Group Title: Annual report, Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Florida
Title: Annual report
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Title: Annual report
Series Title: Annual report
Physical Description: Serial
Language: English
Creator: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, Warrington College of Business Administration, University of Florida
Publisher: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, Warrington College of Business Administration, University of Florida
Place of Publication: Gainesville, Fla.
Publication Date: 2009-2010
Copyright Date: 2010
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Bibliographic ID: UF00091101
Volume ID: VID00014
Source Institution: University of Florida
Holding Location: University of Florida
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Bureau of Economic and Business Research
Annual Report 2009-2010


July 2010









Bureau of Economic and Business Research
221 Matherly Hall
P.O. Box 117145
University of Florida
Gainesville, FL 32611-7145
Telephone: 352-392-0171
Fax: 352-392-4739
Web Site: www.bebr.ufl.edu



TUF UNIVERSITY of

SUFFLORIDA
The Foundation for The Gator Nation










Staff members, Bureau of Economic and Business Research
July 2010

Director:
Stanley Smith, Ph.D., Professor and Program Director

Research Programs

Economic Analysis:
James (Jim) Dewey, Ph.D., Program Director
Belen Chavez, B.A.
David Denslow, Ph.D.*
Lynne Holt, Ph.D.*
Eve Irwin, B.A*
Henrique Romero, B.S.

Population:
Stanley Smith, Ph.D., Professor and Program Director
Scott Cody, M.B.A.
Stefan Rayer, Ph.D.

Survey:
Chris McCarty, Ph.D., Professor and Program Director
Gene Averkiou, B.A.
Mark Girson, B.S.
Eric Lavigne, M.S.
Scott Richards, M.A.

Operations Programs

Administrative Services:
Clint Collins, B.S., Program Director
Janet Fletcher
Paula Ivey
Pamela Middleton

Information Technology:
Clint Collins, B.S., Program Director
Ben Goldsbury
Geoff Stewart, A.A.

Information/Publications Services:
Susan Floyd, M.A., Program Director
Eve Irwin, B.A.*
Phoebe Wilson, A.A.

* Part-time











Bureau of Economic and Business Research
Annual Report 2009-2010

About the BEBR

Founded in 1929, the Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR) is an applied research
center in the Warrington College of Business Administration at the University of Florida (UF). Its
primary missions are to: 1) Produce, collect, and tabulate economic and demographic data for
Florida and its local areas; 2) Conduct economic, demographic, and public policy research on
topics of particular importance to the state of Florida; and 3) Distribute data and research findings
throughout the state and the nation. BEBR seeks to conduct research that is both academically
sound and directly relevant to public and private decision makers in Florida.

BEBR plays a number of roles within the state, the college, and the university. It conducts research
that helps decision makers understand Florida's rapidly changing economic and demographic
climate. It provides employment and training for numerous graduate students and more than 300
undergraduate students and part-time employees each year. It generates revenues by obtaining
research contracts and grants and by selling data and publications. It creates favorable publicity for
the college and the university through its publications, presentations, reference services, and
contributions to public policy. Its staff members teach several courses each year. BEBR activities
thus fall within the university's traditional functions of teaching, research, and service, but the
impact of those activities spreads far beyond campus boundaries.

The Year in Review

A severely contracting economy made the last few years very difficult for private businesses and
public institutions throughout the United States. Florida was particularly hard-hit, losing more than
800,000 jobs and billions of dollars in state and local revenues. This decline in revenue led to
budget cuts at UF, creating major challenges for many colleges, departments, and programs.
Despite these challenges, BEBR was able to increase its total revenue by competing successfully
for a variety of contracts and grants. Indeed, revenue from contracts and grants was at its highest
level in the last five years (see Figure 1 for a breakdown of 2009-2010 revenue).

During the past year, staff members served as principal investigators on 27 research contracts,
generating more than $2.7 million in revenue. These contracts helped us maintain a high level of
productivity. Staff members published 21 scholarly articles, research reports, or data
compilations; presented 12 papers at academic/professional conferences; served on 21 university,
professional, or civic boards and committees; taught eight courses (with more than 2,500
students); served on 24 doctoral committees; made 23 presentations to civic groups throughout
the state; and responded to more than 3,000 requests for information from businesses,
government agencies, the media, and members of the general public. These activities added to
BEBR's national reputation as an innovative and productive research center and as a leading
source of socioeconomic and demographic data for the state of Florida.










