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Group Title: Annual report, Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Florida
Title: Annual report
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Title: Annual report
Series Title: Annual report
Physical Description: Serial
Language: English
Creator: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, Warrington College of Business Administration, University of Florida
Publisher: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, Warrington College of Business Administration, University of Florida
Place of Publication: Gainesville, Fla.
Publication Date: 1997-1998
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Bibliographic ID: UF00091101
Volume ID: VID00002
Source Institution: University of Florida
Holding Location: University of Florida
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Bureau of Economic and Business Research
Annual Report 1997-98


June 1998







Bureau of Economic and Business Research
221 Matherly Hall
P.O. Box 117145
University of Florida
Gainesville, FL 32611-7145
Telephone: 352-392-0171
Fax: 352-392-4739
Web Site: www.cba.ufl.edu/bebr/



,- UNIVERSITY OF
W FLORIDA











Staff members, Bureau of Economic and Business Research
June 1998



Director: Stanley K. Smith, Ph.D., Professor and Program Director

Associate Director: John F. (Dick) Scoggins, Ph.D.

Forecasting Program:
Carol T. West, Ph.D., Professor and Program Director
David G. Lenze, Ph.D., Associate Program Director
Janet Galvez, M.S.

Policy Studies Program:
David A. Denslow, Ph.D., Professor and Program Director
John F. (Dick) Scoggins, Ph.D.

Population Program:
Stanley K. Smith, Ph.D., Professor and Program Director
Scott Cody, M.B.A.
June Nogle, Ph.D.

Survey Program:
Chris McCarty, Ph.D., Program Director
Ken Mease, Ph.D. (on leave)

Information/Publications Services:
John F. (Dick) Scoggins, Ph.D., Program Director
Susan Floyd, B.A.
Eve Irwin, B.A.
Carol McLarty, B.S.
Dorothy Evans

Support Staff:
Clinton B. Collins, B.S., Coordinator of Computer Services
Janet Fletcher, Office Manager
Pamela Middleton
Janet Rose, A.A.











Bureau of Economic and Business Research
Annual Report 1997-98



About the
BEBR

Founded in 1929, the Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR) is an applied research
center in the Warrington College of Business Administration at the University of Florida. Its primary
mission is to: 1) Collect, analyze, and generate economic and demographic data on Florida and its local
areas; 2) Conduct economic, demographic, and public policy research on topics of particular
importance to the state of Florida; and 3) Distribute data and research findings throughout the state and
the nation. The BEBR seeks to conduct research that is both academically sound and directly relevant
to public and private decision-makers in Florida.

The BEBR plays a number of roles within the College and the University. Its research contributes to a
deeper understanding of Florida's rapidly changing economic and demographic climate. It provides
employment and training for 3-4 graduate students and 80-100 undergraduate students each year. It
generates revenues by selling data and publications and by obtaining contracts and grants. It creates
favorable publicity for the College and University through its publications, presentations, and reference
services. Its staff members teach several courses each year in the Economics Department, and
occasionally in other departments as well. BEBR activities thus fall within the University's traditional
functions of teaching, research, and service, but the impact of those activities carries far beyond campus
boundaries.

The Year in
Review

The past year was one of the most successful ever for the BEBR. Staff members produced the usual
broad array of publications, including two new ones covering personal income and housing data by
parcel. Customized surveys were conducted for an increasing number of university departments, state
agencies, local governments, and private businesses. Staff members played active roles in a number of
professional organizations, serving on committees and presenting papers and chairing sessions at
conferences. Numerous research reports were written, articles were published in professional journals,
and presentations were made to civic, government, and business groups throughout the state. The
BEBR continued to serve as a leading source of information on Florida, answering some 600 telephone
calls and letters each month. Perhaps most important, revenues from research contracts topped $1
million, by far the most in the BEBR's history. The recovery from the budgetary problems of a few years
ago has been dramatic.













Figure 1. Estimated Revenues 1997-98
(preliminary): $1,893,755


Sale of
Products
$203,009
11%

University of
Contracts Florida
$1,077,556 $613,190
57% 32%






The BEBR's estimated gross revenues for 1997-1998 were $1,893,755, about $432,000 higher than
the previous year. This increase was the result of a substantial gain in contract revenues, primarily in the
Survey Program. Only 32% of the BEBR's revenues in 1997-1998 came from the University as part of
the College budget, compared to 50% just five years ago. Research contracts brought in 57% of total
revenues, the highest proportion ever. The sale of data and publications accounted for the remaining
11% (Figure 1). About 80% of the BEBR's budget is typically spent on wages and salaries, with the
remainder going toward capital outlays, telephone, travel, postage, computer time, and other expenses.

