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Group Title: Annual report, Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Florida
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Title: Annual report
Series Title: Annual report
Physical Description: Serial
Language: English
Creator: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, Warrington College of Business Administration, University of Florida
Publisher: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, Warrington College of Business Administration, University of Florida
Place of Publication: Gainesville, Fla.
Publication Date: 2004-2005
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Volume ID: VID00009
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Bureau of Economic and Business Research

Annual Report 2004-2005


July 2005









Bureau of Economic and Business Research
221 Matherly Hall
P.O. Box 117145
University of Florida
Gainesville, FL 32611-7145
Telephone: 352-392-0171
Fax: 352-3924739
Web Site: www.bebr.ufl.edu


UNIVERSITY OF
FLORIDA


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Staff members, Bureau of Economic and Business Research
July 2005


Director:
Stanley Smith, Ph.D., Professor and Program Director

Economic Analysis Program:
David Denslow, Ph.D., Professor and Program Director
James (Jim) Dewey, Ph.D.
Chifeng Dai, Ph.D.
Babak (Bob) Lotfinia, B.A.

Population Program:
Stanley Smith, Ph.D., Professor and Program Director
Scott Cody, M.B.A.
Stefan Rayer, Ph.D.

Survey Program:
Chris McCarty, Ph.D., Program Director
Scott Richards, M.A.
Alicia Turner, B.S.
Sama Govinda, M.S.

Information/Publication Services Program:
Susan Floyd, M.A., Program Director
Eve Irwin, B.A.
Phoebe Wilson, A.A.

Administrative Services Program:
Clint Collins, B.S., Program Director
Janet Fletcher
Pamela Middleton
Paula Ivey

Information Technology:
Clint Collins, B.S., Program Director
Balaji Krishnaprasad, M.S.
Jason Casiano












Bureau of Economic and Business Research
Annual Report 2004-2005

About the BEBR

Founded in 1929, the Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR) is an applied research
center in the Warrington College of Business at the University of Florida (UF). Its primary
mission is to: 1) Collect economic and demographic data for Florida and its local areas; 2) Conduct
economic, demographic, and public policy research on topics of particular importance to the state
of Florida; and 3) Distribute data and research findings throughout the state and the nation. BEBR
seeks to conduct research that is both academically sound and directly relevant to public and
private decision makers in Florida.

BEBR plays a number of roles within the state, the college, and the university. Its research
provides decision makers with data and analyses that contribute to a deeper understanding of
Florida's rapidly changing economic and demographic climate. It provides employment and
training for numerous graduate students and more than 250 undergraduate students each year. It
generates revenues by selling data and publications and by obtaining research contracts and grants.
It creates favorable publicity for the college and the university through its publications,
presentations, reference services, and contributions to public policy. Its staff members teach
several courses each year in the Economics Department, and occasionally in other departments as
well. BEBR activities thus fall within the university's traditional functions of teaching, research,
and service, but the impact of those activities carries far beyond campus boundaries.

The Year in Review

BEBR had a solid year in 2004-2005, doing many of the things is has done in the past but
engaging in a number of new activities as well. Staff members were very productive, as they
served as principal investigators on 25 research contracts; published 16 articles, technical reports,
or data compilations; presented 16 papers at professional conferences; made 17 presentations to
business, civic, and governmental groups throughout the state; responded to more than 2,000
requests for information; and taught four courses in the Economics Department. Total revenue
was greater than ever before, topping $3 million for the second consecutive year; 83% of those
revenues were generated by research contracts and the sale of data and publications (see Figure
1). As usual, salaries and wages accounted for approximately 80% of BEBR expenditures.

