Group Title: temporal dimension of Jungs̓ psychological typology
Title: The Temporal dimension of Jungs' psychological typology
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Title: The Temporal dimension of Jungs' psychological typology testing an instructional theory of future studies with middle school students
Physical Description: vi, 142 leaves : ill. ; 28 cm.
Language: English
Creator: Harrison, David F., 1948-
Publication Date: 1984
Copyright Date: 1984
 Subjects
Subject: Time -- Psychological aspects   ( lcsh )
Forecasting -- Study and teaching (Secondary)   ( lcsh )
Curriculum and Instruction thesis Ph. D
Dissertations, Academic -- Curriculum and Instruction -- UF
Genre: bibliography   ( marcgt )
non-fiction   ( marcgt )
 Notes
Thesis: Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Florida, 1984.
Bibliography: Bibliography: leaves 135-141.
General Note: Typescript.
General Note: Vita.
Statement of Responsibility: by David F. Harrison.
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Bibliographic ID: UF00099588
Volume ID: VID00001
Source Institution: University of Florida
Holding Location: University of Florida
Rights Management: All rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier: alephbibnum - 000473825
oclc - 11698319
notis - ACN9034

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THE TEMPORAL DIMENSION OF JUNG'S PSYCHOLOGICAL TYPOLOGY:
TESTING AN INSTRUCTIONAL THEORY OF FUTURE STUDIES
WITH MIDDLE SCHOOL STUDENTS










By

DAVID F. HARRISON


A DISSERTATION PRESENTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL
OF THE UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA IN
PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS
FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY


UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA














































Copyright 1984

by

David F. Harrison













TABLE OF CONTENTS


PAGE

ABSTRACT......................................................... v

CHAPTER

ONE THE PROSPECTUS......................................... 1

Introduction........................................... 1
Problem Background...................................... 2
Problem Statement....................................... 3
Purpose of the Study.................................... 1B
Plan of the Study...................................... 19
Hypotheses.............................................. 24
Limitations............................................ 25

TWO THE REVIEW OF LITERATURE............................... 27

Introduction ........................................... 27
Future Studies......................................... 28
Rationale for Future Studies in Education............ 28
The Role of Future Images............................ 30
A Future Studies Taxonomy............................ 34
Components of a Futures Perspective.................. 38
Assessment Parameters and Methodologies................ 41
Studies Relating Time-Oriented Images
to Psychological Type................................ 47
The Use of Jungian Typology and the MBTI in Education.. 57

THREE DESIGN AND PROCEDURES.................................. 71

Site and Population.................................... 71
Instrumentation......................................... 71
Psychological Type Measurement....................... 71
Reliability........................................ 72
Validity........................................... 74
Temporal Extension................................... 75
Data Collection ........................................ 76
Design and Analyses.................................... 80









FOUR RESULTS................................................ 88

Preliminary Considerations............................ 88
Sex, Age and Race Composition: Introduction......... 88
Sex, Age and Race Composition: Display of Data...... 88
Sex, Age and Race Composition: Summary of Results... 93
Psychological Type Distribution Comparisons:
Introduction ....................................... 94
Psychological Type Distribution Comparisons:
Display of Data .................................... 95
Psychological Type Distribution Comparisons:
Summary of Results................................. 98
Hypothesis One ......................................... 99
Hypothesis One: Introduction........................ 99
Hypothesis One: Display of Data..................... 99
Hypothesis One: Summary of Results.................. 103
Hypothesis Two:........................................ 103
Hypothesis Two: Introduction........................ 103
Hypothesis Two: Display of Data..................... 103
Hypothesis Two: Summary of Results................... 118

FIVE DISCUSSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS......................... 120

Discussion.............................................. 120
Recommendations......................................... 126

APPENDIX

A DIRECTIONS FOR WRITING SCENARIOS....................... 131
B BASE SAMPLE GROUPS USED IN PSYCHOLOGICAL TYPE
DISTRIBUTION COMPARISONS............................. 132
C CHI-SQUARE TEST AND FISHER'S EXACT PROBABILITY TEST
VALUES AND PROBABILITIES FOR PSYCHOLOGICAL TYPE
DISTRIBUTION COMPARISONS............................. 133
D TUKEY'S HSD TEST RESULTS............................... 134

LIST OF REFERENCES................................................ 135

BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH............................................... 142














Abstract of Dissertation Presented to the Graduate
School of the University of Florida in Partial
Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree
of Doctor of Philosophy


THE TEMPORAL DIMENSION OF JUNG'S
PSYCHOLOGICAL TYPOLOGY: TESTING AN INSTRUCTIONAL
THEORY OF FUTURE STUDIES WITH
MIDDLE SCHOOL STUDENTS

By

David F. Harrison

August, 1984


Chairman: Gordon D. Lawrence
Major Department: Curriculum and Instruction

Drawing upon Carl Jung's theory of psychological type, authors

Mann, Siegler and Osmond have formulated a systematic way of conceptualizing

individual variations in time orientation. Specifically, different

temporal orientations were assigned to the basic functions contained

in Jung's typology: sensing as oriented to the present; intuition as

oriented to the future; thinking as linear in orientation (an equal

distribution between past, present and future); and feeling as oriented

to the past. If valid, this theory has significance for Future

Studies, an academic discipline whose main goal is to promote the

envisioning of future events or conditions. Given the disproportionately

few individuals in the general population who are predominantly

intuitive, the forward-focusing nature of Future Studies may constitute









a conceptual problem for many students encountering this segment of

the curriculum.

Procedures required middle school students from ten classrooms

(N=302) to produce written scenarios projecting personalized images of

the future. Each story, when rated on the dimension of temporal

extension, was related to the psychological type of its creator

(obtained through an administration of the The Myers-Briggs Type

Indicator). Preceding the writing assignment, however, five of these

classrooms were randomly selected for exposure to an instructional

treatment consisting of Future Studies activities modified by the

researcher to accommodate the learning preferences of persons who are

not predominantly intuitive. Such an arrangement allowed for testing

(1) the proposed relationship between time orientation and Jung's

typology and (2) the degree to which the educational intervention

assisted students of differing psychological types to extend their

temporal perspectives into the future.

The most dramatic difference in future-orientation in a singular

type dimension arose in the sensing-intuition dichotomy, where the

average number of years projected in the stories of intuitive subjects

was more than double that of sensing subjects. Other time-type

relationships were less conclusive. Further analysis revealed that

subjects from each type category in the experimental program of

instruction composed scenarios which projected significantly longer

(.001) mean time spans than the stories of subjects who were of the

same type but received no prior instructional exposure.













CHAPTER ONE
THE PROSPECTUS


Introduction


Though the need to nourish student appreciation and understanding

of the future receives ample credence in the literature, little

evidence exists to support the notion that instructional theory has

been appropriately employed by practitioners to design educational

experiences which accomplish these goals. Educators who promote

Future Studies in the schools generally make the assumption that all

students can benefit equally from an opportunity to analyze trends and

speculate about the future.

However, an important portion of the research concerned with

characterizing human temporal orientation suggests that a significant

and consistent difference does exist between the ways in which individuals

view time. Drawing upon Carl G. Jung's theory of psychological type

(1923), authors Mann, Siegler and Osmond (1968, 1971, 1972) have

formulated a systematic way of conceptualizing individual variations

in time orientation that can be taken as a set of hypotheses to be

tested. Are some students naturally interested in speculating about

the future while other students are not? If so, and assuming that

Future Studies is an important curriculum component, is there an

effective way of organizing instruction so that the activities of









Future Studies will engage the dynamic interest of all or most students?

These questions represent the problem area of the dissertation.

Responding to the questions posed, the major objectives of this

research effort are (1) the execution of an experiment which examines

the relationship between time orientation and Jungian type characteristics

as proposed by Mann, Siegler and Osmond and (2) the development of an

organized set of educational activities in the realm of Future Studies

which utilizes information about Jung's psychological types (and their

corresponding temporal perspectives). This instructional intervention

is assessed for its comparative impact upon the personal future images

of experimental subjects as revealed in the completion of a projective

writing exercise.



Problem Background


Since the advent of industrialism, a growing number of educational

scholars have advocated programatic efforts which prepare students for

a life permeated by profoundly changing social conditions and the

increased complexities which accompany such changes. As a result of

this attention, a specialization (or sub-field) within education has

emerged whose prime directive is to combat the debilitating symptoms

of rapid change among students by assisting them to envision and

contemplate the future.

Citing no clear consensus among professionals regarding nomenclature

for this relatively new portion of the field, Glines (1981) notes that

the terms Futures, Futuristics, Futurology and Future Studies have all









been employed in the literature to describe various approaches to

learning which include a future-focusing dimension. During the

description of this study, however, the term Future Studies is used

exclusively and is defined as . the content and activities in an

educational curriculum specifically concerned with preparing students

for the future" (Law, 1979, p. 20). Thus, as an introductory foreword,

readers should note that the research described in this document takes

place within the global arena of Future Studies.

The expanding emphasis on the future in education during the

1970s was accompanied by a proliferation of related services and

resources. A survey by Naisbitt (1982) found that the number of

Future Studies programs among universities increased from only a few

in 1969 to over 45 by 1978. Correspondingly, the membership of the

World Future Society expanded from approximately 21,000 in 1976 to

over 41,000 in 1978 (Fletcher, 1979) while the number of . .

popular and professional periodicals devoted to understanding or

studying the future . grew from only 12 in 1965 to over 120 by

1978 (Naisbitt, 1982, p. 18).



Problem Statement


The initial growth of Future Studies led early proponents of this

educational specialization to formulate optimistic projections for

continued growth. However, the validity of this assured posture has

recently been challenged by a thorough and insightful analysis of the

emerging body of literature devoted to the formal study of the future.









As editor of a publication which reviews important literary efforts in

Future Studies, Marien (1982) contends that the progress of this

subfield became somewhat stagnant towards the end of the 1970s and

currently continues to decline in status. Among other developments,

the diminishing number of entries related to Future Studies listed in

The Education Index by the early 1980s is cited to support this

claim. In addition, the large majority of Future Studies-oriented

publications within education are criticized by Marien for not being

"core journals" which feature rigorous research (p. 14).

This need for more substantial research support for the study of

the future has also been recognized by other authors. Polak (1973)

notes "The relationship between conceptions of the time-dimension

. . has been neglected and offers a fruitful field for research"

(p. 10). Future Studies proponent Gary Wooddell (1980) also comments

on the scarcity of rigorous research on the topic by noting a passage

by John McHale. "Important, but comparatively neglected, areas of

futures thinking include the psycho-symbolic aspects of the future--the

ways in which viable images of the future . are previsioned"

(1969, p. 15).

Within the context of this research study, the psychological

typology of Carl G. Jung (1923) provides theoretical guidance for the

area of Future Studies. When discussing the meaning of Jung's psychological

constructs, Myers (1962) notes that "The gist of the theory is that

much apparently random variation in human behavior is actually quite

orderly and consistent, being due to certain basic differences in the

way people prefer to use perception and judgment" (p. 1).









The Jungian classification system for differentiating psychological

types, as later advanced by Isabel Myers (1980), contends that individuals

normally experience the world through the employment of four basic

mental processes; sensing, intuition, thinking and feeling. A brief

description of the differential skills and attitudes associated with

these four fundamental processes (also called modes or functions)

was portrayed by Lawrence (1979) as follows:

Sensing-- . expertise in sensing can lead to a differentiated
awareness of present experience, acute powers of observation, a
memory for facts and detail, and a capacity for realism, for
seeing the world as it is. Attitudes characteristically developed
as a preference for sensing include a reliance on experience
rather than on theory, a trust of the conventional and customary
way of doing things, a preference for beginning with what is known
and real, and moving systematically and step-by-step, tying each
new fact to past experience and testing it for its relevance
in practical use. (p. 6)

Intuition-- . development of intuition can lead to insight into
complexity, an ability to see abstract, symbolic and theoretical
relationships, and a capacity to see future possibilities, often
creative ones. Attitudes characteristically developed as a result
of a preference for intuition include a reliance on inspiration
more than past experience, an interest in the new and untried, and
a preference for learning new materials through an intuitive grasp
of the meanings and relationships. (p. 6)

Thinking-- . expertise in thinking leads to powers of analysis
and an ability to weight facts objectively including consequences,
unintended as well as intended. Attitudes typically developed
from a preference for thinking include objectivity, impartiality,
a sense of fairness and justice, and skill in applying logical
analysis. (p. 7)

Feeling-- . feeling leads to development of values and standards,
and a knowledge of what matters most to themselves and other
people. Attitudes typically resulting from a preference for
feeling include an understanding of people and a wish to affiliate
with them, a desire for harmony, and a capacity for warmth, empathy
and compassion. (p. 7)









In this scheme, sensation and intuition are one set of contrasting

modes, while thinking and feeling are another. Preference for one of

each pair presumes a corresponding lesser preference for its opposite.

The preferred functions are better developed, and the lesser ones are

relatively weaker and underdeveloped. Although everyone possesses a

capacity to use all four functions, they are not employed equally well

within any given individual. The TF preference (thinking or feeling)

is functionally independent of the SN preference (sensing or intuition).

In addition, either TF preference can affiliate with either SN preference.

As a result, four possible combinations occur which are shown in FIGURE 1-1:


ST SENSING AND THINKING

SF SENSING AND FEELING

NF INTUITION AND FEELING

NT INTUITION AND THINKING


FIGURE 1-1
PSYCHOLOGICAL TYPE FUNCTION COMBINATIONS


A third set of opposing preferences is represented by the extraversion-

introversion dichotomy. When these two complementary orientations to

life are compared, introversion (I) focuses on the inner world of

concepts and ideas while extraversion (E) is primarily concerned with

the outer world of people and things. As noted by Myers, "Well-developed

introverts can deal ably with the world around them when necessary, but

they do their best work inside their heads, in reflection. Similarly,

well-developed extraverts can deal effectively with ideas, but they do

their best work externally, in action" (1980, p. 8 & 9).








The final set of contrasting preferences is reflected in the

choice between judgment (J) and perception (P). This pair of attitudes

represents opposing methods for dealing with the external world.

In order to come to a conclusion, people use the judging attitude
and have to shut off perception for the time being. All the
evidence is in, and anything more is irrelevant and immaterial.
Conversely, in the perceptive attitude people shut off judgment.
Not all the evidence is in; new developments will occur. (Myers,
1980, p. 9)

When all four preference pairs interact, the result is sixteen

possible combinations, each of which describes a different psychological

type occurring within the population. These psychological type categories

are shown in FIGURE 1-2.


