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The State of Floridas Housing, 2000 presented by William ODell, Manager Florida Housing Database and Marc T. Smith, Ph.D., Associate DirectorShimberg Center for Affordable Housing The Complete Report Shimberg Center for Affordable Housing M. E. Rinker, Sr. School of Building Construction College of Design, Construction and PlanningPartial funding provided by the Florida Association of Realtors.

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The State of FloridasHousing, 2000 ContentsPage1.0 Introduction.............................................................................................2 2.0 Floridas Housing Demand........................................................................2 2.1 Introduction.............................................................................................2 2.2 Changing Character of Households..........................................................3 2.3 State Summary..........................................................................................4 2.4 Metropolitan Area and County Comparisons............................................6 2.5 Locational Trends......................................................................................8 2.6 Summary..................................................................................................8 3.0 Floridas Housing Supply..........................................................................9 3.1 Data Description......................................................................................9 3.2 Single-Family Housing............................................................................10 3.3 Condominiums.......................................................................................17 3.4 Multifamily Housing..............................................................................30 3.5 Impact of Housing on the Florida Economy...........................................31 3.6 Summary................................................................................................31 4.0 Housing Prices and Affordability............................................................32 4.1 Introduction...........................................................................................32 4.2 Housing Appreciation.............................................................................32 4.3 Housing Affordability.............................................................................33 5.0 Conclusion.............................................................................................34Exhibits2.1 State Summary Florida Housing Demand...........................................4-5 2.2 State of Florida Population and Household Projections.............................6 2.3 State of Florida Households by Age 1998...............................................6 2.4 State of Florida Households by Size 1998...............................................7 2.5 State of Florida Households by Income 1998.........................................9 3.1 Year Structure Built Florida...................................................................10 3.2 Single-Family Housing Stock.............................................................12-15 3.3 Condominium Housing Stock...........................................................18-21 3.4 Multi-Family Housing Stock with Two to Nine Units in Complex....22-25 3.5 Multi-Family Housing Stock with Ten or more Units in Complex.....26-29 4.1 Comparison of Housing Price Index in Florida and Consumer Price Index, 1980-2000.........................................................33 1The State of Floridas Housing, 2000 The State of Floridas Housing, 2000

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The State of FloridasHousing, 2000 population of the Baby Bust generation which is now moving into the prime household forming years. Although the numbers of new households forming will be lower than in earlier periods, The State of the Nations Housing 2000 (Harvard University Joint Center for Housing Studies, page 10) projects that household formations will occur through the next decade at a rate of just under 1.2 million households per year, only slightly less than the annual increase in the last decade. In part, this prediction reflects the Baby Boom echo generation (children of the Baby Boom) reaching household forming years. Immigration and the growth in minority households are also factors in household growth. The characteristics of households will change over the period to 2010, as the Baby Boom population matures. Nationally, the strongest household growth will be in the 45-54 and 55-64 age groups. The number of households aged 35-44 will drop, while the 25-34 age group will see an increase in households as the Baby Boom echo population ages. The aging of the Baby Boom population also will result in more empty nest households. How do these national projections compare to Florida? To examine the demand for housing in the state of Florida and its counties, a methodology was developed that combines 1990 U.S. Census data on population and household characteristics, with county level population estimates and projections developed by the University of Floridas Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR).2.2 Changing Character of HouseholdsThe fundamental unit of analysis in housing markets is households, as households are virtually the same thing as occupied housing units. When looking at households and household formation rates, we are actually looking at housing demand. We project that by 2010 there will be a little over 7 million households in Florida. Starting in 2000 and projecting out to 2010, we see a need for approximately 1 million housing units in order to meet the demographic demand. Looking at the characteristics of the households will give a clue about the type of housing that will be needed. Consider, first, the age of the households. We watch the under-35 age group since it represents those people that are just entering the home buying market; they make up a large portion of the first-time homebuyers. Recently, this segment of the population has been comprised of what some people refer to as the Baby Bust group because it is relatively small compared to its predecessor, the Baby Boom group, and it represents the aging of the babies born during a period of reduced birth rates. However, coming on the heels of the Baby Bust is the Baby Boom Echo, which is a large population group that is just beginning to enter the prime household formation age range. We also watch the households in the over-65 age group. In 1998 about 30 percent of the households in Florida were in this grouping. Projections for 2000 show the beginning of the anticipated increase in numbers in the under-35 group as well as the continued growth of the over-65 age groups. We also look at household income because of its obvious impact on housing demand. Our numbers are based on constant 1990 dollars but we can adjust to current dollars by multiplying by about 1.5. We find that the largest household income group lies in the $10,000-$20,000 category. Adjusting to 1 Partial funding for the State of Floridas Housing 2000 was provided by the Florida Association of Realtors1. Introduction1Florida is a state of contrasts, and those contrasts are no where more apparent than in housing. The population of the state is growing, creating a demand for additional housing, yet that growth is not distributed uniformly across the state. In addition, growth is not distributed evenly across age categories, and the age structure of the population has implications for the type of housing needed. A majority of households are homeowners, but rental housing is needed to meet the needs of young and lower income households. It is a state in which single-family housing units dominate, but condominiums are an important source of housing in some coastal counties and mobile homes play a key role in rural counties in the interior of the state. Housing prices have been increasing in the state, but not as much as might be expected. Affordability indices indicate that housing in the state is affordable, but the indices mask affordability problems for those in lower income categories. Finally, it is a state in which much housing has been built in recent years but the aging of portions of the stock require attention to the need for rehabilitation. This study is an unprecedented assemblage of facts about how Floridians are housed. The data and descriptions included in the report bring into focus panoramas of the stock of housing available to Floridians, of their need and demand for housing, of housing transactions and prices in Florida, and of the ability of Floridians to afford housing. When any grand vista becomes clearer, it brings additional perspectives and insights to the viewer. Such is the expectation with this study. It will enable thoughtful viewers to understand anew the diversity, the needs, the public policy concerns, and the opportunities of Floridas many housing markets. The pages that follow introduce the variety of information assembled. The data highlight the tremendous diversity in housing characteristics across the state, particularly between the 34 urban counties and the 33 rural counties, as well as between coastal and non-coastal counties. Additional data show the projected growth in Floridas population, and in the demand for housing units. The picture revealed is of continued growth at a strong pace through the year 2010. The data also show that, relative to other areas of the country, housing prices in Florida are low. However, this is far from universal. Moreover, Floridas advantage in house prices often tends to be offset by correspondingly low income levels, resulting in housing affordability problems for a substantial portion of the population of the state. This document first discusses demographic patterns in the state and the need for housing. Second, it details characteristics of the housing stock in the state. Third, it discusses the movement in house prices and the rate of appreciation in housing. Finally, it discusses issues in the affordability of housing in the state.2. Floridas Housing Demand2.1 IntroductionThere have been predictions in the past that the rate of household growth would decline substantially through the year 2010, resulting in declining house prices and decreased housing starts in many parts of the country. These predictions are based on the widely discussed aging of the Baby Boom population, combined with the smaller3 2

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The State of FloridasHousing, 2000 Exhibit 2.2, is almost 10 percent of the projected national increase over the 2000 to 2010 time period. Exhibit 2.3 displays the distribution of households among the various age categories in 2000. Note that in 2000, the 45-54 and 55-64 age groups contained approximately 2 million households, or about 32 percent of Floridas total. The largest growth in households over the 2000-2010 time period will occur in these two age groups, reflecting the aging of the Baby Boom population over the projection period. In fact, an increase of about 800,000 households is expected in the 45-64 age group. This surge will increase the percentage of all Florida households in this age range from 32 percent in 2000 to over 38 percent in 2010. In addition, the continuing influx of retirees into the state, as well as the aging of the existing population, is expected to result in over 345,000 more households in the over65 age category. However, because this age group encompasses those born in the Depression years, when births were significantly lower than before or after that period, this 345,000 increase will only be sufficient to maintain the over65 age groups percentage of total households at its 2000 level (28.6 percent in 2000, 28.8 percent in 2010). Florida is predominately a home ownership state. For the state as a whole, the home ownership rate was estimated by the authors, based on 1990 homeownership rates by age, to be 68.8 percent in 2000, and is projected to increase to 70 percent by the year 2010. Nationally, the home ownership rate was 66.8 percent in 1999.2 Home ownership rates, as expected, increase with the age of householder and with household income. For householders aged 15-24, the home ownership rate is 19.5 percent in 2000. The rate is 45.2 percent for householders aged 25-34. In the older age categories, home ownership dominates renting, as the home ownership rate is 81.9 percent in the 5564 age group, 84.8 percent in the 65-74 age group, and 79.0 percent in the 75 and over age group. 2 Source is The State of the Nations Housing, 2000, page 2. Owners Renters 2000 2005 2010 1990 1998 2000 2005 2010 --------------4,300,2774,739,7275,179,3771,682,7091,897,0091,953,0492,084,7632,212,365 56,87563,84568,656208,013226,527235,471264,620285,220 404,874406,518435,559536,939502,868491,119491,418526,132 809,676782,303724,722349,173432,401448,196432,629399,858 858,1431,003,4421,085,102188,894274,778297,943347,617375,386 708,574908,6051,117,148131,529147,291156,256198,532243,126 745,249771,269902,753127,662133,727133,300137,491159,648 716,886803,745845,437140,499179,417190,764212,456222,995 483,486537,970593,278386,637440,853451,975482,105511,690 746,038827,987917,807424,046482,656494,901524,225553,135 755,020833,965920,651342,719388,414397,505418,004438,559 657,776722,813789,533218,275249,850256,209269,359282,072 509,764558,415605,477119,198138,277142,218149,931157,236 362,907398,516430,58861,73272,73075,08879,30483,065 334,406368,665397,76342,21850,96952,88156,41659,262 240,026266,322288,34022,27927,15928,25530,38432,049 95,007105,820115,1187,4079,2129,61710,44811,097 42,82347,47451,4132,9043,6853,8594,1494,375 93,807103,953112,7855,4296,8777,2207,9848,607 934,2031,032,5581,133,932536,160616,737632,767674,370715,300 1,775,6381,998,2882,244,649490,422561,476577,290618,232659,159 690,525760,261821,889263,267299,658307,362323,257338,236 557,472593,184617,936188,194215,265220,410228,395235,594 237,269252,101261,79293,068106,433108,948112,233115,046 79,84985,42189,27036,19141,76042,81844,30145,406 46,13750,15753,22525,54229,34930,16231,39832,354current dollars indicates that the largest household income group today ranges up to about $30,000. So, while we have had boom markets and we know how healthy the housing markets have been, we continue to have in Florida a substantial segment of the population that is in the lower income categories. We need to continue to think about how we can provide housing for these households. An important characteristic of households is their housing tenure: owner households and renter households. Ownership rates are higher in the older age groups and, of course, in the higher income groups. Overall, homeownership stands at about 70 percent in Florida. This percentage is slightly above the national average. Renter households are dominated by the younger age groups and by the lower income groups. The tenure characteristic indicates that while we promote homeownership, we also need to focus house design, location and amenities on the younger, renter households as that segment grows over the next decade. Household size is another important factor that must be considered when looking at the housing of the future. Through the mid-1980s there was a decline in average household size. Historically, we thought of a household as comprising four persons (i.e., two adults and two children). This average has dropped and leveled off just below three persons. Our 1998 data show that the two-person household was the dominant category in Florida. This finding is not surprising given Floridas large retired population and the younger population coming into the state.2.3 State SummaryA state summary and a summary of several key indicators are found in Exhibits 2.1 through 2.5. For the state, the total number of households is shown in Exhibit 2.1 and is projected to increase by 1,138,416 households, or 18 percent, between 2000 and 2010. This increase from 6,253,326 to 7,391,742 households, depicted graphically in Total 1990 1998 2000 2005 2010 1990 1998 Total Population12,936,08615,000,47515,524,50016,773,40017,942,300-Institutional Population141,675170,359187,031194,872200,429-Households5,134,8696,019,7076,253,3266,824,4907,391,7423,452,1604,122,698 Householders by Age 15-24258,204281,298292,346328,465353,87650,19154,771 25-34976,502916,878895,993897,936961,691439,563414,010 35-44977,174 1,213,2391,257,8721,214,9321,124,580628,001780,838 45-54725,561 1,065,2651,156,0861,351,0591,460,488536,667790,487 55-64718,464812,808864,830 1,107,1371,360,274586,935665,517 65-74834,554880,598878,549908,760 1,062,401706,892746,871 75+644,410849,621907,6501,016,2011,068,432503,911670,204 Households by Income 0-10k 775,560903,432935,4611,020,0751,104,968388,923462,579 10-20k 1,032,3711,198,1141,240,9391,352,2121,470,942608,325715,458 20-30k 965,5191,113,8111,152,5251,251,9691,359,210622,800725,397 30-40k 760,313881,787913,985992,1721,071,605542,038631,937 40-50k 536,356627,481651,982708,346762,713417,158489,204 50-60k 353,667419,897437,995477,820513,653291,935347,167 60-75k 306,795370,058387,287425,081457,025264,577319,089 75-100k 209,795255,602268,281296,706320,389187,516228,443 100-125k 81,93399,775104,624116,268126,21574,52690,563 125-150k 36,48244,43546,68251,62355,78833,57840,750 150k+ 79,56996,259101,027111,937121,39274,14089,382 Households by Size 1 person1,300,0641,512,9781,566,9701,706,9281,849,232763,904896,241 2 persons1,935,1872,260,1932,352,9282,616,5202,903,8081,444,7651,698,717 3 persons818,060960,147997,8871,083,5181,160,125554,793660,489 4 persons637,903751,109777,882821,579853,530449,709535,844 5 persons283,803334,336346,217364,334376,838190,735227,903 6 persons100,445118,324122,667129,722134,67664,25476,564 7+ persons62,89873,46876,29981,55585,57937,35644,119Exhibit 2.1 Florida Housing Demand5 4

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The State of FloridasHousing, 2000 J J J J J J J1 person2 persons3 persons4 persons5 persons6 persons7+ persons0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Households J PercentHouseholds PercentExhibit 2.4 State of Florida Households by Size 1998County. In addition to Gilchrist, counties with ownership rates equal to or above 80 percent are predominately other non-metropolitan counties including Baker, Calhoun, Citrus, Dixie, Franklin, Holmes, Lafayette, Levy, Liberty, Putnam, Sumter, Suwanee, Wakulla, Walton, and Washington. Three metropolitan counties, in addition to Charlotte, also have home ownership rates equal to or above 80 percent: Hernando, Nassau, and Pasco. Hernando and Pasco Counties are in the Tampa Bay metropolitan area, while Nassau County is in the Jacksonville MSA.The large rental stock in Alachua County is not surprising given the presence of the University of Florida. The rental percentage is high in MiamiDade County (Miami metropolitan area), a major urban county, and Leon County (Tallahassee metropolitan area), which is the seat of state government and the location of Florida State University and Florida A & M University. High home ownership rates in rural counties are the result of lower turnover, lower population growth rates, the relatively older age distribution of the population, and the relatively low housing prices in these counties. Of the 67 counties in Florida, 39 have less than 25 percent of their housing stock in rental usage. With a national rate of owner occupancy of just about 67 percent, most counties in Florida are considerably above the national average. Examination of the number of householders aged 45-64 in 2000 reveals little variation from the statewide percentage. The low in metropolitan counties is in Alachua County, with 24.8 percent of householders, the highest metropolitan county is Nassau at 39.1 percent, and the highest nonmetropolitan county is Franklin County at 42.2 percent. Following the state trend, by 2010 all counties are projected to experience considerable growth in the number of householders in the 45-64 age range. The growth in the 45-64 age category is due primarily to the aging of the Baby Boom population. However, it masks differences across counties in age distributions. A number of counties are very attractive to retirement populations and therefore have large percentages of their householders in the over 65 age group. These counties include Charlotte, Citrus, Flagler, Hernando, Highlands, Indian River, Lake, Martin, Pasco, and Sarasota. Other counties, particularly Alachua and Leon, with the presence of large universities, attract a younger average population. Income patterns, not surprisingly, follow the urban and rural characteristics of the state. Examination of the percentage of households in 2000 with incomes below $20,000 (1990 dollars) reveals that several counties have 50 percent or more of their households below that threshold. These counties are all nonmetropolitan and include Calhoun, Dixie, Franklin, Hamilton, Holmes, Jackson, Levy, Madison, Putnam, Sumter, Suwanee, and Washington. Among metropolitan areas, the largest percentage of households with incomes below $20,000 is found in Gainesville, with 46 percent of households below that level. Gainesvilles numbers clearly reflect a high concentration of student J J J J J 19901998200020052010 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000 8,000,000 0 2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000 10,000,000 12,000,000 14,000,000 16,000,000 18,000,000 All Households Elder Households J PopulationPopulation Households75 and overExhibit 2.2 State of Florida Population and Household Projections 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+Exhibit 2.3 State of Florida Householders by Age 199814% 5% 15% 19% 18% 14% 15%In 2000, 37.6 percent of all households have two people, and that percentage is projected to increase to 39.3 percent by 2010. The second highest percentage of households by size is oneperson households, which constitute about 25 percent of all households in both 2000 and (projected) 2010. The complete distribution of households by size in 1998 is displayed graphically in Exhibit 2.4.Household income distributions are calculated holding income levels constant in 1990 dollars. This technique removes the effects of inflation from the income projections and facilitates comparisons across time. In 2000, 43.5 percent of Florida households have incomes between $20,000 and $50,000 in 1990 dollars (see Exhibit 2.5). Using the rough rule of thumb that an affordable house price equals about two and one-half times household income, this income level equates to affordable house prices of between $50,000 and $125,000. Assuming a three percent annual inflation rate since 1990, this price range would be $67,2000 to $168,000 in 2000 dollars. Florida home ownership rates range from 51.7 percent, for households with income under $10,000, to 93 percent, for households with incomes of over $150,000.2.4 MSA and County ComparisonsExamination of age distributions, home ownership rates, and median household incomes for metropolitan areas3 and individual counties reveals wide variation across the state. These differences reflect the mix of urban and rural counties in the state as well as the dominance of retirement populations in several coastal counties. Differences in the nature and timing of growth, and the presence of major research universities in two counties, also are factors. Metropolitan area comparisons show that ownership rates range from a low of about 55 percent in the Gainesville (Alachua County and the University of Florida) and Miami metropolitan areas to a high of 79 percent in Punta Gorda (Charlotte County). Home ownership rates are higher in several of the nonmetropolitan counties: 82 percent in the Central Counties; 80 percent in the Northwest Counties; and 79 percent in the Northeast Counties. Among individual counties, the highest home ownership rate is 86 percent in Gilchrist 3 MSA refers to Metropolitan Statistical Area, a Bureau of Census term for larger American cities (population of 50,000 or more) defined, in Florida and most states, as one or more whole counties. In Florida 34 counties comprise 20 MSAs we refer to these 34 as metropolitan counties. In this report we also aggregate the remaining 33 non-metro counties into four non-metropolitan areas: Northwest, Northeast, Central and South.6 7

