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Using HAZUS-MH and Arcgis for a Parcel-Based Case Study of the Effects of Sea Level Rise in the Tampa Bay Region with a ...

Permanent Link: http://ufdc.ufl.edu/UFE0045065/00001

Material Information

Title: Using HAZUS-MH and Arcgis for a Parcel-Based Case Study of the Effects of Sea Level Rise in the Tampa Bay Region with a Detailed Analysis of Residential Parcels in Pinellas County, Florida
Physical Description: 1 online resource (89 p.)
Language: english
Creator: Harrilal, Kenwyn D
Publisher: University of Florida
Place of Publication: Gainesville, Fla.
Publication Date: 2012

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords: 1 -- 100 -- 2 -- damage -- hazus-mh -- hurricane -- level -- meter -- property -- rise -- sea -- storm -- surge -- year
Urban and Regional Planning -- Dissertations, Academic -- UF
Genre: Urban and Regional Planning thesis, M.A.U.R.P.
bibliography   ( marcgt )
theses   ( marcgt )
government publication (state, provincial, terriorial, dependent)   ( marcgt )
born-digital   ( sobekcm )
Electronic Thesis or Dissertation

Notes

Abstract: This thesis sets out to investigate the potential effects of sea level rise on the Tampa Bay region, with an emphasis on Pinellas County. Two software programs wereutilized in conducting the analysis: Hazus-MH to run natural disaster simulations and ArcGIS to run data analysis. First, there is an outline of the warning signs andimplications of how sea level rise could affect the Tampa Bay region. Subsequently, instructions for conducting a sea level rise analysis in Hazus-MH and running the necessary analyst tools in ArcGIS are provided. The sea level rise maps generated during the analysis vividly demonstrate how sea level rise could affect the Tampa Bay region. Within the regional analysis, empirical analysis focused on Pinellas County also supports the visual data. From the baseline model, the number of total parcels and single-family parcels affected increases dramatically, and the incremental increase is relatively consistent. Total parcels increased an average of 46,130 parcels (average 32% increase) for each model and single-family parcels increased an average of 25,874 parcels (average 38.5% increase) for each model. Furthermore, as the parcels increased, the total projected cost wasconsistent with similar increases. Of primary concern during a significant storm – particularly with the continuing trend of sea level rise – is the protection of people and property. The conclusions drawn from this analysis offer recommendations for evacuation planning. Finally, this thesis concludes that educating the public on the risks they face in the event of sea level rise will be the most effective mitigation strategy.
General Note: In the series University of Florida Digital Collections.
General Note: Includes vita.
Bibliography: Includes bibliographical references.
Source of Description: Description based on online resource; title from PDF title page.
Source of Description: This bibliographic record is available under the Creative Commons CC0 public domain dedication. The University of Florida Libraries, as creator of this bibliographic record, has waived all rights to it worldwide under copyright law, including all related and neighboring rights, to the extent allowed by law.
Statement of Responsibility: by Kenwyn D Harrilal.
Thesis: Thesis (M.A.U.R.P.)--University of Florida, 2012.
Local: Adviser: Zwick, Paul D.
Local: Co-adviser: Schneider, Richard H.

Record Information

Source Institution: UFRGP
Rights Management: Applicable rights reserved.
Classification: lcc - LD1780 2012
System ID: UFE0045065:00001

Permanent Link: http://ufdc.ufl.edu/UFE0045065/00001

Material Information

Title: Using HAZUS-MH and Arcgis for a Parcel-Based Case Study of the Effects of Sea Level Rise in the Tampa Bay Region with a Detailed Analysis of Residential Parcels in Pinellas County, Florida
Physical Description: 1 online resource (89 p.)
Language: english
Creator: Harrilal, Kenwyn D
Publisher: University of Florida
Place of Publication: Gainesville, Fla.
Publication Date: 2012

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords: 1 -- 100 -- 2 -- damage -- hazus-mh -- hurricane -- level -- meter -- property -- rise -- sea -- storm -- surge -- year
Urban and Regional Planning -- Dissertations, Academic -- UF
Genre: Urban and Regional Planning thesis, M.A.U.R.P.
bibliography   ( marcgt )
theses   ( marcgt )
government publication (state, provincial, terriorial, dependent)   ( marcgt )
born-digital   ( sobekcm )
Electronic Thesis or Dissertation

Notes

Abstract: This thesis sets out to investigate the potential effects of sea level rise on the Tampa Bay region, with an emphasis on Pinellas County. Two software programs wereutilized in conducting the analysis: Hazus-MH to run natural disaster simulations and ArcGIS to run data analysis. First, there is an outline of the warning signs andimplications of how sea level rise could affect the Tampa Bay region. Subsequently, instructions for conducting a sea level rise analysis in Hazus-MH and running the necessary analyst tools in ArcGIS are provided. The sea level rise maps generated during the analysis vividly demonstrate how sea level rise could affect the Tampa Bay region. Within the regional analysis, empirical analysis focused on Pinellas County also supports the visual data. From the baseline model, the number of total parcels and single-family parcels affected increases dramatically, and the incremental increase is relatively consistent. Total parcels increased an average of 46,130 parcels (average 32% increase) for each model and single-family parcels increased an average of 25,874 parcels (average 38.5% increase) for each model. Furthermore, as the parcels increased, the total projected cost wasconsistent with similar increases. Of primary concern during a significant storm – particularly with the continuing trend of sea level rise – is the protection of people and property. The conclusions drawn from this analysis offer recommendations for evacuation planning. Finally, this thesis concludes that educating the public on the risks they face in the event of sea level rise will be the most effective mitigation strategy.
General Note: In the series University of Florida Digital Collections.
General Note: Includes vita.
Bibliography: Includes bibliographical references.
Source of Description: Description based on online resource; title from PDF title page.
Source of Description: This bibliographic record is available under the Creative Commons CC0 public domain dedication. The University of Florida Libraries, as creator of this bibliographic record, has waived all rights to it worldwide under copyright law, including all related and neighboring rights, to the extent allowed by law.
Statement of Responsibility: by Kenwyn D Harrilal.
Thesis: Thesis (M.A.U.R.P.)--University of Florida, 2012.
Local: Adviser: Zwick, Paul D.
Local: Co-adviser: Schneider, Richard H.

Record Information

Source Institution: UFRGP
Rights Management: Applicable rights reserved.
Classification: lcc - LD1780 2012
System ID: UFE0045065:00001


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1 USING H AZUS MH AND ARCGIS FOR A PARCEL BASED CASE STUDY OF THE EFFECTS OF SEA LEVEL RISE IN THE TAMPA BAY REGION WITH A DETAILED ANALYSIS OF RESIDENTIAL PARCELS IN PINELLAS COUNTY, FLORIDA By KENWYN DIEGO HARRILAL A THESIS PRESENTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL OF THE UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF ARTS IN URBAN AND REGIONAL PLANNING UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA 2012

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2 2012 Kenwyn Diego Harrilal

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3 To my parents and wife

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4 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I would like to acknowledge and thank Dr. Paul Zwick, for his guidance and supervision of this researc h. I would also like to thank Dr. Richard Schneider for his insight and guidance throughout this research I would also like to acknowledge my friends and family for their support through this process. Most of all, I would like to thank my wife for her support through this process a nd her role as editor in chief.

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5 TABLE OF CONTENTS page ACKNOWLEDG MENTS ................................ ................................ ................................ .. 4 LIST OF FIGURES ................................ ................................ ................................ .......... 7 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ................................ ................................ ............................. 9 ABSTRACT ................................ ................................ ................................ ................... 10 CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION ................................ ................................ ................................ .... 12 Understanding Hazards ................................ ................................ .......................... 12 Study Area ................................ ................................ ................................ .............. 13 Tampa Bay Geographic Location ................................ ................................ ..... 14 Pinellas County Geographic Location ................................ .............................. 14 Pinellas County Demographics ................................ ................................ ........ 15 Sea Level Rise Planning ................................ ................................ ......................... 15 2 LITERATURE REVIEW ................................ ................................ .......................... 18 The Effects of a Natural Disaster ................................ ................................ ............ 18 Hurricane Hazard ................................ ................................ ............................. 18 Storm Surge Hazard ................................ ................................ ......................... 19 Wind Hazard ................................ ................................ ................................ ..... 19 Sea Level Rise Hazard ................................ ................................ ........................... 20 The Importance of Mitigation Planning ................................ ................................ ... 22 Hazus Modeling in Mitigation ................................ ................................ .................. 24 Project Data Sources ................................ ................................ .............................. 25 Hazus MH Analy sis ................................ ................................ .......................... 25 ArcGIS Spatial Analysis ................................ ................................ .................... 25 Property Loss Analysis ................................ ................................ ..................... 26 3 ME THODOLOGY ................................ ................................ ................................ ... 29 Hazus Models ................................ ................................ ................................ ......... 29 Model 1 Wind Grid (100 Year Storm) ................................ ................................ ... 29 Wind Modeling ................................ ................................ ................................ ........ 29 Model 2 Coastal Flood (100 Year Storm) ................................ ............................. 29 Coastal Flood Modeling ................................ ................................ .......................... 30 Model 3 Coastal Flood with Sea Level Rise (100 Year Storm Surge Plus SLR) .. 30 Sea Level Rise Modeling ................................ ................................ .................. 30 100 Year Wind Grid Analysis ................................ ................................ ........... 32 32 100 Year Storm Surge Depth Analysis ................................ ............................. 33

