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Group Title: Annual report, Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Florida
Title: Annual report
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Title: Annual report
Series Title: Annual report
Physical Description: Serial
Language: English
Creator: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, Warrington College of Business Administration, University of Florida
Publisher: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, Warrington College of Business Administration, University of Florida
Place of Publication: Gainesville, Fla.
Publication Date: 2003-2004
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Bibliographic ID: UF00091101
Volume ID: VID00008
Source Institution: University of Florida
Holding Location: University of Florida
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Bureau of Economic and Business Research
Annual Report 2003-2004


August 2004









Bureau of Economic and Business Research
221 Matherly Hall
P.O. Box 117145
University of Florida
Gainesville, FL 32611-7145
Telephone: 352-392-0171
Fax: 352-392-4739
Web Site: www.bebr.ufl.edu


UNIVERSITY OF
FLORIDA


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Staff members, Bureau of Economic and Business Research
July 2004



Director:
Stanley Smith, Ph.D., Professor and Program Director

Economic Analysis Program:
David Denslow, Ph.D., Professor and Program Director
James (Jim) Dewey, Ph.D.
Chifeng Dai, Ph.D.
Babak (Bob) Lotfinia, B.A.

Population Program:
Stanley Smith, Ph.D., Professor and Program Director
Scott Cody, M.B.A.
Stefan Rayer, Ph.D.

Survey Program:
Chris McCarty, Ph.D., Program Director
Scott Richards, M.A.
Alicia Turner, B.S.

Information/Publication Services Program:
Susan Floyd, M.A., Program Director
Eve Irwin, B.A. (currently on leave of absence)
Phoebe Wilson, A.A.

Administrative Services Program:
Clint Collins, B.S., Program Director
Janet Fletcher
Pamela Middleton
Charlotte Zunker

Information Technology:
Clint Collins, B.S., Program Director
Balaji Krishnaprasad, M.S.
Jason Casiano












Bureau of Economic and Business Research
Annual Report 2003-2004


About the BEBR

Founded in 1929, the Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR) is an applied research center in
the Warrington College of Business Administration at the University of Florida (UF). Its primary mission is
to: 1) Collect, analyze, and generate economic and demographic data for Florida and its local areas; 2)
Conduct economic, demographic, and public policy research on topics of particular importance to the state
of Florida; and 3) Distribute data and research findings throughout the state and the nation. BEBR seeks to
conduct research that is both academically sound and directly relevant to public and private decision makers
in Florida.

BEBR plays a number of roles within the state, the college, and the university. Its research provides
decision makers with data and analyses that contribute to a deeper understanding of Florida's rapidly
changing economic and demographic climate. It provides employment and training for numerous graduate
students and more than 200 undergraduate students each year. It generates revenues by selling data and
publications and by obtaining research contracts and grants. It creates favorable publicity for the college
and the university through its publications, presentations, reference services, and contributions to public
policy. Its staff members teach several courses each year in the Economics Department, and occasionally in
other departments as well. BEBR activities thus fall within the university's traditional functions of teaching,
research, and service, but the impact of those activities carries far beyond campus boundaries.

The Year in Review

BEBR had another good year in 2003-2004, as staff members served as principal investigators on 32
research contracts; published 15 articles, technical reports, or data compilations; presented seven papers at
professional conferences; made 19 presentations to business, civic, and governmental groups throughout
the state; responded to more than 2,400 requests for information; and taught five courses in the
Economics Department. Total revenues topped $3.2 million, an increase of 17% from 2002-2003 (see
Figure 1). All of this increase was due to growth in revenues generated by research contracts. Expenses
also grew considerably, primarily due to growth in the operations of the Survey Program. Salaries and
wages accounted for approximately 80% of BEBR expenditures.

The Survey Program set a new funding record during the past year, as the UF Survey Research Center
(UFSRC) brought in contracts totaling almost $1.9 million. This achievement was due primarily to
contracts from regular clients such as the Florida Agency for Health Care Administration, UF Institute for
Child Health Policy, UF Medicaid Center, Florida Department of Elder Affairs, and Florida Department
of Children and Families. New clients included the University of Miami's Department of Epidemiology,
which is conducting several studies related to anti-smoking campaigns. The largest single contract
generated more than $600,000 and required almost 20,000 interviews.