The BEBR currently employs eighteen full-time staff members. Three are teaching faculty with joint
appointments in the Economics Department; seven are research analysts in the Population, Forecasting,
Survey, and Policy Studies programs; four are publication specialists or coordinators of information and
publication services; and four are support personnel in office management, computing, accounting, and
secretarial positions. BEBR staff members are thoroughly trained, highly motivated, and very
productive; they represent an important human resource for the state of Florida. The BEBR's
organizational chart is shown in Figure 2.

The Population Program continued to produce the official population estimates for all cities and
counties in Florida; estimates of households and average household size for the state and each county;
and population projections by age, sex, and race for the state and each county. The program also began
collecting residential telephone customer data to use for estimating the number of households; collected
and analyzed annual migration data from the Internal Revenue Service; provided input to the population
estimates and projections programs of the U.S. Census Bureau and the Florida Consensus Estimating
Conference; developed population estimates for several newly incorporated cities; and helped several









cities conduct special censuses. As always, it provided demographic data and analysis to many
representatives of the media, government agencies, academic departments, and business organizations.

Staff members in the Population Program presented four papers at professional meetings; made two
presentations to local groups in Florida; published one article in an academic journal; wrote an article for
Florida Business Briefs; refereed two articles for academic journals; reviewed a grant proposal for the
National Science Foundation and a report for the National Research Council; served as a panel
member on the National Academy of Science's Panel on Alternative Census Methodologies;
participated in the Social Science Research Council's Program on Immigration, Integration, and
Citizenship; and served on three committees for professional organizations. Staff members are currently
doing research on the labor force participation of Hispanic immigrant women; the fiscal impact of
immigrants in Florida; net migration as a measure of population mobility; a description and analysis of
population projection methods; and the use of telephone customer data as an indicator of the number of
households in Florida.

The Forecasting Program continued to publish The Florida Long-term Economic Forecast, an
annual publication presenting economic forecasts for the state and each county for 2000, 2005, and
2010. Several enhancements were made to improve both the scope and the quality of the forecasts.
These forecasts are widely used for budgeting and planning purposes in both the public and private
sectors in Florida. The research contract with the Florida Concrete and Products Association was
renewed, improvements in the historical base data were made, and the monthly and quarterly reports
were upgraded. Staff members also completed the conversion to a new forecasting software system,
saving thousands of dollars in computing costs each year.

Late in the year we were informed that reductions in the budget of the Joint Legislative Management
Committee of The Florida Legislature had forced them to terminate their funding of the long-range
economic forecasting contract, effective June 30, 1998. We had received this contract each year since
1986 and it provided the major source of funding for the Forecasting Program; losing this contract
would put the entire program in jeopardy. Fortunately, we were able to find an alternate source of
funding for 1998-1999 from the Florida Department of Labor and Employment Security (DLES). The
short-term funding crisis has thus been averted and we are hopeful that a long-term agreement with
DLES can be worked out during the coming year.

Staff members in the Forecasting Program presented three papers and chaired two sessions at
professional meetings; made four presentations to state and local groups in Florida; wrote articles for
Florida Trend and Florida Business Briefs; refereed articles for academic journals; served on the
editorial boards of two academic journals; served as a member on the National Academy of Science's
Committee on Assessing the Costs of Natural Disasters; and served on two committees for professional
organizations. Staff members are currently doing research on the performance of housing start forecasts;
the determinants of regional forecasting errors; local fiscal policies; population growth heterogeneity and
regional income inequality; the evaluation of long-range forecast accuracy for substate areas; and
temporary migration in Florida. Two previous publications by members of the program received









Citations of Excellence from Anbar Management Intelligence, an international guide to management
journal literature.

