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Demand for Watermelon and Application of AIDS Model

Permanent Link: http://ufdc.ufl.edu/UFE0025026/00001

Material Information

Title: Demand for Watermelon and Application of AIDS Model
Physical Description: 1 online resource (320 p.)
Language: english
Creator: ZHOU,WEI
Publisher: University of Florida
Place of Publication: Gainesville, Fla.
Publication Date: 2011

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords: AIDS -- DEMAND -- PRICE -- WATERMELON
Food and Resource Economics -- Dissertations, Academic -- UF
Genre: Food and Resource Economics thesis, Ph.D.
bibliography   ( marcgt )
theses   ( marcgt )
government publication (state, provincial, terriorial, dependent)   ( marcgt )
born-digital   ( sobekcm )
Electronic Thesis or Dissertation

Notes

Abstract: As we all know, the consumption of fresh fruit and vegetable are growing due to increasing health concern in recent years. Melons as an important part of fruit consumption have its unique characteristics. In this research, melons have been grouped into 5 categories: cantaloupe, honeydew, watermelon, mixed melon, and other melons. Expenditure allocation models and specifically the AIDS model are used to estimate consumer demand, explicitly showing the direct and cross price elasticities for the melon types. AIDS models are estimated using in-store scanner data recording both volume and expenditures on five melon types. Data from eight U.S. regions are reported monthly from 2003 through 2008 giving a total of observations in the full data set.
General Note: In the series University of Florida Digital Collections.
General Note: Includes vita.
Bibliography: Includes bibliographical references.
Source of Description: Description based on online resource; title from PDF title page.
Source of Description: This bibliographic record is available under the Creative Commons CC0 public domain dedication. The University of Florida Libraries, as creator of this bibliographic record, has waived all rights to it worldwide under copyright law, including all related and neighboring rights, to the extent allowed by law.
Statement of Responsibility: by WEI ZHOU.
Thesis: Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Florida, 2011.
Local: Adviser: Ward, Ronald W.
Electronic Access: RESTRICTED TO UF STUDENTS, STAFF, FACULTY, AND ON-CAMPUS USE UNTIL 2011-10-31

Record Information

Source Institution: UFRGP
Rights Management: Applicable rights reserved.
Classification: lcc - LD1780 2011
System ID: UFE0025026:00001

Permanent Link: http://ufdc.ufl.edu/UFE0025026/00001

Material Information

Title: Demand for Watermelon and Application of AIDS Model
Physical Description: 1 online resource (320 p.)
Language: english
Creator: ZHOU,WEI
Publisher: University of Florida
Place of Publication: Gainesville, Fla.
Publication Date: 2011

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords: AIDS -- DEMAND -- PRICE -- WATERMELON
Food and Resource Economics -- Dissertations, Academic -- UF
Genre: Food and Resource Economics thesis, Ph.D.
bibliography   ( marcgt )
theses   ( marcgt )
government publication (state, provincial, terriorial, dependent)   ( marcgt )
born-digital   ( sobekcm )
Electronic Thesis or Dissertation

Notes

Abstract: As we all know, the consumption of fresh fruit and vegetable are growing due to increasing health concern in recent years. Melons as an important part of fruit consumption have its unique characteristics. In this research, melons have been grouped into 5 categories: cantaloupe, honeydew, watermelon, mixed melon, and other melons. Expenditure allocation models and specifically the AIDS model are used to estimate consumer demand, explicitly showing the direct and cross price elasticities for the melon types. AIDS models are estimated using in-store scanner data recording both volume and expenditures on five melon types. Data from eight U.S. regions are reported monthly from 2003 through 2008 giving a total of observations in the full data set.
General Note: In the series University of Florida Digital Collections.
General Note: Includes vita.
Bibliography: Includes bibliographical references.
Source of Description: Description based on online resource; title from PDF title page.
Source of Description: This bibliographic record is available under the Creative Commons CC0 public domain dedication. The University of Florida Libraries, as creator of this bibliographic record, has waived all rights to it worldwide under copyright law, including all related and neighboring rights, to the extent allowed by law.
Statement of Responsibility: by WEI ZHOU.
Thesis: Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Florida, 2011.
Local: Adviser: Ward, Ronald W.
Electronic Access: RESTRICTED TO UF STUDENTS, STAFF, FACULTY, AND ON-CAMPUS USE UNTIL 2011-10-31

Record Information

Source Institution: UFRGP
Rights Management: Applicable rights reserved.
Classification: lcc - LD1780 2011
System ID: UFE0025026:00001


