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An analysis of the migrant population of Bogotá, Colombia
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 Material Information
Title: An analysis of the migrant population of Bogotá, Colombia
Physical Description: xiv, 156 leaves. : illus. ; 28 cm.
Language: English
Creator: Pérez, Lisandro
Publication Date: 1974
Copyright Date: 1974
 Subjects
Subjects / Keywords: Bogotá (Colombia) -- Population   ( lcsh )
Rural-urban migration -- Colombia -- Bogotá metropolitan area   ( lcsh )
Sociology thesis Ph. D   ( lcsh )
Dissertations, Academic -- Sociology -- UF   ( lcsh )
Genre: bibliography   ( marcgt )
non-fiction   ( marcgt )
 Notes
Thesis: Thesis -- University of Florida.
Bibliography: Bibliography: leaves 148-155.
Statement of Responsibility: by Lisandro Pérez.
General Note: Typescript.
General Note: Vita.
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Source Institution: University of Florida
Holding Location: University of Florida
Rights Management: All rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier: alephbibnum - 000580876
oclc - 14092711
notis - ADA8981
System ID: UF00098348:00001

Full Text
















AN ANALYSIS OF THE MIGRANT POPULATION
OF BOGOTA, COLOMBIA







By



LISANDRO PEREZ


A DISSERTATION PRESENTED TO THE GRADUATE COUNCIL OF
THE UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA
IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE
DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY



UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA


1974



























UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA
3 262 08666 473 6 11 II lll
3 1262 08666 473 6






























Copyright by
Lisandro Perez
1974
































Dedicated to my parents













ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS


In most of Hispanic America, a padrino is a person who

unselfishly accepts responsibility from almost the moment of

birth for an infant's well-being, untiringly devoting his

time to guiding the child to the correct path. He constantly

serves as advisor, counselor, and friend, imparting to the

young person the invaluable lessons of his much greater knowl-

edge and experience. Few students when they enter graduate

school in their diapers are fortunate enough to have a true

padrino in the academic setting. I did, and I wish to take

this opportunity to thank Dr. T. Lynn Smith, my padrino

throughout my thus far short academic career.

Although officially there is only one padrino, others

have taken an interest in my graduate training and have also

acted as "godfathers." Dr. Gerald R. Leslie runs a depart-

ment that provided an excellent atmosphere for graduate study

and his office door was always open. Drs. Joseph S. Vandiver,

Benjamin L. Gorman, Raymond E. Crist, and Lyle McAlister have

contributed greatly to my academic development and I thank

them for serving on my committee.

The research for this dissertation as well as my last

two years in graduate school were made financially possible

by a grant from the Tinker Foundation for the establishment









of a Latin American Demography Program in the Center for

Latin American Studies of the University of Florida. I thank

the Foundation as well as the Director of the Center, Dr.

William E. Carter, for their generous support.

Many persons helped me during my stay in Bogota. The

first person I have to thank in this connection is my friend

Dr. Juan Figueras of the Instituto Colombiano Agropecuario

and his entire family for helping to make my trip such a

pleasant experience. The assistance of Dr. Carlos Escalante

Angulo of the Universidad Nacional was invaluable. I also

wish to express my gratitude to Dr. Jesus Melgarejo Rey, the

head of the Census Division of the Departamento Administra-

tivo Nacional de Estadistica during the 1951 and 1964 enumer-

ations for granting me a lengthy interview in which he gra-

ciously answered my many tedious queries. A very special

thanks to the staff of the DANE Library without whose assis-

tance I would never have found the unpublished tabulations

of the 1964 census that proved to be such a valuable data

source. The efficiency of the personnel of the Luis Angel

Arango Library in Bogota made it possible to secure many use-

ful and rare publications.

I wish to thank the Interlibrary Loan Department of the

University of Florida Library. A fellow graduate student,

Mr. J. Bruce Minore, provided helpful tips on the preparation

of the illustrative materials. Mrs. Elizabeth Godey very

competently typed the final manuscript.











Aside from all these academic acknowledgements, I wish

to thank my wife, Anamaria, who made possible this effort

through her support in countless little ways.


_ _____















TABLE OF CONTENTS


Page


ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS . .

LIST OF TABLES .

LIST OF FIGURES .

ABSTRACT . . . .


CHAPTER


I INTRODUCTION .


Objectives . . . .
Scope . . . . . .
Sources of Data . . .
Methodology . . . .
Significance of the Study .
Order of Presentation . .

II SURVEY OF THE LITERATURE . .

The Literature on Migration
The Literature on Migration
America . . . . .


to Urban Areas
in Latin


The Literature on Internal Migration in
Colombia . . . . .
The Literature on Migration to Bogota .

III THE ROLE OF MIGRATION IN THE GROWTH
OF BOGOTA . . . . . . . .

Duration-of-Residence Analysis . .
The Residual Approach . . . . .
The National-Growth-Rate Method . .
Summary . . . . . . . .

IV THE GEOGRAPHIC AND RESIDENTIAL ORIGINS
OF THE MIGRANTS TO BOGOTA . . . .

Origins by Place of Birth . . . .
Origins by Last Previous Place of
Residence . . . . . . .
Summary . . . . . . . .


. . 56

. . 58
64
. 72
. . 76


. . 79

. . 80

. . 90
. . 102


vii


. . . . . . . . iv

S . . . . . . . ix

. . . . . . . . x i

. . . . . . . . xii


. . . . . . . . 1


. . .


I j I









TABLE OF CONTENTS Continued

Page
CHAPTER

V THE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE MIGRANTS . . . 104

Age and Sex . . . . . . . .. . 105
Economic Characteristics . . . . 123
Summary ....... . . . . . 137

VI SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS . . .... . . 139

APPENDIX . . .... .. . . . . . . . 144

BIBLIOGRAPHY . . .... .. . . . . . . 148

BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH . . . . . . . . .. 156


viii














LIST OF TABLES


Table Page

1 Duration of Residence in Bogota, D.E., of
the Population Not Born There, 1964 . . .. .59

2 Estimated Net Migration of the Population
of Bogota, D.E., by Age, 1951 to 1964 . .. 70

3 Median Number of Years of Residence in
Bogota of the Migrant Population, by
Departamento of Last Previous Residence, 1964 101

4 Percentages of the Migrant and Non-Migrant
Populations of Bogota, D.E., in Four Broad
Age Groups, by Sex, 1964 . . . . .. 107

5 The Migrant and Non-Migrant Populations of
Bogota, D.E., by Age and Sex, 1964 . . . 112

6 Ratio of Migrants to Non-Migrants in
Bogota, D.E., by Age and Sex, 1964 ...... 113

7 Sex Ratios of the Migrant Population of
Bogota, D.E., by Departamento of Birth, 1964 . 121

8 Percentages of the Migrants and Non-Migrants
in Bogota, D.E., 15 to 44 Years of Age Who
Were Economically Active and Economically
Inactive, by Sex, 1964 . . . . ... .127

9 Economically-Active Population 15 to 44
Years of Age in Ten Major Occupational
Groups, Migrants and Non-Migrants, Bogota,
D.E., 1964 . . . . . . . . . 129

10 Economically-Active Population 15 to 64
Years of Age in Nine Major Industry Groups,
Migrants and Non-Migrants, Bogota, D.E., 1964 134

11 Data Used in the Preparation of Figure 1:
The Migrant Population of Bogota, D.E., by
Departamento of Birth and by Sex, 1964 . . 144


______









LIST OF TABLES Continued


Table Page

12 Data Used in the Preparation of Figure 2:
The Population of Colombia by Departamento
of Birth and Migration Status, 1964 . . .. .145

13 Data Used in the Preparation of Figure 3:
Last Previous Place of Residence of the
Migrant Population of Bogota, D.E., by
Residence and Sex, 1964 . . . . . .. 147














LIST OF FIGURES


Figure Page

1 The migrant population of Bogota, D.E., by
departamento of birth and by sex, 1964 . 82

2 The population of Colombia by departamento
of birth and migration status, 1964 . . 88

3 Last previous place of residence of the
migrant population of Bogota, D.E., by
residence and sex, 1964 . . . . . .. 91

4 A comparison of the age-sex pyramids for the
migrant and non-migrant populations of
Bogota, D.E., 1964 . . . . . . .. 110

5 Indexes showing the extent to which each age
group in the population of Bogota, D.E.,
contained more or less than its pro rata
share of those of corresponding age in the
total population of Colombia, 1964 . . .. 118

6 Percentages of the economically-active
population aged 15 to 44 in ten major
occupational groups, migrants and non-
migrants, by sex, Bogota, D.E., 1964 . . .. .131

7 Percentages of the economically-active
population aged 15 to 64 in nine major
industry groups, migrants and non-
migrants, by sex, Bogota, D.E., 1964 . . .. 136









Abstract of Dissertation Presented to the Graduate Council
of the University of Florida in Partial Fulfillment of the
Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy


AN ANALYSIS OF THE MIGRANT POPULATION
OF BOGOTA, COLOMBIA


By

Lisandro P6rez

August, 1974


Chairman: T. Lynn Smith, Ph.D.
Major Department: Sociology


Migration to large urban centers has been labeled the

single most important demographic phenomenon of contemporary

Latin America. This dissertation is a study of the magnitude,

origins, composition, and significance of the movement of

persons to one of the area's largest metropolises: Bogota,

the capital of Colombia. Specifically, the analysis centers

around the following three dimensions of the topic: (1) the

contribution of migration to the growth of Bogota's popula-

tion; (2) the geographic and residential origins of the popu-

lation residing in but not born in Colombia's capital; and

(3) the selectivity of the migration to Bogota and its impact

on the demographic structure of the city.

The existence among the 1964 census reports of a separate

volume for the Distrito Especial de Bogota means that all the

tabulations available for each of the major subdivisions of the

nation are also available for the capital. This presents a

uniquely rich source of data, comparable with,or better chan,that


xii









available for any metropolitan area in Latin America. Of

particular importance are the numerous tables the report

offers exclusively on the migrant population of the city. In

the process of ascertaining the contribution of migration to

the growth of Bogota, two techniques, duration-of-residence

analysis and the census-survival-rate method, yielded esti-

mates that were considered unreliable and were consequently

discarded. Through the use of the vital-statistics method

it was estimated that net migration was responsible for 50.5

percent of the growth of Bogota from 1951 to 1964. Since the

national-growth-rate method is a measure that includes child-

ren of migrants born in Bogota in its estimate of the total

impact of migration, its application to the data resulted in

a figure that was equal to 60 percent of the growth of the

city from 1951 to 1964.

Cartographic techniques are used freely in order to

reach certain conclusions about the geographic and residential

origins of the migrant population of Colombia's capital. It

was found that migrants originated primarily in the areas

adjacent to Bogota, with the contribution of each departa-

mento showing an inverse relationship to distance. The data

on last previous place of residence permitted an analysis of

the residential background of the migrants. An overwhelming

majority came from urban areas. All the evidence pointed to

an unusually high incidence of migration directly from the

migrants' places of birth.


xiii









The age, sex, and economic characteristics of the

migrants are contrasted with those of the population that is

native to the area of destination in order to discern some

of the differentials in the migration to the city. As

expected, in 1964 migrants were heavily concentrated in the

prime productive ages, from about 15 to 29. In the migrant

population females outnumbered males in every age group.

Numerous observations are made in regard to the occupational

and industrial compositions of the migrant population, but

perhaps the most significant one concerns the importance of

the service occupations among the city's migrants, particularly

females.

Although most of the findings confirmed long-standing

generalizations in the field, some deviated from expected

patterns, suggesting various hypotheses that can be submitted

to further investigation. The censuses of Latin America

taken in 1970 may provide the types of data that are more ade-

quate for studying in even more depth the phenomenon of migra-

tion to the urban areas of that region of the world.


xiv


I













CHAPTER I

INTRODUCTION


More than three centuries ago, in 1662, John Graunt, in

his Natural and Political Observations Mentioned in the

following Index and made upon the Bills of Mortality, con-

cluded from data on christenings and burial permits that

there was a substantial migration of persons taking place

from the countryside to the city of London.1 The demographic

phenomenon observed by Graunt was to be, explicitly or im-

plicitly, a central theme of the European and American pio-

neers in sociology in the latter part of the nineteenth cen-

tury and in the early decades of this century. The early

sociological literature echoes a concern over the rapid

changes accompanying the rise of the urban-industrial order

in Europe and North America.2 Central to this concern, of

course, is the rapid concentration of population in urban



Walter F. Willcox, ed., Natural and Political Observa-
tions made upon the Bills of Mortality by John Graunt
(Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins University Press, l39)T, p. 12.

The most obvious manifestations of this concern in the
early sociological literature are the numerous comparisons
made between the social organizations of isolated rural com-
munities and large industrial centers. The best examples are
Durkheim's two contrasting bases of social solidarity,
mechanic and organic, and Tonnies' Gemeinschaft and Gesell-
schaft societal forms.









centers which resulted from and in turn caused numerous

structural changes in Western society.

While it is generally agreed that the peak of this mi-

gration process has long since passed in Western industrial

nations, the regions of the world that are less developed

are just now experiencing the crest of this movement. Migra-

tion to metropolitan areas has been labeled as the most sig-

nificant single demographic phenomenon of contemporary Latin

America.3 This study examines the process of migration to

one of that region's most important metropolises: Bogota,

the capital of Colombia.


Objectives


The main concern of this study is to gain an understand-

ing of the magnitude, origins, composition, and significance

of the movement of persons to Bogota. Specifically, the

analysis centers around the following three dimensions of the

topic: (1) the contribution of migration to the growth of

Bogota's population; (2) the geographic and residential ori-

gins of the population residing in but not born in Colombia's

capital; and (3) the selectivity of the migration to Bogota

and its impact on the demographic structure of the city. The

following chapter demonstrates that research on those three

specific areas has traditionally been regarded as crucial to


T. Lynn Smith, Studies of Latin American Societies
(Garden City: Doubleday and Company, 1970), p. 102.








an understanding of migration to urban areas. Consequently,

the purpose here is not only to gain insight into the Colom-

bian situation, but also to test some long-standing general-

izations in the field.


