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 Front Cover
 Center information
 Abstract
 Introduction
 Historical perspective
 Conclusion
 Reference
 List of Tables
 Tables






Group Title: Policy Brief Series - International Agricultural Trade and Policy Center. University of Florida ; no. 02-1
Title: Impact of the phase out of methylbromide on the U.S. vegetable industry
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Title: Impact of the phase out of methylbromide on the U.S. vegetable industry
Series Title: Policy Brief Series - International Agricultural Trade and Policy Center. University of Florida ; no. 02-1
Physical Description: Book
Language: English
Creator: VanSickle, John
NaLampang, Sikavas
Publisher: International Agricultural Trade and Policy Center, Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, University of Florida
Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, University of Florida
Place of Publication: Gainesville, Fla.
Publication Date: 2002
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Volume ID: VID00001
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Holding Location: University of Florida
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Table of Contents
    Front Cover
        Front Cover
    Center information
        Page 1
    Abstract
        Page 2
    Introduction
        Page 3
    Historical perspective
        Page 4
        Page 5
        Page 6
        Page 7
    Conclusion
        Page 8
        Page 9
    Reference
        Page 10
    List of Tables
        Page 11
    Tables
        Page 12
        Page 13
        Page 14
        Page 15
        Page 16
        Page 17
        Page 18
        Page 19
        Page 20
        Page 21
Full Text


PBTC 02-1


POLICY BRIEF SERIES


~fr


UNIVERSITY OF
FLORIDA


Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences


THE IMPACT OF THE PHASE OUT OF METHYLBROMIDE ON
THE U.S. VEGETABLE INDUSTRY
By
John VanSickle and Sikavas NaLampang

PBTC 02-1 April 2002









INTERNATIONAL AGRICULTURAL TRADE
AND POLICY CENTER


MISSION AND SCOPE:

The International Agricultural Trade and Policy Center (IATPC) was established in 1990
in the Food and Resource Economics Department (FRED) of the Institute of Food and
Agricultural Sciences (IFAS) at the University of Florida. Its mission is to provide
information, education, and research directed to immediate and long-term enhancement
and sustainability of international trade and natural resource use. Its scope includes not
only trade and related policy issues, but also agricultural, rural, resource, environmental,
food, state, national and international policies, regulations, and issues that influence trade
and development.

OBJECTIVES:

The Center's objectives are to:

Serve as a university-wide focal point and resource base for research on
international agricultural trade and trade policy issues
Facilitate dissemination of agricultural trade related research results and
publications
Encourage interaction between researchers, business and industry groups,
state and federal agencies, and policymakers in the examination and
discussion of agricultural trade policy questions
Provide support to initiatives that enable a better understanding of trade and
policy issues that impact the competitiveness of Florida and southeastern
agriculture specialty crops and livestock in the U.S. and international markets









THE IMPACT OF THE PHASE OUT OF METHYL BROMIDE ON THE
U.S. VEGETABLE INDUSTRY

John J. VanSickle and Sikavas NaLampang

John J. VanSickle, Director, and Sikavas NaLampang, Graduate Research Assistant
International Agricultural Trade and Policy Center
Food & Resource Economics Dept., IFAS
University of Florida

Abstract: Methyl bromide is a critical soil fumigant used in the production of several
fresh fruit and vegetables grown in the U.S. The U.S. Clean Air Act of 1992, as amended
in 1998, requires that methyl bromide be phased out of use by 2005. A mathematical
programming model of the North American vegetable market indicates that the
elimination of methyl bromide will have significant impacts on U.S. growers of fruit and
vegetables that rely on methyl bromide for soil fumigation purposes. The schedule for
eliminating methyl bromide has resulted in a 50% decline in methyl bromide availability
and has resulted in significant increases in the price of methyl bromide. The vegetable
industry has not felt the impact that the reduction in methyl bromide may have, however,
as increases in price have partially offset the decline in overall availability. Increases in
price have reduced the use of methyl bromide for lower valued uses, and new application
technologies have reduced the required application rate of methyl bromide for effective
control of pests and diseases. Larger impacts on the fruit and vegetable industry are
expected as the 20% reduction in 2003 and the total elimination in 2005 are imposed.

Keywords: methyl bromide, Montreal Protocol, U.S. Clean Air Act, North American
Vegetable Market, strawberries, tomatoes, bell peppers, eggplant, cucumbers, squash,
watermelons.









