumptive Use
(Actual 1950 1975, Projected 1975 2000)


)












-2

Present and Projected Consumptive Use of Water in Alabama
(million gallons per day)*


Used
Type of use 1970 '1980 2000 2020


Public water systems
Rural use 36 46 88 160
Self-supplied industry 108 136 203 256
Thermoelectric power (cooling) 65 90 240 600
0 40 300 1600
Reservoir evaporation 450 500 600 700

Total (rounded) 660 810 1,430 3,320

Percent of 1970 value 100 123 217 503


*Source Water Resources Planning, Alabama Development Office (1973, p. 70).



Projected Trends


By the year 2000, projected water withdrawals are expected to reach 24,500

mgd and consumptive use 1,430 mgd (see Tables III- 1 and 2). Thermoelectric

power will still lead as the State's largest withdrawal user at 20,000 mgd or

nearly 82 percent of total water withdrawals. This represents a 389 percent

jump in that industry's utilization of water since 1970. Power cooling consumed

no water in 1970 but it is forecast to consume 300 mgd in 2000, representing

about 21 percent of the consumptive use at that time. Self-supplied industry

accounts for a near three-fold rise of 3,000 mgd in 2000 from its 1970 withdrawal

figure of 1,087 mgd (Table III-1). Agriculture is not a major user of water

(although catfish farming is gaining importance).


From 1955 to 1970 the population increased only 13 percent while water with-

drawals skyrocketed, comparatively speaking, by 122 percent. As stated in Water

Resources Planning in Alabama: 3/

...Most of the increase in water withdrawals has resulted from
a more intensive use of surface water by industry and thermo-
electric power plants. Average per capital daily use...increased
from 987 gallons per person in 1955 to 1,944 gallons per person
in 1970, almost doubling the 1955 figure.


Water Problems


Alabama's estimated 50,000-60,000 mgd of potential dependable water supply

appears generally adequate to meet projected water demands to the year 2000.3/

By 2020, however, the Alabama Development Office indicates that an increase

of 7,000 mgd in the dependable supply will be needed.

Alabama has cataloged its water problems. One of those is low dissolved

oxygen concentrations of some streams caused by the discharge of oxygen-demand-

ing wastes. This seems to be a localized problem but it occurs in several areas.

In the southeastern region, limestone seepage from southwest Georgia could

threaten the quality of the State's ground water resources. Drilling for oil

and gas and deep-well injection of liquid wastes are also potential sources

of contamination of aquifers. Along the lower Mobile-Tombigbee Rivers,the high

content of mineral and other elements is expected to escalate costs of water

treatment.

On the quantity side, population increases and interbasin transfers have

prompted the Water Resources Council to report that "...All available developed

flows in the Chattahoochee River will be allocated by the year 2000."4/ The Black

Warrior-Cahaba area is presently experiencing low flow problems on occasion. In

the future, the large urban, industrialized populations of Mobile and Birmingham


1111~-













could pose significant difficulties in meeting water demands. The Cahaba River

near Birmingham already presents some water supply problems during periods of

low flow. The WRC states that "...There is also an area of little or no potable

water in a northwest trending belt from west central Alabama extending into

Mississippi." 4/

Analysis



Alabama is a water-rich State and, as such, it does not appear that any

major problems of water supply will confront it between now and the year 2000.

Figure 1 shows that projected increases in water use are modest in all sectors

except steam electric cooling. In the year 2000, Alabama's projections indicate

that this sector will constitute about 80 percent of all withdrawal uses. Steam

electric requirements for water are based on an estimated doubling of electric

generating capacity between 1970 and 1980 and doubling again in consecutive

periods of 15, 17 and 20 years. This expectation was based on estimated future

power requirements (after 1980) for Appalachia prepared by the former Federal

Power Commission (now the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission) for the Corps

of Engineers, Office of Appalachian studies. Alabama assumes that until 2000,

both coal and nuclear-fired steam plants will be constructed and that they will

be about equally divided between once-through cooling and recirculating cooling.

It is on this premise that the large increase in steam electric withdrawals is

forecast. After 2000 it is believed that all additional cooling will be of

the evaporative type. The thermoelectric withdrawals could be altered, however,

if older coal-fired plants are phased out and replaced by new facilities using

evaporative cooling systems. Also, technologic changes or stricter environmental


controls could lead to reduced water use in this sector. Projected in-

creases in consumptive use to 2000 are about 1.7 times the 1975 level but the

total consumptive use of 0.85 bgd projected for 2000 is only a small fraction

of Alabama's water supply. Figure 1 shows that Alabama's year 2000 projection

is close to the NWC trend value but much greater than WRC's trend. The variance

with WRC is explained by WRC'S assumption that once through cooling will not be

be used in new plants. On the other hand, NWC's projection is founded on

assumptions for steam electric cooling which are relatively consistent with

those made by Alabama.


References


1. Alabama Development Office. Use of Water in Alabama, 1970 with Projections
to 2020. Montgomery, Alabama. 1972.

2. USDC, 1979.

3. Alabama Development Office. Water Resources Planning in Alabama. Montgomery,
Alabama. 1973.

4. SRF-3-1978.


Alaska


Introduction


With a land mass one-sixth that of the continental United States, or

586,000 square miles, Alaska was estimated to be the home of some 409,600

people in 1979. 1/ The State is comprised of four regions: the Arctic, con-

tinental, transitional and maritime. Alaska's coastline measures 46,300

miles and of this amount 33,000 miles are ocean shoreline. The annual

fresh water discharge is about 905 bgd which is approximately 75 percent of

the total runoff of the conterminous U.S. (Table IV-1). Alaska's largest river,













the Yukon, drains 40 percent of the State, discharging about 140 bgd. 2/


Projected Trends


In 1975, total fresh water withdrawals were estimated to be 345 mgd based

on State-Regional Futures projections (the USGS figure is considerably less than

this, Figure 2). According to WRC the sectoral distribution was: manufacturing

25.9 percent; fish hatcheries 25.0 percent; domestic, commercial and industrial

19.7 percent; minerals 17.9 percent; steam electric 10.0 percent; and irrigation

1.5 percent (Figure 2). 3/ By the year 2000 these withdrawals are projected to

reach about 1.3 bgd.

Water consumption was 58 mgd in 1975 (Figure 2). Based on WRC findings

this was allocated as follows: manufacturing 25 percent; domestic use 10 percent;

mining 21 percent; irrigation 5 percent; and public lands, etc. the remaining 4

percent. In the year 2000 the consumptive use figures are estimated to reach

456 mgd, apportioned in the following manner: mining (including fuels) 89 per-

cent; public lands 4 percent, agriculture and commerce 1 percent; and domestic

uses 2 percent. 3/

As one can derive from Figure 2, significant increases in withdrawals and

consumptive uses for manufacturing and mining are anticipated. Water is needed

in large quantities for the production of coal. Refineries, seafood processing

industries, petrochemical plants and canneries are also expected to use sizeable

amounts of water. Offshore oil development could also impact greatly on the

water supply of the Kodiak Shelikof area.

Hydroelectric development in Alaska is not extensive but a 1969 analysis

by the Federal Power Commission found that there was a 17,212,000 kilowatt (kW)


1.0 r


Consumptive Use
Historic Less Than
10mgd


1950 1955 1960 1965 1970


WRC Alaska Region (19)
State Regional Future





Other



^?IS IM'r~f*""n^8"t"l^'::


0.46 bd


1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year


Figure 2. Alaska Water Withdrawals and Consumptive Use
(Actual 1950 1975, Projected 1975 2000)


El'.













potential at 76 sites. 4/ In fact, Alaska holds about 34 percent of the

undeveloped hydroelectric potential of the United States. 4/

Seafood processing is important in the Gulf of Alaska, claiming 79 percent

of the water used there. 5/ In fact, in the Kodiak-Shelikof subregion, sea-

food processing accounts for 52 to 77 percent of all the water used. 5/

Agricultural use of water is currently insignificant, but it has been es-

timated that the 1.06 million acres in southcentral Alaska which now use approx-

imately 1 mgd might demand as much as 300 mgd of water by the year 2000. 5/


Water Problems


Water supplies appear to be more than sufficient to meet the future needs

of the State but there are some water problems. The most acute problem is the

decrease in availability of water due to low temperatures and the long duration

of cold periods which results in glaciation and permafrost. Permafrost inhibits

recharging, movement, storage and discharge of ground water and spurs the winter

habit of continuous use of water to prevent freeze-up of water pipes. This

practice can result in the annual loss of thousands of gallons of water.

In the State's cold Artic region, precipitation is minimal and as a result,

recharge of aquifers is slow. In other areas, population increases are signaling

greater water demands but no severe problems are yet forecast. Urban and indus-

trial stresses do suggest, however, the need for updated data on instream flow

requirements and a more effective administration of instream reserves.

Although water quality is generally high, untreated sewage is a nuisance

in some Alaskan villages. The WRC reports that "....Seventy percent of Alaska's

natives live in small, remote villages where water is seldom obtainable and ade-

quate waste disposal is often impossible. 3/ Water quality problems are also


emerging due to increased water withdrawals in highly populated areas (Anchorage

and the Kenai Penninsula); oil, timber and outer continental shelf development;

and tourism.

WRC reports that "The relative unavailability of water for large parts of

the State may impose limits on, and in some cases determine, the types of energy

development that may occur. Coal mines, refineries, and petrochemical plants

involve significant water requirements."3/ Although water supply does not

seem to be a significant problem at present, it is worth noting that only an

infinitesimal amount of the State's water is used because of low precipitation,

frozen ground, low water retention and limited development. In the future,

however, water seems destined to play a more dominant role in the development

of the State.


Analysis


The level of water withdrawals projected for Alaska in the year 2000 is a

small fraction of the estimated average annual fresh water runoff. Consequen-

tly, it does not appear that any general water shortages will occur. The fact

that the State-Regional Futures analysis indicates water use levels in 2000

well beyond the national trend values of WRC and NWC is not surprising since

these average trends relate principally to expected growth in the already

highly developed contiguous United States. Alaska is young and its rate of

growth in resource use will certainly exceed that of most other States, at

least for the next twenty years. Those sectors expected to grow in water use

most rapidly are agriculture, manufacturing and mining. This fits Alaska's

potential quite well and the projected trends seem reasonable at this time.












Trends


References


1. Alaska Department of Commerce and Economic Development. Quarterly Report.
April 1979.

2. Telephone Interview with Ms. Margaret Hackett, Coordinator. Office of the
Governor of Alaska. August 31, 1979.

3. SRF-19-1978.

4. Herfindahl, Henry. Water Power in Alaska. A Bibliography. U.S. Department
of Interior. Alaska Power Administration. Federal Power Commission. 1969.
Alaska Power Survey. Juneau, Alaska. 1969.

5. Phase I Technical Memorandum. Water Supply Needs Assessment Draft.
Water Supply Work Plan Committee. Anchorage, Alaska. June 1979.



Arizona


Introduction


Arizona is characterized by a substantial but highly overdrawn ground

water resource from which about 60 percent of the State's annual withdrawals

are made.l/ Currently, ground water reserves are being depleted about 1.7

times faster than they can be replenished. Supplementing ground water is a

finite surface water supply gathered mainly through precipitation.

Forty-one percent of the water consumed in 1970 was overdraft (2 bgd

that year). 2/ Such withdrawals have resulted in large basin water level de-

clines (about 460 feet in 49 years). Approximately 32,600 bg were pumped from

alluvial deposits between 1915 and 1975. 2/

The most heavily populated subregion in Arizona is the Basin and Range

Groundwater Province accommodating nearly 80 percent of the State's 2,489,000

inhabitants. 3/ This Province constitutes 45 percent of Arizona's land mass and

retains approximately 1.4 billion acre-feet of water in storage. 2/


By the year 2000, Arizona's population is expected to be about 3,452,000.3/

Water withdrawals are projected to lie somewhere between 7 bgd and 10.3 bgd while

consumptive use is forecast to decrease from its 1975 level of about 6 bgd to

between 3.7 bgd and 5.5 bgd (Figure 3).

Agriculture is, and is expected to continue to be, the State's major water

depletor. In 1975, the USGS reported that about 76 percent of all water withdrawn

was consumed by irrigators, and irrigated agriculture accounted for 89 percent of

all consumptive uses. The municipal and industrial water use sectors consumed

most of the remainder (about 7 percent).

In 1977, the State of Arizona completed a study of alternative futures.2/

Estimates were made of water use for five water using functions: irrigated agri-

culture, urban use, steam electric power generation, mineral production and fish

and wildlife. With the exception of fish and wildlife, for which a single

future was forecast, three projections for the 50-year period, 1970-2020, were

made for each function. These were believed to represent a high, low and inter-

mediate level of use. The high and low alternatives, I and III, are shown on

Figure 3.

The nonagricultural projections were based on estimates of future condi-

tions which might occur as a result of forces unconstrained by State action.

The agricultural futures were designed, at one extreme, to reflect possible

efforts to achieve a balance in the State's water supply and use without aug-

mentation and, at the other extreme, to project conditions where Arizona would

share fully in meeting the Nation's food and fiber demands. It was noted

that the passage of time and changing circumstances could alter the situation

sufficiently to avoid the several futures projections and that periodic re-


El"












Arizona Water


Historic Data (USGS)


WRC (1975)
year 2000 = 155% of
year 1970 (7.2 bgd)


assessments would be needed.

Consumptive use is projected to decline under all alternatives while total

water withdrawals are forecast to increase under Alternative I and decrease

under Alternative III.


Water Problems


20 r


Historic Data (USGS)
(Freshwater)
15


Estimated From
Arizona Water Commission
Depletion Projections For High
& Low Alternative Futures
(breakdown into sectors is
for Alternative I)
(Freshwater)
(1977)




AIternative I


NWC (mid-projection)
year 2000 = 314% of
year 1970 (21.3 bgd)
(All water)










10.3 bgd


S" iWRC (1975) year
2000= 103% of
o:h,"h year 1970 (7.0 bgd)
5
5 (Freshwater)

S rriation .


urtb.n '/ ~Urban Use
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year


Arizona's water supply comes from the Colorado River, from ground water

reserves and other surface water sources. The most significant factor sup-

porting recent economic growth in the southern part of the State is ground

water. The State's ground water reserves were built up over thousands of years

but according to the Arizona Water Commission, they were being depleted at the

rate of about 2,200,000 acre-feet per year at the 1970 level of development

whereas the natural rate of replenishment was only 300,000 acre-feet per year.4/

Ground water overdraft is thus one of the State' most pressing water problems.

The quality of ground water is another problem. Large areas of the State have

ground water supplies with total dissolved solids exceeding 1,000 milligrams per

liter which exceeds the level considered fit for human consumption by EPA.

Other water problems facing Arizona are: inadequate surface water supply;

water pollution from point and non-point sources, eutrophication, periodic

flooding, and erosion.


Analysis


The population of Arizona is expected to increase at a rate exceeding the

national average. The Arizona Water Commission (AWC) notes that the 2020 pop-

ulation is forecast to be between 3.7 and 7.7 million, a significant jump over


Figure 3. Arizona Water Withdrawals and Consumptive Use
(Actual 1950 1975, Projected 1975 2000)












the 1975 level of 2.4 million. Domestic, residential, commercial, industrial

and recreational water uses are all projected to increase as a result of popu-

lation pressures but these increases are expected to be slightly offset by re-

duced per capital water use rates. The reductions will likely stem from the

impacts of conservation programs and increased reuse of wastewater. Water use

for steam electric generation and for mineral production is projected to in-

crease significantly to the year 2020. For example, AWC projects a maximum

39 percent increase in water depletions for steam electric cooling between 1970

and 2020. In the minerals industry, even the lowest projection shows a doubling

of consumptive use between 1970 and 2020. Withdrawals in these sectors will

also increase but a look at Figure 3 shows that the lion's share of the water

will still be going to agriculture.

AWC reports that to the year 2020, agriculture will use more water than all

other uses combined. This is projected even for the low growth Alternative

11.4/

.....The acreage of harvested crops will increase from the 1970 level
of 1,225,000 acres to a 2020 level of 1,426,000 acres if the highest
projected level of agricultural development is realized. However, if
agriculture is reduced to achieve zero overdraft there will only be
about 727,000 acres harvested in 2020. Water use will change almost
proportionately to the harvested acreage......

It is interesting to note that the WRC national trend follows Alternative

III quite closely while the NWC trend is about double the Arizona high projec-

tion. WRC's conservative outlook on irrigation growth parallels the reality of

Arizona while the NWC national trend is more comparable to States with large in-

dustrial growth and heavy requirements for power cooling, especially on a once-

through basis.

Dependable water supplies are expected to increase until about 1987 when

the Central Arizona Project is scheduled for completion and full operation.


After that they are expected to slowly decline as Upper Colorado River Basin

demands are satisfied, thereby reducing the water available to Arizona. AWC's

comparison of total projected water depletions and water supplies shows that

large overdrafts of ground water will continue unless uses are substantially

reduced or imported waters are made available to the State. AWC has concluded

that barring new agricultural development, except on Indian lands, and with

medium level growth in other sectors, an average annual overdraft of about

885,000 acre-feet will exist in 1990 and this will increase to 1,575,000 acre-

feet in 2020. Even approaching Alternative III, which is designed to uniformly

reduce agricultural uses between 1980 and 2000, a complete balance of supply

and demand is not achieved. Nevertheless, under Alternative III, the accumulated

overdraft during the period 1990 to 2020 would be only 4 million acre-feet (maf)

in contrast with an overdraft of 109 maf during the same period under Alterna-

tive I. The insights gained by AWC's alternative futures analysis should be

of great value in planning future water management strategies in Arizona.




References



1. Arizona Water Commission. Phase I-Arizona State Water Plan. Summary:Inventory
of Resources and Uses. Phoenix, Arizona. July 1975.

2. Arizona Water Commission. 20th Annual Arizona Watershed Symposium. Proceedings.
Report No. 8. Phoenix, Arizona. September 15, 1976.

3. USDC, 1979.

4. Arizona Water Commission. Phase II. Arizona State Water Plan Alternative
Futures. Phoenix, Arizona. February 1977.













Arkansas


Introduction


Arkansas has a population of 2,193,000 people (1980 estimate) and a land

mass which encompasses some 236,795 square miles. 1,2/ Though there is consid-

erable variability in streamflow, the water quality is high and supply exceeds

demands. The average surface water discharge is about 79 bgd. 3/ The average

annual rainfall is 48.52. 3/


Historic Data (USGS)










I I I I


50 1955 1960 1965 1970


Arkansas Soil and
Water Conservation
Commission Projections











I I I


1975 1980 1985
Year


1990 1995


2.9 bgd



)--WRC (1975)
year 2000 = 155% of
year 1970 (1.8 hgd)


2000


Projected Trends


Agriculture is the primary industry in the Arkansas River Basin with rice

being the main crop (931,000 acres irrigated) and beans and cotton consuming

the rest of agriculture's water allotment. 4/ During 1975, irrigated agricul-

ture consumed 1,803 mgd of water and it is estimated that this figure could

rise to 2,297 mgd by the year 2020. 4/ The Arkansas Water Resources Research

Center indicates, however, that a possible shift to center-pivot irrigation

could reduce irrigation water use for rice by as much as 50 to 60 percent.

Table III-3 and Figure 4 summarize Arkansas projections of irrigation and

other water uses to the year 2020. 4/


Table 111-3
Projections of Water Consumed and Withdrawn by Irrigated
Agriculture, 1975 2020


Arkansas Soil and
Water Conservation


NWC (mid-projection)
year 2000 = 314% of
year 1970 (9.5 bgd)
(All water)


Iner '4.7 bgd
4 --
S..... )- WRC (1975) year
S. .'* 2000 = 103% of
2 ::. .. irr. ion ..: year 1970 (3.2 bgd)
:: irri on .: .: :::- .. ': ..'.:.: '...: :: ::: .: (Freshwater)
oommstic
o urnMa ufacturing
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year


Withdrawals (mgd)

2,403
2,763
3,069
3,099


Consumption (mgd)

1,803
2,049
2,276
2,296


Figure 4. Arkansas Water Withdrawals and Consumptive Use
(Actual 1950 1975, Projected 1975 2000)


Year

1975
1985
2000
2020




Mlii ~


The Arkansas State Water Plan (1978) reported that 85 percent of the total

1975 industrial water withdrawals were made by the Lower Arkansas and Ouachita

regions, particularly by their chemical and paper industries. By 2020 this 85

percent is projected to climb to 88 percent. A summary of projected water with-

drawals and consumptive use by manufacturing is given in Table 111-4. 3/


Table III-6
Projected Water Withdrawals And Consumptive Uses For Power
Generation, 1975 2020


Withdrawals (mgd)


Consumption (mgd)

9
45
55
98


Table I11-4
Projected Water Withdrawals and Consumptive Use
For Manufacturing, 1975 2020


Withdrawals (mgd)

287
325
329
563


Consumption (mgd)

40
119
254
435


Projected withdrawals and consumptive use for domestic purposes and for

power generation are shown in Tables III-5 and 111-6. 3/



Table III-5
Projected Water Withdrawals And Consumptive Uses For Domestic
Purposes, 1975 2020


Withdrawals (mgd)


Consumption (mgd)

44
48
52
55


Water use for livestock and for commercial fish farms, fish hatcheries and

wildlife impoundments is important in Arkansas. Projected withdrawals in this

category range from about 459 mgd in 1975 to about 639 mgd in 2020. Consumptive

use figures range from about 253 mgd in 1975 to about 285 mgd in 2020. Of the

41,000 acres of surface water dedicated to fish farming, about 21,200 acres are

used in raising goldfish. 3/



Water Problems


Arkansas experiences a number of water problems. These include: ground

water overdraft; eutrophication; drinking water quality; flooding; erosion

and sedimentation; and wet soils and wetland drainage problems.

According to a study by the Arkansas Water Resources Research Center,

Arkansas has an average discharge of about 79 bgd. This amount could be reduced

to about 65 bgd, however, if Oklahoma exercised its full right to Arkansas River

Basin water as provided for by the Arkansas River Basin Compact of 1970. Further

reductions to meet obligations to all bordering states gives a firm discharge of

about 29 bgd, still far greater than the projected year 2000 total withdrawals

shown on Figure 4.


Year

1975
1985
2000
2020








34



Analysis


Figure 4 shows that Arkansas's water use projections to the year 2000 are

characterized by rather modest increases in all sectors. The withdrawal trends

are not too different from the WRC national average but are substantially less

than NWC's projected rate of growth. The latter difference is largely explained

by the variance in growth forecast for steam electric cooling by the State and

by NWC's mid-projection trend.

The USGS estimates of quantities of water withdrawn in 1975 are sig-

nificantly greater than those made by the State of Arkansas. The reason

for this is the difference in assumptions about power cooling, another example

of the importance of a consistent data base. Arkansas's water requirements

for power generation were developed directly from information provided by the

former Federal Power Commission (FPC). The FPC water withdrawal estimates

differ markedly from the USGS estimates. For example, FPC estimated total

withdrawals of 427 mgd for the State in 1975 while the USGS estimated 1,717

mgd. The principal reason for this variance is the way these agencies defined

"withdrawal". The USGS considered withdrawals to be all water used to cool a

condenser regardless of the type of cooling system used. Wet towers and cooling

ponds recirculate water, and to count the entire condenser flow as a withdrawal

is actually an overstatement of the amount of water used. On the other hand,

the FPC defined withdrawals for wet towers and cooling pond plants as the sum

of consumptive (evaporation) and water quality (blowdown) uses. Both agencies

were in agreement on once-through cooling. For wet towers and cooling pond

plants, the flow of a river will be only temporarily decreased as the cooling

device is filled. Once this filling process is complete, only evaporation


35



losses and blowdown losses will be incurred on a continuing basis.

Arkansas's power cooling estimates for 1985 were based on OBERS Series E

projections of population and economic activity, along with the anticipated

effects of energy conservation, oil and gas shortages, higher electricity rates,

and pollution abatement requirements.

Projections for the years 2000 and 2020 were based on OBERS population and

economic projections and forecasts of increased use of electricity and declining

uses of natural gas and oil. The estimates also reflected increased recircula-

tion of water in steam electric plants due to anticipated stricter standards on

thermal discharges.

The State of Arkansas projects that it will eventually use up to 73 percent

of its surface water flows but all regions of the State are expected to have

water surpluses in 2020. The Mississippi-St. Francis and Crittenden region is

the most likely candidate for a water shortage but the prospects of this may be

decreased through effective water management and a shift from flood irrigation

to center-pivot irrigation. 3/

Each of Arkansas's water planning regions is relatively large and, conse-

quently, parts of these may face water supply problems even though the regions

as a whole may appear to be water rich.



References



1. USDC, 1979.

2. BLM, 1976.

3. Shulstad, Robert N., Ziegler, Joseph A. and Cross, Eddie D. Projected
Water Requirements and Surface Water Availability for Arkansas. Arkansas
Water Resources Research Center. Fayetteville, Arkansas. July 1977.


Eli, r-








36



4. Arkansas Soil and Water Conservation Commission. Arkansas State Water
Plan: Water and Related Land Resources. Appendix "B". Special Report
No. 1. Fayetteville, Arkansas. April 1978.




California


Introduction


37



use policies, and the impact of environmental enhancement and preservation

pressures. Various alternative developmental trends for population, agriculture

and energy were designed. Out of this mix, four Alternative Futures emerged.

These are summarized in Table III-7 and Figure 5. 3/ It was noted that while

none of the futures designed was intended to represent a most probable future,

such a future would likely be spanned by Futures II and III.


Home of the Mojave and Colorado Death Valley deserts and some 22,538,000

(1980 estimate) people, California ranks first in population of the Nation.1/

Water supply for the region appears generally favorable but this depends some-

what on completion of the Auburn, Melones and Warm Spring Dams and construction

of the Peripheral Canal. Increased demands by irrigated agriculture could, how-

ever, alter this conclusion. Aside from isolated water problems and those asso-

ciated with the Colorado River, California enjoys a healthy water quality and it

appears that the Colorado River will continue to be southern California's princi-

pal water supplier.

