PAGE 1

THE STATE OF FLORIDA'SHousing 2004D ouglas White, F lorida Housing Data Clearinghouse, Shimberg Center, U niversity of Florida Ma rc T. Smith, S himberg Center, University of F lorida Dean Gatzlaff, R eal Estate Center, Florida State U niversity Ma ry Lois White, Albright CollegeF lorida Housing Data Clearinghouse S himberg Center for Affordable Housing, M. E. Rinker, Sr. School of Building Construction, College of Design, Construction & Planning U niversity of Florida www.flhousingdata.shimberg.ufl.edu M ajor funding for this report provided by the S tate of Florida. J im Martinez, F lorida Housing Data Clearinghouse, Shimberg Center, University of Florida D iep Nguyen, F lorida Housing Data Clearinghouse, Shimberg Center, University of Florida W illiam O'Dell, F lorida Housing Data Clearinghouse, Shimberg Center, University of Florida

PAGE 2

This publication, as well as an Appendix containing estimates of housing supply for each of Floridas sixty-seven counties and many Florida cities, are available on the I nternet at www.flhousingdata.shimberg.ufl.edu.

PAGE 3

Florida Housing Data Clearinghouse, Shimberg Center for Affordable Housing, M. E. Rinker, Sr. School of Building Construction, College of Design, Construction and Planning, University of Florida Clearinghouse website: www.flhousingdata.shimberg.ufl.eduMajor funding for this report provided by the State of FloridaD ouglas White Florida Housing Data Clearinghouse Shimberg Center University of Florida Marc T. Smith Shimberg Center University of Florida D ean Gatzlaff Real Estate Center Florida State University Mary Lois White Albright College J im Martinez Florida Housing Data Clearinghouse Shimberg Center University of Florida Diep Nguyen Florida Housing Data Clearinghouse Shimberg Center University of Florida W illiam O'Dell Florida Housing Data Clearinghouse Shimberg Center University of Florida The State of Florida'sHousing 2004

PAGE 5

One of the primary objectives of the Florida Housing Data Clearinghouse is to provide state and local policy makers and program planners with a centralized source for estimates of current housing supply. The Shimberg Center for Affordable Housing wishes to acknowledge the continued support of the Florida Housing Finance Corporation for the preparation of this report titled The State of Floridas Housing, 2004 We also acknowledge the valuable input provided by the numerous county property appraiser offices throughout Florida who have provided us invaluable assistance in understanding and clarifying the information contained in The State of Floridas Housing The databases and reports produced by the Florida Housing Data Clearinghouse, including The State of Floridas Housing are publicly accessible on the Internet and may be found in the following two ways: at www.shimberg.ufl.edu, select Fla. Housing Data to access all available materials or go directly to http://www.flhousingdata.shimberg.ufl.edu/. We welcome comments to make the report more valuable. Robert C. Stroh, Sr., Ph. D. Director, Shimberg Center A cknowledgement

PAGE 7

1 Contents1.0 Introduction............................................................................................................... .......3 2.0 Florida Population Changes Between 1990-2000..............................................................4 2.1 Introduction 2.2 Statewide Population Changes 2.3 County Level Population Growth 2.4 Census Tract Population Growth 2.5 Changes in Income 2.6 Profile of St. Johns County 2.7 Conclusion 3.0Floridas Housing Supply..................................................................................................25 3.1 Data Description 3.2 Geography 3.3 Single-family Housing 3.4 Condominiums 3.5 Multifamily Housing 3.6 Summary 4.0 Housing Prices and Affordability.....................................................................................47 4.1 Introduction 4.2 Housing Affordability Index 5.0Florida House Price Trends: Market Comparisons and Forecasts.......................................58 5.1 Introduction 5.2 Statewide Measures of Single-Family House Prices in Florida 5.3 District-Level Measures of Single-Family House Price Appreciation in Florida 5.4 MSA-Level Measures of Single-Family House Price Appreciation in Florida 5.5 County-Level Measures of House Price Appreciation in Florida 5.6 Forecasts of Stateand MSA-Level House Price Changes 6.0 Conclusion................................................................................................................. .......82T ables2.1 Age and Gender............................................................................................................. ......5 2.2 Floridas Migrant Population............................................................................................... .5 2.3 County Population Growth 1990-2000...............................................................................6 2.4 Origin of Floridas Population............................................................................................. .8 2.5 Year 2000 Residents Location of Residence in 1995 for Residents within the U.S.............10 2.6 Residents Location of Work..............................................................................................12 2.7 Selected Population Growth Rates at the Census Tract Level..............................................14 2.8 Population Increases by Age Group....................................................................................16 2.9 Location of Residence in 1995...........................................................................................18 2.10 Median Income (1999 Dollars)........................................................................................20 2.11 St. Johns County Census Tracts.......................................................................................22 2.12 Worker Population Growth Census Tract Level.............................................................23 The State of FloridasHousing 2004

PAGE 8

2The State of FloridasHousing 2004 2.13 Location of Residence in 1995 Census Tract Level...............................................24 3.1 Single-family Housing Stock.....................................................................................30 3.2 Condominium Housing Stock..................................................................................38 3.3 Multifamily Housing Stock with Two to Nine Units in Complex.............................43 3.4 Multifamily Housing Stock with Ten or more Units in Complex..............................45 4.1 Affordability Index....................................................................................................50 4.2 Affordability Index Ranking 2002.............................................................................53 4.3 Just Value Comparison of Owner-Occupied and N on-Owner-Occupied Single-Family Homes........................................................54 4.4 Comparison of 2002 Median Hourly Wages to Qualifying Income..........................56 5.1 Summary of Florida House Price Appreciation.........................................................59 5.2 Average Annual Percentage Appreciation and Period Rankings by District................62 5.3 Annual House Price Indices for Florida Districts.......................................................63 5.4 Annual House Price Appreciation (%) for Florida Districts.......................................64 5.5 Correlation of Annual Appreciation Rates between Districts.....................................65 5.6 Average Annual Percentage Appreciation and Period Rankings By MSA...................67 5.7 Annual House Price Indices for Florida Metropolitan Statistical Areas......................68 5.8 Annual House Price Appreciation (%) for Florida Metropolitan Statistical Areas......70 5.9 Average Annual Percentage Appreciation and Period Rankings By County................72 5.10 Annual House Price Appreciation (%) for Selected Counties..................................74 5.11 Explaining Past Changes in Real Single-Family House Prices..................................77 5.12 Average Annual Percentage Appreciation and Period Rankings By MSA.................79 5.13 District, MSA and Counties listed by District Location..........................................80FiguresF igure 3.1 Floridas 6 Major Metropolitan Areas.............................................................27 F igure 3.2 Floridas Remaining 15 Metropolitan Areas...................................................28 F igure 3.3 Floridas 4 Non-metropolitan Areas................................................................29 F igure 3.4 Percentage of States Single-Family Housing Stock..........................................34 F igure 3.5 Median 2001 Sales Price Single-Family Home...............................................35 F igure 3.6 Percentage of States Condominium Stock......................................................36 F igure 3.7 Median 2001 Sales Price for Condominiums.................................................37 F igure 5.1 Florida Annual House Price Index and Appreciation......................................60 F igure 5.2 Florida Annual House Price Appreciation......................................................61 F igure 5.3 Average Annual House Price Appreciation......................................................61

PAGE 9

3 1. IntroductionThis study is a compendium of facts on Floridas housing. The data highlight the tremendous diversity in housing characteristics across the state, particularly between the 35 urban counties and the 32 rural counties, as w ell as between coastal and non-coastal counties. The characteristics of Floridas housing reflect the characteristics of the states population. The population of the state is growing, creating a demand for additional housing, yet that growth is not distributed uniformly across the state. Gr ow th is most often a coastal phenomenon. Further, the nature of the growth differs across the state as characterized by age, income, race, ethnicity, and county of origin. The following report is divided into four sections that examine the changes to F loridas population between 1990 and 2000, Floridas housing stock, the affordability of the housing stock, and price trends and forecasts for Floridas housing stock. Over the past decade Florida has experienced widespread population growth. Chapter 2 examines this growth in detail providing statistics at both the county and census tract levels. In addition to this growth, many of Floridas communities have also experienced income growth from 1990 to 2000 above the rate of inflation that should afford r esidents an improved standard of living. These statistics, as well as others with r egard to the relationship between F loridians location choices for employment and residence, are detailed in Chapter 2. Pr operty appraiser data files are used to examine Floridas housing stock in Chapter 3. First the housing stock is separated into three broad categories: single-family housing, condominiums, and multi-family housing, which are further separated into complexes with two to nine units and complexes with ten or more units. This separation highlights the difference between the rural, urban, and coastal counties. S ingle-family housing units dominate, but condominiums are an important source of housing in some coastal counties. Other broad trends are discussed in this section including the total number of units, the median age of units, and the median sales price of units in each county. The coastal and large urban counties tend to have the largest number of units and the highest median sales prices when compared to the rest of the state. The issue of housing affordability is examined in Chapter 4. The most affordable housing is generally located in rural counties in the interior and northern part of the state. In general, the least affordable counties are either coastal counties or located in major metropolitan areas. Besides examining the individual counties, Chapter 4 examines affordability at the state level and finds that after years of increasing affordability, housing became less affordable in Florida over the last year. This decline in affordability is likely due to the fact that housing prices have continued to appreciate rapidly in the state while personal income has experienced little growth over the last two years. The movement in house prices and the rate of appreciation in housing is discussed in Chapter 5. Florida is currently experiencing the highest fivey ear real rate of increase in housing prices that it has ever seen. House prices have increased by almost 7.0 percent per year ov er and above the general rate of inflation the last three years. Housing prices are predicted to continue rising with the southern portion of the state and the six largest metropolitan areas experiencing higher than average increases; lower than average price

PAGE 10

4The State of FloridasHousing 2004 1When comparing Census Tracts between decennial Censuses, extreme care must be taken to make sure that the tracts are geographically consistent. Consistency has been accomplished by using GeoLytics cd Long Form in 2000 Boundaries. For detailed information see GeoLytics website, http://www.geolytics.com.increases are forecast in the northwest part of the state. This report first discusses changes to Fl oridas population that occurred between 1990 and 2000. Second, it details characteristics of the housing stock in the state. Third, it discusses issues in the affordability of housing in the state. F inally, it discusses the movement in house prices and the rate of appreciation in housing. The expectation is that the information included in this study will help readers to understand the diversity, the needs, the public policy concerns, and the opportunities of Floridas many housing markets.2. Florida Population Changes Between 1990-2000Ma ry Lois White, Ph.D., Department of Economics and Business, Albright College D ouglas White, Florida Housing Data Clearinghouse, Shimberg Center, U niversity of Florida2.1 IntroductionF lorida is well known for its diverse population. In the discussion that follows, changes in Floridas population demographics will be examined at the aggregate state level and in more detail at the county and census tract levels1. The smaller census tract units will be valuable in determining the changes that are occurring within Floridas counties, pinpointing where Floridas growth is occurring, and identifying the sources of that growth. This section will examine whether Floridas population growth is widespread throughout the state or if it is occurring in isolated pockets. It will also examine whether the population growth is due to increases in the native F loridian population, increases in the number of citizens migrating from other states, or increases in the foreign born population. Finally, it will explore whether local population gains within F lorida are due to losses of population from other areas within the state.2.2 Statewide Population ChangesBetween 1990-2000, the state of Fl oridas population grew approximately 24%, from 12,937,926 to 15,982,378. T able 2.1 shows that although many often associate Florida with its elderly population, those individuals aged 65 and older comprise only 18% of the total population, a decline from 1990 when they accounted for 19% of the population. This is due to the fact that they had a slower rate of growth than most of the other age categories. The y oungest age group, for those under 18, showed some of the highest growth rates, 27% for both males and females. F lorida is also commonly associated with its foreign born population. In fact, much of its growth was due to increases in this population. As Table 2.2 illustrates, of the 3,044,452 new Florida residents, 33% were foreign born and 20% migrated from another U.S. state. In 1990, only 13% of Floridas residents were foreign born, by the year 2000 this had increased to 17%. In contrast, almost half of Floridas r esidents, 48%, were citizens born in another U.S. state. However, this is down from 1990 when 55% of the population r eported being born in another U.S. state. The change was not due to fewer residents having been born in another U. S. state as there were almost 600,000 additional outof-state persons reported in 2000. Instead, this change in composition is due to the fact that the foreign born population grew at a higher rate than the out of state population.

PAGE 11

5 1990 Population2000 Population% of Total Increase County To tal% Foreign% OtherTotal% Foreign% OtherTotalForeignOut of BornU.S. StateBornU.S. StateIncreaseBornState State 12,937,92613%55%15,982,37817%48%3,044,45233%20% T able 2.1 Age and Gender2.3 County Level Population GrowthF loridas growth was widespread throughout the state. Table 2.3 details the population growth experienced by each of Floridas 67 counties between 1990-2000. Many of the counties that experienced the highest rates of growth are in either North Central Florida or the geographic region known as the P anhandle. The counties with the largest percentage increases were Flagler, Sumter, Collier, Wakulla, and Osceola Counties, with increases of 74%, 69%, 65%, 61%, and 60%, respectively. However, all of 1990Percent of2000Percent of PopulationPopulationPopulationPopulationGrowth Male: Total6,255,06548%7,787,74249%25% Under 181,468,44311%1,863,92212%27% 18-21342,4953%400,4733%17% 22-341,330,24010%1,316,3588%-1% 35-541,523,59212%2,263,85214%49% 55-64583,2755%728,9465%25% 65+1,007,0208%1,214,1918%21% Female: Total6,682,84852%8,194,63651%23% Under 181,396,05711%1,770,65011%27% 18-21330,4923%379,3132%15% 22-341,316,83610%1,290,6858%-2% 35-541,592,56512%2,336,90215%47% 55-64685,2755%825,1405%20% 65+1,361,62311%1,591,94610%17% T able 2.2 Floridas Migrant Population these counties experienced actual population increases of less than 100,000 while during the same time period, M iami-Dade and Broward experienced population increases of 316,268 and 367,530, respectively. Although Broward is growing faster than Miami-Dade, M iami-Dade is still the largest county in F lorida with a population of 2,253,362. In comparison, Floridas smallest county is Liberty with 7,021 residents in 2000.

PAGE 12

6The State of Floridas Housing, 2004 T able 2.3 County Population Growth 1990-2000County19902000GrowthIncrease Alachua 181,596217,95520%36,359 Baker 18,48622,25920%3,773 Bay 126,994148,21717%21,223 Bradford 22,51526,08816%3,573 Brevard 398,978476,23019%77,252 Broward 1,255,4881,623,01829%367,530 Calhoun 11,01113,01718%2,006 Charlotte 110,975141,62728%30,652 Citrus 93,515118,08526%24,570 Clay 105,986140,81433%34,828 Collier 152,099251,37765%99,278 Columbia 42,61356,51333%13,900 DeSoto 23,86532,20935%8,344 Dixie 10,58513,82731%3,242 Duval 672,971778,87916%105,908 Escambia 262,499294,41012%31,911 Flagler 28,70149,83274%21,131 Franklin 8,96711,05723%2,090 Gadsden 41,10545,08710%3,982 Gilchrist 9,66714,43749%4,770 Glades 7,62710,57639%2,949 Gulf 11,50413,33216%1,828 Hamilton 10,93013,32722%2,397 Hardee 19,49926,93838%7,439 Hendry 25,77336,21040%10,437 Hernando 101,115130,80229%29,687 Highlands 68,43287,36628%18,934 Hillsborough 834,054998,94820%164,894 Holmes 15,77818,56418%2,786 Indian River 90,208112,94725%22,739 Jackson 41,37546,75513%5,380 Jefferson 11,29612,90214%1,606 Lafayette 5,5787,02226%1,444 Lake 152,104210,52838%58,424 T able 2.4 describes the sources of these counties population gains. For example, M iami-Dade had a total increase in its population of 316,268. Of this increase, 86% was due to increases in the number of foreign born residents. This indicates that Miami-Dade had an increase of 273,196 foreign-born residents, but Br ow ard was close behind with 212,113. In comparison, Monroes total population increased by only 1,565, of which the increase in the foreign born population accounted for 246% of that change. Therefore the foreign born population actually increased by a total of 3,850. However, the final column indicates that the change in Monroes population born out of state decreased by an amount equal to 164% of Monroes total population change, and thus, the number of residents that were born in another U.S. state decreased by 2,5602. This large decrease offset the increase in foreign-born residents and is the reason why Monroes population did not experience more growth. The only county to actually experience a decrease in the size of its foreign-born population was Jackson County. In addition to Monroe, the following

PAGE 13

7 Table 2.3 County Population Growth 1990-2000 (continued)County19902000GrowthIncrease Lee 335,113440,88832%105,775 Leon 192,493239,45224%46,959 Levy 25,92334,45033%8,527 Liberty 5,5697,02126%1,452 Madison 16,54418,73313%2,189 Manatee 211,707264,00225%52,295 Marion 194,833258,91633%64,083 Martin 100,900126,73126%25,831 Miami-Dade 1,937,0942,253,36216%316,268 Monroe 78,02479,5892%1,565 Nassau 43,94157,66331%13,722 Okaloosa 143,776170,49819%26,722 Okeechobee 29,59135,91021%6,319 Orange 677,491896,34432%218,853 Osceola 107,728172,49360%64,765 Palm Beach 863,5181,131,18431%267,666 Pasco 281,131344,76523%63,634 Pinellas 851,659921,4828%69,823 Polk 405,382483,92419%78,542 Putnam 65,07070,4238%5,353 St. Johns 83,829123,13547%39,306 St. Lucie 150,171192,69528%42,524 Santa Rosa 81,907117,74344%35,836 Sarasota 277,776325,95717%48,181 Seminole 287,529365,19627%77,667 Sumter 31,57753,34569%21,768 Suwannee 26,78034,84430%8,064 T aylor 17,13619,25612%2,120 Union 10,25213,44231%3,190 V olusia 370,712443,34320%72,631 W akulla 14,20222,86361%8,661 W alton 27,76040,60146%12,841 W ashington 16,91920,97324%4,054 State Total12,937,92615,982,37824%3,044,452 counties experienced decreases in the number of residents born in another U.S. state: Broward, Gadsden, Liberty, M iami-Dade, Pinellas, and Putnam. The counties that gained the most from stateto-state migration are: Calhoun, Charlotte, Citrus, Flagler, Gulf, H ernando, Indian River, St. Johns, Santa R osa, Sumter, and Walton. All of these counties can attribute 50% or more of their population increase to new residents from other states. However, in absolute terms, Palm Beach County had the largest increase in residents born in another U.S. state with 73,103. In total, Broward had the largest ov erall increase in new residents with 367,530 additional persons compared to 1990. Overall, the group with the highest growth rate during the decade was the population born within the state. 2The table can be used to determine the change in the foreign born population and the change in the population born in another U.S. state in the following manner. To determine the total foreign-born increase multiply the total population increase by the Foreign Born Percent of Total Increase. E.g., for Monroe County, (total increase*foreign born %)=(1,565*246%)=3,850.

PAGE 14

8The State of Floridas Housing, 2004 T able 2.4 Origin of Floridas Population 1990 Population2000 Population% of Total Increase County To tal% Foreign% OtherTotal% Foreign% OtherTotalForeignOut of BornU.S. StateBornU.S. StateIncreaseBorn State Alachua 181,5966%44%217,9557%43%36,35914%33% Baker 18,4861%27%22,2591%29%3,7733%35% Bay 126,9943%55%148,2174%53%21,2235%36% Bradford 22,5151%33%26,0882%30%3,5737%12% Brevard 398,9785%68%476,2307%63%77,25213%38% Broward 1,255,48816%59%1,623,01825%44%367,53058%-6% Calhoun 11,0111%25%13,0172%32%2,00610%68% Charlotte 110,9756%79%141,6278%75%30,65214%58% Citrus 93,5155%71%118,0855%69%24,5705%59% Clay 105,9863%58%140,8145%53%34,8289%38% Collier 152,09910%69%251,37718%61%99,27830%48% Columbia 42,6132%38%56,5132%39%13,9004%42% DeSoto 23,8656%47%32,20919%39%8,34457%15% Dixie 10,5851%38%13,8272%38%3,2426%36% Duval 672,9713%49%778,8796%44%105,90821%13% Escambia 262,4993%53%294,4104%51%31,91112%32% Flagler 28,7018%70%49,83210%70%21,13112%69% Franklin 8,9672%36%11,0572%37%2,0902%43% Gadsden 41,1051%26%45,0874%23%3,98234%-1% Gilchrist 9,6671%38%14,4372%38%4,7703%37% Glades 7,6275%46%10,5768%42%2,94917%29% Gulf 11,5041%32%13,3322%35%1,8287%56% Hamilton 10,9302%34%13,3272%35%2,3975%43% Hardee 19,4996%38%26,93817%31%7,43947%11% Hendry 25,77315%37%36,21024%30%10,43747%14% Hernando 101,1156%74%130,8025%70%29,6875%56% Highlands 68,4325%63%87,3669%56%18,93425%31% Hillsborough 834,0548%50%998,94812%45%164,89431%16% Holmes 15,7781%45%18,5642%45%2,7863%44% Indian River 90,2086%66%112,9478%63%22,73916%50% Jackson 41,3752%35%46,7552%34%5,380-4%32% Jefferson 11,2961%33%12,9021%33%1,6063%29% Lafayette 5,5784%21%7,0227%25%1,44417%39% Lake 152,1043%64%210,5285%60%58,4249%49%

PAGE 15

9 Table 2.4 Origin of Floridas Population (continued) 1990 Population2000 Population% of Total Increase County To tal% Foreign% OtherTotal% Foreign% OtherTotalForeignOut of BornU.S. StateBornU.S. StateIncreaseBorn State Lee 335,1135%72%440,8889%66%105,77522%47% Leon 192,4934%44%239,4525%41%46,9599%27% Levy 25,9232%45%34,4503%45%8,5273%47% Liberty 5,5691%22%7,0212%15%1,4526%-11% Madison 16,5441%30%18,7332%29%2,18913%20% Manatee 211,7075%68%264,0028%62%52,29521%37% Marion 194,8334%60%258,9165%58%64,08310%52% Martin 100,9007%72%126,7318%67%25,83113%49% Miami-Dade 1,937,09445%25%2,253,36251%16%316,26886%-36% Monroe 78,02410%61%79,58915%57%1,565246%-164% Nassau 43,9412%46%57,6633%45%13,7226%43% Okaloosa 143,7764%65%170,4985%62%26,72210%48% Okeechobee 29,5916%50%35,91012%43%6,31936%7% Orange 677,4918%58%896,34414%46%218,85336%11% Osceola 107,7287%64%172,49314%50%64,76525%27% Palm Beach 863,51812%63%1,131,18417%55%267,66634%27% Pasco 281,1316%73%344,7657%66%63,63412%37% Pinellas 851,6597%70%921,48210%62%69,82339%-30% Polk 405,3824%54%483,9247%48%78,54224%19% Putnam 65,0702%46%70,4233%42%5,35318%-2% St. Johns 83,8294%58%123,1355%58%39,3068%59% St. Lucie 150,1716%63%192,69510%57%42,52425%36% Santa Rosa 81,9072%54%117,7433%55%35,8365%56% Sarasota 277,7766%76%325,9579%70%48,18129%38% Seminole 287,5296%63%365,1969%56%77,66720%28% Sumter 31,5772%50%53,3456%57%21,76811%68% Suwannee 26,7802%35%34,8445%35%8,06415%36% T aylor 17,1361%29%19,2562%28%2,1208%23% Union 10,2522%27%13,4422%30%3,1901%39% V olusia 370,7126%66%443,3436%62%72,63110%39% W akulla 14,2021%36%22,8631%36%8,6612%37% W alton 27,7602%51%40,6013%53%12,8417%56% W ashington 16,9192%36%20,9732%39%4,0543%49% State 12,937,92613%55%15,982,37817%48%3,044,45233%20%

PAGE 16

10The State of FloridasHousing 2004 Although Table 2.4 indicates the high rates of growth coming from out of state, it does not indicate to what degree local growth is from within state county-tocounty migration. Table 2.5 identifies the percentage of each countys residents, aged 5 years and older, that lived in the U nited States in 1995 and lived in the same county in 2000. Of those that did not live in the same county, the table also indicates what percentage of those individuals migrated into the county from another Florida county or from another U.S. state. Eighty-two percent of Miami-Dades residents, 61% of Duval Countys residents, and 60% of H illsborough Countys residents lived in the same county five years ago. In contrast, only 21% of Sumter Countys re sidents and 25% of the residents in G lades County and Gilchrist County that lived in these counties in 2000 lived in those counties five years ago. The counties that relied more heavily on migration from out-of-state are Bay, Charlotte, Collier, Lee, Okaloosa, and S arasota, with 72%, 71%, 73%, 75%, 77%, and 72% of their new residents coming from other U. S. states. F ourteen counties relied heavily on within-state migrants rather than out-ofstate migrants. Following each countys name is the percent of their new residents that lived elsewhere within the state of F lorida in 1995: Baker (76%), Bradford (78%), Dixie (82%), Gilchrist (80%), Hamilton (72%), Jefferson (79%), Lafayette (79%), Levy (70%), Liberty (85%), Madison (74%), Taylor (71%), U nion (76%), Wakulla (76%), and W ashington (73%). It is possible that these counties experienced much of their growth in areas near their borders with other major metropolitan areas. For instance, Baker and Bradford are located near Duval County, one of the largest in the state. Madison and Wakulla Counties are located near Leon County, the location of the state capital and home to two state universities. If this is true, then these counties should also experience growth in the number of workers that work out-of-their county of r esidence. Table 2.6 details the percentage of each countys workers that work within their county of residence.County T able 2.5 Year 2000 Residents Location of Residence in 1995 for Residents within the U. S.Alachua 41%59%67%33% Baker 41%59%76%24% Bay 55%45%28%72% Bradford 36%64%78%22% Brevard 55%45%31%69% Broward 58%42%46%54% Calhoun 51%49%78%22% Charlotte 37%63%29%71% Citrus 38%62%38%62% Clay 33%67%51%49% Collier 46%54%27%73% Columbia 44%56%64%36% DeSoto 47%53%52%48% Dixie 34%66%82%18% Duval 61%39%35%65% Escambia 52%48%31%69% Flagler 31%69%33%67% Lived in Same County Lived in Different County Lived in Different County, Same State Lived in Different County, Different State

PAGE 17

11 Franklin 42%58%61%39% Gadsden 54%46%65%35% Gilchrist 25%75%80%20% Glades 25%75%69%31% Gulf 41%59%64%36% Hamilton 40%60%72%28% Hardee 58%42%66%34% Hendry 56%44%63%37% Hernando 39%61%41%59% Highlands 47%53%45%55% Hillsborough 60%40%38%62% Holmes 43%57%68%32% Indian River 45%55%42%58% Jackson 47%53%63%37% Jefferson 42%58%79%21% Lafayette 33%67%79%21% Lake 37%63%52%48% Lee 50%50%25%75% Leon 46%54%64%36% Levy 35%65%70%30% Liberty 34%66%85%15% Madison 52%48%74%26% Manatee 48%52%38%62% Marion 47%53%43%57% Martin 39%61%50%50% Miami-Dade 82%18%31%69% Monroe 45%55%35%65% Nassau 43%57%52%48% Okaloosa 45%55%23%77% Okeechobee 55%45%64%36% Orange 51%49%46%54% Osceola 42%58%40%60% Palm Beach 56%44%36%64% Pasco 41%59%48%52% Pinellas 59%41%31%69% Polk 59%41%41%59% Putnam 50%50%61%39% St. Johns 35%65%44%56% St. Lucie 49%51%48%52% Santa Rosa 37%63%45%55% Sarasota 48%52%28%72% Seminole 40%60%54%46% Sumter 21%79%44%56% Suwannee 41%59%74%26% T aylor 52%48%71%29% Union 30%70%76%24% V olusia 51%49%39%61% W akulla 32%68%76%24% W alton 37%63%50%50% W ashington 36%64%73%3% County T able 2.5 Year 2000 Residents Location of Residence in 1995 for Residents within the U. S. (continued)Lived in Same County Lived in Different County Lived in Different County, Same State Lived in Different County, Different State

PAGE 18

12The State of FloridasHousing 2004 There are ten counties where less than 50% of workers that work within the state are employed in their county of r esidence: Baker, Bradford, Clay, G ilchrist, Glades, Jefferson, Liberty, S anta Rosa, Union, and Wakulla. Seven of these counties were identified previously as having large percentages of new residents migrating from other counties within the state. An examination of the growth in these counties at the census tract level could pinpoint whether the growth is occurring in areas that would provide easy travel to nearby counties for work. Population growth at the census tract level will be discussed in section 2.4 that follows. T able 2.6 Residents Location of WorkW orked in State 1990 Alachua 83,36778,83995%102,04995,67094% Baker 7,0803,99556%9,0154,41549% Bay 56,54255,05597%66,30664,15997% Bradford 8,2524,86659%9,2214,50349% Brevard 181,665173,64996%202,656189,05693% Broward 583,405471,59581%737,373565,81277% Calhoun 3,7262,29362%4,2782,49658% Charlotte 37,06629,91381%49,10036,75075% Citrus 29,17624,40084%37,24029,46179% Clay 50,82720,09040%66,86226,79840% Collier 66,33963,53996%101,43895,02094% Columbia 17,09512,86175%22,28716,94076% DeSoto 8,4176,76380%12,5119,19173% Dixie 3,1672,28072%4,4462,82363% Duval 328,410314,86896%369,359349,55395% Escambia 112,094106,62195%121,799114,99094% Flagler 10,1947,37972%18,26111,45163% Franklin 3,2222,77686%3,7993,41190% Gadsden 15,4619,23060%17,3878,68650% Gilchrist 3,4731,27037%5,6182,28841% Glades 2,7261,27947%3,5611,64246% Gulf 4,4143,56781%4,4893,14570% Hamilton 3,4192,68479%3,3582,37071% Hardee 7,5765,49973%9,7346,79870% Hendry 10,4797,36170%14,2269,90170% Hernando 30,45921,76171%42,72028,80567% Highlands 21,83020,05492%29,15026,24590% Hillsborough 407,949373,74192%467,397419,78090% Holmes 4,5992,99365%5,5903,11556% Indian River 34,20730,12688%44,22439,07288% Jackson 15,23712,54882%15,95912,62579% Jefferson 4,4862,37653%5,2972,35144% Lafayette 2,0701,40068%2,4401,56764% Lake 56,64942,77776%80,80451,84264% Lee 140,713129,22692%180,595161,93990% Leon 99,93696,17896%118,486114,00796% Levy 9,3815,17255%12,5716,80454% W orked in County % of Instate W orkers W orked in State 2000 W orked in County % of Instate W orkers

PAGE 19

13 2.4 Census Tract Population GrowthCensus tract data allow us to determine the location of the growth within the counties. Table 2.1 showed F lagler, Sumter, Collier, Wakulla, and Osceola Counties, had population growth rates of 74%, 69%, 65%, 61%, and 60%, respectively. Table 2.7 below shows the population growth within these counties, as well as the other counties that experienced growth rates exceeding 40%, at the census tract level. N ot every census tract is shown for theLiberty 1,97999250%2,3381,13549% Madison 5,3634,44983%5,9704,72479% Manatee 85,31764,90676%109,92182,09875% Marion 73,02165,58390%95,20783,03487% Martin 39,99629,37373%49,44734,15069% Miami-Dade 883,359844,72296%893,606823,48192% Monroe 40,32138,18995%41,16239,72196% Nassau 18,28811,06460%24,94314,47258% Okaloosa 69,28766,46196%80,36974,92093% Okeechobee 11,8009,21178%13,56510,34576% Orange 353,608317,49390%436,120376,70986% Osceola 50,86929,32358%77,06938,41650% Palm Beach 376,384343,10091%470,367421,81190% Pasco 95,07858,75562%130,40771,36755% Pinellas 373,415332,69589%415,036360,28587% Polk 167,354149,69989%201,015170,63785% Putnam 22,49816,41573%25,50517,32268% St. Johns 38,51425,27266%58,05535,43861% St. Lucie 59,54942,39471%75,57449,97966% Santa Rosa 35,61918,50752%49,67423,08746% Sarasota 111,204100,95891%131,035113,69187% Seminole 148,47471,46948%185,86296,29352% Sumter 10,8056,52960%14,5517,96055% Suwannee 10,2167,35172%13,2838,81866% T aylor 6,6366,19793%7,1176,31189% Union 3,2751,91258%3,9251,83547% V olusia 151,799128,56985%184,017149,83281% W akulla 6,8782,64638%10,2864,04339% W alton 10,6507,06966%16,09411,07869% W ashington 6,0253,91365%7,4184,16756% counties. In most instances, only the census tracts with the highest rates of growth have been selected. It is interesting to note that only six of the ten counties listed in the table are located along Floridas coastline. T able 2.6 Residents Location of Work (continued)W orked in State 1990 W orked in County % of Instate W orkers W orked in State 2000 W orked in County % of Instate W orkers

PAGE 20

14The State of FloridasHousing 2004 Collier County is one of the states most populous counties and is located along the Gulf coast in southwest Florida. The census tracts in Collier County are located in the Northwest corner of the county around Naples. Census tracts 101.01 and 102.04 are located on the G ulf of Mexico but many other tracts are also located near the Gulf. Tracts 112.01, 104.12 and 112.02 are the furthest from N aples and from the Gulf but are still near the other tracts clustered in this area. Collier County experienced a 65% increase in its population between 1990-T ract19902000GrowthTract19902000Growth Collier County total census tracts 4132,6966,761151% 102.021,2658,106541%4192,7156,369135% 112.015923,384472%4275,00810,727114% 104.051,1935,802386%4293,0766,228102% 104.121,4836,874364% St. Johns County total census tracts 112.021,3045,790344%2086,59217,961172% 105.041,7766,464264%207.024,48911,974167% 104.072,2606,926206%2114,6187,60365% 104.131,0543,159200%207.034,5646,89151% 104.062,3887,007193% Santa Rosa County total census tracts 105.032,4677,230193%108.021,3673,714172% 101.012,3686,802187%108.053,6739,740165% 102.043,2627,383126%108.063,5607,532112% 105.023,3387,028111%1033,3656,61196% 108.023,1296,541109%108.015,80610,12074% Flagler County total census tracts 108.075,1388,90373% 602.025,34013,390151%107.034,9678,13664% 602.015,29010,50399% Sumter County total census tracts 601.013,7765,65950%990823610,3614290% Gilchrist County total census tracts 99032,6697,033164% 95012,9174,39050%99065,1118,27262% 95026,75010,04749% W akulla County total census tract Hendry County total census tracts 102.021,8134,253135% 5 1,4133,986182%102.013,0085,64288% 3 3,9426,92676% W alton County total census tracts 4 7,39911,07250%95064,9959,73795% Osceola County total census tracts 95055,3507,47840% 4261,7358,736404%95035,2047,15037% 4211,3504,935266%95042,1492,92936% 4112,2577,042212%95015,7487,74335% 4082,8268,780211%95024,3145,56429% T able 2.7 Selected Population Growth Rates at the Census Tract Level 2000 and Table 2.9 shows that much of this growth occurred in these areas around Naples. F lagler County is another coastal county but is located in northeast Florida along the Atlantic Ocean. Flagler County experienced a 74% increase in its population with much of this growth occurring within census tracts 602.02 and 602.01. Tract 602.02 is located near F laglers largest city of Palm Coast while tract 602.01 is a much larger area encompassing virtually the entire western half of the county. Tract 601.01 is located

PAGE 21

15 in the northeastern area of the county, and although it is not located on the ocean, it is near the ocean. In contrast, Gilchrist County is an interior county located in central Florida and is one of the smallest in the state with fewer than 15,000 residents. Gilchrist County is comprised of only two census tracts, 9501 and 9502. Tract 9501 encompasses the northern and western areas of the county while tract 9502 covers the southern and eastern areas. Both tracts grew at near equal rates, however tract 9502 has more than twice as many residents as 9501, which could be due to its proximity to Gainesville. The entire county experienced an overall increase in its population of 49%. H endry County is another interior county but is located in south Florida. H endry County grew 40% between 1990-2000. Census tract 5 spreads eastw est across the county and is near Palm Beach County on the eastern side and Collier County on the southwest side. Although this tract has far fewer residents than the other tracts within the county, it is growing at a faster rate. The tract with the second highest growth rate was tract 3 on the southwest side of the county near Collier. Finally, tract 4 is located in the northwest corner. O sceoloa County is similar to Hendry in that it is also an interior county but it is further north and has a population exceeding 100,000. Osceola Countys population increased 60% with much of its growth occurring the northern areas of the county in census tracts located near other counties and the areas nearest to Orlando. Census tracts 426, 421 and 419 are also near Kissimmee, one of the largest cities in the area. Almost 60% of Osceolas entire growth came from the eight census tracts listed in the table. S t. Johns County is very similar to F lagler County in its location along Fl oridas Atlantic coastline but its population is more than double that of F lagler. St. Johns County is comprised of 19 census tracts. The tracts with the highest rates of growth were tracts 208 and 207.02. Tract 208 is located just south of the Duval-St. Johns County divider on the St. Johns River providing easy access to the Jacksonville metropolitan area. This is also true of tracts 207.02 and 207.03, which are located on the eastern side of the county near the Atlantic Ocean. S umter County, an interior county located in central Florida, experienced a 69% increase in its population between 1990 and 2000, with much of this growth occurring within tract 9908 in the extreme northeastern area of the county near Marion County and the city of Ocala. The tract with the second largest increase was 9903 located in the middle of the eastern area of the county near Lake County and the city of Leesburg. In contrast, tract 9906 is located in the southwestern area of the county near Hernando County. A significant portion of Sumter Countrys growth, particularly in tract 9908, can be attributed to The Villages, a large r etirement community. Three of the counties examined here are located in the panhandle region of northwest Florida along Floridas Gulf Coast: Santa Rosa County, Wakulla County, and Walton County. Within S anta Rosa County, census tract 108.05 experienced the largest absolute increase in its population. All but one of the census tracts listed in Table 2.9 for Santa Rosa are located on or near bodies of water along the southern edge of the county such as Easy Bay, Santa Rosa Sound, Bladewater Ba y, and Escambia Bay. The exception is tract 103 located in the middle of the western edge of the county near its border with Escambia County. In contrast, Wakulla Countys growth was more widespread throughout the county, however tract 102.02 grew at the highest rate. This tract covers a large area that spreads north-south between Leon County and the Gulf of Mexico. The northern area of this tract is located not far from the city of Tallahassee. Tract

PAGE 22

16The State of FloridasHousing 2004 102.01 is to the west of tract 102.02. It does not spread north to the county line but does spread south to the coastline. F inally, over one-third of Walton Countys growth occurred within tract 9506 located along the Gulf of Mexico between Panama City and Destin. Tract 9505 is located just north of tract 9506 but is still not far from the coast. Over 50% of the countys growth occurred within these two census tracts. The population growth within these tracts was diverse. Table 2.8 shows several census tracts relied almost exclusively on the age 65+ population for growth. Se ve nty-two percent of the population growth in census tract 102.04 in Collier County and 54% of the population growth in tract 9908 in Sumter County came from increases in this age group. When this age group is combined with the near retirement age group of 55-65, these percentages increase to 96% and 89%, respectively. There are four additional census tracts in Collier County where the 55+ population accounted for over 50% of the population growth in the County. This is also true for census tract 601.01 in Flagler County where these age groups account for 52% of the entire population increase between 1990-2000. On the other end of the age spectrum are Hendry County and sections of Osceola County and Collier County. Hendry is a r elatively young county. Five of its six census tracts experienced over 30% of their growth in the population under the age of 22. In fact, half of the census tracts experienced over 40% of their growth in this age group. None of the census tracts could credit the 55+ population with more than 25% of their growth. In the middle of the age spectrum is the working age population, primarily those age 35-54. Census tracts 9502 in W alton County, 9903 in Sumter County, and 108.06 in Santa Rosa County experienced 58%, 53%, and 50% of their population increase from the working age 35-54 population group, respectively. In fact, in Walton County, this age group had the largest growth rate in every census tract within the county. This pattern was also true for every census tract in Gilchrist County and Wakulla County, and for the selected high growth census tracts in St. Johns County and S anta Rosa County. In Sumters other high growth census tract, 9906, this is also true.County T able 2.8 Population Increases by Age Group% of Total Population Increase < 1818-2122-3435-5455-6565+ Collier 101.014,43310%2%7%20%17%45% Collier 102.026,84120%2%11%29%14%24% Collier 102.044,123-3%0%0%8%24%72% Collier 104.054,60921%2%11%31%16%20% Collier 104.064,61913%1%6%26%19%35% Collier 104.074,66219%1%3%33%17%26% Collier 104.125,39227%5%12%39%11%6% Collier 104.132,11235%3%18%31%1%13% Collier 105.023,6909%1%3%17%22%48% Collier 105.034,76519%2%10%28%14%27% Collier 105.044,68618%7%13%20%12%31% Collier 108.023,41527%10%19%19%11%13% Collier 112.012,79214%-1%5%22%22%38% Collier 112.024,48033%4%17%33%8%4% Flagler 601.011,88322%-1%1%27%17%35% Flagler 602.015,21525%5%2%35%13%20% Census T ract Population Increase

PAGE 23

17 Flagler 602.028,04517%2%9%27%14%30% Gilchrist 95011,47325%5%8%37%10%15% Gilchrist 95023,29722%16%9%32%9%12% Hendry 3 2,98427%13%35%18%4%3% Hendry 4 3,67333%7%17%27%5%11% Hendry 5 2,57627%23%16%21%7%6% Osceola 4085,95324%4%18%34%10%11% Osceola 4114,78735%2%16%32%7%8% Osceola 4134,06333%4%16%28%8%10% Osceola 4193,66031%8%28%24%2%6% Osceola 4213,59836%8%30%24%2%0% Osceola 4267,00229%3%20%29%8%10% Osceola 4275,71531%5%21%27%7%8% Osceola 4293,16226%2%15%38%7%12% St. Johns 207.027,48528%2%7%39%10%13% St. Johns 207.032,32719%-1%-6%41%12%35% St. Johns 20811,36435%2%9%42%6%5% St. Johns 2112,98526%0%14%37%9%14% Santa Rosa 1033,24634%2%4%48%7%6% Santa Rosa 107.033,16526%5%1%44%13%10% Santa Rosa 108.014,31416%3%29%35%10%6% Santa Rosa 108.022,34732%5%15%35%8%6% Santa Rosa 108.056,06829%3%9%40%8%10% Santa Rosa 108.063,96928%3%3%50%7%8% Santa Rosa 108.073,76425%-1%7%40%14%15% Sumter 99034,3631%1%35%53%5%5% Sumter 99063,16011%6%21%38%7%16% Sumter 990810,1222%0%2%8%35%54% W akulla 102.012,63429%3%21%31%10%7% W akulla 102.022,44016%3%17%49%9%5% W alton 95011,99519%1%15%40%15%10% W alton 95021,250-10%5%39%58%3%5% W alton 95031,94625%13%2%42%7%12% W alton 950478021%10%3%49%10%7% W alton 95052,12833%0%8%36%6%17% W alton 95064,74217%4%11%38%12%18% County% of Total Population Increase < 1818-2122-3435-5455-6565+ Census T ract Population Increase T able 2.8 Population Increases by Age Group (continued)

PAGE 24

18The State of FloridasHousing 2004 These tables have provided a wealth of information about the changes that have occurred in Florida over the past decade, but they have given no indication of when these changes have occurred. In other words, did these changes occur steadily over time or have there been r ecent increases? Table 2.9 below indicates the number of residents in each census tract that lived in the United States in 1995. It also identifies, for those r esidents, what percent lived within the same county and, of those that moved into the county over the past five years, what percent moved from another state. W ithin the 52 census tracts, only seven had at least half of their population r esiding within the county in 1995. Thus, not only has growth occurred in these areas, it has occurred recently. For those residents that lived within the U nited States in 1995 that moved to a new Florida county, in most instances they moved from another state and did not simply migrate from another Florida county. Thirty-three of the fifty-two census tracts experienced over 50% of their population increase from residents moving from other states. County T able 2.9 Location of Residence in 1995Collier 101.014,1571,2672,8907992,09130%72% Collier 102.025,6692,0363,6338282,80536%77% Collier 102.043,5141,2842,2302182,01237%90% Collier 104.053,6881,2752,4136541,75935%73% Collier 104.064,3261,7952,5314612,07041%82% Collier 104.073,6791,3932,2865471,73938%76% Collier 104.123,0731,7231,35074061056%45% Collier 104.131,38797641121120070%49% Collier 105.023,5971,4022,1952251,97039%90% Collier 105.033,9261,4992,4278461,58138%65% Collier 105.043,8901,3862,5047671,73736%69% Collier 108.022,9311,7901,14132681561%71% Collier 112.012,3259151,4102331,17739%83% Collier 112.023,1191,3481,77198978243%44% Flagler 601.012,8188491,9695041,46530%74% Flagler 602.014,6781,5313,1471,2141,93333%61% Flagler 602.027,0472,2584,7891,2693,52032%74% Gilchrist 95011,26034891267224028%26% Gilchrist 95024,1921,0393,1532,56059325%19% Hendry 3 2,6261,3061,32084547550%36% Hendry 4 4,0812,3191,7621,12064257%36% Hendry 5 1,44861683266416843%20% Osceola 4085,2251,1394,0862,0152,07122%51% Osceola 4113,6341,1002,5349591,57530%62% Osceola 4133,3199972,3227181,60430%69% Osceola 4193,1888432,3457001,64526%70% Census T ract Lived in US in 1995 Lived in Same County Lived in Different County% of Population Living in Same County as 1995 % of Migrants Living in Different State in 1995 T otalIn FLIn Different State

PAGE 25

19 Osceola 4213,0279062,1216591,46230%69% Osceola 4263,6781,1792,4998371,66232%67% Osceola 4274,6071,6053,0021,1001,90235%63% Osceola 4293,8601,8602,0009621,03848%52% St. Johns 207.026,6091,5195,0901,7693,32123%65% St. Johns 207.033,3639612,4021,0901,31229%55% St. Johns 20810,3491,0089,3414,5714,77010%51% St. Johns 2113,6342,1651,46972874160%50% Santa Rosa 1033,0111,2991,71274996343%56% Santa Rosa 107.033,3029262,3761,3421,03428%44% Santa Rosa 108.014,7551,4413,3142,2221,09230%33% Santa Rosa 108.021,8284901,3383311,00727%75% Santa Rosa 108.055,3641,5563,8081,1822,62629%69% Santa Rosa 108.063,8407103,1301,1411,98918%64% Santa Rosa 108.074,6691,4213,2481,0522,19630%68% Sumter 99033,8154723,3432,1681,17512%35% Sumter 99064,1169233,1931,8381,35522%42% Sumter 99088,674798,5952,2266,3691%74% W akulla 102.012,3459611,3841,13125341%18% W akulla 102.022,3094481,8611,49936219%19% W alton 95012,7011,1971,50481269244%46% W alton 95022,5168921,6241,20641835%26% W alton 95032,9551,5191,43687156551%39% W alton 950493444249234215047%30% W alton 95053,0271,2381,7891,04474541%42% W alton 95065,4401,2784,1621,2362,92623%70%These findings suggest some important implications for the future. Those areas that have relied most heavily on increases in the retirement age population for population growth could be susceptible to decreases in their rate of growth, or even experience negative growth, if these areas are heavily reliant on non-Floridian population migration. If more attractive options become available either within the state or in other states, these individuals may not continue to migrate into these areas in CountyCensus T ract Lived in US in 1995 Lived in Same County Lived in Different County% of Population Living in Same County as 1995 % of Migrants Living in Different State in 1995 T otalIn FLIn Different State the future. On the other hand, as the populations in these areas grow, they may become even more desirable locations as r etirees seek communities with many amenities. However, the retiree population will not contribute to the natural population growth in the future the way that those areas with large growth in their youth and working age populations will. T able 2.9 Location of Residence in 1995 (continued)

PAGE 26

20The State of FloridasHousing 2004 Section 2.5 Changes in IncomeIn addition to changes in the population level, changes in income levels will affect an individuals willingness and ability to pay for housing. T able 2.10 shows changes in the median income level for households and families at the county level3. These amounts for 1990 and 2000 are expressed in terms of r eal 1999 Dollars. This means the 1990 values have been inflated to represent their purchasing power in 1999, and the 2000 values have been deflated to r epresent their purchasing power in 1999. This adjustment is required in order to make comparisons between the values since the amount of goods an individual could buy with a dollar in 1990 is different from the amount that could be purchased with a dollar in 2000. The inflation index used was the Consumer Price Index (CPI) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and can be found at http://www.bls.gov. All but five of Floridas counties experienced some positive increase in their median family income level between 1990-2000. These five counties and the percent change in their median income levels are: Brevard (0%), Hardee (-1%), Hendry (-2%), Miami-Dade (4%), and St. Lucie (-1%). The counties that experienced the largest increases in the median family income were Dixie (19%), Holmes (22%), Jefferson (20%) and St. Johns (28%). It is interesting to note that the counties listed in this second group all had modest population increases due to increases in their foreign born populations and relied more extensively on new residents born in other U. S. states. S t. Johns County experienced the largest percentage increase in its median family income level and as a result, now has the highest median income level in the state. Its neighbor Duval County had a modest 6% increase in its median income. One reason for this could be migration of high-earners from Duval to S t. Johns County. Although this information is not obtainable, we can determine what percentage of St. Johns r esidents lived in the county in 1995, and of those that did not, what percentage lived within the state or elsewhere. This and other specific details regarding St. J ohns County can be found in section 2.6 that follows.Household IncomeFamily Income County19902000% Change19902000% Change Alachua $29,671$31,4266%$42,190$46,58710% Baker $34,685$40,03515%$37,958$43,50315% Bay $33,164$36,0929%$37,911$42,72913% Bradford $33,085$33,1400%$37,750$39,1234% Brevard $41,024$40,099-2%$47,564$47,5710% Broward $41,074$41,6912%$49,444$50,5312% Calhoun $25,010$26,5756%$29,557$32,84811% Charlotte $34,591$36,3795%$39,664$42,6538% Citrus $28,597$31,0018%$32,870$36,71112% Clay $46,836$48,8544%$50,758$53,8146% Collier $45,682$48,2896%$51,630$54,8166% Columbia $29,506$30,8815%$34,893$35,9273% DeSoto $28,163$30,7149%$31,915$34,7269% Dixie $20,664$26,08226%$26,188$31,15719% Duval $38,309$40,7036%$45,073$47,6896% 3F amilies consist of A group of two or more people who reside together and who are related by birth, marriage, or adoption. Households include includes all the people who occupy a housing unit as their usual place of residence. This definition does not necessitate any relationship between the individuals in the residence. These definitions can be found in the Census glossary at http://www.census.gov/main/www/cen2000.html. T able 2.10 Median Income (1999 Dollars)

PAGE 27

21 Escambia $33,801$35,2344%$39,621$41,7085% Flagler $38,463$40,2145%$42,228$45,5028% Franklin $23,172$26,75615%$27,591$31,15713% Gadsden $26,851$31,24816%$32,367$36,23812% Gilchrist $27,720$30,3289%$30,709$34,48512% Glades $27,794$30,77411%$31,137$34,22310% Gulf $29,378$30,2763%$34,897$36,2894% Hamilton $25,136$25,6382%$29,543$30,6774% Hardee $29,645$30,1832%$32,685$32,487-1% Hendry $33,460$33,5920%$35,785$34,902-2% Hernando $30,554$32,5727%$34,509$37,5099% Highlands $28,411$30,1606%$32,736$35,6479% Hillsborough $38,260$40,6636%$45,204$48,2237% Holmes $23,164$27,92321%$28,111$34,28622% Indian River $38,911$39,6352%$45,102$46,3853% Jackson $26,160$29,74414%$32,432$36,40412% Jefferson $29,265$32,99813%$33,655$40,40720% Lafayette $27,871$30,65110%$32,255$35,0209% Lake $31,432$36,90317%$36,476$42,57717% Lee $38,221$40,3195%$43,410$46,4307% Leon $36,710$37,5172%$49,711$52,9627% Levy $25,268$26,9597%$30,556$30,8991% Liberty $29,898$28,840-4%$33,888$34,2441% Madison $24,389$26,5339%$29,894$31,7536% Manatee $34,866$38,67311%$41,244$46,57613% Marion $30,165$31,9446%$35,052$37,4737% Martin $42,671$43,0831%$50,695$53,2445% Miami-Dade $36,154$35,966-1%$41,802$40,260-4% Monroe $39,434$42,2837%$45,554$50,73411% Nassau $40,619$46,02213%$46,675$52,47712% Okaloosa $37,540$41,47410%$42,539$47,71112% Okeechobee $28,788$30,4566%$31,564$35,16311% Orange $40,645$41,3112%$46,581$47,1591% Osceola $36,625$38,2144%$41,658$42,0611% Palm Beach $43,698$45,0623%$51,779$53,7014% Pasco $28,859$32,96914%$34,173$39,56816% Pinellas $35,330$37,1115%$43,845$46,9257% Polk $33,879$36,0366%$38,916$41,4426% Putnam $27,079$28,1804%$32,033$34,4998% St. Johns $40,207$50,09925%$46,038$59,15328% St. Lucie $37,230$36,363-2%$41,954$41,381-1% Santa Rosa $37,060$41,88113%$41,694$46,92913% Sarasota $40,198$41,9574%$47,457$50,1116% Seminole $47,880$49,3263%$54,725$56,8954% Sumter $26,312$32,07322%$31,825$36,99916% Suwannee $26,569$29,96313%$31,485$34,0328% T aylor $28,725$30,0325%$33,818$35,0614% Union $30,675$34,56313%$36,706$37,5162% V olusia $33,344$35,2196%$39,719$41,7675% W akulla $33,614$37,14911%$37,364$42,22213% W alton $28,614$32,40713%$33,887$37,66311% W ashington $24,541$27,92214%$29,862$33,05711% Household IncomeFamily Income County19902000% Change19902000% Change T able 2.10 Median Income (1999 Dollars) (continued)

PAGE 28

22The State of FloridasHousing 2004 Section 2.6 Profile of St. Johns CountyS t. Johns County is one of many counties that experienced large population growth along its border with another county. This could be the result of worker migration. The following tables provide statistics for St. Johns County to determine whether its growth could be the result of such a phenomenon. Table 2.11 below reveals the census tracts that experienced the highest rates of growth were 208, 207.02, 211, and 207.03. Census tracts 207.02 and 207.03 are located very near to the county line between Duval and St. Johns County and are also located near the coastline.Census PopulationMedian Family Income T ract19902000Growth19902000Growth 202 2,8502,373-17%$32,232$46,21643% 203 3,1523,2343%$21,813$31,10643% 204 3,1652,915-8%$19,211$33,95877% 205 3,6233,8917%$40,185$55,91539% 206 4,9537,34748%$34,539$58,95871% 207.01 5,6777,98541%$45,314$73,80263% 207.02 4,48911,974167%$59,855$93,34756% 207.03 4,5646,89151%$67,457$101,62051% 208 6,59217,961172%$49,047$83,48270% 209 5,7827,28026%$28,852$46,94463% 210.01 5,1776,89533%$25,646$39,56154% 210.02 2,8982,8870%$18,003$33,57687% 211 4,6187,60365%$23,044$40,12274% 212.01 3,5185,03743%$32,500$47,89347% 212.02 5,1896,26921%$33,087$47,36943% 213.01 3,7924,57521%$31,518$39,50025% 213.02 4,5285,56823%$36,839$55,51551% 214.01 5,8777,97936%$33,410$57,96974% 214.02 3,3864,47132%$34,139$61,59880% T able 2.11 St. Johns County Census Tracts

PAGE 29

23 Ta ble 2.12 below indicates the St. J ohns residents location of work. Between 1990-2000 the number of re sidents within census tracts 204, 207.02, 208, and 211 who worked outside of their county of residence increased by 100% or more. However, it should also be noted that tracts 207.02 and 208 had even larger growth in the number of workers that work within the county.W orkers 2000 T able 2.12 Worker Population GrowthCensus Tract LevelW orkers 1990In County Growth Out of County Growth Census T ract In State In County Out of County In State In County Out of County 202 1,1939862071,1891,084105-9%97% 203 1,5151,3062091,3611,2241377%53% 204 1,2681,0951731,2991,22574-11%134% 205 1,9921,8201721,7191,47624323%-29% 206 4,0132,6661,3472,2821,55772571%86% 207.01 4,3311,3133,0183,3876872,70091%12% 207.02* 5,5482,2993,2492,1536801,473238%121% 207.03* 2,9271,0581,8691,9705861,38481%35% 208* 8,7661,6107,1563,2755042,771219%158% 209 3,4482,2991,1492,6741,91476020%51% 210.01 3,2762,4318452,2761,73254440%55% 210.02 1,2061,1001061,17198718411%-42% 211* 3,3792,7046751,9131,57633772%100% 212.01 2,1271,7943331,4831,20427949%19% 212.02 2,6332,2583752,0191,66935035%7% 213.01 2,0031,7752281,8271,61021710%5% 213.02 2,7732,2465272,2101,91030018%76% 214.01 3,9463,3366102,9492,54240731%50% 214.02 1,7111,3423691,3571,10525221%46% indicates areas of highest population growth Ev en though many census tracts within St. Johns County did experience migration from other counties within the state of Florida, this was not the primary source of population increase for St. J ohns census tracts that had the highest rates of growth. This can be seen in Table 2.13 below. It is important to note, however, that these data only reveal whether the population migrated between 1995-2000 and does not account for whether the residents that r eported living in the same county in 1995 migrated to the county between 1990-1995. It would appear as though S t. Johns growth is not necessarily caused by losses from neighboring Duval County.

