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 Title Page
 Table of Contents
 Introduction and data
 Results
 Conclusions
 Tables
 Back Cover














Group Title: International research document
Title: Fertility decline in developing countries
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Permanent Link: http://ufdc.ufl.edu/UF00086884/00001
 Material Information
Title: Fertility decline in developing countries
Series Title: International research document
Physical Description: 20 p. : ill. ; 28 cm.
Language: English
Creator: Jamison, Ellen
International Demographic Data Center (U.S.)
United States -- Agency for International Development. -- Bureau for Science and Technology
Publisher: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
Place of Publication: Washington D.C
Publication Date: 1983
 Subjects
Subject: Fertility, Human -- Developing countries   ( lcsh )
Statistics, Vital -- Developing countries   ( lcsh )
Genre: federal government publication   ( marcgt )
bibliography   ( marcgt )
statistics   ( marcgt )
non-fiction   ( marcgt )
 Notes
Bibliography: Includes bibliographical references.
Statement of Responsibility: by Ellen Jamison.
General Note: "International Demographic Data Center"--T.p. verso.
General Note: "Prepared under a resources support services agreement with the U.S. Agency for International Development, Bureau for Science and Technology"--Cover.
General Note: "Issued January 1983."
General Note: Item 146-F-1
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Bibliographic ID: UF00086884
Volume ID: VID00001
Source Institution: University of Florida
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Resource Identifier: oclc - 09222170
lccn - 83601199

Table of Contents
    Title Page
        Title Page 1
        Title Page 2
    Table of Contents
        Table of Contents
    Introduction and data
        Page 1
    Results
        Page 2
    Conclusions
        Page 3
    Tables
        Page 4
        Page 5
        Page 6
        Page 7
        Page 8
        Page 9
        Page 10
        Page 11
        Page 12
        Page 13
        Page 14
        Page 15
        Page 16
        Page 17
        Page 18
        Page 19
        Page 20
    Back Cover
        Page 21
Full Text

ISP-RD-9


International
Research
Document
No. 9


Fertility Decline

in Developing

Countries




by Ellen Jamison


f ,


3
k i"d
. k 1' -# -, *


Issued January 1983


of"




U.S. Department of Commerce
Malcolm Baldrige, Secretary
Guy W. Fiske, Deputy Secretary
Robert G. Dederick, Under Secretary for
Economic Affairs

BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
Bruce Chapman,
Director



















BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
Bruce Chapman, Director
C. L. Kincannon, Deputy Director
Robert 0. Bartram, Assistant ODiri.:i ',
for International Pr IL injm,



INTE NATIONAL DEMOGRAPHIC DATA CENTER
Samuel Baum, iCh:i,.







ACKNOWLE DGMENTS

,-,r..-i,.,!i: ..,I Research Document No. 9 was prepared in the
i-lr, -.ji,,:.,,l Demographic Data Center under the direction of
Samuel Baum, Chief.

The paper was prepared under a resources support services
agreement with the Bureau for Science and Technology, Agency
for International Development.

Ms. Jamison first presented the paper at the annual meeting of
the Southern Regional Demographic Group, Little Rock,
Arkansas, October 14 to 16, 1981.




















Contents


TEXT

Introduction. ................... ................. ......................... .. 1
Sources of Data ............... ................................. .. .. 1
Results ................... ................... ...................................... 2
Conclusion ................... .......... .. ........... 3

FIGURES

1. Crude Birth Rates for Selected Countries of Africa ................. ................... ..... 4
2. Total Frtr tilr. Rates for Selected Countries of Africa. .................... .................. ...... 5
3. Crude Birth Rates for Selected Countries of Asia. ... . . ................ .......... 6
4. Total Ftrrtii:, R ate. for Selected Countries of Asia .................................... ....... 8
5. Crude 3B th Rates for Selected Countries of Latin America ............ ......................... . 10
6. Total F.-rl: l, Rates for Selected Countries of Latin America ...................................... 12


TABLES

1. Crude Birth Rates for Countries'Viri Reliable Trend Data, According to Various Sources. ........... ........ 14
2. Total FcrrITlt, Rates for Countries With Reliable Trend Data, A.L u i'..r. to Various Soirt-,s .. ............. 17
3. Average Annual Percent Change in Crude Eirt h Rates and Total Fertility Rates, According to Census Bureau
Estimates ....................... ........... ......... ............ ... .... .... 19
4. Representativeness of Countries 'A' ti Reliable Trend Data, by Region, .-\ .irii~r a to Midyear 1979 P.,jpu-l.iron
Estimates ................................ .... ................... ... ......... ... 20


















Fertility Decline in Developing Countries


SOURCES 01- DATA


In an examination of a'.' l.~Il-- trend data on crude birth
rates for -l'-, il.pini countries, researchers such as Mauldin' and
Tsui and Br,,4u?' have concluded that substantial declines in
fertility have taken place in recent years. On the other hand,
Ca .anauihq attempted to refute any claims of ,ecli hrnqm t-r riiir,
trends in major developing countries, concluding instead that
the data presented by the various researchers differed so greatly
that it was irrp,,';i .i, to determine trL' rates and hence
neither could one determine trends in those rates except in a
very few small countries.
This paper examines trends .,:firn or suggested by con-
sistent sets of data as determined by analysts at the U.S. Bureau
of the Census and, in many instances, confirmed by -alternate
consistent sets of data prepared by the other researchers.
Particularly because alternative sets of data do exist, it serves
no purpose to compare an estimate for one date as provided
by a given author to an estimate for another date prepared by a
ditter-en author. Therefore, this study is based on the premise
*that trends suggested by a reliable time series of estimates for
a country from a single body of data are inherently more
reliable, particularly in cases where the data presented by
alternative authors suggest the same trend, whether in the
presence or the absence of concurrence in the actual levels of
the rates. Spercficajll,', the purpose is to analyze a set of time
series data on both crude birth rates and total fertility rates in
selected less developed countries, to determine whether any
pattern of change can be observed during the recent past, and to
see to what extent the fn~r.ihii' can be generalized in terms of
world regions. Crude birth rates are considered because they are
the most iri.ii, available summary measure and require infor-
mation on only the total number of births and the total popula-
tion. Total fertility rates are less frequently available, as their
calculation also requires a Ir.i hut -.1i of total births by age of
mother and the number of women in each reproductive age
group. Nevertheless, when available, they are a better indicator
of ffer rlr.. precisely because they do take into account the age
structure of the female population and the lhit ,-intijl fertility
by age, thus !n-ir.nil the components more .Ji-t-ctr to the
population at ilidhij.a, irn. age.