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Full Text

PAGE 19

Fresh Fruit and Vegetable Market

PAGE 23

Watermelon Market

PAGE 24

Citrullus lanatus

PAGE 26

Research Problem

PAGE 28

Objective

PAGE 29

Scope of the Watermelon Analysis

PAGE 30

Methodology l l

PAGE 31

Overview

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Vegetables 46.0% Fruits 51.0% Other 3.0%

PAGE 36

Fruits and Vegetables Increasing Demand of Fruits and Vegetables

PAGE 38

Nutrition Facts of Fruits and Vegetables

PAGE 40

Consumer Aspects of Fruit and Vegetable Markets

PAGE 41

Distribution System of Fruit and Vegetable Markets

PAGE 45

Fruit and Vegetable Market Review

PAGE 48

Fruits and Melons

PAGE 49

www.honeydew.org www.cantaloupe.org www.honeydew.org Watermelons

PAGE 50

History of Watermelon Physical Characteristics

PAGE 51

Citru llus Lanatus Composition and Nutritive Value of Watermelon

PAGE 53

Types and Varieties of Watermelon

PAGE 54

Growth, Picking, Storage and Utilization of Watermelon

PAGE 57

Distribution System of Watermelon

PAGE 58

Production of Watermelon

PAGE 60

Consumption of Watermelon

PAGE 61

Shipment and Trade

PAGE 62

Generic Advertising

PAGE 70

The National Watermelon Promotion Board

PAGE 73

www.watermelon.org

PAGE 76

Food Safety Issues Overview of Food Safety

PAGE 77

http://msucares.com/health/food_safety/

PAGE 79

http://www.csrees.usda.gov/Extension/ Food Safety for Fresh Fruits and Vegetables

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Food Safety for Melons and Watermelons

PAGE 82

www.gaps.cornell.edu hydrovac

PAGE 83

www.watermelon.org

PAGE 85

9.5 10.4 11.7 12.4 1996 2001 2004 2005 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Percent of Sales Vegetables 46.0% Fruits 51.0% Other 3.0% Retail 56.0% Food Service 44.0%

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Random-weight Fruit 31.0% Fresh-cut Fruit 3.0% Packaged Salad 11.0% Store-brand Fresh-cut 2.0% Packaged Fresh-cut 4.0% Random-weight Vegetabl 33.0% Floral 2.0% Other 8.0% Organic Produce 2.0% Specialty Produce 4.0%

PAGE 87

Conventional Supermark 56.0% Supercenters 20.0% Wholesale Clubs 16.0% Grocery Stores 3.0% Other 5.0% 25.5 26.7 26.3 37.3 38.2 40.3 40.6 43.3 47.9 51.6 1980199019951999200020012002200320042005 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Share of Sales(%)

PAGE 88

Source: USDA 2003

PAGE 92

---Acres ----Cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt $1000 -= Not available. Sources: USDA, NASS, Vegetables Annual Summary (1950 81 and 1992 2007). USDA, ERS for 1982 91.

PAGE 93

-= Estimates not available. 1/ TX data for 1990 and 91 estimated by ERS. States sorted based on 2002 values. Sources: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service, Vegetables Annual Summary and State Statistical Service Offices.

PAGE 94

Cents/pound ($/cwt) Source: NASS (198081, 19922008), California County Agric. Commissioners (198291), State Statistical Offices for all others during 198291. Hawaii data from the HI State Statistical Office.

PAGE 95

-Pounds --$/cwt --= not available. f = ERS forecast; 1/ Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, USDA. Includes any processing uses. From 1982 to 1991, production was estimated by ERS based on available. State data adjusted to the national level; 2/ from 198291, the season average price data were estimated by ERS using State values; 3/ Source: U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Dept. of Commerce. H.S. import codes=0807113000, 0807114000; export code=0807110000; 4/ Deflated by the GDP implicit price defl ator, 2000=100; Source: Compiled and computed by USDA, Economic Research Service.

PAGE 96

1/ Percent of the population that ate at the food source over a two day period or percent of the population in each category. Data based on number of servings. 2/ Serving proportion divided by population percentage; Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service, 1998. 199496 Continuing Survey of Food Intakes by Individuals and 1994 96 Diet and Health Knowledge Survey.

PAGE 97

1/ Excludes seed trade. Exports prior to 1990 were likely understated due to under-r eporting of exports to Canada. 2/ Exports less imports. Parentheses denote negative values; Source: Compiled by ERS from data of U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau.

