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Title: IFPRI report.
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Title: IFPRI report.
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Creator: International Food Policy Research Institute.
Publisher: International Food Policy Research Institute.
Publication Date: 1976-1978
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Table of Contents
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Full Text
"sS.D 0 "

Board of Trustees

Sir John Crawford, Chairman
Australian National University, Canberra
Ralph Kirby Davidson, Vice Chairman
Deputy Director. Social Sciences Division
The Rockefeller Foundation, New York
Ojetunji Aboyade
Vice Chancellor
University of Ife. Ife
Nicolas Ardito Barletta
Regional Vice President, Latin America
and the Caribbean
The World Bank, Washington, D.C.
David E. Bell
Executive Vice President, International
The Ford Foundation, New York
Norman E. Borlaug
Director, Wheat Program
Centro Internacional de Mejoramiento
de Maiz y Trigo. Mexico
Mohamed El-Khash
The Arab Center for the Studies of Arid
Zones and Dry Lands. Damascus
Ivan L. Head
International Development Research
Centre. Ottawa
Nurul Islam
Assistant Director-General
Food and Agriculture Organization of the
United Nations, Rome

*Affonso C. Pastore
Fundacao Centro de Estudos do
Comercio Exterio, Rio de Janeiro
*Puey Ungphakorn
Former Rector
Thommasat University, Bangkok
Lucio G. Reca
Professor of Economics
University of Buenos Aires
Roger Savary
Former Secretary-General
International Federation of
Agricultural Producers, Paris
Sir Andrew Shonfield
Professor of Economics
European University Institute, Florence
Snoh Unakul
Bank of Thailand, Bangkok
V A. Vyas
Indian Institute of Management.
*Ruth Zagorin
International Development Research
Centre, Ottawa
John W. Mellor, Ex Officio
International Food Policy Research
Institute. Washington, D.C.

*Retired September 1978

REPORT 1976-1978

International Food Policy Research Institute
1776 Massachusetts Avenue, N.W, Washington, D.C. 20036


Origins and Objectives. ............................................. 3
O rigins... . . . . . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . .. . .. . . . 3
Objectives and Approaches. ...................................... 6
Research Programs and Results. ...................................... 9
Trends and statistics .......................................... 9
Production policy. ........................................... 12
Consumption policy. .......................................... 18
Trade policy......................... ............................ 21
Agricultural development strategy .............................. 25
Information Services. ............................................. 27
Statistical Services. . .......................... .......... 29
Publications. .. .. .................. ......................... 30
Personnel...................................... .... ........... 34
Financial Statements. ............................................. 35

3 REPORT 1976-1978

1. Origins and Objectives

This is the first published report which describes in detail the full range of activities of
the International Food Policy Research Institute, past, present, and planned. It is
intended not only to report on the Institute's activities during the past two years but
to serve as a reference point for those who wish to know more about the origins
and objectives of this new international institution, and how it has set out to fulfill
the mandate foreseen for it by its founders.

i. Origins

IFPRI does not owe its origins to any single factor but rather to the confluence of
In January 1973 the Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) to the Consultative
Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR), following discussions with
staff of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and with
social scientists working in the field in developing countries, expressed concern about
the weak links between farm level socio-economic research and the translation of its
results into public policy. The TAC noted that the application of the results of agri-
cultural research is often vitiated by policy decisions which scientists have little op-
portunity to influence and which they may not even be able to foresee when attempt-
ing to develop new technology. In addition, the flexibility of farmers to adopt research
results is limited by many matters beyond their control, but which can be influenced
favorably or adversely by government policies. Research is therefore needed to help
illuminate the choice of policymakers and to offer guidance as to the potential con-
sequences of their decisions.
Similar concerns were expressed at a meeting sponsored by the U.S. Agency for
International Development (USAID) under the aegis of the CGIAR in Washington
in July of the same year, to review the directions of socio-economic research in de-
veloping countries. This meeting was attended by members of the TAC, the CGIAR,
and eminent social scientists from institutions in eight developing countries. They
noted that individual governments may also be able to exert only limited leverage on
matters of global or regional significance related to agricultural production, trade,
or fiscal policy; particularly when normal patterns are suddenly disrupted by unfore-
seen events. It was concluded that there is a need for research and monitoring of
broader aspects of agricultural and food policy, and that such research might hope-
fully lead to the avoidance of or alleviation of major food crises.
Following these meetings, the TAC established a subcommittee to study these
problems and how best to approach them. At its eighth meeting the TAC endorsed
its subcommittee's recommendation that an autonomous world food policy research
institute be established with a mandate to undertake independent analysis of global
socio-economic problems affecting world agriculture and relations between regions
and countries, with priority to research and related activities concerned with the


major issues affecting food production, utilization, and trade. It was hoped that the
work of the institute would complement that of FAO, the World Bank, and the In-
ternational Agricultural Research Centres, and that it would collaborate closely with
these as well as with national institutions. However, a valuable role was anticipated
for it in being able to undertake research on key issues that might have sensitive
political or social connotations, and thus provide guidance to national and interna-
tional planners and governments on measures required to improve the management
of agricultural resources to increase world food supplies and to achieve a more
equitable distribution of available food.
As a result, in July 1974 the TAC recommended the establishment of a world
food policy research institute to the CGIAR. At the subsequent CGIAR meeting,
three nongovernmental members of the Consultative Group-the International
Development Research Centre of Canada (IDRC), the Ford Foundation, and the
Rockefeller Foundation-agreed to accept initial responsibility for sponsoring such
an institute.
At this time the world was in the grip of a particularly severe food crisis precipitated
by poor weather over large areas of the globe. This was exacerbated by a fertilizer
shortage that reflected poor industrial planning. The resulting high grain and fertil-
izer prices created heavy burdens on low income countries that were simultaneously
facing sharply higher oil prices, a sudden decline in food aid, and a deterioration in
export opportunities that further limited their capacity to import foodgrains. This
crisis bore heavily on the interests of developing and developed countries, and in
1974 led to the convening of an emergency World Food Conference in Rome under
the auspices of the United Nations. The aim was to discuss ways to maintain
adequate food supplies and to harness the efforts of all nations to abolish hunger
and malnutrition.
The Conference called for the reinforcement of technical and socio-economic
research on the food problems of developing countries, at both the national and
international levels, as a means of finding solutions to the unprecedented difficulties

5 REPORT 1976-1978

their governments were facing in feeding their people. The three sponsors therefore
decided to go ahead with the establishment of the proposed institute, and as a result
the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) was incorporated on March
5, 1975, with headquarters in Washington, D.C.
With the recommendations of the TAC and the outcome of the World Food Con-
ference, IFPRI was given a mandate to maintain an independent review of the
global food and agriculture situation, to undertake analysis of major policy issues with
international implications, and to study specific food policy questions of priority con-
cern to developing countries. IFPRI was expected to play an important role in trans-
mission of information to policymakers and others concerned with food policy,
through the results of its own research and, in the broader sense, by providing a
focal point for the exchange of ideas and the accumulation of knowledge on crucial
issues, methodology, and approaches to their solution.
Because food is such a basic human need, affecting all people everywhere, but
especially the poorer classes in developing countries who spend the highest propor-
tion of their income on food, and because food dominates agricultural production
in most developing countries and thus contributes most to rural income and employ-
ment, it was decided that the limited resources of the new institute would be con-
centrated largely on policies related to food production, trade, and distribution. The
inter-relationships between food and other agricultural products, and the wider con-
siderations of national and international economic policy within which food and
agricultural policy must be framed were also to be studied.
It will be seen from the description of its programs in this report that IFPRI has
undertaken research on relevant matters of agricultural policy of wide significance
that transcend food production per se but which are inextricably linked to the solu-
tion of food problems. Examples include analysis of alternative policies for land use
in Africa, or study of the implications of trade liberalization for agricultural exports of
developing countries, particularly as they bear on the ability to finance food imports,
and work on policies for irrigation development, input use, and agricultural research
To help achieve these objectives IFPRI has assembled a staff which, though
relatively small, is highly experienced in research and policy determination and im-
plementation. The senior staff of 21 represents 14 nationalities. Fifteen members of
the staff are from developing countries.


