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Title: Annual report
Physical Description: Serial
Language: English
Creator: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, Warrington College of Business Administration, University of Florida
Publisher: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, Warrington College of Business Administration, University of Florida
Place of Publication: Gainesville, Fla.
Creation Date: 1997
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Table of Contents
    Front Cover
        Front Cover
    Preface
        Page i
        Page ii
    Main
        Page 1
        Page 2
        Page 3
        Page 4
        Page 5
        Page 6
        Page 7
        Page 8
        Page 9
        Page 10
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        Page 12
        Page 13
        Page 14
        Page 15
        Page 16
        Page 17
Full Text









Bureau of Economic and Business Research
Annual Report 1996-97









June 1997










Bureau of Economic and Business Research
221 Matherly Hall
P.O. Box 117145
University of Florida
Gainesville, FL 32611-7145
Telephone: 352-392-0171
Fax: 352-392-4739
Web Site: www.cba.ufl.edu/bebr


UNIVERSITY OF
FLORIDA


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Bureau of Economic and Business Research
Annual Report 1996-97



About the
BEBR

Founded in 1929, the Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR) is an applied research
center in the College of Business Administration at the University of Florida. Its primary mission is to:
1) Collect, analyze, and generate economic and demographic data on Florida and its local areas; 2)
Conduct economic, demographic, and public policy research on topics of particular importance to the
state of Florida; and 3) Distribute data and research findings throughout the University, the state, and the
nation. The BEBR seeks to conduct research that is both academically sound and directly relevant to
public and private decision-makers in Florida.

The BEBR plays a number of roles within the College and the University. Its research contributes to a
deeper understanding of Florida's rapidly changing economic and demographic climate. It provides
employment and training for 2-4 graduate students and 70-80 undergraduate students each year. It
generates revenues by selling data and publications and by obtaining contracts and grants. It creates
favorable publicity for the College and University through its publications, presentations, and reference
services. Its staff members teach several courses each year in the Economics Department, and
occasionally in other departments as well. BEBR activities thus fall within the University's traditional
functions of teaching, research, and service, but the impact of those activities carries far beyond campus
boundaries.

The BEBR currently employs eighteen full-time staff members. Three are teaching faculty with joint
appointments in the Economics Department; seven are research analysts in the Population, Forecasting,
Survey, and Policy Studies programs; four are publication specialists or coordinators of information and
publication services; and four are support personnel in office management, computing, accounting, and
secretarial positions. BEBR staff members are thoroughly trained, highly motivated, and very
productive; they represent an important human resource for the state of Florida. The BEBR's
organizational chart is shown in Figure 1.

The BEBR's estimated revenues for 1996-97 were $1,461,594, about $255,000 lower than the
previous year. This decline was primarily the result of cuts in the BEBR's share of the College budget.
Only 43% of the BEBR's revenues in 1996-97 came from the University as part of the College budget,
compared to 50% just four years ago. Another 43% came from outside research contracts and 14%
from the sale of data and publications (Figure 2). About 80% of the BEBR's budget is typically spent
on wages and salaries, with the remainder going toward capital outlays, telephone, travel, postage,
computer time, and other expenses.









Figure 1. Organizational Chart, Bureau of Economic and Business Research


I
POPULATION


I
SURVEY


I
ADMINISTRATIVE SUPPORT
I


.1


INFORMATION/PUBLICATIONS
I


I
Senior Arts &
Publications
Production
Specialist
Evans
807900


Coordinator
Information/
Publication
Services
McLarty
997320/
938960


1
Student
Assistant


Accountant
Rose
820890


Office
Manager
Fletcher
839910





2
Student
Assistant


Program
Assistant
Middleton
806600





1
Student
Assistant


Coordinator
Information/
Publication
Services
Floyd
997310



2
Student
Assistant


Coordinator
Information/
Publication
Services
Irwin
997300










Figure 2. Estimated Revenues 1996-97
(preliminary): $1,461,594


University of
Contracts
Florida $626,367
$630,227 42.9%
43.1% 4



Sale of Products
$205,000
14.0%


The Year in
Review


The past year was one of downsizing and consolidation in the BEBR. There was a loss of two staff
positions and one major research product: the short-term economic forecasts produced quarterly for
Florida and its metropolitan areas. Several positions were redefined and several staff members took on
new duties and responsibilities. At the same time, several new projects were begun and new products
were added. We believe the BEBR will continue to adapt to a changing economic and political
environment and will continue to make important research contributions to the College, the University,
and the State of Florida.

