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 Front Cover
 Title Page
 Table of Contents
 Current research issues
 Multicountry thematic research
 Country-level research
 2020 vision: An IFPRI-wide...
 Outreach
 The future: FCND in 1995 and...
 Annex A: Divisional publications...
 Annex B: Staff of the food consumption...






Group Title: Internal program review, Food Consumption and Nutrition Division, IFPRI
Title: Internal program review
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Title: Internal program review
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Language: English
Creator: International Food Policy Research Institute. Food Consumption and Nutrition Division
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International Food Policy Research Institute, Food Consumption and Nutrition Division
Publication Date: 1994
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Subject: Africa   ( lcsh )
Farming   ( lcsh )
Spatial Coverage: Africa
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Table of Contents
    Front Cover
        Front Cover 1
        Front Cover 2
    Title Page
        Page i
        Page ii
    Table of Contents
        Page iii
        Page iv
    Current research issues
        Page 1
        Page 2
        Page 3
    Multicountry thematic research
        Page 4
        Page 5
        Page 6
        Page 7
        Page 8
        Page 9
        Page 10
        Page 11
        Page 12
        Page 13
        Page 14
        Page 15
        Page 16
        Page 17
    Country-level research
        Page 18
        Page 19
        Page 20
        Page 21
        Page 22
        Page 23
    2020 vision: An IFPRI-wide initiative
        Page 24
        Page 25
    Outreach
        Page 26
        Page 27
        Page 28
        Page 29
        Page 30
    The future: FCND in 1995 and beyond
        Page 31
        Page 32
        Page 33
        Page 34
    Annex A: Divisional publications during 1994
        Page 35
        Page 36
        Page 37
        Page 38
        Page 39
        Page 40
        Page 41
        Page 42
        Page 43
        Page 44
        Page 45
        Page 46
        Page 47
    Annex B: Staff of the food consumption and nutrition division
        Page 48
        Page 49
        Page 50
Full Text
aO /Y7


November 28-December 2, 1994


International Food Policy Research Institute
1200 Seventeenth Street, N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20036-3006

















































November 28-December 2, 1994


International Food Policy Research Institute
1200 Seventeenth Street, N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20036-3006














TABLE OF CONTENTS


CURRENT RESEARCH ISSUES ................................. 1

MULTICOUNTRY THEMATIC RESEARCH ........................ 4

Famine Prevention in Africa (MP15) ........................... 4
Credit Policies for Food Security of the Poor (MP5) .................. 6
Labor Market Interventions for Food Security (MP6) ................ 9
Food Security and Nutrition Monitoring (MP16) .................. 10
Gender and Intrahousehold Aspects of Food Policy (MP17) ............ 14
Food and Nutrition Implications of Urbanization (MP14) .............. 16
Agricultural Strategies to Overcome Micronutrient Malnutrition .......... 16

COUNTRY-LEVEL RESEARCH ................................ 18

Bangladesh: Targeted Interventions for Food Security ............... 18
Egypt: Food Security and Economic Reform ..................... 20
Pakistan: Food Policies and Food Security ..................... 22

2020 VISION: AN IFPRI-WIDE INITIATIVE ...................... 24

OUTREACH ............................................. 26

Institution Building .................................... 26
Advisory Services ..................................... 26
Outreach Publications .................................... 27
Brainstorming Seminars ................................. 29
W workshop Calendar 1994 .................................. 30

THE FUTURE: FCND IN 1995 AND BEYOND ...................... 31

ANNEX A: DIVISIONAL PUBLICATIONS DURING 1994 .............. 35

ANNEX B: STAFF OF THE FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION
D IV ISION ..................................... 48














THE FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION DIVISION


This document provides information on research and outreach activities pursued during
1994 by IFPRI's Food Consumption and Nutrition Division (FCND), as well as planned
activities for 1995.

IFPRI's research and outreach seeks to contribute to the reduction of food insecurity
at the global, regional, national, community, household, and individual levels. This research
and outreach seeks to contribute to improvements in (1) sustainable food production, (2)
economic access to food, and (3) the ability to use food effectively for growth and nutrition.

The Food Consumption and Nutrition Division (FCND) at IFPRI takes the lead on
research relating to improved economic access to food and improved ability to harness food
for growth and nutrition. The division's rerarcm asks: How do policies an programs affect
community, household, and individualfod-seeity? This eir n ndrtanng of-the
constraints and mnceniUe structures influencing hol and intrah ir often
in.relatfio=n o .n.entions What do poor households do
themselves to generate income, secure food, and ensure good nutrition and health? Answers
to these two sets of questions suggest alternative policy and program designs for overcoming
hunger and malnutrition.


CURRENT RESEARCH ISSUES

The research issues addressed by FCND are in direct support of priority research goals
set by the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR). For the past
two years, this policy research has been predominantly organized within six multicountry
research programs (MPs) that represent a major share of IFPRI's medium-term plan. The
six MPs are:

1. Credit Policies for Food Security of the Poor (MP5);
2. Labor Market Policies and Employment Programs for Food Security (MP6);
3. Agriculture, Food, and Nutrition Implications of Urbanization (MP14);
4. Famine Prevention in Africa (MP15);
5. Food Security and Nutrition Monitoring for Policy Formulation (MP16); and
6. Strengthening Food Policy Through Intrahousehold Analysis (MP17).

The policy questions addressed by FCND research and outreach are summarized in
Table 1. The theme-based approach represented by the MPs does not preclude a
concentration of research in specific countries. In fact, the gains from convergence of






Table 1-Food and nutrition policy research issues addressed by the Food Consumption and Nutrition Division at IFPRI


Problem Causes Policy Issues Potential Policy Impact Research Hypotheses Country Studies


* Famine
* Vulnerability to
famine
(MP15, MP14)


* Seasonal
fluctuations in
income, food
consumption,
and nutrition
status (MP5,
MP6)




* Micronutrient
deficiency or
"hidden hunger'


* Underperform-
ance of food
policies and
projects (MP17)


* Lack of
information on
nutrition
outcomes and
trends (MP16)


Drought, civil unrest,
poor market
integration, or policy
failure overlaid on
chronic poverty

Restricted access of
the poor to credit for
consumption

Limited range and
supply of
employment
opportunities



Low incomes

Large seasonal
price variation in
micronutrient-rich
foods

Lack of information



Policymakers and
project designers
treat households
and communities as
undifferentiated
units


Information collec-
tion not shaped by
end users; informa-
tion is overcompli-
cated and not timely


How can scarce relief resources
be used to prevent famine or
avoid its worst consequences?
What are the best early warning
indicators?

Can credit schemes be
designed that reach the poor,
and yet are financially viable?
Should labor-intensive public
works be encouraged? What
projects/tasks are they most
suitable for?




What are the most cost-effective
methods for raising
micronutrient
consumption?-Fortification,
supplementation, nutrition
education, new crop varieties?

Can profitable crops be bred for
high mineral consumption?


When should development
projects be targeted to women?
How important a brake on
development are asymmetries
in rights to resources between
men and women?


How can food aid be targeted to
more effectively alleviate
poverty and malnutrition?


* Overcome hunger,
save resources for
more developmental
interventions


* Income sources are
more easily
diversified

* The poor can cope
better with
exogenous shocks to
their livelihood



* Eradicate diseases of
micronutrient
deficiency

* Switch from
expensive curative
public health care
expenditure to
preventative
expenditure

* Actual policy impact
is closer to intent
* Faster and more
equitable economic
growth
* Enhanced child
survival


* Improved early
warning
* Improved monitoring
of large interventions
* Improved targeting


* Targeting is feasible and
desirable
* Food aid is insufficient to
protect vulnerable groups from
future shocks

* The poor are credit constrained
* The poor can be integrated into
rural financial systems
* Public works can reach the poor
and stabilize the income and
nutrition status of the poor





* Sometimes, low micronutrient
consumption is a bigger
constraint to morbidity and
productivity than low calorie and
protein intake
* Micronutrient-rich cereals can
be developed and they will be
adopted by farmers and
consumers


* In certain instances, the
benefits of looking inside the
household far exceed the costs
* Traditional economic models of
the household fail to capture
important policy impacts


* Simple, easy to use indicators
can be collected and acted
upon


Botswana
Ethiopia
Sudan



Bangladesh
Botswana
China
Ethiopia
Ghana
Madagascar
Mali
Niger
Pakistan
Sudan

Bangladesh
Egypt
Ethiopia
Philippines


Burkina Faso
C6te d'lvoire
Ethiopia
India
Indonesia
Niger
Philippines

Ethiopia
Ghana
Guatemala
India
Mali





-3-


research from multiple MPs in a small number of countries are potentially large. This
potential is well-demonstrated by the Pakistan and Bangladesh country projects that were
successfully completed in 1994, and by the Egypt country project that was initiated in 1994.
The country project summaries are presented after the MP reports.

The issues chosen for research in a multicountry context were the culmination of
extensive and long-standing interactions with IFPRI's clients, and divisional assessments of
how alternative research agendas meet the relative needs of the world's poor. The current
priorities reflect a belief that coordinated research (leading to policy action) needs to focus
on the worst symptoms of food insecurity, but in the context of a long-term strategy geared
towards policies designed to remove the root causes of hunger and malnutrition. This
translates into a focus on the acute problems of hunger, manifest at the extreme in famine,
together with issues of income security, secured through labor and credit markets, which
prevent adverse shocks of economic, climatic, or political, resulting in famine. Crucially,
this focus is coupled with research on the much larger problem of chronic and transitory
dietary deficiencies of both macro- and micronutrients, and of constraints among certain
target populations in access to nonfood inputs, such as access to health facilities, for good
nutrition. Assessment of the prevalence, incidence, causes, and potential solutions of such
problems (in both rural and urban areas) is an important part of the division's activities, as
is the search for improved methodologies for monitoring and evaluating the impact of policy
and project interventions.









MULTICOUNTRY THEMATIC RESEARCH

I. Famine Prevention in Africa (MP15)

Initiated in 1987, this research seeks to facilitate the development of effective policies
and projects for famine mitigation and prevention. Key research questions include: What
role do production fluctuations, policy failures, and market failures play in the development
and evolution of famines? Who are those most affected during such crises? In what ways are
they affected and what do they do themselves to try and ward off the worst effects of famine?
How can famine victims be more rapidly reintegrated into a productive development process,
thereby reducing their potential vulnerability to future crises? How should food and
agricultural policies, programs, and projects be designed in order to avoid the worst
consequences of potential future famines, particularly in drought-prone regions?

Research during 1994 focused on two major tasks: (1) a synthesis of the findings of
country-specific analyses to draw lessons more widely applicable to Africa; and
(2) development of new techniques for the geographic targeting of food security
interventions.


Famines in Africa: Lessons Learned

The syntheses have culminated in book manuscripts on the famine experience of
Ethiopia (published by John Wiley in 1994), and on famine in Africa in general (submitted
to IFPRI's Publications Review Committee in 1994).

The syntheses conclude that:

1. Even in areas of desperate poverty, some households are much better able to cope with
food crises than others. Conventional relief interventions make little attempt to
identify those least able to cope, thereby spreading scarce resources too thinly and
sometimes missing the most vulnerable.

2. Analysis of the costs and benefits of targeting suggests that geographical targeting can
be much improved given a clearer statistical methodology for criteria selection, but
that, within regions, self-targeting through "inferior" goods or "low" wage rates in
public works employment programs can be effective and desirable.

