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F lorida Housing Data Clearinghouse Shimberg Center for Affordable Housing M. E. Rinker, Sr. School of Building Construction College of Design, Construction and Planning The State of Florida'sH ousing, 2002M ajor funding for this report provided by the State of Florida through the Florida Housing Finance CorporationJ anet Galvez, Shimberg Center, U niversity of Florida D ean Gatzlaff, Real Estate Center, F lorida State University Ji m Martinez, Florida Housing Data Clearinghouse, Shimberg Center, U niversity of Florida M argaret Murray, Department of U rban and Regional Planning, F lorida Atlantic University D iep Nguyen, Florida Housing Data Clearinghouse, Shimberg Center, U niversity of Florida W illiam O'Dell, Florida Housing Data Clearinghouse, Shimberg Center, U niversity of Florida Christine Schoaff, Endless Loop S oftware Ma rc T. Smith, Shimberg Center, U niversity of FloridaJ une 2002

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This publication, as well as an Appendix containing estimates of housing supply and the affordability index for each of Florida's sixty-seven counties, are available on the I nternet at www.flhousingdata.shimberg.ufl.edu. The Appendix also may be purchased from the Shimberg Center for $15.00 to cover reproduction and mailing costs.

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1Contents1.0 I ntroduction .................................................................................3 2.0 Estimating the Impact of Florida's Changing Population ...........3 on Housing Needs in the State 2.1 Florida's Population Profile.............................................................3 2.2 Population Change in Selected Counties........................................5 2.3 Migration and Mobility..................................................................5 2.4 Household Size and Income...........................................................7 2.5 Owners and Renters.....................................................................10 2.6 Summary......................................................................................11 3.0 Florida's Housing Supply ...........................................................13 3.1 Data Description..........................................................................13 3.2 Single-family Housing..................................................................14 3.3 Condominiums............................................................................17 3.4 Multifamily Housing....................................................................34 3.5 Impact of Housing on the Florida Economy.................................36 3.6 Summary......................................................................................36 4.0 Housing Prices and Affordability ..............................................37 4.1 Introduction.................................................................................37 4.2 Housing Affordability Index.........................................................37 4.3 Cost Burden.................................................................................45 5.0 F lorida House Price Trends: Market Comparisons and Forecasts........46 5.1 Introduction..................................................................................46 5.2 Statewide Measures of Single-Family House Prices in Florida.......47 5.3 District-Level Measures of Single-Family House Price..................48 A ppreciation in Florida 5.4 MSA-Level Measures of Single-Family House Price......................49 A ppreciation in Florida 5.5 County-Level Measures of House Price Appreciation in Florida....51 5.6 Forecasts of Stateand MSA-Level House Price Changes..............51 6.0 Conclusion ...................................................................................65The State of Florida'sH ousing, 2002

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The State of Florida'sH ousing, 20022 Tables2.1 Florida's Population by Age...........................................................................4 2.2 Change in Population 1990-2000 and Density Per Square Mile...................6 2.3 Mobility Rates and Origins of Movers Since 1995 (Census 2000)................6 2.4 Foreign Nationality.......................................................................................8 2.5 Average Household Size and Change in Persons Per Household 1990-2000.8 2.6 Average Household Size by Race/Ethnicity and Tenure, 2000.......................9 2.7 Median Household Income 1989 and 1999.................................................9 2.8 Median Value Owner Occupied Unit* 1989 and 1999...............................11 2.9 Owner-Occupied Units by Race/Ethnicity and Age....................................12 2.10 Renter-Occupied Units by Race/Ethnicity and Age..................................12 3.1 Single-Family Housing Stock.................................................................18-21 3.2 Condominium Housing Stock...............................................................22-25 3.3 Multi-Family Housing Stock with Two to Nine Units in Complex........26-29 3.4 Multi-Family Housing Stock with Ten or More Units in Complex........30-33 4.1 Affordability Index................................................................................40-43 4.2 Affordability Index Ranking 1999..............................................................44 4.3 Cost Burden...............................................................................................45 5.1 Summary of Florida House Price Appreciation,..........................................47 5.2 Average Annual Percentage Appreciation and Period Rankings by District..50 5.3 Annual House Price Indices for Florida Districts........................................52 5.4 Annual House Price Appreciation (%) for Florida Districts........................53 5.5 Correlation of Annual Appreciation Rates Between Districts......................54 5.6 Average Annual Percentage Appreciation and Period Rankings By MSA.....55 5.7 Annual House Price Indices for Florida Metropolitan Statistical Areas...56-57 5.8 Annual House Price Appreciation (%) for Florida Metropolitan............56-57 S tatistical Areas 5.9 Correlation of Annual Appreciation Rates Between MSAs.....................58-59 5.10 Average Annual Percentage Appreciation and Period Rankings.................60 By County 5.11 Annual House Price Appreciation (%) for Selected Counties....................61 5.12 Explaining Past Changes in Real Single-Family House Prices....................62 5.13 Average Annual Percentage Appreciation and Period Rankings By MSA...63 5.14 District, MSA and Counties Listed by District Location...........................64F iguresF igure 1 Region of Birth of Foreigh-born Population..........................................4 F igure 2 Selected Florida Counties......................................................................5 F igure 3 Florida Annual House Price Index and Appreciation...........................46 F igure 4 Florida Annual House Price Appreciation...........................................48 F igure 5 Average Annual House Price Appreciation..........................................49

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31. IntroductionThis study is a compendium of facts on Florida's housing. The data highlight the tremendous diversity in housing characteristics across the state, particularly between the 34 urban counties and the 33 rural counties, as well as between coastal and non-coastal counties. The characteristics of Florida's housing reflect the characteristics of the state's population. The population of the state is growing, creating a demand for additional housing, yet that growth is not distributed uniformly across the state. Gr ow th is most often a coastal phenomenon. Further, the nature of the growth differs across the state as characterized by age, income, race, ethnicity, and county of origin. Flori da is a state in which single-family housing units dominate, but condominiums are an important source of housing in some coastal counties and manufactured housing (mobile homes) play a key role in rural counties in the interior of the state. A majority of households are homeowners, but rental housing is needed to meet the needs of y oung and lower income households The data show that, relative to other areas of the country, housing prices in Florida are low. However, this is far from universal. Affordability indices indicate that housing in the state is affordable, but the indices mask affordability problems for those in lower income categories. F lorida's advantage in house prices often tends to be offset by correspondingly low income levels, resulting in housing affordability problems for a substantial portion of the population of the state. Affordability problems are particularly prevalent for renter households. Finally, it is a state in which much housing has been built in recent years but the aging of portions of the stock require attention to the need for rehabilitation. This document first discusses specific demographic patterns in the state and their impact on the need for housing. S econd, it details characteristics of the housing stock in the state. Third, it discusses the movement in house prices and the rate of appreciation in housing. F inally, it discusses issues in the affordability of housing in the state. The expectation is that the information included in this study will help readers to understand the diversity, the needs, the public policy concerns, and the opportunities of Florida's many housing markets.2. Estimating the I mpact of Florida's Changing Population on Housing Needs in the Stateby Margaret S. Murray, Ph.D., Department of Urban & Regional Planning, Florida A tlantic Unversity2.1 Florida's Population ProfileOver the past decade the state of Fl orida has seen its population grow from just under thirteen million to almost sixteen million people. Long seen as a haven for retirees, during the past decade the median age of the population rose to 38.7 years from 36.3 years in 1990. Table 2-1 presents the age distribution for F lorida's population in the year 20001. Mo re than 6.6 million people are between the ages of 25 and 54, the prime home purchase years. The main tie between people and housing is the household (Myers, 1992). A household exists when one or more persons occupy a single housing unit. When bonds of blood, marriage or adoption relate the people in a household, they constitute a family. In Florida, there are 6,337,929 households, 4,210,760 (66.4%) are family households, 1,779,586 (28.1% of 1All of the data analyzed in Section 2 are from the U.S. Bureau of the Census.

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The State of Florida'sH ousing, 20024all households) are family households with children under the age of 18 and of those 437,680 (6.9% of all households) are female-headed (no husband present) households with children under 18. The average household size is 2.46 persons and the average family size is 2.98 persons. F lorida's population is predominantly White with 12,465,029 people or 78 percent. However Florida is also home to a significant B lack or African American population with 2,335,505 people or 14.6 percent.2The Hispanic or Latino population grew by 70.4 percent in the past decade and now constitutes 16.8 percent (2,682,715) of F lorida's population. The number of Asians has increased 78 percent from 149,856 to 266,256. One of the primary factors that impacts housing is the effect of migration and immigration on F lorida's most heavily populated counties. The housing consequences of this population change are an object of interest to both the public and the policy makers alike. A large portion of the population change is due to migration, which is made up of the intra-state movement of people from other Florida counties or the movement from other states into F lorida. Another component of population change is immigration, which is the movement of Ta b le 2-1. Florida's Population by AgeAge GroupNumber Percent Under 5 years945,8235.9 5 to 9 years1,031,7156.5 10 to 14 years1,057,0246.6 15 to 19 years1,014,0676.3 20 to 24 years928,3105.8 25 to 34 years2,084,10013.0 35 to 44 years2,485,24715.5 45 to 54 years2,069,47912.9 55 to 59 years821,5175.1 60 to 64 years737,4964.6 65 to 74 years1,452,1769.1 75 to 84 years1,024,1346.4 85 years and over331,2872.1 T otal15,982,378100.00people from another country to Florida. The immigrant population tends to concentrate geographically in a limited number of urban areas in the port-ofentry states. Florida, one of the high immigration states, attracted an estimated 1,030,449 immigrants in the period between the 1990 and 2000 census. This number represents 39 percent of the total number of foreign born people living in Florida today. The total immigrant population in F lorida is extremely diverse but heavily w eighted toward newcomers from Latin American countries. This diversity is illustrated in Figure 1, which identifies the region of birth for non-native-born r esidents of Florida in 2000. As illustrated in Figure 1, over 70 percent of the foreign born population comes from Latin America; Europe a very distant second at 14 percent. Fu rt her investigation reveals that C ubans constitute the largest identifiable group of the Latin American population. Of the 2,682,715 people from Latin America, 833,120 or 31 percent are from C uba. Other major groups are Mexicans, 363,925 (13.5%), and Puerto Ricans, 482,027 (18%). The remaining 1,003,643 (37%) persons are from other parts of Latin America. 2U sing Race alone rather than Race alone or in combination from the 2000 Census. The race data from the 1990 and 2000 Census are not directly comparable. Individuals could report only one race in 1990 but could report more than one race in 2000; plus there were other relevant changes in the 2000 Census questionnaire. 0 200000 400000 600000 800000 1000000 1200000 1400000 1600000 1800000 2000000PersonsEurope Asia Africa O ceania Latin Am erica N orthern Am erica Figure 1. Region of Birth of Foreign-Born Population

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5 BREVARD BROWARD DADE DUVAL ESCAMBIA HILLSBOROUGH INDIAN RIVER LEE PALM BEACH PASCO PINELLAS POLK SARASOTA SEMINOLE VOLUSIA ORANGEFigure 2. Selected Florida Counties2.2 Population Change in S elected CountiesThe fifteen largest counties were selected to describe the impact of Florida's changing population on housing needs in the state. These fifteen counties (see F igure 2) reflect the diverse effects of migration and immigration on housing its cost, ownership rates, and location, and include almost every r egion of the state. T able 2-2 provides selective census data describing population change, population density, and housing unit density per square mile in the fifteen study sites and the state. Although it is important to examine the issue of population density and housing unit density, it is also important to understand density in relation to the unique environment in Florida. Many counties have large portions of land that are environmentally sensitive and cannot be built upon or that contain large bodies of water. The data permit the following observations: five counties, Broward, Lee, O range, Palm Beach, Pasco and Seminole all saw population increases of over 20 percent in the period from 1990 to 2000. P inellas County had the lowest population increase of the fifteen counties, 8.2 percent, but has the highest population density with 3,292 persons per square mile. Pinellas County also has the highest housing unit density with 1,720.4 units per square mile. Other counties with a population density exceeding 1,000 persons per square mile are Broward, Duval, Miami-Dade, and S eminole.2.3 Migration and MobilityP opulation change comes about as a r esult of changes in any one of four components: births, deaths, inmigration, and out-migration. P opulation movement occurs for a v ariety of reasons. Two of the primary r easons are because people are looking for work or because they are dissatisfied with current housing. People also move because they want a place to retire or wish to be closer to family. Population change is also divided between mobility, the movement of people within a county or given area, and migration, generally identified as a movement that crosses a county line (Meyers, 1992). M obility does not cause the total population of a county to change while migration does. Our interest is primarily in those new residents or those persons who did not live in the same county five y ears ago. Table 2-3 illustrates both mobility and migration. As this table

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The State of Florida'sH ousing, 20026 Ta ble 2-2. Change in Population 1990-2000 and Density Per Square MilePopulationHousing 19902000PercentDensityUnit Density CountyPopulationPopulationChangeper sq. mile per sq. mile Brevard398,978476,23019.36467.7218.1 Broward1,255,4881,623,01829.271346.5614.8 Duval672,971778,87915.741006.7426.3 Escambia262,798294,41012.03444.5188.2 Hillsborough834,054998,94819.77950.6405.3 Lee335,113440,88831.56548.6305.4 Miami-Dade1,937,0942,253,36216.331157.9437.9 Orange677,491896,34432.30987.8398.2 Palm Beach863,5181,131,18431.00573.0281.9 Pasco281,131344,76522.63462.9233.2 Pinellas851,659921,4828.203292.01720.4 Polk405,382483,92419.37258.2120.8 Sarasota277,776325,95717.35570.3319.2 Seminole287,529365,19627.011184.9477.2 V olusia370,712443,34319.59401.9192.1 State12,937,92615,982,37823.53%296.4135.4demonstrates, Florida residents are very mobile. Every county had a total mobility rate of close to or above 50 percent. Note that in Table 2-3 the column headed "Total Mobility" includes all movers in the county both in-county movers and those who moved into the county from other places as a percent of total population over the age of five years. M uch of that mobility came from "InCounty Movers." Also, a number of movers came from "Other Florida Counties." Orange, Pasco, and Seminole all saw more than 10 percent of their T otalFrom Other T otal MobilityIn-County CountyPopulation*RateMovers Brevard451,55348.40%25.57% Broward1,520,84252.90%27.15% Duval723,19851.10%29.74% Escambia276,62952.30%25.74% Hillsborough931,27654.00%30.02% Lee417,78352.30%24.41% Miami-Dade2,108,51249.80%32.91% Orange835,28757.70%26.22% Palm Beach1,069,25750.50%25.97% Pasco326,88447.80%18.79% Pinellas976,58849.60%27.53% Polk453,18048.50%27.62% Sarasota313,32748.60%22.32% Seminole341,94953.10%20.02% V olusia421,55348.30%23.57% Analysis is limited to persons over 5 years of age. Table 2-3. Mobility Rates and Origins of Movers Since 1995

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7population increase come from persons moving from other Florida counties. Ho wever, Table 2-3 shows that a significant number of movers came to F lorida "From Other States" or from areas outside of the U.S. as indicated in the column headed "From Elsewhere." N ot surprisingly, Miami-Dade County had the smallest percentage of movers from other Florida counties or from other states but the highest percentage of movers from elsewhere outside the U nited States. Escambia, Lee, and S arasota drew more than 15 percent of their movers from other states and Br evard, Pasco, and Volusia County had less than 2 percent of their movers come from elsewhere outside the U.S. In order to assess the movement of immigrants throughout the state, the percentage of foreign-born residents that moved into a county in the 1990-2000 period can be compared with the total number of foreign born. Of the 1,030,449 immigrants that moved to F lorida in the past ten years, 908,885 or 88 percent located in one of these fifteen counties (See Table 2-4). The county that had the largest absolute increase in immigrants was Miami-Dade, but Orange and Lee had the largest proportion of foreign born entering during the decade of the 1990s with 45.80 and 44.24 percent, respectively. It is also important to note that all immigrant groups do not share housing problems equally. Research into the housing situation of various immigrant groups finds that some immigrant groups fare better that others. Some ethnic groups receive housing assistance from religious or fraternal organizations. Another factor that affects the housing situation of immigrants is length of time in the United States. As length of time in the United States increases the housing condition of immigrants generally improves. Immigrants are frequently described as transitionally poor. Once they become acclimated to life in this country, they move up the income ladder.2.4 Household Size and IncomeF or the most part, the fifteen F lorida counties reflect the nationwide decline in persons per household. It is thought that this decline is the result of a v ariety of factors: more single persons electing to live alone or that they marry and start families later, divorce, and fewer children. Another contributing factor is that many elderly persons that outlive their spouses frequently decide to stay in the family home. Table 2-5 illustrates the change in average household size in the 1990-2000 period. D espite this trend, there are a number of counties that show an increase in household size. N otably, these counties include Br o ward, Miami-Dade, Orange, P alm Beach, and Pasco. The first two of these, Broward and M iami-Dade, also had the largest FloridaFrom OtherFrom CountiesStatesElsewhere 6.39%14.54%1.90% 9.03%10.55%6.13% 6.61%12.16%2.55% 7.45%16.77%2.35% 7.52%12.45%4.04% 6.13%18.70%3.09% 2.18%4.88%9.80% 11.65%13.84%6.03% 7.28%12.92%4.37% 13.23%14.13%1.62% 5.94%13.47%2.69% 7.91%11.17%2.21% 6.75%17.04%2.51% 16.12%13.78%3.21% 8.89%13.91%1.91% (Census) 2000

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The State of Florida'sH ousing, 20028 Table 2-4. Foreign NationalityPercent of T otal Entered2000Entering in County1990-2000Total1990-2000 Brevard8,08131,00126.07 Broward167,860410,38740.90 Duval19,60545,65142.95 Escambia3,58310,82133.11 Hillsborough49,054115,15142.60 Lee17,85840,36244.24 Miami-Dade416,0591,147,76536.25 Orange59,033128,90445.80 Palm Beach81,788196,85241.55 Pasco6,90224,12928.60 Pinellas32,84187,68537.45 Polk14,50533,51943.27 Sarasota11,21930,41636.89 Seminole12,00533,28536.07 V olusia8,49228,35329.95 State1,030,4492,656,17141.50 Table 2-5. Average Household Size and Change in Persons Per Household 1990-2000County19902000Percent Change Brevard2.432.35-3.30% Broward2.352.454.30% Duval2.542.51-1.20% Escambia2.572.45-4.70% Hillsborough2.512.510.00% Lee2.352.31-1.70% Miami-Dade2.752.843.30% Orange2.562.612.00% Palm Beach2.322.340.90% Pasco2.262.301.80% Pinellas2.182.17-0.50% Polk2.532.52-0.40% Sarasota2.182.13-2.30% Seminole2.642.59-1.90% V olusia2.332.32-0.40%percentage of persons migrating into F lorida from outside the United States. H ouseholds are frequently made up of extended families, that is, families with a grandparent or other relative living in the same housing unit. Of the Florida population living in family households, the Census reports that 5.85 percent of the White population has another relative living with them as compared to 13.06 percent of the Black or African American population, 9.94 percent of the Asian population, and 12.38 percent of the H ispanic or Latino population. We next considered household size broken down between owners and renters and by race/ethnicity.3 In spite of the decline in average household size overall,

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9 Table 2-6. Average Household Size by Race/Ethnicity and Tenure, 2000County White Black Hispanic or Latino OwnRentOwnRentOwnRent Brevard2.362.142.792.662.982.74 Broward2.312.063.312.913.232.91 Duval2.522.112.902.623.162.68 Escambia2.402.222.802.782.772.64 Hillsborough2.542.113.002.593.182.89 Lee2.232.213.152.903.593.54 Miami-Dade2.852.483.462.893.252.76 Orange2.582.203.232.763.412.96 Palm Beach2.222.083.372.993.323.33 Pasco2.272.252.912.783.153.32 Pinellas2.161.902.842.572.842.90 Polk2.422.363.012.783.843.67 Sarasota2.112.022.672.683.143.29 Seminole2.652.203.062.663.262.90 V olusia2.302.112.852.573.253.19the number of persons per household looks dramatically different when disaggregated in this fashion. As shown in Table 2-6, Blacks and Hispanics almost always live in larger households than do Whites. This comparison is particularly striking in the case of owner-occupied housing. A number of theories have been advanced to explain this difference. One theory is that certain racial or ethnic 3The Race/Ethnicity categories are as follows: White may be of any ethnic group including Hispanic or Latino. B lack may be of any ethnic group including Hispanic or Latino. Hispanic or Latino may include both those who identify themselves as Black as well as those who identify themselves as White. Ta ble 2-7. Median Household Income 1989 and 199919991999 MedianMedian HouseholdHouseholdPercent County Income IncomeChange Brevard30,53440,09931.33 Broward30,57141,69136.37 Duval28,51340,70342.75 Escambia25,15835,23440.05 Hillsborough28,44740,66342.94 Lee28,44540,31941.74 Miami-Dade26,90935,96633.66 Orange30,25241,31136.56 Palm Beach32,52445,06238.55 Pasco21,48032,96953.49 Pinellas26,29637,11141.13 Polk25,21636,03642.91 Sarasota29,91941,95740.24 Seminole35,63749,32638.41 V olusia24,81835,21941.91 State27,48338,81941.25

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The State of Florida'sH ousing, 200210groups prefer to live in larger extended families. Another theory is that the lower earnings of certain racial or ethnic groups necessitates the doubling up of families in order to secure adequate shelter. Ho we ve r, as expected in all groups, the average household size is somewhat greater in owner-occupied housing than in renter-occupied housing. There is also a strong tradition of home ownership in the United States and both federal and state policies support the ownership of housing in preference to renting. As people marry and create families, they also tend to move toward home o wnership. The ability to own a home is directly tied to both the earning power of people and to the stock of affordable housing. T able 2-7 illustrates how median household income varies over the selected counties. In 1999, Seminole county ranked highest with a median household income of $49,326 and Volusia ranked lowest at $35,219. However, a number of counties are shown with median household incomes in the mid-$30,000 range. Pasco County had the greatest percentage change in income over the ten-year period with a 53.49 percent increase. Brevard County showed the smallest change with a 31.33 percent increase. U sing the popular rule-of-thumb that suggests that a housing unit is affordable if it costs no more than two-and-a-half times annual income, we can estimate the ability of households to purchase a home of median value in each of the counties. In Br o ward, Lee, Miami-Dade, Palm B each, Pinellas and Sarasota, a household would have to earn more than the area median income in order to purchase a median priced home. Of these, Broward and Palm Beach counties stand out. In Br o ward and Palm Beach a household would have to earn more than 120 percent of area median income to purchase a median priced home. Table 2-8 provides a comparison of median house value in 1989 to median value in 1999. The largest increases in housing value occurred in Escambia and Lee counties while Brevard and Volusia saw the smallest increases. Po ve r ty also affects a number of F lorida families. There were an estimated 383,131 families below the poverty level in 2000. This is 9 percent of all families, virtually the same as in 1990. Of these families below the poverty level, 281,303 or 73 percent had children under 18 and, of that number, 164,596 were femaleheaded households. When we look at poverty levels in the 15 counties, we find that Miami-Dade has the most families below the poverty level at 14.5 percent or 80,108 families. The second highest percentage is found in Escambia County at 12.1 percent. However, due to the smaller population in Escambia, this percentage translates into a total of 9,021 families. Sarasota and Seminole counties have the lowest level of poverty, both just ov er 5 percent. Since passage of the P ersonal Responsibility and Work O pportunity Reconciliation Act in 1996 by Congress, welfare benefits were limited and many of these families constitute the working poor.2.5 Owners and RentersT able 2-9 presents homeownership by race/ethnicity and age. According to the 2000 Census, there are 6,337,929 occupied housing units in the state. Of those, 4,441,799 are owner-occupied and 1,896,130 are renter-occupied. The proportion of total units that are owneroccupied has increased from 67.25 percent in 1990 to slightly over 70 percent in 2000. Of the owner-occupied households 3,879,857 are White households, 380,236 are Black or African American households, 472,626 are H ispanic or Latino households, and 50,141 by Asian households. Of the housing units occupied by White householders, 74.12 percent are owneroccupied while only 50.22 percent of Bl ack or African American householders are owners. There are both similarities and differences across race and ethnic

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11 Table 2-8. Median Value Owner Occupied Unit* 1989 and 1999County19891999Percent Change Brevard75,20094,40025.53 Broward91,800128,60040.09 Duval64,00089,60040.00 Escambia57,80085,70048.27 Hillsborough73,10097,70033.65 Lee84,300112,90043.35 Miami-Dade86,500124,00032.06 Orange81,400107,50037.40 Palm Beach98,400135,20034.92 Pasco59,00079,60034.92 Pinellas73,80096,50030.76 Polk61,00083,30036.56 Sarasota87,200122,00039.91 Seminole91,500119,90031.04 V olusia69,40087,30025.79 State77,100105,50036.84 Specified owner-occupied units, which are effectively single-family housescategories by age. As expected the percentage of very young owneroccupants is quite small with the reverse true for renters. However, beginning with householders aged 35 and over, White owner-occupants are distributed rather evenly across all age categories. B lack, H ispanic and Asian owner occupants, however, are concentrated in the 35-54 year old age categories with the percentage of older owner householders trailing off significantly after 54. The proportion of renter-occupied housing units is presented in Table 2-10. This table's organization mirrors Table 29. As expected, renter householders are concentrated in the younger age categories (15 to 24 and 25 to 34 years) across all race and ethnic groups.2.6 SummaryThis discussion of population and housing issues related to the recently r eleased Census 2000 data presents a picture of Florida and the state's fifteen largest counties that is greatly different than the one presented following the distribution of the 1990 Census. A major population change occurred in Florida in the decade between the two census collections. This change is related to both the migration of people from states outside of Florida and to the immigration of people from foreign countries, particularly from Latin America. U nderstanding population change and how it impacts housing markets is crucial to developing effective housing policies. For example, examining the average household size for individual counties points to the need to consider policies that address housing large, extended families in counties undergoing heavy migration and immigration pressure. These changes in population also have implications for other aspects of society. In the future, it will be important to study the implications of this population change on schools and employment as well as housing in the state of Florida.

PAGE 14

The State of Florida'sH ousing, 200212 Ta b le 2-10. Renter-Occupied Units by Race/Ethnicity and AgeFloridaFloridaWhiteBlackHispanicAsian 199020002000200020002000 T otal Renter occupied:1,682,7091,896,1301,354,580376,840374,28132,608 Percent of Total Units32.75%29.92%25.88%49.78%44.19%39.41% Age of Householder Householder 15 to 24 years12.36%12.11%11.34%13.50%10.64%13.92% Householder 25 to 34 years31.91%26.62%25.19%28.92%27.22%39.39% Householder 35 to 44 years20.75%23.43%22.48%25.86%24.41%24.01% Householder 45 to 54 years11.23%15.34%15.34%15.75%14.91%13.13% Householder 55 to 64 years7.82%8.36%8.74%7.98%8.83%5.35% Householder 65 to 74 years7.59%6.28%6.99%5.01%7.44%2.79% Householder 75 years and over8.35%7.86%9.91%2.99%6.54%1.41% T otal100.01%100.00%99.99%100.01%99.99%100.00% Ta b le 2-9. Owner-Occupied Units by Race/Ethnicity and AgeFloridaFloridaWhiteBlackHispanicAsian 199020002000200020002000 T otal Owner Occupied3,453,0224,441,7993,879,857380,236472,62650,141 Percent of Total Units:67.25%70.08%74.12%50.22%55.81%60.59% Age of Householder Householder 15 to 24 years1.31%1.24%0.83%0.86%2.20%1.57% Householder 25 to 34 years12.28%9.87%9.23%12.39%16.25%14.45% Householder 35 to 44 years17.93%19.61%18.64%24.90%26.29%28.61% Householder 45 to 54 years15.51%19.51%18.89%23.56%20.28%28.79% Householder 55 to 64 years17.03%16.52%16.62%16.88%15.71%16.68% Householder 65 to 74 years20.89%17.25%18.15%12.58%12.62%7.53% Householder 75 years and over15.05%15.00%17.45%7.97%6.64%2.36% T otal100.00%100.00%99.71%99.15%100.00%100.00%

PAGE 15

133. Florida's Housing S upply3.1 Data DescriptionTo understand and analyze Florida's stock of housing, tax assessment records from the 67 county property appraisers are examined. The resulting database contains information on every parcel of land and every structure in Florida, including: parcel identification; land use code (vacant residential, single-family, condominium, etc.); total assessed value; assessed land value; year in which structure was built; square footage of the structure; parcel size; date and price of the two most recent sales; ad valorem tax jurisdiction; homestead exemption; and location of the property by section, township, and range. The sales data are for 1999, the last complete year for which data are available. G aps and limitations exist in these DOR data sets. In some counties, certain fields of data are not included in the r ecords, such as sales prices more than five years ago. In other counties, one or more data fields are not included for all properties. Definitions vary somewhat across counties, so that a data field is not included in some counties if it is not directly comparable to the data available in other counties. An example of this is square footage. Also the data must be cleaned. For example, any sales that are determined to be a "non-arms-length" transaction (by the DOR transaction code) are deleted. Additionally, any observations with obvious mispricing (due to data entry error) or which are not considered a sale for purposes of the r eport are deleted. For example, the older of two recent sale prices for a newly constructed home is usually the sale of the lot; a price not comparable to the sale price after the home has been constructed. Finally, data entry problems exist that have required the development of screening rules to eliminate information that falls outside r easonable boundaries. Nevertheless, the property appraiser data provides information on Florida's housing stock that is not otherwise available. For example, Census data quickly become dated because the Census is only conducted once a decade. The Census also is subject to inaccuracies in evaluating housing unit characteristics because it relies on the evaluation of the occupants for estimates of numerous v ariables such as property value and age. O ther sources, while current and v aluable, are subject to limitations of geographic coverage or amount of information available.4Fl orida's housing stock includes singlefamily units, multifamily units, and mobile or manufactured units. Although all three types of housing units are r epresented, the housing inventory is dominated by the single-family home. A bout 58 percent of the state's single family housing stock is located in six major metropolitan areas: Fort Lauderdale, Jacksonville, Miami, Orlando, Tampa-St. Petersburg, and W est Palm Beach-Boca Raton. Fort Lauderdale and Miami, because of their density, also have the distinction of having the most multifamily housing of any area in the state. Although not a type of structure, condominium housing is an important housing category in some areas of the state. Broward, Miami-Dade, and P alm Beach Counties alone have 58 percent of the state's condominiums. S ignificant concentrations of condominiums are also found in Collier, Lee, Pinellas, and Sarasota Counties. 4In the National Association of Realtors (NAR) Home Sales, the median sale price of existing single-family homes, condos, and co-ops sold in each quarter are reported for the nine largest metropolitan areas in Florida. In addition, the Florida Association of Realtors (FAR) produces the Florida Home Sales Report that contains information on monthly sales volume and median sale prices for the 20 major metropolitan areas. While valuable, the NAR and F AR reports do not contain information on characteristics other than sale price and volume, and in addition are based only on MLS sales. Moreover, numerous counties are excluded.

PAGE 16

The State of Florida'sH ousing, 200214Clearly, condominiums tend to be a coastal phenomenon. By contrast, mobile or manufactured housing is largely a r ural, inland phenomenon. F inally, an important characteristic of the existing housing stock is its age. We examine the extent to which the age of the stock exceeds 40 years. The fortyy ear mark is considered by some as the age at which rehabilitation and re modeling are commonly considered. S ince much of Florida's housing stock was built from the 1950s forward, the housing industry needs to think in terms of meeting the coming demand for r ehabilitation and remodeling. J acksonville and Miami are two metropolitan areas with older housing stocks that need to have serious consideration given to the rehabilitation market. The following section describes the existing single-family housing stock in Fl orida. Subsequent sections provide detailed information on the condominium market and the multifamily housing market. Although mobile homes account for a significant portion of residential housing units in many rural counties, we are unable to describe and discuss Florida's mobile home stock because comprehensive, accurate data are not available. Accurate data on manufactured housing (mobile homes) is difficult to obtain for several r easons. First, a mobile home is classified as real property if the owner owns both the home and the lot. It is these homes that are included in the property appraiser files. Other mobile homes, perhaps the larger share of them, are located on rented sites and carry a tag from the Division of Motor Vehicles. Fu r ther, even combining these sources re sults in data that are not consistent from year to year. In addition to r eporting problems, possible causes of inconsistencies include units not counted because of confusion about their status, failure to renew a tag, units placed on land and not reported to the appraiser, or uncertainty about the location of the unit (i.e. in a city or in the unincorporated portion of a county).3.2 Single-Family HousingSu mmary data by county, with aggregations to metropolitan and state totals are included in Table 3-1 (if the data were not available on the county property appraiser files for a county, a "2)" is placed on the Table). The single-family housing stock of F lorida totals almost 3.7 million units and the total assessed value of these units is $370.2 billion. Over seventy-seven percent of these units are occupied by their owner; the remainder are renteroccupied. The mean age of housing units in the state is 25 years, and the average size is 1,791 square feet. The number of single-family sales in 1999 totaled approximately 273,308, which is equal to approximately 7.4 percent of the total housing stock in this state.5 The median price of a 1999 sale was $111,000. This is lower than both the 1999 new median house price in the U.S. of $169,000 and the 1999 existing house price of $133,300.6F lorida's housing is geographically concentrated. The state's 20 metropolitan areas (MSAs) are divided into "major" metropolitan areas (6 MSAs) and "other" metropolitan areas (14 MSAs). The major MSAs include Ft. Lauderdale, Miami, Jacksonville, Orlando, West Palm Beach-Boca Raton, and Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater. A total of fifteen counties are in major MSAs. The 14 other MSAs include nineteen counties. A total of 34 of F lorida's 67 counties are therefore found in metropolitan areas, with the remaining 33 being non-metropolitan.7 5The number of sales depends on what classes of transactions are regarded as qualified sales. For example, the total quoted here includes only sales that were arms-length transactions.6The sources for these national prices are: new single family U.S. Census Bureau, Survey of Construction/ H ousing Sales Survey; existing single family National Association of Realtors, Existing Home Sales Survey.

PAGE 17

15These remaining 33 counties are further categorized, as shown in the T ables, into four regional groups: No r thwest, Northeast, Central, and S outh, according to categories used by the University of Florida's Bureau of E conomic and Business Research. The totals and means for the state r eported above allow for the determination of the standing of counties and metropolitan areas relative to the state, and for comparisons across counties and metropolitan areas. The six major MSAs contain over 2.1 million singlefamily units and these units comprise about 58 percent of the total housing stock in the state. Over one-quarter of the major MSA total, comprising almost 17 percent of the state, is found in the Ta mpa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater MSA (which we will refer to as Tampa Bay). The Orlando MSA has 11 percent of the state's single-family stock, the Ft. Lauderdale MSA about 9 percent, and the Miami MSA 8.4 percent. Of single county MSAs, Miami and Ft. Lauderdale have the largest numbers of single-family housing units in the state. Together, these two counties contain over 17 percent of the state's single-family units. Adding P alm Beach County results in almost 23 percent of the state's single-family stock being located in the these three southeast F lorida counties. The 14 other MSAs contain 34.5 percent of the state's single-family housing stock, while the 33 nonmetropolitan counties contain only about 7 percent. The non-metropolitan counties show the extremes of population densities in the state. For example, Lafayette County has fewer than 1,000 single-family units. Other counties with less than 3,000 units include Baker, Calhoun, Dixie, Gilchrist, Glades, Hamilton, Jefferson, Liberty, Madison, and Union Counties. These 12 counties combined have only about one-half of one percent of the total single-family housing units in the state. A total of 92,234 single family units we re constructed in the state in 1999. These units increased the size of the housing stock in the state by about 2.5 percent. About 54 percent of the new units were constructed in the six large metropolitan areas, with over 16 percent in the Orlando MSA and 13 percent in the Tampa Bay MSA. Among counties in the smaller MSAs, Volusia, Lee, Polk, Br evard, Collier, and Sarasota Counties all had 3 percent or more of the state's new construction. Lee County, with 4,566 new units, exceeded the level of new construction in all of the metropolitan counties in the state except Br o ward, Orange, and Hillsborough. The construction numbers show growth in population in several of the smaller MSAs. The total assessed value (the property appraiser's estimate of the value of a home for the calculation of property taxes) of single-family units in the state shows a similar pattern. The total assessed value of single family units in the state is approximately $370.2 billion and almost 62 percent of that total is found in the major MSAs. The three southeast Florida countiesMiami-Dade, Broward, and P alm Beachhave almost 30 percent of the total assessed value. The average assessed value of a single-family housing unit in Florida is about $100,000. Av erage assessed values range from over $210,000 in Collier County (Naples MSA) to about $44,000 in Gadsden County (Tallahassee MSA) among metropolitan counties and from a high of over $214,000 in Monroe County to a low of about $34,000 in Liberty County among non-metropolitan counties. 7M ultiple county MSAs are as follows: Daytona Beach MSA includes Flagler and Volusia Counties. Ft. PiercePo rt S t. Lucie MSA includes Martin and St. Lucie Counties. Jacksonville MSA includes Clay, Duval, Nassau and S t. Johns Counties. Orlando MSA includes Lake, Orange, Osceola and Seminole Counties. Pensacola MSA includes Escambia and Santa Rosa Counties. Sarasota-Bradenton MSA includes Manatee and Sarasota Counties. T allahassee MSA includes Gadsden and Leon Counties. Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater MSA includes Hernando, H illsborough, Pasco and Pinellas Counties.

PAGE 18

The State of Florida'sH ousing, 200216A relative age index is constructed to compare the average age of housing units in a county or MSA to the state total. A problem with the age variable is that the age of a unit is changed if significant re modeling and renovations have been completed on a unit to reflect the date of those improvements. However, assuming that improvements to a house increase the longevity of the unit, then the improvements may represent a r easonable means to convey the age of the stock. The age variable is also not consistently recorded in all counties. Counties or MSAs with an older housing stock than Florida's average have a relative age index greater than one. Areas with a r elatively young stock have an index less than one. The housing stock in the major MSAs is slightly older than the state average, as the relative age index is 1.04 and the average age is 26 years (rounded) as compared to the state's 25 year average. F or the other MSAs, the index is 0.92 with an average age of 23 years, and the non-MSA counties had an age index of 0.96 with an average age of 24 years. Comparisons at these high levels of aggregation, however, mask significant differences in individual MSAs and counties. For example, with a relative age index of 0.52, Flagler County in the Daytona Beach MSA has the newest housing stock in Florida. This reflects a single-family housing stock in Flagler with an average age of 13 years. Other counties with relative age indexes of 0.75 or below include Clay, St. Johns, Osceola, and Hernando Counties among major MSA counties; Collier, Martin, and S anta Rosa Counties among the other MSAs; and Citrus and Sumter Counties in the non-metropolitan category. Many of the counties with newer housing stocks are coastal counties that have experienced rapid growth, others are suburban counties in growing metropolitan areas. Citrus and Sumter Counties are experiencing growth related to major development targeted to retirement populations S ingle-family housing stocks that are older than the state average are generally found in large urban counties or in the ru ral, interior counties with smaller populations. The oldest single-family stock is in Hamilton County, with a r elative age index of 1.36 and a mean age of 34 years. Other non-metropolitan counties with a relative age index of 1.25 or greater include Bradford, Hamilton, Ha r dee, Holmes, Jackson, and W ashington. Among the metropolitan counties, the oldest housing stock is found in Pinellas County with an average age of 33 years. Miami-Dade County and Duval County (Jacksonville) each had an average age of 32 years. G adsden (31 years), Polk (30 years), and Escambia (30 years) also have relatively old housing stocks. S imilar to the relative age index, a r elative size index also was constructed. This index compares the average size of units in each county or MSA to the state average (several counties include unconditioned space in the measure of unit size with resultant significantly larger size, where identifiable these counties are not reported for the square footage v ariable). The average size of a singlefamily housing unit in the state of Florida is 1,791 square feet and the averages for the major MSAs, other MSAs, and nonmetropolitan areas show little variation around that average.8 Counties with r elative size averages of 1.20 (compared to 1.0 for Florida) or greater include St. J ohns and Manatee. No clear pattern emerges as to characteristics of counties with larger square footage of units. 8S quare footage is a field whose definition varies across the 67 county datasets.