PAGE 98

-= Not available; 1/ Data after 1990 may not be fully consistent with prior years. In 1990, U.S. exports to Canada reflect data supplied by Canada for their imports of U.S. watermelon. This was done to alleviate chronic under reporting of U.S. exports to Canada; Source: Compiled by ERS from data of U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau.

PAGE 100

Overview of Research Data

PAGE 101

Description and Definition of Variables

PAGE 102

Descriptive Statistics of Melon Variables

PAGE 103

Overview of Melon Market

PAGE 104

Seasonality of Melon Market

PAGE 106

Regional Consumption of Melon Market

PAGE 108

Seeded and Seedless Melon

PAGE 111

Melon Prices

PAGE 113

Descriptive Statistics of Demographic Variables

PAGE 115

Descriptive Statistics of NWPB Expenditure NWPB Annual Expenditure

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NWPB Monthly Expenditure and Revenue

PAGE 122

786.73 770.09 772.23 805.84 795.66 20032004200520062007 0.00 200.00 400.00 600.00 800.00 1000.00 Thousands(pound)Cantaloupes 108.96 102.59 94.39 115.63 118.42 20032004200520062007 0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 120.00 140.00 Thousands(pound)Hondydews 22.41 18.38 22.12 29.27 36.77 20032004200520062007 0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 Thousands(pound) 1263.15 1275.19 1351.35 1452.00 1271.30 20032004200520062007 0.00 200.00 400.00 600.00 800.00 1000.00 1200.00 1400.00 1600.00 Thousands(pound)Mixed Melons Watermelons

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546.09 536.03 574.39 622.13 652.60 20032004200520062007 0.00 100.00 200.00 300.00 400.00 500.00 600.00 700.00 Thousands(pound)Cantaloupes 120.15 109.34 113.92 115.46 104.47 20032004200520062007 0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 120.00 140.00 Thousands(pound)Hondydews 46.09 41.39 52.17 63.10 73.77 20032004200520062007 0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 Thousands(pound) 633.72 666.08 749.01 833.07 862.24 20032004200520062007 0.00 200.00 400.00 600.00 800.00 1000.00 Thousands(pound)Mixed Melons Watermelons

PAGE 127

Thousands

PAGE 132

373.07 271.54 265.61 244.26 195.09 209.31 167.16 185.38 187.44 169.49 890.07 1003.65 1085.74 1207.74 1076.21 424.41 498.92 563.63 645.63 692.75 Quantity(pound) Value(dollar)

PAGE 136

Figure 5-2. Demographic Distributions for 8 Regions in USA. Demo Demo-subgroup Region 1Region 2Region 3Region 4Region 5Region 6Region 7Region 8 EDUCATION HIGH SCHOOL OR LESS 21.44%35.94%33.72%33.53%30.26%31.24%34.10%28.23% COLLEGE 64.17%55.22%54.62%52.77%59.38%57.69%55.22%62.05% POST COLLEGE GRADUATE 14.39%8.84%11.65%13.70%10.37%11.06%10.68%9.73% HOUSEHOLD SIZE 1 MEMBER 17.66%16.99%15.48%18.41%17.62%13.86%16.22%16.78% 2 MEMBERS 40.43%36.73%37.83%38.57%35.78%36.14%38.07%37.60% 3 MEMBERS 17.38%17.49%22.38%18.34%19.31%20.42%19.62%19.87% 4+ MEMBERS 24.52%28.79%24.31%24.68%27.28%29.58%26.09%25.77% INCOME Under $25000 24.48%27.56%31.42%28.65%30.76%33.67%33.93%29.73% $25/$49.9 26.47%31.93%29.57%27.15%29.68%31.87%31.67%33.68% $50/$74.9 19.90%19.11%16.50%18.43%17.39%16.33%16.30%16.88% $75 plus 29.14%21.40%22.51%25.77%22.15%18.13%18.10%19.72% CHILDREN NONE <18 62.68%58.04%60.18%64.12%58.52%54.32%58.85%56.98% ANY CHILDREN 37.32%41.96%39.82%35.88%41.47%45.68%41.16%43.03% UNDER 6 YEARS 18.14%21.55%19.57%17.64%21.24%25.09%22.35%23.99% 6-12 YEARS 18.66%20.43%19.40%18.24%20.07%21.49%19.78%20.83% 13-17 YEARS 13.27%15.16%13.63%12.23%14.69%15.42%12.98%14.13% EMPLOYMENT FULL EMPLOYMENT 40.65%39.85%44.81%39.45%44.82%41.64%37.71%36.81% PART TIME 22.44%21.66%17.51%23.89%24.34%16.52%17.95%23.22% NOT EMPLOYED 36.91%38.49%37.68%36.66%30.84%41.84%44.34%39.97% AGE UNDER 25 6.60%7.99%10.26%7.01%11.26%10.06%8.32%12.45% 25-54 69.72%68.39%67.80%66.74%64.45%67.57%65.76%66.74% 55-65+ 23.68%23.62%21.94%26.25%24.29%22.37%25.92%20.82% METRO SALES AREA 50000-249999 5.54%6.99%9.14%5.95%11.59%14.87%8.64%9.73% 250000-499999 7.62%8.54%7.39%8.19%5.86%6.91%17.65%11.32% 500000-999999 9.49%8.89%8.04%11.45%4.17%10.07%14.88%8.23% 1000000-249999923.42%24.47%29.10%27.47%14.92%20.48%24.76%34.12% 2500000 AND OVER 52.24%30.71%17.79%36.27%26.52%26.21%13.33%10.14% NON-MSA 1.71%20.40%28.53%10.67%36.95%21.47%20.73%26.46%