PAGE 30

24The State of FloridasHousing 2004 Section 2.7 ConclusionF loridas population growth is diverse. It stems from increases in foreign-born migration, state-to-state migration, as well as growth in the native Floridian population. Additionally, its population growth is not driven solely by retirees, but also stems from growth in its youth population as well as its working age population. Floridas counties have been faced with diverse growth within their boundaries as well with some census tracts within counties experiencing large growth in the elderly population while other tracts are experiencing large increases in younger age groups. The needs of these residents are different. Large growth in the school-age population will force communities to focus on access to schools while growth in the elderly population will result inT ractfocus on other community amenities. By and large, Floridas residents are experiencing real income increases that will affect their ability to afford housing and the type of housing they choose. F loridas growth is continuing in its coastal communities but is also occurring in many rural areas located near urban centers. Although many are aware of the high growth in South Florida, it is evident that all of Florida has benefited ov er the past decade. T able 2.13 Location of Residence in 1995Census Tract Level2021,10150759428930546%49% 2031,43887955930625361%55% 2041,7235681,15563452133%55% 2051,66985081928953051%35% 2063,6671,3342,3331,2801,05336%55% 207.014,5941,1623,4321,4661,96625%43% 207.02*6,6091,5195,0901,7693,32123%35% 207.03*3,3639612,4021,0901,31229%45% 208*10,3491,0089,3414,5714,77010%49% 2093,4601,6381,82289293047%49% 210.013,0451,8161,22972150860%59% 210.021,12187025114510678%58% 211*3,6342,1651,46972874160%50% 212.012,4251,1771,24831393549%25% 212.022,8291,0061,8235991,22436%33% 213.012,1911,1541,03733370453%32% 213.021,66771195636858843%38% 214.014,1151,4922,6239891,63436%38% 214.022,5207471,7736071,16630%34% Lived In US 1995 Same County 1995 Different County 1995 % Lived in Same County % of Migrants from within State T otal Different County, Same State Different County, Different State

PAGE 31

25 3. Floridas Housing SupplyD ouglas White, Florida Housing Data Clearinghouse, Shimberg Center, U niversity of Florida Ma rc T. Smith, Ph.D., Shimberg Center, University of Florida Fl oridas housing stock includes singlefamily units, multifamily units, and manufactured units. Although all three types of housing units are represented, the housing inventory is dominated by the single-family home. About 58 percent of the states single family housing stock is located in six major metropolitan areas: Fort Lauderdale, J acksonville, Miami, Orlando, Tampa-St. P etersburg, and West Palm Beach-Boca Raton. The Fort Lauderdale and Miami MSAs, because of their density, also have the distinction of having the most multifamily housing of any area in the state. Although not a type of structure, condominium housing is an important housing category in some areas of the state. Broward, Miami-Dade, and Palm Beach Counties alone have 58 percent of the states condominiums. Significant concentrations of condominiums are also found in Collier, Lee, Pinellas, and S arasota Counties. Clearly, condominiums tend to be a coastal phenomenon.3.1 Data DescriptionTo understand and analyze Floridas stock of housing, tax assessment records from the 67 county property appraisers are examined. From all 67 counties, the S himberg Center obtains data on the four major categories of residentially coded parcels. This results in a database that contains information on residential parcels of land and most residential structures in Florida, including: parcel identification; land use code (vacant r esidential, single-family, condominium, etc.); total assessed value; assessed land value; relative year in which structure was built; square footage of the structure; parcel size; date and price of the two most r ecent sales; ad valorem tax jurisdiction; homestead exemption; and location of the property by section, township, and range. The database contains most but not all residential structures, excluding (1) residential structures located on land that is not residentially coded, such as r esidential structures located on land that has an agriculture coding or residential structures that have a commercial coding (2) manufactured housing not classified as real property (this problem is discussed in more detail later in the report) and (3) structures that are not one of the four major residential land use categories examined. The data, unless otherwise noted, are for roll year 2003, the last complete year for which data are available. U se of the individual county property appraiser data allows us to reasonably compare housing characteristics in the counties with each other. However, there are gaps and limitations in these Department of Revenue (DOR) data sets. Gaps occur because in some counties, certain fields of data are not included in the records or are missing for specific property types. For example, in many counties the year built information or square footage is missing for condominiums1 and/or multi-family units. The sales data also has some limitations. In a few cases only one year of sales data is reported. Limitations on the data can occur for two reasons. First, only the two most recent sales prices and y ear of those sales are reported. Any time 1In order to make the county comparisons as similar and accurate as possible, the Shimberg Center has adopted a r ule that 2/3 of the unit type observations must have valid year built entries or valid square footage entries to r eport the number of units by year built, new construction, mean/median year built, the median size by year built, and/or the mean/median size of the unit types.

PAGE 32

26The State of FloridasHousing 2004 a parcel sells, the older of the two sales is lost, and therefore when examining the county data, there are two potential explanations for the increasing frequency of sales over time. The first is that sales r eally have increased over time, and the second is that this increased frequency is just a statistical anomaly due to properties selling multiple times, eliminating the older records. In an attempt to overcome this problem, we have introduced a major change to this years report. We have merged sales data from the previous three roll years (2000, 2001, and 2002) with the current roll year. This combination of data allows us to capture more sales for each parcel and should increase the accuracy of the sales price time series. While this change makes the sales price and number of sales time series more accurate, the decreasing number of sales is still partially a remnant of the ways the sales are reported. As we add more roll y ears to the dataset, this problem should decrease in significance. A second limitation in the data is that definitions vary somewhat across counties; an example of this is square footage. Property appraisers calculate and use more than one measurement of square footage in their appraisal process. Thus, this characteristic can vary across counties and possibly over time within the county. Another reason square footage can vary is the presence of multiple buildings on a parcel, which show up in the value for square footage field2. Another problem that has to be addressed when creating the database is that the data must be cleaned. For example, any sales prices that are determined to be a non-arms-length transaction (by the DOR transaction code) are deleted from the sales price calculations. Additionally, any observations with obvious mispricing (due to data entry or other error) or which are not considered a sale for purposes of the report are deleted. For example, the older of two recent sale prices for a newly constructed home is usually the sale of the lot; a price not comparable to the sale price after the home has been constructed. Finally, data entry problems exist that have required the development of screening rules to eliminate information that falls outside r easonable boundaries. D espite these problems, the property appraiser data provides information on F loridas housing stock that is not otherwise available. For example, decennial Census data, because of delays due to its release and the fact that it is only conducted once a decade, means that variables such as median housing prices may be dated and less than accurate. The Census is also subject to inaccuracies in evaluating housing unit characteristics because it relies on the evaluation by the occupants for estimates of numerous variables such as property value and age. Other sources, while current and valuable, are subject to limitations of geographic coverage or amount of information available.3The following section describes the existing single-family housing stock in F lorida. Subsequent sections provide detailed information on the condominium market and the multifamily housing market. Although manufactured housing accounts for a significant portion of residential housing units in many rural counties, we are unable to describe and discuss Floridas manufactured housing stock because comprehensive, accurate data are not available from the property appraiser data 2To make the county comparisons as similar as possible, only parcels with one building are used in the size calculations.3In the National Association of Realtors (NAR) H ome Sales the median sale price of existing single-family homes, condos, and co-ops sold in each quarter are reported for the nine largest metropolitan areas in Florida. In addition, the Florida Association of Realtors (FAR) produces the F lorida Home Sales Report that contains information on monthly sales volume and median sale prices for the 20 major metropolitan areas. While quite valuable, the NAR and FAR reports do not contain information on characteristics other than sale price and volume, and in addition are based only on MLS sales. Moreover, numerous counties are excluded.

PAGE 33

27 at our disposal. Accurate data on manufactured housing is difficult to obtain for several reasons. First, a manufactured home is classified as real property if the owner owns both the home and the lot. It is these homes that are included in the property appraiser files. Other manufactured housing, at least 50%, is located on rented sites and carries a tag from the Division of Motor V ehicles.4 Fu rther, even combining these sources results in data that are not consistent from year to year. In addition to reporting problems, possible causes of inconsistencies include units not counted because of confusion about their status, failure to renew a tag, units placed on land and not reported to the appraiser, or uncertainty about the location of the unit (i.e. in a city or in the unincorporated portion of a county).3.2 GeographyThe housing data are examined at the county level and the metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) level. A MSA is an area with a high degree of social and economic integration, a population of 100,000 or more, and contains at least one city of 50,000 or more. The MSA is named after its central city or cities. F lorida has 21 MSAs that contain 35 of its 67 counties. The states 21 metropolitan areas (MSAs) are further divided into major metropolitan areas (6 MSAs) and other metropolitan areas (15 MSAs). The major MSAs include Ft. Lauderdale, M iami, Jacksonville, Orlando, West Palm Beach-Boca Raton, and Tampa-St. P etersburg-Clearwater. As figure 3.1 shows, a total of fifteen counties make up the major MSAs. The 15 other MSAs 4The decennial US Census counts all manufactured housing, and therefore reports a drastically different number of total housing units for some of the rural counties than the corresponding county property appraiser. This difference is almost one hundred percent due to the difference in reported manufactured housing.Figure 3.1 Floridas 6 Major Metropolitan Areas27

PAGE 34

28The State of FloridasHousing 2004 include twenty counties, which are shown in figure 3.2. A total of 35 of Floridas 67 counties are therefore found in metropolitan areas, with the remaining 32 being nonmetropolitan.5 These remaining 32 counties are further categorized, as shown in figure 3.3, into four regional groups: No r thwest, Northeast, Central, and S outh, according to categories used by the University of Floridas Bureau of E conomic and Business Research.3.3 Single-Family Housing6Su mmary data by county, with aggregations to metropolitan and state totals, are included in Table 3.1. The single-family housing stock of F lorida increased by over 100,000 units to total almost 4 million units in 2002 and the total assessed value of these units increased by over $50 billion to $504.5 billion in assessed value in 2002. Almost 77.6% of these units are occupied by their owner; the remaining units are r enter-occupied. The mean age of housing units in the state decreased to 24 years, and the average size is 1,954 square feet. The number of single-family sales in 2002 totaled 307,695, which is equal to 7.72 percent of the total singlefamily housing stock in this state.7 The median price of a 2002 sale increased to $143,600, but remained lower than both the 2002 new median house price of $187,600 and the 2002 existing house price of $158,100 in the U.S.8As shown in figure 3.4, Floridas housing is geographically concentrated. The six major MSAs contain slightly more than 2.3 million single-family units and these units comprise about 58 percent of the total housing stock in the state. Almost 29 percent of the major 5M ultiple-county MSAs are as follows: Daytona Beach MSA includes Flagler and Volusia Counties. Ft. PiercePo rt S t. Lucie MSA includes Martin and St. Lucie Counties. Jacksonville MSA includes Clay, Duval, Nassau and S t. Johns Counties. Orlando MSA includes Lake, Orange, Osceola and Seminole Counties. Pensacola MSA includes Escambia and Santa Rosa Counties. Sarasota-Bradenton MSA includes Manatee and Sarasota Counties. T allahassee MSA includes Gadsden and Leon Counties. Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater MSA includes Hernando, H illsborough, Pasco and Pinellas Counties.6The appendix has County specific data that is summarized in the following tables. New to this years report, the appendix also contains jurisdiction specific data for each county.7The number of sales depends on what classes of transactions are regarded as qualified sales. For example, the total quoted here includes only sales that were arms-length transactions.8The sources for these national prices are: new single family U.S. Census Bureau, Survey of Construction/Housing S ales Survey; existing single family National Association of Realtors, Existing Home Sales Survey.Figure 3.2 Floridas Remaining 15 Metropolitan Areas

PAGE 35

29 Figure 3.3 Floridas 4 Non-metropolitan AreasMSA total, comprising nearly 17 percent of the state, is found in the Tampa-St. P etersburg-Clearwater MSA (which we will refer to as Tampa Bay). The Orlando MSA has almost 20 percent of the major MSA total, representing 11.4 percent of the states single-family stock, the Ft. Lauderdale MSA about 9 percent of the state total, and the Miami and J acksonville MSAs each representing 7.8 percent of the state total. Of single county MSAs, Miami and Ft. Lauderdale have the largest numbers of single-family housing units in the state. Together, these two counties contain over 16.7 percent of the states single-family units. Adding P alm Beach County results in almost 22 percent of the states single-family stock being located in the these three southeast F lorida counties.

PAGE 36

30The State of Floridas Housing, 2004 T able 3.1 Single-Family Housing Stock9T otal % of% OwnerAssessed% of T otal Units StateOccupiedValue($mils)StateFlorida3,986,553100.00%77.56%$504,533.4100.00% Fort Lauderdale, FL MSABroward County356,7648.95%80.89%$54,196.410.74% Jacksonville, FL MSAClay County40,6141.02%83.94%$4,163.90.83% Duval County215,0265.39%80.23%$21,365.74.23% Nassau County14,7190.37%77.57%$2,070.70.41% St. Johns County39,7871.00%79.63%$7,340.71.45% MSA Total310,1467.78%80.51%$34,940.96.93% Miami, FL MSAMiami-Dade County310,7117.79%80.58%$47,948.39.50% Orlando, FL MSALake County65,8271.65%77.85%$6,771.31.34% Orange County226,9005.69%77.29%$28,645.45.68% Osceola County55,1781.38%64.74%$5,812.31.15% Seminole County107,1282.69%83.04%$13,502.62.68% MSA Total455,03311.41%77.21%$54,731.610.85% T ampaSt. PetersburgHernando County47,5171.19%78.98%$4,027.70.80% Clearwater, FL MSAHillsborough County265,7126.67%82.21%$28,497.45.65% Pasco County111,5562.80%78.90%$9,639.11.91% Pinellas County241,3796.05%80.94%$27,461.45.44% MSA Total666,16416.71%80.97%$69,625.613.80% W est Palm BeachPalm Beach County203,1915.10%79.59%$43,257.38.57% Boca Raton, FL MSA Major Metropolitian Area Total2,302,00957.74%$304,700.060.39% Daytona Beach, FL MSAFlagler County23,5430.59%75.30%$2,765.30.55% V olusia County136,1233.41%79.29%$12,936.62.56% MSA Total159,6664.01%78.71%$15,701.93.11% Fort Myers Cape Coral, FL MSALee County137,0533.44%71.21%$22,064.84.37% Fort Pierce Port St. Lucie, FL MSAMartin County40,7151.02%76.30%$8,576.01.70% St. Lucie County64,9641.63%74.98%$5,799.81.15% MSA Total105,6792.65%75.49%$14,375.82.85% Fort Walton Beach, FL MSAOkaloosa County54,0441.36%71.37%$5,730.31.14% Gainesville, FL MSAAlachua County48,9521.23%78.45%$4,595.80.91% Lakeland Winter Haven, FL MSAPolk County128,3993.22%72.51%$10,167.72.02% MelbourneTitusville Palm Bay, FL MSABrevard County152,8193.83%80.34%$14,856.82.94% Naples, FL MSACollier County61,8601.55%68.72%$18,973.63.76% Ocala, FL MSAMarion County75,1521.89%76.98%$5,950.51.18% Panama City, FL MSABay County46,3281.16%66.31%$4,106.10.81% Pensacola, FL MSAEscambia County86,9242.18%74.86%$6,203.31.23% Santa Rosa County39,0220.98%79.07%$4,088.20.81% MSA Total125,9463.16%76.17%$10,291.62.04% 9(*) Less than 25 Observations, ($) Less than 2/3 of observations have valid year built entries (#) Less than 2/3 of observations have valid square footage entries

PAGE 37

31 T otal JustNew UnitsNumber ofMedian Value% ofAverageRelativeAverageConstructed% ofSales% of2002 ($mils)StateAgeAge Index Size in 2002State in 2002 StateSales Price$601,937.0100.00%241.001,954110,675100.00%307,695100.00%$143,600 $68,489.411.38%240.981,9378,3807.57%35,62411.58%$185,000 $4,593.50.76%170.712,0631,7711.60%3,5561.16%$136,350 $25,650.54.26%311.251,8064,8624.39%15,3494.99%$127,500 $2,473.30.41%200.812,0686440.58%9390.31%$175,500 $8,790.21.46%140.572,3182,0961.89%3,7491.22%$200,000 $41,507.46.90%261.071,9189,3738.47%23,5937.67%$138,600 $62,773.710.43%331.341,8891,9531.76%20,1056.53%$175,000 $7,140.61.19%200.841,5563,7083.35%6,3192.05%$132,000 $32,345.15.37%220.901,9637,4236.71%21,3386.93%$153,000 $6,149.01.02%150.621,6153,3733.05%6,1692.00%$130,000 $15,481.92.57%210.872,1571,8041.63%8,2202.67%$155,000 $61,116.610.15%210.851,90716,30814.74%42,04613.66%$145,000 $4,492.10.75%160.662,2911,4621.32%3,4051.11%$92,000 $34,083.65.66%220.911,8937,4776.76%21,1036.86%$139,000 $10,900.31.81%210.861,7764,9994.52%11,5453.75%$123,900 $34,760.35.77%341.411,7061,6501.49%15,3434.99%$131,000 $84,236.213.99%261.071,83315,58814.08%51,39616.70%$129,900 $51,993.98.64%261.062,2614,2363.83%14,6214.75%$197,000 $370,117.361.49%55,83850.45%187,38560.90% $3,081.60.51%120.492,1521,9171.73%2,2300.72%$120,000 $15,083.12.51%261.052,3083,2012.89%1,2610.41%$132,175 $18,164.83.02%240.972,2865,1184.62%3,4911.13%$123,500 $25,817.04.29%190.772,8896,6756.03%14,2464.63%$151,500 $10,160.41.69%190.801,9241,3921.26%3,8521.25%$185,000 $6,502.61.08%200.811,5582,6632.41%5,6081.82%$112,000 $16,663.02.77%200.801,7024,0553.66%9,4603.07%$134,250 $6,072.71.01%220.901,9591,2081.09%4,0721.32%$121,900 $5,227.20.87%240.971,9061,0070.91%3,3431.09%$126,000 $11,243.11.87%291.182,3064,1353.74%7,6812.50%$104,500 $17,678.42.94%230.931,6324,4814.05%11,6873.80%$119,500 $23,216.23.86%150.62(#)3,6523.30%5,3031.72%$250,000 $6,506.11.08%190.801,5534,1943.79%6,7032.18%$115,000 $4,410.50.73%240.971,8089170.83%3,1061.01%$118,000 $7,167.51.19%301.211,7901,4651.32%4,8681.58%$104,350 $4,392.50.73%180.722,0431,5751.42%3,0100.98%$125,200 $11,560.01.92%261.061,8683,0402.75%7,8782.56%$113,000

PAGE 38

32The State of Floridas Housing, 2004 T able 3.1 Single-Family Housing Stock (continued)T otal % of% OwnerAssessed% of T otal Units StateOccupiedValue($mils)StatePunta Gorda, FL MSACharlotte County56,0461.41%72.66%$6,494.91.29% Sarasota Bradenton, FL MSAManatee County66,2541.66%77.60%$9,812.71.94% Sarasota County108,8652.73%74.76%$18,338.93.63% MSA Total175,1194.39%75.84%$28,151.65.58% T allahassee, FL MSAGadsden County9,2980.23%74.75%$483.10.10% Leon County62,8961.58%74.41%$6,566.61.30% MSA Total72,1941.81%74.45%$7,049.81.40% Ve ro Beach, FL MSAIndian River County36,7730.92%73.61%$6,227.01.23% Remaining Metropolitian Area Total1,436,03036.02%$174,738.134.63% Northwest Nonmetropolitan AreaCalhoun County2,4750.06%73.78%$101.40.02% Franklin County5,6010.14%43.58%$1,021.00.20% Gulf County5,2540.13%53.35%$637.40.13% Holmes County3,2340.08%72.39%$142.20.03% Jackson County9,8350.25%71.61%$487.30.10% Jefferson County2,0390.05%71.60%$99.70.02% Liberty County1,1750.03%66.81%$46.30.01% W akulla County4,9620.12%70.05%$375.40.07% W alton County14,5090.36%54.56%$2,658.70.53% W ashington County4,1010.10%70.32%$194.70.04% Nonmetro Total53,1851.33%62.00%$5,764.01.14% Northeast Nonmetropolitan AreaBaker County3,1080.08%83.88%$197.80.04% Bradford County5,0950.13%73.44%$305.40.06% Columbia County10,8610.27%76.42%$710.50.14% Dixie County2,4830.06%61.22%$119.80.02% Gilchrist County1,8340.05%73.45%$111.10.02% Hamilton County1,9240.05%68.92%$85.30.02% Lafayette County8260.02%75.18%$39.60.01% Levy County6,2780.16%72.33%$412.50.08% Madison County3,0140.08%70.54%$135.40.03% Suwannee County5,1500.13%74.47%$290.70.06% T aylor County4,8500.12%64.89%$248.60.05% Union County1,1210.03%77.52%$55.20.01% Nonmetro Total46,5441.17%73.01%$2,711.90.54% Central Nonmetropolitan AreaCitrus County42,8101.07%79.50%$3,402.60.67% Putnam County15,5500.39%72.13%$985.10.20% Sumter County16,8200.42%77.78%$1,467.10.29% Nonmetro Total75,1801.89%77.59%$5,854.71.16% South Nonmetropolitan AreaDeSoto County5,1310.13%70.20%$322.40.06% Glades County1,5530.04%57.18%$95.60.02% Hardee County3,8830.10%74.99%$185.30.04% Hendry County4,7680.12%73.09%$317.40.06% Highlands County28,2470.71%71.31%$1,813.80.36% Monroe County23,5360.59%54.04%$7,577.01.50% Okeechobee County6,4870.16%69.97%$453.10.09% Nonmetro Total73,6051.85%65.60%$10,764.62.13% Nonmetropolitian Area Total248,5146.23%$25,095.34.97%

PAGE 39

33 T otal JustNew UnitsNumber ofMedian Value% ofAverageRelativeAverageConstructed% ofSales% of2002 ($mils)StateAgeAge Index Size in 2002State in 2002 StateSales Price$7,607.71.26%200.812,3501,5281.38%4,9021.59%$121,000 $11,775.71.96%240.982,3842,9382.65%5,9421.93%$170,000 $22,477.73.73%240.991,7313,7153.36%10,3753.37%$153,500 $34,253.45.69%240.991,9806,6536.01%16,3175.30%$160,000 $520.30.09%321.291,595990.09%2530.08%$83,000 $7,227.91.20%240.971,8661,4001.26%5,0091.63%$126,000 $7,748.21.29%251.011,8321,4991.35%5,2641.71%$125,000 $7,184.81.19%210.851,9901,3541.22%2,8300.92%$128,000 $203,353.233.78%49,51644.74%106,28334.54% $104.20.02%311.281,582210.02%720.02%$55,650 $1,095.00.18%281.151,6231590.14%2900.09%$197,500 $750.80.12%210.871,6241580.14%3070.10%$165,000 $150.60.03%331.341,506230.02%950.03%$52,500 $540.60.09%331.341,6581060.10%2620.09%$70,400 $111.10.02%281.161,676300.03%720.02%$80,000 $49.40.01%331.331,481150.01%190.01%$55,000 $419.30.07%190.801,5991770.16%3080.10%$133,500 $2,842.70.47%180.721,9347860.71%1,0770.35%$215,000 $203.20.03%251.011,561650.06%1060.03%$60,000 $6,266.81.04%251.021,6961,5401.39%2,6080.85%$140,000 $237.70.04%271.091,6621010.09%1310.04%$92,600 $330.10.05%321.321,623700.06%1650.05%$75,000 $773.30.13%281.141,8072100.19%4970.16%$86,800 $151.90.03%291.181,738360.03%740.02%$79,300 $120.00.02%240.991,644550.05%710.02%$90,000 $92.70.02%341.411,580340.03%370.01%$58,500 $45.00.01%301.251,546150.01%170.01%$50,000 $474.90.08%281.161,6551100.10%2620.09%$80,000 $143.30.02%251.001,540310.03%630.02%$58,000 $343.70.06%321.301,5951000.09%1780.06%$78,500 $263.10.04%271.101,542570.05%1630.05%$68,000 $61.70.01%271.091,704230.02%200.01%$74,000 $3,037.30.50%291.171,6628420.76%1,6780.55%$80,000 $3,847.90.64%180.752,2311,0880.98%2,6770.87%$85,000 $1,109.30.18%321.301,9701650.15%5290.17%$75,000 $1,636.30.27%140.591,7265850.53%1,5470.50%$141,900 $6,593.51.10%200.832,0651,8381.66%4,7531.54%$102,100 $342.70.06%301.221,696660.06%1880.06%$79,950 $97.10.02%261.081,539160.01%500.02%$71,050 $193.70.03%321.311,548300.03%1650.05%$59,500 $340.20.06%251.031,608460.04%2470.08%$76,000 $1,877.60.31%220.891,7254810.43%2,1720.71%$72,000 $9,230.91.53%271.091,5573460.31%1,8610.60%$325,000 $486.80.08%241.001,5981160.10%3050.10%$82,500 $12,568.92.09%251.021,6351,1010.99%4,9881.62%$118,950 $28,466.44.73%5,3214.81%14,0274.56%

PAGE 40

34The State of FloridasHousing 2004 The 15 other MSAs contain 36 percent of the states single-family housing stock, while the 32 nonmetropolitan counties contain only 6.2 percent. The non-metropolitan counties show the extremes of population densities in the state. For example, Lafayette County has fewer than 1,000 single-family units. Other counties with less than 3,000 units include Calhoun, D ixie, Gilchrist, Glades, Hamilton, J efferson, Liberty, and Union Counties. These 10 counties combined have only about one-half of one percent of the total single-family housing units in the state. B ased on property appraiser data, a total of 110,675 single-family units were constructed in the state in 2002. These units increased the size of the housing stock in the state by about 2.8 percent. S lightly more than 50 percent of the new units were constructed in the six large metropolitan areas, with 14.7 percent in the Orlando MSA and 14 percent in the Ta mpa Bay MSA. Among counties inFigure 3.4 Percentage of States Single-Family Housing Stock the smaller MSAs, Brevard and Lee had 4 percent or more of the states new construction. Lee County, with 6,675 new units, exceeded the level of new construction in all of the metropolitan counties in the state except Broward, H illsborough, and Orange. The construction numbers show rapid growth in population in several of the smaller MSAs. The total assessed value (the property appraisers estimate of the value of a home for the calculation of property taxes) of single-family units in the state shows a similar pattern. The total assessed value of single-family units in the state is approximately $504.5 billion and almost 60.4 percent of that total is found in the major MSAs. The three southeast Florida countiesMiami-Dade, Broward, and P alm Beachhave almost 29 percent of the total assessed value. The average assessed value of a single-family housing unit in Florida is about $116,000 A relative age index is constructed to compare the average age of housing units in a county or MSA to the state total. A problem with the age variable is that the age of a unit is changed if significant re modeling and renovations have been completed on a unit to reflect the date of those improvements. However, assuming that improvements to a house increase the longevity of the unit, then the improvements may represent a r easonable means to convey the age of the stock. The age variable is also not consistently recorded in all counties. Counties or MSAs with a housing stock older than Floridas average have a relative age index greater than one. Areas with a r elatively young stock have an index less than one. The housing stock in four of the major MSAs is slightly older than the state. For the other MSAs, only Lakeland-Winter Haven, Pensacola, and T allahassee have a relative age index of greater than 1. Comparisons at these high levels of aggregation, however, mask significant

PAGE 41

35 differences in individual MSAs and counties. For example, with a relative age index of 0.49, Flagler County in the Daytona Beach MSA has the newest housing stock in Florida. This reflects a single-family housing stock in Flagler with an average age of 12 years. Other counties with relative age indexes of 0.75 or below include Clay, St. Johns, Osceola, and Hernando Counties among major MSA counties; Collier and Santa Rosa Counties among the other MSAs; and Citrus, Sumter, and Walton Counties in the non-metropolitan category. Many of the counties with newer housing stocks are coastal counties that have experienced rapid growth; others are suburban counties in growing metropolitan areas. Citrus and Sumter Counties are experiencing growth related to major development targeted to retirement populations S ingle-family housing stocks that are older than the state average are generally found in large urban counties or in the ru ral, interior counties with smaller populations. The oldest single-family stock is in Hamilton and Pinellas County, with a relative age index of 1.41 and a mean age of 34 years. Other nonmetropolitan counties with a relative age index of 1.25 or greater include Bradford, Calhoun, Hardee, Holmes, Jackson, Lafayette, Liberty, Putnam, and S uwannee. Among the metropolitan counties, the oldest housing stock is found in Pinellas County with an average age of 34 years. Miami-Dade (33 years), Gadsden (32 years), Duval (31 years), Escambia (30 years), and Polk (29 years) also have relatively old housing stocks. Counties with the largest number of sales transactions in 2002 are, as expected, the largest counties in population. Approximately 60.9 percent of the single-family transactions in the state in 2002 were in the major MSA counties, with 16.7 percent in the Tampa B ay MSA and 13.7 percent in the O rlando MSA. Among individual counties Broward was the highest with 11.6 percent of the state total while Orange and Hillsborough each had approximately 6.9 percent and MiamiD ade had 6.5 percent of Floridas 2002 transactions. Nearly 23 percent of transactions in 2002 were in the three southeast Florida countiesMiamiD ade, Broward, and Palm Beach. Over 34.5 percent of all sales in 2002 we re in other MSA counties, while the re maining 4.5 percent were in the nonmetropolitan counties. Lee County had 4.6 percent of the states transactions in 2002. Brevard had 3.8 percent and, S arasota County had 3.4 percent. The highest single-family median sales prices in 2002 were in Monroe ($325,000), Collier ($250,000), Walton ($215,000), St. Johns ($200,000), F ranklin ($197,500), and Palm Beach ($197,000) Counties. Other counties with median sales prices above $150,000 include Broward, Gulf, Lee, Manatee, Ma r tin, Miami-Dade, Nassau, Orange, S arasota, and Seminole. All of theseFigure 3.5 Median 2002 Single-Family Sales Price

PAGE 42

36The State of FloridasHousing 2004 counties except Orange and Seminole are coastal counties. Counties with low median prices include a number with median prices below $60,000 in 2002: Hardee ($59,500), Hamilton ($58,500), M adison ($58,000), Calhoun ($55,650), Liberty ($55,000), Holmes ($52,500), and Lafayette ($50,000). As shown in figure 3.5, the sales price data further illustrate the differences between urban and rural counties and between coastal and non-coastal counties. The highest median prices in 2002 are in coastal counties, several of which are not major urban counties (for example, Walton). At the other extreme, counties with the lowest mean house prices are generally rural, slow growing, and located in the interior of the state.Figure 3.6 Percentage of States Condominium Stock3.4 CondominiumsThe role of condominiums in providing housing in a county is another indicator of the differences in housing stock across counties. Table 3.2 contains summary information on the states stock of condominiums. As expected, condominiums are an important source of housing in coastal counties where a number of retirees live, but not in interior counties. Summing across counties indicates that there were 1,340,915 condominium-housing units in the state in 2003, and 48.6 percent of these units are owner-occupied, much less than the 77.5 percent owner-occupied percentage found in the single-family stock. A total of 776,988 units, or 58 percent of condominium units in the state, are located in three southeast Florida counties: Miami-Dade, Broward, and P alm Beach. Figure 3.6 shows the geographical distribution of condominiums across the state. In total, the non-MSA counties have less than 2.0 percent of the total condominiums in the state, and almost 80 percent of these are found in two counties: Monroe and W alton. While other coastal metropolitan counties have a much smaller stock of condominium units than the three southeast counties, condominiums still play a major role in the provision of housing in those counties. For example, Collier Countys 78,042 condominium units far exceed the 61,860 single-family housing units in the county. Condominium units also exceed singlefamily units in Palm Beach County. O ther counties with large numbers of condominiums are Brevard, H illsborough, Lee, Manatee, Pinellas, Orange, Sarasota, and Volusia. D iscussion of the characteristics of condominiums in the state is limited by the lack of data in a number of the data fields in some counties. These fields include year built, age, and price. The

PAGE 43

37 Figure 3.7 Median 2002 Condominium Sales Price following description is based on the available data. S ome of the newest condominium stocks are located in non-metropolitan counties, for example Franklin, with a mean age of 3 years. Among the major metropolitan counties, Pinellas has the highest mean age of 24 years for condominium units. The number of condominium sales in the state totaled 140,975 units in 2002. Of these over 26 percent occurred in Miami-Dade County, 19 percent in P alm Beach County, and approximately 15 percent in Broward County. These three southeast counties accounted for about 60 percent of all condominium transactions in the state. F igure 3.7 shows the median sales prices for condominiums vary widely across counties. The median price of condominium units sold in the state in 2002 was $124,500. Counties with median prices above $200,000 were the $280,000 in Nassau County, $279,000 in Santa Rosa, $235,000 in Walton, $230,000 in Monroe, and $210,000 in O kaloosa. Except for Nassau, these are coastal counties located in smaller MSAs or in nonmetropolitan areas. The r elatively high price of portions of the condominium stock in Florida appears to reflect the steep premium paid for the ocean accessibility that is an attribute of many condominiums in coastal settings and the retirement or second home clientele for the units. Condominium units in the larger counties have lower median sales prices, including $85,500 in Broward, $83,250 in Hillsborough, $133,300 in Miami-Dade, and $75,000 in Orange County. While these counties have high priced units, the medians indicate a broader market for condominium units.

PAGE 44

38The State of Floridas Housing, 2004 Florida1,340,915100.00%48.60%$165,713.1100.00%$182,012.8 Fort Lauderdale, FL MSABroward County211,46215.77%56.16%$17,388.010.49%$20,165.6 Jacksonville, FL MSAClay County1,1170.08%61.24%$82.30.05%$90.3 Duval County9,1130.68%55.43%$945.40.57%$1,110.3 Nassau County2,8110.21%18.39%$815.60.49%$858.2 St. Johns County9,0220.67%29.99%$1,569.30.95%$1,689.5 MSA Total22,0631.65%40.60%$3,412.62.06%$3,748.3 Miami, FL MSAMiami-Dade County289,22221.57%53.26%$35,031.221.14%$38,500.8 Orlando, FL MSALake County2,7130.20%55.84%$253.50.15%$262.6 Orange County33,9232.53%30.78%$4,568.12.76%$4,709.2 Osceola County3,6460.27%11.71%$1,696.21.02%$1,697.8 Seminole County8,3270.62%60.48%$498.20.30%$554.8 MSA Total48,6093.63%35.83%$7,016.04.23%$7,224.5 T ampaSt. Petersburg Clearwater, FL MSAHernando County7820.06%52.30%$36.10.02%$36.7 Hillsborough County22,4701.68%58.56%$1,645.90.99%$1,879.8 Pasco County10,9230.81%53.43%$568.60.34%$617.0 Pinellas County90,5076.75%53.10%$8,685.85.24%$9,835.8 MSA Total124,6829.30%54.11%$10,936.46.60%$12,369.3 W est Palm Beach Boca Raton, FL MSAPalm Beach County276,30420.61%57.06%$33,191.520.03%$36,894.0 Major Metropolitian Area Total972,34272.51%$106,975.664.55%$118,902.5 Daytona Beach, FL MSAFlagler County1,8170.14%34.12%$234.80.14%$246.5 V olusia County23,8291.78%31.47%$2,939.71.77%$3,161.6 MSA Total25,6461.91%31.66%$3,174.51.92%$3,408.1 Fort Myers Cape Coral, FL MSALee County55,3864.13%33.46%$8,886.75.36%$9,348.9 Fort PiercePort St. Lucie, FL MSAMartin County13,0030.97%49.00%$1,216.30.73%$1,352.8 St. Lucie County12,0220.90%37.51%$1,433.00.86%$1,582.6 MSA Total25,0251.87%43.48%$2,649.31.60%$2,935.4 Fort Walton Beach, FL MSAOkaloosa County9,9550.74%10.30%$1,909.31.15%$1,935.4 Gainesville, FL MSAAlachua County3,2700.24%47.09%$184.60.11%$198.8 LakelandWinter Haven, FL MSAPolk County6,6960.50%37.95%$307.70.19%$315.4 MelbourneTitusville Palm Bay, FL MSABrevard County25,8311.93%43.65%$2,295.71.39%$2,553.4 Naples, FL MSACollier County78,0425.82%29.93%$17,292.310.44%$18,483.0 Ocala, FL MSAMarion County5,8350.44%67.87%$317.50.19%$324.3T otalTotal Just % of% OwnerAssessed% of Value T otal Units StateOccupiedValue($mils)State ($mils)T able 3.2 Condominium Stock10 10(*) Less than 25 Observations, ($) Less than 2/3 of observations have valid year built entries (#) Less than 2/3 of observations have valid square footage entries

PAGE 45

39 100.00%($)($)140,975100.00%$124,500 11.08%($)($)20,79114.75%$85,500 0.05%17881570.11%$114,500 0.61%2301,0820.77%$113,500 0.47%1903280.23%$280,000 0.93%($)($)1,2140.86%$157,500 2.06%($)($)2,7811.97%$137,900 21.15%($)($)36,78626.09%$133,000 0.14%1932190.16%$68,000 2.59%($)($)2,9312.08%$75,000 0.93%131883940.28%$107,200 0.30%221229680.69%$81,600 3.97%($)($)4,5123.20%$79,000 0.02%152730.05%$72,500 1.03%181192,5021.77%$83,250 0.34%21951,0160.72%$60,100 5.40%244988,3175.90%$83,000 6.80%2371411,9088.45%$80,000 20.27%186,43226,75018.97%$142,995 65.33%7,146103,52873.44% 0.14%161222760.20%$132,750 1.74%($)($)4380.31%$124,900 1.87%($)($)7140.51%$128,900 5.14%154,0587,3325.20%$145,900 0.74%2301,1840.84%$82,950 0.87%251281,1400.81%$125,000 1.61%241282,3241.65%$91,000 1.06%($)($)1,2400.88%$210,000 0.11%17234300.31%$78,300 0.17%($)($)5060.36%$56,500 1.40%205462,7921.98%$98,000 10.15%143,1277,8375.56%$171,000 0.18%17154410.31%$59,500New UnitsNumber ofMedian % ofAverageConstructedSales% of 2002 StateAge in 2002in 2002State Sales Price

PAGE 46

40The State of Floridas Housing, 2004 T otalTotal Just % of% OwnerAssessed% of Value T otal Units StateOccupiedValue($mils)State ($mils)T able 3.2 Condominium Stock (continued)Panama City, FL MSABay County11,0860.83%9.19%$1,371.90.83%$1,393.5 Pensacola, FL MSAEscambia County4,5470.34%24.10%$607.10.37%$622.6 Santa Rosa County1,4380.11%19.68%$268.80.16%$271.7 MSA Total5,9850.45%23.04%$876.00.53%$894.2 Punta Gorda, FL MSACharlotte County11,6130.87%32.48%$1,483.00.89%$1,576.4 Sarasota Bradenton, FL MSAManatee County23,9381.79%50.30%$2,757.81.66%$3,048.5 Sarasota County45,1783.37%41.89%$9,249.25.58%$10,422.1 MSA Total69,1165.15%44.80%$12,006.97.25%$13,470.6 T allahassee, FL MSALeon County7470.06%24.36%$33.80.02%$34.8 Ve ro Beach, FL MSAIndian River County12,0700.90%42.47%$1,909.61.15%$2,073.1 Remaining Metropolitian Area Total346,30325.83%$54,698.833.01%$58,945.4 Northwest Nonmetropolitan AreaFranklin County370.00%10.81%$5.20.00%$5.2 Gulf County690.01%4.35%$9.30.01%$9.4 W akulla County1010.01%15.84%$10.60.01%$10.6 W alton County9,0400.67%7.18%$1,877.91.13%$1,895.3 Nonmetro Total9,2470.69%7.27%$1,902.91.15%$1,920.5 Northeast Nonmetropolitan AreaBradford County180.00%88.89%(*)(*)(*) Columbia County460.00%71.74%$2.90.00%$3.1 Levy County2170.02%3.23%$21.00.01%$21.2 T aylor County330.00%3.03%$3.60.00%$3.6 Nonmetro Total3140.02%18.15%$28.50.02%$29.0 Central Nonmetropolitan AreaCitrus County1,4710.11%43.58%$83.10.05%$88.5 Putnam County1410.01%34.75%$9.70.01%$9.8 Sumter County1050.01%43.81%$3.80.00%$3.8 Nonmetro Total1,7170.13%42.87%$96.60.06%$102.1 South Nonmetropolitan AreaDeSoto County5910.04%43.15%$38.90.02%$40.0 Glades County1750.01%20.00%$5.10.00%$5.2 Hardee County2170.02%35.48%$7.90.00%$7.9 Hendry County1580.01%22.78%$9.00.01%$9.4 Highlands County1,1580.09%42.14%$52.40.03%$52.8 Monroe County8,5350.64%15.70%$1,890.81.14%$1,991.1 Okeechobee County1580.01%22.78%$6.70.00%$6.9 Nonmetro Total10,9920.82%20.62%$2,010.71.21%$2,113.3 Nonmetropolitian Area Total22,2701.66%$4,038.72.44%$4,164.9

PAGE 47

41 New UnitsNumber ofMedian % ofAverageConstructedSales% of 2002 StateAge in 2002in 2002State Sales Price0.77%($)($)1,2480.89%$134,000 0.34%18405380.38%$135,000 0.15%1302810.20%$279,900 0.49%17408190.58%$203,000 0.87%171571,2870.91%$88,000 1.67%213142,2451.59%$118,600 5.73%214144,0352.86%$150,000 7.40%217286,2804.45%$136,500 0.02%2801120.08%$51,800 0.00% 1.14%191621,1940.85%$99,950 32.39%8,98434,55624.51% 0.00%30120.01%(*) 0.01%15060.00%(*) 0.01%($)($)120.01%(*) 1.04%($)($)1,5161.08%$235,000 1.06%($)($)1,5461.10%$234,386 (*)(*)(*)00.00%NA 0.00%23040.00%(*) 0.01%1018330.02%$155,000 0.00%($)($)00.00%NA 0.02%1318370.03%$155,000 0.05%2061290.09%$72,000 0.01%190180.01%(*) 0.00%($)($)120.01%(*) 0.06%2061590.11%$72,000 0.02%($)($)780.06%$83,000 0.00%($)($)100.01%(*) 0.00%710100.01%(*) 0.01%15080.01%(*) 0.03%21101390.10%$56,000 1.09%($)($)8770.62%$230,000 0.00%250270.02%$43,900 1.16%($)($)1,1490.82%$180,000 2.29%242,2982.05%

PAGE 48

42The State of FloridasHousing 2004 3.5 Multi-family HousingThe county property appraiser data used in this report do not allow an accounting for the number of units in multifamily rental structures, as only information on the parcels is reported. It is this information that is summarized below. We divide the multifamily stock, consistent with the appraiser data, into two categories: complexes with less than 10 units and complexes with 10 or more units. T able 3.3 contains summary information on the states stock of multifamily properties containing fewer than 10 units. There are about 156,000 multifamily properties that contain fewer than 10 units in the state of Florida. A pproximately 68 percent of these are found in the six major metropolitan areas, with another almost 28 percent located in other metropolitan areas. O nly 3.5 percent of these small multifamily complexes are found in nonMSA counties. Almost 21 percent of the units in this category are found in MiamiD ade County. Only nine of the 31 nonMSA counties have more than 100 such complexes, with Monroe having over 47 percent of the non-MSA total. Other non-MSA counties with more than 100 properties were Columbia, Citrus, P utnam, DeSoto, Hardee, Hendry, H ighlands and Okeechobee Counties. These numbers again point to the differences that are observed between the urban, coastal counties and the rural, interior counties of Florida. As with condominium units, which are also likely found in multifamily structures, it is apparent that urban and coastal counties are the predominant settings for such structures while the rural and interior counties are characterized by a largely single-family housing stock. The mean age of multifamily complexes containing 9 or fewer units is 23 years for the state. Counties with the oldest average ages (and at least 100 properties) include Duval (46), MiamiDade (41), Monroe (42), and Pinellas (50). T able 3.4 contains information on larger multifamily complexes, those with 10 or more units. There are many fewer of these large multifamily complexes, 14,218 compared to 156,000 smaller properties (less than 10 units). U ndoubtedly however, these larger complexes comprise many more units than the smaller complexes. A bout 27 percent of these larger complexes are located in Miami-Dade County, with 13 percent in Broward County and 12.2 percent in the Tampa B ay MSA. The six major MSAs contain approximately 71 percent of all complexes of this type. The other MSAs contain almost 25.4 percent of the state total, with Volusia, Alachua, Leon, and S arasota Counties having more than 300 complexes. The Alachua and Leon numbers reflect the concentration of college students in those communities. N on-MSA counties contain only 3.4 percent of the states stock of larger apartment complexes. The average age of these larger complexes is 29 years. Miami-Dade (37 y ears), Pinellas (37 years), and Volusia (39 years) Counties have relatively old stocks of larger complexes. At 20 years, the Orlando MSA has the youngest stock of such complexes among the six major MSAs.3.6 SummaryThe county property appraiser data provides a wealth of data on characteristics of the housing stock across the state. The county-by-county and MSA summaries clearly show differences in the importance of single-family properties, condominiums, and multifamily properties. Also apparent are differences across the state in the age and size of units. Finally, there are significant differences in the numbers of transactions each year and in the median values of properties. The differences show that the state might be characterized as two states when thinking about the housing market, with the large urban and coastal counties at one extreme and the small, r ural inland counties at the other.