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6 100 Year Storm Surge with 2M Sea Level Rise ................................ ............... 34 4 ANALYSIS/RESULTS ................................ ................................ ............................. 35 Data Analysis Parameters ................................ ................................ ...................... 35 Regional Analysis Diagrams ................................ ................................ ................... 36 100 Year Wind Grid Tampa Bay Region ................................ ........................ 36 100 Year Storm Surge Tampa Bay Region ................................ .................... 37 100 Year Storm Surge with 1 & 2 Meter SLR Tampa Bay Region ................. 37 Modeling SLR in Pinellas Coun ty ................................ ................................ ............ 38 100 Year Wind Grid Pinellas County ................................ ............................. 38 Analyzing Residential Property Loss ................................ ................................ 39 Storm Surge Analysis ................................ ................................ ................ 40 Model 1 100 Year Storm Surge Pinellas County ................................ .. 41 Model 2 100 Year Storm Surge with 1 Meter SLR Pinellas County ....... 41 Model 3 100 Year Storm Surge with 2 Meter SLR Pinellas County ...... 42 5 CONCLUSIONS ................................ ................................ ................................ ..... 55 Understanding the Analysis ................................ ................................ .................... 55 Regional Analysis Conclusions ................................ ................................ ........ 55 Pinel las County Analysis Conclusions ................................ .............................. 56 Analysis Conclusions ................................ ................................ ....................... 57 6 RECOMMENDATIONS ................................ ................................ ........................... 59 Preparing for Disaster ................................ ................................ ............................. 59 Evacuation for Flooding and Wind ................................ ................................ .... 59 When Should Citizens Evacuate ................................ ................................ ...... 60 Planning for Sea Level Rise ................................ ................................ ............. 61 Current Planning Efforts ................................ ................................ .......................... 62 Political Implications ................................ ................................ ......................... 62 Possible Future Policies ................................ ................................ ................... 63 Additional Research ................................ ................................ ......................... 64 APPENDIX A ADDITIONAL HAZUS MH SUMMARY REPORTS ................................ ................. 65 B DETAILED METHODOLOGY ................................ ................................ ................. 77 REFERENCE LIST ................................ ................................ ................................ ........ 84 BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH ................................ ................................ ............................ 89

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7 LIST OF FIGURES Figure page 1 1 Tampa Bay Region Political Map ................................ ................................ ........ 16 1 2 Pinellas County Political Map ................................ ................................ ............. 17 2 1 Wind and Pressure Components of Hurricane Storm Surge .............................. 26 2 2 Hurr icane Strength Based On Quadrants ................................ ........................... 27 2 3 Saffir Simpson Scale ................................ ................................ .......................... 27 2 4 Greenhouse Effect Diagram ................................ ................................ ............... 28 2 5 Sea Level Rise vs CO 2 ppm Levels ................................ ................................ .... 28 3 1 100 Year Wind Grid Analysis ................................ ................................ .............. 32 3 2 100 Year Storm Surge Depth Analysis ................................ ............................... 33 3 3 100 Year Storm Surge with a 2 Meter SLR ................................ ........................ 34 4 1 100 Year Probabilistic Storm Track ................................ ................................ .... 43 4 2 100 Year Wind Grid Tampa Bay Region ................................ ............................ 44 4 3 100 Year Storm Surge Tampa Bay Region ................................ ........................ 45 4 4 100 Year Storm Surge with 1 & 2 Meter SLR Tampa Bay Region ................... 46 4 5 Wind Speed Statistics ................................ ................................ ......................... 46 4 6 General Model for Wind Grid Mo del ................................ ................................ ... 47 4 7 100 Year Wind Grid Pinellas County ................................ ................................ .. 47 4 8 Building Damage by General Occupancy ................................ ........................... 4 8 4 9 Building Damage by Count by General Occupancy ................................ ............ 49 4 1 0 Building Damage by Building Type ................................ ................................ ..... 50 4 11 Direc t Economic Losses for Buildings ................................ ................................ 51 4 12 Storm Surge Modified Scale ................................ ................................ ............... 51 4 13 100 Year Storm Surge Pinellas County ................................ .............................. 52

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8 4 14 100 Year Flooding JV Statistical Statistics ................................ ......................... 52 4 15 100 Year Storm Surge with 1 Meter SLR Pinellas County .............................. 53 4 16 100 Year Flooding with 1 Meter of SLR JV Statistics ................................ ......... 53 4 17 100 Year Storm Surge with 2 Meter SLR Pinellas County .............................. 54 4 18 100 Year Flooding with 2 Meters of SLR JV Statistics ................................ ....... 54 5 1 Total Affected Parcels by Model Comparison ................................ ..................... 58 5 2 Projected Loss of Tax Revenue in Pinellas County ................................ ............ 58

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9 LIST OF ABBREVIATION S CO 2 Carbon Dioxide DEM Digital Elevation Model FEMA Federal Emergency Management Agency FGDL Florida Geographic Data Library FIMA Feder al Insurance and Mitigation Administration FIPS Federal Information Processing Standard FIS Flood Insurance Study IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change JV Just Value MPH Miles Per Hour NOAA National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration PPM Parts Pe r Million SLR Sea Level Rise UN United Nations USEPA United State s Environmental Protection Agency USGS United States Geological Survey

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10 Abstract Of Thesis Presented To The Graduate School Of The University Of Florida In Partial Fulfillment Of The Requirem ents For The Degree Of Master Of Arts In Urban And Regional Planning USING HAZUS MH AND ARCGIS FOR A PARCEL BASED CASE STUDY OF THE EFFECTS OF SEA LEVEL RISE IN THE TAMPA BAY REGION WITH A DETAILED ANALYSIS OF RESIDENTIAL PARCELS IN PINELLAS COUNTY, FLORI DA By Kenwyn Diego Harrilal December 2012 Chair: Paul Zwick Co c hair: Richard Schneider Major: Urban and Regional Planning This thesis sets out to investigate the potential effects of sea level rise on the Tampa Bay region with an emphasis on Pinella s County. Two software programs were utilized in conducting the analysis : Hazus MH to run natural disaster simulations and ArcGIS to run data analysis. First, there is an outline of the warning signs and implications of how sea level rise could affect the Tampa Bay region. Subsequently, instructions for conduct ing a sea level rise analysis in Hazus MH and run ning the necessary analyst tools in ArcGIS are provided T he sea level rise maps generated during the analysis vividly demonstrate how sea level rise c oul d affect the Tampa Bay region. Within the regional analysis, empirical analysis focused on Pinellas County also supports the visual data. From the baseline model the number of total parcels and single family parcels affected increases dramatically and the incremental increase is relatively consistent. Total parcels increased an average of 46,130 parcels (average 32% increase) for each model and

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11 single family parcels increased an average of 25,874 parcels (average 38.5% increase) for each model. Further more, a s the parcels increased, the total projected cost was consistent with similar increases. Of primary concern during a significant storm particularly with the continuing trend of sea level rise i s the protection of people and property. The conclu sions drawn from this analysis offer r ecommendations for evacuation planning Finally, this thesis concludes that educating the public on the risks they face in the event of sea level rise will be the most effective mitigation strategy.

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12 CHAPTER 1 INTRO DUCTION Understanding Hazards The Earth is an ever changing complex system This complex system is dynamic and respond s to changes within the system, however they are created natural or man made These changes can be relatively abrupt, slow paced, or non linear. An example i n the geological system would be the r ; this process can generate earthquake responses that are not easily predicted. However, one element of s that is always under close observation is we ather. Meteorology on Earth is a difficult process for humans to predict precisely on a lon g term model; anything beyond 5 to 7 days is subject to fluctuations in its accuracy (Williams, 2005) When humans add or subtract resources from our current envir onment, the Earth will have responses that result in both positive and negative consequences Using the resources of the Earth in reprocessed formats such as burning fossil fuels or changing the eco system through development present a potential threat f or aggressive and frequent weather hazards referred to as hazard from now on A hazard can be defined as follows, A condition with the potential to cause injury, illness, or death or personnel (people); damage to or loss of equipment or p roperty; or miss ion degradation (U.S. Department of Defense, 2005) Additionally, the Environmental Hazards: A ssessing Risk and Reducing Disaster defines hazard as more extreme events that directly threaten human life and property by means of acute physical or chemical trauma on a scale sufficient to cause a (Keith 2004 p.8). The two definitions combined give an accurate idea of the scale and scope of a haz ard. For this thesis, the hazard definition will be defined as

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13 both natural and human caused demonstrating the significant loss potential for both life and property (FEMA) The hazard that will be examined for this thesis will be a natural one: a hurricane. The impact a hurricane can have on a state, county, or community can be expone ntial when preparation is insufficient Developing plans to handle concer ns before, during, and after a storm are critical to success in both saving lives and preparing property. Providing citizens with informati on regarding the potential for loss and educatin g them on how to prepare for hazardous situations can be the key to helping minimalize the losses that the community may suff er. This thesis will examine the affect of a hurricane physically on the Tampa Bay Region (Pinellas, Manatee, and Hillsborough Counties) and how sea level rise (SLR) can exacerbate a storm s potential damage. This thesis will examine the region as a whole, but will pay particular attention to Pinellas County to develop estimates on the d amage expected. A 100 year storm (Hurricane) could affect Pinellas County with wind speeds of up to 121 miles per hour and develop a storm surge of more than 16 feet. Considering the effects of a hurricane disaster (100 year storm), this thesis attempts to analyze in detail the potential losses of single family housing in a demonstration of the potential impact of SLR. Study Area The study area of this thesis is Tampa Bay Florida and a breakout section of the region, which is Pinellas County, Florida Tam pa Bay was selected because of its coastal location, valuable natural resources, and because a realistic hurricane scenario could be run on the county. Additionally the focus on Pinellas C ounty was chosen because in one Hazus MH model, the average wind sp eed in Pinellas County is predicted as the highest wind levels produced by a 100 year storm in the Tampa Bay

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14 Region. Lastly, the data and information available for this area makes this analysis feasible to perform. Floridian coastal counties have a realist ic threat of a hurricane landing on its shores during hurricane season Although the threat may not be realized in a few years, or even decades the risk is always present The map of the Tampa Bay Region is Figure 1 1 and Pinellas County is Figure 1 2, wh ich are the study area s Tampa Bay Geographic Location The total area of the Tampa Bay region is 2,770 square miles (both land and water) and is composed of the following: Pinellas County: 608 square miles Manatee County: 893 square miles Hillsborough Cou nty: 1266 square miles The Tampa Bay region is located on the west coast of Florida with its western border facing the Gulf of Mexico and the remaining borders facing the surrounding counties. Political boundaries for the Tampa Bay region include the f ollowing : West: the Gulf of Mexico North: Pasco County South: Sarasota Co unty East: Polk, Hardee, and Desoto Counties These boundaries are depicted in Figure 1 1 Pinellas County Geographic Location The total area of Pinellas County is 273.80 square mi le s in 2010. The County is 38 miles long from tip to tip, and is 15 miles wide at its broadest point. The Federal Information Processing Standard ( FIPS ) Code for this county is 103 (Quick Facts, Census 2010). Political boundaries for Pinellas County inclu de the following : West: the Gulf of Mexico and Tampa Bay.