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The State of FloridasHousing, 2000 growth in households over age 45 also creates a demand for housing units that meets the needs of these older households that have, on average, higher incomes and fewer or no children living at home. Counties that are projected to be locations experiencing the most rapid growth are coastal and metropolitan areas.3. Floridas Housing Supply3.1 Data DescriptionAn understanding of the current stock of housing by county, by type, and by price range is a prerequisite to understanding the dynamics of Floridas housing markets. However, the paucity of accessible housing information has long been a concern in both academic and business circles. In the past, the only comprehensive, county-level data on housing in Florida were from the U.S. Census. But, the Census data quickly become dated because the Census is only conducted once a decade.4 The Census also is subject to inaccuracies in evaluating housing unit characteristics because it relies on the evaluation of the occupants for estimates of numerous variables such as property value and age. This section opens up a vast new source of comprehensive data for characterizing and analyzing the housing stock of Florida. We start with a foundation of Department of Revenue (DOR) data obtained from the 67 county property appraisers. This database contains information on every parcel of land and every structure in Florida. Thus, it contains immense detail on Floridas housing markets, including: parcel identification; land use code (vacant residential, single-family, condominium, etc.); total assessed value; assessed land value; year in which structure was built; square footage of the structure; parcel size; date and price of the two most recent sales; ad valorem tax jurisdiction; homestead exemption; and location of the property by section, township, and range. Although gaps and limitations still exist in these DOR data sets, they nevertheless provide information on Floridas housing stock that is not otherwise available. Floridas housing stock includes singlefamily units, multifamily units, and mobile or manufactured units. Although all three types of housing units are represented, the housing inventory is dominated by the single-family home. About 60 percent of the states housing stock is located in six major metropolitan areas: Fort Lauderdale, Jacksonville, Miami, Orlando, Tampa-St. Petersburg, and West Palm Beach-Boca Raton. Fort Lauderdale and Miami, because of their density, also have the distinction of having the most multifamily housing of any other area in the state. Although not a type of structure, condominium housing is an important housing category in some areas of the state. Seventy-eight percent of all condominium housing in the state is located in seven counties. Broward, Miami-Dade, and Palm Beach 4 In the National Association of Realtors (NAR) Home Sales, the median sale price of existing single-family homes, condos, and co-ops sold in each quarter are reported for the nine largest metropolitan areas in Florida. In addition, the Florida Association of Realtors (FAR) produces the Florida Home Sales Report which contains information on monthly sales volume and median sale prices for the 20 major metropolitan areas. While valuable, the NAR and FAR reports do not contain information on characteristics other than sale price and volume, and in addition are based only on MLS sales. Moreover, numerous counties are excluded.households. The lowest concentration of households with incomes below $20,000 is in the Naples MSA (Collier County), with only 26 percent of households below $20,000 in income (1990 dollars). Other counties with low percentages of households with incomes below $20,000 are Clay (Jacksonville MSA), Martin (Ft. Pierce-Port St. Lucie MSA), Palm Beach (West Palm BeachBoca Raton MSA) and Seminole (Orlando MSA). Across metropolitan areas, the largest projected increase in households is in the Naples MSA (Collier County), with a projected percentage increase of 32 percent between 2000 and 2010. Among individual counties, the largest projected increase is in Flagler County (Daytona Beach MSA), where the number of households is projected to increase by 43 percent by 2010. Other counties projected to experience a 30 percent or more increase in house-holds include Collier (Naples MSA), Gilchrist, Liberty, Osceola (Orlando MSA), Santa Rosa (Pensacola MSA), St. Johns (Jacksonville MSA), Sumter, Wakulla and Walton. Of course, several of these counties start from low bases in the number of households, so the large percentage increases may not actually represent large numbers of households. Counties with percentage household increases below 10 percent include Hardee, Pinellas (TampaSt. Petersburg-Clearwater MSA), and Taylor. These latter counties are either rural counties or large counties reaching build-out. The largest numbers of households, in absolute terms, will be added in several already large, urban counties including Broward, MiamiDade, Orange, and Palm Beach.2.5 Locational TrendsThe macro features of the population movement in Florida continued a southward shift for a number of years and then, more recently, has turned northward. In our work with local jurisdictions, one of the major concerns, particularly in the south, is called buildout. Build-out is the condition where there simply is no more land available on which to build homes. The shortage of land also creates concern for the price of the limited supply. We believe that these concerns are harbingers of Florida following the national trend toward a movement to smaller, outlying jurisdictions. Of course, the full impact of this trend will have to be balanced to some degree by growth management in the state, any changes that may be made to the growth management act, and the effort to encourage higher density development. Although the states growth has been concentrated primarily in and around the six major metropolitan areas and generally in the southern portion of the state, we may be seeing other parts of the state experience more rapid growth. This change is particularly true for the over-65 group that has come to Florida to get away from the congestion that is emerging in Floridas densely populated urban areas. 2.6 SummaryFlorida will continue to grow rapidly through the 2000-2010 projection period. To accommodate that growth, the housing stock will need to expand substantially. With a projected increase of over 1.1 million households by the year 2010, together with a need to replace units removed from the housing stock, we estimate that between 1.2 million and 1.4 million housing units will need to be added to Floridas housing stock by the year 2010. As the population ages, the demand for owner (versus renter) occupancy will increase in a state that already has a high percentage of home ownership relative to the national average. The substantial8 9 Exhibit 2.5 State of Florida Household Income 19980 200000 400000 600000 800000 1000000 1200000 1400000 0-10k10-20k20-30k30-40k40-50k50-60k60-75k75-100k100-125k125-150k150k+ Income IncomeTotal Households 1400000 1200000 1000000 800000 600000 400000 200000 Exhibit 2.5 State of Florida Household Income 1998 0-10K 10-20K 20-30K 30-40K 40-50K 50-60K 60-75K 75-100K 100-125K 125-150K 150K+

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The State of FloridasHousing, 2000 into major metropolitan areas (6 MSAs) and other metropolitan areas (14 MSAs). The major MSAs include Ft. Lauderdale, Miami, Jacksonville, Orlando, West Palm Beach-Boca Raton, and Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater. A total of fifteen counties are in major MSAs. The 14 other MSAs include nineteen counties. A total of 34 of Floridas 67 counties are therefore found in metropolitan areas, with the remaining 33 being non-metropolitan.7These remaining 33 counties are further categorized, as shown in the exhibits, into four regional groups: Northwest, Northeast, Central, and South, according to categories used by the University of Floridas Bureau of Economic and Business Research. The totals and means for the state reported above allow for the determination of the standing of counties and metropolitan areas relative to the state, and for comparisons across counties and metropolitan areas. The six major MSAs contain over two million singlefamily units and these units comprise about 59 percent of the total housing stock in the state. Over one-quarter of the major MSA total, comprising almost 17 percent of the state is found in the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater MSA (which we will refer to as Tampa Bay). The Orlando MSA has approximately 11 percent of the states single-family stock, and the Miami MSA and the Ft. Lauderdale MSA about 9 percent each. Of single county MSAs, Miami and Ft. Lauderdale have the largest numbers of single-family housing units in the state. Together, these two counties contain over 17 percent of the states single-family units. Adding Palm Beach County results in almost 23 percent of the states single-family stock being located in the these three southeast Florida counties. The 14 other MSAs contain approximately 34 percent of the states single-family housing stock, while the 33 non-metropolitan counties contain only 7 percent. The non-metropolitan counties show the extremes of population densities in the state. For example, Lafayette County has fewer than 1,000 single-family units. Other counties with less than 3,000 units include Baker, Calhoun, Dixie, Gilchrist, Glades, Hamilton, Jefferson, Liberty, Madison, Suwannee, and Union Counties. These 13 counties combined have only about one-half of one percent of the total singlefamily housing units in the state. The total assessed value of singlefamily units in the state shows a similar pattern. The total assessed value of single family units in the state is approximately $341.1 billion and about 62 percent of that total is found in the major MSAs. The three southeast Florida counties Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beachhave about 30 percent of the total assessed value. The average assessed value of a single-family housing unit in Florida is about $94,540. A relative age index is constructed to compare the average age of housing units in a county or MSA to the state total. Counties or MSAs with an older housing stock than Floridas average have a relative age index greater than one. Areas with a relatively young stock have an index less than one. The housing stock in the major MSAs is slightly older than the state average, as the relative age index is 1.03 and the average age is 25 years (rounded) as compared to the states 24 year average. Counties alone have 60 percent of the states condominiums. The other four counties are Collier, Lee, Pinellas, and Sarasota. Clearly, condominiums tend to be a coastal phenomenon. By contrast, mobile or manufactured housing is largely a rural, inland phenomenon. Finally, an important characteristic of the existing housing stock is its age. We examine the extent to which the age of the stock exceeds 40 years. The fortyyear mark is considered by some as the age at which rehabilitation and remodeling are commonly considered. Since much of Floridas housing stock was built from the 1950s forward, the housing industry needs to think in terms of meeting the coming demand for rehabilitation and remodeling. Jacksonville and Miami are two metropolitan areas with older housing stocks that need to have serious consideration given to the rehabilitation market. The following section describes the existing singlefamily housing stock in Florida. Subsequent sections provide detailed information on the condominium market and the multifamily housing market. Although mobile homes account for a significant portion of residential housing units in many rural counties, we are unable to describe and discuss Floridas mobile home stock because accurate data are not available. Accurate data on manufactured housing (mobile homes) is difficult to obtain for several reasons. First, a mobile home is classified as real property if the owner owns both the home and the lot. It is these homes that are included in the property appraiser files. Other mobile homes, perhaps the larger share of them, are located on rented sites and carry a tag from the Division of Motor Vehicles. Further, even combining these sources results in data that are not consistent from year to year. In addition to reporting problems, possible causes of inconsistencies include units not counted because of confusion about their status, failure to renew a tag, units placed on land and not reported to the appraiser, or uncertainty about the location of the unit (i.e. in a city or in the unincorporated portion of a county).3.2 Single-Family HousingSummary data by county, with aggregations to metropolitan and state totals are included in Exhibit 3.2 (if the data were not available on the county property appraiser files for a county, an N/A is placed on the table). The single-family housing stock of Florida totals 3,607,702 units and the total assessed value of these units is $341.1 billion. Seventy-seven percent of these units are occupied by their owner, the remainder are renter-occupied. The mean age of housing units in the state is 24 years, and the average size is 1,874 square feet. The number of single-family sales in 1998 totaled approximately 253,823, which is equal to approximately 7 percent of the total housing stock in this state.5 The median price of a 1998 sale was $105,000. This is lower than both the 1998 new median house price in the U.S. of $152,500 and the 1998 existing house price of $128,400.6Floridas housing is geographically concentrated. The states 20 metropolitan areas (MSAs) are divided Ft. Lauderdale Jacksonville Miami Orlando Tampa-St. Pete WPB-Boca0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 1949 or earlier 1950-1959PercentMetropolitan Statistical AreasExhibit 3.1 Year Structure Built Florida 5 The number of sales depends on what classes of transactions are regarded as qualified sales. For example, the total quoted here excludes sales that were not arms-length.6 The sources for these national prices are: new single family U.S. Census Bureau, Survey of Construction/Housing Sales Survey; existing single family National Association of Realtors, Existing Home Sales Survey. 7 Multiple county MSAs are as follows: Daytona Beach MSA includes Flagler and Volusia Counties. Ft. Pierce-Port St. Lucie MSA includes Martin and St. Lucie Counties. Jacksonville MSA includes Clay, Duval, Nassau and St. Johns Counties. Orlando MSA includes Lake, Orange, Osceola and Seminole Counties. Pensacola MSA includes Escambia and Santa Rosa Counties. Sarasota-Bradenton MSA includes Manatee and Sarasota Counties. Tallahassee MSA includes Gadsden and Leon Counties. Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater MSA includes Hernando, Hillsborough, Pasco and Pinellas Counties.10 11

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The State of FloridasHousing, 2000 Total just value ($mils) % of state Average age 358,5761002411,8741.00253,823105,000 38,00910.6230.961,8941.0129,440129,000 2,9700.8180.752,0031.072,98399,700 16,7294.7311.31,7580.9412,52194,500 1,2500.3220.891,9941.06840123,750 4,6691.3170.682,1641.162,952149,400 25,6197.1281.151,8450.9819,296101,900 38,23810.7321.311,8570.9918,872128,000 4,1901.2230.951,4810.794,55195,700 20,3215.7230.951,8861.0117,879105,000 3,5331150.641,8300.984,14697,850 10,0752.8200.842,1001.128,192119,450 38,11910.6220.891,880134,768105,700 3,0020.8150.63 na na 2,50570,000 20,4055.7220.921,8130.9717,612105,900 6,7181.9210.891,6910.97,76368,000 21,5586271.121,6610.8914,13293,800 51,68314.4240.971,7290.9242,01292,000 30,9168.6240.982,1811.1614,873135,000 222,58362.1251.031,8600.99159,261112,400 1,6440.5130.542,0651.11,12092,000 9,0682.5261.061,4960.84,91775,500 10,71232411,5650.846,03779,400 13,2593.7210.861,8881.017,690116,000 6,0651.7170.692,5311.352,955140,000 4,1561.2200.812,2091.183,04875,250 10,2202.9180.762,3401.256,00393,000 4,5671.3210.881,9301.033,73397,000 3,6521240.991,86913,06696,000 6,8411.9291.222,1811.166,79778,000 11,1733.1220.911,5770.848,42386,500 10,2742.9160.68nana3,901166,200 3,9911.1200.821,5130.814,68277,400 3,0530.9241.011,7970.962,77186,700 y Single Family Housing Stock Total units % of state % owner occupied Total assessed value ($mils) % of state Florida 3,607,70210077.4341,057100 Ft. Lauderdale MSA Broward County 323,762980.836,53310.7 Jacksonville MSA Clay County 34,479184.82,8350.8 Duval County 202,5835.679.815,5394.6 Nassau County 12,3730.378.41,1750.3 St. Johns County 32,3960.979.54,2771.3 Total 281,8317.880.323,8267 Miami MSA Miami-Dade County 309,8418.678.235,84310.5 Orlando MSA Lake County 51,7701.478.44,1171.2 Orange County 201,4485.677.119,7865.8 Osceola County 42,9831.264.93,5021 Seminole County 98,2082.782.29,8112.9 Total 394,40910.977.237,21610.9 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater MSA Hernando County 43,2841.2792,9700.9 Hillsborough County 236,2496.582.119,2025.6 Pasco County 97,8412.7786,3691.9 Pinellas County 236,0536.580.320,3746 Total 613,4271780.548,91614.3 West Palm Beach-Boca Raton MSA Palm Beach County 189,7545.37929,2948.6 Regional subtotal MSA subtotal 2,113,02458.679.4211,62762.1 Daytona Beach MSA Flagler County 17,5920.573.81,6200.5 Volusia County 122,6003.478.18,8352.6 Total 140,1923.977.610,4563.1 Ft. Myers-Cape Coral MSA Lee County 116,4243.271.412,8183.8 Ft. Pierce-Port St. Lucie MSA Martin County 36,282174.35,8261.7 St. Lucie County 57,6991.672.64,1061.2 Total 93,9812.673.39,9312.9 Ft. Walton Beach MSA Okaloosa County 49,6831.471.94,3341.3 Gainesville MSA Alachua County 45,0541.279.13,3571 Lakeland-Winter Haven MSA Polk County 111,4523.1756,7752 Melbourne-Titusville-Palm Bay MSA Brevard County 138,0203.879.710,6783.1 Naples MSA Collier County 48,8401.470.29,3682.7 Ocala MSA Marion County 62,3011.7773,7751.1 Panama City MSA Bay County 43,0691.2682,9430.9Exhibit 3.212 13 Median 1998 sale price Relative size index Number of 1998 sales Relative age index Average sizecontinued on next page

PAGE 9

The State of FloridasHousing, 2000 5,0951.4301.231,6940.94,63384,000 3,1840.9180.741,9891.062,51898,900 8,2802.3261.091,7780.957,15189,500 4,7071.3190.781,9071.023,07685,500 6,1531.7251.062,2611.214,649115,000 12,7873.6241.012,0281.088,869105,500 18,9405.3251.032,1131.1313,518110,000 3960.1311.271,6210.8719770,000 5,2771.5230.941,6000.853,66297,000 5,6741.6240.991,6030.863,85995,500 115,34432.2230.951,9241.0380,70793,000 910311.281,5950.855448,250 5180.1291.21,5950.85238125,000 3470.1220.891,6240.8719980,900 1290331.351,4750.7914540,000 4280.1321.331,6980.9124958,000 720311.281,7310.926255,500 470311.281,5610.832935,500 2500.1210.861,6030.8621988,000 1,3770.4200.821,8671696125,000 1600321.31,6030.8614248,500 3,4191271.11,6830.92,03375,100 1510271.131,6710.8914477,000 2510.1321.311,6590.8917662,250 5460.2281.161,7930.9649867,500 760291.18nana4039,650 790251.051,6690.894659,250 690351.431,5960.853853,000 300301.251,5590.832841,250 2940.1251.041,6290.8718555,000 1130230.951,5520.837451,450 2340.1271.131,6220.8716255,000 1960.1240.991,6190.8613940,000 430271.111,7480.931846,000 2,0810.6271.141,6970.911,54860,000 2,4920.7180.73 na na 2,33764,000 8430.2331.351,9811.0657959,000 6720.2180.731,6050.861,515109,200 4,0061.1210.881,8210.974,43178,000 2680.1291.21,7030.9114168,000 800261.061,5900.854768,000 1680311.31,5500.8313847,050 2660.1240.981,6320.8716659,000 1,4650.4200.841,6960.911,45661,000 3,8651.1210.891,9181.022,15387,500 4,6781.3251.051,5120.811,466212,500 3530.1240.981,6480.8827667,150 11,1443.1230.951,7140.915,84390,500 20,6495.8240.991,7170.9213,85579,900 Total just value ($mils) % of state Average age y Single Family Housing Stock Pensacola MSA Escambia County 82,3632.375.74,6741.4 Santa Rosa County 33,3820.9782,9670.9 Total 115,7453.276.47,6412.2 Punta Gorda MSA Charlotte County 51,1751.472.24,4211.3 Sarasota-Bradenton MSA Manatee County 56,0041.677.65,8151.7 Sarasota County 96,8832.775.111,9453.5 Total 152,8874.27617,7605.2 Tallahassee MSA Gadsden County 9,1000.376.83850.1 Leon County 58,0241.675.65,0181.5 Total 67,1241.975.85,4031.6 Regional subtotal MSA subtotal 1,235,94734.375.2109,65932.2 Northwest nonmetropolitan area Calhoun County 2,4400.175.9870 Franklin County 5,0920.145.44880.1 Gulf County 4,7850.158.73000.1 Holmes County 3,1270.1751170 Jackson County 9,5350.373.43910.1 Jefferson County 1,8470.173.7710 Liberty County 1,230066.9410 Wakulla County 4,2730.169.72350.1 Walton County 11,6520.357.91,2850.4 Washington County 3,8740.170.81510 Total 47,8551.364.73,1660.9 Northeast nonmetropolitan area Baker County 2,8430.180.31410 Bradford County 4,9470.174.92440.1 Columbia County 9,9840.3795200.2 Dixie County 2,3920.165740 Gilchrist County 1,642075780 Hamilton County 1,8490.172.2680 Lafayette County 7660 73.8290 Levy County 5,9130.272.12890.1 Madison County 2,9400.1721110 Suwannee County 4,8450.175.52170.1 Taylor County 4,6460.1na1920.1 Union County 1,048076.5410 Total 43,8151.272.42,0030.6 Central nonmetropolitan area Citrus County 38,3431.179.12,3750.7 Putnam County 15,1120.473.67990.2 Sumter County 11,2900.376.96570.2 Total 64,7451.877.43,8301.1 South nonmetropolitan area De Soto County 4,9530.171.42570.1 Glades County 1,483055.8800 Hardee County 3,8580.176.51580 Hendry County 4,7520.169.32660.1 Highlands County 26,4730.770.91,4580.4 Indian River County 32,2610.973.83,7861.1 Monroe County 22,6060.654.54,4191.3 Okeechobee County 5,9300.271.63480.1 Total 102,3162.868.210,7713.2 Regional subtotal MSA subtotal 258,7317.270.619,7705.8 Total units % of state % owner occupied Total assessed value ($mils) % of state g Exhibit 3.214 15 Median 1998 sale price Relative size index Number of 1998 sales Relative age index Average sizecontinued from previous page