PAGE 49

43 T otal Units T able 3.3 Multi-Family Housing Stock with 9 or Less Units11Florida155,655100.00%$20,816.1100.00%$22,250.8100.00%231.00 Fort Lauderdale, FL MSABroward County19,46212.50%$3,247.215.60%$3,509.815.77%371.59 Jacksonville, FL MSAClay County2760.18%$28.80.14%$28.80.13%($)($) Duval County4,3572.80%$490.92.36%$527.02.37%461.96 Nassau County3140.20%$56.60.27%$60.90.27%271.17 St. Johns County1,8451.19%$313.01.50%$377.71.70%241.02 MSA Total6,7924.36%$889.34.27%$994.44.47%391.65 Miami, FL MSAMiami-Dade County32,01020.56%$5,331.125.61%$5,668.625.48%411.77 Orlando, FL MSALake County1,2030.77%$110.30.53%$111.40.50%361.53 Orange County10,4006.68%$858.04.12%$897.94.04%241.04 Osceola County8380.54%$116.50.56%$118.00.53%291.22 Seminole County1,1400.73%$108.80.52%$111.60.50%291.23 MSA Total13,5818.73%$1,193.65.73%$1,238.95.57%261.11 T ampaSt. Petersburg Clearwater, FL MSAHernando County4170.27%$40.20.19%$40.60.18%170.74 Hillsborough County5,1583.31%$482.62.32%$494.02.22%281.18 Pasco County3,8782.49%$291.51.40%$321.81.45%301.30 Pinellas County13,4408.63%$1,837.48.83%$2,051.49.22%502.15 MSA Total22,89314.71%$2,651.612.74%$2,907.813.07%411.76 W est Palm Beach Boca Raton, FL MSAPalm Beach County11,2477.23%$1,504.37.23%$1,605.77.22%411.75 Major Metropolitian Area Total105,98568.09%$14,817.171.18%$15,925.171.57% Daytona Beach, FL MSAFlagler County4560.29%$59.60.29%$61.70.28%140.61 V olusia County9,0305.80%$722.53.47%$787.83.54%251.08 MSA Total9,4866.09%$782.13.76%$849.43.82%251.06 Fort Myers Cape Coral, FL MSALee County5,7853.72%$751.53.61%$798.43.59%251.05 Fort Pierce Port St. Lucie, FL MSAMartin County9100.58%$107.80.52%$111.90.50%271.16 St. Lucie County1,4760.95%$110.60.53%$111.60.50%361.53 MSA Total2,3861.53%$218.41.05%$223.51.00%331.39 Fort Walton Beach, FL MSAOkaloosa County7530.48%$91.50.44%$91.90.41%291.25 Gainesville, FL MSAAlachua County1,7181.10%$135.50.65%$137.50.62%291.25 Lakeland Winter Haven, FL MSAPolk County4,0702.61%$263.91.27%$264.61.19%311.33 MelbourneTitusville Palm Bay, FL MSABrevard County2,9701.91%$352.01.69%$377.01.69%391.65 Naples, FL MSACollier County1,9651.26%$341.81.64%$354.31.59%261.09 Ocala, FL MSAMarion County1,1030.71%$84.90.41%$85.50.38%251.08 Panama City, FL MSABay County8120.52%$86.70.42%$87.30.39%210.88 Pensacola, FL MSAEscambia County1,8581.19%$154.00.74%$161.50.73%331.39 Santa Rosa County5930.38%$52.80.25%$53.00.24%210.91 MSA Total2,4511.57%$206.80.99%$214.40.96%301.27% of State T otal Assessed V alue(Millions of Dollars)% of State T otal Just V alue (Millions of Dollars)% of State A verage Age Relative Age Index 11(*) Less than 25 Observations, ($) Less than 2/3 of observations have valid year built entries (#) Less than 2/3 of observations have valid square footage entries

PAGE 50

44The State of Floridas Housing, 2004 T otal Units T able 3.3 Multi-Family Housing Stock with 9 or Less Units (continued)% of State T otal Assessed V alue(Millions of Dollars)% of State T otal Just V alue (Millions of Dollars)% of State A verage Age Relative Age IndexPunta Gorda, FL MSACharlotte County1,0170.65%$152.10.73%$160.80.72%271.15 Sarasota Bradenton, FL MSAManatee County4,5142.90%$629.23.02%$678.73.05%361.54 Sarasota County2,2721.46%$355.31.71%$365.71.64%381.62 MSA Total6,7864.36%$984.54.73%$1,044.44.69%371.57 T allahassee, FL MSAGadsden County110.01%(*)(*)(*)(*)(*)(*) Leon County1,9921.28%$209.81.01%$211.50.95%301.26 MSA Total2,0031.29%$219.31.05%$221.00.99%291.26 Ve ro Beach, FL MSAIndian River County7790.50%$91.60.44%$93.30.42%291.25 Remaining Metropolitian Area Total44,08428.32%$4,762.722.88%$5,003.422.49% Northwest Nonmetropolitan AreaCalhoun County30.00%(*)(*)(*)(*)(*)(*) Franklin County160.01%(*)(*)(*)(*)(*)(*) Holmes County60.00%(*)(*)(*)(*)(*)(*) Jackson County660.04%$15.20.07%$15.20.07%200.86 Jefferson County120.01%(*)(*)(*)(*)(*)(*) Liberty County70.00%(*)(*)(*)(*)(*)(*) W akulla County190.01%(*)(*)(*)(*)(*)(*) W alton County490.03%$9.60.05%$10.00.04%150.65 W ashington County140.01%(*)(*)(*)(*)(*)(*) Nonmetro Total1920.12%$41.10.20%$41.60.19%200.86 Northeast Nonmetropolitan AreaBaker County260.02%$4.30.02%$4.30.02%251.05 Bradford County160.01%(*)(*)(*)(*)(*)(*) Columbia County2090.13%$22.20.11%$22.30.10%271.13 Dixie County10.00%(*)(*)(*)(*)(*)(*) Gilchrist County80.01%(*)(*)(*)(*)(*)(*) Hamilton County170.01%(*)(*)(*)(*)(*)(*) Lafayette County40.00%(*)(*)(*)(*)(*)(*) Levy County680.04%$6.30.03%$6.50.03%261.10 Madison County410.03%$4.40.02%$4.40.02%180.78 Suwannee County430.03%$3.10.02%$3.20.01%251.08 T aylor County80.01%(*)(*)(*)(*)(*)(*) Union County80.01%(*)(*)(*)(*)(*)(*) Nonmetro Total4490.29%$53.80.26%$54.10.24%261.12 Central Nonmetropolitan AreaCitrus County3780.24%$29.70.14%$30.10.14%230.99 Putnam County1360.09%$8.80.04%$9.40.04%341.46 Sumter County720.05%$5.10.02%$5.20.02%241.02 Nonmetro Total5860.38%$43.60.21%$44.80.20%261.11 0.00% South Nonmetropolitan AreaDeSoto County1730.11%$11.70.06%$11.80.05%291.24 Glades County350.02%$2.50.01%$2.50.01%271.14 Hardee County2260.15%$11.60.06%$11.70.05%381.62 Hendry County4120.26%$30.70.15%$31.90.14%301.29 Highlands County7070.45%$39.10.19%$39.20.18%331.43 Monroe County2,6801.72%$991.74.76%$1,074.14.83%421.79 Okeechobee County1260.08%$10.60.05%$10.70.05%301.27 Nonmetro Total4,3592.80%$1,097.85.27%$1,181.85.31%381.63 Nonmetropolitian Area Total5,5863.59%$1,236.355.94%$1,322.305.94%

PAGE 51

45 T able 3.4 Multi-Family Housing Stock with 10 or More Units12T otal Units % of State T otal Assessed V alue(Millions of Dollars)% of State T otal Just V alue (Millions of Dollars)% of State A verage Age Relative Age IndexFlorida14,218100.00%$37,314.2100.00%$37,326.4100.00%291.00 Fort Lauderdale, FL MSABroward County1,86313.10%$5,879.415.76%$5,885.115.77%311.06 Jacksonville, FL MSAClay County430.30%$205.40.55%$205.40.55%($)($) Duval County5533.89%$2,390.06.41%$2,390.16.40%260.87 Nassau County380.27%$42.70.11%$43.10.12%200.70 St. Johns County360.25%$194.80.52%$194.80.52%110.39 MSA Total6704.71%$2,832.97.59%$2,833.47.59%250.83 Miami, FL MSAMiami-Dade County3,86227.16%$7,393.319.81%$7,397.019.82%371.27 Orlando, FL MSALake County1160.82%$166.50.45%$166.50.45%210.71 Orange County7445.23%$3,895.610.44%$3,895.710.44%210.73 Osceola County790.56%$452.91.21%$452.91.21%170.58 Seminole County2451.72%$1,323.93.55%$1,323.93.55%180.61 MSA Total1,1848.33%$5,838.815.65%$5,838.915.64%200.69 T ampaSt. Petersburg Clearwater, FL MSAHernando County490.34%$45.00.12%$45.00.12%140.49 Hillsborough County7665.39%$3,452.39.25%$3,452.39.25%230.78 Pasco County1320.93%$199.70.54%$199.70.54%220.73 Pinellas County7885.54%$2,003.65.37%$2,004.15.37%371.25 MSA Total1,73512.20%$5,700.615.28%$5,701.115.27%290.98 W est Palm BeachBoca Raton, FL MSAPalm Beach County8005.63%$3,189.68.55%$3,189.78.55%290.98 Major Metropolitian Area Total10,11471.14%$30,834.682.64%$30,845.282.64% Daytona Beach, FL MSAFlagler County70.05%(*)(*)(*)(*)(*)(*) V olusia County4893.44%$453.61.22%$453.91.22%391.32 MSA Total4963.49%$462.01.24%$462.21.24%391.31 Fort Myers Cape Coral, FL MSALee County1761.24%$583.61.56%$583.61.56%200.67 Fort Pierce Port St. Lucie, FL MSAMartin County610.43%$137.80.37%$138.10.37%260.87 St. Lucie County680.48%$124.00.33%$124.00.33%250.84 MSA Total1290.91%$261.80.70%$262.10.70%250.85 Fort Walton Beach, FL MSAOkaloosa County1491.05%$143.70.39%$144.00.39%220.75 Gainesville, FL MSAAlachua County3792.67%$742.11.99%$742.11.99%220.75 Lakeland Winter Haven, FL MSAPolk County2431.71%$321.40.86%$321.50.86%270.90 MelbourneTitusville Palm Bay, FL MSABrevard County2751.93%$585.81.57%$586.11.57%290.98 Naples, FL MSACollier County1030.72%$668.11.79%$668.11.79%150.50 Ocala, FL MSAMarion County930.65%$133.20.36%$133.30.36%230.79 Panama City, FL MSABay County1290.91%$145.70.39%$145.80.39%220.73 Pensacola, FL MSAEscambia County1320.93%$271.50.73%$271.50.73%230.79 Santa Rosa County490.34%$53.00.14%$53.00.14%190.66 MSA Total1811.27%$324.50.87%$324.50.87%220.75 12(*) Less than 25 Observations, ($) Less than 2/3 of observations have valid year built entries (#) Less than 2/3 of observations have valid square footage entries

PAGE 52

46The State of Floridas Housing, 2004 T able 3.4 Multi-Family Housing Stock with 10 or More Units (continued)T otal Units % of State T otal Assessed V alue(Millions of Dollars)% of State T otal Just V alue (Millions of Dollars)% of State A verage Age Relative Age IndexPunta Gorda, FL MSACharlotte County260.18%$54.00.14%$54.00.14%250.84 Sarasota Bradenton, FL MSAManatee County2521.77%$462.01.24%$462.01.24%120.41 Sarasota County5433.82%$540.21.45%$540.31.45%260.88 MSA Total7955.59%$1,002.22.69%$1,002.42.69%220.73 T allahassee, FL MSAGadsden County490.34%$4.20.01%$4.20.01%270.91 Leon County3532.48%$684.91.84%$685.01.84%250.87 MSA Total4022.83%$689.11.85%$689.21.85%260.87 Ve ro Beach, FL MSAIndian River County420.30%$100.90.27%$100.90.27%170.58 Remaining Metropolitian Area Total3,61825.45%$6,218.016.66%$6,219.516.66% Northwest Nonmetropolitan AreaCalhoun County40.03%(*)(*)(*)(*)(*)(*) Franklin County260.18%$4.30.01%$4.30.01%230.79 Gulf County80.06%(*)(*)(*)(*)(*)(*) Holmes County60.04%(*)(*)(*)(*)(*)(*) Jackson County150.11%(*)(*)(*)(*)(*)(*) Jefferson County70.05%(*)(*)(*)(*)(*)(*) W akulla County20.01%(*)(*)(*)(*)(*)(*) W alton County790.56%$22.10.06%$22.10.06%100.35 W ashington County20.01%(*)(*)(*)(*)(*)(*) Nonmetro Total1491.05%$42.40.11%$42.50.11%160.54 Northeast Nonmetropolitan AreaBaker County10.01%(*)(*)(*)(*)(*)(*) Bradford County160.11%(*)(*)(*)(*)(*)(*) Columbia County240.17%(*)(*)(*)(*)(*)(*) Dixie County40.03%(*)(*)(*)(*)(*)(*) Gilchrist County10.01%(*)(*)(*)(*)(*)(*) Lafayette County10.01%(*)(*)(*)(*)(*)(*) Levy County110.08%(*)(*)(*)(*)(*)(*) Madison County80.06%(*)(*)(*)(*)(*)(*) Suwannee County150.11%(*)(*)(*)(*)(*)(*) T aylor County10.01%(*)(*)(*)(*)(*)(*) Union County50.04%(*)(*)(*)(*)(*)(*) Nonmetro Total870.61%$61.00.16%$61.10.16%230.80 Central Nonmetropolitan AreaCitrus County480.34%$22.10.06%$22.10.06%170.58 Putnam County290.20%$28.10.08%$28.10.08%190.65 Sumter County430.30%$7.90.02%$7.90.02%270.93 Nonmetro Total1200.84%$58.10.16%$58.10.16%210.72 South Nonmetropolitan AreaDeSoto County330.23%$14.50.04%$14.50.04%210.73 Glades County40.03%(*)(*)(*)(*)(*)(*) Hardee County80.06%(*)(*)(*)(*)(*)(*) Hendry County140.10%(*)(*)(*)(*)(*)(*) Highlands County570.40%$25.40.07%$25.40.07%230.80 Monroe County120.08%(*)(*)(*)(*)(*)(*) Okeechobee County20.01%(*)(*)(*)(*)(*)(*) Nonmetro Total1300.91%$100.10.27%$100.10.27%240.82 Nonmetropolitian Area Total4863.42%$261.60.70%$261.80.70%

PAGE 53

47 4. Housing AffordabilityD ouglas White, Florida Housing Data Clearinghouse, Shimberg Center, U niversity of Florida Ma rc T. Smith, Ph.D., Shimberg Center, University of Florida4.1 IntroductionThe affordability of housing is an important issue nationally and in the state of Florida. Households are concerned about it because affordability affects their ability to become a homeowner, as well as the size and amenities of the home they are able to purchase. Real estate salespersons and other industry participants also are concerned, because the number of households able to afford the purchase of a home is an important determinant of single-family sales activity in their local markets. Housing affordability also has become an important public policy issue, as home ownership is viewed as being an important goal for both individual and societal reasons. Three factors are the primary determinants of the affordability of housing. These are household income, housing prices, and mortgage rates. For a household considering homeownership, an additional factor is the rate of appreciation in housing prices. This chapter begins with a discussion of affordability using a homeownership cost index measure.4.2 Housing Affordability IndexOne measure of housing affordability is the cost of homeownership, commonly conveyed through housing affordability indices. These indices generally indicate that affordability increased substantially toward the end of the last decade, primarily as a result of lower interest rates during that period, but has lessened through the beginning of the current decade as a result of rising housing prices. A housing affordability index for an area brings together the price and the income elements that contribute to housing affordability. The most common index construction method is that used by the N ational Association of R ealtors (NAR). The NAR index measures the ability of the median income household in an area to afford a median priced house. In addition to the median income and median house price in an area, index construction requires the current mortgage interest rate, assumptions about the down payment r equired to purchase the median price home, and the maximum percentage of household income that can be spent on housing. An index of 100 indicates the typical (median) family in the area has sufficient income to purchase a singlefamily home selling at the median price.1M edian house prices are calculated from the DOR county property appraiser datasets. Median household incomes are purchased from Claritas. Although important, median sale prices in a county or MSA do not alone determine housing affordability. A second important factor is the income of area residents. The highest household incomes in Florida are generally in the coastal counties that also contain many high priced housing units. However, median household incomes and singlefamily house prices in an area are only moderately correlated which can lead to significant differences in housing affordability across counties and MSAs. 1Affordability indices are calculated by NAR only for the nine largest metropolitan areas in Florida. Moreover, most of these MSAs are recent additions to the report, and thus provide little historical information on how housing affordability has changed over time and across counties. In addition, the affordability indices published by NAR are based only on homes that have sold through the use of a Multiple Listing Service. Thus, the home sales used to calculate the median sale price may not be representative of all housing stock in the area. 47

PAGE 54

48The State of FloridasHousing 2004 Our index construction method can be represented by the following formula: Qualifying income is defined as the income needed to qualify for a mortgage to finance an existing median-priced home. As an example, the median household income in Alachua County in 2002 was $34,900, the median 2002 sales price of a single-family home was $126,000, and the 30-year mortgage interest rate of 6.54 percent2 yields a mortgage constant of 0.006345. The calculated affordability index is 95.73: The denominator is the annual mortgage payment, multiplied by 4, because the income needed to qualify for a 5 percent down, 6.54-percent, monthly payment loan is assumed to be four times the annual mortgage payment. This is equivalent to a household spending 25 percent of their monthly income on mortgage costs, and is consistent with the qualifying ratio used by residential mortgage lenders. The calculated index of 95.73 indicates that median household income in the area is 4.27% below the amount typically needed to qualify for the loan. The higher the calculated affordability index, the easier it is for a household in the area with median income to purchase a median-priced home, and the lower the affordability index, the harder it is for a household with the median income to purchase a median priced home.3We calculate affordability indices (T able 4-1) for all counties in Florida and for the years for which we have sufficient data (at least 25 sales each year, as the sales provide the basis for the calculation of a median sales price of a home). Our index calculations differ from those of the NAR because we use the property appraiser data as the source for home sales transaction prices rather than the M ultiple Listing Service used by the R ealtors, and our median income is household rather than family income. Our numbers are therefore not directly comparable, but do give an indication of relative affordability across the state. D ue to the manner in which Claritas calculates the median household income, the county-specific indices cannot be directly compared year to year, but the ov erall trends in the counties can be discussed. As can be seen in Table 4.1 the number of counties with an index value below 100 totaled eighteen in 1995 and declined to thirteen in 1998. Ho we ver, after 1998 the number of counties with an index value below 100 started to rise, and twenty-three counties fell in this category in 2002. As would be expected, the number of counties with a value above 150 fell from seventeen in 1995 to 12 in 2002. These numbers point to a lessening of housing affordability in Florida in 2002. The things that drive affordability are the cost of a home and income. The cost is driven by two factors, interest rates and sales price. While interest rates in 2002 continued to be at historic lows, and did decrease between 2001 and 2002 from 6.97% to 6.54%, the median sales price of homes across Florida continued to rise. 2The annual interest rates are an average of the monthly 30-year mortgage rate found in the FREDII economic database from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, and can be obtained from the following URL: http:// r esearch.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MORTG/.The mortgage constant is calculated using this interest rate.3After several comments about last years Affordability Index, we have changed our down payment assumption to 5 percent instead of the 20 percent used in the past. It is believed that this change better reflects what is occurring in F loridas housing market. Please note, that this effectively increases the required qualifying income, and will lower housing affordability as compared to last years report.Affordability Index = M edian Family Income Q ualifying Income x 100 = = 95.73% $34,900 4 x 12(0.95 x $126,000) x 0.006345 $34,900 $36,458

PAGE 55

49 The increase in sales price offset and over took any benefit from the decrease in interest rates (see Chapter 5 for a more detailed discussion of home prices in F lorida). While housing prices were rising, income in Florida remained r elatively constant. According to data available from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, per capita income in Florida grew by only $500 between 2001 and 2002. This slow growth in income and fast growth in housing prices is making housing less affordable in Florida. In interpreting the affordability indices for each county, several caveats should be considered. First, as a result of the limited sales transactions in some smaller counties, the median sale price may vary considerably from year to year. This fluctuation in the estimated median house price produces an exaggerated v ariability in the calculated affordability index. Second, the calculation of the index using median house prices and incomes may mask the distribution of affordability across the various income brackets within a county or MSA. For example, if house prices in a county tend to be tightly distributed around their median value, while incomes are more widely dispersed, then affordability problems will exist at the lower income ranges that are not identified by the affordability index. Thus, standard indices based on median house prices and median incomes are only one measure of housing affordability. What the affordability indices provide is an indication of the relative change in affordability within counties over time, and the relative affordability of housing across counties.

PAGE 56

50The State of Floridas Housing, 2004 County19951996199719981999200020012002Major Metro Areas Fort Lauderdale, FL MSABrowardNANANANA87.26NA78.6982.66 Jacksonville, FL MSAClay116.53124.62127.95133.93122.58116.30127.72119.04 DuvalNANA118.83126.99122.94114.12119.82118.52 Nassau107.32100.4695.9899.6790.9787.8589.9584.59 Saint Johns112.23124.41121.46133.74126.39125.25143.83148.02 Miami, FL MSAMiami-Dade70.7277.3976.3281.6778.9068.2274.9578.21 Orlando, FL MSALake89.9288.2789.3788.5680.3774.9582.6281.01 Orange104.65107.06109.65114.14110.21100.85109.76107.26 Osceola99.13104.39103.06100.1392.0482.9391.8892.67 Seminole168.96189.92187.83200.90197.26186.83202.99180.03 T ampaSt. Petersburg Clearwater, FL MSAHernando112.99111.40120.79122.93117.35109.79124.16119.66 Hillsborough100.74106.03108.05115.49111.87102.86119.36115.88 Pasco104.08109.20115.45120.76111.75105.67103.64103.28 Pinellas95.64102.96110.99116.73110.06101.46110.13108.58 W est Palm Beach Boca Raton, FL MSAPalm Beach88.2397.5597.35113.81108.3594.5195.2191.01 Remaining Metro Areas Daytona Beach, FL MSAFlagler81.2599.48113.38115.92101.8391.98115.90111.48 V olusia99.72101.33106.74112.88104.1299.5197.1091.84 Fort Myers Cape Coral, FL MSALee93.4695.9793.89104.0497.0488.7897.0395.65 Fort Pierce Port St. Lucie, FL MSAMartin86.0088.2487.4595.8491.2782.2494.5384.77 Saint Lucie89.9290.9190.8291.2584.7077.2886.0581.60 Fort Walton Beach, FL MSAOkaloosa112.41118.77118.46121.12119.85114.76134.17117.37 Gainesville, FL MSAAlachua91.8494.4694.0196.6391.8187.79101.3595.73 LakelandWinter Haven, FL MSAPolk108.00110.53116.86126.72116.76107.87119.47117.68 MelbourneTitusville Palm Bay, FL MSABrevard119.87120.84121.59120.82117.10110.55118.92119.10 Naples, FL MSACollier69.9280.0980.1581.7078.0064.8186.0779.25 Ocala, FL MSAMarion104.76105.75108.43113.15111.13106.25113.3994.81 Panama City, FL MSABay110.76117.07115.55117.52113.67106.23112.81107.18 Pensacola, FL MSAEscambia131.85124.22116.35121.93114.99113.13122.38116.73 Santa Rosa90.5395.3096.0296.6091.7886.5193.8393.57 Punta Gorda, FL MSACharlotte101.25109.53110.76112.89111.7989.53107.1593.21 SarasotaBradenton, FL MSAManatee92.0594.4495.02100.4492.4985.0396.2085.00 Sarasota71.8074.2576.2083.3076.6272.2076.9274.60 T allahassee, FL MSAGadsden106.74113.72101.34108.88112.25119.35121.00118.72 Leon103.65109.01117.35117.03118.38115.05127.56119.51 Ve ro Beach, FL MSAIndian River123.08123.06129.92145.60135.28112.70124.90120.26 T able 4.1 County Affordability Index

PAGE 57

51 Nonmetro Areas Northwest Nonmetropolitan AreaCalhoun136.18131.20148.81166.71132.09132.53154.79189.95 Franklin92.4767.9890.0884.6363.4247.9654.3652.52 Gulf150.07159.08140.67121.5678.1367.1968.3858.69 Holmes150.02140.08155.74157.04133.85129.06158.65156.94 Jackson131.05131.53124.74132.00127.49111.80125.01134.99 Jefferson169.54141.13127.28160.72123.79153.51133.75139.23 LibertyNANANANA232.43NANANA W akulla111.77103.96107.12111.53109.8799.36115.72105.04 W alton81.4275.3671.7371.6363.5758.5666.9851.59 W ashington152.27118.66136.15143.81143.22120.15148.98156.07 Northeast Nonmetropolitan AreaBaker143.45147.87137.28143.22135.04141.26152.06134.03 Bradford150.54144.05154.36155.61140.25164.54180.62170.64 Columbia120.42124.21120.57125.81110.13117.87134.95122.87 DixieNA122.21NA107.00102.9974.89108.0086.39 Gilchrist137.86120.2399.91119.09106.03102.25117.95115.54 Hamilton155.97NA132.96116.75118.31104.35128.52124.90 LafayetteNANANANA140.60NA172.31NA Levy111.27113.74110.50137.01111.41103.14130.63116.86 Madison182.97138.92141.52142.34134.56141.53157.01155.49 Suwannee125.97121.36115.28126.11115.38113.58118.11115.23 T aylor152.07146.50162.94156.55136.57119.22136.51137.53 UnionNANANANANANA148.63NA Central Nonmetropolitan AreaCitrus112.86117.74125.85118.34109.36107.35121.33112.00 Putnam131.23133.22143.86143.32125.01117.40138.95139.94 Sumter150.6581.30142.9178.4467.8062.0467.7561.60 South Nonmetropolitan AreaDeSoto142.17131.88143.08124.35116.30117.59137.96153.99 Glades111.79152.81139.75121.85100.27110.24138.37129.65 Hardee171.26169.10171.75167.28142.54132.65167.30195.06 Hendry128.33126.74142.63160.20132.90134.85170.87189.40 Highlands111.25113.89120.27133.72121.04122.51137.89145.45 Monroe49.1059.8754.8660.0557.6451.8356.1751.90 Okeechobee123.29130.95122.91129.43122.34122.90136.38130.73County19951996199719981999200020012002 T able 4.1 County Affordability Index (continued)

PAGE 58

52The State of FloridasHousing 2004 T able 4.2 ranks the affordability of each county. Twenty-three Florida counties had an affordability index below 100 in 2002. Six major metropolitan counties are included among these fourteen counties, Osceola (92.67), Palm B each (91.01), Nassau (84.59), Broward (82.66), Lake (81.01), and Miami-Dade (78.21). Eleven counties from the re maining metro countries also show up among these counties, Alachua (95.73), Lee (95.65), Marion (94.81), Santa Rosa (93.57), Charlotte (93.21), Volusia (91.84), Manatee (85.00), Saint Lucie (81.60), Martin (84.77), Collier (79.25), and Sarasota (74.60). The five least affordable counties in 2002 are Walton (51.59), Monroe (51.90), Franklin (52.52), Gulf (58.69), and Sumter (61.60). The fact that small, rural counties have the least affordable housing prices at first look may be rather surprising. However, most of these counties are located in Floridas P anhandle and on the coast. These counties contain a large number of seasonal and second/vacation homes, which often are located on or near the beach. This prime location greatly increases the value and sales price of these homes, and as can be seen in table 4.3, in these counties, the median just value of homes that are not owner-occupied have a higher value than owner-occupied homes. We feel that the sale of these nonow ner-occupied homes explains the low affordability of these Gulf counties. At the other extreme, the most affordable counties are generally rural counties in the interior of the state, mostly in the north part of the state. Ha r dee County is Floridas most affordable county in 2002 (index = 195.06). The other top 10 high affordability index counties in 2002 include Calhoun (189.95), Hendry (189.40), Seminole (180.03), Bradford (170.64), Holmes (156.94), Washington (156.07), Madison (155.49), DeSoto (153.99), and Saint Johns (148.02). These counties, with the exception of St. J ohns (coastal) and Seminole (part of the Orlando MSA), are inland, rural, and characterized by relatively low median house prices. The two exceptions, St. J ohns and Seminole, have the highest and third highest median household income in 2002, which drives their affordability. It should be emphasized that most of the counties with the highest affordability indices also had fewer than 300 transactions in 2002. The small number of transactions is not surprising in small counties, but may be indicative of the level of competition in the market and therefore the pressure on housing prices. O ne problem with examining the affordability of housing using this index is that it only captures what is happening at the median income level and hides affordability problems at the lower income levels. Table 4.4 examines how the qualifying income compares to an hourly wage (assuming 2000 hours worked a year), and how that hourly wage compares to the state median hourly wage for five different occupations. The 2002 state median hourly wages come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics4 and are as follows, firefighters $16.50, police and sheriffs patrol officers $19.96, elementary school teachers, except special education $19.68, nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants $9.24, and secretaries, except legal, medical, and executive $11.29. As can be seen in table 4.4, even in those counties with a high affordability ranking, important occupations such as firefighters or police officers may have trouble purchasing a home. 4The 2002 Occupational wage data is available from the Bureau of Labor Statistics at the following url: http:// www.bls.gov/oes/oes_dl.htm

PAGE 59

53 Hardee195.06Most Affordable Calhoun189.952 Hendry189.403 Seminole180.034 Bradford170.645 Holmes156.946 W ashington156.077 Madison155.498 DeSoto153.999 Saint Johns148.0210 Highlands145.4511 Putnam139.9412 Jefferson139.2313 T aylor137.5314 Jackson134.9915 Baker134.0316 Okeechobee130.7317 Glades129.6518 Hamilton124.9019 Columbia122.8720 Indian River120.2621 Hernando119.6622 Leon119.5123 Brevard119.1024 Clay119.0425 Gadsden118.7226 Duval118.5227 Polk117.6828 Okaloosa117.3729 Levy116.8630 Escambia116.7331 Hillsborough115.8832 Gilchrist115.5433 Suwannee115.2334 T able 4.2 County Affordability Index and RankCitrus112.0035 Flagler111.4836 Pinellas108.5837 Orange107.2638 Bay107.1839 W akulla105.0440 Pasco103.2841 Alachua95.7342 Lee95.6543 Marion94.8144 Santa Rosa93.5745 Charlotte93.2146 Osceola92.6747 V olusia91.8448 Palm Beach91.0149 Dixie86.3950 Manatee85.0051 Martin84.7752 Nassau84.5953 Broward82.6654 Saint Lucie81.6055 Lake81.0156 Collier79.2557 Miami-Dade78.2158 Sarasota74.6059 Sumter61.6060 Gulf58.6961 Franklin52.5262 Monroe51.9063 W alton51.59Least Affordable LafayetteNANA LibertyNANA UnionNANA 2002 Affordability2002 IndexRank 2002 Affordability2002 IndexRank

PAGE 60

54The State of Floridas Housing, 2004 W alton County$142,288$84,565$260,321$156,434-$118,034-$71,870 Franklin County$141,508$75,426$237,210$134,134-$95,702-$58,708 Gulf County$117,988$79,370$171,373$110,614-$53,385-$31,244 Collier County$351,454$201,056$427,695$224,391-$76,241-$23,336 Monroe County$372,450$274,841$415,430$292,458-$42,979-$17,617 Lee County$174,926$119,970$221,630$126,580-$46,703-$6,610 Dixie County$57,989$44,350$66,243$49,100-$8,254-$4,750 Osceola County$111,572$98,000$111,195$99,100$377-$1,100 Nassau County$164,732$126,897$179,445$125,795-$14,713$1,103 Flagler County$131,341$105,828$129,530$99,731$1,811$6,098 Holmes County$49,814$43,647$38,019$32,679$11,795$10,968 Hardee County$54,009$43,403$37,480$31,062$16,529$12,341 W ashington County$53,250$47,085$40,798$33,923$12,451$13,162 Highlands County$70,148$59,831$57,329$46,176$12,820$13,655 Lafayette County$57,150$53,579$46,420$39,829$10,729$13,750 Putnam County$75,194$57,180$61,352$41,786$13,842$15,394 Madison County$51,523$42,191$37,979$26,764$13,544$15,427 DeSoto County$73,114$57,916$51,920$42,155$21,194$15,761 Orange County$145,984$117,267$130,872$101,493$15,111$15,775 Bay County$98,850$82,592$88,020$65,870$10,831$16,722 Charlotte County$139,546$108,459$125,625$91,542$13,921$16,917 Manatee County$177,372$138,862$178,996$121,740-$1,624$17,122 Calhoun County$46,774$38,750$28,898$21,395$17,876$17,355 Liberty County$46,302$37,593$33,470$20,219$12,832$17,374 T aylor County$58,481$45,088$46,397$27,186$12,084$17,902 V olusia County$113,881$93,598$99,026$75,376$14,855$18,222 Miami-Dade County$201,616$145,140$203,759$126,911-$2,142$18,230 Sumter County$101,541$99,760$82,373$81,180$19,168$18,580 St. Lucie County$103,291$88,500$90,518$69,800$12,773$18,700 Santa Rosa County$117,116$94,359$95,374$75,498$21,742$18,861 Hernando County$98,190$87,154$80,815$67,745$17,374$19,409 Polk County$92,415$80,690$74,770$61,200$17,645$19,490 Lake County$111,916$101,553$96,379$81,923$15,537$19,630 Okeechobee County$81,751$68,359$59,390$48,621$22,361$19,739 Hendry County$77,365$60,590$54,995$40,610$22,370$19,980 Clay County$116,716$99,433$94,208$79,343$22,509$20,090 Sarasota County$208,751$134,700$199,727$114,600$9,025$20,100 Bradford County$69,470$56,395$51,841$36,216$17,629$20,179 Citrus County$92,824$76,400$78,481$56,200$14,343$20,200 T able 4.3 Just Value Comparison of Owner Occupied and Non-Owner Occupied Single-Family HomesOwner OccupiedNot Owner OccupiedDifference Between Owner Occupied and Non Owner Occupied Mean Just V alue Median Just Value Mean Just V alue Median Just Value Mean Just Value Difference Median Just Value Difference

PAGE 61

55 Hamilton County$54,213$46,793$34,821$26,547$19,392$20,246 Gadsden County$61,600$48,926$39,247$28,289$22,353$20,638 Gilchrist County$69,810$62,512$53,228$41,646$16,581$20,866 Levy County$80,175$67,424$63,793$46,430$16,382$20,994 Okaloosa County$115,142$89,441$105,449$67,841$9,694$21,601 Marion County$90,573$79,120$73,201$57,452$17,371$21,668 Palm Beach County$240,250$150,022$316,849$127,804-$76,599$22,219 Broward County$192,533$155,380$189,610$132,900$2,923$22,480 Escambia County$88,260$74,390$65,174$51,660$23,085$22,730 Suwannee County$71,598$63,551$52,595$40,779$19,003$22,772 Jackson County$61,830$50,157$37,653$27,328$24,177$22,830 Jefferson County$61,596$53,240$36,597$30,125$24,999$23,115 Brevard County$120,675$96,460$95,279$73,140$25,396$23,320 Glades County$72,465$64,001$49,246$40,410$23,219$23,591 Pinellas County$148,235$111,600$126,054$87,500$22,182$24,100 Columbia County$76,701$66,522$53,353$42,389$23,347$24,133 Indian River County$185,103$101,265$224,062$76,860-$38,959$24,405 Baker County$80,415$73,007$56,104$48,354$24,311$24,653 Pasco County$102,051$88,488$81,485$63,152$20,566$25,336 Seminole County$149,756$127,133$118,864$99,436$30,892$27,697 Hillsborough County$134,971$106,977$97,313$77,833$37,657$29,145 Union County$60,828$55,076$34,898$25,821$25,930$29,256 W akulla County$90,520$85,116$70,410$55,688$20,110$29,428 St. Johns County$225,211$160,930$204,203$130,290$21,007$30,640 Martin County$238,207$156,900$286,073$121,825-$47,866$35,075 Alachua County$115,534$99,300$74,922$63,600$40,612$35,700 Duval County$127,380$101,878$86,463$65,705$40,917$36,173 Leon County$125,886$109,163$83,025$67,704$42,861$41,459 Owner OccupiedNot Owner OccupiedDifference Between Owner Occupied and Non Owner Occupied Mean Just V alue Median Just Value Mean Just V alue Median Just Value Mean Just Value Difference Median Just Value Difference T able 4.3 Just Value Comparison of Owner Occupied and Non-Owner Occupied Single-Family Homes (continued)

PAGE 62

56The State of Floridas Housing, 2004 2002 Rank Most T able 4.4 Comparison of 2002 Median Hourly Wages to Qualifying Income5AffordableHardee$17,216$8.61YesYesYesYesYes 2C alhoun$16,102$8.05YesYesYesYesYes 3 Hendry$21,990$11.00YesYesYesNoYes 4 Seminole$32,407$16.20YesYesYesNoNo 5 Bradford$21,701$10.85YesYesYesNoYes 6 Holmes$15,191$7.60YesYesYesYesYes 7W ashington$17,361$8.68YesYesYesYesYes 8 Madison$16,782$8.39YesYesYesYesYes 9 DeSoto$23,133$11.57YesYesYesNoNo 10Saint Johns$36,226$18.11NoYesYesNoNo 11Highlands$20,833$10.42YesYesYesNoYes 12Putnam$21,701$10.85YesYesYesNoYes 13Jefferson$23,148$11.57YesYesYesNoNo 14Taylor$19,676$9.84YesYesYesNoYes 15Jackson$20,370$10.19YesYesYesNoYes 16Baker$26,794$13.40YesYesYesNoNo 17Okeechobee$23,871$11.94YesYesYesNoNo 18Glades$20,558$10.28YesYesYesNoYes 19Hamilton$16,927$8.46YesYesYesYesYes 20Columbia$25,115$12.56YesYesYesNoNo 21Indian River$37,037$18.52NoYesYesNoNo 22Hernando$26,620$13.31YesYesYesNoNo 23Leon$36,458$18.23NoYesYesNoNo 24Brevard$34,577$17.29NoYesYesNoNo 25Clay$39,453$19.73NoYesNoNoNo 26Gadsden$24,016$12.01YesYesYesNoNo 27Duval$36,892$18.45NoYesYesNoNo 28Polk$30,237$15.12YesYesYesNoNo 29Okaloosa$35,272$17.64NoYesYesNoNo 30Levy$23,148$11.57YesYesYesNoNo 31Escambia$30,194$15.10YesYesYesNoNo 32Hillsborough$40,219$20.11NoNoNoNoNo 33Gilchrist$26,041$13.02YesYesYesNoNo 34Suwannee$22,714$11.36YesYesYesNoNo 35Citrus$24,595$12.30YesYesYesNoNo 36Flagler$34,722$17.36NoYesYesNoNo 37Pinellas$37,905$18.95NoYesYesNoNo 2002 Qualifying Income Hourly W age Needed for Qualifying Income Fire fighters Police and sheriffs patrol officers Elementary school teachers, except special education Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants Secretaries, except legal, medical, and executive 5I s the median 2002 hourly Wage greater or equal to that required for qualifying income, yes or no?

PAGE 63

57 38Orange$44,270$22.14NoNoNoNoNo 39Bay$34,143$17.07NoYesYesNoNo 40Wakulla$38,628$19.31NoYesYesNoNo 41Pasco$35,850$17.93NoYesYesNoNo 42Alachua$36,458$18.23NoYesYesNoNo 43Lee$43,836$21.92NoNoNoNoNo 44Marion$33,275$16.64NoYesYesNoNo 45Santa Rosa$44,849$22.42NoNoNoNoNo 46Charlotte$35,011$17.51NoYesYesNoNo 47Osceola$37,615$18.81NoYesYesNoNo 48Volusia$38,245$19.12NoYesYesNoNo 49Palm Beach$57,002$28.50NoNoNoNoNo 50Dixie$22,945$11.47YesYesYesNoNo 51Manatee$49,189$24.59NoNoNoNoNo 52Martin$53,529$26.76NoNoNoNoNo 53Nassau$50,781$25.39NoNoNoNoNo 54Broward$53,529$26.76NoNoNoNoNo 55Saint Lucie$44,415$22.21NoNoNoNoNo 56Lake$38,194$19.10NoYesYesNoNo 57Collier$72,337$36.17NoNoNoNoNo 58Miami-Dade$50,636$25.32NoNoNoNoNo 59Sarasota$57,870$28.93NoNoNoNoNo 60Sumter$41,059$20.53NoNoNoNoNo 61Gulf$47,743$23.87NoNoNoNoNo 62Franklin$57,146$28.57NoNoNoNoNo 63Monroe$94,038$47.02NoNoNoNoNo Least AffordableWalton$62,210$31.10NoNoNoNoNo NALafayetteNANANoNoNoNoNo NALibertyNANANoNoNoNoNo NAUnionNANANoNoNoNoNo 2002 Rank T able 4.4 Comparison of 2002 Median Hourly Wages to Qualifying Income (continued)2002 Qualifying Income Hourly W age Needed for Qualifying Income Fire fighters Police and sheriffs patrol officers Elementary school teachers, except special education Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants Secretaries, except legal, medical, and executive

PAGE 64

58The State of FloridasHousing 2004 5. Florida House Price Trends: Market Comparisons And ForecastsD ean H. Gatzlaff, Ph.D., FSU Real Estate Center, The Florida State Univ ersity5.1 IntroductionThirty-year fixed mortgage rates continued to decline from an average of 6.54 percent in 2002 to 5.82 percent in 2003 (Federal Reserve Bulletin, 2004). This, coupled with a relatively stable state economy, continued to fuel rapid house price increases across the state of Florida in 2003. Estimates indicate that, on average, single-family house prices in F lorida increased by 9.04 percent in 2003, down slightly from 9.31 percent the year prior. In comparison, singlefamily house prices in the United States during this same period were reported by the Office of Federal Housing E nterprise Oversight (OFHEO, 2003) to have increased by 5.56 percent. In only Rhode Island (11.81%) and California (9.44%) did statewide house price appreciation exceed Floridas rate. I nterestingly, these rapid house price increases were achieved during a period of historically low general inflation (1.88%), resulting in a 2003 inflationadjusted appreciation rate for singlefamily homes in Florida of 7.16 percent. On average, house prices have increased almost 7.0 percent per year over and above the general rate of inflation over the last three years. This represents the largest inflation-adjusted rate increase during any three-year period recorded, including the high appreciation period of the 1970s. Estimates indicate that questions regarding the U.S. economy and the uncertainties associated with the war in Iraq have not slowed recent house price appreciation. Du ring the 2001 to 2003 period house price increases have exceeded general inflation in each of the states 201M etropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs). Pr eliminary estimates indicate that, on average, house prices in Florida have increased by 8.75 percent annually since 2001. When compared to the 1.94 percent average annual rate of general inflation over this same period, average r eal house price appreciation is found to be 6.81 percent. Although mortgage interest rates are expected to rise from their current levels causing appreciation rates to diminish during the latter half of this decade, continued population growth and supply limitations will likely moderate this effect. The persistence in the 2001 to 2003 price trends has r esulted in an upward revision to our previously reported Florida house price appreciation forecasts. On average, F lorida house prices are forecast to increase by about 6.0 percent per year during the 2004 to 2010 period, resulting in an average annual increase of 6.9 percent for the decade. The purpose of this report is to document single-family house price movements for the state of Florida.2 The 1Ve ro Beach MSA was designated as an MSA in 2004 and is not included in this section of the report.2To avoid the problems associated with inferring price appreciation from the changes in median sale prices, (e.g., median sale prices are reported by the National Association of Realtors) estimates of house price appreciation are constructed using a repeat-sale method. This method has been shown to produce reliable estimates of appreciation while holding constant any changes in house characteristics that have occurred over time. Implementation of the method requires actual transaction data from individual properties that have sold more than once; thus, the index is applicable to existing house prices. Note that each Florida county property appraiser retains the two most r ecent transaction prices, if sold twice, for each property in their county. Unfortunately, updating the index is complicated because the entire index is revised when new sale data are added each year, and older sale information for properties selling a third time are deleted. The most reliable index estimate occurs in the period spanned by the most representative sample of repeat sales. In updating the indices, the average holding period is assumed to be ten years and a final index level is reported for 1994. Index levels after 1994 will be subsequently revised as additional sale data become available.

PAGE 65

59 r eport is organized as follows. In the next section, Section 5.2, F lorida-wide singlefamily house price indices are reported for the 1971 to 2003 period (preliminary estimates for 2003) and compared with changes in the consumer price index (CPI-U), the broad stock market index (S&P500), and a long-term government bond index. In S ection 5.3, relative house price appreciation rates in Floridas 11 planning districts from 1981 to 2003 are compared and contrasted. In addition, house price movements in the larger urban areas are compared to the smaller, more rural, areas. A comparison of r elative house price appreciation among the 20 Florida MSAs is presented in S ection 5.4. Section 5.5 reports average annual house price movements from 1996 to 2002 for individual counties where sufficient data are available. County transaction data were aggregated where adequate data were not available to provide reasonably reliable results. Pr ojected house price appreciation rates are reported for the 2001 to 2010 period in Section 5.6. T able 5.1: Summary of Florida House Price Appreciation, Housing Returns, Inflation, and Selected Asset Classes (1971-2003)NominalReal HouseHouseNominalNominalNominal PriceGeneralPriceReturns toReturns toReturns toApprec.InflationApprec.HousingStocksBonds 1971-1980Annual Mean9.528.111.4114.5210.344.11 1981-1990Annual Mean3.014.51-1.508.0114.6314.51 1991-2000Annual Mean2.972.760.217.9718.3911.00 1971-2000Annual Mean5.175.130.0410.1714.459.87 1971-2000Std. Dev.5.123.273.54 n.a.16.4512.30 2001-2003Annual Mean8.751.946.8113.75-1.767.73 2003-prelim.Annual Mean9.041.887.1614.0428.701.45Note: 2003 values are preliminary. House price appreciation rates are derived from the Florida House Price Index (all countie s) for years 1981 to 2003, and from the Florida House Price Index (six largest MSAs) for years 1971 to 1980. General inflation is derived from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index (CPI-U). Returns to housing assume a five-percent long-run dividend to housing from implicit rent. Returns to stocks (S&P500) and bonds (Long-Term Government Bonds) are as reported by Ibbotson Associates (Stocks, Bonds, Bills and Inflation, 2004).5.2 Statewide Measures of Single-Family House Prices in FloridaThe annual movement in the overall price of single-family housing in Florida for the last 30 years is summarized in F igure 5.1 and Table 5.1. Figure 5.1 indicates annual house price appreciation in the state of Florida climbed as high as 17.5 percent in 1978 and experienced declines of nearly 1 percent in 1977 and 1991. During the 1970s, annual appreciation rates averaged 9.52 percent statewide. When contrasted with a general inflation rate of 8.11 percent, inflation-adjusted house prices increased, on average, 1.41 percent per year (0.0952 0.0811 = 0.0141).

PAGE 66

60The State of FloridasHousing 2004 H ouse prices in the 1980s were characterized by negative inflationadjusted house price changes. With the exception of 1986, house price appreciation was less than general inflation, averaging -1.50 percent for the period. Annual house price increases averaged only 3.01 percent during the 1981 to 1990 period. Estimates for the 1990s indicate that this characteristic continued through the first half of the 1990s, with a reversal of this trend occurring in the mid-1990s. House price increases generally matched general inflation during the 1994 to 1996 period. In contrast, annual house price appreciation is estimated to have consistently exceeded general inflation for the last seven years (since 1997). Pr eliminary estimates indicate that house prices have increased, on average, by 8.75 percent from 2001 to 2003. At the same time general inflation has increased at an annual rate of only 1.94 percent, yielding historically high inflation-adjusted annual appreciation estimates of 6.81 Figure 5.1: Florida Annual House Price Index and Appreciation (1971-2003)Note: 2003 values are preliminary. House price appreciation rates are derived from the Florida House Price Index (all counties) for years 1981 to 2003, and from the Florida House Price Index (six largest MSAs) for years 1971 to 1980. General inflation is derived from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index (CPI-U).percent during the period. Over the 30-year period nominal house price returns (price movement, plus implied rent) averaged approximately 10.17 percent per year. 3This rate compares favorably to average annual rates of 14.45 and 9.87 percent for stocks (S&P 500) and bonds (longterm government bonds), respectively. A wide deviation in relative returns between single-family housing, stocks, and bonds can be seen in the 10-year summaries of the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s. It is interesting to note the preliminary 2003 annual return is 14.04 percent for housing, compared to 28.70 and 1.45 percent for stocks and bonds, r espectively.5.3 District-Level Measures of Single-Family House Price Appreciation in FloridaA comparison of annual appreciation rates for housing located in large metropolitan areas designated as 3This rate includes an implied rent of 5 percent that is necessary to compute for homeownership. The implicit r ent, or dividend, received by households due to homeownership is generally assumed by urban and financial economists to be approximately 4 to 6 percent. Although the dividend for rental housing is generally in the range of 7 to 10 percent, occupants of owner-occupied housing generally consume more (larger) housing relative to the r ent the home would command in an open market. Thus, the implied dividend (net rent / market value) they r eceive for renting, implicitly from themselves, is less as a percent of the value of the asset than traditional rental housing.

PAGE 67

61 M etropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) by the U.S. Bureau of the Census versus housing located outside of MSA designated areas is charted in Figure 5.2. S ingle-family housing located in the nonMSA counties consistently experienced higher rates of appreciation from 1986 to 1998. More recently, from 1999 to 2002, house prices have increased at a greater rate in the MSA-designated counties than in the smaller areas. Pr eliminary estimates indicate this trend continues for the fifth year into 2003. F igure 5.3 charts the average annual house price appreciation for two decades (1981-90 and 1991-2000) and for the first three years of the 2000s (2001-2003) for each of the planning districts.4S tatewide annual house price appreciation averaged just over 3.0 percent both decades. However, it is clear from Figure 5.3 that in general South Fl orida (i.e., Districts 8, 9, 10, & 11) experienced higher rates of appreciation in the 1980s than North Florida (Districts 1, 2, & 3). This trend then re versed in the 1990s. Notably, average annual appreciation rates in the 2000s are dramatically higher than in either of the two previous decadesa trend that is forecasted later to moderate. In addition, house appreciation in the South F lorida districts in general again outpaced that in North Florida.Note: District 1 (Bay, Escambia, Holmes, Okaloosa, Santa Rosa, Walton, and Washington Cos.), District 2 (Calhoun, Franklin, Gadsden, Gulf, Jackson, Jefferson, Leon, Liberty, and Wakulla Cos.), District 3 (Alachua, Bradford, Columbia, Dixie, Gilchrist, Hamilton, Lafayette, Madison, Suwannee, Taylor, and Union Cos.), District 4 (Baker, Clay, [adeq. data not avail. for Duival], Nassau, Putnam, and St. Johns Cos.), District 5 (Citus, Levy, Marion, and Sumter Cos.), District 6 (Brevard, Flagler, Lake, Orange, Osceola, Seminole, and Volusia Cos.), District 7 (De Soto, Hardee, Highlands, Okeechobee, and Polk Cos.), District 8 (Hernando, Hillsborough, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas, and Sarasota Cos.), District 9 (Charlotte, Collier, Glades, Hendry, and Lee Cos.), District 10 (Indian River, Martin, Palm Beach, and St. Lucie Cos.), and District 11 (Broward, Dade, and Monroe Cos.) Figure 5.2: Florida Annual House Price Appreciation MSA Counties v. Non-MSA Figure 5.3: Average Annual House Price Appreciation Florida MSAs, Non-MSAs, and Districts (1981-2003)Note: 2003 values are preliminary. House price appreciation rates for All MSA and Non-MSA counties are derived from aggregate index of all 20 Florida MSAs and the aggregate index estimated for the counties not in any of the 20 Florida MSAs, respectively. 4 The counties included in each of the eleven planning districts are noted in Table 14.

PAGE 68

62The State of FloridasHousing 2004 T able 5.2: Average Annual Percentage Appreciation and Period Rankings by District for Selected Periods (1981) )District1981-851986-901991-951996-002001-03 Florida (All Districts)3.432.581.464.728.75 Florida (All MSAs)3.442.541.414.728.78 Florida (All Non-MSA counties)3.313.422.384.708.16 District 1: West Florida4.24 (3)0.22 (11)3.34 (1)4.73 (5)4.89 (10) District 2: Apalachee2.80 (7)1.91 (8)3.01 (2)4.34 (9)9.81 (3) District 3: North Central Florida1.89 (10)2.93 (4)2.80 (3)4.82 (4)6.88 (8) District 4: Northeast Florida6.14 (1)1.97 (7)2.19 (5)5.45 (1)8.00 (6) District 5: Withlacoochee2.88 (5)1.60 (10)0.95 (9)3.71 (11)6.21 (9) District 6: East Central Florida4.06 (4)2.19 (5)1.03 (8)4.44 (7)7.28 (7) District 7: Central Florida2.65 (8)1.62 (9)2.05 (6)3.72 (10)4.86 (11) District 8: Tampa Bay4.53 (2)2.05 (6)1.45 (7)5.27 (2)8.16 (5) District 9: Southwest Florida1.43 (11)4.41 (1)0.33 (11)4.35 (8)10.00 (2) District 10: Treasure Coast2.87 (6)3.33 (3)0.67 (10)4.59 (6)9.30 (4) District 11: South Florida2.21 (9)3.75 (2)2.53 (4)4.97 (3)12.01 (1)Note: Estimates for 2003 are preliminary. Shaded areas denote top quartile ranking. District 1 (Bay, Escambia, Holmes, Okaloo sa, Santa Rosa, Walton, and Washington Cos.), District 2 (Calhoun, Franklin, Gadsden, Gulf, Jackson, Jefferson, Leon, Liberty, and W akulla Cos.), District 3 (Alachua, Bradford, Columbia, Dixie, Gilchrist, Hamilton, Lafayette, Madison, Suwannee, Taylor, and Union Co s.), District 4 (Baker, Clay, [adeq. data not avail. for Duval], Nassau, Putnam, and St. Johns Cos.), District 5 (Citus, Levy, Mari on, and Sumter Cos.), District 6 (Brevard, Flagler, Lake, Orange, Osceola, Seminole, and Volusia Cos.), District 7 (De Soto, Hardee, Highlands, Okeechobee, and Polk Cos.), District 8 (Hernando, Hillsborough, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas, and Sarasota Cos.), District 9 (Cha rlotte, Collier, Glades, Hendry, and Lee Cos.), District 10 (Indian River, Martin, Palm Beach, and St. Lucie Cos.), and District 11 (B roward, Dade, and Monroe Cos.)T able 5.2 details the period trends in appreciation across the districts of the state. It is interesting to note that No r theast Florida, West Florida and the Ta mpa Bay area experienced high rates of house price appreciation, relative to the state in the early 1980s. The second half of the 1980s was marked by high rates of house price appreciation in South Florida. These are followed by high rates in West Florida, A palachee, and North Central districts from 1991-1995. House price indices are reported for each district in Table 5.3.5In the late 1990s, appreciation rates in the larger market districts of Northeast F lorida, Tampa Bay, and South Florida exceeded other districts. Preliminary estimates indicate that with the exception of District 2, house price appreciation is greatest in South Florida (e.g., Districts 8, 9, 10, and 11). 5N ote that sufficient transaction data were not available to report 2002 appreciation estimates at the district, MSA, and county level; however, preliminary statewide measures are estimated and reported.

PAGE 69

63 T able 5.3: Annual House Price Indices for Florida Districts (1980-2002)AllAllNonDist.Dist.Dist.Dist.Dist.Dist.Dist.Dist.Dist.Dist.Dist. FL MSA MSA 1234567891011 19801.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.000 19811.0721.0741.0471.0691.0740.9931.1411.0611.0661.0731.1001.0771.0841.066 19821.0981.0991.0841.1241.0921.0201.1921.1201.0871.0771.1291.0681.0971.091 19831.1291.1301.1071.1501.1271.0961.2301.0911.1381.1051.1761.0601.1261.101 19841.1601.1591.1661.1981.1491.1451.2981.1511.1871.1321.2191.0711.1381.107 19851.1831.1831.1761.2301.1461.0931.3431.1491.2191.1381.2461.0711.1501.114 19861.2051.2051.2061.2301.1491.1751.3611.1461.2421.1611.2891.1121.1801.153 19871.2451.2441.2701.2451.1551.2511.3991.2031.2691.1651.3221.1451.2051.205 19881.2821.2811.3121.2421.2021.1881.4561.1961.2971.1971.3421.1901.2801.258 19891.3211.3181.3651.2521.2241.2551.4881.2311.3381.2341.3691.2771.3261.307 19901.3431.3411.3911.2431.2591.2571.4791.2421.3591.2321.3791.3281.3531.339 19911.3341.3311.3871.2581.2981.2671.4831.2181.3491.2371.3591.3281.3351.341 19921.3321.3271.4161.2951.3251.2711.4991.1981.3461.2501.3671.3221.3181.339 19931.3571.3531.4461.3381.3231.3231.5531.2431.3691.2841.3941.3141.3321.398 19941.4101.4051.5061.4081.4121.3641.5871.2771.3941.3241.4461.3331.3681.470 19951.4391.4331.5651.4591.4631.4411.6381.2961.4241.3701.4801.3601.3931.516 19961.4841.4781.6021.5491.5371.4941.6991.3281.4481.3991.5201.3711.4251.563 19971.5241.5171.6571.6121.5751.5641.7731.3611.4891.4321.5651.4111.4611.598 19981.5981.5901.7451.6811.6421.6341.8741.3971.5611.5091.6541.4631.5301.665 19991.6811.6741.8291.7601.6981.7242.0001.4701.6391.5721.7571.5451.6201.748 20001.7961.7881.9431.8261.8021.8112.1061.5421.7621.6421.8991.6571.7371.891 20011.9381.9302.0851.8931.8701.9012.2951.6291.8831.7312.0761.8331.9152.133 20022.1182.1112.2612.0022.0192.0552.4441.7292.0501.8352.2702.0342.1382.420 20032.3102.3022.4592.1082.3772.2102.6531.8472.1751.8932.4012.2052.2672.656Note: 2003 values are preliminary. District 1 (Bay, Escambia, Holmes, Okaloosa, Santa Rosa, Walton, and Washington Cos.), Dist rict 2 (Calhoun, Franklin, Gadsden, Gulf, Jackson, Jefferson, Leon, Liberty, and Wakulla Cos.), District 3 (Alachua, Bradford, Columbia, Dixie, Gilchrist, Hamilton, Laf ayette, Madison, Suwannee, Taylor, and Union Cos.), District 4 (Baker, Clay, [adeq. data not avail. for Duval], Nassau, Putnam, and St. Johns Cos.), District 5 (Citus, Le vy, Marion, and Sumter Cos.), District 6 (Brevard, Flagler, Lake, Orange, Osceola, Seminole, and Volusia Cos.), District 7 (De Soto, Hardee, Highlands, Okeechobee, and Polk Cos. ), District 8 (Hernando, Hillsborough, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas, and Sarasota Cos.), District 9 (Charlotte, Collier, Glades, Hendry, and Lee Cos.), District 10 (Ind ian River, Martin, Palm Beach, and St. Lucie Cos.), and District 11 (Broward, Dade, and Monroe Cos.)

PAGE 70

64The State of FloridasHousing 2004 T able 5.4: Annual House Price Appreciation (%) for Florida Districts (1981-2002)AllAllNonDist.Dist.Dist.Dist.Dist.Dist.Dist.Dist.Dist.Dist.Dist. FL MSA MSA 1234567891011 19817.257.384.706.937.41-0.6714.086.146.607.269.967.698.456.56 19822.422.373.545.161.632.644.475.561.940.372.68-0.861.152.39 19832.782.812.092.273.287.473.17-2.614.712.664.18-0.692.690.87 19842.712.585.364.181.944.495.605.454.282.433.661.040.980.54 19851.992.050.852.68-0.28-4.493.40-0.172.770.522.20-0.031.060.70 19861.891.862.570.020.267.431.34-0.201.862.003.473.862.653.44 19873.293.195.281.190.516.532.844.932.170.362.502.932.134.51 19883.023.013.33-0.234.10-5.074.09-0.592.172.751.573.996.164.40 19892.972.924.010.761.785.612.192.903.183.091.977.263.603.93 19901.741.731.92-0.652.880.14-0.620.961.58-0.130.734.042.112.47 1991-0.69-0.72-0.261.173.120.820.26-1.96-0.740.40-1.410.00-1.350.10 1992-0.18-0.302.092.972.090.301.09-1.66-0.190.990.56-0.48-1.27-0.11 19931.921.912.123.31-0.154.143.623.811.692.741.96-0.631.024.43 19943.883.874.135.206.723.092.172.691.793.123.751.472.745.14 19952.071.973.883.613.615.653.221.462.213.482.332.021.813.09 19963.143.182.426.185.043.683.732.541.672.132.720.832.323.08 19972.662.623.394.062.484.664.372.472.842.372.952.932.482.26 19984.844.815.314.284.244.515.672.594.805.335.703.634.754.23 19995.245.274.814.703.445.526.765.245.014.226.235.615.894.97 20006.816.846.263.786.135.035.294.907.494.468.067.277.218.16 20017.907.937.293.633.774.978.965.676.885.419.3210.6010.2512.79 20029.319.368.455.807.968.106.486.168.866.019.3610.9911.6213.46 20039.049.058.765.25n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Note: 2003 values are preliminary.Annual rates of house price appreciation and the respective correlations of the 21-year series are noted in Tables 5.4 and 5.5. House price movements are found to be highly correlated among Districts 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, and 11 (i.e., through East Central, Central, Tampa Bay, Southwest Florida, and South Florida including the O rlando, and Miami areas), and between the districts comprising Jacksonville, Orlando, and Tampa. Interestingly, D istrict 3 (i.e., Gainesville and its surrounding counties) appears to experience the lowest correlation of house price movements with other districts in the state. Table 5.5 suggests that, with some exceptions, the states housing market can be broadly described in terms of three general marketsnorthwest, central and south.

