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Impact of Promotional Tactics on Consumers Demand for Fruit Juices

Permanent Link: http://ufdc.ufl.edu/UFE0022420/00001

Material Information

Title: Impact of Promotional Tactics on Consumers Demand for Fruit Juices
Physical Description: 1 online resource (156 p.)
Language: english
Creator: Knight, Erika
Publisher: University of Florida
Place of Publication: Gainesville, Fla.
Publication Date: 2008

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords: beverages, consumer, promotions, rotterdam, separability
Food and Resource Economics -- Dissertations, Academic -- UF
Genre: Food and Resource Economics thesis, Ph.D.
bibliography   ( marcgt )
theses   ( marcgt )
government publication (state, provincial, terriorial, dependent)   ( marcgt )
born-digital   ( sobekcm )
Electronic Thesis or Dissertation

Notes

Abstract: Supermarket shelves are saturated with numerous varieties and brands of juice beverages. This high level of assortment has dramatically changed beverage consumption patterns and trends throughout the United States. With more firms contending for consumers' dollars, companies utilize price and non-price promotional strategies to increase market share of their brands. The primary objective of this study is to understand the interrelationship between brands of orange juice and brands of other juice beverages. To accomplish this goal it is imperative to understand how consumers allocate total beverage expenditures by empirically testing block-wise separability among orange juice, fruit juices, and fruit drinks. Secondly, this study analyzes the impact of retail promotions on the demand for beverages in the previously mentioned categories. The absolute price version of the Rotterdam model is used to empirically test for separability and evaluate the impact of retail promotions on intra and inter demand relationships using AC Nielsen scanner data for major retail outlets earning more than $2 million in sales. Results indicate that consumers do not perceive orange juice, fruit juices, and fruit drinks as separable categories. Findings also suggest that display and features advertisement used simultaneously had the largest impact on demand. Display only and feature only were also significant and had a positive impact on marginal utility. The majority of the beverage brands included in this study were deal inelastic.
General Note: In the series University of Florida Digital Collections.
General Note: Includes vita.
Bibliography: Includes bibliographical references.
Source of Description: Description based on online resource; title from PDF title page.
Source of Description: This bibliographic record is available under the Creative Commons CC0 public domain dedication. The University of Florida Libraries, as creator of this bibliographic record, has waived all rights to it worldwide under copyright law, including all related and neighboring rights, to the extent allowed by law.
Statement of Responsibility: by Erika Knight.
Thesis: Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Florida, 2008.
Local: Adviser: House, Lisa O.

Record Information

Source Institution: UFRGP
Rights Management: Applicable rights reserved.
Classification: lcc - LD1780 2008
System ID: UFE0022420:00001

Permanent Link: http://ufdc.ufl.edu/UFE0022420/00001

Material Information

Title: Impact of Promotional Tactics on Consumers Demand for Fruit Juices
Physical Description: 1 online resource (156 p.)
Language: english
Creator: Knight, Erika
Publisher: University of Florida
Place of Publication: Gainesville, Fla.
Publication Date: 2008

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords: beverages, consumer, promotions, rotterdam, separability
Food and Resource Economics -- Dissertations, Academic -- UF
Genre: Food and Resource Economics thesis, Ph.D.
bibliography   ( marcgt )
theses   ( marcgt )
government publication (state, provincial, terriorial, dependent)   ( marcgt )
born-digital   ( sobekcm )
Electronic Thesis or Dissertation

Notes

Abstract: Supermarket shelves are saturated with numerous varieties and brands of juice beverages. This high level of assortment has dramatically changed beverage consumption patterns and trends throughout the United States. With more firms contending for consumers' dollars, companies utilize price and non-price promotional strategies to increase market share of their brands. The primary objective of this study is to understand the interrelationship between brands of orange juice and brands of other juice beverages. To accomplish this goal it is imperative to understand how consumers allocate total beverage expenditures by empirically testing block-wise separability among orange juice, fruit juices, and fruit drinks. Secondly, this study analyzes the impact of retail promotions on the demand for beverages in the previously mentioned categories. The absolute price version of the Rotterdam model is used to empirically test for separability and evaluate the impact of retail promotions on intra and inter demand relationships using AC Nielsen scanner data for major retail outlets earning more than $2 million in sales. Results indicate that consumers do not perceive orange juice, fruit juices, and fruit drinks as separable categories. Findings also suggest that display and features advertisement used simultaneously had the largest impact on demand. Display only and feature only were also significant and had a positive impact on marginal utility. The majority of the beverage brands included in this study were deal inelastic.
General Note: In the series University of Florida Digital Collections.
General Note: Includes vita.
Bibliography: Includes bibliographical references.
Source of Description: Description based on online resource; title from PDF title page.
Source of Description: This bibliographic record is available under the Creative Commons CC0 public domain dedication. The University of Florida Libraries, as creator of this bibliographic record, has waived all rights to it worldwide under copyright law, including all related and neighboring rights, to the extent allowed by law.
Statement of Responsibility: by Erika Knight.
Thesis: Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Florida, 2008.
Local: Adviser: House, Lisa O.

Record Information

Source Institution: UFRGP
Rights Management: Applicable rights reserved.
Classification: lcc - LD1780 2008
System ID: UFE0022420:00001


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579c24a6768d985395f7537f9d1b024f1045a94c







IMPACT OF PROMOTIONAL TACTICS ON CONSUMERS' DEMAND FOR FRUIT
JUICES

















By

ERIKA PATRICE KNIGHT


A DISSERTATION PRESENTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL
OF THE UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT
OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF
DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY

UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA

2008


































2008 Erika Patrice Knight

































To my mother and father.









ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

First and foremost, I thank God for giving me the strength I needed to successfully

complete this Ph.D. program. I know it only because of His grace and mercy that I have had the

remarkable opportunity. I thank parents, husband, sisters, and remaining family and friends for

their unwavering support, words of encouragement and patience throughout the past the years.

These individuals are another reason I have made it to this point of my life.

I express my deepest appreciation to my advisor Lisa House, for her continuous support,

guidance, advisement, and knowledge shared throughout my journey through graduate school. I

also grateful for her advisement, guidance, and knowledge shared while completing my

dissertation. A special thanks goes to Jonq-Ying Lee, who is responsible for helping me with my

empirical analysis. Without his patience and guidance I could not have finished this dissertation.

I would also like to thank my remaining committee members, Drs. Thomas Spreen, Mark Brown,

and Steve Shugan for interest and support while preparing my dissertation. Finally, I would like

to thank McKnight staff and Food and Resource Economics Department and my fellow graduate

students in the Food and Resource Economics Department for their support and encouragement.









TABLE OF CONTENTS

page

A CK N O W LED G M EN T S .................................................................. ........... .............. .....

LIST OF TABLES ......... ...... ... .............................................7

LIST OF FIGURES .................................. .. .... ... ...............9

A B S T R A C T ......... ........................ ............................................................ 10

CHAPTER

1 IN TRODU CTION .......................................................................... ......... 11

B a c k g ro u n d .............................................................. ................................................ 1 1
Researchable Problem ................................. ... .. .... .... ........ ........ 20
O bje ctiv e s ................... ...................2...................1..........
O u tlin e .............. ..... ..............................................................2 1

2 L ITE R A TU R E R E V IE W .............................................................................. ..................... 22

3 TH E O R E T IC A L M O D E L ............................................................ .....................................27

C onsum er D em and T theory .............................................................................. ............... 27
Separability and M ulti-Stage Budgeting ........................................... ........................... 39
The Rotterdam M odel ............... ...................... .......... ............ ............. 43
A ggreg action Issu es....................................................................... 4 5

4 DATA SOURCE AND DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS ............... ............................... 46

D ata S ou rces ................... ...................4...................6..........
Separability M odel.....................................................47
Promotional Model ................... ........ .. ........... .................... 50
R retailer X .............................................................5 0
R e ta ile r Z .....................................................................................................5 3

5 E M P IR IC A L M O D E L ................................................................ ....................................... 58

E m p irical M o d els....................................................................... 5 8
Separability M odel ........................ .... .................. .... .. ......... .........58
Prom optional M odel .................................................... ........... ......... 62









6 R E S U L T S ...............................................................................................................................6 6

Separability M odel .....................................................66
Prom optional M odels.................. .. ............... ........ ............. 68
R e ta ile r X .........................................................................................................................6 8
R retailer Z ......... .. ............................................................................7 2

7 CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS ........................................ ........................ 91

APPENDIX

A SEPARABILITY MODEL PARAMETER ESTIMATES .......................................... 94

B RETAILER X PARAMETER ESTIMATES AND PROMOTIONAL ELASTICITIES..... 99

C RETAILER Z PARAMETER ESTIMATES AND PROMOTIONAL ELASTICITIES ...126

LIST OF REFERENCES ............... ............ ................... ... ........................ 149

B IO G R A PH IC A L SK ETCH .............. ................. ........... ................................. ................... .... 156


































6









LIST OF TABLES


Table page

1-1 United State juice market value: $ billion, 2001-2005 ...................................................13

1-2 United States liquid refreshment beverage market .......................................................15

1-3 T op variety of bottled juices ................................................................ .. ......................17

1-4 Total gallons of beverages purchased in U.S. grocery outlets earning more than $2
million in sales (in thousands of gallons) ............. ................................... ................20

1-5 Percent of beverages purchased on a deal at grocery outlets earning more than $2
m million in sales ..................................... .......................... ..... ..... ......... 20

4-1 Separability m odel descriptive statistics................................ ......................... ........ 49

4-2 R etailer X descriptive statistics............................................... .............................. 52

4-3 Retailer X promotional activities sample statistics (in % ACV) ....................................53

4-4 R retailer Z sam ple statistics ........................................................................ .................. 56

4-6 Retailer Z sample statistics for promotional activities (in % ACV)................................57

5-1 Separability m odel codes ............................................................. ............... 61

5-2 R retailer X variable description ................................................ .............................. 64

5-3 R retailer Z codes ................................................................6 5

6-2 Separability results........... ........................ .. ... ..... ..... ......... 67

6-2 R etailer X Expenditure Elasticities........................................................................ ...... 69

6-3 Retailer Z Expenditure Elasticities .............................................................................. 74

6-4 Orange juice own and cross category compensated price elasticities for Retailer X ........77

6-5 Fruit juice own and cross category compensated price elasticities for Retailer X ...........79

6-6 Fruit drink own and cross category compensated price elasticities for Retailer X............81

6-7 Orange juice own and cross category compensated price elasticities for Retailer Z........84

6-8 Fruit juice own and cross category compensated price elasticities for Retailer Z.............86

6-9 Fruit drink own and cross category compensated price elasticities for Retailer Z ............89









A-1 M arginal propensity to consume estimates ............................ .................................... 94

A-2 Separability model Slutsky coefficients...................... .... ............................ 95

B -l M arginal Expenditure Shares.................................................. ............................... 99

B-2 Param eter Estim ates ..................................................... ........... .......... 100

B-3 Orange juice display elasticities with respect to other beverages.................................. 103

B-4 Fruit Juice display elasticities with respect to other beverages ......................................105

B-5 Fruit Drink display elasticities with respect to other beverages .............. ...............108

B-6 Orange juice feature elasticities with respect to other beverages ............... ............... 111

B-7 Fruit Juice feature elasticities with respect to other beverages....................................113

B-8 Fruit drink feature elasticities with respect to other beverages.............. ... ...............116

B-9 Orange juice feature and display elasticities with respect to other beverages ...............19

B-10 Fruit juice feature and display elasticities with respect to other beverages.....................121

B-11 Fruit drinks feature and display elasticities with respect to other beverages................. 123

C-l M arginal propensity to consume estimates................................................................... 126

C-2 Promotional and Slutsky coefficients for Retailer Z................................ .................. 127

C-3 Orange juice display elasticities with respect to other beverages..................................130

C-4 Fruit juice display elasticities with respect to other beverages................................... 132

C-5 Fruit drink display elasticities with respect to other beverages ........... ............. 134

C-6 Orange juice feature elasticities with respect to other beverages .................................. 136

C-7 Fruit juice feature elasticities with respect to other beverages ................................... 138

C-8 Fruit drink feature elasticities with respect to other beverages.............. ... ...............141

C-9 Orange juice feature and display elasticities with respect to other beverages.................143

C-10 Fruit juice feature and display elasticities with respect to other beverages................. 145

C-11 Fruit drink feature and display elasticities with respect to other beverages ....................147









LIST OF FIGURES


Figure page

1-1 ACNielsen homescan data beverage categories ..................................... .................12

1-2 United States juice market segment by % share, by volume 2005 ...................................14

1-3 United States juices market segment by % share, by volume 200....................................14

1-4 Changes in consumer's beverage expenditures from 2004 to 2005 ..............................16

1-5 Per capital consumption for selected fruit juices ...........................................................17

1-6 Orange juice per capital consum ption....................................................... .............. 18

4-1 Separability model expenditure share, by brands ................................... .................48

4-2 R etailer X expenditure share by brands ..................................................................... .. 51

4-3 Retailer Z expenditure share by brands ........................................ ........................ 55









Abstract of Dissertation Presented to the Graduate School
of the University of Florida in Partial Fulfillment of the
Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy


IMPACT OF PROMOTION TACTICS ON CONSUMERS'
DEMAND FOR FRUIT JUICES

By

Erika Knight

August 2008

Chair: Lisa House
Major: Food and Resource Economics

The high level of beverage assortment in supermarkets has dramatically changed beverage

consumption patterns and trends throughout the United States. With more firms contending for

consumers' dollars, companies utilize price and non-price promotional strategies to increase

market share of their brands. The primary objective of this study is to understand the

interrelationship between brands of orange juice and brands of other juice beverages. To

accomplish this goal it is imperative to understand how consumers allocate total beverage

expenditures by empirically testing block-wise separability among orange juice, fruit juices, and

fruit drinks. Secondly, this study analyzes the impact of retail promotions on the demand for

beverages in the previously mentioned categories using AC Nielsen scanner data for major retail

outlets earning more than $2 million in sales.

Results from the absolute price version of the Rotterdam indicate that consumers do not

perceive orange juice, fruit juices, and fruit drinks as separable categories. Findings also suggest

that displays combined with feature advertisement had the largest impact on demand. Display

only and feature only were also significant and had a positive impact on marginal utility. The

majority of the beverage brands included in this study were deal inelastic.









CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION

This chapter introduces the research problem for the United States beverage market. The

background, the researchable problem, and study objectives are provided followed by the

organization of the dissertation.

Background

The nonalcoholic beverage market is highly competitive, as evidence by numerous new

products introduced on an annual basis. In 2004 the nonalcoholic beverage market was

estimated to be worth $79 billion; however, this market has experienced minimal real growth in

recent years. This stagnation is partly attributed to the segments of the markets such as

carbonated soft drinks, fruit juices, and milk, which are mature markets (Nonalcoholic Beverages

2004). Within the beverage industry, orange juice is the most popular juice, but orange crop

shortages in recent years have led to increased juice prices making substitutable products more

attractive. With more brands competing for consumers' dollars, retailers and brand

manufacturers implement various promotional strategies with the intention of increasing sales

and altering consumption patterns.

As consumer encounter more variety in their beverage choices, retailers and juice

manufacturers experience intense pressure from competitors. For example, ready to drink (RTD)

fruit drinks, sports drinks, energy drinks, and teas are categories within the nonalcoholic

beverage industry battling for a percentage of consumers' beverage expenditures (Figure 1-1).

Thus, is important for brand managers, retailers, and other industry officials to understand

demand interrelationships among the various beverages.



































Figure 1-1. ACNielsen homescan data beverage categories Source: Capps, Clauson, Guthrie, Pittman, and Stockton 2005









The United States juice market is a part of the nonalcoholic beverage industry and consists

of 100% fruit juice (from concentrate), 100% fruit juice (not from concentrate), nectar (30 to

99% juice), fruit drinks (0 to 29 % juice) and vegetable juice. This sector posted slow but steady

growth rates throughout 2001-2007 with consumption increasing at constant annual growth rate

of 1 % between 2001 through 2005. Revenue for the juice market grew by 1.8% in 2005

reaching a value of $19.4 billion (Figure 1-2). In 2005, 100% fruit juice (from concentrate)

represented the largest segment in the juice market accounting for 26.3% of the market's overall

volume. Sales of fruit drinks were a close second, accounting for 26% of the market's total

volume (Datamonitor 2006). However by 2006, fruit drinks were the most lucrative segment in

the juice market, generating 34.5% of the market's revenue (Datamonitor 2007). Meager growth

in overall volume suggests that consumers are switching from one beverage to another igniting

intense competition between brands.

Table 1-1. United State juice market value: $ billion, 2001-2005
Market %
Value
V l (Growth
Year (in $ billions)
2001 18.1
2002 18.2 0.90
2003 18.7 2.70
2004 19.1 1.70
2005 19.4 1.80
Constant Average Growth Rate, 2001-
2005 1.8%
(Source: Datamonitor, 2006)











Vegetable
Juice
13' o


Figure 1-2. United States juice market segment by % share, by volume 2005
Source: Datamonitor, 2006




Vegetable
Juice
1 370 Nectar


1 0 L) o [Fruit

( FC)'
210o









Figure 1-3. United States juices market segment by % share, by volume 2007
Source: Datamonitor, 2007









As the number of types of beverages in supermarkets increased, U.S beverage

consumption patterns and trends have changed. While overall market growth has been minimal,

some beverage segments within the market have experienced dramatic growth. According to the

Beverage Marketing Corporation, consumption (in gallons) of carbonated soft drinks (CSDs) and

fruit beverages declined during 2004 through 2006; whereas, consumption of energy drinks,

sport drinks, and RTD coffee and teas has substantially increased (Table 1-2). Similarly,

changes in beverages sales from 2004 to 2005 (Figure 1-4) indicate energy and sport drinks

experienced significant increases (65.9 % and 20.6 % respectively). Refrigerated juice sales

increased a mere 2.2 %, shelved non-fruit drinks decreased 0.9 %, bottled juices and cocktails

both decreased 1.5 % and frozen juice sales decreased by 12.8 % (Food Industry Review, 2006).

Table 1-2. United States liquid refreshment beverage market
Millions of Gallons % Change
Segments
2004 2005 2006 04/05 05/06
CSDs 15,367.2 15,271.6 15,103.3 -0.6 -1.1
Bottled Water 6,806.7 75,37.1 8,253.1 10.7 9.5
Fruit Beverages 4,187.3 4,119.0 4,020.1 -1.6 -2.4
Sports Drinks 1,000.8 1,207.5 1,348.8 20.7 11.7
RTD Tea 509.9 555.9 701.5 9.0 26.2
Energy Drinks 84.5 152.5 227.4 80.5 49.1
RTD Coffee 31.7 38.9 43.0 23.0 10.4
Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation











65.0%

55.0% -- Frozen Juices
45.0% _] Canned Juices
M Bottled Juices
35.0% Non-Fruit (SS)
25.0% -- RFG Juices & Drinks

15.0% W RFG Teas/Coffee
W Sports Drinks
5 Energy Drinks
-5.0%
Source: Food Industry Review 2005.
-15.0%
Figure 1-4. Changes in consumer's beverage expenditures from 2004 to 2005

In addition to changes in expenditure, per capital availability of orange juice and other

selected fruit juice have changed over time (Table 1-3, Figure 1-5 and Figure 1-6). Consumption

trends for citrus fruit juices and fruit drinks, ades and cocktails have been steadily declining. The

decrease in consumption can be partly explained by the increased in popularity of low-

carbohydrate diets such as the Atkins diet which encouraged dieters to reduce or completely

eliminate their fruit juice intake (Cogrove 2005; Love 2005). The decline in orange juice

consumption observed from 2004 to the present can also be explained by additional events. In

2004, the citrus industry experienced immense damage from one of the harshest hurricanes

seasons in history when hurricanes Charley, Francis and Jeanne rampaged through the Florida

peninsula, the primary provider of orange juice within the United States. In addition to the

hurricanes, citrus canker, a disease that dramatically decreases the productivity of citrus trees,

poses a major threat and damages to current and future orange crops (Zansler 2004). As a result

of the smaller orange crops, brands such as PepsiCo's Tropicana increased wholesale orange

prices 3 to 5 % (Beverage Industry 2004). The Florida Department of Citrus announced plans to










spend $3 million to promote orange juice in an effort to improve consumption which had

declined 1.6 % annually since 2001.

Table 1-3. Top variety of bottled juices


Variety
Apple Juice
Cranberry Cocktail Juice/Drinks
Cranberry Juice/Juice Blends
Fruit Drinks
Fruit Juice Blends
Grape Juice
Grapefruit Juice
Lemonade
Orange Juice
Tomato/Vegetable Juice/Cocktails
Source: Cosgrove 2005


Dollar Sales
$ 542,221,100
$ 618,726,600
$ 155,709,900
$ 722,495,400
$ 235,680,200
$ 225,680,200
$ 52,241,200
$ 146,340,100
$ 29,041,880
$ 290,271,700


% Change From
Prior Year
-0.4
-2.5
-8.2
1.7
0.6
-7.3
12.4
20.2
-31.5
-1.3


mmaasmmmtEE


- Citrus Fruit Juices

--Non-Citrus Fruit Juices

FFruit Drinks, Ades,
cocktails
4+Vegetable Juices


W N r-0 Mn W) r- 0 en W
00000 0 0C 0) 0) 0) C 000

Figure 1-5. Per capital consumption for selected fruit juices
Figure 1-5. Per capital consumption for selected fruit juices


16.0

14.0


. 12.0

10.0

8.0

- 6.0

4.0










5.5
O
5.0

4.5

4.0


/-h?


M Z W D r 0 0 C N M 0 W)
M I" W I' 0"0 IC I N I Z
l t 0"0 C ~ Cl 0


Figure 1-6. Orange juice per capital consumption
Generic and brand promotions are utilized develop or expand the market for many
agricultural commodities and alter consumption patterns (Lee, Fairchild, and Behr 1988). The
fundamental objective of each promotional program is the same, but the methods of
implementation and funding of each program differs. Generic promotional programs are
promoted by producers and the aim of these programs is to increase consumption of a specific
commodity or food product. Generic advertising is designed to encourage consumers to
experiment with a particular product category and remind consumers to become repeat
purchasers. Marketing firms utilize brand advertising to expand sales or increase market share
for a particular brand of commodity or food product. This form of promotion is used to persuade
consumer to select a particular brand within a certain product category and to influence the
consumers' preferences for certain commodity attributes. Brand advertising is also intended to
redirect the consumers' attention to a particular brand with the purpose of making the consumer
a repeat buyer. The precipitation and reminder mechanisms are more inclined to increase total


-+-Orange Juice









product or industry sales while persuasion and reinforcement are related to maintaining or

increasing market shares of specific brand (Lee, Fairchild, and Behr 1988).

With more brands contending for consumers' dollars, retailers utilize price and non-price

promotional strategies to stimulate short-term sales and revenue and to increase store traffic

(Inman and Leigh 1993; Blattberg, Briesch and Fox 1995; Kumar and Leone 1988). Temporary

price reductions (TPR), feature advertising, and displays are common tactics used is the grocery

business to direct consumers' attention to a specific brand or product line. In this study, a

temporary price reduction occurs when the product is sold from its normal shelf location at price

discount greater than 5 % of regular price that cannot that last longer than six weeks. Feature

advertising is regarded as any published print advertisement such as newspaper advertisements,

neighborhood mailers, and in-store circular media. Grocery retailers believe that feature

advertising is a cost effective method of informing consumers' of in-store specials offered in an

effort to increase the store's profitability. Displays are secondary locations away from the

normal shelf stocking location increasing the products visibility.

Over 14 billion gallons of beverages were purchased in U.S. grocery outlets in 2002. This

amount decreased to approximately 9 billion in 2009 (Table 1-4). This downward trend was also

observed for fruit drink, fruit juices, and orange juice. Consumers were inclined to purchase

beverages when they perceived the products' price was on a deal (Table 1-5). For example, in

2004 nearly 57 % of all orange juice was purchased when the buyer felt that the purchase price

was a deal, but this % declined to 45 % in 2006.









Table 1-4. Total gallons of beverages purchased in U.S. grocery outlets earning more than $2
million in sales (in thousands of gallons)
Segment 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Total Beverages 14,185,696 14,968,874 14,644,435 9,232,827 9,253,420
Fruit Drinks 1,108,705 1,178,166 1,191,552 754,520 749,151
Fruit Juices 430,939 452,406 442,385 283,074 722,661
Orange Juice 759,141 770,374 729,003 491,806 442,206
Isotonics 148,913 104,285 97,227 65,224 67,580
Sunny Delight 88,753 91,484 81,172 43,796 N/A
Source: Florida Department of Citrus 2007

Table 1-5. Percent of beverages purchased on a deal at grocery outlets earning more than $2
million in sales
Segment 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Total Beverages 47.4% 49.6% 47.2% 43.3% 38.4%
Fruit Drinks 51.6% 54.1% 53.1% 49.3% 42.2%
Fruit Juices 53.2% 55.1% 53.5% 49.3% 41.6%
Orange Juice 56.2% 58.6% 57.1% 50.7% 45.0%
Isotonics 53.9% 53.5% 53.5% 52.0% 45.8%
Source: Florida Department of Citrus 2007


Researchable Problem

Due to the changes in consumption the beverage industry has undergone many

transformations. All other things being equal, consumer theory states that a shift in demand for

one good will be compensated by shifts in the opposite direction in the demand for other good.

Brand manufacturers and retailers must continue to monitor the ever-changing beverage retailing

landscape to ensure profitability. Thus, in an effort to better understand how consumers make

beverage purchase decisions, this study examines the competitiveness and structure of the

beverage industry. To accomplish this goal separability tests are conducted among refrigerated

orange juice, refrigerated fruit juices, and shelf stable fruit drinks. This study contributes to the

existing body of literature by providing information on consumers' behavior regarding beverage

purchases, the structure of the beverage industry and implications for the industry in the future.









Objectives

In an effort to better understand consumer behavior regarding juice purchase patterns, the

primary objective of this research is to evaluate the impact of three retail promotion strategies

(feature advertisements without displays, display advertisement without feature ads, and a

combination of feature ads and displays) on consumers' demand for orange and grapefruit juice

along with other fruit drinks. Specific objectives are:

* To develop econometric models for analyzing demand relationships between brands in the
previously mentioned juice categories using store level scanner data.

* To examine the degree of separability between refrigerated and shelved juice/ drink products.

* To estimate own price, cross price and promotional elasticities for specified brands in each
beverage category.

* To compare and contrast the impact of promotion across stores adopting different pricing
philosophies.

* To discuss the marketing implications associated with the empirical results.

Outline

The dissertation is organized as follows: Chapter 2 consist of a literature review of the

impact of promotions on demand and retail sales. The chapter contains a review literature where

beverage demand and structure of the beverage industry is analyzed.

In chapter 3, consumer demand theory is developed and different versions of the

Rotterdam model used to empirically test for separability and evaluate the impact of promotional

tactics on demand are derived. Chapter 4 contains a discussion of the data sources and key

descriptive statistics. Chapter 5 and 6 include the system of equations that are empirically

applied to data and results from the empirical models. Finally, chapter 7 includes the conclusion

and marketing implications.









CHAPTER 2
LITERATURE REVIEW

Manufacturers and retailers spend billions of dollars each year on promotion, but entity

uses promotions for different reasons. When promoting brands, the objectives of manufacturers

include the following: (1) increasing consumption by current users, (2) motivate brand

substitution, and (3) motivate category substitution. The retailers' primary objective is to

maximize store profits, which can be achieved by maximizing profits for each product category.

It is imperative for both manufacturers and retailers to evaluate the effectiveness and financial

impact of promotional tactics. Chain-brand models allow retailers to calculate the incremental

sales from a given promotion allowing them to compute the profitability of the promotional

program. Manufacturers desire these models because the information provided from running

them enables the manufacturers to persuade the chain to promote their brand. This chapter

reviews the existing body of literature that evaluates the impact of retail promotion on consumer

demand and retailer and literature that explains the structure of the beverage industry.

Several studies in the marketing literature have evaluated the impact of retail promotions

on retail sales and brand choice using household panel and scanner data (Prasad and Ring 1976;

Cotton and Babb 1978; Guadangi and Little 1983; Walters 1991; Dekimpe, Hanssens, and Silva-

Risso 1999; Bell, Chaing, and Padmanabhan 1999; Van Heerde, Leeflang, Wittink 2000; Kumar,

Rajiv and Jeuland 2001; Pauwels, Hanssens, and Siddarth 2002). Price reductions, feature

advertisements, and in-store displays are types of retail promotions that have the ability to

increase current period sales, but also alter consumer purchasing habits by changing consumers'

perceptions of the promoted good (Gao and Lee 1995). Scanner data has made it possible to

analyze the impacts of retail promotions on consumer behavior. Studies suggest that price

reductions and displays are more powerful in increasing short term sales when compared to









newspaper advertisements. Additionally, when prior purchases were made on display and

feature promotions or when price reductions were paired with displays or features following

purchases increased (Wilkinson, Mason, and Paksoy 1982; Papatla and Krishnanmurthi 1996).

Blattberg, Briesch and Fox (1995) surveyed the promotional literature to develop

generalizations, which are based on consistent findings among mutliple studies. One significant

conclusion is that high market share brands are less deal elastic (Bolton 1989; Vilcassim and

Chintaguanta 1995). Moriarty (1985) and Woodside and Waddle (1975) found sales were very

responsive to temporary price reductions. However, these studies also suggest that it is difficult

to isoloate the influence other promotional tactics have on sales. Gupta (1988) and van Heerde,

Leeflang and Wittink (2004) decomposed the sales spike to find that the majority of sales

increases were attributed to brand substitution within a store, purchase time acceleration, and the

stockpiling effect was minor. These results conflict with Vilcassim and Chintaguanta (1995)

whom suggests switching does not account for the majority of the volume. Similarly, Kumar and

Leone (1988) found that increases in sales can be attributed to two factors, brand substitution

within a store and cross-shopping caused by price promotions and feature and display

advertisements. This study also develops two propositions. The first proposition states a store's

price promotion, featuring, and display activities for a specific brand positively affect that store's

sales of the brand and negatively affect sales of the brand's competitors within the store. The

second proposition states that for a given product category, if two stores within a geographic area

are competitors, one store's price promotion, featuring, and display activities for a specific brand

negatively affect the sales of that brand and competing brands at the other store.

Literature also suggests that price cuts and feature ads encourage consumers to cross-shop

amongst stores which positively impact sales, however, research has conflicted on the impact









promotions have on the % change in sales and the duration of the promotional effect. Moriarty

(1985) suggests that promotions cause sales displacement and reductions in both current and

future demand for competitor products (substitution effects). The study found sales of a

promoted product will increase and future sales will decrease as a result of current promotional

activity. Purchase acceleration is higher as the package size of the product becomes larger.

Consumer are less likely to stockpile smaller size product because these products are viewed as

convenience products. Additionally, purchase acceleration is more likely to happen for feature

and display merchandising rather than price reductions (Abraham and Lodish 1993). Shoaf

(1997) also found a decline in the repurchase rate at a promotion, suggesting stockpiling.

Trotten and Block (1987) and McAlister (1986) report no evidence of stockpiling. A study

conducted by Walters and MacKenzie (1988) found that store traffic, sales and profit did not

exhibit significant increases in response to promotions. Dekimpe, Hanssens, and Ailva-Risso

(1999) estimated the permanent effects of promotions and found that this effect did not exist.

From these findings one can conclude that the impact of promotions on sales is usually confined

to the period that the promotion occurs.

As the retailing environment becomes more competitive, retailers invest more resources in

developing strategies to maximize store profits. Existing research provides micromarketing

strategies that will assist retailers in developing optimal promotional strategies. Hoch et al

(1995) suggest that stores isolated from competitors are less deal sensitive. Kumar, Rajiv, and

Jeuland (2004) found that retailers prefer to offer promotions on products for which switching

customers have stronger demand than loyal customers and/or for which the price sensitivity of

demand is high for both switching and loyal customers. Simester (1995) found that in order to

receive maximum economic rents, firms should offer deeper promotions on products which









enjoy complementary relationships with other products sold by the firm rather than on products

for which the firm sells a substitute. Promotions are found to encourage store profits because

customers are exposed to low margin promoted products and full margin nonpromoted products.

Researchers have analyzed the impact of retail purchase on the demand for beverages

but the majority of existing research concerning juice beverages focuses on the impact of generic

advertising on commodity demand while few studies investigate the impact of brand advertising

on demand (Lee 1981; Gao and Lee 1995; Zheng and Henry 2004; Lee, Fairchild and Behr,

1988). The objectives of generic promotions differ drastically from the nature of brand

promotions (Brester and Schroeder 1995). Generic promotions are designed to increase overall

demand for a specific group of commodities and brand promotion are expected to increase the

salse of a specific brand. Lee, Fairchild and Behr (1988) found that brand advertising did not

have a substantial impact on sales of orange juice and that brand advertising is associated with

maintaining or increasing marketshares, while declines in commodity advertising (generic)

resulted in a reduction in orange juice consumption. Another study conducted by Brown and Lee

(1997) found brand promotions changed only the brands perceived price. Brand promotional

cross price elasticities were smaller than generic promotion elasticities. In fact, several brand

elasticities were close to zero. Brown and Lee (2007) used a differential approach to estimate the

impact of four promotional tactics on the demand for 12 beverages and found cross promotional

effects tended to offset own promotional effects which were all positive. The intercepts for

orange juice, grapefruit juice, apple juice, milk, and grape juice were negative, suggesting

demand for these beverages has declined over time. Remaining juice, tea, and water possessed

positive coefficients, signifying growth in demand. The study also suggests that if retailers









promoted only one brand at a time the demand for juice drinks would increase 23% and orange

and grapefriut juice demands would increase 15.3 % and 25 %, respectively.

Nelson and Morgan (1995), Zhen and Kinnucan (2004), and Zhen, Kinnucan, and Kaiser

(2007) evaluate the impact of generic advertising on demand curves for nonahcolic beverages.

Results from theses studies indicate that advertising influences own price elasticities through a

combinations of outward shifts and rotation. Advertising shifts and rotate demand curves by

changing the price people are willing to pay for a product. The overall impact of promotions on

goods belonging to different categories depends on the nature of the underlying preference

structure.

Numerous studies have examined the orange juice industry to identify competitors, but

studies have not tested for separability within the fruit juice market. Brown, Lee, and Seale

(1994) tested for strong separability between fresh fruits, fruit juices, and tomato juices and

failed to reject the hypothesis of strong separability. Suggesting that the marginal utility of fruit

juices is not affected by an increase marginal expenditures of fresh fruit or tomato juice. Brown

and Lee (2000, 2007), Brown, Lee and Seale (1992,1994), and Lee, Jong-Ying (1984)

successfully identified juice beverage that are substitutes for orange juice, but the studies do not

consider the impact of sport drinks on this demand. Several studies have tested for separability

within the meat market (Nayga and Capps 1994; Eales and Unnevehr 1988; Hayes, Wahl and

Williams 1990), however, a this type of disaggregate model has not been used to evaluate the

manner in which consumers allocate their beverage expenditure. This study will contribute to

the existing body of literature by providing information on consumers' behavior towards their

beverage purchases and the structure of this beverage industry, which is the second largest

component of the food and beverage manufacturing industry (ERS, 2005).









CHAPTER 3
THEORETICAL MODEL

Consumer Demand Theory

Consumer demand theory is used to investigate demand interrelationship between

different beverage categories and brands of beverages. Consumption theory enables economists

to analyze the market structure of the beverage industry; specifically the fruit juice and fruit

drink markets, by using the concept of separability. This theory involves the analysis of the

change in marginal utilities of one product due to a change in consumption of a closely related

product. The changes in marginal utilities are related to the price substitution terms of demand

functions.

Consumer Demand Analysis

Consumer behavior models are used to analyze decisions made by both individuals and

households. Economists assume that given a budget and information pertaining to the prices of

commodities, consumers exhibit optimizing behavior when making choices constrained by

psychological factors (i.e. preferences). Consumers are expected to behave rationally, which is a

result of having a well-defined preference set. Preference sets must fulfill the following axioms:

reflexivity, completeness, transitivity, continuity, convexity and non-satiation. Reflexivity,

completeness, and transitivity define preordering of the preference set. When numeric values

are assigned to the bundles of goods and services, preference ordering can be represented by a

utility function. Bundles given higher values or perceived to provide higher utility are preferred

to those with lower values or lower utility. All of the previously mentioned axioms allow

economists to transition from preferences to utility and address the constrained utility

maximization problem.










The theoretical framework for utility maximization problem is well documented by Deaton

and Muellbauer (1980), Theil (1980), and Phlips (1983). A utility function, U(xl, x2, ..., xn), is a

mapping of the consumer's preferences regarding a bundle of goods or services at a particular

point in time. It measures the overall satisfaction an individual receives from consuming a

specific bundle. It is more convenient to discuss utility function rather than preferences sets;

however, utility functions possess three primary shortcomings. Utility functions are inestimable,

unobservable, and ordinal. Because of the ordinal nature, utility functions are only defined as

monotonically increasing. Despite these disadvantages, a utility function is extremely useful

when paired with a linear budget constraint, as it provides, enough information to evaluate the

consumer allocation problem.

The constrained utility maximization problem assumes that given a fixed amount of

income to spend, an individual will buy those quantities that exhaust total income. Promotional

variables are incorporated directly into the utility function as an indicator of consumer preferences

(Theil 1980; Duffy 1987; Brown and Lee 2002,2007). Therefore the utility maximization

problem is as follows:

(3.1) Maxu = f(x,...,,z,..., z)

n
S.t. p, x, im
1=1

where x, denotes the quantity of the ith good demanded, z represents the promotion variables, p,

denotes the price of the ith good and m represents dollars allocated or total expenditure on n-

goods. Four steps are necessary to solve the constrained utility maximization problem. First, the

Lagrangian function is formulated:

n
(3.2) L = u(x1,...,x,,z1,....,z,,) +A(m px,)
1=1









where h is the Lagrangian multiplier, the marginal utility of money. The value of the Lagrangian

multiplier is positive and represents the amount the utility maximum would increase given a unit

relaxation in the constraint (a unit increase in total expenditure).

The second step of solving the constraint utility maximization problem is to differentiate

L with respect to x, and X and then set each equation equal to zero yielding:

Ou (X, Z)
(3.3 a) aux,z)
9,


(3.3 b) pg x =m.
1=1

These n+1 equations are known as the first order conditions and represent the necessary

conditions for an interior maximum. The first order conditions require the marginal utility of the

ith good to equal the price of good i times the marginal utility of money. Thus at the margin, the

amount of utility given up equals the amount of utility gained in exchange for money.

The next step is to solve the first order conditions of the utility maximization problem for

the optimal Marshallian demand functions. The demand functions describe the quantity of a

commodity a consumer is able and willing to purchase when constrained by a budget and prices

of all commodities and a defined set of preferences. The optimal solutions are:

(3.4 a) x, = g(p,z,m) i=1, 2,...,n and

(3.4 b) A= (p,z,m).

The Marshallian, uncompensated, demand functions (x ) describe the behavior of the consumer

in the market. The solution to the system produces n equilibrium demand value, xi, ...,xn. These

demand functions are unique to a specific set of prices, income and preferences; thus, changes in

parameters or taste and preferences will cause the demand system to adjust, producing new

optimal values.









Marshallian demand functions are also called uncompensated demand functions because

income is fixed and utility changes between curves, not along curves. When prices change there

is no income compensation to keep an individual at the same level of utility. A price decrease

allows an individual or household to attain a higher utility level because real income has

increased, but since the function are uncompensated the price and income effects are combined.

The Marshallian demand functions are specified as:

(3.5) x, = g, (p ,..., p z,,...Zk, m) i = 1, 2,. n.

where x, represents the quantity of a good consumed. Quantity demanded is a function of all the

independent variables including prices of the ith good, pi, ., pn, promotional variables, z,...,zk,

and the consumer's or household's income or total expenditure on goods, m. In summary,

demand functions relate the equilibrium quantities demanded to the market price of that

commodity and the nominal prices of other commodities held constant. To verify that the

Marshallian demand functions derived are indeed the optimal quantities, the final step is to

derive the second order conditions which ensure optimality.

To analyze the effect of prices, income, and promotions variable on consumer demand, to

the first order condition presented in (3.3) is differentiated and arranged in terms to obtain the

fundamental matrix equations of consumer demand theory (Barten 1977; Brown and Lee 1997):

(3.6a) Udx pdA = dp Vdz

(3.6b) pdx = dm xdp

or

V__-dm
(U p1 dx 0 AI -V dm
(3.6c) p' 0 dA 1 x' 0 p
dz










where U =Kqt 2 a nxn Hessian matrix; and V = a nxn matrix indicating the
8q,8qj f zk)

impact of promotional effects on marginal utilities; x and p are n vectors representing the

quantity of goods demanded ; and z is a k vector of promotional tactics. Equation 3.6 must be

solved for dx and dA to generate the effects of the exogenous variables quantity demanded.

Barten (1977) shows the effect of promotions on demand can be written as

(x 3.8x +x 1>
(3.7a) --+-x a I-V
8z' ap' am A

or


(3.7b) =-S\\


where S = + x is the Slutsky substitution matrix. This result implies that the effect of
ap' 8m )

promotions is related to the substitution effect of price changes.

An alternative approach for solving the consumer allocation problem is to use the indirect

utility function to obtain the Marshallian demand functions. The indirect utility function

expresses utility as a function of prices, promotional variables, and income. Quantities that a

consumer selects depend on the prices faced and income, which is identical to the utility

maximization problem. The indirect utility function is defined as follows:

(3.8) U* = v[(g,(p,..., p ,z,m),..., g (p,..., p ,z,m)]= /* (p,..., p ,z,m) .

This function is called indirect because it expresses the consumer's utility as a function of prices

and income rather than quantity. The indirect utility function is computed from its original utility

function by deriving the optimal utility maximizing quantities demanded and then substituting

these quantities into the utility function which produces the highest level of utility attainable









given preferences, prices and income. Since the utility function assumes utility is maximized,

Roy's identity is applied to find the optimal Marshallian demand functions. Roy's identity

states:

a f(p, m, z))

(3.9) g, (p,m,z)= (p, .



The concept of elasticity is useful to summarize information pertaining to the demand

function. Elasticity measures the responsiveness of the quantity demanded (in percentage terms)

to percentage changes in price or income. The most frequently used elasticities of demand are

own-price, cross-price, and income elasticities. For a given demand function, x, = g, (p, z, m),

the following elasticities are defined as:


(3.10) a,, = P own-price elasticity
ap, x)


(3.11) sE = i cross-price elasticity



(3.12) r7, = income elasticity



(3.13) p, = 'promotional elasticity.


Own-price elasticity measures the effect a change in the price of good i, p,, has on the

demand for the ith good, x,. Responsiveness of demand to price changes is described in three

ways: elastic, where changes in price significantly affect quantity (e,, < -1); inelastic, where

changes in price do not significantly impact demand (e,, > -1); and unit elasticity, where quantity









demand changes at the same percentage as the change in price (E,, = -1). For example, a value of

E,, =-2 implies that a one % increase in prices causes quantity demanded to decrease by two %.

Cross-price elasticity describes the relationship between the quantity of good i demanded given

changes in the price of another good,j; making it possible to identify substitutes or complements.


The ith andjth goods are gross substitutes if > 0, which implies is positive. The



converse is true for goods that are gross complements c < 0, which implies that is


negative. Another important concept of elasticity measures the relationship between income

changes and price changes. By definition, the quantity of a normal good demanded will increase

( x _
as income increases; thus, 7, > which implies that > 0. Normal goods can be classified
Qm)

into two categories: necessities and luxury goods. Necessities are those by which 7, < 1 and

luxury goods possess a value of q, > 1. A good is considered inferior if the quantity demanded


decreases as income increases, suggesting 7, < 0 and ) < 0. Promotional elasticities play a
9m

critical role in determining the type of promotional activity a retailer implements. Promotional

elasticities measure the change in quantity demanded relative to the change in promotional

activity (East 1990; Brown and Lee 2007; Narasimhan, Nelsin, and Sen 1996). Goods that have

exceptionally low price elasticity and a high price promotional elasticity will cause a firm to lose

money when temporary price discounts are implemented. For n goods there, are n +n elasticities

to be estimated; n2 price elasticities, and n income elasticities. However, the actual number of









elasticities estimated is reduced by imposing restrictions from the optimization problem and the

properties of the utility function.

Restrictions imposed on Marshallian demands are derived from properties associated with

the utility maximization and a linear budget constraint. Economists assume that demand

functions are continuous and differentiable and they must also satisfy the following properties:

Property 1: Homogeneity. All demand functions are homogeneous of degree zero in prices and

income which implies that proportional changes in all prices and income leave the budget set

unchanged; thus, demand and utility function are unaffected. This property is also known as

"absence of money illusion". Consumer experience money illusion if increases in income cause

an increase in purchases regardless of the prices of the goods. Since consumers do not suffer

from money illusion, decisions are made on the basis of relative prices and income.

Homogeneous of degree zero implies:

(3.14) x, = g, (kp,km, z) = g,(p,m,z)

where k is any positive scalar. One can also illustrate the homogeneity restriction on demand

functions using the Euler theorem:


(3.15) Ei +)i, = 0.
j=1

Using Euler's theorem in (3.15), adding up suggests that changes in quantity demand induced by

changes in prices must equal changes in the demand induced by income. As a result, quantities

demanded are unaffected by equivalent changes in prices and income.

Property 2: EngelAggregation. In order for consumers' to maximize utility, the budget

constraint must be binding. Engel aggregation states that changes in income are allocated

completely across all commodities. For example, a five percent increase in income requires total

purchases to also increase by five percent.









This concept is illustrated by differentiating the budget constraint presented in (3.1) with respect

to m:


(3 .16) =1.


Budget exhaustion can also be expressed in income elasticity form:


(3.17) wi, =1
1=1


where w, = p which is known as the expenditure share on the ith commodity. Equation (3.17)
m

suggests the weighted sum of income elasticities for all goods must equal one. Thus, only n -1

of the income elasticities are independent. Promotional variables must also fulfill the adding up

property; thus, an increase in demand for one good must be compensated by a decrease in

demand for the other good, while total expenditure remains constant,


(3.18) p, =az 0


or in elasticity terms

(3.19) w, IP =0

which states the weighted sum of advertising elasticities is zero (Brown and Lee 2002).

Property 3: Cournot Aggregation. The final property indicates that expenditure share on thejth

good influences the magnitude of elasticities for the ith good. This property is derived by

differentiating the linear budget constraint with respect top,, resulting in,


(3.20) w = -w


This equation is useful when elasticity information for a limited number of goods is available

and one seeks to know elasticities of others that are unavailable.









Duality theory provides different techniques economists can use to derive optimizing

values. Any constrained maximization problem is associated with the dual problem, constrained

minimization, which focuses on the constraint in the primal problem. Duality theory has become

popular and is used in many branches of economics. This theory is valuable because it provides

the economist with a simple and alternative method of analysis.

As discussed previously, the primal involves solving the utility maximization problem and

solving for the equilibrium Marshallian demand functions. The dual problem generates optimal

quantities that minimize the expenditure needed to achieve the optimal utility level derived in the

primal problem. The constrained expenditure minimization problem is written as:


(3.21) MinE = p x
1=1

s.t. U = f(x,,...,x,,z).

In the dual problem, the quantity demanded is a function of utility, prices, and promotional

strategies which are denoted as u, p, and z, respectively. These demand functions differ from the

Marshallian demands derived in the primal problem which are a function of income, prices, and

promotional strategies. These new cost-minimizing demand functions are derived by solving the

first-order conditions of the Lagrangian or employing Shephard's Lemma. Shephard's Lemma

enables economists to derive the optimal cost minimizing demand functions, Hicksian demand,

from any known expenditure function by taking the partial derivative of the expenditure function


with respect to price, E(p, u, z) Hicksian demand functions are caso called compensated
Op )

demand functions because if price changes, the individual must receive more income or

compensation in order to remain at the same utility level. Solutions to the utility-maximization









and cost-minimization problems produce the same optimizing quantities, thus the following

equality holds:

(3.22) x, = g, (p,, m, z) = g, (p,, E(p, u, z)) = h, (u, p,, z).

Marshallian and Hicksian solutions can be substituted back into their respective problems to

give, first, maximum attainable utility and, second, minimum attainable expenditure. Hence,

(3.23) U = v(x) = v(g(p,m, z)) = y(p, m, z) and

(3.24) m = Yp,x, = pkhk(u,p,z) = E(u,p,z).

Both the indirect utility function and expenditure function discussed in (3.23) provide alternative

techniques to derive the of optimal demand functions.

Changes in endogenous variables, particularly price and income, typically impact the

consumers' and expenditure decisions. However, the effect of price on quantities demanded is

typically more complex to analyze than is the effect of a change in income. The effect of a

change in price on quantity can be decomposed into a substitution effect and an income effect.

The substitution effect accounts for the variation in quantity demanded influenced by the fact the

relative price of one good changed; therefore, consumption decreases for the good whose relative

price increases. The income effect explains the variation resulting in an adjustment in the

consumers' purchasing power because price has changed. Mathematically, the own effect of a

price change of a good is expressed as follows:

(3.25) g(p, m, z) h, (p, z, (p, m)) g, (p, m, z)
Op, Op, am









x, (p, m, z)
The Marshallian, uncompensated, demand functions, decomposed into the
8p,

substitution effect and income effect, respectively, are on the right hand side of the equation.

This equation is known as Slutsky's Decomposition and can be rewritten as:

(3.26) 8g,(p,m,z) a h,(p,u,z) ag,(p,m,z)
(3.26) xpp
8p, 8p, am

Slutsky's Decomposition is important because it enables one to isolate the general effect (income

effect) and specific effect (substitution effect), (s,,), caused by price changes of a commodity.

From Slutsky's Decomposition it is apparent that Marshallian demands are more responsive to

price changes than Hicksian demands, and the budget share of a commodity significantly impacts

the difference between the Marshallian and Hicksian demands.

Hicksian, like the Marshallian, demand functions must satisfy the following properties

which serve as the basic general principles of demand functions.

Property 1: Homogeneity. Hicksian demands are homogeneous of degree zero in prices and

Marshallian demands in income (total expenditure) and price, for any positive scalar, k > 0:

(3.27) h, (u, kp, z) = h, (u, p, z) = g, (kp, km, z) = g, (p, m, z) .

Property 2: Adding up. The total expenditure in both Hicksian and Marshallian demands equal

the budget constraint:


(3.28) p,h, (p,..., p, u, z)= Rpg, (P..., P, m, z)= m.
1=1 1i=1

Property 3: Symmetry. The cross-price derivatives of the Hicksian demands are symmetric for

alli # j,

a(3.2h, (p,u,z) hj (p,u,z)
(3.29) p









h, (p, u, z) 9E(p, u, z)
It is important to emphasize that Young's theorem declares that second-
epj 8p,8p,

order partial derivatives are identical as long as both functions are continuous. Symmetry is

guaranteed because consumers' decisions are consistent.

Property 4: Negativity. The nxn matrix formed by price derivatives of the Hicksian demand

functions are negative semi-definite. This matrix of price derivatives is referred to as the

substitution matrix or Slutsky matrix of compensated price responses and elements of this matrix

Sh,(p,u) 9g,(p,m,z) 9g,(p,m,z) .
are denoted as s = (p, u) g (p, x Negativity implies that the
O apJ Op, am

diagonal elements of substitution matrix are nonpositive, for all i,

(3.30) s,, <0.

Indicating that an increase in price holding utility constant causes demand for that commodity to

fall or at least remain unchanged. Expression (3.28) is commonly referred to the law of demand.

Separability and Multi-Stage Budgeting

Separability is a concept commonly used in empirical studies to limit the number of

estimable parameters by imposing restrictions on preferences. This approach conveys important

information regarding the appropriate conditions partitioning commodities into groups or

aggregates and details on how consumers allocate expenditures within in each group. The

objective is to use conditions established by separability theory and partition goods into subsets

that include commodities that are closer substitutes or complements to each other than to

members of subsets. Separability of preferences is required to guarantee that the utility realized

in terms of individual commodities is identical to the utility achieved when some commodities

are aggregated. The theoretical basis for separability has been documented in Barten (1977)

Deaton and Muellbauer (1980), Pudney (1981) and Phlips (1983).









The composite commodity theorem develops the first conditions under which groups of

commodities can be treated as one. This theorem states that if a set of prices move in a parallel

fashion, the corresponding group of commodities can be treated as a single good. The composite

commodity theorem involves relative prices, which suggests prices move over time at

proportionate rates. The theorem is not appropriate when modeling a reality where prices are

constantly changing.

An alternative justification for commodity aggregation is based on the form of the utility

function itself. The necessary and sufficient condition for separable preferences is that the

marginal rate of substitution between any two commodities belonging to the same group are

independent of the value of any good in any other group. If this condition holds, the utility

function presented in (3.1) can be partitioned into m groups, and n,(r=1,...,m) represents the


commodities in each group (n = n, ) (Phlips 1983). Separable functions are written as
r=l

(3.31) U = f(xl,...,x,)= F(f,(xl,......,x,), f,(xh),... fxm (n).

These subutility functions are mutually exclusive and exhaustive subsets and at least one group

must contain two or more commodities. Mathematically, a utility is weakly separable if and only

if



(3.32) =0 for ijnr k nr.


Weak separability allows closely related commodities to be aggregated into groups

without losing important properties. Weak separability of preferences also imposes restrictions

on consumer behavior that limits the degree of substitution between goods in different groups.

To test for weak separability, some studies (Brown, 1993; Lee et al., 1992; Nagaya and Capps,









1994) elect to utilize the technique proposed by Goldman and Uzawa (1964). Their study

suggests that the necessary and sufficient condition for weak separability is that the off-diagonal

terms of the Slutsky substitution matrix are proportional to the income derivatives of the two

separable goods. As a consequence of separable preferences, cross-substitution terms become


(3.33) s, =GHax, i i G,je H, andG +H.
Sam am

The parameter OGH is a factor of proportionality, summarizing the interrelationships between

groups I and J. Multiplying both sides of (3.33) by pp, Im one obtains


(3.34) ZI, = PPJ = GH 0,


Block-wise dependence is a special case of weak separability. Under conditions (3.31)

the change of marginal utility of a dollar spent on the ith good (i SG )caused by an extra dollar

spent on thejth good which belongs to a different groups equals to aGH,

cu2
(3.35) = aGL i e G, k e L, G # L (Theil 1976).
0(pqJ)O(pkqk

This effect is independent of goods i and k, which implies the result is the same for all pairs of

commodities in the selected groups. Thus if orange juice and fruit juice are weakly separable

groups, an extra dollar spent on either Brand A or Brand B orange juice has the same effect on

the marginal utility of a dollar spent on any brand in the fruit juice category. Therefore, utility

interaction of two products in different groups is dependent of groups rather than individuals

goods (Theil, 1979, 1980).

According to Strotz (1957) and Gorman (1959) the separability property yields appealing

behavioral interpretation regarding the consumer allocation problem and simplifies the decision-









making process. Multistage budgeting is a common practice implies that consumers' can

allocate expenditure in multiple stages; at the first stage, expenditures are allocated to broad

groups of goods and the second and lower stages, require group expenditure to be allocated

across individual commodities (de Janvry, Bieri and Nunez 1972; Richards, Van Ispelen, and

Kagan 1997; Edgerton 1997;.

The simplest form of multistage budgeting contains two stages. Both of these allocations

have to be perfect in the sense that the results of two-stage budgeting must be identical to what

would occur if the allocation were made in one step with complete information. At the first stage,

allocation requires knowledge of total expenditure and appropriately defined group prices, while

at the second stage, individual expenditures must be functions of group expenditure and prices

within the group only. The second stage corresponds to a utility maximization problem of its

own because weak separability implies that decisions are independent of commodities outside of

a specified group. Thus, the conditional, Marshallian sub-group, demand functions that are

derived are written as:

(3.36) g, = xf,(mf, p,p ) i = 1, 2.

Conditional demand functions are derived from a standard utility maximizing process and

possess all the usual properties o

f demand functions.

Consumer demand theory assumes that an individual or household purchases a collection

of commodities which maximizes utility subject to a budget constraint. Commodities are

distinguishable by their nature, brand or quality; thus separability and two-stage maximization

provide the conditions that make theoretical plausible to reduce the number of variables by









grouping together some of the commodities, representing the quantities and prices of the

members of each group by a quantity-index and a price-index.

The Rotterdam Model

The differential demand model, developed by Barten (1964) and Theil (1965, 1975,

1980(a,b)) is based not on a particular utility function but, more generally, on a first-order

approximation to the demand functions themselves. The Rotterdam model is derived from the

maximization of a general utility function or total differentiation of a general demand function,

using economic theory to describe the demand for goods given income and prices faced by the

consumer. The Rotterdam model can be extended to include marketing variables such as

promotions or any other elements of the marketing mix (Clements and Selvanathan 1988; Duffy

1987; Brown and Lee 1997, 2006, 2007; Gao and Lee 1995; Theil 1980 (a,b)). Using theoretical

framework for the Rotterdam model is developed in equation (3.7) this can be written as

(3.38) wq,d(logq,)= Od(logQ)+ ,rd(log p )+ -k J dloga'

where w, = p, q, /m is the budget share for good i; 0, = p, Oq, /1p, is the marginal propensity to

consume; d(logQ)= wdlogq, is the Divisia volume index; 7r, =(p, p /m)s, is the Slutsky

coefficient, with s, = q,1 /p, + qj 8q, / am or the element in the ith row andjth column of the

substitution matrix; 1, = w, (a log q, / log a )is a promotional tactic coefficient indicating the

impact of the kth tactic used in promoting product on the demand for product i. The general

restrictions on demand are

(3.39a) Adding up: 1 0, = 1; = 0 ZkC = 0;

(3.39b) Homogeneity: r, = 0;

(3.39c) Symmetry: Tj = J,.