Figure 1. Estimated Revenues 2003-2004
(preliminary): $3,210,013

Sale of
Products University of
$120,788 Florida
3.8% $536,077
16.70%


Contracts
$2,553,148
79.5%


The Survey Program continued to conduct monthly consumer confidence surveys of Floridians. The
results of these surveys were reported regularly through the print and broadcast media and were used by
some federal agencies to gauge the status of Florida's economy relative to that of the nation. The UFSRC
also increased its capacity to conduct focus groups and to transcribe and translate existing open-ended
interviews. It continues to be one of the largest employers of students on campus. During the past year,
the UFSRC employed 167 OPS students, 243 stadium employees, 13 college work-study students, and
five graduate students.

Survey Program staff members have become increasingly active in the development and submission of
research grant proposals. Two proposals were submitted to the National Science Foundation last year and
one was awarded. Program Director Chris McCarty had an article accepted for publication in
Connections, submitted an article to Public Opinion Quarterly, and signed a contract with Guilford
Publishing to write a book on personal network analysis. The program also made several technological
advances, including the development and implementation of new scheduling and time clock software that
reduced the cost and improved the efficiency of survey data collection.

The Economic Analysis Program received four contracts totaling $343,000 during the past year,
supporting its policy research agenda in the areas of transportation, education, health care, and general
government. Staff members conducted an assessment of the non-emergency transportation service
provided by Florida's Agency for Health Care Administration, concluded their work on alternative
special-education certification programs, and prepared the 2003 Florida Price Level Index (FPLI) and a
report on improving the FPLI and other aspects of the Florida Education Finance Program (FEFP). The
Florida Legislature incorporated the report's major recommendations into the formula used to distribute
state funds to local school districts.

Staff members in the Economic Analysis Program presented research findings to groups throughout the
state and the nation. Presentations were made to the Florida Legislature, the Econometric Society, the
Alachua county and Gainesville city commissions, and the U.S. Office of Special Education Programs.
Program Director David Denslow served on the Governor's Council of Economic Advisors and was
elected as a member of the Collins Institute's Board of Directors. He also served on UF's Teacher-of-the-
Year and Rhodes-Marshall-Truman selection committees and chaired the Faculty Senate's ad hoc
committee on faculty salaries. Chifeng Dai, a longtime associate of the Economic Analysis Program,
joined full time this year and assumed most of the responsibilities previously held by David Lenze, who
left BEBR to take a position at the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Jim Dewey was a reviewer for the
Southern Economic Journal and a member of the Florida Social Science Certification Exam Committee.










He also presented the FEFP recommendations during a three-hour session of the Florida House of
Representatives meeting as a Committee of the Whole.

The Population Program added a new product to its line-up during the past year: Estimates and
projections of the Hispanic population by age and sex for Florida and each of its counties. The Hispanic
population is a large and rapidly growing segment of Florida's population and we believe this new
product will make a significant contribution to the measurement and understanding of demographic trends
in Florida. The program continues to produce the official population estimates for all cities and counties
in Florida and population projections by age, sex, and race for the state and each county. Staff members
also worked closely with the U.S. Census Bureau to ensure the quality of federally produced population
estimates and projections. The Population Program's contract with the Florida Legislature generated
$283,000 in gross revenues during the past year.

Staff members in the Population Program authored four technical reports related to the Florida
population; published articles in the Social Science Quarterly and Population Research and Policy
Review; made four presentations to business/civic/govemment groups throughout the state; presented four
papers at professional conferences; and reviewed an article for an academic journal. Program Director
Stanley Smith served as chair of the Population Association of America's Committee on Applied
Demography, as a member of the U.S. Census Bureau's Advisory Committee of Professional
Associations, and as a member of a grant proposal review panel for the National Institutes of Health.
Stefan Rayer, who joined the program last August, served as vice-chair of the Federal-State Cooperative
Program for Population Projections. Staff members continued to respond to many requests for
information on state and local population trends from researchers, business leaders, government officials,
and members of the media.