PAGE 10

The State of FloridasHousing, 2000 they were 5.4 percent. Turnover of single-family housing units is clearly higher in major MSAs than in other MSAs, with the lowest turnover rates being in the non-MSA counties. Counties with fewer than 100 transactions were small, rural counties including Calhoun, Dixie, Gilchrist, Glades, Hamilton, Jefferson, Lafayette, Liberty, Madison, and Union (with a state low of 18 transactions). The highest single-family median prices are in Monroe ($212,500), Collier ($166,200), St. Johns ($149,400), Martin ($140,000), and Palm Beach ($135,000) Counties. Other counties with median sales prices above $120,000 include Broward, Nassau, Miami-Dade, Franklin, and Walton. All the counties with high median prices are coastal counties. Counties with low median prices include a number with median prices at or below $40,000: Dixie ($39,650), Holmes ($40,000), Lafayette ($40,000), Liberty ($35,500), and Taylor ($40,000). The sales price data further illustrate the differences between urban and rural counties and between coastal and noncoastal counties. The highest mean prices in 1998 are in coastal counties, several of which are not major urban counties (for example, Collier and Martin). At the other extreme, counties with the lowest mean house prices are generally rural, slow growing, and located in the interior of the state. The state of Florida has distinct differences in housing markets across different geographic and population characteristics.3.3 CondominiumsThe role of condominiums in providing housing in a county is another indicator of the differences in housing stock across counties. Exhibit 3.3 contains summary information on the states stock of condominiums. As expected, condominiums are an important source of housing in coastal counties where a number of retirees live, but not in interior counties. Summing across counties indicates that there were 1,226,099 condominium housing units in the state in 1998. Approximately 47 percent of these units are owneroccupied, much less than the 77 percent owner-occupied percentage found in the detached single-family stock. A total of 717,459 units, or over 58 percent of condominium units in the state, are located in three southeast Florida counties: Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach. By contrast, 12 counties report fewer than 200 such units. All of the latter counties are non-MSA counties. In total, the non-MSA counties have less than 2.5 percent of the total condominiums in the state, and 85 percent of these are found in three counties: Indian River, Monroe, and Walton.Other coastal metropolitan counties have a much smaller stock of condominium units than the three southeast counties, but condominiums still play a major role in the provision of housing in those counties. For example, Collier Countys 66,665 condominium units far exceed the 48,840 single-family housing units in the county. Condominium units also exceed singlefamily units in Palm Beach County. Other counties in which condominiums are a significant portion of the housing stock (generally, close to or above 40 percent of the single-family stock) include Lee, Manatee, Pinellas, Sarasota, and Walton. The mean age of condominium units for the state of Florida is approximately 18 years, below the 24-year average for single-family units. Some of the newest condominium stocks are located in nonmetropolitan counties including Franklin, with a mean age of 2 years. For the other MSAs, the index is 0.95 with an average age of 23 years, and the non-MSA counties had an age index of 1.0 with an average age of 24 years. Comparisons at these high levels of aggregation, however, mask significant differences in individual MSAs and counties. For example, with a relative age index of 0.54, Flagler County in the Daytona Beach MSA has the newest housing stock in Florida. This reflects a single-family housing stock in Flagler with an average age of 13 years. Other counties with relative age indexes of 0.75 or below include Clay, St. Johns, Osceola, and Hernando Counties among major MSA counties; Collier, Martin, and Santa Rosa Counties among the other MSAs; and Citrus and Sumter Counties in the non-metropolitan category. Generally, the counties with newer housing stocks are coastal counties that have experienced rapid growth. Single-family housing stocks that are older than the state average are generally found in large urban counties or in the rural, interior counties with smaller populations. The oldest single-family stock is in Hamilton County, with a relative age index of 1.43 and a mean age of 35 years. Other non-metropolitan counties with a relative age index of 1.25 or greater include Bradford, Calhoun, Hardee, Holmes, Jackson, Jefferson, Lafayette, Liberty, Putnam, and Washington. Among the metropolitan counties, the oldest housing stock is found in Miami-Dade County with an average age of 32 years. Gadsden County, a small county in the Tallahassee MSA, and Duval County (Jacksonville) each had an average age of 31 years. Pinellas (27 years), Polk (29 years), and Escambia (30 years) also have relatively old housing stocks. Similar to the relative age index, a relative size index also was constructed. This index compares the average size of units in each county or MSA to the state average. The average size of a singlefamily housing unit in the state of Florida is about 1,874 square feet and the averages for the major MSAs, other MSAs, and non-metropolitan areas show little variation around that average. Counties with relative size averages of 1.20 or greater include Manatee and Martin. No clear pattern emerges as to characteristics of counties with large square footage of units. Counties with units that are smaller than average are generally nonmetropolitan counties. While a number of non-metropolitan counties had average size indices below 0.9, only Holmes County fell below the 0.8 size index. Metropolitan counties with relative size indices below 0.8, indicating average unit sizes of below about 1,500 square feet, include only Lake and Volusia Counties. Counties with the largest number of sales transactions in 1998 are, as expected, the largest counties in population. Almost 63 percent of the single-family transactions in the state in 1998 were in the major MSA counties, with 16.5 percent in the Tampa Bay MSA alone. Among individual counties Broward was the highest with 11.6 percent of the state total and MiamiDade had 7.4% of Floridas 1998 transactions. Almost 25 percent of transactions in 1998 were in the three southeast Florida countiesMiamiDade, Broward, and Palm Beach. Thirty-two percent of all sales in 1998 were in other MSA counties, while the remaining 5 percent were in the nonmetropolitan counties. The turnover rate measures the percentage of total units sold in each area. Units sold as a percentage of total units in the large MSAs were 7.5 percent. The sales in other MSAs equaled 6.5 percent of total units, in the non-MSA counties16 17

PAGE 11

The State of FloridasHousing, 2000 % of state Total just value ($mils) % of state Average age 100106,372100181102,91284,000 11.312,17711.4 na na 15,00158,000 0.1650.1160.98558,000 0.55120.5 na na 47668,250 0.33490.3180.98272130,950 0.89000.8 na na 735109,000 1.71,8261.7170.951,56893,000 21.723,14121.8nana24,61687,900 0.21690.2170.9418961,000 3.13,2373nana2,05758,000 0.88240.8130.7414481,000 0.43850.4201.0975257,500 4.44,6154.3180.983,14259,000 0330110.633651,000 11,1371.1160.881,91063,500 0.44750.4180.9970145,000 55,2945211.186,62764,500 6.56,9406.5201.119,27462,000 21.923,11121.7nana19,715106,000 67.571,81067.5201.0973,31678,500 0.11470.1150.8117789,900 1.51,6191.5nana1,23285,000 1.71,7661.7nana1,40985,000 4.95,1424.8150.834,695115,000 0.99220.9201.11,06560,325 0.99550.9nana95687,000 1.81,8771.8nana2,02170,000 1.11,1701.1nana686na 0.11330.1150.8331851,500 0.32720.3nana53848,700 1.41,4501.4191.061,94270,000 8.69,0748.5130.745,503126,300 Total units % of state % owner occupied Total assessed value ($mils) Florida 1,226,09910046.9104,283 Ft. Lauderdale MSA Broward County 207,19316.954.211,825 Jacksonville MSA Clay County 1,0980.15763 Duval County 7,0370.655.1479 Nassau County 2,4870.215347 St. Johns County 7,4460.629.3857 Total 18,0681.5391,746 Miami MSA Miami-Dade County 257,4972151.322,628 Orlando MSA Lake County 2,5150.256.6166 Orange County 29,2412.431.23,222 Osceola County 3,3520.37.8823 Seminole County 8,1080.754.9378 Total 43,2163.535.34,589 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater MSA Hernando County 6460.1 44.133 Hillsborough County 20,7721.754.11,090 Pasco County 10,8720.951465 Pinellas County 81,1436.6505,182 Total 113,4339.350.86,769 West Palm Beach-Boca Raton MSA Palm Beach County 252,76920.654.422,792 Regional subtotal MSA subtotal 892,17672.851.870,349 Daytona Beach MSA Flagler County 1,5830.135.1146 Volusia County 20,6861.7331,607 Total 22,2691.833.11,753 Ft. Myers-Cape Coral MSA Lee County 49,101431.35,085 Ft. Pierce-Port St. Lucie MSA Martin County 13,2111.148.4918 St. Lucie County 12,163134.4952 Total 25,3742.141.71,870 Ft. Walton Beach MSA Okaloosa County 8,9930.79.51,149 Gainesville MSA Alachua County 3,0160.244.1128 Lakeland-Winter Haven MSA Polk County 6,9610.633272 Melbourne-Titusville-Palm Bay MSA Brevard County 22,9951.943.11,440 Naples MSA Collier County 66,6655.428.28,926 Condominium Housing Stock Exhibit 3.318 19 Relative age index Number of 1998 sales Median 1998 sale price

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The State of FloridasHousing, 2000 0.33380.3150.846561,000 0.88850.8150.8197999,500 0.43860.4170.91490na 0.11090.1 na na 74na 0.54960.5170.91564na 0.99300.9150.8493170,500 1.71,8411.7181.011,86782,000 5.25,6055.3201.084,470115,000 6.97,4477191.066,337101,900 0270251.385844,150 0270251.385844,150 29.231,00629.1170.9626,446100,000 02020.1112108,700 040140.752115,000 060nana1094,000 1.11,1401.1nana1,093na 1.11,1511.1nana1,117na 010 na na 164,500 030201.13664,750 0110100.5513115,000 nanananana na na 0160120.682084,000 0.1690.1170.9413858,000 080191.061765,000 040nana1136,500 0.1810.1170.9516658,000 0240nana9871,400 020170.94362,000 070nana1735,000 080120.64563,000 0520191.038650,000 1.11,1741.1180.9998598,000 11,0341nana638159,000 050231.241529,500 2.22,3072.2180.981,847111,000 3.43,5563.3180.973,150132,450 % of state Total just value ($mils) % of state Average age Condominium Housing Stock Ocala MSA Marion County 6,0390.563.9334 Panama City MSA Bay County 9,9090.89.6872 Pensacola MSA Escambia County 4,0450.325.1376 Santa Rosa County 9130.1 23.8107 Total 4,9580.424.9483 Punta Gorda MSA Charlotte County 10,9170.929.2908 Sarasota-Bradenton MSA Manatee County 22,9591.949.91,804 Sarasota County 42,6853.541.25,383 Total 65,6445.444.37,187 Tallahassee MSA Leon County 6850.1 24.227 Total 6850.1 24.227 Regional subtotal MSA subtotal 303,52624.834.630,433 Northwest nonmetropolitan area Franklin County 1905.32 Gulf County 3605.64 Wakulla County 820 24.46 Walton County 7,3050.67.21,132 Total 7,4420.67.41,143 Northeast nonmetropolitan area Bradford County 180 77.81 Columbia County 470 61.73 Levy County 16804.811 Taylor County 13nanana Total 2460 20.716 Central nonmetropolitan area Citrus County 1,4670.139.568 Putnam County 1410 30.58 Sumter County 1060 37.74 Total 1,7140.138.780 South nonmetropolitan area De Soto County 4240 39.624 Glades County 320 21.92 Hardee County 2350 24.77 Hendry County 1480 20.98 Highlands County 1,2870.141.652 Indian River County 11,4120.943.71,146 Monroe County 7,2680.617.11,017 Okeechobee County 1890 30.75 Total 20,9951.733.82,261 Regional subtotal MSA subtotal 30,3972.527.53,501 Total units % of state % owner occupied Total assessed value ($mils)Exhibit 3.320 21 Relative age index Number of 1998 sales Median 1998 sale price

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The State of FloridasHousing, 2000 Average age Relative age index New complexes constructed in 1998 % of state Number of 1998 sales 3413881008,14845.69 371.09287.21,39253.32 280.8300nana 501.4882.119133.26 260.78411759.7 260.77235.95759.48 431.2735926635.71 401.178120.91,57656.01 361.06153.95542.17 230.67102.663245.75 230.6920.53038.66 270.830.87135.51 240.72307.778844.74 170.5412229.53 250.7592.327135.24 250.7520.57835.26 391.1561.580741.04 341.01215.41,17839.09 341.02153.964942.75 361.0621054.15,84947.41 170.5161.51041.26 250.760029652.02 250.7561.530651.52 240.720034039.53 210.6210.35933.52 330.98003527.92 290.8510.39432.07 270.7930.82241.61 280.8471.87525.99 nana51.319328.67 361.08133.414348.08 240.72102.67250.08 240.7164.15128.59 200.59143.63435.68Stock with Two to Nine Units in Complex Total complexes % of state Total just value ($mils) % of state Florida 150,00010014,191100 Ft. Lauderdale MSA Broward County 19,78913.22,36916.7 Jacksonville MSA Clay County 2750.2260.2 Duval County 4,9333.33702.6 Nassau County 3070.2370.3 St. Johns County 1,7631.22131.5 Total 7,2784.96464.6 Miami MSA Miami-Dade County 32,48321.73,62025.5 Orlando MSA Lake County 1,1300.8870.6 Orange County 9,5386.46234.4 Osceola County 8100.5680.5 Seminole County 1,1590.8870.6 Total 12,6378.48656.1 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater MSA Hernando County 3570.2270.2 Hillsborough County 5,2043.53112.2 Pasco County 1,1990.8770.5 Pinellas County 13,6139.11,1788.3 Total 20,37313.61,59311.2 West Palm Beach-Boca Raton MSA Palm Beach County 10,7167.11,0137.1 Regional subtotal MSA subtotal 103,27668.910,10771.2 Daytona Beach MSA Flagler County 3030.2290.2 Volusia County 6,7464.54293 Total 7,0494.74583.2 Ft. Myers-Cape Coral MSA Lee County 5,4293.64673.3 Ft. Pierce-Port St. Lucie MSA Martin County 8720.6640.5 St. Lucie County 1,4781890.6 Total 2,3501.61531.1 Ft. Walton Beach MSA Okaloosa County 7140.5790.6 Gainesville MSA Alachua County 1,7811.21050.7 Lakeland-Winter Haven MSA Polk County 4,49532331.6 Melbourne-Titusville-Palm Bay MSA Brevard County 2,96122721.9 Naples MSA Collier County 1,8751.32011.4 Ocala MSA Marion County 1,0610.7670.5 Panama City MSA Bay County 7340.5660.5Exhibit 3.4 Multi-Family Housing22 23 Median 1998 price per square foot

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The State of FloridasHousing, 2000 320.94112.83229.23 190.55411942.6 280.85153.95131.21 180.5430.84741.16 341.01112.825636.88 361.06102.623350.51 341.02215.448940.61 180.5310.3nana 260.79256.47441.3 260.79266.77541.29 280.8414036.11,99240.33 150.4500 na na 230.6800 na na 40.1300 na na 180.5200 na na 170.5100 na na 310.9100 na na 220.6600 na na 130.3800 na na 170.4900 na na 180.5300 na na 260.7810.3 na na nana00 na na 230.6830.81432.27 250.7400 na na 160.4741 na na 230.6900 na na nana00 na na 220.6430.8231.52 170.5200241.53 210.6300 na na nana00 na na 310.9200 na na 240.7112.81932.42 220.650041na 391.1510.3828.38 220.6600425.96 260.7710.353na 290.8510.3730.63 240.7200336.21 320.9600723.42 290.8710.31330.63 310.9171.82726.92 300.8871.84041.86 401.1892.3129132.81 280.8310.3730.53 351.04266.723366.42 330.98389.830745.45 Average age Relative age index New complexes constructed in 1998 % of state Number of 1998 salesStock with Two to Nine Units in Complex Exhibit 3.4 Multi-Family Housing24 25 Pensacola MSA Escambia County 1,8291.21130.8 Santa Rosa County 6320.4560.4 Total 2,4611.61681.2 Punta Gorda MSA Charlotte County 8720.6810.6 Sarasota-Bradenton MSA Manatee County 4,6013.14213 Sarasota County 2,2931.52501.8 Total 6,8944.66714.7 Tallahassee MSA Gadsden County 11080.1 Leon County 2,0101.31611.1 Total 2,0211.31701.2 Regional subtotal MSA subtotal 40,69727.1 3,19222.5 Northwest nonmetropolitan area Calhoun County 3020 Franklin County 19040 Gulf County 4000 Holmes County 8010 Jackson County 630120.1 Jefferson County 12020 Wakulla County 17010 Walton County 44070 Washington County 8020 Total 1780.1320.2 Northeast nonmetropolitan area Baker County 22030 Bradford County 18010 Columbia County 2090.1180.1 Dixie County 3000 Gilchrist County 8010 Hamilton County 17040 Lafayette County 4000 Levy County 68060 Madison County 37040 Suwannee County 44030 Taylor County 8050 Union County 11010 Total 4490.3480.3 Central nonmetropolitan area Citrus County 3720.2230.2 Putnam County 1380.170.1 Sumter County 72050 Total 5820.4350.2 South nonmetropolitan area De Soto County 1680.1100.1 Glades County 35020 Hardee County 1010.150 Hendry County 3890.3250.2 Highlands County 7070.5370.3 Indian River County 7290.5640.4 Monroe County 2,5681.76264.4 Okeechobee County 1210.180.1 Total 4,8183.27775.5 Regional subtotal MSA subtotal 6,02748926.3 Total complexes % of state Total just value ($mils) % of stateMedian 1998 price per square foot

