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Group Title: Annual report, Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Florida
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Title: Annual report
Series Title: Annual report
Physical Description: Serial
Language: English
Creator: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, Warrington College of Business Administration, University of Florida
Publisher: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, Warrington College of Business Administration, University of Florida
Place of Publication: Gainesville, Fla.
Publication Date: 2005-2006
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Volume ID: VID00010
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Bureau of Economic and Business Research
Annual Report 2005-2006


July 2006








Bureau of Economic and Business Research
221 Matherly Hall
P.O. Box 117145
University of Florida
Gainesville, FL 32611-7145
Telephone: 352-392-0171
Fax: 352-392-4739
Web Site: www.bebr.ufl.edu


UNIVERSITY OF
SFLORIDA












Staff members, Bureau of Economic and Business Research
July 2006


Director:
Stanley Smith, Ph.D., Professor of Economics and Program Director

Operations Programs

Administrative Services:
Clint Collins, B.S., Program Director
Janet Fletcher
Pamela Middleton
Paula Ivey

Information Technology:
Clint Collins, B.S., Program Director
Martin Smith, B.S.
Jason Casiano

Information/Publications Services:
Susan Floyd, M.A., Program Director
Eve Irwin, B.A.
Phoebe Wilson, A.A.

Research Programs

Economic Analysis:
James (Jim) Dewey, Ph.D., Program Director
David Denslow, Ph.D., Professor of Economics
Babak (Bob) Lotfinia, B.A.
Sandra McGuire, M.A.

Population:
Stanley Smith, Ph.D., Professor of Economics and Program Director
Scott Cody, M.B.A.
Stefan Rayer, Ph.D.

Survey:
Chris McCarty, Ph.D., Program Director
Scott Richards, M.A.
Alicia Turner, B.S.
Armando Padilla, M.S.












Bureau of Economic and Business Research
Annual Report 2005-2006

About the BEBR

Founded in 1929, the Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR) is an applied research
center in the Warrington College of Business at the University of Florida (UF). Its primary
missions are to: 1) Collect economic and demographic data for Florida and its local areas; 2)
Conduct economic, demographic, and public policy research on topics of particular importance to
the state of Florida; and 3) Distribute data and research findings throughout the state and the
nation. BEBR seeks to conduct research that is both academically sound and directly relevant to
public and private decision makers in Florida.

BEBR plays a number of roles within the state, the college, and the university. Its research
provides decision makers with data and analyses that contribute to a deeper understanding of
Florida's rapidly changing economic and demographic climate. It provides employment and
training for numerous graduate students and more than 250 undergraduate students each year. It
generates revenues by selling data and publications and by obtaining research contracts and grants.
It creates favorable publicity for the college and the university through its publications,
presentations, reference services, and contributions to public policy. BEBR staff members teach
several courses each year in the Economics Department, and occasionally in other departments as
well. BEBR activities thus fall within the university's traditional functions of teaching, research,
and service, but the impact of those activities carries far beyond campus boundaries.

The Year in Review

BEBR had an active and productive year in 2005-2006. Staff members served as principal
investigators on 34 research contracts generating more than $2.2 million; had nine articles
accepted for publication in academic journals; published one book and 15 technical reports or
data compilations; presented 10 papers at professional conferences; served on 15 university,
professional, or civic boards or committees; made 15 presentations to business, civic, and
governmental groups throughout Florida; responded to more than 2,000 requests for information;
taught five courses in the Economics Department; and served on the graduate committees of six
students in the Economics Department and two in the Anthropology Department. These
activities reflect the breadth and scope of BEBR's contributions to teaching, research, service,
and revenue generation.

Total revenues during the 2005-2006 fiscal year were approximately $2.9 million, marking the
seventh consecutive year in which revenues topped $2.5 million. Approximately 76% of those
revenues were generated by research contracts, 19% were provided from the University of
Florida, and the remaining 5% came from the sale of data and publications (see Figure 1). As
usual, salaries and wages accounted for approximately 80% of BEBR expenditures. This report
summarizes the activities of each of BEBR's programs and documents their accomplishments for
2005-2006.













