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The Diet Culture Phenomenon and Its Effect on the United States Orange Juice Industry

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PAGE 1

THE DIET CULTURE PHENOMENON AN D ITS EFFECT ON THE UNITED STATES ORANGE JUICE INDUSTRY By LEIGH ANN LOVE A THESIS PRESENTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL OF THE UNIVERSITY OF FLOR IDA IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA 2005

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Copyright 2005 by Leigh Ann Love

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This document is dedicated to God, to my frie nds, and to my family. It is especially dedicated to Sarah Austin (the best friend every woman shou ld have), Jessica Musengezi (who had patiently listened to my excite ment and exasperations) and to my nephew Cameron Maximilian Love (may his hopes and dreams be even bigger than his name).

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iv ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I would like to first expr ess my appreciation to my committee members, Dr. Thomas Spreen and Dr. Allen Wysocki, for th eir support and direction. I am especially grateful to Dr. James Sterns, my committ ee chairman, who has helped to guide my thoughts and decisions throughout th e research process, especia lly when the thesis topic was first born in February 2004. In addition, I would like to thank Dr. Cory Armstrong, of the University of Florida Journalism and Communicat ion Department, and Dr. Jennifer Robinson, of the University of Florida Public Relations Depa rtment, for their direc tion and constructive comments regarding the use and application of the content analysis method used for this research study. Also, special th anks go to Dr. Elaine Turner, of the University of Florida Food Science and Human Nutrition Departme nt, for her help with researching the cultural history of diets and dieting in the United States. In conclusion, I would like to express my sincerest gratitude to my family and closest friends for their continued support and encouragement as I pu rsue my educational goals. Finally, I thank God for His grace a nd mercy, and especially for continually showing me that “Nothing is im possible with God.” (Luke 1:37)

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v TABLE OF CONTENTS page ACKNOWLEDGMENTS.................................................................................................iv LIST OF TABLES...........................................................................................................viii LIST OF FIGURES.............................................................................................................x ABSTRACT....................................................................................................................... xi CHAPTERS 1 INTRODUCTION, PROBLEM STATEMENT, AND OBJECTIVES.......................1 Introduction................................................................................................................... 1 Problem Statement........................................................................................................2 Researchable Question..................................................................................................3 Hypotheses....................................................................................................................3 Objectives..................................................................................................................... 3 A Brief Overview of What Follows..............................................................................4 2 LITERATURE REVIEW.............................................................................................6 Diets and Dieting in America.......................................................................................6 Diet Culture...........................................................................................................6 Demographics of Dieters.......................................................................................7 Low-Carbohydrate Diets.......................................................................................8 Dr. Atkins’ New Diet Revolution ....................................................................9 Dr. Agatston and The South Beach Diet ......................................................10 Application of Diet Literature.............................................................................11 United States Orange Juice Industry...........................................................................11 The Golden Fruit.................................................................................................11 Florida Department of Citrus...............................................................................13 Recent Orange Juice Consumption Trends..................................................13 Industry Snapshot.........................................................................................14 Regional Consumption.................................................................................14 Consumer Profile.................................................................................................15 Dieting and Orange Juice Consumption..............................................................15 Application of Industry Literature.......................................................................16 Health Information Sources........................................................................................16 Content Analysis.........................................................................................................19 Relation to Scientific Method..............................................................................20 Typical Process....................................................................................................20 Application of Method........................................................................................21 Concerns to be Addressed...................................................................................25 Application of Content Analysis Literature........................................................25

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vi Book Popularity..........................................................................................................26 Life Cycle Theory.......................................................................................................27 Applications and Modifications..........................................................................28 Application of Life Cycle Theory Literature.......................................................30 3 DATA COLLECTI ON AND ANALYSIS.................................................................32 National and Regional Me dia Data Collection...........................................................32 Electronic Databases...........................................................................................32 Sampling..............................................................................................................33 Data Collection....................................................................................................33 Coding.................................................................................................................34 Time Periods Considered....................................................................................34 National Newspaper Analysis.............................................................................35 National Magazine Analysis................................................................................37 Regional Newspaper Analysis.............................................................................38 Book Popularity as Ranked on National Bestseller Lists....................................40 Publishers Weekly Bestseller Lists......................................................................41 Additional Data Collection.........................................................................................42 Purchases (Variable: PCGal)...............................................................................42 Price (Variable: RP)............................................................................................44 Gross Rating Point (Variable: GRP)...................................................................45 Field Staff (Variable: FieldStaff).........................................................................45 Personal Disposable Inco me (Variable PCINC).................................................46 4 LIFE CYCLE HYPOTHESIS....................................................................................47 Product Life Cycle Theory.........................................................................................47 Source of Diet Information: Newspapers and Magazines..........................................49 Source of Diet Information: Diet Books.....................................................................54 Conclusions.................................................................................................................60 5 DIET MEDIA COVERAGE AN D PURCHASES HYPOTHESIS...........................61 Trends in Diet Media Coverage and Pe r Capita Purchases of Orange Juice..............61 U.S. Diet Media Coverage and Orange Juice Purchases.....................................61 Southern Region Diet Media Covera ge and Orange Juice Purchases.................63 The Base Model, U.S. Orange Juice Demand............................................................64 The Adjusted Base Model, U.S. Orange Juice Demand.............................................67 Empirical Results, U.S. Orange Juice Demand...................................................68 Autocorrelation....................................................................................................70 Elasticity at the Means for U.S. Orange Juice Demand......................................70 U.S. Correlation Analysis....................................................................................71 Southern Region Orange Juice Demand Model.........................................................73 Empirical Results, Southern Region Orange Juice Demand...............................75 Autocorrelation....................................................................................................78 Elasticity at the Means for Sout hern Region Orange Juice Demand..................78

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vii Southern Region Correlation Analysis................................................................79 Conclusions.................................................................................................................80 6 SUMMARY, IMPLICATIONS, AND FUTURE RESEARCH................................82 Summary of Data Collection......................................................................................83 Major Findings............................................................................................................83 Hypothesis 1........................................................................................................83 Hypothesis 2........................................................................................................86 Research Implications.................................................................................................87 Suggestions for Future Research................................................................................90 Alternative Information Sources.........................................................................91 Media Impact and Demand.................................................................................92 Information Access and Application by Consumers...........................................92 APPENDIX A DIET MEDIA COVERAGE DATA TABLES..........................................................93 B NATIONAL AND REGIONAL PURCHASE AND PRICE DATA TABLES......113 C SAS PROGRAM USED TO ESTIMATE DEMAND.............................................127 BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH...........................................................................................134

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viii LIST OF TABLES Table page 3.1: Newspaper Circulation, Greater than 1 Million Copies Sold...................................35 3.2: Summary of National Ne wspaper Data Collection..................................................37 3.3: Magazine Circulation, Highest Paid Circulation Within Category..........................37 3.4: Summary of National Ma gazine Data Collection....................................................38 3.5: Southern Region Newspaper Circulation.................................................................39 3.6: Summary of Regional Newspaper Data Collection, January 1997 through December 2004........................................................................................................40 5.1: Estimated Model Results of U.S. Per Capita Orange Juice Demand.......................68 5.2: Elasticity at the Mean for Price, Inco me, and Diet Media Coverage in the Model for U.S. Orange Juice Demand......................................................................................71 5.3: Correlation Coefficient Matrix fo r National Orange Juice Demand Model, significance of each corr elation also shown.............................................................72 5.4: Estimated Model Results of Southern Region Per Capita Orange Juice Demand...76 5.5: Elasticity at the Mean for Price, Inco me, and Diet Media Coverage in the Model for Southern Region Orange Juice Demand..................................................................78 5.6: Correlation Coefficient Matrix for Sout hern Region Orange Juice Demand Model, significance of each corr elation also shown.............................................................79 A.1: National Diet Media Coverage Co llected from National Newspapers and Magazines, October 1995 through January 2005.....................................................93 A.2: Southern Region Health Informati on as Collected from Regional Newspapers, January 1997 through January 2005.........................................................................97 A.3: Weekly Bestseller Rankings for Atkins’ New Diet Revolution by Dr. Robert Atkins, New York Times and Publisher Weekly Bestseller Lists, April 1996 through February 2004. (Weeks that the book was not ranked are indicated as NR).........100 A.4: Weekly Bestseller Rankings for The South Beach Diet by Dr. Arthur Agatston, New York Times and Publisher Weekly Bestseller Lists, April 27, 2003 through December 19, 2004. (Weeks that the book was not ranked are indicated as NR).110 B.1: National Data Summary Tabl e, October 1995 through January 2005...................113

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ix B.2: Southern Region Data Summary Ta ble, January 1997 through January 2005......117 B.3: Weighted Average Price (National), based upon Prices and Quantity for various Product Forms........................................................................................................120 B.4: Weighted Average Price (Regional), based upon Prices and Quantity for various Product Forms........................................................................................................124

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x LIST OF FIGURES Figure page 4.1: Total Media Articles (January 1995 through December 2004)................................50 4.2: National Newspaper Articles (October 1995 through December 2004)..................51 4.3: National Magazine Articles (October 1995 through December 2004)....................51 4.4: Regional Newspaper Articles (January 1995 through December 2004)..................53 4.5: Atkins’ New Diet Revolution Weekly Rankings, Publishers Weekly Bestseller List (April 28, 1996 through December 28, 2003)..........................................................56 4.6: Atkins’ New Diet Revolution Weekly Rankings, New York Times (April 28, 1996 through December 28, 2003)....................................................................................57 4.7: The South Beach Diet Weekly Rankings, Publishers Weekly (April 27, 2003 through December 12, 2004)....................................................................................58 4.8: The South Beach Diet weekly rankings, New York Times (April 27, 2003 through December 19, 2004).................................................................................................59 5.1: U.S. Per Capita Orange Juice Pu rchases and Newspaper Articles on LowCarbohydrate Diets and Die ting, Annual (1996 through 2004)...............................62 5.2: U.S. Per Capita Orange Juice Purchases and Magazine Articles on LowCarbohydrate Diets and Die ting, Annual (1996 through 2004)...............................63 5.3: Southern Region Orange Juice Purc hases and Newspaper Articles, Annual (1997 through 2004)...........................................................................................................64 5.4: U.S. and Southern Region Per Capita Purchases of Orange Juice, Annual (1996 through 2004)...........................................................................................................74

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xi Abstract of Thesis Presen ted to the Graduate School of the University of Florida in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science THE DIET CULTURE PHENOMENON AN D ITS EFFECT ON THE UNITED STATES ORANGE JUICE INDUSTRY By Leigh Ann Love August 2005 Chair: James Sterns Major Department: Food and Resource Economics Generally speaking, fruit and fruit juices have been accepted by the public and nutritionists as excellent nutri ent sources and important additions to a healthy diet. Culturally, juice and orange juice in particular have a direct associ ation with breakfast meals. In the United States, these pref erences have come under attack by lowcarbohydrate diet proponents and adherents. In 1972 and 1992, Dr. Robert Atkins publis hed a book detailing the benefits and guidelines for a low-carbohydrate lifestyle. The bestseller status of this book since 1996 has prompted public and media attention to wards low-carbohydrate lifestyles developed by Dr. Atkins and other doctors, such as Dr Arthur Agatston who published a book about low-carbohydrate dieting entitled The South Beach Diet These diets, in many cases, specifically encourage diet adherents to decr ease or completely eliminate consumption of fresh fruit and/or fruit juices while dieting.

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xii The major objective of this study was to de termine if a relationship exists between diet media coverage of low-carbohydrate di ets and dieting and consumer demand for orange juice. Using per capita purchase data as a proxy for consumer demand of orange juice, two demand models, representing demand for orange juice in the United States and demand for orange juice in the Southern re gion, are presented to explain decreases in demand for orange juice. Conclusions about the effect of diet media coverage in newspapers upon demand for orange juice are based on estimates of per capita purchases as related to changes in factors such as price, diet coverage, existen ce of field staff, per capita discretionary income, and previous period purchases. Th e results indicate that diet media coverage does have a negative and si gnificant effect upon purchases of orange juice in both the United States a nd within the Southern region. An additional objective of the study was to determine whether or not diets occur in cycles and if said diet life cycles are defined by the amount of diet media coverage and diet book popularity. Articles about low-carbohydrate diets a nd dieting were collected from highly-circulated newspapers and ma gazines and weekly bestseller rankings of popular diet books were co llected as reported by Publisher’s Weekly. Orange juice is a major agricultural commodity produ ced in Florida. In 2002, citrus groves represented 8.37 percent of Flor ida total farm acreage and accounted for 21 percent of Florida farm sales; 95 percent of the Florida orange crop is processed into orange juice. This study contributes an aw areness of the impact that dieting trends, particularly the low-carb ohydrate diet, has upon consumption and purchases of food products, specifically orange juice.

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1 CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION, PROBLEM STATEMENT, AND OBJECTIVES Diets have come and gone, but the passion fo r slimming has mounted steadily. Weight watching and dieting have become a part of the customary fabric of American society, from the nightclub to the nursery. Hillel Schwartz, Never Satisfied Introduction Generally speaking, fruit and fruit juices have been accepted by the public and nutritionists as excellent nutrien t sources and important additions to a healthy diet and are included within the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) dietary guidelines for healthy eating. Culturally, juice and or ange juice in particular have a direct association with breakfast m eals. In the United States, these preferences have come under attack by low-carbohydrate di et proponents and adherents. In the 1970s, a book detailing the benefits and guidelines for a low-carbohydrate lifestyle was written by Dr. Robert Atkins and it eventually sold 10 million copies worldwide. After the diet faded from pub lic view for nearly two decades, Atkins republished the diet book in 1992 as Dr. Atkins’ New Diet Revolution. This book triggered another wave of hi gh-protein, low-carbohydrate diet ers, although the diet did not reach widespread popularity until th e late-1990s when Atkins’ book became a bestseller. This bestseller st atus has directed public and media attention towards lowcarbohydrate lifestyles developed by Dr. Atkins and other doctors who have created similar diet plans that follow the low-car bohydrate philosophy. These diets, in many

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2 cases, specifically encourage diet adhere nts to decrease or completely eliminate consumption of fresh fruit and/or fruit juices while dieting. On average, an eight ounces glass of or ange juice has 27 grams of carbohydrates. Many low-carbohydrate diets advoc ate limiting daily carbohydrat e intake; the Atkins diet recommends that dieters limit daily car bohydrate consumption to 20 grams per day during the first phase of the diet and to 30 grams per day during the second phase of the diet. Because recommended daily ca rbohydrate limits by low-carbohydrate diet proponents is less than the amount of carbohydrat es in an eight ounce glass of orange juice, orange juice is a food product consider ed high in carbohydrates and consumption is typically reduced by consumers following a low-carbohydrate diet. Florida orange juice growers hold the lo w-carbohydrate dieting trend at least partially responsible for recent decreases in United States per capita orange juice consumption. According to Weinraub (2004), who reported research conducted by AC Nielsen for the Florida Department of Citrus that involved random surveys of 2,600 U.S. households in December 2003, 26 percent of th e people surveyed intentionally reduced their orange juice consumption over the past y ear. Of that 26 percent, 35 percent reported that they did so due to low-carbohydrate dieting. Problem Statement Given decreases in U.S. orange juice consumption since the late 1990s and the high volume of diet and hea lth-related information made available to the consuming public via various channels in the mainst ream media, citrus growers would like researchers to determine if an inverse causa l relationship exists be tween increased media attention towards low-carbohydrate diets and decreased orange juic e purchases in the United States. It may also be beneficial to agribusiness firm s to determine whether or not

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3 diets occur in cycles and if these “diet life cycles” can be defined by the intensity of topical media coverage of diet s and/or diet book popularity. Researchable Question This research focused on the following que stion: How has the cultural history of dieting in the United States over the past 20 years affected consumer demand for orange juice? By answering this question and addre ssing related issues, a better understanding of diets and dieting in the United States and the effect that such consumer behavior has upon the purchasing of food products, specifically orange juice, can be attained. Such information can be vital to th e agricultural sector and specifi c agricultural industries, such as the orange juice industry, when facing cha nges in demand for food products due to diet trends and associated purchasi ng and consumption behaviors. Hypotheses In the process of addressing the research able question, two hypotheses are tested. These hypotheses involve testing for relationships between diet s and purchasing habits as well as the relationship between diets and fre quency of diet media coverage as found in national and regional newspapers magazines, and diet books. 1. Dieting trends occur in cycles, such that th ey follow a cyclical pattern similar to the product life-cycle theory. 2. Demand for orange juice is correlated w ith diet media coverage in the media. Objectives The first hypothesis is addressed by gra phically analyzing th e popularity of lowcarbohydrate diets and dieting. The frequenc y of newspaper and magazine articles written about low-carbohydrate diets serve as a proxy for diet popularity in this study, as

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4 do weekly bestseller rankings of popular diet boo ks. All data sets ar e graphed to discern whether or not a diet life cycle similar to the product life cycle curve is defined by the popularity of a diet as measured by diet media coverage and diet book popularity. To address the second hypothesis, U.S. a nd Southern region orange juice purchases from October 1995 through January 2005 data are used to estimate consumer demand. Content analysis is then used to generate quantified measures of low-carbohydrate diet media coverage. Collected media coverage is then overlaid to coincide with purchase data periods. The model for consumer demand is then defined as a function of a set of independent variables, incl uding a diet media coverage variable representing the frequency of media articles regarding low-carbohydrate diets and dieting. Other explanatory variables in the demand analysis in cluded real price, exis tence of field staff working for the Florida citrus industry, gro ss rating points as a measure of advertising intensity for citrus promotions, and per capita discretionary income. A Brief Overview of What Follows In Chapter 2, relevant literature is discu ssed regarding the cultur al history of dieting in America and elsewhere throughout history, c onsumer behavior research pertaining to the use of health information and the eff ect of health motivation upon decisions and behaviors, the use of content analysis as a tool for measuring the degree to which media sources address issues in society, and fina lly the product life cycl e theory, which is applied in Chapter 4 to ex amine potential diet trends. The method used to collect diet media c overage data from national and regional newspapers and magazines, as well as w eekly bestseller ra nkings for popular lowcarbohydrate diet books is di scussed in Chapter 3. In addi tion, a discussion is presented

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5 concerning the use of scanner purchase data as a proxy for orange juice consumption. The variables considered for the base model are also described. The first hypothesis is addressed in Chap ter 4 by discussing and applying the product life cycle theory thr ough graphical analysis of th e frequency of news and magazine articles and popularity of diet books as defined by national be stseller lists, over time. The second hypothesis is addressed in Chapter 5, in which the econometric model of consumer demand for orange juice is discu ssed. Summary of the research implications and suggestions for future research are discussed in Chapter 6.

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6 CHAPTER 2 LITERATURE REVIEW This literature review is divided into si x major topic areas, within which a number of these sections are further divided into subsections. The topic areas are: Diets and Dieting in America, United States Orange Juice Industry, Health Information Sources, Content Analysis, Book Popular ity, and Life Cycle Theory. Diets and Dieting in America “Reducing has become a national pastim e …a craze, a national fanaticism, a frenzy…” wrote a journalist in 1925, who c oncluded that, “People now converse in pounds, ounces, and calories.” To this day, th is national pastime of reduction and dieting encompasses almost as much national and collective passion as American baseball and mom’s apple pie. Interest in dieting and we ight reduction continue to endure and as of late, consumers have added to their vernacu lar such diet terms as “low carbohydrate,” “POINTS,” “good fat,” “bad fat,” “good carbs ,” and “bad carbs” (Schwartz 1986, 183). Diet Culture The term, “diet” typically refers to thos e things customarily eaten. That term, however, according to Gruber (2002 ) is now used to describe an attempt to lose weight. Most recently, many of those dieting have reported to be following a low-carbohydrate lifestyle. The types of diets that people have followed thr oughout history are continually changing, although in many cases diets are reinve nted; such is the case with the high-fat, low carbohydrate diets which were first introduced in Germany in the 1880s:

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7 Each time the diet has reappeared, it ha s been impervious to its past. The rejuvenation of diets is as much a pa rt of the culture of slimming as the rejuvenation of the dieter… the dieter is therefore little disturbed by the apparent contradictions between one di et and the next. It is not as if a dieter follows a logical program or steps progressively from a worse diet to a better diet. (Schwartz 1986, 6-8) Diets do seem to occur in a cyclical patte rn, insomuch that the popular diet of the times is generally replaced as the people find that it is no longer successful. Schwartz calls this “the typical chronicle of slimmi ng” which encompasses, “a discrete set of flashing points, enlightenment to dark age to enlightenment, discontinuous and disappointing…the more obvious th e vicious circle, the more extreme the next diet.” Schwartz also notes that these diets seem to appear, “out of nowhere, in no time at all, like barbarians or wandering saints and they seem to disappear as easily and as swiftly as they come” (Schwartz 1986, 6). Schwartz continues his criticism of diets and dieting while rec ognizing that dieting has not only retained its popularity throughout history, but that dieting has also been incorporated into many facets of American culture: Diets have come and gone, but the passi on for slimming has mounted steadily. Weight watching and dieting have become a part of the customary fabric of American society, from the nightclub to the nursery. Slimming…is the modern expression of an industrial society confus ed by its own desires and therefore never satisfied. On the one hand we seem to wa nt more of everything; on the other hand we are suspicious of surplus. (Schwartz 1986, 5) Demographics of Dieters According to Simmons Market Research (2004), 40.3 million Americans, 19.5% of the population, are currently controlling their di et. More women than men are controlling their diets, 26% and 12% of the population, re spectively. This tre nd holds across various diet-related activities and attitudes. Afte r gender, the major demographic category for indicating who is controlling their diet is by age group, with those adults ages 45-54 at an

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8 index of 117, or 17% above the adult norm. Additionally, those living in the West are 16% above the norm, when compared with popula tions in other U.S. geographic regions. According to the same study, researchers found that for those consumers who are willing to try any new diet, Blacks are more th an twice as likely as the adult norm to try a new diet, and those consumers living in house holds of five or more persons are 52% more likely. Women are also more likely than the adult norm to tr y new diets, as are those consumers who reside in the South. Adul ts either under the age of 35 or older than 55 are significantly more likely to try new diets as well. Researchers also discovered that indicat ors for likelihood to c ontrol diet include individual income, educati onal attainment, and age for both men and women. Those women earning $75,000-$99,999 are 29% more lik ely than other women and men earning $100,000-$149,000 are 52% more likely than other men, to control their diet. Educational attainment is the second highest indicator for both women and men, as those who attended graduate school are 26% a nd 39% higher than the respective gender average. A final indicator seems to be age; both men and women be tween the ages of 4554 are higher than their average counterpar ts to diet: 22% above the U.S. norm for females, and 18% above for males (Simmons Market Research, 2004). Low-Carbohydrate Diets As with many diets, the recent low-carbohydrate dieting trend is a re-invention of the low-carbohydrate diets of the 1970s. Th e interest in low-ca rbohydrate diets during the 1970s was prompted by Dr. Robert Atki ns, who at the time published, “The Diet Revolution,” which described a weight-loss pl an which incorporated a high-protein, highfat, and low-carbohydrate diet. The low-carbohy drate diet, however, began much earlier than the 1970s and by historical accounts is at tributed to an aural surgeon, Dr. William

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9 Harvey, who prescribed a diet in the 1860s “free from farinaceous [starchy] and saccharine [sugary] foods” for a London undertaker, Mr. William Banting. Mr. Banting, who suffered from deafness due to fatty matter in the throat pressing upon his Eustachian tubes, was a patient of Dr. Harvey. Dr. Harvey based his recommendation to Mr. Banting upon a lecture by French physiologist Claude Bernard on excess sugar in the liver of diabetics. Ban ting’s diet consisted of lean meat, dry toast, soft-boiled eggs and green vegetables, resu lting in a total loss of 52 pounds by 1864 and clear hearing. Overjoyed by his weight-los s success, Banting wrote and printed his “Letter on Corpulence.” By his death in 1878, more than 58,000 copies of the diet pamphlet had been sold, and “Banting” b ecame synonymous with “reducing” (Schwartz 1986, 100-101). According to other sources, Banting’s booklet had sold as many as 68,000 copies within six years of the first pr inting, after having been translat ed into German and French. Banting went on to publish three more revisions to his booklet and re ceived letters from over 2,000 individuals claiming success while ad hering to his diet pr inciples (Gruber, 2002). By the 1880s, American physicians disc overed that Banting’s diet had become the most common method of dieting to lose we ight as the laity bega n to adopt it by word of mouth, and the principles entered into the lore of cooking schools (Schwartz 1986, 101). Dr. Atkins’ New Diet Revolution Low-carbohydrate diets have become the mo st recent dieting trend in the United States, becoming popular after Dr. Atkins re published his 1970s dieting bestseller as, “ Dr. Atkins’ New Diet Revolution .” Although the book was rel eased in 1992, it did not appear on The New York Times Paperback “Bestsellers List for Advice, How-to and

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10 Miscellaneous” until April 1996. It was then that the low-carbohydrate diet was again reborn into popular culture and began its ascent to becoming the popular dieting trend of the late 1990s and into the 21st century. Since the book bestseller lists have become an acceptable gauge of book popularity, weekly rankings from The New York Times and Publisher’s Weekly are investigated in Chapter 4 as potential measures for diet popularity. The diet’s popularity was also revealed through marketing agre ements between the parent co mpany of the Atkins’ diet, Atkins Nutritionals Inc., and restaurants such as TGI Friday s and Subway to carry items on menus approved for use while on the Atki ns’ low-carbohydrate di et (Horovitz, 2004). Dr. Agatston and The South Beach Diet A variation of Dr. Atkins ’ low-carbohydrate diet, The South Beach Diet book by Dr. Arthur Agatston, was re leased in April 2003 and immediately appeared on The New York Times Hardcover Advise Best-Sellers Li st. Although the diet is generally considered to have an emphasis on decr easing carbohydrate consumption, a posting on The South Beach Diet website states that the diet is not focused on a low-carbohydrate or low-fat lifestyle, but rather focused on, “…learning th e basics of good nutrition, which involves choosing good carbs and good fats —and knowing which ones to avoid.” As of December 2004, Atkins New Diet Revolution had only been printed in paperback and The South Beach Diet book had only been printed in hardcover. Since these books with different binding s are ranked on separate bestse ller lists, it is difficult to determine which diet book, Atkins or S outh Beach, was most popular during a given week. It is important to not e that several celebrities have become “diet success stories,” such as Bette Midler, Nicole Kidman and form er President Bill Clinton. Like the Atkins diet company, South Beach also agreed to marketing deals with major food companies,

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11 such as Kraft Foods, to carry The South Beach Diet seal on the packages of various products approved under the diet plan (Horovitz, 2004). Application of Diet Literature The information gathered pertaining to th e diet history and culture in the United States helps to set the stage for the study, by identifying the impact that dieting has upon culture. In addition, this sect ion of the literature review also introduces the types of health information generally associated with a popular dieting trend. A specific example is the use of books or pamphlets to circ ulate diet information, as was done by Mr. Banting in the late 1880s and more recently by Dr. Atkins and Dr. Agatston. Finally, this section helps to lay the groundwork for unders tanding how diets may occur in cycles, which directly relates the first hypothesis of the study. United States Orange Juice Industry Considered to be a “Cinderella story” of the food industry, the development of frozen concentrated orange juice helped to catapult the demand for orange juice in the United States, eventually making it one of the most popular beverages in American history. The Golden Fruit The first recorded mention of citron, a la rge lemon-like fruit a nd the forerunner of the orange, was in Chinese writings attribut ed to Confucius, a Chinese philosopher who died in 479 BC. Although this fruit was proba bly originally bitter inedible and used primarily as an ornament and for seasoning, the fruit eventually reached Europe and was probably first introduced into the Mediterran ean area by Arab traders (Florida Citrus, 1974).

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12 It is believed that although Columbus is rumored to have taken citrus seed along on his second voyage to the New World in 1493, it was Ponce de Leon who probably brought citrus to Florida in 1513 while he wa s searching for the F ountain of Youth. The earliest groves were devel oped near St. Augustine and Ta mpa and commercial production of citrus was confined to these coastal areas for the first 300 years because the only means of transporting fruit was by water (Florida Citrus, 1974). According to the Glossary of Common C itrus Terms, “the orange has taken on many different forms on its way to the cons umer.” Before 1915, less than 1% of all oranges were processed. In the late 1930s and particularly during World War II, the “juice for breakfast fad” grew steadily becau se orange groves (particularly in Florida) began to expand and consumers had more dispos able income than ever before. The U.S. government prescribed fresh fruit for the ar med services and following World War II, an overproduction of oranges emerged. In res ponse to this overproduction, three research scientists, MacDowell, Moor e, and Adkins, developed a process for frozen orange concentrate that involved vacuum evaporation. This “taste like fresh product” helped recover the slack in demand for single-strengt h juice and fresh consumption from 1950 to 1970 (Florida’s Golden Fruit, 1977). The status of orange juice as a “Cindere lla story” of the food business is based on its widely successful introduction into the market. Fro zen concentrated orange juice production increased from 225,000 gallons during the 1945-46 season to over 186 million gallons during the 1975-76 season. “The nati on embraced the product like nothing since Henry Ford’s model T, and Florida citr us vaulted into the world’s number one agricultural industry (Florida’s Golden Fruit, 1977, 67).”

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13 Florida Department of Citrus The Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC) is an executive agency of the Florida state government charged with the marketi ng, research and regulat ion of the Florida citrus industry; the agency’s mission is to help grow the demand for Florida citrus products, providing a direct benefit to the state’s citrus growers. According to the FDOC website, FDOC programs are funded by a tax paid by citrus growers on each box of citrus that moves through commercial channels, which is spent on advertising and promotional activitie s for Florida citrus in the United States, Canada, Europe and Asia. In addition, the FDOC also has regulatory responsibilities, including research, producti on, fertilizing, maturity stan dards, harvesting, licensing, transportation, labeling, packing and processing. FDOC funding also provided for field st aff posted in major U.S. markets that worked with retailers and f ood service providers to promote Florida Citrus and helped retailers in the areas of me rchandising, in-store promotions, as well as with category management such as allocating shelf space. They also helped coordinate Florida Department of Citrus generic advertising with retailer promotions. Since March 2001, however, the field staff has been largely eliminated. Recent Orange Juice Consumption Trends Frozen concentrated orange juice became very popular with American consumers, which drove much of the growth of orange ju ice consumption in the United States. Like most food products, however, the form that orange juice has taken over the years is attributed, in part, to cha nging consumer tastes and preferences. During the 1985-86 season, consumers began to purchase more chil led than frozen orange juice product, a change attributed to consumers’ desire for convenience. The next big shift in

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14 consumption trends of orange juice occurr ed during the 2001-02 season when consumers began to purchase more not-from-concentrate (NFC) product than product that was either frozen concentrate or reconstituted. This shif t is attributed to c onsumer perceptions of quality associated with NFC orange jui ce products and a continuing preference for convenience. Industry Snapshot As consumers’ buying behavior has shif ted towards NFC orange juice products, brand labels have grown in popularity. Du ring the 2002-03 season, the top three brands in the market (Tropicana, Minute Maid, and Fl orida Natural) were responsible for 62.6% of total orange juice purchas es and 90.2% of NFC purchas es. Brand names and store brands also have held the larg est market shares for reconsti tuted orange juice products. In addition to the changes in product form, p ackaging of orange juice has also changed, moving away from canned and glass containe rs towards carton and plastic containers (FDOC). Regional Consumption The decline for orange juice began in th e late 1990s and ha s continued steadily, although at differing rates and va rying trends among geographic regions of the U.S. The southeastern region is defined by ACNielse n as including states south of Oklahoma, Arkansas, Kentucky, West Virginia, and Mary land. This region has the highest total regional consumption of orange juice, although it is the northeastern region that has the highest per capita consumption. Not-from-Concentrate products have the hi ghest market share in the northeast region, while reconstituted and NFC products ha ve comparably high market shares in the southern region. Consumers in the western and north central regi ons tend to prefer

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15 frozen and reconstituted product, which is attributed to the co st incurred through the transportation of water from Florida (as would be included in Not-from-Concentrate orange juice products). Consumer Profile According to data collected by AC Nielson for the 2002-2003 growing season, consumers of orange juice tend to be affl uent and Hispanic or African American. Additionally, consumption of orange juice increases with education, household income, and household size (FDOC). Dieting and Orange Juice Consumption According to Weinraub (2004), slightly fewer than 80 percent of American households were buying orange juice in J une 2004, as compared to approximately 81 percent of households in 2002. This decrease in consumption was particularly noticeable in the ''heavy user'' category, which is define d as households that consume 12.5 gallons or more annually. According to the FDOC, this shift in consumer behaviors has been attributed to three factors: 1) dieting; 2) consumer growing interest in nutrition and eating well; and 3) negative messages about orange juice (FDOC). According to AC Nielsen (2003), “As many as 25 million people have tried the Atkins diet alone…which doesn’t even in clude other low-carb programs. These new trends are changing the way consumers percei ve nutrition and healt h, and marketers are beginning to adapt to these new regimens (20).” Crotty (2003) stated that among dieters, 40% said that they plan to consume less jui ce, mainly to avoid s ugar and that only 8% indicated that they planned to consume more orange juice.

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16 Application of Industry Literature Because of the potential significance of di et cultural trends on the demand for orange juice, understanding the continual de velopment of orange juice as a product is significant. This body of literature also helps to frame the problem statement and objectives, as stated in Chapter 1. The information gathered on recent consumption trends, especially the observat ion that the shift towards incr eased purchases of the more expensive NFC orange juice product highlig hts a possible problem with the data if average price rather than a weighted pri ce (based on relative ma rket share of NFC, reconstituted, frozen concentrate, and shelf st able) were to be included in the regression analysis. Health Information Sources According to Moorman and Matulich (1993) there are two beha viors that should be taken into account when considering the ro le of health information and its potential influence on individual choices: health information acquisition behaviors and health maintenance behaviors. Health information ac quisition behavior is th e degree to which a consumer acquires health information from various sources, including media and labels, friends and family, and health professionals. Health maintenance behaviors refer to the degree to which a consumer performs health -enhancing behaviors, including utilizing health professionals for check-ups, impr oving dietary intake, minimizing stress, moderating alcohol consumption, and eliminating tobacco use. MacInnis, et al (1991) define health motiv ation as the, “consumers’ goal-directed arousal to engage in preventative health behaviors (34).” This incorporates the consumer’s willingness to perform and interest in performing health behaviors, such as dieting and weight reduction. According to Celsi and Olson (1988), health motivation

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17 activates consumers and drives them to pursu e health behaviors. These behaviors are presumably important goals or values and hence motivated consumers devote more attention to and exert greater cognitive effort towards the processing of relevant information. Moorman and Matulich (1993) also address health motivation, stating that it stimulates consumers to put their knowledge, sk ills, or resources into practice. Consumer research literature supports that health knowledge and e ducation levels reflect an expertise that assists in health information processing and selecting health behaviors. Alba and Hutchinson (1987) found that high ly knowledgeable consumers acquire and retain more information and that knowledge eases the encoding of information. Additionally, Moorman and Ma tulich (1993) found that inco me reflects consumers’ financial ability to implement health behaviors. Moorman and Matulich (1993) conducted a survey of consumers, comparing lowerand higher-income consumers and young a nd elderly consumers. Their research revealed that health motivation increases the amount of health information acquired from media sources, health professional contact, di et restriction, and di et addition, but not information acquired from casual sources (suc h as friends and fam ily). Additionally, higher use of media sources for health info rmation was found for highly motivated but more able consumers, who were charact erized by high health knowledge and high income. Moorman and Matulich also indicate d that the acquisition of media information did interact with the restricti on of negative dieting elements. In terms of health behaviors, Moor man and Matulich (1993) concluded that consumers were more influenced by information from media sources rather than information from casual sources. This was attr ibuted to the fact that health information

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18 typically involves an idea, product, or prac tice that is e ssentially new for consumers; therefore, health information may be thought of as an innovation. Rodgers (1983) suggests that the information provider and receiver should be different enough (in terms of expertise, values, or beliefs) from one anot her that the receiver perceives the provider as having credibility and in turn values the information. Perhaps this explains why casual sources, which may be seen as too similar to themselves by consumers, are not valued as highly as media sources. According to the American Dietetic Asso ciation’s (2002) consumer research study, media is a major contributor to nutrition and health knowledge. Answering an openended question about their chief sources of nutrition information, in which they could give more than one answer, 72 percent of c onsumers named television as a chief source of nutrition information. Popular magazines and newspapers were also ranked as chief sources of nutrition information by 58 percent and 33 percent of respondents, respectively. Books, including references and general-interest publications, were identified by 15% of respondents as chief sources of nutrition information. Application of Health Information Literature Since this research study is primarily concerned with the effect that health information, specifically information about lo w-carbohydrate diets, th e Atkins diet, and The South Beach Diet has had upon purchases of orange juice, it was important to identify how consumers process health inform ation. In addition, the literature regarding health motivation and the eff ect that increased health motivation has upon the amount of health information acquired also provides further depth to the study. Similarly, the premise that people who are concerned about th eir health and/or weight will have higher health motivation and therefore acquire mo re health information as compared to

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19 counterparts who are not as concer ned about their health and/or weight is insightful. This body of literature also suggests that purchase decisions are not n ecessarily directly affected by health information if health mo tivation for each individua l is not present. Health information is a general term whic h includes sources of information ranging from doctors and dieticians to newspapers and magazines. For this study, the focus will be on health information collected from newspapers and magazines, which will be identified as “diet media coverage.” Content Analysis Kolbe and Burnett (1991) define content analysis as, “an observational research method that is used to systematically eval uate the symbolic cont ent of all forms of recorded information,” and suggest that conten t analysis provides an empirical starting point for generating new research evidence ab out the nature and effect of specific communication (243). This method, however, is susceptible to the e ffects of researcher biases, which can affect decisions made in the collection, analysis and interpretation of data. According to Kassarjian (1977), the content analysis method is a formal methodology used in political science, journalism, social psychology, and communications research. In t hose fields, the content analys is method is described as a research technique for the, “objective, sy stematic, and quantitative description of the manifest of content communication; the scie ntific analysis of communication messages that requires rigorous and systematic analys is; a systematic technique for analyzing message content and message handling (8).” According to Neuendorf (2002), content analys is is as easy—or as difficult—as the researcher determines it to be and is not necessarily easier than conducting a survey, experiment, or other type of study. The term content analysis does not apply to every

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20 analysis of message content. A content an alysis summarizes, rath er than reports, all details concerning a message set and much of content analysis literature concentrates on manifest content, or the “elements that ar e physically present and countable (15).” Content analysis may be conducted on wr itten text, transcribed speech, verbal interactions, visual images, ch aracterizations, nonverbal beha viors, sound events, or any other message type. Neuendorf also notes that th e term text analysis re fers to the specific type of content analysis that focu ses on written or transcribed words. Relation to Scientific Method According to Neuendorf (2002), content analys is as a research method is consistent with the goals and standards of survey research. In content analysis, an attempt is made to measure all variables as they naturally or normally occur. Additionally, content analysis is a design that meets the require ment of objectivity and inter-subjectivity through its a priori design since all decisions on variab les, their measurement and coding are made prior to observation. For content anal ysis, reliability is an extremely important factor, especially when human coders are us ed. Without acceptable levels of reliability, content analysis measures are meaningless. Typical Process Neuendorf describes the typica l process of content analys is research as including nine steps: 1. Theory and rationale, what cont ent will be examined and why; 2. Conceptualization, what variables will be used in the study and how are they defined conceptually; 3. Operationalizations, measures should matc h conceptualization to prove internal validity and the unit of data collection;

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21 4. Coding schemes, (whether human or co mputer coding is used) a codebook and coding form should be created which fully explain what variables will be measured; 5. Sampling, census of the content possible or how a subset of the content will be randomly sampled; 6. Training and pilot reliabilit y, agree on the coding and note the reliability on each variable; 7. Coding, use at least two coders to establis h intercoder reliabilit y. Coding should be done independently with 10% ove rlap for reliability test; 8. Final reliability, calculate a reliabi lity figure for each variable; and, 9. Tabulation and reporting, figures and statistics may be reported using univariate or multivariate techniques. Neuendorf (2002) also notes that over-tim e trends are also a common reporting method. In the long run, relationships betw een content analysis variables and other measures may establish crit erion and construct validity. For a content analysis to be generalizable to some population of messages, the sample for the analysis should be randomly selected. Randomness may be defined as follows: Every element (unit) in the populat ion must have an equal chance of being selected. In the case of a small population, there may be no need to draw a smaller, representative sample of the population. Rather, all units in the population may be included in the study (i.e., a census). Application of Method Predictive content analysis has as its pr imary goal the prediction of some outcome or effect of the messages under examinati on. By measuring key characteristics of messages, the researcher aims to predict rece iver or audience respons es to the messages. A type of predictive content analysis that ha s been gaining popularity is the prediction of public opinion from news coverage of issu es. For example, Hertog and Fan (1995) found

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22 that print news coverage of three potential HIV transmission routes (toilets, sneezing, and insects) preceded and was significantly rela ted to public beliefs about those routes as expressed in polls. Shoemaker and Reese (1996) developed a model of research domains for typologizing mass media studies. Their proposed domains are as follows: a) Source and system factors affecting media content; b) Me dia content characteristics as related to audience’s use of and evaluation of content; c) Media content characteristics as predictive of media effects on the audien ce; D) Characteristics of th e audience and its environment as related to the audience use and evaluation of media content; and E) Audiences’ uses of and evaluation of media cont ent as related to media’s effects on the audience. Breen (1997) searched the Lexis Nexis databa se for all newspaper articles in major papers during certain periods occurring between 1991 and 1994 that included the key search terms, “catholic” and “priest” or “cler gy” within two words of each other. The search yielded a set of article s that served as th e population from which he then drew a sample. According to Riechert (1995), su ch a key-word search procedure does not retrieve every article on the topic, but it yiel ds a reasonable sample of sufficient size for meaningful analysis. He also concluded that duplicate articles yielded by the search should be eliminated from the population to be sampled, as are articles unrelated to the topic of concern. The International Food Information C ouncil Foundation has, since 1995, conducted Food For Thought, a quantitative and qualitative analysis of the food news published by more than three dozen major national, regional, and targeted local news outlets, including network television, major magazines and news papers, and health and nutrition Internet

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23 sites; each report covers a two-year inte rval. The report issued for 2001-2003 tracked news reports in 40 media outlets over a th ree-month period in 2003 and indicated that obesity and weight management were the t op news topics, captur ing 15 percent of all news discussions. Content analysis is being used with in creased frequency by a growing array of researchers. According to Neuendorf (2002), a six-fold increase occurred in the number of content analyses published in the Jour nalism and Mass Communication Quarterly over a 24 year period, 6.3% of all ar ticles in 1971 to 34.8% in 1995. Content Analysis in Agricultural Economics Within the field of Agricultural Economic s, several studies have been conducted investigating the relationship between me dia coverage and demand for various food products. Most of these studi es concentrate on the demand impacts of how various food safety risks are portrayed in the media, both in the United St ates and abroad. In these studies, media coverage is considered on two levels, sustained media coverage and heightened media coverage. According to Kalaitzandonakes, et al (2005), sustained and heightened media coverage is dependent upon the length of time an issue exists in the media. Kalaitzandonakes, et al (2005) invest igated the relationship between GM ingredient labels, sustained GM-related food risk as portrayed in the media, and demand for frozen and canned food items in the Netherlands. They determined that Dutch consumers did not significantly change thei r purchasing behavior of biotech foods in response to media coverage. This is the onl y study found thus far that indicates demand was not significantly changed due to media coverage. Additionally, the media attention directed towards the U.S. Starlink corn case was considered by Kalaitzandonakes, et al

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24 with regards to heightened media coverage of the issue. Results of the research indicated that acute media coverage did influence consumer purchasing behavior and that those changes in consumer demand affected primarily those branded products that were directly identified by the media. The research, however, indicated that the overall change in consumer demand was temporary and rather small. Van Ravenswaay and Hoehn (1991) inve stigated the rela tionship between demand for apples following the Alar scar and sustained media coverage of the food safety issue relating to apple consumption in light of the food scare. Their research indicated a relationship between media covera ge and subsequent decrease in demand for apples. Overall, demand for apples decreased by 30% duri ng the 6-year study. Verbeke and Ward (2001) investigated the relationship between meat consumption and sustained media coverage of hormones and BSE (Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy, otherwise known as Mad Co w Disease) from 1995-1998 in Belgium and the United Kingdom. Their research indica ted a reduction in consumer expenditures on beef over 4 years by 2% in Belgium. In addition, demand for beef in the United Kingdom decreased by 40% after the link betw een BSE and vCJD (Variant CreutzfeldtJakob Disease) was reported. Piggott and Marsh (2004) investigated the impact of heightened media coverage of listeria, salmonella, E coli, and BSE on U.S. demand for beef, chicken, and pork. Their research revealed that consumers reac ted to contemporaneous media coverage of such risks only. Although this result held over a twenty-year time period, the research indicates that the overall econom ic effects from such consumer response were relatively small.

