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Group Title: Annual report, Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Florida
Title: Annual report
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Title: Annual report
Series Title: Annual report
Physical Description: Serial
Language: English
Creator: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, Warrington College of Business Administration, University of Florida
Publisher: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, Warrington College of Business Administration, University of Florida
Place of Publication: Gainesville, Fla.
Publication Date: 2000-2001
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Bibliographic ID: UF00091101
Volume ID: VID00005
Source Institution: University of Florida
Holding Location: University of Florida
Rights Management: All rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.

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Bureau of Economic and Business Research
Annual Report 2000-2001


July 2001








Bureau of Economic and Business Research
221 Matherly Hall
P.O. Box 117145
University of Florida
Gainesville, FL 32611-7145
Telephone: 352-392-0171
Fax: 352-392-4739
Web Site: www.bebr.ufl.edu


UNIVERSITY OF
FLORIDA


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Staff members, Bureau of Economic and Business Research
July 2001



Director: Stanley K. Smith, Ph.D., Professor and Program Director

Forecasting Program:
Carol T. West, Ph.D., Professor and Program Director
David G. Lenze, Ph.D., Associate Program Director

Policy Studies Program:
David A. Denslow, Ph.D., Professor and Program Director
James F. (Jim) Dewey, Ph.D.
Eve Irwin, B.A.

Population Program:
Stanley K. Smith, Ph.D., Professor and Program Director
Scott Cody, M.B.A.
June Nogle, Ph.D.

Survey Program:
Chris McCarty, Ph.D., Program Director
Scott Richards, M.A.
Alicia Turner

Information/Publication Services:
Susan Floyd, M.A., Program Director
Carol Griffen, B.S.
Dorothy Evans

Administrative Services and Information Technology:
Clinton B. Collins, B.S., Program Director
Georgia S. Baldwin, B.S.
Janet Fletcher
Pamela Middleton
Janet Rose, A.A.











Bureau of Economic and Business Research
Annual Report 2000-2001


About the BEBR

Founded in 1929, the Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR) is an applied research center in
the Warrington College of Business Administration at the University of Florida. Its primary missions are to:
1) Collect, analyze, and generate economic and demographic data for Florida and its local areas; 2) Conduct
economic, demographic, and public policy research on topics of particular importance to the state of Florida;
and 3) Distribute data and research findings throughout the state and the nation. The BEBR seeks to conduct
research that is both academically sound and directly relevant to public and private decision makers in
Florida.

The BEBR plays a number of roles within the College and the University. Its research contributes to a
deeper understanding of Florida's rapidly changing economic and demographic climate. It provides
employment and training for numerous graduate students and more than 200 undergraduate students each
year. It generates revenues by selling data and publications and by obtaining research contracts and grants. It
creates favorable publicity for the College and University through its publications, presentations, and
reference services. Its staff members teach several courses each year in the Economics Department, and
occasionally in other departments as well. BEBR activities fall within the University's traditional functions
of teaching, research, and service, but the impact of those activities carries far beyond campus boundaries.

The Year in Review

The BEBR had another very good year in 2000-2001. Staff members produced a broad array of scholarly
and technical publications; presented papers at professional conferences; served on advisory committees
for federal and state government agencies; responded to a wide variety of information requests from
businesses, government agencies, the media, and members of the general public; served on committees
for professional associations; and made presentations to civic, government, and business groups
throughout Florida. These research and service activities have a significant impact on the availability of
information and the status of applied economic and demographic research in Florida.

Total revenues topped $3.1 million in 2000-2001, the most in BEBR history. This increase was caused
primarily by additional revenue from research contracts, which rose by more than $600,000 from the
previous year. Research contracts generated almost 69% of the BEBR's income, while 8% came from the
sale of data and publications and 23% came from the University of Florida as part of the regular annual
budget (see Figure 1). Expenditures also increased substantially, reflecting the higher costs associated
with larger work loads. About 80% of expenditures were for wages and salaries, with the remainder
going for computer equipment, software licenses, telephone bills, travel, postage, office supplies, and
other expenses.