California is a world leader in the production of boron minerals, dictomite,

gypsum, iodine, sodium compounds and sulfur. 2/ In addition, the State is a

national forerunner in fruit and vegetable production.

In estimating water requirements for the future, California used an al-

ternative futures approach. It was noted that the uncertainty of projections

of the location, size and timing of future water demands made this approach pre-

ferable to the simple extension of past trends. Factors contributing to this

decision included: the downward trend in birth rates, opening of the Chinese

and Russian agricultural markets, new environmental regulations, future land


Table III-7
1972 and Projected Applied Fresh Water Demands by
Alternative Futures For The State Of California
(1,000 acre-feet)


Urban


Agricultural


I II III IV I II III IV

Total State
1972---------- 5,040 5,040 5,040 5,040 31,700 31,700 31,700 31,700
1990-------- 7,100 6,930 6,770 6,160 37,900 36,400 34,600 34,000
2020-------- 11,400 10,400 9,730 7,170 41,900 39,000 36,100 34,600



Power Plant Cooling ** Fish, Wildlife,Recreation

I II III IV

Total State
1972-------- 38 38 38 38 655
1990-------- 390 220 150 130 806
2020-------- 1,100 580 350 210 846

** Consumptive use only


Totals (All Sectors)


Total State

1972------------------
1990------------------
2020------------------


I II


37,400
46,200
55,300


37,400
44,400
50,800


III


37,400 37,400
42,400 41,100
47,000 42,900














Historic Data (USGS)

30 r--O 0 0


20 -


10 -


1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 20
Year


00


S. ////// griculture///////////
.. . ... / / //// //// / / //// ////



------ LL-
.... ....... 6........ 1 // /////// //// ////// / // / /



1950 1955 5 60 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year


Figure 5. California Water Withdrawals and Consumptive Use
(Actual 1950 1975, Projected 1975 2000)


Projected Trends


WRC (1975)
year 2000 = 155% of
year 1970 (34.0 bgd)


In 1972, 44 bgd of water were used in California.3/ Of that amount, 24

bgd were consumed (Figure 5). Consumptive use plus the water allocated for

wild and scenic rivers (approximately 16 bgd); salinity repulsion (3 bgd )

and outflow from Nevada (1.1 bgd), accounted for about 65 percent of Califor-

nia's available water in 1974. The remaining water supply amounted to about

24.3 bgd. 3/ At least one half of this amount cannot be recaptured, leaving

just 12.2 bgd for future development.

In 1975 urban water use, which includes commercial, residential and some

industrial and governmental use totalled, in withdrawals, some 3,388 mgd. This

figure is expected to reach 4,360 mgd by the year 2000. 2/ Irrigated agricul-

ture utilized about 29 bgd on 8.75 million acres in 1972. 3/ In 1975 this

figure was about 34.6 bgd according to the USGS (the California Department of

Water Resources figure is about 30 bgd) or 84 percent of that year's total

State fresh water withdrawal (Figure 5). By 2000 this figure is projected

to be about 35 bgd (California high Alternative) at which time it would repre-

sent about 80 percent of the fresh water withdrawal figure. Thermoelectric

generation could consume about 0.36 bgd by 1990 and skyrocket to about one

bgd by 2020. 3/ Mining utilized 0.7 percent and public land 1 percent of the

1975 figure for total withdrawals. The year 2000 will likely see little or no

increase in withdrawals in these two areas.2/ Manufacturing sliced 796 mgd

out of the 1975 withdrawal figure and this use is anticipated to hit 828 mgd

by 2000. 2/ Total fresh water withdrawals were 41,000 mgd in 1975 (USGS) and

California projects this may reach 44,000 mgd by 2000 (Alternative I).




IIIIr~


In 1975, water consumption attained 26,637 mgd, 91 percent of which was

accounted for by irrigation. By the year 2000 irrigation consumption is expected

to be about 26,311 mgd. In 1975, urban consumption was 1332 mgd; minerals 186

mgd; public lands 373 mgd; manufacturing 346 mgd; and other uses 266 mgd. By

2000, urban consumption may reach 1,782 mgd; minerals 208 mgd; public lands 386

mgd; manufacturing 594 mgd; and other uses 297 mgd. 2/

Table III shows that the total amount of applied water demands is projected

to expand from 37 maf (33 bgd) in 1972 to within the range of 43 to 55 maf (38 to

49 bgd) by 2020. Note, however, that these figures do not include saline water

and include only fresh water consumed in power cooling. Supplemental water re-

quirements for 1990 are scheduled to be in the vicinity of 1.4 to 3.4 bgd, and

attain 2.3 to 8.6 bgd by 2020. By 1974 these requirements were 2.1 bgd. Most

supplemental waters are retrieved presently at the expense of ground water

overdrafting. 3/


Water Problems

California is faced with an inadequate surface water supply. In addition,

the State is subjected to extensive erosion which is expected to hit 0.82 tons

an acre by 2000; flooding, primarily an urban problem estimated to cost

California $417 million a year; earthquakes; ground water overdrafting and

drainage difficulties.2/ Water pollution is also of concern, particularly around

the area of San Francisco Bay but this problem may diminish with the completion

of the State Water Project (SWP). The Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta is parti-

cularly susceptible to salinity problems,as is the imported water the State re-

ceives from the Colorado River and California's Salton Sea. 2/


Overdrafting of ground water is an important problem. Out of the 7.6 maf

of ground water removed annually, 2.2 maf are an overdraft.4/ Although additions

to the State Water Project and the Central Valley Project could alleviate this,

it is important to note that by 1990, the State's allotment of Colorado River

water will be cut from 5,150,000 maf to 4,400,000 maf due to implementation of

the Supreme Court allocation. 3/

Local water shortages are expected in the central and north coastal regions

of the State. The south coastal area may be rescued from a similar fate by the

SWP expected to come on line in 1990. The San Joaquin basin relies to a signif-

icant extent on ground water overdrafting and this dependence will in all proba-

bility continue for the next ten years. Even with the completion of the SWP

and the Central Valley Project, it appears that the Tulare basin will have to

draw excess ground water supplies to meet the demands of the area. Another

area of concern is the Colorado Desert which utilizes overdrafted water for

agricultural and urban needs. With the completion of the SWP, the severity

of overdraft might be alleviated in this region. 3/


Analysis


Figure 5 indicates that all of the alternative futures projections would

result in water use growth rates more conservative than those indicated by the

USGS 1955 to 1975 historic trends. The amount of water used in 1975, as deter-

determined by the USGS, is seen to be significantly different than California's

1972 base California's projections do not include total withdrawals for power

cooling but show consumptive use in that sector only. They also exclude saline

water which has been used extensively for steam electric cooling. USGS estimates

of irrigation water use for California are much greater than those made by the





~TF"'I


State. In 1972, the USGS estimate of irrigation water withdrawals was about

117 percent of California's estimate. This large variance appears to be related

to the assignment of unit water use per acre of land rather than in the estimate

of acres of land irrigated. California's approach appears to be more indicative

of actual field conditions and thus the USGS estimates of irrigation withdrawals

for the State may be inflated. This same type of disagreement has also been

noticed in estimates for other States, notably Colorado.

The California projections shown on Figure 5 do not include saline water

and thus the year 2000 figures shown for Alternatives I and IV are on the order

of 10 bgd less than they would be if saline water use were included even at the

same level as in 1975. California's projections are close to the year 2000 pro-

jection obtained using WRC's national trend. Even with the inclusion of saline

water they would be far less than the NWC trend indicates. This is not surpris-

ing since California's potential for increased water supplies is limited and

environmental controls are impacting significantly on water used for cooling

electric generating plants.

In its 1974 report, the California Department of Water Resources stated

that the situation regarding developed and available water supplies was still

favorable but the extent to which this conclusion would hold in the future

would depend on the completion of additional conveyance facilities. It was

pointed out that the degree of uncertainty of water availability to meet future

needs was less certain in 1974 than in 1970 for several reasons. These included:

added water requirements for water quality improvement and salinity control; a

world-wide increase in demand for agricultural products; and the movement toward

inland siting of power plants thereby putting greater stress on fresh water

supplies. Another factor cited was the lack of authorization for any major new


V PI R--_


water projects.

All four alternative futures show some increase in water withdrawals by

the year 2000 but none of the growth rates are particularly aggressive. The

largest absolute increases in water use are in the agricultural and urban sec-

tors. The Department of Water Resources indicated that irrigated acreages

might increase by 5 to 16 percent from 1972 to 1990 and by 7 to 29 percent by

2020. The range in urban water increase above 1972 levels of use is projected

to range from 22 to 41 percent in 1990. In the power generating sector, in-

creases in water use are also forecast. Here EPA regulations combined with

efforts to improve air quality, have combined to eliminate the use of once-

through cooling along the coast as a viable future prospect. The impact of

this will be future competition between power plants and other users for limited

inland water sources.

Finally, in evaluating actions to meet 1990 needs, the Department of Water

Resources concluded that Alternative II would be a reasonable basis for planning.

For long range actions to meet 2020 needs, Alternative III was considered to be

the most reasonable since it provided flexibility and minimized the likelihood

of oversizing facilities and overcommitting resources.



References

1. USDC, 1979.

2. SRF-18-1978.

3. State of California, the Resources Agency. Department of Water Resources.
The California Water Plan. Outlook in 1974. Summary Report. Bulletin
No. 160-74. Sacramento, California. November 1974.

4. State of California, the Resources Agency. Department of Water Resources.
The California Water Plan. Outlook in 1974. Bulletin No. 160-74. Sacramento,
California. November 1974.












Colorado


Introduction


Colorado, which comprises 34 percent of the Upper Colorado Region and has

the largest annual runoff of this area, 1/ is a semi-arid land due to sporadic

precipitation. The State plays host to some 2,765,000 (1980 estimate) inhab-

itants. 2/


_ Historic Data (USGS)


5 -


SI I I


Estimated Using
Colorado State University
1-* Data (1977)
,WRC (1975)
year 2000 = 155% of
year 1970 (10.5 bgd)


1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year


Projected Trends


In 1975, total water consumption reached 5.3 bgd with irrigated agriculture

utilizing the largest chunk, approximately 5.1 bgd (Figure 6). Crop irrigation

also accounts for the lion's share of water withdrawals (about 93 percent in

1975). If present water use trends continue, pressures on Colorado's water re-

sources may become critical. The development of energy resources (coal and oil

shale) may also require large amounts of water, adding to the problem.

The significant decrease in water withdrawals and in consumptive use in-

dicated in Figure 6 for the period 1970 to 1975 may be misleading. Estimates

of irrigated acreage by the USGS and others for 1970 are in disagreement. The

1970 figures by the USGS are considerably larger than those by Colorado State

University, for example. In spite of this variance, the trend from 1955

to 1975 is upward and it is likely that this will continue but at a subdued

rate. Since most of Colorado's water use is tied to the agricultural sector,

future water use trends will be strongly influenced by what happens there.

State projections to the year 2000 were not available at the time this report


Historic Data (USGS)
(Freshwater)


Estimated Using
Colorado State University
Data (1977)


11.5bgd


Other : : : '.


.. ........ ..'.'....
......................' ` ~ '' ''
'.'.~~.~..~. .. ... . . . . . . ...'.' '.'.


*-NWC (mid-projection)
year 2000 = 314% of
year 1970 (40.7 bgd)
(All water)


W.-WRC (1975) year
2000 =103% of
year 1970 (13.3 bgd)
(Freshwater)


1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year


Figure 6. Colorado Water Withdrawals and Consumptive Use
(Actual 1950 1975, Projected 1975 2000)


II.-.


6I I -I








46



was written.



Water Problems


The State of Colorado faces a number of water problems. The most signifi-

cant of these are the inadequacy of its surface water supply and ground water

overdrafts. In addition there are surface water pollution problems, especially

in the populous Denver area. Non-point pollution problems are expansive in

Colorado. They stem mostly from irrigation return flows and agricultural

chemicals. Other problems include ground water pollution, eutrophication and

drinking water quality. The contamination of rural drinking water supplies is

of particular concern in areas experiencing rapid growth.


Analysis


It is considered that water use trends for Colorado will be characterized

by very modest rates of increase between 1975 and the year 2000. This observa-

tion is based on the current situation in which the amount of water available

to Colorado is limited and offers relatively little opportunity for significant

expansion. Although State projections are not reported, a 1977 study by

Whittlesey at Colorado State University sheds some light on what the levels of

water withdrawals and consumptive use might be in 1995. 3/ Whittlesey's study

surveyed the potential for increased irrigation development and found that on

the basis of water availability and the likelihood of construction of new

irrigation facilities, an increase in consumptive use by irrigated agriculture

of about 500 mgd might occur by 1995. Using the 1975 ratio of irrigation with-

drawals to consumptive use, an approximate total withdrawal level for agricul-


ture would be about 10.2 bgd in 1995. Increases in water withdrawals in other

sectors, when added to this, would suggest a total 1995 withdrawal for all

purposes of slightly over 11 bgd.

The national trends projected by the WRC might not be too off target for

Colorado. The conservatism of WRC in projecting irrigation growth is parallel

to Colorado's circumstances. On the other hand, the mid-projection average

growth trend of NWC is obviously out of kilter for Colorado, even as an upper

limit. The reason being that this trend is heavily influenced by water use for

steam electric cooling and saline water use and these are not significant

factors in Colorado's water use picture.


References


1. SRF-14-1978.

2. USDC, 1979.

3. Whittlesey, N.R. Irrigation Development Potential In Colorado. Colorado
State University. Environmental Resources Center. Fort Collins, Colorado.
May 1977.



Connecticut


Introduction

The State of Connecticut, with a population of 3,205,000 (1980 estimate)

people 1/ constitutes seven percent of the New England Region. 2/ With several

hundred square miles of coastal land, Connecticut is subject to flooding and

erosion problems.

Projected Trends



As Figure 7 indicates, 1.4 bgd of fresh water were withdrawn and about


I.-













Historic Data (USGS)


0.5 1-


~- CC


S 0--------

I I I I


1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year


1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995
Year


-NWC (mid-projection)
year 2000= 314% of
year 1970 (7.5 bgd)
(All water)
Note: 1975 base
adjusted to 2.2 bgd
for making calculation











-WRC (1975) year
2000 = 103% of
year 1970 (1.6 bgd)
(Freshwater)


Figure 7. Connecticut Water Withdrawals and Consumptive Use
(Actual 1950 1975, Projected 1975 2000)


)--WRC (1975)
year 2000 = 155% of
year 1970 (0.28 bgd)


of saline water were used, mainly for power cooling. State projections to the

year 2000 were not available but the Connecticut Water Resources Department, in

conjunction with the USGS, is currently studying this issue.


Water Problems



Connecticut has its share of water problems. Twenty-four percent of her

major lakes experience eutrophication. 2/ Streambank erosion and flooding are

a regular occurrence, particularly in coastal areas. In addition, the WRC reports

that "Connecticut has lost 40 percent of its coastal marshlands, and less than

1,500 acres remain." 2/

Another concern of some significance occurs on two rivers, the Connecticut

and Deerfield. Here, the problem is associated with pumped storage facilities

which induce stream fluctuations. These result in stream bank slumps, habitat

destruction and disruption of recreational activities. 2/

The Connecticut western coastal area, constituting some 440 square miles,2/

experiences substantial pollution associated with sewer overflows, waste dis-

charge from municipalities and industries and oil seepages due to petroleum

transport. Flooding plagues the area as well. The WRC has recommended that

flood plain management schemes be implemented. 2/

The dredging of toxic sediments in the upper area of Norwalk Harbor is an

acute problem that has also created waste disposal and water use problems.

Water quality has been jeopardized along the lower reaches of the Housa-

tonic River and her tributary, the Naugatuck River, because of contamination

due to the combined presence of nonferrous metal and rubber industries and

sewer overflows. 2/ A very real concern is the rather high level 2/ of PCB




wI -,r


50



(polychlorinated biphemryl) concentrations in these waters. The WRC has also

reported a shortage of potable water and erosion and sedimentation problems in

the area.

The Thames River in the southeastern portion of the State poses pollution

problems to Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Connecticut due to the seepage of

sewage and industrial discharges. Finally, Norwich and New London, Connecticut,

are susceptible to the flooding of the Yantic River. 2/


Analysis


In 1975 about 70 percent of all water withdrawn (fresh and saline) was

used for steam electric cooling. About 50 percent of the 1.4 bgd of fresh water

withdrawn were dedicated to this purpose. Obviously, Connecticut's future water

use trends will be strongly influenced by the amounts of water used for power

cooling. If the population growth projected from 1975 to 2000 by the Bureau of

the Census is used as an indicator 2/, then fresh water withdrawals in the year

2000 would be about 1.7 bgd and total water withdrawals (fresh and saline)

would be about 3.2 bgd. These are probably conservative estimates but for the

fresh water component they are considered to be reasonable. In the saline water

category they might be low, depending upon the availability of coastal sites

for new electric generating plants and the forecasts for new facilities of this

type. In any event, it seems likely that the actual year 2000 total water with-

drawal figure will lie somewhere between the NWC trend value of 7.5 bgd and the

3.2 bgd figure arrived at by using the projected rate of population growth.

WRC's average national trend for fresh water using historic Connecticut

data as a base, yields a figure of 1.6 bgd for the year 2000. This very closely

agrees with the figure of 1.7 bgd obtained on the basis of projected population


51



growth. The NWC mid-projection trend is probably indicative of an upper limit

on the year 2000 water withdrawals but environmental regulations which will

likely reduce the number of new power plants with once-through cooling suggest

that this level of water use will not be achieved.


References


1. USDC, 1979.

2. SRF-1-1978.


Delaware


Introduction

Delaware, which ranks 46th in State population, is home to 611,000 (1980

estimate) people. 1/ The State makes up two percent of the Mid-Atlantic Region's

area.


Projected Trends


Based on a 1971 University of Delaware study, 2/ indications are that muni-

cipal water use will rise from 63.0 mgd in 1966 (22.7 mgd of groundwater and

40.3 mgd of surface water) to 95.6 mgd in 1980 and 144 mgd in 2000. Self-supplied

industries are projected to utilize 74.8 mgd in 1980 and 103 mgd in 2000, up

from the 55.1 mgd used in 1966 (15.1 mgd in ground water and 40.0 mgd in sur-

face water). Irrigation, which utilized 7.0 mgd of ground water and 8.0 mgd of

surface water in 1966, is estimated to increase its usage to a total of 27.4 mgd

in 1980 and 45 mgd in 2000. Rural water usage in 1966 was 8.2 mgd of ground water.

By 1980 this figure is forecast to be 16.6 mgd and by 2000, 28 mgd. By 2000, it








52



is estimated that total fresh water withdrawals will reach about 0.35 bgd (Figure

8).

In 1966 about 700 mgd of water (mostly saline) were used by industries in

the State for cooling. 2/ By 1975 this increased to about 1400 mgd. Most of

this water was returned directly to its source. As Figure 8 indicates, saline

water withdrawals in Delaware far exceed those for freshwater. The large steam

electric cooling requirements combined with the accessibility of sea water

suggest that this trend will continue.


Water Problems


In the past, Delaware has exported water to the New York City System and

to Philadelphia during droughts or when there was danger of insufficient water

supply. During such times Delaware's water supply system is also stressed. On

the other side of the coin is the problem of flooding. The lower Delaware River

is particularly susceptible to such incidences. 3/

Other problems inflicted upon the State include non-point source pollu-

tion, sedimentation, and pollution from agricultural chemicals, oil spills,

urban runoff and municipal and industrial wastes. The latter is important along

the Delaware Estuary, from Trenton to New Castle, where occasional toxicity,

high bacteria and low oxygen levels prevail.



Analysis


Except for steam electric cooling, projected water use trends for Delaware

show about the same rate of growth as the Bureau of Census population projec-

tions. Agricultural water use for irrigation has more than doubled in the

period 1968 to 1977 and further increases are expected. Projections by the


0.20
Historic Data (USGS)



0.10



S.0---0--0--0-0-2- WRC (1975)
year 2000 = 155% of
I I I I I I I 1 I year 1970 (0.04 bgd)
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year


3.0


2.0


1.0


Figure 8. Delaware Water Withdrawals and Consumptive Use
(Actual 1950- 1975, Projected 1975 2000)








54



University of Delaware indicate that year 2000 levels of irrigation water use

may be on the order of 50 mgd. This would constitute about 15 percent of all

fresh water withdrawals in contrast with about 10 percent agricultural use in

1966. This trend is significant and it strengthens concerns for eastern States

to consider pressures on their water supplies by irrigated agriculture. The

projected year 2000 withdrawal figure given in Figure 8 was determined by

applying the ratio of projected year 2000 population for the entire State of

Delaware to the population forecast for the Atlantic coastal drainage basins

and the Delaware River system, the area used by the University of Delaware in

making its projections. A more recent analysis of Delaware's water needs by

the State Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Control indicates

that 350 mgd might be a liberal year 2000 projection. Their figure, including

an estimate by CRS of agricultural use, would be slightly less than 300 mgd.

In any event, the WRC national trend is close to both projections. The NWC

trend is much higher but it includes saline water use which the Delaware pro-

jections do not. Although State projections of water use for steam electric

cooling were not available (saline water), it is expected that these will be

substantial. In this regard, the NWC national trend value of 3.75 bgd total

water withdrawals by 2000 might be reasonable. At least, it provides some

guidance on the complete water use picture.

The average dependable water supply for Delaware has been estimated by the

State to be about 500,000 gallons per square mile per day. This translates to

about one bgd. Summer low flow periods of about 200,000 bgd for seven consecutive

days are reported, however, and during such times the projected fresh water with-

drawal levels for the year 2000 would indicate the possibility of local water

supply problems.


55



References



1. USDC, 1979.

2. Sundstrom, R.W. and Varrin, R.D. Water Supply and Use in the Drainage
Basins of the Delaware River System and Atlantic Coastal Drainage Basins in
Delaware. University of Delaware. Newark, Delaware. March 1971.

3. SRF-2-1978.


Florida


Introduction


Florida has a land mass of 54,090 square miles I/ and a population of

9,301,000 people (1980 estimate). 2/ In 1975, State water withdrawals were

approximately 18 bgd, more than 3 bgd over 1970 figures. 3/ Of the 1975

amount, about 61 percent was saline water and less than two percent was re-

trieved from wells. Most of the saline water was used for thermoelectric power

cooling.

Irrigation utilized 2,868 mgd of fresh water during 1975 and consumed nearly

one half of this amount. 3/ Thermoelectric power generation used 1,698 mgd of

fresh water; public supplies 1,146 mgd; industries other than thermoelectric 940

mgd; and rural domestic and livestock 266 mgd. 3/


Florida's population expanded by some 2,510,000 inhabitants during the

period 1970 to 1980 and if this growth trend continues, fresh water supplies in

some localities may be severely stressed.


Projected Trends


Approximately 6.9 bgd of the total 18 bgd of water withdrawn during 1975

was fresh water. 3/ Surface water contributed 3,600 mgd to this figure while

ground water supplied the remaining 48 percent. 3/ Figure 9 shows the historic

distribution of water useage. The heavy dependence on saline water use should be


61-11q














O )-WRC (1975)
0,- --- year 2000 = 155% of
year 1970 (2.9 bgd)


0 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year
Yr NWC (mid-projection)
Year 2000 = 314% of
year 1970 (47 bgd)
(All water)


Historic Data (USGS)



Note: Saline water is
used extensively for
power cooling


h -


It. A


7/ 7/7//A


9'16\
uses ~
tonsIl tee~









(


I I I


29 bgd












)-WRC (1975) year
2000 = 103% of
year 1970 (7.3 bgd)
(Freshwater)


1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year


Historic Data (USGS)


Analysis


The Florida State Water Plan being prepared by the Department of Environ-

mental Regulation (1978) includes water use projections for several of Florida's

Water Management Districts. The data are not sufficient to indicate projected


noted. Irrigation and power cooling accounted for about 83 percent of all with-

drawal uses and this trend is likely to continue. A USGS analysis (1978) indi-

cated that the total water withdrawn for all uses in Florida will average

essentially 38 bgd by the year 2020 (about 29 bgd in 2000). This calculated

amount was determined by using the University of Florida's population projec-

tions, current trends, per capital use and other factors. The projected year 2000

figure is about 1.5 times greater than the 1975 water withdrawal level.


Water Problems


Several areas of Florida are subjected to surface water pollution from

point sources. Southwestern Florida experiences extensive non-point source

pollution as well. High levels of nutrients are evident in some sections of the

peninsula portion of the State and eutrophication is widespread (covering about

half of the State). Drinking water quality problems are also experienced in

southwest Florida. 4/

Ground water pollution is extensive in the north, southwest and southern

tip of Florida. Salt water intrusion and high levels of minerals are the

principal culprits.

Flooding is a problem in the northwest section of the State and estuarine

and shoreline erosion problems are spread along the north and south Atlantic

Coast and along the Gulf Coast as well. 4/


I I I I


II I





Ii


Figure 9. Florida Water Withdrawals and Consumptive Use
(Actual 1950 1975, Projected 1975 2000)








58



State-wide levels of water use in all water using sectors but they are adequate

to suggest the relative rates of growth anticipated in the various sectors. Ir-

rigated agriculture is expected to expand and increases in power cooling require-

ments are also projected (18 new steam electric plants are projected to come on

stream between 1979 and 1988). Considering this, it seems that the WRC pro-

jected average national growth rate is probably too low in terms of Florida's

growth potential. Using the Bureau of Census mid-level population growth rate

forecast for the period 1975 to 2000, a fresh water withdrawal level of about

10.7 bgd would be expected in the year 2000 even if only population influences

were considered. This is considerably greater than the 7.3 bgd figure obtained

from application of WRC's national trend value. The Florida projection of 29

bgd for the year 2000 closely coincides with the high population forecast

growth rate determined by the Bureau of Census. The NWC national trend, applied

to Florida, would yield a year 2000 total water withdrawal level of about 47

bgd. Increased emphasis on water conservation and reuse combined with apparent

declines in rates of cooling water increase due to environmental and power plant

siting factors appear to rule this level of development out of the plausible

range. Considering the "sunbelt" growth potential of Florida, the State's

projected year 2000 level seems reasonable. It might be more representative of

an upper limit, however, especially if the Nation's economy continues to slow

and significant shifts away from once-through cooling take place.