Baten's findings from equation (3.7) are then used to define / = ny Specifically, Barten

suggests the effect of the promotion is as follows

(3.7b) qz -S-


where A is the marginal utility of income; S is the nxn substitution or Slutsky matrix and

au 2
V= azk Therefore,



(3.40a) =q, S jk Or

(3.40a) o or

m ,- q, A1 O/m Om Om A q, Oz k


(3.40c) wa ddll ogq, = -ZhhYT hj


Assuming that promotional tactics only affect the marginal utility of the brand in question, the

coefficient of the promotional variable is written as ? = n yk Furthermore, Theil (1980)

restricted the kth promotional tactic to have the identical effect across all brands which suggests

that yk =yh. Hence, fl3 = ,y and the final model is written as

N
(3.41) w,d(log q,)= 0,d(logQ) + (dlog pj da) =l,..,n
j=1

The demand elasticities can be calculated using the parameters of the Rotterdam model in

equation (3.46) as:

(3.42a) compensated price: E, = (r, /w,

(3.42b) income: 77, =(0 /w)










(3.43c) promotional elasticity: dlog q, ( 7kZ k= 7ak
dloga




Aggregation Issues

Data available for empirical analysis is usually aggregated over households or

individuals, but consumer demand theory is formulated for individual households. The transition

from the microeconomics of consumer behavior to the analysis of market demand is frequently

referred to as the aggregation over individual problem. Aggregation prevents a straightforward

application of the theory to the data; therefore, aggregation theory provides necessary conditions

under which it is possible to treat aggregate consumer behavior as if it were the outcome of the

decisions of a single maximizing consumer; this case we shall refer to as that of exact

aggregation. Some economists possess the view that microeconomic theory has greater

relevance for aggregate data, arguing that the variations households average out to negligible

proportions in aggregate, leaving only the systemic effects of variations in prices and budgets

(Hicks, 1956).

The Rotterdam model is selected for this analysis because it is consist with consumer

demand theory and allows advertising variables to be incorporated directly into the utility

functions. This model also lends itself to empirically test for separability within commodity

groups without imposing additional a priori restrictions. Separability is used in empirical studies

to limit the number of estimable parameters. This approach conveys important information

regarding the condition for dividing commodities into groups or aggregates and relays

information on how consumers allocate expenditures within in each group.









CHAPTER 4
DATA SOURCE AND DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS

This chapter includes a discussion of the data set used to estimate demand

interrelationships between brands of orange juices, fruit juices, and fruit drinks. This section will

provide an overview of the data utilized this analysis as well as important descriptive statistics.

Data Sources

The availability of scanner data, data electronically collected at the stores or distribution

locations containing price and volume information, has revolutionized the manner in which

supermarkets operate and has provided substantial advances in food marketing (Capps 1989;

Nayga 1992; Cotterill 1994, 2004; Baron and Lock 1995; Capps and Love 2002; Jensen 2002).

Store/supermarket level scanner data, data collected from a national representative survey of

stores, offers researchers new opportunities because the data contains measures of product flow

through supermarkets and projects product movement in physical units, market share, prices, and

merchandising activities within a trading area. Merchandising activity includes, but is not

limited to, the percent of a product sold using in-store displays, the percent sold when product

appeared in feature advertisements, and the percent of a product sold using price reductions.

Using supermarket/store level data, researchers have conducted numerous market and consumer

demand studies supplying members of the food industry with a wealth of information on firm

behavior, consumer purchase patterns, and brand and product characteristics (Guadagni and

Little 1983; Capps 1989; Capps and Nayga 1989; Abraham and Lodish 1993). Regardless of its

richness, scanner data has several challenges and limitations (Capps 1989; Baron and Lock

1995): (a) the lack of household and consumer information, (b) the exclusion of foods consumed

away from home, and (c) sheer volume of information. Despite these limitations, scanner data

has provided food manufacturers, retailers, and policymakers with significant information,









enabling them to understand industry structure and the impact of price, promotion and other

marketing variables on sales and share of various products.

Separability Model

ACNielsen weekly scanner data containing unit sales and sales dollars information for all

brands of orange juice, fruit juices, and fruit drinks sold in 12 grocery accounts with stores

earning $2 million or more in annual sales were analyzed to aid in the understanding of demand

relationship among beverages. The period starting July 3, 2004 through the week ending in

August 26, 2006 (104) was studied. Data were 52nd difference to account for seasonality (for

the 52 weeks in the year). For simplification purposes, brands possessing less than five % of the

market share within orange juice, fruit juice, and fruit drink categories were not included in the

study. Thus, four brands of orange juice: Florida's Natural, Minute Maid, Private Label, and

Tropicana; five brands of fruit juices: Minute Maid, Private Label, Sunny D, Tropicana, and

Welch's; and six brands of fruit drinks: Capri Sun, Gatorade, Hi-C, POWERade, Sunny D, and

Tropicana are utilized to empirically test for separability between orange juice, fruit juice, and

fruit drinks.

In this study, 52 % of consumers' beverage expenditure was spent on orange juice brands

represented by the shades of green in Figure 4-1. Nine percent of consumers' budget was

allocated to fruit juices and expenditure share on fruit drinks was 29 % (shades of orange and

purple, respectively). Tropicana orange juice was the dominant brand and Gatorade followed in

second accounting for 21 % of the expenditure share. Average prices are derived by dividing

total sales by total units. The average price for the beverage brands varied from $2.88 per gallon

for Tropicana orange juice to $1.24 per gallon for private label fruit drinks. During the study

period, the price of all orange juice brands increased while the majority of fruit juice brands and

fruit drink brands had price decreases. The price of Welch's and Minute Maid fruit juices









increased by 6 % and 2 % during June 23, 2004 and December 23, 2006 and Capri Sun (fruit

drink) increased 2.5 % during the study period (Table 4-1). Despite the average price increases in

orange juice, all brands except Florida's Natural had increases in the quantity purchased.

Powerade (FD) Sunny D Tropicana Florida's
3% (FD) (FD) Natural (OJ) Minute Maid



Prii ate Label
(O J)
1%9%








Capri Sun m
(FD)
7 Tropicana
Welch's (FJ) Private
(FJ) 3% Label (FJ) Minute Maid
2% Sunny D (FJ) 1% (FJ)
1% 3%
Figure 4-1. Separability model expenditure share, by brands









Table 4-1. Separability model descriptive statistics
Change in
Change in Change in Price
Sales in Average Quantity
Category Product s Sales in Dollars re tt
Gallons Price Std Std
Mean Dev Mean Dev
S Florida's Natural 532,110 $ 1,255,539 $ 2.43 -0.158 0.616 0.062 0.125
| Minute Maid 944,844 $ 2,322,781 $ 2.49 0.056 0.343 0.026 0.102
S Private Label 1,210,289 $ 2,398,541 $ 1.99 0.042 0.323 0.043 0.100
0' Tropicana 2,650,117 $ 7,578,910 $ 2.88 0.049 0.192 0.004 0.096
3 Minute Maid 591,581 $ 939,263 $ 1.66 0.088 0.279 0.060 0.104
Private Label 126,701 $ 153,486 $ 1.24 0.122 0.277 -0.084 0.154
.to Sunny D 176,047 $ 300,978 $ 1.82 0.156 0.485 -0.056 0.221
Tropicana 411,254 $ 715,546 $ 1.80 0.236 0.318 -0.047 0.125
Welch's 209,479 $ 466,297 $ 2.24 0.205 0.213 0.017 0.057
Capri Sun 844,834 $ 1,733,512 $ 2.07 0.055 0.369 0.025 0.112
-4 Gatorade 2,570,844 $ 5,686,573 $ 2.26 0.240 0.323 -0.004 0.175
> Hi C 488,639 $ 936,122 $ 1.93 0.092 0.297 -0.025 0.057
S., POWERade 547,802 $ 779,184 $ 1.49 0.463 0.422 -0.129 0.116
4 Sunny D 338,069 $ 512,474 $ 1.63 0.413 0.486 -0.084 0.204
Tropicana 417,975 $ 671,974 $ 1.62 -0.081 0.300 -0.011 0.071









Promotional Model


Retailer X

The $400 billion grocery industry includes about 40,000 companies that operate 70,000

grocery stores. This industry is highly concentrated with the 50 largest companies controlling

about 70 % of the market. Retailer X represents a major grocery retailer whose strategy is to

provide consumers with quality products, superb customer service and an enriching shopping

experience.

ACNielsen aggregated scanner data set for Retailer X consists of unit sales, prices,

feature ads, displays, and temporary price reduction information in terms of %ACV for all

brands of refrigerated and shelved orange and grapefruit juice and fruit drinks sold during the

study period, July 7, 2004 through December 30, 2006 (122 weeks). The data was 52nd

difference to account for seasonality. To simplify the data set, brands controlling less than 5% of

market share were omitted from the study to eliminate aggregation bias. This study consists of

three brands of orange juice: Private Label, Minute Maid, and Tropicana; five brands of fruit

juices: Minute Maid, Private Label, Welch's, Sunny D, Tropicana; and six brands of fruit juices:

Tropicana, Capri Sun, Gatorade, Minute Maid, POWERade, Kool-Aid, and Snapple. These

brands are used to examine the impact of marketing variables on beverage demand.

According to expenditure share values, the majority of consumers' beverage expenditures

were spent on orange juice beverages, and Gatorade was the leading product sold by Retailer X.

Tropicana, Private Label, and Minute Maid orange juices are also major brand sold at Retailer X.

Tropicana orange juice had the highest average unit price among all beverage brands included in

the study, while POWERade had the lowest average price (Table 4-3). Significant price

changes occurred during the study period, most noticeably, the price of Private Label orange

juice increased by 10 % during the study period and the price of Gatorade and POWERade









declined 15 % and 11 % during this period. Given average price increases Gatorade and

POWERade, the quantity purchased dramatically decreased 32 % and 18 %, respectively. A

temporary price reduction (TRP) was the promotional tactic used most by Retailer X to stimulate

short term consumption. Gatorade was heavily promoted using TPRs during the study period; its

TRP level was also the highest among the four promotional tactics studied. Features and display

ads were used least by Retailer X (Table 4-3).

Private Label
Powerade (FD) (FD)
5% 5%




il aiId (OJ)




Kool-
Aid
(FD)
3%
Capri StiII (FD)
7T1
Sunny DSn --- Private Label
Minute Sunny D Welch's (FJ) (FJ)
(FD) Tropicana (FJ) Maid (FJ) (FJ) (FJ) (FJ)
3% 1% 4% 1% 2% 1%

Figure 4-2. Retailer X expenditure share by brands









Table 4-2. Retailer X descriptive statistics
Change in Change in
Average Prices Quantity
Category Product Sales in Gallons Sales Dollars AvPrie Prics Qntit
Price Std Std
Mean Dev Mean Dev
% Private Label 31,591,456 $ 59,008,166 $ 1.90 0.101 0.127 -0.112 0.207
MinuteMaid 21,388,603 $ 58,935,820 $ 2.82 0.049 0.162 0.032 0.323
S Tropicana 26,672,125 $ 81,484,815 $ 3.15 0.061 0.144 -0.022 0.277
Private Label 1,406,037 $ 2,389,645 $ 1.71 0.087 0.137 0.110 0.372
S Welch's 4,721,448 $ 9,766,917 $ 2.08 0.015 0.074 0.156 0.203
Sunny Delight 3,791,333 $ 6,291,619 $ 2.02 0.117 0.351 -0.147 0.742
MinuteMaid 11,866,118 $ 18,755,525 $ 1.72 0.061 0.100 0.056 0.285
Tropicana 2,021,010 $ 5,285,822 $ 2.68 0.174 0.143 -0.186 0.371
Sunny D 8,230,703 $ 11,411,946 $ 1.75 0.055 0.307 0.018 0.800
S Capri Sun 14,679,702 $ 28,226,720 $ 1.95 -0.056 0.198 0.000 0.413
Kool-Aid 11,126,289 $ 14,338,964 $ 1.30 -0.070 0.141 -0.022 0.212
S Gatorade 50,999,381 $ 93,499,073 $ 2.03 -0.107 0.347 0.323 0.538
POWERade 16,310,503 $ 20,630,560 $ 1.35 -0.146 0.111 0.181 0.273
Private Label 17,716,796 $ 21,588,916 $ 1.22 0.026 0.043 0.031 0.117









Table 4-3. Retailer X promotional activities sample statistics (in % ACV)
Category Product Feature Display F&D
U Private Label 47.07 11.19 6.97
Minute Maid 31.07 8.59 8.7
Tropicana 36.17 13.9 12.97
Private Label 0.97 1.46 0.01
8 Welch's 7.67 0.79 0.44
Sunny Delight 5.19 8.56 5.33
Minute Maid 22.24 7.29 2.81
Tropicana 0 3.53 0
Sunny D 10.29 14.2 7.2
Capri Sun 17.53 22.36 11.1
Kool-Aid 16.3 10.54 5.71
Gatorade 35.76 46.83 27.2
POWERade 13.39 20.16 5.4
Private Label 16.84 17.63 2.37


Retailer Z

Retailer Z represents a discount grocery retailer whose strategy is to provide consumers

with low prices. ACNielsen aggregated scanner data set for Retailer Z contains unit sales, prices,

feature ads, displays, and temporary price reduction information in terms of %ACV for all

brands of refrigerated and shelved orange and grapefruit juice and fruit drinks sold during the

study period, July 3, 2004 through June 26, 2006 (104 weeks). The data was 52nd difference to

account for seasonality. To simplify the data set, brands controlling less than five % of market

share were omitted from the study to eliminate aggregation bias. This study consists of three

brands of orange juice: Florida's Natural, Minute Maid, and Tropicana; six brands of fruit juices:

Minute Maid, Newman's Own, Turkey Hill, Vita J, Private Label, Welch's, Tropicana; and five

brands of fruit juices: Capri Sun, Gatorade, Minute Maid, POWERade, and Snapple which are

used to assess the influence of marketing variables on beverage demand.









According expenditure share values, the majority of consumers' beverage expenditures

were spent on orange juice beverages, and Tropicana orange juice was the leading product sold

by Retailer Z (Figure 4-4). Gatorade and Tropicana orange juice had the highest average unit

prices among all beverage brands included in the study, while Vita J and POWERade were

among the lowest priced brands. During the study period, Tropicana (fruit juice) prices were the

most volatile decreasing by 19 % during June 23, 2004 and December 23, 2006. Minute Maid

orange juice consumption increased considerably, 22 %, during the study period while

Newman's Own experienced a significant decline in consumption. Temporary price reductions

are the dominant promotional tactic used by Retailer Z. Tropicana orange juice and fruit juice

were the most heavily promoted brand of beverage and temporary price reduction was the

method of choice. Display and feature advertisements were the promotional schemes least used

by Retailer Z.









PowerAde
(FD) Florida's
2% Snapple (FD) Natural (OJ)
Minute Maid (FD)_ 3% 9%
2114, 11i


Minute Maid (OJ)
5%


VitaJ J
(FJ) Turkey Hill
0% (FJ)
1% Mir ute Maid (FJ)
Newmans Own (FJ)
1%


Figure 4-3. Retailer Z expenditure share by brands










Table 4-4. Retailer Z sample statistics


Category Brand


Sales in
Gallons


Sales in Dollars


Avg.
Price


Change in Price

Std.
Mean
Dev.


Change in
Quantity
Std.
Mean
Dev.


Florida's Natural
Minute Maid
Tropicana
Minute Maid
Newman's Own
Turkey Hill
Vita J
Welch's
Tropicana
Capri Sun
Gatorade
Minute Maid
POWERade
Snapple


v
+aj
d 8
s'^


wi
Q)
l-s
5-
fc


1,070,066
635,190
4,187,957
547,338
78,345
112,175
103,535
137,696
792,111
652,389
1,884,723
209,554
390,998
384,190


2,496,923
1,420,408
12,178,598
910,800
181,291
242,078
69,811
334,634
1,303,154
1,399,403
4,948,745
420,766
456,734
839,048


2.96
2.52
3.07
1.81
2.34
2.30
0.71
2.65
1.91
2.71
3.09
2.04
1.54
2.11


0.084
-0.084
0.010
-0.052
0.095
0.021
-0.114
0.021
-0.195
0.086
0.024
0.043
-0.061
0.150


0.372
0.255
0.243
0.203
0.140
0.188
0.227
0.211
0.360
0.288
0.316
0.166
0.227
0.347


-0.220
0.331
-0.062
0.168
-0.359
0.001
0.051
-0.007
0.607
-0.252
0.158
-0.333
0.262
-0.181


1.616
1.074
0.534
0.555
1.063
0.392
0.359
0.617
0.741
0.796
0.579
0.340
0.614
0.317









Table 4-6. Retailer Z sample statistics for promotional activities (in % ACV)
Category Brand Feature Display F&D
U Florida's Natural 31.44 6.90 13.62
R Minute Maid 19.40 1.54 4.98
O Tropicana 68.81 14.98 26.77
Minute Maid 17.15 6.40 3.21
S Newman's Own 0.00 0.00 0.00
Turkey Hill 1.85 3.60 0.08
S Vita J 8.94 1.13 1.13
Welch's 5.75 1.08 0.83
Tropicana 7.65 7.48 1.65
Capri Sun 21.65 7.87 13.94
S Gatorade 29.08 24.54 14.44
Minute Maid 3.25 1.04 0.00
2 POWERade 10.31 4.50 1.46
Snapple 31.02 6.13 10.77


The three data sets discussed in this chapter were collected by AC Nielsen. The data is

used to estimate three Rotterdam model. The results from the models will be used to make

inferences on the structure of the fruit juice/drink market, beverage demand relationships, and

the influence of marketing variable on beverage demand. This study will have multiple

marketing implications which can be utilized to better understand and position juice products.










CHAPTER 5
EMPIRICAL MODEL

Given the theoretical framework developed in Chapter 3, this chapter includes a discussion

of the empirical models used to test for separability within the fruit juice/drink market, to

estimate demand interrelationships between various brands of orange juices, fruit juices, and fruit

drinks; and to estimate the impact of retail promotions on beverage demand Two different

empirical models are developed in order to accomplish the previously mentioned objectives. The

first model tests for separability within the U.S. fruit juice market. The second model is

developed to analyze the influence of promotional strategies on the demand for orange juice,

fruit juice, and fruit drinks at two stores adopting different pricing philosophies. Time Series

Processor Program (TSP 5.0) was utilized to estimate the empirical models presented in this

sections.

Empirical Models

Separability Model

The absolute version of the Rotterdam model developed by Theil (1975) used to empirically

test for separability among refrigerated orange juices, fruit juices, and fruit drinks is written as

N
(5.1) w,,dlogq,,= dogQ + z 7dlogp,,
j-1

where wI = (wi, + w1 52)/ 2 represents the average expenditure share for brand i in time period t


Sd log q,, = represents the log change in the consumption level for brand i; 0, = p, a' is the
q,,,1 am

15
marginal propensity to consume; d(log Q) = w,d log q,t is the Divisia volume index;
-I1










T = j sY is the compensated price effect and s is the Slutsky coefficient, with



s = -q, + aqm q,, and d log p, = P representing the log change in the price of brand i.
sp j am -P,,,1

In econometric analyses, time series data usually violates the assumption of independence

of errors. In this model (5.1), the Durbin-Watson statistic did indicate the presence of positive

autocorrelation. Autocorrelation causes ordinary least squared estimates to no longer be efficient

because the variance is not minimized, the R-squared values are overestimated, and the

confidence intervals derived for hypothesis testing are wider, increasing the probability of a Type

I error (Bence 1995; Greene 2003; Gujarati 2003). The Cochran-Orcutt iterative procedure was

used to correct for first order autocorrelation. The first order autoregressive (AR(1)) model is the

procedure most widely used to correct for autocorrelation and calculate the value of the

coefficient of autocovariance, p, because higher order autocorrelation models are exceedingly

complex and provide no gains in the efficiency of the estimates (Greene 2003).

Demand equations for fifteen brands were estimated and analyzed in this study. When

empirically estimating demand systems, one equation must be omitted to prevent singularity of

the variance-covariance matrix of the disturbance terms and the general restrictions of demand

theory are directly applied to the parameters of the Rotterdam model in (5.3), specifically:

15 15
(5.2 a) Adding up: O, =1 and ) J = 0
1=1 1i

15
(5.2 b) Homogeneity: y = 0
J]1

(5.2 c) Symmetry: /71 = J. -









14
Given the restrictions, parameters for the omitted equations are easily recovered 0 = 1- 6 0

14
and ,z15 = 1- y z
]=1

w,,dlog q, = pw,,- d(log q,,_ )+ 0, (dlog Q, pdlog Q, )+
(5.3) J(d log p, -pdlog p,_,)+,,t

The demand elasticities are calculated using the parameters of the Rotterdam model

presented in equation (5.3) as:

(5.4) uncompensated price: o- = (7C, w,)-w ,1

(5.5) compensated price: e, = (z~ /w,)

(5.6) income:r, = (0,/w,) .

The method popularized Glodman and Uzawa is used to empirically test for block

dependence between the selected fruit juice/drink categories. The necessary and sufficient

condition for weak separability is that off-diagonal terms in the Slutsky substitution matrix are

proportional to the income derivatives of the two separable goods, shown in (5.7)


(5.7) s = GH m ) am
S 8m C8m

Oh,(p,u) Og,(p,m,z) ag,(p,m,z)
where all i G and all k H where s + J x elements of


the Slutsky matrix. Therefore, if brands in the fruit drink category are separable from those

brands in the orange juice category, then the factor of proportionality, H, is the same for all

brand combinations within these two categories. Using the parameters estimated in model (5.3)

the factor of proportionality is derived as

(5.8) =GH = i/0 ,.









The model estimated in (5.3) evaluates demand interrelationships and intrarelationships

for brands belonging to selected categories within the fruit juice/ drink market. Separability tests

are conducted among brands of orange juice, fruit juices and fruit drinks. Brands included in this

model and mode codes are shown in Table 5-1. Compensated price effects and income

elasticities are also calculated to identify the degree of substitutability between brands. Several

transformations that have occurred in the beverage industry and results from this model will

provide information on the structure of the fruit juice market. It is expected that major

competitors of orange juice are not limited to other breakfast juices, but also sports drinks and

single serve juices.

Table 5-1. Separability model codes
Category Brand Quantity Price log Budget Subscript
log changes changes Shares
Florida's Natural dlogqi dlogpi wi 1
S Minute Maid dlogq2 dlogp2 w2 2
Private Label dlogq3 dlogp3 w3 3
Tropicana dlogq4 dlogp4 w4 4
Minute Maid dlogq5 dlogp5 w5 5
Private Label dlogq6 dlogp6 w6 6
SSunny D dlogq7 dlogp7 w7 7
2 Tropicana dlogq8 dlogps w8 8
Welch's dlogg9 dlogp9 W9 9
Capri Sun dlogqio dlogpio wlo 10
Gatorade dlogqll dlogp11 wil 11
Hi C dlogq12 dlogpi2 w12 12
SPOWERade dlogq13 dlogp13 w13 13
SSunny D dlogq14 dlogp14 w14 14
Tropicana dlogql5 dlogp15 w15 15









Promotional Model

The Rotterdam model allows advertising variables to be directly incorporated into the

demand function, making it possible to estimate the effect of promotions on demand (Theil 1980;

Clements and Selvanathan 1988; Brown and Lee 2007). The model can be written as

N
(5.9a) w,,dlog q = OdlogQ + (dlogp Y, Ck da, ), or
j=1

N
(5.9b) wv,dlogq,, = ,dlogQ + I (dlogQp,, yldd, y2df,- y3dfdJ )or
J-1

N
(5.9c) w,,dlogq,, = OdlogQ + YZ, pa,
J-1

where w,, log q,, 0,, d log Q, rJ d log p,,, andd log da retain the definitions given in the


previous model and d log d,, d log fi,, and dlogfdj, are the level of promotional tactics for

displays, feature advertisements, and a combination of feature and displays, respectively.

Equation (5.9a) is simplified in equation (5.8b) where

d log pat = d log pt -dd, -y2df, -y3dfd and represents the perceived price. The level of

each promotional tactic is measured by the percentage of all commodity volume (ACV). The

coefficient 7k symbolizes the impact of promotional tactic k on the marginal utility of beverage.

This coefficient is expected to be positive because retailers use promotional tactics to encourage

consumption or demand. This model imposes the restrictions on the parameter yk to reduce the

number of parameter estimated, ensure the results are reliable, and to prevent the loss of all

degrees of freedom. Specifically, /k is assumed to remain constant across all beverage brands,

as found in studies conducted by Theil (1980) and Brown and Lee (2007).









Both the retailer adopting a non-price competitive philosophy (Retailer X) and the

discount retailer implementing a price competitive strategy (Retailer Y) contain 14 brands.

Thus, the same model is used to analyze the impact of promotional strategies on beverage

demand. Positive autocorrelation was also detected in the demand equations estimated in

equation (5.8). The Cochran-Orcutt method was used to correct for first order autocorrelation.

The AR(1) model is a follows:

w,,dlog q, = pw,,, d(log q,, )+0, (dlogQ, pdlog Q, )+

Z (d log paJt od log paj,_ ) + Et

The equation associated with the 14th brand is omitted to prevent singularity of the

variance-covariance matrix of the disturbance terms and the general restrictions of demand

theory are directly applied to the parameters of the Rotterdam model in (5.9), specifically,

14 14
(5.11 a) Adding up: Y 01 =1 and 0 ), =0
t-1 1-I

14
(5.11 b) Homogeneity: Z, = 0
J-1

(5.11c) Symmetry: 7TJ = J,,

The uncompensated and compensated price elasticities and the income elasticities are

calculated in the same manner discussed in equations using the parameters of the Rotterdam

model presented in equations (5.4), (5.5), and (5.6), respectively. Promotional elasticities are

derived as follows:


(5.12) promotional elasticity: logq, (Jk/w)ak
Slogan

Compensated price elasticities make it possible to identify substitutes or complements of

the brands of orange juice, fruit juice and fruit drinks included in this study. Brands included in









the Rotterdam model for Retailer X and Retailer Z are included Tables 5-2 and 5-3, respectively.

In addition, income and promotional elasticities are also estimated. Since elasticities are specific

to a supermarket account and each retailer imposes a different pricing philosophy, one can

determine the influence the store's strategy has on promotions. For example, shoppers at

"everyday low price" stores may be more responsive to temporary price reductions than shoppers

at stores focusing on providing quality products that do not compete so heavily on price.

Additionally, this study will be able to assess if brand promotions increase the demand for a

brand advertisements. This study will also provide information regarding the relationship

between of the leading brands of fruit juice beverages, the effectiveness of promotional strategies

and the impact of one brand's promotions on the demand for complementary and substitutable

products.

Table 5-2. Retailer X variable description

Category Brands Quantity Price Budget
log changes log changes Shares Codes
o Private Label dlogqi dlogpi wi 1
S- Minute Maid dlogq2 dlogp2 w2 2
0 Tropicana dlogq3 dlogp3 w3 3
Private Label dlogq4 dlogp4 w4 4
Welch's dlogq5 dlogp5 w5 5
S Sunny Delight dlogq6 dlogp6 w6 6
Minute Maid dlogq7 dlogp7 w7 7
Tropicana dlogqs dlogps w8 8
Sunny D dlogq9 dlogp9 w9 9
Capri Sun dlogqio dlogpio wlo 10
Kool-Aid dlogqll dlogpll wil 11
S Gatorade dlogq12 dlogp12 w12 12
2 POWERade dlogq13 dlogp13 w13 13
Private Label dlogq14 dlogp14 w14 14









Table 5-3. Retailer Z codes


Category Brand
S Florida's Natural
SMinute Maid
O ^ Tropicana
Minute Maid
Newman's Own
|- Turkey Hill
S Vita J
Welch's
Tropicana
Capri Sun
Gatorade
Minute Maid
POWERade
Snapple


Quantity
log changes
dlogqi
dlogq2
dlogq3
dlogq4
dlogq5
dlogq6
dlogq7
dlogqs
dlogq9
dlogqio
dlogqjl
dlogq12
dlogq13
dlogq14


Price
log changes


dlogpi
dlogp2
dlogp3
dlogp4
dlogp5
dlogp6
dlogp7
dlogps
dlogp9
dlogpio
dlogpll
dlogpi2
dlogpl3
dlogp14


Budget
Shares


Codes









CHAPTER 6
RESULTS

The results from the Rotterdam models used to test for separability within the juice/drink

market and the impact of promotions on the demand for beverages in this category are presented

in this chapter. Results from the separability model provide information on demand relationship

and the structure of the fruit juice/drink market. This study also compares and contrasts the

impact of promotion across two stores adopting different pricing philosophies. Retailer X

represents a major grocery retailer whose strategy is to provide consumers with quality products,

superb customer service and an enriching shopping experience. Retailer Z represents a discount

grocery retailer whose strategy is to provide consumers with low prices. Parameter estimates

associated with the Separability Model, Retailer X Model, and Retailer Z Model are shown in

Appendix A, B, and C, respectively.

Separability Model

In an effort to understand the structure of the beverage industry, tests were run to see if

block-wise dependence amongst beverage categories exists. The Wald Test was used to test for

separability within the beverage category and results from the separability tests are exhibited in

Table 4- The hypothesis of block-wise dependence suggests that the specific cross price effect

between any two products in two different product groups is identical for all pairs of products in

the two groups. The hypothesis of block dependence is rejected (Table 6-1), which implies that

equation (5.8) does not hold. The factor of proportionality, ,GH, is not identical for all brand

combinations within the two categories in question (i.e. orange juice and fruit juice), hence, one

can conclude that products belonging to different product categories are competitors; hence,

orange juice is not only competing with the breakfast juices, but with brands in other fruit market









categories. Since block dependence is rejected, it is not plausible to believe that block

independence, a stronger hypothesis will hold and test for block independence were not run.

Table 6-2. Separability results
Chi- Test
Categories df P-value
Category Squared Statistic
Orange Juice (OJ) and Fruit Juice (FJ) 1992.21 45.32 20 0.000
Orange Juice and Fruit Drinks 467.71 49.73 23 0.000
Fruit Juice and Fruit Drinks (FD) 568.47 59.70 30 0.000

Block-wise dependence directly impacts specific effect of the Slutsky equation which is

partly determined by the marginal relationship between goods i andj. Block-wise dependence

suggests the specific effect is identical for all products in groups i andj. Rejecting the block-

wise dependence hypothesis suggests that the change in marginal utility of a dollar spent on a

product caused by an extra dollar spent on another product is not the same for all pairs of

products within the same category. Thus, consumers do not perceive brands within a category as

the same and brands to influence consumers' purchases. This result also suggests that a change

in the marginal utility of a dollar spent on a brand in one product group caused by an extra dollar

spent on another brand in a different product category varies for each combination of brands

within the two categories. Thus, an extra dollar spent on any brand of orange juice (i.e.

Tropicana) affects the marginal utility of another dollar spent on any brand in the fruit drinks

category (i.e. Gatorade). In conclusion when analyzing the demand for beverages, brand

managers should not focus solely other breakfast juices or other isotonics, but one must focus on

all beverage simultaneously.









Promotional Models


Retailer X

Econometric estimates associated with the autoregressive model are shown in Appendix B-

The marginal expenditure shares (0,) for all beverage brands are positive and significantly

different from zero. These values range from 0.004 (Private Label fruit juice) to 0.373

(Gatorade). Summing the across marginal expenditure share within each category, orange juice

sales increases 28% given a one dollar increase in beverage expenditures, fruit juices increase

9% and fruit drinks increase by 63%. As suggested by theory, all own compensated price

coefficients are negative and statistically significant (Appendix B Table B-2). Slutsky

coefficients measure the net substitution effect of a change of the ith product given a change in

the price of thejth good holding income constant. As discussed in Chapter 3 the sign of the

slutsky coefficient, r ,, determines the relationship between i andj which provides information

on the structure of the market. Products are net substitutes when r. is positive and net

complements when /r is negative. Based upon that compensated price coefficients one can

concludes that brands compete with products within the same category, as well as products in the

other categories.

Expenditure and cross price elasticities also provide insights on the structure of the fruit

juice market and demand relationships. All expenditure elasticities are estimates at the sample

mean and vary from 0.423 (Minute Maid orange juice) to 1.878 (Gatorade) suggesting

consumers perceive some beverages as necessities and others as luxury goods (Table 6-3). For

example, Retailer X's private label beverages in the orange juice, fruit juice, and fruit drinks

categories are perceived as necessities and fruit drinks such as Sunny Delight, Capri Sun,

Gatorade, and POWERade are viewed as luxury products. The expenditure elasticities for the









luxury goods are in the elastic range suggesting that consumers have a strong preference for this

goods-hence luxury goods. The income elasticities for both necessities and luxury goods are

positive, but the demand for luxury goods is more responsive to changes in income. Thus, as

consumer's expenditures increases by one more than one percent of their increased income

would be allocated to the luxury products. As a result of the increased expenditures, the orange

juice industry would be worse off relative to the fruit juice and fruit drink markets because

consumers would purchase more of the luxury goods for which they have a stronger preference.

For example, as income increase by 1% the expenditure on Private Label, Minute Maid, and

Tropicana orange juice increase by 68%, 42%, and 65%, respectively. However, Sunny Delight,

Capri Sun, Kool-Aid, and Gatorade (fruit drinks) increase 104%, 131%, 141%, and 188% given

a 1% increase income. Results from the separability test suggest that consumer have an

expenditure budget and the all beverages are competing for a share of the budget. Thus, as

expenditure increase, expenditure share on brands of fruit drinks and fruit juices will increase

because more consumers are coming into the market.

Table 6-3. Retailer X Expenditure Elasticities
Categories Brands Estimate Std. Error P-value
V, Private Label 0.684 0.093 [.000]
Minute Maid 0.423 0.084 [.000]
O Tropicana 0.652 0.076 [.000]
Private Label 0.827 0.165 [.000]
Welch's 0.868 0.133 [.000]
2 Sunny Delight 1.095 0.174 [.000]
Minute Maid 0.905 0.078 [.000]
Tropicana 0.650 0.108 [.000]
Sunny Delight 1.040 0.325 [.001]
S Capri Sun 1.318 0.186 [.000]
Kool-Aid 1.414 0.200 [.000]
S Gatorade 1.878 0.178 [.000]
POWERade 0.970 0.167 [.000]
Private Label 0.843 0.096 [.000]









Compensated price elasticities include the income effect and determine if two products

are net substitutes or complements. Net complements are negative and statistically significant

compensated cross price elasticities. Whereas, net substitutes have positive and statistically

significant compensated cross price elasticities. All the fourteen own price elasticities were

significant and all of the products except private label fruit juice were in the elastic range. The

own price elasticity values range from -0.926 (Private label FD) and -2.827 (Sunny Delight FD).

Seventy-nine percent of the cross price elasticities were significant (Tables 6-4 through 6-6). Of

the significant cross price elasticities, 96 % were positive suggesting that the products were net

substitutes. Estimates indicate that products within the same product line were complements.

Though this may seem counterintuitive, this result is expected as brand managers position their

products in this manner to prevent cannibalism.

Brands of orange juice were more responsive to price change for products within the

same category. Cross price elasticities when both brands were orange juice beverages ranged

from 0.229 to 0.388, indicating the change in demand for one brand of orange juice ranges from

23% to 38% given a 1% price change in another brand. Whereas, the changes in the demand for

orange juice ranged from -3 % to 10 % in response to a 1 % change in the price of a fruit juice

and 3.2 % to 19.3% given an 1 % change in the price of brands of fruit drinks. Own category

cross price elasticities for fruit juice beverages were ranging from -0.076 to 0.447. Cross price

elasticities fruit juice given a 1% change in orange juices ranged from -0.456 to 0.468 and the

elasticity for fruit juice given a 1% in fruit drinks ranges from -0.265 to 0.644. The demand for

fruit drinks change by -17% to 31% given a 1% increase in the price of another fruit drink. In

contrast, the demand for fruit drinks changed from 9 % to 51 % in response to a 1 % change in









the price of orange juice and 11% to 26 % given a 1 % change in the price of brands of fruit

juices.

The findings from this study suggest that the brands of orange juice included in this study

are substitutes for brands in the fruit juice and fruit drink categories. Furthermore, the demands

for fruit juices and fruit drinks brands were more responsive to price changes in brands of orange

juice. For example, a 1 % increase in the price of Tropicana orange juice causes the demand for

Sunny Delight (FJ) to increase by 47 %. Conversely, a 1 % increase in the price of Sunny

Delight (FJ) causes the demand for Tropicana orange juice 4 %. Additionally, a 1 % increase in

the price of Tropicana orange juice causes the demand for Capri Sun (FD) to increase by 46 %

and a 1 % increase in the price of Capri Sun (FD) causes the demand for Tropicana orange juice

to increase by 14 %. These results suggest that competitors of orange juice are not limited to

other breakfast juices but also include single serve beverages and sports drinks. Furthermore, the

fruit juice and fruit drinks categories experience substantial increases in demand given small

price changes in orange juice products.

Overall, the majority of the cross price elasticities were in the inelastic range suggesting

consumers' demand for products within the orange juice, fruit juice and fruit drink categories

does not significantly increase in response to prices of other brands within these categories.

Features without displays, displays without features, and display accompanied by feature

advertisements are promotional tactics used by retailers in to increase the demand of the product

in question by changing the perceived price of the brand. It is expected that the coefficients for

promotional tactics are positive because advertising is thought to have a positive impact on

marginal utility. Results indicate that all promotional tactics were significantly different from

zero and had a positive impact on the marginal utility (Appendix B Table B-2). Feature









advertisements accompanied by displays had the largest impact on marginal utility, followed by

in-store displays.

Promotional elasticities for Retailer X are presented in Appendix B Table B-3 through

Table B-11. These values represent the change in the quantity of good i demand relative to

changes in a promotional activity. For example, increasing the display activity by 1 % increases

the demand for private label orange juice by 2%. Own promotional elasticities should be

positive. Additionally, positive cross promotional elasticities indicate two products in question

are complements and negative promotional cross elasticities indicate the goods are substitutes.

The demand for Retailer X's private label products is less responsive to promotional tactics when

compared to national branded products. The demand for private label products also were more

responsive to promotional efforts of national brands than the demand for national brands were

impacted by the promotional tactics of private label products. This behavior may be observed

because consumers possess a stronger preference for national brands and because these products

possess higher brand equity. All of the significant cross promotional elasticities were in the

inelastic range suggesting that large increases in promotional tactics have small impacts on the

demand for the brands of orange juice, fruit juice, fruit drinks included in this study. The fruit

juice market is extremely mature therefore demands for products within this market are less deal

elastic. Results suggest that brand promotions utilized by Retailer X do not necessarily increase

demand. Thus, Retailer X may use promotional tactics to simply increase store traffic.

Retailer Z

Econometric estimates associated with the autoregressive model are shown in Appendix C.

The marginal expenditure shares (0,) for eleven of the fourteen beverage brands are positive and

significantly different from zero. These values range from 0.024 (Minute Maid FD) to 0.377









(Tropicana OJ). Orange juice sales experience the largest marginal increase in demand given a

one dollar increase in expenditures followed by fruit drinks then fruit juices. All own

compensated price coefficients are negative and statistically significant (Appendix C Table C-2)

which is consistent with consumer demand theory. Slutsky coefficients make it possible to

identity relationships between products.

One can make inferences regarding the demand relationships of beverage within the fruit

juice market based upon expenditure and cross price elasticities. Expenditure elasticities vary

from 0.477(Snapple) to 3.292 (Welch's) suggesting some beverages are perceived as necessities

and others as luxury goods (Table 6-3). Various brands of orange juice, fruit juice, and drinks

were considered luxury goods. Specifically, Florida's Natural, Newman's Own, Capri Sun,

Gatorade, and POWERade were perceived as luxury products suggesting that consumers

preferred these goods over the other brands included in the study. Based upon these results, the

orange juice category would benefit from an increase in consumer's expenditures due to their

marginal share values and income elasticities.









Table 6-4. Expenditure Elasticities for Brands at Retailer Z
Std.
Categories Brands Estimate Error P-value
a Florida's Natural 1.210 0.394 [.002]
Minute Maid 0.655 0.537 [.223]
O Tropicana 0.807 0.104 [.000]
Minute Maid 0.715 0.206 [.001]
Newman's Own 3.501 0.675 [.000]
Turkey Hill 1.045 0.221 [.000]
Vita J 0.901 0.294 [.002]
Welch's 0.477 0.293 [.103]
Tropicana 0.605 0.206 [.003]
Capri Sun 1.790 0.308 [.000]
S Gatorade 1.202 0.251 [.000]
Minute Maid 1.288 0.288 [.000]
2 POWERade 3.292 0.665 [.000]
Snapple 0.464 0.298 [.120]


Compensated price elasticities identify whether products were net substitute and

complements. Thirteen of the fourteen own price elasticities were significant and eleven of the

products were in the elastic range. Own price elasticities values ranged from -0.783 (Troipanca

OJ ) to -5.344 (POWERade). Nearly fifty-five % of the cross price elasticities were significant

(Tables 6.13 through 6.22). Of the cross price elasticities that are significant, 98 % were positive

suggesting that the products were net substitutes. Unlike Retailer X's results, many cross price

elasticities between orange juice brands and fruit juice brands were insignificant. However,

some similarities existed. For example, Capri Sun, Gatorade, and POWERade were still

substitutes to brands of orange juice, but these results show the cross price elasticities between

POWERade and the brands of orange juice are in the elastic range. This implies that a small

percentage change in the price orange juice will equate to large changes in the quantity of

POWERade demanded. In this model, orange juice products were more responsive to price

change for products within the same category, but the demand for fruit juices and fruit drinks









responded more to change in the price of orange juice. For example, a 1 % increase in the price

of Tropicana orange juice causes the demand for POWERade to increase by 168 %. One the

other hand, a 1 % increase in the price POWERade causes the demand for Tropicana orange

juice to increase 54 %. Additionally, a 1 % increase in the price of Tropicana orange juice

causes the demand for Newman's Own (FJ) to increase by 189 %. Whereas, a 1 % increase in the

price of Newman's Own (FJ) causes the demand for Tropicana orange juice to increase 17%.

These results suggest that the fruit juice and fruit drink market would expand at the expense of

the orange juice market given any shock that causes the prices of orange juice to increase.

Promotional elasticities for Retailer Z are presented in Appendix C Tables C-3 through

Table C- 1. Demand theory suggests that own promotional elasticities should be positive and

cross promotional elasticities are negative if the two products in question are substitutes and

positive if the two goods are complements. The promotional coefficients (Appendix C Table C-

2) for Retailer Z are larger the coefficient at Retailer X. Recall, that Retailer Z is a discount

retailer; therefore, one can assume that this store would attract customers that are price sensitive

and deal seekers. Magnitudes of the promotional coefficients suggest that display and feature

advertisement had the highest impact on demand followed by display only, and feature only.

The demands for different orange juice brands were more responsive to the promotional

activity orange juice brand when compared to changes in the demand for orange juice given

changes in promotional activities of fruit juice and fruit drink products. The overall impact of

brand promotions on demand is minimal and in the inelastic range. These results further support

the notion that the demand in a mature market is less responsive to suggesting that large

increases in promotional tactics. The fruit juice market is extremely mature therefore the

demands for products within this market are less deal elastic. Results suggest that brand









promotions utilized by Retailer X do not necessarily increase demand. Thus, Retailer X may use

promotional tactics to simply increase store traffic.

Results from this study suggest the consumers do not allocate their beverage expenditure

according to product type and that all beverages are competing for consumer dollars.

Additionally results from Retailer X and Retailer Z identify brands such as Gatorade,

POWERade, and Capri Sun as competitors of orange juice brands, but that these relationships are

asymmetric. Shoppers at Retailer Z were found to be more deal sensitive. Feature advertisements

and displays were promotional tactics that had the most profound impact on beverage demand.









Table 6-5. Orange juice own and cross category compensated price elasticities for Retailer X
Category Brands Estimate Std. Error P-Value
Private Label/Private Label -1.227 0.039 [.000]
Private Label/Minute Maid 0.285 0.025 [.000]
o Private Label/Tropicana 0.310 0.026 [.000]
S Minute Maid/Private Label 0.298 0.026 [.000]
O
S Minute Maid/Minute Maid -1.409 0.042 [.000]
Minute Maid/Tropicana 0.388 0.027 [.000]
g Tropicana/Private Label 0.229 0.019 [.000]
Tropicana/Minute Maid 0.274 0.019 [.000]
O Tropicana/Tropicana -1.208 0.038 [.000]
Private Label/Private Label -0.011 0.007 [.082]
Private Label/Welch's 0.048 0.011 [.000]
Private Label/Sunny Delight 0.038 0.012 [.001]
Private Label/Minute Maid 0.069 0.012 [.000]
Private Label/Tropicana 0.013 0.007 [.058]
Minute Maid/Private Label 0.016 0.003 [.000]
Minute Maid/Welch's 0.021 0.009 [.017]
S Minute Maid/Sunny Delight 0.041 0.008 [.000]
Minute Maid/Minute Maid 0.101 0.012 [.000]
S Minute Maid/Tropicana 0.021 0.004 [.000]
0 Tropicana/Private Label 0.012 0.003 [.000]
Tropicana/Welch's 0.039 0.006 [.000]
Tropicana/Sunny Delight 0.036 0.006 [.000]
Tropicana/Minute Maid 0.079 0.007 [.000]
Tropicana/Tropicana -0.030 0.004 [.000]









Table 6-5. Continued
Category Brands
Private/Sunny Delight
Private/Capri Sun
Private/Kool-Aid
Private/Gatorade
Private/POWERade
-* Private/Private
Minute Maid/Sunny Delight
S Minute Maid/Capri Sun
Minute Maid/Kool-Aid
S Minute Maid/Gatorade
Minute Maid/POWERade
Minute Maid/Private
o Tropicana/Sunny Delight
Tropicana/Capri Sun
Tropicana/Kool-Aid
Tropicana/Gatorade
Tropicana/POWERade
Tropicana/Private


Estimate
0.091
0.056
0.064
0.205
0.077
-0.018
0.047
0.167
0.075
0.122
0.070
0.042
0.059
0.137
0.075
0.193
0.072
0.032


Std. Error
0.021
0.028
0.020
0.041
0.026
0.023
0.018
0.027
0.019
0.036
0.023
0.015
0.014
0.021
0.013
0.033
0.016
0.011


P-Value
[.000]
[.045]
[.001]
[.000]
[.003]
[.435]
[.008]
[.000]
[.000]
[.001]
[.002]
[.004]
[.000]
[.000]
[.000]
[.000]
[.000]
[.003]









Table 6-6. Fruit juice own and cross category compensated price elasticities for Retailer X
Category Brands Estimate Std. Error P-Value
Private/Private -0.320 0.184 [.082]
Private/Minute Maid 0.427 0.081 [.000]
Private/Tropicana 0.458 0.096 [.000]
Welch's/Private 0.316 0.073 [.000]
.2 Welch's/Minute Maid 0.133 0.056 [.017]
Welch's/Tropicana 0.345 0.053 [.000]
Sunny Delight/Private 0.363 0.112 [.001]
O Sunny Delight/Minute Maid 0.375 0.071 [.000]
Sunny Delight/Tropicana 0.468 0.078 [.000]
Minute Maid/Private 0.234 0.041 [.000]
S Minute Maid/Minute Maid 0.328 0.038 [.000]
Minute Maid/Tropicana 0.365 0.031 [.000]
Tropicana/Private 0.145 0.076 [.058]
Tropicana/Minute Maid 0.227 0.044 [.000]
Tropicana/Tropicana -0.456 0.061 [.000]
Private Label/Private Label -1.452 0.177 [.000]
Private Label/Welch's 0.410 0.139 [.003]
Private Label/Sunny Delight -0.447 0.236 [.058]
Private Label/Minute Maid -0.142 0.125 [.257]
Private Label/Tropicana -0.046 0.138 [.737]
Welch's/Private Label 0.097 0.033 [.003]
S Welch's/Welch's -2.484 0.105 [.000]
2 Welch's/Sunny Delight 0.122 0.073 [.096]
Welch's/Minute Maid 0.412 0.075 [.000]
Welch's/Tropicana 0.077 0.043 [.073]
S Sunny Delight/Private Label -0.152 0.08 [.058]
Sunny Delight/Welch's 0.175 0.105 [.096]
Sunny Delight/Sunny Delight -2.174 0.218 [.000]
Sunny Delight/Minute Maid -0.045 0.095 [.638]
Sunny Delight/Tropicana -0.019 0.093 [.835]
Minute Maid/Private Label -0.017 0.015 [.257]
Minute Maid/Welch's 0.212 0.039 [.000]
Minute Maid/Sunny Delight -0.016 0.034 [.638]
Minute Maid/Minute Maid -2.161 0.058 [.000]









Table 6-6. Continued
Category Brands Estimate Std. Error P-Value
Minute Maid/Tropicana 0.044 0.021 [.032]
Tropicana/Private Label -0.019 0.055 [.737]
8 8 Tropicana/Welch's 0.130 0.072 [.073]
Tropicana/Sunny Delight -0.023 0.109 [.835]
S Tropicana/Minute Maid 0.144 0.067 [.032]
Tropicana/Tropicana -1.075 0.092 [.000]
Private Label/Sunny Delight 0.644 0.268 [.016]
Private Label/Capri Sun 0.145 0.089 [.102]
Private Label/Kool-Aid 0.037 0.158 [.813]
Private Label/Gatorade 0.303 0.071 [.000]
Private Label/POWERade 0.097 0.115 [.932]
Private Label/Private Label -0.027 0.322 [.933]
Welch's/Sunny Delight -0.024 0.088 [.780]
Welch's/Capri Sun 0.169 0.057 [.003]
Welch's/Kool-Aid -0.152 0.105 [.147]
Welch's/Gatorade 0.335 0.059 [.000]
Welch's/POWERade 0.393 0.081 [.000]
Welch's/Private Label 0.262 0.137 [.057]
S Sunny Delight/Sunny Delight 0.058 0.247 [.814]
Sunny Delight/Capri Sun 0.161 0.076 [.035]
2 Sunny Delight/Kool-Aid -0.265 0.123 [.031]
o Sunny Delight/Gatorade 0.392 0.076 [.000]
Sunny Delight/POWERade 0.174 0.092 [.057]
Sunny Delight/Private Label 0.487 0.229 [.033]
Minute Maid/Sunny Delight 0.158 0.043 [.000]
Minute Maid/Capri Sun 0.108 0.034 [.002]
Minute Maid/Kool-Aid 0.084 0.058 [.150]
Minute Maid/Gatorade 0.273 0.035 [.000]
Minute Maid/POWERade 0.244 0.048 [.000]
Minute Maid/Private Label 0.144 0.068 [.035]
Tropicana/Sunny Delight 0.129 0.125 [.301]
Tropicana/Capri Sun 0.146 0.05 [.003]
Tropicana/Kool-Aid 0.282 0.086 [.001]
Tropicana/Gatorade 0.180 0.047 [.000]
Tropicana/POWERade 0.069 0.062 [.263]
Tropicana/Private Label 0.121 0.167 [.470]









Table 6-7. Fruit drink own and cross category compensated price elasticities for Retailer X
Category Brands Estimate Std. Error P-Value
Sunny Delight/Private Label 0.517 0.120 [.000]
Sunny Delight/Minute Maid 0.256 0.097 [.008]
Sunny Delight/Tropicana 0.458 0.105 [.000]
Capri Sun/Private Label 0.117 0.058 [.045]
Capri Sun/Minute Maid 0.331 0.053 [.000]
Capri Sun/Tropicana 0.384 0.059 [.000]
Kool-Aid/Private Label 0.256 0.079 [.001]
Kool-Aid/Minute Maid 0.285 0.072 [.000]
Kool-Aid/Tropicana 0.403 0.068 [.000]
14 Gatorade/Private Label 0.148 0.030 [.000]
Gatorade/Minute Maid 0.085 0.025 [.001]
.t Gatorade/Tropicana 0.189 0.033 [.000]
S POWERade/Private Label 0.230 0.076 [.003]
POWERade/Minute Maid 0.198 0.064 [.002]
POWERade/Tropicana 0.291 0.064 [.000]
Private Label/Private Label -0.052 0.066 [.435]
Private Label/Minute Maid 0.115 0.040 [.004]
Private Label/Tropicana 0.124 0.041 [.003]
Sunny Delight/Private Label 0.132 0.055 [.016]
Sunny Delight/Welch's -0.021 0.076 [.780]
Sunny Delight/Sunny Delight 0.035 0.149 [.814]
Sunny Delight/Minute Maid 0.266 0.072 [.000]
Sunny Delight/Tropicana 0.066 0.064 [.301]
Capri Sun/Private Label 0.011 0.007 [.102]
Capri Sun/Welch's 0.053 0.018 [.003]
S Capri Sun/Sunny Delight 0.035 0.017 [.035]
S Capri Sun/Minute Maid 0.066 0.021 [.002]
Capri Sun/Tropicana 0.027 0.009 [.003]
Kool-Aid/Private Label 0.053 0.023 [.813]
S Kool-Aid/Welch's -0.092 0.063 [.147]
Kool-Aid/Sunny Delight -0.111 0.052 [.031]
S Kool-Aid/Minute Maid 0.098 0.068 [.150]
Kool-Aid/Tropicana 0.100 0.031 [.001]
Gatorade/Private Label 0.078 0.002 [.000]
Gatorade/Welch's 0.037 0.006 [.000]
Gatorade/Sunny Delight 0.030 0.006 [.000]
Gatorade/Minute Maid 0.058 0.007 [.000]
Gatorade/Tropicana 0.012 0.003 [.000]
POWERade/Private Label 0.010 0.012 [.932]









Table 6-7. Continued
Category Brands
POWERade/Welch's
.2 POWERade/Sunny Delight
POWERade/Minute Maid
5 POWERade/Tropicana
Private Label/Private Label
Private Label/Welch's
Private Label/Sunny Delight
Private Label/Minute Maid
Private Label/Tropicana
Sunny Delight/Sunny Delight
Sunny Delight/Capri Sun
Sunny Delight/Kool-Aid
Sunny Delight/Gatorade
Sunny Delight/POWERade
Sunny Delight/Private Label
Capri Sun/Sunny Delight
Capri Sun/Capri Sun
Capri Sun/Kool-Aid
Capri Sun/Gatorade
Capri Sun/POWERade
S Capri Sun/Private Label
S Kool-Aid/Sunny Delight
Kool-Aid/Capri Sun
Kool-Aid/Kool-Aid
"* Kool-Aid/Gatorade
S Kool-Aid/POWERade
Kool-Aid/Private Label
Gatorade/Sunny Delight
Gatorade/Capri Sun
Gatorade/Kool-Aid
Gatorade/Gatorade
Gatorade/POWERade
Gatorade/Private Label
POWERade/Sunny Delight
POWERade/Capri Sun
POWERade/Kool-Aid
POWERade/Gatorade


Estimate
0.177
0.055
0.213
0.018
-0.003
0.113
0.147
0.121
0.031
-2.827
0.387
0.523
0.224
0.185
-0.202
0.140
-1.857
0.045
0.315
0.163
0.171
0.365
0.086
-2.106
0.376
0.173
0.162
0.028
0.110
0.068
-0.905
0.075
0.059
0.096
0.234
0.129
0.306


Std. Error
0.036
0.029
0.042
0.016
0.033
0.059
0.069
0.057
0.043
0.193
0.111
0.103
0.144
0.104
0.163
0.040
0.097
0.042
0.081
0.049
0.035
0.072
0.081
0.146
0.088
0.087
0.109
0.018
0.028
0.016
0.081
0.018
0.011
0.054
0.070
0.065
0.074


P-Value
[.000]
[.057]
[.000]
[.263]
[.933]
[.057]
[.033]
[.035]
[.470]
[.000]
[.001]
[.000]
[.120]
[.075]
[.216]
[.001]
[.000]
[.292]
[.000]
[.001]
[.000]
[.000]
[.292]
[.000]
[.000]
[.049]
[.137]
[.120]
[.000]
[.000]
[.000]
[.000]
[.000]
[.075]
[.001]
[.049]
[.000]









Table 6-7. Continued
Category Brands
POWERade/POWERade
S POWERade/Private Label
Private Label/Sunny Delight
S- Private Label/Capri Sun
S Private Label/Kool-Aid
Private Label /Gatorade
Private Label/POWERade
Private Label/Private Label


Estimate
-1.988
0.042
-0.101
0.236
0.116
0.232
0.040
-0.926


Std. Error
0.117
0.061
0.081
0.048
0.078
0.042
0.059
0.198


P-Value
[.000]
[.499]
[.216]
[.000]
[.137]
[.000]
[.499]
[.000]









Table 6-8. Orange juice own and cross category compensated price elasticities for Retailer Z
Std.
Category Brands Estimate Error P-value
Florida's Natural\Florida's Natural -2.868 0.146 [.000]
S Florida's Natural\Minute Maid 0.511 0.075 [.000]
to Florida's Natural\Tropicana 1.153 0.107 [.000]
S Minute Maid\Florida's Natural 1.071 0.157 [.000]
O
S Minute Maid\Minute Maid -3.769 0.249 [.000]
S Minute Maid\Tropicana 1.495 0.167 [.000]
S Tropicana\Florida's Natural 0.241 0.022 [.000]
Tropicana\Minute Maid 0.149 0.017 [.000]
S Tropicana\Tropicana -0.754 0.040 [.000]
Florida's Natural\Minute Maid -0.018 0.036 [.616]
Florida's Natural\Newman's Own 0.149 0.036 [.000]
Florida's Natural\Turkey Hill 0.035 0.014 [.016]
Florida's Natural\Vita J 0.013 0.006 [.033]
Florida's Natural\Welch's 0.049 0.023 [.032]
Florida's Natural\Tropicana 0.097 0.032 [.002]
Minute Maid\Minute Maid 0.170 0.072 [.018]
Minute Maid\Newman's Own 0.169 0.051 [.001]
Minute Maid\Turkey Hill 0.027 0.020 [.174]
Minute Maid\Vita J 0.008 0.008 [.313]
S Minute Maid\Welch's 0.049 0.037 [.186]
Minute Maid\Tropicana 0.152 0.082 [.064]
0 Tropicana\Minute Maid 0.021 0.006 [.000]
Tropicana\Newman's Own 0.030 0.005 [.000]
Tropicana\Turkey Hill 0.010 0.002 [.000]
Tropicana\Vita J 0.003 0.001 [.000]
Tropicana\Welch's 0.018 0.003 [.000]
Tropicana\TroDicana 0.029 0.007 r.0001


! !


