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Group Title: Annual report, Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Florida
Title: Annual report
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Title: Annual report
Series Title: Annual report
Physical Description: Serial
Language: English
Creator: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, Warrington College of Business Administration, University of Florida
Publisher: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, Warrington College of Business Administration, University of Florida
Place of Publication: Gainesville, Fla.
Publication Date: 2001-2002
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Bibliographic ID: UF00091101
Volume ID: VID00006
Source Institution: University of Florida
Holding Location: University of Florida
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Bureau of Economic and Business Research
Annual Report 2001-2002


July 2002









Bureau of Economic and Business Research
221 Matherly Hall
P.O. Box 117145
University of Florida
Gainesville, FL 32611-7145
Telephone: 352-392-0171
Fax: 352-392-4739
Web Site: www.bebr.ufl.edu


UNIVERSITY OF
FLORIDA


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Staff members, Bureau of Economic and Business Research
July 2002



Director: Stanley K. Smith, Ph.D., Professor and Program Director

Forecasting Program:
Carol T. West, Ph.D., Professor and Program Director
David G. Lenze, Ph.D., Associate Program Director

Policy Studies Program:
David A. Denslow, Ph.D., Professor and Program Director
James F. (Jim) Dewey, Ph.D.
Eve Irwin, B.A.

Population Program:
Stanley K. Smith, Ph.D., Professor and Program Director
Scott Cody, M.B.A.
June Nogle, Ph.D.

Survey Program:
Chris McCarty, Ph.D., Program Director
Scott Richards, M.A.
Alicia Turner

Information/Publication Services:
Susan Floyd, M.A., Program Director
Carol Griffen, B.S.
Dorothy Evans

Administrative Services and Information Technology:
Clinton B. Collins, B.S., Program Director
Georgia S. Baldwin, B.S.
Balaji Krishnaprasad, M.S.
Janet Fletcher
Pamela Middleton
Janet Rose, A.A.











Bureau of Economic and Business Research
Annual Report 2001-2002


About the BEBR

Founded in 1929, the Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR) is an applied
research center in the Warrington College of Business Administration at the University of Florida.
Its primary missions are to: 1) Collect, analyze, and generate economic and demographic data for
Florida and its local areas; 2) Conduct economic, demographic, and public policy research on
topics of particular importance to the state of Florida; and 3) Distribute data and research findings
throughout the state and the nation. BEBR seeks to conduct research that is both academically
sound and directly relevant to public and private decision makers in Florida.

BEBR plays a number of roles within the College and the University. Its research
contributes to a deeper understanding of Florida's rapidly changing economic and demographic
climate. It provides employment and training for numerous graduate students and more than 200
undergraduate students each year. It generates revenues by selling data and publications and by
obtaining research contracts and grants. It creates favorable publicity for the College and
University through its publications, presentations, and reference services. Its staff members teach
several courses each year in the Economics Department, and occasionally in other departments as
well. BEBR activities fall within the University's traditional functions of teaching, research, and
service, but the impact of those activities carries far beyond campus boundaries.


The Year in Review

BEBR had another good year in 2001-2002. Staff members served as principle
investigators on 25 research contracts; published 22 articles, technical reports, books, or book
chapters; presented nine papers at professional conferences; made 13 presentations to
business/civic/government groups throughout the state; held leadership positions in a variety of
professional organizations; and taught four courses in the Economics Department and one in the
Anthropology Department. They responded to more than 600 information requests each month
from businesses, government agencies, the media, and members of the general public. BEBR
continues to be a major source of data and analysis regarding business, economic, and
demographic conditions and trends in Florida.

Total revenues for 2001-2002 were $3,250,000, the most in BEBR history. This increase
was caused primarily by additional revenues from research contracts, which rose to over $2.3
million. Research contracts accounted for 72% of the BEBR's total revenue for the year, the sale
of data and publications accounted for 6%, and University salaries accounted for 22% (see
Figure 1). Expenditures also increased considerably, reflecting the higher costs associated with
the additional research contracts. About 80% of expenditures were for wages and salaries












Figure 1. Estimated Revenues 2001-2002
(preliminary): $3,250,000

Sale of
Products
$187,171
University of
6%
$721,000
220
Contracts
$2,341,829
72%




(including almost $1 million for supervisors and interviewers working part-time for the Survey
Program), with the remainder going for computer equipment, software licenses, telephone bills,
travel, postage, office supplies, and other expenses.