PAGE 19

17Counties with units that are smaller than average are generally nonmetropolitan counties. While a number of non-metropolitan counties had average size indices below 0.9, only a few non-metropolitan counties had relative size indices below 0.85. This index level indicates an average unit size of around 1,500 square feet. Non-metropolitan counties at or below 0.85 include H olmes, Monroe, and Taylor. M etropolitan counties at or below 0.85 we re Lake, Volusia, and Marion. Counties with the largest number of sales transactions in 1999 are, as expected, the largest counties in population. About 61 percent of the single-family transactions in the state in 1999 were in the major MSA counties, with 14.5 percent in the Tampa Bay MSA and 14.4 percent in the Orlando MSA. Among individual counties Broward was the highest with 12.1 percent of the state total while Orange had 7.5 percent and M iami-Dade had 6.9 percent of Florida's 1999 transactions. Over 24 percent of transactions in 1999 were in the three southeast Florida countiesMiamiD ade, Broward, and Palm Beach. Over 33 percent of all sales in 1999 we re in other MSA counties, while the r emaining 5 percent were in the nonmetropolitan counties. Sarasota and Br evard Counties each had 3.5 percent of the state's transactions in 1999, Lee County had 3.3 percent. The turnover rate measures the percentage of total units sold in each area. U nits sold as a percentage of total units in the large MSAs were 7.7 percent. The sales in other MSAs equaled 7.3 percent of total units, in the non-MSA counties they were 5.3 percent. Turnover of single-family housing units is clearly higher in MSAs than in non-MSA counties. Counties with fewer than 100 transactions were small, rural counties including Calhoun, Dixie, Gilchrist, G lades, Hamilton, Jefferson, Lafayette, Liberty, Madison, and Union (with a state low of 23 transactions). The highest single-family median sales prices in 1999 were in Monroe ($226,000), Collier ($179,400), St. J ohns ($162,000), Franklin ($148,000), Ma r tin ($145,000), and Palm Beach ($140,000) Counties. Other counties with median sales prices above $120,000 include Broward, Nassau, Miami-Dade, Lee, Manatee, Seminole, and Walton. All the counties with high median prices are coastal counties. Counties with low median prices include a number with median prices at or below $50,000 in 1999 were: Dixie ($50,000), Holmes ($46,750), Lafayette ($43,500), Liberty ($36,500), and Washington ($49,900). The sales price data further illustrate the differences between urban and rural counties and between coastal and noncoastal counties. The highest mean prices in 1999 are in coastal counties, several of which are not major urban counties (for example, Collier, Franklin, and Ma r tin). At the other extreme, counties with the lowest mean house prices are generally rural, slow growing, and located in the interior of the state.3.3 CondominiumsThe role of condominiums in providing housing in a county is another indicator of the differences in housing stock across counties. Table 3-2 contains summary information on the state's stock of condominiums. As expected, condominiums are an important source of housing in coastal counties where a number of retirees live, but not in interior counties. Summing across counties indicates that there were 1,255,741 condominium housing units in the state

PAGE 20

18 Ta b le 3-1. Single-Family Housing StockTotal % of% ownerassessed % of Total unitsstateoccupiedvalue($mils)state Florida3,699,921100.077.4370,230100.0 Major Metro Areas Ft. Lauderdale MSA Broward County332,5329.080.539,34910.6 Jacksonville MSA Clay County35,7961.084.83,0960.8 Duval County206,2055.679.816,7024.5 Nassau County12,9380.378.51,3560.4 St. Johns County34,1840.979.74,8751.3 MSA total289,1237.880.426,0287.0 Miami MSA Miami-Dade County310,5148.478.737,68910.2 Orlando MSA Lake County54,9231.578.24,6731.3 Orange County207,5185.677.421,4155.8 Osceola County45,5521.265.33,9131.1 Seminole County100,6312.782.810,5332.8 MSA total408,62411.077.540,53410.9 T ampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater MSA Hernando County44,2851.279.23,1220.8 Hillsborough County242,5446.682.221,1055.7 Pasco County100,9252.778.76,9391.9 Pinellas County237,5626.480.621,7145.9 MSA total625,31616.980.852,88114.3 W est Palm Beach-Boca Raton MSA Palm Beach County192,5955.279.131,5278.5 Major MSAs subtotal2,158,70458.379.6228,00861.6 Other MSAs Daytona Beach MSA Flagler County18,8380.575.11,7850.5 Volusia County128,9183.578.310,0582.7 MSA total147,7564.077.911,8423.2 Ft. Myers-Cape Coral MSA Lee County122,8653.370.314,3183.9 Ft. Pierce-Port St. Lucie MSA Martin County37,3201.074.86,3771.7 St. Lucie County59,2531.673.34,3681.2 MSA total96,5732.673.910,7452.9 Ft. Walton Beach MSA Okaloosa County51,0401.471.54,6761.3 Gainesville MSA Alachua County46,0671.279.13,6361.0 Lakeland-Winter Haven MSA Polk County113,0273.174.77,3712.0 Melbourne-Titusville-Palm Bay MSA Brevard County141,1503.880.111,3893.1 Naples MSA Collier County51,7021.469.510,8952.9 Ocala MSA Marion County64,5771.777.34,1391.1 Panama City MSA Bay County44,0291.267.13,1740.9

PAGE 21

19New units Total just % of Average Relative AverageRelative constructed % ofNumber of Median 1999value ($mils)stateageage indexsizesize indexin 1999state1999 salessale price 394,086100.0251.001,7911.0092,234100.0273,308111,000 41,29310.5240.961,9101.078,1108.833,177134,500 3,2490.8180.722,0181.131,3751.53,288106,000 18,0614.6321.281,7720.993,9924.313,70698,000 1,4930.4210.842,0281.135420.6868137,100 5,3751.4160.642,2051.231,8522.03,297162,000 28,1787.2281.121,8651.047,7618.421,159107,900 40,68310.3321.281,8821.053,5043.818,974135,000 4,8041.2230.921,5050.843,1973.55,133105,000 22,2135.6230.921,8991.066,6167.220,518111,000 3,9561.0150.601,8531.032,6142.84,559105,000 10,9142.8210.84 2) 2)2,5462.88,870126,250 41,88810.6210.841,8221.0214,97316.239,080113,000 3,1570.8160.64 2) 2)1,0171.12,69375,000 23,2615.9230.921,8351.026,1486.712,756112,000 7,3071.9220.881,7100.953,1293.49,57679,000 23,6926.0331.321,6730.931,8302.014,683101,000 57,41714.6261.041,7470.9812,12413.139,70896,500 33,5048.5261.04 2) 2)3,4463.714,590140,000 242,96361.7261.041,8311.0249,91854.1166,688118,000 1,8010.5130.522,0771.161,2541.41,413101,100 10,5732.7251.001,5200.852,8463.19,04784,500 12,3743.1240.961,5890.894,1004.410,46086,193 14,9293.8200.80 2) 2)4,5665.09,133123,600 6,7771.7170.681,8931.061,0941.23,167145,000 4,4361.1200.801,5460.861,4491.63,40179,000 11 ,2132.8190.761,6850.942,5432.86,56899,000 4,8991.2220.881,9451.091,3541.53,642100,700 3,9511.0240.961,8851.051,0601.13,243101,500 7,6801.9301.20 2) 2)2,7893.07,34683,000 12,0023.0220.881,5920.893,2783.69,67290,000 12,1743.1160.64 2) 2)2,9943.24,879179,400 4,3971.1200.801,5260.852,3392.54,78079,900 3,2340.8240.961,8141.019621.02,85290,000 continued on next page

PAGE 22

20Pensacola MSA Escambia County84,3792.375.15,1161.4 Santa Rosa County34,9040.977.73,2710.9 MSA total119,2833.275.88,3872.3 Punta Gorda MSA Charlotte County52,2961.472.44,8161.3 Sarasota-Bradenton MSA Manatee County58,1611.677.66,4741.7 Sarasota County99,5262.775.113,0303.5 MSA total157,6874.376.019,5055.3 Ta llahassee MSA Gadsden County9,1410.276.14030.1 Leon County59,1081.675.75,3351.4 MSA total68,2491.875.75,7381.5 Other MSAs subtotal1,276,30134.575.1120,63332.6 Nonmetro County Regions Northwest nonmetropolitan area Calhoun County2,4530.175.7900.0 Franklin County5,1820.144.15400.1 Gulf County4,9460.156.43550.1 Holmes County3,1410.174.81220.0 Jackson County9,5980.373.04070.1 Jefferson County1,9270.172.2780.0 Liberty County1,2380.067.0420.0 Wakulla County4,4410.169.42610.1 Walton County12,2470.357.01,4760.4 Washington County3,9250.170.21640.0 MSA total49,0981.363.83,5331.0 Northeast nonmetropolitan area Baker County2,8730.184.11490.0 Bradford County5,0170.174.32570.1 Columbia County10,1640.378.55560.2 Dixie County2,4230.163.9790.0 Gilchrist County1,6800.074.8840.0 Hamilton County1,8620.172.0710.0 Lafayette County7780.075.4310.0 Levy County5,9440.272.23090.1 Madison County2,9730.171.71160.0 Suwannee County4,9270.175.42340.1 T aylor County4,6770.150.12010.1 Union County1,0780.076.6430.0 MSA total44,3961.272.52,1300.6 Central nonmetropolitan area Citrus County39,3521.179.42,5580.7 Putnam County15,2320.473.28340.2 Sumter County12,7590.377.28240.2 MSA total67,3431.877.64,2171.1 South nonmetropolitan area De Soto County5,0020.170.62670.1 Glades County1,5140.055.8830.0 Hardee County3,8830.176.71650.0 Hendry County4,7140.171.92710.1 Highlands County26,9070.771.21,5300.4 Indian River County33,2160.973.44,1421.1 Monroe County22,7930.654.34,8811.3 Okeechobee County6,0500.271.33690.1 MSA total104,0792.868.211,7083.2 Regional nonmetro subtotal264,9167.270.521,5895.8 1) Less than 25 observations 2) Not available Ta b le 3-1. Single-Family Housing Stock continued Total % of% ownerassessed % of Total unitsstateoccupiedvalue($mils)state

PAGE 23

215,8011.5301.201,7710.991,6681.84,81092,000 3,4920.9180.722,0051.121,5591.72,625104,000 9,2932.4271.081,8391.033,2273.57,43596,000 5,2201.3200.80 2) 2) 2) 2)3,63487,900 6,9461.8251.002,2891.282,2312.45,136122,900 14,1883.6251.001,7010.952,7503.09,672114,300 21,1355.4251.001,9171.074,9815.414,808118,000 4090.1311.241,6330.91850.121269,250 5,6101.4230.921,6080.901,2021.33,95099,000 6,0191.5240.961,6120.901,2871.44,16297,900 128,51932.6230.921,7280.9635,48038.592,61499,000 930.0311.241,6110.90140.06455,000 5670.1291.161,6050.90830.1282148,000 4100.1220.881,6310.911410.2240105,000 1310.0331.321,4800.83290.012046,750 4460.1321.281,7040.95830.129458,000 790.0301.201,7500.98410.05565,000 470.0311.241,5710.8860.03136,500 2730.1200.801,6180.901930.222998,000 1,5770.4200.801,9011.065730.6903130,000 1740.0321.281,6230.91710.111749,900 3,7971.0261.041,7010.951,2341.32,33588,000 1560.0271.081,6810.94720.112679,000 2650.1321.281,6680.93720.119270,000 5800.1281.121,8141.012190.252872,950 810.0291.16 2) 2)110.06550,000 850.0251.001,6880.94390.05571,500 720.0341.361,6120.90290.04753,000 330.0301.201,5790.88190.04043,500 3190.1281.121,6500.92940.119459,950 11 7 0.0240.961,5650.87280.06455,722 2550.1311.241,6350.91990.121660,250 2050.1261.041,5270.85750.118457,342 450.0271.081,7520.98220.023 1) 2,2150.6281.121,6740.937790.81,73465,000 2,6480.7180.72 2) 2)1,0801.22,52769,900 8890.2311.241,9951.111500.256565,000 8530.2170.681,6440.921,4811.633485,750 4,3901.1210.841,8361.032,7112.93,42670,000 2740.1291.161,7120.96570.113370,000 840.0261.041,6090.90280.04763,500 1740.0321.281,5570.87290.012852,000 2710.1240.961,6360.91260.016765,000 1,5410.4210.841,7080.954810.51,61364,000 4,2311.1220.881,9411.089991.12,43795,000 5,2521.3261.041,5230.853660.41,687226,000 3760.1240.961,6560.921260.129965,000 12,2023.1230.921,7300.972,1122.36,511100,000 22,6045.7240.961,7260.966,8367.414,00680,500 New units Total just % of Average Relative AverageRelative constructed % ofNumber of Median 1999value ($mils)stateageage indexsizesize indexin 1999state1999 salessale price

PAGE 24

22Ta b le 3-2. Condominium Housing StockTotal % of% ownerassessed % of Total unitsstateoccupiedvalue($mils)state Florida1,255,741100.047.4113,273100.0 Major Metro Areas Ft. Lauderdale MSA Broward County207,92916.654.412,53311.1 Jacksonville MSA Clay County1,1010.157.3660.1 Duval County7,0820.657.15400.5 Nassau County2,5940.215.35100.4 St. Johns County7,6850.629.19890.9 MSA total18,4621.539.62,1051.9 Miami MSA Miami-Dade County263,25121.052.124,17721.3 Orlando MSA Lake County2,5130.257.31810.2 Orange County30,1472.431.33,4983.1 Osceola County3,2910.38.51,0450.9 Seminole County8,1240.656.43880.3 MSA total44,0753.535.75,1124.5 T ampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater MSA Hernando County6460.145.2320.0 Hillsborough County20,8531.756.41,1561.0 Pasco County10,8710.952.04780.4 Pinellas County88,0277.051.56,0975.4 MSA total120,3979.652.37,7636.9 W est Palm Beach-Boca Raton MSA Palm Beach County258,44020.654.923,98821.2 Major MSAs subtotal912,55472.752.475,67966.8 Other MSAs Daytona Beach MSA Flagler County1,6060.135.31580.1 Volusia County21,5491.733.01,8231.6 MSA total23,1551.833.11,9811.7 Ft. Myers-Cape Coral MSA Lee County51,4564.131.25,6955.0 Ft. Pierce-Port St. Lucie MSA Martin County13,2081.148.89490.8 St. Lucie County12,0191.035.89820.9 MSA total25,2272.042.61,9301.7 Ft. Walton Beach MSA Okaloosa County9,3240.79.21,3921.2 Gainesville MSA Alachua County3,0900.245.01400.1 Lakeland-Winter Haven MSA Polk County6,8760.534.42830.2 Melbourne-Titusville-Palm Bay MSA Brevard County23,3191.944.71,5301.4 Naples MSA Collier County69,2515.528.610,1429.0 Ocala MSA Marion County6,1160.564.33370.3 Panama City MSA Bay County10,1610.89.59310.8

PAGE 25

23New units Total just % of Average Relative constructed % ofNumber of Median 1999value ($mils)stateageage indexin 1999state1999 salessale price 1 15,995100.0181.0012,435100.0108,28787,000 12,97011.2 2) 2) 2) 2)15,83657,900 680.1170.9430.010566,500 6100.5 2) 2) 2) 2)69277,000 5230.5181.001301.0355240,000 1,0510.9 2) 2) 2) 2)700126,000 2,2531.9181.001331.11,852107,000 24,81021.4 2) 2) 2) 2)25,36393,100 1850.2181.00140.121865,500 3,5353.0 2) 2) 2) 2)2,14860,000 1,0450.9130.722912.320787,900 3960.3211.17300.281158,500 5,1624.5191.063352.73,38462,000 320.0120.6700.04858,650 1,2231.1170.943542.81,30769,000 4890.4191.06240.288247,000 6,3145.4221.222992.47,63566,000 8,0596.9211.176775.49,87264,900 24,27520.9170.945,15341.418,544102,000 77,52866.8181.006,29850.674,85180,000 1600.1181.00230.217397,000 1,8651.6 2) 2) 2) 2)2,13692,000 2,0251.7181.00230.22,30993,000 5,7785.0160.891,83514.85,318118,000 9640.8211.1700.01,14563,000 9880.9 2) 2) 2) 2)1,11292,250 1,9531.7211.1700.02,25776,000 1,4131.2 2) 2) 2) 2)901189,000 1450.1150.83720.638359,500 2830.2 2) 2) 2) 2)67649,900 1,5521.3201.113382.72,21977,500 10,4029.0140.782,81222.66,333135,000 3400.3150.83630.550058,250 9420.8150.8390.11,084115,000 continued on next page

PAGE 26

24Pensacola MSA Escambia County4,2760.324.24210.4 Santa Rosa County1,2560.117.41560.1 MSA total5,5320.422.75770.5 Punta Gorda MSA Charlotte County10,9670.929.91,0000.9 Sarasota-Bradenton MSA Manatee County23,0621.850.01,9261.7 Sarasota County43,2503.441.35,8115.1 MSA total66,3125.344.47,7376.8 Ta llahassee MSA Leon County6840.126.3270.0 MSA total6840.126.3270.0 Other MSAs subtotal311,47024.834.833,70329.8 Nonmetro County Regions Northwest nonmetropolitan area Franklin County270.07.420.0 Gulf County360.05.650.0 Wakulla County820.022.060.0 Walton County7,7850.67.11,2641.1 MSA total7,9300.67.21,2771.1 Northeast nonmetropolitan area Bradford County180.088.910.0 Columbia County460.058.730.0 Levy County1800.02.8130.0 T aylor County130.07.710.0 MSA total2570.019.1170.0 Central nonmetropolitan area Citrus County1,4740.140.3680.1 Putnam County1410.031.990.0 Sumter County1060.038.740.0 MSA total1,7210.139.5810.1 South nonmetropolitan area De Soto County4520.042.0260.0 Glades County320.025.020.0 Hardee County2230.026.970.0 Hendry County1390.022.370.0 Highlands County1,3010.142.2540.0 Indian River County11,5150.943.61,2271.1 Monroe County7,9890.616.01,1871.0 Okeechobee County1580.034.250.0 MSA total21,8091.733.02,5152.2 Regional nonmetro subtotal31,7172.526.83,8913.4 1) Less than 25 observations 2) Not availableTa b le 3-2. Condominium Housing Stock continued Total % of% ownerassessed % of Total unitsstateoccupiedvalue($mils)state

PAGE 27

254350.4170.94390.3353106,500 1580.1 2) 2) 2) 2)213190,000 5930.5170.94390.3566130,000 1,0360.9160.89 2) 2)1,00178,000 1,9811.7191.061581.32,07488,000 6,0375.2201.116405.14,538120,000 8,0186.9201.117986.46,612108,000 280.0261.4400.04748,700 280.0261.4400.04748,700 34,50829.7170.945,98948.230,206107,500 2 0.020.1180.113 1) 5 0.0140.7800.03 1) 6 0.0 2) 2) 2) 2)11 1) 1,2711.1 2) 2) 2) 2)1,050175,205 1,2851.190.5080.11,077170,910 1 0.0 2) 2) 2) 2)6 1) 3 0.0211.1700.02 1) 130.0100.56120.118 1) 1 0.0 2) 2) 2) 2)00 180.0130.72120.12692,600 690.1181.0020.014560,000 9 0.0170.9400.012 1) 4 0.0 2) 2) 2) 2)2 1) 820.1181.0020.015960,000 260.0 2) 2) 2) 2)5969,900 2 0.0181.0000.01 1) 7 0.070.39100.119 1) 7 0.0130.7200.013 1) 540.0191.06140.110451,000 1,2531.1191.061020.81,109105,000 1,2201.1 2) 2) 2) 2)644170,000 6 0.0241.3300.019 1) 2,5752.2191.061261.01,968118,200 3,9593.4181.001481.23,230132,000 New units Total just % of Average Relative constructed % ofNumber of Median 1999value ($mils)stateageage indexin 1999state1999 salessale price

PAGE 28

The State of Florida'sH ousing, 200226 Table 3-3. Multi-Family Stock with Two to Nine Units in ComplexTotal Total % of assessed complexes statevalue($mils)Florida150,816100.014,743 Major Metro Areas Ft. Lauderdale MSA Broward County19,73813.12,386 Jacksonville MSA Clay County2780.226 Duval County4,6393.1385 Nassau County3080.239 St. Johns County1,7881.2212 MSA total7,0134.7663 Miami MSA Miami-Dade County31,91621.23,716 Orlando MSA Lake County1,1260.791 Orange County10,0566.7679 Osceola County8280.569 Seminole County1,1590.888 MSA total13,1698.7926 T ampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater MSA Hernando County3750.230 Hillsborough County5,2243.5345 Pasco County1,1940.872 Pinellas County13,4298.91,228 MSA total20,22213.41,675 W est Palm Beach-Boca Raton MSA Palm Beach County10,8207.21,050 Major MSAs subtotal102,87868.210,416 Other MSAs Daytona Beach MSA Flagler County3200.231 Volusia County7,8685.2521 MSA total8,1885.4552 Ft. Myers-Cape Coral MSA Lee County5,4803.6494 Ft. Pierce-Port St. Lucie MSA Martin County9190.667 St. Lucie County1,5001.091 MSA total2,4191.6159 Ft. Walton Beach MSA Okaloosa County7260.581 Gainesville MSA Alachua County1,7601.2107 Lakeland-Winter Haven MSA Polk County4,4032.9233 Melbourne-Titusville-Palm Bay MSA Brevard County2,9381.9270 Naples MSA Collier County1,8781.2209 Ocala MSA Marion County1,0720.769

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27continued on next pageNew complexes % ofTotal just % of Average Relativeconstructed% of statevalue($mils)stateageage indexin 1999state 100.015,124100.0351.00463100.0 16.22,46016.3361.03275.8 0.2260.2 2) 2) 2) 2) 2.64052.7481.3730.6 0.3410.3260.7440.9 1.42381.6260.7481.7 4.57114.7411.17153.2 25.23,80125.1401.14439.3 0.6910.6340.97265.6 4.66874.5230.66214.5 0.5690.5240.6920.4 0.6880.6280.8010.2 6.39356.2250.715010.8 0.2310.2170.49122.6 2.33512.3260.7461.3 0.5720.5260.7420.4 8.31,2808.5491.4081.7 1 1.41,73311.5411.17286.0 7.11,0677.1381.09214.5 70.710,70770.8371.0618439.7 0.2310.2170.49173.7 3.55353.5250.719119.7 3.75673.7250.7110823.3 3.45003.3250.71418.9 0.5680.4220.6320.4 0.6910.6340.9730.6 1.11591.1290.8351.1 0.6820.5280.8040.9 0.71080.7290.8381.7 1.62341.5300.8681.7 1.82751.8371.0681.7 1.42121.4250.71153.2 0.5700.5240.6940.9

PAGE 30

The State of Florida'sH ousing, 200228Panama City MSA Bay County7540.569 Pensacola MSA Escambia County1,8701.2136 Santa Rosa County6300.457 MSA total2,5001.7192 Punta Gorda MSA Charlotte County9030.696 Sarasota-Bradenton MSA Manatee County4,5503.0434 Sarasota County2,2771.5262 MSA total6,8274.5696 Ta llahassee MSA Gadsden County110.08 Leon County2,0351.3168 MSA total2,0461.4176 Other MSAs subtotal41,89427.83,405 Nonmetro County Regions Northwest nonmetropolitan area Calhoun County30.02 Franklin County160.04 Gulf County30.01 Holmes County70.01 Jackson County610.012 Jefferson County130.03 Liberty County20.00 Wakulla County170.01 Walton County430.06 Washington County100.03 MSA total1750.132 Northeast nonmetropolitan area Baker County240.04 Bradford County180.01 Columbia County2090.119 Dixie County30.00 Gilchrist County80.01 Hamilton County170.04 Lafayette County40.00 Levy County670.06 Madison County370.04 Suwannee County440.03 T aylor County80.0 2) Union County90.01 MSA total4480.344 Central nonmetropolitan area Citrus County3740.223 Putnam County1340.18 Sumter County740.05 MSA total5820.436 South nonmetropolitan area De Soto County1670.110 Glades County350.02 Hardee County1130.16 Hendry County3860.325 Highlands County7100.537 Indian River County7280.565 Monroe County2,5831.7656 Okeechobee County1170.18 MSA total4,8393.2810 Regional nonmetro subtotal6,0444.0922 1) Less than 25 observations 2) Not availableTa b le 3-3. Multi-Family Stock with Two to Nine Units in Complex continuedTotal Total % of assessed complexes statevalue($mils)

PAGE 31

290.5690.5200.57112.4 0.91410.9320.91143.0 0.4570.4190.5420.4 1.31981.3290.83163.5 0.7980.7240.69 2) 2) 2.94483.0340.9751.1 1.82651.8361.0371.5 4.77134.7351.00122.6 0.180.1 1) 1)00.0 1.11681.1270.7791.9 1.21771.2270.7791.9 23.13,46122.9290.8324953.8 0.020.0 1) 1)00.0 0.040.0 1) 1)00.0 0.010.0 1) 1)00.0 0.010.0 1) 1)00.0 0.1120.1180.5100.0 0.030.0 1) 1)00.0 0.000.0 1) 1)10.2 0.010.0 1) 1)00.0 0.070.0130.3700.0 0.030.0 1) 1)10.2 0.2330.2180.5120.4 0.040.0 1) 1)20.4 0.010.0 1) 1)00.0 0.1190.1240.6910.2 0.000.0 1) 1)00.0 0.010.0 1) 1)00.0 0.040.0 1) 1)00.0 0.000.0 1) 1)00.0 0.060.0250.7110.2 0.040.0180.5100.0 0.030.0230.6600.0 2) 2) 2) 2) 2) 2) 2) 0.010.0 1) 1)00.0 0.3440.3250.7140.9 0.2230.2220.6351.1 0.180.1320.9100.0 0.050.0220.6310.2 0.2360.2240.6961.3 0.1110.1290.8300.0 0.020.0250.7100.0 0.060.0340.9700.0 0.2250.2300.8610.2 0.3370.2320.9110.2 0.4660.4300.8651.1 4.56884.6401.14112.4 0.180.1290.8300.0 5.58435.6361.03183.9 6.39556.3330.94306.5New complexes % ofTotal just % of Average Relativeconstructed% of statevalue($mils)stateageage indexin 1999state

PAGE 32

The State of Florida'sH ousing, 200230 Table 3-4. Multi-Family Stock with Ten or More Units in ComplexTotal Total % ofAssessed % of complexesstatevalue($mils)state Florida13,624100.026,941100.0 Major Metro Areas Ft. Lauderdale MSA Broward County1,80013.24,39116.3 Jacksonville MSA Clay County400.31330.5 Duval County5333.91,6796.2 Nassau County330.2210.1 St. Johns County370.31420.5 MSA total6434.71,9747.3 Miami MSA Miami-Dade County3,94529.05,15719.1 Orlando MSA Lake County1090.81050.4 Orange County7135.23,12411.6 Osceola County800.62991.1 Seminole County3022.21,0143.8 MSA total1,2048.84,54216.9 T ampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater MSA Hernando County460.3300.1 Hillsborough County7685.62,4649.1 Pasco County1290.91460.5 Pinellas County7785.71,5115.6 MSA total1,72112.64,15015.4 W est Palm Beach-Boca Raton MSA Palm Beach County7685.62,0547.6 Major MSAs subtotal10,08174.022,26982.7 Other MSAs Daytona Beach MSA Flagler County50.040.0 Volusia County4853.63591.3 MSA total4903.63631.3 Ft. Myers-Cape Coral MSA Lee County1561.14341.6 Ft. Pierce-Port St. Lucie MSA Martin County600.4860.3 St. Lucie County620.5750.3 MSA total1220.91620.6 Ft. Walton Beach MSA Okaloosa County1441.11200.4 Gainesville MSA Alachua County3822.85161.9 Lakeland-Winter Haven MSA Polk County2912.12500.9 Melbourne-Titusville-Palm Bay MSA Brevard County2752.04251.6 Naples MSA Collier County930.73801.4 Ocala MSA Marion County850.61090.4 Panama City MSA Bay County1260.91210.4

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31continued on next pageNew complexesTotal just % ofAverageRelativeconstructed % ofvalue($mils)stateageage indexin 1999state 26,945100.0301.00177100.0 4,39316.3301.00126.8 1330.5 2) 2) 2) 2) 1,6796.2280.9342.3 210.1230.7710.6 1420.5130.4310.6 1,9747.3270.9063.4 5,15819.1361.202111.9 1050.4210.7031.7 3,12411.6220.733620.3 2991.1150.5042.3 1,0143.8180.6063.4 4,54216.9200.674927.7 300.1170.5700.0 2,4649.1240.802212.4 1460.5210.7021.1 1,5115.6351.1721.1 4,15015.4290.972614.7 2,0547.6290.971910.7 22,27282.7311.0313375.1 4 0.0 1) 1)00.0 3591.3381.2710.6 3631.3381.2710.6 4341.6210.7063.4 870.3230.7700.0 750.3240.8031.7 1620.6240.8031.7 1200.4210.7042.3 5161.9220.7352.8 2500.9270.9021.1 4251.6280.9331.7 3801.4170.5774.0 1090.4220.7310.6 1210.4200.6710.6

PAGE 34

The State of Florida'sH ousing, 200232Ta ble 3-4. Multi-Family Stock with Ten or More Units in Complex continuedPensacola MSA Escambia County1311.02410.9 Santa Rosa County470.3270.1 MSA total1781.32681.0 Punta Gorda MSA Charlotte County230.2160.1 Sarasota-Bradenton MSA Manatee County1290.93741.4 Sarasota County2071.53671.4 MSA total3362.57412.8 Ta llahassee MSA Gadsden County440.330.0 Leon County3252.45061.9 MSA total3692.75091.9 Other MSAs subtotal3,07022.54,41216.4 Nonmetro County Regions Northwest nonmetropolitan area Calhoun County30.000.0 Franklin County250.250.0 Gulf County40.040.0 Holmes County60.030.0 Jackson County140.130.0 Jefferson County60.010.0 Wakulla County10.010.0 Walton County540.4170.1 Washington County30.010.0 MSA total1160.9350.1 Northeast nonmetropolitan area Baker County10.010.0 Bradford County110.180.0 Columbia County230.2140.1 Dixie County40.010.0 Gilchrist County 2) 2) 2) 2) Lafayette County10.010.0 Levy County100.150.0 Madison County50.030.0 Suwannee County150.190.0 T aylor County30.0 2) 2) Union County40.010.0 MSA total770.6420.2 Central nonmetropolitan area Citrus County470.3180.1 Putnam County270.2180.1 Sumter County430.380.0 MSA total1170.9440.2 South nonmetropolitan area De Soto County330.2100.0 Glades County40.010.0 Hardee County80.150.0 Hendry County140.1100.0 Highlands County550.4220.1 Indian River County410.3550.2 Monroe County60.0350.1 Okeechobee County20.010.0 MSA total1631.21390.5 Regional nonmetro subtotal4733.52601.0 1) Less than 25 observations 2) Not available Total Total % ofAssessed % of complexesstatevalue($mils)state

PAGE 35

332410.9220.7331.7 270.1180.6021.1 2681.0220.7352.8 160.1 1) 2) 2) 2) 3741.4270.9000.0 3671.4331.1010.6 7412.8311.0310.6 3 0.0270.9000.0 5061.9260.8721.1 5091.9260.8721.1 4,41316.4270.904123.2 0 0.0 1) 1)00.0 5 0.0200.6700.0 4 0.0 1) 1)00.0 3 0.0 1) 1)00.0 3 0.0 1) 1)00.0 1 0.0 1) 1)00.0 1 0.0 1) 1)00.0 170.1100.3310.6 1 0.0 1) 1)00.0 350.1150.5010.6 1 0.0 1) 1)00.0 8 0.0 1) 1)00.0 140.1 1) 1)00.0 1 0.0 1) 1)00.0 2) 2) 2) 2) 2) 2) 1 0.0 1) 1)00.0 5 0.0 1) 1)00.0 3 0.0 1) 1)00.0 9 0.0 1) 1)00.0 2) 2) 2) 2) 2) 2) 1 0.0 1) 1)00.0 420.2250.8300.0 180.1160.5300.0 180.1180.6000.0 8 0.0270.9000.0 440.2210.7000.0 100.0210.7000.0 1 0.0 1) 1)00.0 5 0.0 1) 1)00.0 100.0 1) 1)10.6 220.1220.7300.0 550.2220.7310.6 350.1 1) 1)00.0 1 0.0 1) 1)00.0 1390.5230.7721.1 2601.0210.7031.7New complexesTotal just % ofAverageRelativeconstructed % ofvalue($mils)stateageage indexin 1999state

PAGE 36

The State of Florida'sH ousing, 200234in 2000. Approximately 47 percent of these units are owner-occupied, much less than the 77 percent owner-occupied percentage found in the detached singlefamily stock. A total of 729,620 units, or over 58 percent of condominium units in the state, are located in three southeast F lorida counties: Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach. By contrast, 15 counties report no such units. All of the latter counties are non-MSA counties. In total, the non-MSA counties have 2.5 percent of the total condominiums in the state, and 86 percent of these are found in three counties: Indian River, Monroe, and Walton. Other coastal metropolitan counties have a much smaller stock of condominium units than the three southeast counties, but condominiums still play a major role in the provision of housing in those counties. For example, Collier County's 69,251 condominium units far exceed the 51,702 single-family housing units in the county. Condominium units also exceed singlefamily units in Palm Beach County. O ther counties with large numbers of condominiums are Lee, Manatee, P inellas, and Sarasota. D iscussion of the characteristics of condominiums in the state is limited by the lack of data in a number of the data fields in some counties. These fields include year built, age, and price. The following description is based on the available data. The mean age of condominium units for the state of Florida is approximately 18 years, below the 25-year average for single-family units. Some of the newest condominium stocks are located in nonmetropolitan counties including F ranklin, with a mean age of 2 years. Among metropolitan counties, H ernando has a mean age of 12 years for condominium units. The number of condominium sales in the state totaled 108,287 units in 1999. Of these over 23 percent occurred in Mi ami-Dade County, 17 percent in Palm Beach County, and over 14 percent in Br o ward County. These three southeast counties accounted for about 55 percent of all condominium transactions in the state. M edian sales prices for condominiums vary widely across counties. The median price of condominium units sold in the state in 1999 was $87,000. Counties with median prices above $125,000 were the $135,000 in Collier County, $170,000 in Monroe County, $240,000 in Nassau County, $189,000 in Okaloosa County, $126,000 in St. Johns County, $190,000 in Santa Rosa County, and $175,205 in W alton County. These are coastal counties and, with a few exceptions, are not part of major MSAs. The relatively high price of portions of the condominium stock in Florida appears to reflect the steep premium paid for the ocean accessibility that is an attribute of many condominiums in coastal settings and the retirement clientele for the units.9Condominium units in the larger counties have lower median sales prices, including $57,900 in Broward, $69,000 in Hillsborough, $93,100 in MiamiD ade, and $60,000 in Orange County. While these counties have high-priced units, the medians indicate a broader market for condominium units.3.4 Multifamily HousingThe county property appraiser data used in this report do not allow an accounting for the number of units in multifamily rental structures, as only information on the structures (parcels) is reported. It is this information that is summarized below. We divide the 9D ata on the average size (square footage) of the condominium stock is not reported because of numerous problems and inconsistencies with the DOR data.

PAGE 37

35multifamily stock, consistent with the appraiser data, into two categories: complexes with less than 10 units and complexes with 10 or more units. T able 3-3 contains summary information on the state's stock of multifamily properties containing fewer than 10 units. There are about 150,000 multifamily properties that contain fewer than 10 units in the state of Florida. A pproximately 68 percent of these are found in the six major metropolitan areas, with another almost 28 percent located in other metropolitan areas. O nly four percent of these small multifamily complexes are found in nonMSA counties. Over 21 percent of the units in this category are found in MiamiD ade County. Only ten of the 33 nonMSA counties have more than 100 such complexes, with Monroe having over 40 percent of the non-MSA total. Other non-MSA counties with more than 100 properties were Columbia, Citrus, P utnam, DeSoto, Hardee, Hendry, H ighlands, Indian River, and O keechobee Counties. These numbers again point to the differences that are observed between the urban, coastal counties and the rural, interior counties of Florida. As with condominium units, which are also likely found in multifamily structures, it is apparent that urban and coastal counties are the predominant settings for such structures while the rural and interior counties are characterized by a largely single-family housing stock. The mean age of multifamily complexes containing 9 or fewer units is 35 years for the state. Counties with the oldest average ages (and at least 100 properties) include Duval (48), MiamiD ade (40), Monroe (40), and Pinellas (49). Counties with more than 100 properties and a relative age index of below 0.6 (the state index is 1.0) include Ba y, F lagler, Hernando, and Santa Rosa. The latter counties have either experienced recent growth or have little multifamily stock so that their average is impacted by one or a few projects. T able 3-4 contains information on multifamily complexes with 10 or more units. With a total of 13,624 complexes in the state, there are about 9 percent as many of these larger complexes as of complexes with less than 10 units, but these complexes undoubtedly comprise more total units than the smaller complexes. About 29 percent of these larger complexes are located in MiamiD ade County, with about 13 percent in Br ow ard County and in the Tampa Bay MSA. The six major MSAs contain approximately 74 percent of all complexes of this type. The other MSAs contain over 22 percent of the state total, with Volusia, Alachua, and Leon Counties having more than 300 complexes. The Alachua and Leon numbers reflect the concentration of college students in those communities. N on-MSA counties contain only 3.5 percent of the state's stock of larger apartment complexes. The average age of these larger complexes is 30 years. Miami-Dade (36 years), Pinellas (35 years), and Vo lusia (38 years) Counties have r elatively old stocks of larger complexes. At 20 years, the Orlando MSA has the youngest stock of such complexes among the six major MSAs. There were 177 complexes of greater than 10 units constructed in 1999. A bout 75 percent of this construction occurred in the six major MSAs including over 27 percent in the O rlando MSA.

PAGE 38

The State of Florida'sH ousing, 2002363.5 Impact of Housing on the Florida EconomyThere are a number of ways in which the impact of housing on the Florida economy might be measured. For example, we might examine the number of jobs created in the construction and r elated industries, the payroll on those jobs, or the materials cost of a housing unit. We examine two simple measures. F irst, in 1999 there were 273,308 sales of single family housing units (new and existing). With an average sales price of ov er $100,000, these transactions total approximately $27.5 billion in sales. This figure is the basis from which transaction fees, transfer taxes, mortgage fees, purchases of new furnishings and equipment, and other expenditures flowing into the economy are generated. S econd, the total assessed value of the single family housing stock in the state was over $370 billion in 2000. This figure is the basis for property taxes as w ell as a measure of the wealth of households. The figure does not include condominiums, multifamily rental structures, or mobile homes. The Local Economic Impact Model developed by the Economics, Mortgage F inance, and Housing Policy Division of the National Association of Home B uilders in Washington D.C. examines the economic impact of 1,000 new single family homes on a local economy for an average city. Using the same numbers would yield the following impact for the 92,234 new units constructed in the state in 1999: 321,172 jobs, $11.5 billion in local income (local business owners' income and local wages and salaries), and $1.2 billion in local taxes.3.6 SummaryThe county property appraiser data provides a wealth of data on characteristics of the housing stock across the state. The county-by-county and MSA summaries clearly show differences in the importance of single-family properties, condominiums, and multifamily properties. Also apparent are differences across the state in the age and size of units. Finally, there are significant differences in the numbers of transactions each year and in the median values of properties. The differences show that the state might be characterized as two states when thinking about the housing market, with the large urban and coastal counties at one extreme and the small, r ural inland counties at the other. Location, population size and density, and growth rates are among the obvious variables that are not included in this analysis but are reflected in the housing activity across counties. For example, rapidly growing counties have a newer housing stock on average, and coastal counties have higher average property values.