Figure 1. Estimated Revenues 2000-2001
(preliminary): $3,139,000
Sale of
Products
$241,000
8% University of
Florida
$710,000
23%
Contracts 230
$2,188,000
69%


There were several personnel and organizational changes in the BEBR during 2000-2001. Janet Galvez
retired as Director of the Information and Publication Services Program and was replaced by Susan
Floyd, a longtime member of the program. Eve Irwin shifted her primary area of responsibility from the
Information and Publication Services Program to the Policy Studies Program. Georgia Baldwin joined
the BEBR as a data base manager and will coordinate efforts to develop a unified data base that
incorporates historical data series from all of the BEBR's research and publication programs. Clint
Collins expanded his responsibilities to include oversight of the Information and Publication Services
Program and the data base manager. We believe these changes will increase the efficiency of BEBR
operations and help us produce more and better products without the need for additional resources from
the College or the University.

The Forecasting Program completed the third year of a cooperative arrangement with the Agency for
Workforce Innovation. This arrangement eliminates overlap in economic forecasts and provides
increased breadth and depth for long-term forecasts of Florida and its 20 metropolitan areas and 67
counties. During the past year, the forecast horizon was extended from 2010 to 2015 and projections
were made for all years in the forecast period. The short-term forecasts for 2001 and 2002 are of special
interest and fill a previous void in substate market indicators. To keep them timely, they are published on
the web as soon as completed and before the entire forecast is finalized.

Scholarly research from the Forecasting Program was published in three academic journals, International
Journal of Fn ii ,, Journal of Regional Science and International Regional Science Review. In
addition, a special research project estimated the economic impact of NASA in Florida. David Lenze
made presentations at two professional conferences and Carol West served as a member of the Governor's
Council of Economic Advisors and on the editorial boards of two scholarly journals. Next year, the
Forecasting Program will be focused on incorporating new regional data available from the 2000 census
into its modeling process. New benchmark measures will require substantial revision of historical data
between 1990 and 2000 and re-estimation of the statistical relationships used in the models. Two
scholarly papers on forecast accuracy are in process and should be completed during the upcoming year.


The Policy Studies Program continued its work for the Florida Department of Education on the Florida
Price Level Index, which affects the allocation of nearly $10 billion of K-12 funding each year. This year,
staff members developed a streamlined index and designed a spreadsheet routine making the calculations
transparent and accessible to any interested party. They wrote a summary report describing the index and
its underlying methodology. This project included analyses of land prices and apartment rents and a
telephone survey of each of Florida's counties. These changes permitted the construction of an index that
is more accurate and more transparent than the previous index, but costs less than one-third as much to










produce.


The Policy Studies Program also continued its work on a multi-year study of trends and conditions
important to transportation planning in Florida. This study is funded by the Florida Department of
Transportation and covers: 1) Developing a model for projecting the economic and demographic
conditions that will affect the demand for transportation infrastructure and services over the next 25 years,
allowing for the possibility that the level of infrastructure investment will have an impact on economic
and demographic trends, and 2) Providing a broad-based analysis of the linkages between Florida's
transportation investments and its economic development over the past 25 to 50 years. The overall goal of
this research is to illuminate the role of transportation policy in Florida's regional economic development.
David Denslow and Jim Dewey each refereed two articles for scholarly journals and made several
presentations on Florida's economic outlook to business, government, and professional groups throughout
the state. Current research projects include the examination of spatial variations in wages, living costs,
and amenities; the construction of regional price indexes; and the role of transportation policy and
investment in regional economies.

The Population Program produced population estimates for all of the cities and counties in Florida for
April 1, 2000. During the coming year, these estimates will be compared to the results of the 2000 census
in order to evaluate their accuracy and investigate ways to improve their performance. Previously
published annual state and county estimates for 1990-2000 were revised in order to provide a data series
consistent with 2000 census data. A new set of state and county population projections was also
constructed. Staff members in the Population Program published a book, a short article, and three
technical publications; presented two papers at professional conferences; served on four committees for
professional associations; and made five presentations on demographic issues to academic, business, and
civic groups throughout the state. Stan Smith, Director of the Population Program, completed the second
year of a three-year term as a representative of the Population Association of America to the Census
Advisory Committee of Professional Associations. June Nogle completed the second year of a three-year
term as Secretary-Treasurer of the Southern Demographic Association.

Population Program staff members were actively involved in 2000 census activities, participating in state
and local census review committees and maintaining close contacts with the U.S. Census Bureau. June
Nogle made several trips to Census Bureau headquarters to review preliminary population and housing
counts for cities and counties in Florida. Stan Smith, June Nogle, and Scott Cody received a grant from
the Census Bureau to develop a regression model for estimating average household size. Program staff
are currently doing research on seasonal and other temporary migration patterns in Florida, the
determinants of average household size, and methods for estimating Hispanic residents. Future projects
will include the evaluation of population estimates and projections using 2000 census results.