The Survey Program conducts monthly telephone surveys of approximately 1,000 Floridians. Data
from these surveys are used to create a monthly consumer confidence index and several special
research reports. Consumer confidence press releases are picked up around the state each month and
generate a substantial amount of publicity for the College and the University. In addition to a core group
of questions asked every month, other questions are added for short periods of time to collect data on
specific topics. Faculty use the monthly survey as a vehicle for gathering data used in academic research
and state government agencies use it to collect data on the attitudes, opinions, characteristics, and
behavior of Floridians. The Survey Program also conducts customized surveys that are independent of
the regular monthly survey. These customized surveys permit us to greatly expand our level of service
and collect a great deal of valuable data for faculty members, state and local government agencies, and
Florida businesses.

The past year has been the most successful ever for the Survey Program, both in terms of generating
revenue and increasing its visibility throughout the University and the state of Florida. The program
conducted surveys for the Florida Agency for Health Care Administration, Commission on Tourism,
Chamber of Commerce, Department of Corrections, and Public Service Commission; the St. John's
Water Management District; the James Madison Institute; the Department of Anthropology,
Department of Food and Resource Economics, College of Journalism, and Office of the Provost at the
University of Florida; and several local governments and private companies. These surveys not only
collected a great deal of policy-relevant data, but also generated gross revenues in excess of $520,000,
helping cover many of the BEBR's total expenses. Members of the Survey Program had one article
published in an academic journal; served as co-Principal Investigator on a National Science Foundation
grant; and served as a consultant on a survey project in the Republic of Ghana. Research is currently in
progress on estimating network size and the development of data infrastructure in Africa.

The Policy Studies Program continued its analysis of the Florida Price of Living Index (FPLI), which
guides the allocation of funds to the state's 67 school districts. The FPLI is the most thorough
county-by-county price index found in any state. This year the study focused on: 1) Whether the funds
currently used for surveying prices in each county are being used as efficiently as possible, 2) The
possibility of using new sources of Web-based data for estimating apartment rents, and 3) How the
calculation of land prices for housing could be revised. The Policy Studies Program is also working with
the College of Education to assess the impact of a program sponsored by the Chamber of Commerce
that seeks to encourage Florida's business leaders to become involved with the governance of local
school districts.

Staff members in the Policy Studies Program published an article and a book review in academic
journals; refereed two articles for academic journals; edited and wrote numerous articles for Florida
Business Briefs; and made 11 presentations on the Florida economy to a variety of government, civic,
and business groups around the state. Current research projects include the links among wages, output,
and contracts under conditions of high inflation.










The Information/Publication Services Program launched two new products this year. The first was
the Florida Personal Income Handbook, a compilation of data provided by the U.S. Bureau of
Economic Analysis, which highlights the components of personal income for Florida and its counties and
metropolitan areas. The second was a large edited computer file of real property data for every county
in the state. This file is a set of five compact disks containing the property value, owner's address, and
sales information for over 8 million parcels in Florida. We believe both these products will prove to be
very useful to a wide variety of data users. Information/Publication Services staff members continued to
publish the Florida Statistical Abstract, the leading source of information on the state of Florida;
produce and distribute several other BEBR publications; and answer hundreds of informational calls
each month.

The following figures and tables provide a quick overview and summary of the BEBR's activities and
output during the past year. For additional information on our products, services, and research activities,
give us a call at (352) 392-0171.











Figure 2. Organizational Chart, Bureau of Economic and Business Research
June 1998


OPERATIONS


ADMINISTRATIVE SUPPORT
I


I
INFORMATION/PUBLICATIONS
I


I
Senior Arts &
Publications
Production
Specialist
Evans
807900




8


Coordinator
Information/
Publication
Services
McLarty
997320/
938960


1
Student
Assistant


Accountant
Rose
820890


Office
Manager
Fletcher
839910






2
Student
Assistant


Program
Assistant
Middleton
806600






1
Student
Assistant


Coordinator
Information/
Publication
Services
Floyd
997310



2
Student
Assistant


Coordinator
Information/
Publication
Services
Irwin
997300









Table 1. Academic/Professional Publications, 1997-98


Denslow, David

"The Impact of Labor Contracts: Evidence from Brazil," Economic Inquiry, (forthcoming),
coauthor.

Book review of Alan Blinder, "Asking About Prices," Sninlhi In Economic Journal, (forthcoming).

McCarty, Chris

"A Social Network Approach to Estimating Seroprevalence in the United States," Evaluation
Review 22, 1998, coauthor.