Scope


The particular population studied here can be defined

as the inhabitants of Bogota at the time of the 1964 census

who were born outside the city. In terms of time, therefore,

the analysis includes all those persons who migrated to

Bogota any time before the 1964 census was taken and who

stayed and survived to be enumerated in it.

In addition to specifying the time dimension of the

study, it is well to clarify the geographic area being ana-

lyzed. Bogota, the political and administrative center of

Colombia, is also not far from the geographic center of the

nation. Founded in 1538 by Gonzalo Jiminez de Quesada, the

city is located in the Sabana de Bogota, a broad plateau

8,600 feet above sea level in the Eastern Andean Range.

In studies where a city constitutes the unit under study,

there are usually severe problems defining the boundaries of

the area, primarily because of the usual discrepancy between

the legal and the functional limits of a city. Usually data

are available only for the former, and not for the more

extended area which a city actually covers.









In the case of Bogota, such problems are at a minimum.

In recognition of the fact that the capital had vastly out-

grown its legal boundaries and that a more extensive civil-

administrative division was clearly necessary to govern the

entire city, the government of Colombia in 1955 created the

Special District of Bogota. Before the creation of the Dis-

trito Especial, Bogota was a municipio (or county-like

entity) in the departamento of Cundinamarca. The new Dis-

trito contains not only the municipio of the capital, but

also six other municipios of Cundinamarca which were consid-

ered to be in the Bogota metropolitan area: Usaquen, Fonti-

b6n, Suba, Bosa, Engativa, and Usme. If a parallel can be

drawn with the concepts in the United States Census of Popu-

lation, it is that the Distrito Especial de Bogoti more

closely resembles a Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area

than an Urbanized Area. This is so because the Distrito

contains an extensive and sparsely populated rural area, most

of which is in the municipio of Usme to the south. It is

therefore not strictly limited to the central city and its

"urban fringe." "The main point here, however, is that the

creation of this new administrative (and statistical) dis-

trict guarantees a relatively close correspondence between

what is officially defined as the city of Bogota and what is

in effect the Bogota metropolitan area.








Sources of Data


The 1964 census is the latest enumeration of the popula-

tion of Colombia for which data are presently available. The

census report, released only recently, is composed of nine-

teen volumes: a national summary, one for each departamento

(seventeen), and one for the Distrito Especial de Bogota.

The existence of a separate volume for the Distrito Especial

means that all the tabulations available for each of the

major subdivisions of the nation are also available for the

city of Bogota. This presents a uniquely rich source of data,

comparable or better than that available for any metropolitan

area in Latin America. Of particular importance are the

numerous tables the report offers exclusively on the migrant

population of the city. For the inhabitants of Bogota who

were born elsewhere one can obtain data on the following vari-

ables and attributes (most of which are cross-tabulated with

one another): departamento of birth, departamento of previous

residence, age, sex, marital status, duration of residence,

literacy, occupation, and industry.

The published census results are supplemented in this

study with the unpublished computer print-outs containing the

original tabulations from which the Census Office of the

Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadistica derived

the figures in the printed census volume on Bogota. Those

print-outs were fortuitously located by the author in the

archival section of the DANE library. They constitute an


I _








invaluable data source, since they contain basically the

same data as in the published volume, but in more detail,

with smaller class intervals and more complex cross-tabula-

tions. Care was taken, of course, to authenticate the print-

outs by comparing all marginals of each table with those

found in the published version. There was perfect agreement

and it was obvious that the census volume was compiled by

condensing and simplifying the tables in the print-outs.

The most significant additional piece of information found

in the unpublished documents is the age distribution of the

migrant population of Bogota in five-year age intervals. In

the printed volume, the age of the migrants is only available

in four broad age groups.

The weeks spent in Bogota in connection with the research

for this study afforded the investigator much more than just

the additional statistical evidence found in the DANE library.

The visit provided the basis for an understanding of the

social setting in which the phenomenon under study unfolds.

Above all, the field observations impressed upon the author

the profound impact that the influx of persons to Bogota is

having on the life of the city's inhabitants.


Methodology


Like any other piece of research that strives to be

scientific, the two basic methods or processes by which

knowledge is acquired in this study are observation and









inference. The former involves the perception and analysis

of the social phenomenon under study, which in this case

means an analysis of the census materials on the migrants

living in Bogota. The second involves both an inductive

mental process, by which generalizations are formulated on

the basis of the observations, and a deductive process, in

which hypotheses are derived from the generalizations and

submitted to further observation and testing.

In observing and analyzing the data on migration to

Bogota, various tools of demographic inquiry are utilized.4

The ones most heavily relied upon here include interval-level

statistical functions, such as ratios and rates, proportions,

measures of central tendency and dispersion, and regression

and correlation. The data, once analyzed through these vari-

ous techniques, are presented to the reader either in graphic

or tabular form or in the text itself. Heavy use is made of

maps and bar graphs in the presentation of the findings. The

generalizations that are obtained from these observations are

then compared with the existing body of principles in the

field. Failure to confirm previous generalizations provides



4The following proved to be useful sources on the methods
of demographic research: George W. Barclay, Techniques of
Population Analysis (New York: John Wiley and Sons, Inc.,
1958); Henry S. Shryock et al., The Methods and Materials of
Demography (Washington, DTC. U.S. Government Printing Uffice,
1971);T TLynn Smith, Population Analysis (New York: McGraw-
Hill Book Company, Inc., 1948); and United Nations Department
of Economic and Social Affairs, Manuals on Methods of Esti-
mating Population, Manual VI: Methods of Measuring Internal
Migration (New York: United Nations, 1970).


__









the basis for formulation of alternative explanations or

hypotheses which in turn lead to further observation.



Significance of the Study


The concentration of population in large metropolitan

areas of Latin America is undoubtedly the most conspicuous

demographic event of the region. The rapidity and magnitude

of this process has, and will continue to have for many

decades, far-reaching implications for the structure of Latin

American societies. It is therefore not surprising that

numerous scholars have indicated that it is of vital impor-

tance to better understand the migration to the region's

urban areas. Juan C. Elizaga, for example, of the United

Nation's Latin American Demographic Center in Santiago, indi-

cated in 1970 that top priority must be given to research

that focuses on the migrations to large cities, since those

are the principal population movements within any Latin Ameri-

can country and have a tendency to influence the direction of

change and development in entire nations.5

The next chapter clearly demonstrates that most studies

dealing with migration in Latin America have analyzed data

on place of birth in order to discern the general patterns

of internal migration, usually by identifying the exchanges

of population between the major civil-administrative units



Juan C. Elizaga, Migraciones a las Areas Metropolitanas
de America Latina (Santiago: CELADE, 1970), pp. 7-8.


I








of particular nations. For most countries, not much more

than that can be done utilizing census data. Very infre-

quently do the census reports of Latin American countries

present tabulations on the populations of their metropolitan

areas.

It is therefore not surprising that research on migra-

tion to urban areas in that world region has had to depend

almost exclusively on surveys of migrants living in the

cities. The following chapter documents the prevalence of

survey research among previous studies of migration to Bogota

as well as to other Latin American cities. These studies

have made significant contributions to our knowledge in this

field, but they have been understandably silent or deficient

on the three basic questions that are raised in this study:

the magnitude of the migration and its contribution to the

growth of the city, the origins of the migrants, and the

selectivity and impact of the migration. Those questions

have been the ones most frequently raised in migration research

and, as the following chapter also substantiates, the answers

to those questions have traditionally been found in the analy-

sis of census data. But the data necessary for tackling such

questions are usually absent from most of the censuses of the

Latin American nations.

As discussed earlier, however, the 1964 census of the

population of Colombia presents us with a rare opportunity.

The existence of a separate census volume for the metropoli-

tan area of Bogota with unusually rich tabulations on those









who have migrated to the city means that data are now avail-

able that can fully answer the questions posed here. In so

doing, not only will a contribution be made to an understand-

ing of the migration to Bogota, but also to the existing body

of knowledge concerning migration to urban areas.


Order of Presentation


The plan of this dissertation follows closely the order

of the three objectives presented at the beginning of the

chapter. After presenting a resume in Chapter II of the most

significant works that are relevant to the study of migration

to Bogota, the issue of the contribution of migration to the

growth of the city is dealt with in Chapter III. Chapter IV

follows with an analysis of the geographic and residential

origins of the population residing in Bogota and born else-

where. The last major chapter, Chapter V, examines how mi-

gration to Colombia's capital has been selective of persons

with certain characteristics and the effect that that selec-

tivity has had on the demographic structure of the city.

Although each chapter includes its own summary, Chapter VI

presents an overall summary, as well as some general conclu-

sions and suggestions for further study.


I _













CHAPTER II

SURVEY OF THE LITERATURE



Any piece of research that makes a contribution to a

body of knowledge, which is what this study in a modest way

hopes to do, must have as its starting point a consideration

and evaluation of the existing edifice of knowledge that has

been erected, if only partially, by those that preceded the

present effort. That is precisely the domain of this chap-

ter: to survey, as fully as possible but without unnecessary

elaboration, previous significant research that is of rele-

vance to the study of migration to Colombia's capital. In

thus tracing the development of the literature since the

earliest attempts at understanding the process of migration,

the contribution that this study has to offer should be

readily apparent.

The approach of this chapter is to divide the discussion

into four areas, or more precisely, steps, each one taking us

closer to the specific research issue. These four divisions

of the chapter are as follows: (1) the literature relevant

to the study of migration to urban areas; (2) previous writ-

ings on migrations to Latin American cities; (3) studies of

population movements within the national boundaries of Colom-

bia, especially to its metropolitan areas; and (4) the liter-

ature on migration to Bogota.









It should be stressed that, although these headings

reflect the concern of this study, which is migration to a

large metropolitan area, the survey of the literature includes

the most significant studies that are relevant to that issue,

regardless of whether or not they focus specifically on popu-

lation movement to large cities. The reason it is necessary

to clarify this is because included in this chapter are a

number of important writings that deal with the broader ques-

tion of internal migration. If they are discussed here it is

because they either deal with migration to urban centers to

some extent or their conclusions with regard to migration in

general are of relevance to the present study.



The Literature on Migration to Urban Areas


John Graunt. There is relatively widespread agreement

that John Graunt is the founder of both demography and

statistics.1 His 1662 work, Natural and Political Observa-

tions Mentioned in the following Index and made upon the

Bills of Mortality,is a brilliant and truly scientific attempt

to discern certain regularities from the weekly reports of

burials and christenings in the parishes of London and the

surrounding countryside.2 From these data, which covered a



1Walter F. Willcox, ed., Natural and Political Observa-
tions made upon the Bills of Mortality by John Graunt
(Baltimore: the Johns Hopkins University Press, 1939), p. xiii.

Ibid., pp. 1-92.


___









57-year period from 1604 .to 1661, Graunt formulated 106 obser-

vations, nine of which are directly concerned with the pro-

cess of migration from the rural parishes to the British

capital.

It is not difficult to see the series of observations

that led him to the significant conclusion that there was a

noticeable movement of persons into London. In comparing

the number of christenings and the number of burials, he

observed that in London deaths outnumbered births, which

would mean that the city should decrease in population. But

this was not the case, since it was obvious to him by the

"daily increase of Buildings upon new Foundations, and by

the turning of great Palacious Houses into small Tenements"

that the city was growing larger every day.3 The only

explanation was that London was receiving people from rural

areas, a conclusion that was wholly consistent with his

observation that births exceeded deaths in the outlying

parishes, thereby creating a surplus of inhabitants whose

migration made possible the growth of the city. Graunt did

not stop there, for he even estimated the annual migration

to the city, concluded that the city was growing towards the

west, and observed that the migration was selective of per-

sons in the reproductive ages.

Not all of Graunt's generalizations would be valid

today, although he was fairly accurate in the ones relating



Ibid., p. 52.


_._ ~_ ___ __ _._____ I~__ __ __









to migration. But the importance of this seventeenth century

Englishman for this study is that he was the first to study

systematically and substantiate the same phenomenon that is

the focus of the present work.

E. G. Ravenstein. More than 200 years after Graunt made

his observations, one of his compatriots, E. G. Ravenstein,

published in the Journal of the Royal Statistical Society a

two-part article in which he sought to discover the princi-

ples which seem to govern migrations. His interest in the

topic was sparked by the view of one of his contemporaries

that the movement of persons seemed to follow no definite

pattern. Apparently unaware of Graunt's work, Ravenstein

focused his attention exclusively on the process of migration

and therefore was able to contribute much more to this area

than his predecessor. He was also helped by the availability

of data on place of birth from the 1871 and 1881 censuses of

the United Kingdom. He painstakingly analyzed these data in

the first part of the work, published in the Journal in June

of 1885, and arrived at seven "laws" of migration which he

maintained were applicable to the migration patterns of any

country in Europe and North America. The second part of the

work, published in the June 1889 issue, is a somewhat cursory



E. G. Ravenstein, "The Laws of Migration," Journal of
the Royal Statistical Society, XLVIII (June, 1885), 167-235;
and E. G. Ravenstein, "The Laws of Migration," Journal of
the Royal Statistical Society, LII (June, 1889), 241-305.


I__








examination of migration data from 19 nations in Europe and

North America.

Ravenstein's seven laws of migration are as follows.

First, migrations usually take place only for short distances

in the direction of large centers of commerce and industry

which constitute the principal regions of absorption of

migrants. Second, despite the fact that migrants travel only

for short distances, currents of migration to prominent cen-

ters of absorption are felt in the remotest sections of the

nation. This is possible because as persons who live closer

to the city move into it, their places are taken by those

further away, and in turn these are replaced by others still

at a greater distance from the center of absorption and so

on. Given this step-by-step process, Ravenstein concluded:

"Migrants enumerated in a certain centre of absorption will

consequently grow less with the distance proportionately to

the native population which furnishes them. . ."

Third, since a region of absorption is defined as one

which profits numerically from the exchange of persons with

other areas, and since regions of dispersion are those which

lose population through migration, it follows that the pro-

cesses of absorption and dispersion are both the inverse and

the complement of one another. This rather obvious principle

underscores an important conceptualization by Ravenstein.


SRavenstein, "The Laws of Migration" (June, 1885), 199.








