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Essays in Renewable Energy and Emissions Trading

University of Florida Institutional Repository
Permanent Link: http://ufdc.ufl.edu/UFE0022518/00001

Material Information

Title: Essays in Renewable Energy and Emissions Trading
Physical Description: 1 online resource (216 p.)
Language: english
Creator: Kneifel, Joshua
Publisher: University of Florida
Place of Publication: Gainesville, Fla.
Publication Date: 2008

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords: electricity, emissions, energy, environment, environmental, pollution, renewable, utility
Economics -- Dissertations, Academic -- UF
Genre: Economics thesis, Ph.D.
bibliography   ( marcgt )
theses   ( marcgt )
government publication (state, provincial, terriorial, dependent)   ( marcgt )
born-digital   ( sobekcm )
Electronic Thesis or Dissertation

Notes

Abstract: Environmental issues have become a key political issue over the past forty years and has resulted in the enactment of many different environmental policies. The three essays in this dissertation add to the literature of renewable energy policies and sulfur dioxide emissions trading. The first essay ascertains which state policies are accelerating deployment of non-hydropower renewable electricity generation capacity into a states electric power industry. As would be expected, policies that lead to significant increases in actual renewable capacity in that state either set a Renewables Portfolio Standard with a certain level of required renewable capacity or use Clean Energy Funds to directly fund utility-scale renewable capacity construction. A surprising result is that Required Green Power Options, a policy that merely requires all utilities in a state to offer the option for consumers to purchase renewable energy at a premium rate, has a sizable impact on non-hydro renewable capacity in that state. The second essay studies the theoretical impacts fuel contract constraints have on a electricity generating unit's compliance costs of meeting the emissions compliance restrictions set by Phase I of the Title IV SO2 Emissions Trading Program. Fuel contract constraints restrict a utility?s degrees of freedom in coal purchasing options, which can lead to the use of a more expensive compliance option and higher compliance costs. The third essay analytically and empirically shows how fuel contract constraints impact the emissions allowance market and total electric power industry compliance costs. This paper uses generating unit-level simulations to replicate results from previous studies and show that fuel contracts appear to explain a large portion (65%) of the previously unexplained compliance cost simulations. Also, my study considers a more appropriate plant-level decisions for compliance choices by analytically analyzing the plant-level decision-making process to show how cost-minimization at the more complex plant-level may deviate from cost-minimization at the generating unit level.
General Note: In the series University of Florida Digital Collections.
General Note: Includes vita.
Bibliography: Includes bibliographical references.
Source of Description: Description based on online resource; title from PDF title page.
Source of Description: This bibliographic record is available under the Creative Commons CC0 public domain dedication. The University of Florida Libraries, as creator of this bibliographic record, has waived all rights to it worldwide under copyright law, including all related and neighboring rights, to the extent allowed by law.
Statement of Responsibility: by Joshua Kneifel.
Thesis: Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Florida, 2008.
Local: Adviser: Kenny, Lawrence W.

Record Information

Source Institution: UFRGP
Rights Management: Applicable rights reserved.
Classification: lcc - LD1780 2008
System ID: UFE0022518:00001

Permanent Link: http://ufdc.ufl.edu/UFE0022518/00001

Material Information

Title: Essays in Renewable Energy and Emissions Trading
Physical Description: 1 online resource (216 p.)
Language: english
Creator: Kneifel, Joshua
Publisher: University of Florida
Place of Publication: Gainesville, Fla.
Publication Date: 2008

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords: electricity, emissions, energy, environment, environmental, pollution, renewable, utility
Economics -- Dissertations, Academic -- UF
Genre: Economics thesis, Ph.D.
bibliography   ( marcgt )
theses   ( marcgt )
government publication (state, provincial, terriorial, dependent)   ( marcgt )
born-digital   ( sobekcm )
Electronic Thesis or Dissertation

Notes

Abstract: Environmental issues have become a key political issue over the past forty years and has resulted in the enactment of many different environmental policies. The three essays in this dissertation add to the literature of renewable energy policies and sulfur dioxide emissions trading. The first essay ascertains which state policies are accelerating deployment of non-hydropower renewable electricity generation capacity into a states electric power industry. As would be expected, policies that lead to significant increases in actual renewable capacity in that state either set a Renewables Portfolio Standard with a certain level of required renewable capacity or use Clean Energy Funds to directly fund utility-scale renewable capacity construction. A surprising result is that Required Green Power Options, a policy that merely requires all utilities in a state to offer the option for consumers to purchase renewable energy at a premium rate, has a sizable impact on non-hydro renewable capacity in that state. The second essay studies the theoretical impacts fuel contract constraints have on a electricity generating unit's compliance costs of meeting the emissions compliance restrictions set by Phase I of the Title IV SO2 Emissions Trading Program. Fuel contract constraints restrict a utility?s degrees of freedom in coal purchasing options, which can lead to the use of a more expensive compliance option and higher compliance costs. The third essay analytically and empirically shows how fuel contract constraints impact the emissions allowance market and total electric power industry compliance costs. This paper uses generating unit-level simulations to replicate results from previous studies and show that fuel contracts appear to explain a large portion (65%) of the previously unexplained compliance cost simulations. Also, my study considers a more appropriate plant-level decisions for compliance choices by analytically analyzing the plant-level decision-making process to show how cost-minimization at the more complex plant-level may deviate from cost-minimization at the generating unit level.
General Note: In the series University of Florida Digital Collections.
General Note: Includes vita.
Bibliography: Includes bibliographical references.
Source of Description: Description based on online resource; title from PDF title page.
Source of Description: This bibliographic record is available under the Creative Commons CC0 public domain dedication. The University of Florida Libraries, as creator of this bibliographic record, has waived all rights to it worldwide under copyright law, including all related and neighboring rights, to the extent allowed by law.
Statement of Responsibility: by Joshua Kneifel.
Thesis: Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Florida, 2008.
Local: Adviser: Kenny, Lawrence W.

Record Information

Source Institution: UFRGP
Rights Management: Applicable rights reserved.
Classification: lcc - LD1780 2008
System ID: UFE0022518:00001


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c754e8e51652e9c148a74b392a591d761e1c7f4d







ESSAYS IN RENEWABLE ENERGY AND EMISSIONS TRADING


By

JOSHUA D. KNEIFEL



















A DISSERTATION PRESENTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL
OF THE UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT
OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF
DOCTORATE OF PHILOSOPHY

UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA

2008


































2008 Joshua D. Kneifel


































To My Parents, who have supported me through all of my academic achievements.









ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

I thank my supervisory committee chair, Lawrence Kenny, along with my other

committee members (Sanford Berg, Jonathan Hamilton, and Jane Luzar) for their

comments and advise regarding my dissertation. Special thanks goes to Paul Sotkiewicz

for his interest, guidance, and support in my research. I also thank my parents for their

never-ending support.









TABLE OF CONTENTS


page

ACKNOW LEDGMENTS ................................. 4

LIST OF TABLES ....................... ............. 9

LIST OF FIGURES ....................... ........... 10

ABSTRACT . . . . . . . . . . 12

CHAPTER

1 EFFECTS OF STATE GOVERNMENT POLICIES ON ELECTRICITY
CAPACITY FROM NON-HYDROPOWER RENEWABLE SOURCES ..... 14

1.1 Introduction . . . . . . . .. 14
1.2 Literature Review ......... ...................... 16
1.3 M odel . . . . .. . . . 18
1.4 Variables and Data .......... ................... 21
1.4.1 Economic and Political Variables: Wit ....... ......... 21
1.4.2 Regulatory Policy Variables: Rit .................. 27
1.5 Statistical Specifications and Empirical Analysis ....... ....... 33
1.5.1 Economic and Political Variables: Wit ................ 34
1.5.2 Regulatory Policy Variables: Rit ............ .. .37
1.5.3 State Fixed-Effects Variables: Sit ........ . . 40
1.5.4 Year Variables: Tit .................. ........ .. 40
1.6 Conclusions ............... .............. .. 41

2 EFFECTS OF COAL CONTRACT CONSTRAINTS ON SO2 TRADING
PROGRAM COMPLIANCE DECISIONS ............... .. .. .. 47

2.1 Introduction .................. ................ .. 47
2.2 Policy Background ............ . . . ...... 48
2.2.1 Title IV of the Clean Air Act Amendment . . ..... 48
2.2.1.1 Phase I of Title IV ................. . .. 49
2.2.1.2 Phase II of Title IV ................. . .. 50
2.2.2 Clean Air Interstate Rule .................. .... .. 51
2.3 Literature Review .................. ............. .. 52
2.3.1 Title IV: Phase I ............ . . ...... 52
2.3.2 Utility-Level Models of Compliance Costs . . ..... 55
2.3.3 Long-Term Coal Contracts ................ .... .. 56
2.4 Inefficiencies Resulting from Coal Contract Constraints . .... 57
2.5 Model and Parameters ............. . . ...... 60
2.6 Generating Unit Level Decision-Making Process . . ..... 62
2.6.1 Generating Unit's Problem ...... .......... . .. 63
2.6.2 First-Order Conditions ................. .... .. 64









2.6.3 ('!, ii :terizing a Unit's Spot Market Fuel C('!i... and Marginal
Cost of Abatement from Fuel Switching . . . 65
2.6.3.1 Necessary conditions for using both high sulfur and low
sulfur coal ...... ........ ... .. ...... 65
2.6.3.2 Only high sulfur coal use: Necessary conditions . 65
2.6.3.3 Only low sulfur coal use: Necessary conditions ...... ..66
2.6.4 Coal Use Under a High Sulfur Coal Contract Constraint ...... 66
2.6.5 Coal Use under a Low Sulfur Coal Contract Constraint ...... ..68
2.6.6 Generating Unit-Level Compliance Costs . . ..... 70
2.6.7 Generating Unit's Net Allowance Position: Excess Demand
Correspondence .................. .. 72
2.6.7.1 Cost savings of fuel switching versus allowance purchases
when PA > MCA'.. .................. .. 74
2.6.7.2 Effects of high sulfur coal contracts on excess demand and
costs .................. .......... .. 74
2.6.7.3 Cost savings of allowance purchases versus fuel switching
when PA < MCA'.. ............... .. .. 80
2.6.7.4 Effects of low sulfur coal contracts . . ... 80
2.6.7.5 Fuel switching versus allowance purchases when PA
M CAf'" ...... . .. ... ..... 85
2.6.8 Generating Unit's Scrubber Installation C('!i i. . . 86
2.6.8.1 When will a generating unit install a scrubber? . 86
2.6.8.2 Different marginal costs of abatement . . .... 87
2.6.8.3 Excess demand correspondence . . ..... 87
2.6.9 Impact of Coal Contracts on Excess Demand Correspondence . 89
2.6.9.1 Impact of a binding high sulfur coal contract . ... 90
2.6.9.2 Impact of a binding low sulfur coal contract . ... 100
2.7 Possible Implications on the Allowance Market and Industry Compliance
C costs . . . . . . . . .. 109
2.8 Conclusions .................. ................ .. 110

3 THE EFFECT OF FUEL CONTRACTING CONSTRAINTS ON SO2 TRADING
PROGRAM COMPLIANCE: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE . . 127

3.1 Introduction ............. .. ........ ..... 127
3.2 Review of Generating Unit Model ................ ... 128
3.2.1 Generating Unit Problem .................. ...... 128
3.2.2 Optimal Compliance C('!. ~ .. ............... 129
3.3 Allowance Market Equilibrium ..... . . .... 132
3.4 Comparative Statics: Effects on the Allowance Market . .... 134
3.4.1 Comparative Statics: Effect of Relative Fuel Cost on the Allowance
Market ................... ............... 134
3.4.2 Comparative Statics: Effect of Coal Contracts on the Allowance
Market Given the Scrubber C('! i... .................. 135
3.4.2.1 Impact of high sulfur coal contract on allowance market 135










3.4.2.2 Impact of low sulfur coal contract on allowance market 136
3.4.3 Comparative Statics: Effect of Coal Contracts on the Allowance
Market with Endogenous Scrubber Choice . . ..... 136
3.4.3.1 High sulfur coal contract binds . . .... 137
3.4.3.2 Low sulfur coal contract binds . . .... 138
3.5 Compliance Costs . . . .. . ... 139
3.5.1 Compliance Costs with Coal Contracts Relative to Compliance Costs
from Previous Studies .................. ....... 139
3.5.2 Total Industry Compliance Cost .... . . .. 141
3.5.3 Impact of Allowance Allocation on Compliance Costs Given Scrubber
the Ci('... .............. .............. 144
3.5.4 Impact of Allowance Allocation with Endogenous Scrubber ('C!i.. 146
3.6 Simulation M odel .................. ............. 147
3.6.1 Introduction .................. ............ 147
3.6.2 Data ............ .......... .............. 147


3.6.2.1 Fuel data.... . . .....
3.6.2.2 Allowance, actual emissions, and demand data .
3.6.2.3 Technical generator and scrubber data . .
3.6.3 Simulation Model Design... . .....
3.6.4 Simulation Results . . .
3.6.4.1 Total industry costs and allowance market results .
3.6.4.2 Industry and generating unit coal use . .
3.6.4.3 Generating unit scrubber installation choices .


. 147
. 150
. 151
. 152
. 152
. 153
. 157
. 158


3.6.4.4 Impact of allowance allocation on the allowance market
and compliance costs ............... .. 160
3.6.4.5 Summary of simulation results . . ..... 160
3.7 Plant Level Decision-Making Process .................. ... 161
3.7.1 Introduction .................. ............ .. 161
3.7.2 Plant-Level Problem .................. ..... .. 163
3.7.3 First-Order Conditions . . ..... .... 164
3.7.4 C(!i i :terizing a Unit's Spot Market Fuel C('!i. . ... 165
3.7.4.1 Case 1: Necessary conditions for using both high sulfur
and low sulfur spot market coal . . . 166
3.7.4.2 Case 2: Necessary conditions for only high sulfur spot market
coal use ...... ..... ........ 167
3.7.4.3 Case 3: Necessary conditions for only low sulfur spot market
coal use . . . . . .. .. 167
3.7.5 Excess Demand Correspondence ..... . . .. 168
3.7.6 C('! i :terizing a Generating Unit's Contract Fuel ('Ch!., .. .. 170
3.7.6.1 Case 1: Necessary conditions for high sulfur contract coal
use at Generating Unit i" ...... . . .... 170
3.7.6.2 Case 2: Necessary conditions for low sulfur contract coal
use at generating unit "i" . . . 171
3.7.7 "Non-Affected" Generating Units at an "Affected" Plant ..... 171









3.7.7.1 C'! i ,i.terization of "non-affected" generating units at an
il!, l. 1" plant ...... ... ... ... ..... 172
3.7.7.2 Nun-affected" generating units and high sulfur coal
contracts .......... ...... 173
3.7.8 Scrubber Installation C(!..... .. ............ ... 174
3.7.8.1 Marginal cost of abatement with and without a scrubber 174
3.7.9 A Plant's Preferred Order of Scrubber Installation . .... 176
3.7.9.1 At which generating units will a plant install a scrubber? 177
3.7.9.2 At what allowance price will a plant install a scrubber at
a given generating unit? .................. 178
3.7.9.3 Scrubber installation and high sulfur coal contracts . 179
3.7.9.4 Scrubber installation and low sulfur coal contracts ..... 181
3.7.10 Scrubber Installation Example: Plant with Two Affected Generating
Units ...... ...... ..... ... .......... 182
3.7.10.1 Case 1: Install no scrubbers ................ .. 183
3.7.10.2 Case 2: Install one scrubber . . 184
3.7.10.3 Case 3: Install two scrubbers . . . 185
3.7.11 Scrubber Installation Example: Plant with One Affected and One
Non-Affected Generating Units ............. . 186
3.7.12 Summary of Plant Level Results .............. .. 187
3.8 CONCLUSIONS .................. ............. 188

A CONTRACT IMPACTS ON COSTS AND SCRUBBER INSTALLATION
INDIFFERENCE PRICE .................. . ..... 199

A.1 Impacts on Total Costs and Compliance Costs from a Coal Contract
Constraint .................. ............ .. 199
A.2 Derivation of Cost-Minimizing Input Use to Find P . . .. .. 205

B MARKET EQUILIBRIUM AND SIMULATION DESIGN . . ... 206

B.1 Conditions for Existence of an Equilibrium ..... . . ..... 206
B.2 Technical Details of Simulation Model Design . . ..... 208

REFERENCES .................. ................ .. .. 211

BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH .................. ............. .. 216










LIST OF TABLES


Tabl

1-1

1-2

1-3

1-4

2-1

2-2

2-3

2-4

2-5

2-6

2-7

2-8

3-1

3-2

3-3

3-4

3-5

3-6

3-7


Dependent and Control Variables . ......

Regressions Results . .............

Policy Variables . ... .. .. .. .. ... .

Variable Effects of Significant Variables . ..

Phase I Compliance Cost Estimates . ....

High Sulfur Coal Contract: Assumptions . .

High Sulfur Coal Contract: Results . ....

Low Sulfur Coal Contract Examples: Assumptions .

Low Sulfur Coal Contract Examples: Results .

Example Epsilon Magnitude: Case 1 . ....

Example Epsilon Magnitude: Case 2 . ....

Example Epsilon Magnitude . ........

Example: Contract Coal Distribution . ...

Sulfur Conversion by Fuel Type . ......

Simulation Results . ..............

Impact of Contract Constraint on Scrubber ('C! ..i .

Simulations with Engineering Data . .....

Impacts of a Reduction in the Allowance Allocation o

Math Example: Two Affected Units . ....


e


page

.. . 43

.. . 44

.. . 45

.. . 46

. .. . 13

.. . 114

.. . 114

. . 114

... . 15

. .. . 16

.. . 117

. .. . 18

.. . 190

.. . 190

.. . 19 1

... . 92

. .. . 9 2

f 10' . . 192

. .. . 9 2










LIST OF FIGURES


Figu

2-1

2-2


page


Savings


re

The SO2 Allowance Price . ..........

Excess Demand Correspondence and Compliance Cost
Over Allowance Purchasing .. ...........

High Sulfur Contract: Shift in Minimum Excess Dema

No Contract: Compliance Costs . ......

High Sulfur Contract: Compliance and Total Costs .

High Sulfur Contract: Relative Savings from Contract

Cost Savings from Using Allowances Over Fuel Switch


2-8 Low Sulfur Contract


No Contract: Compliance Costs . .......

Low Sulfur Coal Contract: MCA8'c . .

Low Sulfur Coal Contract: MCA8'c . .

Compliance Costs: PA = MCA8' . .

High Sulfur Coal Contract . ..........

Low Sulfur Coal Contract . ...........

Excess Demand Correspondence: MCA"'" < P ...

Excess Demand Correspondence: MCA"'" > PA .

Impact of a High Sulfur Coal Contract: MCA"' < PA

Impact of a High Sulfur Coal Contract: MCA"'" > PS

Impact of a Low Sulfur Coal Contract: MCA"'j > P .

Impact of a low sulfur Coal Contract: MCA^s < P .

Excess Demand Correspondence . .......

Impact of High Sulfur Coal Contract . .....

Impact of Low Sulfur Coal Contract . .....

Excess Demand Correspondence with Scrubber ('C!I .,

Impacts of High Sulfur Coal Contract . ....


from Fuel


. 119

Switching


n





(

ii


d . . 120

. .. . 20

.. . 20

Coal . . ... 121

ig . . . 121

. .. . 121

. .. . 22

. .. . 22

. .. . 22

. .. . 23

. .. . 23

. .. . 23

. ... . 24

. ... . 24

. . . 125

. . . 125

. . . 125

. . . 26

. .. . 93

. .. . 93

. .. . 94

. . . 94

. .. . 95


2-9

2-10

2-11

2-12

2-13

2-14

2-15

2-16

2-17

2-18

2-19

2-20

3-1

3-2

3-3

3-4

3-5










3-6

3-7

3-8

3-9

3-10

B-1

B-2


Impacts of Low Sulfur Coal Contract . .........

Given Scrubber C('!. Shift from High Sulfur Contract .

Given Scrubber C('!... Shift from Low Sulfur Contract .

With Scrubber C('!. .. Shift from High Sulfur Contract .

With Scrubber C('!. Shift from Low Sulfur Contract .

Upper Semi-Continuous Correspondence . .......

Correspondence with Scrubber C('!i.... .........


.. 195

. . 96

. . 96

. . 97

. . 98

.. 210

.. 210









Abstract of Dissertation Presented to the Graduate School
of the University of Florida in Partial Fulfillment of the
Requirements for the Degree of Doctorate of Philosophy

ESSAYS IN RENEWABLE ENERGY AND EMISSIONS TRADING

By

Joshua D. Kneifel

August 2008

C'!I i': Lawrence Kenny
Major: Economics

Environmental issues have become a key political issue over the past forty years and

has resulted in the enactment of many different environmental policies. The three e -(- Z

in this dissertation add to the literature of renewable energy policies and sulfur dioxide

emissions trading.

The first e-i c ascertains which state policies are accelerating deployment of

non-hydropower renewable electricity generation capacity into a states electric power

industry. As would be expected, policies that lead to significant increases in actual

renewable capacity in that state either set a Renewables Portfolio Standard with a

certain level of required renewable capacity or use Clean Energy Funds to directly fund

Sliil-i --- 1.1 renewable capacity construction. A surprising result is that Required Green

Power Options, a policy that merely requires all utilities in a state to offer the option

for consumers to purchase renewable energy at a premium rate, has a sizable impact on

non-hydro renewable capacity in that state.

The second e-;i- studies the theoretical impacts fuel contract constraints have on

a electricity generating unit's compliance costs of meeting the emissions compliance

restrictions set by Phase I of the Title IV SO2 Emissions Trading Program. Fuel contract

constraints restrict a utility's degrees of freedom in coal purchasing options, which can

lead to the use of a more expensive compliance option and higher compliance costs.









The third E-iv analytically and empirically shows how fuel contract constraints

impact the emissions allowance market and total electric power industry compliance costs.

This paper uses generating unit-level simulations to replicate results from previous studies

and show that fuel contracts appear to explain a large portion (i.' .) of the previously

unexplained compliance cost simulations. Also, my study considers a more appropriate

plant-level decisions for compliance choices by analytically analyzing the plant level

decision-making process to show how cost-minimization at the more complex plant level

may deviate from cost-minimization at the generating unit level.









CHAPTER 1
EFFECTS OF STATE GOVERNMENT POLICIES ON ELECTRICITY CAPACITY
FROM NON-HYDROPOWER RENEWABLE SOURCES

1.1 Introduction

Renewable energy has recently become an important aspect in the U.S. electricity

generation mix and a primary focus of government policy for environmental and energy

security/price volatility reasons. First, the public's growing concern for the environment

and progressively stringent regulation of emissions in the electric power industry has

driven policies to increase the amount of renewable energy in the electricity generation

portfolio. Electricity production from renewable resources creates little, and often zero,

emissions of the pollutants that result from traditional fossil fuel generating technologies.

More renewable energy use helps utilities in their emissions compliance obligations.

Moreover, the prospect of compliance with any future carbon emissions regulation

would further strengthen the incentive to shift toward cleaner electricity generating

technologies.

Second, recent uncertainty in the U.S. energy supply due to political concerns in the

Middle East countries and other foreign oil producing countries as well as volatility in oil

and natural gas prices have led to a push to increase U.S. energy independence through

a greater domestic energy supply and to decrease the impacts on the economy from any

price shocks in the fossil fuel markets, such as the natural gas price spikes in 2000-2001

and following the 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons.2



1 Smith et al. (2000) estimates the displacement of emissions from the Massachusetts
Renewables Portfolio Standard.
2 Bird et al. (2005) explains the market factors behind wind power deployment, which
include the volatility of natural gas prices. GDS Associates (2001) supported this factor
as well in the reasoning behind the enactment of Hawaii's Renewables Portfolio Standard.
The delivered price of natural gas to electric utilities has risen from $2.62/million cubic
foot (\!CF) in 1999 to $8.45/ \!CF in 2005 (EIA Annual Energy Review 2005).









Complementing federal policies such as the production tax credit, state governments

have taken actions to increase renewable energy capacity and generation, with 41 of

the 50 states enacting policies to encourage the use of renewable energy in their state.

Individual state policies show a great deal of variance. The objective of this paper is to

determine which state policies have led to increased deployment of .-.-regate non-hydro

renewable energy capacity into a state's electric power industry.3 The literature on state

renewable energy policies consists mainly of case studies on policy effectiveness. Only one

previous paper uses econometric methods to estimate the effects of various state policies

on renewable capacity. Menz and Vachon (2006) measure the impacts on wind capacity

in 39 states for 1998-2002. In contrast, my paper uses panel data from all 50 states for

1996-2003 to estimate the effects on total nonhydro renewable capacity deployment, not

just wind power capacity deployment. It estimates the effects of additional policies, and

also controls for differences in the market and political environments.

Three distinctly different types of policies are found to be effective at expanding

non-hydro renewable capacity deployment: a command-and-control policy known as a

Renewables Portfolio Standard (RPS), a tax-and-subsidy scheme facilitated through a

Public Benefits Fund (PBF) or Clean Energy Fund (CEF), and a market-based policy

where consumers can express their preferences to buy power from renewable resources at a

premium price.

The command-and-control policy targets the utility by mandating a specified level

of capacity that must come from renewable energy, and is generally referred to as a

Renewables Portfolio Standard. The tax-and-subsidy scheme collects an additional charge

per unit of electricity consumed from all customers in a state and places the proceeds into

this Public Benefits Fund or Clean Energy Fund. Monies from the PBF/CEF are used to



3 The electric power industry accounted for ,i 1', of renewable energy production in
2003.









subsidize renewable capacity deployment through grants, loans, or production incentives.

The market-based policy creates a differentiated demand by mandating that utilities

must offer their customers the choice to purchase green power, which allows consumers to

express their preferences through p ,iing an extra, utility commission-approved charge for

green power.

The econometric results support many of the conclusions from various case studies

with respect to Renewables Portfolio Standard and Clean Energy Fund policies. Moreover,

the results presented here also show, unlike previous studies, that the potential for

offering consumers the option to purchase renewable electricity at a higher price than

conventionally produced electricity can increase renewable capacity in a state.

1.2 Literature Review

The bulk of the literature in this area uses case studies to determine the specific

characteristics of effective state renewable energy policies. There are two main types

of case studies: (1) analyses of a specific policy enacted in a particular state; and (2)

a summary of the general impacts of a specific policy mechanism used across multiple

states, including policy design characteristics that are effective across multiple states.

Langniss and Wiser (2003) analyze the Texas Renewables Portfolio Standard, including

the achievements of the policy mechanism and the design characteristics that allowed

the policy to be effective at increasing renewable energy capacity. It was found that the

clearly defined capacity requirements have been effective in increasing renewable capacity

in Texas.

Wiser et al. (2004) considered all Renewables Portfolio Standards and found the

pitfalls in the current policy designs. Some key problems in policy designs include

insufficient duration and stability of targets, weak enforcement, and narrow applicability

of the policy. Other conditions that may impact a policy's effectiveness are the presence of

long-term power purchasers and political and regulatory stability.









Petersik (2004) provides a non-econometric analysis of the effectiveness of different

types of Renewables Portfolio Standards as of 2003 for the United States Energy

Information Association (EIA). He finds that only Renewables Portfolio Standards

that mandate a certain level of capacity (number of megawatts) have had any significant

impact on renewable capacity deployment. Policies with renewable generation or sales

requirements as well as voluntary policy programs were found to have no significant effect.

C'!, i, et al. (2007) compares the results from 28 policy impact projections for state

or utilit,---1. ,l Renewables Portfolio Standards and finds that (1) the impact on electricity

prices is minimal, (2) wind power is expected to be the primary renewable used to

meet policy requirements, and (3) the benefit-cost estimates rely heavily on uncertain

assumptions, such as renewable technology costs, natural gas prices, and possible carbon

emissions policy in the future.

Bolinger et al. (2001) describe in detail 14 different state Clean Energy Funds,

enumerating the regulatory background, funding approaches, the current status of the

fund, and the resulting impacts on renewable energy. Programs that fund utility-scale

projects are found to be the most effective at increasing renewable capacity deployment.4

Bolinger et al. (2004, 2006) summarize the same 14 Clean Energy Funds. They find that

due to d-.1 i- and cancelled projects actual capacity often is much lower than initially

obligated capacity.

Wiser and Olson (2004) examine participation in 66 utility green power programs.

They find local green power programs have residential participation rates ranging from

0.02'. to 6.45'. and averaging 1.t:''. However, this study does not look at any state-level

Required Green Power Options that require all utilities in a state to offer consumers

the option to purchase renewable energy. The paper focuses on participation rates of



4 Funding is usually based on actual production, but it is paid in a lump sum once the
capacity has been constructed.









the utility-based programs, but does not analyze the impact of these local programs on

renewable energy generation or capacity.

Bird et al. (2005) summarize federal renewable energy policies, general market factors,

and state-specific factors, such as state policies, that are driving the deployment of wind

power. The key market factors are the volatility in natural gas prices during the early

2000s and the lowered wind energy generation costs due to larger wind turbines, which

have combined to make wind power more competitive with natural gas-fired generation.

Only one paper has attempted to econometrically estimate the effects of state

renewable energy policy on renewable capacity. Menz and Vachon (2006) use ordinary

least squares to estimate state policy effects on wind power capacity and generation with

a panel dataset for 39 states for 1998-2002 while controlling for wind power availability,

retail choice, and policy dummy variables for Public Benefits Fund, Renewables Portfolio

Standard, Required Green Power Option, and fuel mix disclosure.5 Renewables

Portfolio Standards, which require a minimum amount of renewable energy capacity

or generation, and Required Green Power Options, which require all utilities in a state

to offer renewable-based electricity to all consumers for a premium price, are found

to have a statistically significant effect on wind capacity deployment. No statistically

significant effects were found for Public Benefits Funds, which aid both the funding of

energy efficiency, and for Clean Energy Funds, which fund renewable energy programs and

projects.

1.3 Model

This paper uses an ordinary least squares approach as did Menz and Vachon (2006),

but differs in many aspects. This paper includes state fixed-effects, a larger sample,



5 Fuel mix disclosure is a policy that requires the fuel mix a power producer uses in its
electricity generation to be disclosed to the public. It is believed that consumers will use
this information to purchase electricity from power producers that use cleaner burning
fuels or alternative energy.









and additional and more detailed policy variables as well as control variables for a

state's electricity market and political environment. Without controlling for differences

in market size and political environments, omitted variables may bias the results and

lead to incorrect policy interpretations. State fixed-effects are used to control for

renewable availability and capacity constructed prior to 1996, which is in large part

due to the implementation of prior federal policy at the state level as well as the effects of

environmental preferences not captured by other variables.

Cit = ao + 3 Rit + Wit + Si + it
The model estimates total non-hydropower renewable capacity (Cit) for 1996-2003,

where subscript i is the state and t is the year of the specific observation. Rt is the

vector of seven regulatory policies (Clean Energy Fund, Renewables Portfolio Standard

with Capacity Requirements, Renewables Portfolio Standard with Generation/Sales

Requirements, Net A\ I i :- Interconnection Standards, State Government Green Power

Pui 1 i i- i- and Required Green Power Option) and Wi is the vector of eight political

and economic variables. Vector Si is the state fixed-effects dummy variables and vector Tt

are the year variables. The year variables, most of the control variables, and some of the

policy variables are interacted with each state's electricity generation level to control for

market size in each state.

The dependent variable is the total non-hydropower renewable nameplate capacity

in the electric power industry (Cit), which includes all nameplate capacity of utilities,

independent power producers (IPPs), and industrial or commercial combined heat and

power producers that use solar, wind, geothermal, or biomass as an energy source.6 The

sum of all non-hydropower renewable energy in a state is used instead of the capacity



6 Nameplate capacity is the amount of capacity the generator produces under ideal
conditions. Non-hydro renewable nameplate capacity is derived from EIA Historical State
Electricity Databases found on the EIA website in which solar, biomass, geothermal, and
wind nameplate capacity are combined into a single category labeled Other Renewables.









of one specific type of renewable energy because using only one type would preclude

any interesting cross-state comparison of policy effects of states with different available

renewable energy resources.7 For example, comparing the effects of a policy on Maine

and Texas using only wind power capacity excludes the policy effects on biomass capacity,

which is a more likely renewable choice for Maine. Both types of renewable resources must

be included to directly compare the effectiveness of policies across states.

The effects of state renewable energy policies are best estimated using total state

non-hydro renewable capacity as the dependent variable because several policies mandate

or fund a specific amount of renewable capacity. Policies that do not set specific renewable

capacity requirements can be measured in capacity terms by controlling for each state's

market size, which will be discussed in more detail in Section 4.

A large amount of renewable capacity created before 1996 originated from the Public

Utilities Regulatory Policy Act (PURPA), a federal policy passed in 1978 requiring

utilities to purchase electricity from Qualifying Facilities (QFs), which are IPPs that meet

specific requirements and include renewable-based facilities. For a variety of reasons, the

effects of PURPA varied from state to state. State dummy variables (Si) measure these

effects and other unchanging state factors, such as renewable resource availability.8



7 Hydropower is not included in the renewable energy capacity because most
hydropower was created well before the mid-1990s, with few changes in capacity or costs
over the time period being analyzed. These aspects allow hydropower to be considered
a type of current generating technology, which includes steam or gas turbines fired by
natural gas, coal, petroleum, or nuclear power. For hydropower to be a viable power
option there must be an available river or stream as well as a significant change in
elevation. Most of these sites in the U.S. already have hydropower capacity in place.
Removing hydropower from the dependent variable allows the focus of the paper to be
on the policy effects on the emerging technologies of wind, solar, biomass, and geothermal
power

8 (\ !, i, 2003). There is some concern that expiration and buyouts of PURPA
contracts during the 1990s have led to decreases in renewable capacity, especially in
California where deregulation in the early to mid-1990s created competition based on price









1.4 Variables and Data

1.4.1 Economic and Political Variables: Wi

Eight variables account for non-policy variability (Wit) in nameplate non-hydropower

renewable capacity in the electric power industry of each state for 1996-2003. The

economic variables measure the percentage of capacity from hydropower and nuclear

power in a state, net generation, retail prices, fuel costs, renewable energy costs, and

sugarcane production, while the political variable measures a state's preferences for

renewable capacity. These variables are interacted with generation to control for different

market sizes across states.9 Table 1-1 summarizes the data for the dependent variable

(RENEWABLE CAPACITY) and the control variables.10

Total generation (GEN) is the total amount of electricity generated (in terawatthours)

in a state for a given year." It is expected that more renewable capacity will be found

in states that generate more electricity to help meet the higher demand for electricity

found in those states.12 The other control variables as well as some of the policy variables

are interacted with generation to account for market size across states. For example,



without any consideration of costs or environmental impacts. Any capacity shut down due
to PURPA contract expiration after 1996 will decrease the positive effects of any enacted
policy. There is also the possibility of a state changing its interpretation and enforcement
of PURPA after 1996, which would not be captured in the model.

9 Electricity generation in a state is has been chosen to represent market size instead of
electricity sales in a state because some electricity sales originate from outside a particular
state.

10 Data on capacity, generation, and price are found in the Historical Databases of the
Electric Power Annual survey on the EIA website. Electricity summary data is available at
the state level from the EIA.

1 A terawatt-hour (TWh) is the same as 1,000 GWh or 1 billion kWh.

12 Total generation was chosen instead of total sales because some of the electricity
demand for a state's power producers may come from other states. Generation is not
contaminated with these interstate sales, which may otherwise inflate or deflate the market
size measure. Generation and sales are highly correlated (0.952).









an increase in fuel costs will have a larger impact on renewable capacity in California

than in Rhode Island. Larger states should have more funding to 1 iv for projects to

increase renewable capacity. Renewables Portfolio Standards with Sales Requirements set

requirements on the percent of generation that must originate from renewable sources.

States with more generation will have more total generation that is required to originate

from renewable resources, which should lead to more renewable capacity in those states.

The following three variables are included in the model to control for market

structure. Two of these variables are hydropower capacity (PCT HYDROPOWER)

and nuclear power capacity (PCT NUCLEAR) as a percentage of total capacity excluding

non-hydro renewables. Hydropower should lead to less non-hydro renewable capacity

because hydropower has low marginal production costs, and the capacity typically was

constructed many years ago. With lower marginal costs and sunk capital costs associated

with hydropower, hydropower will be the first renewable energy to be implemented

because it is more economically competitive than most non-hydropower renewables

available to the electric power industry. Consumer and/or policy driven demand for

renewable-based electricity may not differentiate between hydropower and other renewable

sources, which allows hydropower to be a substitute of non-hydro renewables.

Similar to hydropower, nuclear power has low marginal costs of producing base load

electricity, has sunk capital costs, and has no emissions. If non-hydro renewable capacity

is deploy, ,1 based on economic factors, given similar emissions profiles, greater nuclear or

hydropower capacity should decrease the amount of non-hydro renewable capacity.

An alternative possibility is that regulators in states with large amounts of nuclear

power encourage power producers to use other resource types to meet new demand.

Renewable energy may be used by utilities to alleviate pressure from environmentalists

over nuclear power, thus leading to greater deployment of renewable energy capacity in

states with large amounts of nuclear capacity. The sign of PCT NUCLEAR will depend on

which of these two factors has the larger effect on power producers.









A state's annual weighted average real fuel cost (in 2002 dollars) per million Btus

(FUEL COST) measures the impact of both a state's composition of fossil fuel mix and

a state's average costs for each fossil fuel type: coal, natural gas, and fuel oil.13 FUEL

COST captures the effects of all these variables, which may have offsetting effects on

renewable capacity. FUEL COST is used instead of creating separate variables for the

cost and capacity of each fossil fuel for several reasons. First, using one variable instead of

five variables simplifies the model. Second, data on specific fossil fuel costs are missing for

many states.14

Levelized cost of each renewable source is the estimated real cost of production

per kilowatt-hour of electricity over the lifetime of the equipment, including all federal

production incentives.15 It captures the economic competitiveness of each renewable



13 Fuel cost data can be found on the EIA website in the electricity databases section
under Monthly Cost and Quality of Fuels for Electric Plants Database (FERC Form-423).
The cost per unit, Btus per unit, and number of units purchased for every fuel purchase
made by all public utilities are used to obtain a nominal average fuel cost measure. The
data are ., i'--regated and deflated using the Consumer Price Index for all goods from the
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis to get the state's annual average real fuel cost per
million Btus in January 2002 dollars. FUEL COST has 30 missing observations for 8
different states. Idaho is the only state without any fossil fuel purchases. Estimates of
the fuel costs are used to fill in the missing data. The non-Idaho missing observations
are extrapolated from the existing data for a state from 1990-2003. Idaho's observations
are generated by using the average fuel costs of the states bordering Idaho. A missing
data dummy variable is included in the model to capture any bias created through the
extrapolation and approximation.
14 There are missing fuel cost observations for coal (69), natural gas (65), and fuel oil
(58). This might be due to no deliveries of a particular fuel to a state, or it could be the
missing observations are due to changes in data reporting requirements during the sample
period.
15 Levelized cost is calculated by a model that accounts for the initial capital costs of
constructing the capacity, expected lifetime of the equipment, interest rates on debt,
inflation rate, fuel costs, operational and maintenance costs, capacity factor of the
equipment, and federal production incentives. Read McVeigh (1999) for a more detailed
description of levelized cost used in this paper.









energy type. Renewable energy as well as nuclear and hydropower have little or no fuel

cost and very high capital costs, while current generating technologies based on fossil fuel

have large fuel costs but lower capital costs.16 As renewable energy has gotten cheaper to

produce, it has become more economically competitive. This implies that decreases in the

levelized cost of each type of renewable energy will lead to more renewable capacity. The

levelized cost also includes federal production incentive policies that vary over time.17

MiT _,, researchers have tried to estimate the levelized cost of energy for each

renewable source. Making such an estimate is beyond the scope of this paper, so the data

set being used for this variable is obtained from McVeigh et al. (1999). The estimated

levelized cost of energy in the U.S. for each renewable energy source is in real 2002 dollars

and is estimated for every five years, from 1980 to 2005.18 These data points are used to

interpolate a polynomial curve that had the best fit (highest r-squared value). Due to this

interpolation from estimated data, the cost of energy for each type of renewable energy

is a reasonable though imprecise estimate of the decreasing cost of renewable energy

over time in the U.S. The resulting trend lines for each type of renewable energy have a

high correlation. So a weighted average of the levelized costs of wind, solar, biomass, and

geothermal for the entire U.S. is used to create the new variable RENEW COST, which is

an average national trend for renewable energy costs.19



16 Fossil fuel costs are uncertain for current generating technologies, and technical
efficiency of capital equipment is uncertain for renewable energy generation.
17 The Renewable Energy Production Incentive (REPI) and Production Tax Credit
(PTC) were passed in the Energy Policy Act (EPACT) of 1992. The level of the REPI
is decided by Congress annually, while the PTC was reenacted in 1999 and 2001.

18 The data points for 1985, 1990, and 1995 were estimated based on actual cost
information while 2000 and 2005 were forecasts made in 1999. The polynomial curves
have an order of two for biomass and geothermal and three for solar and wind.

19 The weighted average for each year is based on the sources' share of total
non-hydropower net summer renewable capacity in the U.S in 2002. Net nameplate









If renewable capacity is being constructed on economic grounds, a rise in the retail

price of electricity makes renewable energy more profitable and should have a positive

effect on renewable capacity.20 However, retail prices in a state may be simultaneously

determined with renewable capacity because using more renewable capacity increases the

average costs of production, which could lead to higher prices. Using the state's retail

price could also lead to multicollinearity problems with fossil fuel costs because higher

fuel costs will lead to higher electricity prices. To control for this endogeneity and possible

multicollinearity, the model must use a proxy for a state's retail price. A proxy must be

correlated to the endogenous variable and have no impact itself on the dependent variable.

The weighted average real retail price per kilowatt-hour of the bordering states (BORDER

PRICE) is an ideal proxy for retail prices because it meets both of these requirements.21



capacity data for each type of renewable energy are not available from the EIA, making
net summer capacity the closest available alternative measure. Even though there is a cost
of energy estimate for both solar thermal and solar Photovoltaic, the solar capacity data
are not segregated into these two types. A non-weighted average of solar thermal and PV
is taken to get the levelized cost for total solar capacity. Since all solar power accounts
for less than 2.5'. of total non-hydro renewable capacity in the U.S., it is unlikely that
using some weighted average of solar thermal and solar PV would make any significant
difference. Summer capacity refers to the maximum output generating equipment is
expected to supply to a system demonstrated by tests at the time of summer peak
demand. Nameplate and summer capacity have high correlation, but are not identical
due to different operating conditions across utilities. Definition of nameplate is in Footnote
7.
20 Average retail price is based on all sales in the market: residential, commercial,
industrial, and other customers. Data are available from the EIA Historical Databases.
Average retail price data are originally in nominal terms for each month. Two steps have
to be taken to adjust the data into real terms for each year. First, the monthly data are
divided by the CPI for all goods to get the monthly data into real terms. Second, monthly
electricity sales are used to get a weighted average price for each year. The resulting
variable is the real average retail price for each state and year in January 2002 dollars.
21 Bordering states are all states that either share a border, such as Arizona and New
Mexico, or meet at a corner, such as Arizona and Colorado. The prices are weighted by
sales in the bordering states. The correlation of retail price to BORDER PRICE is 0.836.









Using BORDER PRICE instead of the state's retail price removes the possible collinearity

with FUEL COST as well.

Florida, Hawaii, Louisiana, and Texas use the byproduct of sugar production from

sugarcane as a biomass fuel. For example, in Hawaii sugarcane is one of the primary

sources of biomass. Due to market conditions most of the sugarcane farms in Hawaii were

shut down over the 1990s, removing the fuel source for much of the biomass capacity in

the state. ('!i ,n1, in sugarcane production are likely to have an impact on the amount of

biomass capacity in a state. The change in total tons of sugarcane production from 1996

levels (SUGARCANE PROD CHANGE) is included in the model to control for its impact

on renewable capacity. SUGARCANE PROD CHANGE is the only control variable not

interacted with generation.

A political variable is included to measure changes in renewable energy preferences

in a state. The League of Conservation Voters (LCV) rating is used to determine if policy

preferences for environmental protection increase renewable energy capacity independent

from its policy effects. The League of Conservation Voters (LCV) annually publishes the

National Environmental Scorecard, which rates all congressional votes on conservational

issues by each representative.22 For example, if there are ten total votes in a year on

environmental issues and a congressperson voted in favor of conservation six times, his or

her LCV rating would be 60.

An average of all the votes by a state's representatives is taken to get the average

House of Representatives score (LCV SCORE). The scores from the House of Representatives

are used instead of the Senate because representatives have a shorter term in office



22 Data from the National Environmental Scorecard is available from the League of
Conservation Voters website, www.lcv.org. The LCV rating has been used in prior studies,
including Baldwin and Magee (2000), Kalt and Zupan (1984), and Nelson (2002).









than senators, two years versus six years. The shorter term creates greater pressure on

representatives to act according to their constituents' preferences.

A high LCV rating for a state indicates that the state's constituents are environmentally

friendly and are more likely to demand electricity from renewable energy, all other things

being equal. Consumers or environmental groups in states with higher LCV ratings may

be more likely to pressure utilities to use greater amounts of renewable energy no matter

which, if any, policies have been enacted by the state.

Policies may be endogenous to higher LCV ratings because states with congresspersons

who vote for federal pro-environmental policies may be more likely to enact state

pro-environmental policies. The policy endogeneity issue is not addressed in the body

of this paper because LCV SCORE is not a strong enough predictor of state policies to be

a satisfactory instrument. Note also that removing LCV SCORE from the regression does

not change the other results.

1.4.2 Regulatory Policy Variables: Ri

Seven of the independent variables are policy variables capturing the effects of

different types of renewable energy regulation, either by a state's legislature or Public

Utility Commission (Rit).23 Most policies are enacted through state legislation, and then

enforced by the Public Utility Commission (PUC). There are a few instances, however,

in which a PUC adopts guidelines without state legislation. No legislation or PUC action

is required for state governors to use executive orders to create a state government green

power purchasing agreement or to set voluntary goals for generation.



23 Information on renewable policies is available on the Database of State Incentives
for Renewable Energy (DSIRE) website, www.dsireusa.org, which is a project of the
Interstate Renewable Energy Council and funded by the U.S. Department of Energy.
The information is compiled from many different sources, including federal and state
officials, public utility commissions, and renewable energy organizations. The source of
the information is included within each policy description. Bollinger et al. (2001) includes
additional information on the enactment and design of Public Benefits Funds.









Policy dummy variable values are determined by a policy's enactment date, zero

before enactment and one after enactment. The enactment date is the year that the policy

is passed by the state legislator, created through an executive order, or announced as a

mandate under new PUC guidelines. Some of these policies allow a grace period for power

producers to meet the new regulations. The effective date is the year that the policy

requirements must be met. The average lag from the enactment to effective date is a little

over one year, but can be longer for Renewables Portfolio Standards. The enactment year

is a better choice to determine when the policy begins to impact the power producers.

Once a power producer becomes aware of a future requirement, it may begin to construct

any necessary renewable capacity. These actions could lead to large amounts of renewable

capacity being constructed between the enactment date and effective date.

Regulatory policies described below include a Renewables Portfolio Standard with

a Capacity Requirement, Renewables Portfolio Standard with a Generation/Sales

Requirement, Clean Energy Fund, Net A ii.- Interconnection Standards, State

Government Green Power Purchasing, and Required Green Power Options. Table 3-2

summarizes the data for the policy variables.

The first policy that will be discussed is a Renewables Portfolio Standard, which

specifies an amount of a state's electricity production, sales, or capacity that must be

renewable-based. Renewables Portfolio Standards can be differentiated into three main

structural forms, policies that set (1) mandatory renewable generation or sales levels,

(2) voluntary renewable generation or sales goals, and (3) mandatory renewable energy

capacity requirements.

The first type of Renewables Portfolio Standard sets a percentage of total generation

or sales for each power producer/retailer that must originate from renewable sources,

usually increasing every year or every few years. For example, Arizona's tiered renewable

levels that have to be met began at 0.' in 2001 and increased by 0.' each year,









resulting in a requirement of one percent in 2005. Most other states' Renewables Portfolio

Standards have similar structures, but vary in percentage levels and enforcement dates.24

Iowa, Minnesota, Texas, and Wisconsin have mandated utilities to install a certain

level of megawatts of renewable capacity.25 As long as the requirements are implemented

effectively, renewable capacity requirements should increase renewable capacity by the

same number of megawatts required by the mandate. These capacity requirements will

make this type of Renewables Portfolio Standards more effective in this model because

they target actual capacity construction versus generation or sales based Renewables

Portfolio Standards.

The differences between Renewables Portfolio Standards can be accounted for in the

model by two variables: a variable that measures the size of the renewable generation

or sales requirement (RPS: SALES REQ) and a variable that measures the size of the

capacity requirement (RPS: CAP REQ).26 The capacity requirement size and date are

used to extrapolate the expected requirement for each year assuming a linear function,

where the power producers increase capacity by the same amount each year until they

meet the final requirements, to form the variable RPS: CAP REQ.



24 In 1998, Wisconsin introduced mandatory capacity levels before it enacted a
Renewables Portfolio Standard with mandatory generation or sales in 1999. Two states
(Illinois and Hawaii) with Renewables Portfolio Sales Goals (not requirements) are counted
as Renewables Portfolio Standards with a sales requirement. The only result that changes
when these non-mandatory goals are treated as a requirement of zero is the coefficient on
RPS: SALES REQ becomes smaller and becomes less significant for all specifications. All
other coefficients remain relatively unchanged.
25 Minnesota has had both types of Renewables Portfolio Standard since 2001. A
voluntary generation goal was enacted in 2001, while the capacity requirement was enacted
in 1994.

26 Capacity requirements range from 50 to 2000 MW, and generation/sales requirements
range from 0-31 1' .









RPS: SALES REQ is an even more complex variable. The generation/sales

requirement, which usually sets a target about five years after enactment, is linearly

interpolated backwards to the enactment date of the policy. For example, a policy enacted

in 1996 with a sales requirement of 1.0' beginning in 2000 would be linearly interpolated

to be 0.2'". in 1996 and increase by 0.2'". each year until it reaches 1.0'". in 2000. Although

the requirement is not enforced until 2000, it would be necessary for power producers

to begin construction at least several years before 2000 to get the necessary capacity

constructed in time to meet the sales requirement.

Although this policy does not directly require the construction of renewable capacity,

an increase in the required amount of renewable generation may lead to a need for

more renewable capacity. If current levels of renewable capacity cannot meet a future

generation/sales requirement, additional capacity will need to be constructed.27

A Clean Energy Fund is a state-level program that is often, but not albv-l- created

through the restructuring of the electricity market and is used to fund grants, loans,

and production incentives for both research and development and actual deployment of

alternative energy. T !,J' Clean Energy Funds focus on funding actual renewable capacity

deployment, which should lead to more renewable capacity in a state.

Clean Energy Funds are paid for through System Benefits C(i rges (SBCs), which are

additional charges paid by all consumers on their electricity consumption. SBCs can be



27 Some state Renewables Portfolio Standards a with generation/sales requirement
allow the use of some hydropower electricity to meet the requirement. However, there are
normally specific requirements as to which facilities will be eligible, including restrictions
on a unit's maximum capacity, type of hydropower, and year of installation. For example,
some states do not allow generating units greater than 30 MW to be eligible. One
state does not allow any hydropower to originate from dammed hydropower plants.
Another state only allows electricity from new hydropower capacity to be eligible. These
restrictions will decrease the effectiveness of these policies to increase renewable capacity
in a state. However, the complexities of the restrictions make it difficult to create an
appropriate measure for these effects.









considered a consumption tax on electricity to fund deployment of renewable capacity in

the industry. In Minnesota, a settlement with the electric utility Xcel Energy created a

similar fund that is p .iing for renewable energy research and deployment. Maine created

a voluntary fund similar to a Clean Energy Fund for the state's customers to donate

money. 28

Similar to Renewables Portfolio Standards, Clean Energy Funds must be differentiated

to understand how effective these policies are at increasing renewable deployment in a

state. The variable used in this model is a variable that measures the amount of capacity

that is being funded for iuil' ii--, i1.- projects from Clean Energy Funds (CEF: CAP

FUNDED).29

Some customers may prefer to build generating capacity to provide their home with

some of their own electricity. Net Metering (NET METERING) allows customers that

are able to produce more electricity than they consume in a given month to sell any

excess to the utility to offset the charges for electricity in months the customer is a net

purchaser. The effect of net metering is expected to be negative because if renewable

energy demanders produce their own renewable electricity through a solar PV system

or small wind turbine, they will demand less renewable capacity from power producers.

From a utility perspective, if it is required to reach a renewable capacity or sales target,

these customer-owned facilities may serve to offset a utility's needs to build renewable



28 Database of State Incentives for Renewable Energy (DSIRE) does not include New
Mexico as having a Clean Energy Fund, while Bolinger et al. (2001) verifies that New
Mexico does have a Clean Energy Fund.
29 The capacity obligations as of 2003 are interpolated backwards linearly to the
enactment year so that an equal amount of additional capacity obligations are made each
year and total the overall obligations as of 2003. The data for is variable originated from
the Database of Utility-Scale Renewable Energy Projects from the Clean Energy States
Alliance (CESA).









capacity. NET METERING is interacted with GEN to control for the policy's effect based

on market size.

Interconnection standards (INTERCON STANDARDS) are a set of guidelines used

to safely and effectively connect individual renewable generating units to the electric

utility power grid. Some have technical requirements, such as generator type and size

limits, mandatory safety and performance standards, and insurance requirements that

must be met before a net metering customer can connect to the utility's network.

Interconnection standards must be met by any commercial, industrial, residential, or

government customer that decides to connect to the grid. Without these state policies,

the net metering connections could cause 1n i, i problems for the grid, power producers,

and other purchasers. Interconnection standards increase the costs of hooking up to

the grid for net metering and may offset some of the negative effect from net metering.

INTERCON STANDARDS is also interacted with GEN to control for market size.30

State Government Green Power Purchasing policies require that some percentage

of a state government's electricity purchases be from renewable sources. These purchase

agreements range from 5'. to 50' of a state government's electricity purchases. Similar

to Renewables Portfolio Standards with Sales Requirements, a State Government Green

Power Purchasing agreement increases the need for renewable-based electricity generation.

As state government electricity use rises, the renewable generation needed to meet the

requirement increases. If the new generation needs cannot be met by current renewable

capacity, power producers will need to construct new renewable energy capacity. The

size of the State Government Green Power Purchasing requirement, in terms of a

percentage of the state government's electricity purchases, is interacted with GEN to



30 Since only four observations have interconnection standards and no net metering, the
interaction term measures the effect of interconnection standards on states that already
have net metering policies. Only 86 of the 187 observations ( I'.' ) with net metering also
have interconnection standards, which removes concerns of multicollinearity.









control for both the state's purchase requirement and the state's market size (PCT STATE

PURCHASING*GEN).

A Required Green Power Option requires utilities to offer customers the option to

purchase renewable power at a premium. There are two versions of how these options

are implemented. The most common type gives consumers the option to make voluntary

contributions, called voluntary renewable energy tariffs in return for the guarantee that

some of the consumer's electricity consumption is produced from renewable sources.

Consumers purchase electricity at the market price and then p i,- a premium for blocks of

green electricity, usually about $2 per 100 kWh. The second type allows the producers to

charge consumers a higher rate per kilowatt-hour, but only to cover the additional costs

for electricity from renewable sources. Both the premium block rate and premium per

kilowatt-hour rate must be approved by the state's Public Utilities Commission (PUC).

Required Green Power Options elicit customer preferences and a crude measure of

willingness to p iv for renewable energy by allowing consumers to voluntarily p i,- higher

prices for the knowledge that they are supporting renewable-based electricity. The creation

of this niche market for renewable energy generation should have a positive impact on

renewable capacity. The variable REQ GREEN POWER OPT is a dummy variable, which

is interacted with GEN in the model to measure the effect of the policy based on the

state's market size (REQ GREEN POWER OPT*GEN).

1.5 Statistical Specifications and Empirical Analysis

Ordinary Least Square regressions with state fixed-effects and robust standard errors

are used in this paper to estimate total non-hydro renewable capacity. Robust standard

errors are used to account for heteroskedasticity, which was found to exist in the model

by using a Breusch-Pagan/Cook-Wesiberg Heteroskedasticity Test.31 Table 3 reports



31 The result was a Chi-Sq 448 and P(*)>Chi-Sq 0.0000, so there is a significant
difference in the variance of the dependent variable, which creates heteroskedasticity.









the regression results. Specification 1 includes only the policy variables. Specification 2

includes the economic market and political control variables, and Specification 3 replaces

RENEW COST with year dummies interacted with GEN. The following subsections

describe the results using the coefficients from Specification 3.32

1.5.1 Economic and Political Variables: Wi

The coefficient for GEN is insignificant, which cannot be easily interpreted because of

how many different v--~i that a state's generation can impact a state's level of renewable

capacity. Although the coefficient is insignificant, generation levels do have effects through

other variables that are interacted with GEN, which are explained below.

The percentage of other capacity comprised of hydropower interacted with generation

(PCT HYDRO*GEN) is not statistically significant. However, the coefficient for the

percentage of other capacity comprised of nuclear power interacted with generation (PCT

NUCLEAR*GEN) is positive and statistically significant. A one standard deviation

(12., 11'.) increase in the percentage of non-renewable capacity comprised of nuclear power

leads to an increase of 2.09 MW per terawatt-hour of generation in a state. So this one

standard deviation change in a state with a median generation level (51.15 TWh) leads to

an increase of 107 MW. It is possible that utilities with more nuclear power are deploying

more renewable capacity because the utilities are focused on diversifying its generation

mix, either to decrease the utilities' use of fossil fuels and lower emissions or to alleviate

pressure from environmentalists who are upset about the use of nuclear power.

The coefficients on the average LCV score for the House of Representatives interacted

with generation (LCV SCORE*GEN) are positive and significant. A one standard

deviation increase (26.51 points) in a state's LCV score leads to an increase of 0.663 MW

per terawatt-hour of generation. A one standard deviation increase in a state with median



32 Results from Specification 2 are nearly identical to results from Specification 3 with
the same interpretations.









generation leads to an increase of 34 MW. Preferences for renewable energy capacity do

in fact lead to a small amount of deployment of some renewable capacity, holding policies

fixed.

As expected, renewable energy cost interacted with generation (RENEW COST*GEN)

has a negative and statistically significant coefficient. A one-cent per kWh decrease in

renewable energy cost leads to an increase of 0.712 MW per terawatthour of generation.

In a state with median generation, a one cent decrease in RENEW COST leads to

an increase of 36 MW. RENEW COST decreased by 1.79 cents from 1996 to 2003,

which implies an increase of 65 MW for a state with median generation. This effect

does not just include the technological changes in renewable energy. As mentioned in

Section 4, all federal production incentives are included in the costs of production for

each renewable source, capturing the federal policy changes as well as the technological

advances. The year variable coefficients, which explain the same impacts as RENEW

COST, are explained in detail in Section 5.4.

The coefficient on average border state retail price interacted with generation

(BORDER PRICE*GEN) is negative and is marginally statistically significant only

in Specification 3 of Table 3. Higher electricity prices do not appear to result in more

renewable energy capacity construction. In fact, the negative coefficient implies that

an increase of one cent in the price of electricity leads to a small decrease in renewable

capacity by 13 MW in a state with median generation. A one standard deviation (2.07

cents) increase in price leads to a decrease of only 27 MW. It is possible that consumers in

a state with high electricity prices have less of an appetite for further increases in prices

through more expensive renewable generation.33



33 High electricity prices may be one of the factors driving the enactment of state
renewable energy policies. However, high prices by themselves do not appear to lead to
renewable capacity deployment in a state.









The coefficient for average fuel cost interacted with generation (FUEL COST*GEN)

is statistically significant. It is difficult to interpret the meaning of the coefficient, since

the components of the variable may lead to opposite effects. Higher costs should make

renewable energy capacity more competitive. But the variable also reflects differences

in fuel type use in a state. To take one example, since natural gas is more expensive

than coal, more natural gas use would lead to a higher average fossil fuel cost and make

renewable energy more competitive in the market. On the other hand, natural gas results

in lower emissions than using coal or oil. All else equal, a state with more natural gas

capacity will have lower emissions than if a state had higher amounts of coal capacity,

which lowers the need for non-emitting renewable capacity to meet emissions reduction

goals. If this holds true, a higher average fossil fuel cost will be correlated with less

renewable capacity construction.

To alleviate any concerns about FUEL COST, an additional specification is estimated

replacing FUEL COST with five variables: average cost of coal, average cost of oil, average

cost of natural gas, percent of non-renewable capacity comprised of coal, and percent

of non-renewable capacity comprised of natural gas. Natural gas and coal capacity are

treated in the same manner as hydropower and nuclear power capacity in the model. Each

variable is interacted with GEN, just like the other control variables.

A higher percentage of total non-renewable capacity comprised of coal is correlated

with more renewable capacity, which gives some support that states with dirtier

conventional capacity use more renewable capacity. As the price of coal increases, less

renewable capacity is constructed. These two results support the idea that the emissions

requirements utilities must meet are a driving force to renewable deployment, while

economic competitiveness in the market does not have much of an impact. Caution is

necessary in interpreting the results with the additional set of fuel variables because

there are many missing observations that must be extrapolated. The dummy variables

that control for missing observations for coal and natural gas are both statistically









significant, which brings up concerns about the variable coefficients and any possible

biases due to the missing data. The most important result from this specification is that

the additional variables have no effect on the policy variable coefficients, which remain

relatively unchanged relative to the original model.

The coefficient on SUGARCANE PROD CHANGE is insignificant. The missing fuel

cost dummy variable interacted with generation (M\ISSING FUEL COST*GEN) controls

for any measurement error caused by the extrapolation of the 38 missing data points and

is insignificant as well.