3. Where the most vulnerable have been identified, food aid alone is insufficient to
protect households from subsequent crises. Complementary packages of food and
nonfood resources are required over more than a few months to address the short- and
longer-term dimensions of acute hunger.

These findings have been accepted by a wide range of Ethiopian policymakers and
incorporated into the design of recent strategies and policies. For example, the argument that










nonfood incomes should be targeted to the poor for more effective relief assistance where
possible, via self-targeted employment programs, became a central theme of both Ethiopia's
recently enacted Famine Code legislation and the country's new social safety net supported
by the World Bank and International Monetary Fund. Similarly, World Food Programme
has accepted FCND's recommendation that its Food-for-Work program (the largest in Africa)
should be redesigned in the next expansion phase to focus on demand-side indicators of
success (income and consumption stabilization leading to enhanced food security) rather than
on project output indicators, such as tree survival rate and length of roads constructed.

FCND staff have continued to work with donors (such as the World Bank and
UNICEF), private voluntary organizations (PVOs) (such as CARE and Bread for the World),
and the United States government (the Congressional Subcommittee on Foreign Agriculture
and Hunger) in attempting to improve their operational impact by narrowing the focus of
development initiatives on underlying causes and symptoms of acute food insecurity and
famine. CARE and the World Bank have adopted FCND output as the starting point for
extensive internal debate on these crucial issues.


Targeting Food Aid: How to Assess Effectiveness?

We now live in a world where a dollar spent on emergency food relief is a dollar less
to spend on longer-term development. Under these circumstances, food aid must be
preventative in nature and it must be targeted. For example, the U.S. Government spent an
estimated $730 million, successfully preventing the recent drought in southern Africa from
developing into a catastrophic famine. But this sum almost matched the USAID
Development Fund for Africa budget of 1992, intended for the continent as a whole.

But how are public sector agencies supposed to target relief-to whom and in what
form? FCND research has addressed this question with its Ethiopia work. Close
collaboration with USAID's operational Famine Early Warning System, as well as with other
United Nations (FAO, WFP) and national early warning agencies, has suggested a need for
closer scrutiny of conventional supply-side analyses of vulnerability, and hence of approaches
to the targeting of public assistance. FCND explored the use of nonparametric analysis for
improved choice of warning indicators, and for targeting of employment-based assistance
programs to the most needy. During 1994, the project produced written reports on the
Classification and Regression Tree (CART)-based models and a series of hard copy and
computer-based maps that identify likely household vulnerability to income and food
consumption collapse at third-level administrative disaggregation.

Specifically, the research (1) maps vulnerability in a GIS (geographic information
systems) format, (2) identifies indicators associated with that vulnerability, and (3) assesses
whether actual interventions take place in the most vulnerable areas. District (awraja)-level
indicators of people in need include sharp declines in satellite vegetation indexes (NDVI),
low terms of trade between maize and sheep (high relative price of maize), high road density
per kilometer, and small average household size. Does need correspond to action? In terms





-6-


of employment programs in Ethiopia, the answer is: not always. This work shows how
IFPRI research uses information for better action to reduce hunger and malnutrition.

Field surveys were implemented during 1994 (in localities determined as having a high
vulnerability), both to validate the methodology-are conditions on the ground really as bad
as we predict?-and to assess the use of this approach to vulnerability mapping for the
geographical targeting of future labor-intensive works programs.

Collaborating institutions include USAID; Oxford University; Ethiopian Relief and
Rehabilitation Services; the Ministry of Agriculture; the Ministry of Natural Resources and
Development and Environmental Protection; the Central Statistics Office; the Institute of
Agricultural Research; Addis Ababa University; Reddbarna; ILCA; and the United States
Geographical Survey.


II. Credit Policies for Food Security of the Poor (MP5)

The ability of households to raise income is critically dependent on their ability to bear
risk. Households must be able to seize income-generating opportunities as they arise.
Similarly, households need to preserve their asset base during times of hardship caused by
temporary shocks. This often entails foregoing consumption today to ensure production for
income generation tomorrow. Access to financial services and well-functioning labor markets
allows households to bear risk when opportunities arise and to smooth consumption during
lean periods.

FCND research in this area explores how to identify ways to effectively integrate the
rural poor into financial systems in order to facilitate consumption stabilization in the short-
term and to enhance credit for investment in the longer-term. Learning from, and building
on, household behavior may provide a key to designing sustainable rural financial systems
that better serve the poor.

Key research and policy questions are: What is the nature and scale of participation
by the poor in formal and informal credit and savings systems? Is credit used differently by
different socioeconomic groups (according to gender, land-ownership, income structure)?
What are the direct and indirect effects of access to credit and savings schemes on household
income, consumption, and nutrition? How do existing formal and informal credit and savings
options help to alleviate food security problems? What complementary programs enhance the
nutritional benefits of credit for the poor? What sustainable institutional arrangements can
deliver financial services to the poor at low transactions costs?

In 1994, IFPRI and collaborating institutions continued research in Cameroon, Mali,
Ghana, Nepal, Pakistan, and Madagascar. New studies were also begun in Bangladesh and
China. In addition, a short-term study on the structure and performance of the rural financial
sector in Egypt was completed in 1994, which assessed the future role of the Principal Bank





-7-


for Development and Agricultural Credit (PBDAC) in a liberalized financial sector. 1994
research highlights include:


Does Formal Credit Rationing Matter for the Poor?

MP5 research shows that poorer households receive a high share of their total credit
from informal sources. This phenomenon has been explained in the past by an excessive
rationing of formal credit. MP5 research indicates, however, that informal credit is crucial
for consumption smoothing and that the observed demand for specific types of informal credit
would occur even if formal credit services were not rationed. An increased participation of
the poor in formal financial markets necessitates the diversification of credit and savings
services into services demanded by the poor. For example, in addition to seasonal
agricultural credit, formal credit services could include short-term loans of less than four
months duration that are offered for consumption smoothing and for on- and off-farm
enterprises with a high rate of capital turnover, such as vegetable and poultry production,
food processing, and petty trade.


Substitutes for Land Collateral

Informal lenders do not use the possession of land as a prime indicator for judging the
creditworthiness of the loan applicant. Previous repayment record and reputation; the
possession of livestock, poultry, jewelry, and other liquid assets; and the degree of
indebtedness, especially to informal lenders, are major factors in determining the loan size.
Although land is frequently found as collateral for large loans in land-constrained rural
economies such as Nepal, Pakistan, and Madagascar, the majority of informal loans are
secured by social and economic sanctions, not by physical collateral. The use of collateral
substitutes allows poorer households to participate in the informal market and to borrow from
friends and relatives, shopkeepers, traders and moneylenders. For poor rural households,
where labor is the most important productive factor, the use of land as collateral is not only
regressive, but it is inefficient, since it underestimates the repayment capacity of the large
share of rural households who derive most of their income from crop production under
sharecropping and lease arrangements, from off-farm income sources, and from animal
production.


Group-Based Approaches for High Repayment Rates

Members of formal credit groups obtain information about wealth, indebtedness, and
income potential of the loan applicant when assessing his or her creditworthiness. This
information is too costly for distant bank agents to obtain. Because of this information
advantage, formal group-based savings and credit systems can substantially increase access
to credit for the poor. From the Pakistan case study, lending to individuals is accompanied
by lengthy paperwork and land is the dominant form of collateral. Thus, the poorest quintile










of households derives only 1 percent of its credit from formal lenders, whereas the highest
quintile obtains 58 percent. In the household sample for Madagascar-a country which
employs mostly group-based formal credit systems, the poorest quintile obtains 40 percent
of its credit from formal sources. The substantially higher repayment rates of the group-
based approach in Madagascar also indicate that locally based screening of loan applicants
and the enforcement of loan repayment is more effective than the traditional collateral
approach found in Pakistan.


The Linking of Member-based Financial Institutions with Liberalized Banking Sector: Is
it Feasible?

Member-based financial institutions, such as group-based programs, savings and credit
cooperatives, or member-managed village banks, have the potential of integrating the poor
in the formal savings and credit market. The most promising of recent strategies for
financial market development appear to be the linkage of member-controlled financial
institutions with a liberalized banking and cooperative sector. A review of innovative
financial institutions in Latin America, Africa, and Asia identified various factors of success.
These include: (1) provision of financial products effectively responding to the diverse
demand for savings, credit, and insurance services, while stressing the need for savings
mobilization; (2) employment of locally adapted collateral substitutes such as peer pressure,
obligatory savings, or character references, which reduce transaction costs for screening, loan
disbursement, and repayment, including the risk of loan default; and (3) market-based interest
rates in order to attract savings deposits, to cover administrative and capital costs, and to
avoid rent-seeking of better-off groups.


Improved Access to Credit: Does it Raise Income and Improve Food Security?

Access to credit can augment household income: borrowing from either informal or
formal sources significantly increases household income when controlling for other factors
influencing resource allocation, such as existing physical and human capital. Despite almost
two-thirds of informal credit reported as being used for consumption (mainly food), it is
noteworthy that borrowing from informal sources shows a significant positive effect on
income generation. This result appears to reflect the return to adequate energy intake in
terms of improved labor supply response. Informal and formal loans that had been primarily
used for consumption also achieved repayment rates similar to "production loans." The
results therefore lead to the policy conclusion that the current widespread practice of targeting
short-term loans to narrowly defined productive uses in order to secure the loan repayment
is actually counterproductive, since it neglects the benefits of higher labor productivity
through better nutrition.


Further country studies, such as Malawi, are planned for 1995.





-9-


Collaborating institutions include the University of Hohenheim; Freedom from Hunger;
the Pakistan Institute for Development Studies; the University of Kiel; Bunda College
(Malawi); and the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.


III. Labor Market Interventions for Food Security (MP6)

Poor economic performance by many Sub Saharan African economies over the last 10
to 15 years has resulted in a slowdown in employment and wage growth. Additionally, there
has been casualization of employment and increasing variability in wage and employment
levels. These adverse labor market outcomes are particularly significant for the poor, given
that labor is often their only productive resource and, consequently, means of generating an
income. The dependence of the poor on a casual labor market with highly variable labor
demand and wage rates leads to increasing poverty. Paradoxically, while labor market
outcomes may contribute to increasing poverty, it is the labor market that is also a key to
overcoming poverty. The ability of the poor to cope with poverty-and to ultimately
overcome it-depends critically on their labor supply characteristics and their access to
functioning labor markets.

The labor market has a three-pronged allocative function: determination of the
aggregate level of employment and wages; allocation of workers between sectors by
matching worker skills with job requirements; and provision of incentives for the
intertemporal allocation of resources such as human capital accumulation. Labor markets in
developing countries also perform a secondary role as substitutes for other missing or thin
markets, notably insurance and credit markets. For example, individuals in risky
environments without access to insurance markets diversify their labor into a range of
activities so as to generate a lower covariate risk for income generation. For example,
agricultural households by allocating some labor to off-farm activities lower their income risk
should their own agricultural crops fail.

Public policies can strengthen these private coping efforts by lowering the cost of
access to labor markets. Success, however, is dependent on the correct choice of policy
instruments from the wide range available. Selection of the appropriate policy instruments
relies on an understanding of the principal factors that determine labor-linked poverty
outcomes, the identification of the correct policy entry points through the labor market, and
an assessment of the relative effectiveness of alternative policy interventions in reducing
poverty. The principal policy question is: How to improve the choice and design of policies
in order to promote secure and productive employment for the poor?