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15 North: Pasco County East: Hillsborough County These boundaries are depicted in Figure 1 2. Pinellas County has 24 incorporated municipalities. The area of Pinellas is in the Tampa St. Petersburg Clearwater, FL Metro Area. Based on the factfinder2 website, Pinellas County has 295 blocks, 290 census tracts, and 844 census block groups (U.S. Census Bureau, 2012) Pinellas County Demographics The population in Pinellas Co unty is 916,542 people, according to the 2010 Census There was a 0.5% decrease in the population of Pinellas County from the 921,482 residents according to the 2000 Census The average total households from 2006 2010 were 405,649 households with an avera ge person per household rate of 2.21. The total housing unit in the county is about 503,634 units. Additionally, Pinellas County is the most densely populated county in Florida, with a population density of 3,347.5 persons per square mile in 2010 Sea Lev el Rise Planning Planning for sea level rise (SLR) poses challenging issues for many counties in it affects many other parties. A rise in sea level can cause an increa sed height in storm waves, which will create a stronger storm surge resulting in more areas that are vulnerable to storm surge damage. (State of Delaware, 2011) This thesis will address the concept of how SLR can affect storm surge i n the Tampa Bay region and specifically Pinellas County. On the regional level there will be an examination of how a current 100 year storm surge will affect the Tampa Bay region compared to a 1 meter and 2 meter sea level rise. Additionally th e wind component of the storm will be added

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16 to the mix to understand fully how the affects of a hurricane plus SLR will act on Tampa Bay. Empirically, this thesis will show the impact of SLR storm surge and wind from a hurricane using single family housing as an indicator. Running models to show the extent of flooding and predicted damage from wind on the s ingle family residential home will give a numerical understanding of possible damage. Figure 1 1. Tampa Bay Region Political Map (Harrilal, Tampa Bay Region Political Map, 2012)

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17 Figure 1 2. Pinellas County Political Map (Harrilal, Pinellas County Political Map, 2012)

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18 CHAPTER 2 LITERATURE REVIEW In accordance with the analysis an d review c onducted in this thesis C hapter 2 reviews disaster effects, the importance of mitigation, Hazus modeling as a mitigation tool, and understanding evacuation planning The Effects of a Natural Disaster The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) was esta blished in 1979 as an independent agency i n charge of disaster mitigation efforts follows: that as a nation we work together to build, sustain and improve our ca pability to prepare for, protect against, respond to, recover from and mitigate all hazards. (Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2012) FEMA characterizes a disaster in many forms, such as a hurricane, an earthquake, a tornado, a fire or hazardous spill an act of nature or an act of terrorism. (Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2012) The ex amples of hazards from the list above are categorized into two types: natural and technological. Specifically the list of natural disaster s includes earthquakes, landslides, volcano eruptions, floods, tsunamis, and hurricanes. This thesis will focus on hurricane hazards and their effect on emergency planning, specifically evacuation planning. Hurricane Hazard Hurricane hazards bring destructive winds, storm sur ge, torrenti al rain, flooding, and tornados (USGS, 2006) A hurricane hazard is a form of tropical cyclone. A strong hurricane can generate storm surges along the coastlines in excess of 18 feet and winds that can exceed 150 miles per hour. These two speci fic threats wind and storm surge a re the main hazards that will underline this thesis analysis. This thesis will

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19 ex plore the various consequences of storm surge and wind from a hurricane on coastal communities. The issues dealing with impending hurrica ne threats will a lso be addressed, as well as how to deal with the migration of people during an evacuation. Storm Surge Hazard Storm surge is defined as, An abnormal rise of water generated by a storm, over and above the predicted astronomical tides. ( NOAA, 2012) A storm surge will occur when water is being pushed on and past the shoreline due to a hurricane s negative press ure as shown in the figure 2 1. Storm surges will cause damage along the coastline, both from the physical damage of th e moving wat er over the land, as well as th e prolonged flooding that can occur This damage suffered may cause the demolition of part or complete buildings either immediately or in the near future due to sustained damage. Damages could range from eroding buildings or highways, loss of lives, and destruction of vegetation or animals. Damages that maybe irreparable can be expected Wind Hazard Wind is one of the components that make hurricanes extremely dangerous. The strong hurricane force winds are dangerous to any thing within the storm s reach. Winds are able to damage any surficial structure such as buildings, mobile homes, or vegetation. Damage from wind can create more damage because of flying debris within the hurricane. The potential risk to high rise building s becomes amplified because wind speeds are increased as al titude increases Additionally, the winds are strongest in the northeast quadrant of the hurricane as depicted in F igure 2 2. As stated by the NOAA,

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20 Wind speed usually decreases significantly withi n 12 hours after landfall. Nonetheless, winds can stay above hurricane strength well inland (NOAA, 2012) Figure 2 3 discusses the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Scale and includes an approximate damage description, the possible wind levels, and the level of st orm surge expected. Sea Level Rise Hazard Sea level rise is defined as a mean rise in s ea level. (UN Atlas of the Oceans, 2010) The primary factor that is attributed with sea level rise is the concept of global warming. Globa l warming is broadly defined as the relatively recent accelerated increase in production of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ). CO 2 is t he main by product of using fo ssil fuels to power our world People may not believe in global warming or how it affects the global sea level, however the scientific evidence demonstrates that there is a correlation between sea level and CO 2 levels which is hard to ignore. Figure 2 4 depicts how in creasing the amount of CO 2 in our atmosphere pr oduces a warming effect on the E arth. T he r apid increase in CO 2 levels has allowed our planet to rapidly (in historical terms) increase in its over all global temperature. A rising global temperature affects the quantity of ocean water, increasing the volume of water from melting of glacier ice and melting of ice sheets (United States Environmental Protection Agency, 2012) Additionally, the thermal expansion of the water in oceans is affects the volume ; as water heats up it expands taking up more space. Some other fac tors to consider are the pumping of ground water for human use, impoundment in reservoirs, wetl and drainage, and deforestation. (Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2012)

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21 The effects from sea level rise are demonstrated in th e following examples (United States Environmental Protection Agency, 2012) : Erosion occurs along the shores and results in land loss. Additionally, the habitat that resides in coastal areas is also affected, such as coral reef s. When storms and flooding occur, the sea level rise increases the vulnerability of coastal areas and the population located in those areas. Shores are vulnerable because storms occur at higher bases of water and existing shore erosion cause no protection to the beach. Salt water intrusion is another effect of sea level rise. When sea level rise transpires, the level of the sea water table rises and brings the salty water on to the land. Once the water has evaporated, the residue will remain during dry pe riods. Consequently, high salinity occurs and adversely affects plants and animals that are sensitive to the salinity. T he average level of sea level rise in the world throughout 20 th century has been about 4.4 8.8 inches, while the U S has seen a sea lev el ri se of about 0.08 0.12 inches per year along most of the U S Atlantic and Gulf Coasts (FEMA) Currently a total accepted as a serious possibi lity. (Rahmstorf, 2012) recommends planning for as much as 1.5 meters (approximately 5 feet) of SLR (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, 2011) Other accounts demonstrate that SLR tracking at the upper range of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections, factoring in the ice loss from Greenland and Antarctica SLR by 2100 could hit the 2 meter mark (Cook, 2012) Another hi storical indicator that could indic ate that the sea level will rise is data fr om the last ice age. During th e last i ce age, carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) had risen to 300ppm, with a rise in sea level of 6 to 9 meters ( Figure 2 5) Currently CO 2 is at 390ppm and a ccording to history a 6 to 9 meter sea level rise would not be out of the question With these projected leve ls in mind, the problem becomes

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22 increasingly complex because over half of the nation s population lives on coastlines including residents Additionally nearly four million citizens already live within three feet of llars of infrastructure at risk. (Strauss, Ziemlinski, Weiss, & Overpeck, 2012) This level of threat is not limited to one specific area; both the east and west coasts are severely exposed to SLR damage. For an east coast example outside of Florida, residential structures within the current 100 year floodplain for New York City and N assau, Suffolk, and Westchester counties have already totaled an estimated value of over $125 billion (New York State Sea Level Rise Task Force, 2010) For a west coast example, a 1.4 meter SLR endangers approximately 480,000 p eople on the California coast from its Oregon border down to Mexico; assuming that population stays the same (Heberger, Cooley, Herrera, Gleick, & Moore, 2011) These are some examples of how vulnerable our coastlines truly are and why we need to develop strategies and policies to help mitigate the losses due to SLR. In addition to the immediate loss of buildings and infrastructure of an area, the additional loss of the tax revenue base in the medium and long term could cripp le government operating budgets. The Importance of Mitigation Planning Mitigation is defined as: the efforts undertaken to reduce the frequency or severity of loss. (Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology, 201 0) In the context of disaster, mitigation efforts cultivate the preparations needed for facing a possible natural disaster. The return on this effort is th at people in the areas predicted to be affected by a natural disaster can reduce their risk of dama ge to themselves and their property.

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23 Taking i nto consideration the importance of mitigation for citizens, FEMA has created a sub organization whose focus is disaster mitigation the Federal Insurance and Mitigation Administration (FIMA). This organizatio n s effort is focused on reducing damage to homes, businesses, schools, public buildings, and other important faciliti es due to natural disasters. s qualities to demonstrate the value of mitigation efforts to society which include (Federal Insurance and Mitigation Administration, 2012) : 1. Mitigation creates safe communities by reducing losses of life and property 2. Mitigation enables individuals and communities to recover more rapidly from disasters. 3. Mitigation lessens the financial impact of disasters on individuals, the Treasury, the State, tribal and local communities. Specifically, The State of Florida has the Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology, which highlights the importance of hu rricane mitigation in Florida (Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology, 2010) In the published document, Windstorm Mitigation Discounts Report (2010), the commission stated that besides having fewer injurie s and deaths from hurricanes the importance of windstorm mitigation is to stabilize and strengthen the insurance market in Florida. One o f the important processes in mitigation effort s is conduct ing risk assessments. A risk assessment examines the risk o f exposure to property of life for future disasters. Risk assessments are the basis for mitigation planning process and consist of four key steps enumerated below: 1. I dentifying ha zards, 2. Profiling hazard events,

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24 3. I nventory ing assets, and 4. E stimating losses (Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2006) Based on the key steps to p erforming a risk assessment, a hurricane simulation is needed to generate needed data As a user of t he software, Hazus MH, you can generate nationwide s imulation models of hurricanes to conduct a risk assessment for multiple hazards. Hazus Modeling in Mitigation According to FEMA, Hazus MH is a nationally applicable standardized methodology and software program that contains models for estimating potent ial losses from earthquakes, floods, and hurricane winds (FEMA, 2012) Hazus MH is a program that runs GIS software t o provide a visual estimation of the hazard s damage as well as calculate an a pproximate numerical estimate of damage. Hazus can be as detailed as estimating the physical damage for buildings, facilities, infrastructure, economic losses, and social impacts. Hazus MH is a useful application for conduc ting a general mitigation assessment, dealing with recovery efforts, emergency preparedness, and emergency services response. The State of Florida has been using Hazus MH as a to ol for risk assessment since it s first version in 1997, specifically for h urricane disaster simulations. Florida is a leade r in utilizing Hazus MH and is c ited as a good case study for best practices for Hazus MH utilization (FEMA, 2012) Additionally the State of Florida has demonstrated a commitm ent to using Hazus MH through the creation of t he Florida Hazus User Group in January 2006 to foster Hazus MH use.