1.5.2 Regulatory Policy Variables: Ri

Table 4 estimates the statistically significant effects from both the control variables

and the policy variables based on a state with median generation levels. Clean Energy

Funds, Renewables Portfolio Standards with Capacity Requirements, and Required Green

Power Options have statistically significant effects on renewable capacity in the electric

power industry. Renewables Portfolio Standards with Generation/Sales Requirements and

State Green Power Purchasing Programs are marginally significant in Specification 1, but

lose their significance once control variables are introduced into the model.

CEF: CAP FUNDED, which measures the amount of capacity that the fund has

agreed to help finance, has a marginally statistically significant coefficient. This includes

capacity that has been agreed upon, but has not yet been built, either because the project

has not been finished or the project is later canceled. For each megawatt of capacity that

the Clean Energy Fund has funded or agreed to fund in the near future, approximately

0.206 MW has been constructed. This is not significantly different than the fraction of

capacity that has actually been constructed as of 2003, which was 0.33 MW per 1 MW.

Even though actual renewable capacity is probably not constructed linearly over the

lifetime of the policy, the estimates from the linear interpolation seem to be representative

of actual capacity construction due to the Clean Energy Funds.









The coefficient on RPS: CAP REQ is positive and significant, and about the same

size as would be expected. For each megawatt of capacity required by the Renewables

Portfolio Standard, approximately 1.14 MW is constructed. The coefficient is not

significantly different than one. Similar to CEF: CAP FUNDED, the linear interpolation

approach taken in designing RPS: CAP REQ is effective at capturing the policy effects by

allowing variation in the timing of capacity construction.

The most interesting result from the model is the effect that Required Green

Power Options have on renewable capacity. The coefficient for REQ GREEN POWER

OPT*GEN has a positive and statistically significant coefficient and has some of the

largest effects on renewable capacity of any variable, where enactment leads to renewable

capacity increasing by 3.46 MW per terawatt-hour of generation. A state with a median

generation level (51.15 TWh) that enacts a Required Green Power Option would have

an increase of 177 MW. Washington has the largest electricity market of states that have

enacted a Required Green Power Option (100.1 TWh), which would lead to an increase in

renewable capacity of 346 MW. To give some perspective on these results, the estimated

impacts in total renewable capacity can be expressed in terms of a percentage of total

capacity in a state. Depending on the state, a Required Green Power Option leads to

an increase of about 1.2-1.,'. 34 The statistically and economically significant increase

implies that Required Green Power Options, which create a niche market for green power

by requiring states to offer renewable-based electricity to their consumers at a premium,

are very useful in increasing the amount of renewable energy capacity in a state.35



34 These estimates are made by taking the estimated effect of a Required Green Power
Option in a state on total renewable capacity in 2003, and then dividing that value by
total capacity in the state for 2003. The resulting impact is a measure of the change in
renewable capacity in percentage terms of total capacity.

35 This estimation is in the range of the average participation rate for all local green
power programs of 1.!' (Wiser and Olson, 2004).









The coefficients for both STATE PURCHASING: PCT REQ*GEN and RPS: SALES

REQ*GEN are marginally statistically significant in Specification 1. However, once

control variables are included in the regressions, the coefficients are no longer statistically

significant. Initial state government purchase levels are minimal and account for a

relatively small portion of the electricity market in a state. The low demand can still be

met by current renewable generation in a state. Given the size and statistical significance

of the coefficient in Specification 3, it is unlikely that state government purchases of

renewable energy will result in any significant increase in renewable capacity in a state.

There are multiple reasons for the insignificance of RPS: SALES REQ*GEN. First,

most Renewables Portfolio Standards with sales requirements have been enacted fairly

recently and currently have low requirements. Power suppliers may be able to meet their

low initial requirements by using current renewable capacity. Second, some of the states

implementing these policies have available hydropower capacity already in place that is

considered eligible to meet a portion of these currently low mandates, which decreases the

policies' effectiveness in encouraging new non-hydro renewable capacity deployment in a

state. Third, some states allow the purchase of Renewable Energy Credits (RECs), which

are certificates that represent the environmental rights of renewable electricity, instead of

actual generation. Many of these same states allow power producers/retailers to purchase

RECs from out-of-state power producers to meet their in-state requirements. All three of

these factors will decrease the policy's impacts on in-state renewable capacity deployment.

A few more years of data should result in RPS: SALES REQ*GEN to have statistically

significant impacts on renewable capacity in its state.

Neither net metering nor interconnection standards appear to have an impact on

renewable capacity. The coefficients on NET METERING and INTERCON STANDARDS

are statistically insignificant.









1.5.3 State Fixed-Effects Variables: Sit

Forty-nine state fixed-effects variables are included in Specification 3 in Table 3

to control for state interpretation of federal policies enacted prior to 1996 as well as

any time-invariant differences across states.36 Time-constant variation across states

includes the availability of renewable energy resources and the initial level of a state's

preferences for renewable energy use. The coefficients should be highly correlated

to the amount of renewable capacity that existed in 1996. The correlation between a

state's initial renewable capacity and its state-fixed effect coefficient is 0.978. The state

fixed-effects seem to effectively control for the impact of existing regulation and the

market environment prior to 1996.

1.5.4 Year Variables: Tit

The third specification replaces the national renewable energy cost trend variable

(RENEW COST) with year variables interacted with GEN. The coefficients are

statistically insignificant for all years except for 2003, where the impact is 0.530 MW per

terawatt-hour of generation in a state. A state with median generation has an increase of

27 MW from 1996 to 2003. These year variables measure the impact of renewable energy

becoming more economically viable as well as federal policy implemented to encourage

renewable energy use. The federal Renewable Energy Production Tax Credit (PTC) and

federal Renewable Energy Production Incentive (REPI) were enacted in 1992. The federal

PTC was renewed in both 1999 and 2001, while the funding for the REPI changes from

year to year based on congressional appropriations. Each year coefficient controls for the

impact of these policies on each state as funding for these production incentives change as

well as the improvements in the technology behind renewable energy.



36 One state must be dropped from the model to remove multicollinearity of the
fixed-effects variables.









1.6 Conclusions

States have enacted many policies to increase the deployment of non-hydro renewable

capacity into the electric power industry in that state. The literature evaluating the

effectiveness of these programs consists of case studies and one statistical study, which

explains the use of wind power. My statistical study utilizes a larger panel, more policies,

and more control variables to explain the deployment of total renewable capacity in a

state.

Three regulatory policies appear to be effective at increasing renewable capacity

deployment in a state. The significant results from these regulatory policies confirm many

of the findings from prior case studies, which find Renewables Portfolio Standards with

Capacity Requirements and Clean Energy Funds have increased renewable capacity. An

additional policy, Mandatory Green Power Options, is also found to increase capacity

deployment in a state as well.

The previous empirical study found Public Benefits Funds, which include any Clean

Energy Fund in a state, to be insignificant in their model. My paper finds that Clean

Energy Funds with ul il li--i 1 .J projects increase the deployment of renewable capacity in

a state. By using System Benefits C!i irges (SBCs) a state can effectively make consumers

p ,i for cleaner energy without creating a different market for renewable energy demand.

Similar to the case study findings by Bolinger et al. (2001, 2004, 2005), larger utility-scale

projects make Clean Energy Funds more effective at increasing renewable capacity

deployment in a state.

This paper finds that different types of Renewables Portfolio Standards have different

effects on renewable capacity. Each megawatt of capacity mandated by Renewables

Portfolio Standards with Capacity Requirements results in the deployment of one

megawatt of additional renewable capacity in a state. But recent Renewables Portfolio

Standards that mandate generation or sales levels appear not to have statistically

significant effects. These results mirror Petersik's case study in that only Renewables









Portfolio Standards with Capacity Requirements have increased renewable capacity, but

expand on the case study by finding evidence on the size of the policy effect holding other

policies fixed.

Statewide Required Green Power Options appear to have been as effective as any

other policy. Forcing utilities to offer customers the option to purchase renewable-based

electricity at a reasonable premium rate drastically increases renewable capacity in a state.

The policy has a greater impact in larger electricity markets and appears to be effective

regardless of a state's political environment.

There are i ii' ,r renewable policy implications if these results hold when additional

years are eventually included in the model. Only five states have currently implemented

Required Green Power Options even though creating a statewide green power market

appears to be as effective at increasing renewable energy capacity in a state as a

command-and-control scheme of a Renewables Portfolio Standards or tax-and-subsidy

scheme of a Clean Energy Fund. State government purchasing agreements of renewable

energy appear to be no more than window dressing for politicians to show their support to

the environmental community, and additional funding to renewable power producers.

The remaining policies in the model do not appear to impact renewable energy

capacity construction in the the electric power industry. State government green power

purchasing does not increase renewable electricity demand enough to drive capacity

construction. Net metering and interconnection standards target residential and

commercial capacity and do not impact electric power industry decisions.

The important policy implications that arise from the results indicate policymakers

have a wide array of tools at their disposal to promote renewable energy deployment

in a state to meet environmental and energy security policy goals. The array of policy

mechanisms will become even more useful to state governments if the prospect of U.S.

climate change/carbon emissions policy becomes a reality.











Table 1-1. Dependent and Control Variables


Variable
RENEWABLE CAPACITY (MW)
GEN (TWh)
PCT HYDROPOWER (Percentage)
PCT NUCLEAR (Percentage)
BORDER PRICE (2002 cents/kWh)
RENEW COST (2002 cents/kWh)
FUEL COST (2002 dollars/MMBtu)
LCV SCORE (0 to 100)
SUGARCANE PROD CHANGE


Mean.
348.7
73.82
14.14
11.13
7.58
6.93
2.086
43.06
88.95


Std. Dev..
827.6
64.98
20.68
12.46
2.07
0.585
0.987
26.51
599.33


Min.
0.00
4.95
0.00
0.00
4.82
6.00
0.601
0.0
-1707.0


Max.
6177.4
385.63
91.59
56.20
14.49
7.79
7.431
100.0
4882.0


Median.
178.5
51.15
6.26
7.54
6.68
6.94
1.861
38.0
0.0










Table 1-2. Regressions Results
Total Non-Hydro Renewable Capacity
CEF: CAP FUNDED (MW)

RPS: CAP REQ (MW)

RPS: EFFECTIVE GEN REQ

PCT STATE GREEN POWER PURCHASING*GEN

REQUIRED GREEN POWER OPT*GEN

NET METERING*GEN

INTERCON STANDARD*GEN

SUGARCANE PRODUCTION CHANGE (Tons)

GEN (1 TWh)

FUEL COST ($/mmBtu)*GEN

FUEL COST MISSING*GEN

BORDER PRICE (Cents/kWh)*GEN

RENEW COST (Cents/kWh)*GEN

LCV SCORE*GEN

PCT HYDROGEN

PCT NUCLEAR*GEN

YR1997*GEN

YR1998*GEN

YR1999*GEN

YR2000*GEN

YR2001*GEN

YR2002*GEN

YR2003*GEN

CONSTANT

Observations
State Fixed-Effects
R-squared
Robust Standard Errors in Parentheses;* significant at


(1)
0.198
(0.107):
1.245
(0.175):
0.153
(0.056):
0.026
(0.014):
3.539
(0.667):
0.093

-0.246
(0.211)


(2)
0.144
(0.145)
1.144
(0.168)'
0.108
(0.077)
0.013
(0.017)
3.318
(1.207)
-0.237
(0.214)
-0.241
(0.195)
-0.011
(0.023)
-0.184
(1.150)
-0.154
(0.107)
-1.261
(0.843)
0.199
(0.207)
-0.712
(0.211)
0.024
(0.011)
0.018
(0.028)
0.143
(0.043)'


309.103 413.745
(7.689)*** (55.340)**
400 400
50 50
0.598 0.634
10%;** significant at 5%;'


(3)
0.206
(0.124)*
1.142
(0.168)***
0.100
(0.071)
-0.002
(0.016)
3.457
(1.166)***
-0.033
(0.227)
-0.240
(0.210)
-0.007
(0.023)


-0.124
(0.109)
-1.167
(0.802)
-0.259
(0.117)**


0.025
(0.011)**
-0.027
(0.024)
0.168
(0.052)***
-0.048
(0.151)
-0.142
(0.186)
-0.187
(0.182)
-0.269
(0.199)
0.322
(0.247)
0.250
(0.199)
0.530
(0.226)**
267.888
(50.741)***
400
50
0.646
significant at 1%



































Table 1-3. Policy Variables
Variable
CEF: CAP FUNDED
RENEWABLES PORTFOLIO STANDARD
RPS: CAP REQ
RPS: SALES REQ
NET METERING
INTERCON STANDARDS
STATE PURCHASING: PCT REQ
REQ GREEN POWER OPT


States with Policy Non-Zero Observations
8 51








































































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CHAPTER 2
EFFECTS OF COAL CONTRACT CONSTRAINTS ON SO2 TRADING PROGRAM
COMPLIANCE DECISIONS

2.1 Introduction

Title IV of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA) introduced the first sulfur

dioxide (SO2) emissions cap-and-trade program in the United States (U.S.). The program

was claimed to be a success by the Clinton Administration due to a lower than projected

allowance prices, and total compliance costs well below the estimated costs under an

alternative command-and-control policy.1

A growing body of evidence sI:. -- -I that much of the potential cost savings have not

been achieved by the Title IV SO2 Trading Program.2 State public utility commission

(PUC) regulations, adjustment costs, and long-term coal contracts have all been cited as

leading to non-cost-minimizing actions taken by many electric utilities.3 There is a body

of evidence indicating state PUC regulation has led to compliance costs that are in excess

of least-cost compliance in cap-and-trade programs as had been previously conjectured.

However, these estimates appear not to account for much of the excess compliance costs

that resulted during Phase I of Title IV.4

No work has been done to date to show the effects long-term coal or other fuel

contracts have on the ability of cap-and-trade programs to achieve the least-cost

compliance solution. Fuel contract constraints decrease the degrees of freedom in



1 Burtraw et al. (2005); Sotkiewicz and Holt (2005)
2 Carlson et al. (2000); Ellerman et al. (1997); Sotkiewicz and Holt (2005)

3 Carlson et al. (2000), Ellerman et al. (1997), Ellerman et al. (2000), Bohi (1994);
Bohi and Burtraw (1997), Fullerton et al. (1997), and Swift (2001) all listed either state
regulations or long-term coal contracts or both as possible reasons for the apparent or
potential sub-optimal behavior.

4 Sotkiewicz and Holt (2005) found actual compliance costs to be much higher than
their estimated costs while controlling for the effects of state regulation.









compliance choices on which pollution markets rely to improve cost-effectiveness in utility

decision-making. It may well be the case the presence of long-term contracts are driving

part, or most, of the deviations from least-cost that have been simulated or estimated in

the literature for Phase I. If long term coal contracts did in fact lead to inefficiencies under

Phase I, contracts could have similar effects under the newly enacted Clean Air Interstate

Rule (CAIR) of 2005 that further restricts SO2 emissions.

In this paper a model of unit-level S2O compliance is constructed that incorporates

the presence of coal contracts to examine how long-term coal contracts affect utility

compliance choices and a unit's compliance costs. As expected, the presence of coal

contract constraints leads to compliance costs in excess of the hypothetical least-cost

solution. The presence of binding high sulfur contract constraints that were likely in Phase

I of the Title IV SO2 Program may explain the lower than expected allowance prices

in Phase I that accompanied compliance costs that were above the least-cost solution.

It is also found that the presence of binding low sulfur coal constraints that may exist

under CAIR, which may lead to allowance prices that are higher than without the binding

constraint. The effects of the contract constraint seem counter-intuitive: binding high

sulfur coal constraints leading to lower excess demand for allowances, which could reduce

the allowance market price. Binding low sulfur coal constraints leading to higher excess

demand for allowances, which could increase the allowance market price. The interaction

between the contract constraints and the discrete nature of the scrubber choice leads to

these unexpected results.

2.2 Policy Background

2.2.1 Title IV of the Clean Air Act Amendment

Under the Title IV S02 emission trading program, affected units are allocated

allowances, which permit the holder to emit one ton of S02 in the year in which the

allowance is issued or any year thereafter, and that may be traded (bought or sold) in the

market or banked for future use. At the end of each year, generating units are required to









hold at least enough allowances to cover their yearly emissions to be in compliance. The

program allows generating units several degrees of freedom in choosing how to best meet

its compliance obligations: switch from high sulfur to low sulfur fuels; install scrubbers;

and buy or sell allowances; or any combination thereof.5

2.2.1.1 Phase I of Title IV

Phase I of Title IV, which ran from 1995-1999, capped the initial level of emissions

at 8.7 million tons of SO2 per year for the 110 largest polluting plants, which included

263 generating units. The EPA allocated allowances gratis to these affected units

based on average heat input during 1985-1987 multiplied by an emissions rate of 2.5

lbs. S02/mmBtu.

An additional 168 units participated in Phase I in 1996 based on the rules established

by EPA allowing a plant to "opt-in" units (7 units), designate substitution units (160

units), or designate compensating units (1 unit) as part of their Phase I compliance plans.

The voluntary participation of these additional units resulted in a total of 431 affected

generating units under Phase I. A "substitution unit" is a unit that would eventually

be affected in Phase II that voluntarily enrolled into Phase I to meet some or all of the

required emissions reductions for a Phase I unit (Sotkiewicz and Holt, 2005). Substitution

units receive an allowance allocation based on its historical heat input. A utility may

decide to reduce its electricity production at a Phase I affected unit. To do so, the utility

must have a "compensation unit" from the Phase II units the utility operates to cover the

necessary additional electricity. This compensation unit is then brought into Phase I and

given an allowance allocation based on its historical heat input. Industrial sources of S02

emissions could use the opt-in provision and voluntarily enroll into Phase I and receive



5 There are additional compliance options, including shutting down the affected unit
and shifting dispatch away from the affected unit (Energy Information Association, 1997)









allowance allocations similar to substitution and compensation units. There were seven

units that entered the program through this opt-in provision (Ellerman et al., 2000).6

Allowance prices were low compared to initial marginal abatement cost estimates,

and relatively stable throughout Phase I and the beginning of Phase II. Initial marginal

cost estimates used by the EPA ranged from $199-$226 (Smith and Ellerman, 1998). The

market opened in 1995 at a price of $150, soon hit a low of $70 in early 1996, and then

slowly rose back to around $150. Other than a slight spike in 1999 as utilities positioned

themselves for the start of Phase II, the allowance price remained relatively stable around

$150 (Burtraw et al., 2005).

2.2.1.2 Phase II of Title IV

Phase II, which began in 2000 and will continue until the implementation of CAIR in

2010, includes all units over 25 MW in generating capacity. The more than 2,000 affected

generating units throughout the U.S. were allocated allowances based on an emissions rate

of 1.2 lbs. SO2/mmBtu of heat input, multiplied by the unit's baseline heat input during

1985-1987. New generating units were given no allowances and were required to purchase

any necessary allowances in the allowance market. Phase II allocations were capped at

10.0 million tons annually in 2000, have decreased to 9.5 in 2002 where it will remain until

2010, when it drops to 8.95 million tons.

The banking provision has allowed utilities to trade intertemporally with utilities

using the substantial allowance bank accumulated through Phase I for compliance in

Phase II leading to annual emission levels in excess of 10 million tons in each year from

2000 to 2005.



6 There was an incentive to opt-in generating units voluntarily if it is beneficial to
the utility. Opting Phase II units into Phase I give utilities additional v--i to decrease
emissions and sell allowances and, apparently more importantly, bank allowances for
future use in Phase II. Actual SO2 emissions by Phase I units were much lower during
Phase I than the total allowance allocation during Phase I, which allowed utilities to bank
additional allowances for use during Phase II (Ellerman et al., 1997).









The allowance prices remained fairly stable through the beginning of 2004. A large

spike up to over $700 took place in 2004, which according to Burtraw et al. (2005) has

been associated with several factors: an increase in natural gas prices, increased electricity

demand, and the proposal of future emissions control legislation now referred to as the

Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR).

2.2.2 Clean Air Interstate Rule

In 2005, the EPA issued the Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR) that further restricts

the emissions of S02 in 25 eastern states and the District of Columbia effective in 2010.

The states under CAIR are the same states that had affected units under Phase I.

Generating units still receive their allowance allocation as defined under Phase II.

Beginning in 2010, the emissions value of the allowances for units in the CAIR region is

cut in half from 1.2 to 0.6 lbs. SO2/-\I Ihtu of heat input which implies a unit must hold

two Title IV allowances for each ton of actual emissions. Starting in 2015 units must hold

2.86 Title IV allowances for every ton of emissions, which translates to an allocation of

approximately 0.4 lbs. SO2/\ iIhtu. Meanwhile generating units outside the CAIR region

will continue operate under the Title IV, Phase II Program with trades allowed to take

place between CAIR and Phase II units. Units under Phase II and CAIR participate in

the same allowance market and face the same market allowance price.

The spike in allowance prices up to over $1,600 in 2006 seen in Figure 2.8 may

have been a result of the proposal and enactment of CAIR. Utilities could have chosen

to bank allowances instead of selling allowances in the market to ensure their ability

to cover requirements at the beginning of CAIR. It is still uncertain what led to the

temporary spike in allowance prices, but it appears likely that it was a temporary reaction

to the policy environment or other market conditions as the allowance price has quickly

decreased to its current price of less than -i .11 l/ton.









2.3 Literature Review


2.3.1 Title IV: Phase I

There has been significant research done on the Title IV S02 Cap-and-Trade

Program, both for Phase I and Phase II (Ellerman et al. (2000); Burtraw et al. (2005)).

From Table 2-1, it can be seen that, in general, the compliance cost estimates before

Phase I took effect were higher than the estimates made after Phase I became effective

and actual data could be used in the estimates. The pre-policy estimates range as high

as $1.34 billion/year with most estimates at least 1.11 million/year. The actual cost

estimates are towards the lower end of this range between $730-$990 million/year.

There are several reasons for the differences between initial estimates and actual

.,.- -regate industry compliance costs. The most important factor was the decrease in

delivered low sulfur coal prices. At the unit level, lower low sulfur coal prices decreased

the marginal cost of reducing emissions through fuel switching, which was the compliance

option chosen by 5"' of all affected units, while 3:'. of affected units chose to purchase

allowances, 10'-. installed a scrubber, :'-. shut down, and :'-. chose other methods.7

Several of these studies have estimated the cost savings resulting from the allowance

trading system. Carlson, et. al. (2000) used an econometric-based simulation model to

estimate the potential cost savings from trading in the program compared to a uniform

emissions rate standard. The potential savings was estimated at -'>iI million, Of of

which is a result of switching from high to low sulfur coal and 211' from technical change,

such as improved scrubber technology (Burtraw et al., 2005).

Keohane (2002) simulates which generating units would have installed scrubbers

under a uniform emissions-rate standard and finds that the total number of scrubbers

would have been one-third higher than the actual number of installed scrubbers under the



7 Energy Information Association, The Effects of Title IV of the Clean Air Act
Amendments of 1990 on Electric Utilities: An Update"









cap-and-trade approach. Sotkiewicz and Holt (2005) find that due to PUC regulation, not

only is there a greater number of scrubbers actually installed at the beginning of Phase I

relative to the least cost solution (18 scrubbers), but only nine of those actually installed

are at units that install scrubbers under the least cost solution. An increase in the number

and inefficient location of scrubber installations increases the total costs of compliance

because installing a scrubber is the most expensive compliance option under Phase I.

In the initial years of Phase I, many firms were not active participants in the

allowance market, choosing to switch fuels and bank allowances or shift allowances

between only their own units (Hart (1998); Ellerman et al. (1998)). The firms that did

participate mainly traded allowances within the same utility company. Bohi and Burtraw

(1997) find that intra-utility trading accounts for two-thirds of the allowance transactions

while the remaining one-third were inter-utility trades. Since most trades were made

between units owned by the same company, trading between two generating units at

the same plant would be a common occurrence. Many studies -ii-.-. -I. 1 state public

utility regulations and other state laws as a reason for the inefficiencies resulting from this

self-sufficient behavior (Bohi (1994); Bohi and Burtraw (1997); Swift (2001)).

Arimura (2002) uses econometric approaches to study the impact of PUC regulation

on compliance choices, and finds that utilities that face PUC regulation are more likely to

switch fuels instead of purchasing allowances for compliance.

Winebrake et al. (1995) estimated the cost inefficiencies from state government

restrictions on a utility's allowance trading, and estimates the total cost estimates for the

first ten years of Title IV (1995-2005). A command-and-control approach was estimated to

result in compliance costs of $4.19 billion greater than in the unrestricted permit trading

system (-. n_- billion, or an average of A 2- million/year) and an estimated allowance price

of $143/ton.

Winebrake et al. (1995) simulates the additional costs from restrictions on between-state

trading that were under consideration by both New York and Wisconsin. Both states were









trying to minimize allowance sales to states whose emissions will eventually reach New

York/Wisconsin and result in hotspots, which are are areas with extreme emissions levels

that result in greater damages in a particular area relative to damages throughout the

rest of the region. Preventing utilities in New York and Wisconsin from selling allowances

to utilities outside their state would have resulted in more than double the compliance

costs in both states, and increased nationwide compliance costs. Some of the additional

costs from these restrictions would have been offset by lower costs for utilities not in New

York or Wisconsin that would have been able to sell more allowances due to the additional

demand no longer being met by allowances sales from New York and Wisconsin utilities.

Some studies further explain the inefficiencies by examining the actual lost cost

savings that are specifically a result of state PUC regulation under Phase I. Carlson et al.

(2000) find that the actual compliance costs were $339 million (59'-.) greater in 1996 than

the least-cost solution. The study concludes the difference between actual compliance costs

and the least-cost compliance may be attributable to ,Illustment costs associated with

changing fuel contracts and capital expenditures as well as regulatory policies." Sotkiewicz

and Holt (2005) find that PUC regulations resulted in $131 million of the additional

compliance costs relative to the least cost solution. However, there is a significant amount

of compliance costs that remained unexplained.8 My study conjectures long-term coal

contracts may be responsible for what appears to be inefficient behavior resulting in

additional compliance costs.



8 Sotkiewicz and Holt model the possibility of ex post "prudence", which assumes that
there is some cost, such as future state PUC cost disallowance, to the generating unit for
choosing a less cost-effective option. If PUC regulations allow for total pass-through of
costs without threat of ex-post prudence, then a generating unit is indifferent to costs and
may not make the lowest cost compliance option.









2.3.2 Utility-Level Models of Compliance Costs

Previous studies have estimated the compliance costs at the generating unit or

utiitv--1. v,-1, and focus on the impacts of state regulation on utility-level compliance

choices. Swinton (2002) calculates the shadow prices of emissions reductions for seven

Florida power plants from 1990 to 1998 and compares their optimal choices to their actual

actions. Several factors were discussed as the reasons for some utilities making sub-optimal

decisions: state PUC regulations, program learning curve, small magnitude of potential

gains from trade, and uncertainty over the program's longevity.

Swinton (2004) follows the same approach except it expands the study to 40 plants

with data from 1994 to 1998, and introduces the possibility that long-term coal contracts

may prohibit utilities from switching coal types, although it is not modeled. Both studies

find the actual utlit.-J-1. -v. compliance costs to be much higher than the estimated

least-cost solution.

Co--.ii'- and Swinton (1996) use an output distance function to estimate the shadow

price of SO2 emissions abatement for electric power plants in Wisconsin. The study

estimated the allowance shadow price to be greater than the observed allowance prices

at the time, which they assert may be partially explained by Wisconsin's strict state

regulations on SO2 emissions.

Several studies have shown analytically or through simulation models that state PUC

regulations can lead to inefficiencies at the utility-level. Bohi and Burtraw (1992) develop

a model of utility decision-making given two compliance options, purchasing allowances or

installing emissions control technology. Bohi and Burtraw derive two recommendations so

that state regulation does not result in inefficient compliance choices by a utility. First, if

a utility's allowed return is less than its cost of capital with respect to both compliance

options, symmetrical cost recovery rules are recommended as uneven treatment of cost

recovery may create incentives for a utility to make suboptimal compliance choices.

Second, if a utility is allowed to earn more than its cost of capital with regard to both









compliance options, Bohi and Burtraw recommend the more expensive be treated less

favorably. Fullerton et al. (1997) uses a numerical model to determine the impact state

regulation will have on a utility's compliance costs by modeling the cost-minimizing

utility compliance choices and a utility's compliance choices under its Public Utility

Commission rules. The study finds that .i-,iiiii', Ilical cost recovery rules can lead to

utility compliance costs much higher than the least-cost solution, and possibly higher than

a command-and-control approach.

2.3.3 Long-Term Coal Contracts

Joskow (1985, 1988) states that coal contracts decrease transaction costs in coal

purchasing that result from uncertainty and complexity in future coal markets. A utility

may be willing to lp .i more than the current spot market price for coal to protect itself

from unexpected higher rates in the future.

Joskow (1988, 1990) finds that during periods in which the spot market coal prices

were lower than the contracted prices, the contract prices failed to adjust downward. This

downward rigidity of coal prices can lead to utility coal costs being higher than is optimal

in the short run. Some renegotiation, breach of contract, and litigation has occurred,

but nearly all contracts appear to have continued unchanged. The main reason for the

constraints in altering these coal contracts is that less than 15' of coal consumed by

utilities is supplied by a coal company owned by the same utility (Joskow, 1987). Firms

have high legal or negotiation costs of breaking a coal contract when the agreement is

made with a firm that has no financial ties to the utility. Coal contracts may also be

a result of regulations protecting the local coal industry (Arimura 2002). Due to the

inability of contracted coal prices to decrease with spot market prices, large coal price









reductions can lead to significant differences between coal contract prices and spot market

coal prices.9

Ellerman and Montero (1998) found that investment and innovation in coal

production and delivery as well as greater competition between railroads due to the

Si .-.-. i Rail Act of 1980 created lower coal prices during the first year of Phase I,

especially for low sulfur coal from the Powder River Basin. These lower coal prices led to

lower marginal costs of abating SO2 emissions through fuel switching, which is reflected in

the lower than expected allowance price in 1995 (Burtraw et al., 2005). Considering the

downward rigidity of contract coal prices, the same coal price reductions also resulted in

lower spot market prices for both high sulfur and low sulfur coal relative to the coal prices

under contract.

2.4 Inefficiencies Resulting from Coal Contract Constraints

There are three plausible scenarios where binding contract constraints results

in sub-optimal compliance choices. First, during Phase I a utility with high sulfur

coal contracts may be unable to switch to low sulfur coal for compliance when it is



9 A utility cannot sell contracted coal on the spot market because of the transaction
costs involved in selling to another utility from both its contract for coal purchases and
its contract for coal transportation. A coal contract sets a given type and amount of coal
for an agreed upon price from a particular coal source. A transportation contract sets a
given price for delivery of coal purchases from a coal source. The combination of these
two contracts results in the delivered cost of a coal purchase. For one utility to sell coal
to another utility, it would need to either buy out its contract with a provision to deliver
the coal to the other utility or it would need to p ,li for the shipment of the coal from its
facility to the other utility. There are large additional costs associated with either of these
actions. As shown in Joskow, few contracts were bought out, breached, or renegotiated.
Also, there does not appear to be any sales of coal from one utility to another.









cost-effective to do so. Consequently, the utility is forced to sub-optimally install a

scrubber or purchase allowances.10

Second, during Phase I spot coal prices were declining and often were lower than

the price of contract coal of similar characteristics (heat and sulfur content). Contract

constraints may have prevented utilities from switching to lower priced spot market coal

alternatives of similar sulfur and heat content than was being utilized under contract.

Third, under CAIR some utilities may be locked into low sulfur coal contracts entered

into for Title IV compliance and may be unable switch back to high sulfur coal and scrub

if it is cost-effective to do so. Consequently, the contract constraint pushes a utility into

sub-optimal compliance choices such as allowance purchases or scrubber installation while

using low sulfur coal.

An examination of the data for Phase I affected units indicates that of the 26

scrubbers installed by the end of 1996 in response to the passage of the 1990 Clean Air

Act Amendments, 23 of those scrubbers were installed at facilities with 40 percent or

more of its coal deliveries by contract and with 20 of them having a weighted average SO2

emission rates greater than the Phase I allowed level of 2.5 lbs. S02/mmBtu (pounds

per million Btus of heat).11 Additionally, the 14 generating units with scrubbers and

greater than 7.'-. of coal under contract all have emissions rates over 2.5 lbs. S02/mmBtu.

This indicates the possibility that high sulfur coal contract constraints are driving some



10 The actual purchasing of allowances is not what increases iiil, li-i v---ide compliance
costs. It is the sub-optimality of the allowance purchase that increases the total
compliance costs in an industry.

1 A total of 29 scrubbers were installed between 1990 and 1996. Three of the scrubbers
are not considered to have been installed for compliance of Phase I. Two were installed
on Port Washington units in Wisconsin to meet New Source Review requirements while a
third was installed on a Yates unit as results of a pilot program.









compliance decisions.12 The idea that spot market purchases may have been preferred can

be indicated in the fact that many Phase I facilities in 1996 had allowed both long-term

high and low sulfur coal contracts to expire during the 1990-1995 period and replaced

those with spot market coal of an equivalent or lower sulfur content. This may also be

an indication of potentially binding low sulfur contract constraints as utilities face future

compliance decisions under CAIR.13

Contract constraints will continue to bind a generating unit's decisions until the

expiration of the contract. The average length of coal supply contracts (weighted by

tonnage) in 1996 was 16.5 years with 53.;:' of delivered coal under contracts signed for

greater than 10 years and 22.1 of greater than 30 years. The impacts of coal contract

rigidities will dissipate over time. However, the impacts of these contracts on compliance

decisions could continue to linger for years due to the length of many of these contracts.14



12 Data used is available from the EIA FERC-423 database and Electric Power Annual
1996.
13 Data from the EIA FERC-423 Database and Coal Transportation Rate Database
show the percentage of coal purchased through contract agreements. Of the 93 Phase
I Affected Units with contract expirations between 1990-1995, 62 did not sign any new
contracts, 13 replaced high sulfur contracts with low sulfur contracts, and only 18 replaced
old contracts with new contracts for the same sulfur content. Contracts were shifted from
11-30 years (decrease of 48 to :; ') to contracts of 5 or fewer years (increase from 13 to
2,!'). Low sulfur contracted coal deliveries increased by 3-'1. and high sulfur contracted
coal deliveries decreased by 50'. for Phase I affected units between 1988 and 1997 while
non-affected units saw an increase of _i'. and a decrease of !-'., respectively. From the
available FERC-423 data for 133 plants with at least one affected unit, 34 reduced the
percentage of coal under contract by greater than 25 percent: 12 switched from high
contract coal to high spot market coal, 12 switched from low sulfur contract coal to low
sulfur spot market coal, 8 switched from high sulfur contract coal to low sulfur spot
market coal, and 2 switched from low sulfur contract coal to high sulfur spot market coal.
14 The length of the contract does not represent the years remaining on the length of the
contract. There will be variation in the time frame under which these contracts expire.









2.5 Model and Parameters

The model is a static production cost model that draws heavily from Sotkiewicz

(2003) and Fullerton et al. (1997), which simulates production costs at the generating unit

level with constraints on demand for electricity and emissions levels, and introducing high

sulfur coal and low sulfur coal contract constraints. It would seem that adding contract

constraints to the model would not cause any in iir, disruptions. However, the model

results in rather complex interpretations due to how the contract constraints interact

with the non-convexities of a unit's scrubber choice. Let "i" be the index of units. The

parameters in the model are described below.

Technology Parameters:

* zi E {0, 1} represents a generating unit's discrete scrubber choice where zi = 1 if a
unit installs a scrubber and zi = 0 if a unit does not install a scrubber.

Pi represents the levelized yearly cost of a scrubber, which are the average annual
costs from depreciation and use of capital plus the operation and maintenance costs
of installing and operating a scrubber.15

ri E [0, 1] represents the scrubber emissions capture rate or emissions removal
efficiency rate, which is the fraction of emissions that the scrubber removes from the
exhaust stream. The removal rate is independent of the sulfur content of the coal
used by a utility because it removes some percentage of emissions after production.
Depending on the scrubber technology and vintage, it can remove 25-9' -. of SO2
emissions.16

Demand Parameter:

Di represents electricity demand, in million Btus of heat input, for a given
generating unit. Demand is derived by taking the total kilowatt-hours of electricity



15 The capital costs are assumed to be $260/kW under Phase I and $141.34/kW under
CAIR. Capital costs are discounted at a 10' rate based on a 20 year equipment lifespan
( (+di). The operation and maintenance costs are assumed to be 2.0 mills/kWh under
Phase I and 1.23 mills/kWh under CAIR.
16 Table 30: "Flue Gas Desulfurization (FGD) Capacity in Operation at U.S. Electric
Utility Plants as of December 1996" from the 1996 Electric Power Annual Vol. II









demand multiplied by the heat input required to generate one kilowatt-hour
of electricity. Demand at the unit level is assumed to be fixed. Modeling each
generating unit's hourly dispatch and hourly costs in the context of varying loads
and dispatch are not easily modeled, and would require arbitrary assumptions about
how units would be utilized. For these reasons, it is assumed in this paper that
utilities do not have the option to shift electricity production across generating units
to meet demand.

Coal Parameters:

* Ci,Ci are the quantities, in tons, of high sulfur and low sulfur spot market coal use
for a given unit, respectively.

C2,Cj are the quantities, in tons, of high sulfur and low sulfur contract coal use for
a given unit, respectively.

Pi,Pi are the delivered prices, in dollars/ton, of high sulfur and low sulfur spot
market coal for a given unit, respectively.

P,,P, are the delivered prices, in dollars/ton, of high sulfur and low sulfur contract
coal for a given unit, respectively. Delivered coal prices will differ across regions of
the U.S. due to the location of coal mines across the country.17 It is assumed that
generating units are price takers in purchasing coal.

H[,,H, are the heat content for high sulfur and low sulfur spot market coal for a
given unit, respectively. Heat content is the average amount of heat, in million Btus,
in one ton of coal. The delivered price is the dollars/mmBtu paid for coal.

H,,H, are the heat content for high sulfur and low sulfur contract coal for a given
unit, respectively. The heat content will differ across regions of the U.S. due to the
heat content of coal from different coal mines across the country.

Si,Si are the sulfur content for high sulfur and low sulfur spot market coal for a
given unit, respectively. Sulfur content is the percentage of a ton of coal comprised
of sulfur.



17 For example, a generating unit in Wisconsin will have different delivered coal prices
for a particular coal type relative to a unit in Georgia. Wisconsin is closer to the low
sulfur coal mines in the Powder River Basin in the Western U.S., which results in a much
lower delivered price to Wisconsin than to Georgia.









S2',Sj are the sulfur content for high sulfur and low sulfur contract coal for a given
unit, respectively. The sulfur content will differ across regions of the U.S. due to the
heat content of coal from different coal mines across the country.

represents the rate at which sulfur is transformed into SO2, which is assumed to
be a constant (1.9) for simplicity.18

C0, Ci represent the contract constraints for a given unit, which requires the use of
a minimum amount of each coal type.

Allowance Parameters:

* Ei represents a generating unit's tons of SO2 emissions.

* Ae represents a generating unit's initial allowance allocation in tons of SO2
emissions.

Ai represents a generating unit's net allowance position in tons of SO2 emissions,
which is the difference between the actual allowances used and a unit's initial
allowance allocation. A unit is a net buyer of allowances (positive excess demand)
if it uses more allowances than its initial allocation (Ai > 0), a net seller (negative
excess demand) if it uses fewer allowances than its initial allocation (Ai < 0), and
neither if it uses exactly the same amount of allowances as its initial allocation
(A =- 0).

PA is the allowance price, which is endogenously determined in the model by
the decisions of the utilities. Each allowance that is bought (sold) will increase
(decrease) the utility's production costs by PA. Each generating unit takes PA as
given.

2.6 Generating Unit Level Decision-Making Process

The model is a static model with decisions made at the generating unit level where

each generating unit chooses its coal use, net allowance position, and scrubber choice to



is Sulfur content is the tons of sulfur per ton of coal. In this paper, any coal that results
in emissions greater than 2.5 lbs. SO2/l\ I 1tu is considered high sulfur coal. Under Phase
II of Title IV and CAIR, the high sulfur-low sulfur cut-off value is reduced from 2.5 to
1.2 lbs./\ i\l Ibtu. Under CAIR the new allowance allocation is based on 0.6 lbs./\l\I Ibtu,
which cannot be met by fuel switching alone because low sulfur coal normally ranges from
0.7-1.2 lbs./\ lil Itu with few shipments of low sulfur coal resulting in emissions of 0.6
lbs./\ l ktu. m = 1.9 for bituminous and anthracite coal, m = 1.75 for subbituminous
coal, m = 1.5 for lignite coal. These differ due to each coal types composition.









minimize its costs based on its constraints for emissions, electricity demand, and coal use

for both high sulfur and low sulfur contract coal.

2.6.1 Generating Unit's Problem



mm zPiz + PAA, + FPC + P + PCi (2-1)
zi,AiChC, ill',C 2i
subject to...A' + A, > (1- zrs)(m)(CASf, + CS>1 + CilS + C>SI) Al (2-2)

(CIH + CH, + CtjHi8 + CH>) > Di Ai2 (2-3)

Ch h /ih (2-4)

C, pgi (2-5)

C _, Ci > 0 (2-6)

Zi E {0, 1} (2-7)

Equation (3-1) represents the unit's cost function. These costs include the cost of

scrubber installation (ziPi,), net costs of allowance purchases (PAAi), and costs of coal
purchases (PihCi + PiCIQ + PfhC, + PC: ). The emissions constraint is shown in (3-2),

where the number of allowances held (Ae + Ai) must be as large as the amount of total
emissions by the generating unit [(1 zri)(rm)(CSi[ + C hSh + CSi + CizSi)]. Total

emissions is a function of the amount of each coal type used as well as the emissions

reduction due to a scrubber, if one is installed. The Lagrange multiplier on the emissions

constraint is represented by A~i. The demand constraint requires that the amount of heat

input to generate electricity (ChHh + CchHch + CQ1H, + CczH) must cover the consumer

demand (Di) for electricity expressed as heat input, which is seen in (3-3). The Lagrange

multiplier on the demand constraint is represented by Ai2. Coal contract constraints
require the unit to use a specific amount of each contract coal type, Cc for high sulfur

coal in (3-4) and ci? for low sulfur coal in (3-5). A unit will use exactly the contracted

amount because (1) if the contract coal is more expensive than spot market coal, then a









unit will not want to use any more contract coal than is necessary and (2) if contract coal

is cheaper than spot market coal, the coal producer would prefer to sell any additional

non-contracted coal through the spot market. The Lagrange multiplier for each contract

constraint on each coal type is represented by /ih for high sulfur contract coal and /il for

low sulfur contract coal.

2.6.2 First-Order Conditions

The partial derivative with respect to Ai yields the impact of a one unit change in the

net allowances purchased on the unit's total costs.

PA Ai = 0 (2-8)

Since Ai can be either positive or negative based on the net allowance position, (2-8) will

hold with equality. The additional cost to the firm of emitting one more ton of emissions is

equivalent to the allowance price, Ail = PA

Let f E {h, 1} represent the type of coal and g E {s, c} represent the type of purchase.

Each coal type has its own sulfur content (S9,, heat content (H9), and delivered price

(Pi). The partial derivatives with respect to Cf represent the impact a one unit change

in "f" type sulfur coal (high or low) from a "g" type purchasing agreement (spot market

or contract) has on the unit's total costs.


Pi$s + Ai1( ziTir()(m)() Ai2 Hh > 0, = 0 if CQ > 0 (2-9)

Pj + Al(1 zir)(m)(Sf)) iA2H > 0,= 0 if CQ > 0 (2-10)

P' + Ai1(1 z riL()(Sm)(S) Ai2Hi h = 0 (2-11)

Pi + AiI(1- z-r)(m)(S) Ai2HA H i= 0 (2-12)

The cost of using one more unit of C0 can be di- _V.regated into four different

cost changes: P,[ is the additional costs of purchasing one more unit of coal, Ai (1 -

ziri)(m)(Sf) is the additional costs of the extra emissions from one more unit of coal,









Ai2Hif is the benefit from meeting the demand remaining from using the additional unit

of coal, and pif represents the reduction in costs from meeting the contract constraint. If

Cf > 0, then (3-37) or (2-10) holds with equality. Since the contract constraint holds

with equality, (2-11) and (2-12) .i.- li- hold with equality.

2.6.3 Characterizing a Unit's Spot Market Fuel Choices and Marginal Cost of
Abatement from Fuel Switching

A generating unit's choice of fuel type is based on its scrubber installation choice as

well as its marginal cost of abatement relative to the allowance price. In this section, the

scrubber choice is taken as given and the focus is solely on comparing the allowance price

to the marginal cost of abatement of switching from high sulfur coal to low sulfur coal.

2.6.3.1 Necessary conditions for using both high sulfur and low sulfur coal

If a generating unit uses both high sulfur and low sulfur spot market coal (Cf, >

0, C, > 0), the additional costs of using each coal type are equal and (3-37) and (2-10)

hold with equality, or

P4 + Ail(1 zr)) (m)(S), s) Pi + Ai I( z-ri) (m) (S) (2 )
Hh His

(2-13) can be rearranged to isolate the shadow price of allowances or emissions, Ail, to

derive the Marginal Cost of Abatement from Switching Fuels from high sulfur spot to low

sulfur spot market coal (MCA'"8) in (2-14). Exploiting (2-8), the allowance price equals

MCA"':


PA = Ail MCA8'8 = h ((2-14)
(1- zir)(Tn)(P ||- )

The shadow price is equal to the difference in price per unit of heat divided by the

difference in emissions per unit of heat.

2.6.3.2 Only high sulfur coal use: Necessary conditions

If a generating unit uses only high sulfur spot market coal (Cfi > 0), the additional

costs to the generating unit of using high sulfur spot market coal is weakly less than using









low sulfur spot market coal and (3-37) holds with equality while (2-10) holds with weak

inequality, or

P' + A (l Zi i)(mn) (Sh) < Pi Ail(l ziri)(m) (S) (25)
------ 4----- -----4----


(2-15) can be rearranged to show the allowance price is weakly less than MCA'8:


PA < MCA8/ = H1"1 h (2-16)
(1 ziri)(m)(j-h I ( )
Th Ti

2.6.3.3 Only low sulfur coal use: Necessary conditions

If a generating unit chooses to use only low sulfur spot market coal (CQ > 0), the

additional costs of using low sulfur spot market coal is weakly less than using high sulfur

spot market coal and (2-10) holds with equality while (3-37) holds with weak inequality,

or
Pi + Ai(l zir)(mr)(Sfh) P + AI (l zri)((m)(S) (27)


(2-17) can be rearranged to show that the allowance price is weakly greater than MCA'":


PA > MCA8'8 H= H7 (2-18)
(t z)ri)(m)( ||h 71


2.6.4 Coal Use Under a High Sulfur Coal Contract Constraint

Pih is the shadow price of the high sulfur contract constraint, which includes both the
change in costs due to fuel costs and emissions. If contract coal is more expensive than

spot market coal, then Pih > 0 and it increases fuel costs. If contract coal is cheaper than

spot market coal, then Pih < 0 and it decreases fuel costs.

Assume a unit has a high sulfur coal contract and uses only low sulfur spot market

coal (no high sulfur spot market coal). So (2-10) and (2-11) hold with equality. It has

been shown in (2-17) that if a unit uses only low sulfur spot market coal, PA > MCAA'j:

P+ + Ai1(1 ziri)(m)(Sh) ih Pi + Ai(1 ziri)()(S) (
H c(2 19)









By rearranging (2-19) and exploiting (2-8), it can be shown that the allowance price

is equal to Marginal Cost of Abatement of switching from high sulfur contract to low

sulfur spot market coal (MCA'") plus an additional term representing the benefits of

meeting the contract constraint, which is weakly greater than MCA'"8:
Pih
Ai = PA = MCA,'" + ih > MCAs's (2-20)


From (2-20), if MCAS'" MCAI'" > 0, then pih > 0 and high sulfur contract coal is

more expensive than spot market high sulfur coal. If MCA'"8 MCA'"8 < 0, then pih can

be positive or negative. If Pih < 0, then contract coal is cheaper than spot market coal and

the additional compliance costs due to emissions dominate the savings from the lower fuel

costs. If Pih > 0, then contract coal is cheaper than spot market coal and the savings from

the lower fuel costs dominate the increased compliance costs due to emissions.
Pih
-h > MCA8'" MCAf'" (221)
(1 ziri)(m)( -H )
ibh Tii

Now assume a unit has a high sulfur coal contract and uses only high sulfur spot

market coal (no low sulfur spot market coal). (2-11) and (2-12) hold with equality

while (2-10) holds with weak inequality. Also, it has been shown that when a unit uses

only high sulfur spot market coal, PA < MCA"'8. Using the same approach as in the

previous case, it can be found that the allowance price is weakly less than MCA'"8 plus an

additional term representing the benefits of meeting the contract constraint:
Pih
Th PA < MCA"'' + io Sk (2 22)






determine its sign.

Ps, + Ai1(l fri)(mn)(Suh) Pl + Ai1(l zrti)()(Sch) Uih
dHe Hh









p P5 + Ai1(1 z+ri) (m) (S2) PA + Ai (l zri) (m)(S) (2
(2 23)
He He H
ih ih ih
If the additional costs, both from fuel costs and emissions, of using high sulfur

contract coal is more expensive than using high sulfur spot market coal, then tih > 0. If

the additional costs, both from fuel costs and emissions, of using high sulfur contract coal

is less than using high sulfur spot market coal, then Pih < 0. If the additional costs, both

from fuel costs and emissions, of using high sulfur contract coal is is the same as using

high sulfur spot market coal, then ih = 0.

Now assume a unit has a high sulfur coal contract and uses both high sulfur and low

sulfur spot market coal. So (2-10) and (2-11) hold with equality. Also, it has been shown

in (2-15) that when a unit uses both high and low sulfur spot market coal, PA = MCA"'8:
Pih
H0
PA= MCA' = MCA<' + ih (2-24)
(l- z)r(m)( Tn))

By solving for Ph in (2-24), the sign of Pih can be determined. If MCA'" MCA' = 0,

then Pih = 0 and high sulfur contract coal has the same cost as high sulfur spot market

coal. If MCA'" MCA'"8 > 0, then Pih > 0 and contract coal is more expensive to use

than spot market coal. If MCA'" MCA'"8 < 0, then pih < 0 and contract coal is cheaper

to use than spot market coal.
P ih
(h Sc = MCA'8 MCAI" (2-25)



2.6.5 Coal Use under a Low Sulfur Coal Contract Constraint

pI- is the shadow price of the low sulfur contract constraint, which includes both the

change in costs due to fuel costs and emissions. If contract coal is more expensive than

spot market coal, then pil > 0 and it increases fuel costs. If contract coal is cheaper than

spot market coal, then pil < 0 and it decreases fuel costs.

Assume a unit has a low sulfur coal contract and uses only high sulfur spot market

coal. It has already been shown in (2-16) that when a unit uses only high sulfur spot









market coal, PA < MCA"'8. (3-37) and (2-12) hold with equality while (2-10) holds with

a weak inequality. Using the same approach as in the previous section yields:
hil
Ail PA= MCA'c ---- < MCAs" (2-26)
(t z)ri)(m)( h )
Th 77

Using (2-26), the sign of pd can be determined. If MCA'" MCA'"s > 0, then

pil > 0 and low sulfur contract coal is more expensive to use than low sulfur spot

market coal. If MCAs'" MCAc'" < 0, then pin can either be negative or positive. If

MCA"'" MCA'" < 0 and Pid > 0, then the higher fuel costs dominate the lower costs

from emissions. If MCA'"' MCA'" < 0 and pil < 0, then the the lower costs from

emissions dominate higher fuel costs.
ILil
H(1 S S- > MCA'c MCA's, (2-27)


Now assume a unit has a low sulfur coal contract and uses only low sulfur spot

market coal. So (2-10) and (2-12) hold with equality while (3-37) holds with a weak

inequality. It has already been shown in (2-17) that when a unit uses only low sulfur spot

market coal, PA > MCA'".
l{il
PA > MCA',c _-- (2-28)


Although the sign of Pi, cannot be determined by comparing MCA<'" and MCA"'.

The first order conditions for low sulfur contract and spot market coal can be used to

determine its sign.

Pi + Ai1(l zri) (m) (S) Pi + Ail(1 ziri)(mn) (S) pi
Hi H/,

P Pi + Ai1(1 zri) (m)(Si) + Ai (1 zri) (m)(S) (229)
--> -(2-29)
H, H i H s ,

If the additional costs, both from fuel costs and emissions, of using low sulfur contract

coal is more expensive than using low sulfur spot market coal, then Pi, > 0. If the









additional costs, both from fuel costs and emissions, of using low sulfur contract coal is

less than using low sulfur spot market coal, then phi < 0. If the additional costs, both from

fuel costs and emissions, of using low sulfur contract coal is is the same as using low sulfur

spot market coal, then pi = 0.

Now assume a generating unit has a low sulfur coal contract and uses both high sulfur

and low sulfur spot market coal. So (3-37), (2-10), and (2-12) hold with equality and

PA = MCA"':

PA = MCAf' = MCA8'" s s (2-30)
(1- zri)(m) (h H- ) (
ih ii
By solving for pil, the sign of pi, can be determined. If MCA>'c MCA'" = 0, then

pi = 0 and contract coal is as costly to use as spot market coal. If MCA' M MCA'"' > 0,

then Pih > 0 and contract coal is more expensive to use than spot market coal. If

MCA',c MCA''" < 0, then Pih < 0 and contract coal is cheaper to use than spot market

coal.

MCAf' = MCA8'c (231)
( z r)(n)($ S S-
h 77Ti

2.6.6 Generating Unit-Level Compliance Costs

Total compliance costs for a generating unit are the additional costs due to ,IH.lfying

the emissions constraint, including costs from switching fuels, the costs from its net

allowance position, and scrubber installation costs. Compliance costs may be positive

or negative depending on its compliance decisions and its initial allowance allocation.

The scrubber installation costs are represented by Pi,, and will only attribute to a unit's

compliance costs if a scrubber is installed (zi 1).

The costs of a unit's net allowance position is the difference between a generating

unit's initial allowance allocation and its actual emissions multiplied by the allowance price

(PAA,).

The costs of switching fuels is the larger of two values: (1) total costs of actual coal

purchases (PCihyh + P$C4i + Ph Ci + PcCc) minus the costs of purchasing only high sulfur









spot market coal given any contracted coal (Pi'M + PCA + P5C'), or (2) zero

where:
,MAX Di- C H C Ht (2 32)
ih
The latter will only occur if it is weakly cheaper for the generating unit to use low sulfur
ps ps
coal without the emissions restrictions (Q > -l ). Notice that the contracted coal will be

used regardless and will cancel out.

ziPi, + PAA, + max{(P Cf1 + P, Pzsh MA), 0} (2 33)


Combining each of the three cost components results in a unit's total net compliance costs.

Even though the contract coal has no direct affect, the contracts will indirectly affect

compliance costs through a unit's allowance position and scrubber choice. Proposition 1

shows the sufficient conditions under which a coal contract will either increase or decrease

compliance costs.

Proposition 1: Given the scrubber choice

(i) If PA > MCA"'? and the sulfur to heat content ratio of high sulfur contract coal
(h) is greater than the sulfur to heat content ratio of high sulfur spot market coal
("), then a high sulfur coal contract increases compliance costs.

(ii) If PA < MCA"'j and the sulfur to heat content ratio of high sulfur contract coal
(h) is greater than the sulfur to heat content ratio of high sulfur spot market coal
( ), then a high sulfur coal contract increases compliance costs.

(iii) If PA > MCA"'. and the sulfur to heat content ratio of low sulfur contract coal ( )
is greater than the sulfur to heat content ratio of low sulfur spot market coal (>),
then a low sulfur coal contract increases compliance costs.

(iv) If PA < MCA"'S, then a low sulfur coal contract decreases compliance costs.

See the Appendix A for detailed proofs of Proposition 1. Proposition l(iv) may seem

counter-intuitive, but it shows the importance of being careful about defining a unit's









compliance costs versus a unit's total costs, which is something to keep in mind for the

remainder of the paper.

2.6.7 Generating Unit's Net Allowance Position: Excess Demand Correspon-
dence

Assume there are no contract constraints (C, = 0, C, = 0). A generating unit's net

allowance position, or excess demand, is the difference between a unit's initial allowance

allocation and the unit's actual allowance use as governed by (3-2). From (3-2) and (3-3),

the minimum and maximum excess demand for allowances can be formally derived.

If PA < MCA"'8 a unit will use the maximum amount of high sulfur spot market coal

which can be derived from (3-3):
CMAX Di (2-34)
Hh (2 34)
1ih

The use of all high sulfur spot market coal leads to the maximum emissions level:


EMAX (1 Zii(m)(S)( ) (2-35)
H ih

Inserting C,,MAX in for h in (3-2) gives an expression for the maximum allowance excess

demand, which is the difference between the maximum emissions level (E MAX) and the

initial allowance allocation (A:):

AMAX MAX Ae (1 z Lr)(m)(St)) A' (2-36)
11ih

If a unit's initial allocation cannot cover its maximum possible emissions, then it will have

a positive net allowance position and be a net buyer of allowances.

If PA > MCA"', a unit will use the maximum amount of low sulfur spot market coal,

which can be derived from (3-3):

CSMAX (2-37)
Hil
The use of all low sulfur spot market coal leads to the minimum emissions level:


E" = (1 zrj)(T)(S)( ) (2-38)
U,









Inserting C,,)MAX in (2 37) for C, in (3-3) gives an expression for the minimum allowance

excess demand, which is the difference between the minimum emissions level (EMIN) and

the initial allowance allocation (Ar):


AMIN MN AE (- z ()(S Ae (2-39)
11 Hli

If a unit's initial allocation can cover its minimum possible emissions, then it will have a

negative net allowance position and be a net seller of allowances.

If PA = MCA'8, a unit may use any combination of high sulfur spot market

coal and low sulfur spot market coal, which leads to any level of excess demand in the

range (E,1N A', EAX Ar). The allowance excess demand can be represented by

Ai (OEfAX (1 O)EMIN A) where the constant 0 [0, 1]. A unit that is indifferent

between fuel switching and allowances purchases could be either a net buyer or a net

seller.

Combining the excess demands for each of the three cases creates the Excess Demand

Correspondence:

A AX if PA > MCA'
A, = A AX (1 )AMIN if PA MCA'8 VO e [0, 1]

AIN if PA < MCA'"

A generating unit's excess demand correspondence can be seen graphically in Figure

2.8(i). High sulfur spot market coal use corresponds to the right-hand vertical line where

PA < MCA"'8. Low sulfur spot market coal use corresponds to the left-hand vertical line

where PA > MCA"'>. The case where a generating unit uses some combination of low

sulfur spot market coal and high sulfur spot market coal is represented by the horizontal

line at which PA = MCA"'.









2.6.7.1 Cost savings of fuel switching versus allowance purchases when
PA > MCAf'

Assuming that high sulfur spot market coal is cheaper than low sulfur spot market

coal ( < ), a generating unit that does not have an emissions constraint prefers to

use high sulfur spot market coal to meet electricity demand.19 Allowing generating units

to have a choice in their compliance options can lead to costs savings in several cases.

First, consider the case that PA > MCA"'j. Using low sulfur spot market coal leads to

the minimum number of allowances used by the unit (A"IN). Assuming that the initial

allocation by the firm is larger than the minimum possible allowance use, the unit will sell

its remaining allowances after meeting its allowance requirement. The excess demand for

such a unit can be seen in (2-39), where the excess demand will actually be negative.

The unit's cost savings from switching fuels over purchasing allowances is (PA -

MCAs's)(A AX AF"), which is the area "a+b" seen in Figure 2.8(ii). The dark-shaded

area (a) is the cost savings for the generating unit from abating emissions through fuel

switching instead of purchasing additional allowances. The light-shaded area (b) is the

cost savings from abating more than its initial allocation and selling the extra allowances.

2.6.7.2 Effects of high sulfur coal contracts on excess demand and costs

Now consider how a high sulfur coal contract will impact a generating unit's allowance

excess demand correspondence in Figure 2.8, which is summarized in Proposition 2.

Proposition 2: Given the scrubber choice,

(i) For the range of allowance prices PA > MCA"'8, a high sulfur coal contract will
weakly increase a unit's allowance excess demand.

(ii) For the range of allowance prices PA < MCA"'8, a high sulfur coal contract will
Sc S
weakly decrease excess demand if Sh < .h




19 The assumption that high sulfur coal is cheaper than low sulfur coal is supported by
actual coal prices.









(iii) For the range of allowance prices PA < MCA"'8, a high sulfur coal contract will
SC SS
weakly increase excess demand if S > .h
Hfh H Tih
Proof of Proposition 2(i):

For allowance prices PA > MCA"', a unit prefers to use all low sulfur coal, which

leads to the minimum allowance excess demand (AMIN). A high sulfur coal contract

forces some high sulfur coal use and decreases low sulfur coal use from CSMAX to C8,MAX

which is the maximum amount of low sulfur coal a unit will use given its high sulfur coal

contract:
sMAX .sMAX Di (20)
CIS,, > JihH (240)

The decrease in low sulfur spot market coal use increases emissions from EMIN to E IN

which is the minimum emissions given the high sulfur coal contract constraint:


MN MIN (1 zr)( m) (S : s,MAX + Sicj (-41)
Si < r+ 2^i


Higher emissions must be covered by additional allowances, which results in the minimum

excess demand with a high sulfur coal contract to be greater than the minimum excess

demand with no high sulfur coal contract:


= AMIN < Ai, v -MIN A (2-42)


Therefore, a high sulfur coal contract will increase excess demand for allowance prices

PA > MCA8'".E

Proof of Proposition 2(ii) and 2(iii):

For allowance prices PA < MCA"'8, a unit prefers to use all high sulfur coal, which

leads to the maximum allowance excess demand (AjMAX). A high sulfur coal contract

forces a unit to decrease its high sulfur spot market coal use from CMAX to CMAX

where:
Cis,MAX ^s,MAX Di -c H (24
ih >ih CH (2-43) i
H^sh i









SC SS
If < the sulfur content per unit of heat content is lower for high sulfur
ih Th
contract coal than high sulfur spot market coal and will decrease the maximum emissions

from EMAX to EMAX.