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The State of FloridasHousing, 2000 Average age Relative age index New complexes constructed in 1998 % of state Number of 1998 sales 29115610061642.16 321.111710.910055.35 nana10.6 na na 270.9453.22225.04 230.7800 na na 150.5210.6 na na 260.9174.52225.04 351.22138.316952.73 210.7210.6540.64 220.772012.85935.79 170.5921.3 na na 170.5863.8731.03 210.712918.67135.79 150.5321.3 na na 240.82138.32632.26 200.6842.6 na na 291.0163.85331.52 260.8925167931.94 260.91127.73339.91 301.041036647444.94 nana00 na na 371.28001734.97 371.28001734.97 210.73001337.21 220.7621.3346.05 250.8510.6 na na 230.8131.9346.05 200.6953.2540.38 210.7395.8829.53 270.9331.91127.41 270.9310.61035.82 180.6242.6853.38 210.7310.6523.78 190.6631.9221.14Stock with Ten or More Units in Complex Total complexes % of state Total just value ($mils) % of state A Florida 13,56010024,089100 Ft. Lauderdale MSA Broward County 1,80713.33,87516.1 Jacksonville MSA Clay County 400.31240.5 Duval County 5263.9 1,5696.5 Nassau County 310.2190.1 St. Johns County 370.31310.5 Total 6344.7 1,8427.6 Miami MSA Miami-Dade County 3,99229.44,82420 Orlando MSA Lake County 1060.8940.4 Orange County 6845 2,63911 Osceola County 800.62551.1 Seminole County 2982.29604 Total 1,1688.63,94816.4 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater MSA Hernando County 420.3280.1 Hillsborough County 7705.7 2,0788.6 Pasco County 13211270.5 Pinellas County 7815.8 1,4095.8 Total 1,72512.73,64115.1 West Palm Beach-Boca Raton MSA Palm Beach County 7515.5 1,8907.8 Regional subtotal MSA subtotal 10,07774.320,02183.1 Daytona Beach MSA Flagler County 5040 Volusia County 4863.63351.4 Total 4913.63391.4 Ft. Myers-Cape Coral MSA Lee County 1471.13231.3 Ft. Pierce-Port St. Lucie MSA Martin County 610.4760.3 St. Lucie County 580.4570.2 Total 1190.91330.6 Ft. Walton Beach MSA Okaloosa County 1311840.3 Gainesville MSA Alachua County 3982.94671.9 Lakeland-Winter Haven MSA Polk County 27222190.9 Melbourne-Titusville-Palm Bay MSA Brevard County 27323991.7 Naples MSA Collier County 860.62971.2 Ocala MSA Marion County 850.6990.4 Panama City MSA Bay County 1180.91060.4Exhibit 3.5 Multi-Family Housing26 27 Median 1998 price per square foot

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The State of FloridasHousing, 2000 220.7742.6 na na nana00na na 220.7542.6na na 210.7210.6 na na 260.931.9734.31 331.1310.62839.92 301.0442.63539.53 270.9100 na na 250.8774.51433.22 250.8774.51433.22 260.914528.813235.19 90.3100 na na 190.6500 na na 200.700 na na 140.4900 na na 210.7300 na na 301.0400 na na 10.0310.6 na na 90.3100 na na 210.7100 na na 150.510.6 na na 190.6500 na na 200.6800 na na 321.0900 na na nana00 na na 110.3800 na na 170.5900 na na 210.7100 na na 190.6500 na na 230.800 na na nana00 na na 220.7600 na na 250.8500 na na 150.5300 na na 170.600 na na 270.9121.3847.98 200.6821.3847.98 200.6900 na na 290.9800 na na 200.6700 na na 270.9410.6 na na 210.7400na na 220.7742.6na na 210.7200 na na 40.1400 na na 220.7553.2na na 200.6985.11047.98 Average age Relative age index New complexes constructed in 1998 % of state Number of 1998 salesStock with Ten or More Units in Complex Exhibit 3.5 Multi-Family Housing28 29 Pensacola MSA Escambia County 1180.92040.8 Santa Rosa County 470.3200.1 Total 1651.22240.9 Punta Gorda MSA Charlotte County 250.2130.1 Sarasota-Bradenton MSA Manatee County 13013451.4 Sarasota County 2091.53201.3 Total 3392.56652.8 Tallahassee MSA Gadsden County 430.330 Leon County 3252.44671.9 Total 3682.74702 Regional subtotal MSA subtotal 3,01722.23,83615.9 Northwest nonmetropolitan area Calhoun County 3000 Franklin County 250.250 Gulf County 4030 Holmes County 6030 Jackson County 130.130 Jefferson County 6010 Wakulla County 1010 Walton County 530.4150.1 Washington County 3010 Total 1140.8330.1 Northeast nonmetropolitan area Baker County 1010 Bradford County 110.180 Columbia County 240.2140.1 Dixie County 4010 Gilchrist County 1000 Lafayette County 1010 Levy County 100.150 Madison County 4030 Suwannee County 150.180 Taylor County 3010 Union County 3010 Total 770.6430.2 Central nonmetropolitan area Citrus County 470.3180.1 Putnam County 270.2180.1 Sumter County 420.380 Total 1160.9440.2 South nonmetropolitan area De Soto County 330.2100 Glades County 4010 Hardee County 80.150 Hendry County 120.180 Highlands County 560.4220.1 Indian River County 410.3490.2 Monroe County 30160.1 Okeechobee County 2010 Total 1591.21120.5 Regional subtotal MSA subtotal 4663.42321 Total complexes % of state Total just value ($mils) % of state Median 1998 price per square foot

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The State of FloridasHousing, 2000 8,148 small multifamily properties sold across the state in 1998. Miami-Dade and Broward Counties combined to have over 36 percent of the sales in the state, and almost 72 percent of all sales were in major MSA areas. Because multifamily buildings vary in size and numbers of units, a median price per square foot was calculated to allow comparisons across counties. The median price for the state was $45.69. Monroe County, with a price per square foot of $132.81, was by far the highest per square foot average. The next highest average was St. Johns County at almost $60 per square foot. Exhibit 3.5 contains information on multifamily complexes with 10 or more units. With a total of 13,560 complexes in the state, there are about 9 percent as many of these larger complexes as of complexes with less than 10 units, but these complexes undoubtedly comprise more total units than the smaller complexes. About 30 percent of these larger complexes are located in MiamiDade County, with about 13 percent each in Broward County and in the Tampa Bay MSA. The six major MSAs contain approximately 75 percent of all complexes of this type. The other MSAs contain 22 percent of the state total, with Volusia, Alachua, and Leon Counties having more than 300 complexes. The Alachua and Leon numbers reflect the concentration of college students in those communities. Non-MSA counties contain only 3 percent of the states stock of larger apartment complexes. The average age of these larger complexes is 29 years. Miami-Dade (35 years) and Broward (32 years) Counties have relatively old stocks of larger complexes. At 21 years, Orlando has the youngest stock of such complexes among the six major MSAs. There were 156 complexes of greater than 10 units constructed in 1998. About 66 percent of this construction occurred in the six major MSAs including over one half in the Tampa Bay and Orlando MSAs. Sales of existing complexes in this category totaled 616 in 1998, with over 27 percent in MiamiDade County and almost 77 percent in the major MSAs.3.5 Impact of Housing on the Florida EconomyThere are a number of ways in which the impact of housing on the Florida economy might be measured. For example, we might examine the number of jobs created in the construction and related industries, the payroll on those jobs, or the materials cost of a housing unit. We examine two simple measures. First, in 1998 there were 253,823 sales of single family housing units (new and existing). With an average sales price of over $100,000, these transactions total over $250 billion in sales. This figure is the basis from which transaction fees, transfer taxes, mortgage fees, purchases of new furnishings and equipment, and other expenditures flowing into the economy are generated. Second, the total value of the single family housing stock in the state was over $3.41trillion in 1998. This figure is the basis for property taxes as well as a measure of the wealth of households. The figure does not include condominiums, multifamily rental structures, or mobile homes.3.6 SummaryThe county property appraiser data provides a wealth of data on characteristics of the housing stock across the state. The county-by-county and MSA summaries clearly show differences in the importance of single-family properties, condominiums, and multifamily properties. Also apparent are differences across the state in the age and size of units. Finally, there are significant differences in the numbers of transactions each year and in the median values of properties. The differences show that the state might be characterized as two states Among metropolitan counties, Hernando has a mean age of 11 years for condominium units. The number of condominium sales in the state totaled 102,912 units in 1998. Of these almost one quarter occurred in Miami-Dade County, 19 percent in Palm Beach County, and over 14 percent in Broward County. These three southeast counties accounted for almost 60 percentof all condominium transactions in the state.In several counties, condominiums do not play the role of stepping stone to single-family home ownership that is sometimes ascribed to them, and there also is a wide range of median prices across counties. The median price of condominium units sold in the state in 1998 was $84,000. Counties with median prices above $100,000 were the $126,300 in Collier County, $108,700 in Franklin County, $115,000 in Gulf County, $115,000 in Lee County, $115,000 in Levy County, $159,000 in Monroe County, $130,950 in Nassau County, $106,000 in Palm Beach County, $109,000 in St. Johns County, and $115,000 in Sarasota County. These are coastal counties and, with a few exceptions are not part of major MSAs. The relatively high price of portions of the condominium stock in Florida appears to reflect the steep premium paid for the ocean accessibility that is an attribute of many condominiums in coastal settings.83.4 Multifamily HousingThe county property appraiser data used in this report do not allow an accounting for the number of units in multifamily rental structures, as only information on the structures (parcels) is reported. It is this information that is summarized below. We divide the multifamily stock, consistent with the appraiser data, into two categories: complexes with less than 10 units and complexes with 10 or more units. Exhibit 3.4 contains summary information on the states stock of multifamily properties containing fewer than 10 units. There are 150,000 multifamily properties that contain fewer than 10 units in the state of Florida. Approximately 69 percent of these are found in the six major metropolitan areas, with another 27 percent located in other metropolitan areas. Only about four percent of these small multifamily complexes are found in non-MSA counties. Over 21 percent of the units in this category are found in Miami-Dade County. Only ten of the 33 non-MSA counties have more than 100 such complexes, with Monroe having almost 43 percent of the non-MSA total. Other non-MSA counties with more than 100 units were Columbia, Citrus, Putnam, DeSoto, Hardee, Hendry, Highlands, Indian River, and Okeechobee Counties. These numbers again point to the differences that are observed in the urban, coastal counties and the rural, interior counties of Florida. Recognizing that condominium units are also likely found in multifamily structures, it is apparent that the housing stock in urban and coastal counties is the predominant setting for such structures while the rural and interior counties are characterized by a largely single-family housing stock. The mean age of multifamily complexes containing 9 or fewer units is 34 years for the state. Counties with the oldest average ages include Duval, Miami-Dade and Monroe. Counties with a relative age index of below 0.6 include Bay, Calhoun, Charlotte, Flagler, Gadsden, Gilchrist, Gulf, Hamilton, Hernando, Holmes, Jackson, Madison, Santa Rosa, Walton and Washington. The latter counties have either experienced recent growth or have little multifamily stock so that their average is impacted by one or a few projects. There are few sales of multifamily properties of less than 10 units relative to single-family units, as there were only 8 Data on the average size (square footage) of the condominium stock is not reported because of numerous problems and inconsistencies with the DOR data.30 31

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The State of FloridasHousing, 2000 words, prices in the state have increased by almost 75 percent over the 19-year period. This increase compares to an increase in the Consumer Price Index of roughly 100 percent over the same period. Thus over the period housing price appreciation has not kept pace with inflation on average in the state. Between 1980 and 1990, appreciation was over 37 percent. Since 1990 it has been only about 27 percent as appreciation rates slowed this decade in the face of high interest rates early in the decade and declines in the growth rate of the state. In the last years of the 1990s, appreciation rates were higher including an over five percent increase in the past year statewide. The highest appreciation rate among MSAs was in Naples, where the 1980 to 1999 index moved from one in 1980 to 2.05 in 1999. Other MSAs with appreciation rates above the state average for the 1980 to 1999 period include, in descending order, Panama City, Miami, Jacksonville, Sarasota, Orlando, and Fort Walton Beach. Several MSAs did not have sufficient data to calculate the index for 1999, but none likely would exceed the state average given their level in 1998.4.3 Housing AffordabilityThe affordability of housing is a major issue nationally, and it is no different in Florida. By some measures, affordability increased substantially towards the end of the last decade, primarily as a result of lower interest rates during that period. These results are generally conveyed by using indices. A housing affordability index for an area brings together the price and the income elements. The most common index construction method is that used by the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The NAR index measures the ability of the median income household in an area to afford a median priced house. In addition to the median income and median house price in an area, index construction requires the current mortgage interest rate, assumptions about the down payment required to purchase the median price home, and the maximum percentage of household income that can be spent on housing. An index of 100 indicates the typical (median) family in the area has sufficient income to purchase a singlefamily home selling at the median price. However, the use of indices focuses only on the average and masks what is happening at the low end. For households of lower income, the loss of affordable housing from the stock and price increases that have exceeded the growth in incomes, among other factors, have led to a worsening problem of housing affordability. As a means of examining the number of households with a housing affordability problem, we calculate a number called cost burden. This number is our estimate of the number of Florida households paying more than 30 percent of their income toward housing costs. The 30 percent figure corresponds to that used in federal housing programs. Our estimate is that in 1998 there were about 1.75 million households paying more than 30 percent of their income toward housing costs. By the year 2010, we project that number to increase to 2.1 million assuming no change in existing policies and programs. About 44 percent of all renter households are estimated to have a cost burden as compared to about 22 percent of owner households. Almost 30 percent of the cost burdened households have incomes below 30 percent of the respective median income for their county. Over 75 percent of the households with a cost burden have incomes below 80 percent of the county median for their county. About 17.5 percent of the cost burdened households reside in MiamiDade County. With 11.9 percent in Broward County and 7.3 percent in Palm Beach County, our estimate is that more B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B J J J J J J J J J J J JJ J J J J J J J 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 B Consumer Price Index J Housing Price Index 1980-2000IndexExhibit 4.1 Comparison of Housing Price Index in Florida and Consumer Price Index, 1980-2000when thinking about the housing market, with the large urban and coastal counties at one extreme and the small, rural inland counties at the other. Location, population size and density, and growth rates are among the obvious variables that are not included in this analysis but are reflected in the housing activity across counties. For example, rapidly growing counties have a newer housing stock on average, and coastalcounties have higher average property values. The property appraiser data used in this report is derived from a summary report prepared by county property appraisers for DOR. Because of this, there are limitations in the data resulting from a lack of uniformity in reporting through this particular format. Some counties, for example, do not report certain variables, such as square footage or sales prices over time. An attempt has been made in this chapter to constrain certain data elements in order to achieve full reporting of data to allow comparisons across counties; this result was not always possible.4. Housing Prices and Affordability4.1 IntroductionThe affordability of housing is an important issue nationally and in the state of Florida. Households are concerned about it because affordability affects their ability to become a homeowner, as well as the size and quality of the home they are able to purchase. Real estate salespersons and other industry participants also are concerned, because the number of households able to afford the purchase of a home is an important determinant of single-family sales activity in their local markets. Housing affordability also has become an important public policy issue, as home ownership is viewed as being an important goal for both individual and societal reasons. Home ownership entails an assumption of responsibility on the part of the owner and creates equity and control. Many believe that society benefits because homeowners are more active and connected citizens. To encourage home ownership, the state of Florida has undertaken several initiatives, the most prominent of which is the State Housing Initiatives Partnership (SHIP) program. Local governments also are making efforts to address home ownership barriers and the President of the United States announced several years ago an initiative to expand home ownership called The National Home Ownership Strategy. Efforts to expand home ownership include regulatory reform, tax incentives, subsidies, and alternative mortgage instruments. However, to properly intervene in the public policy debate, and to determine the types of programs that are necessary, it is important to understand the magnitude of the affordability problem and the locations of greatest need. Three factors are the primary determinants of the affordability of housing. These are household income, housing prices, and mortgage rates. For a household considering homeownership, an additional factor is the rate of appreciation in housing prices. This chapter begins with a discussion of historic appreciation rates for single family housing. It then investigates issues of housing affordability using a concept called cost burden.4.2 Housing AppreciationDr. Dean Gatzlaff at Florida State University prepares the Gatzlaff Index of Housing Prices in Florida These indices are calculated for each of Floridas Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) as data are available, and use a repeat sales methodology to track changes in housing prices over time. For the state, the index has been calculated from 1980 to 1999 and shows that house prices have increased over that period from a level of one in 1980 to 1.73985 in 1999. In other32 33

PAGE 19

The State of FloridasHousing, 2000 than one-third, 36.7 percent, of cost burdened households are located in the three south Florida counties. An additional 13.3 percent of the states cost burdened households are in Pinellas and Hillsborough Counties in the Tampa Bay metropolitan area, so that a total of 50 percent of Floridas households experiencing cost burden are located in five counties.5. ConclusionFloridas population is expected to continue to increase, with the number of households increasing by about one million over the next decade, creating a corresponding need for additional housing units. Most households in the state are homeowners, as the homeownership rate in the state has risen to over 70 percent. The rate of homeownership has increased in part as a result of the aging of the Baby Boom generation; as households become older they are more likely to become homeowners. Housing prices in Florida are generally below national averages, yet the greatest housing problem in the state is housing affordability. Indices of affordability show that on average the affordability of housing has improved in the state in recent years. However, an affordability index masks the problems that households with incomes below the median income have in obtaining suitable housing without paying more than 30 percent of income toward housing costs. Whether the 30 percent of income standard is an appropriate criteria, whether some households pay more than 30 percent of their income as a conscious choice to overinvest in housing, and other issues indicate that it is difficult to derive a single number of housing need. However, it is clear that there is a substantial need in Florida. The affordability calculations also indicate that the most severe needs are for households with incomes below 30 percent of median income. This is a group that is difficult to reach with state programs, but one that becomes even more vulnerable with changes in the federal public housing program. While housing affordability is a problem in Florida, substandard housing is less pervasive. In part, this is a reflection of a relatively young housing stock in Florida that has been built in response to the recent rapid growth of the state. There are, however, areas of older housing stock in the state that are in need of rehabilitation and the aging of the existing housing stock will lead to additional needs for rehabilitation in the coming years. Florida is dominated by single family housing, and this type of housing (including manufactured housing) is particularly dominant in nonmetropolitan counties. Condominiums are largely concentrated in a few coastal counties.34


PRIVATE ITEM
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State of Florida's Housing
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 Material Information
Title: State of Florida's Housing
Physical Description: Serial
Language: English
Creator: Shimberg Center for Affordable Housing
Publisher: Shimberg Center for Affordable Housing
Place of Publication: Gainesville, Fla.
Publication Date: 2000
Copyright Date: 2010
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Holding Location: University of Florida
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The State of Florida's

Housing,
presented by


William O'Dell, Manager
Florida Housing Database


and
Marc T. Smith, Ph.D., Associate Director
Shimberg Center for Affordable Housing