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25 Swartz and Strand (1981) considered th e impact of kepone contamination (a potential carcinogen) on demand for oysters in certain U.S. markets. Their research found that the media had a moderate but temporary negative impact on demand for oysters. After consumer reaction to media c overage of kepone contamination wore off, the research indicates that U. S. consumption of oysters re turned to prev ious levels. In other contexts, content analysis has been used to identify future implications for research in the Agriculture Economics di scipline by Corbett ( 1997), who examined research articles published in the Jour nal of Food Distribution Research from 1984 through 1998. In a similar fashion, Gempes aw and Albay (1996) conducted a content analysis of the Agricultural and Resource Economics Review to determine whether the journal had maintained a strong regional fo cus and whether or not there had been a narrow concentration of published ar ticles by subject area and methodology. Concerns to be Addressed According to Kalaitzandonakes, et al (2005), media coverage is dynamic and it can be difficult for researchers to measure or observe the amount of information accessed and understood by consumers. Additionally, the shaping and revising of consumer perceptions in response to new information subj ect to lengthy lags and the translation of perceptions into actions is poorly understood. Application of Content Analysis Literature The body of literature collected regarding C ontent Analysis is helpful in identifying the methods used to sample, collect, code, a nd analyze health inform ation gathered from national and regional newspapers and magazines. The range of use of Content Analysis to determine the effect that media has ha d upon the demand for particular food products also provides validity and acceptance of the method within the field of Agricultural

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26 Economics. Applications of the method out side Agricultural Economics were also helpful when specifics of the method for this study were considered and applied. This includes the use of media information to ga uge public beliefs a nd attitudes, various sampling techniques, and the use of electronic databases such as Le xisNexis to collect media articles for analysis. Book Popularity Book popularity is generally measured by sa les, and sales data are published on a weekly basis by several organizations. The most well-known and recognized is The New York Times Bestseller List, which is published week ly. A second source of bestseller lists used in this research is P ublisher’s Weekly, a 131-year-old international weekly news magazine of the book industry. The Publishe rs’ Weekly magazine reaches every major publisher worldwide, and according to the comp any website, the magazine is the leading publication serving all segments involved in the creation, production, marketing and sale of the written word in book, audio, video and electronic formats. According to Sornette et al (2004), 138 books from Amazon's Top 50 rankings were analyzed and they conclude d that top sellers tend to reach their sales peak in one of two ways. These researchers indicate that many books achieve bestseller status due to “exogenous shocks” such as a major media a nnouncement, a celebrity endorsement, or a dignitary's death. In these cases, the instant ri se in sales is followed by a fairly quick decline. However, their research also shows that other books inch their way to the top of bestseller lists over the course of many months, helped by cascades of tiny “endogenous shocks'' such as a friend's recommendation. An example is the book, “Divine Secrets of the Ya-Ya Sisterhood,'' which made the bestsell er list two years afte r publication without ever benefiting from a major ad campaign. Interest in the book was stimulated by book-

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27 discussion clubs that then inspired women to form their own “Ya-Ya Sisterhood'' groups. They also concluded that such books des cend the rankings more slowly than those propelled by exogenous shocks. Application of Book Popularity Literature Given the cultural history of diets discussed earlier in the literature review and the use of pamphlets and books to disseminate in formation about a particular diet to the general public, the book popularity literature he lps to define a method for representing the popularity of a book by using weekly bestselle r rankings. Additiona lly, the literature on the avenues by which books achieve bestsell er status are helpful in identifying the differences in popularity between the Atkins ’ and South Beach diet books. This body of literature also helps to lay initial gro undwork towards the first hypothesis, which involved investigating the existe nce of a “diet life cycle”. Life Cycle Theory According to Lilien and Kotler (1983), th e product life cycle model (PLCM) was developed originally to study the sales and profit patterns over time of branded products. According to the Blackwell Encyclopedic Dict ionary of Marketing, the product life cycle is based on the belief that most products go through a similar set of stages over their lives, much like living organisms and that as a product moves th rough the life cycle, marketing strategies may be adapted, although some products display a fad cycle that has no, or a short maturity phase. Johnson (2002) asserts that products, like people and other living things, have life cycles. He also notes that the PLCM is further identified as a managerial planning and control tool th at provides a conceptual framework for developing marketing objectives and strategies for different stages of a product's life. Dhalla and Yaspeth (1976) state that anothe r PLC is that of the growth-decline plateau,

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28 where the growth phase is followed by a part ial decline to a stable volume that is considerably lower than peak sales. As identified by Johnson, the PLCM can be divided into four stages: introduction, growth, maturity, and decline. He asserts th at these product life cycle stages vary in length since some new products take a long ti me to gain market acceptance and move into the growth stage, such as appliances and other durable goods, which tend to have long product life cycles. This is in contrast to other products such as toys, novelties, and fashions, which have relatively short life cy cles. In addition, J ohnson states that hightech products are also likely to have short life cycles due to the rapid advancement of technology causing many high-tech produc ts to become obsolete quickly. Applications and Modifications The PLCM offers a plausible explanation of the relationship between an economic unit and its market over time. Blank ( 2002) argues that although the model was developed originally to look at specific brand-name products or product lines, it can be extended to firms and to industries because those larger economic units also follow a growth and decline process that is base d in the results of sequential decisions. Blank uses the product life cycle mode l to develop a framework to answer questions regarding what lessons have been learned from the disappearances of certain industries. He asserts that entire industri es can and do disappear and that many of the industries that have virtually disappear ed from the American economy produce a commodity, implying that there is somethi ng about the structure of industries which makes it possible for those industries to disa ppear. He observes that the changes over a life span of an industry seem to follow a sim ilar pattern, and this pa ttern includes a series of time periods over which the total sales and profits of the economic unit first increase,

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29 peak, and then decline and in total, indicat es an analytical framework which evaluates economic performance over time, such as th e “product life cycle” model (PLCM), which he then modifies for use in analyzing th e American agriculture production industry. Heller (1999) discusses how companies have life cycles and how those life cycles are linked with products sold by a particular company. He suggests that what drives the life cycle of a company with regards to the popularity of brands and products is originality, which in turn provides opportunities for comp any growth. Heller suggests that downturns in the life cycle of compan ies may be due to company management, who are unable to adapt the company, and or pr oducts remain unchanged while markets move forward. Modis (1994) discusses life cycles in terms of “survival of the fittest,” and claims that the filling or the emptying of a nich e in a competitive environment follows an Sshaped pattern of natural growth. In such a pattern of growth, the rate of growth is greatest in the middle of the life cycle and th en diminishes as growth reaches saturation level. In his application of the li fe cycle theory, Modis fit S-curves to populations of computers, specifically a computer model th at was popular in the mid-1980s. When the analysis was first completed in 1985, he c oncluded that the product was phasing out, something that marketers denied vehemently at the time. Modis notes that these marketers spoke of plans to advertise and re package the product in order to boost sales, although when sales during the following three y ears were in line with his projections, he concluded that promotional activities, pric e changes, and competition in general were conditions present throughout a product's life cycle and would not change the course of a

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30 natural phasing-out process because these new programs were not significantly different from those of the past. With respect to co mputers, Modis notes that the use of the life cycle as a tool became complicated as new co mputer models began entering the market in rapid succession with little di fferentiation and that products which are well-positioned within a market niche are typica lly long-lived. To take into account the overlap effect of products within a product category and because life cycles of products are short and behave irregularly, Modis suggest s that growth-curves be used to describe a whole family of products or a whole generation of technology. Application of Life Cycle Theory Literature Given the first hypothesis of the study, to determine the existe nce of a “diet life cycle,” it is important to gain a clear unde rstanding of the theory which supports the Product Life Cycle concept. Additionally, th is area of the literature review provides examples of research in which the product li fe cycle has been modified in order to analyze, for example, a specific industry or trend. The body of theory does suggest the possibility of modifying the pr oduct life cycle concept in order to explain the relationship of some unit of analysis, for exam ple, health information over time. As suggested by Heller in the previous section, the life cycle may be based upon originality of an idea (or product). This statement is also supported by Modis, who suggests that longer-lived products are posi tioned within a niche market and that competing products (or ideas) entering the niche market will affect the longevity of the original product. This can be applied to th e idea that information about diets and dieting is a market in which information is demanded by consumers and supplied by doctors, corporations, the media, private individuals, et c. As information a bout a particular diet trend enters the marketplace, it does so with a certain degree of origin ality as compared to

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31 the replaced or previous dieting trends. As the demand for information relating to the dieting trend increases, competition floods the diet information market, eventually reaching a point of saturation, resulting in a loss of originality. The cycle repeats itself as a new and more original diet trend becomes popular and information about that diet trend is demanded and supplied, increasing to yet another point of saturation. In addition, the use of the lif e cycle theory applied to a “generation of technology,” such as the low-carbohydrate dieting trend, may be more useful than considering only the life cycle of a particular diet, such as the Atki ns or South Beach diet.

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32 CHAPTER 3 DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS A database was complied of newspaper and magazine articles on diets and dieting in the United States from 1995 through 2004. In addition, data from national bestseller lists were collected from 1996 through 2004. Th ese articles and best seller lists provide data that are related to the re search hypotheses: that dieting trends occur in cycles, such that they follow a cyclical pattern similar to the product life-cycle theory and that demand for orange juice is correlated with health -and diet-related information in the media. National and Regional Media Data Collection The content analysis method was used to collect, code, and analyze popular news media sources for articles relating to lowcarbohydrate diets and di eting. Newspapers and magazines were selected based on circul ation, a method similar to that which was used by the International Food Information Council Foundation (2003) in their report “Food for Thought.” Electronic Databases Data collection targeted arti cles that were printed in national and regional news sources and were available thr ough the University of Florida el ectronic library databases. During the data collection, three electronic data bases were used: Factiva for all regional and all but one national newspaper, ProQuest for the remaining national newspaper, and InfoTrac for all national magazines. Each of these database s allow for keyword searching within a specified date range and acce ss to full text versions of the articles meeting specified search criteria. Across these three databases there is no difference

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33 between truncation rules, which allow for vari ations of a keyword to be included in the search. This method is similar to the method em ployed by Breen (1997), who searched LexisNexis, a database similar to those used in this research, to collect newspaper articles in major papers from 1991 through 1994 by employing key search terms. Sampling In content analysis, the unit of analysis is an identifiable message or message component, which serves as the basis for: 1) identifying the popul ation and drawing a sample, (2) determining which variables are measured, and/or (3) which variables serve as the basis for reporting analyses. Units ca n be words, characters, themes, time periods, interactions, or any other result of “break ing up a ‘communication’ into bits” (Carney, 1971). The sampling for this analysis included a combination of sampling techniques. The first technique, stratified sampling, wa s used when selecting what news media sources were included in the analysis. The second technique employed was cluster sampling, in which articles containing esta blished keywords and printed from October 1995 through December 2004 were included in the analysis (Breen 1997). Duplicate articles and those unrelated to the topic of concern yielded by the various keyword searches were eliminated from the an alysis, as suggested by Riechert (1995). Data Collection For each newspaper or magazine, the appropr iate database was selected and using the database search engine, archives were searched for all articles published from October 1995 through December 2004 for each keyword string described below. Topical coding of articles was completed as articles were collected from th e electronic databases,

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34 by searching for keywords as found in the citati on or lead paragraph. The occurrence of a search term in each article’s citation or lead paragraph wa s used as an indication that the article was related to the topic of concern. All collected articles were also examined to ensure that duplicate and unr elated articles were eliminated from the analysis. Coding did not commence until after all the sampling was completed. Coding Articles were sorted and coded according to the type of publication (national newspaper, regional newspaper, or national magazine), source ( New York Times, Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Time Magazine, etc) and date published. Articles were then grouped into four-week interv als corresponding with the oran ge juice scanner purchase data collected from ACNielsen. This provided thirteen observations per year, with a total of 122 national observations from Oc tober 1995 through December 2004 and 105 regional observations from Ja nuary 1997 through December 2004. Time Periods Considered Articles from national newspapers and ma gazines were collected from October 1995 through December 2004, corresponding with the purchase data available from ACNielsen representing purchases of 100% orange juice at drug stores, mass merchandisers (i.e., Wal-Mart, Target, etc), a nd grocery stores with retail sales of two million dollars or more. Articles from regional newspapers were collected from January 1997 through December 2004. This time interval was selected in order to capture the frequency of media coverage immediately pr eceding the decline in purchases of orange juice in the southern region, continuing through 2004. Bestselle r rankings for “ Atkins’ New Diet Revolution ” were collected from January 1996 through December 2004, and

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35 from April 2003 through December 2004 for “ The South Beach Diet ,” both of which reflect the time intervals for which each book ap peared on the weekly bestseller lists. National Newspaper Analysis The five largest newspapers (in terms of circulation) with circulation over 1,000,000 were considered for this analysis. As reported by the Audit Bureau of Circulations, these newspapers are listed in Table 3.1. Table 3.1: Newspaper Ci rculation, Greater than 1 Million Copies Sold. Newspaper Location Circulation USA Today New York City, NY 2,665,815 Wall Street Journal New York City, NY 2,106,774 New York Times New York City, NY 1,680,583 Los Angeles Times Los Angeles, CA 1,292,274 Washington Post Washington, DC 1,007,487 Source: Audit Bureau of Circula tions (2004) “Top 150 Newspapers” According to the Factiva database, The Wall Street Journal is a national daily newspaper serving the business community with influential reports on companies, markets, politics and international news. Since it is primarily read by business professionals rather than th e general public, the Wall Street Journal was excluded. This condensed the analysis to four newspapers: the USA Today, The New York Times the Los Angeles Times, and the Washington Post. Keyword Search In order to collect articles concerni ng low-carbohydrate di eting printed from October 1995 through December 2004, keywords were used to capture all articles relating to low-carbohydrate diets. Articles from all national newspaper sources with the exception of the Los Angeles Times were co llected using the Factiva database. The ProQuest database was used to collect Los A ngeles Times articles. Keyword strings were used to search the headline a nd lead paragraph in Factiva an d the citation and abstract in

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36 ProQuest. Since articles were collected on the basis of an article’s t opical content, (i.e., low-carbohydrate diets), these tw o methods of searching the ar ticles returned comparable results. In both the Factiva and ProQue st databases, articles we re collected on one of two bases: 1) That the article contained the words low and any variations on the words carbohydrate and diet; 2) That th e article contained any varia tions of the word diet and either the term Atkins or South Beach. This second criterion was considered essential since many news articles were thought to provide information relating to the lowcarbohydrate dieting trend in a ddition to providing information about either of the two major diet plans associated with lowcarbohydrate dieting, Atkins or South Beach. These keywords were selected with re gards to the AP Stylebook and Briefing on Media Law, which notes that it is generally unacceptable to include slang words in a keyword search. The search terms, however, have been designed in such a way that articles including slang terms associated with the topic are also captured, i.e. “carb” instead of “carbohydrate.” Additionally, the te rm low was included so that only those articles relating to reduced-carbohydrate diet s were collected, rather than articles pertaining to high-car bohydrate diets (such as used by athletes). A summary of the national diet media covera ge data collection is provided in Table 3.2. This table also shows the number of arti cles collected for each search term and the total number of articles excluded within each newspaper source. Table A.1 in Appendix A lists the summary of arti cles collected by period fr om October 1995 through December 2004.

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37 Table 3.2: Summary of Nationa l Newspaper Data Collection Search Terms Publication Name low and “carb” and diet Atkins or South Beach and Diet Excluded: Duplicates, Un-Related Topic Total Sample USA Today 60 117 104 73 New York Times 80 110 72 118 Los Angeles Times 128 121 128 121 The Washington Post 61 74 61 74 Grand Total 329 422 365 386 National Magazine Analysis Magazines with the greatest paid circulati on and classified as general news, general health, female-specific, or male specific we re identified. According to the Magazine Publishers of America, the magazines with th e largest circulation in these categories are listed in Table 3.3. Table 3.3: Magazine Circ ulation, Highest Paid Circ ulation Within Category. Newspaper Category Circulation Time General News 4,104,284 Prevention General Health 3,275,411 Better Homes and Gardens Women 7,608,913 Men’s Health Men 1,686,195 Source: Magazine Publishers of America, (2004) Circulation Tr ends and Magazine Handbook Keyword Search In order to collect articles concerni ng low-carbohydrate di eting printed from January 1997 through December 2004, keywords were used to capture all articles relating to low-carbohydrate diets. Articles from a ll selected national magazine sources were collected using the InfoTrac da tabase and keyword strings we re used to search the full article text. As with the national newspaper search, artic les that met either of the following criteria were collected: 1) That the article contained the words low and any

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38 variation on the words carbohydrat e and diet; 2) That the arti cle contained any variation of the word diet and either th e term Atkins or South Beach. A summary of the data colle ction is provided in Table 3.4. This table also shows the number of articles collected for each search term and the number of articles excluded by magazine source. Table A.1 in Appendix A lists the summary of articles collected by period from October 1995 through December 2004. Table 3.4: Summary of Nationa l Magazine Data Collection Search Terms Publication Name low and “carb” and diet Atkins or South Beach and Diet Excluded: Duplicates, Un-Related Topic Total Sample Better Homes & Gardens 4 0 4 0 Time 13 9 4 18 Prevention 24 4 10 18 Men’s Health 29 4 11 22 Grand Total 70 17 29 58 Regional Newspaper Analysis In order to further test the hypothesis that demand for orange ju ice is correlated with health-and diet-related information in th e media, a regional ne wspaper analysis was conducted. In order to collect regional ne ws articles concerning low-carbohydrate dieting printed from January 1997 through December 2004, keywords were used to capture all articles relating to low-car bohydrate diets. The southern region was selected for the regional analysis since the region has historic ally had the highest consumption of orange juice and is the region closest in prox imity to the Florida citrus industry. According to AC Nielsen, the Southern region consists of 16 states: Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi Alabama, Georgia, Florida, Tennessee,

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39 Kentucky, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia, Delaware, and Maryland. The newspaper analysis only incl uded newspapers located in this defined geographic area. Newspapers were selected based on tota l circulation and newspapers with the largest circulation within the region were cons idered. The top five newspapers within the southern region geographical area that were available in full text through the University of Florida’s library database s are listed in Table 3.5. Table 3.5: Southern Regi on Newspaper Circulation. Newspaper Location Circulation Houston Chronicle Houston, TX 737,580 Atlanta Journal Consti tution Atlanta, GA 606,246 St. Petersburg Times St. Petersburg, FL 395,973 The Daily Oklahoman Oklahoma City, OK 288,948 The Times-Picayune New Orleans, LA 281,374 Source: Audit Bureau of Circula tions (2004) “Top 150 Newspapers” It is important to note that three of the newspapers with the highest circulation in the region were not available thr ough an electronic database at the University of Florida: The Miami Herald (circulation: 416,530), Fo rt Worth Star (cir culation: 326,803), and Charlotte Observer (circulation: 278,573). All three are owned by the same company, Knight-Ridder, and access restrictions are due to an agreement be tween the publisher and various electronic databases. Keyword Search Since observable decreases in orange juice consumption began in 1998, the regional analysis includes newspaper ar ticles printed from January 1997 through December 2004. In order to collect the arti cles concerning the low-carbohydrate diet trend, the keyword search terms used for the tw o previous analyses were also applied to the regional newspaper analysis. Since al l articles for the regional analysis were

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40 collected using the Factiva database, sampli ng was completed based on the occurrence of search terms in the headline and/or lead paragraph. A summary of the data colle ction is provided in Table 3.6. This table also shows the number of articles collected for each sear ch term and excluded by newspaper source. Table A.2 in Appendix A lists the summary of ar ticles collected in th e Southern region by period from January 1997 through December 2004. Table 3.6: Summary of Regional Newspape r Data Collection, January 1997 through December 2004 Search Terms Publication Name low and “carb” and diet Atkins or South Beach and Diet Excluded: Duplicates, Un-Related Topic Total Sample Houston Chronicle 112 70 70 113 Atlanta Journal Constitution 49 21 28 41 St. Petersburg Times 36 27 30 33 The Daily Oklahoman 3 0 0 3 The Times-Picayune 42 0 9 33 Grand Total 242 119 138 223 Book Popularity as Ranked on National Bestseller Lists Book popularity is generally measured by sa les. Summaries of which are published on a weekly basis by several organizations The most well-known and recognized bestseller list is published by The New York Times A second, well-known bestseller list is published by Publishers Weekly Data Collection Data from book rankings on The New York Times Bestseller List were compiled through the LexisNexis database by using a ke yword search to obtai n all bestseller lists published from January 1996 through December 2004. Information was collected for all diet books appearing on the bestse ller lists for the selected time period, with an emphasis

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41 on Dr. Robert Atkins’ “ Atkins’ New Diet Revolution ” and Dr. Arthur Agatston’s “ The South Beach Diet .” It is important to note that for Dr. Atkins’ New Diet Revolution and The South Beach Diet books, similar rankings may appear since the books were published in different formats, paperback and hardcover re spectively. Because of this difference, the two books appear on different bestseller list s, which accounts for why both books appear in the top bestseller position dur ing the same week. It is also important to note that The New York Times publishes several different topical best seller lists, althoug h the list that both the Atkins and South Beach diet books appe ar on is the “advise” bestseller list for either paperback or hardcover editions, respectively. Publishers Weekly Bestseller Lists According to the Scripps Howard News Service, Publishers Weekly bestseller lists are compiled from data from large-city booksto res, bookstore chains and local best-seller lists across the United States. Publisher’s Weekly provides over 10 “bestseller” lists, including: hardcover fiction and nonfiction; trade and mass market paperback; audio fiction and nonfiction; child ren’s picture books, fiction, a nd series; relig ion hardcover and paperback; and books most bo rrowed for both fiction and nonfiction. Data Collection Data from book rankings as published by Publisher’s Weekly were compiled through the Factiva database by using a keyword search to obtain all bestseller lists published from January 1996 through December 2004. Information was collected for all diet books appearing on the be stseller list during the sel ected time period, with an emphasis on Dr. Robert Atkins’ “ Atkins’ New Diet Revolution ” (see Table A.3 in

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42 Appendix A) and Dr. Arthur Agatston’s “ The South Beach Diet ” (see Table A.4 in Appendix A). Although Publishers Weekly maintains over ten bestse ller lists on the company website, the two sets of lists considered in this data collection differentiated books by type of cover and fiction or non-fiction. Th erefore, rankings on the Publisher’s Weekly paperback bestseller list for “Dr. Atkins Diet Revolution” are compared to sales for all other paperback titles and rankings for “ The South Beach Diet ” book are compared to all other hardcover non-fiction titles. Additional Data Collection Variables that will be considered for analysis in Chapter 5 include: purchases (PCGal), price (RP), gross rati ng point (GRP), field staff, and personal disposable income (PDINC). Summary tables for the nationa l and regional data collection for these varibales are in Appendix A, Tables A.5 and A.6, respectively. Each table displays the values for each variable per four-week pe riod. Specific details of each data set are provided in the following subsections. Purchases (Variable: PCGal) Orange juice scanner data were collected from ACNiel sen to represent purchases made within the United States and within the U.S. southern region. These data represent four-week periods beginning with the period ending on October 7, 1995 and include purchases made of 100% orange juice at mo st major outlets, including drug stores, mass merchandisers (i.e., Wal-Mart, Target, etc), a nd grocery stores with retail sales of two million dollars or more. Total expenditures and gallons purchased reflect all forms of 100% orange juice and includes reconstitu ted, not-from-concentrate, and frozen concentrate.

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43 Gallons purchased will be based upon sca nner data collected as described in the previous paragraph and placed on a per capita basis using population data collected by the U.S. Census Bureau. Gallons purchased per capita will be used in order to isolate the changes in individual purchase s overtime as compared to to tal purchases overtime. Per capita purchase data for the United States and southern region purchases are displayed in Appendix B, Tables B.1 and B.2, respectively. Limitations of Purchase Data According to the Florida Department of Citrus, the ACNielsen purchase estimates indicate volume sales in all ACNielsen retail outlets, which include s U.S. grocery store chains with sales greater than $2 million, Wa l-Mart stores (excluding Sam's Club), and mass merchandisers and drug stores with sales greater than $1 million. Hence, this data set does not include all consumer purchases, most notably consumer purchases at food service outlets (e.g., McDonalds, etc), sma ller grocery retail ch ains and convenience stores. A second data limitation regards how estimated consumption for a season is calculated. Some of the estimates used by the Florida Departme nt of Citrus are represented as the sum of Florida produc tion, other U.S. production, and U.S. imports minus the sum of U.S. exports, season be ginning Florida inventor y, and season ending Florida inventory. When considering the poten tial for measurement error, it is expected that Florida production and inve ntories and U.S. imports and exports are expected to be measured with little error. The error, however, in measurement becomes an issue when and how other U.S. state-by-st ate production is calculated, resulting in possi ble error in measurement which may be traced to the diffe rences between actual and average yields. In addition, non-Florida, U.S. inventories ar e excluded from these estimates because of

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44 missing data, which may at times result in more significant errors in presumed consumption. When averaging estimated consumption ove r a few years, however, the magnitude of these errors may decrease to the extent that net non-Fl orida inventories (beginning minus ending inventories) average near zero over the pe riod in question. Although the issue as to which source s hould be used for determining estimated consumption still exists with in the Florida citrus industr y, for the purposes of this research, purchase data colle cted by ACNielsen in the form of purchase scanner data collected from outlets, as described in th e previous section, are used for a proxy of consumer purchases of orange juice. Price (Variable: RP) For the purposes of this research, reta il prices are estimated by computing a weighted average based upon indi vidual expenditures and purchases for each form of 100% orange juice (Equation 3.1), where the we ight is defined by market share for each product form. This is to account for the sh ift in purchasing pref erences from frozen concentrated and reconstituted products to not -from-concentrate produc ts. To adjust for inflation, the calculated weighted price was transformed by deflati ng it by the Consumer Price Index (Base Year = 1984). National a nd southern region qua ntity purchased and purchase price for each product form are disp layed in Appendix B, Tables B.3 and B.4, respectively. To simplify the assumptions fo r this study, it is assume d that the popularity of the low-carbohydrate diet will affect all product forms equally.

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45 tototototooooP'=((Q1*P1)+(Q2*P2)+(Q3*P3)+(Q4*P4))/(Q1+Q2+Q3+Q4) (3.1) Where, Q1 is the quantity of Frozen C oncentrated Orange Juice, per period, P1 is the price for Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice, per gallon, Q2 is the quantity of Not-from-Concentrate Orange Juice, per period, P2 is the price for Not-from-Con centrate Orange Juice, per gallon, Q3 is the quantity of Reconsti tuted Orange Juice, per period, P3 is the price for Reconstituted Con centrated Orange Juice, per gallon, Q4 is the quantity purchased for Shel f Stable Orange Juice per period, and P4 is the price for Shelf Stable Orange Juice per period. Gross Rating Point (Variable: GRP) According to a Nielsen Media Research glossary, the Gross Rating Point (GRP) is a unit of measurement of audience size. It is used to measure the exposure to one or more programs or commercials, without re gard to multiple exposures of the same advertising to individuals. See Table A.5 and A.6 for values of estimated GRP’s for orange juice promotions and adver tisements during the period of study. This information was included in the regr ession analysis to help further explain changes in orange juice purchases that mi ght be attributed to television and radio programs or commercials paid for by the Florida Department of Citrus. Field Staff (Variable: FieldStaff) The Florida Department of Citrus field staff who worked with retailers and food service providers to promote Florida citrus and helped retailers in the areas of merchandising, in-store promotions, as well as with category management such as allocating shelf space. They also helped coor dinate Florida Department of Citrus generic advertising with retailer promotions. Sin ce March 2001, the field staff has largely been eliminated. In this analysis, the existence of field staff will be represented by a dummy variable. The variable will have a value e qual to 1 for October 1995 through February 2001 and a value equal to 0 for March 2001 through January 2005.

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46 Personal Disposable Income (Variable PCINC) Personal disposable income is monthly income less taxes and was obtained from the U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis by the Florida Department of Citrus. Since orange juice is not considered a necessi ty item, it is assumed that purchases of orange jui ce are paid for with a household’s disposable income. In order to account for inflation, aggregate persona l disposable income was first deflated by the Consumer Price Index (Base Year = 1984) and then placed on a per capita basis by dividing by population (U.S. and s outhern region, respectively) as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau. Table B.1 and B.2 list the va lues of this variable for both the U.S. and the Southern region. This information was useful in the regr ession analysis to help further explain changes in orange juice purchases that might be attributed to changes in disposable household income, especially since disposab le household income has increased over time.

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47 CHAPTER 4 LIFE CYCLE HYPOTHESIS One hypothesis identified for this research project was to determine whether or not dieting trends occur in cycles, such that th ey follow a cyclical pattern similar to the product life-cycle theory. To test this hypothesis, the Pr oduct Life Cycle theory is applied to the data collected for orange juice per capita purchases (both regional and national) and the data collect ed during the content analys is of national and regional newspaper and/or magazine ar ticles and the book rankings for “ Atkins’ New Diet Revolution ” and “ The South Beach Diet ” books as reported by The New York Times and Publisher’s Weekly. Product Life Cycle Theory As discussed in Chapter 2, Lilien and Kotler (1983) state that the product life cycle model (PLCM) was developed originally to study the sales and profit patterns over time of branded products. According to Johnson ( 2002), the PLCM can be divided into four stages: introduction, growth, ma turity, and decline and that these product life cycle stages vary in length. Blank (2002) argues that a lthough the model was develope d originally to look at specific products or product lines, it can be extended to firms and to industries. He modified the PLCM for use in analyzing the U.S. agriculture industry with regards to economic performance overtime.

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48 Diet Life Cycle Hypothesis 1 stated, “Dieting trends occu r in cycles, such that they follow a cyclical pattern similar to th e product life-cycle theory.” In order to determine whether or not dieting trends follow a pattern simila r to the PLCM, the fre quency of articles and rankings of book popularity will be graphed. To determine th e existence of a life cycle curve, the following parameters are used to define the phases of th e life cycle for dietrelated information in newspapers and magazines. The introduction phase will be character ized by little to minimum number of articles printed each four-week period. As th e frequency of articles increases, the life cycle will shift into the growth phase, wh ich will be characterized by the increasing frequency at an increasing rate of topically-rel ated articles for the given time period. As the inflection point is reached where frequency of articles is still increasing but now at a decreasing rate, the maturity phase begins and continues un til the frequency of articles per period peaks. This will then lead to the decline phase, in which the frequency of articles printed each four-week period decrease s to a frequency either equal to or less than the beginning of the introduction phase. Like most trends and fads, determining how to measure or track the life cycle of a diet is a challenge since a di eting trend may impact many di fferent components of society and may be associated with both negative and positive impacts upon various industries. The impact of a dieting trend upon an industry seems evident considering the most recent low-carbohydrate dieting trend. Diet trends in general capture public atte ntion through print (med ia, books, etc) and by word of mouth, which seems especially true considering th e recent low-carbohydrate trend. MacInnis, et al (1991) defined health motivation as the consumer’s willingness to

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49 perform and interest in performing said heal th behaviors, such as dieting and weight reduction. Therefore, willingness to adjust h ealth behaviors due to diet media coverage found in books and newspaper or magazine articles relating to the low-carbohydrate dieting trend may be a proxy for the effect of diet media coverage upon a particular industry. In addition, Moorman and Matulich’s (1993) resear ch discovered that health motivation increases the amount of diet info rmation acquired from media sources but not information acquired from casual sources, such as friends and family. Therefore, this research project involve s defining diet media coverage as that which is obtained from media articles and books. Source of Diet Information: Newspapers and Magazines As described in Chapter 3, media articles were collected electronically by using journal databases available th rough the University of Florida library system. Articles selected were related to the general topic of low-carbohydrate diets, the Atkins diet, or The South Beach Diet As elaborated in Chapter 3, a total of 667 articles published from October 1995 through December 2004 were collected for the United States and the southern region, from magazine and newspape r sources. Articles were coded by date and separated according to fou r-week periods (13 periods, annually), which corresponded with the available data set on the co nsumer purchases of orange juice. Of the total articles collected (U.S. and Southern region), 76.1% were printed from November 2002 through December 2004. Th e two four-week periods corresponding with January and February 2004 boasted the la rgest number of topically-related articles, accounting for 13.6% of the total articles collected. On aver age, 5.5 articles topicallyrelating to low-carbohydrate diets, the Atkins di et, or South Beach diet were printed per

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50 four-week period, although ther e are some 4-week periods when no articles were collected. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30O c t-95 Apr-96 O c t-96 Apr-97 O c t-97 Apr-98 Oc t-9 8 Ap r-9 9 Oc t-9 9 Ap r-0 0 Oc t-0 0 Ap r-0 1 Oc t-0 1 Ap r-0 2 Oc t-0 2 Ap r-0 3 Oc t-0 3 Apr-04 Oc t-0 4Four-Week PeriodsFrequency of National Articles Figure 4.1: Total Media Articles (January 1995 through December 2004) For those articles collected from national newspaper and magazine sources, a total of 444 topically-related articles were found, with an average of 3.6 articles per four week period. As indicated in Figure 4.1, a high concentration of articles (74.3%) were published in national news papers and magazines from November 2002 through December 2004 and the two four-week periods with the highest frequency of articles were January and February 2004 (12.2% of the total articles collected ). In relation to Hypothesis 1, the graph of total media articles does appear to indica te the presence of a crude approximation of a life cycle curve. This may also serve as an indication of a diet life cycle if the frequency of national newspape r and magazine articles are an appropriate proxy for measuring the popularity of a die ting trend by actual dieting consumers.

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51 0 5 10 15 20 25 30O c t-95 Apr-96 O c t-96 Apr-97 O c t-97 Apr-98 Oc t-9 8 Ap r-9 9 Oc t-9 9 Ap r-0 0 Oc t-0 0 Ap r-0 1 Oc t-0 1 Ap r-0 2 Oc t-0 2 Ap r-0 3 Oc t-0 3 Apr-04 Oc t-0 4Four-Week PeriodsFrequency of National News Articles Figure 4.2: National Newspaper Articl es (October 1995 through December 2004) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8Oct-95 Apr-96 Oct-96 Apr-97 Oct-97 Apr-98 Oct-98 Apr-99 Oct-99 Apr-00 Oct-00 Apr-01 Oct-01 Apr-02 Oct-02 Apr-03 Oct-03 Apr-04 Oct-04Four-Week PeriodsFrequency of Magazine Articles Figure 4.3: National Magazine Article s (October 1995 through December 2004) Of the total articles collec ted from U.S. media sources, 386 articles were collected from national newspaper sources and 58 from na tional magazine sources. As indicated in Figure 4.2, high concentrations of newspape r articles (76.4%) were printed from November 2002 through December 2004 and th e two four-week periods corresponding with the highest frequency of articles ( 13.8%) occurred during January and February 2004.

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52 The frequency of national newspaper articl es over time also appears to follow a crude approximation of a life cycle curve, as described in the previous section. Considering the four general ph ases of a life cycle, it appear s that the introduction phase of the cycle is the longest in duration a nd occurs from October 1996 through June 2002, followed by the growth phase, which appear s to occur from July 2002 through December 2004. The maturity phase, which concludes in the four-week period in which the number of articles printed per period reaches the maximum frequency, occurs from January though June 2004. Finally, the decline phase occurs from July 2004 through January 2005 (see Table A.1 in Appendix A for frequency of diet media coverage collected from national newspapers and magazines). As indicated in Figure 4.3, a high concentr ation of articles collected from national magazines (60.34%) were printed from Nove mber 2002-December 2004, 16.1% less than the percentage of articles pub lished by national newspapers dur ing the same time period. Since magazine articles were printed on a mont hly to bimonthly basis, it is not surprising to note that an average of 0.5 articles was pr inted each four-week period. Also indicated in Figure 4.2, the two four-week periods co rresponding with the highest frequency of magazine articles collected ( 15.6% of total) occurred during July and August 2004. This is a difference of five months when compar ed to the two month period with the highest frequency of both total news articles a nd national newspaper articles collected. Similar to the trends of national newspape r articles, the trend of national magazine articles also appears to follow an introduc tion, growth, maturity, and decline, although the phases do not occur during the same time periods. The introduction phase for diet media coverage as collected from national magazine articles occu rs from October 1995

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53 through July 2003 and is 13 periods longer than the introduction phase for national newspaper articles. The growth phase is also similar to that of th e diet media coverage collected from national newspapers and o ccurs from August 2003 through January 2004. This is followed by the maturity phase, whic h occurs during the tw o four-week periods corresponding with July and August 2004, which is shorter in duration when compared with the maturity phase of national newspaper articles. Lastly, the decline phase for diet media coverage as collected from national magazines occurs from September 2004 though January 2005. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20O c t-95 Apr-96 O c t-96 Apr-97 O c t-97 Apr-98 Oc t-9 8 Ap r-9 9 Oc t-9 9 Ap r-0 0 Oc t-0 0 Ap r-0 1 Oc t-0 1 Ap r-0 2 Oc t-0 2 Ap r-0 3 Oc t-0 3 Apr-04 Oc t-0 4Four-Week PeriodsFrequency of Regional News Articles Figure 4.4: Regional Newspa per Articles (January 1995 through December 2004) As indicated in Figure 4.4, of the 223 ar ticles collected from Southern region newspaper sources, a high concentration (79.7% ) of articles were printed from November 2002-December 2004, which is 3.3% more than the number of national news articles printed during the same period. Additionally, Figure 4.4 shows that the two four-week periods in which the highest frequency of re gional newspaper articl es (13.8%) occurred during January and February 2004. This is th e same two month period with the highest frequency of news articles collect ed from national newspaper sources.