Fourth, each current of migration has a corresponding

flow in the opposite direction. Even large cities, such as

London, send a certain number of natives elsewhere. Fifth,

those migrants that do move for long distances at a time will

generally have a large commercial or industrial center as

their destination. Sixth, rural residents tend to be more

physically mobile than urban residents. And seventh, among

migrants, females usually outnumber males.

In addition to presenting and substantiating these seven

generalizations, many of which still apply to most areas of

the world, Ravenstein anticipated some of the methodological

and conceptual problems that were to be faced by subsequent

students of migration. He discussed, for example, the prob-

lems inherent in the utilization of data on place of birth

and repeatedly called attention to the way in which the vari-

ation in the sizes of the territorial units severely affects

the observed incidence of migration. Another significant

methodological observation by Ravenstein concerned the lack

of comparability of the migration data from different nations

and the consequences of utilizing divergent censal concepts.

It is obvious from the above that Ravenstein's rather

comprehensive study of migration is a pioneer work that

should, and does, figure prominently in subsequent migration

studies. The present one is no exception.

Pitirim A. Sorokin and Carle C. Zimmerman. Sorokin's

interest in migration is apparent in the very first work he

produced in the United States, Social Mobility, published








in 1927.6 Although the focus in this book is on the forms

of social stratification and vertical social mobility, Soro-

kin discussed in part five, "Present-Day Mobile Society," the

notable increase in the "territorial circulation of individ-

uals" in modern Western society. In this relatively brief

section he analyzed data on the United States and several

European countries to demonstrate the accelerating rate of

human movement within and between national boundaries in con-

trast to more immobile societies such as India and China.

Prior to his professional association with Sorokin,

Carle C. Zimmerman had produced a series of articles which

appeared in the American Journal of Sociology and the Journal

of Farm Economics during the years 1926 to 1928. These

articles reported the results of a survey done by Zimmerman

and his associates on farm families in Minnesota in an

attempt to establish the factors associated with migration

from rural areas to towns and cities. Particular emphasis


6Pitirim A. Sorokin, Social Mobility (New York: Harper
and Brothers, 1927).

7C. C. Zimmerman, "The Migration to Towns and Cities,"
American Journal of Sociology, XXXII (November, 1926), 450-
455; C. C. Zimmerman, "The Migration to Towns and Cities II,"
American Journal of Sociology, XXXIII (July, 1927), 105-109;
C. C. Zimmerman, D. Duncan, and F. C. Frey, "The Migration
to Towns and Cities III," American Journal of Sociology,
XXXIII (September, 1927), 237-241; and C. C. Zimmerman and
0. D. Duncan, "The Migration to Towns and Cities IV," Journal
of Farm Economics, X (October, 1928), 506-515.








was given to intergenerational mobility and the influence of

various demographic and agrarian conditions.

When these two sociologists combined their efforts to

write Principles of Rural-Urban Sociology, which appeared in

1929, they devoted an entire section (Part IV) to the phenom-

enon of migration from rural areas to the cities. A strong

argument can be made for the contention that this contribu-

tion is still the most definitive general analysis of the

process of rural-urban migration. The comprehensiveness of

their treatment of this topic is evidenced by the numerous

aspects that are discussed under the following headings:

(1) the relative importance of migration in the growth of

the city population; (2) the factors promoting urban migra-

tion; (3) the selectivity of migration; (4) how the process

of migration to the city takes place; and (5) the adaptation

of rural migrants in the city. In a style that was already

familiar to the readers of Sorokin's Social Mobility and

Contemporary Sociological Theories, the authors first present,

without comment, the most important existing arguments or

theories on each topic and then proceed to present their own

conclusions.

On the issue of the relative contributions of migration

and natural increase to city growth, the authors cannot

entirely accept either the optimistic or the pessimistic


8Pitirim Sorokin and Carle C. Zimmerman, Principles of
Rural-Urban Sociology (New York: Henry Holt and Company,
V57T- ~.------









views of the controversy. They disagree with Weber and

Kuczynski, who represent the former, that migration is declin-

ing as a significant factor in urban growth. Sorokin and

Zimmerman's evidence, derived primarily from the vital statis-

tics of the United States, Sweden, and Germany, led them to

the conclusion that cities do not appear headed towards "self-

sufficiency." The trends in the natural increase of the urban

population did not point to the possibility that in the future

cities would be able to grow solely because of the excess of

births over deaths. Sorokin and Zimmerman are therefore appar-

ently closer to agreeing with Hansen's "pessimistic" view-

point that migrants are critical in the growth of cities.

They disagree, however, with his more extreme view that cities

are unable to maintain a positive balance between births and

deaths and will therefore cease to exist altogether if they

fail to receive rural migrants. The position of Sorokin and

Zimmerman is therefore between those two viewpoints: cities

are able to just barely replace themselves, but they have

depended and will continue to depend upon migrants for their

growth.

The authors of Principles of Rural-Urban Sociology list

three general factors they regard as the causes of migrations

from rural to urban areas. The first of these is simply the

higher fertility of rural populations, which creates a sur-

plus of inhabitants that could migrate to the cities. The

second is a complex of economic factors that tends to promote

migration to cities. Some of these economic factors are the






20


norms of primogeniture that force younger siblings to move,

the relative inelasticity of farm products as compared to

manufactured goods, the decreasing demand for farm labor

because of the increasing mechanization of agriculture, and

the opening of new lands in world regions outside of Europe

and North America that can be farmed at lower cost. The

third and final factor causing rural-urban migration is the

significant progress that has been made in the technology of

industry, making possible the creation of many new jobs in

the city.

Sorokin and Zimmerman focus much of their attention on

the selectivity of migration in an attempt to reach some

valid conclusions about the kinds of persons that are par-

ticularly prone to migrate to cities; in other words, the

characteristics of migrants to cities as compared to those

born in rural districts who did not migrate and those born

in the cities. The authors' summary of the existing studies

reveals a surprising agreement among the various sources as

to the way cities select migrants by age and sex. With

regard to the former, they conclude that migrants tend to be

in their productive ages, from about early adulthood to close

to age 39, with females migrating at younger ages than males.

This, of course, results in cities having a sizable propor-

tion of their population in this age group. It is not diffi-

cult to see why migrations take place predominantly in these

ages: the process of migration requires mobility, adapta-

bility, energy, and the desire to seek new opportunities, all








of which are characteristics not of old people or children,

but of young adults. Females migrate earlier than males, the

authors maintain, because they mature earlier.

Cities tend to select not only young adults, but also

more females than males. The "feminization" of the urban

population is the general tendency, but the authors are quick

to point out that many large cities do not share this trend.

Sorokin and Zimmerman attribute the overall feminization of

the cities to selective factors: cities offer employment

that is better suited to women (but then again, not all

cities), while agriculture and the norms governing the inheri-

tance of farm property tend to favor males. The authors mini-

mize the influence of biological factors on the feminization

of the urban population. One of the effects of the rela-

tively greater proportion of women in cities is that urban

females suffer somewhat in the mate-selection process.

Aside from age and sex selectivity, Sorokin and Zimmer-

man discuss popular theories of their time which attribute to

migrants superior innate characteristics, such as height,

cranial capacity, intelligence, as well as superior moral and

social attributes. In this connection they reviewed the

writings of Huntington, Hansen, Ammon, Lapouge, Gini, Hill,

and Livi and concluded that there exists no solid evidence

that there is in the process of migration any selection of

those rural residents that are physically, mentally, morally,

socially, or innately superior, or for that matter, inferior.

Whatever differences there may be between the behavior of









rural and urban populations are probably due to their con-

trasting age and sex compositions, occupations, and the homo-

geneity or heterogeneity of their setting, rather than to

differences in their innate physical apparatuses.

In discussing the ways in which rural-urban migrations

take place, Sorokin and Zimmerman set out to test with more

recent data Ravenstein's laws of migration, placing particu-

lar emphasis on the British statistician's conclusion that

migrants only move for short distances and that the entire

process of migration proceeds in steps. Their discussion of

these points will not be elaborated on here since these prin-

ciples have already been discussed in detail, except to say

that Sorokin and Zimmerman generally confirmed Ravenstein's

principles. They did note some exceptions, notably in the

patterns of international migration and in the migration of

upper-class and professional persons. The authors of Princi-

ples also postulate some explanations of why persons usually

migrate only short distances.

The final issue which Sorokin and Zimmerman deal with in

Part IV of Principles of Rural-Urban Sociology is the verti-

cal mobility of the migrants once they have arrived in the

city. Their overall conclusion in this area is that rural

migrants can be found in all strata of urban society in about

equal proportions as the native-urban population. The authors

believe that the rapidity of movement up or down the socio-

economic scale and their settlement in the upper, middle, or

lower strata are determined by the preparation the migrants









carry with them upon entering the city.. Those that are well-

trained, along with those who manage to obtain certain prep-

aration in the city, will inevitably find themselves climbing

and settling in the upper and middle classes. Those whose

only resources are their unskilled hands will be among those

in the lower stratum.

Although this relatively brief review cannot include

all of the detail and elaboration found in Principles of

Rural-Urban Sociology, it should be readily apparent that the

comprehensive and thorough nature of Sorokin and Zimmerman's

contribution makes it a veritable landmark in the study of

rural-urban migration. Needless to say, the present study

draws heavily from this work for hypotheses and explanations

of findings.

Dorothy Swaine Thomas. In 1938 the Committee on Migra-

tion Differentials of the Social Science Research Council

entrusted to its chairperson, Dorothy Swaine Thomas, the task

of surveying the field of migration differentials with the

purpose of summarizing the major perspectives and contribu-

tions of existing research and suggesting areas where addi-

tional investigation was needed. The result was a fairly

sizable monograph entitled Research Memorandum on Migration

Differentials which covers the selectivity of migration by

age, sex, family status, physical health, mental health,

intelligence, occupation, motivation, and assimilation.


Dorothy Swaine Thomas, Research Memorandum on Migration
Differentials (New York: Social Science Research Council,
1938).


___~_ ____~~___ _1_~__1 1__~___1________1 __^_1____1111__ ___ __ __








Thomas presented the results of the most important stud-

ies in the field and also conducted some investigations of

her own with Swedish and Dutch data, which she maintained are

much more adequate for the study of migration differentials

than the existing American and English statistical sources.

Perhaps the most important contribution that Thomas made in

this monograph was to stress the importance of examining the

influence of these three factors: (1) the structure of the

communities of origin and destination, (2) the distance of

the migration, and (3) the phase of the business cycle during

which the migration takes place. She maintained that these

three factors are significant in determining the observed

migration differentials, and generally found that the studies

conducted up to that time failed to take them into considera-

tion.

Thomas concurred with Sorokin and Zimmerman on the way

migration is selective of particular age groups, noting that

all studies seem to point to a disproportionate number of

persons in the early adult years. Male migrants were

slightly older than female migrants, a conclusion also

reached by Sorokin and Zimmerman. But Thomas returned to her

original three-point premise, that age selection probably

shows some variation according to community structure, dis-

tance, and phase of the business cycle.

Those three factors, especially the first two, are im-

portant in analyzing sex differentials, which appear to show

a somewhat less consistent pattern than age. As the authors









of Principles of Rural-Urban Sociology also pointed out,

Thomas shows how, although the general pattern is for urban

migrations to be selective of females, some cities appear to

attract more males than females, depending on the principal

function of the city, job opportunities, and the distance

from the place of origin.

Concerning family status, Thomas relied on a study by

Van den Brink on Amsterdam which indicated that lone migrants

significantly outnumbered family heads in the migrant popula-

tion of the city. Her own investigations, however, led her

to conclude that once in the city, migrants of both sexes.

were more successful than native residents in finding marriage

partners.

With respect to the other differentials covered in the

Research Memorandum, Thomas found little agreement among the

various sources and only scant evidence of how migration

selects by physical and mental health, intelligence, and

occupation. The difficulties with this last characteristic,

occupation, center around the lack of comparability in the

categories that are frequently utilized. Thomas viewed

future research in this area as being particularly important

because it might shed some light on the vertical mobility of

migrants in the city.

Thomas' work is highly significant not only because it

summarizes the research conducted prior to 1938 on migration

differentials, but also because she pointed out numerous

methodological and conceptual difficulties that have hindered









migration research, particularly in the use of census data.

She was to continue work in this area, attempting to resolve

some of those very difficulties she raised by utilizing the

U.S. Census data on place of previous residence that only

became available for the first time with the 1940 enumeration.

With these new data she examined age and sex differentials as

affected by the factors she posited in 1938: community

structure, distance, and phases of the business cycle.10

T. Lynn Smith and associates. T. Lynn Smith's first

contribution to the field of rural-urban migration appeared

in the July 1930 issue of the American Journal of Sociology

when he co-authored another of Carle C. Zimmerman's studies

of migration based on a sample of farm families in Minnesota.11

The purpose of this article was to test the null hypothesis

of chance selection in migration from rural areas. The find-

ings indicate that migration is selective of persons with

certain characteristics. Some of those characteristics have

already been discussed by other writers, but perhaps the most

important contribution the article makes is in postulating

the tentative conclusion that the first-born male of multi-



10Dorothy Swaine Thomas, "Age and Economic Differentials
in Internal Migration in the United States: Structure and
Distance," Proceedings of the International Population Con-
ference (Vienna, 1959); and Dorothy Swaine Thomas, "Age and
Economic Differentials in Interstate Migration," Population
Index, XXIV (October, 1958), 313-325.

1Carle C. Zimmerman and T. Lynn Smith, "Migrations to
Towns and Cities," American Journal of Sociology, XXXVI
(July, 1930), 41-51.


___ ___ ~_ _____ __I ~_I ___1_~111__~ __ __ _









children families tends to remain on the farm while the

younger siblings migrate to the cities.

Subsequent research by Smith and his associates sought

to study migration in the United States and Latin America.

Studies on the latter area are discussed in the next section.

The emphasis here is on Smith's use of the data on the United

States to discover the importance, patterns, and selectivity

of migration. In an article which appeared in 1941, for

example, Smith tested and confirmed the existence of age,

sex, residential, and birth-order differentials in internal

migration in the United States and added one that is of par-

ticular significance in that country: race.12 Like Sorokin

and Zimmerman, Smith labeled as misleading the conclusions

reached by previous writers about the selectivity of migration

with regard to physical health and intelligence, concluding

that the data do not permit any definite generalization.

