Citation
The adoption of new bread wheat technology in selected regions of Turkey

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Title:
The adoption of new bread wheat technology in selected regions of Turkey
Creator:
Demir, Nazmi
International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center
Place of Publication:
Mexico, D. F.
Publisher:
Centro Internacional de Mejoramiento de Maíz y Trigo
Publication Date:
Language:
English
Physical Description:
vi, 27 p. : ill. ;

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Subjects / Keywords:
Wheat -- Turkey ( nal )
Genre:
bibliography ( marcgt )
international intergovernmental publication ( marcgt )
non-fiction ( marcgt )
Spatial Coverage:
Turkey

Notes

Bibliography:
Includes bibliographical references.
Statement of Responsibility:
Nazmi Demir; edited and abridged by CIMMYT.

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THE ADOPTION OF NEW BREAD WHEAT TECHNOLOGY IN SELECTED REGIONS OF TURKEY
Edited and abridged by CIMMYT
Nazmi Demir
CENTRO INTERNACIONAL DE MEJORAMIENTO DE MAIZ Y TRIGO 1976 International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center, Apartado Postal 6-641, Mexico 6, D.F. Mexico




Correct citation: Demir, Nazmi. 1976. The adoption of new bread wheat technology in selected regions of Turkey--Edited and abridged by CIMMYT. Centro Internacional de Mejoramiento de Mafz V Trigo. Mexico City. vi + 27 p.




CONTENTS
Foreword v
1. Setting the scene in Turkey 1
Sources of production 1
Coastal spring wheat programs 2 Review of subsequent chapters 3
11. Farm and farmer characteristics in the regions studied 3
Sampling strategy 5
Regional characteristics from survey data 7
Ill. Farmer incentives for adoption of recommendations 8
Measures of profitability of recommended procedures 8
Measures of risks of recommended procedures 10
Summary 11
1 V. Adoption and characteristics of the farm, farmer, and government programs 12
HYV's and individual variables 12
Fertilizer and individual varieties 16 Other elements of the technology 18
V. Multivariate analysis of factors affecting adoption 19
Factors affecting adoption of HYV's 20
Factors affecting application of fertilizers 23
IV. Summary of findings and policy implications of the study 25
Findings 25
Policy implications 26







FOREWORD:ON LAUNCHING THE STUDIES AND MOTIVATING HYPOTHESES
Launching the Studies To the extent possible, each of the adoption studies was
under the supervision of an indigenous economist. In only
The study described in the following chapters is one of one case was it necessary to turn to an expatriate and a series aimed at enlarging understanding of the factors there we had the good fortune to collaborate with a reimpinging on the adoption of new maize and wheat searcher with several years experience in the area. Each technology. Better understanding of the elements shaping of the collaborators shared CIMMYT's concern for farmer the diffusion of new cereals technology can help govern- response to new technology. ments and development assistance agencies to increase Beyond sharing this concern, each collaborator had an
farmer income, hence the interest in the topic. Interest interest in farm level research done in close cooperation increased as controversy about effects of introducing new with agricultural scientists. The importance of this interest technologies attracted widespread attention to the theme. emerges from our conviction that agricultural scientists who
CIMMYT, with its mandate defining its role in the are knowledgeable about a particular maize or wheat area
development and diffusion of maize and wheat technology, can contribute substantively to research on the cereals quickly assumed a participant's role in the discussions. The economy of that area. Their special knowledge about the concern and the interest emanating from the critical im- interaction between plants and their environments is importance of the theme stimulated CIMMYT to look for a portant in identifying agro-climatic zones, critical periods
modus operandi through which patterns of adoption and for the crop, and activities which are essential to effective
the forces shaping those patterns could be identified. cultivation. Many agricultural scientists played a prominent Better understanding of these relationships would influence role in these studies;; each warrants our gratitude for his dMMYT efforts to develop new technology, the orientation contribution. of its training program, and the approach taken in counsel- As the studies were completed it became apparent that ing governments about national programs. much could ba said for publishing them in a standard
In order to better comprehend what influences farmer format. With several serving as Ph.D. dissertations and response to new technology, CIMMYT set out to facilitate others as less formal research pieces, a common format the research on which this and the other studies of the could only be achieved through reworking the original series are based. We decided to examine eight cases in monographs. In every case but one, then, CIMMYT's which maize or wheat technology had been introduced to publication is an abridgement of a longer piece. The farmers. In identifying programs for study, we limited Indian study, itself a review of the findings of several other consideration to those in which the technology had been research efforts, is being published in its entirely with no available to farmers for no less than five years and in effort to recast it in the form of the others. which no less than 100,000 hectares of land might have In making the abridgement we have followed certain
been affected. Eight programs were selected for study. For norms. Mathematical proofs have been eliminated, literamaize the focus was on Colombia, El Salvador, Kenya west ture reviews have been included only where they relate to of Rift Valley, and Mexico's Plan Puebla. For wheat, points which are unique to a given study, and the discussion
programs in India, Iran, Tunisia and Turkey were consider- of the hypotheses motivating the studies have been dropped. ed. GIMMYT's maize and wheat staff participated in the This last decision arises from recognition of the substantial selection, of these programs. With their knowledge of commonality of these hypotheses among the studies. This programs around the world it was possible to choose a suggested that, rather than presenting essentially the same
varied set of experiences--e.g. programs with and without discussion in the text of each abridgement, the hypotheses irrigation, wvth and without effective price guarantees, could be treated once in an abbreviated form for all studies. with massive extension effort and with virtually none. That treatment follows below.