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54 The frequency of articles collected from southern region newspapers also appears to follow a trend similar to that displayed in Figure 4.2 for national newspapers. The introduction phase for diet media coverage collected from southern region newspapers occurs from October 1995 through August 2003, 21 periods longer than the introduction phase for national newspaper articles. The growth phase follows and appears to occur from March 2003 through December 2004, repres enting eight four-week period which is shorter in duration than the growth phase for diet media coverage collected from national newspaper articles. However, this phase doe s terminate for both sets of data during the same four-week period (December 2004). The maturity phase for diet media coverage collected from regional newspapers appear s to occur from January and September 2004, which concludes two months later than the maturity phase for national newspaper articles, but only one month later than the matu rity phase for national magazine articles. Finally, the decline phase occurs from October 2004 though January 2005 (see Table A.2 for frequency of regional news articles collected for each four-week period). Source of Diet Information: Diet Books A second source of diet information is diet books. These books are generally written by an individual or group of individuals recognized as doctors of medicine or health experts, such as Dr. Robert Atkins author of “Atkins New Diet Revolution” (published in 1992) and Dr. Ar thur Agatston, author of “ The South Beach Diet ” (published in 2003). Because book sale information is not cons idered public information, a second best proxy for book popularity, and perhaps diet popu larity, are book bestseller status as determined by national bestseller lists. The most recognized bestseller list is the list published by The New York Times Although it is the most recognized and represents

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55 over 4,000 bookstores plus wholesalers serving 5 0,000 other retailers, this bestseller list might not be the best proxy for book popularit y, since rankings are collected based on a list of pre-selected poten tial bestsellers compiled by The New York Times which is then ranked according to sales by bookstores and warehouses. Additionally, books are ranked by type of book and therefore rankings might not account for the popularity of the diet book as compared to other fiction and non-fiction best sellers. For The New York Times Bestseller List, books about diets and wei ght loss are generally ranked on the “advise, how-to, and miscellaneous” bestseller list. A second bestseller list, published by Publishers Weekly may serve as a better proxy of book popularity, since book rankings are compiled using sales rankings submitted by large-city bookstores, bookstore chai ns and local best-seller lists across the United States. Additionally, books ranked by Publishers Weekly are only separated by the type of binding used, hardcover or paper back, and whether the book is classified as fiction or non-fiction. Th erefore, rankings on the Publisher’s Weekly paperback bestseller list for “Dr. Atkins Diet Revolu tion” are compared to sales for all other paperback non-fiction titles and rankings for “ The South Beach Diet ” book are compared to all other hardcover non-fi ction titles. For these reas ons, the weekly bestselling rankings reported by Publisher’s Weekly are us ed as the primary proxy of diet popularity with regards to diet books as sources for diet information. Atkins New Diet Revolution As previously noted, Dr. Robe rt Atkins first published hi s low-carbohydrate diet in 1972. In 1992, Atkins’ republished his low-ca rbohydrate diet plan under the title, “ Atkins’ New Diet Revolution .” Since 1996 this book has become a bestseller and has led

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56 a new generation of dieters on the quest to reduce weight by reducing carbohydrate intake and increasing protein and fat intake. Using the rankings published by Publishers Weekly to proxy book (and perhaps diet) popularity, it appears that popularity for the low-carbohy drate diet was bimodal, indicating that the popula rity of the low-carbohydrate diet as influenced by Atkins’ diet book occurred twice, from December 1996 through December 2000 and again from December 2001 through December 2003. 0 3 6 9 12 154/28/96 8/ 2 8/ 9 6 12/28/96 4/28/97 8/28/ 9 7 12/28/97 4/28/ 9 8 8/28/98 12 / 28 / 98 4 / 28/99 8 / 28/99 12 / 28 / 99 4 / 28 / 00 8/28/00 12 /2 8 /0 0 4/28/01 8/28/01 12 / 28 /0 1 4/28/02 8/ 2 8/ 02 12/28/02 4/ 2 8/ 0 3 8/28/03 12/28/03Week EndingBestseller Ranking Figure 4.5: Atkins’ New Diet Revolution Weekly Rankings, Publishers Weekly Bestseller List (April 28, 1996 through December 28, 2003) According to the Publisher’s Weekly best seller list (Figure 4.5), Atkins’ book did not achieve the top bestseller status until Ma rch 1998, 60 weeks after first appearing on the bestseller list and then fell from the bestseller list 58 weeks after being ranked in the top bestseller position for eight weeks fr om February 28, 1999 through April 18, 1999. For the second rise in book popul arity, achieving top bestseller status took only 40 weeks, 20 less than before. The declin e in book popularity also occurr ed over the span of several weeks, falling from the bestseller list 21 w eeks after being ranked the top non-fiction

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57 bestseller position for 23 weeks from December 15, 2002 through May 11, 2003. After January 2004, the Atkins’ book was no l onger ranked in the top 15 of the Publishers Weekly Bestseller Lists. 0 1 2 3 4 5 64 /28 /1 9 9 6 8/28 / 19 9 6 12 / 2 8 /1 9 9 6 4/ 2 8/1997 8 /2 8/1 9 9 7 12 / 2 8 /1 9 9 7 4 /2 8/1998 8/28/1998 1 2 /28/ 1 998 4/28 /1 9 9 9 8/ 2 8/1999 1 2 / 2 8/ 1 9 9 9 4 /2 8/2 0 00 8 /28 /2 0 0 0 12/28/2000 4 /2 8/2 0 01 8/28 /2 0 0 1 1 2 / 2 8/ 2 0 0 1 4/28/2002 8 /2 8/2 0 02 12 /2 8 /2 0 0 2 4/ 2 8/2003 8/28 / 20 0 3 1 2 /28/2003Week EndingBestseller Ranking Figure 4.6: Atkins’ New Diet Revolution Weekly Rankings, New York Times (April 28, 1996 through December 28, 2003) Rankings for Atkins’ diet book on The New York Times Bestseller List (see Figure 4.6), while following a similar pattern as the Pu blisher’s Weekly bestseller list, does not form as uniform of a pattern. According to this list, Atkins’ diet book first appeared on the bestseller list in April 1996, eight months prior to the book’s first appearance on the Publisher’s Weekly bestseller li st. It is also interesting to note that Atkins’ diet book was ranked in The New York Times top bestseller position thr oughout most of 1999, with the exception of weeks during which holidays such as Valentine’s Day, Mother’s Day, and Father’s Day occurred. During those week s, books from the popular series, “Chicken Soup for the Soul” were ranked in the top be stseller position. Af ter February 2004, the Atkins book was no longer ranked on The New York Times Bestseller Lists. Given the slow rise and decline in popul arity for Atkins’ diet book as indicated by the Publishers Weekly data, it appears that the boo k’s popularity increased due to

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58 cascades of tiny, endogenous shocks, such as casual recommendations (friends and family). Sornette, et al (2004) indicate th at such books also descend the rankings more slowly than those propelled by exogenous s hocks, which also app ears true given the information displayed in Figures 4.5 and 4.6. Since endogenous shocks are primarily from casual recommendations, it is not possible to determine whether or not these shocks did occur and influence book popularity. It is also possible that exogenous shocks occasionally caused other books to be ranked above Atkins’ diet book, but because of the nature of these shocks, Atkins’ book was able to repeatedly re-emerge as the t op ranked book for an extended period of time. This type of interaction might explain some of the variability in the “life-cycle” curves, displayed in Figures 4.5 and 4.6. 0 2 4 6 8 10 124/27/03 5/27/03 6/27/03 7/27/03 8/27/03 9/27/03 10/27/03 11/27/03 12/27/03 1/27/04 2/27/04 3/27/04 4/27/04 5/27/04 6/27/04 7/27/04 8/27/04 9/27/04 10/27/04 11/27/04Week EndingBestseller Ranking Figure 4.7: The South Beach Diet Weekly Rankings, Publishers Weekly (April 27, 2003 through December 12, 2004) Publisher’s Weekly bestseller rankings for Dr. Agatston’s “South Beach Diet” book are shown in Figure 4.7. Using these rankings to proxy book (and perhaps diet) popularity, it appears that popularity for The South Beach Diet book also follows a curve

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59 reminiscent of the product life cycle curve. Book popularity rose to the top bestseller position only four weeks after first appearing on the bestseller list in April 2003, the same month the book was published. The book began its descent from the list only 27 weeks after having been ranked at the t op of the list for 54 weeks. 0 1 2 3 4 54/27/2003 5/27/2003 6/27/2003 7/27/2003 8/27/2003 9/27/2003 10/27/2003 11/27/2003 12/27/2003 1/27/2004 2/27/2004 3/27/2004 4/27/2004 5/27/2004 6/27/2004 7/27/2004 8/27/2004 9/27/2004 10/27/2004 11/27/2004Week EndingBestseller Ranking Figure 4.8: The South Beach Diet Weekly Rankings, New York Times (April 27, 2003 through December 19, 2004) Weekly bestseller rankings assi gned for Agatston’s diet book by The New York Times are displayed in Figure 4.8. These rankings do not seem to follow a pattern similar to the rankings from Publisher’s Weekly, w ith the exception that the book did rise and decline quickly from the best seller list. According to The New York Times bestseller list, the book first reached the top of the bestse ller list in May 2003 four weeks after publication release and having fi rst appeared on the bestseller list. The book remained a New York Times bestseller from July 2003 through September 2003, October through November 2003, and from January through Fe bruary 2004. However, rather than declining in the bestseller rankings, the “S outh Beach Diet” book immediately fell from the top bestseller position and permanently off the bestseller list in February 2004.

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60 Given the abrupt rise and decline in popularity for Agatston’s diet book, it seems that the book’s popularity increa sed due to exogenous shocks de scribed by Sornette, et al as a major media announcement, a celebrity endorsement, or a dignitary's death. Horovitz (2004) did note that The South Beach Diet was endorsed by celebrities such as Bette Midler, Nicole Kidman and former Presid ent Bill Clinton. Sornette, et al indicated that book popularity motivated by exogenous shocks experience an instant rise in sales is followed by a fairly quick decline, which a ppears to be the case in Figures 4.6 and 4.7. Conclusions The hypothesis was that dieting trends occur in cycles. For this study, an attempt to determine whether or not a diet life cycle exis ts was tested by examining the prevalence of diet information as found in newspapers, magazines, and books. The graphs of trends representing the frequency of newspape r and magazine articles and book popularity, however, do not strongly support the hypothesis that dieting tre nds occur in cycles. The evidence, as presented, is inconclusive and the hypothesis need not be rejected, since some observations about bestseller rankings, newspaper and magazine articles hint at cyclical patterns. This result may be due in part to the time period length selected for the study. This conclusion suggests the need for furthe r research on whether diets do or do not occur in cycles, and on what information relatin g to diets does or does not define the life cycle of a diet. Further analysis of additional newspaper and magazine sources or other sources of diet media coverage may better defi ne the life cycle of a diet and be more accurate measures of this phenomenon.

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61 CHAPTER 5 DIET MEDIA COVERAGE AND PURCHASES HYPOTHESIS The main purpose of this ch apter is test the hypothesis that diet trends have impacted the purchases of orange juice. In the first section of this chapter, trends in diet media coverage and purchases of orange juic e are investigated. In the second section a demand equation for orange juice in the United States is estimated, taking into consideration the effect that diet media coverage, specifically low-carbohydrate diet media coverage, has had upon per capita purchases of 100% orange juice. Trends in Diet Media Coverage and P er Capita Purchases of Orange Juice To compare trends in diet media coverage and per capita purchases of orange juice, data were represented as cumulative tota ls for each year included in the study. U.S. Diet Media Coverage and Orange Juice Purchases Figure 5.1 represents the annual cumulative U.S. per capita purchases of orange juice and diet media coverage in nationa l newspapers from 1996 through 2004. When orange juice purchases decreased from 3.12 ga llons per capita in 1998 to 3.05 gallons, the number of newspaper articles topically rela ted to low-carbohydrate diets increased from 4 to 15 articles, respectively. A similar trend occurred from 2000 through 2004; annual per capita orange juice purchases decreased by 12.3% while newspaper articles about lowcarbohydrate diets increased by 700%. This indicat es that decreases in U.S. orange juice purchases are negatively correlated with increa ses in diet media cove rage relating to lowcarbohydrate diets as printed in U.S. newspape rs. Yet to be proven is whether this correlation is spurious or causal.

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62 2.50 2.60 2.70 2.80 2.90 3.00 3.10 3.20 Time (Annual)U.S. Purchases (PC gallons)0 50 100 150 200 250U.S. Newspaper Articles Purchases 2.983.093.123.053.103.072.992.862.72 News Articles 2341524192794192 199619971998199920002001200220032004 Figure 5.1: U.S. Per Capita Orange Juice Purchases and Newspaper Articles on LowCarbohydrate Diets and Die ting, Annual (1996 through 2004) Annual totals of U.S. per capita orange juice purchases and frequency of national magazine articles from 1996 through 2004 are displayed in Figure 5.2. U.S. per capita purchases of orange juice began declini ng in 2000, a year when there was only one magazine article identified in the database. As per capita purchases of orange juice continued to decrease (12.3% by 2004), the freq uency of magazine articles continued to increase, resulting in a total of 22 magazine articles in 2004. The information displayed in Figure 5.2 indicates that de creases of U.S. orange juice purchases negatively correlate with increases in diet media coverage about low-carbohydrat e diets in national magazines. Again, the potential causality (i .e., articles led to decreased purchases) can not be proven, but the correlation su ggests that this is possible.

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63 2.50 2.60 2.70 2.80 2.90 3.00 3.10 3.20 Time (Annual)U.S. Purchases (PC gallons)0 5 10 15 20 25U.S. Magazine Articles Purchases 2.983.093.123.053.103.072.992.862.72 Magazine Articles 44151191122 199619971998199920002001200220032004 Figure 5.2: U.S. Per Capita Orange Jui ce Purchases and Magazine Articles on LowCarbohydrate Diets and Die ting, Annual (1996 through 2004) Southern Region Diet Media Cov erage and Orange Juice Purchases The information displayed in Figure 5.3 re presents the annual cumulative Southern region per capita purchases of orange juice and newspaper articles found from 1997 through 2004. Similar to the comparison of U. S. per capita orange juice purchases and newspaper articles, Southern region per capita purchases of orange juice began declining in 2001. From 2001 through 2004, regional orange juice purchases decreased by 30.20% and regional diet coverage in newspapers in creased from 2 articles in all of 2001 to 122 articles in all of 2004. This indicates that decreases in Southern region orange juice purchases are negatively correlated with di et media coverage by regional newspapers, and that there may be a direct causal link between the two trends.

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64 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 Time (Annual)Southern Region Purchases (PC gallons ) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140Southern Region Newspaper Articles Purchases 3.183.233.163.173.102.542.382.16 News Articles 3961221652122 199619971998199920002001200220032004 Figure 5.3: Southern Region Orange Juice Purchases and Newspaper Articles, Annual (1997 through 2004). The Base Model, U.S. Orange Juice Demand In order to estimate demand for orange juice by incorporating a diet media coverage variable, variables that may also be necessary to explain vari ations in per capita purchases of orange juice must first be considered. As discussed in Chapter 3, the explanatory variables include in the base model are price, gr oss rating point, field staff, and per capita disposable income. In order to incorporate the e ffect of diet media coverage, a diet variable will be construc ted and defined by the frequency of diet coverage in newspapers and magazi nes within each four-week period. The United States retail purchases of ora nge juice data is the proxy used for the model’s dependent variable, U.S. consumer demand for orange juice. The demand of orange juice is expressed as: 12RP, DC, DC,GRP, ST, PCINC, P2...P13 Df 5.1 Where RP is the real weighted pr ice per gallon of orange juice, DC1 is diet media coverage coll ected from national newspapers, DC2 is diet media coverage collected from national magazines, ST is a dummy variable representing the existence of FDOC field staff,

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65 PCINC is personal disposable income on a per capita basis, and P2 through P13 are seasonal dummy variable s representing the 13 four-week periods annually, with the first four weeks of January as the base refere nce for P2 through P13. Real weighted price is included, since the model is being used to estimate consumer demand for orange juice and typically price is an explanatory variable included in demand equations. The weighted price, how ever, is used to account for the differences in price and market share acr oss the four orange juice pr oduct forms: Reconstituted, Notfrom-Concentrate, Frozen Concentrate, and Shelf Stable. Diet media coverage is split between two variables, representing the frequency of articles representing diet cove rage for newspapers and magazines, respectively. These explanatory variables are incl uded to determine whether such information has an effect upon per capita orange juice purchases and to test the second hypothesis. GRP represents the number of Gross Rati ng Points, which is a measurement of exposure to one or more media programs or co mmercials. This explanatory variable was included to determine whether informati on about orange juice portrayed through television and radio programs or commercials has an effect upon per capita purchases and explains some variation in the dependent variable. The dummy variable for field staff represen ts the existence of field staff as funded by the Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC). Field staff helped retailers in the area of merchandising, in-store promotions, and category management in addition to coordinating FDOC generic advertising with in-store promotions. The field staff was largely eliminated in March 2001 and their ex istence or non-existen ce may explain some variation in the purchases of orange juice.

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66 As mentioned in Chapter 3, orange juice is not considered an item of necessity and purchases are therefore assume d to be taken from a household’s discretionary income. Given that household income is a factor for determining consumers most likely to purchase orange juice, change s in per capita disc retionary income may explain some variation in the purchases of orange juice. Empirical Results, Steps Taken to Determ ine Best Base Model of Orange Juice Demand The demand equation was expressed in per capita terms and followed a linear functional form. The resulting model explai ned over 91% of the va riation in retail purchases. When the Durbin-Watson test was used to test for autocorrelation, however, the statistic indicated that the residuals from the base model had significant positive autocorrelation (DW=0.417, DWL= 1.38190, DWU=2.04892). The first step taken to correct for the presence of significant positive autocorrelation was to remove the insignifi cant variables from th e base model (gross rating points and magazine diet coverage). The resulting model explained over 91% of the variation in retail purchases. When the Durbin-Watson test was used to test for autocorrelation, however, the statistic indicate d that the residuals from the base model had significant positive au tocorrelation (DW=0.41, DWL= 1.38190, DWU=2.04892). The next step taken to correct for the continued presence of autocorrelation involved applying the Cochran-Orcutt method. Habit persistence, which allows for the effect of purchases in the previous time period upon current demand for orange juice, was included as a variable in the modified base model (PCGAL1). Add itionally, insignificant variables from the base model were remove d from the model in order to isolate the

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67 impact of significant explanatory variables upon purchases of orange juice. This modified base model was used in both the U.S. and Southern region analysis. The Adjusted Base Model, U.S. Orange Juice Demand The explanatory variables in cluded in the model of U.S. consumer demand for orange juice were: price, newspaper diet media coverage, field staff, per capita disposable income, and per capita purchases of or ange juice in the previous period. The United States retail purchases of ora nge juice data set from ACNielsen is the proxy used for the model’s dependent variable, U.S. consumer demand for orange juice. The demand of orange juice is expressed as: t-1RP, DC, ST, PCINC, PCGAL, P2...P13tDf (5.2) Where RP is the real weighted pr ice per gallon of orange juice, DC is national newspaper diet media coverage, ST is a dummy variable representing the existence of FDOC field staff, PCINC is personal disposable income on a per capita basis, PCGALt-1 is the dependent variable (per capita purchases of orange juice) lagged by one period, and P2 through P13 are seasonal dummy variable s representing the 13 four-week periods annually, with the first four weeks of January as the base refere nce for P2 through P13. Variables are as described in previous sections, with th e exception of the explanatory variable representing per capita orange juice purchases from the previous period (PCGALt-1). This variable is included in th e model to represen t the likelihood that an individual will not change purchase habits of orange juice from period to period. An exception to this would be when purchase deci sions are influenced by some factor, such as diet media coverage, and causes a consum er to not purchase orange juice, although orange juice.

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68 Empirical Results, U.S. Orange Juice Demand The demand equation was expressed in per capita terms and followed a linear functional form. The resulting model (Table 5.1) explained over 96% of the variation in retail purchases and all the parameters had th e expected signs. For the SAS program used to estimate the elasticity, regressions, and correlation analyses, refer to Appendix C1. Table 5.1: Estimated Model Results of U.S. Per Capita Orange Juice Demand Variable Description Parameter Std Error t-Statistic Intercept 0.1150.016 7.33 PCGAL1 Dependent Variable (t-1) 0.6410.053 12.20 RP Real Price -0.0080.001 -5.79 PDINC Disposable Income 58.50210.600 5.52 DC Newspaper Diet Medi a Coverage -0.00020.0001 -3.14 ST Field Staff 0.0040.001 3.60 P2 Period 2 Dummy Variable -0.0190.002 -10.24 P3 Period 3 Dummy Variable -0.0090.002 -6.45 P4 Period 4 Dummy Variable -0.0180.002 -10.39 P5 Period 5 Dummy Variable -0.0160.002 -9.79 P6 Period 6 Dummy Variable -0.0160.002 -8.14 P7 Period 7 Dummy Variable -0.0160.002 -7.40 P8 Period 8 Dummy Variable -0.0120.002 -5.00 P9 Period 9 Dummy Variable -0.0080.002 -4.41 P10 Period 10 Dummy Variable -0.0080.002 -4.45 P11 Period 11 Dummy Variable -0.0110.002 -6.48 P12 Period 12 Dummy Variable -0.0080.002 -4.77 P13 Period 13 Dummy Variable -0.0060.001 -4.32 Total R2 0.9649 Regress R2 0.9649 Durbin-h 0.5641 Pr > h 0.2864 The relationship between pe r capita purchases and purchases from the previous time period (lagged one period) were positive an d significant, returning a coefficient of 0.64 and a t-statistic of 12.20. This indicates th at purchases of orange juice are based on habit and consumers who previ ously purchased orange juice are more likely to purchase

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69 orange juice again than those consumers w ho have not previously purchased orange juice. The relationship between purchases a nd price was negatively related and significant, resulting in a coe fficient of -0.008. This indicates that the expected inverse relationship between price and demand exists and that as th e price per gallon of orange juice increases, per capita purchas es of orange juice decrease. The relationship between purchases and diet media coverage was negatively related and significant, returning a coefficient of -0.0002. This suggests that as diet media coverage in newspapers topically related to low-carbohydrate diets, including the Atkins’ and South Beach diets, increased, purchases of orange juice decreased. Hypothesis 2 stated, “Demand for orange juice is correlate d with health-and diet-related information in the media.” This coefficient result of -0.0002 and corresponding t-statistic of -3.14 indicates that the hypothesis should not be rejected and that the relationship between purchases of orange juice and diet media coverage is significant. The relationship between purchases and the dummy variable representing the existence of field staff was positively relate d and significant. This suggests that the existence of field staff who worked with re tailers and food service in promoting Florida citrus and helped retailers in the area of merchandising positively and significantly affected purchases of orange juice. This also suggests that decreases in purchases of orange juice may be due, in part, to the elim ination of field staff who aided in promotion and merchandising efforts of orange juice. The relationship between purchases a nd disposable per capita income was positively related and significant, return ing a coefficient of 58.502. This result

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70 corresponds with research indica ting that the consumption of orange juice increases with household income. Finally, the relationship between the seas onal dummy variables, which represented the 13 four-week periods each year, and the dependent variable were all negative and significant. This suggests that demand for or ange juice is highest during the first fourweek period of each year. Autocorrelation According to Gujarati (2003), autocorrela tion is the correlation between members of a series of observations ordered in time or space. An assumption of the classical linear regression model is that au tocorrelation does not exist in the error terms of the explanatory variables. To test for this erro r, the Durbin h statistic was calculated which resulted in a measurement of 0.5641 and a probability of 0.2864. Consider the null hypothesis, “no autocorrelati on.” For a probability greate r than 0.05, the null hypothesis is not rejected and for a probability less than 0.05, the null hypothesis is rejected. For the national model, the Durbin h probability is greater than 0.05; therefore, the null hypothesis is not rejected, suggesting that au tocorrelation is not present in the U.S. demand model for orange juice. Elasticity at the Means for U.S. Orange Juice Demand To determine the price, income, and info rmation elasticities, the mean average of each variable was calculated. Those values a nd the measurements of elasticity for each variable are displayed in Table 5.2.

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71 Table 5.2: Elasticity at the Mean for Price, Income, and Diet Me dia Coverage in the Model for U.S. Orange Juice Demand. Elasticity Price (per gallon) -0.241 Income (per capita) 0.143 Diet Media Coverage -0.004 The price elasticity for orange juice is -0.24, which indicates that as the price per gallon increases, demand for orange juice decreas es. Since the absolute value of the price elasticity is less than 1.0, price elasticity is inelastic, indicatin g that price has a relatively small impact on demand. The income elasticity is 0.14, which indica tes that as per capita discretionary income increases, per capita purchases increas e. Since the elasticity is positive but less than 1.0, orange juice is classified as a nor mal necessity, which indicates that demand is not sensitive to changes in income most likel y because there is a limited need to consume additional quantities of orange juice as income increases. The elasticity of diet medi a coverage is -0.004. This measurement of elasticity indicates an inverse relationshi p between diet media coverage and per capita purchases of orange juice, although the fr equency of newspaper articl es relating to low-carbohydrate diets has a relatively small impact on demand. U.S. Correlation Analysis Kennedy (1993) states that high correlation between variables is defined by correlation coefficients greater than 0.80; the correlation analysis discussion for the U.S. model is with respect to the va lues displayed in Table 5.3.

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72 Table 5.3: Correlation Coefficient Matrix for National Orange Juice Demand Model, significance of each corr elation also shown. Per Capita Purchases Previous Period Per Capita Purchases Price Per Capita Discretionary Income Diet Media Coverage Field Staff Per Capita Purchases 1.000 0.856 (<.0001) -0.813 (<.0001) -0.448 (<.001) 0.440 (<.001) 0.493 (<.001) Previous Period Per Capita Purchases 0.856 (<.0001) 1.000 -0.732 (<.0001) -0.456 (<.0001) -0.429 (<.0001) 0.479 (<.0001) Price -0.813 (<.0001) -0.732 (<.0001) 1.000 0.837 (<.001) 0.583 (<.001) -0.738 (<.001) Per Capita Discretiona ry Income -0.448 (<.001) -0.456 (<.0001) 0.837 (<.001) 1.000 0.656 (<.001) -0.850 (<.001) Diet Media Coverage -0.440 (<.001) -0.429 (<.0001) 0.583 (<.001) 0.656 (<.001) 1.000 -0.562 (<.001) Field Staff 0.493 (<.001) 0.479 (<.0001) -0.738 (<.001) -0.850 (<.001) -0.562 (<.001) 1.000 Given the information displayed in Table 5.3, direct relationshi ps between each of the explanatory variables and between the ex planatory variables and dependent variable can be examined. Per capita purchases and purchases from the previous period were highly correlated, significant and positive. This result indicates consumer habit persistence when purchasing orange juice. Price was also highly correlated with the dependent variable (coefficient greater than 0.80). Price was ne gatively correlated and significant, which suggests that as price increases, per capita purchases of orange juice in the U.S. decrease. Price was also significan tly and negatively correla ted with per capita purchases from the previous period.

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73 Although not strongly correlate d, the relationship between diet media coverage as defined by the frequency of articles in na tional newspapers rela ting to low-carbohydrate diets and dieting was negatively correlated with per capita pu rchases of orange juice and purchases from the previous period, indicating that as diet coverage in newspapers increases, per capita purchases of orange ju ice decrease. The rela tionship between field staff and per capita purchases of orange ju ice was positively corre lated and significant, suggesting that the existence of field staff, who aided with promotional and merchandising of orange juice, increased per capita purchases of orange juice. As for the correlations between explanatory variables, the relationship between diet media coverage and income was positively correlated and significant, suggesting that consumers with higher levels of discretionary income may be more able to access diet media coverage in national newspapers. Th e relationship between field staff and diet media coverage was negatively correlated and significant, suggesting that as the field staff for the Florida Department of Citrus was eliminated, the diet me dia coverage in U.S. newspapers increased. Southern Region Orange Juice Demand Model The U.S. Southern Region retail purchases of orange juice re present the regional consumer demand for the product. The Southern region was selected as it is the region with the highest total purchases of orange ju ice and includes the state of Florida, where about 95 percent of oranges grown are proce ssed into orange juice. During the 20022003 season, Florida produced more than 1.2 billion gallons of orange juice. According to the Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services (2003), citrus groves represented 8.37 percent of Florida total farm acreage in 2002 and accounted for 21 percent of Florida farm sale s generating a value greater than $1 billion

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74 dollars annually, second only to greenhouse and nursery products Florida is the nation’s overwhelming leader in citrus production, a ccounting for more than 74 percent of the annual U.S. production in 2002-2003. Florid a produces 18.5 percent of the world’s oranges, ranking second only to Brazil, and Florida citrus growers cultivate 103.2 million trees on 796,540 acres. Figure 5.4 represents the U.S. and Southern region per capita pur chases of orange juice. The information displayed in the graph indicates that as U.S. per capita purchases decreased, so followed Southern region pe r capita purchases. From 1997 through 2001, Southern region per capita purc hases were similar to U.S. re tail per capita orange juice purchases. From 2001 through 2002, however, S outhern region per capita purchases fell by 18.1%, a decrease much greate r than the decrease in U.S. per capita purchases for the same period, 2.6%. Overall, from 2001 through 2004, Southern region per capita purchases of orange juice decline by 30.3% while U.S. purchases only declined by 11.4%. 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 Annual, 1996 through 2004Purchases (PC gallons) U.S. 2.983.093.123.053.103.072.992.862.72 Southern 3.183.233.163.173.102.542.382.16 199619971998199920002001200220032004 Figure 5.4: U.S. and Southern Region Per Capita Purchase s of Orange Juice, Annual (1996 through 2004)

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75 Given the much more prevalent decline w ithin the southern region, relative to the U.S. trend, an additional analysis and de mand estimation for this region may provide further insights into the eff ects of diet media coverage. Empirical Results, Southern Region Orange Juice Demand The demand of orange juice in the Southern region is expressed as: t-1RP, DC, ST, PCINC, PCGAL, P3...P13tDf (5.2) Where RP is the real weighted price per gall on of orange juice in the Southern region, DC is regional newspaper diet coverage, ST is a dummy variable representi ng the existence of field staff, PCINC is personal disposable income on a per capita basis, PCGALt-1 is the dependent variable (per capita purchases of orange juice) lagged by one period, and P2 through P13 are seasonal dummy variable s representing the 13 four-week periods annually from January 1997 through January 2005. Explanatory variables are the same as thos e used in the model of U.S. demand for orange juice, with the exception of the informa tion used to define the diet media coverage variable. In the Sout hern region model, diet media c overage represents the number of newspaper articles found in Southern re gion newspapers topically related to lowcarbohydrate diets. The demand equation is expressed in per capita terms and follows a linear functional form. The resulting model (Table 5.4 ) explains over 98% of the variation in retail purchases of orange ju ice. For the SAS program used to estimate the elasticity, regressions, and correlation an alyses, refer to Appendix C2.

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76 Table 5.4: Estimated Model Results of S outhern Region Per Capita Orange Juice Demand Variable Description Parameter Std Error t-Statistic Intercept 0.096 0.0214.45 PCGAL Dependent Variable (t-1) 0.854 0.03623.38 RP Real Price -0.023 0.006-3.68 PCINC Per Capita Disposable Income 9.435 5.368-1.57 DC Southern Newspaper Diet Coverage -0.0004 0.0002-1.98 ST Field Staff 0.008 0.0023.94 P2 Period 2 Dummy Variable -0.016 0.002-6.35 P3 Period 3 Dummy Variable -0.006 0.002-2.52 P4 Period 4 Dummy Variable -0.016 0.002-6.32 P5 Period 5 Dummy Variable -0.012 0.003-4.50 P6 Period 6 Dummy Variable 0.010 0.003-3.69 P7 Period 7 Dummy Variable -0.010 0.003-3.18 P8 Period 8 Dummy Variable 0.004 0.003-1.34 P9 Period 9 Dummy Variable 0.0001 0.0030.04 P10 Period 10 Dummy Variable -0.007 0.003-2.88 P11 Period 11 Dummy Variable -0.006 0.003-2.23 P12 Period 12 Dummy Variable -0.003 0.002-1.26 P13 Period 13 Dummy Variable -0.018 0.002-4.34 Total R2 0.9831 Regress R2 0.9831 Durbin-h 0.1010 P > h 0.4598 The relationship between purchases a nd price was negatively related and significant, resulting in a coe fficient of -0.02. This indicates that the expected inverse relationship between price and demand exists and that as th e price per gallon of orange juice increases, per capita purchases of ora nge juice in the Southern region decrease. The relationship between purchases and diet media coverage was negatively related and significant, returning a coefficient of -0.0004. This coefficient, however, is just insignificant at the 0.05 level (t-statistic equa ls 1.98), which suggests that the effect of newspapers is not different than zero at the 95% confidence le vel. If the confidence level were adjusted to the 90% level, this variab le would be significant suggesting diet media coverage in Southern region newspapers doe s have a negative effect upon per capita

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77 purchases of orange juice. Hypothesis 2 stat ed, “Demand for orange juice is correlated with health-and diet-related information in th e media.” This coefficient result of -0.0004 and corresponding t-statistic of -1.98 indicates that the hypothesis should not be rejected at the 90% confidence level a nd that the relationship between purchases of orange juice and diet media coverage is negative and significant. The relationship between purchases and the dummy variable representing the existence of field staff was positively related and significant, resulti ng in a coefficient of 0.008. This suggests that the existence of fiel d staff who worked w ith retailers and food service in promoting Florida orange jui ce and helped retailers in the area of merchandising positively and significantly affected purchases of orange juice. The relationship between purchases a nd disposable per capita income was negatively related with a coefficient of -8.435, although insignificant at the 95% confidence level, which suggests that per capi ta discretionary income has an effect no different than zero upon per capita purchases of orange juice in th e Southern region. Finally, the relationship between purchas es in the current time period and purchases from the previous time period, a m easurement of habit persistence, were positive and significant. This result is sim ilar to the relationship between current and previous purchases in the U.S. demand model, which indicates that purchases of orange juice are based on habit and consumers in the Southern region who previously purchased orange juice are more likely to purchase oran ge juice again than those consumers in the Southern region who have not previ ously purchased orange juice.

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78 All seasonal dummy variables in the Southe rn region analysis were not found to be significant, as in the U.S. mode l, nor did all the variables have the same sign as they did in the U.S. model. Autocorrelation As discussed in the previous section, Guja rati (2003) defines autocorrelation as the correlation between members of a series of obs ervations ordered in time or space and that the classical linear regression model assumes th at such autocorrela tion does not exist in the error terms of the explanat ory variables. Again consid ering the null hypothesis, “no autocorrelation,” the null hypothesis would not be rejected when the probability is greater than 0.05. For the regional model, the Durbin h probability is 0.4598, which is greater than 0.05; therefore, th e null hypothesis is not rejected, indicating th at the model does not have autocorrelation. Elasticity at the Means for Southe rn Region Orange Juice Demand To determine the price, income, and info rmation elasticities, the mean average of each variable was calculated. Both values ar e displayed for each variable in Table 5.5. Table 5.5: Elasticity at the Mean for Price, Income, and Diet Me dia Coverage in the Model for Southern Region Orange Juice Demand. Elasticity Price (per gallon) -0.206 Income (per capita) -0.064 Diet media coverage -0.004 The price elasticity for ora nge juice is -0.21, which indica tes that as price per gallon increases, demand for orange juice decreases. Since the absolute value of the price elasticity is less than 1.0, price elasticity is inelastic, indicatin g that price has a relatively small impact on demand. The income elasticity is -0.06, which indi cates that as per capita discretionary income increases, per capita purchases decreas e. Since the negative, orange juice would

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79 be classified as an inferior good. The income coefficient, however, was insignificant in the model, which indicates that the effect of income upon purchases of orange juice in the Southern Region is no different than zero. The elasticity of diet medi a coverage is -0.004. This measurement of elasticity indicates an inverse relationshi p between diet media coverage and per capita purchase of orange juice, although the fr equency of newspaper articl es relating to low-carbohydrate diets has a relatively small impact on demand. Southern Region Correlation Analysis Kennedy (1993) states that high correlation between variables is defined by correlation coefficients greater than 0.80; the correlation analysis discussion for the Southern region is with regards to the values displayed in Table 5.6. Table 5.6: Correlation Coefficient Matrix fo r Southern Region Orange Juice Demand Model, significance of each correlation also shown. Per Capita Purchases Previous Period Per Capita Purchases Price Per Capita Discretionary Income Field Staff Diet media coverage Per Capita Purchases 1.000 0. 971 (<0.0001) 0. 217 (0.0260) -0. 858 (<.001) 0. 842 (<.001) -0. 600 (<.001) Previous Period Per Capita Purchases 0. 971 (<0.0001) 1.000 0. 275 (0.0047) -0.858 (<0.0001) 0.821 (<0.0001) -0.589 (<0.0001) Price 0. 217 (0.0260) 0. 275 (0.0047) 1.00 -0.503 (<.0001) 0.420 (<.001) -0.334 (0.0005) Per Capita Discretionary Income -0. 858 (<.001) -0.858 (<0.0001) -0.503 (<.0001) 1.00 -0.857 (<.001) 0.579 (<.001) Field Staff 0. 842 (<.001) 0.821 (<0.0001) 0.420 (<.001) -0.857 (<.001) 1.00 -0.463 (<.001) Diet media coverage -0. 600 (<.001) -0.589 (<0.0001) -0.334 (0.0005) 0.579 (<.001) -0.463 (<.001) 1.00

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80 Given the information displayed in Table 5.6, direct relationshi ps between each of the explanatory variables and between the ex planatory variables and dependent variable can be determined. Three of the explanatory variables, previous purchases, field staff, and per capita discretionary income, are high ly correlated with the dependent variable (coefficient greater than 0.80); previous purch ases and field staff are positively correlated and significant and income is negatively correl ated and significant. Positively correlated previous purchases and the dependent variable suggest that habit persistence does exist for those consumers in the Southern region. Additionally, as field staff or income increases, per capita purchases of orange juice in the Southern region increase or decrease, respectively. Although not strong ly correlated, the relationship between Southern region diet media coverage and pe r capita purchases is negatively correlated, indicating that as the frequenc y of newspaper articles increas es, purchases of orange juice within the region decrease. This relationship is also true for the diet media variable and previous purchases. It is also important to note that diet media coverage and field staff is negatively correlated, suggesting that as th e field staff was eliminated, diet media coverage in the Southern region increased. Additionally, income and diet media coverage is positively correlated, which suggests that consumers with higher income levels are more able to access diet media coverage, especially that information which is portrayed in regional newspapers. Conclusions The second hypothesis was that demand for orange juice was correlated with health-and diet-related information in the media. For this study, diet media coverage was

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81 defined by the frequency of newspaper article s topically related to low-carbohydrate diets and dieting and is represented by the diet medi a coverage (DC) variable in both models. This variable was significant in both the U. S. and regional model at the 90% confidence level and had negative coefficien ts, indicating that as diet me dia coverage in national and regional newspapers related to low-carbohydrate dieting incr eased, per capita purchases of orange juice decreased. Th erefore, this hypothes is would not be rejected at the 90% confidence level. This conclusion is also supported by Figures 5.1, 5.2, and 5.3, which all indicate that as annual per capita purchases of ora nge juice decreased, the annual number of articles relating to low-car bohydrate diets was increasing, both in the U.S. and Southern region.

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82 CHAPTER 6 SUMMARY, IMPLICATIONS, AND FUTURE RESEARCH Fruit and fruit juices have generally been accepted by the public and nutritionists as excellent nutrient sources and important additio ns to a healthy diet. Culturally, juice and orange juice in particular have a direct asso ciation with breakfast meals. In the United States, these preferences have come unde r attack by low-carb ohydrate diet proponents and adherents. Popular diet media coverage about low-carbohydrate diets, specifically the Atkins’ and South Beach diets, ha s become prevalent through newspapers, magazines, and diet books. The researchable question presented in Ch apter 1 questioned if and how the cultural history of dieting in the Un ited States over the past 20 years has affected consumer demand for orange juice. This served as a basis for two hypotheses, that dieting trends occur in cycles, such that they follow a cycli cal pattern similar to the product life-cycle theory and that demand for orange juice is co rrelated with diet media coverage in the media. In order to test these two hypotheses, four research objectives were defined. Those objectives included estimating U.S. consumers demand for orange juice using purchase data from AC Nielsen, using content analysis to generate quantified measures of lowcarbohydrate diet media coverage, overlaying medi a coverage data to coincide with the purchase data time period from October 1996 through December 2004, and finally modeling consumer demand as a function of a set of independent variables that include the variable “media coverage.”

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83 Summary of Data Collection To address both hypotheses, purchase da ta were collected from the Florida Department of Citrus. Data were also colle cted from electronic databases representing the frequency of diet media coverage in national magazines and national and regional newspapers. Additional data collected from electronic databases and representing weekly bestseller rankings for popular diet books were also used to address the first hypothesis. Major Findings Hypothesis 1 In addressing the first hypothesis, the pr oduct life cycle theory was applied to the frequency of diet media c overage in national magazine s and national and regional newspapers and magazines. The product life cycle theory was also applied to bestseller rankings of popular diet books The product life cycle co nsists of four phases: introduction, growth, maturity, and decline. For the purposes of this study, theses phases were defined with regards to the frequency of diet media articles printed each four-week period. Of all media articles collected, 386 were collected from national newspaper sources and the highest concentrations of newspaper articles were printed from November 2002 through December 2004. An additional 58 articles were collected from national magazine sources and the highest concentr ations of those articles occurred from November 2002-December 2004. Since magazine articles are printed on a monthly to bimonthly basis, it is not surprising to note that an average of only 0.48 diet articles was printed each four-week period. Additionall y, the two four-week periods corresponding with the highest frequency of collected ar ticles occurred duri ng July and August 2004,

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84 five months later than th e two four-week periods corre sponding with the highest frequency of national newspapers articles. For the Southern region analysis, 223 ar ticles were collected from regional newspapers. The highest concentrations of collected articles were printed from November 2002 through December 2004 and the two four-week periods in which the highest frequencies of regional newspaper arti cles were printed o ccurred during January and February 2004, the same eight week peri od as discovered in the national newspaper analysis. The frequency of articles collected from Southern region newspapers also appears to follow a cycle which may reflect dieting trends, although some distinct differences between the national and regional newspaper analysis include: The introduction phase occurred from October 1995 through August 2003 and was 21 periods longer than the introduction pha se for national newspaper articles, The growth phase occurred from March 2003 through December 2004, and represented a growth phase s horter in duration than the gr owth phase for diet media coverage collected from national newspape r articles. This phase did terminate during the same four-week period (Decem ber 2004) for both national and regional newspapers, and The maturity phase occurred from January and September 2004 and concluded two months later than the maturity pha se for national newspaper articles. In addition, the graphic analysis presented in Chapter 4 did appear to indicate that diet life cycles are reflected in the fre quency of national and regional newspaper and magazine articles. Whether this confirms that a diet life cycle exists is questionable, it yet does provide some insight as to the possibi lity that diet trends may occur in cycles and may be reflected by the frequency of di et media coverage por trayed in national newspapers and magazines.

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85 In addition to diet media coverage found in newspapers and magazines, consumers may also access dieting information by readi ng popular books about diets and dieting. The popularity of two diet books, Atkins’ New Diet Revolution and The South Beach Diet were used as a proxy to identify the popular ity of the low-carbohydrate dieting trend. Using bestseller rankings published by Publishers Weekly it was determined that the popularity of the Atkins’ diet book occurred from 1996 through 2003. This widespread popularity of the Atkins book began nearly four years after th e book was published and appeared to be bimodal, with popularity of the book riding and falling twice over the eight-year period. The South Beach Diet book, however, was published in April 2003 and immediately appeared on th e Publisher’s Weekly bestse ller list, with popularity of the book continuing through December 2004. It is important to note that both books were popular from April through December 2003 and it is inconclusive as to which book had the greatest impact on encouraging th e popularity of low-carbohydrate dieting. Considering the research by Sornette, et al (2004) on how books ascend bestseller lists, it is important to note the time di fferences in which each book, Atkins’ and South Beach, ascended the Publisher’s Weekly bestse ller lists. As previously indicated, the Atkins’ diet book was published in July 1992 and did not appear on the Publishers’ Weekly bestseller list until April 1996, nearly four years after being published. This is in comparison to the immediate appearance of The South Beach Diet book, which was published in April 2003 and first appeared on the Publishers’ Weekly bestseller list during the same month. Sornette et all s uggested that books, whos e popularity is due to “endogenous shocks” or recommendations by friends and family, will ascended bestseller lists at a slow rate (i.e. Atki ns New Diet Revolution). Thei r research also suggests that

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86 books, whose popularity is due to “exogenous sh ocks” such as a celebrity endorsement, will rise and decline more abruptly on bestseller lists (i.e. The South Beach Diet ). Horovitz (2004) noted that The South Beach Diet was endorsed by celebrities such as Bette Midler, Nicole Kidman and former Pr esident Bill Clinton, which would qualify for those exogenous shocks. Given the observed trends represen ting book popularity and the frequency of newspaper and magazine articles, it does appe ar that diet media c overage about a diet trend does follow some pattern, but as to whet her this pattern defines the popularity of a diet is inconclusive. Also, it is uncertain as to what degree such diet media coverage impacts the popularity of a diet or what type s of diet media coverage have the greatest impact upon diet popularity. Therefore, the fi rst hypothesis should not be rejected based upon the inconclusiveness of the results. Such inconclusiveness is due in part to the absence of weekly bestseller rankings (due to the limited number of books listed on bestseller lists) throughout th e data set and the absence of newspaper and magazine articles during some four-week periods, whic h may have resulted in part to the time period length selected for the study. Therefor e, to better address the first hypothesis, a further analysis of additional newspaper and magazine sources or other sources of diet media coverage would need to be conducted to determine if other or additional diet media coverage sources better define the life cycle of a diet. Hypothesis 2 The second hypothesis addressed the rela tionship between consumer demand for orange juice and diet media coverage. This research found that orange juice purchases and diet media coverage are negatively relate d, as found with the co rrelation analysis. This result was further confirmed during th e regression analysis which indicated the

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87 presence of a statistically significant and ne gative effect of newspaper articles upon per capita purchases of orange juice in both the U.S. and for the Southern region. Additionally, the elasticity of diet media coverage in both models was found to be negative, although inelastic. Thes e results suggest that as diet media coverage relating to low-carbohydrate diets and dieti ng in national and Southern region newspapers increased, per capita purchases of orange juice d ecreased, although the impact upon demand was relatively small. Other results in the U.S. model of consumer demand for orange juice included the negative and significant re lationship between purchases a nd price, and the significant and positive relationships be tween purchases and the dummy variable representing the existence of field staff, purchases and di sposable per capita income, purchases and purchases from the previous time period (lagge d one period). For the Southern region model, negative and statistica lly significant relationships between purchases and price and purchases and disposable income were id entified, as were si gnificant and positive relationships between purcha ses and the existence of fi eld staff and purchases and purchases from the previous time period. Since graphical analysis, estimations of correlation coefficients and the regression analyses (U.S. and Southern region) all provid e similar evidence that diet media coverage and consumer demand are negatively correla ted, the second hypothe sis should not be rejected. Research Implications This study has examined the effect that the cultural history of dieting has had upon purchases for orange juice in the United Stat es and the Southern region and highlighted three major issues.