The Survey Program set new records in the number of surveys conducted and total revenues generated.
The program conducted surveys for 22 different funding agencies last year. The primary focus continues
to be on health care issues, such as health insurance coverage and satisfaction with health care programs.
In addition to conducting surveys for faculty members and many state agencies in Florida, the program
conducted surveys for government agencies in several other states. It is expected that gross revenue from
survey contracts will exceed $1.6 million during the current fiscal year. The majority of this funding
supports the interviewing staff, which now numbers more than 200; most of these interviewers are
students at the University of Florida or Santa Fe Community College. The Survey Program not only
provides employment opportunities to graduate and undergraduate students, but also provides experience
in interviewing, management, and analytical skills.










Chris McCarty, Director of the Survey Program, presented papers at two professional conferences and
attended two advisory board meetings associated with the development of surveys. Scott Richards and
Alicia Turner attended several conferences and technical training sessions. Plans for the coming year
include additional improvements to the survey software and infrastructure, the consolidation of all survey
activities in a single location, and the expansion of peak capacity to 70-80 survey stations.

The Information and Publication Services Program published four annual statistical compendia and
four monthly and annual serial reports during the past year: Florida Statistical Abstract 2000, Florida and
the Nation 2000, Florida County Rankings 2000, Florida County Perspectives 2000, 2000 Housing Starts
and Permits, 2000 Building Permit Activity Reports, and 2000 Gross and Taxable Sales. The program
also provided publication support to other BEBR research programs throughout the year, preparing
printer-ready copy and managing printing contracts for ten additional publications. The Florida
Statistical Abstract 1999 received the prestigious "Award for Excellence in Publications" at the 2000 fall
meeting of the Association for University Business and Economic Research (AUBER).

Staff members of the Information and Publication Services Program direct the marketing efforts for all
BEBR publications, provide press releases to news agencies, maintain the BEBR web site, make
presentations at seminars and conferences, and participate in the University of Florida's public relations
award program. They play a major service role for the College and the University by responding to
approximately 500 telephone and e-mail requests each month. They also make significant contributions
to AUBER: Eve Irwin is currently an AUBER board member and she and Carol Griffen made
presentations at the 2000 annual conference.

The Administrative Services and Information Technology Program provided the background support
that held the BEBR together. Administrative staff members managed the BEBR budget, tracked all
revenues and expenditures, maintained and upgraded office facilities and equipment, provided technical
support for all computer and network programs, maintained personnel files and appointments, handled
orders and shipments of BEBR publications, provided oversight for compliance with University rules and
regulations, and performed many other essential office tasks. The addition of a second survey lab created
a great deal of additional work for the administrative staff, both in terms of outfitting the lab and
processing a large number of new employee appointments. Staff members did an excellent job
responding to these demands and finding new ways to make the BEBR operate more smoothly and
efficiently. Plans for the coming year include the addition of a staff member to develop and maintain the
BEBR web site and the development of new accounting procedures for tracking revenues and
expenditures.

The BEBR currently employs nineteen full-time staff members and a large number of graduate and
undergraduate students (see Figure 2). This report provides a quick overview and summary of the BEBR's
activities and output during the past year. For additional information on our products, services, and
research activities, check out our web site at www.bebr.ufl.edu or give us a call at (352) 392-0171.














Figure 2. Organizational Chart, BEBR
July 2001


Population Forecasting


Policy S)udies


SurAey


Services
















Table 1. Publications, 2000-2001


Cody, Scott

Florida Population: Census Summary 2000. BEBR, University of Florida (May 2001), co-author.

"Revised Annual Population Estimates by County in Florida, with Components of Growth, 1990-2000,"
Special Population Reports, No. 5. BEBR, University of Florida (April 2001), co-author.

Denslow, David

"The 2000 Florida Price Level Index," report prepared for the Florida Department of Education (February
2001), co-author.

"Report on Trends and Conditions Research: Modeling Demographic and Economic Trends and Their
Relation to the Supply and Demand for Transportation," report prepared for the Florida Department of
Transportation (August 2000), co-author.

Dewey, Jim

"Living the Good Life in Gainesville," The Gainesville Sun Almanac (March 2001).

"The 2000 Florida Price Level Index," report prepared for the Florida Department of Education (February
2001), co-author.

"Report on Trends and Conditions Research: Modeling Demographic and Economic Trends and Their
Relation to the Supply and Demand for Transportation," report prepared for the Florida Department of
Transportation (August 2000), co-author.