IFPRI's evolution and the formation of its program has been guided by a Board
of Trustees which is both truly international in character, and highly distinguished
and widely experienced in the field of agriculture. Its fourteen members are from ten
nations, and seven Trustees are from developing countries.
As an independent, nongovernmental body with a Board of Trustees and a re-
search staff diverse in their intellectual and cultural backgrounds, IFPRI is able to
maintain an objective position and to approach and analyze intrinsically sensitive
issues in a manner which gives its findings widespread acceptability and credibility.

ii. Objectives and Approaches

In formulating its research program IFPRI has responded to the five categories of
recommendations made by the World Food Conference. These were: to increase
food production in developing countries; to improve food intake and nutrition; to
achieve food security; to increase the quantity and efficacy of food aid; and to in-
crease the effectiveness of world trade in meeting food needs.
In the pursuit of these objectives IFPRI has sought to establish complementary
working relationships with organizations of the United Nations system. This has
proved mutually beneficial. For example, the principal organizations established by
the World Food Conference were not provided with the resources to undertake the
kinds of research and analysis contained in its recommendations. Two have there-
fore drawn upon IFPRI's research capacity and output as a basis for policy formula-
tion. IFPRI is also collaborating closely with FAO, the principal U.N. organization
responsible for agriculture. Thus, at FAO's request IFPRI is applying its trade model
to analysis of the effects of reduced trade restrictions on agricultural exports of
developing countries in support of FAO's Agriculture Towards 2000 project. On
FAO instigation it is undertaking research on estimating national expenditures on
agricultural development. Conversely, IFPRI is an important user of FAO data and
analysis and TAC has been generous in providing information on technical matters.
The growing symbiosis between the two organizations is illustrated by the agreement
of the Director-General of FAO to IFPRI's holding its first 1979 Board Meeting at
FAO headquarters in Rome.
While IFPRI's Washington location has proved no disadvantage in its collaboration
with FAO, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD),
the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), and other relevant
international organizations based in Europe, it has proved of the utmost value in
enabling it to capitalize on the vast human resource and information base related to
agricultural policy research and development in North America. In particular IFPRI

7 REPORT 1976-1978

has developed excellent working relationships with the World Bank, the Inter-
American Development Bank, and the CGIAR. IFPRI is now working
with FAO and USDA to reconcile and improve world food production data.
The United States government requested IFPRI's participation in a task force on
food aid. IFPRI research on food aid and food security formed the basis for its con-
tribution, which is now being expanded to include a special analysis of Sahelian food
security issues.
The World Bank invited IFPRI to participate in a joint analysis of food policy in
Bangladesh. This analysis contributed to IFPRI research on two price systems for
concurrently maintaining production incentives and subsidizing consumption of the
poor, work which forms the basis for part of its expanding research collaboration with
IRRI. Subsequently, the government of Bangladesh requested an IFPRI staff member
to assist it in implementing a recommendation from the World Bank/IFPRI study to
establish a high level government capacity to analyze food policy issues.
Because IFPRI can integrate a wide geographic and disciplinary coverage on food
policy issues, it has been able to make a complementary contribution to the efforts of
the World Bank (which has drawn on IFPRI's research, for example, in its World
Development Report), as well as to the Asian Development Bank (which utilized
IFPRI data in its second Asian Agricultural Survey), various regional banks, and the
International Fund for Agricultural Development.
IFPRI is also being asked to an increasing extent to contribute to the work of other
bodies concerned with world or regional development policy, such as the Trilateral
Commission and the Brandt Commission. The latter has recently requested IFPRI
to prepare background paper on agricultural development with emphasis on its re-
search results.
Since IFPRI staff believes that technological change forms the basis for future in-
crease in Third World agricultural production, close association with the CGIAR
system is essential to the larger contribution the Institute hopes to make, and has
always been an important objective of its program and in the development of its
working linkages. For example, at the request of the TAC, IFPRI undertook a study
on criteria and approaches to evaluating international agricultural research priorities.
That study tabled at the June 1978 Nairobi meeting of TAC is the first step in an ex-
panding research program on expenditures and resource allocations related to na-
tional as well as international research systems. IFPRI's report on training needs for
research to the CGIAR meeting in 1977 falls in the same category.
Collaboration with the production science centers on the wide range of resource
allocation and price issues affecting the application of agricultural technology and the


effective demand for increased output is central to the Institute's work. The Board
of IRRI has noted the importance of such broad issues to successful application of
new rice technology, and has encouraged IFPRI collaboration with IRRI and the
International Fertilizer Development Centre (IFDC) on analysis of rice policy. A joint
project is under development.
Because of the importance of wheat in trade, the research of IFPRI on food se-
curity issues is of special interest to the International Maize and Wheat Improvement
Centre (CIMMYT). The consequence was a joint CIMMYT/IFPRI conference in No-
vember 1978 on food security. Substantial developing country participation in that
conference highlighted the difficulty of applying international schemes to individual
country problems and indicated the need for analysis in order to evolve appropriate
modification of such schemes. Collaboration with other International Agricultural
Research Centres is also expanding. For example, IFPRI recently participated in a
meeting held at the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) in Colombia
to help plan seminars for policymakers.
As it matures, IFPRI expects to be in a position to provide a point of contact for
social science personnel in the Centres. IFPRI is just beginning to play this role, which
it hopes will be helpful to social science work in the CGIAR system.
IFPRI is exploring avenues for relating to the several strong national centers of
research on food policy that are located in advanced countries. IFPRI's broadly in-
ternational staffing, its primary concern for developing countries, and its contacts
with research institutions in developing countries should be an asset in forging such
In the final analysis IFPRI's value will be judged on the impact of its research on
helping to provide guidelines to policymakers, particularly to those responsible for
decision at the national level in Third World countries. Three main avenues are
being followed to further this objective. First, the Institute is progressively developing
working relationships with national research and development institutions in develop-
ing countries. This is gathering impetus as its core research program crystallizes.
Second, the strong component of experienced people from the Third World on its
Board of Trustees and its staff, both provides a vital link to policymakers in develop-
ing countries, and an essential input of knowledge and realism to its research
programs concerning agricultural priorities and problems in those countries. Al-
though IFPRI does not have a formal training program, the continuing flow of Third
World researchers to its staff at various levels of seniority and for varying periods
provides an expanding base of contacts in Third World countries on which to build
IFPRI's future collaborative programs with national systems. In addition they make an
important direct contribution to its research output while at the Institute. Third, the
evolution of its information program, including research reports and other publica-
tions of the Institute, newsletters, seminars, and larger workshops or conferences,
will ensure not only that policymakers are aware of the results of IFPRI's research
but also that they are informed of other important developments bearing on agri-
cultural policy, and are enabled to participate more fully in discussions of key issues.

9 REPORT 1976-1978

2. Research Programs and Results

The Institute's research is divided administratively into four programs-trends analy-
sis, production policy, consumption policy, and trade policy. An integrated approach
to food policy problems is needed because much of the research cuts across two or
more of these areas.

i. Trends and Statistics

IFPRI's Trends Analysis Program assesses current and prospective food situations in
developing countries by projecting historical production trends into the future and
comparing the resulting output projections with anticipated food needs, using speci-
fied assumptions of the growth of population and per capital income.
This assessment, together with an examination of major factors underlying pro-
duction and consumption trends, provides the context for other IFPRI researchers
in their evaluations of national and international food policy changes. It is also
valuable to the work of such organizations as the World Food Council, the World
Bank, and FAO, as well as to national policy groups for placing their analyses in a
larger global framework.
Food Gap Analysis
In 1976, IFPRI inaugurated its research program with the publication of its first
research report Meeting Food Needs in the Developing World: Location and Magni-
tude of the Task in the Next Decade. This report deals with the critical world food
problem areas and the likely size of possible food deficits in the developing market
economy (DME) countries in 1985.
The report put concrete dimensions on the food problem by concentrating on
cereals, the major food staple in most of the developing world. Although foodgrain
requirements were considered in a global context by the 1974 World Food Confer-
ence, IFPRI disaggregated the total into the potential needs of 83 DME countries
and groups of countries with similar attributes (see Figure 1).
Based on a continuation of present trends in food deficit DME countries, IFPRI
projected a 1985/86 shortfall in cereal production of about 100 million tons-more
than double that of the 1974/75 food crisis.
Since most of these countries have extremely low incomes and little prospect of
earning sufficient foreign exchange to finance imports of such magnitude, the only
feasible way they will be able to meet food demand is to increase production more


rapidly. To eliminate the projected shortfall, the growth rate of cereal production will
have to increase from 2 to about 4 percent per year.
The core of the food problem was found in countries with per capital incomes of
less than US$ 200 in 1972, where 60 percent of DME population lives and where
most population growth will occur. These countries included India, Bangladesh,
Indonesia, Nigeria, and the low income Sub-Sahara countries.
In 1977, IFPRI updated and widened the scope of the earlier report. The second
report, Food Needs of Developing Countries: Projections of Production and Con-
sumption to 1990, looked five years further into the future and included other major
staple foods-root crops, pulses, and groundnuts-as well as cereals. Most impor-
tant, it estimated how much additional grain would be needed to feed the poor.
Using country-level production trends and projected food needs for 82 DME coun-
tries, the study concluded that by 1990 output of major staple food crops might fall
short of demand by 120 million tons with slow growth in income, and by 145 million
tons with faster income growth. Such projections indicate difficult times ahead for the
low income, food deficit countries, especially in Asia and Sub-Sahara Africa.
When projected output is compared with the quantities of food needed to meet
caloric standards, these problems become even more severe. To satisfy both market
demand and dietary needs by 1990, 170 to 185 million tons more than the pro-
jected production of major staples would be required.
Nearly 90 percent of the total calorie gap might occur in the low income, food-
deficit developing countries. Unless their food production increases rapidly, these
countries will require large food imports, probably in the form of food aid, if basic
human needs are to be met.