PAGE 139

Administration 16.8% Marketing 30.1% Communication 20.9% Industry Relations 14.4% Production Research 8.1% Meeting 4.3% Federal Agency 5.5%

PAGE 143

Overview Demand Theory

PAGE 154

Engel Aggregation or Addingup

PAGE 155

Cournot Aggregation Homogeneity of Degree Zero

PAGE 156

Negativity

PAGE 157

Symmetry

PAGE 158

Empirical Allocation Demand System

PAGE 160

DoubleLog Model Translog Model

PAGE 162

Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln

PAGE 164

n J n J n k kj jk n J jj ij ij iiipp p I p w1 11 1 0))ln()ln( 2 1 )ln(()ln()ln()( ln ln

PAGE 165

ln ln n J j j ii ij ij i ipwIp w1 0 **)ln( )ln()ln(

PAGE 167

Demographic Variables in Demand System

PAGE 168

Demographic Translating

PAGE 169

Demographic Scaling

PAGE 170

Study on Scanner Data Overview

PAGE 171

Sources of Scanner Data

PAGE 172

Opportunities

PAGE 174

Challenges

PAGE 175

Issues Related to Scanner Data

PAGE 177

Overview Model Specification Overview of AIDS Model

PAGE 179

Main Str ucture of AIDS Model in This Study i m m m wi w1 wi wilt i

PAGE 180

i l l t Pj P1 RGl RGG2 RGGl l RGG1 RGG1 RG2 RGG2 RGG1 RGl RG2 RG8

PAGE 181

SSk SSSk SSS3 SSSk k SSS1 SS3 SSS3 SSS1 SSk SS2 SS12 i i* i i i il 11 12

PAGE 182

13 14 15

PAGE 183

wi wi Pi wi (Pi Qim ii wi Pj

PAGE 184

ij wi m im wi SSk k ith

PAGE 185

wi RGl l ith ii ii* ij ij* im ESSk ERGl Variation of AIDS model

PAGE 186

Scenario (1) Original Price V.S. Deseasonalized Price lnpj Scenario (2) On Season V.S. Off Season SSXXk k k k k k k SSXX5 SSXXk k SSXk

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SSXX1 SSX3 SSXX3 SSXX1 SSXk SSX2 SSX5 SSXXk SSXk SSXXk k k k k k k SSXX5 SSXXk k SSXk SSXX1 SSXk Model Estimation

