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Title: consequences of small rice farm mechanization on production, incomes, and rural employment in selected countries of asia
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Title: consequences of small rice farm mechanization on production, incomes, and rural employment in selected countries of asia
Series Title: consequences of small rice farm mechanization on production, incomes, and rural employment in selected countries of asia
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Creator: Billings, Martin H.
Publisher: The International Rice Research Institute
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Table of Contents
    Front Cover
        Front Cover
    Main
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Full Text

912,


TEAM EVALUATION REPORT

OF THE

PROJECT ENTITLED:


THE CONSEQUENCES OF SMALL RICE FARM MECHANIZATION ON PRODUCTION,

INCOMES, AND RURAL EMPLOYMENT IN SELECTED COUNTRIES OF ASIA





Contractor: The International Rice Research Institute
Los Banos, Philippines









by Review Team


Consisting of:


Martin Billings
USAID/Manila, Philippines

Rex Rehnberg, (Project Manager)
DS/AGR
USAID/W, Washington, D. C.

Stanley S. Johnson,(Rapporteur)
USDA/ESCS
Davis, CA


Review period: October 1-6, 1979








I. Introduction

This report summarizes the findings and conclusions resulting from a

team review of the project "The Consequences of Small Rice Farm Mechanization

on Production, Incomes and Rural Employment in Selected Countries of Asia",

hereafter referred to as the IRRI Mechanization Consequences Project. The

IRRI Mechanization Consequences Project is funded by the Agency for Inter-

national Development (AID) and administered by the Development Support Bureau,

Office of Agriculture (DS/AGR). The primary contractor is the International

Rice Research Institute (IRRI), Los Banos, Philippines. In turn, IRRI sub-

contracts with agencies in two countries, Thailand and Indonesia. A grant

to the Agricultural Development Council (ADC) is closely coordinated with,

but not a part of, this contract.

Since the project has now been underway for two years and there had been

no previous evaluation conducted, a three member team was designated to con-

duct a team review. The team was composed of the following:

Dr. Stanley S. Johnson, USDA, Davis, California rapporteur

Dr. Martin Billings, USAID/Manila

Dr. Rex Rehnberg, USAID/DS/AGR, Project Manager

The timing of the review coincided with the third project workshop held at

IRRI on October 1-4, 1979. The purpose of the workshop was to have the proj-

ect staff meet to assess the progress and problems associated wich data ac-

quisition, and to seek agreement on the choice of analytic techniques.

The review process was brief. The team assembled at Los Banos and at-

tended the workshop. While there, some team members visited the survey sites

north of Manila. In addition, the Project Manager after the workshop pro-







- L -


needed to visit all of the survey sites in Indonesia and Thailand. The draft

of this report, however, was written immediately following the workshop.

The charge given to the review team was as follows:

"The team will make an in-depth evaluation in order to:

(1) determine the progress of the project to date,

(2) appraise the impact on the project of the failure

to initiate work in Pakistan,

(3) evaluate the budget and work plan for the the next

year with special attention given to the proposed

method of data analysis and,

(4) make recommendations on termination, extension or

other modifications in the project".

Dr. N. C. Brady, Director General of IRRI, also supplied the team with a list

of issues that were of special concern to IRRI.

Consistent with the instructions given the review team, the organization

of this report is as follows:

(1) introduction

(2) background of the study

(3) management of project operations in Indonesia, Thailand

and the Philippines;

(4) performance of contractor toward achieving targets of the

project;

(5) adequacy of project strategy, resource input and imple-

mentation plan;






-3 -


(6) the budget;

(7) impact of the loss of Pakistan from the study;

(8) the grant to the Agricultural Development Council;

and

(9) summary of evaluation.

The team expresses appreciation to IRRI and to the agencies of the two

sub-contracting countries, Indonesia and Thailand, for their forebearance and

helpfulness in allowing the review team to participate in the workshop and to

interview project participants.

II. Background of Study

This project is implemented through a contract (tac 1466) for $653,600

with IRRI signed September 29, 1977 and a grant to the Agricultural Develop-

ment Council (ADC) for $115,000. The present contract expires on September

30, 1980.

The contract contained the following conditions specified by the AID

Research Advisory Committee (RAC) at its July, 1977 meeting: (a) expendi-
l/
tures not to exceed $40,000 are authorized only for Phase I research ac-

tivities and (b) expenditures for activities beyond Phase I will not be

authorized until RAC has reviewed the proposed research methodology.

A research planning workshop was held at IRRI on Octiber 31 November

1, 1977 at which the proposed methodology was developed. This resulted in

a revised research proposal which was submitted to RAC at the March 1978





1/
See p. 5 for definition of Phase I







-4-


meeting. RAC approved the proposal in its entirety subject to "allowing RAC

to review the proposed regional modelling specification sometime before the

beginning of Phase IV of the project". Administrative approval for release of

the funds was not obtained until July 1978.

Work was then initiated with study sites planned in the Philippines,

Indonesia, Thailand and Pakistan. Failure to secure a suitable cooperative

institution resulted in Pakistan being dropped from the study. Work was

initiated in the other 3 countries with progress and plans reviewed at a

second workshop held on September 11 13, 1978. Data instruments were de-

veloped with data collection beginning during the spring of 1979. A third

workshop with those individuals actively involved in the research was held on

October 1-4, 1979 with members of the Review Team in attendance. (See Attach-

ment 1 for list of participants).

The project proposal as approved contains the following basic elements:

A. Objectives:

(1) to evaluate the effects of farm mechanization on small rice

farms in selected locations in Asia.

(2) to develop an improved understanding of the tasks involved

in different systems of rice production.

(3) to improve the capacity of researchers within the region

to conduct such studies.

B. Levels of Concern:

(1) farm level studies of the production, resource use, income


and employment effect of mechanization.







-5-


(2) Regional modelling studies to examine national and

sub-national impacts of policy alternatives.