Figure 1. Estimated Revenues 2005-2006
(preliminary): $2,934,029

Sale of
Products
$150,331
5% University of
Florida
$560,833
19%0
Contracts
$2,222,865
76%


The Survey Program conducts a great deal of research for clients within the state of Florida.
During the past year, the program conducted surveys for clients such as the Institute for Child
Health Policy, the Florida Agency for Health Care Administration, the Florida Department of
Elder Affairs, the University of South Florida, the University of Miami, the Florida Public
Service Commission, and the Florida Medicaid Center. Surveys from these groups accounted for
well over half of the program's total revenue of almost $1.7 million. These research projects not
only play an important role in the development of public policy in Florida, but also make
important contributions to the production of academic research at the University of Florida and
other colleges and universities. The Survey Program also provides employment opportunities for
hundreds of UF students and other Gainesville residents and serves as an important information
resource for journalists, government agencies, and businesses throughout the state and the nation.

The program recently began conducting a set of surveys focusing on Medicaid reform in Florida.
This work, conducted in conjunction with the UF College of Public Health, is designed to
evaluate two pilot programs in Duval and Broward counties over the next five years. Medicaid
reform-particularly ways to increase coverage while reducing costs-is at the top of the public
policy agenda in many states. Given the size of Florida's Medicaid population and the radical
nature of recent programmatic changes, the research conducted in Florida will be closely
observed throughout the nation.

The Survey Program continues to expand the scope of its activities at the national and
international levels. During the past year, staff members submitted grant proposals to the
National Science Foundation and the National Institutes of Health and collaborated as
consultants on proposals submitted by researchers at the RAND Corporation, Case Western
Reserve University, the Urban Institute, and the European Union. Involvement with
organizations like these enhances the program's national and international reputation and
contributes to the development of public policy at the national level.

The Survey Program had several personnel changes during the past year. Alicia Turner was
promoted to one of two project manager positions (along with Scott Richards), Armando Padilla
was promoted to field director, and Sama Govinda left the program to take a job elsewhere.









Chris McCarty, director of the Survey Program, had four articles accepted for publication in
academic journals, presented papers at four professional conferences, and completed a number of
chapters in a book on personal network analysis. He also received one of only 18 opportunity
grants issued by UF to promote academic research.

The Population Program once again received a contract from the Florida Legislature to produce
population estimates for all cities and counties in Florida; state and county estimates of
households and average household size; and population projections by age, sex, race, and
Hispanic origin for the state and each county. This marks the 34th consecutive year the program
has been awarded this contract. In addition to producing the state's official population estimates
and projections, staff members provided data to the U.S. Census Bureau and served as Florida's
representative to the Federal-State Cooperative Program for Population Projections and the
Federal-State Cooperative Program for Population Estimates. Staff members responded to many
requests for demographic data and analysis from state and local government officials, business
leaders, university researchers, members of the media, and the general public.

In conjunction with the Survey Program, the Population Program conducted a survey of more
than 14,000 Floridians regarding the demographic impact of the 2004 hurricane season,
collecting information on evacuations prior to the hurricanes, moves caused by the hurricanes,
damages caused by the hurricanes, and plans for dealing with future hurricanes. Stanley Smith,
director of BEBR and the Population Program, co-authored two reports summarizing the results
of these surveys with Chris McCarty, director of the Survey Program; these reports were
published in Florida Focus. Smith also participated in a panel discussion of demographic
responses to natural disasters at the 2005 annual meeting of the Southern Demographic
Association. The Population Program's research on the demographic impact of hurricanes has
generated a great deal of interest from researchers and the media throughout the country.

Smith and Stefan Rayer prepared a report analyzing trends in school enrollment data in Florida
and how those data might be used in the construction of population estimates by age. Scott Cody
wrote an article for Florida Focus dealing with shifts over time in Florida's population center.
In total, staff members in the Population Program had three articles accepted for publication in
academic journals; published six technical reports related to the Florida population; presented
four papers at professional conferences; reviewed two articles for academic journals; and made
three presentations on Florida's population trends to groups around the state.