Production Trends in Selected Rapid-Growth Developing Countries
The 1977 report also showed that during 1960-76 a number of DME countries
achieved average annual growth rates in food production of 3.25 percent or more,
and output of major staples in Tunisia, El Salvador, Malaysia, and Pakistan grew at
more than 4.5 percent annually. An understanding of the real and statistical causes
of such growth rates would help guide policy for achieving faster growth in de-
veloping countries. As a result, IFPRI's Trends Analysis Program is collaborating with
the Production Policy Program in a comparative study of the major components of
increased food output in 16 DME countries selected to shed light on sources of high
growth rates.
Comparative Study of FAO and USDA Food Production Data
IFPRI's gap analysis work has noted some differences between USDA and FAO
country data on production and area of food crops. IFPRI is examining the data
series from these two major sources in order to help identify these differences in
order to contribute to their reconciliation.


-A L>A-- R B U C



SDeveloping Grain Exporters

SHigh Income Food Deflcitl
SMiddle Income Food Deficitb

SLow Income Food Deflcitb

a ,o caregzd high fore g, change eaner Source IFPRI Research Report No. 3, p. 28
5Wih foreignn change eonoiraicnI

Figure 1. Developing Market Economies by IFPRI Category


Future Work
To improve the food gap analysis, work has already begun on including data from
the People's Republic of China, which accounts for one-fifth of the world's staple
food crop production. IFPRI is also planning to expand its projections to bananas,
plantains, and sugar. With the inclusion of these commodities, the trend analysis will
encompass 80 to 90 percent of total calorie intake in most developing countries.
The estimation methods themselves are also being refined. Rather than simply
extending historical trends, future projections of crop output will attempt to remove
the effects of extreme weather, and will also try to find immediate changes in trends.

ii. Production Policy
The Institute's production policy research has had three main thrusts: research re-
source allocations (in recognition of the vital role new technology must play in fu-
ture food production increase), investment requirements and efficiency (with particu-
lar emphasis on water resources in recognition of the dominant claim of irrigation for
fixed investment resources), and fertilizer policy (consistent with the dominant role of
fertilizer as a complement to new technology and as a claimant on working capital
Allocation of Resources to Agricultural Research
International Research Priorities
Late in 1977, the Secretariat of TAC asked IFPRI to work with it to determine
whether the resources allocated to the various international research institutes in the
CGIAR system corresponded to the importance of the crops studied.
Using data from 85 producing countries grouped according to commodities and
ecological zones (see Figure 2), IFPRI's analysis identified commodities, production
factors, and problem areas for continuing research. The report "Criteria and Ap-
proaches to the Analysis of Priorities for International Agricultural Research," Febru-
ary 1975, found that "an allocation of approximately 60 percent of international
agricultural research expenditures to cereals appears correct, although in relation to
their contribution to calorie and protein supply and their share of area and produc-
tion, it could be argued that investment in cereals research is low compared to cur-
rent investments in roots, tubers, pulses, and cattle."
According to this study, research on maize and rice would benefit the greatest num-
ber of countries; research on wheat, the next greatest. Even though millet and sor-
ghum are major crops in the poorer countries, a number of factors seem to dis-
courage expanding their production and to favor wheat and rice. Wheat, rice, and
meat are the main food imports of developing countries. To satisfy food needs, it
may be necessary to commit a larger share of research resources to rice and wheat.



Main Commodity Grouping



= Rice

Ecological Grouping'
Temperate/Mediterranean Winter Rainfall Zone
(100-200 Day Growing Season Modified By
Semi-arid Tropical Summer Rainfall Zone (75-150
Day Growing Season).
Sub-humid Tropical Summer Rainfall Zone (150-
210 Day Growing Season). Cropping Pattern
Often Modified By Altitude.
Lowland Humid Tropical-Mainly Asia. (180-365
Day Growing Season). Rainfall May Be Bimodal
With Several or No Dry Months.

Main Commodity Grouping Ecological Grouping'
|II Starchy Crops/Rice Humid Tropical-Africa, Length Of Growing
Season Increases From North To South In West
Africa. Rainfall May Also Be Bimodal.
Mixed Crops (India) Range From Warm Temperate To Humid Tropical
SMixed Crops (China) Range From Cold Temperate To Sub-Humid
Note: 'In the temperate or tropical highland regions both cold and aridity may
limit the length of effective growing season; in the lowland tropics rainfall
and high temperature are the dominant climatic influences The map
must be interpreted with caution as illustrative of very broad crop/country
generalizations: for example areas of desert are not differentiated

Figure 2. Developing Countries Grouped by Major Commodities and Ecological Zones


Priorities within current wheat and rice research efforts may also need to be shifted
to reflect the needs and production potentials of different agroclimatic zones and the
rising demand for wheat in the tropics.
This report noted that most developing countries find it difficult to provide
adequate support for research on such crops as sweet potatoes, yams, broadbeans,
chickpeas, soya beans, cowpeas, pigeonpeas, and many vegetables and fruits. Only
one or two countries cultivate a large enough area (exceeding a million hectares) of
these crops to justify a concentrated national research effort. Yet, the International
Agricultural Research Centres would begin to dissipate their resources if they at-
tempted to act as substitutes for national programs on such crops. However, an in-
ternational research commitment can be justified for three widely distributed com-
modities-cassava, Phaseolus beans, and groundnuts-because a large food crop
area is devoted to them in 20 or more countries and because they are important
either as efficient sources of energy (cassava) or protein (beans, groundnuts). In
order to tackle other crops of more localized importance, international assistance
might be used to reinforce appropriate national institutions.
IFPRI's report on research priorities disclosed three other relatively high value,
labor intensive crops in a number of producing countries, with little international
research investment: cotton, bananas/plantains, and sugarcane. All have important
implications for foreign exchange earnings in developing countries, and two of them,
cotton and sugarcane, offer the possibility of a twofold payoff to greater research
efforts: as raw materials alone and as raw materials that can be used to supply indus-
tries to process them.
IFPRI's study concluded that the current allocation of resources between research
on commodities, the understanding and management of the physical resources for
production (climate, water, and soil), and the efficient use of agricultural inputs
merits further examination. Research that concentrates on the management of inputs
such as fertilizer and irrigation currently receives approximately 13 percent of inter-
national agricultural research support. However, the increasingly important contribu-
tion to output expected in the next two decades from irrigation and fertilizer probably
means that expenditures in these areas are too low compared to research spending
on, for example, genetic improvement of specific minor crops. Research on agricul-
tural inputs was stressed as a priority.
Several other policy issues were also identified as deserving added attention. These
include a possible reordering of commodity and regional research priorities; assess-
ment of the impact of technology on employment; and the choice of appropriate
technology given the cost, productivity, and availability of labor in different geographic
and agroclimatic regions. These issues are all closely linked; thus, for example, a
shift in the distribution of income might alter the demand for different foods and
result in the need to reassess commodity research priorities.

15 REPORT 1976-1978

Strengthening National Research Systems
In addition to studying international research priorities, IFPRI is examining the
needs of national research systems in Third World countries.
Each year, donor members of the CGIAR and the directors of the International
Agricultural i Research Centres meet to review and evaluate programs. For a special
forum on training at International Centers Week in September 1977, IFPRI prepared
"Training Requirements for Research and Its Application-An Overview," which con-
cluded that the allocation of additional resources to information, education, and train-
ing is crucial to improved research capacity in developing countries. Although the
number of skilled research and extension personnel has increased markedly in the
last decade, many more are needed at the national and regional levels to develop
agricultural technology appropriate to the developing countries.
Subsequent analysis drawing on recent data completed just prior to the 1978
International Centres Week ("Current and Projected Agricultural Research Ex-
penditures and Staff in Developing Countries") confirms that significant progress
appears to have been made in a number of developing countries compared to esti-
mates made at the time of the World Food Conference. It also shows, however, that
the countries that are most dependent on agriculture often spend the smallest pro-
portion of their gross domestic product on research, and that there are marked
regional imbalances, with two-thirds of the scientists in the 65 countries studied
located in less than 10 countries.
In addition to a need to train some 85,000 new graduate scientists to enter re-
search services during the next 15 years, the report shows that there are grave weak-
nesses in numbers and quality of supporting technicians for laboratory research, field
experimentation, and seed production which, if not remedied, will impede both re-
search and the adoption of its results.
Moreover, if farmers in poor countries are to benefit from research they will need
technical assistance from adequately trained personnel at various levels, as well as
grass roots training directed to the farming community and the farm family. As the
report points out, "IFPRI's ongoing analysis of agricultural performance since 1961
in the main food deficit countries indicates the failure of a large number of these
countries to attain relatively modest growth rates in food production. This failure does
not stem mainly from their inability to achieve proposed targets for resource de-
velopment, but rather from a shortfall in growth rates of yields because farmers are
unwilling or unable to adopt the appropriate technology." These findings imply that
a massive investment in building up human skills is necessary.
To complement these broad studies on international agricultural research and
manpower requirements, IFPRI is preparing a study on Nigerian agricultural research
to test the criteria developed in relation to international research priorities at the
national level in a developing country with dynamic economy and in a wide range of


