• TABLE OF CONTENTS
HIDE
 Title Page
 Dedication
 Preface
 Table of Contents
 List of Tables
 List of Figures
 Introduction
 National income
 The supply of money
 The banking system and monetary...
 Money and income: A theoretical...
 Money and income in Colombia: A...
 Summary and conclusion
 Appendix A
 Appendix B
 Appendix C
 Bibliography
 Biographical sketch














Title: Money and income in Colombia, 1950-1960
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 Material Information
Title: Money and income in Colombia, 1950-1960
Physical Description: x, 207 leaves : illus. ; 28 cm.
Language: English
Creator: Geithman, David Trescott, 1938-
Publication Date: 1964
Copyright Date: 1964
 Subjects
Subject: Income -- Colombia   ( lcsh )
Money -- Colombia   ( lcsh )
Economics thesis Ph. D
Dissertations, Academic -- Economics -- UF
Genre: bibliography   ( marcgt )
non-fiction   ( marcgt )
 Notes
Thesis: Thesis - University of Florida.
Bibliography: Bibliography: leaves 200-206.
Additional Physical Form: Also available on World Wide Web
General Note: Manuscript copy.
General Note: Vita.
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Bibliographic ID: UF00097929
Volume ID: VID00001
Source Institution: University of Florida
Holding Location: University of Florida
Rights Management: All rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier: alephbibnum - 000559469
oclc - 13495728
notis - ACY4926

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Table of Contents
    Title Page
        Page i
        Page i-a
    Dedication
        Page ii
    Preface
        Page iii
        Page iv
    Table of Contents
        Page v
        Page vi
    List of Tables
        Page vii
        Page viii
        Page ix
    List of Figures
        Page x
    Introduction
        Page 1
        Page 2
        Page 3
        Page 4
        Page 5
    National income
        Page 6
        Page 7
        Page 8
        Page 9
        Page 10
        Page 11
        Page 12
        Page 13
        Page 14
        Page 15
        Page 16
        Page 17
        Page 18
        Page 19
        Page 20
        Page 21
        Page 22
        Page 23
        Page 24
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        Page 26
        Page 27
        Page 28
        Page 29
        Page 30
        Page 31
        Page 32
        Page 33
        Page 34
        Page 35
        Page 36
        Page 37
        Page 38
        Page 39
        Page 40
        Page 41
    The supply of money
        Page 42
        Page 43
        Page 44
        Page 45
        Page 46
        Page 47
        Page 48
        Page 49
        Page 50
        Page 51
        Page 52
        Page 53
        Page 54
        Page 55
        Page 56
        Page 57
        Page 58
        Page 59
        Page 60
        Page 61
        Page 62
        Page 63
    The banking system and monetary and credit policies
        Page 64
        Page 65
        Page 66
        Page 67
        Page 68
        Page 69
        Page 70
        Page 71
        Page 72
        Page 73
        Page 74
        Page 75
        Page 76
        Page 77
        Page 78
        Page 79
        Page 80
        Page 81
        Page 82
        Page 83
        Page 84
        Page 85
        Page 86
        Page 87
        Page 88
        Page 89
        Page 90
        Page 91
        Page 92
    Money and income: A theoretical approach
        Page 93
        Page 94
        Page 95
        Page 96
        Page 97
        Page 98
        Page 99
        Page 100
        Page 101
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        Page 104
        Page 105
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        Page 107
        Page 108
        Page 109
        Page 110
        Page 111
        Page 112
        Page 113
        Page 114
        Page 115
        Page 116
        Page 117
        Page 118
        Page 119
        Page 120
        Page 121
        Page 122
        Page 123
        Page 124
        Page 125
        Page 126
        Page 127
        Page 128
        Page 129
    Money and income in Colombia: A descriptive and theoretical integration
        Page 130
        Page 131
        Page 132
        Page 133
        Page 134
        Page 135
        Page 136
        Page 137
        Page 138
        Page 139
        Page 140
        Page 141
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        Page 144
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        Page 150
        Page 151
        Page 152
        Page 153
        Page 154
        Page 155
        Page 156
        Page 157
    Summary and conclusion
        Page 158
        Page 159
    Appendix A
        Page 160
        Page 161
        Page 162
        Page 163
        Page 164
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        Page 183
        Page 184
        Page 185
        Page 186
        Page 187
        Page 188
    Appendix B
        Page 189
        Page 190
        Page 191
        Page 192
        Page 193
    Appendix C
        Page 194
        Page 195
        Page 196
        Page 197
        Page 198
        Page 199
    Bibliography
        Page 200
        Page 201
        Page 202
        Page 203
        Page 204
        Page 205
        Page 206
    Biographical sketch
        Page 207
        Page 208
        Page 209
Full Text











MONEY AND INCOME IN COLOMBIA, 1950-1960





















By
DAVID TRESCOTT GEITHMAN


A DISSERTATION PRESENTED TO THE GRADUATE COUNQL OP
THE UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA
IN PARTLUI. FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS fOR THE
DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY












UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA

December. 1964






















Dedicated to

My Family














PREFACE

This treatise reflects the growing recognition that there

is far too little theoretical analysis in contemporary studies of

underdeveloped areas, -hile at the same time according some credence

to the view that there is too little reality in current analytical

theory. Hopefully, the following represents one small step towards

the desired balance.

The platform for this attempt is the Colombian economy during

the 1350's. Yet any historical study that attempts to be both manage-

able and unified must be organized around some focus. The focus of

this study is on the growth of national income and the supply of

money in Colombia. The unifying agent is the theoretical model

developed in the latter chapters of the study. Thus, the entire

treatise is baaed on reasoning from the particular to the general.

The author's obligations in this undertaking are manifold.

The names of all of those who lent material assistance are too

numerous to list. However, the following must be singled out for

their patient reading of the manuscript and constructive criticism:

Professors R. W. Bradbury, E L. Jackson, H Kantor and A Ramlrez,

all of the University of Florida, In addition, the author is greatly

in debt to Professors C. C. Curtis 2nd R. L. A. Sterba who have read

and criticized all or part of the theoretical aspects of the study.

As is customary, however, the author accepts complete responsibility

for the errors which remain.










The author wishes to express special acknowledgement to the

many Colombians who lent much of their time and gave freely of their

hospitality to the author and his family during their stay in Colombia.

In particular, four fine friends must be mentioned by name:

Professors Anacleto Apodaca, Jose Miguel Bernal, Albert H. Flores and

Reynaldo Escarpeta, all of the Universidad del Valle, Call. The

author expresses appreciation to Douglas Pijak for his drafting of

the illustrations.

A National Defense Education Act fello,'tdp enabled the

author to devote his full attention to this project; and a grant from

the Caribbean Area Research Program at the University of Florida was

of substantial assistance.

The author's obligation to his wife is immeasurable. She

not only typed every draft of the manuscript but did so patiently

and in good humor. Equally amazing was her ability to tolerate,

sustain and encourage her husband through the many months spent in

the preparation of this study. Without her complete cooperation the

task of writing this study would have been impossible.















TABLE OF CONTENTS



Page

PREFACE . . . . . .. .. ..... . . . . ill

LIST OF TABLES . .. . . . . . . . . . vii


LIST OF FIGURES . . . .


INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . .


II. NATIONAL INCOME . . . . . . . .


2-1 Introduction . .
2-2 Structural Change:
and Investment .
2-3 Structural Change.


x


6

6


The Composition of Oitput


. . . . 1
The Pattern of Employment and


the Foreign Trade Sector . . . .
Economic Policies to Mid-194 . . . . .
Economic Policies after Mid-1954 . .
Economic Policies and the Balance of Payments .
Conclusion . . . . . . . . .


III. THE SUPPLY OP MONEY . . . . . . . . .

3-1 Types of Banking Institutions and Bank Deposits .
3-2 Alternative Money b.ipply Concepts . ...
3-3 The Money Supply . . . . . .
3-4 The Determinants of the Money Supply . .

IV. THE BANKING SYSTEM AND MONETARY AND CREDIT POLICIES .


The Structure oi the Banking System . . .
The Gold Exchange Standard . . .
Discretionary Powers and the Policies of
the Centr l B.nk . . . . . . .
The Commercial Loan Doctrine . ..
The Specialized Credit Institutions ...
Summary and Conclusion . . . .


18
25
30
39
41

42

42
44
48
49

64

64
66


.


.


.
.
.
.


.
.










Chapter Page
V. MONEY AND INCOME: A THEORETICAL APPROACH ...... 93

5-1 Introduction .. . . .. . .. )3
5-2 The Keynesi.n Analysis and the Underdeveloped
Economies: A Word of Caution . . . .93
5-3 The Invectmrnt function . .. ... . 100
5-4 The Savings Supply Function .. . . . .. .105
5-5 The I' Curv . . .. .. . .. 107
5-6 Liquidity Preference Analysis ... . .. .. 112
5-7 The Transactions, Precautionjry and Speculatlve
Motives and the Velocity of Money .. . . .115
5-8 The Consoliddred Dneand Schedule for Money . . 121
5-: The LM Curve. . . . ... . .. .. .. . 124

VI. MONEY AND INCOME IN COLOMBIA: A DESCRIPTIVE AND
THEORETICAL INTEGRATION ... . . . . . 130

6-1 Intruduction .. ... . . .. 130
6-2 The IS and LM Equilibrium . .... . . 130
6-3 The Slope of the IS Curve in Colombia . . 130
0-4 The Savings and Investment Punctions and the
1S Carves Under Dynamic .C.ndtt ons .. . . 133
6-5 The Supply and Demand for b.-ney Under Dynamic
Conditions . . .. . . .. .. .. . 136
o-b The IS and LM Equilibrium Under Dynamic
Conditions and the I4ickseliarn Inflationary Gap 143
6-7 The LM Curves Under Dynamic Conditions and the
Olicl:ellian Tnflationary Gap . . .. . 149
6-8 The Demand for Money and the Velocity of Money .153

VII. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION ... . . . . . . .158

APPENDLX A . . . . . . . . .. ..... 160

APPENDIX B ..... . . . . . 183

APPENDIX C .. . . . . . . . 194

BIBLIOGRAPHY . . . . . . . . . . . . . 200

BIOGRAPHY . . . . . . . . . . . . 07














LIST OF TABLES


Table Page

1-1 Indexes of Colombian National Income, Huney Supply,
Wholesale Prices, and Real Cash Balances and Income
Velocity, 1950-1960. . . . . . . . . . 3

2-1 Selected National Income Accounts in Current Pesos
and in Constant Pesos of 1158, 1950-1960 . ... . . 8

2-2 Growth of National Income at Factor Cost Measured
in Constant Pesos, 1950-1900 .. .. . . 10

2-3 Percentage Composition of the Value of Production of
Gouds and Services, Micasured in Cun.tant Pesos of 1)50,
by Economic Activities, 1925, 1945, 1953 . . . 12

2-4 Percentage Composition of the Value of Gross Domestic
Product at PFctor Cost, Measured in Constdnc Pesos of
1958, by Economic Activities, 1950-1960 . . . .. 13

2-5 Percentage Composition of the Value of Fixed Cross
Investment, Mt-asured in Conatant Peso. .f 11"50, Lb,
Type of Investment, 1925-1953 ....... . 16

2-6 Percentage Composition of the Value of Fixed Gross
Investment, Measured in Constant Pejos of 1j58, by
Type of Investment, 1950-1o.0 . . . . . . 17

2-7 Percentage DLstribution of Active Population, by
Economic Activities, 1925, 1945, 1953 . . . . 1

2-8 Percentage of Active Population in Industry, 1950-1960 20

2- Value of LEports of Goods and Services as a Percentage
of Gross National Product at Market Prices, L950-1.iO 21

2-10 Percentage Composition of Gross Natlonal Product at
Market Prices, Measured in Constant Pesos of 1958,
by Economic Sector, 1950-1.'60. .... .. .... ...... 29

2-11 Factors Influencing the Peso Value of Coffee Exports
and the Internal Income of the Coffee Sector, 1952-1)58. 33

vii






;11111111111111111111111111111111a1111 1










Table Page

3-1 Four Alternative Stocks of Honey, 1950-L9b0 .... ... 46

3-2 Composition of the Honey Stock at End of Year,
1943-1960 . . . . . . . . . . 50

3-3 The Determinants of the Money Supply on December 31,
1949-1960 . . . .. . . . . . . . . 54

3-4 The Determinants of the Money Supply on December 31,
1949-1960 . . . . . . . . . . 56

3-5 Percentage Distribution of Banco de la Republica
Loans and Discounts, According to Type of Borrower,
on December 31, 1949-19b0 . . . . . .... O

4-1 Estimated Yields of Selected Colombian Bond Issues,
1950-19o0 . .. . . .. . . . . . . 75

4-2 DivLdend Yields of Selected Securities Traded at Stock
Exchange of Bogota, 1955-1960 . .. .. . ... 76

4-3 Percentage Distribution of Commercial Bank Loans dnd
Discounts, by Economic Activity, on December 31,
1452-1960 . .. . . . . . . 86

A-I Official Wholesale Price Index by Major
Classification, 1950-L960 ...... . . . . . 161

A-2 General or Home and Import Goods Wholesale Price
Index, lr50-1960 . . . . . . . . 164

A-3 Production Value by Category of Good and for all
Goods, 1953, 1955-19o0 . . .. . . . 167

A-4 Production Volume by Category of Good and for all
Goods, 1953, 1955-1960 . . . . . . . ... 174

A-5 Weights Applicable to the Implicit Price Index . .. 177

A-b Weighted Production Value by Category of Good and
for all Goods, 1953, 1955-1960 ... . . . . 178

A-7 Weighted Production Volume by Category of Good and
for all Goods, 1953, 1955-1960 . . . . . . 180


viii

















A-9 Consumer Price Index for Non-Salaried Workers in
Three Major Cities, 1950-1-bO . . . . . ... 18o

A-10 National Consumer Price Index for Salaried and
Non-Salaried Workers, and Official Wholesale Price
Index, 1954-1060 . . ... . . . . . .187

C-l The Determinants of the Money Supply, on December 31,
1949-1960 . . . . . . . . . .194














LIST OF FIGURES


figure Page

5-1 The Investment-Demand Schedule . . . . . 102

5-2 A Family of Investment-Demand Schedules . . . ... 105

5-3 A Family of Savings Supply Schedules . . . ... 107

5-4 The Four Possible Relationships Between the Investment-
Demand and SAvlngs Supply Schedules . . . .. 10

5-5 The Four Possible Hicksian IS Curves . . . ... 11l

5-6 The LT Function . . ... . ...... ..... .115

5-7 The LL Function ... ... ... . . . ... 120

5-8 The Consolidated L Schedule . . . ..... . 122

5-9 The Four Possible Relationships Between the Consolidated
Demand Schedule for Honey and the Total Money Supply . 125

5-10 The Four Possible LM Curves .. . . . . . ... 128

6-1 The IS-LM Equilibrium . . ... . . ... . 132













CHAPTER I


INTRODUCTION

This study is an attempt to blend two things: the first is

as examination of some of the mala aggregative facts of the Colombian

economy during the decade of the fifties; the second is the comstruc-

tion of a model that gives insight to these facts.