L









Table 6-8. Continued
Std.
Category Brands Estimate Error P-value
Florida's Natural\Capri Sun 0.103 0.051 [.046]
Florida's Natural\Gatorade 0.391 0.105 [.000]
Florida's Natural\Minute Maid 0.168 0.053 [.002]
Florida's Natural\POWERade 0.171 0.034 [.000]
Florida's Natural\Snapple 0.047 0.039 [.232]
Minute Maid\Capri Sun 0.125 0.128 [.330]
S Minute Maid\Gatorade 0.330 0.212 [.118]
Minute Maid\Minute Maid -0.038 0.056 [.492]
Minute Maid\POWERade 0.339 0.090 [.000]
S Minute Maid\Snapple -0.128 0.092 [.167]
Tropicana\Capri Sun 0.064 0.012 [.000]
Tropicana\Gatorade 0.130 0.025 [.000]
Tropicana\Minute Maid 0.007 0.005 [.176]
Tropicana\POWERade 0.054 0.008 [.000]
Tropicana\Snapple 0.000 0.007 [.971]









Table 6-9. Fruit juice own and cross category compensated price elasticities for Retailer Z
Std.
Category Brands Estimate Error P-value
Minute Maid\Florida's Natural -0.056 0.111 [.616]
Minute Maid\Minute Maid 0.248 0.105 [.018]
Minute Maid\Tropicana 0.314 0.084 [.000]
Newman's Own\Florida's Natural 1.992 0.475 [.000]
Newman's Own\Minute Maid 1.075 0.323 [.001]
Newman's Own\Tropicana 1.893 0.294 [.000]
Turkey Hill\Florida's Natural 0.389 0.161 [.016]
t Turkey Hill\Minute Maid 0.144 0.106 [.174]
Turkey Hill\Tropicana 0.524 0.093 [.000]
S Vita J\Florida's Natural 0.498 0.234 [.033]
Vita J\Minute Maid 0.142 0.141 [.313]
S Vita J\Tropicana 0.446 0.123 [.000]
Welch' sFlorida's Natural 0.389 0.181 [.032]
Welch's\Minute Maid 0.184 0.139 [.186]
Welch's\Tropicana 0.671 0.112 [.000]
Tropicana\Florida's Natural 0.229 0.075 [.002]
Tropicana\Minute Maid 0.171 0.092 [.064]
Tropicana\Tropicana 0.329 0.073 [.000]
Minute Maid\Minute Maid -2.020 0.153 [.000]
Minute Maid\Newman's Own 0.212 0.093 [.022]
Minute Maid\Turkey Hill 0.042 0.034 [.217]
Minute Maid\Vita J 0.021 0.015 [.145]
Minute Maid\Welch's 0.000 0.059 [.996]
Minute Maid\Tropicana 0.337 0.071 [.000]
Newman's Own\Minute Maid 0.927 0.406 [.022]
S Newman's Own\Newman's Own -8.100 0.643 [.000]
Newman's Own\Turkey Hill 0.061 0.189 [.747]
Newman's Own\Vita J -0.054 0.084 [.519]
Newman's Own\Welch's 1.113 0.290 [.000]
5 Newman's Own\Tropicana 0.293 0.221 [.186]
Turkey Hill\Minute Maid 0.154 0.125 [.217]
Turkey Hill\Newman's Own 0.051 0.158 [.747]
Turkey Hill\Turkey Hill -2.356 0.107 [.000]
Turkey Hill\Vita J 0.054 0.039 [.165]
Turkey Hill\Welch's 0.489 0.105 [.000]
Turkey Hill\Tropicana 0.191 0.072 [.008]









Table 6-9. Continued
Std.
Category Brands Estimate Error P-value
Vita J\Minute Maid 0.260 0.179 [.145]
Vita J\Newman's Own -0.150 0.232 [.519]
Vita J\Turkey Hill 0.179 0.129 [.165]
Vita J\Vita J -0.883 0.128 [.000]
Vita J\Welch's -0.272 0.149 [.067]
Vita J\Tropicana 0.179 0.090 [.048]
Welch' s\Minute Maid 0.001 0.152 [.996]
S Welch' s\Newman's Own 0.658 0.171 [.000]
Welch's\Turkey Hill 0.346 0.074 [.000]
Welch's\Vita J -0.058 0.032 [.067]
Welch's\Welch's -3.589 0.161 [.000]
Welch's\Tropicana 0.292 0.082 [.000]
Tropicana\Minute Maid 0.259 0.055 [.000]
Tropicana\Newman's Own 0.052 0.039 [.186]
Tropicana\Turkey Hill 0.040 0.015 [.008]
Tropicana\Vita J 0.011 0.006 [.048]
Tropicana\Welch's 0.087 0.024 [.000]
Tropicana\Tropicana -1.637 0.080 [.000]
Minute Maid\Capri Sun 0.034 0.069 [.624]
Minute Maid\Gatorade 0.137 0.090 [.128]
Minute Maid\Minute Maid 0.474 0.104 [.000]
Minute Maid\POWERade 0.005 0.109 [.962]
Minute Maid\Snapple 0.251 0.100 [.012]
Newman's Own\Capri Sun 0.743 0.223 [.001]
Newman's Own\Gatorade 1.003 0.277 [.000]
Newman's Own\Minute Maid -0.959 0.522 [.066]
S Newman's Own\POWERade -0.169 0.348 [.627]
Newman's Own\Snapple 0.182 0.329 [.581]
Turkey Hill\Capri Sun 0.261 0.071 [.000]
S Turkey Hill\Gatorade 0.206 0.093 [.027]
S Turkey Hill\Minute Maid -0.185 0.182 [.309]
Turkey Hill\POWERade -0.014 0.104 [.896]
Turkey Hill\Snapple 0.094 0.099 [.343]
Vita J\Capri Sun 0.125 0.092 [.174]
Vita J\Gatorade 0.082 0.118 [.490]
Vita J\Minute Maid -0.440 0.273 [.107]
Vita J\POWERade -0.078 0.157 [.619]









Table 6-9. Continued
Std.
Category Brands Estimate Error P-value
Vita J\Snapple -0.087 0.137 [.528]
Welch's\Capri Sun 0.122 0.088 [.163]
Welch's\Gatorade 0.153 0.126 [.226]
Welch's\Minute Maid -0.005 0.200 [.981]
Welch's\POWERade 0.533 0.129 [.000]
S Welch's\Snapple 0.303 0.123 [.014]
.2 Tropicana\Capri Sun 0.225 0.066 [.001]
S Tropicana\Gatorade -0.126 0.087 [.149]
S Tropicana\Minute Maid 0.147 0.043 [.001]
Tropicana\POWERade 0.047 0.073 [.520]
Tropicana\Snapple 0.166 0.069 [.015]









Table 6-10. Fruit drink own and cross category compensated price elasticities for Retailer Z
Category Brands Estimate Std. Error P-value
Capri Sun\Florida's Natural 0.183 0.092 [.046]
Capri Sun\Minute Maid 0.106 0.109 [.330]
Capri Sun\Tropicana 0.545 0.101 [.000]
Gatorade\Florida's Natural 0.232 0.062 [.000]
5 Gatorade\Minute Maid 0.093 0.060 [.118]
Gatorade\Tropicana 0.370 0.070 [.000]
Minute Maid\Florida's Natural 0.880 0.280 [.002]
Minute Maid\Minute Maid -0.096 0.140 [.492]
Minute Maid\Tropicana 0.171 0.126 [.176]
POWERade\Florida's Natural 1.121 0.223 [.000]
S POWERade\Minute Maid 1.064 0.283 [.000]
POWERade\Tropicana 1.686 0.244 [.000]
Snapple\Florida's Natural 0.146 0.122 [.232]
Snapple\Minute Maid -0.191 0.138 [.167]
Snapple\Tropicana -0.004 0.108 [.971]
Capri Sun\Minute Maid 0.020 0.040 [.624]
Capri Sun\Newman's Own 0.099 0.030 [.001]
Capri Sun\Turkey Hill 0.042 0.011 [.000]
Capri Sun\Vita J 0.006 0.004 [.174]
Capri Sun\Welch's 0.028 0.020 [.163]
Capri Sun\Tropicana 0.171 0.050 [.001]
Gatorade\Minute Maid 0.027 0.017 [.128]
S Gatorade\Newman's Own 0.044 0.012 [.000]
Gatorade\Turkey Hill 0.011 0.005 [.027]
S Gatorade\Vita J 0.001 0.002 [.490]
Gatorade\Welch's 0.011 0.009 [.226]
Gatorade\Tropicana -0.032 0.022 [.149]
Minute Maid\Minute Maid 0.816 0.178 [.000]
Minute Maid\Newman's Own -0.377 0.205 [.066]
Minute Maid\Turkey Hill -0.087 0.085 [.309]
Minute Maid\Vita J -0.062 0.039 [.107]
Minute Maid\Welch's -0.003 0.133 [.981]
Minute Maid\Tropicana 0.328 0.097 [.001]
POWERade\Minute Maid 0.011 0.234 [.962]
POWERade\Newman's Own -0.083 0.171 [.627]
POWERade\Turkey Hill -0.008 0.061 [.896]
POWERade\Vita J -0.014 0.028 [.619]









Table 6-10. Continued
Category Brands


Estimate Std. Error P-value


POWERade\Welch's
POWERade\Tropicana
Snapple\Minute Maid
Snapple\Newman's Own
Snapple\Turkey Hill
Snapple\Vita J
Snapple\Welch's
Snapple\Tropicana
Capri Sun\Capri Sun
Capri Sun\Gatorade
Capri Sun\Minute Maid
Capri Sun\POWERade
Capri Sun\Snapple
Gatorade\Capri Sun
Gatorade\Gatorade
Gatorade\Minute Maid
Gatorade\POWERade
Gatorade\Snapple
Minute Maid\Capri Sun
Minute Maid\Gatorade
Minute Maid\Minute Maid
Minute Maid\POWERade
Minute Maid\Snapple
POWERade\Capri Sun
POWERade\Gatorade
POWERade\Minute Maid
POWERade\POWERade
POWERade\Snapple
Snapple\Capri Sun
Snapple\Gatorade
Snapple\Minute Maid
Snapple\POWERade
Snapple\Snapple


0.444
0.131
0.257
0.043
0.026
-0.007
0.120
0.221
-1.996
0.661
0.106
0.093
-0.063
0.219
-1.094
0.032
0.068
0.017
0.313
0.282
-1.474
-0.055
-0.636
0.342
0.752
-0.069
-5.312
-0.064
-0.111
0.091
-0.379
-0.031
-0.531


0.107 [.000]
0.204 [.520]
0.102 [.012]
0.077 [.581]
0.028 [.343]
0.012 [.528]
0.049 [.014]
0.091 [.015]
0.123 [.000]
0.121 [.000]
0.032 [.001]
0.058 [.109]
0.056 [.255]
0.040 [.000]
0.105 [.000]
0.014 [.019]
0.023 [.003]
0.025 [.484]
0.094 [.001]
0.120 [.019]
0.340 [.000]
0.143 [.699]
0.141 [.000]
0.213 [.109]
0.253 [.003]
0.178 [.699]
0.400 [.000]
0.305 [.834]
0.098 [.255]
0.131 [.484]
0.084 [.000]
0.145 [.834]
0.311 [.088]









CHAPTER 7
CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS

The Rotterdam model developed by Theil and Barten was used to estimate the demand

interrelationship between brands of orange juice, fruit juice, and fruit drinks. The study used

aggregate store level scanner data containing weekly sales, price, and promotional information on all

individual brands. These data were used to test for separability within the fruit juice market and to

evaluate the impact of promotional strategies on the fruit juice/drink demand. Block-wise

separability is a form of weak separability that imposes restrictions on consumer behavior limiting

the degree of substitution between goods in different groups. Results from the separability tests

carried out in this study reject the hypothesis of block-wise dependence suggesting that the marginal

utility of orange juice is impacted by changes in fruit juice and fruit drink expenditures and

consumption. The impact of promotional strategies on the demand for brands within the fruit

juice market was also evaluated in this study. Results indicate that displays combined with

feature advertisements had the largest impact on the demand for the beverages studied.

Compensated price elasticities and income elasticities suggest that consumers have a

stronger preference for fruit drink beverages. Thus, increases in consumers' expenditures would

increase the demand for brands in this category at the expense of orange juice beverages.

Additionally, the cross price elasticities for orange juice given a price change in fruit juices and

fruit juices given a price change in orange juice were asymmetric. Fruit juice and fruit drinks

were more responsive to price changes of brands of orange juice than orange juice brands were

to price changes in either fruit juices or fruit drinks. The results also suggest that the majority of

the cross price elasticities were in the inelastic range. Based upon these results, one can

concluded that competition within fruit juice market in not restricted to competition within









groups. In fact, fruit drinks and orange juice seem to be major competitors and price shocks and

decreases in orange juice supply causes the demand for this fruit drinks to increase.

This study also assessed the impact of retail promotional strategies on the demand for various

brands of orange juice, fruit juice, and fruit drinks at two retailers with different pricing

philosophies. Store level elasticities differ because consumers respond to retailing policies across

stores. Retailer X competes on quality rather than price and Retail Z is a discount retailer.

Coefficients for all promotional tactics, display only, feature only, and display with feature, are

all positive. Promotional elasticities explain the impact of increasing the promotional activity of

good on the demand for good i. Shoppers at Retailer Z were more deal sensitive than shoppers

at Retailer X. This is expected since Retailer Z is discount retailer and attracts consumers that

are search of a deal. Hoch et al. (1995) suggest that elasticity measures are closely related to the

characteristics of the consumers and the competitive environment. Despite this difference in

magnitude of elasticities, the overall impact of promotions on demand is relatively the same. For

both retailers the promotional elasticities were the in elastic range. Since consumers view

beverage products as necessities consumers will purchase the goods regardless of a deal.

Therefore, retailers may promote beverages as a means of increasing store traffic and increasing

store revenue by using a loss leader strategy. The beverage promotions may entice the consumer

to the store and the retailer increases it profits when the shopper purchases other full margin

products. Additionally, the maturity of fruit juice market and the popularity of brands included

in the study may contribute to the inelastic finding. Previous research suggests that higher

market share brands possess lower deal elasticities. This study focuses on brands that control at

least 5 % of the market share in their respective markets. This study suggests that retail

promotions do not result into large increases in demand, but it does not suggest that retail









promotion do not increase store sales. To assess the impact of promotions on the retailer, future

research can evaluate the manner in which store revenue changes in response to promotions.

Since brands of orange juice, fruit juice, and fruit drinks are all competing for a portion of

consumers' beverage expenditures orange juice manufacturers must survey the complete

beverage landscape in order to develop an effective marketing plan that will increase its brands

market share. The orange juice industry must pay particular attention to the single serve brands

and isotonics which have adverse effects on the demand for orange juice. Promotional strategies

were found to have minimal impacts on demand for fruit juices. Future research should include

a lag effect to observe stockpiling and switching behavior caused by retail promotions.

As block-wise dependence is rejected, it is not plausible to believe that block

independence, a stronger hypothesis will hold. Thus, when analyzing the demand for beverages,

brand managers should not focus solely other breakfast juices or other isotonics, but one must

focus on all beverages simultaneously. Compensated price elasticities indicate that orange

juices, fruit juices, and fruit drinks are substitutes. Since separability among selected fruit juice

categories is rejected, future research should test separability of fruit juice, water, and carbonated

drinks to fully understand the beverage industry.









APPENDIX A
PARAMETER ESTIMATES FOR SEPARABILITY MODEL

Table A-1. Marginal propensity to consume estimates


Categories


Brands
Florida's Natural
Minute Maid
Private Label
Tropicana
Minute Maid
Private Label
Sunny D
Tropicana
Welch's
Capri Sun
Gatorade
Hi C
POWERade
Sunny D
Tropicana


Estimate
0.026
0.085
0.082
0.159
0.040
0.002
0.009
0.024
0.016
0.091
0.344
0.023
0.056
0.013
0.069


Std. Error
0.017
0.013
0.012
0.024
0.005
0.001
0.001
0.003
0.003
0.011
0.024
0.007
0.005
0.003
0.009


P-value
[.132]
[.000]
[.000]
[.000]
[.000]
[.057]
[.000]
[.000]
[.000]
[.000]
[.000]
[.001]
[.000]
[.000]
[.ooo00









Table A-2. Separability model Slutsky coefficients
Std.
Brands Estimate Error P-value
Florida's Natural (OJ)/Florida's Natural -0.200 0.015 [.000]
Florida's Natural (OJ)/Minute Maid (OJ) 0.037 0.010 [.000]
Florida's Natural (OJ)/Private Label (OJ) 0.017 0.010 [.093]
Florida's Natural (OJ)/Tropicana (OJ) 0.089 0.014 [.000]
Florida's Natural (OJ)/Minute Maid (FJ) 0.008 0.004 [.051]
Florida's Natural (OJ)/Private Label (FJ) -0.001 0.001 [.484]
Florida's Natural (OJ)/Sunny D (FJ) 0.001 0.001 [.452]
Florida's Natural (OJ)/Tropicana (FJ) 0.007 0.003 [.018]
Florida's Natural (OJ)/Welch's (FJ) 0.004 0.002 [.062]
Florida's Natural (OJ)/Capri Sun (FD) 0.011 0.009 [.199]
Florida's Natural (OJ)/Gatorade (FD) 0.004 0.012 [.727]
Florida's Natural (OJ)/Hi C (FD) 0.002 0.006 [.721]
Florida's Natural (OJ)/POWERade (FD) 0.005 0.004 [.185]
Florida's Natural (OJ)/Sunny D (FD) 0.002 0.002 [.358]
Florida's Natural (OJ)/Tropicana (FD) 0.013 0.007 [.055]
Minute Maid (OJ)/Minute Maid (OJ) -0.216 0.013 [.000]
Minute Maid (OJ)/Private Label (OJ) 0.018 0.010 [.061]
Minute Maid (OJ)/Tropicana (OJ) 0.087 0.012 [.000]
Minute Maid (OJ)/Minute Maid (FJ) 0.010 0.005 [.037]
Minute Maid (OJ)/Private Label (FJ) -0.0001 0.001 [.911]
Minute Maid (OJ)/Sunny D (FJ) 0.001 0.001 [.377]
Minute Maid (OJ)/Tropicana (FJ) 0.005 0.003 [.106]
Minute Maid (OJ)/Welch's (FJ) 0.006 0.003 [.033]
Minute Maid (OJ)/Capri Sun (FD) 0.030 0.009 [.000]
Minute Maid (OJ)/Gatorade (FD) 0.024 0.010 [.015]
Minute Maid (OJ)/Hi C (FD) -0.005 0.007 [.401]
Minute Maid (OJ)/POWERade (FD) 0.001 0.004 [.737]
Minute Maid (OJ)/Sunny D (FD) 0.008 0.003 [.001]
Minute Maid (OJ)/Tropicana (FD) -0.007 0.008 [.391]
Private Label (OJ)/Private Label (OJ) -0.171 0.015 [.000]
Private Label (OJ)/Tropicana (OJ) 0.051 0.012 [.000]
Private Label (OJ)/Minute Maid (FJ) 0.003 0.003 [.271]
Private Label (OJ)/Private Label (FJ) 0.001 0.001 [.451]
Private Label (OJ)/Sunny D (FJ) 0.004 0.002 [.017]
Private Label (OJ)/Tropicana (FJ) 0.004 0.004 [.284]
Private Label (OJ)/Welch's (FJ) 0.005 0.004 [.138]
Private Label (OJ)/Capri Sun (FD) 0.005 0.009 [.558]
Private Label (OJ)/Gatorade (FD) 0.033 0.009 [.000]









Table A-2. Continued
Std.
Brands Estimate Error P-value
Private Label (OJ)/Hi C (FD) 0.031 0.008 [.000]
Private Label (OJ)/POWERade (FD) -0.003 0.005 [.535]
Private Label (OJ)/Sunny D (FD) 0.010 0.003 [.000]
Private Label (OJ)/Tropicana (FD) -0.008 0.009 [.387]
Tropicana (OJ)/Tropicana (OJ) -0.433 0.025 [.000]
Tropicana (OJ)/Minute Maid (FJ) 0.015 0.005 [.002]
Tropicana (OJ)/Private Label (FJ) 0.0001 0.001 [.915]
Tropicana (OJ)/Sunny D (FJ) 0.004 0.001 [.010]
Tropicana (OJ)/Tropicana (FJ) 0.004 0.004 [.244]
Tropicana (OJ)/Welch's (FJ) 0.007 0.003 [.026]
Tropicana (OJ)/Capri Sun (FD) 0.041 0.010 [.000]
Tropicana (OJ)/Gatorade (FD) 0.065 0.017 [.000]
Tropicana (OJ)/Hi C (FD) 0.031 0.007 [.000]
Tropicana (OJ)/POWERade (FD) 0.020 0.005 [.000]
Tropicana (OJ)/Sunny D (FD) 0.006 0.003 [.016]
Tropicana (OJ)/Tropicana (FD) 0.013 0.009 [.132]
Minute Maid (FJ)/Minute Maid (FJ) -0.054 0.005 [.000]
Minute Maid (FJ)/Private Label (FJ) 0.001 0.001 [.112]
Minute Maid (FJ)/Sunny D (FJ) -0.001 0.001 [.426]
Minute Maid (FJ)/Tropicana (FJ) 0.005 0.003 [.133]
Minute Maid (FJ)/Welch's (FJ) 0.010 0.003 [.001]
Minute Maid (FJ)/Capri Sun (FD) 0.011 0.005 [.014]
Minute Maid (FJ)/Gatorade (FD) 0.015 0.004 [.000]
Minute Maid (FJ)/Hi C (FD) -0.016 0.006 [.008]
Minute Maid (FJ)/POWERade (FD) -0.007 0.003 [.040]
Minute Maid (FJ)/Sunny D (FD) 0.006 0.002 [.002]
Minute Maid (FJ)/Tropicana (FD) -0.007 0.006 [.272]
Private Label (FJ)/Private Label (FJ) -0.008 0.000 [.000]
Private Label (FJ)/Sunny D (FJ) 0.002 0.001 [.003]
Private Label (FJ)/Tropicana (FJ) 0.002 0.001 [.000]
Private Label (FJ)/Welch's (FJ) -0.001 0.001 [.214]
Private Label (FJ)/Capri Sun (FD) -0.001 0.001 [.430]
Private Label (FJ)/Gatorade (FD) -0.001 0.001 [.415]
Private Label (FJ)/Hi C (FD) 0.005 0.001 [.000]
Private Label(FJ)/POWERade (FD) 0.0004 0.001 [.492]
Private Label (FJ)/Sunny D (FD) -0.003 0.001 [.000]
Private Label (FJ)/Tropicana (FD) 0.002 0.001 [.147]
Sunny D (FJ)/Sunny D (FJ) -0.021 0.002 [.000]









Table A-2. Continued
Std.
Brands Estimate Error P-value
Sunny D (FJ)/Tropicana (FJ) 0.002 0.001 [.089]
Sunny D (FJ)/Welch's (FJ) -0.002 0.002 [.187]
Sunny D (FJ)/Capri Sun (FD) 0.000 0.001 [.888]
Sunny D (FJ)/Gatorade (FD) 0.002 0.001 [.045]
Sunny D (FJ)/Hi C (FD) 0.007 0.002 [.002]
Sunny D (FJ)/POWERade (FD) -0.001 0.001 [.469]
Sunny D (FJ)/Sunny D (FD) 0.000 0.002 [.850]
Sunny D (FJ)/Tropicana (FD) 0.003 0.002 [.102]
Tropicana (FJ)/Tropicana (FJ) -0.052 0.003 [.000]
Tropicana (FJ)/Welch's (FJ) 0.002 0.002 [.502]
Tropicana (FJ)/Capri Sun (FD) 0.011 0.003 [.001]
Tropicana (FJ)/Gatorade (FD) 0.010 0.003 [.000]
Tropicana (FJ)/Hi C (FD) 0.004 0.004 [.339]
Tropicana (FJ)/POWERade (FD) -0.009 0.002 [.000]
Tropicana (FJ)/Sunny D (FD) 0.001 0.001 [.431]
Tropicana (FJ)/Tropicana (FD) 0.004 0.005 [.409]
Welch's (FJ)/Welch's (FJ) -0.042 0.004 [.000]
Welch's (FJ)/Capri Sun (FD) 0.004 0.003 [.162]
Welch's (FJ)/Gatorade (FD) 0.004 0.002 [.078]
Welch's (FJ)/Hi C (FD) 0.006 0.005 [.210]
Welch's (FJ)/POWERade (FD) -0.004 0.002 [.083]
Welch's (FJ)/Sunny D (FD) 0.001 0.002 [.546]
Welch's (FJ)/Tropicana (FD) 0.001 0.004 [.826]
Capri Sun (FD)/Capri Sun (FD) -0.182 0.011 [.000]
Capri Sun (FD)/Gatorade (FD) 0.034 0.008 [.000]
Capri Sun (FD)/Hi C (FD) 0.024 0.007 [.000]
Capri Sun (FD)/POWERade (FD) 0.009 0.004 [.035]
Capri Sun (FD)/Sunny D (FD) 0.008 0.002 [.001]
Capri Sun (FD)/Tropicana (FD) -0.006 0.008 [.408]
Gatorade (FD)/Gatorade (FD) -0.217 0.019 [.000]
Gatorade (FD)/Hi C (FD) 0.008 0.005 [.115]
Gatorade (FD)/POWERade (FD) 0.019 0.004 [.000]
Gatorade (FD)/Sunny D (FD) 0.001 0.002 [.521]
Gatorade (FD)/Tropicana (FD) -0.001 0.007 [.923]
Hi C (FD)/Hi C (FD) -0.134 0.013 [.000]
Hi C (FD)/POWERade (FD) 0.012 0.005 [.022]
Hi C (FD)/Sunny D (FD) 0.010 0.003 [.003]
Hi C (FD)/Tropicana (FD) 0.016 0.009 [.072]









Table A-2. Continued
Std.
Brands Estimate Error P-value
POWERade (FD)/POWERade (FD) -0.051 0.004 [.000]
POWERade (FD)/Sunny D (FD) -0.007 0.002 [.000]
POWERade (FD)/Tropicana (FD) 0.016 0.005 [.003]
Sunny D (FD)/Sunny D (FD) -0.041 0.002 [.000]
Sunny D (FD)/Tropicana (FD) -0.003 0.003 [.323]
Tropicana (FD)/Tropicana (FD) -0.036 0.013 [.006]









APPENDIX B
PARAMETER ESTIMATES AND PROMOTIONAL ELASTICITIES FOR RETAILER X


Table B-1. Marginal Expenditure Shares
Category Brands
a Private Label
O Minute Maid
O Tropicana
Private Label
.2 Welch's
Sunny D
Minute Maid
Tropicana
Sunny D
JS Capri Sun
S Kool-Aid
S Gatorade
POWERade
Private Label


Estimate
0.098
0.058
0.127
0.004
0.019
0.017
0.038
0.008
0.026
0.091
0.051
0.373
0.047
0.042


Std. Error
0.013
0.012
0.015
0.001
0.003
0.003
0.003
0.001
0.008
0.013
0.007
0.035
0.008
0.005


P-Value
[.000]
[.000]
[.000]
[.000]
[.000]
[.000]
[.000]
[.000]
[.001]
[.000]
[.000]
[.000]
[.000]
[.000]









Table B-2. Parameter Estimates
Brands Estimate Std. Error P-value
Display 0.001 0.000 [.000]
Feature 0.0002 0.000 [.001]
Feature & Display 0.002 0.000 [.000]
RHO 0.917 0.014 [.000]
Private Label (OJ)/Private Label (OJ) -0.176 0.006 [.000]
Private Label (OJ) /Minute Maid (OJ) 0.041 0.004 [.000]
Private Label(OJ)/Tropicana (OJ) 0.044 0.004 [.000]
Private Label (OJ)/Private Label (FJ) -0.002 0.001 [.082]
Private Label (OJ)/Welch's (FJ) 0.007 0.002 [.000]
Private Label (OJ)/Sunny Delight (FJ) 0.005 0.002 [.001]
Private Label (OJ)/Minute Maid (FJ) 0.010 0.002 [.000]
Private Label (OJ)/Tropicana (FJ) 0.002 0.001 [.058]
Private Label (OJ)/Sunny Delight (FD) 0.013 0.003 [.000]
Private Label (OJ)/Capri Sun (FD) 0.008 0.004 [.045]
Private Label (OJ)/Kool-Aid (FD) 0.009 0.003 [.001]
Private Label (OJ)/Gatorade (FD) 0.029 0.006 [.000]
Private Label (OJ)/POWERade(FD) 0.011 0.004 [.003]
Private Label (OJ)/Private Label (FD) -0.003 0.003 [.435]
Minute Maid (OJ) /Minute Maid (OJ) -0.194 0.006 [.000]
Minute Maid (OJ)/Tropicana (OJ) 0.053 0.004 [.000]
Minute Maid (OJ)/Private Label (FJ) 0.002 0.000 [.000]
Minute Maid (OJ)/Welch's (FJ) 0.003 0.001 [.017]
Minute Maid (OJ)/Sunny Delight (FJ) 0.006 0.001 [.000]
Minute Maid (OJ)/Minute Maid (FJ) 0.014 0.002 [.000]
Minute Maid (OJ)/Tropicana (FJ) 0.003 0.001 [.000]
Minute Maid (OJ)/Sunny Delight (FD) 0.006 0.002 [.008]
Minute Maid (OJ)/Capri Sun (FD) 0.023 0.004 [.000]
Minute Maid (OJ)/Kool-Aid (FD) 0.010 0.003 [.000]
Minute Maid (OJ)/Gatorade (FD) 0.017 0.005 [.001]
Minute Maid (OJ)/POWERade(FD) 0.010 0.003 [.002]
Minute Maid (OJ)/Private Label (FD) 0.006 0.002 [.004]
Tropicana (OJ)/Tropicana (OJ) -0.235 0.007 [.000]
Tropicana (OJ)/Private Label (FJ) 0.002 0.000 [.000]
Tropicana (OJ)/Welch's (FJ) 0.008 0.001 [.000]
Tropicana (OJ)/Sunny Delight (FJ) 0.007 0.001 [.000]
Tropicana (OJ)/Minute Maid (FJ) 0.015 0.001 [.000]









Table B-2. Continued
Brands
Tropicana (OJ)/Tropicana (FJ)
Tropicana (OJ)/Sunny Delight (FD)
Tropicana (OJ)/Capri Sun (FD)
Tropicana (OJ)/Kool-Aid (FD)
Tropicana (OJ)/Gatorade (FD)
Tropicana (OJ)/POWERade(FD)
Tropicana (OJ)/Private Label (FD)
Private Label (FJ)/Private Label (FJ)
Private Label (FJ)/Welch's (FJ)
Private Label (FJ)/Sunny Delight (FJ)
Private Label (FJ)/Minute Maid (FJ)
Private Label (FJ)/Tropicana (FJ)
Private Label (FJ)/Sunny Delight (FD)
Private Label (FJ)/Capri Sun (FD)
Private Label (FJ)/Kool-Aid (FD)
Private Label (FJ)/Gatorade (FD)
Private Label (FJ)/POWERade(FD)
Private Label (FJ)/Private Label (FD)
Welch's (FJ)/Welch's (FJ)
Welch's (FJ)/Sunny Delight (FJ)
Welch's (FJ)/Minute Maid (FJ)
Welch's (FJ)/Tropicana (FJ)
Welch's (FJ)/Sunny Delight (FD)
Welch's (FJ)/Capri Sun (FD)
Welch's (FJ)/Kool-Aid (FD)
Welch's (FJ)/Gatorade (FD)
Welch's (FJ)/POWERade(FD)
Welch's (FJ)/Private Label (FD)
Sunny Delight (FJ)/Sunny Delight (FJ)
Sunny Delight (FJ)/Minute Maid (FJ)
Sunny Delight (FJ)/Tropicana (FJ)
Sunny Delight (FJ)/Sunny Delight (FD)
Sunny Delight (FJ)/Capri Sun (FD)
Sunny Delight (FJ)/Kool-Aid (FD)
Sunny Delight (FJ)/Gatorade (FD)
Sunny Delight (FJ)/POWERade(FD)
Sunny Delight (FJ)/Private Label (FD)


Estimate Std. Error
-0.006 0.001
0.012 0.003
0.027 0.004
0.015 0.002
0.038 0.006
0.014 0.003
0.006 0.002
-0.007 0.001
0.002 0.001
-0.002 0.001
-0.001 0.001
0.000 0.001
0.003 0.001
0.001 0.000
0.000 0.001
0.002 0.000
0.000 0.001
0.000 0.002
-0.054 0.002
0.003 0.002
0.009 0.002
0.002 0.001
-0.001 0.002
0.004 0.001
-0.003 0.002
0.007 0.001
0.009 0.002
0.006 0.003
-0.033 0.003
-0.001 0.001
0.000 0.001
0.001 0.004
0.002 0.001
-0.004 0.002
0.006 0.001
0.003 0.001
0.007 0.003


P-value
[.000]
[.000]
[.000]
[.000]
[.000]
[.000]
[.003]
[.000]
[.003]
[.058]
[.257]
[.737]
[.016]
[.102]
[.813]
[.000]
[.932]
[.933]
[.000]
[.096]
[.000]
[.073]
[.780]
[.003]
[.147]
[.000]
[.000]
[.057]
[.000]
[.638]
[.835]
[.814]
[.035]
[.031]
[.000]
[.057]
[.033]









Table B-2. Continued
Brands Estimate Std. Error P-value
Minute Maid (FJ)/Minute Maid (FJ) -0.090 0.002 [.000]
Minute Maid (FJ)/Tropicana (FJ) 0.002 0.001 [.016]
Minute Maid (FJ)/Sunny Delight (FD) 0.007 0.002 [.000]
Minute Maid (FJ)/Capri Sun (FD) 0.005 0.001 [.000]
Minute Maid (FJ)/Kool-Aid (FD) 0.003 0.002 [.224]
Minute Maid (FJ)/Gatorade (FD) 0.011 0.001 [.000]
Minute Maid (FJ)/POWERade(FD) 0.010 0.002 [.000]
Minute Maid (FJ)/Private Label (FD) 0.006 0.003 [.039]
Tropicana (FJ)/Tropicana (FJ) -0.015 0.001 [.000]
Tropicana (FJ)/Sunny Delight (FD) 0.001 0.002 [.469]
Tropicana (FJ)/Capri Sun (FD) 0.002 0.001 [.003]
Tropicana (FJ)/Kool-Aid (FD) 0.004 0.001 [.000]
Tropicana (FJ)/Gatorade (FD) 0.002 0.001 [.001]
Tropicana (FJ)/POWERade(FD) 0.001 0.001 [.249]
Tropicana (FJ)/Private Label (FD) 0.003 0.002 [.236]
Sunny Delight (FD)/Sunny Delight (FD) -0.075 0.005 [.000]
Sunny Delight (FD)/Capri Sun (FD) 0.009 0.003 [.000]
Sunny Delight (FD)/Kool-Aid (FD) 0.014 0.003 [.000]
Sunny Delight (FD)/Gatorade (FD) 0.007 0.003 [.038]
Sunny Delight (FD)/POWERade(FD) 0.005 0.003 [.076]
Sunny Delight (FD)/Private Label (FD) -0.002 0.004 [.692]
Capri Sun (FD)/Capri Sun (FD) -0.126 0.006 [.000]
Capri Sun (FD)/Kool-Aid (FD) 0.001 0.003 [.653]
Capri Sun (FD)/Gatorade (FD) 0.022 0.005 [.000]
Capri Sun (FD)/POWERade(FD) 0.011 0.003 [.001]
Capri Sun (FD)/Private Label (FD) 0.012 0.002 [.000]
Kool-Aid (FD)/Kool-Aid (FD) -0.074 0.005 [.000]
Kool-Aid (FD)/Gatorade (FD) 0.014 0.003 [.000]
Kool-Aid (FD)/POWERade(FD) 0.006 0.003 [.073]
Kool-Aid (FD)/Private Label (FD) 0.005 0.004 [.212]
Gatorade (FD)/Gatorade (FD) -0.182 0.015 [.000]
Gatorade (FD)/POWERade(FD) 0.015 0.003 [.000]
Gatorade (FD)/Private Label (FD) 0.012 0.002 [.000]
POWERade (FD)/POWERade(FD) -0.096 0.006 [.000]
POWERade (FD)/Private Label (FD) 0.002 0.003 [.538]
Private Label (FD)/Private Label (FD) -0.050 0.010 [.000]









Table B-3. Orange juice display elasticities with respect to other beverages
Category Brands Estimate Std. Error P-Value
Private Label/Private Label 0.020 0.003 [.000]
Private Label/Minute Maid -0.005 0.001 [.000]
o Private Label/Tropicana -0.005 0.001 [.000]
Minute Maid/Private Label -0.004 0.001 [.000]
O
S Minute Maid/Minute Maid 0.017 0.002 [.000]
S Minute Maid/Tropicana -0.005 0.001 [.000]
Tropicana/Private Label -0.005 0.001 [.000]
Tropicana/Minute Maid -0.005 0.001 [.000]
S Tropicana/Tropicana 0.024 0.003 [.000]
Private Label/Private Label 0.000 0.000 [.094]
Private Label/Welch's -0.001 0.000 [.000]
Private Label/Sunny Delight -0.001 0.000 [.003]
Private Label/Minute Maid -0.001 0.000 [.000]
Private Label/Tropicana 0.000 0.000 [.065]
Minute Maid/Private Label 0.000 0.000 [.000]
Minute Maid/Welch's 0.000 0.000 [.022]
8 Minute Maid/Sunny Delight -0.001 0.000 [.000]
Minute Maid/Minute Maid -0.001 0.000 [.000]
^ Minute Maid/Tropicana 0.000 0.000 [.000]
0 Tropicana/Private Label 0.000 0.000 [.000]
Tropicana/Welch's -0.001 0.000 [.000]
Tropicana/Sunny Delight -0.001 0.000 [.000]
Tropicana/Minute Maid -0.002 0.000 [.000]
Tropicana/Tropicana 0.001 0.000 [.000]









Table B-3. Continued
Category Brands Estimate Std. Error P-Value
Private/Sunny Delight -0.001 0.000 [.000]
Private/Capri Sun -0.001 0.000 [.057]
Private/Kool-Aid -0.001 0.000 [.004]
Private/Gatorade -0.003 0.001 [.000]
Private/POWERade -0.001 0.000 [.006]
Private/Private 0.000 0.000 [.438]
S Minute Maid/Sunny Delight -0.001 0.000 [.015]
S Minute Maid/Capri Sun -0.002 0.000 [.000]
Minute Maid/Kool-Aid -0.001 0.000 [.001]
Minute Maid/Gatorade -0.002 0.000 [.002]
Minute Maid/POWERade -0.001 0.000 [.005]
Minute Maid/Private -0.001 0.000 [.008]
Tropicana/Sunny Delight -0.001 0.000 [.000]
Tropicana/Capri Sun -0.003 0.001 [.000]
Tropicana/Kool-Aid -0.001 0.000 [.000]
Tropicana/Gatorade -0.004 0.001 [.000]
Tropicana/POWERade -0.001 0.000 [.000]
Tropicana/Private -0.001 0.000 [.006]









Table B-4. Fruit Juice display elasticities with respect to other beverages
Category Brands Estimate Std. Error P-Value
Private/Private 0.001 0.000 [.094]
Private/Minute Maid -0.001 0.000 [.000]
Private/Tropicana -0.001 0.000 [.000]
Welch's/Private 0.000 0.000 [.000]
Welch's/Minute Maid 0.000 0.000 [.022]
S Welch's/Tropicana 0.000 0.000 [.000]
S Sunny Delight/Private -0.004 0.002 [.003]
S Sunny Delight/Minute Maid -0.005 0.001 [.000]
.2 Sunny Delight/Tropicana -0.006 0.001 [.000]
Minute Maid/Private -0.002 0.001 [.000]
S Minute Maid/Minute Maid -0.003 0.001 [.000]
Minute Maid/Tropicana -0.004 0.001 [.000]
Tropicana/Private -0.001 0.000 [.065]
Tropicana/Minute Maid -0.001 0.000 [.000]
Tropicana/Tropicana 0.002 0.000 [.000]
Private Label/Private Label 0.003 0.001 [.000]
Private Label/Welch's -0.001 0.000 [.007]
Private Label/Sunny Delight 0.001 0.001 [.068]
Private Label/Minute Maid 0.000 0.000 [.264]
S Private Label/Tropicana 0.000 0.000 [.738]
Welch's/Private Label 0.000 0.000 [.007]
Welch's/Welch's 0.003 0.000 [.000]
Welch's/Sunny Delight 0.000 0.000 [.106]
S Welch's/Minute Maid 0.000 0.000 [.000]
Welch's/Tropicana 0.000 0.000 [.081]
Sunny Delight/Private Label 0.002 0.001 [.068]
Sunny Delight/Welch's -0.002 0.001 [.106]
Sunny Delight/Sunny Delight 0.027 0.005 [.000]
Sunny Delight/Minute Maid 0.001 0.001 [.639]
Sunny Delight/Tropicana 0.000 0.001 [.835]









Table B-4. Continued
Category Brands
Minute Maid/Private Label
Minute Maid/Welch's
S Minute Maid/Sunny Delight
Minute Maid/Minute Maid
Minute Maid/Tropicana
.8 Tropicana/Private Label
Tropicana/Welch's
5 Tropicana/Sunny Delight
Tropicana/Minute Maid
Tropicana/Tropicana
Private Label/Sunny Delight
Private Label/Capri Sun
Private Label/Kool-Aid
Private Label/Gatorade
Private Label/POWERade
Private Label/Private Label
Welch's/Sunny Delight
Welch's/Capri Sun
Welch's/Kool-Aid
Welch's/Gatorade
Welch's/POWERade
S Welch's/Private Label
C. Sunny Delight/Sunny Delight
Sunny Delight/Capri Sun
Sunny Delight/Kool-Aid
Sunny Delight/Gatorade
Sunny Delight/POWERade
Sunny Delight/Private Label
Minute Maid/Sunny Delight
Minute Maid/Capri Sun
Minute Maid/Kool-Aid
Minute Maid/Gatorade
Minute Maid/POWERade
Minute Maid/Private Label


Estimate
0.000
-0.002
0.000
0.023
0.000
0.000
-0.001
0.000
-0.001
0.005
-0.001
0.000
0.000
-0.001
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
-0.001
-0.002
0.003
-0.005
-0.002
-0.006
-0.002
-0.001
-0.001
-0.003
-0.003
-0.002


Std. Error
0.000
0.001
0.000
0.003
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.001
0.000
0.001
0.001
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.001
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.003
0.001
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.003
0.001
0.000
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001


P-Value
[.264]
[.000]
[.639]
[.000]
[.042]
[.738]
[.081]
[.835]
[.042]
[.000]
[.023]
[.108]
[.814]
[.000]
[.932]
[.933]
[.781]
[.005]
[.151]
[.000]
[.000]
[.063]
[.814]
[.043]
[.041]
[.000]
[.068]
[.043]
[.001]
[.003]
[.157]
[.000]
[.000]
[.041]









Table B-4. Continued
Category Brands Estimate Std. Error P-Value
Tropicana/Sunny Delight -0.001 0.001 [.304]
Tropicana/Capri Sun -0.001 0.000 [.005]
8 Tropicana/Kool-Aid -0.001 0.000 [.004]
2 Tropicana/Gatorade -0.001 0.000 [.001]
S Tropicana/POWERade 0.000 0.000 [.269]
Tropicana/Private Label -0.001 0.001 [.473]









Table B-5. Fruit Drink display elasticities with respect to other beverages
Category Brands Estimate Std. Error P-Value
Sunny Delight/Private Label -0.011 0.003 [.000]
Sunny Delight/Minute Maid -0.005 0.002 [.015]
Sunny Delight/Tropicana -0.009 0.003 [.000]
Capri Sun/Private Label -0.004 0.002 [.057]
Capri Sun/Minute Maid -0.011 0.002 [.000]
SCapri Sun/Tropicana -0.012 0.002 [.000]
Kool-Aid/Private Label -0.004 0.001 [.004]
S Kool-Aid/Minute Maid -0.004 0.001 [.001]
Kool-Aid/Tropicana -0.006 0.001 [.000]
Gatorade/Private Label -0.010 0.003 [.000]
Gatorade/Minute Maid -0.006 0.002 [.002]
S Gatorade/Tropicana -0.013 0.003 [.000]
4 POWERade/Private Label -0.007 0.002 [.006]
POWERade/Minute Maid -0.006 0.002 [.005]
POWERade/Tropicana -0.008 0.002 [.000]
Private Label/Private Label 0.001 0.002 [.438]
Private Label/Minute Maid -0.003 0.001 [.008]
Private Label/Tropicana -0.003 0.001 [.006]
Sunny Delight/Private Label -0.003 0.001 [.023]
Sunny Delight/Welch's 0.000 0.002 [.781]
Sunny Delight/Sunny Delight -0.001 0.003 [.814]
Sunny Delight/Minute Maid -0.005 0.002 [.001]
S Sunny Delight/Tropicana -0.001 0.001 [.304]
S Capri Sun/Private Label 0.000 0.000 [.108]
Capri Sun/Welch's -0.002 0.001 [.005]
Capri Sun/Sunny Delight -0.001 0.001 [.043]
S Capri Sun/Minute Maid -0.002 0.001 [.003]
Capri Sun/Tropicana -0.001 0.000 [.005]
S Kool-Aid/Private Label 0.000 0.000 [.814]
Kool-Aid/Welch's 0.001 0.001 [.151]
Kool-Aid/Sunny Delight 0.002 0.001 [.041]
Kool-Aid/Minute Maid -0.001 0.001 [.157]
Kool-Aid/Tropicana -0.002 0.001 [.004]









Table B-5. Continued
Category Brands
Gatorade/Private Label
Gatorade/Welch' s
Gatorade/Sunny Delight
Gatorade/Minute Maid
S Gatorade/Tropicana
POWERade/Privat Label
S POWERade/Welch's
POWERade/Sunny Delight
S POWERade/Minute Maid
POWERade/Tropicana
S Private Label/Private Label
Private Label/Welch's
Private Label/Sunny Delight
Private Label/Minute Maid
Private Label/Tropicana
Sunny Delight/Sunny Delight
Sunny Delight/Capri Sun
Sunny Delight/Kool-Aid
Sunny Delight/Gatorade
Sunny Delight/POWERade
Sunny Delight/Private Label
Capri Sun/Sunny Delight
Capri Sun/Capri Sun
Capri Sun/Kool-Aid
Capri Sun/Gatorade
S Capri Sun/POWERade
Capri Sun/Private Label
Kool-Aid/Sunny Delight
Kool-Aid/Capri Sun
S Kool-Aid/Kool-Aid
Kool-Aid/Gatorade
Kool-Aid/POWERade
Kool-Aid/Private Label
Gatorade/Sunny Delight
Gatorade/Capri Sun
Gatorade/Kool-Aid
Gatorade/Gatorade
Gatorade/POWERade


Estimate
-0.001
-0.002
-0.002
-0.004
-0.001
0.000
-0.005
-0.002
-0.006
-0.001
0.000
-0.003
-0.004
-0.003
-0.001
0.058
-0.008
-0.011
-0.005
-0.004
0.004
-0.005
0.060
-0.001
-0.010
-0.005
-0.005
-0.006
-0.001
0.032
-0.006
-0.003
-0.002
-0.002
-0.007
-0.005
0.061
-0.005


Std. Error
0.000
0.001
0.000
0.001
0.000
0.000
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.000
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.009
0.003
0.003
0.003
0.002
0.003
0.001
0.008
0.001
0.003
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.005
0.002
0.001
0.002
0.001
0.002
0.001
0.010
0.001


P-Value
[.000]
[.000]
[.000]
[.000]
[.001]
[.932]
[.000]
[.068]
[.000]
[.269]
[.933]
[.063]
[.043]
[.041]
[.473]
[.000]
[.002]
[.000]
[.134]
[.086]
[.224]
[.002]
[.000]
[.300]
[.000]
[.002]
[.000]
[.000]
[.300]
[.000]
[.000]
[.057]
[.147]
[.134]
[.000]
[.000]
[.000]
[.000]









Table B-5. Continued
Category Brands Estimate Std. Error P-Value
Gatorade/Private Label -0.004 0.001 [.000]
POWERade/Sunny Delight -0.003 0.002 [.086]
POWERade/Capri Sun -0.007 0.002 [.002]
POWERade/Kool-Aid -0.004 0.002 [.057]
POWERade/Gatorade -0.009 0.002 [.000]
POWERade/POWERade 0.058 0.009 [.000]
POWERade/Private Label -0.001 0.002 [.503]
Private Label/Sunny Delight 0.003 0.002 [.224]
Private Label/Capri Sun -0.006 0.001 [.000]
Private Label/Kool-Aid -0.003 0.002 [.147]
Private Label /Gatorade -0.006 0.001 [.000]
Private Label/POWERade -0.001 0.002 [.503]
Private Label/Private Label 0.023 0.006 [.000]









Table B-6. Orange iuice feature elasticities with respect to other beverages


Category
ha




O

5
C.)






O


Brands
Private Label/Private Label
Private Label/Minute Maid
Private Label/Tropicana
Minute Maid/Private Label
Minute Maid/Minute Maid
Minute Maid/Tropicana
Tropicana/Private Label
Tropicana/Minute Maid
Tropicana/Tropicana
Private Label/Private Label
Private Label/Welch's
Private Label/Sunny Delight
Private Label/Minute Maid
Private Label/Tropicana
Minute Maid/Private Label
Minute Maid/Welch's
Minute Maid/Sunny Delight
Minute Maid/Minute Maid
Minute Maid/Tropicana
Tropicana/Private Label
Tropicana/Welch' s
Tropicana/Sunny Delight
Tropicana/Minute Maid
Tropicana/Tropicana


Estimate Std. Error
0.020 0.003
-0.005 0.001
-0.005 0.001
-0.004 0.001
0.017 0.002
-0.005 0.001
-0.005 0.001
-0.005 0.001
0.024 0.003
0.000 0.000
-0.001 0.000
-0.001 0.000
-0.001 0.000
0.000 0.000
0.000 0.000
0.000 0.000
-0.001 0.000
-0.001 0.000
0.000 0.000
0.000 0.000
-0.001 0.000
-0.001 0.000
-0.002 0.000
0.001 0.000


P-Value
[.000]
[.000]
[.000]
[.000]
[.000]
[.000]
[.000]
[.000]
[.000]
[.094]
[.000]
[.003]
[.000]
[.065]
[.000]
[.022]
[.000]
[.000]
[.000]
[.000]
[.000]
[.000]
[.000]
[.000]









Table B-6. Continued
Category Brands
Private/Sunny Delight
Private/Capri Sun
Private/Kool-Aid
Private/Gatorade
Private/POWERade
^- Private/Private
Minute Maid/Sunny Delight
S Minute Maid/Capri Sun
Minute Maid/Kool-Aid
S Minute Maid/Gatorade
Minute Maid/POWERade
Minute Maid/Private
S Tropicana/Sunny Delight
Tropicana/Capri Sun
Tropicana/Kool-Aid
Tropicana/Gatorade
Tropicana/POWERade
Tropicana/Private


Estimate
-0.001
-0.001
-0.001
-0.003
-0.001
0.000
-0.001
-0.002
-0.001
-0.002
-0.001
-0.001
-0.001
-0.003
-0.001
-0.004
-0.001
-0.001


Std. Error
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.001
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.001
0.000
0.001
0.000
0.000


P-Value
[.000]
[.057]
[.004]
[.000]
[.006]
[.438]
[.015]
[.000]
[.001]
[.002]
[.005]
[.008]
[.000]
[.000]
[.000]
[.000]
[.000]
[.006]









Table B-7. Fruit Juice feature elasticities with respect to other beverages
Category Brands Estimate Std. Error P-Value
Private/Private 0.001 0.000 [.094]
Private/Minute Maid -0.001 0.000 [.000]
Private/Tropicana -0.001 0.000 [.000]
Welch's/Private 0.000 0.000 [.000]
Welch's/Minute Maid 0.000 0.000 [.022]
S Welch's/Tropicana 0.000 0.000 [.000]
S Sunny Delight/Private -0.004 0.002 [.003]
S Sunny Delight/Minute Maid -0.005 0.001 [.000]
Sunny Delight/Tropicana -0.006 0.001 [.000]
Minute Maid/Private -0.002 0.001 [.000]
S Minute Maid/Minute Maid -0.003 0.001 [.000]
Minute Maid/Tropicana -0.004 0.001 [.000]
Tropicana/Private -0.001 0.000 [.065]
Tropicana/Minute Maid -0.001 0.000 [.000]
Tropicana/Tropicana 0.002 0.000 [.000]
Private Label/Private Label 0.003 0.001 [.000]
Private Label/Welch's -0.001 0.000 [.007]
Private Label/Sunny Delight 0.001 0.001 [.068]
Private Label/Minute Maid 0.000 0.000 [.264]
S Private Label/Tropicana 0.000 0.000 [.738]
2 Welch's/Private Label 0.000 0.000 [.007]
Welch's/Welch's 0.003 0.000 [.000]
Welch's/Sunny Delight 0.000 0.000 [.106]
S Welch's/Minute Maid 0.000 0.000 [.000]
Welch's/Tropicana 0.000 0.000 [.081]
Sunny Delight/Private Label 0.002 0.001 [.068]
Sunny Delight/Welch's -0.002 0.001 [.106]
Sunny Delight/Sunny Delight 0.027 0.005 [.000]
Sunny Delight/Minute Maid 0.001 0.001 [.639]
Sunny Delight/Tropicana 0.000 0.001 [.835]









Table B-7. Continued
Category Brands
Minute Maid/Private Label
Minute Maid/Welch's
S Minute Maid/Sunny Delight
Minute Maid/Minute Maid
Minute Maid/Tropicana
.8 Tropicana/Private Label
Tropicana/Welch' s
5 Tropicana/Sunny Delight
Tropicana/Minute Maid
Tropicana/Tropicana
Private Label/Sunny Delight
Private Label/Capri Sun
Private Label/Kool-Aid
Private Label/Gatorade
Private Label/POWERade
Private Label/Private Label
Welch's/Sunny Delight
Welch's/Capri Sun
S Welch's/Kool-Aid
Welch's/Gatorade
S Welch's/POWERade
) Welch's/Private Label
Sunny Delight/Sunny Delight
Sunny Delight/Capri Sun
Sunny Delight/Kool-Aid
Sunny Delight/Gatorade
Sunny Delight/POWERade
Sunny Delight/Private Label
Minute Maid/Sunny Delight
Minute Maid/Capri Sun
Minute Maid/Kool-Aid
Minute Maid/Gatorade


Estimate Std. Error
0.000 0.000
-0.002 0.001
0.000 0.000
0.023 0.003
0.000 0.000
0.000 0.000
-0.001 0.000
0.000 0.001
-0.001 0.000
0.005 0.001
-0.001 0.001
0.000 0.000
0.000 0.000
-0.001 0.000
0.000 0.000
0.000 0.001
0.000 0.000
0.000 0.000
0.000 0.000
0.000 0.000
0.000 0.000
0.000 0.000
-0.001 0.003
-0.002 0.001
0.003 0.002
-0.005 0.001
-0.002 0.001
-0.006 0.003
-0.002 0.001
-0.001 0.000
-0.001 0.001
-0.003 0.001


P-Value
[.264]
[.000]
[.639]
[.000]
[.042]
[.738]
[.081]
[.835]
[.042]
[.000]
[.023]
[.108]
[.814]
[.000]
[.932]
[.933]
[.781]
[.005]
[.151]
[.000]
[.000]
[.063]
[.814]
[.043]
[.041]
[.000]
[.068]
[.043]
[.001]
[.003]
[.157]
[.000]









Table B-7. Continued
Category B




T
.