In addition to its usual activities, the Population Program had three major accomplishments
during the past year. First, it published a report on snowb irds and other temporary residents in
Florida. There are no comprehensive data sources covering temporary residents in Florida;
consequently, there is a great deal of interest in that topic among researchers, private businesses,
public officials, and members of the media. Staff members received many phone calls and
emails from all over the country requesting further information Second, the program revised the
methodology used for making population projections by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin,
incorporating data from several sources that had previously been unavailable. This revision











Figure 1. Estimated Revenues 2004-2005
(preliminary): $3,520,915

Sale of
Products
University of
$115,213 Florida
Florida
330 $604,411
"17.200


Contracts
$2,801,291
79.5%

required a great deal of staff time but will improve the quality of the projections for years to
come. Finally, the program received a contract from the Florida Legislature to conduct research
on the demographic impact of the 2004 hurricane season in Florida. Hurricanes Charley,
Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne had a tremendous impact on the Florida population and this research
will help us determine how many people were forced out of their homes, where they went,
whether they have returned, and what they might do in the future. The answers to these
questions will be critical for informing public policy and for ensuring the quality of future
population estimates and projections.

The Population Program continues to produce the official population estimates for all cities and
counties in Florida; state and county estimates of households and average household size; and
population projections by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin for the state and each county. Staff
members published four technical reports related to the Florida population; presented four papers
at professional conferences; and reviewed five articles for academic journals. Program Director
Stanley Smith served as a member of the U.S. Census Bureau's Advisory Committee of
Professional Associations and Stefan Rayer served as chair of the Steering Committee of the
Federal-State Cooperative Program for Population Projections. Scott Cody was Florida's
representative to the Federal-State Cooperative Program for Population Estimates. Staff
members also responded to many requests for information on state and local population trends
from researchers, business leaders, government officials, and members of the media. The
Population Program's regular contract with the Florida Legislature generated $286,536 in gross
revenues during the year and the hurricane survey research contract generated an additional
$336,000.

The Economic Analysis Program also had a busy year. Previously, staff members had revised
the methodology used to construct the Florida Price Level Index (FPLI), a cost-of-living measure
used by the Florida Department of Education to allocate state funding to local school districts.
This revision was controversial because it led to a substantial shift in the distribution of state
educational funds. Lawsuits were filed by several school districts and the case was recently tried
in state court. Program Director David Denslow and staff members Jim Dewey and Bob Lotfinia
played an active role in the litigation, which was decided in favor of the Department of
Education, thereby supporting the validity of the BEBR methodology. In research related to this









project, Dr. Dewey demonstrated that the wage-based index used in the revised methodology
produces more accurate estimates of educational costs than the retail price index used previously
in calculating the FPLI. The Economic Analysis Program also introduced two new indices
related to the FPLI, the Florida County Retail Price Index and the Florida County Wage Index.

Staff members worked on a variety of other projects during the year. Working with the Center
for Personnel Studies in Special Education, they designed a set of questionnaires to collect
information regarding alternative methods for certifying special educators. Working with the
American Cancer Society, Chifeng Dai and David Denslow found that Florida's recently enacted
smoking ban increased restaurant sales by about five percent, while reducing bar sales by about
two percent. They also found that the increase in restaurant sales was stronger in counties in
which voters supported the ban more strongly. These findings were presented at the National
Conference on Tobacco and Health in Chicago. J. C. Zannis, a doctoral student working in the
Economic Analysis Program, presented a paper on local gasoline taxes co-authored with David
Denslow and Jon Hamilton at the annual meeting of the Southern Economic Association.
Professor Denslow was recently appointed to an additional two-year term as a member of the
Governor's Council of Economic Advisers. He continues to serve as a member of the Board of
Directors of the Collins Institute, chairs UF's faculty compensation committee and the College of
Business teaching committee, and serves on several other university committees. Staff members
published an article in a professional journal, reviewed two articles for such journals, presented
six papers at academic or professional conferences, and made 15 research presentations to
business, civic, and government groups throughout the state.

The Economic Analysis Program generated more than $185,000 in research contracts during the
year and another $240,180 as compensation for litigation support. In personnel moves, Chifeng
Dai will leave the program later this summer to become an assistant professor of economics at
the University of Southern Illinois. Eve Irwin, who served as research coordinator in the
program for several years before leaving for military service, has returned to BEBR but will be
working with the Information/Publication Services Program. Bob Lotfinia, who had been
working as a research coordinator on a temporary basis, was hired on a permanent basis last summer.