PAGE 188

Variables and Parameters for the AIDS Model in the First Group

PAGE 189

Variables and Parameters for the AIDS Model in the Second Group

PAGE 191

Variables and Parameters for the AIDS Model in the Third Group

PAGE 197

Note: tvalue is at five percent lever =1.96

PAGE 199

Coefficients In Equations Coefficients in TSP program Estimate t statistic P value Estimate t statistic P value Seasonal parameters Original Price Deseasonalized Price 112 CG112 0.062363 5.32174 [.000] 0.063151 5.761 [.000] 212 CG212 0.031877 3.0714 [.002] 0.020493 2.15994 [.031] 312 CG312 5.63E 03 0.842222 [.400] 2.75E 02 3.99608 [.000] 412 CG412 0.023661 4.38004 [.000] 0.051802 8.40782 [.000] 512 CG512 1.19E 03 0.675826 [.499] 4.32E 03 2.19178 [.028] 111 CG111 0.046072 5.30566 [.000] 0.053005 6.35244 [.000] 211 CG211 0.026736 3.41968 [.001] 0.0006337 0.0869 [.931] 311 CG311 7 .90E 03 1.65944 [.097] 2.10E 02 4.20386 [.000] 411 CG411 0.011847 3.13563 [.002] 0.029666 7.03152 [.000] 511 CG511 4.16E 04 0.324062 [.746] 1.70E 03 1.20685 [.227] 110 CG110 0.055434 7.84366 [.000] 0.098506 14.6895 [.000] 210 CG210 0.057726 9 .38149 [.000] 0.099817 16.5707 [.000] 310 CG310 5.79E 04 0.138383 [.890] 1.91E 03 0.469529 [.639] 410 CG410 9.88E 06 3.87E 03 [.997] 1.83E 03 7.10E 01 [.478] 510 CG510 2.86E 03 3.41254 [.001] 1.39E 03 1.68453 [.092] 19 CG109 8.78E 03 1.2995 1 [.194] 1.72E 02 2.47498 [.013] 29 CG209 1.50E 03 0.263357 [.792] 2.58E 03 0.450869 [.652] 39 CG309 3.74E 03 1.34596 [.178] 6.13E 03 2.19399 [.028] 49 CG409 0.010141 5.51212 [.000] 0.019614 10.0039 [.000] 59 CG509 8.73E 04 1.22068 [.222] 1.18E 03 1.68301 [.092] 18 CG108 0.06354 6.13581 [.000] 0.104872 10.2667 [.000] 28 CG208 0.068031 7.93365 [.000] 0.096501 11.3235 [.000] 38 CG308 0.013698 2.22707 [.026] 0.013824 2.2871 [.022] 48 CG408 0.013947 4.0128 [.000] 0.024831 6.6 4333 [.000] 58 CG508 4.74E 03 3.74402 [.000] 2.64E 03 1.93554 [.053] 17 CG107 0.105318 11.2729 [.000] 0.165016 17.3907 [.000] 27 CG207 0.08669 10.0214 [.000] 0.133657 15.2459 [.000] 37 CG307 7.81E 03 1.59985 [.110] 8.90E 03 1.84478 [.065] 47 CG407 0.018135 5.57701 [.000] 0.026858 7.6886 [.000] 57 CG507 7.32E 03 6.12264 [.000] 4.40E 03 3.40536 [.001] 16 CG106 0.10942 11.0586 [.000] 0.169637 17.8961 [.000] 26 CG206 0.088018 9.98178 [.000] 0.133716 15.6147 [.000] 36 CG306 7.7 2E 03 1.44443 [.149] 1.12E 02 2.13611 [.033] 46 CG406 0.017661 4.99251 [.000] 0.025159 6.78486 [.000] 56 CG506 3.98E 03 3.04416 [.002] 4.23E 04 0.319324 [.749]

PAGE 200

Coefficients In Equations Coefficients in TSP program Estimat e t statistic P value Estimate t statistic P value Seasonal parameters Original Price Deseasonalized Price 15 CG105 0.106655 11.0076 [.000] 0.19219 21.6188 [.000] 25 CG205 0.085814 10.2763 [.000] 0.159298 20.3807 [.000] 35 CG305 3.23E 03 0 .665043 [.506] 8.49E 03 1.84881 [.064] 45 CG405 0.016025 5.01644 [.000] 0.019849 6.24236 [.000] 55 CG505 1.59E 03 1.55631 [.120] 4.55E 03 4.42113 [.000] 14 CG104 6.34E 03 0.987254 [.324] 2.18E 02 3.40339 [.001] 24 CG204 2.33E 03 0.425 225 [.671] 4.31E 02 7.85312 [.000] 34 CG304 2.05E 04 0.085168 [.932] 7.61E 03 3.26245 [.001] 44 CG404 8.30E 04 0.471419 [.637] 1.02E 02 5.85238 [.000] 54 CG504 3.39E 03 5.58593 [.000] 3.46E 03 6.68842 [.000] 13 CG103 0.074412 11.0141 [. 000] 0.141739 23.6502 [.000] 23 CG203 0.073196 11.0711 [.000] 0.151885 24.6742 [.000] 33 CG303 2.95E 03 0.856715 [.392] 1.21E 02 3.97099 [.000] 43 CG403 7.74E 03 3.00091 [.003] 4.12E 03 1.60404 [.109] 53 CG503 3.58E 03 4.70235 [.000] 2.15E 03 2.96207 [.003] 12 CG102 0.081605 11.2088 [.000] 0.133023 19.2242 [.000] 22 CG202 0.067802 9.88928 [.000] 0.11928 17.2206 [.000] 32 CG302 2.17E 03 0.552526 [.581] 8.50E 03 2.23119 [.026] 42 CG402 0.018203 5.46417 [.000] 0.022826 6.27473 [.000] 52 CG502 2.23E 03 2.45921 [.014] 5.81E 04 0.619017 [.536] Note: t value is at five percent lever =1.96