Research on labor-intensive public works continued in 1994:





- 10-


Designing Labor-Intensive Public Works: The Need for Market Linkage

A case study of a minor roads program in Kenya-based on a rapid survey of randomly
selected workers in three districts, interviews with village key informants, and the 1990
national household poverty survey concluded that the program, as designed, was an effective
instrument for targeting the poor. In addition, a comparison with similar programs in
Tanzania and Botswana highlighted the need to give high priority to more strategic design
objectives, such as (1) a clarification of program concept and goals; (2) the need to relate key
design and operational parameters to market conditions; (3) the need to develop a financing
scheme that is compatible with overall macroeconomic policy and public expenditure
priorities; and (4) an improvement of program-related monitoring and evaluation systems to
promote a more structured stream of high quality information for local-level policymakers
to act upon.


Labor Supply in Africa: How Elastic?

A review of employment and labor diversification practices in rural Africa also yields
a number of lessons for the design of labor-based safety nets. The review set out to test a
key assumption implicit in design of many safety net programs: that employment in rural
areas is strictly demand driven. That is, labor is readily available in rural areas as long as
there are additional employment opportunities. The review concludes that a wide range of
labor supply responses have been observed. Labor supply cannot be characterized by very
high or very low supply elasticities. The prevailing assumption of demand constrained labor
supply should not be assumed when designing labor-based interventions: the labor market
will likely be affected by the intervention.

Collaborating institutions include the World Bank.


IV. Food Security and Nutrition Monitoring (MP16)

Research to improve the availability, relevance, and quality of food and nutrition
information is critical to effective decisionmaking in developing countries. Policymakers
require information on the food security and nutritional status of the population, as well as
on the underlying trends and causes for that situation. In addition, governments are seeking
ways to use monitoring systems to analyze the effects of a range of policies and programs
in a timely manner.

Research goals include: to identify ways that information generated from food security
and nutrition monitoring systems can be used more effectively to answer (1) who are the
food-insecure and malnourished people, (2) how are they distributed among the various agro-
ecological zones or socioeconomic groups, and (3) how can information systems be designed
to address these information needs as an input into policy assessments?; to develop and test
food security and nutrition monitoring and evaluation systems that include the integration of





- 11 -


nutrition concerns in diverse-sector activities; and to analyze global trends of nutrition.
Numerous country-specific studies are conducted as part of this research. A number of
individual examples are presented below. Much of 1995 will be spent synthesizing the
results of the diverse case studies already completed.


Global Nutrition Monitoring: 1994 Update

This collaborative research between IFPRI and the UN Administrative Committee on
Coordination/Subcommittee on Nutrition (ACC/SCN) analyzes global trends in nutrition.
Recent regional and country trends in nutrition are analyzed alongside trends in other
development indicators at the country level. The latter include measures of national income
and distribution, wages, prices, indicators of access to food, government expenditures in
health, nutrition, and social services.

Work during 1994 will contribute to the next Global Update of the Nutrition Situation.
Trends analysis will be conducted using the approach of the previous World Reports, where
nutrition trends were analyzed along with trends in the national economy, national food
supply and household food security, health and control of infectious disease, and fiscal
expenditures for health, education, and social security.

The current global nutrition situation assessment is based on comparable data points
from the 1980s and 1990s for 45 developing countries. The trends indicate that:

Child nutrition has deteriorated in six of the eight countries in Sub-Saharan
Africa for which data are available: Ethiopia, Kenya, Madagascar, Malawi,
Rwanda, and Senegal. The exceptions are Zambia (static), and Tanzania
(improving).

Recent data from South Asia, where prevalence rates of underweight children
are approximately 60 percent, show that child nutrition has improved in
Bangladesh, but deteriorated in India.

Child nutrition continues to improve in China and the South East Asian
countries (with the exception of the Philippines, which continues to have
underweight prevalence rates of 33 percent).

Results of this research have been used in the monitoring of program success in
countries and also in the allocation of resources, especially in United Nations Children's
Emergency Fund (UNICEF), in the World Bank, and the World Food Programme. At
UNICEF, trends indicators generated by the research have been used in their assessment of
the progress of countries in achieving the goals of the World Summit for Children. We plan
to continue to undertake this work in 1995.





- 12-


Local-Level Monitoring in Ghana

The main objective of this research was to evaluate the impact of credit schemes
targeted to women on household income, household food security, and the nutrition status
of women and preschoolers. Supporting objectives included identification of the constraints
to participation in the credit schemes, an assessment of the credit scheme implementation
process in achieving food security and nutrition, and an evaluation of the implementation and
impact of growth monitoring on preschooler nutritional status.

It was found that, in general, community characteristics had a greater impact on credit
program impact than either household- or individual-level characteristics. Participation by
women involved in food processing in credit programs had positive effects on their own body
weight and minor positive impacts on household income. Credit for food processors was
well targeted on poorer and female-headed households. One of the key findings, however,
was the importance of credit program design, implementation, and monitoring for project
success. Programs where staff visited women's homes had both higher loan repayment rates
and a greater positive impact on food security and nutrition.


Monitoring Using Participatory Methods in India

The overall objective of this study was to field test and document the validity and
reliability of alternative indicators of food and nutrition security in the Indian Semi-Arid
Tropics (ISAT). Our work with ICRISAT, the National Institute of Nutrition, Andhra
Pradesh Agricultural University, and Myrada, a local NGO, compared indicators from
conventional surveys, pared-down rapid surveys, and participatory appraisal methods for the
purposes of identifying low-cost indicators of food insecurity in four villages.

We found that the rapid survey and participatory indicators performed just as well as
the more conventional survey indicators and were much easier to collect. In addition, the
participatory methods that infused our rapid survey methods proved more flexible than
conventional survey methods, more respectful to local knowledge, quicker for establishing
rapport between investigators and villagers, and more promising for the nutrition education
purposes. We are working with the USAID Mission, CARE, and the National Nutrition
Monitoring Board to incorporate the lessons learned from this research into the Andhra
Pradesh monitoring effort for 1995.


Vitamin A Deficiency: Do Simple Indicators Exist?

Follow-up work to the monitoring work in India is planned with the National Institute
of Nutrition on the development and validation of simple-to-collect methods of identifying
vitamin A deficient individuals. The work will center around the validation of the semi-
quantitative food frequency method, but will, in addition, identify other simple indicators of
vitamin A deficiency. Specific objectives include





- 13 -


the use of existing blood serum, dietary recall, and food frequency data to
determine whether the semi-quantitative food frequency method is an accurate
and reliable method for determining individual- and household-level vitamin A
intake;

the development of alternative, socioeconomic-based indicators that may be used
to identify vitamin A deficient preschoolers and women;

an analysis as to whether household-level data are sufficient for identifying
vitamin A deficient preschoolers-do individual-level data need to be collected?

the use of local knowledge, gained through unstructured interviews and focus
groups, to understand why certain indicators outperform others;

a report-back on the feasibility of local personnel or community groups using
these data collection and data analysis methods in a sustainable manner.


The Need to Monitor Nonfoods Inputs into Good Nutrition

Too often we forget that good nutrition requires more than access to macro- and
micronutrients, hence we often fail to monitor access to nonfood inputs into nutrition. If
access to clean water, good sanitation, nutrition education, quality health infrastructure, and
other nonfood inputs into nutrition is impaired, food cannot be utilized properly by the body.
We are reminded of this by IFPRI's research in Pakistan. The nutrition and health picture
in Pakistan contains a major puzzle: substantial economic and agricultural growth in the past
decade has led to declines in rural and urban poverty, but the rate of malnutrition has
increased by 15 percent over that period.

IFPRI research from the Pakistan Project shows that for malnutrition to be reduced,
increases in per capital food supply need to be matched by public investments in health
infrastructure-both in terms of quality and quantity. For example, the research shows that
a per capital income increase of 40 percent led to a 31 percent decrease in the number of
underweight children-about the same effect as a one-day reduction in the number of days
that the child was ill in the past 14 days. Which is the more realistic goal in the short run?
We believe that for gains in private income to be translated into an increased ability to obtain
health inputs, investment in the quasi-public good that is health infrastructure must be
forthcoming. This case study may be relevant for a number of low-to-middle income
countries, but also for a number of Sub-Saharan African countries (it is a high priority for
the African Development Bank, for example). We need to turn food security into nutrition
security.

Collaborating institutions include the International Science and Technology Institute;
the Ministries of Health and Agriculture, Government of Ghana; USAID Missions in Mali,
India, Ghana, and Kenya; the National Institute of Nutrition, the Andhra Pradesh Agricultural





- 14-


University, MYRADA, India; Johns Hopkins University; the ACC/SCN of the UN;.UNICEF
Ghana, Kenya; Freedom from Hunger Foundation; Jomo Kenyatta University, the Central
Bureau of Statistics, Kenya; and INCAP.


V. Gender and Intrahousehold Aspects of Food Policy (MP17)

More and more we see reports titled "gender and poverty," "gender and agriculture,"
"gender and environment," and "gender and food security." The thinking behind the
majority of these reports takes it as a given that gender analysis is critical to an understanding
of the issues at hand. Equally numerous are research projects that take it as given that
gender is not important. In short, the first group has been gender blinded, and the second
group is gender-blind. IFPRI/FCND is the lead CG center in trying to improve the
perspective of policymakers, researchers and donors with respect to the relevance of gender.
FCND's work in this area is an effort to find the middle ground. The central question we
pose is, "When and how can food and agiculture pli ctter
udstanding of gender and intrahousehold rceses?" Or, put another way, "When.and
why might_ gd&-e4himpnrtant--for rmmn'g peYternalities, unlacking-inafficg4enant-r
promoting-equity?"

Research from 1994 concludes:

1. Household decisionmaking does not always reflect common preferences and the
pooling of resources. Policymakers should be aware that, in terms of impact, it
matters to whom within the household initiatives are directed.

2. Women are overrepresented among the rural poor. Using survey data from 10
countries, we find that, on average, women constitute approximately 60 percent of
adults in the poorest decile of households and approximately 40 percent in the upper
decile. This pattern holds in 8 out of the 10 countries studied.

3. Girls in South Asia are discriminated against in terms of food and health inputs
relative to requirements. The evidence from South Asia, and to a lesser extent,
South East Asia, confirms that boys are favored in terms of inputs into nutrition, both
foods and nonfoods. For the first time, we break the results out by region, and note
the dearth of data from Sub-Saharan Africa (and more surprisingly, Latin America)
on these issues.

4. The effectiveness of policy and program interventions can be improved by
understanding that different household members have different preferences and
different constraints. A review of donor experience with targeting resources to
women shows that programs and projects that attempt to either by-pass or alter gender-
relations within the household tend to be unsuccessful. The most successful programs
acknowledge gender relations and work within them.





- 15-


5. Household food security and child nutrition can be improved by raising women's
share of income earned in the household. IFPRI research has repeatedly shown that
the impact of female income on household food security is over and above the impact
of male income. Critics of this result have contended that this result simply reflects
women's more regular income flows that are more easily spent on food. New IFPRI
research from Niger shows that even when allowing for seasonality of income flow,
women and men do not pool income.

6. There is little hard evidence to show that economic adjustment has more negative
effects on women than men. What may be of more concern to policymakers is that
adjustment may not be feasible if women face more severe constraints than men in
moving resources from the nontraded into the traded sectors of the economy.

7. The adoption of hybrid maize in Zambia leads to increased household income,
decreased demand for female time, and decreased female control of household
resources. This combination of effects results in a very limited impact on the nutrition
of young children, probably due to the mother's decreased control of resources.

