Schlemmer---Dulran, 1985 j I- l
There has been lots of AXiC activity. The ANC has/had Gatcha's nephew locked up, first in
Dar es Salamm then in Zambia. Gatcha has also been in a running battle with the UDF. There
was a possibility that Ink.ta =i could be neutral but instead there was a debate over
whether Inkata would-be permitted to join and this lead to antagonism between the two
organizations. UDF affiliates started Quazulu protests in the townships. At the rally in
-; Lamontville (where I expected ik~dxaxkeix a bloodbath, and for warning against it IN now
out of favor) Gatcha promised there would be no trouble. He went in with inkata in overwhelming
force. The meeting was well organized and there were no problems but the UDF was totally intimidated.
Gatcha gave Yennedy a 50 minute sermon and then dragged him out to see 10,000 Inkata supporters.
This is the calm before the storm. Wait until the new congressional parties have to fight.,
real elections. The uroup Areas Act will be a problem. The Uovernment will give way on
education, housing, etc. within economic constraints. They have maybe 18 months' of grace and
then there will have to be some action. The white elections have been postponed until 1989.
if an election were held today the right wing would do very well and the PFP would do quite
badly. A lot of the shifting has to do with the condition of the economy. There has been a
swing to the Nats from the PFP and the English speakers. External pressures are pushing
the PFF toward the Nat's patriotic banner. The PFP has not been getting into the news. Gatcha,
the UDF, both get much more coverage.
Ragbanski is a KiimBx wily politician. He lives it. His constitency is lar y working class.
*he government is worried. The police feel under too much pressure. The aim may be to have
another Sharpsville. The early rent protests were very peaceful but once mobilized the youthful
elements try to provoke the police. They 1) burned 45 Indian saops, 2) murdered councilors
3) bus attacks 4) provocation (look at Tommy Mali's statemets in the Daily Express interview)
The government must control the police to prevent issue creation/and the following radicalization.
The army was not used during the election. The protests were in fact genuine. After that,
when there were killings, the police were backed up by the army. the "strike was not due to the
use of the army."
There is a real question whether the present mood of turmoil can be sustained or whether
it will die down.auix Movements tend to be cyclic and has categories of black leaders don't
The uur can only function when there is an.issue to focus attention action, and solidarity.
Terror (Lekota) is trying to keep the factions together. Cusa joined both UDF and the NF.
There is a danger that the uDF leadership will be taken over by white radicals, Indians, and
DIACONIA---underpins the UDF in the Cape. They are deeply into community politics, phone;
312681/ 312619 Talk to Patty Kearney--he is relevant to the extra parliamentary activity.
The average white house costs 70,000 X the average black house between 4 and 5,000.
2/3 of the blacks like American companies.
Sol Olinsky---Revele for Radicals
We need to see hard symbolid action, withhold visas, landing rights, etc.
If Wolpie, sixxxal et al., can pose well-prepared questions and get hard answers fx r on
saxtkidftc apartheidAsupported by the threat of sanctions or disinvestment.
Botha has hinted that if pressed he may form a soviet alliance.
L. Boul r?)---Durban, 1985
The PFP was shocked by the results of the referendum and the defection of its membership,
as evidenced by the large vote for ratification.
The economic position is disastrous. South Africa is pushing for a settlement in Namibia.
They are spending about a billion rand per year on Namibia. That's about 1/3 of the whole
defense force budget. There was a voluntary cut back in the defense budget of 200 million rand.
The commitment of the military to ihamibia increased the military's power. There is a shift of
power away fmnn the parliament More and more issues are being defined in terms of National
hendrickse and H1ajbanski are government members.
Consensus is defined by the standing rules and orders as agreement among members of the majority
xpaxix parties, i.e. Nats-for whites, Labor--colored, NP--Indian.
VonVuke is a faimexnrx former law professor who is now Director general of Constitutional Development.
We are seeing a different set of managers who are more sophisticated.
UDF has a problem over a lackrf issues.
rHE SEPT 85 CON'EDEREATO Or T&RALE UWNI0lS WILL PUT "GENmuiEE PRESSURES ON THE SYSTi'".
The Durban trialists sequence of events
Stage 1) Banning order, Stage 2) banning invalidated, Stage 3) new banning order, Stage 4) Fled
Lawrence Boul wants to come to the ASA meeting, asked you to write (to see if there is a way to
put him on the program?)