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25 Currently Hazus MH is on version 2.1 (64 bit compliant only) and is compatible with Hazus MH still defaults to using the results of 2000 Census, this thesis utilizes the 2010 C ensus da ta during analysis to provide a more up to date and accurate simulation The complete data requirements to perform a Hazus MH assessment and the data needed for the ArcGIS spatial analyses are explained in the data section. Project Data Sources In this thesis data for performing the analysis are explained based on the order of the analysis steps: Hazus MH a nalysis ArcGIS spatial a nalysis P roperty loss analysis Hazus MH Analysis A Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and the stillwater elevations for Pinellas County will be utilized for the Hazus MH analysis First, a DEM map was obtained from Florida The Florida Geographic Data Library is a collection of Geospatial Data compiled by the University of Florida, GeoPlan Center with support (Florida Geographic Data Library ) Second, the Stillwater elevations data were obtained from t he Flood Insurance Study (FIS) for each county and additional data was provided by the Engineering and Technical Support Division, Department of Environment and Infrastructures (David A. Talhouk, personal email). ArcGIS Spatial Analysis The Hazus MH resul ts were incorporated into the next analysis sequence completed in ArcGIS Spatial Analyst. The resulting layers from Hazus MH are the 100

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26 year storm wind map, 100 year storm surge coastal flood ing map and the 100 year storm flood with sea level rise map s ( f or detailed maps, reference C hapter 3 ). Property Loss Analysis Lastly, data was added regarding the administrative boundaries and parcel data for Pinellas County that was accessed from the Florida Geographic Data Library (FGDL). Figure 2 1. Wind and Pre ssure Components of Hurricane Storm Surge (NOAA, 2012)

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27 Figure 2 2. Hurricane Strength Based On Quadrants (De Groot, Niblock, & Fausto, 2012) Figure 2 3. Saffir Simpson Scale (Adapted from (scioly.org, 2011) )

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28 Figure 2 4. Greenhouse Effect Diagram (National Park Service, 2012) Figure 2 5. Sea Level Rise vs CO 2 ppm Levels (Hearty & Kaufman, 2000) (Petit, 1999)

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29 CHAPTER 3 MET HODOLOGY Hazus Models C hapter 3 will explain how the Hazus MH software developed several models : the wind level projection for a 100 year storm, the coastal flood ing projections for a 100 year storm surge the combination of a 1 and 2 meter SLR with storm surge. C hapter 3 will also discuss some of the parameters Model 1 Wind Grid (100 Year Storm) Tropical storm force winds are powerful enough to cause substantial damage. Emergency managers typically plan evacuations to happen before the onset of winds at tropical storm force. Once winds reach hurricane force, they are strong enough to destroy buildings and mobile homes. Another dangerous element is the debris that can be picked up and launched as projectiles. Typical debris may include signs, roofing mate rial, siding, and small household items left outside (NOAA/National Weather Service, 2012) Hurricanes can have sustained wind gust s of more than 100 mph well in land. Additionally the stronger the hurricane the higher the su stained wind speed will be, causing those same projectiles to become increasingly dangerous. Wind Modeling The wind model (Figure 3 1) was generated using the hurricane option in Hazus MH This wind grid was developed with a 100 year storm index. Appendix B will discuss further the process of producing a wind grid and demonstrate the resulting wind raster. Model 2 Coastal Flood (100 Year Storm) 100 year storm or flood means an extreme condition of that magnitude has a 1 percent chance of happening in any year (U.S. Geological Survey, 2012)

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30 The effect of a 100 year flood is more severe to a particular location that recei ves reoccurring interval floods. For example, an area that receives regular interval flooding would hav e soil that could be saturated, which would retain less water and cause a free flowing stream which would lead to more damage. A 100 year storm will not always cause a 100 year flood; it will depend on the rainfall in the watershed region, soil saturation before the storm, and the relationship between the size of the watershed and the duration of the storm. The mitigation efforts for an area have to consider the probability of those components together to effectively estimate the results; Hazus MH is a tool to help with this analysis. Coastal Flood Modeling While the wind grid model (Figure 3 2) was generated using Hazus MH, the storm surge model was created using the flood option. This depth grid was developed with a 100 year storm index. Appendix B will d iscuss further the process of producing a flood depth grid and demonstrate the resulting flood depth raster. Model 3 Coastal Flood with Sea Level Rise (100 Year Storm Surge Plus SLR) Sea Level Rise Modeling Coastal flooding due to storm surge is some thing coastal counties have to face an y time there is a hurricane. T he final model s attempt to demonstrate how a 100 year storm surge c hange s with the addition of a 1 meter (3.28 feet) or a 2 meter (6.56 feet) sea level rise The 1 meter and 2 meter levels were selected based on their plausibility, as demonstrated in Chapter 2 ) A 1 meter SLR is listed as p robable by 2100 Additionally, the IPCC believes that at a 2 meter SLR is possible when consider ing unexpected ice melting. While the plausibility of a 2 meter increase is not a widely held belief as a researcher examining what a worst case scenario could do to the coastal

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31 region would be prudent in planning for mitigation Hazus HM does not specifically address a sea level rise simulation, nor does it h ave a formal option or process to generate a sea level rise flood grid. However, you are able to simulate a sea level rise by lowering the DEM and running a new scenario, which would in turn produce an artificial simulation of a sea level rise. The steps i n Appendix B are listed to create a sea level r ise adjusted grid. After the last step listed in the Appendix B you would have a DEM layer that has been adjusted for sea level rise and a simulated storm surge SLR polygon If you compared the two, you wo uld be able to see that the difference b etween the 100 year storm surge is just the difference of the calculated sea level rise. However, this does not account for any fluctuation a storm might encounter, as it is a uniform increase. To create a more accurate model with regard to the storm track and parameters of the storm a new scenario will need to be run over the new DEM. There is one critical step to running a SLR simulation before you begin. When dealing with Hazus MH it is strict about how files are s tored and run. Because there is no default option in Hazus MH ( i.e. Earthquake, Flood, and Hurricane) to run a SLR model there needs to be some manipulation within the Hazus MH system. Hazus MH as the DEM used to run it s scenario model To use the new SLR rise model it is necessary to replace the original DEM (clipdem) with the new SLR DEM for Hazus to recognize the replaced DEM The steps need to replace the DEM are listed in Appendix B. This model is not the definitiv e answer as to how SLR would affect the area, however i t does give you at least an introduction to how sea level rise would or could

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32 affect the coastal counties From the map (Figure 3 3) you can see how much storm surge will affect the county and region and how mitigation planning will be needed to help prepare for this type if disaster if SLR does occur 100 Year Wind Grid Analysis Figure 3 1. 100 Year Wind Grid Analysis (Harrilal, 100 Year Wind Grid Analysis, 2012)

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33 100 Year Storm Surge Depth Analysis Figure 3 2. 100 Year Storm Surge Depth Analysis (Harrilal, 100 Year Storm Surge Depth Analysis, 2012)

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34 100 Year Storm Surge with 2 M S ea L evel R ise Figure 3 3. 100 Year Storm Surge with a 2 M eter SLR (Harrilal, 100 Year Storm Surge with a 2 Meter SLR, 2012)

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3 5 CHAPTER 4 ANALYSIS /RESULTS D ata A nalysis Parameters The analysis conducted for this thesis was comprised of two major steps. First, a Hazus MH storm analys is (both hurricane and coastal storm surge) was performed. This generic analysis produced reports regarding the p redicted quantities of building damages and infrastructure losses. The second step was analyzing the detailed losses at a parcel level by runni ng the spatial analyst tools in ArcGIS. This level of analysis produced detailed information that enabled an understanding of the specific losses at the parcel level. For the analysis, a storm was selected within H azus MH mimicking the strength and path t hat has the probability of occurring once every 100 years. The detailed storm track is diagramed in F igure 4 1 From the figure, looking at the map extent, you can see the full track of the storm. The storm making its way through the Gulf of Mexico comes f rom the southwest and makes land fall in northern Pinellas County. This storm track places the strongest part of the storm, th e northeast quadrant as diagramed in Figure 2 2, over the Tampa Bay area. For the regional analysis, there will be no empirical da ta analysis. This region will not be examined at a detailed level due to the time constraints and the amount of data that would be required to analyze the region as a whole. The analysis was conducted for an understanding of how the region could be impacte d based on the storm strength and their location with regard to the bay. Using the created maps, it allows an insight into vulnerable areas within the region. When examining a n area for disaster analysis, it is important to examine the surrounding areas. T he ability to forecast not only your

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36 emergen cy need, but those around you is important when determining where to have evacuees go during an evacuation Additionally understanding how the bay region on the macro scale would be impacted in the long term due to SLR can help collaborative prevention efforts. If the local areas are faci ng similar challenges pooling effort together can be beneficial to all, in both the short and long term. However there will also be a detailed analysis run to demonstrate an exa mple of how SLR can impact an area empirically. For this thesis, a detailed loss calculation was conducted for Pinellas County. From this analysis conclusion s could be drawn in terms of potential damage estimates not only for Pinellas County, but also f or the region. In the det ailed loss calculation, there are four different loss scenarios that were examined looking directly at single family residential homes : 1. L osses that would be incurred based on the 100 year wind damage ( Figure 4 7 ) 2. L osses that wo uld be incurred based on the 100 year storm surge ( Figure 4 13 ) 3. L osses that would be incurred based on the 100 year storm surge, assuming a 1 meter SLR ( Figure 4 15 ) 4. Losses that would be incurred based on the 100 year storm surge, assuming a 2 meter SLR ( F igure 4 8) Additionally there will b e a comprehensive examination as to how the three different storm surge damage estimates compare in terms of affected parcels. Regional Analysis Diagrams 100 Year Wind Grid Tampa Bay Region For the first regional an alysis, the map (Figure 4 2) depicts the effect of the wind on the Tampa Bay region. As you follow the storm track, the regional perspective provides some insight as to the hardest hit areas. You are able to parallel the storm track with the path of the st orms eye wall, where the storm would expose its peak