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88 The first issue which should be addresses is whether or not di et trends impact agricultural industries. This research indicated that diet media coverage is a statistically significant explanatory variable when modeling U.S. orange ju ice demand. This provides some indirect evidence that media coverage may affect dieting trends since the demand for food products that are affected by thos e dieting trends will also change. The challenges which accompany these shifts in consumer perceptions and therefore demand have the potential to affect industries throughout the agricultu re sector. By understanding the effect that diet media coverage, such as newspaper, magazine articles, and books about dieting has had upon demand for orange juice, a better u nderstanding can be obtained and applied to other affected industries by current and future dieting trends. Because obesity has become an even great er concern for Americans, the popularity of diets and dieting is likely to increase as will the potential for dieting trends to affect purchasing decisions and eating ha bits. Diets and dieting will continue to be an on-going issue of interest within the agriculture sector, although the in dustries affected by a dieting trend may change as diet trends rise and fall in popularity. Understanding how information about dieting trends is acce ssed and applied by consumers will help aid negatively affected agricultural industries in dealing with demand impacts of dieting trends. As consumers turn towards more popul ar sources of dieting information, such as television, internet, newspapers, and magazines, agricultural industries will also have to adjust marketing strategies and alliances to better communicate with consumers. Although the effect that a dieting trend may have upon a particular industry may not be prevented, it is possibl e that the findings from this study can help diminish this effect. For example, industries may determine that rather than investing time and money

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89 in product development to meet constantly shifting consumer nutri tional perceptions and demands, resources may best be directed to wards public relation efforts to lessen the effect that even temporary shifts in cons umer nutritional perceptions and demand might have upon a particular food product. A second issue which should be addressed is whether media coverage mirrors, or creates, a cultural phenomenon, su ch as the low-carbohydrate diet ing trend. As indicated earlier, data on the frequency of newspa per and magazine articles regarding lowcarbohydrate diets and dieting were collected. Diet media coverage in this study was considered as a proxy of the media setting an agenda about weight loss and dieting. Alternatively, frequency of diet media cove rage may only reflect societal norms, since dieting trends such as the low-carbohydrate dieting trend are usually picked up from society by a media producer, who then writes ab out them, leading to, in some cases, vast media attention. This reflection of societal norms, however, would be slightly distorted, since it is uncertain as to whether each me dia article truly capt ures a representative sample of the overall population. Additionally, the frequency of articles relati ng to low-carbohydrate diets may not truly reflect the pref erences of the over all population since consumers with higher incomes are more able to access diet media coverage in newspapers, magazines, or popular diet books. The frequenc y of articles may, however, reflect the preferences of consumers with higher levels of income that are then more able to acquire dieting information and apply such information to eating and purchase habits. Those consumers with higher incomes are considered also mo re likely to purchase orange juice.

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90 A third and final issue that should be addressed with regards to this study is whether or not content analysis is a usef ul method for measuring information and its potential impact upon evolving ma rket trends and consumer tastes and preferences. Content analysis was the method used in this study to guide the process for measuring diet media coverage in newspapers and magazi nes. The frequencies of articles collected each four-week period were then included in the models for U.S. and Southern region demand for orange juice. This “diet me dia coverage” variable was statistically significant and had the expected signs, suggest ing that data generate d by content analysis can be applicable to econometric estimations of consumer demand. Suggestions for Future Research Identifying the next dieting trend is difficult and never certain. Although many nutritionists seem to indicate that consumers will become increasing interested in foods based upon the levels of saturated and unsaturated fats, it is possible that the next dieting trend will be an extension of the low-carbohydrate dieting trend and be based upon the effect that sugars have upon blood sugar leve ls. This effect is known as the Glycemic index and is a component of The South Beach Diet According to Glycemicindex.com, host ed by the University of Sydney, the glycemic index (GI) is a ranking of carbohydrat es on a scale from 0 to 100 according to the extent to which they raise blood sugar le vels after being consumed. Foods with a high GI are those which are rapidly digested and absorbed and result in marked fluctuations in blood sugar levels. Low-GI foods, by virtue of their slow digestion and absorption, produce gradual rises in blood sugar and insu lin levels, and have proven benefits for health. Low GI diets have been shown to impr ove both glucose and lipid levels in people with diabetes (type 1 and type 2). They have benefits for weight control because they

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91 help control appetite and delay hunger. Low GI diets also reduce insulin levels and insulin resistance. The website also refers to recent studies from Harvard School of Public Health which indicates that the risks of diseases such as type 2 diabetes and coronary heart disease are strongly relate d to the GI levels of the overall diet. Considering the impact that these or ot her future dieting trends may have upon various agriculture i ndustries, further analysis of a dditional newspaper and magazine sources or other sources of diet media coverage may better defi ne the life cycle of a diet and consequently help affected agricultural industries to quickly respond to shifts in consumer purchase habits. Further research may also include confirmation that media can negatively impact purchases of food pr oducts, especially diet media coverage. Finally, understanding how consumers’ access, process and respond to diet and health information are other areas of potential future research. Alternative Information Sources As discussed previously, consumers are in creasingly turning to mass information sources as primary sources for dieting and heal th information. Whether it is unsaturated fats or the glycemic index, the next dieti ng trend is sure to im pact agribusiness and production agriculture. Sources of information available about future dieting trends will be important to identify in or der that affected industries will be able to address accompanying changes in consumer perspectives about certain food pr oducts in light of a particular diet or dieting trend. Sources that should be considered for further research include information accessible through the Internet and reported on television, both in newscasts and as portrayed in television shows. This area of future research might also include determining what other diet media covera ge sources have an effect on consumer

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92 nutritional perceptions. For in stance, identifying whether go vernment sources of health and diet information have the same, less or gr eater influence as compared to other diet media coverage sources would be bene ficial to the agricultural sector. Media Impact and Demand Further confirmation that media can nega tively impact purchases of food products, especially diet media coverage, would add valid ity to this and previous studies regarding the effect that media coverage has upon de mand for food products. This area of further research might also involve determining if all food products or only particular food products may be affected by dieting trends. For instance, researchers may determine whether food products considered necessities, luxuries, or inferior goods are equally impacted by diet media coverage and therefore, dieting trends. This will particularly be helpful to agricultural industries affected by dieting trends, when determining how to respond to information portrayed by the me dia and other sources, specifically how individual industries should respond to di eting trends as compared to the entire agricultural sector. Information Access and Application by Consumers Determining how consumer nutritional perceptions are translated from various diet media coverage sources and whether or not he alth motivation is related to the frequency and magnitude of diet media coverage is the fi nal area of further research to be suggested. As consumers access and apply diet informati on from various sources to their purchasing decisions, understanding how th e information accessed is then translated into purchase decisions and eating habits will help agri cultural industrie s understand th e link between information and consumer demand, such an understanding would help industries better respond to not only dieting trends, but general sh ifts in consumer tastes and preferences.

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93 APPENDIX A DIET MEDIA COVERAGE DATA TABLES Table A.1: National Diet Media Coverage Collected from National Newspapers and Magazines, October 1995 through January 2005 Period Total News Magazine 10/7/1995 2 2 0 11/4/1995 0 0 0 12/2/1995 0 0 0 12/30/1995 0 0 0 1/27/1996 0 0 0 2/24/1996 0 0 0 3/23/1996 1 0 1 4/20/1996 1 0 1 5/18/1996 2 1 1 6/15/1996 1 0 1 7/13/1996 0 0 0 8/10/1996 0 0 0 9/7/1996 1 1 0 10/5/1996 0 0 0 11/2/1996 0 0 0 11/30/1996 0 0 0 12/28/1996 0 0 0 1/25/1997 0 0 0 2/22/1997 1 0 1 3/22/1997 1 0 1 4/19/1997 1 1 0 5/17/1997 2 2 0 6/14/1997 0 0 0 7/12/1997 2 0 2 8/9/1997 0 0 0 9/6/1997 0 0 0 10/4/1997 0 0 0 11/1/1997 0 0 0 11/29/1997 0 0 0 12/27/1997 0 0 0 1/24/1998 0 0 0 2/21/1998 0 0 0 3/21/1998 0 0 0 4/18/1998 0 0 0

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94 Table A.1 Continued Period Total News Magazine 5/16/1998 0 0 0 6/13/1998 1 1 0 7/11/1998 0 0 0 8/8/1998 2 2 0 9/5/1998 0 0 0 10/3/1998 0 0 0 10/31/1998 0 0 0 11/28/1998 2 1 1 12/26/1998 0 0 0 1/23/1999 1 1 0 2/20/1999 0 0 0 3/20/1999 1 0 1 4/17/1999 0 0 0 5/15/1999 0 0 0 6/12/1999 2 2 0 7/10/1999 2 1 1 8/7/1999 1 1 0 9/4/1999 0 0 0 10/2/1999 0 0 0 10/30/1999 3 2 1 11/27/1999 7 5 2 12/25/1999 3 3 0 1/22/2000 3 3 0 2/19/2000 0 0 0 3/18/2000 4 4 0 4/15/2000 0 0 0 5/13/2000 4 4 0 6/10/2000 2 2 0 7/8/2000 0 0 0 8/5/2000 2 1 1 9/2/2000 4 4 0 9/30/2000 2 2 0 10/28/2000 1 1 0 11/25/2000 2 2 0 12/23/2000 1 1 0 1/20/2001 1 1 0 2/17/2001 0 0 0 3/17/2001 0 0 0 4/14/2001 2 2 0 5/12/2001 1 1 0 6/9/2001 1 0 1 7/7/2001 2 2 0

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95 Table A.1 Continued Period Total News Magazine 8/4/2001 2 2 0 9/1/2001 3 3 0 9/29/2001 0 0 0 10/27/2001 5 5 0 11/24/2001 1 1 0 12/22/2001 2 2 0 1/19/2002 1 1 0 2/16/2002 0 0 0 3/16/2002 0 0 0 4/13/2002 0 0 0 5/11/2002 0 0 0 6/8/2002 4 2 2 7/6/2002 1 1 0 8/3/2002 5 4 1 8/31/2002 6 6 0 9/28/2002 5 2 3 10/26/2002 4 3 1 11/23/2002 3 3 0 12/21/2002 7 5 2 1/18/2003 9 8 1 2/15/2003 3 3 0 3/15/2003 1 1 0 4/12/2003 8 8 0 5/10/2003 12 10 2 6/7/2003 14 13 1 7/5/2003 5 5 0 8/2/2003 1 1 0 8/30/2003 8 7 1 9/27/2003 7 6 1 11/1/2003 12 9 3 11/29/2003 12 10 2 12/27/2003 13 13 0 1/24/2004 27 26 1 2/21/2004 27 27 0 3/20/2004 17 15 2 4/17/2004 17 15 2 5/15/2004 17 13 4 6/12/2004 26 25 1 7/10/2004 12 5 7 8/7/2004 17 15 2 9/4/2004 16 16 0 10/2/2004 11 10 1

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96 Table A.1 Continued Period Total News Magazine 10/30/2004 8 7 1 11/27/2004 11 10 1 12/25/2004 8 8 0 1/22/2005 4 4 0 Grand Total 444 386 58

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97 Table A.2: Southern Region Health Informa tion as Collected from Regional Newspapers, January 1997 through January 2005 Period News Articles 1/25/1997 1 2/22/1997 2 3/22/1997 0 4/19/1997 0 5/17/1997 0 6/14/1997 0 7/12/1997 0 8/9/1997 0 9/6/1997 0 10/4/1997 0 11/1/1997 0 11/29/1997 0 12/27/1997 0 1/24/1998 2 2/21/1998 1 3/21/1998 1 4/18/1998 0 5/16/1998 2 6/13/1998 0 7/11/1998 1 8/8/1998 0 9/5/1998 0 10/3/1998 1 10/31/1998 0 11/28/1998 1 12/26/1998 0 1/23/1999 0 2/20/1999 0 3/20/1999 1 4/17/1999 0 5/15/1999 0 6/12/1999 3 7/10/1999 0 8/7/1999 0 9/4/1999 0 10/2/1999 0 10/30/1999 0 11/27/1999 1 12/25/1999 1 1/22/2000 3 2/19/2000 1 3/18/2000 5 4/15/2000 0

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98 Table A.2 Continued Period News Articles 5/13/2000 0 6/10/2000 0 7/8/2000 0 8/5/2000 1 9/2/2000 2 9/30/2000 0 10/28/2000 0 11/25/2000 0 12/23/2000 0 1/20/2001 0 2/17/2001 0 3/17/2001 0 4/14/2001 0 5/12/2001 0 6/9/2001 0 7/7/2001 0 8/4/2001 0 9/1/2001 0 9/29/2001 1 10/27/2001 1 11/24/2001 0 12/22/2001 0 1/19/2002 0 2/16/2002 2 3/16/2002 3 4/13/2002 0 5/11/2002 2 6/8/2002 2 7/6/2002 0 8/3/2002 0 8/31/2002 0 9/28/2002 2 10/26/2002 0 11/23/2002 2 12/21/2002 3 1/18/2003 1 2/15/2003 1 3/15/2003 7 4/12/2003 2 5/10/2003 5 6/7/2003 5 7/5/2003 1 8/2/2003 0 8/30/2003 5

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99 Table A.2 Continued Period News Articles 9/27/2003 4 11/1/2003 6 11/29/2003 7 12/27/2003 8 1/24/2004 18 2/21/2004 18 3/20/2004 10 4/17/2004 8 5/15/2004 14 6/12/2004 10 7/10/2004 11 8/7/2004 3 9/4/2004 12 10/2/2004 2 10/30/2004 7 11/27/2004 6 12/25/2004 4 1/22/2005 0 Grand Total 223

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100 Table A.3: Weekly Best seller Rankings for Atkins’ New Diet Revolution by Dr. Robert Atkins, New York Times and Publisher Weekly Bestseller Lists, April 1996 through February 2004. (Weeks that the book was not ranked are indicated as NR) Week New York Times Publisher’s Weekly 4/28/1996 4 NR 5/5/1996 4 NR 5/12/1996 4 NR 5/19/1996 4 NR 5/26/1996 3 NR 6/2/1996 3 NR 6/9/1996 3 NR 6/16/1996 3 NR 6/23/1996 3 NR 6/30/1996 3 NR 7/7/1996 3 NR 7/14/1996 3 NR 7/21/1996 3 NR 7/28/1996 NR NR 8/4/1996 2 NR 8/11/1996 2 NR 8/18/1996 2 NR 8/25/1996 2 NR 9/1/1996 2 NR 9/8/1996 2 NR 9/15/1996 2 NR 9/22/1996 2 NR 9/29/1996 4 NR 10/6/1996 4 NR 10/13/1996 4 NR 10/20/1996 5 NR 10/27/1996 NR NR 11/3/1996 NR NR 11/10/1996 4 NR 11/17/1996 NR NR 11/24/1996 NR NR 12/1/1996 NR NR 12/8/1996 NR NR 12/15/1996 NR NR 12/22/1996 NR NR 12/29/1996 NR 14 1/5/1997 NR 5 1/12/1997 NR 5 1/19/1997 NR 5 1/26/1997 NR 6 2/2/1997 3 9

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101 Table A.3 Continued Week New York Times Publisher’s Weekly 2/9/1997 3 13 2/16/1997 3 12 2/23/1997 3 7 3/2/1997 3 8 3/9/1997 3 8 3/16/1997 2 9 3/23/1997 2 13 3/30/1997 3 9 4/6/1997 2 7 4/13/1997 2 9 4/20/1997 2 11 4/27/1997 2 6 5/4/1997 1 13 5/11/1997 3 11 5/18/1997 NR 10 5/25/1997 NR 8 6/1/1997 4 13 6/8/1997 3 NR 6/15/1997 3 NR 6/22/1997 NR 12 6/29/1997 4 12 7/6/1997 4 7 7/13/1997 4 12 7/20/1997 4 9 7/27/1997 4 7 8/3/1997 4 5 8/10/1997 4 7 8/17/1997 4 12 8/24/1997 3 6 8/31/1997 3 8 9/7/1997 3 9 9/14/1997 3 11 9/21/1997 3 9 9/28/1997 3 9 10/5/1997 3 7 10/12/1997 3 11 10/19/1997 3 10 10/26/1997 3 7 11/2/1997 3 5 11/9/1997 3 6 11/16/1997 3 NR 11/23/1997 3 NR 11/30/1997 4 12 12/7/1997 4 14

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102 Table A.3 Continued Week New York Times Publisher’s Weekly 12/14/1997 NR 13 12/21/1997 NR 12 12/28/1997 NR 7 1/4/1998 NR 7 1/11/1998 NR 5 1/18/1998 4 4 1/25/1998 2 6 2/1/1998 2 6 2/8/1998 2 3 2/15/1998 2 3 2/22/1998 2 4 3/1/1998 2 3 3/8/1998 2 3 3/15/1998 3 2 3/22/1998 3 1 3/29/1998 3 2 4/5/1998 3 3 4/12/1998 2 2 4/19/1998 2 4 4/26/1998 3 4 5/3/1998 2 4 5/10/1998 2 4 5/17/1998 2 3 5/24/1998 4 7 5/31/1998 2 6 6/7/1998 2 8 6/14/1998 2 7 6/21/1998 2 3 6/28/1998 2 4 7/5/1998 2 3 7/12/1998 2 3 7/19/1998 1 1 7/26/1998 1 2 8/2/1998 2 2 8/9/1998 1 2 8/16/1998 1 1 8/23/1998 1 2 8/30/1998 1 1 9/6/1998 1 2 9/13/1998 1 2 9/20/1998 1 1 9/27/1998 1 1 10/4/1998 1 1 10/11/1998 1 1

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103 Table A.3 Continued Week New York Times Publisher’s Weekly 10/18/1998 1 2 10/25/1998 1 NR 11/1/1998 1 1 11/8/1998 1 1 11/15/1998 1 1 11/22/1998 2 1 11/29/1998 2 4 12/6/1998 2 5 12/13/1998 3 3 12/20/1998 4 3 12/27/1998 NR NR 1/3/1999 NR 3 1/10/1999 NR 3 1/17/1999 1 3 1/24/1999 1 3 1/31/1999 1 3 2/7/1999 1 4 2/14/1999 1 3 2/21/1999 1 2 2/28/1999 2 1 3/7/1999 1 1 3/14/1999 1 1 3/21/1999 1 1 3/28/1999 1 1 4/4/1999 1 1 4/11/1999 1 1 4/18/1999 1 1 4/25/1999 1 2 5/2/1999 1 2 5/9/1999 1 2 5/16/1999 1 3 5/23/1999 2 3 5/30/1999 1 6 6/6/1999 1 2 6/13/1999 1 2 6/20/1999 1 3 6/27/1999 1 2 7/4/1999 2 4 7/11/1999 1 3 7/18/1999 1 3 7/25/1999 1 2 8/1/1999 1 2 8/8/1999 1 2 8/15/1999 1 2

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104 Table A.3 Continued Week New York Times Publisher’s Weekly 8/22/1999 1 2 8/29/1999 1 2 9/5/1999 1 1 9/12/1999 1 1 9/19/1999 1 1 9/26/1999 1 1 10/3/1999 1 2 10/10/1999 1 2 10/17/1999 1 1 10/24/1999 1 1 10/31/1999 4 3 11/7/1999 3 4 11/14/1999 3 2 11/21/1999 2 8 11/28/1999 2 14 12/5/1999 3 6 12/12/1999 4 3 12/19/1999 3 3 12/26/1999 NR 4 1/2/2000 NR 4 1/9/2000 NR 4 1/16/2000 1 4 1/23/2000 NR 3 1/30/2000 NR 2 2/6/2000 1 2 2/13/2000 1 4 2/20/2000 1 4 2/27/2000 1 5 3/5/2000 1 3 3/12/2000 1 5 3/19/2000 1 5 3/26/2000 1 7 4/2/2000 1 3 4/9/2000 1 3 4/16/2000 1 4 4/23/2000 1 6 4/30/2000 1 8 5/7/2000 2 8 5/14/2000 3 11 5/21/2000 3 9 5/28/2000 4 10 6/4/2000 3 13 6/11/2000 4 12 6/18/2000 2 5

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105 Table A.3 Continued Week New York Times Publisher’s Weekly 6/25/2000 2 6 7/2/2000 3 6 7/9/2000 2 13 7/16/2000 2 NR 7/23/2000 2 11 7/30/2000 1 10 8/6/2000 1 12 8/13/2000 2 6 8/20/2000 3 6 8/27/2000 2 6 9/3/2000 2 7 9/10/2000 3 7 9/17/2000 2 12 9/24/2000 4 11 10/1/2000 4 10 10/8/2000 5 12 10/15/2000 4 12 10/22/2000 4 10 10/29/2000 3 14 11/5/2000 2 14 11/12/2000 3 14 11/19/2000 3 11 11/26/2000 5 9 12/3/2000 NR 5 12/10/2000 NR 10 12/17/2000 NR 13 12/24/2000 NR NR 12/31/2000 NR NR 1/6/2001 NR NR 1/7/2001 NR 13 1/14/2001 3 12 1/21/2001 3 NR 1/28/2001 5 NR 2/4/2001 NR NR 2/11/2001 5 13 2/25/2001 5 NR 3/4/2001 5 14 3/11/2001 5 NR 3/18/2001 5 NR 3/25/2001 5 NR 4/1/2001 5 NR 4/8/2001 5 NR 4/15/2001 5 NR 4/22/2001 5 NR

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106 Table A.3 Continued Week New York Times Publisher’s Weekly 4/29/2001 5 NR 5/6/2001 3 NR 5/13/2001 3 NR 5/20/2001 6 NR 5/27/2001 NR NR 6/3/2001 NR NR 6/10/2001 NR NR 6/17/2001 NR NR 6/24/2001 NR NR 7/1/2001 NR NR 7/8/2001 NR NR 7/15/2001 3 NR 7/22/2001 5 NR 7/29/2001 NR NR 8/5/2001 NR NR 8/12/2001 5 NR 8/19/2001 5 NR 8/26/2001 NR NR 9/2/2001 5 NR 9/9/2001 5 NR 9/16/2001 NR NR 9/23/2001 NR NR 9/30/2001 NR NR 10/7/2001 NR NR 10/14/2001 NR NR 10/21/2001 6 NR 10/28/2001 NR NR 11/4/2001 NR NR 11/11/2001 NR NR 11/18/2001 NR NR 11/25/2001 NR 14 12/2/2001 NR 13 12/9/2001 NR 7 12/16/2001 NR 6 12/23/2001 NR 11 12/30/2001 NR 11 1/13/2002 3 9 1/20/2002 NR 7 1/27/2002 1 11 2/3/2002 1 10 2/10/2002 1 8 2/17/2002 1 9 2/24/2002 1 12 3/3/2002 1 14

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107 Table A.3 Continued Week New York Times Publisher’s Weekly 3/10/2002 1 7 3/17/2002 1 7 3/24/2002 2 6 3/31/2002 2 10 4/7/2002 2 NR 4/14/2002 2 15 4/21/2002 1 15 4/28/2002 1 NR 5/5/2002 2 NR 5/12/2002 1 NR 5/19/2002 1 NR 5/26/2002 NR NR 6/2/2002 4 NR 6/9/2002 3 12 6/16/2002 4 4 6/23/2002 3 3 6/30/2002 5 8 7/7/2002 4 9 7/14/2002 4 14 7/21/2002 2 4 7/28/2002 1 6 8/4/2002 1 7 8/11/2002 1 9 8/18/2002 1 7 8/25/2002 1 6 9/1/2002 1 11 9/8/2002 1 11 9/15/2002 1 12 9/22/2002 1 8 9/29/2002 1 8 10/6/2002 1 10 10/13/2002 1 12 10/20/2002 1 1 10/27/2002 1 2 11/3/2002 2 2 11/10/2002 1 3 11/17/2002 1 2 11/24/2002 1 3 12/1/2002 1 2 12/8/2002 1 2 12/15/2002 1 1 12/22/2002 1 1 12/29/2002 2 1 1/5/2003 1 1

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108 Table A.3 Continued Week New York Times Publisher’s Weekly 1/12/2003 1 1 1/19/2003 1 1 1/26/2003 1 1 2/2/2003 1 1 2/9/2003 1 1 2/16/2003 1 1 2/23/2003 1 1 3/2/2003 1 2 3/9/2003 1 1 3/16/2003 1 1 3/23/2003 1 1 3/30/2003 1 1 4/6/2003 1 1 4/13/2003 1 1 4/20/2003 1 1 4/27/2003 1 1 5/4/2003 1 1 5/11/2003 1 1 5/18/2003 1 NR 5/25/2003 1 1 6/1/2003 1 1 6/8/2003 1 2 6/15/2003 1 2 6/22/2003 1 2 6/29/2003 1 3 7/6/2003 1 4 7/13/2003 1 4 7/20/2003 1 3 7/27/2003 1 1 8/3/2003 1 1 8/10/2003 1 1 8/17/2003 1 1 8/24/2003 1 5 8/31/2003 1 6 9/7/2003 1 3 9/14/2003 1 2 9/21/2003 1 2 9/28/2003 1 3 10/5/2003 1 5 10/12/2003 1 6 10/19/2003 1 10 10/26/2003 1 9 11/2/2003 1 11 11/9/2003 1 NR

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109 Table A.3 Continued Week New York Times Publisher’s Weekly 11/16/2003 1 11 11/23/2003 1 9 11/30/2003 1 8 12/7/2003 1 7 12/14/2003 1 11 12/21/2003 3 13 12/28/2003 5 NR 1/4/2004 NR 11 1/11/2004 2 15 1/18/2004 1 15 1/25/2004 1 14 2/1/2004 1 NR 2/8/2004 1 NR 2/15/2004 NR NR

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110 Table A.4: Weekly Best seller Rankings for The South Beach Diet by Dr. Arthur Agatston, New York Times and Publisher Weekly Bestseller Lists, April 27, 2003 through December 19, 2004. (Weeks that the book was not ranked are indicated as NR) Week New York Times Publisher’s Weekly 4/27/2003 3 9 5/4/2003 3 11 5/11/2003 3 8 5/18/2003 3 3 5/25/2003 1 1 6/1/2003 2 1 6/8/2003 1 1 6/15/2003 3 2 6/22/2003 3 1 6/29/2003 3 3 7/6/2003 1 2 7/13/2003 1 2 7/20/2003 1 2 7/27/2003 1 1 8/3/2003 1 2 8/10/2003 1 1 8/17/2003 1 1 8/24/2003 1 1 8/31/2003 1 1 9/7/2003 1 1 9/14/2003 1 1 9/21/2003 1 1 9/28/2003 2 2 10/5/2003 2 2 10/12/2003 2 2 10/19/2003 2 1 10/26/2003 1 1 11/2/2003 1 1 11/9/2003 1 1 11/16/2003 1 1 11/23/2003 1 1 11/30/2003 1 1 12/7/2003 2 1 12/14/2003 2 1 12/21/2003 2 1 12/28/2003 2 2 1/4/2004 2 3 1/11/2004 2 1 1/18/2004 1 1 1/25/2004 1 1 2/1/2004 1 1

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111 Table A.4 Continued Week New York Times Publisher’s Weekly 2/8/2004 1 1 2/15/2004 NR 1 2/22/2004 NR 1 2/29/2004 NR 1 3/7/2004 NR 1 3/14/2004 NR 1 3/21/2004 NR 1 3/28/2004 NR 1 4/4/2004 NR 2 4/11/2004 NR 2 4/18/2004 NR 3 4/25/2004 NR 2 5/2/2004 NR 2 5/9/2004 NR 2 5/16/2004 NR 1 5/23/2004 NR 1 5/30/2004 NR 1 6/6/2004 NR 1 6/13/2004 NR 2 6/20/2004 NR 2 6/27/2004 NR 3 7/4/2004 NR 3 7/11/2004 NR 2 7/18/2004 NR 2 7/25/2004 NR 2 8/1/2004 NR 2 8/8/2004 NR 2 8/15/2004 NR 2 8/22/2004 NR 2 8/29/2004 NR 3 9/5/2004 NR 3 9/12/2004 NR 2 9/19/2004 NR 2 9/26/2004 NR 4 10/3/2004 NR 6 10/10/2004 NR 4 10/17/2004 NR 5 10/24/2004 NR 5 10/31/2004 NR 5 11/7/2004 NR 5 11/14/2004 NR 5 11/21/2004 NR 5 11/28/2004 NR 9 12/5/2004 NR 9

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112 Table A.4 Continued Week New York Times Publisher’s Weekly 12/12/2004 NR 11 12/19/2004 NR NR 1/2/2005 NR NR 1/9/2005 NR 4 1/16/2005 NR 5 1/23/2005 NR 7 1/30/2005 NR 6 2/6/2005 NR 5 2/13/2005 NR 8

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113 APPENDIX B NATIONAL AND REGIONAL PURCHASE AND PRICE DATA TABLES Table B.1: National Data Summary Table, October 1995 through January 2005. Period PCGal (gallons) realP (dollars) GRP FieldStaff (0,1) PDINC (dollars) POP 10/7/1995 0.235882 5.33 0 1 8337.604 20529000 11/4/1995 0.234942 5.31 0 1 8389.253 20552538 12/2/1995 0.238388 5.29 0 1 8410.214 20572615 12/30/1995 0.249815 5.08 0 1 8445.877 20590154 1/27/1996 0.254739 5.02 0 1 8529.828 20606231 2/24/1996 0.240755 5.34 0 1 8644.814 20622462 3/23/1996 0.24106 5.39 0 1 8747.226 20640231 4/20/1996 0.22872 5.81 0 1 8743.891 20660154 5/18/1996 0.22051 6.14 0 1 8881.256 20679692 6/15/1996 0.213063 6.49 0 1 8938.638 20700923 7/13/1996 0.208569 6.69 0 1 8938.638 20700923 8/10/1996 0.2124 6.58 0 1 8953.082 20722615 9/7/1996 0.21911 6.39 0 1 9063.783 20746462 10/5/1996 0.227018 6.11 0 1 9080.128 20770385 11/2/1996 0.229368 6.05 0 1 9131.694 20793385 11/30/1996 0.23836 5.85 0 1 9190.394 20816308 12/28/1996 0.246006 5.66 0 1 9234.485 20835308 1/25/1997 0.255291 5.41 792 1 9303.213 20853385 2/22/1997 0.242172 5.74 792 1 9379.054 20870615 3/22/1997 0.246105 5.62 792 1 9453.28 20888846 4/19/1997 0.237424 5.83 792 1 9476.631 20909154 5/17/1997 0.229987 6.06 846 1 9500.974 20929077 6/14/1997 0.222404 6.27 846 1 9500.974 20929077 7/12/1997 0.216736 6.43 418 1 9554.04 20950538 8/9/1997 0.224006 6.19 418 1 9608.493 20972846 9/6/1997 0.229789 6 418 1 9685.627 20998000 10/4/1997 0.239324 5.73 1466 1 9756.308 21022462 11/1/1997 0.245295 5.52 1466 1 9827.704 21045615 11/29/1997 0.248743 5.49 1466 1 9889.13 21066692 12/27/1997 0.250614 5.38 1466 1 9930.596 21085538 1/24/1998 0.26717 4.96 1140 1 10045.54 21105000 2/21/1998 0.254533 5.21 1140 1 10129.44 21121308 3/21/1998 0.253086 5.24 1140 1 10210.33 21137154 4/18/1998 0.240253 5.56 892 1 10275.36 21156923

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114 Table B.1 Continued Period PCGal (gallons) realP (dollars) GRP FieldStaff (0,1) PDINC (dollars) POP 5/16/1998 0.23166 5.82 892 1 10354.24 21177000 6/13/1998 0.22713 6 892 1 10354.24 21177000 7/11/1998 0.220807 6.24 675 1 10415.05 21197923 8/8/1998 0.224004 6.14 675 1 10475.16 21219538 9/5/1998 0.232647 5.96 675 1 10544.04 21242923 10/3/1998 0.239879 5.75 675 1 10589.34 21265769 10/31/1998 0.243559 5.69 996 1 10656.23 21288154 11/28/1998 0.246475 5.74 996 1 10703.13 21309308 12/26/1998 0.241536 6.02 996 1 10722.67 21328385 1/23/1999 0.263193 5.64 1102 1 10796.48 21348769 2/20/1999 0.243697 6.21 1102 1 10838.08 21364231 3/20/1999 0.251803 5.96 1102 1 10890.83 21380154 4/17/1999 0.234231 6.55 460 1 10996.46 21399692 5/15/1999 0.22491 6.82 460 1 11035.18 21420154 6/12/1999 0.225998 6.74 460 1 11035.18 21420154 7/10/1999 0.213586 7.21 705 1 11068.59 21442000 8/7/1999 0.217491 7 705 1 11135.06 21464615 9/4/1999 0.221516 6.92 705 1 11226.61 21488308 10/2/1999 0.229157 6.66 705 1 11293.79 21511692 10/30/1999 0.233851 6.59 1090 1 11422.13 21534769 11/27/1999 0.240837 6.43 1090 1 11512.22 21555462 12/25/1999 0.246141 6.29 1090 1 11625.49 21574385 1/22/2000 0.266125 5.86 1646 1 11832.37 21594308 2/19/2000 0.252596 6.1 1646 1 11988.56 21610692 3/18/2000 0.248196 6.25 1646 1 12168.04 21627538 4/15/2000 0.236459 6.59 225 1 12180.8 21648077 5/13/2000 0.233209 6.66 225 1 12180.8 21648077 6/10/2000 0.222405 7.08 225 1 12242.87 21665846 7/8/2000 0.217233 7.29 1071 1 12368.32 21685385 8/5/2000 0.221836 7.12 1071 1 12514.87 21707077 9/2/2000 0.230606 6.8 1071 1 12553.92 21727846 9/30/2000 0.235342 6.7 1071 1 12665.86 21749692 10/28/2000 0.238919 6.56 1227 1 12718.01 21770462 11/25/2000 0.244476 6.47 1227 1 12720.79 21789923 12/23/2000 0.255845 6.16 1227 1 12723.05 21808615 1/20/2001 0.263861 5.94 1456 1 12918.53 21825846 2/17/2001 0.252403 6.29 1456 1 12995.14 21840923 3/17/2001 0.255536 6.15 1456 1 13050.43 21857538 4/14/2001 0.247452 6.38 360 1 13050.43 21857538 5/12/2001 0.237033 6.65 360 0 13081.22 21875231 6/9/2001 0.222972 7.26 360 0 13153.89 21892615

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115 Table B.1 Continued Period PCGal (gallons) realP (dollars) GRP FieldStaff (0,1) PDINC (dollars) POP 7/7/2001 0.221395 7.32 66 0 13217.75 21911923 8/4/2001 0.22243 7.21 66 0 13402.85 21930923 9/1/2001 0.226155 7.09 66 0 13643.18 21951615 9/29/2001 0.229343 6.96 66 0 13606.61 21973308 10/27/2001 0.229961 6.9 0 0 13338.7 21993000 11/24/2001 0.229623 6.97 0 0 13346.69 22012538 12/22/2001 0.231413 6.84 0 0 13331.48 22030846 1/19/2002 0.248859 6.3 1648 0 13643.61 22047769 2/16/2002 0.234647 6.75 1648 0 13757.45 22064000 3/16/2002 0.239003 6.64 1648 0 13896.51 22079077 4/13/2002 0.235824 6.68 1258 0 13896.51 22079077 5/11/2002 0.231593 6.78 1258 0 14069.53 22094923 6/8/2002 0.222372 7.15 1258 0 14102.43 22112385 7/6/2002 0.216647 7.35 681 0 14152.01 22130692 8/3/2002 0.220818 7.15 681 0 14135.69 22149308 8/31/2002 0.222628 7.06 681 0 14178.26 22170000 9/28/2002 0.227646 6.94 681 0 14212.12 22191077 10/26/2002 0.223815 7.11 882 0 14258.52 22211385 11/23/2002 0.228077 7.01 882 0 14279.37 22230462 12/21/2002 0.234808 6.77 882 0 14283.5 22247231 1/18/2003 0.245594 6.5 1144 0 14428.98 22263615 2/15/2003 0.236985 6.83 1144 0 14601.68 22280385 3/15/2003 0.233237 6.94 1144 0 14761.24 22296077 4/12/2003 0.219545 7.39 1009 0 14761.24 22296077 5/10/2003 0.216666 7.45 1009 0 14762.45 22312615 6/7/2003 0.208715 7.83 1009 0 14824.41 22330462 7/5/2003 0.205456 7.93 1028 0 14906.15 22349231 8/2/2003 0.20432 7.96 1028 0 15152.07 22368385 8/30/2003 0.209464 7.78 1028 0 15359.27 22389769 9/27/2003 0.2149 7.48 1028 0 15266.59 22411385 11/1/2003 0.213331 7.56 1661 0 15300.8 22432308 11/29/2003 0.219121 7.34 1661 0 15362.21 22452000 12/27/2003 0.234017 6.86 1661 0 15415.77 22469385 1/24/2004 0.240264 6.63 1776 0 15558.28 22486538 2/21/2004 0.221394 7.29 1776 0 15713.42 22503000 3/20/2004 0.216112 7.54 1776 0 15882.71 22518615 4/17/2004 0.207387 7.85 1167 0 16027.75 22534846 5/15/2004 0.204976 7.96 1167 0 16208.14 22551154 6/12/2004 0.199503 8.2 1167 0 16208.14 22551154 7/10/2004 0.194392 8.39 2125 0 16294.47 22570000 8/7/2004 0.195681 8.3 2125 0 16334.05 22588846

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116 Table B.1 Continued Period PCGal (gallons) realP (dollars) GRP FieldStaff (0,1) PDINC (dollars) POP 9/4/2004 0.199555 8.13 2125 0 16405.58 22609692 10/2/2004 0.202805 8 2125 0 16470.22 22630846 10/30/2004 0.205025 7.97 2125 0 16681.8 22651462 11/27/2004 0.216017 7.51 2125 0 16761.97 22670769 12/25/2004 0.22092 7.33 2125 0 17389.99 22687769 1/22/2005 0.235264 6.97 2125 0 16958.19 22704615 Source: ACNielsen and Florid a Department of Citrus

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117 Table B.2: Southern Region Data Summary Table, January 1997 through January 2005. Period PCGal (gallons) realP (dollars) GRP FieldStaff (0,1) PDINC (dollars) POP 1/25/1997 0.255594 2.043724 0 1 9303.213 7244367 2/22/1997 0.244339 2.14991 0 1 9379.054 7244367 3/22/1997 0.252416 2.036548 0 1 9453.28 7244367 4/19/1997 0.241841 2.144445 0 1 9476.631 7244367 5/17/1997 0.233472 2.234245 0 1 9500.974 7244367 6/14/1997 0.228921 2.284535 0 1 9500.974 7244367 7/12/1997 0.22683 2.294032 0 1 9554.04 7244367 8/9/1997 0.232902 2.216382 0 1 9608.493 7244367 9/6/1997 0.247528 2.064193 0 1 9685.627 7244367 10/4/1997 0.248819 2.026096 0 1 9756.308 7244367 11/1/1997 0.252106 2.000541 0 1 9827.704 7244367 11/29/1997 0.258183 1.934055 0 1 9889.13 7244367 12/27/1997 0.255246 1.955116 0 1 9930.596 7244367 1/24/1998 0.26518 1.836334 0 1 10045.54 7334525 2/21/1998 0.259863 1.851855 0 1 10129.44 7334525 3/21/1998 0.261134 1.842381 0 1 10210.33 7334525 4/18/1998 0.245519 1.991006 0 1 10275.36 7334525 5/16/1998 0.23944 2.032483 792 1 10354.24 7334525 6/13/1998 0.236888 2.059778 792 1 10354.24 7334525 7/11/1998 0.23463 2.097943 792 1 10415.05 7334525 8/8/1998 0.233314 2.112686 792 1 10475.16 7334525 9/5/1998 0.246632 1.997927 846 1 10544.04 7334525 10/3/1998 0.248966 1.982765 846 1 10589.34 7334525 10/31/1998 0.25399 1.925383 418 1 10656.23 7334525 11/28/1998 0.254449 1.982086 418 1 10703.13 7334525 12/26/1998 0.249713 2.060212 418 1 10722.67 7334525 1/23/1999 0.261038 2.001161 1466 1 10796.48 7420650 2/20/1999 0.251758 2.116346 1466 1 10838.08 7420650 3/20/1999 0.258337 2.048241 1466 1 10890.83 7420650 4/17/1999 0.24645 2.14286 1466 1 10996.46 7420650 5/15/1999 0.233875 2.259203 1140 1 11035.18 7420650 6/12/1999 0.234014 2.248776 1140 1 11035.18 7420650 7/10/1999 0.222191 2.381842 1140 1 11068.59 7420650 8/7/1999 0.226885 2.318894 892 1 11135.06 7420650 9/4/1999 0.237477 2.186739 892 1 11226.61 7420650 10/2/1999 0.23978 2.152523 892 1 11293.79 7420650 10/30/1999 0.245667 2.101779 675 1 11422.13 7420650 11/27/1999 0.252858 2.071109 675 1 11512.22 7420650 12/25/1999 0.250783 2.096342 675 1 11625.49 7420650 1/22/2000 0.265785 1.915313 675 1 11832.37 7710450 2/19/2000 0.254928 1.96484 996 1 11988.56 7710450