PAGE 39

37 10Affordability indices are calculated by NAR only for the nine largest metropolitan areas in Florida. Moreover, most of these MSAs are recent additions to the report, and thus provide little historical information on how housing affordability has changed over time and across counties. In addition, the affordability indices published by NAR are based only on homes that have sold through the use of a Multiple Listing Service. Thus, the home sales used to calculate the median sale price may not be representative of all housing stock in the area.4. Housing Affordability4.1 IntroductionThe affordability of housing is an important issue nationally and in the state of Florida. Households are concerned about it because affordability affects their ability to become a homeowner, as well as the size and amenities of the home they are able to purchase. Real estate salespersons and other industry participants also are concerned, because the number of households able to afford the purchase of a home is an important determinant of single-family sales activity in their local markets. Housing affordability also has become an important public policy issue, as home ownership is viewed as being an important goal for both individual and societal reasons. Three factors are the primary determinants of the affordability of housing. These are household income, housing prices, and mortgage rates. For a household considering homeownership, an additional factor is the rate of appreciation in housing prices. This chapter begins with a discussion of historic appreciation rates for single family housing. It then investigates issues of housing affordability using a concept called cost burden.4.2 Housing Affordability I ndexThe affordability of housing is a major issue nationally, and it is no different in F lorida. One measure of housing affordability is the cost of homeownership, commonly conveyed through housing affordability indices. These indices generally indicate that affordability increased substantially towards the end of the last decade, primarily as a result of lower interest rates during that period. A housing affordability index for an area brings together the price and the income elements that contribute to housing affordability. The most common index construction method is that used by the N ational Association of Realtors (NAR). The NAR index measures the ability of the median income household in an area to afford a median priced house. In addition to the median income and median house price in an area, index construction requires the current mortgage interest rate, assumptions about the down payment required to purchase the median price home, and the maximum percentage of household income that can be spent on housing. An index of 100 indicates the typical (median) family in the area has sufficient income to purchase a single-family home selling at the median price.10 M edian house prices are calculated from the DOR county property appraiser datasets. M edian household incomes come from data purchased from Claritas, Inc. Although important, median sale prices in a county or MSA do not alone determine housing affordability. A second important factor is the income of area residents. The highest household incomes in Florida are generally in the coastal counties that also contain many high priced housing units. However, median household incomes and singlefamily house prices in an area are only moderately correlated which can lead to significant differences in housing affordability across counties and MSAs. Our index construction method can be represented by the following formula:Affordability Index = M edian family income Qualifying income x 100

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The State of Florida'sH ousing, 200238 11 The NAR also uses the effective mortgage rates supplied by the Federal Housing Finance Board and assumes, as we do, that the income needed to qualitfy for standard financing is four times the annual mortgage payment. Thus, our calculated affordability indexes are directly comparable to those calculated by NAR for the country's largest metropolitan areas.Qualifying income is defined as the income needed to qualify for a mortgage to finance an existing median-priced home. As an example, if median family income in the area is $35,000, the median price of an existing home is $100,000, and the mortgage interest rate is 10 percent, the calculated affordability index is 103.9: The denominator is the annual mortgage payment, multiplied by 4, because the income needed to qualify for a 20 percent down, 10-percent, monthly payment loan is assumed to be four times the annual mortgage payment. This is equivalent to a household spending 25 percent of their monthly income on mortgage costs, and is consistent with the qualifying ratio used by residential mortgage lenders. The calculated index of 103.9 indicates that median household income in the area is slightly (3.9 percent) higher than that needed to qualify for the loan. The higher the calculated affordability index, the easier it is for a household in the area with median income to purchase a medianpriced home. To calculate affordability indices for each county and MSA, mortgage rates for each year are obtained from the F ederal Housing Finance Board. These effective mortgage rates (points are amortized over 10 years) combine fixed and adjustable rate loans.11We calculate affordability indices (T able 4-1) for all counties in Florida and for the years for which we have sufficient data (at least 25 sales each year, as the sales provide the basis for the calculation of a median sales price of a home). Our index calculations differ from those of the NAR because we use the property appraiser data as the source for home sales transaction prices rather than the M ultiple Listing Service¨ used by the R ealtors, and our median income is household rather than family income. Our numbers are therefore not directly comparable, but do give an indication of relative affordability across the state. Consistently across counties and MSAs, the affordability indices show that housing affordability in Florida has improved in the 1990s (i.e. the level of the affordability index has generally increased). Florida's improved housing affordability in the 1990s is consistent with an increase in affordability at the national level. In 1990, the U.S. affordability index was 109.5. In 1999 the index had risen to 139.1. That is, the median household income in the U.S. is 39.1 percent greater than that needed to purchase a median price home (using standard financing). In Florida the median of 67 counties was 121.75 in 1989 and 140.06 in 1999 (the Florida median is not directly comparable to the national number because the Florida median is derived from the 67 county indices). Several factors account for this favorable state and national trend. First, housing prices in many Florida counties and MSAs experienced significantly more appreciation in the 1980s than has been the case in the 1990s, a period during which housing prices have generally, though not always, increased at modest rates. This pattern of price appreciation likely reflects the national recession of early 1990s and, in Florida, the decreased demand for housing as migration flows into the state slowed from the levels experienced in the 1980s. In the calculation of an affordability index, the mortgage interest rate is a key component because of its role in$35,000 4 x 12(0.80 x $100,000) x 0.008776 = 103.9% = $35,000 $33,700

PAGE 41

39determining the qualifying income needed to purchase the median priced house. A second reason for the increased affordability is that mortgage interest rates have declined significantly during the 1990s relative to levels in the 1980s. After averaging 9.8 percent in the 19861990 time period, mortgage rates fell to an average of 9.3 percent in 1991, 8.1 percent in 1992, and 7.2 percent in 1993. Mo r tgage rates in the 1990s remained w ell below their average level during the 1980s. A third factor that has contributed to increased affordability in the 1990s is the steady increase in median household incomes. In fact, median incomes generally have increased faster than median house prices over the 1990s time period. This increase in median incomes may be a result of the aging of the population, leading to more skills and higher pay, among other factors. In interpreting the affordability indices for each county, several caveats should be considered. First, as a result of the limited sales transactions in some smaller counties, the median sale price may vary considerably from year to year. This fluctuation in the estimated median house price produces an exaggerated v ariability in the calculated affordability index. Second, the calculation of the index using median house prices and incomes may mask the distribution of affordability across the various income brackets within a county or MSA. For example, if house prices in a county tend to be tightly distributed around their median value, while incomes are more widely dispersed, then affordability problems will exist at the lower income ranges that are not identified by the affordability index. Thus, standard indices based on median house prices and median incomes are only one measure of housing affordability. What the affordability indices provide is an indication of the relative change in affordability within counties over time, and the relative affordability of housing across counties. Although counties throughout the state have generally experienced improved housing affordability in the 1990s, considerable differences exist across counties when they are compared in 1999. Table 4-2 ranks the affordability of each county. Only eight Florida counties had an affordability index below 100 in 1999. The least affordable counties [i.e., those with ranks closer to 66, only 66 counties are included because insufficient sales precluded the inclusion of Union County] included a major metropolitan county in Miami-Dade, which ranked 62nd of the 66 counties, two suburban counties in major metropolitan areas (St. Johns, ranked 60 and located in the Jacksonville MSA, and Lake, ranked 59 and located in the Orlando MSA), and coastal counties in south Florida and on the panhandle, including Collier (63), Gulf (61), F ranklin (66), Monroe (65), and Walton (64). The least affordable of all counties is Franklin with an affordability index of 56.73, likely reflecting the growth in re tirement and second homes in the county in the 1990s driving up the median house price. Monroe (the Florida K eys), a growth restricted county with a unique environment, is the second least affordable with an affordability index of 72.74. The index exceeds the 1999 national average of 139.1 in 34 of the 66 counties. At the other extreme, the most affordable counties are generally rural counties in the interior of the state, mostly in the north part of the state. Liberty County is Florida's most affordable county in 1999 (index = 277.3) and has the lowest median house price in the state. Other top 10 high affordability index counties in 1999 include Lafayette, Hardee, Washington, B radford, Taylor, Holmes, Calhoun, B aker, and Madison. These counties are inland, rural, and characterized by r elatively low median house prices. It should be emphasized that most of the counties with the highest affordability indices also had fewer than 200

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The State of Florida'sH ousing, 200240 Table 4-1 Affordability Index19891992 Major Metro Areas Fort Lauderdale PMSA Broward2)2) Jacksonville MSA Clay129.38163.13 Duval2)2) Nassau123.90136.11 Saint Johns108.48128.92 Miami PMSA Miami-Dade87.61105.23 Orlando MSA Lake113.50124.34 Orange106.34130.59 Osceola104.30127.23 Seminole114.30148.41 T ampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater MSA Hernando119.20151.23 Hillsborough108.83135.01 Pasco2)2) Pinellas103.85132.01 W est Palm Beach-Boca Raton MSA Palm Beach88.61114.34 Other Metro Areas Daytona Beach MSA Flagler87.15116.31 V olusia2)2) Fort Myers-Cape Coral MSA Lee106.82128.33 Fort Pierce-Port St. Lucie MSA Martin89.36113.48 Saint Lucie115.12168.69 Fort Walton Beach MSA Okaloosa118.21145.54 Gainesville MSA Alachua2)2) Lakeland-Winter Haven MSA Polk121.33146.99 Melbourne-Titusville-Palm Bay MSA Brevard121.75155.77 Naples MSA Collier93.59102.29 Ocala MSA Marion113.59157.05 Panama City MSA Bay125.00145.96 Pensacola MSA Escambia122.57144.82 Santa Rosa127.33150.25

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41continued on next page 199419951996199719981999 2)2)2)2)2)105.29 163.40145.75159.29156.64167.99157.18 2)2)2)143.73151.91151.94 134.06126.34123.77117.39120.80114.09 107.2897.02102.6299.65106.6198.74 94.0282.8190.9388.0194.0893.46 1 13.22111.99109.17109.12108.0699.46 123.19128.53132.26133.96139.75136.25 1 16.71117.42125.58121.01118.14110.46 142.49134.33144.94146.89151.01149.15 136.72136.56134.91145.81147.38142.08 131.58126.71133.41135.56141.03138.15 2)2)2)2)2)143.48 122.76120.42126.60134.10137.50134.58 1 12.23108.71117.78115.29133.70131.14 106.3496.61117.51132.55133.64121.40 2)2)2)2)2)136.74 11 1.92105.01106.57105.91115.51112.34 103.89104.64103.67102.12115.02108.91 157.19147.24154.37156.14156.95153.52 142.29133.81142.26142.22145.54149.13 2)113.74115.52113.48116.16113.87 139.88137.59139.78144.89156.23147.55 151.42147.59150.85148.07148.75147.50 98.3988.7597.0094.9698.1293.38 127.14125.34133.12132.04136.99136.93 149.03136.71143.18139.72140.53143.18 158.13163.17147.91136.80142.96137.96 138.40126.71138.39131.59136.48134.06

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The State of Florida'sH ousing, 20024219891992 Major Metro AreasTa b le 4-1 Affordability Index continued Punta Gorda MSA Charlotte113.40142.44 Sarasota-Bradenton MSA Manatee94.99122.53 Sarasota111.27140.30 Ta llahassee MSA Gadsden127.54138.78 Leon124.47142.58 Nonmetro County Regions Northwest nonmetro area Calhoun156.75186.57 Franklin188.59123.48 Gulf147.19167.16 Holmes132.27214.40 Jackson132.75151.73 Jefferson2)2) Liberty2)2) W akulla171.01189.88 W alton122.86169.54 W ashington175.44180.16 Northeast nonmetro area Baker2)176.73 Bradford164.21197.56 Columbia125.29139.15 Dixie153.13198.51 Gilchrist153.88176.60 Hamilton2)2) Lafayette2)2) Levy103.20158.35 Madison117.59228.77 Suwannee2)207.12 T aylor172.60199.46 Union2)2) Central nonmetro area Citrus102.48154.44 Putnam128.93149.55 Sumter2)2) South nonmetro area DeSoto133.29159.84 Glades138.25133.25 Hardee160.56254.60 Hendry142.60143.33 Highlands115.03156.50 Indian River2)2) Monroe60.5782.24 Okeechobee136.85162.21 2) = data not available

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43199419951996199719981999 125.44119.95130.38130.01136.12133.09 120.35117.24120.23119.24121.14113.06 125.65126.25136.04132.73145.64135.67 140.95131.23144.20121.45133.20135.20 140.80129.89138.15145.44146.67151.97 189.40172.54179.84183.06197.40169.09 89.8580.7475.8786.5366.2156.73 142.22137.28161.99141.61123.9896.12 168.14197.92176.34204.04197.12170.48 182.76157.28160.45149.20155.15154.75 219.79240.65176.37176.65190.74161.02 2)264.642)2)295.88277.36 154.87138.08134.89140.86136.22141.08 1 18.03103.74103.0689.2288.1786.94 171.93182.72178.49171.46175.09178.10 195.67189.34185.12159.80171.26167.26 201.03184.66172.97188.56198.13174.53 154.60152.04167.16161.17156.97140.33 196.89192.71165.402)182.43137.65 124.43190.33141.26124.33141.92128.29 188.93185.092)146.83141.75146.50 2)2)2)2)209.57209.24 153.49135.02148.48130.42160.42140.82 216.56214.23177.88166.05174.13165.69 157.15173.53156.84142.31169.98148.53 147.20180.41179.37197.31198.06170.53 2)2)2)362.842)2) 148.84134.16143.10153.11146.62132.55 146.28155.86157.73167.84172.72153.77 2)2)2)2)150.78107.57 182.96171.48158.41173.56150.30139.78 141.49142.79187.49162.45149.17131.90 252.68210.55219.74199.65200.78179.90 157.93150.26146.85165.80189.89159.81 149.69130.69134.03140.93159.69146.58 146.38145.46147.72151.74170.00165.17 73.3464.2970.8368.6074.2672.74 145.86144.35159.59145.63152.43150.37

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The State of Florida'sH ousing, 200244 Table 4-2 Affordability Index and Rank 1=highest AI (most affordable)19991999 County IndexRank Liberty277.361 Lafayette209.242 Hardee179.903 W ashington178.104 Bradford174.535 T aylor170.536 Holmes170.487 Calhoun169.098 Baker167.269 Madison165.6910 Indian River165.1711 Jefferson161.0212 Hendry159.8113 Clay157.1814 Jackson154.7515 Putnam153.7716 Saint Lucie153.5217 Leon151.9718 Duval151.9419 Okeechobee150.3720 Seminole149.1521 Okaloosa149.1322 Suwannee148.5323 Polk147.5524 Brevard147.5025 Highlands146.5826 Hamilton146.5027 Pasco143.4828 Bay143.1829 Hernando142.0830 W akulla141.0831 Levy140.8232 Columbia140.3333 19991999 County IndexRank DeSoto139.7834 Hillsborough138.1535 Escambia137.9636 Dixie137.6537 Marion136.9338 V olusia136.7439 Orange136.2540 Sarasota135.6741 Gadsden135.2042 Pinellas134.5843 Santa Rosa134.0644 Charlotte133.0945 Citrus132.5546 Glades131.9047 Palm Beach131.1448 Gilchrist128.2949 Flagler121.4050 Nassau114.0951 Alachua113.8752 Manatee113.0653 Lee112.3454 Osceola110.4655 Martin108.9156 Sumter107.5757 Broward105.2958 Lake99.4659 Saint Johns98.7460 Gulf96.1261 Miami-Dade93.4662 Collier93.3863 W alton86.9464 Monroe72.7465 Franklin56.7366 Unionnana

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45transactions in 1999. The small number of transactions is not surprising in small counties, but may be indicative of the level of competition in the market and therefore the pressure on housing prices. Also, with so few transactions, the estimated median house price is subject to more random variation from year to y ear, and thus likely overstates the true v ariation in affordability in these small counties.4.3 Cost BurdenThe affordability index indicates that housing became more affordable in F lorida in the late 1990s as compared to the early part of the decade. The primary factor in increasing affordability is the decline in mortgage interest rates during the period. Ho wever, the use of indices focuses only on the average and masks what is happening at the low end. In addition, the index reported only examines owner-occupied housing. For households of lower income, the loss of affordable housing from the stock and price increases that have exceeded the growth in incomes, among other factors, have led to a worsening problem of housing affordability. As a means of examining the number of households with a housing affordability problem, we calculate a number called "cost burden." Our estimate of the number of Florida r enter households paying more than 30 percent of their income toward housing costs. The 30 percent figure corresponds to that used in federal housing programs and is a common standard used to assess housing affordability problems. Our calculation is for renter households only. While over 20 percent of the State's o wner households are also cost burdened, the renter households are the target of most assistance programs historically. Our estimate is that in the year 2002 there were about 1.9 million renter households in Florida (Table 4-3). Of these households, about 794,000 were cost burdened, representing over 41 percent of all renters. Of the households paying more than 30 percent of their income toward rent, over 300,000 (almost 38 percent) pay more than 50 percent. Most of the households paying more than 50 percent of their income toward housing costs had incomes below 50 percent of the median income for their area. A bout 20 percent of the cost burdened r enter households reside in Miami-Dade County. With 11.5 percent in Broward County and 6.5 percent in Palm Beach County, our estimate is that more than one-third, 38 percent, of cost burdened households are located in the three south F lorida counties. An additional 15 percent of the state's cost burdened households are in the Tampa Bay metropolitan area, so that a total of 53 percent of Florida's renter households experiencing cost burden are located in four MSAs. Table 4-3 Cost Burden Income: Percent ofCostCost Area MedianBurdenBurden FamilyAll Renters>30%>50% <20%203,679143,328126,118 20-29.9%150,316118,60991,328 30-39.9%143,884118,97068,525 40-49.9%144,200113,10936,349 50-60%150,885104,35916,055 60+ %1,123,762195,46814,118 T otal1,916,726793,843352,493

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The State of Florida'sH ousing, 2002465. Florida Housing P rice Trends: Market Comparisons and Fo r ecastsD ean H. Gatzlaff, Ph.D. FSU Real Estate Center College of Business The Florida State University5.1 IntroductionThe value of Florida's residential real estate constitutes a sizable portion of the state's wealth, and expected changes in property values can dramatically influence the state's economy. The wealth and prosperity of most homeowners is more affected by movements in the market value of their personal residence than by changes in the v alue of any other real or financial asset. The purpose of this report is to document single-family house price movements for the state of Florida. This report is organized as follows. In the next section, Section 5-2, Floridawide single-family house price indices are r eported for the 1971 to 2000 period and compared with changes in the consumer price index (CPI-U), the broad stock market index (S&P500), and a long-term government bond index. In Section 53, relative house price appreciation rates in Florida's 11 planning districts from 1981 to 2000 are compared and contrasted. In addition, house price movements in the larger urban areas are compared to the smaller, more rural areas. A comparison of relative house price appreciation among the 20 Florida MSAs is presented in Section 5-4. Section 5-5 r eports average annual house price movements from 1996 to 2000 for individual counties where sufficient data are available. County transaction data we re aggregated where adequate data we re not available to provide reasonably r eliable results. Projected house price appreciation rates are reported for the 2001 to 2010 period in Section 5-6.N ote: 2001 values are preliminary. House price appreciation rates are derived from the Florida H ouse Price Index (all counties) for years 1981 to 2001, and from the Florida House Price Index (six largest MSAs) for years 1971 to 1980. General inflation is derived from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index (CPI-U). 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.501970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 Index Level-5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0Apprec., Inflation (%) Annual Price Change Price Index Inflation Figure 3: Florida Annual House Price Index and Appreciation (1971-2000)

PAGE 49

475.2Statewide Measures of S ingle-Family House Prices in FloridaThe annual movements in the overall price of single-family housing in Florida for the last 30 years is summarized in F igure 3 and Table 5-1 below. Figure 3 indicates annual house price appreciation in the state of Florida climbed as high as 17.5 percent in 1978 and experienced declines of nearly 1 percent in 1977 and 1991. In the inflationary 1970s, house prices increased dramatically and were characterized by both high levels of appreciation and volatility. During this period, annual appreciation rates averaged 9.52 percent statewide. This is contrasted with an annual inflation rate of 8.11 percent. Hence, inflationadjusted house prices increased, on average, 1.41 percent per year (0.0952 0.0811 = 0.0141). W ith the exception of 1981 (when appreciation was 7.25 percent), annual house price changes in the 1980s were r elatively moderatehovering between 1.89 and 3.02 percent. Annual house price appreciation averaged only 2.99 percent for the period, compared to an average inflation rate of 4.51. Thus, inflation-adjusted house price increases we re negative at 1.52 percent. In fact, only in 1986 did house price appreciation exceed inflation during this decade. This characteristic continued through the first half of the 1990s. However, a reversal of this trend occurred in the mid-1990s and continued through the last half of the 1990s. On average, from 1991 to 1995 F lorida house prices increased at a rate of 1.53 percent per year compared to average inflation rates of 2.98 percent. In contrast, the 1996 to 2000 period saw house prices increase 4.66 percent per year, wh ile general inflation slowed to 2.54 percent to yield a historically high inflation-adjusted rate of appreciation of 2.12 percent. This trend appears to have continued into the year 2001, where preliminary estimates indicate house appreciation rates of 6.01 percent during a period experiencing only 1.55 percent inflation. Over the 30-year period nominal house price returns averaged approximately 10 percent per year. ThisN ote: 2001 values are preliminary. House price appreciation rates are derived from the Florida H ouse Price Index (all counties) for years 1981 to 2001, and from the Florida House Price Index (six largest MSAs) for years 1971 to 1980. General inflation is derived from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index (CPI-U). Returns to housing assume a five-percent long-run dividend to housing from implicit rent. Returns to stocks (S&P500) and bonds (Long-Term Government Bonds) are as r eported by Ibbotson Associates (Stocks, Bonds, Bills and Inflation, 2001). Ta b le 5-1. Summary of Florida House Price Appreciation, Housing Returns, Inflation, and Selected Asset Classes (1971-2000)NominalRealNominalNominalNominal House PriceGeneralHouse PriceReturns toReturns toReturns to Apprec.InflationApprec.HousingStocksBonds 1971-1980Annual Mean9.528.111.4114.5210.344.11 1981-1990Annual Mean2.994.51-1.527.9914.6314.51 1991-2000Annual Mean3.102.760.338.1018.3911.00 1971-2000Annual Mean5.205.130.0810.2014.459.87 1971-2000Std. Dev.5.043.281.75n.a.16.8512.14 2001-prelim.Annual Mean6.011.554.4611.01-11.883.91

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The State of Florida'sH ousing, 200248rate includes an implicit rent of 5 percent that is necessary to compute for homeownership.12 This rate compares favorably to average annual rates of 14.45 and 9.87 percent for stocks (S&P 500) and bonds (long-term government bonds), respectively. A wide deviation in relative returns between single-family housing, stocks, and bonds can be seen in the 10-year summaries of the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s. It is interesting to note the preliminary 2001 annual returns are 11.01 percent for housing, compared to -11.88, 3.91, and 1.55 percent rates for stocks, bonds and the CPI, r espectivelyan exceptionally strong r elative performance period or housing. If accurate when adjusted to reflect all activity, 2001 figures would represent the highest inflation-adjusted appreciation rate for housing since the late 1970s.135.3District-Level Measures of S ingle-Family House Price A ppreciation in FloridaA comparison of annual appreciation rates for housing located in large metropolitan areas designated as M etropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) by the U.S. Bureau of the Census versus housing located outside of MSA designated areas is charted in Figure 4. S ingle-family housing located in the nonMSA counties consistently experienced higher rates of appreciation from 1986 to 1998. Only recently, in 1999 and 2000, have house prices increased at a greater rate in the MSAdesignated counties than in the smaller areas. Pr eliminary estimates indicate this trend continues into 2001. Comparing house price movements among the eleven planning districts in Florida reveals some regional patterns.14 F igure 5 charts the average annual house price appreciation for two decades (1981-90 and 1991-2000) for each of the planning 12The implicit rent, or dividend, received by households is based on the concept that homeowners pay rent to themselves in the amount of rent they otherwise would pay to a landlord. It is generally assumed by urban and financial economists to be approximately 4 to 6 percent. Although the dividend for rental housing is generally in the range of 7 to 10 percent, occupants of owner-occupied housing generally consume more (larger) housing relative to the rent the home would command in an open market. Thus, the implied dividend (net rent / market value) they receive for renting, implicitly from themselves, is less as a percent of the value of the asset than traditional rental housing.13Pr eliminary estimates indicate that house prices, adjusted for inflation, have risen quicker during the 1997-2001 period than any other consecutive five-year period reported. Historical appreciation rates have been estimated back to 1970.14The counties included in each of the eleven planning districts are noted in Table 14 at the end of Section 5.N ote: 2001 values are preliminary. House price appreciation rates for "All MSA" and "Non-MSA counties" are derived from aggregate index of all 20 Florida MSAs and the aggregate index estimated for the counties not in any of the 20 Florida MSAs, respectively. -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0%1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000Year(%) All MSAs Non-MSA Counties Figure 4: Florida Annual House Price Appreciation MSA Counties v. Non-MSA Counties (1981-2000)

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49districts. Statewide annual house price appreciation averaged just over 3.0 percent both decades. However, it is clear from Figure 5 that, in general, S outh Florida (i.e., D istricts 8, 9, 10, & 11) experienced higher rates of appreciation in the 1980s than North F lorida (Districts 1, 2, 3, & 4). This trend then reversed in the 1990s. T able 5-2 details the period trends in appreciation across the districts of the state. It is interesting to note that West Fl orida, Northeast F lorida, and the Tam pa Bay area experienced high rates of house price appreciation, relative to the state, in the early 1980s and late 1990s. The second half of the 1980s was marked by high rates of house price appreciation in South F lorida, followed by high rates in West F lorida and the Apalachee districts from 1991-1995. House price indices are r eported for each district in Table 5-3.15Annual rates of house price appreciation and the respective correlation of the 20y ear series are noted in Tables 5-4 and 55. House price movements are found to be highly correlated among Districts 6, 7, 8, and 9 (i.e., through East Central, Central and Southwest Florida, including the Tampa Bay and Orlando areas), and between the districts comprising J acksonville, Orlando, and Tampa.5.4 MSA-Level Measures of S ingle-Family House Price A ppreciation in FloridaAv erage annual rates of appreciation are listed for five-year periods from 19812000 in Table 5-6, as well as the relative ranking of each MSA among the 20 MSAs with respect to house price increases. During the 1980 to 1985 period, the larger MSAs of Jacksonville and Tampa-St. Petersburg led other MSAs in house price appreciation. In the later half of the 1980s, MSAs located in the southern portion of the state, particularly MSAs such as Naples, Punta Go r da, and Ft. Myers in the southeast led the rest of the state in house price increases. The 1991 to 1995 period saw a change in this trend with relatively 15N ote that sufficient transaction data were not available to report 2001 appreciation estimates at the district, MSA, and county level; however, preliminary statewide measures are estimated and reported. 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0%Florida All MSAs Non-MSAs Dist.-1 Dist.-2 Dist.-3 Dist.-4 Dist.-5 Dist.-6 Dist.-7 Dist.-8 Dist.-9 Dist.-10 Dist.-11 Ave Annual Apprec. 1981-1990 1991-2000 Figure 5: Average Annual House Price Appreciation Florida MSAs, Non-MSAs, and Districts (1981-2000)N ote: District 1 (Bay, Escambia, Holmes, Okaloosa, Santa Rosa, W alton, and Washington Cos.), District 2 (Calhoun, Franklin, Gadsden, G ulf, Jackson, Jefferson, Leon, Liberty, and Wakulla Cos.), District 3 (Alachua, Bradford, Columbia, Dixie, Gilchrist, Hamilton, Lafayette, M adison, Suwannee, Taylor, and Union Cos.), District 4 (Baker, Clay, [adeq. data not avail. for Duival], Nassau, Putnam, and St. Johns Cos.), D istrict 5 (Citus, Levy, Marion, and Sumter Cos.), District 6 (Brevard, F lagler, Lake, Orange, Osceola, Seminole, and Volusia Cos.), District 7 (De Soto, Hardee, Highlands, Okeechobee, and Polk Cos.), District 8 (Hernando, Hillsborough, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas, and Sarasota Cos.), D istrict 9 (Charlotte, Collier, Glades, Hendry, and Lee Cos.), District 10 (Indian River, Martin, Palm Beach, and St. Lucie Cos.), and District 11 (Broward, Dade, and Monroe Cos.)

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The State of Florida'sH ousing, 200250rapid appreciation in the northwest area of Florida. During the first half of the 1990s, areas such as Panama City, Ft. W alton Beach, Pensacola, and Tallahassee outperformed all other MSAs with the exception of Miami. In the last half of the 1990s, the trend in house price appreciation looked much like the early 1980s, with Jacksonville, Tampa-St. P etersburg and Naples once again among the state's leaders. It is interesting to note that the Naples and Miami MSAs were among the highest quartile in terms of average annual house price appreciation rates in three of the four five-year periods studied. In addition, most areas experienced periods of rapid growth and slow growth in house prices r elative to the other F lorida MSAs. O nly the SarasotaB radenton and O cala MSAs were ranked in all fivey ear periods among the top 10 (of 20) and bottom 10, r espectively. H ouse price indices are reported for each of the 20 MSAs, as well as the state, all MSAs, and all non-MSA areas in Table 5-7.16Annual rates of appreciation from 1981 to 2000, constructed from the indices listed in T able 5-7, are listed in Table 5-8 for all MSAs in Florida. T able 5-9 lists the correlation coefficients estimated using the 20-year appreciation rates in T able 5-8. As with the District estimates, a strong correlation in the movements of house prices is seen in the central part of the state among the following MSAs: J acksonville, Daytona, Melbourne, O rlando, Lakeland and Tampa-St. P etersburg. Although the Ocala MSA is located among these MSAs the movement of house price in Ocala appears to be fairly independent of the underlying conditions affecting the other 16N ote that adequate data were not available to estimate annual appreciation rates for the Gainesville MSA. In addition, the estimated appreciation rates for the Jacksonville MSA include only Clay, Nassau, and St. Johns counties. They do not include Duval County, due to the limited data available. N ote: Shaded areas denote top quartile ranking. District 1 (Bay, Escambia, Holmes, Okaloosa, Santa Rosa, Walton, and Washington Cos.), D istrict 2 (Calhoun, Franklin, Gadsden, Gulf, Jackson, Jefferson, Leon, Liberty, and Wakulla Cos.), District 3 (Alachua, Bradford, Columbia, Dixie, G ilchrist, Hamilton, Lafayette, Madison, Suwannee, Taylor, and Union Cos.), District 4 (Baker, Clay, [adeq. data not avail. for Duval], Nassau, P utnam, and St. Johns Cos.), District 5 (Citus, Levy, Marion, and Sumter Cos.), District 6 (Brevard, Flagler, Lake, Orange, Osceola, Seminole, and V olusia Cos.), District 7 (De Soto, Hardee, Highlands, Okeechobee, and P olk Cos.), District 8 (Hernando, Hillsborough, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas, and Sarasota Cos.), District 9 (Charlotte, Collier, Glades, Hendry, and Lee Cos.), District 10 (Indian River, Martin, Palm Beach, and St. Lucie Cos.), and District 11 (Broward, Dade, and Monroe Cos.) Table 5-2. Average Annual Percentage Appreciation and Period Rankings by District Five-Year Periods (19812000)1981-851986-901991-951996-00 District(rank)(rank)(rank)(rank) Florida (All Districts)3.432.581.574.67 District 1: West Florida4.15 (3)0.64 (11)3.38 (2)5.01 (3) District 2: Apalach3.54 (5)0.57 (12)3.67 (1)4.50 (6) District 3: North Central Florida3.47 (6)2.38 (5)2.41 (4)4.77 (5) District 4: Northeast Florida6.16 (1)1.79 (9)2.23 (5)5.92 (1) District 5: Withlacoochee2.89 (7)1.38 (10)1.62 (7)3.34 (11) District 6: East Central Florida4.11 (4)2.30 (6)1.01 (9)4.43 (7) District 7: Central Florida2.60 (8)1.80 (8)1.69 (6)4.41 (8) District 8: Tampa4.61 (2)2.02 (7)1.41 (8)5.06 (2) District 9: Southwest Florida1.89 (11)4.38 (1)0.44 (10)4.23 (9) District 10: Treasure Coast2.58 (9)3.44 (3)0.15 (11)4.23 (9) District 11: South Florida2.23 (10)3.79 (2)2.47 (3)4.89 (4)

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51MSAs. In addition, house price movements in the MSAs in the most southern areas (i.e., Miami, Ft. Lauderdale, and West Palm Beach) of the state are highly correlated, as are the Ft. P ierce, Naples, and Ft. Myers areas. Table 5-9 gives further evidence that, with some exceptions, the state's housing market can be broadly described in terms of three general marketsnorth, central and south.5.5 County-Level Measures of H ouse Price Appreciation in FloridaEstimates of house price appreciation for the 1996 to 2000 period are reported for all Florida counties, listed by district, in Tables 5-10 and 5-11. Estimates are r eported for all counties having sufficient transaction information. In some districts, the small counties are grouped to provide more reliable estimates. D uring the 1996 to 2000 period, annual house price appreciation rates exceeded 6 percent in three counties (areas): Monroe (7.09 percent), St. Johns (6.82 percent) and the small counties of D istrict 2 (6.13 percent). In contrast, five areas experienced average annual appreciation rates of less than 3.25 percent: the small counties in District 7 (2.65 percent), Citrus (3.13 percent), St. L ucie (3.16 percent), Hernando (3.18 percent), and Martin (3.19 percent). R elative to other large urban counties, P inellas, Dade, and Hillsborough experienced rapid increases in house prices of 5.97, 5.49, and 5.33 percent per year, respectively. Table 5-11 reports the estimates of annual house price appreciation for the state and county areas from 1996 through 2000.5.6 Forecasts of Stateand MSA-Level House Price ChangesChanges in population, real income, mortgage interest rates, housing starts, and price changes in previous periods are shown in this section to affect MSA house price levels. The effects of these selected explanatory variables on inflation-adjusted house price appreciation are displayed in Table 5-12. N ote the inflation-adjusted price appreciation is calculated as:inflation-adjusted appreciation = [(1+apprecation rate) / (1+inflation rate)]-1 .The effects of the explanatory v ariables on inflation-adjusted house price appreciation is estimated using a fixed-effects" regression model that incorporates the time-series, crosssectional, nature of the data such that inflation-adjusted house price appreciation = a + S b X + e where X denotes a vector of independent economic and demographic variables, b is the estimated regression coefficient, a is an estimated vector of coefficients corresponding to each MSA, and e is the estimation error of the regression model. The reported figures are the estimated r egression coefficients.17 T -statistics, which measure the statistical significance of the explanatory variables, are reported in parentheses. The first column of Table 5-12 contains results for the 1981 to 2000 time period using only the six largest F lorida MSAs: Ft. Lauderdale, J acksonville, Miami, Orlando, Tampa-St. P etersburg, and West Palm Beach. This sample contains 118 observations. The 17The fixed-effects estimation procedure is equivalent to using ordinary least squares with (indicator) variables to capture the effects of being located in a particular MSA. The model dummy assumes, effectively, that the effect of the explanatory variables on house price appreciation is the same in all MSAs. Unexplained variation in appreciation, presumably due to omitted explanatory variables, is not assumed to be constant across MSAs, and is captured in intercept terms that vary across the MSAs. These MSA intercept terms are not reported here, but are available upon request.

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The State of Florida'sH ousing, 200252estimated regression coefficient on the change in population is 0.826. This means that a 1-percent increase in the population aged 20-54 (prime homebuying years) in the urban areas is associated with a 0.826 percent increase in the inflation-adjusted price of singlefamily housing. The estimated coefficient on changes in real per capita income of 0.338 also indicates a positive r elationship to percentage changes in real house prices. As expected, the level of the nominal mortgage rate is negatively associated with price changes. The coefficient can be interpreted as an increase of 1 percent in the rate results in a reduction of the inflation-adjusted house price of 0.6 percent. The estimated coefficient on housing starts is negative, suggesting that substantial new housing supply slows house price appreciation. F inally, changes in house prices in the previous year are highly correlated with current changes. In all cases the 18O bservations were not available for all years for all MSAs (see Table 5-7). N ote: 2001 values are preliminary. District 1 (Bay, Escambia, Holmes, Okaloosa, Santa Rosa, Walton, and Washington Cos.), District 2 (Calhoun, Franklin, Gadsden, Gulf, Jackson, Jefferson, Leon, Liberty, and Wakulla Cos.), District 3 (Alachua, Bradford, Columbia, Dixie, Gilchrist, Hamilton, Lafayette, M adison, Suwannee, Taylor, and Union Cos.), District 4 (Baker, Clay, [adeq. data not avail. for Duval], N assau, Putnam, and St. Johns Cos.), District 5 (Citus, Levy, Marion, and Sumter Cos.), District 6 (Brevard, Flagler, Lake, Orange, Osceola, Seminole, and Volusia Cos.), District 7 (De Soto, Hardee, H ighlands, Okeechobee, and Polk Cos.), District 8 (Hernando, Hillsborough, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas, and Sarasota Cos.), District 9 (Charlotte, Collier, Glades, Hendry, and Lee Cos.), District 10 (Indian River, Martin, Palm Beach, and St. Lucie Cos.), and District 11 (Broward, Dade, and Monroe Cos.)Ta b le 5-3. Annual House Price Indices for Florida Districts (1980-2000)AllAllNonDist.Dist.Dist.Dist.Dist.Dist.Dist.Dist.Dist.Dist.Dist. FL MSA MSA 1234567891011 19801.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.000 19811.0721.0741.0471.0691.0740.9931.1411.0611.0661.0731.1001.0771.0841.066 19821.0981.0991.0841.1241.0921.0201.1921.1201.0871.0771.1291.0681.0971.091 19831.1291.1301.1071.1501.1271.0961.2301.0911.1381.1051.1761.0601.1261.101 19841.1601.1591.1661.1981.1491.1451.2981.1511.1871.1321.2191.0711.1381.107 19851.1831.1831.1761.2301.1461.0931.3431.1491.2191.1381.2461.0711.1501.114 19861.2051.2051.2061.2301.1491.1751.3611.1461.2421.1611.2891.1121.1801.153 19871.2451.2441.2701.2451.1551.2511.3991.2031.2691.1651.3221.1451.2051.205 19881.2821.2811.3121.2421.2021.1881.4561.1961.2971.1971.3421.1901.2801.258 19891.3211.3181.3651.2521.2241.2551.4881.2311.3381.2341.3691.2771.3261.307 19901.3431.3411.3911.2431.2591.2571.4791.2421.3591.2321.3791.3281.3531.339 19911.3341.3311.3871.2581.2981.2671.4831.2181.3491.2371.3591.3281.3351.341 19921.3341.3301.4161.2931.3261.2861.4971.2151.3471.2481.3681.3231.3181.348 19931.3631.3591.4511.3451.3311.3371.5491.2441.3711.2851.3981.3181.3341.405 19941.4171.4121.5101.4131.4071.3831.5881.2791.3981.3161.4491.3351.3691.481 19951.4511.4461.5641.4751.4721.4581.6491.3121.4361.3561.4871.3521.3991.527 19961.5031.4981.6151.5641.5541.5071.7201.3371.4671.3901.5311.3771.4331.580 19971.5411.5331.6821.6311.5841.5751.7931.3811.5081.4311.5781.4171.4751.619 19981.6131.6051.7711.7041.6561.6531.8691.4201.5791.4991.6731.4751.5481.694 19991.7011.6931.8541.7901.7131.7492.0231.4981.6631.5711.7781.5671.6391.790 20001.8231.8151.9771.8571.8071.8392.1651.5681.7781.6341.9191.6781.7491.944 20011.9301.9242.050n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.

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53coefficient signs are found to be consistent with expectations and statistically significant. The second column of Table 5-12 contains the results for the 1981 to 2000 period using data for all 20 MSAs. This sample contains 380 observations.18R elative to the regression using just the six largest MSAs, the effects of the economic variables retain their estimated signs and, generally, their magnitudes. It is noted that house price movements are more sensitive to percentage changes in population and housing starts in larger urban areas. T his appears to be r easonable because large percentage changes in population and starts are not easily achieved in the more populous urban areas. T aken together, the results of Table 512 are very encouraging. Increases in the number of individuals in their prime buying years and increases in inflationadjusted per capita income have a significantly consistent positive effect on inflation-adjusted house prices. Increases in the level of mortgage interest rates and housing starts has a consistent negative effect on appreciation. In addition, house price changes are serially correlated. These regression results are consistent with findings in the housing r esearch literature. The relative strength and stability of the estimated coefficients, along with the explanatory power of the model, suggest that it can be used to project reasonable estimates of future house prices. The historical regression analyses are used to forecast the average annual rates of price appreciation for each MSA over the 2001 to 2010 period. For comparison, the forecasts are reported along with the average annual appreciation rates for the previous 10year periods in Table 5-13. The N ote: 2001 values are preliminary.Ta b le 5-4. Annual House Price Appreciation (%) for Florida Districts (1981-2000)AllAllNonDist.Dist.Dist.Dist.Dist.Dist.Dist.Dist.Dist.Dist.Dist. FL MSA MSA 1234567891011 19817.257.384.706.937.41-0.6714.086.146.607.269.967.698.456.56 19822.422.373.545.161.632.644.475.561.940.372.68-0.861.152.39 19832.782.812.092.273.287.473.17-2.614.712.664.18-0.692.690.87 19842.712.585.364.181.944.495.605.454.282.433.661.040.980.54 19851.992.050.852.68-0.28-4.493.40-0.172.770.522.20-0.031.060.70 19861.891.862.570.020.267.431.34-0.201.862.003.473.862.653.44 19873.293.195.281.190.516.532.844.932.170.362.502.932.134.51 19883.023.013.33-0.234.10-5.074.09-0.592.172.751.573.996.164.40 19892.972.924.010.761.785.612.192.903.183.091.977.263.603.93 19901.741.731.92-0.652.880.14-0.620.961.58-0.130.734.042.112.47 1991-0.69-0.72-0.261.173.120.820.26-1.96-0.740.40-1.410.00-1.350.10 19920.00-0.112.032.762.131.480.96-0.28-0.170.850.64-0.43-1.290.56 19932.192.172.534.020.384.023.462.441.782.962.23-0.371.224.23 19943.923.914.025.125.733.422.512.761.982.403.621.302.615.41 19952.452.393.594.344.595.393.832.602.733.052.591.272.193.11 19963.583.593.276.075.603.394.341.942.122.522.991.872.443.48 19972.472.384.154.261.954.554.213.292.842.983.082.892.962.44 19984.694.665.304.484.514.904.252.834.684.735.984.074.914.63 19995.445.484.675.053.435.838.225.475.334.846.336.295.905.67 20007.187.216.663.715.515.127.044.686.934.007.917.086.708.63 20015.896.013.67n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.