References


BLM, 1976.

USDC, 1979.


59



3. U.S. Geological Survey. Source, Use, and Disposition of Water in Florida,
1975. Water Resources Investigation 78-17. S.C. Lesch. Tallahassee, Florida.
April 1978.

4. U.S. Water Resources Council. The Nation's Water Resources 1975-2000.
Volume 1: Summary, U.S. Gov't Print. Off. Washington, D.C. 1978.

5. National Coal Association. Steam Electric Plant Factors 1979. Washington,
D.C. 1979.

Georgia


Introduction


Lying within the South Atlantic Gulf Region is the State of Georgia. The

estimated 1980 population is 5,262,000 people. 1/ The State encompasses four

regions: the Valley and Ridge, Piedmont, Blue Ridge and Coastal Plain and is

subject to water quality, flood and erosion problems. Water supply demands for

some uses are expected to increase by 50 percent or more between 1975 and the

year 2000.

Projected Trends


Public water supply, rural, self-supplied industrial, thermoelectric power

and hydropower usage have been studied by the Georgia Department of Natural Re-

sources (1974). 2/ During a twenty year span, from 1950 to 1970, ground water

withdrawals increased 98 percent, from 348 mgd to 690 mgd. Surface water with-

drawals climbed from 455 mgd in 1950 to 933 mgd in 1970. Finally, thermoelectric

plants utilized 3,940 mgd in water withdrawals during 1970, a 226 percent in-

crease over the previous 20 years. 2/ Excluding power generation, water use

increased some 104 percent during that 20 year interval. 2/ Consumptive use

is forecast to climb from 318 mgd in 1970, to 760 mgd by 1990. 2/

In 1970, State figures indicated water withdrawals were 5,563 mgd (690 mgd

from ground water and 4,873 mgd from surface water) for public water supply,

rural water use, self-supplied industries and thermoelectric power production.2/








60



The public supply utilized 10 percent of the total supply and this accommo-

dated 74 percent of Georgia's inhabitants. 2/ Approximately 69 percent of

this water was contributed by surface supplies, the remainder from aquifers.

Commerce and industry received 266 mgd and residences the rest. 2/ By 1990

the public supply is expected to witness a 100 percent jump in use with with-

drawals for this category expanding from the 1970 figure of 564 mgd to 705

mgd in 1980, and finally to 1,120 mgd in 1990. Consumptive use in this sector

is expected to reach 130 mgd by 1990. 2/

Rural sector use, which includes domestic, livestock and irrigation,

utilized a total of 122.57 mgd in 1970.* 2/ In 1980 domestic use is forecast

to rise just slightly, to 60 mgd; livestock to 27 mgd and irrigation to 45 mgd.

Domestic use is estimated to remain constant for 1990, but climb to 32 mgd and

53 mgd for livestock and irrigation, respectively. 2/ Consumptive use for 1990

is estimated at 59 mgd for rural domestic water, 24 mgd for livestock and 40 mgd

for irrigation. 2/

Self-supplied industrial use totalled 931.94 mgd in 1970. 2/ By 1990,

this sector is expected to experience a 75 percent increase. 2/ Nearly equal

proportions are contributed by ground and surface waters. In addition, approxi-

mately 195 mgd were furnished to industries from the public supply sector. By

1990, consumptive use is expected to reach 65 mgd. 2/ Indications are that the

1970 withdrawal figure will jump to 1,240 mgd in 1980 and to 1,650 mgd by 1990. 2/

Thermoelectric power accounted for 71 percent of the withdrawn water or

3,944.44 mgd in 1970. 2/ A study by R.F. Carter and A.M.F. Jonhson reported

that these plants utilized three and one half times the water of all other in-


Domestic use totaled 59.47 mgd, livestock 23.54 mgd and irrigation 39.56 mgd
in 1970


61



dustrial uses combined. 2/ By 1980 and 1990, indications are that thermoelec-

tric power will withdraw about 3,950 mgd. 2/ Thermoelectric power consumptive

use is considered negligible in Georgia at present.

As Figure 10 shows, saline water will play only a slightly increasing role

in water supply by the year 2000 in comparison to fresh water usage.


Water Problems


Georgia experiences problems of urban waste, industrial and municipal

wastes, flooding, erosion and sedimentation. Around the Atlanta and Columbus

areas, degradation of water quality is evident. The Coosa River Basin area of

northwest Georgia experiences pollution problems and sedimentation due to in-

dustrial and municipal wastes. 2/ The Flint River regularly floods areas in the

vicinity of Atlanta, Macon and Albany.

There is evidence that ground water depletions are occurring in some south-

west sections of the State. The water supply problem is exacerbated by demands

placed on it by irrigation, domestic and industrial uses.

Finally, hydroelectric plants on occasion have contributed to low oxygen

content in Georgia streams during summer months. 2/


Analysis


Total fresh water withdrawals in 1975 amounted to 5,400 mgd. Eighty-five

percent of the water used was from surface sources while the remainder came

from the ground. About 520 mgd of saline water were also used. Projections of

water use to the year 1990 were made by the Georgia Department of Natural Re-

sources. 2/ They concluded that there would be an increase of 100 percent for















1.0 bgd



)- WRC (1975)
year 2000 = 155% of
year 1970 (0.68 bgd)






)0

)- NWC (mid-projection)
year 2000 = 314% of
year 1970 (16.6 bgd)
(All water)










7.6 bgd


)- WRC (1975) year
2000 =103% of
year 1970 (5.5 bgd)
(Freshwater)


public water supply systems, 18 percent for all rural uses, and 75 percent for

self-supplied thermoelectric cooling to the year 1990. This determination was

based on the supply systems, 18 percent for all rural uses, and 75 percent for

self-supplied industry. It was estimated that there would be no increases in

water use for premise that the mode of cooling for new plants would shift from

once-through cooling to the use of cooling towers. Although no increase in

cooling water use was forecast, it was estimated that the consumption of elec-

tricity in Georgia would double from 1970 to 1980 and double again from 1980

to 1990. The National Coal Association reports that 9 new plants are expected

to be placed on stream during the period 1979 to 1988. If the decline in use

of once-through cooling is not realized, the water use figures reported by

Georgia would be low. For example, the State estimated that a fourfold increase

in withdrawals of water for cooling would be experienced if the new plants

were to use the once-through cooling mode. Consumptive use is projected to

increase more than 100 percent by 1990. It was noted that a large part of the

increase would be due to evaporative losses in thermoelectric plant cooling

towers.

The water use growth rate projected by the State of Georgia is generally

parallel to projected population increases. For example, the Bureau of the Census

Series II-B projection indicates a growth rate for Georgia of about 140 per-

cent from 1975 to 2000. Applying this factor to the 1975 withdrawal level of

5,900 mgd (fresh and saline combined), would yield a year 2000 water use of 8.2

bgd. This is in close agreement with Georgia's projection of 7.6 bgd. Since

water use for irrigation is small, and under Georgia's assumption of no new

oncethrough power plant cooling, population growth will be a controlling

factor in water use. While the WRC national trend would yield a somewhat lower

water use projection for 2000 (5.5 bgd) it is probably not a bad indicator of the


Year


Figure 10. Georgia Water Withdrawals and Consumptive Use
(Actual 1950- 1975, Projected 1975- 2000)








64



limit of growth. If once-through cooling for new steam electric plants was anti-

cipated or occurred, then the NWC trend value of 16.6 bgd would not be far from

the target and might even be low.

References


1. USDC, 1979.

2. Carter, R.F. and Johnson, A.M.F. Use of Water in Georgia, 1970 with Pro-
jections to 1990. Department of Natural Resources. Hydrologic Reports 2.
Atlanta, Georgia. 1974.


Hawaii


Introduction


The State of 132 volcanic islands (eight major ones), Hawaii has a pop-

ulation of 931,000 (1980 estimate). 1/ Predominatly rural, the main industries

of the island are pineapple and sugarcane production. Hawaii, the leading

sugarcane producer of the United States, grew approximately 9.5 million tons

on 221,400 acres in 1975. 2/ The State is also a leader in fresh market vege-

tables.

There is as yet no significant hydroelectric nor any geothermal de-

velopment in Hawaii although a geothermal well has been constructed. For the

major portion of her energy needs, Hawaii presently depends on petroleum.


Projected Trends


Indications are that overall water suppy will continue to exceed demand

though individual islands may fall victim to scarcities. 2/

In 1975, agriculture accounted for about 38 percent of total water with-

drawals; steam electric cooling about 48 percent; and domestic, commercial and


65



manufacturing uses accounted for the remainder (Figure 11). Saline water

comprised about 40 percent of total withdrawals and this was used almost

exclusively for power cooling. According to WRC, year 2000 fresh water with-

drawals will decrease to about 1,350 mgd due to a projected decline in agricul-

tural water use. 2/ Total water consumption is projected to increase slightly

to about 665 mgd in 2000. 2/ This is forecast to be distributed as follows:

agriculture 71.1 percent; domestic and commercial use 12.1 percent; and manu-

facturing 16.8 percent. 2/ Saline water use has taken on increased importance,

as the period from 1960 to 1975 indicates.


Water Problems


Hawaii's water problems include water quality, flooding, siltation, sewage

pollution of inshore waters, chemical pollution and thermal pollution. The

latter problem is most pronounced on Oahu which provides about 90 percent of

all the power used in the State. The utilization of limited estuarine habitat

by endangered waterbirds has also been raised as an issue in recent years.

Analysis


According to WRC's State-Regional Futures (SRF) Analysis, Hawaii's water

supply problems are not due to lack of rainfall, but to inequalities in its

distribution. 2/ Nevertheless, the SRF study indicates that with proper planning

and management, the water resources will be adequate and that on a statewide

scale, no foreseeable shortages will occur. The recoverable supply is estimated


-I


/ I







1



I :
'
'I













Historic Data (USGS)
/~--------- i


I I I I


1950 1955 1960 1965


1970


197
Yea


Historic Data (USGS)









Saline water used mostly for cooling



-- S \ -

Fr irrigation ..

Freshwater
,


I I I I
5 1980 1985 1990 1995 2C













WRC State Regional
Futures, 1978 (Freshwater)


0.67 bgd








DO
)--NWC (mid-projection)
year 2000 = 314% of
year 1970 (10.4 bgd)
(All water)


WRC (1975)
year 2000 = 155% of
year 1970 (1.25 bgd)

WRC State Regional
Futures (1978)


Figure 11. Hawaii Water Withdrawals and Consumptive Use
(Actual 1950 1975, Projected 1975 2000)


67



to be about three times the statewide needs through the year 2000, although the

current supply capability may become inadequate before then. The SRF overview

also forecast that the demand for water on Oahu would exceed currently available

supplies around the year 2000.

SRF's estimates of future self-supplied industrial water needs is based

upon forecasts developed by the Office of Business Research and Analysis of the

U.S. Bureau of Domestic Commerce. A basic assumption underlying these forecasts

is that the objectives of the 1972 Water Pollution Control Act Amendments would

be met, implying zero discharge by the year 2000. Under such conditions, steadily

increasing use of recirculation by large water users and the discharge of all

wastewaters into public sewer systems by small water users would be expected. A

second important assumption was that cooling water would be recycled through

the use of cooling lagoons or cooling towers, and that power plants using brack-

ish water for once-through cooling would convert to closed systems using fresh

water. These key assumptions greatly impact water use projections in the manu-

facturing sector indicating decreasing total industrial water use despite pro-

jections of expanded industrial activity.

Water for irrigation in Hawaii is of considerable importance because such

use of fresh water far exceeds that for any other fresh water use. Estimation

of future water needs for irrigation was deemed difficult by SRF because of the

lack of a reasonable method for projecting the rate of growth of agriculture or

predicting when any expansion or decline might occur. 2/ Problems relating to

the economics of irrigation, the current flux in water rights, and the scarcity

of developable sources of supply, were noted as contributing to the uncertainty.

Irrigation water needs in Hawaii are tied mainly to the sugar industry.

Sugar is the largest export commodity and this condition is expected to remain


_ ~ ~ ________ ~_~___ _p


Fresh + Saline
(CRS Estimate) 2.34 bgd
Q WRC (1975) year
2000= 103% of
Frehwater year 1970 (1.8 bgd)
1.35 bgd (Freshwater)

I I I I


1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year







70



Estimated From Idaho
Water Plan (1976)


)-WRC (1975)
year 2000 = 155% of
year 1970 (7.3 bgd)




S I I I


1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year


Historic Data (USGS)
(Freshwater)


Estimated From Idaho
Water Plan (1976)


-NWC (mid-projection)
year 2000 = 314% of
year 1970 (50 bgd)
(All water)







-WRC (1975) year
2000 = 103% of
year 1970 (16.5 bgd)
(Freshwater)


Historic Data (USGS)


Figure 12. Idaho Water Withdrawals and Consumptive Use
(Actual 1950 1975, Projected 1975 2000)


grow at approximately 4.5 percent a year through 2020. 3/ In the past the rate
was a much higher 8.3 percent. Although the potential exists to expand hydro-
electric power development, reduced construction of water projects and other
factors suggest that thermoelectric development might be the most likely alter-
native energy source. This would spur increases in power cooling needs. Compared
to water use in other sectors they would be small but in the year 2000 Idaho es-
timates that about 81 mgd would be consumptively used.

Water Problems

In general, Idaho has an ample supply of good quality water. There are,

however, some problems. 4/ In two areas of the southwestern section of the
State, diminished spring and stream flow have occurred. Some point source pol-
lution is conspicuous in the southwest corner of the State, but for the most
part, municipal and industrial wastes do not pose any significant problems.
Eutrophication is noted along the northcentral border with Oregon while in the
southeastern corner of the State, flooding and erosion occur.
Analysis

Irrigated agriculture uses about 7 percent of Idaho's land and produces
about 85 percent of the agricultural returns. Growth in this sector is pro-
jected to continue but at a pace moderated by the availability of land, water,
energy and funding and by environmental controls. Between 1974 and 2000 it is
projected that about 1 million acres of new land and about 400,000 acres of
land needing supplemental water will be added to the irrigation picture. This
is a rather modest projection of growth in light of the estimated 8 million
acres of land which are potentially irrigable.


I I I I I


1950


1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year


..... .. .. ., 7 7 7



Irrigation~~....,'..Iriato
.. . I irrigation. ....- ~ ~
... . . . . .~ ~~~
. . . . . . . -'-` I .: .: : *-:- :-:::-::


i







72



Electric power use is expected to increase in Idaho over the next 50 years.

A combination of hydroelectric and thermal facilities could fill the projected

needs but anticipated construction and environmental constraints may limit this

option. In terms of water use, the "all thermal" alternative would be the most

water demanding. The Idaho Water Resources Board estimates that a consumptive

use requirement of about 180 mgd of water would be imposed by 2020 under this

condition of development. Changes in electrical energy consumption could, how-

ever, significantly alter the projection. Regardless of the reliability of the

estimate, irrigation water use will still dominate Idaho's water use scene.

While municipal and industrial use is forecast to increase by as much as

100 percent by the year 2000, it will still represent only a small fraction of

the water used in the State.

Applying the Series II-B population growth rate to Idaho's water use in

1975 yields a projected year 2000 level of about 25 bgd. This is somewhat higher

than the 20.5 bgd figure obtained using Idaho water planning data but is gen-

erally consistent with it when allowance is made for slower growth in the agri-

cultural sector. The WRC national trend when applied to Idaho gives a year 2000

value slightly lower than that projected by the State but it is comparable and

parallels Idaho's conservative projection of irrigation water growth. The NWC

trend is strongly biased by power cooling and thus seems unreasonably high even

for an upper limit of growth for Idaho.


References


1. USDC, 1979.

2. BLM, 1976.

3. Idaho Water Resources Board. State of Idaho: The State Water Plan-Part Two.
Boise, Idaho. December 1976.


73



4. U.S. Water Resources Council. The Nation's Water Resources 1975 2000.
U.S. Gov't. Print. Off., Washington, D.C. December 1978.


Illinois


Introduction


A north central State lying predominantly in the Upper Hississippi Region,

Illinois encompasses 23 percent of that drainage basin. The 1980 population

was estimated to be 11,376,000. 1/ The State comprises 7 percent of the Ohio

River Basin and 3 percent of the Great Lakes Region. Illinois is bordered by

the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers and Lake Michigan.

The State is an agricultural leader in soybean production, accounting for

one-fifth of the nation's total production. Large amounts of cereals, corn and

dairy products are also produced. The State is an important meatpacker and

iron and steel producer as well as a leader in the production and processing of

petroleum and coal. 2/

Projected Trends



In 1975 the USGS reported water withdrawals for the State at 12.5 bgd and

consumptive use at about 0.2 bgd (Figure 13). From 1965 to 1975 a very signifi-

cant decrease in withdrawals and consumptive use was recorded. This was due to

increased industrial recycling and shifting from once-through cooling to cooling

ponds and towers. Statewide projections of water use to the year 2000 were not

available although some extensive multi-county studies have been made, notably

for northeastern Illinois. 3/ There is little irrigated agriculture in the

State so its importance as an industrial center dominates the water scene. The

power cooling sector is very important, representing about 72 percent of all


7F",- I




















-WRC (1975)
year 2000 = 155% of
year 1970 (0.55 bgd)


30 Historic Data (USGS)
(Freshwater)
25-


15


1950


0-




I h .


I- NWC (mid-projection)
year 2000 = 314% of
year 1970 (50 bgd)
(All water)











0- O o---- )-WRC (1975) year
2000= 103% of
year 1970 (16.5 bgd)
(Freshwater)






I I I I


1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year


water used in 1975. What happens in that sector will be particularly influential

in impacting future water use trends.


Water Problems


Illinois faces problems of acid mine drainage due to the State's coal pro-

duction; water demands for crop production; municipal and industrial waste pol-

lution around its urban centers; water shortages around Chicago; flooding; and

erosion of agricultural lands. 3/ In addition, ground water deficiencies and

water quality problems have occurred in the southwestern section of the Big Muddy

River and the Kaskaskia River Basins. The WRC reports that:

Future water requirements for coal production alone are
projected to nearly double between 1975 and 2000. Ground
water supplies taken from bedrock aquifers yield brackish
and saline water unsuitable for most water withdrawal pur-
poses. Yields from glacial drift and alluvial aquifers are
characterized by high concentrations of bicarbonate, iron
and dissolved solids. 3/

Ground water shortages are of particular concern to water using industries,

municipalities and farmers. Droughts in the Kaskaskia region could result in

water shortages. Except in the Wisconsin Drift, above Shelbyville, the amount

of water available in that area is just adequate to deal with the water demand.3/

Surface and ground water supplies in the southern section of the Sangamon

River Basin are presently under stress, and the quality of the water in that

area is suffering from a variety of causes. Along the La Moine River, the po-

tential exists for future water supply problems. Water quality degradation is

acute in parts of the Illinois River.


Analysis


Figure 13. Illinois Water Withdrawals and Consumptive Use
(Actual 1950 1975, Projected 1975 2000)


The WRC average national trend when applied to Illinois yields a projected

year 2000 water withdrawal level of about 16.5 bgd. The noted downturn in cooling







76



water use makes WRC's basic assumptions similar to the prevailing Illinois

conditions. Using the Series II-B population growth rate to extend the 1975

Illinois data, a year 2000 withdrawal figure of about 13.4 bgd is obtained. The

water demand growth rate for Cook County projected by the Illinois State Water

Survey in 1976 might also serve as an indicator of the direction to be taken by

the State water use trend. That factor (about 35 percent increase in water de-

mand from 1970 to 2000), when used to extrapolate the 1975 data base, gives a

year 2000 level of withdrawals of about 17 bgd. On the strength of the evidence

available, it would seem that a year 2000 level of about 17 bgd is probable,

although any great change in the trend in power cooling could alter this signifi-

cantly. The National Coal Association reports that 18 new plants will become

operational by 1988. The NWC trend, as applied to Illinois, seems to represent

conditions in the power cooling sector that do not fit the case for Illinois.

The figure of 50 bgd appears unlikely to be more than a rough guide to an

upper limit.

References


1. USDC, 1979.

2. Encyclopedia Britannica, Volume II. "Illinois". 1972.

3. Illinois State Water Survey. Water Resources Availability, Quality
and Cost in Northern Illinois. Report of Investigation 83.
Urbana, Illinois. 1976.


Indiana


Introduction


Indiana has a population of 5,438,000 people (1980 projection) 1/ and it

includes 23,102,080 acres of relatively flat land. 2/ The average annual rain-

fall is 38 inches. 3/ To an extent, the water supply of Indiana is influenced


77



by other States' actions on interstate waterways such as Lake Michigan, the

lower Wabash River and the Ohio River. The Indiana Water Resource Study reported

that:

There are approximately 520 natural lakes and artificial im-
poundments having a surface area of 50 or more acres and/or
a storage capacity of 100 acre-feet (32.5 million gallons) or
more. These lakes and/or reservoirs have a combined surface
area of about 92,800 acres and a gross storage capacity of some
606,000 million gallons. Of this total, approximately 195,500
million gallons are dedicated to the purpose of water supply. 3/


Projected Trends

In 1977, 13,857.75 mgd of water were withdrawn and 617.83 mgd were consumed

(Figure 14). 3/ Withdrawals were as follows: public water supplies (for 13 cities)

553.69 mgd; self supplied industrial use 3,456.94 mgd; rural water supplies 147.27

mgd; irrigation 196.77 mgd; energy production 9,492.88 mgd; coal processing 9.20

mgd; and oil well injection 1 mgd. By 2000 these figures are projected to be:

757.64 mgd for public water supplies; 3,430.35 mgd for self supplied industries;

209.37 mgd for rural water; 451.65 mgd for irrigation; 4,705.33 mgd for energy;

308.00 mgd for unallocated energy; 31.20 mgd for coal processing; and 1.0 mgd

for oil well injection, for a grand total of 9,894.54 mgd-about 1,000 mgd less

than the total reported in 1975. 3/

Consumptive use of water is projected to rise, however. 3/ In 1977 con-

sumption totaled 617.83 mgd. Irrigation was the largest consumer at 196.77 mgd

followed closely by rural water use at 147.27 mgd and self-supplied industry at

146.71 mgd. By the year 2000, consumption is projected to increase to 1,399.70

mgd. Irrigation will still be the leader at 451.65 mgd followed by self-supplied

industries at 256.53 mgd. Trends in other sectors are indicated on Figure 14.

As of 1978, there were five hydroelectric power plants in operation. Ex-


__ I_



































30

Indiana Water Resources NWC (mid-projection
25 year 2000 = 314% of
Commission Projections year 1970 (27 bgd)
Historic Data (USGS) (1978)0 (27
(Freshwater) (Freshwater) (Awater)
20


15


10 -- l"ran
10 C WRCi 19751year
e 1 2000= 103 o of
< '" -. year 1970 19.0 hbgd)
IF lehwate)
.. -. .*. "" i ... --. .rragatione
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year


Figure 14. Indiana Water Withdrawals and Consumptive Use
(Actual 1950- 1975, Projected 1975 2000)


79



pension of such facilities is inhibited by the low flows of the State's water-

ways.3/ Most of the installed electric generating capacity of the State is com-

prised of coal-fired boilers which, according to the Indiana Water Resource

Study, account for the largest single water use in the State. Indiana with-

drawals for electric power production are expected to decrease significantly

from the 1977 figure of 9,500 mgd to 5,000 mgd in 2000, though consumption is

projected to spiral upward from 48 mgd in 1977 to 354 mgd in 2000. 3/


Water Problems

The northwestern corner of Indiana suffers from surface water difficulties

during dry years while the northeastern corridor of the State experiences ground

water overdraft. 4/ There is also extensive point source pollution throughout

most of the State's surface waters and nonpoint source pollution is evident as

well. 4/ Eutrophication runs rampant through most of Indiana. 4/

Pollution of ground water occurs in the northwest and northeast corners

although the quality of the State's drinking water supply does not appear to be

affected. 4/ There is also extensive flooding, erosion and sedimentation. 4/


Analysis


Approximately 13.9 bgd were withdrawn in 1977 with less than five percent

consumed. 3/ However, it is projected that as water withdrawals decrease to

about 9.9 bgd by the year 2000, the rate of water consumption will increase

more than 14 percent. This decline in water withdrawals and increase in water

consumption is expected because of forecast changes from once-through cooling

to the use of cooling towers or cooling lakes in the production of energy.

Figure 14 shows that in 1977, power cooling was by far the largest with-

drawal user. Projected power demands indicate a long-term growth rate in demand


n)








80



for electric power of about 5 percent per year. 3/ In addition, the National

Coal Association reports that 20 new plants will be on-stream in Indiana by 1988.

These growth trends are not reflected in Indiana's projections of water with-

drawals in the power cooling sector where a substantial decrease in withdrawals

is forecast between the years 1990 and 2000. This decrease in water withdrawals

results from the anticipated retirement of a number of existing plants utilizing

the once-through cooling method. The decrease from 9.5 bgd to about 5 bgd is

generally independent of the projected growth rates in use of electricity. As

total withdrawals decline, water consumption is expected to rise sharply as

cooling towers and ponds having high evaporative losses replace once-through

plants. If the anticipated trend in cooling mode does not hold up, the projected

year 2000 withdrawal level could be considerably less than anticipated.

The year 2000 level of 9 bgd obtained by applying WRC's national trend to

the historic data is very close to Indiana's projected figure. This is due to

the similar assumption about shift in cooling mode. The NWC trend would yield

a year 2000 withdrawal of about 27 bgd. This might be a reasonable upper limit

if once-through cooling continued to be used in at least some new thermoelectric

facilities.

References


1. USDC, 1979.

2. BLM, 1976.

3. Governor's Water Resources Study Commission. The Indiana Water Resource.
Volume One. Availability Uses and Needs. Preliminary. Indianapolis, Indiana.
1979.