PAGE 71

65 T able 5.5: Correlation of Annual Appreciation Rates between Districts (1981-2002)AllAllNonDist.Dist.Dist.Dist.Dist.Dist.Dist.Dist.Dist.Dist.Dist. FL MSA MSA 1234567891011 Florida1.00 All MSAs1.001.00 Non-MSA0.900.891.00 Dist.-10.550.550.461.00 Dist.-20.710.710.640.481.00 Dist.-30.370.360.520.220.231.00 Dist.-40.780.790.640.680.510.091.00 Dist.-50.740.740.800.610.420.380.691.00 Dist.-60.920.920.810.480.510.390.760.641.00 Dist.-70.770.770.640.550.440.270.780.500.791.00 Dist.-80.910.910.770.600.480.350.840.670.930.871.00 Dist.-90.840.840.780.170.530.300.580.580.780.690.751.00 Dist.-100.920.920.770.350.510.230.710.570.880.820.890.901.00 Dist.-110.910.910.840.370.580.380.600.670.780.690.800.870.901.00

PAGE 72

66The State of FloridasHousing 2004 5.4 MSA-Level Measures of Single-Family House Price Appreciation in FloridaAv erage annual rates of appreciation are listed for five-year periods from 19812000 and for the 2001-2003 period in T able 5.6. The table also includes the r elative ranking of each MSA among the 20 MSAs. During the 1980 to 1985 period, the larger MSAs of Jacksonville and Tampa-St. Petersburg generally led other MSAs in house price appreciation. In the second half of the 1980s, MSAs located in the southern portion of the state, particularly MSAs such as Naples, P unta Gorda, and Ft. Myers in the southwest, led the rest of the state in house price appreciation. The 1991 to 1995 period, a slow growth period, saw a change in this trend with relatively rapid appreciation in the northwest area of Florida. During the first half of the 1990s, areas such as Panama City, Ft. W alton Beach, Pensacola, and Tallahassee outperformed all other MSAs with the exception of Miami. In the last half of the 1990s, the trend in house price appreciation looked much like the early 1980s, with Jacksonville, Tampa-St. P etersburg and Naples once again among the states leaders. Estimates indicate that the MSAs in South Florida have experienced exceptionally rapid house price appreciation in the first few years after 2000. This is most likely due to continued population growth and the constrained supply of developable land it that area of the state. It is interesting to note that the Naples and Miami MSAs were among the highest quartile in terms of average annual house price appreciation rates in three of the four five-year periods studied, and have continued to experience rapid appreciation rates into the 2000s. In addition, most areas experienced periods of rapid growth and slow growth in house prices relative to the other Florida MSAs. O nly Sarasota-Bradenton and Ocala MSA have been ranked in all periods to be in the top 10 (of 20) and bottom 10, r espectively. H ouse price indices are reported for each of the 20 MSAs, as well as the state, all MSAs, and all non-MSA areas in Table 5.7.6 Annual rates of appreciation from 1981 to 2002, constructed from the indices listed in Table 5.7, are listed in T able 5.8 for all MSAs in Florida.5.5 County-Level Measures of House Price Appreciation in FloridaEstimates of house price appreciation for the 1996 to 2002 period are reported for all Florida counties, listed by district, in Table 5.9. Estimates are reported for counties having sufficient transaction information. In some districts, the small counties are grouped to provide more r eliable estimates. Adequate data are not available to provide reliable estimates for 2003. D uring the 2001 to 2002 period, annual house price appreciation rates exceeded 10.0 percent in ten counties (areas), with Monroe (14.41%), Dade (11.92%), and Broward (11.77%) topping the list. It is interesting to note that all of the ten highest appreciation counties (areas) are located in the S outheastern or Southwestern portion of the state. In contrast, five areas experienced average annual appreciation rates of less than 5.0 percent over this same period: Escambia (3.28%); Santa R osa (3.71%); the small counties of D istricts 4 (3.72%); Clay (4.65%); and O kaloosa (4.76%). Table 5.10 reports the estimates of annual house price appreciation for the state and county areas for each year from 1996 through 2002. 6N ote that the estimated appreciation rates for the Jacksonville MSA include primarily Clay, Nassau, and St. Johns counties. They do not substantially include Duval County, due to the limited data available.

PAGE 73

67 T able 5.6: Average Annual Percentage Appreciation and Period Rankings By MSA For Selected Periods (1981)Metropolitan Statistical Area1981-851986-901991-951996-002001-03 (rank)(rank)(rank)(rank)(rank) Florida (All MSAs)3.442.541.354.548.78 Pensacola MSA (Dist. 1)4.20 (6)0.09 (18)2.81 (5)4.90 (5)3.39 (20) Ft. Walton Beach MSA (Dist. 1)4.67 (3)-0.04 (19)3.67 (2)4.34 (10)4.76 (19) Panama City MSA (Dist. 1)3.01 (11)0.92 (17)3.78 (1)4.13 (12)7.77 (14) T allahassee MSA (Dist. 2)2.81 (12)2.07 (11)2.58 (6)3.77 (17)8.04 (10) Gainesville MSA (Dist. 3) n.a.n.a.3.35 (4)4.80 (8)7.12 (15) Jacksonville MSA (Dist. 4)7.38 (1)1.81 (13)1.84 (9)5.37 (2)7.84 (11) Ocala MSA (Dist. 5)2.63 (14)1.11 (16)1.25 (13)3.95 (16)5.47 (18) Daytona Beach MSA (Dist. 6)3.35 (7)2.88 (8)1.20 (14)4.04 (14)8.69 (9) Orlando MSA (Dist. 6)4.66 (4)2.35 (10)0.94 (15)4.84 (6)6.76 (16) Melbourne-Titusville MSA (Dist. 6)3.05 (9)1.20 (15)0.78 (16)3.11 (20)7.79 (13) Lakeland MSA (Dist. 7)3.15 (8)1.48 (14)2.12 (7)4.09 (13)5.62 (17) T ampa-St.Pete. MSA (Dist. 8)4.76 (2)1.90 (12)1.35 (11)5.20 (3)7.80 (12) Sarasota-Bradenton MSA (Dist. 8)3.05 (9)2.84 (9)1.95 (8)4.79 (9)10.26 (8) Punta Gorda MSA (Dist. 9)0.58 (19)4.83 (2)-0.97 (20)4.26 (11)10.31 (7) Ft. Myers MSA (Dist. 9)2.03 (17)4.14 (3)1.34 (12)3.51 (18)10.34 (6) Naples MSA (Dist. 9)4.51 (5)5.90 (1)0.78 (16)5.67 (1)11.05 (5) Ft. Pierce MSA (Distr. 10)2.30 (15)3.20 (7)-0.50 (19)3.21 (19)11.16 (4) W est Palm Beach MSA (Dist. 10)2.69 (13)3.40 (5)0.36 (18)4.81 (7)11.64 (2) Ft. Lauderdale MSA (Dist. 11)1.89 (18)3.30 (6)1.81 (10)4.01 (15)11.17 (3) Miami MSA (Dist. 11)2.15 (16)3.79 (4)3.62 (3)5.12 (4)11.92 (1)Notes: Estimates for 2003 are preliminary. Shaded areas denote top quartile ranking. Pensacola MSA (Escambia and Santa Rosa Cos.), Ft. Walton Beach MSA (Okaloosa Co.); Panama City MSA (Bay County), Tallahassee MSA (Leon and Gadsden Cos.), Gainesville MSA (Alachua Co.[adeq data not avail all periods]), Jacksonville MSA (Clay, [adeq. data not avail. for Duval], Nassau, and St. Johns Cos.), Ocala MSA (Marion Co.), Daytona Beach MSA (Flagler and Volusia Cos.), Orlando MSA (Lake, Orange, Osceola, and Seminole Cos.), Melbourne-Titusville MSA (Brevard Co.), Lakeland MSA (Polk Co.), Tampa-St.Petersburg MSA (Hernando, Hillsborough, Pasco, and Pinellas Cos.), Sarasota-Bradenton MSA (Manatee and Sarasota Cos.), Punta Gorda MSA (Charlotte Co.), Ft. Myers-Cape Coral MSA (Lee Co.), Naples MSA (Collier Co.), Ft. Pierce-Port St. Lucie MSA (Martin and St. Lucie Cos.), West Palm Beach-Boca Raton MSA (Palm Beach Co.), Ft. Lauderdale MSA (Broward Co.), and Miami MSA (Dade Co.)

PAGE 74

68The State of FloridasHousing 2004 AllAllNonMSAMSAMSAMSAMSAMSAMSAMSA FL MSA MSA 12345678 FlorPensFt.WPanaTallGainJackOcalDayt 19801.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.000n.a.1.0001.0001.000 19811.0721.0741.0471.0781.0631.0301.073n.a.1.1821.0381.076 19821.0981.0991.0841.1241.1301.0521.113n.a.1.2501.1191.067 19831.1291.1301.1071.1251.2041.1041.139n.a.1.2701.0561.109 19841.1601.1591.1661.1691.2221.1941.147n.a.1.3541.1231.151 19851.1831.1831.1761.2271.2551.1561.147n.a.1.4181.1331.177 19861.2051.2051.2061.2161.2301.2141.142n.a.1.4121.1041.220 19871.2451.2441.2701.2231.2761.2181.149n.a.1.4651.1761.261 19881.2821.2811.3121.2091.2831.2251.201n.a.1.5151.1651.293 19891.3211.3181.3651.2301.2831.2141.226n.a.1.5531.1871.332 19901.3431.3411.3911.2321.2501.2081.2691.3431.5501.1941.356 19911.3341.3311.3871.2101.3051.2571.2871.3901.5361.1901.360 19921.3321.3271.4161.2531.3281.3091.3181.3921.5521.1671.366 19931.3571.3531.4461.2921.3911.3381.3181.4471.6151.2241.402 19941.4101.4051.5061.3581.4881.3821.3841.4961.6481.2591.411 19951.4391.4331.5651.4121.4961.4551.4411.5831.6971.2681.439 19961.4841.4781.6021.4951.6141.5371.5131.6461.7571.3271.455 19971.5241.5171.6571.5611.6701.5901.5391.7361.8431.3611.492 19981.5981.5901.7451.6461.6991.6721.5951.7951.9431.3971.552 19991.6811.6741.8291.7271.7451.7671.6471.8962.0951.4751.629 20001.7961.7881.9431.7941.8471.7791.7332.0012.2031.5391.752 20011.9381.9302.0851.8451.9011.9161.8072.1182.3961.6331.891 20022.1182.1112.2611.9252.0172.0461.9362.2692.5771.7122.096 20032.3102.3022.459n.an.an.an.an.an.an.an.a Note: 2003 values are preliminary. T able 5.7: Annual House Price Indices for Florida Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs)

PAGE 75

69 MSAMSAMSAMSAMSAMSAMSAMSAMSAMSAMSAMSA 91011121314151617181920 OrlaMelbLakeTampSaraPuntFt.MNaplFt.PWPBFt.LMiam 1.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.000 1.0691.0451.0761.1061.0671.0451.1021.2171.1081.0811.0321.098 1.1001.0711.0841.1361.0861.0561.0801.1691.1311.0931.0791.101 1.1631.0971.1291.1871.1071.0211.0811.2591.1681.1141.0881.107 1.2191.1281.1431.2321.1421.0211.1011.1991.0911.1281.0941.110 1.2551.1621.1661.2591.1611.0281.1011.2221.1121.1401.0981.109 1.2691.1831.1871.3051.1881.0631.1431.2911.1431.1711.1391.141 1.3011.1861.1931.3381.2161.1061.1731.3541.1801.1951.1881.186 1.3351.2001.2261.3581.2501.1321.2241.3821.2441.2711.2301.244 1.3781.2361.2621.3791.3001.2401.3001.5331.2831.3071.2681.297 1.4091.2331.2541.3831.3351.2991.3481.6241.3021.3461.2911.335 1.4041.2021.2661.3581.3441.2661.3661.5961.2931.3151.2821.354 1.3871.2241.2651.3661.3491.2271.3711.6201.2621.2931.2901.331 1.4161.2261.3011.3881.3991.2441.3631.5771.2281.3161.3391.410 1.4441.2491.3491.4431.4401.2581.3771.6681.2651.3511.3691.541 1.4761.2811.3921.4771.4701.2361.4401.6841.2681.3691.4101.589 1.5071.2901.4311.5131.5271.2751.4311.7221.2691.4061.4411.661 1.5551.3201.4681.5591.5681.2951.4821.7931.3171.4401.4621.710 1.6411.3571.5481.6501.6501.3411.5251.8921.3461.5071.5201.784 1.7271.4151.6301.7561.7381.4141.6042.0201.4041.6051.5841.893 1.8671.4921.7011.9021.8571.5241.7082.2161.4841.7291.7152.039 1.9921.5931.7912.0752.0491.6831.8792.4971.6311.9231.9302.289 2.1511.7511.8972.2622.2731.8642.1042.7321.8182.1552.1972.602 n.an.an.an.an.an.an.an.an.an.an.an.a (1980-2002)

PAGE 76

70The State of FloridasHousing 2004 AllAllNonMSAMSAMSAMSAMSAMSA FL MSA MSA 1 23456 FlorPensFt.WPanaTallGainJack 19817.257.384.707.826.273.017.26n.a.18.20 19822.422.373.544.226.292.113.77n.a.5.78 19832.782.812.090.086.604.992.37n.a.1.61 19842.712.585.363.911.528.130.66n.a.6.55 19851.992.050.854.962.65-3.22-0.03n.a.4.77 19861.891.862.57-0.88-1.955.07-0.42n.a.-0.42 19873.293.195.280.593.690.300.61n.a.3.76 19883.023.013.33-1.170.570.614.57n.a.3.36 19892.972.924.011.73-0.02-0.972.02n.a.2.53 19901.741.731.920.17-2.51-0.433.54n.a.-0.18 1991-0.69-0.72-0.26-1.764.334.021.423.46-0.89 1992-0.18-0.302.093.551.784.112.350.151.03 19931.921.912.123.094.752.270.023.924.02 19943.883.874.135.146.973.305.023.402.09 19952.071.973.884.020.535.214.105.832.97 19963.143.182.425.857.925.695.053.973.52 19972.662.623.394.443.463.421.695.484.88 19984.844.815.315.411.765.153.663.395.43 19995.245.274.814.912.675.703.255.637.84 20006.816.846.263.915.880.685.185.565.16 20017.907.937.292.842.917.694.315.868.74 20029.319.368.454.316.116.797.157.107.55 20039.049.058.76n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a. Note: 2003 values are preliminary. T able 5.8: Annual House Price Appreciation (%) for Florida Metropolitan

PAGE 77

71 MSAMSAMSAMSAMSAMSAMSAMSAMSAMSAMSAMSAMSAMSA 7 89101 1121314151617181920 OcalDaytOrlaMelbLakeTampSaraPuntFt.MNaplFt.PWPBFt.LMiam 3.757.656.864.497.6310.566.724.4810.1921.6710.848.113.259.75 7.83-0.872.912.510.672.781.751.04-1.99-3.952.011.074.510.33 -5.563.965.792.424.234.431.98-3.310.067.753.281.960.800.51 6.253.724.802.801.193.853.110.061.90-4.80-6.581.260.590.26 0.912.302.923.052.022.201.670.610.001.911.971.030.32-0.09 -2.563.671.171.761.773.602.373.463.805.652.792.713.742.89 6.563.322.520.290.502.542.344.062.624.913.172.054.303.97 -0.932.522.601.162.801.512.772.354.372.115.446.383.594.90 1.893.093.193.022.971.533.979.526.2310.883.102.893.054.22 0.581.802.25-0.24-0.640.312.754.763.685.931.482.961.792.97 -0.300.26-0.32-2.540.92-1.820.65-2.521.32-1.70-0.66-2.31-0.671.38 -1.930.48-1.221.85-0.080.600.34-3.070.401.47-2.43-1.680.64-1.63 4.832.612.050.152.891.623.741.34-0.61-2.66-2.701.753.755.92 2.900.622.011.863.653.922.931.131.025.773.042.672.329.29 0.742.022.192.563.202.402.08-1.734.541.000.251.362.993.12 4.651.072.090.752.802.443.903.15-0.582.250.082.732.184.51 2.552.573.202.332.613.042.661.533.534.133.752.411.412.97 2.634.005.572.745.445.815.213.563.005.522.254.634.014.31 5.554.975.234.345.276.415.355.455.086.774.306.524.206.12 4.397.598.125.384.358.326.827.746.496.685.707.748.257.71 6.097.896.676.775.319.1010.3610.449.9912.699.9011.1712.5812.26 4.8410.888.009.955.939.0310.9210.7711.999.4111.4712.1113.8313.66 n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a. Statistical Areas (MSAs) (1981-2002)

PAGE 78

72The State of FloridasHousing 2004 County2001-2002County2001-2002 FloridaOsceola Co. (All Counties) 8.75 (Dist. 6, Orlando MSA) 5.68 FloridaSeminole Co. (All MSAs) 8.78 (Dist. 6, Orlando MSA) 7.39 FloridaBrevard Co. (All non-MSA Counties) 8.16 (Dist. 6, Melbourne MSA) 7.79 Escambia Co.Polk Co. (Dist. 1, Pensacola MSA) 3.26 (Dist. 7, Lakeland MSA) 5.62 Santa Rosa Co.District 7 Small Counties (Dist. 1, Pensacola MSA) 3.71 (Dist. 7) 5.94 Okaloosa Co.Hernando Co. (Dist. 1, Ft. Walton Beach MSA) 4.76 (Dist. 8, Tampa-St.P. MSA) 6.60 Bay Co.Hillsborough Co. (Dist. 1, Panama City MSA) 7.77 (Dist. 8, Tampa-St.Pete. MSA) 7.27 District 1 Small CountiesPasco Co. (Dist. 1) 7.17 (Dist. 8, Tampa-St.Pete. MSA) 9.52 Leon Co.Pinellas Co. (Dist. 2, Tallahassee MSA) 5.84 (Dist. 8, Tampa-St.Pete. MSA) 8.11 District 2 Small CountiesManatee Co. (Dist. 2) 6.66 (Dist. 8, Sarasota MSA) 9.54 Alachua Co.Sarasota Co. (Dist. 3) 7.12 (Dist. 8, Sarasota MSA) 10.39 District 3 Small CountiesCharlotte Co. (Dist. 3) 6.02 (Dist. 9, Punta Gorda MSA) 10.31 Clay Co.Lee Co. (Dist. 4, Jacksonville MSA) 4.65 (Dist. 9, Ft. Myers MSA) 10.34 (Duval Co.)Collier Co. (Dist. 4, Jacksonville MSA) n.a. (Dist. 9, Naples MSA) 11.05 St. Johns Co.District 9 Small Counties (Dist. 4, Jacksonville MSA) 9.41 (Dist. 9.) 8.16 District 4 Small CountiesIndian River Co. (Dist. 4) 3.72 (Dist. 10) 8.01 Citrus Co.Martin Co. (Dist. 5) 6.26 (Dist. 10, Ft. Pierce MSA) 11.21 Marion Co.St. Lucie Co. (Dist. 5, Ocala MSA) 5.47 (Dist. 10, Ft. Pierce MSA) 11.23 District 5 Small CountiesPalm Beach Co. (Dist. 5) 6.51 (Dist. 10, W. Palm Beach MSA) 11.64 V olusia Co.Broward Co. (Dist. 6, Daytona MSA) 8.64 (Dist. 11, Ft. Lauderdale MSA) 11.77 Lake Co.Dade Co. (Dist. 6, Orlando MSA) 5.43 (Dist. 11, Miami MSA) 11.92 Orange Co.Monroe Co. (Dist. 6, Orlando MSA) 6.92 (Dist. 11) 14.41 Notes: Multi-county estimates may vary from MSA estimates due to small sample estimation error. Shaded areas denote top quartile return. Flagler, and Duval Cos. not estimated due to insufficient data. District 1 small cos. are Holmes, Walton, and Washington. District 2 small cos. are Calhoun, Franklin, Gadsden, Gulf, Jackson, Jefferson, Liberty, and Wakulla. District 3 small cos. are Bradford, Columbia, Dixie, Gilchrist, Hamilton, Lafayette, Madison, Suwannee, Taylor, and Union. District 4 small cos. are Baker and Putnam. District 5 small cos. are Levy and Sumter. District 7 small cos. are De Soto, Hardee, Highlands, Okeechobee. District 9 small cos, are Glades and Hendry. T able 5.9: Average Annual Percentage Appreciation and Period Rankings By County (2001)

PAGE 79

73 The data used in this report have been summarized for all 67 Florida Counties and many of Floridas cities. This information can be found and downloaded into Microsoft Excel by going to the following website: www.flhousingdata.shimberg.ufl.edu/DAT_introduction.html and selecting the Construction and Sales Data link. ____________ A Technical Appendix in PDF format containing this summarized data can be found at: www.flhousingdata.shimberg.ufl.edu/publications.html

PAGE 80

74The State of Floridas Housing, 2004 County Key: Duva: Duval (Dist. 4) St.J: St. Johns (Dist. 4) Citr: Citrus (Dist. 5) Mari: Marion (Dist. 5) D5sm: District 5 Small Cos. V olu: Volusia (Dist. 6) Lake: Lake (Dist. 6) Oran: Orange (Dist. 6) Osce: Osceola (Dist. 6) Semi: Seminole (Dist. 6) T able 5.10: Annual House Price Appreciation (%) for Selected Counties (1996 2002)Y earFLEscaSantOkalBayD1smLeonD2smAlacD3sm 19963.145.557.317.925.690.615.076.343.973.05 19972.664.703.273.463.427.391.466.925.483.02 19984.845.993.841.765.152.843.707.593.397.05 19995.244.844.892.675.7011.493.204.355.635.36 20006.813.365.675.880.684.974.9510.475.563.52 20017.904.92-2.232.917.691.094.783.965.862.76 20029.312.468.946.116.7912.126.909.777.1010.61 Y earSemiBrevPolkD7smHernHillPascPineManaSara 19961.950.752.800.310.792.312.642.525.043.34 19973.542.332.611.383.203.260.683.491.663.28 19985.512.745.445.031.366.654.495.904.245.60 19994.694.345.270.943.906.405.356.946.324.79 20009.375.384.354.945.357.637.199.796.826.97 20016.956.775.315.856.328.429.769.7610.6610.18 20028.919.955.936.368.338.169.289.908.4112.18 FL: Florida (All Counties) Esca: Escambia (Dist.1) Sant: Santa Rosa (Dist. 1) Okal: Okaloosa (Dist. 1) Bay: Bay (Dist. 1) D1sm: District 1 Small Cos. Leon: Leon (Dist. 2) D2sm: District 2 Small Cos. Alac: Alachua (Dist. 3) D3sm: District 3 Small Cos. Clay: Clay (Dist. 4)

PAGE 81

75 Brev: Brevard (Dist. 6) Polk: Polk (Dist. 7) D7sm: District 7 Small Cos. Hern: Hernando (Dist. 8) Hill: Hillsborough (Dist. 8) Pasc: Pasco (Dist. 8) Pine: Pinellas (Dist. 8) Mana: Manatee (Dist. 8) Sara: Sarasota (Dist. 8) Char: Charlotte (Dist. 9) Lee: Lee (Dist. 9) Coll: Collier (Dist. 9) D9sm: District 9 Small Cos. Indi: Indian River (Dist. 10) Mart: Martin (Dist. 10) St.L: St.Lucie (Dist. 10) P .Bch: Palm Beach (Dist. 10) Brow: Broward (Dist. 11) Miam: Miami (Dist. 11) Monr. Monroe (Dist. 11) ClayDuvlSt.JD4smCitrMariD5smVoluLakeOranOsce 1.66n.a.7.405.29-0.754.650.071.151.212.193.52 4.62n.a.5.641.642.192.552.592.625.632.841.61 3.49n.a.6.486.282.982.632.234.054.765.853.85 6.32n.a.8.200.924.375.555.194.964.155.566.21 5.436.357.167.835.784.395.457.587.298.185.21 5.136.2410.628.525.056.095.307.994.696.906.38 5.2512.637.64-1.077.214.847.6110.946.698.206.06 CharLeeCollD9smIndiMartSt.LP.B.BrowMiamMonr 3.15-0.582.253.653.68-2.011.572.732.184.514.41 1.533.534.131.480.684.553.192.411.412.975.81 3.563.005.522.526.713.671.184.634.014.318.23 5.455.086.779.004.994.824.026.524.206.126.10 7.746.499.682.416.235.295.987.748.257.7110.02 10.449.9912.693.295.388.9010.8411.1712.5812.2615.92 10.7711.999.416.4312.4111.0511.7412.1113.8313.6612.89

PAGE 82

76The State of FloridasHousing 2004 5.6 Forecasts of Stateand MSA-Level House Price ChangesChanges in population, real income, mortgage interest rates, housing starts, and price changes in previous periods are shown in this section to affect MSA house price levels. The effects of these selected explanatory variables on inflation-adjusted house price appreciation are displayed in Table 5.11. N ote the inflation-adjusted price appreciation is calculated as: The effects of the explanatory variables on inflation-adjusted house price appreciation is estimated using a fixed-effects regression model that incorporates the time-series, crosssectional, nature of the data such that where X denotes a vector of independent economic and demographic variables, b is the estimated regression coefficient, a is an estimated vector of coefficients corresponding to each MSA, and e is the estimation error of the regression model. The reported figures are the estimated r egression coefficients.7 T -statistics, which measure the statistical significance of the explanatory variables, are reported in parentheses. The first column of Table 5.11 contains results for the 1981 to 2003 time period using only the six largest F lorida MSAs: Ft. Lauderdale, Ja cksonville, Miami, Orlando, Tampa-St. P etersburg, and West Palm Beach. This sample contains 131 observations. The estimated regression coefficient on the change in population is 0.508. This means that a 1-percent increase in this population group in the urban areas is associated with a 0.508 increase in the inflation-adjusted price of single-family housing. The estimated coefficient on changes in real per capita income of 0.393 also indicates a positive r elationship to percentage changes in real house prices. As expected, the level of the nominal mortgage rate is negatively associated with price changes. The coefficient can be interpreted as an increase of 1 percent in the rate results in a reduction of the inflation-adjusted house price of 0.5 percent. The estimated coefficient on housing starts is negative, suggesting that substantial new housing supply slows house price appreciation. F inally, changes in real house prices in the previous year are highly correlated with current changes. In all cases the coefficient signs are found to be consistent with expectations and statistically significant. The second column of Table 5.11 contains the results for the 1981 to 2003 period using data for all 20 MSAs. This sample contains 426 observations.8R elative to the regression using just the six largest MSAs, the effects of the economic variables retain their estimated signs and, generally, their magnitudes. It is noted that house price movements are more sensitive to percentage changes in population and housing starts in larger urban areas. This appears to be r easonable because large percentage changes in population and starts are not easily achieved in the more populous urban areas. inflation-adjusted appreciation = (1+apprecation rate) (1+inflation rate) -1 [ ]inflation-adjusted house price appreciation = a + b X + e 7The fixed-effects estimation procedure is equivalent to using ordinary least squares with (indicator) variables to capture the effects of being located in a particular MSA. The model dummy assumes, effectively, that the effect of the explanatory variables on house prices appreciation is the same in all MSAs. Unexplained variation in appreciation, presumably due to omitted explanatory variables, is not assumed to be constant across MSAs, and is captured in intercept terms that vary across the MSAs. These MSA intercept terms are not reported here, but are available upon request.8O bservations were not available for all years for all MSAs (see Table 7).

PAGE 83

77 Ta ken together, the results of Table 5.11 are robust. Increases in the number of individuals in their prime buying years and increases in inflation-adjusted per capita income have a significantly consistent positive effect on inflationadjusted house prices. Increases in the level of mortgage interest rates and housing starts have a consistent negative effect on appreciation. In addition, house price changes are persistent. These r egression results are consistent with findings in the housing research literature. The relative strength and stability of the estimated coefficients, along with the explanatory power of the model, suggest that it can be used to project reasonable estimates of future house prices. The historical regression analyses are used to forecast the average annual rates of price appreciation for each MSA overExplanatory VariableSix Largest MSAsAll MSAs Pct. Annual Change in Population (Age 20-54)0.508 (2.11)*0.177 (1.32) Pct. Annual Change in InflationAdjusted Per Capita Income0.393 (5.01)*0.416 (7.94)* Level of Nominal Mortgage Interest Rate-0.005 (-5.11)*-0.006 (-8.51)* Housing Starts in Previous Year as Pct. of Total Households-1.421 (-2.99)*-0.386 (-1.58) House Price Appreciation in Previous Year0.632 (10.04)*0.427 (10.08)* No. of Observations131426 Adjusted Model R-Squared0.650.48Notes: The six largest MSAs are Ft. Lauderdale, Jacksonville, Miami, Orlando, Tampa, and West Palm Beach. The figures reported are the estimated model coefficients, b, with their t-statistics in parentheses. Estimated model: House Price Appreciation = a + S bX, where b is the estimated coefficient, X the vector of explanatory variables, and a the vector of dummy variables for each of the respective MSAs. * indicates that the coefficient is statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. The house price appreciation equation is estimated using a fixed-effects model that incorporates the time-series, cross-sectional, nature of the data. This estimation procedure is equivalent to using ordinary least squares with dummy (indicator) variables to capture the effects of being located in a particular MSA. The model assumes, effectively, that the effect of the explanatory variables on house price appreciation is the same in all MSAs. Unexplained variation in appreciation, presumably due to omitted explanatory variables, is not assumed to be constant across the MSAs, and is captured in intercept terms that vary across the MSAs. These MSA intercept terms are not reported here, but are available upon request.the 2001 to 2010 period. For comparison, the forecasts are reported along with the average annual appreciation rates for the previous 10y ear periods in Table 5.12. The economic data required for the forecasts comes from the F lorida Long-Term E conomic Forecast, 2001 by the Bureau of Economic and Business Research at the University of Florida. The Bureaus estimates of expected population, real per capita income, and housing starts are employed in our appreciation forecasts. Mo r tgage rates are assumed to average their 1999 to 2003 average level of approximately 7.0 percent for the 5-year period. To report nominal appreciation, annual inflation during the 2001 to 2010 period is assumed to be 2.4 percent (again, the average annual rate from 1999 to 2003). It is important to note that forecasting T able 5.11: Explaining Past Changes in Real Single-Family House Prices Using Economic and Demographic Variables (1981-2003)

PAGE 84

78The State of FloridasHousing 2004 r equires the assumption that the historical relations between inflationadjusted price appreciation and the explanatory variables such as population, inflation-adjusted per capita income, housing starts, mortgage rates, and past appreciation continue into the future. Certainly, this may be only a rough approximation of the effect these v ariables will actually have going forward. In addition, the appreciation estimates are based on the BEBRs underlying forecast of the respective economic v ariables, as well as the assumption that average interest rates and general inflation will be consistent with the past 5-year period. Av erage house price appreciation rates for the state of Florida, reported in Table 5.12, are estimated to be 6.90 percent per year (i.e., 4.50 percent above expected inflation). In general, the highest annual appreciation rates are forecast for the southern portions of the state (e.g., M iami, 9.12%; Ft. Lauderdale, 8.71%; We st Palm Beach, 8.28%; and Ft. Pierce, 7.70% per year). Other MSAs that are forecast to experience higher than average rates are Punta Gorda, 7.70%; SarasotaB radenton, 7.53%; and Ft. Myers, 7.50% per year). With the exception of P anama City, lower than average house price increases are forecast in the northwestern portions of the state (e.g., P ensacola, and Ft. Walton Beach) and in Ocala and Lakeland. The forecasted r elative annual appreciation ranking among the six largest MSAs is Miami (9.12%); Ft. Lauderdale (8.71%); West P alm Beach (8.28%); Jacksonville (6.19%); Orlando (6.53%); and TampaS t. Petersburg (6.44% per year).

PAGE 85

79 Metropolitan Statistical Area1971-801981-901991-002001-10 (rank)(rank)(rank)(rank) Florida (All MSAs)9.522.993.076.90 Pensacola MSA (Dist. 1)n.a.2.14 (16)4.00 (4)4.66 (20) Ft. Walton Beach MSA (Dist. 1)n.a.2.31 (15)4.11 (2)5.33 (18) Panama City MSA (Dist. 1)n.a.1.96 (18)3.93 (5)6.95 (10) T allahassee MSA (Dist. 2)n.a.2.44 (13)3.18 (10)6.68 (12) Gainesville MSA (Dist. 3)n.a.n.a.4.11 (2)6.61 (13) Jacksonville MSA (Dist. 4)8.34 (6)*4.60 (2)3.81 (6)6.19 (8) Ocala MSA (Dist. 5)n.a.1.87 (19)2.76 (14)5.29 (19) Daytona Beach MSA (Dist. 6)n.a.3.12 (5)2.73 (15)6.88 (11) Orlando MSA (Dist. 6)9.82 (3)3.50 (3)2.95 (13)6.53 (14) Melbourne-Titusville MSA (Dist. 6)n.a.2.13 (17)2.04 (18)6.30 (16) Lakeland MSA (Dist. 7)n.a.2.32 (14)3.07 (11)5.79 (17) T ampa-St.Pete. MSA (Dist. 8)8.76 (5)3.33 (4)3.33 (9)6.44 (15) Sarasota-Bradenton MSA (Dist. 8)n.a.2.94 (9)3.51 (7)7.53 (6) Punta Gorda MSA (Dist. 9)n.a.2.70 (11)1.71 (19)7.70 (4) Ft. Myers MSA (Dist. 9)n.a.3.09 (6)2.48 (17)7.50 (7) Naples MSA (Dist. 9)n.a.5.20 (1)3.36 (8)6.98 (9) Ft. Pierce MSA (Distr. 10)n.a.2.75 (10)1.37 (20)7.70 (4) W est Palm Beach MSA (Dist. 10)10.18 (1)3.04 (7)2.66 (16)8.28 (3) Ft. Lauderdale MSA (Dist. 11)9.89 (2)2.59 (12)3.07 (11)8.71 (2) Miami MSA (Dist. 11)9.73 (4)2.97 (8)4.48 (1)9.12 (1)Notes: Shaded areas denote top quartile ranking. *Data from previous report. Pensacola MSA (Escambia and Santa Rosa Cos.), Ft. Walton Beach MSA (Okaloosa Co.); Panama City MSA (Bay County), Tallahassee MSA (Leon and Gadsden Cos.), Gainesville MSA (Alachua Co.), Jacksonville MSA (Clay Nassau, and St. Johns Cos. [adeq. data not avail. for Duval]), Ocala MSA (Marion Co.), Daytona Beach MSA (Flagler and Volusia Cos.), Orlando MSA (Lake, Orange, Osceola, and Seminole Cos.), Melbourne-Titusville MSA (Brevard Co.), Lakeland MSA (Polk Co.), T ampa-St.Petersburg MSA (Hernando, Hillsborough, Pasco, and Pinellas Cos.), Sarasota-Bradenton MSA (Manatee and Sarasota Cos.), Punta Gorda MSA (Charlotte Co.), Ft. Myers-Cape Coral MSA (Lee Co.), Naples MSA (Collier Co.), Ft. Pierce-Port St. Lucie MSA (Martin and St. Lucie Cos.), West Palm Beach-Boca Raton MSA (Palm Beach Co.), Ft. Lauderdale MSA (Broward Co.), and Miami MSA (Dade Co.). 2001-2010 forecast based on model estimates reported in Table 5.13 using projected economic and demographic data from the Bureau of Economic and Business Research at the University of Florida. T able 5.12: Average Annual Percentage Appreciation and Period Rankings By MSA Ten-Year Periods (1971) with Ten-Year Projection (2001-10)

PAGE 86

80The State of FloridasHousing 2004 DistrictMSACounty District 1: West FloridaPanama CityBay District 1: West FloridaPensacolaEscambia District 1: West FloridaPensacolaSanta Rosa District 1: West FloridaFt. Walton BeachOkaloosa District 1: West FloridaNon-MSA countyHolmes District 1: West FloridaNon-MSA countyWalton District 1: West FloridaNon-MSA countyWashington District 2: ApalacheeTallahasseeGadsden District 2: ApalacheeTallahasseeLeon District 2: ApalacheeNon-MSA countyCalhoun District 2: ApalacheeNon-MSA countyFranklin District 2: ApalacheeNon-MSA countyGulf District 2: ApalacheeNon-MSA countyJackson District 2: ApalacheeNon-MSA countyJefferson District 2: ApalacheeNon-MSA countyLiberty District 2: ApalacheeNon-MSA countyWakulla District 3: N. Central FloridaGainesvilleAlachua District 3: N. Central FloridaNon-MSA countyBradford District 3: N. Central FloridaNon-MSA countyColumbia District 3: N. Central FloridaNon-MSA countyDixie District 3: N. Central FloridaNon-MSA countyGilchrist District 3: N. Central FloridaNon-MSA countyHamilton District 3: N. Central FloridaNon-MSA countyLafayette District 3: N. Central FloridaNon-MSA countyMadison District 3: N. Central FloridaNon-MSA countySuwannee District 3: N. Central FloridaNon-MSA countyTaylor District 3: N. Central FloridaNon-MSA countyUnion District 4: Northeast FloridaJacksonvilleClay District 4: Northeast FloridaJacksonvilleDuval District 4: Northeast FloridaJacksonvilleNassau District 4: Northeast FloridaJacksonvilleSt. Johns District 4: Northeast FloridaNon-MSA countyBaker District 4: Northeast FloridaNon-MSA countyPutnam District 5: WithlacoocheeOcalaMarion District 5: WithlacoocheeNon-MSA countyCitrus District 5: WithlacoocheeNon-MSA countyLevy District 5: WithlacoocheeNon-MSA countySumter District 6: E. Central FloridaMelbourneBrevard District 6: E. Central FloridaDaytona BeachFlagler District 6: E. Central FloridaDaytona BeachVolusia District 6: E. Central FloridaOrlandoLakeT able 5.13: District, MSA and Counties listed by District Location(Northwest Florida to Southeast Florida) 5.13: District, MSA and Counties listed by District Location (Northwest Florida to Southeast Florida)

PAGE 87

81 District 6: E. Central FloridaOrlandoOrange District 6: E. Central FloridaOrlandoOsceola District 6: E. Central FloridaOrlandoSeminole District 7: Central FloridaLakelandPolk District 7: Central FloridaNon-MSA countyDe Soto District 7: Central FloridaNon-MSA countyHardee District 7: Central FloridaNon-MSA countyHighlands District 7: Central FloridaNon-MSA countyOkeechobee District 8: Tampa BayTampa St. PetersburgHernando District 8: Tampa BayTampa St. PetersburgHillsborough District 8: Tampa BayTampa St. PetersburgPasco District 8: Tampa BayTampa St. PetersburgPinellas District 8: Tampa BaySarasota BradentonManatee District 8: Tampa BaySarasota BradentonSarasota District 9: Southwest FloridaPunta GordaCharlotte District 9: Southwest FloridaNaplesCollier District 9: Southwest FloridaFt. MyersLee District 9: Southwest FloridaNon-MSA countyGlades District 9: Southwest FloridaNon-MSA countyHendry District 10: Treasure CoastFt. Pierce Port St. LucieMartin District 10: Treasure CoastFt. Pierce Port St. LucieSt. Lucie District 10: Treasure CoastWest Palm BeachPalm Beach District 10: Treasure CoastNon-MSA countyIndian River District 11: South FloridaFt. LauderdaleBroward District 11: South FloridaMiamiDade District 11: South FloridaNon-MSA countyMonroeT able 5.13: District, MSA and Counties listed by District Location(Northwest Florida to Southeast Florida) 5.13: District, MSA and Counties listed by District Location (Northwest Florida to Southeast Florida) (continued)

PAGE 88

82The State of FloridasHousing 2004 6. ConclusionF loridas 67 counties include 35 urban counties and the 32 rural counties. The urban counties can also be divided into those that are a part of the six major metropolitan areas and fifteen other metropolitan areas. Almost 94% of the single-family homes and 98% of condominiums are located in these urban counties. The rural counties can be further divided into coastal and noncoastal counties. Besides housing differences in the urban and rural counties, there are often also a number of differences in housing characteristics between coastal and non-coastal counties. These housing differences r eflect the differences in the characteristics of the population in different areas of the state. The population of the state is growing rapidly and is occurring throughout the state, but not uniformly. Different areas of the state are characterized by differences in the distribution of households by age, income, race, ethnicity, and county of origin. This r eport has shown that many areas of F lorida are heavily reliant on increases in the foreign born population while other areas of the state are experiencing much larger increases in their native born population or increases in the number of U.S. citizens migrating from other states. In contrast, there are also areas of the state that have experienced population growth simply due to the re location of Floridians from one county to another. This report has also shown there is great variability in the age of counties residents with some counties experiencing large growth in their elderly population, others experiencing large growth in their adult working age population, and others experiencing increases in their juvenile population. These are only a few of the differences that highlight the possibility that different counties will face different housing problems in the future. Si ngle-family housing units dominate the state, but condominiums are an important source of housing in some coastal counties and manufactured housing plays a key role in rural counties in the interior of the state. In spite of Fl oridas large gains in their housing stock, housing costs have continued to rise. Although the rate of appreciation is expected to slow, estimates indicate the rate will exceed 6 percent for the rest of the decade. As housing prices continue to increase in Florida, housing affordability is becoming more of a problem. This point can best be illustrated by the fact that this years housing affordability index has the most counties below 100 since 1995.

PAGE 89

SHIMBERG CENTER FOR AFFORDABLE HOUSING AND FLORIDA HOUSING DATA CLEARINGHOUSE DISCLAIMERThe Shimberg Center for Affordable Housing has compiled information on housing and demographic information for the convenience of consumers, policy makers, planners, program administrators and other interested parties throughout Florida. The Shimberg Center is committed to ensuring that the data in the Florida Housing Data Clearinghouse is as accurate as possible, consistent with any limitations on the inherent accuracy of the original data sources. Although every effort has been made to ensure that information is comprehensive and accurate, errors and omissions may exist. The Clearinghouse and the information included therein is provided on an "as is" basis. The Shimberg Center for Affordable Housing, the Florida Housing Data Clearinghouse, the University of Florida, or any of their respective faculty, staff, or administration specifically disclaim any warranty, either expressed or implied, including but not limited to the implied warranties of merchantability and fitness for a particular use. The entire risk as to quality and performance is with the user. Persons who notice information that is incomplete, incorrect, or out of date should contact the Shimberg Center at (800) 259-5705.

PAGE 90

S himberg Center for Affordable Housing U niversity of Florida P ost Office Box 115703 G ainesville, Florida 32611-5703 1-800-259-5705


PRIVATE ITEM
Digitization of this item is currently in progress.
State of Florida's Housing
ALL VOLUMES CITATION THUMBNAILS PDF VIEWER PAGE IMAGE ZOOMABLE
Full Citation
STANDARD VIEW MARC VIEW
Permanent Link: http://ufdc.ufl.edu/UF00087010/00009
 Material Information
Title: State of Florida's Housing
Physical Description: Serial
Language: English
Creator: Shimberg Center for Affordable Housing
Publisher: Shimberg Center for Affordable Housing
Place of Publication: Gainesville, Fla.
Publication Date: 2004
Copyright Date: 2010
 Record Information
Source Institution: University of Florida
Holding Location: University of Florida
Rights Management: All rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
System ID: UF00087010:00009

Downloads

This item has the following downloads:

( PDF )


Full Text

































iu

r M





























































































T is pb icain as' vl aanApdixcnaig

esiae of bo usin supl fo Ic oFl id it-ee

conie an man Foid ciis r valbeo







StateofFlorida's

Housing

200


Douglas White
Florida Housing Data Clearinghouse
Shimberg Center
University of Florida

Marc T Smith
Shimberg Center
University of Florida

Dean Gatzlaff
Real Estate Center
Florida State University

Mary Lois White
Albright College

Jim Martinez
Florida Housing Data Clearinghouse
Shimberg Center
University of Florida

Diep Nguyen
Florida Housing Data Clearinghouse
Shimberg Center
University of Florida

William O'Dell
Florida Housing Data Clearinghouse
Shimberg Center
University of Florida


Florida Housing Data Clearinghouse, Shimberg Center for
Affordable Housing, M. E. Rinker, Sr. School of Building
Construction, College of Design, Construction and Planning,
University of Florida
Clearinghouse website: www.flhousingdata.shimberg.ufl.edu

Major funding for this report provided by the State of Florida


















Acknowledgement


One of the primary objectives of the Florida Housing Data Clearinghouse
is to provide state and local policy makers and program planners with a central-
ized source for estimates of current housing supply. The Shimberg Center for
Affordable Housing wishes to acknowledge the continued support of the
Florida Housing Finance Corporation for the preparation of this report titled
The State ofFlorida 's Housing, 2004. We also acknowledge the valuable input
provided by the numerous county property appraiser offices throughout Florida
who have provided us invaluable assistance in understanding and clarifying the
information contained in The State ofFlorida 's Housing.


The databases and reports produced by the Florida Housing Data
Clearinghouse, including The State ofFlorida 's Housing, are publicly
accessible on the Internet and may be found in the following two ways: at
www.shimberg.ufl.edu, select "Fla. Housing Data" to access all available
materials or go directly to http://www.flhousingdata.shimberg.ufl.edu/. We
welcome comments to make the report more valuable.




Robert C. Stroh, Sr., Ph. D.
Director, Shimberg Center















U-e
State^^^^^ of Florida's^^^^

Ho^^^usingH

^*i2004^


Contents
1.0 Introdu action ........................ .. .... ................. ..... ..
2.0 Florida Population Changes Between 1990-2000 ..................................................4
2.1 Introduction
2.2 Statewide Population Changes
2.3 County Level Population Growth
2.4 Census Tract Population Growth
2.5 Changes in Income
2.6 Profile of St. Johns County
2.7 Conclusion
3.0 Florida's H housing Supply ................................................. ........................................... 25
3.1 Data Description
3.2 Geography
3.3 Single-family Housing
3.4 Condominiums
3.5 Multifamily Housing
3.6 Summary
4.0 H housing Prices and Affordability ........................................................ ................. 47
4.1 Introduction
4.2 Housing Affordability Index
5.0 Florida House Price Trends: Market Comparisons and Forecasts ......................................58
5.1 Introduction
5.2 Statewide Measures of Single-Family House Prices in Florida
5.3 District-Level Measures of Single-Family House Price Appreciation in Florida
5.4 MSA-Level Measures of Single-Family House Price Appreciation in Florida
5.5 County-Level Measures of House Price Appreciation in Florida
5.6 Forecasts of State and MSA-Level House Price Changes
6.0 C on clusion ............ ..................... ... ..... ... ..... ... ............ ....... ....... 8 2

Tables
2.1 A ge and G ender ................................. .. ..... ..... ... ... .......... ............. ..... ... 5
2.2 Florida's M igrant Population ................................................. ................................... 5
2.3 County Population Growth 1990-2000 ........................................ .......................... 6
2.4 O rigin of Florida's Population ................. ..................... ......... ......................................... 8
2.5 Year 2000 Resident's Location of Residence in 1995 for Residents within the U.S. ............ 10
2.6 Resident's Location of Work ......................................................... 12
2.7 Selected Population Growth Rates at the Census Tract Level........................................... 14
2.8 Population Increases by Age G roup ........................................... ............................. 16
2.9 Location of Residence in 1995 ................................................... ............................ 18
2.10 M edian Incom e (1999 D dollars) ................................................ .............................. 20
2.11 St. Johns County Census Tracts .................. ...................................... 22
2.12 Worker Population Growth -Census Tract Level .................................. .....................23







'^The I1

U-ae o Foria'

Hous^Win

*2004


2.13 Location of Residence in 1995 -Census Tract Level ............................................ 24
3.1 Single-fam ily H housing Stock ............................................ ............................... 30
3.2 Condom inium H housing Stock ................................................................... 38
3.3 Multifamily Housing Stock with Two to Nine Units in Complex ......................... 43
3.4 Multifamily Housing Stock with Ten or more Units in Complex .......................... 45
4.1 A affordability Index ............................................................ ........... ................. 50
4.2 Affordability Index Ranking 2002 ........................................ ................... ...... 53
4.3 Just Value Comparison of Owner-Occupied and
Non-Owner-Occupied Single-Family Homes ................................. ................. 54
4.4 Comparison of 2002 Median Hourly Wages to Qualifying Income ...................... 56
5.1 Summary of Florida House Price Appreciation ................................. ..................... 59
5.2 Average Annual Percentage Appreciation and Period Rankings by District .............. 62
5.3 Annual House Price Indices for Florida Districts................................................ 63
5.4 Annual House Price Appreciation (%) for Florida Districts ...................................... 64
5.5 Correlation of Annual Appreciation Rates between Districts .................................. 65
5.6 Average Annual Percentage Appreciation and Period Rankings By MSA ................. 67
5.7 Annual House Price Indices for Florida Metropolitan Statistical Areas .................. 68
5.8 Annual House Price Appreciation (%) for Florida Metropolitan Statistical Areas ...... 70
5.9 Average Annual Percentage Appreciation and Period Rankings By County.............. 72
5.10 Annual House Price Appreciation (%) for Selected Counties .............................. 74
5.11 Explaining Past Changes in Real Single-Family House Prices .............................. 77
5.12 Average Annual Percentage Appreciation and Period Rankings By MSA ............... 79
5.13 District, MSA and Counties listed by District Location ....................................... 80


Figures
Figure 3.1 Florida's 6 Major Metropolitan Areas ........................................ ............ 27
Figure 3.2 Florida's Remaining 15 Metropolitan Areas ................................................ 28
Figure 3.3 Florida's 4 N on-m metropolitan Areas ..................................... .................. ... 29
Figure 3.4 Percentage of State's Single-Family Housing Stock................................. 34
Figure 3.5 Median 2001 Sales Price Single-Family Home ............................................ 35
Figure 3.6 Percentage of State's Condominium Stock.................................................... 36
Figure 3.7 Median 2001 Sales Price for Condominiums .............................................. 37
Figure 5.1 Florida Annual House Price Index and Appreciation .................................. 60
Figure 5.2 Florida Annual House Price Appreciation ................................................... 61
Figure 5.3 Average Annual House Price Appreciation................................................ 61









1. Introduction


This study is a compendium of facts
on Florida's housing. The data highlight
the tremendous diversity in housing
characteristics across the state,
particularly between the 35 urban
counties and the 32 rural counties, as
well as between coastal and non-coastal
counties. The characteristics of Florida's
housing reflect the characteristics of the
state's population. The population of the
state is growing, creating a demand for
additional housing, yet that growth is not
distributed uniformly across the state.
Growth is most often a coastal
phenomenon. Further, the nature of the
growth differs across the state as
characterized by age, income, race,
ethnicity, and county of origin. The
following report is divided into four
sections that examine the changes to
Florida's population between 1990 and
2000, Florida's housing stock, the
affordability of the housing stock, and
price trends and forecasts for Florida's
housing stock.
Over the past decade Florida has
experienced widespread population
growth. Chapter 2 examines this growth
in detail providing statistics at both the
county and census tract levels. In
addition to this growth, many of Florida's
communities have also experienced
income growth from 1990 to 2000 above
the rate of inflation that should afford
residents an improved standard of living.
These statistics, as well as others with
regard to the relationship between
Floridian's location choices for
employment and residence, are detailed
in Chapter 2.
Property appraiser data files are used
to examine Florida's housing stock in
Chapter 3. First the housing stock is
separated into three broad categories:
single-family housing, condominiums,
and multi-family housing, which are
further separated into complexes with
two to nine units and complexes with


ten or more units. This separation
highlights the difference between the
rural, urban, and coastal counties.
Single-family housing units dominate,
but condominiums are an important
source of housing in some coastal
counties. Other broad trends are
discussed in this section including the
total number of units, the median age
of units, and the median sales price of
units in each county. The coastal and
large urban counties tend to have the
largest number of units and the highest
median sales prices when compared to
the rest of the state.
The issue of housing affordability is
examined in Chapter 4. The most
affordable housing is generally located
in rural counties in the interior and
northern part of the state. In general, the
least affordable counties are either coastal
counties or located in major
metropolitan areas. Besides examining
the individual counties, Chapter 4
examines affordability at the state level
and finds that after years of increasing
affordability, housing became less
affordable in Florida over the last year.
This decline in affordability is likely due
to the fact that housing prices have
continued to appreciate rapidly in the
state while personal income has
experienced little growth over the last
two years.
The movement in house prices and
the rate of appreciation in housing is
discussed in Chapter 5. Florida is
currently experiencing the highest five-
year real rate of increase in housing prices
that it has ever seen. House prices have
increased by almost 7.0 percent per year
over and above the general rate of
inflation the last three years. Housing
prices are predicted to continue rising
with the southern portion of the state
and the six largest metropolitan areas
experiencing higher than average
increases; lower than average price 3







'^The I1

U-ae o Foria'

Hous^Win


*2004


increases are forecast in the northwest
part of the state.
This report first discusses changes to
Florida's population that occurred
between 1990 and 2000. Second, it
details characteristics of the housing stock
in the state. Third, it discusses issues in
the affordability of housing in the state.
Finally, it discusses the movement in
house prices and the rate of appreciation
in housing. The expectation is that the
information included in this study will
help readers to understand the diversity,
the needs, the public policy concerns, and
the opportunities of Florida's many
housing markets.


2. Florida Population

Changes Between
1990-2000

Mary Lois White, Ph.D., Department
of Economics and Business, Albright
College
Douglas White, Florida Housing Data
Clearinghouse, Shimberg Center,
University of Florida

2.1 Introduction

Florida is well known for its diverse
population. In the discussion that
follows, changes in Florida's population
demographics will be examined at the
aggregate state level and in more detail
at the county and census tract levels'.
The smaller census tract units will be
valuable in determining the changes that
are occurring within Florida's counties,
pinpointing where Florida's growth is
occurring, and identifying the sources of
that growth. This section will examine
whether Florida's population growth is
widespread throughout the state or if it
is occurring in isolated pockets. It will
also examine whether the population
growth is due to increases in the native


Floridian population, increases in the
number of citizens migrating from other
states, or increases in the foreign born
population. Finally, it will explore
whether local population gains within
Florida are due to losses of population
from other areas within the state.

2.2 Statewide Population
Changes

Between 1990-2000, the state of
Florida's population grew approximately
24%, from 12,937,926 to 15,982,378.
Table 2.1 shows that although many
often associate Florida with its elderly
population, those individuals aged 65
and older comprise only 18% of the total
population, a decline from 1990 when
they accounted for 19% of the
population. This is due to the fact that
they had a slower rate of growth than
most of the other age categories. The
youngest age group, for those under 18,
showed some of the highest growth rates,
27% for both males and females.
Florida is also commonly associated
with its foreign born population. In fact,
much of its growth was due to increases in
this population. As Table 2.2 illustrates,
of the 3,044,452 new Florida residents,
33% were foreign born and 20% migrated
from another U.S. state. In 1990, only
13% of Florida's residents were foreign
born, by the year 2000 this had increased
to 17%. In contrast, almost half of Florida's
residents, 48%, were citizens born in
another U.S. state. However, this is down
from 1990 when 55% of the population
reported being born in another U.S. state.
The change was not due to fewer residents
having been born in another U. S. state as
there were almost 600,000 additional out-
of-state persons reported in 2000. Instead,
this change in composition is due to the
fact that the foreign born population grew
at a higher rate than the out of state
population.


When comparing Census Tracts between decennial Censuses, extreme care must be taken to make sure that the
tracts are geographically consistent. Consistency has been accomplished by using GeoLytics' cd "1990 Long Form
in 2000 Boundaries". For detailed information see GeoLytics' website, i 11 .* I i.. .