8. Evidence from the Philippines indicates that in terms of growth, young children
from poor families can catch up during adolescence to their better nourished
counterparts. This is an important result to add to a contentious debate. The result
indicates that adolescents should not be written off as a lost generation when it comes
to nutrition interventions. The returns to interventions for adolescent girls, in
particular, could be very large.

The next stage for the MP17 research program is to undertake field research. A wide
range of policy issues will be addressed through field work: for public works schemes, for
example, does a time rate wage, rather than a piece rate wage, make it more likely that
women participate than men, and, if so, is female household time less likely to be
compensated, and, if so, what is the impact on child care and hu.seho..ln tltritini
outcomes? Similarly, when do men and women frpe diffreptial ontrant. to credit, and
wheniL -Mt-matte--in-terms. --f honehold income and jndiidual welfare? For the
Ssustainai f na resources, who arethe primaryuer w reeir.incentive&.for
th ado tion of activities that sIow te of de radation efeakiaoreta .iri
do u aan in t ec seineq4al-
intah hld distribution of iecosts and benefits imposed by theqnc-w-incentives?
ProD sals&ave been submitted reear .n-thes-ar--s-

Collaborating institutions include the World Health Organization; FAO; the UN; the
World Bank; the Population Council; the National Food and Nutrition Commission, Zambia;
the University of the Philippines; the Research Institute for Mindanao Culture, Xavier
University, the Philippines; IFAD; and the International Center for Research on Women.





- 16-


VI. Food and Nutrition Implications of Urbanization (MP14)

Nutrition and food security conditions of the urban poor in developing countries are
of increasing concern as urbanization is occurring at a very rapid rate in developing
countries. And yet, there is a real gap in our knowledge as to the patterns and causes of
urban food insecurity and malnutrition, and the most appropriate strategies for the promotion
of urban food security.

FCND research conducted on urban issues in Sudan in 1994 illustrates the magnitude
and nature of the urban food insecurity problem. The Khartoum study traces the nutritional
status of displaced families after a move from rural to urban areas. The study draws on data
from the 1987 Sudan national nutrition survey, 1990 urban household survey in Khartoum,
and nutrition monitoring reports. The study concludes that although a large proportion of
the poor are concentrated in rural areas, poverty is most intense among recent urban migrants
camped on the outskirts of major towns that are escaping war and drought. Poor living
conditions contribute to a child health and nutritional crisis comparable in magnitude to
periods of famine in drought-prone areas.

FCND plans to formally launch this MP in 1995 with an MP seminar and proposal.
The MP will attempt to identify effective policies and programs to mitigate food security
problems of the poor in cities of developing countries. It will explore the potential for
agricultural policies to prevent further growth of urban food security and nutrition problems
and attempts to improve understanding of interactions between rural and urban poverty and
their impact on food security and nutrition. In addition, the research will identify and
quantify urban survival strategies and household behavior, and study how policies and
programs affect the collective actions and survival strategies of the urban poor. The
development of innovative methodological tools for monitoring and evaluating policies and
programs in urban areas is also a key component of this overall activity.


VII. Agricultural Strategies to Overcome Micronutrient Malnutrition

Micronutrient deficiencies, particularly of Vitamin A, iron, and iodine, affect a far
greater number of people in the world than protein energy malnutrition. Is there a role for
the international agricultural centers in addressing this problem of "hidden hunger"?

This research project has a three-pronged approach: (1) breeding staple crops that are
high in bioavailable minerals, (2) understanding the impact of new agricultural technology
adoption on household food demand, micronutrient consumption, and morbidity levels, and
(3) an analysis of extant data analysis to estimate (i) micronutrient price and income
elasticities, (ii) the allocation of micronutrient-rich foods within the household, and (iii) the
cost-effectiveness of different micronutrient interventions.

Ten years ago, breeding cereals for nutritionally desirable qualities seemed distinctly
unpromising, especially given the high quality protein maize experience of the 1970s. Events





- 17-


of the last 10 years have, however, led to a reassessment of the basis for that pessimism.
Specifically, the last 10 years has seen (1) a recognition of the magnitude of the
micronutrients problem-2 billion people are deficient in one or more micronutrients, (2) a
confirmation of the link between micronutrient deficiency and general reduced resistance to
disease, including HIV/AIDS, and (3) a realization that conventional treatment of
micronutrient deficiency is expensive-for example, a perfectly targeted supplementation to
treat all anemic pregnant women in India would cost $100 million per year, and (4) most
importantly, recent evidence from Australia (Waite Laboratories at the University of
Adelaide) that shows that wheat varieties with efficient Zinc uptake give increased yields and
increased Zinc for dietary intakes. There seems to be few significant impacts on
acceptability, storability, and preparation requirements.

Thus, IFPRI, in collaboration with Waite Laboratories, is coordinating a CIAT-
CIMMYT-IRRI initiative to investigate the possibilities of breeding micronutrient-dense rice,
wheat, maize, beans, and cassava. The year 1994 saw an international conference to launch
the project and a one-day workshop at the World Bank in August to report progress.
Screening for germplasm has already commenced, and plans are underway for a February
roundtable bringing together science experts, social science experts, and journalists to get the
project some exposure. As to potential benefits from this work, a CIMMYT wheat breeder
based in Turkey estimated that if zinc-dense seed varieties were adapted to growing
conditions in Turkey, Turkish wheat farmers would save $100 million per year in reduced
seeding rates per hectare. This figure does not include the benefits to human nutrition.

The second major component of this research program is an assessment of the impact
of new agricultural technology adoption on household and individual micronutrient status.
Potential studies include (1) the adoption of cross-bred cows in Ethiopia (with ILCA), (2) the
farming of small fish in Bangladesh (with ICLARM), (3) slash and burn agriculture in Brazil,
and (4) hybrid maize adoption in the Philippines.

The third component of the study involves analyses of extant data from Bangladesh,
India, and Kenya.

Collaborating institutions include CIAT, CIMMYT, IRRI, ILCA, ICLARM, Waite
Laboratories at the University of Adelaide, the Asian Vegetable Research Development
Center (Taiwan), and Cornell University.





- 18-


COUNTRY-LEVEL RESEARCH

I. BANGLADESH: Targeted Interventions for Food Security

IFPRI's five-year project on food policy in Bangladesh was successfully completed
during 1994. The central goal of the project was to improve the per taka impact of
government resources in the reduction of malnutrition. Bangladesh has achieved impressive
growth in food production in the recent past. Yet, problems of poverty, food insecurity, and
malnutrition remain widespread. About half the country's 116 million people cannot afford
an adequate diet. In the long run, these poor families require increased employment and
income-generating activities to ensure adequate food intake. In the interim, targeted
intervention programs may provide needed income and thereby improve food consumption
and nutritional status of the poor. However, ensuring nutritional adequacy for
undernourished households could cost at least $2.6 billion. This is 10 percent more than all
current government revenues. By contrast, $250 million is annually disbursed through
government and donors in the form of targeted programs. For maximum impact, these
programs need to be transferred to those most in need.

In 1991/92, FCND research in Bangladesh informed the government policymakers that
the performance of the now-defunct Rural Rationing (RR) program-the largest ration
channel in the public food system-was far from satisfactory. The program operated with
enormous system leakage (70 percent). For this negligible impact on the rural poor, the
government paid out subsidies of $60 million per year. The government spent $6.6 to
transfer $1 of income to a target household. These findings contributed to a government
decision to abolish the RR program in May of 1992. Following the abolition of RR, the
Ministry of Food requested IFPRI to suggest options for targeted interventions to improve
food security of the poor. IFPRI assembled a group of professionals from institutions
interested in food policy to undertake the review of existing and potential targeted programs.

Bangladesh has a well-deserved reputation as an innovator in the design of targeted
interventions (witness the Grameen Bank and BRAC) and, in general, the IFPRI-led research
suggests that there is much scope for further innovative income targeting interventions to be
more cost-effective than price subsidies in improving food consumption of the poor. The
research program was based around how to most effectively target that income support. Key
questions included whom to target (children, women), what time of the year, with what
commodities (wheat, rice, cash), and what size of income entitlement. A summary of results
from 1994 is as follows.


Food for Work Versus Cash for Work: Fiscal Costs and Food Security Impacts

Research was conducted to compare the operational performance and food security
effects of cash versus commodity-based public works programs. The study compared the
performance of the two large programs-the cash-based Rural Maintenance Program (RMP)
for the destitute women and the food-for-work (FFW) program. Based on data collected in





- 19-


a household survey during February-March 1994, results show that the RMP transferred $1
of income to a poor household at a cost of $1.3, the lowest cost of all targeted programs in
Bangladesh. RMP lowered costs by operating at zero leakage and by avoiding the cost of
commodity handling. The FFW program was less effective at directing income to vulnerable
households. Due to system leakages of 30-35 percent and the cost of commodity handling,
the FFW transferred $1 to a participating beneficiary household at a cost of $2.1 to $2.8.

Despite costing more to implement, the FFW income transfer had a larger impact on
food consumption compared to the RMP income transfers, although it should be noted that
both the RMP and FFW programs led to a significant improvement in calorie intakes of adult
members of the participating households. However, neither program resulted in improved
food security at the household level being translated into improved child nutritional status-a
result that points to the need to examine nonfood inputs into nutrition status.


The Pilot Food for Education Program: Can Household Food Security and Child
Educational Attainment Be Improved Simultaneously?

One method of disbursing food aid that seems to merit further serious consideration
is the Food for Education (FFE) pilot program. IFPRI helped to conceive the Food for
Education Pilot and was a part of the team that evaluated it in 1994. The Bangladesh
government launched the FFE program in July 1993 on a large-scale pilot basis, covering
about 5,000 primary schools spread all over the country. Most children from the poorest
families in Bangladesh do not attend school because they cannot be spared from contributing
to their family livelihood. The FFE food ration (wheat) becomes the income entitlement that
would enable a poor family to release children from household obligations so they can go to
school.

The assessment of the FFE program was based on a survey of primary schools and
households, conducted in April 1994. Our research indicated the cost of delivering 1 taka
of income to a household through the following schemes: Rural Rationing 6.55, Food For
Work 2.56, and Food For Education 1.59. The Food For Education program did not simply
draw students from neighboring non-FFE schools, but it drew in children from the catchment
area that were not currently in school. The new children were from households that were
slightly poorer than currently enrolled FFE recipients. Children who were not enticed into
school were from families that are 30 percent poorer than the currently enrolled FFE
students. Attendance increased for boys and girls, but increases in attendance were about
10-15 percent higher for girls. The benefits from such a program could be far-reaching in
terms of the status of women and desired family size.

In order to make sure that the work done under the project reaches a broader
community, research in 1995 will be devoted to synthesis of results. FCND plans to produce
a research report on Cost-Effective Targeting of Food and Nutrition Programs in Bangladesh.
In addition, a book manuscript is being prepared on Bangladesh's Food Policy for a Johns
Hopkins publication.





-20-


New work in Bangladesh will be initiated in 1995 to look holistically at the effective
program uses of European food aid.

Collaborating institutions include the Ministry of Food, Primary and Mass Education
Division, the Ministry Of Agriculture, the Bureau of Statistics, Government of Bangladesh;
and the Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies.


II. EGYPT: Food Security and Economic Reform

The system of food subsidies and rationing currently in force in Egypt is both
expensive and wasteful. It is expensive because 10 percent of the government budget goes
to food subsidies (mainly on wheat) and, in addition, scarce foreign exchange is spent on
importing over 4 million tons of wheat a year. It is wasteful because 90 percent of the
Egyptian population has access to the ration system, implying that the system does not target
only those who are genuinely in need. The system has, however, succeeded in raising the
overall food security of the Egyptian population. The availability of cereals is equivalent to
3,700 calories per capital per day, which is among the highest in the world.