The plan of the work is fairly st lghtforward. In Chapters

II, III and IV we shall center our attention on the growth of national

income, with special recognition of the role played by investment

demoad; on the rapid expansion of the money supply; and on some of

the moat ignif leant economic aspects of the Colombian banking system

and monetary and credit policies pursued during the decade.

Chapters V and VI construct and apply to the Colombian economy

a theoretical model in the Keynesian tradition in order to demonstrate

the interrelated aspects of investment demand, savings supply, the

demand for mosey, and the supply of money. The intention will be

to construct a framework of some value for explaining, and possibly

predicting. experiences in other undderveloped countrir similar

to those of Colombia while, at the same tie, relating the. theoretical

constacruct to the Colombian situation between 1950 and 1960.

Of the three appendixes that follow the main body of the study,

the first concerns some technical aspects of the computation of the

official Colombian wholesale price index and presents a method designed



I
.: aii[iiiiiiii ;;:;; ii[











to verify its reliability. The second appendix describes and examines

the Colombian system of national income accounting, and the third

contains the method employed In order to approximate the supply of

money by isolating four primary determinants of the money supply.

At the very outset, it will not be amiss to indicate the

relative magnitude of the variables under study. Thus, Columns 1,

2 and 4 of Table 1-1 indicate that between 1950 and 1960 the level

of national income rose by 219 per cent, the supply of money by 230

per cent, and the general level of wholesale prices by only 119

per cent.1 With t.o exceptions, there were no years during the decade

when all of these three variables did not increase.

The ratio of national income to the supply of money, commonly

called the income velocity of money, exhibited a marked tendency to

decline during the decade of the fifties, as shown in Column 3 of

Table 1-1. Thus, during the period the quantity of money whlch the

public wished to hold increased far more rapidly than income. The

generally increasing liquidity of the Colombian economy, as reflected

in the declining velocity of money, served to prevent an even more

rapid increase in the price level and the level of national income.2


1See APPENDIX A.

2Since an increasing price level is an index of inflation,
it is generally thought to be undersirable. However, a rapidly rising
level of national income may also be an indication of inflation. This
is because national income is conceptually the quantity of output
of goods and services times the price level at 4hich these goods and
services are sold. Consequently, national income may conceivably
rise only in response to rising prices, and, therefore, merely in-
dicate inflation and not a growth of output. This is a particular
danger under conditions of relative supply inelasticity such as existed
in Colombia.














TABLE 1-1

INDEXES OF COLOMBIAN NATIONAL INCOME, HONEY SUPPLY,
WHOLESALE PRICES, AND REAL CASH BALANCES
AND INCOME VELOCITY, 1950-1960a


National
Income Real Cash
in Official Balances
Current Money Income Wholesale e [Col. (2)-
Year Pesos Sapplj Velocity Price Index Col. (4)]
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)


1950 100.0 100.0 7.0 100.0 100.0
1951 112.0 98.8 8.0 107. l1.b
1952 121.0 122.1 7.0 lOo.i 114.5
1353 134.7 140.5 0.8 112.8 124.6
1954 15 1. 171.5 6.S 120.7 142.1
1955 14.5 18o.3 6.2 121.0 133.2
195o 185.1 219.6 5.9 131.9 u10 .5
1357 216.4 207.2 5 7 163.') 163.0
1958 240.7 311.u 5.4 1)2.2 162.1
1959 27).1 3b4.3 5.4 210.7 172.s
1960 319.2 330.0 5.8 21).5 177.7


"For sources of information, see references cited in Columns
(1), (2), and (4).

bSee Chapter II, Table 2-1.

CSee ChJpter III, Table 3-1, Column 2

dNMtional income in current pesos divided by the average money
supply.

eSee APPENDIX A, Table A-I.


..... ii.i. ii.ii.i i i ii niii.iii.i.i.i.iii











As with the declining velocity of money, the increasing level

of real cash balances, or the ratio of the money supply to the level

of wholesale prices, shown in Column 5 of Table 1-1, also reflected

the generally increasing liquidity of the Colombian economy during

the period under study.

Ic is clear from these brief statements that the Colombian

economy which emerged from the disruptions of the Second World War

and the immediate post-iar period produced a variety of distinguishing

features -- moderate inflation, a rapid increase in the supply of

money, a significant growth in the level of national income -- admired

with the rise of Large government budgets.3

Yet the end of the decade of the fifties appears to form a

discernable line of demarcaLion between the years 1)50 to 1760 and

the first third of the 1i60's.

While the eleven years since the mid-century point witnessed

the rise of large government budgets in Colombia, government expendi-

tures did not show a tendency to consistently exceed revenues. Indeed,

a majority of the eleven years were years of budgetary surplus. The

opposite has been true since 1960. Not only has there been a govern-

ment deficit in eery year since 1960, but the size of each annual

deficit has been a multiple of the largest deficit incurred during

che decade of the fifties.


3See Chapter II.











Similarly, the rate of increase of the money supply, quite

rapid during the 1950's, has tended to rise slightly since 1960.

Perhaps of more importance, however, has been the significant

rise in the rate of inflation since l9JO. While the level of whole-

sale prices rose only 119 per cent during the eleven years 1950 to

1360, from 1960 to April of 1964 this index rose by a further 116

per cent. Similarly, the cost of living index rose by 161.3 per cent

from 1960 to April, 1964 while during the entire period 1950 to 190o

this index rose by only 34 per cent.

These factors in general and the increasing tempo of inflation

in particular tend to suggest that our analysis be confined to the

period 1950 to 1)60, a period of moderate inflation.













CHAPTER II


NATIONAL INCOME


2-1 Introduction

Whether measured in ieal or money terms, conceived of as in-

come or prodJct, net or gross, or expressed on a total or a per capital

basis, the performance of the Colombian economy between 1950 and l)rO

must be viewed as the result of competing and, in some cases, con-

Lrddictory forces

On the negative side there vere posed a series of obstacles

to economic development. In Colombia, as in most of Latin America,

these factors exerted strong restrictive pressures throughout the

period under study. Six of the most serious obstacles to growth may

be mentioned, while e some Pill require further comment at a later point.

These six impediments were, first, an inadequate knowledge and use

of natural resources, second, a deficiency of investment in the infra-

structure and for productive purposes, third, a lack of diversification

of production, fourth, the vulnerability of the internal economy due

to excessive dependence upon the export sector, fifth, the lack of a

large entrepreneurial class and of the corporate form of enterprise;

and sixth, certain prevailing institutions which tended to create

economic bottlenecks, sich as the land-tenure system, an inadequate











credit structure, the absence of a stable and competent public ad-

ministration, political instability, and, in some areas, the lack of

a homogeneous culture.'

In spite of these impediments, however, the decade of the

fifties was an encouraging one for the Colombian economy, involving

a mitigation of many of the obstacles to its growth, progressive

industrialization, and far-reaching, radical changes in the basic

economic structure. The structural changes themselves may prove to

be of far greater importance to the future development of the economy

than the growth of real income which occurred during the same period.

The most significant national income concepts and their cor-

responding values for the years 1.150 to 1960 are summarized in Table

2-1.2 From this cable it can be seen that the most comprehensive

measure of national income, Gross National Product at market prices,

brew by over 236 per cent if measured in current pesos and by almost

50 per cent if measured in pesos of a constant value. On the other

hand, National Income measured in current pesos rose by almost 220

per cent, and by slightly over 53 per cent if measured in constant

pesos.


1U.S., Congress, Joint Economic Committee, Subcommittee on
Inter-American Economic Relationships, Hearings, Economic Developments
in South America, Appendix C, 87th Congress, 2nd Session, 160, pp.
133-135.

See APPENDIX B for a brief discussion of the structure of
the National accounts as they now exist la Colombia. The concepts
contained in Table 2-1 conform to this method.














TABLE 2-1


SELECTED NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS IN CURRENT PESOS AND IN
CONSTANT PESOS OF 1)58, 1950-L[9O'
(in millions of pesos)



Year 1)50 1951 1952 1953


Current Pesos

Constant Pesos
of 1i58


Current Pesos

Constant Pesos
of 1j58


Current Pesos

Constant Pesos
of 1)58


Current Pesos

Constant Pesos
of 1958

Current Pesos

1)50 = 100

Constant Pesos
of 1958

1450 = 100


7,777.5 8,843.1 9,570.1 10,647.7


15,037.7 15,127.1 16,097.0 17,562.0


7,0.0.5 6,940.9 ',650.? 10,734.7


14,688.8 15,146.6 1 ,102.0 17,081.0


7,400.5 8,345.2 3,003.4 10,006.0


13,754.2 14,177.3 15,070.3 15,940.8


o,919.) 7,755.u 8,356.4 ),299.0


12,561.5 12,812.7 13,631.2 14,351.0


Cross
National
Product
at Market
Prices

Gross
Domestic
Product
at Market
Prices

Cross
Domestic
Product
at Factor
Cost

Net
Domestic
Product
at Factor
Cost

Net
National
Product
or
National
Income
at Faccor
Cost


7,657.8 8,275.b 9,212.0

112.0 121.0 134.7


12,53).8

102.3


13,395.8

103.3


14,088.3

114.9


b,83o.

100.0


12,2o0.8

100.0


"anirrep: "Cuentas Nacionales, 1950-1461" (Departamento
de InvestigacLones Economicas, Banco de la Republica), pp. 1-3, 12-17.
(MimeoEraphed.) For method of calculation, see APPENDIX B.















TABLE 2-1--Extension


1954 1955 135b 1957 1958 135) 1960


12,671.7


19,45 .3


12,758.8


18,2o2.3


11,808.4


lu, 4.1


11,014.1


15,278.3

10, 35.0

159.9


15,055. 1

122.8


13,153.u


19,540.8


13,249.8


18, 76..


12,254.4


17,675.6


11,342.2


15,786.2

11,246.0

164.5


15,579.7

127.1


14,708.0


20,321.4


14,862.8


19,745.7


13,875.5


18,407.6


12,813.2


16,438.6

12,658.4

185.1


1 193.2

132.1


17,500.1


20,384.6


17,810.6


20,186.2


1o,73- .9


18,842.2


15,107.0


16,672.7

14,736.5

216.4


16,272.1

132.7


20,267.4


20,267.4


20,682.5


20,682.5


1 ,311.0


19,311.0


10,874.4


16,874.4

16,459.3

240.7


16,459.3

134.2


23,150.9


21,592.2


23,472.1


22,128.6


21,943.6


20,627.0


19,402.7


18,294.9

19,081.5

279.1


17,950.9

146.5


26,162.2


22,412.4


2o,417.b


23,041.8


24,744.2


21,442. 6


22,077.4


19 ,116.8

21,822.0

319.2


18,861.8

153.8


iiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii














TABLE 2-2

GROWTH OF NATIONAL INCOME AT FACTOR
COST MEASURED IN CONSTANT PESOS, 1)50-1960


Per Capita
National National
National Income Per Capita Income
Income in National in
in Constant Income Constant
Constant Pesos in Pesos
Pesos of 1?58: Constant of i958:
of 158 Annual Pesos Annual
(in Millions Percentage of 1l588 Percentage
Year of Pesos) Increase (in pesos) Increase

(1) (2) (3) (4)


1150 12,260.8 1,0I 5.9
1951 12,539.8 2.3 1,070.4 -2.4
I 52 13,3 d5.d 0.8 L,118.. 4.5
1953 14,088.3 5.2 1,150.7 2.4
1954 15,055.1 t.'9 ,202.i 4.5
1455 15,57).7 3.5 1,217.6 1.2
1956 16,1)3.2 3.) 1,238.0 1.7
1)57 16,272.1 .5 1,217.0 -1.7
1i58 16,454.3 1.2 1,204.1 -1.0
1959 17,95o.) .1 1,285.0 6.7
19b0 18,bol.8 5.0 1,320.4 2.8

Annual
Average
Rale of
Increase 4.4 1.1


aComputed by dividing estimated population into Column (1).











The annual growth of real National Income, or National Income

measured in constant pesos, is shown in Table 2-2, both by total and

as a per capital measurement. The annual average rate of growth of

re.l National Income between 1950 and 1.i60 without consideration of

the growing population was 4.4 per cent, while on a per capital basis

the rate of growth averaged 1.9 per cent.

The latter measurement of real growth may, at first glance,

seem disappointly low. Growth of real per capital National Income

probably does most accurately gauge the state of economic welfare and

the rising standard of living which the population is able to maintain.

Yet as a measure of the strength and output of the economy

as a -hole such a concept may contain a serious shortcoming. Real

per capital income may rise only very slowly due to an abnormal popu-

lation expansion. This appears to have been the case in Colombia

here, during the decade of the 1950's, population expanded by a

fantastic 33 per cent. As a result, the per capital measurement seems

to contain an untoward blas against the performance of the Colombian

economy.