The Forecasting Program completed the fourth year of a cooperative arrangement with
the Agency for Workforce Innovation. This arrangement eliminates overlap in economic
forecasts and provides increased breadth and depth for long-term forecasts of Florida and its 20
metropolitan areas and 67 counties. During the year, the Forecasting Program incorporated new
regional data from the 2000 census into its models and databases, and revised data series for the
1990s to be consistent with the new benchmarks. The events of September 11, 2001 had a
substantial short-term impact on the economy of Florida, but do not appear to have affected the
long-term outlook for the state.

Scholarly research from the Forecasting Program was published in the Journal of
Agriculture and Applied Economics and presented at several professional conferences. The
Program's forecasts were presented at public forums throughout the state. Carol West served on
the Governor's Council of Economic Advisors, the Expert Review Board on Mitigating the Cost
of Natural Disasters, and the editorial boards of two scholarly journals. She was awarded the
2001 Walter Isard Award for Distinguished Scholarly Achievement in Regional Science. David
Lenze updated an economic impact study for NASA and collaborated with the Policy Studies
Program on a study of the optimal use of Florida's railways and highways.

The Forecasting Program has been producing forecasts and economic analyses for
Florida and its local areas since the mid-1970s. Unfortunately, the contract funding the program
was not renewed for the coming year. As a result, the program will cease operation upon
completion of the current set of forecasts. Carol West (who is currently on sabbatical) will
continue her work as Director of UF's Center for International Business Education Research and
as a professor in the Economics Department; she will work with BEBR on projects of mutual
interest. David Lenze will shift to the Policy Studies Program, where he will work on a variety of
economic and public policy projects. The Forecasting Program made significant contributions to









economic research and analysis over the years, but the coming reorganization opens up several
exciting opportunities for pursuing new lines of research.

The Policy Studies Program received two research contracts from the Florida
Department of Transportation and one from the Florida Department of Education during the past
year. Its research focused on spatial price indexes, transportation, and urban form. The price
indexes are used in the State of Florida's formula for distributing state funds among school
districts. Staff members produced reports on Florida Transportation Trends and Conditions and
The 2001 Florida Price Level Index. They made a number of presentations on this research and
general economic trends in Florida to a variety of business/civic/government groups throughout
the state. David Denslow served as a member of Florida's Post-Secondary Education Finance
Task Force and the Trends and Conditions Group of the Florida Department of Transportation.

The Population Program incorporated the results of the 2000 census into its new
population estimates and projections. Staff members produced population estimates for all cities
and counties in Florida and population projections by age, sex, and race for the state and each
county. They also used 2000 census results to evaluate previous population estimates and
projections. The 2000 estimates were the most accurate BEBR has ever produced, with errors
that averaged 4% for counties and 10% for subcounty areas. BEBR's estimates for cities and
counties in Florida were found to be considerably more accurate than those produced by the U.S.
Census Bureau. The Population Program also developed and evaluated a methodology for
estimating the Hispanic population of Florida and each of its counties.

Staff members in the Population Program authored four technical reports on the Florida
population, co-authored a book on foreign immigration in Florida, wrote two short articles for
the International Encyclopedia of Population, published articles in Demography and Applied
Demography, made six presentations to business/civic/govemment groups throughout the state,
presented four papers at professional conferences, and refereed an article for a scholarly journal.
Stan Smith served as chair of the Population Association of America's Committee on Applied
Demography and as a member of the U.S. Census Bureau Advisory Committee. June Nogle
served as Secretary/Treasurer of the Southern Demographic Association, chair of the Federal-
State Cooperative Program for Population Estimates, and co-editor of the Applied Demography
newsletter.

The Survey Program completed the relocation of its facilities from Matherly Hall to the
Seagle Building in downtown Gainesville. This move was made necessary by the rapid growth
of the program during the last few years and the lack of available space on campus. Now called
the UF Survey Research Center, this facility has 70 Computer Aided Telephony Integration
(CATI) stations, a new file server, and a new telephone system. One of the main features of the
new telephone system is the ability to record up to four conversations simultaneously; this has
helped ensure quality control and provided clients with the opportunity to hear their questions
being asked. The Survey Program also made several changes to its operation and management
procedures in order to keep pace with the expansion of the infrastructure. Chris McCarty
published an article in the Journal of Social Structure, made presentations at two professional
conferences, and refereed articles for two scholarly journals.