The Population Program again produced the official population estimates for all cities and counties in
Florida; estimates of households and average household size for the state and each county; and
population projections by age, sex, and race for the state and each county. It produced the first-ever
set of estimates of the Hispanic population of Florida and each of its counties, by age, sex, and race.
This is a product for which there had been a great deal of demand, and it fills a critical gap in the
availability of Florida demographic data. The program also made improvements in the collection of
mobile home and electric customer data; collected and analyzed annual migration data from the Internal
Revenue Service; provided input to the population estimates and/or projections programs of the U.S.
Census Bureau and the Florida Consensus Estimating Conference; developed population estimates for
several newly incorporated cities; and helped several cities conduct special censuses. As always, it
provided demographic data and analysis to many representatives of the media, government agencies,
academic departments, and business organizations.

Staff members in the Population Program presented six papers at professional meetings; had two
articles accepted for publication in academic journals; refereed four articles for academic journals and a
grant proposal for the National Science Foundation; taught a course in the Economics Department;
served as a panel member on the National Academy of Sciences' Panel on Alternative Census
Methodologies; and participated in the Social Science Research Council's Program on Immigration,
Integration, and Citizenship.










Significant changes occurred in the Forecasting Program during the past year. Two staff members left
the BEBR to take positions elsewhere. As a result of budget cuts and these staff departures, the
decision was made to cease production of The Florida Outlook, a quarterly publication presenting
short-term economic forecasts for the nation, the state, and metropolitan areas in Florida. This was a
difficult decision to make because the Outlook had been an important BEBR publication for twenty
years. The Forecasting Program continued to produce The Florida Long-term Economic Forecast,
an annual publication presenting five-, ten-, and fifteen-year economic forecasts for the state and each
county. These forecasts are widely used for budgeting and planning purposes in both the public and
private sectors in Florida. Staff members largely completed the conversion to a new forecasting
software system, which will save thousands of dollars in computing costs each year. The Forecasting
Program also brought in a large contract with the Florida Concrete and Products Association to
conduct monthly surveys of cement and concrete production and usage in Florida and to report on
general business indicators for regions of the state.

Staff members in the Forecasting Program presented four papers at professional meetings; had four
articles accepted for publication in academic journals, business magazines, or conference proceedings;
taught a course in the Economics Department; served on the editorial boards of two academic journals;
made several presentations on the Florida economy to groups throughout the state; and participated in
the Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology.

The Survey Program conducts a monthly telephone survey of approximately 1,000 Floridians. This
survey generates a monthly consumer confidence index and several special research reports. In addition
to a core group of questions asked every month, other questions are added for short periods of time to
collect data on specific topics. Faculty use this survey as a vehicle for gathering data used in academic
research; recent topics have included the acquisition of life insurance and the determinants of gift-giving
behavior. State government agencies use the survey to collect data on the attitudes, opinions,
characteristics, and behavior of Floridians. During the past year, the Department of Corrections,
Department of Environmental Regulation, and the Florida Commission on Tourism used the monthly
survey to collect data relevant to their operations. Questions added to the regular monthly survey are
often funded by the interested client or agency.

The Survey Program also conducts customized surveys that are independent of the regular monthly
survey. In the past year, these have included a survey of all apartment complexes in Florida to estimate
average rents; a survey of Floridians about their awareness of beach erosion and the preservation of
loggerhead turtle nesting grounds; and a survey of Medicaid recipients to determine why dental services
are under-utilized. These customized surveys--in combination with add-ons to the regular monthly
survey--generated more than $75,000 in revenue in 1996-1997 and provided valuable data to faculty,
state agencies, and Florida businesses. During the past year, members of the Survey Program
presented a paper at a professional meeting; had two articles accepted for publication in academic
journals; and taught two courses in the Marketing Department.









The Policy Studies Program is approaching the final year of a four-year study of the Florida Price of
Living Index (FPLI), which guides the allocation of funds to the state's school districts. The FPLI is the
most thorough county-by-county price index found in any state. This year the study focused on
apartment rents, using data gathered by the Survey Program from over 3,000 apartment complexes
containing nearly half a million units; and on residential land values, using data collected by a private firm
from nearly all 67 county property appraisers. As a by-product of this analysis, we have come to the
conclusion that the BEBR could construct the FPLI at a lower cost to the State of Florida than it is
currently paying. We are currently exploring this possibility, believing that combining data-gathering and
theoretical-analysis functions within a single organization would offer opportunities for improving the
accuracy of the index while reducing its cost.