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37 strength for the longest duration. This dark red area experiences the highest wind speed in the entire diagramed region with a max at 121 mph. It also demonstrates the difference in storm strength that Hillsborough County will experience. There is a noticeable divide in the middle of the county showing that the upper northwest corner to the middle divide will be hardest hit. With regard to wind speed, a significant amount of damage will occur in Pinellas County and half of Hillsborough County. 100 Year Storm Surge Tampa Bay Region For the second analysis, this map (Figure 4 3) d epicts how the storm surge will affect the Tampa Bay region under current condition s with a 100 year probabilistic storm From the map, the storm surge is predicted to get as deep as 16.9 feet in some areas. There is one particular area in Manatee County where flood ing as deep at 16 feet occurs as far as 9 to 10 miles inland. Storm surge as a whole tend s to be more aggressive in the bay compared to the coastline facing the Gulf of Mexico. Much of the deeper flooding is occurring on Tampa Bay shores, whi ch further demonstrates their vul nerability to the flooding. Another critical area of concern with regard to flooding is Pinel las County. There are two points where flooding will occur and possibly cut off access out of the area. Even though the flooding is modeled to be shallow, Pinellas County could be split in two due to flooding. One affected region is near its border with H illsborough County and the other is slightly below the center of the county. 100 Year Storm Surge with 1 & 2 Meter SLR Tampa Bay Region For the final analysis, this map (Figure 4 4) provide s a contrast to how a current storm surge will measure up to on e with the addition of a 1 meter SLR and a 2 meter SLR. When examining this map compared to the previous (Figure 4 3) you can see that areas that were of concern initially become extremely susceptible to flooding and

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38 damage. Looking at the increase for a 1 meter sea level rise, it shows that the areas of main concern are the middle of P inellas County and the border between Pinellas and Hillsborough County. These two areas would see a significant increase in flooding, both in depth and reach. However, once you increase to 2 meters of sea level rise, there are more areas drastically affected. Building upon the normal SLR and 1 meter rise, Pinellas County becomes two large islands due to the storm surge alone not accounting for the addition al wind. Additional ly th e storm surge will push water fu rther into Manatee County with additional depth. Also becomes fairly heavily flooded compared to before. Understan ding how the r ise in water affects the bay shores can demonstrate what critical areas need to be protected. Between the ar eas that are at risk to flood c oastlines that face the Gulf of Mexico or Tampa Bay shores c ombined with the high winds that the coast will experience these areas very dangerous to reside in with an in coming storm due to their exposure to the hazards. Modeling SLR in Pinellas County 100 Year Wind Grid Pinellas County T his model address es the how the wind levels are distributed across Pinellas County. Because of the strength of the storm, base d o n the Saffir Simpson scale (S ee Figure 2 3 ), there are only two wind categories that are present in Pinellas County. In Pinellas County the wind speed ranges from 98 121 mph, which fall into a category 2 and 3 storm. From Figure 4 5 you can see the range of wind speed and it s mean. From Figure 4 6 you can see the general model used to obtain this model. This model took the two basic layers (Peak wind and Pinellas parcels) and converted them to raster layers, with an additional step for parcels. For the p arcels layer, the parcels were turned

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39 into point data then converted to a raster with the parcel information and the wind speed in one document for analysis. For Figure 4 7 the wind speed at scale 2 (yellow), there are 5,488 parcels selected. The total ar ea that is affected by this level of wind is 128,198 acres. Because the wind area is wide and covers the total county area, the percentage of each a parcel that gets affected i s extremely high, at about 98% o n average. For the wind speed at scale 3 (red), there are 35,108 parcels selected. The total area that is affected by this level of win d is 260,281 acres. The percentage of parcel that is affect ed by the winds impact is 98% on average. The actual cost damage will not be calculated for the wind grid bec ause this hazard will not change due to SLR. Comparing the wind levels as SLR increases will not pr ovide a change in damage amount; only a shift in storm strength will change how much damage the wind will cause. However the storm surge models will examine damage to illustrate the different due to SLR. Analyzing Residential Property Loss Before looking at the parcel level results, an examination of Hazus eneral results of property losses is a way to conduct a quick damage assessment. These result s are available after running the probabilistic storm performed in the steps listed in model s 1 through 3 ( Chapter 2). Several figure s are also generated through the quick assessment, i.e. building damage by general occupancy, by building types, and by gen eral occupancy. The figures 4 8 through 4 11 will account for all three counties in the simulation, however we w ill be discussing and evaluating the values for Pinellas County only As such, w hen number s are referenced in the following sections they will refer to Pinellas County unless otherwise stated.

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40 The building d amage by general occupancy figure shows that most occupancy types are within the same range however when you factor in the square footage residential and commercial have the highest probab ility Complete information about building damage by general occupancy is as shown on Figures 4 8 In Pinell as County, the building damage reflected in Hazus show that again residential property would be most affected, both in severity and building count. In each category (none, minor, moderate, severe, and destruction) residential dominate s the numbers of buildings d amaged as shown in Figure 4 9. In Pinellas County, most of the buildings that are affected are masonry, concrete, and wood structures. In cer tain categories of damage moderate and severe c oncrete and steel buildings represent a significant number of the buildings affected. However, manufactured homes are fairly resistant to damage on most damage levels as shown in Figure 4 10 The last figu re is the Direct Economic Losses for Buildings It provides a macro level total for how much losses could be incurred due to building loss on a monetary level. For Pinellas County it is projected that the building losses would cost $3.3 billion dollars an d the cost of the contents of the building would cost about $1 billion dollars. However, t hose are just physi cal damage costs; from the figure you are also able to see potential incomes losses a s well as shown in Figure 4 11. Storm Surge A nalysis For the flood analysis the flooding levels were broke n up into five categories classifying coastal flooding, based on the Saffir Si mpson Hurricane Level scales listed in Figure 2 3 Figure 4 12 is the level classification for Models 1 3. Additionally the losses information is derived from the just value (JV) listed in the parcel data.

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41 Model 1 100 Year Storm Surge Pinellas County The map in Figure 4 13 diagrams the probabilistic 100 year storm surge and shows that the depth ranges from 0 to almost 17 feet of water. Any area that is located in the color orange or red can be considered severely damaged due to flooding, at least at the first floor level. From the analysis using current parcel data, this level of flooding means 123,142 parcels would be affec ted d ue to flooding alone. Upon further examination, 55,664 of those parcels are single family homes. If those homes were to suffer damage related to flooding, the total damage coul d rise as high as $13.8 billion with a mean average loss of $248,223. These num bers would only account for the physical damage to property not including any ot her indirect losses. Figure 4 14 demonstrates the losses in graphic form Model 2 100 Year Storm Surge with 1 Meter SLR Pinellas County The map in Figure 4 15 diagrams the probabilis tic 100 year storm surge with 1 meter of SLR and shows that the depth ranges from 0 to a little over 20 feet of water. Any area that is located in the color orange or red can be considered severely damaged due to flooding, at least at the first and second floor level. From the analysis using current parcel data, this level of flooding means 166,585 parcels would be affected due to flooding alone. Upon further examination, 80,047 of those parcels are single family homes. If those homes were to suf fer damage related to flooding, the total damage could rise as high as $17.4 billion with a mean average loss of $216,761. These numbers would only account for the physical damage to property not including any other indirect losses. Figure 4 16 demonstrat es the losses in graphic form

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42 Model 3 100 Year Storm Surge with 2 Meter SLR Pinellas County The map in Figure 4 17 diagrams the probabilistic 100 year storm surge with 2 meters of SLR and shows that the depth ranges from 0 to a little over 23.5 feet o f water. Any area that is located in the color orange or red can be considered severely damaged due to flooding, at least at the first and second floor level. From the analy sis using current parcel data, this level of flooding means 215,402 parcels would b e affected due to flooding alone. Upon further examination, 107,412 of those parcels are single family homes. If those homes were to suffer damage related to flooding, the total damage could rise as high as $20.8 billion wit h a mean average loss of $193,49 7 These numbers would only account for the physical damage to property not including any other indirect losses. Figure 4 18 demonstrates the losses in graphic form

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43 Figure 4 1. 100 Year Probabilistic Storm Track (Harrilal, 1 00 Year Probablistic Storm Track, 2012)

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44 Figure 4 2. 100 Year Wind Grid Tampa Bay Region (Harrilal, 100 Year Wind Grid Tampa Bay Region, 2012)

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45 Figure 4 3. 100 Year Storm Surge Tampa Bay Region (Harrilal, 100 Year Storm Surge Tampa Bay Region, 2012)

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46 Figure 4 4. 100 Year Storm Surge with 1 & 2 Meter SLR Tampa Bay Region (Harrilal, 100 Year Storm Surge with 1 & 2 Meter SLR Tampa Bay Region, 2012) Figure 4 5. Wind Speed Statistics (Harrilal, Wind Speed Statistics, 2012)

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47 Figure 4 6. General Model for Wind Grid Model (Model 1) (Harrilal, ArcGIS Model, 2012) Figure 4 7. 100 Year Wind Grid Pi nellas County (Harrilal, 100 Year Wind Grid Pinellas County, 2012)

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48 Figure 4 8. Building Damage by General Occupancy (Harrilal, Building Damage by General Occupancy, 2012)

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49 Figure 4 9. Bui lding Damage by Count by General Occupancy (Harrilal, Building Damage by Count by General Occupancy, 2012)

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50 Figure 4 10. Building Damage by Building Type (Harrilal, Building Damage by Building Type, 2012)

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51 Figure 4 11. Direct Economic Losses for Buildings (Harrilal, Direct Economic Losses for Buildings, 2012) Figure 4 12. Storm Surge Modified Scale (Adapted from (Watson, 2012) )

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52 Figure 4 13. 100 Year Storm Surge Pinellas County (Harrilal, 100 Year Storm Surge Pinellas County, 2012) Figure 4 14. 100 Year Flooding JV Statistical Statistics (Harrilal, 100 Year Flooding J V Statistics, 2012)

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53 Figure 4 15. 100 Year Storm Surge with 1 Meter SLR Pinellas County (Harrilal, 100 Year Storm Surge with 1 Meter SLR Pinellas County, 2012) Figure 4 16. 100 Year Flooding with 1 Meter of SLR JV S tatistics (Harrilal, 100 Year Flooding with 1 Meter of SLR JV Statistics, 2012)