The Survey Program conducted 19 funded surveys during the past year, generating more
than $1.6 million in gross revenues. Clients included faculty members at UF and other
universities, government agencies in Florida and other states, and several private enterprises.
Healthcare issues such as insurance coverage and satisfaction with healthcare programs were
once again a major research focus. Among other uses, survey results were used by state officials
as a basis for allocating funds to children's healthcare programs in Florida. The Survey Program
provided employment and training in interviewing, management, and data analysis to several
graduate students and more than 200 undergraduate students.

The Information and Publications Services Program published four annual statistical
volumes and five monthly or annual serial reports during the past year: Florida and the Nation,
Florida Statistical Abstract, Florida County Rankings, Florida County Perspectives, Housing
Starts and Permits, Building Permit Activity Reports, Gross and Taxable Sales, Economic
Impact of NASA on Central Florida, and The Florida Price Level Index. Additionally, it
published a new report on immigration, Facts About Immigration and Asking "Six Big
Questions" for Florida and Miami-Dade County. Responding to the University's call for a more
global UF, the program added a new "International comparisons" chapter to Florida and the
Nation comparing Florida to the United States and other countries. Similar chapters are planned
for both the Florida Statistical Abstract and Florida County Rankings in 2002. Staff members
also provided editorial and publication support to other BEBR programs throughout the year.

Staff members in the Information and Publications Services Program responded to
approximately 500 telephone and e-mail requests for information each month, directed the
marketing efforts for all BEBR publications, provided press releases to news agencies,
maintained the BEBR web site, participated in UF's public relations award program, made
presentations at seminars and conferences, and participated in the UF Communication Network
(UFCN). Susan Floyd served on the board of directors for the Association for University
Business and Economic Research (AUBER). She directed the Editors' sessions and made
presentations at two other sessions at the Fall 2001 AUBER conference. Carol Griffen and Dot
Evans were recognized as University of Florida Superior Accomplishment Award recipients for
outstanding performance during the year.

The Administrative Services and Information Technology (IT) Programs provided
the background support that held BEBR together. Administrative staff members managed the
BEBR budget, tracked revenues and expenditures, maintained personnel files and appointments,
handled orders and shipments of BEBR publications, provided oversight for compliance with
University rules and regulations, and performed many other essential office tasks. The
expansion of the Survey Program created additional work for the administrative staff, requiring
the processing of a much larger number of employee appointments and payroll records. Staff
members did an excellent job responding to these demands and finding new ways to make the
BEBR operate more smoothly and efficiently. They also greatly increased the number of flyers
sent out to advertise BEBR programs and publications. The IT Program purchased and installed
new equipment and software, provided technical support for all computer and network programs,
and maintained and upgraded the BEBR database. Balaji Krishnaprasad joined the IT staff and
will be working on developing and maintaining the BEBR web site. Plans for the coming year
include the development of new accounting procedures for tracking revenues and expenditures.










BEBR currently employs twenty full-time staff members and a large number of graduate
and undergraduate students (see Figure 2). This report provides a quick overview and summary of
BEBR's activities and output during the past year. For additional information on our products,
services, and research activities, check out our web site at www.bebr.ufl.edu or give us a call at
(352) 392-0171.











Figure 2. Organizational Chart, BEBR
July 2002


I I I
Population Forecasting Policy Studies


Survey
Survey


Services










Table 1. Publications, 2001-2002


Dewey, Jim and David Denslow

"2001 Florida Price Level Index," report prepared for the Florida Department of Education,
January 2001. Available online at www.firn.edu/doe/bin00047.

"2001 Florida Price Level Index: Supporting Information in Spreadsheet Format," report
prepared for the Florida Department of Education, January 2001. Available online at
www.bebr.ufl.edu.

"Florida Transportation Trends and Conditions," report prepared for the Florida
Department of Transportation, March 2002, revised June 2002. Available online at
www.bebr.ufl.edu.

Evans, Dorothy A.

Florida County Perspective, 2001. BEBR, University of Florida, February 2002.

Floyd, Susan and Dorothy A. Evans

Florida Statistical Abstract, 2001. BEBR, University of Florida, November 2001.

Floyd, Susan, Carol Griffen and Dorothy A. Evans

Florida County Rankings, 2001. BEBR, University of Florida, December 2001.

Florida and the Nation, 2002. BEBR, University of Florida, April 2002.