The Hypotheses analysis the effects of variables subject to their control are
more clearly discerned. Knowledge of how these variables,
While each of the studies examines a somewhat different e.g. agro-climatic zones and extension programs, relate to set of circumstances, all depart from the same general adoption can be of critical importance in affecting the
assumption about farmer behavior. The assumption is development and diffusion of new technology.
that farmers are income-seeking risk averters who are With this rough sketch of the general argument, readers
sensitive to the nuances of the environment in which they wanting more detail about the derivation of the hypothefarm and that they are generally effective in their decision sized relationships can turn to the relevant original piece making. For the six studies based on original survey data from which this series of abridgements was drawn. In and to a more limited extent for the study of Plan Puebla, all cases the studies feature the effects of agro-climatic this common point of departure leads to a great deal of region and farm size on adoption of elements of new
similarity in the motivating hypotheses. technology. This emphasis is related to the earlier controGiven a farmer oriented by the assumptions described versy about the effects of new technology where these two
above, we might expect to see relationship between the factors played prominent roles.
adoption of elements of the new technology and 1) char- Before moving to the abridgement, some attention to
acteristics of the farmer-his age, education, family size, the phrase "elements of the new technology" is warranted. farming experience, off-farm work, percentage of land own- Much has been made of the concept of a package of practied, 2) characteristics of the farm-its agro-climatic region, ces in the introduction of new technology. We've chosen competition of industrial crops, relative importance of to look at this a bit differently, taking the view that the
cereals, nearness to markets, farm size, 3) characteristics of differences in risk, expected income, and cost of each government programs-access to credit, access to informa- element of the technology are large enough to outweigh tion (though extension agent visits or visits to demonstra- the effects of the interaction among these elements. That tion plots), is to say, perceptive and prudent decision makers might
Some of the relationships between these variables and well choose to take up only a part of the package rather
the adoption of elements of the new technology are more than the entire package. For the programs studied, the
arguable, some less. Least arguable are hypotheses relating two dominant elements in the package are improved seed adoption to education, farming experiences, percentage of and fertilizer. These two were analyzed as dependent varland owned, more favored climatic regions, relative import- tables in each of the studies. Of lesser importance are ance of cereals, nearness to markets, farm size, access to such elements as seed treatment, date of planting, method credit, and access to information. With other things equal of planting, use of herbicides, use of pesticides, planting and accepting our assumptions that farmers are income- density, and seed bed preparation. Nevertheless, where
seeking, risk-averting, sensitive, and effective maximizers, any of these was recommended and where data are adequate, virtually no one would argue that any one of these relation- these are also treated as dependent variables. ships should be negative. While CIMMYT has been associated with these studies
Somewhat more arguable is the relation of age and family since their inception, the opinions expressed by the authors size to adoption. Even here it is likely that only a few are not necessarily endorsed by CIMMYT. would argue that these relationships might be positive.
Most arguable are the relationships linking adoption to What follows off-farm work and competition of industrial crops. With
respect to the former, some hold that the relationship is This report summarizes results of a study of wheat
positive as more off-farm work implies more income, there- technology in Turkey's coastal areas. The study is based on fore a greater capacity to bear risk, hence a greater willing- a survey of over 800 wheat farmers conducted in early ness to adopt new technologies. Others hold the converse, 1973. That survey was a part of a larger effort under the arguing that more off-farm work implies less interest in the direction of Dr. Resat Aktan and supported by Turkey's farm, hence less willingness to put in the time and energy Ministry of Agriculture, the State Institute of Statistics associated with taking on new technologies. So too for and CIMMYT. Dr. Aktan is now examining the entire
industrial commodities, where those who see the relation- survey, emphasizing the two winter wheat areas excluded ship as positive allude to greater experience with improved from this report where few farmers had taken up new inputs and larger incomes while the contrary view rests on varieties. capital restrictions and the high opportunity cost of labor. The study on which this abridgement is based was With knowledge of the relationships among these var- undertaken by Dr. Nazmi Demir while a visiting scientist
ables, researchers and policy makers can better develop and at CIMMYT. diffuse new technologies. Some of the variables considered, Don Winkelmann
e.g. age and family size, are beyond the control of these
decision makers. Nonetheless, by incorporating them in the El Bat~n
Vi