2-2 Structural Change: The Composition of Output and Investment

The trend of industrialization and structural change in the

domestic economy began many years prior to the beginning of the period

under examination in this study and was maintained during this period.

The most obvious evidence of this factor was indicated by the changing

composition of the output of the economy, shown in Tables 2-3 and 2-4.











-hile these tables are not directly comparable because of slightly

differing bases of total value, they clearly argue that the structure

of the economy has been undergoing significant and widespread change.


TABLE 2-3

PERCENTAGE COMPOSITION OF THE VALUE OF PRODUCTION
OF GOODS AND SERVICES, MEASURED IN CONSTANT PESOS
OF li50, BY ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES,
1925, 1945, 1953'
(In per cent)


Year 1925 1945 1953


Agriculture and Livestock 58.8 47.0 36.9
Mining 1.5 3.7 3.7
ManufacturIng 7.6 13.4 17.2
Artisan Industry 2.) 3.1 3.8
Constriction 2.6 o.1 4.8
Transport 2.3 4.2 7.4
Energy, Communication,
Public Utilities 0.4 0.7 1.2
Government 5.7 5.5 o.9
Trade, Finance, Services 8.7 10.2 12.9
Personal Income from RentJls 'S.5 6.1 5.2
Total Value of Production 100.0 100.0 100.0


aSource: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social
Affairs, Economjic Commission for Latin America, Analyses and Proiec-
tions of Economic Development, III. The Economic Development of
Colombia (E/CH.12/3o5/Rev. 1, November, li56) (Geneva, 1957), p. 16.


The traditional rural economic activities -- agriculture and

livestock -- had been diminishing in importance from 1925 to the

beginning of the decade under study. From 1S50 to 19u0 the same trend

continued, reducing the contribution of these activities from 40.1

per cent to 34.7 per cent of the total money value of current output.














TABLE 2-4

PERCENTAGE COMPOSITION OP THE VALUE OF
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AT FACTOR COST,
MEASURED IN CONSTANT PESOS OF 1958,
BY ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES, 1950-1960a
(In per cent)



Year 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954


Agriculture and Livestock 40.0 39.3 39.5 37.5 36.0
Fish and Wildlife 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Forestry 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Mining 3.8 4.1 3.8 3.8 3.7
Manufacturing 13.9 13.9 14.0 14.4 14.8
Construction 2.8 2.6 2.6 3.1 3.8
Commerce 12.8 12.9 12.7 13.6 14.2
Transport 5.3 5.7 6.1 6.2 6.4
Communications 0 5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6
Energy and Public
Utilities 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6
Banking and Finance 1.8 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.2
Net Housing Rental
Income 5.2 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.7
Government 5.0 5.3 5.2 5.6 5.2
Personal Services 8.0 8.0 7.7 7.5 7.4
Total Value of Gross
Domestic Product 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0


aSource: "Cuentas Nacionales, 1950-1961" (Departamento de
Investigaciones Econmlicas, Banco de la Reppblica), p. 15. (Mimeogra-
phed.)














TABLE 2-4 -- Extension


1)55 1956 1957 1958 1959 19b0


35.5 35.2 3o.5 36.7 3o.1 34.7
0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
3.6 3.8 3.8 3.8 4.1 4.1
15.1 15.b 15.9 lo.2 11.4 1o.7
3.o 3.9 3.6 3.4 3.5 3.2
13.b 12.9 12.4 12.1 12.5 12.8
6.9 (.7 0.3 5.7 5.8 0.2
0.o 0.o 0.b 0.7 0.7 0.7

0.0 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.)
2.4 2.0 2.2 2 1 2.0 2.2

4.7 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.1 5.3
5.2 5.1 4.i 5.2 4.9 5.0
7.5 7.6 7.6 7.7 7.5 7.6

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0











The opposite trend existed in several economic activities

associated with economic development, the growth of more highly

productive economic activity, and a decreasing reliance on export

activities and raw material production. The importance of manufac-

turing industry is, in this connection, most relevant. This type

of activity gre< to represent nearly 17 per cent of the value of

all output by 190O, with a significant increase in the period 1950

to l)o0.

Other similar types of activity related to development and

structural change also grew in relative importance. Mo~t significant

in the period before I'150 was the growth of the transport, trade,

finance and service sectors, while after 1950 the growth of construc-

tion activity 3as highly important.

Concoimmitant .ith the changing relative importance of rural

traditional economic activities and the newer more productive activities

was a similar pattern of change in the composition of fixed investment

and in the distribution of the economically-active population. These

changes are reflected in Tables 2-3 through 2-8.

The composition of fixed investment is of strategic importance.

While the total amount of fixed investment (measured in constant pesos

of 1950) Increased by 81.8 per cent from the period 1925-29 to the

1945-53 period and by 51.9 per cent (measured in constant pesos of

1958) from 1950 to 1960, the distribution of these gains *as not evenly

allocated by economic activity. For example, between 1925 and 1953

investment in agricultural machinery and equipment grew by only 4.o

per cent while investment in industrial machinery and equipment rose














TABLE 2-5

PERCENTAGE COMPOSITION OF THE VALUE OF
FIXED GROSS INVESTMENT, MEASURED IN
CONSTANT PESOS OF 1)50,
BY TYPE OF INVESTMENT, 1)25-1953a
(in per cent)


Year 1925-29 1930-38 1939-44 1945-53


Machinery and Equipment 3b.4 22.0 ib.2 34.5
Building 12.2 lb.4 23.2 24.1
Other Construction Activities
and Improvements 51.4 61.b 60.6 41.4

Total Value of Fixed Gross
Investment 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0


"Source: United Nations, Department of Iconomic and Social
Affairs, E.onomic Commission for Latin America, Analyses and Prolec-
tions of Economic Development, I1i, The Economic Development of
Colombia (EICN 12/3o5/Rev. 1, November, 195o) (Geneva, 1957), p. 21.


by 75.7 per cent and that in the field of transportation by 96.5

per cent. Similarly, during the same period construction investment

in urban dwellings rose by 310.5 per cent, investment in factory and

workshop building by 376.5 per cent while investment in rural, or

agricultural, building remained negligible.3


United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs,
Economic Comoission for Latin America, Analyses and Prolecrions of
Economic Development, III, The Economic Development of Colombia
(E/CN.12/365/Rev. 1, November, 195o) (Geneva, 1957), p. 21.
























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These same growth patterns continued throughout the nineteen-

fifties. Most of the investment in machinery and equipment and in

building has come to be in the areas of industry, commerce, trams-

portalton, or in public utilities. Government policies pursued

throughout this period have tended to accentuate and foster this

trend. Several of these policies will be discussed at a later point

in this chapter.


2-3 Structural Chaage: The Pattern of Employient and the Foreign
Trade Sector

During the same period, beginning in the years after World

Var I and continuing until the present time, the pattern of employment

reflected a similar decreasing emphasis on agricultural output and

production for export in favor of employment in industry, construction,

and the services. As shown in Table 2-7, the percentage of population

engaged in the traditional agricultural sector has considerably de-

creased, while the reverse is most notably apparent in manufacturing

and artisan industry. These same trends continued from 1950 to 1960

kith the share of active population employed in industry reaching

15.8 per cent by 1960 (see Table 2-8), an all-time high.

Yet another strain which shaped the performance of the economy

during the decade of the fifties uas the relationship between the

value of Colombian exports of Loods and services and the Cross National

Product. As can be seen in Table 2-9, such a relationship expressed

as a ratio of the former to the latter shows no marked change of a














TABLE 2-7

PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION OF ACTIVE POPULATION. BY ECONOMIC
ACTIVITIES, 1925, 1945, 1953d
(in per cent)


Year 1925 1945 1953


Agriculture 68.5 59.9 53.8
Mining 1.6 2.1 2.0
(a) Mining Proper 0.4 0.5 0.5
(b) Artisan Mining 1.2 1.6 1.5
Manufacturing 3.4 5.2 6.4
Artisan Industry 7.9 7.3 8.5
Construction 1.8 2.7 3.6
Transport, Communications,
Energy 2.5 3.2
Trade and Finance 16.8 5.8 6.4
Government 2.4 3.7
Services 12.1 12.4
Total Active Population 100.0 100.0 100.0


aSource: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social
Affairs, Economic Commission for Latin America, Analyses and Pro-
lectlons of Economic Development, III, The Economic Development of
Colombia (E/CN.12/365/Rev. 1, November, 195b) (Geneva, 1957), p. 17.


permanent nature if exports are valued in current pesos. The con-

stancy of this ratio is largely due to the special treatment of

coffee-export incomes which the Colombian government instituted

in 1954. This policy will be discussed at a later point in this

chapter.

Of more importance, however, is the ratio of exports to Gross

National Product when the former are valued in terms of United States



























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dollars and the latter to terms of constant pesos. This ratio more

realistically reflects the trend of the capacity of the Colombian

economy to import from abroad. Table 2-9 clearly indicates the rising

capacity to import prior to mid-1954 and the drastic decline following

the break in the New York price for coffee. The decline in this

ratio indicates a long-run trend operating since 1955 to reduce the

relative contribution of export income to Gross National Product.

Related to this declining ratio has been the failure of the

Colombian economy to diversify its export sector. Much official and

private concern has been expressed in Colombia indicating recognition

of this problem. But no structural reform of the export sector,

tending to reduce its dependence upon coffee sales abroad, was forth-

coming. Coffee exports, valued in terms of current United States

dollars, varied between 83 per cent and 71 per cent of the value of

all exports between 1950 and 1960.4

A recent study surveyed and ranked 76 countries according to

the dependence which each country placed on its three exports of

highest value (in 1957). In this survey Colombia ranked second (below

Venezuela), with coffee responsible for 77 per cent, petroleum 13

per cent and bananas 5 per cent of all exports. The three commodities

together accounted for 95 per cent of all Colombian exports in 1957.5


Departamento Adminiatrativo Naclonel de Estadfstica, Anusrio
de Comarcio Exterior (Annual editions, 195), 1960) (Bogota' Multilith
EBtadinal, 1960, 1961).

5Joseph D. Cappock, International Economic Instability (law York:
HcGrau-Hill, 1962), pp. 38-102.















percentage contribution of each commodity to total export value was:

70.9 per cent, 14.2 per cent, and 6.1 per cent.6

In summary, the basic sources of national income were gradually

being "disassociated from the external sector, which Little by little

lost some of its importance as a motive force in Colombia's economy."

When exports accounted for more than 30 per cent of the gross product

in Colombia (1937) the most important expansionist factor in the

internal economy was the external sector. But the relative importance

of exports has greatly diminished since the inter-war period, due to

the greater relative grouch of production for domestic consumption.8

The growth of production for home consumption was accomplished

by progressing industrialization, a second outstanding feature of the

Colombian economy. In addition to legislation for tariff protection,

special foreign exchange regulations, and general encouragement by

government, industry largely escaped the impact of the social and

political unrest that adversely affected agricultural production and

other rural economic activities. On the contrary, migration from rural


6United Nations, Analyses and Protections.... p. 32.

fEconomic Commission for Latin America, "Colombia's Economic
Policy In a Year of Balance of Payments Disequilibrium," Economic
Bulletin for Latin America, I (January, 1956), 54.

8Ibid., 57.











to urban areas gave industry the two-fold impetus of a larger avail-

able labor force and a rising demand for manufactured goods.9

However, the failure of the economy to diversify its export

sector was to have notable effects on the growth rate and continuing

industrialization of the internal sector. These effects, propitiated

by the progressive decline in the New York coffee price beginning in

the latter half of 1954, began to expert appreciable deflationary

tendencies in the internal sector by 1956.

The accelerated growth prior to 1956 was accompanied (until

mid-1954) by a rising purchasing power of exports as a consequence of

a favorable trend in the terms of trade.10 This trend permitted the

rapid and persistent expansion of imports of capital goods required

to sustain an investment coefficient between 20 and 25 per cent of

available goods and services during the period 1945-54.11 But with

the reversal of the trend in the terms of trade, resulting from the

combination of a declining price for coffee in the United States market

and Colombia's excessive reliance upon this commodity for export

earnings, the capacity to import drastically declined from the level

attained in 1954.


United Nations, Economic Commission for Latin America,
Economic Survey of Latin America: 1954 (Z/CN.12/3b2/Rev. 1, July,
1955) (New York, 1955), p. 154.

Economic Commission for Latin America, "Colombia's economic
Policy...," 5o.

11United Nations, Economic Commission for Latin America,
Economic Survey of Latin America: 1955 (E/CN.12/421/aev. 1, may,
1956) (New York, 1956), p. 15.










The declining capacity to import after 1954 contrasted with

a general fiscal and monetary policy directed at maintaining domestic

aggregate demand. The latter had the natural effect of maintaining

and even stimulating pressures in favor of imported consumption and

investment goods. The Intractability of imports in the face of the

declining capacity to import was largely responsible for the balance

of payments crisis which plagued Colombia in 1955 and 1956.


2-4 Economic Policies to Hid-1954

In the remainder of this chapter we shall examine some of the

most significant monetary and fiscal policies operative in Colombia

between 1950 and 1960 which contributed to the growth of income and

to the pattern of structural change. We shall center our attention

on the effects which these policies had on the main sectors of the

economy -- consumption and investment expenditures and the foreign

balance of trade.

To some extent the policies by which monetary and fiscal

authorities influenced aggregate expenditures between 1950 and 1960

were inconsistent and contradictory. This was especially true during

1953 and 1954, the great boom years for coffee exports, when Colombian

coffee generated unprecedented export earnings.

On the one hand there was a partial anti-inflationary policy

instituted by the Banco de la Republica. This took the form of in-

creasing required cash reserves during the period 1952-1954, shortening

the term for rediscounts, and implementing general credit restrictions.12


12United Nations, Economic Survey of Latin jAmeric: 19,4, p. 154.