'W. Parker Mauldin, "Patterns of Fertility Decline in Developing
Countries, 1950-75," Studies in Family '. i -,, ... 9, 4 (1978), pp. 75-84.
2Amy ,r'. Tsui and Donald J. Bogue i i'. World Fertility:
Trends, Causes. ... -..: .. Population Bulletin (Population Reference
Bureau), 33,4 (;'1"- 56pp.
3Joseph A. Cavanaugh, "Is Fertility Declining in Less Developed
Countries? An Evaluation Analysis of Data Sources and Population
Programme Assistance," Population -''. ,- 33, 2 (1979), pp. 283-293.


In conjunction with the World P../jua r.-; series, the U.S.
Bureau of the Census has recently prepared time series data for
the period 1950 to the present for crude birth rates and total
tililiii, rates for countries with a population of 5 nilli:n
or more having suitable benchmark data. The estimates used
in this paper are taken from the table "Benchmark Vital Rai-'s
for Selected Years S,'-'- 1950 in a recent report of the U.S.
Bureau of the Census4, supplemented in a few instances by
later benchmark data more -. .ntri, received and evaluated5.
Benchmark data represent those reported and estimated figures
which are based on reliable population censuses, vital registra-
tion systems, or sample surveys. They do not include any pro-
jected estimates of rates for years beyond the reference date of
the benchmark data. In general, the benchmark data are judged
to be reliable with respect to internal consistency and confor-
mance to other known demographic facts for each country. Si.-
cifically, this determination is made based on a comprehensive
evaluation and analysis of all reported data relating not only to
tIi' r, but also to mortality, migration, total population, ase
structure, and any other relevant measure about which infor-
mation is i.aiil 1,1. for the country. In most instances, Census
Bui ?,,i benchmark estimates of the crude birth rate and total
r:* i rate are thus accompanied by reliable estimates of the
crude death rate and the population growth rate. A prototype
of this estimation procedure may be found in the Rui-iu's
Country Demographic I'i.i' ,. series. Of the 27 countries
included in this study, complete profiles have been :;ul'.lislherl
for 17 of them. '.r:,\',, these rigid requirements were placed
on the data I.; ,.,, i.lI as having benchmark quality, the number
of countries with such data is limited. ,',ii.'uuli the Benchmark
Vital Rates table appeared in the publication for 45 of the 62
less developed countries with a population of 5 r ,l l. *i or more,
only 27 are included in this paper. In the other 18 countries,
benchmark ,;..iii', crude birth rates or total Itri,,r;,' rates
were .,. 1~1' for only one reference date or, as in three cases,
the estimated ranges in the rates for the crude birth rate and/or
the total fertility rate for two dates overlapped, so it was not
p,.-s,,':i;: to define a trend. In 17 other less developed countries
with a population of 5 -riii .. r or more, no historical benchmark
rates were i. i'.ii.i at all.



*U.S. Bureau of the Census, International Population Dynamics
''9' ''' 'Recent Demographic Estimates for Countries With a Population
of 5 Million or More,, ; i .. .. 1980.
'U.S. Bureau of the Census, '- i ,',- ._' Estimates for Countries
With a Population of 10 Million or '':*- 4, -;. ,...... ,.1 981.


INTRODUCTION








In this paper, various charts present data for crude birth
rates and total fertility rates as determined by the various
researchers. In all cases, countries and time periods are selected
on the basis of data availability according to the U.S. Bureau of
the Census benchmark estimates. For crude birth rates, Census
Bureau trends are presented along with estimates by Mauldin6
and the United Nations7. For total fertility rates, Census Bureau
trends are plotted with estimates by Tsui and Bogue8. The total
fertility rate projected by the United Nations9 for 1975 to
1980 is also shown, as derived from the gross reproduction rate
and an assumed sex ratio at birth of 1.05, to indicate whether it
falls in line with the benchmark rates estimated by the other
authors. For South Korea and Thailand, the trend as estimated
by the National Academy of Sciences10 is also presented for
both measures of fertility. Tables 1 and 2 present the actual
rates as plotted on the charts. In order to determine how much
fertility is thought to be changing in the various countries,
table 3 presents the average annual percent change in the crude
birth rates and total fertility rates, according to the Census
Bureau estimates. The change was calculated as an annual
average in order to allow for the differing time periods to which
the available data refer. Finally, table 4 indicates how repre-
sentative of their respective regions the particular countries
with trend data are. Representativeness is measured as the
proportion of each region's 1979 population that pertains to
the counties with trend data.

RESULTS

Africa

For Africa, the fertility data are very sparse indeed. Reliable
crude birth rates for at least two time periods are available for
only five countries, three of them in Northern Africa.
Census Bureau estimates show that the crude birth rates in
both Egypt and Tunisia were undoubtedly lower in the 1970's
than the 1960's, with the rate for Tunisia declining somewhat
more consistently and to a more moderate level than the rate
for Egypt. Both the crude birth rate and the total fertility rate
for Algeria also dropped slightly but remained at a generally
higher level than for the other two countries. Overall, these
trends are confirmed by data presented by the other authors,
although the actual levels differ at some of the reference dates.
Taken together, data for these countries, which constituted
about 61 percent of the population of Northern Africa in 1979,
suggest a slight to moderate decline of fertility in the subregion.
For Ghana, the limited data available for both the crude
birth rate and the total fertility rate suggest a conclusion of
"little or no change" in the rather high levels found in this


'W. Parker Mauldin, 1978, oc. cit. in footnote 1.
'United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, World
Population Trends and Prospects by Country, 1950-2000: Summary
Report of the 1978 Assessment, New York, 1979.
"Amy Ong Tsui and Donald J. Bogue, 1978, loc. cit. in footnote 2.
United Nations, 1979, op. cit. in footnote 7.
"National Academy of Sciences, Committee on Population and
Demography, Report no. 1, Estimates of Recent Trends in Fertility and
Mortality in the Republic of Korea; and Report no. 2, Fertility and
Mortality Changes in Thailand, 1950-1975, Washington, 1980.


country. Although the Tsui-Bogue estimates of the total
fertile, rate are slightly lower then the Census Bureau esti-
mates, the trend is basically the same. In any event, the data
can be taken to refer only to Ghana, which constitutes just 8.5
percent of the population of Western Africa.
For Kenya, the recent evidence indicates that there has been
an increase in fertility based on estimates of both the crude
birth rate and the total fertility rate from survey data for
1977-78 as compared with census data for 1969. This average
increase of 1 percent per year is not reflected by the Mauldin
or United Nations estimates (or the Tsui-Bogue data, in the case
of the total fertility rate), probably because the 1977-78 survey
data were not yet accessible at the time those estimates were pre-
parec rather than because there was actual disagreement about
recent trends. In any event, these rates representing the 12
percent of Eastern Africa's population found in Kenya cannot
be taken to represent the remainder of the subregion.
Finally, for Tanzania, trend data on only the total fertility
rate are available, showing a perceptible decline in fertility
(averaging about 0.8 percent annually, according to the Census
Bureau estimates). Trend data for other East African countries
are not available.