4. U.S. Water Resources Council. The Nation's Water Resources 1975-2000,
U.S. Gov't. Print. Off., Washington, D.C. December 1978.


Introduction


A midwest State, Iowa has a population of 2,879,000 people. 1/ Seventy-

two percent of the State's inhabitants are serviced by 765 public water supply

systems. 2/

Projected Trends


In 1975 water withdrawals amounted to 163 mgd for agriculture; 507 mgd

for manufacturing and 2,670 mgd for utilities. Total withdrawals for that year

amounted to 3,612 mgd. By 2000, Iowa projects that total withdrawals will

reach approximately 29.7 bgd. 3/ Agriculture is expected to be withdrawing 613

mgd by then; manufacturing 1,565 mgd; and utilities and sanitation services 26.2

bgd (Figure 15). 3/ Consumptive use was 263 mgd in 1975. By 1990, this figure

is estimated to reach 424 mgd and by 2020 it is expected to be 2,050 mgd. 3/

The electric utility sector is the largest water user in Iowa. In 1967, it

accounted for about 65 percent of the total water intake. By 2000 it is pro-

jected that it will account for about 73 percent of all water withdrawn (Figure

15).

Another sector in which the demand for water supply is likely to increase

is coal mining. Iowa presently has between 180 million and 1 billion tons of

strippable coal which could be processed (Bureau of Mines Survey). The problem

is that the coal is high in sulfur content and extra water will be needed to

remove this mineral from the coal. 4/

Irrigated agriculture utilized about 225,000 acre feet of water in 1977.

By 2000, current estimates are that it may reach from about 0.5 to 1.2 bgd,


II


ii



S ii


Rio 1_












for electric power of about 5 percent per year. 3/ In addition, the National

Coal Association reports that 20 new plants will be on-stream in Indiana by 1988.

These growth trends are not reflected in Indiana's projections of water with-

drawals in the power cooling sector where a substantial decrease in withdrawals

is forecast between the years 1990 and 2000. This decrease in water withdrawals

results from the anticipated retirement of a number of existing plants utilizing

the once-through cooling method. The decrease from 9.5 bgd to about 5 bgd is

generally independent of the projected growth rates in use of electricity. As

total withdrawals decline, water consumption is expected to rise sharply as

cooling towers and ponds having high evaporative losses replace once-through

plants. If the anticipated trend in cooling mode does not hold up, the projected

year 2000 withdrawal level could be considerably less than anticipated.

The year 2000 level of 9 bgd obtained by applying WRC's national trend to

the historic data is very close to Indiana's projected figure. This is due to

the similar assumption about shift in cooling mode. The NWC trend would yield

a year 2000 withdrawal of about 27 bgd. This might be a reasonable upper limit

if once-through cooling continued to be used in at least some new thermoelectric

facilities.


References


1. USDC, 1979.

2. BLM, 1976.

3. Governor's Water Resources Study Commission. The Indiana Water Resource.
Volume One. Availability Uses and Needs. Preliminary. Indianapolis, Indiana.
1979.

4. U.S. Water Resources Council. The Nation's Water Resources 1975-2000,
U.S. Gov't. Print. Off., Washington, D.C. December 1978.


T


81



Iowa


Introduction


A midwest State, Iowa has a population of 2,879,000 people. I/ Seventy-

two percent of the State's inhabitants are serviced by 765 public water supply

systems. 2/

Projected Trends


In 1975 water withdrawals amounted to 163 mgd for agriculture; 507 mgd

for manufacturing and 2,670 mgd for utilities. Total withdrawals for that year

amounted to 3,612 mgd. By 2000, Iowa projects that total withdrawals will

reach approximately 29.7 bgd. 3/ Agriculture is expected to be withdrawing 613

mgd by then; manufacturing 1,565 mgd; and utilities and sanitation services 26.2

bgd (Figure 15). 3/ Consumptive use was 263 mgd in 1975. By 1990, this figure

is estimated to reach 424 mgd and by 2020 it is expected to be 2,050 mgd. 3/

The electric utility sector is the largest water user in Iowa. In 1967, it

accounted for about 65 percent of the total water intake. By 2000 it is pro-

ected that it will account for about 73 percent of all water withdrawn (Figure

15).

Another sector in which the demand for water supply is likely to increase

it coal mining. Iowa presently has between 180 million and 1 billion tons of

strippable coal which could be processed (Bureau of Mines Survey). The problem

is that the coal is high in sulfur content and extra water will be needed to

remove this mineral from the coal. 4/

Irrigated agriculture utilized about 225,000 acre feet of water in 1977.

By 2000, current estimates are that it may reach from about 0.5 to 1.2 bgd,



















I i4

















Historic Data (USGS)


I I I I


University of Iowa
for Iowa Natural Resources
Council (1976)


I I I I


1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995
Year


2


0.84 bgd





WRC (1975)
year 2000 = 155% of
year 1970 (0.37 bgd)


000


Figure 15. Iowa Water Withdrawals and Consumptive Use
(Actual 1950 -1975, Projected 1975 2000)


most of which will be used in Iowa's western areas. 3,5/


Water Problems


Iowa experiences widespread point source pollution of surface waters in

the lower half of the State and along its eastern border. Municipal and indus-

trial wastes are important contributors to this problem. Along the northeastern

boundary, noopoint source pollution is also a problem. Eutrophication is evident

throughout a sizable portion of Iowa.

Ground water pollution exists in the southcentral and southeastern parts of

the State. Flooding, drinking water quality, and erosion and sedimentation are

also important issues.


Analysis


According the the University of Iowa's Institute for Economic Research

(IER), water intake will increase at 4.63 percent per year from 1975 to 2000.

If this forecast is borne out, an eight-fold increase will be experienced

during that period. It is considered, however, that inaccuracies in assumed

water use coefficients will result in this projection being on the high side.3/

Still, the large increases projected suggest that the State will have to care-

fully plan for future water commitments.

The three major water using sectors--electric utilities, manufacturing and

agriculture--are not forecast to change in rank of quantity required over the

1975-2020 projection period. These three sectors accounted for about 92 percent

of the total water intake requirements in 1975 and are projected to account for

about 98.0 percent of the total withdrawal requirements in 2020. Clearly, what

takes place in the electric utility sector will profoundly affect the water use

in Iowa.


I I I I I


21








84



According to IER, the electric utilities sector presents difficult problems

in projecting water use because of the wide range in estimates of water use

per kWh. They reported that water intake ranged from 36.3 to 208.3 gallons per

kWh while theoretical values for the cooling requirement should be in the range

of 30-60 gallons per kWh. 3/ For 1967 it was estimated that water use was 51.65

gallons per kWh. It was also noted that water use projections were further com-

plicated by the uncertainty of availability of energy fuels and the impact of en-

vironmental controls.

In 1975 about 63 percent of Iowa's electric generating plants used once-

through cooling systems. It was concluded that a reasonable assumption for pro-

jecting water use by the electric utility sector was to make water use projec-

tions on the basis that new plants brought on-stream would use cooling towers.

Such a shift would significantly change the amount of intake water required but

the actual impact is clouded by incomplete data on the rate at which new genera-

ting capacity with cooling towers will be added and the extent to which existing

systems will be converted to cooling towers. According to the National Coal As-

sociation, eight new plants are to be on line by 1988.

Iowa's projections of water withdrawals and consumptive use are both con-

siderably higher than the national trends of the WRC or NWC would suggest. This

disparity seems to be due mainly to the large projected growth rate in the steam

electric sector. It is clear that any major shift in cooling practices would sub-

stantially alter the Iowa forecast and thus it should be considered a rough

guideline at best. This was recognized by IER at the time the forecast was made.

The withdrawal of 11.7 bgd indicated for the year 2000 is therefore likely to be


closer to an upper limit than a "most probable" future level.

References


1. USDC, 1979.

l2 Iowa National Resources Council. State Water Plan Studies. Iowa City, Iowa.
1974-1975.

3. Barnard, R. and Dent, W.T. Projections of Population. Employment Income
and Water Use for Iowa River Basins, 1975-2000. The Institute for Economic
Research. University of Iowa. Iowa City, Iowa. May, 1979.

4. Butterfield, B.C. and Dougal, M.D. Water Needs for Electrical Energy Pro-
duction in Iowa. Engineering Research Institute. Iowa State University.
Ames, Iowa. September 1, 1975.

5. Hallberg, G.R. Irrigation in Iowa. Iowa Geological Survey Technical
Information Service: Number 5. Iowa City, Iowa. 1976.

6. U.S. Water Resources Council. The Nation's Water Resources 1975-2000.
Washington, D.C., U.S. Gov't. Print. Off., December 1978.



Kansas


Introduction


The state of Kansas is comprised of 81,787 square miles and 2,313,000

people (1980 estimate). 1,2/ The "Sun Flower" State which lies at the center

of the country, is surrounded by Nebraska, Missouri, Oklahoma and Colorado and

it is part of the Missouri and Arkansas White Red Regions. Kansas is the

leading wheat producer of the United States and is considered by many to be the

bread basket of the world. 3/


Projected Trends


In 1965 water withdrawals in Kansas totalled 2.94 bgd based on the findings

of the Kansas Water Resources Board. 4/ Of this amount, agriculture utilized


r













Projection Based on
75% of Kansas Water
Resources Board
Historic Data (USGS) Projection of Irrigation
Hisori-Daa-- SGS--,Water Use





Note: USGS showed irrigation consumptive
use of about 75% in 1970 and 1975


I I I I I I I I j
,O 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 20C
Year

Kansas Water Resources
Board Projections
(1972)


11.1bgd b



Historic Data (USGS) MatanMung
(Freshwater) ii





SI Irrigation
^ ...................


1950 1955


7.1 bgd




)--WRC (1975)
year 2000 = 155% of
year 1970 (4 bgd)


-- NWC (mid-projection)
year 2000 = 314% of
year 1970 (12 bgd)
(All water)








>--WRC (1975) year
2000 = 103% of
year 1970(4 bgd)
(Freshwater)


1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year


Figure 16. Kansas Water Withdrawals and Consumptive Use
(Actual 1950 1975, Projected 1975 2000)


bot 2 bgd. By the year 2000, it is projected that agricultural interests will

se 9.56 bgd of a total of about 11.1 bgd, or upwards of 85 percent of all water

withdrawn (Figure 16). Mining, manufacturing and utilities are forecast to use 9

percent; livestock 2 percent; and the remainder is allocated to urban or rural

domestic users. 4/

In 1965, mining used 18 percent fresh water and nearly 90 percent saline

water for secondary recovery. 4/ In that same year, 32 operating steam electric

plants were responsible for producing more than 200,000 kWh of electrical energy.

Eighty-seven percent of these plants used at least partial recirculation. The

Kansas Water Resources Board estimated in its 1972 report that by 1980:

Existing flow-through and partial recirculating systems
will attain 50 percent recirculation...All new instal-
lations will have cooling towers or ponds. Size of instal-
lations will be limited to 1600 mW. By 2000 and 2020....
Flow through plants will be phased out on the Missouri and
Kansas Rivers. All other plants will have cooling towers or
ponds. Size of installations will be limited to 400 Mw in
2000 and 6,000 mW in 2020. 4/

Nuclear facilities used more water for electrical generation than fossil

fuel plants in 1980. By 2020, however, fossil fuel plants are projected to de-

mand the most water. The 2020 water requirements are, however, forecast to be

significantly lower than those of 1980. 4/

he rural farm unit water requirement, according to the Kansas Water Re-

sources Board was "....projected to increase to 80 percent of the urban per

capital water requirement by 1980 and to converge on the urban per capital water

requirement by the year 2000. 4/


Water Problems


Kansas suffers from ground water overdrafting; occasional floods, particu-

larly in the northwest where this conditions endangers agriculture and other de-

















P'w 63-iic n _


~I















II:



Ii i;


FFPO








88



velopments; nonuniform precipitation which poses problems in regulating crop

output; eutrophication; and ground water pollution in the northwest and south-

west regions. 5/ Pollution from minerals and other dissolved solids is also

evident and in the southwest sector of the State, drinking water quality is

also a problem. 6/ The State has an inadequate surface water supply, with 70

percent of the supply being depleted during a dry year for most of the State.6/



Analysis


The Kansas Water Board states that the most significant use of water in

the future will continue to be for the irrigation of crops. 4/ In 1965 this

sector accounted for about 68 percent of all water used. In the year 2000, it

is projected that approximately 86 percent of all water use will be for crop ir-

rigation. Of even more significance is the fact that total irrigation withdrawals

are projected to increase almost five-fold from 1965 to 2000. Industry is

expected to account for about 9 percent of the year 2000 withdrawals and munici-

palities and rural water users the remainder. Although the demand for electrical

energy is expected to increase twenty-five fold between 1965 and 2020, it is pro-

jected that water requirements will actually decrease. This is due to expected

technological changes and anticipated stricter enforcement of State water qual-

ity standards. 4/

The year 2000 figure of 4 bgd for water withdrawals arrived at by applying

WRC's national trend to historic Kansas data is much less than the 11.1 bgd pro-

jected by the State. This is not surprising since the WRC trend does not account

for the large increase in irrigated acreage. The NWC trend figure of 12 bgd is

more indicative of the nature of growth expected for Kansas and it is in close

agreement with the State's forecast. Using the Series II-C population growth


89



rate (high), a projection of water use in 2000 would be 6.8 bgd. This is still

short of the Kansas estimate but it reflects only population growth as a para-

meter and the influence of expanded agricultural output is not incorporated.

This figure might, however, be a reasonable lower limit on growth. Of particular

ipportance to Kansas is the consumptive use projection. While the 7.1 bgd level

for the year 2000 estimated using the 1975 USGS ratio of consumptive use to total

irrigation withdrawals might be somewhat high, it points out the importance of

WRC's identification of Kansas as a State with increasing surface water supply

problems. On a Statewide basis, the future of irrigation development is the one

significant factor which must be addressed if water management programs to ease

State or regional water shortages are to be devised.

References


1. BLM, 1976.

2. USDC, 1979.

3. Encyclopedia Britannica. Volume 13. "Kansas". Chicago 1972.

4. Kansas Water Resources Board. The State of Kansas. State Water Plan Studies.
Part B. Kansas Long-Range Water Requirements. Topeka, Kansas. 1972.

5. Communication from the Office of Water Research and Technology. USDI.

6. U.S. Water Resources Council. The Nation's Water Resources 1975-2000. U.S.
Gov't. Print. Off. Washington, D.C. December 1978.


Kentucky



Introduction


An estimated 3,500,000 people live in the sprawling bluegrass State of

Kentucky. 1/ Lying predominantly in the Ohio River Basin Region, the State


















&.







90


measures 39,650 square miles 2/ and averages 46 inches of precipitation annually.3/

Projected Trends

In 1965, municipal water withdrawals totaled 175 mgd; farming 112 mgd; and
industry 330 mgd. 3/ The largest consumptive user of water was agriculture which
consumed one-half of the water withdrawn. Municipal uses consumed one tenth of
their withdrawals and industry less than six percent. Steam electric power re-
turned 99 percent of the water it used. 3/ Estimates of rural water use, in-
cluding irrigation, were made in 1965 for the years 1975 and 2000. The pro-
jected levels were 195 mgd and 284 mgd respectively. 3/
In 1975, Kentucky public water withdrawals reached 381.044 mgd according to
the State's Division of Water Resources. By 2020 these withdrawals are estimat-
ed to reach 617.514 mgd. Electrical generation consumed 40 mgd in 1975 and this
is expected to more than double by 2000, reaching 99 mgd. 4/ Historic with-
drawals are shown on Figure 17.
Although projections of total water withdrawals to the year 2000 were not
available, projections were made by the Kentucky Division of Water Resources of
water use in the public sector and of consumptive use for electrical generation.
These are given in Tables III-8 and 111-9. 4/


1.0 r


Historic Data (USGS)


I I I


1960 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year


Historic Data (USGS)
(Freshwater)


0



-


/0


I I


I I


I-- NWC (mid-projection)
year 2000 = 314% of
year 1970 (14.1 bgd)
(All water)








)---WRC (1975) year
2000= 103% of
year 1970 (4.6 bgd)
(Freshwater)


1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2
Year


Figure 17. Kentucky Water Withdrawals and Consumptive Use
(Actual 1950 1975, Projected 1975- 2000)


(-WRC (1975)
.-r.0-- ---0 O. year 2000 = 155% of
year 1970 (0.28 bgd)

I I I I I


' I


!










92














0 or oo
o 00 00 0
O 0 in 0 0


-s-en in
in" ini n-wi ooo n in r-i
en \oi 04 in nMi- 0 *
*nnn n-inen- -too ;tmvfla


1-4




n- -< r in
e -4in eon n-. i'- s-4





fn-04-in-5 nv'^^
c'tmrm mootNm-d
.On-0n- 4n-0ir
0-eioen-s -









n-itn..o-s1SN c-I^
Nininn-ie n
en in en inciin n-en
04 c\n- -04 n 0
en 040 i\On i n nn
--s-s- V~l\D-44


SN inn~- i ni --
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nP- eOmn 0 i
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i r in in n in a-
innr- in ^-in n- n- -s. n-a

-oO-------o-I
04i -4 n- n'o< -< Oin -
-4 nM 0400 n- -44i





0 *
'0 0 a.
>4 -B '4 0 W4
W U- 0ie 0 Wo c
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W) W 0 W

M 0 0 o b4
50440t0 Bl 00
.-40 $4 44,. 0-3SS- 44


r


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ess
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0 0 0-0
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:i)t i to(S
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U (
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m.m
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.- 0 (U.0
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0f > r-4 >4
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(U .










0 $4 0 '-4

,.4 004
t0 $4-U
3 m e o













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04-~iB












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oa 3












00 $4-1 (

3-44i 0- -
$400.< >-
in 0) 44
n- 0.44i
gg< n ,~
"e)Q ^


TABLE III-9


KENTUCKY ESTIMATED WATER CONSUMPTION FOR ELECTRICAL GENERATION


ESTIMATED WATER CONSUMPTION, MGD
RIVER BASIN 1975 2000


Big Sandy 7 14
Cumberland 1 1
Green 19 24
Kentucky 1 29
Licking 0 2 0
Lower Ohio 4 (45) 14 (248)
Middle Ohio 8 (26) 17 (285)
Mississippi 0 0
Tennessee 0 0



STATE TOTAL 40 99



1. From: Ohio River Basin Subregional Plans.


2. Figures in parentheses show totals for the subregion which includes the
North side of the Ohio River and minor tributaries.



The relative importance of water in the various sectors was discussed by the


Kentucky Division of Water Resources in its October, 1979 letter. The following


comments are appropriate: 4/

1. Projections of self-withdrawn industrial water use are not available.
2. Agricultural water is largely self-supplied from wells and farm ponds
and irrigation use is insignificant when compared to the western states.
3. Water use for energy production and conversion is important...Water for
coal conversion will likely increase dramatically but there is little
information on how many such plants will be constructed, where they will
be located and how much water they will withdraw and consume.



Water Problems




Kentucky suffers from extensive point source surface water pollution. This

is partially attributable to municipal and industrial wastes, nutrients, heavy


- n







94



metals and coliform bacteria. 5/ Non-point pollution generated by agricultural

chemicals and mine drainage is also a problem. Eutrophication and ground water

pollution are other water quality issues of concern. Flooding, erosion, sedimen-

tation and wet soils and drainage problems are common and widespread.


Analysis


Bureau of Census population projections to the year 2000 indicate that

Kentucky might experience an increase in population of about 20 percent by 2000.

Projected increases in water withdrawals in the public sector by the Kentucky

Division of Water Resources indicate a growth of about 35 percent. Using these

two rates of growth as indicators, total water withdrawals in 2000 would be 3.5

and 3.9 bgd respectively. These estimates are close to, but less than, the WRC

national trend would suggest. All three figures could, however, approximate a

lower limit of growth in water use especially if new steam electric facilities

do not use once-through cooling. The degree to which this will occur is unknown,

but considering the relatively high level of availability of surface water

supplies, it would appear unlikely that a total move to cooling towers or

other similar devices will occur by 2000. The NWC trend value of 14.1 bgd is

probably high for the year 2000 but it could be a possible upper limit. The

fact that the National Coal Association indicates a considerable expansion of

steam electric facilities (19 new plants to be on line by 1988) suggests that

such a level might be reached.

Consumptive use was estimated at 0.18 bgd in 1975. The WRC national trend

suggests that this could rise to 0.28 bgd in 2000. Using the Kentucky estimate

for consumptive use by steam electric facilities in the year 2000 of 99 mgd


in other sectors, a projected figure for consumptive use in 2000 would be about

..4, bgd.
References



1., USDC, 1979.

2. BLM, 1976

3. Department of Natural Resources. Kentucky Water Resources 1965. Frankfort,
Kentucky. 1965.

4. Letter from David Rosenbaum, Department of Natural Resources and Snviron-
mental Protection. Frankfort, Kentucky. October 19, 1979.

5. U.S. Water Resources Council. The Nation's Water Resources 1975-2000.
U.S. Gov't. Print. Off., Washington, D.C. December 1978.


Louisiana

Introduction


Louisiana lies predominately in the Lower Mississippi Region. The State en-

qpasses an area of 44,930 square miles and has an estimated 1980 population of

3!,,000 people. 1,2/ It is generally a water-rich State with the Mississippi

RlU%, being the primary source of surface water. The State also benefits from an

abiudance of fresh water provided by aquifers.


Projected Trends


In 1975 Lousiana ground water use was distributed as follows: municipal 201

agd; agriculture 858 mgd; industrial 473 mgd; and thermoelectric 39 mgd. By 2000

these figures are expected to be 315 mgd for municipal uses; 1,481 mgd for agri-

u"tural needs; 1,192 mgd in the industrial sphere; and 145 mgd in thermoelectric


FV








96



power generation needs. 3/

1975 surface water requirements for the same categories were: municipal use

300 mgd; agriculture 1,137 mgd; industries 3,624 mgd; and thermoelectric uses

5,452 mgd. In the year 2000, municipalities are expected to use 447 mgd; agri-

culture 2,472 mgd; industries 9,256 mgd; and thermoelectric power 20,437 mgd of

surface water. 3/

In effect this shows an increase from 501 mgd in 1975 to 762 mgd in 2000

in municipal uses; 1,995 mgd in 1975 to 3,953 mgd in 2000 in the agriculture

sector; 4,097 mgd in 1975 to 10,448 mgd in 2000 for industries; and 5,491 mgd

in 1975 to 20,582 mgd in 2000 for thermoelectric uses.

The Louisiana Office of Public Works (OPW) estimated that by 2000 surface

face water requirements will triple. 3/ The historic and projected trends are

shown of Figure 18.


Water Problems


Flooding and ground water depletion are among the State's water problems. 4/

Water pollution is a nuisance as well. Discharges of raw or inadequately treated

wastes are affecting water quality in some reaches of the Mississippi River and

other bodies of water. Most anticipated water supply problems are related to re-

source distribution, rather than overall availability. Because most of the flood-

prone lands in Louisiana are used for agricultural purposes, flooding hampers the

capability to produce essential foods and fibers. 3/


Analysis


According to OPW, Lousiana has adequate water resources to support sub-

stantial growth in population and the economy. 3/ It is noted, however, that


Historic Data (USGS)










I I


1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995
Year


*NWC (mid prioeclion)
yeau 2000 : 314'. of
yeal 1970 128 bgdl
(All walell


I- WRC (1975) yeal
2000= 103% of
year 1970 (9.3 bgd)
(Freshwater)

Municipal


Figure 18. Louisiana Water Withdrawals and Consumptive Use
(Actual 1950 1975, Projected 1975 2000)


0~~- ___0- WRC (1975)
year 2000 = 155% of
year 1970 (3.4 bgd)


2000


- --- --- -


' I I z








98



this growth will place increasing demands on available water resources, pri-

marily with regard to supplies for cities, industries, thermoelectric power

generation, irrigation, and instream and other flow uses. For example, demands

for water-based recreation are increasing, and in some areas this demand is ex-

pected to exceed available supplies of suitable water. 3/

OPW states that total surface water requirements for Louisiana are expected

to triple by the year 2000. The largest increase will be in the thermoelectric

category, which accounted for 52 percent of total 1975 use and is projected to

account for 63 percent of all withdrawals by 2000. The next largest category of

use is industrial, which accounted for about 34 percent of 1975 use and is ex-

pected to comprise 28 percent of 2000 use. Smaller absolute increases are ex-

pected in the agricultural and municipal categories, which accounted for only

11 percent and three percent respectively, of total use in 1975. By 2000, these

categories are forecast to account for eight percent and one percent, respec-

tively, of total use. 3/

OPW projects that the total ground water requirement for the State will in-

crease by 1,562 mgd, or 99 percent---from 1,571 mgd in 1975 to 3,133 mgd by 2000.

During this period, municipal requirements are projected to increase 57 percent;

agricultural 73 percent; industrial 152 percent; and thermoelectric 272 per-

cent. 3/

The State's projected growth in the agricultural and industrial sectors

alone suggests that the WRC national trend projection is too low, even as a

lower limit. On the other hand, the trend indicated by NWC's mid-projection na-

tional estimate appears reasonable for Louisiana, particularly because of the

large projected increases in the power cooling sector. Again, any great shift

away from once-through cooling could significantly alter future water with-


r


drawals. The fact that the majority of thermoelectric facilities are located

along the Mississippi River suggests that the once-through cooling mode will

remain attractive for some time to come unless environmental controls dictate

otherwise.
References


1, USDC, 1979.

2. BLM, 1976.

3, Department of Transportation and Development. Office of Public Works.
Louisana's Water Resources. Baton Rouge, Louisiana. February 1978.

4. U.S. Water Resources Council. The Nation's Water Resources 1975-2000.
U.S. Gov't. Print. Off., Washington, D.C. December 1978.


