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Group Title: Annual report, Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Florida
Title: Annual report
Full Citation
Permanent Link: http://ufdc.ufl.edu/UF00091101/00007
 Material Information
Title: Annual report
Series Title: Annual report
Physical Description: Serial
Language: English
Creator: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, Warrington College of Business Administration, University of Florida
Publisher: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, Warrington College of Business Administration, University of Florida
Place of Publication: Gainesville, Fla.
Publication Date: 2002-2003
 Record Information
Bibliographic ID: UF00091101
Volume ID: VID00007
Source Institution: University of Florida
Holding Location: University of Florida
Rights Management: All rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.


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Full Text

Bureau of Economic and Business Research
Annual Report 2002-2003

July 2003

Bureau of Economic and Business Research
221 Matherly Hall
P.O. Box 117145
University of Florida
Gainesville, FL 32611-7145
Telephone: 352-392-0171
Fax: 352-392-4739
Web Site: www.bebr.ufl.edu



Staff members, Bureau of Economic and Business Research
July 2003

Director: Stanley Smith, Ph.D., Professor and Program Director

Economic Analysis Program:
David Denslow, Ph.D., Professor and Program Director
James (Jim) Dewey, Ph.D.
David Lenze, Ph.D.
Eve Irwin, B.A. (currently on leave of absence)
Babak Lotfinia, B.A.

Population Program:
Stanley Smith, Ph.D., Professor and Program Director
Scott Cody, M.B.A.
Stefan Rayer, Ph.D. (starting in August 2003)

Survey Program:
Chris McCarty, Ph.D., Program Director
Scott Richards, M.A.
Alicia Turner

Information/Publication Services Program:
Susan Floyd, M.A., Program Director
Dorothy Evans
Vacant (to be filled)

Administrative Services Program:
Clint Collins, B.S., Program Director
Janet Fletcher
Pamela Middleton
Janet Rose, A.A.

Information Technology:
Clint Collins, B.S., Program Director
Balaji Krishnaprasad, M.S.
Jason Casiano

Bureau of Economic and Business Research
Annual Report 2002-2003

About the BEBR

Founded in 1929, the Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR) is an applied
research center in the Warrington College of Business Administration at the University of Florida
(UF). Its primary missions are to: 1) Collect, analyze, and generate economic and demographic
data for Florida and its local areas; 2) Conduct economic, demographic, and public policy research
on topics of particular importance to the state of Florida; and 3) Distribute data and research
findings throughout the state and the nation. BEBR seeks to conduct research that is both
academically sound and directly relevant to public and private decision makers in Florida.

BEBR plays a number of roles within the state, the college, and the university. Its research
provides decision makers with data and analyses that contribute to a deeper understanding of
Florida's rapidly changing economic and demographic climate. It provides employment and
training for numerous graduate students and more than 200 undergraduate students each year. It
generates revenues by selling data and publications and by obtaining research contracts and grants.
It creates favorable publicity for the college and the university through its publications,
presentations, reference services, and contributions to public policy. Its staff members teach
several courses each year in the Economics Department, and occasionally in other departments as
well. BEBR activities thus fall within the university's traditional functions of teaching, research,
and service, but the impact of those activities carries far beyond campus boundaries.

The Year in Review

BEBR experienced several major program and personnel changes in 2002-2003. Perhaps the
most significant was the loss of the Forecasting Program, an important part of BEBR since the
mid-1970s. This program ceased operation due to the cancellation of its research contract with
the Florida Agency for Workforce Innovation. Carol West, the program's director since 1984,
shifted to the Economics Department and will continue to serve as Director of UF's Center for
International Business Education Research. David Lenze, the program's associate director,
shifted to BEBR's Economic Analysis Program. Other BEBR personnel changes included
Georgia Baldwin moving to Maryland and June Nogle taking a position with UF's Institute for
Child Health Policy. Eve Irwin, a member of the air force reserves, was called up for active
military duty but is expected to return sometime next year. Jason Casiano joined BEBR as a
network administrator in May, Stefan Rayer will join the Population Program in August, and a
search is currently underway to fill a vacant position in the Information/Publication Services
Program. As always, BEBR's strength lies in its well-trained and dedicated employees.