This system is due to be abolished over the next two years as part of the economic
reform process underway in Egypt. As a consequence, food prices are likely to rise sharply.
This may be harmful to the food security of the poor since food expenditure makes up well
over 50 percent of total household expenditure for the typical poor household. Clearly,
policies to protect the poorest of the poor have to be put into place. To maximize their
effectiveness, we need to know who the poor are, where they reside, why they are poor, and
how they can be helped to exit from poverty.


Poverty in Egypt

Using the 1990-91 CAPMAS Income and Expenditure Survey for urban and rural
Egypt, poverty indices indicate that:

Poverty alleviation policies must focus on Upper Egypt, since this is where
poverty incidence is highest.

Poverty is more evenly shared in Upper Egypt, as evidenced by lower levels of
expenditure inequality.

Of all governorates, Cairo contains the largest number of the poor, due to its
large population.

It is clear that in both urban and rural areas, spending on food dwarfs spending
on all other categories, with food expenditure accounting for at least half of total
expenditure. For the poor, this share is much higher.





-21 -


Food items are heavily subsidized, particularly in urban areas. For the lowest
expenditure quartile in urban areas, food subsidies were equivalent to over 16
percent of total household expenditure. This proportion was much lower in
rural areas, where the equivalent figure for the lowest quartile was less than 5
percent. This, coupled with the low income elasticity of demand for bread, the
main source of calories, implies that the removal of food subsidies would hurt
the consumption of the urban poor more than that of any other group.

The poor spend less on health, education, and transport. But they also devote
smaller proportions of their total expenditure to these items than do the nonpoor.
This is probably because the poor depend on the public provision of these
services, which are provided at subsidized prices.

Unfortunately, subsidized public services are usually of low quality. This
matters greatly in education and health. The low quality of the education
provided in public schools, the high student-teacher ratios, and the widespread
existence of private tutoring together conspire to prevent poor children from
getting as good an education as their wealthy peers.

Public spending on education and health is badly distributed. It appears that
Lower Egypt, and within Lower Egypt, Cairo, gets the lion's share of recurrent
expenditure on these two items, while Upper Egypt, with all its poverty, gets
much less than would be warranted by its share of the population.

These preliminary findings indicate that economic reforms may pose a threat to the
food security of the Egyptian poor if implemented in the absence of policies to help them
cope. This would suggest that:

1. Changes to the ration card system should be gradual: for example, the cancellation of
red ration cards as opposed to all ration cards. In addition, the coverage of the green
ration cards could be reduced from the 82 percent of the population they currently
cover. Membership of consumer cooperatives also could be targeted to those most in
need. At present, it is quite easy, for example, to avoid reporting second or third
incomes.

2. A pilot food stamp scheme should be considered. These food stamps could, moreover,
be distributed through the existing public health system and tied to the use of health
care facilities. This way, the program could be targeted at anaemic pregnant and
lactating women as well as malnourished children under the age of six.

3. Public works programs with a built-in self-targeting mechanism, such as lower wage
rates that attract only the poor, could be introduced in Upper Egypt and possibly some
other disadvantaged urban areas.





-22-


4. Credit programs could be designed to smooth consumption and generate income.
Attention should be given not only to the provision of credit but also to providing
information on and assistance in starting small-scale businesses.

Research planned for 1995-98 aims for, among other things, a better understanding of
the nature of transitory poverty and chronic poverty: which individuals are likely to be able
to grow out of temporary hardship caused by reform, and which individuals will be unable
to cope?

Collaborating institutions include the Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation,
Institute of National Planning, Egypt; Cairo University; Zagazig University; the Central
Laboratory for Food and Feeds.


III. PAKISTAN: Food Policies and Food Security

Policymakers in Pakistan have placed much emphasis on rural poverty alleviation. A
better understanding of the sources of income and budget allocations of low-income
households is needed to better design and implement alternative poverty programs. This
research project, which will be completed at the end of 1994, represents the largest multiyear
cross-divisional project at IFPRI, with work being carried out in four of the five research
divisions under a coordinated work plan.

The overall objectives of the research include (1) analysis of the temporal dimensions
of poverty (modeling the dynamics of poverty using panel data-14 rounds-collected in
Pakistan between 1986 and 1993), which should add to the knowledge on household coping
strategies; and (2) providing technical support to the Government of Pakistan to undertake
intensive analysis of different aspects of poverty and household decisionmaking in Pakistan.

FCND's specific task is to conduct research on the following issues: rural credit
(reported under the MP5 subsection); intertemporal and regional aspects of poverty;
economic shocks, income effects, and child growth (reported on under the MP16 subsection);
household risk behavior; and national trends in nutrition. During 1994, analysis was pursued
on each of these tasks. One research report manuscript has been prepared in 1994 with three
more to be submitted in early 1995. A Johns Hopkins manuscript will also be prepared in
1995. Selected research highlights follow.


Temporal and Spatial Trends in Poverty: Can the Gap Be Closed?

Analyses of data from the nationally representative Household Income and Expenditure
Surveys indicate that the incidence and severity of poverty in Pakistan fell between 1984-85
and 1987-88. Moreover, the absolute magnitude of the poverty gap has some striking
implications. According to our estimates, the aggregate expenditure required to bridge the
poverty gap (Rs 5 billion) is only 10 percent more than the current public subsidy on wheat





-23-


and sugar; 0.48 percent of GNP at market prices; 2.74 percent of the reported (current)
budgetary expenditure; and 3.56 percent of the total tax revenue for 1990-91. The most
startling comparison is that the reported collection of Zakat and Ushr in 1990-91 was covered
55.75 percent of the poverty gap. As in Bangladesh, the potential impact of efficient
targeting is obvious.


The Uses and Abuses of Tests of Innate Ability for Pakistani Children

Raven's Colored Progressive Matrices test scores are often used to control for innate
ability in studies that examine the wage and health returns to schooling. Some research with
the Pakistan data advocates caution when using these matrices. We find statistically
significant provincial differences in test scores. If the three provinces to which the
respondents belong represent different cultures, this casts doubt on the "culture neutrality"
of the Colored Ravens Progressive Matrices. However, considerably more analysis across
districts is required to isolate the biases that may be leading to this result. This work will
continue in 1995.


Pakistan Agriculture: Is It Technically Efficient?

Technical efficiency in agriculture is crucial for food security and economic growth.
Stochastic production frontier analysis in the four survey districts shows that in Faisalabad,
the hypothesis of technical efficiency is rejected, whether or not one allows for shifts in the
technology frontier. Furthermore, the inefficiency, that is the gap between the maximum
achievable output and what is actually produced, has worsened at a fairly rapid rate. This
is probably because the frontier itself has shifted out over time. In Attock, the hypothesis
of no technical inefficiency cannot be rejected in both models. The stochastic production
frontier appears to be moving out over time, but this result is not statistically significant. In
Badin, as in Faisalabad, there appears to be technical inefficiency that is declining over time
if it is assumed that there is no Hicks-neutral technical change. However, when this
assumption is dropped, technical inefficiency remains constant over time. The results for Dir
show that technical inefficiencies are present but are not changing over time, whichever
model is chosen.

Collaborating institutions include the Ministry of Food and Agriculture, Planning
Commission, Government of Pakistan; the Pakistan Agricultural Research Council; Quaid-e-
Azam University.





-24-


2020 VISION: AN IFPRI-WIDE INITIATIVE

A 2020 Vision for Food, Agriculture, and the Environment is IFPRI's international
initiative to develop a shared vision and consensus for action on how to meet future world
food needs while reducing poverty and protecting the environment. FCND is playing an
important role in this 2020 Vision initiative. In addition to authoring policy briefs and
organizing roundtables, six specific activities are being undertaken.


The Prevalence of Malnutrition: Is There an Ecoregional Dimension?

Initial results from this research show that poverty incidence, as measured by preschool
child undernutrition, has an ecoregional dimension. Poverty is highest in the warm semi-arid
tropics and subtropics zones. The results hint at agricultural-productivity linkages in the
sense that the arid and semi-arid zone (AEZ1), the warm subhumid tropics (AEZ2), and the
cool tropics (AEZ4) have the highest rates of poverty and the smallest increases in land and
labor productivities. More work on this issue is required-particularly in the ecoregions with
semi-open economies-as many poverty solutions will be tied to sustainable agricultural
productivity in areas where the poor live.


Reducing Post-Consumption Food Losses

Good nutrition relies on food quantity and quality and access to clean water, good
sanitation, care, and health care. Population growth puts pressure on our capacity to produce
these food and nonfood inputs into good nutrition. Often, however, we assume that once a
household has access to the food needed for a healthy life for all its members and has no risk
of losing that access, access to all other nutrition inputs follows more or less automatically.
We cannot assume that the modulation of the flow and an increase in the level of income
provides households with an opportunity to spread nutrition risks. This is because: (1) there
may be low substitutability between food and nonfood nutrition inputs and (2) access to
nonfood nutrition inputs depends, in part, on the successful provision of the public goods.
This research activity is analyzing eight data sets to examine the associations between
household food security and access to nonfood inputs into nutrition. The result that nutrition
security does not follow, more or less automatically from food security, will suggest that
more attention needs to be placed on the synergisms between food access and access to other
nutrition inputs.


Shifts in Demand Caused by Urbanization

This research project examines the consequences of rapid urbanization on the direct
and indirect (livestock feed) demand for grains. Demand system estimates will be generated
for urban and rural data from China and Taiwan.





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Potential Impacts of AIDS on Population and Economic Growth Rates

Today in Sub-Saharan Africa, 1 in 40 adults is HIV positive. In Thailand, 1 in 50
adults is HIV positive. Exponential growth rates in HIV/AIDS incidence has shifted
HIV/AIDS from the public health arena into the development arena. This research examines
the impact of Human Immunodeficiency Virus/Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome
(HIV/AIDS) on population and economic growth rates, with an emphasis on Africa, as a
means to providing information relevant to a better assessment of food demand in the year
2020.


Labor Absorption in Sub-Saharan Agriculture in the Year 2020

While labor market outcomes may contribute to increasing rural poverty, it is the labor
market that is also a key to overcoming poverty. The ability of the poor to cope with
poverty-and to ultimately overcome it-depends critically on their labor supply
characteristics and their access to functioning labor markets. This research assigns countries
into policy relevant groupings and tracks their trends in rural labor supply and demand,
together with underlying factors, to the year 2020.


SSA Data for the IFPTSIM Model

FCND's contribution to the IFPRI IFPTSIM model for predicting food supply and
demand has been to prepare and clean detailed commodity-specific data series for a number
of Sub-Saharan country groupings.





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OUTREACH

I. Institution Building

Bangladesh

As a part of the Bangladesh project's effort to strengthen the analytical capacity of the
Food Planning and Monitoring Unit of the Ministry of Food (MOF), FCND conducted
training sessions in 1994 on the elements of demand analysis, focusing on interpretation and
sources of empirical estimates of consumer behavior. Also, eight government officials (four
from MOF and four from the Ministry of Education) were given practical training on
questionnaire design, sampling, and data collection through their participation in the two
surveys mentioned above.