Investment Requirements
At the request of the Consultative Group on Food Production and Investment
(CGFPI), in 1977 IFPRI began a study to estimate the investment required over the
next 15 years to bring food production up to demand in 36 low income, food deficit
DME countries. All the countries studied had an average per capital income below
US $350 in 1974, and at least half of their population was employed on the land.
Their total population of about 1.25 billion represents approximately 33 percent of
the world's inhabitants and about 68 percent of the people in the DMEs.
The prevention of further deterioration of the food situation in these countries is
a formidable task. Even though major strides in family planning are occurring, they
are unlikely to reduce population growth within the next 15 years to significantly
change the rate of increase in the demand for food. With population projected to
rise at 2.7 percent annually, merely to maintain 1975 per capital consumption levels
will require production to grow faster than the 2.4 percent trend rate. To alleviate
malnutrition, food output will have to increase at a sustained 4.4 percent per year,
an agricultural growth rate that is rare in developed or developing countries.
A first priority in assessing future needs and investment opportunities for boosting
food production is irrigation and drainage. IFPRI addressed the water resource de-
velopment issue by asking these questions: What is the additional area that can be
brought under irrigation between 1975 and 1990 through new projects and improve-
ment of existing irrigation works? How much of this land would be devoted to food-
grains? How much additional production would it yield? What are the additional
investment costs?
The study found that if irrigation targets are achieved, the use of complementary
inputs could produce an additional 80 million tons of foodgrains by 1990. But even
this increase would provide only 63 percent of the extra production required to
maintain per capital consumption at 1975 levels-45 to 50 percent of market de-
mand, and 38 percent of the basic nutritional requirements.
The capital cost of the irrigation program in the 36 countries studied is estimated
at US $45 billion (in 1975 prices). This works out to an average capital investment
of approximately US $570 to produce one additional ton of foodgrains each year.
IFPRI is examining the probable costs of various investment options, including al-
ternatives to capital-intensive approaches in resource development. Investment in ir-
rigation must be compared with alternative investments to develop rainfed agriculture
or infrastructure.

17 REPORT 1976-1978

Water resource development is a key to increasing food production for most Asian
developing countries. Therefore, the Production Policy Program is analyzing the
literature on economic aspects of irrigation in Asia to classify and identify policy vari-
ables related to the adoption of irrigation and means of transforming it from a tradi-
tional factor of production to a modern one.
In Africa, where there is very little irrigated area and the analysis of plans for water
resource development does not indicate a major change in the period covered by
the study, emphasis has been placed on the potential for increasing production from
rainfed land. Despite optimistic estimates by some authorities about the availability
of new land for cultivation in Africa, it is apparent from the low and declining yields
and the modest rate of expansion of arable area in many African countries that
there is an urgent need to raise the productivity of land and labor. The study con-
cludes that this will require carefully planned investments in roads, infrastructure,
disease control, settlement or resettlement of populations, and research and tech-
nology development; and that facile assumptions about cheap gains from "horizontal"
area expansion in Africa cannot be taken for granted.
The investment study has also led to work which has been undertaken at the
request of the World Food Council on the technology and related agricultural inputs
required to reach the 4 percent growth in food production targeted in the Council's
1977 Manila Declaration. The Production Program is focusing on policies related to
the development and application of new technology required for the main food
commodities and agroclimatic regions, and their implications for investment in re-
search and resource development, training priorities, and the quality of extension and
its link to research.
Economic Trade-offs Between Food and Cash Crop Production and Optimal Food
Policy Choices for East African Countries
Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania rely on a few export crops to earn the foreign ex-
change necessary to finance their development programs, but they are also low-
income, food deficit countries. Ideally, food production and export crop production
would both increase, and achieving the goals of one would not conflict with the
other. A current IFPRI research effort seeks to find out the extent to which the two
objectives are indeed in conflict. The study will also attempt to develop policy guide-
lines for achieving the appropriate balance between food and cash crop production.
Future Work
Asian rice policy research. IFPRI's Production Policy Program and its Trade Policy
Program have just begun a two-part study on macro-rice policy
in Southeast Asia in collaboration with IRRI and IFDC. This study,


which is being planned as a comparative research effort with four South-
east Asian countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Phillippines, and Thailand), represents
the first major "off-campus" research effort in which IFPRI plays the coordinating role.
The Production Policy Program will focus on the main variables-water resource
development, seeds, and fertilizers-that could increase the supply of rice in the
ASEAN member countries. The study will assess the investment opportunities for
water resource development for each ASEAN country, particularly irrigation's po-
tential contribution to increased rice production.
IFPRI will cooperate with the IFDC in establishing a comprehensive conceptual
framework to examine the factors that determine the growth of fertilizer use as a
second key variable for increasing food production in developing countries, includ-
ing those of the ASEAN region.
Linkages Research
The work of the Production Policy Program reflects an increasing concern with
how food production growth rates and growth in effective demand can be kept in
balance at high growth rates, particularly in the low income countries. This is neces-
sary not only to meet humanitarian objectives, but also to maintain the remunerative
prices that are essential to high rates of production growth. Research shows that
growth of effective demand for food is determined largely by the growth in the pur-
chasing power of the poor. Thus, the lower income deciles of the population spend
half or more of their income increments on grain alone, while those in the upper
income decile spend 10 percent or less of their income on grain. An analysis is there-
fore planned of how a rural-led growth strategy can affect market forces and how it
links to overall economic growth.

iii. Consumption Policy

IFPRI's Consumption Policy Program is concerned with a wide range of policy op-
tions. During its first two years, it has focused on more specific food distribution
policies, including:
1. improved quantitative measurement of the incidence and location of deficien-
cies in food availability and nutritional intake;
2. evaluation of the impact of intervention policies on food availability and con-
sumption among broad segments of the population;
3. evaluation of the distributional consequences of agricultural development
strategies and policies; and
4. study of the impact of food aid on the distribution of food consumption and the
means of improving its effectiveness.
The results thus far show that food subsidy-ration schemes can make an important
contribution to the improvement of food consumption levels. But the efficiency of
such systems in reaching those with the greatest need is generally low and the costs
of attaining given consumption goals are correspondingly inflated. Moreover, only a

19 REPORT 1976-1978

part of the food put through the ration system results in a net increase in consump-
tion; the remainder tends to depress prices received by farmers. When public pro-
curement schemes are used to solve that problem by simultaneously maintaining
prices to farmers, the costs quickly become very high.
Food Policy System in Bangladesh
In 1977, IFPRI joined the World Bank and the government of Bangladesh in
studying the management of the food policy system in Bangladesh in order to
recommend improvements. Preliminary results and policy recommendations are con-
tained in a report issued by the World Bank. A more extended analytical version of
the report will be published by IFPRI.
The joint IFPRI/World Bank analysis found that food policies in Bangladesh have
tended to be crisis-oriented and at times contributed to unstable food prices while
failing to provide either adequate incentives to farmers or stable supplies to con-
sumers. These policies also hamper the goals of improved food consumption levels
and future food self-sufficiency.
For city dwellers, the subsidy/rationing system has been a considerable help. Two-
thirds of the public distribution of foodgrains in Bangladesh goes to urban con-
sumers, although only about 9 percent of the country's population is urban. The
ration has been very successful in supporting the consumption level of the urban pop-
ulation's poorest 20 percent, whose food intake appears to have increased by 15 to
24 percent. However, ration supplies go to rural areas only after urban requirements
have been met. Since the ration system is the sole means for bringing imported sup-
plies to consumers, in very bad years-the system tends to reduce food security among
marginal groups.
The study recommended a number of important changes for the ration system,
1. a reduction in the size of the ration quotas issued;
2. a gradual elimination of eligibility for higher income consumers; and
3. a substitution in the ration of wheat and atta (flour) for rice.
The study also suggested that the government procurement system be reorganized
to place an effective floor under harvest prices. Procurement and imports could be
used in conjunction with open market sales to minimize what appeared to be ex-
cessive seasonal price fluctuations.
A major recommendation of the study called for the establishment of a govern-
mental body to oversee and coordinate national food policies. To facilitate the work
of such a body, a simplified framework was developed to help coordinate procure-
ment and imports, rationing, open market sales, and storage policies. This program,
which has become the focal point for major national and international food policy
decisions in Bangladesh, seeks to:
1. ensure adequate supplies to avoid sharp fluctuations in consumer prices;
2. provide incentives to producers to increase the degree of self-sufficiency;
3. satisfy the needs of the poorest consumers through an internal distribution
program; and
4. coordinate food aid policy of the major donors.
The government of Bangladesh asked IFPRI to work with it to devise means of im-
plementing the policy proposals put forward in the joint IFPRI/World Bank study.