(3) Historical cross-country analysis of economic forces

and policies that have affected the adoption and use

of mechanization.

(4) Operational tasks required for successful intensifi-

cation of rice production.

C. Study Phases and Calendar:

(1) Phase I (September 1, 1977 to March 31, 1978)

Development of study design and methodology and

selection of collaborators.

(2) Phase II (April 1 to September 30, 1978)

Final selection of country sites, development of

field schedules, development and refinement of pro-

gramming models and extensive literature review.

(3) Phase III (October 1, 1978 to April 1, 1980)

Collection of field data, elementary field analysis,

data processing, verification and storage for later

analysis.

(4) Phase IV (September 1, 1979 to September 30, 1980)

Further development and application of regional models

to the study areas outside the Philippines, and general-

izing the results of the regional models to national im-

plications and for other countries.







-6 -


III. Management of Project Operations

Two aspects of management are covered here. First, the management of

the data collection effort is discussed; the communication between AID and

the contractor and between the contractor and the sub-contractors is dis-

cussed secondly.

Data Collection:

(a) The review team notes a decentralized style of management by IRRI

over the sub-contracting agencies. These sub-contractors have responsibility

for the conduct of the surveys and the subsequent analysis of their own data,

within the framework of mutual data instruments, survey procedures, and re-

search output objectives. A discussion of country management follows:

(1) Philippines. The Philippine survey operates out of IRRI to the

interview sites north of Manila in Nueva Ecija province (Fig. 1).

All survey workers are directly hired and supervised by the IRRI

Agricultural Engineering Department. The Philippine progress

report indicates a high level of enumerator training and super-

vision expertise. The survey appears to be well coordinated and

managed.

(2) Thailand. The Thai sub-contract is administered through two

institutions. Thammasat University in Bangkok provides one

co-team leader and the core technical staff. The Statistical

Section of Planning of the Ministry of Agriculture pro-

vides the field staff to conduct the field enumeration. Co-






- 7 -


ECIJA


PHILIPPINES


(S


INDONESIA


Survey and recordkeeping sites for Thailand, Indonesian and Philippine
components of mechanization project.


F~.gte 1








- 8 -


ordination between the two sub-contractor groups, is difficult.

A primary source of friction lies in the use of the enumerators

by the Ministry of Agriculture for alternative activities. The

'sub-contractor offsets these interruptions at least partly suc-

cessfully by additional enumerator training and more intensive

supervision. Other difficulties seem to be in the loss of pre-

cision in the data instruments due to inexact translation from

English into Thai, and the difficulty in mastering the complex

FAO data instruments. The review team recommends that the con-

tractor review and monitor the effect of interruption of enumer-

ators service and data instrument problems on the quality of

data obtained in the field.

(3) Indonesia. Funding for Indonesian activities is provided by

means of an agreement between IRRI and the Government of

Indonesia. The Indonesian activities are spatially separated

(two hours of flying time from Jakarta to Sulawesi) and are

operated independently, although coordinated through an agency

of the Indonesian government, the Rural Dynamics Group. The

sub-contractor and direct administrator of the West Java sur-

vey is a very professional organization with good leadership

and a capable staff. They are very familiar with the con-

ditions of the area surveyed and insist that enumerators and

supervisors and their families live within the areas surveyed.

In South Sulawesi, the location of the second site, management








- 9 -


is complicated by the division of staff and leadership among

three organizations: Hasanuddin University, the Extension Ser-

vice, and the Central Research Institute for Agriculture,

'Maros station. The inexperience of the leadership here has

been offset by the-provision by IRRI of a part-time American

staff from another project.

The review team recommends that the contractor carefully monitor the

Sulawesi management of the project.

After the collection, provision is made for editing and verifying the

schedules. Timeliness is important if call backs are necessary. Mutual pro-

cedures provide for manual editing within a reasonable time following enumer-

ation. It is difficult to perceive the edit status of the Thai and Indonesian

data. The verification procedure involves a computer check, and the programs

are lacking in Indonesia and Thailand. Field data are to be sent to the

Philippines for verification, necessitating a delay in edit check of up to a

year. A review of verification procedures was conducted at IRRI for all

country teams in October 1979 which should aid the edit process. The review

team recommends that careful attention should be paid to the edit/verifi-

cation process and the relationship to quality of data.

Coordination and Communication: The management of this project has been

less than satisfactory both from the standpoint of AID/Washington and IRRI.

The review team has identified several issues of concern and is optimistic

that the conduct of the review itself will lead to corrective measures.

During the short life of this project, three different individuals have








- 10 -


been assigned as project manager by DS/AGR. IRRI was not always promptly

notified of this change of assignment. As a result, two cables vital to

project management were never received by the project manager. In addition,

no prior'review of the project had been made and there was no Project Eval-

uation Statement in the files. This made it very difficult for the present

project manager to determine the exact status of the project.

The contract stipulates that progress reports shall be filed on a semi-

annual basis. A search of the files revealed that only one report had been

filed covering the period January March 1978. The review team recommends

compliance with the contract reporting requirement as it would greatly fa-

cilitate the management of the project.

At the conclusion of the review there will be on file the report of the

review team and a Project Evaluation Statement filed by the Project Manager.

If these documents are supplemented by semi-annual reports AID/Washington

will be provided with a much better information base than has been available

in the past.

Communications between IRRI and the sub-contractors is also made dif-

ficult by the spatial separation of the parties concerned. Periodic visits

are required to assure that the data collection, editing and verification

is proceeding on schedule. The review team recommends a careful assessment

of these communication needs and actions taken to assure that they are met.