T

T
T
zl T
F4-


brands
minute Maid/POWERade
minute Maid/Private Label
ropicana/Sunny Delight
ropicana/Capri Sun
ropicana/Kool-Aid
ropicana/Gatorade
ropicana/POWERade
ropicana/Private Label


Estimate
-0.003
-0.002
-0.001
-0.001
-0.001
-0.001
0.000
-0.001


Std. Error
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.001


P-Value
[.000]
[.041]
[.304]
[.005]
[.004]
[.001]
[.269]
[.473]









Table B-8. Fruit drink feature elasticities with respect to other beverages
Category Brands Estimate Std. Error P-Value
Sunny Delight/Private Label -0.011 0.003 [.000]
Sunny Delight/Minute Maid -0.005 0.002 [.015]
Sunny Delight/Tropicana -0.009 0.003 [.000]
Capri Sun/Private Label -0.004 0.002 [.057]
Capri Sun/Minute Maid -0.011 0.002 [.000]
.8 Capri Sun/Tropicana -0.012 0.002 [.000]
Kool-Aid/Private Label -0.004 0.001 [.004]
S Kool-Aid/Minute Maid -0.004 0.001 [.001]
Kool-Aid/Tropicana -0.006 0.001 [.000]
Gatorade/Private Label -0.010 0.003 [.000]
Gatorade/Minute Maid -0.006 0.002 [.002]
S Gatorade/Tropicana -0.013 0.003 [.000]
POWERade/Private Label -0.007 0.002 [.006]
POWERade/Minute Maid -0.006 0.002 [.005]
POWERade/Tropicana -0.008 0.002 [.000]
Private Label/Private Label 0.001 0.002 [.438]
Private Label/Minute Maid -0.003 0.001 [.008]
Private Label/Tropicana -0.003 0.001 [.006]
Sunny Delight/Private Label -0.003 0.001 [.023]
Sunny Delight/Welch's 0.000 0.002 [.781]
Sunny Delight/Sunny Delight -0.001 0.003 [.814]
Sunny Delight/Minute Maid -0.005 0.002 [.001]
Sunny Delight/Tropicana -0.001 0.001 [.304]
Capri Sun/Private Label 0.000 0.000 [.108]
Capri Sun/Welch's -0.002 0.001 [.005]
Capri Sun/Sunny Delight -0.001 0.001 [.043]
S Capri Sun/Minute Maid -0.002 0.001 [.003]
Capri Sun/Tropicana -0.001 0.000 [.005]
Kool-Aid/Private Label 0.000 0.000 [.814]
Kool-Aid/Welch's 0.001 0.001 [.151]
Kool-Aid/Sunny Delight 0.002 0.001 [.041]
Kool-Aid/Minute Maid -0.001 0.001 [.157]
Kool-Aid/Tropicana -0.002 0.001 [.004]
Gatorade/Private Label -0.001 0.000 [.000]
Gatorade/Welch's -0.002 0.001 [.000]
Gatorade/Sunny Delight -0.002 0.000 [.000]
Gatorade/Minute Maid -0.004 0.001 [.000]
Gatorade/Tropicana -0.001 0.000 [.001]









Table B-8. Continued
Category Brands
POWERade/Private Label
POWERade/Welch's
POWERade/Sunny Delight
POWERade/Minute Maid
POWERade/Tropicana
Private Label/Private Label
Private Label/Welch's
Private Label/Sunny Delight
Private Label/Minute Maid
Private Label/Tropicana
Sunny Delight/Sunny Delight
Sunny Delight/Capri Sun
Sunny Delight/Kool-Aid
Sunny Delight/Gatorade
Sunny Delight/POWERade
Sunny Delight/Private Label
Capri Sun/Sunny Delight
Capri Sun/Capri Sun
S Capri Sun/Kool-Aid
Capri Sun/Gatorade
Capri Sun/POWERade
Capri Sun/Private Label
Kool-Aid/Sunny Delight
Kool-Aid/Capri Sun
Kool-Aid/Kool-Aid
Kool-Aid/Gatorade
Kool-Aid/POWERade
Kool-Aid/Private Label
Gatorade/Sunny Delight
Gatorade/Capri Sun
Gatorade/Kool-Aid
Gatorade/Gatorade
Gatorade/POWERade
Gatorade/Private Label


Estimate
0.000
-0.005
-0.002
-0.006
-0.001
0.000
-0.003
-0.004
-0.003
-0.001
0.058
-0.008
-0.011
-0.005
-0.004
0.004
-0.005
0.060
-0.001
-0.010
-0.005
-0.005
-0.006
-0.001
0.032
-0.006
-0.003
-0.002
-0.002
-0.007
-0.005
0.061
-0.005
-0.004


Std. Error
0.000
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.000
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.009
0.003
0.003
0.003
0.002
0.003
0.001
0.008
0.001
0.003
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.005
0.002
0.001
0.002
0.001
0.002
0.001
0.010
0.001
0.001


P-Value
[.932]
[.000]
[.068]
[.000]
[.269]
[.933]
[.063]
[.043]
[.041]
[.473]
[.000]
[.002]
[.000]
[.134]
[.086]
[.224]
[.002]
[.000]
[.300]
[.000]
[.002]
[.000]
[.000]
[.300]
[.000]
[.000]
[.057]
[.147]
[.134]
[.000]
[.000]
[.000]
[.000]
[.000]









Table B-8. Continued
Category Brands Estimate Std. Error P-Value
POWERade/Sunny Delight -0.003 0.002 [.086]
POWERade/Capri Sun -0.007 0.002 [.002]
POWERade/Kool-Aid -0.004 0.002 [.057]
S POWERade/Gatorade -0.009 0.002 [.000]
S POWERade/POWERade 0.058 0.009 [.000]
POWERade/Private Label -0.001 0.002 [.503]
Private Label/Sunny Delight 0.003 0.002 [.224]
Private Label/Capri Sun -0.006 0.001 [.000]
Private Label/Kool-Aid -0.003 0.002 [.147]
Private Label /Gatorade -0.006 0.001 [.000]
Private Label/POWERade -0.001 0.002 [.503]
Private Label/Private Label 0.023 0.006 [.000]









Table B-9. Orange juice feature and display elasticities with respect to other beverages
Category Brands Estimate Std. Error P-Value
Private Label/Private Label 0.0209 0.0017 [.000]
Private Label/Minute Maid -0.0049 0.0005 [.000]
o Private Label/Tropicana -0.0053 0.0006 [.000]
S Minute Maid/Private Label -0.0063 0.0007 [.000]
O
S Minute Maid/Minute Maid 0.0299 0.0021 [.000]
Minute Maid/Tropicana -0.0082 0.0008 [.000]
g Tropicana/Private Label -0.0072 0.0008 [.000]
Tropicana/Minute Maid -0.0087 0.0008 [.000]
O Tropicana/Tropicana 0.0383 0.0027 [.000]
Private Label/Private Label 0.0002 0.0001 [.088]
Private Label/Welch's -0.0008 0.0002 [.000]
Private Label/Sunny Delight -0.0007 0.0002 [.002]
Private Label/Minute Maid -0.0012 0.0002 [.000]
Private Label/Tropicana -0.0002 0.0001 [.059]
Minute Maid/Private Label -0.0003 0.0001 [.000]
Minute Maid/Welch's -0.0004 0.0002 [.020]
S Minute Maid/Sunny Delight -0.0009 0.0002 [.000]
Minute Maid/Minute Maid -0.0021 0.0003 [.000]
S Minute Maid/Tropicana -0.0004 0.0001 [.000]
0 Tropicana/Private Label -0.0004 0.0001 [.000]
Tropicana/Welch's -0.0012 0.0002 [.000]
Tropicana/Sunny Delight -0.0012 0.0002 [.000]
Tropicana/Minute Maid -0.0025 0.0003 [.000]
Tropicana/Tropicana 0.0010 0.0001 [.000]









Table B-9. Continued
Category Brands Estimate Std. Error P-Value
Private/Sunny Delight -0.0015 0.0004 [.000]
Private/Capri Sun -0.0010 0.0005 [.048]
Private/Kool-Aid -0.0011 0.0004 [.002]
Private/Gatorade -0.0035 0.0007 [.000]
Private/POWERade -0.0013 0.0005 [.004]
Private/Private 0.0003 0.0004 [.437]
S Minute Maid/Sunny Delight -0.0010 0.0004 [.009]
S Minute Maid/Capri Sun -0.0036 0.0006 [.000]
Minute Maid/Kool-Aid -0.0016 0.0004 [.000]
S Minute Maid/Gatorade -0.0026 0.0008 [.001]
Minute Maid/POWERade -0.0015 0.0005 [.003]
Minute Maid/Private -0.0009 0.0003 [.005]
Tropicana/Sunny Delight -0.0019 0.0004 [.000]
Tropicana/Capri Sun -0.0043 0.0007 [.000]
Tropicana/Kool-Aid -0.0024 0.0004 [.000]
Tropicana/Gatorade -0.0061 0.0011 [.000]
Tropicana/POWERade -0.0023 0.0005 [.000]
Tropicana/Private -0.0010 0.0003 [.003]









Table B-10. Fruit juice feature and display elasticities with respect to other beverages


Category Brands Estimate
Private/Private 0.0000
Private/Minute Maid 0.0000
Private/Tropicana 0.0000
Welch's/Private -0.0003
to Welch's/Minute Maid -0.0001
Welch's/Tropicana -0.0004
Sunny Delight/Private -0.0047
Sunny Delight/Minute Maid -0.0049
S Sunny Delight/Tropicana -0.0061
Minute Maid/Private -0.0016
Minute Maid/Minute Maid -0.0023
Minute Maid/Tropicana -0.0025
Private Label/Private Label 0.0001
Private Label/Welch's 0.0000
Private Label/Sunny Delight 0.0000
Private Label/Minute Maid 0.0000
Private Label/Tropicana 0.0000
Welch's/Private Label -0.0001
Welch's/Welch's 0.0027
Welch's/Sunny Delight -0.0001
S Welch's/Minute Maid -0.0004
Welch's/Tropicana -0.0001
.8 Sunny Delight/Private Label 0.0020
2 Sunny Delight/Welch's -0.0023
5 Sunny Delight/Sunny Delight 0.0283
Sunny Delight/Minute Maid 0.0006
Sunny Delight/Tropicana 0.0003
Minute Maid/Private Label 0.0001
Minute Maid/Welch's -0.0015
Minute Maid/Sunny Delight 0.0001
Minute Maid/Minute Maid 0.0149
Minute Maid/Tropicana -0.0003


Std. Error
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.0015
0.0010
0.0011
0.0003
0.0003
0.0003
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0002
0.0001
0.0001
0.0000
0.0011
0.0014
0.0036
0.0012
0.0012
0.0001
0.0003
0.0002
0.0012
0.0001


v


P-Value
[.088]
[.000]
[.000]
[.000]
[.020]
[.000]
[.002]
[.000]
[.000]
[.000]
[.000]
[.000]
[.000]
[.004]
[.060]
[.259]
[.737]
[.004]
[.000]
[.099]
[.000]
[.077]
[.060]
[.099]
[.000]
[.638]
[.835]
[.259]
[.000]
[.638]
[.000]
[.034]









Table B-10. Continued
Category Brands Estimate Std. Error P-Value
Private Label/Sunny Delight 0.0000 0.0000 [.018]
Private Label/Capri Sun 0.0000 0.0000 [.101]
Private Label/Kool-Aid 0.0000 0.0000 [.813]
Private Label/Gatorade 0.0000 0.0000 [.000]
Private Label/POWERade 0.0000 0.0000 [.932]
Private Label/Private Label 0.0000 0.0000 [.933]
Welch's/Sunny Delight 0.0000 0.0001 [.780]
Welch's/Capri Sun -0.0002 0.0001 [.003]
S Welch's/Kool-Aid 0.0002 0.0001 [.148]
S Welch's/Gatorade -0.0004 0.0001 [.000]
Welch's/POWERade -0.0004 0.0001 [.000]
S Welch's/Private Label -0.0003 0.0001 [.059]
$ Sunny Delight/Sunny Delight -0.0008 0.0032 [.814]
Sunny Delight/Capri Sun -0.0021 0.0010 [.035]
Sunny Delight/Kool-Aid 0.0034 0.0016 [.033]
Sunny Delight/Gatorade -0.0051 0.0010 [.000]
Sunny Delight/POWERade -0.0023 0.0012 [.061]
Sunny Delight/Private Label -0.0063 0.0030 [.035]
Minute Maid/Sunny Delight -0.0011 0.0003 [.000]
Minute Maid/Capri Sun -0.0007 0.0002 [.002]
Minute Maid/Kool-Aid -0.0006 0.0004 [.153]
Minute Maid/Gatorade -0.0019 0.0003 [.000]
Minute Maid/POWERade -0.0017 0.0004 [.000]
Minute Maid/Private Label -0.0010 0.0005 [.037]









Table B- 1. Fruit drinks feature and display elasticities with respect to other beverages
Category Brands Estimate Std. Error P-Value
Sunny Delight/Private Label -0.0091 0.0022 [.000]
Sunny Delight/Minute Maid -0.0045 0.0017 [.009]
Sunny Delight/Tropicana -0.0081 0.0019 [.000]
Capri Sun/Private Label -0.0032 0.0016 [.048]
Capri Sun/Minute Maid -0.0090 0.0015 [.000]
Capri Sun/Tropicana -0.0104 0.0017 [.000]
Kool-Aid/Private Label -0.0036 0.0012 [.002]
Kool-Aid/Minute Maid -0.0040 0.0010 [.000]
Kool-Aid/Tropicana -0.0056 0.0010 [.000]
1 Gatorade/Private Label -0.0098 0.0021 [.000]
Gatorade/Minute Maid -0.0056 0.0017 [.001]
.t Gatorade/Tropicana -0.0125 0.0023 [.000]
S POWERade/Private Label -0.0030 0.0010 [.004]
POWERade/Minute Maid -0.0026 0.0009 [.003]
POWERade/Tropicana -0.0038 0.0009 [.000]
Private Label/Private Label 0.0003 0.0004 [.437]
Private Label/Minute Maid -0.0007 0.0002 [.005]
Private Label/Tropicana -0.0007 0.0002 [.003]
Sunny Delight/Private Label -0.0023 0.0010 [.018]
Sunny Delight/Welch's 0.0004 0.0013 [.780]
Sunny Delight/Sunny Delight -0.0006 0.0026 [.814]
Sunny Delight/Minute Maid -0.0047 0.0013 [.000]
Sunny Delight/Tropicana -0.0012 0.0011 [.302]
Capri Sun/Private Label -0.0003 0.0002 [.101]
Capri Sun/Welch's -0.0014 0.0005 [.003]
Capri Sun/Sunny Delight -0.0010 0.0005 [.035]
S Capri Sun/Minute Maid -0.0018 0.0006 [.002]
Capri Sun/Tropicana -0.0007 0.0002 [.003]
Kool-Aid/Private Label -0.0001 0.0003 [.813]
Kool-Aid/Welch's 0.0013 0.0009 [.148]
Kool-Aid/Sunny Delight 0.0016 0.0007 [.033]
Kool-Aid/Minute Maid -0.0014 0.0010 [.153]
Kool-Aid/Tropicana -0.0014 0.0004 [.002]
Gatorade/Private Label -0.0005 0.0001 [.000]
Gatorade/Welch's -0.0024 0.0005 [.000]
Gatorade/Sunny Delight -0.0020 0.0004 [.000]
Gatorade/Minute Maid -0.0038 0.0005 [.000]
Gatorade/Tropicana -0.0008 0.0002 [.000]









Table 8-11. Continued
Category Brands Estimate Std. Error P-Value
POWERade/Private Label 0.0000 0.0002 [.932]
POWERade/Welch's -0.0023 0.0005 [.000]
POWERade/Sunny Delight -0.0007 0.0004 [.061]
POWERade/Minute Maid -0.0028 0.0006 [.000]
POWERade/Tropicana -0.0002 0.0002 [.265]
Private Label/Private Label 0.0000 0.0002 [.933]
Private Label/Welch's -0.0007 0.0003 [.059]
Private Label/Sunny Delight -0.0008 0.0004 [.035]
Private Label/Minute Maid -0.0007 0.0003 [.037]
Private Label/Tropicana -0.0002 0.0002 [.472]
Sunny Delight/Sunny Delight 0.0497 0.0051 [.000]
Sunny Delight/Capri Sun -0.0068 0.0020 [.001]
Sunny Delight/Kool-Aid -0.0092 0.0019 [.000]
Sunny Delight/Gatorade -0.0039 0.0025 [.122]
Sunny Delight/POWERade -0.0033 0.0018 [.078]
Sunny Delight/Private Label 0.0035 0.0029 [.216]
Capri Sun/Sunny Delight -0.0038 0.0011 [.001]
Capri Sun/Capri Sun 0.0503 0.0038 [.000]
Capri Sun/Kool-Aid -0.0012 0.0011 [.286]
Capri Sun/Gatorade -0.0085 0.0023 [.000]
Capri Sun/POWERade -0.0044 0.0013 [.001]
Capri Sun/Private Label -0.0046 0.0010 [.000]
Kool-Aid/Sunny Delight -0.0051 0.0010 [.000]
Kool-Aid/Capri Sun -0.0012 0.0011 [.286]
Kool-Aid/Kool-Aid 0.0294 0.0030 [.000]
Kool-Aid/Gatorade -0.0052 0.0013 [.000]
5 Kool-Aid/POWERade -0.0024 0.0012 [.053]
Kool-Aid/Private Label -0.0023 0.0015 [.141]
Gatorade/Sunny Delight -0.0019 0.0012 [.122]
Gatorade/Capri Sun -0.0073 0.0020 [.000]
Gatorade/Kool-Aid -0.0045 0.0011 [.000]
Gatorade/Gatorade 0.0601 0.0067 [.000]
Gatorade/POWERade -0.0049 0.0012 [.000]
Gatorade/Private Label -0.0039 0.0007 [.000]
POWERade/Sunny Delight -0.0013 0.0007 [.078]
POWERade/Capri Sun -0.0031 0.0009 [.001]
POWERade/Kool-Aid -0.0017 0.0009 [.053]









Table B-11. Continued
Category Brands Estimate Std. Error P-Value
POWERade/Gatorade -0.0040 0.0010 [.000]
POWERade/POWERade 0.0262 0.0025 [.000]
POWERade/Private Label -0.0005 0.0008 [.500]
Private Label/Sunny Delight 0.0006 0.0005 [.216]
Private Label/Capri Sun -0.0014 0.0003 [.000]
Private Label/Kool-Aid -0.0007 0.0005 [.141]
Private Label /Gatorade -0.0013 0.0003 [.000]
S Private Label/POWERade -0.0002 0.0003 [.500]
Private Label/Private Label 0.0054 0.0012 [.000]









APPENDIX C
PARAMETER ESTIMATES AND PROMOTIONAL ELASTICITIES FOR RETAILER Z

Table C-1. Marginal propensity to consume estimates
Std.
Category Brand Estimate Error P-value
v Florida's Natural 0.118 0.038 [.002]
Minute Maid 0.031 0.025 [.223]
O Tropicana 0.377 0.049 [.000]
Minute Maid 0.023 0.007 [.001]
Newman's Own 0.026 0.005 [.000]
Turkey Hill 0.009 0.002 [.000]
Vita J 0.002 0.001 [.002]
Welch's 0.006 0.004 [.103]
Tropicana 0.025 0.009 [.003]
Capri Sun 0.098 0.017 [.000]
S Gatorade 0.198 0.041 [.000]
Minute Maid 0.024 0.005 [.000]
2 POWERade 0.049 0.010 [.000]
Snapple 0.014 0.009 [.120]









Table C-2. Promotional and Slutsky coefficients for Retailer Z
Brands Estimate Std. Error P-value
Displays 0.003 0.000 [.000]
Features 0.000 0.000 [.191]
Displays and Features 0.006 0.000 [.000]
RHO 0.311 0.035 [.000]
Florida's Natural (OJ)/Florida's Natural (OJ) -0.280 0.014 [.000]
Florida's Natural (OJ)/Minute Maid (OJ) 0.050 0.007 [.000]
Florida's Natural (OJ)/Tropicana (OJ) 0.112 0.010 [.000]
Florida's Natural (OJ)/Minute Maid (FJ) -0.002 0.004 [.616]
Florida's Natural (OJ)/Newman's Own (FJ) 0.015 0.003 [.000]
Florida's Natural (OJ)/Turkey Hill (FJ) 0.003 0.001 [.016]
Florida's Natural (OJ)/Vita J (FJ) 0.001 0.001 [.033]
Florida's Natural (OJ)/Welch's (FJ) 0.005 0.002 [.032]
Florida's Natural (OJ)/Tropicana (FJ) 0.009 0.003 [.002]
Florida's Natural (OJ)/Capri Sun (FD) 0.010 0.005 [.046]
Florida's Natural (OJ)/Gatorade (FD) 0.038 0.010 [.000]
Florida's Natural (OJ)/Minute Maid (FD) 0.016 0.005 [.002]
Florida's Natural (OJ)/POWERade (FD) 0.017 0.003 [.000]
Florida's Natural (OJ)/Snapple (FD) 0.005 0.004 [.232]
Minute Maid (OJ)/Minute Maid (OJ) -0.175 0.012 [.000]
Minute Maid (OJ)/Tropicana (OJ) 0.070 0.008 [.000]
Minute Maid (OJ)/Minute Maid (FJ) 0.008 0.003 [.018]
Minute Maid (OJ)/Newman's Own (FJ) 0.008 0.002 [.001]
Minute Maid (OJ)/Turkey Hill (FJ) 0.001 0.001 [.174]
Minute Maid (OJ)/Vita J (FJ) 0.000 0.000 [.313]
Minute Maid (OJ)/Welch's (FJ) 0.002 0.002 [.186]
Minute Maid (OJ)/Tropicana (FJ) 0.007 0.004 [.064]
Minute Maid (OJ)/Capri Sun (FD) 0.006 0.006 [.330]
Minute Maid (OJ)/Gatorade (FD) 0.015 0.010 [.118]
Minute Maid(OJ)/Minute Maid (FD) -0.002 0.003 [.492]
Minute Maid (OJ)/POWERade (FD) 0.016 0.004 [.000]
Minute Maid (OJ)/Snapple (FD) -0.006 0.004 [.167]
Tropicana (OJ)/Tropicana (OJ) -0.352 0.019 [.000]
Tropicana (OJ)/Minute Maid (FJ) 0.010 0.003 [.000]
Tropicana (OJ)/Newman's Own (FJ) 0.014 0.002 [.000]
Tropicana (OJ)/Turkey Hill (FJ) 0.005 0.001 [.000]
Tropicana (OJ)/Vita J (FJ) 0.001 0.000 [.000]









Table C-2. Continued
Brands Estimate Std. Error P-value
Tropicana (OJ)/Welch's (FJ) 0.008 0.001 [.000]
Tropicana (OJ)/Tropicana (FJ) 0.014 0.003 [.000]
Tropicana (OJ)/Capri Sun (FD) 0.030 0.006 [.000]
Tropicana (OJ)/Gatorade (FD) 0.061 0.011 [.000]
Tropicana (OJ)/Minute Maid (FD) 0.003 0.002 [.176]
Tropicana (OJ)/POWERade (FD) 0.025 0.004 [.000]
Tropicana (OJ)/Snapple (FD) 0.000 0.003 [.971]
Minute Maid (FJ)/Minute Maid (FJ) -0.065 0.005 [.000]
Minute Maid (FJ)/Newman's Own (FJ) 0.007 0.003 [.022]
Minute Maid (FJ)/Turkey Hill (FJ) 0.001 0.001 [.217]
Minute Maid (FJ)/Vita J (FJ) 0.001 0.000 [.145]
Minute Maid (FJ)/Welch's (FJ) 0.000 0.002 [.996]
Minute Maid (FJ)/Tropicana (FJ) 0.011 0.002 [.000]
Minute Maid (FJ)/Capri Sun (FD) 0.001 0.002 [.624]
Minute Maid (FJ)/Gatorade (FD) 0.004 0.003 [.128]
Minute Maid (FJ)/Minute Maid (FD) 0.015 0.003 [.000]
Minute Maid (FJ)/POWERade (FD) 0.000 0.003 [.962]
Minute Maid (FJ)/Snapple (FD) 0.008 0.003 [.012]
Newman's Own (FJ)/Newman's Own (FJ) -0.059 0.005 [.000]
Newman's Own (FJ)/Turkey Hill (FJ) 0.000 0.001 [.747]
Newman's Own (FJ)/Vita J (FJ) 0.000 0.001 [.519]
Newman's Own (FJ)/Welch's (FJ) 0.008 0.002 [.000]
Newman's Own (FJ)/Tropicana (FJ) 0.002 0.002 [.186]
Newman's Own (FJ)/Capri Sun (FD) 0.005 0.002 [.001]
Newman's Own (FJ)/Gatorade (FD) 0.007 0.002 [.000]
Newmans Own (FJ)/Minute Maid (FD) -0.007 0.004 [.066]
Newmans Own (FJ)/POWERade (FD) -0.001 0.003 [.627]
Newmans Own (FJ)/Snapple (FD) 0.001 0.002 [.581]
Turkey Hill (FJ)/Turkey Hill (FJ) -0.021 0.001 [.000]
Turkey Hill (FJ)/Vita J (FJ) 0.000 0.000 [.165]
Turkey Hill (FJ)/Welch's (FJ) 0.004 0.001 [.000]
Turkey Hill (FJ)/Tropicana (FJ) 0.002 0.001 [.008]
Turkey Hill (FJ)/Capri Sun (FD) 0.002 0.001 [.000]
Turkey Hill (FJ)/Gatorade (FD) 0.002 0.001 [.027]
Turkey Hill (FJ)/Minute Maid (FD) -0.002 0.002 [.309]
Turkey Hill (FJ)/POWERade (FD) 0.000 0.001 [.896]
Turkey Hill (FJ)/Snapple (FD) 0.001 0.001 [.343]









Table C-2 Continued


Brands
Vita J (FJ)/Vita J (FJ)
Vita J (FJ)/Welch's (FJ)
Vita J(FJ)/Tropicana (FJ)
Vita J (FJ)/Capri Sun (FD)
Vita J (FJ)/Gatorade (FD)
Vita J (FJ)/Minute Maid (FD)
Vita J (FJ)/POWERade (FD)
Vita J (FJ)/Snapple (FD)
Welch's (FJ)/Welch's (FJ)
Welch's (FJ)/Tropicana (FJ)
Welch's (FJ)/Capri Sun (FD)
Welch's (FJ)/Gatorade (FD)
Welch's (FJ)/Minute Maid (FD)
Welch's (FJ)/POWERade (FD)
Welch's (FJ)/Snapple (FD)
Tropicana (FJ)/Tropicana (FJ)
Tropicana (FJ)/Capri Sun (FD)
Tropicana (FJ)/Gatorade (FD)
Tropicana (FJ)/Minute Maid (FD)
Tropicana (FJ)/POWERade (FD)
Tropicana (FJ)/Snapple (FD)
Capri Sun (FD)/Capri Sun (FD)
Capri Sun (FD)/Gatorade (FD)
Capri Sun (FD)/Minute Maid (FD)
Capri Sun (FD)/(FJ)/POWERade (FD)
Capri Sun (FD)/(FJ)/Snapple (FD)
Gatorade (FD)/Gatorade (FD)
Gatorade (FD)/Minute Maid (FD)
Gatorade (FD)/(FJ)/POWERade (FD)
Gatorade (FD)/(FJ)/Snapple (FD)
Minute Maid (FD)/Minute Maid (FD)
Minute Maid (FD)/POWERade (FD)
Gatorade (FD)/Snapple (FD)
Minute Maid (FD)/POWERade (FD)
Gatorade (FD)/Snapple (FD)
Snapple (FD)/Snapple (FD)


Std.
Estimate Error
-0.002 0.000
-0.001 0.000
0.000 0.000
0.000 0.000
0.000 0.000
-0.001 0.001
0.000 0.000
0.000 0.000
-0.044 0.002
0.004 0.001
0.002 0.001
0.002 0.002
0.000 0.002
0.007 0.002
0.004 0.002
-0.068 0.003
0.009 0.003
-0.005 0.004
0.006 0.002
0.002 0.003
0.007 0.003
-0.109 0.007
0.036 0.007
0.006 0.002
0.005 0.003
-0.003 0.003
-0.180 0.017
0.005 0.002
0.011 0.004
0.003 0.004
-0.027 0.006
-0.001 0.003
-0.012 0.003
-0.079 0.006
-0.001 0.005
-0.017 0.010


P-value
[.000]
[.067]
[.048]
[.174]
[.490]
[.107]
[.619]
[.528]
[.000]
[.000]
[.163]
[.226]
[.981]
[.000]
[.014]
[.000]
[.001]
[.149]
[.001]
[.520]
[.015]
[.000]
[.000]
[.001]
[.109]
[.255]
[.000]
[.019]
[.003]
[.484]
[.000]
[.699]
[.000]
[.000]
[.834]
[.088]









Table C-3. Orange juice display elasticities with respect to other beverages
Std.
Category Brands Estimate Error P-value
Florida's Natural 0.0670 0.8384 [.000]
S Florida's Natural\Minute Maid -0.0119 0.0023 [.000]
to Florida's Natural\Tropicana -0.0269 0.0038 [.000]
$ Minute Maid\Florida's Natural -0.0056 0.0011 [.000]
S Minute Maid\Minute Maid 0.0196 0.0027 [.000]
S Minute Maid\Tropicana -0.0078 0.0012 [.000]
Tropicana\Florida's Natural -0.0122 0.0017 [.000]
Tropicana\Minute Maid -0.0076 0.0012 [.000]
S Tropicana\Tropicana 0.0382 0.0047 [.000]
Florida's Natural\Minute Maid 0.0004 0.0009 [.617]
Florida's Natural\Newman's Own -0.0035 0.0009 [.000]
Florida's Natural\Turkey Hill -0.0008 0.0003 [.019]
Florida's Natural\Vita J -0.0003 0.0002 [.039]
Florida's Natural\Welch's -0.0012 0.0006 [.038]
S Florida's Natural\Tropicana -0.0023 0.0008 [.005]
Minute Maid\Minute Maid -0.0009 0.0004 [.024]
S Minute Maid\Newman's Own -0.0009 0.0003 [.002]
Minute Maid\Turkey Hill -0.0001 0.0001 [.174]
S Minute Maid\Vita J 0.0000 0.0000 [.319]
S Minute Maid\Welch's -0.0003 0.0002 [.194]
Minute Maid\Tropicana -0.0008 0.0004 [.070]
0 Tropicana\Minute Maid -0.0011 0.0003 [.000]
Tropicana\Newman's Own -0.0015 0.0003 [.000]
Tropicana\Turkey Hill -0.0005 0.0001 [.000]
Tropicana\Vita J -0.0001 0.0000 [.001]
Tropicana\Welch's -0.0009 0.0002 [.000]
Tropicana\Tropicana -0.0015 0.0004 [.000]









Table C-3. Continued
Std.
Category Brands Estimate Error P-value
Florida's Natural\Capri Sun -0.0024 0.0012 [.050]
Florida's Natural\Gatorade -0.0091 0.0027 [.001]
Florida's Natural\Minute Maid -0.0039 0.0013 [.003]
Florida's Natural\POWERade -0.0040 0.0009 [.000]
S Florida's Natural\Snapple -0.0011 0.0009 [.236]
S Minute Maid\Capri Sun -0.0006 0.0007 [.340]
Minute Maid\Gatorade -0.0017 0.0011 [.123]
S Minute Maid\Minute Maid 0.0002 0.0003 [.494]
Minute Maid\POWERade -0.0018 0.0005 [.001]
S Minute Maid\Snapple 0.0007 0.0005 [.175]
Tropicana\Capri Sun -0.0032 0.0007 [.000]
Tropicana\Gatorade -0.0066 0.0015 [.000]
Tropicana\Minute Maid -0.0003 0.0003 [.179]
Tropicana\POWERade -0.0027 0.0005 [.000]
Tropicana\Snapple 0.0000 0.0004 [.971]









Table C-4. Fruit juice display elasticities with respect to other beverages
Std.
Category Brands Estimate Error P-value
Minute Maid\Florida's Natural 0.0012 0.0024 [.617]
Minute Maid\Minute Maid -0.0054 0.0024 [.024]
Minute Maid\Tropicana -0.0068 0.0019 [.000]
Turkey Hill\Florida's Natural -0.0047 0.0020 [.019]
S Turkey Hill\Minute Maid -0.0018 0.0013 [.174]
Turkey Hill\Tropicana -0.0064 0.0013 [.000]
Vita J\Florida's Natural -0.0019 0.0009 [.039]
S Vita J\Minute Maid -0.0005 0.0005 [.319]
S Vita J\Tropicana -0.0017 0.0005 [.001]
S Welch's\Florida's Natural -0.0014 0.0007 [.038]
S Welch's\Minute Maid -0.0007 0.0005 [.194]
Welch's\Tropicana -0.0024 0.0005 [.000]
Tropicana\Florida's Natural -0.0058 0.0020 [.005]
Tropicana\Minute Maid -0.0043 0.0024 [.070]
Tropicana\Tropicana -0.0083 0.0021 [.000]
Minute Maid\Minute Maid 0.0438 0.0061 [.000]
Minute Maid\Newman's Own -0.0046 0.0021 [.028]
Minute Maid\Turkey Hill -0.0009 0.0008 [.228]
Minute Maid\Vita J -0.0005 0.0003 [.151]
Minute Maid\Welch's 0.0000 0.0013 [.996]
Minute Maid\Tropicana -0.0073 0.0017 [.000]
Turkey Hill\Minute Maid -0.0019 0.0016 [.228]
Turkey Hill\Newman's Own -0.0006 0.0019 [.747]
5 Welch's\Minute Maid 0.0287 0.0036 [.000]
S Welch's\Newman's Own -0.0007 0.0005 [.172]
Welch's\Minute Maid -0.0059 0.0015 [.000]
o Welch's\Newman's Own -0.0023 0.0009 [.011]
Vita J\Minute Maid -0.0010 0.0007 [.151]
2 Vita J\Newman's Own 0.0006 0.0009 [.519]
Vita J\Turkey Hill -0.0007 0.0005 [.172]
Vita JVita J 0.0034 0.0007 [.000]
Vita J\Welch's 0.0010 0.0006 [.074]
Vita J\Tropicana -0.0007 0.0004 [.054]
Welch's\Minute Maid 0.0000 0.0006 [.996]
Welch's\Newman's Own -0.0024 0.0007 [.001]
Welch's\Turkey Hill -0.0013 0.0003 [.000]
Welch's\Vita J 0.0002 0.0001 [.074]









Table C-4. Continued
Std.
Category Brands Estimate Error P-value
Welch's\Welch's 0.0131 0.0018 [.000]
Welch's\Tropicana -0.0011 0.0003 [.001]
S Tropicana\Minute Maid -0.0066 0.0016 [.000]
Tropicana\Newman's Own -0.0013 0.0010 [.196]
o Tropicana\Turkey Hill -0.0010 0.0004 [.011]
2 Tropicana\Vita J -0.0003 0.0001 [.054]
2 Tropicana\Welch's -0.0022 0.0007 [.001]
Tropicana\Tropicana 0.0415 0.0055 [.000]
Minute Maid\Capri Sun -0.0007 0.0015 [.624]
Minute Maid\Gatorade -0.0030 0.0020 [.130]
Minute Maid\Minute Maid -0.0103 0.0025 [.000]
Minute Maid\POWERade -0.0001 0.0024 [.962]
Minute Maid\Snapple -0.0054 0.0023 [.017]
Turkey Hill\Capri Sun -0.0032 0.0009 [.001]
Turkey Hill\Gatorade -0.0025 0.0012 [.033]
Turkey Hill\Minute Maid 0.0022 0.0022 [.310]
Turkey Hill\POWERade 0.0002 0.0013 [.896]
Turkey Hill\Snapple -0.0011 0.0012 [.345]
Vita JCapri Sun -0.0005 0.0004 [.181]
Vita J\Gatorade -0.0003 0.0005 [.493]
Vita J\Minute Maid 0.0017 0.0011 [.112]
Vita J\POWERade 0.0003 0.0006 [.620]
S Vita J\Snapple 0.0003 0.0005 [.531]
S Welch's\Capri Sun -0.0004 0.0003 [.170]
Welch's\Gatorade -0.0006 0.0005 [.231]
Welch's\Minute Maid 0.0000 0.0007 [.981]
Welch's\POWERade -0.0019 0.0005 [.000]
Welch's\Snapple -0.0011 0.0005 [.017]
Tropicana\Capri Sun -0.0057 0.0018 [.002]
Tropicana\Gatorade 0.0032 0.0022 [.154]
Tropicana\Minute Maid -0.0037 0.0012 [.002]
Tropicana\POWERade -0.0012 0.0018 [.519]
Tropicana\Snapple -0.0042 0.0018 [.020]









Table C-5. Fruit drink display elasticities with respect to other beverages
Std.
Category Brands Estimate Error P-value
Capri Sun\Florida's Natural -0.0049 0.0025 [.050]
Capri SunWMinute Maid -0.0028 0.0030 [.340]
Capri Sun\Tropicana -0.0145 0.0032 [.000]
Gatorade\Florida's Natural -0.0192 0.0057 [.001]
Gatorade\Minute Maid -0.0078 0.0050 [.123]
Gatorade\Tropicana -0.0307 0.0068 [.000]
S Minute Maid\Florida's Natural -0.0031 0.0010 [.003]
Minute Maid\Minute Maid 0.0003 0.0005 [.494]
Minute Maid\Tropicana -0.0006 0.0004 [.179]
POWERade\Florida's Natural -0.0171 0.0039 [.000]
POWERade\Minute Maid -0.0162 0.0048 [.001]
POWERade\Tropicana -0.0257 0.0046 [.000]
Snapple\Florida's Natural -0.0030 0.0026 [.236]
Snapple\Minute Maid 0.0040 0.0029 [.175]
Snapple\Tropicana 0.0001 0.0022 [.971]
Capri Sun\Minute Maid -0.0005 0.0011 [.624]
Capri Sun\Newman's Own -0.0026 0.0009 [.002]
Capri Sun\Turkey Hill -0.0011 0.0003 [.001]
Capri Sun\Vita J -0.0002 0.0001 [.181]
Capri Sun\Welch's -0.0007 0.0005 [.170]
Capri Sun\Tropicana -0.0045 0.0015 [.002]
Gatorade\Minute Maid -0.0022 0.0015 [.130]
S Gatorade\Newman's Own -0.0037 0.0011 [.001]
S Gatorade\Turkey Hill -0.0009 0.0004 [.033]
S Gatorade\Vita J -0.0001 0.0002 [.493]
Gatorade\Welch's -0.0010 0.0008 [.231]
Gatorade\Tropicana 0.0026 0.0018 [.154]
Minute Maid\Minute Maid -0.0029 0.0007 [.000]
S Minute Maid\Newman's Own 0.0013 0.0007 [.070]
Minute Maid\Turkey Hill 0.0003 0.0003 [.310]
Minute Maid\Vita J 0.0002 0.0001 [.112]
Minute Maid\Welch's 0.0000 0.0005 [.981]
Minute Maid\Tropicana -0.0012 0.0004 [.002]
POWERade\Minute Maid -0.0002 0.0036 [.962]
POWERade\Newman's Own 0.0013 0.0026 [.626]
POWERade\Turkey Hill 0.0001 0.0009 [.896]
POWERade\Vita J 0.0002 0.0004 [.620]









Table C-5. Continued
Std.
Category Brands Estimate Error P-value
POWERade\Welch's -0.0068 0.0018 [.000]
POWERade\Tropicana -0.0020 0.0031 [.519]
Snapple\Minute Maid -0.0053 0.0022 [.017]
Snapple\Newman's Own -0.0009 0.0016 [.582]
Snapple\Turkey Hill -0.0005 0.0006 [.345]
Snapple\Vita J 0.0002 0.0002 [.531]
Snapple\Welch's -0.0025 0.0010 [.017]
Snapple\Tropicana -0.0046 0.0020 [.020]
Capri Sun\Capri Sun 0.0531 0.0073 [.000]
Capri Sun\Gatorade -0.0176 0.0038 [.000]
Capri Sun\Minute Maid -0.0028 0.0009 [.002]
Capri Sun\POWERade -0.0025 0.0016 [.116]
Capri Sun\Snapple 0.0017 0.0015 [.258]
Gatorade\Capri Sun -0.0182 0.0039 [.000]
Gatorade\Gatorade 0.0908 0.0134 [.000]
Gatorade\Minute Maid -0.0026 0.0012 [.022]
Gatorade\POWERade -0.0056 0.0020 [.004]
Gatorade\Snapple -0.0014 0.0021 [.487]
Minute Maid\Capri Sun -0.0011 0.0004 [.002]
Minute Maid\Gatorade -0.0010 0.0004 [.022]
Minute Maid\Minute Maid 0.0052 0.0013 [.000]
Minute Maid\POWERade 0.0002 0.0005 [.699]
2 Minute Maid\Snapple 0.0022 0.0006 [.000]
S POWERade\Capri Sun -0.0052 0.0033 [.116]
POWERade\Gatorade -0.0115 0.0040 [.004]
POWERade\Minute Maid 0.0011 0.0027 [.699]
POWERade\POWERade 0.0809 0.0115 [.000]
POWERade\Snapple 0.0010 0.0046 [.833]
Snapple\Capri Sun 0.0023 0.0020 [.258]
Snapple\Gatorade -0.0019 0.0027 [.487]
Snapple\Minute Maid 0.0079 0.0020 [.000]
Snapple\POWERade 0.0006 0.0030 [.833]
Snapple\Snapple 0.0110 0.0067 [.098]









Table C-6. Orange juice feature elasticities with respect to other beverages
Category Brands Estimate Std. Error P-value
Florida's Natural 0.0053 0.0041 [.191]
Florida's Natural\Minute Maid -0.0010 0.0007 [.199]
t Florida's Natural\Tropicana -0.0021 0.0017 [.195]
S Minute Maid\Florida's Natural -0.0012 0.0010 [.199]
S Minute Maid\Minute Maid 0.0043 0.0033 [.192]
S Minute Maid\Tropicana -0.0017 0.0013 [.195]
% Tropicana\Florida's Natural -0.0010 0.0008 [.195]
S Tropicana\Minute Maid -0.0006 0.0005 [.195]
O Tropicana\Tropicana 0.0031 0.0024 [.192]
Florida's Natural\Minute Maid 0.0000 0.0001 [.630]
Florida's Natural\Newman's Own -0.0003 0.0002 [.209]
Florida's Natural\Turkey Hill -0.0001 0.0001 [.242]
Florida's Natural\Vita J 0.0000 0.0000 [.267]
Florida's Natural\Welch's -0.0001 0.0001 [.259]
Florida's Natural\Tropicana -0.0002 0.0001 [.226]
Minute Maid\Minute Maid -0.0002 0.0002 [.258]
Minute Maid\Newman's Own -0.0002 0.0002 [.216]
Minute Maid\Turkey Hill 0.0000 0.0000 [.340]
Minute Maid\Vita J 0.0000 0.0000 [.420]
S Minute Maid\Welch's -0.0001 0.0001 [.358]
g Minute Maid\Tropicana -0.0002 0.0002 [.286]
0 Tropicana\Minute Maid -0.0001 0.0001 [.233]
Tropicana\Newman's Own -0.0001 0.0001 [.199]
Tropicana\Turkey Hill 0.0000 0.0000 [.202]
Tropicana\Vita J 0.0000 0.0000 [.217]
Tropicana\Welch's -0.0001 0.0001 [.198]
Tropicana\Tropicana -0.0001 0.0001 [.207]









Table C-6. Continued
Std.
Category Brands Estimate Error P-value
Florida's Natural\Capri Sun -0.0002 0.0002 [.276]
Florida's Natural\Gatorade -0.0007 0.0006 [.217]
Florida's Natural\Minute Maid -0.0003 0.0003 [.214]
Florida's Natural\POWERade -0.0003 0.0002 [.201]
SFlorida's Natural\Snapple -0.0001 0.0001 [.371]
2 Minute Maid\Capri Sun -0.0001 0.0002 [.430]
2 Minute Maid\Gatorade -0.0004 0.0004 [.311]
Minute Maid\Minute Maid 0.0000 0.0001 [.542]
Minute Maid\POWERade -0.0004 0.0003 [.218]
| Minute Maid\Snapple 0.0001 0.0002 [.338]
Tropicana\Capri Sun -0.0003 0.0002 [.206]
Tropicana\Gatorade -0.0005 0.0004 [.203]
Tropicana\Minute Maid 0.0000 0.0000 [.329]
Tropicana\POWERade -0.0002 0.0002 [.200]
Tropicana\Snapple 0.0000 0.0000 [.971]









Table C-7. Fruit juice feature elasticities with respect to other beverages
Std.
Category Brands Estimate Error P-value
Minute Maid\Florida's Natural 0.0001 0.0001 [.630]
Minute Maid\Minute Maid -0.0003 0.0002 [.258]
Minute Maid\Tropicana -0.0003 0.0003 [.233]
Newman's Own\Florida's Natural 0.0000 0.0000 [1.00]
Newman's Own\Minute Maid 0.0000 0.0000 [1.00]
8 Newman's Own\Tropicana 0.0000 0.0000 [1.00]
Turkey Hill\Florida's Natural 0.0000 0.0000 [.242]
STurkey Hill\Minute Maid 0.0000 0.0000 [.340]
Turkey Hill\Tropicana -0.0001 0.0000 [.202]
Vita J\Florida's Natural -0.0003 0.0002 [.267]
SVita J\Minute Maid -0.0001 0.0001 [.420]
SVita J\Tropicana -0.0002 0.0002 [.217]
SWelch's\Florida's Natural -0.0001 0.0001 [.259]
Welch's\Minute Maid -0.0001 0.0001 [.358]
Welch's\Tropicana -0.0002 0.0002 [.198]
Tropicana\Florida's Natural -0.0001 0.0001 [.226]
Tropicana\Minute Maid -0.0001 0.0001 [.286]
Tropicana\Tropicana -0.0001 0.0001 [.207]
Minute Maid\Minute Maid 0.0021 0.0016 [.197]
Minute Maid\Newman's Own -0.0002 0.0002 [.270]
Minute Maid\Turkey Hill 0.0000 0.0000 [.366]
Minute Maid\Vita J 0.0000 0.0000 [.333]
Minute Maid\Welch's 0.0000 0.0001 [.996]
Minute Maid\Tropicana -0.0003 0.0003 [.198]
Newman's Own\Minute Maid 0.0000 0.0000 [1.00]
Newman's Own\Newman's Own 0.0000 0.0000 [1.00]
Newman's Own\Turkey Hill 0.0000 0.0000 [1.00]
Newman's Own\Vita J 0.0000 0.0000 [1.00]
Newman's Own\Welch's 0.0000 0.0000 [1.00]
2 Newman's Own\Tropicana 0.0000 0.0000 [1.00]
Turkey Hill\Minute Maid 0.0000 0.0000 [.366]
Turkey Hill\Newman's Own 0.0000 0.0000 [.753]
Welch's\Minute Maid 0.0003 0.0002 [.192]
Welch's\Newman's Own 0.0000 0.0000 [.331]
Welch' s\Minute Maid -0.0001 0.0000 [.212]
Welch's\Newman's Own 0.0000 0.0000 [.245]









Table C-7. Continued
Std.
Category Brands Estimate Error P-value
Vita J\Minute Maid -0.0001 0.0001 [.333]
Vita J\Newman's Own 0.0001 0.0001 [.560]
Vita J\Turkey Hill -0.0001 0.0001 [.331]
Vita J\Vita J 0.0005 0.0004 [.191]
Vita J\Welch's 0.0001 0.0001 [.286]
SVita J\Tropicana -0.0001 0.0001 [.272]
5 Welch's\Minute Maid 0.0000 0.0001 [.996]
Welch's\Newman's Own -0.0002 0.0002 [.216]
SWelch's\Turkey Hill -0.0001 0.0001 [.212]
Welch's\Vita J 0.0000 0.0000 [.286]
Welch's\Welch's 0.0012 0.0009 [.191]
2 Welch's\Tropicana -0.0001 0.0001 [.221]
Tropicana\Minute Maid -0.0001 0.0001 [.198]
Tropicana\Newman's Own 0.0000 0.0000 [.355]
Tropicana\Turkey Hill 0.0000 0.0000 [.245]
Tropicana\Vita J 0.0000 0.0000 [.272]
Tropicana\Welch's 0.0000 0.0000 [.221]
Tropicana\Tropicana 0.0007 0.0006 [.191]
Minute Maid\Capri Sun 0.0000 0.0001 [.659]
Minute Maid\Gatorade -0.0001 0.0002 [.362]
Minute Maid\Minute Maid -0.0005 0.0004 [.201]
Minute Maid\POWERade 0.0000 0.0001 [.962]
Minute Maid\Snapple -0.0003 0.0002 [.228]
Newman's Own\Capri Sun 0.0000 0.0000 [1.00]
Newman's Own\Gatorade 0.0000 0.0000 [1.00]
SNewman's Own\Minute Maid 0.0000 0.0000 [1.00]
SNewman's Own\POWERade 0.0000 0.0000 [1.00]
SNewman's Own\Snapple 0.0000 0.0000 [1.00]
*I Turkey Hill\Capri Sun 0.0000 0.0000 [.217]
STurkey Hill\Gatorade 0.0000 0.0000 [.261]
2 Turkey Hill\Minute Maid 0.0000 0.0000 [.412]
Turkey Hill\POWERade 0.0000 0.0000 [.896]
Turkey Hill\Snapple 0.0000 0.0000 [.442]
Vita J\Capri Sun -0.0001 0.0001 [.341]
Vita J\Gatorade 0.0000 0.0001 [.538]
Vita J\Minute Maid 0.0002 0.0002 [.314]
Vita J\POWERade 0.0000 0.0001 [.644]









Table C-7. Continued
Std.
Category Brands Estimate Error P-value
Vita J\Snapple 0.0000 0.0001 [.566]
Welch's\Capri Sun 0.0000 0.0000 [.337]
Welch's\Gatorade -0.0001 0.0001 [.371]
Welch's\Minute Maid 0.0000 0.0001 [.981]
SWelch's\POWERade -0.0002 0.0001 [.212]
W Welch's\Snapple -0.0001 0.0001 [.249]
*. Tropicana\Capri Sun -0.0001 0.0001 [.219]
Tropicana\Gatorade 0.0001 0.0001 [.338]
2 Tropicana\Minute Maid -0.0001 0.0001 [.231]
Tropicana\POWERade 0.0000 0.0000 [.566]
Tropicana\Snapple -0.0001 0.0001 [.255]









Table C-8. Fruit drink feature elasticities with respect to other beverages
Category Brands Estimate Std. Error P-value


Minute Maid\Florida's Natural
Minute Maid\Minute Maid
Minute Maid\Tropicana
Turkey Hill\Florida's Natural
Turkey Hill\Minute Maid
Turkey Hill\Tropicana
Vita J\Florida's Natural
Vita J\Minute Maid
Vita J\Tropicana
Welch' sFlorida's Natural
Welch' sMinute Maid
Welch's\Tropicana
Tropicana\Florida's Natural
Tropicana\Minute Maid
Tropicana\Tropicana
Minute Maid\Minute Maid
Minute Maid\Newman's Own
Minute Maid\Turkey Hill
Minute Maid\Vita J
Minute Maid\Welch's
Minute Maid\Tropicana
Turkey Hill\Minute Maid
Turkey Hill\Newman's Own
Welch's\Minute Maid
Welch' s\Newman's Own
Welch' sMinute Maid
Welch' s\Newman's Own
Vita J\Minute Maid
Vita J\Newman's Own
Vita J\Turkey Hill
Vita J\Vita J
Vita J\Welch's
Vita J\Tropicana
Welch' sMinute Maid
Welch' s\Newman's Own
Welch's\Turkey Hill
Welch's\Vita J


0.0001
-0.0003
-0.0003
0.0000
0.0000
-0.0001
-0.0003
-0.0001
-0.0002
-0.0001
-0.0001
-0.0002
-0.0001
-0.0001
-0.0001
0.0021
-0.0002
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
-0.0003
0.0000
0.0000
0.0003
0.0000
-0.0001
0.0000
-0.0001
0.0001
-0.0001
0.0005
0.0001
-0.0001
0.0000
-0.0002
-0.0001
0.0000


0.0001 [.630]
0.0002 [.258]
0.0003 [.233]
0.0000 [.242]
0.0000 [.340]
0.0000 [.202]
0.0002 [.267]
0.0001 [.420]
0.0002 [.217]
0.0001 [.259]
0.0001 [.358]
0.0002 [.198]
0.0001 [.226]
0.0001 [.286]
0.0001 [.207]
0.0016 [.197]
0.0002 [.270]
0.0000 [.366]
0.0000 [.333]
0.0001 [.996]
0.0003 [.198]
0.0000 [.366]
0.0000 [.753]
0.0002 [.192]
0.0000 [.331]
0.0000 [.212]
0.0000 [.245]
0.0001 [.333]
0.0001 [.560]
0.0001 [.331]
0.0004 [.191]
0.0001 [.286]
0.0001 [.272]
0.0001 [.996]
0.0002 [.216]
0.0001 [.212]
0.0000 [.286]









Table C-8. Continued
Category Brands
Welch's\Welch' s
Welch's\Tropicana
Tropicana\Minute Maid
Tropicana\Newman's Own
Tropicana\Turkey Hill
Tropicana\Vita J
Tropicana\Welch's
Tropicana\Tropicana
Minute Maid\Capri Sun
Minute Maid\Gatorade
Minute Maid\Minute Maid
Minute Maid\POWERade
S Minute Maid\Snapple
Turkey Hill\Capri Sun
S Turkey Hill\Gatorade
S Turkey Hill\Minute Maid
Turkey Hill\POWERade
Turkey Hill\Snapple
Vita J\Capri Sun
Vita J\Gatorade
Vita J\Minute Maid
Vita J\POWERade
Vita J\Snapple
Welch's\Capri Sun
Welch's\Gatorade
Welch's\Minute Maid
S Welch's\POWERade
Welch's\Snapple
S Tropicana\Capri Sun
S Tropicana\Gatorade
S Tropicana\Minute Maid
Tropicana\POWERade
Tropicana\Snapple


Estimate
0.0012
-0.0001
-0.0001
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0007
0.0000
-0.0001
-0.0005
0.0000
-0.0003
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
-0.0001
0.0000
0.0002
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
-0.0001
0.0000
-0.0002
-0.0001
-0.0001
0.0001
-0.0001
0.0000
-0.0001


Std. Error
0.0009
0.0001
0.0001
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0006
0.0001
0.0002
0.0004
0.0001
0.0002
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0001
0.0001
0.0002
0.0001
0.0001
0.0000
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.0000
0.0001


P-value
[.191]
[.221]
[.198]
[.355]
[.245]
[.272]
[.221]
[.191]
[.659]
[.362]
[.201]
[.962]
[.228]
[.217]
[.261]
[.412]
[.896]
[.442]
[.341]
[.538]
[.314]
[.644]
[.566]
[.337]
[.371]
[.981]
[.212]
[.249]
[.219]
[.338]
[.231]
[.566]
[.255]









Table C-9. Orange iuice feature and display elasticities


Category Brands Estimate Std. Error P-value
Florida's Natural 0.2341 0.0146 [.000]
Florida's Natural\Minute Maid -0.0417 0.0064 [.000]
o Florida's Natural\Tropicana -0.0941 0.0087 [.000]
E Minute Maid\Florida's Natural -0.0320 0.0049 [.000]
S Minute Maid\Minute Maid 0.1126 0.0089 [.000]
S Minute Maid\Tropicana -0.0447 0.0052 [.000]
g Tropicana\Florida's Natural -0.0386 0.0036 [.000]
Tropicana\Minute Maid -0.0239 0.0028 [.000]
O Tropicana\Tropicana 0.1210 0.0075 [.000]
Florida's Natural\Minute Maid 0.0015 0.0030 [.615]
Florida's Natural\Newman's Own -0.0122 0.0029 [.000]
Florida's Natural\Turkey Hill -0.0028 0.0012 [.016]
Florida's Natural\Vita J -0.0011 0.0005 [.032]
Florida's Natural\Welch's -0.0040 0.0019 [.033]
Florida's Natural\Tropicana -0.0079 0.0026 [.003]
Minute Maid\Minute Maid -0.0051 0.0021 [.018]
Minute Maid\Newman's Own -0.0050 0.0015 [.001]
Minute Maid\Turkey Hill -0.0008 0.0006 [.173]
S Minute Maid\Vita J -0.0002 0.0002 [.315]
Minute Maid\Welch's -0.0015 0.0011 [.187]
Minute Maid\Tropicana -0.0045 0.0025 [.065]
O Tropicana\Minute Maid -0.0034 0.0009 [.000]
Tropicana\Newman's Own -0.0047 0.0008 [.000]
Tropicana\Turkey Hill -0.0016 0.0003 [.000]
Tropicana\Vita J -0.0004 0.0001 [.000]
Tropicana\Welch's -0.0028 0.0005 [.000]
Tropicana\Tropicana -0.0047 0.0011 [.0001


with respect to other beverages









Table C-9. Continued
Category Brands Estimate Std. Error P-value
Florida's Natural\Capri Sun -0.0084 0.0042 [.049]
Florida's Natural\Gatorade -0.0319 0.0087 [.000]
Florida's Natural\Minute Maid -0.0137 0.0043 [.001]
Florida's Natural\POWERade -0.0139 0.0029 [.000]
S Florida's Natural\Snapple -0.0038 0.0032 [.232]
Minute Maid\Capri Sun -0.0037 0.0038 [.332]
Minute Maid\Gatorade -0.0099 0.0063 [.118]
Minute Maid\Minute Maid 0.0011 0.0017 [.491]
Minute Maid\POWERade -0.0101 0.0028 [.000]
|a Minute Maid\Snapple 0.0038 0.0028 [.168]
Tropicana\Capri Sun -0.0102 0.0018 [.000]
Tropicana\Gatorade -0.0209 0.0041 [.000]
Tropicana\Minute Maid -0.0011 0.0008 [.178]
Tropicana\POWERade -0.0086 0.0013 [.000]
Tropicana\Snapple 0.0000 0.0012 [.971]









Table C-10. Fruit juice feature and display elasticities with respect to other beverages
Category Brands Estimate Std. Error P-value
Minute Maid\Florida's Natural 0.0011 0.0021 [.615]
Minute Maid\Minute Maid -0.0048 0.0020 [.018]
Minute Maid\Tropicana -0.0060 0.0016 [.000]
Turkey Hill\Florida's Natural -0.0002 0.0001 [.016]
Turkey Hill\Minute Maid -0.0001 0.0000 [.173]
Turkey Hill\Tropicana -0.0002 0.0000 [.000]
S Vita J\Florida's Natural -0.0034 0.0016 [.032]
o Vita J\Minute Maid -0.0010 0.0010 [.315]
.2 Vita J\Tropicana -0.0030 0.0009 [.000]
S Welch' sFlorida's Natural -0.0019 0.0009 [.033]
Welch's\Minute Maid -0.0009 0.0007 [.187]
Welch's\Tropicana -0.0033 0.0006 [.000]
Tropicana\Florida's Natural -0.0023 0.0008 [.003]
Tropicana\Minute Maid -0.0017 0.0009 [.065]
Tropicana\Tropicana -0.0033 0.0007 [.000]
Minute Maid\Minute Maid 0.0389 0.0035 [.000]
Minute Maid\Newman's Own -0.0041 0.0018 [.024]
Minute Maid\Turkey Hill -0.0008 0.0007 [.222]
Minute Maid\Vita J -0.0004 0.0003 [.145]
S Minute Maid\Welch's 0.0000 0.0011 [.996]
Minute Maid\Tropicana -0.0065 0.0014 [.000]
S Turkey Hill\Minute Maid -0.0001 0.0001 [.222]
Turkey Hill\Newman's Own 0.0000 0.0001 [.747]
S Welch' sMinute Maid 0.0011 0.0001 [.000]
Welch' s\Newman's Own 0.0000 0.0000 [.168]
Welch' s\Minute Maid -0.0002 0.0001 [.000]
Welch's\Newman's Own -0.0018 0.0012 [.145]
Vita J\Minute Maid 0.0010 0.0016 [.519]
Vita J\Newman's Own -0.0012 0.0009 [.168]
Vita J\Turkey Hill 0.0060 0.0010 [.000]
Vita J\Vita J 0.0019 0.0010 [.068]
S Vita J\Welch's -0.0012 0.0006 [.049]
Vita J\Tropicana 0.0000 0.0008 [.996]
Welch' s\Minute Maid -0.0033 0.0009 [.000]
Welch' s\Newman's Own -0.0017 0.0004 [.000]
Welch's\Turkey Hill 0.0003 0.0002 [.068]
Welch's\Vita J 0.0178 0.0014 [.000]
Welch's\Welch's -0.0014 0.0004 [.001]









Table C-10.Continued
Category Brands Estimate Std. Error P-value
Welch's\Tropicana -0.0026 0.0006 [.000]
Tropicana\Minute Maid -0.0005 0.0004 [.191]
Tropicana\Newman's Own -0.0004 0.0002 [.010]
Tropicana\Turkey Hill -0.0001 0.0001 [.049]
Tropicana\Vita J -0.0009 0.0002 [.001]
Tropicana\Welch's 0.0162 0.0013 [.000]
Tropicana\Tropicana -0.0007 0.0013 [.623]
Minute Maid\Capri Sun -0.0026 0.0017 [.126]
Minute Maid\Gatorade -0.0091 0.0020 [.000]
Minute Maid\Minute Maid -0.0001 0.0021 [.962]
Minute Maid\POWERade -0.0048 0.0019 [.013]
Minute Maid\Snapple 0.0000 0.0000 [1.00]
Newman's Own\Capri Sun 0.0000 0.0000 [1.00]
Newman's Own\Gatorade 0.0000 0.0000 [1.00]
Newman's Own\Minute Maid 0.0000 0.0000 [1.00]
Newman's Own\POWERade 0.0000 0.0000 [1.00]
W Newman's Own\Snapple -0.0001 0.0000 [.010]
.2 Turkey Hill\Capri Sun -0.0001 0.0000 [.000]
Turkey Hill\Gatorade -0.0001 0.0000 [.027]
STurkey Hill\Minute Maid 0.0001 0.0001 [.308]
Turkey Hill\POWERade 0.0000 0.0000 [.896]
Turkey Hill\Snapple 0.0000 0.0000 [.344]
Vita J\Capri Sun -0.0009 0.0006 [.174]
Vita J\Gatorade -0.0006 0.0008 [.490]
Vita J\Minute Maid 0.0030 0.0018 [.104]
Vita J\POWERade 0.0005 0.0011 [.619]
Vita J\Snapple 0.0006 0.0009 [.528]
Welch's\Capri Sun -0.0006 0.0004 [.164]
SWelch's\Gatorade -0.0008 0.0006 [.229]
Welch' sMinute Maid 0.0000 0.0010 [.981]
3 Welch's\POWERade -0.0026 0.0007 [.000]
Welch's\Snapple -0.0015 0.0006 [.014]
Tropicana\Capri Sun -0.0022 0.0007 [.001]
STropicana\Gatorade 0.0012 0.0009 [.150]
STropicana\Minute Maid -0.0015 0.0004 [.001]
Tropicana\POWERade -0.0005 0.0007 [.519]
Tropicana\Snapple -0.0016 0.0007 [.017]









Table C- 1. Fruit drink feature and display elasticities


Category Brands Estimate Std. Error P-value
Capri Sun\Florida's Natural -0.0153 0.0078 [.049]
Capri Sun\Minute Maid -0.0089 0.0091 [.332]
.2 Capri Sun\Tropicana -0.0456 0.0082 [.000]
Gatorade\Florida's Natural -0.0201 0.0055 [.000]
2 Gatorade\Minute Maid -0.0081 0.0052 [.118]
Gatorade\Tropicana -0.0320 0.0063 [.000]
POWERade\Florida's Natural -0.0098 0.0021 [.000]
SPOWERade\Minute Maid -0.0093 0.0025 [.000]
POWERade\Tropicana -0.0148 0.0022 [.000]
2 Snapple\Florida's Natural -0.0095 0.0079 [.232]
Snapple\Minute Maid 0.0123 0.0089 [.168]
Snapple\Tropicana 0.0003 0.0070 [.971]
Capri Sun\Minute Maid -0.0017 0.0034 [.623]
Capri Sun\Newman's Own -0.0083 0.0025 [.001]
Capri Sun\Turkey Hill -0.0035 0.0010 [.000]
Capri Sun\Vita J -0.0005 0.0004 [.174]
Capri Sun\Welch's -0.0023 0.0017 [.164]
Capri Sun\Tropicana -0.0143 0.0043 [.001]
Gatorade\Minute Maid -0.0023 0.0015 [.126]
Gatorade\Newman's Own -0.0039 0.0011 [.000]
8 Gatorade\Turkey Hill -0.0009 0.0004 [.027]
Gatorade\Vita J -0.0001 0.0002 [.490]
Gatorade\Welch's -0.0010 0.0008 [.229]
Gatorade\Tropicana 0.0027 0.0019 [.150]
POWERade\Minute Maid 0.0000 0.0000 [1.00]
POWERade\Newman's Own 0.0000 0.0000 [1.00]
SPOWERade\Turkey Hill -0.0001 0.0020 [.962]
SPOWERade\Vita J 0.0007 0.0015 [.626]
POWERade\Welch's 0.0001 0.0005 [.896]
POWERade\Tropicana 0.0001 0.0002 [.619]
Snapple\Minute Maid -0.0039 0.0010 [.000]
Snapple\Newman's Own -0.0012 0.0018 [.519]
Snapple\Turkey Hill -0.0166 0.0067 [.013]
Snapple\Vita J -0.0028 0.0050 [.580]
Snapple\Welch's -0.0017 0.0018 [.344]
Snapple\Tropicana 0.0005 0.0007 [.528]


with respect to other beverages









Table C-11. Continued
Category Brands
Capri Sun\Capri Sun
Capri Sun\Gatorade
Capri Sun\Minute Maid
Capri Sun\POWERade
Capri Sun\Snapple
Gatorade\Capri Sun
4 Gatorade\Gatorade
c Gatorade\Minute Maid
Gatorade\POWERade
Gatorade\Snapple
SPOWERade\Capri Sun
SPOWERade\Gatorade
SPOWERade\Minute Maid
SPOWERade\POWERade
POWERade\Snapple
Snapple\Capri Sun
Snapple\Gatorade
Snapple\Minute Maid
Snapple\POWERade
Snapple\Snapple


Estimate
0.1669
-0.0552
-0.0089
-0.0078
0.0053
-0.0190
0.0947
-0.0028
-0.0059
-0.0015
-0.0030
-0.0066
0.0006
0.0465
0.0006
0.0072
-0.0059
0.0245
0.0020
0.0343


Std. Error
0.0115
0.0102
0.0027
0.0049
0.0047
0.0035
0.0098
0.0012
0.0020
0.0021
0.0019
0.0022
0.0016
0.0045
0.0027
0.0063
0.0085
0.0056
0.0094
0.0203


P-value
[.000]
[.000]
[.001]
[.110]
[.255]
[.000]
[.000]
[.019]
[.003]
[.485]
[.110]
[.003]
[.699]
[.000]
[.833]
[.255]
[.485]
[.000]
[.833]
[.092]









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BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH

Erika Knight was born in Warner Robins, GA, in 1981. She entered Fort Valley State

University in 1999 and earned a Bachelor of Science degree in agricultural economics in 2003.