M EMAX < MAX t Z i m)AX + S ,~ ) (2-44)


Lower emissions result in a decrease in a unit's maximum excess demand from AMAX to

AMAX in Figure 2.8(i):

= AAX > i -. MAX E Ae (2-45)

Therefore, a high sulfur coal contract for coal with a lower sulfur to heat content ratio will

decrease excess demand for allowance prices PA < MCA'".f
SC SS
If > ', the sulfur content per unit of heat content is greater for high sulfur
Hfh Hh
contract coal than high sulfur spot market coal and will increase the maximum emissions

from EMAX to MAX.

E, E7MAX > FMAX (_ Ziri) (n) (S j- MAX + S~ (2 4
SUi +i ~ihih) 2-4)

Greater emissions result in an increase in a unit's maximum excess demand from AMAX to

AMAX in Figure 2.8(ii):

= AMAX i< Ai', EMAX AA (2-47)

Therefore, a high sulfur coal contract for coal with a higher sulfur to heat content ratio

will increase excess demand for allowance prices PA < MCA'".E

A binding high sulfur coal contract that restricts a unit's ability to switch to low

sulfur coal can force a net seller of allowances to decrease their allowance sales from AmIN

to AIN and abate fewer emissions than the generating unit would prefer as shown in

Figure 2.8(i). If the contract constraint is large enough it will shift AMIN to the right of

Ai = 0 and force a unit to be a net buyer. If the contract constraint forces the generating

unit to use all high sulfur coal, then the excess demand is a vertical line where the unit's

only choice is to purchase the maximum amount of allowances. This case may have









occurred during Phase I because some generating units purchased 1C(i' high sulfur coal

through contracts in 1996.20

High sulfur coal is assumed to be the preferred coal to use prior to Title IV as units

would wish to use the cheapest coal regardless of sulfur content, which was usually high

sulfur coal. In Figure 2.8, a unit prefers to use low sulfur coal because PA > MCA"'8, and

the compliance costs from switching fuels to abate emissions can be seen in area (a + b).

Area (b + c) is the revenue gained (negative cost) from selling the remaining allowances

that are available due to abating emissions below a unit's initial allowance allocation. The

net compliance costs for a unit will be the costs of switching fuels minus the revenues from

allowance sales, or (a + b) (b + c) = (a c). If (a c) < 0, then a unit will have negative

compliance costs.

Now consider how a high sulfur coal contract will impact the excess demand

correspondence, compliance costs, and total costs. As has already been shown above

and can be seen in Figure 2.8, a high sulfur coal contract will increase the minimum excess

demand from A"IN to A~If and may increase or decrease the maximum excess demand

depending on the relative sulfur to heat content ratio of contract to spot market coal.

These shifts in a unit's excess demand may have three distinct effects on a unit's

costs. The first cost impact is the additional compliance costs to a unit from lost

allowance sales, which is represented by area (d) in Figure 2.8. A unit must use some

high sulfur coal, which results in a unit covering additional emissions through more

expensive allowances instead of switching to low sulfur coal.

The second impact results from the difference in the sulfur to heat content ratio
SC S
between high sulfur contract and spot market coal. If h < then the maximum

emissions a unit can create will decrease and AjAX < AMAX. This will decrease the

compliance costs by (f) in Figure 2.8(i) for reducing emissions to the allowance allocation



20 Available from FERC-423 Data.









emissions level. If h > h then the maximum emissions a unit can create will increase
Th fih
and A\AX > AMAX. This will increase the compliance costs by area (f) in Figure 2.8(ii)

for reducing emissions to the allowance allocation emissions level.

Consider how these shifts in excess demand will impact a unit's net compliance

costs. The increase in the minimum excess demand will increase net compliance costs by

decreasing area (b) and area (c). If maximum excess demand decreases, net compliance

costs decrease by area (f) in Figure 2.8(i). Combining the two impacts results in net

compliance costs of (a c) in Figure 2.8(i). If maximum excess demand increases, net

compliance costs increase by area (f) in Figure 2.8(ii). Combining the two impacts results

in net compliance costs of (a + f c) in in Figure 2.8(ii).

The third cost impact results from different prices for high sulfur spot market and

contract coal, which is represented by area (e). Higher priced contract coal causes a unit

to have additional fuel costs to meeting electricity demand, which is an increase a unit's

total costs.

The graphical description of a high sulfur coal contract's impacts on excess demand

and costs can be seen in the example defined in Table 3-1. Given the coal characteristics,

demand, allowance allocation, and allowance price, and using a high sulfur contract coal

price of $1.50/mmBtu, the minimum and maximum allowance use and MCA"'8 can be

computed if a unit faces no high sulfur coal contract (C =- 0). For this example, high

sulfur contract and spot market coal are assumed to have the same characteristics, which

isolates the effect that high sulfur coal contracts have on excess demand for allowance

prices PA > MCA'".

The minimum allowance use based on the low sulfur coal characteristics is 11,400

tons while the maximum allowance use based on the high sulfur spot market coal

characteristics is 38,000 tons. The MCA'"8 is $270.68, which is lower than the allowance

price of $300.00. So a unit will switch to all low sulfur coal to minimize its total costs. In

doing so, it will use use 11,400 of its allowance allocation to cover its minimum emissions









level and sell the remaining 8,600 allowances at $300.00 each. Net compliance costs are the

additional costs from switching to low sulfur spot market coal plus the costs of allowance

purchases, which is $4.62 million. Total costs are the total cost of fuel purchases minus

allowance sales, which is :-, million.

Now consider the same unit with a high sulfur coal contract for 500,000 tons of coal,

which accounts for half of the required heat input. The maximum allowance use remains

at 38,000 tons, but the minimum allowance use decreases to 24,700 tons because of the

coal contract. The MCA8' is $90.23, which is much lower than the allowance price of

$300.00 and MCA'"8 of $270.68. The coal contract results in compliance costs (costs

of switching fuels minus allowance sales) of $5.01 million and total costs to meeting

electricity demand (low sulfur spot market coal purchases plus high sulfur contract coal

purchases plus allowance purchases) of $38.61 million. Compliance costs increased by

$390,000 because the unit could not switch all its coal use to low sulfur coal. Total costs

to the unit increased by $2.79 million because of the higher price for the contract coal.

Another possibility is that the high sulfur contract coal could actually be cheaper,

which is reasonable because the main reason for making a coal contract agreement is for

protection against future coal price fluctuations. This case can be seen in Figure 2.8,

where MCA'"8 > MCAj'" and there is actually a cost savings to the unit from using high

sulfur contract coal over high sulfur spot market coal. The net compliance costs remain

the same as in the previous example, area (a c).21 However, the total costs to the unit

will decrease relative to not having coal under the contracted price. Area (d + e) is the

additional compliance costs to the unit for not being able to switch to low sulfur coal.

Area (e) are the "cost 'i,-s,- of using lower priced high sulfur contract coal over high

sulfur spot market coal.



21 For simplicity, the sulfur to heat content ratio is assumed to be equal for high sulfur
contract and spot market coal.









By using the same assumptions as in Example 1 except changing the price of high

sulfur contract coal to $1.20/mmBtu, compliance costs and total costs to a unit when

contract coal is cheaper can be computed. MCA'"8 is ", 11.40. The change in net com-

pliance costs remain the same at $390,000 while the costs due to the lower priced coal

actually decrease by about $1.2 million. The unit actually has benefits by lowering its total

costs by $810,000 through the coal contract even though it must increase its compliance

costs.

2.6.7.3 Cost savings of allowance purchases versus fuel switching when
PA < MCAf',

Assuming that high sulfur spot market coal is cheaper than low sulfur spot market
p s S
coal ( < ), a generating unit that does not have an emissions constraint prefers

to use high sulfur spot market coal to meet electricity demand. Consider the case that

PA < MCA"'S. Using high sulfur spot market coal leads to the maximum number of

allowances used by the unit (AMAX). Assuming that the initial allocation to the unit

is smaller than the maximum possible allowance use, the unit will purchase additional

allowances to meet its allowance requirement. The excess demand for such a unit can be

seen in (2-36), where the excess demand will be positive.

Given that a unit preferred to use high sulfur coal before SO2 constraints, the unit's

cost savings from using allowances over switching fuels is (MCAf'" PA)(AAX AMIN),

which is the area "a+b" seen in Figure 2.8. The dark-shaded area (a) is the cost savings

for the generating unit from purchasing additional allowances instead of switching fuels.

The light-shaded area (b) is the cost savings from using the allocated allowances instead of

abating emissions and selling the extra allowances.

2.6.7.4 Effects of low sulfur coal contracts

Now consider how a low sulfur coal contract will impact a generating unit's allowance

excess demand correspondence in Figure 2.8, which is summarized in Proposition 3.

Proposition 3: Give the scrubber choice,









(i) For the range of allowance prices PA < MCA"'8, a low sulfur coal contract will
weakly decrease a unit's allowance excess demand.

(ii) For the range of allowance prices PA > MCA"'8, a low sulfur coal contract will
Sc Ss
decrease excess demand if < H.

(iii) For the range of allowance prices PA > MCA"', a low sulfur coal contract will
SC S
increase excess demand if > > .
H H
Proof of Proposition 3(i):

For allowance prices PA < MCA' a unit prefers to use all high sulfur coal, which

leads to the maximum allowance excess demand (AMAX). A low sulfur coal contract forces

some low sulfur coal use and decreases high sulfur coal use from Cs,'A to CAX, which

is the maximum amount of high sulfur spot market coal a unit will use given the low

sulfur coal contract constraint:

s,MAX js,MAX Di -c H, (248)
"ih > 1ih H- h H ,4h
ih ih

The decrease in maximum high sulfur coal use decreases a unit's maximum emissions from

EMAX to EAX.

SEMAX > EMAX (1 Zi i) () (S,CsMAX + S>C ) (2 49)


Lower emissions decrease the allowances used, which results in the maximum excess

demand with a low sulfur coal contract to be lower than the maximum excess demand

with no low sulfur coal contract:


SAMAX > i '" AX A7 (2-50)


Therefore, a high sulfur coal contract will increase excess demand for allowance prices

PA < MCAf".

Proof of Proposition 3(ii) and 3(iii):

For allowance prices PA > MCA"'8, a unit prefers to use all low sulfur coal, which

leads to the minimum allowance excess demand (A"IN). A low sulfur coal contract









decreases the maximum amount of low sulfur spot market coal use from Cs MAXt to
is,MAX

Cis,MAX > s,MAX Di c H (251)

SC Ss
If < :, the sulfur content per unit of heat content is lower for low sulfur contract

coal than low sulfur spot market coal and will decrease the minimum emissions from

EMIN to EIN:

SEMIN > EMIN ( )Qs (s,/1MAX +ScC) (2 52)
-^ ^i > 'i ( ,- ( ~ )i) ,., + (Sil) pc s( )


Lower emissions result in a decrease in a unit's minimum excess demand from AyAX to

AMAX in Figure 2.8(i):

SAIN > A' J EIN A7 (253)

Therefore, a low sulfur coal contract for coal with a lower sulfur to heat content ratio will

decrease excess demand for allowance prices PA > MCAj'".U
SC SS
If >HZ the sulfur content per unit of heat content is greater for low sulfur

contract coal than low sulfur spot market coal and will increase the minimum emissions
from EMIN to EMIN


= EMIN < EMIN (1- r)(m)( ,MAX + SC) (2-54)


Greater emissions result in an increase in a unit's minimum excess demand from AIN to

AIIN in Figure 2.8(ii):

SAmIN > A'''~ EN At (2-55)

Therefore, a high sulfur coal contract for coal with a higher sulfur to heat content ratio

will increase excess demand for allowance prices PA > MCAj'".E

A binding low sulfur coal contract that restricts a unit's ability to use allowance can

force a net buyer of allowances to decrease their allowance purchases from AMAX to AMAX

and abate more emissions than the generating unit would prefer as shown in Figure 2.8. If









the contract constraint is large enough it will shift A AX to the left of Ai = 0 and force

a unit to be a net seller. If the contract constraint forces the generating unit to use all

low sulfur coal, then the excess demand is a vertical line where the unit's only choice is to

purchase the minimum amount of allowances. This case may occur during Phase II if some

generating units purchased 101t' low sulfur coal through contracts.

In Figure 2.8, the net compliance costs can be seen in the shaded area (a) that

represents the costs of purchasing allowances to cover the unit's emissions above its

allowance allocation.

Now consider how a low sulfur coal contract will impact the excess demand

correspondence, compliance costs, and total costs. As has already been shown above

and can be see in Figure 2.8, a low sulfur coal contract will decrease the maximum excess

demand from A"AX to AAX and may increase or decrease the minimum excess demand

depending on the relative sulfur to heat content ratio of contract to spot market coal.

These shifts in a unit's excess demand may have two distinct effects on a unit's costs.

The first cost impact is the additional compliance costs to a unit from switching from high

sulfur spot market to low sulfur contract coal instead of purchasing allowances, which is

represented by area (c) in Figure 2.8. A unit must use some low sulfur coal, which results

in a unit abating additional emissions instead of purchasing allowances. Area (c) is the

difference between the costs of switching fuels to decrease emissions, area (b + c), and the

decrease in costs from allowance purchases, area (b). Net compliance costs increase from

(a+b) to (a + b +c).

The second cost impact results from different prices for low sulfur contract and spot

market coal, which is represented by area (d). Higher priced contract coal causes a unit

to have additional fuel costs to meeting electricity demand, which increases a unit's total

costs.

The graphical description of coal contract impacts on excess demand and costs

can be seen in the example defined in Table 2-4. Given the coal characteristics, demand,









allowance allocation, and allowance price, and low sulfur contract coal price of $1.80/mmBtu,

the minimum and maximum allowance use and MCA"'8 can be found if a unit faces no

low sulfur coal contract (C =- 0). For this example, low sulfur contract and spot market

coal are assumed to have the same characteristics, which isolates the effect that low sulfur

coal contracts have on excess demand for allowance prices PA < MCA<'.

The minimum allowance use based on the low sulfur coal characteristics is 11,400

tons while the maximum allowance use based on the high sulfur spot market coal

characteristics is 38,000 tons. The MCA'"8 is $270.68, which is higher than the allowance

price of $200.00. So a unit will purchase allowances to minimize its total costs. In doing

so, it will use use the entire 20,000 ton allowance allocation and purchase an additional

18,000 allowances to cover its maximum emissions level. Net compliance costs are the

additional costs from purchasing allowances, which is $3.6 million. Total costs are the total

cost of fuel purchases plus allowance purchases, which is $34.8 million.

Now consider the same unit with a low sulfur coal contract for 500,000 tons of

coal, which accounts for half the required heat input to meet demand. The minimum

allowance use remains at 11,400 tons, but the maximum allowance use decreases to

24,700 tons because of the coal contract. The MCA 'c is $451.13, which is much higher

than the allowance price of $200.00 and MCA'" of $270.68. The coal contract results

in net compliance costs (additional costs of allowance purchases and fuel switching) of

$4.54 million and total costs to meeting electricity demand (high sulfur spot market coal

purchases plus low sulfur contract coal purchases plus allowance purchases) of $38.14

million. Compliance costs increased by $940,000 because the unit could not use all high

sulfur coal. Total costs to the unit increased by $3.34 million because of the higher price

for the contract coal.

Another possibility is that the low sulfur contract coal could actually be cheaper than

low sulfur spot market coal, which is reasonable because the main reason for making a coal

contract agreement is for protection against future coal price fluctuations. This case can









be seen in Figure 2.8, where MCA"'8 < MCA'"8 and there is actually a cost savings to the

unit from using low sulfur contract coal over low sulfur spot market coal. The compliance

costs remain the same as in the previous example, area (a + b + c). However, the total

costs to the unit will decrease relative to not having coal under the contracted price. Area

(c + d) is additional costs to the unit for not being able to switch to low sulfur coal. Area

(d) is the cost savings of using lower priced high sulfur contract coal over high sulfur spot

market coal.

By making the same assumptions as in Example 1 except changing the price of low

sulfur contract coal to $1.50/mmBtu, we can solve for compliance costs and total costs to

a unit. MCA'c is $180.45. The change in compliance costs remain the same at $940,000

while the costs due to the lower priced coal actually decrease by $1.2 million.22 The

unit actually gains by lowering its total costs by $260,000 through the coal contract even

though it must increase its compliance costs.

2.6.7.5 Fuel switching versus allowance purchases when PA = MCA'8

In the knife-edge case a generating unit has no strict preference between purchasing

allowances and abating emissions because PA = MCA"'. The unit's excess demand may

be any value in the range [A -IN Ae, A AX- A(]. The generating unit has no preference

in compliance options because any combination of abatement and allowance purchases

result in the same compliance costs of area (a) in Figure 2.8.

A high sulfur coal contract will have the same impacts on the excess demand

correspondence when PA = MCA"' as in Section 5.7.2 where PA > MCA"'j. However,

the impacts on compliance costs and total costs will be different. The reasoning for this

is that the contract does not force a unit to use a more expensive compliance option. By

comparing Figure 2.8 to Figure 2.8, these differences can be derived. The shift in a unit's



22 For simplicity, the sulfur to heat content ratio is assumed to be equal for low sulfur
contract and spot market coal.









minimum excess demand has no impact on compliance costs. Total costs will still increase

by area (c) if the relative price of high sulfur contract coal is more expensive than high

sulfur spot market coal. The shift in maximum excess demand will still impact compliance

costs by area (f).

A low sulfur coal contract will have the same impacts on the excess demand

correspondence when PA = MCA'8 as in in Section 5.7.3 where PA < MCA"'8. However,

the impacts on compliance costs and total costs will be different. The reasoning for this

is that the contract does not force a unit to use a more expensive compliance option. By

comparing Figure 2.8 to Figure 2.8, these differences can be derived. The shift in a unit's

minimum excess demand has no impact on compliance costs. Total costs will still increase

by area (c) if the relative price of high sulfur contract coal is more expensive than high

sulfur spot market coal. The shift in maximum excess demand will not impact compliance

costs because the additional costs of abating emissions are offset by the decrease in

allowance purchases.

2.6.8 Generating Unit's Scrubber Installation Choice

It is not possible to completely characterize a generating unit's decision based on

MCA, and allowance price alone because of the non-convexities of scrubber installation.

In this section a unit's decisions with the option of installing a scrubber are examined, the

allowance price at which a unit will install a scrubber is derived, the change in the excess

demand correspondence shown, and the effect of coal contracts on the excess demand

examined.

2.6.8.1 When will a generating unit install a scrubber?

Let (Ch, C(, Ai) and (Chj, C, Ai) be the cost minimizing combination of spot coal

and allowances with and without a scrubber installed, respectively. A unit is indifferent to

installing a scrubber if the total costs with a scrubber installed are equal to the total costs

without a scrubber installed:


P. + Pfi + P, Ch + P,' = PA + PSh + P ,Q (2-56)









PS is the allowance price at which the unit is indifferent between installing a scrubber or

not. The amount of high sulfur and low sulfur contract coal will be the same both with

and without a scrubber and will cancel out, but the contract coal still affects the allowance

position.23

A generating unit's decisions will hinge on this allowance price. (2-56) can be used

to solve for PS, the minimum allowance price at which a generating unit will install a

scrubber:
pS > r. Zr Pih(vih ih) + Pil l ( Q81 Q8
PA + C )~8(C 0) (2 -57)
(A Ai)
A unit will prefer to install a scrubber at PA if the average costs of abatement from using

a scrubber is weakly less than the costs of purchasing an allowance.

2.6.8.2 Different marginal costs of abatement

The installation of a scrubber leads to an increase in the unit's marginal abatement

cost of switching from high sulfur spot market to low sulfur spot market coal relative to

the marginal abatement cost without a scrubber installed:
ps ps ps ps
il ih il ih
MCA '" iH ih H MCA'8 il ih (2-58)
(l- rj)(Tn)( ) (T)(|__- )
"Th 7T Hh 7T

Scrubber installation decreases the size of the denominator of MCA7'" by (ri)(m)(

$), which is due to the fact that only a fraction (based on the scrubber's reduction rate)

of the emissions reduction from switching fuels is realized.

2.6.8.3 Excess demand correspondence

A generating unit's excess demand correspondence becomes significantly more

complicated when a unit's scrubber installation choice is introduced into its decision-making

process. The excess demand correspondence is a combination of a unit's excess demand



23 See Appendix A for the derivation of this equation.









correspondences with and without a scrubber with a discontinuity representing the

discrete choice separating the two pieces.

A generating unit's excess demand correspondence can be derived from its optimal

compliance choices as the market allowance price changes. For allowance prices MCAj'" <

PA, a generating unit installs a scrubber because PS < PA, and switches fuels from high
sulfur spot market to low sulfur spot market coal because MCA'"8 < PA. So a generating

unit will have minimum excess demand when a scrubber is installed (AMIN), which has

already been derived in (2-36) given that zi 1.

For allowance prices PA < PA < MCA>', a generating unit installs a scrubber

because Pf < PA, and uses high sulfur coal because PA < MCA'A". So a generating

unit will have maximum excess demand when a scrubber is installed (AfMAX), which has

already been derived in (2-39) given zi 1.

For allowance prices MCAj'8 < PA < Pf, a generating unit does not install a scrubber

because PA < P, and switches fuels from high to low sulfur coal because MCA"'8 < PA.

So a generating unit will have minimum excess demand without a scrubber installed

(AMIN), which has already been derived in (2-36) given zi = 0.

For allowance prices 0 < PA < MCA"', a generating unit does not install a scrubber

because PA < Pf, and high sulfur coal because PA < MCA"'j. So a generating unit will

have maximum excess demand without installing a scrubber (AMAX), which has already

been derived in (2-39).

AAX if 0 < PA < MCA"' < P or 0 PA P< PX < MCA'
OAMAX _(1 )AMIN if (MCA = PA < P)V e [0,1]

A AIN if MCA>'" < PA< PA
Ai =S
AMAX if P < PA < MCAj'"
OASMAX (1- O)AMIN if MCA = PA V e [0,t1]

AfIN if MCA'" < PA









Using these four different excess demands for each allowance price range and the

knife-edge allowance prices, it is possible to mathematically derive the excess demand

correspondence.

The excess demand correspondence seen in Figure 2.8(i) includes a generating unit's

net allowance position under the four different allowance price ranges if (h < H ). If
1qh Ti
(H- > H ) a generating unit faces negative marginal abatement costs and will use only

low sulfur coal, which will result in a special case of only two price ranges where the only

choice a unit makes is whether to install a scrubber in Figure 2.8(ii).24

If a generating unit never prefers to switch fuels before installing a scrubber because

MCA'"8 > Ps, there is a special case in which the allowance price range MCAj'" <

PA < PAS does not exist for the excess demand correspondence. The excess demand

correspondence under this case can be seen in Figure 2.8.

2.6.9 Impact of Coal Contracts on Excess Demand Correspondence

Given the scrubber choice, a coal contract restricts the available coal use options,

which affects the excess demand correspondence as shown in Section 6.7. A contract

constraint also changes the allowance price at which a generating unit will optimally

install a scrubber, which alters the excess demand correspondence as well. Under Phase

I, a generating unit without a scrubber may prefer to use low sulfur coal, but when facing

a high sulfur coal contract constraint it would install a scrubber and prefer to use high

sulfur spot market coal. The opposite may occur under CAIR, where generating units may

face low sulfur coal contract constraints. A unit may wish to install a scrubber and use

all high sulfur coal, but the low sulfur contract constraint may result in no scrubber being

installed and allowance purchases occurring instead. The combination of these two effects

may change the excess demand correspondence for all allowance prices.



24 An example where > in the actual data is the delivered prices of coal to
generating units in the state of Wisconsin.
generating units in the state of Wisconsin.









First, it is important to generalize the indifference price at which a generating

unit will install a scrubber (Pf), which can be derived by setting a unit's costs when it

does not install a scrubber, which includes net allowance purchases (Ai) and fuel costs

(PijC + PiC,), to a unit's costs when it does install a scrubber, which includes net
allowance purchases (AMAX), fuel costs FCs s,MAX), and costs of a scrubber (P).

Assuming that high sulfur spot market coal is cheaper than low sulfur spot market coal, a

unit uses all high sulfur spot market coal if it installs a scrubber because MCA'"8 > PA. It

is uncertain if a unit will use high or low sulfur coal if it does not install a scrubber, and

will depend on the relationship between PA and MCA'".


Piz + PSASMAX + pih CMAX PAAi + P, i, + PiCi (2-59)


A unit that faces a coal contract will face a different indifference allowance price of

(PfA ) because parameters values on both sides of the equality will change. e could

be positive or negative depending on several conditions, including the type of coal under

contract. The new values that solve this equality are the contract constrained cost

minimizing parameter values. The fuel costs for the contract coal will be the same both

with and without a scrubber and will cancel out.

ASA Y -sMAX SP S
P. + (Pf AMA + PMh ( A s)AXA, + PsC + PC (2-60)

By solving for the constant P, in (2-59) and (2-60) and setting the two expressions equal

to each other, the sign and value of c can be derived.

2.6.9.1 Impact of a binding high sulfur coal contract

The impacts of a high sulfur coal contract on the two pieces of the excess demand

correspondence will be the same as in Section 6.7 where the scrubber choice is given

except there will be an additional impact on excess demand from the contract on the

allowance price at which a unit is indifferent to installing a scrubber.









There are two cases for which the value of c must be derived to determine the

contracts impact on the allowance indifference price, the first of which will have two

subcases. As will be shown for each of the cases, if ( > ), then c will be positive and

may decrease the allowance price at which a unit will prefer to install a scrubber.

In the first case, without a high sulfur coal contract, a unit prefers to use low sulfur

spot market coal without a scrubber and high sulfur coal with a scrubber. The two

subcases will be determined by the generating unit's characteristics and the size of the

contract constraint.

In the first subcase, both with or without a high sulfur coal contract, a unit prefers

to use low sulfur spot market coal if it does not install a scrubber and high sulfur spot

market coal it does install a scrubber. For this to hold, (MCA"'8 < PA < MCA7'8) and

(MCA'<" < PA < Pf).

If a unit that has no high sulfur contract coal (C =- 0), a unit uses the maximum

amount of high sulfur coal with a scrubber and the maximum amount of low sulfur coal

without a scrubber, and is indifferent to installing a scrubber at allowance price PS:

Pi + PASMAX I ps i,MAX S MIN + Pss,MAX (2 61)
4iz + P Ai + ii A i + il

(2-61) can be rearranged to find an expression for Pi:

SF = PS(A MIN ASMAX pS cs,MAX ps s,MAX (2 62)


A high sulfur coal contract will change the optimal values of the other parameters, which

will change the indifference allowance price by some value e:

S+ (PA e MAX + PM i PS ii} V psAY P iMh (2 ps MAX -63)
P. + (PjS )+ (P c)A;i p1 picc (2 63


(2-63) can be rearranged to find an expression for Pi:


(ptS (A' I ASMAX) + pssMAX s issMAX (2 64)
,^ ( ) \ A ~ ~) + i 'ilil ;ih ih.









Since Pi, is a constant, the two expressions for Pi, in (2-62) and (2-63) can be set equal

to solve for the value of e:

Ps AjIN AMIN + ASMAX ASMAX) + ps(s,MAX Cs,MAX) Ps sMAX c_ s,MAX
(A'MIN ASMAX)
(2-65)

Filling in for allowances and coal use parameters, it is possible to determine the sign

of C.





SMAX Di )((1 -A SMAX [c+, (D Cihy" ( (i)( e
H -h Ds C=hH, h Sih)(m A
A \~n( )(sih) (r)(1 r-)-A A [C\hSih+( H- Vi)h)] (rn)(1 r^) Ai
ih ih
s,MAX Di C ^s,MAX DI Chh As,MAX Di ^s,MAX DI ChH
Hih T Hs h Hi, H ils
iih "ih "i iii
By filling these expressions into (2-65), the expression for c can be simplified to parameters

for coal price, sulfur content, heat content, and scrubber capture rate.

0(C c S) (Tn r, h c Th ) +ch os' 1 os _s F D
SH (PsA(m) (rih h h I ) i) l ih
e = (2-66)
(AMIN ASMAX)

An interpretable form is derived by separating terms, multiplying though by (AIN

AMAX), and dividing through by m(| | ).
rS S( P Sh

v A S VnMAX) C hH sh SH PAS H H)
H H7 H 7 Hi

rs, ( ;sh SS
Ai i ih h S;7h ;7 + ( A ,
("V_ SMAX HcHh s S pS MCA') (2-67)
Th a 7T
From the initial assumption that a unit uses low sulfur coal when it does not install a

scrubber, it is known that Ps > MCAs'5. So if (; > ), then c > 0 and c increases as
ih Hih
the size of the high sulfur coal contract (C~h) increases. If (; < T), then the sign of c is
iuh ih
unknown.









An example reflective of Phase I data will help to explain which sign is most likely

for c. The example in Table 2-6 is based on data from the a unit that installed a scrubber

under Phase I.25 The first example will consider c given that a unit uses low sulfur

coal from the Southern Appalachian Mountains and high sulfur coal from the Northern

Appalachian Mountains. Southern Appalachian coal has a low average sulfur content

(0. 1.' .). In this example, high sulfur spot market coal is assumed to have both a lower

sulfur content and price than high sulfur contract coal. Given the assumptions in Table

2-6, a unit will prefer to use low sulfur coal if it does not install a scrubber because

MCA'8 = $244.26 and PA = -'0. If a scrubber is installed, a unit prefers to use

high sulfur spot market coal because the marginal cost of abatement increases above the

allowance price to MCA'"8 = $4, 885.20. The annualized scrubber costs are Pi = $15.886

million, which results in P' = $1,572.56. A high sulfur coal contract for 50'.- of coal use

results in a decrease in the indifference allowance price of $1, 210.61 to (PA c)

$382.00 (a 71.'- decrease in PA). Although a unit's compliance choices are not altered at

PA = -'0, the large decrease in c encourages scrubbing at much lower allowance prices
than without the coal contract. This subcase will hold for a contract constraint of less

than 73.5'. of coal use. This example shows that for many units, high sulfur coal contracts

would not have enough of an impact to result in scrubber installation in Phase I. Only

about 10' of units actually installed scrubbers to comply with Phase I, but these units

account for over half of total abatement by affected units.

In the second subcase, assume that without a high sulfur coal contract, a unit

prefers to use low sulfur spot market coal if it does not install a scrubber and high sulfur

spot market coal it does install a scrubber because (MCA''" < PA < MCAj'8) and

(MCA>'" < PA). However, with a high sulfur coal contract, a unit prefers to use high

sulfur spot market coal both with and without a scrubber because (PAF c < MCA"'j).



25 Gen. JM Gavin had 1011'- coal under contract.









If a unit that has no high sulfur contract coal (C~ = 0), a unit uses the maximum

amount of low sulfur coal if a scrubber is not installed, but uses the maximum amount of

high sulfur coal if a scrubber is installed. The unit is indifferent to installing a scrubber at

allowance price Pj:

z + PSMAX I ps sMAX p PAMIN psCMAX (2 68)
Piz+ Al i + Pis 7 h ACi + Vi [1-6)


(2-68) shows that the costs with and without a scrubber are equal for a given Pf, and can

be rearranged to find an expression for Pi:

SF, PS(AMIN- ASMAX) ps s, MAX ps sMAX (269)
A- ihih il'il

Since a unit uses low sulfur coal without a scrubber, a high sulfur coal contract will

change the coal use by a unit without a scrubber and change the indifference allowance

price by some value e:


PLi + (PS c)MAX + P ICDS AX + S (P i e i + MPAX Pich (2-70)
A 7,h (PA ihvh +lC1ih

(2-70) can be rearranged to find an expression for Pi,:


SPi = (PS )(Ail A AS MAX) (2-71)

The two expressions for Pi, in (2-69) and (2-71) can be set equal to solve for the

value of e:

P~(SMAX AMIN ASMAX SMAX) _ps s,MAX p s,MAX
Sih i (2 72)
SA(AMAX_ ASMAX)

By filling in for allowances and coal use, it is possible to determine the sign of e.

AMIN (D i(f)(m)- A iA ;'" (Di c A
n A/e;l Ah + Cc Sih)Tf -
Hisi Hsh ih

MAXih Di )() )- i MAX) (D ih- c H) ( )(- r_) A'
Hih ih









s,MAX Di s,MAX Di
ih "i

By filling into (2-72), the expression for c can be simplified to parameters for coal price,

sulfur content, heat content, and scrubber capture rate:


S A ) m ThH H) + Di ( D H )
(2-73)

The new form in (2-73) is easier to determine the sign of c because the sign of the

left-hand side is unchanged while simplifying the right-hand side. Now get the right-hand

side into a form that is interpretable by separating terms and dividing through by

Tn( $( h Lh
m(h 7H7)


V=>(A"A MAX) pS rrHc h h D H HT h (2-74
-- Ai ( I-P2D.- (2 74)
i (l i l(
ih T1 Hih if

The last two terms in (2-74) can be combined to get Di(P MCA"'8):

SMAX p Hcih Haih s i -A 75)
i i A riMACihX) ;H5ih SSh + D(PA MCA') (2 s5)
ih il

From our initial assumption that a unit uses all low sulfur spot market coal if it does not

install a scrubber, if it does not have a high sulfur coal contract, then PA > MCAj'". If

(; H> ), then the first term is non-negative, which makes c > 0. As in Case 1, an
increase in the size of the high sulfur coal contract (C. ) increases the value of e. However,

if (h < jh) then it is uncertain whether c is positive or negative.
ih Hih
Assuming the data in Table 2-6, this case will occur if the contract is greater than

73.5'. of coal use. For this case to occur, a high sulfur coal contract must result in a

unit preferring to use high sulfur coal without a scrubber installed when, without a

contract, it initially prefers to use low sulfur coal without a scrubber (PFA > MCA"'j and

PAS < MCA"'j). A unit must also prefer to use high sulfur coal with a scrubber both

with and without a high sulfur coal contract (PfA < P1s < MCA'8). The allowance









price at which a unit will initially install a scrubber is PA = $1, 592.61, which is much

higher than the assumed allowance price (PA = .-1-.00). As the size of a contract coal

increases from 50'- to 7".' of coal use, c increases from c = $1, 210.61 to c = $1, 349.82,

respectively. With a coal contract of 50' a unit still prefers to use low sulfur coal if it

does not install a scrubber because (PAS e) = $382.00 > MCA'8 = $244.26. However,

as the coal contract increases in size to 7,' a unit now prefers to use high sulfur coal if

it does not install a scrubber because (Ps e) = $242.79 < MCA' = $244.26. Also, a

unit will now install a scrubber because (PAS e < PA), which may have a large impact on

compliance costs.

In the third case, assume that a unit, both with and without a high sulfur coal

contract, prefers to use high sulfur coal both with and without a scrubber because

(PA < MCA"') and (PF < P < MCA'"). Given that a unit that has no high sulfur

contract coal (Ch = 0), a unit is indifferent to installing a scrubber at allowance price PAS:

P + PS MAX sMAX MAX + ps sMAX AX + P AX(2-76)
PAz i + FihAih A' i ihih (2

(2-76) can be rearranged to find an expression for Pi, where the only change in costs is

the change in a unit's net allowance position:


SP, P1A(AMAX ASMAX) (2-77)

A high sulfur coal contract will change the indifference allowance price by some value

c because it alters the costs from net allowance purchases and fuel costs:


P, + (P )nSMAX + P;sMA + P (PS )A" + Ps~M AX + Pit (2 78)

(2-78) can be rearranged to find an expression for Pi,:


SPi = (P e) (A MAX) (2-79)









The two expressions for Piz in (2-77) and (2-79) can be set equal to solve for the

value of e:
ps(AMAX AMAX + ASMAX_ ASMAX)
( ( i (2-80)
(AMAX ASMAX)

Filling in for allowances and coal use, it is possible to determine the sign of e.

AMAX D ( ) (S)( )- A '" (D- C~hHhh Si + Cc S~h) (m) Ae
iil H iH8 ihih)h i

SMAX sDi ))(1- S-MAX Di C hHS e+ c ()(I A
Ai [ ih)(T ) (t ri) -A' Ah %C \SQ(n)(tlrj)- A
i Hsh i Hsh ih i
ih ih
By filling into (2-80), the expression for e can be simplified to parameters for coal price,

sulfur content, heat content, and scrubber capture rate:


= (A" ASMAX) = P SmrTi, H0H( Sih ih) (2-81)
ih ih

If high sulfur contract coal has a weakly higher sulfur to heat content ratio than high

sulfur spot market coal (- > ), then e > 0 and as the amount of coal under contract
Tih ~- ih
(C h) increases, the size of c increases. If ( < ), then e < 0.
Hih ih
Under the initial assumptions, PAS < MCA"'8. The example in Table 2-7 uses data

representative of a unit that installed a scrubber under Phase I.26 A unit facing these coal

characteristics prefers to use high sulfur coal with or without a scrubber installed because

MCA S'" = $1,137.74 > PA= 250.00 and MCA'" = $1,137.74 > PA = 460.80. In this

case, e is much smaller than in the previous examples at e = $44.66 because a unit does

not prefer to use low sulfur coal without a scrubber. There are no additional compliance

costs from not being able to switch from high to low sulfur coal. Although the size of c is

smaller than in other examples, the initial size of P' is much smaller than in the previous

two cases. So a smaller value of c may still alter a unit's compliance choices.



26 BL England had 1 'I. of coal under contract.









Based on the above two cases, the sign of epsilon can be summarized in the following

Proposition 4.

Proposition 4: Given a high sulfur coal contract,

(i) > 0 if (h > s|).
ih ih

(ii) The sign of c is unknown if (- < ).
ih ih "
Given the impact a high sulfur coal contract has on excess demand defined in

Proposition 2 and the sign of c defined in Proposition 4, the impact of a high sulfur coal

contract is derived in Proposition 5(a) and 5(b).
SC S
Proposition 5(a): Assuming (- > ) and allowing for the scrubber choice

(i) For the range of allowance prices PA > MCA"', a high sulfur coal contract will
,. .i,, increase a unit's excess demand.

(ii) For the range of allowance prices PAS < PA < MCA'S8, a high sulfur coal contract
will ,.. r. ;, increase excess demand.

(iii) For the range of allowance prices (PAS ) < PA < PS, a high sulfur coal contract
will ., tl. /; decrease excess demand if A^IN > A;MAX and 'r.. I;, increase excess
demand if AMIN < AMAX

(iv) For the range of allowance prices MCA'"8 < PA < (PAS e), a high sulfur coal
contract will d, A,/; increase a unit's excess demand.

(v) For the range of allowance prices 0 < PA < MCA"', a high sulfur coal contract will
1. .li, increase a unit's excess demand.

Proof of Proposition 5(a):

(i) When a unit faces PA > MCAA'j, a unit prefers to install a scrubber and use all low
sulfur coal. From Proposition 2(i), a high sulfur coal contract increases the minimum
emissions level, which will weakly increase a unit's allowance excess demand.

(ii) When a unit faces PAS < PA < MCA7'8, a unit prefers to install a scrubber and use
all high sulfur coal. From Proposition 2(iii), given ( > ), a high sulfur coal
ffih Hih
contract increases the maximum emissions level, which will weakly increase a unit's
allowance excess demand.

(iii) From Proposition 4(i), when a unit faces (PA c) < PA < PS, a high sulfur
coal contract decreases a unit's indifference allowance price of installing a scrubber









below the allowance price by c > 0, which leads to a unit installing a scrubber
where it initially would not and decreases a unit's emissions and a unit's excess
demand. From Proposition 2(iii), given the scrubber choice and (- > t), a high
ih Hih
sulfur coal contract will weakly increase a unit's emissions and excess demand. If
A"IN > A~MAX, the combined net effect of the countering shifts is weakly negative
and weakly decreases excess demand. If A"IN < AMAX, the combined net effect is
weakly positive and weakly increases excess demand.

(iv) When a unit faces (S > h), a unit does not install a scrubber and prefers to use
Hih ih
low sulfur coal. From Proposition 2(i), a high sulfur coal contract increases a unit's
minimum emissions level and excess demand.

(v) When a unit faces 0 < PA < MCA'8 a unit does not install a scrubber and prefers
to use high sulfur coal. From Proposition 2(iii), given ( > ), a high sulfur coal
Hffh H- h
contract increases a unit's maximum emissions level and excess demand.E

Proposition 5(a) is shown graphically in Figure 2.8(i). Proposition 5(b) expresses the

impact a high sulfur coal contract will have on a unit's excess demand correspondence by

assuming that e > 0.

Proposition 5(b): Assuming (> < ), e > 0, and allowing for the scrubber choice

(i) For the range of allowance prices PA > MCA"'8, a high sulfur coal contract will
,. .i;, increase a unit's excess demand.

(ii) For the range of allowance prices PA < PA < MCA7' a high sulfur coal contract
will ;, i... ,/; decrease excess demand.

(iii) For the range of allowance prices (PAS e) < PA < PS, a high sulfur coal contract
will ; i..i. ,; decrease excess demand.

(iv) For the range of allowance prices MCAj'" < PA < (PAS c), a high sulfur coal
contract will ,. A,/; increase a unit's excess demand.

(v) For the range of allowance prices 0 < PA < MCA"', a high sulfur coal contract will
., l.; decrease excess demand.

Proof of Proposition 5(b):

(i) When a unit faces PA > MCA'"8, a unit prefers to install a scrubber and use all low
sulfur coal. From Proposition 2(i), a high sulfur coal contract increases the minimum
emissions level, which will weakly increase a unit's allowance excess demand.









(ii) When a unit faces P < PA < MCA7'8, a unit prefers to install a scrubber and use
all high sulfur coal. From Proposition 2(ii), given (, < ), a high sulfur coal
contract decreases the maximum emissions level, which will weakly decrease a unit's
allowance excess demand.

(iii) If c > 0, when a unit faces (PAS ) < PA < PA, a high sulfur coal contract decreases
a unit's indifference allowance price of installing a scrubber below the allowance
price, which leads to a unit installing a scrubber where it initially would not and
decreases a unit's emissions and a unit's excess demand. From Proposition 2(ii),
Given the scrubber choice and ( < ), a high sulfur coal contract will weakly
decrease a unit's emissions and excess demand. The combined net effect is weakly
negative and weakly decreases excess demand.

(iv) From Proposition 2(i), when a unit faces MCA"'8 < PA < (PA e), a unit does
not install a scrubber and prefers to use low sulfur coal. A high sulfur coal contract
increases a unit's minimum emissions level and excess demand.

(v) From Proposition 2(ii), when a unit faces 0 < PA < MCA'S a unit does not install
a scrubber and prefers to use high sulfur coal. Given (>h < h ), a high sulfur coal
Hih i- Hih
contract decreases a unit's maximum emissions level and excess demand.E

Proposition 5(b) is shown graphically in Figure 2.8(ii).

There are conditions under which some of these allowance price ranges do not exist.

For example, PA' < MCA'"8 in the third case described above. So there is no price

range (MCA'", PAS) in Figure 2.8. However, Propositions 5(a) and 5(b) still hold for the

price ranges that do exist. In Case 2, c is large enough to shift the allowance price from

PA > MCA"'8 to (PA c) < MCA"'j and causes the visual representation of the excess

demand correspondence to shift from Figure 2.8 to 2.8.

2.6.9.2 Impact of a binding low sulfur coal contract

Proposition 5 can be proven using the same approach that was used to determine the

sign of c with a high sulfur coal contract is used to show that c is alv--, less than or equal

to zero, and may increase the allowance price at which a unit is indifferent to installing a

scrubber. Once again there will be three case under consideration.

In the first case, assume that both with and without a low sulfur coal contract, a unit

prefers to use low sulfur spot market coal if it does not install a scrubber and high sulfur









spot market coal if it does install a scrubber because (MCA''8 < PA < MCA'8) and

(MCAf'" < PA).

If a unit has no low sulfur contract coal (C^i = 0), a unit uses the maximum amount

of high sulfur coal with a scrubber and the maximum amount of low sulfur coal without a

scrubber, and is indifferent to installing a scrubber at allowance price PS:


P + PSASMAX + Ps WMAX
Piz + PAsi + 7ihih


PSAMIN +PirsCs,MAX
Ai + ilil


(2-82)


(2-82) can be rearranged to find an expression for Pi,:


z = p M IN ASMAX) P h sMAX C ssMAX
P?, iz TAs (Ai A 7,h + ~, Ii i C IS,


(2-83)


A low sulfur coal contract will change a unit's coal use and allowance purchases, which

changes the indifference allowance price by some value e:

P + (P ) SMAX pi s ^s,MAX c _c /S i s i s ,MAX + cC (284)
(2z (P ih ih +rearra d to find an exprsion + (2-4)

(2-84) can be rearranged to find an expression for Pi,:


ASMAX) + P^sls,MAX _s is,MAX
Ai ) + 7, ~ ,h C1


(2-85)


The two expressions for Pi, in (2-83) and (2-85) can be set equal to solve for the value of


PAs(A"IN AmIN + AMAX


(AMIN ASMAX)
(2-86)


Filling in for allowances and coal use, it is possible to determine the sign of e.

AIN (D ( A D Cc," H ) (S)m) A
nil= j( l


AiDMAX (Di H i ,)(S)+sC s (m)(1- r)- A
H,)+


A X ( T ) (Sh) (T,) (t- ri)- A


=> C


= > z = (PA 0) (i" '










C8MAX C, MAX D, ?H
s,MAX D_ i s,MAX Di CizHH z Cs,MAX Di Cs,MAX D, -C H-
h "i ih ii ilH

By filling these expressions into (2-86), the expression for c can be simplified to parameters

for coal price, sulfur content, heat content, and scrubber capture rate.

C, H(P D(m [(r h h () H %S]H
[[ HH Hl ] HH \(2 87)
(AMIN ASMAX)

A more interpretable expression is derived by multiplying through by ((A" AfMAX))

and dividing through by m(h H ).

ihih



S OS
((H, WA i) $- (PA MCAn S' (289)
ih TI
From the initial assumption that a unit uses low sulfur coal when it does not install a

scrubber, it is known that (PS > MCA"'). Since (> < h ), then e < 0 and its
il ih
magnitude increases as the size of the low sulfur coal contract (Ci,) increases.

A binding low sulfur coal contract is more likely to impact units under CAIR. An

example using recent data reflective of the coal availability and delivered prices for a

unit in Alabama in 2000 will help to show e < 0.27 Under the assumptions, a unit

will prefer to switch fuels to abate emissions if it does not install a scrubber because

MCAs's = -'11.40, which is much lower than the assumed allowance price PA $700.00.

If a scrubber is installed, a unit prefers to use high sulfur spot market coal because the

marginal cost of abatement is much greater than the allowance price (MCA'"8 = $11, 228).

A unit will not install a scrubber because the allowance price at which a unit is indifferent

to installing a scrubber (PA = $731.46) is higher than PA. A low sulfur coal contract



27 The data can be found in Table 15.A of the 2000 Electric Power Annual Volume II.









for 5(1 of coal use results in e = -$42.00, which increases the indifference price to

(PA c) = $773.46. The example shows that some units will not be impacted by a

low sulfur coal contract because the increase in the indifference price does not alter the

scrubber choice.

In the second case, assume that without a low sulfur coal contract, a unit prefers

to use high sulfur spot market coal both if it does or does not install a scrubber because

(Pf < MCA"'8). However, with a low sulfur coal contract, a unit prefers to use low sulfur

spot market coal if it does not install a scrubber and high sulfur spot market coal if it

does install a scrubber because (MCA'" < PA e < MCA9).

If a unit has no low sulfur contract coal (Ci = 0), a unit uses the maximum amount

of high sulfur coal both with and without a scrubber, and the unit is indifferent to

installing a scrubber at allowance price PAS:

PLPS + SMAX + ps sMAX MS PAMAX + Ps P s,MAX (2 90)
?z + A'i C ihvih A' i ihih (2

(2-90) shows that the costs with and without a scrubber are equal for a given PA, and can

be rearranged to find an expression for Pi,:


Pz Ps(AAX ASMAX) (2 91)


Since a unit uses high sulfur coal both with and without a scrubber, a low sulfur coal

contract will change the coal use by a unit both with and without a scrubber and change

the indifference allowance price by some value e:


P + (P ) AMAX s sMAX pc PS VpsMAX +1ii (2 92)


(2-92) can be rearranged to find an expression for P,:


p i (PAj (A i I V -A MAX) + p MAX + FPsi (2-93)









The two expressions for PiF in (2-91) and (2-93) can be set equal to solve for the

value of e:

P S((AMIN AMAX + A7MAX _SMAX )+Ps SMAX ps sMAX
A i ~ t +A i ) ih 1 (2-94)
(AMIN AMAX)

By filling in for allowances and coal use, it is possible to determine the sign of e.


AfAX ( (Hs)(mn) -A AA D sH S+CS" S) n- An
--C

ASMAX ( (Sh)()(1- -A MAX D( c iHhAS+ A A S,rh)(m)(-ri) A7
ih Iihh
sMAX Di CzH, sMAX D, i C
^l -s sMAX
Hiil HI Hih
By filling into (2-94), the expression for e can be simplified to parameters for coal price,

sulfur content, heat content, and scrubber capture rate:


MA4 Aih MAX) H+ ri( -4 _H Sih Hc Jil c )


Di[mPf'( Si Si) (Pi f P ) (2-95)
Hfi Hi8 Hi8 HtJ
An interpretable form is derived by multiplying through by (AjIN AMAX) and dividing

through by mQ(, il ) and combining like terms:
Hih i
i ih i ih
Ais S, S, c (2 96)
e("1 MAX)i i + (DO- Hi C) PA h H (2-96)c
(Hh i H h 7i

( sa sh
( e '- 1AfMA) '- P r i + (D H }ICI)(PA MCA"'8) (2-97)
ih HT
From our initial assumption that a unit uses all high sulfur spot market coal if it does

not install a scrubber if it does not have a high sulfur coal contract, then PAS < MCA"'8.

The total amount of heat content from the contract coal (HicCic) is weakly less than the

total heat content needed to meet demand (Di). So the second term is weakly negative.
Meanwhile, the first term is negative because which means
Meanwhile, the first term is negative because (- < ) and ($ > ), which means
ff"l Tih T' h Tl' 1









e < 0 and an increase in the size of the high sulfur coal contract (C h) increases the

magnitude of e.

The second example in Table 2-8 uses data that reflects this case. Without a coal

contract, PA = -".-' :", which is less than MCA"'" -<.")7.90 and PA = $700.00, and

a unit will use high sulfur coal both with and without a scrubber installed. In this case,

a unit will install a scrubber because PA < PA = $700.00. Now consider a low sulfur

coal contract for 50'. of all coal use, which results in c = :".-' )9 and will increase the

indifference price above both MCA'" and PA to (PA c) = $873.34. With the low sulfur

coal contract, a unit will now not install a scrubber and prefers to use low sulfur spot

market coal.

In the third case, assume that a unit, both with and without a low sulfur coal

contract, prefers to use high sulfur coal with and without a scrubber because PA <

(Pf e) < MCA'8. Given that a unit has no low sulfur contract coal (C = 0), a unit is

indifferent to installing a scrubber at allowance price PS:


S+ PFAS SMAX I pscs,MAX rAS AMAX r+ s Cs,MAX (2 9)

(3-26) can be rearranged to find an expression for Pi, where the only change in costs are

the price of a scrubber and the change in a unit's net allowance position. PA is equal to

the average cost of reducing a unit of emissions from scrubber installation:

SP, = Ps(A AX AfMAX) (2-99)

A low sulfur coal contract will change the indifference allowance price by some value c

because it alters the costs from net allowance purchases and fuel costs:


P. + (PA c)MAX + Pish sAX+ PC (PS )A + PishMA P+c? (2-100)

(2-100) can be rearranged to find an expression for Pi,:


SP = (PS A)(A' MAX) (2-101)









The two expressions for PiF in (2-99) and (2-101) can be set equal to solve for the

value of e:
P~(AMAX AMAX + ASMAX AMAX)
( e = '- i i' (2-t10 2)
(AMAX ASMAX)

Filling in for allowances and coal use, it is possible to determine the sign of e.


AMAX D ) (Sih) () AD (DA-- eHs Sih + Sii) () A~
Hih ih


SMAX = )()(1-)-A MAX in the size of the coal contract () (-increases
iih iih
By filling into (2 102), the expression for e can be simplified to parameters for coal price,

sulfur content, heat content, and scrubber capture rate.


C e(A4" AiSMAX) = STnihHih ) (2103)


Since ( < t e < 0 and an increase in the size of the coal contract (i) increases

the magnitude of e.

The third example in Table 2-8 uses data reflective of delivered costs and coal

characteristics for a unit in Florida. A unit initially prefers to use high sulfur coal both

with and without a scrubber because (PA = 'i111.00) < (MCA"' = $3, 887.56). A unit will

prefer to install a scrubber in this example because the indifferent price is PS 1

A low sulfur coal contract for 50'. of coal use will increase the indifference price to

(Pjs e) = ".1 12.42, which will result in a unit not installing a scrubber.
Based on the above three cases, the sign of epsilon can be summarized in Proposition

6.

Proposition 6: Given a low sulfur coal contract, e < 0.

Given Proposition 3 and Proposition 6, the impact of a low sulfur coal contract is

derived in Proposition 7(a) and 7(b).
Proposition 7(a): Assuming ) and allowing for the scrubber choice...S
Proposition 7(a): Assuming (-> >-) and allowing for the scrubber choice...









(i) For the range of allowance prices PA > MCA'"8, a low sulfur coal contract will
,, ., /l.; increase excess demand.

(ii) For the range of allowance prices (Pf e) < PA < MCA'8 a low sulfur coal contract
will ;, '.it l,; decrease excess demand.

(iii) For the range of allowance prices PA' < PA < (PF e), a low sulfur coal contract will
,, .. I; increase excess demand.

(iv) For the range of allowance prices MCA"'8 < PA < PFA, a low sulfur coal contract will
.i,;, increase excess demand.

(v) For the range of allowance prices 0 < PA < MCA"', a low sulfur coal contract will
., l.; decrease excess demand.

Proof of Proposition 7(a):

(i) When a unit faces PA > MCA'A", a unit prefers to install a scrubber and use all
low sulfur coal. From Proposition 3(iii), given S > S a low sulfur coal contract
increases the minimum emissions level, which will weakly increase a unit's allowance
excess demand.

(ii) When a unit faces (Pf c) < PA < MCA' ", a unit prefers to install a scrubber and
use all high sulfur coal. From Proposition 3(i), a low sulfur coal contract decreases
the maximum emissions level, which will weakly decrease a unit's allowance excess
demand.

(iii) From Proposition 6, when a unit faces PA < PA < (PA e), a low sulfur coal
contract increases a unit's indifference allowance price of installing a scrubber above
the allowance price, which leads a unit to not install a scrubber where it initially
would have done so and increases a unit's emissions and a unit's excess demand.
SC S
From Proposition 3(iii), given the scrubber choice and S > 7 a low sulfur coal
contract will weakly increase a unit's emissions and excess demand. The combined
net effect is weakly positive and weakly increases excess demand.

(iv) When a unit faces MCAA'j < PA < Pf, a unit does not install a scrubber and prefers
to use low sulfur coal. From Proposition 3(iii), given > a low sulfur coal
contract increases a unit's minimum emissions level and excess demand.

(v) When a unit faces 0 < PA < MCA"'8, a unit does not install a scrubber and prefers
to use high sulfur coal. From Proposition 3(i), a low sulfur coal contract decreases a
unit's maximum emissions level and excess demand.E

Proposition 7(a) is shown graphically in Figure 2.8(i).
Proposition 7(b): Assuming that ( < and allowing for the scrubber choice...
Proposition 7(b): Assuming that (- < H) and allowing for the scrubber choice...









(i) For the range of allowance prices PA > MCA'"8, a low sulfur coal contract will
,, ., l.I; decrease excess demand.

(ii) For the range of allowance prices (Ps c) < PA < MCA'8 a low sulfur coal contract
will ;, '.it l,; decrease excess demand.

(iii) For the range of allowance prices PAs < PA < (PS e), a low sulfur coal contract
will increase excess demand ASMAX < AMIN and a ., l/; decrease excess demand if
ASMAX > AMIN

(iv) For the range of allowance prices MCAj'" < PA < PAS, a low sulfur coal contract will
a, '. I, decrease excess demand.

(v) For the range of allowance prices 0 < PA < MCA"', a low sulfur coal contract will
a, '. I, decrease excess demand.

Proof of Proposition 7(b):

(i) When a unit faces PA > MCA'8, a unit prefers to install a scrubber and use all
SC SS
low sulfur coal. From Proposition 3(ii), given S < T a low sulfur coal contract
decreases the minimum emissions level, which will weakly decrease a unit's allowance
excess demand.

(ii) When a unit faces (Ps c) < PA < MCAA'j, a unit prefers to install a scrubber and
use all high sulfur coal. From Proposition 3(i), a low sulfur coal contract decreases
the maximum emissions level, which will weakly decrease a unit's allowance excess
demand.

(iii) From Proposition 6, when a unit faces PS < PA < (PS e), a low sulfur coal
contract increases a unit's indifference allowance price of installing a scrubber
above the allowance price, which leads a unit to not install a scrubber where it
initially would have done so and increases a unit's emissions and a unit's excess
SC SS
demand. From Proposition 3(ii), given the scrubber choice and < a high
sulfur coal contract will weakly decrease a unit's emissions and excess demand. If
AMIN > AiMAX, the combined net effect of the countering shifts is weakly positive
and weakly increases excess demand. If AIN < AMAX, the combined net effect is
weakly negative and weakly decreases excess demand.

(iv) When a unit faces MCAO'" < PA < PA a unit does not install a scrubber and prefers
Sc SS
to use low sulfur coal. From Proposition 3(ii), given < HS, a low sulfur coal
contract decreases a unit's minimum emissions level and excess demand.

(v) When a unit faces 0 < PA < MCA"', a unit does not install a scrubber and prefers
to use high sulfur coal. From Proposition 3(i), a low sulfur coal contract decreases a
unit's maximum emissions level and excess demand.E









Proposition 7(b) is shown graphically in Figure 2.8(ii). As with a high sulfur contract,

some of the price ranges may not exist for a particular case. However, the remaining parts

of the propositions hold.

2.7 Possible Implications on the Allowance Market and Industry Compliance
Costs

Under Phase I of Title IV, there were many generating units facing high sulfur

coal contracts for at least a fraction of their total coal use. If a binding high sulfur coal

contract leads a unit to choose a suboptimal compliance choice, such as purchasing

additional permits or installing a scrubber instead of switching fuels, and results in

weakly higher compliance costs. A unit's suboptimal choices not only increases a unit's

compliance costs, but should also increase compliance costs for the industry as a whole.

As has been show in several examples, high sulfur coal contracts for a large fraction

(50-101i i.) of coal use can greatly reduce a unit's "indifference price" to installing a

scrubber. Some units under Phase I initially appear to have installed a scrubber when

it was not a unit's optimal compliance option, increasing a unit's compliance costs.

Additional scrubber installations should have resulted in greater emissions reduction,

which should simultaneously lower demand and increase supply of allowances as a unit

switches from a net demander to a net seller. In doing so, the equilibrium allowance

market price should be driven lower, which may explain the lower than expected allowance

prices realized during Phase I. Even though the allowance market price was lower than

expected, the inefficient unit compliance choices resulted in higher than expected total

industry compliance costs.

Under future CAIR regulation, a unit's compliance options may be restricted by

low sulfur coal contracts agreed upon during the 1990s to meet Title IV emissions

requirements. A unit may find installing a scrubber and using high sulfur coal to be it

best compliance option. However, low sulfur coal contracts may lead a unit to choose a

suboptimal compliance choice, such as switching fuels or installing a scrubber while using









low sulfur coal. Suboptimal compliance decisions will lead to higher compliance costs at

the unit-level and may lead to higher total industry compliance costs.

As has been show in several examples, low sulfur coal contracts for a large fraction

(50-101t i') of coal use can greatly increase a unit's "indifference price" to installing a

scrubber. Some units under CAIR may not install a scrubber when it is optimal for them

to do so, increasing a unit's compliance costs. Fewer scrubber installations would result

in greater emissions, which should simultaneously increase demand and decrease supply

of allowances as a unit would be a net demander instead of a net seller, and the allowance

market price should be driven higher than would be expected. In this case, a higher than

expected allowance market price would occur with higher than expected total industry

compliance costs.

2.8 Conclusions

This paper analytically derives the impacts that long-term fuel contract constraints

may have on a generating unit's compliance choices and compliance costs in meeting Sa2

emissions restrictions. There are five important results from this analysis.

First, given the scrubber choice, it is easy to determine how a coal contract will

impact a unit's excess demand for allowances. A high sulfur coal contract will weakly

increase a unit's excess demand while a low sulfur coal contract will weakly decrease a

unit's excess demand.

Second, some coal contracts may actually decrease a unit's total costs relative to

using only spot market coal while increasing a unit's compliance costs if a coal contract

allows a unit to lock in a lower price for a given type of coal. The coal contract will

restrict compliance choices, which may result in higher compliance costs. If the fuel cost

savings is greater than the increase in a unit's compliance costs, then the coal contract

lowers a unit's total costs. Since a unit only cares about its total costs, a unit's compliance

decisions do not necessarily minimize a unit's compliance costs.









Third, under certain conditions a unit's compliance costs will increase when a coal

contract results in a suboptimal combination of spot market coal use, allowance purchases,

and scrubber installation. A suboptimal combination may result from two situations:

(1) a coal contract alters a unit's compliance choice or (2) the compliance choice does

not change, but the coal under contract has a higher sulfur to heat content ratio than

the same type of coal available in the spot market, which increases a unit's allowance

purchases.