Lenze, David

"Economic Impact of NASA on Central Florida, 2001: Final Report," report prepared for
Kennedy Space Center, February 2002.

"Economic Impact of NASA on Central Florida, 2001: Methodological Supplement,"
report prepared for Kennedy Space Center, February 2002. Electronic format only.

McCarty, Chris

"Structure in Personal Networks," Journal ofSocial Structure, Vol. 3, No. 1, March 2002.










Table 1. Publications, 2001-2002
(continued)


Nogle, June

Facts About Immigration and Asking Six Big Questions for Florida and Miami-Dade
County. BEBR, University of Florida, November 2001 (with Thomas D. Boswell, Rob
Paral, and Richard Langendorf).

Smith, Stanley K.

"Population Projections for Small Areas: New Directions in the 21st Century," Applied
Demography, Vol. 14, No. 4, 2002 (with David Swanson and Jeff Tayman).

"Small-Area Demography," International Encyclopedia of Population, MacMillen
Reference, forthcoming 2002.

"Business Demography," International Encyclopedia ofPopulation, MacMillen Reference,
forthcoming 2002 (with Peter Morrison).

Smith, Stanley K. and Scott Cody

"Number of Households and Average Household Size in Florida: April 1, 2001," Florida
Population Studies, Bulletin 131 BEBR, University of Florida, January 2002.

Smith, Stanley K. and June Nogle

"Population Projections by Age, Sex and Race for Florida and its Counties, 2000-2020,"
Florida Population Studies, Bulletin 130, BEBR, University of Florida, October 2001.

"Projections of Florida Population by County, 2001-2030," Florida Population Studies,
Bulletin 132, BEBR, University of Florida, February 2002.

Smith, Stanley K., June Nogle and Scott Cody

"A Regression Approach to Estimating the Average Number of Persons per Household,"
Demography, forthcoming 2002.

Florida Estimates ofPopulation 2001. BEBR, University of Florida, January 2002.










Table 1. Publications, 2001-2002
(continued)


West, Carol

"Structural Regional Factors that Determine Absolute and Relative Accuracy of Regional
Labor Market Forecasts," Journal ofAgricultural and Applied Economics, forthcoming.

West, Carol and David Lenze

The Florida Long-Term Economic Forecast Vol. 1, State and MSAs. BEBR, University of
Florida, September 2001.

The Florida Long-Term Economic Forecast Vol. 2, State and Counties. BEBR, University
of Florida, September 2001.











Table 2. Papers Presented at Academic/Professional Conferences, 2001-2002


Lenze, David

"Economic and Demographic Determinants of Average Household Size: A Regional
Analysis," 48th North American Meeting of the Regional Science Association International,
Charleston, South Carolina, November 2001.

"Today's Labor Market in Perspective," University Career Centers' Directors Meeting,
Gainesville, March 2002.

McCarty, Chris

"Does Network Size Matter?" International Sunbelt Social Networks Conference, New
Orleans, February 2002.

"Centrality in Egocentric Networks," International Sunbelt Social Networks Conference,
New Orleans, February 2002.

Nogle, June

"Population Size and Geographic Distribution of the Elderly in Florida," annual meeting of
the Southern Demographic Association, Miami Beach, October 2001.

"Overview of Immigration Issues in Florida," Florida History Conference, Tallahassee,
February 2002.

Smith, Stanley K.

"A Regression Approach to Estimating the Average Number of Persons Per Household,"
annual meeting of the Southern Demographic Association, Miami Beach, October 2001
(with June Nogle and Scott Cody).

West, Carol T.

"Educating to Meet the Demands of Florida Business and Law Schools," 2nd Legal and
Policy Issues in the Americas Symposium at the University of Law School, Gainesville,
April 2001.

"Accuracy of Regional Forecasts," annual meeting of the North American Regional
Science Association, Charleston, November 2001.











Table 3. Presentations to Business/Civic/Government Groups, 2001-2002


Denslow, David

"The DCD and Other Components of the FEFP," Florida Task Force for School Finance
Reform, Tallahassee, August 2001.

"The Economic Outlook," Gainesville Rotary, Gainesville, September 2001.

"Outlook for Financial Markets," GAIFA, Gainesville, January 2002.

"Outlook for Capital Markets," Siventures, Fort Myers, January 2002.

"The Economies of Central Asia," Retired Faculty, Gainesville, February 2002.