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The State of Florida'sH ousing, 200254economic data required for the forecasts comes from the F lorida Long-Term E conomic Forecast, 2000 by the Bureau of Business and Economic Research (BEBR) at the University of Florida. The Bu r eau's estimates of expected population, real per capita income, and housing starts are employed in our appreciation forecasts. Mortgage rates are assumed to average their 1991-2000 average level of 7.68 percent for the 10year period. To report nominal appreciation, annual inflation during the 2001 to 2010 period is assumed to be 2.90 percent (the average annual 19912000 rate). It is important to note that forecasting r equires the assumption that the historical relations between inflationadjusted price appreciation and the explanatory variables such as population, inflation-adjusted per capita income, housing starts, mortgage rates, and past appreciation continue into the future. Certainly, this may be only a rough approximation of the effect these v ariables will actually have going forward. In addition, the appreciation estimates are based on the BEBR's underlying forecast of the respective economic v ariables, as well as the assumption that average interest rates and general inflation will be consistent with the past 10-year period. Av erage house price appreciation rates for the state of Florida, reported in Table 5-13, are estimated to be 3.28 percent per year. Note that the projected real (adjusted for inflation) return statewide is 0.38 percent per year. In general, the highest appreciation rates are forecast for the northern portion of the state (e.g., P anama City, 4.54% per year; Ft. Walton B each, 4.02% per year; and Jacksonville, 4.13% per year). Other MSAs that are forecast to experience substantially higher than the state average rates are Miami (4.45% per year) and Gainesville (3.68% per year). With the exception of Miami, lower than average house price increases are forecast in the southern portion of the state, (e.g., Punta Gorda, Ft. Lauderdale, and Ft. Pierce). The relative appreciation rankings among the six Ta ble 5-5. Correlation of Annual Appreciation Rates Between Districts (1981-2000) AllAllNonDist.Dist.Dist.Dist.Dist.Dist.Dist.Dist.Dist.Dist.Dist. FL MSA MSA 1234567891011Florida1 All MSAs11 Non-MSA0.750.741 Dist.-10.460.460.41 Dist.-20.580.580.220.21 Dist.-30.10.090.40.14-0.151 Dist.-40.82:0.829:0.560.630.51-0.081 Dist.-50.580.569:0.790.60.050.250.61 Dist.-60.890.880.70.420.360.210.790.521 Dist.-70.720.720.569:0.560.280.170.760.440.761 Dist.-80.93:0.939:0.690.550.50.180.870.550.910.791 Dist.-90.720.720.569:-0.030.40.050.530.410.620.60.621 Dist.-100.850.850.640.240.32-0.020.710.430.80.810.790.81 Dist.-110.790.80.520.140.790.030.580.330.520.40.660.660.569:1 N ote: 2001 values are preliminary.

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55major MSAs are Miami (4.45% per year); J acksonville (4.13% per year); Orlando (3.49% per year); Tampa-St. Petersburg (3.39% per year); West Palm Beach (2.87% per year); and Ft. Lauderdale (2.58% per year). Communities with a projected house price appreciation below 2.90 percent have a negative projected r eal (inflation-adjusted) return.Figure 1: Florida Annual House Price N otes: Shaded areas denote top quartile ranking. Pensacola MSA (Escambia and Santa Rosa Cos.), Ft. Walton Beach MSA (Okaloosa Co.); Panama City MSA (Bay County), Tallahassee MSA (Leon and G adsden Cos.), Gainesville MSA (Alachua Co.[adeq data not avail all periods]), Jacksonville MSA (Clay, [adeq. data not avail. for Duval], Nassau, and St. Johns Cos.), Ocala MSA (Marion Co.), Daytona Beach MSA (Flagler and Volusia Cos.), Orlando MSA (Lake, Orange, Osceola, and Seminole Cos.), M elbourne-Titusville MSA (Brevard Co.), Lakeland MSA (Polk Co.), Tampa-St.Petersburg MSA (Hernando, Hillsborough, Pasco, and Pinellas Cos.), Sarasota-Bradenton MSA (Manatee and Sarasota Cos.), Punta Gorda MSA (Charlotte Co.), Ft. Myers-Cape Coral MSA (Lee Co.), Naples MSA (Collier Co.), Ft. Pierce-Port St. Lucie MSA (Martin and St. Lucie Cos.), West Palm Beach-Boca Raton MSA (Palm Beach Co.), Ft. Lauderdale MSA (Broward Co.), and Miami MSA (Dade Co.) Ta ble 5-6. Average Annual Percentage Appreciation and Period Rankings By MSA Five-Year Periods (19812000) 1981-851986-901991-951996-00 Metropolitan Statistical Area(rank)(rank)(rank)(rank)Florida (All MSAs)3.442.541.534.66 Pensacola MSA (Dist. 1)4.20 (6)0.09 (18)2.98 (4)5.03 (6) Ft. Walton Beach MSA (Dist. 1)4.67 (3)-0.04 (19)3.89 (2)4.46 (11) Panama City MSA (Dist. 1)3.01 (11)0.92 (17)4.08 (1)4.02 (16) T allahassee MSA (Dist. 2)2.81 (12)2.07 (11)2.71 (5)3.67 (18) Gainesville MSA (Dist. 3)n.a.n.a.n.a.5.05 (5) Jacksonville MSA (Dist. 4)7.38 (1)1.81 (13)2.06 (7)5.70 (2) Ocala MSA (Dist. 5)2.63 (14)1.11 (16)1.69 (10)3.93 (17) Daytona Beach MSA (Dist. 6)3.35 (7)2.88 (8)1.34 (12)4.12 (14) Orlando MSA (Dist. 6)4.66 (4)2.35 (10)1.12 (14)4.80 (8) Melbourne-Titusville MSA (Dist. 6)3.05 (9)1.20 (15)0.89 (16)3.29 (19) Lakeland MSA (Dist. 7)3.15 (8)1.48 (14)1.98 (9)4.22 (13) T ampa-St.Pete. MSA (Dist. 8)4.76 (2)1.90 (12)1.41 (11)5.33 (4) Sarasota-Bradenton MSA (Dist. 8)3.05 (9)2.84 (9)2.17 (6)4.89 (7) Punta Gorda MSA (Dist. 9)0.58 (19)4.83 (2)-0.98 (19)4.47 (10) Ft. Myers MSA (Dist. 9)2.03 (17)4.14 (3)1.08 (15)4.06 (15) Naples MSA (Dist. 9)4.51 (5)5.90 (1)1.26 (13)5.74 (1) Ft. Pierce MSA (Distr. 10)2.30 (15)3.20 (7)-0.31 (18)3.15 (20) W est Palm Beach MSA (Dist. 10)2.69 (13)3.40 (5)0.60 (17)4.74 (9) Ft. Laurderdale MSA (Dist. 11)1.89 (18)3.30 (6)2.02 (8)4.42 (12) Miami MSA (Dist. 11)2.15 (16)3.79 (4)3.66 (3)5.49 (3)

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56 Ta b le 5-8: Annual House Price Appreciation (%) for Florida Metropolitan N ote: 2001 values are preliminary. Ta b le 5-7: Annual House Price Indices for Florida Metropolitan Statistical Areas MSAMSAMSAMSAMSAMSAMSAMSA AllAllNon12345678 FLMSAMSAPensFt.WPanaTallGainJackOcalDayt 19801.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.000n.a.1.0001.0001.00019811.0721.0741.0471.0781.0631.0301.073n.a.1.1821.0381.07619821.0981.0991.0841.1241.1301.0521.113n.a.1.2501.1191.06719831.1291.1301.1071.1251.2041.1041.139n.a.1.2701.0561.10919841.1601.1591.1661.1691.2221.1941.147n.a.1.3541.1231.15119851.1831.1831.1761.2271.2551.1561.147n.a.1.4181.1331.17719861.2051.2051.2061.2161.2301.2141.142n.a.1.4121.1041.22019871.2451.2441.2701.2231.2761.2181.149n.a.1.4651.1761.26119881.2821.2811.3121.2091.2831.2251.201n.a.1.5151.1651.29319891.3211.3181.3651.2301.2831.2141.226n.a.1.5531.1871.33219901.3431.3411.3911.2321.2501.2081.269n.a.1.5501.1941.35619911.3341.3311.3871.2101.3051.2571.287n.a.1.5361.1901.36019921.3341.3301.4161.2461.3371.2881.323n.a.1.5541.1851.36119931.3631.3591.4511.2921.4021.3441.328n.a.1.6091.2271.39219941.4171.4121.5101.3591.4911.3931.385n.a.1.6511.2621.40119951.4501.4461.5641.4241.5121.4751.449n.a.1.7151.2981.44919961.5031.4981.6151.5091.6311.5411.5341.5031.7851.3381.46419971.5411.5331.6821.5741.7001.6011.5521.5561.8661.3881.51119981.6131.6051.7711.6631.7331.6841.6041.6291.9431.4201.56919991.7011.6931.8541.7511.7791.8081.6561.7162.1221.5071.64920001.8231.8151.9771.8211.8791.7941.7351.8312.2611.5731.77120011.9301.9242.050n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.MSAMSAMSAMSAMSAMSAMSAMSA All All Non 12345678 FLMSAMSA PensFt.WPanaTallGainJackOcalDayt19817.257.384.707.826.273.017.26n.a.18.203.757.65 19822.422.373.544.226.292.113.77n.a.5.787.83-0.87 19832.782.812.090.086.604.992.37n.a.1.61-5.563.96 19842.712.585.363.911.528.130.66n.a.6.556.253.72 19851.992.050.854.962.65-3.22-0.03n.a.4.770.912.30 19861.891.862.57-0.88-1.955.07-0.42n.a.-0.42-2.563.67 19873.293.195.280.593.690.300.61n.a.3.766.563.32 19883.023.013.33-1.170.570.614.57n.a.3.36-0.932.52 19892.972.924.011.73-0.02-0.972.02n.a.2.531.893.09 19901.741.731.920.17-2.51-0.433.54n.a.-0.180.581.80 1991-0.69-0.72-0.26-1.784.334.021.42n.a.-0.89-0.300.26 19920.0-0.112.032.982.492.502.78n.a.1.15-0.440.12 19932.192.172.533.684.894.310.36n.a.3.553.562.27 19943.923.914.025.216.303.624.28n.a.2.572.780.64 19952.452.393.594.811.445.944.69n.a.3.912.863.41 19963.583.593.275.937.834.475.80n.a.4.103.111.06 19972.472.384.154.324.233.911.223.494.503.743.15 19984.694.665.305.671.975.133.314.714.162.283.85 19995.445.484.675.292.687.393.255.369.206.145.11 20007.187.216.663.975.57-0.804.796.656.564.397.41 20015.896.013.67n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.

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57 Statistical Areas (MSAs) (1981-2000) (MSAs) (1980-2000)MSAMSAMSAMSAMSAMSAMSAMSAMSAMSAMSAMSA 9101 1121314151617181920 OrlaMelbLakeTampSaraPuntFt.MNaplFt.PWPBFt.LMiam1.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.0001.000 1.0691.0451.0761.1061.0671.0451.1021.2171.1081.0811.0321.098 1.1001.0711.0841.1361.0861.0561.0801.1691.1311.0931.0791.101 1.1631.0971.1291.1871.1071.0211.0811.2591.1681.1141.0881.107 1.2191.1281.1431.2321.1421.0211.1011.1991.0911.1281.0941.110 1.2551.1621.1661.2591.1611.0281.1011.2221.1121.1401.0981.109 1.2691.1831.1871.3051.1881.0631.1431.2911.1431.1711.1391.141 1.3011.1861.1931.3381.2161.1061.1731.3541.1801.1951.1881.186 1.3351.2001.2261.3581.2501.1321.2241.3821.2441.2711.2301.244 1.3781.2361.2621.3791.3001.2401.3001.5331.2831.3071.2681.297 1.4091.2331.2541.3831.3351.2991.3481.6241.3021.3461.2911.335 1.4041.2021.2661.3581.3441.2661.3661.5961.2931.3151.2821.354 1.3871.2301.2681.3671.3511.2281.3751.6151.2551.3001.2951.346 1.4191.2331.3061.3941.3981.2401.3741.6251.2451.3201.3451.417 1.4491.2631.3411.4461.4411.2541.3821.6961.2681.3571.3811.548 1.4891.2881.3831.4821.4861.2361.4221.7271.2811.3861.4261.594 1.5281.3081.4271.5251.5311.2801.4341.7641.2871.4191.4601.670 1.5731.3391.4681.5711.5871.2951.4881.8281.3351.4611.4841.721 1.6571.3791.541.6661.6771.3491.5361.9481.3671.5351.5461.808 1.7501.4421.6311.7761.7621.4311.6242.0931.4191.6341.6271.923 1.8811.5141.7011.9201.8861.5361.7332.2801.4951.7461.7672.081 n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.MSAMSAMSAMSAMSAMSAMSAMSAMSAMSAMSAMSA 910111 21314151617181920 OrlaMelbLakeTampSaraPuntFt.MNaplFt.PWPBFt.LMiam6.864.497.6310.566.724.4810.1921.6710.848.113.259.75 2.912.510.672.781.750.04-1.99-3.952.011.074.510.33 5.792.424.234.431.98-3.310.067.753.281.960.800.51 4.82.801.193.853.110.061.90-4.80-6.581.260.590.26 2.923.052.022.201.670.610.001.911.971.030.32-0.09 1.171.761.773.602.373.463.805.652.792.713.742.89 2.520.290.502.542.344.062.624.913.172.054.303.97 2.61.162.801.512.772.354.372.115.446.383.594.90 3.193.022.971.533.979.526.2310.883.102.893.054.22 2.25-0.24-0.640.312.754.763.685.931.482.961.792.97 -0.32-2.540.92-1.820.65-2.521.32-1.70-0.66-2.31-0.671.38 -1.222.360.170.670.50-3.020.701.17-2.90-1.170.99-0.56 2.270.203.001.943.490.98-0.120.61-0.861.563.875.29 2.132.462.653.763.090.090.604.391.902.842.719.23 2.751.973.192.493.14-1.412.891.850.992.083.212.97 2.61.573.182.933.003.540.812.100.472.432.444.78 2.962.372.882.983.661.213.773.643.732.961.593.06 5.363.014.856.065.654.163.236.582.395.064.205.03 5.624.545.936.595.116.035.757.453.836.435.216.37 7.484.984.278.107.047.396.748.945.346.838.668.21 n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.

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The State of Florida'sH ousing, 200258 Table 5-9. Correlation of Annual Appreciation Rates Between MSAs (1981-2000)MSAMSAMSAMSAMSAMSAMSA All All Non 1234567 FLMSAMSAPensFt.WPanaTallGainJackOcal Flor1MSA11Non0.780.771Pens0.570.570.461Ft.W0.310.320.130.461Pana0.00.00.150.190.121T all0.570.570.320.450.360.011Gainn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.1Jack0.760.760.530.710.370.10.51n.a.1Ocal0.390.380.610.560.250.080.14n.a.0.521Dayt0.780.780.60.27-0.010.060.22n.a.0.630.09Orla0.870.870.670.450.270.090.37n.a.0.680.27Melb0.740.740.640.660.170.030.35n.a.0.650.27Lake0.790.790.430.550.360.270.49n.a.0.710.06T amp0.920.920.70.620.330.190.46n.a.0.80.28Sara0.910.910.760.550.130.060.48n.a.0.680.37Punt0.620.620.570.16-0.23-0.330.21n.a.0.310.35Ft.M.0.650.650.490.15-0.23-0.090.4n.a.0.560.09Napl0.680.680.320.240.04-0.190.44n.a.0.54-0.13Ft.P.0.650.660.270.140.16-0.330.48n.a.0.52-0.04W.P.0.890.890.660.350.01-0.040.55n.a.0.650.19Ft.L0.70.70.710.230.09-0.110.33n.a.0.330.43Miam0.790.790.550.40.250.00.56n.a.0.510.27

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59 MSAMSAMSAMSAMSAMSAMSAMSAMSAMSAMSAMSAMSA 8910 11121314151617181920 DaytOrlaMelbLakeTampSaraPuntFt.MNaplFt.PW.P.Ft.LMiam1 0.811 0.610.711 0.730.740.641 0.810.850.810.821 0.820.820.660.780.841 0.480.450.390.320.410.681 0.80.520.440.590.590.750.661 0.720.540.480.690.670.670.550.81 0.57:0.50.380.640.580.570.480.660.81 0.760.750.630.740.790.870.660.770.70.751 0.490.50.480.380.57:0.680.650.420.320.460.671 0.530.470.350.650.620.780.590.630.650.620.760.611

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60 Ta ble 5-10: Average Annual Percentage Appreciation and Period Rankings By County Five-Year Periods (19962000) 1996-20001996-2000 County(rank)County(rank)FloridaOsceola Co. (All Counties) 4.67 (Dist. 6, Orlando MSA) 3.79 FloridaSeminole Co. (All MSAs) 4.66 (Dist. 6, Orlando MSA) 4.93 FloridaBrevard Co. (All non-MSA Counties) 4.81 (Dist. 6, Melbourne MSA) 3.29 Escambia Co.Polk Co. (Dist. 1, Pensacola MSA) 5.05 (Dist. 7, Lakeland MSA) 4.22 Santa Rosa Co.District 7 Small Counties (Dist. 1, Pensacola MSA) 5.06 (Dist. 7) 2.69 Okaloosa Co.Hernando Co. (Dist. 1, Ft. Walton Beach MSA) 4.46 (Dist. 8, Tampa-St.P. MSA) 3.18 Bay Co.Hillsborough Co. (Dist. 1, Panama City MSA) 4.02 (Dist. 8, Tampa-St.Pete. MSA) 5.33 District 1 Small CountiesPasco Co. (Dist. 1) 6.13 (Dist. 8, Tampa-St.Pete. MSA) 4.01 Leon Co.Pinellas Co. (Dist. 2, Tallahassee MSA) 3.58 (Dist. 8, Tampa-St.Pete. MSA) 5.97 District 2 Small CountiesManatee Co. (Dist. 2) 6.60 (Dist. 8, Sarasota MSA) 4.98 Alachua Co.Sarasota Co. (Dist. 3) 5.05 (Dist. 8, Sarasota MSA) 4.88 District 3 Small CountiesCharlotte Co. (Dist. 3) 4.64 (Dist. 9, Punta Gorda MSA) 4.47 Clay Co.Lee Co. (Dist. 4, Jacksonville MSA) 4.26 (Dist. 9, Ft. Myers MSA) 4.06 (Duval Co.)Collier Co. (Dist. 4, Jacksonville MSA) n.a. (Dist. 9, Naples MSA) 5.74 St. Johns Co.District 9 Small Counties (Dist. 4, Jacksonville MSA) 6.82 (Dist. 9.) 3.88 District 4 Small CountiesIndian River Co. (Dist. 4) 4.90 (Dist. 10) 5.46 Citrus Co.Martin Co. (Dist. 5) 3.13 (Dist. 10, Ft. Pierce MSA) 3.19 Marion Co.St. Lucie Co. (Dist. 5, Ocala MSA) 3.93 (Dist. 10, Ft. Pierce MSA) 3.16 District 5 Small CountiesPalm Beach Co. (Dist. 5) 3.37 (Dist. 10, W. Palm Beach MSA) 4.74 V olusia Co.Broward Co. (Dist. 6, Daytona MSA) 4.19 (Dist. 11, Ft. Lauderdale MSA) 4.42 Lake Co.Dade Co. (Dist. 6, Orlando MSA) 4.82 (Dist. 11, Miami MSA) 5.49 Orange Co.Monroe Co. (Dist. 6, Orlando MSA) 4.93 (Dist. 11) 7.09 N otes: Multi-county estimates may vary from MSA estimates due to small sample estimation error. Shaded areas denote top quartile return. Flagler, and Duval Cos. not estimated due to insufficient data. District 1 small cos. are H olmes, Walton, and Washington. District 2 small cos. are Calhoun, Franklin, Gadsden, Gulf, Jackson, Jefferson, Liberty, and Wakulla. District 3 small cos. are Bradford, Columbia, Dixie, Gilchrist, Hamilton, Lafayette, Madison, S uwannee, Taylor, and Union. District 4 small cos. are Baker and Putnam. District 5 small cos. are Levy and Sumter. D istrict 7 small cos. are De Soto, Hardee, Highlands, Okeechobee. District 9 small cos, are Glades and Hendry.

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61 61 Ta b le 5-11: Annual House Price Appreciation (%) for Selected Counties (1996 2000)Y earFLEscaSantOkalBayD1smLeonD2smAlacD3sm 19963.586.026.27.834.473.015.935.92n.a.2.39 19972.474.353.864.233.916.710.845.743.495.87 19984.695.865.241.975.132.743.3411.144.715.2 19995.445.584.272.687.398.873.174.935.366 20007.183.435.745.57-0.89.344.637.886.653.73 Y earSemiBrevPolkD7smHernHillPascPineManaSara 19961.371.573.180.872.052.312.993.414.652.15 19973.822.372.8831.973.90.593.013.483.85 19985.663.014.854.523.946.444.466.295.175.88 19994.344.545.931.463.926.45.387.345.614.84 20009.444.984.273.63.997.626.629.86.017.65 Y earClayDuvlSt.JD4smCitrMariD5smVoluLakeOranOsce 19962.29n.a.7.746.01-0.073.110.831.362.343.432.95 19973.93n.a.3.952.312.313.742.923.014.872.251.72 19982.38n.a.5.795.783.582.283.183.94.245.623.83 19998.25n.a.8.611.744.276.145.085.294.796.46.15 20004.47n.a.88.685.554.394.827.377.856.934.29 Y earCharLeeCollD9smIndiMartSt.LP.B.BrowMiamMonr 19963.540.812.19.246.11-0.641.42.432.444.785.48 19971.213.773.640.070.914.243.242.961.593.065.06 19984.163.236.581.987.23.031.915.064.25.038.05 19996.035.757.4510.293.265.13.146.435.216.376.24 20007.396.748.93:-2.29.834.236.136.829:8.668.2110.63County Key: FL: Florida (All Counties) Esca: Escambia (Dist.1) S ant: Santa Rosa (Dist. 1) O kal: Okaloosa (Dist. 1) Bay: Bay (Dist. 1) D1sm: District 1 Small Cos. Leon: Leon (Dist. 2) D2sm: District 2 Small Cos. Alac: Alachua (Dist. 3) D3sm: District 3 Small Cos. Clay: Clay (Dist. 4) Du v a: Duval (Dist. 4) S t.J: St. Johns (Dist. 4) Citr: Citrus (Dist. 5) M ari: Marion (Dist. 5) D5sm: District 5 Small Cos. V olu: Volusia (Dist. 6) Lake: Lake (Dist. 6) O ran: Orange (Dist. 6) O sce: Osceola (Dist. 6) S emi: Seminole (Dist. 6) Brev: Brevard (Dist. 6) P olk: Polk (Dist. 7) D7sm: District 7 Small Cos. H ern: Hernando (Dist. 8) H ill: Hillsborough (Dist. 8) P asc: Pasco (Dist. 8) P ine: Pinellas (Dist. 8) M ana: Manatee (Dist. 8) S ara: Sarasota (Dist. 8) Char: Charlotte (Dist. 9) Lee: Lee (Dist. 9) Coll: Collier (Dist. 9) D9sm: District 9 Small Cos. I ndi: Indian River (Dist. 10) Ma r t: Martin (Dist. 10) S t.L: St.Lucie (Dist. 10) P .Bch: Palm Beach (Dist. 10) Brow: Broward (Dist. 11) M iam: Miami (Dist. 11) M onr. Monroe (Dist. 11)

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The State of Florida'sH ousing, 200262 N otes: The six largest MSAs are Ft. Lauderdale, Jacksonville, Miami, Orlando, Tampa, and W est Palm Beach. The figures reported are the estimated model coefficients, b, with their tstatistics in parentheses. Estimated model: House Price Appreciation = a + S bX, where b is the estimated coefficient, X the vector of explanatory variables, and a the vector of dummy variables for each of the respective MSAs. "*" indicates that the coefficient is statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. The house price appreciation equation is estimated using a "fixed-effects" model that incorporates the time-series, cross-sectional, nature of the data. This estimation procedure is equivalent to using ordinary least squares with dummy (indicator) variables to capture the effects of being located in a particular MSA. The model assumes, effectively, that the effect of the explanatory variables on house price appreciation is the same in all MSAs. Unexplained v ariation in appreciation, presumably due to omitted explanatory variables, is not assumed to be constant across the MSAs, and is captured in intercept terms that vary across the MSAs. These MSA intercept terms are not reported here, but are available upon request. Ta ble 5-12: Explaining Past Changes in Real Single-Family House Prices Using Economic and Demographic Variables (1981-2000) Six LargestAll Explanatory VariableMSAsMSAs Pct. Annual Change in Population (A0.8260.46: (3.81)*(3.72)* Pct. Annual Change in Inflation-Adjus0.3380.335 (5.06)*(7.00)* Level of Nominal Mortgage Interest R-0.006-0.006 (-7.15)*(-9.53)* Housing Starts in Previous Year as P-1.322-0.572 (-3.21)*(-2.52)* House Price Appreciation in Previous0.4520.251 (6.97)*(5.58)* No. of Observations118.000380.000 Adjusted Model R-Squared0.56:0.360

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63N otes: Shaded areas denote top quartile ranking. *Data from previous report. Pensacola MSA (Escambia and Santa Rosa Cos.), Ft. Walton Beach MSA (Okaloosa Co.); Panama City MSA (Bay County), Tallahassee MSA (Leon and Gadsden Cos.), Gainesville MSA (Alachua Co.), Jacksonville MSA (Clay Nassau, and St. Johns Cos. [adeq. data not avail. for Duval]), Ocala MSA (Marion Co.), D aytona Beach MSA (Flagler and Volusia Cos.), Orlando MSA (Lake, Orange, Osceola, and Seminole Cos.), Melbourne-Titusville MSA (Brevard Co.), Lakeland MSA (Polk Co.), Tampa-St.Petersburg MSA (Hernando, Hillsborough, Pasco, and Pinellas Cos.), Sarasota-Bradenton MSA (Manatee and Sarasota Cos.), Punta Gorda MSA (Charlotte Co.), Ft. Myers-Cape Coral MSA (Lee Co.), Naples MSA (Collier Co.), Ft. Pierce-Port St. Lucie MSA (Martin and St. Lucie Cos.), West Palm Beach-Boca Raton MSA (Palm Beach Co.), Ft. Lauderdale MSA (Broward Co.), and Miami MSA (Dade Co.). 2001-2010 forecast based on model estimates reported in Table 13 using projected economic and demographic data from the Bureau of Economic and Business Research at the University of Florida. Ta b le 5-13: Average Annual Percentage Appreciation and Period Rankings By MSA T en-Year Periods (197100) with Ten-Year Projection (2001-10) 1971-801981-901991-002001-10 Metropolitan Statistical Area(rank)(rank)(rank)(rank)Florida (All MSAs)9.522.993.13.28 Pensacola MSA (Dist. 1)n.a.2.14 (16)4.01 (4)3.63 (6) Ft. Walton Beach MSA (Dist. 1)n.a.2.31 (15)4.17 (2)4.02 (4) Panama City MSA (Dist. 1)n.a.1.96 (18)4.05 (3)4.52 (1) T allahassee MSA (Dist. 2)n.a.2.44 (13)3.19 (10)3.27 (10) Gainesville MSA (Dist. 3)n.a.n.a.n.a.3.68 (5) Jacksonville MSA (Dist. 4)8.34 (6)*4.60 (2)3.88 (5)4.13 (3) Ocala MSA (Dist. 5)n.a.1.87 (19)2.81 (13)2.88 (14) Daytona Beach MSA (Dist. 6)n.a.3.12 (5)2.73 (14)3.35 (9) Orlando MSA (Dist. 6)9.82 (3)3.50 (3)2.96 (12)3.49 (7) Melbourne-Titusville MSA (Dist. 6)n.a.2.13 (17)2.09 (17)3.22 (12) Lakeland MSA (Dist. 7)n.a.2.32 (14)3.10 (11)2.99 (13) T ampa-St.Pete. MSA (Dist. 8)8.76 (5)3.33 (4)3.37 (8)3.39 (8) Sarasota-Bradenton MSA (Dist. 8)n.a.2.94 (9)3.53 (6)3.23 (11) Punta Gorda MSA (Dist. 9)n.a.2.70 (11)1.75 (18)2.02 (20) Ft. Myers MSA (Dist. 9)n.a.3.09 (6)2.57 (16)2.83 (16) Naples MSA (Dist. 9)n.a.5.20 (1)3.50 (7)2.77 (17) Ft. Pierce MSA (Distr. 10)n.a.2.75 (10)1.42 (19)2.72 (18) W est Palm Beach MSA (Dist. 10)10.18 (1)3.04 (7)2.67 (15)2.87 (15) Ft. Lauderdale MSA (Dist. 11)9.89 (2)2.59 (12)3.22 (9)2.58 (19) Miami MSA (Dist. 11)9.73 (4)2.97 (8)4.57 (1)4.45 (2)

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The State of Florida'sH ousing, 200264 Ta ble 5-14: District, MSA and Counties Listed by District Location (Northwest Florida to Southeast Florida)DistrictMSACountyDistrict 1: West FloridaPanama CityBay District 1: West FloridaPensacolaEscambia District 1: West FloridaPensacolaSanta Rosa District 1: West FloridaFt. Walton BeachOkaloosa District 1: West FloridaNon-MSA countyHolmes District 1: West FloridaNon-MSA countyWalton District 1: West FloridaNon-MSA countyWashington District 2: ApalacheeTallahasseeGadsden District 2: ApalacheeTallahasseeLeon District 2: ApalacheeNon-MSA countyCalhoun District 2: ApalacheeNon-MSA countyFranklin District 2: ApalacheeNon-MSA countyGulf District 2: ApalacheeNon-MSA countyJackson District 2: ApalacheeNon-MSA countyJefferson District 2: ApalacheeNon-MSA countyLiberty District 2: ApalacheeNon-MSA countyWakulla District 3: N. Central FloridaGainesvilleAlachua District 3: N. Central FloridaNon-MSA countyBradford District 3: N. Central FloridaNon-MSA countyColumbia District 3: N. Central FloridaNon-MSA countyDixie District 3: N. Central FloridaNon-MSA countyGilchrist District 3: N. Central FloridaNon-MSA countyHamilton District 3: N. Central FloridaNon-MSA countyLafayette District 3: N. Central FloridaNon-MSA countyMadison District 3: N. Central FloridaNon-MSA countySuwannee District 3: N. Central FloridaNon-MSA countyTaylor District 3: N. Central FloridaNon-MSA countyUnion District 4: Northeast FloridaJacksonvilleClay District 4: Northeast FloridaJacksonvilleDuval District 4: Northeast FloridaJacksonvilleNassau District 4: Northeast FloridaJacksonvilleSt. Johns District 4: Northeast FloridaNon-MSA countyBaker District 4: Northeast FloridaNon-MSA countyPutnam District 5: WithlacoocheeOcalaMarion District 5: WithlacoocheeNon-MSA countyCitrus District 5: WithlacoocheeNon-MSA countyLevy District 5: WithlacoocheeNon-MSA countySumter District 6: E. Central FloridaMelbourneBrevard District 6: E. Central FloridaDaytona BeachFlagler District 6: E. Central FloridaDaytona BeachVolusia District 6: E. Central FloridaOrlandoLake District 6: E. Central FloridaOrlandoOrange District 6: E. Central FloridaOrlandoOsceola District 6: E. Central FloridaOrlandoSeminole District 7: Central FloridaLakelandPolk District 7: Central FloridaNon-MSA countyDe Soto District 7: Central FloridaNon-MSA countyHardee District 7: Central FloridaNon-MSA countyHighlands District 7: Central FloridaNon-MSA countyOkeechobee District 8: Tampa BayTampa … St. PetersburgHernando District 8: Tampa BayTampa … St. PetersburgHillsborough District 8: Tampa BayTampa … St. PetersburgPasco District 8: Tampa BayTampa … St. PetersburgPinellas District 8: Tampa BaySarasota … BradentonManatee District 8: Tampa BaySarasota … BradentonSarasota District 9: Southwest FloridaPunta GordaCharlotte District 9: Southwest FloridaNaplesCollier District 9: Southwest FloridaFt. MyersLee District 9: Southwest FloridaNon-MSA countyGlades District 9: Southwest FloridaNon-MSA countyHendry District 10: Treasure CoastFt. Pierce … Port St. LucieMartin District 10: Treasure CoastFt. Pierce … Port St. LucieSt. Lucie District 10: Treasure CoastWest Palm BeachPalm Beach District 10: Treasure CoastNon-MSA countyIndian River District 11: South FloridaFt. LauderdaleBroward District 11: South FloridaMiamiDade District 11: South FloridaNon-MSA countyMonroe

PAGE 67

656. ConclusionF lorida's 67 counties include 34 urban counties and the 33 rural counties. The urban counties can also be divided into those that are a part of the six major metropolitan areas and fourteen other metropolitan areas. Dividing the counties in this way is useful as a means to understand Florida's housing. There are also a number of differences in housing characteristics between coastal and non-coastal counties. These housing differences reflect the differences in the characteristics of the population in different areas of the state. The population of the state is growing, but not uniformly. Different areas of the state are also characterized by differences in the distribution of households by age, income, race, ethnicity, and county of origin. Si ngle-family housing units dominate the state, but condominiums are an important source of housing in some coastal counties and mobile homes play a key role in rural counties in the interior of the state. Relative to other areas of the country, housing prices in Florida are low. Appreciation rates for single family housing differ across the state but have increased in recent years in most areas. I ndices of affordability show that on average the affordability of housing has improved in the state in recent years. Ho we ver, an affordability index masks the problems that households with incomes below the median income have in obtaining suitable housing without paying more than 30 percent of income toward housing costs. It is difficult to derive a single number of housing need, and the 30 percent of income standard may not be an appropriate criteria to define affordability. However, even it 40 percent or 50 percent are used as the standard, it is clear that there is a substantial need in Florida. The affordability calculations also indicate that the most severe needs are for households with incomes below 30 percent of median income. This is a group that is difficult to reach with state programs, but one that becomes even more vulnerable with changes in the federal public housing program. While housing affordability is a problem in Florida, substandard housing is less pervasive. In part, this is a reflection of a relatively young housing stock in F lorida that has been built in response to the recent rapid growth of the state. There are, however, areas of older housing stock in the state that are in need of rehabilitation and the aging of the existing housing stock will lead to additional needs for rehabilitation in the coming years.

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S himberg Center for Affordable Housing U niversity of Florida P ost Office Box 115703 G ainesville, Florida 32611-5703 1-800-259-5705


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Place of Publication: Gainesville, Fla.
Publication Date: 2002
Copyright Date: 2010
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The State of Florida's



Housing, 2002




Janet Galvez, Shimberg Center,
University of Florida
Dean Gatzlaff, Real Estate Center,
Florida State University
Jim Martinez, Florida Housing Data
Clearinghouse, Shimberg Center,
University of Florida
Margaret Murray, Department of
Urban and Regional Planning,
Florida Atlantic University
Diep Nguyen, Florida Housing Da
Clearinghouse, Shimberg Ce
University of Florida
William O'Dll
Clearing
Unive
Cl n cha. nisLo


for this report provided by the State of Florid





























































This publication, as well as an Appendix containing

estimates of housing supply and the affordability index for

each of Florida s sixty-seven counties, are available on the

Internet at www.flhousingdata.shimberg. ufi.edu.

The Appendix also may be purchased from the Shimberg

Center for $15. 00 to cover reproduction and mailing costs.







The State of Florida's

Housing, 2002


Contents

1.0 Introduction ...... ......... ..... .. ....... ............... 3

2.0 Estimating the Impact of Florida's Changing Population ......... 3
on Housing Needs in the State

2.1 Florida's Population Profile ....................................................... 3

2.2 Population Change in Selected Counties ...................................... 5

2.3 M igration and M obility .......................... ................................. 5
2.4 H household Size and Incom e ................................... ................ .... 7

2.5 Owners and Renters ........................................ ................. 10

2.6 Sum m ary .................. .............. ....... ............... .. ......... ... 11

3.0 Florida's Housing Supply ..................... ........................... 13

3.1 D ata D description ............................................. ................. 13

3.2 Single-fam ily H housing ........................................ ................. .... 14
3.3 C ondom inium s ........................................ ....... ................. 17

3.4 Multifamily Housing ........................................ .................. 34

3.5 Impact of Housing on the Florida Economy ............................. 36

3.6 Sum m ary .................................. ....... .. ............. .... .............. 36

4.0 Housing Prices and Affordability ........................................... 37
4 .1 In trod u action ............................. ................. ............... ...... 3 7

4.2 H housing Affordability Index ............................... ....... ...... ..... 37

4.3 C ost B urden ............................. ................. ..................... 45

5.0 Florida House Price Trends: Market Comparisons and Forecasts........ 46
5 .1 In trod u action ........................... .... ............... ............... ....... 4 6

5.2 Statewide Measures of Single-Family House Prices in Florida ....... 47

5.3 District-Level Measures of Single-Family House Price ................ 48
Appreciation in Florida

5.4 MSA-Level Measures of Single-Family House Price .................. 49
Appreciation in Florida

5.5 County-Level Measures of House Price Appreciation in Florida.... 51

5.6 Forecasts of State- and MSA-Level House Price Changes ........... 51
6.0 C conclusion ............................... ................. ........ ...... ................. 65







Tables


2.1 Florida's Population by Age ...... ............ ......................... ................... 4
2.2 Change in Population 1990-2000 and Density Per Square Mile ................... 6
2.3 Mobility Rates and Origins of Movers Since 1995 (Census 2000) .............. 6
2.4 Foreign N ationality .................. ............................ ..................... 8
2.5 Average Household Size and Change in Persons Per Household 1990-2000 8
2.6 Average Household Size by Race/Ethnicity and Tenure, 2000 ..................... 9
2.7 Median Household Income 1989 and 1999 .............................................. 9
2.8 Median Value Owner Occupied Unit* 1989 and 1999 ........................... 11
2.9 Owner-Occupied Units by Race/Ethnicity and Age .................................. 12
2.10 Renter-Occupied Units by Race/Ethnicity and Age .............................. 12
3.1 Single-Family Housing Stock ........................................ ................ 18-21
3.2 Condom inium H housing Stock............................................................ 22-25
3.3 Multi-Family Housing Stock with Two to Nine Units in Complex ........ 26-29
3.4 Multi-Family Housing Stock with Ten or More Units in Complex ........ 30-33
4.1 A affordability Index ........................................ ............................ 40-43
4.2 Affordability Index Ranking 1999 ................................. .... ............. 44
4.3 C ost B urden ................................... ............................ .. .......... ....... 45
5.1 Summary of Florida House Price Appreciation, ........................................ 47
5.2 Average Annual Percentage Appreciation and Period Rankings by District.. 50
5.3 Annual House Price Indices for Florida Districts ...................................... 52
5.4 Annual House Price Appreciation (%) for Florida Districts .................... 53
5.5 Correlation of Annual Appreciation Rates Between Districts .................. 54
5.6 Average Annual Percentage Appreciation and Period Rankings By MSA ..... 55
5.7 Annual House Price Indices for Florida Metropolitan Statistical Areas ... 56-57
5.8 Annual House Price Appreciation (%) for Florida Metropolitan ............ 56-57
Statistical Areas
5.9 Correlation of Annual Appreciation Rates Between MSAs ................. 58-59
5.10 Average Annual Percentage Appreciation and Period Rankings ............... 60
By County
5.11 Annual House Price Appreciation (%) for Selected Counties .................. 61
5.12 Explaining Past Changes in Real Single-Family House Prices ................ 62
5.13 Average Annual Percentage Appreciation and Period Rankings By MSA ... 63
5.14 District, MSA and Counties Listed by District Location........................... 64


Figures

Figure 1 Region of Birth of Foreigh-born Population .......................................... 4
Figure 2 Selected Florida Counties ......................................... ..................... 5
Figure 3 Florida Annual House Price Index and Appreciation........................... 46
Figure 4 Florida Annual House Price Appreciation ....................................... 48
Figure 5 Average Annual House Price Appreciation ....................................... 49


III







1. Introduction


This study is a compendium of facts
on Florida's housing. The data highlight
the tremendous diversity in housing
characteristics across the state,
particularly between the 34 urban
counties and the 33 rural counties, as well
as between coastal and non-coastal
counties. The characteristics of Florida's
housing reflect the characteristics of the
state's population. The population of the
state is growing, creating a demand for
additional housing, yet that growth is not
distributed uniformly across the state.
Growth is most often a coastal
phenomenon. Further, the nature of the
growth differs across the state as
characterized by age, income, race,
ethnicity, and county of origin.
Florida is a state in which single-family
housing units dominate, but
condominiums are an important source
of housing in some coastal counties and
manufactured housing (mobile homes)
play a key role in rural counties in the
interior of the state. A majority of
households are homeowners, but rental
housing is needed to meet the needs of
young and lower income households The
data show that, relative to other areas of
the country, housing prices in Florida are
low. However, this is far from universal.
Affordability indices indicate that
housing in the state is affordable, but the
indices mask affordability problems for
those in lower income categories.
Florida's advantage in house prices often
tends to be offset by correspondingly low
income levels, resulting in housing
affordability problems for a substantial
portion of the population of the state.
Affordability problems are particularly
prevalent for renter households. Finally,
it is a state in which much housing has
been built in recent years but the aging
of portions of the stock require attention
to the need for rehabilitation.
This document first discusses specific
demographic patterns in the state and


their impact on the need for housing.
Second, it details characteristics of the
housing stock in the state. Third, it
discusses the movement in house prices
and the rate of appreciation in housing.
Finally, it discusses issues in the
affordability of housing in the state. The
expectation is that the information
included in this study will help readers
to understand the diversity, the needs, the
public policy concerns, and the
opportunities of Florida's many housing
markets.