Figure 1. Estimated Revenues 2002-2003
(preliminary): $2,726,871
Sale of
o6 University of
Contracts 25%

On a sad note, February marked the unexpected retirement due to health reasons of long-time
staff member Carol Griffen. Carol worked in the Information/Publication Services Program for
15 years, answering information calls, marketing publications, providing graphic design and
editorial services, and coordinating printing contracts with local businesses. She was the person
most responsible for providing information about BEBR data, publications, and services to the
public. We will miss her and wish her well.

Despite the disruption and uncertainty created by these changes, BEBR maintained a high
level of productivity in 2002-2003. Staff members served as principle investigators on 33
research contracts; published 20 articles, technical reports, books, or book chapters; presented
nine papers at professional conferences; made 18 presentations to business/civic/government
groups throughout the state; held leadership positions in a variety of professional and university
service organizations; reviewed books and articles for publishing companies and academic
journals; and taught three courses in the Economics Department. They responded to more than
500 information requests each month from businesses, government agencies, the media, and
members of the general public. BEBR continues to be a major source of data and analysis
regarding business, economic, and demographic trends and conditions in Florida.

Total revenues for 2002-2003 were $2,726,871, a decline of more than $500,000 from 2001-
2002 but still the third highest in BEBR's history. Most of this decline was caused by reductions
in revenues from research contracts. We believe these reductions were caused primarily by
deteriorating economic conditions and the impact of state budgetary problems on research
funding opportunities. Research contracts accounted for 69% of BEBR's total revenue for the
year, the sale of data and publications accounted for 6%, and university support accounted for
25% (see Figure 1). Expenditures also declined, reflecting the reduced costs associated with
reductions in research contracts. About 80% of expenditures were for wages and salaries
(including a large amount paid to supervisors and interviewers working part-time in the Survey
Program), with the remainder going for computer equipment, software licenses, telephone bills,
travel, postage, office supplies, and other expenses.

The Economic Analysis Program received four research contracts totaling $238,000 last
year, supporting its public policy research agenda in the fields of transportation, education, and

health care. Staff members produced the Florida Price Level Index (FPLI); completed studies of
surface freight transportation, 2-1-1 call centers, and transportation trends and conditions; and
began a study of alternative special education training programs. Other activities included the
publication of the final edition of the Florida Long-Term Economic Forecast, the preparation of
a set of state-level private pension income estimates, and the completion of several short policy
analyses for the Department of Transportation, covering aviation in Florida, pedestrian safety,
road adequacy, and the economics of intermodal transportation infrastructure financing.

Staff members in the Economic Analysis Program presented research findings to groups
throughout the state, including the Florida Legislature, the Governor's High Tech Summit, the
Florida Institute of Certified Public Accountants, the North Central Florida Builders Association,
the Orlando County Board of Education, and the Marion County Public Policy Institute. The
program director, David Denslow, served on the university's teacher of the year and the Rhodes-
Marshall-Truman selection committees. He also served on the Faculty Academic Advisory
Committee, Shared Governance Task Force, and the Post-Secondary Education Funding
Council. Jim Dewey was a reviewer for the i,,inhei n Economic Journal and a member of the
Florida Social Science Certification Examination Committee. David Lenze was a reviewer for
the Review of Regional Studies. In the coming year the Economic Analysis Program will
complete its work on special education, update the FPLI, and begin projects related to the
evaluation of transportation services provided to Medicaid recipients, the development of a wage
index to complement the FPLI, the investigation of the consequences of sparsity on school costs,
the measurement of the fiscal impact of new development, and the evaluation of local option
gasoline taxes.

