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Group Title: Annual report, Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Florida
Title: Annual report
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Title: Annual report
Series Title: Annual report
Physical Description: Serial
Language: English
Creator: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, Warrington College of Business Administration, University of Florida
Publisher: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, Warrington College of Business Administration, University of Florida
Place of Publication: Gainesville, Fla.
Publication Date: 1998-1999
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Bibliographic ID: UF00091101
Volume ID: VID00003
Source Institution: University of Florida
Holding Location: University of Florida
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Bureau of Economic and Business Research
Annual Report 1998-99


June 1999







Bureau of Economic and Business Research
221 Matherly Hall
P.O. Box 117145
University of Florida
Gainesville, FL 32611-7145
Telephone: 352-392-0171
Fax: 352-392-4739
Web Site: www.bebr.ufl.edu



UNIVERSITY OF
FLORIDA











Staff members, Bureau of Economic and Business Research
June 1999



Director: Stanley K. Smith, Ph.D., Professor and Program Director

Forecasting Program:
Carol T. West, Ph.D., Professor and Program Director
David G. Lenze, Ph.D., Associate Program Director
Janet Galvez, M. S.

Policy Studies Program:
David A. Denslow, Ph.D., Professor and Program Director
James (Jim) F. Dewey, Ph.D.

Population Program:
Stanley K. Smith, Ph.D., Professor and Program Director
Scott Cody, M.B.A.
June Nogle, Ph.D.

Survey Program:
Chris McCarty, Ph.D., Program Director
Ken Mease, Ph.D.

Information/Publication Services:
Janet Galvez, M.S., Program Director
Susan Floyd, B.A.
Eve Irwin, B.A.
Carol McLarty, B.S.
Dorothy Evans

Administrative Services:
Clinton B. Collins, B.S., Program Director
Janet Fletcher
Pamela Middleton
Janet Rose, A.A.











Bureau of Economic and Business Research
Annual Report 1998-99


About the BEBR

Founded in 1929, the Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR) is an applied research center
in the Warrington College of Business Administration at the University of Florida. Its primary mission is
to: 1) Collect, analyze, and generate economic and demographic data on Florida and its local areas; 2)
Conduct economic, demographic, and public policy research on topics of particular importance to the state
of Florida; and 3) Distribute data and research findings throughout the state and the nation. The BEBR
seeks to conduct research that is both academically sound and directly relevant to public and private
decision-makers in Florida.

The BEBR plays a number of roles within the College and the University. Its research contributes to a
deeper understanding of Florida's rapidly changing economic and demographic climate. It provides
employment and training for several graduate students and more than 100 undergraduate students each
year. It generates revenues by selling data and publications and by obtaining research contracts and
grants. It creates favorable publicity for the College and University through its publications, presentations,
and reference services. Its staff members teach several courses each year in the Economics Department,
and occasionally in other departments as well. BEBR activities thus fall within the University's traditional
functions of teaching, research, and service, but the impact of those activities carries far beyond campus
boundaries.

The Year in Review

The BEBR had another successful year in 1998-1999. Staff members produced their usual broad array of
academic and technical publications, presented papers at national conferences, served on committees for
national professional organizations, answered a wide variety of requests for information, and made
presentations to civic, government, and business groups throughout Florida. A renovation project improved
the configuration of office space and added 16 work stations to the Survey Lab. Computer hardware,
software, and network services were upgraded. Revenues from research contracts were more than
$963,000.

Perhaps the most important change in the BEBR during the past year was a shift in its organizational
structure. Dick Scoggins, the Associate Director from 1995-1998, resigned last June to pursue private
business opportunities. Rather than fill that position, we split the duties into two parts and promoted two
staff members from within the BEBR to fill those parts. Janet Galvez became the Director of
Information/Publication Services, supervising the staff in that area and overseeing the BEBR web site and
the production of all BEBR publications. She continues in her previous role as data manager for the
Forecasting Program. Clint Collins became Director of Administrative Services, overseeing the budget
and accounting system, personnel appointments, compliance with College and University regulations, and
the supervision of front office staff. He continues in his previous role as network administrator and overall
computer guru for the BEBR.