2. Estimating the

Impact of Florida's

Changing Population

on Housing Needs in

the State
by Margaret S. Murray, Ph.D., Department
of Urban & Regional Planning, Florida
Atlantic Unversity


2.1 Florida's Population Profile

Over the past decade the state of
Florida has seen its population grow from
just under thirteen million to almost
sixteen million people. Long seen as a
haven for retirees, during the past decade
the median age of the population rose to
38.7 years from 36.3 years in 1990. Table
2-1 presents the age distribution for
Florida's population in the year 20001.
More than 6.6 million people are
between the ages of 25 and 54, the prime
home purchase years. The main tie
between people and housing is the
household (Myers, 1992). A household
exists when one or more persons occupy
a single housing unit. When bonds of
blood, marriage or adoption relate the
people in a household, they constitute a
family. In Florida, there are 6,337,929
households, 4,210,760 (66.4%) are
family households, 1,779,586 (28.1% of


All of the data analyzed in Section 2 are from the U.S. Bureau of the Census.







..11 1..ii 1. 1. 1.1i ) .i.I fam ily households
., ii l., I I I.... I ;7 681 I1!l.'' o of all households)
II, I. II II. -1 i II I no husband present)
I ,11I., I.,I I', i 1 i I1 luldren under 18. The


'.. i I.L ,I |i. III III size is 2.46
.,!11I iII .'. i!.i, lam ily size
I"1,- 1 I
Fl, i III i, ,i(I I irion is
iIi I I l l I IIii \\ Ih Ite w ith
12 4l '. I2i .... I or 78
I" i< H ,,., .l i Florida
i .. ., ,i ii .,i .... significant
Ei.,. I i i, .1 i I l erican
i ... ..i i ii i I 2 335,505
S.. .. .I. 1 -.6 i.. rcen t.2
TIi. Hi'. inIm' ,i Latino
. .. .li, i., i, i.. .y 7 0 .4
I" !' ii i I, IIi 1.1i decade
., I l ,,. ... ,i,,i ,, i s 1 6 .8
.. ,, . 1 [' 15) o f
F iilis.1 i, .i I! ii !i. T h e
n, I, i, I ,NI i s h as
n, i i, .,s, ,I ': i,, i .i t from


persons
is 2.98


1 '.S I- I,, 211.2 m One of the primary
I1.1 ,, I, i ih. I'i .' housing is the effect
,,I !,igg!., iI, 1!.1 imm migration on
F I.i Ii i Iii.1 heavily populated
.... IIIII TII I, iing consequences of
Ili. ql,, .ill, I m inge are an object of


I I l. Io, s t. lil,,
ii''" 'III publicand thepolicy


A I I, i" I'llll of the population
I, ,1,' I'~. 1 migration, which is
made up of the

Figure 1. Region of Birth of Foreign-Born Population in t r a -s t a t e
movement of
people from
other Florida
counties or the
movement from
other states into
Florida. Another
component of
p o p population
. change is
immigration,
which is the
movement of


people from another country to Florida.
The immigrant population tends to
concentrate geographically in a limited
number of urban areas in the port-of-
entry states. Florida, one of the high
immigration states, attracted an
estimated 1,030,449 immigrants in the


period between the 1990 and 2000
census. This number represents 39
percent of the total number of foreign
born people living in Florida today.
The total immigrant population in
Florida is extremely diverse but heavily
weighted toward newcomers from Latin
American countries. This diversity is
illustrated in Figure 1, which identifies
the region of birth for non-native-born
residents of Florida in 2000. As
illustrated in Figure 1, over 70 percent
of the foreign born population comes
from Latin America; Europe a very
distant second at 14 percent.
Further investigation reveals that
Cubans constitute the largest identifiable
group of the Latin American population.
Of the 2,682,715 people from Latin
America, 833,120 or 31 percent are from
Cuba. Other major groups are Mexicans,
363,925 (13.5%), and Puerto Ricans,
482,027 (18%). The remaining
1,003,643 (37%) persons are from other
parts of Latin America.


I i i i than Race alone or in combination from the 2000 Census. The race data from the 1990
, i i i. .. t directly comparable. Individuals could report only one race in 1990 but could report
S. i.I. ... 1. i)00; plus there were other relevant changes in the 2000 Census questionnaire.


Table 2-1. Florida's Population by Age

Age Group Number Percent
Under 5 years 945,823 5.9
5 to 9 years 1,031,715 6.5
10 to 14 years 1,057,024 6.6
15 to 19 years 1,014,067 6.3
20 to 24 years 928,310 5.8
25 to 34 years 2,084,100 13.0
35 to 44 years 2,485,247 15.5
45 to 54 years 2,069,479 12.9
55 to 59 years 821,517 5.1
60 to 64 years 737,496 4.6
65 to 74 years 1,452,176 9.1
75 to 84 years 1,024,134 6.4
85 years and over 331,287 2.1
Total 15,982,378 100.00







2.2 Population Change in

Selected Counties

The fifteen largest counties were
selected to describe the impact of Florida's
changing population on housing needs
in the state. These fifteen counties (see
Figure 2) reflect the diverse effects of
migration and immigration on housing
- its cost, ownership rates, and
location, and include almost every
region of the state.
Table 2-2 provides selective census
data describing population change,
population density, and housing unit
density per square mile in the fifteen
study sites and the state. Although it is
important to examine the issue of
population density and housing unit
density, it is also important to understand


d
ei
h
ei
b
of

o
C
al
p'
P
p

p~
p'
th


2.3 Migration and Mobility

Population change comes about as a
result of changes in any one of four
components: births, deaths, in-
migration, and out-migration.
Population movement occurs for a
variety of reasons. Two of the primary
reasons are because people are looking
for work or because they are dissatisfied
with current housing. People also move
because they want a place to retire or wish
to be closer to family. Population change
is also divided between mobility, the
movement of people within a county or
given area, and migration, generally
identified as a movement that crosses a
county line (Meyers, 1992).
Mobility does not cause the total
population of a county to change while
migration does. Our interest is primarily


Figure 2. Selected Florida Counties



D L





ensity in relat'. ii 'iii. I-I i
environment in Fl(i I. i r I .. ii. ii. 1 V no.
ave large portic!l. ..1i i li 1ii ii ii.
nvironm entallyseiiti.I i.. I.. .i .I I ARG
uilt upon or that ... !iii iii I ii .. I. /PASCO
f water. BREVAC
The data peril 11, I1..!.. ,- o OU L DIAR R\
bservations:fivec(,iii E't.i.. I, I L, \
)range, Palm Beach PF ..... I.. I 5. S ..,!.'. \.AS!
1 saw population !i, i *I. .. i 11
percent in the period I .ii..!. I ':'11 .. 9-,1.11 1 PALM BEACH
LEE PALM BEACH
inellas Count, l, II I !... i PL
population incr i ....! iI l, !!.,. !, i BPan ARPD
counties, 8.2 perce:.i I ii I .i ili. 1. I,! sI
population densitI ii1 .U --' : ., DADE
er square m ile. Pi!., II i .. . iii i, i.. I'
I li tlnC in i i .ii '. ... 1 i


1,720.4 units per square mile. Other
counties with a population density
exceeding 1,000 persons per square mile
are Broward, Duval, Miami-Dade, and
Seminole.


in those new residents or those persons
who did not live in the same county five
years ago. Table 2-3 illustrates both
mobility and migration. As this table














''iiliii NIII iii'' I i I~i IT II ii 1' ii' ii



Iii' 'II II I I h-1 II ii Ii I l I l II I III


'''II i \ i 'l N kI" II 11111.1 11 .1 1 I i III 'F
1111 1~1 11.11 1111111 iI_)1ii ''i ~ Ili i4' 1111


Table 2-2. Change in Population 1990-2000 and Density Per Square Mile


1990
Population


1 :, J ,



' 11 K







11 7 -






12,937,926
1 11 4






K_1 ., "-




12,937,926


111


2000
Population


1 :. :


44 11






1 1 1' i1 :-:
'I 4:-:


9 11 4l




1JJ: J
15,982,378


Percent
Change



1 .
1 '

S1 "1 i- .


1 -
1' -* I_
1 1:




1 '
2 1. "
1 75


23.53%


Population
Density
per sq. mile





1 I I i



1 1 c
11









1 1 .-. 4


296.4


Housing
Unit Density

1: 1
:. 1I :-:
I .
1 :-::-: "










1? i:. -
1 7 -I




1 J3



135.4


Table 2-3. Mobility Rates and Origins of Movers Since 1995


County

E'.F ,)' -i ,:l


EF : .' -I n :

H ill :J,11:11 i:Ilh
L --
i mi'i. -D ::


F'II 'i : ti






I in-l l o


Total
Total
Population'


1 .1 :. .





4K 1 7 7.-l
2 1 ,i:i. F 1








: 1 1 '*'


J 1 K.K:
41' 1 crc,.:


From Other
Mobility
Rate


4.-. 4 '1


1_ ... I
L,1 1,11 :

S-'4 iii :






I ... : :



4.-. Ku 1, :


4-. *i~ui '


In-County
Movers


1',


;. 4J
:_ : :

'441






,' q: I: :
'I- ,
S.-.


. A n -il : I: I lir iil.:l ~j j -i jri: I. / ii







population increase come from persons
moving from other Florida counties.
However, Table 2-3 shows that a
significant number of movers came to
Florida "From Other States" or from
areas outside of the U.S. as indicated in
the column headed "From Elsewhere."
Not surprisingly, Miami-Dade County
had the smallest percentage of movers
from other Florida counties or from other
states but the highest percentage of
movers from elsewhere outside the
United States. Escambia, Lee, and
Sarasota drew more than 15 percent of
their movers from other states and
Brevard, Pasco, and Volusia County
had less than 2 percent of their movers
come from elsewhere outside the U.S.
In order to assess the movement of
immigrants throughout the state, the
percentage of foreign-born residents that
moved into a county in the 1990-2000
period can be compared with the total
number of foreign born. Of the
1,030,449 immigrants that moved to
Florida in the past ten years, 908,885 or
88 percent located in one of these fifteen


counties (See Table 2-4). The county that
had the largest absolute increase in
immigrants was Miami-Dade, but Orange
and Lee had the largest proportion of
foreign born entering during the decade
of the 1990s with 45.80 and 44.24
percent, respectively.
It is also important to note that all
immigrant groups do not share housing
problems equally. Research into the
housing situation of various immigrant
groups finds that some immigrant
groups fare better that others. Some
ethnic groups receive housing assistance
from religious or fraternal organizations.
Another factor that affects the housing
situation of immigrants is length of time
in the United States. As length of time
in the United States increases the
housing condition of immigrants
generally improves. Immigrants are
frequently described as transitionally
poor. Once they become acclimated to
life in this country, they move up the
income ladder.


2.4 Household Size and Income


(Census)2000


Florida
Counties
6.39%
9.03%
6.61%
7.45%
7.52%
6.13%
2.18%
11.65%
7.28%
13.23%
5.94%
7.91%
6.75%
16.12%
8.89%


From Other
States
14.54%
10.55%
12.16%
16.77%
12.45%
18.70%
4.88%
13.84%
12.92%
14.13%
13.47%
11.17%
17.04%
13.78%
13.91%


From
Elsewhere
1.90%
6.13%
2.55%
2.35%
4.04%
3.09%
9.80%
6.03%
4.37%
1.62%
2.69%
2.21%
2.51%
3.21%
1.91%


For the most part, the fifteen
Florida counties reflect the
nationwide decline in persons
per household. It is thought that
this decline is the result of a
variety of factors: more single
persons electing to live alone or
that they marry and start families
later, divorce, and fewer children.
Another contributing factor is
that many elderly persons that
outlive their spouses frequently
decide to stay in the family
home. Table 2-5 illustrates the
change in average household size
in the 1990-2000 period.
Despite this trend, there are a
number of counties that show an
increase in household size.
Notably, these counties include
Broward, Miami-Dade, Orange,
Palm Beach, and Pasco. The first
two of these, Broward and
Miami-Dade, also had the largest











































I II i I .i- I, .! Iis 111 ,I, I .1- II lii
Sl,,l II, I .!, ll .I II,, i[ i ,fl ,I 1 a l I, ,


., .I II,., I, I s ,l I I ll, .(I ii I i!i ii.


i 1 IIl l. l i i 1.I I I I ll it I, ,, ,I I I,, ll I

I II ,, 1 I I I ,, ,! l II I I i l ' lt 1 l ,

iii| \\ I ii, ii ,i i! I I I, ii II !I I ii


I ,, ,Ii i ,i ii. i I 1 i ,, i! .Ii I.I I Ii
. 1. .l l .l I I . I i I I I II . I I. I


H i p.l.,!i ,,l L., h ,,, ,.,I I. i', I

\ \ Ii ,, ". , |, I. Ii .. I,,, I i,|


I, 1!! I ,I i. I,, I I, ,I I Ip .l I I ll. ,
-b III1 ill 01 1 g 1- 1 1 1. s / ill


Table 2-5. Average Household Size and
Household 1990-2000


County


E .l i .:1



E l: h 1.:. : 1.
r I I I






I rI -I i' .-




I n j II



ril ri.-I &
I : I


1990


Change in Persons Per



2000 Percent Change


Table 2-4. Foreign Nationality
Percent of
Total
Entered 2000 Entering in
County 1990-2000 Total 1990-2000
l'.l+~,.i,:l :: 0 ::_1 1 0 1 ':1. 0 ,
E n : i in ,:I 1 ,7 .-. 4 1 4 .._.7 11 'i0
DL)U. ll l ': 1 :-: -JI l 4I-: I
E :, m t: 1 i 1 1 1
H ill :," -lI l:|h ,- 1 1 O, 1 ,1 2 I I ,,

l, -I- 1 , ..1 1 4, I: :, 1 1
H inll n 111 1, 1I i:. 1 1 1 :.

'i _.i ,n,:.- .:. : i 1 - 1 '-'
InF'.nl_ e 1.030,4:.h 2 61 '1 .50.




S l [ 1 1 1 .:.

'_ nm inolt- 1 2: 00," ,, ,, '-, ,:'
VI-l 1 yd A; i '
State 1,030,449 2,656,171 41.50


"-H-1









Table 2-6. Average Household Size by Race/Ethnicity and Tenure, 2000


White


Own
2.36
2.31
2.52
2.40
2.54
2.23
2.85
2.58
2.22
2.27
2.16
2.42
2.11
2.65
2.30


Black


Rent
2.14
2.06
2.11
2.22
2.11
2.21
2.48
2.20
2.08
2.25
1.90
2.36
2.02
2.20
2.11


Own
2.79
3.31
2.90
2.80
3.00
3.15
3.46
3.23
3.37
2.91
2.84
3.01
2.67
3.06
2.85


Rent
2.66
2.91
2.62
2.78
2.59
2.90
2.89
2.76
2.99
2.78
2.57
2.78
2.68
2.66
2.57


County


the number of persons per household Whites. This comparison is particularly
looks dramatically different when striking in the case of owner-occupied
disaggregated in this fashion. As shown housing. A number of theories have been
in Table 2-6, Blacks and Hispanics almost advanced to explain this difference. One
always live in larger households than do theory is that certain racial or ethnic



Table 2-7. Median Household Income 1989 and 1999


1999 1999
Median Median
Household Household Percent
County Income Income Change
Brevard 30,534 40,099 31.33
Broward 30,571 41,691 36.37
Duval 28,513 40,703 42.75
Escambia 25,158 35,234 40.05
Hillsborough 28,447 40,663 42.94
Lee 28,445 40,319 41.74
Miami-Dade 26,909 35,966 33.66
Orange 30,252 41,311 36.56
Palm Beach 32,524 45,062 38.55
Pasco 21,480 32,969 53.49
Pinellas 26,296 37,111 41.13
Polk 25,216 36,036 42.91
Sarasota 29,919 41,957 40.24
Seminole 35,637 49,326 38.41
Volusia 24,818 35,219 41.91
State 27,483 38,819 41.25



S The .. I l.,,1... categories are as follows: White may be of any ethnic group including Hispanic or Latino.
Black may be of any ethnic group including Hispanic or Latino. Hispanic or Latino may include both those who
identify themselves as Black as well as those who identify themselves as White.


Hispanic or Latino
Own Rent
2.98 2.74
3.23 2.91
3.16 2.68
2.77 2.64
3.18 2.89
3.59 3.54
3.25 2.76
3.41 2.96
3.32 3.33
3.15 3.32
2.84 2.90
3.84 3.67
3.14 3.29
3.26 2.90
3.25 3.19


Brevard
Broward
Duval
Escambia
Hillsborough
Lee
Miami-Dade
Orange
Palm Beach
Pasco
Pinellas
Polk
Sarasota
Seminole
Volusia







groups prefer to live in larger extended
families. Another theory is that the lower
earnings of certain racial or ethnic groups
necessitates the doubling up of families
in order to secure adequate shelter.
However, as expected in all groups, the
average household size is somewhat
greater in owner-occupied housing than
in renter-occupied housing. There is also
a strong tradition of home ownership in
the United States and both federal and
state policies support the ownership of
housing in preference to renting. As
people marry and create families, they
also tend to move toward home
ownership.
The ability to own a home is directly
tied to both the earning power of people
and to the stock of affordable housing.
Table 2-7 illustrates how median
household income varies over the selected
counties. In 1999, Seminole county
ranked highest with a median household
income of $49,326 and Volusia ranked
lowest at $35,219. However, a number
of counties are shown with median
household incomes in the mid-$30,000
range. Pasco County had the greatest
percentage change in income over the
ten-year period with a 53.49 percent
increase. Brevard County showed the
smallest change with a 31.33 percent
increase.
Using the popular rule-of-thumb that
suggests that a housing unit is affordable
if it costs no more than two-and-a-half
times annual income, we can estimate the
ability of households to purchase a home
of median value in each of the counties.
In Broward, Lee, Miami-Dade, Palm
Beach, Pinellas and Sarasota, a household
would have to earn more than the area
median income in order to purchase a
median priced home. Of these, Broward
and Palm Beach counties stand out. In
Broward and Palm Beach a household
would have to earn more than 120
percent of area median income to
purchase a median priced home. Table
2-8 provides a comparison of median
house value in 1989 to median value in
1999. The largest increases in housing


value occurred in Escambia and Lee
counties while Brevard and Volusia saw
the smallest increases.
Poverty also affects a number of
Florida families. There were an estimated
383,131 families below the poverty level
in 2000. This is 9 percent of all families,
virtually the same as in 1990. Of these
families below the poverty level, 281,303
or 73 percent had children under 18 and,
of that number, 164,596 were female-
headed households. When we look at
poverty levels in the 15 counties, we find
that Miami-Dade has the most families
below the poverty level at 14.5 percent
or 80,108 families. The second highest
percentage is found in Escambia County
at 12.1 percent. However, due to the
smaller population in Escambia, this
percentage translates into a total of 9,021
families. Sarasota and Seminole counties
have the lowest level of poverty, bothjust
over 5 percent. Since passage of the
Personal Responsibility and Work
Opportunity Reconciliation Act in 1996
by Congress, welfare benefits were
limited and many of these families
constitute the working poor.


2.5 Owners and Renters

Table 2-9 presents homeownership by
race/ethnicity and age. According to the
2000 Census, there are 6,337,929
occupied housing units in the state. Of
those, 4,441,799 are owner-occupied and
1,896,130 are renter-occupied. The
proportion of total units that are owner-
occupied has increased from 67.25
percent in 1990 to slightly over 70
percent in 2000. Of the owner-occupied
households 3,879,857 are White
households, 380,236 are Black or African
American households, 472,626 are
Hispanic or Latino households, and
50,141 by Asian households. Of the
housing units occupied by White
householders, 74.12 percent are owner-
occupied while only 50.22 percent of
Black or African American householders
are owners. There are both similarities
and differences across race and ethnic


111







categories by age. As expected the
percentage of very young owner-
occupants is quite small with the reverse
true for renters. However, beginning
with householders aged 35 and over,
White owner-occupants are distributed
rather evenly across all age categories.
Black, Hispanic and Asian owner
occupants, however, are concentrated
in the 35-54 year old age categories
with the percentage of older owner
householders trailing off significantly
after 54.
The proportion of renter-occupied
housing units is presented in Table 2-10.
This table's organization mirrors Table 2-
9. As expected, renter householders are
concentrated in the younger age
categories (15 to 24 and 25 to 34 years)
across all race and ethnic groups.


2.6 Summary

This discussion of population and
housing issues related to the recently
released Census 2000 data presents a
picture of Florida and the state's fifteen
largest counties that is greatly different


than the one presented following the
distribution of the 1990 Census. A major
population change occurred in Florida
in the decade between the two census
collections. This change is related to both
the migration of people from states
outside of Florida and to the immigration
of people from foreign countries,
particularly from Latin America.
Understanding population change
and how it impacts housing markets is
crucial to developing effective housing
policies. For example, examining the
average household size for individual
counties points to the need to consider
policies that address housing large,
extended families in counties undergoing
heavy migration and immigration
pressure. These changes in population
also have implications for other aspects
of society. In the future, it will be
important to study the implications of
this population change on schools and
employment as well as housing in the
state of Florida.


Table 2-8. Median Value Owner Occupied Unit*
1989 and 1999

County 1989 1999 Percent Change

Brevard 75,200 94,400 25.53
Broward 91,800 128,600 40.09
Duval 64,000 89,600 40.00
Escambia 57,800 85,700 48.27
Hillsborough 73,100 97,700 33.65
Lee 84,300 112,900 43.35
Miami-Dade 86,500 124,000 32.06
Orange 81,400 107,500 37.40
Palm Beach 98,400 135,200 34.92
Pasco 59,000 79,600 34.92
Pinellas 73,800 96,500 30.76
Polk 61,000 83,300 36.56
Sarasota 87,200 122,000 39.91
Seminole 91,500 119,900 31.04
Volusia 69,400 87,300 25.79
State 77,100 105,500 36.84

* Specified owner-occupied units, which are effectively single-family houses

















Table 2-9. Owner-Occupied Units by Race/Ethnicity and Age


Florida Florida White Black Hispanic Asian
1990 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000
For.:iIl -ownmn i l':.':.u 'le: I 4? :22 J J4 1 ;9'9i' ? 8:7,': .7 ?_0 2 ?i 01 2 2 51 1: 1 1
I-i ntof TO[ I IUnit:, 17 : 7 io.i 5 : 74 1 : : L .-. 1 i' ':


4ge of Householder
H-At :,- i-l l-I 1 :, 2 '4 I -i 1 !1 : 1 '4 : I .-. : 1 .-.I1 : 2 1 .7:


Houal :,hoilI [?11 ,4 :, 100 10.0% 99.71% 99.15 2 120. : 12 I 0.
H :tr: h .l.:l, ?z l h5 i 1 j ,o1 'Y-: 17 : 1 l : 1 1 .1 : '-1": "1 -, 1 1" : -:_ 7, 1 : "

HFtl :, "i l:Hl 5 K il :, 1 '" ;, 5 : 1 I1 -: 1 .5 1- : :: 1 .. 1 : 1 i ;.

H ,i '_:_II ,,,lI _I 7 E '/ 1 : -ri, ,: ,- 1 1. 1 : 1 111 : 1 7 4 : 9 4 :2 1 ; ,: -
rolal 100.00% 100.00% 99.71% 99.15% 100.00% 100.00%








Table 2-10. Renter-Occupied Units by Race/Ethnicity and Age


Florida Florida White Black Hispanic Asian
1990 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000
To IM A R nta o.:.:upwol, : 1 i;,-_ 710]i'9 1 .59'n;, 1,0 1 14 _0.. .7, 5,.40 .4 2.5' 1 b,-2 KA,..
F' i,:. ni ,O:f T L. |I Un..n-i 7' 2. 5 - : : J 4 19: 11' I :
Age of Householder
H u.0I t h l:lyl 1-,[l n 4 1 .o i :, 12 : 12 11:- 11 :: I : b W 1i 4 : 1 ; ':":
HlOt _:,1 o ll:ll '25 K 4 A 1 j 1 1 : -. : W --': 19 ::
HouS:.r_: hol.:ll ?5, [ : ._2.i, : -4 2 4 1: 24 1 :-
H ,.].l_ :hl,,l l J ,[,, ^, J In : 1 1 W .]:- 1 1, J:: 1 2, J : : 1 ,:, 7 --:: 14 J 1:: 1 1 ::
H lo _ihol_ W, J OV E _ 1: : 5_ 4:: ,1 1- S:: 1 1 :-:

HouiE hol_ : 6 5_ r ,1 7, .1, 76 _.,i ] QQ-, ,-i._ :
t _o tiho 5l n_ -, 15. _-: ._-- : :: ' : : 1 1 :
Houiehol.:161~~ii TE ; il n:1: 1.. 1 11


100.01% 100.00% 99.99% 100.01% 99.99% 100.00%


Total







3. Florida's Housing

Supply


3.1 Data Description

To understand and analyze Florida's
stock of housing, tax assessment records
from the 67 county property appraisers
are examined. The resulting database
contains information on every parcel of
land and every structure in Florida,
including: parcel identification; land use
code (vacant residential, single-family,
condominium, etc.); total assessed value;
assessed land value; year in which
structure was built; square footage of the
structure; parcel size; date and price of
the two most recent sales; ad valorem tax
jurisdiction; homestead exemption; and
location of the property by section,
township, and range. The sales data are
for 1999, the last complete year for which
data are available.
Gaps and limitations exist in these
DOR data sets. In some counties, certain
fields of data are not included in the
records, such as sales prices more than
five years ago. In other counties, one or
more data fields are not included for all
properties. Definitions vary somewhat
across counties, so that a data field is not
included in some counties if it is not
directly comparable to the data available
in other counties. An example of this is
square footage. Also the data must be
cleaned. For example, any sales that are
determined to be a "non-arms-length"
transaction (by the DOR transaction
code) are deleted. Additionally, any
observations with obvious mispricing
(due to data entry error) or which are not
considered a sale for purposes of the
report are deleted. For example, the
older of two recent sale prices for a newly
constructed home is usually the sale of


the lot; a price not comparable to the sale
price after the home has been
constructed. Finally, data entry
problems exist that have required the
development of screening rules to
eliminate information that falls outside
reasonable boundaries. Nevertheless, the
property appraiser data provides
information on Florida's housing stock
that is not otherwise available. For
example, Census data quickly become
dated because the Census is only
conducted once a decade. The Census
also is subject to inaccuracies in
evaluating housing unit characteristics
because it relies on the evaluation of the
occupants for estimates of numerous
variables such as property value and age.
Other sources, while current and
valuable, are subject to limitations of
geographic coverage or amount of
information available.4
Florida's housing stock includes single-
family units, multifamily units, and
mobile or manufactured units. Although
all three types of housing units are
represented, the housing inventory is
dominated by the single-family home.
About 58 percent of the state's single
family housing stock is located in six
major metropolitan areas: Fort
Lauderdale, Jacksonville, Miami,
Orlando, Tampa-St. Petersburg, and
West Palm Beach-Boca Raton. Fort
Lauderdale and Miami, because of their
density, also have the distinction of
having the most multifamily housing of
any area in the state. Although not a type
of structure, condominium housing is an
important housing category in some areas
of the state. Broward, Miami-Dade, and
Palm Beach Counties alone have 58
percent of the state's condominiums.
Significant concentrations of
condominiums are also found in Collier,
Lee, Pinellas, and Sarasota Counties.


In the National Association of Realtors (NAR) Home Sales, the median sale price of existing single-family homes,
condos, and co-ops sold in each quarter are reported for the nine largest metropolitan areas in Florida. In addition,
the Florida Association of Realtors (FAR) produces the Florida Home Sales Report that contains information on
monthly sales volume and median sale prices for the 20 major metropolitan areas. While valuable, the NAR and
FAR reports do not contain information on characteristics other than sale price and volume, and in addition are
based only on MLS sales. Moreover, numerous counties are excluded.







Clearly, condominiums tend to be a
coastal phenomenon. By contrast, mobile
or manufactured housing is largely a
rural, inland phenomenon.
Finally, an important characteristic of
the existing housing stock is its age. We
examine the extent to which the age of
the stock exceeds 40 years. The forty-
year mark is considered by some as the
age at which rehabilitation and
remodeling are commonly considered.
Since much of Florida's housing stock was
built from the 1950s forward, the
housing industry needs to think in terms
of meeting the coming demand for
rehabilitation and remodeling.
Jacksonville and Miami are two
metropolitan areas with older housing
stocks that need to have serious
consideration given to the rehabilitation
market.
The following section describes the
existing single-family housing stock in
Florida. Subsequent sections provide
detailed information on the
condominium market and the
multifamily housing market. Although
mobile homes account for a significant
portion of residential housing units in
many rural counties, we are unable to
describe and discuss Florida's mobile
home stock because comprehensive,
accurate data are not available. Accurate
data on manufactured housing (mobile
homes) is difficult to obtain for several
reasons. First, a mobile home is classified
as real property if the owner owns both
the home and the lot. It is these homes
that are included in the property
appraiser files. Other mobile homes,
perhaps the larger share of them, are
located on rented sites and carry a tag
from the Division of Motor Vehicles.
Further, even combining these sources
results in data that are not consistent
from year to year. In addition to
reporting problems, possible causes of
inconsistencies include units not counted


because of confusion about their status,
failure to renew a tag, units placed on
land and not reported to the appraiser,
or uncertainty about the location of the
unit (i.e. in a city or in the
unincorporated portion of a county).

3.2 Single-Family Housing

Summary data by county, with
aggregations to metropolitan and state
totals are included in Table 3-1 (if the
data were not available on the county
property appraiser files for a county, a
"2)" is placed on the Table).
The single-family housing stock of
Florida totals almost 3.7 million units
and the total assessed value of these units
is $370.2 billion. Over seventy-seven
percent of these units are occupied by
their owner; the remainder are renter-
occupied. The mean age of housing units
in the state is 25 years, and the average
size is 1,791 square feet. The number of
single-family sales in 1999 totaled
approximately 273,308, which is equal
to approximately 7.4 percent of the total
housing stock in this state.5 The median
price of a 1999 sale was $111,000. This
is lower than both the 1999 new median
house price in the U.S. of $169,000 and
the 1999 existing house price of
$133,300.6
Florida's housing is geographically
concentrated. The state's 20
metropolitan areas (MSAs) are divided
into "major" metropolitan areas (6
MSAs) and "other" metropolitan areas
(14 MSAs). The major MSAs include
Ft. Lauderdale, Miami, Jacksonville,
Orlando, West Palm Beach-Boca Raton,
and Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater. A
total of fifteen counties are in major
MSAs. The 14 other MSAs include
nineteen counties. A total of 34 of
Florida's 67 counties are therefore found
in metropolitan areas, with the remaining
33 being non-metropolitan.7


111


The number of sales depends on what classes of transactions are regarded as qualified sales. For example, the total
quoted here includes only sales that were arms-length transactions.
The sources for these national prices are: new single family U.S. Census Bureau, Survey of Construction/
Housing Sales Survey; existing single family -National Association of Realtors, Existing Home Sales Survey.







These remaining 33 counties are
further categorized, as shown in the
Tables, into four regional groups:
Northwest, Northeast, Central, and
South, according to categories used by
the University of Florida's Bureau of
Economic and Business Research.
The totals and means for the state
reported above allow for the
determination of the standing of counties
and metropolitan areas relative to the
state, and for comparisons across counties
and metropolitan areas. The six major
MSAs contain over 2.1 million single-
family units and these units comprise
about 58 percent of the total housing
stock in the state. Over one-quarter of
the major MSA total, comprising almost
17 percent of the state, is found in the
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater MSA
(which we will refer to as Tampa Bay).
The Orlando MSA has 11 percent of the
state's single-family stock, the Ft.
Lauderdale MSA about 9 percent, and
the Miami MSA 8.4 percent. Of single
county MSAs, Miami and Ft. Lauderdale
have the largest numbers of single-family
housing units in the state. Together, these
two counties contain over 17 percent of
the state's single-family units. Adding
Palm Beach County results in almost 23
percent of the state's single-family stock
being located in the these three southeast
Florida counties.
The 14 other MSAs contain 34.5
percent of the state's single-family
housing stock, while the 33 non-
metropolitan counties contain only
about 7 percent. The non-metropolitan
counties show the extremes of population
densities in the state. For example,
Lafayette County has fewer than 1,000
single-family units. Other counties with
less than 3,000 units include Baker,
Calhoun, Dixie, Gilchrist, Glades,
Hamilton, Jefferson, Liberty, Madison,


and Union Counties. These 12 counties
combined have only about one-half of
one percent of the total single-family
housing units in the state.
A total of 92,234 single family units
were constructed in the state in 1999.
These units increased the size of the
housing stock in the state by about 2.5
percent. About 54 percent of the new
units were constructed in the six large
metropolitan areas, with over 16 percent
in the Orlando MSA and 13 percent in
the Tampa Bay MSA. Among counties
in the smaller MSAs, Volusia, Lee, Polk,
Brevard, Collier, and Sarasota Counties
all had 3 percent or more of the state's
new construction. Lee County, with
4,566 new units, exceeded the level of
new construction in all of the
metropolitan counties in the state except
Broward, Orange, and Hillsborough.
The construction numbers show growth
in population in several of the smaller
MSAs.
The total assessed value (the property
appraiser's estimate of the value of a home
for the calculation of property taxes) of
single-family units in the state shows a
similar pattern. The total assessed value
of single family units in the state is
approximately $370.2 billion and almost
62 percent of that total is found in the
major MSAs. The three southeast Florida
counties-Miami-Dade, Broward, and
Palm Beach-have almost 30 percent of
the total assessed value. The average
assessed value of a single-family housing
unit in Florida is about $100,000.
Average assessed values range from over
$210,000 in Collier County (Naples
MSA) to about $44,000 in Gadsden
County (Tallahassee MSA) among
metropolitan counties and from a high
of over $214,000 in Monroe County to
a low of about $34,000 in Liberty
County among non-metropolitan
counties.


Multiple county MSAs are as follows: Daytona Beach MSA includes Flagler and Volusia Counties. Ft. Pierce
Port St. Lucie MSA includes Martin and St. Lucie Counties. Jacksonville MSA includes Clay, Duval, Nassau and
St. Johns Counties. Orlando MSA includes Lake, Orange, Osceola and Seminole Counties. Pensacola MSA
includes Escambia and Santa Rosa Counties. Sarasota-Bradenton MSA includes Manatee and Sarasota Counties.
Tallahassee MSA includes Gadsden and Leon Counties. Tampa-St. i .... Clearwater MSA includes Hernando,
Hillsborough, Pasco and Pinellas Counties.







A relative age index is constructed to
compare the average age of housing units
in a county or MSA to the state total. A
problem with the age variable is that the
age of a unit is changed if significant
remodeling and renovations have been
completed on a unit to reflect the date
of those improvements. However,
assuming that improvements to a house
increase the longevity of the unit, then
the improvements may represent a
reasonable means to convey the age of
the stock. The age variable is also not
consistently recorded in all counties.
Counties or MSAs with an older housing
stock than Florida's average have a relative
age index greater than one. Areas with a
relatively young stock have an index less
than one. The housing stock in the major
MSAs is slightly older than the state
average, as the relative age index is 1.04
and the average age is 26 years (rounded)
as compared to the state's 25 year average.
For the other MSAs, the index is 0.92
with an average age of 23 years, and the
non-MSA counties had an age index of
0.96 with an average age of 24 years.
Comparisons at these high levels of
aggregation, however, mask significant
differences in individual MSAs and
counties. For example, with a relative
age index of 0.52, Flagler County in the
Daytona Beach MSA has the newest
housing stock in Florida. This reflects a
single-family housing stock in Flagler
with an average age of 13 years. Other
counties with relative age indexes of 0.75
or below include Clay, St. Johns, Osceola,
and Hernando Counties among major
MSA counties; Collier, Martin, and
Santa Rosa Counties among the other
MSAs; and Citrus and Sumter Counties
in the non-metropolitan category. Many
of the counties with newer housing stocks
are coastal counties that have experienced
rapid growth, others are suburban


counties in growing metropolitan areas.
Citrus and Sumter Counties are
experiencing growth related to major
development targeted to retirement
populations
Single-family housing stocks that are
older than the state average are generally
found in large urban counties or in the
rural, interior counties with smaller
populations. The oldest single-family
stock is in Hamilton County, with a
relative age index of 1.36 and a mean age
of 34 years. Other non-metropolitan
counties with a relative age index of 1.25
or greater include Bradford, Hamilton,
Hardee, Holmes, Jackson, and
Washington. Among the metropolitan
counties, the oldest housing stock is
found in Pinellas County with an average
age of 33 years. Miami-Dade County
and Duval County (Jacksonville) each
had an average age of 32 years. Gadsden
(31 years), Polk (30 years), and
Escambia (30 years) also have relatively
old housing stocks.
Similar to the relative age index, a
relative size index also was constructed.
This index compares the average size of
units in each county or MSA to the state
average (several counties include
unconditioned space in the measure of
unit size with resultant significantly larger
size, where identifiable these counties are
not reported for the square footage
variable). The average size of a single-
family housing unit in the state of Florida
is 1,791 square feet and the averages for
the major MSAs, other MSAs, and non-
metropolitan areas show little variation
around that average.8 Counties with
relative size averages of 1.20 (compared
to 1.0 for Florida) or greater include St.
Johns and Manatee. No clear pattern
emerges as to characteristics of counties
with larger square footage of units.


Square footage is a field whose definition varies across the 67 county datasets.


III







Counties with units that are smaller
than average are generally non-
metropolitan counties. While a number
of non-metropolitan counties had
average size indices below 0.9, only a few
non-metropolitan counties had relative
size indices below 0.85. This index level
indicates an average unit size of around
1,500 square feet. Non-metropolitan
counties at or below 0.85 include
Holmes, Monroe, and Taylor.
Metropolitan counties at or below 0.85
were Lake, Volusia, and Marion.
Counties with the largest number of
sales transactions in 1999 are, as
expected, the largest counties in
population. About 61 percent of the
single-family transactions in the state in
1999 were in the major MSA counties,
with 14.5 percent in the Tampa Bay MSA
and 14.4 percent in the Orlando MSA.
Among individual counties Broward was
the highest with 12.1 percent of the state
total while Orange had 7.5 percent and
Miami-Dade had 6.9 percent of Florida's
1999 transactions. Over 24 percent of
transactions in 1999 were in the three
southeast Florida counties-Miami-
Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach.
Over 33 percent of all sales in 1999
were in other MSA counties, while the
remaining 5 percent were in the non-
metropolitan counties. Sarasota and
Brevard Counties each had 3.5 percent
of the state's transactions in 1999, Lee
County had 3.3 percent.
The turnover rate measures the
percentage of total units sold in each area.
Units sold as a percentage of total units
in the large MSAs were 7.7 percent. The
sales in other MSAs equaled 7.3 percent
of total units, in the non-MSA counties
they were 5.3 percent. Turnover of
single-family housing units is clearly
higher in MSAs than in non-MSA
counties. Counties with fewer than 100


transactions were small, rural counties
including Calhoun, Dixie, Gilchrist,
Glades, Hamilton, Jefferson, Lafayette,
Liberty, Madison, and Union (with a
state low of 23 transactions).
The highest single-family median sales
prices in 1999 were in Monroe
($226,000), Collier ($179,400), St.
Johns ($162,000), Franklin ($148,000),
Martin ($145,000), and Palm Beach
($140,000) Counties. Other counties
with median sales prices above $120,000
include Broward, Nassau, Miami-Dade,
Lee, Manatee, Seminole, and Walton. All
the counties with high median prices are
coastal counties. Counties with low
median prices include a number with
median prices at or below $50,000 in
1999 were: Dixie ($50,000), Holmes
($46,750), Lafayette ($43,500), Liberty
($36,500), and Washington ($49,900).
The sales price data further illustrate
the differences between urban and rural
counties and between coastal and non-
coastal counties. The highest mean prices
in 1999 are in coastal counties, several
of which are not major urban counties
(for example, Collier, Franklin, and
Martin). At the other extreme, counties
with the lowest mean house prices are
generally rural, slow growing, and located
in the interior of the state.