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118 Table B.2 Continued Period PCGal (gallons) realP (dollars) GRP FieldStaff (0,1) PDINC (dollars) POP 3/18/2000 0.253829 1.948038 996 1 12168.04 7710450 4/15/2000 0.24176 2.045504 996 1 12180.8 7710450 5/13/2000 0.237301 2.064551 1102 1 12180.8 7710450 6/10/2000 0.228835 2.146959 1102 1 12242.87 7710450 7/8/2000 0.225682 2.165995 1102 1 12368.32 7710450 8/5/2000 0.232305 2.081741 460 1 12514.87 7710450 9/2/2000 0.240599 2.021151 460 1 12553.92 7710450 9/30/2000 0.242684 1.970517 460 1 12665.86 7710450 10/28/2000 0.24526 1.960351 705 1 12718.01 7710450 11/25/2000 0.249825 1.942444 705 1 12720.79 7710450 12/23/2000 0.25372 1.932068 705 1 12723.05 7710450 1/20/2001 0.268257 1.780934 705 1 12918.53 7735842 2/17/2001 0.25671 1.861344 1090 1 12995.14 7735842 3/17/2001 0.261759 1.793358 1090 1 13050.43 7735842 4/14/2001 0.251672 1.881797 1090 1 13050.43 7735842 5/12/2001 0.240881 1.950599 1646 1 13081.22 7735842 6/9/2001 0.231869 2.029308 1646 1 13153.89 7735842 7/7/2001 0.227933 2.081766 1646 1 13217.75 7735842 8/4/2001 0.229926 2.075982 225 1 13402.85 7735842 9/1/2001 0.236743 1.976752 225 1 13643.18 7735842 9/29/2001 0.232947 2.015679 225 1 13606.61 7735842 10/27/2001 0.233045 2.014576 1071 1 13338.7 7735842 11/24/2001 0.230547 2.060049 1071 1 13346.69 7735842 12/22/2001 0.194853 2.070093 1071 1 13331.48 7735842 1/19/2002 0.209327 1.894319 1071 1 13643.61 7833721 2/16/2002 0.197715 1.989012 1227 1 13757.45 7833721 3/16/2002 0.204204 1.910107 1227 1 13896.51 7833721 4/13/2002 0.20103 1.898915 1227 1 13896.51 7833721 5/11/2002 0.194553 1.954153 1456 1 14069.53 7833721 6/8/2002 0.188639 1.983209 1456 1 14102.43 7833721 7/6/2002 0.188886 1.980211 1456 1 14152.01 7833721 8/3/2002 0.192311 1.950613 360 1 14135.69 7833721 8/31/2002 0.196347 1.897468 360 0 14178.26 7833721 9/28/2002 0.192874 1.909566 360 0 14212.12 7833721 10/26/2002 0.189545 1.932599 66 0 14258.52 7833721 11/23/2002 0.193249 1.908292 66 0 14279.37 7833721 12/21/2002 0.194642 1.883318 66 0 14283.5 7833721 1/18/2003 0.20381 1.794421 66 0 14428.98 7935129 2/15/2003 0.198652 1.802143 0 0 14601.68 7935129 3/15/2003 0.193065 1.863694 0 0 14761.24 7935129 4/12/2003 0.183128 1.949915 0 0 14761.24 7935129

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119 Table B.2 Continued Period PCGal (gallons) realP (dollars) GRP FieldStaff (0,1) PDINC (dollars) POP 5/10/2003 0.182341 1.937717 1648 0 14762.45 7935129 6/7/2003 0.174238 2.051551 1648 0 14824.41 7935129 7/5/2003 0.171346 2.056103 1648 0 14906.15 7935129 8/2/2003 0.171775 2.040635 1258 0 15152.07 7935129 8/30/2003 0.173954 1.992683 1258 0 15359.27 7935129 9/27/2003 0.17637 1.912238 1258 0 15266.59 7935129 11/1/2003 0.176287 1.925893 681 0 15300.8 7935129 11/29/2003 0.182052 1.922662 681 0 15362.21 7935129 12/27/2003 0.191945 1.796618 681 0 15415.77 7935129 1/24/2004 0.189886 1.705539 681 0 15558.28 8037800 2/21/2004 0.177159 1.865056 882 0 15713.42 8037800 3/20/2004 0.170495 1.967981 882 0 15882.71 8037800 4/17/2004 0.166515 1.988053 882 0 16027.75 8037800 5/15/2004 0.162042 1.983987 1144 0 16208.14 8037800 6/12/2004 0.160171 1.969327 1144 0 16208.14 8037800 7/10/2004 0.154254 2.017135 1144 0 16294.47 8037800 8/7/2004 0.157715 2.018863 1009 0 16334.05 8037800 9/4/2004 0.161153 1.971726 1009 0 16405.58 8037800 10/2/2004 0.158417 1.985399 1009 0 16470.22 8037800 10/30/2004 0.1613 1.942906 1028 0 16681.8 8037800 11/27/2004 0.171863 1.828878 1028 0 16761.97 8037800 12/25/2004 0.170697 1.840964 1028 0 17389.99 8037800 1/22/2005 0.177964 1.748462 1028 0 16958.19 8149613 Source: ACNielsen and Florid a Department of Citrus

PAGE 132

120 Table B.3: Weighted Average Price (Nati onal), based upon Prices and Quantity for various Product Forms Q1, P1 represents quantity purchased and price per gallon of Frozen Concentrate Q2, P2 represents quantity purchased and price per gallon of Not-from-Concentrate Q3, P3 represents quantity purchased and price per gallon of Reconsistuted Q4, P4 represents quantity purchased and price per gallon of Shelf Stable P’ represents the weighted price Period Q1 (gallons) P1 (dollars) Q2 (gallons) P2 (dollars) Q3 (gallons) P3 (dollars) Q4 (gallons) P4 (dollars) P' (dollars) 10/7/1995 18115522 2.72 148628384.77 291058023.25 8672964.76 3.48 11/4/1995 17799581 2.68 147074274.74 293803413.23 8851574.69 3.46 12/2/1995 18537957 2.70 148774454.82 294782073.26 8618574.67 3.44 12/30/1995 19284408 2.76 167196424.72 300174893.35 8468644.62 3.31 1/27/1996 19502988 2.78 170068744.70 308575053.35 8723094.65 3.25 2/24/1996 18449781 2.79 155819474.72 296809323.35 8318614.78 3.45 3/23/1996 18811689 2.80 154781574.76 295820263.38 8100614.84 3.46 4/20/1996 16360518 2.97 153114324.77 289854333.41 7726464.93 3.72 5/18/1996 16091384 3.00 147258024.88 276936813.48 7701855.00 3.92 6/15/1996 14894082 3.13 143827894.99 273075883.51 7533535.00 4.14 7/13/1996 14391514 3.19 142290144.99 267538223.55 7539824.95 4.27 8/10/1996 14725551 3.15 145129594.99 272337033.59 7471984.99 4.19 9/7/1996 15199621 3.12 149218964.99 282065043.57 7668234.98 4.04 10/5/1996 16397568 3.02 148603545.00 292540543.56 7862785.11 3.87 11/2/1996 16038009 3.06 156458494.95 294727973.56 8446934.95 3.82 11/30/1996 17171684 3.07 162015374.92 303472373.60 7826635.08 3.69 12/28/1996 17628639 3.04 171795664.94 310593213.61 7653895.00 3.57 1/25/1997 17870641 3.01 178502664.94 327003973.55 7864265.03 3.40 2/22/1997 16776575 3.00 171370604.95 309939843.57 7980085.00 3.60 3/22/1997 17403870 2.91 168775064.98 317448083.56 8049055.09 3.51 4/19/1997 15474406 3.00 173855164.92 308856733.54 7907525.07 3.64 5/17/1997 14917755 3.03 163984614.98 305013133.56 7569825.10 3.79 6/14/1997 13503852 3.09 169575484.90 293154773.57 7342935.02 3.92 7/12/1997 13095496 3.07 160872984.98 291484683.53 6982854.97 4.01 8/9/1997 14240707 3.00 166031214.99 295430433.53 6877855.00 3.86 9/6/1997 14241999 2.95 177675124.92 299899113.55 7269575.01 3.73 10/4/1997 15044966 2.92 177726164.95 318368123.48 7509475.18 3.55 11/1/1997 15279402 2.90 190443754.82 320300713.46 7571855.13 3.42 11/29/1997 15674024 2.95 193605184.85 323547323.49 7331875.10 3.40 12/27/1997 15933834 2.86 195199954.84 325288103.47 7136775.02 3.34 1/24/1998 16916282 2.80 207826584.77 348621633.41 7410344.99 3.07 2/21/1998 15910070 2.77 202991534.76 329488893.43 7308435.06 3.22 3/21/1998 16071682 2.72 200087324.79 327312493.43 7320055.13 3.23 4/18/1998 13926705 2.84 210701704.65 304025403.47 6797325.17 3.42 5/16/1998 13531072 2.86 191877584.78 303619633.46 6954015.17 3.58

PAGE 133

121 Table B.3 Continued Period Q1 (gallons) P1 (dollars) Q1 (gallons) P1 (dollars) Q1 (gallons) P1 (dollars) Q1 (gallons) P1 (dollars) P’ (dollars) 6/13/1998 12481789 2.99 200790914.71 292644933.50 7036085.11 3.68 7/11/1998 12199541 3.01 193551194.86 286140203.51 6797755.06 3.83 8/8/1998 12362310 2.98 201993024.80 285531603.53 6775795.07 3.76 9/5/1998 13013193 3.00 200233714.92 304833833.52 7274685.19 3.65 10/3/1998 13573235 2.91 210862784.85 308721383.56 7839715.29 3.51 10/31/1998 13775645 2.91 215670814.82 312336173.60 8275605.42 3.47 11/28/1998 13690475 3.01 231061304.88 307121903.68 7698375.33 3.50 12/26/1998 13685924 3.07 221631965.11 303983263.77 7231265.26 3.67 1/23/1999 15692806 3.04 228778125.33 337058703.84 7685985.27 3.43 2/20/1999 13159783 3.18 224401225.29 313423653.93 7409845.40 3.77 3/20/1999 14432589 3.08 227286665.36 320623443.87 7629615.35 3.61 4/17/1999 12069086 3.24 221368415.38 302643403.91 6919765.39 3.94 5/15/1999 11837114 3.22 209892865.45 291200013.88 6824725.45 4.11 6/12/1999 11446992 3.25 218628795.32 289555663.87 6663485.40 4.06 7/10/1999 10680259 3.28 208714965.41 273510923.91 6334285.26 4.34 8/7/1999 11013151 3.21 212610005.34 277715013.88 6431465.25 4.20 9/4/1999 11125603 3.24 221974235.33 278932263.91 6637255.33 4.14 10/2/1999 11829532 3.17 222572565.37 292539093.85 7435465.38 3.96 10/30/1999 11871633 3.24 229557735.37 299221873.89 7175465.47 3.92 11/27/1999 11971622 3.25 238548245.38 309830883.92 6779825.47 3.82 12/25/1999 12838831 3.24 235268335.38 319895533.93 6792975.38 3.74 1/22/2000 13289166 3.23 250568915.50 356200833.93 7419755.33 3.47 2/19/2000 12463941 3.18 250105595.31 328368193.91 6528475.45 3.59 3/18/2000 12689339 3.11 244926045.36 319314973.92 6688885.45 3.65 4/15/2000 10998201 3.18 237445835.40 311597243.90 6429745.48 3.85 5/13/2000 11169937 3.11 237857715.36 300242983.93 6509345.50 3.89 6/10/2000 10225349 3.27 223002785.44 294835113.91 6324805.42 4.13 7/8/2000 9765904 3.29 227920815.32 280868743.98 5951975.31 4.23 8/5/2000 10067064 3.24 236103435.32 283771263.97 5457185.41 4.12 9/2/2000 10424244 3.21 239030635.34 302486413.92 5616225.42 3.94 9/30/2000 10673240 3.24 246399755.34 306311173.91 5977265.54 3.86 10/28/2000 11234861 3.11 249340985.33 308162223.94 6328545.43 3.77 11/25/2000 10984744 3.22 265088205.26 311716633.99 5873185.45 3.72 12/23/2000 11834184 3.22 270317325.25 330861293.98 5831865.39 3.54 1/20/2001 12219115 3.09 277144695.29 343694843.94 5638325.35 3.39 2/17/2001 10812600 3.16 270744365.30 331921183.97 5860825.45 3.58 3/17/2001 11437156 3.11 272417845.30 333177753.91 6132905.26 3.49 4/14/2001 10655497 3.12 274328335.27 316515483.95 5731155.40 3.62 5/12/2001 9968102 3.14 264098705.30 304507263.88 5783695.40 3.76 6/9/2001 9146949 3.25 258739285.36 278787613.99 5590625.31 4.09 7/7/2001 9015329 3.25 254442995.35 280352584.00 5705635.25 4.11

PAGE 134

122 Table B.3 Continued Period Q1 (gallons) P1 (dollars) Q1 (gallons) P1 (dollars) Q1 (gallons) P1 (dollars) Q1 (gallons) P1 (dollars) P’ (dollars) 8/4/2001 8966972 3.23 257734545.36 280241313.94 6507715.31 4.06 9/1/2001 9034527 3.23 270150715.26 278024144.00 6860435.38 3.99 9/29/2001 9847287 3.14 269004405.28 280018673.98 7629335.45 3.91 10/27/2001 9932741 3.12 264095315.33 286406503.96 7648675.38 3.88 11/24/2001 9643258 3.21 276096325.28 277187934.02 7378035.34 3.93 12/22/2001 9565773 3.24 266696175.36 293135783.90 7278215.25 3.87 1/19/2002 9940640 3.18 288014915.27 318472793.90 7386745.14 3.56 2/16/2002 8936535 3.23 272458765.34 303965913.89 7253995.42 3.80 3/16/2002 9449581 3.17 282897855.29 301471253.92 7139205.43 3.71 4/13/2002 8726171 3.17 289958365.22 292166753.89 7495145.32 3.73 5/11/2002 8195658 3.21 290368525.20 285913443.81 6974775.38 3.77 6/8/2002 7832437 3.27 284259865.19 269695423.89 6952855.29 3.98 7/6/2002 7495590 3.31 267101995.29 274706503.83 6525635.32 4.09 8/3/2002 7546046 3.28 274045645.20 279628183.83 6690035.25 3.97 8/31/2002 7621707 3.25 279137335.14 279855073.81 6427775.38 3.91 9/28/2002 7755301 3.31 288128365.15 284132133.80 6909335.32 3.83 10/26/2002 7976950 3.24 274515205.23 285183703.87 6792775.27 3.92 11/23/2002 7842031 3.33 288292495.18 286003223.88 6416075.40 3.86 12/21/2002 8335439 3.32 300321825.16 288979683.88 6443005.26 3.74 1/18/2003 8547714 3.31 316768915.15 301481873.90 7087695.11 3.58 2/15/2003 7862600 3.36 308962555.23 292214433.88 6611365.36 3.73 3/15/2003 7917715 3.32 302943265.23 287318753.85 6595165.32 3.77 4/12/2003 7533346 3.31 283176965.30 271502303.84 6335475.38 4.01 5/10/2003 7110950 3.34 286856015.18 263777543.87 6726155.23 4.05 6/7/2003 6596185 3.42 280627405.25 252983233.92 6318845.27 4.27 7/5/2003 6364537 3.41 277063605.27 250143383.89 6078955.33 4.32 8/2/2003 6120804 3.47 277364875.28 249257273.83 6309465.11 4.33 8/30/2003 6332240 3.46 289841545.23 250420033.84 6095695.27 4.21 9/27/2003 6665253 3.35 303508135.16 249330383.80 6615935.36 4.04 11/1/2003 6210344 3.41 295788585.14 257518993.82 6703885.31 4.08 11/29/2003 6704672 3.38 318547475.04 247450953.90 6516375.30 3.98 12/27/2003 7292658 3.39 335163915.11 269514573.86 5963565.26 3.72 1/24/2004 7422189 3.31 332681285.15 288995133.79 6453505.21 3.58 2/21/2004 6045455 3.41 305745595.18 275773643.78 5691265.28 3.91 3/20/2004 6315690 3.30 306039785.20 257611843.87 5841195.39 4.02 4/17/2004 5789307 3.37 294362925.24 249990953.78 5298775.35 4.17 5/15/2004 5709321 3.37 285707765.25 252631573.75 5486355.32 4.21 6/12/2004 5547913 3.40 282778075.20 241049113.79 5567015.18 4.33 7/10/2004 5346117 3.40 275742795.20 236086643.74 5074045.24 4.43 8/7/2004 5397558 3.38 273030525.19 242529013.74 5091215.10 4.38 9/4/2004 5434543 3.39 288443465.10 238941103.77 4814145.41 4.29

PAGE 135

123 Table B.3 Continued Period Q1 (gallons) P1 (dollars) Q1 (gallons) P1 (dollars) Q1 (gallons) P1 (dollars) Q1 (gallons) P1 (dollars) P’ (dollars) 10/2/2004 5553085 3.36 284895745.23 251039843.71 518790 5.54 4.21 10/30/2004 5357433 3.39 287712195.18 257069063.74 537969 5.47 4.18 11/27/2004 5779990 3.34 311394015.11 262014673.75 543579 5.45 3.93 12/25/2004 6091988 3.36 320318715.14 265207303.75 513819 5.33 3.85 1/22/2005 6210554 3.37 322202215.38 304623973.71 547365 5.36 3.65 Source: ACNielsen and Florid a Department of Citrus

PAGE 136

124 Table B.4: Weighted Average Price (Regi onal), based upon Prices and Quantity for various Product Forms Q1, P1 represents quantity purchased and price per gallon of Frozen Concentrate Q2, P2 represents quantity purchased and price per gallon of Not-from-Concentrate Q3, P3 represents quantity purchased and price per gallon of Reconsistuted Q4, P4 represents quantity purchased and price per gallon of Shelf Stable P’ represents the weighted price Period Q1 (gallons) P1 (dollars) Q2 (gallons) P2 (dollars) Q3 (gallons) P3 (dollars) Q4 (gallons) P4 (dollars) P' (dollars) 1/25/1997 4832151 3.10 49562614.94 138384213.30 444193 4.56 3.61898 2/22/1997 4587130 3.08 49715644.91 130191143.37 433282 4.60 3.667161 3/22/1997 4853168 2.91 50463664.88 134329553.33 439209 4.61 3.594172 4/19/1997 4204335 3.04 50224284.91 131143153.32 434731 4.60 3.647426 5/17/1997 4037186 3.09 46866544.96 128338753.32 429908 4.58 3.654412 6/14/1997 3771715 3.16 48102434.89 125574993.34 419571 4.47 3.676599 7/12/1997 3656060 3.14 47749004.94 125237873.31 407386 4.48 3.665907 8/9/1997 3910314 3.09 47722654.99 128318173.27 419536 4.44 3.634581 9/6/1997 4102225 2.99 52039494.91 135718003.28 433395 4.46 3.616329 10/4/1997 4093039 2.93 51727514.92 137293213.23 437873 4.53 3.576948 11/1/1997 4209765 2.91 52573394.89 138334433.27 442007 4.51 3.587731 11/29/1997 4308520 2.95 56380394.76 139211413.23 447124 4.49 3.558649 12/27/1997 4353200 2.87 56959924.74 135425373.26 446532 4.42 3.561793 1/24/1998 4385387 2.84 60856274.78 143688323.20 444740 4.40 3.538022 2/21/1998 4370405 2.75 59377564.75 140390363.18 430469 4.48 3.503194 3/21/1998 4190017 2.81 61835894.70 140810573.18 444162 4.48 3.519511 4/18/1998 3608375 2.95 61119724.72 132642643.23 425330 4.51 3.597077 5/16/1998 3601886 2.97 57717784.75 130301783.19 426486 4.49 3.5764 6/13/1998 3535758 3.00 58759544.71 127488993.21 426384 4.44 3.591326 7/11/1998 3431172 3.03 57795654.82 127386313.23 422326 4.41 3.631078 8/8/1998 3449595 3.00 60692044.72 123062803.29 421149 4.36 3.655427 9/5/1998 3683289 2.98 62122634.81 131822913.27 438256 4.46 3.653302 10/3/1998 3683593 2.93 61568324.81 134502873.31 447917 4.58 3.660655 10/31/1998 3685415 2.93 67657824.64 133103963.31 456042 4.61 3.650664 11/28/1998 3698946 3.01 67849114.89 133289333.39 448656 4.59 3.777324 12/26/1998 3646512 3.07 65843275.02 131464543.46 432593 4.56 3.848489 1/23/1999 4043125 3.06 68465585.18 138554993.60 436756 4.65 3.960082 2/20/1999 3517137 3.22 67930685.25 135457883.65 430668 4.74 4.053305 3/20/1999 3705278 3.18 67948285.36 139781193.61 443172 4.69 4.039647 4/17/1999 3302785 3.24 69269105.31 131240463.63 420871 4.71 4.085003 5/15/1999 3141142 3.29 64546725.33 125602293.61 405556 4.71 4.077225 6/12/1999 3178474 3.24 65596305.29 124384523.62 398446 4.64 4.068025 7/10/1999 2961070 3.28 64386275.27 116559613.65 378728 4.58 4.101009 8/7/1999 2965383 3.30 66220675.28 119139763.62 385843 4.55 4.094966 9/4/1999 3216186 3.20 71715355.15 121256553.63 395674 4.65 4.061095 10/2/1999 3175254 3.16 68802675.29 126637733.58 411932 4.79 4.052723 10/30/1999 3249261 3.18 71209015.25 129149623.60 413979 4.78 4.059541

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125 Table B.4 Continued Period Q1 (gallons) P1 (dollars) Q2 (gallons) P2 (dollars) Q3 (gallons) P3 (dollars) Q4 (gallons) P4 (dollars) P' (dollars) 11/27/1999 3196849 3.31 76952995.24 130946263.65 406073 4.79 4.126796 12/25/1999 3338318 3.32 71826735.25 132592133.68 412447 4.74 4.111134 1/22/2000 3420491 3.32 78789145.36 149149953.70 426750 4.78 4.159103 2/19/2000 3243106 3.29 80972455.17 138294443.70 383092 4.80 4.130808 3/18/2000 3317196 3.19 77768425.29 139618143.67 386864 4.82 4.120047 4/15/2000 2992780 3.21 75462955.32 133094893.66 384456 4.79 4.137761 5/13/2000 2993556 3.16 75096845.25 129119783.63 370851 4.82 4.104173 6/10/2000 2831332 3.26 69513885.35 127887213.59 366044 4.79 4.101964 7/8/2000 2722562 3.27 72382355.22 122860203.63 374649 4.66 4.115807 8/5/2000 2879633 3.17 76690275.14 123819313.64 354739 4.74 4.092431 9/2/2000 2899904 3.23 77723465.20 130817143.63 362703 4.79 4.107746 9/30/2000 2910613 3.19 78674325.19 131873453.57 360243 4.79 4.069551 10/28/2000 2915619 3.18 81320385.18 131600823.63 376091 4.77 4.105648 11/25/2000 2952796 3.26 84652215.15 132496153.68 373742 4.76 4.140172 12/23/2000 3142695 3.25 84281135.21 134874473.73 373623 4.69 4.173163 1/20/2001 3212608 3.19 89552795.19 144373853.65 372266 4.68 4.119595 2/17/2001 2935654 3.17 86506225.22 138676093.67 362446 4.75 4.14915 3/17/2001 3006961 3.16 88916415.21 140604673.58 364978 4.74 4.096035 4/14/2001 2791427 3.20 88948705.19 132639793.63 359383 4.73 4.144788 5/12/2001 2690898 3.17 84419595.25 127383573.59 353210 4.72 4.138873 6/9/2001 2506917 3.26 84553995.25 120137483.60 342086 4.67 4.176246 7/7/2001 2524896 3.23 81757675.28 118704373.67 351183 4.66 4.211689 8/4/2001 2545056 3.21 88000885.13 113787793.74 398802 4.73 4.229205 9/1/2001 2584983 3.16 87301595.16 120642633.61 428920 4.83 4.15513 9/29/2001 2639645 3.13 87447445.13 115841693.69 457954 4.85 4.187244 10/27/2001 2489878 3.17 85060135.24 119829953.62 457497 4.82 4.181437 11/24/2001 2523049 3.19 88203245.23 113903003.68 451545 4.82 4.236324 12/22/2001 2496134 3.24 79541345.37 122219403.61 448596 4.72 4.194217 1/19/2002 2592221 3.23 90095135.27 130335603.60 423443 4.82 4.180248 2/16/2002 2451943 3.17 84027835.36 126889273.64 419166 4.91 4.219015 3/16/2002 2326026 3.21 91967415.27 126539633.60 428947 4.89 4.208972 4/13/2002 2305240 3.17 94895315.13 121734353.57 448897 4.83 4.162057 5/11/2002 2230308 3.20 92121525.10 115871283.53 430613 4.88 4.138176 6/8/2002 2122711 3.25 92512995.10 113635483.52 424309 4.81 4.150871 7/6/2002 2088868 3.25 87584175.20 117972523.46 421575 4.80 4.125095 8/3/2002 2097199 3.23 92024845.05 116642663.52 427298 4.75 4.11677 8/31/2002 2222839 3.19 90629545.17 121431413.45 407328 4.88 4.106038 9/28/2002 2139708 3.23 91901365.13 121208783.52 416351 4.74 4.134197 10/26/2002 2202102 3.17 90302085.20 120683873.56 406950 4.75 4.171999 11/23/2002 2130298 3.26 93546705.15 120587293.52 385863 4.83 4.154766 12/21/2002 2284583 3.26 95691745.11 121631663.57 392830 4.74 4.161822 1/18/2003 2321021 3.22 100972985.12 126399593.57 428076 4.76 4.174002 2/15/2003 2226357 3.24 103645345.18 122842633.57 404106 4.83 4.219862

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126 Table B.4 Continued Period Q1 (gallons) P1 (dollars) Q2 (gallons) P2 (dollars) Q3 (gallons) P3 (dollars) Q4 (gallons) P4 (dollars) P' (dollars) 3/15/2003 2143333 3.25 98690525.16 120036603.60 374887 4.81 4.218264 4/12/2003 2091741 3.25 92096995.25 114828013.52 367992 4.86 4.205793 5/10/2003 1987929 3.24 95016925.05 113893593.56 384966 4.83 4.164257 6/7/2003 1840719 3.29 93253175.15 106889563.58 365804 4.80 4.23358 7/5/2003 1811608 3.26 94401835.13 104314133.58 388240 4.81 4.234571 8/2/2003 1706220 3.40 94208455.15 106191523.49 365544 4.71 4.206548 8/30/2003 1868996 3.37 96801685.14 107053903.52 391582 4.69 4.223192 9/27/2003 1908122 3.23 99784055.07 108067713.48 398518 4.77 4.166129 11/1/2003 1727412 3.33 102525295.01 108261173.53 394190 4.85 4.188509 11/29/2003 1907272 3.29 105972014.97 105354113.60 415612 4.76 4.215985 12/27/2003 2026698 3.31 112233615.06 116215653.60 364759 4.71 4.238218 1/24/2004 2135520 3.19 110388365.10 124195553.51 400931 4.72 4.179903 2/21/2004 1691499 3.39 101654325.18 118435593.52 332370 4.68 4.227468 3/20/2004 1683357 3.32 102871375.18 106652623.65 340144 4.79 4.325082 4/17/2004 1753435 3.25 99529845.16 103235953.58 310394 4.75 4.274705 5/15/2004 1667440 3.31 95049685.20 105778823.49 321566 4.69 4.229332 6/12/2004 1674755 3.27 93915695.15 106332733.47 328386 4.60 4.185196 7/10/2004 1601506 3.34 94966475.12 100968623.46 300488 4.62 4.201786 8/7/2004 1581403 3.31 94165645.09 101199023.45 285283 4.61 4.176426 9/4/2004 1600001 3.34 100048115.05 101142023.47 279103 4.78 4.195682 10/2/2004 1602971 3.31 95631315.13 104710853.49 290113 4.92 4.212197 10/30/2004 1551965 3.35 100138315.03 104493083.52 309327 4.83 4.206309 11/27/2004 1704856 3.29 105385535.03 110398313.52 315177 4.83 4.193761 12/25/2004 1737620 3.34 106344075.03 110686113.56 291156 4.71 4.21712 1/22/2005 1734389 3.36 111539645.23 120277543.57 319150 4.72 4.302428 Source: ACNielsen and Florid a Department of Citrus

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127 APPENDIX C SAS PROGRAM USED TO ESTIMATE DEMAND SAS Program Used to Estimate U.S. Demand for Orange Juice OPTIONS PS= 74 MISSING='.' NODATE N ONUMBER; TITLE '; PROC IMPORT DATAFILE="E:/ANALYSIS/ndata.CSV" OUT=OJN DBMS=CSV REPLACE; *TRANSFORM VARIABLES Per Capita Income and Lagged Dependent Variable PROC CONTENTS ; DATA OJN; SET OJN; PCINC=PDIN C/POP; PCGAL1=LAG(PCGAL); *CORRELATION ANALYSIS PROC CORR ; VAR PCGAL REALP PCINC NEWS ART MAGART GRP FieldStaff PCGAL1; *CALCULATE MEANS FOR ELASTICITY PROC MEANS MEAN MIN MAX N; VAR PC GAL REALP PCINC NEWSART MAGART GRP FieldStaff; OUTPUT OUT=MM MEAN=MPCGAL MREALP MPCINC MNEWSART MMAGART MGRP MStaff; DATA MM; SET MM; KEEP MPCGAL MREALP MPCINC MNEWSART MMAGART MGRP MStaff; *BASE MODEL ANALYSIS All Variables, test for autocorrelation PROC AutoREG DATA=OJN OUTEST=BNBase; NBase: MODEL PCGAL = REALP PCINC NEWSART MAGART GRP FieldStaff SDM2 SDM3 SDM4 SDM5 SDM6 SDM7 SDM8 SDM9 SDM10 SDM11 SDM12 SDM13/nlag= 1 ; *MODEL WITHOUT INSIGNIFICANT VARIABLES Significant Variables from Base M odel only, test for autocorrelation PROC AutoREG DATA=OJN OUTEST=BNBase; NBase: MODEL PCGAL = REALP PCINC NEWSART FieldStaff SDM2 SDM3 SDM4 SDM5 SDM6 SDM7 SDM8 SDM9 SDM10 SDM11 SDM12 SDM13/nlag= 1 ;

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128 *FINAL MODEL Significant Variables from Base Model only and Cochran-Orcutt Modification, test for autocorrelation PROC AUTOREG DATA=OJN OUTEST=BNMOD2; NMod2: MODEL PCGAL = PCGA L1 REALP PCINC NEWSART FieldStaff SDM2 SDM3 SDM4 SDM5 SDM6 SDM7 SDM8 SDM9 SDM10 SDM11 SDM12 SDM13/LAGDEP=PCGAL1; *ELASTICITIES AT THE MEAN DATA BNMOD2; SET BNMOD2; KEEP RE ALP PCINC NEWSART FieldStaff; RENAME REALP=B2 PCINC=B3 NEWSART=B4 FieldStaff=B5; DATA BM2; MERGE BNMOD2 MM; PELAS=B2*MREALP/MPCGAL; IELAS=B3*MPCINC/MPCGAL; NELAS=B4*MNEWSART/MPCGAL; FELAS=B5*MStaff/MPCGAL; LABEL PELAS=PRICE ELASTICIT Y IELAS=INCOME ELASTICITY NELAS=NEWS ART ELASTIC ITY FELAS=Field Staff Elasticity; PROC PRINT LABEL; VAR PELAS IELAS NELAS FELAS; RUN;

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129 SAS Program Used to Estimate South ern Region Demand for Orange Juice OPTIONS PS= 74 MISSING='.' NODATE N ONUMBER; TITLE '; PROC IMPORT DATAFILE="E:/ANALYSIS/rdata2.CSV" OUT=OJR DBMS=CSV REPLACE; *TRANSFORM VARIABLES Per Capita Income and Lagged Dependent Variable PROC CONTENTS ; DATA OJR; SET OJR; PCINC=rPDI NC/POP; PCGAL1=LAG(PCGAL); *CORRELATION ANALYSIS PROC CORR ; VAR PCGAL REALP PCINC REGA RT GRP FieldStaff PCGAL1; *CALCULATE MEANS FOR ELASTICITY PROC MEANS MEAN MIN MAX N; VAR PC GAL REALP PCINC REGART FieldStaff NATART ART; OUTPUT OUT=MM MEAN=MPCGAL MREALP MPCINC MREGART MFIELDStaff MNATART MART; DATA MM; SET MM; KEEP MPCGAL MREALP MPCINC MREGART MFIELDStaff MNATART MART; *FINAL MODEL Significant Variables from Base Model only and Cochran-Orcutt Modification, test for autocorrelation PROC AUTOREG DATA=OJR OUTEST=BRMOD2; BRMod2: MODEL PCGAL = PCGAL1 RE ALP PCINC REGART FieldStaff SDM2 SDM3 SDM4 SDM5 SDM6 SDM7 SDM8 SDM9 SDM10 SDM11 SDM12 SDM13/LAGDEP=PCGAL1; *MODEL #2: ELASTICITY AT THE MEAN DATA BRMOD2; SET BRMOD2; KEEP REALP PCINC REGART FieldStaff; RENAME REALP=B2 PCINC=B3 REGART=B4 FieldStaff=B5; DATA BM2; MERGE BRMOD2 MM; PELAS=B2*MREALP/MPCGAL; IELAS=B3*MPCINC/MPCGAL; NELAS=B4*MREGART/MPCGAL; FELAS=B5*MStaff/MPCGAL; LABEL PELAS=PRICE ELASTICIT Y IELAS=INCOME ELASTICITY NELAS=NEWS ART ELASTIC ITY FELAS=Field Staff Elasticity; PROC PRINT LABEL; VAR PELAS IELAS NELAS FELAS; RUN ;

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LIST OF REFERENCES AC Nielsen. 2003. “Low Carb: The New Fat Free.” Consumer Insight Magazine, Trends and Insights. Winter 2003. Alba, J.W. & Hutchinson, J.W. 1987. “D imensions of Consumer Expertise.” Journal of Consumer Research, 13:411-454. American Dietetic Association. 2002. Nutrition and You: Trends 2002. Chicago, Illinois: American Dietetic Association. American Marketing Association. Marketing Terms Dictionary. Accessed May 15, 2005. http://www.marketingpower.com/mg-dictionary.php Audit Bureau of Circulations. 2004. “Top 150 Newspapers.” Accessed February 1, 2005. http://www.accessabc.com/reader/top150.htm Blank, Steven C. 2002. “Is American Agricult ure Near the End of Its ‘Life Cycle?’” Paper presented at Western Agricultural Economics Association/ American Agricultural Economics Association Annua l Meeting, Long Beach, California, July 2002. Breen, Michael J. 1997. “A Cook, a Cardinal, Hi s Priests, and the Press: Deviance as a Trigger for Intermedia Agenda Setting.” Journalism & Mass Communication Quarterly 74(2):348-356. British Nutrition Foundation. 2001. "Facts Behi nd the Headlines: Dieting Crazes." British Nutrition Foundation Nutrition Bulletin 26:117-119. Carney, T. F. 1971. “Content Analysis: A Review Essay.” Historical Methods Newsletter 4(2):52-61. Celsi, Richard L. and Jerry C. Olson. 1988. "T he Role of Involvement in Attention and Comprehension Processes." Journal of Consumer Research 15:210-224. Center for Media and Public Affairs. 2003. "Food for Thought V: Reporting of Diet, Nutrition and Food Safety." International Food Inform ation Council Foundation. Corbett, James J. 1997. “The Journal of Food Distribution Research: A 15-Year Perspective, 1984-1998.” Journal of Food Distribution Research, 30(3):33-37. Dhalla, Nairman K. and Sonia Yaspeth. 1976. “Forget the Product Life Cycle Concept.” Harvard Business Review January-February 1976:102-114.

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Dow Jones Reuters Business Interactive (F activa). Source Details: The Wall Street Journal. Accessed May 15, 2005. http://global.factiva.com.l p.hscl.ufl.edu/en/eSrch/search.a sp (subscription required) Florida Citrus. 1974. “Florida Citrus Showcas e: 50 Years of Progre ss.” Florida Citrus Showcase 50th Anniversary Program Book. February 1974. Florida Department of Agriculture and Cons umer Services. 2003. “Florida Agriculture: Florida’s Economic Engine.” Accesse d July 4, 2005. http://www.floridaagriculture.com/pubs/pubfo rm/pdf/Agriculture_Floridas_Economic_Engine_Ag_Fa cts_Brochure.pdf Florida’s Golden Fruit. 1977. “Glossary of Common Citrus Terms Pr oduction of Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice.” Lakeland, Fl orida: Florida Department of Citrus Gempesaw, Conrado M. and Fe Zinnia Al bay. 1996. “A Content Analysis of the Agricultural and Resource Economics Review.” Agricultural and Resource Economics Review 25(2):171-178. Goldstein, Norm, Ed. 2000. AP Stylebook and Briefing on Media Law. New York: Associated Press. Gruber, Beth. 2002. “The History of Diets and Dieting.” Retrieved September 23, 2004, from http://www.karlloren.com/diet/p119.htm Heller, Robert. 1999. “Stop the Life Cycle in its Tracks.” Management Today. Jan 1997:17. Hertog, J.K. and D.P Fan (1995). “The Impact of Press Coverage on Social Beliefs: The Case of HIV Transmission.” Communication Research, 22/5. Horovitz, Bruce. 2004. “Sugar Business S ours as U.S. Goes Diet Crazy.” USA Today. October 3, 2004. International Food Information Council Foundation. 2003. "Trends in Obesity-Related Media Coverage." IFIC Consumer and Opinion Leader Research November 2003. Johnson, Eugene. 2002. Fundamentals of Marketing 4th Ed. New York: American Management Association. Kalaitzandonakes, Nicholas and Leonie A. Marks. 1999. “Public Opinion of AgBiotech in the US and UK: A Content Analysis Approach.” Paper presented at AAEA annual meeting, Nashville TN, July 1999. Kalaitzandonakes, Nicholas, Leonie A. Marks, and S.S. Vickner. Forthcoming. “Media Coverage of Biotech Food and Infliuence on Consumer Choice.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics, in press.

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Kassarjian, Harold H. 1977. "Content An alysis in Consumer Research." Journal of Consumer Research 4: 8-19. Kennedy, Peter. 1993. A Guide to Economics 3rd Ed Cambridge, Massachusetts: MIT Press. Kolbe, Richard H. and Melissa S. Burnet t. 1991. "Content Analysis Research: An Examination of Applications with Direc tives for Improving Research Reliability and Objectivity." Journal of Consumer Research 18(2):243-250. Landhuis, Esther. 2004. “Researcher s Probe Books’ Popularity.” The Mercury News. November 26, 2004. Lewis, Barbara R. and Dale Littler, eds. 1999. Blackwell Encyclopedic Dictionary of Marketing. Malden, Massachusetts: Blackwell Publishers Inc. Lilien, G. L. and Kotler, P. 1983. Marketing Decision Making. A Model Building Approach. New York: Harper and Row. Lilien, G.L. Kotler, P. and Morrthy, K.S. 1992. Marketing Models. Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey: Prentice-Hall, Inc. MacInnis, Deborah J, Christina Moorman, and Bernard Jaworski. 1991. “Enhancing and Measuring Consumers’ Motivation, Opport unity, and Ability to Process Brand Information from Ads.” Journal of Marketing 55 (October 1991). Magazine Publishers of America. 20 04. “Circulation Fact Sheets and Handbook.” Accessed February 1, 2005. http://www.magazine.org/Circulation/ci rculation_trends_and_magazine_handbook/ Modis, Theodore. 1994. “Life Cycles.” The Futurist. 28(5):20-25. Moorman, Christine and Erika Matulich. 1993. "A Model of Consumers' Preventive Health Behaviors: The Role of Health Motivation and Health Ability." Journal of Consumer Research 20:208-229. Neuendorf, Kimberly A. 2002. The Content Analysis Guidebook. Thousand Oaks, California: Sage Publications. Nielsen Media Research. Glossary of Media Terms. Accessed May 15, 2005. http://www.nielsenmedia.com/glossary/index.htm Piggott, N. E. and T.L. Marsh. 2004. “Does Food Safety Information Impact US Meat Demand?” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 86:154-174. Poole, Nigel and Laura Baron. 1996. "Consumer awareness of citrus fruit attributes." British Food Journal 98(1):23-29.

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Riechert, Bonnie P. 1995. “Science, Society, a nd the Media: Associated Press Coverage of the Human Genome Project.” Paper presented to 18th Annual Communications Research Symposium, Knoxv ille, Tennessee, March 1995. Rogers, Everett M. 1983. Diffusion of Innovations. New York: Free Press. Schwartz, Hillel. Never Satisfied: A Cultural Histor y of Diets, Fantasies, and Fat. New York: Free Press, 1986 Shoemaker, P. & S. Reese. 1996. Mediating the Message: Theo ries of Influence on Mass Media Content. 2nd Ed. White Plains, New York: Longman Publishers. Simmons Market Research. 2002. The U.S. Weight Loss and Diet Control Market 7th Ed. New Orleans, Louisiana: Marigny Research Group. Simmons Market Research. 2004. Weight Loss Trends and Products. New York: Packaged Facts. Sornette, Dider, Thomas Gilbert, Agnes Helmsetter, and Yann Agecon. 2004. “Enodgenous Versus Exogneous Shocks in Complex Networks: An Empirical Test.” Physical Review Letters. 93:228701. Swartz, D.G., and I.E. Strand. 1981. “Avoida nce Costs Associated with Imperfect Information: The Case of Kepone.” Land Economics 57(2):139-150. van Ravenswaay, E.V., and J.P. Hoehn. 1991. “T he Impact of Health Risk Information on Food Demand: A Case Study of Alar and Apples.” In: J. Caswell (Ed.) Economics of Food Safety, St. Louis, Missouri: Elsevi er Applied Science, 155-174. Verbeke, W. and Ward, R., 2001. “A Fres h Meat Almost Ideal Demand System Incorporating Negative TV Pre ss and Advertising Impact.” Agricultural Economics 25(2/3):359-374. Weinraub, Judith. 2004. "Orange Juice Feels Squeeze from Low-Carb Craze." The Miami Herald 20 June 2004.

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BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH Leigh Ann Love is the daughter of W illiam and Mary Love of Calipatria, California. She is an active member of the Oak Park Baptist Church and currently serves as the Director of Youth Ministry. Leigh Ann graduated with her Bachelor of Science degree in agribusiness from California Polytechnic State University San Luis Obispo in 2003, with an emphasis in agricultural marketing. She th en began the Master of Science in food and resource economics at the University of Florida and has taken courses rela ting to Agricultural Marketing and Agribusiness. She remains an active member of the Food Research Distribution Society, Alpha Ze ta Alumni Association, and the American Agricultural Economics Association. Leigh Ann was elec ted AAEA Graduate St udent Section ChairElect for 2005-2006.


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Material Information

Title: The Diet Culture Phenomenon and Its Effect on the United States Orange Juice Industry
Physical Description: Mixed Material
Copyright Date: 2008

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Source Institution: University of Florida
Holding Location: University of Florida
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THE DIET CULTURE PHENOMENON AND ITS EFFECT ON THE UNITED
STATES ORANGE JUICE INDUSTRY
















By

LEIGH ANN LOVE


A THESIS PRESENTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL
OF THE UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT
OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF
MASTER OF SCIENCE

UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA


2005




























Copyright 2005

by

Leigh Ann Love



























This document is dedicated to God, to my friends, and to my family. It is especially
dedicated to Sarah Austin (the best friend every woman should have), Jessica Musengezi
(who had patiently listened to my excitement and exasperations) and to my nephew
Cameron Maximilian Love (may his hopes and dreams be even bigger than his name).









ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

I would like to first express my appreciation to my committee members, Dr.

Thomas Spreen and Dr. Allen Wysocki, for their support and direction. I am especially

grateful to Dr. James Stems, my committee chairman, who has helped to guide my

thoughts and decisions throughout the research process, especially when the thesis topic

was first born in February 2004.