Figure 1. Estimated Revenues 1998-99
(preliminary): $1,857,838


Sale of
Products
$204,300
11%

Contracts University of
$963,538 Florida
52% $690,000
37%



This staff reorganization has gone very smoothly and we believe it has allowed us to make the most
efficient use of our personnel resources. The vacated staff line was used to hire Jim Dewey, who
received his Ph.D. from the UF Economics Department last fall. Jim is working with Dave Denslow as
an analyst in the Policy Studies Program. His addition to the staff has helped us expand our research
capacity.

The BEBR's estimated gross revenues for 1998-1999 were $1,857,838, about $36,000 lower than last
year. As shown in Figure 1, research contracts accounted for 52% of the BEBR's revenues in 1998-1999,
University resources accounted for 37%, and the sale of data and publications accounted for 11%. About
80% of the BEBR's budget is typically spent on wages and salaries, with the remainder going toward
capital outlays, telephone, travel, postage, office supplies, and other expenses. Major expenses during
1998-1999 included the renovation of office space in Matherly 225 and the addition of computers and
telephone equipment for the Survey Lab.

The BEBR currently employs eighteen full-time staff members. Three are teaching faculty with joint
appointments in the Economics Department; seven are research analysts in the Population, Forecasting,
Survey, and Policy Studies programs; four are publication specialists or coordinators of information and
publication services; and four are support personnel in office management, computing, accounting, and
secretarial positions. BEBR staff members are skilled, motivated, and productive; they represent an
important human resource for the College, the University, and the State of Florida. The BEBR's
organizational chart is shown in Figure 2.

The Population Program continued to produce the official population estimates for all cities and counties
in Florida; estimates of households and average household size for the state and each county; and
population projections by age, sex, and race for the state and each county. Staff members presented four
papers at professional meetings, published three articles in academic journals or books, and served on
three committees for professional organizations. Stan Smith completed his term as a panel member on the
National Academy of Science's Panel on Alternative Census Methodologies and co-authored its final
report. June Nogle chaired the annual meeting of the Federal-State Cooperative Program for Population
Projections and was selected to serve a 3-year term as Secretary-Treasurer of the Southern Demographic
Association. Staff members are currently doing research on the labor force participation of Hispanic









immigrant women; the fiscal impact of immigrants in Florida; the methodology and analysis of state and
local population projections; and the use of telephone customer data as an indicator of the growth in the
number of households in Florida.

The Forecasting Program continued to publish The Florida Long-term Economic Forecast, an annual
publication presenting economic forecasts for the state and each county for 2000, 2005, and 2010. A
major contract with the Florida Concrete & Products Association was also completed. Staff members are
currently working to combine their efforts with the Florida Department of Labor and Employment Security
to produce an enhanced set of detailed forecasts during the coming year. Staff members published two
articles in academic journals, presented a paper at a professional meeting, made five presentations to state
and local groups in Florida, and served on the editorial boards of two journals and on two committees for
professional organizations. Carol West served as a member on the National Academy of Science's
Committee on Assessing the Costs of Natural Disasters and co-authored its final report. Staff members
are currently doing research on the performance of housing start forecasts; the determinants of regional
forecasting errors; the merging of short- and long-range forecasts; and local fiscal policies.