Maine

Introduction


Maine has the largest land mass of the New England States: 30,920 square

miles. 1/ It is the third most populous State in New England, having an es-

timated 1980 population slightly in excess of one million. 2/ The average

annual precipitation is about 42 inches and it is reported that the supply of

water available will meet the State's needs for consumptive uses to the year

2020 and well beyond. 3/



Projected Trends


The bulk of the water used in Maine in 1975 was for industrial (about 36

percent) and steam electric cooling (about 50 percent) purposes. Total with-

drawals amounted to 1,200 mgd; 590 mgd of fresh water and 610 mgd of saline

water (Figure 19). Almost all of the saline water use was for power cooling.













0.4


0.3


S0.2
E

S0.1


Historic Data (USGS)
(Freshwater)









\ ,


_______ 0-0 -- WRC (1975)
year 2000 = 155% of
S I I year 1970 (0.1 bgd)
75 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
ar


)-- NWC (mid-projection)
year 2000 = 314% of
year 1970 (2.42 bgd)
(All water)


s -O--l.--O--o- --WRC (1975) year
Frn Indusi',,., 2000 = 103% of
",,I year 1970 (0.63 bgd)
77 "'--'. I I I I(Freshwater)
0 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year









Figure 19. Maine Water Withdrawals and Consumptive Use
(Actual 1950 1975, Projected 1975 2000)


Historic Data (USGS)







I I I I I
50 1955 1960 1965 1970 19
Ye


101



Consumptive use in 1975 amounted to a scant 41 mgd. Projections to the year

2000 were not available.
Water Problems


Water quality has been Maine's foremost problem although, according to the

State Planning Office, the pollution control program is beginning to move rapidly

and is expected to have noticeable impact in a few years. 3/ The pulp and paper

companies have been a major source of surface water pollution. Eutrophication is

widespread in Maine as are ground water quality problems. 4/ Flooding and ero-

sion are other issues of concern. It has also been noted that nonpoint sources

of pollution-soil erosion, fertilizer and other agricultural runoff, urban storm-

water runoff and road salting--are more important contributors to water quality

degradation than originally anticipated.


Analysis


The water supply in Maine is significant and as a result, the State Planning

Office has commented that it would not be unreasonable to expect that the State

might be called upon to export some of its abundant water resources to help meet

the needs of nearby water-short basins. 3/

It is apparent that the rate of change in water use in Maine will be closely

allied with industrial growth or decline and increases in the number of steam

Mlectric generating facilities. Maine's expansive coastline suggests that once-

through cooling using saline water may continue to be attractive for some time

to come. Overall water withdrawals in the future could thus be significantly

greater than those of the present. Conservative estimates place Maine's power

needs by the year 2000 at about triple the 1975 level. 3/ A small number of

steam electric plants of large capacity are anticipated at coastal sites. The


3.0 r-


2.0





S1.0






195


50


10 0








102



National Coal Association has reported that one 600 Mw plant is scheduled for

completion by 1987.

Using high and low population projections of the Bureau of Census, total

water withdrawals in the year 2000 might be expected to range from about 1.4

to 1.6 bgd. These figures are about midway between those obtained using the

WRC and NWC national trends (0.63 and 2.42 bgd respectively). It must be kept

in mind, however, that the WRC figure is for fresh water only. If the projected

rates of growth in population are applied to the 1975 level of fresh water with-

drawals, then year 2000 figures would range from about 0.71 to 0.79 bgd. These

are comparable with the WRC trend although they are slightly higher and possibly

somewhat closer to conditions that might be expected. On the other hand, the

NWC trend includes saline water and is more consistent with the steam electric

cooling future for Maine. As a result, it might be considered a reasonable es-

timate of the total quantity of water withdrawn in 2000. Trends in cooling prac-

tices which move away from flow-through cooling could modify this conclusion.



References



1. BLM, 1976

2. USDC, 1979

3. Maine State Planning Office and New England River Basins Commission.
Management of Water and Related Land Resources in the State of Maine.
Summary Report. Augusta, Maine. 1975.

4. U.S. Water Resources Council. The Nation's Water Resources 1975-2000.
U.S. Gov't. Print. Off., Washington, D.C. December 1978.


F-

103



ld


Introduction





The State of Maryland has a land mass of 9,891 square miles and an estimated

1980 population of 4,397,000 people. 1,2/ The mean annual precipitation is about

42 inches and, in general, the availability of water is good.


Projected Trends



In 1975, Maryland withdrew about 7.5 bgd, 1.5 bgd of fresh water and 6 bgd

of saline water. About 5.2 bgd of saline water (87 percent) was used for steam

electric cooling, while the remainder, 720 mgd, was used by industry. Approxi-

mately 75 percent of all water withdrawals were for power cooling (Figure 20).

Consumptive use was only 110 mgd in 1975.

While State projections of total water use to the year 2000 are not avail-

able, estimates for some sectors have been made. The Water Supply Section of

the Maryland Water Resources Administration has projected fresh water demands

for the State in 1980 and 2010. 3/ These are show in Table III-10.

The domestic water use sector data shown in Table III-10 were from a state-

wide analysis of county water supply and demand projections. The projections for

steam electric use are incomplete because they do not consider withdrawals of

brackish water. The projections prepared by the Federal Power Commission for

the National Water Assesment were not used by Maryland because they were con-

sidered to be somewhat unreliable, consequently the State is preparing a more

comprehensive survey of future water requirements for power cooling. The data












0.5 r-


Historic Data (USGS)

0.3 -


0.2 -


0.1 -


I I I


1955 1960 1965 1970 19
Ye


14 -


Historic Data (USGS)
(Freshwater)


Based on Estimated
Increase of About 1.8
Over 1970 from Maryland
Water Resources
Administration Figures
(1978) 0.25bgd
WRC (1975)
year 2000 = 155% of
year 1970 (0.22 bgd)



I I I I
75 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
ar
)<- NWC (mid-projection)
year 2000 = 314% of
0 year 1970 (16.2 bgd)
/ (All water)


O0


6 -


4 _


2 Freshwater Estime 2.2 bhd
Flhamte Maryland Water Re s WRC (1975) year
SAdminisration (1978) 2000 = 103% of
//// year 1970 (1.7 bgd)
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 (Freshwater)
Year


Figure 20. Maryland Water Withdrawals and Consumptive Use
(Actual 1950 1975, Projected 1975 2000)


105



used to develop projections of water use for irrigation and livestock were de-

rived from a 1959 irrigation Survey conducted by the University of Maryland. 3/

The Water Supply Section noted that because of the status of the State's

water withdrawal records and projections, differences from the information pub-

lished by USGS and WRC could be expected. These differences point out the im-

pact of the wide range of assumed economic and demographic conditions that were

used by the various agencies.



Table III-10

Projected (Fresh Water) Withdrawals in Maryland For 1980 and 2010 (mgd) 3/


Sectors

Industry (Manufacturing
and Mining)

Household, Commercial,
Municipal (Domestic/Central
and Domestic/Rural)

Agriculture (Irrigation and
livestock)

Steam Electric


TOTALS


1980
Withdrawals


2010
Withdrawals


536.8



625.0


151.2

365.0


1,678.


769.4



950.0


236.2

460.0


2,415.6


Water Problems


Maryland experiences a wide range of water problems. Point source pollution

is extensive in the western part of the State and nonpoint source pollution is

statewide. Drinking water quality and eutrophication are other issues which are


I /1












catching attention. Erosion and sedimentation are major problems in all parts

of the State.

Analysis


As Table III-10 indicates, increases in water use by all sectors are ex-

pected by the year 2010. Figure 20 shows that Maryland's projected fresh water

withdrawal for 2000 is 2.2 bgd. The WRC trend figure is 1.7 bgd and an estimate

for 2000 obtained by using a forecast rate of population increase is about 1.9

bgd. All of these estimates are close and it would appear that a lower limit of

fresh water use in 2000 might well be from 2.0 to 3.0 bgd. If a strict popula-

tion growth rate is applied to the 1975 level of combined fresh and saline water

use, then a year 2000 estimate would be about 9.5 bgd. This does not adequately

account for growth in the steam electric sector but it is still a useful indi-

cation of what total withdrawals might be in 2000, particularly if less flow-

through cooling is used. The National Coal Association reports that 5 new

thermoelectric plants will be on line in Maryland by 1988. This suggests that

water use in this sector will continue to increase and that the use of saline

water for once-through cooling will be an important factor. The trend obtained

by using the NWC national growth rate for its mid-projection indicates a total

water withdrawal in 2000 of about 16 bgd. This level could be obtained if once-

through cooling is used for most new facilities. The year 2000 figure for con-

sumptive use shown in Figure 20 was obtained by applying Maryland's projected

growth rate for consumptive use to the recorded historic data. The WRC trend

value of 0.22 bgd is very close to this.


References

1. BLM, 1976.

2. USDC, 1979.


M.


3. Water Resources Administration. State of Maryland. Schultz, D.A.
letter dated April 7, 1978.

4. U.S. Water Resources Council. The Nation's Water Resources 1975-2000,
Washington, D.C., U.S. Gov't. Print. Off., Dec. 1978.


Massachusetts


Introduction


The State of Massachusetts has an estimated 1980 population of 5,968,000

spread over 7,826 square miles. 1,2/


Projected Trends


A total of 8,800 mgd were withdrawn by Massachusetts in 1975 (Figure 21).

This included: 7,280 mgd for thermoelectric power generation; 33 mgd for ir-

rigation (11 mgd of ground water and 22 mgd of surface water); 680 mgd for self-

supplied industrial use; and 780 mgd for public water supplies. Consumptive use

in 1975 amounted to about 110 mgd. Only 25 percent of all water withdrawn in

1975 was fresh. The 6,500 mgd of saline withdrawn was used almost entirely for

steam electric cooling.

The State of Massachusetts did not have any water use projections to the

year 2000 but did supply information from which the estimate shown on Figure 21

was made. 3/ It was recommended that the USGS 1975 data be projected forward

using the following assumptions:

1. That the relative demand exerted by the various categories of
uses will remain about the same through the year 2000.

2. That the effect of a newly adopted water conservation policy would
be to halt the historical increase in gallons per capital per day
consumed.

3. That increases will be directly related to increases in popula-
tion only.


r
















Historic Data (USGS)


0.1 --


I I I I


I I I I


)-WRC (1975)
year 2000 =155% of
year 1970 (2.15 bgd)


i I I I I 1 ,
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year


Historic Data (USGS)
(Freshwater)


Projections Based on
Data Provided by
Massachusetts Division
of Water Resources
(1978)


)- NWC (mid-projection)
year 2000 = 314% of
year 1970 (13.3 bgd)
(All water)
10.3 bgd


Note: In 1975 almost all of saline water was
8 used for thermoelectric cooling


6


4
pe@ + Saline

2 vt,-WRC (1975) year
saFre r H2000 103% of
year 1970 (2.1 bgd)
S(Freshwater)
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year


Figure 21. Massachusetts Water Withdrawals and Consumptive Use
(Actual 1950 1975, Projected 1975 2000)


r


4. That the percentage factors to be used to forecast increases
in water consumption be based on population projections, as
follows:

State Census 1975 5.8 million Base Year
State Projection 1990 6.4 million + 10% of base year
State Projection 2000 6.7 million + 17.2% of base year

It is possible that the projection made does not completely account for

increases in saline water use for power cooling. In this case it would likely

be low. However, the National Coal Association indicates only one new power

plant for the State by 1988 and thus the growth in that sector might not be ex-

tensive. Shifts to cooling towers or cooling ponds could also make a significant

difference.


Water Problems


Massachusetts suffers from salt water intrusion around the Cape Cod area;

point and nonpoint source surface water pollution in various parts of the State;

significant eutrophication; some ground water pollution; and industrial chemical

pollution in the northeast corner of the State. 4/ Flooding is also a major

problem in the east-central portion of the State. Erosion and sedimentation

occur around the Cape Cod area.


Analysis


Massachusetts has an abundant supply of water although it is not always

distributed seasonally or geographically in the most desirable manner. The

average annual precipitation is about 43 inches which translates to about 15

bgd.5/ Using the Massachusetts guidelines, the year 2000 fresh water with-

drawal level would be about 2.5 bgd (Figure. 21). This is comparable with the

figure obtained by using the WRC national trend. The State's policy of greater









110



conservation in water use suggests that this would be expected. In any event,

the year 2000 fresh water withdrawal level is not likely to be much less than

these figures would indicate. The total water withdrawal is more questionable

because of the large quantities of saline water used and the potential for en-

vironmental controls to bring about shifts in cooling water practices. The 10.3

bgd projection based on a direct relationship with population growth or the NWC

national trend figure of 13.3 bgd could be reached by 2000 if large additional

quantities of saline water are used. The fresh water total for 2000 would,

however, be far below the average daily flow of 15 bgd.

Using population growth as the only measure of increase, a year 2000 con-

sumptive use of about 1.3 bgd would result. WRC's national trend applied to

the 1970 level of consumptive use gives a year 2000 figure of about 2.2 bgd.

Either one of these estimates appears to be reasonable.

References


1. USDC, 1979.

2. BLM, 1976.

3. State of Massachusetts. Division of Water Resources. Letter from
Charles F. Kennedy. March 9, 1978.

4. U.S. Water Resources Council. The Nation's Water Resources 1975-2000.
U.S. Gov't. Print. Off., Washington, D.C. December 1978.

5. Peterson, R.G. Water In Massachusetts. Massachusetts Audubon. Summer
1965.


Michigan

Introduction

Lying completely within and making up 43 percent of the Great Lakes

Region, Michigan is a State of 56,817 square miles and 9,433,000 people (1980


r


estimate).l,2,3 / The State has more than 11,000 lakes. 4/

Projected Trends


In 1975, 15 bgd of water were withdrawn excluding hydroelectric power use

(Figure 22). Thermoelectric cooling used 12 bgd but did not consume any signi-

ficant amount. Other self supplied industrial uses accounted for 1,900 mgd (in-

cluding 400 mgd of saline water). Public water supplies constituted about

1,200 mgd and other sectors accounted for the small remainder. Power cooling

uses amounted to about 80 percent of all water withdrawn and are certain to be

the most important factor to be dealt with in terms of future levels of State

water use. The National Coal Association noted that 11 new power plants were

scheduled for operation by 1988. Consumptive use was about 310 mgd in 1975 and,

in view of the State's relatively ample water resources, this is not particularly

significant.

Water Problems


In Michigan's upper peninsula, surface and ground water quality problems

stem from a variety of factors including municipal and industrial wastes, ship

wastes and dredged materials. 5/ Southwest Michigan also suffers from water

quality problems and parts of the St. Joseph River Basin are polluted from

point and non-point sources alike. This is also true of the Saginaw River Basin.

Another problem area is the Kalamazoo-Black-Macatawa-Paw Paw Region lying

in the southwest. Here surface water quality has been harmed by agricultural

runoff and by industrial and municipal wastes. The ground water quality has

also been affected by a high mineral content in Ottawa County. 5/

The Grand River Basin in southwest Michigan is characterized by a limited















0.8 -


0.4


0.2


40 .-


30 1


I I


1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975
Year


oO O )- WRC (1975)
year 2000 = 155% of
-.0"" year 1970 (0.5 bgd)




I I I I
75 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
e -NWC (mid-projection)
year 2000 = 314% of
0 year 1970 (41 bgd)
(All water)










*0


/ I I I I"


) WRC (1975) year
2000 = 103% of
year 1970 (13.5 bgd)
(Freshwater)


1990 1995 2000


Figure 22. Michigan Water Withdrawals and Consumptive Use
(Actual 1950 1975, Projected 1975 2000)


113



supply of water which has resulted in water quality and overuse problems. 1/

flooding is also of concern in several parts of the State.

Analysis


State water use projections to the year 2000 were not available. An appli-

cation of the upper and lower population growth rates projected for Michigan

by the Bureau of the Census yields year 2000 levels of total withdrawal of 17.9

and 16.5 bgd, respectively. These estimates are higher than the WRC trend would

suggest (13.5 bgd) but may be considered reasonable estimates if power cooling

withdrawals are minimized through conversion away from flow-through cooling.

The availability of Great Lakes waters suggests, however, that this assumption

might be conservative. The NWC trend figure of 41 bgd could serve as an approxi-

mate upper limit of growth, especially if once-through cooling is widely employed

for new steam electric facilities. As in the case of many other States, the

future level of electric power generating facilities and the form of their cool-

ing component will strongly influence developing water use trends.


References


1. SRF-18-1978.

2. BLM, 1976.

3. USDC, 1979.

4. U.S. Department of Interior. U.S. Geological Survey. Compilation of Data
for Michigan Lakes. Miller, J.B. and Thompson, T. Lansing, Michigan.
June 1970.

5. U.S. Water Resources Council. The Nation's Water Resources 1975-2000.
U.S. Gov't. Print. Off., Washington, D.C. December 1978.


19015 16 95 901


1960 1965 1970 19
Ye


Historic Data (USGS)
(Freshwater)









- Thereat i
hemeecrc


1950 1955


I I


I I I I


1980 1985


---












Minnesota


Introduction


Minnesota has more than 15,000 glacial lakes. The largest is Red Lake,

measuring 451 square miles. The State has "one square mile of water for every

20 square miles of land." Three well-known drainage systems originate in

Minnesota: the Mississippi, being the largest; the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence; and

the Rainy and Red Rivers which flow into Hudson Bay. 1/

The State produces the most oats in the nation and ranks second in the

production of hay. In addition, Minnesota is a large producer of corn, soy-

beans and flaxseed. Manufacturing is slowly emerging as the main economic

base but the State is still predominantly geared towards agriculture. The State

had an estimated population of 4,040,000 people in 1980 distributed over 79,289

square miles. 2,3/


Projected Trends


The Minnesota State Planning Agency estimated that by 2020 water with-

drawals would increase 280 percent and consumption about 175 percent over 1960

levels. 4/ Breaking this down by sector, one finds that rural domestic usage

is expected to decrease from 116 mgd in 1960 to 105 mgd in 2000; public supplies

will go from 236 mgd in 1960 to 686 mgd in 2000; irrigation from 7 mgd in 1960

to 14 mgd in 2000; and self-supplied industry from 800 mgd to 1,613 mgd in 2000

(Table III-ll). Consumptive use figures in 2000 are estimated to be: public sup-

plies 68 mgd (up from 18 mgd in 1960); rural domestic use 97 mgd (as opposed to

106 mgd in 1960); irrigation 15 mgd in 2000 (up 8 mgd on the 1960 figure); and

self-supplied industry 59 mgd in 2000. 4/ Total year 2000 consumptive use is


115



estimated to be about 0.24 bgd exclusive of power cooling (Table III-11 and

Figure 23).
In 1975, total water withdrawals amounted to about 4 bgd. Of this amount,

2.8 bgd were used for power cooling (about 70 percent). By 2000 the power cool-

igg requirements may increase to about 9.7 bgd, comprising about 80 percent of

all water withdrawals. Consumptive use in 1975 was 270 mgd and according to the

Minnesota State Planning Agency, this will be about 0.24 bgd in 2000 for all sec-

tors except power cooling. Adding estimated consumptive losses due to cooling,

the total would be about 0.35 bgd.


Water Problems


Some ground water overdrafting occurs in the northeastern and southeastern

regions of the State. The southeast corner of the State also experiences some

salt-water intrusion problems. 5/ There is extensive surface water pollution

throughout major portions of Minnesota. Both non-point and point sources con-

tribute to this. In addition, pollution has also affected the ground water in

the north and south.

Many areas in the State are susceptible to or are experiencing drinking

water quality degradation. Flooding, erosion and sedimentation are also issues

of concern.


Analysis


Minnesota has an average annual precipitation of about 25 inches and an

average annual runoff of about 5 inches. In addition there are large reserves

of ground water. Overall, the State is adequately supplied with water for the

next 50 years but the distribution and timing of water supplies creates periodic

local problems. 4/








116



Table III-11

Summary of Projected Water Withdrawals (WD) and Consumption (CU)
Except for Thermoelectric and Hydroelectric Power Uses, 1980 to 2000,
Subdivided by Uses and River Basins 4/
(mgd)


1960 1980

WD CU WD CU


Great Lakes Basin

Public Supplies
Rural
Irrigation
Self-Supplied
Industrial

Subtotal


Upper Mississippi and

Missouri River Basins

Public Supplies
Rural
Irrigation
Self-Supplied
Industrial

Subtotal


Red-Rainy River Basin

Public Supplies
Rural
Irrigation
Self-Supported
Industrial

Subtotal


Total


457 20


2000

WD CU


31 7 52
4 4 5


760 33 800


483 28 795 44 857 51


201 12 393 41 606
80 73 72 66 65
6 6 7 7 12

256 9 500 15 695

543 100 972 129 1,379


12
33
1

87


18
34
1

101


133 34 154 37


1,159 162


53
60
13

21

147




4
32
2

3


183 41


1,921 210 2,419 239


Historic Data (USGS)







S I I I


0 1955 1960 1965 1970 19
Ye


14 r-


Vlinnesota State
ining Agency Data
(1970)



WRC (1975)
year 2000 = 155% of
year 1970 (0.51 bgd)


0.24 bgd


I I I I
'5 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
ar
Estimated From Minnesota
Planning Agency Data
(1970)


Historic Data (USGS)
(Freshwater)
8




Includes large
once-through
4 cooling water requirements


2

Thermoelectric


1980 1985 1990 1995 2000


1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975
Year


12.1 bgd

>-NWC (mid-projection)
year 2000 = 314% of
year 1970 (10.7 bgd)
(All water)







)-WRC (1975) year
2000= 103% of
year 1970 (3.5 bgd)
(Freshwater)


Figure 23. Minnesota Water Withdrawals and Consumptive Use
(Actual 1950 1975, Projected 1975 2000)


11
il













The major factor in the State's future water use picture is power cool-

ing. This has been the major water user and is projected to continue to occupy

the spotlight. Conversion away from once-through cooling to the use of cool-

ing towers or ponds could significantly alter the projections shown on Figure 23.

Minnesota's year 2000 estimate of about 12.1 bgd is comparable with the NWC trend

figure of about 10.7 bgd. The WRC trend estimate of 3.5 bgd seems useful as a

possible lower limit at best.


References


1. Encyclopedia Britannica. Volume 15, "Minnesota" Chicago. 1972.

2. USDC, 1979.

3. BLM, 1976.

4. State Planning Agency. Water Resources Coordinating Committee. Minnesota
Water and Related Land Resources. First Assessment. St. Paul, Minnesota.
June 1970.

5. U.S. Water Resources Council. The Nation's Water Resources 1975-2000.
U.S. Gov't. Print. Off., Washington, D.C. December 1978.


Mississippi


Introduction


Lying in the south central portion of the Nation, the "Magnolia" State is

comprised of five major drainage basins which are the Tombigbee, Pascagoula,

Pearl, Mississippi, and Yazoo. Cotton, broiler production and eggs are valuable

incomes. The State also produces oil and gas. 1/ Mississippi has an estimated

1980 population of 2,396,000 2/ scattered over some 47,296 square miles. 3/


119



Projected Trends


Water withdrawals, excluding hydroelectric power generation, were 2,100

md in 1975 (Figure 24). Thermoelectric power withdrew some 660 mgd and con-

sumed 17 mgd, self-supplied industrial uses totaled 510 mgd; irrigation accoun-

ted for 670 mgd of which 340 mgd were consumed; rural uses amounted to about

50 mgd; and public water supplies used 210 mgd. The total 1975 consumptive use

was reported as 530 mgd. Saline water constituted about 26 percent of all

water used in 1975 and all of this went for power cooling.

State projections to 2000 were not available but the expectation is that

water use for steam electric facilities will increase. The National Coal Assoc-

iation indicates that 8 new power plants will be on stream by 1988.


Water Problems


Parts of the State are affected by ground water overdrafting. Pollution

of surface and ground waters and eutrophication are also statewide problems. 5/

Drinking water quality appears to be threatened in the southwestern corner of

Mississipp. Flooding is a problem for about half of the State and erosion and

sedimentation are issues to be dealt with along the western border region.


Analysis


Mississippi is a well watered State having a mean annual precipitation of

about 53 inches. As such, no major water supply problems are expected by the

year 2000.

Using the Bureau of the Census Series II-C projections of population for

Mississippi, an estimated water withdrawal figure for the year 2000 of about

2.5 bgd would be obtained. This does not account for major increases in sectors














Historic Data (USGS)


I I


1.0





S0.5
5




195




7


6


5


4


S 3


2


1955 1960 1965 1970 1975
Year


I I I I


1975 1980 1985 1990
Year












/
O/





t.,. 0-0-0-0



I I I


)-WRC (1975)
year 2000 = 155% of
year 1970 (0.65 bgd)


1995 2000





NWC (mid-projection)
year 2000 = 314% of
0 year 1970 (6.6 bgd)
(All water)











- 0--( )-WRC (1975) year
2000 =103% of
year 1970 (1.6 bgd)
(Freshwater)
I


1980 1985 1990 1995 2000


Figure 24. Mississippi Water Withdrawals and Consumptive Use
(Actual 1950- 1975, Projected 1975 2000)


a-


121



gih as power cooling or irrigation and thus would appear to be only a guide to

Slower limit of growth. The year 2000 level of 1.6 bgd obtained by applying the

pC national trend seems low for a lower limit on fresh water while the NWC

trend projection of about 6.6 bgd is probably on the high side for total water

,thdrawals. The use of once-through cooling in the new thermoelectric plants

scheduled for development could, however, bring Mississippi's year 2000 with-

drawals close to that figure.


References


i. Encyclopedia Britannica. Volume 15. "Mississippi." Chicago. 1972.

2. USDC, 1979.

3. BLM, 1976

). U.S. Water Resources Council. The Nation's Water Resources 1975-2000.
U.S. Govt. Print. Off., Washington, D.C. December 1978.


Missouri


Introduction


Missouri, with a population of 4,882,000 people (1980 estimate), contains

640 square miles of inland water. 1,2/ The "Show Me" State is the nation's

largest lead and barite producer and ranks high in the production of lime and

fire clay as well. 2/


Projected Trends


The U.S. Geological Survey reported that total 1975 water withdrawals for

Missouri amounted to 4,100 mgd, excluding hydroelectric power generation (Figure

25). Of this total 3,000 mgd were used for power cooling which constituted about


0 1955 1960 1965 1970








Historic Data (USGS)
(Freshwater)










=



"lIPrrgaton1"
t


I I I I .