2000


The Complete Report ~;~













The State of Florida's


Housing, 2000

Contents Page

1.0 Introdu action ........................................ ...................... . . ............. 2

2.0 Florida's H housing Demand ............ ............................ ..................... 2
2.1 Introdu action ........................................ ...................... . . ............. 2
2.2 Changing Character of H households .................................. ............ ...... 3
2.3 State Sum m ary ................... ........................................ ........................ 4
2.4 Metropolitan Area and County Comparisons........................................ 6
2.5 Locational Trends ................... ........ .................... ......................... 8
2.6 Sum m ary .................................................... ............ 8

3.0 Florida's H housing Supply .......................... .................. .................. 9
3 .1 D ata D description ...................................................... .... .............. 9
3.2 Single-Fam ily H housing ................... ................................ ................... 10
3.3 C ondom inium s .................................................... .................... .......... 17
3.4 Multifamily Housing .............................................. 30
3.5 Impact of Housing on the Florida Economy ........................................ 31
3.6 Sum m ary ....................... ..................... ........... ......... ............ 31

4.0 Housing Prices and Affordability ............................ ............... 32
4.1 Introduction .... ......................................... .................................. 32
4.2 H housing A appreciation ............................................. .................. 32
4.3 H housing Affordability ............................................. .................. 33
5.0 C conclusion ......................................... .................... ................. 34

Exhibits

2.1 State Summary -Florida Housing Demand ........................................ 4-5
2.2 State of Florida Population and Household Projections ........................... 6
2.3 State of Florida Households by Age -1998 ............................................ 6
2.4 State of Florida Households by Size -1998 ............................................ 7
2.5 State of Florida Households by Income -1998 ...................................... 9

3.1 Year Structure Built -Florida................... ................................. 10
3.2 Single-Family Housing Stock .................................................. 1215
3.3 Condominium Housing Stock ......................... ............... 18-21
3.4 Multi-Family Housing Stock with Two to Nine Units in Complex .... 22-25
3.5 Multi-Family Housing Stock with Ten or more Units in Complex ..... 2629

4.1 Comparison of Housing Price Index in Florida and
Consumer Price Index, 1980-2000 .......................... ............... 33









1. Introduction1


Florida is a state of contrasts, and those
contrasts are no where more apparent
than in housing. The population of the
state is growing, creating a demand for
additional housing, yet that growth is not
distributed uniformly across the state. In
addition, growth is not distributed evenly
across age categories, and the age
structure of the population has
implications for the type of housing
needed. A majority of households are
homeowners, but rental housing is
needed to meet the needs of young and
lower income households. It is a state in
which single-family housing units
dominate, but condominiums are an
important source of housing in some
coastal counties and mobile homes play
a key role in rural counties in the interior
of the state. Housing prices have been
increasing in the state, but not as much
as might be expected. Affordability
indices indicate that housing in the state
is affordable, but the indices mask
affordability problems for those in lower
income categories. Finally, it is a state in
which much housing has been built in
recent years but the aging of portions of
the stock require attention to the need
for rehabilitation.
This study is an unprecedented
assemblage of facts about how Floridians
are housed. The data and descriptions
included in the report bring into focus
panoramas of the stock of housing
available to Floridians, of their need and
demand for housing, of housing
transactions and prices in Florida, and
of the ability of Floridians to afford
housing. When any grand vista becomes
clearer, it brings additional perspectives
and insights to the viewer. Such is the
expectation with this study. It will enable
thoughtful viewers to understand anew
the diversity, the needs, the public policy


concerns, and the opportunities of
Florida's many housing markets.
The pages that follow introduce the
variety of information assembled. The
data highlight the tremendous diversity
in housing characteristics across the state,
particularly between the 34 urban
counties and the 33 rural counties, as well
as between coastal and non-coastal
counties. Additional data show the
projected growth in Florida's population,
and in the demand for housing units.
The picture revealed is of continued
growth at a strong pace through the year
2010. The data also show that, relative
to other areas of the country, housing
prices in Florida are low. However, this
is far from universal. Moreover, Florida's
advantage in house prices often tends to
be offset by correspondingly low income
levels, resulting in housing affordability
problems for a substantial portion of the
population of the state.
This document first discusses
demographic patterns in the state and the
need for housing. Second, it details
characteristics of the housing stock in the
state. Third, it discusses the movement
in house prices and the rate of
appreciation in housing. Finally, it
discusses issues in the affordability of
housing in the state.


2. Florida's Housing

Demand


2.1 Introduction

There have been predictions in the
past that the rate of household growth
would decline substantially through the
year 2010, resulting in declining house
prices and decreased housing starts in
many parts of the country. These
predictions are based on the widely
discussed aging of the Baby Boom
population, combined with the smaller


Partial funding for the State of Florida's Housing 2000 was provided by the Florida Association of Realtors








population of the "Baby Bust" generation
which is now moving into the prime
household forming years. Although the
numbers of new households forming will
be lower than in earlier periods, The State
of the Nation's Housing 2000 (Harvard
University Joint Center for Housing
Studies, page 10) projects that household
formations will occur through the next
decade at a rate of just under 1.2 million
households per year, only slightly less
than the annual increase in the last
decade. In part, this prediction reflects
the Baby Boom echo generation
(children of the Baby Boom) reaching
household forming years. Immigration
and the growth in minority households
are also factors in household growth.
The characteristics of households will
change over the period to 2010, as the
Baby Boom population matures.
Nationally, the strongest household
growth will be in the 45-54 and 55-64
age groups. The number of households
aged 35-44 will drop, while the 25-34
age group will see an increase in
households as the Baby Boom echo
population ages. The aging of the Baby
Boom population also will result in more
empty nest" households.
How do these national projections
compare to Florida? To examine the
demand for housing in the state of
Florida and its counties, a methodology
was developed that combines 1990 U.S.
Census data on population and
household characteristics, with county
level population estimates and
projections developed by the University
of Florida's Bureau of Economic and
Business Research (BEBR).


2.2 Changing Character of

Households

The fundamental unit of analysis in
housing markets is households, as


households are virtually the same thing
as occupied housing units. When looking
at households and household formation
rates, we are actually looking at housing
demand. We project that by 2010 there
will be a little over 7 million households
in Florida. Starting in 2000 and
projecting out to 2010, we see a need for
approximately 1 million housing units
in order to meet the demographic
demand.
Looking at the characteristics of the
households will give a clue about the type
of housing that will be needed. Consider,
first, the age of the households. We watch
the under-35 age group since it represents
those people that are just entering the
home buying market; they make up a
large portion of the first-time
homebuyers. Recently, this segment of
the population has been comprised of
what some people refer to as the "Baby
Bust" group because it is relatively small
compared to its predecessor, the Baby
Boom group, and it represents the aging
of the babies born during a period of
reduced birth rates. However, coming on
the heels of the Baby Bust is the "Baby
Boom Echo", which is a large population
group that is just beginning to enter the
prime household formation age range.
We also watch the households in the
over-65 age group. In 1998 about 30
percent of the households in Florida were
in this grouping. Projections for 2000
show the beginning of the anticipated
increase in numbers in the under-35
group as well as the continued growth of
the over-65 age groups.
We also look at household income
because of its obvious impact on housing
demand. Our numbers are based on
constant 1990 dollars but we can adjust
to current dollars by multiplying by
about 1.5. We find that the largest
household income group lies in the
$10,000-$20,000 category. Adjusting to










current dollars indicates that the largest

household income group today ranges up

to about $30,000. So, while we have had

boom markets and we know how healthy

the housing markets have been, we

continue to have in Florida a substantial

segment of the population that is in the

lower income categories. We need to

continue to think about how we can

provide housing for these households.

An important characteristic of

households is their housing tenure:

owner households and renter households.

Ownership rates are higher in the older

age groups and, of course, in the higher

income groups. Overall, homeownership

stands at about 70 percent in Florida.

This percentage is slightly above the

national average. Renter households are

dominated by the younger age groups

and by the lower income groups. The

tenure characteristic indicates that while

we promote homeownership, we also

need to focus house design, location and

amenities on the younger, renter

households as that segment grows over

the next decade.


Total Population
Institutional Population
Households
Householders by Age
15-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65-74
75+
Households by Income
0-10k
10-20k
20-30k
30-40k
40-50k
50-60k
60-75k
75-100k
100-125k
125-150k
150k+
Households by Size
1 person
2 persons
3 persons
4 persons
5 persons
6 persons
7+ persons


1990
12,936,086
141,675
5,134,869

258,204
976,502
977,174
725,561
718,464
834,554
644,410

775,560
1,032,371
965,519
760,313
536,356
353,667
306,795
209,795
81,933
36,482
79,569

1,300,064
1,935,187
818,060
637,903
283,803
100,445
62,898


1998
15,000,475
170,359
6,019,707

281,298
916,878
1,213,239
1,065,265
812,808
880,598
849,621

903,432
1,198,114
1,113,811
881,787
627,481
419,897
370,058
255,602
99,775
44,435
96,259

1,512,978
2,260,193
960,147
751,109
334,336
118,324
73,468


Household size is another important

factor that must be considered when

looking at the housing of the future.

Through the mid-1980s there was a

decline in average household size.

Historically, we thought of a household

as comprising four persons (i.e., two

adults and two children). This average

has dropped and leveled off just below

three persons. Our 1998 data show that

the two-person household was the

dominant category in Florida. This

finding is not surprising given Florida's

large retired population and the younger

population coming into the state.



2.3 State Summary


A state summary and a summary of

several key indicators are found in

Exhibits 2.1 through 2.5. For the state,

the total number of households is shown

in Exhibit 2.1 and is projected to increase

by 1,138,416 households, or 18 percent,

between 2000 and 2010. This increase

from 6,253,326 to 7,391,742

households, depicted graphically in


Exhibit 2.1

al


,Tota


2000
15,524,500
187,031
6,253,326

292,346
895,993
1,257,872
1,156,086
864,830
878,549
907,650

935,461
1,240,939
1,152,525
913,985
651,982
437,995
387,287
268,281
104,624
46,682
101,027

1,566,970
2,352,928
997,887
777,882
346,217
122,667
76,299


2005
16,773,400
194,872
6,824,490

328,465
897,936
1,214,932
1,351,059
1,107,137
908,760
1,016,201

1,020,075
1,352,212
1,251,969
992,172
708,346
477,820
425,081
296,706
116,268
51,623
111,937

1,706,928
2,616,520
1,083,518
821,579
364,334
129,722
81,555


2010
17,942,300
200,429
7,391,742

353,876
961,691
1,124,580
1,460,488
1,360,274
1,062,401
1,068,432

1,104,968
1,470,942
1,359,210
1,071,605
762,713
513,653
457,025
320,389
126,215
55,788
121,392

1,849,232
2,903,808
1,160,125
853,530
376,838
134,676
85,579


1990 1998


3,452,160

50,191
439,563
628,001
536,667
586,935
706,892
503,911

388,923
608,325
622,800
542,038
417,158
291,935
264,577
187,516
74,526
33,578
74,140

763,904
1,444,765
554,793
449,709
190,735
64,254
37,356


Exhibit 2.2, is almost 10 percent of the

projected national increase over the 2000

to 2010 time period. Exhibit 2.3 displays

the distribution of households among the

various age categories in 2000. Note that

in 2000, the 45-54 and 55-64 age groups

contained approximately 2 million

households, or about 32 percent of

Florida's total. The largest growth in

households over the 2000-2010 time

period will occur in these two age groups,

reflecting the aging of the Baby Boom

population over the projection period. In

fact, an increase of about 800,000

households is expected in the 45-64 age

group. This surge will increase the

percentage of all Florida households in

this age range from 32 percent in 2000

to over 38 percent in 2010. In addition,

the continuing influx of retirees into the

state, as well as the aging of the existing

population, is expected to result in over

345,000 more households in the over

65 age category. However, because this

age group encompasses those born in the

Depression years, when births were

significantly lower than before or after


Florida Housing Demand
- Owners


4,122,698

54,771
414,010
780,838
790,487
665,517
746,871
670,204

462,579
715,458
725,397
631,937
489,204
347,167
319,089
228,443
90,563
40,750
89,382

896,241
1,698,717
660,489
535,844
227,903
76,564
44,119


that period, this 345,000 increase will

only be sufficient to maintain the over

65 age group's percentage of total

households at its 2000 level (28.6

percent in 2000, 28.8 percent in 2010).

Florida is predominately a home

ownership state. For the state as a whole,

the home ownership rate was estimated

by the authors, based on 1990

homeownership rates by age, to be 68.8

percent in 2000, and is projected to

increase to 70 percent by the year 2010.

Nationally, the home ownership rate was

66.8 percent in 1999.2 Home ownership

rates, as expected, increase with the age

of householder and with household

income. For householders aged 15-24,

the home ownership rate is 19.5 percent

in 2000. The rate is 45.2 percent for

householders aged 25-34. In the older

age categories, home ownership

dominates renting, as the home

ownership rate is 81.9 percent in the 55

64 age group, 84.8 percent in the 65-74

age group, and 79.0 percent in the 75

and over age group.


Renters


2000 2005 2010 1990 1998 2000


4,300,277

56,875
404,874
809,676
858,143
708,574
745,249
716,886

483,486
746,038
755,020
657,776
509,764
362,907
334,406
240,026
95,007
42,823
93,807

934,203
1,775,638
690,525
557,472
237,269
79,849
46,137


4,739,727

63,845
406,518
782,303
1,003,442
908,605
771,269
803,745

537,970
827,987
833,965
722,813
558,415
398,516
368,665
266,322
105,820
47,474
103,953

1,032,558
1,998,288
760,261
593,184
252,101
85,421
50,157


5,179,377

68,656
435,559
724,722
1,085,102
1,117,148
902,753
845,437

593,278
917,807
920,651
789,533
605,477
430,588
397,763
288,340
115,118
51,413
112,785

1,133,932
2,244,649
821,889
617,936
261,792
89,270
53,225


1,682,709

208,013
536,939
349,173
188,894
131,529
127,662
140,499

386,637
424,046
342,719
218,275
119,198
61,732
42,218
22,279
7,407
2,904
5,429

536,160
490,422
263,267
188,194
93,068
36,191
25,542


1,897,009

226,527
502,868
432,401
274,778
147,291
133,727
179,417

440,853
482,656
388,414
249,850
138,277
72,730
50,969
27,159
9,212
3,685
6,877

616,737
561,476
299,658
215,265
106,433
41,760
29,349


s
2005 2010


1,953,049

235,471
491,119
448,196
297,943
156,256
133,300
190,764

451,975
494,901
397,505
256,209
142,218
75,088
52,881
28,255
9,617
3,859
7,220

632,767
577,290
307,362
220,410
108,948
42,818
30,162


2,084,763

264,620
491,418
432,629
347,617
198,532
137,491
212,456

482,105
524,225
418,004
269,359
149,931
79,304
56,416
30,384
10,448
4,149
7,984

674,370
618,232
323,257
228,395
112,233
44,301
31,398


2,212,365

285,220
526,132
399,858
375,386
243,126
159,648
222,995

511,690
553,135
438,559
282,072
157,236
83,065
59,262
32,049
11,097
4,375
8,607

715,300
659,159
338,236
235,594
115,046
45,406
32,354


Source is The State of the Nation's Housing, 2000, page 2.









iiExhibit 2.2 State of1111 percent of all

SPopulation Ia.i I-, people, and that
p1 I I. ii i, I toincrease tohe 39.3
p 1I% 211111 -. 1 he second highest
.i. iI. -I I. I. I i. I olds by size ios one
Ii = I..= I 'I N. which constiitute
























.....:ifE.".." .:" ifE" : ": .:ifE. . across tim e. In
-III 20i I' 43 all households in
~III 31 iiiid (l.ioFcted) 2010. The
i-: .i d-ii ii of households by
I" I "'Is 11 .Ii i h.I-ayed graphically in


SI~ii~ Ii~II ii w distributions are
Iii, 1 I 'ii. *)hme levels constant
in 1990 dollars.
Exhibit 2.2 State of Florida This technique
Population and Household Projections removes the

effects of
inflation from
the income
I'll projections and
Facilitates
J1, comparisons
across time. In
2000, 43.5
1:::.- ,percent of


households
have incomes
!!!!!. I'*' ii $iiiiiiZ 1 11111 $50,000 in 1990
iii I~ ,I dI iI 5). Usingthe rough
ii II 'loiii, 'ii in affordable house
IPI k i Iii '0-1i and one-halftimes
1-11N. 1-1.1 iii this income level
,ii 1 i.- iu-i.li de house prices of
in1~~~ i ,111111 and $125,000.
I ii1I, percent annual


,, ,lI' $I'. i.$168,000in2000
III .11. I I i ii I ,,e ownership rates
11.2'~ I 1.7 i i~nt, for households
i~!111 i '. .'. iiii1l. $10,000, to 93
i i I -i1.. I 1. .is with incomes of


Exhibit 2.3 State of Florida
Householders by Age 1998
15-24
75+ i o^


65-74


35-44


2.4 MSA and County

Comparisons

Examination of age distributions,
home ownership rates, and median
household incomes for metropolitan
areas3 and individual counties reveals
wide variation across the state. These
differences reflect the mix of urban and
rural counties in the state as well as the
dominance of retirement populations in
several coastal counties. Differences in
the nature and timing of growth, and the
presence of major research universities in
two counties, also are factors.
Metropolitan area comparisons show
that ownership rates range from a low of
about 55 percent in the Gainesville
(Alachua County and the University of
Florida) and Miami metropolitan areas
to a high of 79 percent in Punta Gorda
(Charlotte County). Home ownership
rates are higher in several of the
nonmetropolitan counties: 82 percent in
the Central Counties; 80 percent in the
Northwest Counties; and 79 percent in
the Northeast Counties. Among
individual counties, the highest home
ownership rate is 86 percent in Gilchrist


I i i I 1.1 i Statistical Area, a Bureau of Census term for larger American cities (population of
*. 1,,1 .... I ... I in Florida and most states, as one or more whole counties. In Florida 34 counties
I. I ler to these 34 as metropolitan counties. In this report we also aggregate the remaining
.. ..... ... .. four non-metropolitan areas: Northwest, Northeast, Central and South.