In addition, I would like to thank Dr. Cory Armstrong, of the University of Florida

Journalism and Communication Department, and Dr. Jennifer Robinson, of the

University of Florida Public Relations Department, for their direction and constructive

comments regarding the use and application of the content analysis method used for this

research study. Also, special thanks go to Dr. Elaine Turner, of the University of Florida

Food Science and Human Nutrition Department, for her help with researching the

cultural history of diets and dieting in the United States.

In conclusion, I would like to express my sincerest gratitude to my family and

closest friends for their continued support and encouragement as I pursue my educational

goals. Finally, I thank God for His grace and mercy, and especially for continually

showing me that "Nothing is impossible with God." (Luke 1:37)









TABLE OF CONTENTS

page

A C K N O W L E D G M E N T S ................................................................................................. iv

LIST OF TABLES ................................ .......... .. .... .. .... .............. viii

LIST OF FIGURES ............................... ... ...... ... ................. .x

ABSTRACT .............. .................. .......... .............. xi

CHAPTERS

1 INTRODUCTION, PROBLEM STATEMENT, AND OBJECTIVES ..................... 1

In tro d u ctio n ...................................... .................................. ................. .
Problem Statem ent ........................................................ ...... .. ......... .. .. .2
R searchable Q uestion........... ...... ...................................................... ................ .3
H ypotheses ................................................ 3
O bje ctiv e s ................................................................................................ ............ 3
A Brief Overview of W hat Follows.................................................... ................4

2 LITER A TU R E REV IEW ............................................................. ....................... 6

D iets and D ieting in A m erica ........................................................................... 6
D iet C culture ................................................................ 6
D em graphics of D ieters ......................................................... .............. 7
L ow -C arbohydrate D iets ................................................. ...............
Dr. Alkinl 'New Diet Revolution................... .................... ............... 9
Dr. Agatston and The S.Nt,,l Beach Diet ............................................... 10
Application of Diet Literature ................. .......... ....................11
United States Orange Juice Industry................................... ......................11
The Golden Fruit ............... ......... ....... ...............11
Florida Departm ent of Citrus........ ... ....... .. ................... ..... ............... 13
Recent Orange Juice Consumption Trends ............................................13
Industry Snapshot ................... .... ...... .... .. .................. .. .. ........ .... 14
R regional Consum ption ....................................................... .... ........... 14
Consum er Profile .................... ............................. ........ ......... .... 15
Dieting and Orange Juice Consumption................................... ............... 15
Application of Industry Literature.................................................................... 16
H health Inform ation Sources ......................................................... ............... 16
Content Analysis........................................ 19
R elation to Scientific M ethod......................................... ......................... 20
Typical Process................................................. 20
A application of M ethod ................................ .............................. ................... 21
Concerns to be Addressed .................... ................................ 25
Application of Content Analysis Literature ................................ ............... 25


v









B ook Popularity .................. .................................... ... ... ...............26
Life Cycle Theory ........................................ .................. .................... 27
A applications and M modifications ........................................ ....... ............... 28
Application of Life Cycle Theory Literature................... ..................................30

3 DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS..................... ...... ............... 32

National and Regional M edia Data Collection.............................. ............... 32
Electronic Databases ................................ ... .. ........ ............ 32
S a m p lin g ....................................................................................3 3
D ata Collection ................................................... ..... .. ........ .... 33
C oding ........................................34
Tim e Periods Considered ............................................................................. 34
N national N ew spaper A analysis ........................................ ......... ............... 35
N national M magazine A nalysis.......................................... ........... ............... 37
Regional Newspaper Analysis................................ .... ................... 38
Book Popularity as Ranked on National Bestseller Lists...............................40
Publishers Weekly Bestseller Lists ....................................... ...............41
A additional D ata Collection ........................................................... ............... 42
Purchases (V ariable: PC G al) ..................................... ........................... ......... 42
P rice (V variable: R P ) ................................................ ........................ ........... 44
Gross Rating Point (Variable: GRP) ....................................... ............... 45
Field Staff (Variable: FieldStaff)....................... ........................ 45
Personal Disposable Income (Variable PCINC) ...........................................46

4 LIFE CYCLE HYPOTHESIS .............................................................................47

Product Life Cycle Theory ..................................................... ............................. 47
Source of Diet Information: Newspapers and Magazines ............... .............. ....49
Source of Diet Information: Diet Books ......................................... ...............54
C o n clu sio n s..................................................... ................ 6 0

5 DIET MEDIA COVERAGE AND PURCHASES HYPOTHESIS .........................61

Trends in Diet Media Coverage and Per Capita Purchases of Orange Juice..............61
U.S. Diet Media Coverage and Orange Juice Purchases.............................. 61
Southern Region Diet Media Coverage and Orange Juice Purchases.................63
The Base M odel, U.S. Orange Juice Demand ................................. ................ 64
The Adjusted Base Model, U.S. Orange Juice Demand...........................................67
Empirical Results, U.S. Orange Juice Demand............................................68
Autocorrelation ........................................... ......... ......... ............70
Elasticity at the Means for U.S. Orange Juice Demand ....................................70
U .S C orrelation A naly sis......................................................... .....................7 1
Southern Region Orange Juice Demand Model ................................... ..............73
Empirical Results, Southern Region Orange Juice Demand.............................75
A utocorrelation ............................................... ...... ......... .. ............ 78
Elasticity at the Means for Southern Region Orange Juice Demand ..................78









Southern Region Correlation Analysis..................................... ............... 79
C o n clu sio n s..................................................... ................ 8 0

6 SUMMARY, IMPLICATIONS, AND FUTURE RESEARCH ................................82

Sum m ary of D ata C collection ........................................................... .....................83
M aj or Findings.............. ..... .......... ..................... .......... ......... 83
H y p oth esis 1 .......................................................................83
H hypothesis 2 .......................................................................86
R research Im plication s........................................................................ ...................87
Suggestions for Future R research ........................................ .......................... 90
A alternative Inform ation Sources ........................................ ...... ............... 91
M edia Im pact and D em and ........................................... .......................... 92
Information Access and Application by Consumers ..................................92

APPENDIX

A DIET MEDIA COVERAGE DATA TABLES .................................. ...............93

B NATIONAL AND REGIONAL PURCHASE AND PRICE DATA TABLES ......113

C SAS PROGRAM USED TO ESTIMATE DEMAND .................. ................127

B IO G R A PH IC A L SK E T C H .............................................. ......... ..............................134









LIST OF TABLES


Table page

3.1: Newspaper Circulation, Greater than 1 Million Copies Sold..................................35

3.2: Summary of National Newspaper Data Collection.............. ......... ............... 37

3.3: Magazine Circulation, Highest Paid Circulation Within Category..........................37

3.4: Summary of National M magazine Data Collection ....................................................38

3.5: Southern Region Newspaper Circulation. ...................................... ............... 39

3.6: Summary of Regional Newspaper Data Collection, January 1997 through
D ecem ber 2004 .......................................................................40

5.1: Estimated Model Results of U.S. Per Capita Orange Juice Demand.....................68

5.2: Elasticity at the Mean for Price, Income, and Diet Media Coverage in the Model for
U .S. O range Juice D em and. ............................................ ............................. 71

5.3: Correlation Coefficient Matrix for National Orange Juice Demand Model,
significance of each correlation also shown ........................................................72

5.4: Estimated Model Results of Southern Region Per Capita Orange Juice Demand...76

5.5: Elasticity at the Mean for Price, Income, and Diet Media Coverage in the Model for
Southern Region Orange Juice Demand. ..................................... ............... 78

5.6: Correlation Coefficient Matrix for Southern Region Orange Juice Demand Model,
significance of each correlation also shown .................. ......................... ...... 79

A. 1: National Diet Media Coverage Collected from National Newspapers and
M magazines, October 1995 through January 2005....... .... ..................................... 93

A.2: Southern Region Health Information as Collected from Regional Newspapers,
January 1997 through January 2005.................................... ......................... 97

A.3: Weekly Bestseller Rankings for Akiin' New Diet Revolution by Dr. Robert Atkins,
New York Times and Publisher Weekly Bestseller Lists, April 1996 through
February 2004. (Weeks that the book was not ranked are indicated as NR) .........100

A.4: Weekly Bestseller Rankings for The S.nu,, Beach Diet by Dr. Arthur Agatston,
New York Times and Publisher Weekly Bestseller Lists, April 27, 2003 through
December 19, 2004. (Weeks that the book was not ranked are indicated as NR) .110

B.1: National Data Summary Table, October 1995 through January 2005 .................113









B.2: Southern Region Data Summary Table, January 1997 through January 2005. .....117

B.3: Weighted Average Price (National), based upon Prices and Quantity for various
P ro du ct F orm s .................................................................... 12 0

B.4: Weighted Average Price (Regional), based upon Prices and Quantity for various
P ro du ct F orm s .................................................................... 12 4









LIST OF FIGURES


Figure page

4.1: Total Media Articles (January 1995 through December 2004).............................50

4.2: National Newspaper Articles (October 1995 through December 2004)..................51

4.3: National Magazine Articles (October 1995 through December 2004) ..................51

4.4: Regional Newspaper Articles (January 1995 through December 2004)..................53

4.5: A ikin New Diet Revolution Weekly Rankings, Publishers Weekly Bestseller List
(April 28, 1996 through December 28, 2003)............................... .................56

4.6: A kiii' 'New Diet Revolution Weekly Rankings, New York Times (April 28, 1996
through D ecem ber 28, 2003)......................................................... ............... 57

4.7: The .N,,ih Beach Diet Weekly Rankings, Publishers Weekly (April 27, 2003
through D ecem ber 12, 2004)......................................................... ............... 58

4.8: The ,tlh Beach Diet weekly rankings, New York Times (April 27, 2003 through
D ecem ber 19, 2004) ............................................................... 59

5.1: U.S. Per Capita Orange Juice Purchases and Newspaper Articles on Low-
Carbohydrate Diets and Dieting, Annual (1996 through 2004) ..............................62

5.2: U.S. Per Capita Orange Juice Purchases and Magazine Articles on Low-
Carbohydrate Diets and Dieting, Annual (1996 through 2004) .............................63

5.3: Southern Region Orange Juice Purchases and Newspaper Articles, Annual (1997
through 2004). ........................................................................64

5.4: U.S. and Southern Region Per Capita Purchases of Orange Juice, Annual (1996
th rou g h 2 0 0 4 ) ...................................................... ................ 7 4














Abstract of Thesis Presented to the Graduate School
of the University of Florida in Partial Fulfillment of the
Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science

THE DIET CULTURE PHENOMENON AND ITS EFFECT ON THE UNITED
STATES ORANGE JUICE INDUSTRY

By

Leigh Ann Love

August 2005

Chair: James Stems
Major Department: Food and Resource Economics

Generally speaking, fruit and fruit juices have been accepted by the public and

nutritionists as excellent nutrient sources and important additions to a healthy diet.

Culturally, juice and orange juice in particular have a direct association with breakfast

meals. In the United States, these preferences have come under attack by low-

carbohydrate diet proponents and adherents.

In 1972 and 1992, Dr. Robert Atkins published a book detailing the benefits and

guidelines for a low-carbohydrate lifestyle. The bestseller status of this book since 1996

has prompted public and media attention towards low-carbohydrate lifestyles developed

by Dr. Atkins and other doctors, such as Dr. Arthur Agatston who published a book about

low-carbohydrate dieting entitled The .S,,ntl Beach Diet. These diets, in many cases,

specifically encourage diet adherents to decrease or completely eliminate consumption of

fresh fruit and/or fruit juices while dieting.









The major objective of this study was to determine if a relationship exists between

diet media coverage of low-carbohydrate diets and dieting and consumer demand for

orange juice. Using per capital purchase data as a proxy for consumer demand of orange

juice, two demand models, representing demand for orange juice in the United States and

demand for orange juice in the Southern region, are presented to explain decreases in

demand for orange juice. Conclusions about the effect of diet media coverage in

newspapers upon demand for orange juice are based on estimates of per capital purchases

as related to changes in factors such as price, diet coverage, existence of field staff, per

capital discretionary income, and previous period purchases. The results indicate that diet

media coverage does have a negative and significant effect upon purchases of orange

juice in both the United States and within the Southern region.

An additional objective of the study was to determine whether or not diets occur in

cycles and if said diet life cycles are defined by the amount of diet media coverage and

diet book popularity. Articles about low-carbohydrate diets and dieting were collected

from highly-circulated newspapers and magazines and weekly bestseller rankings of

popular diet books were collected as reported by Publisher 's Weekly.

Orange juice is a major agricultural commodity produced in Florida. In 2002,

citrus groves represented 8.37 percent of Florida total farm acreage and accounted for 21

percent of Florida farm sales; 95 percent of the Florida orange crop is processed into

orange juice. This study contributes an awareness of the impact that dieting trends,

particularly the low-carbohydrate diet, has upon consumption and purchases of food

products, specifically orange juice.














CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION, PROBLEM STATEMENT, AND OBJECTIVES

Diets have come and gone, but the passion for slimming has mounted steadily. Weight
watching and dieting have become a part of the customary fabric of American society,
from the nightclub to the nursery. Hillel Schwartz, Never Satisfied


Introduction

Generally speaking, fruit and fruit juices have been accepted by the public and

nutritionists as excellent nutrient sources and important additions to a healthy diet and are

included within the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) dietary guidelines

for healthy eating. Culturally, juice and orange juice in particular have a direct

association with breakfast meals. In the United States, these preferences have come

under attack by low-carbohydrate diet proponents and adherents.

In the 1970s, a book detailing the benefits and guidelines for a low-carbohydrate

lifestyle was written by Dr. Robert Atkins and it eventually sold 10 million copies

worldwide. After the diet faded from public view for nearly two decades, Atkins

republished the diet book in 1992 as Dr. AiAkin\ 'New Diet Revolution. This book

triggered another wave of high-protein, low-carbohydrate dieters, although the diet did

not reach widespread popularity until the late-1990s when Atkins' book became a

bestseller. This bestseller status has directed public and media attention towards low-

carbohydrate lifestyles developed by Dr. Atkins and other doctors who have created

similar diet plans that follow the low-carbohydrate philosophy. These diets, in many









cases, specifically encourage diet adherents to decrease or completely eliminate

consumption of fresh fruit and/or fruit juices while dieting.

On average, an eight ounces glass of orange juice has 27 grams of carbohydrates.

Many low-carbohydrate diets advocate limiting daily carbohydrate intake; the Atkins diet

recommends that dieters limit daily carbohydrate consumption to 20 grams per day

during the first phase of the diet and to 30 grams per day during the second phase of the

diet. Because recommended daily carbohydrate limits by low-carbohydrate diet

proponents is less than the amount of carbohydrates in an eight ounce glass of orange

juice, orange juice is a food product considered high in carbohydrates and consumption is

typically reduced by consumers following a low-carbohydrate diet.

Florida orange juice growers hold the low-carbohydrate dieting trend at least

partially responsible for recent decreases in United States per capital orange juice

consumption. According to Weinraub (2004), who reported research conducted by AC

Nielsen for the Florida Department of Citrus that involved random surveys of 2,600 U.S.

households in December 2003, 26 percent of the people surveyed intentionally reduced

their orange juice consumption over the past year. Of that 26 percent, 35 percent reported

that they did so due to low-carbohydrate dieting.

Problem Statement

Given decreases in U.S. orange juice consumption since the late 1990s and the

high volume of diet and health-related information made available to the consuming

public via various channels in the mainstream media, citrus growers would like

researchers to determine if an inverse causal relationship exists between increased media

attention towards low-carbohydrate diets and decreased orange juice purchases in the

United States. It may also be beneficial to agribusiness firms to determine whether or not









diets occur in cycles and if these "diet life cycles" can be defined by the intensity of

topical media coverage of diets and/or diet book popularity.

Researchable Question

This research focused on the following question: How has the cultural history of

dieting in the United States over the past 20 years affected consumer demand for orange

juice?

By answering this question and addressing related issues, a better understanding

of diets and dieting in the United States and the effect that such consumer behavior has

upon the purchasing of food products, specifically orange juice, can be attained. Such

information can be vital to the agricultural sector and specific agricultural industries, such

as the orange juice industry, when facing changes in demand for food products due to diet

trends and associated purchasing and consumption behaviors.

Hypotheses

In the process of addressing the researchable question, two hypotheses are tested.

These hypotheses involve testing for relationships between diets and purchasing habits as

well as the relationship between diets and frequency of diet media coverage as found in

national and regional newspapers, magazines, and diet books.

1. Dieting trends occur in cycles, such that they follow a cyclical pattern similar to the
product life-cycle theory.

2. Demand for orange juice is correlated with diet media coverage in the media.

Objectives

The first hypothesis is addressed by graphically analyzing the popularity of low-

carbohydrate diets and dieting. The frequency of newspaper and magazine articles

written about low-carbohydrate diets serve as a proxy for diet popularity in this study, as









do weekly bestseller rankings of popular diet books. All data sets are graphed to discern

whether or not a diet life cycle similar to the product life cycle curve is defined by the

popularity of a diet as measured by diet media coverage and diet book popularity.

To address the second hypothesis, U.S. and Southern region orange juice purchases

from October 1995 through January 2005 data are used to estimate consumer demand.

Content analysis is then used to generate quantified measures of low-carbohydrate diet

media coverage. Collected media coverage is then overlaid to coincide with purchase

data periods. The model for consumer demand is then defined as a function of a set of

independent variables, including a diet media coverage variable representing the

frequency of media articles regarding low-carbohydrate diets and dieting. Other

explanatory variables in the demand analysis included real price, existence of field staff

working for the Florida citrus industry, gross rating points as a measure of advertising

intensity for citrus promotions, and per capital discretionary income.

A Brief Overview of What Follows

In Chapter 2, relevant literature is discussed regarding the cultural history of dieting

in America and elsewhere throughout history, consumer behavior research pertaining to

the use of health information and the effect of health motivation upon decisions and

behaviors, the use of content analysis as a tool for measuring the degree to which media

sources address issues in society, and finally the product life cycle theory, which is

applied in Chapter 4 to examine potential diet trends.

The method used to collect diet media coverage data from national and regional

newspapers and magazines, as well as weekly bestseller rankings for popular low-

carbohydrate diet books is discussed in Chapter 3. In addition, a discussion is presented









concerning the use of scanner purchase data as a proxy for orange juice consumption.

The variables considered for the base model are also described.

The first hypothesis is addressed in Chapter 4 by discussing and applying the

product life cycle theory through graphical analysis of the frequency of news and

magazine articles and popularity of diet books as defined by national bestseller lists, over

time. The second hypothesis is addressed in Chapter 5, in which the econometric model

of consumer demand for orange juice is discussed. Summary of the research implications

and suggestions for future research are discussed in Chapter 6.














CHAPTER 2
LITERATURE REVIEW

This literature review is divided into six major topic areas, within which a number

of these sections are further divided into subsections. The topic areas are: Diets and

Dieting in America, United States Orange Juice Industry, Health Information Sources,

Content Analysis, Book Popularity, and Life Cycle Theory.

Diets and Dieting in America

"Reducing has become a national pastime ... a craze, a national fanaticism, a

frenzy..." wrote a journalist in 1925, who concluded that, "People now converse in

pounds, ounces, and calories." To this day, this national pastime of reduction and dieting

encompasses almost as much national and collective passion as American baseball and

mom's apple pie. Interest in dieting and weight reduction continue to endure and as of

late, consumers have added to their vernacular such diet terms as "low carbohydrate,"

"POINTS," "good fat," "bad fat," "good carbs," and "bad carbs" (Schwartz 1986, 183).

Diet Culture

The term, "diet" typically refers to those things customarily eaten. That term,

however, according to Gruber (2002) is now used to describe an attempt to lose weight.

Most recently, many of those dieting have reported to be following a low-carbohydrate

lifestyle. The types of diets that people have followed throughout history are continually

changing, although in many cases diets are reinvented; such is the case with the high-fat,

low carbohydrate diets which were first introduced in Germany in the 1880s:









Each time the diet has reappeared, it has been impervious to its past. The
rejuvenation of diets is as much a part of the culture of slimming as the
rejuvenation of the dieter... the dieter is therefore little disturbed by the apparent
contradictions between one diet and the next. It is not as if a dieter follows a
logical program or steps progressively from a worse diet to a better diet. (Schwartz
1986, 6-8)

Diets do seem to occur in a cyclical pattern, insomuch that the popular diet of the

times is generally replaced as the people find that it is no longer successful. Schwartz

calls this "the typical chronicle of slimming" which encompasses, "a discrete set of

flashing points, enlightenment to dark age to enlightenment, discontinuous and

disappointing...the more obvious the vicious circle, the more extreme the next diet."

Schwartz also notes that these diets seem to appear, "out of nowhere, in no time at all,

like barbarians or wandering saints, and they seem to disappear as easily and as swiftly as

they come" (Schwartz 1986, 6).

Schwartz continues his criticism of diets and dieting while recognizing that dieting

has not only retained its popularity throughout history, but that dieting has also been

incorporated into many facets of American culture:

Diets have come and gone, but the passion for slimming has mounted steadily.
Weight watching and dieting have become a part of the customary fabric of
American society, from the nightclub to the nursery. Slimming...is the modern
expression of an industrial society confused by its own desires and therefore never
satisfied. On the one hand we seem to want more of everything; on the other hand
we are suspicious of surplus. (Schwartz 1986, 5)

Demographics of Dieters

According to Simmons Market Research (2004), 40.3 million Americans, 19.5% of

the population, are currently controlling their diet. More women than men are controlling

their diets, 26% and 12% of the population, respectively. This trend holds across various

diet-related activities and attitudes. After gender, the major demographic category for

indicating who is controlling their diet is by age group, with those adults ages 45-54 at an









index of 117, or 17% above the adult norm. Additionally, those living in the West are

16% above the norm, when compared with populations in other U.S. geographic regions.

According to the same study, researchers found that for those consumers who are

willing to try any new diet, Blacks are more than twice as likely as the adult norm to try a

new diet, and those consumers living in households of five or more persons are 52%

more likely. Women are also more likely than the adult norm to try new diets, as are

those consumers who reside in the South. Adults either under the age of 35 or older than

55 are significantly more likely to try new diets as well.

Researchers also discovered that indicators for likelihood to control diet include

individual income, educational attainment, and age for both men and women. Those

women earning $75,000-$99,999 are 29% more likely than other women and men

earning $100,000-$149,000 are 52% more likely than other men, to control their diet.

Educational attainment is the second highest indicator for both women and men, as those

who attended graduate school are 26% and 39% higher than the respective gender

average. A final indicator seems to be age; both men and women between the ages of 45-

54 are higher than their average counterparts to diet: 22% above the U.S. norm for

females, and 18% above for males (Simmons Market Research, 2004).

Low-Carbohydrate Diets

As with many diets, the recent low-carbohydrate dieting trend is a re-invention of

the low-carbohydrate diets of the 1970s. The interest in low-carbohydrate diets during

the 1970s was prompted by Dr. Robert Atkins, who at the time published, "The Diet

Revolution," which described a weight-loss plan which incorporated a high-protein, high-

fat, and low-carbohydrate diet. The low-carbohydrate diet, however, began much earlier

than the 1970s and by historical accounts is attributed to an aural surgeon, Dr. William









Harvey, who prescribed a diet in the 1860s "free from farinaceous [starchy] and

saccharine [sugary] foods" for a London undertaker, Mr. William Banting.

Mr. Banting, who suffered from deafness due to fatty matter in the throat pressing

upon his Eustachian tubes, was a patient of Dr. Harvey. Dr. Harvey based his

recommendation to Mr. Banting upon a lecture by French physiologist Claude Bernard

on excess sugar in the liver of diabetics. Banting's diet consisted of lean meat, dry toast,

soft-boiled eggs and green vegetables, resulting in a total loss of 52 pounds by 1864 and

clear hearing. Overjoyed by his weight-loss success, Banting wrote and printed his

"Letter on Corpulence." By his death in 1878, more than 58,000 copies of the diet

pamphlet had been sold, and "Banting" became synonymous with "reducing" (Schwartz

1986, 100-101).

According to other sources, Banting's booklet had sold as many as 68,000 copies

within six years of the first printing, after having been translated into German and French.

Banting went on to publish three more revisions to his booklet and received letters from

over 2,000 individuals claiming success while adhering to his diet principles (Gruber,

2002). By the 1880s, American physicians discovered that Banting's diet had become

the most common method of dieting to lose weight as the laity began to adopt it by word

of mouth, and the principles entered into the lore of cooking schools (Schwartz 1986,

101).

Dr. Atkins' New Diet Revolution

Low-carbohydrate diets have become the most recent dieting trend in the United

States, becoming popular after Dr. Atkins republished his 1970s dieting bestseller as,

"Dr. Aikini 'New Diet Revolution." Although the book was released in 1992, it did not

appear on The New York Times Paperback "Bestsellers List for Advice, How-to and









Miscellaneous" until April 1996. It was then that the low-carbohydrate diet was again

reborn into popular culture and began its ascent to becoming the popular dieting trend of

the late 1990s and into the 21st century.

Since the book bestseller lists have become an acceptable gauge of book popularity,

weekly rankings from The New York Times and Publisher's Weekly are investigated in

Chapter 4 as potential measures for diet popularity. The diet's popularity was also

revealed through marketing agreements between the parent company of the Atkins' diet,

Atkins Nutritionals Inc., and restaurants such as TGI Fridays and Subway to carry items

on menus approved for use while on the Atkins' low-carbohydrate diet (Horovitz, 2004).

Dr. Agatston and The South Beach Diet

A variation of Dr. Atkins' low-carbohydrate diet, The .n,,iuh Beach Diet book by

Dr. Arthur Agatston, was released in April 2003 and immediately appeared on The New

York Times Hardcover Advise Best-Sellers List. Although the diet is generally

considered to have an emphasis on decreasing carbohydrate consumption, a posting on

The .inuh Beach Diet website states that the diet is not focused on a low-carbohydrate or

low-fat lifestyle, but rather focused on, "...learning the basics of good nutrition, which

involves choosing good carbs and good fats-and knowing which ones to avoid."

As of December 2004, Aikin\ New Diet Revolution had only been printed in

paperback and The .'i,,lh Beach Diet book had only been printed in hardcover. Since

these books with different bindings are ranked on separate bestseller lists, it is difficult to

determine which diet book, Atkins or South Beach, was most popular during a given

week. It is important to note that several celebrities have become "diet success stories,"

such as Bette Midler, Nicole Kidman and former President Bill Clinton. Like the Atkins

diet company, South Beach also agreed to marketing deals with major food companies,









such as Kraft Foods, to carry The S.i,,l Beach Diet seal on the packages of various

products approved under the diet plan (Horovitz, 2004).

Application of Diet Literature

The information gathered pertaining to the diet history and culture in the United

States helps to set the stage for the study, by identifying the impact that dieting has upon

culture. In addition, this section of the literature review also introduces the types of

health information generally associated with a popular dieting trend. A specific example

is the use of books or pamphlets to circulate diet information, as was done by Mr.

Banting in the late 1880s and more recently by Dr. Atkins and Dr. Agatston. Finally, this

section helps to lay the groundwork for understanding how diets may occur in cycles,

which directly relates the first hypothesis of the study.

United States Orange Juice Industry

Considered to be a "Cinderella story" of the food industry, the development of

frozen concentrated orange juice helped to catapult the demand for orange juice in the

United States, eventually making it one of the most popular beverages in American

history.

The Golden Fruit

The first recorded mention of citron, a large lemon-like fruit and the forerunner of

the orange, was in Chinese writings attributed to Confucius, a Chinese philosopher who

died in 479 BC. Although this fruit was probably originally bitter, inedible and used

primarily as an ornament and for seasoning, the fruit eventually reached Europe and was

probably first introduced into the Mediterranean area by Arab traders (Florida Citrus,

1974).









It is believed that although Columbus is rumored to have taken citrus seed along on

his second voyage to the New World in 1493, it was Ponce de Leon who probably

brought citrus to Florida in 1513 while he was searching for the Fountain of Youth. The

earliest groves were developed near St. Augustine and Tampa and commercial production

of citrus was confined to these coastal areas for the first 300 years because the only

means of transporting fruit was by water (Florida Citrus, 1974).

According to the Glossary of Common Citrus Terms, "the orange has taken on

many different forms on its way to the consumer." Before 1915, less than 1% of all

oranges were processed. In the late 1930s and particularly during World War II, the

"juice for breakfast fad" grew steadily because orange groves (particularly in Florida)

began to expand and consumers had more disposable income than ever before. The U.S.

government prescribed fresh fruit for the armed services and following World War II, an

overproduction of oranges emerged. In response to this overproduction, three research

scientists, MacDowell, Moore, and Adkins, developed a process for frozen orange

concentrate that involved vacuum evaporation. This "taste like fresh product" helped

recover the slack in demand for single-strength juice and fresh consumption from 1950 to

1970 (Florida's Golden Fruit, 1977).

The status of orange juice as a "Cinderella story" of the food business is based on

its widely successful introduction into the market. Frozen concentrated orange juice

production increased from 225,000 gallons during the 1945-46 season to over 186 million

gallons during the 1975-76 season. "The nation embraced the product like nothing since

Henry Ford's model T, and Florida citrus vaulted into the world's number one

agricultural industry (Florida's Golden Fruit, 1977, 67)."









Florida Department of Citrus

The Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC) is an executive agency of the Florida

state government charged with the marketing, research and regulation of the Florida

citrus industry; the agency's mission is to help grow the demand for Florida citrus

products, providing a direct benefit to the state's citrus growers.

According to the FDOC website, FDOC programs are funded by a tax paid by

citrus growers on each box of citrus that moves through commercial channels, which is

spent on advertising and promotional activities for Florida citrus in the United States,

Canada, Europe and Asia. In addition, the FDOC also has regulatory responsibilities,

including research, production, fertilizing, maturity standards, harvesting, licensing,

transportation, labeling, packing and processing.

FDOC funding also provided for field staff posted in major U.S. markets that

worked with retailers and food service providers to promote Florida Citrus and helped

retailers in the areas of merchandising, in-store promotions, as well as with category

management such as allocating shelf space. They also helped coordinate Florida

Department of Citrus generic advertising with retailer promotions. Since March 2001,

however, the field staff has been largely eliminated.

Recent Orange Juice Consumption Trends

Frozen concentrated orange juice became very popular with American consumers,

which drove much of the growth of orange juice consumption in the United States. Like

most food products, however, the form that orange juice has taken over the years is

attributed, in part, to changing consumer tastes and preferences. During the 1985-86

season, consumers began to purchase more chilled than frozen orange juice product, a

change attributed to consumers' desire for convenience. The next big shift in









consumption trends of orange juice occurred during the 2001-02 season when consumers

began to purchase more not-from-concentrate (NFC) product than product that was either

frozen concentrate or reconstituted. This shift is attributed to consumer perceptions of

quality associated with NFC orange juice products and a continuing preference for

convenience.

Industry Snapshot

As consumers' buying behavior has shifted towards NFC orange juice products,

brand labels have grown in popularity. During the 2002-03 season, the top three brands

in the market (Tropicana, Minute Maid, and Florida Natural) were responsible for 62.6%

of total orange juice purchases and 90.2% of NFC purchases. Brand names and store

brands also have held the largest market shares for reconstituted orange juice products.

In addition to the changes in product form, packaging of orange juice has also changed,

moving away from canned and glass containers towards carton and plastic containers

(FDOC).

Regional Consumption

The decline for orange juice began in the late 1990s and has continued steadily,

although at differing rates and varying trends among geographic regions of the U.S. The

southeastern region is defined by ACNielsen as including states south of Oklahoma,

Arkansas, Kentucky, West Virginia, and Maryland. This region has the highest total

regional consumption of orange juice, although it is the northeastern region that has the

highest per capital consumption.

Not-from-Concentrate products have the highest market share in the northeast

region, while reconstituted and NFC products have comparably high market shares in the

southern region. Consumers in the western and north central regions tend to prefer









frozen and reconstituted product, which is attributed to the cost incurred through the

transportation of water from Florida (as would be included in Not-from-Concentrate

orange juice products).

Consumer Profile

According to data collected by AC Nielson for the 2002-2003 growing season,

consumers of orange juice tend to be affluent and Hispanic or African American.

Additionally, consumption of orange juice increases with education, household income,

and household size (FDOC).

Dieting and Orange Juice Consumption

According to Weinraub (2004), slightly fewer than 80 percent of American

households were buying orange juice in June 2004, as compared to approximately 81

percent of households in 2002. This decrease in consumption was particularly noticeable

in the "heavy user" category, which is defined as households that consume 12.5 gallons or

more annually. According to the FDOC, this shift in consumer behaviors has been

attributed to three factors: 1) dieting; 2) consumer growing interest in nutrition and eating

well; and 3) negative messages about orange juice (FDOC).

According to AC Nielsen (2003), "As many as 25 million people have tried the

Atkins diet alone...which doesn't even include other low-carb programs. These new

trends are changing the way consumers perceive nutrition and health, and marketers are

beginning to adapt to these new regimens (20)." Crotty (2003) stated that among dieters,

40% said that they plan to consume less juice, mainly to avoid sugar and that only 8%

indicated that they planned to consume more orange juice.









Application of Industry Literature

Because of the potential significance of diet cultural trends on the demand for

orange juice, understanding the continual development of orange juice as a product is

significant. This body of literature also helps to frame the problem statement and

objectives, as stated in Chapter 1. The information gathered on recent consumption

trends, especially the observation that the shift towards increased purchases of the more

expensive NFC orange juice product highlights a possible problem with the data if

average price rather than a weighted price (based on relative market share of NFC,

reconstituted, frozen concentrate, and shelf stable) were to be included in the regression

analysis.

Health Information Sources

According to Moorman and Matulich (1993), there are two behaviors that should

be taken into account when considering the role of health information and its potential

influence on individual choices: health information acquisition behaviors and health

maintenance behaviors. Health information acquisition behavior is the degree to which a

consumer acquires health information from various sources, including media and labels,

friends and family, and health professionals. Health maintenance behaviors refer to the

degree to which a consumer performs health-enhancing behaviors, including utilizing

health professionals for check-ups, improving dietary intake, minimizing stress,

moderating alcohol consumption, and eliminating tobacco use.

MacInnis, et al (1991) define health motivation as the, "consumers' goal-directed

arousal to engage in preventative health behaviors (34)." This incorporates the

consumer's willingness to perform and interest in performing health behaviors, such as

dieting and weight reduction. According to Celsi and Olson (1988), health motivation









activates consumers and drives them to pursue health behaviors. These behaviors are

presumably important goals or values and hence motivated consumers devote more

attention to and exert greater cognitive effort towards the processing of relevant

information. Moorman and Matulich (1993) also address health motivation, stating that it

stimulates consumers to put their knowledge, skills, or resources into practice. Consumer

research literature supports that health knowledge and education levels reflect an

expertise that assists in health information processing and selecting health behaviors.

Alba and Hutchinson (1987) found that highly knowledgeable consumers acquire and

retain more information and that knowledge eases the encoding of information.

Additionally, Moorman and Matulich (1993) found that income reflects consumers'

financial ability to implement health behaviors.

Moorman and Matulich (1993) conducted a survey of consumers, comparing

lower- and higher-income consumers and young and elderly consumers. Their research

revealed that health motivation increases the amount of health information acquired from

media sources, health professional contact, diet restriction, and diet addition, but not

information acquired from casual sources (such as friends and family). Additionally,

higher use of media sources for health information was found for highly motivated but

more able consumers, who were characterized by high health knowledge and high

income. Moorman and Matulich also indicated that the acquisition of media information

did interact with the restriction of negative dieting elements.

In terms of health behaviors, Moorman and Matulich (1993) concluded that

consumers were more influenced by information from media sources rather than

information from casual sources. This was attributed to the fact that health information









typically involves an idea, product, or practice that is essentially new for consumers;

therefore, health information may be thought of as an innovation. Rodgers (1983)

suggests that the information provider and receiver should be different enough (in terms

of expertise, values, or beliefs) from one another that the receiver perceives the provider

as having credibility and in turn values the information. Perhaps this explains why casual

sources, which may be seen as too similar to themselves by consumers, are not valued as

highly as media sources.

According to the American Dietetic Association's (2002) consumer research study,

media is a major contributor to nutrition and health knowledge. Answering an open-

ended question about their chief sources of nutrition information, in which they could

give more than one answer, 72 percent of consumers named television as a chief source

of nutrition information. Popular magazines and newspapers were also ranked as chief

sources of nutrition information by 58 percent and 33 percent of respondents,

respectively. Books, including references and general-interest publications, were

identified by 15% of respondents as chief sources of nutrition information.

Application of Health Information Literature

Since this research study is primarily concerned with the effect that health

information, specifically information about low-carbohydrate diets, the Atkins diet, and

The So.,,li Beach Diet, has had upon purchases of orange juice, it was important to

identify how consumers process health information. In addition, the literature regarding

health motivation and the effect that increased health motivation has upon the amount of

health information acquired also provides further depth to the study. Similarly, the

premise that people who are concerned about their health and/or weight will have higher

health motivation and therefore acquire more health information as compared to









counterparts who are not as concerned about their health and/or weight is insightful. This

body of literature also suggests that purchase decisions are not necessarily directly

affected by health information if health motivation for each individual is not present.

Health information is a general term which includes sources of information ranging

from doctors and dieticians to newspapers and magazines. For this study, the focus will

be on health information collected from newspapers and magazines, which will be

identified as "diet media coverage."

Content Analysis

Kolbe and Burnett (1991) define content analysis as, "an observational research

method that is used to systematically evaluate the symbolic content of all forms of

recorded information," and suggest that content analysis provides an empirical starting

point for generating new research evidence about the nature and effect of specific

communication (243). This method, however, is susceptible to the effects of researcher

biases, which can affect decisions made in the collection, analysis and interpretation of

data. According to Kassarjian (1977), the content analysis method is a formal

methodology used in political science, journalism, social psychology, and

communications research. In those fields, the content analysis method is described as a

research technique for the, "objective, systematic, and quantitative description of the

manifest of content communication; the scientific analysis of communication messages

that requires rigorous and systematic analysis; a systematic technique for analyzing

message content and message handling (8)."

According to Neuendorf (2002), content analysis is as easy-or as difficult-as the

researcher determines it to be and is not necessarily easier than conducting a survey,

experiment, or other type of study. The term content analysis does not apply to every









analysis of message content. A content analysis summarizes, rather than reports, all

details concerning a message set and much of content analysis literature concentrates on

manifest content, or the "elements that are physically present and countable (15)."

Content analysis may be conducted on written text, transcribed speech, verbal

interactions, visual images, characterizations, nonverbal behaviors, sound events, or any

other message type. Neuendorf also notes that the term text analysis refers to the specific

type of content analysis that focuses on written or transcribed words.

Relation to Scientific Method

According to Neuendorf (2002), content analysis as a research method is consistent

with the goals and standards of survey research. In content analysis, an attempt is made

to measure all variables as they naturally or normally occur. Additionally, content

analysis is a design that meets the requirement of objectivity and inter-subjectivity

through its apriori design since all decisions on variables, their measurement and coding

are made prior to observation. For content analysis, reliability is an extremely important

factor, especially when human coders are used. Without acceptable levels of reliability,

content analysis measures are meaningless.

Typical Process

Neuendorf describes the typical process of content analysis research as including

nine steps:

1. Theory and rationale, what content will be examined and why;

2. Conceptualization, what variables will be used in the study and how are they
defined conceptually;

3. Operationalizations, measures should match conceptualization to prove internal
validity and the unit of data collection;









4. Coding schemes, (whether human or computer coding is used) a codebook and
coding form should be created which fully explain what variables will be
measured;

5. Sampling, census of the content possible or how a subset of the content will be
randomly sampled;

6. Training and pilot reliability, agree on the coding and note the reliability on each
variable;

7. Coding, use at least two coders to establish intercoder reliability. Coding should be
done independently with 10% overlap for reliability test;

8. Final reliability, calculate a reliability figure for each variable; and,

9. Tabulation and reporting, figures and statistics may be reported using univariate or
multivariate techniques.

Neuendorf (2002) also notes that over-time trends are also a common reporting

method. In the long run, relationships between content analysis variables and other

measures may establish criterion and construct validity.

For a content analysis to be generalizable to some population of messages, the

sample for the analysis should be randomly selected. Randomness may be defined as

follows: Every element (unit) in the population must have an equal chance of being

selected. In the case of a small population, there may be no need to draw a smaller,

representative sample of the population. Rather, all units in the population may be

included in the study (i.e., a census).

Application of Method

Predictive content analysis has as its primary goal the prediction of some outcome

or effect of the messages under examination. By measuring key characteristics of

messages, the researcher aims to predict receiver or audience responses to the messages.

A type of predictive content analysis that has been gaining popularity is the prediction of

public opinion from news coverage of issues. For example, Hertog and Fan (1995) found









that print news coverage of three potential HIV transmission routes (toilets, sneezing, and

insects) preceded and was significantly related to public beliefs about those routes as

expressed in polls.

Shoemaker and Reese (1996) developed a model of research domains for

typologizing mass media studies. Their proposed domains are as follows: a) Source and

system factors affecting media content; b) Media content characteristics as related to

audience's use of and evaluation of content; c) Media content characteristics as predictive

of media effects on the audience; D) Characteristics of the audience and its environment

as related to the audience use and evaluation of media content; and E) Audiences' uses of

and evaluation of media content as related to media's effects on the audience.

Breen (1997) searched the Lexis Nexis database for all newspaper articles in major

papers during certain periods occurring between 1991 and 1994 that included the key

search terms, Catholicc" and "priest" or "clergy" within two words of each other. The

search yielded a set of articles that served as the population from which he then drew a

sample. According to Riechert (1995), such a key-word search procedure does not

retrieve every article on the topic, but it yields a reasonable sample of sufficient size for

meaningful analysis. He also concluded that duplicate articles yielded by the search

should be eliminated from the population to be sampled, as are articles unrelated to the

topic of concern.

The International Food Information Council Foundation has, since 1995, conducted

Food For Thought, a quantitative and qualitative analysis of the food news published by

more than three dozen major national, regional, and targeted local news outlets, including

network television, major magazines and newspapers, and health and nutrition Internet









sites; each report covers a two-year interval. The report issued for 2001-2003 tracked

news reports in 40 media outlets over a three-month period in 2003 and indicated that

obesity and weight management were the top news topics, capturing 15 percent of all

news discussions.

Content analysis is being used with increased frequency by a growing array of

researchers. According to Neuendorf (2002), a six-fold increase occurred in the number

of content analyses published in the Journalism and Mass Communication Quarterly over

a 24 year period, 6.3% of all articles in 1971 to 34.8% in 1995.

Content Analysis in Agricultural Economics

Within the field of Agricultural Economics, several studies have been conducted

investigating the relationship between media coverage and demand for various food

products. Most of these studies concentrate on the demand impacts of how various food

safety risks are portrayed in the media, both in the United States and abroad. In these

studies, media coverage is considered on two levels, sustained media coverage and

heightened media coverage. According to Kalaitzandonakes, et al (2005), sustained and

heightened media coverage is dependent upon the length of time an issue exists in the

media.