THE IMPACT OF THE PHASE OUT OF METHYL BROMIDE ON THE
U.S. VEGETABLE INDUSTRY

John J. VanSickle and Sikivas NaLampang

Methyl bromide is a critical soil fumigant used in the production of several fresh

fruit and vegetables grown in the U.S. Parties to the Montreal Protocol on Substances

that Deplete the Ozone Layer (the international agreement that monitors ozone depleting

substances and provides international regulations on their production and use, also known

as the Montreal Protocol) declared at their November, 1992 meeting that methyl bromide

had an ozone depletion potential (OPD) of 0.7, well above the 0.2 ODP required to be

declared as a Class I ozone depleting substance. The U.S. Clean Air Act of 1992, as

amended in 1998, requires that methyl bromide be phased out of use on a schedule that is

synchronous with the schedule for developed countries that are party to the Montreal

Protocol. That schedule called for a:

-25% reduction in methyl bromide use in 1999 from 1991 base levels;

-a second 25% reduction in use in 2000;

-a 20% reduction in 2003 and;

-complete phase out scheduled for January 1, 2005.


Research by VanSickle et al. (2000) indicated that the complete phase out of methyl

bromide would have a $218 million impact on growers in Florida and a $218 million

impact on California growers. These losses are partially offset in the marketplace as

Mexico is expected to increase their revenues by $134.









Historical Perspective

Methyl bromide has been a critical soil fumigant in the production of many

agricultural commodities for many years. Soil treatment accounted for 76% of the methyl

bromide use globally in 1992 with post harvest treatments accounting for roughly 22%

(TEAP, 1997). Strawberries and tomatoes have been the two most critical crops for soil

fumigation purposes, accounting for 35% of the soil fumigation use. While significant

progress has been made in developing alternatives to methyl bromide, no alternative has

been identified which permits a seamless transition where comparative advantage is

minimally impacted by the elimination of methyl bromide and the effected producers can

continue to compete with other producers of those crops.

The phase out of methyl bromide has resulted in a 50% reduction in use with the

first two 25% reductions already occurring. The VanSickle model was used to estimate

the impact this phase out was expected to have and then used to predict the impacts that

the 20% reduction in 2003 would have on the industry and the complete phase out in

2005.

The VanSickle et al. model is a spatial equilibrium model that accounts for

production of those fruit and vegetable crops that depend on methyl bromide as a pre-

plant soil fumigant and those crops that are competitive with crops that use methyl

bromide. Crops that were identified as being potentially impacted by the phase out of

methyl bromide included tomatoes, bell peppers, cucumbers, squash, eggplant,

watermelons and strawberries. Producing areas included in the model for these crops

included Florida, California, Mexico, Texas, South Carolina, Virginia, Maryland,

Alabama and Tennessee. Florida was separated into four producing areas: Dade County,









Palm Beach County, Southwest Florida (near Immokalee) and West Central Florida (the

Palmetto-Ruskin area). Mexico was included with two separate producing areas: the

states of Sinaloa and Baja California. California was separated into two producing areas

for strawberries: Southern California (Orange, Ventura, San Diego and Loa Angeles

Counties) and Northern California (the balance of the California crop).

The model is summarized in VanSickle et al. (2000). The model estimated

baseline acreage and production for each of the crops in each of the areas. The model was

baselined in 1993/94 since that season was judged to be characteristic of a more normal

season without weather events or international trading practices that would have distorted

the results. The baseline solution for the model performed reasonably well in replicating

the observed pattern of shipments and acres planted for the 1993/94 season. The baseline

solutions for acreage, production, revenues and prices are contained in tables 1 though 4.

The model was used to estimate the impacts that the phase out of methyl bromide

has had and will have on the North American market. Alternative production practices

where methyl bromide is not used were modeled for costs and productivity and then

included in the North American model along with those production practices used in

1993/94. The model was solved to determine the optimum allocation of production of the

crops in each area given the resulting comparative advantages of producers in each of the

regions for each of the crops. The results specified the amount of methyl bromide used in

acre units of production for the crops. The phase out was then replicated by restricting the

number of acre units using methyl bromide to 75% of the baseline (1999 reduction), 50%

of the baseline (2001 reduction) and then 30% of the baseline (scheduled 2003









reduction). The total banning of methyl bromide would be the same as that reported by

VanSickle et al.

The results for the acres planted, production and revenues for each producing area

under each of these assumptions are contained in tables 1 through 3. The tables split

acres, production and revenues between that produced using methyl bromide and that

produced without the use of methyl bromide (i.e., using an alternative production

practice).