Staff members in the Policy Studies Program are working with the Florida Commission on
Governmental Accountability to the People (GAP) to improve the indicators used to measure the state's
economic well-being and quality of life. The purpose of this project is to give state and local
governments quantifiable targets for measuring their success in responding to the needs of the state's
citizens. In the past year staff members in the Policy Studies Program had one book chapter accepted
for publication; refereed three articles for academic journals; taught three courses in the Economics
Department; and made numerous presentations on the Florida economy to groups throughout the state.

The Information/Publication Services Program launched two new publications this year. Florida
and the Nation is an annual statistical comparison of Florida with other states on subjects such as
population, housing, education, income, employment, crime, and tourism. Florida Business Briefs is a
monthly newsletter featuring survey data, research results, and recent economic developments which are
important to Florida businesses. Perhaps the major accomplishment of the Information/Publication
Services Program this year was the initiation of an in-house system of publication, marketing, and
shipping for the Florida Statistical Abstract, the most comprehensive source of statistical information
on the state. This was a major undertaking, but one which will make the publication process more
efficient and timely and will lead to savings of thousands of dollars each year. Staff members continued
to produce and distribute several other BEBR publications and to answer hundreds of informational
calls each month.

The following tables provide a quick overview and summary of the BEBR's activities and output during
the past year. For additional information on our products, services, and research activities, give us a call
at (352) 392-0171.











Staff members, Bureau of Economic and Business Research
June 1997


Director: Stanley K. Smith, Ph.D., Professor and Program Director

Associate Director: John F. (Dick) Scoggins, Ph.D.

Forecasting Program:
Carol T. West, Ph.D., Professor and Program Director
David G. Lenze, Ph.D., Associate Program Director
Janet Galvez, M. S.

Policy Studies Program:
David A. Denslow, Ph.D., Professor and Program Director
John F. (Dick) Scoggins, Ph.D.

Population Program:
Stanley K. Smith, Ph.D., Professor and Program Director
Scott Cody, M.B.A.
June Nogle, A.B.D.

Survey Program:
Chris McCarty, Ph.D., Program Director
Ken Mease, Ph.D.

Information/Publications Services:
John F. (Dick) Scoggins, Ph.D., Director
Susan Floyd, B.A.
Eve Irwin, B.A.
Carol McLarty, B.S.
Dorothy Evans

Support Staff:
Clinton B. Collins, B.S., Coordinator of Computer Services
Janet Fletcher, Office Manager
Pamela Middleton
Janet Rose, A.A.











Table 1. Academic/Professional Publications, 1996-97


Lenze, David

"Dynamic and Spatial Impact of Hurricane Andrew on Florida's Taxable Sales: An Intervention
Analysis," Review ofRegional Studies, (forthcoming).

McCarty, Chris

"Eliciting Representative Samples of Personal Networks," Social Networks (forthcoming),
coauthor.

"Estimation of Seroprevalence, Rape and Homelessness in the U.S. Using a Social Network
Approach," Social Networks (forthcoming), coauthor.

Nogle, June

"The Impact of Foreign-bor Internal Migration on States' Immigrant Populations," International
Journal ofPopulation Geography (forthcoming).

Scoggins, John F. (Dick)

"Do Baseball Arbitrators Simply Flip A Coin?," Baseball Economics, Praeger Publishers:
Westport, CT (1996), pp. 101-110, coauthor.

Smith, Stanley K

"Further Thoughts on Simplicity and Complexity in Population Projection Models," International
Journal of Forecasting (forthcoming).

West, Carol T.

"The Next Big Blow," Florida Trend, July (1996), pp. 18-21.

"Indirect Economic Impacts of Natural Disasters: Policy Implications of Recent Research and
Experience," Proceedings of the Conference on Analyzing Economic Impacts and
Recovery from Urban Eai ithlqu, ke, Issues for Policy Makers, sponsored by Earthquake
Engineering Research Institute and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (1996).

"Lessons from the Glass Ceiling and the Black Box," Review of Regional Studies, Vol. 27 (1997)
(forthcoming).












Table 2. Technical/Analytical/Data Publications, 1996-97


Cody, Scott
Florida Estimates ofPopulation: April 1, 1996 (February 1997), coauthor.

"Number of Households and Average Household Size in Florida and Its Counties: April 1, 1996,"
Florida Population Studies, No. 116 (January 1997), coauthor.

Floyd, Susan S.
1996 Florida Statistical Abstract (August 1996), editor.

Florida County Rankings 1996 (November 1996), editor.

County Perspective 1996 (February 1997), section editor.

Florida and the Nation, 1997 (April 1997), editor.