Kalaitzandonakes, et al (2005) investigated the relationship between GM

ingredient labels, sustained GM-related food risk as portrayed in the media, and demand

for frozen and canned food items in the Netherlands. They determined that Dutch

consumers did not significantly change their purchasing behavior of biotech foods in

response to media coverage. This is the only study found thus far that indicates demand

was not significantly changed due to media coverage. Additionally, the media attention

directed towards the U.S. Starlink corn case was considered by Kalaitzandonakes, et al









with regards to heightened media coverage of the issue. Results of the research indicated

that acute media coverage did influence consumer purchasing behavior and that those

changes in consumer demand affected primarily those branded products that were directly

identified by the media. The research, however, indicated that the overall change in

consumer demand was temporary and rather small.

Van Ravenswaay and Hoehn (1991) investigated the relationship between

demand for apples following the Alar scar and sustained media coverage of the food

safety issue relating to apple consumption in light of the food scare. Their research

indicated a relationship between media coverage and subsequent decrease in demand for

apples. Overall, demand for apples decreased by 30% during the 6-year study.

Verbeke and Ward (2001) investigated the relationship between meat

consumption and sustained media coverage of hormones and BSE (Bovine Spongiform

Encephalopathy, otherwise known as Mad Cow Disease) from 1995-1998 in Belgium and

the United Kingdom. Their research indicated a reduction in consumer expenditures on

beef over 4 years by 2% in Belgium. In addition, demand for beef in the United

Kingdom decreased by 40% after the link between BSE and vCJD (Variant Creutzfeldt-

Jakob Disease) was reported.

Piggott and Marsh (2004) investigated the impact of heightened media coverage

oflisteria, salmonella, E coli, and BSE on U.S. demand for beef, chicken, and pork.

Their research revealed that consumers reacted to contemporaneous media coverage of

such risks only. Although this result held over a twenty-year time period, the research

indicates that the overall economic effects from such consumer response were relatively

small.









Swartz and Strand (1981) considered the impact of kepone contamination (a

potential carcinogen) on demand for oysters in certain U.S. markets. Their research

found that the media had a moderate but temporary negative impact on demand for

oysters. After consumer reaction to media coverage of kepone contamination wore off,

the research indicates that U.S. consumption of oysters returned to previous levels.

In other contexts, content analysis has been used to identify future implications for

research in the Agriculture Economics discipline by Corbett (1997), who examined

research articles published in the Journal of Food Distribution Research from 1984

through 1998. In a similar fashion, Gempesaw and Albay (1996) conducted a content

analysis of the Agricultural and Resource Economics Review to determine whether the

journal had maintained a strong regional focus and whether or not there had been a

narrow concentration of published articles by subject area and methodology.

Concerns to be Addressed

According to Kalaitzandonakes, et al (2005), media coverage is dynamic and it

can be difficult for researchers to measure or observe the amount of information accessed

and understood by consumers. Additionally, the shaping and revising of consumer

perceptions in response to new information subject to lengthy lags and the translation of

perceptions into actions is poorly understood.

Application of Content Analysis Literature

The body of literature collected regarding Content Analysis is helpful in identifying

the methods used to sample, collect, code, and analyze health information gathered from

national and regional newspapers and magazines. The range of use of Content Analysis

to determine the effect that media has had upon the demand for particular food products

also provides validity and acceptance of the method within the field of Agricultural









Economics. Applications of the method outside Agricultural Economics were also

helpful when specifics of the method for this study were considered and applied. This

includes the use of media information to gauge public beliefs and attitudes, various

sampling techniques, and the use of electronic databases such as LexisNexis to collect

media articles for analysis.

Book Popularity

Book popularity is generally measured by sales, and sales data are published on a

weekly basis by several organizations. The most well-known and recognized is The New

York Times Bestseller List, which is published weekly. A second source of bestseller lists

used in this research is Publisher's Weekly, a 131-year-old international weekly news

magazine of the book industry. The Publishers' Weekly magazine reaches every major

publisher worldwide, and according to the company website, the magazine is the leading

publication serving all segments involved in the creation, production, marketing and sale

of the written word in book, audio, video and electronic formats.

According to Sornette et al (2004), 138 books from Amazon's Top 50 rankings

were analyzed and they concluded that top sellers tend to reach their sales peak in one of

two ways. These researchers indicate that many books achieve bestseller status due to

"exogenous shocks" such as a major media announcement, a celebrity endorsement, or a

dignitary's death. In these cases, the instant rise in sales is followed by a fairly quick

decline. However, their research also shows that other books inch their way to the top of

bestseller lists over the course of many months, helped by cascades of tiny endogenouss

shocks" such as a friend's recommendation. An example is the book, "Divine Secrets of

the Ya-Ya Sisterhood," which made the bestseller list two years after publication without

ever benefiting from a major ad campaign. Interest in the book was stimulated by book-









discussion clubs that then inspired women to form their own "Ya-Ya Sisterhood" groups.

They also concluded that such books descend the rankings more slowly than those

propelled by exogenous shocks.

Application of Book Popularity Literature

Given the cultural history of diets discussed earlier in the literature review and the

use of pamphlets and books to disseminate information about a particular diet to the

general public, the book popularity literature helps to define a method for representing

the popularity of a book by using weekly bestseller rankings. Additionally, the literature

on the avenues by which books achieve bestseller status are helpful in identifying the

differences in popularity between the Atkins' and South Beach diet books. This body of

literature also helps to lay initial groundwork towards the first hypothesis, which

involved investigating the existence of a "diet life cycle".

Life Cycle Theory

According to Lilien and Kotler (1983), the product life cycle model (PLCM) was

developed originally to study the sales and profit patterns over time of branded products.

According to the Blackwell Encyclopedic Dictionary of Marketing, the product life cycle

is based on the belief that most products go through a similar set of stages over their

lives, much like living organisms and that as a product moves through the life cycle,

marketing strategies may be adapted, although some products display a fad cycle that has

no, or a short maturity phase. Johnson (2002) asserts that products, like people and other

living things, have life cycles. He also notes that the PLCM is further identified as a

managerial planning and control tool that provides a conceptual framework for

developing marketing objectives and strategies for different stages of a product's life.

Dhalla and Yaspeth (1976) state that another PLC is that of the growth-decline plateau,









where the growth phase is followed by a partial decline to a stable volume that is

considerably lower than peak sales.

As identified by Johnson, the PLCM can be divided into four stages: introduction,

growth, maturity, and decline. He asserts that these product life cycle stages vary in

length since some new products take a long time to gain market acceptance and move

into the growth stage, such as appliances and other durable goods, which tend to have

long product life cycles. This is in contrast to other products such as toys, novelties, and

fashions, which have relatively short life cycles. In addition, Johnson states that high-

tech products are also likely to have short life cycles due to the rapid advancement of

technology causing many high-tech products to become obsolete quickly.

Applications and Modifications

The PLCM offers a plausible explanation of the relationship between an economic

unit and its market over time. Blank (2002) argues that although the model was

developed originally to look at specific brand-name products or product lines, it can be

extended to firms and to industries because those larger economic units also follow a

growth and decline process that is based in the results of sequential decisions.

Blank uses the product life cycle model to develop a framework to answer

questions regarding what lessons have been learned from the disappearances of certain

industries. He asserts that entire industries can and do disappear and that many of the

industries that have virtually disappeared from the American economy produce a

commodity, implying that there is something about the structure of industries which

makes it possible for those industries to disappear. He observes that the changes over a

life span of an industry seem to follow a similar pattern, and this pattern includes a series

of time periods over which the total sales and profits of the economic unit first increase,









peak, and then decline and in total, indicates an analytical framework which evaluates

economic performance over time, such as the "product life cycle" model (PLCM), which

he then modifies for use in analyzing the American agriculture production industry.

Heller (1999) discusses how companies have life cycles and how those life cycles

are linked with products sold by a particular company. He suggests that what drives the

life cycle of a company with regards to the popularity of brands and products is

originality, which in turn provides opportunities for company growth. Heller suggests

that downturns in the life cycle of companies may be due to company management, who

are unable to adapt the company, and or products remain unchanged while markets move

forward.

Modis (1994) discusses life cycles in terms of "survival of the fittest," and claims

that the filling or the emptying of a niche in a competitive environment follows an S-

shaped pattern of natural growth. In such a pattern of growth, the rate of growth is

greatest in the middle of the life cycle and then diminishes as growth reaches saturation

level.

In his application of the life cycle theory, Modis fit S-curves to populations of

computers, specifically a computer model that was popular in the mid-1980s. When the

analysis was first completed in 1985, he concluded that the product was phasing out,

something that marketers denied vehemently at the time. Modis notes that these

marketers spoke of plans to advertise and repackage the product in order to boost sales,

although when sales during the following three years were in line with his projections, he

concluded that promotional activities, price changes, and competition in general were

conditions present throughout a product's life cycle and would not change the course of a









natural phasing-out process because these new programs were not significantly different

from those of the past. With respect to computers, Modis notes that the use of the life

cycle as a tool became complicated as new computer models began entering the market in

rapid succession with little differentiation and that products which are well-positioned

within a market niche are typically long-lived. To take into account the overlap effect of

products within a product category and because life cycles of products are short and

behave irregularly, Modis suggests that growth-curves be used to describe a whole family

of products or a whole generation of technology.

Application of Life Cycle Theory Literature

Given the first hypothesis of the study, to determine the existence of a "diet life

cycle," it is important to gain a clear understanding of the theory which supports the

Product Life Cycle concept. Additionally, this area of the literature review provides

examples of research in which the product life cycle has been modified in order to

analyze, for example, a specific industry or trend. The body of theory does suggest the

possibility of modifying the product life cycle concept in order to explain the relationship

of some unit of analysis, for example, health information over time.

As suggested by Heller in the previous section, the life cycle may be based upon

originality of an idea (or product). This statement is also supported by Modis, who

suggests that longer-lived products are positioned within a niche market and that

competing products (or ideas) entering the niche market will affect the longevity of the

original product. This can be applied to the idea that information about diets and dieting

is a market in which information is demanded by consumers and supplied by doctors,

corporations, the media, private individuals, etc. As information about a particular diet

trend enters the marketplace, it does so with a certain degree of originality as compared to









the replaced or previous dieting trends. As the demand for information relating to the

dieting trend increases, competition floods the diet information market, eventually

reaching a point of saturation, resulting in a loss of originality. The cycle repeats itself as

a new and more original diet trend becomes popular and information about that diet trend

is demanded and supplied, increasing to yet another point of saturation.

In addition, the use of the life cycle theory applied to a "generation of technology,"

such as the low-carbohydrate dieting trend, may be more useful than considering only the

life cycle of a particular diet, such as the Atkins or South Beach diet.














CHAPTER 3
DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

A database was complied of newspaper and magazine articles on diets and dieting

in the United States from 1995 through 2004. In addition, data from national bestseller

lists were collected from 1996 through 2004. These articles and bestseller lists provide

data that are related to the research hypotheses: that dieting trends occur in cycles, such

that they follow a cyclical pattern similar to the product life-cycle theory and that demand

for orange juice is correlated with health-and diet-related information in the media.

National and Regional Media Data Collection

The content analysis method was used to collect, code, and analyze popular news

media sources for articles relating to low-carbohydrate diets and dieting. Newspapers

and magazines were selected based on circulation, a method similar to that which was

used by the International Food Information Council Foundation (2003) in their report

"Food for Thought."

Electronic Databases

Data collection targeted articles that were printed in national and regional news

sources and were available through the University of Florida electronic library databases.

During the data collection, three electronic databases were used: Factiva for all regional

and all but one national newspaper, ProQuest for the remaining national newspaper, and

InfoTrac for all national magazines. Each of these databases allow for keyword

searching within a specified date range and access to full text versions of the articles

meeting specified search criteria. Across these three databases there is no difference









between truncation rules, which allow for variations of a keyword to be included in the

search.

This method is similar to the method employed by Breen (1997), who searched

LexisNexis, a database similar to those used in this research, to collect newspaper articles

in major papers from 1991 through 1994 by employing key search terms.

Sampling

In content analysis, the unit of analysis is an identifiable message or message

component, which serves as the basis for: 1) identifying the population and drawing a

sample, (2) determining which variables are measured, and/or (3) which variables serve

as the basis for reporting analyses. Units can be words, characters, themes, time periods,

interactions, or any other result of "breaking up a 'communication' into bits" (Carney,

1971).

The sampling for this analysis included a combination of sampling techniques.

The first technique, stratified sampling, was used when selecting what news media

sources were included in the analysis. The second technique employed was cluster

sampling, in which articles containing established keywords and printed from October

1995 through December 2004 were included in the analysis (Breen 1997). Duplicate

articles and those unrelated to the topic of concern yielded by the various keyword

searches were eliminated from the analysis, as suggested by Riechert (1995).

Data Collection

For each newspaper or magazine, the appropriate database was selected and using

the database search engine, archives were searched for all articles published from

October 1995 through December 2004 for each keyword string described below. Topical

coding of articles was completed as articles were collected from the electronic databases,









by searching for keywords as found in the citation or lead paragraph. The occurrence of

a search term in each article's citation or lead paragraph was used as an indication that

the article was related to the topic of concern. All collected articles were also examined

to ensure that duplicate and unrelated articles were eliminated from the analysis. Coding

did not commence until after all the sampling was completed.

Coding

Articles were sorted and coded according to the type of publication (national

newspaper, regional newspaper, or national magazine), source (New York Times, Atlanta

Journal-Constitution, Time Magazine, etc) and date published. Articles were then

grouped into four-week intervals corresponding with the orange juice scanner purchase

data collected from ACNielsen. This provided thirteen observations per year, with a total

of 122 national observations from October 1995 through December 2004 and 105

regional observations from January 1997 through December 2004.

Time Periods Considered

Articles from national newspapers and magazines were collected from October

1995 through December 2004, corresponding with the purchase data available from

ACNielsen representing purchases of 100% orange juice at drug stores, mass

merchandisers (i.e., Wal-Mart, Target, etc), and grocery stores with retail sales of two

million dollars or more. Articles from regional newspapers were collected from January

1997 through December 2004. This time interval was selected in order to capture the

frequency of media coverage immediately preceding the decline in purchases of orange

juice in the southern region, continuing through 2004. Bestseller rankings for "Ai kin '

New Diet Revolution" were collected from January 1996 through December 2004, and









from April 2003 through December 2004 for "The SNi,, Beach Diet," both of which

reflect the time intervals for which each book appeared on the weekly bestseller lists.

National Newspaper Analysis

The five largest newspapers (in terms of circulation) with circulation over

1,000,000 were considered for this analysis. As reported by the Audit Bureau of

Circulations, these newspapers are listed in Table 3.1.

Table 3.1: Newspaper Circulation, Greater than 1 Million Copies Sold.
Newspaper Location Circulation
USA Today New York City, NY 2,665,815
Wall Street Journal New York City, NY 2,106,774
New York Times New York City, NY 1,680,583
Los Angeles Times Los Angeles, CA 1,292,274
Washington Post Washington, DC 1,007,487
Source: Audit Bureau of Circulations (2004) "Top 150 Newspapers"

According to the Factiva database, The Wall Street Journal is a national daily

newspaper serving the business community with influential reports on companies,

markets, politics and international news. Since it is primarily read by business

professionals rather than the general public, the Wall Street Journal was excluded. This

condensed the analysis to four newspapers: the USA Today, The New York Times, the

Los Angeles Times, and the Washington Post.

Keyword Search

In order to collect articles concerning low-carbohydrate dieting printed from

October 1995 through December 2004, keywords were used to capture all articles

relating to low-carbohydrate diets. Articles from all national newspaper sources with the

exception of the Los Angeles Times were collected using the Factiva database. The

ProQuest database was used to collect Los Angeles Times articles. Keyword strings were

used to search the headline and lead paragraph in Factiva and the citation and abstract in









ProQuest. Since articles were collected on the basis of an article's topical content, (i.e.,

low-carbohydrate diets), these two methods of searching the articles returned comparable

results.

In both the Factiva and ProQuest databases, articles were collected on one of two

bases: 1) That the article contained the words low and any variations on the words

carbohydrate and diet; 2) That the article contained any variations of the word diet and

either the term Atkins or South Beach. This second criterion was considered essential

since many news articles were thought to provide information relating to the low-

carbohydrate dieting trend in addition to providing information about either of the two

major diet plans associated with low-carbohydrate dieting, Atkins or South Beach.

These keywords were selected with regards to the AP Stylebook and Briefing on

Media Law, which notes that it is generally unacceptable to include slang words in a

keyword search. The search terms, however, have been designed in such a way that

articles including slang terms associated with the topic are also captured, i.e. "carb"

instead of "carbohydrate." Additionally, the term low was included so that only those

articles relating to reduced-carbohydrate diets were collected, rather than articles

pertaining to high-carbohydrate diets (such as used by athletes).

A summary of the national diet media coverage data collection is provided in Table

3.2. This table also shows the number of articles collected for each search term and the

total number of articles excluded within each newspaper source. Table A. 1 in Appendix

A lists the summary of articles collected by period from October 1995 through December

2004.









Table 3.2: Summary of National Newspaper Data Collection
Search Terms Excluded:
Duplicates,
Atkins or Un-Related
Publication Name low and Atkins or Un-Related Total Sample
"carb" South Topic
Beach and
and diet
Diet
USA Today 60 117 104 73
New York Times 80 110 72 118
Los Angeles Times 128 121 128 121
The Washington Post 61 74 61 74
Grand Total 329 422 365 386


National Magazine Analysis

Magazines with the greatest paid circulation and classified as general news, general

health, female-specific, or male specific were identified. According to the Magazine

Publishers of America, the magazines with the largest circulation in these categories are

listed in Table 3.3.

Table 3.3: Magazine Circulation, Highest Paid Circulation Within Category.
Newspaper Category Circulation
Time General News 4,104,284
Prevention General Health 3,275,411
Better Homes and Gardens Women 7,608,913
Men's Health Men 1,686,195
Source: Magazine Publishers of America, (2004) Circulation Trends and Magazine
Handbook


Keyword Search

In order to collect articles concerning low-carbohydrate dieting printed from

January 1997 through December 2004, keywords were used to capture all articles relating

to low-carbohydrate diets. Articles from all selected national magazine sources were

collected using the InfoTrac database and keyword strings were used to search the full

article text. As with the national newspaper search, articles that met either of the

following criteria were collected: 1) That the article contained the words low and any









variation on the words carbohydrate and diet; 2) That the article contained any variation

of the word diet and either the term Atkins or South Beach.

A summary of the data collection is provided in Table 3.4. This table also shows

the number of articles collected for each search term and the number of articles excluded

by magazine source. Table A.1 in Appendix A lists the summary of articles collected by

period from October 1995 through December 2004.

Table 3.4: Summary of National Magazine Data Collection
Search Terms Excluded:
Duplicates,
Atkins or Un-Related
Publication Name low and Atkins or Un-Related Total Sample
"carb" South Topic
Beach and
and diet
Diet
Better Homes &
4 0 4 0
Gardens
Time 13 9 4 18
Prevention 24 4 10 18
Men's Health 29 4 11 22
Grand Total 70 17 29 58


Regional Newspaper Analysis

In order to further test the hypothesis that demand for orange juice is correlated

with health-and diet-related information in the media, a regional newspaper analysis was

conducted. In order to collect regional news articles concerning low-carbohydrate dieting

printed from January 1997 through December 2004, keywords were used to capture all

articles relating to low-carbohydrate diets. The southern region was selected for the

regional analysis since the region has historically had the highest consumption of orange

juice and is the region closest in proximity to the Florida citrus industry.

According to AC Nielsen, the Southern region consists of 16 states: Texas,

Oklahoma, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Florida, Tennessee,









Kentucky, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia, Delaware, and

Maryland. The newspaper analysis only included newspapers located in this defined

geographic area.

Newspapers were selected based on total circulation and newspapers with the

largest circulation within the region were considered. The top five newspapers within the

southern region geographical area that were available in full text through the University

of Florida's library databases are listed in Table 3.5.

Table 3.5: Southern Region Newspaper Circulation.
Newspaper Location Circulation
Houston Chronicle Houston, TX 737,580
Atlanta Journal Constitution Atlanta, GA 606,246
St. Petersburg Times St. Petersburg, FL 395,973
The Daily Oklahoman Oklahoma City, OK 288,948
The Times-Picayune New Orleans, LA 281,374
Source: Audit Bureau of Circulations (2004) "Top 150 Newspapers"

It is important to note that three of the newspapers with the highest circulation in

the region were not available through an electronic database at the University of Florida:

The Miami Herald (circulation: 416,530), Fort Worth Star (circulation: 326,803), and

Charlotte Observer (circulation: 278,573). All three are owned by the same company,

Knight-Ridder, and access restrictions are due to an agreement between the publisher and

various electronic databases.

Keyword Search

Since observable decreases in orange juice consumption began in 1998, the

regional analysis includes newspaper articles printed from January 1997 through

December 2004. In order to collect the articles concerning the low-carbohydrate diet

trend, the keyword search terms used for the two previous analyses were also applied to

the regional newspaper analysis. Since all articles for the regional analysis were









collected using the Factiva database, sampling was completed based on the occurrence of

search terms in the headline and/or lead paragraph.

A summary of the data collection is provided in Table 3.6. This table also shows

the number of articles collected for each search term and excluded by newspaper source.

Table A.2 in Appendix A lists the summary of articles collected in the Southern region by

period from January 1997 through December 2004.

Table 3.6: Summary of Regional Newspaper Data Collection, January 1997 through
December 2004
Excluded:
Search Terms Excluded:
Duplicates,
Atkins or Un-Related
Publication Name low and Atkins or Un-Related Total Sample
"carb" South Topic
Beach and
and diet
Diet
Houston Chronicle 112 70 70 113
Atlanta Journal 49 21 28 41
Constitution
St. Petersburg Times 36 27 30 33
The Daily Oklahoman 3 0 0 3
The Times-Picayune 42 0 9 33
Grand Total 242 119 138 223

Book Popularity as Ranked on National Bestseller Lists

Book popularity is generally measured by sales. Summaries of which are published

on a weekly basis by several organizations. The most well-known and recognized

bestseller list is published by The New York Times. A second, well-known bestseller list

is published by Publishers Weekly.

Data Collection

Data from book rankings on The New York Times Bestseller List were compiled

through the LexisNexis database by using a keyword search to obtain all bestseller lists

published from January 1996 through December 2004. Information was collected for all

diet books appearing on the bestseller lists for the selected time period, with an emphasis









on Dr. Robert Atkins' "Alkin, 'New Diet Revolution" and Dr. Arthur Agatston's "The

.1,nih Beach Diet."

It is important to note that for Dr. Alkin% 'New Diet Revolution and The .',nil

Beach Diet books, similar rankings may appear since the books were published in

different formats, paperback and hardcover respectively. Because of this difference, the

two books appear on different bestseller lists, which accounts for why both books appear

in the top bestseller position during the same week. It is also important to note that The

New York Times publishes several different topical bestseller lists, although the list that

both the Atkins and South Beach diet books appear on is the "advise" bestseller list for

either paperback or hardcover editions, respectively.

Publishers Weekly Bestseller Lists

According to the Scripps Howard News Service, Publishers Weekly bestseller lists

are compiled from data from large-city bookstores, bookstore chains and local best-seller

lists across the United States. Publisher's Weekly provides over 10 "bestseller" lists,

including: hardcover fiction and nonfiction; trade and mass market paperback; audio

fiction and nonfiction; children's picture books, fiction, and series; religion hardcover

and paperback; and books most borrowed for both fiction and nonfiction.

Data Collection

Data from book rankings as published by Publisher's Weekly were compiled

through the Factiva database by using a keyword search to obtain all bestseller lists

published from January 1996 through December 2004. Information was collected for all

diet books appearing on the bestseller list during the selected time period, with an

emphasis on Dr. Robert Atkins' "A kiiin 'New Diet Revolution" (see Table A.3 in









Appendix A) and Dr. Arthur Agatston's "The .n,,iah Beach Diet" (see Table A.4 in

Appendix A).

Although Publishers Weekly maintains over ten bestseller lists on the company

website, the two sets of lists considered in this data collection differentiated books by

type of cover and fiction or non-fiction. Therefore, rankings on the Publisher's Weekly

paperback bestseller list for "Dr. Atkins Diet Revolution" are compared to sales for all

other paperback titles and rankings for "The .n,,iuh Beach Diet" book are compared to all

other hardcover non-fiction titles.

Additional Data Collection

Variables that will be considered for analysis in Chapter 5 include: purchases

(PCGal), price (RP), gross rating point (GRP), field staff, and personal disposable income

(PDINC). Summary tables for the national and regional data collection for these

varibales are in Appendix A, Tables A.5 and A.6, respectively. Each table displays the

values for each variable per four-week period. Specific details of each data set are

provided in the following subsections.

Purchases (Variable: PCGal)

Orange juice scanner data were collected from ACNielsen to represent purchases

made within the United States and within the U.S. southern region. These data represent

four-week periods beginning with the period ending on October 7, 1995 and include

purchases made of 100% orange juice at most major outlets, including drug stores, mass

merchandisers (i.e., Wal-Mart, Target, etc), and grocery stores with retail sales of two

million dollars or more. Total expenditures and gallons purchased reflect all forms of

100% orange juice and includes reconstituted, not-from-concentrate, and frozen

concentrate.









Gallons purchased will be based upon scanner data collected as described in the

previous paragraph and placed on a per capital basis using population data collected by

the U.S. Census Bureau. Gallons purchased per capital will be used in order to isolate the

changes in individual purchases overtime as compared to total purchases overtime. Per

capital purchase data for the United States and southern region purchases are displayed in

Appendix B, Tables B. 1 and B.2, respectively.

Limitations of Purchase Data

According to the Florida Department of Citrus, the ACNielsen purchase estimates

indicate volume sales in all ACNielsen retail outlets, which includes U.S. grocery store

chains with sales greater than $2 million, Wal-Mart stores (excluding Sam's Club), and

mass merchandisers and drug stores with sales greater than $1 million. Hence, this data

set does not include all consumer purchases, most notably consumer purchases at food

service outlets (e.g., McDonalds, etc), smaller grocery retail chains and convenience

stores.

A second data limitation regards how estimated consumption for a season is

calculated. Some of the estimates used by the Florida Department of Citrus are

represented as the sum of Florida production, other U.S. production, and U.S. imports

minus the sum of U.S. exports, season beginning Florida inventory, and season ending

Florida inventory. When considering the potential for measurement error, it is expected

that Florida production and inventories and U.S. imports and exports are expected to be

measured with little error. The error, however, in measurement becomes an issue when

and how other U.S. state-by-state production is calculated, resulting in possible error in

measurement which may be traced to the differences between actual and average yields.

In addition, non-Florida, U.S. inventories are excluded from these estimates because of









missing data, which may at times result in more significant errors in presumed

consumption.

When averaging estimated consumption over a few years, however, the magnitude

of these errors may decrease to the extent that net non-Florida inventories (beginning

minus ending inventories) average near zero over the period in question.

Although the issue as to which source should be used for determining estimated

consumption still exists within the Florida citrus industry, for the purposes of this

research, purchase data collected by ACNielsen in the form of purchase scanner data

collected from outlets, as described in the previous section, are used for a proxy of

consumer purchases of orange juice.

Price (Variable: RP)

For the purposes of this research, retail prices are estimated by computing a

weighted average based upon individual expenditures and purchases for each form of

100% orange juice (Equation 3.1), where the weight is defined by market share for each

product form. This is to account for the shift in purchasing preferences from frozen

concentrated and reconstituted products to not-from-concentrate products. To adjust for

inflation, the calculated weighted price was transformed by deflating it by the Consumer

Price Index (Base Year = 1984). National and southern region quantity purchased and

purchase price for each product form are displayed in Appendix B, Tables B.3 and B.4,

respectively. To simplify the assumptions for this study, it is assumed that the popularity

of the low-carbohydrate diet will affect all product forms equally.









Pt'=((Q1o P1,)+(Q2 *P2,)+(Q3 *P3,)+(Q4 *P4,))/(Q1o +Q2 +Q3 +Q4o) (3.1)

Where, Q1 is the quantity of Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice, per period,
P1 is the price for Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice, per gallon,
Q2 is the quantity of Not-from-Concentrate Orange Juice, per period,
P2 is the price for Not-from-Concentrate Orange Juice, per gallon,
Q3 is the quantity of Reconstituted Orange Juice, per period,
P3 is the price for Reconstituted Concentrated Orange Juice, per gallon,
Q4 is the quantity purchased for Shelf Stable Orange Juice per period, and
P4 is the price for Shelf Stable Orange Juice per period.

Gross Rating Point (Variable: GRP)

According to a Nielsen Media Research glossary, the Gross Rating Point (GRP) is

a unit of measurement of audience size. It is used to measure the exposure to one or

more programs or commercials, without regard to multiple exposures of the same

advertising to individuals. See Table A.5 and A.6 for values of estimated GRP's for

orange juice promotions and advertisements during the period of study.

This information was included in the regression analysis to help further explain

changes in orange juice purchases that might be attributed to television and radio

programs or commercials paid for by the Florida Department of Citrus.

Field Staff (Variable: FieldStaff)

The Florida Department of Citrus field staff who worked with retailers and food

service providers to promote Florida citrus and helped retailers in the areas of

merchandising, in-store promotions, as well as with category management such as

allocating shelf space. They also helped coordinate Florida Department of Citrus generic

advertising with retailer promotions. Since March 2001, the field staff has largely been

eliminated. In this analysis, the existence of field staff will be represented by a dummy

variable. The variable will have a value equal to 1 for October 1995 through February

2001 and a value equal to 0 for March 2001 through January 2005.









Personal Disposable Income (Variable PCINC)

Personal disposable income is monthly income less taxes and was obtained from

the U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis by the Florida

Department of Citrus. Since orange juice is not considered a necessity item, it is assumed

that purchases of orange juice are paid for with a household's disposable income. In

order to account for inflation, aggregate personal disposable income was first deflated by

the Consumer Price Index (Base Year = 1984) and then placed on a per capital basis by

dividing by population (U.S. and southern region, respectively) as reported by the U.S.

Census Bureau. Table B. 1 and B.2 list the values of this variable for both the U.S. and

the Southern region.

This information was useful in the regression analysis to help further explain

changes in orange juice purchases that might be attributed to changes in disposable

household income, especially since disposable household income has increased over

time.














CHAPTER 4
LIFE CYCLE HYPOTHESIS

One hypothesis identified for this research project was to determine whether or not

dieting trends occur in cycles, such that they follow a cyclical pattern similar to the

product life-cycle theory. To test this hypothesis, the Product Life Cycle theory is

applied to the data collected for orange juice per capital purchases (both regional and

national) and the data collected during the content analysis of national and regional

newspaper and/or magazine articles and the book rankings for "A kin, 'New Diet

Revolution" and "The .SN,,tl Beach Diet" books as reported by The New York Times and

Publisher's Weekly.

Product Life Cycle Theory

As discussed in Chapter 2, Lilien and Kotler (1983) state that the product life cycle

model (PLCM) was developed originally to study the sales and profit patterns over time

of branded products. According to Johnson (2002), the PLCM can be divided into four

stages: introduction, growth, maturity, and decline and that these product life cycle stages

vary in length.

Blank (2002) argues that although the model was developed originally to look at

specific products or product lines, it can be extended to firms and to industries. He

modified the PLCM for use in analyzing the U.S. agriculture industry with regards to

economic performance overtime.









Diet Life Cycle

Hypothesis 1 stated, "Dieting trends occur in cycles, such that they follow a

cyclical pattern similar to the product life-cycle theory." In order to determine whether

or not dieting trends follow a pattern similar to the PLCM, the frequency of articles and

rankings of book popularity will be graphed. To determine the existence of a life cycle

curve, the following parameters are used to define the phases of the life cycle for diet-

related information in newspapers and magazines.

The introduction phase will be characterized by little to minimum number of

articles printed each four-week period. As the frequency of articles increases, the life

cycle will shift into the growth phase, which will be characterized by the increasing

frequency at an increasing rate of topically-related articles for the given time period. As

the inflection point is reached where frequency of articles is still increasing but now at a

decreasing rate, the maturity phase begins and continues until the frequency of articles

per period peaks. This will then lead to the decline phase, in which the frequency of

articles printed each four-week period decreases to a frequency either equal to or less

than the beginning of the introduction phase.

Like most trends and fads, determining how to measure or track the life cycle of a

diet is a challenge since a dieting trend may impact many different components of society

and may be associated with both negative and positive impacts upon various industries.

The impact of a dieting trend upon an industry seems evident considering the most recent

low-carbohydrate dieting trend.

Diet trends in general capture public attention through print (media, books, etc) and

by word of mouth, which seems especially true considering the recent low-carbohydrate

trend. MacInnis, et al (1991) defined health motivation as the consumer's willingness to









perform and interest in performing said health behaviors, such as dieting and weight

reduction. Therefore, willingness to adjust health behaviors due to diet media coverage

found in books and newspaper or magazine articles relating to the low-carbohydrate

dieting trend may be a proxy for the effect of diet media coverage upon a particular

industry. In addition, Moorman and Matulich's (1993) research discovered that health

motivation increases the amount of diet information acquired from media sources but not

information acquired from casual sources, such as friends and family. Therefore, this

research project involves defining diet media coverage as that which is obtained from

media articles and books.

Source of Diet Information: Newspapers and Magazines

As described in Chapter 3, media articles were collected electronically by using

journal databases available through the University of Florida library system. Articles

selected were related to the general topic of low-carbohydrate diets, the Atkins diet, or

The S.wN,,l Beach Diet. As elaborated in Chapter 3, a total of 667 articles published from

October 1995 through December 2004 were collected for the United States and the

southern region, from magazine and newspaper sources. Articles were coded by date and

separated according to four-week periods (13 periods, annually), which corresponded

with the available data set on the consumer purchases of orange juice.

Of the total articles collected (U.S. and Southern region), 76.1% were printed from

November 2002 through December 2004. The two four-week periods corresponding

with January and February 2004 boasted the largest number of topically-related articles,

accounting for 13.6% of the total articles collected. On average, 5.5 articles topically-

relating to low-carbohydrate diets, the Atkins diet, or South Beach diet were printed per










four-week period, although there are some 4-week periods when no articles were

collected.


30
25
o 20

E 15
a0 10
LL..-
z 5 AA





Four-Week Periods

Figure 4.1: Total Media Articles (January 1995 through December 2004)

For those articles collected from national newspaper and magazine sources, a total

of 444 topically-related articles were found, with an average of 3.6 articles per four week

period. As indicated in Figure 4.1, a high concentration of articles (74.3%) were

published in national newspapers and magazines from November 2002 through

December 2004 and the two four-week periods with the highest frequency of articles

were January and February 2004 (12.2% of the total articles collected). In relation to

Hypothesis 1, the graph of total media articles does appear to indicate the presence of a

crude approximation of a life cycle curve. This may also serve as an indication of a diet

life cycle if the frequency of national newspaper and magazine articles are an appropriate

proxy for measuring the popularity of a dieting trend by actual dieting consumers.











30
25
0 I 20

) 15

00
19 5


0 0 01 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Four-Week Periods

Figure 4.2: National Newspaper Articles (October 1995 through December 2004)


8 -
7

r1 6
o <


1-* 3 1








Figure 4.3: National Magazine Articles (October 1995 through December 2004)
o 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 < 0
Four-Week Periods

Figure 4.3: National Magazine Articles (October 1995 through December 2004)


Of the total articles collected from U.S. media sources, 386 articles were collected

from national newspaper sources and 58 from national magazine sources. As indicated in

Figure 4.2, high concentrations of newspaper articles (76.4%) were printed from

November 2002 through December 2004 and the two four-week periods corresponding

with the highest frequency of articles (13.8%) occurred during January and February

2004.









The frequency of national newspaper articles over time also appears to follow a

crude approximation of a life cycle curve, as described in the previous section.

Considering the four general phases of a life cycle, it appears that the introduction phase

of the cycle is the longest in duration and occurs from October 1996 through June 2002,

followed by the growth phase, which appears to occur from July 2002 through December

2004. The maturity phase, which concludes in the four-week period in which the number

of articles printed per period reaches the maximum frequency, occurs from January

though June 2004. Finally, the decline phase occurs from July 2004 through January

2005 (see Table A. 1 in Appendix A for frequency of diet media coverage collected from

national newspapers and magazines).

As indicated in Figure 4.3, a high concentration of articles collected from national

magazines (60.34%) were printed from November 2002-December 2004, 16.1% less than

the percentage of articles published by national newspapers during the same time period.

Since magazine articles were printed on a monthly to bimonthly basis, it is not surprising

to note that an average of 0.5 articles was printed each four-week period. Also indicated

in Figure 4.2, the two four-week periods corresponding with the highest frequency of

magazine articles collected (15.6% of total) occurred during July and August 2004. This

is a difference of five months when compared to the two month period with the highest

frequency of both total news articles and national newspaper articles collected.

Similar to the trends of national newspaper articles, the trend of national magazine

articles also appears to follow an introduction, growth, maturity, and decline, although

the phases do not occur during the same time periods. The introduction phase for diet

media coverage as collected from national magazine articles occurs from October 1995










through July 2003 and is 13 periods longer than the introduction phase for national

newspaper articles. The growth phase is also similar to that of the diet media coverage

collected from national newspapers and occurs from August 2003 through January 2004.

This is followed by the maturity phase, which occurs during the two four-week periods

corresponding with July and August 2004, which is shorter in duration when compared

with the maturity phase of national newspaper articles. Lastly, the decline phase for diet

media coverage as collected from national magazines occurs from September 2004

though January 2005.


20
U 18
.2 16
o < 14 -
14
S12
S10 -
6
U-- 8 1


0




Four-Week Periods

Figure 4.4: Regional Newspaper Articles (January 1995 through December 2004)

As indicated in Figure 4.4, of the 223 articles collected from Southern region

newspaper sources, a high concentration (79.7%) of articles were printed from November

2002-December 2004, which is 3.3% more than the number of national news articles

printed during the same period. Additionally, Figure 4.4 shows that the two four-week

periods in which the highest frequency of regional newspaper articles (13.8%) occurred

during January and February 2004. This is the same two month period with the highest

frequency of news articles collected from national newspaper sources.









The frequency of articles collected from southern region newspapers also appears

to follow a trend similar to that displayed in Figure 4.2 for national newspapers. The

introduction phase for diet media coverage collected from southern region newspapers

occurs from October 1995 through August 2003, 21 periods longer than the introduction

phase for national newspaper articles. The growth phase follows and appears to occur

from March 2003 through December 2004, representing eight four-week period which is

shorter in duration than the growth phase for diet media coverage collected from national

newspaper articles. However, this phase does terminate for both sets of data during the

same four-week period (December 2004). The maturity phase for diet media coverage

collected from regional newspapers appears to occur from January and September 2004,

which concludes two months later than the maturity phase for national newspaper

articles, but only one month later than the maturity phase for national magazine articles.

Finally, the decline phase occurs from October 2004 though January 2005 (see Table A.2

for frequency of regional news articles collected for each four-week period).

Source of Diet Information: Diet Books

A second source of diet information is diet books. These books are generally

written by an individual or group of individuals recognized as doctors of medicine or

health experts, such as Dr. Robert Atkins, author of"Atkins New Diet Revolution"

(published in 1992) and Dr. Arthur Agatston, author of "The S,,nul Beach Diet"

(published in 2003).

Because book sale information is not considered public information, a second best

proxy for book popularity, and perhaps diet popularity, are book bestseller status as

determined by national bestseller lists. The most recognized bestseller list is the list

published by The New York Times. Although it is the most recognized and represents









over 4,000 bookstores plus wholesalers serving 50,000 other retailers, this bestseller list

might not be the best proxy for book popularity, since rankings are collected based on a

list of pre-selected potential bestsellers compiled by The New York Times, which is then

ranked according to sales by bookstores and warehouses. Additionally, books are ranked

by type of book and therefore rankings might not account for the popularity of the diet

book as compared to other fiction and non-fiction best sellers. For The New York Times

Bestseller List, books about diets and weight loss are generally ranked on the "advise,

how-to, and miscellaneous" bestseller list.

A second bestseller list, published by Publishers Weekly, may serve as a better

proxy of book popularity, since book rankings are compiled using sales rankings

submitted by large-city bookstores, bookstore chains and local best-seller lists across the

United States. Additionally, books ranked by Publishers Weekly are only separated by

the type of binding used, hardcover or paper back, and whether the book is classified as

fiction or non-fiction. Therefore, rankings on the Publisher's Weekly paperback

bestseller list for "Dr. Atkins Diet Revolution" are compared to sales for all other

paperback non-fiction titles and rankings for "The SN',,it Beach Diet" book are compared

to all other hardcover non-fiction titles. For these reasons, the weekly bestselling

rankings reported by Publisher's Weekly are used as the primary proxy of diet popularity

with regards to diet books as sources for diet information.

Atkins New Diet Revolution

As previously noted, Dr. Robert Atkins first published his low-carbohydrate diet in

1972. In 1992, Atkins' republished his low-carbohydrate diet plan under the title,

"A kiin 'New Diet Revolution." Since 1996 this book has become a bestseller and has led









a new generation of dieters on the quest to reduce weight by reducing carbohydrate intake

and increasing protein and fat intake.

Using the rankings published by Publishers Weekly to proxy book (and perhaps

diet) popularity, it appears that popularity for the low-carbohydrate diet was bimodal,

indicating that the popularity of the low-carbohydrate diet as influenced by Atkins' diet

book occurred twice, from December 1996 through December 2000 and again from

December 2001 through December 2003.



Week Ending

.6o .bo ^\cb o ^o o ^\,A \(A \C \^0 oo, \Cgb \




3 -

S6


s 12 -

15

Figure 4.5: A kiii, 'New Diet Revolution Weekly Rankings, Publishers Weekly Bestseller
List (April 28, 1996 through December 28, 2003)

According to the Publisher's Weekly bestseller list (Figure 4.5), Atkins' book did

not achieve the top bestseller status until March 1998, 60 weeks after first appearing on

the bestseller list and then fell from the bestseller list 58 weeks after being ranked in the

top bestseller position for eight weeks from February 28, 1999 through April 18, 1999.

For the second rise in book popularity, achieving top bestseller status took only 40 weeks,

20 less than before. The decline in book popularity also occurred over the span of several

weeks, falling from the bestseller list 21 weeks after being ranked the top non-fiction










bestseller position for 23 weeks from December 15, 2002 through May 11, 2003. After

January 2004, the Atkins' book was no longer ranked in the top 15 of the Publishers

Weekly Bestseller Lists.