3.3 Condominiums

The role of condominiums in
providing housing in a county is another
indicator of the differences in housing
stock across counties. Table 3-2 contains
summary information on the state's stock
of condominiums. As expected,
condominiums are an important source
of housing in coastal counties where a
number of retirees live, but not in interior
counties. Summing across counties
indicates that there were 1,255,741
condominium housing units in the state











Table 3-1. Single-Family Housing Stock


% of % owner assessed
state occupied value($mils)


Florida

Major Metro Areas
Ft. Lauderdale MSA
Broward County

Jacksonville MSA
Clay County
Duval County
Nassau County
St. Johns County
MSA total

Miami MSA
Miami-Dade County

Orlando MSA
Lake County
Orange County
Osceola County
Seminole County
MSA total

Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater MSA
Hernando County
Hillsborough County
Pasco County
Pinellas County
MSA total

West Palm Beach-Boca Raton MSA
Palm Beach County

Major MSAs subtotal

Other MSAs
Daytona Beach MSA
Flagler County
Volusia County
MSA total

Ft. Myers-Cape Coral MSA
Lee County

Ft. Pierce-Port St. Lucie MSA
Martin County
St. Lucie County
MSA total

Ft. Walton Beach MSA
Okaloosa County

Gainesville MSA
Alachua County

Lakeland-Winter Haven MSA
Polk County

Melbourne-Titusville-Palm Bay MSA
Brevard County

Naples MSA
Collier County

Ocala MSA
Marion County

Panama City MSA
Bay County


3,699,921 100.0


332,532


35,796
206,205
12,938
34,184
289,123


310,514


54,923
207,518
45,552
100,631
408,624


44,285
242,544
100,925
237,562
625,316


192,595

2,158,704



18,838
128,918
147,756


122,865


37,320
59,253
96,573


51,040


46,067


113,027


141,150


51,702


64,577


44,029


77.4 370,230 100.0


39,349


3,096
16,702
1,356
4,875
26,028


37,689


4,673
21,415
3,913
10,533
40,534


3,122
21,105
6,939
21,714
52,881


31,527

228,008



1,785
10,058
11,842


14,318


6,377
4,368
10,745


4,676


3,636


7,371


11,389


10,895


4,139


3,174


Total units














% of Average Relative
state age age index


New units
Average Relative constructed
size size index in 1999


% of Number of Median 1999
state 1999 sales sale price


100.0


25 1.00 1,791


394,086



41,293


3,249
18,061
1,493
5,375
28,178


40,683


4,804
22,213
3,956
10,914
41,888


3,157
23,261
7,307
23,692
57,417


33,504

242,963



1,801
10,573
12,374


14,929


6,777
4,436
11,213


4,899


3,951


7,680


12,002


12,174


4,397


3,234


0.52 2,077
1.00 1,520
0.96 1,589


3.8 20 0.80


1.7 17 0.68
1.1 20 0.80
2.8 19 0.76


1.2 22 0.88


1.0 24 0.96


1.9 30 1.20


3.0 22 0.88


3.1 16 0.64


1.1 20 0.80


0.8 24 0.96


1.00 92,234 100.0 273,308 111,000


8,110


1,375
3,992
542
1,852
7,761


3,504


3,197
6,616
2,614
2,546
14,973


1,017
6,148
3,129
1,830
12,124


3,446

49,918


1.16 1,254
0.85 2,846
0.89 4,100


2) 2) 4,566


1,893
1,546
1,685


1,945


1,885


2)


1,592


2)


1,526


1,814


1,094
1,449
2,543


1,354


1,060


2,789


3,278


2,994


2,339


962


33,177 134,500


3,288 106,000
13,706 98,000
868 137,100
3,297 162,000
21,159 107,900


18,974 135,000


5,133 105,000
20,518 111,000
4,559 105,000
8,870 126,250
39,080 113,000


2,693 75,000
12,756 112,000
9,576 79,000
14,683 101,000
39,708 96,500


14,590 140,000

166,688 118,000



1,413 101,100
9,047 84,500
10,460 86,193


5.0 9,133 123,600


3,167 145,000
3,401 79,000
6,568 99,000


3,642 100,700


3,243 101,500


7,346 83,000


9,672 90,000


4,879 179,400


4,780 79,900


2,852 90,000


continued on next page


Total just
value milsls)


1,910


2,018
1,772
2,028
2,205
1,865


1,882


1,505
1,899
1,853
2)
1,822


2)
1,835
1,710
1,673
1,747


2)

1,831











Table 3-1. Single-Family Housing Stock continued


Total
% of % owner assessed
Total units state occupied value($mils)


Pensacola MSA
Escambia County
Santa Rosa County
MSA total

Punta Gorda MSA
Charlotte County

Sarasota-Bradenton MSA
Manatee County
Sarasota County
MSA total


Tallahassee MSA
G;
Le
MSA total

Other MSAs subtotal


Nonmetro County Regions
Northwest nonmetropolitan area
Calhoun County
Franklin County
Gulf County
Holmes County
Jackson County
Jefferson County
Liberty County
Wakulla County
Walton County
Washington County
MSA total

Northeast nonmetropolitan area
Baker County
Bradford County
Columbia County
Dixie County
Gilchrist County
Hamilton County
Lafayette County
Levy County
Madison County
Suwannee County
Taylor County
Union County
MSA total

Central nonmetropolitan area
Citrus County
Putnam County
Sumter County
MSA total

South nonmetropolitan area
De Soto County
Glades County
Hardee County
Hendry County
Highlands County
Indian River County
Monroe County
Okeechobee County
MSA total

Regional nonmetro subtotal

1) Less than 25 observations
2) Not available


84,379
34,904
119,283


52,296


58,161
99,526
157,687


9,141
59,108
68,249

1,276,301



2,453
5,182
4,946
3,141
9,598
1,927
1,238
4,441
12,247
3,925
49,098


2,873
5,017
10,164
2,423
1,680
1,862
778
5,944
2,973
4,927
4,677
1,078
44,396


39,352
15,232
12,759
67,343


5,002
1,514
3,883
4,714
26,907
33,216
22,793
6,050
104,079

264,916


75.1 5,116
77.7 3,271
75.8 8,387


1.4 72.4 4,816


77.6 6,474
75.1 13,030
76.0 19,505


76.1 403
75.7 5,335
75.7 5,738

75.1 120,633


90
540
355
122
407
78
42
261
1,476
164
3,533


149
257
556
79
84
71
31
309
116
234
201
43
2,130


79.4 2,558
73.2 834
77.2 824
77.6 4,217


267
83
165
271
1,530
4,142
4,881
369
11,708


7.2 70.5 21,589














Average Relative
age age index


New units
Average Relative constructed
size size index in 1999


1.20 1,771
0.72 2,005
1.08 1,839


0.99 1,668
1.12 1,559
1.03 3,227


% of Number of Median 1999
state 1999 sales sale price


4,810 92,000
2,625 104,000
7,435 96,000


1.3 20 0.80


1.00 2,289
1.00 1,701
1.00 1,917


1.24 1,633
0.92 1,608
0.96 1,612


23 0.92 1,728


5,220


6,946
14,188
21,135


409
5,610
6,019

128,519



93
567
410
131
446
79
47
273
1,577
174
3,797


156
265
580
81
85
72
33
319
117
255
205
45
2,215


2,648
889
853
4,390


274
84
174
271
1,541
4,231
5,252
376
12,202

22,604


0.72 2)
1.24 1,995
0.68 1,644
0.84 1,836


1,712
1,609
1,557
1,636
1,708
1,941
1,523
1,656
1,730


2) 2) 2) 2) 3,634 87,900


1.28 2,231
0.95 2,750
1.07 4,981


0.91 85
0.90 1,202
0.90 1,287


5,136 122,900
9,672 114,300
14,808 118,000


212 69,250
3,950 99,000
4,162 97,900


0.96 35,480 38.5 92,614 99,000


14
83
141
29
83
41
6
193
573
71
1,234


72
72
219
11
39
29
19
94
28
99
75
22
779


1,080
150
1,481
2,711


57
28
29
26
481
999
366
126
2,112


64 55,000
282 148,000
240 105,000
120 46,750
294 58,000
55 65,000
31 36,500
229 98,000
903 130,000
117 49,900
2,335 88,000


126 79,000
192 70,000
528 72,950
65 50,000
55 71,500
47 53,000
40 43,500
194 59,950
64 55,722
216 60,250
184 57,342
23 1)
1,734 65,000


2,527 69,900
565 65,000
334 85,750
3,426 70,000


133 70,000
47 63,500
128 52,000
167 65,000
1,613 64,000
2,437 95,000
1,687 226,000
299 65,000
6,511 100,000


5.7 24 0.96 1,726 0.96 6,836


Total just
value milsls)


5,801
3,492
9,293


1,611
1,605
1,631
1,480
1,704
1,750
1,571
1,618
1,901
1,623
1,701


1,681
1,668
1,814
2)
1,688
1,612
1,579
1,650
1,565
1,635
1,527
1,752
1,674


7.4 14,006 80,500











Table 3-2. Condominium Housing Stock


Total
% of % owner assessed
state occupied value($mils)


Florida

Major Metro Areas
Ft. Lauderdale MSA
Broward County

Jacksonville MSA
Clay County
Duval County
Nassau County
St. Johns County
MSA total

Miami MSA
Miami-Dade County

Orlando MSA
Lake County
Orange County
Osceola County
Seminole County
MSA total

Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater MSA
Hernando County
Hillsborough County
Pasco County
Pinellas County
MSA total

West Palm Beach-Boca Raton MSA
Palm Beach County

Major MSAs subtotal

Other MSAs
Daytona Beach MSA
Flagler County
Volusia County
MSA total

Ft. Myers-Cape Coral MSA
Lee County

Ft. Pierce-Port St. Lucie MSA
Martin County
St. Lucie County
MSA total

Ft. Walton Beach MSA
Okaloosa County

Gainesville MSA
Alachua County

Lakeland-Winter Haven MSA
Polk County

Melbourne-Titusville-Palm Bay MSA
Brevard County

Naples MSA
Collier County

Ocala MSA
Marion County

Panama City MSA
Bay County


1,255,741 100.0


207,929


1,101
7,082
2,594
7,685
18,462


263,251


2,513
30,147
3,291
8,124
44,075


646
20,853
10,871
88,027
120,397


258,440

912,554



1,606
21,549
23,155


51,456


13,208
12,019
25,227


9,324


3,090


6,876


23,319


69,251


6,116


10,161


47.4 113,273 100.0


12,533


66
540
510
989
2,105


24,177


181
3,498
1,045
388
5,112


32
1,156
478
6,097
7,763


23,988

75,679



158
1,823
1,981


5,695


949
982
1,930


1,392


140


283


1,530


10,142


337


931


Total units














Totaljust
value milsls)


New units
% of Average Relative constructed
state age age index in 1999


115,995 100.0



12,970 11.2


68 0.1
610 0.5
523 0.5
1,051 0.9
2,253 1.9


24,810 21.4


185 0.2
3,535 3.0
1,045 0.9
396 0.3
5,162 4.5


32 0.0
1,223 1.1
489 0.4
6,314 5.4
8,059 6.9


24,275 20.9

77,528 66.8



160 0.1
1,865 1.6
2,025 1.7


5,778 5.0


964 0.8
988 0.9
1,953 1.7


1,413 1.2


145 0.1


283 0.2


1,552 1.3


10,402 9.0


340 0.3


942 0.8


% of Number of Median 1999
state 1999 sales sale price


18 1.00 12,435 100.0 108,287 87,000


2)


3
2)
130
2)
133


2)


14
2)
291
30
335


0
354
24
299
677


5,153

6,298



23
2)
23


1,835


0
2)
0


2)


72


2)


338


2,812


63


9


15,836


105
692
355
700
1,852


25,363


218
2,148
207
811
3,384


48
1,307
882
7,635
9,872


18,544

74,851



173
2,136
2,309


5,318


1,145
1,112
2,257


901


383


676


2,219


6,333


500


1,084


57,900


66,500
77,000
240,000
126,000
107,000


93,100


65,500
60,000
87,900
58,500
62,000


58,650
69,000
47,000
66,000
64,900


102,000

80,000



97,000
92,000
93,000


118,000


63,000
92,250
76,000


189,000


59,500


49,900


77,500


135,000


58,250


115,000


continued on next page













Table 3-2. Condominium Housing Stock continued


Pensacola MSA
Escambia County
Santa Rosa County
MSA total

Punta Gorda MSA
Charlotte County

Sarasota-Bradenton MSA
Manatee County
Sarasota County
MSA total


Total
% of % owner assessed
Total units state occupied value($mils)


4,276
1,256
5,532


10,967


23,062
43,250
66,312


Tallahassee MSA
Leon County
MSA total

Other MSAs subtotal


0.9 29.9 1,000


50.0 1,926
41.3 5,811
44.4 7,737


0.1 26.3
0.1 26.3


311,470


Nonmetro County Regions
Northwest nonmetropolitan area
Franklin County
Gulf County
Wakulla County
Walton County
MSA total

Northeast nonmetropolitan area
Bradford County
Columbia County
Levy County
Taylor County
MSA total

Central nonmetropolitan area
Citrus County
Putnam County
Sumter County
MSA total

South nonmetropolitan area
De Soto County
Glades County
Hardee County
Hendry County
Highlands County
Indian River County
Monroe County
Okeechobee County
MSA total

Regional nonmetro subtotal

1) Less than 25 observations
2) Not available


27
36
82
7,785
7,930


1,474
141
106
1,721


452
32
223
139
1,301
11,515
7,989
158
21,809

31,717


27 0.0
27 0.0


34.8 33,703


2
5
6
1,264
1,277


1
3
13
1
17


68
9
4
81


26
2
7
7
54
1,227
1,187
5
2,515


2.5 26.8 3,891


















% of Average
state age

0.4 17
0.1 2)
0.5 17


New units
Relative constructed
age index in 1999


% of Number of
state 1999 sales


0.9 16 0.89


2) 2) 1,001 78,000


2,074
4,538
6,612


28 0.0 26 1.44
28 0.0 26 1.44


17 0.94 5,9i


88,000
120,000
108,000


0 0.0 47 48,700
0 0.0 47 48,700

39 48.2 30,206 107,500


13
3
11
1,050
1,077


6
2
18
0
26


145
12
2
159


59
1
19
13
104
1,109
644
19
1,968

3,230


1)
1)
1)
175,205
170,910


1)
1)
1)
0
92,600


60,000
1)
1)
60,000


69,900
1)
1)
1)
51,000
105,000
170,000
1)
118,200

132,000


Total just
value milsls)

435
158
593


1,036


1,981
6,037
8,018


Median 1999
sale price

106,500
190,000
130,000


34,508



2
5
6
1,271
1,285


1
3
13
1
18


69
9
4
82


26
2
7
7
54
1,253
1,220
6
2,575

3,959










Table 3-3. Multi-Family Stock with Two to Nine Units in Complex


Total
Total % of assessed
complexes state value($mils)


Florida 150,816 100.0 14,743

Major Metro Areas
Ft. Lauderdale MSA
Broward County 19,738 13.1 2,386

Jacksonville MSA
Clay County 278 0.2 26
Duval County 4,639 3.1 385
Nassau County 308 0.2 39
St. Johns County 1,788 1.2 212
MSA total 7,013 4.7 663

Miami MSA
Miami-Dade County 31,916 21.2 3,716

Orlando MSA
Lake County 1,126 0.7 91
Orange County 10,056 6.7 679
Osceola County 828 0.5 69
Seminole County 1,159 0.8 88
MSA total 13,169 8.7 926

Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater MSA
Hernando County 375 0.2 30
Hillsborough County 5,224 3.5 345
Pasco County 1,194 0.8 72
Pinellas County 13,429 8.9 1,228
MSA total 20,222 13.4 1,675

West Palm Beach-Boca Raton MSA
Palm Beach County 10,820 7.2 1,050

Major MSAs subtotal 102,878 68.2 10,416

Other MSAs
Daytona Beach MSA
Flagler County 320 0.2 31
Volusia County 7,868 5.2 521
MSA total 8,188 5.4 552

Ft. Myers-Cape Coral MSA
Lee County 5,480 3.6 494

Ft. Pierce-Port St. Lucie MSA
Martin County 919 0.6 67
St. Lucie County 1,500 1.0 91
MSA total 2,419 1.6 159

Ft. Walton Beach MSA
Okaloosa County 726 0.5 81

Gainesville MSA
Alachua County 1,760 1.2 107

Lakeland-Winter Haven MSA
Polk County 4,403 2.9 233

Melbourne-Titusville-Palm Bay MSA
Brevard County 2,938 1.9 270

Naples MSA
Collier County 1,878 1.2 209

Ocala MSA
Marion County 1,072 0.7 69


III
















%of Totaljust


state value($mils) state


100.0 15,124 100.0


New complexes
% of Average Relative constructed


age age index


in 1999


35 1.00 463 100.0


2,460


26
405
41
238
711


3,801


91
687
69
88
935


31
351
72
1,280
1,733


1,067

10,707



31
535
567


500


68
91
159


82


108


234


275


212


70


continued on next page










Table 3-3. Multi-Family Stock with Two to Nine Units in Complex continued

Total
Total % of assessed
complexes state value($mils)
Panama City MSA
Bay County 754 0.5 69

Pensacola MSA
Escambia County 1,870 1.2 136
Santa Rosa County 630 0.4 57
MSA total 2,500 1.7 192

Punta Gorda MSA
Charlotte County 903 0.6 96

Sarasota-Bradenton MSA
Manatee County 4,550 3.0 434
Sarasota County 2,277 1.5 262
MSA total 6,827 4.5 696

Tallahassee MSA
Gadsden County 11 0.0 8
Leon County 2,035 1.3 168
MSA total 2,046 1.4 176

Other MSAs subtotal 41,894 27.8 3,405

Nonmetro County Regions
Northwest nonmetropolitan area
Calhoun County 3 0.0 2
Franklin County 16 0.0 4
Gulf County 3 0.0 1
Holmes County 7 0.0 1
Jackson County 61 0.0 12
Jefferson County 13 0.0 3
Liberty County 2 0.0 0
Wakulla County 17 0.0 1
Walton County 43 0.0 6
Washington County 10 0.0 3
MSA total 175 0.1 32

Northeast nonmetropolitan area
Baker County 24 0.0 4
Bradford County 18 0.0 1
Columbia County 209 0.1 19
Dixie County 3 0.0 0
Gilchrist County 8 0.0 1
Hamilton County 17 0.0 4
Lafayette County 4 0.0 0
Levy County 67 0.0 6
Madison County 37 0.0 4
Suwannee County 44 0.0 3
Taylor County 8 0.0 2)
Union County 9 0.0 1
MSA total 448 0.3 44

Central nonmetropolitan area
Citrus County 374 0.2 23
Putnam County 134 0.1 8
Sumter County 74 0.0 5
MSA total 582 0.4 36

South nonmetropolitan area
De Soto County 167 0.1 10
Glades County 35 0.0 2
Hardee County 113 0.1 6
Hendry County 386 0.3 25
Highlands County 710 0.5 37
Indian River County 728 0.5 65
Monroe County 2,583 1.7 656
Okeechobee County 117 0.1 8
MSA total 4,839 3.2 810

Regional nonmetro subtotal 6,044 4.0 922

1) Less than 25 observations
2) Not available


III














% of Totaljust
state value($mils)

0.5 69


New complexes
% of Average Relative constructed % of
state age age index in 1999 state

0.5 20 0.57 11 2.4


0.7 98 0.7 24 0.69


448
265
713


8
168
177

3,461


2) 2)











Table 3-4. Multi-Family Stock with Ten or More Units in Complex


Florida

Major Metro Areas
Ft. Lauderdale MSA
Broward County

Jacksonville MSA
Clay County
Duval County
Nassau County
St. Johns County
MSA total


Miami MSA
Miami-Dade County

Orlando MSA
Lake County
Orange County
Osceola County
Seminole County
MSA total

Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater MSA
Hernando County
Hillsborough County
Pasco County
Pinellas County
MSA total

West Palm Beach-Boca Raton MSA
Palm Beach County

Major MSAs subtotal

Other MSAs
Daytona Beach MSA
Flagler County
Volusia County
MSA total

Ft. Myers-Cape Coral MSA
Lee County

Ft. Pierce-Port St. Lucie MSA
Martin County
St. Lucie County
MSA total

Ft. Walton Beach MSA
Okaloosa County

Gainesville MSA
Alachua County

Lakeland-Winter Haven MSA
Polk County

Melbourne-Titusville-Palm Bay MSA
Brevard County

Naples MSA
Collier County

Ocala MSA
Marion County

Panama City MSA
Bay County


Total
complexes

13,624



1,800


Total
% of Assessed
state value($mils)

100.0 26,941



13.2 4,391


133
1,679
21
142
1,974


3,945


109
713
80
302
1,204


46
768
129
778
1,721


768

10,081



5
485
490


29.0 5,157


% of
state

100.0



16.3


0.5
6.2
0.1
0.5
7.3


19.1


105
3,124
299
1,014
4,542


30
2,464
146
1,511
4,150


5.6 2,054

74.0 22,269


156 1.1 434 1.6


144 1.1 120 0.4


382 2.8 516 1.9


291 2.1 250 0.9


275 2.0 425 1.6


93 0.7 380 1.4


85 0.6 109 0.4


126 0.9 121 0.4


III













New complexes
% of Average Relative constructed


26,945 100.0


age age index

30 1.00


in 1999


177 100.0


continued on next page


Totaljust
value($mils)


4,393


133
1,679
21
142
1,974


5,158


105
3,124
299
1,014
4,542


30
2,464
146
1,511
4,150


2,054

22,272



4
359
363


434


87
75
162


120


516


250


425


380


109


121












Table 3-4. Multi-Family Stock with Ten or More Units in Complex continued


Total
Total % of Assessed % of
complexes state value($mils) state
Pensacola MSA
Escambia County 131 1.0 241 0.9
Santa Rosa County 47 0.3 27 0.1
MSA total 178 1.3 268 1.0

Punta Gorda MSA
Charlotte County 23 0.2 16 0.1

Sarasota-Bradenton MSA
Manatee County 129 0.9 374 1.4
Sarasota County 207 1.5 367 1.4
MSA total 336 2.5 741 2.8

Tallahassee MSA
Gadsden County 44 0.3 3 0.0
Leon County 325 2.4 506 1.9
MSA total 369 2.7 509 1.9

Other MSAs subtotal 3,070 22.5 4,412 16.4

Nonmetro County Regions
Northwest nonmetropolitan area
Calhoun County 3 0.0 0 0.0
Franklin County 25 0.2 5 0.0
Gulf County 4 0.0 4 0.0
Holmes County 6 0.0 3 0.0
Jackson County 14 0.1 3 0.0
Jefferson County 6 0.0 1 0.0
Wakulla County 1 0.0 1 0.0
Walton County 54 0.4 17 0.1
Washington County 3 0.0 1 0.0
MSA total 116 0.9 35 0.1

Northeast nonmetropolitan area
Baker County 1 0.0 1 0.0
Bradford County 11 0.1 8 0.0
Columbia County 23 0.2 14 0.1
Dixie County 4 0.0 1 0.0
Gilchrist County 2) 2) 2) 2)
Lafayette County 1 0.0 1 0.0
Levy County 10 0.1 5 0.0
Madison County 5 0.0 3 0.0
Suwannee County 15 0.1 9 0.0
Taylor County 3 0.0 2) 2)
Union County 4 0.0 1 0.0
MSA total 77 0.6 42 0.2

Central nonmetropolitan area
Citrus County 47 0.3 18 0.1
Putnam County 27 0.2 18 0.1
Sumter County 43 0.3 8 0.0
MSA total 117 0.9 44 0.2

South nonmetropolitan area
De Soto County 33 0.2 10 0.0
Glades County 4 0.0 1 0.0
Hardee County 8 0.1 5 0.0
Hendry County 14 0.1 10 0.0
Highlands County 55 0.4 22 0.1
Indian River County 41 0.3 55 0.2
Monroe County 6 0.0 35 0.1
Okeechobee County 2 0.0 1 0.0
MSA total 163 1.2 139 0.5

Regional nonmetro subtotal 473 3.5 260 1.0


1) Less than 25 observations
2) Not available


III

















Total just
value($mils)

241
27
268


Average
age

22
18
22


New complexes
Relative constructed
age index in 1999


16 0.1 1) 2) 2) 2)


374
367
741


3
506
509

4,413



0
5
4
3
3
1
1
17
1
35


1
8
14
1
2)
1
5
3
9
2)
1
42


18
18
8
44


10
1
5
10
22
55
35
1
139


1.0 21 0.70


3 1.7







in 2000. Approximately 47 percent of
these units are owner-occupied, much
less than the 77 percent owner-occupied
percentage found in the detached single-
family stock. A total of 729,620 units,
or over 58 percent of condominium units
in the state, are located in three southeast
Florida counties: Miami-Dade, Broward,
and Palm Beach. By contrast, 15
counties report no such units. All of the
latter counties are non-MSA counties. In
total, the non-MSA counties have 2.5
percent of the total condominiums in the
state, and 86 percent of these are found
in three counties: Indian River, Monroe,
and Walton.
Other coastal metropolitan counties
have a much smaller stock of
condominium units than the three
southeast counties, but condominiums
still play a major role in the provision of
housing in those counties. For example,
Collier County's 69,251 condominium
units far exceed the 51,702 single-family
housing units in the county.
Condominium units also exceed single-
family units in Palm Beach County.
Other counties with large numbers of
condominiums are Lee, Manatee,
Pinellas, and Sarasota.
Discussion of the characteristics of
condominiums in the state is limited by
the lack of data in a number of the data
fields in some counties. These fields
include year built, age, and price. The
following description is based on the
available data.
The mean age of condominium units
for the state of Florida is approximately
18 years, below the 25-year average for
single-family units. Some of the newest
condominium stocks are located in non-
metropolitan counties including
Franklin, with a mean age of 2 years.
Among metropolitan counties,
Hernando has a mean age of 12 years for
condominium units.


The number of condominium sales in
the state totaled 108,287 units in 1999.
Of these over 23 percent occurred in
Miami-Dade County, 17 percent in Palm
Beach County, and over 14 percent in
Broward County. These three southeast
counties accounted for about 55
percent of all condominium
transactions in the state.
Median sales prices for condominiums
vary widely across counties. The median
price of condominium units sold in the
state in 1999 was $87,000. Counties with
median prices above $125,000 were the
$135,000 in Collier County, $170,000
in Monroe County, $240,000 in Nassau
County, $189,000 in Okaloosa County,
$126,000 in St. Johns County, $190,000
in Santa Rosa County, and $175,205 in
Walton County. These are coastal
counties and, with a few exceptions, are
not part of major MSAs. The relatively
high price of portions of the
condominium stock in Florida appears
to reflect the steep premium paid for the
ocean accessibility that is an attribute of
many condominiums in coastal settings
and the retirement clientele for the units.9
Condominium units in the larger
counties have lower median sales prices,
including $57,900 in Broward, $69,000
in Hillsborough, $93,100 in Miami-
Dade, and $60,000 in Orange County.
While these counties have high-priced
units, the medians indicate a broader
market for condominium units.


3.4 Multifamily Housing

The county property appraiser data
used in this report do not allow an
accounting for the number of units in
multifamily rental structures, as only
information on the structures (parcels)
is reported. It is this information that is
summarized below. We divide the


Data on the average size (square footage) of the condominium stock is not reported because of numerous prob
lems and inconsistencies with the DOR data.


111







multifamily stock, consistent with the
appraiser data, into two categories:
complexes with less than 10 units and
complexes with 10 or more units.
Table 3-3 contains summary
information on the state's stock of
multifamily properties containing fewer
than 10 units. There are about 150,000
multifamily properties that contain fewer
than 10 units in the state of Florida.
Approximately 68 percent of these are
found in the six major metropolitan
areas, with another almost 28 percent
located in other metropolitan areas.
Only four percent of these small
multifamily complexes are found in non-
MSA counties. Over 21 percent of the
units in this category are found in Miami-
Dade County. Only ten of the 33 non-
MSA counties have more than 100 such
complexes, with Monroe having over 40
percent of the non-MSA total. Other
non-MSA counties with more than 100
properties were Columbia, Citrus,
Putnam, DeSoto, Hardee, Hendry,
Highlands, Indian River, and
Okeechobee Counties. These numbers
again point to the differences that are
observed between the urban, coastal
counties and the rural, interior counties
of Florida. As with condominium units,
which are also likely found in multifamily
structures, it is apparent that urban and
coastal counties are the predominant
settings for such structures while the rural
and interior counties are characterized by
a largely single-family housing stock.
The mean age of multifamily
complexes containing 9 or fewer units is
35 years for the state. Counties with the
oldest average ages (and at least 100
properties) include Duval (48), Miami-
Dade (40), Monroe (40), and Pinellas
(49). Counties with more than 100
properties and a relative age index of
below 0.6 (the state index is 1.0) include


Bay, Flagler, Hernando, and Santa Rosa.
The latter counties have either
experienced recent growth or have little
multifamily stock so that their average
is impacted by one or a few projects.
Table 3-4 contains information on
multifamily complexes with 10 or more
units. With a total of 13,624 complexes
in the state, there are about 9 percent as
many of these larger complexes as of
complexes with less than 10 units, but
these complexes undoubtedly comprise
more total units than the smaller
complexes. About 29 percent of these
larger complexes are located in Miami-
Dade County, with about 13 percent in
Broward County and in the Tampa Bay
MSA. The six major MSAs contain
approximately 74 percent of all
complexes of this type. The other MSAs
contain over 22 percent of the state total,
with Volusia, Alachua, and Leon
Counties having more than 300
complexes. The Alachua and Leon
numbers reflect the concentration of
college students in those communities.
Non-MSA counties contain only 3.5
percent of the state's stock of larger
apartment complexes.
The average age of these larger
complexes is 30 years. Miami-Dade
(36 years), Pinellas (35 years), and
Volusia (38 years) Counties have
relatively old stocks of larger
complexes. At 20 years, the Orlando
MSA has the youngest stock of such
complexes among the six major MSAs.
There were 177 complexes of greater
than 10 units constructed in 1999.
About 75 percent of this construction
occurred in the six major MSAs
including over 27 percent in the
Orlando MSA.







3.5 Impact of Housing on the

Florida Economy

There are a number of ways in which
the impact of housing on the Florida
economy might be measured. For
example, we might examine the number
of jobs created in the construction and
related industries, the payroll on those
jobs, or the materials cost of a housing
unit. We examine two simple measures.
First, in 1999 there were 273,308 sales
of single family housing units (new and
existing). With an average sales price of
over $100,000, these transactions total
approximately $27.5 billion in sales. This
figure is the basis from which transaction
fees, transfer taxes, mortgage fees,
purchases of new furnishings and
equipment, and other expenditures
flowing into the economy are generated.
Second, the total assessed value of the
single family housing stock in the state
was over $370 billion in 2000. This
figure is the basis for property taxes as
well as a measure of the wealth of
households. The figure does not include
condominiums, multifamily rental
structures, or mobile homes.
The Local Economic Impact Model
developed by the Economics, Mortgage
Finance, and Housing Policy Division of
the National Association of Home
Builders in Washington D.C. examines
the economic impact of 1,000 new single
family homes on a local economy for an
average city. Using the same numbers
would yield the following impact for the
92,234 new units constructed in the state
in 1999: 321,172 jobs, $11.5 billion in
local income (local business owners'
income and local wages and salaries), and
$1.2 billion in local taxes.


3.6 Summary

The county property appraiser data
provides a wealth of data on
characteristics of the housing stock across
the state. The county-by-county and
MSA summaries clearly show differences
in the importance of single-family
properties, condominiums, and
multifamily properties. Also apparent are
differences across the state in the age and
size of units. Finally, there are significant
differences in the numbers of transactions
each year and in the median values of
properties. The differences show that the
state might be characterized as two states
when thinking about the housing
market, with the large urban and coastal
counties at one extreme and the small,
rural inland counties at the other.
Location, population size and density,
and growth rates are among the
obvious variables that are not included
in this analysis but are reflected in the
housing activity across counties. For
example, rapidly growing counties
have a newer housing stock on average,
and coastal counties have higher
average property values.


111







4. Housing

Affordability



4.1 Introduction

The affordability of housing is an
important issue nationally and in the
state of Florida. Households are
concerned about it because affordability
affects their ability to become a
homeowner, as well as the size and
amenities of the home they are able to
purchase. Real estate salespersons and
other industry participants also are
concerned, because the number of
households able to afford the purchase
of a home is an important determinant
of single-family sales activity in their local
markets. Housing affordability also has
become an important public policy issue,
as home ownership is viewed as being an
important goal for both individual and
societal reasons.
Three factors are the primary
determinants of the affordability of
housing. These are household income,
housing prices, and mortgage rates. For
a household considering
homeownership, an additional factor is
the rate of appreciation in housing prices.
This chapter begins with a discussion of
historic appreciation rates for single
family housing. It then investigates issues
of housing affordability using a concept
called cost burden.


4.2 Housing Affordability

Index

The affordability of housing is a major
issue nationally, and it is no different in
Florida. One measure of housing
affordability is the cost of
homeownership, commonly conveyed
through housing affordability indices.


These indices generally indicate that
affordability increased substantially
towards the end of the last decade,
primarily as a result of lower interest rates
during that period. A housing
affordability index for an area brings
together the price and the income
elements that contribute to housing
affordability. The most common index
construction method is that used by the
National Association of Realtors (NAR).
The NAR index measures the ability of
the median income household in an area
to afford a median priced house. In
addition to the median income and
median house price in an area, index
construction requires the current
mortgage interest rate, assumptions
about the down payment required to
purchase the median price home, and the
maximum percentage of household
income that can be spent on housing. An
index of 100 indicates the typical
(median) family in the area has sufficient
income to purchase a single-family home
selling at the median price.10 Median
house prices are calculated from the
DOR county property appraiser datasets.
Median household incomes come from
data purchased from Claritas, Inc.
Although important, median sale
prices in a county or MSA do not alone
determine housing affordability. A
second important factor is the income
of area residents. The highest household
incomes in Florida are generally in the
coastal counties that also contain many
high priced housing units. However,
median household incomes and single-
family house prices in an area are only
moderately correlated which can lead
to significant differences in housing
affordability across counties and MSAs.
Our index construction method can
be represented by the following formula:

Median family income
Affordability Index Q=al ingino x100
Qualifying income


10 Affordability indices are calculated by NAR only for the nine largest metropolitan areas in Florida. Moreover,
most of these MSAs are recent additions to the report, and thus provide little historical information on how
housing affordability has changed over time and across counties. In addition, the affordability indices published
by NAR are based only on homes that have sold through the use of a Multiple Listing Service. Thus, the home
sales used to calculate the median sale price may not be representative of all housing stock in the area.







Qualifying income is defined as the
income needed to qualify for a mortgage
to finance an existing median-priced
home. As an example, if median family
income in the area is $35,000, the
median price of an existing home is
$100,000, and the mortgage interest rate
is 10 percent, the calculated affordability
index is 103.9:

$35,000
4 x 12(0.80x $100,000) x 0.008776

=$35,000
$33,700

=103.9%


The denominator is the annual
mortgage payment, multiplied by 4,
because the income needed to qualify for
a 20 percent down, 10-percent, monthly
payment loan is assumed to be four times
the annual mortgage payment. This is
equivalent to a household spending 25
percent of their monthly income on
mortgage costs, and is consistent with the
qualifying ratio used by residential
mortgage lenders. The calculated index
of 103.9 indicates that median household
income in the area is slightly (3.9
percent) higher than that needed to
qualify for the loan. The higher the
calculated affordability index, the easier
it is for a household in the area with
median income to purchase a median-
priced home.
To calculate affordability indices for
each county and MSA, mortgage rates
for each year are obtained from the
Federal Housing Finance Board. These
effective mortgage rates (points are
amortized over 10 years) combine fixed
and adjustable rate loans.11
We calculate affordability indices
(Table 4-1) for all counties in Florida and
for the years for which we have sufficient
data (at least 25 sales each year, as the
sales provide the basis for the calculation


of a median sales price of a home). Our
index calculations differ from those of the
NAR because we use the property
appraiser data as the source for home sales
transaction prices rather than the
Multiple Listing Service used by the
Realtors, and our median income is
household rather than family income.
Our numbers are therefore not directly
comparable, but do give an indication
of relative affordability across the state.
Consistently across counties and
MSAs, the affordability indices show that
housing affordability in Florida has
improved in the 1990s (i.e. the level of
the affordability index has generally
increased). Florida's improved housing
affordability in the 1990s is consistent
with an increase in affordability at the
national level. In 1990, the U.S.
affordability index was 109.5. In 1999
the index had risen to 139.1. That is,
the median household income in the
U.S. is 39.1 percent greater than that
needed to purchase a median price home
(using standard financing). In Florida
the median of 67 counties was 121.75
in 1989 and 140.06 in 1999 (the Florida
median is not directly comparable to the
national number because the Florida
median is derived from the 67 county
indices). Several factors account for this
favorable state and national trend. First,
housing prices in many Florida counties
and MSAs experienced significantly more
appreciation in the 1980s than has been
the case in the 1990s, a period during
which housing prices have generally,
though not always, increased at modest
rates. This pattern of price appreciation
likely reflects the national recession of
early 1990s and, in Florida, the decreased
demand for housing as migration flows
into the state slowed from the levels
experienced in the 1980s.
In the calculation of an affordability
index, the mortgage interest rate is a key
component because of its role in


111


The NAR also uses the effective mortgage rates supplied by the Federal Housing Finance Board and assumes, as we
do, that the income needed to quality for standard financing is four times the annual mortgage payment. Thus,
our calculated affordability indexes are directly comparable to those calculated by NAR for the country's largest
metropolitan areas.







determining the qualifying income
needed to purchase the median priced
house. A second reason for the increased
affordability is that mortgage interest
rates have declined significantly during
the 1990s relative to levels in the 1980s.
After averaging 9.8 percent in the 1986-
1990 time period, mortgage rates fell to
an average of 9.3 percent in 1991, 8.1
percent in 1992, and 7.2 percent in 1993.
Mortgage rates in the 1990s remained
well below their average level during the
1980s.
A third factor that has contributed to
increased affordability in the 1990s is the
steady increase in median household
incomes. In fact, median incomes
generally have increased faster than
median house prices over the 1990s time
period. This increase in median incomes
may be a result of the aging of the
population, leading to more skills and
higher pay, among other factors.
In interpreting the affordability
indices for each county, several caveats
should be considered. First, as a result
of the limited sales transactions in some
smaller counties, the median sale price
may vary considerably from year to year.
This fluctuation in the estimated median
house price produces an exaggerated
variability in the calculated affordability
index. Second, the calculation of the
index using median house prices and
incomes may mask the distribution of
affordability across the various income
brackets within a county or MSA. For
example, if house prices in a county tend
to be tightly distributed around their
median value, while incomes are more
widely dispersed, then affordability
problems will exist at the lower income
ranges that are not identified by the
affordability index. Thus, standard
indices based on median house prices and
median incomes are only one measure
of housing affordability. What the
affordability indices provide is an
indication of the relative change in
affordability within counties over time,
and the relative affordability of housing
across counties.