Table2. Age and Gender


Male: Total
Under 18
18-21
22-34
35-54
55-64
65+
Female: Total
Under 18
18-21
22-34
35-54
55-64
65+


1990
Population
6,255,065
1,468,443
342,495
1,330,240
1,523,592
583,275
1,007,020
6,682,848
1,396,057
330,492
1,316,836
1,592,565
685,275
1,361,623


Table 2.2 Florida' Mig n P


1990 Population


2000 Population


% of Total Increase


Total % Foreign % Other Total % Foreign % Other Total Foreign Out of


Born U.S. State


12,937,926 13%


Born U.S. State Increase Born


55% 15,982,378 17%


48% 3,044,452 33%


2.3 County Level Population
Growth

Florida's growth was widespread
throughout the state. Table 2.3 details
the population growth experienced by
each of Florida's 67 counties between
1990-2000. Many of the counties that
experienced the highest rates of growth
are in either North Central Florida or the
geographic region known as the
Panhandle. The counties with the largest
percentage increases were Flagler, Sumter,
Collier, Wakulla, and Osceola Counties,
with increases of 74%, 69%, 65%, 61%,
and 60%, respectively. However, all of


these counties experienced actual
population increases of less than 100,000
while during the same time period,
Miami-Dade and Broward experienced
population increases of 316,268 and
367,530, respectively. Although Broward
is growing faster than Miami-Dade,
Miami-Dade is still the largest county in
Florida with a population of 2,253,362.
In comparison, Florida's smallest county
is Liberty with 7,021 residents in 2000.


Percent of
Population
48%
11%
3%
10%
12%
5%
8%
52%
11%
3%
10%
12%
5%
11%


2000
Population
7,787,742
1,863,922
400,473
1,316,358
2,263,852
728,946
1,214,191
8,194,636
1,770,650
379,313
1,290,685
2,336,902
825,140
1,591,946


Percent of
Population
49%
12%
3%
8%
14%
5%
8%
51%
11%
2%
8%
15%
5%
10%


Growth
25%
27%
17%
-1%
49%
25%
21%
23%
27%
15%
-2%
47%
20%
17%


County


State


State

20%







The State of Florida's Housing, 2004


Table 2.3 County Population Growth 1


County
Alachua
Baker
Bay
Bradford
Brevard
Broward
Calhoun
Charlotte
Citrus
Clay
Collier
Columbia
DeSoto
Dixie
Duval
Escambia
Flagler
Franklin
Gadsden
Gilchrist
Glades
Gulf
Hamilton
Hardee
Hendry
Hernando
Highlands
Hillsborough
Holmes
Indian River
Jackson
Jefferson
Lafayette
Lake


1990
181,596
18,486
126,994
22,515
398,978
1,255,488
11,011
110,975
93,515
105,986
152,099
42,613
23,865
10,585
672,971
262,499
28,701
8,967
41,105
9,667
7,627
11,504
10,930
19,499
25,773
101,115
68,432
834,054
15,778
90,208
41,375
11,296
5,578
152,104


2000
217,955
22,259
148,217
26,088
476,230
1,623,018
13,017
141,627
118,085
140,814
251,377
56,513
32,209
13,827
778,879
294,410
49,832
11,057
45,087
14,437
10,576
13,332
13,327
26,938
36,210
130,802
87,366
998,948
18,564
112,947
46,755
12,902
7,022
210,528


Table 2.4 describes the sources of these
counties' population gains. For example,
Miami-Dade had a total increase in its
population of 316,268. Of this increase,
86% was due to increases in the number
of foreign born residents. This indicates
that Miami-Dade had an increase of
273,196 foreign-born residents, but
Broward was close behind with 212,113.
In comparison, Monroe's total
population increased by only 1,565, of
which the increase in the foreign born
population accounted for 246% of that
change. Therefore the foreign born
6 population actually increased by a total


of 3,850. However, the final column
indicates that the change in Monroe's
population born out of state decreasedby
an amount equal to 164% of Monroe's
total population change, and thus, the
number of residents that were born in
another U.S. state decreased by 2,5602.
This large decrease offset the increase in
foreign-born residents and is the reason
why Monroe's population did not
experience more growth. The only
county to actually experience a decrease
in the size of its foreign-born population
was Jackson County.
In addition to Monroe, the following


Growth
20%
20%
17%
16%
19%
29%
18%
28%
26%
33%
65%
33%
35%
31%
16%
12%
74%
23%
10%
49%
39%
16%
22%
38%
40%
29%
28%
20%
18%
25%
13%
14%
26%
38%


Increase
36,359
3,773
21,223
3,573
77,252
367,530
2,006
30,652
24,570
34,828
99,278
13,900
8,344
3,242
105,908
31,911
21,131
2,090
3,982
4,770
2,949
1,828
2,397
7,439
10,437
29,687
18,934
164,894
2,786
22,739
5,380
1,606
1,444
58,424













Table 2.3g Co unty Populatio Gro h 1 0 (


County
Lee
Leon
Levy
Liberty
Madison
Manatee
Marion
Martin
Miami-Dade
Monroe
Nassau
Okaloosa
Okeechobee
Orange
Osceola
Palm Beach
Pasco
Pinellas
Polk
Putnam
St. Johns
St. Lucie
Santa Rosa
Sarasota
Seminole
Sumter
Suwannee
Taylor
Union
Volusia
Wakulla
Walton
Washington


1990
335,113
192,493
25,923
5,569
16,544
211,707
194,833
100,900
1,937,094
78,024
43,941
143,776
29,591
677,491
107,728
863,518
281,131
851,659
405,382
65,070
83,829
150,171
81,907
277,776
287,529
31,577
26,780
17,136
10,252
370,712
14,202
27,760
16,919


2000
440,888
239,452
34,450
7,021
18,733
264,002
258,916
126,731
2,253,362
79,589
57,663
170,498
35,910
896,344
172,493
1,131,184
344,765
921,482
483,924
70,423
123,135
192,695
117,743
325,957
365,196
53,345
34,844
19,256
13,442
443,343
22,863
40,601
20,973


State Total 12,937,926 15,982,378


counties experienced decreases in the
number of residents born in another U.S.
state: Broward, Gadsden, Liberty,
Miami-Dade, Pinellas, and Putnam. The
counties that gained the most from state-
to-state migration are: Calhoun,
Charlotte, Citrus, Flagler, Gulf,
Hernando, Indian River, St. Johns, Santa
Rosa, Sumter, and Walton. All of these
counties can attribute 50% or more of
their population increase to new residents


Growth
32%
24%
33%
26%
13%
25%
33%
26%
16%
2%
31%
19%
21%
32%
60%
31%
23%
8%
19%
8%
47%
28%
44%
17%
27%
69%
30%
12%
31%
20%
61%
46%
24%
24%


Increase
105,775
46,959
8,527
1,452
2,189
52,295
64,083
25,831
316,268
1,565
13,722
26,722
6,319
218,853
64,765
267,666
63,634
69,823
78,542
5,353
39,306
42,524
35,836
48,181
77,667
21,768
8,064
2,120
3,190
72,631
8,661
12,841
4,054
3,044,452


from other states. However, in absolute
terms, Palm Beach County had the
largest increase in residents born in
another U.S. state with 73,103.
In total, Broward had the largest
overall increase in new residents with
367,530 additional persons compared to
1990. Overall, the group with the
highest growth rate during the decade
was the population born within the state.


The table can be used to determine the change in the foreign born population and the change in the population
born in another U.S. state in the following manner. To determine the total foreign-born increase multiply the
total population increase by the "Foreign Born Percent of Total Increase." E.g., for Monroe County, (total
.. ... 'I ..... born%)=(1,565*246%)=3,850.







The State of Florida's Housing, 2004


1990 Population 2000 Population % of Total Increase

County Total % Foreign % Other Total % Foreign % Other Total Foreign Out of
Born U.S. State Born U.S. State Increase Born State

Alachua 181,596 6% 44% 217,955 7% 43% 36,359 14% 33%
Baker 18,486 1% 27% 22,259 1% 29% 3,773 3% 35%
Bay 126,994 3% 55% 148,217 4% 53% 21,223 5% 36%
Bradford 22,515 1% 33% 26,088 2% 30% 3,573 7% 12%
Brevard 398,978 5% 68% 476,230 7% 63% 77,252 13% 38%
Broward 1,255,488 16% 59% 1,623,018 25% 44% 367,530 58% -6%
Calhoun 11,011 1% 25% 13,017 2% 32% 2,006 10% 68%
Charlotte 110,975 6% 79% 141,627 8% 75% 30,652 14% 58%
Citrus 93,515 5% 71% 118,085 5% 69% 24,570 5% 59%
Clay 105,986 3% 58% 140,814 5% 53% 34,828 9% 38%
Collier 152,099 10% 69% 251,377 18% 61% 99,278 30% 48%
Columbia 42,613 2% 38% 56,513 2% 39% 13,900 4% 42%
DeSoto 23,865 6% 47% 32,209 19% 39% 8,344 57% 15%
Dixie 10,585 1% 38% 13,827 2% 38% 3,242 6% 36%
Duval 672,971 3% 49% 778,879 6% 44% 105,908 21% 13%
Escambia 262,499 3% 53% 294,410 4% 51% 31,911 12% 32%
Flagler 28,701 8% 70% 49,832 10% 70% 21,131 12% 69%
Franklin 8,967 2% 36% 11,057 2% 37% 2,090 2% 43%
Gadsden 41,105 1% 26% 45,087 4% 23% 3,982 34% -1%
Gilchrist 9,667 1% 38% 14,437 2% 38% 4,770 3% 37%
Glades 7,627 5% 46% 10,576 8% 42% 2,949 17% 29%
Gulf 11,504 1% 32% 13,332 2% 35% 1,828 7% 56%
Hamilton 10,930 2% 34% 13,327 2% 35% 2,397 5% 43%
Hardee 19,499 6% 38% 26,938 17% 31% 7,439 47% 11%
Hendry 25,773 15% 37% 36,210 24% 30% 10,437 47% 14%
Hernando 101,115 6% 74% 130,802 5% 70% 29,687 5% 56%
Highlands 68,432 5% 63% 87,366 9% 56% 18,934 25% 31%
Hillsborough 834,054 8% 50% 998,948 12% 45% 164,894 31% 16%
Holmes 15,778 1% 45% 18,564 2% 45% 2,786 3% 44%
Indian River 90,208 6% 66% 112,947 8% 63% 22,739 16% 50%
Jackson 41,375 2% 35% 46,755 2% 34% 5,380 -4% 32%
Jefferson 11,296 1% 33% 12,902 1% 33% 1,606 3% 29%
Lafayette 5,578 4% 21% 7,022 7% 25% 1,444 17% 39%
Lake 152,104 3% 64% 210,528 5% 60% 58,424 9% 49%













Table2.4riioFosi.dasg Popuatio (con


1990 Population


2000 Population


% of Total Increase


Total % Foreign % Other Total % Foreign % Other Total


Born U.S. State


Born U.S. State Increase


Foreign Out of
Born State


Lee
Leon
Levy
Liberty
Madison
Manatee
Marion
Martin
Miami-Dade
Monroe
Nassau
Okaloosa
Okeechobee
Orange
Osceola
Palm Beach
Pasco
Pinellas
Polk
Putnam
St. Johns
St. Lucie
Santa Rosa
Sarasota
Seminole
Sumter
Suwannee
Taylor
Union
Volusia
Wakulla
Walton
Washington
State


335,113
192,493
25,923
5,569
16,544
211,707
194,833
100,900
1,937,094
78,024
43,941
143,776
29,591
677,491
107,728
863,518
281,131
851,659
405,382
65,070
83,829
150,171
81,907
277,776
287,529
31,577
26,780
17,136
10,252
370,712
14,202
27,760
16,919


12,937,926 13%


5%
4%
2%
1%
1%
5%
4%
7%
45%
10%
2%
4%
6%
8%
7%
12%
6%
7%
4%
2%
4%
6%
2%
6%
6%
2%
2%
1%
2%
6%
1%
2%
2%


72% 440,888
44% 239,452
45% 34,450
22% 7,021
30% 18,733
68% 264,002
60% 258,916
72% 126,731
25% 2,253,362
61% 79,589
46% 57,663
65% 170,498
50% 35,910
58% 896,344
64% 172,493
63% 1,131,184
73% 344,765
70% 921,482
54% 483,924
46% 70,423
58% 123,135
63% 192,695
54% 117,743
76% 325,957
63% 365,196
50% 53,345
35% 34,844
29% 19,256
27% 13,442
66% 443,343
36% 22,863
51% 40,601
36% 20,973
55% 15,982,378


9%
5%
3%
2%
2%
8%
5%
8%
51%
15%
3%
5%
12%
14%
14%
17%
7%
10%
7%
3%
5%
10%
3%
9%
9%
6%
5%
2%
2%
6%
1%
3%
2%


66%
41%
45%
15%
29%
62%
58%
67%
16%
57%
45%
62%
43%
46%
50%
55%
66%
62%
48%
42%
58%
57%
55%
70%
56%
57%
35%
28%
30%
62%
36%
53%
39%


105,775
46,959
8,527
1,452
2,189
52,295
64,083
25,831
316,268
1,565
13,722
26,722
6,319
218,853
64,765
267,666
63,634
69,823
78,542
5,353
39,306
42,524
35,836
48,181
77,667
21,768
8,064
2,120
3,190
72,631
8,661
12,841
4,054


48% 3,044,452 33%


County


22%
9%
3%
6%
13%
21%
10%
13%
86%
246%
6%
10%
36%
36%
25%
34%
12%
39%
24%
18%
8%
25%
5%
29%
20%
11%
15%
8%
1%
10%
2%
7%
3%


47%
27%
47%
-11%
20%
37%
52%
49%
-36%
-164%
43%
48%
7%
11%
27%
27%
37%
-30%
19%
-2%
59%
36%
56%
38%
28%
68%
36%
23%
39%
39%
37%
56%
49%
20%








'^The I1

U-ae o Foria'


Hous^Win


*2004


Although Table 2.4 indicates the high
rates of growth coming from out of state,
it does not indicate to what degree local
growth is from within state county-to-
county migration. Table 2.5 identifies
the percentage of each county's residents,
aged 5 years and older, that lived in the
United States in 1995 and lived in the
same county in 2000. Of those that did
not live in the same county, the table also
indicates what percentage of those
individuals migrated into the county
from another Florida county or from
another U.S. state. Eighty-two percent
of Miami-Dade's residents, 61% of Duval
County's residents, and 60% of
Hillsborough County's residents lived in
the same county five years ago. In
contrast, only 21% of Sumter County's
residents and 25% of the residents in
Glades County and Gilchrist County
that lived in these counties in 2000 lived
in those counties five years ago. The
counties that relied more heavily on
migration from out-of-state are Bay,
Charlotte, Collier, Lee, Okaloosa, and
Sarasota, with 72%, 71%, 73%, 75%,
77%, and 72% of their new residents
coming from other U. S. states.


Fourteen counties relied heavily on
within-state migrants rather than out-of-
state migrants. Following each county's
name is the percent of their new residents
that lived elsewhere within the state of
Florida in 1995: Baker (76%), Bradford
(78%), Dixie (82%), Gilchrist (80%),
Hamilton (72%), Jefferson (79%),
Lafayette (79%), Levy (70%), Liberty
(85%), Madison (74%), Taylor (71%),
Union (76%), Wakulla (76%), and
Washington (73%). It is possible that
these counties experienced much of their
growth in areas near their borders with
other major metropolitan areas. For
instance, Baker and Bradford are located
near Duval County, one of the largest in
the state. Madison and Wakulla
Counties are located near Leon County,
the location of the state capital and home
to two state universities. If this is true,
then these counties should also
experience growth in the number of
workers that work out-of-their county of
residence. Table 2.6 details the
percentage of each county's workers that
work within their county of residence.


NlmrtoD rAll ~ I meuhpntuI wsI" h Iep]EczIeuhIwu"IpIbi Ie I"r111


County



Alachua
Baker
Bay
Bradford
Brevard
Broward
Calhoun
Charlotte
Citrus
Clay
Collier
Columbia
DeSoto
Dixie
Duval
Escambia

10 Flagler


Lived in
Same
County

41%
41%
55%
36%
55%
58%
51%
37%
38%
33%
46%
44%
47%
34%
61%
52%
31%


Lived in
Different
County

59%
59%
45%
64%
45%
42%
49%
63%
62%
67%
54%
56%
53%
66%
39%
48%
69%


Lived in
Different
County, Same
State
67%
76%
28%
78%
31%
46%
78%
29%
38%
51%
27%
64%
52%
82%
35%
31%
33%


Lived in
Different
County,
Different State
33%
24%
72%
22%
69%
54%
22%
71%
62%
49%
73%
36%
48%
18%
65%
69%
67%









within t. S. (continued)


Lived in
Same
County


Franklin
Gadsden
Gilchrist
Glades
Gulf
Hamilton
Hardee
Hendry
Hernando
Highlands
Hillsborough
Holmes
Indian River
Jackson
Jefferson
Lafayette
Lake
Lee
Leon
Levy
Liberty
Madison
Manatee
Marion
Martin
Miami-Dade
Monroe
Nassau
Okaloosa
Okeechobee
Orange
Osceola
Palm Beach
Pasco
Pinellas
Polk
Putnam
St. Johns
St. Lucie
Santa Rosa
Sarasota
Seminole
Sumter
Suwannee
Taylor
Union
Volusia
Wakulla
Walton
Washington


42%
54%
25%
25%
41%
40%
58%
56%
39%
47%
60%
43%
45%
47%
42%
33%
37%
50%
46%
35%
34%
52%
48%
47%
39%
82%
45%
43%
45%
55%
51%
42%
56%
41%
59%
59%
50%
35%
49%
37%
48%
40%
21%
41%
52%
30%
51%
32%
37%
36%


County


Lived in
Different
County


58%
46%
75%
75%
59%
60%
42%
44%
61%
53%
40%
57%
55%
53%
58%
67%
63%
50%
54%
65%
66%
48%
52%
53%
61%
18%
55%
57%
55%
45%
49%
58%
44%
59%
41%
41%
50%
65%
51%
63%
52%
60%
79%
59%
48%
70%
49%
68%
63%
64%


Lived in
Different
County, Same
State

61%
65%
80%
69%
64%
72%
66%
63%
41%
45%
38%
68%
42%
63%
79%
79%
52%
25%
64%
70%
85%
74%
38%
43%
50%
31%
35%
52%
23%
64%
46%
40%
36%
48%
31%
41%
61%
44%
48%
45%
28%
54%
44%
74%
71%
76%
39%
76%
50%
73%


Lived in
Different
County,
Different State

39%
35%
20%
31%
36%
28%
34%
37%
59%
55%
62%
32%
58%
37%
21%
21%
48%
75%
36%
30%
15%
26%
62%
57%
50%
69%
65%
48%
77%
36%
54%
60%
64%
52%
69%
59%
39%
56%
52%
55%
72%
46%
56%
26%
29%
24%
61%
24%
50%
3%








'^The I1

U-ae o Foria'


Hous^Win


*2004


There are ten counties where less than
50% of workers that work within the
state are employed in their county of
residence: Baker, Bradford, Clay,
Gilchrist, Glades, Jefferson, Liberty,
Santa Rosa, Union, and Wakulla. Seven
of these counties were identified
previously as having large percentages of
new residents migrating from other


counties within the state. An
examination of the growth in these
counties at the census tract level could
pinpoint whether the growth is occurring
in areas that would provide easy travel to
nearby counties for work. Population
growth at the census tract level will be
discussed in section 2.4 that follows.


ITa 2.- Re si t L o of W


% of
Worked in Worked Instate
State 1990 in County Workers


Alachua
Baker
Bay
Bradford
Brevard
Broward
Calhoun
Charlotte
Citrus
Clay
Collier
Columbia
DeSoto
Dixie
Duval
Escambia
Flagler
Franklin
Gadsden
Gilchrist
Glades
Gulf
Hamilton
Hardee
Hendry
Hernando
Highlands
Hillsborough
Holmes
Indian River
Jackson
Jefferson
Lafayette
Lake
Lee
Leon
12 Levy


83,367
7,080
56,542
8,252
181,665
583,405
3,726
37,066
29,176
50,827
66,339
17,095
8,417
3,167
328,410
112,094
10,194
3,222
15,461
3,473
2,726
4,414
3,419
7,576
10,479
30,459
21,830
407,949
4,599
34,207
15,237
4,486
2,070
56,649
140,713
99,936
9,381


78,839
3,995
55,055
4,866
173,649
471,595
2,293
29,913
24,400
20,090
63,539
12,861
6,763
2,280
314,868
106,621
7,379
2,776
9,230
1,270
1,279
3,567
2,684
5,499
7,361
21,761
20,054
373,741
2,993
30,126
12,548
2,376
1,400
42,777
129,226
96,178
5,172


95%
56%
97%
59%
96%
81%
62%
81%
84%
40%
96%
75%
80%
72%
96%
95%
72%
86%
60%
37%
47%
81%
79%
73%
70%
71%
92%
92%
65%
88%
82%
53%
68%
76%
92%
96%
55%


Worked in Worked in


State 2000

102,049
9,015
66,306
9,221
202,656
737,373
4,278
49,100
37,240
66,862
101,438
22,287
12,511
4,446
369,359
121,799
18,261
3,799
17,387
5,618
3,561
4,489
3,358
9,734
14,226
42,720
29,150
467,397
5,590
44,224
15,959
5,297
2,440
80,804
180,595
118,486
12,571


95,670
4,415
64,159
4,503
189,056
565,812
2,496
36,750
29,461
26,798
95,020
16,940
9,191
2,823
349,553
114,990
11,451
3,411
8,686
2,288
1,642
3,145
2,370
6,798
9,901
28,805
26,245
419,780
3,115
39,072
12,625
2,351
1,567
51,842
161,939
114,007
6,804


Instate


County Workers


94%
49%
97%
49%
93%
77%
58%
75%
79%
40%
94%
76%
73%
63%
95%
94%
63%
90%
50%
41%
46%
70%
71%
70%
70%
67%
90%
90%
56%
88%
79%
44%
64%
64%
90%
96%
54%







Table .6 Resden's octioofWo6k (continue


Liberty
Madison
Manatee
Marion
Martin
Miami-Dade
Monroe
Nassau
Okaloosa
Okeechobee
Orange
Osceola
Palm Beach
Pasco
Pinellas
Polk
Putnam
St. Johns
St. Lucie
Santa Rosa
Sarasota
Seminole
Sumter
Suwannee
Taylor
Union
Volusia
Wakulla
Walton
Washington


2.4 Census Tract Population
Growth

Census tract data allow us to
determine the location of the growth
within the counties. Table 2.1 showed
Flagler, Sumter, Collier, Wakulla, and
Osceola Counties, had population
growth rates of 74%, 69%, 65%, 61%,
and 60%, respectively. Table 2.7 below
shows the population growth within
these counties, as well as the other
counties that experienced growth rates
exceeding 40%, at the census tract level.
Not every census tract is shown for the


Worked in Worked
State 1990 in County

1,979 992
5,363 4,449
85,317 64,906
73,021 65,583
39,996 29,373
883,359 844,722
40,321 38,189
18,288 11,064
69,287 66,461
11,800 9,211
353,608 317,493
50,869 29,323
376,384 343,100
95,078 58,755
373,415 332,695
167,354 149,699
22,498 16,415
38,514 25,272
59,549 42,394
35,619 18,507
111,204 100,958
148,474 71,469
10,805 6,529
10,216 7,351
6,636 6,197
3,275 1,912
151,799 128,569
6,878 2,646
10,650 7,069
6,025 3,913


Worked in Worked in


%of
Instate
Workers

50%
83%
76%
90%
73%
96%
95%
60%
96%
78%
90%
58%
91%
62%
89%
89%
73%
66%
71%
52%
91%
48%
60%
72%
93%
58%
85%
38%
66%
65%


State 2000

2,338
5,970
109,921
95,207
49,447
893,606
41,162
24,943
80,369
13,565
436,120
77,069
470,367
130,407
415,036
201,015
25,505
58,055
75,574
49,674
131,035
185,862
14,551
13,283
7,117
3,925
184,017
10,286
16,094
7,418


County

1,135
4,724
82,098
83,034
34,150
823,481
39,721
14,472
74,920
10,345
376,709
38,416
421,811
71,367
360,285
170,637
17,322
35,438
49,979
23,087
113,691
96,293
7,960
8,818
6,311
1,835
149,832
4,043
11,078
4,167


counties. In most instances, only the
census tracts with the highest rates of
growth have been selected. It is
interesting to note that only six of the
ten counties listed in the table are located
along Florida's coastline.


% of
Instate
Workers

49%
79%
75%
87%
69%
92%
96%
58%
93%
76%
86%
50%
90%
55%
87%
85%
68%
61%
66%
46%
87%
52%
55%
66%
89%
47%
81%
39%
69%
56%








'^The I1

U-ae o Foria'


Hous^Win


*2004


Tract 1990 2000 Growth
Collier County-52 total census tracts
102.02 1,265 8,106 541%
112.01 592 3,384 472%
104.05 1,193 5,802 386%
104.12 1,483 6,874 364%
112.02 1,304 5,790 344%
105.04 1,776 6,464 264%
104.07 2,260 6,926 206%
104.13 1,054 3,159 200%
104.06 2,388 7,007 193%
105.03 2,467 7,230 193%
101.01 2,368 6,802 187%
102.04 3,262 7,383 126%
105.02 3,338 7,028 111%
108.02 3,129 6,541 109%
Flagler County-6 total census tracts
602.02 5,340 13,390 151%
602.01 5,290 10,503 99%
601.01 3,776 5,659 50%
Gilchrist County-2 total census tracts
9501 2,917 4,390 50%
9502 6,750 10,047 49%
Hendry County-6 total census tracts
5 1,413 3,986 182%
3 3,942 6,926 76%


4 7,399 11,072 50%
Osceola County-28 total census tracts
426 1,735 8,736 404%
421 1,350 4,935 266%
411 2,257 7,042 212%
408 2,826 8,780 211%


Collier County is one of the state's
most populous counties and is located
along the Gulf coast in southwest Florida.
The census tracts in Collier County are
located in the Northwest corner of the
county around Naples. Census tracts
101.01 and 102.04 are located on the
Gulf of Mexico but many other tracts are
also located near the Gulf. Tracts 112.01,
104.12 and 112.02 are the furthest from
Naples and from the Gulf but are still
near the other tracts clustered in this area.
Collier County experienced a 65%
increase in its population between 1990-
14


427
429
St. Johr
208
207.02
211
207.03
Santa R
108.02
108.05
108.06
103
108.01
108.07
107.03
Sumter
9908
9903
9906
Wakulla
102.02
102.01
Walton
9506
9505
9503
9504
9501
9502


1990 2000 Growth
2,696 6,761 151%
2,715 6,369 135%
5,008 10,727 114%
3,076 6,228 102%
ns County-19 total census tracts
6,592 17,961 172%
4,489 11,974 167%
4,618 7,603 65%
4,564 6,891 51%
!osa County-10 total census tracts
1,367 3,714 172%
3,673 9,740 165%
3,560 7,532 112%
3,365 6,611 96%
5,806 10,120 74%
5,138 8,903 73%
4,967 8,136 64%
County-10 total census tracts
236 10,361 4290%
2,669 7,033 164%
5,111 8,272 62%


County-4
1,813
3,008
County-6
4,995
5,350
5,204
2,149
5,748
4,314


Total census tract
4,253 135%
5,642 88%
total census tracts
9,737 95%
7,478 40%
7,150 37%
2,929 36%
7,743 35%
5,564 29%


2000 and Table 2.9 shows that much of
this growth occurred in these areas
around Naples.
Flagler County is another coastal
county but is located in northeast Florida
along the Atlantic Ocean. Flagler
County experienced a 74% increase in
its population with much of this growth
occurring within census tracts 602.02
and 602.01. Tract 602.02 is located near
Flagler's largest city of Palm Coast while
tract 602.01 is a much larger area
encompassing virtually the entire western
half of the county. Tract 601.01 is located


Table 2.7 Sele d P n G h R s at te C s T t L







in the northeastern area of the county,
and although it is not located on the
ocean, it is near the ocean.
In contrast, Gilchrist County is an
interior county located in central Florida
and is one of the smallest in the state with
fewer than 15,000 residents. Gilchrist
County is comprised of only two census
tracts, 9501 and 9502. Tract 9501
encompasses the northern and western
areas of the county while tract 9502
covers the southern and eastern areas.
Both tracts grew at near equal rates,
however tract 9502 has more than twice
as many residents as 9501, which could
be due to its proximity to Gainesville.
The entire county experienced an overall
increase in its population of 49%.
Hendry County is another interior
county but is located in south Florida.
Hendry County grew 40% between
1990-2000. Census tract 5 spreads east-
west across the county and is near Palm
Beach County on the eastern side and
Collier County on the southwest side.
Although this tract has far fewer residents
than the other tracts within the county,
it is growing at a faster rate. The tract
with the second highest growth rate was
tract 3 on the southwest side of the
county near Collier. Finally, tract 4 is
located in the northwest corner.
Osceoloa County is similar to Hendry
in that it is also an interior county but it
is further north and has a population
exceeding 100,000. Osceola County's
population increased 60% with much of
its growth occurring the northern areas
of the county in census tracts located near
other counties and the areas nearest to
Orlando. Census tracts 426, 421 and
419 are also near Kissimmee, one of the
largest cities in the area. Almost 60% of
Osceola's entire growth came from the
eight census tracts listed in the table.
St. Johns County is very similar to
Flagler County in its location along
Florida's Atlantic coastline but its
population is more than double that of
Flagler. St. Johns County is comprised
of 19 census tracts. The tracts with the


highest rates of growth were tracts 208
and 207.02. Tract 208 is located just
south of the Duval-St. Johns County
divider on the St. Johns River providing
easy access to the Jacksonville
metropolitan area. This is also true of
tracts 207.02 and 207.03, which are
located on the eastern side of the county
near the Atlantic Ocean.
Sumter County, an interior county
located in central Florida, experienced a
69% increase in its population between
1990 and 2000, with much of this
growth occurring within tract 9908 in
the extreme northeastern area of the
county near Marion County and the city
of Ocala. The tract with the second
largest increase was 9903 located in the
middle of the eastern area of the county
near Lake County and the city of
Leesburg. In contrast, tract 9906 is
located in the southwestern area of the
county near Hernando County. A
significant portion of Sumter Country's
growth, particularly in tract 9908, can
be attributed to "The Villages," a large
retirement community.
Three of the counties examined here are
located in the panhandle region of
northwest Florida along Florida's Gulf
Coast: Santa Rosa County, Wakulla
County, and Walton County. Within
Santa Rosa County, census tract 108.05
experienced the largest absolute increase in
its population. All but one of the census
tracts listed in Table 2.9 for Santa Rosa are
located on or near bodies of water along
the southern edge of the county such as
Easy Bay, Santa Rosa Sound, Bladewater
Bay, and Escambia Bay. The exception is
tract 103 located in the middle of the
western edge of the county near its border
with Escambia County.
In contrast, Wakulla County's growth
was more widespread throughout the
county, however tract 102.02 grew at the
highest rate. This tract covers a large area
that spreads north-south between Leon
County and the Gulf of Mexico. The
northern area of this tract is located not
far from the city of Tallahassee. Tract
15








'^The I1

U-ae o Foria'


Hous^Win


*2004


102.01 is to the west of tract 102.02. It
does not spread north to the county line
but does spread south to the coastline.
Finally, over one-third of Walton
County's growth occurred within tract
9506 located along the Gulf of Mexico
between Panama City and Destin. Tract
9505 is located just north of tract 9506
but is still not far from the coast. Over
50% of the county's growth occurred
within these two census tracts.
The population growth within these
tracts was diverse. Table 2.8 shows several
census tracts relied almost exclusively on
the age 65+ population for growth.
Seventy-two percent of the population
growth in census tract 102.04 in Collier
County and 54% of the population growth
in tract 9908 in Sumter County came from
increases in this age group. When this age
group is combined with the near retirement
age group of 55-65, these percentages
increase to 96% and 89%, respectively.
There are four additional census tracts in
Collier County where the 55+ population
accounted for over 50% of the population
growth in the County. This is also true for
census tract 601.01 in Flagler County
where these age groups account for 52%
of the entire population increase between


1990-2000.
On the other end of the age spectrum
are Hendry County and sections of Osceola
County and Collier County. Hendry is a
relatively young county. Five of its six
census tracts experienced over 30% of their
growth in the population under the age of
22. In fact, half of the census tracts
experienced over 40% of their growth in
this age group. None of the census tracts
could credit the 55+ population with more
than 25% of their growth.
In the middle of the age spectrum is
the working age population, primarily
those age 35-54. Census tracts 9502 in
Walton County, 9903 in Sumter County,
and 108.06 in Santa Rosa County
experienced 58%, 53%, and 50% of their
population increase from the working age
35-54 population group, respectively. In
fact, in Walton County, this age group
had the largest growth rate in every
census tract within the county. This
pattern was also true for every census
tract in Gilchrist County and Wakulla
County, and for the selected high growth
census tracts in St. Johns County and
Santa Rosa County. In Sumter's other
high growth census tract, 9906, this is
also true.


Table.s-3 e Population Incree Age *G


Census Population
Trac Increase
< 18
i ''1 i 1 -1 -1J 1
1 *i ..i.J 1


liii II


li~ii i~i,
lii-) 1

1ii 1L




l II.-. II
11 *u' i1
11 ~ ~
I .1111 ii
I .11 1 i


% of Total Population Increase


18-21


22-34


35-54 55-65


*11


-II~1.1.

* -Il
.* 1-


-1 4 '
'1.-..


County


Collier
Collier
Collier
Collier
Collier
Collier
Collier
Collier
Collier
Collier
Collier
Collier
Collier
Collier
Flagler
Flagler










County Census Population % of Total Population Increase
Tracl Increase
< 18 18-21 22-34 35-54 55-65 65.
Flagler 1:.,'1:1 .-. 1 :: 1 : :
Gilchrist '. 1 :1 1 .:
Gilchrist : 1 : : : : :
Hendry 2 :i 1: : .:: 1.-. :
Hendry 4 1 11
Hendry .. : 1 : 1 :
Osceola J:,.-. : JK : 1 .-. : : 1 :
Osceola 1 1 4 .-. :: : .: .::
Osceola 41 : 1: : 1 :
Osceola 41 :.' : : : : .
Osceola .-. :. .-. : : : : : : :
Osceola i: : ': : 1 :
Osceola 4 1 1 :: *1 .::
Osceola J4 1. .. :. : :1
St. Johns 11:. ,: 4.-. : 1:: :: 1 1
St. Johns i 11: 1: 1 :: :
St. Johnsi:.- 11 i:J :. 1:: j : i
St. Johns 11 i.-. :. :: : 1 : : :: 1 :
Santa Rosa 1 : Ji:. J1: 1:: J .-. : :
Santa Rosa 111: : : : 1: JJ: 1 1
Santa Rosa 1 1.-. : :1
Santa Rosa 1 : : : : 1 : : .-. : i.
Santa Rosa i :. ... 1
Santa Rosa 11.-ii i .. : :
Santa Rosa .. : K 1 1 47 1: 1
Sum ter i i. 1 1 : : :
Sumter 11 1 1
Sum ter I.. 1 1 : : : :
W akulla I 1 : : 1 : :
W akulla 1 :i: : : 1 :1'
W alton i.: 1 1' 1 :1 1 1 :
Walton u 1 1 : : :
W alton 1 *:i. I: : ':: J : : :
Walton 1 1 : :1 :
W alton : .. : 1 :: 1 :.
W alton i 1 : 1 :.-. 1.-.











17









'^The I1


U-ae o Foria'


Hous^Win


*2004


These tables have provided a wealth
of information about the changes that
have occurred in Florida over the past
decade, but they have given no indication
of when these changes have occurred. In
other words, did these changes occur
steadily over time or have there been
recent increases? Table 2.9 below
indicates the number of residents in each
census tract that lived in the United States
in 1995. It also identifies, for those
residents, what percent lived within the
same county and, of those that moved
into the county over the past five years,
what percent moved from another state.


Within the 52 census tracts, only
seven had at least half of their population
residing within the county in 1995.
Thus, not only has growth occurred in
these areas, it has occurred recently. For
those residents that lived within the
United States in 1995 that moved to a
new Florida county, in most instances
they moved from another state and did
not simply migrate from another Florida
county. Thirty-three of the fifty-two
census tracts experienced over 50% of
their population increase from residents
moving from other states.


e 9 L o f R c in 1


Census Lived in
Tract US in
1995


Lived in
Same
Counly


Lived in Dillerenl Counly


In
Different
Slale


liii1 ii K .


1J 1
, ..-..-. 1
4 **'.1 1

-I. 1
11


1 I". ;. I



1 1 ,:1 11 ,1
11l 1 1
11 *' 11''




1:.1 : 1 I i


111.-. 1.
.1 1 1 51 *1..I
L-1 1:.*. 4


4 1 l itt1
K 1 1 .-.


11 I:, "
411-. i...* .
41 l _.


1 L;11:








1 111


.:.':II I


* -1,1 I
J* 1



411



J 1 '.'
* -1 )


1 141
1 1 J1
1 41''
1 *.1


: 14.

':I '
*I1


iiI' I II'I


*I 1


1,11'


I:.lII
'III I


* 1 i. 1i


.71 1
:. 1 .-. 1
'* '* 1 17 7


*1 5 L ._ .1


1 71_.- 1 1 'ii






- : J 7 ,':,,'
4K' .1111~


Counly


% o
Population
Living in
Same
Counly
as 1995


% o
Migrants
Living in
Dinerenl
Slale in
1995


Collier
Collier
Collier
Collier
Collier
Collier
Collier
Collier
Collier
Collier
Collier
Collier
Collier
Collier
Flagler
Flagler
Flagler
Gilchrist
Gilchrist
Hendry
Hendry
Hendry
Osceola
Osceola
Osceola
Osceola


4 1
I'I : -1





4 ,. *I





L1
.-. : : .1
2 5 : : 1 'i,


I:.


1':..-.
~11,1



1 I.4KI








Tableg 2.9 Location *f Residencei n S 1 n


Counly


Census Lived in Lived in Lived in Dillerenl Counly


Osceola

Osceola

Osceola

Osceola

St. Johns

St. Johns

St. Johns

St. Johns

Santa Rosa

Santa Rosa

Santa Rosa

Santa Rosa

Santa Rosa

Santa Rosa

Santa Rosa

Sumter

Sumter

Summer

Wakulla

Wakulla

Walton

Walton

Walton

Walton

Walton
Walton


Tract US in Same
1995 Counly


41 "





I -'
I-




*11

1 '


1ii.-. ii1
1 II.-. II'

1 ii.-. I1:




S, .:_. .
'-I'-II I
















'-I I II-


*~ .-. .11






I .I .11.
















KI 1.


* .-.41

4 JI *I


* 1.11
1 1 T''


1 1. 1 I


10)5
1 .-.'..


* ii .1


1 I- 1. i
1 '*1


1 JJ441






1 4*1






1 -1 -
J2j
4 4.-.

1 1 ''


1 .51 I


1 .-.
1 ._..


These findings suggest some
important implications for the future.
Those areas that have relied most heavily
on increases in the retirement age
population for population growth could
be susceptible to decreases in their rate
of growth, or even experience negative
growth, if these areas are heavily reliant
on non-Floridian population migration.
If more attractive options become
available either within the state or in
other states, these individuals may not
continue to migrate into these areas in


In
Different
Slale


*1 *1



*1 4.'.




;1 1


1 li.

1 .1 _

1 1 .-.













1 .IIJ








1 .


KI. 5.' 1 4 :.

1 _. 1 1 _. .
1 1; J 1 '; J

1 i .:

1 T1 1. '1
1 ii. J 1 1 '

4 ': 1 41 1





1 ii'i*

S1 1 .1

1 1i:. 1.' .
1 14 1 1 '. '


1 ..-. 1 1T':




1 1. 1 ..7

1 In' *'


1 i'. 41.-.

1 1K.


1 144 .4K
1 .


% of % of


Population
Living in
Same
Counly
as 1995


Migrants
Living in
Dinferenl
Slale in
1995


4.-. K







I .1 I L I I










1.-. I.4

1* Ir


the future. On the other hand, as the
populations in these areas grow, they may
become even more desirable locations as
retirees seek communities with many
amenities. However, the retiree
population will not contribute to the
natural population growth in the future
the way that those areas with large growth
in their youth and working age
populations will.








T h e

U-ae o Foria'


Hous^Win


*2004


Section 2.5 Changes in
Income

In addition to changes in the
population level, changes in income
levels will affect an individual's
willingness and ability to pay for housing.
Table 2.10 shows changes in the median
income level for households and families
at the county level3. These amounts for
1990 and 2000 are expressed in terms of
real 1999 Dollars. This means the 1990
values have been inflated to represent
their purchasing power in 1999, and the
2000 values have been deflated to
represent their purchasing power in
1999. This adjustment is required in
order to make comparisons between the
values since the amount of goods an
individual could buy with a dollar in
1990 is different from the amount that
could be purchased with a dollar in 2000.
The inflation index used was the
Consumer Price Index (CPI) published
by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and can
be found at http://www.bls.gov.
All but five of Florida's counties
experienced some positive increase in
their median family income level
between 1990-2000. These five counties
and the percent change in their median


income levels are: Brevard (0%), Hardee
(-1%), Hendry (-2%), Miami-Dade (-
4%), and St. Lucie (-1%). The counties
that experienced the largest increases in
the median family income were Dixie
(19%), Holmes (22%), Jefferson (20%)
and St. Johns (28%). It is interesting to
note that the counties listed in this
second group all had modest population
increases due to increases in their foreign
born populations and relied more
extensively on new residents born in
other U. S. states.
St. Johns County experienced the
largest percentage increase in its median
family income level and as a result, now
has the highest median income level in
the state. Its neighbor Duval County had
a modest 6% increase in its median
income. One reason for this could be
migration of high-earners from Duval to
St. Johns County. Although this
information is not obtainable, we can
determine what percentage of St. Johns'
residents lived in the county in 1995, and
of those that did not, what percentage
lived within the state or elsewhere. This
and other specific details regarding St.
Johns County can be found in section
2.6 that follows.


Table.10 Media Income (1999 Dol


Household Income


2000
$31,426
$40,035
$36,092
$33,140
$40,099
$41,691
$26,575
$36,379
$31,001
$48,854
$48,289
$30,881
$30,714
$26,082
$40,703


% Change
6%
15%
9%
0%
-2%
2%
6%
5%
8%
4%
6%
5%
9%
26%
6%


Family Income
1990 2000
$42,190 $46,587
$37,958 $43,503
$37,911 $42,729
$37,750 $39,123
$47,564 $47,571
$49,444 $50,531
$29,557 $32,848
$39,664 $42,653
$32,870 $36,711
$50,758 $53,814
$51,630 $54,816
$34,893 $35,927
$31,915 $34,726
$26,188 $31,157
$45,073 $47,689


Families consist of "A group of two or more people who reside together and who are related by birth, marriage, or
adoption." Households include "includes all the people who occupy a housing unit as their usual place of residence.
This definition does not necessitate any relationship between the individuals in the residence. These definitions
can be found in the Census glossary E I1.1II ...... .. .../www/cen2000.html.


County
Alachua
Baker
Bay
Bradford
Brevard
Broward
Calhoun
Charlotte
Citrus
Clay
Collier
Columbia
DeSoto
Dixie
Duval


1990
$29,671
$34,685
$33,164
$33,085
$41,024
$41,074
$25,010
$34,591
$28,597
$46,836
$45,682
$29,506
$28,163
$20,664
$38,309


% Change
10%
15%
13%
4%
0%
2%
11%
8%
12%
6%
6%
3%
9%
19%
6%







Table .10 Median Income (199 Dollars) (c


Household Income
I 2000 % Change


Escambia
Flagler
Franklin
Gadsden
Gilchrist
Glades
Gulf
Hamilton
Hardee
Hendry
Hernando
Highlands
Hillsborough
Holmes
Indian River
Jackson
Jefferson
Lafayette
Lake
Lee
Leon
Levy
Liberty
Madison
Manatee
Marion
Martin
Miami-Dade
Monroe
Nassau
Okaloosa
Okeechobee
Orange
Osceola
Palm Beach
Pasco
Pinellas
Polk
Putnam
St. Johns
St. Lucie
Santa Rosa
Sarasota
Seminole
Sumter
Suwannee
Taylor
Union
Volusia
Wakulla
Walton
Washington


$33,801 $35,234
$38,463 $40,214
$23,172 $26,756
$26,851 $31,248
$27,720 $30,328
$27,794 $30,774
$29,378 $30,276
$25,136 $25,638
$29,645 $30,183
$33,460 $33,592
$30,554 $32,572
$28,411 $30,160
$38,260 $40,663
$23,164 $27,923
$38,911 $39,635
$26,160 $29,744
$29,265 $32,998
$27,871 $30,651
$31,432 $36,903
$38,221 $40,319
$36,710 $37,517
$25,268 $26,959
$29,898 $28,840
$24,389 $26,533
$34,866 $38,673
$30,165 $31,944
$42,671 $43,083
$36,154 $35,966
$39,434 $42,283
$40,619 $46,022
$37,540 $41,474
$28,788 $30,456
$40,645 $41,311
$36,625 $38,214
$43,698 $45,062
$28,859 $32,969
$35,330 $37,111
$33,879 $36,036
$27,079 $28,180
$40,207 $50,099
$37,230 $36,363
$37,060 $41,881
$40,198 $41,957
$47,880 $49,326
$26,312 $32,073
$26,569 $29,963
$28,725 $30,032
$30,675 $34,563
$33,344 $35,219
$33,614 $37,149
$28,614 $32,407
$24,541 $27,922


Family Income


1990


4%
5%
15%
16%
9%
11%
3%
2%
2%
0%
7%
6%
6%
21%
2%
14%
13%
10%
17%
5%
2%
7%
-4%
9%
11%
6%
1%
-1%
7%
13%
10%
6%
2%
4%
3%
14%
5%
6%
4%
25%
-2%
13%
4%
3%
22%
13%
5%
13%
6%
11%
13%
14%


2000 %Change


$39,621
$42,228
$27,591
$32,367
$30,709
$31,137
$34,897
$29,543
$32,685
$35,785
$34,509
$32,736
$45,204
$28,111
$45,102
$32,432
$33,655
$32,255
$36,476
$43,410
$49,711
$30,556
$33,888
$29,894
$41,244
$35,052
$50,695
$41,802
$45,554
$46,675
$42,539
$31,564
$46,581
$41,658
$51,779
$34,173
$43,845
$38,916
$32,033
$46,038
$41,954
$41,694
$47,457
$54,725
$31,825
$31,485
$33,818
$36,706
$39,719
$37,364
$33,887
$29,862


$41,708
$45,502
$31,157
$36,238
$34,485
$34,223
$36,289
$30,677
$32,487
$34,902
$37,509
$35,647
$48,223
$34,286
$46,385
$36,404
$40,407
$35,020
$42,577
$46,430
$52,962
$30,899
$34,244
$31,753
$46,576
$37,473
$53,244
$40,260
$50,734
$52,477
$47,711
$35,163
$47,159
$42,061
$53,701
$39,568
$46,925
$41,442
$34,499
$59,153
$41,381
$46,929
$50,111
$56,895
$36,999
$34,032
$35,061
$37,516
$41,767
$42,222
$37,663
$33,057


County


5%
8%
13%
12%
12%
10%
4%
4%
-1%
-2%
9%
9%
7%
22%
3%
12%
20%
9%
17%
7%
7%
1%
1%
6%
13%
7%
5%
-4%
11%
12%
12%
11%
1%
1%
4%
16%
7%
6%
8%
28%
-1%
13%
6%
4%
16%
8%
4%
2%
5%
13%
11%
11%








'^The I1

U-ae o Foria'


Hous^Win


*2004


Section 2.6 Profile of
St. Johns County

St. Johns County is one of many
counties that experienced large
population growth along its border with
another county. This could be the result
of worker migration. The following
tables provide statistics for St. Johns
County to determine whether its growth


could be the result of such a
phenomenon. Table 2.11 below reveals
the census tracts that experienced the
highest rates of growth were 208, 207.02,
211, and 207.03. Census tracts 207.02
and 207.03 are located very near to the
county line between Duval and St. Johns
County and are also located near the
coastline.


Median Family Income
S 2000 G
f Jii l i:
$31,106
$33,958
$55,915
S $58,958
$73,802
$93,347
S $101,620
S $83,482
$46,944
$39,561
$33,576
$40,122
$47,893
S $47,369
$39,500
S $55,515
$57,969
S $61,598


;rowth


43%
77%
39%
71%
63%
56%
51%
70%
63%
54%
87%
74%
47%
43%
25%
51%
74%
80%


Table2.11 St. JohnsCounyCesusr


Census
Tract
202
203
204
205
206
207.01
207.02
207.03
208
209
210.01
210.02
211
212.01
212.02
213.01
213.02
214.01
214.02


1990


3,152
3,165
3,623
4,953
5,677
4,489
4,564
6,592
5,782
5,177
2,898
4,618
3,518
5,189
3,792
4,528
5,877
3,386


Population
2000


3,234
2,915
3,891
7,347
7,985
11,974
6,891
17,961
7,280
6,895
2,887
7,603
5,037
6,269
4,575
5,568
7,979
4,471


Growth


3%
-8%
7%
48%
41%
167%
51%
172%
26%
33%
0%
65%
43%
21%
21%
23%
36%
32%


199(


$21,813
$19,211
$40,185
$34,539
$45,314
$59,855
$67,457
$49,047
$28,852
$25,646
$18,003
$23,044
$32,50(
$33,087
$31,51E
$36,839
$33,41
$34,139








Table 2.12 below indicates the St.
Johns residents' location of work.
Between 1990-2000 the number of
residents within census tracts 204,
207.02, 208, and 211 who worked
outside of their county of residence


increased by 100% or more. However,
it should also be noted that tracts 207.02
and 208 had even larger growth in the
number of workers that work within the
county.


Table 2.1 *SSke Pouato Growt-Cnu Trc Lee I


Oul ol
Counly


In
Slale


Workers 1990

In
County


.11, 1 1..*i 1 iI.-.1


Census
Tracl

202
203
204

205
206
207.01

207.02'
207.03'
208'
209

210.01
210.02
211'
212.01

212.02
213.01
213.02
214.01

214.02


1 -2 1


1 7.'.
1 7'



1 '1






1.5.




1 '.:-1
1 ''I i.l
1 '.1''.
1 *'.1 ''


1 1 i',1


Oul ol
Counly


lii ,-


1 4.;


1
K-Il



1.-. -







-l1 -

Ji'iI7


* indicates areas of highest population growth


Even though many census tracts
within St. Johns County did experience
migration from other counties within the
state of Florida, this was not the primary
source of population increase for St.
Johns' census tracts that had the highest
rates of growth. This can be seen in Table
2.13 below. It is important to note,
however, that these data only reveal
whether the population migrated
between 1995-2000 and does not


account for whether the residents that
reported living in the same county in
1995 migrated to the county between
1990-1995. It would appear as though
St. Johns' growth is not necessarily caused
by losses from neighboring Duval
County.


Workers 2000
In In
Slale Counly


1 1- :


In Oul of


County
Growth


County
Growth


-., 1 *i.1
1 7 1 7 1
1 1 71- ',



1 1:'








1 i:. 1 1 7 1


7 1 -I1.-.
1 7 .L_ _' 1 :ii .

1 .' *1 .. 7

.! 1 l.:.


1 5.15


1 *r
1 :1. I
J 1 :1 1

-I ; ; 1
K. K_. 4.-.


-1 .:-

* J J.-.









S I' I


; *' -l .
1 7 1 1


1 I: l



Jl1

1 ii ii I


1 II 1*.*1 1 K.,








'^The I1

U-ae o Foria'


Hous^Win


*2004


Table2.13 Location of Residence in Trac


Tract Lived
In US
1995



ii j 1 i i1
-,1:1 1 J .-.
ii,4 1 7

'I 7-. 1 _.:I. '


.11. I





*1 .


4 1.11'


1 1 '1



S -'_-

' 1 'l 1


*lli~i* .11'


Same
County
1995


1 1 11:1.-.


1 .-. 1 I:.



1 1 7 7


1 1 .
711


Dillereni Counly 1995


Total Different
County.
Same
Slale


1 1LL






4''."





.L1



1 4.''
1 *.-


7 7 1 77


Dillereni
County.
Dillereni
Slale


% Lived % of
in Same Migrants
County hrom
within
State


Section 2.7 Conclusion

Florida's population growth is diverse.
It stems from increases in foreign-born
migration, state-to-state migration, as
well as growth in the native Floridian
population. Additionally, its population
growth is not driven solely by retirees,
but also stems from growth in its youth
population as well as its working age
population. Florida's counties have been
faced with diverse growth within their
boundaries as well with some census
tracts within counties experiencing large
growth in the elderly population while
other tracts are experiencing large
increases in younger age groups. The
needs of these residents are different.
Large growth in the school-age
population will force communities to
focus on access to schools while growth
in the elderly population will result in


focus on other community amenities. By
and large, Florida's residents are
experiencing real income increases that
will affect their ability to afford housing
and the type of housing they choose.
Florida's growth is continuing in its
coastal communities but is also occurring
in many rural areas located near urban
centers. Although many are aware of the
high growth in South Florida, it is
evident that all of Florida has benefited
over the past decade.


1 I I' II I
4L';1


* .-. .41
711
71 1 ':! 1 '






I ?1, 1 i _._.


JI:. - J''I







3. Florida's

Housing Supply

Douglas White, Florida Housing Data
Clearinghouse, Shimberg Center,
University of Florida
Marc T Smith, Ph.D., Shimberg
Center, University of Florida

Florida's housing stock includes single-
family units, multifamily units, and
manufactured units. Although all three
types of housing units are represented,
the housing inventory is dominated by
the single-family home. About 58
percent of the state's single family
housing stock is located in six major
metropolitan areas: Fort Lauderdale,
Jacksonville, Miami, Orlando, Tampa-St.
Petersburg, and West Palm Beach-Boca
Raton. The Fort Lauderdale and Miami
MSAs, because of their density, also have
the distinction of having the most
multifamily housing of any area in the
state. Although not a type of structure,
condominium housing is an important
housing category in some areas of the
state. Broward, Miami-Dade, and Palm
Beach Counties alone have 58 percent
of the state's condominiums. Significant
concentrations of condominiums are also
found in Collier, Lee, Pinellas, and
Sarasota Counties. Clearly,
condominiums tend to be a coastal
phenomenon.