1. SETTING THE SCENE IN TURKEY
Turkey's marked dependence on wheat is evidenced in that both in terms of area and in terms of production, is the
crop's role in national consumption and in production. On winter wheat region of the Southeast, the Anatolian the consumption side, the country's 38 million people have Plateau, and Thrace. These regions account for about 60 an average annual consumption of 3orne 200 kilos per person percent of the total production on somewhat more than a year, among the highest in the world. Wheat supplies 60 percent of the wheat area exclusive of fallow. Nearly
roughly 50 percent of the calories and a bit over 50 per- three fourths of the fallow lies in the South East and the cent of the protein in the diet of the average Turkish Anatolian Plateau.
consumer. There is little opportunity to expand production through
On the production side, 8.6 million hectares of land expansion in area. In fact it is the hope of the government
were devoted to wheat in 1972. When the land in fallow- that area in the Anatolian Plateau can be reduced by 500,000
another 8.6 million hectares-is added to this, the wheat hectares, with all of this returned to pasture.
industry accounts for some 70 percent of the country's Yields of winter wheat in Turkey are generally low, on
tillable l3nd. Wheat's vital contribution to Turkish agri- the order of 1.0 to 1.2 tons per hectare. Yields are also culture is evident. Given that agriculture employs roughly characterized by substantial year-to-year variations because two thirds of the population, accounts for about a third of the substantial variation in weather. There is little
of GNP, and supplies nearly nine tenths of the country's opportunity for irrigation.
e exports, wheat's overall importance to the Turkish economy One knowledgeable official emphasizes the need for new
is also evident. varieties adapted to the wheat-fallow rotation, varieties
With this notable reliance on wheat, the Turkish govern- which feature efficient use of available moisture. In adment has long sought to stimulate production. Its first dition these varieties must be responsive to such inputs as
goal, only occasionally achieved and then only in good fertilizer. New varieties now available tend to respond well
years, is to make the country self sufficient in the basic to inputs but lack yield stability, e.g. Bezostaya under product. Area, yields, and year-to-year fluctuations combine adverse conditions. The land-race varieties, on the other with consumption to make Turkey an importer in all but hand, are quite stable but are also quite unresponsive to
the best years. These imports range up to 8 percent of an- intensive management practices. nual use. Until recently winter wheats were widely grown under
When considered in the context of a growing popula- traditional practices. Over the last decade technological
tion and increasing incomes, the attainment of self suf- change, in the form of tractors, combines, herbicides and
ficiency is seen to he difficult. Population is growing at fertilizer, has entered the production scene. New varieties the rate of 2.6 percent per year. Annual per capita income have been developed but are not yet widely diffused except is increasing at a rate of over 2.5 percent per year. Even in Thrace, an area which will be considered in detail later. assuming a relatively small relationship between changes in Tillage practices for managing fallow and wheat are being income and changes in consumption it is clear that produc- developed and promising results are being promoted in a tion must increase at a more than 3 percent per year. new production project covering 20 provinces in the winter
Closing the gap now filled with imports implies an even wheat region. It is still too early to see the impact of these
greater annual increase in annual production. Contrast efforts to stimulate production. Even so, it is clear that
this target, however, with the experience of the 15 years, production increases in the winter wheat area will encounter 1958 to 1972, when area increased little and yields increased significant hurdles. by a bit less than 2 percent per year. All of this implies that no easy solutions are at hand for
stimulating rapid increases in wheat production in the major
part of the winter wheat producing regions.
Sources of Production Looking now at the spring wheat areas, these are found
along Turkey's Aegean and Mediterranean coasts. This
The bulk of Turkey's wheat production is now carried on zone is characterized by mild winter temperatures and good
in two quite distinct environments. The largest contributor, rainfall, ranging from 500 to 800 millimeters per year.
I