SENSING TYPES INTUITIVES

THINKING FEELING FEELING THINKING

-ST- -SF- -NF- -NT-

T I--J ISTJ ISFJ INFJ INTJ
INTROVERT (----------------
S I--P ISTP ISFP INFP INTP

SE--P ESTP ESFP ENFP ENTP
EXTRAVERT _-----
E--J ESTJ ESFJ ENFJ ENTJ


FIGURE 1-2
PSYCHOLOGICAL TYPE CATEGORIES


Although this configuration appears complicated, Myers (1980) contends

that "Sixteen would be an unwieldy number to keep in mind if the types

were arbitrary, unrelated categories, but each is the logical result of

its own preferences and is closely related to other types that share

some of those preferences" (p. 21 & 22).









Since the establishment of a one hundred and sixty-six item,

forced choice, self-report instrument entitled The Myers-Briggs Type

Indicator (1962), Jungian typology has been used extensively as a

means to classify and study observable differences in psychological

makeup. The conceptual development most germane to this study,

however, was originated in studies by Mann, Siegler and Osmond (1968,

1971, 1972) and postulates an important link between temporal perspective

and the psychological typology of Jung.

The contentions of Mann, Siegler and Osmond, allege that Jung's

system lacks sufficient "explanatory value" because it does not

consider "man's tempero-spatial nature" (1968, p.34). In an attempt

to contribute to the theoretical foundation of Jungian typology, these

authors have assigned different temporal orientations to the basic

dimensions contained in the classification scheme. Briefly, the

temporal orientations proposed which correspond to the basic Jungian

psychological modes are displayed in FIGURE 1-3.



PSYCHOLOGICAL FUNCTION TEMPORAL ORIENTATION

SENSING PRESENT (PREDOMINANT)

INTUITION FUTURE (PREDOMINANT)

THINKING PAST-PRESENT-FUTURE (LINEAR)

FEELING PAST (PREDOMINANT)


FIGURE 1-3
PSYCHOLOGICAL TYPE FUNCTIONS AND
THEIR CORRESPONDING TEMPORAL ORIENTATIONS









The predominant temporal focus of sensation types is the present.

Responding primarily to environmental stimuli which are current and

immediate, reality through sensation consists of the event or object

being experienced at the moment. Rather than developing a multi-

dimensional temporal flow, those who rely upon sensation tend to

exclude past and future considerations so the present may be experienced

to the highest degree. As characterized by Mann, Siegler and Osmond,

for this type . life is a happening; where it comes from and

where it is going is of minor importance. That it exists, and can be

perceived, is paramount" (1971, p. 162).

As the function concerned mainly with the future, intuition

employs mental imagery to create a vision of the potential for further

development inherent in objects or events. When exercising this type

function, individuals tend to value that which will happen more than

that which is happening. From this perspective, intuitive persons

characteristically focus their talents on determining the range of

possibilities which any given circumstances represent. As described

by the authors . for intuitives, it is precisely the future

which is first perceived, and, to get the current moment, the intuitive

goes backward from the vision of the future into the other, lesser

reality of the present" (1971, p. 169).

According to the authors' theory, thinking types exercise a

linear perspective of time in which no single temporal dimension is of

central importance. The critical concern for individuals of this type

is the continuity of time and how new experiences fit into that









temporal flow. A new event has meaning primarily when the relationship

of that occurrence to a larger process is distinguished. Regarding

this desire to establish a historical order for experiences, Mann,

Siegler and Osmond suggest that the understanding of thinking types

" . is directly proportional to the scope of past, present and

future that can be glimpsed in any set of events . (1971,

p. 156).

Since the past is predominant for the feeling type, time becomes

meaningful only when related to previous experience. Continuity in

life is achieved by interpreting new situations in terms of their

similarities with events in the past, rather than with a propensity to

note inherently original dimensions or characteristics. As reported

by the authors, feeling types often respond to unaccustomed experiences

by saying "Oh, yes, this reminds me of . since they . do

not see the new as being novel, unique, emergent, but attempt, often

successfully, to relate it to the known and familiar" (1971, p. 149).

As stated earlier, this relationship between time perspective and

psychological function was devised to supplement the ability of

Jungian type theory to explain the differing experiential worlds of

individuals. The value of such a theoretical connection is cited by

Smith (1976), who wrote that "The particular insight of the work of

Mann, Siegler and Osmond is that an individual's decision is not based

solely on the type of information he receives. It is also based upon

the individual's perceptual set concerning time itself, which is in

turn a function of personality" (p. 15).

However, when this theoretical development is applied to Future

Studies, further implications emerge. Perhaps most notable is the









implication that persons who function primarily through intuition have

a distinct advantage over other types when attempting to contemplate

the future. Intuition, by its very nature, appears ideally suited to

this academic discipline whose main goal is to promote the envisioning

of future events or conditions.

Along similar lines, those individuals who are not predisposed to

easily engage their intuitive capacities may encounter substantial

difficulty when considering the future. This may be especially true

for feeling (past-predominant) and sensing (present-predominant)

types, while perhaps less valid for those relying chiefly on the

thinking (linear) mode. Yet, when examining such presumptions, one

must remember that these psychological functions typically work in

concert within the individual. Thus, the manner in which these

type-related time perspectives interact when combined in pairs (as the

Jungian model requires) calls for illumination.

Briefly, according to Jungian theory, the nature of interaction

among the pairs of type functions (ST, SF, NF, NT) is determined by

the existence of a dominant and an auxiliary process. Rather than

using both modes equally, priority is given to one of the functions

(the dominant) over the other (the auxiliary) so that a consistent

method of approaching life can be attained. As stated by Myers,

. one process--sensing, intuition, thinking or feeling--must

have clear sovereignty, with opportunity to reach its full development,

if a person is to be really effective" (1980, p. 12).

The designation of the dominant and auxiliary functions among

each of the sixteen psychological types is dependent upon the differing










combinations of preferences which interact. This pattern of influence

is depicted by FIGURE 1-4 in which both the dominant function and

corresponding dominant temporal perspective are underlined for each

psychological type.


ISTJ ISF3 INFJ INTJ

3 Present Present Future Future
and and and and
Linear Past Past Linear


ISTP ISFP INFP INTP

I p Present Present Future Future
-and and and and
Linear Past Past Linear


ESTP ESFP ENFP ENTP

E P Present Present Future Future
and and and and
Linear Past Past Linear


ESTJ ESFJ ENFJ ENT3

E 3 Present Present Future Future
and and and and
Linear Past Past Linear


FIGURE 1-4
DOMINANT PSYCHOLOGICAL TYPE


FUNCTIONS AND


THEIR CORRESPONDING DOMINANT TEMPORAL ORIENTATIONS






As displayed in the preceding figure, each of the temporal perspectives

is dominant in four of the sixteen psychological types while playing an

auxiliary role in an additional four. When adapting this information









to the concerns of education, one might expect that portion of the

student population which possesses a future-oriented temporal perspective

(in either a dominant or auxiliary capacity) to excel in the activities

of Future Studies. Conversely, those students of other temporal

dominance may experience varying degrees of internal dissonance and

resultant failures in this discipline.

Following these suppositions, a hypothetical hierarchy has been

devised which predicts the performance of varying psychological types

when engaging a future-oriented perspective. This ranking can be seen

in FIGURE 1-5.

In this scheme, intuition is expected to contribute most

significantly to the successful engagement of a future-oriented

perspective since the consideration of possibilities inherent within

events or conditions is the strength of persons adept at this function.

As a result, psychological types with an N component are awarded the

highest rankings; first in a dominant, then in an auxiliary role.

Similarly, the intuitive-related designations are followed by the

psychological types which employ thinking (linear temporal perspective)

in both dominant and auxiliary capacities. The ordering concludes

with those psychological types which feature the sensing function in

the dominant and auxiliary positions, representing individuals who

characteristically exercise an accommodation to the present. In

addition, due to the inherently abstract nature of envisioning the

future, introversion (I) has been given priority over extraversion (E)

where similar temporal functions combine since introversion deals

primarily with the world of concepts and ideas.






14









a b c d
TIME REFERENCE TYPE % RANK



INTJ 2.6 1
FUTURE & LINEAR
ENTP 4.9 2

INFJ 1.8 3
FUTURE & PAST
ENFP 7.6 4

INTP 3.5 5
FUTURE & LINEAR
ENTJ 3.9 6

INFP 3.9 7
FUTURE & PAST
ENFJ 3.6 8

ISTP 4.2 9
PRESENT & LINEAR
ESTJ 15.0 10

ISTJ 6.9 11
PRESENT & LINEAR
ESTP 6.5 12

ISFJ 6.8 13
PRESENT & PAST
ESFP 9.4 14

ISFP 5.4 15
PRESENT & PAST EJ 10
ESFJ 14.0 16


a
Dominant time reference underlined.
b
Dominant type function underlined.
c
Percentage of general population (rounded the nearest tenth); N = 9,320
high school students.
d
Ranked highest to lowest in expected ability to engage a future-oriented
perspective.





FIGURE 1-5
PSYCHOLOGICAL TYPE--TEMPORAL ORIENTATION
HIERARCHY









This hierarchy of expected abilities is extremely critical,

especially when one considers that the functional preference for

exercising the four basic modes of experiencing the world is not

evenly distributed throughout the general population. As revealed in

FIGURE 1-5, McCaulley (1978) has shown that future-dominant types in a

large high school sample were disproportionately few when compared to

the number of persons representing each of the other temporal perspectives.

In light of these proportions, the time orientation characteristics

which Mann, Siegler and Osmond have attributed to the Jungian typology

are important considerations for Future Studies proponents. Specifically,

a conclusion drawn from these data asserts that the study of the

future constitutes a foreign and arduous assignment for those students

whose experiential worlds are anchored in the past and/or present. In

terms of the Jungian model, contemplating the future through intuition

may be an inherent propensity shared by NT and NF persons, yet students

operating within these self-worlds compose a minority of the classroom

population. Conversely, those students relying primarily on sensing,

thinking or feeling functions (the majority population in the typical

classroom) appear less able to engage their intuitive capacities

for the purpose of projecting mental images into the future. From

this perspective, the unique, forward-focusing nature of Future

Studies may represent a substantial conceptual problem for many, if

not most, of the students encountering this academic discipline.

This differential aptitude for conceptually invoking images of the

future has been documented by Kauffman (1976a) in his book of instructional

considerations for teachers of Future Studies.









There is one further form of 'futurizing' the classroom that is
much harder to describe concretely. It has to do with psychological
atmosphere and with attitudes toward change and toward the
future. Some students will have a 'gee-whiz' enthusiasm and . .
will simply delight in the roller-coaster thrill of novelty and
the rapidity of change. On the other hand, some of your students
will be deathly afraid of the future. To them it is the dark,
scary unknown. (p. 38)

Within the parameters of this research effort, an interpretation

of these passages by Kauffman vividly describes predictably different

attitudes about the future contained within the spectrum of psychological

types.

Unfortunately, this recognition of individual differences is not

yet adequately reflected in the educational practices which comprise

the methodology of Future Studies. Resulting primarily from the lack

of a developmental image, the majority of instructional strategies in

the Future Studies domain appear to exhibit little sensitivity to

crucial, time-oriented individual differences between students. This

restricted application of teaching methodologies was noted in a

passage by Rojas (1972). "Doubtless the majority of academic futurists

today could be considered traditional in their classroom approach

. . (p. 103). Furthermore, the author conducted a personal survey

of Future Studies courses and found that . most learning relied

upon well tried methods. Lectures, discussions, tests and writing

assignments predominated" (p. 103).

The same contention is supported by Lewis and Harrison (1980) who

conducted an informal but extensive review of instructional activities

described in the literature of Future Studies. Most frequently,

teaching strategies in this domain were found to accommodate only that









portion of the student population which possesses an inherent propensity

for intuition and/or thinking. Consequently, the exclusive nature of

many Future Studies methodologies may prohibit a majority of students

from achieving a desirable level of success and fulfillment when

engaged in this discipline.



Purpose of the Study


An important new, time-related dimension of Jung's psychological

typology has been proposed by Mann, Siegler and Osmond (1968, 1971,

1972) which demonstrates an encouraging potential for bolstering the

scope of this classification system. However, though potentially

promising, this theoretical supposition has yet to be empirically

substantiated. Accordingly, the initial objective of this research

study entails the execution of an experiment which appraises the

relationship between elements of temporal perspective and the

psychological typology of Jung.

In a general sense, this project involves an examination of the

correlation between the Jungian psychological types of middle school

students and the relative time perspectives of those students as

measured by the scored performance of a projective writing exercise.

Specifically, this arrangement tests the supposition that subjects

identified by psychological type experience time in consistently

different ways.

Another important avenue for formal inquiry lies in the application

of the newly theorized time dimensions of basic Jungian psychological









types to the instructional methodology of Future Studies. Though the

development of the MBTI has allowed the typology of Jung to be successfully

employed in a variety of educational settings, the information regarding

time perspective proposed by Mann, Siegler and Osmond has not yet been

utilized for the specific task of teaching about the future. However,

the potential value gained by such an application appears substantial.

A study which demonstrates that the ability of students to envision

the future may benefit from an exposure to appropriately designed and

organized educational strategies would provide needed support to the

theoretical foundation of Future Studies. The second and subsequent

goal of this research effort, therefore, is the evaluation of a

series of future-oriented educational experiences that aims to assist

students of all psychological types to better engage their intuitive

and thinking capacities in the creation of future-oriented images.



Plan of the Study


A common forecasting technique known as scenario writing is the

future-oriented exercise employed in this research as a means of

exposing measurable differences between temporal perspectives. Used

extensively in Future Studies, the scenario has been similarly defined

as . a description of a sequence of events that might possibly

occur in the future . (World Future Society, 1979, p. 653) and

S. . a well thought-out story about how a possible future state of

affairs might occur" (Sage and Chobot, 1974, p. 161).









When using the scenario-writing technique for instructional

purposes, Lemmond (1981) notes that the method can be educationally

utilized in both individual and group formats. Letters, plays,

newspaper articles and speeches are all cited as narrative vehicles

through which a scenario may be generated by a single student, while

debates, plays, slide-tape shows and film scripts are labeled as forms

of scenario-writing which can employ group collaboration. However, as

in the case of this research project, scenarios usually take the form

of written short stories which provide . a way of giving substance

to forecasts of the future . (Sage and Chabot, 1974, p. 168).

Advantages of the scenario as an aid to future-oriented thinking

have been identified by Kahn and Wiener (1967) and include (1) multiple

aspects of projected events can be integrated and considered simultaneously;

(2) developments and consequences are portrayed in a specific and

concrete manner not afforded through more abstract considerations; (3)

results take the form of "named possibilities" which can be used as a

context for discussion or further exploration.

Along similar lines, Joseph (1974) characterizes scenarios as

being particularly useful for (1) speculating on alternative futures;

(2) investigating and discussing trade-offs between alternatives;

(3) advocating specific futures; (4) communicating possible futures in

terms that are easily understandable by nonexperts; (5) humanizing

forecasts by making them more realistic to the individual.