3.1 Data Description

To understand and analyze Florida's
stock of housing, tax assessment records
from the 67 county property appraisers
are examined. From all 67 counties, the
Shimberg Center obtains data on the four
major categories of residentially coded
parcels. This results in a database that
contains information on residential


parcels of land and most residential
structures in Florida, including: parcel
identification; land use code (vacant
residential, single-family, condominium,
etc.); total assessed value; assessed land
value; relative year in which structure was
built; square footage of the structure;
parcel size; date and price of the two most
recent sales; ad valorem taxjurisdiction;
homestead exemption; and location of
the property by section, township, and
range. The database contains most but
not all residential structures, excluding
(1) residential structures located on land
that is not residentially coded, such as
residential structures located on land that
has an agriculture coding or residential
structures that have a commercial coding
(2) manufactured housing not classified
as real property (this problem is discussed
in more detail later in the report) and
(3) structures that are not one of the four
major residential land use categories
examined. The data, unless otherwise
noted, are for roll year 2003, the last
complete year for which data are
available.
Use of the individual county property
appraiser data allows us to reasonably
compare housing characteristics in the
counties with each other. However, there
are gaps and limitations in these
Department of Revenue (DOR) data
sets. Gaps occur because in some
counties, certain fields of data are not
included in the records or are missing for
specific property types. For example, in
many counties the year built information
or square footage is missing for
condominiums1 and/or multi-family
units.
The sales data also has some
limitations. In a few cases only one year
of sales data is reported. Limitations on
the data can occur for two reasons. First,
only the two most recent sales prices and
year of those sales are reported. Any time


In order to make the county comparisons as similar and accurate as possible, the Shimberg Center has adopted a
rule that 2/3 of the unit type observations must have valid year built entries or valid square footage entries to
report the number of units by year built, new construction, mean/median year built, the median size by year built,
and/or the mean/median size of the unit types.








'^The I1

U-ae o Foria'


Hous^Win


*2004


a parcel sells, the older of the two sales is
lost, and therefore when examining the
county data, there are two potential
explanations for the increasing frequency
of sales over time. The first is that sales
really have increased over time, and the
second is that this increased frequency is
just a statistical anomaly due to properties
selling multiple times, eliminating the
older records. In an attempt to overcome
this problem, we have introduced a major
change to this year's report. We have
merged sales data from the previous three
roll years (2000, 2001, and 2002) with
the current roll year. This combination
of data allows us to capture more sales
for each parcel and should increase the
accuracy of the sales price time series.
While this change makes the sales price
and number of sales time series more
accurate, the decreasing number of sales
is still partially a remnant of the ways the
sales are reported. As we add more roll
years to the dataset, this problem should
decrease in significance.
A second limitation in the data is that
definitions vary somewhat across
counties; an example of this is square
footage. Property appraisers calculate and
use more than one measurement of
square footage in their appraisal process.
Thus, this characteristic can vary across
counties and possibly over time within
the county. Another reason square
footage can vary is the presence of
multiple buildings on a parcel, which
show up in the value for square footage
field2.
Another problem that has to be
addressed when creating the database is
that the data must be cleaned. For
example, any sales prices that are
determined to be a "non-arms-length"
transaction (by the DOR transaction
code) are deleted from the sales price


calculations. Additionally, any
observations with obvious mispricing
(due to data entry or other error) or
which are not considered a sale for
purposes of the report are deleted. For
example, the older of two recent sale
prices for a newly constructed home is
usually the sale of the lot; a price not
comparable to the sale price after the
home has been constructed. Finally, data
entry problems exist that have required
the development of screening rules to
eliminate information that falls outside
reasonable boundaries.
Despite these problems, the property
appraiser data provides information on
Florida's housing stock that is not
otherwise available. For example,
decennial Census data, because of delays
due to its release and the fact that it is
only conducted once a decade, means
that variables such as median housing
prices may be dated and less than
accurate. The Census is also subject to
inaccuracies in evaluating housing unit
characteristics because it relies on the
evaluation by the occupants for estimates
of numerous variables such as property
value and age. Other sources, while
current and valuable, are subject to
limitations of geographic coverage or
amount of information available.3
The following section describes the
existing single-family housing stock in
Florida. Subsequent sections provide
detailed information on the
condominium market and the
multifamily housing market. Although
manufactured housing accounts for a
significant portion of residential housing
units in many rural counties, we are
unable to describe and discuss Florida's
manufactured housing stock because
comprehensive, accurate data are not
available from the property appraiser data


To make the county comparisons as similar as possible, only parcels with one building are used in the size calculations.
In the National Association of Realtors (NAR) Home Sales, the median sale price of existing single-family homes,
condos, and co-ops sold in each quarter are reported for the nine largest metropolitan areas in Florida. In addition,
the Florida Association of Realtors (FAR) produces the Florida Home Sales Report that contains information on
monthly sales volume and median sale prices for the 20 major metropolitan areas. While quite valuable, the NAR
and FAR reports do not contain information on characteristics other than sale price and volume, and in addition
are based only on MLS sales. Moreover, numerous counties are excluded.







at our disposal. Accurate data on
manufactured housing is difficult to
obtain for several reasons. First, a
manufactured home is classified as real
property if the owner owns both the
home and the lot. It is these homes that
are included in the property appraiser
files. Other manufactured housing, at
least 50%, is located on rented sites and
carries a tag from the Division of Motor
Vehicles.4 Further, even combining these
sources results in data that are not
consistent from year to year. In addition
to reporting problems, possible causes of
inconsistencies include units not counted
because of confusion about their status,
failure to renew a tag, units placed on
land and not reported to the appraiser,
or uncertainty about the location of the
unit (i.e. in a city or in the
unincorporated portion of a county).


3.2 Geography

The housing data are examined at the
county level and the metropolitan
statistical areas (MSAs) level. A MSA is
an area with a high degree of social and
economic integration, a population of
100,000 or more, and contains at least
one city of 50,000 or more. The MSA is
named after its central city or cities.
Florida has 21 MSAs that contain 35 of
its 67 counties.
The state's 21 metropolitan areas
(MSAs) are further divided into "major"
metropolitan areas (6 MSAs) and "other"
metropolitan areas (15 MSAs). The
major MSAs include Ft. Lauderdale,
Miami, Jacksonville, Orlando, West Palm
Beach-Boca Raton, and Tampa-St.
Petersburg-Clearwater. As figure 3.1
shows, a total of fifteen counties make
up the major MSAs. The 15 other MSAs


The decennial US Census counts all manufactured housing, and therefore reports a drastically different number of
total housing units for some of the rural counties than the corresponding county property appraiser. This difference
is almost one hundred percent due to the difference in reported manufactured housing.


Florida Major Metropolitan Areas
1 Miami
M Fort Lauderdale
M Jacksonville
M Orlando
I IWest Palm Beach-Boca Raton
I ITampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater


Figure 3.1 Florida's 6 Major Metropolitan Areas


ajS







'^The I1

U-ae o Foria'

Hous^Win


*2004


include twenty counties, which are
shown in figure 3.2.
A total of 35 of Florida's 67 counties
are therefore found in metropolitan areas,
with the remaining 32 being non-
metropolitan.5 These remaining 32
counties are further categorized, as shown
in figure 3.3, into four regional groups:
Northwest, Northeast, Central, and
South, according to categories used by
the University of Florida's Bureau of
Economic and Business Research.


Figure 3.2 Florida's Remaining 15 Metropolitan Areas


3.3 Single-Family Housing6

Summary data by county, with
aggregations to metropolitan and state
totals, are included in Table 3.1.
The single-family housing stock of
Florida increased by over 100,000 units
to total almost 4 million units in 2002
and the total assessed value of these units
increased by over $50 billion to $504.5
billion in assessed value in 2002. Almost
77.6% of these units are occupied by
their owner; the remaining units are
renter-occupied. The mean age of
housing units in the state decreased to
24 years, and the average size is 1,954
square feet. The number of single-family
sales in 2002 totaled 307,695, which is
equal to 7.72 percent of the total single-
family housing stock in this state.7 The
median price of a 2002 sale increased to
$143,600, but remained lower than both
the 2002 new median house price of
$187,600 and the 2002 existing house
price of $158,100 in the U.S.8
As shown in figure 3.4, Florida's
housing is geographically concentrated.
The six major MSAs contain slightly
more than 2.3 million single-family units
and these units comprise about 58
percent of the total housing stock in the
state. Almost 29 percent of the major


* a JdAW


Multiple-county MSAs are as follows: Daytona Beach MSA includes Flagler and Volusia Counties. Ft. Pierce
Port St. Lucie MSA includes Martin and St. Lucie Counties. Jacksonville MSA includes Clay, Duval, Nassau and
St. Johns Counties. Orlando MSA includes Lake, Orange, Osceola and Seminole Counties. Pensacola MSA
includes Escambia and Santa Rosa Counties. Sarasota-Bradenton MSA includes Manatee and Sarasota Counties.
Tallahassee MSA includes Gadsden and Leon Counties. Tampa-St. i ... Clearwater MSA includes Hernando,
Hillsborough, Pasco and Pinellas Counties.
The appendix has County specific data that is summarized in the following tables. New to this years report, the
appendix also contains jurisdiction specific data for each county.
The number of sales depends on what classes of transactions are regarded as qualified sales. For example, the total
quoted here includes only sales that were arms-length transactions.
The sources for these national prices are: new single family -U.S. Census Bureau, Survey of Construction/Housing
Sales Survey; existing single family -National Association of Realtors, Existing Home Sales Survey.







MSA total, comprising nearly 17 percent
of the state, is found in the Tampa-St.
Petersburg-Clearwater MSA (which we
will refer to as Tampa Bay). The Orlando
MSA has almost 20 percent of the major
MSA total, representing 11.4 percent of
the state's single-family stock, the Ft.
Lauderdale MSA about 9 percent of the
state total, and the Miami and
Jacksonville MSAs each representing 7.8
percent of the state total. Of single
county MSAs, Miami and Ft. Lauderdale
have the largest numbers of single-family
housing units in the state. Together, these
two counties contain over 16.7 percent
of the state's single-family units. Adding
Palm Beach County results in almost 22
percent of the state's single-family stock
being located in the these three southeast
Florida counties.


Figure 3.3 Florida's 4 Non-metropolitan Areas


Florida Noinietropolitai Areas
1 Northwest Nonnmetropolitan Area
Central Nonmetropolitan Area
S South Nonmetropolitan Area
Northeast Nonmetropolitan Area


a ...








The State of Florida's Housing, 2004


I Table 3.1 Single-Faml Husin St


Florida

Fort Lauderdale, FL MSA Broward County

Jacksonville, FL MSA Clay County
Duval County
Nassau County
St. Johns County
MSA Total

Miami, FL MSA Miami-Dade County

Orlando, FL MSA Lake County
Orange County
Osceola County
Seminole County
MSA Total

Tampa-St. Petersburg- Hernando County
Clearwater, FL MSA Hillsborough County
Pasco County
Pinellas County
MSA Total

West Palm Beach Palm Beach County
-Boca Raton, FL MSA

Major Metropolitian Area Total


Daytona Beach, FL MSA



Fort Myers-
Cape Coral, FL MSA

Fort Pierce-
Port St. Lucie, FL MSA



Fort Walton Beach, FL MSA

Gainesville, FL MSA

Lakeland-
Winter Haven, FL MSA

Melbourne-Titusville-
Palm Bay, FL MSA

Naples, FL MSA

Ocala, FL MSA

Panama City, FL MSA

Pensacola, FL MSA


Flagler County
Volusia County
MSA Total


Lee County


Martin County
St. Lucie County
MSA Total

Okaloosa County

Alachua County


Polk County


Brevard County

Collier County

Marion County

Bay County

Escambia County
Santa Rosa County
MSA Total


Total Units

3,986,553

356,764

40,614
215,026
14,719
39,787
310,146

310,711

65,827
226,900
55,178
107,128
455,033

47,517
265,712
111,556
241,379
666,164

203,191


2,302,009


23,543
136,123
159,666


137,053


40,715
64,964
105,679

54,044

48,952


128,399


152,819

61,860

75,152

46,328

86,924
39,022
125,946


Total
% of % Owner Assessed
State Occupied Value($mils)


100.00%

8.95%

1.02%
5.39%
0.37%
1.00%
7.78%

7.79%

1.65%
5.69%
1.38%
2.69%
11.41%

1.19%
6.67%
2.80%
6.05%
16.71%

5.10%


57.74%


0.59%
3.41%
4.01%


3.44%


1.02%
1.63%
2.65%

1.36%

1.23%


3.22%


3.83%

1.55%

1.89%

1.16%

2.18%
0.98%
3.16%


77.56%

80.89%

83.94%
80.23%
77.57%
79.63%
80.51%

80.58%

77.85%
77.29%
64.74%
83.04%
77.21%

78.98%
82.21%
78.90%
80.94%
80.97%

79.59%


75.30%
79.29%
78.71%


$504,533.4

$54,196.4

$4,163.9
$21,365.7
$2,070.7
$7,340.7
$34,940.9

$47,948.3

$6,771.3
$28,645.4
$5,812.3
$13,502.6
$54,731.6

$4,027.7
$28,497.4
$9,639.1
$27,461.4
$69,625.6

$43,257.3


$304,700.0


$2,765.3
$12,936.6
$15,701.9


71.21% $22,064.8


76.30%
74.98%
75.49%

71.37%

78.45%


$8,576.0
$5,799.8
$14,375.8

$5,730.3

$4,595.8


72.51% $10,167.7


80.34%

68.72%

76.98%

66.31%

74.86%
79.07%
76.17%


$14,856.8

$18,973.6

$5,950.5

$4,106.1

$6,203.3
$4,088.2
$10,291.6


% of
State

100.00%

10.74%

0.83%
4.23%
0.41%
1.45%
6.93%

9.50%

1.34%
5.68%
1.15%
2.68%
10.85%

0.80%
5.65%
1.91%
5.44%
13.80%

8.57%


60.39%


0.55%
2.56%
3.11%


4.37%


1.70%
1.15%
2.85%

1.14%

0.91%


2.02%


2.94%

3.76%

1.18%

0.81%

1.23%
0.81%
2.04%


(*) -Less than 25 Observations, ($) -Less than 2/3 of observations have valid year built entries
(#) -Less than 2/3 of observations have valid square footage entries














Total Just
Value
milsls)


% of Average Relative
State Age Age Index


$601,937.0 100.00%

$68,489.4 11.38%


$4,593.5
$25,650.5
$2,473.3
$8,790.2
$41,507.4


New Units
Average Constructed
Size in 2002


24 1.00 1,954

24 0.98 1,937


0.76%
4.26%
0.41%
1.46%
6.90%


2,063
1,806
2,068
2,318
1,918


Number of
% of Sales
State in 2002


% of
State


Median
2002
Sales Price


110,675 100.00% 307,695 100.00% $143,600

8,380 7.57% 35,624 11.58% $185,000


1,771
4,862
644
2,096
9,373


1.60%
4.39%
0.58%
1.89%
8.47%


3,556
15,349
939
3,749
23,593


1.16%
4.99%
0.31%
1.22%
7.67%


$136,350
$127,500
$175,500
$200,000
$138,600


$62,773.7 10.43%


$7,140.6
$32,345.1
$6,149.0
$15,481.9
$61,116.6

$4,492.1
$34,083.6
$10,900.3
$34,760.3
$84,236.2


1.19%
5.37%
1.02%
2.57%
10.15%

0.75%
5.66%
1.81%
5.77%
13.99%


$51,993.9 8.64%


$370,117.3 61.49%


33 1.34 1,889


1,556
1,963
1,615
2,157
1,907

2,291
1,893
1,776
1,706
1,833


26 1.06 2,261


1,953 1.76% 20,105


3,708
7,423
3,373
1,804
16,308

1,462
7,477
4,999
1,650
15,588


3.35%
6.71%
3.05%
1.63%
14.74%

1.32%
6.76%
4.52%
1.49%
14.08%


6,319
21,338
6,169
8,220
42,046

3,405
21,103
11,545
15,343
51,396


4,236 3.83% 14,621


6.53% $175,000


2.05%
6.93%
2.00%
2.67%
13.66%

1.11%
6.86%
3.75%
4.99%
16.70%


$132,000
$153,000
$130,000
$155,000
$145,000

$92,000
$139,000
$123,900
$131,000
$129,900


4.75% $197,000


55,838 50.45% 187,385 60.90%


0.49 2,152
1.05 2,308
0.97 2,286


1,917 1.73%
3,201 2.89%
5,118 4.62%


$25,817.0 4.29%


19 0.77 2,889


6,675 6.03% 14,246


4.63% $151,500


$10,160.4
$6,502.6
$16,663.0

$6,072.7


1.69%
1.08%
2.77%

1.01%


$5,227.2 0.87%


$11,243.1


$17,678.4


1.87%


$23,216.2 3.86%


$6,506.1


1.08%


$4,410.5 0.73%


$7,167.5
$4,392.5
$11,560.0


1.19%
0.73%
1.92%


0.80 1,924
0.81 1,558
0.80 1,702


22 0.90 1,959


24 0.97


1,906


29 1.18 2,306


23 0.93 1,632


15 0.62


19 0.80 1,553


24 0.97


1,808


1.21 1,790
0.72 2,043
1.06 1,868


1,392 1.26%
2,663 2.41%
4,055 3.66%

1,208 1.09%

1,007 0.91%


4,135 3.74%


3,852
5,608
9,460

4,072

3,343


4,481 4.05% 11,687


(#) 3,652 3.30%


4,194 3.79%

917 0.83%

1,465 1.32%
1,575 1.42%
3,040 2.75%


5,303

6,703

3,106

4,868
3,010
7,878


1.25%
1.82%
3.07%


$185,000
$112,000
$134,250


1.32% $121,900

1.09% $126,000


2.50% $104,500


3.80% $119,500

1.72% $250,000

2.18% $115,000

1.01% $118,000


1.58%
0.98%
2.56%


$104,350
$125,200
$113,000


$3,081.6
$15,083.1
$18,164.8


0.51%
2.51%
3.02%


2,230
1,261
3,491


0.72%
0.41%
1.13%


$120,000
$132,175
$123,500








The State of Florida's Housing, 2004


ITableB 3.1 Single-Famil Housig S (o ed


Punta Gorda, FL MSA

Sarasota-
Bradenton, FL MSA



Tallahassee, FL MSA



Vero Beach, FL MSA


Charlotte County


Manatee County
Sarasota County
MSA Total

Gadsden County
Leon County
MSA Total

Indian River County


Remaining Metropolitian Area Total


Northwest
Nonmetropolitan Area


Northeast
Nonmetropolitan Area














Central
Nonmetropolitan Area




South
Nonmetropolitan Area


Calhoun County
Franklin County
Gulf County
Holmes County
Jackson County
Jefferson County
Liberty County
Wakulla County
Walton County
Washington County
Nonmetro Total


Baker County
Bradford County
Columbia County
Dixie County
Gilchrist County
Hamilton County
Lafayette County
Levy County
Madison County
Suwannee County
Taylor County
Union County
Nonmetro Total


Citrus County
Putnam County
Sumter County
Nonmetro Total


DeSoto County
Glades County
Hardee County
Hendry County
Highlands County
Monroe County
Okeechobee County
Nonmetro Total


Nonmetropolitian Area Total


Total Units

56,046


66,254
108,865
175,119

9,298
62,896
72,194


36,773


Total
% of % Owner Assessed
State Occupied Value($mils)


1.41%


1.66%
2.73%
4.39%

0.23%
1.58%
1.81%

0.92%


1,436,030 36.02%


2,475
5,601
5,254
3,234
9,835
2,039
1,175
4,962
14,509
4,101
53,185


3,108
5,095
10,861
2,483
1,834
1,924
826
6,278
3,014
5,150
4,850
1,121
46,544


42,810
15,550
16,820
75,180


5,131
1,553
3,883
4,768
28,247
23,536
6,487
73,605

248,514


0.06%
0.14%
0.13%
0.08%
0.25%
0.05%
0.03%
0.12%
0.36%
0.10%
1.33%


0.08%
0.13%
0.27%
0.06%
0.05%
0.05%
0.02%
0.16%
0.08%
0.13%
0.12%
0.03%
1.17%


1.07%
0.39%
0.42%
1.89%


0.13%
0.04%
0.10%
0.12%
0.71%
0.59%
0.16%
1.85%

6.23%


72.66% $6,494.9


77.60%
74.76%
75.84%

74.75%
74.41%
74.45%


$9,812.7
$18,338.9
$28,151.6

$483.1
$6,566.6
$7,049.8


73.61% $6,227.0


$174,738.1


$101.4
$1,021.0
$637.4
$142.2
$487.3
$99.7
$46.3
$375.4
$2,658.7
$194.7
$5,764.0


$197.8
$305.4
$710.5
$119.8
$111.1
$85.3
$39.6
$412.5
$135.4
$290.7
$248.6
$55.2
$2,711.9


$3,402.6
$985.1
$1,467.1
$5,854.7


$322.4
$95.6
$185.3
$317.4
$1,813.8
$7,577.0
$453.1
$10,764.6

$25,095.3


73.78%
43.58%
53.35%
72.39%
71.61%
71.60%
66.81%
70.05%
54.56%
70.32%
62.00%


83.88%
73.44%
76.42%
61.22%
73.45%
68.92%
75.18%
72.33%
70.54%
74.47%
64.89%
77.52%
73.01%


79.50%
72.13%
77.78%
77.59%


70.20%
57.18%
74.99%
73.09%
71.31%
54.04%
69.97%
65.60%


% of
State


1.29%


1.94%
3.63%
5.58%

0.10%
1.30%
1.40%

1.23%

34.63%


0.02%
0.20%
0.13%
0.03%
0.10%
0.02%
0.01%
0.07%
0.53%
0.04%
1.14%


0.04%
0.06%
0.14%
0.02%
0.02%
0.02%
0.01%
0.08%
0.03%
0.06%
0.05%
0.01%
0.54%


0.67%
0.20%
0.29%
1.16%


0.06%
0.02%
0.04%
0.06%
0.36%
1.50%
0.09%
2.13%

4.97%














Total Just
Value
milsls)

$7,607.7


$11,775.7
$22,477.7
$34,253.4

$520.3
$7,227.9
$7,748.2


% of Average Relative
State Age Age Index


1.26%


1.96%
3.73%
5.69%

0.09%
1.20%
1.29%


$7,184.8 1.19%

$203,353.2 33.78%


20 0.81


2,350


0.98 2,384
0.99 1,731
0.99 1,980

1.29 1,595
0.97 1,866
1.01 1,832


21 0.85 1,990


%of
State


1,528 1.38%


2,938
3,715
6,653

99
1,400
1,499


2.65%
3.36%
6.01%

0.09%
1.26%
1.35%


1,354 1.22%


Number of
Sales
in 2002


4,902


5,942
10,375
16,317

253
5,009
5,264

2,830


% of
State


Median
2002
Sales Price


1.59% $121,000


1.93%
3.37%
5.30%

0.08%
1.63%
1.71%


$170,000
$153,500
$160,000

$83,000
$126,000
$125,000


0.92% $128,000


49,516 44.74% 106,283 34.54%


$104.2
$1,095.0
$750.8
$150.6
$540.6
$111.1
$49.4
$419.3
$2,842.7
$203.2
$6,266.8


$237.7
$330.1
$773.3
$151.9
$120.0
$92.7
$45.0
$474.9
$143.3
$343.7
$263.1
$61.7
$3,037.3


$3,847.9
$1,109.3
$1,636.3
$6,593.5


$342.7
$97.1
$193.7
$340.2
$1,877.6
$9,230.9
$486.8
$12,568.9


0.02%
0.18%
0.12%
0.03%
0.09%
0.02%
0.01%
0.07%
0.47%
0.03%
1.04%


0.04%
0.05%
0.13%
0.03%
0.02%
0.02%
0.01%
0.08%
0.02%
0.06%
0.04%
0.01%
0.50%


0.64%
0.18%
0.27%
1.10%


0.06%
0.02%
0.03%
0.06%
0.31%
1.53%
0.08%
2.09%


1,582
1,623
1,624
1,506
1,658
1,676
1,481
1,599
1,934
1,561
1,696


1,662
1,623
1,807
1,738
1,644
1,580
1,546
1,655
1,540
1,595
1,542
1,704
1,662


2,231
1,970
1,726
2,065


1,696
1,539
1,548
1,608
1,725
1,557
1,598
1,635


21
159
158
23
106
30
15
177
786
65
1,540


101
70
210
36
55
34
15
110
31
100
57
23
842


1,088
165
585
1,838


66
16
30
46
481
346
116
1,101


0.02%
0.14%
0.14%
0.02%
0.10%
0.03%
0.01%
0.16%
0.71%
0.06%
1.39%


0.09%
0.06%
0.19%
0.03%
0.05%
0.03%
0.01%
0.10%
0.03%
0.09%
0.05%
0.02%
0.76%


0.98%
0.15%
0.53%
1.66%


0.06%
0.01%
0.03%
0.04%
0.43%
0.31%
0.10%
0.99%


72
290
307
95
262
72
19
308
1,077
106
2,608


131
165
497
74
71
37
17
262
63
178
163
20
1,678


2,677
529
1,547
4,753


188
50
165
247
2,172
1,861
305
4,988


5,321 4.81% 14,027


New Units
Average Constructed
Size in 2002


0.02%
0.09%
0.10%
0.03%
0.09%
0.02%
0.01%
0.10%
0.35%
0.03%
0.85%


0.04%
0.05%
0.16%
0.02%
0.02%
0.01%
0.01%
0.09%
0.02%
0.06%
0.05%
0.01%
0.55%


0.87%
0.17%
0.50%
1.54%


0.06%
0.02%
0.05%
0.08%
0.71%
0.60%
0.10%
1.62%

4.56%


$55,650
$197,500
$165,000
$52,500
$70,400
$80,000
$55,000
$133,500
$215,000
$60,000
$140,000


$92,600
$75,000
$86,800
$79,300
$90,000
$58,500
$50,000
$80,000
$58,000
$78,500
$68,000
$74,000
$80,000


$85,000
$75,000
$141,900
$102,100


$79,950
$71,050
$59,500
$76,000
$72,000
$325,000
$82,500
$118,950


$28,466.4 4.73%







The 15 other MSAs contain 36
percent of the state's single-family
Housing stock, while the 32 non-
metropolitan counties contain only 6.2
Percent. The non-metropolitan counties
show the extremes of population
densities in the state. For example,
Lafayette County has fewer than 1,000
single-family units. Other counties with
less than 3,000 units include Calhoun,
Dixie, Gilchrist, Glades, Hamilton,
Jefferson, Liberty, and Union Counties.
These 10 counties combined have only
about one-half of one percent of the total
single-family housing units in the state.
Based on property appraiser data, a

Figure 3.4 Percentage of State's Single-Family Housing Stock


PorcoIIuag. ol Sian Sirele I-illy Mousig Slack
.d IDV&

IML Do ID! D
fl2 U I ta iVY'


total of 110,675 single-family units were
constructed in the state in 2002. These
units increased the size of the housing
stock in the state by about 2.8 percent.
Slightly more than 50 percent of the new
units were constructed in the six large
metropolitan areas, with 14.7 percent in
the Orlando MSA and 14 percent in the
34 Tampa Bay MSA. Among counties in
0~E


the smaller MSAs, Brevard and Lee had
4 percent or more of the state's new
construction. Lee County, with 6,675
new units, exceeded the level of new
construction in all of the metropolitan
counties in the state except Broward,
Hillsborough, and Orange. The
construction numbers show rapid growth
in population in several of the smaller
MSAs.
The total assessed value (the property
appraiser's estimate of the value of a home
for the calculation of property taxes) of
single-family units in the state shows a
similar pattern. The total assessed value
of single-family units in the state is
approximately $504.5 billion and almost
60.4 percent of that total is found in the
major MSAs. The three southeast Florida
counties-Miami-Dade, Broward, and
Palm Beach-have almost 29 percent of
the total assessed value. The average
assessed value of a single-family housing
unit in Florida is about $116,000
A relative age index is constructed to
compare the average age of housing units
in a county or MSA to the state total. A
problem with the age variable is that the
age of a unit is changed if significant
remodeling and renovations have been
completed on a unit to reflect the date
of those improvements. However,
assuming that improvements to a house
increase the longevity of the unit, then
the improvements may represent a
reasonable means to convey the age of
the stock.
The age variable is also not
consistently recorded in all counties.
Counties or MSAs with a housing stock
older than Florida's average have a relative
age index greater than one. Areas with a
relatively young stock have an index less
than one. The housing stock in four of
the major MSAs is slightly older than the
state. For the other MSAs, only
Lakeland-Winter Haven, Pensacola, and
Tallahassee have a relative age index of
greater than 1.
Comparisons at these high levels of
aggregation, however, mask significant







differences in individual MSAs and
counties. For example, with a relative
age index of 0.49, Flagler County in the
Daytona Beach MSA has the newest
housing stock in Florida. This reflects a
single-family housing stock in Flagler
with an average age of 12 years. Other
counties with relative age indexes of 0.75
or below include Clay, St. Johns, Osceola,
and Hernando Counties among major
MSA counties; Collier and Santa Rosa
Counties among the other MSAs; and
Citrus, Sumter, and Walton Counties in
the non-metropolitan category. Many of
the counties with newer housing stocks
are coastal counties that have experienced
rapid growth; others are suburban
counties in growing metropolitan areas.
Citrus and Sumter Counties are
experiencing growth related to major
development targeted to retirement
populations
Single-family housing stocks that are
older than the state average are generally
found in large urban counties or in the
rural, interior counties with smaller
populations. The oldest single-family
stock is in Hamilton and Pinellas
County, with a relative age index of 1.41
and a mean age of 34 years. Other non-
metropolitan counties with a relative age
index of 1.25 or greater include Bradford,
Calhoun, Hardee, Holmes, Jackson,
Lafayette, Liberty, Putnam, and
Suwannee. Among the metropolitan
counties, the oldest housing stock is
found in Pinellas County with an average
age of 34 years. Miami-Dade (33 years),
Gadsden (32 years), Duval (31 years),
Escambia (30 years), and Polk (29 years)
also have relatively old housing stocks.
Counties with the largest number of
sales transactions in 2002 are, as
expected, the largest counties in
population. Approximately 60.9 percent
of the single-family transactions in the
state in 2002 were in the major MSA
counties, with 16.7 percent in the Tampa
Bay MSA and 13.7 percent in the
Orlando MSA. Among individual
counties Broward was the highest with


11.6 percent of the state total while
Orange and Hillsborough each had
approximately 6.9 percent and Miami-
Dade had 6.5 percent of Florida's 2002
transactions. Nearly 23 percent of
transactions in 2002 were in the three
southeast Florida counties-Miami-
Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach.


Figure 3.5 Median 2002 Single-Family Sales Price








2I Mslre 51nille.F1amRl Salke Ptlc


M ,ln'P-0 v. $-" 0 l': -D


















Over 34.5 percent of all sales in 2002
were in other MSA counties, while the
remaining 4.5 percent were in the non-
metropolitan counties. Lee County had
4.6 percent of the state's transactions in
2002. Brevard had 3.8 percent and,
Sarasota County had 3.4 percent.
The highest single-family median sales
prices in 2002 were in Monroe
($325,000), Collier ($250,000), Walton
($215,000), St. Johns ($200,000),
Franklin ($197,500), and Palm Beach
($197,000) Counties. Other counties
with median sales prices above $150,000
include Broward, Gulf, Lee, Manatee,
Martin, Miami-Dade, Nassau, Orange,
Sarasota, and Seminole. All of these
35







'^The I1

U-ae o Foria'

Hous^Win


*2004


counties except Orange and Seminole are
coastal counties. Counties with low
median prices include a number with
median prices below $60,000 in 2002:
Hardee ($59,500), Hamilton ($58,500),
Madison ($58,000), Calhoun ($55,650),
Liberty ($55,000), Holmes ($52,500),
and Lafayette ($50,000).
As shown in figure 3.5, the sales price
data further illustrate the differences
between urban and rural counties and
between coastal and non-coastal
counties. The highest median prices in
2002 are in coastal counties, several of
which are not major urban counties (for
example, Walton). At the other extreme,
counties with the lowest mean house
prices are generally rural, slow growing,
and located in the interior of the state.


Figure 3.6 Percentage of State's Condominium Stock


Pneanlmaq at Stain' CankSnlm Slack
EM L cu4
CI3 Wl'J 1t
m ELds tD~
1' gL '4mnu..u


, -J oo


3.4 Condominiums

The role of condominiums in
providing housing in a county is another
indicator of the differences in housing
stock across counties. Table 3.2 contains
summary information on the state's stock
of condominiums. As expected,
condominiums are an important source
of housing in coastal counties where a
number of retirees live, but not in interior
counties. Summing across counties
indicates that there were 1,340,915
condominium-housing units in the state
in 2003, and 48.6 percent of these units
are owner-occupied, much less than the
77.5 percent owner-occupied percentage
found in the single-family stock. A total
of 776,988 units, or 58 percent of
condominium units in the state, are
located in three southeast Florida
counties: Miami-Dade, Broward, and
Palm Beach. Figure 3.6 shows the
geographical distribution of
condominiums across the state. In total,
the non-MSA counties have less than 2.0
percent of the total condominiums in the
state, and almost 80 percent of these are
found in two counties: Monroe and
Walton.
While other coastal metropolitan
counties have a much smaller stock of
condominium units than the three
southeast counties, condominiums still
play a major role in the provision of
housing in those counties. For example,
Collier County's 78,042 condominium
units far exceed the 61,860 single-family
housing units in the county.
Condominium units also exceed single-
family units in Palm Beach County.
Other counties with large numbers of
condominiums are Brevard,
Hillsborough, Lee, Manatee, Pinellas,
Orange, Sarasota, and Volusia.
Discussion of the characteristics of
condominiums in the state is limited by
the lack of data in a number of the data
fields in some counties. These fields
include year built, age, and price. The







following description is based on the
available data.
Some of the newest condominium
stocks are located in non-metropolitan
counties, for example Franklin, with a
mean age of 3 years. Among the major
metropolitan counties, Pinellas has the
highest mean age of 24 years for
condominium units.
The number of condominium sales
in the state totaled 140,975 units in
2002. Of these over 26 percent occurred
in Miami-Dade County, 19 percent in
Palm Beach County, and approximately
15 percent in Broward County. These
three southeast counties accounted for
about 60 percent of all condominium
transactions in the state.
Figure 3.7 shows the median sales
prices for condominiums vary widely
across counties. The median price of
condominium units sold in the state in
2002 was $124,500. Counties with
median prices above $200,000 were the
$280,000 in Nassau County, $279,000
in Santa Rosa, $235,000 in Walton,
$230,000 in Monroe, and $210,000 in
Okaloosa. Except for Nassau, these are
coastal counties located in smaller MSAs
or in nonmetropolitan areas. The
relatively high price of portions of the
condominium stock in Florida appears
to reflect the steep premium paid for the
ocean accessibility that is an attribute of
many condominiums in coastal settings
and the retirement or second home
clientele for the units. Condominium
units in the larger counties have lower
median sales prices, including $85,500
in Broward, $83,250 in Hillsborough,
$133,300 in Miami-Dade, and $75,000
in Orange County. While these counties
have high priced units, the medians
indicate a broader market for
condominium units.


Figure 3.7 Median 2002 Condominium Sales Price


2002 Median Cundamilnbum Sales PrIct
Lb Cvrvftn i S 'n m 2M
UP5.Hw ta sW.-

4m CcW2fl rr wanl. ma2
,-"'i-n 2" rwn wnn ^sf.iriW0







The State of Florida's Housing, 2004


Talse 3.2 Condominiu 66


Broward County


Clay County
Duval County
Nassau County
St. Johns County
MSA Total

Miami-Dade County

Lake County
Orange County
Osceola County
Seminole County
MSA Total


Tampa-St. Petersburg-
Clearwater, FL MSA Hernando County
Hillsborough County
Pasco County
Pinellas County
MSA Total


West Palm Beach-
Boca Raton, FL MSA


Palm Beach County


Florida

Fort Lauderdale,
FL MSA


Major Metropolitian
Area Total 972,342


Daytona
Beach, FL MSA


Flagler County
Volusia County
MSA Total


Fort Myers-
Cape Coral, FL MSA Lee County


Fort Pierce-Port
St. Lucie, FL MSA



Fort Walton
Beach, FL MSA


Martin County
St. Lucie County
MSA Total


Okaloosa County


Gainesville, FL MSA Alachua County


Lakeland-Winter
Haven, FL MSA


Polk County


Melbourne-Titusville
-Palm Bay, FL MSA Brevard County


Naples, FL MSA

Ocala, FL MSA


Collier County

Marion County


1,817
23,829
25,646


55,386


13,003
12,022
25,025


9,955

3,270


6,696


25,831

78,042

5,835


Total
% of % Owner Assessed
State Occupied Value($mils)

100.00% 48.60% $165,713.1


15.77% 56.16% $17,388.0


0.08%
0.68%
0.21%
0.67%
1.65%


61.24%
55.43%
18.39%
29.99%
40.60%


$82.3
$945.4
$815.6
$1,569.3
$3,412.6


21.57% 53.26% $35,031.2


0.20%
2.53%
0.27%
0.62%
3.63%


0.06%
1.68%
0.81%
6.75%
9.30%


55.84%
30.78%
11.71%
60.48%
35.83%


52.30%
58.56%
53.43%
53.10%
54.11%


$253.5
$4,568.1
$1,696.2
$498.2
$7,016.0


$36.1
$1,645.9
$568.6
$8,685.8
$10,936.4


211,462


1,117
9,113
2,811
9,022
22,063

289,222

2,713
33,923
3,646
8,327
48,609


782
22,470
10,923
90,507
124,682


276,304


72.51%


0.14%
1.78%
1.91%


$106,975.6


34.12%
31.47%
31.66%


$234.8
$2,939.7
$3,174.5


4.13% 33.46% $8,886.7


0.97%
0.90%
1.87%


49.00%
37.51%
43.48%


$1,216.3
$1,433.0
$2,649.3


0.74% 10.30% $1,909.3

0.24% 47.09% $184.6


0.50% 37.95% $307.7


1.93% 43.65% $2,295.7

5.82% 29.93% $17,292.3

0.44% 67.87% $317.5


% of
State


Total Just
Value
milsls)


100.00% $182,012.8


10.49% $20,165.6


0.05%
0.57%
0.49%
0.95%
2.06%


$90.3
$1,110.3
$858.2
$1,689.5
$3,748.3


21.14% $38,500.8


0.15%
2.76%
1.02%
0.30%
4.23%


0.02%
0.99%
0.34%
5.24%
6.60%


$262.6
$4,709.2
$1,697.8
$554.8
$7,224.5


$36.7
$1,879.8
$617.0
$9,835.8
$12,369.3


20.03% $36,894.0


64.55% $118,902.5


0.14%
1.77%
1.92%


$246.5
$3,161.6
$3,408.1


5.36% $9,348.9


0.73%
0.86%
1.60%


$1,352.8
$1,582.6
$2,935.4


1.15% $1,935.4


0.11%


0.19%


$198.8


$315.4


1.39% $2,553.4

10.44% $18,483.0


0.19%


$324.3


(*) -Less than 25 Observations, ($) -Less than 2/3 of observations have valid year built entries
(#) -Less than 2/3 of observations have valid square footage entries


Total Units

1,340,915


20.61% 57.06% $33,191.5


Jacksonville,
FL MSA


Miami, FL MSA

Orlando, FL MSA














New Units Number of Median
% of Average Constructed Sales % of 2002
State Age in 2002 in 2002 State Sales Price

.00% ($) ($) 140,975 100.00% $124,500


($) 20,791


11.08%


0.05%
0.61%
0.47%
0.93%
2.06%

21.15%

0.14%
2.59%
0.93%
0.30%
3.97%


0.02%
1.03%
0.34%
5.40%
6.80%


20.27%


65.33%


0.14%
1.74%
1.87%


5.14%


0.74%
0.87%
1.61%


1.06%

0.11%


0.17%


1.40%

10.15%

0.18%


157
1,082
328
1,214
2,781

36,786

219
2,931
394
968
4,512


73
2,502
1,016
8,317
11,908


26,750


7,146 103,528


14.75% $85,500


0.11%
0.77%
0.23%
0.86%
1.97%


26.09% $133,000


0.16%
2.08%
0.28%
0.69%
3.20%


0.05%
1.77%
0.72%
5.90%
8.45%


18.97% $142,995


73.44%


0.20%
0.31%
0.51%


4,058 7,332


0 1,184
128 1,140
128 2,324


($) 1,240

23 430


($) 506


546 2,792

3,127 7,837

15 441


5.20% $145,900


0.84%
0.81%
1.65%


0.88% $210,000


0.31% $78,300


0.36% $56,500


1.98% $98,000

5.56% $171,000

0.31% $59,500


100


$114,500
$113,500
$280,000
$157,500
$137,900


$68,000
$75,000
$107,200
$81,600
$79,000


$72,500
$83,250
$60,100
$83,000
$80,000


6,432


$132,750
$124,900
$128,900


$82,950
$125,000
$91,000







The State of Florida's Housing, 2004


Total Total Just
% of % Owner Assessed % of Value
Total Units State Occupied Value($mils) State milsls)

Panama City, FL MSA Bay County 11,086 0.83% 9.19% $1,371.9 0.83% $1,393.5

Pensacola, FL MSA Escambia County 4,547 0.34% 24.10% $607.1 0.37% $622.6
Santa Rosa County 1,438 0.11% 19.68% $268.8 0.16% $271.7
MSA Total 5,985 0.45% 23.04% $876.0 0.53% $894.2

Punta Gorda,
FL MSA Charlotte County 11,613 0.87% 32.48% $1,483.0 0.89% $1,576.4

Sarasota-
Bradenton, FL MSA Manatee County 23,938 1.79% 50.30% $2,757.8 1.66% $3,048.5
Sarasota County 45,178 3.37% 41.89% $9,249.2 5.58% $10,422.1
MSA Total 69,116 5.15% 44.80% $12,006.9 7.25% $13,470.6

Tallahassee,
FL MSA Leon County 747 0.06% 24.36% $33.8 0.02% $34.8

Vero Beach, FL MSA Indian River County 12,070 0.90% 42.47% $1,909.6 1.15% $2,073.1

Remaining Metropolitian Area Total 346,303 25.83% $54,698.8 33.01% $58,945.4

Northwest
Nonmetropolitan Area Franklin County 37 0.00% 10.81% $5.2 0.00% $5.2
Gulf County 69 0.01% 4.35% $9.3 0.01% $9.4
Wakulla County 101 0.01% 15.84% $10.6 0.01% $10.6
Walton County 9,040 0.67% 7.18% $1,877.9 1.13% $1,895.3
Nonmetro Total 9,247 0.69% 7.27% $1,902.9 1.15% $1,920.5

Northeast
Nonmetropolitan Area Bradford County 18 0.00% 88.89% (*) () (*)
Columbia County 46 0.00% 71.74% $2.9 0.00% $3.1
Levy County 217 0.02% 3.23% $21.0 0.01% $21.2
Taylor County 33 0.00% 3.03% $3.6 0.00% $3.6
Nonmetro Total 314 0.02% 18.15% $28.5 0.02% $29.0

Central
Nonmetropolitan Area Citrus County 1,471 0.11% 43.58% $83.1 0.05% $88.5
Putnam County 141 0.01% 34.75% $9.7 0.01% $9.8
Sumter County 105 0.01% 43.81% $3.8 0.00% $3.8
Nonmetro Total 1,717 0.13% 42.87% $96.6 0.06% $102.1

South
Nonmetropolitan Area DeSoto County 591 0.04% 43.15% $38.9 0.02% $40.0
Glades County 175 0.01% 20.00% $5.1 0.00% $5.2
Hardee County 217 0.02% 35.48% $7.9 0.00% $7.9
Hendry County 158 0.01% 22.78% $9.0 0.01% $9.4
Highlands County 1,158 0.09% 42.14% $52.4 0.03% $52.8
Monroe County 8,535 0.64% 15.70% $1,890.8 1.14% $1,991.1
Okeechobee County 158 0.01% 22.78% $6.7 0.00% $6.9
Nonmetro Total 10,992 0.82% 20.62% $2,010.7 1.21% $2,113.3

Nonmetropolitian Area Total 22,270 1.66% $4,038.7 2.44% $4,164.9














New Units Number of Median
% of Average Constructed Sales % of 2002
State Age in 2002 in 2002 State Sales Price

0.77% ($) ($) 1,248 0.89% $134,000


0.34%
0.15%
0.49%


0.38%
0.20%
0.58%


$135,000
$279,900
$203,000


157 1,287


0.91% $88,000


2,245
4,035
6,280


1.59%
2.86%
4.45%


0 112 0.08%
0.00%
162 1,194 0.85%


1.67%
5.73%
7.40%


0.02%

1.14%

32.39%


0.00%
0.01%
0.01%
1.04%
1.06%


(*)
0.00%
0.01%
0.00%
0.02%


0.05%
0.01%
0.00%
0.06%


0.02%
0.00%
0.00%
0.01%
0.03%
1.09%
0.00%
1.16%

2.29%


34,556


12
6
12
1,516
1,546


0
4
33
0
37


129
18
12
159


78
10
10
8
139
877
27
1,149

2,298


24.51%


0.01%
0.00%
0.01%
1.08%
1.10%


0.00%
0.00%
0.02%
0.00%
0.03%


0.09%
0.01%
0.01%
0.11%


0.06%
0.01%
0.01%
0.01%
0.10%
0.62%
0.02%
0.82%

2.05%


8,984


0
0
($)
($)
($)


(*)
0
18
($)
18


6
0
($)
6


($)
($)
10
0
10
($)
0
($)

24


$118,600
$150,000
$136,500


$51,800

$99,950


(*)
(*)
(*)
$235,000
$234,386


NA
(*)
$155,000
NA
$155,000


$72,000
(*)
(*)
$72,000


$83,000
(*)
(*)
(*)
$56,000
$230,000
$43,900
$180,000







'^The I1

U-ae o Foria'

Hous^Win


*2004


3.5 Multi-family Housing

The county property appraiser data
used in this report do not allow an
accounting for the number of units in
multifamily rental structures, as only
information on the parcels is reported.
It is this information that is summarized
below. We divide the multifamily stock,
consistent with the appraiser data, into
two categories: complexes with less than
10 units and complexes with 10 or more
units.
Table 3.3 contains summary
information on the state's stock of
multifamily properties containing fewer
than 10 units. There are about 156,000
multifamily properties that contain fewer
than 10 units in the state of Florida.
Approximately 68 percent of these are
found in the six major metropolitan
areas, with another almost 28 percent
located in other metropolitan areas.
Only 3.5 percent of these small
multifamily complexes are found in non-
MSA counties. Almost 21 percent of the
units in this category are found in Miami-
Dade County. Only nine of the 31 non-
MSA counties have more than 100 such
complexes, with Monroe having over 47
percent of the non-MSA total. Other
non-MSA counties with more than 100
properties were Columbia, Citrus,
Putnam, DeSoto, Hardee, Hendry,
Highlands and Okeechobee Counties.
These numbers again point to the
differences that are observed between the
urban, coastal counties and the rural,
interior counties of Florida. As with
condominium units, which are also likely
found in multifamily structures, it is
apparent that urban and coastal counties
are the predominant settings for such
structures while the rural and interior
counties are characterized by a largely
single-family housing stock.
The mean age of multifamily
complexes containing 9 or fewer units is
23 years for the state. Counties with the
oldest average ages (and at least 100
properties) include Duval (46), Miami-
Dade (41), Monroe (42), and Pinellas
(50).


Table 3.4 contains information on
larger multifamily complexes, those with
10 or more units. There are many fewer
of these large multifamily complexes,
14,218 compared to 156,000 smaller
properties (less than 10 units).
Undoubtedly however, these larger
complexes comprise many more units
than the smaller complexes.
About 27 percent of these larger
complexes are located in Miami-Dade
County, with 13 percent in Broward
County and 12.2 percent in the Tampa
Bay MSA. The six major MSAs contain
approximately 71 percent of all
complexes of this type. The other MSAs
contain almost 25.4 percent of the state
total, with Volusia, Alachua, Leon, and
Sarasota Counties having more than 300
complexes. The Alachua and Leon
numbers reflect the concentration of
college students in those communities.
Non-MSA counties contain only 3.4
percent of the state's stock of larger
apartment complexes.
The average age of these larger
complexes is 29 years. Miami-Dade (37
years), Pinellas (37 years), and Volusia
(39 years) Counties have relatively old
stocks of larger complexes. At 20 years,
the Orlando MSA has the youngest stock
of such complexes among the six major
MSAs.

3.6 Summary

The county property appraiser data
provides a wealth of data on
characteristics of the housing stock across
the state. The county-by-county and
MSA summaries clearly show differences
in the importance of single-family
properties, condominiums, and
multifamily properties. Also apparent are
differences across the state in the age and
size of units. Finally, there are significant
differences in the numbers of transactions
each year and in the median values of
properties. The differences show that the
state might be characterized as two states
when thinking about the housing
market, with the large urban and coastal
counties at one extreme and the small,
rural inland counties at the other.