Smith was very definite in his contention that popularly-used

tests are inadequate for assessing the relative abilities and

intelligence of rural and urban residents. These tend to

have a bias that favors the latter. In the article, Smith

also dealt with the thorny subject of defining migration and

of delineating its different types. The findings one obtains,

he stressed, depend on the type of migration one is studying.


1T. Lynn Smith, "Characteristics of Migrants," The South-
western Social Science Quarterly, XXI (March, 1941), 335-350.









Perhaps the best source for the contributions of Smith

and his collaborators on the topic of rural-urban migration

is the volume he co-authored with C. A. McMahan, The Sociology

of Urban Life.13 The section dealing with migration repub-

lishes several writings that had appeared previously in other

publications. Smith's contributions on migration to the work

are reproduced from his Population Analysis and Sociology of

Rural Life.14 In these selections he discussed in detail the

origins and destinations of rural-urban migrants in the United

States, the contribution of migration to the growth of Ameri-

can cities, and the selectivity of these migrations. On this

last point, his observations summarized the findings of many

other studies: "For traits other than age and sex, it is

difficult to prove that rural-urban migration is selective."5

He went on, however, to discuss the findings of various stud-

ies concerning differentials in education, race, order of

birth, and tenure status.

Two of Smith's associates also contributed significant

selections to the migration section. Homer L. Hitt's analy-

sis of the migration to the South's urban areas is important

not only because of its numerous substantive contributions,


13T. Lynn Smith and C. A. McMahan, The Sociology of Urban
Life (New York: The Dryden Press, 1951).
14T. Lynn Smith, Population Analysis (New York: McGraw-
Hill Book Company, Inc., 1948); and T. Lynn Smith, The Soci-
ology of Rural Life (3rd ed., New York: Harper and Brothers,
1953).
1T. Lynn Smith, "The Rural-Urban Exchange of Population,"
in The Sociology of Urban Life by Smith and McMahan, p. 310.


I __ _









but also because it demonstrated the usefulness of three-

factor cartographic representations in the study of migration.16

The article by C. A. McMahan, "Selectivity of Rural-Urban

Migration," contains a very succinct summary of previous find-

ings on that subject.17 Aside from the principle already dis-

cussed, that urban migrants tend to be young and female,

McMahan presented three other generalizations which he dis-

covered in surveying the existing literature: (1) the longer

the distance between the points of origin and destination,

the younger the migrants; (2) in the older age categories,

more males than females migrate to the cities; and (3) migrants

from farms to cities tend to have more years of formal school-

ing than non-migrants.

Two additional works by Smith merit mentioning in this

section. One is the joint effort by Smith and Hitt, The

People of Louisiana, published in 1952.18 In this comprehen-

sive analysis of the population of that southern state, the

chapter on migration documents how the growth of Louisiana's

cities depends on migration from its rural areas. The

authors' analysis of the selectivity of urban migration con-

firmed the well-established age and sex differentials and



16Homer L. Hitt, "Migration and Southern Cities," in The
Sociology of Urban Life by Smith and McMahan.
17C. A. McMahan, "Selectivity of Rural-Urban Migration,"
in The Sociology of Urban Life by Smith and McMahan.
18T. Lynn Smith and Homer L. Hitt, The People of Louisiana
(Baton Rouge: Louisiana State University Press, 1952).


_______~111_____1_ _____^ __ __









also indicated that Negroes contributed proportionately more

than whites to the movement of population to the state's

cities. The other work is the fairly recent publication,

Demography: Principles and Methods, by Smith and Paul E.

Zopf, Jr.19 Besides reformulating Smith's typology of migra-

tion, which first appeared in the 1941 article, and discussing

at length the problems involved in the data and measures used

in migration studies, the chapter on migration includes a

list of research issues which the authors believe should be

given attention by demographers. Two of these are of partic-

ular significance to the present study: (1) the exact deter-

mination, as far as possible, of the amount of persons moving

in or out of a particular region, state, or city; and (2) the

selectivity of rural-urban migration, particularly its vari-

ations both in time and place and the variables that are in

turn associated with these variations.

K. C. Zachariah. One work that is of singular importance

to the present study is K. C. Zachariah's analysis of the

migrant population of Greater Bombay, conducted under the

auspices of the Demographic Training and Research Center in

that city.20 Zachariah had written previously on the broader

phenomenon of internal migration in the entire Indian nation


19T. Lynn Smith and Paul E. Zopf, Jr., Demography: Prin-
ciples and Methods (Philadelphia: F. A. Davis Company, 1970).
20K. C. Zachariah, Migrants in Greater Bombay (Bombay:
Asia Publishing House, 1968).









for his doctoral dissertation at the Population Studies Center
21
of the University of Pennsylvania.2

For Migrants in Greater Bombay, Zachariah had at his

disposal exceptionally good data, tabulated especially for

the study by the Office of the Census Commissioner of India

from the results of the 1961 census. These enabled him to

analyze in unusual detail the selectivity of migration to

that Indian metropolis according to a relatively large list

of characteristics: age, sex, marital status, religion, edu-

cational attainment, and economic status. Zachariah also

assessed the impact of the city's net migration on its growth,

the places of origin of the migrants (both by regions and by

rural-urban residence), and the duration of residence in the

city of its non-native component.

From what was said in the introduction about the objec-

tives of the present study, it should be apparent that in a

large measure it parallels the one conducted by Zachariah on

Bombay. Consequently, numerous references will be made in

the course of the study to Zachariah's findings and method-

ology, so that a full discussion of his work in this chapter

would only be repetitious.

In a similar manner, discussion will be withheld here on

countless migration studies that have either confirmed or

somewhat reformulated the hypotheses that were postulated by


21K. C. Zachariah, A Historical Study of Internal Migra-
tion in the Indian Sub-Continent 1901-1931 (Bombay: Asia
Publishing House, 1964).


~








some of the authors previously surveyed. Their specific find-

ings and contributions, insofar as they are relevant to the

present study, are noted at the appropriate places in the

text. The most noteworthy of these are: the analyses of

various aspects of internal migration in the United States

conducted by Henry S. Shryock, Donald J. Bogue, C. Horace

Hamilton, Conrad Taeuber, Hope T. Eldridge, Irene Taeuber,

James D. Tarver, and Everett S. Lee; the study of Scottish

migrants by Illsley, Finlayson, and Thompson; and the analy-

ses of migration in Sweden by Newmark, in Ghana by Gil and
22
Omaboe, and in Tokyo by Irene Taeuber. To discuss them in

detail here would unduly lengthen this chapter, the purpose

of which is merely to set the basis for the present study by

discussing the evolution of the research issue in previous

research. Accordingly, the next step is to review the body

of literature on migration in the particular world region in

which Bogota is located: Latin America.


22Henry S. Shryock, Jr., Population Mobility Within the
United States (Chicago: Community and Family Study Center,
University of Chicago, 1964); Donald J. Bogue, "Techniques
and Hypotheses for the Study of Differential Migration: Some
Notes from an Experiment with U.S. Data," Proceedings of the
International Population Conference (New York, 1961); C.
Horace Hamilton, "Educational Selectivity of Net Migration
from the South," Social Forces, XXXVIII (October, 1959), 33-
42; Conrad Taeuber and Irene Barnes Taeuber, The Changing
Population of the United States (New York: John Wiley and
Sons, Inc., 1958); Hope T. Eldridge, "A Cohort Approach to
the Analysis of Migration Differentials," Demography, I (1964),
212-219; Hope T. Eldridge and Dorothy Swaine Thomas, Demo-
graphic Analyses and Interrelationships, Vol. III of Popula-
tion Redistribution and Economic Growth, United States, 1970-
195U, ed. by Simon Kuznets and Dorothy Swaine Thomas (3 vols.;
Philadelphia: The American Philosophical Society, 1964);









The Literature on Migration in Latin America


Studies of migration within the boundaries of Latin

American nations, particularly the movement to its large

urban centers, emerged somewhat later than the analyses of

migration in Europe and North America. In a large measure

this can be attributed to the absence of adequate data during

most of the first half of the present century. The situation

has been greatly improved in many countries of that world

region in the past two or three decades as census offices

became much more cognizant of the need to obtain information

on the increasing rate of territorial mobility of their popu-

lations.

T. Lynn Smith. One of the first thorough analyses of

migration in a Latin American nation appeared in T. Lynn

Smith's first edition of Brazil: People and Institutions in



James D. Tarver, "Interstate Migration Differentials," Ameri-
can Sociological Review, XXVIII (June, 1963), 448-451; Everett
S. Lee, "Migration Differentials by State of Birth in the
United States," Proceedings of the International Population
Conference (New York, 1961); Raymond Illsley, Angela Finlay-
son, and Barbara Thompson, "The Motivations and Characteris-
tics of Internal Migrants," Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly,
XLI (April, 1963), 115-144; Ejnar Neymark, "Migration Differ-
entials in Education, Intelligence, and Social Background:
Analyses of a Cohort of Swedish Males," Bulletin of the
International Statistical Institute, XL, 350-379; B. Gil and
E. N. Omaboe, "Internal Migration Differentials from Conven-
tional Census Questionnaire Items in Ghana," Bulletin of the
International Statistical Institute, XL, 431-446; and Irene
Taeuber, The Population of Japan (Princeton: Princeton Uni-
versity Press, 1958).


______ ~~__









the chapter entitled "Internal Migration."23 Smith, adhering

to his contention, which first appeared in the 1941 article

previously discussed, that the conclusions one reaches depend

on the type of population movement one is examining, divides

the analysis of internal migration in Brazil into the differ-

ent kinds of movements that predominate within the boundaries

of that large nation. Of particular interest here are his

discussions of rural-urban migration and migration to Sao

Paulo.

With regard to rural-urban migration, Smith analyzed

primarily the data from the 1890 and 1920 censuses on the

migration of persons to Rio de Janeiro from the rest of

Brazil. His emphasis was on determining the states of origin

of the migrants and the contribution of migration to the

growth of the nation's former capital. Mention was also made

of the fact that the city's age and sex distribution seemed

to reflect a relatively heavy influx of migrants.

Migration to Sao Paulo was discussed separately because

Smith had at his disposal various statistical sources that

rendered annual data on the movement of persons into the city

from 1900 to 1939. Using these, he determined the volume of

the migration and principal places of origin, possible reasons

for the move, and several characteristics of the migrants.


23T. Lynn Smith, Brazil: People and Institutions (Baton
Rouge: Louisiana State University Press, 1946).









It is significant that on the general topic of internal

migration in Brazil, Smith wrote:

. it is evident that rural-urban migration is
of less relative importance in Brazil than in most
countries. Cities are few in relation to popula-
tion. Even though there are thousands of towns
scattered about the immense territory, still four-
fifths of the entire population is strictly rural.24

What is most important about that statement is that by

the time the fourth edition of Brazil appeared in 1972, it

had been deleted. Smith, after analyzing the census data

since 1940 reached the following conclusion:

S. few countries in the entire world, if any,
have undergone more rapidly a transformation from.,
a nation that for centuries was overwhelmingly
rural, pastoral, and agricultural, to one in which
the majority of the population live in urban cen-
ters and engage in non-agricultural economic activi-
ties, than has Brazil.25

The data on migration to Rio from the 1940 and 1950 censuses

had already been analyzed in the third edition, and in the

fourth, the 1960 and 1970 data were the basis for a section

in the Supplement on urbanization in Brazil, where Smith docu-

mented the precipitous growth of Brazil's urban centers and

discussed some of its effects.

Aside from research specifically on the process of migra-

tion in Brazil, Smith has written a number of general articles


24Ibid., p. 299.
25T. Lynn Smith, Brazil: People and Institutions (4th ed.;
Baton Rouge: Louisiana State University Press, 1972), p. 681.









on rural-urban migration in Latin America.26 A particular

aspect which Smith emphasizes throughout most of these writ-

ings is the specification of what he calls the "factors,

forces, and media" associated with the increasingly wide-

spread movement of persons to the large urban centers. These

factors can be specified both as a series of broad societal

transformations and also as a set of immediate influences on

individuals which cause them to move to urban areas.

Juan C. Elizaga. As a member of the staff of Centro

Latinoamericano de Demograffa (CELADE), Elizaga has written a

number of works relevant to the study of migration to Latin

American urban areas. His first contribution to this field,

published in 1963 by CELADE, focused on the differentials of

migrations to several cities in Brazil, Colombia, and Venezuela

during the period from 1940 to 1950.27 Selectivity by age and

sex was given special attention, since Elizaga demonstrated

the application of the census-survival technique for arriving

at estimates of migration for each age and sex category.

In an article written two years later, in 1965, Elizaga

already had at his disposal the results of the 1960 round of


26T. Lynn Smith, "Un Analisis Comparativo de la Migraci6n
Rural-Urbana en Latinoam6rica," Estadistica, XVI (December,
1958), 436-453; T. Lynn Smith, Studies of Latin American
Societies (Garden City: Doubleday and Company, 1970), pp. 102-
120; and T. Lynn Smith, "Urbanization in Latin America,"
International Journal of Comparative Sociology, IV (September,
1963), 120-135.
27
27Juan C. Elizaga, Migraci6n Diferencial en Algunas
Regiones y Ciudades de la America Latina, 1940-1950 (Santiago:
CELADE, 1963).









censuses in ten Latin American nations and documented the

rapid pace of urbanization in the region as a whole.28 Uti-

lizing again census-survival rates as well as the data on

duration of residence available for the first time in most of

the circa 1960 censuses, Elizaga updated and expanded his

analysis of age and sex differentials, generally confirming

previous findings.

His most recent contribution appears in the Summer 1972

issue of the International Migration Review.29 This article

presents no data, but constitutes a good general discussion

of some of the salient features of internal migration in

Latin America. It includes a review of the research tech-

niques that have been most widely used in studying the area,

as well as a discussion of sources of data, the factors in-

fluencing migration flows, and the selectivity of the move-

ments. One of his most significant generalizations is that

by far most of the migrants to large cities come from other

urban areas rather than from the countryside.