Asia

As in other demographic analysis on a broad regional scale,
the lack of solid information on fertility in mainland China
hampers any attempt at definitive generalization, although there
seems -o be little disagreement among expert observers that a
significant fertility decline has occurred in China in recent years.
Because of the persistent uncertainty of the Chinese data, they
are not presented here.
For the remainder of Asia, countries with available data on
fertility represent from one-half to four-fifths of the population
of the various subregions. Overall, 76 percent of Asia's popula-
tion in less developed regions (excluding China) is found in
countries with available trend data. With the possible exception
of Middle South Asia, it seems fair to conclude that there has
been a general downward trend in fertility in Asia.
In East Asia, trend data on both the crude birth rate and the
total fernlity rate are available for Taiwan and South Korea.
Data for both countries, which together represent 69 percent of
the population of the less developed regions of East Asia exclud-
ing mainland China, indicate a substantial reduction in fertility
over the past two decades or longer. During the 1970's, accord-
ing to Census Bureau estimates for available years, the total
fertility rate declined by well over 4 percent per annum in both
countries. Although the actual levels of the estimates vary
slightly among the different authors, the trend is unmistakably
downward in all instances, resulting in rates at rather low levels
by the erid of the period.
The trend is essentially the same in Eastern South Asia,
although the levels are more moderate than low. Here, trend
data on both the crude birth rate and the total fertility rate are
presented for Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand, which together
make up 59 percent of the population of the subregion. Total
fertility rate trends are available also for the Philippines, bring-
ing the representation to 72 percent of the subregion's popula-
tion for that measure. According to Census Bureau data for








available years in the 1970's, the average annual decline in the
total fertility rate was over 3 percent in Indonesia, over 2 per-
cent in Malaysia, and 4 percent in Thailand. Again, although the
alternative authors show some variability concerning the actual
level of the rates for a particular year, one must conclude from
any and all of the data presented that a decline in fertility has
taken place in the subregion.
For Western South Asia (more commonly known as the
Middle East), trend data on the crude birth rate and the total
fertility rate are available for only two countries, Syria and
Turkey. These two countries alone represent more than half
(55 percent) of the population of the region. Like the other
Asian regions discussed thus far, Census Bureau estimates show
a decline in fertility measures in recent years for both countries,
although the rates for Syria remain at a fairly high level while
those for Turkey are more moderate. For years with available
data in the 1970's, the total fertility rate declined annually by
1.4 percent in Syria and 1.8 percent in Turkey. As in other
cases, the trends, if not the precise levels, are confirmed by data
presented by other authors.
The one subregion of Asia where the trend is less clearly
defined is Middle South Asia. Estimated crude birth rates are
presented for India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka in this
subregion. Total fertility rates are presented for these same
countries with the exception of India. Among these countries,
only for Sri Lanka can one declare unequivocally that fertility
has declined appreciably and steadily over the last three decades,
resulting in rather moderate levels at the end of the period. In
India, although the crude birth rates for the most recent period
are clearly lower than they were in the 1960's, the decline has
not been as steady, nor does it appear to have begun as early as
in Sri Lanka. Minor fluctuations in the early 1970's may reflect
the greater uncertainty of the Indian data during this period and
further distort the trend.
An attempt to define a fertility trend for Pakistan and Nepal
is even less rewarding. For Pakistan, Census Bureau estimates
show little evidence of any change in either the crude birth rate
or the total fertility rate, although the Tsui-Bogue data indicate
a slight decline in the total fertility rate. For Nepal, the situa-
tion is even less clear. The analysis by the Bureau of the Census
suggests a small increase in fertility as determined by both
measures, while other researchers show it as steady or as declin-
ing slightly. A tentative conclusion of "little or no change"
seems to be appropriate for both countries.


Latin America

Of all the developing regions, Latin America exhibits the
most reliable data and the most clearly defined fertility trends.
For both the crude birth rate and the total fertility rate, about
88 percent of the Latin American population is found in
countries with reliable data. For South America, the proportion
is nearly 95 percent. For the Caribbean, these rates are represen-
tative of just over 50 percent of the population, mainly because
only countries with a population of 5 million or more were
included in the study. The Caribbean has only two countries
meeting the size criterion (Cuba and the Dominican Republic);


a number of the smaller islands which make up the rest of the
subregion also have good data but were excluded.
The fertility trends shown by the Latin America data indicate
overwhelmingly that fertility has been declining on the con-
tinent. In Tropical South America, most of the data for the
five countries represented show declines beginning at least since
the mid 1960's. Particularly notable (according to the Census
Bureau data) are the average annual declines in the total fertility
rate in Brazil of 2.5 percent during available years in the 1970's,
and in Colombia of 3.4 percent during 1964 to 1973 and 3.9
percent during 1973 to 1978. These trends are generally dupli-
cated by the other data sources in spite of minor differences in
the actual levels of some of the rates. In spite of these declines,
fertility in Tropical South America is still moderately high.
In Temperate South America, Chile shows a considerable
decline to levels even lower than those yet seen in the rest of
South America. Argentina, on the other hand, seems to show a
leveling off, or even an increase, in the crude birth rate, while
the total fertility rate data show a somewhat ambiguous picture
that would seem to merit further study before definitive con-
clusions can be drawn. Nevertheless, the levels of both the
crude birth rate and the total fertility rate in Argentina, as in all
of Temperate South America, have for a long time been far
below those in most other Latin American countries.
In Middle America, the trends, as represented by Guatemala
and Mexico, are not quite as generalized as in South America,
but the trend is nevertheless clearly downward. In Guatemala,
fluctuations of both the crude birth rate and total fertility rate
during the 1970's confuse the picture somewhat, but the rates
even then are clearly lower than they vWere during the 1960's.
In Mexico, the decline in fertility is more pronounced. Accord-
ing to the Census Bureau data for available years in the 1970's,
the total fertility rate in Mexico decreased by about 2.6 percent
annually. In general, these trends for Middle America are con-
firmed by data presented by the other authors.
The Caribbean, as determined by the half of its population
that lives in Cuba and the Dominican Republic, exhibits a
particularly large decline in fertility. For available years in the
1970's, both the crude birth rate and the total fertility rate
in Cuba declined by an average of 5 percent annually, according
to Census Bureau estimates, resulting in rates lower than those
observed in Temperate South America. In the Dominican
Republic, the various sources are unanimous in finding con-
siderable fertility decline, although they differ somewhat as to
the actual level of the rates for any given year. In spite of these
declines, however, the Dominican rates are still moderately
high.