The Survey Program had another big year in terms of contracts and funded research. Gross
revenues topped $2 million for the first time ever. Repeat clients of the UF Survey Research
Center (UFSRC) included the UF Institute for Child Health Policy, the Florida Agency for
Health Care Administration, the Florida Department of Elder Affairs, Visit Florida, the Florida
Public Service Commission, and the Florida Medicaid Center. These repeat clients accounted
for more than half of the UFSRC's total revenue during the year. Other clients included the
Florida Department of Education, the Florida Retail Federation, the University of South Florida,
and several researchers in the UF Health Science Center. In terms of number of interviews, the
largest single project was a survey conducted for the Florida Health Insurance Survey, which
resulted in more than 16,000 completed interviews.

The Survey Program continues to be active in both applied and academic research. Staff
members have submitted grant proposals to the National Science Foundation and the National
Institutes of Health and have participated as consultants on several other proposals. They
published two articles in professional journals, presented three papers at professional









conferences, and wrote several working papers. Chris McCarty, director of the Survey Program,
signed a contract with Guilford Publishing and is writing a book on personal network analysis.

The Survey Program instituted several rew management procedures this year. An automated
monitoring system was implemented that evaluates interviewers on the basis of productivity
rather than hours spent on the job. This will create a work environment that is more flexible for
interviewers while making them more accountable for how their time is spent. A new scheduling
program is being written that will lead to a more efficient allocation of interviewers to survey
projects. Both of these changes will make the system run more smoothly and lead to
improvements in the bottom line. In a personnel change, Sama Govinda joined the program as a
full-time employee after working for several years as a graduate student.

The Information/Publication Services Program produced and published four annual statistical
volumes about Florida and four monthly or annual reports during the past year: Florida
Statistical Abstract, Florida and the Nation, Florida County Rankings, Florida County
Perspective, Housing Starts and Permits, Building Permit Activity Reports, Gross and Taxable
Sales, and The Florida Price Level Index. In addition, program staff published and distributed
Florida Estimates of Population and three issues of Florida Population Studies on behalf of the
Population Program; prepared monthly press releases for the Survey Program's Consumer
Confidence Index; and provided editorial and publication assistance on several reports written by
the Economic Analysis Program. In October 2004, the Information/Publication Services
Program received an "Excellence in Publication" award from the Association for University
Business and Economic Research (AUBER) for the Florida StatisticalAbstract.

In an ongoing effort to move toward an online ordering and publication retrieval system, the
Information/Publication Services Program implemented ePubs during the past year, offering
customers the option of receiving various BEBR publications and data via email. This move has
been well received and is helping reduce postage and handling costs. Staff members are
currently developing an online system for taking and processing telephone orders, a secured
Internet automated publication ordering system, and a subscriber online service that informs
customers about the availability of publications and special reports throughout the year. For the
second year, the Information/Publication Services Program worked with the Survey Program to
track more than 7,000 fire safety reports for the Florida State Fire Marshal's office; results were
published in Florida Public Schools Annual Fire Safety Report FY 2003-2004: Keep Florida
Safe. The program has increased its direct mail marketing efforts and continues to manage the
BEBR web site and to coordinate all marketing, distribution, and public relations efforts. In an
important outreach function, it responds to more than 2,000 information requests each year.

Susan Floyd, director of the Information/Publication Services Program, participated in a
"Success by the Numbers: Statistics for Business Development" panel discussion at the annual
meeting of the American Library Association in Orlando. She also made a presentation on
"Finding Florida Statistical Resources and Data" to a group of graduate students from UF's
Urban and Regional Planning Department. Eve Irwin rejoined the Information/Publication
Services Program after several years with the Economic Analysis Program and two years of
active military service. We are happy to have Eve back safe and sound.