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54 Figure 4 17. 100 Year Storm Surge with 2 Meter SLR Pinellas County (Harrilal, 100 Year Storm Surge with 2 Mete r SLR Pinellas County, 2012) Figure 4 18. 100 Year Flooding with 2 Meters of SLR JV Statistics (Harrilal, 100 Year Flooding with 2 Meters of SLR JV Statistics, 2012)

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55 CHAPTE R 5 CONCLUSIONS Understanding the Analysis Preparing for a natural disaster is no easy task at any level of government No matter how much analysis is conducted or emergency management policies are written, the efforts cannot stop a storm from forming and making land fall However, preparing for li fe after the storm is one of the best steps we can take to help prevent the loss of lives and to start back on the road to recovery after a natural disaster From the data that was analyzed, it show s that if there were to be a 1 meter or 2 meter sea level rise with a 100 year storm, Pinellas County and the Tampa Bay region wou ld be in serious trouble. This storm would wreak havoc for Pine llas County in all three phases: pre storm, during the storm, and post storm. Regional Analysis Conclusions After looki ng at the Tampa Bay region, few key conclusions were observed. First, it was apparent that the Tampa Bay shorelines are more susceptible to intense flooding compared to the coastline facing the Gulf of Mexico. Similarly Pinellas and Manatee County are mor e affected than Hillsborough in the Tampa Bay region. However, in the 2 meter simulation, Hillsborough becomes increasingly affected, with nearly the entire peninsula flooded. It was also determined that t he areas that were not directly submerged would not be excused; they would be beaten and battered by sustained hurricane force winds. The winds would range from 98 121 mph, with the strongest winds affecting the center of Pinellas County. Additionally it was clear that Pinellas County would require evacu ation Anyone evacuating would need to leave Pinellas County and should not expect to find safety in

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56 northern Hillsborough County where wind levels will be strongest (Figure 3 1 ) The evacuees should be instructed to head south into Manatee County and fur ther inland to ensure safety. Pinellas County Analysis Conclusions From the analysis conducted on Pinellas County there were a few major conclusions. From the maps produced it was evident that the shifting sea level would produce increasingly higher le vels of st orm surge. As expected, when there is an add ition of 1 meter (3.28 feet) or 2 meters (6.56 feet) of SLR on top of a normal storm surge the water depth will rise accordingly. The base level of a normal storm surge was approximately 17 feet, and r ose to 20 feet with 1 meter of SLR and 23.5 feet with a 2 meter SLR. The water depth will react different ly based on the terrain, which is demonstrated in the maps. Figures 4 13, 4 15, and 4 17 demonstrate how much more damage is possible due to flooding from the increase in wa ter of approximately 6 feet. Figure 5 1 further outlines how parcels were affected by the storm surge. The To tal Affected Parcels compares the affected parcels from the different storm surge models. From model to model, the number of total parcels and single family parcels affected increases dramatically, and the incremental increase is relatively consistent. Total parcels increased an average of 46,130 parcels (average 32% increase) from each model and single family parcels increa sed an average of 25,874 parcels (average 38.5% increase) for each model. As the parcels increased, the total projected cost paralleled with a similar consistent increases. Figure 5 2 shows the projected losses for tax revenue that would be incurred by th e county if the storm surge at a 100 year level damaged all of the homes. It is understood that all homes within the surge area may not be extremely damaged,

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57 however if SLR were to occur those current surge areas wou ld be increasingly damage d Figure 5 2 lists the number of home s affected and their value The millage rate is the number used by the tax collector s office to determine the amount of taxes a property owner is charged (Mohr, 2012) Although e ach city has their own calculated millage rate, an average of 20 (0.02%) is used for this analysis (Nelson, 2011) The calculations determined t hat the average household would pay approximately $ 4,000 in taxes to the county and Pinellas County would stand to lose over $ 220 million annually. The ad valorem tax ( real estate property taxes) collected for the fiscal year 2011 was $ 297 million collected ; a loss of $220 million would leave Pinellas County with a new ad valorem of $77 million, even without c onsideration of the additional loss of property value throughout the county (Pinellas County, 2012) Analysis Conclusions From the analysis conducted, it is clear that a 100 year storm would create a severe challenge for Pine llas County. The billions of dollars in infrastructure that would be damaged, not including homes and businesses would mo re than likely leave this co coast and shorelines damaged From the data analysis, it is clear if a 100 year storm should threat en Pinellas County, and especially if there is a sea level rise of 2 probability of someone on a coastline or in Pinellas County surviving a 100 year storm is not favorab le with both the threat of severe flooding and high sustained winds Evacuation routes and detailed emergency plans should be prepared before any disaster it is the local government s duty to act in the best interest of its citizens. The analysis presen ted information that demonstrate s that there are a number of parcels

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58 that will need an immediate response to be evacuated because they have multiple impacts from the hurricane. Figure 5 1. Total Affected Parcels by Model Comparison (Harrilal, Total Affected Parcels by Model Comparison 2012) Figure 5 2. Projected Loss of Tax Revenue in Pinellas County (Harrilal, Projected Loss of Tax Revenue in Pinellas County, 2012)

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59 CHAPTER 6 RECOMMENDAT IONS Preparing for Disaster Realizing the extreme importance to evacuate Pinellas County citizens, the recommendations after this research focus on these measures. Because of the strength and potential for damage, evacuation is the best option for preservi ng life in Pinellas County. First, there will be an examination of the need for an evacuation due to wind and flooding. Next it will be considered which citizens should evacuate prior to a storm of thi s magnitude. Then the idea of preparing for sea level rise will be addressed Finally, what actions are currently being taken and should be taken in the future regarding planning and land use. Evacuation for Flooding and Wind When trying to understand the implications of the probabilistic storm, a map can be the most useful tool. Figure 4 13 (from C hapter 4 ) provides a graphic understanding of how much storm surge flooding will have occurred. Any section of land within the county in light g rey will not have been affected by storm surge, but this does not mean it has not been affected by rainwater flooding. Nevertheless, it would be safe to assume that there would be at least a base level of flooding occurring from rainwater everywhere in the peninsula that is already prone to flooding Specifically addressing the areas of heavier coastal flooding, those areas will need t o be evacuated based on the premise that the flooding will exceed tolerable levels (6 feet and above) and citizens left in those critical areas could be underwater or forced out of their home i n search of higher ground. The search for higher ground during the storm would then expose them to the hazards of the storm, especially the wind and any debris flying around

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60 Examining Figure 4 7 the wind grid map, is helpful in understanding the levels o f wind This map depicts the levels of wind speed that the peninsula will experience with this simulated storm. The wind speed throughout the peninsula will experience wind speeds between 98 mph and 1 2 1 mph a range of 23 mph It would be safe to assume t hat all of Pinellas County will suffer at least maximum sustained wind gusts of 98 mph. This level of wind can take loose debris or elements from the natural environment and make them destructive projectiles. Additionally th e pressure and strain the storm wind s will place on buildings and infrastructures can cause long lasting damage Anyone that is caught outside in these high winds would be placing their life in jeopardy. Based on the assumptions made regarding flooding and wind, an evacuation of the wh ole peninsula would be needed First and foremost, evacuation is needed due to the direct hazards of the storm: wind, rain, and flooding. Next it would be unsafe for anyone during t he storm to be isolated in the potentially flooded areas. Finally after t he storm, it would be extremely difficult to provide people that do survive with aid and supplies needed for survival. When Should Citizens Evacuate When determining when to evacuate citizens, understanding the storm forecast is a critical component. Off icials need to have an understanding of how the forecast models are projected to plan effectively. Evacuation routes and staging would depend upon roadway capacity and the amount of people that would be using them. This ratio would be calculated be local p lanning and transportation officials. Based on this ratio, the areas that would be impacted first would have first priority of evacuation. Considering most of the population will leave the county via vehicles, accommodations will need to be made for those who are unable to drive. Additionally, the cities where all

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61 of these people will exodus to will need to be considered; they will be entering the surrounding counties and heading further inland Understanding the surrounding ability to sustain the se citizens for the present and immediate future will depend on their planning efforts. Planning for Sea Level Rise Planning for sea level rise is not an easy topic to discuss. Many citizens do not want to think about the concept of the mean sea level rising, let alone the impact that it may have on their daily lives. Business and coastal property owners do not want to consider what will happen if the beach erodes itself up to the ir constructed sea wall and the impact it will have on businesses and tour ism. However, these are the critical realities planners must try to understand, and develop plans and strategies to handle this phenomenon Dealing with such a complex issue has no easy fix; it will take the work of many, n ot just in one week or year, but also over the course of decades. To develop a way to mitigate the problems associated with sea level rise, it will take the efforts for our generation and the ones to come to develop the plan to help sustain our way of life. Mitigation policies needs to t ake place in all aspects of time; the past, present, and future. Dealing with the past, it is necessary to examine how to grandfather current property owners into new policies and shifting their liability from other entities to themselves. In the present, understanding how to slow coastal development in a n efficient way to mitigate losses that could be occurred by property developers is paramount Finally for the future, policies to reduce or restrict future projects or property development on coastlines t hat are at risk to potential property loss due to SLR need to be developed and put into place

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62 Developing an early mitigation system is important to lessen the loss of property and life. Another important subject is to keep the potential threat of SLR in the public eye spreading information for residents to understand the issues. By distributing information on SLR, people will be come more aware to protect their own property and life, so less damage or loss will occur Education is always a key compon ent i n dealing with any issue, so steps need to be taken to ensure that the people that will be affected by SLR should understand the problem and the options that will be available to them. In the end, the choice to act will be left in the citizens hands, howe ver planners are tasked with providing the essential data and the viable possible policies to prevent potential losses of life and property. Current Planning Efforts Political Implications Sea level rise residents; it is a nightmare for policy makers. Creating policies regarding land use that could jeopardize property owners land value is an extremely risky business. There are many risk mitigation options in which policies would attempt to shift losses or damages to the prop erty owner in an effort to mitigate the losses incurred by the state and insurance companies. When there is likely to be a strong resistance towards any policy no matter how much research backs the decision. D ecisions also need to be made regarding sensitive or critical coastal areas forcing policymakers to determine which areas need to be fortified and protected from SLR. Additionally, policy makers do not have to deal with only the physical issues of land loss, but also t he issues of hand ling the sources of SLR. Policy makers must look at the cause s of global warming and understand how to prevent future damage to help slow