IV. Performance of Contractor toward Achieving Targets of the Project.

The contract between AID and IRRI was signed September 27, 1977







-11- I
Figure 2

Timetable for Consequences of Small Farm Mechanization Project in Indonesia, Thailand and Philippines, 1977-1982

I---- 1977 1---- 1978 ---------1979 ---------- 1980 --------- 1981 ---4--

Country/Site /Activity Contract Funds
signed released
INDOUNESIA
o Pre planning
o Training
Soulh Sulawesi (Pindrong/Sidmp)
Census
a Survey: I st round
2nd round
3rd round
4 th round
51h round
Frrm recordkeeping ,;, /////#// / // ,
Analysis


E -- Projected igJ On going


M Cnmpleted








- 12 -


but funding was not forthcoming until July 1978, a delay of 10 months. Phase

I (see p. 5) started in September 1977 and collaborative agreements were

established with the two sub-contracting countries. Phases I and II were

well underway by the time of the second workshop held to develop and coor-

dinate research methods and design for the field component of the study was

held in September 1978. A revised research proposal had been prepared in

February 1978 and submitted to the RAC, who approved the research plan in

its entirety, subject to RAC review of the proposed regional modelling

specification before the contractor could begin Phase IV.

Due to lack of funding and other problems, Phase III, field data col-

lection, was delayed until after the scheduled date of October 1, 1978.

Prior to data collection, the census of households was undertaken, and

farmers to be interviewed were sampled from this list. The progress since

the beginning of data collection can be shown in Figure 2. In Thailand, the

survey began in August, 1979, a delay of roughly 10 months beyond the original

scheduled date. In Indonesia, the survey began in May 1979 in South Sulawesi

and in July 1979 in West Java, or delays of 7 and 9 months. In the

Philippines, the survey began in June 1979, a delay of 7 months. These de-

lays were due both to the lack of funding and to allow the timing of the

survey to coincide with the beginning of the local rice crop cycle.

The survey consists of two parts, the general and record keeping sur-

veys. The record keeping is an in-depth survey of a selected number of

households to provide a check on the reliability of the general survey.

The general survey is taken periodically in the crop year after key rice







- 13 -


operations, such as transplanting and harvesting. The progress of the general

survey and the record keeping likely will conform to the timetable as extended

from the actual beginning of the survey, for once the crop year has begun, the

survey staff is forced to keep up.

Progress toward achievement of the objectives is discussed below:

a) Evaluation effects of farm mechanization on small farms

in Southeast Asia. The project has moved from the proj-

ect design through the selection of survey respondents via

household censuses, to the initiation of the general and

record keeping surveys. A general consensus was reached

at the IRRI workshop (October 1-4, 1979) on the type of

analytical techniques to be used by all teams. Additional

modelling techniques are to be devised and tested. The

Review Team feels that this progress to date is satis-

factory.

b) Development and improvement of understanding of the tasks

in different systems of rice production. The employment

of an exceedingly detailed farm survey questionnaire de-

vised by FAO was adapted to the particular needs of the

project which should provide the necessary information

to satisfy this objective. These data should provide

guidelines for design of appropriate mechanization for

small rice farms.

c) Improvement of research capacity. This is perhaps the







14 -


area in which the project will have the longest and most

widely felt impact. The actual management of data col-

lection and the experience gained in data analyses should

provide a good deal of confidence for the researchers in-

volved. The results of the surveys together with programs

being produced by IRRI and other countries, will provide a

resource for the students of the subject countries for many

years to come.


V. Adequacy of Project Strategy, Resource Inputs and Implementation.

Several issues relating to the project design and strategy have been

raised as the project progressed. The first issue was raised by RAC at the

March 1978 meeting. It relates to the regional modelling proposal.

With data collected in but one or two sites in three countries can the

impacts of mechanization on production, incomes and employment be determined

only at the farm level or can some reliable aggregations be made to the vil-

lage, region or the national level? Although attention has been given to

this question the review team is of the opinion that a satisfactory answer

has not been found at this time.

The second critical issue relates to the length of the contract. The

contract was signed in late September 1977 with a termination date of late

September 1980. Nearly one year passed before the revised project proposal

was approved and the funds made available. This leaves about two years in

which to organize the research team, design and test the data instruments,

collect the data, analyze the data and publish the results. This timetable







- 15 -


is made even more difficult by the fact that data are to be collected for

two years on certain sites. To bring the project to a successful con-

clusion it is the opinion of the review team that a two year extension of

the contract will be needed.

Changes in survey sites were planned at the end of the survey year

for the Philippines and Thailand, so as to vary the survey data. However,

the two country groups have decided to continue the survey the second year

but in the same sites. In the Philippines the projected site was in a dif-

ferent dialect area, requiring a new enumerating staff. In Thailand, the

drought situation plus possible data collection weaknesses led the group to

decide to survey again at the same site. Savings in time and money plus a

correction of possible data weaknesses are a deciding factor. The review team

endorses the decision to remain at the original site.

In Indonesia, the two sites (West Java and South Sulawesi) are being sur-

veyed concurrently. Since the drought in Sulawesi can affect the cropping

pattern, the group will request a survey of the area for a second crop or year.

On Java, the country group may want to survey a second site during an ad-

ditional year. The review team supports the request for additional surveying

in Sulawesi in order to ensure adequate data collection; for a new location

in Java, formal request to AID will be needed with adequate documentation.

At the IRRI Workshop (October 1-4, 1979), plans were coordinated for

Phase IV, analysis of the data. It was mutually agreed that each country

would be responsible for a minimum amount of analysis. Such analysis will

include the design and interpretation of two-way tables as the basic level of








- 16 -


analytical work. At the intermediate level of analysis, country groups can

utilize simple comparative statistics to interpret the data. The use of the

decomposition procedure will be tried; if feasible, analysis using this tool

could begin in 1980. At a higher level, the Thai team plans to utilize a

structural model. As this model is developed, Indonesia and the Philippines

will be able to utilize the progress made by Thailand and incorporate this

type of analysis.

At a more advanced level and as noted in the research proposal, appro-

priate quantitative models are to be developed to analyze the data. It is

the recommendation of the review team for the RAC to approve the analysis

of all types other than the modelling work so as to permit continuity and an

early start on Phase IV. Since the modelling is important the review team

recommends that RAC grant IRRI an extension of one year to complete plans for

the modelling work, and possibly to pretest the model.