The results of the model do fairly well in replicating the evolution of the industry

after the first two reductions in methyl bromide use. For Florida, the model predicts a

significant decline in acreage planted to tomatoes in Dade County and in Southeast

Florida. This has in fact occurred with Dade County declining in acreage planted to

tomatoes from 5,030 acres in the 1993/94 season to 3,658 acres in the 2000/01 season.

Palm Beach County has declined from 5,875 acres in 1993/94 to 4,255 acres in 2000/01.

The model also correctly predicted the significant increase in acres planted to tomatoes in

Southwest Florida. Tomatoes were a significant crop in 1993/94 in Southwest Florida

with 21,600 acres planted to tomatoes, but the acreage declined significantly in the

1996/97 and 1997/98 seasons, primarily as a result of the low prices during the period

when Mexico was selling fresh market tomatoes at prices below fair market value. The

suspension agreement signed with Mexico in December, 1996 helped to offset some of

those losses and acreage continued to increase through the 1999/2000 season when

acreage was 18,700 aces planted compared to only 14,600 acres in 1997/98.









The model also performs well in predicting the significant declines in acreage that

occurred in Florida in the bell peppers and cucumbers and in predicting modest increases

in the acreage planted to strawberries. Overall, the model does follow the trends in

production from the baseline and the expected impacts of the reduction in methyl

bromide use in 1999 and again in 2001. The impacts are not as severe as expected, but

those impacts were not expected to be as severe as the model predicts because of how the

methyl bromide phase out has been implemented. The phase out of methyl bromide use

has been implemented by restricting the volume of methyl bromide that can be produced

and sold. Soil fumigation use of methyl bromide amounted to 76% of the total use of

methyl bromide in 1992, with post harvest use accounting for about 22% and other uses

accounting for the remaining use. In addition, soil fumigation use of methyl bromide

amounted to only 75% of the global use of methyl bromide in 1992 (TEAP, 1997) and

the crops included in the VanSickle model accounted for less than 42% of the methyl

bromide used for soil fumigation. The high value nature of the crops included in the

VanSickle model and the economic impact a total ban is expected to have on those

producers therefore suggests that much of the expected impact has been delayed as

significant use of methyl bromide for soil fumigation has been shifted from crops with

lower expected benefits to the crops in the VanSickle model that require methyl bromide

for maintaining comparative advantage. The price of methyl bromide has increased

significantly since 1991, increasing from an average price of $0.95 per pound for a mix

of 98:2 (98% methyl bromide, 2% Chloropicrin) to an average price of $2.65 per pound

in 2002 for a 67:33 mix. This increase has allocated the use of methyl bromide to the

higher value uses, of which pre-plant soil fumigation for fruit and vegetable production is









expected to be the higher value uses for methyl bromide. The reduction in availability has

also led fruit and vegetable producers to use new technologies (Raven Systems vs. the

older calibration systems) that allow the growers to use less methyl bromide to insure

same effective control of the pests and diseases. For these reasons, the reduction in

methyl bromide production of 50% has not had its greatest impact on the crops included

in the VanSickle model. Therefore, the 2003 phase out of an additional 20% of the

methyl bromide use will be expected to have more significant impacts than the first 50%

and the complete banning of methyl bromide will have its largest impact in 2005 if it is

completed phased out of use.

Conclusions

The continued phase out of methyl bromide is expected to continue the trends

identified in the first two scheduled reductions, but be much more severe. The model

predicts a continued decline in tomato production in Dade County, Florida and in the

tomato, bell pepper and cucumber production in Southeast Florida. Southwest Florida is

expected to increase production of these crops to offset some of these losses, but the

larger increases will come in Mexican production of these crops.

The expected impact on the U.S. market through the 2005 elimination will be

most felt in the strawberry market. Overall, there is an expected decline in strawberry

production of 22% and a decline in revenues to strawberry producers of $138. California

strawberry producers are expected to suffer the largest individual decline with an

expected $161 million decline in revenues. Tomato producers in Florida will be hard hit

with an expected decline in revenues of $146 million in the Dade County, Palm Beach

County and West Central Producing areas. The Southwest area is expected to increase









production, however, by $83 million to offset part of this decline, resulting in a net

decline of $63 million in Florida. Bell pepper producers will suffer the largest decline in

Florida, a $115 million loss in revenues.

The model tracks the changes in the North American vegetable industry very well

and indicates that there is still work that needs to be done in identifying better alternatives

to methyl bromide. The model tracks the industry trends through the 2001 reduction in

methyl bromide use, but the larger expected impacts are expected to occur in 2003 and

again in 2005. The best information available today indicates that more research needs to

be done to find alternatives that will reduce the impact on producers who rely on methyl

bromide in the production of fresh fruit and vegetables.