Some 15 to 20 percent of the country's wheat area and vernment assigned 250 extension workers to work full
on the order of 25 to 30 percent of the production are time for the new program. These agents were informed found in these coastal regions, through short seminars, informal meetings, and printed
With their emphasis onl spring bread wheat, the coastal materials of the essential pronts regarding the new vanle regions were the natural recipients of new varieties develop- ties and were instructed to promote the complete package ed in Mexico and Italy. At about the same time the farmers to area farmers. The package included preparation ot an of Thrace, with access to higher and more stable rainfall appropriate seed bed, seeding technique and timeliness of than the farmers of Anatolia or the Southeast, took up the seeding, seed treatment, adequate fertilizer applications, improved Russian variety Bezostaya. and weed control. All avenues for diffusing information
In the late 1960's these areas, grouped into four regions bulletins were produced and distributed, many of them are for purposes of the Ministry of Agriculture-Th race, South still in print. These indicate expected yield levels between Marmara, Aegean, and Mediterranean regions-became the 4 and 6 tons per hectare under recommended practices
focal point for government efforts to stimulate wheat pro- and with average weather conditions. duction. Starting in 1967 in the spring wheat regions of During the first years, with little information yet availSouth Marmara, Aegean and Mediterranean, efforts were able from research in Turkey, it was necessary to estimate
intense as the government concentrated on the introduction planting dates and fertilizer recommendations on the basis of new varieties, fertilizers, herbicides, seed treatment, of experience from other similar environments. These increased seed production; and launched an extension pro- experiences were buttressed by data from an extensive gram aimed at growers. The intent of the government was FAQ program. This program was started in 1961 and to attain sharp increases in production through yield in- ultimately was responsible for thousands of demonstration creases achieved by changing varieties and practices. plots throughout the country. In time, as Turkish research
institutions had the opportunity to focus on the problems
of HYV production, a full set of locally-produced recoinCoastal Spring Wheat Programs mendations became available.
The Turkish recommendations featured variety and fertilThe program in the spring wheat area was initiated in 1966 izer but included: preparation of a good seed bed; use with the importation of some 60 tons of seed of the Mex- of drills for seeding and fertilizer application; applicaican variety Sonora. This seed was divided among 100 tion of phosphatic fertilizer at seeding time and of nitrogen
farmers and grown by them with the counsel of the Ministry in three applications; a seeding density of 80 kilos per of Agriculture. Yields of 4 tons per hectare were obtain- hectare; seeding during the period mid-November to ed, a marked increase over the 1.5 tons from the local tall late December; weed control when needed; irrigation varieties. Encouraged by these results Qovernment decided when needed if available. Seed treatment was also a part of to import large quantities of seeds from Mexico, the U.S. the recommended package as smut (Ustilago tritici), bunt and Russia. In 1967, 22,000 tons of HYV seeds were and rots can be a problem for Turkish farmers. It was soon
imported and distributed. Most of this was in the Mexican discovered, however, that P6njamo is highly resistant to varieties Penjamo, Lerma Rojo, and Super X with some smut, reducing the need for seed treatment to protection
500 tons of Burt and Brevor from the U.S. and of Bezosta- against bunts and rots. ya from Russia. For Turkish farmers market risks and uncertainties are
About 60,000 farmers with 170,000 hectares of land minimized by a price support program of wheat. This
took part in the 1967 program. P~njamo showed itself program is managed by TMO (Toprak Mahsulleri Ofisi)
quite well adapted to the Turkish scene and became the under the direction of the Council of Ministers. Each dominant variety among the imports. By 1969, it was year, before the harvest, the Council of Ministers announces
estimated that over 600,000 hectares were sown to the new prices for each type of wheat (and for some other cereals as improved wheats. well). Farmers can supply an unlimited amount of wheat
The Ministry of Agriculture relied heavily on its exten- to TMO at the announced price. The agency has storage sion staff for diseminating information of the new wheat space for about 20 percent of the normal crop and maintains technology. Extension services are essentially in the hands more than 300 procurement stations scattered throughout of General Directorate of Agriculture, with headquarters the wheat producing regions. TMO is also responsible to in Ankara. The General Directorate has technical agri- provide the infrastructure and the funds necessary to absorb culture directors located in each of the country's 67 pro- large increases in production, the sort of thing that might vinces together with experts and supporting staff in various occur from a marked change in technology or from particubranches of agriculture, larly favorable weather. This hasn't been necessary in the
When the campaign was launched in 1967, few farmers or recent past, however, as local demand continues to outrun extension agents were familiar with the new varieties or the production. It should also be noted that an active private complementary agronomic practices. At the outset, Go- market parallels TMO as local traders, wholesalers, millers,
2