Aside from those three general writings on the topic,

Elizaga has contributed a piece of research that is of par-

ticular importance to this study. It involved a survey of



28Juan C. Elizaga, "Internal Migrations in Latin America,"
Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly, XLIII (October, 1965),
144-161.

29Juan C. Elizaga, "Internal Migration: An Overview,"
International Migration Review, VI (Summer, 1972), 121-146.








2,309 households in Greater Santiago (Chile).30 For the mi-

grant subsample, Elizaga analyzed a number of variables and

attributes, such as age, sex, educational status, place of

birth and place of previous residence, motives for migrating,

position in the city's occupational structure, and the demo-

graphic and social impact on the city.

It is obvious from the list of topics as well as from

the fact that it was conducted on the migrant population of a

Latin American urban area, that this study is of great impor-

tance to the present analysis. Since a full discussion of

all the findings Elizaga presents in a 200-page monograph

would be impossible here, it is best to withhold any such

discussion until the pertinent opportunities when his results

can be contrasted with those obtained for Bogota.

Other studies of migration in Latin America. Aside from

those already mentioned, various studies have added greatly

to the existing body of knowledge on the movement of persons

in Latin America. The ones of utmost relevance to the pres-

ent study are briefly discussed here, noting their most sig-

nificant contributions, particularly if they pertain to mi-

gration to large urban areas.

A study similar to Elizaga's work on migration to Santi-

ago was conducted by Nestor Campiglia on Montevideo (Uruguay).3


30Juan C. Elizaga, Migraciones a las Areas Metropolitanas
de America Latina (Santiago: CELADE, 1970).
31Nestor Campiglia, La Migraci6n a Montevideo (Montevideo:
Universidad de la Repiblica, 1965).









Campiglia and his associates interviewed a total of 2,415

families in that capital city with a schedule that included

a broad range of items. In their preliminary publication of

the results, however, they chose to focus on a few of the

significant migration questions. These were: place of birth,

not only of the heads of households, but also of the head's

father and paternal grandfather; duration of residence in the

capital; and educational level of the respondent and his

father. Perhaps the most interesting feature of this survey

is that intergenerational migration histories were obtained.

The results reveal the accelerating pace of migration to

Montevideo, with the more recent generations exhibiting much

more territorial mobility. As would be expected from a study

conducted on the Uruguayan capital, immigration was a signifi-

cant factor and was submitted to a lengthy analysis, especi-

ally since many of the respondents' fathers and grandfathers

were foreign-born. Not all of the respondents, of course,

were migrants themselves, but virtually all had a recent

ancestor who had not been born in Montevideo.

Although the classic 1948 work, Rural Mexico, included

a brief section on rural-urban growth differentials and urban-

ization, Nathan L. Whetten's most detailed analysis of in-

ternal migration in that Latin American nation appeared as an

article in Rural Sociology in 1956 with Robert G. Burnight


~~ ~








as co-author.32 Whetten and Burnight analyzed data on place

of birth from the Mexican enumerations of 1940 and 1950 in

order to reach certain conclusions about the volume of the

population movements within the nation and to identify the

principal areas in which migrants originated and those to

which they moved. The authors found indications of signifi-

cant rural-to-urban migration.

Whetten did include a somewhat more extensive analysis

of internal migration in his more recent general work on a

Latin American nation: Guatemala: The Land and the People.33

Using data from the 1950 Census, Whetten documented how at.

that time the volume of migration within the boundaries of

that Central American nation was relatively small in compari-

son with most other nations, a condition viewed as consistent

with Guatemala's underdevelopment. Whetten did leave open

the possibility, however, of substantial short-distance migra-

tions within departments, particularly to urban centers and

towns.

The results from the 1950 enumeration of Guatemala were

also analyzed by Jorge Arias B. for the 1961 International

Population Conference.34 Arias computed estimates of net


32Nathan L. Whetten, Rural Mexico (Chicago: The University
of Chicago Press, 1948), pp. 38-40; and Nathan L. Whetten and
Robert G. Burnight, "Internal Migration in Mexico," Rural
Sociology, XXI (1956), 140-151.

33Nathan L. Whetten, Guatemala: The Land and the People
(New Haven: Yale University Press, 1961), pp. 24-27.

34Jorge Arias B., "Internal Migration in Guatemala,"
Proceedings of the International Population Conference (New
York, 1961).









migration by department, sex, and ethnic group. Among his

most interesting findings is that there is an ethnic differ-

ential, with non-Indians exhibiting a higher territorial

mobility than Indians.

In that same Population Conference, another paper was

presented that is particularly important to the present

study, since it examined migration to another Latin American

urban area: San Salvador.35 It presented the findings of a

survey of 900 households in El Salvador's capital, the main

purpose of which was to ascertain the geographic origins of

the migrants and to compare the characteristics of those -in

subsamples of migrants and non-migrants in order to discern

migration differentials. The principal characteristics

analyzed were age, sex, marital status, literacy, and educa-

tion. In a similar fashion to the studies by Zachariah and

Elizaga, both of which also focused exclusively on migration

to specific urban areas, discussion of the findings of this

survey are withheld until the appropriate opportunities in

the text.

One last work deserves mentioning in this section. For

several years the Center for Studies in Population and Devel-

opment in Lima has been sponsoring and publishing research

on internal migration in Perd.36 In 1968, the Center


35Louis J. Ducoff, "The Migrant Population of a Metropoli-
tan Area in a Developing Country: A Preliminary Report on a
Case Study of San Salvador," Proceedings of the International
Population Conference (New York, 1961).

36See, for example, Hector Martinez, "Las Migraciones
Internas en el Peru," Estudios de Poblaci6n y Desarrollo, II


--









released an article by J. Oscar Alers and Richard P. Appelbaum

which contains a list of 100 generalizations on migrations in

that country compiled by the authors from previous research.37

It is a valuable reference work, and although all 100 propo-

sitions cannot be discussed here, three of them should be

mentioned. These are: (1) most of the population movements

in Perd have urban areas as their place of destination, par-

ticularly the Lima metropolitan area; (2) geographic areas

adjacent to Lima have ceased to be the principal source of

migrants to the capital, most of which now come from the more

remote northern regions; and (3) most of the migrants proceed

directly to Lima from their place of birth.



The Literature on Internal Migration
in Colombia


Since the flow of persons to Bogota is one of the most

important of all the migrations within Colombia, most of the

works surveyed in the next few pages do include that particu-

lar topic in their analyses. They differ, however, from the

studies reviewed in the following section in that they do not

focus exclusively on the movement of people to the Distrito,

but rather they attempt to understand all the significant



(1968), 1-15; and Raymond E. Crist, "Conceptos Generales
sobre la Colonizacidn en la Montana Peruana," Estudios de
Poblaci6n y Desarrollo, III (1969), 1-16.

37J. Oscar Alers and Richard P. Appelbaum, "La Migraci6n
en el Peru: Un Inventario de Proposiciones," Estudios de
Poblaci6n y Desarrollo, I (1968), 1-43.


I _









population movements within the national boundaries of Colom-

bia, only one of which is the migration to! the capital.

Therein lies the value for this study of the works surveyed

in this section: they analyze and describe the larger national

setting within which occurs the specific demographic phenome-

non under investigation in this dissertation.

Virtually all of the research on internal migration in

Colombia is relatively recent. One exception is the survey

conducted by T. Lynn Smith, Justo Dfaz Rodriguez, and Luis

Roberto Garcfa of the municipio of Tabio in Cundinamarca.

Published in 1944, Tabio: Estudio de la Organizaci6n Social-

Rural included a section on the migration status of the
38
municipio's inhabitants.3

T. Paul Schultz. Among the social scientists that have

studied the process of internal migration in Colombia, T.

Paul Schultz is the one who has devoted the most attention

to it. His first contribution appeared in 1969 as a monograph

of the Rand Corporation entitled Population Growth and Inter-

nal Migration in Colombia.9 Subsequent writings by him in

this area were published in the Review of Economics and

Statistics and as a chapter in a recent book on Colombia


38
T. Lynn Smith, Justo Diaz Rodriguez, and Luis Roberto
Garcfa, Tabio: Estudio de la Organizacidn Social Rural
(Bogotd: Editorial Minerva, 1944); and T. Lynn Smith, Justo
Diaz Rodriguez, and Luis Roberto Garcia, Tabio: A Study in
Rural Social Organization (Washington: U.S. Department of
Agriculture, 1945).

3T. Paul Schultz, Population Growth and Internal Migration
in Colombia (Santa Monica: The Rand Corporation, 1969).


_ I









written by Schultz and others.40

Being an economist, Schultz's purpose was to present an

economic model that would explain population movements in

Colombia. He saw migration as an adjustment to a situation

of disequilibrium in the supply and demand for labor among

regional markets. The model would predict the migration rate

for a particular area by statistically accounting for numer-

ous economic factors such as wage in the place of residence

and in the nearest major city, the wage the person aspires

to, the local unemployment rate, the non-wage benefits of the

area in which the migrant currently resides, the cost of

migrating, and the incidence of violence in the area.

This model, of course, befits an economist's perception

of the social reality. For the purposes of the present

study, however, the most valuable thing about Schultz's con-

tribution is not his model, which was written in an entirely

different disciplinary framework, but his estimates of the

net migration rates of a nationwide sample of 132 municipios

especially compiled from the censuses of 1951 and 1964.

These intercensal estimates are included in the monograph

because they constituted part of the data with which the

model was tested. Schultz computed them separately for each

age, sex, and residential category through the use of census-


40T. Paul Schultz, "Rural-Urban Migration in Colombia,"
Review of Economics and Statistics, LIII (May, 1971), 157-
163; and Richard R. Nelson, T. Paul Schultz, and Robert L.
Slighton, Structural Change in a Developing Economy (Prince-
ton: Princeton University Press, 1971).


_ _









survival rates. Unfortunately for us, none of the Distrito's

municipios is included in the sample. Nevertheless, the

available estimates constitute a valuable indicator of the

volume and selectivity of Colombia's internal migrations.

Carlos Garcfa N. Perhaps even more germane to the pres-

ent study than Schultz's work is the monograph written by

Carlos Garcia N. for the Centro de Estudios sobre Desarrollo

Econ6mico of the Universidad de los Andes and entitled

Caracterfsticas de los Inmigrantes a Cinco Ciudades Colom-

bianas.41 Its importance for us lies in the fact that it is

a comparative study of migration to five Colombian cities:

Bogota, Bucaramanga, Manizales, Medellfn, and Popayan. A

total of 933 interviews were conducted in these cities with

the purpose of contrasting the characteristics of their re-

spective migrant populations. Garcfa presented analyses on

the following topics: the places of origin of the migrants,

the patterns of the migrations, age and educational level

upon arriving at the city, the motivations of the migrants,

the way in which the decision to move was arrived at, and

the extent of migration of individuals as opposed to migra-

tion of families.

Numerous findings of the study by Garcfa are important

for us, but perhaps the one of greatest interest is that in

comparison with other cities, a much higher proportion of the

migrants to Bogota moved there directly from their places of



41Carlos Garcfa N., Caracterfsticas de los Inmigrantes a
Cinco Ciudades Colombianas (Bogota: CEDE, 1970).


_ I









birth. Other conclusions reached by Garcia are brought up

during the course of this study in order to compare them with

the findings obtained using the data from the 1964 census of

Colombia.

Segundo Bernal. Undoubtedly the most comprehensive and

concise treatment of the subject of internal migration in

Colombia is found in a lengthy article entitled "Algunos

Aspectos Sociol6gicos de la Migraci6n en Colombia" by Segundo

Bernal.42 Utilizing data from the 1938, 1951, and 1964 cen-

sus enumerations, Bernal rigorously analyzed Colombia's entire

migration picture during those years. He started by present-

ing the geographic and rural-urban distributions of Colombia's

population, documenting the rapid growth since 1938 of some

regions and of urban areas in general. Most of his analysis

was based on the data on place of birth, ascertaining those

departamentos that have been primarily receiving migrants

and those where a dispersion of the population seems to have

taken place. Bernal even computed the net gains or losses of

each departamento in its population exchange with every other

departamento. He also analyzed the occupational characteris-

tics of the migrants by place of residence. By way of a

summary, Bernal dealt with each region of Colombia separately,

presenting the growth of the urban and rural areas of each

municipio in the period from 1951 to 1964.



42Segundo Bernal, "Algunos Aspectos Sociol6gicos de la
Migraci6n en Colombia," in Las Migraciones Internas, ed. by
Ramiro Cardona Gutierrez (Bogota: ASCOFAME, 1972).


I ~








Other Studies of Internal Migration in Colombia. The

entire bibliography on population movements in Colombia is

surprisingly long. Most of these works, like the writings of

Garcia and Bernal, have been published in Colombia by native

authors within the past five years, indicating perhaps a

recent surge of interest in this topic in the country. Aside

from the three contributions already reviewed, a few other

significant publications dealing with internal migration in

Colombia are briefly discussed here.

Georges Vernez, in articles in the Journal of the Inter-

american Planning Society, discussed urbanization in Colombia,

particularly as it compares with parallel developments in

other nations.43 He arrived at the conclusion that the pro-

cess of population concentration in Colombia is not centered

exclusively around one metropolitan area, but that there are

several population centers that exhibit very high rates of

growth. In other words, Vernez questioned the proposition

that a primate city exists in Colombia. He did note, however,

that Bogota depends much more than other Colombian cities

upon migration for its rapid rate of growth.

The importance of more than one metropolitan area in the

urbanization of the Colombian population underscores the

contributions of Miguel Fornaguera of the Universidad


43Georges Vernez, "El Proceso de Urbanizacidn en Colombia,"
Revista de la Sociedad Interamericana de Planificaci6n, V
(September, 1971), 14-34.









Nacional.44 Basic to his analysis of internal migration was

the division of the nation into regions, with each region

containing an "epicenter" or urban area. There is a mutual

dependency between the epicenter and the rest of the region,

and a significant amount of migration flows from the hinter-

land to the city. Fornaguera identified six regions in

Colombia and documented the growth of their epicenters from

1938 to 1964. A similar approach was taken by Reinaldo

Posada when he discussed the "poles" of urbanization in
45
Colombia.