References

Technology and Economic Assessment Panel (TEAP). "1997 Assessment of the
Economic Viability of Methyl Bromide Alternatives." United Nations
Environmental Program. 1997.

VanSickle, John, Charlene Brewster and Thomas H. Spreen. "Impact of a Methyl
Bromide Ban on the U.S. Vegetable Industry." Univ. FL Exp. Stat. Bull. 333. Feb.
2000.






List of Tables

Table 1.

Table 2a.

Table 2b.

Table 2c.

Table 3a.

Table 3b.

Table 4a.

Table 4b.


Planted acreage in the baseline model with a ban on methyl bromide

Production of crops in the baseline model and in the methyl bromide ban model.

Baseline production and %age changes in production of crops

Production of crop/area in the baseline model and in the methyl bromide ban model

Revenues in the baseline model and in the methyl bromide ban model

Revenues in the baseline model and changes in revenues from the methyl bromide ban model

Average wholesale prices in the baseline and the methyl bromide ban model

Baseline average wholesale prices and %age changes




































Crop/ I Baseline Acreage 75% 50% _30% No Methyl
Area With MB W/O MB Total With MB W/O MB To ~J With MB W MB Total With MB W/O MB Total Bromide


romatoes
Florida
Dade
Palm Beach
West Central
Southwest
California
Alabama/Tennessee
South Carolina
Virginia/Maryland
Mexico


Palm Beach
West Central


Sinaloa
Total


Cucumbers
Florida
Palm Beach
West Central
Southwest
Mexico
Sinaloa
Total


40l167


4fl167I 3712)7 ~


42.6791 24885) 18.8401 43.725


14.931 29.617


44.548


45.536


5,148 5,148 3,861 3,861 2,574 2,574 1,545 1,545
7,977 7,977 5,983 5,983 3,989 3,989 2,393 2,393
17,209 17,209 12,907 559 13,466 8,605 4,824 13,428 5,163 8,231 13,394 13,332
9,832 9,832 14,576 4,793 19,369 9,717 14,017 23,734 5,830 21,386 27,217 32.204
34,994 34,994 34,704 34,704 34,687 34,687 34,677 34,677 34,660
1,809 1,809 1,269 1,269 1,167 1,167 114 1,037
6,141 6,141 6,273 6,273 6,531 6,531 6,736 6,736 7,043
4,694 4,694 4,875 4,875 4,783 4,783 4,705 4,705 4,588
45,350 45,350 49,944 49,944 50,440 50,440 50,848 50,848 51,502
40,856 40,856 45,466 45,466 45972 45972 46,399 46,399 47,084
4,495 4,495 4,479 4,479 4,468 4,468 4,449 4,449 4,418
40,167 92,987 133,154 37,327 102,417 139,744 24,885 116,449 141,333 14.931 127,697 142,627 144.367


23,759 23,759 17,819 17,819 11,879 1,068 12,948 7,128 2,606 9,734 6,316
14,310 14,310 10,732 10,732 7,155 7,155 4,293 4,293 1,271
9,449 9,449 7,087 7,087 4,724 1,068 5,793 2,835 2,606 5,441 5,045
5,156 5,156 7,112 7,112 9,002 9,002 10,578 10,578 12,651

13,339 13,339 15,949 15,949 19,474 19,474 22,543 22,543 25,719
23,759 18,495 42,254 17,819 23,060 40,879 11,879 29,544 41,423 7,128 35,728 42,855 44,686


15,500 15,500 13,514 246 13,760 11,585 1,968 13,553 10,043 3,343 13,385 12355
7,277 7,277 5,458 5,458 3,639 3,639 2,183 2,183
7,839 7,839 7 7768 7,768 7,755 7,755 7,744 7,744 7,723
383 383 288 246 534 192 1,968 2,159 115 3,343 3,458 4,632

10,249 10,249 10,439 10,439 10,474 10,474 10,503 10,503 10,561


15,500 10,24~


25,748 13.514


10,685


24.199 11.585 12.4421


24.027


10.043 13,846 23.888 22,91f


Florida


Texas
Mexico


Tablel. Plantedacrea


re in the baseline model with a ban on methvl bromide




































ae. ant acreaf~. .1 n t -s em taa nm

AMBit B 1 Totali With MB w/o MBI Totall With MB W/O MBI Toual With MB WiO MBI Total Brmide


Souash
Florida
Dade
Southwest
Mexico
Sinaloa
Total

Eaoplant
Florida
Palm Beach
Mexico
Sinaloa
Total

watermelon
Florida
West Central
Southwest
Total
Straw
Florida
West Central
California
Northern
Southern
Total