The Administrative Services and Information Technology Programs provide the background
support that helps BEBR run smoothly. Administrative Services staff members manage the
BEBR budget, track revenues and expenditures, maintain personnel files and appointments,
handle orders and shipments of BEBR publications, provide oversight for compliance with
University rules and regulations, and perform many other essential office tasks. During the past
year, staff members prepared approximately 60,000 flyers promoting BEBR programs and
publications, sent out more than 3,600 data items, and provided back-up support in answering
information calls. Staff members are now scanning and archiving old paper human resource
records in Adobe acrobat format. This task has traditionally been outsourced to a private vendor;
performing it in-house will save about $1,000 per year. The Adobe format is a well known open
format that is likely to be accessible for many years, making it much easier to do searches than
was possible using the previous format.

Perhaps the greatest achievement of the Administrative Services staff this year was making the
transition to the PeopleSoft system adopted by UF last summer. The new system has a number
of shortcomings and often does not mesh well with the old system, creating many problems
when performing routine tasks such as processing personnel appointments, managing research
contracts, and paying bills. Staff members have done an excellent job of learning the new
system and dealing with the frustrations it produced. They have also taken over many of the
grant management responsibilities of the Center for International Business Education and
Research (CIBER). This has reduced the management burden for CIBER and provided
additional revenues for the BEBR. Paula Ivey joined the Administrative Services staff last
winter, replacing Charlotte Zunker.

Information Technology (IT) staff members provide technical support for all BEBR hardware
and software. They manage the network, evaluate existing technology, and provide guidance
regarding future technological developments. During the past year, they provided project
management for the Fire Safety Inspection Report web portal, designing the data base structure,
user interface, and report layout. They also trained fire inspectors in using the portal to submit
inspection reports. This project not only provides a valuable service to the State Fire Marshal's
office, but also generates revenues for the BEBR. IT staff members also spent a great deal of
time working with staff members in the Survey Program, helping them develop an employee
scheduling system and revise their data base technology. Clint Collins, director of the
Administrative Services and IT programs, serves on UF's Information Technology
Administrative Committee and its Transportation, Parking and Facilities Vision Committee.

BEBR currently has 20 full-time staff members and a large number of graduate and undergraduate
students (see Figure 2). This report provides a quick overview and summary of BEBR's activities
and output during the past year. For additional information on our products, services, and
research activities, check out our web site at www.bebr.ufl.edu or give us a call at (352) 392-
0171.





Figure 2. Organizational Chart, BEBR


Research Programs

Si
Population Survey Economic Analysis


3 2
Graduate 2 Graduate
200-250 Research Student Research
Student Assistants Assistants Assistant
Assistants


Operations


Information/Publication
Administrative Services


Information Technology












Table 1. Publications, 2004-2005


Dai, Chifeng

"The Economic Impact of Florida's Smoke-free Workplace Law," report prepared for the
American Cancer Society, April 2005.

"Delegating Management to Experts," (with Tracy Lewis), Rand Journal of Economics,
forthcoming.

Dewey, Jim

"Funding Florida's Education Standards, 2009-10 and 2014-15," report prepared for the Dupont
Foundation, January 2005.

"Improvements to the 2003 Florida Price Level Index: Background, Theory, Tests Based on the
Current Population Survey, the Relationship Between Excess Teacher Turnover in Florida's
Schools and the Market Basket Approach, and Robustness Checks," report prepared for the
Florida Legislature, April 2005.

Dewey, Jim, Dave Denslow and Bob Lotfinia

"2004 Florida Price Level Index," report prepared for the Florida Department of Education,
March 2005.

"2004 Florida County Retail Price and Wage Indices," Bureau of Economic and Business
Research, May 2005.

Floyd, Susan and Phoebe Wilson

Florida Statistical Abstract, 2004, 38th ed., Bureau of Economic and Business Research, January
2004.

Florida County Rankings, 2004, 11th ed., Bureau of Economic and Business Research, March
2005.

Florida Public Schools Annual Fire Safety Report FY 2003-2004: Keep Florida Safe, report
prepared for the Florida Division of State Fire Marshal, January 2005.

McCarty, Chris and Sama Govinda

"A Modified Elicitation of Personal Networks Using Dynamic Visualization," Connections,
forthcoming 2005.











Table 1. Publications, 2004-2005
(continued)

McCarty, Chris, Mark House, Scott Richards and Jeffrey Harman

"Separating the Effect of Effort versus Context on Response Rates for Telephone Interviewing."
FieldMethods, forthcoming 2005.