These restrictive measures were supplemented by a moderately

compensatory policy vis-a-vis incomes earned from the export of coffee.

It had been official policy since the devaluation of 1951 to require

the surrender of foreign exchange earned through coffee exports

(I.e., United States dollars) to the Colombian exchange authorities.

This foreign exchange was then converted into pesos at an effective

rate lower than any of the other three principal buying rates,13 re-

sulting in a discriminatory (and compensatory) effective exchange

rate.14

During the first half of 1954, when coffee incomes rose to

their highest level, the government imposed further measures on this

form of income designed to absorb some of the rising inflationary

potential. These measures were two-fold. First the official surrender

price for coffee exports was increased four times between January and

July, 1954 (from US $8b.50 per 70 kilogram bag to a high of US $128


13International Monetary Fund, Third Annual and Fourth Annual
Report: Exchange Restrictions (Washington: International Monetary
Fund, 1952, 1953).
14
1The original provision, promulgated on March 20, 1951,
following the official devaluation of the peso from PS. 51.95 = US $1
to PS. $2.50, allowed 25 per cent of the exchange proceeds from coffee
exports to be converted at PS $2.50 and the balance of these earnings
at PS. $1.95. On October 29 of the same year this regulation was al-
tered so as to permit 40 per cent of coffee earnings to be converted
at PS. 52.50 and provision was made for this percentage to be increased
progressively by 1 per cent each month until the PS. $2.50 rate be-
came applicable to the total proceeds (International Monetary Fund,
Third Annual Report..., p. 71). See below, Table 2-11, Column (5)
for the effective coffee exchange rate in pesos per dollar prevailing
from 1952 to 1958.











per bag). Against the dollar surrender value the discriminatory

coffee exchange rate was applied.

Second, on March 31 of 1954 a coffee export tax of 50 per cent

was established on the difference between the official surrender

price per bag and a base price equivalent to US $105 per bag (later

raised to US $115). However, it could be argued that the special

tax was imposed too late because the peak dollar price for coffee had

already been reached during the month of March.

These policies -- freezing the coffee exchange rate, mani-

pulating the surrender value, and varying the special tax -- all were

designed to dampen the full inflationary impact of the rapidly climbing

New York price for coffee. Yet the coffee policy was partially self-

defeating and not nearly as financially restrictive as it appeared.

Part of the proceeds of the 'coffee differential" and special

coffee tax accrued to the Fondo Nacional del Cafe (National Coffee

Fund). (The Fund received all of the proceeds from the special coffee

tax in 1954.) The Fund was required, in turn, to deposit 85 per cent

of its receipts in the Banco Cafecero. These parts of coffee income

were, therefore, not by any means frozen; they helped to finance rural

investment as well as the accumulation of coffee inventories in the

crop year 1954/55. 5


L5United Nacions, Economic Commission for Latin America,
Economic Survey of Latin America; 1)57 (E/CN.12/489/Rev. 1, 1959)
(New York, 1959), p. 15).











Also during this period of time a fiscal policy of budgetary

deficit was partially negating the restrictive policies. In both 1953

and 1954 the national government ran a budgetary deficit, with that

of 1954 exceeding by more than three times the deficit of the pre-

ceding year.16 These deficits were financed by the Banco de la

Rep6blica, thus contributing to the increase of money in circulation.

In fact, there was a persistent and rapid expansion of the money

supply during every year of this period, except 1951.17 The expanding

money supply, of course, had the natural effect of stimulating in-

ternal purchasing power and aggregate demand.

In addition to the inconsistent nature of these monetary and

fiscal policies relative to total demand, these policies also had an

effect on the distribution of aggregate demand between consumption

and investment. The special treatment of coffee income tended to re-

duce consumption demand (by the coffee growers and exporters) and to

stimulate investment demand through the activities of the Banco Cafetero.

Similarly, the budget deficits incurred during this period did not

serve to increase "government consumption," but rather provided a

means of financing government and qu.asi-public investment programs.

The result of the changed structure of aggregate demand is reflected

in Table 2-10. As a share of Gross National Product at market prices,


lbThe Colombian national government incurred a deficit of 30
million pesos in 1353 and 109 million in 1954. The latter deficit
was approximately 10 per cent of all national government expenditure
Csee, International Monetary Fund, International Financial Statistics,
(1953-1955)].

17See Chapter III.


































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private consumption reached its lowest Level -- 70.8 per cent -- in

1954, while investment expenditures were notably rising.


2-5 Economic Policies after Mid-1954

The coffee boom, however, began to subside by late Spring of

1956, and the level of coffee export earnings (in dollar terms) de-

clined. As a result, during the second half of 1954 the Colombian

government began to initiate a series of fiscal and monetary policies

designed to maintain the internal purchasing power of the coffee sector

and to neutralize, by means of credit and public expenditures, the

deflationary effects of declining export earnings.8

Two particular policies were appropriately reversed after the

decline in coffee earnings began in 1954. These policies were the

countercyclical management of coffee incomes and the import restrictions

placed on consumption Imports.

The total value of current imports had begun to rise precipi-

tously by 1953 in response to rising export earnings. By February,

1954 the government eliminated the prohibited list of imports. A large

percentage of the increased imports during the 1953-54 period were

durable and semi-durable consumption goods, a fact that dome Colombian

economists felt was an undesirable use of foreign exchange.9 However,


18Economic Commission for Latin America, "Colombia's Economic
Policy...," 58.

19cf. Dulcy Carces Molina, Memor(a. Primer Congreso tacional
de Economistas, Document No. 20: Proceso Historico del Problems
Cambi'rio en Colombia (Bogota: Sociedad Colombiana de Economistas,
1958), pp. 5-6.




3 1 ... ...... ..


the apparent official intention was to absorb part of the rising coffee

incomes, so as to reduce internal inflationary pressures.

As the coffee market changed in the course of 1954 the volume

of imports grew menacing, and it became official policy to inhibit

them. The new restrictions initiated in late 1954 were measures

adopted primarily to reduce imports of luxury and other consumption

imports. Investment imports were largely uneffected.

Thus, the effect of the new exchange regulations was to divert

an increasing share of total consumption demand into the domestic

market. The diversion of this consumption demand naturally served

to stimulate domestic demand for investment goods. This fact, plus

the special treatment allowed investment goods imports in the foreign

exchange market, tended to maintain the higher relative importance

of investment as a percentage of Gross National Product.

Countercyclical management of coffee income required a reversal

of the existing policy after mid-1954. Initial government action took

the form of reducing the coffee surrender price and temporarily eli-

minating the special 50 per cent export tax on coffee. This took place

in mid-October, 1954.20 More direct action followed in February, 1955,

when the "coffee differential" was entirely eliminated. This meant

that the PS $2.50 rate of exchange thereafter applied to all coffee

exports.

20
20International Monetary Fund, Sixth Annual Report: Exchange
Restrictions (Washington: International Monetary Fund, 1955), p. 98.


il';"lliiiiillalllll











(The 1955 exchange regulations also created a broad free ex-

change market where foreign exchange earnings on most exports -- not

Including coffee -- could be converted at a rate higher than that pre-

vailing in the official market. The creation of this new rate -- the

"fluctuating free market rate" -- was virtually equivalent to a de-

valuation. By December 31, 1955 the official buying rate for dollars,

which applied to exports of coffee, petroleum and a few other goods,

was still PS $2.50, while the fluctuating free race had depreciated

to PS $4.15.)21

The actual level of income generated in the coffee sector,

which is one of the most important sectors in the Colombian economy,

is significantly dependent upon the effective coffee exchange rate,

as well as world market coffee prices and the volume of exports.

Table 2-11 illustrates the determination of this income.

As a result of the elimination of the "coffee differential"

in 1955, the average effective coffee exchange rate for the year was

higher than in 1954. This increase in the effective exchange rate

largely balanced the effect of the decline in dollar export values,

and the peso value of legal exports of coffee showed only a small de-

cline in 1955.


21International Monetary Fund, Seventh Annual Report: Exchange
Restrictions (Washington: International Monetary Fund, 1956), p. 83.














TABLE 2-11

FACTORS INFLUENCING THE PESO VALUE OF COFFEE EXPORTS
AND THE INTERNAL INCOME OF THE COFFEE SECTOR,
1952-1958a



Dollar
New York Export Effective
Market Price Volume Hypothet- Exchange
Price (F.O.B., Exported ical Export Rate
(Manizales, Dollars (Millions Value (Pesos
cents per per 70 kg. oE 70 kg. (Millions per
Year pound Bag) Bags) of Dollars) Dollars)
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)


1952 57 83 4.3 360 2.24
1953 60 89 5.7 504 2.34
1954 80 120 4.9 590 2.27
1955 64 96 5.0 484 2.45
1956 74 109 4.3 475 2.84
1957 64 93 4.1 385 3.61
1958 53 76 4.71 356 4.87


aColumns (1), (2), (5) and (r) are annual averages. Sources:
United Nations, Economic Commission for Latim America, Economic Survey
of Latin America: 1957 (E/CN.12/489/Rev. 1, 1959) (New York, 1959)
p. 155; and, Economic Survey of Latin America: 1958 (E/CN.12/489/
Rev. 1, 1959) (Mexico, 1959), p. 121.


bn.a. = not available.













TABLE 2-11 -- Extension


Estimated Rough
Export Estimated Allowance
Price Export for Investment Total
(F.O.B., Value in Inventories Income of
Pesos per (Millions and Contraband Coffee Sector
70 kg. Bag) of Pesos) (Millions of (Millions of
((2) x (5)) ((3) x (t)) Pesos) Pesos)
(6) (7) (8) (9)


186 800 +150 950
207 1175 -150 1025
273 1350 +150 1500
234 1175 -50 1125
319 1350 +250 lbO0
337 1400 +550 1950
371 1717 n.a.b n.a.b

















rate, applicable to legal exports of coffee, remained pegged at PS

$2.50, it became increasingly profitable to avoid the surrender of
22
United States dollars at the official rate.

The Colombian government continued to maintain the purchasing

power of the coffee sector of the economy throughout the balance of

the decade. This is clearly reflected in the rising effective ex-

change rates applicable to coffee export income. The continuous rise

in this rate was effected not only through adjustment in the official

exchange rate itself, but also by the permanent elimination of the

special coffee tax and by adjusting the coffee surrender price to the

fluctuations in world coffee prices.

In response to a temporary strengthening of the world coffee

market in 1956 the surrender price was slightly raised from the low

level it had reached during 1955. However, a small percentage of the

surrender value was now allowed to be converted into pesos at a rate

higher than the official rate of PS $2.50.23 Therefore, the restrictive

effects of the increased surrender price were negated and the effective

exchange rate for coffee exports continued to rise.

22
United Nations, Economic Survey of Latin America: 1957, p.
15b.

23International Monetary Fund, Eighth Annual Report: Exchange
Restrictions (Washington: International Monetary Fund, 1957), p. 88.











During the following years, world coffee prices continued to

weaken, the coffee surrender price was regularly lowered: once in

1957, four times in 1958, and once in 1959.

The Federacibn Nactonal de Cafeteros (National Federation of

Coffee Producers), a semi-official organization, lent further support

towards maintaining coffee incomes. The Federation initially began

to support internal coffee prices in the latter part of 1954 by buying

from domestic coffee producers at quotations based on the previous

high export prices.

The Federation made heavier purchases in the domestic market

during the first half of 1955, when there was a strong contraction of

coffee exports, drawing upon the Fondo Nacional del Cafe, which it

administers, and on credit from the Banco de la RepUblica. During

the latter half of 1955, however, a considerable proportion of the

legal coffee exports came out of the Federation's inventories, so that

the peso incomes actually reaching the coffee growers and producers
24
was not notably higher in 1955 than in 1952 or 1953.

The Federation continued to support the coffee market and to

maintain the internal purchasing power of the coffee sector in 1957.

Continuous support of the coffee market by inventory purchases became

impractical, however, by 1958. During that year a new coffee policy

was adopted under which exporters of coffee were required to deliver

to the National Federation of Coffee Growers, without compensation,

24
United Nations, Economic Survey of Latin America: 1957,
p. 156.










a quantity of coffee equivalent to 15 per cent of excelso coffee in-

tended for export.25

This new policy was not apparently designed to reduce the

purchasing power of the domestic coffee sector because, at the same

time that the new tax in kind was instituted, the minimum surrender

price for coffee exports was also reduced. Furthermore, the minimum

surrender price was subsequently reduced three more times during the

same year.

When New York coffee prices began to recede in mid-1954 and

dollar export earnings began to decline, the Colombian government, as

we have seen, initiated a series of counter-deflationary policies de-

signed to maintain domestic income at a high level. In some cases,

however, the inflationary policies appropriate after mid-1354 were

already in existence prior to the middle of that year (at which time

they were contrary to deflationary needs of the time).

Monetary expansion had been very rapid prior to mid-1954.

It continued through the balance of the year, through 1955, and through-

out the remainder of the decade without interruption. However, the

rate of growth of the money supply in the post-1954 period never again

attained the rate of expansion achieved from 1951 to 1954. Further

discussion of the money supply and monetary policy will be postponed

until the following chapter.


2International Monetary Fund, Tenth Annual Report: Exchanae
Restrictions (Washington: International Monetary Fund, 1959), p. 92.











Fiscal policy had also been expansionary prior to mid-1954

and budget deficits had occurred in both 1953 and 1954. This policy

uas continued and intensified in the two years after 1954. In fact,

the size of the budget deficit increased with each year from 1953

to 1956.

The budget deficits of these four years are significant, how-

ever, for reasons aside from their absolute size. in addition to any

official considerations stemming from the desire to maintain private

domestic purchasing power, these deficits should be viewed in tbe con-

text of a general and longstanding policy of industrialization. The

expenditure pattern which underlay the budgetary deficits during these

years dictates this conclusion.