VI. The Budget

An accounting of the expenditures under the contract are presented in

Table 1. As of August 31, 1979, 32 percent of the project funds had been

expended or committed. Certain of the line items were being expended more

rapidly than others, such as the salary allocation. However, since there

appears to be no restrictions on moving the funds from one line item to

another, there is no serious problem here.

Director-General Brady in his letter to the team pointed out that

there had been a quantum increase in project costs (in excess of 20%)

since the budget was submitted in 1976. It was also pointed out earlier







- 17 -


in this report that unusual weather had made it desirable to extend the data

collection period on several of the sites. These events, along with the de-

lay in initiating work on the project, have budget implications.

IRRI was asked to develop and send to the Project Manager a plan of work

that would be followed if a 2 year time extension were granted with no ad-

ditional funding. A second plan of work with additional activities that

would be conducted were additional funding available was also requested.

An estimated cost for each activity should be indicated.


VII. Impact of the Loss of Pakistan from the Study

In the contract, four countries were to be included in the surveys, the

fourth country being Pakistan. However, no sub-contracting arrangement could

be found that could provide the management and staff considered necessary for

the successful completion of the country study. Consequently, that part of

the survey was deleted.

There are at least two consequences of such action. One, the contract

agreement was not carried out. This action will require a written request

to delete Pakistan from the'survey, along with supporting reasons. The

budget for three countries was estimated in the 1976 Project Paper at

$407,700, an average of $135,900 per country.

A second possible consequence is the effect of the loss of Pakistan

on the overall objectives of the study. Loss of information on any country

in Southeast Asia is regrettable. However, since agriculture in Pakistan

differs considerably from that in the other three countries, cross-country

comparisons would have been made difficult.







- 18 -


The review team recommends: (1) that the deletion of Pakistan from

the contract be accepted. Due to the extreme inflation in costs in the

remaining countries, the review team further recommends: (2) that the

funds apportioned to Pakistan be used for any cost overruns in the re-

maining three countries until the contractor can prepare a revised budget

in the next few months. In order to provide more balance to the analysis

of Southeast Asia in light of the loss of Pakistan, the review team rec-

ommends that the contractor consider initiation of a new project to include

a fourth country, preferably with similar conditions to the present three

countries, such as Burma.


VIII. The Grant to The Agricultural Development Council

Even though this review is not focused upon the activities of the Agri-

cultural Development Council (ADC) mention should be made of their related

activities.

The project proposal contains a series of case studies conducted under

the auspices of the ADC that will complement the research conducted under

the IRRI contract. Coordination is facilitated by the participation of

Dr. Hans Binswanger in the design of the IRRI proposal and by his partici-

pation in each of the workshops relating to this project.

The $100,000 plus overhead grant to the ADC was to be used to finance

case studies that examined issues or areas not covered by the IRRI study.

Grants to students for the financing of dissertation research was to be the

primary vehicle by which these case studies would be conducted.








"" Table 1


19 -
THE INTERNATIONAL YRI RESEARCH INSTITUTE
CONTRACT AI)/ta-C-1466
STATEMENT OF EXPENDITURES AND COMMITMENTS


Period covered by this projects
From: September 30, 1977 -
To: September 30, 1980


Period covered by this report
From: January 1, 1979
/To: August 31, 1979


SALARIES


CONSULTANTS


FRINGE BENEFITS


OVERHEAD


TRAVEL AND TRANSPORTATION


EQUIPMENT AND SUPPLIES


OTHER DIRECT COSTS


TOTAL


SX
09/3-/77-
12/31/78

$ 5,804.16


8,552.28


1,358.41





6,414.17


1,451.15


9,018.66


132.598.83


PENDITURES
01/01/79-
08/31/79

$23,438.26





5.485.25


2,684.93


14,914.55


5,520.80


4,396.40


$56,440.19


TOTAL
TO DATE

29, '42.42


8,552.28


6,143.66


2,684.93


21,328.72


6,971.95


13.415.06


$89,039.02


COMMITMENTS

$ 62,545.04


5,427.00


15,466.83


8,494.40


15,879.16


12,590.12





$120,402.55


TOTAL
EXPENDITURES
& COMMITMENTS

$ 91,787.46


13,979.28


22,310.49


11,179.33


37,207.88


19,562.07


13,415.06


$209,441.57


Funds released to IRRI as of August 31, 1979

Less: Expneditures as of August 31, 1979

Balance


$34,697.62

89,039.02

($54,j41.40)


Certified Correct:
E. & 0. E.



ainttino H. Shlacup
Controller


APPROVED
BUDGET

$185,000.00


37,500.00


65,300.00


37,300.00


193,500.00


87,000.00


48.000.00


$653.g 00.00


BALANCE NOT
SPENT &/OR'
COMMITTED

$ 93,212.54


23,520.72


42,989.51


26,120.67


156,292.12


67,437.93


34,584.94


L444,158.43


r








- 20 -


As of late September, 1979 about $30,000 had been obligated in support

of dissertation research. About the same amount is presently in the pro-

posal stage. The remaining funds will be used to support two or more ad-

ditional studies with a higher level of funding than the previous grants and

possibly a final seminar at which the results of individual studies will be

reviewed (see attached ADC progress report).

The ADC segment of the contract is well managed. The project manager

has shown diligence in locating research scholars and in approving projects

allied to the objective of this contract. The Review Team recommends that

the project manager continue to coordinate the choice of research topics to

support the research in this study.


IX. Summary of Evaluation

The IRRI Mechanization Project provides a large survey of farmers in 31

selected villages in three countries; the Philippines, Indonesia, and Thailand.

The villages were chosen so as to provide information on both mechanized and

non-mechanized farms in major rice-growing districts. Taken over a yearly

crop cycle, the survey will provide a rich source of information on inno-

vations in these villages, and the consequences of the innovations on the

small farmers.