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63 the losses that could be incurred due to loss of land. The actions of planners the community overall r equire vigilance to prevent more damage. The anecdote about a frog being boiled alive is a good metaphor for how we can get complacent and end up in trouble before we even realize it. In the anecdote, a frog is placed in cold water and t he temperature is body adjust s to the slowly rising temperature and perceive s that there is no danger. The water temperature continues to increase and by the time the frog realize s the danger, it is too late to react This scenario mirrors the stru ggle for citizens to understand the threat posed by SLR. A s the sea level increases over time, current and future generations need to act now to mitigate the danger Possible Future Policies There are different types o f strategies for mitigating SLR; a com bination of design regulations good policy would help absorb potential future losses. Design regulation can help to develop ways to stop floodwaters from encro aching on the coastline through various tactics. Placing levy systems or building higher human bu ilt barriers are options, but are very costly. Another option is to build sponge like retention areas to help reduce flooding, which would reduce construction requirements. A final option is retrofitting coastal properties or requiring new coastal properti es to adhere to new construction regulation s that are more equipped to handle SLR. These construction regulations could require an owner build their property on stilts or increase their grade up to an appropriate level based on the location. In addition t o design requirements, policies can be implemented to help fund some of these efforts. For example, a type of impact fee could be charged for building within a certain buffer zone of the coastline. This impact fee sh ould be based on the level of

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64 risk base d on location. As citizens pay into the fund, the loc al government sh ould use the funding to help start building preventative measure s that would benefit communities as a whole. Finally the one option that is most controversial is retreating from the sho reline entirely This option would be the most difficult to pursue due the amount of infrastructure and loss of potential revenue citizens would face. A full retreat from the current coastline wo uld undoubtedly have the largest impact on the country. H owev er the increased threat of natural disasters with SLR could lead to this result out of pure necessity Additional Research After examining the data and drawing conclusions, there is one last issue to be addressed there is more research needed on the top ic of SLR. From the research presented in this thesis, it is evident that further analysis needs to be conducted on the effects of SLR and how a possible SLR event count affect any coastal area Based on the limitations encountered in this thesis such as limited data size (scale and scope) and imperfect models (H azus MH parameters) other s could build upon this research and provide better analysis. This data analysis was c onducted on 30 meter cell size and could be improved upon by using 10 or 5 meter cel l sizes or even LiDar data. Using a higher level of resolution for the data would yield better results regarding flooding depth and removing more data errors. Additionally, due to time restrictions others with more knowledge using H azus MH may be able to create a more effective model using different parameters. B eyond the SLR topics explored in this thesis s ea level rise needs to be examined by other disciplines to further understand its far reaching effects.

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65 APPENDIX A ADDITIONAL HAZUS MH SUM M A RY REPORTS This appendix will contain a summary report generated by Hazus MH when conducting the flooding analysis for the Tampa Bay region. The summary report is 11 pages long and will be listed in its entirety.

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77 AP PENDIX B DETAILED METHODOLOGY Wind Modeling Creating a Hazus File 1. O pen Hazus 2. Click Create a new r egion 3. Name study region Choose a name to describe the file ( i.e. WilmaWindSimulation ) also the option to add an additional description is available 4. Choo se h azard type Select hurricane 5. Click Yes in the pop up window that will appearing asking about creating a study region with the Hurricane Scenario Wizard 6. Choose aggregation l evel Choose county 7. Choose the scenario operation Choose create new scenario 8. Choose the storm definition type Choose define storm track manually 9. Name the new scenario Choose a name to describe the file ( i.e. WilmaAdjustTrack ) 10. Let the storm track definition method default to the standard options ( times, radius to maximum winds and maximum wind speeds are the default hurricane parameters ) 11. Fill in the chart with the predetermined characteristics of the storm ( categories ranging from translation speed to central pressure ) 12. After filling in the tables, Hazus HM will verify the poi nts and then run the windfield calculation

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78 13. After the calculation is complete, you will then choose the study area 14. Choose aggregation level Choose county 15. Choose state s election Choose state or select from map ( i.e. Florida ) 16. Choose county s election Ch oose c ounty or counties ( i.e. Levy ) 17. Click ok in the pop up stating that the aggregation was successful 18. Next, you will need to open up a new region 19. Select region Choose created file ( i.e. AdjustedStormTrack ) 20. After clicking Finished, the created file will open in ArcGIS Creating a New Scenario Model (i.e. Wind/Hurricane) 1. Go to h azards Scenario 2. Choose the hurricane scenario that was created ( i.e. AdjustedStormTrack ) Make sure Activate is the selected option from the choices listed to the left of the fi les 3. Select Yes stating that you want to activate the scenario 4. Click Next to continue through the next three windows as Hazus allows you to review the storm track data 5. Click Finish and it will generate the wind loads for a 100 year storm 6. Hazus running in ArcGIS will make the wind grid 7. Click Results Storm track File name ( i.e. WilmaAdjustStormTrack ) 8. At that point the storm track will be on the map and a completed wind simulation model will have been created. ( Figure 3 1) After completing the Hazus wind grid, functionality in ArcGIS allows you make the wind levels useful information. By converting the wind grid into a raster file you can apply the

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79 data to individual parcels for the county or area and it will allow you to gauge how the area is actually bei ng affected at the parcel level. Coastal Flood Modeling Creating a Hazus File 1. O pen Hazus 2. Click Create a new r egion 3. Name study region Choose a name to describe the file ( i.e. TampaBaySimulation ) also the option to add an additional description is ava ilable 4. Choose the h azard type Select flood 5. Choose aggregation l evel Choose c ounty 6. Choose state s election Choose state or select from map ( i.e. Florida ) 7. Choose county s election Choose county or counties ( i.e. Pinellas, Manatee, Hillsborough ) 8. C lick Finish to complete the region creation wizard 9. Hazus MH will begin processing the study region and, once finished, the original Hazus MH prompt will appear 10. Click Open a Region 11. Choose selected region Choose the created file ( i.e. TampaBayS imulation ) 12. Cli ck finish on the final screen and it will open up the file in ArcGIS Adding a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) 1. Open the working file through Hazus which will pull up ArcGIS ( i.e. TampaBaySimulation )

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80 2. Choose the type of flood hazard t ype Hazard Flood hazar d type 3. C hoose riverine, coastal, or both riverine and coastal ( i.e. Coastal ) 4. Go to access the DEM Hazard User Data Click the navigate directly to the DEM n the center of the DEM e xtent window a. Before clicking the center box on the DEM extent window, make sure yo u are connected to the Internet b. It will default to a 30M grid, however you can change the setting at the website to 10M grid or 3M (30M is also equivalent to Acre 30M =1 Arc Second, 10M =1/3 Arc Second, 3M =1/9 Arc Second ) 5. Follow the directions from the pop up Inte rnet browser window to download the file 6. After downloading the file, unzip and place into a n appropriate folder for access 7. Go back to ArcGIS, and close the DEM e xtent window 8. Click browse on the user data window and find the DEM file location 9. The DEM layer should be listed in the table of contents tab Creating a New Scenario Model (i.e. Flood) 1. G o to Hazards Scenario New 2. N ame the file and add an optional descr iption ( i.e. TampaBay _Flood ) 3. Choose the map layer type ( i.e. coastal shorelines ) in the Edit Scenario window and choose to add to selection

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81 4. Select the shoreline, verifying it is selected in its entirety, and then click Save to finalize the selection 5. V erif y the start line, end line, and break line in the Shoreline L imits window will pop up, once satisfied click next 6. Enter the 100 year stillwater elevation, which is required for an accurate model and can be found in the Flood Insurance Reports ( ) 7. Ch eck the vertical datum, choosing which spheroid to use 8. Click Finish 9. D elineate the floodplain by clicking the following Hazards Coastal Delineate Floodplain 10. Check the settings in the window for coastal hazard ana lysis and then click OK 11. Click yes to c ontinue in a warning pop up window asking about rastering the flood layer 12. Now, you will have a completed coastal flood simulation model created (See Figure 3 2) Sea Level Rise Modeling Lowering the DEM 1. Open up the raster calculator by clicking the follow ing: Spatial Analyst Tools Map Algebra Raster Calculator 2. Add the DEM layer to the calculator and enter the formula as stated below (in feet) [DEM + ( sea level rise in feet)]

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82 3. are less than zero) 4. Using the raster calculator, select all the cells that are less than or equal to zero 5. Make everything equal to 0, equal to 1 6. Finally convert the raster to a polygon to get a final polygon (raster that has a value of 1) by clicking the following: a. Conversion Tools From Raster Raster to Polygon Replacing the Old DEM 1. and copy the file folder 2. Go to the user data folder for Hazus MH Go to the C: drive Ha zus User Data Regions 3. Choose the folder in which your working file is located 4. 5. Paste the copied file into the directory folder 6. At this point, Hazus will now recognize the new SLR DEM Creating a New Scen ario Model with New DEM 1. Go to Hazards Scenario 2. Create a new hurricane scenario ( i.e. SLRStormSurge ) Make sure Activate is the selected option from the choices listed to the left of the files 3. Select Yes stating that you want to activate the scenari o

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83 4. Hazus will then run the probabilistic storm data over the new DEM 5. Click Finish to generate the storm surge flood levels for a 100 year storm 6. Hazus running in ArcGIS will produce the storm surge polygon and depth raster grid 7. The new polygon and depth grid will reflect how a change in SLR would affect the same area

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84 REFERENCE LIST Census Viewer. (2011). Population of Levy County, Florida Retrieved Aug 07, 2012, from Census Viewer: http://censusviewer.com/county/FL/Levy Cook, J. (2012, Se pt 20). How Much Will Sea Level Rise in the 21st Century? (J. Cook, Producer) Retrieved Sept 25, 2012, from Skeptical Science: http://www.skepticalscience.com/sea level rise predictions.htm Daines, G. E. (1991). Planning, Training, Exercising. In T. E. Dra bek, & G. Hoetmer, Emergency Management, International City/County Management Association (pp. 161 200). Washington, DC. De Groot, L., Niblock, D., & Fausto, S. (2012, Aug 21). Which Part of a Hurricane Packs the Worst Punch? Retrieved Aug 21, 2012, from S un Sentinel.com: http://www.sun sentinel.com/broadband/theedge/sfl hurricanequadrants,0,2447301.flash Federal Emergency Management Agency. (2012, July 18). About Retrieved Aug 21, 2012, from FEMA: http://www.fema.gov/about/ Federal Emergency Management Ag ency. (2006). Introduction to Hazard Mitigation. Federal Emergency Management Agency. Federal Emergency Management Agency. Federal Insurance and Mitigation Administration. (2012, July 16). Federal Insurance and Mitigation Administration (FIMA) Retrieved A ug 22, 2012, from Federal Emergency Management Agency: http://www.fema.gov/what mitigation/federal insurance and mitigation administration fima FEMA. (2012, Mar 14). FEMA: HAZUS MH Best Practices: State of Florida Retrieved Aug 22, 2012, from Federal Emer gency Management Agency: http://www.fema.gov/plan/prevent/hazus/hz_fl_bestpractices.shtm FEMA. (n.d.). FEMA: Learn About Hurricanes Retrieved Sept 18, 2012, from Federal Emergency Management Agency: http://www.fema.gov/hazard/hurricane/hu_about.shtm#0 FEM A. (2012, Mar 14). HAZUS MH FEMA's Methodology for Estimating Potential Losses from Disasters Retrieved Aug 22, 2012, from FEMA: HAZUS: http://www.mmrs.fema.gov/plan/prevent/hazus/ Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology. (2010). Win dstorm Mitigation Discounts Report. State Board of Administration of Florida. Tallahassee: State Board of Administration of Florida.