Lenze, David
The Florida Long-term Economic Forecast, Vol. 1 & 2 (1996), coauthor.

"National Economic Review," Concrete Market Update and Economic Review (4th quarter
1996).

McCarty, Chris
Florida Consumer Confidence Index analysis, monthly, (1996-97).

McLarty Carol
Florida Business Briefs, monthly, assistant editor.

Building Permit Activity in Florida, monthly and annual editions (1996-97), editor.

Gross and Taxable Sales Reports, monthly and annual editions (1996-97), editor.

Mease, Ken
"Worker Concerns about Downsizing and Job Security," Florida Business Briefs (April 1997).











Table 2. Technical/Analytical/Data Publications, 1996-97
(continued)

Nogle, June

"Population Projections by Age, Sex and Race for Florida and its Counties, 1995-2010," Florida
Population Studies, No. 115 (July 1996), coauthor.

"Hispanic Population Estimates by Age and Sex for Florida and Its Counties, April 1, 1995,"
Special Population Reports, No. 4 (August 1996), coauthor.

"Projections of Florida Population by County, 1996-2020," Florida Population Studies, No. 117
(January 1997), coauthor.

"Florida Population Estimates," Florida Business Briefs (February 1997).

"Will Florida's Population Continue to Grow?" Florida Business Briefs (March 1997).

Scoggins, John F. (Dick)

Florida Business Briefs, monthly, editor.

"Is Florida Too Far Away for Manufacturers?" Florida Business Briefs (January 1997).

"Are Rental Rates in South Florida Really So High?" Florida Business Briefs (February 1997).

"Want a Part-time Job? Try Daytona Beach," Florida Business Briefs (March 1997).

"Pinellas County Has the Location, Location, Location," Florida Business Briefs (April 1997).

Smith, Stanley K

"Population Projections by Age, Sex and Race for Florida and its Counties, 1995-2010," Florida
Population Studies, No. 115 (July 1996), coauthor.

"Hispanic Population Estimates by Age and Sex for Florida and Its Counties, April 1, 1995,"
Special Population Reports, No. 4 (August 1996), coauthor.

"Number of Households and Average Household Size in Florida and Its Counties: April 1, 1996,"
Florida Population Studies, No. 116 (January 1997), coauthor.











Table 2. Technical/Analytical/Data Publications, 1996-97
(continued)

"Projections of Florida Population by County, 1996-2020," Florida Population Studies, No. 117
(February 1997), coauthor.

Florida Estimates ofPopulation: April 1, 1996 (February 1997), coauthor.

West, Carol

The Florida Long-term Economic Forecast, Vol. 1& 2 (1996), coauthor.

"Florida Economic Review," Concrete Market Update and Economic Review (4th quarter
1996).












Table 3. Papers Presented at Academic/Professional Meetings, 1996-97

Lenze, David

"The Role of Economic Impact Analysis in Military Base Realignments and Closures 1988-95,"
Spring 1997 Border-Region Economic Forum, El Paso, Texas, April 1997.

"The Mobile Home Component of Regional Housing Markets," Southern Regional Science
Association Meetings, Memphis, Tennessee, April 1997.

McCarty, Chris

"Comparing Two Methods for Estimating Personal Network Size," International Social Network
Meetings, San Diego, California, February 1997, coauthor.

Nogle, June

"Methodology for Making Estimates of the Hispanic Population by Age, Sex, and Race: Florida and
Its Counties," Population Association of America Meetings, Washington, DC, March 1997,
coauthor.

"Description and Evaluation of a Methodology for Making Population Estimates by Age, Sex and
Race," Federal-State Cooperative Program Meetings, Washington, DC, March 1997,
coauthor.

"High School Graduation of Immigrant and Second Generation Youths, 1994," Population
Association of America Meetings, Washington, DC, March 1997.

"An Introduction to Research on Internal Migration of the Foreign-bor," Summer Institute on
Immigration, Integration and Citizenship in Advanced Industrialized Democracies, New York,
July 1996.

"Internal Migration of the Foreign-bor, 1985-1990: A Factor in the Increasing Geographic
Concentration of Immigrants," Population Association of America Meetings, New Orleans,
May 1996.

Smith, Stanley K

"Methodology for Making Estimates of the Hispanic Population by Age, Sex and Race," Population
Association of America Meetings, Washington, DC, March 1997, coauthor.












Table 3. Papers Presented at Academic/Professional Meetings, 1996-97
(continued)

"Description and Evaluation of a Methodology for Making Population Estimates by Age, Sex and
Race," Federal-State Cooperative Program Meetings, Washington, DC, March 1997,
coauthor.