Impact of Subsidized Food Consumption on Nutrition in Kerala
To measure the effect of subsidized rice consumption on food intake and child
nutrition, IFPRI analyzed data on incomes, food consumption, and nutrition in low
income households in rural Kerala, India. Preliminary findings indicate that among
lower income households, subsidized rice from the ration shop system contributed
one-fifth of their caloric and protein supplies. Without the subsidized rice, a net
decline in intake of both calories and protein could be expected, even though open
market purchases of rice would increase. Subsidized rice consumption was also
positively related to the nutritional status of children because of caloric and protein
improvements in the household's diet. Despite the clear benefits to the poor of sub-
sidization, more subsidized rice was available to middle income groups than to the
lower income groups during periods of limited supply.
Procurement of rice within the state for the ration supply also affects the distribu-
tion of income within the faring community to the benefit of small farmers. As a
food deficit state, in the national context, Kerala is favored by the existence of the
ration system. Such benefits must be weighed against possible welfare losses in
surplus states.
Minimum Price and Storage Policies in Northeast Brazil
With the interest and logistical support of the Bank of Northeast Brazil, IFPRI
recently analyzed Brazil's program of storage loans for corn, rice, beans, and cotton.
The investigations found that producers and their cooperatives-the target benefici-
aries of the program -received less than 25 percent of funds in most years, with
most loans going to a few-primarily large producers and handlers. Moreover, the
study found no evidence of reduced variations in producer prices in Northeast Brazil
as a result of the program.
In addition to pecuniary incentives, which are apparently substantial, use of the
program by farmers appears to be limited by other factors. Encouraging producer
cooperatives to use the program might improve small farmer participation.
Future Work
The Consumption Policy Program plans to pursue its work on food distribution
policies. A comparative analysis of the effect of rationing schemes drawing on the
individual country studies already undertaken for Bangladesh, India, and Sri Lanka is
planned. This work will be extended to a broad review of the use of subsidies
and targeted intervention policies as means of raising consumption. Work will also be
initiated in collaboration with national institutions on studies to compare the con-
sumption impact of alternative intervention policies under field conditions.
Other areas of planned research include evaluating the distributional consequences
of agricultural policies in the Southeast Asia region. Emphasis will be placed on esti-
mating the structure of demand for food and on measuring the impact of changes in
rice prices and production on incomes and purchasing power of the poor. Special
attention will also be directed to the potential role of cheaper substitutes for rice as
components of the diet.

21 REPORT 1976-1978

iv. Trade Policy
Most developing countries depend increasingly upon imported foodgrains, a depend-
ence that is likely to grow in the next decade. Also, increased food insecurity as
a result of weather fluctuations and trade policies designed to protect domestic food
markets from changes in world supply and demand have meant greater price and
supply variability.
Negotiations are currently being conducted under the auspices of UNCTAD/GATT
(General Agreement on Trade and Tariffs) on a number of international agricultural
policy issues, including international cooperation to stabilize prices in the grains
market, trade liberalization, and market stabilization arrangements for agricultural
export commodities.
The Trade Policy Program has focused its research efforts on these and related
topics of immediate policy relevance, including:
1. agricultural export prospects for developing countries;
2. food security;
3. food aid studies; and
4. commodity market analysis.
Agricultural Export Prospects for Developing Countries
In January 1976, the Trade Policy Program inaugurated its research program by
publishing Commodity Trade Issues in International Negotiations. This discussed
various approaches to negotiating commodity trade arrangements and considered
other international trade and monetary policies affecting the agricultural export
earning potential of developing countries.
Potential of Agricultural Exports to Finance Increased Food Imports in Selected
Developing Countries, a second report, which was published in August 1977,
presented a brief description of the aggregate trade and payments picture and high-
lighted some of the economic pressures faced by many developing countries. The
IFPRI study found that the problem of financing food imports may indeed become a
barrier to adequate consumption in many countries and that the close relationship
between food deficits and trade prospects cannot be understood without careful
study at the country level.
Among the 28 representative countries selected for closer examination, the study
found that for some low and middle income countries production variability poses a
more serious problem than low growth rates. Furthermore, it concluded that income
level is not necessarily a good indicator of whether or not a country will face foreign
exchange constraints in meeting future food deficits.
Analysis of export performance disclosed that about half of the 28 countries had
suffered a decline in the world market share of their principal agricultural exports.
This indicates that domestic policies can be as important as world demand in de-
termining a country's export success. The study analyzed the impact of one ex-


ternal factor on exports and trade liberalization. It concluded that even if trade barriers
to agricultural products were completely removed in the Organization of Economic
Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries, the relative gains for most of the
countries studied would be slight.
Additional research is continuing on agricultural export prospects for food deficit
developing countries. Related to IFPRI's larger effort in this area is the proposed
collaboration with FAO on its Agriculture Towards 2000 project. FAO's Commodity
Policy and Projections Service has requested that IFPRI analyze in greater detail the
potential increase in agricultural exports that would result in the developing countries
if tariffs and nontariff barriers were removed in developed countries by the year 2000.
One case study, "Growth Potential of the Beef Sector in the Economic Context of
Latin America," analyzed growth potential of beef exports from developing countries
under freer trade policies. This report, coauthored with a senior economist of
CIAT, identifies the economic forces in beef production and in the
domestic and export markets, and relates them to the
need for future development in the context of tropical Latin America. The analysis
concludes that a 50 percent reduction in OECD trade barriers could boost the value
of beef and veal trade by 51 percent, increasing annual export revenues by US$
406.1 million.
The report points to the dilemma policymakers often face when considering ex-
panding exports of "wage goods" which are central to consumer diets, such as beef
in South America. On the one hand, freer trade policy causes pressure on the cost
of living and on domestic consumption, but has a positive impact on production and
foreign exchange earnings. On the other hand, "cheap food" policy benefits con-
sumers across all incomes, but reduces private investment and export growth.
IFPRI is also examining the generalized systems of preferences (GSP) established
by the OECD to reduce tariffs on selected developing country exports. Data showing
the trade value of all agricultural exports covered by GSP are being analyzed to iden-
tify production categories with particularly good potential for expansion.
Food Security for Food Deficit Developing Countries
The international community's responsibility for the food security of food deficit
developing countries is one issue in the negotiation of a new International Wheat
Agreement. In the event that a comprehensive price-stabilizing buffer stocks agree-
ment does not occur, a more modest plan will be needed to alleviate the year-to-year
food insecurity problem of food deficit developing countries. Researchers at IFPRI
developed a food security scheme based on insurance principles that was designed
to assist food deficit countries. The scheme is described in Food Security: An In-
surance Approach, Research Report 4. The objective of the scheme is to permit
these countries to stabilize cereal consumption within a range of projected demand at

23 REPORT 1976-1978

relatively stable cost. This approach reflects IFPRI's belief that the food security
needs of the poor in low income countries have to be met separately from the larger
problems of dealing with instability in world grain markets. This instability often re-
flects the direct and indirect effects of the demand for grain to feed the livestock de-
manded by consumers in high income countries.
Two alternative schemes evaluated were (1) a compensatory financing mechanism
and (2) a financing mechanism combined with a physical grain reserve. Under both,
compensation from the scheme would be permitted whenever a developing country's
cereal import bill exceeded a specified percentage of the trend import bill (e.g.,
110, 120, 130 percent of trend). When the scheme includes grain stocks in addi-
tion to compensatory financing, grain would be released only during very high
price years and only to countries experiencing a production shortfall of more than 5
percent during those years. Rules were specified so that a country could maintain at
least between 95 and 100 percent of projected consumption in all years, depending
upon the performance of its own cereal production.
Research shows that a scheme with both funds and stocks is slightly more cost-
effective than a scheme with just funds. Also a scheme that includes stocks has the
advantage of providing a supply guarantee to back up the financial insurance, and
is likely to be preferred by potential developed country contributors. Without a phys-
ical reserve, the additional purchasing power acquired by developing countries could,
in periods of particularly short supply, pressure developed countries to make politi-
cally unacceptable adjustments to their own domestic consumption or cause the
scheme to fail because of the imposition of export controls. The physical reserve
would also provide an outlet for surplus stocks that accumulate in certain developed
exporting countries in low price years.
The analysis also showed that relatively low insurance coverage and relatively large
stocks would make the best use of a given level of funds. (Including a grain reserve
at a given level of funds also makes it more probable that the scheme will achieve its
The expected cost of a scheme operating with a 20 million ton grain reserve cover-
ing food import costs in excess of 130 percent of trend is $2.6 billion in compensa-
tory payments and $1.1 billion for the grain reserve over the next five years. This level
of funding would assure at least a 75 percent probability of the scheme achieving its
objectives. Additional funding of about $2.4 billion would increase this probability to
about 90 percent.
A crucial component in the success of any food security scheme is the source and
management of funds needed for its operation. With the proposed scheme, develop-
ing countries could make annual premium payments based on their expected with-
drawals from the system. In practice, most low income countries could probably not
afford to participate unless their payments were subsidized by developed countries.
Developed countries could make their contributions bilaterally or through a multi-
lateral mechanism. Donor countries could subsidize the premium payments of low
income countries or make concessional food aid available to lower the cost of imports
for recipient countries, thereby reducing the cost of their food security premiums. As
an alternative, donors could pay the carrying costs of the reserves.