To sustain analytical capacity, one should work with government, as a key user and
interpreter of analytical work. Any efforts at building analytical capacity, however, must
also look beyond government to ensure ongoing institution building. Probably the major
project contribution to sustained food policy analysis has centered on its Research Assistants
(RAs). Upon project completion, three RAs have taken faculty positions at Dhaka
University. Additionally, all three continue an active program of research focused on food
policy. A fourth enrolled in a Ph.D. program at the University of Illinois, in order to pursue
a professional research career. A fifth RA has taken a position as Head of Research and
Evaluation for Save the Children's (USA) program in Bangladesh. Four of these five RAs
worked exclusively on FCND research. In their new positions, they will continue to
contribute to sustained food policy analysis.


Pakistan

Institution building has also looked to the future in Pakistan. During 1994, three
Ph.D.s were completed by Pakistani nationals in the U.S., with supervision of FCND staff.
Eight other Ph.D. dissertations are in progress. Twenty graduates of Quaid-e-Azam
University, Islamabad, have also been trained in data collection, computer data entry, and
other aspects of household data analysis. To date, over 100 people have been similarly
trained during project operation. Many have gone on to be employed by government
agencies, consulting firms, and international agencies.


II. Advisory Services

Bangladesh

Senior project staff continued to offer substantial time in meeting advisory requests
from the Ministry of Food and USAID. Besides smaller spontaneous requests received
intermittently, FCND research fellows provided USAID with the Bellmon determination of






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food needs and disincentives analysis. This analysis determines how much food aid (wheat)
USAID calls forward for each fiscal year.

In addition to direct interaction with government policymakers, the project provided
indirect support (through discussion, provision of data, and reports) to USAID and other
donors active in food policy. The results are hard to quantify. As examples, the findings
of FCND's June 1993 report on "Food Consumption and Nutritional Effects of Targeted
Food Interventions in Bangladesh" have been fed into the preparation of the World Bank-
assisted Bangladesh National Nutrition Project. Also, based on the recommendations of this
study, the World Food Programme in Bangladesh is currently considering modifications or
reorientation of its Vulnerable Group Development Program activities in ways that may
enhance the program's nutritional impact on children.


Pakistan

Members of the Pakistan research team have continued to share their research findings
with a broad community, including advisory sessions for government ministries and academic
presentations. FCND also helped to organize the Tenth Annual General Meeting of the
Pakistan Society of Development Economics in April. The address to the conference by
IFPRI's Director General, Per Pinstrup-Andersen, received widespread print and electronic
media coverage, including a prime-time television interview. In addition, numerous meetings
were held with leading Pakistani policymakers, researchers, and donors.


III. Outreach Publications

Training Manual on the Social Impacts of Structural Adjustment

In collaboration with FAO and other collaborators, FCND and the Outreach Division
are preparing a training manual on the Social Impacts of Structural Adjustment. FCND's
role is to point out where intrahousehold analysis may be critical in understanding (1) how
the burdens of adjustment fall, and who is best able to cope with them, and (2) where the
new opportunities fall, and who is best able to seize them.


Econometrics Manual

The gap between actual policy research and econometrics text books is large. FCND
has taken the lead in filling that gap by producing a guide to specification testing, based on
supplied data from the rural Philippines. Aimed at policy analysts in the developing and
developed world, this manuscript actually provides program code and output from SAS-PC,
SPSS/PC, and Gauss386. The emphasis of this manual is very much on when, why, and
how to use approximately 20 econometric tests and procedures (spline regressions, nonnested
tests, Hausman tests, etc.).





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UN/Multilateral Outreach

FCND has been asked to contribute to several important documents being prepared in
1995: (1) a section on Gender and Poverty for the UN Statistical Office's World's Women;
(2) the 1995 UNDP Human Development Report team has requested a number of our
documents on intrahousehold and gender issues for the 1995 Report, which will emphasize
gender analysis; (3) FCND is contributing an eight-country study of women's time allocation
to the World Bank's Report for the UN Conference on Women in Beijing. In addition,
FCND is coordinating IFPRI-wide input into the Beijing conference.


Video Outreach

In May, a video documentary was produced, which captures IFPRI's work in
Bangladesh and Pakistan. The video features interviews with many leading policymakers,
academics, and donors discussing the impact of IFPRI research.






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IV. Brainstorming Seminars

In 1994, FCND initiated a series of informal brainstorming seminars on issues
particularly relevant to FCND work and issues that may become more relevant in the future.

r


May 3


May

May

May


June 8


June 15


June 22


August 24


October 5


November 2


November 16



December 7

December 14


FCND BRAINSTORMING SEMINARS, 1994

Jay Ross, Comell University A New Measure of Intrahousehold Nutrition
Inequality.

Sumiter Broca, IFPRI Precautionary Savings and Consumption.

Bruce Fitzgerald, World Bank Cross Subsidies and the Poor.

Shakuntula Thilsted Fish and Rice Cultivation: Implications for
Micronutrient Consumption.

Anne Swindale, ISTI Economic Stabilization and Nutrition in the Dominican
Republic.

Agnes Quisumbing, World Bank Gender Differences in Agricultural
Productivity.

Jane Hopkins and Carol Levin, IFPRI Women's Income and Household
Expenditure Patterns: Gender or Flow? Evidence from Niger and Indonesia.

James Garrett, IFPRI Price Liberalization and Price Transmission in Food
and Agricultural Markets in Bolivia: A Politico-Economic Approach.

Punitha Narayanasamy, IFPRI Distributional Consequences of Subsidies on
Food Security in Farming Households: Empirical Evidence from South India.

Sidney Schuler, John Snow International Effects of Rural Credit Programs
and Women's Empowerment on Use of Contraception in Bangladesh.

Kene Ezemenari, World Bank Production Risk and Commercialization of
Agriculture in Rwanda: Implications for Household Labor Supply and Food
Security.

Christine Pefia, IFPRI and Boston University Intrahousehold Modelling.

Hilary Feldstein, CGIAR Gender Program Title to be announced.





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V. Workshop Calendar 1994

In addition to the numerous presentations and participation in other conferences,
workshops, panels, symposia, and roundtables, FCND organized several workshops, etc.,
in 1994.



FCND-ORGANIZED EVENTS IN 1994


January Micronutrients Conference, Annapolis

March Successful Nutrition Programs Workshop, IFPRI

May FCND Retreat, Airlie House, Virginia.

June Ghana Indicators Workshop, Hoho, Ghana

August Micronutrients Roundtable, World Bank

August Intrahousehold Principal Papers Session, AAEA, San Diego

September Latin America/2020 Roundtable, IFPRI

October NGO/2020 Roundtable, IFPRI

December Pakistan Project Wrap-Up Workshop





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THE FUTURE: FCND IN 1995 AND BEYOND

After extensive discussion within the Division (see Box 2, which summarizes
discussions from the retreat) and among our collaborators, we have decided that the FCND
program of research will not undergo any radical changes in the near future. IFPRI's
medium-term plan (MTP) outlines the six MPs in which the Division conducts research
within the period 1993-1998. We do, however, propose a new alignment of MPs. The new
alignment reflects research that has graduated to MP status, work that has evolved into
another MP area, and research areas that have been identified as new priority areas.

Specific changes include:

The graduation of the micronutrients research to a multicountry research
program.

The creation of a new MP on Safety Nets (see Box 1) that draws together
research on vulnerability mapping, nutrition indicators, targeting, poverty
profiles, labor-intensive public works, and reflects increasing interest in effective
food aid uses.

The creation of a new MP on Nonfood Inputs into Nutrition-a theme that has
repeatedly arisen in our research of the past few years.

A reassignment of the labor-intensive public works research under the proposed
Safety Nets MP.

A drawing to a close of the Monitoring and Famine MPs.

Table 2 outlines the evolution of this six-MP set (Credit, Safety Nets, Intrahousehold,
Urban, Micronutrients, and Nonfood Nutrition) from the early 1980s through to the present.





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BOX 1

SAFETY NETS


The 1980s and early 1990s witnessed the widespread implementation of structural
adjustment programs in many countries and, with it, a growing awareness of the
need for social safety nets. Safety nets differ from income transfer programs
although both should form a permanent part of national welfare systems. The
former are designed to be accessed temporarily by individuals who require some
measure of income insurance to protect them in times of adverse economic or
climatic shocks. Hence the new awareness for safety net provision during
implementation of economic adjustment programs that may place undue hardship
on some individuals, pending full adjustment of the economy. Income transfers,
on the other hand, will always be necessary for some members of a society-the
elderly, those in poor health.

A public safety net system will be made up of a number of different programs,
dependent on the nature of the adverse shock, the surrounding culture and
location, and availability of resources. Safety net measures can include credit
programs and public works employment schemes as well as temporary food
subsidies and transfer programs. FCND research in this important area will focus
on how to design optimal safety net systems that ensure cost effectiveness and
effective targeting to those in need. A study of informal transfer mechanisms and
safety nets that operate in different communities will provide valuable information
on how safety nets are used by the poor. An improved understanding of informal
mechanisms will aid in the design of complementary formal safety nets and
increased provision when informal systems are under extreme stress and
vulnerable to collapse, such as in famine situations.






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BOX 2

FUTURE RESEARCH DIRECTIONS:
AREAS IDENTIFIED AT THE 1994 RETREAT

What

Alternative Policies Evaluation
Health/Nutrition Labor Supply/Productivity
Nonfood Inputs into Nutrition
HIV/AIDS Food Security
Fertility Food Security
SHousehold-Community Interactions
Credit-Income Risk Interactions

How

Multidisciplinary
SMore Integration of Theory and Research
More on National-Level Trends
Social Policy Formulation Processes

Who

SSchool-age Children
SCapacity of Governments to Deliver

Where


S Ecoregions




Table 2-FCND's proposed set of multicountry projects: Questions to be answered


1982-88 Emergent Themes CURRENT MPs PROPOSED MPs Key Questions
1988-1992 and Related Work

Credit (MP5, Pakistan) RURAL FINANCE When and how does access to credit:
FOR FOOD protect household assets and the environment through
SECURITY an improved ability to smooth consumption while
repaying the loan?
permanently alter income streams through an improved
ability to bear risky investments while repaying the loan?

Indicators (MP16)
Is there an increasing need for food security safety nets
Targeting (Bangladesh) (AIDS/aging/displaced people)?
SAFETY NETS
amine F amine (MP15)/ FOR FOOD What is the optimal mix of interventions for safety nets?
Vulnerability Mapping SECURITY
Vulner y M g What is the role of food aid in food security safety nets?
Labor/Public Works
(MP6)

Urban (MP14) URBAN FOOD What are the rates and causes of urban food insecurity?
SECURITY How different are the solutions from rural solutions?
How linked are the solutions to the rural areas?

Commercialization Intrahousehold/ Intrahousehold/Gender INTRAHOUSE- What are the agricultural productivity and natural resource
Gender (MP17) HOLD/GENDER rehabilitation foregone due to gender asymmetries in
Food Subsidies rights?

Micronutrients Micronutrients FOOD QUALITY/ Can improved plant mineral uptake lead to improved yield
HIDDEN and improved mineral bioavailability?
HUNGER Can we demonstrate a link between micronutrients and
morbidity?

Nonfood Inputs Nonfood Inputs into NUTRITION When and how are water, sanitation, care, and health
into Nutrition Nutrition (Pakistan) SECURITY inputs constraints to turning food security into nutrition
security?
What are the social and private returns to improved
nutrition (economic growth and lower fertility)?
What is the willingness to pay for improved services?



