Although counties throughout the
state have generally experienced
improved housing affordability in the
1990s, considerable differences exist
across counties when they are compared
in 1999. Table 4-2 ranks the affordability
of each county. Only eight Florida
counties had an affordability index below
100 in 1999. The least affordable
counties [i.e., those with ranks closer to
66, only 66 counties are included because
insufficient sales precluded the inclusion
of Union County] included a major
metropolitan county in Miami-Dade,
which ranked 62nd of the 66 counties,
two suburban counties in major
metropolitan areas (St. Johns, ranked 60
and located in the Jacksonville MSA, and
Lake, ranked 59 and located in the
Orlando MSA), and coastal counties in
south Florida and on the panhandle,
including Collier (63), Gulf (61),
Franklin (66), Monroe (65), and Walton
(64). The least affordable of all counties
is Franklin with an affordability index of
56.73, likely reflecting the growth in
retirement and second homes in the
county in the 1990s driving up the
median house price. Monroe (the Florida
Keys), a growth restricted county with a
unique environment, is the second least
affordable with an affordability index of
72.74. The index exceeds the 1999
national average of 139.1 in 34 of the 66
counties.
At the other extreme, the most
affordable counties are generally rural
counties in the interior of the state,
mostly in the north part of the state.
Liberty County is Florida's most
affordable county in 1999 (index =
277.3) and has the lowest median house
price in the state. Other top 10 high
affordability index counties in 1999
include Lafayette, Hardee, Washington,
Bradford, Taylor, Holmes, Calhoun,
Baker, and Madison. These counties are
inland, rural, and characterized by
relatively low median house prices. It
should be emphasized that most of the
counties with the highest affordability
indices also had fewer than 200










Table 4-1 Affordability Index


1989 1992

Major Metro Areas

Fort Lauderdale PMSA
Broward 2) 2)

Jacksonville MSA
Clay 129.38 163.13
Duval 2) 2)
Nassau 123.90 136.11
Saint Johns 108.48 128.92

Miami PMSA
Miami-Dade 87.61 105.23

Orlando MSA
Lake 113.50 124.34
Orange 106.34 130.59
Osceola 104.30 127.23
Seminole 114.30 148.41

Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater MSA
Hernando 119.20 151.23
Hillsborough 108.83 135.01
Pasco 2) 2)
Pinellas 103.85 132.01

West Palm Beach-Boca Raton MSA
Palm Beach 88.61 114.34

Other Metro Areas

Daytona Beach MSA
Flagler 87.15 116.31
Volusia 2) 2)

Fort Myers-Cape Coral MSA
Lee 106.82 128.33

Fort Pierce-Port St. Lucie MSA
Martin 89.36 113.48
Saint Lucie 115.12 168.69

Fort Walton Beach MSA
Okaloosa 118.21 145.54

Gainesville MSA
Alachua 2) 2)

Lakeland-Winter Haven MSA
Polk 121.33 146.99

Melbourne-Titusville-Palm Bay MSA
Brevard 121.75 155.77

Naples MSA
Collier 93.59 102.29

Ocala MSA
Marion 113.59 157.05

Panama City MSA
Bay 125.00 145.96

Pensacola MSA
Escambia 122.57 144.82
Santa Rosa 127.33 150.25


11I
















1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999




2) 2) 2) 2) 2) 105.29


163.40 145.75 159.29 156.64 167.99 157.18
2) 2) 2) 143.73 151.91 151.94
134.06 126.34 123.77 117.39 120.80 114.09
107.28 97.02 102.62 99.65 106.61 98.74


94.02 82.81 90.93 88.01 94.08 93.46


113.22 111.99 109.17 109.12 108.06 99.46
123.19 128.53 132.26 133.96 139.75 136.25
116.71 117.42 125.58 121.01 118.14 110.46
142.49 134.33 144.94 146.89 151.01 149.15


136.72 136.56 134.91 145.81 147.38 142.08
131.58 126.71 133.41 135.56 141.03 138.15
2) 2) 2) 2) 2) 143.48
122.76 120.42 126.60 134.10 137.50 134.58


112.23 108.71 117.78 115.29 133.70 131.14




106.34 96.61 117.51 132.55 133.64 121.40
2) 2) 2) 2) 2) 136.74


111.92 105.01 106.57 105.91 115.51 112.34


103.89 104.64 103.67 102.12 115.02 108.91
157.19 147.24 154.37 156.14 156.95 153.52


142.29 133.81 142.26 142.22 145.54 149.13


2) 113.74 115.52 113.48 116.16 113.87


139.88 137.59 139.78 144.89 156.23 147.55


151.42 147.59 150.85 148.07 148.75 147.50


98.39 88.75 97.00 94.96 98.12 93.38


127.14 125.34 133.12 132.04 136.99 136.93


149.03 136.71 143.18 139.72 140.53 143.18


158.13 163.17 147.91 136.80 142.96 137.96
138.40 126.71 138.39 131.59 136.48 134.06


continued on next page













Table 4-1 Affordability Index continued


1989 1992


Major Metro Areas

Punta Gorda MSA
Charlotte


Sarasota-Bradenton MSA
Manatee
Sarasota


Tallahassee MSA
Gadsden
Leon


Nonmetro County Regions

Northwest nonmetro area
Calhoun
Franklin
Gulf
Holmes
Jackson
Jefferson
Liberty
Wakulla
Walton
Washington

Northeast nonmetro area
Baker
Bradford
Columbia
Dixie
Gilchrist
Hamilton
Lafayette
Levy
Madison
Suwannee
Taylor
Union


Central nonmetro area
Citrus
Putnam
Sumter

South nonmetro area
DeSoto
Glades
Hardee
Hendry
Highlands
Indian River
Monroe
Okeechobee

2) = data not available


113.40 142.44


94.99 122.53
111.27 140.30


127.54 138.78
124.47 142.58


156.75 186.57
188.59 123.48
147.19 167.16
132.27 214.40
132.75 151.73
2) 2)
2) 2)
171.01 189.88
122.86 169.54
175.44 180.16


2) 176.73
164.21 197.56
125.29 139.15
153.13 198.51
153.88 176.60
2) 2)
2) 2)
103.20 158.35
117.59 228.77
2) 207.12
172.60 199.46
2) 2)


102.48 154.44
128.93 149.55
2) 2)


133.29 159.84
138.25 133.25
160.56 254.60
142.60 143.33
115.03 156.50
2) 2)
60.57 82.24
136.85 162.21


III

















1995 1996 1997 1998 1999


125.44 119.95


120.35 117.24
125.65 126.25


140.95 131.23
140.80 129.89




189.40 172.54
89.85 80.74
142.22 137.28
168.14 197.92
182.76 157.28
219.79 240.65
2) 264.64
154.87 138.08
118.03 103.74
171.93 182.72


195.67 189.34
201.03 184.66
154.60 152.04
196.89 192.71
124.43 190.33
188.93 185.09
2) 2)
153.49 135.02
216.56 214.23
157.15 173.53
147.20 180.41
2) 2)


148.84 134.16
146.28 155.86
2) 2)


182.96 171.48
141.49 142.79
252.68 210.55
157.93 150.26
149.69 130.69
146.38 145.46
73.34 64.29
145.86 144.35


130.38 130.01


120.23 119.24
136.04 132.73


144.20 121.45
138.15 145.44




179.84 183.06
75.87 86.53
161.99 141.61
176.34 204.04
160.45 149.20
176.37 176.65
2) 2)
134.89 140.86
103.06 89.22
178.49 171.46


185.12 159.80
172.97 188.56
167.16 161.17
165.40 2)
141.26 124.33
2) 146.83
2) 2)
148.48 130.42
177.88 166.05
156.84 142.31
179.37 197.31
2) 362.84


143.10 153.11
157.73 167.84
2) 2)


158.41 173.56
187.49 162.45
219.74 199.65
146.85 165.80
134.03 140.93
147.72 151.74
70.83 68.60
159.59 145.63


136.12 133.09


121.14 113.06
145.64 135.67


133.20 135.20
146.67 151.97




197.40 169.09
66.21 56.73
123.98 96.12
197.12 170.48
155.15 154.75
190.74 161.02
295.88 277.36
136.22 141.08
88.17 86.94
175.09 178.10


171.26 167.26
198.13 174.53
156.97 140.33
182.43 137.65
141.92 128.29
141.75 146.50
209.57 209.24
160.42 140.82
174.13 165.69
169.98 148.53
198.06 170.53
2) 2)


146.62 132.55
172.72 153.77
150.78 107.57


150.30 139.78
149.17 131.90
200.78 179.90
189.89 159.81
159.69 146.58
170.00 165.17
74.26 72.74
152.43 150.37

















Table 4-2 Affordability Index and Rank


Liberty
Lafayette
Hardee
Washington
Bradford
Taylor
Holmes
CalhoLun
Baker
Madison
Indian River
Jefferson
Hendry
Clay
Jackson
PuItnam
Saint Lucie
Leon
Duval
Okeechobee
Seminole
Okaloosa
Suwannee
Polk
Brevard
Highlands
Hamilton
Pasco
Bay
Hernando
Wakuilla
Levy
Columbia


1999
Index

277.36
209.24
179.90
178.10
174.53
170.53
170.48
169.09
167.26
165.69
165.17
161.02
159.81
157.18
154.75
153.77
153.52
151.97
151.94
150.37
149.15
149.13
148.53
147.55
147.50
146.58
146.50
143.48
143.18
142.08
141.08
140.82
140.33


1999
Rank


County

DeSoto
Hillsborough
Escambia
Dixie
Marion
Voliusia
Orange
Sarasota
Gadsden
Pinellas
Santa Rosa
Charlotte
Citrus
Glades
Palm Beach
Gilchrist
Flagler
Nassau
Alachua
Manatee
Lee
Osceola
Martin
Sumter
Broward
Lake
Saint Johns
Gulf
Miami-Dade
Collier
Walton
Monroe
Franklin
Union


1999
Rank


1999
Index

139.78
138.15
137.96
137.65
136.93
136.74
136.25
135.67
135.20
134.58
134.06
133.09
132.55
131.90
131.14
128.29
121.40
114.09
113.87
113.06
112.34
110.46
108.91
107.57
105.29
99.46
98.74
96.12
93.46
93.38
86.94
72.74
56.73
na







transactions in 1999. The small number
of transactions is not surprising in small
counties, but may be indicative of the
level of competition in the market and
therefore the pressure on housing prices.
Also, with so few transactions, the
estimated median house price is subject
to more random variation from year to
year, and thus likely overstates the true
variation in affordability in these small
counties.


4.3 Cost Burden

The affordability index indicates that
housing became more affordable in
Florida in the late 1990s as compared to
the early part of the decade. The primary
factor in increasing affordability is the
decline in mortgage interest
rates during the period.
However, the use of indices Tabl
focuses only on the average
and masks what is happening Inco
at the low end. In addition, Perc
the index reported only Area
Fam
examines owner-occupied
housing. For households of <20
lower income, the loss of 20-:
affordable housing from the 30-:
stock and price increases that 40-i
have exceeded the growth in 50-
60+
incomes, among other factors,
Tota
have led to a worsening
problem of housing
affordability. As a means of
examining the number of households
with a housing affordability problem, we
calculate a number called "cost burden."
Our estimate of the number of Florida
renter households paying more than 30
percent of their income toward housing
costs. The 30 percent figure corresponds
to that used in federal housing programs
and is a common standard used to assess
housing affordability problems. Our
calculation is for renter households only.
While over 20 percent of the State's
owner households are also cost burdened,
the renter households are the target of
most assistance programs historically.


Our estimate is that in the year 2002
there were about 1.9 million renter
households in Florida (Table 4-3). Of
these households, about 794,000 were
cost burdened, representing over 41
percent of all renters. Of the households
paying more than 30 percent of their
income toward rent, over 300,000
(almost 38 percent) pay more than 50
percent. Most of the households paying
more than 50 percent of their income
toward housing costs had incomes below
50 percent of the median income for
their area.
About 20 percent of the cost burdened
renter households reside in Miami-Dade
County. With 11.5 percent in Broward
County and 6.5 percent in Palm Beach
County, our estimate is that more than


e 4-3 Cost Burden


me:
:ent of
Median
ily

)%
29.9%
39.9%
49.9%
60%
%
lI


All Renters


Cost
Burden
>30%


203,679 143,328
150,316 118,609
143,884 118,970
144,200 113,109
150,885 104,359
1,123,762 195,468
1,916,726 793,843


one-third, 38 percent, of cost burdened
households are located in the three south
Florida counties. An additional 15
percent of the state's cost burdened
households are in the Tampa Bay
metropolitan area, so that a total of 53
percent of Florida's renter households
experiencing cost burden are located in
four MSAs.







5. Florida Housing

Price Trends: Market

Comparisons and

Forecasts
Dean H. Gatzlaff, Ph.D.
FSU Real Estate Center
College of Business
The Florida State University


5.1 Introduction

The value of Florida's residential real
estate constitutes a sizable portion of the
state's wealth, and expected changes in
property values can dramatically
influence the state's economy. The
wealth and prosperity of most
homeowners is more affected by
movements in the market value of their


This report is organized as follows. In
the next section, Section 5-2, Florida-
wide single-family house price indices are
reported for the 1971 to 2000 period and
compared with changes in the consumer
price index (CPI-U), the broad stock
market index (S&P500), and a long-term
government bond index. In Section 5-
3, relative house price appreciation rates
in Florida's 11 planning districts from
1981 to 2000 are compared and
contrasted. In addition, house price
movements in the larger urban areas are
compared to the smaller, more rural areas.
A comparison of relative house price
appreciation among the 20 Florida MSAs
is presented in Section 5-4. Section 5-5
reports average annual house price
movements from 1996 to 2000 for
individual counties where sufficient data
are available. County transaction data
were aggregated where adequate data


Figure 3: Florida Annual House Price Index and Appreciation
(1971-2000)
2.50 20.0

2.00 -I-l 15.0
-- .*'
> 1.50 10.0 I

1.00 V + I 5.0
--L
0 .5 0 1 1 + 1,, , , 1,, , ,1 0 .0

0.00 -5.0
o CN ;tf CO 0 CD CN ;tf CO 0 CD CN ;tf CO 0 CD
N- N- N- N- N- 0 0 0_ 0 ) 00 00 00 CD
0 0) 0) 0) 0) 0) 0) 0) 0) 0 0) 0) 0) ) 0) C

m Annual Price Change ---Price Index -+- Inflation


Note: 2001 values are preliminary. House price appreciation rates are derived from the Florida
House Price Index (all counties) for years 1981 to 2001, and from the Florida House Price Index (six
largest MSAs) for years 1971 to 1980. General inflation is derived from the Bureau of Labor Statistics,
Consumer Price Index (CPI-U).


personal residence than by changes in the
value of any other real or financial asset.
The purpose of this report is to document
single-family house price movements for
the state of Florida.


were not available to provide reasonably
reliable results. Projected house price
appreciation rates are reported for the
2001 to 2010 period in Section 5-6.


III







5.2 Statewide Measures of

Single-Family House Prices in

Florida

The annual movements in the overall
price of single-family housing in Florida
for the last 30 years is summarized in


price appreciation averaged only 2.99
percent for the period, compared to an
average inflation rate of 4.51. Thus,
inflation-adjusted house price increases
were negative at -1.52 percent. In fact,
only in 1986 did house price appreciation
exceed inflation during this decade. This
characteristic continued through the first


Table 5-1. Summary of Florida House Price Appreciation, Housing Returns, Inflation, and
Selected Asset Classes (1971-2000)


Nominal
House Price
Apprec.


1971-1980
1981-1990
1991-2000

1971-2000
1971-2000


Annual Mean
Annual Mean
Annual Mean

Annual Mean
Std. Dev.


9.52
2.99
3.10

5.20
5.04


2001-prelim. Annual Mean 6.01


Real Nominal
General House Price Returns to
Inflation Apprec. Housing


1.41
-1.52
0.33

0.08
1.75

4.46


14.52
7.99
8.10

10.20
n.a.

11.01


Note: 2001 values are preliminary. House price appreciation rates are derived from the Florida
House Price Index (all counties) for years 1981 to 2001, and from the Florida House Price Index (six
largest MSAs) for years 1971 to 1980. General inflation is derived from the Bureau of Labor Statistics,
Consumer Price Index (CPI-U). Returns to housing assume a five-percent long-run dividend to housing
from implicit rent. Returns to stocks (S&P500) and bonds (Long-Term Government Bonds) are as
reported by Ibbotson Associates (Stocks, Bonds, Bills and Inflation, 2001).


Figure 3 and Table 5-1 below. Figure 3
indicates annual house price appreciation
in the state of Florida climbed as high as
17.5 percent in 1978 and experienced
declines of nearly 1 percent in 1977 and
1991. In the inflationary 1970s, house
prices increased dramatically and were
characterized by both high levels of
appreciation and volatility. During this
period, annual appreciation rates
averaged 9.52 percent statewide. This is
contrasted with an annual inflation rate
of 8.11 percent. Hence, inflation-
adjusted house prices increased, on
average, 1.41 percent per year (0.0952 -
0.0811 = 0.0141).
With the exception of 1981 (when
appreciation was 7.25 percent), annual
house price changes in the 1980s were
relatively moderate-hovering between
1.89 and 3.02 percent. Annual house


half of the 1990s. However, a reversal of
this trend occurred in the mid-1990s and
continued through the last half of the
1990s. On average, from 1991 to 1995
Florida house prices increased at a rate
of 1.53 percent per year compared to
average inflation rates of 2.98 percent.
In contrast, the 1996 to 2000 period saw
house prices increase 4.66 percent per
year, while general inflation slowed to
2.54 percent to yield a historically high
inflation-adjusted rate of appreciation of
2.12 percent. This trend appears to have
continued into the year 2001, where
preliminary estimates indicate house
appreciation rates of 6.01 percent during
a period experiencing only 1.55 percent
inflation.
Over the 30-year period nominal
house price returns averaged
approximately 10 percent per year. This







I.,I' i 111,1, s .,iiiii ,, i ii i, i,,,"..r, i ,


II III I I I I I' I I.i I I I I I I 1 II II

I I\, I i I, 1 \i III i II' I I I I II I 1II I I ..11 '1





it !, !.l 1. !,7 n I1 11 III. I, I,1 1 1 I

' l ii l -'. i l I ii ii l ill .. ll ,ii 1.iiII, I I l i1 I
.151 1i I l\ i I'.IIi i l. i 11, If I t ill I -1f l 4, I
I,,II I I i, l ,! li i. I I 'lll .1 i I !!,1




l,, i i,,, I,, I,,, I il l I l,, r


S n...i it A.1, Measures of

N ie Price

i],:i ,i uii j r 1l 'ii da

-I I' I' I i. i Ii i ,, I i II al appreciation
!.ii. i Iiiiihi! l, I... ated in large
! I l, ,,1 il.! i .1 1 .1 designated as
N, II, i ,, ,II SI I i I' ,I Areas (M SAs) by
II, I. B iii I ,,i I III, Census versus
I .1 iii4 I.. iI, I ill. side of M SA
,I iL!ii.iIi II ..! ., i I .,! led in Figure 4.
Siii_ i l, -1.i!iiii\ I i ,i'i't I atedinthenon-
S\ 1 S ,Ilil ,i ..i i ,i. i tly experienced
I411., I. 1 .1i .I .i O ,Im lion from 1986
In,, l 1 I i, 'l i.,Iv, in 1999 and
2000, have
house prices


Figure 4: Florida Annual House Price Appreciation
MSA Counties v. Non-MSA Counties (1981-2000)


I' ,, |
i"" ,


ar

'II .1" i i:rl,-. -[.1 i i,-.i.. I.i._



i i ..i _' , ',n ,, ,,, i,,, 1 1,,, I, i .., ., l I .. . I 1 .1 .. . I II i 1 .., I II I
....1 I-- I I .-- -- .. -- I . I l 1 -1 II. * 1.. .- -I. .1. I II.. -1 .




i 1, l i,.i i ,2 i ,i I, i I I 1. .1 I .. . I ,1 i,, I,.. I I I li, _'11 i l.. ,.I

i I i i l ''.1 I I II ' d I I' l i I ' \' I II ii I i IIIlI I l

DI I I l h l I I it .1 1 1 11 II i
I ,I ,, 1 I11il i I I I II lNl,,,I , IiII II II I


increased at
a greater
rate in the
M S A
designated


Counties
than in the
smaller
areas.
PlLf1l l ;im 7


estimates
indicate this
trend
continues
into 2001.
Compar-
ing house
price
movements
among the
n Florida reveals
Figure 5 charts
house price
.:ades (1981-90
of the planning


I1l i,,1 i I ,, I , I ., . I I I I I I I I I i iteowners pay rent to
1 I .. 1,1 1 ...1 1 I II II- d I Ii ., 1 1 .I I 11I I h i_ 1 ,1 sum ed by urban and
S .. I I I 1 I I I I ,, . I, ,, I ,i housingg is generally in
. . i ......' .... .... .... '" . . ....... tore (larger) housing
S.. ...... ... .. .. nd (net rent/ m market
,1,, i .. I ... .. .. ii .. 1 i .i .... I i .. . . i i , I, 'th e asset th an tra d i-

I' ,, i .. i I .. . during the 1997-2001
i" ,, I , ,, 1,ii ... , .. i" I, I I I,, I ,,. 1 ,1 ... ,,1, ,, have been estim ated

I..I I.. .. ,, .. ... I .. . I ,, . . ....... ,,. . .. II 1. I I 1,.. .n d of Section 5 .







districts. Statewide
annual house price
appreciation
averagedjust over 3.0
percent both
decades. However, it
is clear from Figure 5
that, in general,
South Florida (i.e.,
Districts 8, 9, 10, &
11) experienced
higher rates of
appreciation in the
1980s than North
Florida (Districts 1,
2, 3, & 4). This
trend then reversed
in the 1990s.
Table 5-2 details
the period trends in
appreciation across
the districts of the
state. It is interesting
to note that West
Florida, Northeast
Florida, and the
Tampa Bay area
experienced high
rates of house price


Figure 5: Average Annual House Price Appreciation
Florida MSAs, Non-MSAs, and Districts (1981-2000)

5.0%
c 4.5%
4.0%
C 3.0%-
S2.5%--
- 2.0% -
S1.5%
w 1.0%
0.5%
0.0%


o 1981-1990 1991-2000


Note: District 1 (Bay, Escambia, Holmes, Okaloosa, Santa Rosa,
Walton, and Washington Cos.), District 2 (Calhoun, Franklin, Gadsden,
Gulf, Jackson, Jefferson, Leon, LIa.., and Wakulla Cos.), District 3
(Alachua, Bradford, Columbia, Dixie, Gilchrist, Hamilton, Lafayette,
Madison, Suwannee, Taylor, and Union Cos.), District 4 (Baker, Clay,
[adeq. data not avail, for Duival], Nassau, Putnam, and St. Johns Cos.),
District 5 (Citus, Levy, Marion, and Sumter Cos.), District 6 (Brevard,
Flagler, Lake, Orange, Osceola, Seminole, and Volusia Cos.), District 7
(De Soto, Hardee, Highlands, Okeechobee, and Polk Cos.), District 8
(Hernando, Hillsborough, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas, and Sarasota Cos.),
District 9 (Charlotte, Collier, Glades, Hendry, and Lee Cos.), District 10
(Indian River, Martin, Palm Beach, and St. Lucie Cos.), and District 11
(Broward, Dade, and Monroe Cos.)


appreciation, relative to the state, in the
early 1980s and late 1990s. The second
half of the 1980s was marked by high
rates of house price appreciation in South
Florida, followed by high rates in West
Florida and the Apalachee districts from
1991-1995. House price indices are
reported for each district in Table 5-3.15
Annual rates of house price appreciation
and the respective correlation of the 20-
year series are noted in Tables 5-4 and 5-
5. House price movements are found to
be highly correlated among Districts 6,
7, 8, and 9 (i.e., through East Central,
Central and Southwest Florida, including
the Tampa Bay and Orlando areas), and
between the districts comprising
Jacksonville, Orlando, and Tampa.


5.4 M X-Level Measures of

Single-Family House Price

Appreciation in Florida

Average annual rates of appreciation
are listed for five-year periods from 1981-
2000 in Table 5-6, as well as the relative
ranking of each MSA among the 20
MSAs with respect to house price
increases. During the 1980 to 1985
period, the larger MSAs of Jacksonville
and Tampa-St. Petersburg led other
MSAs in house price appreciation. In
the later half of the 1980s, MSAs located
in the southern portion of the state,
particularly MSAs such as Naples, Punta
Gorda, and Ft. Myers in the southeast
led the rest of the state in house price
increases. The 1991 to 1995 period saw
a change in this trend with relatively


Note that sufficient transaction data were not available to report 2001 appreciation estimates at the district,
MSA, and county level; however, preliminary statewide measures are estimated and reported.










S Ifi





Table 5-2. Average Annual Perc
District Five-Year Periods (1981



District


Florida tAll Districts)

District 1. West Florida

District 2. Apalach

District 3. North Central Florida


District 4. Northeast Florida

District 5. Withlacoochee

District 6. East Central Florida

District 7. Central Florida

District 8. Tampa

District 9. Southwest Florida

District 10. Treasure Coast

District 11. South Florida


I F!' IIl., L i!i' l, i li,, i .i I,.I 1 I I, I Ii !


\ \ ,li ,, ,i i, I, P i i, , I II IT il I li I i



entage Appreciation and Period Rankings by
-2000)


1981-85
(rank)


3.43

4.15 (3)

3.54 15)

3.47 t6)

6.16 I11

2.89 1(7

4.11 1(4

2.60 t8)

4.61 i2)

1.89 (11)

2.58 (91

2.23 I 10)


I *..i..
I 11.111,~ I


1986-90
(rank)


2.58

0.64 (111

0.57 1 12)

2.38 151

1.79I I19)

1.38 1101

2.30 616

1.80 181

2.02 17)

4.38 (11

3.44 13)

3.79 (21)


1991-95
(rank)


1.57

3.38 i(2

3.67 11)

2.41 (41

2.23 ti5

1.62 I17

1.01 19)

1.69 16)

1.41 181

0.44 11l)

0.15 (111

2.47 131


I .Ii,,. 1I 'I .1 1 .1,~i~'.. ,! ~1~ 1


1,1, ,. I". 1 1 I ,11,II .. I l h , l I .I,,, I I ..,.I ."
- ,I. 1,, .I I l i,,,, h .l, I ,I, [ I I,.. .,, ,,,,,. 1I



I I,, l ... I,, .11 1.. 1 I I I I...I.. I I ,.,.I ,
I' .11. I .. I I I I .. l ... II ., il l 1 .1 ...i : 11 I 1,, ,
, ..1 .. ..I I .. I I 1. I 1 l, ,1 ..lh. ..lh 1 I ,.I
I , I. .. I I ,.. I a 11 l,.,1 ,,, I . I I ,,,,,, l',h ,, I' ,.


11.,, I l,. ice appreciation rates in
S. .I II. ,iii I ive-year periods studied.
InhllIIIlli Inost areas experienced
i I, ,1 I i iI I growth and slow growth
in house prices
relative to the other
Florida MSAs.
Only the Sarasota-
Bradenton and
1996-00 Ocala MSAs were
(rank)
(rank) ranked in all five-

year periods among
-.67 the top 10 (of 20)

5.01 i31 and bottom 10,

4.5) I6) respectively.
House price
4.77 (5.
indices are reported
5.92 i1 for each of the 20

3.3J (11 MSAs, as well as the
state, all MSAs, and
-.-l3 (7i
all non-MSA areas
4.41 18) in Table 5-7.16

5.06 t2i Annual rates of

-.23 Ie9 appreciation from
1981 to 2000,
4.23 I9)
constructed from
4.8 (41- the indices listed in
Table 5-7, are listed
I .... I i, in Table 5-8 for all
S'"'........ MSAs in Florida.
I.,, Table 5-9 lists the
I.. ... I.. I .
.. ,,. ,.., co rrelatio n
I .. II e ..*** co efficient ts
'.. '....I "."' estimated using the
1 I. I. .I.. I
1 .. I 1... ... 2 0 y e a r
I'.... I'... I, appreciation rates in
. I ....I ..i Table 5-8. As with
I. .'..I ... the D district

estimates, a strong


,,, ll ,, II,, l i i,, l II I l,,i ,l" A : I l, I l ,,

1 \ 9I'l l9'll lll. 1I II II I 11 1 i 11 1 1 1 IN I .1 h



,i' q. i !.,li 1 Ni i ,I!., I,,! l il Ii lii -

F.II, 1 1ii,111 I I N IIII4
iI !, II I, I,! I !!,- I , 1 ,I l1 I l I II _I i I .


1 41- ,, I ,!,I Il i .! !, l, !li ,I, li.l I ,',


S,,II, I Ii, ii il Ille movements of house
i',I i I '. Ii III the central part of the
1i.ii, .iil ..L; Ihe following MSAs:
j I .... ii. i. aytona, Melbourne,
i-11 11,I,,. L Il.land and Tampa-St.
P. I. il ,, !,- -\AIliough the Ocala MSA is
I I... I ,I I ..! ig these M SAs the
i .... 11iii I Iouse price in Ocala
11., ii 1 I, I, nrly independent of the
I ,! I, iI iii,- ... ., Itions affecting the other


S, ,,,,, I ,1 ,1.. ,,i, ... I d 1 I I


I..... 1.1..... i ., ,les for the Gainesville M SA. In
S 11. I I.. i I. ,tly Clay, Nassau, and St. Johns


I II,, I ,, I ,,, hI. I ',, 1 1 ,,, ,I I., I I1,, h,,,, I, I I, I ,,I ,I 1







MSAs. In addition, house price
movements in the MSAs in the most
southern areas (i.e., Miami, Ft.
Lauderdale, and West Palm Beach) of the
state are highly correlated, as are the Ft.
Pierce, Naples, and Ft. Myers areas. Table
5-9 gives further evidence that, with
some exceptions, the state's housing
market can be broadly described in terms
of three general markets-north, central
and south.


5.5 County-Level Measures of

House Price Appreciation in

Florida

Estimates of house price appreciation
for the 1996 to 2000 period are reported
for all Florida counties, listed by district,
in Tables 5-10 and 5-11. Estimates are
reported for all counties having sufficient
transaction information. In some
districts, the small counties are grouped
to provide more reliable estimates.
During the 1996 to 2000 period,
annual house price appreciation rates
exceeded 6 percent in three counties
(areas): Monroe (7.09 percent), St. Johns
(6.82 percent) and the small counties of
District 2 (6.13 percent). In contrast,
five areas experienced average annual
appreciation rates of less than 3.25
percent: the small counties in District 7
(2.65 percent), Citrus (3.13 percent), St.
Lucie (3.16 percent), Hernando (3.18
percent), and Martin (3.19 percent).
Relative to other large urban counties,
Pinellas, Dade, and Hillsborough
experienced rapid increases in house
prices of 5.97, 5.49, and 5.33 percent
per year, respectively. Table 5-11 reports
the estimates of annual house price
appreciation for the state and county
areas from 1996 through 2000.


5.6 Forecasts of State- and

MSA-Level House Price

Changes

Changes in population, real income,
mortgage interest rates, housing starts,
and price changes in previous periods are
shown in this section to affect MSA
house price levels. The effects of these
selected explanatory variables on
inflation-adjusted house price
appreciation are displayed in Table 5-12.
Note the inflation-adjusted price
appreciation is calculated as:

inflation-adjusted appreciation =
[(l+apprecation rate) inflationtn rate)]-1.

The effects of the explanatory
variables on inflation-adjusted house
price appreciation is estimated using a
"fixed-effects" regression model that
incorporates the time-series, cross-
sectional, nature of the data such that

inflation-adjusted house price
appreciation = a +S b X+ e

where X denotes a vector of independent
economic and demographic variables, b
is the estimated regression coefficient, a
is an estimated vector of coefficients
corresponding to each MSA, and e is the
estimation error of the regression model.
The reported figures are the estimated
regression coefficients.17 T-statistics,
which measure the statistical significance
of the explanatory variables, are reported
in parentheses.
The first column of Table 5-12
contains results for the 1981 to 2000
time period using only the six largest
Florida MSAs: Ft. Lauderdale,
Jacksonville, Miami, Orlando, Tampa-St.
Petersburg, and West Palm Beach. This
sample contains 118 observations. The


The fixed-effects estimation procedure is equivalent to using ordinary least squares with (indicator) variables to
capture the effects of being located in a particular MSA. The model dummy assumes, effectively, that the effect of
the explanatory variables on house price appreciation is the same in all MSAs. Unexplained variation in apprecia
tion, presumably due to omitted explanatory variables, is not assumed to be constant across MSAs, and is captured
in intercept terms that vary across the MSAs. These MSA intercept terms are not reported here, but are available
upon request.








, I Iii. iI' ', 1 ,I' i i,, ... [ Ii, i, I i, ,l iI,, ,,l iI .,11 IL I .... l i., ;S .1 Ii 1 ;. kiq i. 1i
,I 1 ., , Ii Il,,I .,I I, is I 1 x I i .I I.,II ,1 ill i, l, i, I I .,i i, I II
Ill, I ll Ill I I-i I I [ I I I l I I I I Il I ,,, Ii II, III I lI IIIIIiI I N II I I


Table 5-3. Annual House Price Indices for Florida Districts


Non Dist. Dist. Dist. Dist. Dist. Dist. Dist. Dist. Dist. Dist. Dist.
MSA 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11


1.)000)
1.069
1.124
1.150)
1.198
1.230
1.230
1.245
1.242
1.252
1.243
1.258
1.293
1.345
1.413
1.475
1.564
1.631
1.704
1.790)
1.857


1.)r000)
1.0174
1.092
1.127
1.149
1.146
1.149
1.155
1.202
1.224
1.259
1.298
1.326
1.331
1.407
1.472
1.554
1.584
1.656
1.713
1.807


1.)r000)
0.993
1.020
1.096
1.145
1.093
1.175
1.251
1.188
1.255
1.257
1.267
1.286
1.337
1.383
1.458
1.507
1.575
1.653
1.749
1.839


1.r)000r
1.14 1
1.192
1.230)
1.298
1.343
1.361
1.399
1.456
1.488
1.479
1.483
1.497
1.549
1.588
1.649
1.720
1.793
1.869
2.023
2.165


1.000))
1.047
1.084
1.107
1.166
1.176
1.206
1.270
1.312
1.365
1.391
1.387
1.416
1.451
1.510)
1.564
1.615
1.682
1.771
1.854
1.977
2.050


1.)000 1.)000 1.0001 1.)000 1.))000) 1.)000))
1.061 1.066 1.073 1.100 1.077 1.084
1.120 1.087 1.077 1.129 1.)68 1.0)97
1.091 1.138 1.105 1.176 1.060 1.126
1.151 1.187 1.132 1.219 1.)71 1.138
1.149 1.219 1.138 1.246 1.071 1.150
1.146 1.242 1.161 1.289 1.112 1.180
1.203 1.269 1.165 1.322 1.145 1.205
1.196 1.297 1.197 1.342 1.190 1.280
1.231 1.338 1.234 1.369 1.277 1.326
1.242 1.359 1.232 1.379 1.328 1.353
1.218 1.349 1.237 1.359 1.328 1.335
1.215 1.347 1.248 .1.38 1.323 1.318
1.244 1.371 1.285 1.398 1.318 1.334
1.279 1.398 1.316 1.449 1.335 1.369
1.312 1.436 1.356 1.487 1.352 1.399
1.337 1.467 1.39) 1.531 1.377 1.433
1.381 1.508 1.431 1.578 1.417 1.475
1.420 1.579 1.499 1.673 1.475 1.548
1.498 1.663 1.571 1.778 1.567 1.639
1.568 8.778 1.634 1.919 1.678 1.749
n.3. n.3. n.3. n.3. n.3. n.3.


I1III _1111,111 11 11111111111 11111' II.
II I I. '.l I I',i I,i .1 1.1, I I, ,


S, I~ I. .Ii,,I I 'I 1 .1,1 .' i..'.

. 1,, 1 I I. I .1. I... I I I..... Ii. .1, ,I .11,


S ..I .. ., ",, , ,,, I I ... ,. .I I I1,,,. .,, < . I l si ,,. I l l d , 1 l ,. l, . l ,, ,,. .. ,,I ., I',, ,
[ J . ... i ',, ,. ... ,. I I1. 1. , . 1 I , -, ,, ,, I [ I n.. .. 1 ,, .I ,,,,,, . I ', , ,
I I ', ...1 1 1 I i l I , , . . I ". ... .,. .I, ,. I .I,, , . I i ,. i l l ', ". .i.. I I I, ,
I 1 h .; l .l i, I ll . l,.. lI . ,i. l l'1 .ll .. I I I .i,. i.'. l l.. 1 I ,II l. I 1h ll .l.. .,..., l, [ l e n, . I ... .. I ',,,. II ,.
li .. I ,I I I ... l I .l I I II ,I..II, I ..II,, II .I 1 1, 1 II,. I,.I I , I ... I I I ,.. ,. I l ll h ,.l, ,I ,
I', , I ,, ,,,e l' ,h ,, I1 I .I I 1 . 1 I I,.I I ', h, 1 I .. ... I I .I, ,.I [ 1 ... .. ..


h ,, !I. i*, ,,! ] i,,! ,! ,I i! II,, il, !, ,,IIl,
i! .I .l ..I I III II,.! I I, I Il.,! ,- lil i ,i
I I. 0 1.1;. 1 . .I II .. I l I. I I l. Isi l..Ii
Ill. . . .II -I_ I s. .II,4 sl i l N1 1. '4l 110 ..
' '" i III"1 I ,, ll.si 11 11.!! I . I .!I I s i 4

aI Is. pIl i .I.. i p .I .II. 1 1 1 .. 1
F i, l,- ,- % l i I I1 i I ll I IIs. I -I' I. s ,i I III.


il l\i! .I ill, 1 I I 1. .I1 1 Is.

Ii 1 1 III, !! 11 I II I .1 I i .. i 14, -

. .. Il1, !, I Il ,! i I I! ,,-, N !! !, I ll I I !I I

.. . .. ..II I I ", ",,_, N. 1 -1 1 11 N I N,, ilI


n.a. n.. n.a. n.3.


1.)000
1.0)66
1.091
1.101
1. 107
1.114
1.153
1.205
1.258
1.3)07
1.339
1.341
1.348
1.405
1.481
1.527
1.58')
1.619
1.694
1.790
1.944
n. 3.


i' l!,,! l,! l ,, I I ' I l i I !! I' I, ,'I I I l, lN ,, 1 11 1Il
I,,,,i, l,!!, \ l,, l, ,l Il,, !, ,,! III !, I l~! ,,- [1 ,!! i 1 I lI,


' 'I , ,. . . I d ,I 1, I ,II 1 1 . I I, I .I I I







coefficient signs are found to be consistent adjusted per capital income have a
with expectations and statistically significantly consistent positive effect on
significant. inflation-adjusted house prices. Increases
The second column of Table 5-12 in the level of mortgage interest rates and
contains the results for the 1981 to 2000 housing starts has a consistent negative
period using data for all 20 MSAs. This effect on appreciation. In addition,
sample contains 380 observations.18 house price changes are serially
Relative to the regression using just the correlated. These regression results are
six largest MSAs, the effects of the consistent with findings in the housing
economic variables retain their estimated research literature. The relative strength
signs and, generally, their magnitudes. It and stability of the estimated coefficients,
is noted that house price movements are along with the explanatory power of the
more sensitive to percentage changes in model, suggest that it can be used to
population and housing starts in larger project reasonable estimates of future
urban areas. This appears to be house prices.
reasonable because large percentage The historical regression analyses are
changes in population and starts are not used to forecast the average annual rates
easily achieved in the more populous of price appreciation for each MSA over
urban areas. the 2001 to 2010 period. For


Table 5-4. Annual House Price Appreciation (%) for Florida Districts
(1981-2000)


All All Non Dist. Dist. Dist.
FL MSA MSA 1 2 3

1981 7.25 7.38 4.70 6.93 7.41 -0.67
1982 2.42 2.37 3.54 5.16 1.63 2.64
1983 2.78 2.81 2.09 2.27 3.28 7.47
1984 2.71 2.58 5.36 4.18 1.94 4.49
1985 1.99 2.05 0.85 2.68 -0.28 -4.49
1986 1.89 1.86 2.57 0.02 0.26 7.43
1987 3.29 3.19 5.28 1.19 0.51 6.53
1988 3.02 3.01 3.33 -0.23 4.10 -5.07
1989 2.97 2.92 4.01 0.76 1.78 5.61
1990 1.74 1.73 1.92 -0.65 2.88 0.14
1991 -0.69 -0.72 -0.26 1.17 3.12 0.82
1992 0.00 -0.11 2.03 2.76 2.13 1.48
1993 2.19 2.17 2.53 4.02 0.38 4.02
1994 3.92 3.91 4.02 5.12 5.73 3.42
1995 2.45 2.39 3.59 4.34 4.59 5.39
1996 3.58 3.59 3.27 6.07 5.60 3.39
1997 2.47 2.38 4.15 4.26 1.95 4.55
1998 4.69 4.66 5.30 4.48 4.51 4.90
1999 5.44 5.48 4.67 5.05 3.43 5.83
2000 7.18 7.21 6.66 3.71 5.51 5.12
2001 5.89 6.01 3.67 n.a. n.a. n.a.
Note: 2001 values are preliminary.


Dist. Dist. Dist. Dist. Dist. Dist. Dist. Dist.
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

14.08 6.14 6.60 7.26 9.96 7.69 8.45 6.56
4.47 5.56 1.94 0.37 2.68 -0.86 1.15 2.39
3.17 -2.61 4.71 2.66 4.18 -0.69 2.69 0.87
5.60 5.45 4.28 2.43 3.66 1.04 0.98 0.54
3.40 -0.17 2.77 0.52 2.20 -0.03 1.06 0.70
1.34 -0.20 1.86 2.00 3.47 3.86 2.65 3.44
2.84 4.93 2.17 0.36 2.50 2.93 2.13 4.51
4.09 -0.59 2.17 2.75 1.57 3.99 6.16 4.40
2.19 2.90 3.18 3.09 1.97 7.26 3.60 3.93
-0.62 0.96 1.58 -0.13 0.73 4.04 2.11 2.47
0.26 -1.96 -0.74 0.40 -1.41 0.00 -1.35 0.10
0.96 -0.28 -0.17 0.85 0.64 -0.43 -1.29 0.56
3.46 2.44 1.78 2.96 2.23 -0.37 1.22 4.23
2.51 2.76 1.98 2.40 3.62 1.30 2.61 5.11
3.83 2.60 2.73 3.05 2.59 1.27 2.19 3.11
4.34 1.94 2.12 2.52 2.99 1.87 2.44 3.48
4.21 3.29 2.84 2.98 3.08 2.89 2.96 2.44
4.25 2.83 4.68 4.73 5.98 4.07 4.91 4.63
8.22 5.47 5.33 4.84 6.33 6.29 5.90 5.67
7.04 4.68 6.93 4.00 7.91 7.08 6.70 8.63
n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.


Taken together, the results of Table 5- comparison, the forecasts are reported
12 are very encouraging. Increases in the along with the average annual
number of individuals in their prime appreciation rates for the previous 10-
buying years and increases in inflation- year periods in Table 5-13. The

















Table 5-5. Correlation of Annual
(1981-2000)


All All Non
FL MSA MSA
Florida 1
All MSAs 1 1
Non-MlSA 0.75 0.74 1
Dist.- 1 0.46 0.46 0.4
Dist.-2 0.58 0.58 0.22
r 4 I


Ui CL .-.
Dist.-4
Dist.-5
Dist.-6
Dist.-7
Dist.-8
Dist.-9
Dist.- 10
Dist.-11


iJ. I
0.82.
0.58
0.89
0.72
0.93.
0.72
0.85
0.79


IJ.IJt, U.-&
0.829. 0.56
0.569. 0.79
0.88 0.7
0.72 0.569.
0.939. 0.69
0.72 0.569.
0.85 0.64
0.8 0.52


. . .! ,!, i, ,1.,1., ", ili I 1 I , I,,I I 1 ,, r , I
, ...In .1 I ,,,, II,, [- i /,, ,' il_,n -TB im
,,I '111 'sI i 111 iil1 E i' lli I '. i I n 1
EI H lIII I /llll lll7lll \/ A I VI


Tii .-;.,[lil' ii. I .ii .ition estim ates
.11. I1.1., ,I ,, II. i E'EE'R's underlying
I,,I,, i.I ,,I IIi, I 1 ii, ve economy ic
\ Ill l ii II. i III I ,sum option that


Appreciation Rates Between Districts



Dist. Dist. Dist. Dist. Dist. Dist. Dist. Dist. Dist. Dist. Dist.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11


0.2
0.14
0.63
0j.6

0.42
0.56
0.55
-0.03
0.24
0.14


-0.15
0.51
0.05


0.28
0.5
0.4
0.32
0. 79


1
-0.08
0.25
0.21
0.17
0.18
0.05
-0.02
0).03


1
0.62 1
0.7 i 0.8 1
0.66 0.66 0.569i. 1


"' i"' I,,, ,, ,1 ..