The Population Program produced population estimates for all cities and counties in Florida
and population projections by age, sex, and race for the state and each county. These estimates
and projections are used for a wide variety of purposes, including the distribution of state
revenue-sharing funds to all cities and counties in the state; determining the need for new
schools, roads, electric power plants, and other facilities; targeting government programs;
choosing sites for business expansion; and developing comprehensive plans for cities and
counties. Staff members used results from the 2000 Census to evaluate previous population
estimates and projections; they also developed and tested a methodology for estimating and
projecting the Hispanic population of Florida and each of its counties. The Population Program
continues to work closely with the U.S. Census Bureau to ensure the quality of federally
produced population estimates and projections.

Staff members in the Population Program authored four technical reports related to the
Florida population; wrote chapters for the Methods and Materials of Demography and the
Handbook of Population; published an article in Demography; made three presentations to
business/civic/government groups throughout the state; presented two papers at professional
conferences; and reviewed articles for two academic journals and a scholarly book. Stanley
Smith served as chair of the Population Association of America's Committee on Applied
Demography and as a member of the U.S. Census Bureau Advisory Committee. June Nogle
served as Secretary/Treasurer of the Southern Demographic Association, chair of the Federal-
State Cooperative Program for Population Estimates, co-editor of the Applied Demography
newsletter, and as a member of two UF committees.

The Survey Program completed its fourth straight year with gross revenues exceeding one
million dollars. Clients included numerous state agencies, city and county governments, water
management districts, private businesses, and a variety of colleges, centers, and academic
departments at UF and other universities. The program also began a series of multi-year surveys
for the State of Texas and a series of contracts for the U.S. Forest Service. These contracts
demonstrate the program's growing national reputation as a highly effective survey research
center. Chris McCarty, director of the Survey Program and the UF Survey Research Center,
published an encyclopedia chapter and three articles in academic journals this year, and has
submitted several other papers to academic journals. He also presented or co-authored seven
presentations at professional conferences.

The UF Survey Research Center recently expanded and renovated its interviewing and office
space in the Seagle Building. It now has 75 CATI stations and a separate room for conducting
focus groups. Staff members conducted several focus groups during the year and have
established a team of transcribers to accommodate this type of research. In a recently completed
project in Texas, staff members conducted approximately 150 face-to-face interviews and
developed a protocol manual for carrying out such projects. The program plans to expand the
scope of its work in these areas, while maintaining high standards in telephone and mail survey
methods. The program also made several improvements in lab management during the year,
including the installation of new scheduling and time clock programs.

The Information/Publication Services Program published four annual statistical volumes
and four monthly or annual serial reports during the past year: Florida and the Nation, Florida
Statistical Abstract, Florida County Rankings, Florida County Perspectives, Housing Starts and
Permits, Building Permit Activity Reports, Gross and Taxable Sales, and The Florida Price Level
Index. New chapters comparing Florida to other nations were added to the Florida Statistical
Abstract and Florida County Rankings in response to the university's growing emphasis on
international data and programs.

Information/Publication Services staff members responded to thousands of telephone and
email requests for demographic and economic information throughout the year, and assisted the
Economic Analysis Program in the preparation of four Florida Department of Transportation
reports. They also continued to provide editorial and publication support to the Population and
Survey Programs. Susan Floyd, director of the Information/Publication Services Program,
presented a paper at the annual convention of the Florida Communication Association. She and
Carol Griffen served as members of the UF Communication Network.

The Administrative Services and Information Technology Programs provided the
background support that held BEBR together. Administrative services staff members managed
the BEBR budget, tracked revenues and expenditures, maintained personnel files and
appointments, handled orders and shipments of BEBR publications, provided oversight for
compliance with University rules and regulations, and performed many other essential office
tasks. They prepared and mailed approximately 78,000 flyers promoting BEBR programs and
publications and provided back-up support in answering information calls.