The scale of the survey is very large for individual small institutions

to undertake. Consequently, IRRI sub-contracted the survey to agencies in

the respective countries, and one of the objectives of the survey was to

build in-country research expertise. This information will provide research

capital to the three countries for years.







- 21 -


A number of factors have contributed to deviations from the IRRI con-

tract to date. Scheduled to begin in September 1977, actual funding for

the project was not approved until almost a year later. Hence, the proj-

ect has had to be adjusted to a succeeding crop year cycle. A further de-

parture from the contract was that, of the four original countries to be

included in the surveys, Pakistan was dropped. Also the contract term was

three years. There is now a need for a second year of interviewing due to

drought conditions and other unforseen occurences. Then there is a need

to allow time for both the development of, and work onanalytical models,

for to cut short the analysis is to partially negate the potential results

of the study. In view of these occurrences, a major recommendation of the

Review Team was that the contractor develop a revised detailed plan of work

including planned changes in the budget. Two alternatives need to be con-

sidered: (a) a plan with a two year time extension and no additional fund-

ing, but including the funding previously allocated to Pakistan; and (b) a

plan with a two year time extension plus an estimate of the budget required

to bring the project to a successful conclusion. Concurrent Review Team

recommendations to the project manager are: (1) to request a contract modi-

fication to delete Pakistan and reallocate the funds to the remaining three

country programs; and (2) to request a two-year extension of the termi-

nation date of the project.

In program management, the Philippine project has few problems. It

was recommended that the contractor carefully monitor the data instru-

ment problems and interruptions in enumerator service in Thailand, and the







- 22 -


management of the project in Sulawesi. Careful attention should be paid to

the edit/verification process.

In communications, the contractor should file semi-annual progress re-

ports. The communication between the contractor and the sub-contractors is

informal; a careful assessment of communications should be made to see if the

informal system is adequate to ensure monitoring of progress.

The performance on the project was held to be satisfactory. Progress

has been made toward all goals, although due to the late start, the surveying

is barely underway. Originally, two survey sites were to be sampled in all

three countries. In Indonesia, surveys are underway in both sites. However,

in the Philippines and in Thailand, the teams decided to interview the one

site in each country twice, rather than to change sites. The review team

recommends this action.

A schedule of analytical work was agreed upon at the IRRI workshop in

October 1-4, 1979. The Review Team recommends mutual adoption of the levels

of analysis to be used within countries: comparative statistics and two-way

tables, decomposition analysis (if proven successful) and structural in-

country modelling (by the Thais and Indonesians). The proposal by IRRI to

use a regional model was questioned by RAC. The review team recommends that

RAC approve Phase IV (initiation of data analysis) for all levels of analysis

except the modelling by IRRI; the RAC should grant IRRI an extension of one

year to complete plans for modelling, and possible to pretest the model.

Expenditures to data (Table 1) indicate that 32 percent of the funds

have been expended (as of Aug. 31, 1979). Funds originally allocated to







- 23 -


Pakistan can offset some of the potential cost overruns of the project that

may be necessary to complete the project.

The loss of Pakistan leaves a gap in coverage of Southeast Asia. It

is the Review Team's opinion that the contractor should initiate a proposal

for a similar project in another country, such as Burma.

The Agricultural Development Council was granted $115,000 to be used

for research awards to scholars in Southeast Asia. The objective of the

research should reinforce or supplement those of this project. It was the

opinion of the Review Team that this phase was being well handled.




- Attachment 1


Names and Addresses of Workshop Participants, AID 1466, Consequences of
Small Farm Mechanization, October 1-4, 1979


BANGLADESH


1. Dr. Gerard Gill
University of Reading
52 Road 7A, Dhanmondi
Dacca 9, Bangladesh


GERMANY

1. Mr. Werner Knichel
Institute for Rural Development
University of Gcettingen
D-3400 Goettingen
Federal Republic of Germany


INDIA

1. Dr. Hans P. Binswanger
A/D/C/ Associate
ICRISAT, 1-11-256, Begumpet
Hyderabad-500 016
India


INDONESLIA

1. Dr. Richard Bernsten
Cooperative CRIA-IRRI Program
P.O. Box 107
Bogor, Indo.esia

2. Mr. Anwar Hafid
Taman Malabar 7
Bogor, Indonesia

3. Mr. Jafar Hafsah
LPPM Maros, South Sulawesi
Indonesia

4. Mr. Rusdian Lubis
Dept. of Economics
Hasanuddin University
P.O. Box 173
Ujung Pandang, Indonesia

5. Mr. Yusuf Mamum
Maros Research Agriculture
P.O. Box 173, Ujung Pandang
South Sulawesi, Indonesia


6. Mr. Josuf Saefudin
Rural Dynamic Study
Agro Economic Survey
Jl. Taman Malabar 7
P.O. Box 200
Bogor, Indonesia

7. Mr. Sarasutha
CRIA/MAROS
Lembaga Penelitian Pertanian Maros
P.O. Box 173 Ujung Pandang
Jalan Pertanian, Maros
Sulawesi, Selatan
Indonesia

8. Dr. Rudolf Sinaga
Social Economics Department
Institute Pertanian
Bogor, Jalan Raya
Pajajaran, Bogor, Indonesia

9. Mr. Masdjidin Siregar
Social Economics Department
Institute Per=anian
Bogor, Jalan Raya
Pajajaran, Bogor, Indonesia

MALAYSIA

1. Mr. A. Mahdzan Ayob
Dept. of Economics
University Pertanian Malaysia
Serdang, Selangor, Malaysia


PAKISTAN

1. Mr. Javed Gardezi
Agricultural University
Faisalabad, Pakistan


PHILIPPINES

1. Ms. Emelina Almario
Engineering Department
IRRI, Los Baios, Laguna

-2. Dr. Donato B. Antiporta
Department of Economics
College of Development
Economics and Management
U.P. Los Banos, Laguna