" I [ [








122









0 0.- WRC (1975)
_O--0- year 2000 = 155% of
year 1970 (0.49 bgd)


I I I I


I I I I I
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year


2
S) NWC (mid-projection)
year 2000 = 314% of
0 HistoricData(USGS) year 1970 (11 bgd)
Historic Data USGS (All water)
(Freshwater) O
8
8 A
6-
6 1978 Estimated by
,0 Missouri Department
Sof Natural Resources
4 -- O-0---0-O WRC (1975) year
2000= 103% of
2 year 1970 (3.5 bgd)
(Freshwater)
Thermoelectric

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year


Figure 25. Missouri Water Withdrawals and Consumptive Use
(Actual 1950 1975, Projected 1975 2000)


Historic Data (USGS)


r

123



about 73 percent of all water used. Additional expansion in this sector is fore-

cast. The National Coal Association reports that 8 new plants will be in opera-

tion before the end of 1988. Other water uses in 1975 were as follows: self-

supplied industry 240 mgd; irrigation 96 mgd; rural water use 210 mgd; and public

water supplies 610 mgd. The 1975 consumptive use was reported at 400 mgd. No

estimates of water use to the year 2000 were available although some estimates of

water use in 1978 were made by the Missouri Department of Natural Resources. 3/

Water Problems


A key water problem in Missouri is agricultural non-point pollution. 4/

Flooding of the Missouri and Mississippi Rivers is also of great concern. Some

saline water intrusion occurs in the north central region of the State and

there are also scattered areas of surface water pollution from point sources.

Several regions suffer from eutrophication and pollution of ground water

supplies. 4/ The drinking water supply throughout a major portion of the State

either faces pollution problems or has the potential to develop water quality

problems. 4/ Finally, erosion and sedimentation occur from the north through

the central area of the State and along Missouri's southeastern corridor. 4/


Analysis


By using population growth rates estimated to occur between 1975 and the

year 2000, a projection of year 2000 total water withdrawals would be about 4.7

bgd. This is somewhat higher than the estimate of 3.5 bgd obtained by using

the WRC national trend. It is also more likely to be representative of a lower

limit to growth. The NWC trend level of 11 bgd is not unreasonable if once-

through cooling is used in new power plants along the Missouri River. In general,


I I I I








124



the State has an abundant water supply and this should serve most regions well

until 2000.


References



1. USDC, 1979.

2. Encyclopedia Britannica. Volume 15. "Missouri." Chicago. 1972.

3. Missouri Department of Natural Resources. Letter from Charles P.
Michael. October 19, 1979.

4. U.S. Water Resources Council. The Nation's Water Resources 1975-2000.
U.S. Gov't. Print. Off., Washington, D.C. December 1978.


Montana


Introduction


Lying in the Rocky Mountains, possessing rich mineral deposits and 1,535

square miles of water, 1/ Montana is shared by both the Pacific Northwest and

Missouri Regions. The "Treasure" State has an estimated 1980 population of

766,000 people. 2/ Montana has two main rivers which contribute to an adequate

river system the Missouri and the Yellowstone. Agriculture and livestock are

the mainstay of the State's economy. Copper, manganese ore, coal, oil and

natural gas are among the more important mining resources. 1/


Projected Trends


Montana withdrew 12,000 mgd in 1975, based on USGS data with no reported

saline water use (Figure 26). The Montana Department of Natural Resources and

Conservation (DNRC) reported that more than 95 percent of water withdrawals

were utilized in agriculture. 3/ In 1970, municipal and industrial users with-

drew 1.1 percent of the total water, industry's share equalling 38 percent.


Montana High Estimate
Using Data From Montana
Department of Natural WRC (1975)
Historic Data (USGS) Resources (1978) 6.8d year 2000= 155% of
year 1970 (8.5 bgd)



Note: Increased consumptive
use predicted for
Montana basins was
added to 1970 figure


I ( I I I I I I I I
50 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year

SNWC (mid-projection)
year 2000 = 314% of
year 1970 (25 bgd)
(All water)


Historic Data (USGS)
(Freshwater)





4:

. . . . .
........... _.i
......................
.......................1
. . . . . . ..:i:: ::
. . . . . . ..ll:l- l~
. . . . . . ..t----


I I I I


"--WRC (1975) year
2000 = 103% of
year 1970 (8.3 bgd)
(Freshwater)


1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year


Figure 26. Montana Water Withdrawals and Consumptive Use
(Actual 1950 1975, Projected 1975 2000)








126



DNRC reported that in 1975 the State's water withdrawals were apportioned

as follows: irrigation 11.1 bgd; thermoelectric cooling 163 mgd; self-supplied

industry 153 mgd; public water supplies 133 mgd; livestock 34 mgd; and rural

domestic 20 mgd. Excluding irrigation, only 25 percent of total withdrawals

were consumed.



Water Problems


Non-point source pollution and saline seepage are key areas of concern in

the State. Montana does not appear to suffer from overdraft or eutrophication.



Analysis


Moncana's estimated consumptive use in 2000 is based on fairly moderate

increases ii -ater use, particularly in the agricultural sector. The 6.8 bgd

projected is less than WRC's national trend figure of 8.5 bgd would suggest and

that estimate 1- n the conservative side. Total withdrawal figures were not

available but by using the 1970 ratio of withdrawal to consumptive use (the

197. :-io -opears to be unrepresentative), a year 2000 estimate of about 10.1

bgd Is obtained. If high and low projected population growth rates are used as

measures, year 2000 withdrawal estimates would be approximately 15.6 bgd and 13.9

bgd rerpectiv ly. All three of these estimates appear reasonable and perhaps

ore Ltkelv to bracket what actually occurs than the WRC trend figure of 8.3

,gd wtcii seems too low and the NWC trend which is probably too high even for

an upper li-mt. Modified irrigation practices or decreases in developmental

strategies could shift the Montana projected trend downwards.


127



References


. Encyclopedia Britannica. Volume 15. "Montana." Chicago. 1972.

2. USDC, 1979.

3. Montana Depart nent of Natural Resources and Conservation. Water Resources
Assesment Project, Final Report. Helena, Montana. December 1978.

4. Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation. Water Use in
Montana. Inventory Series Report, No. 13. Helena, Montana. April 1975.



Nebraska


Introduction


Nebraska, which is about in the center of 'the U.S., contains 76,483 square

miles of land. 1/ The estimated 1980 population is 1,577,000 people. 2/ Al-

though the annual precipitation is about 22 inches, the eastern portion of the

State is semi-humid while the far western region is semi-arid in nature.


Projected Trends


Total water withdrawals in 197; were recorded at 8.7 bgd with consumptive

use of about 69 percent of this or 6-0 bgd. The distribution of withdrawals was

as follows: irrigation 7.3 bgd; power coiling 970 mgd; self-supplied industry

85 mgd; rural water use 140 mgd; and public water supplies 290 mgd (Figure 27).

Projections of water use to the year 2000 were made by the State as part of the

Missouri River Basin Framework Update. This study disclosed that irrigation

water use in 2000 would climb to about 12.5 bgd or about 1.7 times the 1975

level. The total withdrawal figure for 2000 was projected to be 13.8 bgd with

irrigated agriculture accounting for about 90 percent of this. As shown in Fig-

ure 27, Nebraska's water future is tied heavily to the agricultural sector.









128



Missouri River Basin
Commission Framework
Update (1977)
Historic Data (USGS)


WARC 0(1975)
year 2000 = 155% af
year 1970 (8.4 bgd)






( 1I I I t I I


1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 19
Y


)75 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
ear
Missouri River Basin NWC (mid-projection)
year 2000 = 314% at
Commission Framework year 1970 (18.8 bgd)
Update (1977) (All water)
13.8 bgd


. . .








.WRC (1975) year
2000= 103% of
year 1970 (6.2 bgd)
(Freshwater)




-,, Snteam Eeitri
I -Othw I I


1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year


Figure 27. Nebraska Water Withdrawals and Consumptive Use
(Actual 1950 1975, Projected 1975 2000)


r 129

phifts in water use trends will be most pronounced if projected expansion of

irrigated acreage is not realized or increased irrigation water use efficiencies

reduce overall withdrawal levels.


Water Problems


inadequacy of surface water supplies is an important consideration in the

State. WRC indicates that much of Nebraska experiences depletion levels in ex-

ceas of 70 percent, even in average years. There is also considerable ground

water overdrafting. Point source pollution is noticeable in populous areas and

onpoint source pollution is evident in several regions. Eutrophication,

flooding and erosion are other problems of importance.


Analysis


Using a maximum expected population growth rate as an indicator, Nebraska's

IWter withdrawals in 2000 would be about 10.2 bgd. This is less than the State

projection of 13.8 bgd but it might be representative of conditions if the

growth rate in irrigation were slowed. The WRC trend figure of 6.2 bgd seems un-

'lely to be realistic even as a lower limit. On the other hand, the NWC trend

appears high even as an upper limit to growth. Considering the current emphasis

on water conservation and energy costs, a year 2000 level less than Nebraska's

Figure could be closer to the truth.


References


BLM, 1976.

USDC,1979.

State of Nebraska. Natural Resources Commission. Letter from
Dayle E. Williamson. March 10, 1978.


10 -


Historic Data (USGS)
(Freshwater)


... . .
............ .
rrigation nio
... .......
. . . :~ ~~


. .-









130




4. U.S. Water Resources Council. The Nation's Water Resources 1975-2000.
U.S. Gov't. Print. Off., Washington, D.C. December 1978.


Nevada

Introduction


Nevada is the driest State in the Nation having an average annual precipi-

tation of about nine inches. The State is large, with a land mass of 109,889

square miles. 1/ The estimated 1980 population is 649,000 people. 2/

Projected Trends


In 1975 the total water withdrawals amounted to about 3.5 bgd. Of this

amount, 1.6 bgd were consumed. Irrigated agriculture accounted for the lion's

share, 3.1 bgd while self-supplied industry used 220 mgd and public water

systems utilized about 170 mgd (Figure 28).

The Nevada Division of Water Planning has estimated water use to the year

2000. 3/ Their studies project that in the year 2000, withdrawals will be as

follows: public water systems 695 mgd; self-supplied industries 392 mgd; elec-

tric power 65 mgd; rural water uses about 3 mgd; and irrigated agriculture 3.4

bgd. This will yield a grand total of 4.6 bgd (Figure 28). Using the 1975

ratio of consumptive use to water withdrawn, a year 2000 estimate of consump-

tive use is 2.2 bgd. In Nevada, as in many other water-short western States,

the future of water availability will rest heavily on now irrigation water is

managed and developed.

Water Problems


Nevada's number one problem is an inadequate surface water supply. 4/ WRC

estimates that even in an average year, depletions exceed 70 percent for almost


Z











a
E


2


1


Historic Data (USGS)







I I f i
-


Estimated on the Basis
Of Nevada Irligatioi
Projections and Percent
Consumptive Use in
1975

WRC (1975)
year 2000 = 155% of
Sh year 1970 (2.35 bgd)


5- NWC (mid-projection)
year 2000 = 314% of


Nevada Division of
Water Planning (1979)


6
Historic Data (USGS)
(Freshwater)
5 4 4.6bgd


4-




SIrrigation & Rural



1 .- .- "' ,. ....



1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 i990 1995 2000
Year


year 1970 (10 bgd)
(All water)


-WRC (1975) year
2000 = 103% of
year 1970 (3.35 bgd)
(Freshwater)


Figure 28. Nevada Water Withdrawals and Consumptive Use
(Actual 1950- 1975, Projected 1975- 2000)


S1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 !990 1995 2000








132



the entire State. There are also some point and nonpoint source pollution

problems, and erosion is an issue in the western part of the State.


Analysis


Nevada's projected water uses to 2000 are characterized by relatively

modest trends. These are fairly consistent with WRC's projected average na-

tional rates of growth but they are somewhat higher. The NWC national trend

when applied to Nevada yields results inconsistent with the State's potential

for growth and is out of line even as a maximum (Figure 28). Increased water

conservation in the irrigation sector coupled with higher energy costs could

result in the Nevada estimate being high. In view of past trends, however, the

Nevada figure of 4.6 bgd in 2000 appears reasonable and should serve as a good

planning tool.


References


1. BLM, 1976.

2. USDC, 1979.

3. Nevada Division of Water Planning. Letter and data from James P. Hawke.
June 12,1978.

4. U.S. Water Resources Council. The Nation's Water Resources 1975-2000.
U.S. Gov't. Print. Off., Washington, D.C. December 1978.


New Hampshire


Introduction


New Hampshire is a small New England State having a land area of 9,027

square miles and an estimated 1980 population of about 870,000 people. 1,2/


133



.ihe mean annual precipitation is about 42 inches and in general, water supplies

are adequate.


Projected Trends


In 1975 total water withdrawals amounted to about one bgd (Figure 29).

isaline water comprised 62 percent of this figure. The distribution of water

use was the following: power cooling 620 mgd; self-supplied industry 210 mgd;

and public water supplies 79 mgd. Rural and other uses accounted for the re-

mainder. The historic water use trends are shown on Figure 29. The amount

of water consumptively used in 1975 was only 21 mgd.

Projections of water use to the year 2000 were not available. Some in-

creases in all sectors are anticipated, however, and at least 2 new power plants

are expected to be operational before 1988.


Water Problems


Pollution is the major water problem in New Hampshire. Point source pol-

lution is extensive and non-point source pollution is particularly troublesome

in the southern portion of the State. 3/ There are also some ground water

quality problems and eutrophication is widespread.' Flooding is a significant

issue.


Analysis


Using projected population growth rate as a measure (Series II-A), an es-

timated year 2000 figure for total water withdrawals would be about 1.5 bgd; for

fresh water alone it would be about 0.6 bgd, or very close to the WRC trend es-

timate. The NWC trend, when applied to New Hampshire, gives a year 2000 total














0.06


0 04


0.02



195


0i


Historic Data (USGS)




_0---o- 0 -- -WRC (1975)
year 2000 = 155% o
year 1970 (0.03 bgd)

I I I i


1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 .995 2000
Year


3.0





2.0 NWC (mid-projection)
Historic Data (USGS) year 2000 = 314% o

(All water)

V )1



-s-* -0----0----- -WRC (i 375) year
2000 = 103% o
,Fr hwatn I year 1970 (0.55 bgd)
L I (Freshwater)
1950 1955 1965 1970 ; i5 1980 1985 1990 1195 2000


Figure 29. New Hampshire Water Withdrawals and Consumptive Use
(Actual 1950 1975, Projected 1975- 2000)


135



withdrawal of about 2 bgd. This level is reasonable, especially if the new

electric generating facilities are located along the coast and use flow-through

cooling.


References


' 1t76.

USDC, 1979.

U.S. Water Resources Council. The Nation's Water Resources 1975-2000.
U.S. Gov't. Print. Off., Washington, D.C. December 1978.


New Jersey


Introduction


New Jersey is a Middle Atlantic State occupying a land mass of about 7,521

square miles. 1/ The estimated 1980 population is approximately /.6 million. 2/

The State has an average annual precipitation of about 46 inches and the general

situation regarding water supply is good.


Projected Tren,'s



The total water withdrawal in 1975 was about 6.6 bgd (Figure 30). Of this

total the largest portion, about 58 percent, was saline water. Steam electric

cooling accounted for 4.3 bgd (80 percent saline water); self-supplied industry

comprised 1.1 bgd (430 mgd saline and 670 mgd fresh water); irrigation 140 mgd;

rural water uses 110 mgd; and public water supplies 960 mgd. Sixty-five percent

of all water withdrawn was used for power cooling. The total consumptive use

in 1975 was reported at 440 mgd, about half of this was accounted for by public

water systems and about 25 percent was attributed to irrigated agriculture.


L I I I-






I

136



The New Jersey Division of Water Resources (DWR) has made an extensive

study of water use to 2020. 3/ The projections shown on Figure 30 are based on

DWR's findings.

Three basic sets of information were combined by DWR to develop statewide

projections of water demands. These were: 1) data on rates of water use for resi-

dential, commercial and industrial activities; 2) population projections for

New Jersey counties; and 3) county employment projections by industrial sector.

Data on water use rates were compiled from a variety of sources.

Population forecasts prepared by the New Jersey Department of Labor and

Industry, the Office of Business and Economics (OBE) were utilized for the water

use projections. Three OBE population projection series were selected in order

to provide a range of water use estimates. Medium range forecasts (OBE Series

II) which assume continuation of "current trends" were identified as the set of

future events most likely to occur. These are the trends shown on Figure 30.

This series projects New Jersey population, which was 7.2 million in 1970, to

increase to 9.8 million by the year 2020. 3/

Although electric utilities demand large quantities of water, most New

Jersey plants do not use fresh water. In fact, in 1975, freshwater intake to-

talled 543 mgd, only 21 percent of total water intake by electric utilities and

this is projected to decrease to 366 mgd (or 6 percent of total use) by 1989

(Public Service Electric and Gas Company, 1975). 3/ Most of the fresh water

used by electric utilities is by plants located in the Delaware River Basin in

Burlington, Mercer and Gloucester Counties. Water used by electric utilities in

1975 and projected water use for 1989, as estimated by New Jersey's three power

companies, are shown in Table III-12. 3/


I
0.5
E






19I




14


12


10



S8

6


4


Historic Data (USGS)


i I i I


50 1955 1960 1965


1970


New Jersey Dept. of
Environmental Protection
Projection (1978)

S0.69 bd
)-WRC (1975)
year 2000 = 155% of
year 1970 (0.58 bgd)





I I I


1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year


NWC (mid-projection)
year 2000 = 314% of
year 1970 (20 bgd)
(All water)





bgd









-WRC (19751 year
2000= 103. of
yeai 1970 13.1 bgd)
(Freshwater)


1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year


Figure 30. New Jersey Water Withdrawals and Consumptive Use
(Actual 1950 1975, Projected 1975 2000)


I I I I I








138



Table III-12

NEW JERSEY WATER SUPPLY MASTER PLAN


WATER USE BY ELECTRIC UTILITIES

(mgd)


1975

Total Water Total Water Fresh Water Fresh Water
Intake Consumption Intake Consumption

2593.35 24.03 542.85 4.06




1989

Total Water Total Water Fresh Water Fresh Water
Intake Consumption Intake Consumption


6315.98


103.11


365.50


In constructing the trend for total water withdrawals shown on Figure 30,

the 1989 DWR figure for total water intake by electric utilities was added to

the total fresh water intake for other sectors (Table III-13) to arrive at a

combined total withdrawal use in 1989 of about 8.4 bgd. The year 2000 figure

of 9.8 bgd was obtained by extending the line obtained connecting the esti-

mated 1989 figure with the 1975 USGS estimate of 6.6 bgd. fhe year 2000 es-

timate incorporates a higher 1975 base figure than that reported by DWR and,

thus, might be less than a DWR forecast if one had been made.


139



Table III-13

NEW JERSEY WATER SUPPLY MASTER PLAN 3/

SUMMARY OF REGIONAL PROJECTIONS

POPULATION SERIES: CURRENT TRENDS, EMPLOYMENT SERIES: SHIFT/SHARE



1975 2000
-I Residen- Indus- I IResiden- I ndus- I
Category tial trial Total tial trial Total

I I II I I
Fresh water
Intake (mgd) 486.7 1064.8 1551.5 586.5 1102.7 1689.21
I 1 i 1 i i

Consumptive I I
Use (mgd) --- ---- ----- 586.5 105.4 I 691.8!
I I II I I


Water Problems


New Jersey, like most other industrial States, experiences widespread pol-

lution problems from both point and non-point sources. Flooding, erosion, sedi-

mentation and eutrophication are other issues of concern.


Analysis


The water use trends shown on Figure 30 are for the most likely set of

events which could occur in the future according to DWR. Under this set of

assumptions, total fresh water intake for the State is projected to increase

15.9 percent over 1975 levels by 2020 to 1798.8 mgd. Rates of increase vary

both by sector and for various counties. Between 1975 and 2020 residential

water intake is projected to increase 36.7 percent while intake by non-residen-

tial users is expected to expand 6.4 percent.


I








140



Results obtained by DWR under a faster growth trend showed that total

water intake for the State would increase 5.1 percent from 1975 to 1980 and

27.8 percent from 1975 to 2020. "Slow growth" assumptions were found to reduce

the increase in water intake to 15.1 percent by 2020. It was also found that

future water demands might be reduced significantly as the result of changes

in industrial water recirculation.

The WRC national trend, when applied to historic New Jersey data, yields a

year 2000 fresh water withdrawal level of 3.1 bgd. This is comparable with

the DWR estimate of about 2.0 bgd. The NWC trend level of 20 bgd seems high

even as an upper limit based on the findings of DWR's study.


References


1. BLM, 1976.

2. USDC, 1979.

3. State of New Jersey. Department of Environmental Protection. Division
of Water Resources. The Statewide Water Supply Master Plan. Interim
Output. Trenton, New Jersey. December 1977.

4. U.S. Water Resources Council. The Nation's Water Resources 1975-2000.
U.S. Gov't. Print. Off., Washington, D.C. December 1978.


New Mexico


Introduction


New Mexico is one of the Nation's largest States, occupying about 121,412

square miles of southwestern land. 1/ The estimated 1980 population is about

1.2 million people. 2/ In an arid land, which is much of New Mexico, water is

especially precious in that it must be applied to the land if a variety of crops


141



is to be grown. Further, the yield of water from precipitation in New Mexico

is relatively small (about 15 inches per year) and in a hot, dry climate the

rate of evaporation of water is high. 3/


Projected Trends


Water withdrawals in 1975 totalled approximately 3,200 mgd. Of this amount,

irrigated agriculture used 2,900 mgd; self-supplied industry 110 mgd; public

water systems accounted for 190 mgd; and rural water users withdrew about 68 mgd.

Of particular importance is the fact that irrigation accounted for approximately

91 percent of all water withdrawn and that of this amount, almost 50 percent

was consumptively used (Figure 31).

Population projections were used by the State of New Mexico in determining

future urban and rural domestic water requirements while manufacturing water re-

quirements were based on the number of people estimated to be employed in manu-

facturing. 4/ Three levels of population and employment projections were used.

They consisted of: 4/

(a) the highest, a projection prepared by the Bureau of Business Re-
search, University of New Mexico (BBR); (b) the intermediate level,
a projection prepared cooperatively by the Office of Business Econo-
mics of the Department of Commerce and Economic Research Service of
the Department of Agriculture (OBERS); and (c) the lowest, a pro-
jection by the Bureau of Economic Development (formerly the Office of
Business Economics) and the Economic Research Service (BEA-BBR).

A summary of future water withdrawal and depletion levels (consumptive use)

for 1980 and 2000 is given in Tables III-14 and 111-15. These high and low pro-

jections are also shown on Figure 31.








142



TABLE III-14

SUMMARY OF FUTURE WATER WITHDRAWALS AND DEPLETION REQUIREMENTS--NEW MEXICO 4
BEA 1980 and 2000

(thousands of acre-feet)


USE Withdrawal Depletion Withdrawal Depletion


Urban (Municipal) 180.3 96.3 242.5 147.6
Rural domestic 19.0 12.8 22.2 15.8
Irrigated agriculture 3,623.0 2,019.2 3,564.1 2063.4
Manufacturing 8.9 5.3 15.9 9.5
Minerals 176.4 113.9 299.7 206.5
Military 16.2 9.4 16.2 9.4
Livestock 21.7 21.7 24.9 24.9
Stockpond evaporation 38.1 38.1 43.7 43.7
Power 70.9 64.7 164.0 161.3
Fish and wildlife 97.0 65.2 169.8 118.0
Recreation 1 0.6 0.6 1.1 1.1
Reservoir evaporation 313.7 313.7 401.1 401.1


TOTAL 4,565.8 2,760.9 4,965.2 3,202.3

1/ Recreation is land based only.


143



TABLE III -15

SUMMARY OF FUTURE WATER WITHDRAWALS AND DEPLETION REQUIREMENTS--NEW MEXICO 4
BBR 1980 and 2000

(thousands of acre-feet)



1980 2000

USE Withdrawal Depletion Withdrawal Depletion

Urban (Municipal) 288.9 155.6 579.4 352.6
Rural domestic 21.0 14.0 23.5 17.3
Irrigated agriculture 3,623.0 2,019.2 3,564.1 2,063.4
Manufacturing 10.7 6.4 19.4 11.6
Minerals 176.4 113.9 299.7 206.5
Military 16.2 9.4 16.2 9.4
Livestock 21.7 21.7 24.9 24.9
Stockpond evaporation 38.1 38.1 43.7 43.7
Power 70.0 64.7 164.0 161.3
Fish and wildlife 97.0 65.2 169.8 118.0
Recreation 1 1.1 1.1 2.4 2.4
Reservoir evaporation 313.7 313.7 401.1 401.1


TOTAL 4,678.7 2,823.0 5,308.2 3,412.2

1/ Recreation is land based only.
















Historic Data (USGS)
Ji


I I I i


0 1955 1960 1965 1970


12 -


Historic Data (USGS)
(Freshwater)










_ rrt.. .
. . . . ..


Bureau of Reclamation
and State of New Mexico
(1976)


3.0 bgd
Hi 2.8 bgd

S( WRC (1975)
year 2000 = 155% of
year 1970 (2.2 bgd)



I I I


1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year






Bureau of Reclamation
and State of New Mexico
Projections (1976)








High 1 4,6
4.4
LOw


.1


-NWC (mid-projection)
year 2000 = 314% of
year 1970 (10 bgd)
(All water)




.bed
Ibgd
-WRC (1975) year
2000 = 103% of
year 1970 (3.3 bgd)
(Freshwater)


I i:::::::::::::::::::::::::::: I. I I I I I I
5 0 19 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year









Figure 31 New Mexico Water Withdrawals and Consumptive Use
(Actual 1950 1975, Projected 1975 2000)


145



Water Problems


New Mexico experiences many water problems, a number of them severe. During

average years, there is an inadequate surface water supply with depletion levels

in excess of 70 percent over most of the State. Ground water overdraft is also

extensive as are water quality problems associated with underground supplies.