"In Defense of the Net Migrant," Population Association of America Meetings, New Orleans, May
1996, coauthor.


West, Carol T.

"Indirect Economic Impacts of Natural Disasters: Policy Implications of Recent Research and
Experience," Analyzing Economic Impacts and Recovery from Urban Earthquakes: Issues for
Policy Makers Conference, Pasadena, CA, October 1996.

"Regional Determinants of Regional Forecasting Errors," North American Regional Science
Association Meetings, Washington, DC, November 1996.











Table 4. Presentations to Civic/Government/Business Groups, 1996-97

Denslow, David A.

"The Economic Outlook," Florida Bankers Association Regional Meeting, Gainesville, November
1996.

"The Real Estate Outlook," Mortgage Bankers Association, Jacksonville, November 1996.

"The Florida Economy," Florida Leadership Council, Orlando, December 1996.

"The Florida Economy," The Free Speech Forum, Gainesville, February 1997 (also on radio).

"The Florida Economy," Florida School of Accounting Program, Gainesville, February 1997.

Testimony to Education Subcommittee of House Appropriations Committee, Bill Sublette, chair,
Tallahassee, February 1997.

"The Florida Economy," University of Florida Real Estate Conference, Miami, March 1997.

"The Economy of Florida's Treasure Coast," Florida Bar Association Regional Meeting, Cocoa
Beach, March 1997.

"The Tampa Bay Economy," Pinellas County Gator Club, Clearwater, March 1997.

"The Putnam Economy," Putnam Society (at request of Florida Foundation), Palatka, April 1997.

"The Florida Economy," Decision and Information Sciences Advisory Council, Gainesville, April
1997.

"The Alachua and Marion Economies," Ocala/Gainesville Business Leaders Forum, Ocala, April
1997.

"The Alachua Economy," Sustainable Alachua County Committee, Gainesville, June 1997.

Lenze, David

"The Columbia County Economic Outlook, 1995-2010," Lake City Chamber of Commerce, Lake
City, January 1997.











Table 4. Presentations to Civic/Government/Business Groups, 1996-97
(continued)

"The Florida Construction Outlook, 1995-2010," Senate Community Affairs Committee,
Tallahassee, February 1997.

"The Housing Outlook for Jacksonville, 1995-2010," First Coast's Real Estate Outlook
Conference, Jacksonville, April 1997.

"The Citrus County Economic Outlook, 1995-2005," 1996 Leadership Citrus Program, Crystal
River, June 1996.

McLarty, Carol

"Marion County Demographic Outlook and Data Resources Overview," Marion County
Community Improvement Council, Ocala, May 1996.

Scoggins, John F. (Dick)

"Local Economic Outlook," Mandarin Chamber of Commerce, Jacksonville, October 1996.

West, Carol T.

"Florida Demographic and Economic Growth in the Next Quarter Century," 21st Annual
Conference of Water Management, Ft. Lauderdale, September 1996.

"Market Outlooks," Florida Concrete and Products Association, Orlando, October 1996.











Table 5. Contracts and Grants, 1996-97


Denslow, David

Florida Price of Living Index, $70,000

McCarty, Chris

Florida Department of Education, $12,000
Florida Commission on Tourism, $12,000
UF College of Dentistry, $9,684
Florida Concrete and Products, $8,980
UF Department of Anthropology, $7,832
Bell South, $6,800
Florida Clinical Practice, $5,000
Infotech, Inc., $3,843
Florida Department of Corrections, $3,276
Askew Institute, $3,000
NICOR, Inc., $1,920
Accounting Firms Associated, $675
IFAS, $300

Smith, Stanley K

"Florida Population Research," Florida Legislature, $249,133

West, Carol T.

"Florida Long-Run Econometric Forecasting Models," Florida Legislature, $206,234
"Concrete Market Monitoring Model," Florida Concrete and Products Association, $65,670











Table 6. Courses Taught, 1996-97


Denslow, David A.


Summer A 96 Intro Macroeconomics
Fall 96 Intro Macroeconomics
Spring 97 Intro Macroeconomics


ECO 2013
ECO 2013
ECO 2013


3 credits
3 credits
3 credits


100 students
1100 students
1300 students


McCarty, Chris


Marketing Research
Marketing Research


4613X2797 4 credits 33 students
4613X2798 4 credits 31 students


Smith, Stanley K


96 Population Economics


ECP 3113 4 credits 27 students


West, Carol T.


ECO 3100 4 credits 27 students


Spring


97 Managerial Economics







































































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