Figure 1. Estimated Revenues 2009-2010
(preliminary): $3,519,031


Sale of
Products
$117,712 University of
3% Florida
$642,776
18%

Contracts
$2,764,543
79%


Although the economic climate remains uncertain, BEBR continues to work on many ongoing
projects and is embarking on several new ones as well. This report provides an overview of our
activities and accomplishments during the past year and our plans for the coming year.

Florida's population growth declined dramatically over the last few years, from some of the
highest levels in the state's history to some of the lowest. The Population Program tracked
these changes through its calculation of population estimates for all the cities and counties in the
state. These estimates generated a great deal of interest nationwide, with stories citing BEBR
data and quoting BEBR staff members appearing in the New York Times, Wall Street Journal,
USA Today, and many other newspapers and magazines. The Population Program also produced
state and county estimates of households and average household size and projections of the
population by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin. Staff members conducted research on a variety
of demographic topics, provided data to the Florida Legislature and the U.S. Census Bureau, and
responded to many requests for data and analysis from state and local government officials,
business leaders, university researchers, members of the media, and the general public.

Stan Smith and Stefan Rayer had an article accepted for publication in Population Research and
Policy Review, focusing on the use of regression models for analyzing population forecast errors.
Smith and Scott Cody published a report in Florida Focus, analyzing migration trends in Florida
over the last three decades. Smith served as a member of the Population Reference Bureau's
Board of Trustees, the National Research Council's Panel on the Design of the 2010 Census
Program of Evaluations and Experiments, and the U.S. Census Bureau's Population Estimates
Evaluation Committee. He presented papers at two professional conferences, made presentations
to three civic groups, and reviewed five manuscripts for scholarly journals. Rayer reviewed a
manuscript for a scholarly journal and served as a contact person for data releases from the U.S.
Census Bureau. Cody spent a week in Washington, DC, reviewing the address lists that formed
the foundation of the 2010 Census. All three staff members served as Florida's representatives to
the Federal-State Cooperative Programs for Population Estimates and Projections. Future
research will focus on evaluating the accuracy of the program's estimates and projections by
comparing them with 2010 census counts.









The Economic Analysis Program completed a study entitled "High Value Added Green
Economic Development for Sarasota County." The impetus for the study was Sarasota County's
selection as one of Florida's pilot Energy Economic Zones. The study addressed a number of
pertinent questions, such as how to conceptualize "green" economic development; how to
evaluate the merits of energy efficiency and conservation policies compared to the merits of
renewable energy technologies; and how to model the interplay among the county's core
strengths, potential areas of green economic activity, likely federal policies, and the state's
current incentive programs.

Program Director, Jim Dewey, won a prestigious teacher of the year award in the Warrington
College of Business Administration. He continued to work with researchers from the Center on
Personnel Studies in Special Education on studies of the supply and demand for special
education teachers, presenting a summary of that work at Georgia State University. He also
served on the advisory board for the ACCRA Cost of Living Index, produced by the Council for
Community and Economic Research. Dave Denslow gave numerous presentations to civic and
business groups throughout the state. The program continued to construct and publish the Florida
Price Level Index (FPLI) for the Legislature's use in allocating K-12 education funds and
maintains a research agenda focusing on labor and housing markets, with special attention paid
to spatial variations in wages and prices.

The Economic Analysis Program welcomed two new staff members last year. Belen Chavez is
currently testing the accuracy of alternative school funding adjustments using teacher turnover
data from Florida and Texas. Henrique Romero is working to characterize optimal weighting and
sample size for constructing spatial price indices. Both were instrumental in completing the
report for Sarasota County. Long-time research coordinator Babak Lotfinia left the program to
pursue graduate studies. Eve Irwin will assume many of his responsibilities but will continue
working in the Information/Publications Services Program as well.