Fourth, coal contract constraints change the allowance price at which a unit will

prefer to install a scrubber. In the case of Phase I, a high sulfur coal contract may increase

a unit's "indifference price", which creates a greater incentive for a unit to scrub and

sell its extra allowances. This result may explain why some scrubbers were installed at

sub-optimal units while the allowance market price was much lower than expected during

Phase I. The opposite may occur under CAIR, where a low sulfur coal contract may

increase a unit's "indifference price" and lower the incentive for a unit to install a scrubber

even if it would be the optimal compliance choice. In either case, a suboptimal compliance

choice will be made and a unit's compliance costs will weakly increase.

Fifth, there is certainty how a coal contract will impact a unit's excess demand

for allowances even when the scrubber choice is considered for most allowance price

ranges. However, due to the discrete scrubber choice and the change in the "indifference

price" due to a coal contract, it is uncertain how a coal contract will alter a unit's excess

demand if the allowance market price falls in one particular price range. A high sulfur

coal contract will shift excess demand as derived in Proposition 2 except if the allowance

market price falls in the price range (P' e, P- ) and S >Sh If the allowance market

price falls in this range, there are two countering effects on excess demand, the decrease in

excess demand resulting from the scrubber installation and the increase in excess demand

from the higher sulfur content of high sulfur contract coal relative to high sulfur spot

market coal. A low sulfur coal contract will shift excess demand as derived in Proposition









3 except if the allowance market price falls in the price range (Ps, Ps e) and < .

If the allowance market price falls in this range, there are two countering effects on excess

demand, the increase in excess demand resulting from no scrubber installation and the

decrease in excess demand from the lower sulfur content of low sulfur contract coal relative

to low sulfur spot market coal.











Table 2-2. High Sulfur Coal Contract: Assumptions
Coal Type Price/mmBtu Hf Price/Ton
cQ $1.60 24 $38.40
Ch $1.30 24 $31.20
Ch (Ex. 1) $1.50 24 -:1, 10
Ch (Ex. 2) $1.20 24 -.- 0O

PA $300.00
A' 20,000 tons
Di 24,000,000 mmBtu


Table 2-3. High Sulfur Coal Contract: Results
Costs Compliance Total Costs
Costs (Ex. 1) (Ex. 1)
Unconstrained $4.62 million -2 million
Constrained $5.01 million $38.61 million
CI' ii,';, $390,000 $2.79 million


Allowance Use (Tons)
Minimum 11,400 tons
Maximum 38,000 tons
Constrained Min. 24,700 tons


Compliance
Costs (Ex. 2)
$4.62 million
$5.01 million
$390,000

MCA,
MCAf's
MCAf" (Ex. 1)
MCAf'" (Ex. 2)


Total Costs
(Ex. 2)
-< ". million
S;". ill million
-$810,000


$270.68
$90.23
- 1 ,1g.90


Table 2-4. Low Sulfur Coal Contract Examples: Assumptions
Coal Type Price/mmBtu HI Price/Ton SY
CQ $1.60 24 $38.40 0..',
Ch $1.30 24 $31.20 2.0'C
cQ (Ex. 1) $1.80 24 ;.20 0..'
CQ (Ex. 2) $1.50 24 ., 1)0 0.,' ,


$200.00
20,000 tons
24,000,000 mmBtu


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$200.00 JO

1....01
Jan-95 Aug-96 Apr-98 Dec-99 Jul-01 Mar-03 Nov-04 Jul-06


Figure 2-1. The SO2 Allowance Price. Data was given to me by Dallas Burtraw of
Resources for the Future


Excess Demand ColTespondence (i)


MCA049


o .MAX


AMW


NET SELLER NET BUYER


COMPLIANCE COST SAVINGS (ii


1$ 0ii


EXTRA
ALLOWANCE
SALES


I
FEWER
ALLOWANCE
PURCHASES


NETSELLER NETBUYER
NET SELLER NET BUYER


Figure 2-2. Excess Demand Correspondence and Compliance Cost Savings from Fuel
Switching Over Allowance Purchasing

























.-


0 j .. .- -1 -ri
4!^


NET SELLER NET BUYER


(ii)


I *


-L _______________ 4--I--b


MIN 1 VL
4 4


M4X-I


NET SELLER NET BUYER


Figure 2-3. High Sulfur Contract: Shift in Minimum Excess Demand


NET REVENUE FROM
ALLOWANCE SALES




rr


.1,^^~\\\\ ,\\^


.i1-


COMPLIANCE COSTS
FROM SWITCHING FUELS


MAX
4i


Figure 2-4. No Contract: Compliance Costs


MCA,
DIFFERENCE IN
FUEL COST
DUE TO
CONTRACT
AMN -uMI


COMPLIANCE COSTS
FROM FUEL SWITCHING ;Mc,.S ,
COMPLIANCE
COST
SAVINGS 4,, -
FROM LOWER
CONTRACT DIFFERENCEIN

CONTRACT
A0 .M 4 AW
;r1 -1" -1 1


COMPLIANCE COSTS
ROM FUE SWITCHING
COMPLIANCE
IR THINGS
COST FROM
HIGHER
CONTRACT
PRICE


MAX A_


Figure 2-5. High Sulfur Contract: Compliance and Total Costs


(i)


P .--- ---- ------------


q~iN"" .i


P

CA'


MCa-S

MaQ S -


!


JAI
............................
. . . . . . . . .
..................................
1 1 . . . . . . . . .
................ ...................
................. .................
.............................. .... ... .....
. . . . . . .
A
................
.............
................
... 1.0













DIFFERENT E IN COMPLIANCE (i
COSTS E TO CONTRACT

ALLOWANCE SALES
COMPLIANCE COSTS
FROM FUEL SWITCHING


\
DIFFERENCE IN
FUEL COSTS DUE
TO CONTRACT



4Mr


MC42',

P,


MCAS3,s


S---DIFFER NCE IN FUEL
COSTS DU : TO CONTRACT

NET REVENUE FROM
o AsrE -AS T r -"
COMPLIANCE COSTS FROM
FUEL SWITCHING


MAT


Figure 2-6. High Sulfur Contract: Relative Savings from Contract Coal


USING ALLOWANCE
ALLOCATION
t^


ADDITIONAL
ALLOWANCE PURCHASES
/


Figure 2-7. Cost Savings from Using Allowances Over Fuel Switching


MCs, c

MCAss


AMW ArM 0 AMAY

NET SELLER NET BUYER


Figure 2-8. Low Sulfur Contract


MC4S, -

MCAf6s^


--b


- J I


I I I IU


NET SELLER NET BUYER


P^
C,4 -

MCASs


' _Jc4SS


AMW
A-


4MAX


(ii)


_._ -




















MCAcC


Fi 0


Figure 2-9. No Contract: Compliance Costs


4-


DIFFERENCE IN
COSTSDUE TO(
COMPLIANCE
COST S FROM
ALLOWANCE
PURCHASK4

^Mf ,,M


$ (i)
DIFFERENCE IN TOTAL
COSTS DUE TO CONTRACT
___-____ ___


MCA C


;1MAX 4MMY


DIFFERENCE IN
COSTS DUE TO
COMPLIANCE
COST S FROM
ALLOWANCE
PURCHASE*-


4S iB


(ii)
DIFFERENCE IN T OTAL
COSTS DUE TO CONTRACT
\


0 AAX Y MAX
IAI i


Figure 2-10. Low Sulfur Coal Contract: MCA"'


4-


(1)
DIFFERENCE IN FUEL
COSTS DUE TO CONTRACT
I


|I I1


M. ---------------
" DIFFERENCE IN
COSTS DUE TO

P-- .---------------
A COMPLIANCE
COSTS FROM
ALLOWANCE,
PURCHASES
I!


PA

MC40


-41 W A4AY
0 -iM4^ ,|M


COMPLIANCE
ALLOWANCE


g)iN AMI


$ (ii)
DIFFERENCE IN COMPLIANCE
COSTS DUE TO CONTRACTS




COSI S FROM
PURCHASE S DIFFERENCE
IN FUEL COSS
DUE TO
CONTRACT


o q ARY


Figure 2-11. Low Sulfur Coal Contract: MCA"'





122


MCAcS


m m


















PF = MCAP

MCA' -



-AM7N 0




Figure 2-12. Compliance Costs: PA



p $
COMPLIANCE
FROM EITH
ALLOWANCE PUl
OR SWITCHING
P =MC ^S


COMPLIANCE COSTS
FROM EITHER
ALLOWANCE PURCHASES
OR SWITCHING FUELS


A MAXY
Z'


MCA8,8


4MN 4MMA 0 40 'N 0 ^M4X


Figure 2-13. High Sulfur Coal Contract


COMPLIANCE COSTS


$(i)
ADDITIONAL FUEL COSTS

min,>


0 \ AM

MASC
PA


MCA5,s --
PA =MCAs'S


COMPLIANCE
COSTS -

A^~ jMW


$(ii)
ADDITIONAL FUEL COSTS








0 AMr MA4X
4 (ii


Figure 2-14. Low Sulfur Coal Contract


MC4sc -
PA = MC4'-











$ (i) (ii)





McAps -MC^ ~
!MS ; S M


I I o I
A 0






PA









MCA',_
A


S2 SMExcess Dmd Crres: MA '

Figure 2-16. Excess Demand Correspondence: MCA"' > PS





















4ML ;4-fMAX N A4 s a


Figure 2-17. Impact of a High Sulfur Coal Contract: MCA'" < PS


GAfigss


AMCA7's -

PA


PA

MC4Ass



MCA -
A -


Figure 2-18. Impact of a High Sulfur Coal Contract: MCA > P



A (i

AI '- MCf -



ACA'- ,, MCA4s
II
IA


A"~


WMAX A'WX


Figure 2-19. Impact of a Low Sulfur Coal Contract: MCAi'" > PA


_ _,dA-x SMSX A- 4 uMMy









































I 4-






A
I p' -4
I -
l l
J,


0 4"MA 4A


M ss .






pss
IA


4SMh 4SMAX 4SMAX 4 Q


Figure 2-20. Impact of a low sulfur Coal Contract: MCAs < P


i- 4i MAM









CHAPTER 3
THE EFFECT OF FUEL CONTRACTING CONSTRAINTS ON SO2 TRADING
PROGRAM COMPLIANCE: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE

3.1 Introduction

The U.S. SO2 Trading Program created by Title IV of the 1990 Clean Air Act

Amendment led to lower compliance costs than what would have occurred under a

Command-and-Control approach. However, all compliance cost savings were not realized

in the early years of the program. There have been several conjectures as to why the

hypothetical outcome was not obtained, including short-run rigidities from fuel contracts.

C'! lpter 2 shows how fuel contracts could alter a generating unit's compliance decision

in the U.S. SO2 Trading Program, but ignores any .I -: regate allowance market and

iiillli-1i v-.1-ide compliance cost impacts. This paper expands on C!i lpter 2 by looking at

the allowance market equilibrium impacts and total industry compliance costs from fuel

contracts through analytics and empirical modeling.

Given the scrubber choice, an allowance market equilibrium will exist. Allowing

for the scrubber choice makes it impossible to guarantee an equilibrium, but one still

may exist. Binding fuel contracts may lead to altered unit-level excess demands and,

in so doing, the allowance market price (PA). Meanwhile, binding contracts can alter

compliance decisions and increase total industry compliance costs.

This paper uses generating unit-level simulations to replicate results from previous

studies and show that short-run fuel contracts appear to explain a large portion of the

previously unexplained excess compliance costs found in previous simulations. Simulating

the least-cost compliance choices without including fuel contract constraints results in

minimum annual industry compliance costs of _'-- 3 million, which varies greatly from

the actual compliance costs of $1.30 billion found in these simulations. Once fuel contract

constraints are introduced into the simulation, the minimum annual industry compliance

costs become $1.01 billion. Based on these results, fuel contract constraints explain -i.'1.1

million, or 6 !'. of the excess compliance costs realized in the program for 1996.









Also, this paper considers a more appropriate level for compliance decisions. The

literature has only considered compliance costs at the generating unit level. However,

actual compliance decisions would be made at the plant level because of the economic

relations and the physical proximity between generating units. Coal is delivered at

the plant level, where multiple generating units may be located. Since a plant is

only concerned about minimizing its total costs at the plant, the minimization at a

particular generating unit is not necessary for a plant to make optimal choices. This paper

analytically analyzes the plant level decision-making process to show why it is appropriate

to consider decisions as the plant level instead of the generating unit level, the interaction

of choices for economically related generating units, and how cost-minimization at the

plant level may deviate from cost-minimization at the generating unit level.

The paper will be structured in the following manner: Section 2 will look at

the conditions for an allowance market equilibrium while Section 3 will look at the

comparative statics of the allowance market. Section 4 will look at compliance costs,

both for an individual generating unit and the entire industry. Section 5 and Section

6 will explain the data used in the generating unit level simulations and the results

from the actual simulations, respectively. Section 7 will analyze the plant level decision

making process, how it differs from the generating unit level model, and what additional

information the model will add to the literature.

3.2 Review of Generating Unit Model

3.2.1 Generating Unit Problem




mm zA- + P A. + PC + PAA + + + P + P zi,Ai,Cg,C ,C',C
subject to...A7 + A, > (1 z)(m)(CS + CS + CS + CS>) Ai (3-2)

(CSH + C H + CQH8 + CHI) > D Ai2 (3 3)

C> /4 (3-4)









Cl = C pil (3-5)

Ch, Ci > 0 (36)

zi {0,1} (3-7)

Equation (3-1) represents the unit's cost function. These costs include the cost of

scrubber installation (ziPi,), net costs of allowance purchases (PAAi), and costs of coal

purchases (P 'hC + P"jC[ + P. C. + PFCi). The emissions constraint is shown in (3-2),

where the number of allowances held (A + Ai) must be as large as the amount of total

emissions by the generating unit [(1 ziri)(m)(C[2S/i + C2Sc + C["ii + CjSj)]. Total

emissions is a function of the amount of each coal type used as well as the emissions

reduction due to a scrubber, if one is installed. The Lagrange multiplier on the emissions

constraint is represented by Ail. The demand constraint requires that the amount of heat

input to generate electricity (C[,H, + CfhHch + C[H,[ + C5Hj,) must cover the consumer

demand (Di) for electricity expressed as heat input, which is seen in (3-3). The Lagrange

multiplier on the demand constraint is represented by Ai2. Coal contract constraints

require the unit to use a specific amount of each contract coal type, Cc for high sulfur

coal in (3-4) and Ci for low sulfur coal in (3-5). A unit will use exactly the contracted

amount because (1) if the contract coal is more expensive than spot market coal, then a

unit will not want to use any more contract coal than is necessary and (2) if contract coal

is cheaper than spot market coal, the coal producer would prefer to sell any additional

non-contracted coal through the spot market. The Lagrange multiplier for each contract

constraint on each coal type is represented by /ih for high sulfur contract coal and /il for

low sulfur contract coal.

3.2.2 Optimal Compliance Choices

The following is a summary of a generating unit's compliance choices derived in

C'! lpter 2 both with and without fuel contracts.









Given the scrubber choice, a generating unit that does not face any coal contract

constraints will make its optimal choices based on the relationship of the allowance

price (PA) and the marginal cost of abatement from switching fuels from high sulfur

spot market coal to low sulfur spot market coal (MCAj'"). If PA > MCA"'S, then

it is cheaper to meet the emissions constraint by decreasing emissions by switching

fuels than purchasing allowances. A unit will use all low sulfur coal and purchase the

minimum amount of allowances, which will result in the following compliance choices:

ch = Cf1 = s,MAX Di, and A, AMI. If PA < MCA'", then it is cheaper

to meet the emissions constraint by purchasing allowances than decreasing emissions by

switching fuels. A unit will use all high sulfur coal and purchase the maximum amount

of allowances, which will result in the following compliance choices: Ch= C, Di,

C, 0, and Ai = AAX.

Introducing a high sulfur coal contract constraint will restrict spot market coal use by

Cc and will alter excess demand (Ai). The maximum amount of high sulfur spot market

coal use decreases from Di = MAX to Di C = ,AX The maximum amount

of low sulfur spot market coal decreases from Di CI,MAX to Di Cc = ,MAX

If PA > MCA"', a unit will use it's contract constrained maximum amount of low

sulfur spot market coal (Cs,MAX) and excess demand will increase from AMIN to AMIN.

If PA < MCA"'8, a unit will use it's contract constrained maximum amount of high

sulfur spot market coal (,MAX) and excess demand will shift from AMAX to MAX. If
Sh < S then AAX < MAX. If i> i then AMAX > MAX
H H S s H H i
ih i- h ih ih
Introducing a low sulfur coal contract constraint will restrict spot market coal use by

Ci and will alter excess demand (Ai). The maximum amount of high sulfur spot market

coal use decreases from Di = CsMAX to Di Cc = sMAX The maximum amount
,MAX MAX
of low sulfur spot market coal decreases from Di C"SM to Di Ci= ",' f

PA > MCA8', a unit will use it's contract constrained maximum amount of low sulfur

spot market coal (iMAX) and excess demand will shift from AMIN to AI. If < H









then AMIN < AMN. If S > then AmN > AN If PA < MCA8, a unit will
s i HiH He' i i
use it's contract constrained maximum amount of high sulfur coal (C 8MAX) and excess

demand will decrease from AMAX to AAX.

Allowing the scrubber choice to be endogenous results in more complex impacts

of coal contracts on compliance decisions. A generating unit that does not face any

coal contract constraints will make its optimal choices based on two conditions: (1) the

relationship of PA relative to the allowance price at which a unit is indifferent to installing

a scrubber (PA) and (2) the relationship of PA relative to MCA8'" given the scrubber

choice.

If PAS > PA, a unit will not install a scrubber because total costs to the generating

unit will be lower without installing a scrubber. The resulting coal use and excess demand

will be the same as described above: C, = D, Q = 0, and A AMAX if PA < MCA '

and CQ 0, CQ = Di, and A, = A^IN if PA > MCA'8 where MCA'" is the marginal

cost of abatement from switching fuels without a scrubber.

If PAS < PA, a unit will install a scrubber because total costs will be lower with a

scrubber installed. As explained in C'! lpter 2 the marginal cost of abatement with a

scrubber (MCAj'") will be much higher than the marginal cost of abatement without a

scrubber (MCA"'j). The resulting coal use and excess demand will now be CQ Di,

CQ = 0, and A =- AfA if PA < MCA'" and CQ 0, CQ DA, and A = Af if

PA > MCA".

The result is a combination of the two excess demand correspondences where at some

allowance price (PA) where a scrubber will be installed there is a large non-continuous

decrease in a unit's excess demand.

Introducing a high sulfur coal contract constraint will have the same direct impacts

as when scrubbers are given. Coal use will be restricted by Cc. The excess demand

correspondence will be impacted in the same manner except there will be four shifts

instead of two. Minimum excess demand with a scrubber (AfMIN) and without a scrubber









(AMIN) will increase to AfMIN and A jJN, respectively. Maximum excess demand with

a scrubber (ASMAX) and without a scrubber (A AX) will shift in the same direction,

which depends on the relationship of -h to A high sulfur coal contract creates a
Hih Hfh
greater incentive to install a scrubber because of the higher minimum excess demand, and

decreases the allowance price at which a unit will install a scrubber from PA to P e. For

this price range, a unit will install a scrubber where it would not have without the high

sulfur coal contract constraint.

Introducing a low sulfur coal contract constraint will have the same direct impacts

as when scrubbers are given. Coal use will be restricted by C-. The excess demand

correspondence will be impacted in the same manner except there will be four shifts

instead of two. Minimum excess demand with a scrubber (AfMIN) and without a scrubber

(AMIN) will shift in the same direction, which depends on the relationship of to .
ii l
Maximum excess demand with a scrubber (ASMAX) and without a scrubber (A AX)

will decrease to AMAX and AAX, respectively. A low sulfur coal contract decreases

the incentive to install a scrubber because of the lower maximum excess demand, and

increases the allowance price at which a unit will install a scrubber from PA to PA + e. For

this price range, a unit will no longer install a scrubber where it would have without the

low sulfur coal contract constraint.

In summary, coal contracts will restrict a unit's coal use options, which may alter a

unit's compliance choices and excess demand for allowances. Less freedom in compliance

decisions may result in an increase in a unit's compliance costs.

3.3 Allowance Market Equilibrium

An allowance market equilibrium will exist under certain conditions. First, assume

that there is perfect information and that all generating unit's are price takers in the

allowance market. The definition of an equilibrium for the allowance market is as follows:

Definition 5.8.1: An equilibrium for the allowance market is a price PJ > 0,

allowance excess demands (A~), spot market coal fuel purchases (C',>* C*), and scrubber









installation choice (z*) such that: (1) For each i c {1,..., n}, A, z*, CC, CO,* solve...


mm z Pi, + P1 A + P+ C+ + PICfl + P Ch+ PiCi (3-8)
zi,Ai,C0^,C'
A, i,0f i
subject to...A7 + A, > (1 z (r)(m)(C S i + C Si + CiSSi + C' Si) (3-9)

(C, H,A + ChHc + COHil + OCH ) > Di (3-10)

Cc > U, (3-11)

c > (3-12)

iC, Cil > 0 (3-13)

zi C {0,1} (3-14)

Ai is Unrestricted (3 15)

(2) The allowance market clears. At P1,


A < 0 and P A 0 (316)
i= 1 i= 1

Theorem 5.1: Assuming the scrubber choice (z*) as given, an equilibrium exists for

the allowance market.

From Kakutani's Fixed Point Theorem, a fixed point exists if the market excess

demand correspondence upper semi-continuous, compact-valued, and convex-valued.

Each generating unit's excess demand correspondences are upper semi-continuous,

compact-valued, and convex-valued, which implies that the market excess demand is also

upper semi-continuous, compact-valued, and convex-valued. Given these conditions there

is a fixed point, and therefore, an equilibrium exists. Note that there may be multiple

equilibria, but there is at least one equilibrium. The Proof of Theorem 1 is in Appendix B.

The existence of an allowance market equilibrium is no longer guaranteed once the

discrete scrubber choice is introduced into the model. The non-convex nature of the

scrubber decision variable makes it impossible to guarantee that an equilibrium exists

because the excess demand is no longer convex for the range (A SMAX, A^IN). In such









a case, there will either be positive or negative market excess demand. In either case, it

could be considered a "quasi-equilibrium" because it can be assumed that an allowance

broker will sell any excess demand or buy any excess supply of allowances.

3.4 Comparative Statics: Effects on the Allowance Market

3.4.1 Comparative Statics: Effect of Relative Fuel Cost on the Allowance
Market

Since a generating unit's excess demand for allowances relies on the relative costs

of purchasing allowances (PA) compared to reducing emissions through switching from

high sulfur to low sulfur coal (MCAj'"). If PA > MCA"'S, then it is cheaper to switch to

low sulfur coal. If PA < MCA"'S, then it is cheaper to purchase allowances. Therefore,

changing the parameters of the marginal cost of abatement may alter the excess demand

and, in turn, impact the allowance price.

Proposition 1: Assuming the scrubber choice, a higher fuel price differential for low

sulfur spot market coal relative to high sulfur spot market coal will weakly increase PA.

Proof of Proposition 1: From C'! lpter 2, the marginal cost of abatement is derived as

(3-17).
HS Hh
MCASS H-- -hs (3 17)


Consider the impact of an increase in the price of low sulfur spot market coal on

the MCAj'". An increase in the price difference between fuels per unit of heat from

S- ) toh (o ) where < increases the numerator of (3 17) and results
T1 Th T1 4h iT iT
in an increase in the marginal cost of abatement from MCAj'" to MCAj'" + 6 where
pTl P,
H,
6 = H-- -_-__. A higher MCA8'" makes the relative cost to the generating unit
ih
purchasing allowances lower, and will lead to a weak increase in a unit's excess demand.

Excess demand will increase if MCA'"8 < PA and MCA>'" + 6 > PA and not change if

MCA'" +6 < PA or MCA"'j > PA. Greater excess demand in the allowance market results

in an increase in the total allowance market demand and possibly a decrease in allowance

market supply, both of which will weakly increase PA.









3.4.2 Comparative Statics: Effect of Coal Contracts on the Allowance Market
Given the Scrubber Choice

Assuming the scrubber choice as given, each binding coal contract will have an

unambiguous impact on the allowance price. A binding high sulfur coal contract weakly

increases the allowance price, ceteris paribus. A binding low sulfur coal contract weakly

decreases the allowance price in the market, ceteris paribus.

3.4.2.1 Impact of high sulfur coal contract on allowance market

A generating unit's excess demand for allowances may be altered by a binding high

sulfur coal contract constraint. From C'! Ilpter 2, a binding high sulfur coal contract

will result in more high sulfur coal use than would be optimal for a generating unit and

increase a generating unit's excess demand. An increase in a generating unit's excess

demand may increase the allowance market price.

Proposition 2: Assuming the scrubber choice as given and ( ), a high sulfur
Hih ih
contract results in a weakly higher allowance price.

Proof of Proposition 2: As has already been shown in C'!i lpter 2, given the

scrubber choice and S- a high sulfur contract results in a weak increase in a
ih ih
generating unit's excess demand.

If PA < MCA"', a generating unit prefers to use high sulfur coal, create its maximum

possible emissions, and have an excess demand of AMAX. Assuming the same relative

sulfur content for spot and contract coal, a high sulfur coal contract will not change total

emissions or excess demand (A AX= AMAX) and PA remains unchanged.

If PA > MCA"', a generating unit prefers to switch fuels from high to low sulfur coal,

create its minimum possible emissions, and have an excess demand of A"IN. However, the

high sulfur coal contract would force greater than the minimum amount of emissions and

weakly increase excess demand to AIN. A higher excess demand will lead to a decrease

in the allowance market supply or both a decrease in allowance market supply and an

increase in the allowance market demand. In both cases PA weakly increases.









3.4.2.2 Impact of low sulfur coal contract on allowance market

A generating unit's excess demand for allowances may be altered by a binding

low sulfur coal contract constraint. From C'! Ilpter 2, a binding low sulfur coal contract

will result in more low sulfur coal use than would be optimal for a generating unit and

decrease a generating unit's excess demand. A decrease in a generating unit's excess

demand may decrease the allowance market price.

Proposition 3: Assuming the scrubber choice as given and H, a low sulfur

contract results in a weakly lower allowance price.

Proof of Proposition 3: As has already been shown in C'!i lpter 2, given the

scrubber choice and H H a low sulfur contract results in a weak decrease in a
H: H77T
generating unit's excess demand.

If PA > MCA"', a generating unit prefers to switch fuels from high to low sulfur coal,

create its minimum possible emissions, and have an excess demand of AIN. Assuming

the same relative sulfur content for spot and contract coal, a low sulfur coal contract will

not change total emissions or excess demand (AIN = AFIN) and PA remains unchanged.

If PA < MCA"', a generating unit prefers to use high sulfur coal, create its maximum

possible emissions, and have an excess demand of AMAX. However, the low sulfur coal

contract would force less than the maximum amount of emissions and weakly decrease

excess demand to AAX. A lower excess demand will lead to an increase in the allowance

market supply or both an increase in allowance market supply and a decrease in the

allowance market demand. In both cases PA weakly decreases.

3.4.3 Comparative Statics: Effect of Coal Contracts on the Allowance Market
with Endogenous Scrubber Choice

Previously when the scrubber choice was taken as given, the impact of coal contracts

on the allowance price was unambiguously non-negative or non-positive. High sulfur

contracts may only lead to an increase in the allowance price while low sulfur contracts









may lead to only a decrease in the allowance price. However, taking into account the

scrubber choice causes the sign of the impact on the allowance price to become ambiguous.

When you consider the scrubber choice in the decision-making process, it is uncertain

how a coal contract will affect the allowance market because the contract may increase

or decrease excess demand depending on the allowance price ranges derived in ('! Ilpter

2. Although it is certain that if the coal contract binds, then there will be a shift to a

sub-optimal excess demand for three different allowance price ranges.

3.4.3.1 High sulfur coal contract binds

Each of the three price ranges derived in C'!i lpter 2 must be discussed to understand

how a high sulfur coal contract will effect the allowance market, both in terms of the

allowance market supply, allowance market demand, and the allowance price. Assume

ih ih

If a generating unit has a high sulfur coal contract, the unit's excess demand increases

for two allowance price ranges: (PA > MCA7'8) and (P' e > PA > MCA"'").

The increase in excess demand will be from AfMIN to AI when (PA > MCA"'j).

The increase in excess demand will be from AIN to AIN or AIN to AAX when

(PX e > PA > MCA,'"), depending on the relationship between (PS c) and MCA"'.

It will be the latter in the special case where the generating unit ah--,v- prefers to use high

sulfur coal.

When the market allowance price is in these two ranges that result in an increase in

a generating unit's excess demand, there will be either an increase in the market demand

for allowances, or both an increase in market demand and a decrease in market supply for

allowances. In both situations, the allowance price will be driven higher.

The third price range that has a shift in the excess demand is (Pf e, PA). A

generating unit decreases its excess demand from AMIN to ASMAX, which is a result of

a unit installing a scrubber for a price range for which it initially would not install a

scrubber.









When the market allowance price is in this range that results in a decrease in a

generating unit's excess demand, there will be either an decrease in the market demand

for allowances, or both an decrease in market demand and a increase in market supply for

allowances. In both situations, the allowance price will be driven lower.

3.4.3.2 Low sulfur coal contract binds

Each of the three price ranges derived in C'i plter 2 must be discussed to understand

how a low sulfur coal contract will effect the allowance market, both in terms of the

allowance market supply, allowance market demand, and the allowance price. Assume
ss SC
H' H?
If a generating unit has a low sulfur coal contract, the unit's excess demand decreases

for two allowance price ranges: (MCA>'8 > PA > Pf + e) and (min{Pf, MCAf'"} >
PA). The decrease in excess demand will be from ASMA to AAX when (MCAS'" >
PA > Pf + ). The decrease in excess demand will be from AAX to ~AX when

(min{PI, MCA'"} > PA).

When the market allowance price is in these ranges that result in a decrease in a

generating unit's excess demand, there will be either an decrease in the market demand

for allowances, or both an decrease in market demand and a increase in market supply for

allowances. In both situations, PA will be driven lower.

The third price range that has a shift in the excess demand is (Pf, PA + e). A

generating unit increases its excess demand from either ASMAX to AMIN or ASMAX to
-AMAX depending on the relationship between (PA + e) and MCA'". This increase is

a result of a unit not installing a scrubber for a price range for it initially would have

installed a scrubber.

When the market allowance price is in this range that results in an increase in a

generating unit's excess demand, there will be either an increase in the market demand

for allowances, or both an increase in market demand and a decrease in market supply for

allowances. In both situations, PA will be driven higher.









3.5 Compliance Costs

Total compliance costs for a generating unit are the additional costs due to the

li. -' ,ri including costs from switching fuels, the costs from its net allowance position,

and scrubber installation costs (seen in (3-18)).


zPi, + PjA, + max{(PCfi, + PFCf Pi MAX), 0} (3-18)

Compliance costs may be positive or negative depending on its compliance decisions

and its initial allowance allocation. The scrubber installation costs are represented by

P,, and will only attribute to a unit's compliance costs if a scrubber is installed in

response to the program (zi = 1). The costs of a unit's net allowance position is the

difference between a generating unit's initial allowance allocation and its actual emissions

multiplied by the allowance price (PAAj). The costs of switching fuels is the larger of

two values: (1) total costs of actual coal purchases (PCihh + Pji C + PFhC + PFCi)

minus the costs of purchasing only high sulfur spot market coal given any contracted
-s s ,M A X '. c cc
coal (P CA M + PFhC + PFC?), or (2) zero. The latter will only occur if it is weakly

cheaper for the generating unit to use low sulfur coal without the emissions restrictions

( > H7). It is important to consider that the contracted coal will be used regardless
ih ii
of the program and will have no direct impact on compliance costs. However, a contract

could have an indirect impact by altering compliance decisions.

3.5.1 Compliance Costs with Coal Contracts Relative to Compliance Costs
from Previous Studies

Previous studies have assumed no restrictions on coal use, which results in a different

estimation of compliance costs. The optimal compliance choices in this case will not

account for any coal use restrictions. The constant "c" is the minimum costs for a

generating unit to meet its electricity demand if emissions and coal use are not restricted.


Pi + PA + PC + P C c (3-19)









A binding high (low) sulfur coal contract constraint leads to two possible cost

inefficiencies, but only one of which increases compliance costs. First, a contract could lead

to a generating unit using more than the optimal amount of high (low) sulfur coal and

less than the optimal low (high) sulfur coal. In this case, actual compliance decisions are

altered and may lead to a sub-optimal coal mix. Second, a contract may force a unit to

use some high (low) sulfur coal that is "more exp' .i-,i. than the high (low) sulfur spot

market coal price, which increases total costs while leaving compliance costs unchanged. In

previous studies, both of these cost inefficiencies were identified as excess compliance costs

because contract restrictions were ignored in the baseline costs without the program (c).


( z +P +P +P +PC c +PC- c) > (zP P A* +PC,* +P, C* c)

(3-20)

The minimum compliance cost choices with no contract constraint for previous studies

are denoted by "*" while the contract constrained minimum compliance cost choices are

denoted by "A" in (3-20). The assumed "c" is the total costs of meeting demand assuming

no contract constraint or emissions constraint. The cost difference between these two sets

of choices will be the combination of changes in compliance decisions and fuel costs. Some

of these :; -- compliance < n-I may not be compliance costs, which makes the derived

compliance costs too high. So it is important to include the contract constrained coal use

in the baseline "c" to get the appropriate compliance costs. Assuming that contracted coal

is at least as expensive as spot market coal, the compliance costs will be greater for the

contract constrained case as shown in (3-20) and as expressed in (3-21).


Sz( z4) + P(A, Af+P(Csf ( Csf) + P(C PCi*P) C + P c > 0 (3-21)


Consider a simple example where high sulfur contract coal is more expensive than

high sulfur spot market coal, low sulfur coal is preferred over high sulfur coal, and no

scrubber would be installed if a generating unit had total freedom in its coal use choices.

Now compare a generating unit's compliance costs to the compliance costs a unit would









face with a high sulfur coal contract for 10t' of its coal use. The change in compliance

costs seen in (3-22) include the additional costs from an increase in allowance purchases

and a decrease in coal costs from using cheaper, but dirtier fuel.

P,(AMAX AAMIN) ps ,MAX + pcX >0 (3 22)
i 'ilvil 'I ih

Since the contract coal would have to be used regardless of enactment of the program, the

additional costs for high sulfur contract coal use instead of high sulfur spot market coal

(PICMAx PC'jMAX) should not be included in compliance costs. However, previous

studies would recognize these fuel costs as compliance costs based on the assumed cost

minimization without contract constraints.


PizP + PIA, + P

The appropriate unit-level compliance costs will take the form shown in (3-23) where the

baseline total costs will take the value "i", which represents the costs of meeting electricity

demand given the coal contract constraint. These costs "F' will be different than "c"

because the spot market coal use will be altered if the contracted coal differs relative the

spot market coal it replaces in production.


PlCil" + PihCih + iC + P Pici I PgiCil' + PiChih (3-24)


3.5.2 Total Industry Compliance Cost

The total compliance costs to the industry are the sum of the combined scrubber

installation costs and fuel switching costs for all affected generating units. The total

industry costs from net allowance purchases are zero because each allowance sold by one

generating unit at PJ is purchased by another generating unit at PA. Assuming that high

sulfur coal is cheaper than low sulfur coal, then the total industry compliance costs are

(3-25).

S[z Pi + max{(PiCf + Ph C P CtMAX), 0}] (3-25)
i=i









The minimum unconstrained total industry compliance costs to the industry is

derived from the following problem. Each generating unit chooses its optimal A Ci >

0, C[* > 0, z* E {0, 1} based on the market equilibrium allowance price, P1. The

total compliance costs as shown in the objective function in (3-26) are the sum of the

compliance costs for each generating unit. Similar to the generating unit's problem in

C'!i lpter 2, there are two constraints that must be met. First, the sum of allowance

allocations must cover the sum of emissions that are emitted by all affected generating

units. Second, each generating unit must produce enough electricity to cover its electricity

demand requirement.


mmin z Pi + max{(P ClI + P Ch PCMAx), 0} (3-26)
zi,Ai',Ch'C i 1

s.t. (t zr) (Ci Si + CSi) (m) < Ae
i= 1 i= 1
(C$H C + CfHf) >D, Vie {1,...,n}

ze {0, 1} Vie {1,...,n}

If all generating units' cost-minimizing decisions result in an equilibrium in the

allowance market, then total industry compliance costs are minimized. We can prove this

by showing the first-order conditions for the minimized total industry compliance costs

match up with the first-order conditions from the generating unit's problem in ('! Ilpter 2,

and the optimal choices will be the same for both problems.

Solve for the first-order conditions given zi. For high sulfur coal:


Pih + A i(l zriTi)()(Sih) Ai2Hfh > 0, 0 if Cih > 0 (3-27)

For low sulfur coal:


Pai + A1(1 z r)(m)(Sjt) Ai2H > 0, 0 if Ca > 0 (3-28)









The first-order conditions are identical to those of the individual generating unit in

C'! lpter 2 when neither coal contract constraints bind. So a generating unit's cost

minimizing choices of C[*, C,* at PJ for each generating unit also minimize total industry

compliance costs at Pj.

These first-order conditions can be used to solve for Ail, the allowance shadow price,

which is also the same as for the generating unit problem. Since the compliance choices

that minimize the costs for all generating units result in the equilibrium P!, the allowance

choices also minimize the total industry costs.
PS" P5"
Ail MCA' --7Hl h Th (3-29)
(t Z r) (m)( |-h -| )
ih 7T

The same approach can be used under the iiili i-I i v--i.de compliance cost problem

with coal contract constraints to show that contract constrained minimum total industry

compliance cost will differ from the unconstrained costs.


n
+ (p p, s, MAX 0 1
z ~ P + max{(P + Phi -h Pfih CM )0
Zi,Ai,Gi,G^ T^
n n

i=i i=1
(C H, + Ch Hh + CizH + CiH,) > Di

Cih, Cl >_ 0

z e {0, 1}


The first-order conditions. For high sulfur spot market coal...


(3-30)


Vi e { ,...,n}

Vi e {1,..., n}

Vi e {1,..., n}


1i + Ail(1 ziri)(m )(S,')) Ai2H,8 > 0,= 0 if C67 > 0


(3-31)


For low sulfur spot market coal...


Pil + Ai1(t zi)(m)(Sf) 2Hf, > 0, 0 if C'i, > 0


(3-32)










The first-order conditions are identical to those of the individual generating unit in

C'!i pter 2.
ps ps
il ih
H H (333)
(t )iri)(m)( | -h )
Th i

These first-order conditions can be used to solve for Ail, the allowance shadow price,

which is also the same as for the individual generating unit problem. If a generating

unit uses high sulfur coal, PA < MCA"'8. If a generating unit uses low sulfur coal,

PA > MCA"'8. If a generating unit uses both high and low sulfur coal, PA = MCA'8.

So a generating unit's cost minimizing choices of z*, C>, Ci*, Af* for each generating unit

also minimize total industry compliance costs. If the contract constrained compliance

choices that minimize the costs for a generating unit results in an equilibrium P!, the

choices also minimize the contract constrained total industry costs. Note that the optimal

parameter combination for the contract constrained case will not be the same as under the

unconstrained case.

It has already been shown that any binding contract constraint for an individual

generating unit will result in a sub-optimal combination of coal use, which will weakly

increase compliance costs for the contract constrained generating unit. Any sub-optimal

choices made by one generating unit will weakly increase the costs for the entire industry.

3.5.3 Impact of Allowance Allocation on Compliance Costs Given Scrubber
the Choice

There are several studies that have considered the impact of the allowance allocation

distribution on cost efficiencies of allowance trading systems. Montgomery (1972) showed

that the allowance allocation distribution does not affect compliance costs, but it does

not consider the possible effects of contract constraints or PUC regulation. Stavins (1995)

has shown that transaction costs in allowance trading markets with continuous marginal

abatement costs can cause the initial allowance allocation distribution to matter for

efficiency. Montero (1997) extends Stavins (1995) by introducing non-continuous marginal









abatement costs through discrete technology choices and introducing uncertainty into

the Stavins' model. Montero finds that in an allowance trading system with transaction

costs, non-continuous marginal abatement costs resulting from discrete technology choices

can cause the initial allocation of allowances to matter for efficiency, even with constant

marginal costs of abatement and certainty.

The importance of the allowance allocation in these previous studies relies on the

existence of transaction costs. However, this model has assumed no allowance transaction

costs, which allows it to show that even with coal contract constraints the allowance

allocation distribution will not impact a generating unit's compliance choices or the total

industry compliance costs.1

Consider the first-order conditions for both high sulfur and low sulfur coal, which are

independent of a generating unit's allowance allocation. The type of coal a unit will use

will not depend on Ae.


Pih + AiI(l ziri)(m)(Si%) Ai2H > 0 (3-34)

Pi4 + Ai(li zjrj)(m)(Sjf) Ai2H^I > 0 (3-35)

The choice between switching fuels or purchasing allowances is based solely on a

generating unit's relative marginal cost of purchasing the next allowance compared to the

effective marginal cost of abating the next unit of emissions. As can be seen, Ae has no

impact on a generating unit's compliance decisions. A generating unit will use allowances



1 It is assumed that generating units are unable to break their contracts. Generating
units could realistically break their contracts at a very high price and create the additional
freedom in its compliance choices. In such a case, contract constraints would result in very
high transaction costs for trading those additional allowances.









when PJ < MCA"'8 and switch fuels when PJ > MCA"'8.
p pF


ib ii
P | MCh'A H (3-36)



3.5.4 Impact of Allowance Allocation with Endogenous Scrubber Choice

Consider the expression for the allowance price at which a generating unit is

indifferent to installing a scrubber (PF), which has already been derived in C'i .Iter

2.
Pi, + Pih Cih Cih) + PilCUil Cil) ( gS
(A, Aj)
It is possible to fill in for Ai = (Ei A') since excess demand is the difference between

actual emissions and initial allowance allocation to see how Ae will impact PA. In the

denominator, Ae and -Ae cancel out, leaving an expression for PAS that is unaffected by

Aj. So a generating unit's scrubber choice will be made independent of Aj.

Pi, + Pih(Cih Cih) + Pil ( Cil)
-< PA (3-37)
(E? + Ae- ?, A<)

Now consider the compliance choices made after the scrubber installation decision.

It was shown in ('! Ilpter 2 that a generating unit's compliance choices are based on the

relationship between the PA and MCAj'" or MCA '", depending on the unit's scrubber

choice, for a particular unit of coal. Similar to what was shown above, a generating unit's

MCA"'" and MCA"'" for a given unit of coal are not affected by A' because allowances are

not a parameter in the marginal cost of abatement.

Piz Pih



PHl Pih
MCA' Hil Hih
MC-jHih H,,h









3.6 Simulation Model


3.6.1 Introduction

It has been shown analytically that contracts may alter compliance choices by altering

coal use and scrubber installation and lead to greater compliance costs. These results may

be able to explain a large portion of the excess compliance costs found in previous studies.

This section will show how much of these excess compliance costs can be explained by

contract constraints.

The first portion of this section will look at the data used to parameterize the

simulation model, which includes a description of where the data was obtained, the

techniques used to create the parameters, and some issues regarding the data. The second

portion will look at the model design and approach. The last portion will summarize

the simulation results in terms of the total industry, individual states, and individual

generating units.

3.6.2 Data

All data used in the simulation, with an exception for the coal contract data,

were obtained from Dr. Paul Sotkiewicz. Using the same data allows for direct result

comparisons to determine the coal contract impacts. Dr. Sotkiewicz originally hand-collected

the the data from the EIA's "Cost and Quality of Fuels 1996," the EIA's "Electric Power

Annual 1997," and the EPA's "1996 Compliance Report."

Up to this point all generating units are assumed to be coal-fired units because it is

the primary fuel options for electricity generation in the U.S. However, there are 24 units

of the 431 units that used fuel oil or natural gas for electricity generation. The treatment

of these units is described in Section 6.2.1.

3.6.2.1 Fuel data

Fuel data on heat content, sulfur content, and delivered price were obtained from the

EIA's "Cost and Quality of Fuels 1996", which compiled information from FERC Form

423. The coal contract data was gathered directly from the FERC Form 423 database for









1996, which describes the characteristics of all fuel delivered to utility plants. Information

on the heat content, sulfur content, purchasing agreement, and delivered price for each

shipment are available, which can differ greatly from utility to utility and delivery to

delivery for each plant depending on location.

The heat content of delivered coal is in Btus of heat per ton of coal, barrel of oil,

or 1,000 cubic feet of natural gas. All fuel parameters are converted in terms of a heat

content baseline to allow for comparisons across units.

The purchasing agreement is labeled as two possible parameters: (1) spot market

and (2) contract purchases. An agreement is considered a spot market purchase if the

agreement is for less than 2 years. Purchasing agreements of two years or greater are

considered to be under contract. The amount of fuel under contract is in tons, barrels, or

1,000 cubic feet depending on the fuel. The data is manipulated into total heat content by

multiplying the heat content per unit of fuel by the amount of fuel delivered.

Since coal deliveries are made at the plant level, the size of the contract constraint is

not easily derived for each generating unit. The parameter for the amount of contract coal

for each generating unit was derived in the following manner. First, any unit at a given

plant that actually installed a scrubber is allocated as much high sulfur contract coal as

possible while receiving as little low sulfur contract coal as possible. The reasoning for this

is that a unit with a scrubber will have a larger marginal cost of abatement from switching

fuels (MCAj'" < MCAf'"). Second, any remainder is spread out evenly throughout the

remaining generating units without installed scrubbers. Third, if the equal distribution

results in too much coal for a unit to use in production, the excess coal will be shifted to

a unit that requires a greater total heat input. Fourth, if a plant's coal contracts result

in more heat input than was actually required in production, coal use is capped at the

heat input needed to meet demand. Any remaining coal is considered be remain stored for

future use.









Consider the following example for a plant with three generating units each requiring

200,000 mmBtu of heat input to cover their electricity demand and one unit has a

scrubber. Contracts account for 101' i. of coal purchasing agreements where there are

contracts for 300,000 mmBtu for both high sulfur contract coal and low sulfur contract

coal. Based on the distribution approach described above, Unit 1 will use as much of the

high sulfur coal as possible (200,000 mmBtu) and the remaining high sulfur coal will be

distributed equally among the remaining two units (50,000 mmBtu each for Unit 2 and

Unit 3). The low sulfur coal will be distributed to Unit 2 and Unit 3 equally because

neither has a scrubber installed (150,000 mmBtu each). Since contracts account for 101'.

of coal use, there is no need to purchase any coal on the spot market. If there had been

any excess coal, such as an extra 10,000 mmBtu of low sulfur contact coal, it would not

change the allocation in Table 3-1 and would be considered coal stored at the plant for use

the following year.

Sulfur content is the percentage of each ton of coal, barrel of oil, or 1,000 cubic

feet of natural gas that is sulfur. The data must be manipulated to create the desired

variable, which is pounds of sulfur dioxide per million Btus of heat. Phase I of Title IV

distributes allowance allocations based on 2.5 pounds of SO2 per million Btus of heat. So

fuel is considered "high sulfur" if contains greater then 2.5 lbs. of SO2 per mmBtu and

"low sulfur" if it contains less than 2.5 lbs. of SO2 per mmBtu. Any coal use that has a

higher (lower) sulfur content will increase (decrease) emissions above (below) its allocation

allows.2

Getting the data in terms of pounds of sulfur dioxide per million Btus of heat requires

an emissions factor, which is the amount of sulfur dioxide emissions that will result from

a unit of sulfur. Emissions factors were found in the EIA's "Electric Power Annual 1997".

By taking the sulfur content multiplied by the emissions factor divided by the millions of



2 Coal sulfur content can vary significantly within each category (high or low sulfur).









Btu per unit (ton, 1,000 barrels, or million cubic feet), it results in a parameter in pounds

of sulfur dioxide per million Btu (lbs. SO2/mmBtu).

Although nearly all generating units affected by Phase I were coal-fired units, 24 units

use fuel oil or natural gas for electricity generation. For these units, fuel oil is designated

as high sulfur fuel option while natural gas is designated as the lower sulfur fuel option for

non-coal fired units.

The delivered price is the cents per ton, barrel, or 1,000 cubic feet paid at the time

of delivery. The price includes the purchasing of the fuel and the transportation costs of

shipment. The price is converted to the price of fuel in cents per million Btus. A separate

delivered price is required for both high sulfur and low sulfur fuel, which is a weighted

average of all deliveries of each category of coal. So the high (low) sulfur price used in the

simulations is the weighted average delivered price for all high (low) sulfur coal deliveries.

The parameter used in the simulations is actually dollars per mmBtu, or cents/mmBtu

divided by 100.

Another issue is that not all generating units purchased both high sulfur and low

sulfur fuel. Proxies were required to determine the fuel characteristics facing each unit,

and were first taken from other generating units that were owned by the same company

where available. If a unit did not have another unit under the same company, a proxy

was taken from the geographically closest plant because shipping costs are an important

factor in determining the delivered price. Regional variation in prices will be much smaller

variation in prices across the U.S.

3.6.2.2 Allowance, actual emissions, and demand data

Data for allowance allocation, actual emissions, and electricity demand was found in

the EPA's "1996 Compliance Report". Electricity demand is measured in terms of the

heat input instead of actual megawatt-hours of electricity. For a given unit, there is a

given amount of heat input required to produce one unit of electricity. This linear nature

of electricity production per unit of heat input allows for this simple conversion. For









example, if it requires 1 mmBtu to create 1 MWh of electricity, a unit facing a demand

of 100 MWh would require 100 mmBtu of heat input. Allowance allocations and actual

emissions can be used directly without any manipulation. Actual emissions are used as

the initial allowance allocation allowance banking caused the amount of allowances used

during 1996 be less than the total amount of allocated allowances.

3.6.2.3 Technical generator and scrubber data

Generator nameplate capacity and heat rate data was found in the EIA's "Annual

Generator Data 1996". The heat rate is the amount of heat required to produce one

kilowatt-hour of electricity. Heat rate data unavailable in the 1996 report were gathered

from "Annual Generator Data 1992-1995".

Scrubber cost data was found in the EIA's "Electric Power Annual 1997". The data

was the historical scrubber cost data, including state-by-state average installed costs

per kilowatt of capacity, average operation and maintenance costs in terms of mills per

kilowatt-hour, megawatts of capacity for units with scrubbers installed, and sulfur removal

efficiency.3

The scrubber installation choice is multi-year decision. However, the simulation model

is a one-year model, which makes it necessary to annualize the costs of installing and

operating a scrubber. Scrubber installation costs will differ depending on the scrubber

technology and the size of the generating unit. Total scrubber costs are the discounted

annualized cost of scrubber installation and the operation and maintenance costs for the



3 Engineering-based estimates for scrubber installation and operation costs are an
alternative to historical-based estimates.









given electricity production.4 The chosen discount rate of ten percent and a twenty year

lifespan for capital equipment are the same as in Sotkiewicz and Holt (2005).5

3.6.3 Simulation Model Design

The simulation requires a mixed integer linear program because of the discrete

scrubber choice. The simulation model is coded in Matlab and the linear program is solved

using the open source LP Solve mixed integer linear programming solver. If the scrubber

choice is taken as given, the simulation becomes a simple linear programming model,

which guarantees an equilibrium.

An endogenous scrubber choice creates a non-convexity that may not result in

an allowance market equilibrium. In such a case, there will be either a positive or a

negative excess demand for allowances and an allowance price at which a generating unit

is indifferent to installing a scrubber. This could be considered a "quasi-equilibrium"

where the excess demand is either bought from or sold to an allowance broker at the

"quasi-equilibrium" allowance price. The technical explanation of the bisection iterative

process used to converge to an equilibrium allowance price is described in detail in

Appendix B.

3.6.4 Simulation Results

Seven different generating unit level simulations were run to determine compliance

costs under several sets of conditions depending on the assumptions on the emissions

constraint, contract constraint, and scrubber choice. These simulations are used to derive

the impacts on not only the industry, but also on individual states and generating units.



4 To annualize capital costs, the following equation is used to determine the present
value of the costs: P(+pl l where p is the discount rate and "t" is the number of years the
lifetime of the equipment.

5 The use of historical scrubber cost data will result in different results than engineering
cost estimates because the historical costs for scrubbers in 1996 dollars are cheaper than
engineering estimates for 316 out of 431 units.









3.6.4.1 Total industry costs and allowance market results

The simulation results are used to analyze three key issues: (1) replication of results

from previous studies, (2) the impact contract constraints have on the results from

previous studies, and (3) the "true" compliance costs resulting from the Title IV program.

Simulations 1, 3, and 4 recreate the results from previous studies while Simulations 2, 5,

and 6 introduce the contract constraints to the model. Simulation 7 derives industry costs

based on actual compliance choices.

First, consider the ability of the simulation models to recreate the results from

previous studies. Simulation 1 recreates the unconstrained cost-minimization results

from Sotkiewicz (2003) and Sotkiewicz and Holt (2005). There were 17 scrubbers that

were installed as a result of the New Source Performance Standards (NSPS) and were

unrelated to Title IV. Assuming these scrubbers as given, the total costs to the industry

of meeting electricity demand were $7.69 billion. These costs will be used as the baseline

total industry costs to determine total industry compliance costs comparable to previous

studies.

Simulation 3 recreates the emissions constrained results from Sotkiewicz and Holt

(2005) assuming the 46 scrubbers that were installed in 1996 as given. The simulation

results in an allowance price of $149.64, which exactly replicates the allowance price found

by Sotkiewicz (2003) and Sotkiewicz and Holt (2005). Total industry costs are $8.23

billion where 29 scrubbers were actually installed in response to Title IV. The difference

between Simulation 3 and Simulation 1 is the total industry compliance costs of meeting

the emissions constraint, which is $541 million and similar to the results found in previous









studies.6 Carlson et al. (2000) and Sotkiewicz and Holt (2005) found the least cost

outcome to be $571 million and -. '7 million, respectively.7

Simulation 4 recreates the emissions constrained results from Sotkiewicz (2003) that

allows a generating unit's scrubber choice to be endogenous. The model assumes the 17

scrubbers installed to meet the NSPS, but allows generating units to make the scrubber

installation choice. The simulation results in an allowance price of $155.58. Total industry

costs are $7.97 billion, where 27 scrubbers were installed in response to Title IV (42

scrubbers total). Allowing generating units to make their scrubber installation choice

results in two fewer installed scrubbers, which may explain the slightly higher PJ because

fewer scrubbers will decrease supply and increase demand for allowances. The difference

between Simulation 4 and Simulation 1 is the total industry compliance costs of meeting

the emissions constraint, which is lower than the costs found in Simulation 3 at --'%N

million. The results are comparable to the $340 million found in Sotkiewicz (2003). As

expected, freedom in the scrubber choice improves efficiency and lowers total industry

compliance costs by -"-'" million, or 47'. lower than in Simulation 3.

The allowance market does not clear in Simulation 4 because generating units are

allowed to make their scrubber choice. The discrete nature of scrubber installation leads

to a non-negative excess demand. However, the excess supply of 53,576 allowances in

Simulation 4 account for less than 1 of the 5+ million allowance market and could

be assumed to be banked for future use or sold to an allowance broker, which could be

considered a quasi-equilibrium.



6 The value slightly differs relative to the results from Sotkiewicz (2003) and Sotkiewicz
and Holt (2005) because the scrubber cost estimates in this study have higher estimated
variable operating costs.

7 Burtraw et al. (2005) and Sotkiewicz and Holt (2005)









Second, consider how fuel contract constraints will impact the total industry

compliance costs. Simulation 5 introduces fuel contract constraints to the the emissions

constrained model assuming the 46 scrubbers installed as in Simulation 3. The simulation

results in a higher allowance price of I_'il. 70, which could be the result of a greater

demand for allowances due to more high sulfur coal use resulting from high sulfur coal

contracts. Total industry costs are $8.76 billion, where 29 scrubbers were installed in

response to Title IV. Assuming these scrubber choices, the minimum compliance costs

relative to the unconstrained model in Simulation 1 are $1.07 billion, or $531 million

('-I'.) higher than if contracts are not taken into consideration.

Simulation 6 introduces fuel contract constraints to the the emissions constrained

model while allowing generating units to make their scrubber choice. The simulation

results in an allowance price of $210.74. Total industry costs are $8.63 billion where 44

scrubbers are installed in response to Title IV. The minimum compliance costs when

compared to Simulation 1 are $939 million, or -.'I,1 million higher than if contracts are not

taken into consideration. The minimum compliance costs are close to the actual cost found

in Sotkiewicz and Holt (2005) at $990 million and Carlson et al. (2000) at $910 million.

Allowing generating units to choose whether to install a scrubber allows the industry

to lower its total costs by $132 million. As would be expected, introducing the contract

constraint results in more scrubber installations due to Title IV from 27 to 44 because

high-sulfur fuel contracts increase the incentive for a constrained generating unit to install

a scrubber. As in Simulation 4, the allowance market does not clear due to the discrete,

endogenous scrubber choice. However, the excess demand of 7,797 allowances account for

less than 0."' of the 5+ million allowance market, and could be assumed to be bought

from an allowance broker.

The actual total industry compliance costs are found in Simulation 7. By using

the actual emissions and electricity production for each unit, it is possible to determine

each unit's actual coal mix. These actual decisions resulted in an allowance price range









of 8.'1.33-4'1.38 during 1996, total industry costs of $8.98 billion, and total industry

compliance costs of $1.30 billion relative to Simulation 1. If the contract constraints

are excluded from the model and the actual costs are compared to Simulation 3 and

Simulation 4, the excess compliance costs are $757 million and $1.01 billion, respectively.

However, including the contract constraint into the model results in excess compliance

costs of $226 million and :.8 million. Contract constraints explain -'. ;1 million and ,

million of excess compliance costs, respectively.

Third, the "true" compliance costs will differ from these estimates because the

appropriate baseline was not used. As shown analytically in Section 4, comparing

Simulation 5 and Simulation 6 to Simulation 1 is not the most appropriate measure

of compliance costs. The contract constraints should be included in both the baseline

simulation and the policy-restricted simulation. Simulation 2 runs the same model as

in Simulation 1 except that it includes contract constraints and results in total industry

costs of $8.27 billion. The difference between total industry costs in Simulation 1 and

Simulation 2 are the additional costs due to contract constraints, which are $582 million.

These additional costs would have resulted with or without the SO2 Trading Program

and should not be considered compliance costs. This is a key result because these costs

were labeled compliance costs by previous studies even though these costs are a result of

generating units locking in prices to protect from the uncertainty of higher coal prices in

the future.

By comparing results in Simulation 5 to Simulation 2, the minimum compliance costs

considering contracts and given the scrubber choice are found to be $490.1 million. "True"

minimum compliance costs are much lower ("1 10 million lower) once this additional

constraint is included in the model. In Simulation 6, the "true" minimum compliance costs

are 7- ;:..8 million, or $581.6 million less than if contracts are excluded from the model.

These are similar to the least-cost results found by Sotkiewicz (2003) at $340- 2-'7 million,

Sotkiewicz and Holt (2005) at $423-$553 million, and Carlson et al. (2000) at $571 million.









Although actual industry compliance costs are higher than the least-cost results at $716

million, these compliance costs are lower than the compliance costs found in Sotkiewicz

(2003) and Sotkiewicz and Holt (2005) at $990 million and Carlson et al. (2000) at $910

million. Contract constraints appear to explain some of the excess compliance costs found

in previous studies, which implies that generating units' decisions were more cost-effective

than previously stated in the literature.

3.6.4.2 Industry and generating unit coal use

By comparing coal use in Simulation 5 to that in Simulation 3, the impact of contract

constraints assuming scrubbers as given can be derived. Simulation 3 uses a total of

2,607,025,040 mmBtu of high sulfur coal (40.7' ) and 3,794,557,150 mmBtu of low sulfur

coal (59.;:'. ). Simulation 5 uses a total of 2,041,933,640 mmBtu of high sulfur coal (31.9' .)

and 4,359,648,550 mmBtu of low sulfur coal (68.1 .). Introducing contract constraints into

the model results in a" '. decrease in high sulfur coal relative to Simulation 3. Contract

constraints results in less high sulfur coal than would have otherwise been preferred.

Contract constraints led to 16 units (3.7'. of affected units) using a suboptimal coal

combination. 15 of the 16 units had 1(1C' of its coal use altered. Only 2 of these units had

an increase in high sulfur coal.

Simulation 4 uses a total of 2,651,410,732 mmBtu of high sulfur coal (41. !',) and

3,750,168,009 mmBtu of low sulfur coal (58..', ). Simulation 6 uses a total of 2,614,773,732

mmBtu of high sulfur coal (411 -',) and 3,786,804,109 mmBtu of low sulfur coal (59.2'.).

Including contract constraints into the model results in a 0..' decrease in high sulfur

coal relative to Simulation 4. Overall coal use does not appear to have been significantly

altered. However, this does not tell the whole story. Contract constraints led to 27 units

(6.;:'. of affected units) using a suboptimal coal combination. 5 of the 27 units had a

change of at least '- of coal use and 15 of the 27 had at least a 50', change in coal use.

14 of the 27 units had an increase in high sulfur coal use while 13 units had an decrease

of high sulfur coal use. The concern with the contracts is not necessarily that the entire









industry choices are shifted, but that individual generating units are not able to make

their cost-minimizing choices.

3.6.4.3 Generating unit scrubber installation choices

There are three issues to consider regarding generating units' scrubber choices: (1)

impacts from the endogenous scrubber choice without contract constraints, (2) impacts

from the endogenous scrubber choice with contract constraints, and (3) impact of contract

constraints on scrubber choices. First, comparing scrubber installations in Simulation 4 to

Simulation 3 will show how scrubber decisions would be altered if the scrubber decision

is made endogenous and contract constraints are excluded from the model. Allowing the

scrubber choice to be endogenous results in 48 generating units altering their scrubber

choice, including 25 scrubbers to be removed and 23 to be added for a total of 2 fewer

installed scrubbers. 21 generating units maintain the same scrubber choices, but 17 of

those were installed for NSPS. So only 4 scrubber choices remained the same.