CONCLUSION

The general picture described by the proper use of the
available information indicates that there has been a decline
of fertility in most of the developing world with data from
which reliable estimates can be made. If it is accepted that
fertility is also declining in China, then the skepticism ex-
pressed by Cavanaugh1 does not seem to have a strong basis.


'' Joseph A. Cavanaugh, 1979, loc. cit. in footnote 3.



















Figure 1. Crude Birth Rates for Sclected Countries of Africa


1.000 population



S5 U.S.B.C.




35 -








0 50 955 960 965 970 975
35ea




25

20




0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 19
Year


Rate per
1,000 population


Race per
1,000 populatOon


80
60


Egypt


55

50

45 -U.--
U.N.

40






25

20 -
IIIDIN


1950


1955 1960 1965
Year


Algeria


55



45 -MAULDIN %
40 -



35 -

U.S.B.C.
30 -

25

20
e a a -u s




S 1975
Yeat

International Demographic Data Center, U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1981.


1950 1955 1960 1965
Year


RUte per
1,000 population


Ghana


601 --

55

SMARULOIN
50

45

40

35

30

25I

20


'''*_____________________


1965
Year


1970


Rate per
1,000 population


Tunisia


1970 1975


55

5 6MAULDIN --


45 U.S.B.C.

40




30

25

20




0I IIIl


1970 1975


A.















Figure 2. Total Fertility Rates for Selected Countries of Africa


Rate per
woman
8.0


7.0 U


6.0


5.0


4.0


3.0


2.0

o1 1 I
1950 1955 1960


Ghana


I I I


.S.B.C.

TSUI-BOGUE
















I II
1965 1970 1975
Year


Rate per
woman


.0



U.N. 7.0


6.0


5.0


4.0


3.0


2.0

4' .4


1980


Kenya


1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1981
Year







Rate per Algeria

U.0


7. TSUI-BOG". U.N.


6.0


5.0


4.0


3.0


2.0

I I I I


1950 1955 1960



International Demographic Data Center, U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1981.


Rate per

6.0

0 U.N.
7.0


6.0



5.0


4.0


3.0


2.
4' .4 I a


0 1950 1955 1960


1965 1970 1975 1980
Year


Tanzania


TI I IU



TSUI-BOGUE


I I I I


TSUI-BOGUE
U.-- U.N.

U.S.B.C.















I I I '


1965 1910 1975 1900


1965 1970
Year


1975 1980
















Figure 3. Crude Birth Rates for Selected Countries of Asia



East Asia


Rate per
1,000 population


55 -







35 -
1 U.S.8.C.
30 1

25 -

20


0f
as I l il l \ ><


China Taiwan


1950 1955 1960 1965
Year


1970 1975


1Io 'pultion Republic of Korea


50
so



45 U.S.B.C.



35 -

30 _

25 14AULDIN

20 .



I I I I
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 194
Year


Eastern South Asia


Indonesia


1950 1955 1960 1965
Year


Rate per
1,000 population


1970 1975


Malaysia


Rate per
1,000 population


International Demographic Data Center, U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1981.


Rate per
1,000 population


55

50
MAULDIN ,
450 U.N.


35 U.S.B.C.

30

25

20


I I I I I


Thailand


55

50

5 MAULDIN

0 U.N.


35 U.S.B.C.
: ,.0.c


25-

20




10 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 19,


55


S ...... MAULDIN

40 U- .S. .N. ....

35

30 -

25-

20



01 5 I I I 5
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980
Year











Figure 3. Crude Birth Rates for Selected Countries of Asia-Continued


Western South Asia


Syria


Middle South Asia


Rate per
1,000 population
^


Pakistan


Rate per
1,000 population


55

50
MAULDIN
45 .....U.N....
U.S.B.C.
40 -

35 -

30

25

20




1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 19
Year







Rate p" Turkey
1,000 population y
60

55

50 U.S.B.C.

45 -




35 U.N.
MAULDIN
30 -

25

20




50 1955 1960 1965 190 17 1
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 19


Year







Rate per India
1,000 population India
60


I I I I I


55

50

45

40

35

30

25

20


o1 I I I I


1950


MAULDIN




U.S.B.C.


1975 1980


1955 1960 1965 1970
Year


Year







Rate per
1,000 population Sri L ka
60


1950


1955 1960 1965 1970 1975
Year


International Demographic Data Center, U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1981.


Rate per
1,000 population


Nepal


55
U.N.

MAULDIN -
45
U.S.B.C.

40

35

30

25

20




180 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 197


,, .I I I I
S 55

50


MAULDIN -- W

40 U.S.B.C. U.N.

35 -

30 -

25

20



I oi I I I I ,
1980 1950 1955 1960 1965 197l 1a9


#Jnn


is -

50 --

15
U.5.B.C.
to MAULDIN

35




U.N.

20 -

11 ,


5


u





















East Asia


China Taiwan


Rate per
woman


Figure 4. Total Fertility Rates for Selected Countries of Asia



Eastern South Asia

"' Indonesia ate"' palaysiae
.... Indonesia ..an Malaysia


.0 -

6.0


5.0


4.0-
,1TSUI-BOGUE

3.0
U.S.B.C.

2.0
I I .


1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 19
Year


80


50 I I
1950 1955 1960


:":,."' Republic of Korea I"'.
.0 I I I .I


7.0 7.0
U.S.E
U...B.C.


N.A.S.'Zs
5.0 5.0

4.0 -E.

TSUI-BOGUE

3.0 3.0


2.0 2.0

0 I I I I I I o7 I I
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1950 1955 1960
Year


International Demographic Data Center, U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1981.


UON.









I I


1965 1970 1975 1980
Year


Philippines

I I



I.C.


TSUI-













I I I


1


1965 1970 1975
Year


8.0


7.0


6.0
TSUI-BOGUE

5.0 Uo .

U.S.B.C.
4.0


3.0


2.0

oa I I I I I
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1981
Year







F.... Thailand
aR ..


I I I I


7.0


6.0


5.0


4.0


3.0


2.0

So1 I
980 1950 1955


TSUI- BOGUE


















1960 1965 1970 1975 19
Year


I I I




















I I


I












F iui r- 4. Total Fertility Rates for Selected Countries of Asia-Continued



Western South Asia

per Syria at, pn Turkey

8.0 8.0


7.0 -.. 7.0 -


6.0 6.0 -

TSUI-BOGOUE '"-~<^
5.0 5.0 -


4.0 4.0 -


3.0 3.0-


2.0 2.0

of p I Il o I I I I I
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980
Year Year




Middle South Asia

Sp Pakistan .. pe Nepal oao Sri Lanka

6.0 1 8.0 80

U.S.B.C. U.N.
7.0 7.0 7.0
T ***I .. U.S.B.C. U
TSUI-BOGUE SUI-BOGUE






< SUI-BOGUE


U.NN.
3.0- 3.0 3.0


2.0 2.0 2.0

oI i I I I -I : ...._ ........_.... j jJ... '( L L L
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 *.. 1980 l
Year Year Year

International Demographic Data Center, U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1981.
