The Survey Program conducts monthly telephone surveys of approximately 500 Floridians. Data from
these surveys are used both for academic research and to create a consumer confidence index for Florida.
The Survey Program also conducts customized surveys that are independent of the regular monthly
survey. These surveys permit us to greatly expand our level of service and collect a great deal of valuable
data for faculty members, state and local government agencies, and Florida businesses. During the past
year, clients have included the Department of Elder Affairs, Department of Corrections, Public Service
Commission, Agency for Health Care Administration, the National Institutes of Health, and various
colleges or departments at the University of Florida, Florida State University, Vanderbilt University, and
the University of North Florida. These surveys not only collected a great deal of policy-relevant data, but
also generated gross revenues of $472,000 in 1998-1999. Members of the Survey Program had one article
published in an academic journal, presented two papers at professional meetings, and made two
presentations to groups in Florida. Chris McCarty is currently serving as Principal Investigator on a
National Science Foundation grant to study social networks. Research in progress focuses on the
estimation of network size and the development of data infrastructure in Africa. A recent expansion in the
number of work stations in the Survey Lab will make it possible to take on more and larger projects in the
future.

The Policy Studies Program continued its analysis of the Florida Price of Living Index (FPLI), which
guides the allocation of funds to the state's 67 school districts. The FPLI is the most thorough county-by-
county price index found in any state. This year the study focused on: 1) Replacing the on-site price
survey with a more efficient telephone survey, 2) Using the Florida portion of the national wage survey to
replace or supplement the current form of the FPLI, and 3) Working with the Department of Revenue to
enhance the housing data used in constructing the FPLI. Staff members published two articles and three
book reviews in academic journals, refereed two articles for academic journals, and made 14 presentations
on the Florida economy to a variety of government, civic, and business groups around the state. Current
research projects include the causes of reduced government regulation, hedonic models of apartment
rents, and the effectiveness of increased spending on K-12 education.

The Information/Publication Services Program published eight serial volumes during the past year:
1998 Florida Statistical Abstract, 1998 County Rankings, 1998 Florida County Perspective, 1998
Florida Personal Income Handbook, 1999 Florida and the Nation, 1999 Housing Starts and









Permits, Building Permit Activity Report, and Gross and Taxable Sales. New CD formats were
introduced for several of these volumes. During the past year, staff members redesigned the BEBR's
web site, fielded more than 5,000 information calls, and provided editorial and marketing services for other
BEBR publications and products. Staff members were active in professional organizations such as the
University of Florida Communications Network and the Association for University Business and Economic
Research (AUBER), serving the latter as panelist and session coordinator at the annual conference and
writing articles for its newsletter. Eve Irwin was appointed as a member of the AUBER Board of
Directors for 1999-2003

The Administrative Services Program provided the background support that held the BEBR together,
making it possible for staff members in the other programs to do their work. Administrative staff
members managed the BEBR budget, tracked all revenues and expenditures, maintained and upgraded
office facilities and equipment, provided technical support for all computer and network programs,
maintained personnel files and appointments, handled orders and shipments of BEBR publications,
provided oversight for compliance with University rules and regulations, and performed many other
essential office tasks. Special accomplishments during the past year included a renovation of the offices in
Matherly 225, the addition and configuration of 16 new work stations for the Survey Lab, and an upgrade
of the email system.

The following tables provide a quick overview and summary of the BEBR's activities and output during
the past year. For additional information on our products, services, and research activities, check out our
website at www.bebr.ufl.edu or give us a call at (352) 392-0171.








Bureau of Economic and Business Research
June 1999

Director/Professor
Smith
842070


Research Programs


Survey Policy Studies Forecastng


.50 FTE .50 FTE
Graduate Student Graduate Student


I
Administrative Services

I
Program Director/
Coordinator Computer Applications
Collins
839900


I
Information/Publication Services

I
Program Director/
Coordinator Computer Applications
Galvez
841010


I I I
Office Accountant Program
Manager Rose Assistant
Fletcher 820890 Middleton
839910 806600



2 1
Student Student
Assistants Assistant


I
Senior Arts &
Pub Production
Specialist
Evans
807900


I I I
Coordinator Info/ Coordinator Info/ Coordinator Info/
Publication Services Publication Services Publication Services
McLarty Floyd Irwin
997320/938960 997310 997300


Population


Operations
I









Table 1. Academic/Professional Publications, 1998-99


Denslow, David

"The Real Wage, Output, and Contracting in High Inflation," Economic Review, 1999
(forthcoming), co-author.