Surface water pollution is currently minimal but non-point source pollution is

widespread. Periodic flooding is a problem in some locations and drinking water

supplies are subject to low quality in many areas. Erosion runs rampant in the

state.


Analysis


New Mexico annually receives a statewide average of about 15 inches of pre-

cipitation -- an aggregate of more than 90 million acre-feet. Of this amount,

slightly less than 3 million acre-feet or about 3 percent appears as runoff in

streams; the remainder returns to the atmosphere through evaporation and use by

natural vegetation, or percolates into the ground as recharge to aquifers. 2/

In addition to the surface water supply, the total volume of ground water in

storage in New Mexico is estimated to be about 20 billion acre-feet or enough

to cover the land surface of the State to a depth of 300 feet. Of this amount,

roughly one-forth is fresh or only slightly brackish water that might be used

for many purposes without treatment.

The New Mexico State Engineer's 1965 Study showed that something less than

one bgd of surface water was available for beneficial consumptive use. 3/ A

look at Figure 31 shows that the 1975 recorded level of consumptive use (1,600

vgd ) and the State's year 2000 high and low estimates for consumption all ex-

ceed the surface water supply availability for such use by considerable margins.


I [ I I








146



The deficit is made up from ground water withdrawals which in 1975 amounted to

about 1,600 mgd. Much of this underground water is being mined.

Water supply is an overriding issue in New Mexico. The conservative growth

trends in water use projected by the State reflect this. It is clear, however,

that even these projections, if realized, would mean continued and increased

overdrafting by the year 2000. The WRC national trend, when applied to New Mexico

data, yields year 2000 estimates somewhat less than those made by the State. It

appears to be a lower limit which might be achieved under conditions of greatly

increased irrigation efficiency or reduced irrigated farming. The NWC trend fig-

ure for 2000 of 10 bgd seems very unrealistic for New Mexico even as an upper

limit.


References


1. BLM, 1976.

2. USDC, 1979.

3. Hale, W.E., Reiland, L.J., and Beverage, J.P. Characteristics of the Water
Supply in New Mexico. Technical Report 31. State Engineers Office. Santa
Fe, New Mexico. 1965.

4. U.S. Department of Interior. Bureau of Reclamation. New Mexico Water Re-
sources Assessment for Planning Purposes. Washington, D.C. 1976.

5. U.S. Water Resources Council. The Nation's Water Resources 1975-2000,
U.S. Gov't. Print. Off., Washington, D.C. December 1978.


New York


Introduction


New York is one of the largest of the northeastern States. It has a land

mass of 47,831 square miles and an estimated 1980 population of 18,086,000

people.1,2/ The average annual precipitation is about 39 inches and while the


F 147



State generally enjoys abundant water resources, local water supply problems

are in evidence, especially in the New York City area.

Projected Trends


S In 1975 the total water withdrawals for New York were about 24 bgd. One

half of this was saline water, used solely for power cooling. Of the total

amount of water withdrawn, power cooling accounted for about 78 percent, in-

dustry about 15 percent and municipalities something over 5 percent. Rural
(Sw
domestic uses and irrigation accounted for the remainder. The 1975 consumptive

use amounted to approximately 740 mgd (Figure 32).

The New York State Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC) has pro-

vided estimates of water use for the years 1970, 1980 and 2000. 3/ These are

given in Table III-16 and Figure 32. The DEC figures indicate that in 2000, steam

electric cooling will still dominate the scene, using about 81 percent of all

water withdrawn. It would appear that the use of saline water will continue to

be important.


Table III-16

NEW YORK STATE WATER SUPPLY NEEDS, 1970-2000 3
4:


WATER USE CATEGORY



Municipal Water Supply

Industrial Water Supply

Rural Water Supply

Irrigation

Cooling

TOTAL


YEAR


1970 1980 2000
(millions of gallons per day)

2,340 2,910 3,970

1,620 2,060 2,630

150 190 220

120 320 340

0,500 22,100 29,800

4,740 27,580 36,960


1

1





























































Figure 32. New York Water Withdrawals and Consumptive Use
(Actual 1950 1975, Projected 1975 2000)


*149



SWater Problems


Surface water pollution from both point and non-point sources is widespread

New York. Eutrophication and drinking water quality are also of concern. The

,etern portion of the State faces flooding problems while the northwestern area

i subject to drainage problems and wet soils. Erosion and sedimentation are of

peat concern throughout the State.


Analysis


The WRC national trend, when applied to the New York data, yields a fresh

.ter withdrawal level of about 9.2 bgd in the year 2000. By taking upper and

lower Bureau of the Census projected population growth rates to 2000 and applying

them to the historic data, year 2000 figures of 13.4 bgd and 12.5 bgd, respec-

tively, are obtained. Since these were calculated from the 1975 data base while

the WRC trend was projected on the basis of somewhat lower 1970 figures (about 75

percent of the 1975 level), all three estimates are very close. Exclusive of

what happens in the steam electric sector, if large additional quantities of

fresh water are not used for power cooling, a year 2000 fresh water withdrawal

of about 13 bgd appears reasonable. Total water withdrawals will be strongly

influenced by the growth in the electric generating industry and the nature of

cooling devices employed. Six new plants are projected to be completed in New

York by 1988 and others are likely to be placed in operation before 2000. New

York's projected total withdrawal level in 2000 of 37 bgd could occur under

present assumptions about power cooling. Even the NWC trend figure of 57 bgd

dght be a reasonable upper limit if many new facilities use once-through

cooling once they have been placed on line.









150



References




1. BLM, 1976.

2. USDC, 1979.

3. Eichler, T.P. New York State Department of Environmental Conservation.
Letter dated March 22,1978.

4. U.S. Water Resources Council. The Nation's Water Resources 1975-2000.
U.S. Gov't. Print. Off., Washington, D.C. December 1978.



North Carolina


Introduction


North Carolina is a South Atlantic State. Its land mass encompasses 48,798

square miles and the estimated 1980 population was 5.7 million. 1,2/ The av-

erage annual precipitation is about 50 inches and water supplies are presently

adequate for most of the State's water needs. It is likely that this situation

will continue to the year 2000.


Projected Trends


Total 1975 water withdrawals in North Carolina were approximately 6 bgd, in-

cluding about 950 mgd of saline water (Figure 33). Consumptive use totalled 490

mgd. Withdrawal uses were divided as follows: steam electric cooling 75 per-

cent; industrial uses 16 percent; irrigation 1 percent; rural uses 3 percent; and

domestic uses about 5 percent. All of the saline water used in 1975 went to

power cooling. Using data supplied by the North Carolina Department of Natural

Resources and Community Development (DNRCD, letter dated March 1978), the trend

in water use from 1975 to 2000 was developed. Municipal and industrial water

use from central systems was assumed to experience about a two fold increase and


Historic Data (USGS)










I I


iO 1955 1960 1965


1970


S WRC (1975)
year 2000 = 155% of
Year 1970 (0.75 bgd)





I I I I


1975 1980 1985 1990 1995
Year


Estimated Using 1978
North Carolina Data
and Assuming Cooling
Use Doubles From 1975
to 2000

Historic Data (USGS)









Freshwater





1 11


200(


0



-NWC (mid-projection)
year 2000 = 314% of
year 1970 (18.5bgd)
(All water)


1.1 bgd







-WRC (1975) year
2000= 103% of
year 1970 (5.9bgd)
(Freshwater)


1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year









Figure 33. North Carolina Water Withdrawals and Consumptive Use
(Actual 1950- 1975. Projected 1975- 2000)


IIII III II








152



steam electric cooling demands were also assumed to double by 2000. Irrigation

water use is expected to increase significantly but the amount of water with-

drawn for that purpose will still be small compared to the total. Based on the

foregoing assumptions, the allocation of water withdrawals in 2000 would be as

follows: steam electric cooling 79 percent; industrial uses 12 percent; irriga-

tion 2 percent; rural uses 2 percent; and domestic uses about 5 percent. The

estimated doubling of steam electric cooling water by 2000 is based on several

forecasts of new power plants to be built by that time. The capacity provided

by these plants ranges up to double that of 1975. Other estimates were based

on the following observations provided by the State of North Carolina:

-- Livestock water uses will not increase greatly.

Irrigation forecasting is controversial. Base data are limited and
there are significant differences among experts on future irrigation
prospects. Some scientists at North Carolina State University have
forecast use by 2020 of four to five times the present level. Currently,
tobacco is the chief irrigated crop and projections of tobacco indicate
only a 25 percent increase in production. Recent indications point to
irrigation of corn, soybeans, and similar crops. This could accelerate
if large super-farms prove to be viable and expand into other areas of
the State. They are presently confined to the coastal areas.

Mining is a large user of water in North Carolina. Uses are of two
types. In sand and gravel and similar operations, water is used for
washing and cleaning. The use is largely non-consumptive. The largest
water use in mining is for de-watering phosphate mines. Currently the
use is about 65 mgd and increases to over 150 mgd are possible.

The use of domestic rural water should decline slightly.

The use of cooling water for electric power depends upon two factors.
The rate at which electric power use increases, and the degree to which
EPA mandates cooling towers rather than the use of once-through cooling.
There are plans for construction of fossil and nuclear plants in North
Carolina by 1990 that would have a capacity of over 10 million kilowatts.

The DNRCD noted that its data on water uses was subject to fairly large

errors and that it should be used cautiously.


153



Water Problems


North Carolina is faced with fairly extensive flooding, erosion and sedi-

mentation problems. There are also local water supply problems and ground water

overdraft problems along the coast. Point source pollution, saline water intru-

sion and eutrophication are other issues that the State is dealing with.


Analysis


Based on existing water supply sources, the DNRCD has estimated that the

safe yield (dependable supply) for a 50 year period is about 17 bgd. This is

significantly greater than the 11.1 bgd withdrawal level projected for 2000 and

indicates that overall, the State has ample water supplies, at least for

the next 20 years.

Using high and low projected rates of population growth (Bureau of the

Census), and applying these to the North Carolina water use levels in 1975 yields

total withdrawal figures for the year 2000 of 6.8 and 7.6 bgd, respectively.

These figures are perhaps more indicative of a lower limit of growth than the WRC

national trend value of 5.9 bgd. The NWC national trend projection of 18.5 bgd

seems high but might be a reasonable upper limit for planning purposes.

Saline water use increased significantly from 1970 to 1975 (Figure 33). It

is expected that this trend will continue and that these waters will be used

mostly for cooling purposes in coastal locations.

The trend towards large thermal electric facilities, many of which are

powered by nuclear fuel, has resulted in significant increases in water use for

cooling. Expanded electric generating capacity for North Carolina is forecast

indicating continued increases in water use for this sector. The National








154



Coal Association has identified 7 new plants to be completed in the State by

1988. The quantities of water used, however, will be shaped by the cooling mode

employed. One North Carolina assumption was that cooling towers will be used on

all new units after 1979 resulting in an estimated increase in consumptive use

of about 300 mgd. Adding other projected consumptive losses to this figure, a

total year 2000 consumptive use of approximately 900 mgd is obtained, about

double the 1975 level. This figure is slightly greater than the WRC national

trend would suggest for North Carolina (Figure 33).


References


1. BLM, 1976.

2. USDC, 1979.

3. McRorie, A.F. North Carolina Department of Natural Resources
and Community Development, Department of Environmental Management.
Letter dated March 16, 1978.

4. U.S. Water Resources Council. The Nation's Water Resources 1975-2000.
U.S. Gov't. Print. Off., Washington, D.C. December 1978.



North Dakota


Introduction


North Dakota has a land mass of 69,273 square miles and an estimated 1980

population of 630,000 people. 1,2/ The mean annual precipitation is about 17

inches. While this is one of the dryer States, the low population has minimized

water supply problems except in some localized areas, notably the region north-

east of the Missouri River Basin boundary.


155



Projected Trends


According to USGS figures, the 1975 rate of water withdrawals for North

Dakota was about 880 mgd (Figure 34). The consumptive use in that same year

was about 240 mgd. About 70 percent of all water withdrawals in 1975 were for

steam electric cooling. Agriculture accounted for about 18 percent of these

and the remainder was attributed to industry, cities and rural uses. Of the

water consumed in 1975, agriculture accounted for the major portion, about 62

percent. According to the North Dakota State Water Commission (letter, January

1980), some expansion of water use in all sectors, except self-supplied rural

domestic, is anticipated by the year 2000 (Table 111-17).


Table III-17

Water Use Trends in North Dakota (1978-2000)


Sector

Manufacturing and
Mining

Steam Electric


Irrigation

Rural Domestic and
Municipal2

Self-Supplied Rural
Domestic

Livestock

Total


Water Use 1000's of acre-feet per year

1978 1985 2000

7.0 13.0 78.0


1,127.0
(15.0)1

150.0


60.0


22.0

22.0

1,388.0


6,466.0
(86.0)1

200.0


62.0


19.0

27.0

6,787.0


8,271.0
(110.0)1

635.0


68.0


19.0

48.0

9,119.0'


1/ Consumptive Use.

2/ Supplied by Public Works.
















Historic Data (USGS)


I I I I


WRC (1975)
_- ---- O---- O year 2000 = 155% of
year 1970 (0.3 bgd)
I I I I I


1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 20(
Year


Historic Data (USGS) Ui
(Freshwater)




Steam Eletric



950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 20C


Year


8.1 bed





NWC (mid-projection)
year 2000 = 314% of
year 1970 (2.0bgd)
(All water)

)--WRC (1975) year
2000 = 103% of
00 year 1970 (0.8bgd)
(Freshwater)


Figure 34. North Dakota Water Withdrawals and Consumptive Use
(Actual 1950 1975, Projected 1975 2000)


r


1.0 --


By far, the largest increases in water use are expected in the steam

electric and agricultural sectors were water requirements are forecast to

increase by more than 7 times and more than 4 times respectively. In terms of

quantities of water used, however, the steam electric sector totally overwhelms

the rest. The National Coal Association indicates 6 new power plants will be

on line by 1988. This expansion is tied partly to the development of the State's

lignite resource. Once-through cooling is apparently the mode that will be

used for these facilities. As Figure 34 shows, the dominance of new electric

generating facilities makes forecasting from past trends of little value.


Water Problems

North Dakota experiences some water supply problems but these are mostly

localized. Point source pollution problems are evident in the southeastern and

central portions of the State. In the northeast, ground water quality is a pro-

blem and eutrophication is widespread along the eastern border and in the north-

east. Flooding, erosion and sedimentation are also important, especially in the

eastern and northeastern portions of the State.


Analysis

Estimates of water use in 2000 based on national trends or projected popu-

lation changes are meaningless for North Dakota due to the significant impact of

new electric generating facilities planned or under construction. The water use

forecast for these plants constitutes about 91 percent of the total projected

water use in 2000. It is also significant that consumptive use in this sector

is projected to increase about seven-fold. If consumptive use in irrigation is

assumed to be proportional to the 1975 level and if consumptive use in other


1!







158


sectors remains constant, then the projected year 2000 consumptive use, includ-

ing that forecast for the added power cooling, would be about 820 mgd. This

would be more than three times the 1975 level and much greater than the WRC

national trend would suggest. Shifts away from once-through cooling could

significantly reduce the indicated withdrawal requirements but they would add

to the amount of water consumptively used.

References


1. BLM, 1976.

2. USDC,1979.

3. U.S. Water Resources Council. The Nation's Water Resources 1975-2000.
U.S. Gov't. Print. Off., Washington, D.C., December 1978.


Ohio
Introduction


Ohio encompasses 40,975 square miles and has an estimated 1980 population

of 10,657,000 people. 1,2/ The average annual precipitation is about 38 inches

and, in general, the State's water supply outlook is good. Water quality and

flooding are major problems.

Projected Trends


In 1975, Ohio withdrew about 16 bgd of fresh water. Approximately 75 per-

cent of this was used for power cooling. Adding other industrial uses accounts

for about 90 percent of all water withdrawals. Although a current projection

of future water use was not available, preliminary regional figures were ob-

tained from the Ohio Division of Water and their 1955 projection of water use





to the year 2000 was used. 3/ It was noted by the Department of Natural

Resources staff that although the population figures used in making it were

somewhat high, the water use projections "have been surprisingly accurate so

far" (letter dated March 10, 1978). The year 2000 projection for water with-

drawals is 25 bgd, about a 156 percent increase over the reported 1975 level.

Figure 35 reveals that an extension of the historic trend from 1955 to 1975 would

yield a projected year 2000 figure very close to 25 bgd.

Regional estimates of future water requirements for power cooling were pre-

dicted on the assumption that electrical energy requirements would increase at

About 5 percent per year after 1985 and that current estimates of facilities to

be developed between 1980 and 1985 were generally known. The National Coal As-

sociation indicated that 7 new plants will be on line in Ohio by 1988. Esti-

mates for the Southeastern, Central and Northeastern Planning Regions indicated

withdrawals for power cooling ranging from about 2.5 to 4 times present values

if once-through cooling is the mode chosen and from about 20 percent to 87 per-
cent of present levels if alternative cooling systems such as towers are used. 3/

( In either case, substantial increases in consumptive losses were projected.


Water Problems

Ohio's water problems are many and varied. Perhaps the most significant

problem is water pollution. Both point and non-point source pollution are wide-

spread and ground water quality problems are also evident, especially in the

northwestern portion of the State. Flooding, erosion, sedimentation and wet

soils and drainage problems also abound. 4/

Analysis

Preliminary regional studies of future water use in Ohio all indicate con-


r








160







o -WRC (1975)
year 2000 = 155% of
O --- year 1970 (7 bgd)







I I I I
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year

NWC (mid-projection)
Ohio DNR Water Division year 2000 = 314% of
(1955) year 1970 (56.5 bgd)
(All water)


5 bgd



-WRC (1975) year
2000 = 103% of
year 1970 (18.2 bidl
(Freshwater)


2



1i I I I


1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year








Figure 35. Ohio Water Withdrawals and Consumptive Use
(Actual 1950 1975, Projected 1975 2000)


Historic Data (USGS)


161



tinued growth in the traditional water using sector. Some increases are expected

in irrigated agriculture although year 2000 totals will probably be on the

order of 50 mgd. This is insignificant in contrast to industrial and power

cooling requirements but it does indicate about a three-fold increase in the

agricultural sector over 1975. Other eastern States are experiencing or pro-

jecting similar increases in supplemental irrigation. On the industrial

scene, increased recirculation is expected to have a down-trending influence.

The controlling water use sector is and will continue to be power cooling.

While Statewide figures for the year 2000 were not available, the regional

studies all showed that large increases in withdrawal use for cooling purposes

could be expected if once-through cooling was continued and adopted for new

plants. On the other hand, the same studies showed an actual decline in water

use if alternative cooling methods were widely employed. For a mix of the

two types of cooling mode, WRC's trend might not be unreasonable. If all new

plants used once-through cooling, however, the NWC trend figure of 56.5 bgd

night be achieved. The 1955 projection by the State of Ohio falls within

these limits and appears to have continued credibility as a planning device.

Using the upper and lower population growth rates projected for Ohio by the

Bureau of the Census as indicators of water use trends, year 2000 levels of

19.2 and 16.5 bgd would be projected.

References


1. BLM, 1976.

2. USDC, 1979.

3. Preliminary data provided by the Ohio Department of Natural Resources, 1978.

4. U.S. Water Resources Council. The Nation's Water Resources 1975-2000.
U.S. Gov't. Print. Off., Washington, D.C. December 1978.


I I I I
50 1955 1960 1965 1970








Historic Data (USGS)
(Freshwater)


I


-0


Theroal r


t








162



Oklahoma


Introduction


Drained by the Arkansas and Red Rivers, Oklahoma is estimated to contain

over 300 maf of underground water. 1/ The Rush Springs Sandstone bed supplies

water at a rate of more than 500 gpm. Industrial, municipal and institutional

needs are satisfied by some 21 mgd of water from sandstone beds in the central

part of the State and about 70 percent of all irrigation withdrawals are from

ground water sources. Population estimates place the 1980 census at 2,834,000

people. 2/


Projected Trends


In a 1967 study, the Bureau of Reclamation reported that water use in 1960

totalled 1,378 mgd. They estimated 1980 water use at 2.8 bgd and 2010 use at

4.5 bgd (Table 111-18). It was also noted that water requirements in 2067

might reach about 6.6 bgd. Furthermore, the Bureau stated:

.... based on the projections used, water is available in the State to
supply all needs for at least the next 100 years. This supply can be
met by proper development of available surface and ground water re-
sources and by redistribution of surface water available for this pur-
pose. 3/


Table III-18
Oklahoma Water Requirements -- 1960 to 2010 (mgd) 3


1960 1980 2010


Manufacturing

Mining

Agriculture

Rural Domestic

Livestock

~ Irrigation

Electricity
Generation

Municipal

Government

Total


121.8

19.9

318.5

(8.0)

(40.5)

(270.0)


315.0

203.9

16.8

995.9


156.9

16.7

1,040.5

(7.9)

(37.8)

(994.8)


1,226.0

367.5

21.6

2,829.2


271.1

4.9

1,735.7

(8.2)

(36.0)

(1,691.5)


1,926.0

572.5

26.7

4,536.9


The Oklahoma Water Resources Board projected water use to be 2.5 mgd in

1980 and 3.6 mgd in 2000. 4/ The distribution by sectors is shown in Table III-19

and on Figure 36.


Sector

Hun ic ipa 1

Industrial

Utilities

Irrigation


Total


Table III-19
Projected Water Use Trends---1980 to 2000
(1000's of acre-feet per year)

1980

457.5

467.3

116.5

1,711.0

2,752.3


2000

663.1

557.0

395.5

2,459.5

4,075.1












2.0 r Historic Data (USGS)


1.0 --


I I I


50 1955 1960 1965 1970


-)- WRC (1975)
0-0- 0 '--- year 2000 = 155% of
0 year 1970 (1.3 bgd)




1975 I I 1990 1995 2000
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year


Figure 36. Oklahoma Water Withdrawals and Consumptive Use
(Actual 1950 1975, Projected 1975 2000)


Ir


Water Problems
The Oklahoma Agricultural Experiment Station reported that the largest

ground water reservoir, part of the Ogallala aquifer, was being depleted at a

much faster rate than it was being recharged. They noted that: 5/ ....on the

average, Cimarron County will be 50% dewatered in 14 years..... We will deplete

50% of the available water for the Oklahoma Panhandle (on the average) in 48

years.


In Texas County alone the water table has fallen over 86 feet in a period

of 21 years 5/ A report on the High Plains of Oklahoma and Texas stated

that: 6/

The effects of declining groundwater supply are immediately evident
in the case of irrigated cotton, where gross output drops from $24.7
million in 1967 to $21.8 million in 1995, then down again to $16.6
million. Irrigated food and feed grains both show increases through
1995, but then gross output begins to decline. Between 1995 and 2010
transfers of land from irrigated to dryland production is marked.'Most
other sectors of the High Plains economy follow closely the trend in
agricultural supply output sectors.' Feedlot livestock production, and
the associated production of meat products lead the growth through 1995.
'Then, post-1995, the declines in water pumpage for irrigation result
in reductions in crop output which, compounded by decreases in petroleum
output, triggers decreases in output of other sectors of the economy.....

In 1978, WRC reported that most of Oklahoma was experiencing problems of in-

adequate surface and ground water supplies. 7/ Water quality problems were also

Boted In several areas of the State. Most of the State is susceptible to flood-

lug. Erosion and sedimentation are also issues of concern.


Analysis

Oklahoma's projected water use to the year 2000 follows the NWC national

tend to an extent, although it is about one bgd less than the NWC rate of in-
Ilrase would yield for the State. WRC's national average projected growth rate

I much lower than the 1975 reported use for Oklahoma and thus appears far too
as an expectation for 2000 even if greater efficiency in irrigation water


I


I I I








166



use was achieved. Based on projected population growth, a year 2000 level of

about 2.9 bgd would be forecast. This estimate might well serve as a lower

limit of growth. In any event, only major changes in the irrigation sector

will have any great impact on Oklahoma's water withdrawals in the future. In

1975, irrigation accounted for about 50 percent of all water used and according

to Oklahoma's figures, this will increase to about 62 percent in the year 2000.


References


1. Oklahoma Water Resources Board. Oklahoma's Water Resources. Publication 30.
Oklahoma City. 1970.

2. USDC, 1979.

3. U.S. Department of the Interior. Bureau of Reclamation Water: The Key to
Oklahoma's Future. Interim Appraisal of Oklahoma Basins Project, Oklahoma.
Oklahoma 1967.

4. Letter from Mike Melton, Chief of the Planning Division. Oklahoma Water
Resources Board. March 10, 1978.

5. Agricultural Experiment Station. Oklahoma State University and Panhandle.
High Plains Agricultural Seminar. State University Cooperating. Goodwell,
Oklahoma. February 1, 1978.

6. Congressional Research Service. "Effects of Declining Groundwater Supplies
on the Economy of Western Oklahoma" Memorandum. Kenneth Cook, Library of
Congress, Washington, D.C. April 28, 1978.

7. U.S. Water Resources Council. The Nation's Water Resources 1975-2000,
U.S. Gov't. Print. Off., Washington, D.C. December 1978.