- 2 -


PHILIPPINES


3. Ms. Editha Casillan
Engineering Department
IRRI, Los Bafos, Laguna

4. Mr. James Chapman
Agricultural Economics Dept.
IRRI, Los Baios, Laguna

5. Mr. Bart Duff
Engineering Department
IRRI, Los Baios, Laguna

6. Dr. John C. Flinn
Agricultural Economics Dept.
IRRI, Los Bafos, Laguna

7. Ms. Fleurdeliz Juarez
Engineering Department
IRRI, Los Baios, Laguna

8. Mr. Donald 0. Kuether
Engineering Department
IRRI, Los Banos, Laguna

9. Mr. John Mchennamy
Engineering Department
- IRRI, Los Banos, Laguna

10. Mr. Virgilio Monge
Engineering Department
IRRI, Los Banos, Laguna

11.. Ms. Presentacion Moran
Engineering Department
IRRI, Los Baios, Laguna

12. Mr. Charles Moss
Engineering Department
IRRI, Los Bafos, Laguna

13. Dr. Donald Russell
Technical Team Member
Southeast Asia Cooperative
Post Harvest Research and
Development Program
U.P. College, Los Baios,
Laguna

14. Mr. Morfeo Sumiran
Engineering Department
IRRI, Los Baios, Laguna


15. Mr. Ganesh Thapa
SEngineering Department
IRRI, Los Bafos, Laguna

16. -Dr. John Wicks
Engineering Department
IRRI, Los BaIos, Laguna


SRI LANKA

1. Mr. John Farrington
Agrarian Research and Training
Institute
P.O. Box 1522, Colombo, Sri Lanka


THAILAND

1. Ms. Sanga Duangratana
Statistics Section
Planning Division
Department of Agriculture
Bangkhen, Bangkok 9, Thailand

2. Dr. Chesada Loohawenchit
Faculty of Economics
Thammasat University
Bangkok 2, Thailand

3. Dr. Dow Mongkolsmai
Faculty of Economics
Thammasat University
Bangkok 2, Thailand

4. Ms. Lavan Niyomvit
Statistics Section
Planning Division
Department of Agriculture
Bangkhen, Bangkok 9, Thailand

5. Ms. Renu Pathnopas
Faculty of Economics
Thammasat University
.Bangkok 2, Thailand

6. Dr. Varakorn Samakoses
Faculty of Economics
Thammasat University
Bangkok 2, Thailand






3




THAILAND

7. Mr. Supachat Sukharomana
Kasetsart University
Bangkok, Thailand

8. Mr. Veerasak.Surapat
Dept. of Agriculture
Bangkhen, Bangkok 9, Thailand


U.S.A.

1. Dr. Martin Billings
USAID, Ramon Magsaysay Centre
1680 Roxas Boulevard
Manil a

2. Dr. William Chancellor
Dept. of Ag. Engineering
University of California, Davis
Davis, California 95616
U.S.A.

3. Dr. Stanley Jolanson
USDA/University of California, Davis
Davis, California 95616
U.S.A.

4. Dr. Rex Rehnberg
Dept. of State Agency for
International Development
Washington, D.C. 20523
U.S.A.


October 2, 1979







Progress Report on A/D/C Mechanization Case Studies funded by USAID


The grant by USAID to the A/D/C for mechanization research
was effective in the middle of 1978. A preliminary approval had
been given already in September 1977 but the Research Advisory
Committee of USAID decided to review the proposal once more in its
spring meeting in 1978. Nevertheless in April 1978, calls for pro-
posals (copy attached) went out to the A/D/C associates and 20
scholars and institutions in Asia. On the basis of the replies to
these, Hans Binswanger travelled during the month of July to India,
Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines to discuss proposals
with potential grantees. This initial round of visits led to many
contacts but only six proposals identified in the initial rounds were
actually funded by the end of 1978 committing $16,000. Other proposals
were approved by A/D/C but could not be funded because of lack of
government approvals (Visva Bharati proposal), or have not yet mate-
rialised (NCAER, Abraham and two Indonesian proposals). Therefore it was
decided to send out a second set of calls for proposals in April 1979.
At that time the calls for proposals went to 30 scholars and insti-
tutions in addition to the A/D/C associates. There is response from
10 more people and Binswanger is following the initial contacts up
with visits to Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand and Bangladesh. The
enclosed statement summarises the research proposals and contacts
which have been established so far. A/D/C has now approved a total
of 10 proposals out of which one is still awaiting Indian Government
clearance. The budget for the approved proposals comes to $28,600
proposals with an estimated cost of $29,000 have also been strongly
encouraged and are in the process of finalization.

In what follows, a few points are made about each of the
funded or potential projects in the attached statement.

The four funded Pakistani proposals under the supervision of
Brian Lockwood are well under way. The fifth proposal by Mr. Nazeer
Hussain 'has been received about five months ago and revisions have
en-
been/couraged. Unfortunately Mr. Hussain has not yet followed up
on this correspondence.


_. I -~ n r 7









The proposal No.6 in India by Visva Bharati under the supervision
of Dr. G. C. Mandal has been approved by A/D/C. Unfortunately, the
initial investigator Mr. A. K. Hati has left the AERC at Visva Bharati
but has applied for leave from his new employer to complete the study.
On the other hand, Dr. Mandal has recommended to ask instead Mr. M. G.
Ghosh.to carry out the study. The Registrar of Visva Bharati has been
contacted to get a final decision. The status of Indian Government
clearance is not yet fully cleared. A letter from Dr. Mandal says that.
the project has been approved but the registrar has not confirmed this
information yet.

For the two proposals listed from the NCAER, initially the
contact was Dr. M. T. R. Sarma who has left the Council recently.
Under his guidance the field work for a national enquiry of machinery,
bullocks and implements, rental markets in India has been carried out
but this data is not yet analyzed, I have contacted Dr. Bhatty from
the NCAER and asked him to submit proposals. A/D/C would fund the
analysis of the data set as well as re-analysis of an earlier data set
of power tillers.