As a formal, future-forecasting tool, the scenario method has

been cited for a number of shortcomings. Critics of the scenario









technique claim its deficiencies stem from a reliance upon singular

perspectives and subjective plausibility as well as . a dependence

on the capability of individual storytellers . (Weaver, 1972,

p. 30). Also, futurists in technical and scientific professions

frequently depend upon the ultimate accuracy of forecasting efforts to

assist in decision-making and consequently fault the scenario procedure

for lacking sufficient predictive power.

Contrary to these objections, the problems associated with the

scenario method which confront forecasters in fields other than social

science may not emerge when this narrative-producing technique is

adapted to the classroom. Rather, the abilities to expose individual

perspectives and storytelling capacities (when focused on the future)

are precisely the attributes which enable scenarios to act as an

effective means of measuring and evaluating time perspectives in this

research study.

Similarly, the noted weaknesses of scenarios may not be of

critical importance to this research project since precise accuracy

and highly-validated probabilities are not always the major considerations

of projective mechanisms when employed in an instructional context.

From this perspective, scenarios in education are used primarily as

vehicles for expression which require no strict longitudinal precision.

As reported by Sage and Chobot (1974)

Even if one agrees with those who feel that a scenario must
be based in the real and plausible present, the criticism is
tempered by the fact that scenarios make no claims as predictive
devices. . If they are not plausible in relation to the
present--and who is to say whether they are plausible in terms of
future reality--they still serve the valuable purpose of stimulating
discussion. . And in the long run, the increased understanding
of the present and the questions about the future generated by
this methodology are of greater value than the answers. (p. 175)









Thus, scenarios have been selected as the assessment medium for

this experiment, primarily due to the capacity to reveal the temporal

perspectives of their creators. As noted by Licht (1977) following the

extensive use of scenarios as an instructional device in his classroom,

"when the child writes scenarios, he tells us, at the same time, how he

views his future and what he would like his future to become" (p. 80).

In addition, the scenario is a particularly advantageous method of

generating assessment data, since a variety of reliable approaches for

evaluating verbal and written descriptions of the future have been

devised by the multitude of psychological researchers who chose to

investigate the human time experience.

The design of this study entails the evaluation of scenarios

projecting personalized images of the future as written by a group of

middle school students from five randomly selected classrooms. These

personal vignettes, which are analyzed and qualitatively rated according

to a designated element of time perspective exhibited in the narratives,

represent the dependent variable of the study. Each scenario is

evaluated by a direct method of assessment for which a specific,

predetermined criterion (primary trait) has been established. The

primary trait examined is concerned with appraising an element of time

perspective as revealed through storytelling and literature.

One specific dimension of temporal perspective has been identified

as particularly relevant to the evaluation of these scenarios which

entail personally-projected images of future events and conditions.

This measurement dimension, temporal extension, is fully described









in the second and third chapters of this report. Written guidelines

are employed as a clearly defined protocol for rating the measurement

dimension. An initial training program regarding the proper use of

the assessment procedures is administered to two independent raters.

To insure the necessary level of inter-rater reliability, opportunities

are provided to discuss differences in scoring which occur during the

scenario evaluation training.

The scenarios of each student are rated on the designated dimension

of temporal extension, creating a numerical indicator of the dependent

variable. These scores are related to the Jungian psychological types

of the subjects (obtained through an administration of the MBTI

following the scenario-producing exercise). These MBTI scores constitute

the independent variable of the investigation. Following the theory

postulated by Mann, Siegler and Osmond, a positive relationship is

hypothesized to exist between the profile scores of the written

scenario narratives and the students' types derived by the MBTI. When

measured on the assessment scale, the mean scores of students with

future-oriented psychological types are expected to significantly

surpass those achieved by students whose types are governed by other

temporal perspectives. Thus the verification or refutation of the

proposed relationship between temporal perspectives and the psychological

typology of Jung is a major purpose of this study.

Another primary objective of this research effort is to determine

if the newly proposed temporal dimension of Jung's psychological

classification system can be successfully employed in Future Studies









classrooms to promote educational progress. A method designed to

explore this classroom application is described in the following

fashion: A second group of middle school students from five randomly

selected classrooms (the experimental group) follows the same procedures

for writing personal, future-oriented scenarios that have previously

been completed by the first group of subjects (the comparison group).

Prior to engaging in this projective writing assignment, however,

members of the experimental group are exposed to an instructional

treatment. This experimental intervention consists of a series of

exercises which have been consciously chosen to reflect both established

principles guiding the educational adaptation of Jung's psychological

theory and methodologies prevalent in Future Studies. A description

of the materials employed by the researcher during the instructional

treatment is contained in the third chapter.

Following the scenario creation, the MBTI is administered to

members of the experimental group. The results of the psychological

type instrument and the writing profile scores are derived in an

identical manner for both groups under study. A between-group analysis

is undertaken to determine whether exposure to the instructional

treatment results in significantly higher temporal extension scores

for subjects in the experimental group (as displayed in written

scenarios about the future) when compared to subjects of the same

psychological type in the non-treatment or comparison group.









Hypotheses


To examine the correlation between the Jungian psychological

types and the relative abilities of middle school students to extend

their temporal orientations while performing future-oriented tasks

(writing scenarios about the future), the aim of this study is to

test the following null hypothesis.


Hypothesis One: When subjects are grouped by psychological type

(MBTI), no significant relationship exists between the

predicted theoretical ranking (see FIGURE 1-5) and the

observed ranking of ordered mean scores registered on

an assessment of temporal extension.


Further, a subsequent goal of this study tests the impact of an

instructional treatment on an experimental group. This intervention,

which consists of selected Future Studies activities, employs Jung's

typology as a developmental guide and allows an additional null

hypothesis to be tested.


Hypothesis Two:


As measured by the assessment of temporal extension,

subjects grouped by psychological type (MBTI) in the

experimental group exhibit no significant difference

in mean scores following instructional treatment

exposure when compared to subjects of the same

psychological type in the comparison group who

received no educational intervention.









Limitations


Several elements contained in the study have been identified as

limiting factors which could potentially influence the results obtained.

Initially, a difficulty associated with the composition of the participating

population arises when the age of the subjects is considered. Researchers

familiar with the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator suggest that psychological

type, as measured by a "paper and pencil" instrument, is less reliably

indicated among youth than among adults. When reflecting upon the

source of this phenomenon, Kainz (1983) notes that the successful

completion of the MBTI requires a degree of reading proficiency which

frequently is not yet developed in children of middle school age.

Procedures for hand scoring the instrument, however, allow for the

elimination of subjects whose responses are sufficiently low in number

or suspect in pattern as to indicate the marked lack of reading

comprehension.

In a similar vein, the scenario technique which serves as the

assessment medium for this research is somewhat dependent upon subjects'

ability in symbolic expression. One placing substantial importance on

this connection might expect those students most capable in the

production of written compositions to excel at the task of scenario-

writing, regardless of psychological type or temporal perspective.

Unfortunately, no comparable writing achievement data are available

for the students participating in the study, a condition which prevents

an adequate statistical compensation for this confounding variable.






26


However, the existence of differential writing abilities among subjects

is largely counteracted in this case by the discriminating protocol

which governs the application of temporal extension as a measurement

dimension.














CHAPTER TWO
THE REVIEW OF LITERATURE


Introduction


The first topic addressed in this section is the field of

Future Studies. Discussions are presented here to afford a rationale

for the inclusion of this topic in the curriculum; to explain the

mental processes engaged in the creation of future-oriented images; to

depict the nature and range of studies in this educational domain; and

to identify the psychological characteristics which reflect the

ability of individuals to effectively envision the future. A succeeding

target of review pertains to the assessment variables involved in this

investigation. The conceptual parameters of the study, as well as the

operational definitions employed by the evaluation scheme, are delineated

here. The next subject to be considered is the specialized body of

literature describing empirical inquiries which relate various notions

of temporality to psychological type. These experiments are evaluated

for any inherent theoretical stance, methodological technique or

resulting implication perceived to have a bearing in the current

context. A fourth and final segment of the chapter examines and

reports on the published works of educators who have applied the

tenants of Jungian typology to the classroom. As suggested by the

authors, learning-related strengths attributed to each of the









functional type categories are offered as a guide from which to design

preference-sensitive instructional strategies.



Future Studies


A Rationale for Future Studies in Education


The desire to anticipate the future is prominent in human history

as attested by the flourishing of forecasting by prophets, seers and

oracles. Yet looking into the future has never been a mass phenomenon,

with the task primarily relegated to those in . the sacred

preserve of the genius . ." (Flechtheim, 1971, p. 499). More

recently, however, many scholars have come to believe that this

crucial undertaking should no longer remain an exclusive activity.

Indeed, forces of the modern world appear to have combined to make an

awareness of the future advantageous for any citizen hoping to thrive

in the times ahead.

The main determinants of this growing need for anticipating the

future have been examined by a number of speculative authors. A

general consensus among those writers (Toffler, 1970) identifies the

pervasive influence of change in the United States as one of the most

powerful formative forces currently shaping American society. Furthermore,

researchers have gone on to explain that, although the change process

is not new, the rate at which change is occurring has multiplied

dramatically (Combs, 1981; & Fabun, 1967).

As in most professions, the wide-ranging influence exercised by

the growing rate of change has not gone unnoticed among researchers in









education. As reported by Shane (1980a), the National Education

Association convened a panel of fifty professional educators to

consider the most critical issues expected to influence education in

the United States during the next one hundred years. Compiled in

1972, the following two items lead the list of forces which panelists

anticipated to exert a substantial impact upon American education.


Accelerating Change--Although participants did not foresee the

same events as equally probable, the conclusion was supported

that . an increasingly rapid rate of change could be

anticipated" (p. 59).


Increased Complexity--Called . .an inevitable concomitant of

rapid change . (p. 59), greater complexity was identified

as an enduring dimension of United States society in the future

which would place considerable demands on both institutional and

individual coping skills.


When drawing implications for education which arise from the

permeating effects of mounting change, Lewis (1981) perceives a

necessary evolution in the formative perspectives which guide the

development of practice in the field. Historically, the pedagogical

system of a relatively static society could rely on past experiences

to comprise an appropriate foundation from which to prepare learners

for a lifetime of competence. However, in an era of extremely rapid

change, the new and unforeseeable circumstances which promise to

confront citizens of the future may render such an approach obsolete.









As suggested by the author, educational methods more appropriate for a

dynamic culture would emphasize a focus on the future as well as the

past so that learners may be better equipped to encounter conditions

which are currently impossible to envision.

In conjunction with the growth of interest among prominent

educators, a variety of professional organizations in the field

sanctioned the consideration of the future as a legitimate concern for

formal education. For example, the Association for Supervision and

Curriculum Development (ASCD) asserted in its organizational resolutions

for 1979 that "ASCD should help educators develop competence in

futuristic by such actions as sponsoring futuristic institutes or

workshops, and by publishing articles on futuristic. . Further,

ASCD should encourage colleges of education to include futuristic in

the undergraduate programs of education" (p. 4).


The Role of Future Images


Exploring the complex mental processes which are necessarily

engaged when the future is envisioned has become a development central

to the conceptual progression of Future Studies. In pursuit of

understanding, however, many researchers have found the future an

elusive and difficult topic to investigate. As stated by Cornish

(1977), "Since neither 'the future' nor 'the world of the future'

exists, they cannot be studied. We can only study ideas about what

the world may be like in the future." (p. 95) Thus, the study of the

future has required investigators to explore and characterize the

manner in which abstract ideas are projected.









Among those scholars concerned with articulating the mechanics of

future-idea creation, Dutch author Fred Polak is one of the most

profound spokesmen. His work, The Image of the Future (1973) introduced

the notion that the generation of images about the future is a process

crucial to both a culture and its members. To further explain the

primary concept employed by Polak, futurist Gary Wooddell (1980)

defines the term image as . used in much the same way as the

verb imagine--that is to create a mental picture of an object or

event" (p. 92).

When discussing the more global aspects of future images, Polak

argued that the success and longevity of a culture is related to the

quality of the aggregate vision projected for that society by its

citizens. "The rise and fall of images precedes or accompanies the

rise and fall of cultures." (p. 97) Yet, though these cultural

images have numerous implications for education, the concern of this

research study is limited to the dynamics of future images occurring

within the individual. In this regard, however, one should be aware

that individual images of the future can be regarded as evidential

determinants of personal behavior in the same way that social behavior

is influenced by collective visions.

The important aspect of future images is noted by social scientist

Wendell Bell (1974), who discusses . the notion of the future as

cause . (p. 78) when explaining the dynamics of behavior. From

this perspective, images of the future are viewed as internal visions

which guide individuals when making decisions in the present. To









support the belief that future images often act as influential "causal

phenomena" (p. 78), Bell cites the work of pioneering sociologist

Arthur L. Stinchcombe (1964) which examined rebellious attitudes among

high school students. Rather than assuming a traditional approach

which emphasized the biographical past, Stinchcombe's research looked

primarily at the future images of high school students identified as

rebels and found a suggestive relationship. According to the study

conclusions, rebellion among adolescents arose primarily among those

subjects who perceived themselves as having little chance to experience

desirable occupational status or satisfactory achievement in the

future.

As documented in the previous discussion, the potential power of

future images is twofold. First, and most obvious, is the influence

images of the future exert upon the future--the creation of preferable

events or conditions in the future depends upon the formative guidance

of projected visions. Second, and less apparent, is the "retroactive

effect" (Licht, 1977, p. 81) future images bring to bear upon the

present. Paradoxically, much human behavior in the present appears to

originate as a reaction to the mental image of an event or situation

which has yet to happen.

Related to this power which future images exert upon present

reality, the ideas of sociologist Benjamin Singer (1974) have been

influential to the thinking of many educational investigators concerned

with understanding the role of future-focused projections in human

development. In his seminal work, the term "Future-Focused Role-Image"

(FFRI) is introduced, a concept defined by the author as . our









self-image projected into the future" (p. 21). Explained as being

somewhat different from other, closely-related psychological constructs,

the existence of a FFRI within individuals was later confirmed by

Shane (1980b) and characterized as . analagous to the self-concept,

but extends through time to delineate a realistic, motivating concept

of the options a person has in working towards a life-role that brings

satisfaction and promises self-respect and dignity" (p. 66).

The comprehension of future roles, a development which Singer

claims is evidenced in the speech of most children by their fourth

year, generates a type of ". . feedback from the future . "

(p. 31). Over time, such input assists in the creation of a personal

identity through which anticipated functions are tied to current

decision-making. In such a way, future expectations may do as much to

shape human conduct as the insights gained from past experiences.

When explaining the educational importance of his theory, Singer

contends that much of the motivation to learn in students, and hence

their academic achievement, is dependent, to a large degree, upon the

inducement and direction afforded by a positive FFRI. In essence,

students with a clearly developed image of who or what they wish to

become are considered more likely to value an education which assists

in the attainment of those goals. In this spirit, the author calls

upon educators to help their students cultivate a self-fulfilling

prophecy of success in the form of a well-defined Future-Focused Role

Image. "Educators cannot simply assume the presence of a time perspective

geared to the future--one that would help organize and give meaning









to learning. Often its lack subverts everything they try to accomplish.