1 3116


21 316 10243 2095


121338


7985 44581


12.442


6.180 6,342


2,867 2,867 3,157 3,157 3,261 3,261 3,345 3,345 3,417
9,448 9,448 7,086 2,095 9,181 4,724 4,458 9,182 2,835 6,342 9,177 9,390

11,063 11,063 11,052 11,052 11,085 11,085 11,113 11.113 11,136
12,316 11,063 23,378 10,243 13,146 21,295 7,985 15,543 21,296 6,180 17,455 21,297 23,943



3,590 3,590 2,693 2,693 1,795 1,795 1,077 1,077 940

2,606 2,606 3,246 3,246 4,164 4,164 4,522 4,522 4,727
3,590 2,606 6,196 2,693 3,246 5,939 1,795 4.164 5,959 1,077 4,522 5,599 5,667


18,854 18,854 14,141 2,452 16,593 9,427 7,591 17,019 5,656 11,701 17,358 18,181
9,251 9,251 6,939 6,939 4,626 4,626 2,775 2,775
9,603 9,603 7,202 2,452 9,654 4,801 7,591 12,393 2,881 11,701 14,582 18,181
18,854 18,854 14,141 2,452 16,593 9,427 7,591 17,019 5,656 11,701 17,358 18,181


6,177 6,177 4,633 2,521 7,154 3,088 4,877 7,966 1,853 6,258 8,111 8,302
20,005 20,005 15,004 15,004 10,002 2,460 12,462 6,001 5,744 11,746 10,717
8,949 8,949 6,712 6,712 4,475 4,475 2,685 2,685
11,056 11,056 8,292 8,292 5,528 2,460 7,988 3,317 5,744 9,061 10,717


26.182


2 8162 19 636
)
1252


31 091 7 331


20.4281


7.8551 12.002


19.8571


19.019


268 2682 1936 252 1391 73


Tbl l Pl d


i h b li d l ih b d t d





























Table 2a. Production of crops in the baseline model and in the methyl bromide ban model
Baseline Production 75% 50% 30%
Crop With MB W/O MB Total With MB W/O MB Total With MB W/O MB Total With MB W/O MB Total
Tomatoes 63,248 101,712 164,960 47,436 112,603 160,039 31,624 128,858 160,482 18,974 141,868 160,842
Peppers 23,286 13,232 36,518 17,465 16,388 33,853 11,643 21,064 32,707 6,986 25,584 32,570
Cukes 3,064 8,772 11,837 2,298 8,932 11,231 1,532 9,532 11,064 919 10,011 10,930
Squash 2,598 3,222 5,821 1,949 3,789 5,738 1,299 4,377 5,677 779 4,847 5,627
Eggplant 5,385 3,205 8,591 4,039 3,992 8,031 2,693 5,122 7,814 1,616 5,562 7,178
Watermelon 5,848 0 5,848 4,386 667 5,053 2,924 2,065 4,989 1,754 3,183 4,937
Strawberries 67,662 0 67,662 50,746 4,501 55,247 49,176 15,346 64,522 20,298 26,676 46,974



Table2b. Baseline production and %age changes in production of crops
Baseline Production 75% 50% 30%
Crop. With MB W/O MB Total With MB W/O MB Total With MB W/O MB Total With MB WIO MB Total
Tomatoes 101,041 63,919 164,960 -9.59% 6.60% -2.98% -19.17% 16.46% -2.71% -26.84% 24.34% -2.50%
Peppers 23,286 13,232 36,518 -15.94% 8.64% -7.30% -31.88% 21.45% -10.44% -44.64% 33.83% -10.81%
Cukes 3,064 8,772 11,837 -6.47% 1.35% -5.12% -12.94% 6.42% -6.53% -18.12% 10.46% -7.66%
Squash 2,598 3,222 5,821 -11.16% 9.74% -1.42% -22.32% 19.85% -2.47% -31.25% 27.92% -3.33%
Eggplant 5,385 3,205 8,591 -15.67% 9.16% -6.51% -31.35% 22.31% -9.03% -43.88% 27.44% -16.44%
Watermelon 5,848 0 5,848 -25.00% 11.41% -13.59% -50.00% 35.31% -14.69% -70.00% 54.42% -15.58%
Strawberries 67,662 0 67,662 -25.00% 6.65% -18.35% -27.32% 22.68% -4.64% -70.00% 39.42% -30.58%