Dr. V. Abraham of Andhra University has been interested in
studying the long term impact of tractors on farm structure in
coastal Andhra Pradesh. This would be a re-survey of a sample
studied six years back by Abraham and Parthasarathy and is a very
important enquiry. Dr. Abraham continues sending letters and even
telegrams that he will submit the proposal.

The Malaysian enquiry on combine harvesters by Ahmad Mahdzan Ayob
has proceeded extremely well and the initial grant has been topped off
by a supplementary grant of 2000 dollars to finance additional data
gathering efforts which became necessary while looking at the first
results. The study is probably completed by now.

The study on multiple cropping in trans-migration areas in
Lampung in Indonesia by Rusidan Lubis should be completed by now and
Roger Montgomery has been asked to submit a final report. Also, under







his guidance Mr. Saleh was encouraged to submit a proposal on
feasibility of pumpsets in Java which whas however not yet mate-
rialised. From Indonesia we also expect a proposal from Mr. Djaswir
Zein who would investigate paddy tractors use in Sulawesi. Several
other possibilities also exist in Indonesia as indicated by William
Collier and who has organised a mini-workshop on mechanization on
the 8th and 9th of October 1979.

From Bangladesh, we have a fairly well elaborated proposal
by M. A. Jabbar on power tillers and animal power utilization in
Bangladesh and A/D/C is likely to approve it by October 15. In the
meantime, Mr. Mabubul Alam from Dacca University has also submitted
a proposal on power tillers and finally, Jasim U. Ahmad has submitted
the proposal on inter-farm use of mechanized "Aus" Rice Dryers. Carl
Pray is organizing a mini-workshop on mechanization in Bangladesh to be
held towards the end of November. At that workshop, it will be seen
whether Alam's study could be combined with a study by Dr. Jabbar or
alternatively oriented into other directions. Dr. Ahmad's proposal
should also be ready for funding at that time.

From Sri Lanka, Mr. H. A. Chandrapala and Fernando from Central
Bank of Ceylon have also submitted a proposal on tractorization. The
proposal needs major revisions. One of the potential grantees has been
invited to spend a week in Hyderabad to finalise.a proposal. Mr. P.
Wickramasekara from the Paradeniya Campus has written an exploratory
letter to get calls for proposals. Chandrapala has been encouraged
to get in touch with Wickramasekara prior to his visit to Hyderabad
to explore the potential of a collaborative effort between them.

In Thailand, Dr. Sarun Wattanucharya of the Department of
Agricultural Economics of Kasetsart University had initially submitted
four proposals of mechanization to be carried out by a group around'
him and under the guidance of Dr. Kamphol Adulavidhaya. One of the
proposals was clearly duplicating the IRRI effort and was not en-
couraged. A second proposal also appeared to be marginal and instead
Sarun ha, now submitted two well focused proposals, the firston the










development of farm machinery in Thailand with particular emphasis
on the history of the designs which they are now producing. It
is doubtful that any such enquiry being done previously. The second
enquiry is on the role of tractor contractors in farm mechanization
in Thailand and follows up on Dr. William Chancellor's work of nearly
eight years ago. Binswanger will visit Thailand in November for
intensive discussion on survey instruments with Sarun.

Finally, under the guidance of Bart Duff, a Nepali student
of the University of the Philippines at Las Banos has prepared
an excellent proposal on the economics of pump irrigation of eastern
Nepal which has been approved and funded by the A/D/C in September 1979.

It has now become clear that it will not be possible within
the period of three years of the USAID contract to fund more than,
say 15 to 20 proposals. Since some of the proposals have been quite
small and some of the expected ones will be in the same category,
this leaves room for at least one or two fairly substantial efforts
each with a total funding of something like 15,000 dollars. There
is a good opportunity for getting a power tiller study for Sri Lanka
along somewhat more modest lines than the IRRI efforts. A similar
opportunity exists for Bangladesh, both countries within which IRRI
is not working on this issue but whert the issue is important for
the national economists. Unless USAID or IRRI have objections in
this course of action, Binswanger will move strongly in that direction.








Hyderabad,
September 27, 1979


HPB:nvnc





I ;l -ig


Country Investigator


Advisors


Project Title


Current
staLus


Date. of
initia-
tion


Dlegi c A/D/C Grint
Budget level nun'i:,


----------------------------------------- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
1. 2. 3. 4. S. 6. 7. 8. 9.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
5


1. Pakistan Mr. Kuaja Altaf
M. Sc. candidate



2. Pakistan Mr. lMuhammad
Munir, M. Sc.
candidate

3. Pakistan Mr. Javed Gardezi
M.Sc. candidate



4. Pakistan Mr. Ilussain
Cardezi, M.Sc.
candidate


Di gri;; Lockuwoo,
, Mr. Qanmar ',uhy-
ud- dyn
P.OA. ox 109
University of
Agri culture
Pais;' tabaid
Paikistan


5. Pakistan Mr. Nazeer Ilussain


6. India


Mr.Asokc Kumar
Ilati/MadanI Gopal
Ghosh, AERC,
Vis.;va Charaiti
Santiniketan
West Bengal
731 235


Dr. G.C. Mandial


:apa;icity of Workshops and Farms
to mUlntaii Agricultural Machi-
nory, F.iisal.bad


1:arimu'rs decision ma ing recar-
ding investment in farm
'.!:lchiinery, Fali salad ibad

Iv:lluoation of Eflfect of Mecha-
nic;l '!lhreshers on Farm Enm-
p)loymo'.nt, .iult:n


Soc .oecoinoii.c inrves:ti nation
inLo custom leasing ,of agri-
cult rural machines, Pakistan


'ilc pl)ttcrn of marketing of
f'arim inchinery in Faisalabad



'lhe iimpctr 0o1' agricultural
Inlhanii Zali i ion on fai' :: structure
;and Oirm mIIInIIgmI.nt Sahabad
diJtrOLt, Bihar. This is a
resurvey of the Man.dal. aind
Pr:! Studly, 1972