Figure 5. Crude Birth Rates for Selected Countries of Latin America



Tropical South America


Rate per
1,000 population


Brazil


1975 19


1950 1955 1960 1965
Year


Ra
1.
60

55

50

65

40


35

30

25

21




0


te per
000 population


1950 1955


Colombia


1960 1965 1970 1975
Year


19


Rate per
1,000 population
60.


Ecuador


55 -



i5 U.S.B.C.








25 -

20I



I I I lI


Rate per
1,000 population
60


Peru


25 25

20 20




1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 19
Year


International Demographic Data Center, U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1981.


MAULDIN

U.N



.sc
U.S.B.C.






I I I I I


I I I -1
1965 1970 1975 1980
Year


I I I I I


i U.S.B.C.



40
99001


35 -

30 -

25 -

20 -




80 1950 1955 1960


Rate per
1.000 population
60.


MAULDIN
U-S.B.C
u.s.0.c.


Venezuela


55

50

45

40


S U.S.B.C.


S ....... ..




- U.N. -


50 1955


1960 1965
Year


1910 15


1970 1975










Figure 5. Crude Birth Rates for Selected Countries of Latin America-Continued


Temperate South America
Rate Per Argentina
1,000 population ntina
60

55 -

50

45

40 -

35

30
U.S.B.C.
25 .......

20 U.N.



I I I l I
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 191
Year



.te per Chile
1,000 population
60I IIII -

55

50



U.N. MAULDIN








30
20 -




SI I I I I 1
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 19
Year


Rate per
1,000 population


Middle America

Guatemala


0I I I I

55 MAULDIN

50 V'-U.N.*



4 U.S.B.C.

35 -

30

25 .

20 .



SI I I I !
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980
Year



Rate pec Mexico
1,000 population Mexico
60..


1955 1960 1965
Year


I1 I I i I -


Rate per
1,000 population


Caribbean

Cuba


0 II I I i
0

55

50

45

40

35

30 MAULDIN U.N.

25



U.S.B.C.

I I I I I I
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 191
Year




population Dominican Republic
I I l


55
U.S.B.C.





MAULDIN ,*


30 -
35

30

25 -

20 -




80 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1I
Year


International Demographic Data Center, U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1981.


"I I I



U.N.


M USBCLDIN

U.S.B.C. -


1975


1970















Figure 6. Total Fertility Rates for Selected Countries of Latin America



Tropical South America


Brazil


kate pe.


Colombia


7.0


.C. 6.0 U.S..C


**U.N.- 5.0



4.0


3.0


2.0

I I I oI' I I I I I
1965 1970 1975 1980 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 198
Year Year


':,'" Peru





...

6.0


5.0


4.0


3.0


2.01

o, I I I I I
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975
Year

international Demographic Data Center, U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1981.


Rat per
.: nn


1.0


7.0


6.0


5.0


4.0


3.0


2.0


0 19


II


7.0


6.0


5.0


4.0


3.0


2.0

50 1955 16
1950 1955 1960


'.".'" ,'VellLeela

8.0 I I


7.0 -


6.0


5.0 TSUI-BOGUE -.. ~ .N.


4.0


3.0


2.0


1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 19f


Rate per


50 1955 1960


Ecuador


II I I I

U.S.B.C.

U.N.
STSUI-BOGUE -













S I I I I
Tsr8ou









i


1970 1975


U.S.


J ~
2














1900


--










Figure 6. Total Fertility Rates for Selected Countries of Latin America -Continued


Temperate South America


Middle America


nP Argentina ."r a Guatemala
i I e.o I IlIt .o
8.0 8.0





0 6.0

5.0 5.0


4.0 4.0

US..CN. 3.0 3.0
TSUI-BOGUE

2.0 2.0

: I I I I I III I I o 0
50 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1'


Year


Year


e per
an


Cuba


--

TSUI-BOGUE



U.S.B.C. -

*U.N.


I I I I I
950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980
Year


a.te per h Rate per Rate per
_man Chile -a.n Mexico woman Dominican Republic
.o 1 8.i I I I 8. I I I

.U..S.B.C.
7.0 7.0 U, c. 7.0


6 .0 6 .0 --- 6 .0 -U






U.N.
3.0 3.0 3.0


2.0 2.0- 2.0

0o I II I I oI I I I 0 II I I I
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980
Year Year Year

International Demographic Data Center, U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1981.


Rate

0.0


7.0


6.0


5.0


4.0


3.0


2.0

o1
19


Caribbean










Table 1. Crude Birth Rates for Countries With Reliable Trend Data, According to
Various Sources

Source Source
Country and year Country and year
U.S.B.C. Mauldin U.N. N.A.S. U.S.B.C. Mauldin U.N. N.A.S.


AFRICA
Algeria

1965 ................
1970................
1975................
1976................
1977 ...............
1965-70...........
1975-80.............

Egypt

1960................
1965................
1966 ................
1970................
1975................
1976 ................
1977................
1978................
1979 ................
1955-60..............
1960-65..............
1965-70..............
1970-75..............
1975-80..............

Tunisia

1960................
1965................
1966................
1970.......... .....
1975................
1976................
1977................
1978 ................
1960-65.............
1965-70..............
1970-75..............
1975-80..............
Ghana
1960................
1965 ...............
1970 ...............
1975................
1955-60..............
1965-70..............

Kenya
1960 ...............
1965 ..............
1969 ...............
1975 ...............
1977................
1965-70..............
1975-80.............

ASIA

China-Taiwan

1956................
1960...............
1965................
1966 ................
1970 ................
1975 ................
1976 ................
1977. ...............
1978................
1979 ..............
1980................
1950-55.............


49.8
47.5













44.0
43.1
41.0
37.1
38.6












46.5
41.3
36.5
36.7






47.9
50.0








50.2
50.8


ASIA--Continued
Republic of Korea

1956...... ..........
1957 ................
1958................
1959................
1960...... .. .......
1961..... ..........
1962................
1963................
1964...... .........
1965...............
1966...............
1967 ................
1968................
1969................
1970.... ..........
1971................
1972...... .........
1973 ... ..........
1974 ... .........
1975 ..... .........
1955-60. ..........
1960-65. ..........
1965-70.............
1970-75 .............
1975-80............


Indonesia

1960..........
1961..... ..........
1965..... ..........
1971..... ..........
1975 ...............
1960-65.. .........
1965-70 ............
1970-75 ............
1975-80.. ..........