Book review of Alan Dye, "Cuban Sugar in the Age of Mass Production," Business History
Review, Winter, 645-647, 1998.

Book review of Adriana Amado, "Disparate Regional Development in Brazil," Luso-Brazilian
Review, November, 371-372, 1999.


Dewey, Jim

"The Ineffectiveness of School Inputs: A Product of Misspecification?," Economics of Education
Review (forthcoming), co-author.

Book review of Wemer Troesken, "Why Regulate Utilities," Public Choice, 98: 470-473, 1999.

Lenze, David

"An Evaluation of Ex Ante Substate Long-term Forecast Accuracy and Efficiency," International
Regional Science Review (forthcoming).

Mease, Ken

"Foreign Aid Agencies 1965-1995: A Comparative Assessment," in Goran Hyden & Rwekaza
Mukandala, eds. Foreign Aid: Comparing China, Sweden, and the United States 1965-
1995, Macmillan, London, 1999, co-author.

Nogle, June

"Settlement Assistance and Intermarriage for Immigrants to Canada," Immigrants and
Minorities, 17(2): 23-35, 1998.

Smith, Stanley K

"In Defense of the Net Migrant," Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, 24, 1999,
(forthcoming), co-author.











Table 1. Academic/Professional Publications, 1998-99
(continued)

"Population Growth and Demographic Change in Florida," in Lance de Haven Smith and David
Colbum, eds. Amid Political, Cultural and Civic Diversity: Building a Sense of Statewide
Community in Florida. Dubuque, Kendall-Hunt, 1998.

Measuring a Changing Nation: Modern Methods for the 2000 Census, National Academy
Press, Washington, DC, 1999, co-author.

West, Carol

"Regional Housing Start Forecast Performance," Review of Regional Studies, (forthcoming), co-
author.

The Impacts of Natural Disasters: A Framework for Loss Estimation, National Academy
Press, Washington DC, 1999, co-author.











Table 2. Technical/Analytical/Data Publications, 1998-99


Cody, Scott

"Number of Households and Average Household Size in Florida and Its Counties: April 1, 1999,"
Population Studies, No. 122 (January 1999), co-author.

Florida Estimates ofPopulation: April 1, 1998 (February 1999), co-author.

Denslow, David

"The Florida Price Level Index," report prepared for the Florida Department of Education
(January 1999), co-author.

Dewey, Jim

"The Florida Price Level Index," report prepared for the Florida Department of Education (January
1999), co-author.

"The Impact of Dropping Transportable Commodities from the FPLI," preliminary report for the
Florida Department of Education (April 1999).

Floyd, Susan

The Florida Personal Income Handbook (August 1998), editor.

1998 Florida Statistical Abstract (October 1998), editor.

Florida County Rankings, 1998 (January 1999), editor.

"Getting the Most From Your State Abstract," AUBER Newsletter (March 1999).

Florida and the Nation, 1999 (April 1999), editor.

Galvez, Janet

1998 Florida Statistical Abstract (October 1998), editor.

County Perspective, 1998 (February 1999), editor.











Table 2. Technical/Analytical/Data Publications, 1998-99
(continued)

"Florida Economic Review," Concrete Market Update and Economic Review (lst-4th quarter
1998), co-author.

Gross and Taxable Sales Reports, monthly and annual editions (1998-99), editor.

Building Permit Activity in Florida, monthly and annual editions (1998-99), editor.

Florida County Rankings, 1998 (January 1999), editor.

Florida and the Nation, 1999 (April 1999), editor.

Housing Starts, annual edition (1998), editor.

Irwin, Eve

1998 Florida Statistical Abstract (October 1998), managing editor.

Florida County Rankings, 1998 (January 1999), managing editor.

County Perspective, 1998 (February 1999), editor.

Florida and the Nation, 1999 (April 1999), managing editor.

Lenze, David

The Florida Long-term Economic Forecast, Vol. 1, State and MSAs, (1998), co-author.