The Economic Analysis Program once again focused its research agenda on educational policy
and labor markets. Funding for research on these topics totaled almost $250,000 and was
provided by the Florida Legislature, Enterprise Florida, and the U.S. Department of Education.
The highlight of the year was the completion and publication of Tough Choices: .\iqimg
Florida's Future, a two-year collaborative effort with researchers at Florida State University.
This research project-sponsored by the LeRoy Collins Institute and funded by the DuPont
Foundation-was directed toward legislators, business leaders, and senior government officials
in Florida. Tough Choices deals with the broad policy questions and options facing Florida in
the coming decade; its publication has generated a great deal of interest in Florida's state and
local government revenue streams and the need for spending on education, healthcare,
transportation, and public safety.










The Economic Analysis Program continues to calculate and publish the Florida Price Level
Index. During the past year, staff members collaborated with Enterprise Florida to measure the
quality of Florida's job structure and to analyze employment differences between the state and
the nation. They also worked with researchers at UF's College of Education to investigate the
net benefits of alternative routes to certification for special educators. Staff members in the
Economic Analysis Program had two articles accepted for publication in academic journals;
published a book and three technical reports; presented two papers at professional conferences;
and made 12 presentations on the Florida economy to groups around the state.

In personnel matters, Dave Denslow stepped down as director of the Economic Analysis
Program but remains an active member of the program, serving as a senior research economist.
Dave was succeeded as director by Jim Dewey, a long-time staff member in the program. Bob
Lotfinia continues his work as a research analyst and has been joined by Sandra McGuire, who
will assist with data collection and analysis. The position vacated by Chifeng Dai, who accepted
a faculty position at the University of Southern Illinois, has not yet been filled; we hope to fill
that position later this summer.

The Information/Publications Services Program produced and published three annual
statistical volumes about Florida and three monthly or annual reports during the past year:
Florida Statistical Abstract, Florida County Rankings, Florida County Perspective, Housing
Starts and Permits, Building Permit Activity Reports, and Gross and Taxable Sales. It also
introduced several new publications: Florida Focus, an online series of articles dealing with
issues affecting Florida; a historical data series covering annual state and county building permits
and housing starts from 1974 to 2004; and a new Media Kit CD-ROM offered exclusively to
media outlets.

Staff members published and distributed Florida Estimates of Population 2005 and three issues
of Florida Population Studies; prepared monthly press releases related to the Florida Consumer
Confidence Index; and prepared the Florida Public Schools Annual Fire Safety Report for the
Florida State Fire Marshal's Office. They also provided editorial and publication assistance for
several reports written by the Economic Analysis Program, including Tough Choices: .\lhqmg
Florida's Future, The Quality of Florida's Job Structure, the Florida Price Level Index, and the
Florida County Retail Price and Wage Indices.

The Information/Publications Services Program began an e-mail publication announcement
service ("e-announcements") to inform subscribers about new publication releases. Sales of
publications in electronic format via e-mail through "ePubs" have increased, further reducing
printing and mailing costs. Staff members continue to work toward developing an online system
for taking and processing telephone orders and a secured Internet automated publication ordering
system. Staff members responded to more than 1,900 telephone and e-mail information requests
this year. The program continues to assist in managing the BEBR website and to coordinate all
marketing, distribution, and public relations efforts.

Susan Floyd, director of the Information/Publications Services Program, served as a member of
the UF Communications Network. She also served as a judge for the 2005 Publications Award









of Excellence presented by the Association for University Business and Economic Research.
Phoebe Wilson received a 2006 Superior Accomplishment Award from UF and the State of
Florida's 2006 Davis Productivity Award in recognition of her outstanding accomplishments
during the fiscal year.

The Administrative Services and Information Technology Programs provide the background
support that helps BEBR run smoothly. Administrative Services staff members manage the
BEBR budget, track revenues and expenditures, maintain personnel files and appointments,
handle orders and shipments of BEBR publications, provide oversight for compliance with
University rules and regulations, and perform many other essential office tasks. During the past
year, staff members prepared more than 50,000 flyers promoting BEBR programs and
publications, sent out more than 3,500 data items, and provided back-up support in answering
information calls. Staff members also continued to perform grant management services for UF's
Center for International Business Education and Research and to host and maintain the fire safety
inspection portal for the Florida State Fire Marshall's Office.