Second, comparing scrubber installations in Simulation 6 to Simulation 5 will show

how scrubber decisions would be altered if the scrubber decision is made endogenous

and contract constraints are included in the model. Allowing the scrubber choice to be

endogenous results in 53 generating units altering their scrubber choice, including 19

scrubbers to be removed and 34 to be added for a total of 15 more installed scrubbers. 27

generating units maintain the same scrubber choices, but 17 of those were installed for

NSPS. So 10 scrubber installations remained the same.

Finally, it is important to consider the impacts contract constraints have on a

unit's endogenous scrubber installation decision, which can be determined by comparing

Simulation 6 to Simulation 4. 33 scrubber choices are altered as a result of contract

constraints, including 25 units that will now install a scrubber and 8 units that no longer

install a scrubber. Of the 25 units that chose to install a scrubber, 20 of them had a high

sulfur coal contract. Of the 8 units that chose to not install a scrubber, all 8 of them

had a low sulfur coal contract. So 28 of 33 scrubber choices appear to have been directly









impacts by contract constraints. As can be seen in Table 3-4, contract constraints increase

scrubber installations in Ohio, Alabama, Florida, Indiana, Mississippi, and Missouri and

decrease scrubber installations in West Virginia, New York, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin,

Georgia, Kentucky, and New Jersey.

An unexpected result in Simulation 6 is that scrubber installations actually increase

relative to Simulation 5. These are likely a result of the assumed scrubber cost estimates

because the historical scrubber cost data used in the simulations is lower than the

engineering cost estimates. Scrubbers appear cheaper to install than the engineering

estimates state. Of the 404 generating units with at least a 911'. removal rate, 31 historical

capital cost estimates are higher, 84 are the same, and 289 are lower than the estimated

engineering capital costs.8 The higher cost estimates are not much higher than the

engineering costs with a difference of $11/kW. However, the historical capital cost

estimates that are lower than the engineering capital cost estimates range from $50/kW

to $216/kW higher, which could have some significant impacts on scrubber installation

choices. For example, historical capital cost estimates for generating units in Mizzouri are

assumed to be $50/kW while the engineering cost estimates are assumed to be $266/kW,

or a 43 difference.

As can be seen in Table 3-5, there is a significant difference in scrubber installations.

The use of engineering cost estimates for scrubber installation results in a decrease in

scrubber installations from 44 to 25 in Simulation 4 and from 61 to 38 in Simulation 6

because of the higher costs involved. Notice that introducing contract constraints results

in additional scrubber installations from 25 to 38, which is close to the actual installations

of 46 scrubbers. Compliance cost interpretations remain similar to simulations using



8 27 of the generating units are not directly comparable because historical data (50'".
removal rate) assumes a different scrubber technology than the engineering data (9, '.
removal rate).









historical scrubber cost estimate data, with compliance costs slightly higher for all

simulations.

3.6.4.4 Impact of allowance allocation on the allowance market and compli-
ance costs

The impacts of altering the initial allowance allocation are as would be expected.

Fewer available allowances forces the industry to produce fewer emissions, which will

result in a higher allowance price, more scrubber installations, and higher total industry

compliance costs. A decrease in the initial allowance allocation by 1(1'. leads to an

increase in the number of installed scrubbers by 17 in Simulation 4 and 12 in Simulation

6, an increase in the equilibrium allowance price of 33.85 in Simulation 4 and $11.48 in

Simulation 6, and an increase in the total industry compliance costs increase by $93.6

million (:-':) in Simulation 4 and $118.8 million ( :'.,) in Simulation 6.9 Contract

constraints restrict compliance options, which will lead to fewer compliance choice changes,

which leads to less of an impact on both scrubber installations and the allowance market.

However, restricting compliance options also leads to the higher compliance costs to meet

the additional emissions reduction.

3.6.4.5 Summary of simulation results

Contract constraints appear to explain a large portion of the "excess" compliance

costs found in the previous studies. Much of these excess costs would have occurred with

or without the program due to the contract restrictions, and therefore are not actually

compliance costs. These results find that firms' compliance choices appear to be more

cost-effective than previously thought because previous work has ignored a key restriction

on a generating unit's freedom in compliance options.



9 The results are not reliant on how the 1(1'. reduction in initial allowance allocation
occurs because the distribution of the allocation will not alter compliance decisions.









The "true" compliance costs to the industry appear to be lower relative to the

previous compliance cost estimates. Actual compliance decisions resulted in total

industry compliance costs that were higher than the least cost choices given the contract

constraints ($226 million compared to Simulation 5 and :.S million compared to

Simulation 6).

3.7 Plant Level Decision-Making Process

3.7.1 Introduction

The generating unit model in C'! plter 2 does not account for the fact that two

or more generating units are often owned and operated by one firm at the same plant.

A plant's decision-making process may not minimize costs for each generating unit

because a plant's concern is based on the combined costs of all generating units under

its operational control. This model derives the plant level problem, which allows us to

analyze differences in high versus low sulfur coal, spot versus contract coal, allowance

excess demand, scrubber installation, and the positioning of contract coal use based on the

different generating unit characteristics at a particular plant.

A plant level decision-making model is more realistic than a generating unit level

model to determine compliance decisions because coal deliveries are made at the plant

level where there are often multiple generating units. All generating units at that plant

facing the same coal use options, including sulfur contents, heat contents, and delivered

prices for both spot market and contract coal. The contract constraints become more

complex in this model where the sum of contract coal use for all generating units at a

plant must cover the contract requirement, 7 1 Cf > Cf Vi E {1, 2, ..., }. A plant

with multiple units has greater degrees of freedom in it's choices as to what fuel types to

purchase, in what quantities, and at which unit to burn the fuel based on their emissions,

demand, and coal contract constraints. The improved freedom in choice variables should

lead to lower compliance costs.









Some anecdotal evidence of these cost savings is seen in a comparison of the 46

generating units that had scrubbers installed in 1996. Of those units, 37 units are each

located at a plant that did not operate a generating unit that did not have a scrubber

installed. The remaining 9 generating units were each located at a plant that operated

at least one other generating unit that did not install a scrubber. By comparing the

average excess compliance costs (in percentage terms), it is possible to see how having at

least one additional generating unit at a plant improves its abilities to lower compliance

costs. For the generating units located at a plant without an additional generating unit

without a scrubber had average excess compliance costs of 6 '' above the unit's minimum

compliance costs. Generating units at a plant with at least one additional generating unit

that did not install a scrubber had average excess compliance costs of 2 '. above the

unit's minimum compliance costs.

Three additional factors will be of great importance at the plant level. First, plants

are able to trade allowances between generating units as needed to cover emissions

at no additional costs. The literature has stated that trading allowances between its

units at the same plant has been a common occurrence, which supports the use of a

model that considers decisions at the plant level instead of the generating unit level.10

Second, another aspect to consider is the choice to install a scrubber, which is based on

the characteristics of all the units at a plant, not just the unit at which the scrubber

may be installed. Third, a plant's decisions become more complex if it has one or more

"unaffected" units.

A plant may have one or more generating units at its location that are not affected

by Phase I and does not have to meet any emissions requirements. Owning a non-affected



10 Montero (1996)










unit allows greater freedom in coal use and may greatly alter a plant's preferred

compliance options.11

Plants must consider the total combined costs over all generating units, which

may lead to plant level decisions that are contrary to a specific generating unit's

cost-minimizing choice. A plant may be able to lower total costs by increasing the costs at

one generating unit to save money at other units.

3.7.2 Plant-Level Problem

A plant solves the following problem. The subscript "i" represents a specific

generating unit for each operating plant while "n" represents the number of generating

units owned by the plant.


mm n
zACmin ,PCCC
i]1
subject to...A + Ai > (1


i= 1
n




'I > C
il
i= 1
zi E {0, 1}

Ch, ,'i > 0

i G {1,..., n}


The Lagrange multiplier on a generating unit's emissions constraint is represented by Ail.

The Lagrange multiplier on a generating unit's demand constraint is represented by Ai2.

Coal contract constraints require a plant to use a minimum amount of each contract coal




11 Due to the design of the policy with "compensation" provision, a plant can shift
coal use, but not electricity production to a non-affected unit without the unit being
incorporated into the program.









type, C- for high sulfur coal and CU for low sulfur coal. The amount of contract coal at

a generating unit is a choice variable because a plant is able to choose which generating

unit to use its allotted contract coal. The Lagrange multiplier of each contract coal type is

represented by Ph for high sulfur coal and p, for low sulfur coal.

3.7.3 First-Order Conditions

The partial derivative with respect to Ai yields the impact of a one unit change in its

net allowance position on the unit's total costs.


PA Ail 0 (3-46)


Since Ai can be either positive or negative based on the net allowance position, (3-46) will

hold with equality. The additional cost to the firm of emitting one more ton of emissions is

equivalent to the allowance price, Ai = PA, which is the same result as from the previous

models.

The partial derivative with respect to C[ represents the impact a one unit change in

high sulfur spot market coal has on the unit's total costs.


Ph + Ai(li zri)(m)(S)() Ai2H, > 0, 0 if Ch > 0 (3-47)


If the generating unit uses some amount of high sulfur spot market coal (C[ > 0), then

(3-47) holds with equality.

The partial derivative with respect to C1 represents the impact a one unit change in

low sulfur spot market coal has on the unit's total costs.


PI + Ail(l zzri)(m)(SS ) Ai2 H > 0, 0 if Ci > 0 (3-48)

Similar to high sulfur spot market coal, if the generating unit uses some low sulfur spot

market coal (Cu > 0), then (3-48) holds with equality.









The partial derivative with respect to C represents the impact a one unit change in

high sulfur contract coal has on the unit's total costs.


c + A(il ziri)(m)(S) Ai2h- > 0, 0 if C > 0 (3-49)


Unlike with high sulfur spot market coal, high sulfur contract coal will be impacted by the

high sulfur coal contract constraint (ph). If the generating unit uses some amount of high

sulfur contract coal (Cc > 0), then (3-49) holds with equality.

The partial derivative with respect to Cf represents the impact a one unit change in

low sulfur contract coal has on the unit's total costs.


Pf + A1(1 ziri)(rm)(S) Ai2fHi- 1 > 0, 0 if Cf, > 0 (3-50)

Unlike with low sulfur spot market coal, low sulfur contract coal will be impacted by

the low sulfur coal contract constraint (pi). Similar to high sulfur contract coal, if the

generating unit uses some low sulfur contract coal (C, > 0), then (3-50) holds with

equality.

3.7.4 Characterizing a Unit's Spot Market Fuel Choices

A plant's choice of fuel type for a given generating unit is not only based on the

plant's marginal cost of abatement relative to the allowance price, but also the plant's

scrubber installation choice for each individual unit. For this section, we assume that the

scrubber choice is given and focus solely on a generating unit's marginal cost of abatement

and the allowance price, excluding the use of contract coal. The interaction of choices

for the use of contract coal, the consideration of multiple generating units, and scrubber

choice will be discussed later. As in previous models, three cases must be considered:

a generating unit uses both high and low sulfur spot market coal, only high sulfur spot

market coal, and only low sulfur spot market coal.









3.7.4.1 Case 1: Necessary conditions for using both high sulfur and low sulfur
spot market coal

Assume that demand for each generating unit is given and a generating unit chooses

to use both high sulfur and low sulfur spot market coal (Cf, > 0 and C, > 0), which

implies that both (3-47) and (3-48) hold with equality. The additional costs to the

generating unit of using one more unit of low sulfur spot market coal is equal to the

additional costs of using one more unit of high sulfur spot market coal.


Ps + A(l r)(m ) -zh(S) -2H Pl + Ail(1 ziri)(n)(S/) i2H (3 51)

Since both (3-47) and (3-48) hold with equality, it is possible to find an expression

for (Ai2) in each equation and set the two expressions equal to each other and derive the

allowance shadow price (Ail) in (3-52).


= PA il MCA s (3 52)
(1- zir)(Tn)( 18 (3-52)
Hh VI

As discussed earlier, the allowance shadow price (Ail)is an expression for a generating

unit's Marginal Cost of Abatement from Switching from high sulfur spot market to low

sulfur spot market coal (MCA'"8). From (3-46), we also know that the actual allowance

price equals the allowance shadow price (PA Ail). As can be seen in (3-52), the

allowance price (PA) equals to the marginal cost of abatement (MCA"'8), which is the

increase in coal costs from switching from high sulfur spot to low sulfur spot market coal

per unit of reduced emissions.

The marginal costs of abatement may or may not differ across generating units. If a

plant does not install any scrubbers, then MCA'" = MCA7'" V{i,j} for all generating

units and the plant's choices will be identical to the generating units' decisions in Section

5. This can be seen in (3-52) where the only way that the marginal costs of abatement

can differ across generating units is through the scrubber choice and a scrubber's emissions

capture rate. If all generating units at a given plant both install a scrubber where ri = rj,









then MCA'" = MCA"'". Once again the plants' choices will be identical to the generating

units' choices made in Section 5.

Marginal costs of abatement will only differ across generating units at a plant if

(1) a plant installs a scrubber at some but not all of its generating units, or (2) a plant

installs a scrubber at all its generating units but the scrubbers have different capture rates

(ri / rj 3{i,j}). We will introduce the scrubber choice, and derive its impact on a plant's
choices later.

3.7.4.2 Case 2: Necessary conditions for only high sulfur spot market coal use

If a generating unit chooses to use only high sulfur spot market coal (Cj' > 0), then

(3-47) holds with equality and (3-48) holds with weak inequality resulting in (3-53).


Ps + Ai(l zri)(m)(S) AH < Pl + Ail ( zr) m)r(ST) AH (3-53)


Equation (3-53) states that additional costs to the generating unit of using one more

unit of high sulfur spot market coal is weakly less than or equal to the additional costs

of using one more unit of low sulfur spot market coal inclusive of emissions and demand

requirements.

Following Section 6.4.1 we can derive the relation of PA to MCA7'". By comparing

these two expressions and solving for Ai2, you get an inequality comparing Ail = PA and

MCA"'". Since the generating unit uses high sulfur spot market coal, the allowance price

is weakly less than the marginal cost of abatement (PA < MCA"'j) as shown in (3-54).
ps ps
SPA < MCA"s H-f (3-54)
(1 ziri) (m) ( )


3.7.4.3 Case 3: Necessary conditions for only low sulfur spot market coal use

Similarly to the above case, if a generating unit chooses to use only low sulfur spot

market coal (Cf > 0), then (3-47) holds with equality and (3-48) hold with weak

inequality resulting in (3-55). The additional costs to the generating unit of using one









more unit of low sulfur spot market coal is weakly less than or equal to the additional

costs of using one more unit of high sulfur spot market coal inclusive of emissions and

demand requirements.


P i + A,(l ziri)(m)(S) Ai2H > P8 + Ai(l zir)(m)(S) AX2H (3-55)

Once again we can derive the relation of PA to MCA'"8. By comparing these two

expressions and solving for Ai2, you get an inequality comparing Ai = PA and MCA'".

Since the generating unit uses low sulfur spot market coal, the allowance price is weakly

greater than the marginal cost of abatement (PA > MCA"'8) as shown in (3-56).
ps ,ps

= PA > MCA's -Hf (3-56)



3.7.5 Excess Demand Correspondence

When only considering the use of spot market coal (no contract constraints), a unit's

excess demand correspondence will look nearly identical to the correspondence in ('!i plter

2. The minimum and maximum excess demand for allowances can be derived for each of

the three cases described above in the same manner as in C'!i plter 2.

First, if a generating unit faces PA < MCA"'j it will use the maximum amount of

high sulfur spot market coal. The maximum amount of high sulfur spot market coal is

expressed in (3-57).

C8 MAX (3 57)
h ih

Replacing CQ in (3-41) with the expression in (3-57) for Ck',MAX gives an expression

for the maximum allowance excess demand in (3-58). A generating unit's maximum

excess demand must cover the difference between its initial allowance allocation (Ar)

and the amount of allowances needed to cover the unit's maximum actual emissions
[EMAX (1 X)(m)(SnZ)S)( )].


A AX = EAX Ae (358)









If a generating unit faces PA > MCA"'8, it will use the maximum amount of low

sulfur spot market coal, which can be found from (3-41). Assuming only low sulfur spot

market coal use to meet demand, the maximum amount of low sulfur coal is expressed in

(3-59).
S- (3-59)

Replacing C i in (3-41) with the expression in (3-59) for C~,M gives an expression
for the minimum allowance excess demand in (3-60). A generating unit's minimum

excess demand must cover the difference between its initial allowance allocation (Ar)

and the amount of allowances needed to cover the unit's minimum actual emissions

[EJMIN ziri) (m)(Sl) ( )]. If a unit's initial allocation can cover its minimum

possible emissions, then it will have a negative net allowance position and be a net buyer

seller of allowances.
AMIN EMIN A (3-60)

If PA = MCA"'8, a generating unit may use any combination of high sulfur spot

market coal and low sulfur spot market coal and lead to any level of excess demand in the

range (E MIN A', EMAX A). The allowance excess demand can be represented by

A = (pEMAX (1 p)EIN A) where the constant p [0,1]. A unit that is indifferent

between fuel switching and allowances purchasing could be either a net buyer or a net

seller.

Combining the excess demands for each of the three cases creates the excess demand

correspondence shown below.

A AX if PA > MCAj',
Ai = pAAX (1 p)AMIN if PA MCA' Vp e [0,1]

A^IN if PA < MCA7',

A generating unit's excess demand correspondence can be seen graphically in Chapter 2.

High sulfur coal use corresponds to the right-hand vertical line where PA < MCA"'8. Low









sulfur coal use corresponds to the left-hand vertical line where PA > MCA"'8. The case

where a generating unit uses some combination of low sulfur coal and high sulfur coal is

represented by the horizontal line at which PA = MCA"'.

3.7.6 Characterizing a Generating Unit's Contract Fuel Choices

Unlike in the generating unit-level model, contracted coal is not treated the same

as spot market coal. It is not possible to simply require a certain amount of high or

low sulfur contract coal use because the use of contract coal is a choice variable at the

generating unit level.

The use of contract coal will be based on the relative marginal costs of using contract

coal at each generating unit operated by a plant. A plant will choose to use contract coal

at the generating unit that will result in the lowest increase in the plant's total costs. To

make these cost comparisons, it is necessary to derive the marginal costs of abatement

for the given combination of spot and contract coal and compare them across generating

units. Initially we will ignore a plant's scrubber choice for each generating unit and a

plant makes the same choice for all its generating units (zi = zj = 0, or zi = zj = 1 and

ri = rj). Under these conditions, the marginal costs of abatement are identical across all

generating units, and it does not matter at which of these generating units the contract

coal is used. This will be shown separately for both a high sulfur and low sulfur coal

contract because the use of high sulfur contract coal is independent of low sulfur contract

coal and visa versa.

3.7.6.1 Case 1: Necessary conditions for high sulfur contract coal use at
Generating Unit "i"

We first consider a plant with a high sulfur coal contract. We can derive the marginal

cost of abatement of switching fuels from high sulfur contract coal to low sulfur spot

market coal in (3-61). The marginal cost of abatement from switching from high sulfur

contract coal to low sulfur spot market coal (MCAf'") will be the same for all generating

units that make the same scrubber installation choice (zi), including the same scrubber









technology with the same capture rate (ri).


Ph + Ail( iri) (m)(Sh) + Ai2H P =- Pl + Ail ( ziri) (m) (S) + Ai2HS
Ph
= Ail MCAc, + h S- SS (3-61)
(t )iri)(mT)(H I^ -
All units at which a plant does not install a scrubber have the same marginal cost

of abatement of switching from high sulfur contract coal to low sulfur spot market coal

(MCA'" = MCAS'"). Also all units at a plant that install a scrubber with the same

capture rate will have identical MCAc'".

3.7.6.2 Case 2: Necessary conditions for low sulfur contract coal use at
generating unit "i"

Second, derive the marginal cost of abatement of switching fuels from high sulfur

spot market coal to low sulfur contract coal in (3-62). The MCA"'c will be the same for

all generating units that make the same scrubber installation choice, including the same

scrubber technology with the same capture rate.


P + AI(1 zr)(m)(S) + A2H= Pc + Ai1( z)(m)(S) + A2H -
II1
= A A MCAs -( H_- (3-62)
(tl-S)(n)( S

All units at which a plant does not install a scrubber have the same marginal cost

of abatement of switching from high sulfur spot market coal to low sulfur contract coal

(MCA',c = MCA`'). Also all units at a plant that install a scrubber with the same

capture rate will have identical MCA'.

3.7.7 "Non-Affected" Generating Units at an "Affected" Plant

So far it has been assumed that all generating units operated by a plant are all

"affected" units, meaning that all units face an emissions compliance constraint as a result

of Phase I. However, there are 27 plants (out of 160 total plants) that have both i1!. i ., I"









and "non-affected"units.12 Now we will introduce generating units that are not "Phase I

affected" into a plant's decision-making process.

The emissions constraint does not bind (Ail = 0) for these units, which means that

"non-affected" generating units will prefer to use the coal type with the lowest delivered

price. For most plants this will be high sulfur coal, particularly those located in the

Eastern U.S.

3.7.7.1 Characterization of "non-affected" generating units at an "affected"
plant

The first-order conditions from Section 7.3 will no longer be dependent on the

emissions for a non-affected unit because the emissions constraint will never bind (Ail

0), as can be seen in (3-63) and (3-64).


OL
C P, \A H > 0, 0 if C, > 0 (363)

and
AL
Oct P' Ai2H > 0, 0 if Ci, > 0 (3-64)

Assuming that a generating unit uses both high and low sulfur spot market coal, we

use (3-63) and (3-64) to derive (3-65). If a generating unit uses both high and low sulfur

spot market coal, then the price per unit of heat input is equal for both coal types. A

plant will no longer make it's generating unit level fuel choices based on its marginal cost

of abatement because it no longer is concerned about abating emissions.


h 8 (3-65)
Hh8 H8

By using the first-order conditions, we can determine when a generating unit will only

use one type of spot market coal. If a generating unit uses only high sulfur spot market



12 Source: www.eia.doe.gov, "Existing Generating Units in the United States by State,
Co_,l_, iw,, and Plant, 2003" database.









coal, then (3-63) holds with equality and (3-64) remains weakly greater than zero and low
ps ps
sulfur coal is weakly more expensive (Hh < H). If a generating unit uses only low sulfur

spot market coal, then (3-64) holds with equality and (3-63) remains weakly greater than
p s s
zero and high sulfur spot market coal is more expensive ( > 1).

3.7.7.2 "Non-affected" generating units and high sulfur coal contracts

Now consider how these non-affected units will impact a plant's coal use choices for

its generating units. This is one issue that will only impact plants under Phase I because

only the dirtiest units are affected while under Phase II and CAIR all generating units

in the U.S. are affected units. There is only a concern with Phase I where most units

preferred to switch from high to low sulfur coal. So assume a plant faces a high sulfur coal

contract.

First, assume that two generating units (Unit "i" and Unit "j") are both affected

units. A plant will be indifferent to using high sulfur contract coal at either unit when the

first-order conditions for using high sulfur contract coal are equal across generating units.


PhC + AiA(1 z ri)(Tm)(SA) A2 P + A(1 zr)(m)(S) hj2H -


= Ai(l ziri)(mn)(S) A\i2H= Ai(l- zr)(m)(S) Aja2H (3-66)

Now assume that Unit "i" is an affected unit and its emissions constraint binds (Ail > 0)

while Unit "j" is not affected and the emissions constraint will not bind (Aj = 0). Under

this condition, the additional costs of using high sulfur contract coal at an affected unit is

greater than at a non-affected unit.


Ph + Ai(l ziri)(m)(S) ) Ai2H Ph > Ph Aj2H Ph


= Ai( ziri)()(SA) Ai2Hh > -Aj2H

== Ai(1 ziri)(Tm)(S) > 0 (3-67)









Consider a simple example where a plant operates two generating units, one that

is affected (Unit "i") and another that is not affected (Unit "j") by Phase I of Title IV.

Assume P < which is normally the case under Phase I.13 Furthermore, the plant
h I
prefers to switch from high sulfur coal to low sulfur coal to meet its emissions requirement

for Unit i because PA > MCA"'8. But the plant also has a high sulfur coal contract for

a small amount of high sulfur coal (Cc < ) that has identical characteristics to high

sulfur spot market coal. The plant must choose at which generating unit to use the high

sulfur contract coal. Since plant prefers to use low sulfur coal to lower its emissions at

Unit "i" and prefers to use high sulfur coal at Unit "j" to minimize its coal costs, then

the plant's contract will not bind and will not increase a plant's total costs. Alternatively,

if Unit "j" was an affected unit and PA > MCA"'7, a high sulfur contract would bind

and result in higher total costs for the plant. A non-affected unit will weakly decrease a

plant's total costs relative to if the unit WAS affected. High sulfur coal can be shifted to

the unaffected unit to relax the emissions constraint.

3.7.8 Scrubber Installation Choice

Up to this point, we have assumed a plant's scrubber choice for a generating unit

as given. Now consider a plant's scrubber installation choice for a given generating unit.

A plant chooses to use contract coal in different generating units depending on whether

it has installed a scrubber at the particular generating unit. The choice is based on the

scrubber choices because it is the only variable that can change the marginal cost of

abatement across a plant's generating units.

3.7.8.1 Marginal cost of abatement with and without a scrubber

Finding the allowance price at which a generating unit will install a scrubber is not as

simple as in the generating unit model because a plant must take into account the costs of



13 Over i .'-. of generating units had higher delivered prices for low sulfur coal than high
sulfur coal on the spot market.









all units when choosing to install a scrubber. The marginal cost of abatement for all coal

types has already been derived. Now the MCAi for each coal combination both with and

without a scrubber can be derived. The only way the marginal cost of abatement can vary

across generating units is through the scrubber choice (zi and ri).

First, consider the marginal cost of abatement of switching from high sulfur spot

market coal to low sulfur spot market coal (MCA7'") with a scrubber in (3-68), and

compare it to the marginal cost of abatement without a scrubber in (3-69). As in '!i lpter

2, a scrubber decreases the savings from switching spot market fuels because a scrubber

causes the emissions reduction to be smaller than without a scrubber.
P Ph'
h I
Ail MCAs- I h (3-68)
(tl- r )(T )( S1
P18 Ph,

AiR MCAs ? H h (3-69)
(mn)() )

Second, consider the marginal cost of abatement of switching from high sulfur

contract coal to low sulfur spot market coal (MCAA'") with a scrubber in (3-70), and

compare it to the marginal cost of abatement without a scrubber in (3-71). As in the case

of only spot market coal, installing a scrubber decreases the savings from switching fuels.

In the case of a high sulfur contract, it is less costly to a plant to use high sulfur coal at a

particular generating unit if it has a scrubber.
Ph
H
= Ail MCAS + H s (3 70)
(1- rt)(m)(' ITT

Ph
H
= Al = MCAs + sh (3-71)
h I
Third, consider the marginal cost of abatement of switching from high sulfur spot

market coal to low sulfur contract coal (MCA'c) with a scrubber in (3-72), and compare

it to the marginal cost of abatement without a scrubber in (3-73). As in the two cases

above, installing a scrubber decreases the savings from switching fuels. In the case of a low









sulfur contract, it is more costly to a plant to use low sulfur coal at a particular generating

unit if it has a scrubber.


SAi =- MCA'c- Hi (3-72)



SAil MCAc H (3-73)
h I
For each combination of coal types, installing a scrubber decreases the size of the

denominator, which increases MCAi. As in C'! lpter 2, a scrubber greatly decreases the

savings from switching fuels. A higher MCA, increases the range of allowance prices at

which a plant will prefer to purchase allowances instead of switching fuels by lowering the

price at which a generating unit will be indifferent between purchasing allowances and

switching from high sulfur to low sulfur coal. Any unit operated by a plant that has a

scrubber will have a larger marginal cost of abatement than any unit without a scrubber

(MCAi > MCAj).

3.7.9 A Plant's Preferred Order of Scrubber Installation

Given a plant chooses to install a scrubber, it will install the scrubber at the

generating unit at which it will get the greatest "bang-for-the-buck", which will be the

generating unit with the lowest average cost of abatement through scrubber installation

(ACAi). A generating unit will have the lowest ACAi if the cost of a scrubber per ton of
emissions reduction (ACAi -= P (sc s scs cc) is lower than all other generating
Tmri (ssgqs+Shq+sI Chc +sC )
units operated by a plant. Give the same coal use ratio (percent of coal use for each coal

category), the price per unit of heat or price per unit of reduced emissions only vary based

on total demand (D{ = Ch + Cih + Ci + Ch) because "m" and "r," are constants. In other

words, scrubber installation will be based on the average cost for scrubber installation per

unit of demand (ACAi = -).
Di /
The decision is based solely on a unit's ACAi because the marginal costs of

abatement are equal across generating units with no scrubbers installed at the plant.









Following along the same thought process, if a plant chooses to install a scrubber at two

generating units, the scrubbers will be installed at the generating units with the two

lowest ACAi. The above condition will only hold for affected generating units. A plant

will not install a scrubber at a non-affected generating unit because reducing emissions at

a non-affected unit does not relax any emissions constraints.14

3.7.9.1 At which generating units will a plant install a scrubber?

The order a plant will install scrubbers at its generating units and a plant's marginal

costs of abatement for both with and without a scrubber are known. Now it must be

defined when a plant will install a scrubber at a given generating unit by finding the

allowance price at which a plant is indifferent to installing a scrubber. This is tough to

analytically show because a plant has multiple choices to minimize its total costs through

scrubber installation.

Assume that all generating units operated by a plant are affected by Phase I, each

unit uses its cost minimizing combination of coal and allowances based on its scrubber

choice, and the units are sorted by ACA, from smallest to largest (ACA1 < ACA2 < ... <

ACA,_1 < ACA,). A plant's scrubber choices will be based on the relative total costs of

each possible combination of scrubber installation. A plant will not install a scrubber at

any generating units if its total costs are lower with no scrubbers installed than installing

a scrubber at the generating unit with the lowest ACAi (C(zi = 0, z2 = 0, ..., z = 0) <

C(zi = 1, 2 = 0,..., z = 0)) where C(*) is the total costs for a given scrubber choices

and optimal coal and allowance choices. We already know that any other combination of

scrubber installation must result in higher costs.



14 Some plants voluntary enrolled units into Phase I, which are labeled as substitution
units or compensation units. Although these units were not initially affected, they were
enrolled into the program and face the same types of requirements as the original units.
For this reason, they are considered affected units.









If total costs are lower with a scrubber installed at the generating unit with the lowest

ACAi than without a scrubber at any units (C(zi 1, z2 = 0, ..., z, = 0) < C(zl = 0, z2

0,..., z, = 0)) and lower than with a scrubber installed at the two generating units with

the lowest ACA, (C(zi = z2= 0,..., = 0) < C(z 1, z2 1,3 = 0,..., z, 0)), then

a scrubber is installed only at the generating unit with the lowest ACA,.

Generalizing this condition, a plant's decision to install a scrubber at generating

unit "m". A plant will install "m" scrubbers at the "m" largest generating units if

(C(zi = 1,Z2 1,...,Zm, 1,Zm+ = 0, ..., z, = 0) < C(Zi 1,z2 1,..., m- 1 1,Zm =
0,..., zn 0)) and (C(zi = 1,Z2 = ,..., 1,Zm+1 = 0,..., = 0) < C(zz = 1,Z2

1, ..., Zn+1 1, Znm+2 = ..., Zn = 0)).
3.7.9.2 At what allowance price will a plant install a scrubber at a given
generating unit?

Finding the allowance price at which a plant is indifferent to installing a scrubber

at a given generating unit is the allowance price at which the total costs to the plant are

the same both with and without the scrubber (PF). Solving for this value for the plant's

scrubber choice for each generating unit requires an assumption on the scrubber choices

of all other generating units. Luckily, the scrubber installation choices have already been

ordered above.

At first glance, it appears difficult to derive P' because a plant compares its total

costs over all of its generating units, and a plant must choose whether to install a scrubber

at each unit. However, it has been shown that a plant will base its scrubber installation

on a single factor, relative ACA,. There are several requirements for a plant to install

a scrubber at a given affected generating unit "i": (1) a plant installs a scrubber at all

affected generating units with a lower ACA, than unit "i", (2) it is cheaper for a plant

to install a scrubber than to not install a scrubber at unit "i". This requires a simple

comparison between the costs of installing a scrubber versus not installing a scrubber.

Let "X" represent the parameters without a scrubber installed, and "X" represent the









parameters with a scrubber installed. The costs for all generating units "j 7 i" will not

change and will cancel out, leaving the same expression for PAS as derived in C'! Ilpter 2.

i-1
(PI, + PAAJ + Ph jh + P I C+ h Ch + P c)
j=1
+P, + PAA, + Ph + PfC1 + PhCh + PC>
n
+ (PAAk + PCs + PjS + PCh + P 1)
k=i+1
i-1
(PJ + P + PJCsh + P + Ch + Pc)
j=1
+PAA, + P"Ch + P1C8 + PhCh + PlC
n
+ (PAA + PhCh + PCS + PhCh + PCs
k=i+1
SPi + PAA, + P" h + P1SC + PhCh + P/C

SPAA, + PhC + PC + PhCh + Po (3-74)


Assuming no contract coal, we can derive the allowance price at which a plant is

indifferent to installing a scrubber for a given generating unit in (3-75).

P i phSr +^ \(( ps(cr^ 's\
S + ih ) + l il il (3-75)
(Ai Ai)

A special case exists for (3-75) in which the generating unit is a non-affected unit, which

results in PA -- o because the unit does not have to cover its emissions with allowances

and gains nothing from installing a scrubber. An indifference price of infinity implies that

a scrubber will never be installed at Unit "i" if it an unaffected unit.

P s P1 + h( 01) + Pis(C ) F, + P(C h) + PT(C Q)
SPA OO
(Ai A) 0
(3-76)

3.7.9.3 Scrubber installation and high sulfur coal contracts

So far we have ignored any coal contract constraints. We must determine at which

generating unit(s) a plant will use contracted coal, which can be derived from the









following three conditions: (1) given a plant installs no scrubbers, a plant is indifferent to

using contracted coal at any generating unit because each unit has the same MCAi, (2)

the marginal costs of using high sulfur contract coal at a generating unit with a scrubber

are lower than using high sulfur contract coal a generating unit without a scrubber, and

(3) any generating unit with a scrubber will have a lower ACA, than a generating unit

without a scrubber. We can simplify a plant's contract coal use choices from these three

conditions by using any high sulfur contract coal at the generating unit with the lowest

ACA,, which is also the generating unit at which a plant will first install a scrubber. By

doing so, we can determine at which generating unit to use high sulfur contract coal before

the scrubber choice is actually made by the plant. If all high sulfur contract coal will not

cover the entire heat input needed to meet demand at the generating unit with the lowest

ACA, (HCMAX > HC ), then all high sulfur coal will be used at that unit. If there

is more high sulfur contract coal than can be used at the generating unit with the lowest

ACAi (HCMAX < HC), then the remainder will be used at the unit with the second

lowest ACA,. The same process will be used if there remains any additional contract coal

after meeting the heat input demand for the generating unit with the second lowest ACA,.

A plant with a binding high sulfur coal contract has a greater incentive to install

a scrubber at each of its generating units because it must use some high sulfur coal,

even if it would prefer to use low sulfur coal at all generating units. A high sulfur coal

contract decreases the indifference price at which a unit will install a scrubber from PA to

(PA e) for each generating unit. The incentive may not be large enough to result in a

scrubber installation at its generating unit with the lowest ACA,. In such as case, a plant

is indifferent to using high sulfur contract coal at any of its generating units because all

units have the same MCA 8.

A binding high sulfur coal contract results in a decrease in PA.

At PAS where...


Pi, + PAA, + Ph h + PlC = + PC + PlC, (3-77)









If high sulfur contract coal is at least as expensive as high sulfur spot market coal, we

know that...


Pi + PAA + + + < AA + hh + gP0C + PP K FAi + Ph h (3-78)

This is the same result as in C'! plter 2 where a high sulfur coal contract results in an

inefficient coal use combination of high and low sulfur coal. The indifference price at which

a plant will install a scrubber at a given generating unit will weakly decrease when a plant

chooses to use high sulfur contract coal at that unit.

3.7.9.4 Scrubber installation and low sulfur coal contracts

It can be determined at which generating unit(s) a plant will use low sulfur

contracted coal from the following three conditions: (1) given a plant installs no scrubbers,

a plant is indifferent to using contracted coal at any generating unit because each unit has

the same MCAi, (2) the marginal costs of using low sulfur contract coal at a generating

unit with a scrubber are higher than using low sulfur contract coal a generating unit

without a scrubber, and (3) any generating unit with a scrubber will have a lower ACAi

than a generating unit without a scrubber. We can simplify a plant's contract coal use

choices from these three conditions by using any low sulfur contract coal at the generating

unit with the highest ACAj, which is also the generating unit at which will be the last

that a plant will install a scrubber. By doing so, we can determine at which generating

unit to use low sulfur contract coal before the scrubber choice is actually made by the

plant. If all low sulfur contract coal will not cover the entire heat input needed to meet

demand at the generating unit with the highest ACAi (HCil, ,MAX > HCl), then all

low sulfur coal will be used at that unit. If there is more low sulfur contract coal than can

be used at the generating unit with the highest ACA, MAX < H ), then the

remainder will be used at the unit with the second highest ACA,. The same process will

be used if there remains any additional contract coal after meeting the heat input demand

for the generating unit with the second highest ACAi.









A plant with a binding low sulfur coal contract has a smaller incentive to install a

scrubber at each of its generating units because it must use some low sulfur coal, even if

it would prefer to use high sulfur coal at all generating units. A low sulfur coal contract

increases the indifference price at which a unit will install a scrubber from PA to (PA + c)

for each generating unit. A plant is indifferent to using low sulfur contract coal at any of

its generating units if no scrubbers are installed because all units have the same MCA"'.

A binding low sulfur coal contract results in an increase in PS.

At Pf where...


P, + PAA, + PQ +P + Pl PAA + PC + PlC (3-79)

If low sulfur contract coal is at least as expensive as low sulfur spot market coal, we know

that...


Pi + PAA + PhCh + PC4 + P1C > PAA, + Ph CJ + P8C4+/c V (3-80)

This is the same result as in C'i plter 2. A low sulfur coal contract results in an

inefficient coal use combination of high and low sulfur coal. The indifference price at which

a plant will install a scrubber at a given generating unit will weakly increase when a plant

chooses to use low sulfur contract coal at that unit.

3.7.10 Scrubber Installation Example: Plant with Two Affected Generating
Units

For a simple example, consider the scrubber installation choices for a plant with only

two generating units. Assume that a plant will install a scrubber at Unit 1 before it will

install a scrubber at Unit 2 because (ACA1 < ACA2). There are three cases that may

result, each of which is described below with their own indifferent price for installing a

scrubber.









3.7.10.1 Case 1: Install no scrubbers

In the case of a plant choosing not to install any scrubbers, two conditions must hold.

First, the total costs of not installing any scrubbers must be less than installing a scrubber

at the generating unit with the lowest ACA1.

PAA, + PS C + PASC1 + PC h + PAC11

+PAA2 + PCh + P + P + PC C2

< Pi + PAA, + P + PiSC 1 + PhC + P~/CT

+PAA2 + PC h + P 1 + + P C2

From this equation, we can solve for PA for this condition to hold in (3-81). The amount

of contract coal is the same no matter the scrubber choice at each generating unit made

by a plant.

s < Pi + Ph(C0h h) + P'(C0' CO(3
P(A A)1)
(A, A,)

Second, the total costs to the plant of not installing any scrubbers must be less than

the total costs of installing scrubbers at both generating units.


PAA1 + PhClh + PiC1 + PhClh + P C11,
+PAA2 + P"C'h + Pf"C' + P/C h + P C'C2

< Pi, + PAAj + PIC'h + P1C11 + PhCIh + PfCi P2

+PAA2 + PhC h + PCs2 + PhCCh + P 1C'C

From this equation, we can solve for P, for this condition to hold in (3-82).

Ps + P[(Clh Ch) + (Ch Cl)] + P2z + PI[{1- C 1) + (2 Cs )]
PA < -----(3-82)
(A A) + (A2 A2)

The minimum of the two PA' will be the allowance price at which a plant is indifferent

to installing a scrubber and not installing any scrubbers. Notice that the allowance price









for installing one scrubber will be weakly less than the allowance at which a plant would

install scrubbers at both it's generating units.

3.7.10.2 Case 2: Install one scrubber

We know that a plant will install a scrubber at the generating unit with the lowest

ACAi, which in this case is assumed to be Unit 1. For a plant to install one scrubber, two

conditions must hold. First, the total costs of installing one generating unit must be lower

than the total costs of installing no scrubbers.



Pi1 + PAA, + PCr + PC + PS + P + CI + AA2 + PSCs + PI C + PhIC


From this equation, we can solve for Ps for this condition to hold in (3-83).

Piz + P (Csh Ch) + P1 (C1o Ci)
A < A1 (383)

Second, the total costs of installing one generating unit must be lower than the total

costs of installing two scrubbers.



Piz + PAA1 + PhC' + PlC1 Ph + P/cCt

+PAA2 + P + P1 1 + P h + PI 1

SP + + PAAl + PhC + PC11 + PCh PC( + P2z

+PAA2 P + P1S + PhC C P'C

From this equation, we can solve for Pc for this condition to hold in (3-84).

D PTss PAs I ns( nds s_ Csl) S A r

(A2 A2)
The allowance price must be between these two indifference prices, which results in

PAS < PA for Unit 1 and PAS > PA for Unit 2.









3.7.10.3 Case 3: Install two scrubbers

For a plant to install a scrubber at both generating units, two conditions must hold.
First, the total costs of installing two generating units must be lower than the total costs
of installing one scrubber.



Pi, l PAA1+ PCi + P1 + C1 + PC(h + P CT1 + P,2

+PAA2 + PhC + PC1 + Pl C2 + Pl 1C

< + PAAI + P T + Pih + C + PhC h + P

+PAA2 + Ph + PIfCS + PC h + PC C02

From this equation, we can solve for PA for this condition to hold in (3-85).

D I psi cs _rs \sj Is s1s Cs S
P2 + rPhs(h ~h) + P1 W(2l C1) < PA (3-85)
(A2 A2)
Second, the total costs of installing a scrubber at both generating units must be lower
than the total costs of installing no scrubbers.



P, + PAAI + P l + PPCI + P Cih + P C1 + P2,

+PAA, + P"' P PCh 1 + PhC( + Pl FC

< PAA + PI'C;h + PfCl1 + PhCoh + PcC11

+PAA2 + P Ch + P1C1c + PC h + P C21

From this equation, we can solve for PA for this condition to hold in (3-86).

P1 + P (C'h CO) + P(Ci Ci) P2 + P(2h Ch) + P T Cs) Ps 86)
(A1 A) + (A2 A2)

The allowance price must be greater than both of these two indifference prices for two
scrubbers to be installed.









We can monotonically order these indifference prices at which a plant will be

indifferent to installing a scrubber in each of the above cases. A simple mathematical

example using data based on data from the Colbert generating units can be used to show

the monotonic nature of these indifference prices in Table 3-7.

A plant with no contract coal will prefer to install no scrubbers if the allowance price

is below $194.48. An allowance price between $194.48 and $230.89 will lead a plant to

install a scrubber at Unit 1, but not at Unit 2. A plant will install scrubbers at both units

if the allowance price is greater than $230.89.

Now consider the plant has a high sulfur coal contract for 28.92' of coal use

(13,855,269 mmBtu), which will alter the indifference at which a plant will install a

scrubber at Unit 1. We have already shown that high sulfur contract coal will be used at

the generating unit with the lowest ACAi, which is Unit 1. The required use of high sulfur

coal will lower the allowance indifferent price to installing a scrubber at Unit 1 to $140.69.

There will be no change in the indifference price to installing a scrubber at Unit 2 because

the high sulfur coal contract does not bind for that generating unit.

Now consider the plant has a high sulfur coal contract for all of its coal use in both

generating units (47,913,973 mmBtu). The indifference prices for both generating units

will both decrease as a result. The allowance price at which the plant will install a

scrubber at Unit 1 will again be $140.49. The indifference price for Unit 2 will decrease to

$153.61. A high sulfur coal contract for all of a generating unit's coal requirements results

in large reductions of the allowance price at which a plant will be indifferent to installing a

scrubber for both Unit 1 ($54 or 2-',) and Unit 2 ($77 or 3 ;',).

3.7.11 Scrubber Installation Example: Plant with One Affected and One
Non-Affected Generating Units

The P for the non-affected unit (Unit 2) will be infinity because there is no price at

which a plant would want to install a scrubber at a non-affected unit. The non-affected









unit will not buy or sell any allowances either since it has no emissions constraint. The

only possible choice is to install a scrubber at the affected unit (Unit 1).
Case 1: Install No Scrubber

The total costs of not installing a scrubber must be lower than the total costs of

installing a scrubber at the affected unit.

P4AA + PC'h + Pl Cl + PCh + P Cc + PhsC2 + P1 C2 + PJCjh + P C7l

< Pl + P4Ai + PhClh + PlfCPl + PhClh + P/C'l + PhAC + PtlCj2 + PCh + PIF l

From this equation, we can solve for P, for this condition to hold in (3-87).

ps 1 + Ph(C' Ch) + Pi'(C CO-)
(A1 A1)

Case 2: Install One Scrubber

The total costs of installing a scrubber must be lower than the total costs of not

installing a scrubber at the affected unit.

Pz + PAA t + CISlh + Pl + PFClh + P CT + P ChS + PFC + PhFCh + P CIl


From this equation, we can solve for PAs for this condition to hold in (3-88).

ps z + Ph(Ci C +) P(C'1 O-8))
P F > F Cit (3 88)
A (A1- A1)


3.7.12 Summary of Plant Level Results

A plant's decision-making process may not minimize costs for each generating unit

because a plant's concern is based on the combined costs of all generating units under its

operational control. The choice to install a scrubber is based on the characteristics of all

the units at a plant, not just the unit at which the scrubber may be installed. Once the









order of preferred scrubber installations is determined based on the ACAi, a plant is able

to make its cost minimizing fuel choices.

A plant level model is more realistic than a generating unit level model because coal

deliveries are made at the plant level where there are often multiple generating units.

Operating multiple units allows a plant to relax its contract constraint because there are

additional degrees of freedom in fuel use depending on each unit's emissions, demand, and

coal contract constraints. Also, plants are able to trade allowances between generating

units as needed to cover emissions at no additional cost. A plant may also have one

or more "non-affected" generating units, which face no emissions constraint. Any high

sulfur contract coal can be used at these non-affect units without any negative financial

repercussions due to the policy. These factors can lead to plant-level choices that do not

minimize each generating unit's total costs.

3.8 CONCLUSIONS

The U.S. SO2 Trading Program led to lower compliance costs than what would have

occurred under a command-and-control approach. However, all compliance cost savings

were not realized in part due to short-run fuel contract rigidities, particularly during

the first years of the program. This paper considers the allowance market equilibrium

impacts and total industry compliance costs from fuel contracts both through analytics

and empirical modeling.

An allowance market equilibrium will exist only if the discrete scrubber choice is

given. Allowing for an endogenous scrubber choice makes it impossible to guarantee an

equilibrium, although one may still may exist. Binding fuel contracts may alter a unit's

compliance decisions and excess demand. Altering compliance decisions could lead to both

an altered allowance market price and an increase total industry compliance costs.

Generating unit-level simulations were able to effectively replicate the results from

previous studies and show that fuel contracts can explain a portion of the previously

unexplained excess compliance costs. Simulating the least-cost compliance choices without









including fuel contract constraints results in minimum annual industry compliance costs of

--I' I million, which varies greatly from the actual compliance costs of $1.30 billion found

in these simulations. Once fuel contract constraints are introduced into the simulation,

the minimum annual industry compliance costs become $939 million-$1.07 billion. Based

on these results, fuel contract constraints appear to explain -.' ~1.1 million, or i-.'.- of the

excess compliance costs realized in the program for 1996. These impacts should slowly

decrease over time as firms adjust to the policy environment and binding contracts expire.

However, the impacts on compliance costs should linger for years due to the long length of

coal contract agreements. Also, contracts appear to remain prevalent in coal purchasing

agreements and could lead to some issues resulting from further SO2 emissions restrictions.

A plant's decision-making process may not minimize costs for each generating unit

because a plant's concern is based on the combined costs of all generating units under its

operational control. The choice to install a scrubber is based on the characteristics of all

the units at a plant, not just the unit at which the scrubber may be installed. Once the

order of preferred scrubber installations is determined based on the ACAi, a plant is able

to make its cost minimizing fuel choices.

A plant level model is more realistic than a generating unit level model because coal

deliveries are made at the plant level where there are often multiple generating units.

Operating multiple units allows a plant to relax its contract constraint because there are

additional degrees of freedom in fuel use depending on each unit's emissions, demand, and

coal contract constraints. Also, plants are able to trade allowances between generating

units as needed to cover emissions at no additional cost. A plant may also have one

or more "non-affected" generating units, which face no emissions constraint. Any high

sulfur contract coal can be used at these non-affect units without any negative financial

repercussions due to the policy. These factors can lead to plant-level choices that do not

minimize each generating unit's total costs.









Table 3-1. Example: Contract Coal Distribution
Plant-Level Constraint Total mmBtu
High Sulfur Contract 300,000
Low Sulfur Contract 300,000
Demand 600,000


Unit Demand
1 200,000
2 200,000
3 200,000


Coal Dist'n by Unit
Unit 1
Unit 2
Unit 3


High Sulfur Coal
200,000
50,000
50,000


Low Sulfur Coal
0
150,000
150,000


Table 3-2. Sulfur Conversion by Fuel Type


Fuel
Bituminous
Sub-bituminous
Anthracite
Lignite
Fuel Oil #2
Fuel Oil #6
Natural Gas


Emissions Conversion Factor
(38 Sulfur Content)/(mmBtu per ton)
(35 Sulfur Content)/(mmBtu per ton)
(39 Sulfur Content)/(mmBtu per ton)
(30 Sulfur Content)/(mmBtu per ton)
(144 Sulfur Content)/(mmBtu per 1,000 bbl.)
(162 Sulfur Content)/(mmBtu per 1,000 bbl.)
(0.60 lbs. S02/mmCF)/(mmBtu per mmCF)


Baseline
lbs. S02/mmBtu
bs. S02/mmBtu
bs. S02/mmBtu
bs. S02/mmBtu
l Ibs. SO2/mmBtu
l Ibs. SO2/mmBtu
l Ibs. S02/mmBtu


Scrubber
Yes
No
No














zzzz
< < <


Z6c


1-
C
Vn


Co

1-oL


Co
06~


-6
0rc


V
1-

CIA
Ge,


1- 1- Co V Co r Co
rr~~Co~


~
~ 0~0c~
0
0 ~

ooo0o0~


oC
0 H..
^ ^


OOW
UZl


SCl VC DC D






191


0
n o







c
S-&









. m
0 0
0o
UU..










Table 3-4. Impact of Contract Constraint on Scrubber C('!i. ..


State Decrease
WV -4
NY -2
PA -2
WI -2
GA -1
KY -1


3-5. Simulations
Ai PA


NA
NA
0
1,972
0
2,611
NA


NA
NA
$149.64
$214.83
$207.60
$238.55
NA


with Engineering Data
Scrubbers Industry Costs


Installed
17
17
46
25
46
38
46


$7,685,800,000
$8,267,400,000
$8,239,000,000
$8,010,200,000
$8,770,900,000
$8,686,300,000
$8,995,600,000


Comp. Costs
(vs. 1)
NA
NA
-".. : 1)0,000
$324,400,000
$1,085,100,000
$1,000,500,000
$1,309,800,000


Table 3-6. Impacts of a Reduction in the Allowance Allocation of 10'-.
Simulation 4 Initial Allocation Allocation Minus 10'.(
Industry Compliance Costs -2-',300,000 $381,900,000


Scrubbers Installed
Allowance Price


Simulation 6
Industry Compliance Costs
Scrubbers Installed
Allowance Price


44
$155.58


61
$189.43


Initial Allocation
. ;.7,800,000
61
$210.74


Allocation Minus 1(1'.
$476,600,000
73
$222.22


Comp. Costs
(vs. 2)
NA
NA
NA
NA
$503,500,000
$418,900,000
$728,200,000


Increase
$93,600,000
17
$33.85

Increase
$118,800,000
12
$11.48


Table 3-7. Math Example: Two Affected Units
Coal Type Price Sulfur Content
Low Sulfur Spot $1.20 i., -".'.
High Sulfur Spot $1.10 2 -,'.
High Sulfur Contract $1.15 2 -,,'.


Generating Unit
Unit 1
Unit 2


Piz
$2,719,320
$7,298,412


Heat Content
24 mmBtu
24 mmBtu
24 mmBtu

Demand (mmBtu)
13,855,269
34,058,704


Scrubber Installation
None
Unit 1
Unit 2


P : No Contract
< $194.48
($194.48, $230.89)
$230.89


P': Unit 1 Demand
< $140.69
($140.69, $230.89)
$230.89


P': Unit 1 and Unit 2 Demand
< $140.69
($140.69, $153.61)
$153.61


Increase


State
MO
MS
IN
FL
AL
OH


Table
Sim.

1
2
3
4
5
6
7

















MCAss


S


SMIN 0 A M



NET SELLER NET BUYER

Figure 3-1. Excess Demand Correspondence


MCI' f


AMIN "'V-'


(i)


4


4-


0 A -l i "i-


'V ~-


NET SELLER NET BUYER


NET SELLER NET BUYER


Figure 3-2. Impact of High Sulfur Coal Contract


(ii)


MAX


I PC.


!


I __


P, .---.





















MCAsC -

MCAss


4-


I-


(i)


R N
NET SELLER NET BUYER


Figure 3-3. Impact of Low Sulfur Coal Contract


SI




s
MC4" I
T-_



MC.t" ~~-


NET SELLER NET BUYER
NET SELLER NET BUYER


AsM A ASM A; 'AV 0
I A, /i


Figure 3-4. Excess Demand Correspondence with Scrubber ('C!1. .,


Ar

























Figure 3-5. Impacts of High Sulfur Coal Contract









PA (i) PA (ii)



PAS T I I
MCg4u '-- Imacsof-- MCA4,-- --r--

: 11 I 10 A I
A 4"" a T~ X O 4MM 4 < AM 4M 0


Figure 3-6. Impacts of Low Sulfur Coal Contract




















MCAf 's


- --- --------- -


a --I


A A4X
^f


Figure 3-7. Given Scrubber C'!,i..


MCA Ss


Shift from High Sulfur Contract


------- --- -------


I -


E- m -


i


"MAX
A,


Figure 3-8. Given Scrubber C('! i..


mmm


~ABLi~kT
i


Shift from Low Sulfur Contract



























AMCAsA'


MCi


pS
A

- I
_e --


4----


ASAMI A SMAX 4MLV '?"
A A"' As- A Ar'


Figure 3-9. With Scrubber Choice: Shift from High Sulfur Contract





















P

MrA5
AJOA,4S's


MCI


I
I

S --u

I
-A

I

I
pj _


- U


1 14-


I


i


A i


Figure 3-10. With Scrubber C'!h. Shift from Low Sulfur Contract


A4SMIN
il


" MAX
A,


SMA


-i. T-*. *^---^


i









APPENDIX A
CONTRACT IMPACTS ON COSTS AND SCRUBBER INSTALLATION
INDIFFERENCE PRICE

A.1 Impacts on Total Costs and Compliance Costs from a Coal Contract
Constraint

First, consider a unit's total costs without a coal contract constraint. Without

the program restrictions on emissions, a unit will simply minimize its costs of meeting

electricity demand by using the coal with the lowest price per unit of heat content.

pstsl I pS1Csl (Al)
ihPi' + Pis(A-)

With the emissions constraint from the program, a unit will minimize its costs of coal use,

net allowance purchases, and scrubber installation.


z P + PA C + P* + P8Q* (A-2)

The difference between (A-1) and (A-2) is the total compliance costs resulting from the

program, which includes the change in coal costs, change in the net allowance purchases,

and scrubber installation costs.


zP, + P IA + P(q* CQh) + P(Cq* C1') (A-3)

Second, consider a unit's total costs with a coal contract constraint. Without the

program restrictions on emissions, a unit will simply minimize its costs of meeting

electricity demand by using all the the coal under contract, and cover the remainder of its

coal demand with the coal with the lowest price per unit of heat content.


PiC + pil + PhQ + PQ' (A-4)

With the emissions constraint, a unit will minimize its costs for coal use, net allowance

purchases, and scrubber installation given its emissions and coal contract constraint.


z Pz + PjA i + P;hC + PC~i + P C* + PC* (A-5)









The difference between (A-4) and (A-5) is the total compliance costs resulting from the

program, which includes the change in spot market coal costs, net allowance purchases,

and scrubber installation. The costs from contract coal cancel out because contract coal

use will be the same both with and without the program.


P, + PA* + P ( C- ) + P C C') (A-6)

The sufficient conditions under which a coal contract constraint will increase or

decrease a unit's compliance costs can be derived from the difference in compliance costs

with and without a coal contract ((A-6) minus (A-3)).


[, + P *A + P s rs- +C8) + Pis,* CI)

z[P, + PIA: + P, (Ch h) + P,(Q* C)] (A-7)

For simplicity, assume that the scrubber choice as a given and high sulfur spot

market coal is relatively cheaper than low sulfur spot market coal. So without an

emissions constraint a unit will prefer to use the cheaper high sulfur coal. Proposition

1 can be proven by considering the change in compliance costs in (A-8) resulting from

a coal contract. First consider a high sulfur coal contract to show Proposition 1(i) and

Proposition l(ii) hold.

Proof of Proposition 1(i):

If PA > MCA"', a unit prefers to switch from high to low sulfur coal to meet its

emissions requirement because it is the least-cost compliance option. Without a high

sulfur coal contract, a unit will use all low sulfur coal (C* = Ci' and C = 0) and

require the fewest allowances to cover the minimum emissions level (A"IN). With a high
sulfur coal contract, a unit will use less low sulfur coal (,,MAX < C: ), which will









increase the emissions level and require additional allowances (AMIN > AMIN).

P~iIV ( is, MAX\ ,s( s,MAX 0)] [ *AMIN+ ps / -s,MAX\ srs,MAX)
[PI -i T1 Pish (0- C"A +pis Cil i^ I ~{J \
(A-8)

The change in compliance costs will be:

J/IV- AMIN) S (C MAX is,MAX r s s,MAX s,MAX) (A 9)
A MN ) hih Cih + ~ il ) 9)


The first term is positive because AMIN AMIN. The second term is also positive because
~s,MAX -s ,MAX. sMAX < CIs,MAX
hMAX > MAX. The third term is negative because ",MAX < ,MAX

Now fill in for coal use:

is,MAX Di ^sMAX D, CHh Cs,MAX Di ^sMAX Di Cfh Hh
ih H i H8 i H i -
h h Hih i His

The change in compliance costs resulting from a high sulfur coal contract is the

increase in net allowance purchases minus the cost savings from not switching fuels from

the high sulfur contract coal.


Pj4 V AIN) ) hH- (A-10)
Hih His

Now fill in for the net allowance position:

MIN D I/ I V D ch ih cs c A 'e
IN Srm A Ai D s i + C
His, His, M i




By adding and subtracting mPA ,h combining like terms, and dividing through by

m( H), the expression can be simplified to:
r50 szc ps ps
ih ih ih ih





itHCh [P>( SMh ) + PA CA (A11)
i h i h
iCHh PI ( h ) + PA MCA"] (A- t)
;57h ;571









For this case, it is assumed the PJ > MCA7'8. So if > compliance costs will
ih ih
increase, and the increase will be get larger as the coal contract gets larger.E

Proof of Proposition l(ii):

If PA < MCA"'>, a unit prefers to use all high sulfur coal and purchase allowances to

meet its emissions requirement because it is the least-cost compliance option. Without a
MAX
high sulfur coal contract, a unit will use all high sulfur spot market coal (Ci = CiM

and Ci* = 0) and require the most allowance use to cover its maximum emissions level

(AMAX). With a high sulfur coal contract, a unit will use less high sulfur spot market coal

(C AX < AX ). If high sulfur contract coal has a higher sulfur to heat content ratio

(; > ), a unit will generate additional emissions, which will require a unit to purchase
1ih Hih
more or sell fewer allowances (A AX > AMAX). Now fill in for known values and combine

like terms:

P*(A" '' AjMAX) PC TTH( I)ih (A-12)
Hih Hih
All coal use remains the same, which means the change in compliance costs will be the

increase in costs from additional allowances. If h > a unit's compliance costs will
Hih Hih
increase. U

Proof of Proposition l(iii):

If PA > MCA"', a unit prefers to switch to all low sulfur use because it is the

least-cost compliance option. Without a low sulfur coal contract, a unit will use all low
sulfur spot market coal (C* = CMX and C* = 0) and require the least possible

allowances to cover its minimum emissions level (AmIN). With a low sulfur coal contract,

a unit will use less low sulfur spot market coal (CAX < C ). If low sulfur

contract coal has a higher sulfur to heat content ratio (; > ;), a unit will generate

additional emissions, which will require a unit to purchase more or sell fewer allowances

(AMIN > AMIN). Coal use will remain the same with and without an emissions constraint,









and will cancel out. Fill in for known values and combine like terms:

AMIN Di -I Ae I r 'V Di /17 r~ ,Y c A-
Ai Sm A il A Hiiil i


P(A1i1 AMIN) PCiH l( ) (A-13)
i ( Ai A i I HI H i H isi l
The change in compliance costs will be the increase in costs from the increase in a unit's

net allowance position. If > S a unit's compliance costs will increase.E

Proof of Proposition 1(iv):

If PA < MCA"'8, a unit prefers to use all high sulfur coal and purchase allowances

instead of switching fuels to meet its emissions requirement because it is the least-cost

compliance option. Without a low sulfur coal contract, a unit will use all high sulfur coal

(C7 = CMAX and C"* 0) and require the largest net allowance position to cover the
maximum emissions level (AMAX). With a low sulfur coal contract, a unit will use less

high sulfur coal (CiA < sih A), which will decrease the emissions level and requires

fewer allowances (AAX > AMAX). Since a unit prefers to use high sulfur coal with and

without the emissions constraint, coal use will remain the same. Fill in for known values

and combine like terms:

D/ iI'V AMIN)Ps\ CS,MAX _s,MAX s ,MAX s s,MAX it i, V AMIN) (A 1)
SA~i~i Aih\h ~ih hi (iC ) C C ~ A A (A

The change in compliance costs is the change in costs from the change in net allowance

position. Now fill in for the net allowance position:

AMAX SDi 8 e I ; _i (HD -s ,+ CSc c Ae
S- m Ai Ai + C,-Sm Aii
Hih ih

CcC HP [i ihA5
HzPm sh < 0 (A15)
SC S
Since ~ < compliance costs will decrease.E

Another way of looking at the impacts of coal contract constraints on compliance

costs is to find the change in total costs for a unit facing an emissions constraint with










and without a coal contract ((A-5)-(A-2)) and split it into two components, the change

in compliance costs and the change in fuel costs. For simplicity, assume the conditions in

Proposition l(i) hold.