Information Technology staff members purchased and installed new equipment and software,
provided technical support for all computer and network programs, revamped the BEBR website,
and maintained and upgraded the BEBR database. Clint Collins, director of both the
Administrative Services and Information Technology programs, served on UF's Information
Technology Administrative Committee and on a subcommittee dealing with network

The growth of the Survey Program created additional work for both the Administrative
Services and Information Technology programs, requiring the processing of a larger number of
employee appointments and payroll records and the outfitting of new survey stations. Staff
members did an excellent job responding to these demands and finding new ways to make BEBR
operate more smoothly and efficiently.

BEBR employs nineteen full-time staff members and a large number of graduate and
undergraduate students (see Figure 2). This report provides a quick overview and summary of
BEBR's activities and output during the past year. For additional information on our products,
services, and research activities, check out our web site at www.bebr.ufl.edu or give us a call at
(352) 392-0171.

Figure 2. Organizational Chart, BEBR
BEBR Director

Research Programs



Program Director Program Director
Smith McCarty

Prayer Cody Turner Richards

Economic Analysis




Information Technology

2 Student

2 Student

Table 1. Publications, 2002-2003

Dewey, Jim and David Denslow

"Report on Trends and Conditions Research: The Magnitude of Population Adjustment to
Transportation Investments and its Implications for Transportation Planning in Florida,"
report prepared for the Florida Department of Transportation, February 2003.

Dewey, Jim, David Denslow, and Eve Irwin

"2002 Florida Price Level Index," report prepared for the Florida Department of Education,
January 2002.

"2002 Florida Price Level Index: Supporting Information in Spreadsheet Format," report
prepared for the Florida Department of Education, January 2002.

Dewey, Jim, David Denslow, and David Lenze

"The Response of Railroad and Truck Freight Shipments to Optimal Excess Capacity
Subsidies and Externality Taxes: An Empirical Study of Florida's Surface Freight
Transportation Market," report prepared for the Florida Department of Transportation,
September 2002.

Evans, Dorothy

Florida County Perspective, 2002. BEBR, University of Florida, February 2003.

Floyd, Susan

Florida StatisticalAbstract, 2002, 36th ed., BEBR, University of Florida, October 2002.

Floyd, Susan, Carol Griffin, and Dorothy Evans

Florida County Rankings, 2002, 9th ed., BEBR, University of Florida, March 2003.

Lenze, David

The Florida Long-Term Economic Forecast Vol. 1, State and MSAs, BEBR, University of
Florida, August 2002.

The Florida Long-Term Economic Forecast Vol. 2, State and Counties, BEBR, University
of Florida, August 2002.

Table 1. Publications, 2002-2003

McCarty, Chris

"Social Network Analysis," in Karen Christensen and David Levinson (eds).
Encyclopedia of Community: From the Village to the Virtual World. Thousand Oaks,
CA: Sage Publications, 2003 (with H. Russell Bernard).

"Are Survey-based Economic Indicators for Africa Valid? The Case of Consumer
Confidence in Ghana," Social Indicators Research, forthcoming 2003 (with John

"Two Interpretations of Reports of Knowledge of Subpopulation Sizes," Social Networks,
forthcoming 2003 (with Peter D. Killworth, H. Russell Bernard, Eugene Johnsen, John
Domini, and Gene A. Shelley).

"Some Issues in the Calculation of Response Rates," Public Opinion Quarterly,
forthcoming 2003.

Smith, Stanley

"An Evaluation of Population Projections by Age," Demography, forthcoming 2003
(with Jeff Tayman).

"Population Projections," in David A. Swanson and Jacob S Siegel (eds.). The Methods
of Materials and Demography. San Diego: Academic Press, 2003 (with M.V. George,
David Swanson, and Jeff Tayman).

"Small-Area and Business Demography," in Dudley Poston and Michael Micklin (eds).
Handbook ofPopulation. New York: Kluwer Academic/Plenum Publishers, forthcoming
2004 (with Peter Morrison).

