Group Title: Florida Consortium
Title: The Florida Consortium
CITATION THUMBNAILS PAGE IMAGE ZOOMABLE
Full Citation
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Permanent Link: http://ufdc.ufl.edu/UF00095094/00001
 Material Information
Title: The Florida Consortium facilitating the effective and routine use of climate information
Physical Description: v. : ill., maps ; 28 cm.
Language: English
Creator: Zierden, David
O'Brien, James J
Jones, James W.
Hildebrand, Peter E.
Zazueta, Fedro S.
Jagtap, S. S.
Podesta, Guillermo
Letson, David
Broad, Kenny
Donor: unknown ( endowment ) ( endowment ) ( endowment ) ( endowment ) ( endowment ) ( endowment ) ( endowment ) ( endowment )
Publisher: Florida Consortium of Universities
Place of Publication: Gainesville, Fla.
Publication Date: 2001
Copyright Date: 2001
 Subjects
Subject: Long-range weather forecasting -- Florida   ( lcsh )
Information storage and retrieval systems -- Crops and climate   ( lcsh )
Climatic factors -- Florida   ( lcsh )
Genre: government publication (state, provincial, terriorial, dependent)   ( marcgt )
non-fiction   ( marcgt )
Spatial Coverage: United States of America -- Florida
 Notes
General Note: Caption title.
General Note: "August
Statement of Responsibility: Jim J. O'Brien, ... et al..
 Record Information
Bibliographic ID: UF00095094
Volume ID: VID00001
Source Institution: University of Florida
Holding Location: University of Florida
Rights Management: All rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier: oclc - 433150966

Full Text


































THE FLORIDA STATE
UNIVERSITY


.L UNIVERSITY OF

,.. FLORIDA

Institute of Food and Agricultural
Sciences


ROSENSTIEL SCHOOL
OF MARI MNE k &AT PHERIC SCIENCE


Center for Ocean-Atmospheric
Prediction Studies








August 1,2001


The Florida Consortium
Facilitating the Effective and Routine Use of Climate Information

Florida State University Jim J. O'Brien, David Zierden
University of Florida James W. Jones, Peter E. Hildebrand, F. S. Zazueta, S. S. Jagtap
University of Miami Guillermo Podesta David Letson, Kenny Broad.


The Florida Consortium (FLC) is a collaboration between University of Florida, Florida State University,
and University Miami, and has operated as a pilot project since 1996 with research support from NOAA.
Our research has demonstrated a strong potential in Florida's agriculture sector for the use of climate
information to achieve socioeconomic benefits. Through our extensive collaboration with the Florida
Agricultural Extension Service, the Florida Climate Center and other stakeholders, we have identified a
sustained demand for a range of specialized forecasts and information produced in our pilot project. To
succeed on a larger scale for Florida's agriculture, our research must be wedded to an operational
system of information delivery with continuous liaison between those who produce and use this
information. Only through a permanent operational effort with continued supporting research can we
provide information to stakeholders that is relevant, timely and useful.


Background

Goal to promote applications of seasonal climate forecasts (3-6 months in advance) for
reducing negative consequences of climate variability and taking advantage of expected
favorable conditions.
Research on climate variability with emphasis on improved agricultural decision making.
NOAA funding totaling more than $1.3 million. Focus since 1999 has been on agricultural
applications in Florida; initial work was done in Latin America.


Findings

Considerable impact of climate variability on SE agriculture and forestry; much of it is associated
with the El Nirfo-La Nifa phenomenon. Recent extended drought in the SE USA is an example of
typical La Nifa conditions, and the 1997-98 El Niio event caused more than $500 million losses
in Florida alone.
Use of climate information has high potential value in Florida; estimates of more than $100 million
per year in agriculture and forestry.
Close cooperation between research and extension efforts is essential for success. FLC closely
cooperates with Florida Automated Weather Network (FAWN) and the State Climatology Office.


Opportunities for Expansion

High level of interest by NOAA to expand our research support over next five years
$4-6 million in NOAA support for research anticipated.
NOAA support depends on our vision and strategy and the level of State support and
commitment. NOAA will not fund operational programs. We must strengthen cooperation between
our research effort and Extension as a mechanism for sustainable applications of climate
information in Florida.