Nogle, June

"An Experimental Methodology for Estimating Hispanic Population Residents for States and
Counties," Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, 23, 1997, coauthor.

Smith, Stanley K

"An Experimental Methodology for Estimating Hispanic Population Residents for States and
Counties, Journal of Economic and SocialMeasurement, 23, 1997, coauthor.











Table 2. Technical/Analytical/Data Publications, 1997-98


Cody, Scott
"Number of Households and Average Household Size in Florida and Its Counties: April 1, 1997,"
Population Studies, No. 119 (January 1998), coauthor.

Florida Estimates ofPopulation: April 1, 1997 (February 1998), coauthor.

Denslow, David
"The Housing Component of the Florida Price of Living Index," report prepared for The Florida
Legislature (June 1998), coauthor.

Floyd, Susan
1997 Florida Statistical Abstract (October 1997), editor.

"Employment by Industry in Florida," Florida Business Briefs (November 1997).

Florida County Rankings, 1997 (March 1998), editor.

County Perspective, 1997 (March 1998), section editor.

The Florida Personal Income Handbook (March 1998), editor.

Florida and the Nation, 1998 (June 1998), editor.

Galvez, Janet
"Florida Snowbirds: Who are They," Florida Business Briefs (May 1997).

"Florida Economy Elusive Snowbirds, "Florida Trend (October 1997).

"Florida Economic Review," Concrete Market Update and Economic Review (1st 4th quarter
1997).

Irwin, Eve
1997 Florida Statistical Abstract (October 1997), managing editor.

Florida County Rankings, 1997 (March 1998), managing editor.

County Perspective, 1997 (March 1998), editor.

Florida and the Nation, 1998 (June 1998), managing editor.











Table 2. Technical/Analytical/Data Publications, 1997-98
(continued)


Lenze, David
The Florida Long-term Economic Forecast, Vol. 1 & 2 (1997), coauthor.

"National Economic Review," Concrete Market Update and Economic Review (1st 4th quarter
1997).

McLarty, Carol
Florida Business Briefs, monthly (May 1997 March 1998), assistant editor.

Building Permit Activity in Florida, monthly and annual editions (1997-98), editor.

Gross and Taxable Sales Reports, monthly and annual editions (1997-98), editor.

Nogle, June
"Population Projections by Age, Sex and Race for Florida and its Counties, 1996-2010," Florida
Population Studies, No. 118 (July 1997), coauthor.

"Projections of Florida Population by County, 1997-2020," Florida Population Studies, No. 120
(January 1998), coauthor.

"Current BEBR Population Studies," Florida Business Briefs (March 1998).

Scoggins, John F. (Dick)
Florida Business Briefs, monthly (June 1997 March 1998), editor and coauthor.

Smith, Stanley K
"Population Projections by Age, Sex and Race for Florida and its Counties, 1996-2010," Florida
Population Studies, No. 118 (July 1997), coauthor.

"Projections of Florida Population by County, 1997-2020," Florida Population Studies, No. 120
(January 1998), coauthor.

"Number of Households and Average Household Size in Florida and Its Counties: April 1, 1997,"
Population Studies, No. 119 (January 1998), coauthor.

Florida Estimates ofPopulation: April 1, 1997 (February 1998), coauthor.











Table 2. Technical/Analytical/Data Publications, 1997-98
(continued)



West, Carol
Florida Economic Review, Concrete Market Update and Economic Review ( st 4th quarter
1997).

The Florida Long-term Economic Forecast, Vol. 1 and 2 (1997), coauthor.











Table 3. Papers Presented at Academic/Professional Meetings, 1997-98


Lenze, David

"An Evaluation of Ex Ante Substate Long-term Economic Forecast Accuracy and Efficiency,"
Southern Regional Science Association Meetings, Savannah, Georgia, April 1998.

Nogle, June

"High School Graduation of Immigrant and Second Generation Youths in the United States, 1992,"
Summer Institute on Immigration, Integration and Citizenship in Advanced Industrialized
Democracies, Humboldt University, Berlin, July 1997.

"An Experimental Methodology for Estimating Hispanic Residents for States and Counties,"
Southern Demographic Association Meeting, Orlando, September 1997, coauthor.

"Intemal Migration of Elderly Foreign-born in the United States," Third Colorado Conference on
Elderly Migration, Estes Park, Colorado, October 1997.