From 1953 to 1960 government expenditures were increasingly

dominated by investment in fixed capital goods and public works. This

is reflected in the allocation of total expenditures by government

ministries. During the years of deficit, 1953 to 1956, the entire in-

crease in total expenditures by the national government was absorbed

by two ministries -- the Ministry of Development and the Ministry of
26
Public Works. (Expenditures by the latter ministry rose by three

hundred per cent from 1952 to 1956, at which time they accounted for

approximately one-third of all government expenditures.) Even though

the national budget again showed a surplus in 1957, 1958 and 1959, the

Ministries of Development and of Public Works continued to absord a


26Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadfstica, Anuario
General de latadlatica, Colombia, (Annual editions, 1952 to 1960)
(Bogotal Multilith Estadinal, 1954-1962).










higher percentage of total expenditures than in the years prior to

1953. Investment expenditures remained high through the balance of

the decade.

The emphasis on direct public investment by the national

government was parallelled by its' encouragement of private investment.

This policy, as has already been noted, was implemented primarily

through special treatment of capital and investment goods imports in

the foreign exchange market.

We have seen that restrictions on the free importation of luxury

and consumption goods were implemented shortly after the reversal of

the coffee export market in mid-1954. As a result, the composition

of Colombia's imports began to radically shift in favor of investment

and capital goods, especially in 1955 and 195b.

These variations in the structure of imports, together with

other measures to stimulate private investment, the generally ex-

pansionist monetary and fiscal policies described above, and the growing

volume of direct government investment, contributed greatly to the

maintenance of the high volume of investment characteristic of the

years 1953 to 1956. The relative success of these measures is re-

flected in the sharp increase in gross capital formation as a per-

centage of Cross National Product between 1953 and 1956 (see Table

2-10).


2-6 Economic Policies and the Balance of Payments

However, a further consequence of these policies was less en-

couraging. The high rate of public expenditures and investment,











compensatory treatment of coffee incomes, special exchange provisions

for capital goods imports, and inflationary monetary and fiscal poli-

cies In general had, since 1954, tended to counteract the deflationary

Influence of external conditions. As a result there was continued

pressure on the demand for imports long after the decline in Colombia's

capacity to import

As a result, 1953 to 1956 were years of deficit in the balance

of payments, as well as of deficit in the national budget. We have

seen that a generally lenient policy towards all imports prevailed Ln

1953 and the first half of 1954, designed to reduce domestic inflationary

pressures. The large deficits which occurred after mid-1954 to 1956

were "essentially due to the fact that imports did not decline for

over two years after the coffee boom began to subside in 1954. 27

In Colombia movements of gold and foreign exchange reserves

have been the traditional method of covering such negative balances.

However, by 1956 these reserves, largely utilized to cover the deficit

in 1)55, fell too low to continue financing the deficit. As an alter-

native, trade debts were accumulated. By the end of 1956 trade arrears

totaled over US $200 million, representing US $60 million more than

the country's aggregate gold and foreign exchange holdings.28


27United Nations, Economic Survey of Latin America: 1957,
p. 151.

28United Nations, Economic Comnission for Latin America,
Economic Survey of Latin America: 1956 (E/CN.12/427/Rev. 1, 1957)
(Neu York, 1957), pp. 42-44.










For these reasons, plus Colombia's faltering credit abroad

and the deprecLating value of its peso in the international money

market, the government instituted a severe austerity program by the

end of 195b. Consequently the value of investment purchases from

abroad began to decline in the second half of 1957, the rate of

capital formation in the economy slackened, and the rate of real

growth began to decline.


2-7 Conclusion

In this chapter we have attempted to demonstrate and examine

the fact of continuing structural change and industrialization in

Colombia during the decade of the 1950's. For that reason, it was

necessary to explore some of the most important economic policies

which affected the demand for consumption goods and the demand for

investment goods. The analysis of these two types of demand dill

form the basis of our discussion of the Investment-demand and savings

supply schedules in Chapter VI.

The growth of income, both real and monetary, was necessarily

affected and, to some degree, shaped by the degree of monetary expansion

and the monetary and credit policies which prevailed in Colombia during

the decade under study. The following two chapters will attempt to

describe and analyze this expansion and some of the most important

financial policies of the period.














CHAPTER III


THE SUPPLY Or MONEY


3-1 Types of Banking Institutions and Bank Deposits

Several types of "banking institutions," in the broadest

sense, existed in Colombia during the decade of the fifties. These

institutions may be grouped into four general categories: Colombia's

central bank, the Banco de la Republica; the commercial banks, both

national and foreign; the savings banks, strictly limited in their

operations to the accumulation and subsequent investment of private

savings accounts; and, the various specialized credit institutions,

usually publicly-owned and semi-autonomous entities formed to meet

the credit needs of those economic sectors not adequately served

by the commercial banking system (e.g., agriculture, livestock,

coffee).

The Banco de la Republica, organized under Law 25 of 1923,

was granted a legal monopoly on banknote issuance. The hand-to-hand

money in circulation is composed almost exclusively of these banknotes.

The remainder of the money in circulation is composed of small amounts

of treasury money -- national banknotes, silver certificates, silver

coins, and copper-nickel coins.


Lbey 25 de 1923, in: Carlos Julio Angel (ed.), Legislacfon
Bancaria Colombiana (Bagoti: Editorial Hinerva, 1959), p. 12.










The total stock of money in circulation is the sum of all

hand-to-hand money in circulation plus one or more of the various

types of bank deposits which exist in Colombia. These types of

deposits were originally defined In Law 45 of 1923, the companion-

piece to the central bank legislation.

All types of bank deposits were divided, by Law 45, into

three categories; term (dep6sitos a tirmino), demand (depositos

exigibles), and, savings deposits (depositos de ahorros). The first

type of account was defined as a deposit withdrawable only after 31

days and upon which interest is paid to the depositor.

The second type, demand deposits, may be withdrawn within 30
2
days of deposit and is non-interest-bearing. However, of great legal

and economic importance is the subdivision of "demand deposits' in

general into two categories. The most important of these is the sight

(a la vista) or current account (cuenta corriente) deposit, which is

virtually equivalent to what is commonly known as a checking deposit.

The other type of demand deposit is the order (a la orden) deposit,

which is not withdrawable by check but is freely available to the

depositor at any time.

In some respects, savings deposits, the third type of deposit,

are very similar to term deposits insofar as they are interest-

bearing and, at the discretion of the Directors of the central bank,

may not be withdrawn without prior notice. In fact, however, these.

sumilarlties can be misleading because savings deposits are legally

distinct from all other types of bank deposits in several important aspects.


2Ley 45 de 1923, in: Angel, p. 23.


iiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii~iiiiiiiiii











Originally, only chartered savings banks were able to maintain

savings deposits. Prior to 1949 the Caja Colombiana de Ahorros, a

government-owned autonomous institution, bad a near monopoly on savings

deposits. In 1950, however, commercial banks were permitted to open

and expand special savings departments. The growth of savings accounts

maintained in commercial banks during the 1950's was very rapid.

Whether deposited in the savings banks or in the special savings

sections of the commercial banks, all funds accumulated in the form

of savings accounts were required by law to be invested in certain

specified documents. This mandatory investment has been almost en-

tirely in governmental debt and in mortgage bonds, particularly in

those of the government-owned Banco Central Hipotecario.


3-2 Alternative Money Supply Concepts

The multiplicity of the types of bank deposits in Colombia

poses the very interesting question of which type or types of deposits

to Include, with the amount of hand-to-hand currency in circulation,

in the computation of the stock of money.

The possibility exists that one or more of the relatively

"inactive" types of bank deposits may displace the holding of checking

deposits to satisfy the store-of-value function of money. The newly-

created "inactive" deposits do not purchase any goods or services,

but in satisfying the store-of-value function they do serve to diminish

the demand for money used in exchange and, therefore, to increase the










velocity of circulation. "The liquidity preference demand for money

that Keynes developed implies the existence of money assets that are

not necessarily exchange media."3

In terms of the types of bank deposits which exist in Colombia,

the problem is whether or not to include checking deposits only;

checking plus order deposits; checking, order, term, and savings

deposits. Table 3-1 summarizes the various possibilities in terms

of four hypothetical stocks of money. Several relevant observations

may be made on the data presented in this table. First is the obvious

quantitative importance of money and bills outside banks plus checking

deposits. That is to say, order, term, and savings deposits are all

quite small relative to amounts of money, bills, and checking deposits

outstanding.

Possibly of more significance, however, are the growth rates

demonstrated by each hypothetical money stock. Table 3-1 indicates

that the rates of growth of each money stock concept were greater

the more inclusive the concept of the money stock. The rates of

growth for all concepts were, however, remarkably similar. Undoubtedly,

a great deal of this similarity may be accounted for by the quanti-

tative dominance of one money stock: money, bills, and checking


3Richard H. Timberlake, Jr. "The Stock of Money and Money Sub-
stitutes," The Southern Economic Journal, XXX (January, 1964), 253.
Some preliminary research was done by the author to examine the pos-
sible inclusion of non-monetary financial assets (e.g., policy re-
serves of life insurance companies, government securities held by non-
bank investors, etc.) in the stock of money. Unfortunately, it was
discovered that data concerning these types of assets are either
completely lacking or insufficient for the formation of any conclusions.














TABLE

FOUR ALTERNATIVE STOCKS


Year


Money and Bills Outside Banks Plus
Checking Deposits of Public in all
Banks in Millions of Pesosb
(1)

Column (1) 1950 100
(2)

Column (1) plus Order Deposits in
all Banks in Millions of Pesosc
(3)

Column (3) 1950 100
(4)

Column (3) Plus Term Deposits in
all Banks in Millions of Pesos?
(5)

Column (5) 1950 100
(6)

Column (5) Plus Savings Deposits in
all Banks in Millions of Pesosc
(7)

Column (7) 1950 = 100
(8)


3-1

OF MONEY, 1950-19608


1950 1951 1952 1953


970.7


100.0



1074.2


100.0



1118.5


100.0



1222.2


100.0


959.1


98.8



1129.7


105.2



1183.8


105.8



1303.0


106.6


1185.5


122.1



1312.8


122.2



1378.4


123.2



1535.6


125.6


1363.9


140.5



1492.8


139.0



1583.3


141.6



1772.3


145.0


aSource: Revista del Banco de la Repablica (1950-1961).

bDoes not include Official Deposits in the Banco de la
Republica or the check float. Annual averages of 12 months.

cOrder, Term, and Savings Deposits are annual averages based
on January, April, July, and October, equally weighted.














TABLE 3-1 -- Etxenlson


1954 1955 1)56 1957 1958 1959 1960



1664.4 1808.5 2131.7 2594.1 3024.5 3536.3 3786.1


171.5 186.3 219.6 267.2 3L1.6 364.3 390.0



1824.3 2051.2 2630.5 3039.4 3358.4 3884.5 4267.2


lb9.8 191.0 244.9 288.5 312.6 361.o 397.2



1948.2 2198.4 2832.1 3292.3 3512.2 4016.0 4480.3


174.2 196.5 253.2 294.3 314.0 359.1 400.6



2181.7 2487.2 3170.8 3692.2 3985.9 4564.9 5094.8


178.5 203.5 259.4 302.1 326.1 373.5 416.9











deposits. This helps to account for the fact that while the rates of

growth of each money stock concept were very similar, the rates of

growth of each type of deposit were not equally similar.

The growth of order deposits between 1950 and 1960 was highly

uneven, being positive in live years, negative in two years, and

without change in three years. Term deposits grew at a more even

rate, at least until 1956. From that year until 1959 these deposits

actually declined, but began to increase again in 1960. The most

constant, and also the most rapid, rate of growth of all types of

deposits was that of savings deposits. Undoubtedly, this was caused

by the expansion of bank facilities legally permitted to accept this

form of deposit. The rate of growth of checking deposits was, after

1951, almost parallel to the growth of savings accounts. The net in-

creases in the amounts maintained in each type of deposit between 1950

and 1960 were as follows: for checking accounts, 384 per cent, order

deposits, 365 per cent; term deposits, 381 per cent; and, for savings

deposits 493 per cent.

Clearly, the overall growth rates of each type of deposit

were far more similar than were the year-to-year changes in these

accounts.


3-3 The Honey Supply

On balance, it appears that very little would be lost or gained

by the inclusion of order, term, or savings deposits in the stock of

money. Therefore, we shall restrict oir attention in the remainder











of this study to the orthodox definition of the stock of money: money

and bills outside banks plus the total checking deposits of the public

in all banks.

Table 3-2 illustrates in a more detailed manner the grouch

of the stock of money between 1950 and 1360. This table, computed on

the basis of the stock of money at the end of each year, shows that

the rate of increase of checking deposits exceeded the rate of growth

of currency expansion during the years 1950 to 1954, and that the

amount of money and bills in circulation actually declined during

1950, the only year in which either component of the money stock did

not increase.

During 1955 both currency and checking deposits grew at the

same rate, but in 1956 and 1957 the rate of increase of the former

exceeded that of the latter, the reverse of the situation between

1950 and 1954. The last three years of the period under study saw

both currency and checking deposits expanding at approximately the

same rate. The increase in each component of the money supply from

the beginning of 1950 to the end of 1960 -- 478 per cent for checking

deposits and 230 per cent for money and bills outside banks -- re-

flects the greater number of years in which checking deposits increased

more rapidly than did currency in circulation.


3-4 The Determinants of the Honey Supply

A more interesting and meaningful discussion of the rapid

expansion of the money supply in Colombia may be achieved through an














TABLE 3-2

COMPOSITION OF THE MONEY STOCK AT END OF YEAR,
1949 19360
(in millions of pesos)


Bills
of the Total Vault
Banco de La Money Cash In Vault
Republican and Bills the Banco Cash
Treasury in in do la in other
Year Currency Circulation Circulation Republica Banks
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)


512.6
500.0
550.5
b39.0
719.5
813.8
835.4
1002.4
124b.4
1459.4
1604.8
1724.5


18.7
21.3
27.5
27.3
40.9
55.b
54.7
64.4
75.4
92.0
112.3
110.0


RepGblica and
public,
rectiva,


Segunda Parte (Bogota: Talleres Crificom, 1963), pp. 128-131.