Smith, Stanley and Scott Cody

"Number of Households and Average Household Size in Florida: April 1, 2004," Florida
Population Studies, Vol. 38, No. 1, Bulletin 140, January 2005.

Florida Estimates ofPopulation, April, 2004, Bureau of Economic and Business Research,
February 2005.

Smith, Stanley and Stefan Rayer

"Population Projections by Age, Sex and Race and Hispanic Origin for Florida and Its Counties,
2003-2030," Florida Population Studies, Vol. 37, No. 3, Bulletin 139, July 2004.

"Projections of Florida Population by County 2004-2030," Florida Population Studies, Vol. 38,
No. 2, Bulletin 141, February 2005.

Wilson, Phoebe and Eve Irwin

Florida County Perspective, 2004, Bureau of Economic and Business Research, May 2005.












Table 2. Presentations at Academic/Professional Conferences, 2004-2005

Dai, Chifeng

"The Effect of Organizational Form on Cost Efficiency: Florida's Non-Emergency Medicaid
Transportation Program," Ohio University, Athens, OH, January 2005.

"Delegating Management to Experts," Southern Illinois University, Carbondale, IL, February
2005.

"Delegating Management to Experts," Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA, February 2005.

Denslow, David

"Economics of Teacher Training," Office of Special Education Programs, Washington, DC,
October 2004.

"State & Local Finance," Collins Institute, Tallahassee, December 2004.

"Globalization of the Florida Economy," University of South Florida, Tampa, February 2005.

"Restaurant Product Differentiation," National Conference on Tobacco and Health, Chicago, IL,
May 2005.

Dewey, James

"Evaluating Alternative Routes to Certification," meeting of the National Center for Alternative
Certification, Orlando, February 2005.

Floyd, Susan

"Success by the Numbers: Statistics for Business Development," panel discussion at annual
meeting of the American Library Association, Orlando, July 2004.

McCarty, Chris

"EgoNet and personal network data collection," workshop at the Universitat Autonoma de
Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain, November 2004.

"Personality and Personal Networks," Sunbelt Social Networks Conference, Redondo Beach,
CA, February 2005.

"Measurement of Acculturation Using Personal Network Composition and Structure," Society
for Applied Anthropology, Santa Fe, NM, April 2005.












Table 2. Presentations at Academic/Professional Conferences, 2004-2005
(continued)

Rayer, Stefan

"Assessing the Accuracy of Trend Extrapolation Methods for Population Projections: The Long
View," annual meeting of the Southern Demographic Association, Hilton Head, SC, October
2004.

"Evaluating County Population Projections Using a Century of Census Data," annual meeting of
the Population Association of America, Philadelphia, PA, April 2005.

Smith, Stanley

"An Analysis of Temporary Migration Flows in Florida," annual meeting of the Southern
Demographic Association, Hilton Head, SC, October 2004.

"Snowbirds, Sunbirds and Stayers: Seasonal Migration of the Elderly in Florida," annual meeting
of the Population Association of America, Philadelphia, PA, April 2005.












Table 3. Presentations to Business/Civic/Government Groups, 2004-2005

Denslow, David

Askew Institute, Gainesville, May 2004
Collins Institute, Tallahassee, May 2004
Florida School Finance Officers, Orlando, June 2004
Gainesville City Commission, Gainesville, October 2004
Florida Council of 100, Boca Raton, November 2004
FICPA, Gainesville, November 2004
UF College of Engineering, Faculty & Board of Directors, Gainesville, November 2004
UF Alumni, Gainesville, December 2004
Free Speech Forum, Gainesville, December 2004
Lakeland Business Breakfast, Lakeland, January 2005
Leadership Florida, Tallahassee, February 2005
Governor Bush & CIA, Miami, March 2005
UF-DIS Faculty & Board, Gainesville, April 2005
Economic Club, Tallahassee, April 2005
Elks Board of Directors, Umatilla, April 2005