"Secondary Migration of Immigrants: Patterns and Characteristics," Federal-State Cooperative
Program Meeting, Washington, DC, April 1998.

Smith, Stanley K

"An Experimental. Methodology for Estimating Hispanic Residents for States and Counties,"
Southern Demographic Association Meeting, Orlando, September 1997,coauthor.

West, Carol

"Regional Determinants of Regional Forecasting Errors," Pacific Regional Science Association, New
Zealand, November 1997.

"Regional Determinants of Regional Forecasting Errors," Southern Regional Science Association,
Savannah, Georgia, April 1998.











Table 4. Presentations to Civic/Government/Business Groups, 1997-98


Denslow, David

"Southwest Florida Economic Outlook", Southwest Florida Chamber of Commerce, Naples,
November 1997.

"Florida Labor Market", Florida Chamber of Commerce, Orlando, December 1997.

"Jacksonville Economic Outlook", Jacksonville Downtown Kiwanis, Jacksonville, December 1997.

"Polk County Economic Outlook", Lakeland Outlook Breakfast, Lakeland, January 1998.

"Housing Component of Florida Price of Living Index", House Education Committee, Tallahassee,
February 1998.

"Florida Real Estate Outlook", Miami Real Estate Conference, Miami, February 1998.

"Ocala Economic Outlook", Ocala, February 1998.

"Florida Economic Outlook", Tampa Accounting Group, Tampa, February 1998.

"Ocala Economic Outlook", Ocala, March 1998.

"National Economic Outlook", DIS Advisory Council, Gainesville, April 1998.

"National Economic Outlook", Gainesville Accounting Group, Gainesville, April 1998.

Floyd, Susan

"Economic Sources of Information", Regional Economic Information Network (REIN), St.
Petersburg, November 1997.

Lenze, David

"What's Down the Road? An Economic Forecast for Citrus County 1995-2010," 1997 Leadership
Citrus Program Economic Overview Session, Homosassa Springs, June 1997.

"The Long-term Economic Outlook for the Ocala MSA, 1995-2010," Kiwanis Club, Ocala,
August 1997.











Table 4. Presentations to Civic/Government/Business Groups, 1997-98
(continued)


Smith, Stanley K

"Methodology of Population Projections", Regional Population Projections Workshop, Winter
Park, June 1997.

"Issues in the 2000 Census", Regional Economic Information Network, Tampa, January 1998.

West, Carol

"Market Outlook", Florida Concrete and Products Association, Orlando, October 1997.

"Florida Demographic and Economic Growth in the Next Century", Governor's Council for a
Sustainable Florida, Tallahassee, February 1998.











Table 5. Contracts and Grants, 1997-98


Denslow, David

"Florida Price of Living Index", Florida Legislature, $60,000

McCarty, Chris

Agency for Health Care Administration, $407,657
St. John's Water Management District, $24,750
BellSouth, $15,000
InfoTech, $14,256
Florida Commission on Tourism, $12,000
Department of Anthropology, $9,154
Department of Corrections, $6,578
Gainesville Regional Utilities, $6,200
Department of Corrections, $5,400
City of Gainesville, $5,000
Food and Resource Economics, $3,500
Indian River County, $3,000
James Madison Institute, $3,000
Office of the Provost, $3,000
Ketchum Public Relations, $1,634
Public Service Commission, $1,500
Food and Resource Economics, $1,200
James Adams/NSF, $1,080

Smith, Stanley K

"Florida Population Research," Florida Legislature, $249,133

West, Carol T.

"Florida Long-Run Econometric Forecasting Models," Florida Legislature, $206,234
"Concrete Market Monitoring Model," Florida Concrete and Products Association, $38,280











Table 6. Courses Taught, 1997-98


Denslow, David A.


Macro Principles
Macro Principles
Macro Principles
Macro Principles


ECO 2013
ECO 2013
ECO 2013
ECO 2013


97 Population Economics ECP 3113


Forecasting
Managerial Economics
Managerial Economics


ECO 4431
ECO 3100
ECO 3100


3 credits
3 credits
3 credits
3 credits


4 credits


4 credits
4 credits
4 credits


150 students
200 students
1700 students
1200 students


26 students


19 students
35 students
22 students


Summer A
Summer B
Fall
Spring


Smith, Stanley K.


West, Carol T.


Fall
Spring
Spring










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