ANNEX A: DIVISIONAL PUBLICATIONS DURING 1994





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DIVISIONAL PUBLICATIONS


PUBLICATIONS DURING 19941

I. Famine in Africa

Braun, J. von, T. Teklu, and P. Webb. 1994. Famines in Africa: Causes, mitigation, and
prevention. Submitted to PRC (April).

Braun, J. von, T. Teklu, and P. Webb. Forthcoming (1995). Famine in Africa. Baltimore,
Md., U.S.A.: Johns Hopkins University Press.

Teklu, T. 1994. The prevention and mitigation of famine: Policy lessons from Botswana
and Sudan. Disasters.

Webb, P. Forthcoming (1994). From famine to food security in the Horn of Africa. In
Disaster and development in the Horn of Africa, ed. J. Sorenson. London:
Macmillan Press.

Webb, P. Forthcoming (1994). Famine and food security in Africa in the 1990s: The
search for appropriate policies. In Critical African economic issues, ed. S. Wangwe,
A. Atsain, and A. Drabek. Nairobi: African Economic Research Council.

Webb, P. Forthcoming (1994). Drought impact on production and consumption in Ethiopia.
SCN News (October-December).

Webb, P., and J. von Braun. 1994. Famine and food security in Ethiopia: Lessons for
Africa. Chichester, England: John Wiley and Sons.

Webb, P., and Y. Habtu. 1994. Famine in Africa: Extreme expression of poverty.
Research and Exploration (Spring).

Webb, P., E. Richardson, S. Seyoum, and Y. Yohannes. 1994. Vulnerability mapping and
geographical targeting: An exploratory methodology applied to Ethiopia. Health and
Human Resources Analysis for Africa Project. Report to USAID.






1 Output listed includes (1) reports and papers published in 1994 and (2) reports and
papers accepted for publication during the course of 1994. For relevant output published
earlier under each of the projects, please refer to IFPRI publications listings.





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II. Labor Market Interventions for Food Security

Ahmed, A. 1994. Input-output coefficients for estimating rice production costs and returns
in Bangladesh. Report for the Bangladesh Food Policy Project (BFPP) submitted to
USAID, Dhaka, Bangladesh.

Ahmed, A., and Y. Shams. 1994. Nutritional effects of cash versus commodity-based
public works program. Report for the Bangladesh Food Policy Project (BFPP)
submitted to USAID, Dhaka, Bangladesh.

von Braun, J., ed. 1994. Proceedings of the international workshop on employment for
poverty alleviation and food security. Donor report.

Brown, L. R. 1994. Potential economic impact of AIDS: Labor, agriculture, and food
security. Aidslink. Washington, D.C.: National Council for International Health.

Brown, L. R., P. Webb, and L. Haddad. 1994. The role of labor in household food
security: Implications of AIDS in Africa. Food Policy 19 (6).

Brown, L. R., Y. Yohannes, and P. Webb. Forthcoming (1994). Rural labor-intensive
public works programs: Impacts of male and female participation on preschooler
nutrition. Evidence from Niger. American Journal of Agricultural Economics.

Ezemenari, K., and S. Kumar. 1994. Effect of participation in rural public works programs
on income risk: Some evidence from Ethiopia. International Food Policy Research
Institute, Washington, D.C. Mimeo.

Teklu, T. 1994. Employment and labor diversification practices in rural Africa:
Implications for design of employment programs. In proceedings of the De-
agrarianization and Rural Employment Workshop, Leiden, Netherlands.

Teklu, T. 1994. Minor roads program in Kenya: Potential for short-term poverty reduction
through asset creation. Report submitted to the World Bank.

Teklu, T. 1994. Labor-intensive rural roads in Kenya, Tanzania, and Botswana: Some
evidence on design and practice. International Food Policy Research Institute,
Washington, D.C. Mimeo.

Teklu, T. 1994. Effect of participation in public works on demand for rural credit:
Botswana and Ethiopia. In progress for presentation in November 1994.

Teklu, T. 1994. Targeting the poor through public works programs: Some evidence from
Sub-Saharan Africa. In progress for presentation in November 1994.





-38-


Working Group on Targeted Food Interventions (drafted by S. Haggblade and A. Ahmed).
1994. Options for targeting food interventions in Bangladesh. IFPRI Working Paper.


III. Credit Policies for Food Security of the Poor

Ali, S. M., H. El-Laithy, A. S. Hamza, S. J. Malik, M. S. Moustafa, and M. Zeller. 1994.
Food policy reform in Egypt: Its impact on the poor. Final report submitted to the
Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation, Government of the Arab Republic of
Egypt.

Aly, I. S., S. Malik, and M. Zeller. 1994. The rural finance sector in Egypt-PBDAC's
future role and policy options. Final report submitted to the Ministry of Agriculture
and Land Reclamation, Government of the Arab Republic of Egypt.

Braun, J. von, S. Malik, and M. Zeller. Forthcoming (1994). Credit markets, input support
policies, and the poor in Madagascar and Pakistan. Journal of International
Agriculture.

Braun, J. von, S. Malik, and M. Zeller. Forthcoming (1994). Credit markets and the poor:
Insights from Africa and Asia. In Post-green revolution agricultural development
strategies in the Third World: What Next?. Baltimore, Md., U.S.A.: Johns Hopkins
University Press.

Malik, S., S. Broca, and M. Gill. Forthcoming (1994). Credit constraints and household
expenditure behavior in selected areas of rural Pakistan. Savings and Development.

Zeller, M. 1994. Determinants of credit rationing: A study of informal lenders and formal
credit groups in Madagascar. Food Consumption and Nutrition Division Discussion
Paper 2.

Zeller, M. 1994. The demand for financial services by rural households-Theory and
empirical findings. In Report from the Nordic Workshop on Rural Financial Services
in Africa, Vol. 2. Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, International Rural
Development Centre.

Zeller, M. 1994. Determinants of credit rationing: A study of informal lenders and formal
groups in Madagascar. World Development.

Zeller, M., I. A. Siddik, and S. Malik. 1994. The rural finance sector in Egypt: PBDAC's
future role and policy options. International Food Policy Research Institute,
Washington, D.C. January. Mimeo.

Zeller, M., J. von Braun, K. Johm, and D. Puetz. 1994. Sources and terms of credit for
the rural poor in The Gambia: Policy implications. Savings and Development.





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Zeller, M., G. Schrieder, J. von Braun, and F. Heidhues. Forthcoming (1994). Rural
finance for food security of the poor: Concept, review, and implications for research
and policy. Submitted for Food Policy Review series. Washington, D.C.:
International Food Policy Research Institute.

Zeller, M., A. Ahmed, J. von Braun, F. Heidhues, and Z. Ling. 1994. Credit for the rural
poor: The case of Bangladesh and China and a multicountry synthesis. Short Interim
Report submitted to the German Agency for Technical Cooperation.


IV. Food Security and Nutrition Monitoring

Ahmed, A. Forthcoming (1994). Targeted interventions. In Evolving food markets and
food policy in Bangladesh, Chapter 4.

Alderman, H., and M. Garcia. 1994. Food security and health security: Explaining the
levels of nutritional status in Pakistan. Economic Development and Cultural Change
42 (3).

Ali Khan, M., and S. Malik. 1994. Education, income, and nutrition: An exploration of
Pakistan data. International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, D.C.
Mimeo.

Ali, Sonai, H. El-Laithy, S. Malik, S. Moustapha, and M. Zeller. 1994. Food policy
reform in Egypt: Its impact on the poor. International Food Policy Research Institute,
Washington, D.C. Mimeo.

Chung, K., L. Haddad, and J. Ramakrishna. 1994. Alternative approaches to locating the
food insecure: Evidence from South India. Report to USAID Office of Nutrition for
IMPACT Project. International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, D.C.

Haddad L., E. Kennedy, and J. Sullivan. 1994. Choice of indicators for food security and
nutrition monitoring. Food Policy 19 (3).

Immink, M., E. Kennedy, H. Hahn, E. Payongayong, R. Siberian, and I. Pinto-Paiz. 1993.
Nontraditional export crops among smallholder farmers and production, income,
nutrition, and quality of life effects. A comparative analysis 1985-1991. Report to
USAID Office of Nutrition for IMPACT Project. International Food Policy Research
Institute, Washington, D.C.

Immink, M., E. Payongayong, and E. Kennedy. 1994. Nontraditional agricultural exports
and income inequality among smallholder farmers in Guatemala. Submitted to World
Development.





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Kennedy, E., E. Payongayong, L. Haddad, T. Tshibaka, R Agble, and R. Tetebo. 1994.
Impacts of credit programs on food security and nutrition in Ghana. Report to
USAID, Office of Nutrition for IMPACT Project. International Food Policy Research
Institute, Washington, D.C.

Kumar, S., K. Ezemenari, and S. Bhattarai. 1994. Income risk as a factor in household
food consumption behavior: Evidence from Southern Shoa, Ethiopia. Presented at
the 37th Annual Meeting of the African Studies Association, 3-6 November, Toronto,
Canada.

Malik, S. 1994. An analysis of the issues in food security. A background report prepared
for the Pakistan Nutrition Project. International Food Policy Research Institute,
Washington, D.C. Mimeo.

Malik, S. 1994. Poverty and the need for effective targeting: A case study of Pakistan
1990-91. Submitted to Economic Letters.

Malik, S., and H. El-Laithy. 1994. Egypt and Pakistan: A comparison of poverty
estimates and indicators 1990-91. International Food Policy Research Institute,
Washington, D.C. Mimeo.

Teklu, T. 1994. Incidence and determinants of child malnutrition in rural Sudan.
Submitted for publication. International Food Policy Research Institute. Washington,
D.C. Mimeo.

Webb, P., and D. L. Coppock. Forthcoming (1995). Food security and sustainable growth
for pastoral systems in semi-arid Africa. In Agricultural sustainability, growth, and
poverty alleviation: Issues and policies, ed. S. Vosti, T. Reardon, and W. von Urff.
Baltimore, Md., U.S.A.: Johns Hopkins University Press.


V. Gender and Intrahousehold Aspects of Food Policy

Alderman, H., L. Haddad, J. Hoddinott, and S. Vosti. 1994. Strengthening agricultural and
natural resource policy through intrahousehold analysis: An introduction. American
Journal of Agricultural Economics.

Alderman, H., Chiappori, P., L. Haddad, J. Hoddinott, and R. Kanbur. 1995. Unitary
versus collective models of the household: Time to shift the burden of proof?. World
Bank Research Observer.

Ali Khan, M., and S. Malik. 1994. Son-preference interspousal communication and desired
fertility in Pakistan. Outreach Division Discussion Paper 1. Washington, D.C.:
International Food Policy Research Institute.





-41 -


Bouis, H., M. Palabrica-Costello, O. Solon, and A. Limbo. 1994. Understanding gender-
differentiated constraints to farm household investments in adolescents: Implications
for their nutritional status. Paper presented at the Final Project Workshop, Adolescent
Girls Research Program, International Center for Research on Women. May.

Haddad, L. 1993. Improving food policy through a better understanding of intrahousehold
resource allocation. Conference Report. Food Policy (December).

Haddad, L. 1994. Strengthening food policy through intrahousehold analysis. Food Policy
19 (4).

Haddad, L., and J. Hoddinott. 1994. Women's income and boy-girl nutrition outcomes in
the C6te d'Ivoire. World Development.

Haddad, L., and E. Kennedy. 1994. Are preschoolers from female-headed households less
malnourished: A comparative analysis of results from Ghana and Kenya. Journal of
Development Studies 30 (3).