In August 2004, Erika joined the Food and Resource Economics Department at the University of

Florida to further her education. After completing the Master of Science program in 2004, Erika

continued into the PhD program within the same department and earned her PhD in 2008.





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1 IMPACT OF PROMOTIONAL TACTICS ON CONSUMERS DEMAND FOR FRUIT JUICES By ERIKA PATRICE KNIGHT A DISSERTATION PRESENTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL OF THE UNIVERSITY OF FLOR IDA IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA 2008

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2 2008 Erika Patrice Knight

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3 To my mother and father.

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4 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS First and foremost, I thank God for giving me the strength I needed to successfully complete this Ph.D. program. I know it only becau se of His grace and mercy that I have had the remarkable opportunity. I thank parents, husband, sisters, and remaining family and friends for their unwavering support, words of encouragement and patience throughout the past the years. These individuals are another reason I have made it to this point of my life. I express my deepest appreciation to my advi sor Lisa House, for her continuous support, guidance, advisement, and knowledge shared th roughout my journey through graduate school. I also grateful for her advisement, guidance, and knowledge shared while completing my dissertation. A special thanks goe s to Jonq-Ying Lee, who is respons ible for helping me with my empirical analysis. Without his patience and guida nce I could not have finished this dissertation. I would also like to thank my remaining committee members, Drs. Thomas Spreen, Mark Brown, and Steve Shugan for interest and support while preparing my dissertatio n. Finally, I would like to thank McKnight staff and Food and Resource Economics Department and my fellow graduate students in the Food and Resource Economics Depart ment for their support and encouragement.

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5 TABLE OF CONTENTS page ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ............................................................................................................... 4LIST OF TABLES ...........................................................................................................................7LIST OF FIGURES .........................................................................................................................9ABSTRACT ...................................................................................................................... .............10CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................. 11Background .................................................................................................................... .........11Researchable Problem ............................................................................................................20Objectives .................................................................................................................... ...........21Outline ....................................................................................................................................212 LITERATURE REVIEW .......................................................................................................223 THEORETICAL MODEL ...................................................................................................... 27Consumer Dema nd Theory ..................................................................................................... 27Separability and Multi-Stage Budgeting ................................................................................ 39The Rotterdam Model ........................................................................................................... ..43Aggregation Issues ..................................................................................................................454 DATA SOURCE AND DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS ......................................................... 46Data Sources ...........................................................................................................................46Separability Model ............................................................................................................ ......47Promotional Model ............................................................................................................. ....50Retailer X ........................................................................................................................50Retailer Z .........................................................................................................................535 EMPIRICAL MODEL ............................................................................................................58Empirical Models .............................................................................................................. ......58Separability Model .......................................................................................................... 58Promotional Model .......................................................................................................... 62

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6 6 RESULTS ....................................................................................................................... ........66 Separability Model ............................................................................................................ ......66Promotional Models ............................................................................................................ ....68Retailer X .........................................................................................................................68Retailer Z .........................................................................................................................727 CONCLUSIONS AND IM PLICATIONS ............................................................................. 91APPENDIX A SEPARABILITY MODEL PARAMETER ESTIMATES .................................................... 94B RETAILER X PARAMETER ESTIMATES AND PROMOTIONAL ELASTICITIES.. ... 99C RETAILER Z PARAMETER ESTIMATES AND PROMOTIONAL ELASTICITIES ...126LIST OF REFERENCES .............................................................................................................149BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH .......................................................................................................156

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7 LIST OF TABLES Table page 1-1 United State juice mark et value: $ billion, 2001-2005 .....................................................13 1-2 United States liquid refr eshment beverage market ............................................................ 15 1-3 Top variety of bottled juices ............................................................................................ ..17 1-4 Total gallons of beverages purchased in U.S. grocery outlets earning more than $2 million in sales (in thousands of gallons) .......................................................................... 20 1-5 Percent of beverages purchased on a d eal at grocery outlets earning more than $2 million in sales .............................................................................................................. .....20 4-1 Separability model descriptive statistics ............................................................................49 4-2 Retailer X desc riptive statistics .........................................................................................52 4-3 Retailer X promotional activit ies sample statistics (in % ACV) ...................................... 53 4-4 Retailer Z sample statistics ................................................................................................56 4-6 Retailer Z sample statistics for promotional activities (in % ACV) ................................. 57 5-1 Separability model codes ................................................................................................. ..61 5-2 Retailer X variable description ..........................................................................................64 5-3 Retailer Z codes ................................................................................................................65 6-2 Separability results ..................................................................................................... ........67 6-2 Retailer X Expenditure Elasticities .................................................................................... 69 6-3 Retailer Z Expenditure Elasticities .................................................................................... 74 6-4 Orange juice own and cross category comp ensated price elasticities for Retailer X ........ 77 6-5 Fruit juice own and cross category comp ensated price elastici ties for Retailer X ............79 6-6 Fruit drink own and cross category comp ensated price elastici ties for Retailer X ............81 6-7 Orange juice own and cross category co m pensated price elasticities for Retailer Z ........ 84 6-8 Fruit juice own and cross category comp ensated price elastici ties for Retailer Z ............. 86 6-9 Fruit drink own and cross category comp ensated price elastici ties for Retailer Z ............ 89

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8 A-1 Marginal propensity to consume estimates ........................................................................ 94 A-2 Separability model Slutsky coefficients .............................................................................95 B-1 Marginal Expenditure Shares .............................................................................................99 B-2 Parameter Estimates ...................................................................................................... ...100 B-3 Orange juice display elasticitie s with respect to other beverages .................................... 103 B-4 Fruit Juice display elasticities with respect to other beverages ....................................... 105 B-5 Fruit Drink display elasticities with respect to other beverages ...................................... 108 B-6 Orange juice feature elasticitie s with respect to other beverages .................................... 111 B-7 Fruit Juice feature elasticities with respect to other beverages ........................................ 113 B-8 Fruit drink feature elasticities with respect to other beverages ........................................ 116 B-9 Orange juice feature and display elasticities with respect to other beverages ................. 119 B-10 Fruit juice feature and display elasti cities with respect to other beverages ..................... 121 B-11 Fruit drinks feature a nd display elasticities with re spect to other beverages ................... 123 C-1 Marginal propensity to consume estimates ...................................................................... 126 C-2 Promotional and Slutsky coefficients for Retailer Z ........................................................ 127 C-3 Orange juice display elasticitie s with respect to other beverages .................................... 130 C-4 Fruit juice display elasticities with respect to other beverages ........................................ 132 C-5 Fruit drink display elasticities with respect to other beverages ....................................... 134 C-6 Orange juice feature elasticitie s with respect to other beverages .................................... 136 C-7 Fruit juice feature elasticities with respect to other beverages ........................................ 138 C-8 Fruit drink feature elasticities with respect to other beverages ........................................ 141 C-9 Orange juice feature and display elasticities with respect to other beverages ................. 143 C-10 Fruit juice feature and display elasti cities with respect to other beverages .................... 145 C-11 Fruit drink feature and display elasti cities with respect to other beverages .................... 147

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9 LIST OF FIGURES Figure page 1-1 ACNielsen homescan da ta beverage categories ................................................................12 1-2 United States juice market segment by % share, by volume 2005 .................................... 141-3 United States juices market segment by % share, by volume 200 .....................................141-4 Changes in consumers beve rage expenditures from 2004 to 2005 .................................. 161-5 Per capita consumption fo r selected fruit juices ................................................................ 17 1-6 Orange juice per capita consumption ................................................................................. 18 4-1 Separability model expe nditure share, by brands ..............................................................48 4-2 Retailer X expenditure share by brands .............................................................................514-3 Retailer Z expenditure share by brands .............................................................................55

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10 Abstract of Dissertation Pres ented to the Graduate School of the University of Florida in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy IMPACT OF PROMOTION TACTICS ON CONSUMERS DEMAND FOR FRUIT JUICES By Erika Knight August 2008 Chair: Lisa House Major: Food and Resource Economics The high level of beverage assortment in supermarkets has dramatically changed beverage consumption patterns and trends throughout the United States. With more firms contending for consumers dollars, companies u tilize price and non-pric e promotional strategies to increase market share of their brands. The primary objective of this study is to understand the interrelationship between brands of orange juice and brands of other juice beverages. To accomplish this goal it is imperative to understa nd how consumers allocate total beverage expenditures by empirically testing block-wise sepa rability among orange juice, fruit juices, and fruit drinks. Secondly, this study analyzes the impact of reta il promotions on the demand for beverages in the previously men tioned categories using AC Nielsen scanner data for major retail outlets earning more than $2 million in sales. Results from the absolute price version of the Rotterdam indicate that consumers do not perceive orange juice, fruit jui ces, and fruit drinks as separable categories. Findings also suggest that displays combined with feature advertisement had the la rgest impact on demand. Display only and feature only were also significant and had a positive impact on marginal utility. The majority of the beverage brands includ ed in this study were deal inelastic.

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11 CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION This chapter introduces the research problem for the United States beverage market. The background, the researchable problem, and study objectives are provided followed by the organization of the dissertation. Background The nonalcoholic beverage market is highly competitive, as evidence by numerous new products introduced on an annual basis. In 2004 the nonalcoholic beverage market was estimated to be worth $79 billion; however, this market has expe rienced minimal real growth in recent years. This stagnation is partly attri buted to the segments of the markets such as carbonated soft drinks, fruit juices, and milk, wh ich are mature markets (Nonalcoholic Beverages 2004). Within the beverage industry, orange ju ice is the most popular juice, but orange crop shortages in recent years have le d to increased juice prices making substitutable products more attractive. With more brands competing for consumers dollars retailers and brand manufacturers implement various promotional strategies with the intention of increasing sales and altering consumption patterns. As consumer encounter more variety in th eir beverage choices, retailers and juice manufacturers experience intense pressure from competitors. For example, ready to drink (RTD) fruit drinks, sports drinks, energy drinks, a nd teas are categories within the nonalcoholic beverage industry battling for a percentage of consumers bevera ge expenditures (Figure 1-1). Thus, is important for brand managers, retailer s, and other industry o fficials to understand demand interrelationships among the various beverages.

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12 Figure 1-1. ACNielsen homescan data beverage categories Sour ce: Capps, Clauson, Guthrie, Pittman, and Stockton 2005

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13 The United States juice market is a part of the nonalcoholic beverage industry and consists of 100% fruit juice (from concentrate), 100% fruit juice (not from concentrate), nectar (30 to 99% juice), fruit drinks (0 to 29 % juice) and vegetable juice. Th is sector posted slow but steady growth rates throughout 2001-2007 with consumption increasing at constant annual growth rate of 1 % between 2001 through 2005. Revenue for the juice market grew by 1.8% in 2005 reaching a value of $19.4 billion (Figure 1-2). In 2005, 100% fruit juice (from concentrate) represented the largest segment in the juice market accounting fo r 26.3% of the markets overall volume. Sales of fruit drinks were a close second, accounting for 26% of the markets total volume (Datamonitor 2006). However by 2006, fruit dr inks were the most lucrative segment in the juice market, generating 34.5% of the markets revenue (Datamonitor 2007). Meager growth in overall volume suggests that consumers are switching from one beverage to another igniting intense competition between brands. Table 1-1. United State juice ma rket value: $ billion, 2001-2005 Year Market Value (in $ billions) % Growth 2001 18.1 2002 18.2 0.90 2003 18.7 2.70 2004 19.1 1.70 2005 19.4 1.80 Constant Average Growth Rate, 20012005 1.8% (Source: Datamonitor, 2006)

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14 Friut Drinks 34% 100% Fruit Juice (NFC) 23% 100% Fruit Juice (FC) 21% Vegetable Juice 13% Nectar 9% Figure 1-2. United States juice market segment by % share, by volume 2005 Source: Datamonitor, 2006 Figure 1-3. United States juices market segment by % share, by volume 2007 Source: Datamonitor, 2007 Friut Drinks 34% 100% Fruit Juice (NFC) 22% 100% Fruit Juice (FC) 21% Vegetable Juice 13% Nectar 10%

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15 As the number of types of beverages in supermarkets increased, U.S beverage consumption patterns and trends have changed. While overall market growth has been minimal, some beverage segments within the market have experienced dramatic grow th. According to the Beverage Marketing Corporation, consumption (in gallons) of carbonated soft drinks (CSDs) and fruit beverages declined duri ng 2004 through 2006; whereas, cons umptions of energy drinks, sport drinks, and RTD coffee and teas has subs tantially increased (Table 1-2). Similarly, changes in beverages sales from 2004 to 2005 (F igure 1-4) indicate energy and sport drinks experienced significant increases (65.9 % and 20. 6 % respectively). Refrigerated juice sales increased a mere 2.2 %, shelved non-fruit drinks decreased 0.9 %, bottled juices and cocktails both decreased 1.5 % and frozen juice sales d ecreased by 12.8 % (Food Industry Review, 2006). Table 1-2. United States liquid refreshment beverage market Segments Millions of Gallons % Change 2004 2005 2006 04/05 05/06 CSDs 15,367.215,271.615,103.3 -0.6 -1.1 Bottled Water 6,806.7 75,37.1 8,253.110.7 9.5 Fruit Beverages 4,187.3 4,119.0 4,020.1 -1.6 -2.4 Sports Drinks 1,000.8 1,207.5 1,348.820.7 11.7 RTD Tea 509.9 555.9 701.5 9.0 26.2 Energy Drinks 84.5 152.5 227.480.5 49.1 RTD Coffee 31.7 38.9 43.023.0 10.4 Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation

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16 Figure 1-4. Changes in consumers beverage expenditures from 2004 to 2005 In addition to changes in expenditure, per cap ita availability of orange juice and other selected fruit juice have changed over time (Table 1-3, Figure 1-5 and Figure 1-6). Consumption trends for citrus fruit juices and fruit drinks, ades and cocktails ha ve been steadily declining. The decrease in consumption can be partly expl ained by the increased in popularity of lowcarbohydrate diets such as the Atkins diet which encouraged dieters to reduce or completely eliminate their fruit ju ice intake (Cogrove 2005; Love 2005). The decline in orange juice consumption observed from 2004 to the present can also be explained by additional events. In 2004, the citrus industry experienced immense da mage from one of the harshest hurricanes seasons in history when hurricanes Charley, Fr ancis and Jeanne rampag ed through the Florida peninsula, the primary provider of orange juice within the United States. In addition to the hurricanes, citrus canker, a disease that dramatically decreases the productivity of citrus trees, poses a major threat and damages to current and fu ture orange crops (Zansler 2004). As a result of the smaller orange crops, brands such as PepsiCos Tropicana increased wholesale orange prices 3 to 5 % (Beverage Industry 2004). The Fl orida Department of Citrus announced plans to -15.0% -5.0% 5.0% 15.0% 25.0% 35.0% 45.0% 55.0% 65.0% Frozen Juices Canned Juices Bottled Juices Non-Fruit (SS) RFG Juices & Drinks RFG Teas/Coffee Sports Drinks Energy Drinks Source: Food Industr y Review 2005.

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17 spend $3 million to promote orange juice in an effort to improve consumption which had declined 1.6 % annually since 2001. Table 1-3. Top variety of bottled juices Variety Dollar Sales % Change From Prior Year Apple Juice $ 542,221,100 -0.4 Cranberry Cocktail Juice/Drinks $ 618,726,600 -2.5 Cranberry Juice/Juice Blends $ 155,709,900 -8.2 Fruit Drinks $ 722,495,400 1.7 Fruit Juice Blends $ 235,680,200 0.6 Grape Juice $ 225,680,200 -7.3 Grapefruit Juice $ 52,241,200 12.4 Lemonade $ 146,340,100 20.2 Orange Juice $ 29,041,880 -31.5 Tomato/Vegetable Juice/Cocktails $ 290,271,700 -1.3 Source: Cosgrove 2005 Figure 1-5. Per capita consumpti on for selected fruit juices 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.01985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005Per Capita Consumption Citrus Fruit Juices Non-Citrus Fruit Juices Fruit Drinks, Ades, cocktails Vegetable Juices

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18 Figure 1-6. Orange juic e per capita consumption Generic and brand promotions are utilized develop or expand the market for many agricultural commodities and alte r consumption patterns (Lee, Fairchild, and Behr 1988). The fundamental objective of each promotional pr ogram is the same, but the methods of implementation and funding of each program differs. Generic promotional programs are promoted by producers and the aim of these progr ams is to increase consumption of a specific commodity or food product. Generic advertisin g is designed to encourage consumers to experiment with a particular product category and remind consumers to become repeat purchasers. Marketing firms utilize brand advertising to expand sales or increase market share for a particular brand of commodity or food product. This form of promotion is used to persuade consumer to select a particular brand within a certain product categor y and to influence the consumers preferences for certain commodity attributes. Brand advertising is also intended to redirect the consumers attenti on to a particular brand with th e purpose of making the consumer a repeat buyer. The precipitation and reminder mechanisms are more inclined to increase total 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.01991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 SSE Gallons Orange Juice

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19 product or industry sales while persuasion and re inforcement are related to maintaining or increasing market shares of specific brand (Lee, Fairchild, and Behr 1988). With more brands contending for consumers dollars, retailers util ize price and non-price promotional strategies to stimulate short-term sales and revenu e and to increase store traffic (Inman and Leigh 1993; Blattberg, Briesch a nd Fox 1995; Kumar and Leone 1988). Temporary price reductions (TPR), f eature advertising, and displays are common tactics used is the grocery business to direct consumers attention to a sp ecific brand or product lin e. In this study, a temporary price reduction occurs wh en the product is sold from its normal shelf location at price discount greater than 5 % of regul ar price that cannot that last longer than six weeks. Feature advertising is regarded as any published print advertis ement such as newspaper advertisements, neighborhood mailers, and in-store circular medi a. Grocery retailers believe that feature advertising is a cost effective method of informing consumers of in-store specials offered in an effort to increase the stores profitability. Di splays are secondary locations away from the normal shelf stocking location increa sing the products visibility. Over 14 billion gallons of beve rages were purchased in U.S. grocery outlets in 2002. This amount decreased to approximately 9 billion in 2 009 (Table 1-4). This downward trend was also observed for fruit drink, fruit jui ces, and orange juice. Consumer s were inclined to purchase beverages when they perceived th e products price was on a deal (T able 1-5). For example, in 2004 nearly 57 % of all orange juice was purchased when the buyer felt that the purchase price was a deal, but this % d eclined to 45 % in 2006.

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20 Table 1-4. Total gallons of beverages purchased in U.S. grocery outlets earning more than $2 million in sales (in thousands of gallons) Segment 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Total Beverages 14,185,696 14,968,874 14,644,435 9,232,827 9,253,420 Fruit Drinks 1,108,705 1,178,166 1,191,552 754,520 749,151 Fruit Juices 430,939 452,406 442,385 283,074 722,661 Orange Juice 759,141 770,374 729,003 491,806 442,206 Isotonics 148,913 104,285 97,227 65,224 67,580 Sunny Delight 88,753 91,484 81,172 43,796 N/A Source: Florida Department of Citrus 2007 Table 1-5. Percent of beverages purchased on a d eal at grocery outlets earning more than $2 million in sales Segment 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Total Beverages 47.4%49.6%47.2%43.3%38.4% Fruit Drinks 51.6%54.1%53.1%49.3%42.2% Fruit Juices 53.2%55.1%53.5%49.3%41.6% Orange Juice 56.2%58.6%57.1%50.7%45.0% Isotonics 53.9%53.5%53.5%52.0%45.8% Source: Florida Department of Citrus 2007 Researchable Problem Due to the changes in consumption th e beverage industr y has undergone many transformations. All other things being equal, consumer theory st ates that a shift in demand for one good will be compensated by shifts in the op posite direction in the demand for other good. Brand manufacturers and re tailers must continue to monitor the ever-changing beverage retailing landscape to ensure profitability. Thus, in an effort to better understand how consumers make beverage purchase decisions, this study examines the competitiveness and structure of the beverage industry. To accomplish this goal sepa rability tests are conducted among refrigerated orange juice, refrigerated fruit juices, and shelf stable fruit drinks. This study contributes to the existing body of literature by providing information on consumers behavior regarding beverage purchases, the structure of the be verage industry and implications for the industry in the future.

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21 Objectives In an effort to better underst and consumer behavior regardin g juice purchase patterns, the primary objective of this research is to evaluate the impact of three retail promotion strategies (feature advertisements without displays, display advertisemen t without feature ads, and a combination of feature ads and displays) on cons umers demand for orange and grapefruit juice along with other fruit drinks Specific objectives are: To develop econometric models for analyzing demand relationships between brands in the previously mentioned juice categorie s using store level scanner data. To examine the degree of separa bility between refrigerated and shelved juice/ drink products. To estimate own price, cross price and promoti onal elasticities for specified brands in each beverage category. To compare and contrast the impact of prom otion across stores adopting different pricing philosophies. To discuss the marketing implications associated with the empirical results. Outline The dissertation is organized as follows: Chap ter 2 consist of a literature review of the impact of promotions on demand and retail sales. The chapter contains a re view literature where beverage demand and structure of th e beverage industry is analyzed. In chapter 3, consumer demand theory is developed and different versions of the Rotterdam model used to empirically test for sepa rability and evaluate th e impact of promotional tactics on demand are derived. Chapter 4 contains a discussion of the data sources and key descriptive statistics. Chapter 5 and 6 include the system of equations that are empirically applied to data and results from the empirical models. Finally, chapter 7 includes the conclusion and marketing implications.

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22 CHAPTER 2 LITERATURE REVIEW Manufacturers and retailers spend billions of dollars each year on promotion, but entity uses promotions for different reasons. When promoting brands, the objec tives of manufacturers include the following: (1) increasing consum ption by current users, (2) motivate brand substitution, and (3) motivate category substitu tion. The retailers primary objective is to maximize store profits, which can be achieved by maximizing profits for each product category. It is imperative for both manuf acturers and retailers to evaluate the effectiveness and financial impact of promotional tactics. Chain-brand models allow retailers to calculate the incremental sales from a given promotion allowing them to compute the profitability of the promotional program. Manufacturers desire th ese models because the information provided from running them enables the manufacturers to persuade th e chain to promote their brand. This chapter reviews the existing body of literature that evaluates the impact of retail promotion on consumer demand and retailer and l iterature that explains the structure of the beverage industry. Several studies in the marketing literature ha ve evaluated the impact of retail promotions on retail sales and brand choice using household panel and scanner data (Prasad and Ring 1976; Cotton and Babb 1978; Guadangi and Little 1983; Walters 1991; Dekimpe, Hanssens, and SilvaRisso 1999; Bell, Chaing, and Padmanabhan 1999; Van Heerde, Leeflang, Wittink 2000; Kumar, Rajiv and Jeuland 2001; Pauwels, Hanssens, a nd Siddarth 2002). Pr ice reductions, feature advertisements, and in-store displays are types of retail promotions that have the ability to increase current period sales, but also alter c onsumer purchasing habits by changing consumers perceptions of the promoted good (Gao and Lee 1995). Scanner data has made it possible to analyze the impacts of retail promotions on cons umer behavior. Studies suggest that price reductions and displays are more powerful in in creasing short term sales when compared to

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23 newspaper advertisements. Additionally, when prior purchases were made on display and feature promotions or when pri ce reductions were paired with displays or features following purchases increased (Wilkinson, Mason, and Paks oy 1982; Papatla and Krishnanmurthi 1996). Blattberg, Briesch and Fox (1995) surveyed the promtional lite rature to develop generalizations, which are based on consistent findings among mutliple studies. One significant conclusion is that high market share brands ar e less deal elastic (Bo lton 1989; Vilcassim and Chintaguanta 1995). Moriarty (1985) and Wood side and Waddle (1975) found sales were very responsive to temprorary price reductions. However, these studies also suggest that it is difficult to isoloate the influence other promotional tactics have on sales. Gupta (1988) and van Heerde, Leeflang and Wittink (2004) decomposed the sales spike to find that the majority of sales increases were attributed to brand substitution w ithin a store, purchase time acceleration, and the stockpiling effect was minor. Th ese results conflict with V ilcassim and Chintaguanta (1995) whom suggests switching does not account for the majority of the volume. Similarly, Kumar and Leone (1988) found that increases in sales can be attributed to two factors, brand substitution within a store and cross-shopping caused by price promotions and feature and display advertisements. This study also develops two propositions. The first proposition states a stores price promotion, featuring, and disp lay activities for a specific brand positively affect that stores sales of the brand and negatively affect sales of the brands competitors within the store. The second proposition states that for a given product cat egory, if two stores within a geographic area are competitors, one stores price promotion, featuring, and display activities for a specific brand negatively affect the sales of that brand and competing bran ds at the other store. Literature also suggests that price cuts and feature ads en courage consumers to cross-shop amongst stores which positively impact sales, ho wever, research has conflicted on the impact

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24 promotions have on the % change in sales and th e duration of the promotional effect. Moriarty (1985) suggests that promotions cause sales displacement and reductions in both current and future demand for competitor products (subst itution effects). The study found sales of a promoted product will increase and future sales w ill decrease as a result of current promotional activity. Purchase acceleration is higher as the package size of the product becomes larger. Consumer are less likely to stockpile smaller size product because these products are viewed as convenience products. Additionally, purchase acceler ation is more likely to happen for feature and display merchandising rather than price re ductions (Abraham a nd Lodish 1993). Shoaf (1997) also found a decline in the repurchase rate at a promotion, suggesting stockpiling. Trotten and Block (1987) and McAlister ( 1986) report no evidence of stockpiling. A study conducted by Walters and MacKenzie (1988) found th at store traffic, sa les and profit did not exhibit significant increases in response to promotions. Dekimpe, Hanssens, and Ailva-Risso (1999) estimated the permanent effects of promoti ons and found that this effect did not exist. From these findings one can conclude that the imp act of promotions on sale s is usually confined to the period that the promotion occurs. As the retailing environment becomes more compet itive, retailers invest more resources in developing strategies to maxi mize store profits. Existing res earch provides micromarketing strategies that will assist retailers in devel oping optimal promotional strategies. Hoch et al (1995) suggest that stores isolat ed from competitors are less deal sensitive. Kumar, Rajiv, and Jeuland (2004) found that retailers prefer to offer promotions on products for which switching customers have stronger demand than loyal custom ers and/or for which the price sensitivity of demand is high for both switching and loyal custom ers. Simester (1995) found that in order to receive maximum economic rents, firms should offer deeper promotions on products which

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25 enjoy complementary relationships with other pro ducts sold by the firm rather than on products for which the firm sells a substitute. Promoti ons are found to encourag e store profits because customers are exposed to low margin promoted products and full margin nonpromoted products Researchers have analyzed the impact of retail purchase on the demand for beverages but the majority of exisiting reseach concerning ju ice beverages focuses on the impact of generic advertising on commodity demand while few studies investigate the impact of brand advertising on demand (Lee 1981; Gao and Lee 1995; Zheng a nd Henry 2004; Lee, Fairchild and Behr, 1988). The objectives of generic promotions differ drastically from the nature of brand promotions (Brester and Schroeder 1995). Generi c promotions are designed to increase overall demand for a specific group of commodities and br and promotion are expected to increase the salse of a specfic brand. Lee, Fairchild and Behr (1988) found that brand advertising did not have a substantial impact on sales of orange juic e and that brand advertsing is associated with maintaining or increasing marketshares, while declines in commodity advertising (generic) resulted in a reduction in orange juice consum ption. Another study conducted by Brown and Lee (1997) found brand promotions changed only the brands perceived price. Brand promotional cross price elasticities were smaller than generic promotion elasticities. In fact, several brand elasticities were close to zero. Br own and Lee (2007) used a differen tial approach to estimate the impact of four promotional tactics on the de mand for 12 beverages and found cross promotional effects tended to offset own promotional effect s which were all postive. The intercepts for orange juice, grapefruit juice, apple juice, milk, and grape juice were negative, suggesting demand for these beverages has declined over time Remaining juice, tea, and water possessed positive coefficients, signifying growth in demand. The study also suggests that if retailers

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26 promoted only one brand at a time the demand fo r juice drinks would in crease 23% and orange and grapefriut juice demands would increase 15.3 % and 25 %, respectively. Nelson and Morgan (1995), Zhen and Kinnu can (2004), and Zhen, Kinnucan, and Kaiser (2007) evaluate the impact of generic advertis ing on demand curves for nonahcolic beverages. Results from theses studies indicate that advertising influences own pr ice elasticities through a combinations of outward shifts and rotation. Advertising shifts and rotate demand curves by changing the price people are w illing to pay for a product. The overall impact of promotions on goods belonging to different categories depends on the nature of the underlying preference structure. Numerous studies have examined the orange juice industry to identify competitors, but studies have not tested for separability within the fruit juice market. Brown, Lee, and Seale (1994) tested for strong separabil ity between fresh fruits, fruit juices, and tomato juices and failed to reject the hypothesis of strong separabil ity. Suggesting that the marginal utility of fruit juices is not affected by an increase marginal expe nditures of fresh fruit or tomato juice. Brown and Lee (2000, 2007), Brown, Lee and Seal e (1992,1994), and Lee, Jong-Ying (1984) successfully identified juice beverage that are substitutes for orange juice, but the studies do not consider the impact of sport dri nks on this demand. Several studies have tested for separability within the meat market (Nayga and Capps 1994; Eales and Unnevehr 1988; Hayes, Wahl and Williams 1990), however, a this type of disaggregate model has not been used to evaluate the manner in which consumers allocate their beverage expenditure. This study will contribute to the existing body of literature by providing inform ation on consumers behavior towards their beverage purchases and the structure of this beverage industry, which is the second largest component of the food and beverage manufacturing industry (ERS, 2005).

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27 CHAPTER 3 THEORETICAL MODEL Consumer Demand Theory Consumer demand theory is used to inve stigate demand interrelationship between different beverage categories and brands of be verages. Consumption theory enables economists to analyze the market structure of the beverage industry; specifically the fruit juice and fruit drink markets, by using the concept of separabilit y. This theory involves the analysis of the change in marginal utilities of one product due to a change in consumption of a closely related product. The changes in marginal utilities are related to the price substitution terms of demand functions. Consumer Demand Analysis Consumer behavior models are used to an alyze decisions made by both individuals and households. Economists assume that given a budge t and information pertai ning to the prices of commodities, consumers exhibit optimizing be havior when making choices constrained by psychological factors (i.e. preferences). Consumers are expected to behave rationally, which is a result of having a well-defined preference set. Preference sets must fulfill the following axioms: reflexivity, completeness, transitivity, contin uity, convexity and non-sa tiation. Reflexivity, completeness, and transitivity define preordering of the preference set. When numeric values are assigned to the bundles of goods and services preference ordering can be represented by a utility function. Bundles given higher values or perceived to provide higher utility are preferred to those with lower values or lower utility. All of the previously mentioned axioms allow economists to transition from preferences to utility and address the constrained utility maximization problem.

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28 The theoretical framework for utility maxi mization problem is well documented by Deaton and Muellbauer (1980), Theil (1980), a nd Phlips (1983). A utility function, U(x1, x2,, xn) is a mapping of the consumers preferences regarding a bundle of goods or services at a particular point in time. It measures the overall satisfa ction an individual receives from consuming a specific bundle. It is more convenient to discus s utility function rather than preferences sets; however, utility functions possess three primary s hortcomings. Utility functions are inestimable, unobservable, and ordinal. Because of the ordina l nature, utility functions are only defined as monotonically increasing. Despite th ese disadvantages, a utility function is extremely useful when paired with a linear budget constraint, as it provides, enough inform ation to evaluate the consumer allocation problem. The constrained utility maximization problem assumes that given a fixed amount of income to spend, an individual will buy those quan tities that exhaust tota l income. Promotional variables are incorporated directly into the utility function as an indicator of consumer prefernces (Theil 1980; Duffy 1987; Brown and Lee 2002,2007). Therefore the utility maximization problem is as follows: (3.1) ) ,...,,,...,( 1 1 n nzzxxfuMax mxptsii n 1i .. where xi denotes the quantity of the ith good demanded, z represents the promotion variables, pi denotes the price of the ith good and m represents dollars allocated or total expenditure on ngoods. Four steps are necessary to solve the constrained utility ma ximization problem. First, the Lagrangian function is formulated: (3.2) n 1i 1 1) (),....,,,...,(ii n nxpmzzxxuL

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29 where is the Lagrangian multiplier, the marginal ut ility of money. The value of the Lagrangian multiplier is positive and represents the amount th e utility maximum would increase given a unit relaxation in the constraint (a unit increase in total expenditure). The second step of solving the constraint ut ility maximization problem is to differentiate L with respect to xi and and then set each equati on equal to zero yielding: (3.3 a) i ip x zxu ),( (3.3 b) mxpii n 1i. These n+1 equations are known as the first order conditions and repres ent the necessary conditions for an interior maximum. The first order conditions require the ma rginal utility of the ith good to equal the price of good i times the marginal utility of money. Thus at the margin, the amount of utility given up equals the amount of utility gained in exchange for money. The next step is to solve th e first order conditions of the utility maximization problem for the optimal Marshallian demand functions. The demand functions describe the quantity of a commodity a consumer is able and willing to purchase when constrai ned by a budget and prices of all commodities and a defined set of pr eferences. The optimal solutions are: (3.4 a) ) ,,( mzpgxi i=1, 2,...,n and (3.4 b) ),,( mzp The Marshallian, uncompensated, demand functions (ix ) describe the behavior of the consumer in the market. The solution to the system produces n equilibrium demand value, xi,,xn. These demand functions are unique to a sp ecific set of prices, income and preferences; thus, changes in parameters or taste and pref erences will cause the demand system to adjust, producing new optimal values.

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30 Marshallian demand functions are also calle d uncompensated demand functions because income is fixed and utility changes between curves not along curves. When prices change there is no income compensation to keep an individual at the same level of utility. A price decrease allows an individual or household to attain a higher utility level because real income has increased, but since the function are uncompensated the price and income effects are combined. The Marshallian demand func tions are specified as: (3.5) ) ,,...,,...,(1 1mzzppgxk n ii i = 1, 2,. n. where xi represents the quantity of a good consumed. Quantity demanded is a function of all the independent variables in cluding prices of the ith good, p1, pn, promotional variables, zi,,zk, and the consumers or households income or total expenditure on goods, m In summary, demand functions relate the equilibrium quantiti es demanded to the market price of that commodity and the nominal prices of other comm odities held constant. To verify that the Marshallian demand functions derived are indeed the optimal quantities, the final step is to derive the second order conditions which ensure optimality. To analyze the effect of prices, income, a nd promotions variable on consumer demand, to the first order condition presented in (3.3) is di fferentiated and arranged in terms to obtain the fundamental matrix equations of consumer demand theory (Barten 1977; Brown and Lee 1997): (3.6a) VdzdppdUdx (3.6b) xdpdmpdx or (3.6c) dz dp dm x VI d dx p pU 0 1 0 0

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31 where jiqq u U2a nxn Hessian matrix; and kizq u V2, a nxn matrix indicating the impact of promotional effects on marginal utilities; x and p are n vectors representing the quantity of goods demanded ; and z is a k vector of promotional tactics. Equation 3.6 must be solved for dx and dto generate the effects of the e xogenous variables quantity demanded. Barten (1977) shows the effect of pr omotions on demand can be written as (3.7a) Vx m x p x z x 1 or (3.7b) VS z x 1 where x m x p x S is the Slutsky substitution matrix. This result implies that the effect of promotions is related to the subs titution effect of price changes. An alternative approach for solving the consum er allocation problem is to use the indirect utility function to obtain the Marshallian dema nd functions. The indirect utility function expresses utility as a function of prices, promo tional variables, and income. Quantities that a consumer selects depend on the prices faced a nd income, which is iden tical to the utility maximization problem. The indirect u tility function is defined as follows: (3.8) ),,,...,(),,,...,(),...,,,,...,((1 1 11 *mzppmzppgmzppgvUn n n n This function is called indirect because it expresse s the consumers utility as a function of prices and income rather than quantity. The indirect uti lity function is computed from its original utility function by deriving the optimal utility maximizing quantities demanded and then substituting these quantities into the utility function which pr oduces the highest level of utility attainable

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32 given preferences, prices and income. Since th e utility function assume s utility is maximized, Roys identity is applied to find the optimal Marshallian demand functions. Roys identity states: (3.9) m zmp p zmp zmpgi),,( ),,( ),,( The concept of elasticity is useful to summarize information pertaining to the demand function. Elasticity measures the responsiveness of the quantity demanded (in percentage terms) to percentage changes in price or income. The mo st frequently used elasticities of demand are own-price, cross-price, and income elas ticities. For a given demand function,) ,,( mzpgxii the following elasticities are defined as: (3.10) x p p xi i i ii own-price elasticity (3.11) i j j i ijx p p x cross-price elasticity (3.12) i i ix m m x income elasticity (3.13) i j j i ijx z z x promotional elasticity. Own-price elasticity measures the e ffect a change in the price of good i pi, has on the demand for the ith good, xi. Responsiveness of demand to pri ce changes is described in three ways: elastic, where changes in price significantly affect quantity (ii < -1); inelastic, where changes in price do not si gnificantly impact demand (ii > -1); and unit elasticity, where quantity

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33 demand changes at the same percentage as the change in price (ii = -1). For example, a value of ii =-2 implies that a one % increase in prices causes quantity demanded to decrease by two %. Cross-price elasticity describes the relationship between the quantity of good i demanded given changes in the price of another good, j ; making it possible to identify substitutes or complements. The ith and jth goods are gross substitutes if ij > 0, which implies j ip x is positive. The converse is true for goods that are gross complementsij < 0, which implies that j ip x is negative. Another impo rtant concept of elasticity measures the relationship between income changes and price changes. By definition, th e quantity of a normal good demanded will increase as income increases; thus, i > which implies that m xi > 0. Normal goods can be classified into two categories: necessities and luxur y goods. Necessities are those by which i < 1 and luxury goods possess a value of i > 1. A good is considered infe rior if the quantity demanded decreases as income increases, suggesting i < 0 and m xi< 0. Promotional elasticities play a critical role in determining the type of promo tional activity a retailer implements. Promotional elasticities measure the change in quantity demanded relative to the change in promotional activity (East 1990; Brown and Lee 2007; Narasimh an, Nelsin, and Sen 1996). Goods that have exceptionally low price elasticity and a high price pr omotional elasticity will cause a firm to lose money when temporary price discounts are implemented. For n goods there, are n2+n elasticities to be estimated; n2 price elasticities, and n income elasticities. However, the actual number of

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34 elasticities estimated is reduced by imposing restrictions from the optimization problem and the properties of the utility function. Restrictions imposed on Marshallian demands ar e derived from propert ies associated with the utility maximization and a linear budget cons traint. Economists assume that demand functions are continuous and differentiable and they must also satisfy the following properties: Property 1: Homogeneity All demand functions are homogeneous of degree zero in prices and income which implies that proportional changes in all prices and income leave the budget set unchanged; thus, demand and utility function are unaffected. This property is also known as absence of money illusion. Consumer experience money illusion if increases in income cause an increase in purchases regard less of the prices of the goods. Since consumers do not suffer from money illusion, decisions are made on the basis of relative prices and income. Homogeneous of degree zero implies: (3.14) ) ,,(),,( zmpgzkmkpgxi ii where k is any positive scalar. One can also illustrate the homogeneity restriction on demand functions using the Euler theorem: (3.15) .01n j iij Using Eulers theorem in (3.15), adding up suggests that changes in quantity demand induced by changes in prices must equal changes in the demand induced by income. As a result, quantities demanded are unaffected by equivalent changes in prices and income. Property 2: Engel Aggregation. In order for consumers to maximize utility, the budget constraint must be binding. Engel aggregati on states that changes in income are allocated completely across all commodities. For example, a five percent increase in income requires total purchases to also increase by five percent.

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35 This concept is illustrated by di fferentiating the budget constraint pr esented in (3.1) with respect to m: (3 .16) .1 ),,(1 n i i im zmpg p Budget exhaustion can also be expressed in income elasticity form: (3.17) n i iiw11 where m xp wii iwhich is known as the expenditure share on the ith commodity. Equation (3.17) suggests the weighted sum of in come elasticities for all goods must equal one. Thus, only 1 n of the income elasticities are independent. Promotional variables must also fulfill the adding up property; thus, an increase in demand for one good must be compensated by a decrease in demand for the other good, while to tal expenditure remains constant, (3.18) 0 i k i iz q p or in elasticity terms (3.19) i ijiw 0 which states the weighted sum of advertisi ng elasticities is zero (Brown and Lee 2002). Property 3: Cournot Aggregation The final property indicates that expenditure share on the jth good influences the magnitude of elasticities for the ith good. This property is derived by differentiating the linear budget constraint with respect to pi, resulting in, (3.20) n i j ijiww1. This equation is useful when elasticity info rmation for a limited number of goods is available and one seeks to know elasticities of others that are unavailable.

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36 Duality theory provides different technique s economists can use to derive optimizing values. Any constrained maximization problem is associated with the dual problem, constrained minimization, which focuses on the constraint in the primal problem. Duality theory has become popular and is used in many branches of economics This theory is valuable because it provides the economist with a simple and a lternative method of analysis. As discussed previously, the primal involves solving the utility maximization problem and solving for the equilibrium Marshallian demand functions. The dual problem generates optimal quantities that minimize the expenditure needed to achieve the optimal utility level derived in the primal problem. The constrained expenditu re minimization problem is written as: (3.21) n i iixpEMin1 ). ,,...,( ..1zxxfUtsn In the dual problem, the quantity demanded is a function of utility, prices, and promotional strategies which are denoted as u p and z, respectively. These demand functions differ from the Marshallian demands derived in the primal probl em which are a function of income, prices, and promotional strategies. These new cost-minimizing demand functions are derived by solving the first-order conditions of the La grangian or employing Shephards Lemma. Shephards Lemma enables economists to derive the optimal cost minimizing demand functions, Hicksian demand, from any known expenditure function by taking the partial derivative of the expenditure function with respect to price, p zupE ),,( Hicksian demand functions are also called compensated demand functions because if price changes, th e individual must receive more income or compensation in order to remain at the same utilit y level. Solutions to the utility-maximization

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37 and cost-minimization problems produce the same optimizing quantities, thus the following equality holds: (3.22) ) ,,()),,(,(),,( zpuhzupEpgzmpgxii ii iii Marshallian and Hicksian solutions can be subs tituted back into their respective problems to give, first, maximum attainable utility and, s econd, minimum attainable expenditure. Hence, (3.23) ),,()),,(()( zmpzmpgvxvU and (3.24) ),,(),,( zpuEzpuhpxpmkk ii. Both the indirect utility functi on and expenditure function discusse d in (3.23) provide alternative techniques to derive the of optimal demand functions. Changes in endogenous variable s, particularly price and income, typically impact the consumers and expenditure decisions. However, the effect of price on quantities demanded is typically more complex to analyze than is the e ffect of a change in income. The effect of a change in price on quantity can be decomposed in to a substitution effect and an income effect. The substitution effect accounts for the variation in quantity demanded influenced by the fact the relative price of one good changed; therefore, co nsumption decreases for the good whose relative price increases. The income eff ect explains the variation resu lting in an adjustment in the consumers purchasing power because price has changed. Mathematically, the own effect of a price change of a good is expressed as follows: (3.25) i i i i i ix m zmpg p mpzph p zmpg ),,()),(,,(),,(

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38 The Marshallian, uncompensated, demand functions, i ip zmpx ),,(, decomposed into the substitution effect and income effect, respectivel y, are on the right hand side of the equation. This equation is known as Slutskys Decomposition and can be rewritten as: (3.26) i i i i i ix m zmpg p zuph p zmpg ),,(),,(),,(. Slutskys Decomposition is important because it en ables one to isolate the general effect (income effect) and specific effect (substitution effect), ) (iis caused by price changes of a commodity. From Slutskys Decomposition it is apparent that Marshallian demands are more responsive to price changes than Hicksian demands, and the bu dget share of a commodity significantly impacts the difference between the Mars hallian and Hicksian demands. Hicksian, like the Marshallian, demand functi ons must satisfy the following properties which serve as the basic general principles of demand functions. Property 1: Homogeneity Hicksian demands are homogeneous of degree zero in prices and Marshallian demands in income (total expenditure) and price, for any positive scalar,0 k: (3.27) ) ,,(),,(),,(),,( zmpgzkmkpgzpuhzkpuhi i i i Property 2: Adding up The total expenditure in both Hick sian and Marshallian demands equal the budget constraint: (3.28) .),,...,(),,...,(1 ,1 1 ,1mzmppgpzupphpn i n ii n i n ii Property 3: Symmetry The cross-price derivatives of th e Hicksian demands are symmetric for all j i (3.29) i j j ip zuph p zuph ),,( ),,(.

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39 It is important to emphasize that j ip zuph ),,( = jipp zupE ),,(. Young's theorem declares that secondorder partial derivatives are identical as long as both functions are continuous. Symmetry is guaranteed because consumers decisions are consistent. Property 4: Negativity The nxn matrix formed by price derivatives of the Hicksian demand functions are negative semi-definite. This matrix of price derivatives is referred to as the substitution matrix or Slutsky matrix of compensated price responses and elements of this matrix are denoted as j i j i j i ijx m zmpg p zmpg p uph s ),,(),,(),( Negativity implies that the diagonal elements of substitution matrix are nonpositive, for all i (3.30) 0 iis Indicating that an increase in price holding utility constant cau ses demand for that commodity to fall or at least remain unchanged. Expression (3 .28) is commonly referred to the law of demand. Separability and Multi-Stage Budgeting Separability is a concept co mmonly used in empirical studi es to limit the number of estimable parameters by imposing re strictions on preferences. This approach conveys important information regarding the appropriate condi tions partitioning commodities into groups or aggregates and details on how consumers allo cate expenditures within in each group. The objective is to use conditions established by separability theory and partition goods into subsets that include commodities that are closer subs titutes or complements to each other than to members of subsets. Separability of preferences is required to guarantee that the utility realized in terms of individual commodities is identical to the utility achieved when some commodities are aggregated. The theoretical basis for sepa rability has been documented in Barten (1977) Deaton and Muellbauer (1980), Pudn ey (1981) and Phlips (1983).

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40 The composite commodity theorem develops the first conditions under which groups of commodities can be treated as one. This theorem stat es that if a set of prices move in a parallel fashion, the corresponding group of commodities can be treated as a single good. The composite commodity theorem involves re lative prices, which suggests prices move over time at proportionate rates. The theorem is not appropr iate when modeling a reality where prices are constantly changing. An alternative justification for commodity aggr egation is based on the form of the utility function itself. The necessary and sufficient c ondition for separable preferences is that the marginal rate of substitution between any tw o commodities belonging to the same group are independent of the value of any good in any other group. If this condi tion holds, the utility function presented in (3.1) can be partitioned into m groups, and nr(r=1,,m ) represents the commodities in each group (m r rnn1) (Phlips 1983). Separable functions are written as (3.31) )).(),...,(),,......,((),...,(11 1 nm hrg nxfxfxxfFxxfU These subutility functions are mutually exclusiv e and exhaustive subsets and at least one group must contain two or more commodities. Mathemati cally, a utility is weakly separable if and only if (3.32) 0 k j r i rx x f x f for rnji rnk Weak separability allows closely related commodities to be aggregated into groups without losing important properties. Weak separability of preferen ces also imposes restrictions on consumer behavior that limits the degree of substitution between goods in different groups. To test for weak separability, some studies (Brown, 1993; Lee et al., 1992; Nagaya and Capps,

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41 1994) elect to utilize the t echnique proposed by Goldman a nd Uzawa (1964). Their study suggests that the necessary and su fficient condition for weak separa bility is that the off-diagonal terms of the Slutsky substitution matrix are proportional to the income derivatives of the two separable goods. As a consequence of separable preferences, cross-substitution terms become (3.33) m x m x sj i GHij and HGHjGi The parameter GH is a factor of proportionality, summ arizing the interrelationships between groups I and J. Multiplying both sides of (3.33) by mppji/ one obtains (3.34) jiGHij ji ijs m pp Block-wise dependence is a special case of weak separability. Under conditions (3.31) the change of marginal utility of a dollar spent on the ith good GSi caused by an extra dollar spent on the jth good which belongs to a different groups equals to aGH, (3.35) GL kkiia qpqp u )()(2 LGLkGi (Theil 1976). This effect is independent of goods i and k, which implies the result is the same for all pairs of commodities in the selected groups. Thus if ora nge juice and fruit jui ce are weakly separable groups, an extra dollar spent on either Brand A or Brand B orange juice has the same effect on the marginal utility of a dollar spent on any brand in the fruit juice category. Therefore, utility interaction of two products in different groups is dependent of groups ra ther than individuals goods (Theil, 1979, 1980). According to Strotz (1957) and Gorman (1959) the separability prop erty yields appealing behavioral interpretation regarding the consumer allocation problem and simplifies the decision-

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42 making process. Multistage budgeting is a common practice implies that consumers can allocate expenditure in multiple stages; at the first stage, expenditures are allocated to broad groups of goods and the second and lower stages, require group expenditure to be allocated across individual commodities (de Janvry, Bier i and Nunez 1972; Richards, Van Ispelen, and Kagan 1997; Edgerton 1997;. The simplest form of multistage budgeting contains two stages. Both of these allocations have to be perfect in the sense that the results of two-stage budgeting must be identical to what would occur if the allocation were made in one step with complete information. At the first stage, allocation requires knowledge of to tal expenditure and appropriat ely defined group prices, while at the second stage, individual expenditures must be functions of group expenditure and prices within the group only. The second stage correspo nds to a utility maximization problem of its own because weak separability implies that deci sions are independent of commodities outside of a specified group. Thus, the conditional, Marshallian sub-group, dema nd functions that are derived are written as: (3.36) ),,(21ppmxgffii i = 1, 2. Conditional demand functions are derived from a standard utility maximizing process and possess all the usual properties o f demand functions. Consumer demand theory assumes that an in dividual or household purchases a collection of commodities which maximizes utility subj ect to a budget constraint. Commodities are distinguishable by their nature, brand or quality; thus separab ility and two-stage maximization provide the conditions that make theoretical plausible to re duce the number of variables by

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43 grouping together some of the commodities, re presenting the quantitie s and prices of the members of each group by a quant ity-index and a price-index. The Rotterdam Model The differential demand model, develope d by Barten (1964) a nd Theil (1965, 1975, 1980(a,b)) is based not on a part icular utility function but, more generally, on a first-order approximation to the demand functions themselves The Rotterdam model is derived from the maximization of a general utility function or to tal differentiation of a general demand function, using economic theory to describe the demand for goods given income and prices faced by the consumer. The Rotterdam model can be extended to include marketing variables such as promotions or any other elements of the mark eting mix (Clements and Selvanathan 1988; Duffy 1987; Brown and Lee 1997, 2006, 2007; Gao and L ee 1995; Theil 1980 (a,b)). Using theoretical framework for the Rotterdam model is develope d in equation (3.7) this can be written as (3.38) jk k j ij j j ij ii iiad pd Qdqdqw log log )(log)(log where mqpwiii is the budget share for good i; iiiipqp is the marginal propensity to consume; i i iqdwQd log log is the Divisia volume index; ijjiijsmpp is the Slutsky coefficient, with mqqpqsijiiij / or the element in the ith row and jth column of the substitution matrix; k j i iijaqw loglog is a promotional tactic coefficient indicating the impact of the kth tactic used in promoting product j on the demand for product i The general restrictions on demand are (3.39a) Adding up: ik k ij ij ii ;0 0 ;1 (3.39b) Homogeneity: i;0ij (3.39c) Symmetry: jiij

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44 Batens findings from equation (3.7) are then used to definek hjij k ij. Specifically, Barten suggests the effect of the promotion is as follows (3.7b) VS z qk j i 1 where is the marginal utility of income; S is the nxn substitution or Slutsky matrix and kizq u V2. Therefore, (3.40a) jkij k j ivs z q 1, or (3.40b) k ji j i ij i k k iiizq u m q m q m u q a a q m xp21 or (3.40c) h k hjih k j i iad qd wlog log Assuming that promotional tactics only affect the marginal utility of the brand in question, the coefficient of the promoti onal variable is written ask jjij k ij. Furthermore, Theil (1980) restricted the kth promotional tactic to have the identic al efect across all brands which suggests that hk jj. Hence, k ij k ij, and the final model is written as (3.41) k j k j N j ij ii idapd Qdqdw log )(log)(log1 i =1,,n The demand elasticities can be calculated usi ng the parameters of the Rotterdam model in equation (3.46) as: (3.42a) compensated price: iijijw / (3.42b) income: iiiw /

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45 (3.43c) promotional elasticity: // log logik k ijiik k ij k j iawa ad qd Aggregation Issues Data available for empirical analysis is usually aggregated over households or individuals, but consumer demand theory is fo rmulated for individual households. The transition from the microeconomics of consumer behavior to the analysis of market demand is frequently referred to as the aggregation ove r individual problem. Aggrega tion prevents a straightforward application of the theory to the data; therefore, aggregation theory provi des necessary conditions under which it is possible to treat aggregate consumer behavior as if it were the outcome of the decisions of a single maximizing consumer; this case we shall refer to as that of exact aggregation. Some economists possess the view that microeconomic theory has greater relevance for aggregate data, arguing that the va riations households average out to negligible proportions in aggregate, leaving only the systemic effects of variations in pr ices and budgets (Hicks, 1956). The Rotterdam model is selected for this an alysis because it is consist with consumer demand theory and allows advertis ing variables to be incorporated directly into the utility functions. This model also lends itself to empirically test for separabi lity within commodity groups without imposing additional a pr iori restrictions. Separability is used in empirical studies to limit the number of estimable parameters. This approach conveys important information regarding the condition for dividing commoditie s into groups or aggregates and relays information on how consumers allocate expenditures within in each group.