I b h;EE III,, U i i[_ 11i\ ,I i l, i ini!, I I T i,.
E'. 1 1 1 1 . i1 11 11. I .I \ .. I1. i


1 4, 1 ', I II, I II I I i! . l I 1,1,, , I I I, I I



,I ,I N I ,, l ,, I i l , III ,, 1 1 -

,.i i I Ii [ 11I i ,, li I I II i i 1 1 i' lili, .i i I,1
I. l .. N. lN. i i I l I , I



N I I_ I I Ii- I ,


I, I II l > l I I I i ll I I I I I I | il I III

I l< i I < I 1 1 i I I I . I I 1 1.1 NI 1 1

.I .1i 1 l,,! ,, I, l, !, I, I, , I!, l,,I b ,!,-
I I i p N I l i, I, s !1. 1 i l I i , 1 1, ,.

. 1 N I 1 1 .N 1. . ,4 i4 I. N I I- IN I
, ,I l !, ,- I, , i l ,I [ , | I I II N ,I i, ,



, 11. ,, , ,!,1 !!,,I, !! , I' l, .11 .1!,


' i. i i'-, ii., I I ii, 1 ,4.neral inflation
. ill I .. i. ii, ,, il, Hlie past 10-year


i. i I|. I.. ii. i, reciation rates
I, I II., I I, ,I Fil, Ii I l I ,orted in Table
'-1.; II, i ii l i iil I., Iln 3.28 percent
i "i i, II. N, ,. ili i III, projected real
I i, Iiii, ,I I,,I !!ill iiI,,III i urn state ide
iN ._.: i ,, ~. I ., ii [n general, the
iiLli. ii i,,,, iii i, ii i. ireforecastfor
il. II, i l. lili, III ll I, I Ihe state (e.g.,
FP I I C i -1.'4 I ii, ar; Ft. Walton
E;B I I i.U':'. ,, i ,i' I 1 ld Jacksonville,
4 I.': .:. I i \. .1.1 uI,. i MSAs that are
Ii., I, .. ..,, I.. i il l,iantially higher
I11i 1III 11 11 li, I, 1. i iles are M iam i
i- -1 '' .:. i. 1i I l iiiesville (3.68%
,, i ', I I \\ il1 i , , .ion of M iam i,
! ... i I 11 ii ,, i i 1., I|,i,,.l price increases
ii, I,,I,, 11 ii i III, ,. ,i iii rn portion of
Ii,. I II, I, -4 PF I G orda, Ft.
L1 ,II, I!I, ii lIFI Pi, I. Therelative
I1,l'.', ii.! i I iiii l '!! inm ong the six


I 1.,, _11111 1,I,







major MSAs are Miami (4.45% peryear); (2.58% per year). Communities with a
Jacksonville (4.13% per year); Orlando projected house price appreciation below
(3.49% per year); Tampa-St. Petersburg 2.90 percent have a negative projected
(3.39% per year); West Palm Beach real (inflation-adjusted) return.
(2.87% per year); and Ft. Lauderdale


Table 5-6. Average Annual Percentage Appreciation and Period Rankings By MSA
Five-Year Periods (1981-2000)

1981-85 1986-90 1991-95 1996-00
Metropolitan Statistical Area (rank) (rank) (rank) (rank)

Florida (All MSAs) 3.44 2.54 1.53 4.66

Pensacola MSA (Dist. 1) 4.20 (6) 0.09 (18) 2.98 (4) 5.03 (6)

Ft. Walton Beach MSA (Dist. 1) 4.67 (3) -0.04 (19) 3.89 (2) 4.46(11)

Panama City MSA (Dist. 1) 3.01 (11) 0.92 (17) 4.08 (1) 4.02(16)

Tallahassee MSA (Dist. 2) 2.81 (12) 2.07 (11) 2.71 (5) 3.67 (18)

Gainesville MSA (Dist. 3) n.a. n.a. n.a. 5.05 (5)

Jacksonville MSA (Dist. 4) 7.38 (1) 1.81 (13) 2.06 (7) 5.70 (2)

Ocala MSA (Dist. 5) 2.63 (14) 1.11 (16) 1.69 (10) 3.93 (17)

Daytona Beach MSA (Dist. 6) 3.35 (7) 2.88 (8) 1.34 (12) 4.12 (14)

Orlando MSA (Dist. 6) 4.66 (4) 2.35 (10) 1.12 (14) 4.80 (8)

Melbourne-Titusville MSA (Dist. 6) 3.05 (9) 1.20 (15) 0.89 (16) 3.29 (19)

Lakeland MSA (Dist. 7) 3.15 (8) 1.48 (14) 1.98 (9) 4.22 (13)

Tampa-St.Pete. MSA(Dist. 8) 4.76 (2) 1.90 (12) 1.41 (11) 5.33 (4)

Sarasota-Bradenton MSA (Dist. 8) 3.05 (9) 2.84 (9) 2.17 (6) 4.89 (7)

Punta Gorda MSA (Dist. 9) 0.58 (19) 4.83 (2) -0.98 (19) 4.47 (10)

Ft. Myers MSA (Dist. 9) 2.03 (17) 4.14 (3) 1.08 (15) 4.06 (15)

Naples MSA (Dist. 9) 4.51 (5) 5.90(1) 1.26 (13) 5.74 (1)

Ft. Pierce MSA(Distr. 10) 2.30 (15) 3.20 (7) -0.31 (18) 3.15(20)

West Palm Beach MSA(Dist. 10) 2.69 (13) 3.40 (5) 0.60 (17) 4.74 (9)

Ft. Laurderdale MSA(Dist. 11) 1.89 (18) 3.30 (6) 2.02 (8) 4.42(12)

Miami MSA(Dist. 11) 2.15 (16) 3.79 (4) 3.66 (3) 5.49 13)


Notes: Shaded areas denote top quartile ranking. Pensacola MSA (Escambia and Santa Rosa Cos.),
Ft. Walton Beach MSA (Okaloosa Co.); Panama City MSA (Bay County), Tallahassee MSA (Leon and
Gadsden Cos.), Gainesville MSA (Alachua Co.[adeq data not avail all periods]), Jacksonville MSA
(Clay, [adeq. data not avail, for Duval], Nassau, and St. Johns Cos.), Ocala MSA (Marion Co.), Daytona
Beach MSA (Flagler and Volusia Cos.), Orlando MSA (Lake, Orange, Osceola, and Seminole Cos.),
Melbourne-Titusville MSA (Brevard Co.), Lakeland MSA (Polk Co.), Tampa-St.Petersburg MSA
(Hernando, Hillsborough, Pasco, and Pinellas Cos.), Sarasota-Bradenton MSA (Manatee and Sarasota
Cos.), Punta Gorda MSA (Charlotte Co.), Ft. Myers-Cape Coral MSA (Lee Co.), Naples MSA (Collier
Co.), Ft. Pierce-Port St. Lucie MSA (Martin and St. Lucie Cos.), West Palm Beach-Boca Raton MSA
(Palm Beach Co.), Ft. Lauderdale MSA (Broward Co.), and Miami MSA (Dade Co.)










Table 5-7: Annual House Price Indices for Florida Metropolitan Statistical Areas


MSA MSA MSA MSA
All All Non 1 2 3 4
FL MSA MSA Pens Ft.W Pana Tall
1980 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000
1981 1.072 1.074 1.047 1.078 1.063 1.030 1.073
1982 1.098 1.099 1.084 1.124 1.130 1.052 1.113
1983 1.129 1.130 1.107 1.125 1.204 1.104 1.139
1984 1.160 1.159 1.166 1.169 1.222 1.194 1.147
1985 1.183 1.183 1.176 1.227 1.255 1.156 1.147
1986 1.205 1.205 1.206 1.216 1.230 1.214 1.142
1987 1.245 1.244 1.270 1.223 1.276 1.218 1.149
1988 1.282 1.281 1.312 1.209 1.283 1.225 1.201
1989 1.321 1.318 1.365 1.230 1.283 1.214 1.226
1990 1.343 1.341 1.391 1.232 1.250 1.208 1.269
1991 1.334 1.331 1.387 1.210 1.305 1.257 1.287
1992 1.334 1.330 1.416 1.246 1.337 1.288 1.323
1993 1.363 1.359 1.451 1.292 1.402 1.344 1.328
1994 1.417 1.412 1.510 1.359 1.491 1.393 1.385
1995 1.450 1.446 1.564 1.424 1.512 1.475 1.449
1996 1.503 1.498 1.615 1.509 1.631 1.541 1.534
1997 1.541 1.533 1.682 1.574 1.700 1.601 1.552
1998 1.613 1.605 1.771 1.663 1.733 1.684 1.604
1999 1.701 1.693 1.854 1.751 1.779 1.808 1.656
2000 1.823 1.815 1.977 1.821 1.879 1.794 1.735
2001 1.930 1.924 2.050 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.


MSA
5
Gain
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
1.503
1.556
1.629
1.716
1.831
n.a.


MSA MSA MSA
6 7 8
Jack Ocal Dayt
1.000 1.000 1.000
1.182 1.038 1.076
1.250 1.119 1.067
1.270 1.056 1.109
1.354 1.123 1.151
1.418 1.133 1.177
1.412 1.104 1.220
1.465 1.176 1.261
1.515 1.165 1.293
1.553 1.187 1.332
1.550 1.194 1.356
1.536 1.190 1.360
1.554 1.185 1.361
1.609 1.227 1.392
1.651 1.262 1.401
1.715 1.298 1.449
1.785 1.338 1.464
1.866 1.388 1.511
1.943 1.420 1.569
2.122 1.507 1.649
2.261 1.573 1.771
n.a. n.a. n.a.


Table 5-8: Annual House Price Appreciation (%) for Florida Metropolitan


All All
FL MSA
1981 7.25 7.38
1982 2.42 2.37
1983 2.78 2.81
1984 2.71 2.58
1985 1.99 2.05
1986 1.89 1.86
1987 3.29 3.19
1988 3.02 3.01
1989 2.97 2.92
1990 1.74 1.73
1991 -0.69 -0.72
1992 0.0 -0.11


I / 17 1



i itII ** 1. '. 1
1 i ':, '. :.* '1





11:11:11:1 1 I -.
.1:11:1 1 '' y 1


Non
MSA
4.70
3.54
2.09
5.36
0.85
2.57
5.28
3.33
4.01
1.92
-0.26
2.03






4 1,
,..


MSA
1
Pens
7.82
4.22
0.08
3.91
4.96
-0.88
0.59
-1.17
1.73
0.17
-1.78
2.98


MSA MSA
2 3
Ft.W Pana
6.27 3.01
6.29 2.11
6.60 4.99
1.52 8.13
2.65 -3.22
-1.95 5.07
3.69 0.30
0.57 0.61
-0.02 -0.97
-2.51 -0.43
4.33 4.02
2.49 2.50
-I 3.i -I 4





-1 7 1* .


4 ., s 1 ,. C, :, 1


MSA MSA MSA MSA MSA
4 5 6 7 8
Tall Gain Jack Ocal Dayt
7.26 n.a. 18.20 3.75 7.65
3.77 n.a. 5.78 7.83 -0.87
2.37 n.a. 1.61 -5.56 3.96
0.66 n.a. 6.55 6.25 3.72
-0.03 n.a. 4.77 0.91 2.30
-0.42 n.a. -0.42 -2.56 3.67
0.61 n.a. 3.76 6.56 3.32
4.57 n.a. 3.36 -0.93 2.52
2.02 n.a. 2.53 1.89 3.09
3.54 n.a. -0.18 0.58 1.80
1.42 n.a. -0.89 -0.30 0.26
2.78 n.a. 1.15 -0.44 0.12


4/.3 .. 3 (,7 u.,-I

* i., i 4 1('. 1 1 1

1 4C 4 7
I -.O r11 -I 1 1 iF,


1' 1 '*, I'.. *, I J1 11


I I id i "i i "i i "i i i id


.. C1. ., 1 4, 1 V. ', '1-., 4 -.i I1


,. .1,7 1 1 d


I 1..1. 11111 1.. .. I, ,,, I,,, h , .









(MSAs) (1980-2000)


MSA MSA MSA MSA MSA MSA MSA MSA MSA MSA MSA MSA
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Orla Melb Lake Tamp Sara Punt Ft.M Napl Ft.P WPB Ft.L Miam
1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000
1.069 1.045 1.076 1.106 1.067 1.045 1.102 1.217 1.108 1.081 1.032 1.098
1.100 1.071 1.084 1.136 1.086 1.056 1.080 1.169 1.131 1.093 1.079 1.101
1.163 1.097 1.129 1.187 1.107 1.021 1.081 1.259 1.168 1.114 1.088 1.107
1.219 1.128 1.143 1.232 1.142 1.021 1.101 1.199 1.091 1.128 1.094 1.110
1.255 1.162 1.166 1.259 1.161 1.028 1.101 1.222 1.112 1.140 1.098 1.109
1.269 1.183 1.187 1.305 1.188 1.063 1.143 1.291 1.143 1.171 1.139 1.141
1.301 1.186 1.193 1.338 1.216 1.106 1.173 1.354 1.180 1.195 1.188 1.186
1.335 1.200 1.226 1.358 1.250 1.132 1.224 1.382 1.244 1.271 1.230 1.244
1.378 1.236 1.262 1.379 1.300 1.240 1.300 1.533 1.283 1.307 1.268 1.297
1.409 1.233 1.254 1.383 1.335 1.299 1.348 1.624 1.302 1.346 1.291 1.335
1.404 1.202 1.266 1.358 1.344 1.266 1.366 1.596 1.293 1.315 1.282 1.354
1.387 1.230 1.268 1.367 1.351 1.228 1.375 1.615 1.255 1.300 1.295 1.346
1.419 1.233 1.306 1.394 1.398 1.240 1.374 1.625 1.245 1.320 1.345 1.417
1.449 1.263 1.341 1.446 1.441 1.254 1.382 1.696 1.268 1.357 1.381 1.548
1.489 1.288 1.383 1.482 1.486 1.236 1.422 1.727 1.281 1.386 1.426 1.594
1.528 1.308 1.427 1.525 1.531 1.280 1.434 1.764 1.287 1.419 1.460 1.670
1.573 1.339 1.468 1.571 1.587 1.295 1.488 1.828 1.335 1.461 1.484 1.721
1.657 1.379 1.54 1.666 1.677 1.349 1.536 1.948 1.367 1.535 1.546 1.808
1.750 1.442 1.631 1.776 1.762 1.431 1.624 2.093 1.419 1.634 1.627 1.923
1.881 1.514 1.701 1.920 1.886 1.536 1.733 2.280 1.495 1.746 1.767 2.081
n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.


Statistical Areas (MSAs) (1981-2000)

MSA MSA MSA MSA MSA MSA MSA
9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Orla Melb Lake Tamp Sara Punt Ft.M
6.86 4.49 7.63 10.56 6.72 4.48 10.19
2.91 2.51 0.67 2.78 1.75 0.04 -1.99
5.79 2.42 4.23 4.43 1.98 -3.31 0.06
4.8 2.80 1.19 3.85 3.11 0.06 1.90
2.92 3.05 2.02 2.20 1.67 0.61 0.00
1.17 1.76 1.77 3.60 2.37 3.46 3.80
2.52 0.29 0.50 2.54 2.34 4.06 2.62
2.6 1.16 2.80 1.51 2.77 2.35 4.37
3.19 3.02 2.97 1.53 3.97 9.52 6.23
2.25 -0.24 -0.64 0.31 2.75 4.76 3.68
-0.32 -2.54 0.92 -1.82 0.65 -2.52 1.32
-1.22 2.36 0.17 0.67 0.50 -3.02 0.70
2.27 0.20 3.00 1.94 3.49 0.98 -0.12
2.13 2.46 2.65 3.76 3.09 0.09 0.60
2.75 1.97 3.19 2.49 3.14 -1.41 2.89
2.6 1.57 3.18 2.93 3.00 3.54 0.81
2.96 2.37 2.88 2.98 3.66 1.21 3.77
5.36 3.01 4.85 6.06 5.65 4.16 3.23
5.62 4.54 5.93 6.59 5.11 6.03 5.75
7.48 4.98 4.27 8.10 7.04 7.39 6.74
n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.


MSA
16
Napl
21.67
-3.95
7.75
-4.80
1.91
5.65
4.91
2.11
10.88
5.93
-1.70
1.17
0.61
4.39
1.85
2.10
3.64
6.58
7.45
8.94
n.a.


MSA
17
Ft.P
10.84
2.01
3.28
-6.58
1.97
2.79
3.17
5.44
3.10
1.48
-0.66
-2.90
-0.86
1.90
0.99
0.47
3.73
2.39
3.83
5.34
n.a.


MSA MSA MSA
18 19 20
WPB Ft.L Miam
8.11 3.25 9.75
1.07 4.51 0.33
1.96 0.80 0.51
1.26 0.59 0.26
1.03 0.32 -0.09
2.71 3.74 2.89
2.05 4.30 3.97
6.38 3.59 4.9C
2.89 3.05 4.22
2.96 1.79 2.97
-2.31 -0.67 1.38
-1.17 0.99 -0.56
1.56 3.87 5.29
2.84 2.71 9.23
2.08 3.21 2.97
2.43 2.44 4.78
2.96 1.59 3.06
5.06 4.20 5.03
6.43 5.21 6.37
6.83 8.66 8.21
n.a. n.a. n.a.













Table 5-9. Correlation of Annual Appreciation Rates Between MSAs
(1981-2000)



MSA MSA MSA MSA MSA MSA MSA


2 3 4 5 6 7
Ft.W Pana Tall Gain Jack Ocal


All All
FL MSA
1
1 1
0.78 0.77
0.57 0.57
0.31 0.32
0.0 0.0
0.57 0.57
n.a. n.a.
0.76 0.76
0.39 0.38
0.78 0.78
0.87 0.87
0.74 0.74
0.79 0.79
0.92 0.92
0.91 0.91
0.62 0.62
0.65 0.65
0.68 0.68
0.65 0.66
0.89 0.89
0.7 0.7
0.79 0.79


1
0.01 1
n.a. n.a.
0.1 0.51
0.08 0.14
0.06 0.22
0.09 0.37
0.03 0.35
0.27 0.49
0.19 0.46
0.06 0.48
-0.33 0.21
-0.09 0.4
-0.19 0.44
-0.33 0.48
-0.04 0.55
-0.11 0.33
0.0 0.56


Flor
MSA
Non
Pens
Ft.W
Pana
Tall
Gain
Jack
Ocal
Dayt
Orla
Melb
Lake
Tamp
Sara
Punt
Ft.M.
Napl
Ft.P.
W.P.
Ft. L
Miam


Non 1
MSA Pens


1
0.09
0.27
0.27
0.06
0.28
0.37
0.35
0.09
-0.13
-0.04
0.19
0.43
0.27


1
0.12
0.36
n.a.
0.37
0.25
-0.01
0.27
0.17
0.36
0.33
0.13
-0.23
-0.23
0.04
0.16
0.01
0.09
0.25


III



















MSA MSA MSA MSA MSA MSA MSA MSA MSA MSA MSA MSA MSA

8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Dayt Orla Melb Lake Tamp Sara Punt Ft.M Napl Ft.P W.P. Ft.L Miam















1
0.81 1


1
0.82 1
0.78 0.84 1
0.32 0.41 0.68 1
0.59 0.59 0.75 0.66 1
0.69 0.67 0.67 0.55 0.8 1
0.64 0.58 0.57 0.48 0.66 0.8 1
0.74 0.79 0.87 0.66 0.77 0.7 0.75 1
0.38 0.57: 0.68 0.65 0.42 0.32 0.46 0.67 1
0.65 0.62 0.78 0.59 0.63 0.65 0.62 0.76 0.61


0.61
0.73
0.81
0.82
0.48
0.8
0.72
0.57:
0.76
0.49
0.53







Table 5-10: Average Annual Percentage Appreciation and Period Rankings
By County Five-Year Periods (1996-2000)

1996-2000 1996-2000


County
Florida
(All Counties)
Florida
(All MSAs)
Florida
(All non-MSA Counties)
Escambia Co.
(Dist. 1, Pensacola MSA)
Santa Rosa Co.
(Dist. 1, Pensacola MSA)
Okaloosa Co.
(Dist. 1, Ft. Walton Beach MSA)
Bay Co.
(Dist. 1, Panama City MSA)
District 1 Small Counties
(Dist. 1)
Leon Co.
(Dist. 2, Tallahassee MSA)
District 2 Small Counties
(Dist. 2)
Alachua Co.
(Dist. 3)
District 3 Small Counties
(Dist. 3)
Clay Co.
(Dist. 4, Jacksonville MSA)
(Duval Co.)
(Dist. 4, Jacksonville MSA)
St. Johns Co.
(Dist. 4, Jacksonville MSA)
District 4 Small Counties
(Dist. 4)
Citrus Co.
(Dist. 5)
Marion Co.
(Dist. 5, Ocala MSA)
District 5 Small Counties
(Dist. 5)
Volusia Co.
(Dist. 6, Daytona MSA)
Lake Co.
(Dist. 6, Orlando MSA)
Orange Co.
(Dist. 6, Orlando MSA)


(rank) County
Osceola Co.
4.67 (Dist. 6, Orlando MSA)
Seminole Co.
4.66 (Dist. 6, Orlando MSA)
Brevard Co.
4.81 (Dist. 6, Melbourne MSA)
Polk Co.
5.05 (Dist. 7, Lakeland MSA)
District 7 Small Counties
5.06 (Dist. 7)
Hernando Co.
4.46 (Dist. 8, Tampa-St.P. MSA)
Hillsborough Co.
4.02 (Dist. 8, Tampa-St.Pete. MSA)
Pasco Co.
6.13 (Dist. 8, Tampa-St.Pete. MSA)
Pinellas Co.
3.58 (Dist. 8, Tampa-St.Pete. MSA)
Manatee Co.
6.60 (Dist. 8, Sarasota MSA)
Sarasota Co.
5.05 (Dist. 8, Sarasota MSA)
Charlotte Co.
4.64 (Dist. 9, Punta Gorda MSA)
Lee Co.
4.26 (Dist. 9, Ft. Myers MSA)
Collier Co.
n.a. (Dist. 9, Naples MSA)
District 9 Small Counties
6.82 (Dist. 9.)
Indian River Co.
4.90 (Dist. 10)
Martin Co.
3.13 (Dist. 10, Ft. Pierce MSA)
St. Lucie Co.
3.93 (Dist. 10, Ft. Pierce MSA)
Palm Beach Co.
3.37 (Dist. 10, W. Palm Beach MSA)
Broward Co.
4.19 (Dist. 11, Ft. Lauderdale MSA)
Dade Co.
4.82 (Dist. 11, Miami MSA)
Monroe Co.
4.93 (Dist. 11)


Notes: Multi-county estimates may vary from MSA estimates due to small sample estimation error. Shaded areas
denote top quartile return. Flagler, and Duval Cos. not estimated due to insufficient data. District 1 small cos. are
Holmes, Walton, and Washington. District 2 small cos. are Calhoun, Franklin, Gadsden, Gulf, Jackson, Jefferson,
L I I and Wakulla. District 3 small cos. are Bradford, Columbia, Dixie, Gilchrist, Hamilton, Lafayette, Madison,
Suwannee, Taylor, and Union. District 4 small cos. are Baker and Putnam. District 5 small cos. are Levy and Sumter.
District 7 small cos. are De Soto, Hardee, Highlands, Okeechobee. District 9 small cos, are Glades and Hendry.


(rank)

3.79

4.93

3.29

4.22

2.69

3.18

5.33

4.01

5.97

4.98

4.88

4.47

4.06

5.74

3.88

5.46

3.19

3.16

4.74

4.42

5.49


7.09















Table 5-11: Annual House Price Appreciation (%) for Selected Counties
(1996 2000)


Okal
7.83
4.23
1.97
2.68
5.57


D7sm
0.87
3
4.52
1.46
3.6


D4sm
6.01
2.31
5.78
1.74
8.68


Bay D1sm
4.47 3.01
3.91 6.71
5.13 2.74
7.39 8.87
-0.8 9.34


Hern Hill
2.05 2.31
1.97 3.9
3.94 6.44
3.92 6.4
3.99 7.62


Citr Mari
-0.07 3.11
2.31 3.74
3.58 2.28
4.27 6.14
5.55 4.39


Year FL
1996 3.58
1997 2.47
1998 4.69
1999 5.44
2000 7.18


Year Semi
1996 1.37
1997 3.82
1998 5.66
1999 4.34
2000 9.44


County Key:
FL: Florida (All Counties)
Esca: Escambia (Dist.1)
Sant: Santa Rosa (Dist. 1)
Okal: Okaloosa (Dist. 1)
Bay: Bay (Dist. 1)
D1sm: District 1 Small Cos.
Leon: Leon (Dist. 2)
D2sm: District 2 Small Cos.
Alac: Alachua (Dist. 3)
D3sm: District 3 Small Cos.
Clay: Clay (Dist. 4)
Duva: Duval (Dist. 4)
St.J: St. Johns (Dist. 4)


Citr: Citrus (Dist. 5)
Mari: Marion (Dist. 5)
D5sm: District 5 Small Cos.
Volu: Volusia (Dist. 6)
Lake: Lake (Dist. 6)
Oran: Orange (Dist. 6)
Osce: Osceola (Dist. 6)
Semi: Seminole (Dist. 6)
Brev: Brevard (Dist. 6)
Polk: Polk (Dist. 7)
D7sm: District 7 Small Cos.
Hern: Hernando (Dist. 8)
Hill: Hillsborough (Dist. 8)
Pasc: Pasco (Dist. 8)


Pine: Pinellas (Dist. 8)
Mana: Manatee (Dist. 8)
Sara: Sarasota (Dist. 8)
Char: Charlotte (Dist. 9)
Lee: Lee (Dist. 9)
Coll: Collier (Dist. 9)
D9sm: District 9 Small Cos.
Indi: Indian River (Dist. 10)
Mart: Martin (Dist. 10)
St.L: St.Lucie (Dist. 10)
PBch: Palm Beach (Dist. 10)
Brow: Broward (Dist. 11)
Miam: Miami (Dist. 11)
Monr. Monroe (Dist. 11)


Leon D2sm


Alac D3sm


Esca
6.02
4.35
5.86
5.58
3.43


Brev
1.57
2.37
3.01
4.54
4.98


Duvl
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.


Lee
0.81
3.77
3.23
5.75
6.74


Sant
6.2
3.86
5.24
4.27
5.74


Polk
3.18
2.88
4.85
5.93
4.27


St.J
7.74
3.95
5.79
8.61
8


Coil
2.1
3.64
6.58
7.45
8.93:


D9sm Indi Mart
9.24 6.11 -0.64
0.07 0.91 4.24
1.98 7.2 3.03
10.29 3.26 5.1
-2.2 9.83 4.23


5.93
0.84
3.34
3.17
4.63


Pasc
2.99
0.59
4.46
5.38
6.62


D5sm
0.83
2.92
3.18
5.08
4.82


St.L
1.4
3.24
1.91
3.14


5.92
5.74
11.14
4.93
7.88


Pine
3.41
3.01
6.29
7.34
9.8


Volu
1.36
3.01
3.9
5.29
7.37


PB.
2.43
2.96
5.06
6.43


n.a.
3.49
4.71
5.36
6.65


Mana
4.65
3.48
5.17
5.61
6.01


Lake
2.34
4.87
4.24
4.79
7.85


Brow
2.44
1.59
4.2
5.21
8.66


2.39
5.87
5.2
6
3.73


Sara
2.15
3.85
5.88
4.84
7.65


Oran
3.43
2.25
5.62
6.4
6.93


Miam
4.78
3.06
5.03
6.37
8.21


Year
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000


Year
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000


Clay
2.29
3.93
2.38
8.25
4.47


Char
3.54
1.21
4.16
6.03
7.39


6.13 6.829:














Table 5-12: Explaining Past Changes in Real Single-Family House
Prices Using Economic and Demographic Variables (1981-2000)


Explanatory Variable

Pct. Annual Change in Population IA



Pct. Annual Change in Inflation-Adjus



Level of Nominal Mortgage Interest R



Housing Starts in Previous Year as P



House Price Appreciation in Previous




No. of Observations

Adjusted Model R-Squared


Six Largest
MSAs

0.826
(3.811"

0.338
(5.06)-

-0.006
(-7.15)-

-1.322
(-3.21 "

0.452
(6.97)



118.000

0.56:


All
MSAs

0.46:
(3.721"

0.335
(7.00)-

-0.006
(-9.53)-

-0.572
(-2.52 "

0.251
(5.58 )



380.000

0.360


III


[ 1 .. I .., .. , r I ....II I i... l | .. .... ." r I ..... .1.1 ..1 .. I .. i..i .1 ..I
"I .I I I .. I ', =, I. I In I. .. .,1 i,, ,. I, ,I .., II .. I .... .I, .I .... I . . I1.,. 1. 1 I. .11. I1 ., ..
1.~ ... I. I.l ,. .II . ..1.1 I. . 1 ,I.. ..I . I, I sI1,. I. .. .l I ....I .. I., . . ." 1." I.. .. I... 1.,
h .I ,, I,. ..I II,, i, .i 1 I r .. I .l ..,I .,h II, ,I II. .. ... ll 1 ,' 'I ,I ,' n I I, ,2 1,,I,, ,II ,I II,,
'I .. ,l i.I h I I In I . li , ,.p l el, I .l ..I l, ,I I n .. 1 i' l ,l, .I 11,1 .I,2 l,,, .I II, I

, .... |.1 I, I , : .ll ..l .... i ,h II,, 1... .. ,, ,. . .. .I.l, ,l I, ,1m i l, .I II I l I I, I lll..Il- .
.1 .. .|.... .' ' ''I' I lI 1..., ,i, 1.. I, I .I " ,ll .i ,,,,,,,, (.1i,.. ,1 ..., I ,, , l.h 1. .. .[..Il ,
I I,, II. I ., I .. II., I .. . l. II. I ,, I , I I I Ii ,. ...... i. I ., ..... II. .ii i , i i i, ,i i i,, ,ii ,i . i
i i . I. l l . .. .. .I.I h .iI .,, .. .. . i 'I. .g .. . . i .. i i .. ..... I. i, 1 i ..| 1 1 ,,, i ,I l
,lI. I .....l i l, ,i i h ...l, [.l, lh ,1 .1 .i ,, I . .. h l..11 1 I l .., ,l... ,l. ,l 1h i. I ,..I ,,, 11,.I l.. l.,
. .1. ,1 1, .. ..... 1 I ,, r I .. ,. ,II ,I .i q .... I I 1 .1j,, .. i, 1 ..... 11 1 i , .. .... ,i ,, r I .. , i 1.. .
I I.' 1 .1... i l,, i ,,, I.. .I .. iI, , l l i,, I ,I ,,, ,, ,,lI BI ,,i ..I .. ... i, .i















Table 5-13: Average Annual Percentage Appreciation and Period Rankings
Ten-Year Periods (1971-00) with Ten-Year Projection (2001-10)


Metropolitan Statistical Area
Florida (All MSAs)

Pensacola MSA (Dist. 1)

Ft. Walton Beach MSA(Dist. 1)

Panama City MSA (Dist. 1)

Tallahassee MSA (Dist. 2)

Gainesville MSA (Dist. 3)

Jacksonville MSA (Dist. 4)

Ocala MSA (Dist. 5)

Daytona Beach MSA (Dist. 6)

Orlando MSA (Dist. 6)

Melbourne-Titusville MSA (Dist. 6)

Lakeland MSA (Dist. 7)

Tampa-St.Pete. MSA (Dist. 8)

Sarasota-Bradenton MSA (Dist. 8)

Punta Gorda MSA (Dist. 9)

Ft. Myers MSA (Dist. 9)

Naples MSA (Dist. 9)

Ft. Pierce MSA (Distr. 10)

West Palm Beach MSA (Dist. 10)

Ft. Lauderdale MSA (Dist. 11)

Miami MSA (Dist. 11)


1971-80 1981-90 1991-00
(rank) (rank) (rank)
9.52 2.99 3.1

n.a. 2.14 (16) 4.01 (4)

n.a. 2.31 (15) 4.17 (2)

n.a. 1.96 (18) 4.05 (3)

n.a. 2.44(13) 3.19(10)


n.a.

8.34 (6)*

n.a.

n.a.

9.82 (3)


4.60 (2) 3.88 (5)

1.87(19) 2.81 (13)

3.12 (5) 2.73(14)

3.50 (3) 2.96 (12)


n.a. 2.13(17) 2.09(17)


n.a.

8.76 (5)

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.


2.32(14) 3.10(11)

3.33 (4) 3.37 (8)

2.94 (9) 3.53 (6)

2.70(11) 1.75(18)

3.09 (6) 2.57(16)

5.20(1) 3.50 (7)


n.a. 2.75 (10) 1.42 (19)

10.18(1) 3.04 (7) 2.67 (15)

9.89 (2) 2.59 (12) 3.22 (9)

9.73 (4) 2.97 (8) 4.57 (1)


Notes: Shaded areas denote top quartile ranking. *Data from previous report. Pensacola MSA
(Escambia and Santa Rosa Cos.), Ft. Walton Beach MSA (Okaloosa Co.); Panama City MSA (Bay
County), Tallahassee MSA (Leon and Gadsden Cos.), Gainesville MSA (Alachua Co.), Jacksonville
MSA (Clay Nassau, and St. Johns Cos. [adeq. data not avail, for Duval]), Ocala MSA (Marion Co.),
Daytona Beach MSA (Flagler and Volusia Cos.), Orlando MSA (Lake, Orange, Osceola, and Seminole
Cos.), Melbourne-Titusville MSA (Brevard Co.), Lakeland MSA (Polk Co.), Tampa-St.Petersburg MSA
(Hernando, Hillsborough, Pasco, and Pinellas Cos.), Sarasota-Bradenton MSA (Manatee and Sarasota
Cos.), Punta Gorda MSA (Charlotte Co.), Ft. Myers-Cape Coral MSA (Lee Co.), Naples MSA (Collier
Co.), Ft. Pierce-Port St. Lucie MSA (Martin and St. Lucie Cos.), West Palm Beach-Boca Raton MSA
(Palm Beach Co.), Ft. Lauderdale MSA (Broward Co.), and Miami MSA (Dade Co.). 2001-2010
forecast based on model estimates reported in Table 13 using projected economic and demographic data
from the Bureau of Economic and Business Research at the University of Florida.









Table 5-14: District, MSA and Counties Listed by
District Location (Northwest Florida to Southeast Florida)


District
District 1: West Florida
District 1: West Florida
District 1: West Florida
District 1: West Florida
District 1: West Florida
District 1: West Florida
District 1: West Florida
District 2: Apalachee
District 2: Apalachee
District 2: Apalachee
District 2: Apalachee
District 2: Apalachee
District 2: Apalachee
District 2: Apalachee
District 2: Apalachee
District 2: Apalachee
District 3: N. Central Florida
District 3: N. Central Florida
District 3: N. Central Florida
District 3: N. Central Florida
District 3: N. Central Florida
District 3: N. Central Florida
District 3: N. Central Florida
District 3: N. Central Florida
District 3: N. Central Florida
District 3: N. Central Florida
District 3: N. Central Florida
District 4: Northeast Florida
District 4: Northeast Florida
District 4: Northeast Florida
District 4: Northeast Florida
District 4: Northeast Florida
District 4: Northeast Florida
District 5: Withlacoochee
District 5: Withlacoochee
District 5: Withlacoochee
District 5: Withlacoochee
District 6: E. Central Florida
District 6: E. Central Florida
District 6: E. Central Florida
District 6: E. Central Florida
District 6: E. Central Florida
District 6: E. Central Florida
District 6: E. Central Florida
District 7: Central Florida
District 7: Central Florida
District 7: Central Florida
District 7: Central Florida
District 7: Central Florida
District 8: Tampa Bay
District 8: Tampa Bay
District 8: Tampa Bay
District 8: Tampa Bay
District 8: Tampa Bay
District 8: Tampa Bay
District 9: Southwest Florida
District 9: Southwest Florida
District 9: Southwest Florida
District 9: Southwest Florida
District 9: Southwest Florida
District 10: Treasure Coast
District 10: Treasure Coast
District 10: Treasure Coast
District 10: Treasure Coast
District 11: South Florida
District 11: South Florida
District 11: South Florida


MSA
Panama City
Pensacola
Pensacola
Ft. Walton Beach
Non-MSA county
Non-MSA county
Non-MSA county
Tallahassee
Tallahassee
Non-MSA county
Non-MSA county
Non-MSA county
Non-MSA county
Non-MSAcounty
Non-MSAcounty
Non-MSA county
Gainesville
Non-MSAcounty
Non-MSAcounty
Non-MSAcounty
Non-MSA county
Non-MSAcounty
Non-MSAcounty
Non-MSAcounty
Non-MSA county
Non-MSAcounty
Non-MSA county
Jacksonville
Jacksonville
Jacksonville
Jacksonville
Non-MSA county
Non-MSA county
Ocala
Non-MSA county
Non-MSA county
Non-MSAcounty
Melbourne
Daytona Beach
Daytona Beach
Orlando
Orlando
Orlando
Orlando
Lakeland
Non-MSA county
Non-MSA county
Non-MSA county
Non-MSA county
Tampa St. Petersburg
Tampa St. Petersburg
Tampa St. Petersburg
Tampa St. Petersburg
Sarasota Bradenton
Sarasota Bradenton
Punta Gorda
Naples
Ft. Myers
Non-MSA county
Non-MSA county
Ft. Pierce Port St. Lucie
Ft. Pierce Port St. Lucie
West Palm Beach
Non-MSA county
Ft. Lauderdale
Miami
Non-MSA county


County
Bay
Escambia
Santa Rosa
Okaloosa
Holmes
Walton
Washington
Gadsden
Leon
Calhoun
Franklin
Gulf
Jackson
Jefferson
Liberty
Wakulla
Alachua
Bradford
Columbia
Dixie
Gilchrist
Hamilton
Lafayette
Madison
Suwannee
Taylor
Union
Clay
Duval
Nassau
St. Johns
Baker
Putnam
Marion
Citrus
Levy
Sumter
Brevard
Flagler
Volusia
Lake
Orange
Osceola
Seminole
Polk
De Soto
Hardee
Highlands
Okeechobee
Hernando
Hillsborough
Pasco
Pinellas
Manatee
Sarasota
Charlotte
Collier
Lee
Glades
Hendry
Martin
St. Lucie
Palm Beach
Indian River
Broward
Dade
Monroe


111







6. Conclusion


Florida's 67 counties include 34 urban
counties and the 33 rural counties. The
urban counties can also be divided into
those that are a part of the six major
metropolitan areas and fourteen other
metropolitan areas. Dividing the
counties in this way is useful as a means
to understand Florida's housing. There
are also a number of differences in
housing characteristics between coastal
and non-coastal counties. These housing
differences reflect the differences in the
characteristics of the population in
different areas of the state. The
population of the state is growing, but
not uniformly. Different areas of the state
are also characterized by differences in
the distribution of households by age,
income, race, ethnicity, and county of
origin.
Single-family housing units dominate
the state, but condominiums are an
important source of housing in some
coastal counties and mobile homes play
a key role in rural counties in the interior
of the state. Relative to other areas of
the country, housing prices in Florida are
low. Appreciation rates for single family
housing differ across the state but have
increased in recent years in most areas.
Indices of affordability show that on
average the affordability of housing has
improved in the state in recent years.
However, an affordability index masks
the problems that households with
incomes below the median income have
in obtaining suitable housing without
paying more than 30 percent of income
toward housing costs.


It is difficult to derive a single number
of housing need, and the 30 percent of
income standard may not be an
appropriate criteria to define
affordability. However, even it 40
percent or 50 percent are used as the
standard, it is clear that there is a
substantial need in Florida. The
affordability calculations also indicate
that the most severe needs are for
households with incomes below 30
percent of median income. This is a
group that is difficult to reach with state
programs, but one that becomes even
more vulnerable with changes in the
federal public housing program.
While housing affordability is a
problem in Florida, substandard housing
is less pervasive. In part, this is a reflection
of a relatively young housing stock in
Florida that has been built in response
to the recent rapid growth of the state.
There are, however, areas of older
housing stock in the state that are in need
of rehabilitation and the aging of the
existing housing stock will lead to
additional needs for rehabilitation in the
coming years.





























































Shimberg Center for Affordable Housing
University of Florida
Post Office Box 115703
Gainesville, Florida 32611-5703
1-800-259-5705




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