From now on, learning must be intimately bound up with the future,

must help to structure and give meaning to that future." (p. 32)

Judging from the numerous implications for education, one might

expect future images and the nature of their formation to be a prolific

source of empirical inquiry. Unfortunately, this is not the case.

Rather, the portion of Future Studies which deals with pedagogy, not

currently matured beyond its early stages, has failed to foster an

adequate level of rigorous research. As such, the vast majority of

literature in the discipline consists of either persuasive narratives

seeking converts or practical guides full of suggestions and classroom

activities for teachers. This critical lack of formal, theory-based

investigations is noted in the following passage by Amara (1976).

"The basic problem is that--in spite of their centrality as movers of

events--we know very little about the dynamics of image formation,

sharing and transmission . ," even though . images of the

future are so important to the futures field that an understanding

of their dynamics is essential to continued progress" (p. 97).



A Future Studies Taxonomy


Despite the general deficiency of legitimate research in the

area, a growing community of scholars engaged in Future Studies has

begun to employ the scientific method more stringently when the

creation and characteristics of future images are examined. Among

this group of writers is Wooddell (1980) who, by combining the









concepts of Polak and other futurists, has suggested a taxonomy of

future-oriented studies. The classification scheme, extended and

refined for this study, acts as an organizing principle for the

diverse range of investigative efforts conducted in the realm of

Future Studies. This taxonomy is illustrated in FIGURE 2-1.


COLLECTIVE IMAGES OF THE FUTURE

CULTURALLY-SHARED IMAGES OF THE FUTURE SOCIAL STRUCTURE

CULTURALLY-SHARED IMAGES OF THE INDIVIDUAL'S ROLE IN A
FUTURE SOCIETY


INDIVIDUAL IMAGES OF THE FUTURE

SINGULARLY-HELD IMAGES OF THE FUTURE SOCIAL STRUCTURE

SINGULARLY-HELD IMAGES OF A PERSONAL FUTURE


FIGURE 2-1
FUTURE STUDIES TAXONOMY


The employment of a taxonomical framework at this juncture

provides a point of departure from which to place the educational

experiment currently under description in a proper, relative context.

Briefly explained, the first broad category (collective images of the

future) deals with those exploratory endeavors in Future Studies which

examine the images of the future jointly held in the aggregate consciousness

of citizens in a society. This designation springs from the belief

that . each culture has a dominant image which is largely shared

by its members" (Wooddell, 1980, p. 92). Within this major division

appears two subgroups of studies featuring collective, culturally-shared

images, one of which focuses on the projected characteristics of a









social structure in the future and another which concerns forecasted

conceptualizations of the individual's role in that future society.

Although rarely addressed by educators, the analysis of collective

visions has been undertaken by sociological and psychological researchers

attempting to determine the function of composite future images in

human affairs.

The second general classification (individual images of the

future) encompasses those systematic investigations in Future Studies

which highlight . the development of images of the future in

individuals, and the effect that varied images may have on the behavior

of those individuals" (p. 92). Two subdivisions are also contained

within this major grouping of individual visions, one of which features

singularly-held images of the future social structure and another

whose representatives are singularly-held images of a personal future.

Unlike the treatment of collective images, educational researchers

have shown a greater interest in the scrutiny of individual images

since they appear easier to capture with measurement techniques

and more susceptable to the influence of "appropriate intervention

strategies" (p. 94).

The existence of a dichotomy between social and personal images

of the future is supported by the work of Toffler (1974) who also

views these two variations of individual visions as being qualitatively

different and primarily independent. This belief originated when

Toffler, during several years of teaching classes on the future,

noticed a dramatic pattern of responses among his students whenever a









particular educational exercise was employed. In this classroom

activity, participants were required to create two separate listings

of future events--one of expected occurrences in society and another

of anticipated events in their personal lives. When the lists were

compared, the two types of projections were frequently inconsistent,

even within the same individual. As stated by the author, "one could

not help but be struck by the disconnectedness between the two sets of

forecasts" (1974, p. 10).

Toffler goes on to portray this bipolar arrangement as a contrast

between the impersonal and the personal future. The phenomenon,

referred to by Rice as the . stark discrepancy between first-person

future and third-person future which inevitably occurs . (1979,

p. 5), appears to account for the majority of individuals who are more

adept at creating images of the anticipated world-at-large than at

formulating expectations of a more personal nature. Thus, even those

persons who demonstrate a sophisticated command of forecasting images

in the socio-political arena (such as the use of new technologies or

the interplay of nations) may be relatively unable to incorporate the

future-imaging process into their own lives. Such a disparity between

the two classifications of individual images has prompted Toffler to

comment that, for many students, . the future is something that

happens to somebody else" (1974, p. 10).

The general difference of abilities within individuals regarding

the two types of future-oriented perception is attributed, in part,

to the growing prominence of the media in American life--a development









Toffler claims has helped create a generation of students inordinately

preoccupied with social events. Also, the schools are criticized for

placing a disproportionate emphasis on the past and present, creating

a . false message about the future . (Toffler, 1974, p. 11)

from which students Fail to perceive the profound importance of rapid

change in their own lives and the resultant need for individuals to

cultivate images of a personal future. When addressing those educators

responsible for curriculum design, Toffler contends that a stress on

the future is crucial . to the development of generalized,

tentative life plans . which help orient the individual in the

midst of hurricaning change. In this way, the future becomes intensely

personal instead of remote" (1974, p. 18).



Components of a Futures Perspective


An important aspect of the Future Studies movement in education

has been the need to identify and objectively measure the way individuals

look at the future. More specifically, researchers have realized

that, until the generic mental constructs shared by capable futurists

are established, the goals and relative effectiveness of instructional

approaches in educational futurism will remain indistinguishable.

Yet, though many practitioners tentatively believe in a set of

psychological characteristics common to all those individuals adept at

creating images of the future, the precise nature of these traits has

proven difficult to designate and quantify. However, attempts at

determining this desirable group of qualities which enable one to









successfully envision the future--called a futures perspective by

many authors--have recently begun to bear fruitful results.

SWithin this context, a set of studies conducted by Fletcher

(1979) and Fletcher and Wooddell (1980) are perhaps the most ambitious

and meaningful investigations to date. While attempting to develop a

model curriculum of Future Studies for middle school students, these

two educators encountered difficulty in locating an assessment instrument

suitable for gauging the impact of their design upon participants. As

a result, an extensive review of the literature was initiated .

to examine the writings and lives of persons generally recognized as

futurists and to generalize from that examination a list of key

concepts or characteristics of a futures perspective" (1980, p. 20).

Following a two year search in which literary works from a great

number of scholars concerned with the future were scrutinized, Fletcher

and Wooddell created a collection of elements which, when combined,

allegedly constitute a futures perspective. This composite list,

shown in FIGURE 2-2, is comprised of key concepts which represent a

synthesis of . the essential characteristics common to all

futurists, regardless of specific interest and concerns" (1980, p. 21).


ALTERNATIVES AND CHOICE

PURPOSEFUL ACTION

HOLISM AND STAKEHOLDERS

GUIDING IMAGES

EXTENDED TIME FRAMES


FIGURE 2-2
ELEMENTS OF A FUTURES PERSPECTIVE









At this point, an appropriate direction to proceed appears to be

the analysis of FIGURE 2-2 in light of the goals determined for

this study and described in the first chapter. In this respect, a

composite listing like the one suggested provides an excellent conceptual

framework from which to build the goals and select the enabling

activities of a Future Studies curriculum. However, a portion of

those designated elements require relatively subjective assessments

and have yet to be expressed in the clearly quantifiable terms

which formal study demands. As such, three of the components mentioned

(alternatives and choice; purposeful action; holism and stakeholders)

are currently deemed of limited application due to their indefinite

nature.

As mentioned, some segments of the proposed futures perspective

are inadequate for incorporation into a research design which conforms

to accepted scientific standards. However, the two remaining components

of this formative construct seem applicable to approved methods of

systematic inquiry and are included as dimensions of this research

study. The first of these, guiding images, has been discussed earlier

in this chapter. As employed here, such directive visions are an

inherent feature of the assessment vehicle, being explicitly generated

through the production of written scenarios. In this sense, scenario-

writing is a forecasting technique being employed as an instructional

tool to generate individual guiding images of a personal future.

The second and most indicative feature of the synthesized futures

perspective to be included is the extended time frame. This dimension,









identified by Fletcher as . the most crucial of the ideas of

time that relate to futures studies . (1979, p. 30), refers to

the notion that capable futurists are adept at engaging a lengthy

temporal outlook through which the cumulative and often tangential

effects of change can best be appreciated. According to the authors,

this expansive psychological trait is rare among a general population

most frequently preoccupied with pressing, immediate concerns. Thus,

in borrowing the most definitive and measurable aspects of a futures

perspective, one of the aims of this investigation is to determine the

relative presence of extended time frames contained within the personal,

guiding images of subjects as reflected by written scenarios about the

future.


Assessment Parameters and Methodologies


Though the attention of psychology has been directed towards

explaining temporal experience as far back as the last century, early

investigations largely focused on extra-individual concerns where the

stimulus or experimentally controlled conditions (such as the introduction

of drugs or hypnosis) comprised the chief targets of interest. By the

1950's, however, a new breed of inquiries emerged which looked within

the individual to characterize . the projection of the self in

the temporal dimension as part of the uniqueness of personality"

(Wallace & Rabin, 1960, p. 232). Since that time, a substantial

number of such inquiries have been initiated.









Unfortunately, the extensive volume of studies concerned with

individual temporal orientation has been hindered by numerous conceptual

and methodological inconsistencies which fragment and obscure the data

generated. Reviews of the literature documenting research conducted

in this area have been published by Wallace and Rabin (1960), Ruiz,

Reivich and Krauss (1967) and Platt, De Lisser, Eisenman and Darbes

(1971) who have uniformly cited this unorganized condition and postulated

several contributing factors. One element identified by these authors

as perpetuating this confusing pool of results is the many, often

incongruous, definitions researchers have employed to portray temporal

orientation. Another obstacle to the clear interpretation of investigations

in this realm arises from the wide diversity of instruments and

techniques used to measure temporal orientation, few of which are

sufficiently, if remotely, comparable.

This lack of uniformity has made difficult the recognition of

those concomitant characteristics which authentically interact with

temporal orientation and for which accommodations should be made. In

this respect, sex, age, race, socio-economic status and various

components of mental health are just a portion of the many sociological

and demographic traits found to have both profound and negligible

effects, depending on the definitions and methodologies utilized. The

inability to draw generalizable conclusions regarding the relative

influence of concomitant variables upon perceptions of time not only

demonstrates a fundamental weakness in this field of research but

also illustrates the many practical difficulties encountered when

attempting to assess such an elusive perceptual phenomenon.









To help clarify the complex mass of time-related empirical

explorations, a taxonomy has been devised by Evans (1976) which

offers a useful set of distinctions for this study. These

discriminating categories include "internal time estimation" (a

person's ability to correctly gauge periods of elapsed time without

using instruments) and "internal time awareness" (a person's subjective

feelings regarding the relative speed with which time is passing in

various environments). A third domain of temporal consciousness,

termed "internal time perspective," is also depicted in the Evans

study and appears directly applicable to the focus of this dissertation.

Such a designation refers to an individual's general psychological

bearing towards time or . how close he feels to the past,

present and future" (p. 5). Viewed in this manner, internal time

perspective (the terms "temporal perspective" and "temporal orientation"

are used synonomously here) pertains not to an isolated, temporary

phenomenon but rather represents a consistent and inter-related

psychic component which reflects the fabric of the total personality.

One additional deliniation of terms adds further theoretical

precision at this juncture. Specifically, since the intent of the

current investigation is to empirically characterize typologically-

related notions of the future, an emphasis on this one particular

portion of internal time perspective is necessary. In this regard,

the idea of "future time perspective," employed by Wallace and defined

as . the timing of personalized future events . (1956,

p. 240), represents the precise conceptual target of inquiry here.









Within the guidelines just drawn, numerous operational concepts

have been designated by researchers to represent future time perspective.

To minimize confusion in this study, several criteria have been chosen

to guide the selection of an appropriate and reliable measurement

variable. Initially, an assessment method is needed here which can

provide a detailed and sophisticated evaluation of the future since

that particular temporal direction has been designated as the specific

domain of investigative interest. Furthermore, any techniques chosen

should relate to gauging extended time frames since, as described

earlier, that quality has been hypothesized to be a salient element of

the future-oriented time perspective.

An operational concept which appropriately responds to both those

requirements is the dimension of temporal extension. In this context,

extension attempts to gauge the degree to which an individual's

temporal focus extends into the future. A common method applied to

expose the inherent temporal extension of a story relies upon elapsed

time. As employed by Smart (1968) and others, extension reflects

time covered by the action described in subject responses to premises

posed by the investigator. Specifically, different temporal extension

scores are awarded depending on the time span covered by the action in

a story.

Though appropriate when used to assess stories which start in

the present and progress toward the future, a somewhat different

conceptualization of extension is needed here since events contained

within the written scenarios may take place wholly in the future.









A more fitting meaning of temporal extension has been characterized by

Wallace (1956) as the range of time included between the actual age of

a subject and the most distant event conceptualized by that individual

when responding to experimental cues. When employing a similar

assessment philosophy, the evaluation protocol of Squyres (1980)

corresponds to the operational nature of temporal extension as conceived

for the study under description. As stated, "The difference between

the subject's current age and the age (s)he would be at the most

distant event in the future is a measure of the subject's conceptualized

extension into the future" (p. 50).

To empirically assess temporal extension and other dimensions of

time perspective identified by researchers, a wide variety of related

tests have been constructed. Although somewhat diverse, the vast

majority of operational constructs designated can be classified into

three basic types of assessment methodologies:

(1) Structured, Self-Report Instruments--Assessment vehicles of

this nature include prefabricated, paper and pencil-oriented questionnaires

usually comprised of forced-choice items. Although vulnerable to

conscious control by participating subjects (Squyres, 1980), instruments

in this category have been employed extensively to expose time perspective.

Examples in use include The Time Reference Inventory, a thirty-item

test designed by Roos and Albers (1965) to reveal temporal bearing;

The Experiential World Inventory (El-Meligi, 1971), an extensive (four

hundred true-false items) test battery containing eight subscales, one

of which emphasizes the discrimination of time perception; and an










unnamed, ninety-one item instrument with a Likert-style format authored

by Calabresi and Cohen (1968) which includes four subset measures of

temporal orientation.

(2) Event-Listing Techniques--Methods of this type generally

require subjects to create an inventory of events which contains the

most important experiences of their lives. Each participant subsequently

reviews the resultant list and differentiates between those experiences

which have already occurred, those currently underway and those yet

expected to happen. The relative proportion of events in each category

provides the administrator with a temporal indicator. In variation of

this theme, subjects review the list created and assign specific dates

of actual or anticipated occurrence to each experience. Examples of

event-listing protocols include The Events Test (Wallace, 1956);

The Experiential Inventory (Cottle, 1976); and The Personal Events

Scale (Mehta et al., 1972).