County. In addition to Gilchrist,
counties with ownership rates equal to
or above 80 percent are predominately
other non-metropolitan counties
including Baker, Calhoun, Citrus, Dixie,
Franklin, Holmes, Lafayette, Levy,
Liberty, Putnam, Sumter, Suwanee,
Wakulla, Walton, and Washington.
Three metropolitan counties, in addition
to Charlotte, also have home ownership
rates equal to or above 80 percent:
Hernando, Nassau, and Pasco.
Hernando and Pasco Counties are in the
Tampa Bay metropolitan area, while
Nassau County is in the Jacksonville MSA.
The large rental stock in Alachua
County is not surprising given the
presence of the University of Florida.
The rental percentage is high in Miami
Dade County (Miami metropolitan
area), a major urban county, and Leon
County (Tallahassee metropolitan area),
which is the seat of state government and
the location of Florida State University
and Florida A & M University. High
home ownership rates in rural counties
are the result of lower turnover, lower
population growth rates, the relatively
older age distribution of the population,
and the relatively low housing prices in
these counties. Of the 67 counties in
Florida, 39 have less than 25 percent of
their housing stock in rental usage. With
a national rate of owner occupancy of just
about 67 percent, most counties in
Florida are considerably above the
national average.
Examination of the number of
householders aged 45-64 in 2000 reveals
little variation from the statewide
percentage. The low in metropolitan
counties is in Alachua County, with 24.8
percent of householders, the highest
metropolitan county is Nassau at 39.1
percent, and the highest
nonmetropolitan county is Franklin
County at 42.2 percent. Following the
state trend, by 2010 all counties are


projected to experience considerable
growth in the number of householders
in the 45-64 age range. The growth in
the 45-64 age category is due primarily
to the aging of the Baby Boom
population. However, it masks
differences across counties in age
distributions. A number of counties are
very attractive to retirement populations
and therefore have large percentages of
their householders in the over 65 age
group. These counties include Charlotte,
Citrus, Flagler, Hernando, Highlands,
Indian River, Lake, Martin, Pasco, and
Sarasota. Other counties, particularly
Alachua and Leon, with the presence of
large universities, attract a younger
average population.
Income patterns, not surprisingly,
follow the urban and rural characteristics
of the state. Examination of the
percentage of households in 2000 with
incomes below $20,000 (1990 dollars)
reveals that several counties have 50
percent or more of their households
below that threshold. These counties are
all nonmetropolitan and include
Calhoun, Dixie, Franklin, Hamilton,
Holmes, Jackson, Levy, Madison,
Putnam,
S umter ,
Ex
Suwanee, and Ho
Washington.
Amon2,500,000

metropolitan 2,000,000-
areas, the
0 1,500,000
largest 1,
percentage of 1,000,000
households
with incomes 500,000-
below
$20,000 is 1 person 2perso
found in
Gainesville,
with 46
percent of households below that level.
Gainesville's numbers clearly reflect a
high concentration of student


hibit 2.4 State of Florida
useholds by Size 1998


C
3,
3,
I II


ns 3 ,: - i


HOLI -i- I-ii-iliJ -0 .-,.i-i -








households. The lowest concentration
of households with incomes below
$20,000 is in the Naples MSA (Collier
County), with only 26 percent of
households below $20,000 in income
(1990 dollars). Other counties with low
percentages of households with incomes
below $20,000 are Clay (Jacksonville
MSA), Martin (Ft. Pierce-Port St. Lucie
MSA), Palm Beach (West Palm Beach
Boca Raton MSA) and Seminole
(Orlando MSA).
Across metropolitan areas, the largest
projected increase in households is in the
Naples MSA (Collier County), with a
projected percentage increase of 32
percent between 2000 and 2010. Among
individual counties, the largest projected
increase is in Flagler County (Daytona
Beach MSA), where the number of
households is projected to increase by 43
percent by 2010. Other counties
projected to experience a 30 percent or
more increase in house-holds include
Collier (Naples MSA), Gilchrist, Liberty,
Osceola (Orlando MSA), Santa Rosa
(Pensacola MSA), St. Johns (Jacksonville
MSA), Sumter, Wakulla and Walton. Of
course, several of these counties start
from low bases in the number of
households, so the large percentage
increases may not actually represent large
numbers of households. Counties with
percentage household increases below 10
percent include Hardee, Pinellas (Tampa
St. Petersburg-Clearwater MSA), and
Taylor. These latter counties are either
rural counties or large counties reaching
build-out. The largest numbers of
households, in absolute terms, will be
added in several already large, urban
counties including Broward, Miami
Dade, Orange, and Palm Beach.


2.5 Locational Trends

The macro features of the population
movement in Florida continued a
southward shift for a number of years and


then, more recently, has turned
northward. In our work with local
jurisdictions, one of the major concerns,
particularly in the south, is called "build
out." Build-out is the condition where
there simply is no more land available
on which to build homes. The shortage
of land also creates concern for the price
of the limited supply. We believe that
these concerns are harbingers of Florida
following the national trend toward a
movement to smaller, outlying
jurisdictions. Of course, the full impact
of this trend will have to be balanced to
some degree by growth management in
the state, any changes that may be made
to the growth management act, and the
effort to encourage higher density
development. Although the state's
growth has been concentrated primarily
in and around the six major metropolitan
areas and generally in the southern
portion of the state, we may be seeing
other parts of the state experience more
rapid growth. This change is particularly
true for the over-65 group that has come
to Florida to get away from the
congestion that is emerging in Florida's
densely populated urban areas.


2.6 Summary

Florida will continue to grow rapidly
through the 2000-2010 projection
period. To accommodate that growth,
the housing stock will need to expand
substantially. With a projected increase
of over 1.1 million households by the
year 2010, together with a need to
replace units removed from the housing
stock, we estimate that between 1.2
million and 1.4 million housing units
will need to be added to Florida's housing
stock by the year 2010. As the
population ages, the demand for owner
(versus renter) occupancy will increase
in a state that already has a high
percentage of home ownership relative
to the national average. The substantial








growth in households over age 45 also
creates a demand for housing units that
meets the needs of these older households
that have, on average, higher incomes and
fewer or no children living at home.
Counties that are projected to be
locations experiencing the most rapid
growth are coastal and metropolitan areas.


3. Florida's Housing

Supply


3.1 Data Description

An understanding of the current stock
of housing by county, by type, and by
price range is a prerequisite to
understanding the dynamics of Florida's
housing markets. However, the paucity
of accessible housing information has
long been a concern in both academic
and business circles. In the past, the only
comprehensive, county level data on
housing in Florida were from the U.S.
Census. But, the Census data quickly
become dated because the Census is only
conducted once a decade.4 The Census
also is subject to inaccuracies in
evaluating housing unit characteristics
because it relies on the evaluation of the
occupants for estimates of numerous
variables such as property value and age.
This section opens up a vast new
source of comprehensive data for
characterizing and analyzing the housing
stock of Florida. We start with a
foundation of Department of Revenue
(DOR) data obtained from the 67
county property appraisers. This
database contains information on every
parcel of land and every structure in
Florida. Thus, it contains immense detail
on Florida's housing markets, including:
parcel identification; land use code


(vacant residential, single family,
condominium, etc.); total assessed value;
assessed land value; year in which
structure was built; square footage of the
structure; parcel size; date and price of
the two most recent
sales; ad valorem
tax jurisdiction; Exhibit 2.5 State of Florida
Household Income 1998
homestead 1400000
exemption; and
1200000
location of the
1000000
property by 0
800000
section, township,
and range. 600000
Although gaps and 400000
limitations still 200000
exist in these DOR
data sets, they
nevertheless
provide e
information on
Florida's housing
stock that is not otherwise available.
Florida's housing stock includes single-
family units, multifamily units, and
mobile or manufactured units. Although
all three types of housing units are
represented, the housing inventory is
dominated by the single family home.
About 60 percent of the state's housing
stock is located in six major metropolitan
areas: Fort Lauderdale, Jacksonville,
Miami, Orlando, Tampa St. Petersburg,
and West Palm Beach Boca Raton. Fort
Lauderdale and Miami, because of their
density, also have the distinction of
having the most multifamily housing of
any other area in the state. Although not
a type of structure, condominium
housing is an important housing category
in some areas of the state. Seventy eight
percent of all condominium housing in
the state is located in seven counties.
Broward, Miami Dade, and Palm Beach


In the National Association of Realtors (NAR) Home Sales, the median sale price of existing single-family homes,
condos, and co-ops sold in each quarter are reported for the nine largest metropolitan areas in Florida. In addi
tion, the Florida Association of Realtors (FAR) produces the Florida Home Sales Report which contains informa
tion on monthly sales volume and median sale prices for the 20 major metropolitan areas. While valuable, the
NAR and FAR reports do not contain information on characteristics other than sale price and volume, and in
addition are based only on MLS sales. Moreover, numerous counties are excluded.









Exhibit 3.1 Yearties alone have 60 percent of the


ies are Collier, Lee, Pinellas, and
.. f .)t .a. Clearly condominiums tend to
I I coastall phenomenon. By contrast,
I:- i *- le or manufactured house thins
i 11. ly a rural, inland phenomenon.
I -!I tally, an important characteristic of
III I \isting housing stock is its age. We
\ In ine the extent to which the age of
Ih. Ni ock exceeds 40 years. The forty
.11 inark is considered by some as the
d nat which rehabilitation and
remodeling are commonly
Exhibit 31 Year Structure Built Florida considered. Since much of

Florida's housing stock was built
II '.i I from the 1950s forward, the
f "housing industry needs to think
Sin terms of meeting the coming
demand for rehabilitation and
remodeling. Jacksonville and
Miami are two metropolitan
areas with older housing stocks
that need to have serious
Consideration given to the
Rehabilitation market.
Metropolilan Slalislical Areas The following section
describes the existing single
I ililey housing stock in Florida.
I% lr-quents sections provide detailed
I--i e nation on the condominium
1,, 11 ket and the multifamily housing
I 1et. Although mobile homes
I 'lt for a significant portion of
I. ntial housing units in many rural
Slliles, we are unable to describe and
Ii. 'iss Florida's mobile home stock
I .' Ise accurate data are not available.
..ii ate data on manufactured housing
(I I I.I '[ile homes) is difficult to obtain for
1 reasons. First, a mobile home is
led as real property if the owner
i.- both the home and the lot. It is
I. *. homes that are included in the


property appraiser files. Other mobile
homes, perhaps the larger share of them,
are located on rented sites and carry a
tag from the Division of Motor Vehicles.
Further, even combining these sources
results in data that are not consistent
from year to year. In addition to
reporting problems, possible causes of
inconsistencies include units not counted
because of confusion about their status,
failure to renew a tag, units placed on
land and not reported to the appraiser,
or uncertainty about the location of the
unit (i.e. in a city or in the
unincorporated portion of a county).


3.2 Single-Family Housing

Summary data by county, with
aggregations to metropolitan and state
totals are included in Exhibit 3.2 (if the
data were not available on the county
property appraiser files for a county, an
"N/A" is placed on the table).
The single family housing stock of
Florida totals 3,607,702 units and the
total assessed value of these units is
$341.1 billion. Seventy seven percent of
these units are occupied by their owner,
the remainder are renter occupied. The
mean age of housing units in the state is
24 years, and the average size is 1,874
square feet. The number of single family
sales in 1998 totaled approximately
253,823, which is equal to approximately
7 percent of the total housing stock in
this state.5 The median price of a 1998
sale was $105,000. This is lower than
both the 1998 new median house price
in the U.S. of $152,500 and the 1998
existing house price of $128,400.6
Florida's housing is geographically
concentrated. The state's 20
metropolitan areas (MSAs) are divided


I I. ,umber of sales depends on what classes of transactions are regarded as qualified sales. For example, the total
i" I sd here excludes sales that were not arms-length.
I Durces for these national prices are: new single family U.S. Census Bureau, Survey of Construction/Housing
i Survey; existing single family -National Association of Realtors, Existing Home Sales Survey.








into "major" metropolitan areas (6
MSAs) and "other" metropolitan areas
(14 MSAs). The major MSAs include
Ft. Lauderdale, Miami, Jacksonville,
Orlando, West Palm Beach-Boca Raton,
and Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater. A
total of fifteen counties are in major
MSAs. The 14 other MSAs include
nineteen counties. A total of 34 of
Florida's 67 counties are therefore found
in metropolitan areas, with the remaining
33 being non-metropolitan.7
These remaining 33 counties are
further categorized, as shown in the
exhibits, into four regional groups:
Northwest, Northeast, Central, and
South, according to categories used by
the University of Florida's Bureau of
Economic and Business Research.
The totals and means for the state
reported above allow for the
determination of the standing of counties
and metropolitan areas relative to the
state, and for comparisons across counties
and metropolitan areas. The six major
MSAs contain over two million single
family units and these units comprise
about 59 percent of the total housing
stock in the state. Over one-quarter of
the major MSA total, comprising almost
17 percent of the state is found in the
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater MSA
(which we will refer to as Tampa Bay).
The Orlando MSA has approximately 11
percent of the state's single-family stock,
and the Miami MSA and the Ft.
Lauderdale MSA about 9 percent each.
Of single county MSAs, Miami and Ft.
Lauderdale have the largest numbers of
single-family housing units in the state.
Together, these two counties contain over
17 percent of the state's single-family
units. Adding Palm Beach County



7 Multiple county MSAs are as follows: DE .. I 1. I


results in almost 23 percent of the state's
single-family stock being located in the
these three southeast Florida counties.
The 14 other MSAs contain
approximately 34 percent of the state's
single-family housing stock, while the 33
non-metropolitan counties contain only
7 percent. The non-metropolitan
counties show the extremes of population
densities in the state. For example,
Lafayette County has fewer than 1,000
single-family units. Other counties with
less than 3,000 units include Baker,
Calhoun, Dixie, Gilchrist, Glades,
Hamilton, Jefferson, Liberty, Madison,
Suwannee, and Union Counties. These
13 counties combined have only about
one-half of one percent of the total single
family housing units in the state.
The total assessed value of single
family units in the state shows a similar
pattern. The total assessed value of single
family units in the state is approximately
$341.1 billion and about 62 percent of
that total is found in the major MSAs.
The three southeast Florida counties
Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm
Beach-have about 30 percent of the
total assessed value. The average assessed
value of a single-family housing unit in
Florida is about $94,540.
A relative age index is constructed to
compare the average age of housing units
in a county or MSA to the state total.
Counties or MSAs with an older housing
stock than Florida's average have a relative
age index greater than one. Areas with a
relatively young stock have an index less
than one. The housing stock in the major
MSAs is slightly older than the state
average, as the relative age index is 1.03
and the average age is 25 years (rounded)
as compared to the state's 24 year average.



... I : .I .. i Volusia Counties. Ft. Pierce-Port


St. Lucie MSA includes Martin and St. Lucie Counties. Jacksonville MSA includes Clay, Duval, Nassau and St.
Johns Counties. Orlando MSA includes Lake, Orange, Osceola and Seminole Counties. Pensacola MSA in
cludes Escambia and Santa Rosa Counties. Sarasota Bradenton MSA includes Manatee and Sarasota Counties.
Tallahassee MSA includes Gadsden and Leon Counties. Tampa-St. I' I i .... Clearwater MSA includes Hemando,
Hillsborough, Pasco and Pinellas Counties.












Exhibit 3.2


% of % owner Total assessed
Total units state occupied value milsls)


Florida 3

Ft. Lauderdale MSA
Broward County

Jacksonville MSA
Clay County
Duval County
Nassau County
St. Johns County
Total

Miami MSA
Miami-Dade County

Orlando MSA
Lake County
Orange County
Osceola County
Seminole County
Total

Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater
Hernando County
Hillsborough County
Pasco County
Pinellas County
Total

West Palm Beach-Boca Raton M
Palm Beach County

Regional subtotal
MSA subtotal 2

Daytona Beach MSA
Flagler County
Volusia County
Total

Ft. Myers-Cape Coral MSA
Lee County

Ft. Pierce-Port St. Lucie MSA
Martin County
St. Lucie County
Total

Ft. Walton Beach MSA
Okaloosa County

Gainesville MSA
Alachua County

Lakeland-Winter Haven MSA


Polk County


Melbourne-Titusville-Palm Bay ME
Brevard County

Naples MSA
Collier County

Ocala MSA
Marion County

Panama City MSA
Bay County


3,607,702 100


323,762 9


34,479 1
202,583 5.6
12,373 0.3
32,396 0.9
281,831 7.8


309,841 8.6


51,770 1.4
201,448 5.6
42,983 1.2
98,208 2.7
394,409 10.9

MSA
43,284 1.2
236,249 6.5
97,841 2.7
236,053 6.5
613,427 17

SA
189,754 5.3


2,113,024 58.6


17,592 0.5
122,600 3.4
140,192 3.9


116,424 3.2


36,282 1
57,699 1.6
93,981 2.6


49,683 1.4


45,054 1.2


111,452 3.1

SA
138,020 3.8


48,840 1.4


62,301 1.7


43,069 1.2


341,057


36,533


2,835
15,539
1,175
4,277
23,826


35,843


4,117
19,786
3,502
9,811
37,216


2,970
19,202
6,369
20,374
48,916


29,294


211,627


1,620
8,835
10,456


12,818


5,826
4,106
9,931


4,334


3,357


6,775


10,678


9,368


3,775


2,943


% of state


100


10.7


0.8
4.6
0.3
1.3
7


10.5


1.2
5.8
1
2.9
10.9


0.9
5.6
1.9
6
14.3


8.6


62.1


0.5
2.6
3.1


3.8


1.7
1.2
2.9


1.3


1


2


3.1


2.7


1.1


0.9


Single Family Housing Stock


Total just
value milsls)


358,576


38,009


2,970
16,729
1,250
4,669
25,619


38,238


4,190
20,321
3,533
10,075
38,119


3,002
20,405
6,718
21,558
51,683


30,916


222,583


1,644
9,068
10,712


13,259


6,065
4,156
10,220


4,567


3,652


6,841


11,173


10,274


3,991


3,053


% of Average
state age


100 24


10.6 23


0.8 18
4.7 31
0.3 22
1.3 17
7.1 28


10.7 32


1.2 23
5.7 23
1 15
2.8 20
10.6 22


0.8 15
5.7 22
1.9 21
6 27
14.4 24


8.6 24


62.1 25


0.5 13
2.5 26
3 24


3.7 21


1.7 17
1.2 20
2.9 18


1.3 21


1 24


1.9 29


3.1 22


2.9 16


1.1 20


0.9 24


Relative Average Relative Number of Median 1998


size size index 1998 sales sale price


1,874


1,894


2,003
1,758
1,994
2,164
1,845


1,857


1,481
1,886
1,830
2,100
1,880


na
1,813
1,691
1,661
1,729


2,181


1,860


2,065
1,496
1,565


1,888


2,531
2,209
2,340


1,930


1,869


2,181


1,577


na


1,513


1,797


age index


253,823 105,000


29,440 129,000


2,983 99,700
12,521 94,500
840 123,750
2,952 149,400
19,296 101,900


18,872 128,000


4,551 95,700
17,879 105,000
4,146 97,850
8,192 119,450
34,768 105,700


2,505 70,000
17,612 105,900
7,763 68,000
14,132 93,800
42,012 92,000


14,873 135,000


159,261 112,400


1,120 92,000
4,917 75,500
6,037 79,400


7,690 116,000


2,955 140,000
3,048 75,250
6,003 93,000


3,733 97,000


3,066 96,000


6,797 78,000


8,423 86,500


3,901 166,200


4,682 77,400


2,771 86,700


continued on next page











Exhibit 3.2


Single Family Housing Stock


% of % owner Total assessed
Total units state occupied value milsls)