Additional funding will be needed for expansion. Strategy includes mechanisms for increasing
support for operational programs (e.g., extension) that will enable them to provide information,
training, and support.
High interest from neighboring states. Great opportunity to obtain support for regional
cooperation.
Comprehensive review of our FLC research effort by NOAA-OGP management in March 2002


Strategy

Sustained provision of climate information to Florida's extensive and diverse agricultural community
requires that we strengthen and maintain linkages between FLC research activities and operational users
in the agricultural community. We must provide support services, including outreach to agricultural trade
organizations in part through an Internet information system coordinated with Florida Automated Weather
Network (FAWN), the State Climate Center, state universities, and national and regional climate forecast
providers.

We request that the Florida Department of Agriculture consider funding a sustained operational capability
for the Florida Consortium. The amount requested is $600K per year split evenly among the three
universities. The roles of each university are:

1) The Florida State University will direct the State Climate Office (at FSU) to provide timely
and new climate information of direct benefit to the agriculture and forestry sectors (Lead
P.I., Dr. Jim O'Brien)

2) The University of Florida will direct IFAS to provide funds to sustain the delivery of
climate and crop production advice to all sectors of agriculture and forestry (Lead P.I., Dr.
Jim Jones)

3) The University of Miami will direct the Rosenstiel School to serve as an outreach liaison
between producers and users of climate information by assessing the social, financial,
and technical achievements of the investments (Lead P.I., Dr. Guillermo Podest )

We propose to provide a complete proposal to the state of Florida to justify this investment. We also
request that State officials join in an effort with all three FLC universities to lobby for federal support
for a regional climate information center in Florida.













The State of Florida Climate Office
The Florida State University
a Request to
The Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services


The State Climate Office located at The Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies at the
Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida, is developing new climate products aimed at providing
advance forecasts for agriculture. Examples are drought, flood, freezes, heat waves, and conditions for
wild fires. These are based on analysis of all previous weather data with strong consideration of El Nifio
and La Nifia. Along with the other partners in the Florida Consortium, we propose that DOA fund FSU
to provide improved and specialized climate forecasts for delivery to agricultural producers by IFAS,
Univ. of Florida.



Budget
State Climate Support for Florida Agriculture

1) Salaries
Dr. Jim O'Brien (1 mo) 13,500
Senior Climatologists (12 mo) 50,000
Assistant Climatologist (12 mo) 27,000
Staff Support (4 mo) 15,000
Undergraduates 5,000

2) Fringe
Salaries @ 30% 31,650

3) Expense
Travel 8,000
Communications 2,000
Publication 3,000
Research Supplies 13,993
Computer maintenance 8,000

4) Equipment 14,000

5) Indirect Costs @ 5% 8,857


TOTAL REQUESTED


200,000










University of Florida Request for Support to The Florida Department of Agriculture and
Consumer Services

The FLC was created to assess the potential for agricultural applications of climate forecasts. Our
initial research, funded by NOAA, focused on Latin America; over the last two years we have
shifted our focus to Florida. We have shown that there is considerable potential economic benefit
for applications of climate forecasts to agriculture and forestry in Florida (on the order of $100
million annually). However, we have concluded that to realize these benefits, applied research is
needed for different commodities. Extension efforts are essential to reach agricultural decision
makers, to inform them of this potential, to learn from them about specific research needs, and to
provide timely information to them, tailored for their commodities and regions of the state.
Whereas there is a high probability that NOAA will continue to fund our FLC research efforts,
they will not support extension or operational programs. Additional support is essential if the
potential benefits are to be realized in Florida. Furthermore, Florida is in a position to lead an
expanded effort across the SE USA, with potential to attract additional federal support.

We are therefore requesting support for a climate forecast/information application center in
Florida. The center would consist of staff associated with the existing State Climate Office at
FSU, the Florida Agricultural Extension Service at UF, and an office at UM that would be
responsible for coordinating agricultural applications with other institutions, such as water
management districts, for liaison with other providers of climate information, and for
coordinating our application efforts with NOAA supported research.

The UF funding would be used to support an Extension Specialist for climate applications. This
person would be responsible for developing commodity-specific applications, working with FLC
researchers, extension agents, and farmers/ranchers, and provide leadership for a statewide major
program on climate and weather. He or she would set priorities and be responsible for the overall
conduct and evaluation of climate applications program. An information specialist would be
responsible for developing internet-based decision aids (for implementation on FAWN) and other
extension products, such as training materials and fact sheets. An office assistant (1/2 time) would
provide secretarial and administrative support for the overall effort at UF. The requested UF
budget is:


1) Salaries
a. Climate Extension Specialist 60,000
b. Information, Communication Specialist 38,000
c. Staff Support 15,000
2) Fringe Benefits (@ about 28%) 31,640
3) Equipment 10,000
4) Commodity mini grants (5 at 4,000 each) 20,000
5) Expenses
a. Travel 8,000
b. Communications 2,000
c. Publications 2,000
d. Supplies 3,836
Total Direct Costs 190,476
6) Indirect Cost (5%) 9,524


TOTAL ANNUAL REQUEST FOR UF COMPONENT


200,000











University of Miami Request to the Florida Department of Agriculture and
Consumer Services

The Florida Consortium (FLC) has operated as a pilot project since 1996 with research support from
NOAA. Our research has demonstrated a strong potential in Florida s agriculture sector for the use of
climate information to achieve socioeconomic benefits. While we have identified a sustained demand for a
range of specialized forecasts, to succeed on a larger scale for Florida, agricultural applications must be
carefully coordinated not only with forecast users but also with other forecast providers and essential
mediating institutions, such as water management districts. FLC needs a climate services office that would
serve as a liaison between those who produce and use climate information. Only through a permanent
operational effort with continued supporting research can we provide information to stakeholders that is
relevant, timely and useful.

The UM funding will support a Climate Services Office coordinator who would:
* Monitor all activities of the FLC and guarantee that the linkages between research and operational
entities are ongoing and strong.
* Provide support services as needed, including:
outreach to the agricultural community;
an Internet information system coordinated with Florida Automated Weather Network
(FAWN), the State Climate Center and state universities; and
linkage with national and regional climate forecast providers
* Work closely with state and private sector organizations to
define research priorities,
design and develop educational and information products,
disseminate products to relevant stakeholders, and
evaluate the efficacy of various efforts.
* Ensure the most advanced forecast products are available for adaptation and use.
* Emphasize forecast applications relevant statewide that would also provide opportunities for new
scientific developments.

FLC PIs Broad, Letson and Podesta (12.5% support) will provide socioeconomic expertise on the
communication and use of climate information needed to carry out the liaison functions of the Office. A
ti;ctia! assistant will support outreach activities. An office assistant will provide s~rtLarial dia
administrative support. The requested UM budget is:

Budget

Salary and fringe benefits:
Coordinator $60K + 25% fringes $75K
FLC PIs (12.5% support) $19K + 25% fringes $24K
Administrative Assistant (1/2 support) $15K + 21% fringes $18K
Technical Assistant (1/2 support) $15K + 21% fringes S18K
$135K
Travel $10K
Outreach Activities $25K
(training, focus groups, product development, publications, internet support, communications)

Equipment $1 0K
Supplies $1 OK
Total Direct Cost $190K

Indirect Cost (5%) $9.5K


Total Annual Request for UM


$200K








Wednesday, August 1, 2001


Drought damper

By GAYLE BROWN
Sun staff writer

With the return of normal rainfall patterns, Climatologist are poised to
"close the book" on the drought that has parched the state for the past
three years.

Many weather forecasters in Florida began recording rainfall deficits in
April 1998, according to the National Weather Service in Jacksonville.
Since then, Gainesville has accumulated a deficit of more than 46
inches of rain. Since April 1998, the area received 129.01 inches of
rainfall. Based on a 30-year average, the area should have received
175.4 inches.

But David Zierden, assistant state Climatologist at the Florida Climatic
Data Center in Tallahassee, said rainfall deficits may not be the best
indicator of the easing drought conditions.

"What you want is a return to normal rainfall. You don't want an
extended period of above-average rainfall just to make up the deficit -
- then you would have flooding," he said.

The three-year drought was a consequence of La Nifa -- a Pacific
weather current that changes the paths that storms typically travel.
During a strong La NiFa episode, storms are pushed farther north into
the southeast United States and through the Tennessee Valley and the
Carolinas instead of the Gulf Coast, explained Pat Welsh, science
officer at the National Weather Service in Jacksonville. As a result,
Welsh said, "the gulf moisture doesn't get carried into the storms and
therefore we don't get as much rain."

La Nifa has since dissipated, Welch said. The result is the return of
normal rainfall patterns.

Zierden said it would be premature to declare an end to the drought,
but he said the end is in sight.

"At some point, you just have to close the book on the deficit. We are
rapidly approaching that point where all indicators of drought have
returned to normal. We are not quite there yet, but the plentiful rains







since March have gone a long way towards ending the drought,"
Zierden said.

Drought exists on a variety of different levels, Zierden said.