One potential means of funding could be through the compensatory financing
facility of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), either by including cereal import
expenditures in the IMF's existing compensatory financing facility for commodity
exports or by creating a new facility.
One of the questions raised by IFPRI's analysis of an insurance approach to food
security concerns the role existing grain reserves and food aid programs would play.
If a new International Wheat Agreement is negotiated, grain reserve commitments
by participating countries would affect the operation of a food insurance scheme
in high price years. Even without an agreement, the presence of reserve stocks held
unilaterally in certain developed countries would have to be taken into account.
Furthermore, negotiators are considering incorporating countercyclical food aid com-
mitments in a new Food Aid Convention. If such commitments are agreed upon
multilaterally, or are incorporated into the bilateral food aid programs of major
donor countries, they too will affect the level of food insurance required by certain
developing countries and the method of operation of the scheme. How these poli-
cies can be effectively integrated is another subject of IFPRI's research.
The concept of food security is also being refined. Variability of domestic cereal
production is only one measure of food insecurity; and for several developing coun-
tries it is an inadequate one. IFPRI is developing a single quantitative measure of
food insecurity by incorporating the following variables:
1. degree of food self-sufficiency;
2. patterns of domestic food consumption and degree of substitutability between
cereals and noncereals during shortages;
3. breakdown of the variability in the food import bill attributed to fluctuations in
domestic production and in world prices;
4. size of the food import bill in relation to the availability of foreign exchange in
country; and
5. relationship between the variability in the food import bill and the overall
balance of trade and capital flows.
A taxonomy of country situations based on such a single measure could aid in
assessing how a country's food security is affected by changes in the external en-
Food Aid
The World Food Conference recommended a collective minimum food aid target
of 10 million tons of grain a year for donor countries based on their past performance
and on an assessment of probable food aid requirements in the crisis year 1973-
1974. A more realistic basis for assessing food aid requirements will be needed if the
concept of minimum food aid target is to be taken seriously by donor countries.
In 1978, IFPRI reported preliminary findings from a comprehensive analysis of
food aid in "Programming United States Food Aid to Meet Humanitarian and De-

25 REPORT 1976-1978

velopmental Objectives," a paper that was contributed to a larger Brookings Institution
study assessing U.S. development assistance strategy. The paper noted that food aid
of more than 70 million tons a year would have been needed in 1975 to close the
calorie gap in 49 countries designated as needy by international agencies. Annual
U.S. food aid flows since 1973 have been less than one-tenth that amount. More-
over, the report found little relation between individual country calorie needs and
actual levels of past food aid, with as much as a third of all cereal food aid in 1971-
1975 going to countries classified as middle income or oil exporters.
The analysis also stressed the need for assuring that food aid would be used as a
tool to increase domestic production, and not as a disincentive to domestic produc-
tion, so that food aid could eventually be phased out.
The Trade Policy Program will continue to work on establishing statistical criteria
to identify the portion of the calorie gap that food aid can effectively fill. In addition,
the program is assessing the impact of food aid as a resource transfer which affects
trading patterns of recipient countries.
Future Work
Structure of international commodity markets
IFPRI is studying the international marketing systems of rice and wheat. An analy-
sis of the international rice market is forthcoming, and additional work on other
aspects of the rice trade are planned.
National trade policies
IFPRI plans country-level research on agricultural trade policy options regarding
pricing, stocks, and international trade. In collaboration with the Trends Analysis Pro-
gram, a classification for food deficit countries will be developed based on the general
economic conditions of a country and its growth prospects for the next decade.
As part of the joint IFPRI/IRRI/IFDC study on rice policy in Southeast Asia, the
Trade Policy Program will focus on the ASEAN countries' domestic trade policies
for rice and their interaction with the world rice market.
IFPRI has also begun an analysis of trade policies for agriculture in Colombia,
which it is working on in conjunction with the University of Los Andes. Other future
work includes study of the relationship between developed country farm policy and
developing country food supplies.

v. Agricultural Development Strategy
Agricultural Growth and Economic Growth
Most of the world's population is still living in countries that are largely rural.
Economic development of these countries depends on agricultural development
which, in turn, depends on agricultural policies that are geared toward development.
Because the interdependence of agriculture and the rest of the economy is explicit,
IFPRI is analyzing the relationship of agricultural growth to overall economic growth.
The purpose of the analysis is to define empirically the relationships between agri-
culture and the rest of the economy as development proceeds. Establishing these


relationships makes it possible to trace the quantitative contribution of variables to
the growth of the two sectors of the economy, as well as their terms of trade and
the factor prices that could be paid in the two sectors.'Several of the variables
studied include technical change of various forms, saving rates, demand parameters,
and rate of population growth.
The model is both empirically and policy oriented. It is possible to fit the model to
country data and evaluate quantitatively either the role actually played in economic
development by certain variables or the consequences that various policy measures
would have had on the development of the economy.
The model is unique in that it takes account of the fact that resource allocation
takes time. Furthermore, the rate of allocation is determined within the system by
economic variables. This process can be used to describe the migration of labor and
the flow of savings from agriculture to the rest of the economy with empirically esti-
mated labor migration and savings flow equations.
Integrated into the model, these equations in turn reflect the way the intersectoral
flow of resources shapes growth in agriculture and the rest of the economy. Using
Japanese data yields with the model, it was concluded that the flow of savings out
of agriculture did not contribute significantly to Japan's overall growth, in contrast to
a view commonly expressed in the literature. Labor migration was found to be far
more important.
The model, which was originally written for a closed economy, is being expanded
to allow for foreign trade. Because Argentina provides a good historical example of
a country that is heavily dependent on trade and that has also alternated its trade
policies, the new version will use Argentine data. The comparison should provide
some insight into the importance of physical resources in economic growth since
Japan, poor in resources, realized a spurt in growth while Argentina, rich in physical
resources, has been largely stagnant.
In the future, IFPRI plans to apply the model to other countries to analyze specif-
ic policy issues.
Government Expenditures in the Agricultural Sector
A study of government expenditures in the agricultural sector has been recently
initiated by IFPRI. The purpose of this research, the need for which became clear as
a result of the investment study referred to earlier, is to develop methodology for
the analysis of the interaction between total expenditure and expenditure on agricul-
ture. The study, which will be undertaken in nine Latin American countries for the
period 1950-70, will measure government expenditures in agriculture for research
and extension; irrigation; health, education, and housing; new inputs subsidies; elec-
tricity; transportation; marketing; and new lands.

27 REPORT 1976-1978

3. Information Services

The major objective of IFPRI's Information Services Program is developing con-
tinuing information exchange links with policymakers, administrators, and national
and international leaders in and out of government in developed and developing
countries and to publicize and increase understanding of food policy alternatives at
the national, regional, and international level. In order to accomplish these objectives,
the Information Services Program works closely with IFPRI's research programs.
A first priority of the Information Service Program is to identify and reach a core
of individuals who, because of their positions, make or influence policy decisions re-
lated to food and agriculture. These include national and international leaders and go
beyond officials of such government ministries as agriculture, finance, planning, or
commerce. The Information Service Program tries to make available relevant infor-
mation on food policy issues and progress in their solution. IFPRI is accomplishing
this goal through its publications and its work with national and international research
and technical assistance organizations.
For example, IFPRI's estimates of future food needs have been utilized substan-
tially by the Second Asian Development Survey carried out under the auspices of
the Asian Development Bank, by the World Food Council, by the World Bank in its
World Development Report, and by numerous national and private agencies. The
estimates of investment requirements to achieve accelerated food production growth
rates have been used to provide support for the World Food Council's statement of
resource needs. The food security work has been examined by the World Food
Council and the International Wheat Council. At the special session of the TAC of
the CGIAR held in Nairobi in June 1978, IFPRI's analysis of research allocations
was a central point of discussion. The Institute's analysis played a major role in the
1977 deliberations of the United Nations Protein-Calorie Advisory Group. The food
aid study was incorporated in the Brookings Institution's report on foreign assist-
ance to President Carter and in a special PL 480 task force report. IFPRI staff mem-
bers attend the FAO Food Security and Food Aid Committee meetings, where they
are able to report on the Institute's research and obtain insights to guide future re-
search in useful directions. IFPRI is providing extensive analysis to the World Agrarian
Reform and Rural Development Conference, on whose Advisory Panel the Director
sits. A major paper based on IFPRI's research was prepared for the Brandt Com-
mission, to which the Director made a major presentation on food policy. The Trends
Analysis Program is working with FAO and USDA to improve the usefulness of the
aggregate data base for food production trends, while the Trade Policy Program is
using its model for analysis of trade liberalization in support of FAO's Agriculture
Towards 2000 project.
The second priority of the Information Services Program is to develop a continuing
seminar and workshop series to bring together policymakers to discuss key issues
and policy alternatives and actions. In addition to promoting the overall objectives
of the Information Services Program, these meetings encourage feedback from mem-
bers of the target audience that helps IFPRI analyze and evaluate changing policy
issues and alternatives.