Held
work
comply -;ed

I


I
Oct.1,
Field work 1978
in Apr. '79


Fir t proposal
rcccived and
revision en-
couraged

Proposal
approved by
A/D/C, Indian
novxr'nwrnr
approval
rmluta.SLd


7,000.00 4 M.Sc.
thesis


2, O0.00


As soon 3,100.00
as GOL .00
approval
is re-
ceived


78.-101-01)


rPh.D.
thesi-


7" -1 1 -0( 1

















7. India National Council
of Applied Econ.
Research (NCAER)
Indraprastha Estate
New Delhi


8. India


9. India Dr. V. Abraham
Dept. of Coopera-
tion and Applied
Economics, Andhra
University,
Waltair,AP 530 003


Machinery and Bullock Rental
markets in India : A special
schedule was collected along
with a national sample of
rice cultivators.


The impact of power tillers :
Area analysis of the NCAER
survey of 1974-75


The long term impact of
tractors on farm structure
in coastal Andhra Pradesh


Field work
completed.
NCAER will
have to
submit a
proposal to
Finance a
year of
leave for one
of their staff
member to write
a Ph. Disser-
tation.


NCAER has agreed
to submit pro-
posal to release
a staff member
for the re-
analysis

Abraham has
agreed to
submit a proposal


(4000.00)


Ph.D. thesis


(2000.00)


(6000.00) Post-doctoral
award


--.- -------- 2: --------------3--------------.---4------------ I ........... -.........- ..............-- .._........?. 1 ..._..
















1. '. 3. 4. 5. 6.... 7 8. 9.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .


Mr.Ahmnad ltl.hdzan Dr. Donald
Ayebt, luivi rsity Taylor
PeT tatian Mu:laysia
Faiculti Etkunomi
ijiumbe) r I)'rn Pernia
g:antan i ,.Srdang,
Slang; ior
Mt l;y;ia


II. Indone- i'. lHu;jd l bii is
sia Smiipuir Ka:ler 51
Fol:or, Indonesia


Dr. Roger
Montgomery
c/o CIMMYI
N. De lhl


" Mr.Chaer:l Saleh
II'R. Hogor
Indones ia


Adoption, Impact, Costs and
Benefits of the Combine
Ilar:v'cter in the thuds Irri-
gation I'Pn ect,4;alaysia


To determine the feasibility
of experimental multiple
cropping in transmlgration
area of Central Lampung.
Looks at potential labor
bottlenecks using ,IP models


" Feasibility of pumpsets
in Java


Second phase
of field work
an. its analy-
sis completed.
Third phase
field work in
April 1979.


Was a thesis
in progress
for which AD)C
added addi-
tiona;l compu-
ted funds.


Proposal still
expected.


October 29,
1978


November 1,
1978


3500.0(0
supplemen-
tary request
of 1866.00


1000.00


(150.000)


Di.-;wir 7ein
I'cndidlik1a Pasca;
;,i rj ana, Faicllt as
l:conomi, Ur i ver-
sit;';, G(adjha Mada
Bi I;ksumnr
Y ;gy;llkaL rt;
.indonesi a


llhe factors affecting
cropping intensity on
farms and employment
patterns of hired labor
and their influence on
use of paddy tractors
in West Sumatera,
Indonesia


Proposal (5000.00)
expected


14. Bangla- Dr.M.A.Jahbar
desh Bangli;desh Agri.
Universe ty,
liytiwlnsingh'l


Carl Pray Power tillers and animal
power utilization in
Bangladesh


Final proposal
received.App-
roval expected


Jan.1980 $4000.00


10. Malaysia


Ph D..
thIesis


M.Sc.
thesis


78-101-02


78-101-03


M.Sc.
thesis


Post-
doctoral














4


1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8.9.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -


1:. Bangladesh


Mr. Mlalbul Alam
Dept.of Economics
Dacca University
Dacca-2,B.Desh


" I)r.Jasim U.Ahmad
Agri.Varsity
Campus,A-4/2,
Bangladesh Agri.
Uni versity,
hymngi:ingh,,
BanIgladesh


Carl Pray Impact of power tillers
on productivity and
employment and income
distribution.


SInter-farm use of
Mechanized Aus Rice
Dryers and their
S Benefit cost rela-
tions.


First draft of
proposal recei-
ved. ADC could
o:.:y fund a
portion of it.
Smaller reoriented
Ir.'posal expected.
First draft pio-
posal received
and returned with
encouraging com-
ments


(15,000.00)


March 1,
1980


M. Phil.
may be for
a thesis.


(2,500.00) Post-
*doctoral


17. Sri Lanka


P.Wickramasekara
Lecturer, Dept.of
EIcon.,llty.of Ceylon
Parad.-niya Caimpus
Paradt-ni, a,Sri Lanka


? Mechanization in
Sri Lanka with
reference to labor
issues


" II.A.Chandrapal a
G. Fe rnanido,
Centiil Bank of
Ceylon, Colollio,
Sri L.nka;


19. Thailand


Sarnu Wattanut-
chariya, Lecturer
Dept.of Agric.Econ.
Kasetsart Uty.
Bal!giko:k,lha i.1 and


N.E.H.
Sanderatne
G.M.Abey
ratno
tentativee)


Kamphol
Adula-
vidhaya.


Tractorization of
paddy farming in
Sri Lanka with spl.
reference to Kurunegala
and Anuradhapura dist.

a.The Development of
Fanrn machinery Industry
in Thailand;Adaptations
in response to change
in farmers' needs and
in economic conditions
b. IThe role of tractor
contractors in farm


Proposal received.
Requires major
revision


Funded


Sept. '79


$5000.00 M.Sc.
requested Ag.econ.


7,000.00 Post-doctoral
+ 2 graduate
students.


mechanization in Thailand


Exploratory




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