"One level is the agricultural, where the soil is extremely dry and the
lack of moisture impacts crops. Certainly, we have had plenty of rain
this season. From an agricultural standpoint, you have got to say the
drought is over," Zierden said.

Alan Shapiro, owner of San Felasco Nurseries off Millhopper Road, can
attest to that.

"Our pond out here is about to overflow; there's been so much rain
lately," Shapiro said. "Since I've been here, for the past 20 years or
so, it seems like there's either too little rain or too much rain."

Shapiro said too much rain too quickly can be just as bad as the
drought.

"This year the rains came all at once, and that's not good for plant
growth. It makes them prone to fungus," he said.

Zierden said another level of drought involves the risk of wildfires.
"Since the end of April, that hasn't been much of a threat," he said.

Stuart Schwartz, spokesman for Gainesville Fire Rescue, said the
emergency service has seen a significant reduction in the number of
outdoor fires, including brush, wood and trash fires.

"This is attributable to people being more cautious, as well as to the
increased precipitation that has kept the brush and woods moist," he
said.

Zierden said it's also important to look at the hydrological drought.

"Lake and groundwater levels take the longest to return to normal," he
said. "Lake levels are rising, but there's no way to predict how long it
will take for levels to return to normal."

Tom Mirti, a hydrologist with the Suwannee River Water Management
District, said the rain has raised groundwater levels in some places,
but that the Floridan aquifer, the state's main source of water, is still
well below average.








One gauging station in Lafayette County received 16 inches of rain
during the month of July, twice as much as normal, Mirti said.

"That led to a 4-foot rise in the Floridan aquifer, but even at that
station, it's still 4 feet below average."

And there are not signs the rain is going to stop, Zierden said.

"If this plentiful rainfall pattern continues and we get a tropical system
or two, that would go a long way toward returning the lake and
groundwater levels to normal," he said.

With experts calling for a busier-than-normal hurricane season, that
may be a possibility.

"Hurricane experts are calling for an above-average hurricane season,"
Zierden said, "but it's still a matter of chance where and whether any
of them make landfall."

Gayle Brown can be reached at 374-5036 or
qavle.brown@qainesvillesun.com.




S

Application of Seasonal Climate

Forecasts to Agriculture in the


S


.E. U


.S.


Dr. James J. O'Brien


Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies
The Florida State University
Tallahassee, FL
www. coaps.fsu. edu


| THE FLORIDA STATE
UNIVERSITY
Center for Ocean-Atmospheric
Prediction Studies


UNIVERSITY OF
FLORIDA


Institute of Food and Agricultural
Sciences


ROSENSTIEL SCHOOL
OF MARINE & A1TMOSPHIIC SCIENCE




0


Rationale

*Florida agriculture is very
important (9th state nationwide
in value)
*Florida's climate and crop
yields are affected by ENSO
*Improved climate information
can increase profits and
reduce risks

Goal
Effective use of climate
information in agriculture


Florida State University
James J. O'Brien
David F. Zierden


University of Florida
James W. Jones
Shrikant Jagtap
P. Hildebrand
F. Zazueta


University of Miami
Guillermo Podesta
Dave Letson
Kenny Broad





Bridging the gap between producers
and users of climate information

Learn user needs for climate
information and
perceptions of climate risks
Evaluate usefulness and
limitations of climate forecasts
Translate climate forecasts
into decision support for
agriculture
Demonstrate successful
forecast applications working
in close collaboration with
agricultural extension




0


The Florida Consortium

* Describe climate variability in the southeast U.S.
* Assess the vulnerability of agriculture and forestry
to climate variations.
* Demonstrate applications of climate prediction.
* Develop management tools for the application of
climate prediction to agriculture.
* Evaluate forecast use by agriculture and forestry
sectors in order to improve tools, methods, and
climate products.








Forecast Use System


........... ......S ....... .........


nentation
andl ............................l


Adapted from: Sarewitz, Pielke and Byerly 2000. Prediction. Island Press. Page 376.


Fore
Gene


)cast
ration






............................


Forecast
Communication &
Comprehension


Forecast
Utilization


Implen


Evaluation





El Nifio and La Nifia (ENSO):
The Primary Driver of Climate Variability in the Southeast
U.S.


& 0 )L. 1% ;w





ENSO Impacts in Florida


EL Nino


* Very wet and cool winter
and spring
* Greatly reduces Atlantic
hurricanes
* decreases tornadoes in
the tornado alley


La Nina


* Warm and dry Fall, Winter
and Spring
* Greatly increases Atlantic
hurricanes
* Increases tornadoes in the
deep south
* Greatly increases wildfire
activity


Neutral ENSO phase increases the risk of freezes by 3:1 odds.
* No one can predict severe category 4 and 5 hurricanes.