1'~.htn '7' umr ptrwn nf ~rmnthrp ~i, thp h~r1lnp mndelt and in the methyl bromide ban model*aL. A- y ..-. -.- ----


Crop/ Baseline Production _75% 50% 30%
Area With MB W/OMB Total With MB W/OMB Total With MB W/OMBI Total With MB W/OMB Total


Tomatoes
Florida
Dade
Palm Beach
West Central
Southwest
California
Alabamaf/ennessee
South Carolina
Virginia/Maryland
Mexico
Sinaloa
Baja
Total

Peppers
Florida
Palm Beach
West Central
Texas
Mexico
Sinaloa
Total


Cucumbers
Florida


Palm Beach
West Central
Southwest

Sinaloa
Tntal


3 8AQ


631 A4


Ark2A aV~i


31.624


21.826 53.45C


18.974 34,282


53,25f


6,693 6,693 5,020 5,020 3,346 3,346 2,008 2,008
10,370 10,370 7,778 7,778 5,185 5,185 3,111 3,111
20,920 20,920 15,690 629 16,319 10,460 5,426 15,886 6,276 9,260 15,536
25,265 25,265 18,949 5,608 24,556 12,632 16,400 29,032 7,579 25,022 32,601
37,793 37,793 37,480 37,480 37,462 37,462 37,451 37,451
1,140 1,140 799 799 736 736 702 702
6,510 6,510 6,649 6,649 6,923 6,923 7,140 7,140
3,239 3,239 3,364 3,364 3,301 3,301 3,246 3,246
53,031 53,031 58,074 58,074 58,612 58,612 59,047 59,047
44,941 44,941 50,012 50,012 50,570 50,570 51,039 51,039
8,090 8,090 8,062 8,062 8,042 8,042 8,008 8,008
63,248 101,712 164,960 47,436 112,603 160,039 31,624 128,858 160,482 18,974 141,868 160,842



23,286 23,286 17,465 17,465 11,643 11,643 6,986 6,986
14,310 14,310 10,732 10,732 7,155 7,155 4,293 4,293
8,976 8,976 6,732 6,732 4,488 863 5,351 2,693 2,105 4,798
3,094 3,094 4,267 4,267 5,401 5,401 6,347 6,347

10,138 10,138 12,121 12,121 14,800 14,800 17,133 17,133
23,286 13,232 36,518 17,465 16,388 33,853 11,643 21,064 32,707 6,986 25,584 32,570



3,064 3,136 6,200 2,298 3,191 5,489 1,532 3,771 5,303 919 4,234 5,154
2,9911 91 2,183 2,183 1,455 1,455 873 873
3,136 3,136 3,107 3,107 3,102 3,102 3,098 3,098
153 153 115 84 199 77 669 746 46 1,136 1,183

5,637 5,637 5,742 5,742 5,761 5,761 5,777 5,777


Mexico


Toa 8 2 113 11,,06


35 673


8932 11231


11.064


10.0111


10.930


3064 8772 11837


9O8R

























Tahin 7ir Prndnetinn of trrnnlarpa in the. h~a~eine. model and in the methyl bromide ban model--4 -


Crop/ Baseline Production 175% 150% [30%
Area WithMB W/O MB Total WithMB W/O MB Total With MB W/OMB Total With MB W/OMB Total


Sauash
Florida


Dade
Southwest

Sinaloa
Total


a at

Palm Beach


Mexico
Sinaloa
Total

Watermelon
Florida
West Central
Southwest
Total
Strawberries
Florida
West Central
California
Northern
Southern
Total


2.598 788


1.949 1.358


3306


1.299 1.939


779 2,402


788 788 868 897 897 920 920
2,598 2,598 1,949 490 2,438 1,299 1,042 2,341 779 1,483 2,262

2,434 2,434 2,431 2,431 2,439 2,439 2,445 2,445
2,598 3,222 5,821 1,949 3,789 5,738 1,299 4,377 5,677 779 4,847 5,627




5,385 5,385 4,039 4,039 2,693 2,693 1,616 1,616

3,205 3,205 3,992 3,992 5,122 5,122 5,562 5,562
5,385 3,205 8,591 4,039 3,992 8,031 2,693 5,122 7,814 1,616 5,562 7,178



5,848 5,848 4,386 667 5,053 2,924 2,065 4,989 1,754 3,183 4,937
2,775 2,775 2,082 2,082 1,388 1,388 833 833
3,073 3,073 2,305 667 2,972 1,536 2,065 3,601 922 3,183 4,105
5,848 5,848 4,386 667 5,053 2,924 2,065 4,989 1,754 3,183 4,937