4P, + PI(A* A*() C+ P +P ( -C + P(' C}*) (A-16)


Assume that a unit faces a high sulfur coal contract, and prefers to switch to low sulfur

coal use to meet its emissions requirement instead of purchasing allowances or installing a

scrubber.
P/ ,iV AMIN) + p ps(s,MAX I,MAX) (A7)
i js ilc (il

To be able to interpret this expression, it is necessary to add and subtract (P ,hJi ).


C (P PH ) P( V AMIN) + Ps h + P s,MAX s,MAX) (A 18)
-- ich (P ~h i h T + p (A i )+ Ai ihrr 1H isil ~ pi ) "-,;)
ih ih

The first term is the change in high sulfur coal costs from using the contract coal instead

of spot market coal. These are not changes in compliance costs because they will occur

with or without the program. The remaining terms are the change in compliance costs

resulting from the program.

H h ,AIN), Al Pc -9)
ch(Pich Ph ) + P( i" V AMIN )rCH (A 19)
hh ihrs Hsh Hi (iA 1

Change in Fuel Costs Change in Compliance Costs

By filling in for the coal use, the last terms give the same expression for the change in

compliance costs as in the proof of Proposition l(i).

ih ih
Ch Hh [P( ) + PA MCA] (A 20)
H H
ih il
SC S
A unit's compliance costs increase if > H-.
Hih ih









A.2 Derivation of Cost-Minimizing Input Use to Find PA

Assuming no scrubber, the cost-minimizing combination of coal and allowances solves

the problem below.

miP ihip AMAX ps i s,MAX p AMIN s,MAX (A21)
n ,,C (PAAi + ihih A PA + PilCil ) (A )

Assuming a scrubber is installed, the cost-minimizing combination of inputs is expressed

below.
miniChC A (l ASMAX + pis s,MAX P ASMIN + ps s,MAX) (A22)
mTnAi,c-ih, t, A +ih ih A~i + .il.U ) (A 22)

Notice that contract coal use and the cost of installing a scrubber can be ignored because

all are constants.









APPENDIX B
MARKET EQUILIBRIUM AND SIMULATION DESIGN

B.1 Conditions for Existence of an Equilibrium

Theorem 5.1: Assuming the scrubber choice (z*) as given, a market equilibrium exists.

Proof of Theorem 5.1: To prove that a market equilibrium exists, it is necessary to

apply Kakutani's Fixed Point Theorem.
Kakutani's Fixed Point Theorem that states: If X is a non-c>mi'l; compact, convex

subset of R" and if f is an upper semi-continuous correspondence from X into itself such

that (Vx c X) the set f(x) is non-e(t ,ji; and convex, then f has a fixed point (there is an

x f(x)).
Assuming all other parameters as given for all generating unit "i", a generating units

excess demand is a function of the allowance price, Ai(PA). Consider a generating unit's

excess demand correspondence from Section 5.

SAAX if PA > MCAj',
A pAAX (1 p)AfIN if PA = MCAf Vp e [0,1]

AfIN if PA < MCAj',

To find the market excess demand, you must sum all generating unit excess demands,

which gives you Am = Yi Ai. It is necessary to show that the market excess demand

is compact. The market excess demand is bounded above by the sum of the maximum

allowance excess demands for each generating unit ( 1i AAX) and below by the sum

of the minimum allowance excess demands for each generating unit ( Ai AfIN). So the

market excess demand lies in a closed interval [Ei 1 AfIN, 1 AMAX] X. X being a

closed interval on the real line is non-empty, compact (closed and bounded), and convex

(any point on the line connecting any two points in the set is also in the set).
It is necessary to show that the set of prices is compact (closed and bounded). Define

the lower bound on price to be zero because it is necessary to have a positive price.

Define the upper bound on price to be PA argmin Ai(PA), or the allowance









price that results in the smallest possible excess demand for a particular generating unit

multiplied by two. This ensures a upper bound that will be higher than any possible price.

The closed interval for prices is [0, PA], which is non-empty by design. Since there is an

upper bound, a lower bound, and both bounds are included in the set (closed), the set is

compact.

Since the set of prices and market excess demands are compact and the market

excess demand depends on the allowance price, the market excess demand (Am(PA)) is a

mapping from [0, PA] into X. It is necessary to show that excess demand is non-empty,

convex valued at each PA E [0, PA], and upper semi-continuous. It is sufficient to show

that each generating unit's excess demand correspondence is non-empty, convex, and

upper semi-continuous because the sum of a finite number of non-empty, convex, upper

semi-continuous correspondences is also non-empty, convex, and upper semi-continuous.

A generating units' excess demand (Ai(PA)) are defined to be mappings from

[0, PA] into X, which makes them non-empty by construction. A generating unit's
excess demand correspondence is closed and bounded in the interval [A"IN A AX],

which makes it a compact set. The set of excess demands is convex because the average

of any two excess demand values is also in the set. For a correspondence to be upper

semi-continuous, the convergence excess demand value of any price sequence must also

be in the correspondence. Since every possible price sequence converges to a value that

is in the excess demand correspondence (see Figure B.2), each unit's excess demand

correspondence is upper semi-continuous.

Now we must define the mapping from X into the set of prices [0, PA] as pl(x) where...



( PA E [0,PA PA [, = maxQ[ PA Q x if x / 0
PA E [0, PA :PA = 0 if otherwise

Since [0, PA] is non-empty, p(x) must be non-empty as well. The mapping is convex

valued since for market excess demand equal to zero (x = 0), p(x) = [0, PA]. If there is a









positive excess demand (x > 0), p(x) =PA. If there is a negative excess demand (x < 0),

or excess supply, p(x) = 0. Since [0, PA] is compact, the graph of p(x) is closed, which

implies p(x) is upper semi-continuous.

Now define F(x, PA) i(x) x Am(PA). Since p(x) and Am(PA) satisfy all properties

needed to apply Kakutani's Fixed Point Theorem, there exists a fixed point (x*, Pj) such

that PA E [0, PA] and x* c X such that PA E p(x*) and x* e Ar(PA).E

In English...There is a market excess demand correspondence for which each excess

demand value can only result from only one allowance price while each allowance price will

result in at least one market excess demand value.

Once the scrubber choice is introduced into the decision-making process, the

correspondence becomes more complex, as seen in Figure B.2. An equilibrium may in

fact exist, but there is no way to guarantee an equilibrium because the excess demand

correspondence is no longer a convex set. The average of the two excess demand values

(ASMAX and A"IN) is not in the excess demand correspondence.

B.2 Technical Details of Simulation Model Design

The equilibrium allowance market price is solved by using a bisection iterative

process. An upper limit ($1,000) and lower limit ($0) for the allowance price are chosen.

The initial allowance price is set to the upper limit and the simulation solves for each

generating unit's cost-minimizing choices. Then it checks if the allowance market is in an

equilibrium.

If market excess demand is positive, the allowance price is too low and the allowance

price is increased by one-half the difference between the upper and lower limits. The old

price now becomes the new lower limit while the upper limit remains the same. If the

market excess demand is negative, the allowance price is too high and the allowance price

is decreased by one-half the difference between the upper and lower limits. The old price

becomes the new upper limit and the lower limit remains the same. In this case, the upper









limit is set high enough to guarantee the price is too low. So the price will decrease by

$1,000-($1000-$0)/2=$500 to a new price of $500.

The program is then run again with the new allowance price, each iteration decreasing

the difference between the upper and lower limits by half until the program converges to

an allowance price. Once the program converges, it must ensure a market excess demand

of zero. A concern is that the program tends to push a unit's choices towards a corner

solution where the market may not clear.

Given the scrubber choice, the allowance price will converge to a value equal to at

least one generating unit's MCA'", which allows those firms choices to be shifted to

an interior solution to clear the market without altering the unit's total costs or total

industry costs because the unit is indifferent to purchasing allowances or switching fuels

from high to low sulfur coal at the equilibrium allowance price (PJ).

Allowing for the scrubber choice will result in the convergence of PA at an allowance

price where a generating unit is indifferent to installing a scrubber. In this case, there is

not a true equilibrium and must consider it a quasi-equilibrium as described above.











L -- a p


PI


MCAdI"3

Figure B-1. Upper Semi-Continuous Correspondence


A,(PA)





Not in A 1
Set ,.? _


Non-Convexity


MICAT.s Ps MCs_ PA


Figure B-2. Correspondence with Scrubber ('C! ,,,


A (PA)

MAXM








A MIN


PA









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BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH

Joshua David Kneifel was born in 1981 in North Platte, N. ,i i-1: i. He grew up

in North Platte, graduating salutatorian from Hershey High School in 1999. Joshua

received his bachelor's degrees in economics and mathematics in 2003 from Doane College

in Crete, N. i i-1;: i. He received his Master of the Arts in economics in 2005 from the

University of Florida, where he specialized in industrial organization, public economics,

and econometrics. From Fall 2006 through Spring 2008, Joshua instructed four semesters

of a course in environmental economics. His classwork and research allowed him to obtain

his PhD in economics from the University of Florida.

Upon completion of his PhD program, he will take an economist position at the

National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) in Gaithersburg, Maryland. His

responsibilities at NIST will include research on the life-cycle cost and environmental

impacts of individual products used in the construction industry.





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Ithankmysupervisorycommitteechair,LawrenceKenny,alongwithmyothercommitteemembers(SanfordBerg,JonathanHamilton,andJaneLuzar)fortheircommentsandadviseregardingmydissertation.SpecialthanksgoestoPaulSotkiewiczforhisinterest,guidance,andsupportinmyresearch.Ialsothankmyparentsfortheirnever-endingsupport. 4

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page ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ................................. 4 LISTOFTABLES ..................................... 9 LISTOFFIGURES .................................... 10 ABSTRACT ........................................ 12 CHAPTER 1EFFECTSOFSTATEGOVERNMENTPOLICIESONELECTRICITYCAPACITYFROMNON-HYDROPOWERRENEWABLESOURCES ..... 14 1.1Introduction ................................... 14 1.2LiteratureReview ................................ 16 1.3Model ...................................... 18 1.4VariablesandData ............................... 21 1.4.1EconomicandPoliticalVariables:Wit 21 1.4.2RegulatoryPolicyVariables:Rit 27 1.5StatisticalSpecicationsandEmpiricalAnalysis ............... 33 1.5.1EconomicandPoliticalVariables:Wit 34 1.5.2RegulatoryPolicyVariables:Rit 37 1.5.3StateFixed-EectsVariables:Sit 40 1.5.4YearVariables:Tit 40 1.6Conclusions ................................... 41 2EFFECTSOFCOALCONTRACTCONSTRAINTSONSO2TRADINGPROGRAMCOMPLIANCEDECISIONS ..................... 47 2.1Introduction ................................... 47 2.2PolicyBackground ............................... 48 2.2.1TitleIVoftheCleanAirActAmendment .............. 48 2.2.1.1PhaseIofTitleIV ...................... 49 2.2.1.2PhaseIIofTitleIV ...................... 50 2.2.2CleanAirInterstateRule ........................ 51 2.3LiteratureReview ................................ 52 2.3.1TitleIV:PhaseI ............................ 52 2.3.2Utility-LevelModelsofComplianceCosts ............... 55 2.3.3Long-TermCoalContracts ....................... 56 2.4InecienciesResultingfromCoalContractConstraints ........... 57 2.5ModelandParameters ............................. 60 2.6GeneratingUnitLevelDecision-MakingProcess ............... 62 2.6.1GeneratingUnit'sProblem ....................... 63 2.6.2First-OrderConditions ......................... 64 5

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................ 65 2.6.3.1Necessaryconditionsforusingbothhighsulfurandlowsulfurcoal ........................... 65 2.6.3.2Onlyhighsulfurcoaluse:Necessaryconditions ...... 65 2.6.3.3Onlylowsulfurcoaluse:Necessaryconditions ....... 66 2.6.4CoalUseUnderaHighSulfurCoalContractConstraint ....... 66 2.6.5CoalUseunderaLowSulfurCoalContractConstraint ....... 68 2.6.6GeneratingUnit-LevelComplianceCosts ............... 70 2.6.7GeneratingUnit'sNetAllowancePosition:ExcessDemandCorrespondence ....................... 72 2.6.7.1CostsavingsoffuelswitchingversusallowancepurchaseswhenPA>MCAs;si 74 2.6.7.2Eectsofhighsulfurcoalcontractsonexcessdemandandcosts .............................. 74 2.6.7.3CostsavingsofallowancepurchasesversusfuelswitchingwhenPA
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.. 136 3.4.3ComparativeStatics:EectofCoalContractsontheAllowanceMarketwithEndogenousScrubberChoice .............. 136 3.4.3.1Highsulfurcoalcontractbinds ............... 137 3.4.3.2Lowsulfurcoalcontractbinds ................ 138 3.5ComplianceCosts ................................ 139 3.5.1ComplianceCostswithCoalContractsRelativetoComplianceCostsfromPreviousStudies .......................... 139 3.5.2TotalIndustryComplianceCost .................... 141 3.5.3ImpactofAllowanceAllocationonComplianceCostsGivenScrubbertheChoice ................................ 144 3.5.4ImpactofAllowanceAllocationwithEndogenousScrubberChoice 146 3.6SimulationModel ................................ 147 3.6.1Introduction ............................... 147 3.6.2Data ................................... 147 3.6.2.1Fueldata ........................... 147 3.6.2.2Allowance,actualemissions,anddemanddata ....... 150 3.6.2.3Technicalgeneratorandscrubberdata ........... 151 3.6.3SimulationModelDesign ........................ 152 3.6.4SimulationResults ........................... 152 3.6.4.1Totalindustrycostsandallowancemarketresults ..... 153 3.6.4.2Industryandgeneratingunitcoaluse ............ 157 3.6.4.3Generatingunitscrubberinstallationchoices ........ 158 3.6.4.4Impactofallowanceallocationontheallowancemarketandcompliancecosts ..................... 160 3.6.4.5Summaryofsimulationresults ................ 160 3.7PlantLevelDecision-MakingProcess ..................... 161 3.7.1Introduction ............................... 161 3.7.2Plant-LevelProblem .......................... 163 3.7.3First-OrderConditions ......................... 164 3.7.4CharacterizingaUnit'sSpotMarketFuelChoices .......... 165 3.7.4.1Case1:Necessaryconditionsforusingbothhighsulfurandlowsulfurspotmarketcoal ............... 166 3.7.4.2Case2:Necessaryconditionsforonlyhighsulfurspotmarketcoaluse ............................ 167 3.7.4.3Case3:Necessaryconditionsforonlylowsulfurspotmarketcoaluse ............................ 167 3.7.5ExcessDemandCorrespondence .................... 168 3.7.6CharacterizingaGeneratingUnit'sContractFuelChoices ...... 170 3.7.6.1Case1:NecessaryconditionsforhighsulfurcontractcoaluseatGeneratingUnit\i" .................. 170 3.7.6.2Case2:Necessaryconditionsforlowsulfurcontractcoaluseatgeneratingunit\i" .................. 171 3.7.7\Non-Aected"GeneratingUnitsatan\Aected"Plant ...... 171 7

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........................ 172 3.7.7.2\Non-aected"generatingunitsandhighsulfurcoalcontracts .................. 173 3.7.8ScrubberInstallationChoice ...................... 174 3.7.8.1Marginalcostofabatementwithandwithoutascrubber 174 3.7.9APlant'sPreferredOrderofScrubberInstallation .......... 176 3.7.9.1Atwhichgeneratingunitswillaplantinstallascrubber? 177 3.7.9.2Atwhatallowancepricewillaplantinstallascrubberatagivengeneratingunit? ................... 178 3.7.9.3Scrubberinstallationandhighsulfurcoalcontracts .... 179 3.7.9.4Scrubberinstallationandlowsulfurcoalcontracts ..... 181 3.7.10ScrubberInstallationExample:PlantwithTwoAectedGeneratingUnits ................................... 182 3.7.10.1Case1:Installnoscrubbers ................. 183 3.7.10.2Case2:Installonescrubber ................. 184 3.7.10.3Case3:Installtwoscrubbers ................ 185 3.7.11ScrubberInstallationExample:PlantwithOneAectedandOneNon-AectedGeneratingUnits ..................... 186 3.7.12SummaryofPlantLevelResults .................... 187 3.8CONCLUSIONS ................................ 188 ACONTRACTIMPACTSONCOSTSANDSCRUBBERINSTALLATIONINDIFFERENCEPRICE .............................. 199 A.1ImpactsonTotalCostsandComplianceCostsfromaCoalContractConstraint ................................. 199 A.2DerivationofCost-MinimizingInputUsetoFindPSA 205 BMARKETEQUILIBRIUMANDSIMULATIONDESIGN ............ 206 B.1ConditionsforExistenceofanEquilibrium .................. 206 B.2TechnicalDetailsofSimulationModelDesign ................ 208 REFERENCES ....................................... 211 BIOGRAPHICALSKETCH ................................ 216 8

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Table page 1-1DependentandControlVariables .......................... 43 1-2RegressionsResults .................................. 44 1-3PolicyVariables .................................... 45 1-4VariableEectsofSignicantVariables ....................... 46 2-1PhaseIComplianceCostEstimates ......................... 113 2-2HighSulfurCoalContract:Assumptions ...................... 114 2-3HighSulfurCoalContract:Results ......................... 114 2-4LowSulfurCoalContractExamples:Assumptions ................ 114 2-5LowSulfurCoalContractExamples:Results ................... 115 2-6ExampleEpsilonMagnitude:Case1 ........................ 116 2-7ExampleEpsilonMagnitude:Case2 ........................ 117 2-8ExampleEpsilonMagnitude ............................. 118 3-1Example:ContractCoalDistribution ........................ 190 3-2SulfurConversionbyFuelType ........................... 190 3-3SimulationResults .................................. 191 3-4ImpactofContractConstraintonScrubberChoice ................ 192 3-5SimulationswithEngineeringData ......................... 192 3-6ImpactsofaReductionintheAllowanceAllocationof10% ............ 192 3-7MathExample:TwoAectedUnits ......................... 192 9

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Figure page 2-1TheSO2AllowancePrice .............................. 119 2-2ExcessDemandCorrespondenceandComplianceCostSavingsfromFuelSwitchingOverAllowancePurchasing ............................. 119 2-3HighSulfurContract:ShiftinMinimumExcessDemand ............. 120 2-4NoContract:ComplianceCosts ........................... 120 2-5HighSulfurContract:ComplianceandTotalCosts ................ 120 2-6HighSulfurContract:RelativeSavingsfromContractCoal ............ 121 2-7CostSavingsfromUsingAllowancesOverFuelSwitching ............. 121 2-8LowSulfurContract ................................. 121 2-9NoContract:ComplianceCosts ........................... 122 2-10LowSulfurCoalContract:MCAs;ci 122 2-11LowSulfurCoalContract:MCAs;ci 122 2-12ComplianceCosts:PA=MCAs;si 123 2-13HighSulfurCoalContract .............................. 123 2-14LowSulfurCoalContract .............................. 123 2-15ExcessDemandCorrespondence:MCAs;siPSA 125 2-19ImpactofaLowSulfurCoalContract:MCAs;si>PSA 125 2-20ImpactofalowsulfurCoalContract:MCANSi
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........................ 195 3-7GivenScrubberChoice:ShiftfromHighSulfurContract ............. 196 3-8GivenScrubberChoice:ShiftfromLowSulfurContract ............. 196 3-9WithScrubberChoice:ShiftfromHighSulfurContract ............. 197 3-10WithScrubberChoice:ShiftfromLowSulfurContract .............. 198 B-1UpperSemi-ContinuousCorrespondence ...................... 210 B-2CorrespondencewithScrubberChoice ....................... 210 11

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Environmentalissueshavebecomeakeypoliticalissueoverthepastfortyyearsandhasresultedintheenactmentofmanydierentenvironmentalpolicies.Thethreeessaysinthisdissertationaddtotheliteratureofrenewableenergypoliciesandsulfurdioxideemissionstrading. Therstessayascertainswhichstatepoliciesareacceleratingdeploymentofnon-hydropowerrenewableelectricitygenerationcapacityintoastateselectricpowerindustry.Aswouldbeexpected,policiesthatleadtosignicantincreasesinactualrenewablecapacityinthatstateeithersetaRenewablesPortfolioStandardwithacertainlevelofrequiredrenewablecapacityoruseCleanEnergyFundstodirectlyfundutility-scalerenewablecapacityconstruction.AsurprisingresultisthatRequiredGreenPowerOptions,apolicythatmerelyrequiresallutilitiesinastatetooertheoptionforconsumerstopurchaserenewableenergyatapremiumrate,hasasizableimpactonnon-hydrorenewablecapacityinthatstate. Thesecondessaystudiesthetheoreticalimpactsfuelcontractconstraintshaveonaelectricitygeneratingunit'scompliancecostsofmeetingtheemissionscompliancerestrictionssetbyPhaseIoftheTitleIVSO2EmissionsTradingProgram.Fuelcontractconstraintsrestrictautility'sdegreesoffreedomincoalpurchasingoptions,whichcanleadtotheuseofamoreexpensivecomplianceoptionandhighercompliancecosts. 12

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Threedistinctlydierenttypesofpoliciesarefoundtobeeectiveatexpandingnon-hydrorenewablecapacitydeployment:acommand-and-controlpolicyknownasaRenewablesPortfolioStandard(RPS),atax-and-subsidyschemefacilitatedthroughaPublicBenetsFund(PBF)orCleanEnergyFund(CEF),andamarket-basedpolicywhereconsumerscanexpresstheirpreferencestobuypowerfromrenewableresourcesatapremiumprice. Thecommand-and-controlpolicytargetstheutilitybymandatingaspeciedlevelofcapacitythatmustcomefromrenewableenergy,andisgenerallyreferredtoasaRenewablesPortfolioStandard.Thetax-and-subsidyschemecollectsanadditionalchargeperunitofelectricityconsumedfromallcustomersinastateandplacestheproceedsintothisPublicBenetsFundorCleanEnergyFund.MoniesfromthePBF/CEFareusedto 15

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TheeconometricresultssupportmanyoftheconclusionsfromvariouscasestudieswithrespecttoRenewablesPortfolioStandardandCleanEnergyFundpolicies.Moreover,theresultspresentedherealsoshow,unlikepreviousstudies,thatthepotentialforoeringconsumerstheoptiontopurchaserenewableelectricityatahigherpricethanconventionallyproducedelectricitycanincreaserenewablecapacityinastate. Wiseretal.(2004)consideredallRenewablesPortfolioStandardsandfoundthepitfallsinthecurrentpolicydesigns.Somekeyproblemsinpolicydesignsincludeinsucientdurationandstabilityoftargets,weakenforcement,andnarrowapplicabilityofthepolicy.Otherconditionsthatmayimpactapolicy'seectivenessarethepresenceoflong-termpowerpurchasersandpoliticalandregulatorystability. 16

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Chenetal.(2007)comparestheresultsfrom28policyimpactprojectionsforstateorutility-levelRenewablesPortfolioStandardsandndsthat(1)theimpactonelectricitypricesisminimal,(2)windpowerisexpectedtobetheprimaryrenewableusedtomeetpolicyrequirements,and(3)thebenet-costestimatesrelyheavilyonuncertainassumptions,suchasrenewabletechnologycosts,naturalgasprices,andpossiblecarbonemissionspolicyinthefuture. Bolingeretal.(2001)describeindetail14dierentstateCleanEnergyFunds,enumeratingtheregulatorybackground,fundingapproaches,thecurrentstatusofthefund,andtheresultingimpactsonrenewableenergy.Programsthatfundutility-scaleprojectsarefoundtobethemosteectiveatincreasingrenewablecapacitydeployment. WiserandOlson(2004)examineparticipationin66utilitygreenpowerprograms.Theyndlocalgreenpowerprogramshaveresidentialparticipationratesrangingfrom0.02%to6.45%andaveraging1.39%.However,thisstudydoesnotlookatanystate-levelRequiredGreenPowerOptionsthatrequireallutilitiesinastatetooerconsumerstheoptiontopurchaserenewableenergy.Thepaperfocusesonparticipationratesof 17

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Birdetal.(2005)summarizefederalrenewableenergypolicies,generalmarketfactors,andstate-specicfactors,suchasstatepolicies,thataredrivingthedeploymentofwindpower.Thekeymarketfactorsarethevolatilityinnaturalgaspricesduringtheearly2000sandtheloweredwindenergygenerationcostsduetolargerwindturbines,whichhavecombinedtomakewindpowermorecompetitivewithnaturalgas-redgeneration. Onlyonepaperhasattemptedtoeconometricallyestimatetheeectsofstaterenewableenergypolicyonrenewablecapacity.MenzandVachon(2006)useordinaryleastsquarestoestimatestatepolicyeectsonwindpowercapacityandgenerationwithapaneldatasetfor39statesfor1998-2002whilecontrollingforwindpoweravailability,retailchoice,andpolicydummyvariablesforPublicBenetsFund,RenewablesPortfolioStandard,RequiredGreenPowerOption,andfuelmixdisclosure. 18

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Thedependentvariableisthetotalnon-hydropowerrenewablenameplatecapacityintheelectricpowerindustry(Cit),whichincludesallnameplatecapacityofutilities,independentpowerproducers(IPPs),andindustrialorcommercialcombinedheatandpowerproducersthatusesolar,wind,geothermal,orbiomassasanenergysource. 19

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Theeectsofstaterenewableenergypoliciesarebestestimatedusingtotalstatenon-hydrorenewablecapacityasthedependentvariablebecauseseveralpoliciesmandateorfundaspecicamountofrenewablecapacity.Policiesthatdonotsetspecicrenewablecapacityrequirementscanbemeasuredincapacitytermsbycontrollingforeachstate'smarketsize,whichwillbediscussedinmoredetailinSection4. Alargeamountofrenewablecapacitycreatedbefore1996originatedfromthePublicUtilitiesRegulatoryPolicyAct(PURPA),afederalpolicypassedin1978requiringutilitiestopurchaseelectricityfromQualifyingFacilities(QFs),whichareIPPsthatmeetspecicrequirementsandincluderenewable-basedfacilities.Foravarietyofreasons,theeectsofPURPAvariedfromstatetostate.Statedummyvariables(Si)measuretheseeectsandotherunchangingstatefactors,suchasrenewableresourceavailability. 7 20

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1.4.1EconomicandPoliticalVariables:Wit 1-1 summarizesthedataforthedependentvariable(RENEWABLECAPACITY)andthecontrolvariables. withoutanyconsiderationofcostsorenvironmentalimpacts.AnycapacityshutdownduetoPURPAcontractexpirationafter1996willdecreasethepositiveeectsofanyenactedpolicy.ThereisalsothepossibilityofastatechangingitsinterpretationandenforcementofPURPAafter1996,whichwouldnotbecapturedinthemodel.9 21

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Thefollowingthreevariablesareincludedinthemodeltocontrolformarketstructure.Twoofthesevariablesarehydropowercapacity(PCTHYDROPOWER)andnuclearpowercapacity(PCTNUCLEAR)asapercentageoftotalcapacityexcludingnon-hydrorenewables.Hydropowershouldleadtolessnon-hydrorenewablecapacitybecausehydropowerhaslowmarginalproductioncosts,andthecapacitytypicallywasconstructedmanyyearsago.Withlowermarginalcostsandsunkcapitalcostsassociatedwithhydropower,hydropowerwillbetherstrenewableenergytobeimplementedbecauseitismoreeconomicallycompetitivethanmostnon-hydropowerrenewablesavailabletotheelectricpowerindustry.Consumerand/orpolicydrivendemandforrenewable-basedelectricitymaynotdierentiatebetweenhydropowerandotherrenewablesources,whichallowshydropowertobeasubstituteofnon-hydrorenewables. Similartohydropower,nuclearpowerhaslowmarginalcostsofproducingbaseloadelectricity,hassunkcapitalcosts,andhasnoemissions.Ifnon-hydrorenewablecapacityisdeployedbasedoneconomicfactors,givensimilaremissionsproles,greaternuclearorhydropowercapacityshoulddecreasetheamountofnon-hydrorenewablecapacity. Analternativepossibilityisthatregulatorsinstateswithlargeamountsofnuclearpowerencouragepowerproducerstouseotherresourcetypestomeetnewdemand.Renewableenergymaybeusedbyutilitiestoalleviatepressurefromenvironmentalistsovernuclearpower,thusleadingtogreaterdeploymentofrenewableenergycapacityinstateswithlargeamountsofnuclearcapacity.ThesignofPCTNUCLEARwilldependonwhichofthesetwofactorshasthelargereectonpowerproducers. 22

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Florida,Hawaii,Louisiana,andTexasusethebyproductofsugarproductionfromsugarcaneasabiomassfuel.Forexample,inHawaiisugarcaneisoneoftheprimarysourcesofbiomass.DuetomarketconditionsmostofthesugarcanefarmsinHawaiiwereshutdownoverthe1990s,removingthefuelsourceformuchofthebiomasscapacityinthestate.Changesinsugarcaneproductionarelikelytohaveanimpactontheamountofbiomasscapacityinastate.Thechangeintotaltonsofsugarcaneproductionfrom1996levels(SUGARCANEPRODCHANGE)isincludedinthemodeltocontrolforitsimpactonrenewablecapacity.SUGARCANEPRODCHANGEistheonlycontrolvariablenotinteractedwithgeneration. Apoliticalvariableisincludedtomeasurechangesinrenewableenergypreferencesinastate.TheLeagueofConservationVoters(LCV)ratingisusedtodetermineifpolicypreferencesforenvironmentalprotectionincreaserenewableenergycapacityindependentfromitspolicyeects.TheLeagueofConservationVoters(LCV)annuallypublishestheNationalEnvironmentalScorecard,whichratesallcongressionalvotesonconservationalissuesbyeachrepresentative. Anaverageofallthevotesbyastate'srepresentativesistakentogettheaverageHouseofRepresentativesscore(LCVSCORE).ThescoresfromtheHouseofRepresentativesareusedinsteadoftheSenatebecauserepresentativeshaveashorterterminoce 26

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AhighLCVratingforastateindicatesthatthestate'sconstituentsareenvironmentallyfriendlyandaremorelikelytodemandelectricityfromrenewableenergy,allotherthingsbeingequal.ConsumersorenvironmentalgroupsinstateswithhigherLCVratingsmaybemorelikelytopressureutilitiestousegreateramountsofrenewableenergynomatterwhich,ifany,policieshavebeenenactedbythestate. PoliciesmaybeendogenoustohigherLCVratingsbecausestateswithcongresspersonswhovoteforfederalpro-environmentalpoliciesmaybemorelikelytoenactstatepro-environmentalpolicies.ThepolicyendogeneityissueisnotaddressedinthebodyofthispaperbecauseLCVSCOREisnotastrongenoughpredictorofstatepoliciestobeasatisfactoryinstrument.NotealsothatremovingLCVSCOREfromtheregressiondoesnotchangetheotherresults. 27

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RegulatorypoliciesdescribedbelowincludeaRenewablesPortfolioStandardwithaCapacityRequirement,RenewablesPortfolioStandardwithaGeneration/SalesRequirement,CleanEnergyFund,NetMetering,InterconnectionStandards,StateGovernmentGreenPowerPurchasing,andRequiredGreenPowerOptions.Table 3-2 summarizesthedataforthepolicyvariables. TherstpolicythatwillbediscussedisaRenewablesPortfolioStandard,whichspeciesanamountofastate'selectricityproduction,sales,orcapacitythatmustberenewable-based.RenewablesPortfolioStandardscanbedierentiatedintothreemainstructuralforms,policiesthatset(1)mandatoryrenewablegenerationorsaleslevels,(2)voluntaryrenewablegenerationorsalesgoals,and(3)mandatoryrenewableenergycapacityrequirements. ThersttypeofRenewablesPortfolioStandardsetsapercentageoftotalgenerationorsalesforeachpowerproducer/retailerthatmustoriginatefromrenewablesources,usuallyincreasingeveryyearoreveryfewyears.Forexample,Arizona'stieredrenewablelevelsthathavetobemetbeganat0.2%in2001andincreasedby0.2%eachyear, 28

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ThedierencesbetweenRenewablesPortfolioStandardscanbeaccountedforinthemodelbytwovariables:avariablethatmeasuresthesizeoftherenewablegenerationorsalesrequirement(RPS:SALESREQ)andavariablethatmeasuresthesizeofthecapacityrequirement(RPS:CAPREQ). 29

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Althoughthispolicydoesnotdirectlyrequiretheconstructionofrenewablecapacity,anincreaseintherequiredamountofrenewablegenerationmayleadtoaneedformorerenewablecapacity.Ifcurrentlevelsofrenewablecapacitycannotmeetafuturegeneration/salesrequirement,additionalcapacitywillneedtobeconstructed. CleanEnergyFundsarepaidforthroughSystemBenetsCharges(SBCs),whichareadditionalchargespaidbyallconsumersontheirelectricityconsumption.SBCscanbe 30

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Interconnectionstandards(INTERCONSTANDARDS)areasetofguidelinesusedtosafelyandeectivelyconnectindividualrenewablegeneratingunitstotheelectricutilitypowergrid.Somehavetechnicalrequirements,suchasgeneratortypeandsizelimits,mandatorysafetyandperformancestandards,andinsurancerequirementsthatmustbemetbeforeanetmeteringcustomercanconnecttotheutility'snetwork.Interconnectionstandardsmustbemetbyanycommercial,industrial,residential,orgovernmentcustomerthatdecidestoconnecttothegrid.Withoutthesestatepolicies,thenetmeteringconnectionscouldcausemajorproblemsforthegrid,powerproducers,andotherpurchasers.Interconnectionstandardsincreasethecostsofhookinguptothegridfornetmeteringandmayosetsomeofthenegativeeectfromnetmetering.INTERCONSTANDARDSisalsointeractedwithGENtocontrolformarketsize. 32

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ARequiredGreenPowerOptionrequiresutilitiestooercustomerstheoptiontopurchaserenewablepoweratapremium.Therearetwoversionsofhowtheseoptionsareimplemented.Themostcommontypegivesconsumerstheoptiontomakevoluntarycontributions,calledvoluntaryrenewableenergytarisinreturnfortheguaranteethatsomeoftheconsumer'selectricityconsumptionisproducedfromrenewablesources.Consumerspurchaseelectricityatthemarketpriceandthenpayapremiumforblocksofgreenelectricity,usuallyabout$2per100kWh.Thesecondtypeallowstheproducerstochargeconsumersahigherrateperkilowatt-hour,butonlytocovertheadditionalcostsforelectricityfromrenewablesources.Boththepremiumblockrateandpremiumperkilowatt-hourratemustbeapprovedbythestate'sPublicUtilitiesCommission(PUC). RequiredGreenPowerOptionselicitcustomerpreferencesandacrudemeasureofwillingnesstopayforrenewableenergybyallowingconsumerstovoluntarilypayhigherpricesfortheknowledgethattheyaresupportingrenewable-basedelectricity.Thecreationofthisnichemarketforrenewableenergygenerationshouldhaveapositiveimpactonrenewablecapacity.ThevariableREQGREENPOWEROPTisadummyvariable,whichisinteractedwithGENinthemodeltomeasuretheeectofthepolicybasedonthestate'smarketsize(REQGREENPOWEROPT*GEN). 33

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Thepercentageofothercapacitycomprisedofhydropowerinteractedwithgeneration(PCTHYDRO*GEN)isnotstatisticallysignicant.However,thecoecientforthepercentageofothercapacitycomprisedofnuclearpowerinteractedwithgeneration(PCTNUCLEAR*GEN)ispositiveandstatisticallysignicant.Aonestandarddeviation(12.46%)increaseinthepercentageofnon-renewablecapacitycomprisedofnuclearpowerleadstoanincreaseof2.09MWperterawatt-hourofgenerationinastate.Sothisonestandarddeviationchangeinastatewithamediangenerationlevel(51.15TWh)leadstoanincreaseof107MW.Itispossiblethatutilitieswithmorenuclearpoweraredeployingmorerenewablecapacitybecausetheutilitiesarefocusedondiversifyingitsgenerationmix,eithertodecreasetheutilities'useoffossilfuelsandloweremissionsortoalleviatepressurefromenvironmentalistswhoareupsetabouttheuseofnuclearpower. ThecoecientsontheaverageLCVscorefortheHouseofRepresentativesinteractedwithgeneration(LCVSCORE*GEN)arepositiveandsignicant.Aonestandarddeviationincrease(26.51points)inastate'sLCVscoreleadstoanincreaseof0.663MWperterawatt-hourofgeneration.Aonestandarddeviationincreaseinastatewithmedian 34

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Asexpected,renewableenergycostinteractedwithgeneration(RENEWCOST*GEN)hasanegativeandstatisticallysignicantcoecient.Aone-centperkWhdecreaseinrenewableenergycostleadstoanincreaseof0.712MWperterawatthourofgeneration.Inastatewithmediangeneration,aonecentdecreaseinRENEWCOSTleadstoanincreaseof36MW.RENEWCOSTdecreasedby1.79centsfrom1996to2003,whichimpliesanincreaseof65MWforastatewithmediangeneration.Thiseectdoesnotjustincludethetechnologicalchangesinrenewableenergy.AsmentionedinSection4,allfederalproductionincentivesareincludedinthecostsofproductionforeachrenewablesource,capturingthefederalpolicychangesaswellasthetechnologicaladvances.Theyearvariablecoecients,whichexplainthesameimpactsasRENEWCOST,areexplainedindetailinSection5.4. Thecoecientonaverageborderstateretailpriceinteractedwithgeneration(BORDERPRICE*GEN)isnegativeandismarginallystatisticallysignicantonlyinSpecication3ofTable3.Higherelectricitypricesdonotappeartoresultinmorerenewableenergycapacityconstruction.Infact,thenegativecoecientimpliesthatanincreaseofonecentinthepriceofelectricityleadstoasmalldecreaseinrenewablecapacityby13MWinastatewithmediangeneration.Aonestandarddeviation(2.07cents)increaseinpriceleadstoadecreaseofonly27MW.Itispossiblethatconsumersinastatewithhighelectricitypriceshavelessofanappetiteforfurtherincreasesinpricesthroughmoreexpensiverenewablegeneration. 33 35

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ToalleviateanyconcernsaboutFUELCOST,anadditionalspecicationisestimatedreplacingFUELCOSTwithvevariables:averagecostofcoal,averagecostofoil,averagecostofnaturalgas,percentofnon-renewablecapacitycomprisedofcoal,andpercentofnon-renewablecapacitycomprisedofnaturalgas.Naturalgasandcoalcapacityaretreatedinthesamemannerashydropowerandnuclearpowercapacityinthemodel.EachvariableisinteractedwithGEN,justliketheothercontrolvariables. Ahigherpercentageoftotalnon-renewablecapacitycomprisedofcoaliscorrelatedwithmorerenewablecapacity,whichgivessomesupportthatstateswithdirtierconventionalcapacityusemorerenewablecapacity.Asthepriceofcoalincreases,lessrenewablecapacityisconstructed.Thesetworesultssupporttheideathattheemissionsrequirementsutilitiesmustmeetareadrivingforcetorenewabledeployment,whileeconomiccompetitivenessinthemarketdoesnothavemuchofanimpact.Cautionisnecessaryininterpretingtheresultswiththeadditionalsetoffuelvariablesbecausetherearemanymissingobservationsthatmustbeextrapolated.Thedummyvariablesthatcontrolformissingobservationsforcoalandnaturalgasarebothstatistically 36

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ThecoecientonSUGARCANEPRODCHANGEisinsignicant.Themissingfuelcostdummyvariableinteractedwithgeneration(MISSINGFUELCOST*GEN)controlsforanymeasurementerrorcausedbytheextrapolationofthe38missingdatapointsandisinsignicantaswell. CEF:CAPFUNDED,whichmeasurestheamountofcapacitythatthefundhasagreedtohelpnance,hasamarginallystatisticallysignicantcoecient.Thisincludescapacitythathasbeenagreedupon,buthasnotyetbeenbuilt,eitherbecausetheprojecthasnotbeennishedortheprojectislatercanceled.ForeachmegawattofcapacitythattheCleanEnergyFundhasfundedoragreedtofundinthenearfuture,approximately0.206MWhasbeenconstructed.Thisisnotsignicantlydierentthanthefractionofcapacitythathasactuallybeenconstructedasof2003,whichwas0.33MWper1MW.Eventhoughactualrenewablecapacityisprobablynotconstructedlinearlyoverthelifetimeofthepolicy,theestimatesfromthelinearinterpolationseemtoberepresentativeofactualcapacityconstructionduetotheCleanEnergyFunds. 37

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ThemostinterestingresultfromthemodelistheeectthatRequiredGreenPowerOptionshaveonrenewablecapacity.ThecoecientforREQGREENPOWEROPT*GENhasapositiveandstatisticallysignicantcoecientandhassomeofthelargesteectsonrenewablecapacityofanyvariable,whereenactmentleadstorenewablecapacityincreasingby3.46MWperterawatt-hourofgeneration.Astatewithamediangenerationlevel(51.15TWh)thatenactsaRequiredGreenPowerOptionwouldhaveanincreaseof177MW.WashingtonhasthelargestelectricitymarketofstatesthathaveenactedaRequiredGreenPowerOption(100.1TWh),whichwouldleadtoanincreaseinrenewablecapacityof346MW.Togivesomeperspectiveontheseresults,theestimatedimpactsintotalrenewablecapacitycanbeexpressedintermsofapercentageoftotalcapacityinastate.Dependingonthestate,aRequiredGreenPowerOptionleadstoanincreaseofabout1.2-1.6%. 34 38

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TherearemultiplereasonsfortheinsignicanceofRPS:SALESREQ*GEN.First,mostRenewablesPortfolioStandardswithsalesrequirementshavebeenenactedfairlyrecentlyandcurrentlyhavelowrequirements.Powersuppliersmaybeabletomeettheirlowinitialrequirementsbyusingcurrentrenewablecapacity.Second,someofthestatesimplementingthesepolicieshaveavailablehydropowercapacityalreadyinplacethatisconsideredeligibletomeetaportionofthesecurrentlylowmandates,whichdecreasesthepolicies'eectivenessinencouragingnewnon-hydrorenewablecapacitydeploymentinastate.Third,somestatesallowthepurchaseofRenewableEnergyCredits(RECs),whicharecerticatesthatrepresenttheenvironmentalrightsofrenewableelectricity,insteadofactualgeneration.Manyofthesesamestatesallowpowerproducers/retailerstopurchaseRECsfromout-of-statepowerproducerstomeettheirin-staterequirements.Allthreeofthesefactorswilldecreasethepolicy'simpactsonin-staterenewablecapacitydeployment.AfewmoreyearsofdatashouldresultinRPS:SALESREQ*GENtohavestatisticallysignicantimpactsonrenewablecapacityinitsstate. Neithernetmeteringnorinterconnectionstandardsappeartohaveanimpactonrenewablecapacity.ThecoecientsonNETMETERINGandINTERCONSTANDARDSarestatisticallyinsignicant. 39

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Threeregulatorypoliciesappeartobeeectiveatincreasingrenewablecapacitydeploymentinastate.Thesignicantresultsfromtheseregulatorypoliciesconrmmanyofthendingsfrompriorcasestudies,whichndRenewablesPortfolioStandardswithCapacityRequirementsandCleanEnergyFundshaveincreasedrenewablecapacity.Anadditionalpolicy,MandatoryGreenPowerOptions,isalsofoundtoincreasecapacitydeploymentinastateaswell. ThepreviousempiricalstudyfoundPublicBenetsFunds,whichincludeanyCleanEnergyFundinastate,tobeinsignicantintheirmodel.MypaperndsthatCleanEnergyFundswithutility-scaleprojectsincreasethedeploymentofrenewablecapacityinastate.ByusingSystemBenetsCharges(SBCs)astatecaneectivelymakeconsumerspayforcleanerenergywithoutcreatingadierentmarketforrenewableenergydemand.SimilartothecasestudyndingsbyBolingeretal.(2001,2004,2005),largerutility-scaleprojectsmakeCleanEnergyFundsmoreeectiveatincreasingrenewablecapacitydeploymentinastate. ThispaperndsthatdierenttypesofRenewablesPortfolioStandardshavedierenteectsonrenewablecapacity.EachmegawattofcapacitymandatedbyRenewablesPortfolioStandardswithCapacityRequirementsresultsinthedeploymentofonemegawattofadditionalrenewablecapacityinastate.ButrecentRenewablesPortfolioStandardsthatmandategenerationorsaleslevelsappearnottohavestatisticallysignicanteects.TheseresultsmirrorPetersik'scasestudyinthatonlyRenewables 41

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StatewideRequiredGreenPowerOptionsappeartohavebeenaseectiveasanyotherpolicy.Forcingutilitiestooercustomerstheoptiontopurchaserenewable-basedelectricityatareasonablepremiumratedrasticallyincreasesrenewablecapacityinastate.Thepolicyhasagreaterimpactinlargerelectricitymarketsandappearstobeeectiveregardlessofastate'spoliticalenvironment. Therearemajorrenewablepolicyimplicationsiftheseresultsholdwhenadditionalyearsareeventuallyincludedinthemodel.OnlyvestateshavecurrentlyimplementedRequiredGreenPowerOptionseventhoughcreatingastatewidegreenpowermarketappearstobeaseectiveatincreasingrenewableenergycapacityinastateasacommand-and-controlschemeofaRenewablesPortfolioStandardsortax-and-subsidyschemeofaCleanEnergyFund.Stategovernmentpurchasingagreementsofrenewableenergyappeartobenomorethanwindowdressingforpoliticianstoshowtheirsupporttotheenvironmentalcommunity,andadditionalfundingtorenewablepowerproducers. Theremainingpoliciesinthemodeldonotappeartoimpactrenewableenergycapacityconstructioninthetheelectricpowerindustry.Stategovernmentgreenpowerpurchasingdoesnotincreaserenewableelectricitydemandenoughtodrivecapacityconstruction.Netmeteringandinterconnectionstandardstargetresidentialandcommercialcapacityanddonotimpactelectricpowerindustrydecisions. Theimportantpolicyimplicationsthatarisefromtheresultsindicatepolicymakershaveawidearrayoftoolsattheirdisposaltopromoterenewableenergydeploymentinastatetomeetenvironmentalandenergysecuritypolicygoals.ThearrayofpolicymechanismswillbecomeevenmoreusefultostategovernmentsiftheprospectofU.S.climatechange/carbonemissionspolicybecomesareality. 42

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DependentandControlVariables RENEWABLECAPACITY(MW)348.7827.60.006177.4178.5GEN(TWh)73.8264.984.95385.6351.15PCTHYDROPOWER(Percentage)14.1420.680.0091.596.26PCTNUCLEAR(Percentage)11.1312.460.0056.207.54BORDERPRICE(2002cents/kWh)7.582.074.8214.496.68RENEWCOST(2002cents/kWh)6.930.5856.007.796.94FUELCOST(2002dollars/MMBtu)2.0860.9870.6017.4311.861LCVSCORE(0to100)43.0626.510.0100.038.0SUGARCANEPRODCHANGE88.95599.33-1707.04882.00.0

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RegressionsResults CEF:CAPFUNDED(MW)0.1980.1440.206(0.107)*(0.145)(0.124)*RPS:CAPREQ(MW)1.2451.1441.142(0.175)***(0.168)***(0.168)***RPS:EFFECTIVEGENREQ0.1530.1080.100(0.056)***(0.077)(0.071)PCTSTATEGREENPOWERPURCHASING*GEN0.0260.013-0.002(0.014)*(0.017)(0.016)REQUIREDGREENPOWEROPT*GEN3.5393.3183.457(0.667)***(1.207)***(1.166)***NETMETERING*GEN0.093-0.237-0.033(0.205)(0.214)(0.227)INTERCONSTANDARD*GEN-0.246-0.241-0.240(0.211)(0.195)(0.210)SUGARCANEPRODUCTIONCHANGE(Tons)-0.011-0.007(0.023)(0.023)GEN(1TWh)-0.184(1.150)FUELCOST($/mmBtu)*GEN-0.154-0.124(0.107)(0.109)FUELCOSTMISSING*GEN-1.261-1.167(0.843)(0.802)BORDERPRICE(Cents/kWh)*GEN0.199-0.259(0.207)(0.117)**RENEWCOST(Cents/kWh)*GEN-0.712(0.211)***LCVSCORE*GEN0.0240.025(0.011)**(0.011)**PCTHYDRO*GEN0.018-0.027(0.028)(0.024)PCTNUCLEAR*GEN0.1430.168(0.043)***(0.052)***YR1997*GEN-0.048(0.151)YR1998*GEN-0.142(0.186)YR1999*GEN-0.187(0.182)YR2000*GEN-0.269(0.199)YR2001*GEN0.322(0.247)YR2002*GEN0.250(0.199)YR2003*GEN0.530(0.226)**CONSTANT309.103413.745267.888(7.689)***(55.340)***(50.741)***Observations400400400StateFixed-Eects505050R-squared0.5980.6340.646 RobustStandardErrorsinParentheses;*signicantat10%;**signicantat5%;***signicantat1%

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PolicyVariables CEF:CAPFUNDED851RENEWABLESPORTFOLIOSTANDARD1466RPS:CAPREQ427RPS:SALESREQ639NETMETERING31187INTERCONSTANDARDS2190STATEPURCHASING:PCTREQ614REQGREENPOWEROPT516

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VariableEectsofSignicantVariables VariableMeanStd.Dev.IncreasePerUnitperTWhStd.Dev.inMedianGen.State RENEWCOST(2002cents/kWh)6.930.59-0.725MW-36MWBORDERPRICE(2002cents/kWh)7.582.07-0.235MW-27MWPCTNUCLEAR11.1312.460.170MW107MWLCVSCORE(0-100)43.0626.510.025MW34MW EectofEnactingaPolicyMeanStd.Dev.PerUnitEectImpactinMedianGen.State PBF:CAPFUNDED8.2061.210.206MWper1.0MW20.6%ofFundedCapacityRPS:CAPREQ14.0578.301.142MWper1.0MW114%ofReq.Cap.REQGREENPOWEROPT0.020.153.457MWperTWh177MW Note1:ResultsareforSpec.3excludingRENEWCOST,whichisfromSpec.2.Note2:Allothervariablesarestatisticallyinsignicant.

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Inthispaperamodelofunit-levelSO2complianceisconstructedthatincorporatesthepresenceofcoalcontractstoexaminehowlong-termcoalcontractsaectutilitycompliancechoicesandaunit'scompliancecosts.Asexpected,thepresenceofcoalcontractconstraintsleadstocompliancecostsinexcessofthehypotheticalleast-costsolution.ThepresenceofbindinghighsulfurcontractconstraintsthatwerelikelyinPhaseIoftheTitleIVSO2ProgrammayexplainthelowerthanexpectedallowancepricesinPhaseIthataccompaniedcompliancecoststhatwereabovetheleast-costsolution.ItisalsofoundthatthepresenceofbindinglowsulfurcoalconstraintsthatmayexistunderCAIR,whichmayleadtoallowancepricesthatarehigherthanwithoutthebindingconstraint.Theeectsofthecontractconstraintseemcounter-intuitive:bindinghighsulfurcoalconstraintsleadingtolowerexcessdemandforallowances,whichcouldreducetheallowancemarketprice.Bindinglowsulfurcoalconstraintsleadingtohigherexcessdemandforallowances,whichcouldincreasetheallowancemarketprice.Theinteractionbetweenthecontractconstraintsandthediscretenatureofthescrubberchoiceleadstotheseunexpectedresults. 2.2.1TitleIVoftheCleanAirActAmendment 48

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Anadditional168unitsparticipatedinPhaseIin1996basedontherulesestablishedbyEPAallowingaplantto\opt-in"units(7units),designatesubstitutionunits(160units),ordesignatecompensatingunits(1unit)aspartoftheirPhaseIcomplianceplans.Thevoluntaryparticipationoftheseadditionalunitsresultedinatotalof431aectedgeneratingunitsunderPhaseI.A\substitutionunit"isaunitthatwouldeventuallybeaectedinPhaseIIthatvoluntarilyenrolledintoPhaseItomeetsomeoralloftherequiredemissionsreductionsforaPhaseIunit(SotkiewiczandHolt,2005).Substitutionunitsreceiveanallowanceallocationbasedonitshistoricalheatinput.AutilitymaydecidetoreduceitselectricityproductionataPhaseIaectedunit.Todoso,theutilitymusthavea\compensationunit"fromthePhaseIIunitstheutilityoperatestocoverthenecessaryadditionalelectricity.ThiscompensationunitisthenbroughtintoPhaseIandgivenanallowanceallocationbasedonitshistoricalheatinput.IndustrialsourcesofSO2emissionscouldusetheopt-inprovisionandvoluntarilyenrollintoPhaseIandreceive 49

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ThebankingprovisionhasallowedutilitiestotradeintertemporallywithutilitiesusingthesubstantialallowancebankaccumulatedthroughPhaseIforcomplianceinPhaseIIleadingtoannualemissionlevelsinexcessof10milliontonsineachyearfrom2000to2005. 50

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GeneratingunitsstillreceivetheirallowanceallocationasdenedunderPhaseII.Beginningin2010,theemissionsvalueoftheallowancesforunitsintheCAIRregioniscutinhalffrom1.2to0.6lbs.SO2/MMBtuofheatinputwhichimpliesaunitmustholdtwoTitleIVallowancesforeachtonofactualemissions.Startingin2015unitsmusthold2.86TitleIVallowancesforeverytonofemissions,whichtranslatestoanallocationofapproximately0.4lbs.SO2/MMBtu.MeanwhilegeneratingunitsoutsidetheCAIRregionwillcontinueoperateundertheTitleIV,PhaseIIProgramwithtradesallowedtotakeplacebetweenCAIRandPhaseIIunits.UnitsunderPhaseIIandCAIRparticipateinthesameallowancemarketandfacethesamemarketallowanceprice. Thespikeinallowancepricesuptoover$1,600in2006seeninFigure 2.8 mayhavebeenaresultoftheproposalandenactmentofCAIR.UtilitiescouldhavechosentobankallowancesinsteadofsellingallowancesinthemarkettoensuretheirabilitytocoverrequirementsatthebeginningofCAIR.Itisstilluncertainwhatledtothetemporaryspikeinallowanceprices,butitappearslikelythatitwasatemporaryreactiontothepolicyenvironmentorothermarketconditionsastheallowancepricehasquicklydecreasedtoitscurrentpriceoflessthan$600/ton. 51

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2.3.1TitleIV:PhaseI 2-1 ,itcanbeseenthat,ingeneral,thecompliancecostestimatesbeforePhaseItookeectwerehigherthantheestimatesmadeafterPhaseIbecameeectiveandactualdatacouldbeusedintheestimates.Thepre-policyestimatesrangeashighas$1.34billion/yearwithmostestimatesatleast$860million/year.Theactualcostestimatesaretowardsthelowerendofthisrangebetween$730-$990million/year. Thereareseveralreasonsforthedierencesbetweeninitialestimatesandactualaggregateindustrycompliancecosts.Themostimportantfactorwasthedecreaseindeliveredlowsulfurcoalprices.Attheunitlevel,lowerlowsulfurcoalpricesdecreasedthemarginalcostofreducingemissionsthroughfuelswitching,whichwasthecomplianceoptionchosenby52%ofallaectedunits,while32%ofaectedunitschosetopurchaseallowances,10%installedascrubber,3%shutdown,and3%choseothermethods. Keohane(2002)simulateswhichgeneratingunitswouldhaveinstalledscrubbersunderauniformemissions-ratestandardandndsthatthetotalnumberofscrubberswouldhavebeenone-thirdhigherthantheactualnumberofinstalledscrubbersunderthe 52

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IntheinitialyearsofPhaseI,manyrmswerenotactiveparticipantsintheallowancemarket,choosingtoswitchfuelsandbankallowancesorshiftallowancesbetweenonlytheirownunits(Hart(1998);Ellermanetal.(1998)).Thermsthatdidparticipatemainlytradedallowanceswithinthesameutilitycompany.BohiandBurtraw(1997)ndthatintra-utilitytradingaccountsfortwo-thirdsoftheallowancetransactionswhiletheremainingone-thirdwereinter-utilitytrades.Sincemosttradesweremadebetweenunitsownedbythesamecompany,tradingbetweentwogeneratingunitsatthesameplantwouldbeacommonoccurrence.Manystudiessuggestedstatepublicutilityregulationsandotherstatelawsasareasonfortheinecienciesresultingfromthisself-sucientbehavior(Bohi(1994);BohiandBurtraw(1997);Swift(2001)). Arimura(2002)useseconometricapproachestostudytheimpactofPUCregulationoncompliancechoices,andndsthatutilitiesthatfacePUCregulationaremorelikelytoswitchfuelsinsteadofpurchasingallowancesforcompliance. Winebrakeetal.(1995)estimatedthecostinecienciesfromstategovernmentrestrictionsonautility'sallowancetrading,andestimatesthetotalcostestimatesforthersttenyearsofTitleIV(1995-2005).Acommand-and-controlapproachwasestimatedtoresultincompliancecostsof$4.19billiongreaterthanintheunrestrictedpermittradingsystem($5.02billion,oranaverageof$502million/year)andanestimatedallowancepriceof$143/ton. Winebrakeetal.(1995)simulatestheadditionalcostsfromrestrictionsonbetween-statetradingthatwereunderconsiderationbybothNewYorkandWisconsin.Bothstateswere 53

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SomestudiesfurtherexplaintheinecienciesbyexaminingtheactuallostcostsavingsthatarespecicallyaresultofstatePUCregulationunderPhaseI.Carlsonetal.(2000)ndthattheactualcompliancecostswere$339million(59%)greaterin1996thantheleast-costsolution.Thestudyconcludesthedierencebetweenactualcompliancecostsandtheleast-costcompliancemaybeattributableto\adjustmentcostsassociatedwithchangingfuelcontractsandcapitalexpendituresaswellasregulatorypolicies."SotkiewiczandHolt(2005)ndthatPUCregulationsresultedin$131millionoftheadditionalcompliancecostsrelativetotheleastcostsolution.However,thereisasignicantamountofcompliancecoststhatremainedunexplained. 54

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Swinton(2004)followsthesameapproachexceptitexpandsthestudyto40plantswithdatafrom1994to1998,andintroducesthepossibilitythatlong-termcoalcontractsmayprohibitutilitiesfromswitchingcoaltypes,althoughitisnotmodeled.Bothstudiesndtheactualutility-levelcompliancecoststobemuchhigherthantheestimatedleast-costsolution. CogginsandSwinton(1996)useanoutputdistancefunctiontoestimatetheshadowpriceofSO2emissionsabatementforelectricpowerplantsinWisconsin.Thestudyestimatedtheallowanceshadowpricetobegreaterthantheobservedallowancepricesatthetime,whichtheyassertmaybepartiallyexplainedbyWisconsin'sstrictstateregulationsonSO2emissions. SeveralstudieshaveshownanalyticallyorthroughsimulationmodelsthatstatePUCregulationscanleadtoinecienciesattheutility-level.BohiandBurtraw(1992)developamodelofutilitydecision-makinggiventwocomplianceoptions,purchasingallowancesorinstallingemissionscontroltechnology.BohiandBurtrawderivetworecommendationssothatstateregulationdoesnotresultininecientcompliancechoicesbyautility.First,ifautility'sallowedreturnislessthanitscostofcapitalwithrespecttobothcomplianceoptions,symmetricalcostrecoveryrulesarerecommendedasuneventreatmentofcostrecoverymaycreateincentivesforautilitytomakesuboptimalcompliancechoices.Second,ifautilityisallowedtoearnmorethanitscostofcapitalwithregardtoboth 55

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Joskow(1988,1990)ndsthatduringperiodsinwhichthespotmarketcoalpriceswerelowerthanthecontractedprices,thecontractpricesfailedtoadjustdownward.Thisdownwardrigidityofcoalpricescanleadtoutilitycoalcostsbeinghigherthanisoptimalintheshortrun.Somerenegotiation,breachofcontract,andlitigationhasoccurred,butnearlyallcontractsappeartohavecontinuedunchanged.Themainreasonfortheconstraintsinalteringthesecoalcontractsisthatlessthan15%ofcoalconsumedbyutilitiesissuppliedbyacoalcompanyownedbythesameutility(Joskow,1987).Firmshavehighlegalornegotiationcostsofbreakingacoalcontractwhentheagreementismadewitharmthathasnonancialtiestotheutility.Coalcontractsmayalsobearesultofregulationsprotectingthelocalcoalindustry(Arimura2002).Duetotheinabilityofcontractedcoalpricestodecreasewithspotmarketprices,largecoalprice 56