Floyd, Susan

Urban and Regional Planning Department, UF, September 2004

McCarty, Chris

Florida Agency for Health Care Administration, Tallahassee, February 2005












Table 4. Professional and University Service, 2004-2005


Cody, Scott

Florida Representative, Federal-State Cooperative Program for Population Estimates

Collins, Clint

Member, Information Technology Administrative Committee, Network Infrastructure, UF
Member, Transportation, Parking & Facilities Vision Committee, UF

Dai, Chifeng

Reviewer, Journal ofLaw, Economics and Organization
Reviewer, Journal of Economics and Management Strategy

Denslow, David

Ad Hoc, Professional Employment Organization Task Force, BWI
Member, Collins Institute Board of Directors
Member, Florida Governor's Council of Economic Advisors
Chair, Faculty Compensation Committee, UF
Chair, College Teaching, UF
Member, Alumni Professor Selection Committee, UF
Member, Faculty Welfare, UF
Member, Faculty Welfare Policy Council, UF
Member, Rhodes-Marshall- Truman Selection Committee, UF

Floyd, Susan

Member, UF Communications Network

Krishnaprasad, Balaji

Member, UF Programmers User Group

McCarty, Christopher

Reviewer, Social Networks













Table 4. Professional and University Service, 2004-2005
(continued)

Rayer, Stefan

Chair, Steering Committee, Federal-State Cooperative Program for Population Projections
Florida Representative, Federal-State Cooperative Program for Population Projections
Reviewer, Population Research and Policy Review

Smith, Stanley

Member, Committee on Applied Demography, Population Association of America
Member, Census Advisory Committee of Professional Associations
Peer Review of Teaching, Department of Economics, UF
Reviewer, Demography
Reviewer, Population Research and Policy Review
Reviewer, Population Studies
Reviewer, Social Science Quarterly












Table 5. Contracts and Grants Awarded, 2004-2005


Collins, Clint
"Inspection Report Data Entry Module," Division of State Fire Marshal $14,500


Denslow, David
"The Economic Effect of Florida's Smoke-Free Workplace Amendment," $33,000
American Cancer Society

Dewey, Jim
"Evaluating Alternative Routes to Certification in Special Education," $50,000
US Department of Education, subaccount with Paul Sindelar,
UF College of Education
"Measuring Efforts to Diversity Florida's Economy," Enterprise Florida $52,632
"2004 Florida Price Level Index," Florida Department of Education $49,734
"Florida Price Level Index Litigation Support," @ $250 an hour $240,180

Floyd, Susan
"Florida Public Schools Annual Report, FY 2003-2004," $5,000
Division of State Fire Marshal

McCarty, Chris
Surveys for:
Florida Agency for Health Care Administration $400,906
Florida Department of Education $20,000
Florida Department of Elder Affairs $25,960
Florida Department of Transportation $82,217
Florida Legislature $292,000
Florida Public Service Commission $12,000
Florida Retail Federation $20,000
Florida State Fire Marshal $5,000
Florida State University $500
Florida Tourism $8,000
InfoTech $9,174
National Science Foundation $56,971
St. Joseph's Women's Hospital $10,000
UF College of Health Professions $19,988
UF Health Services Administration $113,539
UF Health Services Research $11,000
UF Institute for Child Health Policy $638,653
UF Institute of Higher Education $500
UF School of Forestry $2,200











Table 5. Contracts and Grants Awarded, 2004-2005
(continued)

UF Law School/MacArthur Foundation $7,500
UF Medicaid Center $206,019
University of South Florida $85,000
US Department of Veteran Affairs $4,582

Survey Subtotal $2,031,709

Smith, Stanley
"Population Research Contract," Florida Legislature $286,536
"Hurricane Research Contract," Florida Legislature $44,000


TOTAL $2,801,291












Table 6. Courses Taught, 2004-2005


Denslow, David

Summer A 2005
Summer B 2004
Fall 2004
Spring 2005


ECO 2013
ECO 2013
ECO 2013
ECO 2013


Intro Macroeconomics
Intro Macroeconomics
Intro Macroeconomics
Intro Macroeconomics


177 students
151 students
901 students
926 students




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