Total just % of Average
% of state value milsls) state age


Relative
age index


Average Relative Number of Median 1998
size size index 1998 sales sale price


Pensacola MSA
Escambia County
Santa Rosa County
Total

Punta Gorda MSA
Charlotte County

Sarasota-Bradenton MSA
Manatee County
Sarasota County
Total

Tallahassee MSA
Gadsden County
Leon County
Total


Regional subtotal
MSA subtotal


Northwest nonmetropolitan area
Calhoun County
Franklin County
Gulf County
Holmes County
Jackson County
Jefferson County
Liberty County
Wakulla County
Walton County
Washington County
Total

Northeast nonmetropolitan area
Baker County
Bradford County
Columbia County
Dixie County
Gilchrist County
Hamilton County
Lafayette County
Levy County
Madison County
Suwannee County
Taylor County
Union County
Total

Central nonmetropolitan area
Citrus County
Putnam County
Sumter County
Total

South nonmetropolitan area
De Soto County
Glades County
Hardee County
Hendry County
Highlands County
Indian River County
Monroe County
Okeechobee County
Total

Regional subtotal
MSA subtotal


82,363
33,382
115,745


51,175 1.4 72.2


56,004
96,883
152,887


9,100
58,024
67,124


1,235,947 34.3


75.2


2,440
5,092
4,785
3,127
9,535
1,847
1,230
4,273
11,652
3,874
47,855


2,843
4,947
9,984
2,392
1,642
1,849
766
5,913
2,940
4,845
4,646
1,048
43,815


38,343
15,112
11,290
64,745


4,953
1,483
3,858
4,752
26,473
32,261
22,606
5,930
102,316


4,674
2,967
7,641


4,421


5,815
11,945
17,760


385
5,018
5,403


109,659


87
488
300
117
391
71
41
235
1,285
151
3,166


141
244
520
74
78
68
29
289
111
217
192
41
2,003


2,375
799
657
3,830


257
80
158
266
1,458
3,786
4,419
348
10,771


5,095
3,184
8,280


4,707 1.3 19 0.78


6,153
12,787
18,940


396
5,277
5,674


32.2


115,344 32.2 23 0.95


91
518
347
129
428
72
47
250
1,377
160
3,419


151
251
546
76
79
69
30
294
113
234
196
43
2,081


2,492
843
672
4,006


268
80
168
266
1,465
3,865
4,678
353
11,144


1,694
1,989
1,778


1,907


2,261
2,028
2,113


1,621
1,600
1,603


1,924


1,595
1,595
1,624
1,475
1,698
1,731
1,561
1,603
1,867
1,603
1,683


1,671
1,659
1,793
na
1,669
1,596
1,559
1,629
1,552
1,622
1,619
1,748
1,697


na
1,981
1,605
1,821


1,703
1,590
1,550
1,632
1,696
1,918
1,512
1,648
1,714


4,633
2,518
7,151


3,076


4,649
8,869
13,518


197
3,662
3,859


1.03 80,707


54
238
199
145
249
62
29
219
696
142
2,033


144
176
498
40
46
38
28
185
74
162
139
18
1,548


2,337
579
1,515
4,431


141
47
138
166
1,456
2,153
1,466
276
5,843


19,770 5.8 20,649 5.8 24 0.99


continued from previous page


84,000
98,900
89,500


85,500


115,000
105,500
110,000


70,000
97,000
95,500


93,000


48,250
125,000
80,900
40,000
58,000
55,500
35,500
88,000
125,000
48,500
75,100


77,000
62,250
67,500
39,650
59,250
53,000
41,250
55,000
51,450
55,000
40,000
46,000
60,000


64,000
59,000
109,200
78,000


68,000
68,000
47,050
59,000
61,000
87,500
212,500
67,150
90,500


258,731 7.2 70.6


1,717 0.92 13,855 79,900








For the other MSAs, the index is 0.95
with an average age of 23 years, and the
non-MSA counties had an age index of
1.0 with an average age of 24 years.
Comparisons at these high levels of
aggregation, however, mask significant
differences in individual MSAs and
counties. For example, with a relative
age index of 0.54, Flagler County in the
Daytona Beach MSA has the newest
housing stock in Florida. This reflects a
single-family housing stock in Flagler
with an average age of 13 years. Other
counties with relative age indexes of 0.75
or below include Clay, St. Johns, Osceola,
and Hernando Counties among major
MSA counties; Collier, Martin, and
Santa Rosa Counties among the other
MSAs; and Citrus and Sumter Counties
in the non-metropolitan category.
Generally, the counties with newer
housing stocks are coastal counties that
have experienced rapid growth.
Single-family housing stocks that are
older than the state average are generally
found in large urban counties or in the
rural, interior counties with smaller
populations. The oldest single-family
stock is in Hamilton County, with a
relative age index of 1.43 and a mean age
of 35 years. Other non-metropolitan
counties with a relative age index of 1.25
or greater include Bradford, Calhoun,
Hardee, Holmes, Jackson, Jefferson,
Lafayette, Liberty, Putnam, and
Washington. Among the metropolitan
counties, the oldest housing stock is
found in Miami-Dade County with an
average age of 32 years. Gadsden
County, a small county in the Tallahassee
MSA, and Duval County (Jacksonville)
each had an average age of 31 years.
Pinellas (27 years), Polk (29 years), and
Escambia (30 years) also have relatively
old housing stocks.
Similar to the relative age index, a
relative size index also was constructed.
This index compares the average size of


units in each county or MSA to the state
average. The average size of a single
family housing unit in the state of Florida
is about 1,874 square feet and the
averages for the major MSAs, other
MSAs, and non-metropolitan areas show
little variation around that average.
Counties with relative size averages of
1.20 or greater include Manatee and
Martin. No clear pattern emerges as to
characteristics of counties with large
square footage of units.
Counties with units that are smaller
than average are generally non
metropolitan counties. While a number
of non-metropolitan counties had
average size indices below 0.9, only
Holmes County fell below the 0.8 size
index. Metropolitan counties with
relative size indices below 0.8, indicating
average unit sizes of below about 1,500
square feet, include only Lake and
Volusia Counties.
Counties with the largest number of
sales transactions in 1998 are, as
expected, the largest counties in
population. Almost 63 percent of the
single-family transactions in the state in
1998 were in the major MSA counties,
with 16.5 percent in the Tampa Bay MSA
alone. Among individual counties
Broward was the highest with 11.6
percent of the state total and Miami
Dade had 7.4% of Florida's 1998
transactions. Almost 25 percent of
transactions in 1998 were in the three
southeast Florida counties-Miami
Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach.
Thirty-two percent of all sales in 1998
were in other MSA counties, while the
remaining 5 percent were in the non
metropolitan counties.
The turnover rate measures the
percentage of total units sold in each area.
Units sold as a percentage of total units
in the large MSAs were 7.5 percent. The
sales in other MSAs equaled 6.5 percent
of total units, in the non-MSA counties








they were 5.4 percent. Turnover of
single-family housing units is clearly
higher in major MSAs than in other
MSAs, with the lowest turnover rates
being in the non-MSA counties.
Counties with fewer than 100
transactions were small, rural counties
including Calhoun, Dixie, Gilchrist,
Glades, Hamilton, Jefferson, Lafayette,
Liberty, Madison, and Union (with a
state low of 18 transactions).
The highest single-family median
prices are in Monroe ($212,500), Collier
($166,200), St. Johns ($149,400),
Martin ($140,000), and Palm Beach
($135,000) Counties. Other counties
with median sales prices above $120,000
include Broward, Nassau, Miami-Dade,
Franklin, and Walton. All the counties
with high median prices are coastal
counties. Counties with low median
prices include a number with median
prices at or below $40,000: Dixie
($39,650), Holmes ($40,000), Lafayette
($40,000), Liberty ($35,500), and Taylor
($40,000).
The sales price data further illustrate
the differences between urban and rural
counties and between coastal and non
coastal counties. The highest mean prices
in 1998 are in coastal counties, several
of which are not major urban counties
(for example, Collier and Martin). At
the other extreme, counties with the
lowest mean house prices are generally
rural, slow growing, and located in the
interior of the state. The state of Florida
has distinct differences in housing
markets across different geographic and
population characteristics.


3.3 Condominiums

The role of condominiums in
providing housing in a county is another
indicator of the differences in housing
stock across counties. Exhibit 3.3
contains summary information on the


state's stock of condominiums. As
expected, condominiums are an
important source of housing in coastal
counties where a number of retirees live,
but not in interior counties. Summing
across counties indicates that there were
1,226,099 condominium housing units
in the state in 1998. Approximately 47
percent of these units are owner
occupied, much less than the 77 percent
owner-occupied percentage found in the
detached single-family stock. A total of
717,459 units, or over 58 percent of
condominium units in the state, are
located in three southeast Florida
counties: Miami-Dade, Broward, and
Palm Beach. By contrast, 12 counties
report fewer than 200 such units. All of
the latter counties are non-MSA
counties. In total, the non-MSA counties
have less than 2.5 percent of the total
condominiums in the state, and 85
percent of these are found in three
counties: Indian River, Monroe, and Walton.
Other coastal metropolitan counties
have a much smaller stock of
condominium units than the three
southeast counties, but condominiums
still play a major role in the provision of
housing in those counties. For example,
Collier County's 66,665 condominium
units far exceed the 48,840 single-family
housing units in the county.
Condominium units also exceed single
family units in Palm Beach County.
Other counties in which condominiums
are a significant portion of the housing
stock (generally, close to or above 40
percent of the single-family stock)
include Lee, Manatee, Pinellas, Sarasota,
and Walton.
The mean age of condominium units
for the state of Florida is approximately
18 years, below the 24-year average for
single-family units. Some of the newest
condominium stocks are located in non
metropolitan counties including
Franklin, with a mean age of 2 years.









Exhibit 3.3 Condominium Housing Stock


% of % owner Total assessed
Total units state occupied value milsls)


Florida


Ft. Lauderdale MSA
Broward County

Jacksonville MSA
Clay County
Duval County
Nassau County
St. Johns County
Total

Miami MSA
Miami-Dade County

Orlando MSA
Lake County
Orange County
Osceola County
Seminole County
Total


1,226,099 100


207,193 16.9


1,098
7,037
2,487
7,446
18,068


257,497 21


2,515
29,241
3,352
8,108
43,216


Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater MSA
Hernando County 646
Hillsborough County 20,772
Pasco County 10,872
Pinellas County 81,143
Total 113,433


West Palm Beach-Boca Raton MSA
Palm Beach County 25

Regional subtotal
MSA subtotal 89

Daytona Beach MSA
Flagler County
Volusia County 2
Total 2

Ft. Myers-Cape Coral MSA
Lee County 4

Ft. Pierce-Port St. Lucie MSA
Martin County 1
St. Lucie County 1
Total 2

Ft. Walton Beach MSA
Okaloosa County

Gainesville MSA
Alachua County


2,769 20.6


2,176 72.8


1,583
0,686
2,269


9,101


3,211
2,163
5,374


8,993 0.7


3,016 0.2


Lakeland-Winter Haven MSA
Polk County 6,961 0.6

Melbourne-Titusville-Palm Bay MSA
Brevard County 22,995 1.9


46.9


54.2


57
55.1
15
29.3
39


51.3


56.6
31.2
7.8
54.9
35.3


44.1
54.1
51
50
50.8


54.4


51.8


35.1
33
33.1


31.3


48.4
34.4
41.7


9.5


44.1


33


43.1


104,283


11,825


63
479
347
857
1,746


22,628


166
3,222
823
378
4,589


33
1,090
465
5,182
6,769


22,792


70,349


146
1,607
1,753


Total just
%of state value milsls)


65
512
349
900
1,826


147
1,619
1,766


Median
Relative Number of 1998 sale
age index 1998 sales price

1 102,912 84,000


na 15,001 58,000


0.9
na
0.98
na
0.95


23,141 21.8


169
3,237
824
385
4,615


33
1,137
475
5,294
6,940


21.9


67.5


0.1
1.5
1.7


85
476
272
735
1,568


58,000
68,250
130,950
109,000
93,000


na 24,616 87,900


0.94
na
0.74
1.09
0.98


0.63
0.88
0.99
1.18
1.11


189
2,057
144
752
3,142


36
1,910
701
6,627
9,274


61,000
58,000
81,000
57,500
59,000


51,000
63,500
45,000
64,500
62,000


na 19,715 106,000


73,316 78,500


0.81
na
na


5,142 4.8 15 0.83


5,085


918
952
1,870


1,149


128


922
955
1,877


177
1,232
1,409


89,900
85,000
85,000


4,695 115,000


1,065
956
2,021


60,325
87,000
70,000


1,170 1.1 na


133 0.1 15 0.83


272 0.3 na


1,440


1,450


1.4 19 1.06


Naples MSA
Collier County


9,074 8.5 13 0.74 5,503 126,300


% of Average
state age


106,372 100


12,177 11.4


23,111 21.7


71,810 67.5


20 1.09


318 51,500


538 48,700


1,942 70,000


66,665 5.4


28.2 8,926 8.6








Exhibit 3.3 Condominium Housing Stock


% of % owner Total assessed
Total units state occupied value milsls)


Ocala MSA
Marion County

Panama City MSA
Bay County


Pensacola MSA
Escambia County
Santa Rosa County
Total

Punta Gorda MSA
Charlotte County

Sarasota-Bradenton MSA
Manatee County
Sarasota County
Total


Tallahassee MSA
Leon County
Total

Regional subtotal
MSA subtotal


Northwest nonmetropolitan area
Franklin County
Gulf County
Wakulla County
Walton County
Total

Northeast nonmetropolitan area
Bradford County
Columbia County
Levy County
Taylor County
Total

Central nonmetropolitan area
Citrus County
Putnam County
Sumter County
Total

South nonmetropolitan area
De Soto County
Glades County
Hardee County
Hendry County
Highlands County
Indian River County
Monroe County
Okeechobee County
Total

Regional subtotal
MSA subtotal


6,039 0.5


9,909 0.8


4,045
913
4,958


10,917 0.9


22,959
42,685
65,644


685 0.1
685 0.1


303,526 24.8


19
36
82
7,305
7,442


18
47
168
13
246


1,467
141
106
1,714


424
32
235
148
1,287
11,412
7,268
189
20,995


63.9


9.6


25.1
23.8
24.9


29.2


49.9
41.2
44.3


24.2
24.2


34.6


5.3
5.6
24.4
7.2
7.4


77.8
61.7
4.8
na
20.7


39.5
30.5
37.7
38.7


39.6
21.9
24.7
20.9
41.6
43.7
17.1
30.7
33.8


Total just
%of state value milsls)


% of Average
state age


0.3 15


Median
Relative Number of 1998 sale
age index 1998 sales price


0.8 15 0.81


0.9 15 0.84


1,804
5,383
7,187


1,841
5,605
7,447


30,433


2
4
6
1,132
1,143


1
3
11
na
16


68
8
4
80


24
2
7
8
52
1,146
1,017
5
2,261


1.01
1.08
1.06


1.38
1.38


17 0.96


2
4
6
1,140
1,151


0.11
0.75
na
na
na


na
1.13
0.55
na
0.68


0.94
1.06
na
0.95


na
0.94
na
0.64
1.03
0.99
na
1.24
0.98


24
2
7
8
52
1,174
1,034
5
2,307


465 61,000


979 99,500


931 70,500


1,867
4,470
6,337


82,000
115,000
101,900


44,150
44,150


26,446 100,000


12
2
10
1,093
1,117


1
6
13
na
20


138
17
11
166


98
3
17
5
86
985
638
15
1,847


108,700
115,000
94,000
na
na


64,500
64,750
115,000
na
84,000


58,000
65,000
36,500
58,000


71,400
62,000
35,000
63,000
50,000
98,000
159,000
29,500
111,000


27.5 3,501 3.4 3,556


31,006 29.1


30,397 2.5


3.3 18 0.97 3,150 132,450










Exhibit 3.4 Multi-Family Housing


Stock with Two to Nine Units in Complex


Total % of Total just
complexes state value milsls)


Florida


150.000 100


Ft. Lauderdale MSA
Broward County 19,789

Jacksonville MSA
Clay County 275
Duval County 4,933
Nassau County 307
St. Johns County 1,763
Total 7,278

Miami MSA
Miami-Dade County 32,483

Orlando MSA
Lake County 1,130
Orange County 9,538
Osceola County 810
Seminole County 1,159
Total 12,637

Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater MSA
Hernando County 357
Hillsborough County 5,204
Pasco County 1,199
Pinellas County 13,613
Total 20,373

West Palm Beach-Boca Raton MSA
Palm Beach County 10,716

Regional subtotal
MSA subtotal 103,276

Daytona Beach MSA
Flagler County 303
Volusia County 6,746
Total 7,049

Ft. Myers-Cape Coral MSA
Lee County 5,429

Ft. Pierce-Port St. Lucie MSA
Martin County 872
St. Lucie County 1,478
Total 2,350

Ft. Walton Beach MSA
Okaloosa County 714

Gainesville MSA
Alachua County 1,781

Lakeland-Winter Haven MSA
Polk County 4,495

Melbourne-Titusville-Palm Bay MSA
Brevard County 2,961

Naples MSA
Collier County 1,875

Ocala MSA
Marion County 1,061

Panama City MSA
Bay County 734


14,191


2,369


26
370
37
213
646


3,620


87
623
68
87
865


27
311
77
1,178
1,593


1,013


10,107


29
429
458


467


64
89
153


79


105


233


272


201


67


66


Average


% of state


New
Relative complexes
age constructed


age index


100


in 1998 % of state

388 100


28 7.2


0 0
8 2.1
4 1
23 5.9
35 9


81 20.9


15 3.9
10 2.6
2 0.5
3 0.8
30 7.7


4 1
9 2.3
2 0.5
6 1.5
21 5.4


15 3.9


210 54.1


6 1.5
0 0
6 1.5


Median
1998 price
Number of per square


1998 sales

8,148


1,392


na
191
17
57
266


1,576


55
632
30
71
788


22
271
78
807
1,178


649


5,849


10
296
306


340


59
35
94


22


75


193


143


72


51


34


foot

45.69


53.32


na
33.26
59.7
59.48
35.71


56.01


42.17
45.75
38.66
35.51
44.74


29.53
35.24
35.26
41.04
39.09


42.75


47.41


41.26
52.02
51.52


39.53


33.52
27.92
32.07


41.61


25.99


28.67


48.08


50.08


28.59


35.68











Exhibit 3.4 Multi-Family Housing


Stock with Two to Nine Units in Complex


Total % of Total just
complexes state value milsls)


Relative
Average age
age index


% of state


New Median
complexes 1998 price
constructed Number of per square
in 1998 % of state 1998 sales foot


Pensacola MSA
Escambia County
Santa Rosa County
Total

Punta Gorda MSA
Charlotte County

Sarasota-Bradenton MSA
Manatee County
Sarasota County
Total

Tallahassee MSA
Gadsden County
Leon County
Total


Regional subtotal
MSA subtotal


Northwest nonmetropolitan area
Calhoun County
Franklin County
Gulf County
Holmes County
Jackson County
Jefferson County
Wakulla County
Walton County
Washington County
Total