During 1978 IFPRI sponsored a series of seminars that were based largely on
ongoing research. These included discussions on insuring food security for develop-
ing countries; the impact of subsidized food consumption on nutrition in Kerala;
Brazil's minimum price policy and the agricultural policy in India and their implica-
tions for growth and social justice; research constraints to rice yields in Asia; Indian
price policy; a framework analysis for food policy in Nigeria, trade and sectoral
growth in Argentina; aspects of agricultural marketing in Thailand; and criteria and
approaches to the determination of priorities for agricultural research.
An international conference cosponsored with CIMMYT was held at CIMMYT
headquarters in Mexico in November 1978. Food security as a problem of de-
veloping, food deficit countries with severe trade constraints was explored on the
basis of research conducted by IFPRI's Trade Policy Program. The conference dis-
cussed, as the primary objective of food security, holding year-to-year variations in
food consumption to acceptable levels while avoiding excessive investments in stocks
by countries that can least afford them.
The conference attempted to clarify the issue of food security, identify sources of
insecurity, assess the magnitude and nature of the problem in different country situa-
tions, and explore possible solutions to the problem within economic and political
Participants included researchers and policy advisors in developing and developed
countries, along with individuals involved in formulating policy at the country level
and in international organizations.
A further important objective of the Information Services Program is to meet the
information needs of IFPRI's own research staff, whose interests and activities are
constantly changing and growing. The library resource center is being developed to
bring together information from various sources in order to provide up-to-date in-
formation largely through periodicals and research reports from other institutions
dealing with food policy, economic development, and other related issues. A news
clippings service to abstract newsworthy developments on food policy, including
coverage of IFPRI's research, was also provided to IFPRI staff in 1977.
To improve internal communication, the Information Services Program publishes
Inside IFPRI, a weekly newsletter. It will soon publish a news bulletin, IFPRI Reports,
to inform the members of IFPRI's audience about ongoing and planned research;
IFPRI publications, seminar activities, conferences, cooperative relationships between
IFPRI and other institutions; matters of interest related to IFPRI's staff and Board of
Trustees; and timely food policy issues or other features of broad interest.
In 1977, IFPRI began to develop links with the news media to establish itself as a
reliable source for verifying and providing information about food policy and related
issues. During the year IFPRI had papers published in the PAG Bulletin of the
Protein-Calorie Advisory Group of the United Nations System, Christian Science
Monitor, Business Week, New York Times, The Review of Economics and Statistics,

29 REPORT 1976-1978

Economic Development and Cultural Change, American Journal of Agricultural Eco-
nomics, Journal of Development Economics, and Ceres.
In addition, the Information Services Program staff responds to public inquiries,
arranges briefing sessions for interested people and groups, and helps establish and
maintain information links with other institutions.

4. Statistical Services

For much of its analytical base IFPRI relies on the data collected by FAO, the
United Nations Economic and Social Department, the World Bank, IMF, USDA,
and other regional and national organizations in developing and developed countries
dealing with food and related issues. These statistics, which are acquired in the form
of tapes and computer printouts, form the core of IFPRI's data library and are sup-
plemented by data obtainable from the various publications available in IFPRI's regu-
lar library facilities. They will continue to provide a major input to the Institute's
projections work and research programs.
FAO country data on agricultural production, trade, and food balances constitute
a major part of IFPRI's data library. The production series starts from 1961, while the
trade series begins with 1970. FAO food balance sheets include the 1972-1974 aver-
ages on the consumption of calories, protein, and fats from different food items.
USDA time series data form another large component of IFPRI's data collection.
The country statistics on production and supply are complemented by data on supply
utilization, which has made the USDA data set convenient for purposes of produc-
tion and consumption projections. However, the commodity coverage of USDA data
is limited to cereals and a few selected export crops. Among other items of country
information in IFPRI's data library are U.N. population estimates and projections,
GNP estimates and balance of payments statistics from the World Bank and the
IMF, and fertilizer data from the Tennessee Valley Authority and IFDC. As a service
to the research community, IFPRI has been sharing these data with other research
institutions and individuals.
In support of studies on specific countries and groups of countries that are planned
by IFPRI's research programs, the data library has country-specific information which
IFPRI research staff members brought when they joined the organization. This will
continue to be expanded to include more detailed data on developing countries
acquired from national and regional sources. IFPRI's cooperative research programs
with the International Agricultural Research Centres, and national research and
development institutions and universities can be expected to provide a growing
volume of up-to-date primary information to supplement that entering the data
library from its present sources.



Research Report #1 -Meeting Food Needs in the Developing World: The Location
and Magnitude of the Task in the Next Decade, February
Research Report #2- Recent and Prospective Developments in Food Consumption:
Some Policy Issues, July 1977.
Research Report #3-Food Needs in Developing Countries: Projections of Produc-
tion and Consumption to 1990, December 1977.
Research Report #4-Food Security: An Insurance Approach, by Panos Konandreas,
Barbara Huddleston, and Virabongsa Ramangkura, October
Occasional Paper #1 Commodity Trade Issues in International Negotiations, by
Barbara Huddleston, January 1977.
Occasional Paper #2-Potential of Agricultural Exports to Finance Increased Food
Imports in Selected Developing Countries, by Alberto
Valdes and Barbara Huddleston, August 1977.

Forthcoming Research Reports

Impact of Subsidized Rice on Food Consumption and Nutrition in Kerala, by Shubh
Intersectoral Factor Mobility and Agricultural Growth, by Yair Mundlak.
Brazil's Minimum Price Policy and the Agricultural Sector of Northeast Brazil, Roger
Public Distribution of Foodgrains- Income Distribution, Implications and Effective-
ness: A Case Study of Kerala, by P. S. George.
Agricultural Investment and Input Requirements for Increasing Food Production in
Low Income Food Deficit Countries, by Peter Oram, Juan Zapata, Shyamal Roy,
and George Alibaruho.
Foodgrain Supply, Distribution, and Consumption Policies within a Dual Pricing
Mechanism: A Case Study of Bangladesh, by Rais uddin Ahmed.
Criteria and Approaches to the Analysis of Priorities for Agricultural Research, by
Peter Oram.
Food Production Trends in Selected Rapid Growth Developing Countries, by Kenneth
Bachman and Leonardo Paulino.
Comparative Study of FAO and USDA Production Data, by Leonardo Paulino.

31 REPORT 1976-1978

Other Publications

Ahmed, R., "Foodgrain Production in Bangladesh: An Analysis of Growth-Its
Sources and Related Policies"; in Agricultural Economics and Rural Social Science
Papers, Bangladesh Agricultural Research Council, Dacca, December 1977.
Fox, R., "Agricultural Pricing Policies in Developing Countries"; in T W. Schultz,
editor, Distortions of Agricultural Incentives, Indiana University Press, 1978.
-and Truran, J.A., "Resource Productivity of Landowners and Sharecroppers in the
Cariri Region of Ceara, Brazil"; to be published in-Land Economics, Vol. 55, No. 1,
February 1979.
Garcia, E. J., "Food Insecurity in Colombia: A Food Supply or a Poverty Problem";
presented at the CIMMYT/IFPRI International Food Security Conference, Mexico,
November 1978; to be published in a forthcoming book of the conference pro-
Gavan, J., "The Calorie Energy Gap in Bangladesh and Strategies for Reducing It";
presented at Conference on the Economics of Nutrition-Oriented Food Policies
and Programs, Bellagio, Italy, August 1977.
Hathaway, D., "Alternative Institutions and Other Agents of Change for Increased
Food Availability"; presented at the World Food Conference, Iowa State University,
June 1976.
-"Structuring National and International Food Policies: The Convergence of Politics
and Economics at Home and Abroad"; presented at Greater St. Louis World Food
Conference, St. Louis, Missouri, March 6, 1976.
-"The World Food Crisis-Periodic or Perpetual?"; presented at 25th National Pub-
lic Policy Conference, Clymer, New York, September 11, 1975.
Huddleston, B., "Grain Reserves, Food Aid and Food Insurance: How a Compre-
hensive Scheme Might Operate"; presented at the CIMMYT/IFPRI International
Food Security Conference, Mexico, November 1978; to be published in a forth-
coming book on the conference proceedings.
-"Market Impact of Grain Reserves"; presented at the U.S. Wheat Marketing Con-
ference, Tunis, Tunisia, June 1978; to be published in forthcoming report on the
IFPRI Research Highlights 1978: a brief summary of objectives and progress.
Koffsky, N., "What Has Happened Since the World Food Conference?"; presented at
Annual Agricultural Outlook Conference, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Wash-
ington, D.C., November 18,1978.
Konandreas, P., and Hurtado, H., "Analysis of Trade Flows in the International Wheat
Market"; Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 26, No. 2, November
-and Schmitz, A., "Welfare Implications of Grain Price Stabilization: Some Empiri-
cal Evidence for the United States"; the American Journal of Agricultural Eco-
nimics 60, No. 1, February 1978.
Mellor, J., "Nutrition and Agricultural Policy": in Beverly Winikoff, editor, Nutrition
and National Policy, MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 1978.