1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960


30.3
36.8
28.0
29.3
31.4
33.7
35.7
38.1
43.6
54.2
64.2
63.0


476.3
463.2
522.5
009.7
688.1
780.1
799.7
964.3
1202.8
1405.2
1540.b
1661.5


'Excluding Official Deposits in the Banco do la
not adjusted for check float. Source: Banco de la Rep
XXXVIII Y XXXIX Informe Anual del Gereute a ls Junta Di













TABLE 3-2 -- Extension


Total Checking Total
Vault Money Deposits Checking Checking
Cash and Bills of Public Deposits Deposits
in all outside in the of Public of Public Money
Banks Banks Banco de la in Other in all Banks Supply
(3) + (5) (3) + (6) Republics Banks (8) + (9) (7) + (10)
(6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11)


25.9 486.7 3.8 428.0 431.8 918.5
28.3 471.6 6.3 498.6 504.9 976.5
35.5 515.0 1.1 606.7 607.8 1122.8
33.7 605.4 1.4 707.7 709.1 1314.5
47.2 672.3 20.0 856.4 876.4 1548.7
ol.2 752.6 1.5 1092.b 1094.1 1640.7
n0.4 775.0 3.0 1155.7 1158.7 1933.7
69.8 932.5 7.9 1474.9 1482.8 2415.3
80.3 116o.1 1.4 1577.0 1578.4 2744.5
98.9 1360.5 2.1 1955.5 1957.6 3318.1
119.3 1485.5 7.6 2222.1 2229.7 3715.2
118.6 1605.8 4.7 2492.1 24t).8 4102.o











examination of the relative quantitative importance of the most signi-

ficant determinants of the money supply. These determinants were (1)

the level of international reserves; (2) the amount of Treasury

currency in circulation; (3) the "net effect of the Banco de la

Republica," the Colombian central bank, and (4) the "net effect of

other banking institutions." 'Other banking institutions" include

all commercial banks, both foreign and national, the Banco Cafetero;

the Banco Canadero, the Caja de Credito Agrarlo, Industrfal Minera,

the Caja Colombiana de Ahorros prior to its absorption by the Caja

Agraria in November, 1955; the Banco Prendario Nacional prior to

December, 1957 at which time it was absorbed by the Banco Popular;

the Banco Popular, and the various small, privately-owned savings

banks.

In the case of the latter two categories -- 'net effect

of the Banco de la Repiblica" and "net effect of other banking in-

stitutions" -- "net effect" has been defined as the sum of credit plus

other assets minus non-monetary liabilities. Credit, other assets,

and non-monetary liabilities were determined by a compilation of the

relevant balance sheet items of the Banco de la RepUblica and of the

other banking institutions mentioned above.4


4See APPENDIX C. This method of arriving at the deter-
minants of the money supply closely parallels a similar analysis of
the Colombian money stock during 1960, 1961 and the first part of 1962,
in: Jorge Ruiz Lara and Martha Fernandez R., La Expansion Monetarlt
de 1960 a Marzo de 1962 ("Centro de Estudios Sobre Desarrollo Econ6mico,"
Monograffa No. 15; Bogota: Universidad de Los Andes, 19b2), pp. 1-5
and 34-37.











It can be seen that the supply of money In circulation can be

closely approximated, as in Table 3-3, by aggregating the four major

determinants of the money supply. Table 3-4 presents the same data

as that contained in Table 3-3, with the data converted into the

form of index numbers.

It will be useful to summarize the most significant character-

istics of these determinants of the Colombian money supply as an In-

troduction to the discussion in Chapter IV of money and credit policies

from 1950 to 1960.

Excluding Treasury currency, which was not influenced by

fluctuations in the level of international reserves or by the volume

of credit, the remaining three categories reflect the sources of

monetary expansion. Of these three groupings, one is related to the

external sector -- international reserves -- and two reflect the

internal sources of the growth of the money supply.

As indicated in Tables 3-3 and 3-4, there was no decrease in

the total money supply in 1950 corresponding to the decline in inter-

national reserves during that year. During the following four years

both the level of international reserves and the total money supply

grew rapidly. However, it is significant that the rate of increase

of the former exceeded that of the latter, an indication that the of-

ficial policy designed to dampen the inflationary effects of rising

coffee export prices met with some degree of success.

During 1955 the slight decline in the total supply of money

was largely due to the declining level of international reserves,














TABLE 3-3

THE DETERMINANTS OF THE HONEY SUPPLY
ON DECEMBER 31, 1949-1960O
(in millions of pesoa)


Year 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953


International
Reserves 233.0 206.2 257.1 326.0 395.0
Net Effect,
Banco de la
Republica 258.8 227.6 260.1 284.6 249.0
Credit 302.6 282.1 239.1 342.4 322.4
Other Assets 126.7 135.4 204.0 143.1 145.9
Non-Monetary
Liabilities 170.5 189.9 183.0 200.9 219.3
Net Effect,
Other Banking
Institutions 402.1 574.7 588.3 802.7 963.5
Credit 762.8 967.8 1124.4 1379.2 1622.0
Other Assets 156.1 226.6 239.7 263.2 290.0
Non-Monetary
Liabilities 516.8 619.7 775.8 839.7 948.5
Treasury
Currency 36.3 36.8 28.0 29.3 31.4
Total Money
Supply 930.2 1045.3 1133.5 1442.6 1638.9


"Source: APPENDIX C.














TABLE 3-3 -- Extension


1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960



525.7 297.5 360.3 389.4 425.8 5b0.9 423.6


345.2 316.4 382.1 395.4 709.7 735.3 855.9
506.4 571.5 761.9 1446.2 1794.2 1746.7 1736.5
158.3 157.5 202.5 386.4 516.1 785.6 896.9

319.5 412.6 582.3 1437.2 1600.6 1797.0 1777.5


1160.9 1386.9 3292.2 3432.3 3757.0 4282.7 5083.5
2155.7 2562.4 2372.7 2456.4 2690.7 3031.4 3606.0
528.4 600.2 987.5 1231.9 1122.5 1116.7 1241.1

1523.2 1775.7 2504.5 2592.8 2548.5 2853.8 3355.2

33.7 35.7 38.1 43.6 54.2 64.2 63.0

2065.5 2036.5 2555.7 2899.8 3220.7 3906.0 4311.9

















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although the net effect of the Banco de la Republica wasa oderately

deflationary in this year also.

That year, however, was the last in which the level of inter-

national reserves decisively affected the growth of the money supply.

From 1956 through 1960 the total supply of money was apparently only

slightly influenced by the level of international reserves: the latter

expanded more rapidly than the former in 1956, 1957 and 1953. In

1953 there was a sharp increase in the level of international reserves

but no noticeable change in the rate of growth of the total money

supply from the preceding three years. Total money supply continued

to grow at this same rate in 1960 although the level of international

reserves fell sharply.

Thus, particularly in the years since 1355, we are able to see

the monetary consequences of the government policies, discussed in

the previous chapter, which attempted to Isolate the Internal economy

from fluctuations occurring in the external sector.

The direction of change of the net effect of the Banco de la

Repablica closely parallels the direction of change in the level of

International reserves from the end of 1949 through 1959. Nineteen

fifty three was the only notable exception to this rule, when the

level of international reserves was rising rapidly while the net effect

of the Banco de la Republica was deflationary. This is illustrative

of a significant difference between these two influences over the

supply of money.











While it is true that the directions of change of the level

of international reserves and of the net effect of the Banco de la

Republican were generally the same until 19b0, the rate of growth of

the latter was considerably less than the rate of increase of the

former from the end of 1950 to the end of 1954. The slower growth

rate of the net effect of the Banco de la Republica was, apparently,

in response to the official policy aimed at reducing the inflationary

effects of the rising level of international reserves. This largely

explains why the rate of growth of the total money supply during these

years was less than the race of increase of international reserves.

(Unfortjnately, the countercyclical policy influencing the Banco de

la Republican did not extend to the other banking institutions. The

net effect of these institutions was strongly expansionary during

this period.)

During 1955 the rate of decrease in the net effect of the

Banco de la Republica was considerably less than that demonstrated by

the level of international reserves, a further countercyclical adjust-

'ent which helps to explain why total money supply contracted only

slightly while the level of international reserves declined drastically.

Between 1958 and 1960 the net effect of the Banco de la Rep6b-

lica and the level of international reserves tended to become increasingly

independent of each other. The former increased sharply in 1958 while

the rate of increase of the latter was very moderate. In 1959 these

trends were reversed. In 1960, for the first time since 1953, these











two monetary determinants moved in opposite directions: the level

of international reserves declined sharply while the eat effect of

the Banco de la Republica increased at a rate exceeding that of 1959.

In 1956 and 1957 the total supply of money and the net effect

of the Banco de la Republica increased at a very moderate rate. How-

ever, within the accounts of the Banco de la Rep6blica an important

new factor developed in 1957. During this year credit of the Banco

de la Republica rose by almost 100 per cent. However, the net

effect of the central bank increased by only 3.5 per cent. This was

due to the fact that non-monetary liabilities grew 147 per cent.

The growth of non-monetary liabilities during this year was

caused primarily by the increase in order deposits of juridical

entities and other official entities, and other official deposits,

which together rose from less than PS $21 million at the end of

195b to over PS $366 million at the end of 1957. The hugh increase

in these deposits was, in turn, apparently caused by the accumulation

in the central bank of large amounts of cash deposits which were re-

quired as a prerequisite for the registration of imports.5 (In 1957

these "prior cash deposits" were equal to 100 per cent of the peso

value of the imported good.)

As shown in Table 3-5, central bank loans and discounts to the

national goverrient and other official entities varied between zero


5The original purpose of the prior import deposit "has normally
been to discourage imports by increasing their cost as importers are
forced to obtain additional financing to make the deposits. But the
system also has the effect of temporarLly absorbing liquidity...."
[jugem A. Birnbaum and Kaeea A. Qureshi, "Advance Deposit Requlremnts
for Imports," Interg. tonal bIetAry Fuad Staff PaBer., VIII Novemberr,
1960), 116]





















a'
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and 22.b per cent of all Banco de La Rep6blica loans and discounts.

On the other hand, central bank investment in documents of public debt

absorbed between 38 per cent (in 1958) and 82 per cent (In 1953) of

all Banco de la Rep6blica credit. The years in which this type of

investment accounted for the greatest share of all central bank

credit, from 1953 to 1956, were also years of budgetary deficit. The

rate of increase In investment in public debt was very uneven from

1950 to 1960, but the years of greatest increase were the same years

in which this type of investment absorbed the greatest share of all

central bank credit.

There was no marked expansionary consequence in the net effect

of the Banco de la Republics during these years, however, with the

exception of 1954, because of the fact that loans and discounts of

the Banco de la Bepublica remained low. During 1957 these loans and

discounts began to expand rapidly, mainly to private borrowers. As

a consequence, Investment in public debt began to decline as a per-

centage of all Banco de la Repjblica credit. There was no quantitative

decline in this type of investment in 1957. As we have seen, the net

effect of the Banco de la Republica was not notably expansionary during

this year due to the sharp rise in non-monetary liabilities of the

central bank.

The rate of increase exhibited by the net effect of other banking

institutions between 1950 and 19t0 was almost constant, as was the rate

of growth of the total money supply. However, the former grew far more











rapidly than the latter, so that the net effect of other banking in-

stitutions came to progressively dominate, in a quantitative sense,

the total money supply.

During the entire decade there was little or no correspondence

between the net effect, credit, other assets or non-monetary liabilities

of other banking institutions and the level of international reserves.

The net effect of other banking institutions was entirely

responsible for the increase in the total supply of money in 1950,

during which time both international reserves and the net effect of

the Banco de la Republlca were contracting. An expansionary net effect

of other banking institutions also largely offset declining international

reserves in 1)55 and 1960.

Quanticatively, the amount of total loans extended by other

banking institutions was the greatest expansionary factor contributing

to the growth in the net effect of these institutions in 1950, 1955,

and 1960. Also during these same three years the percentage of all

central bank loans and discounts absorbed by other banking institutions

sharply increased. Table 3-5 indicates that these loans and discounts

rose from 71.1 per cent of all Banco de la Repcblica loans and discounts

in 1949 to 81.i per cent by the end of 1950, from 62.3 per cent in

December, 1954, to 79.8 per cent at the end of 1955, and from 41.2

per cent in 1959 to 47.9 per cent in 19o0.

The relationship between loans and credit extended by other

banking institutions and the loan and discount operations of the




63





central bank is a significant factor to be considered in the following

chapter.

This synopsis of the Colombian monetary expansion between 1950

and 1960 lays a suitable and necessary background for an examination

of some of the salient features of the banking system in Colombia

and for an analysis of the credit and monetary policies pursued during

the decade.














CHAPTER IV


THE BANKING SYSTEM AND MONETARY AND CREDIT POLICIES


4-1 The Structure of the Banking System

We have seen that the Colombian banking system is essentially

composed of four distinct types of institutions: the central bank,

the commercial bank, the savings banks, and the specialized credit

institutions. But perhaps the most striking feature of this system

during the decade of the fifties was the multiplicity of official

policies and legislative acts which regulated the financial institutions.

Moreover, these agencies, policies, and acts were often con-

tradictory and incompatible with each other. This phenomenon is, in

itself, not unusual and, for example, exists to some extent in the

United States: "Legislation at one time will reflect predominantly

a given point of view; at another, a quite different one. In the end,

institutions and legislative regulations have emerged which are funds-

mently [sic] inconsistent."' An understanding of the operation of

these inconsistent elements is basic to a grasp of the Colombian

monetary and credit experiences during the 1950's.


ILloyd W. Hints, Monetary Policy for a Competitive Society
(New York: McGraw-Hill, 1950), p. 183.