The Information/Publications Services Program published four annual statistical volumes about
Florida and four monthly or annual serial reports during the past year: Florida Statistical Abstract,
Florida and the Nation, Florida County Rankings, Florida County Perspective, Housing Starts and
Permits, Building Permit Activity Reports, Gross and Taxable Sales, and The Florida Price Level Index.
In addition, program staff published and distributed Florida Estimates of Population and three issues of
Florida Population Studies and provided editorial and publication support to the Economic Analysis
Program in the preparation of six reports for the Florida Department of Education and the Florida
Department of Transportation. Staff members responded to more than 2,400 telephone and e-mail
information requests during the year.

In June 2003, the Florida Legislature mandated annual public reporting of fire safety inspections for the
state's 67 school districts and their local fire authorities; this covered approximately 3,500 public and
charter schools throughout the state. The Information/Publications Services Program received a contract
from the State Fire Marshall's office to develop a database and an online system for tracking more than
7,000 fire safety reports. Results were published in Florida Public Schools Annual Report FY 2002-
2003: Keep Florida Safe.

There were several personnel changes in the Information/Publications Services Program during the past
year. Dot Evans retired after working more than 32 years for BEBR; we will miss her good humor and
considerable skills. Phoebe Wilson was hired into a newly created Information Technology position; she
will be focusing on the technical aspects of publication production, marketing, and providing information
to the public. Eve Irwin will be rejoining the program when she returns from active military duty. Susan
Floyd, Director of the Information/Publications Services Program, spoke to UF Urban and Regional
Planning graduate students on "Finding Statistical Resources and Data" and is a member of the UF
Communication Network. Program staff members continued to coordinate BEBR's marketing,










distribution, and public relations efforts, manage the BEBR website, and prepare monthly press releases
for the Survey Program's Consumer Confidence Index.

The Administrative Services and Information Technology Programs provided the background support
that held BEBR together. Administrative staff members managed the BEBR budget, tracked revenues
and expenditures, maintained personnel files and appointments, handled more than 1,000 orders and
shipments of BEBR publications, provided oversight for compliance with University rules and
regulations, and performed many other essential office tasks. During the past year, staff members
prepared and mailed more than 50,000 flyers promoting BEBR programs and publications, sent out more
than 3,000 data items, processed approximately 700 employee appointments, and provided back-up
support in answering information calls.

In September 2003, Janet Rose resigned her position in BEBR to take a job in another department at UF.
Janet Fletcher and Pam Middleton assumed many of her responsibilities in the short term, giving us an
opportunity to restructure the job duties of the administrative staff. In June 2004, Charlotte Zunker was
hired to fill the vacant position. UF's transition to PeopleSoft required a tremendous amount of additional
effort from the administrative staff during the last few months, as many long-time processes and
procedures had to be fundamentally changed. The entire administrative staff did an excellent job of
dealing with the challenges created by this important transition.

Information Technology staff members purchased and installed new equipment and software, provided
technical support for all computer and network programs, revamped the BEBR website, and maintained
and upgraded the BEBR database. Clint Collins, director of both the Administrative Services and
Information Technology programs, served on UF's Information Technology Administrative Committee
and on a subcommittee dealing with network infrastructure. Balaji Krishnaprasad served on the website
advisory committee for the Association for University Business and Economic Research (AUBER) and
was a member of UF's Programmer Users Group.

BEBR currently has nineteen full-time staff members and a large number of graduate and undergraduate
students (see Figure 2). This report provides a quick overview and summary of BEBR's activities and
output during the past year. For additional information on our products, services, and research activities,
check out our web site at www.bebr.ufl.edu or give us a call at (352) 392-0171.





Figure 2. Organizational Chart, BEBR
BEBR Director
Smith


Research Programs
I


I
Population


Economic Analysis
Economic Analysis
I


Operations
Operations


Information/Publication
Administrative Services


Information Technology










Table 1. Publications, 2003-2004


Dewey, Jim, Chifeng Dai and Babak Lotfinia

"Independent Assessment: Florida's Non-Emergency Medicaid Transportation Services," report
prepared for the Florida Agency for Health Care Administration, November 2003.