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46 CHAPTER 4 DATA SOURCE AND DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS This chapter includes a discussion of th e data set used to estimate demand interrelationships between brands of orange juices, fruit juices, and fruit drinks. This section will provide an overview of the data utilized this anal ysis as well as important descriptive statistics. Data Sources The availability of scanner data, data electroni cally collected at the stores or distribution locations containing price and volume informa tion, has revolutionized the manner in which supermarkets operate and has provided substant ial advances in food marketing (Capps 1989; Nayga 1992; Cotterill 1994, 2004; Baron and Lo ck 1995; Capps and Love 2002; Jensen 2002). Store/supermarket level scanner data, data colle cted from a national re presentative survey of stores, offers researchers new oppor tunities because the data cont ains measures of product flow through supermarkets and projects product movement in physical units, market share, prices, and merchandising activities within a trading area. Merchandising activity includes, but is not limited to, the percent of a product sold using in -store displays, the percent sold when product appeared in feature advertisemen ts, and the percent of a product so ld using price reductions. Using supermarket/store level data, researcher s have conducted numerous market and consumer demand studies supplying members of the food i ndustry with a wealth of information on firm behavior, consumer purchase pa tterns, and brand and product ch aracteristics (Guadagni and Little 1983; Capps 1989; Capps and Nayga 1989; Abra ham and Lodish 1993). Regardless of its richness, scanner data has several challenge s and limitations (Capps 1989; Baron and Lock 1995): (a) the lack of household a nd consumer information, (b) th e exclusion of foods consumed away from home, and (c) sheer volume of inform ation. Despite these limitations, scanner data has provided food manufacturers, retailers, and policymakers w ith significant information,

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47 enabling them to understand industr y structure and the impact of price, promotion and other marketing variables on sales and share of various products. Separability Model ACNielsen weekly scanner data containing unit sales and sales dollars information for all brands of orange juice, fruit juices, and fruit drinks sold in 12 grocery accounts with stores earning $2 million or more in annual sales were an alyzed to aid in the understanding of demand relationship among beverages. The period star ting July 3, 2004 thr ough the week ending in August 26, 2006 (104) was st udied. Data were 52nd differenced to account for seasonality (for the 52 weeks in the year). For simplification pur poses, brands possessing less than five % of the market share within orange juice, fruit juice, an d fruit drink categories were not included in the study. Thus, four brands of ora nge juice: Floridas Natural, Mi nute Maid, Private Label, and Tropicana; five brands of fruit juices: Minute Maid, Private Label, Sunny D, Tropicana, and Welchs; and six brands of fruit drinks: Capr i Sun, Gatorade, Hi-C, POWERade, Sunny D, and Tropicana are utilized to empirically test for separability between orange juice, fruit juice, and fruit drinks. In this study, 52 % of consumers beverage expenditure was spent on orange juice brands represented by the shades of gr een in Figure 4-1. Nine pe rcent of consum ers budget was allocated to fruit juices and expenditure share on fruit drinks was 29 % (shades of orange and purple, respectively). Tropicana orange juice was the dominant brand and Gatorade followed in second accounting for 21 % of the expenditure share. Average prices are derived by dividing total sales by total units. The average price for th e beverage brands varied from $2.88 per gallon for Tropicana orange juice to $1. 24 per gallon for private label fruit drinks. During the study period, the price of all orange juice brands increa sed while the majority of fruit juice brands and fruit drink brands had price decreases. The pr ice of Welchs and Minute Maid fruit juices

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48 increased by 6 % and 2 % during June 23, 2004 and December 23, 2006 and Capri Sun (fruit drink) increased 2.5 % during the study period (Tab le 4-1). Despite the average price increases in orange juice, all brands except Floridas Natural had increases in the quantity purchased. Figure 4-1. Separability model e xpenditure share, by brands Florida's Natural (OJ) 5% Minute Maid (OJ) 9% Private Label (OJ) 9% Tropicana (OJ) 29% Minute Maid (FJ) 3% Private Label (FJ) 1% Sunny D (FJ) 1% Tropicana (FJ) 3% Welch's (FJ) 2% Capri Sun (FD) 7% Gatorade (FD) 21% Hi C (FD) 3% Powerade (FD) 3% Sunny D (FD) 2% Tropicana (FD) 2%

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49Table 4-1. Separability m odel descriptive statistics Category Product Sales in Gallons Sales in Dollars Average Price Change in Quantity Change in Price Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev Refrigerated Orange Juice Florida's Natural 532,110 $ 1,255,539 $ 2.43 -0.158 0.616 0.062 0.125 Minute Maid 944,844 $ 2,322,781 $ 2.49 0.056 0.343 0.026 0.102 Private Label 1,210,289 $ 2,398,541 $ 1.99 0.042 0.323 0.043 0.100 Tropicana 2,650,117 $ 7,578,910 $ 2.88 0.049 0.192 0.004 0.096 Refrigerated Fruit Juices Minute Maid 591,581 $ 939,263 $ 1.66 0.088 0.279 0.060 0.104 Private Label 126,701 $ 153,486 $ 1.24 0.122 0.277 -0.084 0.154 Sunny D 176,047 $ 300,978 $ 1.82 0.156 0.485 -0.056 0.221 Tropicana 411,254 $ 715,546 $ 1.80 0.236 0.318 -0.047 0.125 Welch's 209,479 $ 466,297 $ 2.24 0.205 0.213 0.017 0.057 Shelved Fruit Drinks Capri Sun 844,834 $ 1,733,512 $ 2.07 0.055 0.369 0.025 0.112 Gatorade 2,570,844 $ 5,686,573 $ 2.26 0.240 0.323 -0.004 0.175 Hi C 488,639 $ 936,122 $ 1.93 0.092 0.297 -0.025 0.057 POWERade 547,802 $ 779,184 $ 1.49 0.463 0.422 -0.129 0.116 Sunny D 338,069 $ 512,474 $ 1.63 0.413 0.486 -0.084 0.204 Tropicana 417,975 $ 671,974 $ 1.62 -0.081 0.300 -0.011 0.071

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50 Promotional Model Retailer X The $400 billion grocery industry includes a bout 40,000 companies that operate 70,000 grocery stores. This industry is highly concen trated with the 50 largest companies controlling about 70 % of the market. Retail er X represents a major grocer y retailer whose strategy is to provide consumers with quality products, supe rb customer service a nd an enriching shopping experience. ACNielsen aggregated scanner data set for Re tailer X consists of unit sales, prices, feature ads, displays, and tem porary price reduction informati on in terms of %ACV for all brands of refrigerated and shelved orange and grapefruit juice a nd fruit drinks sold during the study period, July 7, 2004 through December 30, 2006 (122 weeks). The data was 52nd difference to account for seasonality. To simplify the data set, bra nds controlling less than 5% of market share were omitted from the study to elim inate aggregation bias. This study consists of three brands of orange juice: Private Label, Minute Maid, and Tropicana; five br ands of fruit juices: Minute Maid, Private Label, Welchs, S unny D, Tropicana; and six brands of fruit juices: Tropicana, Capri Sun, Gatorade, Minute Maid, POWERade, Kool-Aid, and Snapple. These brands are used to examine the impact of marketing variables on beverage demand. According to expenditure share values, the ma jority of consumers beverage expenditures were spent on orange juice beverages, and Gatora de was the leading product sold by Retailer X. Tropicana, Private Label, and Minute Maid orange juic es are also major brand sold at Retailer X. Tropicana orange juice had the hi ghest average unit price among all beverage brands included in the study, while POWERade had the lowest aver age price (Table 4-3). Significant price changes occurred during the study period, most notic eably, the price of Private Label orange juice increased by 10 % during the study period and the price of Gatorade and POWERade

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51 declined 15 % and 11 % during this period. Given average price increases Gatorade and POWERade, the quantity purchased dramatically decreased 32 % and 18 %, respectively. A temporary price reduction (TRP) was the promotional tactic used most by Retailer X to stimulate short term consumption. Gatorade was heavily promoted using TPRs during the study period; its TRP level was also the highest among the four prom otional tactics studied. Features and display ads were used least by Retailer X (Table 4-3). Figure 4-2. Retailer X expe nditure share by brands Private Label (OJ) 14% Minute Maid (OJ) 14% Tropicana (OJ) 19% Private Label (FJ) 1% Welch's (FJ) 2% Sunny D (FJ) 1% Minute Maid (FJ) 4% Tropicana (FJ) 1% Sunny D (FD) 3% Capri Sun (FD) 7% KoolAid (FD) 3% Gatorade (FD) 21% Powerade (FD) 5% Private Label (FD) 5%

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52Table 4-2. Retailer X descriptive statistics Category Product Sales in Gallons Sales Dollars Average Price Change in Prices Change in Quantity Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev Orange Juice Private Label 31,591,456 $ 59,008,166 $ 1.90 0.101 0.127 -0.112 0.207 Minute Maid 21,388,603 $ 58,935,820 $ 2.82 0.049 0.162 0.032 0.323 Tropicana 26,672,125 $ 81,484,815 $ 3.15 0.061 0.144 0.022 0.277 Fruit Juices Private Label 1,406,037 $ 2,389,645 $ 1.71 0.087 0.137 0.110 0.372 Welchs 4,721,448 $ 9,766,917 $ 2.08 0.015 0.074 0.156 0.203 Sunny Delight 3,791,333 $ 6,291,619 $ 2.02 0.117 0.351 -0.147 0.742 Minute Maid 11,866,118 $ 18,755,525 $ 1.72 0.061 0.100 0.056 0.285 Tropicana 2,021,010 $ 5,285,822 $ 2.68 0.174 0.143 -0.186 0.371 Fruit Drinks Sunny D 8,230,703 $ 11,411,946 $ 1.75 0.055 0.307 0.018 0.800 Capri Sun 14,679,702 $ 28,226,720 $ 1.95 -0.056 0.198 0.000 0.413 Kool-Aid 11,126,289 $ 14,338,964 $ 1.30 -0.070 0.141 -0.022 0.212 Gatorade 50,999,381 $ 93,499,073 $ 2.03 -0.107 0.347 0.323 0.538 POWERade 16,310,503 $ 20,630,560 $ 1.35 -0.146 0.111 0.181 0.273 Private Label 17,716,796 $ 21,588,916 $ 1.22 0.026 0.043 0.031 0.117

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53 Table 4-3. Retailer X promotional activities sample statistics (in % ACV) Category Product Feature DisplayF&D Orange Juice Private Label 47.0711.196.97 Minute Maid 31.078.598.7 Tropicana 36.1713.912.97 Fruit Juices Private Label 0.971.460.01 Welchs 7.670.790.44 Sunny Delight5.198.565.33 Minute Maid 22.247.292.81 Tropicana 03.530 Fruit Drinks Sunny D 10.2914.27.2 Capri Sun 17.5322.3611.1 Kool-Aid 16.310.545.71 Gatorade 35.7646.8327.2 POWERade 13.3920.165.4 Private Label 16.8417.632.37 Retailer Z Retailer Z represents a disc ount grocery retailer whose strategy is to provide consumers with low prices. ACNielsen aggregated scanner data set for Retailer Z contains unit sales, prices, feature ads, displays, and tem porary price reduction informati on in terms of %ACV for all brands of refrigerated and shelved orange and grapefruit juice a nd fruit drinks sold during the study period, July 3, 2004 through June 26, 2006 (104 weeks). The data was 52nd difference to account for seasonality. To simplif y the data set, brands controll ing less than five % of market share were omitted from the study to eliminate ag gregation bias. This study consists of three brands of orange juice: Florida s Natural, Minute Maid, and Tropicana; six brands of fruit juices: Minute Maid, Newmans Own, Turkey Hill, Vita J, Private Label, Welchs, Tropicana; and five brands of fruit juices: Capri Sun, Gatorade, Minute Maid, POWERade, and Snapple which are used to assess the influence of marke ting variables on beverage demand.

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54 According expenditure share va lues, the majority of consumers beverage expenditures were spent on orange juice beverages, and Tr opicana orange juice was the leading product sold by Retailer Z (Figure 4-4). Ga torade and Tropicana orange ju ice had the highest average unit prices among all beverage brands included in the study, while Vita J and POWERade were among the lowest priced brands. During the stu dy period, Tropicana (fruit ju ice) prices were the most volatile decreasing by 19 % during June 23, 2004 and December 23, 2006. Minute Maid orange juice consumption increased considerably, 22 %, during the study period while Newmans Own experienced a significant decline in consumption. Temporary price reductions are the dominant promotional tactic used by Retaile r Z. Tropicana orange juice and fruit juice were the most heavily promot ed brand of beverage and te mporary price reduction was the method of choice. Display and f eature advertisements were the promotional schemes least used by Retailer Z.

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55 Florida's Natural (OJ) 9% Minute Maid (OJ) 5% Tropicana (OJ) 45% Minute Maid (FJ) 3% Newmans Own (FJ) 1% Turkey Hill (FJ) 1% Vita J (FJ) 0% Welch's (FJ) 1% Tropicana (FJ) 5% Capri Sun (FD) 5% Gatorade (FD) 18% Minute Maid (FD) 2% PowerAde (FD) 2% Snapple (FD) 3% Figure 4-3. Retailer Z e xpenditure share by brands

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56Table 4-4. Retailer Z sample statistics Category Brand Sales in Gallons Sales in Dollars Avg. Price Change in Price Change in Quantity Mean Std. Dev. Mean Std. Dev. Orange Juice Florida's Natural 1,070,066 $ 2,496,923 $ 2.96 0.084 0.372 -0.2201.616 Minute Maid 635,190 $ 1,420,408 $ 2.52 -0.084 0.255 0.3311.074 Tropicana 4,187,957 $ 12,178,598 $ 3.07 0.010 0.243 -0.0620.534 Fruit Juices Minute Maid 547,338 $ 910,800 $ 1.81 -0.052 0.203 0.1680.555 Newmans Own 78,345 $ 181,291 $ 2.34 0.095 0.140 -0.3591.063 Turkey Hill 112,175 $ 242,078 $ 2.30 0.021 0.188 0.0010.392 Vita J 103,535 $ 69,811 $ 0.71 -0.114 0.227 0.0510.359 Welch's 137,696 $ 334,634 $ 2.65 0.021 0.211 -0.0070.617 Tropicana 792,111 $ 1,303,154 $ 1.91 -0.195 0.360 0.6070.741 Fruit Drinks Capri Sun 652,389 $ 1,399,403 $ 2.71 0.086 0.288 -0.2520.796 Gatorade 1,884,723 $ 4,948,745 $ 3.09 0.024 0.316 0.1580.579 Minute Maid 209,554 $ 420,766 $ 2.04 0.043 0.166 -0.3330.340 POWERade 390,998 $ 456,734 $ 1.54 -0.061 0.227 0.2620.614 Snapple 384,190 $ 839,048 $ 2.11 0.150 0.347 -0.1810.317

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57 Table 4-6. Retailer Z sample statistics for promotional activities (in % ACV) Category Brand FeatureDisplayF&D Orange Juice Florida's Natural 31.44 6.90 13.62 Minute Maid 19.40 1.54 4.98 Tropicana 68.81 14.98 26.77 Fruit Juices Minute Maid 17.15 6.40 3.21 Newmans Own 0.00 0.00 0.00 Turkey Hill 1.85 3.60 0.08 Vita J 8.94 1.13 1.13 Welch's 5.75 1.08 0.83 Tropicana 7.65 7.48 1.65 Fruit Drinks Capri Sun 21.65 7.87 13.94 Gatorade 29.08 24.54 14.44 Minute Maid 3.25 1.04 0.00 POWERade 10.31 4.50 1.46 Snapple 31.02 6.13 10.77 The three data sets discussed in this chapter were collected by AC Nielsen. The data is used to estimate three Rotterdam model. The re sults from the models will be used to make inferences on the structure of the fruit juice/ drink market, beverage demand relationships, and the influence of marketing variable on bevera ge demand. This study will have multiple marketing implications which can be utilized to better understand and position juice products.

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58 CHAPTER 5 EMPIRICAL MODEL Given the theoretical framework developed in Chapter 3, this chapter includes a discussion of the empirical models used to test for separa bility within the fruit juice/drink market, to estimate demand interrelationships between various br ands of orange juices, fruit juices, and fruit drinks; and to estimate the impact of retail promotions on beverage demand Two different empirical models are developed in order to acco mplish the previously mentioned objectives. The first model tests for separability within the U.S. fruit juice market. The second model is developed to analyze the influe nce of promotional strategies on the demand for orange juice, fruit juice, and fruit drinks at two stores adopting different pr icing philosophies. Time Series Processor Program (TSP 5.0) was utilized to esti mate the empirical models presented in this sections. Empirical Models Separability Model The absolute version of the Rotterdam model de veloped by Theil (1975) used to empirically test for separability among refrigerated orange juices fruit juices, and fruit dr inks is written as (5.1) N j jt ij iit itpdQdqdw1log log log where 2/52, tiitiwww represents the average expenditure share for brand i in time period t ; 1,logti it tiq q qdrepresents the log change in the consumption level for brand i ; m q pi ii is the marginal propensity to consume; 15 1log )(logi it iqdwQdis the Divisia volume index;

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59 ij ji ijs m pp is the compensated price effect and ijs is the Slutsky coefficient, with j i j i ijq m q p q s and 1,logti it itp p pdrepresenting the log change in the price of brand i In econometric analyses, time series data usua lly violates the assumption of independence of errors. In this model (5.1), the Durbin-Watson statistic did indicate the presence of positive autocorrelation. Autocorrelation causes ordinary least squared estimates to no longer be efficient because the variance is not minimized, the Rsquared values are overestimated, and the confidence intervals derived for hypothesis testing are wider, increa sing the probability of a Type I error (Bence 1995; Greene 2003; Gujarati 2003). The Cochran-Orcutt iterative procedure was used to correct for first order autocorrelation. Th e first order autoregressi ve (AR(1)) model is the procedure most widely used to correct for au tocorrelation and calculate the value of the coefficient of autocovariance, because higher order autocorrelation models are exceedingly complex and provide no gains in the effi ciency of the estimates (Greene 2003). Demand equations for fifteen brands were estimated and analyzed in this study. When empirically estimating demand systems, one equation must be omitted to prevent singularity of the variance-covariance matrix of the disturbanc e terms and the general restrictions of demand theory are directly applied to the parameters of the Rotterdam model in (5.3), specifically: (5.2 a) Adding up: 15 1 11i and 15 10i ij (5.2 b) Homogeneity: 15 10j ij (5.2 c) Symmetry: jiij

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60 Given the restrictions, parameters for the omitted equations are easily recovered14 1 151i i and 14 1 151j ij i (5.3) it tj jt j ij t t iti ti it itpdpd QdQdqdwqdw 1, 1 1, 1,log log log log log log The demand elasticities are ca lculated using the paramete rs of the Rotterdam model presented in equation (5.3) as: (5.4) uncompensated price: iiiij ijww / (5.5) compensated price: iijijw / (5.6) income:iiiw / The method popularized Glodman and Uzawa is used to empirically test for block dependence between the selected fruit juice/dr ink categories. The necessary and sufficient condition for weak separability is that off-dia gonal terms in the Slutsky substitution matrix are proportional to the income derivatives of the two separable goods, shown in (5.7) (5.7) m q m q sj i GHij where all Gi and all Hk where j i j i j i ijx m zmpg p zmpg p uph s ),,(),,(),( elements of the Slutsky matrix. Therefore, if brands in the fruit drink ca tegory are separable from those brands in the orange juice category, then the factor of proportionality,GH is the same for all brand combinations within these two categories. Using the parameters estimated in model (5.3) the factor of proportiona lity is derived as (5.8) jiij GH

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61 The model estimated in (5.3) evaluates demand interrelationships a nd intrarelationships for brands belonging to selected ca tegories within the fru it juice/ drink market. Separability tests are conducted among brands of orange juice, fruit juices and fruit dr inks. Brands included in this model and mode codes are shown in Table 51. Compensated price effects and income elasticities are also calculated to identify the degree of substitutability between brands. Several transformations that have occurred in the beve rage industry and results from this model will provide information on the struct ure of the fruit juice market. It is expected that major competitors of orange juice are not limited to othe r breakfast juices, but also sports drinks and single serve juices. Table 5-1. Separability model codes Category Brand Quantity log changes Price log changes Budget Shares Subscript Orange Juice Florida's Natural dlogq1 dlogp1 w1 1 Minute Maid dlogq2 dlogp2 w2 2 Private Label dlogq3 dlogp3 w3 3 Tropicana dlogq4 dlogp4 w4 4 Fruit Juices Minute Maid dlogq5 dlogp5 w5 5 Private Label dlogq6 dlogp6 w6 6 Sunny D dlogq7 dlogp7 w7 7 Tropicana dlogq8 dlogp8 w8 8 Welch's dlogq9 dlogp9 w9 9 Fruit Drinks Capri Sun dlogq10 dlogp10 w10 10 Gatorade dlogq11 dlogp11 w11 11 Hi C dlogq12 dlogp12 w12 12 POWERade dlogq13 dlogp13 w13 13 Sunny D dlogq14 dlogp14 w14 14 Tropicana dlogq15 dlogp15 w15 15

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62 Promotional Model The Rotterdam model allows advertising variab les to be directly incorporated into the demand function, making it possible to estimate the effect of promotions on demand (Theil 1980; Clements and Selvanathan 1988; Brown and Lee 2007). The model can be written as (5.9a) N j k jt k jt ij iit itda pdQdqdw1log log log or (5.9b) N j jt jt jt jt ij iit itdfddfddpdQdqdw1 3 2 1log log log or (5.9c) N j jtij iit itpa Qdqdw1log log where itw log itq ,jt jt ij idaanddpdQd log,log ,,log, retain the definitions given in the previous model and jt jt jtfd fddd dlog and ,log,log are the level of promotional tactics for displays, feature advertisements, and a combin ation of feature and displays, respectively. Equation (5.9a) is simplified in equation (5.8b) where jt jt jt jt jtdfddfddpdpad3 2 1log log and represents the perceived price. The level of each promotional tactic is measured by the perc entage of all commodity volume (ACV). The coefficient ksymbolizes the impact of promotional tactic k on the marginal util ity of beverage j This coefficient is expected to be positive because reta ilers use promotional tactics to encourage consumption or demand. This model impos es the restrictions on the parameter k to reduce the number of parameter estimated, ensure the resu lts are reliable, and to prevent the loss of all degrees of freedom. Specifically, kis assumed to remain constant across all beverage brands, as found in studies conducted by Th eil (1980) and Brown and Lee (2007).

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63 Both the retailer adopting a non-price comp etitive philosophy (Retailer X) and the discount retailer implementing a price competitiv e strategy (Retailer Y) contain 14 brands. Thus, the same model is used to analyze the impact of prom otional strategies on beverage demand. Positive autocorrelation was also detected in the demand equations estimated in equation (5.8). The Cochran-Orcu tt method was used to correct for first order au tocorrelation. The AR(1) model is a follows: (5.10) it tj jt j ij t t iti ti it itpadpad QdQdqdwqdw 1, 1 1, 1,log log log log log log The equation associated with the 14th brand is omitted to prevent singularity of the variance-covariance matrix of the disturbance terms and the general restrictions of demand theory are directly applied to the parameters of the Rotterdam model in (5.9), specifically, (5.11 a) Adding up: 14 1 11i and 14 10i ij (5.11 b) Homogeneity: 14 10j ij (5.11c) Symmetry: jiij The uncompensated and compensated price el asticities and the income elasticities are calculated in the same manner di scussed in equations using the parameters of the Rotterdam model presented in equations (5.4), (5.5), and (5 .6), respectively. Promotional elasticities are derived as follows: (5.12) promotional elasticity: k i k ij k j iaw a q )( log log Compensated price elasticities make it possibl e to identify substitutes or complements of the brands of orange juice, fruit juice and fruit drinks included in this stud y. Brands included in

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64 the Rotterdam model for Retailer X and Retailer Z are included Tables 5-2 and 5-3, respectively. In addition, income and promotiona l elasticities are also estimated. Since elasticities are specific to a supermarket account and each retailer im poses a different pricing philosophy, one can determine the influence the stores strategy has on promotions. For example, shoppers at everyday low price stores may be more responsi ve to temporary price reductions than shoppers at stores focusing on providing quality products that do not compete so heavily on price. Additionally, this study will be ab le to assess if brand promotions increase the demand for a brand advertisements. This study will also provide information regarding the relationship between of the leading brands of fruit juice beverages, the effectiv eness of promotional strategies and the impact of one brands promotions on the demand for complementary and substitutable products. Table 5-2. Retailer X variable description Category Brands Quantity log changes Price log changes Budget Shares Codes Orange Juice Private Label dlogq1 dlogp1 w1 1 Minute Maid dlogq2 dlogp2 w2 2 Tropicana dlogq3 dlogp3 w3 3 Fruit Juices Private Label dlogq4 dlogp4 w4 4 Welchs dlogq5 dlogp5 w5 5 Sunny Delight dlogq6 dlogp6 w6 6 Minute Maid dlogq7 dlogp7 w7 7 Tropicana dlogq8 dlogp8 w8 8 Sunny D dlogq9 dlogp9 w9 9 Fruit Drinks Capri Sun dlogq10 dlogp10 w10 10 Kool-Aid dlogq11 dlogp11 w11 11 Gatorade dlogq12 dlogp12 w12 12 POWERade dlogq13 dlogp13 w13 13 Private Label dlogq14 dlogp14 w14 14

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65 Table 5-3. Retailer Z codes Category Brand Quantity log changes Price log changes Budget Shares Codes Orange Juice Florida's Natural dlogq1 dlogp1 w1 1 Minute Maid dlogq2 dlogp2 w2 2 Tropicana dlogq3 dlogp3 w3 3 Fruit Juices Minute Maid dlogq4 dlogp4 w4 4 Newmans Own dlogq5 dlogp5 w5 5 Turkey Hill dlogq6 dlogp6 w6 6 Vita J dlogq7 dlogp7 w7 7 Welch's dlogq8 dlogp8 w8 8 Tropicana dlogq9 dlogp9 w9 9 Fruit Drinks Capri Sun dlogq10 dlogp10 w10 10 Gatorade dlogq11 dlogp11 w11 11 Minute Maid dlogq12 dlogp12 w12 12 POWERade dlogq13 dlogp13 w13 13 Snapple dlogq14 dlogp14 w14 14

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66 CHAPTER 6 RESULTS The results from the Rotterdam models used to test for separability within the juice/drink market and the impact of promotions on the dema nd for beverages in this category are presented in this chapter. Results from the separability model provide information on demand relationship and the structure of the fruit juice/drink market This study also compares and contrasts the impact of promotion across two stores adopti ng different pricing phi losophies. Retailer X represents a major grocery retail er whose strategy is to provide consumers with quality products, superb customer service and an enriching shoppi ng experience. Retailer Z represents a discount grocery retailer whose strategy is to provide consumers with low prices. Parameter estimates associated with the Separability Model, Retaile r X Model, and Retailer Z Model are shown in Appendix A, B, and C, respectively. Separability Model In an effort to understand the structure of th e beverage industry, test s were run to see if block-wise dependence amongst beverage categories exists. The Wa ld Test was used to test for separability within the beverage category and results from the sepa rability tests are exhibited in Table 4The hypothesis of bloc k-wise dependence suggests that th e specific cross price effect between any two products in two different product groups is identical for all pairs of products in the two groups. The hypothesis of block dependence is rejected (Table 6-1), which implies that equation (5.8) does not hold. Th e factor of proportionality,GH is not identical for all brand combinations within the two categories in question (i.e. orange juice and fruit juice), hence, one can conclude that products belonging to different product categories are competitors; hence, orange juice is not only competing with the breakfas t juices, but with brands in other fruit market

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67 categories. Since block depende nce is rejected, it is not pl ausible to believe that block independence, a stronger hypothesis will hold and te st for block independence were not run. Table 6-2. Separability results Block-wise dependence directly impacts specific effect of the Slutsky equation which is partly determined by the margin al relationship between goods i and j Block-wise dependence suggests the specific effect is identical for all products in groups i and j Rejecting the blockwise dependence hypothesis suggests that the change in marginal utility of a dollar spent on a product caused by an extra dollar spent on anothe r product is not the same for all pairs of products within the same category. Thus, consumers do not perceive brands within a category as the same and brands to influence consumers purch ases. This result also suggests that a change in the marginal utility of a dollar spent on a br and in one product group ca used by an extra dollar spent on another brand in a different product ca tegory varies for each combination of brands within the two categories. Thus, an extra do llar spent on any brand of orange juice (i.e. Tropicana) affects the marginal utility of anothe r dollar spent on any bran d in the fruit drinks category (i.e. Gatorade). In conclusion when analyzing the demand for beverages, brand managers should not focus solely other breakfast juices or other isotonics, but one must focus on all beverage simultaneously. Categories ChiSquared Test Statistic df P-value Orange Juice (OJ) and Fru it Juice (FJ) 1992.21 45.32 20 0.000 Orange Juice and Fruit Drinks 467.71 49.73 23 0.000 Fruit Juice and Fruit Drinks (FD) 568.47 59.70 30 0.000

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68 Promotional Models Retailer X Econometric estimates associated with the auto regressive model are shown in Appendix BThe marginal expenditure shares (i ) for all beverage brands are positive and significantly different from zero. These values range from 0.004 (Private Label fr uit juice) to 0.373 (Gatorade). Summing the across marginal expenditure share within each category, orange juice sales increases 28% given a one dollar increase in beverage expe nditures, fruit juices increase 9% and fruit drinks increase by 63%. As s uggested by theory, all own compensated price coefficients are negative and statistically significant (Appe ndix B Table B-2). Slutsky coefficients measure the net subst itution effect of a change of the ith product given a change in the price of the jth good holding income constant. As di scussed in Chapter 3 the sign of the slutsky coefficient, ij ,determines the relationship between i and j which provides information on the structure of the market. Products are net substitutes when ij is positive and net complements when ij is negative. Based upon that compensated price coefficients one can concludes that brands compete with products within the same categor y, as well as products in the other categories. Expenditure and cross price elasticities also pr ovide insights on the structure of the fruit juice market and demand relationships. All expenditure elasticities are estimates at the sample mean and vary from 0.423 (Minute Maid orange juice) to 1.878 (Gatorade) suggesting consumers perceive some beverage s as necessities and others as luxury goods (Table 6-3). For example, Retailer Xs private labe l beverages in the orange juice, fruit juice, and fruit drinks categories are perceived as neces sities and fruit drinks such as Sunny Delight, Capri Sun, Gatorade, and POWERade are view ed as luxury products. The expenditure elasticities for the

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69 luxury goods are in the elastic ra nge suggesting that consumers ha ve a strong preference for this goods-hence luxury goods. The income elasticities for both necessities and luxury goods are positive, but the demand for luxury goods is more responsive to changes in income. Thus, as consumers expenditures increases by one more than one percent of their increased income would be allocated to the luxury products. As a result of the in creased expenditures, the orange juice industry would be worse off relative to th e fruit juice and fruit drink markets because consumers would purchase more of the luxury goods for which they have a stronger preference. For example, as income increase by 1% the expenditure on Private Label, Minute Maid, and Tropicana orange juice increase by 68%, 42%, an d 65%, respectively. However, Sunny Delight, Capri Sun, Kool-Aid, and Gato rade (fruit drinks) increase 10 4%, 131%, 141%, and 188% given a 1% increase income. Results from the separa bility test suggest that consumer have an expenditure budget and the all beverages are comp eting for a share of the budget. Thus, as expenditure increase, expenditure share on brands of fruit drinks and fruit juices will increase because more consumers are coming into the market. Table 6-3. Retailer X Ex penditure Elasticities Categories Brands EstimateStd. Error P-value Orange Juice Private Label 0.684 0.093 [.000] Minute Maid 0.423 0.084 [.000] Tropicana 0.652 0.076 [.000] Fruit Juice Private Label 0.827 0.165 [.000] Welchs 0.868 0.133 [.000] Sunny Delight 1.095 0.174 [.000] Minute Maid 0.905 0.078 [.000] Tropicana 0.650 0.108 [.000] Fruit Drinks Sunny Delight 1.040 0.325 [.001] Capri Sun 1.318 0.186 [.000] Kool-Aid 1.414 0.200 [.000] Gatorade 1.878 0.178 [.000] POWERade 0.970 0.167 [.000] Private Label 0.843 0.096 [.000]

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70 Compensated price elasticities include the income effect and determine if two products are net substitutes or complements. Net comple ments are negative and statistically significant compensated cross price elasticities. Whereas, ne t substitutes have positive and statistically significant compensated cross pri ce elasticities. All the fourteen own price elasticities were significant and all of the products except private label fruit juice were in the elastic range. The own price elasticity values range from -0.926 (P rivate label FD) and -2.827 (Sunny Delight FD). Seventy-nine percent of the cross price elasticities were significan t (Tables 6-4 through 6-6). Of the significant cross price elasticities, 96 % we re positive suggesting that the products were net substitutes. Estimates indicate that products wi thin the same product line were complements. Though this may seem counterintuitive, this result is expected as brand managers position their products in this manner to prevent cannibalism. Brands of orange juice were more responsiv e to price change for products within the same category. Cross price elasticities when both brands were orange juice beverages ranged from 0.229 to 0.388, indicating the change in de mand for one brand of orange juice ranges from 23% to 38% given a 1% price cha nge in another brand. Whereas the changes in the demand for orange juice ranged from -3 % to 10 % in response to a 1 % change in the price of a fruit juice and 3.2 % to 19.3% given an 1 % change in the price of brands of fruit drinks. Own category cross price elasticities for fru it juice beverages were ranging from -0.076 to 0.447. Cross price elasticities fruit ju ice given a 1% change in orange juic es ranged from -0.456 to 0.468 and the elasticity for fruit juice given a 1% in fruit drinks ranges from .265 to 0.644. The demand for fruit drinks change by -17% to 31% given a 1% increase in the price of a nother fruit drink. In contrast, the demand for fruit dri nks changed from 9 % to 51 % in response to a 1 % change in

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71 the price of orange juice and 11% to 26 % given a 1 % change in the price of brands of fruit juices. The findings from this study suggest that the brands of orange juice included in this study are substitutes for brands in the fruit juice and fruit drink categories. Furthermore, the demands for fruit juices and fruit drinks brands were more responsive to price change s in brands of orange juice. For example, a 1 % increase in the pri ce of Tropicana orange juice causes the demand for Sunny Delight (FJ) to increase by 47 %. Conversely, a 1 % increase in the price of Sunny Delight (FJ) causes the demand for Tropicana orange juice 4 %. Additionally, a 1 % increase in the price of Tropicana orange juice causes th e demand for Capri Sun (FD) to increase by 46 % and a 1 % increase in the price of Capri Sun (FD) causes the de mand for Tropicana orange juice to increase by 14 %. These results suggest that competitors of orange juice are not limited to other breakfast juices but also include single serv e beverages and sports drinks. Furthermore, the fruit juice and fruit drinks categories experien ce substantial increases in demand given small price changes in orange juice products. Overall, the majority of the cross price elasticities were in the inelastic range suggesting consumers demand for products within the orange juice, fruit juice and fruit drink categories does not significantly increase in response to prices of other br ands within these categories. Features without displays, displays without features, and display accompanied by feature advertisements are promotional tactics used by retailers in to increase the demand of the product in question by changing the perceive d price of the brand. It is e xpected that the coefficients for promotional tactics are positive because advertising is thought to have a positive impact on marginal utility. Results indicate that all prom otional tactics were significantly different from zero and had a positive impact on the marginal utility (Appendix B Table B-2). Feature

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72 advertisements accompanied by displays had the largest impact on marginal utility, followed by in-store displays. Promotional elasticities for Retailer X are presented in Appendix B Table B-3 through Table B-11. These values represen t the change in the quantity of good i demand relative to changes in a promotional activity. For example, increasing the display activity by 1 % increases the demand for private label orange juice by 2%. Own promotional el asticities should be positive. Additionally, positive cross promotional elasticities indicate two products in question are complements and negative promotional cross elas ticities indicate the goods are substitutes. The demand for Retailer Xs private label products is less responsive to promotional tactics when compared to national branded products. The demand for private label products also were more responsive to promotional efforts of national br ands than the demand fo r national brands were impacted by the promotional tactics of private label products. This behavior may be observed because consumers possess a stronger preference fo r national brands and because these products possess higher brand equity All of the significant cross promotional elasticities were in the inelastic range suggesting that large increases in promotional t actics have small impacts on the demand for the brands of orange ju ice, fruit juice, fru it drinks included in this study. The fruit juice market is extremely mature therefore demands for products within this market are less deal elastic. Results suggest that brand promotions utilized by Retailer X do not necessarily increase demand. Thus, Retailer X may use promotional tactics to si mply increase store traffic. Retailer Z Econometric estimates associated with the auto regressive model are shown in Appendix C. The marginal expenditure shares (i ) for eleven of the fourteen beverage brands are positive and significantly different from zero. These valu es range from 0.024 (Minute Maid FD) to 0.377

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73 (Tropicana OJ). Orange juic e sales experience the largest marginal increase in demand given a one dollar increase in expenditures followed by fruit drinks then fruit juices. All own compensated price coefficients are negative and statistically significant (Appendix C Table C-2) which is consistent with consumer demand theo ry. Slutsky coefficients make it possible to identity relationships between products. One can make inferences regarding the demand relationships of beverage within the fruit juice market based upon expenditure and cross price elasticities. Expenditure elasticities vary from 0.477(Snapple) to 3.292 (Welchs) suggesting some beverages are perceived as necessities and others as luxury goods (Table 6-3). Various brands of orange juice, fruit juice, and drinks were considered luxury goods. Specifically, Fl oridas Natural, Newmans Own, Capri Sun, Gatorade, and POWERade were perceived as luxury products suggesting that consumers preferred these goods over the other brands included in the study. Based upon these results, the orange juice category would benefit from an in crease in consumers e xpenditures due to their marginal share values a nd income elasticities.

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74 Table 6-4. Expenditure Elastici ties for Brands at Retailer Z Categories Brands Estimate Std. ErrorP-value Orange Juice Florida's Natural 1.2100.394[.002] Minute Maid 0.6550.537[.223] Tropicana 0.8070.104[.000] Fruit Juice Minute Maid 0.7150.206[.001] Newman's Own 3.5010.675[.000] Turkey Hill 1.0450.221[.000] Vita J 0.9010.294[.002] Welchs 0.4770.293[.103] Tropicana 0.6050.206[.003] Fruit Drinks Capri Sun 1.7900.308[.000] Gatorade 1.2020.251[.000] Minute Maid 1.2880.288[.000] POWERade 3.2920.665[.000] Snapple 0.4640.298[.120] Compensated price elasticities identify wh ether products were net substitute and complements. Thirteen of the fourteen own pri ce elasticities were signifi cant and eleven of the products were in the elastic range Own price elasticities values ranged from -0.783 (Troipanca OJ ) to -5.344 (POWERade). Nearly fifty-five % of the cross price elas ticities were significant (Tables 6.13 through 6.22). Of the cross price el asticities that are signi ficant, 98 % were positive suggesting that the products were net substitutes. Unlike Reta iler Xs results, many cross price elasticities between orange juice brands and fruit juice brands were insignificant. However, some similarities existed. For example, Capri Sun, Gatorade, and POWERade were still substitutes to brands of orange juice, but these results show the cross price elasticities between POWERade and the brands of orange juice are in the elastic range. This implies that a small percentage change in the price orange juice w ill equate to large changes in the quantity of POWERade demanded. In this model, orange juice products were more responsive to price change for products within the same category, bu t the demand for fruit juices and fruit drinks

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75 responded more to change in the price of orange juice. For example, a 1 % increase in the price of Tropicana orange juice cause s the demand for POWERade to increase by 168 %. One the other hand, a 1 % increase in the price POWERade causes the demand for Tropicana orange juice to increase 54 %. Additionally, a 1 % incr ease in the price of Tropicana orange juice causes the demand for Newmans Own (FJ) to increase by 189 %. Whereas, a 1 % increase in the price of Newmans Own (FJ) causes the demand fo r Tropicana orange jui ce to increase 17%. These results suggest that the fr uit juice and fruit drink market would expand at the expense of the orange juice market given a ny shock that causes the prices of orange juice to increase. Promotional elasticities for Retailer Z are presented in Appendix C Tables C-3 through Table C-11. Demand theory suggests that own pr omotional elasticities should be positive and cross promotional elasticities are negative if the two products in question are substitutes and positive if the two goods are complements. The promotional coefficients (Appendix C Table C2) for Retailer Z are larger the co efficient at Retailer X. Recall, that Retailer Z is a discount retailer; therefore, one can assume that this stor e would attract customers that are price sensitive and deal seekers. Magnitudes of the promotional coefficients suggest th at display and feature advertisement had the highest impact on demand followed by display only, and feature only. The demands for different orange juice brands were more responsive to the promotional activity orange juice brand when compared to changes in the demand fo r orange juice given changes in promotional activities of fruit juice and fruit drink products. Th e overall impact of brand promotions on demand is minimal and in the inelastic range. These results further support the notion that the demand in a mature market is less responsive to suggesting that large increases in promotional tactics. The fruit juice market is extremely mature therefore the demands for products within this market are less deal elastic. Resu lts suggest that brand

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76 promotions utilized by Retailer X do not necessa rily increase demand. Thus, Retailer X may use promotional tactics to simply increase store traffic. Results from this study sugge st the consumers do not allocat e their beverage expenditure according to product type and that all bevera ges are competing for consumer dollars. Additionally results from Retailer X and Retailer Z identify brands such as Gatorade, POWERade, and Capri Sun as competitors of orange juice brands, but that these relationships are asymmetric. Shoppers at Retailer Z were found to be more deal sensitive. Feature advertisements and displays were promotional tactics that had the most prof ound impact on beverage demand.

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77 Table 6-5. Orange juice own and cross category compensated price elasticities for Retailer X Category Brands EstimateStd. Error P-Value Orange Juice/Orange Juice Private Label/Private Label -1.2270.039 [.000] Private Label/Minute Maid 0.2850.025 [.000] Private Label/Tropicana 0.3100.026 [.000] Minute Maid/Private Label 0.2980.026 [.000] Minute Maid/Minute Maid -1.4090.042 [.000] Minute Maid/Tropicana 0.3880.027 [.000] Tropicana/Private Label 0.2290.019 [.000] Tropicana/Minute Maid 0.2740.019 [.000] Tropicana/Tropicana -1.2080.038 [.000] Orange Juice/Fruit Juice Private Label/Private Label -0.0110.007 [.082] Private Label/Welchs 0.0480.011 [.000] Private Label/Sunny Delight 0.0380.012 [.001] Private Label/Minute Maid 0.0690.012 [.000] Private Label/Tropicana 0.0130.007 [.058] Minute Maid/Private Label 0.0160.003 [.000] Minute Maid/Welchs 0.0210.009 [.017] Minute Maid/Sunny Delight 0.0410.008 [.000] Minute Maid/Minute Maid 0.1010.012 [.000] Minute Maid/Tropicana 0.0210.004 [.000] Tropicana/Private Label 0.0120.003 [.000] Tropicana/Welchs 0.0390.006 [.000] Tropicana/Sunny Delight 0.0360.006 [.000] Tropicana/Minute Maid 0.0790.007 [.000] Tropicana/Tropicana -0.0300.004 [.000]

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78 Table 6-5. Continued Category Brands EstimateStd. Error P-Value Orange Juice/ Fruit Drinks Private/Sunny Delight 0.0910.021 [.000] Private/Capri Sun 0.0560.028 [.045] Private/Kool-Aid 0.0640.020 [.001] Private/Gatorade 0.2050.041 [.000] Private/POWERade 0.0770.026 [.003] Private/Private -0.0180.023 [.435] Minute Maid/Sunny Delight 0.0470.018 [.008] Minute Maid/Capri Sun 0.1670.027 [.000] Minute Maid/Kool-Aid 0.0750.019 [.000] Minute Maid/Gatorade 0.1220.036 [.001] Minute Maid/POWERade 0.0700.023 [.002] Minute Maid/Private 0.0420.015 [.004] Tropicana/Sunny Delight 0.0590.014 [.000] Tropicana/Capri Sun 0.1370.021 [.000] Tropicana/Kool-Aid 0.0750.013 [.000] Tropicana/Gatorade 0.1930.033 [.000] Tropicana/POWERade 0.0720.016 [.000] Tropicana/Private 0.0320.011 [.003]

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79 Table 6-6. Fruit juice own and cross category compensated price elasticities for Retailer X Category Brands EstimateStd. Error P-Value Fruit Juice/Orange Juice Private/Private -0.3200.184 [.082] Private/Minute Maid 0.4270.081 [.000] Private/Tropicana 0.4580.096 [.000] Welchs/Private 0.3160.073 [.000] Welchs/Minute Maid 0.1330.056 [.017] Welchs/Tropicana 0.3450.053 [.000] Sunny Delight/Private 0.3630.112 [.001] Sunny Delight/Minute Maid 0.3750.071 [.000] Sunny Delight/Tropicana 0.4680.078 [.000] Minute Maid/Private 0.2340.041 [.000] Minute Maid/Minute Maid 0.3280.038 [.000] Minute Maid/Tropicana 0.3650.031 [.000] Tropicana/Private 0.1450.076 [.058] Tropicana/Minute Maid 0.2270.044 [.000] Tropicana/Tropicana -0.4560.061 [.000] Fruit Juice/Fruit Juice Private Label/Private Label -1.4520.177 [.000] Private Label/Welchs 0.4100.139 [.003] Private Label/Sunny Delight -0.4470.236 [.058] Private Label/Minute Maid -0.1420.125 [.257] Private Label/Tropicana -0.0460.138 [.737] Welchs/Private Label 0.0970.033 [.003] Welchs/Welchs -2.4840.105 [.000] Welchs/Sunny Delight 0.1220.073 [.096] Welchs/Minute Maid 0.4120.075 [.000] Welchs/Tropicana 0.0770.043 [.073] Sunny Delight/Private Label -0.1520.08 [.058] Sunny Delight/Welchs 0.1750.105 [.096] Sunny Delight/Sunny Delight -2.1740.218 [.000] Sunny Delight/Minute Maid -0.0450.095 [.638] Sunny Delight/Tropicana -0.0190.093 [.835] Minute Maid/Private Label -0.0170.015 [.257] Minute Maid/Welchs 0.2120.039 [.000] Minute Maid/Sunny Delight -0.0160.034 [.638] Minute Maid/Minute Maid -2.1610.058 [.000]

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80 Table 6-6. Continued Category Brands EstimateStd. Error P-Value Fruit Juice/Fruit Juice Minute Maid/Tropicana 0.0440.021 [.032] Tropicana/Private Label -0.0190.055 [.737] Tropicana/Welchs 0.1300.072 [.073] Tropicana/Sunny Delight -0.0230.109 [.835] Tropicana/Minute Maid 0.1440.067 [.032] Tropicana/Tropicana -1.0750.092 [.000] Fruit Juice/Fruit Drinks Private Label/Sunny Delight 0.6440.268 [.016] Private Label/Capri Sun 0.1450.089 [.102] Private Label/Kool-Aid 0.0370.158 [.813] Private Label/Gatorade 0.3030.071 [.000] Private Label/POWERade 0.0970.115 [.932] Private Label/Private Label -0.0270.322 [.933] Welchs/Sunny Delight -0.0240.088 [.780] Welchs/Capri Sun 0.1690.057 [.003] Welchs/Kool-Aid -0.1520.105 [.147] Welchs/Gatorade 0.3350.059 [.000] Welchs/POWERade 0.3930.081 [.000] Welchs/Private Label 0.2620.137 [.057] Sunny Delight/Sunny Delight 0.0580.247 [.814] Sunny Delight/Capri Sun 0.1610.076 [.035] Sunny Delight/Kool-Aid -0.2650.123 [.031] Sunny Delight/Gatorade 0.3920.076 [.000] Sunny Delight/POWERade 0.1740.092 [.057] Sunny Delight/Private Label 0.4870.229 [.033] Minute Maid/Sunny Delight 0.1580.043 [.000] Minute Maid/Capri Sun 0.1080.034 [.002] Minute Maid/Kool-Aid 0.0840.058 [.150] Minute Maid/Gatorade 0.2730.035 [.000] Minute Maid/POWERade 0.2440.048 [.000] Minute Maid/Private Label 0.1440.068 [.035] Tropicana/Sunny Delight 0.1290.125 [.301] Tropicana/Capri Sun 0.1460.05 [.003] Tropicana/Kool-Aid 0.2820.086 [.001] Tropicana/Gatorade 0.1800.047 [.000] Tropicana/POWERade 0.0690.062 [.263] Tropicana/Private Label 0.1210.167 [.470]

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81 Table 6-7. Fruit drink own and cross category compensated price elasticities for Retailer X Category Brands Estimate Std. Error P-Value Fruit Drinks/Orange Juice Sunny Delight/Private Label 0.5170.120 [.000] Sunny Delight/Minute Maid 0.2560.097 [.008] Sunny Delight/Tropicana 0.4580.105 [.000] Capri Sun/Private Label 0.1170.058 [.045] Capri Sun/Minute Maid 0.3310.053 [.000] Capri Sun/Tropicana 0.3840.059 [.000] Kool-Aid/Private Label 0.2560.079 [.001] Kool-Aid/Minute Maid 0.2850.072 [.000] Kool-Aid/Tropicana 0.4030.068 [.000] Gatorade/Private Label 0.1480.030 [.000] Gatorade/Minute Maid 0.0850.025 [.001] Gatorade/Tropicana 0.1890.033 [.000] POWERade/Private Label 0.2300.076 [.003] POWERade/Minute Maid 0.1980.064 [.002] POWERade/Tropicana 0.2910.064 [.000] Private Label/Private Label -0.0520.066 [.435] Private Label/Minute Maid 0.1150.040 [.004] Private Label/Tropicana 0.1240.041 [.003] Fruit Drinks/Fruit Juice Sunny Delight/Private Label 0.1320.055 [.016] Sunny Delight/Welchs -0.0210.076 [.780] Sunny Delight/Sunny Delight 0.0350.149 [.814] Sunny Delight/Minute Maid 0.2660.072 [.000] Sunny Delight/Tropicana 0.0660.064 [.301] Capri Sun/Private Label 0.0110.007 [.102] Capri Sun/Welchs 0.0530.018 [.003] Capri Sun/Sunny Delight 0.0350.017 [.035] Capri Sun/Minute Maid 0.0660.021 [.002] Capri Sun/Tropicana 0.0270.009 [.003] Kool-Aid/Private Label 0.0530.023 [.813] Kool-Aid/Welchs -0.0920.063 [.147] Kool-Aid/Sunny Delight -0.1110.052 [.031] Kool-Aid/Minute Maid 0.0980.068 [.150] Kool-Aid/Tropicana 0.1000.031 [.001] Gatorade/Private Label 0.0780.002 [.000] Gatorade/Welchs 0.0370.006 [.000] Gatorade/Sunny Delight 0.0300.006 [.000] Gatorade/Minute Maid 0.0580.007 [.000] Gatorade/Tropicana 0.0120.003 [.000] POWERade/Private Label 0.0100.012 [.932]

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82 Table 6-7. Continued Category Brands Estimate Std. Error P-Value Fruit Drinks/Fruit Juice POWERade/Welch's 0.1770.036 [.000] POWERade/Sunny Delight 0.0550.029 [.057] POWERade/Minute Maid 0.2130.042 [.000] POWERade/Tropicana 0.0180.016 [.263] Private Label/Private Label -0.0030.033 [.933] Private Label/Welchs 0.1130.059 [.057] Private Label/Sunny Delight 0.1470.069 [.033] Private Label/Minute Maid 0.1210.057 [.035] Private Label/Tropicana 0.0310.043 [.470] Fruit Drinks/Fruit Drinks Sunny Delight/Sunny Delight -2.8270.193 [.000] Sunny Delight/Capri Sun 0.3870.111 [.001] Sunny Delight/Kool-Aid 0.5230.103 [.000] Sunny Delight/Gatorade 0.2240.144 [.120] Sunny Delight/POWERade 0.1850.104 [.075] Sunny Delight/Private Label -0.2020.163 [.216] Capri Sun/Sunny Delight 0.1400.040 [.001] Capri Sun/Capri Sun -1.8570.097 [.000] Capri Sun/Kool-Aid 0.0450.042 [.292] Capri Sun/Gatorade 0.3150.081 [.000] Capri Sun/POWERade 0.1630.049 [.001] Capri Sun/Private Label 0.1710.035 [.000] Kool-Aid/Sunny Delight 0.3650.072 [.000] Kool-Aid/Capri Sun 0.0860.081 [.292] Kool-Aid/Kool-Aid -2.1060.146 [.000] Kool-Aid/Gatorade 0.3760.088 [.000] Kool-Aid/POWERade 0.1730.087 [.049] Kool-Aid/Private Label 0.1620.109 [.137] Gatorade/Sunny Delight 0.0280.018 [.120] Gatorade/Capri Sun 0.1100.028 [.000] Gatorade/Kool-Aid 0.0680.016 [.000] Gatorade/Gatorade -0.9050.081 [.000] Gatorade/POWERade 0.0750.018 [.000] Gatorade/Private Label 0.0590.011 [.000] POWERade/Sunny Delight 0.0960.054 [.075] POWERade/Capri Sun 0.2340.070 [.001] POWERade/Kool-Aid 0.1290.065 [.049] POWERade/Gatorade 0.3060.074 [.000]

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83 Table 6-7. Continued Category Brands Estimate Std. Error P-Value Fruit Drinks/Fruit Drinks POWERade/POWERade -1.9880.117 [.000] POWERade/Private Label 0.0420.061 [.499] Private Label/Sunny Delight -0.1010.081 [.216] Private Label/Capri Sun 0.2360.048 [.000] Private Label/Kool-Aid 0.1160.078 [.137] Private Label /Gatorade 0.2320.042 [.000] Private Label/POWERade 0.0400.059 [.499] Private Label/Private Label -0.9260.198 [.000]

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84 Table 6-8. Orange juice own and cross category compensated price elasticities for Retailer Z Category Brands Estimate Std. Error P-value Orange Juice/Orange Juice Floridas Natural\F loridas Natural -2.8680.146 [.000] Floridas Natural\Minute Maid 0.5110.075 [.000] Floridas Natural\Tropicana 1.1530.107 [.000] Minute Maid\Floridas Natural 1.0710.157 [.000] Minute Maid\Minute Maid -3.7690.249 [.000] Minute Maid\Tropicana 1.4950.167 [.000] Tropicana\Floridas Natural 0.2410.022 [.000] Tropicana\Minute Maid 0.1490.017 [.000] Tropicana\Tropicana -0.7540.040 [.000]Orange Juice/Fruit Juice Florida's Natural\Minute Maid -0.0180.036 [.616] Florida's Natural\Newman's Own 0.1490.036 [.000] Florida's Natural\Turkey Hill 0.0350.014 [.016] Florida's Natural\Vita J 0.0130.006 [.033] Florida's Natural\Welchs 0.0490.023 [.032] Florida's Natural\Tropicana 0.0970.032 [.002] Minute Maid\Minute Maid 0.1700.072 [.018] Minute Maid\Newman's Own 0.1690.051 [.001] Minute Maid\Turkey Hill 0.0270.020 [.174] Minute Maid\Vita J 0.0080.008 [.313] Minute Maid\Welchs 0.0490.037 [.186] Minute Maid\Tropicana 0.1520.082 [.064] Tropicana\Minute Maid 0.0210.006 [.000] Tropicana\Newman's Own 0.0300.005 [.000] Tropicana\Turkey Hill 0.0100.002 [.000] Tropicana\Vita J 0.0030.001 [.000] Tropicana\Welchs 0.0180.003 [.000] Tropicana\Tropicana 0.0290.007 [.000]

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85 Table 6-8. Continued Category Brands Estimate Std. Error P-value Orange Juice/Fruit Drink Florida's Natural\Capri Sun 0.1030.051 [.046] Florida's Natural\Gatorade 0.3910.105 [.000] Florida's Natural\Minute Maid 0.1680.053 [.002] Florida's Natural\POWERade 0.1710.034 [.000] Florida's Natural\Snapple 0.0470.039 [.232] Minute Maid\Capri Sun 0.1250.128 [.330] Minute Maid\Gatorade 0.3300.212 [.118] Minute Maid\Minute Maid -0.0380.056 [.492] Minute Maid\POWERade 0.3390.090 [.000] Minute Maid\Snapple -0.1280.092 [.167] Tropicana\Capri Sun 0.0640.012 [.000] Tropicana\Gatorade 0.1300.025 [.000] Tropicana\Minute Maid 0.0070.005 [.176] Tropicana\POWERade 0.0540.008 [.000] Tropicana\Snapple 0.0000.007 [.971]