Smith, Stanley and Scott Cody

"Number of Households and Average Household Size in Florida: April 1, 2002," Florida
Population Studies, Bulletin 135, BEBR, University of Florida, February 2003.

Table 1. Publications, 2002-2003

Smith, Stanley and June Nogle

"Projections of Florida Population by County, 2002-2030," Florida Population Studies,
Bulletin 134, BEBR, University of Florida, January 2003.

"Population Projections by Age, Sex and Race for Florida and Its Counties, 2002-2025,"
Florida Population Studies, Bulletin 136, BEBR, University of Florida, April 2003.

Smith, Stanley, June Nogle, and Scott Cody

Florida Estimates ofPopulation 2002. BEBR, University of Florida, January 2003.

Table 2. Papers Presented at Academic/Professional Conferences, 2002-2003

McCarty, Chris

"Egocentric Network Research Tool," annual meeting of the International Social
Network Conference, Quintana Roo, Mexico, February 2003.

"A Personal Network Method for Measuring Race and Ethnicity," annual meeting of
the International Social Network Conference, Quintana Roo, Mexico, February 2003
(with Amber Wutich).

"Personality and Social Network Structure," annual meeting of the International
Social Network Conference, Quintana Roo, Mexico, February 2003 (with Rosalyn

"Comparing Social Network Size and Content in Mexico and the US," annual
meeting of the International Social Network Conference, Quintana Roo, Mexico,
February 2003 (with H.R. Bernard, Peter Killworth, Gene Shelley, and Eugene

"Attempting to Quantify Transmission and Barrier Errors in Scale-up Methods,"
annual meeting of the International Social Network Conference, Quintana Roo,
Mexico, February 2003 (with Peter Killworth, H.R. Bernard, Gene Shelley, and
Eugene Johnsen).

"Las Redes Personales como Programa de Investigacion: Muestreo, Variacion
Cultural y Estructuras Meso," annual meeting of the International Social Network
Conference, Quintana Roo, Mexico, February 2003 (with Jose Luis Molina).

"Egocentric Network Analysis," RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, CA, February

Smith, Stanley

"An Evaluation of State Population Projections by Age," annual meeting of the
Population Association of America, Atlanta, GA, May 2002 (with Jeff Tayman).

"An Evaluation of Population Estimates in Florida: April 1, 2000," annual meeting of the
Southern Demographic Association, Austin, TX, October 2002 (with Scott Cody).

Table 3. Presentations to Business/Civic/Government Groups, 2002-2003

Denslow, David

"Florida Labor Market Development," IFAS, University of Florida, Gainesville,
September 2002.

"Orlando's Labor Market & Higher Education in Florida," UF on the Road, Business and
Political Leaders, Orlando, October 2002.

"Economic Outlook," UF Alumni, Gainesville, October 2002.

"Higher Education Funding," Free Speech Forum, Gainesville, November 2002.

"Economic Outlook," Ocala Kiwanis Club, Ocala, November 2002.

"Economic Outlook," Accounting Conference, Gainesville, November 2002.

"Florida Economic Issues," Florida Senate, Tallahassee, November 2002.

"Economic Outlook," Retired Faculty, Gainesville, December 2002.

"Economic Outlook," Current Affairs Society, Sarasota, January 2003.

"Economic Outlook," North Central Florida Builders Association, Gainesville, January

"District Compensatory Differentials," Senate Budget Committee, Subcommittee on
Education, Tallahassee, March 2003.

"Economic Outlook," DIS Forum, Gainesville, Spring 2003.

Dewey, Jim

"Growth and the Cost of Living," Marion County Public Policy Institute, Ocala, October

Floyd, Susan

"Mini-rallies at Super Wal-Mart: Measuring the effectiveness of Janet Reno's 'Red
Truck Tour' in the Florida 2002 gubernatorial race," 72nd Annual Convention of the
Florida Communication Association, St. Petersburg, October 2002 (with K. Trammell,
and A. Williams).