While the structure of the commercial banks is similar to

that of the United Kingdom or Canada, the organization of the central

bank and its relation to the commercial banks are modeled after the

Federal Reserve System in the United States.2 However, the growing

importance of the specialized, semi-autonomous credit institutions

appears to be essentially an indigeneous phenomenon.

In Colombia, the administration of public finances originates

In the decisions of the Minister of Finances. This office wields

final authority in the determination of the national budget, import

and export policies, the flow of bank credit, the selection of In-

vestments, the capital market, and the policies of the financial

institutions.

Subordinate to the Minister of Finance is the Banco de la

Republica, which administers his policy. This line of authority is

insured by the fact that the Minister of Finance is a member of the

Board of Directors of the central bank and possesses veto powers

over the acts of this board.


2International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, The
Basis of a Development Program for Colombia (Washington: International
Bank for Reconstruction and Development, 1950), p. 295. This publi-
cation is more popularly known as The Currie Report, after the head
of the T.B.R.D. Mission.

3It has been alledged, however, that in actual practice the
"Minister of Finance makes hia final decisions through a system of
provisional estimates designed to cleverly elude the multiple con-
tradictory forces of the soliciting bodies that surround him.' [Jorge
Child, Memorfs, Primer Congreqo Nacional de conomiatas: Organizac fon
de las Finanzas Publicos (Bogota: Sociedad Colombiana de Econoistae,
1958), p. 1 .]











The contradictory aspects of the Colombian banking system,

and the somewhat confused monetary and credit policies which resulted,

s.ay be viewed as the product of a hybrid banking philosophy which

has attempted to blend three or four basically incompatible elements.

These key elements are, in the order in which they will be

discussed: the gold exchange standard, an element of automaricity,

or automatic control over the supply of money, the structure of the

Board of Directors of the Banco de La Republica, exercising die-

cretionary powers over the money supply and credit policies; the

Banking Laws of 1923, reflecting the influence of the "real bills

doctrine" and an element of supposed, but not actual automaticity;

and the recent growth of specialized credit institutions, representing

the fullest expression of official, selective control.


4-2 The Gold Exchange Standard

For many years previous to the period under study and through-

out this period, the Colombian banking system has operated under the

gold exchange standard. Adoption of the gold exchange standard, in

the first instance, gives the central bank permission to hold foreign

exchange instead of gold aa legal reserves against its notes in

circulation.4 Thus, the Colombian central bank must maintain a minimum

of 25 per cent in gold holdings (including its gold contribution to


United Nations, International Currency Experience (United
Nations Series of League of Nations Publications,) United Nations,
1947, (first published in 1944: League of Nations, 1944. II. A. 4),
p. 20.











the International Monetary Fund) and deposits in foreign banks as a

reserve against Its banknotes in circulation.

Such a system of international exchange and reserves represents

an attempt to legislate an automatic control over the quantity of money

in circulation in the domestic economy. The intention is to establish

a direct relationship between circulating currency, the level of

central bank reserves, and the balance of payments. With this done,

discretionary influences over the supply of money are reduced to a

minimum, and all but eliminated if the monetary authorities apply the

so-called "rules of the game."

The data indicate that, from the end of 1949 to the end of

1954, the Banco de la Rep5blica maintained actual reserves considerably

above the required reserves of 25 per cent against its banknotes in

circulation. In fact, these reserves never fell below 37 per cent

during this period, and reached almost 57 per cent in 1954. Therefore,

the central bank was in a position to freely expand the amount of

circulating currency, if it so chose, between 1950 and 1954.

With the drastic decline in international reserves in 1955 the

reserve requirement began to be felt as a restrictive Eictor on currency

expansion. However, legislation was subsequently implemented to virtu-

ally eliminate the minimum legal reserve requirement as a restraining

factor on banknote expansion.

This legislation actually Included two separate acts. Initially,

toward the end of 1956, the legal reserves of gold end foreign exchange

were revalued from PS $1.95 to the U.S. dollar to PS $2.50, thus In-

flating the value of the reserve in teris of domestic peaos.











This action proved insufficient and, therefore, in 1957 special

legislation was again passed. The 1957 legislation permitted the

central bank to allow its legal reserve to decline below 25 per cent

of its banknotes in circulation, "if necessary." The legislation was

timely, for by May of 1958 the legal reserves of the Banco de la

RepGblica had fallen to 23.38 per cent of its bills in circulation.

Although rising somewhat in 1958 and 1959, the reserve ratio had

declined to 21.74 per cent by December, 1960.5

Thus, the raison d' atre of the gold exchange standard and

the principle of central bank fractional reserves composed of foreign

exchange was, to a large extent, subverted by the acts of 1956 and

1957. Clearly, these special emergency measures serve as strong

evidence that, by the decade of the fifties, Colombian monetary poli-

cies had incorporated the principle of discretionary control. These

policies were not to be deferred by the operation of those automatic

forces inherent in a gold or gold exchange standard. Yet an awareness

of this principle did not extend to the point of repealing the gold

exchange standard, nor, apparently, to the contradiction which it

posed to the principle of discretionary monetary policies.


4-3 Discretionary Powers and the Policies of the Central Bank

The Board of Directors, or Junta Directiva, of the Banco de

La Republica has full authority over the policies and operations of

the central bank. The Board consists of ten members: the Minister


5Revista del Banco de la Republica, (1957-1961).










of Finance who, as previously mentioned, has veto powers over the

actions taken by the Board, two directors appointed by the government;

four directors elected by the national and foreign banks as shareholders

of the central bank; one director named by the Agriculturaliats' Society

(Sociedades de Agricultores) and Livestock Associations (Asociaciones

de Ganaderos); one director named by the Chamber of Commerce; and the

director of the Federation of Coffee Growers.6

The Board of Directors, in its legal form and intent, is quite

similar to the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in

the United States. Indeed, the Banco de la Republica itself was estab-

lished as a direct result of the Kemmerer mission to Colombia in the

early 1920's, and the 'Kemmerer legislation" of 1923 was modeled after

the Federal Reserve System of the United States. Thus, as is true in

the United States, the governing board of the banking system represents

the principle of discretionary powers.

During the period from 1950 to 19bO the two most significant

discretionary powers wielded by the Board of Directors over the supply

of money in circulation, i.e., the quantity of money, banknotes, and

checking deposits, were its control over the discount policies and

techniques of the central bank and its authority to vary the required

cash reserves against specific types of bank deposits.


6The Board membership, as prescribed in Paree 2051 of 2051
of 1951, consisted of only nine members. [Julio Angel (ad.), Legis-
lacron Lancaria Colombiana (Bogota: Editorial Minerva, 1959), pp. 282-
283]. This was subsequently changed to ten when the shareholding
banks were allowed a fourth representative.











Discount policy may be defined as "the varying of the terms,

and of the conditions in the broadest sense, under which the marker

may have temporary access to central bank credit through discounts

of selected short-term assets or through secured advances.'7

The discount race itself has been characterized by two signi-

ficant aspects: first, the low level at which it has been maintained

and, secondly, the remarkable stability of the rate.

The intention of the central bank to maintain an artificially

low discount rate Is illustrated by its initial actions in 1923. At

the time of the founding of the Banco de la Rep6blica in that year

the market rate of interest was fluctuating between 12 and 15 per cent.

Accordingly, so as not to upset the financial market, the Bank insti-

tuted a discount rate of 12 per cent on commercial loan rediscounts,

the only paper then eligible. Less than a year later the central bank

had reduced this to 7 per cent, and by July, 1933 to 4 per cent.8 This

action was taken without regard to market forces, but was simply de-

signed to provide cheap credit for short-term commercial operations.

A similar policy apparently still prevails. The ordinary com-

mercial discount rate which existed during the 1950's was never lower

than 4 per cent nor higher than 5 per cent, except for a short period


Peter G. Fousek, Foreign Central Banking: The Instruments
of Monetary Policy (New York: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, 1957),
p. 13.

8G. Botero de los Rios, "Breve Exegesis de lea Funciones Mone-
tarias del Banco de aI Repo6lica," Revista del Banco de la RepublLca,
KXXVI (August, 1963), 1007.











during 195b when a small percentage of these discounts were eligible

at 3 per cent. As we shall see at a later point in this chapter,

these rates do not seem to reflect the forces existing In the market.

As mentioned above, by July, 1933 the ordinary commercial dis-

count rate had declined to 4 per cent. This rate was maintained with-

out change until L95b. At that time an experiment was attempted

which set a discount rate of 3 per cent on commercial loans granted

by the banks at 5 per cent interest, a 4 per cent discount rate on 75

per cent of the discount quota of each individual bank; and, a rate

of 5 per cent on the remainder of each bank's discount quota. In 1957

the special 3 per cent rate was eliminated, the discount rate of 5

per cent applied to 40 per cent of each bank's discount quota, and

the remaining 60 per cent of the quota was eligible at 4 per cent.

In 1959 this structure was simplified by discounting sil eligible

commercial loans at 5 per cent.

The ordinary commercial discount rate, however, was not the

only discount rate which existed In Colombia during the period under

study. As is common in many countries, Colombia maintained a structure

of differential discount rates established on the basis of the dif-

ferent kinds of paper eligible for rediscount. In addition to the

"basic" 90-day commercial loan rate, a 3 per cent race existed through-

out the fifties for loans made against agricultural products in bonded

warehouses.

An additional rate of three and one half per cent was estab-

lished in 1957 on paper representing medium-term loans (i.e., less than











150 days) for certain agriculture and cattle operations, extended in

1959 to include loans to industry. This race however, applied only

to loans made at 6 per cent, or less, interest.

In 1958, discount loans were extended to cover an entirely

different type of operation: long-term development loans to agriculture

and cattle firms,10 later extended to include some types of rural con-

struction. The eligibility of these types of loans, ranging 1 to 5

years in maturity depending upon the use of the loan, marked a true

exception to the rules under which the Banco de la Republica had

operated since its founding in 1923.

We shall discuss these rules and the philosophy of the Banking

Laws of 1923 more explicitly at a later point in this chapter. For

the present it is only necessary to note that the eligibility of

these long-term loans for discount at the central bank was an unprece-

dented action; the the discount race which was applied was one point

less than the ordinary commercial Loan rate; and that the commercial

banks were directly forbidden to charge more than 7 per cent interest

on this type of loan. Due to the apparent reluctance of the commercial

banks to grant this type of loan further legislation was enacted in

1959, which required all commercial banks to extend this type of credit

equivalent to not less than 15 per cent of its demand and term deposits.11


9RevLsta del Banco de la Rap~blica, (1957-1961).

10Decreto Extraordinario 198 de 1957, in: Angel, p. 360.

lLey 26 de 1959, in: Angel, p. 392











This differential discount rate structure was, of course, a

form of selective credit control. However, the most significant aspect

of the discount rate techniques employed by the Directors of the

Banco de la Republica has been the effect of the discount rate on

the general level of interest rates in Colombia. Ordinary commercial

loans, in order to be eligible for discount at the central bank,

could not be made at more than 2 points above the existinA discount

rate. We have already seen that the commercial loan discount rates

in effect during the period 1950 to 1960 were quite low in an absolute

sense, either 4 or 5 per cent or, for a short time in 195b, 3 per cent.

This meant, therefore, that eligible commercial loans could not be

made at more than 5 to 7 per cent interest.

The other types of loans, eligible for preferential discount

rates, were similarly controlled. As we have seen, b per cent was the

maximum allowed for 150-day agriculture and cattle loans, while banks

could charge no more than 7 per cent interest on the long-term develop-

ment loans.

Since early 1952 the central bank has directly intervened to

set maximum limits which banks were permitted to pay on eligible types

of deposits. As we have seen in Chapter III, banks could pay interest

on term and savings deposits only, and were specifically forbidden

to pay interest on either type of demand deposit. These interest rates

were also characterized by their rigidity -- once set in April of 1952,

they remained unchanged for the balance of the decade -- and their ab-

normally low level. These rates of interest were structured according

to the length of time which the deposit remained in the bank, rising











from an annual rate of 1 per cent for deposits remaining in the bank

for a minimum of three months to a legal maximum of 4 per cent a year
12
on deposits of over two years.2

It will be useful to compare the interest rates charged and

paid by Colombian banking institutions with an estimation of the

"market interest rate, or the rate of interest which the market

factors would tend to produce were they permitted to do so. Since

no such interest rate actually existed in Colombia during the period

under study, the "market" rate of interest may be imputed by calcu-

lating dividend yields in the stock market and estimated yields of

Colombian bond issues. The results are shown in Tables 4-1 and 4-2.

The bond yields shown in Table 4-1 clearly fall into two categories.

Bonds of the public or quasi-public entities generally produced a

lower yield than bonds of the private entities. Such low yields were

made possible because only a relatively small part of these bond

issues were held on a voluntary basis. If the various banking and

financial institutions were not required by law to hold these bonds,

undoubtedly yields would be much higher. The bond issues of the pri-

vate entities and the Anctoqula issue were not affected by these holding

requirements. Therefore, the much higher yields of these bonds are

fairly illustrative of the unregulated race of interest in the bond

market.


1Acuerdo de 18 de Abril de 1952, in: Angel, p 289.





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The dividend yields obtained in the stock market were, in

most cases, similar to the yields on the bond issues without holding

requirements. The dividend yields, as shown in Table 4-2, are actu-

ally an understatement of the real rate of return due to the valuation

of stock dividends, when declared, at par value rather than market

value.

From the data contained in Tables 4-1 and 4-2, it appears

that market factors tended towards a rate of interest of 10, 12 or

even 14 per cent. The full extent of the disequilibrating influence

of the central bank interest rate policies may be seen by comparing

the imputed "market" rates of interest to the rates of interest which

the central bank tended to maintain through the use of its discretion-

ary powers.