(3) Projective Stories--Investigators who choose to employ this

classification of assessment vehicle believe that projective stories

have the capacity to reveal the temporal perspective of their creator.

In response to stimulating premises supplied by the experimenter, the

test-taker is required to compose, in either an oral or written form,

a thematic story. In turn, the stories generated are evaluated for

their relative temporal qualities. Examples of the projective story-

telling technique are numerous and involve a variety of visual and

verbal stimulus cues. Methods using pictures as a generative premise

have been employed by Epley and Ricks (1963) and Murray (1971), while









those protocols entailing oral or written directives have been featured

in the works of Le Shan (1952), Barndt and Johnson (1955), and Smart

(1968), among others.

As recounted in the first chapter, written scenarios have been

identified as educational products which may also serve a research

purpose in the form of illustrative assessment vehicles. Thus, in the

context of the project described herein, scenario-writing constitutes

a variation of the projective story technique. As such, the inherent

stories contained within the scenarios produced by student subjects

are analyzed and compared on the dimension of temporal extension.



Studies Relating Time-Oriented Images to Psychological Type


An experiment which relates temporality to the psychological

typology of Jung was conducted by Evans (1976). This research effort

not only investigated a set of temporal orientations theoretically

assigned to each of the four dominant functional categories (feeling,

thinking, sensing and intuition) but also examined the affective

associations attached to the various time dimensions (past, present

and future) by each of those major "psycho-temporal" (p. 10) types.

The hypothesis of primary focus is inspired by the work of Mann,

Siegler and Osmond (1968, 1971, 1972) as described in the first

chapter of this document and attempts to empirically test the

postulations of these authors regarding the link between time and

psychological type.









Procedures involved the cooperation of one hundred and fifty male

and female volunteers between the ages of twenty and fifty years who

responded to two instruments: The Myers-Briggs Type Indicator (MBTI)

to identify psychological type and The Temporal Reference Inventory

(TRI) which reveals an individual's orientation to time. Developed by

Roos and Albers (1965), the TRI is a thirty item paper-and-pencil

questionnaire which measures the extension of time in both the past

and future directions. When analyzing the TRI responses, "the ratio

for future projection/past projection permitted 1.0 to statistically

represent the present" (p. 99). In this manner, those scores under

1.0 signify persons with a gradient preference for the past. Conversely,

as respondents' scores increase beyond 1.0 (the present), the greater

their degree of temporal extention towards the future.

Results showed the mean group scores for temporal orientation to

be aligned in the following order:

Feeling-dominant 0.64

Sensing-dominant 1.08

Thinking-dominant 1.29

Intuition-dominant 2.30

From this sequence, the authors determined that feeling-dominant types

were the only subjects with a temporal emphasis on the past; that

sensing-dominant types display an outlook closely associated with the

present; and that persons who hold thinking and intuitive functions as

predominant characteristically extend their internal perspective into

the future to varying degrees. As a result of these findings, the









major hypothesis was accepted, providing support for the time-type

relationship proposed by Mann, Siegler and Osmond.

Although appropriate for goals identified in the Evans inquiry,

the TRI appears marginally applicable to the experimental purposes

described herein. Initially, a portion of the instrument is devoted

to affective assessment--an important variable, yet not a dimension

chosen for scrutiny in the scheme proposed. Similarly, the scale is a

prefabricated, forced-choice instrument which gauges temporal extension

in both directions. The specific task at hand, however, calls for a

rating system which can focus exclusively on the differential manner

in which each functional type views the future as directly reflected

in an individualized educational product.

An investigation initiated by Marcus (1976) also relates primarily

to the postulates of Mann, Siegler and Osmond when addressing the

nature of the time-type relationship. Using Jung's typology to

differentiate subjects, the study hypothesized that sensation-dominant

types would be more present-oriented; that intuitive-dominant types

would be more future-oriented; that feeling-dominant types would have

an orientation divided between the past and the present (a slight

variation of the theoretical stance assumed by Mann and her colleagues);

and that thinking-dominant types would display an orientation equally

distributed between past, present and future. As indicated by this

description, the focus of inquiry selected for the experiment is

similar to the Evans study depicted earlier in which the four predominant

typological categories are treated as singular, primarily independent









determinants of time perspective. As such, the investigation fails to

address the specific temporal nature of the functions when interacting

within the individual and, thus, generates time-related conclusions

restricted to the more global applications of Jungian theory.

In addition to the predictions already cited, Marcus extended the

scope of the supposed connection between type and time to include

projected temporal orientations associated with the bipolar dimension

of extraversion-introversion. According to the researcher, the manner

in which persons prefer to deal with the external world is directly

associated with the way they view time. Specifically, Es were said

to be the more present-directed of these two orienting attitudes,

while Is were hypothesized to assume a linear perspective in which

emphasis is equally distributed between the three temporal dimensions.

The subjects assessed in the investigation were one hundred

and thirty-six randomly-selected male and female volunteers between

the ages of twenty and forty years who, in addition to taking the

MBTI, completed a battery of three written instruments aimed at

revealing their dominant orientation to time. The data were assessed

by a pair of two-factor analysis of variance designs. Initially, the

scheme related four levels of psychological type (sensing, intuition,

thinking and feeling) to three levels of time orientation (past,

present and future). A second procedure compared two different levels

of psychological type extraversionn and introversion) to the same

three standard levels of temporal direction. In both cases, the

time-indicative mean scores for each psychological type classification









were determined by combining the outcomes of the three instruments.

Results of the two analyses found the differences between mean scores

not to be statistically significant at the .05 level of confidence.

When explaining the absence of the predicted relationship, the

author postulates that the rubric of time orientation, as conceptualized

in this case, was overly inclusive and may actually be comprised of

numerous subsets. From this perspective, even though the tests

employed were conceived with identical intent and achieved internal

consistency, they may have failed to measure the same specific,

time-dependent phenomenon. In addition, effects associated with

biased sampling may be a source of interference in this arrangement

due to an under-representation (7 percent) of sensing types. This

figure is appreciably smaller than the proportion of sensing types

(65-75 percent) contained in the general population as gleaned from

research and reported by McCaulley (1974, p. 6).

When viewed in the current context, the most relevant instrument

of the three temporal assessment techniques selected by Marcus is The

Experiential Inventory (Cottle, 1976) in which respondents are first

asked to create a list of the ten most important experiences in their

lives, and then to fit those events into time-specific categories.

During scoring, these categorical results are examined for their

relative proportion of responses. Although originally intended to

provide its takers with an unbiased opportunity to express temporal

preference, Marcus later questioned this choice when remarking that

"the instructions appear to encourage primarily a list of past and

present events" (1976, p. 62).









Another approach to investigating the interplay between psychological

temperament and temporal projection is embodied in a diverse study by

Smith (1976) which combined Jungian typology, information theory and

computer simulation. The purpose of such a synthesis was to create

theoretical support for a proposed planning model in the Organizational

Management field. Of several hypotheses tested, the one pertinent to

this literature review attempted to determine the preferred time

horizon of individuals with different personality (MBTI) types as

reflected by the decisions made in a structured, business-oriented

game.

In this formal exercise, the seventy participating graduate

students were required to assume the role of management leaders,

select goals relative to that position, and then designate "projected

time horizons" (p. 46) which indicated how far into the future they

expected to wait before reaching a maximal level of satisfaction

for each goal chosen. Overall, the results appeared to support the

author's contention that judging types exhibit somewhat longer or

more extended time horizons than perceiving types. To achieve

significance, however, the researcher necessarily employed instruments

allowing for the statistical control of both the confounding effects

of stress in the simulation environment and for defensiveness when

responding to questionnaires. In addition, a self-selection bias

within the sample may cast serious doubts upon the validity of such

conclusions. In this respect, all of the participants were members of

the UCLA Graduate School of Management--a condition which resulted in









a study population containing relatively few individuals (8 percent)

with a preference for the sensing function.

A content analysis of responses to The Time Horizons Questionnaire

was the method engaged to illustrate temporal preference in this

instance. The instrument is highly specialized and appears to have

little application beyond the context of commercially-oriented decision

making (the dependent variable indicator is the mean number of fiscal

quarters anticipated until success is accomplished). As such, this

restricted focus appears wholly inappropriate for the purpose of

gauging individual, personal images of the future in middle school

students.

An empirical project in the field of Management Science by Evered

(1973) strove to determine the structural relationship between one's

Jungian type, "futurizing style" (p. 157), and approach to organizational

activism. In the pursuit of devising a theory of leadership roles for

institutional change, the study set out to identify the manner in

which individuals of differing psychological type derive and express

their images of the future in a turbulent environment. Through an

in-depth analysis of essays about personal futures, evidence of the

authors' intrinsic time perspective was assumed to be represented in

the language comprising those written statements.

Study subjects consisted of ninety-six men and women who were

perceived to be operating in a turbulent environment (all were graduate

students in a highly-unstructured MBA program) and who voluntarily

agreed to take part. Following a rating of the writing samples in










light of temporally-based criteria, the derived scores were then

compared to the creator's corresponding psychological type. The

postulated link between time perspective, psychological type and

activism failed to develop clearly. However, effects relevant to the

literature review occurred in which "students using 'I' when discussing

an important decision in two years time are more likely to be perceivers

than judgers" (p. 204).

In their work with gifted and talented students, educational

psychologist E. Paul Torrance and his associates have payed close

attention to the personal images of the future held by that exceptional

population (Torrance and Reynolds, 1978). As a result of this

observation, the investigators have come to believe not only that

learners identified as gifted and talented demonstrate qualitatively

different images of the future than students of other ability

classifications, but that the difference identified requires special

instructional consideration. In pursuit of appropriate instructional

strategies, the researchers undertook a study to gauge the impact of

alienation and specialized cerebral functioning (rather than psychological

type) upon the formation of future-focused images within this special

segment of the student community.

The subjects tested in the project were two hundred high school

students who attended a six weeks summer honors program featuring

information on careers and futures studies. When the first dependent

variable was analyzed, the predicted discrepancy between the future

images of participants measured as high and low on the alienation









assessment instrument was not found. However, in the case of specialized

brain functioning, individual hemispherical preference was determined

through administration of a forty-item, self-report instrument devised

by the researchers from a synthesis of brain-related research. Those

students who displayed either right hemisphere specialized functions

or integrated functions excelled at creating images of their personal

future when compared to those classmates with a left hemisphere

orientation.

The assessment vehicle chosen to reveal the character of future

images generated in the Torrance and Reynolds investigation is labelled

"posttest soliloquies" (p. 42). Similar to the scenario-writing

technique, the content of recorded stories created in this manner was

rated on the following eight dimensions: number of words; satisfaction

with career; perception of self as changed; perception of world as

changed; work for a better world; awareness of future problems;

proposed future solutions; perception of self as a creative person.

Unfortunately, a specific protocol describing the application of these

standards is not included in the study report.

Although not concerned specifically with time-dependent images,

Andrea (1983) has looked at imagery in a more general sense and

questioned the relationship between that process and Jungian psychological

typology. As a condition of the research, imagery was defined as

" . an inner-directed activity utilizing concrete sensory referents"

(p. 69). Engaging this definition, the author hypothesized that

introverted types (as opposed to extraverts) and intuitive types (as









opposed to sensors) would be more likely to control their imagery. To

evaluate this assumption, the scores of participants on a test of

visual imagery control constituted the dependent variable. The

report's description of control, as used in this context, is somewhat

sketchy and states only that subjects responded either positively or

negatively to oral questions posed by the experimenter . depending

on their ability to manipulate evoked visual images" (p. 70). In

discrete fashion, those participants attaining scores above the median

were labeled controlled imagers, while those subjects registering

below that point were said to demonstrate autonomous imagery.

Subjects for the study were twenty-five male and female graduate

student clients of a university counseling center who voluntarily

complied with a request to answer orally the eleven questions contained

in the test of imagery control as well as to complete the MBTI.

Analyses uncovered no supportable discrepancy between the ways in

which introverts and extraverts controlled their imagery process.

Regarding the second premise, however, evidence suggested that intuitives

exhibited significantly greater control over their imagery than

sensors.

Though provocative in nature, inherent factors of the Andrea

study which may prevent its conclusions from being broadly generalized

include the small number of subjects involved, the vague description

of operational terms employed, and the use of a sample population

comprised exclusively of individuals seeking personal counseling.

In addition, the definition of imagery, as conceptualized in this









investigation, does not differentiate between temporal dimensions. As

a result, precisely how the concepts employed in this research effort

apply to the creation of future images remains unclear.



The Use of Jungian Typology and the MBTI in Education


A predominant role of psychological type in education revolves

around the differential abilities inherent in the bipolar dimension of

intuition versus sensing (N-S). As noted by McCaulley and Natter

(1974), one of the most consistent findings of research related to the

MBTI . is that Intuitive types average higher on aptitude measures

than Sensing types" (p. 117). Empirical studies exist which show

intuitives rank higher than sensors on measures of science interest

and achievement (Rowe, 1978);.math achievement (May, 1972); reading

achievement (McCaulley and Natter, 1974); learning and adaptability in

laboratory experiences (Steele, 1968); and the quality of contributions

to classroom discussions (Carskadon, 1978), among others.

This disparate relationship, referred to by Hoffman and Betkouski

as . the power of intuition over sensing as a cognitive determinant

S. (1983, p. 16), is vividly portrayed in a work by McCaulley

(1974, p. 6) which compiles data on an array of populations that have

taken the MBTI. Relevant portions of this comparative listing are

featured in TABLE 2-1 to illustrate the interplay of sensing and

intuition among groups exhibiting different levels of academic

achievement. In addition to representative population proportions, a

number of related characteristics variously attributed by McCaulley to










intuition and sensation are detailed in FIGURE 2-3 as they appear to

have a direct bearing not only on general academic achievement, but

also on the ability of an individual to generate future images and

create written scenarios.



TABLE 2-1
THE RELATIVE DISTRIBUTION OF SENSING AND
INTUITION IN SELECTED SAMPLE POPULATIONS


POPULATIONS SENSING TYPES INTUITIVE TYPES


GENERAL POPULATION 65% to 75% 25% to 35%

ADULTS WHO DID NOT
FINISH 8th GRADE
(N = 500) 99.6% 0.4%

PA. 11th AND 12th
GRADERS NON-
ACADEMIC GROUP
(N = 1430) 85% 15%

PA. 11th AND 12th
GRADERS ACADEMIC
GROUP (N = 3503) 58% 42%

IVY LEAGUE FRESHMEN
(N = 3676) 41% 59%

NATIONAL MERIT
SCHOLARSHIP
FINALISTS (N = 1101) 18% 82%

MACKINNON'S CREATIVE:
CREATIVE WRITERS
(N = 17) 12% 88%


Note: The general population figures are estimates.