12,972 12,972 9,729 4,501 14,229 15,192 8,706 23,898 3,891 11,171 15,062
54,690 54,690 41,018 41,018 33,984 6,639 40,624 16,407 15,505 31,912
17,388 17,388 13,041 13,041 8,694 8,694 5,216 5,216
37,302 37,302 27,976 27,976 25,290 6,639 31,930 11,191 15,505 26,695


67,662 50,746 4.501 55,247 49,176


15,3461


64,522


____________________________________ _____________________________ a i *


20,298


67,662


Mexico


EggFloa
Florida


26,6761


46,974







Table3a. Revenues in the baseline model and in the methyl bromide ban model
Crop/ Baselinel Methyl Bromide Acreage
Area Revenues 75% 50% 30%


Tomatoes
Florida
Dade
Palm Beach
West Central
Southwest
California
Alabama/Tennessee
South Carolina
Virginia/Maryland
Mexico
Sinaloa
Baja
Total

Peppers
Florida
Palm Beach
West Central
Texas
Mexico
Sinaloa
Total

Cucumbers
Florida
Palm Beach
West Central
Southwest
Mexico
Sinaloa
Total


561,433,660


503,277,410


500,482,320


498,039,670


60,554,770 46,871,910 31,240,020 18,738,850
94,846,790 74,745,300 49,715,800 29,774,220
184,527,800 151,963,300 148,042,700 144,889,800
221,504,300 229,696,900 271,483,800 304,636,800
276,830,700 274,536,300 274,404,100 274,325,200
10,712,340 7,514,738 6,913,479 6,596,034
64,234,140 65,612,730 68,308,810 70,457,060
32,036,000 33,274,020 32,649,170 32,114,650
412,231,930 451,756,240 455,979,620 459,401,620
352,150,200 391,886,300 396,253,700 399,928,800
60,081,730 59,869,940 59,725,920 59,472,820
1,357,478,770 1,335,971,438 1,338,737,499 1,340,934,234


204,520,480 161,927,240 119,882,710 89,390,940
125,712,900 100,020,100 68,457,530 41,718,910
78,807,580 61,907,140 51,425,180 47,672,030
23,594,760 32,542,950 41,192,080 48,405,600

84,960,010 101,580,200 124,033,200 143,582,600
313,075,250 296,050,390 285,107,990 281,379,140


65,764,932 61,129,923 59,845,946 58,736,893
23,047,360 18,338,090 12,430,330 7,556,993
41,486,200 41,111,890 41,042,800 40,986,760
1,231,372 1,679,943 6,372,816 10,193,140

51,131,240 52,081,350 52,256,740 52,398,980


116.896.1721


113,211,273


112,102,686


TI ta- -1 8


111,135,873






Table3a. Revenues in the baseline model and in the methyl bromide ban model
Crop/ Baseline Methyl Bromide Acreage
Area Revenues 75% 50% 30%


Sauash
Florida


Dade
Southwest


Mexico


Sinaloa


Total


Eggplant
Florida


Palm Beach


Mexico
Sinaloa
Total

Watermelon
Florida
West Central
Southwest

Strawberries
Florida
West Central
California
Northern
Southern
Total


36,060,293


36,104,610


35,857,660


35,632,230


9,919,373 10,921,210 11,280,210 11,572,510
26,140,920 25,183,400 24,577,450 24,059,720

29,791,520 29,761,840 29,852,560 29,926,450
65,851,813 65,866,450 65,710,220 65,558,680




41,784,010 32,285,880 21,867,800 13,743,660

24,431,470 30,432,680 39,041,830 42,399,270
66,215,480 62,718,560 60,909,630 56,142,930



63,323,470 59,932,870 59,737,290 59,569,060
30,051,530 24,688,080 16,616,260 10,045,920
33,271,940 35,244,790 43,121,030 49,523,140




94,564,970 112,577,800 120,193,300 119,166,400
475,844,900 386,242,100 327,136,590 300,973,570
182,648,800 144,385,400 99,535,390 60,726,470
293,196,100 241,856,700 227,601,200 240,247,100


570,409,870


498,819,900


447,329,890


420,139,970


L _______________ U







Table3b. Revenues in the baseline model and changes in revenues from the methyl bromide ban model
Crop/ Baseline Methyl Bromide Acreage
Area Revenues 75%1 50% 30%


Tomatoes
Florida
Dade
Palm Beach
West Central
Southwest
California
Alabama/Tennessee
South Carolina
Virginia/Maryland
Mexico
Sinaloa
Baja
Total