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86 Table 6-9. Fruit juice own and cross category compensated price elasticities for Retailer Z Category Brands Estimate Std. Error P-value Fruit Juice/Orange Juice Minute Maid\Florida's Natural -0.0560.111 [.616] Minute Maid\Minute Maid 0.2480.105 [.018] Minute Maid\Tropicana 0.3140.084 [.000] Newman's Own\Florida's Natural 1.9920.475 [.000] Newman's Own\Minute Maid 1.0750.323 [.001] Newman's Own\Tropicana 1.8930.294 [.000] Turkey Hill\Florida's Natural 0.3890.161 [.016] Turkey Hill\Minute Maid 0.1440.106 [.174] Turkey Hill\Tropicana 0.5240.093 [.000] Vita J\Florida's Natural 0.4980.234 [.033] Vita J\Minute Maid 0.1420.141 [.313] Vita J\Tropicana 0.4460.123 [.000] Welchs\Florida's Natural 0.3890.181 [.032] Welchs\Minute Maid 0.1840.139 [.186] Welchs\Tropicana 0.6710.112 [.000] Tropicana\Florida's Natural 0.2290.075 [.002] Tropicana\Minute Maid 0.1710.092 [.064] Tropicana\Tropicana 0.3290.073 [.000]Fruit Juice/Fruit Juice Minute Maid\Minute Maid -2.0200.153 [.000] Minute Maid\Newmans Own 0.2120.093 [.022] Minute Maid\Turkey Hill 0.0420.034 [.217] Minute Maid\Vita J 0.0210.015 [.145] Minute Maid\Welchs 0.0000.059 [.996] Minute Maid\Tropicana 0.3370.071 [.000] Newman's Own\Minute Maid 0.9270.406 [.022] Newman's Own\Newmans Own -8.1000.643 [.000] Newman's Own\Turkey Hill 0.0610.189 [.747] Newman's Own\Vita J -0.0540.084 [.519] Newman's Own\Welchs 1.1130.290 [.000] Newman's Own\Tropicana 0.2930.221 [.186] Turkey Hill\Minute Maid 0.1540.125 [.217] Turkey Hill\Newmans Own 0.0510.158 [.747] Turkey Hill\Turkey Hill -2.3560.107 [.000] Turkey Hill\Vita J 0.0540.039 [.165] Turkey Hill\Welchs 0.4890.105 [.000] Turkey Hill\Tropicana 0.1910.072 [.008]

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87 Table 6-9. Continued Category Brands Estimate Std. Error P-value Fruit Juice/Fruit Juice Vita J\Minute Maid 0.2600.179 [.145] Vita J\Newmans Own -0.1500.232 [.519] Vita J\Turkey Hill 0.1790.129 [.165] Vita J\Vita J -0.8830.128 [.000] Vita J\Welchs -0.2720.149 [.067] Vita J\Tropicana 0.1790.090 [.048] Welchs\Minute Maid 0.0010.152 [.996] Welchs\Newmans Own 0.6580.171 [.000] Welch's\Turkey Hill 0.3460.074 [.000] Welch's\Vita J -0.0580.032 [.067] Welch's\Welchs -3.5890.161 [.000] Welch's\Tropicana 0.2920.082 [.000] Tropicana\Minute Maid 0.2590.055 [.000] Tropicana\Newmans Own 0.0520.039 [.186] Tropicana\Turkey Hill 0.0400.015 [.008] Tropicana\Vita J 0.0110.006 [.048] Tropicana\Welchs 0.0870.024 [.000] Tropicana\Tropicana -1.6370.080 [.000]Fruit Juice/Fruit Drinks Minute Maid\Capri Sun 0.0340.069 [.624] Minute Maid\Gatorade 0.1370.090 [.128] Minute Maid\Minute Maid 0.4740.104 [.000] Minute Maid\POWERade 0.0050.109 [.962] Minute Maid\Snapple 0.2510.100 [.012] Newman's Own\Capri Sun 0.7430.223 [.001] Newman's Own\Gatorade 1.0030.277 [.000] Newman's Own\Minute Maid -0.9590.522 [.066] Newman's Own\POWERade -0.1690.348 [.627] Newman's Own\Snapple 0.1820.329 [.581] Turkey Hill\Capri Sun 0.2610.071 [.000] Turkey Hill\Gatorade 0.2060.093 [.027] Turkey Hill\Minute Maid -0.1850.182 [.309] Turkey Hill\POWERade -0.0140.104 [.896] Turkey Hill\Snapple 0.0940.099 [.343] Vita J\Capri Sun 0.1250.092 [.174] Vita J\Gatorade 0.0820.118 [.490] Vita J\Minute Maid -0.4400.273 [.107] Vita J\POWERade -0.0780.157 [.619]

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88 Table 6-9. Continued Category Brands Estimate Std. Error P-value Fruit Juice/Fruit Drinks Vita J\Snapple -0.0870.137 [.528] Welchs\Capri Sun 0.1220.088 [.163] Welchs\Gatorade 0.1530.126 [.226] Welchs\Minute Maid -0.0050.200 [.981] Welchs\POWERade 0.5330.129 [.000] Welchs\Snapple 0.3030.123 [.014] Tropicana\Capri Sun 0.2250.066 [.001] Tropicana\Gatorade -0.1260.087 [.149] Tropicana\Minute Maid 0.1470.043 [.001] Tropicana\POWERade 0.0470.073 [.520] Tropicana\Snapple 0.1660.069 [.015]

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89 Table 6-10. Fruit drink own and cross category compensated pr ice elasticities for Retailer Z Category Brands EstimateStd. Error P-value Fruit Drinks/Orange Juice Capri Sun\Florida's Natural 0.1830.092 [.046] Capri Sun\Minute Maid 0.1060.109 [.330] Capri Sun\Tropicana 0.5450.101 [.000] Gatorade\Florida's Natural 0.2320.062 [.000] Gatorade\Minute Maid 0.0930.060 [.118] Gatorade\Tropicana 0.3700.070 [.000] Minute Maid\Florida's Natural 0.8800.280 [.002] Minute Maid\Minute Maid -0.0960.140 [.492] Minute Maid\Tropicana 0.1710.126 [.176] POWERade\Florida's Natural 1.1210.223 [.000] POWERade\Minute Maid 1.0640.283 [.000] POWERade\Tropicana 1.6860.244 [.000] Snapple\Florida's Natural 0.1460.122 [.232] Snapple\Minute Maid -0.1910.138 [.167] Snapple\Tropicana -0.0040.108 [.971]Fruit Drinks/Fruit Juices Capri Sun\Minute Maid 0.0200.040 [.624] Capri Sun\Newman's Own 0.0990.030 [.001] Capri Sun\Turkey Hill 0.0420.011 [.000] Capri Sun\Vita J 0.0060.004 [.174] Capri Sun\Welchs 0.0280.020 [.163] Capri Sun\Tropicana 0.1710.050 [.001] Gatorade\Minute Maid 0.0270.017 [.128] Gatorade\Newman's Own 0.0440.012 [.000] Gatorade\Turkey Hill 0.0110.005 [.027] Gatorade\Vita J 0.0010.002 [.490] Gatorade\Welchs 0.0110.009 [.226] Gatorade\Tropicana -0.0320.022 [.149] Minute Maid\Minute Maid 0.8160.178 [.000] Minute Maid\Newman's Own -0.3770.205 [.066] Minute Maid\Turkey Hill -0.0870.085 [.309] Minute Maid\Vita J -0.0620.039 [.107] Minute Maid\Welchs -0.0030.133 [.981] Minute Maid\Tropicana 0.3280.097 [.001] POWERade\Minute Maid 0.0110.234 [.962] POWERade\Newman's Own -0.0830.171 [.627] POWERade\Turkey Hill -0.0080.061 [.896] POWERade\Vita J -0.0140.028 [.619]

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90 Table 6-10. Continued Category Brands EstimateStd. Error P-value Fruit Drinks/Fruit Juices POWERade\Welchs 0.4440.107 [.000] POWERade\Tropicana 0.1310.204 [.520] Snapple\Minute Maid 0.2570.102 [.012] Snapple\Newman's Own 0.0430.077 [.581] Snapple\Turkey Hill 0.0260.028 [.343] Snapple\Vita J -0.0070.012 [.528] Snapple\Welch's 0.1200.049 [.014] Snapple\Tropicana 0.2210.091 [.015]Fruit Drinks/Fruit Drinks Capri Sun\Capri Sun -1.9960.123 [.000] Capri Sun\Gatorade 0.6610.121 [.000] Capri Sun\Minute Maid 0.1060.032 [.001] Capri Sun\POWERade 0.0930.058 [.109] Capri Sun\Snapple -0.0630.056 [.255] Gatorade\Capri Sun 0.2190.040 [.000] Gatorade\Gatorade -1.0940.105 [.000] Gatorade\Minute Maid 0.0320.014 [.019] Gatorade\POWERade 0.0680.023 [.003] Gatorade\Snapple 0.0170.025 [.484] Minute Maid\Capri Sun 0.3130.094 [.001] Minute Maid\Gatorade 0.2820.120 [.019] Minute Maid\Minute Maid -1.4740.340 [.000] Minute Maid\POWERade -0.0550.143 [.699] Minute Maid\Snapple -0.6360.141 [.000] POWERade\Capri Sun 0.3420.213 [.109] POWERade\Gatorade 0.7520.253 [.003] POWERade\Minute Maid -0.0690.178 [.699] POWERade\POWERade -5.3120.400 [.000] POWERade\Snapple -0.0640.305 [.834] Snapple\Capri Sun -0.1110.098 [.255] Snapple\Gatorade 0.0910.131 [.484] Snapple\Minute Maid -0.3790.084 [.000] Snapple\POWERade -0.0310.145 [.834] Snapple\Snapple -0.5310.311 [.088]

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91 CHAPTER 7 CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS The Rotterdam model developed by Theil and Barten was used to estimate the demand interrelationship between brands of orange juice, fruit jui ce, and fruit drinks. The study used aggregate store level scanner data containing weekly sales, price, and promotional information on all individual brands. These data were used to test for separability within the fruit juice market and to evaluate the impact of promotional strategies on the fruit juice/drink demand. Block-wise separability is a form of weak separability that imposes rest rictions on consumer behavior limiting the degree of substitution between goods in different groups. Results from the separability tests carried out in this study reject the hypothesis of block-wise dependence suggesting that the marginal utility of orange juice is imp acted by changes in fruit juice and fruit drink expenditures and consumption. The impact of promotional strate gies on the demand for br ands within the fruit juice market was also evaluated in this study. Results indicate that displays combined with feature advertisements had the largest imp act on the demand for the beverages studied. Compensated price elasticities and income elasticities sugge st that consumers have a stronger preference for fruit drink beverages. Th us, increases in consumers expenditures would increase the demand for brands in this category at the expense of orange juice beverages. Additionally, the cross price elasticities for orange juice give n a price change in fruit juices and fruit juices given a price change in orange jui ce were asymmetric. Fruit juice and fruit drinks were more responsive to price changes of brands of orange juice than or ange juice brands were to price changes in either fruit juices or fruit drinks. The results also suggest that the majority of the cross price elasticities we re in the inelastic range. Based upon these results, one can concluded that competition within fruit juice ma rket in not restricted to competition within

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92 groups. In fact, fruit drinks and orange juice se em to be major competitors and price shocks and decreases in orange juice supply causes the demand for this fruit drinks to increase. This study also assessed the impact of retail promotional strategies on the demand for various brands of orange juice, fruit juice, and fruit drinks at two retailers with different pricing philosophies. Store level elasticities differ because consumers respond to retailing policies across stores. Retailer X competes on quality rather th an price and Retail Z is a discount retailer. Coefficients for all promotional tactics, display only, feature only, and display with feature, are all positive. Promotional elasticities explain the impact of increasing the promotional activity of good j on the demand for good i Shoppers at Retailer Z were mo re deal sensitive than shoppers at Retailer X. This is expected since Retailer Z is discount retailer a nd attracts consumers that are search of a deal. Hoch et al. (1995) suggest that elasticity measures are closely related to the characteristics of the consumers and the competitive environment. Despite this difference in magnitude of elasticities, the overall impact of promotions on demand is relatively the same. For both retailers the promotional elasticities were the in elastic range. Since consumers view beverage products as necessities consumers will purchase the goods regardless of a deal. Therefore, retailers may promote beverages as a means of increasing store traffic and increasing store revenue by using a loss leader strategy. The beverage promotions may entice the consumer to the store and the retailer increases it profits when the shopper purchases other full margin products. Additionally, the maturity of fruit ju ice market and the popular ity of brands included in the study may contribute to the inelastic finding. Previous research suggests that higher market share brands possess lower deal elasticities This study focuses on brands that control at least 5 % of the market share in their respective markets. This study suggests that retail promotions do not result into large increases in demand, but it does not suggest that retail

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93 promotion do not increase store sales. To assess th e impact of promotions on the retailer, future research can evaluate the manner in which store revenue changes in response to promotions. Since brands of orange juice, fruit juice, a nd fruit drinks are all competing for a portion of consumers beverage expenditu res orange juice manufacturers must survey the complete beverage landscape in order to develop an effect ive marketing plan that will increase its brands market share. The orange juice industry must pay particular attention to the single serve brands and isotonics which have adverse effects on the demand for orange juice. Promotional strategies were found to have minimal impacts on demand for fr uit juices. Future research should include a lag effect to observe stockpiling and switc hing behavior caused by retail promotions. As block-wise dependence is rejected, it is not plausible to believe that block independence, a stronger hypothesis will hold. T hus, when analyzing the demand for beverages, brand managers should not focus solely other brea kfast juices or other isotonics, but one must focus on all beverages simultaneously. Compensa ted price elasticities indicate that orange juices, fruit juices, and fruit drinks are substitute s. Since separability among selected fruit juice categories is rejected, future res earch should test separability of fruit juice, water, and carbonated drinks to fully understand the beverage industry.

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94 APPENDIX A PARAMETER ESTIMATES FOR SEPARABILITY MODEL Table A-1. Marginal propensity to consume estimates Categories Brands EstimateStd. Error P-value Orange Juice Florida's Natural 0.026 0.017 [.132] Minute Maid 0.085 0.013 [.000] Private Label 0.082 0.012 [.000] Tropicana 0.159 0.024 [.000] Fruit Juices Minute Maid 0.040 0.005 [.000] Private Label 0.002 0.001 [.057] Sunny D 0.009 0.001 [.000] Tropicana 0.024 0.003 [.000] Welch's 0.016 0.003 [.000] Fruit Drinks Capri Sun 0.091 0.011 [.000] Gatorade 0.344 0.024 [.000] Hi C 0.023 0.007 [.001] POWERade 0.056 0.005 [.000] Sunny D 0.013 0.003 [.000] Tropicana 0.069 0.009 [.000]

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95 Table A-2. Separability m odel Slutsky coefficients Brands Estimate Std. Error P-value Florida's Natural (OJ)/Florida's Natural -0.2000.015 [.000] Florida's Natural (OJ)/Minute Maid (OJ) 0.0370.010 [.000] Florida's Natural (OJ)/Private Label (OJ) 0.0170.010 [.093] Florida's Natural (OJ)/Tr opicana (OJ) 0.0890.014 [.000] Florida's Natural (OJ)/Minute Maid (FJ) 0.0080.004 [.051] Florida's Natural (OJ)/Private Label (FJ) -0.0010.001 [.484] Florida's Natural (OJ)/Sunny D (FJ) 0.0010.001 [.452] Florida's Natural (OJ)/Tr opicana (FJ) 0.0070.003 [.018] Florida's Natural (OJ)/Welch's (FJ) 0.0040.002 [.062] Florida's Natural (OJ)/Capri Sun (FD) 0.0110.009 [.199] Florida's Natural (OJ)/Gat orade (FD) 0.0040.012 [.727] Florida's Natural (OJ)/Hi C (FD) 0.0020.006 [.721] Florida's Natural (OJ)/POWERade (FD) 0.0050.004 [.185] Florida's Natural (OJ)/Sunny D (FD) 0.0020.002 [.358] Florida's Natural (OJ)/Tr opicana (FD) 0.0130.007 [.055] Minute Maid (OJ)/Minute Maid (OJ) -0.2160.013 [.000] Minute Maid (OJ)/Private La bel (OJ) 0.0180.010 [.061] Minute Maid (OJ)/Tropicana (OJ) 0.0870.012 [.000] Minute Maid (OJ)/Minute Maid (FJ) 0.0100.005 [.037] Minute Maid (OJ)/Private Label (FJ) -0.00010.001 [.911] Minute Maid (OJ)/Sunny D (FJ) 0.0010.001 [.377] Minute Maid (OJ)/Tropicana (FJ) 0.0050.003 [.106] Minute Maid (OJ)/Welch's (FJ) 0.0060.003 [.033] Minute Maid (OJ)/Capri Sun (FD) 0.0300.009 [.000] Minute Maid (OJ)/Gatorade (FD) 0.0240.010 [.015] Minute Maid (OJ)/Hi C (FD) -0.0050.007 [.401] Minute Maid (OJ)/POWERade (FD) 0.0010.004 [.737] Minute Maid (OJ)/Sunny D (FD) 0.0080.003 [.001] Minute Maid (OJ)/Tropicana (FD) -0.0070.008 [.391] Private Label (OJ)/Private La bel (OJ) -0.1710.015 [.000] Private Label (OJ)/Tropicana (OJ) 0.0510.012 [.000] Private Label (OJ)/Minute Maid (FJ) 0.0030.003 [.271] Private Label (OJ)/Private Label (FJ) 0.0010.001 [.451] Private Label (OJ)/Sunny D (FJ) 0.0040.002 [.017] Private Label (OJ)/Tropicana (FJ) 0.0040.004 [.284] Private Label (OJ)/Welch's (FJ) 0.0050.004 [.138] Private Label (OJ)/Capri Sun (FD) 0.0050.009 [.558] Private Label (OJ)/Gatorade (FD) 0.0330.009 [.000]

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96 Table A-2. Continued Brands Estimate Std. Error P-value Private Label (OJ)/Hi C (FD) 0.0310.008 [.000] Private Label (OJ)/POWERade (FD) -0.0030.005 [.535] Private Label (OJ)/Sunny D (FD) 0.0100.003 [.000] Private Label (OJ)/Tropicana (FD) -0.0080.009 [.387] Tropicana (OJ)/Tropicana (OJ) -0.4330.025 [.000] Tropicana (OJ)/Minute Maid (FJ) 0.0150.005 [.002] Tropicana (OJ)/Private Labe l (FJ) 0.00010.001 [.915] Tropicana (OJ)/Sunny D (FJ) 0.0040.001 [.010] Tropicana (OJ)/Tropicana (FJ) 0.0040.004 [.244] Tropicana (OJ)/Welch's (FJ) 0.0070.003 [.026] Tropicana (OJ)/Capri Sun (FD) 0.0410.010 [.000] Tropicana (OJ)/Gatorade (FD) 0.0650.017 [.000] Tropicana (OJ)/Hi C (FD) 0.0310.007 [.000] Tropicana (OJ)/POWERade (FD) 0.0200.005 [.000] Tropicana (OJ)/Sunny D (FD) 0.0060.003 [.016] Tropicana (OJ)/Tropicana (FD) 0.0130.009 [.132] Minute Maid (FJ)/Minute Maid (FJ) -0.0540.005 [.000] Minute Maid (FJ)/Private Label (FJ) 0.0010.001 [.112] Minute Maid (FJ)/Sunny D (FJ) -0.0010.001 [.426] Minute Maid (FJ)/Tropicana (FJ) 0.0050.003 [.133] Minute Maid (FJ)/Welch's (FJ) 0.0100.003 [.001] Minute Maid (FJ)/Capri Sun (FD) 0.0110.005 [.014] Minute Maid (FJ)/Gatorade (FD) 0.0150.004 [.000] Minute Maid (FJ)/Hi C (FD) -0.0160.006 [.008] Minute Maid (FJ)/POWERade (FD) -0.0070.003 [.040] Minute Maid (FJ)/Sunny D (FD) 0.0060.002 [.002] Minute Maid (FJ)/Tropicana (FD) -0.0070.006 [.272] Private Label (FJ)/Private La bel (FJ) -0.0080.000 [.000] Private Label (FJ)/Sunny D (FJ) 0.0020.001 [.003] Private Label (FJ)/Tropicana (FJ) 0.0020.001 [.000] Private Label (FJ)/Welch's (FJ) -0.0010.001 [.214] Private Label (FJ)/Capri Sun (FD) -0.0010.001 [.430] Private Label (FJ)/Gatorad e (FD) -0.0010.001 [.415] Private Label (FJ)/Hi C (FD) 0.0050.001 [.000] Private Label(FJ)/POWERade (FD) 0.00040.001 [.492] Private Label (FJ)/Sunny D (FD) -0.0030.001 [.000] Private Label (FJ)/Tropicana (FD) 0.0020.001 [.147] Sunny D (FJ)/Sunny D (FJ) -0.0210.002 [.000]

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97 Table A-2. Continued Brands Estimate Std. Error P-value Sunny D (FJ)/Tropicana (FJ) 0.002 0.001 [.089] Sunny D (FJ)/Welch's (FJ) -0.002 0.002 [.187] Sunny D (FJ)/Capri Sun (FD) 0.000 0.001 [.888] Sunny D (FJ)/Gatorade (FD) 0.002 0.001 [.045] Sunny D (FJ)/Hi C (FD) 0.007 0.002 [.002] Sunny D (FJ)/POWERade (FD) -0.001 0.001 [.469] Sunny D (FJ)/Sunny D (FD) 0.000 0.002 [.850] Sunny D (FJ)/Tropicana (FD) 0.003 0.002 [.102] Tropicana (FJ)/Tropicana (FJ) -0.052 0.003 [.000] Tropicana (FJ)/Welch's (FJ) 0.002 0.002 [.502] Tropicana (FJ)/Capri Sun (FD) 0.011 0.003 [.001] Tropicana (FJ)/Gatorade (FD) 0.010 0.003 [.000] Tropicana (FJ)/Hi C (FD) 0.004 0.004 [.339] Tropicana (FJ)/POWERade (FD) -0.009 0.002 [.000] Tropicana (FJ)/Sunny D (FD) 0.001 0.001 [.431] Tropicana (FJ)/Tropicana (FD) 0.004 0.005 [.409] Welch's (FJ)/Welch's (FJ) -0.042 0.004 [.000] Welch's (FJ)/Capri Sun (FD) 0.004 0.003 [.162] Welch's (FJ)/Gatorade (FD) 0.004 0.002 [.078] Welch's (FJ)/Hi C (FD) 0.006 0.005 [.210] Welch's (FJ)/POWERade (FD) -0.004 0.002 [.083] Welch's (FJ)/Sunny D (FD) 0.001 0.002 [.546] Welch's (FJ)/Tropicana (FD) 0.001 0.004 [.826] Capri Sun (FD)/Capri Sun (FD) -0.182 0.011 [.000] Capri Sun (FD)/Gatorade (FD) 0.034 0.008 [.000] Capri Sun (FD)/Hi C (FD) 0.024 0.007 [.000] Capri Sun (FD)/POWERade (FD) 0.009 0.004 [.035] Capri Sun (FD)/Sunny D (FD) 0.008 0.002 [.001] Capri Sun (FD)/Tropicana (FD) -0.006 0.008 [.408] Gatorade (FD)/Gatorade (FD) -0.217 0.019 [.000] Gatorade (FD)/Hi C (FD) 0.008 0.005 [.115] Gatorade (FD)/POWERade (FD) 0.019 0.004 [.000] Gatorade (FD)/Sunny D (FD) 0.001 0.002 [.521] Gatorade (FD)/Tropicana (FD) -0.001 0.007 [.923] Hi C (FD)/Hi C (FD) -0.134 0.013 [.000] Hi C (FD)/POWERade (FD) 0.012 0.005 [.022] Hi C (FD)/Sunny D (FD) 0.010 0.003 [.003] Hi C (FD)/Tropicana (FD) 0.016 0.009 [.072]

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98 Table A-2. Continued Brands Estimate Std. Error P-value POWERade (FD)/POWERade (FD) -0.051 0.004 [.000] POWERade (FD)/Sunny D (FD) -0.007 0.002 [.000] POWERade (FD)/Tropicana (FD) 0.016 0.005 [.003] Sunny D (FD)/Sunny D (FD) -0.041 0.002 [.000] Sunny D (FD)/Tropicana (FD) -0.003 0.003 [.323] Tropicana (FD)/Tropicana (FD) -0.036 0.013 [.006]

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99 APPENDIX B PARAMETER ESTIMATES AND PROMOTIONAL ELASTICITIES FOR RETAILER X Table B-1. Marginal Expenditure Shares Category Brands EstimateStd. Error P-Value Orange Juice Private Label 0.098 0.013 [.000] Minute Maid 0.058 0.012 [.000] Tropicana 0.127 0.015 [.000] Fruit Juices Private Label 0.004 0.001 [.000] Welchs 0.019 0.003 [.000] Sunny D 0.017 0.003 [.000] Minute Maid 0.038 0.003 [.000] Tropicana 0.008 0.001 [.000] Fruit Drinks Sunny D 0.026 0.008 [.001] Capri Sun 0.091 0.013 [.000] Kool-Aid 0.051 0.007 [.000] Gatorade 0.373 0.035 [.000] POWERade 0.047 0.008 [.000] Private Label 0.042 0.005 [.000]

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100 Table B-2. Parameter Estimates Brands EstimateStd. Error P-value Display 0.0010.000 [.000] Feature 0.00020.000 [.001] Feature & Display 0.0020.000 [.000] RHO 0.9170.014 [.000] Private Label (OJ)/Private Label (OJ) -0.1760.006 [.000] Private Label (OJ) /Minute Maid (OJ) 0.0410.004 [.000] Private Label(OJ)/Tropicana (OJ) 0.0440.004 [.000] Private Label (OJ)/Private Label (FJ) -0.0020.001 [.082] Private Label (OJ)/Welchs (FJ) 0.0070.002 [.000] Private Label (OJ)/Sunny De light (FJ) 0.0050.002 [.001] Private Label (OJ)/Minute Maid (FJ) 0.0100.002 [.000] Private Label (OJ)/Tropicana (FJ) 0.0020.001 [.058] Private Label (OJ)/Sunny De light (FD) 0.0130.003 [.000] Private Label (OJ)/Capri Sun (FD) 0.0080.004 [.045] Private Label (OJ)/Kool-Aid (FD) 0.0090.003 [.001] Private Label (OJ)/Gatorade (FD) 0.0290.006 [.000] Private Label (OJ)/POWERade(FD) 0.0110.004 [.003] Private Label (OJ)/Private Label (FD) -0.0030.003 [.435] Minute Maid (OJ) /Minute Maid (OJ) -0.1940.006 [.000] Minute Maid (OJ)/Tropicana (OJ) 0.0530.004 [.000] Minute Maid (OJ)/Private Label (FJ) 0.0020.000 [.000] Minute Maid (OJ)/Welchs (FJ) 0.0030.001 [.017] Minute Maid (OJ)/Sunny Deli ght (FJ) 0.0060.001 [.000] Minute Maid (OJ)/Minute Maid (FJ) 0.0140.002 [.000] Minute Maid (OJ)/Tropicana (FJ) 0.0030.001 [.000] Minute Maid (OJ)/Sunny Deli ght (FD) 0.0060.002 [.008] Minute Maid (OJ)/Capri Sun (FD) 0.0230.004 [.000] Minute Maid (OJ)/Kool-Aid (FD) 0.0100.003 [.000] Minute Maid (OJ)/Gatorade (FD) 0.0170.005 [.001] Minute Maid (OJ)/POWERade(FD) 0.0100.003 [.002] Minute Maid (OJ)/Private Label (FD) 0.0060.002 [.004] Tropicana (OJ)/Tropicana (OJ) -0.2350.007 [.000] Tropicana (OJ)/Private Label (FJ) 0.0020.000 [.000] Tropicana (OJ)/Welchs (FJ) 0.0080.001 [.000] Tropicana (OJ)/Sunny Delight (FJ) 0.0070.001 [.000] Tropicana (OJ)/Minute Maid (FJ) 0.0150.001 [.000]

PAGE 101

101 Table B-2. Continued Brands EstimateStd. Error P-value Tropicana (OJ)/Tropicana (FJ) -0.0060.001 [.000] Tropicana (OJ)/Sunny Delight (FD) 0.0120.003 [.000] Tropicana (OJ)/Capri Sun (FD) 0.0270.004 [.000] Tropicana (OJ)/Kool-Aid (FD) 0.0150.002 [.000] Tropicana (OJ)/Gatorade (FD) 0.0380.006 [.000] Tropicana (OJ)/POWERade(FD) 0.0140.003 [.000] Tropicana (OJ)/Private Label (FD) 0.0060.002 [.003] Private Label (FJ)/Private Label (FJ) -0.0070.001 [.000] Private Label (FJ)/Welchs (FJ) 0.0020.001 [.003] Private Label (FJ)/Sunny Deli ght (FJ) -0.0020.001 [.058] Private Label (FJ)/Minute Maid (FJ) -0.0010.001 [.257] Private Label (FJ)/Tropicana (FJ) 0.0000.001 [.737] Private Label (FJ)/Sunny Delight (FD) 0.0030.001 [.016] Private Label (FJ)/Capri Sun (FD) 0.0010.000 [.102] Private Label (FJ)/Kool-Aid (FD) 0.0000.001 [.813] Private Label (FJ)/Gator ade (FD) 0.0020.000 [.000] Private Label (FJ)/POWERade(FD) 0.0000.001 [.932] Private Label (FJ)/Private Label (FD) 0.0000.002 [.933] Welchs (FJ)/Welchs (FJ) -0.0540.002 [.000] Welchs (FJ)/Sunny Delight (FJ) 0.0030.002 [.096] Welchs (FJ)/Minute Maid (FJ) 0.0090.002 [.000] Welchs (FJ)/Tropicana (FJ) 0.0020.001 [.073] Welchs (FJ)/Sunny Delight (FD) -0.0010.002 [.780] Welchs (FJ)/Capri Sun (FD) 0.0040.001 [.003] Welchs (FJ)/Kool-Aid (FD) -0.0030.002 [.147] Welchs (FJ)/Gatorade (FD) 0.0070.001 [.000] Welchs (FJ)/POWERade(FD) 0.0090.002 [.000] Welchs (FJ)/Private Label (FD) 0.0060.003 [.057] Sunny Delight (FJ)/Sunny Delight (FJ) -0.0330.003 [.000] Sunny Delight (FJ)/Minute Maid (FJ) -0.0010.001 [.638] Sunny Delight (FJ)/Tropicana (FJ) 0.0000.001 [.835] Sunny Delight (FJ)/Sunny Deli ght (FD) 0.0010.004 [.814] Sunny Delight (FJ)/Capri Sun (FD) 0.0020.001 [.035] Sunny Delight (FJ)/Kool-Aid (FD) -0.0040.002 [.031] Sunny Delight (FJ)/Gatorade (FD) 0.0060.001 [.000] Sunny Delight (FJ)/POWERade(FD) 0.0030.001 [.057] Sunny Delight (FJ)/Private Label (FD) 0.0070.003 [.033]

PAGE 102

102 Table B-2. Continued Brands EstimateStd. Error P-value Minute Maid (FJ)/Minute Maid (FJ) -0.090 0.002 [.000] Minute Maid (FJ)/Tropicana (FJ) 0.002 0.001 [.016] Minute Maid (FJ)/Sunny Deli ght (FD) 0.007 0.002 [.000] Minute Maid (FJ)/Capri Sun (FD) 0.005 0.001 [.000] Minute Maid (FJ)/Kool-Aid (FD) 0.003 0.002 [.224] Minute Maid (FJ)/Gatorade (FD) 0.011 0.001 [.000] Minute Maid (FJ)/POWERade(FD) 0.010 0.002 [.000] Minute Maid (FJ)/Private Label (FD) 0.006 0.003 [.039] Tropicana (FJ)/Tropicana (FJ) -0.015 0.001 [.000] Tropicana (FJ)/Sunny Delight (FD) 0.001 0.002 [.469] Tropicana (FJ)/Capri Sun (FD) 0.002 0.001 [.003] Tropicana (FJ)/Kool-Aid (FD) 0.004 0.001 [.000] Tropicana (FJ)/Gatorade (FD) 0.002 0.001 [.001] Tropicana (FJ)/POWERade(FD) 0.001 0.001 [.249] Tropicana (FJ)/Private La bel (FD) 0.003 0.002 [.236] Sunny Delight (FD)/Sunny Deli ght (FD) -0.075 0.005 [.000] Sunny Delight (FD)/Capri Sun (FD) 0.009 0.003 [.000] Sunny Delight (FD)/Kool-Aid (FD) 0.014 0.003 [.000] Sunny Delight (FD)/Gatorade (FD) 0.007 0.003 [.038] Sunny Delight (FD)/POWERade(FD) 0.005 0.003 [.076] Sunny Delight (FD)/Private Label (FD) -0.002 0.004 [.692] Capri Sun (FD)/Capri Sun (FD) -0.126 0.006 [.000] Capri Sun (FD)/Kool-Aid (FD) 0.001 0.003 [.653] Capri Sun (FD)/Gatorade (FD) 0.022 0.005 [.000] Capri Sun (FD)/POWERade(FD) 0.011 0.003 [.001] Capri Sun (FD)/Private La bel (FD) 0.012 0.002 [.000] Kool-Aid (FD)/Kool-Aid (FD) -0.074 0.005 [.000] Kool-Aid (FD)/Gatorade (FD) 0.014 0.003 [.000] Kool-Aid (FD)/POWERade(FD) 0.006 0.003 [.073] Kool-Aid (FD)/Private Label (FD) 0.005 0.004 [.212] Gatorade (FD)/Gatorade (FD) -0.182 0.015 [.000] Gatorade (FD)/POWERade(FD) 0.015 0.003 [.000] Gatorade (FD)/Private Label (FD) 0.012 0.002 [.000] POWERade (FD)/POWERade(FD) -0.096 0.006 [.000] POWERade (FD)/Private Label (FD) 0.002 0.003 [.538] Private Label (FD)/Private Label (FD) -0.050 0.010 [.000]

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103 Table B-3. Orange juice display elasticities with respect to other beverages Category Brands EstimateStd. Error P-Value Orange Juice/Orange Juice Private Label/Private Label 0.0200.003 [.000] Private Label/Minute Maid -0.0050.001 [.000] Private Label/Tropicana -0.0050.001 [.000] Minute Maid/Private Label -0.0040.001 [.000] Minute Maid/Minute Maid 0.0170.002 [.000] Minute Maid/Tropicana -0.0050.001 [.000] Tropicana/Private Label -0.0050.001 [.000] Tropicana/Minute Maid -0.0050.001 [.000] Tropicana/Tropicana 0.0240.003 [.000]Orange Juice/Fruit Juice Private Label/Private Label 0.0000.000 [.094] Private Label/Welchs -0.0010.000 [.000] Private Label/Sunny Delight -0.0010.000 [.003] Private Label/Minute Maid -0.0010.000 [.000] Private Label/Tropicana 0.0000.000 [.065] Minute Maid/Private Label 0.0000.000 [.000] Minute Maid/Welchs 0.0000.000 [.022] Minute Maid/Sunny Delight -0.0010.000 [.000] Minute Maid/Minute Maid -0.0010.000 [.000] Minute Maid/Tropicana 0.0000.000 [.000] Tropicana/Private Label 0.0000.000 [.000] Tropicana/Welchs -0.0010.000 [.000] Tropicana/Sunny Delight -0.0010.000 [.000] Tropicana/Minute Maid -0.0020.000 [.000] Tropicana/Tropicana 0.0010.000 [.000]

PAGE 104

104 Table B-3. Continued Category Brands EstimateStd. Error P-Value Orange Juice/ Fruit Drinks Private/Sunny Delight -0.0010.000 [.000] Private/Capri Sun -0.0010.000 [.057] Private/Kool-Aid -0.0010.000 [.004] Private/Gatorade -0.0030.001 [.000] Private/POWERade -0.0010.000 [.006] Private/Private 0.0000.000 [.438] Minute Maid/Sunny Delight -0.0010.000 [.015] Minute Maid/Capri Sun -0.0020.000 [.000] Minute Maid/Kool-Aid -0.0010.000 [.001] Minute Maid/Gatorade -0.0020.000 [.002] Minute Maid/POWERade -0.0010.000 [.005] Minute Maid/Private -0.0010.000 [.008] Tropicana/Sunny Delight -0.0010.000 [.000] Tropicana/Capri Sun -0.0030.001 [.000] Tropicana/Kool-Aid -0.0010.000 [.000] Tropicana/Gatorade -0.0040.001 [.000] Tropicana/POWERade -0.0010.000 [.000] Tropicana/Private -0.0010.000 [.006]

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105 Table B-4. Fruit Juice display elastic ities with respect to other beverages Category Brands EstimateStd. Error P-Value Fruit Juice/Orange Juice Private/Private 0.0010.000 [.094] Private/Minute Maid -0.0010.000 [.000] Private/Tropicana -0.0010.000 [.000] Welchs/Private 0.0000.000 [.000] Welchs/Minute Maid 0.0000.000 [.022] Welchs/Tropicana 0.0000.000 [.000] Sunny Delight/Private -0.0040.002 [.003] Sunny Delight/Minute Maid -0.0050.001 [.000] Sunny Delight/Tropicana -0.0060.001 [.000] Minute Maid/Private -0.0020.001 [.000] Minute Maid/Minute Maid -0.0030.001 [.000] Minute Maid/Tropicana -0.0040.001 [.000] Tropicana/Private -0.0010.000 [.065] Tropicana/Minute Maid -0.0010.000 [.000] Tropicana/Tropicana 0.0020.000 [.000]Fruit Juice/Fruit Juice Private Label/Private Label 0.0030.001 [.000] Private Label/Welchs -0.0010.000 [.007] Private Label/Sunny Delight 0.0010.001 [.068] Private Label/Minute Maid 0.0000.000 [.264] Private Label/Tropicana 0.0000.000 [.738] Welchs/Private Label 0.0000.000 [.007] Welchs/Welchs 0.0030.000 [.000] Welchs/Sunny Delight 0.0000.000 [.106] Welchs/Minute Maid 0.0000.000 [.000] Welchs/Tropicana 0.0000.000 [.081] Sunny Delight/Private Label 0.0020.001 [.068] Sunny Delight/Welchs -0.0020.001 [.106] Sunny Delight/Sunny Delight 0.0270.005 [.000] Sunny Delight/Minute Maid 0.0010.001 [.639] Sunny Delight/Tropicana 0.0000.001 [.835]

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106 Table B-4. Continued Category Brands EstimateStd. Error P-Value Fruit Juice/Fruit Juice Minute Maid/Private Label 0.0000.000 [.264] Minute Maid/Welchs -0.0020.001 [.000] Minute Maid/Sunny Delight 0.0000.000 [.639] Minute Maid/Minute Maid 0.0230.003 [.000] Minute Maid/Tropicana 0.0000.000 [.042] Tropicana/Private Label 0.0000.000 [.738] Tropicana/Welchs -0.0010.000 [.081] Tropicana/Sunny Delight 0.0000.001 [.835] Tropicana/Minute Maid -0.0010.000 [.042] Tropicana/Tropicana 0.0050.001 [.000]Fruit Juice/Fruit Drinks Private Label/Sunny Delight -0.0010.001 [.023] Private Label/Capri Sun 0.0000.000 [.108] Private Label/Kool-Aid 0.0000.000 [.814] Private Label/Gatorade -0.0010.000 [.000] Private Label/POWERade 0.0000.000 [.932] Private Label/Private Label 0.0000.001 [.933] Welchs/Sunny Delight 0.0000.000 [.781] Welchs/Capri Sun 0.0000.000 [.005] Welchs/Kool-Aid 0.0000.000 [.151] Welchs/Gatorade 0.0000.000 [.000] Welchs/POWERade 0.0000.000 [.000] Welchs/Private Label 0.0000.000 [.063] Sunny Delight/Sunny Delight -0.0010.003 [.814] Sunny Delight/Capri Sun -0.0020.001 [.043] Sunny Delight/Kool-Aid 0.0030.002 [.041] Sunny Delight/Gatorade -0.0050.001 [.000] Sunny Delight/POWERade -0.0020.001 [.068] Sunny Delight/Private Label -0.0060.003 [.043] Minute Maid/Sunny Delight -0.0020.001 [.001] Minute Maid/Capri Sun -0.0010.000 [.003] Minute Maid/Kool-Aid -0.0010.001 [.157] Minute Maid/Gatorade -0.0030.001 [.000] Minute Maid/POWERade -0.0030.001 [.000] Minute Maid/Private Label -0.0020.001 [.041]

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107 Table B-4. Continued Category Brands EstimateStd. Error P-Value Fruit Juice/Fruit Drinks Tropicana/Sunny Delight -0.0010.001 [.304] Tropicana/Capri Sun -0.0010.000 [.005] Tropicana/Kool-Aid -0.0010.000 [.004] Tropicana/Gatorade -0.0010.000 [.001] Tropicana/POWERade 0.0000.000 [.269] Tropicana/Private Label -0.0010.001 [.473]

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108 Table B-5. Fruit Drink display elastic ities with respect to other beverages Category Brands EstimateStd. Error P-Value Fruit Drinks/Orange Juice Sunny Delight/Private Label -0.0110.003 [.000] Sunny Delight/Minute Maid -0.0050.002 [.015] Sunny Delight/Tropicana -0.0090.003 [.000] Capri Sun/Private Label -0.0040.002 [.057] Capri Sun/Minute Maid -0.0110.002 [.000] Capri Sun/Tropicana -0.0120.002 [.000] Kool-Aid/Private Label -0.0040.001 [.004] Kool-Aid/Minute Maid -0.0040.001 [.001] Kool-Aid/Tropicana -0.0060.001 [.000] Gatorade/Private Label -0.0100.003 [.000] Gatorade/Minute Maid -0.0060.002 [.002] Gatorade/Tropicana -0.0130.003 [.000] POWERade/Private Label -0.0070.002 [.006] POWERade/Minute Maid -0.0060.002 [.005] POWERade/Tropicana -0.0080.002 [.000] Private Label/Private Label 0.0010.002 [.438] Private Label/Minute Maid -0.0030.001 [.008] Private Label/Tropicana -0.0030.001 [.006]Fruit Drinks/Fruit Juice Sunny Delight/Private Label -0.0030.001 [.023] Sunny Delight/Welchs 0.0000.002 [.781] Sunny Delight/Sunny Delight -0.0010.003 [.814] Sunny Delight/Minute Maid -0.0050.002 [.001] Sunny Delight/Tropicana -0.0010.001 [.304] Capri Sun/Private Label 0.0000.000 [.108] Capri Sun/Welchs -0.0020.001 [.005] Capri Sun/Sunny Delight -0.0010.001 [.043] Capri Sun/Minute Maid -0.0020.001 [.003] Capri Sun/Tropicana -0.0010.000 [.005] Kool-Aid/Private Label 0.0000.000 [.814] Kool-Aid/Welchs 0.0010.001 [.151] Kool-Aid/Sunny Delight 0.0020.001 [.041] Kool-Aid/Minute Maid -0.0010.001 [.157] Kool-Aid/Tropicana -0.0020.001 [.004]

PAGE 109

109 Table B-5. Continued Category Brands EstimateStd. Error P-Value Fruit Drinks/Fruit Juice Gatorade/Private Label -0.0010.000 [.000] Gatorade/Welchs -0.0020.001 [.000] Gatorade/Sunny Delight -0.0020.000 [.000] Gatorade/Minute Maid -0.0040.001 [.000] Gatorade/Tropicana -0.0010.000 [.001] POWERade/Privat Label 0.0000.000 [.932] POWERade/Welch's -0.0050.001 [.000] POWERade/Sunny Delight -0.0020.001 [.068] POWERade/Minute Maid -0.0060.002 [.000] POWERade/Tropicana -0.0010.000 [.269] Private Label/Private Label 0.0000.001 [.933] Private Label/Welchs -0.0030.002 [.063] Private Label/Sunny Delight -0.0040.002 [.043] Private Label/Minute Maid -0.0030.001 [.041] Private Label/Tropicana -0.0010.001 [.473]Fruit Drinks/Fruit Drinks Sunny Delight/Sunny Delight 0.0580.009 [.000] Sunny Delight/Capri Sun -0.0080.003 [.002] Sunny Delight/Kool-Aid -0.0110.003 [.000] Sunny Delight/Gatorade -0.0050.003 [.134] Sunny Delight/POWERade -0.0040.002 [.086] Sunny Delight/Private Label 0.0040.003 [.224] Capri Sun/Sunny Delight -0.0050.001 [.002] Capri Sun/Capri Sun 0.0600.008 [.000] Capri Sun/Kool-Aid -0.0010.001 [.300] Capri Sun/Gatorade -0.0100.003 [.000] Capri Sun/POWERade -0.0050.002 [.002] Capri Sun/Private Label -0.0050.001 [.000] Kool-Aid/Sunny Delight -0.0060.001 [.000] Kool-Aid/Capri Sun -0.0010.001 [.300] Kool-Aid/Kool-Aid 0.0320.005 [.000] Kool-Aid/Gatorade -0.0060.002 [.000] Kool-Aid/POWERade -0.0030.001 [.057] Kool-Aid/Private Label -0.0020.002 [.147] Gatorade/Sunny Delight -0.0020.001 [.134] Gatorade/Capri Sun -0.0070.002 [.000] Gatorade/Kool-Aid -0.0050.001 [.000] Gatorade/Gatorade 0.0610.010 [.000] Gatorade/POWERade -0.0050.001 [.000]

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110 Table B-5. Continued Category Brands EstimateStd. Error P-Value Gatorade/Private Label -0.0040.001 [.000] POWERade/Sunny Delight -0.0030.002 [.086] POWERade/Capri Sun -0.0070.002 [.002] POWERade/Kool-Aid -0.0040.002 [.057] POWERade/Gatorade -0.0090.002 [.000] POWERade/POWERade 0.0580.009 [.000] POWERade/Private Label -0.0010.002 [.503] Private Label/Sunny Delight 0.0030.002 [.224] Private Label/Capri Sun -0.0060.001 [.000] Private Label/Kool-Aid -0.0030.002 [.147] Private Label /Gatorade -0.0060.001 [.000] Private Label/POWERade -0.0010.002 [.503] Private Label/Private Label 0.0230.006 [.000]

PAGE 111

111 Table B-6. Orange juice feature elasticities with respect to other beverages Category Brands EstimateStd. Error P-Value Orange Juice/Orange Juice Private Label/Private Label 0.0200.003 [.000] Private Label/Minute Maid -0.0050.001 [.000] Private Label/Tropicana -0.0050.001 [.000] Minute Maid/Private Label -0.0040.001 [.000] Minute Maid/Minute Maid 0.0170.002 [.000] Minute Maid/Tropicana -0.0050.001 [.000] Tropicana/Private Label -0.0050.001 [.000] Tropicana/Minute Maid -0.0050.001 [.000] Tropicana/Tropicana 0.0240.003 [.000] Orange Juice/Fruit Juice Private Label/Private Label 0.0000.000 [.094] Private Label/Welchs -0.0010.000 [.000] Private Label/Sunny Delight-0.0010.000 [.003] Private Label/Minute Maid -0.0010.000 [.000] Private Label/Tropicana 0.0000.000 [.065] Minute Maid/Private Label 0.0000.000 [.000] Minute Maid/Welchs 0.0000.000 [.022] Minute Maid/Sunny Delight -0.0010.000 [.000] Minute Maid/Minute Maid -0.0010.000 [.000] Minute Maid/Tropicana 0.0000.000 [.000] Tropicana/Private Label 0.0000.000 [.000] Tropicana/Welchs -0.0010.000 [.000] Tropicana/Sunny Delight -0.0010.000 [.000] Tropicana/Minute Maid -0.0020.000 [.000] Tropicana/Tropicana 0.0010.000 [.000]

PAGE 112

112 Table B-6. Continued Category Brands EstimateStd. Error P-Value Orange Juice/ Fruit Drinks Private/Sunny Delight -0.0010.000 [.000] Private/Capri Sun -0.0010.000 [.057] Private/Kool-Aid -0.0010.000 [.004] Private/Gatorade -0.0030.001 [.000] Private/POWERade -0.0010.000 [.006] Private/Private 0.0000.000 [.438] Minute Maid/Sunny Delight -0.0010.000 [.015] Minute Maid/Capri Sun -0.0020.000 [.000] Minute Maid/Kool-Aid -0.0010.000 [.001] Minute Maid/Gatorade -0.0020.000 [.002] Minute Maid/POWERade -0.0010.000 [.005] Minute Maid/Private -0.0010.000 [.008] Tropicana/Sunny Delight -0.0010.000 [.000] Tropicana/Capri Sun -0.0030.001 [.000] Tropicana/Kool-Aid -0.0010.000 [.000] Tropicana/Gatorade -0.0040.001 [.000] Tropicana/POWERade -0.0010.000 [.000] Tropicana/Private -0.0010.000 [.006]

PAGE 113

113 Table B-7. Fruit Juice feature elastici ties with respect to other beverages Category Brands EstimateStd. Error P-Value Fruit Juice/Orange Juice Private/Private 0.0010.000 [.094] Private/Minute Maid -0.0010.000 [.000] Private/Tropicana -0.0010.000 [.000] Welchs/Private 0.0000.000 [.000] Welchs/Minute Maid 0.0000.000 [.022] Welchs/Tropicana 0.0000.000 [.000] Sunny Delight/Private -0.0040.002 [.003] Sunny Delight/Minute Maid -0.0050.001 [.000] Sunny Delight/Tropicana -0.0060.001 [.000] Minute Maid/Private -0.0020.001 [.000] Minute Maid/Minute Maid -0.0030.001 [.000] Minute Maid/Tropicana -0.0040.001 [.000] Tropicana/Private -0.0010.000 [.065] Tropicana/Minute Maid -0.0010.000 [.000] Tropicana/Tropicana 0.0020.000 [.000] Fruit Juice/Fruit Juice Private Label/Private Label 0.0030.001 [.000] Private Label/Welchs -0.0010.000 [.007] Private Label/Sunny Delight 0.0010.001 [.068] Private Label/Minute Maid 0.0000.000 [.264] Private Label/Tropicana 0.0000.000 [.738] Welchs/Private Label 0.0000.000 [.007] Welchs/Welchs 0.0030.000 [.000] Welchs/Sunny Delight 0.0000.000 [.106] Welchs/Minute Maid 0.0000.000 [.000] Welchs/Tropicana 0.0000.000 [.081] Sunny Delight/Private Label 0.0020.001 [.068] Sunny Delight/Welchs -0.0020.001 [.106] Sunny Delight/Sunny Delight 0.0270.005 [.000] Sunny Delight/Minute Maid 0.0010.001 [.639] Sunny Delight/Tropicana 0.0000.001 [.835]

PAGE 114

114 Table B-7. Continued Category Brands EstimateStd. Error P-Value Fruit Juice/Fruit Juice Minute Maid/Private Label 0.0000.000 [.264] Minute Maid/Welchs -0.0020.001 [.000] Minute Maid/Sunny Delight 0.0000.000 [.639] Minute Maid/Minute Maid 0.0230.003 [.000] Minute Maid/Tropicana 0.0000.000 [.042] Tropicana/Private Label 0.0000.000 [.738] Tropicana/Welchs -0.0010.000 [.081] Tropicana/Sunny Delight 0.0000.001 [.835] Tropicana/Minute Maid -0.0010.000 [.042] Tropicana/Tropicana 0.0050.001 [.000]Fruit Juice/Fruit Drinks Private Label/Sunny Delight -0.0010.001 [.023] Private Label/Capri Sun 0.0000.000 [.108] Private Label/Kool-Aid 0.0000.000 [.814] Private Label/Gatorade -0.0010.000 [.000] Private Label/POWERade 0.0000.000 [.932] Private Label/Private Label 0.0000.001 [.933] Welchs/Sunny Delight 0.0000.000 [.781] Welchs/Capri Sun 0.0000.000 [.005] Welchs/Kool-Aid 0.0000.000 [.151] Welchs/Gatorade 0.0000.000 [.000] Welchs/POWERade 0.0000.000 [.000] Welchs/Private Label 0.0000.000 [.063] Sunny Delight/Sunny Delight -0.0010.003 [.814] Sunny Delight/Capri Sun -0.0020.001 [.043] Sunny Delight/Kool-Aid 0.0030.002 [.041] Sunny Delight/Gatorade -0.0050.001 [.000] Sunny Delight/POWERade -0.0020.001 [.068] Sunny Delight/Private Label -0.0060.003 [.043] Minute Maid/Sunny Delight -0.0020.001 [.001] Minute Maid/Capri Sun -0.0010.000 [.003] Minute Maid/Kool-Aid -0.0010.001 [.157] Minute Maid/Gatorade -0.0030.001 [.000]

PAGE 115

115 Table B-7. Continued Category Brands EstimateStd. Error P-Value Fruit Juice/Fruit Drinks Minute Maid/POWERade -0.0030.001 [.000] Minute Maid/Private Label -0.0020.001 [.041] Tropicana/Sunny Delight -0.0010.001 [.304] Tropicana/Capri Sun -0.0010.000 [.005] Tropicana/Kool-Aid -0.0010.000 [.004] Tropicana/Gatorade -0.0010.000 [.001] Tropicana/POWERade 0.0000.000 [.269] Tropicana/Private Label -0.0010.001 [.473]

PAGE 116

116 Table B-8. Fruit drink feature elastici ties with respect to other beverages Category Brands EstimateStd. Error P-Value Fruit Drinks/Orange Juice Sunny Delight/Private Label -0.0110.003 [.000] Sunny Delight/Minute Maid -0.0050.002 [.015] Sunny Delight/Tropicana -0.0090.003 [.000] Capri Sun/Private Label -0.0040.002 [.057] Capri Sun/Minute Maid -0.0110.002 [.000] Capri Sun/Tropicana -0.0120.002 [.000] Kool-Aid/Private Label -0.0040.001 [.004] Kool-Aid/Minute Maid -0.0040.001 [.001] Kool-Aid/Tropicana -0.0060.001 [.000] Gatorade/Private Label -0.0100.003 [.000] Gatorade/Minute Maid -0.0060.002 [.002] Gatorade/Tropicana -0.0130.003 [.000] POWERade/Private Label -0.0070.002 [.006] POWERade/Minute Maid -0.0060.002 [.005] POWERade/Tropicana -0.0080.002 [.000] Private Label/Private Label 0.0010.002 [.438] Private Label/Minute Maid -0.0030.001 [.008] Private Label/Tropicana -0.0030.001 [.006]Fruit Drinks/Fruit Juice Sunny Delight/Private Label -0.0030.001 [.023] Sunny Delight/Welchs 0.0000.002 [.781] Sunny Delight/Sunny Delight -0.0010.003 [.814] Sunny Delight/Minute Maid -0.0050.002 [.001] Sunny Delight/Tropicana -0.0010.001 [.304] Capri Sun/Private Label 0.0000.000 [.108] Capri Sun/Welchs -0.0020.001 [.005] Capri Sun/Sunny Delight -0.0010.001 [.043] Capri Sun/Minute Maid -0.0020.001 [.003] Capri Sun/Tropicana -0.0010.000 [.005] Kool-Aid/Private Label 0.0000.000 [.814] Kool-Aid/Welchs 0.0010.001 [.151] Kool-Aid/Sunny Delight 0.0020.001 [.041] Kool-Aid/Minute Maid -0.0010.001 [.157] Kool-Aid/Tropicana -0.0020.001 [.004] Gatorade/Private Label -0.0010.000 [.000] Gatorade/Welchs -0.0020.001 [.000] Gatorade/Sunny Delight -0.0020.000 [.000] Gatorade/Minute Maid -0.0040.001 [.000] Gatorade/Tropicana -0.0010.000 [.001]

PAGE 117

117 Table B-8. Continued Category Brands EstimateStd. Error P-Value Fruit Drinks/Fruit Juice POWERade/Private Label 0.0000.000 [.932] POWERade/Welch's -0.0050.001 [.000] POWERade/Sunny Delight -0.0020.001 [.068] POWERade/Minute Maid -0.0060.002 [.000] POWERade/Tropicana -0.0010.000 [.269] Private Label/Private Label 0.0000.001 [.933] Private Label/Welchs -0.0030.002 [.063] Private Label/Sunny Delight -0.0040.002 [.043] Private Label/Minute Maid -0.0030.001 [.041] Private Label/Tropicana -0.0010.001 [.473]Fruit Drinks/Fruit Drinks Sunny Delight/Sunny Delight 0.0580.009 [.000] Sunny Delight/Capri Sun -0.0080.003 [.002] Sunny Delight/Kool-Aid -0.0110.003 [.000] Sunny Delight/Gatorade -0.0050.003 [.134] Sunny Delight/POWERade -0.0040.002 [.086] Sunny Delight/Private Label 0.0040.003 [.224] Capri Sun/Sunny Delight -0.0050.001 [.002] Capri Sun/Capri Sun 0.0600.008 [.000] Capri Sun/Kool-Aid -0.0010.001 [.300] Capri Sun/Gatorade -0.0100.003 [.000] Capri Sun/POWERade -0.0050.002 [.002] Capri Sun/Private Label -0.0050.001 [.000] Kool-Aid/Sunny Delight -0.0060.001 [.000] Kool-Aid/Capri Sun -0.0010.001 [.300] Kool-Aid/Kool-Aid 0.0320.005 [.000] Kool-Aid/Gatorade -0.0060.002 [.000] Kool-Aid/POWERade -0.0030.001 [.057] Kool-Aid/Private Label -0.0020.002 [.147] Gatorade/Sunny Delight -0.0020.001 [.134] Gatorade/Capri Sun -0.0070.002 [.000] Gatorade/Kool-Aid -0.0050.001 [.000] Gatorade/Gatorade 0.0610.010 [.000] Gatorade/POWERade -0.0050.001 [.000] Gatorade/Private Label -0.0040.001 [.000]