-"The Landed and the Landless-The Poverty Connection"; CERES, Vol. II, No. 1,
January-February 1978.
-"Basic Human Needs-A Development Perspective"; presented at the Interna-
tional Development Conference, Washington, D.C., February 1978.
-"Population, Food and Employment"; testimony presented to the United States
House of Representatives' Select Committee on Population, April 19, 1978.
-"Third World Development and the Demand for Agricultural Exports-The Role
of the United States"; presented at the Symposium on World Agricultural Trade:
The Potential for Growth; the Federal Reserve Bank, Kansas City, May 1978.
-"Agricultural Development: Objectives, Strategy and Policies"; presented to a meet-
ing of the Independent Commission on International Development Issues (the
Brandt Commission), Tarrytown, New York, August 28, 1978.
-"Food Price Policy and Income Distribution in Low Income Developing Coun-
tries"; in Economic Development and Cultural Change, Vol. 27, No. 1, October
-and Huddleston, B., "Programming U.S. Food Aid to Meet Humanitarian and De-
velopmental Objectives"; to be included in a Brookings Institution study, Assess-
ment of Development Assistance Strategies.
-and Lele, U., "Mobilizing Resources for Agricultural Growth-Strategy and Insti-
tutions"; presented at the Symposium on Institutional Innovation and Reform: The
Ladejinsky Legacy, Kyoto, Japan, October 10-12, 1977.
Mundlak;Y, "Occupational Migration Out of Agriculture-A Cross Country Analysis";
in The Review of Economics and Statistics, LX, No. 3, August 1978, by North-
Holland Publishing Company.
-and Strauss, J., "Occupational Migration out the Agriculture in Japan"; Journal of
Development Economics 5, 1978, North-Holland Publishing Company.
Oram, P., "Crop Production Systems: The Arid and Semi-Arid Warm Temperate and
Mediterranean Zones"; in a forthcoming book by the University of Utah, Soil and
Water Management for Crop Production.
-"The Changing Pattern of Constraints on Agricultural Production"; in T. W. Schultz,
editor, Distortions of Agricultural Incentives, Indiana University Press, 1978.
-"Agriculture in the Semi-Arid Regions: Problems and Opportunities"; presented at
the International Symposium on Rainfed Agriculture in Semi-Arid Regions, Uni-
versity of California, Riverside, April 1977.
-"The Resources for Agriculture, with Particular Reference to the Developing
Countries"; presented at the Food and Population Symposium at Stevens Point,
Wisconsin, April 1977.

33 REPORT 1976-1978

-and Roy, S., "Accelerating Foodgrain Production in the Low Income Food Defi-
cit Countries-Progress, Potentials and Paradoxes"; keynote paper at the Second
Review Meeting of I.N.P.U.T.S. Project, East-West Center, Hawaii, May 1978.
Paulino, L. "How to Interpret Experts' Projections"; in Christian Science Monitor,
January 12, 1978, pp B8-9.
Sarma, J. S., "India-a Drive Towards Self-Sufficiency in Foodgrains"; to be published
in Proceedings of the Annual Meetings of the American Agricultural Economics
Association, 1978.
Siamwalla, A., "Security of Rice Supplies: The Asian Region"; presented at IFPRI/
CIMMYT International Food Security Conference, Mexico, November 1978; to be
published in forthcoming conference proceedings.
Taylor, L., "Research Directions in Income Distribution, Nutrition, and the Economics
of Food"; in Food Research Institute Studies, XVI, No. 2, 1977.
Valdes, A. and Huddleston, B., "Assessing Food Insecurity in Developing Countries";
presented at IFPRI/CIMMYT International Food Security Conference, Mexico,
November 1978; to be published in forthcoming conference proceedings.
-and Nores, G., "Growth Potential of the Beef Sector in the Economic Context in
Latin America"; Fourth World Conference on Animal Production, Buenos Aires,
August 1978.


(As of December 1978)

J. W Mellor
P. Oram
M. P. Rafferty

Trends and Statis
L. Paulino
K. Bachman
B. Stone
P. Tillman

J. Gavan
P. S. George
I. Sri Chandrasekera

D. Narain
R. Ahmed
G. Desai
G. Alibaruho
S. Roy
J. Zapata

A. Valdes
B. Huddleston
A. Siamwalla
J. Garcia
P. Konandreas

Deputy Director
Director for

Program Director
Visiting Researcher
Coordinator of

Program Director
Research Fellow
Research Associate

Program Director
Research Fellow
Research Fellow
Research Associate
Research Associate
Research Associate

Program Director
Research Fellow
Research Fellow
Visiting Researcher
Research Associate

P. Critchlow

S. Bunjun
K. Michael

R. Donaldson

V Bindlish
P. Tseng

S. Kumar
R. Fox
S. Stefanou

V Elias
F. Idachaba
Y. Mundlak
J. S. Sarma
S. Mehra
K. Nguyen

J. Mclntire
V Ramangkura
E. Harris
J. Hayssen
T. Hobgood

Secretary to
Research Assistant
Research Assistant

Research Assistant
Research Assistant

Research Associate
Visiting Researcher
Research Assistant

Visiting Researcher
Visiting Researcher
Visiting Researcher
Visiting Researcher
Visiting Researcher
Research Assistant

Research Associate
Research Associate
Research Assistant
Research Assistant
Research Assistant

Information Services

Director of

B. Barbiero
J. Voorhees

Research Assistant

C. McVicker

P. Klosky

35 REPORT 1976-1978

Financial Statements


(301) 654-4900

February 3, 1978

Officers and Trustees
International Food Policy Research Institute
1776 Massachusetts Avenue, N. W.
Washington, D. C. 20036

We have examined the accompanying statement of assets, liabili-
as at December 31, 1977 and the comparative statement of revenue and
expenses for the years ended December 31, 1977 and 1976 arising from
cash transactions (as adjusted for depreciation).

Our examination was made in accordance with generally accepted
auditing standards and accordingly included such tests of the account-
ing records and such other auditing procedures as we considered neces-
sary in the circumstances.

In our opinion, the statements mentioned above present fairly
the assets, liabilities and fund balance of INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY
RESEARCH INSTITUTE as at December 31, 1977 and the revenue and ex-
penses arising from cash transactions (as adjusted for depreciation)
for the years ended December 31, 1977 and 1976.


37 REPORT 1976-1978

as at December 31, 1977
(arising from cash transactions adjusted for depreciation)


Current Assets:
American Security & Trust:
Checking account $380,340
Savings account 36,525
Petty cash 134
Fixed Assets:
Furniture and equipment $111,081
Leasehold improvements 6,359
Library 2,080
Less- accumulated depreciation 44,149
Other Assets:
Miscellaneous advances 5,343


Employees' tax withholding $ 1,222
Fund Balance:
Balance January 1, 1977 $604,273
Less-excess of expenses over revenue
for the year ended December 31, 1977 (107,782)


For the Years ended December 31, 1977 and 1976
(arising from cash transactions as adjusted for depreciation)

1977 1976
Grants $ 950,929 $1,155,246
Reimbursement of expenses 99,978 4,980
Investment income 23,390 30,019
Contributions 1,350 3,523
$1,075,647 $1,193,768
Salaries $ 606,412 $ 311,996
Employee Related Costs:
Employee benefits $ 139,576 $ 70,182
Staff travel 34,626 21,534
Recruitment and relocation 18,071 76,947
$ 192,273 $ 168,663
Consulting Services and Contracts:
Outside consultants $ 97,116 $ 59,183
Contract research and individual awards 34,203 22,399
Trustee meetings 32,096 38,088
$ 163,415 $ 119,670
Office Operation:
Rent $ 71,308 $ 58,095
Equipment rental 45,285 19,712
Office supplies and expenses 25,542 15,811
Telephone and telegraph 16,233 10,425
Professional fees 12,228 13,842
Printing 9,580 2,446
Dues and publications 9,341 6,643
Outside services 5,370 638
Business meals and conferences 3,421 2,031
Insurance 2,008 1,455
$ 200,316 $ 131,098
Total Cash Expenses $1,162,416 $ 731,427
Depreciation 21,013 18,068
$1,183,429 $ 749,495
EXPENSES $( 107,782) $ 444,273

39 REPORT 1976-1978

December 31, 1977

NOTE A. Organization and Summary of Significant Accounting Policies:
The International Food Policy Research Institute was organized as a Dis-
trict of Columbia non-profit, non-stock corporation on March 5, 1975.
As of May 27, 1977, it received a ruling from the Federal Internal Revenue
Service that it is an organization exempt from Federal Income Tax under
Sec. 501(c) (3) of the Internal Revenue Code and that it is a publicly sup-
ported organization to which contributions are deductible by other indi-
viduals and organizations.
During 1977, the Institute received from International Development Re-
search Centre, Ottawa, Canada, the amount of Can. $525,000-U.S.
$484,315, bringing the total received to date of Can. $1,650,000 of Can.
$2,250,000. A grant of $230,000 was received from the Rockefeller
Foundation, New York City for general support in 1977 and a grant of
$300,000 for support in 1978 is forthcoming. A Ford Foundation grant of
$230,000 for core budget support was made during the year.
NOTE B. The Institute occupies office space under a lease expiring August 31, 1982
at an annual rental of $67,230 plus pro-rata share of increases in building
operating costs. Additional space was acquired under a sublease for
$21,438 annually which expires September 30, 1980.
NOTE C. Depreciation is provided at the rate of 20% per annum on the furniture
and equipment and over the life of the lease for the leasehold improve-
NOTE D. The Institute is purchasing retirement annuity contracts for employees
under agreement with the Teachers Insurance and Annuity Association
and the College Retirement Equities Fund. The cost was $72,283 for 1977.


IFPRI Financial Summary- 1978

Revenue 1978
IDRC $ 854,204
Rockefeller Found. 307,084
Ford Foundation 307,084
Contracts, Investment Income, etc. 117,882
Total $1,586,254
Personnel Costs $1,178,490
Staff Travel 38,550
Publications, Conferences, Library 63,578
Statistical Serv. 69,681
Capital Expenditures 29,046
Space Rental 89,385
Administrative Costs 133,550
Payment to Working Capital Funds
Total $1,602,280
Surplus (deficit) ($ 16,026)
Working Capital
Fund Balance $ 160,252"

*Balance in working capital fund as of December 31, 1977 was $176,278.


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