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Third,underCAIRsomeutilitiesmaybelockedintolowsulfurcoalcontractsenteredintoforTitleIVcomplianceandmaybeunableswitchbacktohighsulfurcoalandscrubifitiscost-eectivetodoso.Consequently,thecontractconstraintpushesautilityintosub-optimalcompliancechoicessuchasallowancepurchasesorscrubberinstallationwhileusinglowsulfurcoal. AnexaminationofthedataforPhaseIaectedunitsindicatesthatofthe26scrubbersinstalledbytheendof1996inresponsetothepassageofthe1990CleanAirActAmendments,23ofthosescrubberswereinstalledatfacilitieswith40percentormoreofitscoaldeliveriesbycontractandwith20ofthemhavingaweightedaverageSO2emissionratesgreaterthanthePhaseIallowedlevelof2.5lbs.SO2/mmBtu(poundspermillionBtusofheat). 58

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subjectto...Aei+Ai(1ziri)(m)(CsihSsih+CcihScih+CsilSsil+CcilScil)i1 (CsihHsih+CcihHcih+CsilHsil+CcilHcil)Dii2 (2{6) Equation( 3{1 )representstheunit'scostfunction.Thesecostsincludethecostofscrubberinstallation(ziPiz),netcostsofallowancepurchases(PAAi),andcostsofcoalpurchases(PsihCsih+PsilCsil+Pcih 3{2 ),wherethenumberofallowancesheld(Aei+Ai)mustbeaslargeastheamountoftotalemissionsbythegeneratingunit[(1ziri)(m)(CsihSsih+ 3{3 ).TheLagrangemultiplieronthedemandconstraintisrepresentedbyi2.Coalcontractconstraintsrequiretheunittouseaspecicamountofeachcontractcoaltype, 3{4 )and 3{5 ).Aunitwilluseexactlythecontractedamountbecause(1)ifthecontractcoalismoreexpensivethanspotmarketcoal,thena 63

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SinceAicanbeeitherpositiveornegativebasedonthenetallowanceposition,( 2{8 )willholdwithequality.Theadditionalcosttothermofemittingonemoretonofemissionsisequivalenttotheallowanceprice,i1=PA. Letf2fh;lgrepresentthetypeofcoalandg2fs;cgrepresentthetypeofpurchase.Eachcoaltypehasitsownsulfurcontent(Sgif),heatcontent(Hgif),anddeliveredprice(Pgif).ThepartialderivativeswithrespecttoCgifrepresenttheimpactaoneunitchangein\f"typesulfurcoal(highorlow)froma\g"typepurchasingagreement(spotmarketorcontract)hasontheunit'stotalcosts. ThecostofusingonemoreunitofCgifcanbedisaggregatedintofourdierentcostchanges:Pgifistheadditionalcostsofpurchasingonemoreunitofcoal,i1(1ziri)(m)(Sgif)istheadditionalcostsoftheextraemissionsfromonemoreunitofcoal, 64

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3{37 )or( 2{10 )holdswithequality.Sincethecontractconstraintholdswithequality,( 2{11 )and( 2{12 )alwaysholdwithequality. 3{37 )and( 2{10 )holdwithequality,or ( 2{13 )canberearrangedtoisolatetheshadowpriceofallowancesoremissions,i1,toderivetheMarginalCostofAbatementfromSwitchingFuelsfromhighsulfurspottolowsulfurspotmarketcoal(MCAs;si)in( 2{14 ).Exploiting( 2{8 ),theallowancepriceequalsMCAs;si: (2{14) Theshadowpriceisequaltothedierenceinpriceperunitofheatdividedbythedierenceinemissionsperunitofheat. 65

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3{37 )holdswithequalitywhile( 2{10 )holdswithweakinequality,or ( 2{15 )canberearrangedtoshowtheallowancepriceisweaklylessthanMCAs;si: 2{10 )holdswithequalitywhile( 3{37 )holdswithweakinequality,or ( 2{17 )canberearrangedtoshowthattheallowancepriceisweaklygreaterthanMCAs;si: Assumeaunithasahighsulfurcoalcontractandusesonlylowsulfurspotmarketcoal(nohighsulfurspotmarketcoal).So( 2{10 )and( 2{11 )holdwithequality.Ithasbeenshownin( 2{17 )thatifaunitusesonlylowsulfurspotmarketcoal,PAMCAs;si: 66

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2{19 )andexploiting( 2{8 ),itcanbeshownthattheallowancepriceisequaltoMarginalCostofAbatementofswitchingfromhighsulfurcontracttolowsulfurspotmarketcoal(MCAc;si)plusanadditionaltermrepresentingthebenetsofmeetingthecontractconstraint,whichisweaklygreaterthanMCAs;si: From( 2{20 ),ifMCAs;siMCAc;si>0,thenih>0andhighsulfurcontractcoalismoreexpensivethanspotmarkethighsulfurcoal.IfMCAs;siMCAc;si<0,thenihcanbepositiveornegative.Ifih<0,thencontractcoalischeaperthanspotmarketcoalandtheadditionalcompliancecostsduetoemissionsdominatethesavingsfromthelowerfuelcosts.Ifih>0,thencontractcoalischeaperthanspotmarketcoalandthesavingsfromthelowerfuelcostsdominatetheincreasedcompliancecostsduetoemissions. Nowassumeaunithasahighsulfurcoalcontractandusesonlyhighsulfurspotmarketcoal(nolowsulfurspotmarketcoal).( 2{11 )and( 2{12 )holdwithequalitywhile( 2{10 )holdswithweakinequality.Also,ithasbeenshownthatwhenaunitusesonlyhighsulfurspotmarketcoal,PAMCAs;si.Usingthesameapproachasinthepreviouscase,itcanbefoundthattheallowancepriceisweaklylessthanMCAc;siplusanadditionaltermrepresentingthebenetsofmeetingthecontractconstraint: ThesignofihcannotbedeterminedbycomparingMCAs;siandMCAc;si,buttherst-orderconditionsforhighsulfurcontractandspotmarketcoalcanbeusedtodetermineitssign.Psih+i1(1ziri)(m)(Ssih)

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Iftheadditionalcosts,bothfromfuelcostsandemissions,ofusinghighsulfurcontractcoalismoreexpensivethanusinghighsulfurspotmarketcoal,thenih>0.Iftheadditionalcosts,bothfromfuelcostsandemissions,ofusinghighsulfurcontractcoalislessthanusinghighsulfurspotmarketcoal,thenih<0.Iftheadditionalcosts,bothfromfuelcostsandemissions,ofusinghighsulfurcontractcoalisisthesameasusinghighsulfurspotmarketcoal,thenih=0. Nowassumeaunithasahighsulfurcoalcontractandusesbothhighsulfurandlowsulfurspotmarketcoal.So( 2{10 )and( 2{11 )holdwithequality.Also,ithasbeenshownin( 2{15 )thatwhenaunitusesbothhighandlowsulfurspotmarketcoal,PA=MCAs;si: Bysolvingforihin( 2{24 ),thesignofihcanbedetermined.IfMCAs;siMCAc;si=0,thenih=0andhighsulfurcontractcoalhasthesamecostashighsulfurspotmarketcoal.IfMCAs;siMCAc;si>0,thenih>0andcontractcoalismoreexpensivetousethanspotmarketcoal.IfMCAs;siMCAc;si<0,thenih<0andcontractcoalischeapertousethanspotmarketcoal. Assumeaunithasalowsulfurcoalcontractandusesonlyhighsulfurspotmarketcoal.Ithasalreadybeenshownin( 2{16 )thatwhenaunitusesonlyhighsulfurspot 68

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3{37 )and( 2{12 )holdwithequalitywhile( 2{10 )holdswithaweakinequality.Usingthesameapproachasintheprevioussectionyields: Using( 2{26 ),thesignofilcanbedetermined.IfMCAs;siMCAc;si>0,thenil>0andlowsulfurcontractcoalismoreexpensivetousethanlowsulfurspotmarketcoal.IfMCAs;siMCAc;si<0,thenilcaneitherbenegativeorpositive.IfMCAs;siMCAc;si<0andil>0,thenthehigherfuelcostsdominatethelowercostsfromemissions.IfMCAs;siMCAc;si<0andil<0,thenthethelowercostsfromemissionsdominatehigherfuelcosts. Nowassumeaunithasalowsulfurcoalcontractandusesonlylowsulfurspotmarketcoal.So( 2{10 )and( 2{12 )holdwithequalitywhile( 3{37 )holdswithaweakinequality.Ithasalreadybeenshownin( 2{17 )thatwhenaunitusesonlylowsulfurspotmarketcoal,PAMCAs;si. AlthoughthesignofilcannotbedeterminedbycomparingMCAs;siandMCAs;ci.Therstorderconditionsforlowsulfurcontractandspotmarketcoalcanbeusedtodetermineitssign.Psil+i1(1ziri)(m)(Ssil) Iftheadditionalcosts,bothfromfuelcostsandemissions,ofusinglowsulfurcontractcoalismoreexpensivethanusinglowsulfurspotmarketcoal,thenil>0.Ifthe 69

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Nowassumeageneratingunithasalowsulfurcoalcontractandusesbothhighsulfurandlowsulfurspotmarketcoal.So( 3{37 ),( 2{10 ),and( 2{12 )holdwithequalityandPA=MCAs;si: Bysolvingforil,thesignofilcanbedetermined.IfMCAs;ciMCAs;si=0,thenil=0andcontractcoalisascostlytouseasspotmarketcoal.IfMCAs;ciMCAs;si>0,thenih>0andcontractcoalismoreexpensivetousethanspotmarketcoal.IfMCAs;ciMCAs;si<0,thenih<0andcontractcoalischeapertousethanspotmarketcoal. Thecostsofaunit'snetallowancepositionisthedierencebetweenageneratingunit'sinitialallowanceallocationanditsactualemissionsmultipliedbytheallowanceprice(PAAi). Thecostsofswitchingfuelsisthelargeroftwovalues:(1)totalcostsofactualcoalpurchases(PsihCsih+PsilCsil+Pcih 70

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Thelatterwillonlyoccurifitisweaklycheaperforthegeneratingunittouselowsulfurcoalwithouttheemissionsrestrictions(Psih Combiningeachofthethreecostcomponentsresultsinaunit'stotalnetcompliancecosts.Eventhoughthecontractcoalhasnodirectaect,thecontractswillindirectlyaectcompliancecoststhroughaunit'sallowancepositionandscrubberchoice.Proposition1showsthesucientconditionsunderwhichacoalcontractwilleitherincreaseordecreasecompliancecosts. (i) IfPA>MCAs;siandthesulfurtoheatcontentratioofhighsulfurcontractcoal(Scih (ii) IfPAMCAs;siandthesulfurtoheatcontentratioofhighsulfurcontractcoal(Scih (iii) IfPAMCAs;siandthesulfurtoheatcontentratiooflowsulfurcontractcoal(Scil (iv) IfPA
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3{2 ).From( 3{2 )and( 3{3 ),theminimumandmaximumexcessdemandforallowancescanbeformallyderived. IfPAMCAs;si,aunitwillusethemaximumamountoflowsulfurspotmarketcoal,whichcanbederivedfrom( 3{3 ): Theuseofalllowsulfurspotmarketcoalleadstotheminimumemissionslevel: 72

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2{37 )forCsilin( 3{3 )givesanexpressionfortheminimumallowanceexcessdemand,whichisthedierencebetweentheminimumemissionslevel(EMINi)andtheinitialallowanceallocation(Aei): Ifaunit'sinitialallocationcancoveritsminimumpossibleemissions,thenitwillhaveanegativenetallowancepositionandbeanetsellerofallowances. IfPA=MCAs;si,aunitmayuseanycombinationofhighsulfurspotmarketcoalandlowsulfurspotmarketcoal,whichleadstoanylevelofexcessdemandintherange(EMINiAei;EMAXiAei).TheallowanceexcessdemandcanberepresentedbyAi=EMAXi(1)EMINiAeiwheretheconstant2[0;1].Aunitthatisindierentbetweenfuelswitchingandallowancespurchasescouldbeeitheranetbuyeroranetseller. CombiningtheexcessdemandsforeachofthethreecasescreatestheExcessDemandCorrespondence:Ai=8>>>><>>>>:AMAXiifPA>MCAs;siAMAXi(1)AMINiifPA=MCAs;si82[0;1]AMINiifPAMCAs;si.ThecasewhereageneratingunitusessomecombinationoflowsulfurspotmarketcoalandhighsulfurspotmarketcoalisrepresentedbythehorizontallineatwhichPA=MCAs;si. 73

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2{39 ),wheretheexcessdemandwillactuallybenegative. Theunit'scostsavingsfromswitchingfuelsoverpurchasingallowancesis(PAMCAs;si)(AMAXiAMINi),whichisthearea\a+b"seeninFigure 2.8 (ii).Thedark-shadedarea(a)isthecostsavingsforthegeneratingunitfromabatingemissionsthroughfuelswitchinginsteadofpurchasingadditionalallowances.Thelight-shadedarea(b)isthecostsavingsfromabatingmorethanitsinitialallocationandsellingtheextraallowances. 2.8 ,whichissummarizedinProposition2. (i) FortherangeofallowancepricesPAMCAs;si,ahighsulfurcoalcontractwillweaklyincreaseaunit'sallowanceexcessdemand. (ii) FortherangeofallowancepricesPAMCAs;si,ahighsulfurcoalcontractwillweaklydecreaseexcessdemandifScih 74

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FortherangeofallowancepricesPAMCAs;si,ahighsulfurcoalcontractwillweaklyincreaseexcessdemandifScih ThedecreaseinlowsulfurspotmarketcoaluseincreasesemissionsfromEMINitobEMINi,whichistheminimumemissionsgiventhehighsulfurcoalcontractconstraint: Higheremissionsmustbecoveredbyadditionalallowances,whichresultsintheminimumexcessdemandwithahighsulfurcoalcontracttobegreaterthantheminimumexcessdemandwithnohighsulfurcoalcontract: Therefore,ahighsulfurcoalcontractwillincreaseexcessdemandforallowancepricesPA>MCAs;si. 75

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Loweremissionsresultinadecreaseinaunit'smaximumexcessdemandfromAMAXitobAMAXiinFigure 2.8 (i): Therefore,ahighsulfurcoalcontractforcoalwithalowersulfurtoheatcontentratiowilldecreaseexcessdemandforallowancepricesPA
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2.8 ,aunitpreferstouselowsulfurcoalbecausePA>MCAs;si,andthecompliancecostsfromswitchingfuelstoabateemissionscanbeseeninarea(a+b).Area(b+c)istherevenuegained(negativecost)fromsellingtheremainingallowancesthatareavailableduetoabatingemissionsbelowaunit'sinitialallowanceallocation.Thenetcompliancecostsforaunitwillbethecostsofswitchingfuelsminustherevenuesfromallowancesales,or(a+b)(b+c)=(ac).If(ac)<0,thenaunitwillhavenegativecompliancecosts. Nowconsiderhowahighsulfurcoalcontractwillimpacttheexcessdemandcorrespondence,compliancecosts,andtotalcosts.AshasalreadybeenshownaboveandcanbeseeninFigure 2.8 ,ahighsulfurcoalcontractwillincreasetheminimumexcessdemandfromAMINitobAMINiandmayincreaseordecreasethemaximumexcessdemanddependingontherelativesulfurtoheatcontentratioofcontracttospotmarketcoal. Theseshiftsinaunit'sexcessdemandmayhavethreedistincteectsonaunit'scosts.Therstcostimpactistheadditionalcompliancecoststoaunitfromlostallowancesales,whichisrepresentedbyarea(d)inFigure 2.8 .Aunitmustusesomehighsulfurcoal,whichresultsinaunitcoveringadditionalemissionsthroughmoreexpensiveallowancesinsteadofswitchingtolowsulfurcoal. Thesecondimpactresultsfromthedierenceinthesulfurtoheatcontentratiobetweenhighsulfurcontractandspotmarketcoal.IfScih 2.8 (i)forreducingemissionstotheallowanceallocation 77

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2.8 (ii)forreducingemissionstotheallowanceallocationemissionslevel. Considerhowtheseshiftsinexcessdemandwillimpactaunit'snetcompliancecosts.Theincreaseintheminimumexcessdemandwillincreasenetcompliancecostsbydecreasingarea(b)andarea(c).Ifmaximumexcessdemanddecreases,netcompliancecostsdecreasebyarea(f)inFigure 2.8 (i).Combiningthetwoimpactsresultsinnetcompliancecostsof(ac)inFigure 2.8 (i).Ifmaximumexcessdemandincreases,netcompliancecostsincreasebyarea(f)inFigure 2.8 (ii).Combiningthetwoimpactsresultsinnetcompliancecostsof(a+fc)ininFigure 2.8 (ii). Thethirdcostimpactresultsfromdierentpricesforhighsulfurspotmarketandcontractcoal,whichisrepresentedbyarea(e).Higherpricedcontractcoalcausesaunittohaveadditionalfuelcoststomeetingelectricitydemand,whichisanincreaseaunit'stotalcosts. Thegraphicaldescriptionofahighsulfurcoalcontract'simpactsonexcessdemandandcostscanbeseenintheexampledenedinTable 3-1 .Giventhecoalcharacteristics,demand,allowanceallocation,andallowanceprice,andusingahighsulfurcontractcoalpriceof$1.50/mmBtu,theminimumandmaximumallowanceuseandMCAs;sicanbecomputedifaunitfacesnohighsulfurcoalcontract( Theminimumallowanceusebasedonthelowsulfurcoalcharacteristicsis11,400tonswhilethemaximumallowanceusebasedonthehighsulfurspotmarketcoalcharacteristicsis38,000tons.TheMCAs;siis$270.68,whichislowerthantheallowancepriceof$300.00.Soaunitwillswitchtoalllowsulfurcoaltominimizeitstotalcosts.Indoingso,itwilluseuse11,400ofitsallowanceallocationtocoveritsminimumemissions 78

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Nowconsiderthesameunitwithahighsulfurcoalcontractfor500,000tonsofcoal,whichaccountsforhalfoftherequiredheatinput.Themaximumallowanceuseremainsat38,000tons,buttheminimumallowanceusedecreasesto24,700tonsbecauseofthecoalcontract.TheMCAc;siis$90.23,whichismuchlowerthantheallowancepriceof$300.00andMCAs;siof$270.68.Thecoalcontractresultsincompliancecosts(costsofswitchingfuelsminusallowancesales)of$5.01millionandtotalcoststomeetingelectricitydemand(lowsulfurspotmarketcoalpurchasesplushighsulfurcontractcoalpurchasesplusallowancepurchases)of$38.61million.Compliancecostsincreasedby$390,000becausetheunitcouldnotswitchallitscoalusetolowsulfurcoal.Totalcoststotheunitincreasedby$2.79millionbecauseofthehigherpriceforthecontractcoal. Anotherpossibilityisthatthehighsulfurcontractcoalcouldactuallybecheaper,whichisreasonablebecausethemainreasonformakingacoalcontractagreementisforprotectionagainstfuturecoalpriceuctuations.ThiscasecanbeseeninFigure 2.8 ,whereMCAc;si>MCAs;siandthereisactuallyacostsavingstotheunitfromusinghighsulfurcontractcoaloverhighsulfurspotmarketcoal.Thenetcompliancecostsremainthesameasinthepreviousexample,area(ac). 79

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2{36 ),wheretheexcessdemandwillbepositive. GiventhataunitpreferredtousehighsulfurcoalbeforeSO2constraints,theunit'scostsavingsfromusingallowancesoverswitchingfuelsis(MCAs;siPA)(AMAXiAMINi),whichisthearea\a+b"seeninFigure 2.8 .Thedark-shadedarea(a)isthecostsavingsforthegeneratingunitfrompurchasingadditionalallowancesinsteadofswitchingfuels.Thelight-shadedarea(b)isthecostsavingsfromusingtheallocatedallowancesinsteadofabatingemissionsandsellingtheextraallowances. 2.8 ,whichissummarizedinProposition3. 80

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FortherangeofallowancepricesPAMCAs;si,alowsulfurcoalcontractwillweaklydecreaseaunit'sallowanceexcessdemand. (ii) FortherangeofallowancepricesPAMCAs;si,alowsulfurcoalcontractwilldecreaseexcessdemandifScil (iii) FortherangeofallowancepricesPAMCAs;si,alowsulfurcoalcontractwillincreaseexcessdemandifScil Thedecreaseinmaximumhighsulfurcoalusedecreasesaunit'smaximumemissionsfromEMAXitobEMAXi: Loweremissionsdecreasetheallowancesused,whichresultsinthemaximumexcessdemandwithalowsulfurcoalcontracttobelowerthanthemaximumexcessdemandwithnolowsulfurcoalcontract: Therefore,ahighsulfurcoalcontractwillincreaseexcessdemandforallowancepricesPA
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IfScil Loweremissionsresultinadecreaseinaunit'sminimumexcessdemandfromAMAXitobAMAXiinFigure 2.8 (i): Therefore,alowsulfurcoalcontractforcoalwithalowersulfurtoheatcontentratiowilldecreaseexcessdemandforallowancepricesPA>MCAs;si. Greateremissionsresultinanincreaseinaunit'sminimumexcessdemandfromAMINitobAMINiinFigure 2.8 (ii): Therefore,ahighsulfurcoalcontractforcoalwithahighersulfurtoheatcontentratiowillincreaseexcessdemandforallowancepricesPA>MCAs;si. 2.8 .If 82

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InFigure 2.8 ,thenetcompliancecostscanbeseenintheshadedarea(a)thatrepresentsthecostsofpurchasingallowancestocovertheunit'semissionsaboveitsallowanceallocation. Nowconsiderhowalowsulfurcoalcontractwillimpacttheexcessdemandcorrespondence,compliancecosts,andtotalcosts.AshasalreadybeenshownaboveandcanbeseeinFigure 2.8 ,alowsulfurcoalcontractwilldecreasethemaximumexcessdemandfromAMAXitobAMAXiandmayincreaseordecreasetheminimumexcessdemanddependingontherelativesulfurtoheatcontentratioofcontracttospotmarketcoal. Theseshiftsinaunit'sexcessdemandmayhavetwodistincteectsonaunit'scosts.Therstcostimpactistheadditionalcompliancecoststoaunitfromswitchingfromhighsulfurspotmarkettolowsulfurcontractcoalinsteadofpurchasingallowances,whichisrepresentedbyarea(c)inFigure 2.8 .Aunitmustusesomelowsulfurcoal,whichresultsinaunitabatingadditionalemissionsinsteadofpurchasingallowances.Area(c)isthedierencebetweenthecostsofswitchingfuelstodecreaseemissions,area(b+c),andthedecreaseincostsfromallowancepurchases,area(b).Netcompliancecostsincreasefrom(a+b)to(a+b+c). Thesecondcostimpactresultsfromdierentpricesforlowsulfurcontractandspotmarketcoal,whichisrepresentedbyarea(d).Higherpricedcontractcoalcausesaunittohaveadditionalfuelcoststomeetingelectricitydemand,whichincreasesaunit'stotalcosts. ThegraphicaldescriptionofcoalcontractimpactsonexcessdemandandcostscanbeseenintheexampledenedinTable 2-4 .Giventhecoalcharacteristics,demand, 83

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Theminimumallowanceusebasedonthelowsulfurcoalcharacteristicsis11,400tonswhilethemaximumallowanceusebasedonthehighsulfurspotmarketcoalcharacteristicsis38,000tons.TheMCAs;siis$270.68,whichishigherthantheallowancepriceof$200.00.Soaunitwillpurchaseallowancestominimizeitstotalcosts.Indoingso,itwilluseusetheentire20,000tonallowanceallocationandpurchaseanadditional18,000allowancestocoveritsmaximumemissionslevel.Netcompliancecostsaretheadditionalcostsfrompurchasingallowances,whichis$3.6million.Totalcostsarethetotalcostoffuelpurchasesplusallowancepurchases,whichis$34.8million. Nowconsiderthesameunitwithalowsulfurcoalcontractfor500,000tonsofcoal,whichaccountsforhalftherequiredheatinputtomeetdemand.Theminimumallowanceuseremainsat11,400tons,butthemaximumallowanceusedecreasesto24,700tonsbecauseofthecoalcontract.TheMCAs;ciis$451.13,whichismuchhigherthantheallowancepriceof$200.00andMCAs;siof$270.68.Thecoalcontractresultsinnetcompliancecosts(additionalcostsofallowancepurchasesandfuelswitching)of$4.54millionandtotalcoststomeetingelectricitydemand(highsulfurspotmarketcoalpurchasespluslowsulfurcontractcoalpurchasesplusallowancepurchases)of$38.14million.Compliancecostsincreasedby$940,000becausetheunitcouldnotuseallhighsulfurcoal.Totalcoststotheunitincreasedby$3.34millionbecauseofthehigherpriceforthecontractcoal. Anotherpossibilityisthatthelowsulfurcontractcoalcouldactuallybecheaperthanlowsulfurspotmarketcoal,whichisreasonablebecausethemainreasonformakingacoalcontractagreementisforprotectionagainstfuturecoalpriceuctuations.Thiscasecan 84

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2.8 ,whereMCAc;siMCAs;si.However,theimpactsoncompliancecostsandtotalcostswillbedierent.Thereasoningforthisisthatthecontractdoesnotforceaunittouseamoreexpensivecomplianceoption.BycomparingFigure 2.8 toFigure 2.8 ,thesedierencescanbederived.Theshiftinaunit's 85

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AlowsulfurcoalcontractwillhavethesameimpactsontheexcessdemandcorrespondencewhenPA=MCAs;siasininSection5.7.3wherePA
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2{56 )canbeusedtosolveforPSA,theminimumallowancepriceatwhichageneratingunitwillinstallascrubber: (bAieAi)(2{57) AunitwillprefertoinstallascrubberatPSAiftheaveragecostsofabatementfromusingascrubberisweaklylessthanthecostsofpurchasinganallowance. ScrubberinstallationdecreasesthesizeofthedenominatorofMeCAs;siby(ri)(m)(Ssih 87

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Ageneratingunit'sexcessdemandcorrespondencecanbederivedfromitsoptimalcompliancechoicesasthemarketallowancepricechanges.ForallowancepricesMeCAs;si>>>>>>>>>>>>><>>>>>>>>>>>>>>:AMAXiif0
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TheexcessdemandcorrespondenceseeninFigure 2.8 (i)includesageneratingunit'snetallowancepositionunderthefourdierentallowancepricerangesif(Psih 2.8 (ii). 2.8 89

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Aunitthatfacesacoalcontractwillfaceadierentindierenceallowancepriceof(PSA)becauseparametersvaluesonbothsidesoftheequalitywillchange.couldbepositiveornegativedependingonseveralconditions,includingthetypeofcoalundercontract.Thenewvaluesthatsolvethisequalityarethecontractconstrainedcostminimizingparametervalues.Thefuelcostsforthecontractcoalwillbethesamebothwithandwithoutascrubberandwillcancelout. BysolvingfortheconstantPizin( 2{59 )and( 2{60 )andsettingthetwoexpressionsequaltoeachother,thesignandvalueofcanbederived. 90

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Intherstcase,withoutahighsulfurcoalcontract,aunitpreferstouselowsulfurspotmarketcoalwithoutascrubberandhighsulfurcoalwithascrubber.Thetwosubcaseswillbedeterminedbythegeneratingunit'scharacteristicsandthesizeofthecontractconstraint. Intherstsubcase,bothwithorwithoutahighsulfurcoalcontract,aunitpreferstouselowsulfurspotmarketcoalifitdoesnotinstallascrubberandhighsulfurspotmarketcoalitdoesinstallascrubber.Forthistohold,(MCAs;si
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2{62 )and( 2{63 )canbesetequaltosolveforthevalueof: (bAMINibASMAXi)(2{65) Fillinginforallowancesandcoaluseparameters,itispossibletodeterminethesignof.AMINi=Di 2{65 ),theexpressionforcanbesimpliedtoparametersforcoalprice,sulfurcontent,heatcontent,andscrubbercapturerate. Aninterpretableformisderivedbyseparatingterms,multiplyingthoughby(bAMINibASMAXi),anddividingthroughbym(Ssih Fromtheinitialassumptionthataunituseslowsulfurcoalwhenitdoesnotinstallascrubber,itisknownthatPSA>MCAs;si.Soif(Scih 92

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2-6 isbasedondatafromtheaunitthatinstalledascrubberunderPhaseI. 2-6 ,aunitwillprefertouselowsulfurcoalifitdoesnotinstallascrubberbecauseMCAs;si=$244:26andPA=$250.Ifascrubberisinstalled,aunitpreferstousehighsulfurspotmarketcoalbecausethemarginalcostofabatementincreasesabovetheallowancepricetoMeCAs;si=$4;885:20.TheannualizedscrubbercostsarePiz=$15:886million,whichresultsinPSA=$1;572:56.Ahighsulfurcoalcontractfor50%ofcoaluseresultsinadecreaseintheindierenceallowancepriceof=$1;210:61to(PA)=$382:00(a76%decreaseinPSA).Althoughaunit'scompliancechoicesarenotalteredatPA=$250,thelargedecreaseinencouragesscrubbingatmuchlowerallowancepricesthanwithoutthecoalcontract.Thissubcasewillholdforacontractconstraintoflessthan73.5%ofcoaluse.Thisexampleshowsthatformanyunits,highsulfurcoalcontractswouldnothaveenoughofanimpacttoresultinscrubberinstallationinPhaseI.Onlyabout10%ofunitsactuallyinstalledscrubberstocomplywithPhaseI,buttheseunitsaccountforoverhalfoftotalabatementbyaectedunits. Inthesecondsubcase,assumethatwithoutahighsulfurcoalcontract,aunitpreferstouselowsulfurspotmarketcoalifitdoesnotinstallascrubberandhighsulfurspotmarketcoalitdoesinstallascrubberbecause(MCAs;si
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( 2{68 )showsthatthecostswithandwithoutascrubberareequalforagivenPSA,andcanberearrangedtondanexpressionforPiz: Sinceaunituseslowsulfurcoalwithoutascrubber,ahighsulfurcoalcontractwillchangethecoalusebyaunitwithoutascrubberandchangetheindierenceallowancepricebysomevalue: ( 2{70 )canberearrangedtondanexpressionforPiz: ThetwoexpressionsforPizin( 2{69 )and( 2{71 )canbesetequaltosolveforthevalueof: Byllinginforallowancesandcoaluse,itispossibletodeterminethesignof.AMINi=Di

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2{72 ),theexpressionforcanbesimpliedtoparametersforcoalprice,sulfurcontent,heatcontent,andscrubbercapturerate: Thenewformin( 2{73 )iseasiertodeterminethesignofbecausethesignoftheleft-handsideisunchangedwhilesimplifyingtheright-handside.Nowgettheright-handsideintoaformthatisinterpretablebyseparatingtermsanddividingthroughbym(Ssih (Ssih Thelasttwotermsin( 2{74 )canbecombinedtogetDi(PSAMCAs;si): Fromourinitialassumptionthataunitusesalllowsulfurspotmarketcoalifitdoesnotinstallascrubber,ifitdoesnothaveahighsulfurcoalcontract,thenPSA>MCAs;si.If(Scih AssumingthedatainTable 2-6 ,thiscasewilloccurifthecontractisgreaterthan73.5%ofcoaluse.Forthiscasetooccur,ahighsulfurcoalcontractmustresultinaunitpreferringtousehighsulfurcoalwithoutascrubberinstalledwhen,withoutacontract,itinitiallypreferstouselowsulfurcoalwithoutascrubber(PSA>MCAs;siandPSA
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Inthethirdcase,assumethataunit,bothwithandwithoutahighsulfurcoalcontract,preferstousehighsulfurcoalbothwithandwithoutascrubberbecause(PA
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2{77 )and( 2{79 )canbesetequaltosolveforthevalueof: (bAMAXibASMAXi)(2{80) Fillinginforallowancesandcoaluse,itispossibletodeterminethesignof.AMAXi=Di 2{80 ),theexpressionforcanbesimpliedtoparametersforcoalprice,sulfurcontent,heatcontent,andscrubbercapturerate: Ifhighsulfurcontractcoalhasaweaklyhighersulfurtoheatcontentratiothanhighsulfurspotmarketcoal(Scih Undertheinitialassumptions,PSA
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(i) (ii) Thesignofisunknownif(Scih GiventheimpactahighsulfurcoalcontracthasonexcessdemanddenedinProposition2andthesignofdenedinProposition4,theimpactofahighsulfurcoalcontractisderivedinProposition5(a)and5(b). (i) FortherangeofallowancepricesPAMeCAs;si,ahighsulfurcoalcontractwillweaklyincreaseaunit'sexcessdemand. (ii) FortherangeofallowancepricesPSAPAMeCAs;si,ahighsulfurcoalcontractwillweaklyincreaseexcessdemand. (iii) Fortherangeofallowanceprices(PSA)PAPSA,ahighsulfurcoalcontractwillweaklydecreaseexcessdemandifAMINibASMAXiandweaklyincreaseexcessdemandifAMINibASMAXi. (iv) FortherangeofallowancepricesMeCAs;siPA(PSA),ahighsulfurcoalcontractwillweaklyincreaseaunit'sexcessdemand. (v) Fortherangeofallowanceprices0PAMCAs;si,ahighsulfurcoalcontractwillweaklyincreaseaunit'sexcessdemand. WhenaunitfacesPAMeCAs;si,aunitpreferstoinstallascrubberandusealllowsulfurcoal.FromProposition2(i),ahighsulfurcoalcontractincreasestheminimumemissionslevel,whichwillweaklyincreaseaunit'sallowanceexcessdemand. (ii) WhenaunitfacesPSAPAMeCAs;si,aunitpreferstoinstallascrubberanduseallhighsulfurcoal.FromProposition2(iii),given(Scih (iii) FromProposition4(i),whenaunitfaces(PSA)PAPSA,ahighsulfurcoalcontractdecreasesaunit'sindierenceallowancepriceofinstallingascrubber 98

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(iv) Whenaunitfaces(Scih (v) Whenaunitfaces0PAMCAs;si,aunitdoesnotinstallascrubberandpreferstousehighsulfurcoal.FromProposition2(iii),given(Scih 2.8 (i).Proposition5(b)expressestheimpactahighsulfurcoalcontractwillhaveonaunit'sexcessdemandcorrespondencebyassumingthat>0. (i) FortherangeofallowancepricesPAMeCAs;si,ahighsulfurcoalcontractwillweaklyincreaseaunit'sexcessdemand. (ii) FortherangeofallowancepricesPSAPAMeCAs;si,ahighsulfurcoalcontractwillweaklydecreaseexcessdemand. (iii) Fortherangeofallowanceprices(PSA)PAPSA,ahighsulfurcoalcontractwillweaklydecreaseexcessdemand. (iv) FortherangeofallowancepricesMeCAs;siPA(PSA),ahighsulfurcoalcontractwillweaklyincreaseaunit'sexcessdemand. (v) Fortherangeofallowanceprices0PAMCAs;si,ahighsulfurcoalcontractwillweaklydecreaseexcessdemand. WhenaunitfacesPAMeCAs;si,aunitpreferstoinstallascrubberandusealllowsulfurcoal.FromProposition2(i),ahighsulfurcoalcontractincreasestheminimumemissionslevel,whichwillweaklyincreaseaunit'sallowanceexcessdemand. 99

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WhenaunitfacesPSAPAMeCAs;si,aunitpreferstoinstallascrubberanduseallhighsulfurcoal.FromProposition2(ii),given(Scih (iii) If>0,whenaunitfaces(PSA)PAPSA,ahighsulfurcoalcontractdecreasesaunit'sindierenceallowancepriceofinstallingascrubberbelowtheallowanceprice,whichleadstoaunitinstallingascrubberwhereitinitiallywouldnotanddecreasesaunit'semissionsandaunit'sexcessdemand.FromProposition2(ii),Giventhescrubberchoiceand(Scih (iv) FromProposition2(i),whenaunitfacesMeCAs;siPA(PSA),aunitdoesnotinstallascrubberandpreferstouselowsulfurcoal.Ahighsulfurcoalcontractincreasesaunit'sminimumemissionslevelandexcessdemand. (v) FromProposition2(ii),whenaunitfaces0PAMCAs;si,aunitdoesnotinstallascrubberandpreferstousehighsulfurcoal.Given(Scih 2.8 (ii). Thereareconditionsunderwhichsomeoftheseallowancepricerangesdonotexist.Forexample,PSAMCAs;sito(PA)
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Ifaunithasnolowsulfurcontractcoal( ( 2{82 )canberearrangedtondanexpressionforPiz: Alowsulfurcoalcontractwillchangeaunit'scoaluseandallowancepurchases,whichchangestheindierenceallowancepricebysomevalue: ( 2{84 )canberearrangedtondanexpressionforPiz: ThetwoexpressionsforPizin( 2{83 )and( 2{85 )canbesetequaltosolveforthevalueof: (bAMINibASMAXi)(2{86) Fillinginforallowancesandcoaluse,itispossibletodeterminethesignof.AMINi=Di

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2{86 ),theexpressionforcanbesimpliedtoparametersforcoalprice,sulfurcontent,heatcontent,andscrubbercapturerate. Amoreinterpretableexpressionisderivedbymultiplyingthroughby((bAMINibASMAXi))anddividingthroughbym(Ssih (Ssih (m)(Ssih (Ssih Fromtheinitialassumptionthataunituseslowsulfurcoalwhenitdoesnotinstallascrubber,itisknownthat(PSA>MCAs;si).Since(Scil AbindinglowsulfurcoalcontractismorelikelytoimpactunitsunderCAIR.AnexampleusingrecentdatareectiveofthecoalavailabilityanddeliveredpricesforaunitinAlabamain2000willhelptoshow<0. 102

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Inthesecondcase,assumethatwithoutalowsulfurcoalcontract,aunitpreferstousehighsulfurspotmarketcoalbothifitdoesordoesnotinstallascrubberbecause(PSA
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2{91 )and( 2{93 )canbesetequaltosolveforthevalueof: Byllinginforallowancesandcoaluse,itispossibletodeterminethesignof.AMAXi=Di 2{94 ),theexpressionforcanbesimpliedtoparametersforcoalprice,sulfurcontent,heatcontent,andscrubbercapturerate:)(bAMINibASMAXi)=mPSAHcilCcilh(Ssih Aninterpretableformisderivedbymultiplyingthroughby(bAMINibASMAXi)anddividingthroughbym(Ssih (Ssih (Ssih Fromourinitialassumptionthataunitusesallhighsulfurspotmarketcoalifitdoesnotinstallascrubberifitdoesnothaveahighsulfurcoalcontract,thenPSA
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ThesecondexampleinTable 2-8 usesdatathatreectsthiscase.Withoutacoalcontract,PSA=$520:35,whichislessthanMCAs;si=$657:90andPA=$700:00,andaunitwillusehighsulfurcoalbothwithandwithoutascrubberinstalled.Inthiscase,aunitwillinstallascrubberbecausePSA
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2{99 )and( 2{101 )canbesetequaltosolveforthevalueof: (bAMAXibASMAXi)(2{102) Fillinginforallowancesandcoaluse,itispossibletodeterminethesignof.AMAXi=Di 2{102 ),theexpressionforcanbesimpliedtoparametersforcoalprice,sulfurcontent,heatcontent,andscrubbercapturerate. Since(Scil ThethirdexampleinTable 2-8 usesdatareectiveofdeliveredcostsandcoalcharacteristicsforaunitinFlorida.Aunitinitiallypreferstousehighsulfurcoalbothwithandwithoutascrubberbecause(PA=$600:00)<(MCAs;si=$3;887:56).AunitwillprefertoinstallascrubberinthisexamplebecausetheindierentpriceisPSA=$565:60.Alowsulfurcoalcontractfor50%ofcoalusewillincreasetheindierencepriceto(PSA)=$642:42,whichwillresultinaunitnotinstallingascrubber. Basedontheabovethreecases,thesignofepsiloncanbesummarizedinProposition6. GivenProposition3andProposition6,theimpactofalowsulfurcoalcontractisderivedinProposition7(a)and7(b). 106

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FortherangeofallowancepricesPAMeCAs;si,alowsulfurcoalcontractwillweaklyincreaseexcessdemand. (ii) Fortherangeofallowanceprices(PSA)PAMeCAs;si,alowsulfurcoalcontractwillweaklydecreaseexcessdemand. (iii) FortherangeofallowancepricesPSAPA(PSA),alowsulfurcoalcontractwillweaklyincreaseexcessdemand. (iv) FortherangeofallowancepricesMeCAs;siPAPSA,alowsulfurcoalcontractwillweaklyincreaseexcessdemand. (v) Fortherangeofallowanceprices0PAMCAs;si,alowsulfurcoalcontractwillweaklydecreaseexcessdemand. WhenaunitfacesPAMeCAs;si,aunitpreferstoinstallascrubberandusealllowsulfurcoal.FromProposition3(iii),givenScil (ii) Whenaunitfaces(PSA)PAMeCAs;si,aunitpreferstoinstallascrubberanduseallhighsulfurcoal.FromProposition3(i),alowsulfurcoalcontractdecreasesthemaximumemissionslevel,whichwillweaklydecreaseaunit'sallowanceexcessdemand. (iii) FromProposition6,whenaunitfacesPSAPA(PSA),alowsulfurcoalcontractincreasesaunit'sindierenceallowancepriceofinstallingascrubberabovetheallowanceprice,whichleadsaunittonotinstallascrubberwhereitinitiallywouldhavedonesoandincreasesaunit'semissionsandaunit'sexcessdemand.FromProposition3(iii),giventhescrubberchoiceandScil (iv) WhenaunitfacesMeCAs;siPAPSA,aunitdoesnotinstallascrubberandpreferstouselowsulfurcoal.FromProposition3(iii),givenScil (v) Whenaunitfaces0PAMCAs;si,aunitdoesnotinstallascrubberandpreferstousehighsulfurcoal.FromProposition3(i),alowsulfurcoalcontractdecreasesaunit'smaximumemissionslevelandexcessdemand. 2.8 (i). 107

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FortherangeofallowancepricesPAMeCAs;si,alowsulfurcoalcontractwillweaklydecreaseexcessdemand. (ii) Fortherangeofallowanceprices(PSA)PAMeCAs;si,alowsulfurcoalcontractwillweaklydecreaseexcessdemand. (iii) FortherangeofallowancepricesPSAPA(PSA),alowsulfurcoalcontractwillincreaseexcessdemandASMAXibAMINiandweaklydecreaseexcessdemandifASMAXibAMINi. (iv) FortherangeofallowancepricesMeCAs;siPAPSA,alowsulfurcoalcontractwillweaklydecreaseexcessdemand. (v) Fortherangeofallowanceprices0PAMCAs;si,alowsulfurcoalcontractwillweaklydecreaseexcessdemand. WhenaunitfacesPAMeCAs;si,aunitpreferstoinstallascrubberandusealllowsulfurcoal.FromProposition3(ii),givenScil (ii) Whenaunitfaces(PSA)PAMeCAs;si,aunitpreferstoinstallascrubberanduseallhighsulfurcoal.FromProposition3(i),alowsulfurcoalcontractdecreasesthemaximumemissionslevel,whichwillweaklydecreaseaunit'sallowanceexcessdemand. (iii) FromProposition6,whenaunitfacesPSAPA(PSA),alowsulfurcoalcontractincreasesaunit'sindierenceallowancepriceofinstallingascrubberabovetheallowanceprice,whichleadsaunittonotinstallascrubberwhereitinitiallywouldhavedonesoandincreasesaunit'semissionsandaunit'sexcessdemand.FromProposition3(ii),giventhescrubberchoiceandScil (iv) WhenaunitfacesMeCAs;siPAPSA,aunitdoesnotinstallascrubberandpreferstouselowsulfurcoal.FromProposition3(ii),givenScil (v) Whenaunitfaces0PAMCAs;si,aunitdoesnotinstallascrubberandpreferstousehighsulfurcoal.FromProposition3(i),alowsulfurcoalcontractdecreasesaunit'smaximumemissionslevelandexcessdemand.

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2.8 (ii).Aswithahighsulfurcontract,someofthepricerangesmaynotexistforaparticularcase.However,theremainingpartsofthepropositionshold. Ashasbeenshowinseveralexamples,highsulfurcoalcontractsforalargefraction(50-100%)ofcoalusecangreatlyreduceaunit's\indierenceprice"toinstallingascrubber.SomeunitsunderPhaseIinitiallyappeartohaveinstalledascrubberwhenitwasnotaunit'soptimalcomplianceoption,increasingaunit'scompliancecosts.Additionalscrubberinstallationsshouldhaveresultedingreateremissionsreduction,whichshouldsimultaneouslylowerdemandandincreasesupplyofallowancesasaunitswitchesfromanetdemandertoanetseller.Indoingso,theequilibriumallowancemarketpriceshouldbedrivenlower,whichmayexplainthelowerthanexpectedallowancepricesrealizedduringPhaseI.Eventhoughtheallowancemarketpricewaslowerthanexpected,theinecientunitcompliancechoicesresultedinhigherthanexpectedtotalindustrycompliancecosts. UnderfutureCAIRregulation,aunit'scomplianceoptionsmayberestrictedbylowsulfurcoalcontractsagreeduponduringthe1990stomeetTitleIVemissionsrequirements.Aunitmayndinstallingascrubberandusinghighsulfurcoaltobeitbestcomplianceoption.However,lowsulfurcoalcontractsmayleadaunittochooseasuboptimalcompliancechoice,suchasswitchingfuelsorinstallingascrubberwhileusing 109

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Ashasbeenshowinseveralexamples,lowsulfurcoalcontractsforalargefraction(50-100%)ofcoalusecangreatlyincreaseaunit's\indierenceprice"toinstallingascrubber.SomeunitsunderCAIRmaynotinstallascrubberwhenitisoptimalforthemtodoso,increasingaunit'scompliancecosts.Fewerscrubberinstallationswouldresultingreateremissions,whichshouldsimultaneouslyincreasedemandanddecreasesupplyofallowancesasaunitwouldbeanetdemanderinsteadofanetseller,andtheallowancemarketpriceshouldbedrivenhigherthanwouldbeexpected.Inthiscase,ahigherthanexpectedallowancemarketpricewouldoccurwithhigherthanexpectedtotalindustrycompliancecosts. First,giventhescrubberchoice,itiseasytodeterminehowacoalcontractwillimpactaunit'sexcessdemandforallowances.Ahighsulfurcoalcontractwillweaklyincreaseaunit'sexcessdemandwhilealowsulfurcoalcontractwillweaklydecreaseaunit'sexcessdemand. Second,somecoalcontractsmayactuallydecreaseaunit'stotalcostsrelativetousingonlyspotmarketcoalwhileincreasingaunit'scompliancecostsifacoalcontractallowsaunittolockinalowerpriceforagiventypeofcoal.Thecoalcontractwillrestrictcompliancechoices,whichmayresultinhighercompliancecosts.Ifthefuelcostsavingsisgreaterthantheincreaseinaunit'scompliancecosts,thenthecoalcontractlowersaunit'stotalcosts.Sinceaunitonlycaresaboutitstotalcosts,aunit'scompliancedecisionsdonotnecessarilyminimizeaunit'scompliancecosts. 110

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Fourth,coalcontractconstraintschangetheallowancepriceatwhichaunitwillprefertoinstallascrubber.InthecaseofPhaseI,ahighsulfurcoalcontractmayincreaseaunit's\indierenceprice",whichcreatesagreaterincentiveforaunittoscrubandsellitsextraallowances.Thisresultmayexplainwhysomescrubberswereinstalledatsub-optimalunitswhiletheallowancemarketpricewasmuchlowerthanexpectedduringPhaseI.TheoppositemayoccurunderCAIR,wherealowsulfurcoalcontractmayincreaseaunit's\indierenceprice"andlowertheincentiveforaunittoinstallascrubberevenifitwouldbetheoptimalcompliancechoice.Ineithercase,asuboptimalcompliancechoicewillbemadeandaunit'scompliancecostswillweaklyincrease. Fifth,thereiscertaintyhowacoalcontractwillimpactaunit'sexcessdemandforallowancesevenwhenthescrubberchoiceisconsideredformostallowancepriceranges.However,duetothediscretescrubberchoiceandthechangeinthe\indierenceprice"duetoacoalcontract,itisuncertainhowacoalcontractwillalteraunit'sexcessdemandiftheallowancemarketpricefallsinoneparticularpricerange.AhighsulfurcoalcontractwillshiftexcessdemandasderivedinProposition2exceptiftheallowancemarketpricefallsinthepricerange(PSA;PSA)andScih 111

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112

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PhaseIComplianceCostEstimates SourceMCAi/tonPred.CostsLeast-CostActualCost ICF(1989,1990)$199-$226$450-860millionN/AN/AEPRI(1993,1995)$879-$1238$900-1,340millionN/AN/AGAO(1994)$299$1,170millionN/AN/AWinebrake,etal.(1995)$143$502millionN/AN/APre-PolicyEstimates$143-$1238$450-$1340millionN/AN/AEllermanetal.(1997)$200-300N/AN/A$730millionSotkiewiczandHolt(2005)$150-$180N/A$423-$553million$990millionCarlsonetal.(2000)$71N/A$571million$910millionPost-PolicyEstimates$71-$800N/A$423-$571million$730-$990million Sources:BohiandBurtraw(1997);Carlsonetal.(2000);SotkiewiczandHolt(2005);SmithandEllerman(1998)

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HighSulfurCoalContract:Assumptions CoalTypePrice/mmBtuHgifPrice/TonSgif Table2-3. HighSulfurCoalContract:Results CostsComplianceTotalCostsComplianceTotalCostsCosts(Ex.1)(Ex.1)Costs(Ex.2)(Ex.2) Unconstrained$4.62million$35.82million$4.62million$35.82millionConstrained$5.01million$38.61million$5.01million$35.01millionChange$390,000$2.79million$390,000-$810,000 AllowanceUse(Tons)MCAi Table2-4. LowSulfurCoalContractExamples:Assumptions CoalTypePrice/mmBtuHgifPrice/TonSgif 114

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LowSulfurCoalContractExamples:Results CostsComplianceCosts(Ex.1)TotalCosts(Ex.1)ComplianceCosts(Ex.2)TotalCosts(Ex.2) Unconstrained$3.6million$34.8million$3.6million$34.8millionConstrained$4.54million$38.14million$4.54million$34.54millionChange$940,000$3.34million$940,000-$260,000 AllowanceUse(Tons)MCAi

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ExampleEpsilonMagnitude:Case1 ScrubberCharacteristicsGeneratingUnitCharacteristics CapitalCost$260/kWCapacity365.3MWOandMCost2mills/kWhHeatRate10,000Btu/kWhPiz$15,886,295Cap.Factor75%ri95% ParametersCharacteristicsValueResults LowSulfurCoalPrice$1.50/mmBtu50%Contract(Spot)HeatContent24mmBtu/tonPSA=$1,592.61=$1,210.61SulfurContent0.65%PSA=$382.00Pct.#PSA=76%HighSulfurCoalPrice$1.30/mmBtu75%Contract(Spot)HeatContent24mmBtu/tonPSA=$1,592.61=$1,349.82SulfurContent2.5%PSA=$242.79Pct.#PSA=85%HighSulfurCoalPrice$1.50/mmBtu(Contract)HeatContent24mmBtu/tonSulfurContent4.0%

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ExampleEpsilonMagnitude:Case2 ScrubberCharacteristicsGeneratingUnitCharacteristics CapitalCost$260/kWCapacity365.3MWOandMCost2mills/kWhHeatRate10,000Btu/kWhPiz$15,886,295Cap.Factor75%ri95% ParametersCharacteristicsValuesResults LowSulfurCoalPrice$2.79/mmBtuBLEngland(Spot)HeatContent24mmBtu/ton50%ContractSulfurContent0.5%PSA=$460.80=$44.66HighSulfurSpotCoalPrice$1.52/mmBtuPA=$416.14Pct.#PSA=10%(Spot)HeatContent24mmBtu/tonSulfurContent1.91%HighSulfurCoalPrice$1.72/mmBtu(Contract)HeatContent24mmBtu/tonSulfurContent2.32%

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ExampleEpsilonMagnitude CapitalCost$141.34/kWCapacity365.3MWOandMCost1.23mills/kWhHeatRate10,000Btu/kWhPiz$9,016,616.85Cap.Factor75%ri95% ParametersCharacteristicsValuesResults LowSulfurCoalPrice$1.50/mmBtuCase1(Alabama)(Alabama)HeatContent24mmBtu/tonPSA=$731.46=-$42.00SulfurContent0.7%PA=$773.46Pct:"PSA=6%HighSulfurSpotCoalPrice$1.10/mmBtu(Alabama)HeatContent24mmBtu/tonSulfurContent1.6%HighSulfurSpotCoalPrice$2.00/mmBtuCase2(CAIR)(CAIRExample)HeatContent25mmBtu/tonPSA=$520.35=-$352.99SulfurContent1.0%PA=$873.34Pct."PSA=68%LowSulfurCoalPrice$2.20/mmBtu(CAIRExample)HeatContent25mmBtu/tonSulfurContent0.6%HighSulfurSpotCoalPrice$2.30/mmBtuCase3(Florida)(Florida)HeatContent24mmBtu/tonPSA=$565.60=-$76.82SulfurContent1.4%PA=$642.42Pct:"PSA=14%LowSulfurCoalPrice$3.50/mmBtu(Florida)HeatContent25mmBtu/tonSulfurContent0.7%

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TheSO2AllowancePrice.DatawasgiventomebyDallasBurtrawofResourcesfortheFuture Figure2-2. ExcessDemandCorrespondenceandComplianceCostSavingsfromFuelSwitchingOverAllowancePurchasing 119

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HighSulfurContract:ShiftinMinimumExcessDemand Figure2-4. NoContract:ComplianceCosts Figure2-5. HighSulfurContract:ComplianceandTotalCosts 120

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HighSulfurContract:RelativeSavingsfromContractCoal Figure2-7. CostSavingsfromUsingAllowancesOverFuelSwitching Figure2-8. LowSulfurContract 121

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NoContract:ComplianceCosts Figure2-10. LowSulfurCoalContract:MCAs;ci LowSulfurCoalContract:MCAs;ci

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ComplianceCosts:PA=MCAs;si HighSulfurCoalContract Figure2-14. LowSulfurCoalContract 123

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ExcessDemandCorrespondence:MCAs;si
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ImpactofaHighSulfurCoalContract:MCAs;siPSA ImpactofaLowSulfurCoalContract:MCAs;si>PSA

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ImpactofalowsulfurCoalContract:MCANSi
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Giventhescrubberchoice,anallowancemarketequilibriumwillexist.Allowingforthescrubberchoicemakesitimpossibletoguaranteeanequilibrium,butonestillmayexist.Bindingfuelcontractsmayleadtoalteredunit-levelexcessdemandsand,insodoing,theallowancemarketprice(PA).Meanwhile,bindingcontractscanaltercompliancedecisionsandincreasetotalindustrycompliancecosts. Thispaperusesgeneratingunit-levelsimulationstoreplicateresultsfrompreviousstudiesandshowthatshort-runfuelcontractsappeartoexplainalargeportionofthepreviouslyunexplainedexcesscompliancecostsfoundinprevioussimulations.Simulatingtheleast-costcompliancechoiceswithoutincludingfuelcontractconstraintsresultsinminimumannualindustrycompliancecostsof$288.3million,whichvariesgreatlyfromtheactualcompliancecostsof$1.30billionfoundinthesesimulations.Oncefuelcontractconstraintsareintroducedintothesimulation,theminimumannualindustrycompliancecostsbecome$1.01billion.Basedontheseresults,fuelcontractconstraintsexplain$651.1million,or64%oftheexcesscompliancecostsrealizedintheprogramfor1996. 127

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Thepaperwillbestructuredinthefollowingmanner:Section2willlookattheconditionsforanallowancemarketequilibriumwhileSection3willlookatthecomparativestaticsoftheallowancemarket.Section4willlookatcompliancecosts,bothforanindividualgeneratingunitandtheentireindustry.Section5andSection6willexplainthedatausedinthegeneratingunitlevelsimulationsandtheresultsfromtheactualsimulations,respectively.Section7willanalyzetheplantleveldecisionmakingprocess,howitdiersfromthegeneratingunitlevelmodel,andwhatadditionalinformationthemodelwilladdtotheliterature. 3.2.1GeneratingUnitProblem subjectto...Aei+Ai(1ziri)(m)(CsihSsih+CcihScih+CsilSsil+CcilScil)i1 (CsihHsih+CcihHcih+CsilHsil+CcilHcil)Dii2 128

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(3{6) Equation( 3{1 )representstheunit'scostfunction.Thesecostsincludethecostofscrubberinstallation(ziPiz),netcostsofallowancepurchases(PAAi),andcostsofcoalpurchases(PsihCsih+PsilCsil+PcihCcih+PcilCcil).Theemissionsconstraintisshownin( 3{2 ),wherethenumberofallowancesheld(Aei+Ai)mustbeaslargeastheamountoftotalemissionsbythegeneratingunit[(1ziri)(m)(CsihSsih+CcihScih+CsilSsil+CcilScil)].Totalemissionsisafunctionoftheamountofeachcoaltypeusedaswellastheemissionsreductionduetoascrubber,ifoneisinstalled.TheLagrangemultiplierontheemissionsconstraintisrepresentedbyi1.Thedemandconstraintrequiresthattheamountofheatinputtogenerateelectricity(CsihHsih+CcihHcih+CsilHsil+CcilHcil)mustcovertheconsumerdemand(Di)forelectricityexpressedasheatinput,whichisseenin( 3{3 ).TheLagrangemultiplieronthedemandconstraintisrepresentedbyi2.Coalcontractconstraintsrequiretheunittouseaspecicamountofeachcontractcoaltype, 3{4 )and 3{5 ).Aunitwilluseexactlythecontractedamountbecause(1)ifthecontractcoalismoreexpensivethanspotmarketcoal,thenaunitwillnotwanttouseanymorecontractcoalthanisnecessaryand(2)ifcontractcoalischeaperthanspotmarketcoal,thecoalproducerwouldprefertosellanyadditionalnon-contractedcoalthroughthespotmarket.TheLagrangemultiplierforeachcontractconstraintoneachcoaltypeisrepresentedbyihforhighsulfurcontractcoalandilforlowsulfurcontractcoal. 129

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Introducingahighsulfurcoalcontractconstraintwillrestrictspotmarketcoaluseby Introducingalowsulfurcoalcontractconstraintwillrestrictspotmarketcoaluseby 130

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Allowingthescrubberchoicetobeendogenousresultsinmorecompleximpactsofcoalcontractsoncompliancedecisions.Ageneratingunitthatdoesnotfaceanycoalcontractconstraintswillmakeitsoptimalchoicesbasedontwoconditions:(1)therelationshipofPArelativetotheallowancepriceatwhichaunitisindierenttoinstallingascrubber(PSA)and(2)therelationshipofPArelativetoMCAs;sigiventhescrubberchoice. IfPSA>PA,aunitwillnotinstallascrubberbecausetotalcoststothegeneratingunitwillbelowerwithoutinstallingascrubber.Theresultingcoaluseandexcessdemandwillbethesameasdescribedabove:Csih=Di,Csil=0,andAi=AMAXiifPAMCAs;siwhereMCAs;siisthemarginalcostofabatementfromswitchingfuelswithoutascrubber. IfPSAMeCAs;si. Theresultisacombinationofthetwoexcessdemandcorrespondenceswhereatsomeallowanceprice(PSA)whereascrubberwillbeinstalledthereisalargenon-continuousdecreaseinaunit'sexcessdemand. Introducingahighsulfurcoalcontractconstraintwillhavethesamedirectimpactsaswhenscrubbersaregiven.Coalusewillberestrictedby 131

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Introducingalowsulfurcoalcontractconstraintwillhavethesamedirectimpactsaswhenscrubbersaregiven.Coalusewillberestrictedby Insummary,coalcontractswillrestrictaunit'scoaluseoptions,whichmayalteraunit'scompliancechoicesandexcessdemandforallowances.Lessfreedomincompliancedecisionsmayresultinanincreaseinaunit'scompliancecosts. 132

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minzi;Ai;Csih;CsilziPiz+PAAi+PsihCsih+PsilCsil+PcihCcih+PcilCcil subjectto...Aei+Ai(1ziri)(m)(CsihSsih+CcihScih+CsilSsil+CcilScil) (3{9) (CsihHsih+CcihHcih+CsilHsil+CcilHcil)Di (3{13) (3{15) (2)Theallowancemarketclears.AtPA, FromKakutani'sFixedPointTheorem,axedpointexistsifthemarketexcessdemandcorrespondenceuppersemi-continuous,compact-valued,andconvex-valued.Eachgeneratingunit'sexcessdemandcorrespondencesareuppersemi-continuous,compact-valued,andconvex-valued,whichimpliesthatthemarketexcessdemandisalsouppersemi-continuous,compact-valued,andconvex-valued.Giventheseconditionsthereisaxedpoint,andtherefore,anequilibriumexists.Notethattheremaybemultipleequilibria,butthereisatleastoneequilibrium.TheProofofTheorem1isinAppendixB. Theexistenceofanallowancemarketequilibriumisnolongerguaranteedoncethediscretescrubberchoiceisintroducedintothemodel.Thenon-convexnatureofthescrubberdecisionvariablemakesitimpossibletoguaranteethatanequilibriumexistsbecausetheexcessdemandisnolongerconvexfortherange(ASMAXi;AMINi).Insuch 133

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3.4.1ComparativeStatics:EectofRelativeFuelCostontheAllowanceMarket 3{17 ). ConsidertheimpactofanincreaseinthepriceoflowsulfurspotmarketcoalontheMCAs;si.Anincreaseinthepricedierencebetweenfuelsperunitofheatfrom(Psil 3{17 )andresultsinanincreaseinthemarginalcostofabatementfromMCAs;sitoMCAs;si+where= Hsil HsihSsil Hsil).AhigherMCAs;simakestherelativecosttothegeneratingunitpurchasingallowanceslower,andwillleadtoaweakincreaseinaunit'sexcessdemand.ExcessdemandwillincreaseifMCAs;siPAandnotchangeifMCAs;si+PA.Greaterexcessdemandintheallowancemarketresultsinanincreaseinthetotalallowancemarketdemandandpossiblyadecreaseinallowancemarketsupply,bothofwhichwillweaklyincreasePA. 134