RELATED CHARACTERISTICS SENSING TYPES INTUITIVE TYPES


INTERESTED IN: WORKING WITH TANGIBLE LANGUAGE, SPOKEN
OBJECTS AND WRITTEN

TYPICAL APPROACH: CUE ATTENDANCE HYPOTHESIS
GENERATION

EXCELLENCE COMES FROM: PRACTICAL REALISM VISION OF THE
FUTURE

TEST PERFORMANCE:
WRITTEN, ESSAY SCORES LOWER SCORES HIGHER

FIGURE 2-3
SELECTED CHARACTERISTICS RELATED
TO SENSING AND INTUITION



In addition to the characteristics recorded by McCaulley, intuitive

types have been shown to be advantaged in other psychological capacities

related to the goals and methodology of this research project.

Specifically, Ns have also scored higher than Ss on measures of

creativity (Barberousse, 1965); imagination (Anast, 1965; & Ross,

1961); and fantasy experience (Haber, 1980). Furthermore, an important

conclusion proposed by Golanty-Koel (1978) and reported by Hoffman and

Betkouski (1983) regarding reading aptitude appears applicable here

since the capturing of future images in a scenario-writing format

requires many of the same symbolic, language-oriented skills. Findings

report that sensing types are less likely to perceive relationships

between stories read and life outside of school and rarely picture

themselves acting as a character in a book. Intuitives, on the other

hand, . like to read, think about themselves when reading, can

identify with a character . and have been impressed by a book for

several days after reading" (p. 17).









From the discussion of differences in aptitude between sensing

types and intuitive types, several important conclusions surface.

Initially, a considerable bias appears to exist within standard

educational measurement methods which favor intuitives. McCaulley

(1974) noted this prejudice when stating "in short, Intuitive types

. . score higher on most aptitude tests which are designed (usually

by Intuitive types) to test verbal skills, speed of comprehension,

ability to draw inferences--those aspects of 'intelligence' especially

valued by Intuitive types" (p. 6-7).

Secondly, a similar tendency to value intuition at the expense of

sensation resides in the vast majority of instructional techniques

employed in the traditional classroom. "Intuitives . appear to

have the greater potential for success in school from the beginning.

Most classroom instruction is based on the use of symbols, an area in

which intuitives show up well" (Hoffman and Betkowski, 1983, pp. 18).

When considering the impact of this apparent pedagogical bias, one

should remember that sensing types outnumber intuitive types by two or

three to one in the average classroom.

A third and final conclusion related to performance discrepancies

in the sensation-intuition dimension offers specific implications for

the particular research task presently at hand. As noted in an

earlier discussion, the consideration of the future appears to be an

intuitive act by it's very nature. In this regard, education focusing

on the future seems to inherently share the bias exhibited by most

teaching methods whereby sensing types operate at a disadvantage.









Similarly, though written scenarios are legitimate educational products

that can be used as assessment vehicles, the degree of their ultimate

success is highly dependent upon the author's employment of graphic

linguistic expression--another skill generally attributed more to

intuitives than sensors. Thus, as with most formal educational

formats, the instructional program devised for the present experiment

must take extraordinary measures to insure the incorporation of

strategies which actively include sensing types.

Following the review of comparative aptitude data and the

implications which result, a logical next step appears to be the

compilation of relevant suggestions for differential instructional

approaches which specifically attend to the individual needs of the

various psychological types. For this reason, a listing of each

dimension of type and the corresponding educational strengths and

preferences of those classifications is presented. These guidelines

were followed during the formation of the instructional treatment

compiled for this research project.


Extraverted (E) Types:

Learn best when the concept follows experience; prefer group

learning and action projects; engage in much learning by trial

and error; have relatively shorter attention span than introverts

(McCaulley, 1974).


Like action; seek out groups for work and sociability; show

most interest in happenings in the immediate environment; are









drawn to the new; can adapt readily to changes; may do better on

oral than on written tests; may do better on tests where knowledge

is applied rather than on tests assessing concepts and ideas; are

more willing than introverts to make oral presentations; benefit

from cooperative and work-study kinds of programs (Myers, 1974).


Prefer self-contained classroom environments (Morales, 1975).


Introverted (I) Types:

Learn best if the concept precedes experience; prefer individual

learning and library projects; display relatively longer attention

spans than extraverts (McCaulley, 1974).


Interested in causal reasoning; prefer to work alone or in

small group; may prefer writing to talking; may do better on

written tests than oral; usually perform better on tests dealing

with concepts and ideas as opposed to practical application;

probably find interruptions unwelcome (Myers, 1974).


Prefer open-space classroom environments (Morales, 1975).


Appear to do well in computer-assisted instructional formats

(Hopmeier, 1981).


Sensing (S) Types:

Prefer working with tangible objects; work in a steady, progressive

manner; relate the new to present experience; display lower

interest and skill in reading than intuitives; prefer active

learning to book-oriented learning; perform at a disadvantage in

timed tests (McCaulley, 1974).









Are interested in real things as opposed to symbolism; show

little intrinsic interest in words and meanings; are uncomfortable

when dealing with materials which are highly complex, abstract or

theoretical; learn best when given a principle followed by many

examples; enjoy practice and drill; dislike written tests (essay)

and tests requiring theoretical knowledge; prefer objective

tests; enjoy teaching methods involving media (Myers, 1974).


Favor extrinsic motivation, i.e. response and its reinforcement

(Isaac, 1975).


Intuitive (N) Types:

Are interested in language, spoken or written; work in spurts of

energy; relatively skillful and interested in reading when

compared to sensors; generally score higher on written (essay)

tests; prefer dealing with concepts and ideas; enjoy seeking

relationships and meanings (McCaulley, 1974).


Are interested in new possibilities; enjoy using imagination;

focus on the conceptual whole rather than details or facts;

value quickness of perceptions; are easily bored with drill and

repetition; enjoy problem solving; often encounter difficulty in

managing assignments on time; tend to do well on written and

timed tests; prefer independent study and tasks which require

mental synthesis (Myers, 1974).


Favor intrinsic motivation, i.e. stimulus novelty and its

exploration (Isaac, 1975).









Thinking (T) Types:

Prefer to make decisions objectively (orders information in terms

of antecedents and consequences); prefer to work in situations

and with materials which adhere to the principles of logic; are

likely to score higher on tests related to the sciences

(McCaulley, 1974).


Prefer to make judgments impersonally; search for an objective

truth in situations; are usually more interested in things than

in people; are motivated more by logic than emotions; like

working in systematic conceptual progressions; appear to like

lectures; may do better than feeling types when working with

equipment; generally approach education in a serious, business-

like manner; favor instructional strategies in which subject

matter is mastered (Myers, 1974).


Feeling (F) Types:

Prefer to make decisions subjectively (weighs the importance of

alternatives to self or others); prefer working with or studying

people; are likely to score higher on tests of social sensitivity

than thinking types (McCaulley, 1974).


Prefer to make judgments on a personal basis; are interested in

the human aspect of issues and helping people; enjoy communicating

with others; understand new material best if presented from the

human angle; prefer working in harmonious groups; are motivated

more by friendship and affiliation than by logic; score higher on









assessments of social awareness than thinking types; readily seek

goals which have important personal value; generally respond well

to teacher praise and appreciation (Myers, 1974).


Judging (3) Types:

Prefer learning in a planned, orderly way; aim to regulate and

control life; enjoy systematic, organized approaches to problem

solving; are likely to work towards capacity and get better

grades than perceiving types (McCaulley, 1974).


Appear more decisive than curious; enjoy educational course

offerings which entail well-defined tasks and structured assignments;

enjoy following a schedule; usually finish assignments on time;

are frequently rated by instructors as responsible and dependable;

may make decisions prematurely based on insufficient information;

want a clear image of expectations in a classroom; are more

likely than perceiving types to enjoy the tasks of school, i.e.,

studying, preparing for tests and making reports; value structure

and accomplishing things; seek purposeful action and closure

(Myers, 1974).


Perceiving (P) Types:

Prefer learning in a flexible, spontaneous way; aim to understand

and adapt to life; absorb much information through a curious and

receptive attitude; are likely to score higher on intelligence

tests than judging types (McCaulley, 1974).









Appear more curious than decisive; value spontaneity; enjoy

educational offerings which are flexible and adapted to topical

interests; learn best by being adaptable; may tend to procrastinate

on assignments; are frequently rated by instructors as perceptive

and open; often fail to organize a plan, making assignments late;

frequently distracted when studying; often feel restricted in

traditionally-structured classrooms; enjoy flexible classroom

formats which offer the freedom to explore and gather data

(Myers, 1974).


In addition to the type-oriented teaching recommendations which

assume a generic posture and are not primarily tied to the creation of

particular educational products, other suggestions have been posed

which relate more specifically to the generation of scenarios. The

most comprehensive such advice comes from Jensen and Di Tiberio (1983)

who, while working as academic counselors in a large university,

effectively engaged Jungian type theory to assist student writers.

Specifically, these educators have suggested a method by which information

about psychological type preferences can be applied towards improving

the writing process. Their proposal, which assumes the form of basic

instructional guidelines, attempts to accommodate the differing

strengths of each major Jungian type classification in the production

of written expression.

From this work, two basic premises arise which apply to persons

of all psychological types:









(1) Students most frequently experience writing blocks when too

heavily dependent upon their dominant processes or when

required to produce written narratives in an externally-

imposed format not appropriately suited to their personality.

Such a condition appears to indicate a curvelinear relationship

between the proper use of type preference and the successful

writing process in which too little or too much type reliance

can be debilitating. Stated in another way, the best

results from writing efforts are obtained when functional

strengths are neither ignored nor utilized exclusively.


(2) Writing can best be facilitated among students . when

they use the strengths of their type in the early stages of

writing, especially while still generating ideas" (p. 14).

This axiom implies that, even though a well-balanced usage

of type may lead to superior final results when writing, the

most fruitful point of departure allows students to employ

their preferred modes when beginning such a project. Rather

than prescribing universal starting procedures, such an

emphasis permits the writing process to be initiated from

familiar perceptual ground.


In addition to the two guiding principles just mentioned,

individualized suggestions have also been devised by the authors to

direct writing instruction for each of the four basic functional

types. A brief description of that advice follows:









Sensing--Sensing students appear to write best when given

specific, detailed instructions; when following an organized (and

preferably familiar) format; when writing about the actual and

the practical; and when encouraged to . relax their need

for correctness . (p. 14) during the initial stages of

composition.


Initution--Intuitive students seem to write best when given

only broad, general directions; when writing quickly with one

idea inspiring the next; and when reminded to keep the product

simple and to the point.


Thinking--The best writing appears to emerge from thinking

students when they are allowed to organize their thoughts into a

clear and consistent plan; when given a logical rationale for the

writing project undertaken; and when focusing primarily on

content rather than anticipated audience reaction.


Feeling--Feeling students seem to produce the best writing

when personally involved in a topic; when incorporating past

experience; and when attempting to solicit audience reaction.


This informal research concludes on an encouraging note by

suggesting that, based on the professional observations of two

experienced instructors, . all types can and do write well"

(p. 15). Every functional preference contributes a unique (and

equally-valid) perspective to written expression, each providing









special insights or meaning to the reader. Though the capacity to

author "imaginative inner dialogues" (p. 15) may flourish most

naturally in IN persons, individuals with other type strengths also

compose highly-worthy written narrations which vividly portray the

outer world (E); are concise and direct (ST); contain personal warmth

and audience appreciation (F); are well-organized and timely (TJ); or

articulate original phrasing (NP).



Conclusion


A number of important considerations have been reviewed in this

chapter, each of which exerts a formative influence on the research

project presented here. A brief examination of the field of Future

Studies has revealed that the subject is an educational topic being

elevated in priority by the increasingly rapid rate of change occurring

in society and that studies in this portion of education must acknowledge

the complex ways in which projected images are created and the substantial

authority those images wield over both the present and future behavior

of individuals. A taxonomy of investigative efforts in this subfield

of education was described. From this system, one category--singularly-

held images of a personal future--was designated as particularly

relevant to this study. The concept of extended time frame was

identified from research as a psychological characteristic which

assists persons to effectively construct images of the future.

In the realm of assessment, the conceptual parameters and operational

definitions of the investigation were delineated. Stated in specific









terms, the temporal focus is limited to future time perspective; the

measurement variable appraised is temporal extension; and the evaluation

methodology chosen--written scenarios--constitutes a variation of

the story-telling technique commonly employed in social science

research to assess psychological dimensions. A review of experimental

studies analyzing the time-Jungian typology relationship uncovered

relatively few empirical inquiries germane to the present study and

little consensus of premise or similarity of outcome among those

research endeavors which exist. However, a sufficient number of

suggestive results emerged to indicate the presence of a temporal

framework intrinsically associated with psychological type. A final

segment of the chapter synthesized a composite list of learning-related

preferences ascribed to the various psychological type dimensions by

educators experienced in the classroom application of Jungian theory.

This compilation served as a constructive model for the instructional

treatment here being adapted and tested.













CHAPTER THREE
DESIGN AND PROCEDURES


Site and Population


The entire study sample population consisted of three hundred and

two male and female students from the seventh and eighth grades. The

subjects ranged from twelve to fourteen years old and were members of

ten mixed-grade classroom groupings from the Fort Clarke and Lincoln

Middle Schools in Gainesville, Florida. All procedures were enacted

during two consecutive weeks in May, 1980.


Instrumentation


Psychological Type Measurement


Psychological type, serving as the independent variable of the

current investigation, is assessed by the The Myers-Briggs Type Indicator

(Form F). As recounted by the originator, the guiding purpose of the

MBTI is to promote practical applications of Jung's theoretical typology

(Myers, 1962). Used extensively in a variety of settings for over two

decades, the MBTI is a one hundred and sixty-six item, forced choice,

self-report instrument. When administered, the MBTI identifies each

subject as one of sixteen possible psychological types about which a

consistent relationship to temporal orientation has been hypothesized

(Mann, Siegler and Osmond, 1972) and here is being tested.









Reliability

A summary of reliability data for the MBTI has been compiled by

McCaulley (1981) in which a variety of sources were utilized. To

measure internal consistency, a split-half method was employed in which

item subgroups for each of the four scales (El, SN, TF, JP) are divided

equally into X and Y portions and then compared. This procedure yields

split-half reliability coefficients. TABLE 3-1 illustrates those sample

populations cited.



TABLE 3-1
MYERS-BRIGGS TYPE INDICATOR
SPLIT-HALF RELIABILITY COEFFICIENTS



Functional Type Categories

El SN TF JP
P 9 SAMPLES OF
0 COLLEGE .76 -.88 .75 -.90 .68 -.86 .80 -.85
P STUDENTS
U 4 SAMPLES OF
L GIFTED
A HIGH SCHOOL .81 -.87 .76 -.86 .82 -.84 .75 -.94
T STUDENTS
I 3 SAMPLES OF
0 UNDERACHIEVING
N HIGH SCHOOL .60 -.80 .59 -.75 .17 -.57 .62 -.81
S STUDENTS

Note: Range scores shown.



