Group Title: Affordable housing issues
Title: Affordable housing issues ; vol. 12 no. 5
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 Material Information
Title: Affordable housing issues ; vol. 12 no. 5
Series Title: Affordable housing issues
Physical Description: Serial
Language: English
Creator: Shimberg Center for Affordable Housing
Publisher: Shimberg Center for Affordable Housing
Place of Publication: Gainesville, Fla.
Publication Date: August 2002
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Bibliographic ID: UF00087009
Volume ID: VID00016
Source Institution: University of Florida
Rights Management: All rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.

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AF F O RD A B L E


HO USING


ISSUES


M.E. Rinker, Sr., School of Building Construction College of Design, Construction & Planning PO Box 115703,
University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611-5703 TEL: (352) 392-7697 SUNCOM: 622-7697 FAX: (352) 392-4364
Volume XII, Number 5 August 2002



The Shimberg Center for Affordable has established the Florida Housing Data Clearing-
house as a resource for policy makers, planners, developers, and homebuilders seeking to
meet the housing needs of Floridians. Each year the Shimberg Center publishes The State
of Florida's Housing to serve as a common reference point describing the existing housing
stock and, when available, housing demand. The current edition first discusses specific
demographic patterns in the state and their impact on the need for housing. Second, it
details characteristics of the housing stock in the state. Third, it discusses the movement in
house prices and the rate of appreciation in housing. Finally, it discusses issues in the
affordability of housing in the state. The expectation is that the information included in this
study will help readers to understand the diversity, the needs, the public policy concerns,
and the opportunities of Florida's many housing markets.
The entire report is available on the Internet at www.flhousingdata.shimberg.ufl.edu
This web site also includes detailed county-by-county tables describing the existing
housing supply.

The State of Florida's Housing, 2002 is a compendium of facts on Florida's housing.
The data highlight the tremendous diversity in housing characteristics across the
state, particularly between the 34 urban counties and the 33 rural counties, as well as
between coastal and non-coastal counties.


I









Pompulatio


The discussion of population in Cha
presents a picture of Florida and the st
fifteen largest counties that show shifts
tween the Census 2000 data and the 19
Census. The shifts that occurred in Flo
the decade between the two census col
represent a continuation of previously
lished trends and are related to both th
tion of people from states outside of Fl
and to the immigration of people from
countries, particularly from Latin Ame
Understanding population change and
impacts housing markets is crucial to t
standing housing demand and develoF
effective housing policies.
The aging of the Baby Boom generate
migration impact household size and t
demand for housing. These changes i
lation also have implications for othe
of society. It is important to study th
cations of this population change on
and employment as well as housing i
state of Florida.


Age Group

Under 5 years
5 to 9 years
10 to 14 years
15 to 19 years
20 to 24 years
25 to 34 years
35 to 44 years
45 to 54 years
55 to 59 years
60 to 64 years
65 to 74 years
75 to 84 years
85 years and over
Total


Number

945,823
1,031,715
1,057,024
1,014,067
928,310
2,084,100
2,485,247
2,069,479
821,517
737,496
1,452,176
1,024,134
331,287
15,982,378


pter 2
ate's
Sbe-
90
,rida in
elections
estab-
le migra-
orida
foreign
crira


The characteristics of Florida's housing reflect
the characteristics of the state's population. The
population of the state is growing, creating a
demand for additional housing, yet that growth
is not distributed uniformly across the state.
Growth is most often a coastal phenomenon.
Further, the nature of the growth differs across
the state as characterized by age, income, race,
ethnicity, and county of origin.


Hosing


how it Florida is a state in which homeownership
t how it
and single-family housing units dominate.
inder-
Multi-family buildings are the dominant source
of rental units and are most prevalent in large
S urban areas. Condominiums are an important
:ion and
S source of housing in some coastal counties and
ype of
manufactured housing (mobile homes) play a
n popu-
key role in rural counties in the interior of the
r aspects
state. County property appraiser data is used
e impli-
schools by the Shimberg Center to describe the existing
n the housing stock. This data source provides a
wealth of data on characteristics of the housing
stock across the state. The county-by-county
and metropolitan statistical area (MSA) summa-
Percent ries clearly show differences in the importance
5.9 of single-family properties, condominiums, and
6.5 multifamily properties. Also apparent are
6.6 differences across the state in the age and size of
6.3 units. Finally, there are significant differences
5.8 in the numbers of transactions each year and in
13.0 the median values of properties. The differ-
15.5 ences show that the state might be characterized
12.9 as two states when thinking about the housing
5.1 market, with the large urban and coastal coun-
4.6 ties at one extreme and the small, rural, inland
9.1 counties at the other. A majority of households
6.4
are homeowners, but rental housing is needed
2.1
to meet the needs of young and lower income
100.0 households. Location, population size and