The Survey Program conducted more than 66,000 interviews during the past year, employing
more than 200 interviewers and generating more than $2.1 million in revenue. The list of new
and recurring clients reflects the program's relevance for policy makers in Florida and its
national reputation for conducting high-quality survey research. An evaluation of Medicaid
reform was one of the program's most visible projects last year. The program's monthly release
of consumer confidence data remains a staple for journalists statewide. As the recovery from the
recent recession unfolds, these data are followed by policy makers in Tallahassee and
organizations outside Florida, such as the Federal Reserve Board. The monthly survey often
includes questions requested by UF administrators and faculty members.

The Survey Program had several significant changes last year. Armando Padilla left the program,
leaving a gap in both project management and administration. Gene Averkiou was promoted to
the position of field director and Eric Lavigne augmented his programming duties by taking over
several projects as project manager. These moves helped reduce costs in the UF Survey Research
Center (UFSRC). Changes were also made to the Scheduler lab management program, the most
important being the development of a new system for reviewing files and evaluating
interviewers. This led to important advances in quality control.









The most exciting development during the past year was the purchase of an office suite in the
Ayers Building on SW 2nd Avenue. Renovations are now underway and are expected to be
completed by the end of the year. At that time, the UFSRC will move into a larger space
designed specifically for survey research. We thank the Warrington College of Business
Administration, the UF Foundation, and the UF administration for their assistance in carrying out
this transaction. Although the facilities in the Seagle Building served us well for almost 10 years,
the new facilities will be a major advancement that will improve the operation of the UFSRC for
many years to come.

The Information/Publications Services Program produced and published six annual or
monthly statistical reports about Florida during the past year, including the widely used and
frequently cited Florida Statistical Abstract. The 2009 edition of the Abstract was recognized as
an "Award of Excellence" winner at the 2009 annual meeting of the Association for University
Business and Economic Research (AUBER).

Staff members also published and distributed four annual reports for the Population Program;
managed all BEBR web site content; prepared the annual school fire safety report for the State
Fire Marshal's office; provided editorial assistance to the Economic Analysis, Population, and
Survey programs; prepared promotional material for and participated in the southwest Florida
region IFAS County Extension video conference; and collaborated with the IT Program on the
BEBR web site e-commerce feature. During the year, Eve Irwin began working part-time for the
Economic Analysis program, resulting in a shift of duties within the Information/Publications
Services Program. Phoebe Wilson became the new editor of the program's annual publications.

Sales of BEBR publications increased 12% over the same period last year. Electronic format
publication sales increased 20% from the previous year and e-mail sales increased 14%, leading
to cost reductions as well as increases in revenue. Staff members coordinated BEBR's
marketing, distribution, and public relations efforts and responded to more than 1,700 telephone
and e-mail information requests throughout the year. Susan Floyd chaired a panel on "E-Mail
Marketing 101" at the 2009 AUBER annual meeting, served on the "Webinars: Tips for
Success" panel, and accepted an invitation to serve on the newly formed AUBER Web Advisory
Committee. Major goals for the coming year include the development of value-added databases
and the full implementation of our new e-commerce system.

The Administrative Services Program manages the budget, tracks revenues and expenditures,
maintains personnel files and appointments, handles orders and shipments of publications,
provides oversight for compliance with UF rules and regulations, and performs many other
essential office tasks. Staff members also provide grant management services for the CIBER
program and maintain the fire safety inspection portal for the State Fire Marshall's Office. These
two projects generated more than $21,000 during the past year.

The Information Technology Program provides essential computing services to all BEBR
employees. Staff members continuously update and redesign the BEBR web site, which
generates approximately 4,600 unique visitors and 32,000 page views each month. Clint Collins
served on UF's Technology Administrative Committee and continues as president of the Gator
Linux Users Group. In personnel moves, Ben Goldsbury was hired as a new database









administrator. To date, he has worked primarily on the implementation and deployment of our e-
commerce system.

BEBR currently employs 19 full-time and two part-time staff members, several graduate and
undergraduate students, and several hundred part-time hourly workers (see Figure 2). This
report provides a quick overview and summary of our activities and accomplishments from May
1, 2009 through April 30, 2010. For additional information of our products, services, and
research activities, check out our website at www.bebr.ufl.edu or give us a call at (352) 392-
0171.