Table 3. Presentations to Business/Civic/Government Groups, 2002-2003

Lenze, David

"Florida Long-Term Economic Forecasting Methodology," Orlando County Board of
Education, Orlando, January 2003.

Nogle, June

"BEBR and US Census Data," Southeast Florida Transportation Group, Ft. Lauderdale,
November 2002 (with Mike Brown).

"Overview of Demographic Issues in Florida and Miami-Dade County," National
Educational Fellows Meeting, Miami, December 2002.

Smith, Stanley

"Florida Population Growth: Past, Present, Future," Gainesville Rotary Club, October

Table 4. Professional and University Service, 2002-2003

Collins, Clint

Member, Information Technology Administrative Committee, UF

Denslow, David

Member, Minority Mentor Program, UF
Member, McNair Scholars Program, UF
Member, Rhodes-Marshall-Truman Selection Committee, UF
Member, Faculty Academic Advisory Committee, UF
Member, Shared Governance Task Force, UF
Member, Post-Secondary Education Funding Council, State of Florida

Dewey, Jim

Member, Social Science Certification Examination Committee, State of Florida
Reviewer for Snin,,lhei Economic Journal

Floyd, Susan

Member, UF Communication Network

Lenze, David

Reviewer for Review of Regional Studies

Nogle, June

Secretary-Treasurer, Southern Demographic Association
Newsletter Co-Editor, Applied Demography
Board member, Academic and Professional Assembly, UF
Board member, Association for Academic Women, UF

Smith, Stanley

Chair, Committee on Applied Demography, Population Association of America (PAA)
Chair, PAA delegation to the Census Advisory Committee of Professional Associations,
U.S. Census Bureau
Reviewer for Demography, Population Research and Policy Review, and Kluwer
Academic/Plenum Publishers

Table 5. Contracts and Grants Awarded, 2002-2003

Denslow, David

"211 Call Centers," Agency for Health Care Administration $30,000
"Demographic Economic Trends," Florida Dept of Transportation $49,288
"Freight Movement Transportation," Florida Department of Transportation $78,776
"Florida Price Level Index," Florida Department of Education $79,734

McCarty, Chris

"Assessment of the Relationship Between Egocentric Network Structure $21,000
and Depression Across Gender, Age and Ethnic Groups," UF Opportunity

Surveys for:
Alachua-Bradford Workforce Agency 700
City of Delray Beach/ MacArthur Foundation 6,540
Florida Agency for Health Care Administration 225,644
Florida Department of Education 30,392
Florida Department of Children & Families 12,750
Florida Department of Elder Affairs 40,000
Florida Department of Health 3,000
Florida Department of Transportation 31,237
Florida Gulf Coast University 5,754
Florida Medicaid Center 34,000
Florida Public Service Commission 12,000
Florida Retail Federation 15,000
FSU/Florida Biomedical Research Foundation 28,000
Rockwell Firstpoint/Foley and Lardner 3,000
Seminole County Florida 3,000
Southwest Florida Water Management District 23,375
UF Center for Construction and Environment 6,000
UF College of Dentistry 73,244
UF College of Education 5,000
UF College of Journalism 1,000
UF Department of Wildlife Ecology and Conservation 6,000
UF Department of Forestry/US Forest Service 20,000
UF Institute for Child Health Policy 347,415
UF Institute for Child Health Policy/State of Texas 364,861
UM/Minnesota Department of Health 36,000
Visit Florida 9,000
Warrington College of Business Administration 11,440

Survey Subtotal $1,354,352

Table 5. Contracts and Grants Awarded, 2002-2003

Smith, Stanley

"Population Research Contract," Florida Legislature $273,684

TOTAL $1,886,834

Table 6. Courses Taught, 2002-2003

Denslow, David

Summer 2002
Fall 2002
Spring 2003

ECO 2013
ECO 2013
ECO 2013

Macro Principles
Macro Principles
Macro Principles

150 students
1503 students
787 students

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