ENSO Effects on Precipitation







El NIfto Seasonal Preclpitatlon La Nlft Seasonal Precipitation
Anomalie Anomalies

+40 +4D




E E
+10 R W NE +10 R
C I
-10 E -10to E
N N
T T40



40 40


i UM ER ur,juy -1791,0


I SP I G %,IrApd Ll,














ENSO Effects on Temperature


El NIfto Seasonal Tmperature
Anomallse


La NIfta Seasonal Temperature
Anomalles


+1.50 +2.70

+125 +225
D E
E G I
G +A +- R 1N EFFECT
R
E 0.75 3+5

S407- 40. F
A


S E
I -0.705 -1 N
UH
E



-125 -225

I C OL I


+1l5

+1.25
D
E
G +1AM-
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E
S
40JO
C
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4.X

425
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+225
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+135

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-115

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--225


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SPRNGvA777


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ENSO and Wildfires



Fire Threat in a La Nifia spring.


Extreme
Well Above Normal
Above Normal LI
Normal to Above Normal | I






ENSO and Florida Freeze

Probabilites

Odds of Freeze Events among the different ENSO phases

200 F or Colder
Neutral vs. La Nifia Neutral vs. El Niio


-I


"ii
--I


SNo significant change


3:2 M 2:1 M 3:1 or greater


S- Rare in All Years






ENSO and Florida


Freeze


Probabilites


Odds of


Freeze Events among the different ENSO phases


220 F or Colder


Neutral vs. La Nina


Neutral vs. El Nino


M 3:2 = 2:1 M 3:1 or greater


I I No significant change


I Rare in All Years






ENSO and Florida Freeze


Probabilites

Odds of Freeze Events among the different ENSO phases

250 F or Colder


Neutral vs. La Niia


Neutral vs. El Niio


I,
-b-


- No significant change


3:2 2:1 3:1 or greater


S/ Rare in All Years






ENSO Agricultural


Case


Studies


I. Orange Solids Quality
Growers must replace rain during La Nifia.

II. Strawberry Growers Switch Varieties
Too much sunshine during La Nifia.

III. Potato Farmers Crown Fields
Provide increased drainage during wet El Nifio


winters.







Assessing and Achieving

Benefits from Climate Forecasts



Dr. James W. Jones


Institute of Food and Agricultural
University of Florida
Gainesville, FL
www. ifas. ufl. edu


THE FLORIDA STATE
UNIVERSITY


Sciences


UNIVERSITY OF cI rI rwamsr
|. FLORIDA m
Institute of Food and Agricultural ROSENSTIEL SCHOOL
OFMSciRINEe ATMOSFPHEICSCIENCE
Sciences


Center for Ocean-Atmospheric
Prediction Studies






Approach

* Analysis of historical data (ENSO effects)
Climate
Agriculture
* Determine options for changing management
Stakeholder interactions
Analytical studies
* Develop methodology and tools
* Implementation & Evaluation
Build linkages with extension, farmers, researchers (exploratory)
Need: Sustainable Climate Application Initiative





2. Analyses of historical agricultural data


Fresh Vegetables:
Winter Tomato and Bell Pepper Yields (1929-95)


0 Yields suppressed during El Ninlo


Source: James Hansen


Tomato


.9


I Bell pepper


*1 I







































Source: James Hansen


0


IGrapefruit, all


-I


-p


Lime






What we Learned;
1. Historical Data Analyses

* High correlations between ENSO activity and many
crop yields; also prices of some vegetable crops
Many crops in Florida show high correlation with ENSO; up
to 20% average yield differences for some crops
1997-98 El Nino event caused ~$165 Million in Florida
Agriculture and Forestry (Fl. Dept. Agr., 1998)
ENSO explained ~$212 Million variability in maize and
$133 Million in soybean value in 4 SE states (Hansen et al.)
* Conclusion: High potential value




* *


Example Benefits

Potato
* 1997-98 Winter Growing Season, South Florida
* 100% losses by farmers who did not form their
fields, clean ditches for increased drainage
* High yields by those who did increase drainage







Example Benefits (potential)