Figure 2. Organizational Chart, BEBR

BEBR Director
Smith


Research Programs


2
Graduate
Research 180-200 3
Assistants Student Student
Assistants Assistants


Operations


Administrative
Services


Information/Publications Information Technology
Services I


Fletcher Middleton Ivey












Table 1. Publications, 2009-2010

Dewey, Jim, David Denslow, and Bob Lotfinia

2009 Florida Price Level Index, report prepared for the Florida Legislature, January 2010.


Dewey, Jim, David Denslow, Lynne Holt, Ted Kury, Eve Irwin, Belen Chavez, Henrique
Romero, Katie Thomason, and Travis Hornsby

High Value Added Green Economic Development for Sarasota County, report prepared for
Sarasota County, February 2010.


Floyd, Susan, Eve Irwin, and Phoebe Wilson

Florida Statistical Abstract, 2009, 43rd ed., Bureau of Economic and Business Research, October 2009.

Florida County Rankings, 2009, 16th ed., Bureau of Economic and Business Research, March 2010.


Holt, Lynne

"Florida's Plans to Finance New Nuclear Plants," Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, 65(4), 2009, pp.
31-40.

"Broadband and Contributions to Economic Growth: Lessons from the U.S. Experience,"
Telecommunications Policy, 33(10-11), 2009, pp. 575-581.

"Nuclear Power Expansion: Thinking About Uncertainty," The Electricity Journal, 23(5), 2010.

"A Perfect Storm in Florida: Long-term Care," report prepared for the Askew Institute,
November 2009.

"The Booming Wireless Industry: A Role for State Policies," CTIA-The Wireless Association,
PURC, November 2009.

"The Changing Electric System Architecture," PURC Working Paper, 2009.











Table 1. Publications, 2009-2010
(continued)

Irwin, Eve

Building Permit Activity in Florida, Bureau of Economic and Business Research, annual 2008
and monthly 2008-2009.

Gross and Taxable Sales Reports, Bureau of Economic and Business Research, annual 2008 and
monthly 2008-2009.


Irwin, Eve and Phoebe Wilson

Florida County Perspective, 2009, Bureau of Economic and Business Research, February 2010.


McCarty, Chris

"Homeless Women's Personal Networks: Implications for Understanding Risk Behavior,"
Human Organization, 68(2), 2009, pp. 129-140 (with Joan S. Tucker, David Kennedy, Gery
Ryan, Suzanne L. Wenzel, Daniela Golinelli, and James Zazzali).

"Longitudinal Analysis of Personal Networks. The Case of Argentinean Migrants in Spain,"
Social Networks, 32(1), 2010, pp. 91-104 (with Miranda J. Lubbers, Jose Luis Molina, Jurgen
Lerner, Ulrik Brandes, and Javier Avila).


Smith, Stanley and Scott Cody

"Number of Households and Average Household Size in Florida: April 1, 2009," Florida
Population Studies, Vol. 43, Bulletin 155, January 2010.

Florida Estimates ofPopulation 2009, Bureau of Economic and Business Research, January 2010.

"An Analysis of Annual Migration Flows in Florida, 1980-2008," Florida Focus, February 2010.


Smith, Stanley and Stefan Rayer

"Population Projections by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin for Florida and Its Counties, 2008
2030," Florida Population Studies, Vol. 42, Bulletin 154, June 2009.

"Projections of Florida Population by County, 2009-2035," Florida Population Studies, Vol. 43,
Bulletin 156, March 2010.











Table 1. Publications, 2009-2010
(continued)

Tayman, Jeff, Stanley Smith, and Stefan Rayer

"Evaluating Population Forecast Accuracy: A Regression Approach Using County Data,"
Population Research and Policy Review, forthcoming.











Table 2. Presentations at Academic/Professional Conferences, 2009-2010


Denslow, David

"The Housing Bubble," annual meeting of the Association for University Business and
Economic Research, Austin, TX, October 2009.


Dewey, Jim

"Are Alternative Route Programs Cost Effective?" Research Wednesday Speaker Series, Georgia
State University, Atlanta, GA, December 2009.


Holt, Lynne

"A Framework for Resolving Conflicts and Identifying Trade-offs: Examples from the Electricity
and Water Sectors," Utility Regulators, Energy and Water Industries, Columbia, MO,
September 2009.