Dewey, Jim, David Denslow and Bob Lotfinia

"2003 Florida Price Level Index," report prepared for the Florida Department of Education,
January 2004.

"2003 Florida Price Level Index: Supporting Information in Spreadsheet Format," report
prepared for the Florida Department of Education, January 2004.

"Research on the Florida Education Finance Program: The Florida Price Level Index, the
Sparsity Supplement, and Discretionary Mileage," report prepared for the Florida Department of
Education, March 2004.

Evans, Dorothy and Phoebe Wilson

Florida County Perspective, 2003, Bureau of Economic and Business Research, Gainesville, FL,
April 2004.

Floyd, Susan, Dorothy Evans and Phoebe Wilson

Florida Statistical Abstract, 2003, 37th ed., Bureau of Economic and Business Research,
Gainesville, FL, December 2003.

Floyd, Susan, Phoebe Wilson, and Dorothy Evans

Florida County Rankings, 2003, 10th ed., Bureau of Economic and Business Research,
Gainesville, FL, March 2004.

Florida and the Nation, 2004, 8th ed., Bureau of Economic and Business Research, Gainesville,
FL, July 2004.

McCarty, Chris and Amber Wutich

"Conceptual and Empirical Arguments for Including or Excluding Ego from Structural Analyses
of Personal Networks," Connections, forthcoming 2004.










Table 1. Publications, 2003-2004
(continued)


Smith, Stanley and June Nogle

"An Evaluation of Hispanic Population Estimates," Social Science Quarterly, forthcoming 2004.

"Population Projections by Age, Sex and Race for Florida and Its Counties, 2002-2020," Florida
Population Studies, Bulletin 136, July 2003.

Smith, Stanley and Scott Cody

"An Evaluation of Population Estimates in Florida: April 1, 2000," Population Research and
Policy Review, vol. 23, no.1, 2004.

"Number of Households and Average Household Size in Florida: April 1, 2003," Florida
Population Studies, Bulletin 137, January 2004.

Florida Estimates ofPopulation, April, 2003, Bureau of Economic and Business Research,
February, 2004.

Smith, Stanley and Stefan Rayer

"Projections of Florida Population by County, 2003-2030," Florida Population Studies, Bulletin
138, February, 2004.











Table 2. Papers Presented at Academic/Professional Conferences, 2003-2004


Dai, Chifeng

"Delegating Procurement to Experts," Econometrics Society, Providence, RI, June 2004.

McCarty, Chris

"Structurally Important People," 24th Sunbelt Social Network Conference, Portoroz, Slovenia,
May 2004.

"Visualization of Personal Networks," 24th Sunbelt Social Network Conference, Portoroz,
Slovenia, May 2004

Rayer, Stefan

"Developing Projection Assumptions in a Cohort-Component Framework," spring meeting of the
Federal-State Cooperative Program for Population Projections, Boston, MA, March 2004

Smith, Stanley

"An Evaluation of Hispanic Population Estimates for Counties in Florida," annual meeting of the
Population Association of America, Minneapolis, May 2003.

"An Evaluation of Population Projections by Age," annual meeting of the Southern Demographic
Association, Washington DC, October 2003.

"Confidence Intervals for Population Forecasts: A Case Study of Time Series Models for States,"
annual meeting of the Population Association of America, Boston, April 2004.











Table 3. Presentations to Business/Civic/Government Groups, 2003-2004


Denslow, David

Florida Institute of CPA's, Orlando, June 2003.
Institute of Internal Auditors, September 2003.
Florida Institute of CPA's, Gainesville, November 2003.
Economic Development Council, Jacksonville, January 2004.
Governor's Council of Economic Advisors, Naples, January 2004.
Board of Directors Revenue Adequacy Project, FSU, Tallahassee, January 2004.
Business Advisory Breakfast, Lakeland, February 2004.
Senate Education Appropriation Committee, Tallahassee, February 2004.
Sarasota Institute of Lifetime Learning, Venice, March 2004.
DIS Forum, Gainesville, March 2004.
Rotary Club, Gainesville, April 2004.
Florida Elks Financial Committee, Umatilla, April 2004.