Winter Rye Production
* 1999-2000 Winter Pasture Season, North Central
Florida
* Some farmers lost $75 per acre cost for planting winter
rye grass
* La Nifia year, drought was expected during winter
months
* Some ranchers indicated that they would not have
planted had they known that a drought was expected






Potential Benefits of using Climate Prediction

in Several Commodities in Florida, 1997-98 Example



Tomato (South Peanut Corn
Florida)

1997-98 El Nifio

Yield gain, mgt using climate forecast (Mg/ha) 1 9.7 0.6 0.51

Potential Value, 1997-98 El Niflo (million) $60 M $11 M $0.9 M

Considering all years

% Years when climate forecast would benefit 72% 75% 73%





What We Learned
2. Decision Makers
* Interest in weather event forecasts (hurricanes, freezes,
floods, high temperatures)
* Wide variation in attitudes toward to seasonal climate
prediction (from no confidence to optimism)
* Lack of understanding of forecasts, their uncertainty
* Want localized forecasts
* Want forecasts for competitors' regions
* Market variations may dominate decisions (high value crops)
* Varying flexibility to adjust management among types, sizes
* Strong interest in learning more
* Confidence in Extension Service, encouraged Strong
Extension Program!





4. Build Linkages, Partnerships
Florida Automated Weather Network (FAWN)
FAWN Locations


Source: fawn.ifas.ufl.edu





What We Learned:
4. Implement and Evaluate
* People, institutions, commitments essential
* Extension service ideal mechanism for
sustainable application, Statewide Major
Program
* Complements state weather programs
* Training, evaluation, feedback for improving
products are essential
* Sustained effort is required






Opportunities for Expansion
* NOAA support for research expected ($3-5
million over next 5 years)
* NOAA will not fund operational application
program; State support needed for
sustainable effort in Florida
* High interest in neighboring states;
opportunity to obtain federal funding




* *

Summary

Considerable economic potential
Difficult to realize the potential
Exceptional effort is needed to go from
understanding potential impacts to practice
Sustainable mechanisms are possible
Stakeholder extension links are strong
Need to link operational programs in extension and
climate prediction
Research program bridge gaps & innovate




0


For More Information:





Visit Our Websites


COAPS:


www. coaps.fsu. edu


Florida Climate Center.
www. coaps.fsu. edu/climate center


FAWN: fawn. ifas. ufl. edu


THE FLORIDA STATE
UNIVERSITY


UNIVERSITY OF oU1vELsMoF
FLORIDA
Institute of Food and Agricultural ROSENSTIEL SCHOOL
OF MARINE & ATMOSPHRIC SaENCE
Sciences


Center for Ocean-Atmospheric
Prediction Studies












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THE FLORIDA STATE
UNIVERSITY

Center for Ocean-Atmospheric
DihPliG; an Qtlll;ic


*s"' UNIVERSITY OF

wi: FLORIDA

Institute of Food and Agricultural
Sciences


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IFASAJF






RSMAS/UM









Communicating Climate Risk

to Florida's Agriculture



Kenny Broad, David Letson and Guillermo Podestd


University of Miami/RSMAS
and
The Florida Consortium




THE FLORIDA STATE . UNIVERSITY OF
UNIVERSITY -~.. FLORIDA
I. t ? .


COAPS/FSU
IFASAJF



RSMAS/UM


Inlitute of Food and Agricultural
Sciences


Center for Ocean-Atmospheric
Prediction Studies








Forecast Use System


A.............

* USUUUUUU U U U USUSU


l molen


nentation


and
Evaluation


Adapted fIo n : S r e itz, Pie lke and Bvedy 2000. P.,,. d action. 0 lnI Pre, s e' 37 6.


Forecast
Generation


Forecast
Communication &
Comprehension


Forecast
Utilization


--


4 .................






Human dimensions of decision making

Vulnerability climate matters, but so do:
*international competition,
*prices, and
*technical change.
Winners & Losers:
*risk of poor forecast;
*unequal societal benefit;
*unintended consequences.

Perceptions of Climate:
*misunderstanding of climate forecasting and ENSO;
*Expectations based on recent events;
*Weather/climate confusion.





How Valuable are Climate Forecasts?


*AII Ninos are not alike.

*Commodity prices.

*Short time horizons.

*Order of ENSO events.






A Climate Services Office:
from Research to Application


*Demand for a range of specialized forecasts and information

*Needed: liaison between producers and users.


*Feedback from stakeholders will help:
design appropriate educational & training
effectively disseminate forecast products
better define research priorities
accurately assess value of current efforts


programs







ef M 1
ib,,i owl




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