PAGE 201

Equation/Dependent variable EQ1/w1 EQ1/w2 EQ1/w3 EQ1/w4 Original Price Mean of dep. var. 0.419699 0.433808 0.088133 0.050598 Std. dev. of dep. var. 0.141479 0.105057 0.040182 0.033079 Sum of squared residuals 0.980917 0.900444 0.185617 0.137556 Variance of residuals 1.78E 03 1.63E 03 3.36E 04 2.49E 04 Std. err or of regression 0.042155 0.040389 0.018337 0.015786 R squared 0.911072 0.851936 0.791375 0.771849 LM het. test 3.24111 [.072] 7.53705 [.006] 24.7782 [.000] 86.2130 [.000] Durbin Watson 1.0739 1.0145 0.802899 0.327703 Deseasonalized Price Mean of dep. var. 0.424538 0.428236 0.087523 0.05216 Std. dev. of dep. var. 0.172057 0.128432 0.046063 0.039864 Sum of squared residuals 0.911312 0.885733 0.185686 0.174105 Variance of residuals 1.65E 03 1.60E 03 3.36E 04 3.15E 04 Std. error of regression 0.040632 0.040057 0.018341 0.01776 R squared 0.944135 0.902546 0.841176 0.801167 LM het. test 2.42311 [.120] 6.93191 [.008] 37.9658 [.000] 99.2128 [.000] Durbin Watson 1.10691 1.00167 0.851684 0.346225

PAGE 203

Note: t value is at five percent lever =1.96

PAGE 205

Note: t value is at five percent lever =1.96

PAGE 208

Note: tvalue is at five percent lever =1.96

PAGE 209

Note: tvalue is at five percent lever =1.96

PAGE 210

Note: tvalue is at five percent lever =1.96

PAGE 214

Demand Elasticities and Simulation for the First Group of AIDS Model

PAGE 215

Demand Elasticities of AIDS Models in the First Group

PAGE 216

Simulation Analysis of AIDS Models in the First Group Income e ffects of AIDS m odels in the f irst g roup

PAGE 218

Watermelon p rice e ffects of AIDS m odels in the f irst g roup

PAGE 220

Cantaloupe p rice e ffects of AIDS m odels in the f irst g roup

PAGE 221

Honeydew p rice e ffects of AIDS Models in the f irst g roup

PAGE 222

Regional e ffects of AIDS m odels in the f irst g roup

PAGE 223

S easonal e ffects of AIDS m odels in the f irst g roup

PAGE 225

Demand Elasticities and Simulation for the Second and Third Group of AIDS Model Demand Elasticities of AIDS Models in the Second and Third Group

PAGE 226

Simulation Analysis of AIDS Models in the Second and Third Group

PAGE 227

Income e ffects of A IDS m odels in the s econd and t hird g roup

PAGE 228

Watermelon p rice e ffects of AIDS m odels in the s econd and t hird g roup

PAGE 229

Cantaloupe p rice e ffects of AIDS m odels in the s econd and t hird group

PAGE 230

Honeydew p rice e ffects of AIDS m odels in the s econd and t hird g roup

PAGE 231

Regional e ffects of AIDS m odels in the s econd and t hird g roup

PAGE 232

Seasonal e ffects of AIDS m odels in the s econd and t hird g roup

PAGE 287

Summary

PAGE 288

Income Effects

PAGE 289

Watermelon Price Effects

PAGE 290

Cantaloupe Price Effects

PAGE 291

Honeydew Price Effects

PAGE 292

Regional Effects Seasonal Effects

PAGE 293

Considerations for Further Research

PAGE 306

Rotterdam Demand Model

PAGE 308

Linear Expenditure System (LES)

PAGE 310

Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS)

PAGE 311

j c i ji ijp x I pp s

PAGE 312

d d d d (d d (d d d d

PAGE 313

Generalized Addilog Demand System (GADS )