Malaysia

1960... .. .........
1965.. .. .........
1970 ..... .. ........
1975 .. .............
1976..... ..........
1965-70. i ..........
1970-75. .........
1975-80. ..........

Thailand

1960. ...............
1970. ...............
1975 ..... .........
1955-60. ..........
1960-65............
1965-70............
1970-75....... .. .
1975-80. ..........


Syria

1960 ..... ..........
1965 ................
1975............
1976. ...........
1960-65.. ...........
1960-70.............
1965-70.............
1970-75............
1975-80............


See footnote at end of table.


38.2
38.4
41.9
41.8
42.1
39.6
38.1
37.6
34.0
32.2
31.9
30.3
31.2
30.8
29.8
29.8
29.3
27.3
25.9
22.8




































'43-46
36-38
32-36


42.4
38.7
31.4
28.8
26.4









46.9
44.9
41.5
37.9









40.1
37.3
34.6







47.2
44.9
43.7
39.6
37.5








47.4

47.8
46.5
45.2


46

42
36-38


43
39
32-36













44

49










Table 1. Crude Birth Rates for Countries With Reliable Trend Data, According to
Various Sources-Continued

Source Source
Country and year u A.S. Country and year ui N.A.S.
U.S.B.C. Mauldin U.N. N.A.S. U.S.B.C. Mauldin | U.N. N.A.S.


ASIA--Continued
Turkey

1960 ...............
1965 ...............
1975................
1950-55 .............
1955-60..............
1960-65............
1965-70 .............
1970-75.............
1975-80.............

India

1960 ...............
1965...............
1971 .............
1972 ................
1973 ................
1974................
1975 ...............
1976................
1977 ................
1978................
1950-55.............
1951-61..............
1955-60 ............
1960-65 ............
1961-71...........
1965-70.............
1970-75.............
1975-80.............

Nepal

1965................
1971 ...............
1975 ................
1965-70.............
1975-80.............

Pakistan

1960................
1961...............
1965................
1972 ................
1975 ................
1960-65.............
1965-70..............
1970-75 ............
1974-75............

Sri Lanka

1953...............
1960 ................
1963 ................
1965................
1971 ................
1975................
1976 ................
1977................
1978 ...............
1979 ................
1950-55.............
1955-60 .............
1960-65 .............
1965-70 .............
1970-75.............
1975-80......... ....


39
38
36
36
37
36
35
35

42-45


40-43


44.9
44.7
41.0
39.6
37.0
34.9














40.5

42.7
42.7

40.9
38.6
36.9







45.5
43.2









48.1
47.1
46.8















38.5
36.6
34.7
31.5
28.6
25.9


LATIN AMERICA
Brazil
1950.............
1960..............
1965.............
1970..............
1975. ..............
1950-55 ............
1955-60............
1960-65...........
1965-70.........
1970-75 ...........
1972-73 ............
1975-80 ..........
1976-77............

Colombia
1960...............
1964 ..............
1965...............
1973...............
1975...............
1977...............
1960-65 ...........
1965-70............
1970-75...........
1975-80 ...........

Ecuador
1960...............
1965 ...............
1950-55 ............
1955-60 ............
1960-65 ...........
1965-70.............

Peru
1965 ...............
1975 ..............
1970-75 ...........
1971-73 ............
'1975-80 ............
1977-78............

Venezuela
1960...............
1965 ...............
1971 ...............
1975 ...............
1950-55 ...........
1955-60............
1960-65.............
1965-70.............
1970-75............
1975-80 ............

Argentina
1955 ...............
1960 ...............
1965 ...............
1970 ...............
1976. ..............
1978................
1950-55 ............
1955-60 ............
1960-65 ............
1965-70 ............
1970-75...........
1975-80 ...........


See footnote at end of table.


35-36

31-33




46

34

29









47.8
47.0
46.1
44.2




38

40

36-41





37

46
46
45
39





25
23
22
23
26
25










Table 1. Crude Birth Rates for Countries With Reliable Trend Data, According to
Various Sources-Continued

Source Source
Country and year Country and year
U.S.B.C. Mauldin U.N. N.A.S. U.S.B.C. Mauldin U.N. N.A.S.


LATIN AMERICA--Con.

Chile


1950................
1955...............
1960 ...............
1965 ................
1970 ................
1975 ................
1978 ................
1979 ................
1950-55 ...........
1955-60..............
1960-65 .............
1965-70 .............
1970-75 ............

Guatemala


1950................
1960...............
1964. ..............
1965................
1970.... ............
1971................
1972................
1973 ................
1974 ................
1975 ...............
1976................
1950-55............
1955-60.............
1960-65.............
1965-70.............
1970-75.............


Mexico

1960..............
1965..............
1970.. .. .........
1975.... .........
1955-60.............
1960-65............
1965-70... .......
1970-75..J.........
1975-80.
1977-78.. J..


Cuba

1965. ... .........
1970...............
1975 .... ........
1976 ..... .........
1977 ... ............
1979 ..............
1965-70...........
1970-75..i........
1975-80.. .........

Dominican Republic

1960 .............
1965 .... .........
1970 .... .........
1975..............
1960-65 ............
1965-70............
1970-75.., ........
1974-75..,
1974-75.. ....
1975-80.. .........


U.S. Bureau of the Census (U.S.B.C.), 1980, op.cit. in fo.rn-n.re 4; United Nations (U.N.), 1979,
footnote 7; Mauldin, 1978, loc.cit. in footnote 1; and N'tional Academy of Sciences (N.A.S.), 1980,
footnote 10. Countries have been selected for inclusion on the basis of the availability of
data" for two or more dates according to U.S. Bureau of the Census evaluations. See text for a
of the qualities of "benchmark data."


'Early 1960's.


Source:
.cit. in
on.cit. in
r.ern:nin r
discussion











Table 2, Total Fertility Rates for Countries With Reliable Trend Data, According to
Various Sources

Source Source
Country and year Tsui- Country and year sui-
U.S.B.C Bogu U.N. N.A.S. USBC. ogue U.N. N.AS.
U.S.B.C. Bogue U.N. N.A.S. US.B.C. Bogue U.N. N.A.S.


AFRICA
Algeria

1968 ...............
1970 ................
1975 ...............
1977 ................
1975-80 .............

Ghana

1960 ................
1968 ...............
1970................
1975 ................
1975-80..............

Kenya

1968 ..............
1969 ...............
1975_ ...............
1977 ...............
1975-8 0...........

Tanzania

1967................
1968................
1973 ................
1975................
1975-80 ............


ASIA

China-Taiwan

1966................
1968...............
1970................
1975 ...............
1976.................
1977. ...............