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IfPAMCAs;si,ageneratingunitpreferstoswitchfuelsfromhightolowsulfurcoal,createitsminimumpossibleemissions,andhaveanexcessdemandofAMINi.However,thehighsulfurcoalcontractwouldforcegreaterthantheminimumamountofemissionsandweaklyincreaseexcessdemandtobAMINi.Ahigherexcessdemandwillleadtoadecreaseintheallowancemarketsupplyorbothadecreaseinallowancemarketsupplyandanincreaseintheallowancemarketdemand.InbothcasesPAweaklyincreases. 135

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IfPA>MCAs;si,ageneratingunitpreferstoswitchfuelsfromhightolowsulfurcoal,createitsminimumpossibleemissions,andhaveanexcessdemandofAMINi.Assumingthesamerelativesulfurcontentforspotandcontractcoal,alowsulfurcoalcontractwillnotchangetotalemissionsorexcessdemand(bAMINi=AMINi)andPAremainsunchanged. IfPA
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Whenyouconsiderthescrubberchoiceinthedecision-makingprocess,itisuncertainhowacoalcontractwillaecttheallowancemarketbecausethecontractmayincreaseordecreaseexcessdemanddependingontheallowancepricerangesderivedinChapter2.Althoughitiscertainthatifthecoalcontractbinds,thentherewillbeashifttoasub-optimalexcessdemandforthreedierentallowancepriceranges. Ifageneratingunithasahighsulfurcoalcontract,theunit'sexcessdemandincreasesfortwoallowancepriceranges:(PA>MeCAs;si)and(PSA>PA>MCAs;si).TheincreaseinexcessdemandwillbefromASMINitobAMINiwhen(PA>MeCAs;si).TheincreaseinexcessdemandwillbefromAMINitobAMINiorAMINitoAMAXiwhen(PSA>PA>MCAs;si),dependingontherelationshipbetween(PSA)andMCAs;si.Itwillbethelatterinthespecialcasewherethegeneratingunitalwayspreferstousehighsulfurcoal. Whenthemarketallowancepriceisinthesetworangesthatresultinanincreaseinageneratingunit'sexcessdemand,therewillbeeitheranincreaseinthemarketdemandforallowances,orbothanincreaseinmarketdemandandadecreaseinmarketsupplyforallowances.Inbothsituations,theallowancepricewillbedrivenhigher. Thethirdpricerangethathasashiftintheexcessdemandis(PSA;PSA).AgeneratingunitdecreasesitsexcessdemandfromAMINitoASMAXi,whichisaresultofaunitinstallingascrubberforapricerangeforwhichitinitiallywouldnotinstallascrubber. 137

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Ifageneratingunithasalowsulfurcoalcontract,theunit'sexcessdemanddecreasesfortwoallowancepriceranges:(MeCAs;si>PA>PSA+)and(minfPSA;MCAs;sig>PA).ThedecreaseinexcessdemandwillbefromASMAXitobAMAXiwhen(MeCAs;si>PA>PSA+).ThedecreaseinexcessdemandwillbefromAMAXitobAMAXiwhen(minfPSA;MCAs;sig>PA). Whenthemarketallowancepriceisintheserangesthatresultinadecreaseinageneratingunit'sexcessdemand,therewillbeeitherandecreaseinthemarketdemandforallowances,orbothandecreaseinmarketdemandandaincreaseinmarketsupplyforallowances.Inbothsituations,PAwillbedrivenlower. Thethirdpricerangethathasashiftintheexcessdemandis(PSA;PSA+).AgeneratingunitincreasesitsexcessdemandfromeitherASMAXitoAMINiorASMAXitobAMAXidependingontherelationshipbetween(PSA+)andMCAs;si.Thisincreaseisaresultofaunitnotinstallingascrubberforapricerangeforitinitiallywouldhaveinstalledascrubber. Whenthemarketallowancepriceisinthisrangethatresultsinanincreaseinageneratingunit'sexcessdemand,therewillbeeitheranincreaseinthemarketdemandforallowances,orbothanincreaseinmarketdemandandadecreaseinmarketsupplyforallowances.Inbothsituations,PAwillbedrivenhigher. 138

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3{18 )). Compliancecostsmaybepositiveornegativedependingonitscompliancedecisionsanditsinitialallowanceallocation.ThescrubberinstallationcostsarerepresentedbyPiz,andwillonlyattributetoaunit'scompliancecostsifascrubberisinstalledinresponsetotheprogram(zi=1).Thecostsofaunit'snetallowancepositionisthedierencebetweenageneratingunit'sinitialallowanceallocationanditsactualemissionsmultipliedbytheallowanceprice(PAAi).Thecostsofswitchingfuelsisthelargeroftwovalues:(1)totalcostsofactualcoalpurchases(PsihCsih+PsilCsil+Pcih 139

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(bziPiz+PAbAi+PsilbCsil+PsihbCsih+Pcih Theminimumcompliancecostchoiceswithnocontractconstraintforpreviousstudiesaredenotedby\"whilethecontractconstrainedminimumcompliancecostchoicesaredenotedby\^"in( 3{20 ).Theassumed\c"isthetotalcostsofmeetingdemandassumingnocontractconstraintoremissionsconstraint.Thecostdierencebetweenthesetwosetsofchoiceswillbethecombinationofchangesincompliancedecisionsandfuelcosts.Someofthese\excesscompliancecosts"maynotbecompliancecosts,whichmakesthederivedcompliancecoststoohigh.Soitisimportanttoincludethecontractconstrainedcoaluseinthebaseline\c"togettheappropriatecompliancecosts.Assumingthatcontractedcoalisatleastasexpensiveasspotmarketcoal,thecompliancecostswillbegreaterforthecontractconstrainedcaseasshownin( 3{20 )andasexpressedin( 3{21 ). Considerasimpleexamplewherehighsulfurcontractcoalismoreexpensivethanhighsulfurspotmarketcoal,lowsulfurcoalispreferredoverhighsulfurcoal,andnoscrubberwouldbeinstalledifageneratingunithadtotalfreedominitscoalusechoices.Nowcompareageneratingunit'scompliancecoststothecompliancecostsaunitwould 140

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3{22 )includetheadditionalcostsfromanincreaseinallowancepurchasesandadecreaseincoalcostsfromusingcheaper,butdirtierfuel. Sincethecontractcoalwouldhavetobeusedregardlessofenactmentoftheprogram,theadditionalcostsforhighsulfurcontractcoaluseinsteadofhighsulfurspotmarketcoal(PcihCc;MAXihPsihCs;MAXih)shouldnotbeincludedincompliancecosts.However,previousstudieswouldrecognizethesefuelcostsascompliancecostsbasedontheassumedcostminimizationwithoutcontractconstraints. Theappropriateunit-levelcompliancecostswilltaketheformshownin( 3{23 )wherethebaselinetotalcostswilltakethevalue\bc",whichrepresentsthecostsofmeetingelectricitydemandgiventhecoalcontractconstraint.Thesecosts\bc"willbedierentthan\c"becausethespotmarketcoalusewillbealteredifthecontractedcoaldiersrelativethespotmarketcoalitreplacesinproduction. 3{25 ). 141

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3{26 )arethesumofthecompliancecostsforeachgeneratingunit.Similartothegeneratingunit'sprobleminChapter2,therearetwoconstraintsthatmustbemet.First,thesumofallowanceallocationsmustcoverthesumofemissionsthatareemittedbyallaectedgeneratingunits.Second,eachgeneratingunitmustproduceenoughelectricitytocoveritselectricitydemandrequirement. minzi;Ai;Csih;CsilnXi=1ziPiz+maxf(PsilCsil+PsihCsihPsihCs;MAXih);0g Solvefortherst-orderconditionsgivenzi.Forhighsulfurcoal: Forlowsulfurcoal: 142

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Theserst-orderconditionscanbeusedtosolvefori1,theallowanceshadowprice,whichisalsothesameasforthegeneratingunitproblem.SincethecompliancechoicesthatminimizethecostsforallgeneratingunitsresultintheequilibriumPA,theallowancechoicesalsominimizethetotalindustrycosts. (3{29) Thesameapproachcanbeusedundertheindustry-widecompliancecostproblemwithcoalcontractconstraintstoshowthatcontractconstrainedminimumtotalindustrycompliancecostwilldierfromtheunconstrainedcosts. minzi;Ai;Csih;CsilnXi=1[ziPiz+maxf(PsilbCsil+PsihbCsihPsihbCs;MAXih);0g] (3{30) Forlowsulfurspotmarketcoal... 143

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(3{33) Theserst-orderconditionscanbeusedtosolvefori1,theallowanceshadowprice,whichisalsothesameasfortheindividualgeneratingunitproblem.Ifageneratingunituseshighsulfurcoal,PAMCAs;si.Ifageneratingunituseslowsulfurcoal,PAMCAs;si.Ifageneratingunitusesbothhighandlowsulfurcoal,PA=MCAs;si.Soageneratingunit'scostminimizingchoicesofzi;Csih;Csil;Asiforeachgeneratingunitalsominimizetotalindustrycompliancecosts.IfthecontractconstrainedcompliancechoicesthatminimizethecostsforageneratingunitresultsinanequilibriumPA,thechoicesalsominimizethecontractconstrainedtotalindustrycosts.Notethattheoptimalparametercombinationforthecontractconstrainedcasewillnotbethesameasundertheunconstrainedcase. Ithasalreadybeenshownthatanybindingcontractconstraintforanindividualgeneratingunitwillresultinasub-optimalcombinationofcoaluse,whichwillweaklyincreasecompliancecostsforthecontractconstrainedgeneratingunit.Anysub-optimalchoicesmadebyonegeneratingunitwillweaklyincreasethecostsfortheentireindustry. 144

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Theimportanceoftheallowanceallocationinthesepreviousstudiesreliesontheexistenceoftransactioncosts.However,thismodelhasassumednoallowancetransactioncosts,whichallowsittoshowthatevenwithcoalcontractconstraintstheallowanceallocationdistributionwillnotimpactageneratingunit'scompliancechoicesorthetotalindustrycompliancecosts. Thechoicebetweenswitchingfuelsorpurchasingallowancesisbasedsolelyonageneratingunit'srelativemarginalcostofpurchasingthenextallowancecomparedtotheeectivemarginalcostofabatingthenextunitofemissions.Ascanbeseen,Aeihasnoimpactonageneratingunit'scompliancedecisions.Ageneratingunitwilluseallowances 145

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(3{36) (bAieAi)PSA (cEi+AeifEiAei)PSA(3{37) Nowconsiderthecompliancechoicesmadeafterthescrubberinstallationdecision.ItwasshowninChapter2thatageneratingunit'scompliancechoicesarebasedontherelationshipbetweenthePAandMCAs;siorMeCAs;si,dependingontheunit'sscrubberchoice,foraparticularunitofcoal.Similartowhatwasshownabove,ageneratingunit'sMeCAs;siandMCAs;siforagivenunitofcoalarenotaectedbyAeibecauseallowancesarenotaparameterinthemarginalcostofabatement.MeCAs;si=Pil 146

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3.6.1Introduction Therstportionofthissectionwilllookatthedatausedtoparameterizethesimulationmodel,whichincludesadescriptionofwherethedatawasobtained,thetechniquesusedtocreatetheparameters,andsomeissuesregardingthedata.Thesecondportionwilllookatthemodeldesignandapproach.Thelastportionwillsummarizethesimulationresultsintermsofthetotalindustry,individualstates,andindividualgeneratingunits. Uptothispointallgeneratingunitsareassumedtobecoal-redunitsbecauseitistheprimaryfueloptionsforelectricitygenerationintheU.S.However,thereare24unitsofthe431unitsthatusedfueloilornaturalgasforelectricitygeneration.ThetreatmentoftheseunitsisdescribedinSection6.2.1. 147

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TheheatcontentofdeliveredcoalisinBtusofheatpertonofcoal,barrelofoil,or1,000cubicfeetofnaturalgas.Allfuelparametersareconvertedintermsofaheatcontentbaselinetoallowforcomparisonsacrossunits. Thepurchasingagreementislabeledastwopossibleparameters:(1)spotmarketand(2)contractpurchases.Anagreementisconsideredaspotmarketpurchaseiftheagreementisforlessthan2years.Purchasingagreementsoftwoyearsorgreaterareconsideredtobeundercontract.Theamountoffuelundercontractisintons,barrels,or1,000cubicfeetdependingonthefuel.Thedataismanipulatedintototalheatcontentbymultiplyingtheheatcontentperunitoffuelbytheamountoffueldelivered. Sincecoaldeliveriesaremadeattheplantlevel,thesizeofthecontractconstraintisnoteasilyderivedforeachgeneratingunit.Theparameterfortheamountofcontractcoalforeachgeneratingunitwasderivedinthefollowingmanner.First,anyunitatagivenplantthatactuallyinstalledascrubberisallocatedasmuchhighsulfurcontractcoalaspossiblewhilereceivingaslittlelowsulfurcontractcoalaspossible.Thereasoningforthisisthataunitwithascrubberwillhavealargermarginalcostofabatementfromswitchingfuels(MCAs;si
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3-1 andwouldbeconsideredcoalstoredattheplantforusethefollowingyear. Sulfurcontentisthepercentageofeachtonofcoal,barrelofoil,or1,000cubicfeetofnaturalgasthatissulfur.Thedatamustbemanipulatedtocreatethedesiredvariable,whichispoundsofsulfurdioxidepermillionBtusofheat.PhaseIofTitleIVdistributesallowanceallocationsbasedon2.5poundsofSO2permillionBtusofheat.Sofuelisconsidered\highsulfur"ifcontainsgreaterthen2.5lbs.ofSO2permmBtuand\lowsulfur"ifitcontainslessthan2.5lbs.ofSO2permmBtu.Anycoalusethathasahigher(lower)sulfurcontentwillincrease(decrease)emissionsabove(below)itsallocationallows. 149

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AlthoughnearlyallgeneratingunitsaectedbyPhaseIwerecoal-redunits,24unitsusefueloilornaturalgasforelectricitygeneration.Fortheseunits,fueloilisdesignatedashighsulfurfueloptionwhilenaturalgasisdesignatedasthelowersulfurfueloptionfornon-coalredunits. Thedeliveredpriceisthecentsperton,barrel,or1,000cubicfeetpaidatthetimeofdelivery.Thepriceincludesthepurchasingofthefuelandthetransportationcostsofshipment.ThepriceisconvertedtothepriceoffuelincentspermillionBtus.Aseparatedeliveredpriceisrequiredforbothhighsulfurandlowsulfurfuel,whichisaweightedaverageofalldeliveriesofeachcategoryofcoal.Sothehigh(low)sulfurpriceusedinthesimulationsistheweightedaveragedeliveredpriceforallhigh(low)sulfurcoaldeliveries.TheparameterusedinthesimulationsisactuallydollarspermmBtu,orcents/mmBtudividedby100. Anotherissueisthatnotallgeneratingunitspurchasedbothhighsulfurandlowsulfurfuel.Proxieswererequiredtodeterminethefuelcharacteristicsfacingeachunit,andwerersttakenfromothergeneratingunitsthatwereownedbythesamecompanywhereavailable.Ifaunitdidnothaveanotherunitunderthesamecompany,aproxywastakenfromthegeographicallyclosestplantbecauseshippingcostsareanimportantfactorindeterminingthedeliveredprice.RegionalvariationinpriceswillbemuchsmallervariationinpricesacrosstheU.S. 150

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ScrubbercostdatawasfoundintheEIA's\ElectricPowerAnnual1997".Thedatawasthehistoricalscrubbercostdata,includingstate-by-stateaverageinstalledcostsperkilowattofcapacity,averageoperationandmaintenancecostsintermsofmillsperkilowatt-hour,megawattsofcapacityforunitswithscrubbersinstalled,andsulfurremovaleciency. 151

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Anendogenousscrubberchoicecreatesanon-convexitythatmaynotresultinanallowancemarketequilibrium.Insuchacase,therewillbeeitherapositiveoranegativeexcessdemandforallowancesandanallowancepriceatwhichageneratingunitisindierenttoinstallingascrubber.Thiscouldbeconsidereda\quasi-equilibrium"wheretheexcessdemandiseitherboughtfromorsoldtoanallowancebrokeratthe\quasi-equilibrium"allowanceprice.ThetechnicalexplanationofthebisectioniterativeprocessusedtoconvergetoanequilibriumallowancepriceisdescribedindetailinAppendixB. 152

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First,considertheabilityofthesimulationmodelstorecreatetheresultsfrompreviousstudies.Simulation1recreatestheunconstrainedcost-minimizationresultsfromSotkiewicz(2003)andSotkiewiczandHolt(2005).Therewere17scrubbersthatwereinstalledasaresultoftheNewSourcePerformanceStandards(NSPS)andwereunrelatedtoTitleIV.Assumingthesescrubbersasgiven,thetotalcoststotheindustryofmeetingelectricitydemandwere$7.69billion.Thesecostswillbeusedasthebaselinetotalindustrycoststodeterminetotalindustrycompliancecostscomparabletopreviousstudies. Simulation3recreatestheemissionsconstrainedresultsfromSotkiewiczandHolt(2005)assumingthe46scrubbersthatwereinstalledin1996asgiven.Thesimulationresultsinanallowancepriceof$149.64,whichexactlyreplicatestheallowancepricefoundbySotkiewicz(2003)andSotkiewiczandHolt(2005).Totalindustrycostsare$8.23billionwhere29scrubberswereactuallyinstalledinresponsetoTitleIV.ThedierencebetweenSimulation3andSimulation1isthetotalindustrycompliancecostsofmeetingtheemissionsconstraint,whichis$541millionandsimilartotheresultsfoundinprevious 153

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TheallowancemarketdoesnotclearinSimulation4becausegeneratingunitsareallowedtomaketheirscrubberchoice.Thediscretenatureofscrubberinstallationleadstoanon-negativeexcessdemand.However,theexcesssupplyof53,576allowancesinSimulation4accountforlessthan1%ofthe5+millionallowancemarketandcouldbeassumedtobebankedforfutureuseorsoldtoanallowancebroker,whichcouldbeconsideredaquasi-equilibrium. 154

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Simulation6introducesfuelcontractconstraintstothetheemissionsconstrainedmodelwhileallowinggeneratingunitstomaketheirscrubberchoice.Thesimulationresultsinanallowancepriceof$210.74.Totalindustrycostsare$8.63billionwhere44scrubbersareinstalledinresponsetoTitleIV.TheminimumcompliancecostswhencomparedtoSimulation1are$939million,or$651millionhigherthanifcontractsarenottakenintoconsideration.TheminimumcompliancecostsareclosetotheactualcostfoundinSotkiewiczandHolt(2005)at$990millionandCarlsonetal.(2000)at$910million. Allowinggeneratingunitstochoosewhethertoinstallascrubberallowstheindustrytoloweritstotalcostsby$132million.Aswouldbeexpected,introducingthecontractconstraintresultsinmorescrubberinstallationsduetoTitleIVfrom27to44becausehigh-sulfurfuelcontractsincreasetheincentiveforaconstrainedgeneratingunittoinstallascrubber.AsinSimulation4,theallowancemarketdoesnotclearduetothediscrete,endogenousscrubberchoice.However,theexcessdemandof7,797allowancesaccountforlessthan0.2%ofthe5+millionallowancemarket,andcouldbeassumedtobeboughtfromanallowancebroker. TheactualtotalindustrycompliancecostsarefoundinSimulation7.Byusingtheactualemissionsandelectricityproductionforeachunit,itispossibletodetermineeachunit'sactualcoalmix.Theseactualdecisionsresultedinanallowancepricerange 155

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Third,the\true"compliancecostswilldierfromtheseestimatesbecausetheappropriatebaselinewasnotused.AsshownanalyticallyinSection4,comparingSimulation5andSimulation6toSimulation1isnotthemostappropriatemeasureofcompliancecosts.Thecontractconstraintsshouldbeincludedinboththebaselinesimulationandthepolicy-restrictedsimulation.Simulation2runsthesamemodelasinSimulation1exceptthatitincludescontractconstraintsandresultsintotalindustrycostsof$8.27billion.ThedierencebetweentotalindustrycostsinSimulation1andSimulation2aretheadditionalcostsduetocontractconstraints,whichare$582million.TheseadditionalcostswouldhaveresultedwithorwithouttheSO2TradingProgramandshouldnotbeconsideredcompliancecosts.Thisisakeyresultbecausethesecostswerelabeledcompliancecostsbypreviousstudieseventhoughthesecostsarearesultofgeneratingunitslockinginpricestoprotectfromtheuncertaintyofhighercoalpricesinthefuture. BycomparingresultsinSimulation5toSimulation2,theminimumcompliancecostsconsideringcontractsandgiventhescrubberchoicearefoundtobe$490.1million.\True"minimumcompliancecostsaremuchlower($610millionlower)oncethisadditionalconstraintisincludedinthemodel.InSimulation6,the\true"minimumcompliancecostsare$357.8million,or$581.6millionlessthanifcontractsareexcludedfromthemodel.Thesearesimilartotheleast-costresultsfoundbySotkiewicz(2003)at$340-$527million,SotkiewiczandHolt(2005)at$423-$553million,andCarlsonetal.(2000)at$571million. 156

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Simulation4usesatotalof2,651,410,732mmBtuofhighsulfurcoal(41.4%)and3,750,168,009mmBtuoflowsulfurcoal(58.6%).Simulation6usesatotalof2,614,773,732mmBtuofhighsulfurcoal(40.8%)and3,786,804,109mmBtuoflowsulfurcoal(59.2%).Includingcontractconstraintsintothemodelresultsina0.6%decreaseinhighsulfurcoalrelativetoSimulation4.Overallcoalusedoesnotappeartohavebeensignicantlyaltered.However,thisdoesnottellthewholestory.Contractconstraintsledto27units(6.3%ofaectedunits)usingasuboptimalcoalcombination.5ofthe27unitshadachangeofatleast98%ofcoaluseand15ofthe27hadatleasta50%changeincoaluse.14ofthe27unitshadanincreaseinhighsulfurcoalusewhile13unitshadandecreaseofhighsulfurcoaluse.Theconcernwiththecontractsisnotnecessarilythattheentire 157

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Second,comparingscrubberinstallationsinSimulation6toSimulation5willshowhowscrubberdecisionswouldbealteredifthescrubberdecisionismadeendogenousandcontractconstraintsareincludedinthemodel.Allowingthescrubberchoicetobeendogenousresultsin53generatingunitsalteringtheirscrubberchoice,including19scrubberstoberemovedand34tobeaddedforatotalof15moreinstalledscrubbers.27generatingunitsmaintainthesamescrubberchoices,but17ofthosewereinstalledforNSPS.So10scrubberinstallationsremainedthesame. Finally,itisimportanttoconsidertheimpactscontractconstraintshaveonaunit'sendogenousscrubberinstallationdecision,whichcanbedeterminedbycomparingSimulation6toSimulation4.33scrubberchoicesarealteredasaresultofcontractconstraints,including25unitsthatwillnowinstallascrubberand8unitsthatnolongerinstallascrubber.Ofthe25unitsthatchosetoinstallascrubber,20ofthemhadahighsulfurcoalcontract.Ofthe8unitsthatchosetonotinstallascrubber,all8ofthemhadalowsulfurcoalcontract.So28of33scrubberchoicesappeartohavebeendirectly 158

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3-4 ,contractconstraintsincreasescrubberinstallationsinOhio,Alabama,Florida,Indiana,Mississippi,andMissourianddecreasescrubberinstallationsinWestVirginia,NewYork,Pennsylvania,Wisconsin,Georgia,Kentucky,andNewJersey. AnunexpectedresultinSimulation6isthatscrubberinstallationsactuallyincreaserelativetoSimulation5.Thesearelikelyaresultoftheassumedscrubbercostestimatesbecausethehistoricalscrubbercostdatausedinthesimulationsislowerthantheengineeringcostestimates.Scrubbersappearcheapertoinstallthantheengineeringestimatesstate.Ofthe404generatingunitswithatleasta90%removalrate,31historicalcapitalcostestimatesarehigher,84arethesame,and289arelowerthantheestimatedengineeringcapitalcosts. AscanbeseeninTable 3-5 ,thereisasignicantdierenceinscrubberinstallations.Theuseofengineeringcostestimatesforscrubberinstallationresultsinadecreaseinscrubberinstallationsfrom44to25inSimulation4andfrom61to38inSimulation6becauseofthehighercostsinvolved.Noticethatintroducingcontractconstraintsresultsinadditionalscrubberinstallationsfrom25to38,whichisclosetotheactualinstallationsof46scrubbers.Compliancecostinterpretationsremainsimilartosimulationsusing 159

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160

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3.7.1Introduction Aplantleveldecision-makingmodelismorerealisticthanageneratingunitlevelmodeltodeterminecompliancedecisionsbecausecoaldeliveriesaremadeattheplantlevelwherethereareoftenmultiplegeneratingunits.Allgeneratingunitsatthatplantfacingthesamecoaluseoptions,includingsulfurcontents,heatcontents,anddeliveredpricesforbothspotmarketandcontractcoal.Thecontractconstraintsbecomemorecomplexinthismodelwherethesumofcontractcoaluseforallgeneratingunitsataplantmustcoverthecontractrequirement,Pni=1Ccif 161

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Threeadditionalfactorswillbeofgreatimportanceattheplantlevel.First,plantsareabletotradeallowancesbetweengeneratingunitsasneededtocoveremissionsatnoadditionalcosts.Theliteraturehasstatedthattradingallowancesbetweenitsunitsatthesameplanthasbeenacommonoccurrence,whichsupportstheuseofamodelthatconsidersdecisionsattheplantlevelinsteadofthegeneratingunitlevel. AplantmayhaveoneormoregeneratingunitsatitslocationthatarenotaectedbyPhaseIanddoesnothavetomeetanyemissionsrequirements.Owninganon-aected 162

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minzi;Ai;Csih;Csil;Ccih;CcilnXi=1ziPiz+PAAi+PshCsih+PslCsil+PchCcih+PclCcil subjectto...Aei+Ai(1ziri)(m)[CsihSsh+CcihSch+CsilSsh+CcilScl]i1 (CsihHsh+CcihHch+CsilHsl+CcilHcl)Dii2 (3{44) TheLagrangemultiplieronageneratingunit'semissionsconstraintisrepresentedbyi1.TheLagrangemultiplieronageneratingunit'sdemandconstraintisrepresentedbyi2.Coalcontractconstraintsrequireaplanttouseaminimumamountofeachcontractcoal 163

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SinceAicanbeeitherpositiveornegativebasedonthenetallowanceposition,( 3{46 )willholdwithequality.Theadditionalcosttothermofemittingonemoretonofemissionsisequivalenttotheallowanceprice,i1=PA,whichisthesameresultasfromthepreviousmodels. ThepartialderivativewithrespecttoCsihrepresentstheimpactaoneunitchangeinhighsulfurspotmarketcoalhasontheunit'stotalcosts. Ifthegeneratingunitusessomeamountofhighsulfurspotmarketcoal(Csih>0),then( 3{47 )holdswithequality. ThepartialderivativewithrespecttoCsilrepresentstheimpactaoneunitchangeinlowsulfurspotmarketcoalhasontheunit'stotalcosts. Similartohighsulfurspotmarketcoal,ifthegeneratingunitusessomelowsulfurspotmarketcoal(Cil>0),then( 3{48 )holdswithequality. 164

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Unlikewithhighsulfurspotmarketcoal,highsulfurcontractcoalwillbeimpactedbythehighsulfurcoalcontractconstraint(h).Ifthegeneratingunitusessomeamountofhighsulfurcontractcoal(Ccih>0),then( 3{49 )holdswithequality. ThepartialderivativewithrespecttoCcilrepresentstheimpactaoneunitchangeinlowsulfurcontractcoalhasontheunit'stotalcosts. Unlikewithlowsulfurspotmarketcoal,lowsulfurcontractcoalwillbeimpactedbythelowsulfurcoalcontractconstraint(l).Similartohighsulfurcontractcoal,ifthegeneratingunitusessomelowsulfurcontractcoal(Ccil>0),then( 3{50 )holdswithequality. 165

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3{47 )and( 3{48 )holdwithequality.Theadditionalcoststothegeneratingunitofusingonemoreunitoflowsulfurspotmarketcoalisequaltotheadditionalcostsofusingonemoreunitofhighsulfurspotmarketcoal. Sinceboth( 3{47 )and( 3{48 )holdwithequality,itispossibletondanexpressionfor(i2)ineachequationandsetthetwoexpressionsequaltoeachotherandderivetheallowanceshadowprice(i1)in( 3{52 ). Asdiscussedearlier,theallowanceshadowprice(i1)isanexpressionforageneratingunit'sMarginalCostofAbatementfromSwitchingfromhighsulfurspotmarkettolowsulfurspotmarketcoal(MCAs;si).From( 3{46 ),wealsoknowthattheactualallowancepriceequalstheallowanceshadowprice(PA=i1).Ascanbeseenin( 3{52 ),theallowanceprice(PA)equalstothemarginalcostofabatement(MCAs;si),whichistheincreaseincoalcostsfromswitchingfromhighsulfurspottolowsulfurspotmarketcoalperunitofreducedemissions. Themarginalcostsofabatementmayormaynotdieracrossgeneratingunits.Ifaplantdoesnotinstallanyscrubbers,thenMCAs;si=MCAs;sj8fi;jgforallgeneratingunitsandtheplant'schoiceswillbeidenticaltothegeneratingunits'decisionsinSection5.Thiscanbeseenin( 3{52 )wheretheonlywaythatthemarginalcostsofabatementcandieracrossgeneratingunitsisthroughthescrubberchoiceandascrubber'semissionscapturerate.Ifallgeneratingunitsatagivenplantbothinstallascrubberwhereri=rj, 166

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Marginalcostsofabatementwillonlydieracrossgeneratingunitsataplantif(1)aplantinstallsascrubberatsomebutnotallofitsgeneratingunits,or(2)aplantinstallsascrubberatallitsgeneratingunitsbutthescrubbershavedierentcapturerates(ri6=rj9fi;jg).Wewillintroducethescrubberchoice,andderiveitsimpactonaplant'schoiceslater. 3{47 )holdswithequalityand( 3{48 )holdswithweakinequalityresultingin( 3{53 ). Equation( 3{53 )statesthatadditionalcoststothegeneratingunitofusingonemoreunitofhighsulfurspotmarketcoalisweaklylessthanorequaltotheadditionalcostsofusingonemoreunitoflowsulfurspotmarketcoalinclusiveofemissionsanddemandrequirements. FollowingSection6.4.1wecanderivetherelationofPAtoMCAs;si.Bycomparingthesetwoexpressionsandsolvingfori2,yougetaninequalitycomparingi1=PAandMCAs;si.Sincethegeneratingunituseshighsulfurspotmarketcoal,theallowancepriceisweaklylessthanthemarginalcostofabatement(PAMCAs;si)asshownin( 3{54 ). 3{47 )holdswithequalityand( 3{48 )holdwithweakinequalityresultingin( 3{55 ).Theadditionalcoststothegeneratingunitofusingone 167

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OnceagainwecanderivetherelationofPAtoMCAs;si.Bycomparingthesetwoexpressionsandsolvingfori2,yougetaninequalitycomparingi1=PAandMCAs;si.Sincethegeneratingunituseslowsulfurspotmarketcoal,theallowancepriceisweaklygreaterthanthemarginalcostofabatement(PAMCAs;si)asshownin( 3{56 ). First,ifageneratingunitfacesPA
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3{41 ).Assumingonlylowsulfurspotmarketcoalusetomeetdemand,themaximumamountoflowsulfurcoalisexpressedin( 3{59 ). ReplacingCsilin( 3{41 )withtheexpressionin( 3{59 )forCs;MAXilgivesanexpressionfortheminimumallowanceexcessdemandin( 3{60 ).Ageneratingunit'sminimumexcessdemandmustcoverthedierencebetweenitsinitialallowanceallocation(Aei)andtheamountofallowancesneededtocovertheunit'sminimumactualemissions[EMINi=(1ziri)(m)(Ssil)(Di IfPA=MCAs;si,ageneratingunitmayuseanycombinationofhighsulfurspotmarketcoalandlowsulfurspotmarketcoalandleadtoanylevelofexcessdemandintherange(EMINiAei;EMAXiAei).TheallowanceexcessdemandcanberepresentedbyAi=(EMAXi(1)EMINiAei)wheretheconstant2[0;1].Aunitthatisindierentbetweenfuelswitchingandallowancespurchasingcouldbeeitheranetbuyeroranetseller. Combiningtheexcessdemandsforeachofthethreecasescreatestheexcessdemandcorrespondenceshownbelow.Ai=8>>>><>>>>:AMAXiifPA>MCAs;siAMAXi(1)AMINiifPA=MCAs;si82[0;1]AMINiifPA
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Theuseofcontractcoalwillbebasedontherelativemarginalcostsofusingcontractcoalateachgeneratingunitoperatedbyaplant.Aplantwillchoosetousecontractcoalatthegeneratingunitthatwillresultinthelowestincreaseintheplant'stotalcosts.Tomakethesecostcomparisons,itisnecessarytoderivethemarginalcostsofabatementforthegivencombinationofspotandcontractcoalandcomparethemacrossgeneratingunits.Initiallywewillignoreaplant'sscrubberchoiceforeachgeneratingunitandaplantmakesthesamechoiceforallitsgeneratingunits(zi=zj=0,orzi=zj=1andri=rj).Undertheseconditions,themarginalcostsofabatementareidenticalacrossallgeneratingunits,anditdoesnotmatteratwhichofthesegeneratingunitsthecontractcoalisused.Thiswillbeshownseparatelyforbothahighsulfurandlowsulfurcoalcontractbecausetheuseofhighsulfurcontractcoalisindependentoflowsulfurcontractcoalandvisaversa. 3{61 ).Themarginalcostofabatementfromswitchingfromhighsulfurcontractcoaltolowsulfurspotmarketcoal(MCAc;si)willbethesameforallgeneratingunitsthatmakethesamescrubberinstallationchoice(zi),includingthesamescrubber 170

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Allunitsatwhichaplantdoesnotinstallascrubberhavethesamemarginalcostofabatementofswitchingfromhighsulfurcontractcoaltolowsulfurspotmarketcoal(MCAc;si=MCAc;sj).AlsoallunitsataplantthatinstallascrubberwiththesamecaptureratewillhaveidenticalMCAc;si. 3{62 ).TheMCAs;ciwillbethesameforallgeneratingunitsthatmakethesamescrubberinstallationchoice,includingthesamescrubbertechnologywiththesamecapturerate.Psh+i1(1ziri)(m)(Ssh)+i2Hsh=Pcl+i1(1ziri)(m)(Scl)+i2Hcll Allunitsatwhichaplantdoesnotinstallascrubberhavethesamemarginalcostofabatementofswitchingfromhighsulfurspotmarketcoaltolowsulfurcontractcoal(MCAs;ci=MCAs;cj).AlsoallunitsataplantthatinstallascrubberwiththesamecaptureratewillhaveidenticalMCAs;ci. 171

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Theemissionsconstraintdoesnotbind(i1=0)fortheseunits,whichmeansthat\non-aected"generatingunitswillprefertousethecoaltypewiththelowestdeliveredprice.Formostplantsthiswillbehighsulfurcoal,particularlythoselocatedintheEasternU.S. 3{63 )and( 3{64 ). @Csih=Pshi2Hsh0;=0ifCsih>0(3{63) and @Csil=Psli2Hsl0;=0ifCsil>0(3{64) Assumingthatageneratingunitusesbothhighandlowsulfurspotmarketcoal,weuse( 3{63 )and( 3{64 )toderive( 3{65 ).Ifageneratingunitusesbothhighandlowsulfurspotmarketcoal,thenthepriceperunitofheatinputisequalforbothcoaltypes.Aplantwillnolongermakeit'sgeneratingunitlevelfuelchoicesbasedonitsmarginalcostofabatementbecauseitnolongerisconcernedaboutabatingemissions. Byusingtherst-orderconditions,wecandeterminewhenageneratingunitwillonlyuseonetypeofspotmarketcoal.Ifageneratingunitusesonlyhighsulfurspotmarket 172

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3{63 )holdswithequalityand( 3{64 )remainsweaklygreaterthanzeroandlowsulfurcoalisweaklymoreexpensive(Psh 3{64 )holdswithequalityand( 3{63 )remainsweaklygreaterthanzeroandhighsulfurspotmarketcoalismoreexpensive(Psh First,assumethattwogeneratingunits(Unit\i"andUnit\j")arebothaectedunits.Aplantwillbeindierenttousinghighsulfurcontractcoalateitherunitwhentherst-orderconditionsforusinghighsulfurcontractcoalareequalacrossgeneratingunits.Pch+i1(1ziri)(m)(Sch)i2Hchh=Pch+j1(1zjrj)(m)(Sch)j2Hchh NowassumethatUnit\i"isanaectedunitanditsemissionsconstraintbinds(i1>0)whileUnit\j"isnotaectedandtheemissionsconstraintwillnotbind(j1=0).Underthiscondition,theadditionalcostsofusinghighsulfurcontractcoalatanaectedunitisgreaterthanatanon-aectedunit.Pch+i1(1ziri)(m)(Sch)i2Hchh>Pchj2Hchh)i1(1ziri)(m)(Sch)i2Hch>j2Hch 173

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174

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First,considerthemarginalcostofabatementofswitchingfromhighsulfurspotmarketcoaltolowsulfurspotmarketcoal(MCAs;si)withascrubberin( 3{68 ),andcompareittothemarginalcostofabatementwithoutascrubberin( 3{69 ).AsinChapter2,ascrubberdecreasesthesavingsfromswitchingspotmarketfuelsbecauseascrubbercausestheemissionsreductiontobesmallerthanwithoutascrubber. Second,considerthemarginalcostofabatementofswitchingfromhighsulfurcontractcoaltolowsulfurspotmarketcoal(MCAc;si)withascrubberin( 3{70 ),andcompareittothemarginalcostofabatementwithoutascrubberin( 3{71 ).Asinthecaseofonlyspotmarketcoal,installingascrubberdecreasesthesavingsfromswitchingfuels.Inthecaseofahighsulfurcontract,itislesscostlytoaplanttousehighsulfurcoalataparticulargeneratingunitifithasascrubber. Third,considerthemarginalcostofabatementofswitchingfromhighsulfurspotmarketcoaltolowsulfurcontractcoal(MCAs;ci)withascrubberin( 3{72 ),andcompareittothemarginalcostofabatementwithoutascrubberin( 3{73 ).Asinthetwocasesabove,installingascrubberdecreasesthesavingsfromswitchingfuels.Inthecaseofalow 175

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Foreachcombinationofcoaltypes,installingascrubberdecreasesthesizeofthedenominator,whichincreasesMCAi.AsinChapter2,ascrubbergreatlydecreasesthesavingsfromswitchingfuels.AhigherMCAiincreasestherangeofallowancepricesatwhichaplantwillprefertopurchaseallowancesinsteadofswitchingfuelsbyloweringthepriceatwhichageneratingunitwillbeindierentbetweenpurchasingallowancesandswitchingfromhighsulfurtolowsulfurcoal.Anyunitoperatedbyaplantthathasascrubberwillhavealargermarginalcostofabatementthananyunitwithoutascrubber(MeCAi>MCAj). Thedecisionisbasedsolelyonaunit'sACAibecausethemarginalcostsofabatementareequalacrossgeneratingunitswithnoscrubbersinstalledattheplant. 176

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AssumethatallgeneratingunitsoperatedbyaplantareaectedbyPhaseI,eachunitusesitscostminimizingcombinationofcoalandallowancesbasedonitsscrubberchoice,andtheunitsaresortedbyACAifromsmallesttolargest(ACA1
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Generalizingthiscondition,aplant'sdecisiontoinstallascrubberatgeneratingunit\m".Aplantwillinstall\m"scrubbersatthe\m"largestgeneratingunitsifC(z1=1;z2=1;:::;zm=1;zm+1=0;:::;zn=0)
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Assumingnocontractcoal,wecanderivetheallowancepriceatwhichaplantisindierenttoinstallingascrubberforagivengeneratingunitin( 3{75 ). (bAieAi)(3{75) Aspecialcaseexistsfor( 3{75 )inwhichthegeneratingunitisanon-aectedunit,whichresultsinPA!1becausetheunitdoesnothavetocoveritsemissionswithallowancesandgainsnothingfrominstallingascrubber.AnindierencepriceofinnityimpliesthatascrubberwillneverbeinstalledatUnit\i"ifitanunaectedunit. (bAieAi)=Piz+Psh(eCsihbCsih)+Psl(eCsilbCsil) 0=1(3{76) 179

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Aplantwithabindinghighsulfurcoalcontracthasagreaterincentivetoinstallascrubberateachofitsgeneratingunitsbecauseitmustusesomehighsulfurcoal,evenifitwouldprefertouselowsulfurcoalatallgeneratingunits.AhighsulfurcoalcontractdecreasestheindierencepriceatwhichaunitwillinstallascrubberfromPAto(PA)foreachgeneratingunit.TheincentivemaynotbelargeenoughtoresultinascrubberinstallationatitsgeneratingunitwiththelowestACAi.Insuchascase,aplantisindierenttousinghighsulfurcontractcoalatanyofitsgeneratingunitsbecauseallunitshavethesameMCAc;si. AbindinghighsulfurcoalcontractresultsinadecreaseinPSA. AtPSAwhere... 180

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ThisisthesameresultasinChapter2whereahighsulfurcoalcontractresultsinaninecientcoalusecombinationofhighandlowsulfurcoal.Theindierencepriceatwhichaplantwillinstallascrubberatagivengeneratingunitwillweaklydecreasewhenaplantchoosestousehighsulfurcontractcoalatthatunit. 181

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AbindinglowsulfurcoalcontractresultsinanincreaseinPSA. AtPSAwhere... Iflowsulfurcontractcoalisatleastasexpensiveaslowsulfurspotmarketcoal,weknowthat... ThisisthesameresultasinChapter2.Alowsulfurcoalcontractresultsinaninecientcoalusecombinationofhighandlowsulfurcoal.Theindierencepriceatwhichaplantwillinstallascrubberatagivengeneratingunitwillweaklyincreasewhenaplantchoosestouselowsulfurcontractcoalatthatunit. 182

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3{81 ).Theamountofcontractcoalisthesamenomatterthescrubberchoiceateachgeneratingunitmadebyaplant. (bA1eA1) (3{81) Second,thetotalcoststotheplantofnotinstallinganyscrubbersmustbelessthanthetotalcostsofinstallingscrubbersatbothgeneratingunits. 3{82 ). (bA1eA1)+(bA2eA2) (3{82) TheminimumofthetwoPSAwillbetheallowancepriceatwhichaplantisindierenttoinstallingascrubberandnotinstallinganyscrubbers.Noticethattheallowanceprice 183

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3{83 ). Second,thetotalcostsofinstallingonegeneratingunitmustbelowerthanthetotalcostsofinstallingtwoscrubbers. 3{84 ). (bA2eA2)>PSA Theallowancepricemustbebetweenthesetwoindierenceprices,whichresultsinPSAPAforUnit2. 184

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3{85 ). (bA2eA2)
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3-7 Aplantwithnocontractcoalwillprefertoinstallnoscrubbersiftheallowancepriceisbelow$194.48.Anallowancepricebetween$194.48and$230.89willleadaplanttoinstallascrubberatUnit1,butnotatUnit2.Aplantwillinstallscrubbersatbothunitsiftheallowancepriceisgreaterthan$230.89. Nowconsidertheplanthasahighsulfurcoalcontractfor28.92%ofcoaluse(13,855,269mmBtu),whichwillaltertheindierenceatwhichaplantwillinstallascrubberatUnit1.WehavealreadyshownthathighsulfurcontractcoalwillbeusedatthegeneratingunitwiththelowestACAi,whichisUnit1.TherequireduseofhighsulfurcoalwilllowertheallowanceindierentpricetoinstallingascrubberatUnit1to$140.69.TherewillbenochangeintheindierencepricetoinstallingascrubberatUnit2becausethehighsulfurcoalcontractdoesnotbindforthatgeneratingunit. Nowconsidertheplanthasahighsulfurcoalcontractforallofitscoaluseinbothgeneratingunits(47,913,973mmBtu).Theindierencepricesforbothgeneratingunitswillbothdecreaseasaresult.TheallowancepriceatwhichtheplantwillinstallascrubberatUnit1willagainbe$140.49.TheindierencepriceforUnit2willdecreaseto$153.61.Ahighsulfurcoalcontractforallofageneratingunit'scoalrequirementsresultsinlargereductionsoftheallowancepriceatwhichaplantwillbeindierenttoinstallingascrubberforbothUnit1($54or28%)andUnit2($77or33%). 186

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3{87 ). (bA1eA1) (3{87) 3{88 ). (bA1eA1) (3{88) 187

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Aplantlevelmodelismorerealisticthanageneratingunitlevelmodelbecausecoaldeliveriesaremadeattheplantlevelwherethereareoftenmultiplegeneratingunits.Operatingmultipleunitsallowsaplanttorelaxitscontractconstraintbecausethereareadditionaldegreesoffreedominfuelusedependingoneachunit'semissions,demand,andcoalcontractconstraints.Also,plantsareabletotradeallowancesbetweengeneratingunitsasneededtocoveremissionsatnoadditionalcost.Aplantmayalsohaveoneormore\non-aected"generatingunits,whichfacenoemissionsconstraint.Anyhighsulfurcontractcoalcanbeusedatthesenon-aectunitswithoutanynegativenancialrepercussionsduetothepolicy.Thesefactorscanleadtoplant-levelchoicesthatdonotminimizeeachgeneratingunit'stotalcosts. Anallowancemarketequilibriumwillexistonlyifthediscretescrubberchoiceisgiven.Allowingforanendogenousscrubberchoicemakesitimpossibletoguaranteeanequilibrium,althoughonemaystillmayexist.Bindingfuelcontractsmayalteraunit'scompliancedecisionsandexcessdemand.Alteringcompliancedecisionscouldleadtobothanalteredallowancemarketpriceandanincreasetotalindustrycompliancecosts. Generatingunit-levelsimulationswereabletoeectivelyreplicatetheresultsfrompreviousstudiesandshowthatfuelcontractscanexplainaportionofthepreviouslyunexplainedexcesscompliancecosts.Simulatingtheleast-costcompliancechoiceswithout 188

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Aplant'sdecision-makingprocessmaynotminimizecostsforeachgeneratingunitbecauseaplant'sconcernisbasedonthecombinedcostsofallgeneratingunitsunderitsoperationalcontrol.Thechoicetoinstallascrubberisbasedonthecharacteristicsofalltheunitsataplant,notjusttheunitatwhichthescrubbermaybeinstalled.OncetheorderofpreferredscrubberinstallationsisdeterminedbasedontheACAi,aplantisabletomakeitscostminimizingfuelchoices. Aplantlevelmodelismorerealisticthanageneratingunitlevelmodelbecausecoaldeliveriesaremadeattheplantlevelwherethereareoftenmultiplegeneratingunits.Operatingmultipleunitsallowsaplanttorelaxitscontractconstraintbecausethereareadditionaldegreesoffreedominfuelusedependingoneachunit'semissions,demand,andcoalcontractconstraints.Also,plantsareabletotradeallowancesbetweengeneratingunitsasneededtocoveremissionsatnoadditionalcost.Aplantmayalsohaveoneormore\non-aected"generatingunits,whichfacenoemissionsconstraint.Anyhighsulfurcontractcoalcanbeusedatthesenon-aectunitswithoutanynegativenancialrepercussionsduetothepolicy.Thesefactorscanleadtoplant-levelchoicesthatdonotminimizeeachgeneratingunit'stotalcosts. 189

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Example:ContractCoalDistribution Plant-LevelConstraintTotalmmBtuUnitDemandScrubber HighSulfurContract300,0001200,000YesLowSulfurContract300,0002200,000NoDemand600,0003200,000No CoalDist'nbyUnitHighSulfurCoalLowSulfurCoal Unit1200,0000Unit250,000150,000Unit350,000150,000 Table3-2. SulfurConversionbyFuelType FuelEmissionsConversionFactorBaseline Bituminous(38*SulfurContent)/(mmBtuperton)=lbs.SO2/mmBtuSub-bituminous(35*SulfurContent)/(mmBtuperton)=lbs.SO2/mmBtuAnthracite(39*SulfurContent)/(mmBtuperton)=lbs.SO2/mmBtuLignite(30*SulfurContent)/(mmBtuperton)=lbs.SO2/mmBtuFuelOil#2(144*SulfurContent)/(mmBtuper1,000bbl.)=lbs.SO2/mmBtuFuelOil#6(162*SulfurContent)/(mmBtuper1,000bbl.)=lbs.SO2/mmBtuNaturalGas(0.60lbs.SO2/mmCF)/(mmBtupermmCF)=lbs.SO2/mmBtu 190

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SimulationResults Sim.EmissionsContractScrubberScrubbersPAAiTotalCostsCompl.CostsComp.CostsConstraintConstraintChoiceInstalledvs.(Sim.1)vs.(Sim.2) (1)NONOGiven17NANA$7,685,800,000NANA(2)NOYESGiven17NANA$8,267,400,000NANA(3)YESNOGiven46$149.640$8,226,500,000$540,700,000NA(4)YESNOChosen44$155.58-53,576$7,974,100,000$288,300,000NA(5)YESYESGiven46$206.700$8,757,500,000$1,071,700,000$490,100,000(6)YESYESChosen61$210.747,797$8,625,200,000$939,400,000$357,800,000(7)--Actual46NANA$8,983,500,000$1,297,700,000$716,100,000

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ImpactofContractConstraintonScrubberChoice StateDecreaseStateIncrease WV-4MO2NY-2MS2PA-2IN3WI-2FL4GA-1AL7KY-1OH10NJ-1 Table3-5. SimulationswithEngineeringData Sim.AiPAScrubbersIndustryCostsComp.CostsComp.CostsInstalled(vs.1)(vs.2) 1NANA17$7,685,800,000NANA2NANA17$8,267,400,000NANA30$149.6446$8,239,000,000$553,200,000NA41,972$214.8325$8,010,200,000$324,400,000NA50$207.6046$8,770,900,000$1,085,100,000$503,500,00062,611$238.5538$8,686,300,000$1,000,500,000$418,900,0007NANA46$8,995,600,000$1,309,800,000$728,200,000 Table3-6. ImpactsofaReductionintheAllowanceAllocationof10% Simulation4InitialAllocationAllocationMinus10%Increase IndustryComplianceCosts$288,300,000$381,900,000$93,600,000ScrubbersInstalled446117AllowancePrice$155.58$189.43$33.85 Simulation6InitialAllocationAllocationMinus10%Increase IndustryComplianceCosts$357,800,000$476,600,000$118,800,000ScrubbersInstalled617312AllowancePrice$210.74$222.22$11.48 Table3-7. MathExample:TwoAectedUnits LowSulfurSpot$1.200.625%24mmBtuHighSulfurSpot$1.102.580%24mmBtuHighSulfurContract$1.152.580%24mmBtu GeneratingUnitPizriDemand(mmBtu) Unit1$2,719,32090%13,855,269Unit2$7,298,41290%34,058,704 ScrubberInstallationPSA:NoContractPSA:Unit1DemandPSA:Unit1andUnit2Demand None<$194.48<$140.69<$140.69Unit1($194.48,$230.89)($140.69,$230.89)($140.69,$153.61)Unit2$230.89$230.89$153.61

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ExcessDemandCorrespondence Figure3-2. ImpactofHighSulfurCoalContract 193

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ImpactofLowSulfurCoalContract Figure3-4. ExcessDemandCorrespondencewithScrubberChoice 194

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ImpactsofHighSulfurCoalContract Figure3-6. ImpactsofLowSulfurCoalContract 195

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GivenScrubberChoice:ShiftfromHighSulfurContract Figure3-8. GivenScrubberChoice:ShiftfromLowSulfurContract 196

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WithScrubberChoice:ShiftfromHighSulfurContract 197

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WithScrubberChoice:ShiftfromLowSulfurContract 198

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Withtheemissionsconstraintfromtheprogram,aunitwillminimizeitscostsofcoaluse,netallowancepurchases,andscrubberinstallation. Thedierencebetween( A{1 )and( A{2 )isthetotalcompliancecostsresultingfromtheprogram,whichincludesthechangeincoalcosts,changeinthenetallowancepurchases,andscrubberinstallationcosts. Second,consideraunit'stotalcostswithacoalcontractconstraint.Withouttheprogramrestrictionsonemissions,aunitwillsimplyminimizeitscostsofmeetingelectricitydemandbyusingallthethecoalundercontract,andcovertheremainderofitscoaldemandwiththecoalwiththelowestpriceperunitofheatcontent. Withtheemissionsconstraint,aunitwillminimizeitscostsforcoaluse,netallowancepurchases,andscrubberinstallationgivenitsemissionsandcoalcontractconstraint. 199

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A{4 )and( A{5 )isthetotalcompliancecostsresultingfromtheprogram,whichincludesthechangeinspotmarketcoalcosts,netallowancepurchases,andscrubberinstallation.Thecostsfromcontractcoalcanceloutbecausecontractcoalusewillbethesamebothwithandwithouttheprogram. Thesucientconditionsunderwhichacoalcontractconstraintwillincreaseordecreaseaunit'scompliancecostscanbederivedfromthedierenceincompliancecostswithandwithoutacoalcontract( A{6 )minus( A{3 ).hbziPiz+PAbAi+Psih(bCsihbCs0ih)+Psil(bCsilbCs0il)i Forsimplicity,assumethatthescrubberchoiceasagivenandhighsulfurspotmarketcoalisrelativelycheaperthanlowsulfurspotmarketcoal.Sowithoutanemissionsconstraintaunitwillprefertousethecheaperhighsulfurcoal.Proposition1canbeprovenbyconsideringthechangeincompliancecostsin( A{8 )resultingfromacoalcontract.FirstconsiderahighsulfurcoalcontracttoshowProposition1(i)andProposition1(ii)hold. 200

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Thechangeincompliancecostswillbe: ThersttermispositivebecausebAMINiAMINi.ThesecondtermisalsopositivebecauseCs;MAXihbCs;MAXih.ThethirdtermisnegativebecausebCs;MAXilCs;MAXil. Nowllinforcoaluse:Cs;MAXih=Di Nowllinforthenetallowanceposition:AMINi=Di 201

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Allcoaluseremainsthesame,whichmeansthechangeincompliancecostswillbetheincreaseincostsfromadditionalallowances.IfScih 202

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Thechangeincompliancecostswillbetheincreaseincostsfromtheincreaseinaunit'snetallowanceposition.IfScil Thechangeincompliancecostsisthechangeincostsfromthechangeinnetallowanceposition.Nowllinforthenetallowanceposition:AMAXi=Di SinceScil 203

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A{5 )-( A{2 ))andsplititintotwocomponents,thechangeincompliancecostsandthechangeinfuelcosts.Forsimplicity,assumetheconditionsinProposition1(i)hold. Assumethataunitfacesahighsulfurcoalcontract,andpreferstoswitchtolowsulfurcoalusetomeetitsemissionsrequirementinsteadofpurchasingallowancesorinstallingascrubber. Tobeabletointerpretthisexpression,itisnecessarytoaddandsubtract(Psih Thersttermisthechangeinhighsulfurcoalcostsfromusingthecontractcoalinsteadofspotmarketcoal.Thesearenotchangesincompliancecostsbecausetheywilloccurwithorwithouttheprogram.Theremainingtermsarethechangeincompliancecostsresultingfromtheprogram. {z }ChangeinFuelCosts+PA(bAMINiAMINi)+(Psih {z }ChangeinComplianceCosts(A{19) Byllinginforthecoaluse,thelasttermsgivethesameexpressionforthechangeincompliancecostsasintheproofofProposition1(i). Aunit'scompliancecostsincreaseifScih 204

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Assumingascrubberisinstalled,thecost-minimizingcombinationofinputsisexpressedbelow. Noticethatcontractcoaluseandthecostofinstallingascrubbercanbeignoredbecauseallareconstants. 205

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Theorem5.1:Assumingthescrubberchoice(zi)asgiven,amarketequilibriumexists. Kakutani'sFixedPointTheoremthatstates:IfXisanon-empty,compact,convexsubsetofRmandiffisanuppersemi-continuouscorrespondencefromXintoitselfsuchthat(8x2X)thesetf(x)isnon-emptyandconvex,thenfhasaxedpoint(thereisanx2f(x)). Itisnecessarytoshowthatthesetofpricesiscompact(closedandbounded).Denethelowerboundonpricetobezerobecauseitisnecessarytohaveapositiveprice.Denetheupperboundonpricetobe 206

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PA],whichisnon-emptybydesign.Sincethereisanupperbound,alowerbound,andbothboundsareincludedintheset(closed),thesetiscompact. Sincethesetofpricesandmarketexcessdemandsarecompactandthemarketexcessdemanddependsontheallowanceprice,themarketexcessdemand(Am(PA))isamappingfrom[0; PA]intoX.Itisnecessarytoshowthatexcessdemandisnon-empty,convexvaluedateachPA2[0; PA],anduppersemi-continuous.Itissucienttoshowthateachgeneratingunit'sexcessdemandcorrespondenceisnon-empty,convex,anduppersemi-continuousbecausethesumofanitenumberofnon-empty,convex,uppersemi-continuouscorrespondencesisalsonon-empty,convex,anduppersemi-continuous. Ageneratingunits'excessdemand(Ai(PA))aredenedtobemappingsfrom[0; PA]intoX,whichmakesthemnon-emptybyconstruction.Ageneratingunit'sexcessdemandcorrespondenceisclosedandboundedintheinterval[AMINi;AMAXi],whichmakesitacompactset.Thesetofexcessdemandsisconvexbecausetheaverageofanytwoexcessdemandvaluesisalsointheset.Foracorrespondencetobeuppersemi-continuous,theconvergenceexcessdemandvalueofanypricesequencemustalsobeinthecorrespondence.Sinceeverypossiblepricesequenceconvergestoavaluethatisintheexcessdemandcorrespondence(seeFigure B.2 ),eachunit'sexcessdemandcorrespondenceisuppersemi-continuous. NowwemustdenethemappingfromXintothesetofprices[0; PA]as(x)where... PA]:PAx=maxQ2[ PA]:PAx=0ifotherwise Since[0; PA]isnon-empty,(x)mustbenon-emptyaswell.Themappingisconvexvaluedsinceformarketexcessdemandequaltozero(x=0),(x)=[0; PA].Ifthereisa 207

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PA]iscompact,thegraphof(x)isclosed,whichimplies(x)isuppersemi-continuous. NowdeneF(x;PA)=(x)Am(PA).Since(x)andAm(PA)satisfyallpropertiesneededtoapplyKakutani'sFixedPointTheorem,thereexistsaxedpoint(x;PA)suchthatPA2[0; PA]andx2XsuchthatPA2(x)andx2Am(PA). Oncethescrubberchoiceisintroducedintothedecision-makingprocess,thecorrespondencebecomesmorecomplex,asseeninFigure B.2 .Anequilibriummayinfactexist,butthereisnowaytoguaranteeanequilibriumbecausetheexcessdemandcorrespondenceisnolongeraconvexset.Theaverageofthetwoexcessdemandvalues(ASMAXiandAMINi)isnotintheexcessdemandcorrespondence. Ifmarketexcessdemandispositive,theallowancepriceistoolowandtheallowancepriceisincreasedbyone-halfthedierencebetweentheupperandlowerlimits.Theoldpricenowbecomesthenewlowerlimitwhiletheupperlimitremainsthesame.Ifthemarketexcessdemandisnegative,theallowancepriceistoohighandtheallowancepriceisdecreasedbyone-halfthedierencebetweentheupperandlowerlimits.Theoldpricebecomesthenewupperlimitandthelowerlimitremainsthesame.Inthiscase,theupper 208

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Theprogramisthenrunagainwiththenewallowanceprice,eachiterationdecreasingthedierencebetweentheupperandlowerlimitsbyhalfuntiltheprogramconvergestoanallowanceprice.Oncetheprogramconverges,itmustensureamarketexcessdemandofzero.Aconcernisthattheprogramtendstopushaunit'schoicestowardsacornersolutionwherethemarketmaynotclear. Giventhescrubberchoice,theallowancepricewillconvergetoavalueequaltoatleastonegeneratingunit'sMCAs;si,whichallowsthosermschoicestobeshiftedtoaninteriorsolutiontoclearthemarketwithoutalteringtheunit'stotalcostsortotalindustrycostsbecausetheunitisindierenttopurchasingallowancesorswitchingfuelsfromhightolowsulfurcoalattheequilibriumallowanceprice(PA). AllowingforthescrubberchoicewillresultintheconvergenceofPAatanallowancepricewhereageneratingunitisindierenttoinstallingascrubber.Inthiscase,thereisnotatrueequilibriumandmustconsideritaquasi-equilibriumasdescribedabove. 209

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UpperSemi-ContinuousCorrespondence FigureB-2. CorrespondencewithScrubberChoice 210

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JoshuaDavidKneifelwasbornin1981inNorthPlatte,Nebraska.HegrewupinNorthPlatte,graduatingsalutatorianfromHersheyHighSchoolin1999.Joshuareceivedhisbachelor'sdegreesineconomicsandmathematicsin2003fromDoaneCollegeinCrete,Nebraska.HereceivedhisMasteroftheArtsineconomicsin2005fromtheUniversityofFlorida,wherehespecializedinindustrialorganization,publiceconomics,andeconometrics.FromFall2006throughSpring2008,Joshuainstructedfoursemestersofacourseinenvironmentaleconomics.HisclassworkandresearchallowedhimtoobtainhisPhDineconomicsfromtheUniversityofFlorida.UponcompletionofhisPhDprogram,hewilltakeaneconomistpositionattheNationalInstituteofStandardsandTechnology(NIST)inGaithersburg,Maryland.HisresponsibilitiesatNISTwillincluderesearchonthelife-cyclecostandenvironmentalimpactsofindividualproductsusedintheconstructionindustry. 216