Haddad, L., and C. Pefia. 1994. Gender and poverty: Review and new evidence. Report
prepared for the Statistical Office of the United Nations. International Food Policy
Research Institute, Washington, D.C.

Haddad, L., R. Kanbur, and H. Bouis. 1995. Intrahousehold inequality and average
household well-being: Evidence on calorie intakes and energy expenditures from the
Philippines. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics.

Haddad, L., C. Pefia, and A. Slack. 1994. Poverty and nutrition within households:
Review and new evidence. International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington,
D.C., and World Health Organization. Mimeo.

Haddad, L., L. R. Brown, A. Richter, and L. Smith. 1995. The gender dimensions of
economic adjustment policies: Potential interactions and evidence to date. World
Development.

Hoddinott, J., and L. Haddad. 1994. Does female income share influence household
expenditure patterns?. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics.

Hopkins, J., C. Levin, and L. Haddad. 1994. Women's farm income and household
expenditure patterns: Gender or flow? Evidence from Niger and Indonesia.
American Journal of Agricultural Economics.

Kanbur, R., and L. Haddad. 1994. Are better-off households more unequal or less
unequal? A bargaining-theoretic approach to 'Kuznets effects' at the micro level.
Oxford Economic Papers 46.





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Kennedy, E., L. Haddad, and E. Jacinto. 1994. The role of women's status in determining
marital fertility and nutrition: A case study from rural Kenya. Report to Rockefeller
Foundation. International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, D.C. Mimeo.

Kumar, S. 1994. Adoption of hybrid maize in Zambia: Effects on gender roles in
agriculture, food consumption, and nutrition. Research Report 100. Washington,
D.C.: International Food Policy Research Institute.

Nazli, H., N. Sultana, and S. Malik. 1994. Determinants of female time allocation in
selected districts of rural Pakistan. The Pakistan Development Review 33 (4) (Winter).

Paolisso, M., S. Regmi, L. Haddad, and Bishwa Tiwari. 1994. The impact of agricultural
commercialization on men's and women's farm labor: Evidence from Nepal.
Collaborative Research Report. International Center for Research on Women,
Washington, D.C.

Pefia, C., P. Webb, and L. Haddad. 1994. Women's economic advancement through
agricultural change: A review of donor experience. Report prepared for International
Fund for Agricultural Development. International Food Policy Research Institute,
Washington, D.C.


VI. Agriculture, Food, and Nutrition Implications of Urbanization

Teklu, T. 1994. Urban poverty, nutritional status, and public policy in Sudan, 1994.
Submitted for publication.


VII. Agricultural Strategies to Overcome Micronutrient Malnutrition

Ahmed, A. Forthcoming. Determinants of consumption and nutritional status of rural
households. In Evolving food markets and food policy in Bangladesh, Chapter 9.

Bouis, H. 1994. The effect of income on demand for food in poor countries: Are our food
consumption data bases giving us reliable estimates? Journal of Development
Economics.

Bouis, H. 1994. Agricultural technology and food policy to combat iron deficiency in
developing countries. Food Consumption and Nutrition Division Discussion Paper 1.
Washington, D.C.: International Food Policy Research Institute.

Bouis, H. 1994. Income, demand for food staples, and demand for diet quality: Exploring
the relationship between preferences for calories and micronutrient requirements.
Paper presented at the IFPRI/IRRI Rice project Workshop, January.










Bouis, H., and G. Scott. 1994. Demand for high value secondary crops in developing
countries: The case of potatoes in Bangladesh and Pakistan. World Development.

Teklu, T. 1994. Agricultural technology, health, and nutrition linkages: Some recent
evidence. Paper presented at the East and South African Household Food Security
Network, Durban, South Africa.

Teklu, T. 1994. Food demand studies in Sub-Saharan Africa: Survey of evidence and
method. Paper presented at the International Agricultural Economic Association
meetings, Harare.


VIII. 2020 Vision

Bouis, H. 1994. Methodological issues in supply and demand projections. Paper presented
at IFPRI Roundtable Meeting on Population and Food in the Early 21st Century:
Meeting Future Needs of an Increasing World Population. February.

Brown, L. R., and L. J. Haddad. 1994. Agricultural growth as a key to poverty alleviation.
2020 Vision for Food, Agriculture, and the Environment Policy Brief 7. Washington,
D.C.: International Food Policy Research Institute.

Garcia, M., M. Sharma, A Qureshi, and L. R. Brown. 1994. Overcoming malnutrition:
Is there an ecoregional dimension. Paper presented at the Ecoregional 2020 Vision
Workshop, Airlie House, Va., U.S.A., November 7-9.


IX. Other Publications

Malik, S. 1994. Poverty in Pakistan: 1984-88 and 1990-91. International Food Policy
Research Institute, Washington, D.C. Mimeo.

Malik, S. 1994. Review of "Agribusiness and rural enterprise." The Pakistan Development
Review 33 (1) (Spring).

Malik, S. 1994. Review of "Agricultural research policy: International quantitative
prospectives" The Pakistan Development Review 33 (2) (Summer).

Malik, S., and G. N. Farooqi. 1994. An application of Raven's coloured progressive
matrices as a measure of latent ability in children under the age of 11 years in selected
rural areas of Pakistan. Outreach Division Discussion Paper 2. Washington, D.C.:
International Food Policy Research Institute.

Malik, S., S. Aftab, and N. Sultana. 1994. Pakistan economic performance (1947-93): A
descriptive analysis. Lahore: SURE Publishers, Pakistan, October.





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Malik, S., M. Hussain, and N. Shirazi. 1994. The role of infaq in poverty alleviation in
Pakistan. The Pakistan Development Review 33 (4) (Winter).

Naseem, S. M., S. Malik, and M. Mahmood. 1994. Rural poverty in Pakistan: Some
issues and policy options. Asian Development Bank, Manila. Mimeo.

Webb, P. 1994. Guests of the Crown: Convicts and liberated slaves on McCarthy Island,
The Gambia. The Geographic Journal.





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NEW BOOKS FROM FCND


Technical Change and Commercialization of Agriculture: Effects on
Food Security and Nutrition, edited by Joachim von Braun and
Eileen Kennedy. Johns Hopkins University Press.

A number of studies have concluded that specific projects or policies that
promote cash cropping have had negative effects on food consumption and
nutrition of the rural poor. This research has centered on numerous
country studies aimed at improving our understanding of the effects of
technical change and commercialization of traditional agriculture on
production, income, consumption, and nutrition of the rural poor. The
goal has been to contribute to a more effective program and project
design. The research shows that commercialization has a wide range of
impacts on income and nutrition and explains why outcomes differ
according to case study conditions.





Famine and Food Security in Ethiopia. Lessons for Africa, by Patrick
Webb and Joachim von Braun. John Wiley and Sons.

The prevalent and generally accepted image of the famine in Ethiopia has
been one of hopeless inevitability, with food shortage and starvation being
an unavoidable consequence of environmental hardship combined with
economic and political mismanagement and social chaos. This research
shows that with sound coping strategies in the context of a workable policy
and adequate and appropriate investment, every Ethiopian can be fed even
in conditions of economic and environmental adversity, and that poverty,
the root cause of famine, can be eradicated.





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FCND RESEARCH REPORTS/BOOK MANUSCRIPTS
PLANNED FOR 1995


Famine in Africa Book
Risk and Production
Credit Synthesis
Credit Use/Pakistan
Credit Use/Nepal
Credit Use/Madagascar
Savings and Consumption/Pakistan
Niger/Public Works
Botswana/Public Works
Ethiopia/Public Works
Income Growth and Inequality/Pakistan
Pakistan Book
Bangladesh/ Food Security Targeting
Food Security/Wheat in Pakistan
Intrahousehold Book
Adolescent Nutrition
Nutrition Indicators in India


von Braun, Teklu, Webb
Ezemenari
Zeller and von Braun
Malik
Sharma and Zeller
Zeller
Broca/Malik
Webb and Yohannes
Teklu and Yohannes
Kumar et. al.
Malik and Gill
Malik et. al.
Ahmed
Malik
Haddad, Hoddinott, Alderman
Bouis
Haddad and Chung





-47-


FCND CALENDAR 1995

January Micronutrients Follow-Up Roundtable, IFPRI
January IDC/Six panel sessions on Food Security, Washington, D.C.
January IFPRI/FAO Food Security Panel, Social Development Summit
PrepCom 3, New York
February Food Aid Workshop, Addis Ababa
March South Africa Food Security Conference, Johannesburg
March South Asia/2020 Workshop, Nepal
April Vulnerability Mapping Workshop
May FCND Retreat, Airlie
May Indicators Roundtable, Accra
June Indicators Roundtable, Nairobi
July Indicators Roundtable, Hyderabad
August Indicators Roundtable, Mali
Nov.-Dec. Rural Finance Workshop, Washington, D.C.



























ANNEX B:
STAFF OF THE FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION DIVISION





STAFF OF THE FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION DIVISION
(November 1994)


HADDAD, Lawrence
AHMED, Akhter
BOUIS, Howarth
GARCIA, Marito
HUANG, Jikun
KENNEDY, Eileen
KUMAR, Shubh
MALIK, Sohail
TEKLU, Tesfaye
WEBB, Patrick
ZELLER, Manfred
RICHARDSON, Edgar
BHATTARAI, Saroj
BROWN, Lynn
NOVENARIO, Mary Jane
PAYONGAYONG, Ellen
PENA, Christine
SHARMA, Manohar
SLACK, Alison
SEYOUM, Senait
YOHANNES, Yisehac
BROCA, Sumiter
DULLIN -JONES, Luz
GILL, Manzoor
JACINTO, Elizabeth
QURESHI, Aamir
ASPILLERA, Lynette
ABAD, Christina
ADDAE-MINTAH, Julia
WILLIS, Jay
Visiting Researchers
CHUNG, Kimberly
EZEMENARI, Kene
FELDSTEIN, Hilary
IMMINK, Maarten D.C.
Intern Program
MUSHTAQ, Mohammad
KHAN, Zahia
MOGUES, Mimi
NIELSEN, Jens
PRAVEEN, Samina
SEMLER, Constance
ULLAH, Hafeez


Director, U.K.
Research Fellow, Bangladesh
Research Fellow, U.S.A.
Research Fellow, Philippines'
Research Fellow, China
Research Fellow, U.S.A.2
Research Fellow, India
Research Fellow, Pakistan3
Research Fellow, Ethiopia
Research Fellow, U.K.4
Research Fellow, F.R. Germany'
GIS Specialist, U.S.A.6
Research Analyst, Nepal
Research Analyst, U.K.
Research Analyst, Philippines
Research Analyst, Philippines
Research Analyst, Philippines7
Research Analyst, Nepal
Research Analyst, U.S.A.
Research Analyst, Ethiopia
Research Analyst, Ethiopia
Sr. Research Assistant, India
Sr. Research Assistant, Philippiness
Sr. Research Assistant, Pakistan
Sr. Research Assistant, Philippines
Sr. Research Assistant, Pakistan
Administrative Assistant, Philippines
Division Secretary, Philippines
Division Secretary, Ghana
Word Processor, U.S.A.


ICRISAT
World Bank
CGIAR Gender Program
Visiting Researcher


Pakistan
Pakistan
Ethiopia
Denmark
Pakistan
U.S.A.
Pakistan


Joined the World Bank in August.
Joined USDA in March.
Joint appointment with Outreach Division at IFPRI.
Joined the World Food Programme in September.
Left IFPRI in September.
Now Visiting researcher.
Left IPPRI in October.




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