The Florida Long-term Economic Forecast, Vol. 2, State and Counties, (1998), co-author.

"National Economic Review," Concrete Market Update and Economic Review (1st 4th quarter
1998).

McLarty, Carol

Building Permit Activity in Florida, monthly and annual editions (1998-99), editor.

Gross and Taxable Sales Reports, monthly and annual editions (1998-99), editor.











Table 2. Technical/Analytical/Data Publications, 1998-99
(continued)


Nogle, June

"Population Projections by Age, Sex and Race for Florida and its Counties, 1997-2010," Florida
Population Studies, No. 121 (July 1998), co-author.

"Projections of Florida Population by County, 1998-2020," Florida Population Studies, No. 123
(January 1999), co-author.

Smith, Stanley K

"Population Projections by Age, Sex and Race for Florida and its Counties, 1997-2010," Florida
Population Studies, No. 121 (July 1998), co-author.

"Projections of Florida Population by County, 1998-2020," Florida Population Studies, No. 123
(January 1999), co-author.

"Number of Households and Average Household Size in Florida and Its Counties: April 1, 1998,"
Population Studies, No. 122 (January 1999), co-author.

Florida Estimates ofPopulation: April 1, 1998 (February 1999), co-author.

West, Carol

The Florida Long-term Economic Forecast, Vol. 1, State and MSAs, (1998), co-author.

The Florida Long-term Economic Forecast, Vol. 2, State and Counties, (1998), co-author.

"Florida Economic Review," Concrete Market Update and Economic Review (lst 4th quarter
1998).











Table 3. Papers Presented at Academic/Professional Meetings, 1998-99


Denslow, David

"Teaching Large Classes," Stanford University Conference on Teaching, Palo Alto, CA, December
1998.

Lenze, David

"An Evaluation of Ex Ante Substate Long-term Economic Forecast Accuracy and Efficiency,"
North American Regional Science Association International Meeting, Santa Fe, New Mexico,
November 1998.

McCarty, Chris

"Comparing Two Different Methods of Estimating Network Size," International Social Network
Meeting, Barcelona, July 1998.

"Transmission Effects in Estimating Network Size," Sunbelt Social Network Conference,
Charleston, February 1999.

Nogle, June

"Population Data Resources at the University of Florida's Bureau of Economic and Business
Research," Florida Epidemiology Association Meeting, Tallahassee, July 1998.

"Women's Labor Force Participation Among Five Hispanic Immigrant Groups," Population
Association of America Meeting, New York City, March 1999, co-author.

"Immigrants and Nonimmigrants in Florida and Metropolitan Miami," Association of American
Geographers Meeting, Honolulu, March 1999, co-author.

"Two Examples of Using StataTM for Demographic Analysis," Federal-State Cooperative Program
Meeting, New York City, March 1999.

Smith, Stanley K

"Responding to a Budget Crunch: Staying Alive in the 90s," AUBER Conference, Portland, ME,
October 1998.











Table 4. Presentations to Civic/Government/Business Groups, 1998-99


Denslow, David

"Land-Use Demand in Florida," Florida Forestry Association, Panama City, September 1998.

"National Economic Outlook," WLUS, Gainesville, October 1998.

"Jacksonville Economic Outlook," North Jacksonville Development Council, Jacksonville, October
1998.

"Economic Outlook," Minority Business Society, Gainesville, October 1998.

"National Outlook," Florida Elks Charity Investment Committee, Gainesville, October 1998.

"Ocala Economic Outlook," Ocala Economic Development Council, Ocala, January 1999.

"National Economic Outlook," Cultural Marble Society, St. Petersburg, January 1999.

"Polk County Economic Outlook," Lakeland Outlook Breakfast, Lakeland, January 1999.

"National Economic Outlook," Florida Institute of CPA's, Tampa, February 1999.

"Florida Economic Outlook," Mortgage Bankers Association, Jacksonville, February 1999.