Floyd, Susan

Florida and the Nation 2001. BEBR, University of Florida (April 2001), editor.

Florida Statistical Abstract 2000. BEBR, University of Florida (November 2000), senior editor.

Florida County Rankings 2000. BEBR, University of Florida (November 2000), senior editor.

Griffen, Carol

Building Permit Activity in Florida. BEBR, University of Florida (monthly May 2000 April 2001),
editor.

Gross and Taxable Sales Reports. BEBR, University of Florida (monthly May 2000 April 2001),
editor.











Table 1. Publications, 2000-2001
(continued)


Florida and the Nation 2001. BEBR, University of Florida (April 2001), assistant editor.

Irwin, Eve

"The 2000 Florida Price Level Index," report prepared for the Florida Department of Education (February
2001), co-author.

Florida County Perspective 2000. BEBR, University of Florida (December 2000), editor.

Florida Statistical Abstract 2000. BEBR, University of Florida (November 2000), managing editor.

Florida County Rankings 2000. BEBR, University of Florida (November 2000), managing editor.


Lenze, David

"Economic Impact of NASA on Central Florida," report for National Aeronautics & Space Administration
(April 2001).

"Economic Impact of NASA on Central Florida: Supplementary Report," report for National Aeronautics &
Space Administration (April 2001).

The Florida Long-Term Economic Forecast Vol. 1, State and MSAs. BEBR, University of Florida
(September 2000), co-author.

The Florida Long-Term Economic Forecast Vol. 2, State and Counties. BEBR, University of Florida
(September 2000), co-author.

Nogle, June

"Revised Annual Population Estimates by County in Florida, with Components of Growth, 1990-2000,"
Special Population Reports, No. 5. BEBR, University of Florida (April 2001), co-author.

"Population Projections by Age, Sex and Race for Florida and its Counties, 1999-2015," Florida
Population Studies, Bulletin 127. BEBR, University of Florida (June 2000), co-author.

Smith, Stanley K.

State and Local Population Projections: Methodology and Analysis. New York: Kluwer Academic/Plenum
Publishers, 2001.










Table 1. Publications, 2000-2001
(continued)


Florida Population: Census Summary 2000. BEBR, University of Florida (May 2001), co-author.

"Florida and the 2000 Census," Triangle News (Spring 2001).

"Revised Annual Population Estimates by County in Florida, with Components of Growth, 1990-2000,"
Special Population Reports, No. 5. BEBR, University of Florida (April 2001), co-author.

West, Carol

"Regional Multi-Family Housing Start Forecast Accuracy," International Journal of ImI,,' ii. Vol.
17 (2001), pgs. 171-180, co-author.

"Local Government Portfolios and Regional Growth: Some Combined Dynamic CGE/Optimal Control
Results," Journal ofRegional Science, Vol. 41 (2001), pgs. 219-254, co-author.

"Policy Sensitivity in Dynamic Optimization Models: A Study Remembering William Alonso's Regional
Modeling Perspectives," International Regional Science Review, Vol. 24 (2001), pgs. 302-327, co-
author.

The Florida Long-Term Economic Forecast Vol. 1, State and MSAs. BEBR, University of Florida
(September 2000), co-author.

The Florida Long-Term Economic Forecast Vol. 2, State and Counties. BEBR, University of Florida
(September 2000), co-author.












Table 2. Papers Presented at Academic/Professional Conferences, 2000-2001


Denslow, David

"The Academic Labor Market," Brazilian Association of Independent Universities, University of Florida
(September 2000).

Griffen, Carol

"Maximizing Efficiency of Pagemaker Protecting Your Data," AUBER Conference, Chicago (October
2001).

Irwin, Eve

"Linking Data Files in Excel," AUBER Conference, Chicago (October 2001).

Lenze, David

"The National, State, and Southeast Florida Economic Outlook," South Florida Real Estate Conference &
Trade Show, Fort Lauderdale (October 2000).

McCarty, Chris

"Estimating Transmission Bias in the Network Scale-up Method," International Conference on Social
Science Methodology, Cologne, Germany (July 2000).

"Assessing the Accuracy of Reported Alter Characteristics," International Social Networks Conference,
Vancouver, BC (May 2000).

Smith, Stanley K.

"A Regression Approach to Estimating the Average Number of Persons per Household," Annual Meeting
of the Southern Demographic Association, San Antonio, Texas (October 2000).

"Temporary Migration in Florida: Some Preliminary Results," Biennial Meeting of the International
Conference on Applied Demography, Bowling Green, Ohio (September 2000).