Another work on internal migration in Colombia appeared

as a short article in a publication edited by the Centro de

Estudios sobre Desarrollo Econ6mico. Written by William

McGreevey, the article focused primarily on the motivations

of the migrants by summarizing the evidence found in several

surveys, some of which have already been discussed. McGreevey

also dealt briefly with the selectivity of migration in

Colombia.46



44Miguel Fornaguera, "Evaluacidn de los Saldos Migratorios
Internos," in Migraci6n y Desarrollo Urbano en Colombia, ed.
by Ramiro Cardona Guti6rrez (Bogota: ASCOFAME, 1970).
45
Reinaldo Posada, "Los Polos del Desarrollo Urbana en
Colombia," Revista de la Sociedad Interamericana de Planifi-
caci6n, II (September, 1968), 28-34.

4William McGreevey, "Causas de la Migraci6n Interna en
Colombia," in Empleo y Desempleo en Colombia, ed. by Centro
de Estudios sobre Desarrollo Economico (Bogota: Ediciones
Universidad de los Andes, 1968).


_ I









At least two works examine the process of urbanization

in Colombia from the perspective of the areas losing popula-

tion. One is an article by Dale W. Adams in which he examined

data from various studies conducted by the Land Tenure Center

at the University of Wisconsin and arrived at certain conclu-

sions concerning migration from rural areas and the implica-

tions of this movement for the development of Colombia's

agricultural sector.47 Rural depopulation was also the topic

of Carlos Escalante Angulo's M.A. thesis at the University of

Florida.48 Escalante documented the extent of population

loss in certain areas of Colombia.

Finally, a very recent study should be mentioned here,

particularly since it includes a substantial discussion on

the selectivity of migration to Bogota. Written by Marco

Fierro, the small monograph was presented in February of 1973

to the Universidad de los Andes in fulfillment of the require-

ments for a degree in economics.49 Although it does contain

an introductory section on the characteristics of the migrants

to Bogota, the main thrust of the work is to analyze the

economic causes and effects of population concentration


47Dale W. Adams, "Rural Migration and Agricultural Develop-
ment," Economic Development and Cultural Change, XVII (July,
1969), 527-538.
48Carlos Escalante Angulo,"A Demographic Study of Depopu-
lation in Colombia"(M.A. Thesis, University of Florida, 1967).

49Marco F. Fierro, Algunos Problemas Relacionados con la
Migraci6n Interna en Colombia (Bogota: CEDE, 1973).









throughout Colombia. In an approach somewhat similar to the

one used by Schultz, Fierro based his explanations of migra-

tion in terms of forces in the labor market. He also looked

at the repercussions these population movements were having

on the ability of the cities to economically absorb the influx.

Since all notable studies touching upon the topic of

internal migration in Colombia cannot possibly be discussed

here, some germane works have been excluded.50 Even so, it

is evident that the list of sources on this topic is a

lengthy one. It is even longer when it is considered that

all studies dealing specifically with migration to Bogota

have been excluded from this section. We now turn to a con-

sideration of these.


The Literature on Migration to BogotA


Five different teams of scholars have regarded the pro-

cess of migration to Bogota as significant enough to merit

close and meticulous study. Their contributions are dis-

cussed here as briefly as possible and in chronological order.


50See, for example, the following: Eduardo Acevedo
Latorre, "La Migraci6n Interna en Colombia," Revista del
Banco de la Repdblica, XXXI (October 20, 1958), 1163-1166;
Alejandro Angulo, Movimiento de la Poblaci6n Colombiana
(Bogota: Centro de Investigaci6n y Acci6n Social, 1969); and
Ramiro Cardona Gutidrrez and Gilda Echeverria Alarc6n,
"Estudio Descriptivo-Exploratorio sobre Migraci6n y Familia,"
Revista Paraguaya de Sociologfa, VIII (April, 1971), 115-127.









Miguel Urrutia M. and Luis Castellanos Ch. The first

significant study of migration to Bogota is carried out in

1962 under the auspices of the Corporaci6n Aut6noma Regional
51
de la Sabana de Bogota y los Valles de Ubate y Chiquinquira.

The investigation was directed by Miguel Urrutia M. and Luis

Castellanos Ch., who surveyed the population of Bogota with a

cluster sample of 1,602 households. Information was obtained

for every member of the household, so the total sample size

amounted to 14,563 persons. Of these, 50.2 percent were

labeled as migrants or non-natives of the city. The analysis

by Urrutia and Castellanos consisted largely of contrasting

the two subsamples with regard to age, sex, literacy, and

educational level. They also ascertained the migrants'

places of birth and of last previous residences, rural-urban

backgrounds, and whether the migrants moved to Bogota

directly or indirectly from their place of birth.

Marco F. Reyes Carmona. An economics student at the

Universidad de los Andes, Marco F. Reyes Carmona, re-inter-

viewed a systematic random sample of the respondents in the

study by Urrutia and Castellanos.52 Reyes selected every


51Miguel Urrutia M. and Luis Castellanos Ch., Estudio
Economico-Social de la Poblaci6n de Bogota (Bogota: Corpora-
cion Autbnoma Regional de la Sabana de Bogoti y los Valles
de Ubat6 y Chiquinquira, 1962).
52Marco F. Reyes Carmona, "Estudio Socio-Econ6mico del
Fendmeno de la Inmigraci6n a Bogota, Primera Parte," Economfa
Colombiana, XXII (October, 1964), 39-47; and Marco F. Reyes
Carmona, "Estudio Socio-Econ6mico del Fen6meno de la Inmigra-
cidn a Bogota, Segunda Parte," Economfa Colombiana, XXII
(November, 1964), 21-29.


I








ninth household of the migrant subsample in that previous

survey and administered to those he was able to locate (121

families) a schedule that was primarily intended to obtain

information on the motivations of the migrants in moving and

their occupational histories. His findings with respect to

those two factors constitute the principal contribution of

Reyes' study, although he did ascertain age, literacy, place

of origin, and other characteristics of the migrants.

William L. Flinn and associates. The studies by William

L. Flinn and his collaborators are of great importance to the

study of migration to Colombia's capital.53 Flinn's main

interest lies in the characteristics of the inhabitants of

the city's peripheral shantytowns. The rise of these subur-

ban slums is usually associated with a large influx of persons

into the city. Flinn utilized data he and his associates

gathered from surveys of several shantytowns in Bogota and

did a great deal to dispel various myths generally held about



53William L. Flinn, Rural to Urban Migration: A Colombian
Case (Madison: Land Tenure Lenter, 19bb); William L. Flinn,
"The Process of Migration to a Shantytown in Bogota, Colom-
bia," Inter-American Economic Affairs, XXII (Autumn, 1968),
77-88; William L. Flinn and James W. Converse, "Eight Assump-
tions Concerning Rural-Urban Migration in Colombia: A Three-
Shantytowns Test," Land Economics, XLVI (November, 1970),
456-466; William L. Flinn and David G. Cartano, "A Comparison
of the Migration Process to an Urban Barrio and to a Rural
Community: Two Case Studies," Inter-American Economic Affairs,
XXIV (Autumn, 1970), 37-48; William L. Flinn, "Rural and
Intra-Urban Migration in Colombia: Two Case Studies in
Bogotd," in Latin American Urban Research, ed. by Francine F.
Rabinovitz and Felicity M. Trueblood (Beverly Hills: Sage
Publications, 1971); and William L. Flinn, "Notes on Families
in Three Urban Settlements in Bogota," (mimeographed, n.d.).









such settlements. The surveys inquired into the residents'

demographic characteristics, their economic and family

statuses, their motivations, and most important, their migra-

tion history from place of birth to present residence, includ-

ing intra-city moves.

Of particular interest to the present study is Flinn's

refutation of the commonly-held notion that migration to

Bogota involves an intra-generational step process. His data

indicated that most of the migrants moved directly from their

place of birth without any intermediate stops. He did leave

open the possibility, however, of substantial inter-genera-

tional multi-stage migration. Flinn also challenged the

assumption that only migrants live in the city's peripheral

shantytowns. As much as ten to twelve percent of the resi-

dents of the barrios surveyed were native Bogotanos.

Ramiro Cardona Guti6rrez, Alan B. Simmons, and Ethel

Rodriguez Espada. An entire section of the book Las Migra-

ciones Internas, edited by Ramiro Cardona Guti6rrez, is

devoted to the topic of migration to Bogota.54 The editor,

together with Alan B. Simmons and Ethel Rodriguez Espada,

presented some of the findings of a survey conducted in 1968

of Bogota's population. The sample was designed so as to

include only married males between the ages of 20 and 54.


54Ramiro Cardona Gutierrez, Alan B. Simmons, and Ethel
Rodriguez Espada, "Migracidn a Bogota," in Las Migraciones
Internas, ed. by Ramiro Cardona Gutierrez (Bogota: ASCOFAME,
1972).









It was also decided to have two-thirds of the sample made up

of native Bogotanos and the rest composed of migrants who

were born in Boyaca and Cundinamarca. Additionally, the

sampling design stipulated the proportions of the migrant

subsample that had to fall in various categories of length of

residence in the city. The sample had to contain equal num-

bers of interviewees in each of three socio-economic classes.

In order to meet all these criteria, the investigators selected

their respondents through a quota approach, eventually ending

up with a sample size of 881. To these they administered a

27-page, 126-item schedule which covered not only questions

relevant to migration, but also included almost every type of

item found in social science instruments.

In view of the scope of the schedule, relatively few

results have been published to date. Fortunately, in "Migra-

ci6n a Bogota" one can find some of the results on migration

to the city. The selectivity of the migration is the topic

that received special attention from the researchers in the

article. The adaptation of the newcomers to the city is also

thoroughly discussed, particularly as it is reflected in the

occupational pursuits of migrants as compared to non-migrants.

Alan T. Udall. In a similar fashion to the works pro-

duced by economists which have been discussed in this chapter,

Alan T. Udall's dissertation, presented to the faculty of the

Department of Economics at Yale University in 1973, is

written outside of the frame of reference of the present


_ ___ _~___1_1_~ __ __









study.55 Nevertheless, since it does deal specifically with

the topic of migration to Bogota, it should be taken into

account in any review of the literature on the subject.

Besides, disciplinary barriers are not so impenetrable that

studies in one field hold no potentially valuable contribu-

tions to endeavors in another.

Udall utilized a wide variety of official statistics,

from censuses to annual economic reports, to trace the inter-

relationships between the trends in unemployment, wages, and

migration from 1920 to 1965 in Bogota. Of noteworthy interest

is his excellent economic history of the city. He attributed

many of the fluctuations in the supply and demand for labor

in the capital to changes in the rates of migration from

rural areas, which are in turn occasioned by structural

changes in the agricultural sector. It should also be men-

tioned that Udall discusses the way migration to the city is

selective of persons in the higher educational levels in the

places of origin. This, he maintains, is symptomatic of the

scarcity of unskilled jobs in the capital.












55Alan T. Udall, Migration and Employment in Bogota,
Colombia (Ph.D. Dissertation, Yale University, 1973).


____~_ _ ____ __ ___














CHAPTER III

THE ROLE OF MIGRATION IN THE GROWTH OF BOGOTA



While the purpose of this chapter is neither broad nor

ambitious, but rather well-defined and limited, it is an

indispensable first step towards an understanding of the

migration to Colombia's capital. Very simply, the task here

is to ascertain, as precisely as possible, the significance

of the part played by migration in the growth of Bogota.

To accomplish such a task it is necessary to focus on

a particular period of time during which the growth of the

city can be readily ascertained and that growth related to

estimates of the movement of persons to the city in the same

period. The importance of singling out a particular span of

years can be more readily appreciated if it is remembered

that the migrant population is here defined as those inhabi-

tants of Bogota who were born elsewhere. The census of 1964

enumerated 871,724 of these, a figure equal to 51.4 percent

of the city's total population. To conclude that the role

of migration in the growth of Bogota was to make the city

51.4 percent larger in 1964 would be to overlook the magni-

tude of the migration process and to fail to correlate it

with increases in the city's population.


_ _~_I__ 1_______^_1 1__11_____ _ __









The intercensal period from 1951 to 1964 is the ideal

one for the purposes of this chapter since it is the one

just prior to the enumeration that will be utilized through-

out this study. It would not be feasible to extend the

analysis to the 1938-1951 intercensal period because the data

are not available for the entire Distrito, but only for the

municipio of Bogota.

The population of the Distrito Especial more than doubled

between 1951 and 1964, growing from 715,250 to 1,697,311.

This increase of 982,061 inhabitants represented a very rapid

6.7 annual rate of growth. Expressed in very concrete terms,

the task of this chapter is to ascertain what proportion of

that increase of 982,061 should be attributed to migration.

While the question posed here is succinct, its answer

cannot be precise. The best that can be expected is to obtain

reliable estimates of net migration during the period. More-

over, since these estimates can be arrived at in various ways,

the approach here is to apply as many of these techniques as

the data will permit. In this manner it is hoped that com-

parisons of the results will enable us to fairly accurately

determine the range within which falls the contribution of

migration to the rapid growth of the city in the period in

question. Accordingly, the methods applied here may be desig-

nated as duration-of-residence analysis; two residual methods,

namely one based on vital statistics and another on census

survival rates; and the national-growth-rate method.


_ _~~~_~__ __ ____ _I_____ I_ __









Duration-of-Residence Analysis


The inclusion of an item on duration of residence in a

census schedule can provide information that is relevant to

the estimation of migration during a particular period of

time. Table 1 presents the classification of the migrant

population of Bogota according to the length of time they

have lived in the city. These data were obtained from the

item in the schedule that instructed the enumerator to ascer-

tain the duration of residence of the persons born in other

municipios.

It is immediately apparent from the wording of the item

that there is the possibility of having committed an error in

the enumeration of the Distrito's residents. Unless the

enumerators were given special instructions, the use of the

municipio to obtain migration data may mean that persons who

were born in one of the Distrito's municipios but enumerated

in another still within the boundaries of the special district

may have been counted as migrants. In an oral communication

to the author, however, Jesus Melgarejo Rey, director of the

1964 census, gave assurances that at the tabulation level all

such cases were dropped from the migrant category and treated

as natives of the Distrito. The figure of 871,724, therefore,

is the total number of persons residing in but not born in

Bogota, and should not include any of those who moved only

within the city.