Table 3.3 Multi-Faml H g S k w


Total % of Total Assessed
Units State Value
(Millions of Dollars)


Florida


Fort Lauderdale, FL MSA

Jacksonville, FL MSA


Miami, FL MSA


Orlando, FL MSA





Tampa-St. Petersburg-
Clearwater, FL MSA


Broward County

Clay County
Duval County
Nassau County
St. Johns County
MSA Total


% of
State


155,655 100.00% $20,816.1 100.00%

19,462 12.50% $3,247.2 15.60%


276
4,357
314
1,845
6,792


Miami-Dade County 32,010


Lake County
Orange County
Osceola County
Seminole County
MSA Total


Hernando County
Hillsborough County
Pasco County
Pinellas County
MSA Total


1,203
10,400
838
1,140
13,581


417
5,158
3,878
13,440
22,893


0.18%
2.80%
0.20%
1.19%
4.36%

20.56%

0.77%
6.68%
0.54%
0.73%
8.73%


0.27%
3.31%
2.49%
8.63%
14.71%


$28.8
$490.9
$56.6
$313.0
$889.3


0.14%
2.36%
0.27%
1.50%
4.27%


$5,331.1 25.61%


$110.3
$858.0
$116.5
$108.8
$1,193.6


$40.2
$482.6
$291.5
$1,837.4
$2,651.6


0.53%
4.12%
0.56%
0.52%
5.73%


0.19%
2.32%
1.40%
8.83%
12.74%


Total Just % of
Value State
(Millions of Dollars)

$22,250.8 100.00%


$3,509.8 15.77%


$28.8
$527.0
$60.9
$377.7
$994.4


age Relative
Age Age
Index

23 1.00

37 1.59


0.13%
2.37%
0.27%
1.70%
4.47%


$5,668.6 25.48%


$111.4
$897.9
$118.0
$111.6
$1,238.9


$40.6
$494.0
$321.8
$2,051.4
$2,907.8


0.50%
4.04%
0.53%
0.50%
5.57%


0.18%
2.22%
1.45%
9.22%
13.07%


West Palm Beach-
Boca Raton, FL MSA


Palm Beach County 11,247


$1,504.3 7.23%


$1,605.7 7.22%


Major Metropolitian
Area Total 105,985 68.09% $14,817.1 71.18% $15,925.1 71.57%


Daytona Beach, FL MSA



Fort Myers-
Cape Coral, FL MSA

Fort Pierce-
Port St. Lucie, FL MSA



Fort Walton
Beach, FL MSA

Gainesville, FL MSA

Lakeland-
Winter Haven, FL MSA

Melbourne-Titusville-
Palm Bay, FL MSA

Naples, FL MSA

Ocala, FL MSA

Panama City, FL MSA

Pensacola, FL MSA


Flagler County
Volusia County
MSA Total


Lee County


Martin County
St. Lucie County
MSA Total


Okaloosa County

Alachua County


Polk County


Brevard County

Collier County

Marion County


Bay County


Escambia County
Santa Rosa County
MSA Total


456
9,030
9,486


0.29%
5.80%
6.09%


5,785 3.72%


910
1,476
2,386


0.58%
0.95%
1.53%


753 0.48%

1,718 1.10%


4,070 2.61%


2,970 1.91%

1,965 1.26%

1,103 0.71%

812 0.52%


1,858
593
2,451


1.19%
0.38%
1.57%


$59.6
$722.5
$782.1


0.29%
3.47%
3.76%


$751.5 3.61%


$107.8
$110.6
$218.4


0.52%
0.53%
1.05%


$91.5 0.44%

$135.5 0.65%


$263.9 1.27%


$352.0 1.69%

$341.8 1.64%

$84.9 0.41%

$86.7 0.42%


$154.0
$52.8
$206.8


0.74%
0.25%
0.99%


$61.7
$787.8
$849.4


0.28%
3.54%
3.82%


$798.4 3.59%


$111.9
$111.6
$223.5


0.50%
0.50%
1.00%


$91.9 0.41%

$137.5 0.62%


$264.6 1.19%


$377.0 1.69%

$354.3 1.59%

$85.5 0.38%

$87.3 0.39%


$161.5
$53.0
$214.4


0.73%
0.24%
0.96%


(*) Less than 25 Observations, ($) -Less than 2/3 of observations have valid year built entries
(#) -Less than 2/3 of observations have valid square footage entries


Aver


41 1.77


41 1.75


25 1.05


29 1.25

29 1.25


31 1.33


39 1.65

26 1.09

25 1.08

21 0.88







The State of Florida's Housing, 2004


Table 3.3 Mti-Family Housig S k wh orLe


Total % of Total Assessed
Units State Value
(Millions of Dollars)


%of
State


Total Just
Value
(Millions of Dollars)


% of Average Relative
State Age Age
Index


Punta Gorda, FL MSA

Sarasota-
Bradenton, FL MSA



Tallahassee, FL MSA



Vero Beach, FL MSA

Remaining Metropolitian
Area Total

Northwest
Nonmetropolitan Area








Nonmetro Total

Northeast
Nonmetropolitan Area













Central
Nonmetropolitan Area




South
Nonmetropolitan Area






Nonmetro Total


Charlotte County


Manatee County
Sarasota County
MSA Total

Gadsden County
Leon County
MSA Total

Indian River County


$152.1 0.73%


4,514
2,272
6,786

11
1,992
2,003


2.90%
1.46%
4.36%

0.01%
1.28%
1.29%


779 0.50%


$629.2
$355.3
$984.5

()
$209.8
$219.3


3.02%
1.71%
4.73%

()
1.01%
1.05%


$91.6 0.44%


44,084 28.32% $4,762.7 22.88%


Calhoun County
Franklin County
Holmes County
Jackson County
Jefferson County
Liberty County
Wakulla County
Walton County
Washington County



Baker County
Bradford County
Columbia County
Dixie County
Gilchrist County
Hamilton County
Lafayette County
Levy County
Madison County
Suwannee County
Taylor County
Union County
Nonmetro Total


Citrus County
Putnam County
Sumter County
Nonmetro Total


DeSoto County
Glades County
Hardee County
Hendry County
Highlands County
Monroe County
Okeechobee County


3
16
6
66
12
7
19
49
14
192


26
16
209
1
8
17
4
68
41
43
8
8
449


378
136
72
586


173
35
226
412
707
2,680
126
4,359


0.00%
0.01%
0.00%
0.04%
0.01%
0.00%
0.01%
0.03%
0.01%
0.12%


0.02%
0.01%
0.13%
0.00%
0.01%
0.01%
0.00%
0.04%
0.03%
0.03%
0.01%
0.01%
0.29%


0.24%
0.09%
0.05%
0.38%


0.11%
0.02%
0.15%
0.26%
0.45%
1.72%
0.08%
2.80%


(*)
(*)
(*)
$15.2
(*)
(*)
(*)
$9.6
()
$41.1


$4.3
()
$22.2
()
()
()
()
$6.3
$4.4
$3.1
()
()
$53.8


$29.7
$8.8
$5.1
$43.6


$11.7
$2.5
$11.6
$30.7
$39.1
$991.7
$10.6
$1,097.8


(*)
(*)
(*)
0.07%
(*)
(*)
(*)
0.05%
()
0.20%


0.02%
()
0.11%
(*)
(*)
(*)
(*)
0.03%
0.02%
0.02%
(*)
(*)
0.26%


0.14%
0.04%
0.02%
0.21%


0.06%
0.01%
0.06%
0.15%
0.19%
4.76%
0.05%
5.27%


$160.8 0.72%


$678.7
$365.7
$1,044.4

(*)
$211.5
$221.0


3.05%
1.64%
4.69%

(*)
0.95%
0.99%


$93.3 0.42%


$5,003.4 22.49%


(*)
(*)
(*)
$15.2
(*)
(*)
(*)
$10.0
(*)
$41.6


$4.3
(*)
$22.3
(*)
(*)
(*)
(*)
$6.5
$4.4
$3.2
(*)
(*)
$54.1


$30.1
$9.4
$5.2
$44.8
0.00%

$11.8
$2.5
$11.7
$31.9
$39.2
$1,074.1
$10.7
$1,181.8


(*)
(*)
(*)
0.07%
(*)
(*)
(*)
0.04%
()
0.19%


0.02%
()
0.10%
(*)
(*)
(*)
(*)
0.03%
0.02%
0.01%
(*)
(*)
0.24%


0.14%
0.04%
0.02%
0.20%


0.05%
0.01%
0.05%
0.14%
0.18%
4.83%
0.05%
5.31%


5,586 3.59% $1,236.35 5.94% $1,322.30 5.94%


27 1.15


29 1.25


1,017 0.65%


Nonmetropolitian Area Total








Tab Sle 3.4Mlti-Fmily ousin Stok w it 0 s 1


Florida
Fort Lauderdale, FL MSA

Jacksonville, FL MSA


Miami, FL MSA


Orlando, FL MSA





Tampa-St. Petersburg-
Clearwater, FL MSA


West Palm Beach-Boca
Raton, FL MSA


Broward County

Clay County
Duval County
Nassau County
St. Johns County
MSA Total

Miami-Dade County

Lake County
Orange County
Osceola County
Seminole County
MSA Total


Hernando County
Hillsborough County
Pasco County
Pinellas County
MSA Total


Palm Beach County


Total % of Total Assessed % of
Units State Value State
(Millions of Dollars)
14,218 100.00% $37,314.2 100.00%
1,863 13.10% $5,879.4 15.76%


3,862

116
744
79
245
1,184


49
766
132
788
1,735


0.30%
3.89%
0.27%
0.25%
4.71%

27.16%

0.82%
5.23%
0.56%
1.72%
8.33%


0.34%
5.39%
0.93%
5.54%
12.20%


800 5.63%


$205.4
$2,390.0
$42.7
$194.8
$2,832.9


0.55%
6.41%
0.11%
0.52%
7.59%


$7,393.3 19.81%


$166.5
$3,895.6
$452.9
$1,323.9
$5,838.8


$45.0
$3,452.3
$199.7
$2,003.6
$5,700.6


0.45%
10.44%
1.21%
3.55%
15.65%


0.12%
9.25%
0.54%
5.37%
15.28%


$3,189.6 8.55%


Total Just % of Average Relative
Value State Age Age
(Millions of Dollars) Index


$37,326.4 100.00%
$5,885.1 15.77%


$205.4
$2,390.1
$43.1
$194.8
$2,833.4


29 1.00
31 1.06


0.55%
6.40%
0.12%
0.52%
7.59%


$7,397.0 19.82%


$166.5
$3,895.7
$452.9
$1,323.9
$5,838.9


$45.0
$3,452.3
$199.7
$2,004.1
$5,701.1


37 1.27


0.45%
10.44%
1.21%
3.55%
15.64%


0.12%
9.25%
0.54%
5.37%
15.27%


$3,189.7 8.55%


29 0.98


Major Metropolitian
Area Total 10,114 71.14% $30,834.6 82.64% $30,845.2 82.64%


Daytona Beach, FL MSA



Fort Myers-
Cape Coral, FL MSA

Fort Pierce-
Port St. Lucie, FL MSA



Fort Walton
Beach, FL MSA

Gainesville, FL MSA

Lakeland-
Winter Haven, FL MSA

Melbourne-Titusville-
Palm Bay, FL MSA

Naples, FL MSA

Ocala, FL MSA

Panama City, FL MSA


Flagler County
Volusia County
MSA Total


Lee County


Martin County
St. Lucie County
MSA Total


Okaloosa County

Alachua County


Polk County


Brevard County

Collier County

Marion County


Bay County


7 0.05%
489 3.44%
496 3.49%


176 1.24%


0.43%
0.48%
0.91%


149 1.05%

379 2.67%


243 1.71%


275 1.93%

103 0.72%

93 0.65%

129 0.91%


(*)
$453.6
$462.0


(*)
1.22%
1.24%


$583.6 1.56%


$137.8
$124.0
$261.8


0.37%
0.33%
0.70%


$143.7 0.39%

$742.1 1.99%


$321.4 0.86%


$585.8 1.57%

$668.1 1.79%

$133.2 0.36%

$145.7 0.39%


(*)
$453.9
$462.2


(*)
1.22%
1.24%


$583.6 1.56%


$138.1
$124.0
$262.1


0.37%
0.33%
0.70%


$144.0 0.39%

$742.1 1.99%


$321.5 0.86%


$586.1 1.57%

$668.1 1.79%

$133.3 0.36%

$145.8 0.39%


Pensacola, FL MSA


Escambia County
Santa Rosa County
MSA Total


0.93%
0.34%
1.27%


$271.5
$53.0
$324.5


0.73%
0.14%
0.87%


(*) Less than 25 Observations, ($) Less than 2/3 of observations have valid year built entries
(#) Less than 2/3 of observations have valid square footage entries


20 0.67


22 0.75

22 0.75


27 0.90


29 0.98

15 0.50

23 0.79

22 0.73


$271.5
$53.0
$324.5


0.73%
0.14%
0.87%







The State of Florida's Housing, 2004

Table3.4 MliFmilyHoug S k h 0 or Me Ut


Total % of Total Assessed % of
Units State Value State
(Millions of Dollars)


Punta Gorda, FL MSA

Sarasota-
Bradenton, FL MSA



Tallahassee, FL MSA



Vero Beach, FL MSA

Remaining Metropolitian
Area Total

Northwest
Nonmetropolitan Area










Northeast
Nonmetropolitan Area












Central
Nonmetropolitan Area




South
Nonmetropolitan Area


Charlotte County


Manatee County
Sarasota County
MSA Total

Gadsden County
Leon County
MSA Total

Indian River County


Calhoun County
Franklin County
Gulf County
Holmes County
Jackson County
Jefferson County
Wakulla County
Walton County
Washington County
Nonmetro Total


Baker County
Bradford County
Columbia County
Dixie County
Gilchrist County
Lafayette County
Levy County
Madison County
Suwannee County
Taylor County
Union County
Nonmetro Total


Citrus County
Putnam County
Sumter County
Nonmetro Total


DeSoto County
Glades County
Hardee County
Hendry County
Highlands County
Monroe County
Okeechobee County
Nonmetro Total


26 0.18%


252 1.77%
543 3.82%
795 5.59%

49 0.34%
353 2.48%
402 2.83%

42 0.30%


3,618 25.45%


4 0.03%
26 0.18%
8 0.06%
6 0.04%
15 0.11%
7 0.05%
2 0.01%
79 0.56%
2 0.01%
149 1.05%


1 0.01%
16 0.11%
24 0.17%
4 0.03%
1 0.01%
1 0.01%
11 0.08%
8 0.06%
15 0.11%
1 0.01%
5 0.04%
87 0.61%


48 0.34%
29 0.20%
43 0.30%
120 0.84%


33 0.23%
4 0.03%
8 0.06%
14 0.10%
57 0.40%
12 0.08%
2 0.01%
130 0.91%

486 3.42%


$54.0 0.14%


$462.0
$540.2
$1,002.2

$4.2
$684.9
$689.1


1.24%
1.45%
2.69%

0.01%
1.84%
1.85%


$100.9 0.27%


$6,218.0 16.66%


()
$4.3
()
()
()
()
()
$22.1
()
$42.4


()
()
()
()
()
()
()
()
()
()
()
$61.0


$22.1
$28.1
$7.9
$58.1


$14.5
()
()
()
$25.4
()
()
$100.1


()
0.01%
(*)
(*)
(*)
(*)
(*)
0.06%
(*)
0.11%


(*)
(*)
(*)
(*)
(*)
(*)
(*)
(*)
(*)
(*)
(*)
0.16%


0.06%
0.08%
0.02%
0.16%


0.04%
(*)
(*)
(*)
0.07%
(*)
(*)
0.27%


Total Just
Value
(Millions of Dollars)

$54.0


$462.0
$540.3
$1,002.4

$4.2
$685.0
$689.2


0.14%


1.24%
1.45%
2.69%

0.01%
1.84%
1.85%


$100.9 0.27%


$6,219.5 16.66%


(*)
$4.3
(*)
(*)
(*)
(*)
(*)
$22.1
(*)
$42.5


(*)
(*)
(*)
(*)
(*)
(*)
(*)
(*)
(*)
(*)
(*)
$61.1


$22.1
$28.1
$7.9
$58.1


$14.5
(*)
(*)
(*)
$25.4
(*)
(*)
$100.1


()
0.01%
(*)
(*)
(*)
(*)
(*)
0.06%
(*)
0.11%


(*)
(*)
(*)
(*)
(*)
(*)
(*)
(*)
(*)
(*)
(*)
0.16%


0.06%
0.08%
0.02%
0.16%


0.04%
(*)
(*)
(*)
0.07%
(*)
(*)
0.27%


Nonmetropolitian Area Total


% of Average Relative
State Age Age
Index


25 0.84


17 0.58


$261.6 0.70%


$261.8 0.70%







4. Housing Affordability

Douglas White, Florida Housing Data
Clearinghouse, Shimberg Center,
University of Florida
Marc T Smith, Ph.D., Shimberg
Center, University of Florida


4.1 Introduction

The affordability of housing is an
important issue nationally and in the
state of Florida. Households are
concerned about it because affordability
affects their ability to become a
homeowner, as well as the size and
amenities of the home they are able to
purchase. Real estate salespersons and
other industry participants also are
concerned, because the number of
households able to afford the purchase
of a home is an important determinant
of single-family sales activity in their local
markets. Housing affordability also has
become an important public policy issue,
as home ownership is viewed as being an
important goal for both individual and
societal reasons.
Three factors are the primary deter-
minants of the affordability of housing.
These are household income, housing
prices, and mortgage rates. For a house-
hold considering homeownership, an
additional factor is the rate of apprecia-
tion in housing prices. This chapter be-
gins with a discussion of affordability
using a homeownership cost index mea-
sure.


4.2 Housing Affordability
Index

One measure of housing affordability
is the cost of homeownership, commonly
conveyed through housing affordability
indices. These indices generally indicate


that affordability increased substantially
toward the end of the last decade,
primarily as a result of lower interest rates
during that period, but has lessened
through the beginning of the current
decade as a result of rising housing prices.
A housing affordability index for an
area brings together the price and the
income elements that contribute to
housing affordability. The most
common index construction method is
that used by the National Association of
Realtors (NAR). The NAR index
measures the ability of the median
income household in an area to afford a
median priced house. In addition to the
median income and median house price
in an area, index construction requires
the current mortgage interest rate,
assumptions about the down payment
required to purchase the median price
home, and the maximum percentage of
household income that can be spent on
housing. An index of 100 indicates the
typical (median) family in the area has
sufficient income to purchase a single-
family home selling at the median price.1
Median house prices are calculated from
the DOR county property appraiser
datasets. Median household incomes are
purchased from Claritas.
Although important, median sale
prices in a county or MSA do not alone
determine housing affordability. A
second important factor is the income
of area residents. The highest household
incomes in Florida are generally in the
coastal counties that also contain many
high priced housing units. However,
median household incomes and single-
family house prices in an area are only
moderately correlated which can lead
to significant differences in housing
affordability across counties and MSAs.


Affordability indices are calculated by NAR only for the nine largest metropolitan areas in Florida. Moreover,
most of these MSAs are recent additions to the report, and thus provide little historical information on how
housing affordability has changed over time and across counties. In addition, the affordability indices published
by NAR are based only on homes that have sold through the use of a Multiple Listing Service. Thus, the home
sales used to calculate the median sale price may not be representative of all housing stock in the area.








'^The I1

U-ae o Foria'


Hous^Win


*2004


Our index construction method can
be represented by the following formula:

MAedian Family Income X 100
Affordability Index =Qua I x 100c
Qualifying Income

Qualifying income is defined as the
income needed to qualify for a mortgage
to finance an existing median-priced
home. As an example, the median
household income in Alachua County in
2002 was $34,900, the median 2002
sales price of a single-family home was
$126,000, and the 30-year mortgage
interest rate of 6.54 percent2 yields a
mortgage constant of 0.006345. The
calculated affordability index is 95.73:


$34,900
4x 12(0.95x $126,000) x 0.006345
$34,900
$36,458
=95.73%
The denominator is the annual
mortgage payment, multiplied by 4,
because the income needed to qualify for
a 5 percent down, 6.54-percent, monthly
payment loan is assumed to be four times
the annual mortgage payment. This is
equivalent to a household spending 25
percent of their monthly income on
mortgage costs, and is consistent with the
qualifying ratio used by residential
mortgage lenders. The calculated index
of 95.73 indicates that median household
income in the area is 4.27% below the
amount typically needed to qualify for
the loan. The higher the calculated
affordability index, the easier it is for a
household in the area with median
income to purchase a median-priced
home, and the lower the affordability
index, the harder it is for a household


with the median income to purchase a
median priced home.3
We calculate affordability indices
(Table 4-1) for all counties in Florida and
for the years for which we have sufficient
data (at least 25 sales each year, as the
sales provide the basis for the calculation
of a median sales price of a home). Our
index calculations differ from those of the
NAR because we use the property
appraiser data as the source for home sales
transaction prices rather than the
Multiple Listing ServiceTM used by the
Realtors, and our median income is
household rather than family income.
Our numbers are therefore not directly
comparable, but do give an indication
of relative affordability across the state.
Due to the manner in which Claritas
calculates the median household income,
the county-specific indices cannot be
directly compared year to year, but the
overall trends in the counties can be
discussed. As can be seen in Table 4.1
the number of counties with an index
value below 100 totaled eighteen in 1995
and declined to thirteen in 1998.
However, after 1998 the number of
counties with an index value below 100
started to rise, and twenty-three counties
fell in this category in 2002. As would
be expected, the number of counties with
a value above 150 fell from seventeen in
1995 to 12 in 2002. These numbers
point to a lessening of housing
affordability in Florida in 2002.
The things that drive affordability are
the cost of a home and income. The cost
is driven by two factors, interest rates and
sales price. While interest rates in 2002
continued to be at historic lows, and did
decrease between 2001 and 2002 from
6.97% to 6.54%, the median sales price
of homes across Florida continued to rise.


The annual interest rates are an average of the monthly 30-year mortgage rate found in the FRED,II economic
database from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, and can be obtained from the following URL: http://
r.*. i i 11* i i- I I. 1 1 I G/.The mortgage constant is calculated using this interest rate.
After several comments about last years Affordability Index, we have changed our down payment assumption to 5
percent instead of the 20 percent used in the past. It is believed that this change better reflects what is occurring in
Florida's housing market. Please note, that this effectively increases the required qualifying income, and will lower
housing affordability as compared to last year's report.







The increase in sales price offset and over
took any benefit from the decrease in
interest rates (see Chapter 5 for a more
detailed discussion of home prices in
Florida). While housing prices were
rising, income in Florida remained
relatively constant. According to data
available from the Bureau of Economic
Analysis, per capital income in Florida
grew by only $500 between 2001 and
2002. This slow growth in income and
fast growth in housing prices is making
housing less affordable in Florida.
In interpreting the affordability
indices for each county, several caveats
should be considered. First, as a result
of the limited sales transactions in some
smaller counties, the median sale price
may vary considerably from year to year.
This fluctuation in the estimated median
house price produces an exaggerated
variability in the calculated affordability
index. Second, the calculation of the
index using median house prices and
incomes may mask the distribution of
affordability across the various income


brackets within a county or MSA. For
example, if house prices in a county tend
to be tightly distributed around their
median value, while incomes are more
widely dispersed, then affordability
problems will exist at the lower income
ranges that are not identified by the
affordability index. Thus, standard
indices based on median house prices and
median incomes are only one measure
of housing affordability. What the
affordability indices provide is an
indication of the relative change in
affordability within counties over time,
and the relative affordability of housing
across counties.








The State of Florida's Housing, 2004


Table. 1 outyAfsilt Inde


Major Metro Areas

Fort Lauderdale, FL MSA

Jacksonville, FL MSA




Miami, FL MSA

Orlando, FL MSA




Tampa-St. Petersburg-
Clearwater, FL MSA


West Palm Beach-
Boca Raton, FL MSA

Remaining Metro Areas

Daytona Beach, FL MSA


Fort Myers-
Cape Coral, FL MSA

Fort Pierce-
Port St. Lucie, FL MSA


Fort Walton Beach, FL MSA

Gainesville, FL MSA

Lakeland-Winter
Haven, FL MSA

Melbourne-Titusville-


County


Broward

Clay
Duval
Nassau
Saint Johns

Miami-Dade

Lake
Orange
Osceola
Seminole


Hernando
Hillsborough
Pasco
Pinellas


Palm Beach


Flagler
Volusia


1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002


NA NA NA NA 87.26 NA 78.69 82.66

116.53 124.62 127.95 133.93 122.58 116.30 127.72 119.04
NA NA 118.83 126.99 122.94 114.12 119.82 118.52
107.32 100.46 95.98 99.67 90.97 87.85 89.95 84.59
112.23 124.41 121.46 133.74 126.39 125.25 143.83 148.02

70.72 77.39 76.32 81.67 78.90 68.22 74.95 78.21

89.92 88.27 89.37 88.56 80.37 74.95 82.62 81.01
104.65 107.06 109.65 114.14 110.21 100.85 109.76 107.26
99.13 104.39 103.06 100.13 92.04 82.93 91.88 92.67
168.96 189.92 187.83 200.90 197.26 186.83 202.99 180.03


112.99 111.40 120.79 122.93 117.35 109.79 124.16 119.66
100.74 106.03 108.05 115.49 111.87 102.86 119.36 115.88
104.08 109.20 115.45 120.76 111.75 105.67 103.64 103.28
95.64 102.96 110.99 116.73 110.06 101.46 110.13 108.58


88.23 97.55 97.35 113.81 108.35 94.51


95.21 91.01


81.25 99.48 113.38 115.92 101.83 91.98 115.90 111.48
99.72 101.33 106.74 112.88 104.12 99.51 97.10 91.84


93.46 95.97 93.89 104.04


Martin
Saint Lucie

Okaloosa

Alachua


Polk


Palm Bay, FL MSA Brevard

Naples, FL MSA Collier

Ocala, FL MSA Marion

Panama City, FL MSA Bay

Pensacola, FL MSA Escambia
Santa Rosa

Punta Gorda, FL MSA Charlotte

Sarasota-Bradenton, FL MSA Manatee
Sarasota

Tallahassee, FL MSA Gadsden
Leon

Vero Beach, FL MSA Indian River


97.04 88.78


97.03 95.65


86.00 88.24 87.45 95.84 91.27 82.24 94.53 84.77
89.92 90.91 90.82 91.25 84.70 77.28 86.05 81.60

112.41 118.77 118.46 121.12 119.85 114.76 134.17 117.37

91.84 94.46 94.01 96.63 91.81 87.79 101.35 95.73


108.00 110.53 116.86 126.72 116.76 107.87 119.47 117.68


119.87 120.84 121.59 120.82 117.10 110.55 118.92 119.10

69.92 80.09 80.15 81.70 78.00 64.81 86.07 79.25

104.76 105.75 108.43 113.15 111.13 106.25 113.39 94.81

110.76 117.07 115.55 117.52 113.67 106.23 112.81 107.18

131.85 124.22 116.35 121.93 114.99 113.13 122.38 116.73
90.53 95.30 96.02 96.60 91.78 86.51 93.83 93.57

101.25 109.53 110.76 112.89 111.79 89.53 107.15 93.21

92.05 94.44 95.02 100.44 92.49 85.03 96.20 85.00
71.80 74.25 76.20 83.30 76.62 72.20 76.92 74.60

106.74 113.72 101.34 108.88 112.25 119.35 121.00 118.72
103.65 109.01 117.35 117.03 118.38 115.05 127.56 119.51

123.08 123.06 129.92 145.60 135.28 112.70 124.90 120.26










Table 4.1s. w C Affrdbt Ie (


County


Nonmetro Areas


Northwest Nonmetropolitan Area Calhoun
Franklin
Gulf
Holmes
Jackson
Jefferson
Liberty
Wakulla
Walton
Washington

Northeast Nonmetropolitan Area Baker
Bradford
Columbia
Dixie
Gilchrist
Hamilton
Lafayette
Levy
Madison
Suwannee
Taylor
Union

Central Nonmetropolitan Area Citrus
Putnam
Sumter

South Nonmetropolitan Area DeSoto
Glades
Hardee
Hendry
Highlands
Monroe
Okeechobee


1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002



136.18 131.20 148.81 166.71 132.09 132.53 154.79 189.95
92.47 67.98 90.08 84.63 63.42 47.96 54.36 52.52
150.07 159.08 140.67 121.56 78.13 67.19 68.38 58.69
150.02 140.08 155.74 157.04 133.85 129.06 158.65 156.94
131.05 131.53 124.74 132.00 127.49 111.80 125.01 134.99
169.54 141.13 127.28 160.72 123.79 153.51 133.75 139.23
NA NA NA NA 232.43 NA NA NA
111.77 103.96 107.12 111.53 109.87 99.36 115.72 105.04
81.42 75.36 71.73 71.63 63.57 58.56 66.98 51.59
152.27 118.66 136.15 143.81 143.22 120.15 148.98 156.07

143.45 147.87 137.28 143.22 135.04 141.26 152.06 134.03
150.54 144.05 154.36 155.61 140.25 164.54 180.62 170.64
120.42 124.21 120.57 125.81 110.13 117.87 134.95 122.87
NA 122.21 NA 107.00 102.99 74.89 108.00 86.39
137.86 120.23 99.91 119.09 106.03 102.25 117.95 115.54
155.97 NA 132.96 116.75 118.31 104.35 128.52 124.90
NA NA NA NA 140.60 NA 172.31 NA
111.27 113.74 110.50 137.01 111.41 103.14 130.63 116.86
182.97 138.92 141.52 142.34 134.56 141.53 157.01 155.49
125.97 121.36 115.28 126.11 115.38 113.58 118.11 115.23
152.07 146.50 162.94 156.55 136.57 119.22 136.51 137.53
NA NA NA NA NA NA 148.63 NA

112.86 117.74 125.85 118.34 109.36 107.35 121.33 112.00
131.23 133.22 143.86 143.32 125.01 117.40 138.95 139.94
150.65 81.30 142.91 78.44 67.80 62.04 67.75 61.60

142.17 131.88 143.08 124.35 116.30 117.59 137.96 153.99
111.79 152.81 139.75 121.85 100.27 110.24 138.37 129.65
171.26 169.10 171.75 167.28 142.54 132.65 167.30 195.06
128.33 126.74 142.63 160.20 132.90 134.85 170.87 189.40
111.25 113.89 120.27 133.72 121.04 122.51 137.89 145.45
49.10 59.87 54.86 60.05 57.64 51.83 56.17 51.90
123.29 130.95 122.91 129.43 122.34 122.90 136.38 130.73







'^The I1

U-ae o Foria'

Hous^Win


*2004


Table 4.2 ranks the affordability of
each county. Twenty-three Florida
counties had an affordability index below
100 in 2002. Six major metropolitan
counties are included among these
fourteen counties, Osceola (92.67), Palm
Beach (91.01), Nassau (84.59), Broward
(82.66), Lake (81.01), and Miami-Dade
(78.21). Eleven counties from the
remaining metro countries also show up
among these counties, Alachua (95.73),
Lee (95.65), Marion (94.81), Santa Rosa
(93.57), Charlotte (93.21), Volusia
(91.84), Manatee (85.00), Saint Lucie
(81.60), Martin (84.77), Collier (79.25),
and Sarasota (74.60). The five least
affordable counties in 2002 are Walton
(51.59), Monroe (51.90), Franklin
(52.52), Gulf (58.69), and Sumter
(61.60). The fact that small, rural
counties have the least affordable housing
prices at first look may be rather
surprising. However, most of these
counties are located in Florida's
Panhandle and on the coast. These
counties contain a large number of
seasonal and second/vacation homes,
which often are located on or near the
beach. This prime location greatly
increases the value and sales price of these
homes, and as can be seen in table 4.3,
in these counties, the median just value
of homes that are not owner-occupied
have a higher value than owner-occupied
homes. We feel that the sale of these non-
owner-occupied homes explains the low
affordability of these Gulf counties.
At the other extreme, the most
affordable counties are generally rural
counties in the interior of the state,
mostly in the north part of the state.
Hardee County is Florida's most
affordable county in 2002 (index =
195.06). The other top 10 high
affordability index counties in 2002
include Calhoun (189.95), Hendry
(189.40), Seminole (180.03), Bradford


(170.64), Holmes (156.94), Washington
(156.07), Madison (155.49), DeSoto
(153.99), and Saint Johns (148.02).
These counties, with the exception of St.
Johns (coastal) and Seminole (part of the
Orlando MSA), are inland, rural, and
characterized by relatively low median
house prices. The two exceptions, St.
Johns and Seminole, have the highest and
third highest median household income
in 2002, which drives their affordability.
It should be emphasized that most of the
counties with the highest affordability
indices also had fewer than 300
transactions in 2002. The small number
of transactions is not surprising in small
counties, but may be indicative of the
level of competition in the market and
therefore the pressure on housing prices.
One problem with examining the
affordability of housing using this index
is that it only captures what is happening
at the median income level and hides
affordability problems at the lower
income levels. Table 4.4 examines how
the qualifying income compares to an
hourly wage (assuming 2000 hours
worked a year), and how that hourly wage
compares to the state median hourly
wage for five different occupations. The
2002 state median hourly wages come
from the Bureau of Labor Statistics4 and
are as follows, firefighters $16.50, police
and sheriff's patrol officers $19.96,
elementary school teachers, except special
education $19.68, nursing aides,
orderlies, and attendants $9.24, and
secretaries, except legal, medical, and
executive $11.29. As can be seen in table
4.4, even in those counties with a high
affordability ranking, important
occupations such as firefighters or police
officers may have trouble purchasing a
home.


the 2002 Occupational wage data is available from the Bureau of Labor Statistics at the following url: http:
www.bls.gov/oes/oesdl.htm










2002 2002
Affordability 2002 Affordability 2002
Index Rank Index Rank

Hardee 195.06 Most Citrus 112.00 35
Affordable
Flagler 111.48 36

Calhoun 189.95 2 Pinellas 108.58 37
Hendry 189.40 3 Orange 107.26 38
Seminole 180.03 4 Bay 107.18 39
Bradford 170.64 5 Wakulla 105.04 40
Holmes 156.94 6 Pasco 103.28 41
Washington 156.07 7 Alachua 95.73 42
Madison 155.49 8 Lee 95.65 43
DeSoto 153.99 9 Marion 94.81 44
Saint Johns 148.02 10 Santa Rosa 93.57 45
Highlands 145.45 11 Charlotte 93.21 46
Putnam 139.94 12 Osceola 92.67 47
Jefferson 139.23 13 Volusia 91.84 48
Taylor 137.53 14 Palm Beach 91.01 49
Jackson 134.99 15 Dixie 86.39 50
Baker 134.03 16 Manatee 85.00 51
Okeechobee 130.73 17 Martin 84.77 52
Glades 129.65 18 Nassau 84.59 53
Hamilton 124.90 19 Broward 82.66 54
Columbia 122.87 20 Saint Lucie 81.60 55
Indian River 120.26 21 Lake 81.01 56
Hernando 119.66 22 Collier 79.25 57
Leon 119.51 23 Miami-Dade 78.21 58
Brevard 119.10 24 Sarasota 74.60 59
Clay 119.04 25 Sumter 61.60 60
Gadsden 118.72 26 Gulf 58.69 61
Duval 118.52 27 Franklin 52.52 62
Polk 117.68 28 Monroe 51.90 63
Okaloosa 117.37 29 Walton 51.59 Least
Levy 116.86 30 Affordable
Escambia 116.73 31 Lafayette NA NA
Hillsborough 115.88 32 Liberty NA NA
Gilchrist 115.54 33 Union NA NA
Suwannee 115.23 34







The State of Florida's Housing, 2004



Owner Occupied Not Owner Occupied Difference Between Owner Occupied
and Non Owner Occupied
Mean Just Median Mean Just Median Mean Just Value Median Just Value
Value Just Value Value Just Value Difference Difference

Walton County $142,288 $84,565 $260,321 $156,434 -$118,034 -$71,870
Franklin County $141,508 $75,426 $237,210 $134,134 -$95,702 -$58,708
Gulf County $117,988 $79,370 $171,373 $110,614 -$53,385 -$31,244
Collier County $351,454 $201,056 $427,695 $224,391 -$76,241 -$23,336
Monroe County $372,450 $274,841 $415,430 $292,458 -$42,979 -$17,617
Lee County $174,926 $119,970 $221,630 $126,580 -$46,703 -$6,610
Dixie County $57,989 $44,350 $66,243 $49,100 -$8,254 -$4,750
Osceola County $111,572 $98,000 $111,195 $99,100 $377 -$1,100
Nassau County $164,732 $126,897 $179,445 $125,795 -$14,713 $1,103
Flagler County $131,341 $105,828 $129,530 $99,731 $1,811 $6,098
Holmes County $49,814 $43,647 $38,019 $32,679 $11,795 $10,968
Hardee County $54,009 $43,403 $37,480 $31,062 $16,529 $12,341
Washington County $53,250 $47,085 $40,798 $33,923 $12,451 $13,162
Highlands County $70,148 $59,831 $57,329 $46,176 $12,820 $13,655
Lafayette County $57,150 $53,579 $46,420 $39,829 $10,729 $13,750
Putnam County $75,194 $57,180 $61,352 $41,786 $13,842 $15,394
Madison County $51,523 $42,191 $37,979 $26,764 $13,544 $15,427
DeSoto County $73,114 $57,916 $51,920 $42,155 $21,194 $15,761
Orange County $145,984 $117,267 $130,872 $101,493 $15,111 $15,775
Bay County $98,850 $82,592 $88,020 $65,870 $10,831 $16,722
Charlotte County $139,546 $108,459 $125,625 $91,542 $13,921 $16,917
Manatee County $177,372 $138,862 $178,996 $121,740 -$1,624 $17,122
Calhoun County $46,774 $38,750 $28,898 $21,395 $17,876 $17,355
Liberty County $46,302 $37,593 $33,470 $20,219 $12,832 $17,374
Taylor County $58,481 $45,088 $46,397 $27,186 $12,084 $17,902
Volusia County $113,881 $93,598 $99,026 $75,376 $14,855 $18,222
Miami-Dade County $201,616 $145,140 $203,759 $126,911 -$2,142 $18,230
Sumter County $101,541 $99,760 $82,373 $81,180 $19,168 $18,580
St. Lucie County $103,291 $88,500 $90,518 $69,800 $12,773 $18,700
Santa Rosa County $117,116 $94,359 $95,374 $75,498 $21,742 $18,861
Hernando County $98,190 $87,154 $80,815 $67,745 $17,374 $19,409
Polk County $92,415 $80,690 $74,770 $61,200 $17,645 $19,490
Lake County $111,916 $101,553 $96,379 $81,923 $15,537 $19,630
Okeechobee County $81,751 $68,359 $59,390 $48,621 $22,361 $19,739
Hendry County $77,365 $60,590 $54,995 $40,610 $22,370 $19,980
Clay County $116,716 $99,433 $94,208 $79,343 $22,509 $20,090
Sarasota County $208,751 $134,700 $199,727 $114,600 $9,025 $20,100
Bradford County $69,470 $56,395 $51,841 $36,216 $17,629 $20,179
Citrus County $92,824 $76,400 $78,481 $56,200 $14,343 $20,200












Owner Occupied Not Owner Occupied Difference Between Owner Occupied
and Non Owner Occupied
Mean Just Median Mean Just Median Mean Just Value Median Just Value
Value Just Value Value Just Value Difference Difference

Hamilton County $54,213 $46,793 $34,821 $26,547 $19,392 $20,246
Gadsden County $61,600 $48,926 $39,247 $28,289 $22,353 $20,638
Gilchrist County $69,810 $62,512 $53,228 $41,646 $16,581 $20,866
Levy County $80,175 $67,424 $63,793 $46,430 $16,382 $20,994
Okaloosa County $115,142 $89,441 $105,449 $67,841 $9,694 $21,601
Marion County $90,573 $79,120 $73,201 $57,452 $17,371 $21,668
Palm Beach County $240,250 $150,022 $316,849 $127,804 -$76,599 $22,219
Broward County $192,533 $155,380 $189,610 $132,900 $2,923 $22,480
Escambia County $88,260 $74,390 $65,174 $51,660 $23,085 $22,730
Suwannee County $71,598 $63,551 $52,595 $40,779 $19,003 $22,772
Jackson County $61,830 $50,157 $37,653 $27,328 $24,177 $22,830
Jefferson County $61,596 $53,240 $36,597 $30,125 $24,999 $23,115
Brevard County $120,675 $96,460 $95,279 $73,140 $25,396 $23,320
Glades County $72,465 $64,001 $49,246 $40,410 $23,219 $23,591
Pinellas County $148,235 $111,600 $126,054 $87,500 $22,182 $24,100
Columbia County $76,701 $66,522 $53,353 $42,389 $23,347 $24,133
Indian River County $185,103 $101,265 $224,062 $76,860 -$38,959 $24,405
Baker County $80,415 $73,007 $56,104 $48,354 $24,311 $24,653
Pasco County $102,051 $88,488 $81,485 $63,152 $20,566 $25,336
Seminole County $149,756 $127,133 $118,864 $99,436 $30,892 $27,697
Hillsborough County $134,971 $106,977 $97,313 $77,833 $37,657 $29,145
Union County $60,828 $55,076 $34,898 $25,821 $25,930 $29,256
Wakulla County $90,520 $85,116 $70,410 $55,688 $20,110 $29,428
St. Johns County $225,211 $160,930 $204,203 $130,290 $21,007 $30,640
Martin County $238,207 $156,900 $286,073 $121,825 -$47,866 $35,075
Alachua County $115,534 $99,300 $74,922 $63,600 $40,612 $35,700
Duval County $127,380 $101,878 $86,463 $65,705 $40,917 $36,173
Leon County $125,886 $109,163 $83,025 $67,704 $42,861 $41,459







The State of Florida's Housing, 2004


2002 Hourly Fire Police Elementary Nursing Secretaries,
Qualifying Wage fighters and school aides, except
Income Needed sheriff's teachers, orderlies, legal,
2002 for patrol except and medical,
Rank Qualifying officers special attendants and
Income education executive
Most
Affordable Hardee $17,216 $8.61 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
2 Calhoun $16,102 $8.05 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
3 Hendry $21,990 $11.00 Yes Yes Yes No Yes
4 Seminole $32,407 $16.20 Yes Yes Yes No No
5 Bradford $21,701 $10.85 Yes Yes Yes No Yes
6 Holmes $15,191 $7.60 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
7 Washington $17,361 $8.68 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
8 Madison $16,782 $8.39 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
9 DeSoto $23,133 $11.57 Yes Yes Yes No No
10 Saint Johns $36,226 $18.11 No Yes Yes No No
11 Highlands $20,833 $10.42 Yes Yes Yes No Yes
12 Putnam $21,701 $10.85 Yes Yes Yes No Yes
13 Jefferson $23,148 $11.57 Yes Yes Yes No No
14 Taylor $19,676 $9.84 Yes Yes Yes No Yes
15 Jackson $20,370 $10.19 Yes Yes Yes No Yes
16 Baker $26,794 $13.40 Yes Yes Yes No No
17 Okeechobee $23,871 $11.94 Yes Yes Yes No No
18 Glades $20,558 $10.28 Yes Yes Yes No Yes
19 Hamilton $16,927 $8.46 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
20 Columbia $25,115 $12.56 Yes Yes Yes No No
21 Indian River $37,037 $18.52 No Yes Yes No No
22 Hernando $26,620 $13.31 Yes Yes Yes No No
23 Leon $36,458 $18.23 No Yes Yes No No
24 Brevard $34,577 $17.29 No Yes Yes No No
25 Clay $39,453 $19.73 No Yes No No No
26 Gadsden $24,016 $12.01 Yes Yes Yes No No
27 Duval $36,892 $18.45 No Yes Yes No No
28 Polk $30,237 $15.12 Yes Yes Yes No No
29 Okaloosa $35,272 $17.64 No Yes Yes No No
30 Levy $23,148 $11.57 Yes Yes Yes No No
31 Escambia $30,194 $15.10 Yes Yes Yes No No
32 Hillsborough $40,219 $20.11 No No No No No
33 Gilchrist $26,041 $13.02 Yes Yes Yes No No
34 Suwannee $22,714 $11.36 Yes Yes Yes No No
35 Citrus $24,595 $12.30 Yes Yes Yes No No
36 Flagler $34,722 $17.36 No Yes Yes No No
37 Pinellas $37,905 $18.95 No Yes Yes No No


5 Is the median 2002 hourly Wage greater or equal to that required for qualifying income, yes or no?










Table 4.4 Comparo oIIian Hul W to Q ly I (


2002
Qualifying
Income


2002
Rank


Orange
Bay
Wakulla
Pasco
Alachua
Lee
Marion
Santa Rosa
Charlotte
Osceola
Volusia
Palm Beach
Dixie
Manatee
Martin
Nassau
Broward
Saint Lucie
Lake
Collier
Miami-Dade
Sarasota
Sumter
Gulf
Franklin
Monroe


Least
Affordable
NA


Walton
Lafayette


NA Liberty
NA Union


$44,270
$34,143
$38,628
$35,850
$36,458
$43,836
$33,275
$44,849
$35,011
$37,615
$38,245
$57,002
$22,945
$49,189
$53,529
$50,781
$53,529
$44,415
$38,194
$72,337
$50,636
$57,870
$41,059
$47,743
$57,146
$94,038


$62,210
NA
NA
NA


Hourly
Wage
Needed
for
Qualifying
Income

$22.14
$17.07
$19.31
$17.93
$18.23
$21.92
$16.64
$22.42
$17.51
$18.81
$19.12
$28.50
$11.47
$24.59
$26.76
$25.39
$26.76
$22.21
$19.10
$36.17
$25.32
$28.93
$20.53
$23.87
$28.57
$47.02


$31.10
NA
NA
NA


Fire
fighters





No
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
Yes
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
No


No
No
No
No


Police
and
sheriff's
patrol
officers


No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
No
No
No
No
No
Yes
No
No
No
No
No
No
No


No
No
No
No


Elementary
school
teachers,
except
special
education

No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
No
No
No
No
No
Yes
No
No
No
No
No
No
No


No
No
No
No


Nursing
aides,
orderlies,
and
attendants


No
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
No


No
No
No
No


Secretaries,
except
legal,
medical,
and
executive

No
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
No


No
No
No
No







'^The I1

U-ae o Foria'

Hous^Win


*2004


5. Florida House

Price Trends:

Market Comparisons

And Forecasts

Dean H. Gatzlaff, Ph.D., FSU Real
Estate Center, The Florida State
University

5.1 Introduction

Thirty-year fixed mortgage rates
continued to decline from an average of
6.54 percent in 2002 to 5.82 percent in
2003 (Federal Reserve Bulletin, 2004).
This, coupled with a relatively stable state
economy, continued to fuel rapid house
price increases across the state of Florida
in 2003. Estimates indicate that, on
average, single-family house prices in
Florida increased by 9.04 percent in
2003, down slightly from 9.31 percent
the year prior. In comparison, single-
family house prices in the United States
during this same period were reported
by the Office of Federal Housing
Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO, 2003)
to have increased by 5.56 percent. In
only Rhode Island (11.81%) and
California (9.44%) did statewide house
price appreciation exceed Florida's rate.
Interestingly, these rapid house price
increases were achieved during a period
of historically low general inflation
(1.88%), resulting in a 2003 inflation-
adjusted appreciation rate for single-
family homes in Florida of 7.16 percent.
On average, house prices have increased
almost 7.0 percent per year over and


above the general rate of inflation over
the last three years. This represents the
largest inflation-adjusted rate increase
during any three-year period recorded,
including the high appreciation period
of the 1970s. Estimates indicate that
questions regarding the U.S. economy
and the uncertainties associated with the
war in Iraq have not slowed recent house
price appreciation.
During the 2001 to 2003 period
house price increases have exceeded
general inflation in each of the state's 201
Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs).
Preliminary estimates indicate that, on
average, house prices in Florida have
increased by 8.75 percent annually since
2001. When compared to the 1.94
percent average annual rate of general
inflation over this same period, average
real house price appreciation is found to
be 6.81 percent. Although mortgage
interest rates are expected to rise from
their current levels causing appreciation
rates to diminish during the latter half
of this decade, continued population
growth and supply limitations will likely
moderate this effect. The persistence in
the 2001 to 2003 price trends has
resulted in an upward revision to our
previously reported Florida house price
appreciation forecasts. On average,
Florida house prices are forecast to
increase by about 6.0 percent per year
during the 2004 to 2010 period, resulting
in an average annual increase of 6.9
percent for the decade.
The purpose of this report is to
document single-family house price
movements for the state of Florida.2 The


Vero Beach MSA was designated as an MSA in 2004 and is not included in this section of the report.
To avoid the problems associated with inferring price appreciation from the changes in median sale prices, (e.g.,
median sale prices are reported by the National Association of Realtors) estimates of house price appreciation are
constructed using a "repeat-sale" method. This method has been shown to produce reliable estimates of appreciation
while holding "constant" any changes in house characteristics that have occurred over time. Implementation of
the method requires actual transaction data from individual properties that have sold more than once; thus, the
index is applicable to existing house prices. Note that each Florida county property appraiser retains the two most
recent transaction prices, if sold twice, for each property in their county. Unfortunately, updating the index is
complicated because the entire index is "revised" when new sale data are added each year, and older sale information
for properties selling a third time are deleted. The most reliable index estimate occurs in the period spanned by the
most representative sample of repeat sales. In updating the indices, the average holding period is assumed to be
ten years and a final index level is reported for 1994. Index levels after 1994 will be subsequently revised as
additional sale data become available.







report is organized as
follows. In the next
section, Section 5.2,
Florida-wide single-
family house price indices
are reported for the 1971
to 2003 period
(preliminary estimates for
2003) and compared
with changes in the
consumer price index
(CPI-U), the broad stock
market index (S&P500),
and a long-term
government bond index.
In Section 5.3, relative
house price appreciation
rates in Florida's 11
planning districts from
1981 to 2003 are
compared and
contrasted. In addition,
house price movements


e 6: 6y 6f -a H e *e n H g R s I n 6
S ele Ase Clse (171203


1971-1980
1981-1990
1991-2000


Annual Mean
Annual Mean
Annual Mean


1971-2000 Annual Mean
1971-2000 Std. Dev.


2001-2003
2003-prelim.


Annual Mean
Annual Mean


Nominal Real
House House
Price General Price
Apprec. Inflation Apprec.

9.52 8.11 1.41
3.01 4.51 -1.50
2.97 2.76 0.21

5.17 5.13 0.04
5.12 3.27 3.54

8.75 1.94 6.81
9.04 1.88 7.16


Nominal Nominal Nominal
Returns to Returns to Returns to
Housing Stocks Bonds


14.52
8.01
7.97


10.34
14.63
18.39


4.11
14.51
11.00


10.17 14.45 9.87
n.a. 16.45 12.30

13.75 -1.76 7.73
14.04 28.70 1.45


Note: 2003 values are preliminary. House price appreciation rates are derived from the Florida House Price Index (all counties)
for years 1981 to 2003, and from the Florida House Price Index (six largest MSAs) for years 1971 to 1980. General inflation is
derived from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index (CPI-U). Returns to housing assume a five-percent long-run
dividend to housing from implicit rent. Returns to stocks (S&P500) and bonds (Long-Term Government Bonds) are as reported
by Ibbotson Associates (Stocks, Bonds, Bills and Inflation, 2004).


in the larger


urban areas are compared to the smaller,
more rural, areas. A comparison of
relative house price appreciation among
the 20 Florida MSAs is presented in
Section 5.4. Section 5.5 reports average
annual house price movements from
1996 to 2002 for individual counties
where sufficient data are available.
County transaction data were aggregated
where adequate data were not available
to provide reasonably reliable results.
Projected house price appreciation rates
are reported for the 2001 to 2010 period
in Section 5.6.


5.2 Statewide Measures of
Single-Family House Prices in
Florida

The annual movement in the overall
price of single-family housing in Florida
for the last 30 years is summarized in
Figure 5.1 and Table 5.1. Figure 5.1
indicates annual house price appreciation
in the state of Florida climbed as high as
17.5 percent in 1978 and experienced
declines of nearly 1 percent in 1977 and
1991. During the 1970s, annual
appreciation rates averaged 9.52 percent
statewide. When contrasted with a
general inflation rate of 8.11 percent,
inflation-adjusted house prices increased,
on average, 1.41 percent per year (0.0952
- 0.0811 = 0.0141).







'^The I1

U-ae o Foria'

Hous^Win


*2004


House prices in the 1980s were
characterized by negative inflation-
adjusted house price changes. With the
exception of 1986, house price
appreciation was less than general
inflation, averaging -1.50 percent for the
period. Annual house price increases
averaged only 3.01 percent during the
1981 to 1990 period. Estimates for the
1990s indicate that this characteristic
continued through the first half of the
1990s, with a reversal of this trend
occurring in the mid-1990s. House price
increases generally matched general
inflation during the 1994 to 1996 period.
In contrast, annual house price
appreciation is estimated to have
consistently exceeded general inflation
for the last seven years (since 1997).
Preliminary estimates indicate that house
prices have increased, on average, by 8.75
percent from 2001 to 2003. At the same
time general inflation has increased at an
annual rate of only 1.94 percent, yielding
historically high inflation-adjusted
annual appreciation estimates of 6.81


percent during the period.
Over the 30-year period nominal
house price returns (price movement,
plus implied rent) averaged
approximately 10.17 percent per year.3
This rate compares favorably to average
annual rates of 14.45 and 9.87 percent
for stocks (S&P 500) and bonds (long-
term government bonds), respectively. A
wide deviation in relative returns between
single-family housing, stocks, and bonds
can be seen in the 10-year summaries of
the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s. It is
interesting to note the preliminary 2003
annual return is 14.04 percent for
housing, compared to 28.70 and 1.45
percent for stocks and bonds,
respectively.

5.3 District-Level Measures of
Single-Family House Price
Appreciation in Florida

A comparison of annual appreciation
rates for housing located in large
metropolitan areas designated as


I Figure 5.1: Floridag n a l -e P e a A gg *


2,50




20
2,00


20,0

15,0 -

10.0 I

S.o d

a


*- '- 1 1 -G rM .

Annual Apprec -o-- Moue Plce Index + Inlalion
Note: 2003 values are preliminary. House price appreciation rates are derived from the Florida House Price Index (all
counties) for years 1981 to 2003, and from the Florida House Price Index (six largest MSAs) for years 1971 to 1980.
General inflation is derived from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index (CPI-U).

3 This rate includes an implied rent of 5 percent that is necessary to compute for homeownership. The implicit
rent, or dividend, received by households due to homeownership is generally assumed by urban and financial
economists to be approximately 4 to 6 percent. Although the dividend for rental housing is generally in the range
of 7 to 10 percent, occupants of owner-occupied housing generally consume more (larger) housing relative to the
rent the home would command in an open market. Thus, the implied dividend (net rent / market value) they
receive for renting, implicitly from themselves, is less as a percent of the value of the asset than traditional rental
housing.







Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) by
the U.S. Bureau of the Census versus
housing located outside of MSA
designated areas is charted in Figure 5.2.
Single-family housing located in the non-
MSA counties consistently experienced
higher rates of appreciation from 1986
to 1998. More recently, from 1999 to
2002, house prices have increased at a
greater rate in the MSA-designated
counties than in the smaller areas.
Preliminary estimates indicate this trend
continues for the fifth year into 2003.
Figure 5.3 charts the average annual
house price appreciation for two decades
(1981-90 and 1991-2000) and for the
first three years of the 2000s (2001-2003)
for each of the planning districts.4
Statewide annual house price
appreciation averaged just over 3.0
percent both decades. However, it is clear
from Figure 5.3 that in general South
Florida (i.e., Districts 8, 9, 10, & 11)
experienced higher rates of appreciation
in the 1980s than North Florida
(Districts 1, 2, & 3). This trend then
reversed in the 1990s. Notably, average
annual appreciation rates in the 2000s
are dramatically higher than in either of
the two previous decades-a trend that
is forecasted later to moderate. In
addition, house appreciation in the South
Florida districts in general again outpaced
that in North Florida.


. .A C .... . .---. .A


10 0%
8.0%
6 0%
4.0%

2.0%

-2.0%
-4.0%

o q- q-- q-
OD C CD CO C CT
0^~ c 0^ 0 s ^ 0


&g 0 N
D 01 I
r- r- N M


Year

---- l MSAs Non-NMSA

Note: 2003 values are preliminary. House price appreciation rates for "All MSA" and "Non-MSA counties" are
derived from aggregate index of all 20 Florida MSAs and the aggregate index estimated for the counties not in any
of the 20 Florida MSAs, respectively.


",A .5 : A; Hice "


t4.D%

10 .0%
B.D%

4.D%
2.D%
0. l0%


7 T
z .D .0 1 V t


0 19B1-1980 0 19g9-200~ w2W1X-2X3

Note: District 1 (Bay, Escambia, Holmes, Okaloosa, Santa Rosa, Walton, and Washington Cos.), District 2 (Calhoun,
Franklin, Gadsden, Gulf, Jackson, Jefferson, Leon, Liberty, and Wakulla Cos.), District 3 (Alachua, Bradford,
Columbia, Dixie, Gilchrist, Hamilton, Lafayette, Madison, Suwannee, Taylor, and Union Cos.), District 4 (Baker,
Clay, [adeq. data not avail, for Duival], Nassau, Putnam, and St. Johns Cos.), District 5 (Citus, Levy, Marion, and
Sumter Cos.), District 6 (Brevard, Flagler, Lake, Orange, Osceola, Seminole, and Volusia Cos.), District 7 (De Soto,
Hardee, Highlands, Okeechobee, and Polk Cos.), District 8 (Hernando, Hillsborough, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas,
and Sarasota Cos.), District 9 (Charlotte, Collier, Glades, Hendry, and Lee Cos.), District 10 (Indian River, Martin,
Palm Beach, and St. Lucie Cos.), and District 11 (Broward, Dade, and Monroe Cos.)


The counties included in each of the eleven planning districts are noted in Table 14.








T h e

U-ae o Foria'


Hous^Win


*2004


Table 5.2 details the period trends in
appreciation across the districts of the
state. It is interesting to note that
Northeast Florida, West Florida and the
Tampa Bay area experienced high rates
of house price appreciation, relative to
the state in the early 1980s.
The second half of the 1980s was
marked by high rates of house price
appreciation in South Florida. These are
followed by high rates in West Florida,


Apalachee, and North Central districts
from 1991-1995. House price indices
are reported for each district in Table 5.3.5
In the late 1990s, appreciation rates in
the larger market districts of Northeast
Florida, Tampa Bay, and South Florida
exceeded other districts. Preliminary
estimates indicate that with the exception
of District 2, house price appreciation is
greatest in South Florida (e.g., Districts
8, 9, 10, and 11).


Tabe52:AvergeAnnua Pecntg gAppecato and Periodm Rakig
by Ditrc for SeecedPerid (191203


District

Florida (All Districts)
Florida (All MSAs)
Florida (All Non-MSA counties)
District 1: West Florida
District 2: Apalachee
District 3: North Central Florida
District 4: Northeast Florida
District 5: Withlacoochee
District 6: East Central Florida
District 7: Central Florida
District 8: Tampa Bay
District 9: Southwest Florida
District 10: Treasure Coast
District 11: South Florida


1981-85 1986-90 1991-95 1996-00 2001-03


3.43
3.44
3.31
4 -4
2.80
1.89
I:. 14
2.88
4.06
2.65
4 c/.
1.43
2.87
2.21


2.58
2.54
3.42
0.22
1.91
2.93
1.97
1.60
2.19
1.62
2.05
441
?.!'?


1.46
1.41
2.38
? ].4


2.19
0.95
1.03
2.05
1.45
0.33
0.67
2.53


8.75
8.78
8.16
4.89

6.88
8.00
6.21
7.28
4.86
8.16

9.30
1 I 1


Note: Estimates for 2003 are preliminary. Shaded areas denote top quartile ranking. District 1 (Bay, Escambia, Holmes, Okaloosa,
Santa Rosa, Walton, and Washington Cos.), District 2 (Calhoun, Franklin, Gadsden, Gulf, Jackson, Jefferson, Leon, Liberty, and Wakulla
Cos.), District 3 (Alachua, Bradford, Columbia, Dixie, Gilchrist, Hamilton, Lafayette, Madison, Suwannee, Taylor, and Union Cos.),
District 4 (Baker, Clay, [adeq. data not avail, for Duval], Nassau, Putnam, and St. Johns Cos.), District 5 (Citus, Levy, Marion, and
Sumter Cos.), District 6 (Brevard, Flagler, Lake, Orange, Osceola, Seminole, and Volusia Cos.), District 7 (De Soto, Hardee, Highlands,
Okeechobee, and Polk Cos.), District 8 (Hernando, Hillsborough, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas, and Sarasota Cos.), District 9 (Charlotte,
Collier, Glades, Hendry, and Lee Cos.), District 10 (Indian River, Martin, Palm Beach, and St. Lucie Cos.), and District 11 (Broward,
Dade, and Monroe Cos.)


Note that sufficient transaction data were not available to report 2002 appreciation estimates at the district, MSA,
and county level; however, preliminary statewide measures are estimated and reported.