Week Ending
So db d^) A( a A (.OR QO SNN oR&&oo o


0
m 1
2
3-F
4
a) 5
6

Figure 4.6: A kin' 'New Diet Revolution Weekly Rankings, New York Times (April 28,
1996 through December 28, 2003)

Rankings for Atkins' diet book on The New York Times Bestseller List (see Figure

4.6), while following a similar pattern as the Publisher's Weekly bestseller list, does not

form as uniform of a pattern. According to this list, Atkins' diet book first appeared on

the bestseller list in April 1996, eight months prior to the book's first appearance on the

Publisher's Weekly bestseller list. It is also interesting to note that Atkins' diet book was

ranked in The New York Times top bestseller position throughout most of 1999, with the

exception of weeks during which holidays such as Valentine's Day, Mother's Day, and

Father's Day occurred. During those weeks, books from the popular series, "Chicken

Soup for the Soul" were ranked in the top bestseller position. After February 2004, the

Atkins book was no longer ranked on The New York Times Bestseller Lists.

Given the slow rise and decline in popularity for Atkins' diet book as indicated by

the Publishers Weekly data, it appears that the book's popularity increased due to






58


cascades of tiny, endogenous shocks, such as casual recommendations (friends and

family). Sornette, et al (2004) indicate that such books also descend the rankings more

slowly than those propelled by exogenous shocks, which also appears true given the

information displayed in Figures 4.5 and 4.6. Since endogenous shocks are primarily

from casual recommendations, it is not possible to determine whether or not these shocks

did occur and influence book popularity.

It is also possible that exogenous shocks occasionally caused other books to be

ranked above Atkins' diet book, but because of the nature of these shocks, Atkins' book

was able to repeatedly re-emerge as the top ranked book for an extended period of time.

This type of interaction might explain some of the variability in the "life-cycle" curves,

displayed in Figures 4.5 and 4.6.



Week Ending





~2-
m 10 0

4-


8-q


12

Figure 4.7: The .,iuh Beach Diet Weekly Rankings, Publishers Weekly (April 27, 2003
through December 12, 2004)

Publisher's Weekly bestseller rankings for Dr. Agatston's "South Beach Diet" book

are shown in Figure 4.7. Using these rankings to proxy book (and perhaps diet)

popularity, it appears that popularity for The .N,,,ih Beach Diet book also follows a curve










reminiscent of the product life cycle curve. Book popularity rose to the top bestseller

position only four weeks after first appearing on the bestseller list in April 2003, the same

month the book was published. The book began its descent from the list only 27 weeks

after having been ranked at the top of the list for 54 weeks.



Week Ending
Co Co Co 'IT I
Co C) C) C) C) C CN CN CN CD CD CD CD CD CD C) C) C) CN CN
NO 0 O N- 0 0 N N 1- 1 N- p 1- l- O 1- N- 1 p 0 N- CN
C\I C\I C\I C\I C\I C\ I C\I I I I I I I I
I n ( 00 M N M_ IT 0



2


4 -

5

Figure 4.8: The Sn.,,li Beach Diet Weekly Rankings, New York Times (April 27, 2003
through December 19, 2004)

Weekly bestseller rankings assigned for Agatston's diet book by The New York

Times are displayed in Figure 4.8. These rankings do not seem to follow a pattern similar

to the rankings from Publisher's Weekly, with the exception that the book did rise and

decline quickly from the bestseller list. According to The New York Times bestseller list,

the book first reached the top of the bestseller list in May 2003, four weeks after

publication release and having first appeared on the bestseller list. The book remained a

New York Times bestseller from July 2003 through September 2003, October through

November 2003, and from January through February 2004. However, rather than

declining in the bestseller rankings, the "South Beach Diet" book immediately fell from

the top bestseller position and permanently off the bestseller list in February 2004.









Given the abrupt rise and decline in popularity for Agatston's diet book, it seems

that the book's popularity increased due to exogenous shocks described by Sornette, et al

as a major media announcement, a celebrity endorsement, or a dignitary's death.

Horovitz (2004) did note that The SN.l,,u Beach Diet was endorsed by celebrities such as

Bette Midler, Nicole Kidman and former President Bill Clinton. Sornette, et al indicated

that book popularity motivated by exogenous shocks experience an instant rise in sales is

followed by a fairly quick decline, which appears to be the case in Figures 4.6 and 4.7.

Conclusions

The hypothesis was that dieting trends occur in cycles. For this study, an attempt to

determine whether or not a diet life cycle exists was tested by examining the prevalence

of diet information as found in newspapers, magazines, and books. The graphs of trends

representing the frequency of newspaper and magazine articles and book popularity,

however, do not strongly support the hypothesis that dieting trends occur in cycles. The

evidence, as presented, is inconclusive and the hypothesis need not be rejected, since

some observations about bestseller rankings, newspaper and magazine articles hint at

cyclical patterns. This result may be due in part to the time period length selected for the

study.

This conclusion suggests the need for further research on whether diets do or do not

occur in cycles, and on what information relating to diets does or does not define the life

cycle of a diet. Further analysis of additional newspaper and magazine sources or other

sources of diet media coverage may better define the life cycle of a diet, and be more

accurate measures of this phenomenon.














CHAPTER 5
DIET MEDIA COVERAGE AND PURCHASES HYPOTHESIS

The main purpose of this chapter is test the hypothesis that diet trends have

impacted the purchases of orange juice. In the first section of this chapter, trends in diet

media coverage and purchases of orange juice are investigated. In the second section a

demand equation for orange juice in the United States is estimated, taking into

consideration the effect that diet media coverage, specifically low-carbohydrate diet

media coverage, has had upon per capital purchases of 100% orange juice.

Trends in Diet Media Coverage and Per Capita Purchases of Orange Juice

To compare trends in diet media coverage and per capital purchases of orange juice,

data were represented as cumulative totals for each year included in the study.

U.S. Diet Media Coverage and Orange Juice Purchases

Figure 5.1 represents the annual cumulative U.S. per capital purchases of orange

juice and diet media coverage in national newspapers from 1996 through 2004. When

orange juice purchases decreased from 3.12 gallons per capital in 1998 to 3.05 gallons, the

number of newspaper articles topically related to low-carbohydrate diets increased from 4

to 15 articles, respectively. A similar trend occurred from 2000 through 2004; annual per

capital orange juice purchases decreased by 12.3% while newspaper articles about low-

carbohydrate diets increased by 700%. This indicates that decreases in U.S. orange juice

purchases are negatively correlated with increases in diet media coverage relating to low-

carbohydrate diets as printed in U.S. newspapers. Yet to be proven is whether this

correlation is spurious or causal.











3.20 250
3.10 8
200 T
a 3.00 e
2.90 150
S2.80 100
.0100
2.70 z
50 yj
2.60 -
2.50 0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
--Purchases 2.98 3.09 3.12 3.05 3.10 3.07 2.99 2.86 2.72
-u-News Articles 2 3 4 15 24 19 27 94 192
Time (Annual)

Figure 5.1: U.S. Per Capita Orange Juice Purchases and Newspaper Articles on Low-
Carbohydrate Diets and Dieting, Annual (1996 through 2004)

Annual totals of U.S. per capital orange juice purchases and frequency of national

magazine articles from 1996 through 2004 are displayed in Figure 5.2. U.S. per capital

purchases of orange juice began declining in 2000, a year when there was only one

magazine article identified in the database. As per capital purchases of orange juice

continued to decrease (12.3% by 2004), the frequency of magazine articles continued to

increase, resulting in a total of 22 magazine articles in 2004. The information displayed

in Figure 5.2 indicates that decreases of U.S. orange juice purchases negatively correlate

with increases in diet media coverage about low-carbohydrate diets in national

magazines. Again, the potential causality (i.e., articles led to decreased purchases) can

not be proven, but the correlation suggests that this is possible.







63



3.20 25
3.10 8
20 "T
S- 3.00 -




15
2.90
2.80
2.70 -
5 M2
2.60 -
2.50 0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
--Purchases 2.98 3.09 3.12 3.05 3.10 3.07 2.99 2.86 2.72
-u-Magazine Articles 4 4 1 5 1 1 9 11 22
Time (Annual)

Figure 5.2: U.S. Per Capita Orange Juice Purchases and Magazine Articles on Low-
Carbohydrate Diets and Dieting, Annual (1996 through 2004)


Southern Region Diet Media Coverage and Orange Juice Purchases

The information displayed in Figure 5.3 represents the annual cumulative Southern

region per capital purchases of orange juice and newspaper articles found from 1997

through 2004. Similar to the comparison of U.S. per capital orange juice purchases and

newspaper articles, Southern region per capital purchases of orange juice began declining

in 2001. From 2001 through 2004, regional orange juice purchases decreased by 30.20%

and regional diet coverage in newspapers increased from 2 articles in all of 2001 to 122

articles in all of 2004. This indicates that decreases in Southern region orange juice

purchases are negatively correlated with diet media coverage by regional newspapers,

and that there may be a direct causal link between the two trends.











3.50 140
3.00 120 ,
o o-
S2.50 100 '-
S2.00 80 <
| 1.50 60 1
1.00 40
o o
"2 0.50 20 Z
0.00 0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
--Purchases 3.18 3.23 3.16 3.17 3.10 2.54 2.38 2.16
-- News Articles 3 9 6 12 2 16 52 122
Time (Annual)

Figure 5.3: Southern Region Orange Juice Purchases and Newspaper Articles, Annual
(1997 through 2004).


The Base Model, U.S. Orange Juice Demand

In order to estimate demand for orange juice by incorporating a diet media

coverage variable, variables that may also be necessary to explain variations in per capital

purchases of orange juice must first be considered. As discussed in Chapter 3, the

explanatory variables include in the base model are price, gross rating point, field staff,

and per capital disposable income. In order to incorporate the effect of diet media

coverage, a diet variable will be constructed and defined by the frequency of diet

coverage in newspapers and magazines within each four-week period.

The United States retail purchases of orange juice data is the proxy used for the

model's dependent variable, U.S. consumer demand for orange juice. The demand of

orange juice is expressed as:

D= f(RP, DC, DC2,GRP, ST, PCINC, P2...P13) 5.1


Where RP is the real weighted price per gallon of orange juice,
DC1 is diet media coverage collected from national newspapers,
DC2 is diet media coverage collected from national magazines,
ST is a dummy variable representing the existence of FDOC field staff,









PCINC is personal disposable income on a per capital basis, and
P2 through P13 are seasonal dummy variables representing the 13 four-week periods
annually, with the first four weeks of January as the base reference for P2 through P13.

Real weighted price is included, since the model is being used to estimate

consumer demand for orange juice and typically price is an explanatory variable included

in demand equations. The weighted price, however, is used to account for the differences

in price and market share across the four orange juice product forms: Reconstituted, Not-

from-Concentrate, Frozen Concentrate, and Shelf Stable.

Diet media coverage is split between two variables, representing the frequency of

articles representing diet coverage for newspapers and magazines, respectively. These

explanatory variables are included to determine whether such information has an effect

upon per capital orange juice purchases and to test the second hypothesis.

GRP represents the number of Gross Rating Points, which is a measurement of

exposure to one or more media programs or commercials. This explanatory variable was

included to determine whether information about orange juice portrayed through

television and radio programs or commercials has an effect upon per capital purchases and

explains some variation in the dependent variable.

The dummy variable for field staff represents the existence of field staff as funded

by the Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC). Field staff helped retailers in the area of

merchandising, in-store promotions, and category management in addition to

coordinating FDOC generic advertising with in-store promotions. The field staff was

largely eliminated in March 2001 and their existence or non-existence may explain some

variation in the purchases of orange juice.









As mentioned in Chapter 3, orange juice is not considered an item of necessity and

purchases are therefore assumed to be taken from a household's discretionary income.

Given that household income is a factor for determining consumers most likely to

purchase orange juice, changes in per capital discretionary income may explain some

variation in the purchases of orange juice.

Empirical Results, Steps Taken to Determine Best Base Model of Orange Juice
Demand

The demand equation was expressed in per capital terms and followed a linear

functional form. The resulting model explained over 91% of the variation in retail

purchases. When the Durbin-Watson test was used to test for autocorrelation, however,

the statistic indicated that the residuals from the base model had significant positive

autocorrelation (DW=0.417, DWL= 1.38190, DWu=2.04892).

The first step taken to correct for the presence of significant positive

autocorrelation was to remove the insignificant variables from the base model (gross

rating points and magazine diet coverage). The resulting model explained over 91% of

the variation in retail purchases. When the Durbin-Watson test was used to test for

autocorrelation, however, the statistic indicated that the residuals from the base model

had significant positive autocorrelation (DW=0.41, DWL= 1.38190, DWu=2.04892).

The next step taken to correct for the continued presence of autocorrelation

involved applying the Cochran-Orcutt method. Habit persistence, which allows for the

effect of purchases in the previous time period upon current demand for orange juice, was

included as a variable in the modified base model (PCGAL1). Additionally, insignificant

variables from the base model were removed from the model in order to isolate the









impact of significant explanatory variables upon purchases of orange juice. This

modified base model was used in both the U.S. and Southern region analysis.

The Adjusted Base Model, U.S. Orange Juice Demand

The explanatory variables included in the model of U.S. consumer demand for

orange juice were: price, newspaper diet media coverage, field staff, per capital disposable

income, and per capital purchases of orange juice in the previous period.

The United States retail purchases of orange juice data set from ACNielsen is the

proxy used for the model's dependent variable, U.S. consumer demand for orange juice.

The demand of orange juice is expressed as:

D, = f(RP, DC, ST, PCINC, PCGALtz, P2...P13) (5.2)

Where RP is the real weighted price per gallon of orange juice,
DC is national newspaper diet media coverage,
ST is a dummy variable representing the existence of FDOC field staff,
PCINC is personal disposable income on a per capital basis,
PCGALt_1 is the dependent variable (per capital purchases of orange juice) lagged by one
period, and
P2 through P13 are seasonal dummy variables representing the 13 four-week periods
annually, with the first four weeks of January as the base reference for P2 through P13.

Variables are as described in previous sections, with the exception of the

explanatory variable representing per capital orange juice purchases from the previous

period (PCGALt-1). This variable is included in the model to represent the likelihood that

an individual will not change purchase habits of orange juice from period to period. An

exception to this would be when purchase decisions are influenced by some factor, such

as diet media coverage, and causes a consumer to not purchase orange juice, although

orange juice.









Empirical Results, U.S. Orange Juice Demand

The demand equation was expressed in per capital terms and followed a linear

functional form. The resulting model (Table 5.1) explained over 96% of the variation in

retail purchases and all the parameters had the expected signs. For the SAS program used

to estimate the elasticity, regressions, and correlation analyses, refer to Appendix Cl.

Table 5.1: Estimated Model Results of U.S. Per Capita Orange Juice Demand
Variable Description Parameter Std Error t-Statistic
Intercept 0.115 0.016 7.33
PCGAL1 Dependent Variable (t-1) 0.641 0.053 12.20
RP Real Price -0.008 0.001 -5.79
PDINC Disposable Income 58.502 10.600 5.52
DC Newspaper Diet Media Coverage -0.0002 0.0001 -3.14
ST Field Staff 0.004 0.001 3.60
P2 Period 2 Dummy Variable -0.019 0.002 -10.24
P3 Period 3 Dummy Variable -0.009 0.002 -6.45
P4 Period 4 Dummy Variable -0.018 0.002 -10.39
P5 Period 5 Dummy Variable -0.016 0.002 -9.79
P6 Period 6 Dummy Variable -0.016 0.002 -8.14
P7 Period 7 Dummy Variable -0.016 0.002 -7.40
P8 Period 8 Dummy Variable -0.012 0.002 -5.00
P9 Period 9 Dummy Variable -0.008 0.002 -4.41
P10 Period 10 Dummy Variable -0.008 0.002 -4.45
P11 Period 11 Dummy Variable -0.011 0.002 -6.48
P12 Period 12 Dummy Variable -0.008 0.002 -4.77
P13 Period 13 Dummy Variable -0.006 0.001 -4.32
Total R2 0.9649
Regress R2 0.9649
Durbin-h 0.5641
Pr > h 0.2864


The relationship between per capital purchases and purchases from the previous

time period (lagged one period) were positive and significant, returning a coefficient of

0.64 and a t-statistic of 12.20. This indicates that purchases of orange juice are based on

habit and consumers who previously purchased orange juice are more likely to purchase









orange juice again than those consumers who have not previously purchased orange

juice.

The relationship between purchases and price was negatively related and

significant, resulting in a coefficient of-0.008. This indicates that the expected inverse

relationship between price and demand exists and that as the price per gallon of orange

juice increases, per capital purchases of orange juice decrease.

The relationship between purchases and diet media coverage was negatively related

and significant, returning a coefficient of-0.0002. This suggests that as diet media

coverage in newspapers topically related to low-carbohydrate diets, including the Atkins'

and South Beach diets, increased, purchases of orange juice decreased. Hypothesis 2

stated, "Demand for orange juice is correlated with health-and diet-related information in

the media." This coefficient result of -0.0002 and corresponding t-statistic of -3.14

indicates that the hypothesis should not be rejected and that the relationship between

purchases of orange juice and diet media coverage is significant.

The relationship between purchases and the dummy variable representing the

existence of field staff was positively related and significant. This suggests that the

existence of field staff who worked with retailers and food service in promoting Florida

citrus and helped retailers in the area of merchandising positively and significantly

affected purchases of orange juice. This also suggests that decreases in purchases of

orange juice may be due, in part, to the elimination of field staff who aided in promotion

and merchandising efforts of orange juice.

The relationship between purchases and disposable per capital income was

positively related and significant, returning a coefficient of 58.502. This result









corresponds with research indicating that the consumption of orange juice increases with

household income.

Finally, the relationship between the seasonal dummy variables, which represented

the 13 four-week periods each year, and the dependent variable were all negative and

significant. This suggests that demand for orange juice is highest during the first four-

week period of each year.

Autocorrelation

According to Gujarati (2003), autocorrelation is the correlation between members

of a series of observations ordered in time or space. An assumption of the classical linear

regression model is that autocorrelation does not exist in the error terms of the

explanatory variables. To test for this error, the Durbin h statistic was calculated which

resulted in a measurement of 0.5641 and a probability of 0.2864. Consider the null

hypothesis, "no autocorrelation." For a probability greater than 0.05, the null hypothesis

is not rejected and for a probability less than 0.05, the null hypothesis is rejected. For the

national model, the Durbin h probability is greater than 0.05; therefore, the null

hypothesis is not rejected, suggesting that autocorrelation is not present in the U.S.

demand model for orange juice.

Elasticity at the Means for U.S. Orange Juice Demand

To determine the price, income, and information elasticities, the mean average of

each variable was calculated. Those values and the measurements of elasticity for each

variable are displayed in Table 5.2.









Table 5.2: Elasticity at the Mean for Price, Income, and Diet Media Coverage in the
Model for U.S. Orange Juice Demand.
Elasticity
Price (per gallon) -0.241
Income (per capital) 0.143
Diet Media Coverage -0.004


The price elasticity for orange juice is -0.24, which indicates that as the price per

gallon increases, demand for orange juice decreases. Since the absolute value of the price

elasticity is less than 1.0, price elasticity is inelastic, indicating that price has a relatively

small impact on demand.

The income elasticity is 0.14, which indicates that as per capital discretionary

income increases, per capital purchases increase. Since the elasticity is positive but less

than 1.0, orange juice is classified as a normal necessity, which indicates that demand is

not sensitive to changes in income most likely because there is a limited need to consume

additional quantities of orange juice as income increases.

The elasticity of diet media coverage is -0.004. This measurement of elasticity

indicates an inverse relationship between diet media coverage and per capital purchases of

orange juice, although the frequency of newspaper articles relating to low-carbohydrate

diets has a relatively small impact on demand.

U.S. Correlation Analysis

Kennedy (1993) states that high correlation between variables is defined by

correlation coefficients greater than 0.80; the correlation analysis discussion for the U.S.

model is with respect to the values displayed in Table 5.3.










Table 5.3: Correlation Coefficient Matrix for National Orange Juice Demand Model,
significance of each correlation also shown.


Per
Capita
Purchases


Per Capita
Purchases

Previous
Period Per
Capita
Purchases

Price

Per Capita
Discretiona
ry Income

Diet Media
Coverage


Field Staff


1.000



0.856
(<.0001)


-0.813
(<.0001)


-0.448
(<.001)


-0.440
(<.001)


0.493
(<.001)


Previous
Period Per
Capita
Purchases

0.856
(<.0001)



1.000



-0.732
(<.0001)


-0.456
(<.0001)


-0.429
(<.0001)


0.479
(<.0001)


Price


-0.813
(<.0001)


-0.732
(<.0001)



1.000


0.837
(<.001)


0.583
(<.001)


-0.738
(<.001)


Per Capita
Discretionary
Income


-0.448
(<.001)


-0.456
(<.0001)


0.837
(<.001)


1.000


0.656
(<.001)


-0.850
(<.001)


Given the information displayed in Table 5.3, direct relationships between each of

the explanatory variables and between the explanatory variables and dependent variable

can be examined. Per capital purchases and purchases from the previous period were

highly correlated, significant and positive. This result indicates consumer habit

persistence when purchasing orange juice. Price was also highly correlated with the

dependent variable (coefficient greater than 0.80). Price was negatively correlated and

significant, which suggests that as price increases, per capital purchases of orange juice in

the U.S. decrease. Price was also significantly and negatively correlated with per capital

purchases from the previous period.


Diet
Media
Coverage


0.440
(<.001)


-0.429
(<.0001)


0.583
(<.001)


0.656
(<.001)


1.000


-0.562
(<.001)


Field
Staff


0.493
(<.001)


0.479
(<.0001)


-0.738
(<.001)


-0.850
(<.001)


-0.562
(<.001)


1.000









Although not strongly correlated, the relationship between diet media coverage as

defined by the frequency of articles in national newspapers relating to low-carbohydrate

diets and dieting was negatively correlated with per capital purchases of orange juice and

purchases from the previous period, indicating that as diet coverage in newspapers

increases, per capital purchases of orange juice decrease. The relationship between field

staff and per capital purchases of orange juice was positively correlated and significant,

suggesting that the existence of field staff, who aided with promotional and

merchandising of orange juice, increased per capital purchases of orange juice.

As for the correlations between explanatory variables, the relationship between diet

media coverage and income was positively correlated and significant, suggesting that

consumers with higher levels of discretionary income may be more able to access diet

media coverage in national newspapers. The relationship between field staff and diet

media coverage was negatively correlated and significant, suggesting that as the field

staff for the Florida Department of Citrus was eliminated, the diet media coverage in U.S.

newspapers increased.

Southern Region Orange Juice Demand Model

The U.S. Southern Region retail purchases of orange juice represent the regional

consumer demand for the product. The Southern region was selected as it is the region

with the highest total purchases of orange juice and includes the state of Florida, where

about 95 percent of oranges grown are processed into orange juice. During the 2002-

2003 season, Florida produced more than 1.2 billion gallons of orange juice.

According to the Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services

(2003), citrus groves represented 8.37 percent of Florida total farm acreage in 2002 and

accounted for 21 percent of Florida farm sales generating a value greater than $1 billion










dollars annually, second only to greenhouse and nursery products. Florida is the nation's

overwhelming leader in citrus production, accounting for more than 74 percent of the

annual U.S. production in 2002-2003. Florida produces 18.5 percent of the world's

oranges, ranking second only to Brazil, and Florida citrus growers cultivate 103.2 million

trees on 796,540 acres.

Figure 5.4 represents the U.S. and Southern region per capital purchases of orange

juice. The information displayed in the graph indicates that as U.S. per capital purchases

decreased, so followed Southern region per capital purchases. From 1997 through 2001,

Southern region per capital purchases were similar to U.S. retail per capital orange juice

purchases. From 2001 through 2002, however, Southern region per capital purchases fell

by 18.1%, a decrease much greater than the decrease in U.S. per capital purchases for the

same period, 2.6%. Overall, from 2001 through 2004, Southern region per capital

purchases of orange juice decline by 30.3% while U.S. purchases only declined by

11.4%.


4.00

) 3.50

1 3.0 -

2.50

2.00
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
SU.S. 2.98 3.09 3.12 3.05 3.10 3.07 2.99 2.86 2.72
---Southern 3.18 3.23 3.16 3.17 3.10 2.54 2.38 2.16
Annual, 1996 through 2004

Figure 5.4: U.S. and Southern Region Per Capita Purchases of Orange Juice, Annual
(1996 through 2004)









Given the much more prevalent decline within the southern region, relative to the

U.S. trend, an additional analysis and demand estimation for this region may provide

further insights into the effects of diet media coverage.

Empirical Results, Southern Region Orange Juice Demand

The demand of orange juice in the Southern region is expressed as:

D, = f (RP, DC, ST, PCINC, PCGALtz, P3...P13) (5.2)

Where RP is the real weighted price per gallon of orange juice in the Southern region,
DC is regional newspaper diet coverage,
ST is a dummy variable representing the existence of field staff,
PCINC is personal disposable income on a per capital basis,
PCGALt_1 is the dependent variable (per capital purchases of orange juice) lagged by one
period, and
P2 through P13 are seasonal dummy variables representing the 13 four-week periods
annually from January 1997 through January 2005.

Explanatory variables are the same as those used in the model of U.S. demand for

orange juice, with the exception of the information used to define the diet media coverage

variable. In the Southern region model, diet media coverage represents the number of

newspaper articles found in Southern region newspapers topically related to low-

carbohydrate diets.

The demand equation is expressed in per capital terms and follows a linear

functional form. The resulting model (Table 5.4) explains over 98% of the variation in

retail purchases of orange juice. For the SAS program used to estimate the elasticity,

regressions, and correlation analyses, refer to Appendix C2.









Table 5.4: Estimated Model Results of Southern Region Per Capita Orange Juice
Demand
Variable Description Parameter Std Error t-Statistic
Intercept 0.096 0.021 4.45
PCGAL Dependent Variable (t-1) 0.854 0.036 23.38
RP Real Price -0.023 0.006 -3.68
PCINC Per Capita Disposable Income 9.435 5.368 -1.57
DC Southern Newspaper Diet Coverage -0.0004 0.0002 -1.98
ST Field Staff 0.008 0.002 3.94
P2 Period 2 Dummy Variable -0.016 0.002 -6.35
P3 Period 3 Dummy Variable -0.006 0.002 -2.52
P4 Period 4 Dummy Variable -0.016 0.002 -6.32
P5 Period 5 Dummy Variable -0.012 0.003 -4.50
P6 Period 6 Dummy Variable 0.010 0.003 -3.69
P7 Period 7 Dummy Variable -0.010 0.003 -3.18
P8 Period 8 Dummy Variable 0.004 0.003 -1.34
P9 Period 9 Dummy Variable 0.0001 0.003 0.04
P10 Period 10 Dummy Variable -0.007 0.003 -2.88
P11 Period 11 Dummy Variable -0.006 0.003 -2.23
P12 Period 12 Dummy Variable -0.003 0.002 -1.26
P13 Period 13 Dummy Variable -0.018 0.002 -4.34
Total R2 0.9831
Regress R2 0.9831
Durbin-h 0.1010
P> h 0.4598


The relationship between purchases and price was negatively related and

significant, resulting in a coefficient of -0.02. This indicates that the expected inverse

relationship between price and demand exists and that as the price per gallon of orange

juice increases, per capital purchases of orange juice in the Southern region decrease.

The relationship between purchases and diet media coverage was negatively related

and significant, returning a coefficient of -0.0004. This coefficient, however, is just

insignificant at the 0.05 level (t-statistic equals 1.98), which suggests that the effect of

newspapers is not different than zero at the 95% confidence level. If the confidence level

were adjusted to the 90% level, this variable would be significant, suggesting diet media

coverage in Southern region newspapers does have a negative effect upon per capital









purchases of orange juice. Hypothesis 2 stated, "Demand for orange juice is correlated

with health-and diet-related information in the media." This coefficient result of -0.0004

and corresponding t-statistic of -1.98 indicates that the hypothesis should not be rejected

at the 90% confidence level and that the relationship between purchases of orange juice

and diet media coverage is negative and significant.

The relationship between purchases and the dummy variable representing the

existence of field staff was positively related and significant, resulting in a coefficient of

0.008. This suggests that the existence of field staff who worked with retailers and food

service in promoting Florida orange juice and helped retailers in the area of

merchandising positively and significantly affected purchases of orange juice.

The relationship between purchases and disposable per capital income was

negatively related with a coefficient of -8.435, although insignificant at the 95%

confidence level, which suggests that per capital discretionary income has an effect no

different than zero upon per capital purchases of orange juice in the Southern region.

Finally, the relationship between purchases in the current time period and

purchases from the previous time period, a measurement of habit persistence, were

positive and significant. This result is similar to the relationship between current and

previous purchases in the U.S. demand model, which indicates that purchases of orange

juice are based on habit and consumers in the Southern region who previously purchased

orange juice are more likely to purchase orange juice again than those consumers in the

Southern region who have not previously purchased orange juice.









All seasonal dummy variables in the Southern region analysis were not found to be

significant, as in the U.S. model, nor did all the variables have the same sign as they did

in the U.S. model.

Autocorrelation

As discussed in the previous section, Gujarati (2003) defines autocorrelation as the

correlation between members of a series of observations ordered in time or space and that

the classical linear regression model assumes that such autocorrelation does not exist in

the error terms of the explanatory variables. Again considering the null hypothesis, "no

autocorrelation," the null hypothesis would not be rejected when the probability is greater

than 0.05. For the regional model, the Durbin h probability is 0.4598, which is greater

than 0.05; therefore, the null hypothesis is not rejected, indicating that the model does not

have autocorrelation.

Elasticity at the Means for Southern Region Orange Juice Demand

To determine the price, income, and information elasticities, the mean average of

each variable was calculated. Both values are displayed for each variable in Table 5.5.

Table 5.5: Elasticity at the Mean for Price, Income, and Diet Media Coverage in the
Model for Southern Region Orange Juice Demand.
Elasticity
Price (per gallon) -0.206
Income (per capital) -0.064
Diet media coverage -0.004
The price elasticity for orange juice is -0.21, which indicates that as price per gallon

increases, demand for orange juice decreases. Since the absolute value of the price

elasticity is less than 1.0, price elasticity is inelastic, indicating that price has a relatively

small impact on demand.

The income elasticity is -0.06, which indicates that as per capital discretionary

income increases, per capital purchases decrease. Since the negative, orange juice would










be classified as an inferior good. The income coefficient, however, was insignificant in

the model, which indicates that the effect of income upon purchases of orange juice in the

Southern Region is no different than zero.

The elasticity of diet media coverage is -0.004. This measurement of elasticity

indicates an inverse relationship between diet media coverage and per capital purchase of

orange juice, although the frequency of newspaper articles relating to low-carbohydrate

diets has a relatively small impact on demand.

Southern Region Correlation Analysis

Kennedy (1993) states that high correlation between variables is defined by

correlation coefficients greater than 0.80; the correlation analysis discussion for the

Southern region is with regards to the values displayed in Table 5.6.

Table 5.6: Correlation Coefficient Matrix for Southern Region Orange Juice Demand
Model, significance of each correlation also shown.
Previous
Per r eiuPer Capita
Per Period Per er Capita Field Diet media
Capita Capita Price Discretionary Staff coverage
Puc e Capita I Staff coverage
Purchases Income
Purchases

Per Capita 1.000 0.971 0.217 -0.858 0.842 -0.600
Purchases (
Previous
Period Per 0.971 1.000 0.275 -0.858 0.821 -0.589
Capita (<0.0001) (0.0047) (<0.0001) (<0.0001) (<0.0001)
Purchases

Price 0. 217 0. 275 1.00 -0.503 0.420 -0.334
(0.0260) (0.0047) (<.0001) (<.001) (0.0005)

Per Capita
Discretionary -0. 858 -0.858 -0.503 00 -0.857 0.579
Discretionary 1.00
(<.001) (<0.0001) (<.0001) (<.001) (<.001)
Income

Field Staff 0.842 0.821 0.420 -0.857 1.00 -0.463
(<.001) (<0.0001) (<.001) (<.001) (<.001)

Diet media -0. 600 -0.589 -0.334 0.579 -0.463


I .V


coverage (<.001)


(<0.0001) (0.0005) (<.001)


(<.001)











Given the information displayed in Table 5.6, direct relationships between each of

the explanatory variables and between the explanatory variables and dependent variable

can be determined. Three of the explanatory variables, previous purchases, field staff,

and per capital discretionary income, are highly correlated with the dependent variable

(coefficient greater than 0.80); previous purchases and field staff are positively correlated

and significant and income is negatively correlated and significant. Positively correlated

previous purchases and the dependent variable suggest that habit persistence does exist

for those consumers in the Southern region. Additionally, as field staff or income

increases, per capital purchases of orange juice in the Southern region increase or

decrease, respectively. Although not strongly correlated, the relationship between

Southern region diet media coverage and per capital purchases is negatively correlated,

indicating that as the frequency of newspaper articles increases, purchases of orange juice

within the region decrease. This relationship is also true for the diet media variable and

previous purchases.

It is also important to note that diet media coverage and field staff is negatively

correlated, suggesting that as the field staff was eliminated, diet media coverage in the

Southern region increased. Additionally, income and diet media coverage is positively

correlated, which suggests that consumers with higher income levels are more able to

access diet media coverage, especially that information which is portrayed in regional

newspapers.

Conclusions

The second hypothesis was that demand for orange juice was correlated with

health-and diet-related information in the media. For this study, diet media coverage was









defined by the frequency of newspaper articles topically related to low-carbohydrate diets

and dieting and is represented by the diet media coverage (DC) variable in both models.

This variable was significant in both the U.S. and regional model at the 90% confidence

level and had negative coefficients, indicating that as diet media coverage in national and

regional newspapers related to low-carbohydrate dieting increased, per capital purchases

of orange juice decreased. Therefore, this hypothesis would not be rejected at the 90%

confidence level.

This conclusion is also supported by Figures 5.1, 5.2, and 5.3, which all indicate

that as annual per capital purchases of orange juice decreased, the annual number of

articles relating to low-carbohydrate diets was increasing, both in the U.S. and Southern

region.














CHAPTER 6
SUMMARY, IMPLICATIONS, AND FUTURE RESEARCH

Fruit and fruit juices have generally been accepted by the public and nutritionists as

excellent nutrient sources and important additions to a healthy diet. Culturally, juice and

orange juice in particular have a direct association with breakfast meals. In the United

States, these preferences have come under attack by low-carbohydrate diet proponents

and adherents. Popular diet media coverage about low-carbohydrate diets, specifically

the Atkins' and South Beach diets, has become prevalent through newspapers,

magazines, and diet books.

The researchable question presented in Chapter 1 questioned if and how the cultural

history of dieting in the United States over the past 20 years has affected consumer

demand for orange juice. This served as a basis for two hypotheses, that dieting trends

occur in cycles, such that they follow a cyclical pattern similar to the product life-cycle

theory and that demand for orange juice is correlated with diet media coverage in the

media.

In order to test these two hypotheses, four research objectives were defined. Those

objectives included estimating U.S. consumers demand for orange juice using purchase

data from AC Nielsen, using content analysis to generate quantified measures of low-

carbohydrate diet media coverage, overlaying media coverage data to coincide with the

purchase data time period from October 1996 through December 2004, and finally

modeling consumer demand as a function of a set of independent variables that include

the variable "media coverage."









Summary of Data Collection

To address both hypotheses, purchase data were collected from the Florida

Department of Citrus. Data were also collected from electronic databases representing

the frequency of diet media coverage in national magazines and national and regional

newspapers. Additional data collected from electronic databases and representing weekly

bestseller rankings for popular diet books were also used to address the first hypothesis.

Major Findings

Hypothesis 1

In addressing the first hypothesis, the product life cycle theory was applied to the

frequency of diet media coverage in national magazines and national and regional

newspapers and magazines. The product life cycle theory was also applied to bestseller

rankings of popular diet books. The product life cycle consists of four phases:

introduction, growth, maturity, and decline. For the purposes of this study, theses phases

were defined with regards to the frequency of diet media articles printed each four-week

period.

Of all media articles collected, 386 were collected from national newspaper sources

and the highest concentrations of newspaper articles were printed from November 2002

through December 2004. An additional 58 articles were collected from national

magazine sources and the highest concentrations of those articles occurred from

November 2002-December 2004. Since magazine articles are printed on a monthly to

bimonthly basis, it is not surprising to note that an average of only 0.48 diet articles was

printed each four-week period. Additionally, the two four-week periods corresponding

with the highest frequency of collected articles occurred during July and August 2004,









five months later than the two four-week periods corresponding with the highest

frequency of national newspapers articles.

For the Southern region analysis, 223 articles were collected from regional

newspapers. The highest concentrations of collected articles were printed from

November 2002 through December 2004 and the two four-week periods in which the

highest frequencies of regional newspaper articles were printed occurred during January

and February 2004, the same eight week period as discovered in the national newspaper

analysis.

The frequency of articles collected from Southern region newspapers also appears

to follow a cycle which may reflect dieting trends, although some distinct differences

between the national and regional newspaper analysis include:

* The introduction phase occurred from October 1995 through August 2003 and was
21 periods longer than the introduction phase for national newspaper articles,

* The growth phase occurred from March 2003 through December 2004, and
represented a growth phase shorter in duration than the growth phase for diet media
coverage collected from national newspaper articles. This phase did terminate
during the same four-week period (December 2004) for both national and regional
newspapers, and

* The maturity phase occurred from January and September 2004 and concluded two
months later than the maturity phase for national newspaper articles.

In addition, the graphic analysis presented in Chapter 4 did appear to indicate that

diet life cycles are reflected in the frequency of national and regional newspaper and

magazine articles. Whether this confirms that a diet life cycle exists is questionable, it

yet does provide some insight as to the possibility that diet trends may occur in cycles

and may be reflected by the frequency of diet media coverage portrayed in national

newspapers and magazines.









In addition to diet media coverage found in newspapers and magazines, consumers

may also access dieting information by reading popular books about diets and dieting.

The popularity of two diet books, A kin% 'New Diet Revolution and The S.i,,,h Beach Diet

were used as a proxy to identify the popularity of the low-carbohydrate dieting trend.

Using bestseller rankings published by Publishers Weekly, it was determined that the

popularity of the Atkins' diet book occurred from 1996 through 2003. This widespread

popularity of the Atkins book began nearly four years after the book was published and

appeared to be bimodal, with popularity of the book riding and falling twice over the

eight-year period. The .,nuhl Beach Diet book, however, was published in April 2003

and immediately appeared on the Publisher's Weekly bestseller list, with popularity of

the book continuing through December 2004. It is important to note that both books were

popular from April through December 2003 and it is inconclusive as to which book had

the greatest impact on encouraging the popularity of low-carbohydrate dieting.

Considering the research by Sornette, et al (2004) on how books ascend bestseller

lists, it is important to note the time differences in which each book, Atkins' and South

Beach, ascended the Publisher's Weekly bestseller lists. As previously indicated, the

Atkins' diet book was published in July 1992 and did not appear on the Publishers'

Weekly bestseller list until April 1996, nearly four years after being published. This is in

comparison to the immediate appearance of The .'i,,lh Beach Diet book, which was

published in April 2003 and first appeared on the Publishers' Weekly bestseller list

during the same month. Sornette et all suggested that books, whose popularity is due to

endogenouss shocks" or recommendations by friends and family, will ascended bestseller

lists at a slow rate (i.e. Atkins New Diet Revolution). Their research also suggests that









books, whose popularity is due to "exogenous shocks" such as a celebrity endorsement,

will rise and decline more abruptly on bestseller lists (i.e. The .S,nit Beach Diet).

Horovitz (2004) noted that The .,,ilih Beach Diet was endorsed by celebrities such as

Bette Midler, Nicole Kidman and former President Bill Clinton, which would qualify for

those exogenous shocks.

Given the observed trends representing book popularity and the frequency of

newspaper and magazine articles, it does appear that diet media coverage about a diet

trend does follow some pattern, but as to whether this pattern defines the popularity of a

diet is inconclusive. Also, it is uncertain as to what degree such diet media coverage

impacts the popularity of a diet or what types of diet media coverage have the greatest

impact upon diet popularity. Therefore, the first hypothesis should not be rejected based

upon the inconclusiveness of the results. Such inconclusiveness is due in part to the

absence of weekly bestseller rankings (due to the limited number of books listed on

bestseller lists) throughout the data set and the absence of newspaper and magazine

articles during some four-week periods, which may have resulted in part to the time

period length selected for the study. Therefore, to better address the first hypothesis, a

further analysis of additional newspaper and magazine sources or other sources of diet

media coverage would need to be conducted to determine if other or additional diet media

coverage sources better define the life cycle of a diet.

Hypothesis 2

The second hypothesis addressed the relationship between consumer demand for

orange juice and diet media coverage. This research found that orange juice purchases

and diet media coverage are negatively related, as found with the correlation analysis.

This result was further confirmed during the regression analysis which indicated the









presence of a statistically significant and negative effect of newspaper articles upon per

capital purchases of orange juice in both the U.S. and for the Southern region.

Additionally, the elasticity of diet media coverage in both models was found to be

negative, although inelastic. These results suggest that as diet media coverage relating to

low-carbohydrate diets and dieting in national and Southern region newspapers increased,

per capital purchases of orange juice decreased, although the impact upon demand was

relatively small.

Other results in the U.S. model of consumer demand for orange juice included

the negative and significant relationship between purchases and price, and the significant

and positive relationships between purchases and the dummy variable representing the

existence of field staff, purchases and disposable per capital income, purchases and

purchases from the previous time period (lagged one period). For the Southern region

model, negative and statistically significant relationships between purchases and price

and purchases and disposable income were identified, as were significant and positive

relationships between purchases and the existence of field staff and purchases and

purchases from the previous time period.

Since graphical analysis, estimations of correlation coefficients and the regression

analyses (U.S. and Southern region) all provide similar evidence that diet media coverage

and consumer demand are negatively correlated, the second hypothesis should not be

rejected.

Research Implications

This study has examined the effect that the cultural history of dieting has had upon

purchases for orange juice in the United States and the Southern region and highlighted

three major issues.









The first issue which should be addresses is whether or not diet trends impact

agricultural industries. This research indicated that diet media coverage is a statistically

significant explanatory variable when modeling U.S. orange juice demand. This provides

some indirect evidence that media coverage may affect dieting trends since the demand

for food products that are affected by those dieting trends will also change. The

challenges which accompany these shifts in consumer perceptions and therefore demand

have the potential to affect industries throughout the agriculture sector. By understanding

the effect that diet media coverage, such as newspaper, magazine articles, and books

about dieting has had upon demand for orange juice, a better understanding can be

obtained and applied to other affected industries by current and future dieting trends.

Because obesity has become an even greater concern for Americans, the popularity

of diets and dieting is likely to increase as will the potential for dieting trends to affect

purchasing decisions and eating habits. Diets and dieting will continue to be an on-going

issue of interest within the agriculture sector, although the industries affected by a dieting

trend may change as diet trends rise and fall in popularity. Understanding how

information about dieting trends is accessed and applied by consumers will help aid

negatively affected agricultural industries in dealing with demand impacts of dieting

trends. As consumers turn towards more popular sources of dieting information, such as

television, internet, newspapers, and magazines, agricultural industries will also have to

adjust marketing strategies and alliances to better communicate with consumers.

Although the effect that a dieting trend may have upon a particular industry may

not be prevented, it is possible that the findings from this study can help diminish this

effect. For example, industries may determine that rather than investing time and money