A major effort during the past year was to redesign the BEBR website and develop a new content
management system. We have made a lot of progress in these areas and the resulting
innovations will allow us to place more data online and make the website easier to navigate.
BEBR currently averages around 5,100 unique visitors to its website each month. These visitors
look at about 21,460 page views per month, for an average of 4.2 pages per person. Total visits
(including repeat visitors) average around 7,300 per month.

Clint Collins, director of the Administrative Services and Information Technology Programs,
serves on the Information Technology Administrative Committee and the Transportation,
Parking and Facilities Committee at UF and is president of Gator Linux Users Group. In
personnel matters, Balaji Krishnaprasad left the program to take a position in New Jersey and
was replaced by Martin Smith, a recent UF graduate.

BEBR currently employs 20 fulltime staff members and a large number of graduate and
undergraduate students (see Figure 2). This report provides a quick overview and summary of
our activities and accomplishments from May 1, 2005 through April 30, 2006. For additional
information of BEBR's products, services, and research activities, check out our website at
www.bebr.ufl.edu or give us a call at (352) 392-0171.






Figure 2. Organizational Chart, BEBR


Research Programs
I


I I
Population Survey
I I
Program Director Program Director
Smith McCarty



Rayer Cody Turner Richards Padilla


Economic Analysis
I


3 I
Graduate 3 Graduate
200-250 Research Student Research
Student Assistants Assistants Assistant
Assistants


Operations


Administrative Information/Publications
Services Services


Information Technology












Table 1. Publications, 2005-2006


Denslow, David

"Retiree Migration," National Tax Journal, Papers & Proceedings (with Natalia Pakhotina),
forthcoming 2006.

Denslow, David and Carol Weissert

Tough Choices: .\lhiqng Florida's Future, LeRoy Collins Institute, Tallahassee, FL, October
2005.

Dewey, Jim

"Funding Florida's Education Standards, 2009-10 and 2014-15," Chapter 6 in Tough Choices:
.\hqung Florida's Future. LeRoy Collins Institute, Tallahassee, FL. October 2005, pp.
137-173.

Dewey, Jim, Dave Denslow and Bob Lotfinia

"2004 Florida County Retail Price and Wage Indices," report prepared for the Florida
Legislature, October 2005.

"2005 Florida Price Level Index," report prepared for Florida Legislature, January 2006.

"The Quality of Florida's Job Structure," report prepared for Enterprise Florida, April 2006.

"Measuring the Quality of Florida's Job Structure," report prepared for Enterprise Florida, May
2006.

Floyd, Susan, Eve Irwin and Phoebe Wilson

Florida Statistical Abstract, 2005, 39th ed., Bureau of Economic and Business Research, January
2006.

Florida County Rankings, 2005, 12th ed., Bureau of Economic and Business Research, March
2006.

Irwin, Eve and Phoebe Wilson

Florida County Perspective, 2004, Bureau of Economic and Business Research, May 2005.











Table 1. Publications, 2005-2006
(continued)

Lotfinia, Babak

"Evidence of the Importance of Spatial Voting Models in Presidential Nominations and Elections,"
Public Choice, 123, June 2005 (with Lawrence W. Kenny).

McCarty, Christopher and Stanley Smith

"Florida's 2004 Hurricane Season: Local Effects," Florida Focus, Vol. 1, No. 3, October 2005.

McCarty Christopher, Mark House, Scott Richards and Jeffrey Harman

"Separating the Effect of Effort Versus Context on Response Rates for Telephone Interviewing,"
FieldMethods 18: 172-188, 2006.

McCarty Christopher, Jose Luis Molina, Claudia Aguilar and Laura Rota

"A Comparison of Social Network Mapping and Personal Network Visualization," Field
Methods, forthcoming.

McCarty, Chris, Peter D. Killworth, H.R. Bernard and Mark House

"The Accuracy of Small World Chains in Social Networks," Social Networks 28: 85-96, 2006.

McCarty, Christopher, Peter D. Killworth, Eugene C. Johnsen, H. Russell Bernard and
Gene A. Shelley

"Investigating the Variation of Personal Network Size Under Unknown Error Conditions,"
Sociological Methods and Research, forthcoming.