Note the lower scores for subjects identified as underachieving high

school students--a condition which exemplifies McCaulley's conclusion

that most data . show higher reliabilities for older samples and

samples with higher levels of intelligence" (p. 316).










In addition to measures of internal consistency, McCaulley also

examined the test-retest reliability of the MBTI Form F. To enable

this inquiry, she combined and analyzed the continuous scores of ten

sample populations (N not reported). These composite data--information

which represents intervals ranging from five weeks to twenty-one months

between initial and follow-up administrations of the MBTI--were used to

generate a set of test-retest reliability coefficients. These coefficients

are shown in TABLE 3-2.



TABLE 3-2
MYERS-BRIGGS TYPE INDICATOR
TEST-RETEST RELIABILITY COEFFICIENTS



El SN TF JP

RANGE SCORES .73 -.83 .69 -.87 .56 -.82 .60 -.87

MEDIAN SCORES .80 .78 .70 .72

Note: MBTI continuous scores shown.



Results in this data group correspond with other findings cited by the

researcher in which the test-retest coefficient scores are somewhat

lower on the TF scale than those recorded in the other three

dimensions.

Rather than exclusively looking at the continuous scores of each

preference scale, another meaningful way for investigators to gauge

test-retest reliability in the case of the MBTI is to portray the

outcomes of the four functional categories as dichotomous. This method

was engaged by McCaulley when joining the data from nine sample populations









(N = 1,444). Information obtained by the aggregation reflects intervals

ranging from five weeks to six years between the two administrations of

the instrument. These test-retest reliability coefficient comparisons

are shown in TABLE 3-3.



TABLE 3-3
MYERS-BRIGGS TYPE INDICATOR
TEST-RETEST RELIABILITY COMPARISONS


ALL 4 SCALES SAME ON RETEST 31% 61%
AT LEAST 3 SCALES SAME ON RETEST 70% 88,
2 SCALES SAME ON RETEST 10% 22%
1 SCALE SAME ON RETEST 2% 7%
O SCALES SAME ON RETEST .07%

Note: Range of percentages for MBTI dichotomous results shown.



These figures indicate that only one subject in the entire sample

population registered different preferences during the retest on all

four of the dimensions contained in the MBTI.


Validity

Since the MBTI was designed to implement Jung's theory of psychological

types, a sufficient level of construct validity is desirable. A primary

method employed by researchers to establish such validity compared the

continuous scores of the four major dichotomous categories in the MBTI

to the scales of selected instruments with related intent. As explained

in the manual, "In so far as the type preferences are found to correlate,

in appropriate directions, with interests, values and needs ascertained

by other tests, . support is afforded for the validity of the theory

and the Indicator" (Myers, 1962, p. 21).









Perhaps the most important comparison between instruments in this

case matched the MBTI with The Gray-Wheelwright Psychological Type

Questionnaire. Although developed independently, the Gray-Wheelwright

test is also based on the ideas of Jung, and measures psychological

type. When adjusted for attenuation, the separate reliabilities

attained by both instruments were correlated and shown to be 1.08 for

EI, .97 far SN, and 1.22 for TF (the Gray-Wheelwright questionnaire

has no scale comparable to the JP dimension on the MBTI). These

coefficients led the author of the MBTI manual to conclude that the

two tests essentially measure the same phenomena.

In addition to the Gray-Wheelwright questionnaire, a number of

other instruments chosen for their particular relevance were correlated

with the MBTI scales. These assessment tools included The Strong

Vocational Interest Blank, The Allport-Vernon-Lindzey Study of Values,

The Edwards Personal Preference Schedule, The Personality Research

Inventory and The Brown-Holtzman Survey of Study Habits. Furthermore,

faculty ratings and grade point averages were considered in the

evaluation process. When summarizing the results of these mathematical

comparisons, McCaulley noted that . relationships found tend to

be in the directions predicted from type theory . and "the

selection of data . offers considerable evidence for the construct

validity of the MBTI . (1981, p. 331).


Temporal Extension


As the dependent variable of interest, temporal extension was

characterized in the second chapter. Employed in empirical investigations









conducted by Wallace (1956) and Squyres (1980) among others, the

operational definition of temporal extension refers to the range of

time included between the actual age of a subject and the most distant

event conceptualized by that individual when responding to experimental

cues. Thus, when measured in written scenarios, temporal extension is

determined by a procedure rather than by an instrument.

Specifically, the scenario-writing directions administered by the

researcher during the experiment require subjects to identify either

(1) their age at the time the story occurs or (2) the year in which

the story takes place. Depending on which of these two options are

chosen by each student, an evaluator consequently obtains temporal

extension scores by either (1) subtracting the current age of the

subject from the future age projected in the story or (2) subtracting

the current year (1980) from the future year projected in the story.

Using this range of years as a numerical indicator of temporal

extension offers distinct advantages. When time is viewed in this

manner, the dependent variable is continuous, thus preserving the

maximum amount of information and allowing for the greatest choice of

statistical analyses. The characteristics of the specific analyses

chosen are detailed later in the chapter.


Data Collection


Prior to the initiation of activities, the ten intact classrooms

participating in the study were divided into two groups of five classrooms

each. Chosen by random assignment, one group was designated the comparison

group while the other group was labeled the experimental group. Once









these categories were established, clearly defined procedures were

followed to ensure that, apart from exposure to an instructional

treatment, both groups encountered identical experiences.

In pursuit of procedural uniformity, a single experimenter (male,

thirty-one years old) conducted all activities relevant to the collection

of data using standardized directions, materials and durations.

Furthermore, faculty members at both the participating schools were

instructed not to inform their students as to the specific nature of

the investigative project. This measure was included to minimize any

preliminary contamination influential to the performance of student

subjects.

The steps enacted by both the comparison and the experimental

groups are comprised of two basic segments; the scenario-writing

process and the administration of the MBTI. In regard to the first of

these components, the process of writing scenarios began when class

members were seated. Following a brief introductory statement which

identified the researcher, all subjects were furnished with writing

supplies and told that, during the next hour, they would be writing a

short story about themselves.

Specific directions (fully detailed in APPENDIX A) continued to

explain that, in this short story, they were being asked to project

themselves forward in time to describe imagined events or conditions

in their future lives. Furthermore, care was taken by the administrator

to emphasize that individual students were free to determine how far

into the future they chose to project. A statement near the conclusion

of the allocated time asked subjects, if they had not already done so









in the story text, to identify in writing either their age at the time

the story occurs or the year in which the story takes place. At the

end of the hour, all papers were collected and the students were

thanked for their cooperation.

The second major procedural component common to both the comparison

and the experimental groups entailed completion of the MBTI. This

process also occurred in the standard classroom setting and was introduced

to all subjects in a ninety minute period scheduled not less than one

day and not more than three days following the session in which the

scenarios were produced. Although the information necessary for

proper execution of the MBTI is contained within each test booklet,

important guidelines discussed in those instructions were verbally

emphasized by the researcher. Administration of the MBTI took place

after the scenario-writing segment of the study so as to eliminate any

possible instrument-related interference reflected in the stories

composed.

As indicated, the procedures just described were performed in an

identical fashion for both the comparison and the experimental groups.

Prior to the scenario-writing portion of the investigation, however,

only subjects in the experimental group participated in a program of

educational activities which constitutes the instructional treatment

being assessed. The specific activities employed in this program are

contained in a commercial package of Future Studies materials developed

by the Minneapolis Special School District No. 1 (1978) and were

chosen for their more concrete nature when compared to the highly-abstract

essence of many classroom experiences in this portion of the curriculum.









Furthermore, the suggested administration of this educational treatment

was modified by the researcher to increase the appeal to students who

were not intuitive-dominant by emphasizing those instructional suggestions

contained in the second chapter which relate student typological

preference to instructional technique. In addition, the contents of

this program were informally field-tested with a group of elementary

and middle school teachers to confirm suitability for the intended

audience.

Briefly described, the educational intervention adapted for this

study consisted of three experiential exercises, each lasting approximately

thirty minutes. During the first exercise, entitled "Where Have You

Come From? Where Are You Going?" (p. 8), small groups of students

were provided with maps of the state and nation and subsequently asked

to show both where their families (including previous generations) had

lived in the past and where they currently lived. Those class members

who had not moved were requested to show where they had traveled. As

a concluding portion of the activity, students were instructed to tell

about the place where they would most like to live as an adult and

the reasons for that choice.

In the second exercise, labeled "My Time Line" (p. 6), students

were directed to create a list of occurences on a sheet of paper.

This list was to describe the most important personal events that have

happened during their lifetime. Following a small group discussion of

the past-oriented experiences, participants were told to create a

second list projecting as many possible personal events as they could

imagine which might be expected to happen in the future. After









discussing the second set of responses, the two lists were compared by

the students for similarities and differences.

During the third and concluding segment of the instructional

treatment, entitled "Planning Tree" (p. 5), students were asked to set

a goal representing something they would like to do or to become "in

the distant future." Participants then wrote this objective at the

top of a paper along with a description of their current situation in

a box at the bottom of that same sheet. Students were subsequently

asked to create a list, working either forward or backward in time,

which described the necessary steps to take between the existing

conditions and successful accomplishment of the projected goal. As a

final measure, the students made an estimate of how long it might take

to reach their objectives and compared the resultant time periods in

small discussion groups.



Design and Analyses


The two hypotheses in this study require different approaches to

data analysis. The first hypothesis is concerned with testing the

relationship between different sets of ranked scores.


Hypothesis One: When subjects are grouped by psychological type

(MBTI), there will be no significant relationship

between the predicted theoretical ranking (see

FIGURE 1-5) and the observed ranking of ordered mean

scores registered on an assessment of temporal

extension.









To test this hypothesis, the mean scores for the sixteen

psychological types are ranked (highest to lowest) by an analyst on

the dependent variable of temporal extension for each of three groups:

(1) the comparison group (2) the experimental group and (3) the entire

group (the comparison and experimental groups combined). These

observed rankings are then mathematically compared to the theoretical

order of performance predicted earlier in the study (see FIGURE 1-5)

to establish their level of agreement.

When an examination of the correlation between two sets of

rank-ordered scores is desired, Spearman's Rank-Order Correlation is

the appropriate procedure to engage (McCall, 1975). A valid calculation

of this statistical indicator requires that (1) random sampling or

assignment be employed in the experiment and (2) the dependent variable

measurement be expressed as ordinal data. Both these conditions are

satisfied in the current investigation.

The determination of this correlation entails computing the

difference between the rankings attributed to each of the psychological

types and then-squaring these differences. The sum of the squared

differences in rank and N (where N equals the number of pairs of

observations) are applied in the manner shown in FIGURE 3-1.


















r =1- ^


N -N


FIGURE 3-1
SPEARMAN'S RANK-ORDER CORRELATION


To determine significance, the evaluator compares the observed

value of the correlation obtained by the prescribed method to the

required critical value. When the observed value is greater than the

appropriate critical value, the first hypothesis may be rejected. If

so, one may conclude that the derived correlation reveals a nonzero

relationship.

The second hypothesis examines the relationship between psychological

type and exposure to an instructional treatment as reflected by time-

indicative performance scores.


Hypothesis Two: As measured by the assessment of temporal extension,

subjects grouped by psychological type (MBTI) in the

experimental group will exhibit no significant

difference in mean scores following instructional

treatment exposure when compared to subjects of the

same psychological type in the comparison group who

received no educational intervention.









The interplay between these variables (psychological type and

instructional treatment) is effectively illuminated by a two-factor

analysis of variance design. In this scheme, psychological type and

instructional treatment are both considered factors, each comprised of

different divisions or levels. In the case of instructional treatment

(factor A), the number of levels is equal to two, representing the

presence or absence of the educational intervention. Where psychological

type (factor B) is concerned, a portion of the analysis also utilizes

two levels. Specifically, an evaluation of the major dichotomous

subscales contained in the MBTI (EI; SN; TF; JP) constitutes a series

of two-level comparisons. An example of this arrangement is shown for

the extraversion-introversion dichotomy in FIGURE 3-2.


FACTOR B
(PSYCHOLOGICAL TYPE VARIABLE)

LEVEL B1 LEVEL B2
EXTRAVERSION (E) INTROVERSION (I)


FACTOR A
(INSTRUCTIONAL
TREATMENT
VARIABLE)


FIGURE 3-2
TWO-FACTOR ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE:
SAMPLE TWO-LEVEL COMPARISON


LEVEL Al SCORES DF SCORES OF
COMPARISON EXTRAVERTS INTROVERTS
GROUP IN THE IN THE
(NO TREATMENT) COMPARISON COMPARISON
EXPOSURE GROUP GROUP


LEVEL A2 SCORES OF SCORES OF
EXPERIMENTAL EXTRAVERTS INTROVERTS
GROUP IN THE ON THE
(TREATMENT) EXPERIMENTAL EXPERIMENTAL
EXPOSURE GROUP GROUP









From the example employed, two main effects can be statistically

explored in which the variation of means for one factor is considered

without regard for the other factor. First, the significant difference

between levels of factor A is considered: Do subjects in the experimental

group perform better than those in the comparison group? Similarly,

the difference between levels of factor B is examined for significance:

Do extraverted subjects perform better than those who are introverted?

In addition to main effects, the two-way analysis of variance

design allows for the characterization of interaction effects. As

reported by McCall (1975), "An interaction occurs when the effect for

a factor is different for different levels of the other factor" (p.

269). When applied to the El example, a diagnosis of this nature

asks: Is there an interaction between the psychological type of the

subject and the treatment exposure received such that the impact of

the instructional intervention (or lack of intervention) is different

for extraverts than for introverts?