Oregon


Introduction


Oregon lies predominantly in the Pacific Northwest region and occupies

96,184 square miles. 1/ In 1980 the estimated population was 2,437,000. 2/

The Williamette River, in the northwest region, is the twelfth largest river


167



in the United States. It is in this river system's area that two-thirds of

Oregon's residents reside. 3/ In a matter of thirty years, the population has

doubled. 3/


Projected Trends


In 1967, the Oregon State Water Resources Board reported that:

Oregon will be a water deficient state, in the year 2070, because
it does not have enough water originating within its borders to ful-
fil its total requirement. The annual undepleted flow of all of the
basins in Oregon, equalled or exceeded in 4-of-5 years, was found to
be 65,940,000 acre-feet, and the total demand has been projected to
be 80,380,000 acre-feet in the year 2070. The net irrigable area in
Oregon totals 13,690,000 acres and the diversion for irrigation in
the year 2070 was projected to be 36,010,000 acre-feet. The popula-
tion of Oregon in 2070 has been projected to be 8,865,000 people,
with a total diversion for municipal and light industrial needs of
about 2,260,000 acre-feet. Other projected requirements for the
year 2070 approximate: heavy industries, 4,000,000 acre-feet; rec-
reation, 3,500,000 acre-feet; thermal power, 2,400,000 acre-feet (109
standard plants of 1,000,000 kilowatt capacity were projected); and
instream flows for water quality, fish life, recreation, and navi-
gation requirements, 41,600,000 acre-feet, which includes reuse of
9,270,000 acre-feet projected to be available from return flows from
the out-of-stream beneficial uses.

For the drier part of Oregon, lying east of the Cascade Range, the
annual undepleted flow that will be equalled or exceeded in 4-of-5
years was found to be 11,100,000 acre-feet, the total demand was pro-
jected to be 39,750,000 acre-feet, and the deficit to be 28,650,000
acre-feet. Taking into consideration the projected return flows, the
reduction of the flow of the Columbia River will amount to more than
26,000,000 acre-feet per year. That part of Oregon lying west of the
Cascades (the wetter part) will have a projected surplus of 14,210,000
acre-feet in the year 2070. 4/

In addition, each of the drainage basins in Oregon lying east of
the Cascade Mountains will have an insufficient amount of water avail-
able from internal supplies to meet their projected needs in the year
2070 and will need supplemental water from the Snake or Columbia Rivers.
The additional amount required was estimated to be about 28,700,000
acre-feet. 4/

By 2020, annual water demands are estimated to reach about 10.7 bgd. 5/

Municipalities and light industries will account for 830 mgd; irrigation 6.9 bgd;







168


thermal power 431 mgd; heavy industry and mining 1.3 bgd; recreation 1.2

bgd; and wildlife about 80 mgd. Projections to 2000 are shown on Figure 37.


Water Problems

Oregon experiences an inadequate surface water supply in the southcentral

portion of the State. 6/ Some saline water intrusion occurs in the west central

area along the coast. There is also substantial point source surface water pol-

lution and eutrophication in the upper two-thirds of the northwestern part of

the State. In addition, flooding is prevalent along Oregon's coastline. 6/


Analysis

In 1975, total water withdrawals were 6.9 bgd and consumptive use amounted

to 3.2 bgd. Irrigated agriculture accounted for about 87 percent of all water

used or 6 bgd. Approximately 50 percent of the irrigated withdrawals were con-

sumptively used. Exclusive of recreational uses, irrigation water requirements

are projected to constitute about 72 percent of all withdrawals in 2020. 5/

Changes in water use patterns in this sector will obviously have the most pro-

nounced influence on Oregon's withdrawal and consumptive use trends in the

coming years.

The State's projected level of water use in 2000 is very close to estimates

of 8.0 and 9.3 bgd obtained by extending the 1975 level of use on the basis of

low and high estimates of population growth to 2000. The WRC trend figure of 6

bgd seems lower than a lower limit might be expected to be and the NWC trend es-

timate of 18.5 bgd appears too high for even an upper limit.


References
1. BLM, 1976.


r


I
j


Historic Data (USGS)


lIL


1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year


1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980
Year


Figure 37. Oregon Water Withdrawals and Consumptive Use
(Actual 1950 1975, Projected 1975 2000)


-0-<--(* WRC (1975)
O_ -" year 2000 = 155% of
year 1970 (4 bgd)


1 1 1 1 1


w I I I I I


^








170



2. USDC, 1979.

3. Gleeson, George W. The Return of A River. The Williamette River, Oregon.
Oregon State University. Corvallis, Oregon. June 1972.

4. State Water Resources Board. Oregon's Long Range Requirements for Water.
Summary Report. Salem, Oregon. May 1979.

5. Letter from William H. Buckley, Executive Secretary. Water Resources Re-
search Institute. Oregon State University. Table 11-2. Corvallis, Oregon.
March 10, 1978.

6. U.S. Water Resources Council. The Nation's Water Resources 1975-2000,
U.S. Gov't. Print. Off., Washington, D.C. December 1978.


Pennsylvania


Introduction


The "Keystone" State is home to an estimated 11,913,000 people. 1/ Of her

44,966 square miles 2/ 308 square miles constitute surface water. 3/ Pennsylva-

nia is predominately an industrial state, most importantly its steel and iron

production, although farming is still a significant contributor to the economy.

Coal is among the important mined minerals.


Projected Trends


According to the USGS, Pennsylvania withdrew 18,000 mgd in 1975 excluding

hydroelectric power generation (Figure 38). In 1971, the State Department of

Environmental Resources noted that water use in Pennsylvania ranked quite high

on a national scale: .....1st in self-supplied industrial, 9th in rural, 16th

power generation and 37th in irrigation water usage." 4/ Tables III-20 and III-21

illustrate the water uses and consumptive losses by the State's principal water

using categories. 4/


Pa. Dept. of Environmental
Resources (1976)

Historic Data (USGS)


-




I I I I I I I I I
50 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2(
Yea


30 Historic Data (USGS)
Includes about one
percent or less saline
25 water


1.9 bgd


)- WRC (1975)
year 2000 =155% of
year 1970 (0.7 bgd)
DO


)- NWC (mid-projection)
year 2000 = 314% of
f year 1970 (63 bgd)
(All water)







- WRC (1975) year
2000 = 103% of
year 1970 (20.5 bgd)
(Freshwater)


1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year









Figure 38. Pennsylvania Water Withdrawals and Consumptive Use
(Actual 1950 1975, Projected 1975 2000)


Pa. Dept. of Enviromental
Resources (1976)


16.5 bod







a Til + Irrigation
Ii Z 5fTuiml/77


--73








172



Table III-20
Water Use and Water Losses 4
(1971)


Sector


Electric Generating

Self-Supplied Industry

Public Water Supply

Rural


Percent of Total
State Usage

69%

19%

10%

2%

100%


Percent of Total
State Losses *

1%

48%

33%

18%

100%


* Water no longer available for use.







Table III-21
Sources of Water Supply4
(1971)


Sector

Power Generation

Self-supplied Industrial

Municipal

Rural

Irrigation


Surface Water

98%

86%

94%

50%

89%


Groundwater

2%

14%

6%

50%

11%


The Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Resources reported that total

water usage in 1970 was 16,277.644 mgd and consumption 742.046 mgd. The public

sphere withdrew 1,420.78 mgd and consumed 142.099; minerals withdrew 150.271 mgd


173


and consumed 11.148 mgd; manufacturing withdrawals were 4,617.977 mgd and

331.084 mgd were consumed; power withdrew 9,801.351 mgd and consumed 111,952

agd; livestock withdrew 46.377 mgd with 34.728 mgd going to consumption; ir-

rigation withdrew 61.748 mgd and consumed 61.748 mgd; golf courses withdrew

34.844 mgd and consumed the same amount; institutions withdrew 15.803 mgd and

consumed 1.586 mgd; and domestic users withdrew 128.490 mgd and consumed 12.857

mgd. A study of Figure 38 shows that these figures do not agree with USGS

estimates, being lower on withdrawals and higher in consumptive use. Table

III-22 indicates the Department's projections for 1980 and 1990. 5/


Table III-22
Pennsylvania Water Withdrawals and Consumptive Use,
1980 and 1990 in mgd


1980 1990
S Total Consump- I Total Consump-
Water tive Water tive
Type Use Use Losses Use Losses


Public: 1582.601 158.269 1764.406 176.464

Mineral: 175.650 12.844 199.375 14.548

Manuf.: 5124.798 383.087 5489.254 416.943

Power: 10411.737 300.512 8995.066 453.113

Livestock: 54.481 40.864 62.603 46.932

Irrigation: 290.925 290.925 400.426 400.426

Golf Course: 38.348 38.348 41.817 41.817

Institution: 18.019 1.808 19.333 1.936

Domestic: 146.804 14.688 177.823 17.784

Total: 17843.363 1241.345 17150.103 1569.963


--









174



The Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Resources (DER) estimates,

when extended to 2000, indicate a consumptive use in that year of 1.9 bgd and

total water withdrawals for that year of 16.5 bgd.


Water Problems


Many areas of Pennsylvania have fallen victim to water pollution due to

acid mine drainage from coal mines. DER reported that some 63 communities in

the State are affected by water supply problems and a substantial number of

other areas face the possibility of shortages if additional supplies are not

developed. 4/ DER, also pointed out that the State:

....is a leader in the control of water pollution from industrial
sources. Currently, there are over 18,000 manufacturing plants in
the State, of which 6,000 use appreciable amounts of water in their
manufacturing operations. Of these 3,500 are connected to municipal
sewage treatment plants and an additional 1,365 have their own treat-
ment facilities. The remaining industries do not provide any treat-
ment for their discharges. In addition, many of the 1,365 industries
providing their own treatment do not operate their facilities properly
and occasionally their discharges affect water quality adversely. 4/

Other problems in the State are flooding, pollution by hazardous wastes,

and eutrophication. Erosion and sedimentation are prevalent throughout most of

Pennsylvania. 6/


Analysis


In 1975 the USGS reported that Pennsylvania's total water withdrawals were

18 bgd. Power cooling was responsible for about 62 percent of this or 11 bgd.

The trend in this sector will be very influential in future years. The National

Coal Association notes that 8 new power plants will be operational in the State

by 1988. In spite of this projected increase in facilities, Pennsylvania projects


175



a decline of about 8 percent in water use in this sector from 1970 to 1990.

This reduction could be achieved by modification of existing cooling practices

and the use of cooling towers or similar devices in all new plants. Thus the

trend obtained by extending Pennsylvania's 1990 projection to 2000 might be

attained. It is likely that this will be a lower limit, however. The year 2000

estimate obtained by applying WRC's national trend to Pennsylvania also seems

reasonable. It is somewhat higher than the State's estimate but the two are

not that far apart. Year 2000 estimates obtained using projected population

growth rates range from 18.8 to 20.1 bgd. These figures are close to the

others just discussed. On the other hand, the NWC trend estimate for 2000 of

63 bgd appears way out of line even as a maximum guideline.


References


1. USDC, 1979.

2. BLM, 1976.

3. Encyclopedia Britannica. Volume 17. "Pennsylvania." Chicago. 1972.

4. Department of Environmental Resources. Programs and Planning for the
Management of the Water Resources of Pennsylvania. Harrisburg, Pennsylvania.
November 1971.

5. Letter from C.H. McConnell, Deputy Secretary of Resources Management.
Department of Environmental Resources. Harrisburg, PA. March 10,1978.

6. U.S. Water Resources Council. The Nation's Water Resources 1975-2000.
U.S. Gov't. Print. Off., Washington, D.C. December 1978.


Rhode Island


Introduction


Rhode Island is the smallest State (land area 1,049 square miles) but it has

one of the highest average annual levels of precipitation (42 inches). 1/








176



The estimated 1980 population is 961,000. 2/ Water quality is the State's

principal problem.


Projected Trends


Water used in Rhode Island in 1975 was 480 mgd with an almost negigible

amount, 14 mgd, being consumed. Power cooling was the largest withdrawal

sector, accounting for 330 mgd or 69 percent of the total. All of the water

used in power cooling was saline. Self-supplied industries accounted for

about 30 mgd, rural water uses and irrigation each used about 5 mgd, and public

water supply systems withdrew 110 mgd. No projections of water use to the

year 2000 were available. Figure 39 displays the WRC and NWC national trends

as they apply to Rhode Island data.


Water Problems


Water pollution is extensive in the State. Both point and non-point

sources are culprits. Eutrophication is also a problem and flooding must be

reckoned with in several areas.


Analysis



The major water using sector appears destined to continue its dominance

to the year 2000. Another electric generating plant is anticipated before

the end of 1988 (according to the National Coal Association) and this will add

to the State's already large cooling water requirements. The availability of

sea water suggests that the continued growth in water use may be accommodated

by saline water.

Using the population projections of the Bureau of the Census as guides, a


Historic Data (USGS)


0.1 1-


110.


WRC (1975)
O-, year 2000= 155% of
0I 0 |0 year 1970 (0.02 bgd)
50 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year


1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year


Figure 39. Rhode Island Water Withdrawals and Consumptive Use
(Actual 1950- 1975, Projected 1975 2000)








178



projected year 2000 fresh water withdrawal of about 180 mgd is obtained. This

is in close agreement with the WRC trend figure of 160 mgd. Applying the same

rate of growth to total water use yields a year 2000 estimate of about 590 mgd.

This figure does not account for any significant increase in once-through cool-

ing and is likely to be too low. If power cooling uses doubled by 2000, then

an estimate of total water withdrawals of about 850 mgd would result. This is

below the NWC trend figure of 1.43 bgd but either of these figures could serve

as upper limit estimates. Consumptive use may be expected to increase slightly

by 2000 but this is not a problem in Rhode Island.

References


1. BLM, 1976.

2. USDC, 1979.

3. U.S. Water Resources Council. The Nation's Water Resources 1975-2000.
U.S. Gov't. Print. Off., Washington, D.C. December 1978.


South Carolina

Introduction


South Carolina is favored with an ample supply of clean, fresh water. Her

water resources, except in a few troubled areas, are still of reasonably good

quality. In 1976, 172 public water systems were serving a population of 1,697,645

and using 311,141,097 gallons of water per day. 1/ In the Water Use Inventory

of 1970 (Water Resources Commission, 1970), 154 systems were inventoried with a

total water use of 302,000,000 gallons per day. The amount of water use in 1976

showed an increase of 3 percent during this six year period.


1.0Historic Data (USGS)
Historic Data (USGS)


0-0--0--0-- WRC (1975)
year 2000= 155% of
I I year 1970 (0.27 bgd)
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year


Historic Data (USGS)
10 O j NWC (mid-projection)
100 year 2000 = 314% of
year 1970 (10.6 bgd)
8 0 > (All water)


6 -


4 -- Freshwater
0-0-0-0O WRC (1975) year
2 2000= 103% of
S Frs.h year 1970 (3.4 bgd)
(Freshwater)

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year


Figure 40. South Carolina Water Withdrawals and Consumptive Use
(Actual 1950- 1975, Projected 1975 2000)








180



Projected Trends


South Carolina has a total of 503 water supply systems. Industries in the

State operated 239 of these and used about 1.1 bgd in 1976. 3/ In addition,

municipal systems used 312 mgd and water districts accounted for about 55 mgd.

The total average daily water used for all categories exclusive of power cooling

was about 1.5 bgd in 1976. 1/

In 1975 the USGS reported that South Carolina withdrew a total of 5.8 bgd.

Of this amount, 280 mgd were consumptively used. Power cooling was the largest

sector, accounting for about 84 percent of all water withdrawn, or 4.9 bgd

(Figure 40). Since South Carolina is a coastal State, it is surprising that

only about 8 mgd of saline water were used for cooling purposes in 1975. The

National Coal Association reports that 11 new power plants are to be operational

in the State by 1988. This indicates that growth in the steam electric sector

will continue and, depending upon the cooling mode, may be very substantial.

Projections of water use to the year 2000 were not available although some

scattered projections to the year 1980 were made in a 1977 study. 3/


Water Problems


Eutrophication is widespread in South Carolina and point source pollution

is also a problem, especially in coastal areas. Some saline water intrusion

occurs and flooding, erosion and sedimentation are other issues of concern.


Analysis


South Carolina has numerous power generating facilities and, considering

the 11 new plants that are virtual certainties before the end of 1988, it appears

that sizeable increases in water use in this sector are likely by 2000. In this


I181


respect, the NWC trend figure of 10.6 bgd might be low. Using projected popu-

lation growth rates as measures, total water withdrawals in 2000 could range

from about 7 to 8 bgd. Even if cooling towers were used for all new plants, it

appears unlikely that water use in 2000 would be less than about 7 bgd. The

future uater use picture will be strongly influenced by expansion of electric

Generating facilities and the nature of cooling techniques employed.


References


1. South Carolina Water Resources Commission. Municipal and Industrial Water
Lise in South Carolina. Report No. 127. Columbia, South Carolina.
August 1977.

2. USl[ 1979.

3. South Carolina Water Resources Commission. Letter with data from C.L. Brooks.
October 22, 1979.

A. U.S. Water Resources Council. The Nation's Water Resources 1975-2000.
U.S. Gov't. Print. Off., Washington, D.C. December 1978.



- South Dakota


Introduction


The Coyote State plays host to 674,000 residents (1980 estimate).1/ Of the

75,955 square miles which comprise the State, 1,091 square miles are surface

Waters. 13/ The Missouri River system drains almost the entire area.

Corn sL the main agricultural crop although wheat, cattle, hogs, sheep and

pool production are significant industries. Irrigation is not extensive. The

PShe Dam unich supplies the James River Valley is the largest Federal reclama-

tion project in the State. 3/

Uranium, stone, cement, clay, lithium, gold, and beryllium concentrate are

talng the most important minerals mined. In fact, the State leads the nation in







182


gold production and is second in the production of beryllium concentrate. 3/

Projected Trends


In 1975 the total water withdrawals in South Dakota amounted to 550 mgd.
Irrigation accounted for 330 mgd, rural water use 120 mgd and public water
systems 58 mgd. Of the total, 300 mgd were consumed. No State projections
were available. It is considered, however, that the rate of growth in all
sectors will be slow and that the WRC trend line shown on Figure 41 is a
reasonable low level indicator of what might be expected in the future.

Water Problems


The State is blessed with an abundant supply of surface water stored be-

hind a series of dams. There is, however, a problem of distribution to points
of beneficial use.
Only along the central portion of the southern border of the State is the

surface water supply inadequate. 5/ Surface water pollution from point sources
occurs in the northeast while eutrophication and ground water pollution are found
in the southwest and northeast sectors of the State. 5/ The west central part
of South Dakota has water quality problems and in certain areas this is directly
attributable to saline water. Flooding is a problem in the south central por-
tion and erosion and sedimentation prevail along the southern border. 5/

Analysis


Projected population growth for South Dakota ranges from a small decline to

about a 22 percent increase from 1975 to 2000. A year 2000 total water with-
drawal of about 670 mgd would result if the maximum rate of population increase


WRC (1975)
year 2000 = 155% of
year 1970 (0.38 bgd)


Historic Data (USGS)
(Freshwater)


1.0 H


) NWC (mid-projection)
year 2000 = 314% of
year 1970 (1.88 bgd)
(All water)






,o


-O 0- 0- 0 -WRC (1975) year
0.5 2000=103% of
year 1970 (0.62 bgd)
(Freshwater)

Irrigation .

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year


Figure 41. South Dakota Water Withdrawals and Consumptive Use
(Actual 1950 1975, Projected 1975 2000)








184


projected for the State was used as an indication of growth in the water use

sector. This figure compares very favorably with the 620 mgd estimate arrived

at by using WRC's national trend. Since the major water using sector is irri-

gation, the year 2000 level of use will be strongly influenced by any major

increases or decreases in water use in that sector. The NWC trend estimate of

1.88 bgd is probably too high even for an upper limit but the WRC figure is

probably a good indicator of a lower limit of growth.


References


1. USDC, 1979.

2. BLM, 1976.

3. Encyclopedia Britannica. Volume 20. "South Dakota." Chicago. 1972.

4. South Dakota Department of Natural Resources Development. South Dakota
Water Plan. Volume II-E. Sections 1 and 2. January 1976.

5. U.S. Water Resources Council. The Nation's Water Resources 1975-2000.
U.S. Gov't. Print. Off., Washington, D.C. December 1978.


Tennessee


Introduction


Tennesse, lying in the south central portion of the United States, comprised

41,328 square miles, 1/ 878 of which are surface waters. 2/ The population

estimate in 1980 was 4,345,000 people. 3/

Manufacturing is the backbone of the State's economy, among which is the

production of chemicals, electrical machinery, food, apparel, fabricated metals

and primary metals. Paper and allied products rank high. Cotton and tobacco are

the leading agricultural crops while cattle breeding and Tennessee walking horse

breeding are also staples in the economy. 4/


1 185



Projected Trends

In 1975 Tennessee water withdrawals were 7,600 mgd and consumption was 275

..d (see Figure 42). In that same year an estimated 19,000 acres were irrigated

Some 8.6 mgd. Thermoelectric power withdrew 5,800 mgd in 1975 and self-

gpplied industrial users withdrew 1,300 mgd while consuming only 7 mgd.


i Water Problems


SKey water problems in the State include a declining level of ground water,

i4ensive point source pollution of surface waters, significant eutrophication,

A.d ground water pollution. In the northeast corner of the State water quality

,Is threatened. Surface coal mining with its associated water quality problems

becurs in eastern Tennessee. Flooding, erosion and sedimentation also occur

Throughout a significant portion of the State. 4/ Drainage is a problem in the

;yescern sector of Tennessee.


:i.,( ~Analysis

S ennessee's major water user has been steam electric cooling, 5.8 bgd or

Ibout 77 percent of the total water use in 1975. The National Coal Association's

F4mojection that 7 new power plants will be in operation before 1988, suggests

t this sector will retain its dominance to the year 2000. Although no State

tImates of water use in 2000 were available, a population trend indicator

ielded a year 2000 figure of total water use of about 9.1 bgd, This is higher

than the estimate obtained by applying WRC's national trend to the Tennessee

*b ta but tt appears to be reasonable if no large increases in once-through

oWoling occur. The NWC trend estimate of 20 bgd might be a rough upper limit

i)|ldellne, especially if the anticipated new power plants use flow-through

. *tooling.













1.0 -
Historic Data (USGS)


1950


I I


187



References


00_-0- )-- WRC (1975)
S --year 2000 = 155% of
year 1970 (0.3 bgd)


1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year

NWC (mid-projection)
year 2000 = 314% of
year 1970 (20 bgd)
(All water)


Historic Data (USGS)
(Freshwater)
10


8 -


6 -


4-


2 ri


1950 1955


-O0-0-o0-o---


I I I I


- WRC (1975) year
2000 =103% of
year 1970 (6.6 bgd)
(Freshwater)


1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year









Figure 42. Tennessee Water Withdrawals and Consumptive Use
(Actual 1950 1975, Projected 1975 2000)


1. BLM, 1976.

2. Encyclopedia Britannica. Volume 21. "Tennessee." Chicago. 1972.

3. USDC, 1979.

4. U.S. Water Resources Council. The Nation's Water Resources 1975-2000.
U.S. Gov't. Print. Off., Washington, D.C. December 1978.


Texas

Introduction


Texas has a land mass of 262,134 square miles 1/ within which a fast-

. growing population of 13,098,000 people reside. 2/ There are some 4,369 square

miles of surface water within the State's border, and its coastline runs about

624 miles. 3/ Annual precipitation fluctuates from 8 to 56 inches depending on

the region in the State. 4/

Texas is an important cotton, cotton-seed, rice, commercial vegetable,

grapefruit and sorghum grain producer. In addition, petroleum is a key factor

Sin the State's economy. In fact, Texas is the leading mineral producer in the

nation; she ranks second in sulfur, helium, magnesium, common salt and bromine

production; third in cement, clays, vermiculite and stone production, and

Fourth in gypsum, talc, soapstone and pyrophyllite production. 3/


Projected Trends


In 1975 Texas withdrew about 29 bgd which included 5.1 bgd of saline water.

SOf the total, 13 bgd or 45 percent was consumptively used (Figure 43). The dis-

tribution of water use in 1975 (USGS) was as follows: power cooling 41 percent,

S comprised of 8.9 bgd fresh water and 2.8 bgd saline water; irrigation, 12 bgd of


I i '








188



which 11 bgd was consumed; self-supplied industry, 880 mgd fresh and 2,400 mgd

saline; rural water use 300 mgd; and public water systems accounted for 1.7 bgd

The Texas Water Development Board estimated State water use in 1974. 6/ Their

figures along with projections to 2030 are given in Table III-23 and are shown

on Figure 43.


Table III-23
Projected Water Use For Texas6
(Requirements in thousands of acre-feet)



1974
Water Use Category Surface Groundwater 2000 2020 2030

Municipal 962.7 968.2 4,395.4 6,375.4 7,733.5

Livestock 168.2 127.9 377.5 439.1 470.2

Manufacturing 1,112.6 486.4 2,755.2 6,035.4 9,290.4

Steam Electric Power 148.3 52.8 1,055.7 1,474.9 1,768.7

Irrigation a 2,680.7 10,404.4 7,614.4 6,484.1 6,027.5

Mining I 48.3 178.7 308.4 335.1 357.6
I II I
Total State 5,120.9 12,221.7 16,506.6 I 21,144.0 25,647.9
Water Use I
17,342.6b

Total State
Population I 11,991,500 18,275,900 25,580,4001 305,518

Agricultural
Requirement c 10,555.1 14,358.8 16.196

Total State
Requirement d 17,342.6 I 27061.7 35,502.8 41,844.

* Not applicable.
a/ Uses based upon existing or locally available supplies.
h/ Includes 2.7 thousand acre-feet of use for the national fish hatchery, Nueces Ril
Basin.
c/ Quantity of additional water necessary to develop potential project type irrigation
d/ Requirements do not include freshwater needs of the State's estuarine systems.


20
Historic Data (USGS)

15


10


I I I


Figure 43. Texas Water Withdrawals and Consumptive Use
(Actual 1950 1975, Projected 1975 2000)


.0-WRC (1975)
i year 2000 = 155% of
0 0--0 O year 1970 (15 bgd)


) 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year
NWC (mid-projection)
year 2000 =314% of
year 1970 (84.5 bgd)
S(All water)
Texas Dept. of Water
Resources (1977)
Historic Data (USGS) (Freshwater)









Freshwater
SF WRC (1975) year
Then-lct *(2000= 103% of
year 1970 (20 bgd)
:~ oY 'rtonLiock (Freshwater)




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