Rayer, Stefan

"Population Forecast Accuracy: Does the Choice of Summary Measure of Error Matter?"
Population Research and Development Review, forthcoming 2007.

Smith, Stanley

"Florida Population Growth: Past, Present, Future," BEBR, June 2005.




Table 1. Publications, 2005-2006
(continued)

10










Smith, Stanley and Mark House

"Snowbirds, Sunbirds and Stayers: Seasonal Migration of Elderly Adults in Florida," Journal of
Gerontology: Social Sciences, forthcoming 2006.

"Temporary Migration: A Case Study of Florida," Population Research and Policy Review,
forthcoming 2007.

Smith, Stanley and Chris McCarty

"The Demographic Impact of the 2004 Hurricane Season in Florida," Florida Focus, Vol. 1 No.
2, July 2005.

Smith, Stanley and Scott Cody

"Number of Households and Average Household Size in Florida: April 1, 2005," Florida
Population Studies, Vol. 39, Bulletin 143, January 2006.

Florida Estimates of Population, April 2005, Bureau of Economic and Business Research,
February 2006.

Smith, Stanley and Stefan Rayer

"Population Projections by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin for Florida and Its Counties,
2005-2030," Florida Population Studies, Vol. 38, Bulletin 142, July 2005.

"Projections of Florida Population by County, 2005-2030," Florida Population Studies, Vol. 39,
Bulletin 144, February 2006.












Table 2. Presentations at Academic/Professional Conferences, 2005-2006


Denslow, David

"Smoking Bans, Votes, and Restaurant Sales," Cancer Society, Chicago, May 2005.

"Economics of Training Special Education Teachers," Office of Special Education Programs,
Washington, DC, July 2005.

McCarty, Chris

"Measurement of Acculturation Using Personal Network Composition and Structure," American
Anthropological Association, Washington, DC, November 2005.

"Measurement of Acculturation Using Personal Network Composition and Structure," Society for
Anthropological Sciences, Savannah, GA, February 2006.

"Measurement of Acculturation Using Personal Network Composition and Structure,"
International Network of Social Network Analysis, Vancouver, Canada, April 2006.

"Personal Network Visualization as a Cue for Interviewing Migrants," International Network of
Social Network Analysis, Vancouver, Canada, April 2006.

Rayer, Stefan

"Stability Over Time in the Distribution of County Population Forecast Errors," Southern
Demographic Association, Oxford, MS, November 2005.

"Small Area Population Projections in Practice: Challenges and Opportunities," Southern
Demographic Association, Oxford, MS, November 2005.

Smith, Stanley

"Creative Demography: What They Probably Didn't Teach You in Grad School," Southern
Demographic Association, Oxford, MS, November 2005.

"Hurricanes and Population Estimates: Coping with a Natural and Methodological Disaster,"
Southern Demographic Association, Oxford, MS, November 2005.












Table 3. Presentations to Business/Civic/Government Groups, 2005-2006


Denslow, David

"Florida Economic Issues," Edgewater Leadership Institute, Tallahassee, July 2005.

"The Current Account Deficit," Undergraduate Students, Gainesville, September 2005.

"Florida Economic Issues," FICPA, Gainesville, October 2005.

"National Economic Issues," Gainesville Bar Association, Gainesville, October 2005.

"National Economic Issues," UF Retired Faculty, Gainesville, October 2005.

"The Orlando Economy," Orange County Bar Association, Orlando, October 2005.

"The Florida Economic Outlook," Florida Institute of CPA's, Gainesville, October 2005.

"Florida's Trends and Choices," Florida Century Commission, St. Petersburg, November 2005.

"The Lakeland Economy," Lakeland Chamber of Commerce, Lakeland, January 2006.

"Measuring Job Quality," Enterprise Florida, Board of Directors, Tallahassee, January 2006.

"The Economic Outlook," DIS Forum, Gainesville, March 2006.

"The South Florida Economic Outlook," Gator Club, Coral Gables, April 2006.

Rayer, Stefan

"Florida Population Growth: Past, Present, and Future," Enterprise Florida, Orlando, July 2005.