As mentioned, a series of two-level comparisons is applied to the

MBTI's four major subscales (EI; SN; TF; JP) as an initial objective

of the second hypothesis. However, since the preferences measured by

those scales typically join and operate in concert within the individual,

a battery of four-level mathematical comparisons for factor B (psychological

type) is also administered within the two-way analysis of variance

design to illustrate those combined influences. In this respect, five

sets of four-level comparisons for factor B are possible:










(1) 13
IP
EP
EJ


(2) ST
SF
NF
NT


An example of this four-level

main and interaction effects,


(3) SJ (4)
SP
NP
NJ

arrangement, which

is shown in FIGURE


(5) IN
EN
IS
ES

reveals both


FACTOR B
(PSYCHOLOGICAL TYPE VARIABLE)


FACTOR A
(INSTRUCTIONAL
TREATMENT
VARIABLE)


LEVEL 81
IJ


LEVEL Al SCORES OF SCORES OF SCORES OF SCORES OF
COMPARISON INTROVERTED INTROVERTED EXTRAVERTED EXTRAVERTED
GROUP JUDGERS IN PERCEIVERS IN PERCEIVERS IN JUDGERS IN
(NO TREATMENT) THE COMPARISON THE COMPARISON THE COMPARISON THE COMPARISON
EXPOSURE GROUP GROUP GROUP GROUP
LEVEL A2 SCORES OF SCORES OF SCORES OF SCORES OF
EXPERIMENTAL INTROVERTED INTROVERTED EXTRAVERIED EXTRAVERTED
GROUP JUDGERS IN PERCEIVERS IN PERCEIVERS IN JUDGERS IN
(TREATMENT) THE EXPERIMENTAL THE EXPERIMENTAL THE EXPERIMENTAL THE EXPERIMENTAL
EXPOSURE GROUP GROUP GROUP GROUP


FIGURE 3-3
TWO-FACTOR ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE:
SAMPLE FOUR-LEVEL COMPARISON


To apply the two-factor analysis of variance design in an appropriate

manner, the experiment analyzed must satisfactorily comply with a

number of assumptions: (1) the subjects are randomly and independently

sampled; (2) the groups are independent; (3) the population distributions

of each group are normal and have equal variances; (4) the factors are

fixed, and there is at least one observation per group. As required,

conditions of the current investigation sufficiently conform to these

established rules.

In cases where multiple comparison tests are employed, a posteriori

analyses are sometimes required as an evaluation subsequent to the


LEVEL B2
IP


LEVEL B3
EP


LEVEL B4
EJ









analysis of variance process when the null hypothesis of non-significance

is rejected. These statistical procedures are engaged to identify the

specific source of significant difference from among the various

combinations of group mean scores when the precise origin of that

variance is unclear. When an a posteriori assessment is used in this

inquiry, Tukey's HSD test (Kirk, 1968) is the method applied.

As mentioned in the first chapter, a critical feature of Jung's

typology relates to the unequal distribution of the sixteen psychological

types within the general population (see FIGURE 1-5). For this

reason, authors familiar with experimental applications of the MBTI

(Kainz, 1983) suggest that, when psychological type is a variable of

interest within a research study, comparisons be made to determine

whether the groups being evaluated differ in their relative dispersion

of psychological type. For this reason, two preliminary analyses are

employed (1) to identify any discrepancies between the total sample

population and the general population in regard to psychological type

distribution which may constitute possible sources of influence upon

the mean scores of subjects and (2) to illuminate any significant

differences between the psychological type distributions of sample

subgroups compared in the project which may have an impact upon the

results. The Chi-Square test and Fisher's Exact Probability test

(McCall, 1975) are the methods employed in this study to gauge the

degree of similarity among the psychological type proportions of

relevant sample groups.









Another, more informal, preliminary comparison presented in the

next chapter depicts the sex, age and race composition of the sample

groups under study. Since a review of the literature revealed conflicting

indications as to the relative impact of these variables upon individual

temporal orientation, the statistical design devised for this experiment

does not examine these characteristics for significant differences.

However, a display of these distinguishing elements and the respective

mean scores of their composite classifications are offered prior to

discussing the analysis of variance results. This information is

provided to illuminate any obvious discrepancies in performance

relative to sex, age and race distinctions which might tentatively

temper the interpretation of outcomes in this study or direct the

formulation of similar investigations in the future.













CHAPTER FOUR
RESULTS


Preliminary Considerations


Sex, Age and Race Composition: Introduction


The initial examination of data is concerned with informally

considering several of the major concomitant variables which accompany

psychological type in this study and act as potential sources of

influence upon the results generated. The purpose of this preliminary

overview is to detect (1) any marked imbalance in the make-up of the

sample groups regarding sex, age and race which would suggest the

operation of an uncontrolled selection bias or (2) any striking

difference in performance associated with these characteristics which

would point to a relationship with temporal extension. Should substantial

evidence surface to indicate either of these conditions, the face

validity of this experiment would be rendered suspect.



Sex, Age and Race Composition: Display of Data


The concomitant traits of sex, age and race are illustrated in

TABLE 4-1 through TABLE 4-5.









TABLE 4-1
DISTRIBUTION OF VARIABLES
FOR ENTIRE GROUP (N=302)


VARIABLE


SAMPLE GROUP:
COMPARISON GROUP
EXPERIMENTAL GROUP


SEX:
MALE
FEMALE


FREQUENCY


AGE:
12 YEARS
13 YEARS
14 YEARS


RACE:
WHITE
BLACK
OTHER


TABLE 4-2
MEAN TEMPORAL EXTENSION SCORES BY
RACE FOR THE COMPARISON, EXPERIMENTAL


SEX, AGE AND
AND ENTIRE GROUPS


SEX
MALE FEMALE

COMPARISON B.58 7.85
GROUP (74) (74)

EXPERIMENTAL 21.78 22.24
GROUP (76) (78)
ENTIRE 15.27 15.23
GROUP (150) (152)


AGE
12 13


7.35 8.87 7.78
(34) (72) (42)


19.25
(27)


23.05 21.58
(88) (39)


12.62 16.67 14.43
(61) (160) (B1)


Note: Number of subjects shown in parentheses.


PERCENT


100.00
49.01
50.99


100.00
49.67
50.33


100.00
20.20
52.98
26.82


100.00
53.97
46.03
00.00










TABLE 4-3
COMPARISON GROUP (N=148) SEX, AGE AND RACE COMPOSITION
BY PSYCHOLOGICAL TYPE




PSYCHOLOGICAL SEX AGE RACE
TYPE MALE FEMALE 12 13 14 WHITE BLACK


10 9 5 8 6 12 7
ESTJ (52.6) (47.4) (26.3) (42.1) (31.6) (63.2) (36.8)

5 4 2 4 3 6 3
ESTP (55.6) (44.4) (22.2) (44.4) (33.3) (66.7) (33.3)

9 B 4 B 5 12 5
ESFJ (52.9) (47.1) (23.5) (47.1) (29.4) (70.6) (29.4)

7 6 2 7 4 9 4
ESFP (53.9) (46.2) (15.4) (53.9) (308) (69.2) (30.8)

3 2 1 3 1 4 1
ENTJ (60.0) (40.0) (20.0) (60.0) (20.0) (80.0) (20.0)

3 3 1 3 2 4 2
ENTP (50.0) (50.0) (16.7) (50.0) (33.3) (66.7) (33.3)

2 4 1 3 2 4 2
ENFJ (33.3) (66.7) (16.7) (50.0) (33.3) (66.7) (33.3)

6 7 4 5 4 9 4
ENFP (46.2) (53.9) (30.8) (38.5) (30.8) (69.2) (30.8)

6 6 3 6 3 6 6
IST3 (50.0) (50.0) (25.0) (50.0) (25.0) (50.0) (50.0)

5 3 3 4 1 4 4
ISTP (62.5) (37.5) (37.5) (50.0) (12.5) (50.0) (50.0)

4 5 2 5 2 5 4
ISFJ (44.4) (55.6) (22.2) (55.6) (22.2) (55.6) (44.4)

3 6 1 5 3 5 4
ISFP (33.3) (66.7) (11.1) (55.6) (33.3) (55.6) (44.4)

3 2 1 3 1 2 3
INT3 (60.0) (40.0) (20.0) (60.0) (20.0) (40.0) (60.0)

3 2 1 2 2 2 3
INTP (60.0) (40.0) (20.0) (40.0) (40.0) (40.0) (60.0)

2 2 1 2 1 3 1
INFJ (50.0) (50.0) (25.0) (50.0) (25.0) (75.0) (25.0)

3 5 2 4 2 4 4
INFP (37.5) (62.5) (25.0) (50.0) (25.0) (50.0) (50.0)


Note: Percentages shown in parentheses (rounded to nearest tenth).










TABLE 4-4
EXPERIMENTAL GROUP (N=154) SEX, AGE AND RACE COMPOSITION
BY PSYCHOLOGICAL TYPE




PSYCHOLOGICAL SEX AGE RACE
TYPE MALE FEMALE 12 13 14 WHITE BLACK


10 12 3 13 6 9 13
EST3 (45.5) (54.5) (13.6) (59.1) (27.3) (40.9) (49.1)

4 6 2 6 2 6 4
ESTP (40.0) (60.0) (20.0) (60.0) (20.0) (60.0) (40.0)

10 11 6 10 5 9 12
ESFJ (47.6) (52.4) (28.6) (47.6) (33.3) (42.9) (47.1)

B 7 3 7 5 7 8
ESFP (53.3) (46.7) (20.0) (46.7) (33.3) (46.7) (53.3)

3 3 1 4 1 3 3
ENT3 (50.0) (50.0) (16.7) (66.7) (16.7) (50.0) (50.0)

4 3 1 4 2 3 4
ENTP (57.1) (42.9) (14.3) (57.1) (28.6) (42.9) (57.1)

3 4 1 5 1 3 4
ENFJ (42.9) (57.1) (14.3) (71.4) (14.3) (42.9) (57.1)

6 4 2 7 2 5 6
ENFP (54.5) (57.1) (18.2) (63.6) (18.2) (45.5) (54.5)

5 5 2 5 3 5 5
ISTJ (50.0) (50.0) (20.0) (50.0) (30.0) (50.0) (50.0)

3 4 1 4 2 4 3
ISTP (42.9) (57.1) (14.3) (57.1) (28.6) (57.1) (42.9)

6 5 2 6 3 5 6
ISF3 (54.5) (45.5) (18.2) (54.5) (27.3) (45.5) (54.5)

4 3 1 4 2 3 4
ISFP (57.1) (42.9) (14.3) (57.1) (28.6) (42.9) (57.1)

1 3 0 3 1 2 2
INTJ (25.0) (75.0) ( 0.0) (75.0) (25.0) (50.0) (50.0)

5 2 1 3 3 3 4
INTP (71.4) (28.6) (14.3) (42.9) (42.9) (42.9) (57.1)

1 2 1 2 0 1 2
INF3 (33.3) (66.7) (33.3) (66.7) (0.0) (33.3) (66.7)

3 3 0 5 1 4 2
INFP (50.0) (50.0) ( 0.0) (83.3) (16.7) (66.7) (33.3)


Note: Percentages shown in parentheses (rounded to nearest tenth).










TABLE 4-5
ENTIRE GROUP (N=302) SEX, AGE AND RACE COMPOSITION
BY PSYCHOLOGICAL TYPE



PSYCHOLOGICAL SEX AGE RACE
TYPE MALE FEMALE 12 13 14 WHITE BLACK


2D 21 8 21 12 21 20
ESTJ (48.8) (51.2) (19.5) (51.2) (29.3) (51.2) (48.8)

9 10 4 10 5 12 7
ESTP (47.4) (52.6) (21.1) (52.6) (26.3) (63.2) (36.8)

19 19 10 18 10 21 17
ESFJ (50.0) (50.0) (26.3) (47.4) (26.3) (55.3) (44.7)

15 13 5 14 9 16 12
ESFP (53.6) (46.4) (17.9) (50.0) (32.1) (57.1) (42.9)

6 5 2 7 2 7 4
ENT3 (54.6) (45.5) (18.2) (63.6) (18.2) (63.6) (36.4)

7 6 2 7 4 7 6
ENTP (53.9) (46.2) (15.4) (53.9) (30.8) (53.9) (46.2)

5 8 2 8 3 7 6
ENFJ (38.5) (61.5) (15.4) (61.5) (23.1) (53.9) (46.2)

12 12 6 12 6 14 10
ENFP (50.0) (50.0) (25.0) (50.0) (25.0) (58.3) (41.7)

11 11 5 11 6 11 11
ISTJ (50.0) (50.0) (22.7) (50.0) (22.7) (50.0) (50.0)

8 7 4 8 3 8 7
ISTP (53.3) (46.7) (26.7) (53.3) (20.0) (53.3) (46.7)

10 10 4 11 5 10 10
ISF3 (50.0) (50.0) (20.0) (55.0) (29.0) (50.0) (50.0)

7 9 2 9 5 8 8
ISFP (43.8) (56.3) (12.5) (56.3) (31.3) (50.0) (50.0)

4 5 1 6 2 4 5
INTJ (44.4) (55.6) (11.1) (66.7) (22.2) (44.4) (55.6)

8 4 2 5 5 5 7
INTP (66.7) (33.3) (16.7) (41.7) (41.7) (41.7) (58.3)

3 4 2 4 1 4 3
INFJ (42.9) (57.1) (28.6) (57.1) (14.3) (57.1) (42.9)

6 8 2 9 3 B 6
INFP (42.9) (57.1) (14.3) (64.3) (21.4) (57.1) (42.9)


Note: Percentages shown in parentheses (rounded to nearest tenth).









Sex, Age and Race Composition: Summary of Results


When considering the distribution of selected variables in the

entire group, more subjects were in the experimental group (N=154)

than in the comparison group (N=148); more subjects were female

(N=152) than male (N=150); more subjects were 13 years old (N=159)

than 12 years old (N=61) and than 14 years old (N=32); and more

subjects were white (N=163) than black (N=139).

When the distribution of selected variables in the entire group

was compared by psychological type, the greatest difference associated

with sex was in the INTP category, which had more males (N=8) than

females (N=4); the greatest difference associated with age was in the

ESTJ category, which had more 13 year olds (N=21) than 12 year olds

(N=8) and than 14 year olds (N=12); and the greatest difference

associated with race was in the ESTP category, which had more whites

(N=12) than blacks (N=7).

When evaluating the mean temporal extension scores attributed to

those variables in the sample groups, the largest difference related

to sex was in the comparison group, where males (8.58) scored .73

years higher than females (7.85); the largest difference related to

age was in the entire group, where 13 year olds (16.67) scored 4.05

years higher than 12 year olds (12.62); and the largest difference

related to race was in the experimental group, where whites (22.98)

scored 1.81 years higher than blacks (21.17).

Upon review of these data, differences in the performance of

subjects relative to the characteristics of sex, age and race do not









appear to be of sufficient magnitude to jeopardize the face validity

of this study.



Psychological Type Distribution Comparisons: Introduction


Another, more formal preliminary consideration of this chapter

entails a comparison of the distribution of psychological type among

the various groups involved in the study. This assessment is necessary

to determine if any significant difference in typological composition

exists in these sample populations which might account for a portion

of the variance in the mean scores later analyzed.

The first of these evaluations, shown in TABLE 4-6, compares the

entire group population (N=302) to a large high school population

(N=9,320) identified by McCaulley (1978) which, for the purpose of

this study, is regarded as representing the dispersion of psychological

type in the general population. In this table, the entire group

serves as the sample population whose number and percentage of subjects

in each type category are displayed. The large high school group,

whose number and percentage of subjects are given in APPENDIX B, acts

as the base population to which the sample population is compared.

The creation of an index figure (labeled I in TABLE 4-6) is a

method employed in research (Kainz, 1976) to compare the psychological

type proportions of sample groups. This index figure reflects the

ratio of the observed frequency in the sample population to the

frequency expected from the base population data. Thus, for each of

the sixteen psychological type classifications, an index score of more




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