Northeast nonmetropolitan area
Baker County
Bradford County
Columbia County
Dixie County
Gilchrist County
Hamilton County
Lafayette County
Levy County
Madison County
Suwannee County
Taylor County
Union County
Total

Central nonmetropolitan area
Citrus County
Putnam County
Sumter County
Total

South nonmetropolitan area
De Soto County
Glades County
Hardee County
Hendry County
Highlands County
Indian River County
Monroe County
Okeechobee County
Total

Regional subtotal
MSA subtotal


1,829
632
2,461


29.23
42.6
31.21


872 0.6


18 0.54


0.8 47 41.16


4,601
2,293
6,894


11
2,010
2,021


40,697 27.1


3
19
4
8
63
12
17
44
8
178


22
18
209
3
8
17
4
68
37
44
8
11
449


372
138
72
582


168
35
101
389
707
729
2,568
121
4,818


6,027


3,192


22.5


28 0.84


892 6.3 33 0.98


140 36.1 1,992


36.88
50.51
40.61


na
41.3
41.29


40.33


na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na


na
na
32.27
na
na
na
na
31.52
41.53
na
na
na
32.42


na
28.38
25.96
na


30.63
36.21
23.42
30.63
26.92
41.86
132.81
30.53
66.42


38 9.8 307 45.45









Exhibit 3.5 Multi-Family Housing


Stock with Ten or More Units in Complex


Total % of Total just
complexes state value milsls)

13,560 100 24,089


Florida


New
Relative complexes
Average age constructed
age index in 1998

29 1 156


% of state


100


Median
1998 price
Number of per square
% of state 1998 sales foot


100 616


42.16


Ft. Lauderdale MSA
Broward County

Jacksonville MSA
Clay County
Duval County
Nassau County
St. Johns County
Total

Miami MSA
Miami-Dade County

Orlando MSA
Lake County
Orange County
Osceola County
Seminole County
Total


1,807 13.3


3,992 29.4


106
684
80
298
1,168


Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater MSA
Hernando County 42 0.3
Hillsborough County 770 5.7
Pasco County 132 1
Pinellas County 781 5.8
Total 1,725 12.7


32 1.11


3,875


124
1,569
19
131
1,842


4,824


94
2,639
255
960
3,948


28
2,078
127
1,409
3,641


17 10.9


100 55.35


na
25.04
na
na
25.04


35 1.22


8.3 169 52.73


40.64
35.79
na
31.03
35.79


na
32.26
na
31.52
31.94


West Palm Beach-Boca Raton MSA
Palm Beach County


Regional subtotal
MSA subtotal

Daytona Beach MSA
Flagler County
Volusia County
Total


Ft. Myers-Cape Coral MSA
Lee County

Ft. Pierce-Port St. Lucie MSA
Martin County
St. Lucie County
Total

Ft. Walton Beach MSA
Okaloosa County

Gainesville MSA
Alachua County

Lakeland-Winter Haven MSA
Polk County

Melbourne-Titusville-Palm Bay MSA
Brevard County


Naples MSA
Collier County

Ocala MSA
Marion County

Panama City MSA
Bay County


751 5.5 1,890


10,077 74.3


147 1.1


131 1


398 2.9


272 2


273 2


86 0.6


85 0.6


118 0.9


20,021


4
335
339


323


76
57
133


84


467


219


399


0.4


26 0.91


30 1.04


7.7 33 39.91


66 474 44.94


na
34.97
34.97


21 0.73


0 13 37.21


46.05
na
46.05


20 0.69


21 0.73


27 0.93


27 0.93


18 0.62


21 0.73


106 0.4 19 0.66


5 40.38


8 29.53


1.9 11 27.41


10 35.82


8 53.38


5 23.78


3 1.9 2 21.14










Exhibit 3.5 Multi-Family Housing


Stock with Ten or More Units in Complex


Total % of Total just
complexes state value milsls)


New
Relative complexes
Average age constructed
age index in 1998


% of state


Median
1998 price
Number of per square
% of state 1998 sales foot


Pensacola MSA
Escambia County
Santa Rosa County
Total

Punta Gorda MSA
Charlotte County

Sarasota-Bradenton MSA
Manatee County
Sarasota County
Total

Tallahassee MSA
Gadsden County
Leon County
Total


Regional subtotal
MSA subtotal


118 0.9
47 0.3
165 1.2


25 0.2


130 1
209 1.5
339 2.5


43 0.3
325 2.4
368 2.7


3,017 22.2


21 0.72


0.6 na na


34.31
39.92
39.53


na
33.22
33.22


3,836


26 0.91


45 28.8


132 35.19


Northwest nonmetropolitan area
Calhoun County
Franklin County
Gulf County
Holmes County
Jackson County
Jefferson County
Wakulla County
Walton County
Washington County
Total

Northeast nonmetropolitan area
Baker County
Bradford County
Columbia County
Dixie County
Gilchrist County
Lafayette County
Levy County
Madison County
Suwannee County
Taylor County
Union County
Total

Central nonmetropolitan area
Citrus County
Putnam County
Sumter County
Total

South nonmetropolitan area
De Soto County
Glades County
Hardee County
Hendry County
Highlands County
Indian River County
Monroe County
Okeechobee County
Total

Regional subtotal
MSA subtotal


na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na


na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na


na
na
47.98
47.98


na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na


232 1 20 0.69


466 3.4


8 5.1 10 47.98








Among metropolitan counties,
S11 Hernando has a mean age of 11 years for
condominium units.
The number of condominium sales in
the state totaled 102,912 units in 1998.
Of these almost one quarter occurred in
Miami-Dade County, 19 percent in Palm
Beach County, and over 14 percent in
Broward County. These three southeast
counties accounted for almost 60 percent
of all condominium transactions in the state.
In several counties, condominiums do
not play the role of "stepping stone" to
single-family home ownership that is
sometimes ascribed to them, and there
also is a wide range of median prices
across counties. The median price of
condominium units sold in the state in
1998 was $84,000. Counties with
median prices above $100,000 were the
$126,300 in Collier County, $108,700
in Franklin County, $115,000 in Gulf
County, $115,000 in Lee County,
$115,000 in Levy County, $159,000 in
Monroe County, $130,950 in Nassau
County, $106,000 in Palm Beach
County, $109,000 in St. Johns County,
and $115,000 in Sarasota County. These
are coastal counties and, with a few
exceptions are not part of major MSAs.
The relatively high price of portions of
the condominium stock in Florida
appears to reflect the steep premium paid
for the ocean accessibility that is an
attribute of many condominiums in
coastal settings.8


3.4 Multifamily Housing

The county property appraiser data
used in this report do not allow an
accounting for the number of units in
multifamily rental structures, as only
information on the structures (parcels)
is reported. It is this information that is
summarized below. We divide the
multifamily stock, consistent with the
appraiser data, into two categories:
complexes with less than 10 units and
complexes with 10 or more units.


Exhibit 3.4 contains summary
information on the state's stock of
multifamily properties containing fewer
than 10 units. There are 150,000
multifamily properties that contain fewer
than 10 units in the state of Florida.
Approximately 69 percent of these are
found in the six major metropolitan
areas, with another 27 percent located
in other metropolitan areas. Only about
four percent of these small multifamily
complexes are found in non-MSA
counties. Over 21 percent of the units
in this category are found in Miami-Dade
County. Only ten of the 33 non-MSA
counties have more than 100 such
complexes, with Monroe having almost
43 percent of the non-MSA total. Other
non-MSA counties with more than 100
units were Columbia, Citrus, Putnam,
DeSoto, Hardee, Hendry, Highlands,
Indian River, and Okeechobee Counties.
These numbers again point to the
differences that are observed in the urban,
coastal counties and the rural, interior
counties of Florida. Recognizing that
condominium units are also likely found
in multifamily structures, it is apparent
that the housing stock in urban and
coastal counties is the predominant
setting for such structures while the rural
and interior counties are characterized by
a largely single-family housing stock.
The mean age of multifamily
complexes containing 9 or fewer units is
34 years for the state. Counties with the
oldest average ages include Duval,
Miami-Dade and Monroe. Counties
with a relative age index of below 0.6
include Bay, Calhoun, Charlotte, Flagler,
Gadsden, Gilchrist, Gulf, Hamilton,
Hernando, Holmes, Jackson, Madison,
Santa Rosa, Walton and Washington.
The latter counties have either
experienced recent growth or have little
multifamily stock so that their average is
impacted by one or a few projects.
There are few sales of multifamily
properties of less than 10 units relative
to single-family units, as there were only


Data on the average size (square footage) of the condominium stock is not reported because of numerous problems
and inconsistencies with the DOR data.








8,148 small multifamily properties sold
across the state in 1998. Miami-Dade
and Broward Counties combined to have
over 36 percent of the sales in the state,
and almost 72 percent of all sales were in
major MSA areas.
Because multifamily buildings vary in
size and numbers of units, a median price
per square foot was calculated to allow
comparisons across counties. The
median price for the state was $45.69.
Monroe County, with a price per square
foot of $132.81, was by far the highest
per square foot average. The next highest
average was St. Johns County at almost
$60 per square foot.
Exhibit 3.5 contains information on
multifamily complexes with 10 or more
units. With a total of 13,560 complexes
in the state, there are about 9 percent as
many of these larger complexes as of
complexes with less than 10 units, but
these complexes undoubtedly comprise
more total units than the smaller
complexes. About 30 percent of these
larger complexes are located in Miami
Dade County, with about 13 percent
each in Broward County and in the
Tampa Bay MSA. The six major MSAs
contain approximately 75 percent of all
complexes of this type. The other MSAs
contain 22 percent of the state total, with
Volusia, Alachua, and Leon Counties
having more than 300 complexes. The
Alachua and Leon numbers reflect the
concentration of college students in those
communities. Non-MSA counties
contain only 3 percent of the state's stock
of larger apartment complexes.
The average age of these larger
complexes is 29 years. Miami-Dade (35
years) and Broward (32 years) Counties
have relatively old stocks of larger
complexes. At 21 years, Orlando has the
youngest stock of such complexes among
the six major MSAs.
There were 156 complexes of greater
than 10 units constructed in 1998.
About 66 percent of this construction
occurred in the six major MSAs
including over one half in the Tampa Bay


and Orlando MSAs. Sales of existing
complexes in this category totaled 616
in 1998, with over 27 percent in Miami
Dade County and almost 77 percent in
the major MSAs.


3.5 Impact of Housing on the

Florida Economy

There are a number of ways in which
the impact of housing on the Florida
economy might be measured. For
example, we might examine the number
of jobs created in the construction and
related industries, the payroll on those
jobs, or the materials cost of a housing
unit. We examine two simple measures.
First, in 1998 there were 253,823 sales
of single family housing units (new and
existing). With an average sales price of
over $100,000, these transactions total
over $250 billion in sales. This figure is
the basis from which transaction fees,
transfer taxes, mortgage fees, purchases
of new furnishings and equipment, and
other expenditures flowing into the
economy are generated. Second, the total
value of the single family housing stock
in the state was over $3.41trillion in
1998. This figure is the basis for property
taxes as well as a measure of the wealth
of households. The figure does not
include condominiums, multifamily rental
structures, or mobile homes.


3.6 Summary

The county property appraiser data
provides a wealth of data on
characteristics of the housing stock across
the state. The county-by-county and
MSA summaries clearly show differences
in the importance of single-family
properties, condominiums, and
multifamily properties. Also apparent are
differences across the state in the age and
size of units. Finally, there are significant
differences in the numbers of transactions
each year and in the median values of
properties. The differences show that the
state might be characterized as two states








when thinking about the housing
market, with the large urban and coastal
counties at one extreme and the small,
rural inland counties at the other.
Location, population size and density,
and growth rates are among the obvious
variables that are not included in this
analysis but are reflected in the housing
activity across counties. For example,
rapidly growing counties have a newer
housing stock on average, and coastal
counties have higher average property values.
The property appraiser data used in
this report is derived from a summary
report prepared by county property
appraisers for DOR. Because of this,
there are limitations in the data resulting
from a lack of uniformity in reporting
through this particular format. Some
counties, for example, do not report
certain variables, such as square footage
or sales prices over time. An attempt has
been made in this chapter to constrain
certain data elements in order to achieve
full reporting of data to allow
comparisons across counties; this result
was not always possible.


4. Housing Prices and

Affordability


4.1 Introduction

The affordability of housing is an
important issue nationally and in the
state of Florida. Households are
concerned about it because affordability
affects their ability to become a
homeowner, as well as the size and quality
of the home they are able to purchase.
Real estate salespersons and other
industry participants also are concerned,
because the number of households able
to afford the purchase of a home is an
important determinant of single-family
sales activity in their local markets.
Housing affordability also has become
an important public policy issue, as home
ownership is viewed as being an
important goal for both individual and
societal reasons. Home ownership entails


an assumption of responsibility on the
part of the owner and creates equity and
control. Many believe that society
benefits because homeowners are more
active and connected citizens. To
encourage home ownership, the state of
Florida has undertaken several initiatives,
the most prominent of which is the State
Housing Initiatives Partnership (SHIP)
program. Local governments also are
making efforts to address home
ownership barriers and the President of
the United States announced several years
ago an initiative to expand home
ownership called "The National Home
Ownership Strategy". Efforts to expand
home ownership include regulatory
reform, tax incentives, subsidies, and
alternative mortgage instruments.
However, to properly intervene in the
public policy debate, and to determine
the types of programs that are necessary,
it is important to understand the
magnitude of the affordability problem
and the locations of greatest need.
Three factors are the primary
determinants of the affordability of
housing. These are household income,
housing prices, and mortgage rates. For
a household considering home
ownership, an additional factor is the rate
of appreciation in housing prices. This
chapter begins with a discussion of
historic appreciation rates for single
family housing. It then investigates issues
of housing affordability using a concept
called cost burden.


4.2 Housing Appreciation

Dr. Dean Gatzlaff at Florida State
University prepares the Gatzlaff Index of
Housing Prices in Florida. These indices
are calculated for each of Florida's
Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) as
data are available, and use a "repeat sales"
methodology to track changes in housing
prices over time. For the state, the index
has been calculated from 1980 to 1999
and shows that house prices have
increased over that period from a level of
one in 1980 to 1.73985 in 1999. In other








words, prices in the state have increased
by almost 75 percent over the 19-year
period. This increase compares to an
increase in the Consumer Price Index of
roughly 100 percent over the same
period. Thus over the period housing
price appreciation has not kept pace with
inflation on average in the state. Between
1980 and 1990, appreciation was over
37 percent. Since 1990 it has been only
about 27 percent as appreciation rates
slowed this decade in the face of high
interest rates early in the decade and
declines in the growth rate of the state.
In the last years of the 1990s,
appreciation rates were higher including
an over five percent increase in the past
year statewide. The highest appreciation
rate among MSAs was in Naples, where
the 1980 to 1999 index moved from one
in 1980 to 2.05 in 1999. Other MSAs
with appreciation rates above the state
average for the 1980 to 1999 period
include, in descending order, Panama
City, Miami, Jacksonville, Sarasota,
Orlando, and Fort Walton Beach. Several
MSAs did not have sufficient data to
calculate the index for 1999, but none
likely would exceed the state average
given their level in 1998.


4.3 Housing Affordability

The affordability of housing is a major
issue nationally, and it is no different in
Florida. By some measures, affordability
increased substantially towards the end
of the last decade, primarily as a result of
lower interest rates during that period.
These results are generally conveyed by
using indices. A housing affordability
index for an area brings together the price
and the income elements. The most
common index construction method is
that used by the National Association of
Realtors (NAR). The NAR index
measures the ability of the median
income household in an area to afford a
median priced house. In addition to the
median income and median house price
in an area, index construction requires
the current mortgage interest rate,


assumptions about the down payment
required to purchase the median price
home, and the maximum percentage of
household income that can be spent on
housing. An index of 100 indicates the
typical (median) family in the area has
sufficient income to purchase a single
family home selling at the median
price.
However, the use of indices
focuses only on the average and
masks what is happening at the
low end. For households of lower
income, the loss of affordable
housing from the stock and price
increases that have exceeded the
growth in incomes, among other
factors, have led to a worsening
problem of housing affordability.
As a means of examining the
number of households with a
housing affordability problem,
we calculate a number called
"cost burden." This number is our
estimate of the number of Florida
households paying more than 30 percent
of their income toward housing costs.
The 30 percent figure corresponds to that
used in federal housing programs.
Our estimate is that in 1998 there
were about 1.75 million households
paying more than 30 percent of their
income toward housing costs. By the year
2010, we project that number to increase
to 2.1 million assuming no change in
existing policies and programs. About 44
percent of all renter households are
estimated to have a cost burden as
compared to about 22 percent of owner
households. Almost 30 percent of the
cost burdened households have incomes
below 30 percent of the respective
median income for their county. Over
75 percent of the households with a cost
burden have incomes below 80 percent
of the county median for their county.
About 17.5 percent of the cost
burdened households reside in Miami
Dade County. With 11.9 percent in
Broward County and 7.3 percent in Palm
Beach County, our estimate is that more


Exhibit 4.1 Comparison of
Housing Price Index in Florida and
Consumer Price Index, 1980-2000
2








than one-third, 36.7 percent, of cost
burdened households are located in the
three south Florida counties. An
additional 13.3 percent of the state's cost
burdened households are in Pinellas and
Hillsborough Counties in the Tampa Bay
metropolitan area, so that a total of 50
percent of Florida's households
experiencing cost burden are located in
five counties.


5. Conclusion


Florida's population is expected to
continue to increase, with the number
of households increasing by about one
million over the next decade, creating a
corresponding need for additional
housing units. Most households in the
state are homeowners, as the
homeownership rate in the state has risen
to over 70 percent. The rate of
homeownership has increased in part as
a result of the aging of the Baby Boom
generation; as households become older
they are more likely to become
homeowners.
Housing prices in Florida are generally
below national averages, yet the greatest
housing problem in the state is housing
affordability. Indices of affordability
show that on average the affordability of
housing has improved in the state in
recent years. However, an affordability
index masks the problems that
households with incomes below the
median income have in obtaining
suitable housing without paying more
than 30 percent of income toward
housing costs. Whether the 30 percent
of income standard is an appropriate
criteria, whether some households pay
more than 30 percent of their income as
a conscious choice to overinvest in
housing, and other issues indicate that it
is difficult to derive a single number of
housing need. However, it is clear that
there is a substantial need in Florida. The


affordability calculations also indicate
that the most severe needs are for
households with incomes below 30
percent of median income. This is a
group that is difficult to reach with state
programs, but one that becomes even
more vulnerable with changes in the
federal public housing program.
While housing affordability is a
problem in Florida, substandard housing
is less pervasive. In part, this is a reflection
of a relatively young housing stock in
Florida that has been built in response
to the recent rapid growth of the state.
There are, however, areas of older
housing stock in the state that are in need
of rehabilitation and the aging of the
existing housing stock will lead to
additional needs for rehabilitation in the
coming years. Florida is dominated by
single family housing, and this type of
housing (including manufactured
housing) is particularly dominant in non
metropolitan counties. Condominiums are
largely concentrated in a few coastal counties.




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