PAGE 118

118 Table B-8. Continued Category Brands EstimateStd. Error P-Value Fruit Drinks/Fruit Drinks POWERade/Sunny Delight -0.0030.002 [.086] POWERade/Capri Sun -0.0070.002 [.002] POWERade/Kool-Aid -0.0040.002 [.057] POWERade/Gatorade -0.0090.002 [.000] POWERade/POWERade 0.0580.009 [.000] POWERade/Private Label -0.0010.002 [.503] Private Label/Sunny Delight 0.0030.002 [.224] Private Label/Capri Sun -0.0060.001 [.000] Private Label/Kool-Aid -0.0030.002 [.147] Private Label /Gatorade -0.0060.001 [.000] Private Label/POWERade -0.0010.002 [.503] Private Label/Private Label 0.0230.006 [.000]

PAGE 119

119 Table B-9. Orange juice featur e and display elasticities with respect to other beverages Category Brands EstimateStd. Error P-Value Orange Juice/Orange Juice Private Label/Private Label 0.02090.0017 [.000] Private Label/Minute Maid -0.00490.0005 [.000] Private Label/Tropicana -0.00530.0006 [.000] Minute Maid/Private Label -0.00630.0007 [.000] Minute Maid/Minute Maid 0.02990.0021 [.000] Minute Maid/Tropicana -0.00820.0008 [.000] Tropicana/Private Label -0.00720.0008 [.000] Tropicana/Minute Maid -0.00870.0008 [.000] Tropicana/Tropicana 0.03830.0027 [.000]Orange Juice/Fruit Juice Private Label/Private Label 0.00020.0001 [.088] Private Label/Welchs -0.00080.0002 [.000] Private Label/Sunny Delight -0.00070.0002 [.002] Private Label/Minute Maid -0.00120.0002 [.000] Private Label/Tropicana -0.00020.0001 [.059] Minute Maid/Private Label -0.00030.0001 [.000] Minute Maid/Welchs -0.00040.0002 [.020] Minute Maid/Sunny Delight -0.00090.0002 [.000] Minute Maid/Minute Maid -0.00210.0003 [.000] Minute Maid/Tropicana -0.00040.0001 [.000] Tropicana/Private Label -0.00040.0001 [.000] Tropicana/Welchs -0.00120.0002 [.000] Tropicana/Sunny Delight -0.00120.0002 [.000] Tropicana/Minute Maid -0.00250.0003 [.000] Tropicana/Tropicana 0.00100.0001 [.000]

PAGE 120

120 Table B-9. Continued Category Brands EstimateStd. Error P-Value Orange Juice/ Fruit Drinks Private/Sunny Delight -0.00150.0004 [.000] Private/Capri Sun -0.00100.0005 [.048] Private/Kool-Aid -0.00110.0004 [.002] Private/Gatorade -0.00350.0007 [.000] Private/POWERade -0.00130.0005 [.004] Private/Private 0.00030.0004 [.437] Minute Maid/Sunny Delight -0.00100.0004 [.009] Minute Maid/Capri Sun -0.00360.0006 [.000] Minute Maid/Kool-Aid -0.00160.0004 [.000] Minute Maid/Gatorade -0.00260.0008 [.001] Minute Maid/POWERade -0.00150.0005 [.003] Minute Maid/Private -0.00090.0003 [.005] Tropicana/Sunny Delight -0.00190.0004 [.000] Tropicana/Capri Sun -0.00430.0007 [.000] Tropicana/Kool-Aid -0.00240.0004 [.000] Tropicana/Gatorade -0.00610.0011 [.000] Tropicana/POWERade -0.00230.0005 [.000] Tropicana/Private -0.00100.0003 [.003]

PAGE 121

121 Table B-10. Fruit juice feature and display elas ticities with respect to other beverages Category Brands EstimateStd. Error P-Value Fruit Juice/Orange Juice Private/Private 0.00000.0000 [.088] Private/Minute Maid 0.00000.0000 [.000] Private/Tropicana 0.00000.0000 [.000] Welchs/Private -0.00030.0001 [.000] Welchs/Minute Maid -0.00010.0001 [.020] Welchs/Tropicana -0.00040.0001 [.000] Sunny Delight/Private -0.00470.0015 [.002] Sunny Delight/Minute Maid -0.00490.0010 [.000] Sunny Delight/Tropicana -0.00610.0011 [.000] Minute Maid/Private -0.00160.0003 [.000] Minute Maid/Minute Maid -0.00230.0003 [.000] Minute Maid/Tropicana -0.00250.0003 [.000]Fruit Juice/Fruit Juice Private Label/Private Label 0.00010.0000 [.000] Private Label/Welchs 0.00000.0000 [.004] Private Label/Sunny Delight 0.00000.0000 [.060] Private Label/Minute Maid 0.00000.0000 [.259] Private Label/Tropicana 0.00000.0000 [.737] Welchs/Private Label -0.00010.0000 [.004] Welchs/Welchs 0.00270.0002 [.000] Welchs/Sunny Delight -0.00010.0001 [.099] Welchs/Minute Maid -0.00040.0001 [.000] Welchs/Tropicana -0.00010.0000 [.077] Sunny Delight/Private Label 0.00200.0011 [.060] Sunny Delight/Welchs -0.00230.0014 [.099] Sunny Delight/Sunny Delight 0.02830.0036 [.000] Sunny Delight/Minute Maid 0.00060.0012 [.638] Sunny Delight/Tropicana 0.00030.0012 [.835] Minute Maid/Private Label 0.00010.0001 [.259] Minute Maid/Welchs -0.00150.0003 [.000] Minute Maid/Sunny Delight 0.00010.0002 [.638] Minute Maid/Minute Maid 0.01490.0012 [.000] Minute Maid/Tropicana -0.00030.0001 [.034]

PAGE 122

122 Table B-10. Continued Category Brands EstimateStd. Error P-Value Fruit Juice/Fruit Drinks Private Label/Sunny Delight 0.00000.0000 [.018] Private Label/Capri Sun 0.00000.0000 [.101] Private Label/Kool-Aid 0.00000.0000 [.813] Private Label/Gatorade 0.00000.0000 [.000] Private Label/POWERade 0.00000.0000 [.932] Private Label/Private Label 0.00000.0000 [.933] Welchs/Sunny Delight 0.00000.0001 [.780] Welchs/Capri Sun -0.00020.0001 [.003] Welchs/Kool-Aid 0.00020.0001 [.148] Welchs/Gatorade -0.00040.0001 [.000] Welchs/POWERade -0.00040.0001 [.000] Welchs/Private Label -0.00030.0001 [.059] Sunny Delight/Sunny Delight -0.00080.0032 [.814] Sunny Delight/Capri Sun -0.00210.0010 [.035] Sunny Delight/Kool-Aid 0.00340.0016 [.033] Sunny Delight/Gatorade -0.00510.0010 [.000] Sunny Delight/POWERade -0.00230.0012 [.061] Sunny Delight/Private Label -0.00630.0030 [.035] Minute Maid/Sunny Delight -0.00110.0003 [.000] Minute Maid/Capri Sun -0.00070.0002 [.002] Minute Maid/Kool-Aid -0.00060.0004 [.153] Minute Maid/Gatorade -0.00190.0003 [.000] Minute Maid/POWERade -0.00170.0004 [.000] Minute Maid/Private Label -0.00100.0005 [.037]

PAGE 123

123 Table B-11. Fruit drinks featur e and display elasticities with respect to other beverages Category Brands EstimateStd. Error P-Value Fruit Drinks/Orange Juice Sunny Delight/Private Label -0.00910.0022 [.000] Sunny Delight/Minute Maid -0.00450.0017 [.009] Sunny Delight/Tropicana -0.00810.0019 [.000] Capri Sun/Private Label -0.00320.0016 [.048] Capri Sun/Minute Maid -0.00900.0015 [.000] Capri Sun/Tropicana -0.01040.0017 [.000] Kool-Aid/Private Label -0.00360.0012 [.002] Kool-Aid/Minute Maid -0.00400.0010 [.000] Kool-Aid/Tropicana -0.00560.0010 [.000] Gatorade/Private Label -0.00980.0021 [.000] Gatorade/Minute Maid -0.00560.0017 [.001] Gatorade/Tropicana -0.01250.0023 [.000] POWERade/Private Label -0.00300.0010 [.004] POWERade/Minute Maid -0.00260.0009 [.003] POWERade/Tropicana -0.00380.0009 [.000] Private Label/Private Label 0.00030.0004 [.437] Private Label/Minute Maid -0.00070.0002 [.005] Private Label/Tropicana -0.00070.0002 [.003]Fruit Drinks/Fruit Juice Sunny Delight/Private Label -0.00230.0010 [.018] Sunny Delight/Welchs 0.00040.0013 [.780] Sunny Delight/Sunny Delight -0.00060.0026 [.814] Sunny Delight/Minute Maid -0.00470.0013 [.000] Sunny Delight/Tropicana -0.00120.0011 [.302] Capri Sun/Private Label -0.00030.0002 [.101] Capri Sun/Welchs -0.00140.0005 [.003] Capri Sun/Sunny Delight -0.00100.0005 [.035] Capri Sun/Minute Maid -0.00180.0006 [.002] Capri Sun/Tropicana -0.00070.0002 [.003] Kool-Aid/Private Label -0.00010.0003 [.813] Kool-Aid/Welchs 0.00130.0009 [.148] Kool-Aid/Sunny Delight 0.00160.0007 [.033] Kool-Aid/Minute Maid -0.00140.0010 [.153] Kool-Aid/Tropicana -0.00140.0004 [.002] Gatorade/Private Label -0.00050.0001 [.000] Gatorade/Welchs -0.00240.0005 [.000] Gatorade/Sunny Delight -0.00200.0004 [.000] Gatorade/Minute Maid -0.00380.0005 [.000] Gatorade/Tropicana -0.00080.0002 [.000]

PAGE 124

124 Table 8-11. Continued Category Brands EstimateStd. Error P-Value Fruit Drinks/Fruit Juice POWERade/Private Label 0.00000.0002 [.932] POWERade/Welch's -0.00230.0005 [.000] POWERade/Sunny Delight -0.00070.0004 [.061] POWERade/Minute Maid -0.00280.0006 [.000] POWERade/Tropicana -0.00020.0002 [.265] Private Label/Private Label 0.00000.0002 [.933] Private Label/Welchs -0.00070.0003 [.059] Private Label/Sunny Delight -0.00080.0004 [.035] Private Label/Minute Maid -0.00070.0003 [.037] Private Label/Tropicana -0.00020.0002 [.472]Fruit Drinks/Fruit Drinks Sunny Delight/Sunny Delight 0.04970.0051 [.000] Sunny Delight/Capri Sun -0.00680.0020 [.001] Sunny Delight/Kool-Aid -0.00920.0019 [.000] Sunny Delight/Gatorade -0.00390.0025 [.122] Sunny Delight/POWERade -0.00330.0018 [.078] Sunny Delight/Private Label 0.00350.0029 [.216] Capri Sun/Sunny Delight -0.00380.0011 [.001] Capri Sun/Capri Sun 0.05030.0038 [.000] Capri Sun/Kool-Aid -0.00120.0011 [.286] Capri Sun/Gatorade -0.00850.0023 [.000] Capri Sun/POWERade -0.00440.0013 [.001] Capri Sun/Private Label -0.00460.0010 [.000] Kool-Aid/Sunny Delight -0.00510.0010 [.000] Kool-Aid/Capri Sun -0.00120.0011 [.286] Kool-Aid/Kool-Aid 0.02940.0030 [.000] Kool-Aid/Gatorade -0.00520.0013 [.000] Kool-Aid/POWERade -0.00240.0012 [.053] Kool-Aid/Private Label -0.00230.0015 [.141] Gatorade/Sunny Delight -0.00190.0012 [.122] Gatorade/Capri Sun -0.00730.0020 [.000] Gatorade/Kool-Aid -0.00450.0011 [.000] Gatorade/Gatorade 0.06010.0067 [.000] Gatorade/POWERade -0.00490.0012 [.000] Gatorade/Private Label -0.00390.0007 [.000] POWERade/Sunny Delight -0.00130.0007 [.078] POWERade/Capri Sun -0.00310.0009 [.001] POWERade/Kool-Aid -0.00170.0009 [.053]

PAGE 125

125 Table B-11. Continued Category Brands EstimateStd. Error P-Value Fruit Drinks/Fruit Drinks POWERade/Gatorade -0.00400.0010 [.000] POWERade/POWERade 0.02620.0025 [.000] POWERade/Private Label -0.00050.0008 [.500] Private Label/Sunny Delight 0.00060.0005 [.216] Private Label/Capri Sun -0.00140.0003 [.000] Private Label/Kool-Aid -0.00070.0005 [.141] Private Label /Gatorade -0.00130.0003 [.000] Private Label/POWERade -0.00020.0003 [.500] Private Label/Private Label 0.00540.0012 [.000]

PAGE 126

126 APPENDIX C PARAMETER ESTIMATES AND PROMOTIONAL ELASTICITIES FOR RETAILER Z Table C-1. Marginal propensity to consume estimates Category Brand Estimate Std. ErrorP-value Orange Juice Florida's Natural 0.1180.038[.002] Minute Maid 0.0310.025[.223] Tropicana 0.3770.049[.000] Fruit Juice Minute Maid 0.0230.007[.001] Newman's Own 0.0260.005[.000] Turkey Hill 0.0090.002[.000] Vita J 0.0020.001[.002] Welchs 0.0060.004[.103] Tropicana 0.0250.009[.003] Fruit Drinks Capri Sun 0.0980.017[.000] Gatorade 0.1980.041[.000] Minute Maid 0.0240.005[.000] POWERade 0.0490.010[.000] Snapple 0.0140.009[.120]

PAGE 127

127 Table C-2. Promotional and Sluts ky coefficients for Retailer Z Brands Estimate Std. Error P-value Displays 0.0030.000 [.000] Features 0.0000.000 [.191] Displays and Features 0.0060.000 [.000] RHO 0.3110.035 [.000] Florida's Natural (OJ)/Florida's Natural (OJ) -0.2800.014 [.000] Florida's Natural (OJ)/Minute Maid (OJ) 0.0500.007 [.000] Florida's Natural (OJ)/Tr opicana (OJ) 0.1120.010 [.000] Florida's Natural (OJ)/Minute Maid (FJ) -0.0020.004 [.616] Florida's Natural (OJ)/Newmans Own (FJ) 0.0150.003 [.000] Florida's Natural (OJ)/Turkey Hill (FJ) 0.0030.001 [.016] Florida's Natural (OJ)/V ita J (FJ) 0.0010.001 [.033] Florida's Natural (OJ)/Welch's (FJ) 0.0050.002 [.032] Florida's Natural (OJ)/Tr opicana (FJ) 0.0090.003 [.002] Florida's Natural (OJ)/Capri Sun (FD) 0.0100.005 [.046] Florida's Natural (OJ)/Gat orade (FD) 0.0380.010 [.000] Florida's Natural (OJ)/Minute Maid (FD) 0.0160.005 [.002] Florida's Natural (OJ)/POWERade (FD) 0.0170.003 [.000] Florida's Natural (OJ)/Snapple (FD) 0.0050.004 [.232] Minute Maid (OJ)/Minute Maid (OJ) -0.1750.012 [.000] Minute Maid (OJ)/Tropicana (OJ) 0.0700.008 [.000] Minute Maid (OJ)/Minute Maid (FJ) 0.0080.003 [.018] Minute Maid (OJ)/Newman s Own (FJ) 0.0080.002 [.001] Minute Maid (OJ)/Turkey Hill (FJ) 0.0010.001 [.174] Minute Maid (OJ)/Vita J (FJ) 0.0000.000 [.313] Minute Maid (OJ)/Welch's (FJ) 0.0020.002 [.186] Minute Maid (OJ)/Tropicana (FJ) 0.0070.004 [.064] Minute Maid (OJ)/Capri Sun (FD) 0.0060.006 [.330] Minute Maid (OJ)/Gatorade (FD) 0.0150.010 [.118] Minute Maid(OJ)/Minute Maid (FD) -0.0020.003 [.492] Minute Maid (OJ)/POWERade (FD) 0.0160.004 [.000] Minute Maid (OJ)/Snapple (FD) -0.0060.004 [.167] Tropicana (OJ)/Tropicana (OJ) -0.3520.019 [.000] Tropicana (OJ)/Minute Maid (FJ) 0.0100.003 [.000] Tropicana (OJ)/Newmans Own (FJ) 0.0140.002 [.000] Tropicana (OJ)/Turkey Hill (FJ) 0.0050.001 [.000] Tropicana (OJ)/Vita J (FJ) 0.0010.000 [.000]

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128 Table C-2. Continued Brands Estimate Std. Error P-value Tropicana (OJ)/Welch's (FJ) 0.0080.001 [.000] Tropicana (OJ)/Tropicana (FJ) 0.0140.003 [.000] Tropicana (OJ)/Capri Sun (FD) 0.0300.006 [.000] Tropicana (OJ)/Gatorade (FD) 0.0610.011 [.000] Tropicana (OJ)/Minute Maid (FD) 0.0030.002 [.176] Tropicana (OJ)/POWERade (FD) 0.0250.004 [.000] Tropicana (OJ)/Snapple (FD) 0.0000.003 [.971] Minute Maid (FJ)/Minute Maid (FJ) -0.0650.005 [.000] Minute Maid (FJ)/Newmans Own (FJ) 0.0070.003 [.022] Minute Maid (FJ)/Turkey Hill (FJ) 0.0010.001 [.217] Minute Maid (FJ)/Vita J (FJ) 0.0010.000 [.145] Minute Maid (FJ)/Welch's (FJ) 0.0000.002 [.996] Minute Maid (FJ)/Tropicana (FJ) 0.0110.002 [.000] Minute Maid (FJ)/Capri Sun (FD) 0.0010.002 [.624] Minute Maid (FJ)/Gatorade (FD) 0.0040.003 [.128] Minute Maid (FJ)/Minute Maid (FD) 0.0150.003 [.000] Minute Maid (FJ)/POWERade (FD) 0.0000.003 [.962] Minute Maid (FJ)/Snapple (FD) 0.0080.003 [.012] Newmans Own (FJ)/Newmans Own (FJ) -0.0590.005 [.000] Newmans Own (FJ)/Turkey Hill (FJ) 0.0000.001 [.747] Newmans Own (FJ)/Vita J (FJ) 0.0000.001 [.519] Newmans Own (FJ)/Welch's (FJ) 0.0080.002 [.000] Newmans Own (FJ)/Tropicana (FJ) 0.0020.002 [.186] Newmans Own (FJ)/Capri Sun (FD) 0.0050.002 [.001] Newmans Own (FJ)/Gatorade (FD) 0.0070.002 [.000] Newmans Own (FJ)/Minute Maid (FD) -0.0070.004 [.066] Newmans Own (FJ)/POWERade (FD) -0.0010.003 [.627] Newmans Own (FJ)/Snapple (FD) 0.0010.002 [.581] Turkey Hill (FJ)/Turkey Hill (FJ) -0.0210.001 [.000] Turkey Hill (FJ)/Vita J (FJ) 0.0000.000 [.165] Turkey Hill (FJ)/Welch's (FJ) 0.0040.001 [.000] Turkey Hill (FJ)/Tropicana (FJ) 0.0020.001 [.008] Turkey Hill (FJ)/Capri Sun (FD) 0.0020.001 [.000] Turkey Hill (FJ)/Gatorade (FD) 0.0020.001 [.027] Turkey Hill (FJ)/Minute Maid (FD) -0.0020.002 [.309] Turkey Hill (FJ)/POWERade (FD) 0.0000.001 [.896] Turkey Hill (FJ)/Snapple (FD) 0.0010.001 [.343]

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129 Table C-2 Continued Brands Estimate Std. Error P-value Vita J (FJ)/Vita J (FJ) -0.0020.000[.000] Vita J (FJ)/Welchs (FJ) -0.0010.000[.067] Vita J(FJ)/Tropicana (FJ) 0.0000.000[.048] Vita J (FJ)/Capri Sun (FD) 0.0000.000[.174] Vita J (FJ)/Gatorade (FD) 0.0000.000[.490] Vita J (FJ)/Minute Maid (FD) -0.0010.001[.107] Vita J (FJ)/POWERade (FD) 0.0000.000[.619] Vita J (FJ)/Snapple (FD) 0.0000.000[.528] Welchs (FJ)/Welchs (FJ) -0.0440.002[.000] Welchs (FJ)/Tropicana (FJ) 0.0040.001[.000] Welchs (FJ)/Capri Sun (FD) 0.0020.001[.163] Welchs (FJ)/Gatorade (FD) 0.0020.002[.226] Welchs (FJ)/Minute Maid (FD) 0.0000.002[.981] Welchs (FJ)/POWERade (FD) 0.0070.002[.000] Welchs (FJ)/Snapple (FD) 0.0040.002[.014] Tropicana (FJ)/Tropicana (FJ) -0.0680.003[.000] Tropicana (FJ)/Capri Sun (FD) 0.0090.003[.001] Tropicana (FJ)/Gatorade (FD) -0.0050.004[.149] Tropicana (FJ)/Minute Maid (FD) 0.0060.002[.001] Tropicana (FJ)/POWERade (FD) 0.0020.003[.520] Tropicana (FJ)/Snapple (FD) 0.0070.003[.015] Capri Sun (FD)/Capri Sun (FD) -0.1090.007[.000] Capri Sun (FD)/Gatorade (FD) 0.0360.007[.000] Capri Sun (FD)/Minute Maid (FD) 0.0060.002[.001] Capri Sun (FD)/(FJ)/POWERade (FD) 0.0050.003[.109] Capri Sun (FD)/(FJ)/Snapple (FD) -0.0030.003[.255] Gatorade (FD)/Gatorade (FD) -0.1800.017[.000] Gatorade (FD)/Minute Maid (FD) 0.0050.002[.019] Gatorade (FD)/(FJ)/POWERa de (FD) 0.0110.004[.003] Gatorade (FD)/(FJ)/Sna pple (FD) 0.0030.004[.484] Minute Maid (FD)/Minute Maid (FD) -0.0270.006[.000] Minute Maid (FD)/POWERade (FD) -0.0010.003[.699] Gatorade (FD)/Snapple (FD) -0.0120.003[.000] Minute Maid (FD)/POWERade (FD) -0.0790.006[.000] Gatorade (FD)/Snapple (FD) -0.0010.005[.834] Snapple (FD)/Snapple (FD) -0.0170.010[.088]

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130 Table C-3. Orange juice display elasticities with respect to other beverages Category Brands Estimate Std. Error P-value Orange Juice/Orange Juice Floridas Natural 0.06700.8384 [.000] Floridas Natural\Minute Maid -0.01190.0023 [.000] Floridas Natural\Tropicana -0.02690.0038 [.000] Minute Maid\Floridas Natural -0.00560.0011 [.000] Minute Maid\Minute Maid 0.01960.0027 [.000] Minute Maid\Tropicana -0.00780.0012 [.000] Tropicana\Floridas Natural -0.01220.0017 [.000] Tropicana\Minute Maid -0.00760.0012 [.000] Tropicana\Tropicana 0.03820.0047 [.000] Orange Juice/Fruit Juice Florida's Natural\Minute Maid 0.00040.0009 [.617] Florida's Natural\Newman's Own -0.00350.0009 [.000] Florida's Natural\Turkey Hill -0.00080.0003 [.019] Florida's Natural\Vita J -0.00030.0002 [.039] Florida's Natural\Welchs -0.00120.0006 [.038] Florida's Natural\Tropicana -0.00230.0008 [.005] Minute Maid\Minute Maid -0.00090.0004 [.024] Minute Maid\Newman's Own -0.00090.0003 [.002] Minute Maid\Turkey Hill -0.00010.0001 [.174] Minute Maid\Vita J 0.00000.0000 [.319] Minute Maid\Welchs -0.00030.0002 [.194] Minute Maid\Tropicana -0.00080.0004 [.070] Tropicana\Minute Maid -0.00110.0003 [.000] Tropicana\Newman's Own -0.00150.0003 [.000] Tropicana\Turkey Hill -0.00050.0001 [.000] Tropicana\Vita J -0.00010.0000 [.001] Tropicana\Welchs -0.00090.0002 [.000] Tropicana\Tropicana -0.00150.0004 [.000]

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131 Table C-3. Continued Category Brands Estimate Std. Error P-value Orange Juice/Fruit Drink Florida's Natural\Capri Sun -0.00240.0012 [.050] Florida's Natural\Gatorade -0.00910.0027 [.001] Florida's Natural\Minute Maid -0.00390.0013 [.003] Florida's Natural\POWERade -0.00400.0009 [.000] Florida's Natural\Snapple -0.00110.0009 [.236] Minute Maid\Capri Sun -0.00060.0007 [.340] Minute Maid\Gatorade -0.00170.0011 [.123] Minute Maid\Minute Maid 0.00020.0003 [.494] Minute Maid\POWERade -0.00180.0005 [.001] Minute Maid\Snapple 0.00070.0005 [.175] Tropicana\Capri Sun -0.00320.0007 [.000] Tropicana\Gatorade -0.00660.0015 [.000] Tropicana\Minute Maid -0.00030.0003 [.179] Tropicana\POWERade -0.00270.0005 [.000] Tropicana\Snapple 0.00000.0004 [.971]

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132 Table C-4. Fruit juice display elastic ities with respect to other beverages Category Brands Estimate Std. Error P-value Fruit Juice/Orange Juice Minute Maid\Florida's Natural 0.00120.0024 [.617] Minute Maid\Minute Maid -0.00540.0024 [.024] Minute Maid\Tropicana -0.00680.0019 [.000] Turkey Hill\Florida's Natural -0.00470.0020 [.019] Turkey Hill\Minute Maid -0.00180.0013 [.174] Turkey Hill\Tropicana -0.00640.0013 [.000] Vita J\Florida's Natural -0.00190.0009 [.039] Vita J\Minute Maid -0.00050.0005 [.319] Vita J\Tropicana -0.00170.0005 [.001] Welchs\Florida's Natural -0.00140.0007 [.038] Welchs\Minute Maid -0.00070.0005 [.194] Welchs\Tropicana -0.00240.0005 [.000] Tropicana\Florida's Natural -0.00580.0020 [.005] Tropicana\Minute Maid -0.00430.0024 [.070] Tropicana\Tropicana -0.00830.0021 [.000] Fruit Juice/Fruit Juice Minute Maid\Minute Maid 0.04380.0061 [.000] Minute Maid\Newmans Own -0.00460.0021 [.028] Minute Maid\Turkey Hill -0.00090.0008 [.228] Minute Maid\Vita J -0.00050.0003 [.151] Minute Maid\Welchs 0.00000.0013 [.996] Minute Maid\Tropicana -0.00730.0017 [.000] Turkey Hill\Minute Maid -0.00190.0016 [.228] Turkey Hill\Newmans Own -0.00060.0019 [.747] Welchs\Minute Maid 0.02870.0036 [.000] Welchs\Newmans Own -0.00070.0005 [.172] Welchs\Minute Maid -0.00590.0015 [.000] Welchs\Newmans Own -0.00230.0009 [.011] Vita J\Minute Maid -0.00100.0007 [.151] Vita J\Newmans Own 0.00060.0009 [.519] Vita J\Turkey Hill -0.00070.0005 [.172] Vita J\Vita J 0.00340.0007 [.000] Vita J\Welchs 0.00100.0006 [.074] Vita J\Tropicana -0.00070.0004 [.054] Welchs\Minute Maid 0.00000.0006 [.996] Welchs\Newmans Own -0.00240.0007 [.001] Welch's\Turkey Hill -0.00130.0003 [.000] Welch's\Vita J 0.00020.0001 [.074]

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133 Table C-4. Continued Category Brands Estimate Std. Error P-value Fruit Juice/Fruit Juice Welch's\Welchs 0.01310.0018 [.000] Welch's\Tropicana -0.00110.0003 [.001] Tropicana\Minute Maid -0.00660.0016 [.000] Tropicana\Newmans Own -0.00130.0010 [.196] Tropicana\Turkey Hill -0.00100.0004 [.011] Tropicana\Vita J -0.00030.0001 [.054] Tropicana\Welchs -0.00220.0007 [.001] Tropicana\Tropicana 0.04150.0055 [.000] Fruit Juice/Fruit Drinks Minute Maid\Capri Sun -0.00070.0015 [.624] Minute Maid\Gatorade -0.00300.0020 [.130] Minute Maid\Minute Maid -0.01030.0025 [.000] Minute Maid\POWERade -0.00010.0024 [.962] Minute Maid\Snapple -0.00540.0023 [.017] Turkey Hill\Capri Sun -0.00320.0009 [.001] Turkey Hill\Gatorade -0.00250.0012 [.033] Turkey Hill\Minute Maid 0.00220.0022 [.310] Turkey Hill\POWERade 0.00020.0013 [.896] Turkey Hill\Snapple -0.00110.0012 [.345] Vita J\Capri Sun -0.00050.0004 [.181] Vita J\Gatorade -0.00030.0005 [.493] Vita J\Minute Maid 0.00170.0011 [.112] Vita J\POWERade 0.00030.0006 [.620] Vita J\Snapple 0.00030.0005 [.531] Welchs\Capri Sun -0.00040.0003 [.170] Welchs\Gatorade -0.00060.0005 [.231] Welchs\Minute Maid 0.00000.0007 [.981] Welchs\POWERade -0.00190.0005 [.000] Welchs\Snapple -0.00110.0005 [.017] Tropicana\Capri Sun -0.00570.0018 [.002] Tropicana\Gatorade 0.00320.0022 [.154] Tropicana\Minute Maid -0.00370.0012 [.002] Tropicana\POWERade -0.00120.0018 [.519] Tropicana\Snapple -0.00420.0018 [.020]

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134 Table C-5. Fruit drink display elastic ities with respect to other beverages Category Brands Estimate Std. Error P-value Fruit Drinks/Orange Juice Capri Sun\Florida's Natural -0.00490.0025 [.050] Capri Sun\Minute Maid -0.00280.0030 [.340] Capri Sun\Tropicana -0.01450.0032 [.000] Gatorade\Florida's Natural -0.01920.0057 [.001] Gatorade\Minute Maid -0.00780.0050 [.123] Gatorade\Tropicana -0.03070.0068 [.000] Minute Maid\Florida's Natural -0.00310.0010 [.003] Minute Maid\Minute Maid 0.00030.0005 [.494] Minute Maid\Tropicana -0.00060.0004 [.179] POWERade\Florida's Natural -0.01710.0039 [.000] POWERade\Minute Maid -0.01620.0048 [.001] POWERade\Tropicana -0.02570.0046 [.000] Snapple\Florida's Natural -0.00300.0026 [.236] Snapple\Minute Maid 0.00400.0029 [.175] Snapple\Tropicana 0.00010.0022 [.971] Fruit Drinks/Fruit Juices Capri Sun\Minute Maid -0.00050.0011 [.624] Capri Sun\Newman's Own -0.00260.0009 [.002] Capri Sun\Turkey Hill -0.00110.0003 [.001] Capri Sun\Vita J -0.00020.0001 [.181] Capri Sun\Welchs -0.00070.0005 [.170] Capri Sun\Tropicana -0.00450.0015 [.002] Gatorade\Minute Maid -0.00220.0015 [.130] Gatorade\Newman's Own -0.00370.0011 [.001] Gatorade\Turkey Hill -0.00090.0004 [.033] Gatorade\Vita J -0.00010.0002 [.493] Gatorade\Welchs -0.00100.0008 [.231] Gatorade\Tropicana 0.00260.0018 [.154] Minute Maid\Minute Maid -0.00290.0007 [.000] Minute Maid\Newman's Own 0.00130.0007 [.070] Minute Maid\Turkey Hill 0.00030.0003 [.310] Minute Maid\Vita J 0.00020.0001 [.112] Minute Maid\Welchs 0.00000.0005 [.981] Minute Maid\Tropicana -0.00120.0004 [.002] POWERade\Minute Maid -0.00020.0036 [.962] POWERade\Newman's Own 0.00130.0026 [.626] POWERade\Turkey Hill 0.00010.0009 [.896] POWERade\Vita J 0.00020.0004 [.620]

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135 Table C-5. Continued Category Brands Estimate Std. Error P-value POWERade\Welchs -0.00680.0018 [.000] POWERade\Tropicana -0.00200.0031 [.519] Snapple\Minute Maid -0.00530.0022 [.017] Snapple\Newman's Own -0.00090.0016 [.582] Snapple\Turkey Hill -0.00050.0006 [.345] Snapple\Vita J 0.00020.0002 [.531] Snapple\Welch's -0.00250.0010 [.017] Snapple\Tropicana -0.00460.0020 [.020] Fruit Drinks/Fruit Drinks Capri Sun\Capri Sun 0.05310.0073 [.000] Capri Sun\Gatorade -0.01760.0038 [.000] Capri Sun\Minute Maid -0.00280.0009 [.002] Capri Sun\POWERade -0.00250.0016 [.116] Capri Sun\Snapple 0.00170.0015 [.258] Gatorade\Capri Sun -0.01820.0039 [.000] Gatorade\Gatorade 0.09080.0134 [.000] Gatorade\Minute Maid -0.00260.0012 [.022] Gatorade\POWERade -0.00560.0020 [.004] Gatorade\Snapple -0.00140.0021 [.487] Minute Maid\Capri Sun -0.00110.0004 [.002] Minute Maid\Gatorade -0.00100.0004 [.022] Minute Maid\Minute Maid 0.00520.0013 [.000] Minute Maid\POWERade 0.00020.0005 [.699] Minute Maid\Snapple 0.00220.0006 [.000] POWERade\Capri Sun -0.00520.0033 [.116] POWERade\Gatorade -0.01150.0040 [.004] POWERade\Minute Maid 0.00110.0027 [.699] POWERade\POWERade 0.08090.0115 [.000] POWERade\Snapple 0.00100.0046 [.833] Snapple\Capri Sun 0.00230.0020 [.258] Snapple\Gatorade -0.00190.0027 [.487] Snapple\Minute Maid 0.00790.0020 [.000] Snapple\POWERade 0.00060.0030 [.833] Snapple\Snapple 0.01100.0067 [.098]

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136 Table C-6. Orange juice feature elasticities with respect to other beverages Category Brands EstimateStd. Error P-value Orange Juice/Orange Juice Floridas Natural 0.00530.0041 [.191] Floridas Natural\Minute Maid -0.00100.0007 [.199] Floridas Natural\Tropicana -0.00210.0017 [.195] Minute Maid\Floridas Natural -0.00120.0010 [.199] Minute Maid\Minute Maid 0.00430.0033 [.192] Minute Maid\Tropicana -0.00170.0013 [.195] Tropicana\Floridas Natural -0.00100.0008 [.195] Tropicana\Minute Maid -0.00060.0005 [.195] Tropicana\Tropicana 0.00310.0024 [.192]Orange Juice/Fruit Juice Florida's Natural\Minute Maid 0.00000.0001 [.630] Florida's Natural\Newman's Own -0.00030.0002 [.209] Florida's Natural\Turkey Hill -0.00010.0001 [.242] Florida's Natural\Vita J 0.00000.0000 [.267] Florida's Natural\Welchs -0.00010.0001 [.259] Florida's Natural\Tropicana -0.00020.0001 [.226] Minute Maid\Minute Maid -0.00020.0002 [.258] Minute Maid\Newman's Own -0.00020.0002 [.216] Minute Maid\Turkey Hill 0.00000.0000 [.340] Minute Maid\Vita J 0.00000.0000 [.420] Minute Maid\Welchs -0.00010.0001 [.358] Minute Maid\Tropicana -0.00020.0002 [.286] Tropicana\Minute Maid -0.00010.0001 [.233] Tropicana\Newman's Own -0.00010.0001 [.199] Tropicana\Turkey Hill 0.00000.0000 [.202] Tropicana\Vita J 0.00000.0000 [.217] Tropicana\Welchs -0.00010.0001 [.198] Tropicana\Tropicana -0.00010.0001 [.207]

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137 Table C-6. Continued Category Brands Estimate Std. Error P-value Orange Juice/Fruit Drink Florida's Natural\Capri Sun -0.00020.0002 [.276] Florida's Natural\Gatorade -0.00070.0006 [.217] Florida's Natural\Minute Maid -0.00030.0003 [.214] Florida's Natural\POWERade -0.00030.0002 [.201] Florida's Natural\Snapple -0.00010.0001 [.371] Minute Maid\Capri Sun -0.00010.0002 [.430] Minute Maid\Gatorade -0.00040.0004 [.311] Minute Maid\Minute Maid 0.00000.0001 [.542] Minute Maid\POWERade -0.00040.0003 [.218] Minute Maid\Snapple 0.00010.0002 [.338] Tropicana\Capri Sun -0.00030.0002 [.206] Tropicana\Gatorade -0.00050.0004 [.203] Tropicana\Minute Maid 0.00000.0000 [.329] Tropicana\POWERade -0.00020.0002 [.200] Tropicana\Snapple 0.00000.0000 [.971]

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138 Table C-7. Fruit juice feature elasticit ies with respect to other beverages Category Brands Estimate Std. Error P-value Fruit Juice/Orange Juice Minute Maid\Florida's Natural 0.00010.0001 [.630] Minute Maid\Minute Maid -0.00030.0002 [.258] Minute Maid\Tropicana -0.00030.0003 [.233] Newman's Own\Florida's Natural 0.00000.0000 [1.00] Newman's Own\Minute Ma id 0.00000.0000 [1.00] Newman's Own\Tropicana 0.00000.0000 [1.00] Turkey Hill\Florida's Natural 0.00000.0000 [.242] Turkey Hill\Minute Maid 0.00000.0000 [.340] Turkey Hill\Tropicana -0.00010.0000 [.202] Vita J\Florida's Natural -0.00030.0002 [.267] Vita J\Minute Maid -0.00010.0001 [.420] Vita J\Tropicana -0.00020.0002 [.217] Welchs\Florida's Natural -0.00010.0001 [.259] Welchs\Minute Maid -0.00010.0001 [.358] Welchs\Tropicana -0.00020.0002 [.198] Tropicana\Florida's Natural -0.00010.0001 [.226] Tropicana\Minute Maid -0.00010.0001 [.286] Tropicana\Tropicana -0.00010.0001 [.207] Fruit Juice/Fruit Juice Minute Maid\Minute Maid 0.00210.0016 [.197] Minute Maid\Newmans Own -0.00020.0002 [.270] Minute Maid\Turkey Hill 0.00000.0000 [.366] Minute Maid\Vita J 0.00000.0000 [.333] Minute Maid\Welchs 0.00000.0001 [.996] Minute Maid\Tropicana -0.00030.0003 [.198] Newman's Own\Minute Ma id 0.00000.0000 [1.00] Newman's Own\Newmans Own 0.00000.0000 [1.00] Newman's Own\Turkey Hill 0.00000.0000 [1.00] Newman's Own\Vita J 0.00000.0000 [1.00] Newman's Own\Welchs 0.00000.0000 [1.00] Newman's Own\Tropicana 0.00000.0000 [1.00] Turkey Hill\Minute Maid 0.00000.0000 [.366] Turkey Hill\Newmans Own 0.00000.0000 [.753] Welchs\Minute Maid 0.00030.0002 [.192] Welchs\Newmans Own 0.00000.0000 [.331] Welchs\Minute Maid -0.00010.0000 [.212] Welchs\Newmans Own 0.00000.0000 [.245]

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139 Table C-7. Continued Category Brands Estimate Std. Error P-value Fruit Juice/Fruit Juice Vita J\Minute Maid -0.00010.0001 [.333] Vita J\Newmans Own 0.00010.0001 [.560] Vita J\Turkey Hill -0.00010.0001 [.331] Vita J\Vita J 0.00050.0004 [.191] Vita J\Welchs 0.00010.0001 [.286] Vita J\Tropicana -0.00010.0001 [.272] Welchs\Minute Maid 0.00000.0001 [.996] Welchs\Newmans Own -0.00020.0002 [.216] Welch's\Turkey Hill -0.00010.0001 [.212] Welch's\Vita J 0.00000.0000 [.286] Welch's\Welchs 0.00120.0009 [.191] Welch's\Tropicana -0.00010.0001 [.221] Tropicana\Minute Maid -0.00010.0001 [.198] Tropicana\Newmans Own 0.00000.0000 [.355] Tropicana\Turkey Hill 0.00000.0000 [.245] Tropicana\Vita J 0.00000.0000 [.272] Tropicana\Welchs 0.00000.0000 [.221] Tropicana\Tropicana 0.00070.0006 [.191] Fruit Juice/Fruit Drinks Minute Maid\Capri Sun 0.00000.0001 [.659] Minute Maid\Gatorade -0.00010.0002 [.362] Minute Maid\Minute Maid -0.00050.0004 [.201] Minute Maid\POWERade 0.00000.0001 [.962] Minute Maid\Snapple -0.00030.0002 [.228] Newman's Own\Capri Sun 0.00000.0000 [1.00] Newman's Own\Gatorade 0.00000.0000 [1.00] Newman's Own\Minute Ma id 0.00000.0000 [1.00] Newman's Own\POWERade 0.00000.0000 [1.00] Newman's Own\Snapple 0.00000.0000 [1.00] Turkey Hill\Capri Sun 0.00000.0000 [.217] Turkey Hill\Gatorade 0.00000.0000 [.261] Turkey Hill\Minute Maid 0.00000.0000 [.412] Turkey Hill\POWERade 0.00000.0000 [.896] Turkey Hill\Snapple 0.00000.0000 [.442] Vita J\Capri Sun -0.00010.0001 [.341] Vita J\Gatorade 0.00000.0001 [.538] Vita J\Minute Maid 0.00020.0002 [.314] Vita J\POWERade 0.00000.0001 [.644]

PAGE 140

140 Table C-7. Continued Category Brands Estimate Std. Error P-value Fruit Juice/Fruit Drinks Vita J\Snapple 0.00000.0001 [.566] Welchs\Capri Sun 0.00000.0000 [.337] Welchs\Gatorade -0.00010.0001 [.371] Welchs\Minute Maid 0.00000.0001 [.981] Welchs\POWERade -0.00020.0001 [.212] Welchs\Snapple -0.00010.0001 [.249] Tropicana\Capri Sun -0.00010.0001 [.219] Tropicana\Gatorade 0.00010.0001 [.338] Tropicana\Minute Maid -0.00010.0001 [.231] Tropicana\POWERade 0.00000.0000 [.566] Tropicana\Snapple -0.00010.0001 [.255]

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141 Table C-8. Fruit drink feature elastici ties with respect to other beverages Category Brands EstimateStd. Error P-value Fruit Juice/Orange Juice Minute Maid\Florida's Natural 0.00010.0001 [.630] Minute Maid\Minute Maid -0.00030.0002 [.258] Minute Maid\Tropicana -0.00030.0003 [.233] Turkey Hill\Florida's Natural 0.00000.0000 [.242] Turkey Hill\Minute Maid 0.00000.0000 [.340] Turkey Hill\Tropicana -0.00010.0000 [.202] Vita J\Florida's Natural -0.00030.0002 [.267] Vita J\Minute Maid -0.00010.0001 [.420] Vita J\Tropicana -0.00020.0002 [.217] Welchs\Florida's Natural -0.00010.0001 [.259] Welchs\Minute Maid -0.00010.0001 [.358] Welchs\Tropicana -0.00020.0002 [.198] Tropicana\Florida's Natural -0.00010.0001 [.226] Tropicana\Minute Maid -0.00010.0001 [.286] Tropicana\Tropicana -0.00010.0001 [.207] Fruit Juice/Fruit Juice Minute Maid\Minute Maid 0.00210.0016 [.197] Minute Maid\Newmans Own -0.00020.0002 [.270] Minute Maid\Turkey Hill 0.00000.0000 [.366] Minute Maid\Vita J 0.00000.0000 [.333] Minute Maid\Welchs 0.00000.0001 [.996] Minute Maid\Tropicana -0.00030.0003 [.198] Turkey Hill\Minute Maid 0.00000.0000 [.366] Turkey Hill\Newmans Own 0.00000.0000 [.753] Welchs\Minute Maid 0.00030.0002 [.192] Welchs\Newmans Own 0.00000.0000 [.331] Welchs\Minute Maid -0.00010.0000 [.212] Welchs\Newmans Own 0.00000.0000 [.245] Fruit Juice/Fruit Juice Vita J\Minute Maid -0.00010.0001 [.333] Vita J\Newmans Own 0.00010.0001 [.560] Vita J\Turkey Hill -0.00010.0001 [.331] Vita J\Vita J 0.00050.0004 [.191] Vita J\Welchs 0.00010.0001 [.286] Vita J\Tropicana -0.00010.0001 [.272] Welchs\Minute Maid 0.00000.0001 [.996] Welchs\Newmans Own -0.00020.0002 [.216] Welch's\Turkey Hill -0.00010.0001 [.212] Welch's\Vita J 0.00000.0000 [.286]

PAGE 142

142 Table C-8. Continued Category Brands EstimateStd. Error P-value Welch's\Welchs 0.00120.0009 [.191] Welch's\Tropicana -0.00010.0001 [.221] Tropicana\Minute Maid -0.00010.0001 [.198] Tropicana\Newmans Own 0.00000.0000 [.355] Tropicana\Turkey Hill 0.00000.0000 [.245] Tropicana\Vita J 0.00000.0000 [.272] Tropicana\Welchs 0.00000.0000 [.221] Tropicana\Tropicana 0.00070.0006 [.191] Fruit Juice/Fruit Drinks Minute Maid\Capri Sun 0.00000.0001 [.659] Minute Maid\Gatorade -0.00010.0002 [.362] Minute Maid\Minute Maid -0.00050.0004 [.201] Minute Maid\POWERade 0.00000.0001 [.962] Minute Maid\Snapple -0.00030.0002 [.228] Turkey Hill\Capri Sun 0.00000.0000 [.217] Turkey Hill\Gatorade 0.00000.0000 [.261] Turkey Hill\Minute Maid 0.00000.0000 [.412] Turkey Hill\POWERade 0.00000.0000 [.896] Turkey Hill\Snapple 0.00000.0000 [.442] Vita J\Capri Sun -0.00010.0001 [.341] Vita J\Gatorade 0.00000.0001 [.538] Vita J\Minute Maid 0.00020.0002 [.314] Vita J\POWERade 0.00000.0001 [.644] Fruit Juice/Fruit Drinks Vita J\Snapple 0.00000.0001 [.566] Welchs\Capri Sun 0.00000.0000 [.337] Welchs\Gatorade -0.00010.0001 [.371] Welchs\Minute Maid 0.00000.0001 [.981] Welchs\POWERade -0.00020.0001 [.212] Welchs\Snapple -0.00010.0001 [.249] Tropicana\Capri Sun -0.00010.0001 [.219] Tropicana\Gatorade 0.00010.0001 [.338] Tropicana\Minute Maid -0.00010.0001 [.231] Tropicana\POWERade 0.00000.0000 [.566] Tropicana\Snapple -0.00010.0001 [.255]

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143 Table C-9. Orange juice featur e and display elasticities with respect to other beverages Category Brands EstimateStd. Error P-value Orange Juice/Orange Juice Floridas Natural 0.23410.0146 [.000] Floridas Natural\Minute Maid -0.04170.0064 [.000] Floridas Natural\Tropicana -0.09410.0087 [.000] Minute Maid\Floridas Natural -0.03200.0049 [.000] Minute Maid\Minute Maid 0.11260.0089 [.000] Minute Maid\Tropicana -0.04470.0052 [.000] Tropicana\Floridas Natural -0.03860.0036 [.000] Tropicana\Minute Maid -0.02390.0028 [.000] Tropicana\Tropicana 0.12100.0075 [.000]Orange Juice/Fruit Juice Florida's Natural\Minute Maid 0.00150.0030 [.615] Florida's Natural\Newman's Own -0.01220.0029 [.000] Florida's Natural\Turkey Hill -0.00280.0012 [.016] Florida's Natural\Vita J -0.00110.0005 [.032] Florida's Natural\Welchs -0.00400.0019 [.033] Florida's Natural\Tropicana -0.00790.0026 [.003] Minute Maid\Minute Maid -0.00510.0021 [.018] Minute Maid\Newman's Own -0.00500.0015 [.001] Minute Maid\Turkey Hill -0.00080.0006 [.173] Minute Maid\Vita J -0.00020.0002 [.315] Minute Maid\Welchs -0.00150.0011 [.187] Minute Maid\Tropicana -0.00450.0025 [.065] Tropicana\Minute Maid -0.00340.0009 [.000] Tropicana\Newman's Own -0.00470.0008 [.000] Tropicana\Turkey Hill -0.00160.0003 [.000] Tropicana\Vita J -0.00040.0001 [.000] Tropicana\Welchs -0.00280.0005 [.000] Tropicana\Tropicana -0.00470.0011 [.000]

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144 Table C-9. Continued Category Brands EstimateStd. Error P-value Orange Juice/Fruit Drink Florida's Natural\Capri Sun -0.00840.0042 [.049] Florida's Natural\Gatorade -0.03190.0087 [.000] Florida's Natural\Minute Maid -0.01370.0043 [.001] Florida's Natural\POWERade -0.01390.0029 [.000] Florida's Natural\Snapple -0.00380.0032 [.232] Minute Maid\Capri Sun -0.00370.0038 [.332] Minute Maid\Gatorade -0.00990.0063 [.118] Minute Maid\Minute Maid 0.00110.0017 [.491] Minute Maid\POWERade -0.01010.0028 [.000] Minute Maid\Snapple 0.00380.0028 [.168] Tropicana\Capri Sun -0.01020.0018 [.000] Tropicana\Gatorade -0.02090.0041 [.000] Tropicana\Minute Maid -0.00110.0008 [.178] Tropicana\POWERade -0.00860.0013 [.000] Tropicana\Snapple 0.00000.0012 [.971]

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145 Table C-10. Fruit juice feature and display elasticities with respect to other beverages Category Brands EstimateStd. Error P-value Fruit Juice/Orange Juice Minute Maid\Florida's Natural 0.00110.0021 [.615] Minute Maid\Minute Maid -0.00480.0020 [.018] Minute Maid\Tropicana -0.00600.0016 [.000] Turkey Hill\Florida's Natural -0.00020.0001 [.016] Turkey Hill\Minute Maid -0.00010.0000 [.173] Turkey Hill\Tropicana -0.00020.0000 [.000] Vita J\Florida's Natural -0.00340.0016 [.032] Vita J\Minute Maid -0.00100.0010 [.315] Vita J\Tropicana -0.00300.0009 [.000] Welchs\Florida's Natural -0.00190.0009 [.033] Welchs\Minute Maid -0.00090.0007 [.187] Welchs\Tropicana -0.00330.0006 [.000] Tropicana\Florida's Natural -0.00230.0008 [.003] Tropicana\Minute Maid -0.00170.0009 [.065] Tropicana\Tropicana -0.00330.0007 [.000] Fruit Juice/Fruit Juice Minute Maid\Minute Maid 0.03890.0035 [.000] Minute Maid\Newmans Own -0.00410.0018 [.024] Minute Maid\Turkey Hill -0.00080.0007 [.222] Minute Maid\Vita J -0.00040.0003 [.145] Minute Maid\Welchs 0.00000.0011 [.996] Minute Maid\Tropicana -0.00650.0014 [.000] Turkey Hill\Minute Maid -0.00010.0001 [.222] Turkey Hill\Newmans Own 0.00000.0001 [.747] Welchs\Minute Maid 0.00110.0001 [.000] Welchs\Newmans Own 0.00000.0000 [.168] Welchs\Minute Maid -0.00020.0001 [.000] Welchs\Newmans Own -0.00180.0012 [.145] Fruit Juice/Fruit Juice Vita J\Minute Maid 0.00100.0016 [.519] Vita J\Newmans Own -0.00120.0009 [.168] Vita J\Turkey Hill 0.00600.0010 [.000] Vita J\Vita J 0.00190.0010 [.068] Vita J\Welchs -0.00120.0006 [.049] Vita J\Tropicana 0.00000.0008 [.996] Welchs\Minute Maid -0.00330.0009 [.000] Welchs\Newmans Own -0.00170.0004 [.000] Welch's\Turkey Hill 0.00030.0002 [.068] Welch's\Vita J 0.01780.0014 [.000] Welch's\Welchs -0.00140.0004 [.001]

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146 Table C-10.Continued Category Brands EstimateStd. Error P-value Welch's\Tropicana -0.00260.0006 [.000] Tropicana\Minute Maid -0.00050.0004 [.191] Tropicana\Newmans Own -0.00040.0002 [.010] Tropicana\Turkey Hill -0.00010.0001 [.049] Tropicana\Vita J -0.00090.0002 [.001] Tropicana\Welchs 0.01620.0013 [.000] Tropicana\Tropicana -0.00070.0013 [.623] Fruit Juice/Fruit Drinks Minute Maid\Capri Sun -0.00260.0017 [.126] Minute Maid\Gatorade -0.00910.0020 [.000] Minute Maid\Minute Maid -0.00010.0021 [.962] Minute Maid\POWERade -0.00480.0019 [.013] Minute Maid\Snapple 0.00000.0000 [1.00] Newman's Own\Capri Sun 0.00000.0000 [1.00] Newman's Own\Gatorade 0.00000.0000 [1.00] Newman's Own\Minute Ma id 0.00000.0000 [1.00] Newman's Own\POWERade 0.00000.0000 [1.00] Newman's Own\Snapple -0.00010.0000 [.010] Turkey Hill\Capri Sun -0.00010.0000 [.000] Turkey Hill\Gatorade -0.00010.0000 [.027] Turkey Hill\Minute Maid 0.00010.0001 [.308] Turkey Hill\POWERade 0.00000.0000 [.896] Turkey Hill\Snapple 0.00000.0000 [.344] Vita J\Capri Sun -0.00090.0006 [.174] Vita J\Gatorade -0.00060.0008 [.490] Vita J\Minute Maid 0.00300.0018 [.104] Vita J\POWERade 0.00050.0011 [.619] Fruit Juice/Fruit Drinks Vita J\Snapple 0.00060.0009 [.528] Welchs\Capri Sun -0.00060.0004 [.164] Welchs\Gatorade -0.00080.0006 [.229] Welchs\Minute Maid 0.00000.0010 [.981] Welchs\POWERade -0.00260.0007 [.000] Welchs\Snapple -0.00150.0006 [.014] Tropicana\Capri Sun -0.00220.0007 [.001] Tropicana\Gatorade 0.00120.0009 [.150] Tropicana\Minute Maid -0.00150.0004 [.001] Tropicana\POWERade -0.00050.0007 [.519] Tropicana\Snapple -0.00160.0007 [.017]

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147 Table C-11. Fruit drink feature and display elasticities with respect to other beverages Category Brands EstimateStd. Error P-value Fruit Drinks/Orange Juice Capri Sun\Florida's Natural -0.01530.0078 [.049] Capri Sun\Minute Maid -0.00890.0091 [.332] Capri Sun\Tropicana -0.04560.0082 [.000] Gatorade\Florida's Natural -0.02010.0055 [.000] Gatorade\Minute Maid -0.00810.0052 [.118] Gatorade\Tropicana -0.03200.0063 [.000] POWERade\Florida's Natural -0.00980.0021 [.000] POWERade\Minute Maid -0.00930.0025 [.000] POWERade\Tropicana -0.01480.0022 [.000] Snapple\Florida's Natural -0.00950.0079 [.232] Snapple\Minute Maid 0.01230.0089 [.168] Snapple\Tropicana 0.00030.0070 [.971] Fruit Drinks/Fruit Juices Capri Sun\Minute Maid -0.00170.0034 [.623] Capri Sun\Newman's Own -0.00830.0025 [.001] Capri Sun\Turkey Hill -0.00350.0010 [.000] Capri Sun\Vita J -0.00050.0004 [.174] Capri Sun\Welchs -0.00230.0017 [.164] Capri Sun\Tropicana -0.01430.0043 [.001] Gatorade\Minute Maid -0.00230.0015 [.126] Gatorade\Newman's Own -0.00390.0011 [.000] Gatorade\Turkey Hill -0.00090.0004 [.027] Gatorade\Vita J -0.00010.0002 [.490] Gatorade\Welchs -0.00100.0008 [.229] Gatorade\Tropicana 0.00270.0019 [.150] POWERade\Minute Maid 0.00000.0000 [1.00] POWERade\Newman's Own 0.00000.0000 [1.00] POWERade\Turkey Hill -0.00010.0020 [.962] POWERade\Vita J 0.00070.0015 [.626] POWERade\Welchs 0.00010.0005 [.896] POWERade\Tropicana 0.00010.0002 [.619] Snapple\Minute Maid -0.00390.0010 [.000] Snapple\Newman's Own -0.00120.0018 [.519] Snapple\Turkey Hill -0.01660.0067 [.013] Snapple\Vita J -0.00280.0050 [.580] Snapple\Welch's -0.00170.0018 [.344] Snapple\Tropicana 0.00050.0007 [.528]

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148 Table C-11. Continued Category Brands EstimateStd. Error P-value Fruit Drinks/Fruit Drinks Capri Sun\Capri Sun 0.16690.0115 [.000] Capri Sun\Gatorade -0.05520.0102 [.000] Capri Sun\Minute Maid -0.00890.0027 [.001] Capri Sun\POWERade -0.00780.0049 [.110] Capri Sun\Snapple 0.00530.0047 [.255] Gatorade\Capri Sun -0.01900.0035 [.000] Gatorade\Gatorade 0.09470.0098 [.000] Gatorade\Minute Maid -0.00280.0012 [.019] Gatorade\POWERade -0.00590.0020 [.003] Gatorade\Snapple -0.00150.0021 [.485] POWERade\Capri Sun -0.00300.0019 [.110] POWERade\Gatorade -0.00660.0022 [.003] POWERade\Minute Maid 0.00060.0016 [.699] POWERade\POWERade 0.04650.0045 [.000] POWERade\Snapple 0.00060.0027 [.833] Snapple\Capri Sun 0.00720.0063 [.255] Snapple\Gatorade -0.00590.0085 [.485] Snapple\Minute Maid 0.02450.0056 [.000] Snapple\POWERade 0.00200.0094 [.833] Snapple\Snapple 0.03430.0203 [.092]

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156 BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH Erika Knight was born in Warner Robins, GA, in 1981. She entered Fort Valley State University in 1999 and earned a Bachelor of Sc ience degree in agricultural economics in 2003. In August 2004, Erika joined the Food and Resour ce Economics Department at the University of Florida to further her education. After comple ting the Master of Science program in 2004, Erika continued into the PhD program within the same department and earned her PhD in 2008.