Tabes .3 Anua Hos Prc Inie fo Flrd 66. tict (180202


All Non Dist. Dist. Dist.
MSA MSA 1 2 3


Dist. Dist. Dist.
5 6 7


Dist. Dist. Dist.
9 10 11


1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003


1.000 1.000
1.072 1.074
1.098 1.099
1.129 1.130
1.160 1.159
1.183 1.183
1.205 1.205
1.245 1.244
1.282 1.281
1.321 1.318
1.343 1.341
1.334 1.331
1.332 1.327
1.357 1.353
1.410 1.405
1.439 1.433
1.484 1.478
1.524 1.517
1.598 1.590
1.681 1.674
1.796 1.788
1.938 1.930
2.118 2.111
2.310 2.302


1.000
1.047
1.084
1.107
1.166
1.176
1.206
1.270
1.312
1.365
1.391
1.387
1.416
1.446
1.506
1.565
1.602
1.657
1.745
1.829
1.943
2.085
2.261
2.459


1.000
1.069
1.124
1.150
1.198
1.230
1.230
1.245
1.242
1.252
1.243
1.258
1.295
1.338
1.408
1.459
1.549
1.612
1.681
1.760
1.826
1.893
2.002
2.108


1.000 1.000
1.074 0.993
1.092 1.020
1.127 1.096
1.149 1.145
1.146 1.093
1.149 1.175
1.155 1.251
1.202 1.188
1.224 1.255
1.259 1.257
1.298 1.267
1.325 1.271
1.323 1.323
1.412 1.364
1.463 1.441
1.537 1.494
1.575 1.564
1.642 1.634
1.698 1.724
1.802 1.811
1.870 1.901
2.019 2.055
2.377 2.210


1.000
1.141
1.192
1.230
1.298
1.343
1.361
1.399
1.456
1.488
1.479
1.483
1.499
1.553
1.587
1.638
1.699
1.773
1.874
2.000
2.106
2.295
2.444
2.653


1.000
1.061
1.120
1.091
1.151
1.149
1.146
1.203
1.196
1.231
1.242
1.218
1.198
1.243
1.277
1.296
1.328
1.361
1.397
1.470
1.542
1.629
1.729
1.847


1.000 1.000
1.066 1.073
1.087 1.077
1.138 1.105
1.187 1.132
1.219 1.138
1.242 1.161
1.269 1.165
1.297 1.197
1.338 1.234
1.359 1.232
1.349 1.237
1.346 1.250
1.369 1.284
1.394 1.324
1.424 1.370
1.448 1.399
1.489 1.432
1.561 1.509
1.639 1.572
1.762 1.642
1.883 1.731
2.050 1.835
2.175 1.893


1.000
1.100
1.129
1.176
1.219
1.246
1.289
1.322
1.342
1.369
1.379
1.359
1.367
1.394
1.446
1.480
1.520
1.565
1.654
1.757
1.899
2.076
2.270
2.401


1.000
1.077
1.068
1.060
1.071
1.071
1.112
1.145
1.190
1.277
1.328
1.328
1.322
1.314
1.333
1.360
1.371
1.411
1.463
1.545
1.657
1.833
2.034
2.205


Note: 2003 values are preliminary. District 1 (Bay, Escambia, Holmes, Okaloosa, Santa Rosa, Walton, and Washington Cos.), District 2 (Calhoun, Franklin, Gadsden, Gulf,
Jackson, Jefferson, Leon, Liberty, and Wakulla Cos.), District 3 (Alachua, Bradford, Columbia, Dixie, Gilchrist, Hamilton, Lafayette, Madison, Suwannee, Taylor, and Union
Cos.), District 4 (Baker, Clay, [adeq. data not avail, for Duval], Nassau, Putnam, and St. Johns Cos.), District 5 (Citus, Levy, Marion, and Sumter Cos.), District 6 (Brevard,
Flagler, Lake, Orange, Osceola, Seminole, and Volusia Cos.), District 7 (De Soto, Hardee, Highlands, Okeechobee, and Polk Cos.), District 8 (Hernando, Hillsborough,
Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas, and Sarasota Cos.), District 9 (Charlotte, Collier, Glades, Hendry, and Lee Cos.), District 10 (Indian River, Martin, Palm Beach, and St. Lucie
Cos.), and District 11 (Broward, Dade, and Monroe Cos.)


1.000 1.000
1.084 1.066
1.097 1.091
1.126 1.101
1.138 1.107
1.150 1.114
1.180 1.153
1.205 1.205
1.280 1.258
1.326 1.307
1.353 1.339
1.335 1.341
1.318 1.339
1.332 1.398
1.368 1.470
1.393 1.516
1.425 1.563
1.461 1.598
1.530 1.665
1.620 1.748
1.737 1.891
1.915 2.133
2.138 2.420
2.267 2.656








T h e

U-ae o Foria'


Hous^Win


*2004


Annual rates of house price Orlando, and Tampa. Interestingly,
appreciation and the respective District 3 (i.e., Gainesville and its
correlations of the 21-year series are surrounding counties) appears to
noted in Tables 5.4 and 5.5. House price experience the lowest correlation of house
movements are found to be highly price movements with other districts in
correlated among Districts 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, the state. Table 5.5 suggests that, with
and 11 (i.e., through East Central, some exceptions, the state's housing
Central, Tampa Bay, Southwest Florida, market can be broadly described in terms
and South Florida including the of three general markets-northwest,
Orlando, and Miami areas), and between central and south.
the districts comprising Jacksonville,


Table5.4:Annul H s P Appr n () fr F d D t (


All Non Dist.
MSA MSA 1


1981 7.25 7.38 4.70 6.93
1982 2.42 2.37 3.54 5.16
1983 2.78 2.81 2.09 2.27
1984 2.71 2.58 5.36 4.18
1985 1.99 2.05 0.85 2.68
1986 1.89 1.86 2.57 0.02
1987 3.29 3.19 5.28 1.19
1988 3.02 3.01 3.33 -0.23
1989 2.97 2.92 4.01 0.76
1990 1.74 1.73 1.92 -0.65
1991 -0.69 -0.72 -0.26 1.17
1992 -0.18 -0.30 2.09 2.97
1993 1.92 1.91 2.12 3.31
1994 3.88 3.87 4.13 5.20
1995 2.07 1.97 3.88 3.61
1996 3.14 3.18 2.42 6.18
1997 2.66 2.62 3.39 4.06
1998 4.84 4.81 5.31 4.28
1999 5.24 5.27 4.81 4.70
2000 6.81 6.84 6.26 3.78
2001 7.90 7.93 7.29 3.63
2002 9.31 9.36 8.45 5.80
2003 9.04 9.05 8.76 5.25
Note: 2003 values are preliminary.


Dist. Dist. Dist. Dist.
2 3 4 5

7.41 -0.67 14.08 6.14
1.63 2.64 4.47 5.56
3.28 7.47 3.17 -2.61
1.94 4.49 5.60 5.45
-0.28 -4.49 3.40 -0.17
0.26 7.43 1.34 -0.20
0.51 6.53 2.84 4.93
4.10 -5.07 4.09 -0.59
1.78 5.61 2.19 2.90
2.88 0.14 -0.62 0.96
3.12 0.82 0.26 -1.96
2.09 0.30 1.09 -1.66
-0.15 4.14 3.62 3.81
6.72 3.09 2.17 2.69
3.61 5.65 3.22 1.46
5.04 3.68 3.73 2.54
2.48 4.66 4.37 2.47
4.24 4.51 5.67 2.59
3.44 5.52 6.76 5.24
6.13 5.03 5.29 4.90
3.77 4.97 8.96 5.67
7.96 8.10 6.48 6.16
n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.


Dist. Dist. Dist. Dist.
6 7 8 9

6.60 7.26 9.96 7.69
1.94 0.37 2.68 -0.86
4.71 2.66 4.18 -0.69
4.28 2.43 3.66 1.04
2.77 0.52 2.20 -0.03
1.86 2.00 3.47 3.86
2.17 0.36 2.50 2.93
2.17 2.75 1.57 3.99
3.18 3.09 1.97 7.26
1.58 -0.13 0.73 4.04
-0.74 0.40 -1.41 0.00
-0.19 0.99 0.56 -0.48
1.69 2.74 1.96 -0.63
1.79 3.12 3.75 1.47
2.21 3.48 2.33 2.02
1.67 2.13 2.72 0.83
2.84 2.37 2.95 2.93
4.80 5.33 5.70 3.63
5.01 4.22 6.23 5.61
7.49 4.46 8.06 7.27
6.88 5.41 9.32 10.60
8.86 6.01 9.36 10.99
n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.


Dist. Dist.
10 11

8.45 6.56
1.15 2.39
2.69 0.87
0.98 0.54
1.06 0.70
2.65 3.44
2.13 4.51
6.16 4.40
3.60 3.93
2.11 2.47
-1.35 0.10
-1.27 -0.11
1.02 4.43
2.74 5.14
1.81 3.09
2.32 3.08
2.48 2.26
4.75 4.23
5.89 4.97
7.21 8.16
10.25 12.79
11.62 13.46
n.a. n.a.










All All Non Dist. Dist. Dist. Dist. Dist. Dist. Dist. Dist. Dist. Dist. Dist.
FL MSA MSA 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Florida 1.00
All MSAs 1.00 1.00
Non-MSA 0.90 0.89 1.00
Dist.-1 0.55 0.55 0.46 1.00
Dist.-2 0.71 0.71 0.64 0.48 1.00
Dist.-3 0.37 0.36 0.52 0.22 0.23 1.00
Dist.-4 0.78 0.79 0.64 0.68 0.51 0.09 1.00
Dist.-5 0.74 0.74 0.80 0.61 0.42 0.38 0.69 1.00
Dist.-6 0.92 0.92 0.81 0.48 0.51 0.39 0.76 0.64 1.00
Dist.-7 0.77 0.77 0.64 0.55 0.44 0.27 0.78 0.50 0.79 1.00
Dist.-8 0.91 0.91 0.77 0.60 0.48 0.35 0.84 0.67 0.93 0.87 1.00
Dist.-9 0.84 0.84 0.78 0.17 0.53 0.30 0.58 0.58 0.78 0.69 0.75 1.00
Dist.-10 0.92 0.92 0.77 0.35 0.51 0.23 0.71 0.57 0.88 0.82 0.89 0.90 1.00
Dist.-11 0.91 0.91 0.84 0.37 0.58 0.38 0.60 0.67 0.78 0.69 0.80 0.87 0.90 1.00







'^The I1

U-ae o Foria'

Hous^Win

*2004


5.4 MSA-Level Measures of
Single-Family House Price
Appreciation in Florida

Average annual rates of appreciation
are listed for five-year periods from 1981-
2000 and for the 2001-2003 period in
Table 5.6. The table also includes the
relative ranking of each MSA among the
20 MSAs. During the 1980 to 1985
period, the larger MSAs of Jacksonville
and Tampa-St. Petersburg generally led
other MSAs in house price appreciation.
In the second half of the 1980s, MSAs
located in the southern portion of the
state, particularly MSAs such as Naples,
Punta Gorda, and Ft. Myers in the
southwest, led the rest of the state in
house price appreciation. The 1991 to
1995 period, a slow growth period, saw
a change in this trend with relatively
rapid appreciation in the northwest area
of Florida. During the first half of the
1990s, areas such as Panama City, Ft.
Walton Beach, Pensacola, and Tallahassee
outperformed all other MSAs with the
exception of Miami. In the last half of
the 1990s, the trend in house price
appreciation looked much like the early
1980s, with Jacksonville, Tampa-St.
Petersburg and Naples once again among
the state's leaders. Estimates indicate that
the MSAs in South Florida have
experienced exceptionally rapid house
price appreciation in the first few years
after 2000. This is most likely due to
continued population growth and the
constrained supply of developable land
it that area of the state.
It is interesting to note that the Naples
and Miami MSAs were among the
highest quartile in terms of average
annual house price appreciation rates in
three of the four five-year periods studied,
and have continued to experience rapid
appreciation rates into the 2000s. In
addition, most areas experienced periods
of rapid growth and slow growth in house


prices relative to the other Florida MSAs.
Only Sarasota-Bradenton and Ocala
MSA have been ranked in all periods to
be in the top 10 (of 20) and bottom 10,
respectively.
House price indices are reported for
each of the 20 MSAs, as well as the state,
all MSAs, and all non-MSA areas in Table
5.7.6 Annual rates of appreciation from
1981 to 2002, constructed from the
indices listed in Table 5.7, are listed in
Table 5.8 for all MSAs in Florida.

5.5 County-Level Measures of
House Price Appreciation in
Florida

Estimates of house price appreciation
for the 1996 to 2002 period are reported
for all Florida counties, listed by district,
in Table 5.9. Estimates are reported for
counties having sufficient transaction
information. In some districts, the small
counties are grouped to provide more
reliable estimates. Adequate data are not
available to provide reliable estimates for
2003.
During the 2001 to 2002 period,
annual house price appreciation rates
exceeded 10.0 percent in ten counties
(areas), with Monroe (14.41%), Dade
(11.92%), and Broward (11.77%)
topping the list. It is interesting to note
that all of the ten highest appreciation
counties (areas) are located in the
Southeastern or Southwestern portion of
the state. In contrast, five areas
experienced average annual appreciation
rates of less than 5.0 percent over this
same period: Escambia (3.28%); Santa
Rosa (3.71%); the small counties of
Districts 4 (3.72%); Clay (4.65%); and
Okaloosa (4.76%). Table 5.10 reports
the estimates of annual house price
appreciation for the state and county
areas for each year from 1996 through
2002.


Note that the estimated appreciation rates for the Jacksonville MSA include primarily Clay, Nassau, and St. Johns
counties. They do not substantially include Duval County, due to the limited data available.










Metropolitan Statistical Area 1981-85 1986-90 1991-95 1996-00 2001-03
(rank) (rank) (rank) (rank) (rank)

Florida (All MSAs) 3.44 2.54 1.35 4.54 8.78
Pensacola MSA (Dist. 1) 4.20 (6) 0.09 (18) 1 1i.i 4 '-: (_.i 3.39 (20)
Ft. Walton Beach MSA (Dist. 1) 4- 1, .i -0.04 (19) :.:. i 4.34(10) 4.76 (19)
Panama City MSA (Dist. 1) 3.01 (11) 0.92 (17) 7.? ili 4.13 (12) 7.77 (14)
Tallahassee MSA (Dist. 2) 2.81 (12) 2.07 (11) 2.58 (6) 3.77 (17) 8.04 (10)
Gainesville MSA(Dist. 3) n.a. n.a. 1 4.1. -i 4.80 (8) 7.12 (15)
Jacksonville MSA (Dist. 4) _..? ii 1.81 (13) 1.84 (9) _. :7 i-i 7.84 (11)
Ocala MSA (Dist. 5) 2.63 (14) 1.11 (16) 1.25 (13) 3.95 (16) 5.47 (18)
Daytona Beach MSA (Dist. 6) 3.35 (7) 2.88 (8) 1.20 (14) 4.04 (14) 8.69 (9)
Orlando MSA (Dist. 6) 4 i.6 4i 2.35 (10) 0.94 (15) 4.84 (6) 6.76 (16)
Melbourne-Titusville MSA (Dist. 6) 3.05 (9) 1.20 (15) 0.78 (16) 3.11 (20) 7.79 (13)
Lakeland MSA (Dist. 7) 3.15 (8) 1.48 (14) 2.12 (7) 4.09(13) 5.62 (17)
Tampa-St.Pete. MSA (Dist. 8) -4 7I_. I 1.90 (12) 1.35 (11) I. _'0 l.l 7.80 (12)
Sarasota-Bradenton MSA (Dist. 8) 3.05 (9) 2.84 (9) 1.95 (8) 4.79 (9) 10.26 (8)
Punta Gorda MSA (Dist. 9) 0.58 (19) 4 .-.3 l -0.97 (20) 4.26(11) 10.31 (7)
Ft. Myers MSA (Dist. 9) 2.03 (17) 4 14 i I 1.34 (12) 3.51 (18) 10.34 (6)
Naples MSA (Dist. 9) 4 C. 1 .i _. '. (11 0.78 (16) -. '., (ll 11 0' i.i
Ft. Pierce MSA (Distr. 10) 2.30 (15) 3.20 (7) -0.50 (19) 3.21 (19) 1 1 1. 14
West Palm Beach MSA (Dist. 10) 2.69 (13) '. -410 1 0.36 (18) 4.81 (7) 11 1-4 I-I
Ft. Lauderdale MSA (Dist. 11) 1.89 (18) 3.30 (6) 1.81 (10) 4.01 (15) 11 1 i 7 1
M iam i MSA (Dist. 11) 2.15 (16) '. 9 1 -l % C ,.' I'.) 7. 1 .' 141 11 .'- I1

Notes: Estimates for 2003 are preliminary. Shaded areas denote top quartile ranking. Pensacola MSA (Escambia and Santa Rosa
Cos.), Ft. Walton Beach MSA (Okaloosa Co.); Panama City MSA (Bay County), Tallahassee MSA (Leon and Gadsden Cos.), Gainesville
MSA (Alachua Co.[adeq data not avail all periods]), Jacksonville MSA (Clay, [adeq. data not avail, for Duval], Nassau, and St. Johns
Cos.), Ocala MSA (Marion Co.), Daytona Beach MSA (Flagler and Volusia Cos.), Orlando MSA (Lake, Orange, Osceola, and Seminole
Cos.), Melbourne-Titusville MSA (Brevard Co.), Lakeland MSA (Polk Co.), Tampa-St.Petersburg MSA (Hernando, Hillsborough, Pasco,
and Pinellas Cos.), Sarasota-Bradenton MSA (Manatee and Sarasota Cos.), Punta Gorda MSA (Charlotte Co.), Ft. Myers-Cape Coral
MSA (Lee Co.), Naples MSA (Collier Co.), Ft. Pierce-Port St. Lucie MSA (Martin and St. Lucie Cos.), West Palm Beach-Boca Raton MSA
(Palm Beach Co.), Ft. Lauderdale MSA (Broward Co.), and Miami MSA (Dade Co.)
























Table ~ ~ 5.7 *nua **us Prc Inggce fo Flrd*erplia ttsia Area (M As


All All Non MSA MSA MSA MSA MSA MSA MSA MSA


FL MSA MSA
Flor


1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Pens Ft.W Pana Tall Gain Jack Ocal Dayt


1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000
1.072 1.074 1.047 1.078 1.063 1.030 1.073
1.098 1.099 1.084 1.124 1.130 1.052 1.113
1.129 1.130 1.107 1.125 1.204 1.104 1.139
1.160 1.159 1.166 1.169 1.222 1.194 1.147
1.183 1.183 1.176 1.227 1.255 1.156 1.147
1.205 1.205 1.206 1.216 1.230 1.214 1.142
1.245 1.244 1.270 1.223 1.276 1.218 1.149
1.282 1.281 1.312 1.209 1.283 1.225 1.201
1.321 1.318 1.365 1.230 1.283 1.214 1.226
1.343 1.341 1.391 1.232 1.250 1.208 1.269
1.334 1.331 1.387 1.210 1.305 1.257 1.287
1.332 1.327 1.416 1.253 1.328 1.309 1.318
1.357 1.353 1.446 1.292 1.391 1.338 1.318
1.410 1.405 1.506 1.358 1.488 1.382 1.384
1.439 1.433 1.565 1.412 1.496 1.455 1.441
1.484 1.478 1.602 1.495 1.614 1.537 1.513
1.524 1.517 1.657 1.561 1.670 1.590 1.539
1.598 1.590 1.745 1.646 1.699 1.672 1.595
1.681 1.674 1.829 1.727 1.745 1.767 1.647
1.796 1.788 1.943 1.794 1.847 1.779 1.733
1.938 1.930 2.085 1.845 1.901 1.916 1.807
2.118 2.111 2.261 1.925 2.017 2.046 1.936
2.310 2.302 2.459 n.a n.a n.a n.a


n.a. 1.000 1.000 1.000
n.a. 1.182 1.038 1.076
n.a. 1.250 1.119 1.067
n.a. 1.270 1.056 1.109
n.a. 1.354 1.123 1.151
n.a. 1.418 1.133 1.177
n.a. 1.412 1.104 1.220
n.a. 1.465 1.176 1.261
n.a. 1.515 1.165 1.293
n.a. 1.553 1.187 1.332
1.343 1.550 1.194 1.356
1.390 1.536 1.190 1.360
1.392 1.552 1.167 1.366
1.447 1.615 1.224 1.402
1.496 1.648 1.259 1.411
1.583 1.697 1.268 1.439
1.646 1.757 1.327 1.455
1.736 1.843 1.361 1.492
1.795 1.943 1.397 1.552
1.896 2.095 1.475 1.629
2.001 2.203 1.539 1.752
2.118 2.396 1.633 1.891
2.269 2.577 1.712 2.096
n.a n.a n.a n.a


Note: 2003 values are preliminary.


1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003



























MSA MSA
11 12
Lake Tamp


1.000 1.000
1.076 1.106
1.084 1.136
1.129 1.187
1.143 1.232
1.166 1.259
1.187 1.305
1.193 1.338
1.226 1.358
1.262 1.379
1.254 1.383
1.266 1.358
1.265 1.366
1.301 1.388
1.349 1.443
1.392 1.477
1.431 1.513
1.468 1.559
1.548 1.650
1.630 1.756
1.701 1.902
1.791 2.075
1.897 2.262
n.a n.a


MSA
13
Sara


1.000
1.067
1.086
1.107
1.142
1.161
1.188
1.216
1.250
1.300
1.335
1.344
1.349
1.399
1.440
1.470
1.527
1.568
1.650
1.738
1.857
2.049
2.273
n.a


MSA MSA
14 15
Punt Ft.M


1.000
1.045
1.056
1.021
1.021
1.028
1.063
1.106
1.132
1.240
1.299
1.266
1.227
1.244
1.258
1.236
1.275
1.295
1.341
1.414
1.524
1.683
1.864
n.a


1.000
1.102
1.080
1.081
1.101
1.101
1.143
1.173
1.224
1.300
1.348
1.366
1.371
1.363
1.377
1.440
1.431
1.482
1.525
1.604
1.708
1.879
2.104
n.a


MSA
16
Napl


1.000
1.217
1.169
1.259
1.199
1.222
1.291
1.354
1.382
1.533
1.624
1.596
1.620
1.577
1.668
1.684
1.722
1.793
1.892
2.020
2.216
2.497
2.732
n.a


MSA
17
Ft.P


1.000
1.108
1.131
1.168
1.091
1.112
1.143
1.180
1.244
1.283
1.302
1.293
1.262
1.228
1.265
1.268
1.269
1.317
1.346
1.404
1.484
1.631
1.818
n.a


MSA
18
WPB


1.000
1.081
1.093
1.114
1.128
1.140
1.171
1.195
1.271
1.307
1.346
1.315
1.293
1.316
1.351
1.369
1.406
1.440
1.507
1.605
1.729
1.923
2.155
n.a


MSA MSA
19 20
Ft.L Miam


1.000 1.000
1.032 1.098
1.079 1.101
1.088 1.107
1.094 1.110
1.098 1.109
1.139 1.141
1.188 1.186
1.230 1.244
1.268 1.297
1.291 1.335
1.282 1.354
1.290 1.331
1.339 1.410
1.369 1.541
1.410 1.589
1.441 1.661
1.462 1.710
1.520 1.784
1.584 1.893
1.715 2.039
1.930 2.289
2.197 2.602
n.a n.a


1 : (180202


MSA MSA
9 10
Orla Melb


1.000
1.069
1.100
1.163
1.219
1.255
1.269
1.301
1.335
1.378
1.409
1.404
1.387
1.416
1.444
1.476
1.507
1.555
1.641
1.727
1.867
1.992
2.151
n.a


1.000
1.045
1.071
1.097
1.128
1.162
1.183
1.186
1.200
1.236
1.233
1.202
1.224
1.226
1.249
1.281
1.290
1.320
1.357
1.415
1.492
1.593
1.751
n.a








'^The I1

U-ae o Foria'


Hous^Win



*100,


All All Non MSA MSA MSA MSA MSA MSA
FL MSA MSA 1 2 3 4 5 6
Flor Pens Ft.W Pana Tall Gain Jack


1981 7.25
1982 2.42
1983 2.78
1984 2.71
1985 1.99
1986 1.89
1987 3.29
1988 3.02
1989 2.97
1990 1.74
1991 -0.69
1992 -0.18
1993 1.92
1994 3.88
1995 2.07
1996 3.14
1997 2.66
1998 4.84
1999 5.24
2000 6.81
2001 7.90
2002 9.31
2003 9.04


7.38
2.37
2.81
2.58
2.05
1.86
3.19
3.01
2.92
1.73
-0.72
-0.30
1.91
3.87
1.97
3.18
2.62
4.81
5.27
6.84
7.93
9.36
9.05


7.82
4.22
0.08
3.91
4.96
-0.88
0.59
-1.17
1.73
0.17
-1.76
3.55
3.09
5.14
4.02
5.85
4.44
5.41
4.91
3.91
2.84
4.31
n.a.


6.27
6.29
6.60
1.52
2.65
-1.95
3.69
0.57
-0.02
-2.51
4.33
1.78
4.75
6.97
0.53
7.92
3.46
1.76
2.67
5.88
2.91
6.11
n.a.


3.01
2.11
4.99
8.13
-3.22
5.07
0.30
0.61
-0.97
-0.43
4.02
4.11
2.27
3.30
5.21
5.69
3.42
5.15
5.70
0.68
7.69
6.79
n.a.


n.a. 18.20
n.a. 5.78
n.a. 1.61
n.a. 6.55
n.a. 4.77
n.a. -0.42
n.a. 3.76
n.a. 3.36
n.a. 2.53
n.a. -0.18
3.46 -0.89
0.15 1.03
3.92 4.02
3.40 2.09
5.83 2.97
3.97 3.52
5.48 4.88
3.39 5.43
5.63 7.84
5.56 5.16
5.86 8.74
7.10 7.55
n.a. n.a.


Note: 2003 values are preliminary.

















. m~ai i *: is~lKl


MSA MSA MSA MSA
7 8 9 10
Ocal Dayt Orla Melb

3.75 7.65 6.86 4.49
7.83 -0.87 2.91 2.51
-5.56 3.96 5.79 2.42
6.25 3.72 4.80 2.80
0.91 2.30 2.92 3.05
-2.56 3.67 1.17 1.76
6.56 3.32 2.52 0.29
-0.93 2.52 2.60 1.16
1.89 3.09 3.19 3.02
0.58 1.80 2.25 -0.24
-0.30 0.26 -0.32 -2.54
-1.93 0.48 -1.22 1.85
4.83 2.61 2.05 0.15
2.90 0.62 2.01 1.86
0.74 2.02 2.19 2.56
4.65 1.07 2.09 0.75
2.55 2.57 3.20 2.33
2.63 4.00 5.57 2.74
5.55 4.97 5.23 4.34
4.39 7.59 8.12 5.38
6.09 7.89 6.67 6.77
4.84 10.88 8.00 9.95
n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.


MSA MSA MSA MSA MSA MSA MSA MSA
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Lake Tamp Sara Punt Ft.M Napl Ft.P WPB


7.63 10.56 6.72 4.48
0.67 2.78 1.75 1.04
4.23 4.43 1.98 -3.31
1.19 3.85 3.11 0.06
2.02 2.20 1.67 0.61
1.77 3.60 2.37 3.46
0.50 2.54 2.34 4.06
2.80 1.51 2.77 2.35
2.97 1.53 3.97 9.52
-0.64 0.31 2.75 4.76
0.92 -1.82 0.65 -2.52
-0.08 0.60 0.34 -3.07
2.89 1.62 3.74 1.34
3.65 3.92 2.93 1.13
3.20 2.40 2.08 -1.73
2.80 2.44 3.90 3.15
2.61 3.04 2.66 1.53
5.44 5.81 5.21 3.56
5.27 6.41 5.35 5.45
4.35 8.32 6.82 7.74
5.31 9.10 10.36 10.44
5.93 9.03 10.92 10.77
n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.


10.19 21.67 10.84 8.11 3.25
-1.99 -3.95 2.01 1.07 4.51
0.06 7.75 3.28 1.96 0.80
1.90 -4.80 -6.58 1.26 0.59
0.00 1.91 1.97 1.03 0.32
3.80 5.65 2.79 2.71 3.74
2.62 4.91 3.17 2.05 4.30
4.37 2.11 5.44 6.38 3.59
6.23 10.88 3.10 2.89 3.05
3.68 5.93 1.48 2.96 1.79
1.32 -1.70 -0.66 -2.31 -0.67
0.40 1.47 -2.43 -1.68 0.64
-0.61 -2.66 -2.70 1.75 3.75
1.02 5.77 3.04 2.67 2.32
4.54 1.00 0.25 1.36 2.99
-0.58 2.25 0.08 2.73 2.18
3.53 4.13 3.75 2.41 1.41
3.00 5.52 2.25 4.63 4.01
5.08 6.77 4.30 6.52 4.20
6.49 6.68 5.70 7.74 8.25
9.99 12.69 9.90 11.17 12.58
11.99 9.41 11.47 12.11 13.83
n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.


MSA MSA
19 20
Ft.L Miam


9.75
0.33
0.51
0.26
-0.09
2.89
3.97
4.90
4.22
2.97
1.38
-1.63
5.92
9.29
3.12
4.51
2.97
4.31
6.12
7.71
12.26
13.66
n.a.








'^The I1

U-ae o Foria'


Hous^Win


*2004


County
Florida
(All Counties)
Florida
(All MSAs)
Florida
(All non-MSA Counties)
Escambia Co.
(Dist. 7, Pensacola MSA)
Santa Rosa Co.
(Dist. 7, Pensacola MSA)
Okaloosa Co.
(Dist. 7, Ft. Walton Beach MSA)
Bay Co.
(Dist. 7, Panama City MSA)
District 1 Small Counties
(Dist. 7)
Leon Co.
(Dist. 2, Tallahassee MSA)



A l i.: h I -1
iL'-^ -'I
I l ,: iti-ijriil- I







St. Johns Co.
(Dist. 4, Jacksonville MSA)
District 4 Small Counties
(Dist. 4)
LI _: I : :

[i'. -it Ica-
(L014qt; ", C 1i-j /. lAI 41
l-i : [ i.- i [ :'ri, ill i jraii-





I-II 1- i l- I iI- i S A I

l(01,q r_1 01jlonjl,-, AIS411


2001-2002 County
Osceola Co.
8.75 (Dist. 6, Orlando MSA)
Seminole Co.
8.78 (Dist. 6, Orlando MSA)
Brevard Co.
8.16 (Dist. 6, Melbourne MSA)
Polk Co.
3.26 (Dist. 7, Lakeland MSA)
District 7 Small Counties
3.71 (Dist. 7)
...........................................................................................................................................................................................
Hernando Co.
4.76 (Dist. 8, Tampa-St.P MSA)
...........................................................................................................................................................................................
Hillsborough Co.
7.77 (Dist. 8, Tampa-St.Pete. MSA)
Pasco Co.
7.17 (Dist. 8, Tampa-St.Pete. MSA)
Pinellas Co.
5.84 (Dist. 8, Tampa-St.Pete. MSA)
[,J1 i- i:,



71 1 qi:.11- j .-j- ,1,
n (014-4 I _4'l A IS-A

I ,-
I FChq '-t* Ft /Ilc-'i~ 1.S 1

ii -I rI)'i iVJ;'i.--- A? IS 41
District 9 Small Counties
9.41 (Dist. 9.)
Indian River Co.
3.72 (Dist. 10)


A:. j'i0. O 4lqt I. F( P .-. ;-.l\ I l. 11 i1


-' Ii/ .: i- F- .
_.:_-.1 .l ;. F[ PI i lI A I S. A I

F i' .- i : i i: .:

h 4 (I.i I IA/ iF i A l ISAI
. I. Ch 4 1 1 AF L rl-'IS l l-A I l,_S -1

'- .:1ii I: ..

i_. ': I iL'i t 1 1


11 -1.




11 '4


Notes: Multi-county estimates may vary from MSA estimates due to small sample estimation error. Shaded areas
denote top quartile return. Flagler, and Duval Cos. not estimated due to insufficient data. District 1 small cos. are
Holmes, Walton, and Washington. District 2 small cos. are Calhoun, Franklin, Gadsden, Gulf, Jackson, Jefferson,
Liberty, and Wakulla. District 3 small cos. are Bradford, Columbia, Dixie, Gilchrist, Hamilton, Lafayette, Madison,
Suwannee, Taylor, and Union. District 4 small cos. are Baker and Putnam. District 5 small cos. are Levy and
Sumter. District 7 small cos. are De Soto, Hardee, Highlands, Okeechobee. District 9 small cos, are Glades and
Hendry.


Tale 5.9: AvewuragelAnnual Pe~wurcentage Apprciation anudrewPeerid ahnkings
By Cont IS01IS2


2001-2002

5.68

7.39

7.79

5.62

5.94

6.60

7.27

9.52

8.11

.? .4



1,', -"1


11 i:.

8.16





















The data used in this report have been
summarized for all 67 Florida Counties and many of
Florida's cities.


This information can be found and downloaded into
Microsoft Excel by going to the
following website:
www.flhousingdata.shimberg.ufl.edu/DAT_introduction.html
and selecting the
"Construction and Sales Data" link.







A Technical Appendix in PDF format containing this summarized
data can be found at:
www.flhousingdata.shimberg.ufl.edu/publications.html







The State of Florida's Housing, 2004


T e 5 : Ana H s Pe -m A e n (% fo S c C t 2 ) 1


FL Esca
3.14 5.55
2.66 4.70
4.84 5.99
5.24 4.84
6.81 3.36
7.90 4.92
9.31 2.46

Semi Brev
1.95 0.75
3.54 2.33
5.51 2.74
4.69 4.34
9.37 5.38
6.95 6.77
8.91 9.95


Sant Okal Bay D1sm
7.31 7.92 5.69 0.61
3.27 3.46 3.42 7.39
3.84 1.76 5.15 2.84
4.89 2.67 5.70 11.49
5.67 5.88 0.68 4.97
2.23 2.91 7.69 1.09
8.94 6.11 6.79 12.12

Polk D7sm Hern Hill
2.80 0.31 0.79 2.31
2.61 1.38 3.20 3.26
5.44 5.03 1.36 6.65
5.27 0.94 3.90 6.40
4.35 4.94 5.35 7.63
5.31 5.85 6.32 8.42
5.93 6.36 8.33 8.16


Leon D2sm Alac D3!
5.07 6.34 3.97 3.u,
1.46 6.92 5.48 3.02
3.70 7.59 3.39 7.05
3.20 4.35 5.63 5.36
4.95 10.47 5.56 3.52
4.78 3.96 5.86 2.76
6.90 9.77 7.10 10.61

Pasc Pine Mana Sara
2.64 2.52 5.04 3.34
0.68 3.49 1.66 3.28
4.49 5.90 4.24 5.60
5.35 6.94 6.32 4.79
7.19 9.79 6.82 6.97
9.76 9.76 10.66 10.18
9.28 9.90 8.41 12.18


County Key:

FL: Florida (All Counties)
Esca: Escambia (Dist.1)
Sant: Santa Rosa (Dist. 1)
Okal: Okaloosa (Dist. 1)
Bay: Bay (Dist. 1)
Dlsm: District 1 Small Cos.
Leon: Leon (Dist. 2)
D2sm: District 2 Small Cos.
Alac: Alachua (Dist. 3)
D3sm: District 3 Small Cos.
Clay: Clay (Dist. 4)


Duva: Duval (Dist. 4)
St.J: St. Johns (Dist. 4)
Citr: Citrus (Dist. 5)
Mari: Marion (Dist. 5)
D5sm: District 5 Small Cos.
Volu: Volusia (Dist. 6)
Lake: Lake (Dist. 6)
Oran: Orange (Dist. 6)
Osce: Osceola (Dist. 6)
Semi: Seminole (Dist. 6)


Year
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002

Year
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002














Duvl St.J D4sm
n.a. 7.40 5.29
n.a. 5.64 1.64
n.a. 6.48 6.28
n.a. 8.20 0.92
6.35 7.16 7.83
6.24 10.62 8.52
12.63 7.64 -1.07

Lee Coil D9sm
-0.58 2.25 3.65
3.53 4.13 1.48
3.00 5.52 2.52
5.08 6.77 9.00
6.49 9.68 2.41
9.99 12.69 3.29
11.99 9.41 6.43


Citr Mari D5sm Volu
-0.75 4.65 0.07 1.15
2.19 2.55 2.59 2.62
2.98 2.63 2.23 4.05
4.37 5.55 5.19 4.96
5.78 4.39 5.45 7.58
5.05 6.09 5.30 7.99
7.21 4.84 7.61 10.94

Indi Mart St.L P.B.
3.68 -2.01 1.57 2.73
0.68 4.55 3.19 2.41
6.71 3.67 1.18 4.63
4.99 4.82 4.02 6.52
6.23 5.29 5.98 7.74
5.38 8.90 10.84 11.17
12.41 11.05 11.74 12.11


Lake Oran Osce
1.21 2.19 3.52
5.63 2.84 1.61
4.76 5.85 3.85
4.15 5.56 6.21
7.29 8.18 5.21
4.69 6.90 6.38
6.69 8.20 6.06

Brow Miam Monr
2.18 4.51 4.41
1.41 2.97 5.81
4.01 4.31 8.23
4.20 6.12 6.10
8.25 7.71 10.02
12.58 12.26 15.92
13.83 13.66 12.89


Brev: Brevard (Dist. 6)
Polk: Polk (Dist. 7)
D7sm: District 7 Small Cos.
Hern: Hernando (Dist. 8)
Hill: Hillsborough (Dist. 8)
Pasc: Pasco (Dist. 8)
Pine: Pinellas (Dist. 8)
Mana: Manatee (Dist. 8)
Sara: Sarasota (Dist. 8)
Char: Charlotte (Dist. 9)


Lee: Lee (Dist. 9)
Coll: Collier (Dist. 9)
D9sm: District 9 Small Cos.
Indi: Indian River (Dist. 10)
Mart: Martin (Dist. 10)
St.L: St.Lucie (Dist. 10)
P.Bch: Palm Beach (Dist. 10)
Brow: Broward (Dist. 11)
Miam: Miami (Dist. 11)
Monr. Monroe (Dist. 11)


Char
3.15
1.53
3.56
5.45
7.74
10.44
10.77







'^The I1

U-ae o Foria'


Hous^Win


*2004


5.6 Forecasts of State- and
MSA-Level House Price
Changes

Changes in population, real income,
mortgage interest rates, housing starts,
and price changes in previous periods are
shown in this section to affect MSA
house price levels. The effects of these
selected explanatory variables on
inflation-adjusted house price
appreciation are displayed in Table 5.11.
Note the inflation-adjusted price
appreciation is calculated as:

inflation-adjusted appreciation =

(1+apprecation rate)
(1+inlation rate) I


The effects of the explanatory
variables on inflation-adjusted house
price appreciation is estimated using a
"fixed-effects" regression model that
incorporates the time-series, cross-
sectional, nature of the data such that


inla tion-adjusted
house price
appreciation


a+ bX+e


where X denotes a vector of independent
economic and demographic variables, b
is the estimated regression coefficient, a
is an estimated vector of coefficients
corresponding to each MSA, and e is the
estimation error of the regression model.
The reported figures are the estimated
regression coefficients.' T-statistics,
which measure the statistical significance
of the explanatory variables, are reported
in parentheses.
The first column of Table 5.11
contains results for the 1981 to 2003
time period using only the six largest
Florida MSAs: Ft. Lauderdale,


Jacksonville, Miami, Orlando, Tampa-St.
Petersburg, and West Palm Beach. This
sample contains 131 observations. The
estimated regression coefficient on the
change in population is 0.508. This
means that a 1-percent increase in this
population group in the urban areas is
associated with a 0.508 increase in the
inflation-adjusted price of single-family
housing. The estimated coefficient on
changes in real per capital income of
0.393 also indicates a positive
relationship to percentage changes in real
house prices. As expected, the level of
the nominal mortgage rate is negatively
associated with price changes. The
coefficient can be interpreted as an
increase of 1 percent in the rate results
in a reduction of the inflation-adjusted
house price of 0.5 percent. The estimated
coefficient on housing starts is negative,
suggesting that substantial new housing
supply slows house price appreciation.
Finally, changes in real house prices in
the previous year are highly correlated
with current changes. In all cases the
coefficient signs are found to be
consistent with expectations and
statistically significant.
The second column of Table 5.11
contains the results for the 1981 to 2003
period using data for all 20 MSAs. This
sample contains 426 observations.8
Relative to the regression using just the
six largest MSAs, the effects of the
economic variables retain their estimated
signs and, generally, their magnitudes. It
is noted that house price movements are
more sensitive to percentage changes in
population and housing starts in larger
urban areas. This appears to be
reasonable because large percentage
changes in population and starts are not
easily achieved in the more populous
urban areas.


The fixed-effects estimation procedure is equivalent to using ordinary least squares with (indicator) variables to
capture the effects of being located in a particular MSA. The model dummy assumes, effectively, that the effect of
the explanatory variables on house prices appreciation is the same in all MSAs. Unexplained variation in
appreciation, presumably due to omitted explanatory variables, is not assumed to be constant across MSAs, and is
captured in intercept terms that vary across the MSAs. These MSA intercept terms are not reported here, but are
available upon request.
Observations were not available for all years for all MSAs (see Table 7).







Table .11: ExpiiPmstCn i ni Real.Single-F amilu Hou se Prices
U in 66no i an Deogapi Vuriabe (198s 200IS


Explanatory Variable


Pct. Annual Change in Population (Age 20-54)

Pct. Annual Change in Inflation-
Adjusted Per Capita Income

Level of Nominal Mortgage Interest Rate
Housing Starts in Previous Year as

Pct. of Total Households

House Price Appreciation in Previous Year


Six Largest MSAs

0.508 (2.11)*


0.393 (5.01)*

-0.005 (-5.11)*


-1.421 (-2.99)*

0.632 (10.04)*


All MSAs

0.177 (1.32)


0.416 (7.94)*

-0.006 (-8.51)*


-0.386 (-1.58)

0.427 (10.08)*


No. of Observations


Adjusted Model R-Squared


Notes: The six largest MSAs are Ft. Lauderdale, Jacksonville, Miami, Orlando, Tampa, and West Palm Beach. The
figures reported are the estimated model coefficients, b, with their t-statistics in parentheses. Estimated model:
House Price Appreciation = a + S bX, where b is the estimated coefficient, X the vector of explanatory variables, and
a the vector of dummy variables for each of the respective MSAs. "*" indicates that the coefficient is statistically
significant at the 95% confidence level. The house price appreciation equation is estimated using a "fixed-effects"
model that incorporates the time-series, cross-sectional, nature of the data. This estimation procedure is equivalent
to using ordinary least squares with dummy (indicator) variables to capture the effects of being located in a particular
MSA. The model assumes, effectively, that the effect of the explanatory variables on house price appreciation is the
same in all MSAs. Unexplained variation in appreciation, presumably due to omitted explanatory variables, is not
assumed to be constant across the MSAs, and is captured in intercept terms that vary across the MSAs. These MSA
intercept terms are not reported here, but are available upon request.


Taken together, the results of Table
5.11 are robust. Increases in the number
of individuals in their prime buying years
and increases in inflation-adjusted per
capital income have a significantly
consistent positive effect on inflation-
adjusted house prices. Increases in the
level of mortgage interest rates and
housing starts have a consistent negative
effect on appreciation. In addition,
house price changes are persistent. These
regression results are consistent with
findings in the housing research
literature. The relative strength and
stability of the estimated coefficients,
along with the explanatory power of the
model, suggest that it can be used to
project reasonable estimates of future
house prices.
The historical regression analyses are
used to forecast the average annual rates
of price appreciation for each MSA over


the 2001 to 2010 period. For
comparison, the forecasts are reported
along with the average annual
appreciation rates for the previous 10-
year periods in Table 5.12. The
economic data required for the forecasts
comes from the Florida Long-Term
Economic Forecast, 2001 by the Bureau
of Economic and Business Research at
the University of Florida. The Bureau's
estimates of expected population, real per
capital income, and housing starts are
employed in our appreciation forecasts.
Mortgage rates are assumed to average
their 1999 to 2003 average level of
approximately 7.0 percent for the 5-year
period. To report nominal appreciation,
annual inflation during the 2001 to 2010
period is assumed to be 2.4 percent
(again, the average annual rate from 1999
to 2003).
It is important to note that forecasting 77







'^The I1

U-ae o Foria'

Hous^Win

*2004


requires the assumption that the
historical relations between inflation-
adjusted price appreciation and the
explanatory variables such as population,
inflation-adjusted per capital income,
housing starts, mortgage rates, and past
appreciation continue into the future.
Certainly, this may be only a rough
approximation of the effect these
variables will actually have going forward.
In addition, the appreciation estimates
are based on the BEBR's underlying
forecast of the respective economic
variables, as well as the assumption that
average interest rates and general inflation
will be consistent with the past 5-year
period.
Average house price appreciation rates
for the state of Florida, reported in Table
5.12, are estimated to be 6.90 percent
per year (i.e., 4.50 percent above expected
inflation). In general, the highest annual
appreciation rates are forecast for the
southern portions of the state (e.g.,
Miami, 9.12%; Ft. Lauderdale, 8.71%;
West Palm Beach, 8.28%; and Ft. Pierce,


7.70% per year). Other MSAs that are
forecast to experience higher than average
rates are Punta Gorda, 7.70%; Sarasota-
Bradenton, 7.53%; and Ft. Myers,
7.50% per year). With the exception of
Panama City, lower than average house
price increases are forecast in the
northwestern portions of the state (e.g.,
Pensacola, and Ft. Walton Beach) and in
Ocala and Lakeland. The forecasted
relative annual appreciation ranking
among the six largest MSAs is Miami
(9.12%); Ft. Lauderdale (8.71%); West
Palm Beach (8.28%); Jacksonville
(6.19%); Orlando (6.53%); and Tampa-
St. Petersburg (6.44% per year).











Metropolitan Statistical Area 1971-80 1981-90 1991-00 2001-10
(rank) (rank) (rank) (rank)
Florida (All MSAs) 9.52 2.99 3.07 6.90
Pensacola MSA (Dist. 1) n.a. 2.14(16) 4.0C1 141 4.66 (20)
Ft. Walton Beach MSA (Dist. 1) n.a. 2.31 (15) 4.11 12i 5.33 (18)
Panama City MSA (Dist. 1) n.a. 1.96 (18) .9":, i 6.95 (10)
Tallahassee MSA (Dist. 2) n.a. 2.44 (13) 3.18 (10) 6.68 (12)
Gainesville MSA (Dist. 3) n.a. n.a. 4.11 121 6.61 (13)
Jacksonville MSA (Dist. 4) 8.34 (6)* 4.60 121 3.81 (6) 6.19 (8)
Ocala MSA (Dist. 5) n.a. 1.87 (19) 2.76 (14) 5.29 (19)
Daytona Beach MSA (Dist. 6) n.a. :,.12 i1 2.73 (15) 6.88 (11)
Orlando MSA (Dist. 6) 9.82 (3) 3.50 1"1 2.95 (13) 6.53 (14)
Melbourne-Titusville MSA (Dist. 6) n.a. 2.13 (17) 2.04 (18) 6.30 (16)
Lakeland MSA (Dist. 7) n.a. 2.32 (14) 3.07 (11) 5.79 (17)
Tampa-St.Pete. MSA (Dist. 8) 8.76 (5) 3.33 (4) 3.33 (9) 6.44 (15)
Sarasota-Bradenton MSA (Dist. 8) n.a. 2.94 (9) 3.51 (7) 7.53 (6)
Punta Gorda MSA (Dist. 9) n.a. 2.70(11) 1.71 (19) 7.70 (4)
Ft. Myers MSA (Dist. 9) n.a. 3.09 (6) 2.48 (17) 7.50 (7)
Naples MSA (Dist. 9) n.a. 5.20 (1) 3.36 (8) 6.98 (9)
Ft. Pierce MSA (Distr. 10) n.a. 2.75 (10) 1.37 (20) 7.70 41-
West Palm Beach MSA (Dist. 10) 10.18 I11 3.04 (7) 2.66 (16) 6.2 6 1',
Ft. Lauderdale MSA (Dist. 11) 9.89 (2) 2.59 (12) 3.07 (11) 8.71 121
Miami MSA(Dist. 11) 9.73 (4) 2.97 (8) 4.481 il 9.12 11i

Notes: Shaded areas denote top quartile ranking. *Data from previous report. Pensacola MSA (Escambia and
Santa Rosa Cos.), Ft. Walton Beach MSA (Okaloosa Co.); Panama City MSA (Bay County), Tallahassee MSA (Leon
and Gadsden Cos.), Gainesville MSA (Alachua Co.), Jacksonville MSA (Clay Nassau, and St. Johns Cos. [adeq.
data not avail, for Duval]), Ocala MSA (Marion Co.), Daytona Beach MSA (Flagler and Volusia Cos.), Orlando MSA
(Lake, Orange, Osceola, and Seminole Cos.), Melbourne-Titusville MSA (Brevard Co.), Lakeland MSA (Polk Co.),
Tampa-St.Petersburg MSA (Hernando, Hillsborough, Pasco, and Pinellas Cos.), Sarasota-Bradenton MSA (Manatee
and Sarasota Cos.), Punta Gorda MSA (Charlotte Co.), Ft. Myers-Cape Coral MSA (Lee Co.), Naples MSA (Collier
Co.), Ft. Pierce-Port St. Lucie MSA (Martin and St. Lucie Cos.), West Palm Beach-Boca Raton MSA (Palm Beach
Co.), Ft. Lauderdale MSA (Broward Co.), and Miami MSA (Dade Co.). 2001-2010 forecast based on model estimates
reported in Table 5.13 using projected economic and demographic data from the Bureau of Economic and Business
Research at the University of Florida.








'^The I1

U-ae o Foria'


Hous^Win


*2004


S 6.. 6. -.. 6 .- ...


District
District 1: West Florida
District 1: West Florida
District 1: West Florida
District 1: West Florida
District 1: West Florida
District 1: West Florida
District 1: West Florida
District 2: Apalachee
District 2: Apalachee
District 2: Apalachee
District 2: Apalachee
District 2: Apalachee
District 2: Apalachee
District 2: Apalachee
District 2: Apalachee
District 2: Apalachee
District 3: N. Central Florida
District 3: N. Central Florida
District 3: N. Central Florida
District 3: N. Central Florida
District 3: N. Central Florida
District 3: N. Central Florida
District 3: N. Central Florida
District 3: N. Central Florida
District 3: N. Central Florida
District 3: N. Central Florida
District 3: N. Central Florida
District 4: Northeast Florida
District 4: Northeast Florida
District 4: Northeast Florida
District 4: Northeast Florida
District 4: Northeast Florida
District 4: Northeast Florida
District 5: Withlacoochee
District 5: Withlacoochee
District 5: Withlacoochee
District 5: Withlacoochee
District 6: E. Central Florida
District 6: E. Central Florida
District 6: E. Central Florida
District 6: E. Central Florida


MSA
Panama City
Pensacola
Pensacola
Ft. Walton Beach
Non-MSA county
Non-MSA county
Non-MSA county
Tallahassee
Tallahassee
Non-MSA county
Non-MSA county
Non-MSA county
Non-MSA county
Non-MSA county
Non-MSA county
Non-MSA county
Gainesville
Non-MSA county
Non-MSA county
Non-MSA county
Non-MSA county
Non-MSA county
Non-MSA county
Non-MSA county
Non-MSA county
Non-MSA county
Non-MSA county
Jacksonville
Jacksonville
Jacksonville
Jacksonville
Non-MSA county
Non-MSA county
Ocala
Non-MSA county
Non-MSA county
Non-MSA county
Melbourne
Daytona Beach
Daytona Beach
Orlando


County
Bay
Escambia
Santa Rosa
Okaloosa
Holmes
Walton
Washington
Gadsden
Leon
Calhoun
Franklin
Gulf
Jackson
Jefferson
Liberty
Wakulla
Alachua
Bradford
Columbia
Dixie
Gilchrist
Hamilton
Lafayette
Madison
Suwannee
Taylor
Union
Clay
Duval
Nassau
St. Johns
Baker
Putnam
Marion
Citrus
Levy
Sumter
Brevard
Flagler
Volusia
Lake








u5.J13District, MAwsand6E CountiesI uI1lsed by D~istr~ictLoaione
(Nrhws Flrd to. Sotes Flria (continued


District 6: E. Central Florida
District 6: E. Central Florida
District 6: E. Central Florida
District 7: Central Florida
District 7: Central Florida
District 7: Central Florida
District 7: Central Florida
District 7: Central Florida
District 8: Tampa Bay
District 8: Tampa Bay
District 8: Tampa Bay
District 8: Tampa Bay
District 8: Tampa Bay
District 8: Tampa Bay
District 9: Southwest Florida
District 9: Southwest Florida
District 9: Southwest Florida
District 9: Southwest Florida
District 9: Southwest Florida
District 10: Treasure Coast
District 10: Treasure Coast
District 10: Treasure Coast
District 10: Treasure Coast
District 11: South Florida
District 11: South Florida
District 11: South Florida


Orlando
Orlando
Orlando
Lakeland
Non-MSA county
Non-MSA county
Non-MSA county
Non-MSA county
Tampa St. Petersburg
Tampa St. Petersburg
Tampa St. Petersburg
Tampa St. Petersburg

Sarasota Bradenton
Sarasota Bradenton
Punta Gorda
Naples
Ft. Myers
Non-MSA county
Non-MSA county
Ft. Pierce Port St. Lucie
Ft. Pierce Port St. Lucie
West Palm Beach
Non-MSA county
Ft. Lauderdale
Miami
Non-MSA county


Orange
Osceola
Seminole
Polk
De Soto
Hardee
Highlands
Okeechobee
Hernando
Hillsborough
Pasco
Pinellas
Manatee
Sarasota
Charlotte
Collier
Lee
Glades
Hendry
Martin
St. Lucie
Palm Beach
Indian River
Broward
Dade
Monroe







'^The I1

U-ae o Foria'

Hous^Win


*2004


6. Conclusion

Florida's 67 counties include 35 urban
counties and the 32 rural counties. The
urban counties can also be divided into
those that are a part of the six major
metropolitan areas and fifteen other
metropolitan areas. Almost 94% of the
single-family homes and 98% of
condominiums are located in these urban
counties. The rural counties can be
further divided into coastal and non-
coastal counties. Besides housing
differences in the urban and rural
counties, there are often also a number
of differences in housing characteristics
between coastal and non-coastal
counties. These housing differences
reflect the differences in the
characteristics of the population in
different areas of the state.
The population of the state is growing
rapidly and is occurring throughout the
state, but not uniformly. Different areas
of the state are characterized by
differences in the distribution of
households by age, income, race,
ethnicity, and county of origin. This
report has shown that many areas of
Florida are heavily reliant on increases in
the foreign born population while other
areas of the state are experiencing much
larger increases in their native born
population or increases in the number
of U.S. citizens migrating from other
states. In contrast, there are also areas of
the state that have experienced
population growth simply due to the
relocation of Floridians from one county
to another. This report has also shown
there is great variability in the age of
counties' residents with some counties
experiencing large growth in their elderly
population, others experiencing large
growth in their adult working age
population, and others experiencing
increases in their juvenile population.
These are only a few of the differences
that highlight the possibility that
different counties will face different
housing problems in the future.


Single-family housing units dominate
the state, but condominiums are an
important source of housing in some
coastal counties and manufactured
housing plays a key role in rural counties
in the interior of the state. In spite of
Florida's large gains in their housing
stock, housing costs have continued to
rise. Although the rate of appreciation
is expected to slow, estimates indicate the
rate will exceed 6 percent for the rest of
the decade. As housing prices continue
to increase in Florida, housing
affordability is becoming more of a
problem. This point can best be
illustrated by the fact that this year's
housing affordability index has the most
counties below 100 since 1995.



















































UNIVERSlYO
FLOID




University of Florida Home Page
© 2004 - 2011 University of Florida George A. Smathers Libraries.
All rights reserved.

Acceptable Use, Copyright, and Disclaimer Statement
Last updated May 24, 2011 - Version 3.0.0 - mvs