Republic of Korea
1960 ...............
1961 ................
1962................
1963................
1964...............
1965 .. ............
1966. .............
1967 .............. .
1968. ...............
1969 ................
1970................
1971................
1972................
1973 ................
1974 ...............
1975 ................
1976................
1975-80 .............

Indonesia

1961 ................
1968 ...............
1971 ...............
1975. ...............
1967-70 .............
1975-80 .............


7.86

7.36




7.20

7.14







7.60

8.05




6.60

6.30








4.92

4.06
2.87
3.14
2.76



6.28





4.64



4.51




3.20
3.21




5.68

5.54
4.75-4.97
5.60


6.56


ASIA--Continued
Malaysia

1968...............
1970 ...............
1975...............
1976 ...............
1975-80 ...........

Philippines

1968 ...............
1975...............
1958-62............
1963-67...........
1968-72............
1975-80.............
Thailand
19604..............
1968..............

1975 ...............
1964-65.............
1975-80.............
Syria

1968 .............
1970 ...............
1975 ...............
1976 5..............
1975-80 ...........
Turkey

1968 ..............
1975 ...............
1965-70.............
1975-80 ...........

Nepal






Pakistan

1968. ..............
1975 ..............
1963-65............
1974-75.............
1975-80.............

Sri Lanka
1953................
1963 ..............
1968 ...............
1971 ...............
1975...............
1975-80............

LATIN AMERICA

Brazil

1960 ...............
1968...............
1970 ..............
1975 ..............
1972-73............
1975-80..........
1976-77....... ....


5.27
4.59
4.55






6.46
6.30
5.89



6.53

5.87
4.50-4.90
6.30




7.88

7.24





5.21
5.98





5.99
6.37






7.03
7.02




5.95
5.10

4,20








6.07

5.33

4.90-5.04

4.25-4.55


5.86

4.85




7.08

6.76





5.61
5.40





6.04

5.98




6.84
6.57








4.54

3.92








5.31

5.00


'6.3-6.6

5.4-5.8
4.5-4.9


See footnotes at end of table.










Table 2. Total Fertility Rates for Countries With Reliable Trend Data, According to
Various Sources-Continued

Source Source
Country and year Tsui- Country ad yearTsui-
U.S.B.C. Bogue U.N. N.A.S. U.S.B.C. Bogue U.N. N.A.S.


LATIN AMERICA--Con.

Colombia

1964.................
1968...............
1973 ...............
1975...............
1977................
1975-80.............
1977-78.............


rEuado

1968.................
1975................
1955-60............
1960-65..............
1965-70.............
1975-80..............


Peru

1968................
1975................
1962-64..............
1965-67..............
1968-70..............
1971-73..............
1975-80..............
1977-78 ............


Venezuela

1968................
1971 ...............
1975...............
1955-60.............
1960-65.............
1965-70..............
1975-80..............


6.74

4.65

3.92

3.75






7.00
7.00
6.80






5.61
6.04
6.25
6.35
5.88-

5.3-5.9





5.80

6.70
6.70
6.00


Argentina

1965..... .........
1968..... .........
1970..............
1975..............
1975-80...........

Chile
1960...............
1968...............
1970..... ........
1975..... ...... ..
1975-80............

Guatemala;
1964 ..............
1968..... ..........
1970...... ........
1971 ..... ........
1972 ..... .........
1973..... ........
1975 ..... ........
1975-80...........

Mexico

1960...............
1968..............
1970...... ........
1975..... .........
1975-80 .. ........
1977-78.. ........

Cuba

1968 .... ........
1970 ..... .........
1975. ..............
1976 ...............
1977. ..............
1975-80............


3.00

3.20





5.11

3.54
3.00




6.38

5.68
5.96
6.11
5.81


3.12

2.85





4.19

3.02


1Early 1960's.
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census (U.S.B.C.), 1980, op.cit, in footnote 4; Amy Ong Tsui and Donald J. Bogue, 1978,
loc. cit. in footnote 2; United Nations (U.N.), 1979, op.cit. in footn)or '; and National Academy of Sciences (N.A.S.),
1980, op.cit. in footnote 10, Countries have been selected for incliuion on the basis of the availability of "benchmark
data" for two or more dates according to Census Bureau evaluations. sFe trxt for a discussion of the qualities of
"benchmark data."


~I













Table 3. Average Annual Percent Change in Crude Birth Rates and Total Fertility Rates, According
to Census Bureau Estimates

Average annual Average annual
percent change percent change
Country Crude Total Country Crude Total

Time birth fertility Time birth fertility
period rates rates period rates rates


Northern Africa

Algeria................

Egypt .................


Tunisia..... .........


Western Africa

Ghana.................


Eastern Africa

Kenya. ................
Tanzania...............


East Asia

China, Taiwan..........


Republic of Korea.....



Eastern South Asia

Indonesia .............


Malaysia..............

Philippines...........


Thailand...............



Western South Asia

Syria.................



Turkey................


1970-1977
1960-1970
1970-1979
1970-1978




1960-1970




1969-1977

1967-1973




1956-1966
1970-1980
1960-1970
1970-1975




1961-1971
1971-1975

1970-1976

1958/62-1963/67
1963/67-1968 '72

1960-1970
1970-1975




1960/70-1970
1970-1976


1955/60-1960/65
1960/65-1965/70
1965 70-1975


-1.1
-1.8
+1.8

-1.6




-0.4




+1.0

(NA)




-2.7
-1.8
-2.9
-5.6




-0.9
-3.0

-1.0

(NA)
(NA)
-0.9
-2.6




-0.8
1.1


-1.2
-2.2
-1.1


-0.9

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)


Middle South Asia

India...............
Nepal ...... ........
Pakistan............

Sri Lanka..... .....




Tropical South
America
Brazil...............


+0.7 Colombia.............

-0.8


-2.6
a-4.6

-2.8
b4.8




-0.2
-3.1

-2.3

-0.5
-1.3
-1.0
-4.0




(NA)
-1.4


(NA)
(NA)
-1.8


Ecuador.............


Peru...............


Venezuela...........


Temperate South
America
Argentina...........



Chile...............



Middle America
Guatemala............


Mexico..............


Caribbean

Cuba................

Dominican Republic..


1971-1978
1971-1976
1961-1974/75

1953-1963
1963-1971
1971-1979




1960-1970
1970-1976/77

1964-1973
1973-1977

1955/60-1960'65
1960/65-1965/70

1962/64-1968/70
1971/73-1977/78

1955 /60-1960/65
1960/65-1971




1960-1965
1965-1970
1970-1978

1960-1965
1965-1970
1970-1979


1964-1971
1971-1976

1960-1970
1970-1977 78



1970-1979

1960/65-1970
1970-1974/75


(NA)
+1.3
c
C-(Z)

-1.4
-2.2
(NA)




-1.2
-2.5

-3.4
-3.9


-0.6

+0.9
e-1.3

-(z)
-1.7




(NA)
+1.3
(NA)

f-3.1
(NA)
-3.1


h-1.0
(NA)
-0.2
-2.6



-5.0

-1.8
-2.5


- Represents zero.