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85 Florida Division of Emergency Management. (2004). Levy County. Retrieved Aug 07, 2012, from Levy County Emergency Managemen t: http://www.levydisaster.com/files/Levy_EvacZones_withStreets.pdf Florida Geographic Data Library (n.d.). Florida Geographic Data Library Metadata Explorer Retrieved Sept 18, 2012, from Florida Geographic Data Library (FGDL): http://www.fgdl.org/metad ataexplorer/about.html Gillespie, D., & Colignon, R. (1993). Structural Change in Disaster Preparedness Networks. International Journal of Mass Emergencies and Disasters 11 (2), 143 162. Harrilal, K. D. (2012, Sept). 100 Year Flooding JV Statistics. Gain esville, Florida, USA. Harrilal, K. D. (2012, Sept). 100 Year Flooding with 1 Meter of SLR JV Statistics. Gainesville, Florida, USA. Harrilal, K. D. (2012, Sept). 100 Year Flooding with 2 Meters of SLR JV Statistics. Gainesville, Florida, USA. Harrilal, K. D. (2012, Sept). 100 Year Probablistic Storm Track. Gainesville, Florida, USA. Harrilal, K. D. (2012, Sept). 100 Year Storm Surge Depth Analysis. Gainesville, Florida, USA. Harrilal, K. D. (2012, Sept). 100 Year Storm Surge Pinellas County. Gainesville, F lorida, USA. Harrilal, K. D. (2012, Sept). 100 Year Storm Surge Tampa Bay Region. Gainesville, Florida, USA. Harrilal, K. D. (2012, Sept). 100 Year Storm Surge with 1 & 2 Meter SLR Tampa Bay Region. Gainesville, Florida, USA. Harrilal, K. D. (2012, Sept) 100 Year Storm Surge with 1 Meter SLR Pinellas County. Gainesville, Florida, USA. Harrilal, K. D. (2012, Sept). 100 Year Storm Surge with 2 Meter SLR Pinellas County. Gainesville, Florida, USA. Harrilal, K. D. (2012, Sept). 100 Year Storm Surge with a 2 Meter SLR. Gainesville, Florida, USA. Harrilal, K. D. (2012, Sept). 100 Year Wind Grid Analysis. Gainesville, Florida, USA. Harrilal, K. D. (2012, Sept). 100 Year Wind Grid Pinellas County. Gainesville, Florida, USA.

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86 Harrilal, K. D. (2012, Sept). 100 Y ear Wind Grid Tampa Bay Region. Gainesville, Florida, USA. Harrilal, K. D. (2012, Sept). ArcGIS Model. Gainesville, Florida, USA. Harrilal, K. D. (2012, Sept). Building Damage by Building Type. HAZUS MH Summary Reports Gainesville, Florida, USA. Harrilal K. D. (2012, Sept). Building Damage by Count by General Occupancy. HAZUS MH Summary Reports Gainesville, Florida, USA. Harrilal, K. D. (2012, Sept). Building Damage by General Occupancy. HAZUS MH Summary Reports Gainesville, Florida, USA. Harrilal, K D. (2012, Sept). Direct Economic Losses for Buildings. HAZUS MH Summary Reports Gainesville Florida, USA. Harrilal, K. D. (2012, Sept). Pinellas County Political Map. Gainesville, Florida, USA. Harrilal, K. D. (2012, Sept). Projected Loss of Tax Reve nue in Pinellas County. Gainesville, Florida, USA. Harrilal, K. D. (2012, Sept). Saffir Simpson Scale. Saffir Simpson Hurricane Scale Gainesville, Florida, USA. Harrilal, K. D. (2012, Sept). Tampa Bay Region Political Map. Gainesville, Florida, USA: Kenw yn Harrilal. Harrilal, K. D. (2012, Sept). Total Affected Parcels by Model Comparison Gainesville, Florida, USA. Harrilal, K. D. (2012, Sept). Wind Speed Statistics. Gainesville, Florida, USA. Hearty, P. J., & Kaufman, D. S. (2000). Whole Rock Aminostrat igraphy and Quaternary Sea Level History of the Bahamas. Quaternary Research 163 173. Heberger, M., Cooley, H., Herrera, P., Gleick, P. H., & Moore, E. (2011). Potential Impacts of Increased Coastal Flooding in California Due to Sea Level Rise. Earth and Environmental Science 109 229 249. Mohr, L. (2012). Estimating the Amount of Real Estate Property Taxes in Tampa Bay Retrieved Sept 29, 2012, from Tampa2Enjoy.com: http://www.tampa2enjoy.com/real estate/advice/real estate taxes.html National Park Serv ice. (2012, Sept 9). What is Climate Change (U. D. Interior, Producer) Retrieved Sept 25, 2012, from Golden Gate National Recreation Area: http://www.nps.gov/goga/naturescience/climate change causes.htm

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87 Nelson, D. (2011). Millage Rates (Dollars Per Thou sand). Pinellas County Tax Collector. Pinellas County. New York State Sea Level Rise Task Force. (2010). New York State Sea Level Rise Task Force Report. New York: New York State Department. NOAA. (2012, May 11). Storm Surge Overview Retrieved Aug 21, 201 2, from National Weather Service National Hurricane Center: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/surge/ NOAA/National Weather Service. (2012, May 29). Hurricane Preparedness Hazards Retrieved Aug 30, 2012, from National Weather Services National Hurricane Center: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/prepare/hazards.php Perry, R. W., & Lindell, M. K. (2003). Preparedness for Emergency Response: Guildlines for the Emergency Planning Process. Disasters 27 (4), 336 350. Peterson, D. M., & Perry, R. W. (1999). The Impacts of Disas ter Exercises on Participants. Disaster Prevention and Management 8 (4), 241 254. Petit, J. R. (1999). Climate and Atmospheric History of the Past 420,000 years from the Vostok Ice Core, Antartica. Nature 399 429 436. Pinellas County. (2012). FY2012 O perating and Capital Budget Detail. Pinellas County. Rahmstorf, S. (2012). Sea Level Rise: Towards Understanding Local Vulnerability. Environmental Research Letter 7 (2), 1 4. scioly.org. (2011, June 25). Saffir Simpson Hurricane Scale. Saffir Simpson In tensity Scale State of Delaware. (2011, Sept). Delaware Coastal Programs Retrieved Sept 17, 2012, from Delaware.gov: http://www.dnrec.delaware.gov/coastal/Pages/SeaLevelRiseAdaptation.aspx Strauss, B. H., Ziemlinski, R., Weiss, J. L., & Overpeck, J. T. (2012). Tidally Adjusted Estimates of Topographic Vulnerability to Sea Level Rise and Flooding for the Contiguous United States. IOP Science 7 (1), 1 13. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. (2011). Sea Level Change Considerations for Civil Works Programs. Dapa rtment of the Army. Washington, DC: Department of the Army. U.S. Census Bureau. (2010). 2010 Demographic profile Retrieved Aug 07, 2012, from American FactFinder: http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?pid= DEC_10_DP_ DPDP1

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88 U.S. Census Bureau. (2012, Aug 27). American Fact Finder Retrieved Sept 25, 2012, from American Fact Finder: http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/index.xhtml U.S. Department of Defense. (2005). Hazard Definition of Hazard by The Free Online Dictionary, Thesaurus and Encyclopedia (D. o. Terms, Producer) Retrieved Sept 26, 2012, from The Free Dictionary by Farlex: http://www.thefreedictionary.com/hazard U.S. Geological Survey. (2012, Aug 01). Floods: Recurrence Intervals and 100 Year Fl oods Retrieved Aug 23, 2012, from The USGS Water Science School: http://ga.water.usgs.gov/edu/100yearflood.html UN Atlas of the Oceans. (2010, Mar 9). Session 10: Sea Level Rise. Coastal Hazards Management Course Federal Emergency Management Agency. Uni ted State s Census Bureau. (2012, June 07). Levy County QuickFacts from the US Census Bureau Retrieved Aug 07, 2012, from State & County Quickfacts: http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/12/12075.html United State s Environmental Protection Agency. (2012, June 8). Climate Change Indicators in the United States Retrieved Sept 18, 2012, from Indicators, Climate Change, US EPA: http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/indicators/index.html United States Environmental Protection Agency. (2012, Aug 22). Climat e Change Impact and Adapting to Change Retrieved Sept 18, 2012, from Impacts & Adaption, Climate Change, US EPA: http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/impacts adaptation/ USGS. (2006, June 07). U.S. Geological Survey Fact Sheet 2005 3121 Retrieved Aug 21, 201 2, from USGS Science of a Changing World: http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2005/3121/ Watson, E. (2012). Hurricanes and the Saffir Simpson Scale Retrieved Sept 28, 2012, from About.com Powerboating: http://powerboat.about.com/od/weatherandtides/tp/Saffir Simpson Scale.htm Williams, J. (2005, May 17). Understanding Weather Forecasting (U. TODAY, Producer, & USATODAY.com) Retrieved Aug 07, 2012, from Weather: http://www.usatoday.com/weather/wforcst0.htm?loc=interstitialskip

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89 BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH Kenwyn Diego Har rilal was born in Trinidad & Tobago and moved to the United States when he was 3 years old. He went to school in South Florida and graduated from Miramar High School in 2004. Kenwyn received his undergraduate degree from the University of Florida, graduati ng Cum Laude from the M.E. Rinker Sr. School of Building Construction in 2010. After completing his undergraduate studies Kenwyn degree in 2011 a t the University of Florida in urban and regional p lanning.