McCarty, Chris

"Social Network Analysis of the Collaborative Interaction of Scientists in Academic and Non-
academic Settings," annual meeting of American Association for the Advancement of
Science, Chicago, IL, February 2009.

"Social Network Analysis of the Collaborative Interaction of Scientists in Academic and Non-
academic Settings," National Science Foundation, SciSip Conference, Washington, DC,
March 2009.

"Workshop on Social Network Analysis," University of Akron, Akron, OH, November 2009.

"Workshop on Social Network Analysis," Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, OH,
November, 2009.

"Workshop on personal network analysis," UK Social Network Conference, Manchester,
Manchester, UK, April 2010.











Table 2. Presentations at Academic/Professional Conferences, 2009-2010
(continued)


Smith, Stanley

"Applied Research: Examples and Guidelines," Bridges Program, WCBA, June 2009.

"Population Aging, Disability, and Housing Accessibility: Implications for States," annual
meeting of the Southern Demographic Association, Galveston, TX, October 2009.

"The 2010 Census: How It's Done and Why It Matters," annual meeting Association for
University Business and Economic Research, Austin, TX, October 2009.

"Evaluating Population Forecast Accuracy: A Regression Approach Using County Data,"
Biennial Conference of Applied Demography, San Antonio, TX, January 2010.











Table 3. Presentations to Business/Civic/Government Groups, 2009-2010

Denslow, David

"The National Economy," MBA Program, Gainesville, June 2009.

"Growth Management and the Housing Boom," Florida Department of Community Affairs, Orlando,
June 2009.

"The Economy of Florida," Florida Government Financial Officers Association, Orlando, September
2009.

"The Florida Economy," League of Women Voters, Gainesville, September 2009.

"Growth Management and the Housing Boom," Florida Senate Economic Development Committee,
Tallahassee, October 2009.

"The Florida Economy," University Women's Club, Gainesville, October 2009.

"The Economy of Florida," Florida Institute of Certified Public Accountants, Gainesville, October 2009.

"The Greater Jacksonville Economy," Realtors Association, St. Augustine, November 2009.

"The National Economy," UF Foundation Directors, Gainesville, November 2009.

"Economic Issues," Florida TaxWatch, Tallahassee, December 2009.

"The Florida Housing Bubble," Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council Conference, December 2009.

"The Economy of Florida," Florida Council of 100, Orlando, January 2010.

"The Housing Boom," Urban Land Institute, Miami, February 2010.

"The Tampa Bay Economy," Tampa Bay Alumni, Tampa, February 2010.

"The Florida Economy," Florida Senate, plenary session, Tallahassee, February 2010.

"The Florida Economy," Graham Center, Tallahassee, February 2010.

"The National Economy," WCBA ISOM Directors, Gainesville, April 2010.











Table 3. Presentations to Business/Civic/Government Groups, 2009-2010
(continued)


McCarty, Chris

"Workshop on Social Network Analysis," NSF Methods Camp, North Carolina, Beaufort, NC,
July 2009.

"Update on the Florida Economy," Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Atlanta, GA, March 2010.

"Workshop on Social Network Analysis," VA Research Center, Tampa, Tampa, FL, March
2010.


Smith, Stanley

"Florida's Population Growth: Where It's Been and Where It's Going," Florida Free Speech
Forum, Gainesville, December 2009.

"The 2010 Census: How It's Done and Why It Matters," Retired Faculty of Florida, Gainesville,
January 2010.

"Population Trends in Florida: Past, Present, and Future," Florida Association of Counties,
Gainesville, February 2010.











Table 4. Professional and University Service, 2009-2010

Cody, Scott

Co-chair, Population Estimates Challenge Committee, U.S. Census Bureau.
Florida Representative, Federal-State Cooperative Program for Population Estimates.

Collins, Clint

Member, Technology Administrative Committee, Network Infrastructure, UF.
President, Gator Linux Users Group.

Denslow, David

Member, City of Gainesville Police & Fire Pension Board.
Member, Collins Institute Board of Directors.
Member, Florida Council of Economic Advisors.
Informal Advisor, State Senate.
Member, Teaching Committee, Warrington College of Business Administration.
Member, three doctoral committees at UF.
Reviewer, Oxford University Press.