"Economic Outlook," DIS Advisory Council, Gainesville, March 2002.

Dewey, Jim

"The DCD and Other Components of the FEFP," Florida Task Force for School Finance
Reform, Tallahassee, August 2001.

Floyd, Susan

"Drafting Tables to Replicators," Association for University Business and Economic Research,
2001 Fall Conference, Gulfport, MS, October 2001.

Nogle, June

"Population Projections by BEBR," Florida Department of Transportation, Land Use
Modeling Training, Jacksonville, May 2001.

"Implications of Census Results," Florida Government Finance Officers Association,
Annual Meeting, Ft. Lauderdale, May 2001.

"BEBR and the 2000 Census," Alachua County Library Association, Gainesville, May
2001.

"Update on the 2000 Census Data and BEBR Population Projections," Tampa Bay
Transportation Planning Applications Group, Tampa, August 2001.










Table 3. Presentations to University/Business/Civic Groups, 2001-2002
(continued)


Smith, Stanley K.

"Florida Population: Where We've Been and Where We're Going," UF Retired Faculty,
Gainesville, October 2001.

"Population Estimates in Florida: Methodology and Evaluation," Miami-Dade City and
County Management Association, Miami Beach, October 2001.











Table 4. Professional Service, 2001-2002


Denslow, David

Member, Post-Secondary Education Finance Task Force, State of Florida.

Member, Trends and Conditions Group, Florida Department of Transportation.

Floyd, Susan

Board of Directors, Association for University Business and Economic Research
(AUBER).

Program and Session chair, annual meeting of the AUBER.

Nogle, June

Secretary-Treasurer, Southern Demographic Association.

Newsletter Co-Editor, Applied Demography.

Chair, Federal-State Cooperative Program for Population Estimates.

Smith, Stanley K.

Member, Committee on Applied Demography, Population Association of America.

Member, Census Advisory Committee of Professional Associations.

Session chair, annual meeting of the Southern Demographic Association.

West, Carol

Member of Editorial Board, International Regional Science Review.

Member of Editorial Board, Journal of Regional Science.

Member, Governor's Council of Economic Advisors, State of Florida.

Member, Expert Review Board on Mitigating the Cost of Natural Disasters, State of
Florida.











Table 5. Contracts and Grants Awarded, 2001-2002*


Dewey, Jim

"Demographic and Economic Trends," Florida Department of Transportation $87,500

"Analysis of Freight Movement Mode Choice Factors," Florida Department $78,776
of Transportation

"2001 Florida Price of Living Index," Florida Department of Education $42,658

Lenze, David

"Economic Impact of NASA on Central Florida," NASA $14,661

McCarty, Chris

Africare 742
Florida Agency for Health Care Administration 206,756
Florida Agency for Health Care Administration 17,408
Florida Department of Education 37,076
Florida Department of Elder Affairs 4,000
Florida Department of Health 8,800
Florida Medicaid Center 81,000
Florida Public Service Commission 10,000
FSU/Florida Department of Health 97,000
Health Management Associates 24,000
Kansas Health Institute 100,000
UF College of Dentistry 21,000
UF Department of Anthropology 18,000
UF Department of Forestry 586
UF Department of Parks and Recreation 48,000
UF Department of Parks and Recreation 20,000
UF-IFAS 55,000
UF Institute for Child Health Policy 817,260
Visit Florida 9,531

Total $1,576,159

Smith, Stanley K.

"Population Research Contract," Florida Legislature $266,813










Table 5. Contracts and Grants Awarded, 2001-2002*
(continued)


West, Carol T.


"Florida Long-Run Economic Forecasting Model," Agency for
Workforce Innovation, State of Florida.


$180,000


TOTAL $2,246,567


*Note: These were contracts and grants awarded during the 2001-2002 fiscal year. Not all
payments were received during the fiscal year.










Table 6. Courses Taught, 2001-2002


Denslow, David A.


Intro Macroeconomics
Intro Macroeconomics
Intro Macroeconomics


3 credits
3 credits
3 credits


300 students
2000 students
900 students


Fall 01


Smith, Stanley K.


Fall 01


ANT6930 Social Network Analysis 3 credits 12 students



ECP 3113 Population Economics 4 credits 31 students


Summer 01
Fall 01
Spring 02


ECO 2013
ECO 2013
ECO 2013


McCarty, Chris




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