Peppers
Florida
Palm Beach
West Central
Texas
Mexico
Sinaloa
Total

Cucumbers
Florida
Palm Beach
West Central
Southwest
Mexico
Sinaloa
Total


561.433.660


(58.156.250)


(60,951.340)


(63,393,990)


60,554,770 (13,682,860) (29,314,750) (41,815,920)
94,846,790 (20,101,490) (45,130,990) (65,072,570)
184,527,800 (32,564,500) (36,485,100) (39,638,000)
221,504,300 8,192,600 49,979,500 83,132,500
276,830,700 (2,294,400) (2,426,600) (2,505,500)
10,712,340 (3,197,602) (3,798,861) (4,116,306)
64,234,140 1,378,590 4,074,670 6,222,920
32,036,000 '1,238,020 613,170 78,650
412,231,930 39,524,310 43,747,690 47,169,690
352,150,200 39,736,100 44,103,500 47,778,600
60,081,730 (211,790) (355,810) (608,910)
1,357,478,770 (21,507,332) (18,741,271) (16,544,536)


204,520,480 (42,593,240) (84,637,770) (115,129,540)
125,712,900 (25,692,800) (57,255,370) (83,993,990)
78,807,580 (16,900,440) (27,382,400) (31,135,550)
23,594,760 8,948,190 17,597,320 24,810,840

84,960,010 16,620,190 39,073,190 58,622,590
313,075,250 (17,024,860) (27,967,260) (31,696,110)


65,764,932 (4,635,009) (5,918,986) (7,028,038)
23,047,360 (4,709,270) (10,617,030) (15,490,367)
41,486,200 (374,310) (443,400) (499,440)
1,231,372 448,571 5,141,444 8,961,768

51,131,240 950,110 1,125,500 1,267,740


611 896 172


(3.684.899)


(4.793.486)


(5,760,298)


Total 11 ,67 (3,684,899) (4 79 ,46







Table3b. Revenues in the baseline model and changes in revenues from the methyl bromide ban model
Crop/ Baseline Methyl Bromide Acreage
Area Revenues 75% 50% 30%


Squash
Florida
Dade
Southwest
Mexico
Sinaloa
Total

Eggplant
Florida
Palm Beach
Mexico
Sinaloa
Total

Watermelon
Florida
West Central
Southwest

Strawberries
Florida
West Central
California
Northern
Southern
Total


36.060.293


44.317


(202,633)


(428,063)


9,919,373 1,001,837 1,360,837 1,653,137
26,140,920 (957,520) (1,563,470) (2,081,200)

29,791,520 (29,680) 61,040 134,930
65,851,813 14,637 (141,593) (293,133)




41,784,010 (9,498,130) (19,916,210) (28,040,350)

24,431,470 6,001,210 14,610,360 17,967,800
66,215,480 (3,496,920) (5,305,850) (10,072,550)


63,323,470 (3,390,600) (3,586,180) (3,754,410)
30,051,530 (5,363,450) (13,435,270) (20,005,610)
33,271,940 1,972,850 9,849,090 16,251,200



94,564,970 18,012,830 25,628,330 24,601,430
475,844,900 (38,263,400) (148,708,310) (174,871,330)
182,648,800 (51,339,400) (83,113,410) (121,922,330)
293,196,100 (71,589,970) (65,594,900) (52,949,000)


075 409 870


(71.589.970)


(123,079,980)


.7 040 98


51( 0,269,900)


Note Parentheses contain negative numbers








Baseline Methyl Bromide Acreage
Crop Price 75% 50% 30%
Tomatoes 9.10 9.20 9.19 9.18
Peppers 9.60 9.87 9.97 10.00
Cukes 10.98 11.08 11.11 11.14
Squash 13.84 13.89 13.92 13.94
Eggplant 8.29 8.42 8.48 8.61
Watermelon 14.49 15.40 15.48 15.55
Strawberries 9.98 10.79 10.85 10.85



Table 4b. Baseline average wholesale prices and %age changes
Baseline Methyl Bromide Acreage
Crop Price 75% 50% 30%
Tomatoes 9.10 1.12% 1.04% 0.97%
Peppers 9.60 2.81% 3.84% 4.08%
Cukes 10.98 0.99% 1.25% 1.47%
Squash 13.84 0.32% 0.54% 0.72%
Eggplant 8.29 1.52% 2.22% 3.88%
Watermelon 14.49 6.26% 6.85% 7.33%
Strawberries 9.98 8.10% 8.71% 8.71%


the baseline and the methyl bromide ban model


Table4a.,Averaee wholesale prices in




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