"From Swamps to Shopping Malls: A Century of Demographic Change in Florida," Winter
Institute in Arts Management, Palm Beach Gardens, March 2006.

Smith, Stanley

"Florida Population Growth: Aging, Immigration, Hurricanes and More," Institute for Learning
in Retirement, Gainesville, October 2005.












Table 4. Professional and University Service, 2005-2006


Cody, Scott

Florida Representative, Federal-State Cooperative Program for Population Estimates.

Collins, Clint

Member, Information Technology Administrative Committee, Network Infrastrcture, UF.
Member, Transportation, Parking and Facilities Vision Committee, UF.
President, Gator Linux Users Group.

Denslow, David

Member, Florida Governor's Council of Economic Advisors.
Member, Collins Institute Board of Directors.
Member, SUS Board of Governors Facilities Task Force.
Session Moderator & Commentator, NTA & SEA Conferences.
Chair, Compensation Committee, UF.
Member, Truman/Marshall/Rhodes Committee, UF.
Member, IR Director Search Committee, UF.
Chair, Teaching Committee, CBA.
Member, Tenure & Promotion Report Committee, Economics Department.
Trustee, City of Gainesville Firefighters & Police Officers Pension Fund.

Floyd, Susan

Member, UF Communications Network.
Judge, Publications Award of Excellence, Association for University Business and Economic
Research.

Rayer, Stefan

Florida Representative, Federal-State Cooperative Program for Population Projections.

Smith, Stanley

Member, Terrie Award Committee, Southern Demographic Association.
Session organizer and chair, annual meeting of the Southern Demographic Association,
November 2005.
Session chair, US Census Bureau Conference on Immigration Statistics, February 2006.












Table 5. Contracts and Grants Awarded, 2005-2006*


Collins, Clint

"Inspection Report Data Entry Module," Division of State Fire Marshal $14,102

Denslow, David

"2005 Florida Price Level Index," Florida Legislature $150,000

Dewey, Jim

"Evaluating Alternative Routes to Certification in Special Education," $44,953
U.S. Department of Education
"The Quality of Florida's Job Structure," Enterprise Florida $52,632

McCarty, Chris

"Development of a Social Network Measure of Acculturation
and Its Application to Immigrant Populations in South Florida," $76,099
National Science Foundation

McCarty, Chris, Scott Richards and Alicia Turner

Surveys for:
Florida Agency for Health Care Administration $191,252
Florida Department of Children & Families 15,000
Florida Public Service Commission 12,000
Florida Retail Federation 10,000
InfoTech 6,884
MacArthur Foundation 15,000
Palm Beach County Commission 5,000
Pandion Systems 1,900
RAND Corporation 5,718
St. Joseph's Women's Hospital 10,000
UF Center for Real Estate Studies 9,600
UF Center for Retailing Education & Research 950
UF Economics Department 2,450
UF College of Dentistry 261,540
UF College of Education 800
UF College of Veterinary Medicine 4,000
UF Health Services Administration 20,664
UF Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences 18,784










Table 5. Contracts and Grants Awarded, 2005-2006*
(continued)


UF Institute of Child Health Policy
UF Law School
UF Medicaid Center
UF Public Utilities Research Center
UF University Relations
U.S. Department of Veteran Affairs
University of Miami
University of South Florida
VISIT FLORIDA
Well Florida Council Hernando Co
Subtotal


647,393
3,750
136,587
3,875
1,200
4,989
44,770
126,000
12,000
18,400
$1,666,605


Smith, Stanley


"Population Research Contract," Florida Legislature


$294,573

$2,222,865


TOTAL


*Note: These data refer to contracts and grants awarded during the 2005-2006 fiscal year. Not
all of the revenues were actually received during the fiscal year.












Table 6. Courses Taught, 2005-2006


Denslow, David

Summer C 2005
Fall 2005
Spring 2006
Spring 2006


Smith, Stanley


ECO 2013
ECO 2013
ECO 4934
ECO 2013


Intro Macroeconomics
Intro Macroeconomics
Urban Economics
Intro Macroeconomics


135 students
1181 students
24 students
816 students


Spring 2006


ECP 3113 Population Economics


31 students




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