density, and growth rates are among the obvi-
ous variables that are not included in this
analysis but are reflected in the housing activity
across counties. For example, rapidly growing
counties have a newer housing stock on aver-
age, and coastal counties have higher average
property values. Florida is a state in which
much housing has been built in recent years but
the aging of portions of the stock require atten-
tion to the need for rehabilitation.
Finally, the Local Economic Impact Model
developed by the Economics, Mortgage Fi-
nance, and Housing Policy Division of the
National Association of Home Builders in
Washington D.C. examines the economic im-
pact of 1,000 new
single family homes
on a local economy
for an average city. Income: Percent of
Using the same Area Median Family
numbers would yield <20%
the following impact 20-29.9%
for the 92,270 new 30-39.9%
single-family units 40-49.9%
constructed in the 50-60%
state in 1999: 321,172 60+ %
jobs, $11.5 billion in Total
local income (local
business owners'
income and local wages and salaries), and $1.2
billion in local taxes.




The primary determinants of the affordability
of owner housing are household income, hous-
ing prices, and mortgage rates. An additional
factor is the rate of appreciation of housing
prices. One measure of housing affordability is
commonly conveyed through housing
affordability indexes. The report provides


housing affordability indexes for each of
Florida's counties. The index indicates that
housing became more affordable in the late
1990s as compared to the early part of the
decade; the primary factor for this change
being a decline in mortgage interest rates. It is
important to note that indices focus on the
average and mask what is happening at the
low end.
As a means of examining the number of
renter households with a housing affordability
problem, the report continues to explore the
concept of "cost burden." Cost burden refers to
the number of households paying more that 30
percent of their income toward housing costs.


Burden Cost
Cost Burden
All Renters >30%


203,679
150,316
143,884
144,200
150,885
1,123,762
1,916,726


143,328
118,609
118,970
113,109
104,359
195,468
793,843


Cost Burden
>50%

126,118
91,328
68,525
36,349
16,055
14,118
352,493


It is difficult to derive a single number of
housing need and the 30-percent-of-income
standard may not be an appropriate criteria to
define affordability. However, even if 40
percent or 50 percent is used as the standard, it
is clear that there is a substantial need in
Florida. The affordability calculation indicates
that the most severe needs are for households
with incomes below 30 percent of the area
median income. This group is difficult to reach
without deep subsidies and becomes even more
vulnerable to changes in the federal public
housing programs.









Hui Tns


The value of Florida's residential real estate
constitutes a sizable portion of state resident's
wealth and expected changes in property
values can dramatically influence the state's
economy. The wealth and prosperity of most
of the state's homeowners is more affected by
movement of the market value of their person.
residence than by changes in any other real or
financial asset. Presented in Chapter
5 is a detailed discussion of single-
family house prices plus house price 0
appreciation trends in the state, in 0 6.o/c
MSAs, and by county within plan- 2.0%c
ning districts. Appreciation in most | 00/
markets has been higher in the past -4.0%/
three years than earlier in the 1990s.
The chapter concludes with a
discussion of the relationship be-


tween changes in population, real income,
mortgage interest rates, housing starts, and
house price changes. Using historical data, it is
concluded that a model containing these vari-
ables can be a reliable tool for projecting future
house prices. However, it is noted that forecast-
ing requires the assumption that the relation-
ships between inflation-adjusted price apprecia-
tion and the other exploratory variables con-
tinue into the future.


Year
A-AII MSAs -- Non-MSA Counties


Affordable Housing ISSUES is prepared bi-monthly by the Shimberg Center for Affordable Housing for the purpose of
discussing contemporary issues facing affordable housing providers. Reproduction of this newsletter is both permitted and
encouraged. Comments or questions regarding the content are welcome and should be addressed to Robert C. Stroh, Director.


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