NA Not available. (Z
aRefers to 1970-1977.
eRefers to 1968/70-1977'78.
1970-1977.


) Less than 0.05 percent.
bRefers to 1970-1976.
fRefers to 1960-1970.


cRefers to 1963/65-1974/75.
gRefers to 1970-1975.


dRefers to 1973-1977/781
Refers to 1964-1973. Refers to


Source: Derived from data presented in U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1980, op.cit. in footnote 4. In most cases,
reference years were chosen to allow calculation of an average change that refers to a time interval of at least 5
years, but not more than 10 years. Where the data were presented as a range of rates (e.g., a crude birth rate of
"36-38"), the midpoint of the range was accepted as the rate. Where the reference years were presented as a range (e.g.,
"1960/70"), the midpoint was accepted as the year to be used in calculating the number of years in the interval.
Fractions of years were not used in calculating the interval.







20

Table 4. Representativeness of Countries With Reliable Trend Data, by Region, According to Midyear
1979 Population Estimates (Population in millions)

Crude birth rate Total fertility rate

Region Total Pooulation of Percent of Population of Percent of
population countries with region's countries with region's
of region trend datal population trend data population

Total LD(s:

All regions............................. 3,283 1,503 45.8 853 26.0
Excluing China......................... 2,271 1,503 66.2 853 37.6
Africa.... ..................... ............ 458 93 20.3 63 13.8
Asia....... ................................... 2,467 1,099 44.5 479 19.4
Exclu, ing China......................... 1,455 1,099 75.5 479 32.9
Latin Ameri ....................... ....... ... 353 311 88.1 311 88.1
Oceania. .................................... 5r

LDCs With a Population of 5 Million or More

All regions............... ....... ..... ... 3,172 1,503 47.4 853 26.9
Excluding China......................... 2,159 69.6 853 39.5
Africa............................................ 413 93 22.5 63 15.3
Asia....... .................................. 2,436 1,099 45.1 479 19.7
Excl ding China......................... 1,424 1,099 77.2 479 33.6
Latin Ameri.:a ................................ 322 311 96.6 311 96.6
Oceania .................. ........... ......... ..... .

'Includie only countries with a population of 5 million or more in both panels of the table. These are the countries
for which .ita are presented in tables 1-3 and in the charts.
Less de eloped countries.
None o' the less developed countries of Oceania meets the minimum size criterion used.
Source: Figures for LDCs with a population of 5 million or more from U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1980, op.cit. in
footnote 4: those for total LDCs from U.S. Bureau of the Census, '.i.' i .- l 1 i ^, i.. -, .:. .~ .* i, E imlr. : f -.r
.. -ni r.orns of thrp IrlI, Washington, 1980,










INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH DOCUMENTS PREVIOUSLY ISSUED


No. 1. Population and Economic Planning-A Macro-Analysis (ISP-RD-1) GPO Stock No. 003-024-00999-4.

No. 2. Levels and Trends of Mortality in Indonesia: 1961 to 1971 (ISP-RD-2). GPO Stock No. 003-024-
01152-2.

No. 3. Projections of the Rural and Urban Populations of Colombia: 1965 to 2000 (ISP-RD-3). GPO
Stock No. 003-024-01160-3.

No. 4. Planning for Internal Migration, A Review of Issues and Policies in Developing Countries (ISP-RD-4).
GPO Stock No. 003-024-01465-3.

No. 5. Measurement of Infant Mortality in Less Developed Countries (ISP-RD-5).

No. 6. Afghanistan: A Demographic Uncertainty (ISP-RD-6).

No. 7. A Compilation of Age-Specific Fertility Rates for Developing Countries (ISP-RD-7).

No. 8. Techniques for Estimating Infant Mortality (ISP-RD-8).

RELATED REPORTS

World Population: 1979, Recent Demographic Estimates for the Countries and Regions of the World
(ISP-WP-79).

Demographic Estimates for Countries With a Population of 10 Million or More: 1981 (ISP-WP-81). GPO
Stock No. 003-024-03146-9.


Country Demographic Profiles

No. 4. Costa Rica (ISP-DP-4). GPO Stock No. 003-024-00124-1.
No. 5. Ghana (ISP-DP-5). GPO Stock No. 003-024-01467-0.
No. 6. Guatemala (ISP-DP-6). GPO Stock No. 003-024-01468-8.
No. 7. Panama (ISP-DP-7). GPO Stock No. 003-024-01470-0.
No. 8. Sri Lanka (ISP-DP-8). GPO Stock No. 003-024-01471-8.
No. 9. Jamaica (ISP-DP-9). GPO Stock No. 003-024-01472-6.
No. 10. Honduras (ISP-DP-10). GPO Stock No. 003-024-01473-4.
No. 11. Kenya (ISP-DP-11). GPO Stock No. 003-024-01474-2.
No. 12. Republic of China (ISP-DP-12). GPO Stock No. 003-024-01492-1.
No. 13. Chile (ISP-DP-13). GPO Stock No. 003-024-01491-2.
No. 14. Mexico (ISP-DP-14). GPO Stock No. 003-024-01493-9
No. 15. Thailand (ISP-DP-15). GPO Stock No. 003-024-01494-7.
No. 16. India (ISP-DP-16). GPO Stock No. 003-024-01495-5
No. 17. Republic of Korea (ISP-DP-17). GPO Stock No. 003-024-01496-3.
No. 18. Indonesia (ISP-DP-18). GPO Stock No. 003-024-01497-1.
No. 19. Brazil (ISP-DP-19). GPO Stock No. 003-024-01498-0
No. 20. Colombia (ISP-DP-20). GPO Stock No. 003-024-02121-8.
No. 21. Nepal (ISP-DP-21). GPO Stock No. 003-024-02122-6.
No. 22. Malaysia (ISP-DP-22). GPO Stock No. 003-024-02123-4.
No. 23. Morocco (ISP-DP-23). GPO Stock No. 003-024-02124-2
No. 24. Pakistan (ISP-DP-24). GPO Stock No. 003-024-02125-1.
No. 25. Turkey (ISP-DP-25). GPO Stock No. 003-024-02126-9
No. 26. Bangladesh (ISP-DP-26).
No. 27. Botswana (ISP-DP-27).
No. 28. Liberia(ISP-DP-28). GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFCE380997/24
fU.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE: 1983-380*997/2411




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