~


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Obtaining migration data from the respondents at the

municipio level, however, does create another possible source

of error that is specific to the duration-of-residence data

and which is not rectifiable at the tabulation stage. A

person who was born outside the Distrito who, for example,

migrated ten years prior to 1964 to one of the municipios

within the special district and then two years prior to the

enumeration migrated again to another intra-city municipio,

upon being asked in 1964 how long he has lived in the muni-

cipio of his present residence he would probably answer two

years, although he was been living in the Distrito Especial

for ten. The only way to have avoided this error is to have

given the enumerators in Bogotd special instructions. It was

not possible, however, to ascertain if this was done, and even

then, if it was applied consistently by all enumerators. All

that can be done is to keep the possibility of this error in

mind in analyzing the figures in Table 1. The probable effect

of this inaccuracy was to lower fictitiously the length of

residence of some of the migrants in the Distrito.

Another difficulty with the data on duration of resi-

dence which makes estimation of migration during the inter-

censal period particularly troublesome is clearly indicated

by the second row of the heading of Table 1, which expresses

the length of residence in terms of the time of migration.

Since the last interval is an open one which includes all

those persons who moved to Bogota before July 16, 1952, it is

not possible to arrive at the exact number who migrated









between the census of 1951, held on May 9, and the census of

1964. Perhaps the only alternative is to take the sum of

other intervals, i.e., migrants who have lived in the Dis-

trito for less than twelve years, as a rough estimate of the

migration to the city during the intercensal period. That

sum equals 574,837. The margin of error would, of course, be

equal to the number of persons who migrated to the city

between May 9, 1951, and July 16, 1952.

Considering the difficulties inherent in statistics on

duration of residence, it is evident that in any case the

best that can be hoped for is a rough estimate. As the United

Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs pointed out,

this type of data suffers from numerous limitations that make

its accuracy questionable.1 The inaccuracies in stating

length of residence are in many ways similar to the problems

in age reporting: poor memory and deficient records, as well

as the usual heaping in years ending with zero and five.2

Shryock et al., in quoting the General Register Office of

Great Britain, pointed out that at least in the case of the

1961 Census of England and Wales there was a tendency for

residents to overstate their length of residence by one year.



United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs,
Manuals on Methods of Estimating Population, Manual VI:
Methods of Measuring Internal Migration (New York: United
Nations, 1970), pp. 16-17.
2Ibid.

3Henry S. Shryock et al., The Methods and Materials of
Demography (WashingtonD,-D-.: U.S. Government Printing Office,
1971), p. 659.


__ __ ~____II_~ ___ __ __









Given these difficulties, it can be concluded that the esti-

mate of 574,837 as the total migration into Bogota during the

intercensal period in question is indeed only a very rough

one, whose accuracy suffers significantly not only from the

size of the duration-of-residence time intervals, but also

from the general limitations usually associated with such data.

But even if it were fully reliable and accurate, this

estimate would still be insufficient as an indicator of the

role of migration in the growth of Bogota. What is necessary

is an estimate of net migration.

Zachariah has correctly pointed out that a net migration

estimate is the sum of the figures that represent the net

migration of the native and non-native populations of the

area. Expressed in more specific terms, the total net migra-

tion figure for Bogota during the period from 1951 to 1964 is

the algebraic sum of the following four figures corresponding

to the same time period: (1) the number of persons not born

in the Distrito who resided in it in 1951 but who moved from

it; (2) the number of persons not born in the Distrito who

migrated into it; (3) the natives of the Distrito who migrated

from it; and (4) the natives of the Distrito who migrated into

it. These components of total net migration are spelled out

here in detail in order to make clear the shortcoming of the

estimate derived from the data on duration of residence.

Since length of residence is only ascertained in the 1964


4K. C. Zachariah, Migrants in Greater Bombay (Bombay:
Asia Publishing House, 1968), p. 46.


I _









Colombian census for the migrant population, that is, the

population not residing in its place of birth, the estimate

that was previously arrived at for Bogota, 574,837, is in

effect only an estimate of one of these four components. Even

if it were totally accurate, it could only ascertain the total

number of persons not born in Bogota who moved there from 1951

to 1964. While this is probably the most significant of the

four figures in the formula, it is nevertheless only a partial

answer. Only when the other three figures are known will it

be possible to fully assess the role of migration in influ-

encing population change in Bogota.

Unfortunately, it is not possible with the available data

to complete the net migration equation. The data on migrants

from Bogota to other areas of Colombia, both on natives and

non-natives of the city, are not cross-tabulated by duration

of residence in the census volumes of other departamentos.

It is also impossible to ascertain component four in the list

above, the number of persons born in Bogota who lived else-

where in 1951, but who moved to Bogota in the intercensal

period and were consequently enumerated in their place of

birth in 1964. The inability to single out these return

migrants is, of course, one of the major drawbacks of data

based on place of birth.

It therefore becomes necessary to resort to other more

indirect but frequently used methods to estimate net migra-

tion. The available data make it possible to apply two

"residual" approaches.








The Residual Approach


Only three factors directly influence changes in a popu-

lation: fertility, mortality, and migration.5 This principle

is what underlies all of the techniques of estimating net

migration that Shryock et al. group under the rubric "resid-

ual methods."6 Basically, this general approach involves

ascertaining what portion of a population's growth is attrib-

utable to natural increase and then assuming that the differ-

ence between that figure and the observed total growth must

be the result of net migration. The various residual methods

differ in the way they arrive at estimates of natural in-

crease. Two of these will be utilized in this study: the

vital-statistics method and the census-survival-rate method.

The vital-statistics method. As presented by Shryock

et al., the formula for estimating net migration with the

use of vital statistics is:

M = (P2 Pi) (B D),


where M is the estimate of net migration, P2 is the total

population as determined in the second census, P1 is the

total population as determined in the first census, B is the

number of births, and D is the number of deaths. Substi-

tuting the terms above with the appropriate data for Bogota,


5T. Lynn Smith, Population Analysis (New York: McGraw-
Hill Book Company, Inc., 1948), p. 371.
6Shryock et al., The Methods and Materials of Demography,
p. 627.

Ibid., p. 628.









D.E., during the intercensal period from 1951 to 1964, the

equation can be solved as follows:

M = (1,697,311-715,250) (637,031-150,731)

M = 982,061 486,300

M = 495,761

This estimate is equivalent to 50.5 percent of the increase

in the Distrito's population from 1951 to 1964.

The major difficulty with this method lies not with its

logic, which is virtually flawless, but with the adequacy of

the data that are used to compute the result. The usual

underregistration of births and deaths can be expected to

cause us to overestimate the magnitude of the net migration.

Since it is the incompleteness of registration that consti-

tutes the weakness of the measure, it is important to briefly

discuss at this time the degree of inaccuracy in the vital

statistics being used here.

It should be noted first of all that since the Distrito

Especial de Bogota was only created in 1955, vital statistics

for the years 1951 to 1954 are only available for the muni-

cipio of Bogota. It was therefore necessary to estimate the

number of births and deaths taking place during those four

years in the municipios that were later annexed to Bogota to

form the Distrito. This was done by assuming that the same

birth and death rates prevailed in these annexed units as in

the principal municipio. The resulting estimates probably do

not have a margin of error that is very significant, par-

ticularly in view of the fact that the population of these


__









satellite municipios constituted only slightly over ten per-

cent of the total population of the Distrito in 1951.

A more important issue than adjustments for boundary

changes, however, is the question of the completeness of

registration. The birth and death statistics used here are

taken from the Anuario Estadistico del Distrito Especial de

Bogota, 1964, which are in turn derived from the ecclesias-

tical register. It is interesting that these statistics are

more complete than those procured from the civil register.

For the year 1964, for example, there were 64,614 baptisms

recorded in the church rolls, while only 46,236 births were

recorded in the civil register. The same is true for deaths:

14,051 in the church records and 10,498 in the civil register.9

This apparently greater coverage of the ecclesiastical regis-

ter holds true for every year from 1951 to 1964.

Although the application of the vital-statistics method

is not recommended for data from underdeveloped nations,10

it should be remembered that the area under study here is a

large metropolitan center and should have a relatively com-

plete registration of vital events. It is interesting that



Although the Distrito did not exist as an administrative
unit in 1951, the Departamento Administrativo Nacional de
Estadfstica published in the 1964 census report adjusted fig-
ures for 1951 which correspond to the new Distrito boundaries.

9Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadistica,
Anuario Estadfstico del Distrito Especial de Bogota, 1964
(Bogota: DANE, 1965), p. 45.

10Shryock et al., The Methods and Materials of Demography,
p. 630.


I








Smith estimates that the birth rate for Colombia as a whole

in 1964 should be at least 45 and probably hovers around 47

or 48.11 The birth rate for Bogota, computed from the sta-

tistics on baptisms used here, was 38.0 in 1964 and averaged

42.7 from 1951 to 1964. This is totally consistent with

Smith's national estimate since Bogotd can be expected to

have a birth rate that is somewhat lower than the Colombian

rate. Judging from the usually more troublesome birth sta-

tistics, therefore, the data on the vital processes used in

the estimate can be expected to be fairly accurate. Complete

accuracy, of course, cannot be assumed, so that still a cer-

tain amount of overestimation of the net migration can be

expected.

The other two figures inserted into the formula, the

total population of the Distrito Especial according to the

1951 and 1964 censuses, should not introduce a sizable amount

of error into the estimate. The degree of underenumeration
12
did not vary significantly in the two censuses, which means

that the extent of error in one census should be offset by

that in the other without any appreciable damage to the

accuracy of the estimate of net migration.13 It seems fairly


11T. Lynn Smith, "How High is the Birth Rate in Colombia?"
Proceedings of the International Union for the Scientific
Study of Population General Conference (London, 1969), p. 244.

1Ibid., p. 243.

1Shryock et al., The Methods and Materials of Demography,
p. 629.









safe to conclude, therefore, that according to the vital-

statistics method, slightly over fifty percent of the increase

in the Distrito's population from 1951 to 1964 is attributable

to migration.

The census-survival-rate method. This technique uses

the approach of comparing the regional and the national popu-

lations in order to arrive at an estimate of net migration.

It involves assuming that each age group in the population

of the geographic division under study will decline from one

census to another in the same proportion that the correspond-

ing age group will decline in the national population. The

changes in the national population are assumed to reflect

only the influence of the vital processes. The difference

between the number in each age cohort in the regional popula-

tion that are expected to have survived to the second enumera-

tion and the actual number enumerated is the estimate of net

migration.

Ideally, the number of years in the intercensal period

should be a multiple of the size of the age intervals. The

usual case is that there are ten years between each census

and the age groups are in five or ten-year intervals. This,

however, is not the case for the data being examined here,

since there are 13 years in the intercensal period and it is

not possible to obtain from both censuses the age data for

Bogota, D.E., in other than five-year intervals. Consequently,

the only alternative is to utilize a relatively crude approach

that will somewhat approximate the census-survival procedure.


I _









This consists of combining the age groups into intervals of

15 years and treating the intercensal period as if it were

15 years. Thus the age groups 15 to 29 in 1951, for example,

will be regarded as the cohort 30 to 44 in 1964.

Table 2 presents each step involved in the census-sur-

vival-rate procedure as well as the final results, which are

given in column seven. When estimates of net migration are

ascertained for all groups, they are summed to obtain the

total estimated net migration for Bogota, D.E., during the

period from 1951 to 1964. This figure, +388,143, represents

39.5 percent of the growth of the District's population

during that same period.

It is not surprising that the estimate this method

yields is significantly lower than the one obtained through

the use of the vital-statistics approach. The United Nations

Department of Economic and Social Affairs indicates that the

census-survival-rate method can be expected to render smaller

estimates than those obtained through the vital-statistics

method. They maintain that the reason for this is that the

former does not account for persons who migrated to the area

during the intercensal period but did not survive to be

enumerated in the second census.14 Shryock and his associates

corroborate this by indicating that Eldridge, Hamilton, and

Tarver independently obtained relatively lower estimates



14United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs,
Methods of Measuring Internal Migration, p. 35.


I -












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from the census-survival method than from the vital-statistics

approach.15

Aside from the degree of inaccuracy introduced by this

inherent deficiency of the method, it can be expected that

the particular procedure used here of utilizing 15-year age

intervals has also produced a significant amount of error.

As the U.N. manual notes: "the Census Survival Ratio method

cannot give estimates of net migration for persons born during

the intercensal interval."16 When that interval is only ten

years, this deficiency would not produce a very serious

underestimate, since all those unaccounted would only be

migrants under ten years of age at the time of the second

enumeration. But when the intercensal period is assumed to

have 15 years, as is the case here, a significant age group

in terms of migration is totally excluded from the estimate:

those ten to 14 years of age in the second census. This, of

course, is in addition to the exclusion of those under ten

years of age. In Elizaga's study of migration to Greater

Santiago, 14.2 percent of all male migrants and 13.1 percent

of all female migrants in his sample had moved to the capital
17
city when they were ten to 14 years of age.7



15Shryock et al., The Methods and Materials of Demography,
p. 635.

16United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs,
Methods of Measuring Internal Migration, p. 34.

17Juan C. Elizaga, Migraciones a las Areas Metropolitanas
de America Latina (Santiago: CELADE, 1970), p. 35.


_ _









It is clear that the adjustments that must be made in

order to be able to apply the census-survival technique allow

for a significant margin of error to enter into the net migra-

tion estimates. It is therefore probably best to discard the

estimate reached utilizing this approach and to rely more

heavily on the results afforded by the use of the vital-

statistics method.


The National-Growth-Rate Method


For lack of a better term, this procedure has been

labeled as the national-growth-rate method following the

terminology of Shryock and his associates.18 It is probably

the simplest of all the approaches utilized in this chapter.