Table 3. Presentations to University/Business/Civic Groups, 2000-2001


Denslow, David

"US Economic Outlook," DIS Forum, University of Florida, Gainesville (April 2001).

"US Economic Outlook," UF Retired Faculty, Gainesville (April 2001).

"The Florida Economy," Florida Institute of CPA's, Gainesville (November 2000).

Dewey, Jim

"Florida Education Funding Outlook," Annual Meeting of the Florida School Finance Officer
Association, Ocala (November 2000).

Floyd, Susan

"Finding Statistical Resources and Data," Grant Professionals Network Conference, Orlando (March
2001).

Lenze, David

"The National, State, and Tampa-St.Petersburg-Clearwater Economic Outlook," Clearwater Regional
Chamber of Commerce Success Breakfast, Clearwater (October 2000).

Nogle, June

"Behind the Scenes at Census 2000," Asian American Journalists Association, Florida Chapter Conference,
St. Petersburg (March 2001).

"Data Quality and the US Census Bureau," Guest Lecture to the University of Florida Analysis of Thematic
Data Quality (GEO 5186), Gainesville (February 2001).

"Census 2000: The Counting is Over, What's Next?" Florida Library Association Annual Meeting, Orlando
(April 2000).

Smith, Stanley K.

"Population Growth in North Central Florida," Alliance for Economic Development, Gainesville
(November 2000).

"Where is Everybody? Methods for Estimating and Projecting State and Local Populations," Geography
Symposium, University of Florida, Gainesville (September 2000).











Table 4. Professional Service, 2000-2001


Irwin, Eve

Board of Directors, Association for University Business and Economic Research.

Nogle, June

Secretary-Treasurer, Southern Demographic Association.

Smith, Stanley K.

Census Advisory Committee of Professional Associations.

Committee on Applied Demography, Population Association of America.

Nominations Committee, Southern Demographic Association.

West, Carol

Member of Governor's Council of Economic Advisors.

Editorial Board Member, Journal of Regional Science.

Editorial Board Member, International Regional Science Review.












Table 5. Contracts and Grants Awarded, 2000-2001*


Denslow, David

"Florida Price Level Index," Florida Department of Education, $59,000

Dewey, Jim

"Trends and Conditions Research Macroeconomic Analysis," Florida Department of Transportation,
$10,584
"Macroeconomic Analysis of Florida Trends and Conditions Report," Florida Department of
Transportation, $5,000

Lenze, David

"NASA Economic Impact on Brevard County and Central Florida," NASA, $9,661

McCarty, Chris

Florida Institute for Child Health Policy $657,310
Florida Agency for Health Care Administration 238,940
State of Kansas 185,000
State of Indiana 125,000
Florida Voucher Study 91,000
Florida Department of Transportation 58,800
Florida Department of Environmental Protection 55,125
National Science Foundation 48,666
Florida Department of Children and Families 37,800
Florida Department of Health 32,500
Florida Department of Education (Florida Price Level Index) 25,000
Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences 23,800
North Florida Health Planning Council 14,000
Florida Concrete and Products Association 10,000
UF Medicaid Studies Center 10,000
Visit Florida 8,000
Florida Census Count 2000 7,000
Florida Public Service Commission 6,000
University of North Florida 5,000
UF Department of Family Practice & Community Medicine 5,000
UF College of Dentistry 4,500
Hospice 4,000
Florida Department of Elder Affairs 4,000











Table 5. Contracts and Grants, 2000-2001*
(continued)

Nogle, June

"Evaluation of Census 2000," US Census Bureau, $25,190

Smith, Stanley K.

"Population Research Contract," Florida Legislature, $260,000
"Regression Estimates of Persons per Household," U.S. Census Bureau, $15,000

West, Carol T.

"Florida Long-Run Economic Forecasting Models," Florida Department of Labor, $180,000.


TOTAL $2,220,876













*Note: These were contracts and grants awarded for the 2000-2001 fiscal year. Not all payments were
received during that 12-month period.












Table 6. Courses Taught, 2000-2001


Denslow, David A.

Sum 00 ECO 2013

Fall 00 ECO 2013

Spr 01 ECO 2013

Smith, Stanley K.

Spr 01 ECP3113


Intro Macroeconomics

Intro Macroeconomics

Intro Macroeconomics



Population Economics


3 credits

3 credits

3 credits



4 credits


300 students

2000 students

1000 students



40 students




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