Dewey, James

Florida Senate Education Appropriations Subcommittee, Tallahassee, February and April 2003.
Florida House of Representatives, Committee of the Whole, Tallahassee, April 2003.

Floyd, Susan

"Finding Statistical Resources and Data," Gainesville, UF Department of Urban and Regional
Planning, September 2003.

Smith, Stanley

Senate Comprehensive Planning Committee, Tallahassee, November 2003.
Urban Land Institute, Ft. Lauderdale, December 2003.
City Commission, Gainesville, January 2004.
Askew Forum, Gainesville, January 2004.











Table 4. Professional and University Service, 2003-2004


Collins, Clint

Member, Information Technology Administrative Committee, UF

Denslow, David

Chair, Faculty Compensation Committee, UF
Member, Minority Mentor Program, UF
Member, McNair Scholars Program, UF
Member, Rhodes-Marshall-Truman Selection Committee, UF
Member, Faculty Academic Advisory Committee, UF
Member, Shared Governance Task Force, UF
Member, Post-Secondary Education Funding Council, State of Florida

Dewey, Jim

Member, Florida Social Science Certification Exam Development Committee
Reviewer, SNithre/i I Economic Journal

Floyd, Susan

Member, UF Communication Network

Krishnaprasad, Balaji

Member, AUBER Website Advisory Committee
Member, University of Florida Programmer's User Group

Rayer, Stefan

Vice Chair, Steering Committee, Federal State Cooperative Program for Population Projections

Smith, Stanley

Member, Census Advisory Committee of Professional Associations
Member, Committee on Applied Demography, Population Association of America
Member, National Institutes of Health, Grant Proposal Review Committee
Reviewer, Population Research and Policy Review











Table 5. Contracts and Grants Awarded, 2003-2004


Denslow, David

"Florida Tax Policy Analysis," Dupont Fund, Florida State University $50,360

Dewey, Jim

"Efficient Transportation for Medicaid Recipients," $98,317
Agency for Health Care Administration
"2003 Florida Price Level Index," Florida Department of Education $69,734
"Study of the 2003 Florida Price Level Index," Florida Department $75,000
of Education
"Cost-Benefit Analysis of Alternative Routes to Certification," $100,000
US Department of Education

Floyd, Susan

"Florida Public Schools Annual Report, FY 2002-2003," $8,856
Division of State Fire Marshall

McCarty, Chris

Surveys for:
Florida Agency for Health Care Administration $491,093
Florida Department of Children & Families $172,000
Florida Department of Education $33,130
Florida Department of Elder Affairs $21,907
Florida Fish and Wildlife Commission $9,562
Florida Public Service Commission $12,000
Florida Retail Federation $20,000
Florida State Fire Marshall $1,894
Florida State University $75,000
Florida Tourism $7,000
Granger & Santry $1,800
Northside Hospital and Heart Institute $4,288
St. Joseph's Women's Hospital $4,030
St. Lucie County Health Department $3,000
UF College of Dentistry $9,170
UF College of Health Professions $111,160
UF Department of Recreation, Parks & Tourism $23,031
UF Department of Health Policy & Epidemiology $500










Table 5. Contracts and Grants Awarded, 2003-2004
(continued)


UF Institute for Child Health Policy $563,996
UF Power Center for Construction & Environment $3,000
University of Miami $195,000
University of South Florida $8,000
US Department of Health $50,000
US Department of Veteran Affairs $1,894
SW Florida Water Management District (John Whitcomb) $45,556


Survey Subtotal $1,868,011

Smith, Stanley

"Population Research Contract," Florida Legislature $282,870


TOTAL $2,553,148










Table 6. Courses Taught, 2003-2004


Dai, Chifeng

Spring 2004

Denslow, David

Summer C 2003
Fall 2003
Spring 2004

Smith, Stanley

Summer 2003


ECO 7406


ECO 2013
ECO 2013
ECO 2013


Dynamic Programming


Macro Principles
Macro Principles
Macro Principles


20 students


150 students
1503 students
787 students


ECP 3113 Population Economics


47 students




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