The first assumption that must be made is that the national

population is a relatively "closed" one, that is, with little

or insignificant international migration, so that its growth

can be attributed only to the difference between the number

of births and deaths. Assuming further that the rate of

natural increase of a geographic division is equal to the

national rate, an estimate of the natural increase of that

area can be arrived at simply by applying the national growth

rate to the population of the geographic division according

to the first census. The difference between that estimate

of natural increase and the actual enumerated population in


18Shryock et al., The Methods and Materials of Demography,
p. 625.








that area in the second census can be attributed to migration.

While it cannot be assumed that Bogota's growth as a result

of the differences between the vital processes equaled the

nation's natural increase, it can be safely concluded that in

the period from 1951 to 1964 Colombia's growth was impercep-

tibly affected by international migration.19

Applying this method to the Colombian data for the inter-

censal period in question results in a net migration estimate

of +583,557 for Bogota, D.E. This figure is equal to 59.4

percent of the total increase in the Distrito's population

during that same period.

The discrepancy between this estimate and the one

arrived at through the vital-statistics method at first

appears puzzling. The estimates disagreed in a manner exactly

the opposite of which would have been expected. The vital-

statistics method, because of the inevitable underregistration

of vital events, can be expected to overestimate net migration.

The national-growth-rate method, on the other hand, should

underestimate the role of migration because Bogota can be

expected to have a lower natural increase than the total

population of Colombia. Nevertheless, the opposite pre-

vailed, since through the vital-statistics method it was

estimated that 50.5 percent of the increase could be attrib-

uted to migration.


1Smith, "How High is the Birth Rate in Colombia?" p. 243.









The puzzle starts unraveling itself when it is realized

that unlike the two residual methods utilized earlier, the

national-growth-rate method is not strictly an estimate of

net migration. It is a measure that renders an estimate of

the total population increase that can be attributed to migra-

tion. Migration not only adds population to Bogoti through a

positive balance between the movement of persons in and the

movement of persons out, but also through the fertility of

the migrants once in the city. Even if the estimates derived

from the vital-statistics and census-survival techniques were

absolutely accurate, they would still be understatements of

the total contribution of migration to the growth of Bogota.

As Weller, Macisco, and Martine have noted, it is a mistake

to dichotomize the components of urban growth in Latin America

between net migration and natural increase and assume that

the natives of the city are the only ones responsible for the

latter while the migrants' contribution to city growth is

only through the former. In fact, they argue, given the

selectivity of migration by age and the numerical importance

of migrants in the populations of many Latin American cities,

it is probable that migrants account for more than half of

the natural increase of many urban areas.20 It should be

added that, although many migrants contribute to a city's

natural increase as a result of unions formed after they


20Robert H. Weller, John J. Macisco, Jr., George B.
Martine, "The Relative Importance of the Components of Urban
Growth in Latin America," Demography, VIII (May, 1971),
pp. 230-231.


__









migrated, it is probably also the case that a substantial

portion of all children born in the city to migrant women

were conceived even before their mothers migrated.

Although it is very difficult to estimate the proportion

of Bogota's natural increase that can be attributed to the

fertility of migrants, perhaps an advance viewing of some of

the materials on age composition in Chapter V could give us

an idea of the magnitude of that proportion. Figure 4 in

that chapter is a dramatic illustration not only of the high

percentages of non-migrants under ten years of age, but also

of the much higher proportions of migrants as compared to

non-migrants in the reproductive ages. In the two tables

that immediately follow Figure 4, the numerical superiority

of migrants in reproductive ages is glaringly obvious. Look-

ing specifically at females, it can be seen that there are

more than twice the number of female migrants in the ages 15

to 24 than non-migrants in that age and sex category. The

ratio is even higher among those females 25 to 44, with

migrants outnumbering non-migrants better than three to one.

At the same time, there were 437,382 non-migrant children

under the age of ten accounting for 53 percent of the total

population born in the city.21 Obviously, migrant women must



21These non-migrant children, of course, are so labeled
because they were born in the city. Some of these, however,
are not only the offspring of migrants, but many actually
were conceived before the mother migrated to Bogota. Whether
they are regarded as migrants or non-migrants really depends
upon one's ideas of when life begins, an issue currently
being debated with biological and theological arguments but
which need not overly concern us here.


~___ ___ __.______.___ ~ __ __ _ I









have contributed a significant portion,, and probably more

than half, of all the children born in Bogota at least a

decade prior to the census. If the women in childbearing

ages that were born in Bogota were the only ones responsible

for the non-migrant children enumerated in the city in the

1964 census, their fertility ratio would be 211.3, undoubtedly

the highest of any population in the entire world.

In view of the importance of migrants in influencing the

city's fertility levels, it is not at all surprising that the

estimate derived from the national-growth-rate method is

higher than the one derived from the vital-statistics method.

While the latter only reflects net migration, the former can

be expected to estimate all of the increase in population that

resulted from migration. As presented earlier, that higher

estimate indicated that 59.4 percent of the growth of the

city from 1951 to 1964 can be attributed to migration. It is

well to recall that even that estimate is somewhat of an

understatement, since the growth rate of Colombia from 1951

to 1964 can be expected to be higher than the rate of natural

increase of the population enumerated in Bogota in 1951.


Summary


In an attempt to ascertain the role of migration in the

growth of Bogota, the period from 1951 to 1964 was singled

out for analysis and various techniques were applied to the

available data. Two of those techniques, duration-of-residence


~__ ~~______~~___ _~___~__ __~___~~__ __ ___._ __









analysis and the census-survival-rate method yielded estimates

that were considered unreliable and were consequently dis-

carded. The difficulty with the analysis of duration of

residence is that it can only assess the magnitude of the

movement into Bogota of persons who were born elsewhere,

without any indication of how many persons migrated from the

city or even of how many natives of the city returned to

their place of birth. The shortcomings of the census-survival

approach center around the impossibility of applying the

method to the data on Bogoti in the form in which they are

available.

The vital-statistics method undoubtedly yielded the most

reliable estimate of net migration obtained in the entire

chapter. While it can be expected to slightly overestimate

migration, through this procedure it was estimated that net

migration was responsible for 50.5 percent of the growth of

Bogota from 1951 to 1964. However, since migration also con-

tributed to the growth of the city through the fertility of

the migrants, even an absolutely accurate estimate of net

migration cannot fully approximate the role of the migration

process in Bogota's growth. Because of its computational

logic, the national-growth-rate method is a measure that does

include children of migrants born in Bogota in its estimate

of the total impact of migration. Applying that method to

the data on Colombia resulted in a figure that was equal to

slightly under 60 percent of the growth of the city from 1951

to 1964. Due to a minor deficiency in the logic of the


_ __






78


national-growth-rate method, even that high percentage is

considered to be a somewhat conservative estimate of the total

part played by migration in increasing the Distrito's popula-

tion.


~~~













CHAPTER IV

THE GEOGRAPHIC AND RESIDENTIAL ORIGINS
OF THE MIGRANTS TO BOGOTA



After having ascertained the importance of migration in

influencing the growth of Bogota, the next logical step is

to determine where these migrants originate. Place of origin

is one of the fundamental questions raised in any analysis of

the migration process. As Zachariah notes, the determination

of where the city derives its migrants from is essential to

understanding many of their characteristics.1

Studies of the different geographic sources of migrants

usually focus on identifying the principal centers of dis-

persion (to use Ravenstein's terms) or, as Eldridge and

others would prefer to call them, the significant "migration

streams." In addition to ascertaining these geographic ori-

gins, another dimension of the topic is analyzed here:

whether migrants come primarily from urban or from rural

areas. There are therefore two basic questions to which this

chapter is addressed: (1) identifying the geographic areas

that constitute the principal contributors of migrants to

Bogota; and (2) assessing the relative importance of the two



1K. C. Zachariah, Migrants in Greater Bombay (Bombay:
Asia Publishing House, 1968), pp. 48-49.


_ ___ _~_____II__ ___I_ I_ __









residential categories as sources of migrants to Colombia's

capital.

In dealing with the above issues, the researcher must

define what is meant by place of origin. Is it the place

where the migrant was born or is it his place of residence

immediately before moving to the area in question? Despite

the preferences of the investigator, usually this will be

defined for him or her by the data, which will in most cases

be available only by place of birth.

Fortunately, the data on the migrant population of

Bogota in the 1964 census of Colombia are tabulated to accom-

modate both definitions. Since place of birth and place of

previous residence represent two distinct approaches to the

determination of the origins of the migrants, they are ana-

lyzed separately and constitute the two principal divisions

of the present chapter.


Origins by Place of Birth


Unfortunately, the data on the place of birth of the

migrant population of Bogota in the 1964 census permit only

an analysis of geographic origins, that is, there is no

information on the residential status of the migrants in the

locality where they were born. Since the rural-urban origins

of the migrants, however, can be determined by place of pre-

vious residence, the analysis of these is given in the next

section.









The units utilized by the Departamento Administrativo

Nacional de Estadistica to indicate place of birth are the

departamentos, the major civil-administrative divisions of

Colombia. Including the Distrito Especial de Bogota, there
2
were nineteen of these departamentos in 1964. There were

also three intendencias and five comisarfas, but in the cen-

sus report these eight territories are all grouped into one

category. This poses no great difficulty, since they repre-

sent only a very small percentage of the total population of

Colombia.

Undoubtedly the best method of presenting the data on

place of birth is by the use of cartographic representations.

As Shryock and his associates note: "migration, because of

its definitional association with geographic areas, is

especially well suited to statistical mapping."3 T. Lynn

Smith and his associates have been particularly successful

in the application of cartographic techniques, not only to

migration analysis, but to a wide range of demographic and
4
social phenomena. In Figure 1 this means is used to show

This includes La Guajira, an intendencia which was raised
to departamento status the same year the census was taken.

3Henry S. Shryock et al., The Methods and Materials of
Demography (Washington,-7D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office,
1971), p. 666.
4-
T. Lynn Smith, Population Analysis (New York: McGraw-Hill
Book Company, Inc., 1948); Homer L. Hitt, "Three-Factor Carto-
graphic Representation," American Statistician, II (February,
1948), 21-22; T. Lynn Smith and Homer L. Hitt, The People of
Louisiana (Baton Rouge: Louisiana State University Press,
1952); and T. Lynn Smith, Brazil: People and Institutions
(4th ed., Baton Rouge: Louisiana State University Press,
1972), p. 681.
























































Figure 1.


The migrant population of Bogota, D.E., by
departamento of birth and by sex, 1964.









the distribution of the migrant population of BogotA accord-

ing to departamento of birth. Although a discussion of the

sex selectivity of the migration belongs in the next chapter,

that dimension has been included so as to take advantage of

the fact that the map permits the analysis of more than one

factor. It is also desirable to discuss sex selectivity here

since previous research has found that it is directly related

to the distance that migrants move.

Several noteworthy conclusions can be drawn from a study

of the illustration. The first and most significant one is

that the departamentos immediately surrounding Bogota are the

ones that contribute the largest proportion of the city's

migrants, while the share sent by those farthest away is

almost negligible. In other words, there is an inverse rela-

tionship between distance and the number of migrants each

departamento sends to Bogota. Cundinamarca, Boyaca, Tolima,

Santander, and Caldas account for 81.6 percent of the city's

migrants. The contribution of Cundinamarca alone, the depar-

tamento within which the Distrito Especial is located, amounts

to 34.1 percent.

These findings are in agreement with previous research.

Zachariah, for example, found that 42 percent of the migrants

to Bombay was born in the state in which the city is



Figure 1 has been prepared from data compiled and com-
puted from Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadis-
tica, XIII Censo Nacional de Poblaci6n y II de Edificios y
Viviendas, Resumen de Bogota, D.E. (Bogota: DANE, 1969),
p. 34. The actual figures used in the preparation of Figure
1 appear in the Appendix.


____~__~_ _____I__~___ s_l____l~_ I~









located.6 The relationship between migration and distance

was also confirmed by Taeuber for Tokyo, and by Smith for

Brazil's former Distrito Federal.7 It should be noted, how-

ever, that apart from these more recent sources, Ravenstein

has found this principle to operate in his study of migration

to London in the nineteenth century:

Looking to the proportion of migrants who have gone
from each county to London, we find that it bears a
most pronounced relation to distance, modified by
facility of access and the vicinity to other centers
of absorption.8

The last part of Ravenstein's statement above, that the rela-

tionship may be affected by other factors, particularly the

attraction of migrants by other urban areas, is of particular

importance here. It is apparent that there are two other

departamentos, Antioquia and El Valle, which in relation to

their distance to Bogota should have contributed more mi-

grants than they did to the capital. The fact that they did

not is the result of having within their own boundaries sig-

nificant "centers of absorption": Medellin in Antioquia and

Cali in El Valle. One other departamento, Meta, also sent to

Bogota a number of migrants that was significantly lower than

what would be expected given its relatively close proximity


6Zachariah, Migrants in Greater Bombay, p. 50.

7Irene Taeuber, The Population of Japan (Princeton:
Princeton University Press, 1958), p. 161; and Smith, Brazil
(4th ed.), p. 149.

8E. G. Ravenstein, "The Laws of Migration," Journal of
the Royal Statistical Society, XLVIII (June, 1885), p. 208.









to the Distrito. The very simple explanation for this is

that Meta only had 165,530 inhabitants in 1964, the second

smallest population of all the departamentos in Colombia.

In other words, its potential for contributing migrants is

very small.

It should also be noted that although immigration is a

fairly insignificant factor in population change in Colombia

as a whole, the proportion that it represents of migration

to Bogota is fairly perceptible, constituting 2.4 percent of

all movement of population to the city, a figure that is com-

parable to the contribution of departamentos such as Huila

and Antioquia.

Certain conclusions can also be reached about the rela-

tionship between distance and the second factor which the

map portrays: sex. The migrants from Cundinamarca, Boyacd,

Tolima, Meta, Huila, and Santander all include higher pro-

portions of females than of males. Among those who were born

in the more distant municipios, as well as the foreign-born,

the situation is exactly the opposite, males exceeding

females in number. This, of course, is in agreement with the

often-confirmed generalization that in short-distance moves

females will outnumber males while the reverse is true for

migrations over long distances.


Ibid., p. 197; and T. Lynn Smith and Paul E. Zopf, Jr.,
Demography: Principles and Methods (Philadelphia: F. A.
Davis Company, 1970), pp. 523-524.