In addition to its discretionary powers over discount and

interest rates, the Board of Directors of the central bank have had,

since 1949, the discretionary authority to vary the reserve require-

ments of the banking institutions. As in the United States, there

were legal limits set on the level of these reserves: between 10 and

30 per cent against demand deposits and between 5 and 20 per cent
13
against term deposits.1 Within these limits, however, Directors of

the Banco de la Republica wielded discretionary powers.


13Non-shareholding banks, of only very minor importance in
Colombia, were required to maintain 100 per cent reserves against
deposits; see Decreto Extraordlnario 756 de 1951, in: Angel, p. 277.











In both preference and in actual practice, the Directors of

the central bank have preferred manipulation of the reserve require-

r.ent rather than changes in the discount rate as a means of influencing
14
credit and monetary conditions.6 Thus, while the basic discount rate

remained almost stationary between 1950 and 1960, the level of re-

quired reserves of commercial banks against demand deposits was

changed no less than 34 times during this period, while reserves

against time deposits were altered on 22 different occasions.15

In addition to its discretionary powers over the level of

these required reserves, the Directors of the central bank also were

endowed with the authority to impose special "marginal" reserve re-

quirements. These "marginal' or supplementary reserve requirements

were applied against increases in deposits on current account.

In Colombia, where export and import operations are of con-

siderable importance to the entire economy,

"variations in primary reserve requirements, and in the im-
position and removal of supplementary requirements against in-
creases in deposits, were at first mainly intended to offset
the effects of gold and foreign exchange gains or losses upon
the money supply. More recently, however, reserve ratio changes
were used in a more positive manner, and requirements were
tightened on several occasions in order to help curb domesticL
inflationary pressures by restraining bank credit expansion. '


14cf: Editorial, Revista del Banco de la Republica, XXIV
(September, 1951), 900.

Revista del Banco de la Republica (1950-1961)

Fousek, p. 51.










Thus, with the rising coffee earnings prior to 1955, for

example, the regular reserve requirements were slowly rising -- from

12 per cent in early 1951 to a high of 22k per cent in April, 1955 --

while supplemental reserve requirements were in effect during most

of 1952, the better part of 1954, and during the middle of 1955.

Again from the middle of July, 1957 until May, 1960 marginal reserve

requirements were used to supplement increased regular reserve re-

quirements to reduce domestic inflationary pressures.17

Without considering seasonal fluctuations, the data indicate

that commercial bank reserve balances increased steadily from 1950

to 1960. Amounting to about PS $90 million in December of 1949, these

reserves had grown to PS $644 million in July, 1960. In addition,

despite attempts to restrain bank credit expansion, the commercial

banks were able to maintain a fairly safe cushion of excess reserves

until early 1958. By March of that year, however, the combination

of rising reserve requirements and high marginal reserve requirements

had all but erased commercial bank excess reserves. Indeed, until

the end of 1960, except for seasonal fluctuations, the commercial

banks were operating with only minimal excess reserves and, on

several occasions between middle 1958 and middle 1960, reserves

actually declined below the minimum level required.

As we have seen in Chapter III, the money supply expanded

rapidly and at a nearly constant rate during the entire period 1950

to 1960. Similarly total loans outstanding of the commercial banks


17tvista del Banco de la4 epablica (1950-1961).











grew throughout the same period, from PS $4b9 million in December,

1349 to over PS $2453 at the end of 1960. The rates of nrouth in

both cases were not altered during the last two and one half years

of this period during which time commercial bank excess reserves

iere practically non-existent.

To a large extent the failure to effectively restrain money

and credit expansion is to be explained through the discount quota

system which existed in Colombia during this period. This quota

system allowed commercial banks to discount eligible paper at the

Banco de la Republica up to a certain percentage of each bank's

capital and legal reserve. The board of Directors of the central bank

were invested with the discretionary power to adjust the commercial

bank discount quota within the legal limits set by law.18

As we have seen, the level of legal reserves maintained by

the commercial banking system rose steadily from 1950 to 1960. With

these rising reserves the discount quota of the commercial banks

automatically would rise. The Directors of the central bank could,

however, at their discretion merely lower the discount quota as a

percentage of reserves and capital when these increased, thus off-

setting the one expansionary factor with a parallel deflationary

factor. In fact. the opposite occurred. In the face of an auto-

matically rising discount quota due to rising reserves, the discount

quota was further increased by raising the quota as a percentage of


18Decreto Extraordinario 756 de 1951, in: Angel, p. 276.











reserves and capital. While at the beginning of the period under study

each commercial bank was entitled to discount paper up to an amount

equal to 120 per cent of its capital and reserves, by June, 1960

these banks were able to discount paper equivalent to 370 per cent

of capital and reserves.

These contradictory policies were quite notable, for example,

during the period from the middle of 1958 to the end of 1960. We have

seen how the Directors of the central bank raised the level of re-

quired reserves during this period in an attempt to reduce the ability

of the commercial banks to extend loans. However, durlnb the same

period of time the discount quota of the commercial banks actually

rose from 250 per cent to 370 per cent of capital and reserves,

thereby increasing the capacity of the commercial banks to extend

loans, not to mention the automatic increase in the discount quota

due to rising reserves and capital.

In this way, the existing monetary policies were working at

cross purposes and tended to produce contradictory effects. As a net

result, the commercial banks were in a position, throughout most of

the 1950's, to freely expand their loans, thus adding to the money

supply.

In sum, it may be said that the discretionary powers of the

Board of Directors of the Banco de la Republica between 1950 and 1960

did not appear to be exercised with a single-minded intent. The

artifically low interest rates which the central bank Directors were

able to create through its discount policies insured a steady and











strong pressure from borrowers on the credit capacity of the commercial

banks. The reserve requirements and marginal reserve requirements

generally tended towards contracting the loan capacity of the com-

mercial banks. And, finally, the system of discount quotas success-

fully circumvented the restrLctive effects of the system of required

reserves, thereby permitting the commercial banks to freely accomao-

date the demands of the public to borrow. A3 a result, the level of

commercial bank loans outstanding rose rapidly and continuously.


4-4 The Commercial Loan Doctrine

The principle of discretionary authority, upon which the

powers of the Board of Directors of the Banco de la Republica to

influence the money and credit market rested, was in contradiction

to the philosophy of the banking system as embodied in its founding

legislation, the Banking Laws of 1923.

The philosophy of this legislation, which continues to define

the broad legal authorities of banking institutions in Colombia, was

the principle of automaticity. The intent of the rules laid down

was to insure an automatic regulation of the supply of money sufficient

to meet the money and credit needs of the country without deliberate

interference from the monetary authorities, or, In other words, with-

out the use of discretionary powers.

The implementation of this philosophy rested in the provision

of Banking Law 25 that the central bank could not make loans, discounts,

or investments in documents, bonds, or bills of exchange maturing In

more than ninety days, except for paper fully covered by agricultural































ments in Colombia.

The commercial loan, or 'real bills," doctrine assumes that

the demand for such loans, and hence the supply of eligible paper,

will adjust itself to the current volume of production and thus match

each peso of credit with a peso of available goods.21 Unfortunately,

however, there is no force within the banking system which tends to

automatically adjust the volume of bank loans at any one time to

the requirements of monetary stability.

"The essential error in this real-bills doctrine is the con-
tention that basing the money on the mangy value of some kind
of economic good will limit its quantity. When it is proposed
that the quantity of money be made to depend upon the value of
some commodity, the unsoundness of the proposal has usually been
recognized; but for some very strange reason it has not been so
frequently understood that money which is related in quantity
to the money value of some kind of credit instrument arising
out of business transactions suffers from precisely the same
shortcoming. '22


19Bernardo Rueda Vargas, A Statement of the Laws of Colombia
(Washington: Pan American Union, 1961), pp. 221-222.
20
International Bank, p. 303.
21
22 Ibntd.
"2hints, p. 178.











In an inflationary environment prices will be driven up by

several producers or merchants bidding for the same available re-

sources, goods, or commodities. In the process, the extention of

commercial bank loans to meet the competitive demands for credit

adds to the inflationary pressures, even though these banks remain

wholly within the rule that only eligible loans should be granted.23

It appears, therefore, in light of the monetary expansion

in Colombia between 1950 and 19o0, that the rigid restrictions imposed

by the Banking Laws of 1923 were of little or no merit as a means

of automatic credit control. However, these regulations did tend

to develop a complete separation of the commercial banking system

from the process of capital formation.24

In the course of their development in Colombia, the commercial

banks have always been managed as any other capitalistic Industry

whose principle incentive Is profit and whose raw material is the

supply of credit.25 The central bank, particularly through its

discount policies, has made the short-term loan the most profitable

and has oriented the commercial banking system toward short-term

credit operations, while discouraging longer-term credit by excluding

these loans from rediscount priviledges. The only notable exception

to this rule, as noted earlier, was the creation of a special discount

rate in 1957 for which certain types of long-term obligations were

eligible.

231nternational Bank, p. 303.
24bid., p. 304.

25Antonio Garcsa, "La Reforma Bancaria y el Control Selactivo
del Credito *n Colombia," 11 TriJrastre Economico, XVIII (July-September,
1951), p. 460.











These conclusions may be illustrated by the data contained

in Table 4-3. It can be seen that the distribution of commercial

bank loans and discounts remained very nearly unchanged from 1952 to

1960. The small increase in loans destined to agriculture and the

cattle industry is largely explained by the favorable treatment

which these types of obligations received at the central discount

window.

The term structure of commercial bank loans is equally re-

vealing. In 1953, fully 90 per cent of all commercial loans were

short-term, while one-tenth of one per cent were long-term. At the

end of the decade short-term loans continued to absorb over four-

fifths of all commercial bank credit and long-term loans accounted

for about four per cent of all commercial credit.26


4-5 The Specialized Credit Institutions

A significant change, however, was occurring in the Colombian

credit system during these years. While the social role of the com-

mercLal banking system continued to be oriented along the lines dis-

cussed above and the distribution of commercial bank credit remained

almost unchanged, longer-term development-type loans were becoming

increasingly available. These funds bad their origin with the specialized

credit institutions that were gaining increasing prominence in Colombia

during the 1950'6.

26l Bnco de la public 1950-1 ).
Revista del Banco de la Repiblica (1950-1961).





86














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The growth of these Institutions was reflected in the declining

hare of all bank loans and discounts originating with the commercial

banks While commercial bank loans and discounts accounted for over

31 per cent of all loans and discounts granted by all banking institu-

tions, excepting the Banco de la Republica, at the end of 1949, this

share had declined to 68 per cent by the end of 1960.

This trend had similar important effects in the term structure

of total bank credit. While commercial banks continued to allot 80

to 90 per cent of their credit to short-term obligations, by the end

of 1960 medium and long-term credit amounted to over 42 per cent of

all credit granted by all banking institutions, excepting the central

bank.27

The growth and activities of these specialized credit institu-

tions merit full and detailed study. Unfortunately, however, due to

the essential limitations of space we must confine ourselves to a

brief discussion of the role and importance of these institutions.

With the exception of the savings banks, which might also be

regarded as a specialized credit institution, these institutions were

usually formed as a means of providing medium and long-term credit to

various sectors in the economy which were not adequately served in

their credit needs by the commercial banking system. Their subsequent


Calculated from Departamento Administrativo Nacional de
Estadfstica, Anuario General de Estadsftica, Colombia, (Annual editions,
1952 to 1960) (Bogota": Multilith Estadinal, 1954-1962).











growth reflected an increasing awareness of the necessity to foster

certain activities calculated to further the process of economic

development in Colombia.

The most important of these credit institutions were grouped

around three areas of activity. These were, in agricultural and

livestock development, the Caja de Credito Agrarlo, Industrial and

Minero -- the largest savings bank in Colombia; the Banco Agricola

Hipotecarlo, which merged with the Caja Agraria in 1955; the Banco

Ganadero, the Banco Cafetero y de Exporcaciones; the Instituto de

Colonizacion e Inmigracron; the Instituto de Fomento Algodonero, and

several others. In industrial and energy development the Instituto

de Fomento Industrial, the Banco Popular, and the Instituto de

Aprovechamiento de Aguas y Pomento Elictrico were most significant.

The institutions involved in the development of construction, housing,

and municipal works were the Banco Central Hipotecario, the Instituto

de Credito Territorial, the Instituto de Fomento Municipal, and the

Banco Hipotecario Popular.

The remarkable growth of these institutions during the decade

of the fifties presented serious problems which arose in connection

with obtaining the finances necessary to allow them to conduct the

credit operations for which they were created. These entities re-

ceived the bulk of their resources principally from allocations under


2BUnited Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs,
Economic Commission for Latin America, Analyses and Projections of
Economic Development. III, The Economic Development of Colombia
(E/CM.12/365/Rev. 1, November, 1956) (Geneva, 1957), p. 117.











the national budget, investments in bond issues by public and private

financial LnrtitutLons, and from the Banco de La Republica.29

In our examination of the expansion and sources of the money

supply In Chapter III we saw that investment in documents of public

debt by the Banco de LI Republica expanded from PS $141.4 million at
30
the end of 1949 to about PS $750 million by the end of 1960. The

bulk of the central bank's long-term credit contribution to the

specialized credit institutions is contained in these statistics.

Unfortunately, it is difficult to estimate the exact percentage

of all central bank investment in documents of public debt that was

absorbed by the specialized credit institutions. However, it may

be said that most central bank investment in the specialized credit

institutions was funnelled into the Banco Central Hipotecario, and

that at the end of December, 1960 this amounted to over PS $111 million,

or about 15 per cent of all central bank investment in documents of

public debt.31

Central bank loans and discounts to the specialized credit

institutions have been, at least since 1957, on a larger scale. Table

3-3 illustrates the amount of Banco de La Republica loans and discounts

to the national government and other official entities. It may be seen

that the amount of this credit remained very moderate until 1957, at

which time it suddenly expanded to over PS $300 million and remained


291bid., p. 120.

3See Table 3-3.

31anco de La Repiblica, iXXIX Informe..Anual del Gerente a la
Junta Directive. Primere Parte, (Bogota; Banco de La iWiSblics, 1963),
p. 113.




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