Dewey, Jim

Member, ACCRA Cost of Living Index Advisory Board, Council for Community and Economic
Research.
Mentor, University Scholars Program.
Teacher of the Year 2008/2009, Warrington College of Business Administration.

Floyd, Susan

Session chair, annual meeting of the Association for University Business and Economic Research.
Member, Web Advisory Committee, Association for University Business and Economic Research.
Member, UF Communications Network.

McCarty, Chris

Member, Advisory Board, UF Food and Resource Economics.
Member, Faculty Advisory Committee, UF Water Institute.
Member, 20 doctoral committees at UF.
Reviewer, American Anthropologist.











Table 4. Professional and University Service, 2009-2010
(continued)


Rayer, Stefan

Florida Representative, Federal-State Cooperative Program for Population Projections.
Florida contact person, U.S. Census Bureau demographic data releases.
Reviewer, Journal ofPlanning Education and Research.


Smith, Stanley

Member, Panel on the Design of the 2010 Census Program of Evaluations and Experiments,
National Research Council, The National Academies.
Member, Board of Trustees, Population Reference Bureau.
Member, Population Estimates Research and Methodology Committee, Federal-State
Cooperative Programs for Population Estimates and Population Projections.
Member, Committee to Evaluate Housing Unit-Based Population Estimates, U.S. Census
Bureau.
Session chair, annual meeting of the Southern Demographic Association, Galveston TX.
Session chair, Applied Demography Conference, San Antonio TX.
Member, one doctoral committee at UF.
Reviewer, Demography, Population Research and Policy Review, Disasters, and Open
Demography Journal.











Table 5. Contracts and Grants Awarded, 2009-2010*


Administrative Services Program

"Inspection Report Data Entry Module," Division of State Fire Marshal $4,400
"Accounting Services," CIBER $15,800

Subtotal $20,200


Economic Analysis Program

"2009 Florida Price Level Index," Florida Legislature $150,000
"High Value Added Green Economic Development," Sarasota County $66,312
"The Housing Bubble," FEO Grant (Dave Denslow), UF $21,000

Subtotal $237,312


Population Program

"Population Research Contract," Florida Legislature $302,874
"Count Review Consulting Services," U.S. Census Bureau $15,386

Subtotal $318,260

Survey Program

"Use, Attitudes, and Knowledge of Waterpipe Tobacco Use at the
University of Florida," Opportunity Fund (Chris McCarty), UF $15,000

Surveys for:
Agency for Health Care Administration $457,463
Alachua County Commission 1,205
American Productivity & Quality Control 725
Department of Elder Affairs 41,690
Department of Veteran Affairs Medical Center 29,975
Florida Department of Children & Families 14,974
Florida Department of Health 120,607
Florida Department of Transportation 144,385
Gainesville Regional Utilities 16,168
UF Institute for Child Health Policy 498,393
UF College of Dentistry 117,095
UF College of Fine Arts 1,000










Table 5. Contracts and Grants Awarded, 2009-2010*
(continued)


UF College of Pharmacy 5,766
UF Institute of Food & Agricultural Sciences 30,346
UF Medicaid Center 88,143
University of Illinois 2,200
University of Miami 528,403
University of South Florida 15,859
WellFlorida Council 16,500


Subtotal $2,145,897


TOTAL $2,721,669


*Note: These numbers refer to contracts and grants awarded during the 2009-2010 fiscal year.
Not all of the revenues were actually received during that fiscal year.











Table 6. Courses Taught, 2009-2010


Denslow, David


Fall 2009
Spring 2010
Spring 2010

Dewey, Jim

Fall 2009
Spring 2010


McCarty, Chris

Summer 2009
Fall 2009

Smith, Stanley


ECO 2013
ECO 2013
ECO 4934


ECP 3703
ECP 3703


PHC6716
HSA6930


Principles of Macro
Principles of Macro
Honors Urban Economics


Managerial Economics
Managerial Economics


Survey Research Methods
Social Networks Analysis


ECP3113 Population Economics


407
806
22


students
students
students


students
students


600+/-
610+/-


7 students
4 students


Spring 2010


35 students




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