"Florida Economic Outlook," DIS Advisory Board, Gainesville, March 1999.

"Florida Economic Outlook," Florida Real Estate Conference, Miami, April 1999.

"Bradenton Economic Outlook," Bradenton Kiwanis, Bradenton, April 1999.

Lenze, David

"What's Down the Road? An Economic Forecast for Citrus County 1995-2010," 1998
Leadership Citrus Program, Crystal River, June 1998.

"The Long-Term Outlook for the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater MSA, 1995-2010," Sertoma
Club, Tampa, June 1998.











Table 4. Presentations to Civic/Government/Business Groups, 1998-99
(continued)


"The Long-Term Outlook for the Jacksonville MSA, 1995-2010," Southside Businessmen's
Association, Jacksonville, October 1998.

"Economic Update: Nation, State, and Florida Concrete Products Association Regions," Florida
Concrete Products Association, Orlando, October 1998.

"The Economic Outlook for the Ocala MSA, 1995-2010, Ocala/Marion County Chamber of
Commerce, Ocala, April 1999.

McCarty, Chris

"Survey on Affordability of Local Telephone Rates," Public Service Commission, Tallahassee,
September 1998.

"CATI Survey Methodology," Technical Advisory and Policy Advisory Panels for the Florida
Survey of Uninsured, Tallahassee, January 1999.

Nogle, June

"Trends and Prospects for Florida's Population, Leadership 2000 Statewide Summit, Gainesville,
October 1998.











Table 5. Contracts and Grants Awarded, 1998-99*


Denslow, David

"Florida Price of Living Index", Florida Legislature, $10,000

McCarty, Chris

Surveys conducted for:
Florida Agency for Health Care Administration $300,000
UF-Institute for Child Health Policy $52,000
Florida State University $40,000
Florida State University $26,000
National Institutes of Health $23,250
Florida Department of Elder Affairs $23,010
UF-IFAS $19,260
Florida Public Service Commission $15,000
Florida Department of Corrections $9,500
Info Tech Inc. $9,000
Florida Tourism $8,562
Gainesville Regional Utilities $7,000
National Science Foundation $6,325
Florida Department of Education $6,000
H. Russell Bernard $6,000
Florida Dept of Corrections $6,000
Florida State University $5,000
UF-Dept of Forestry $5,000
Vanderbilt University $5,000
Lee County Sheriffs Office $4,400
University of North Florida $4,000
The News Journal $3,800
Market Source Corporation $3,500
Alachua County Environmental Protection Agency $3,500
Pinellas County $3,500
Palm Beach County $3,200
UF-Dept of Forestry $2,000
UF-Food & Resource Economics $1,200
Market Source Corporation $1,100
Market Source Corporation $1,100
Florida Dept of Elder Affairs $1,000
Market Source Corporation $1,000
UF-College of Business Administration $650
Market Source Corporation $250
FSU-Collins Center for Public Policy $200
UF-Vet School $100











Table 5. Contracts and Grants, 1998-99*
(continued)

Nogle, June

"Immigration Study for Florida and Dade County," University of Miami, $26,320

Smith, Stanley K

"Florida Population Research," Florida Legislature, $246,750

West, Carol T.

"Florida Long-Run Econometric Forecasting Models," Florida Department of Labor and
Employment Security, $180,000
"Florida Concrete and Product Usage Survey," Florida Concrete and Products Association,
$31,380















*Note: These were contracts and grants awarded for the 1998-1999 fiscal year. Not all payments
were received during that 12-month period.











Table 6. Courses Taught, 1998-99


Denslow, David A.

Summer 98

Fall 98

Spring 99


Macro Principles

Macro Principles

Macro Principles


ECO 2013

ECO 2013

ECO 2013


3 credits

3 credits

3 credits


1200 students

1149 students

1994 students


McCarty, Chris

Spring 99 Social Network Analysis

Smith, Stanley K

Fall 98 Population Economics


ANT 6933 3 credits


10 students


ECP 3113 4 credits 35 students










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