and speculators compete for annual production. spring wheats and by 1972 the estimated area was over
Farmers also had access to seeds through Government- 900,000 hectares. managed seed production farm-rs. Certified seed is produced on large state-owned farms or under contract by
private growers. The seed is then shipped to supply points Review of Subsequent Chapters for purchase by farmers. Seed is priced at 125 percent of the
TMO guaranteed price of wheat. It can be bought on credit This is a dramatic shift to new varieties, from virtually but only 75 percent of thesjialue of the seed can be loaned nothing in 1966 to over 50 percent of the spring bread to the farmer. This credit system has suffered from serious wheat area 7 years later- Still, it was clear that some difficulties in the recent past. Witness the year 1969 when areas remained with the old varieties or with the old loans by the agricultural banks for commercial seed retail- practices. The intent of this study, launched in early ing were 340 million Turkish lira of which 62 million was 1973 and based on data from the 1971-72 crop year, was in default, 100 million was overdue and only 178 million to see to what extent a pattern of adoption emerged. were current. One consequence of this was that credit for The goals of the study, a description of the study regions, seed was notably reduced in the early 1970's and this was the sample, and the data are discussed in Chapter 11. Chapter accompanied by a dramatic decline in the sale of seed, Ill presents survey data pertaining to the average prof itabilifrom a high of over 250,000 tons to a low of under ty of new varieties and fertilizers, and the risks associated
50,000 tons in 1972. with these new inputs. The following two chapters discuss
From 1967 on, the Turkish farmers in the coastal areas the relationships between adoption of varieties and fertilizer had access to HYV's, to some credit, to an active extension in one hand and fairm characteristics, farmer characteristics, program, to a package of recommendations, and to an and government programs on the other. Conclusion and
active, guaranteed market for Their product. By 1969 descriptions of new research are the topics of the final HYV's were estimated to be on over 600,000 hectares for chapter.
1I. FARM AND FARMER CHARACTERISTICS IN THE REGIONS STUDIEDThe study of adoption of the elements of new wheat The Regions Studied
technology by Turkish farmers focused on three spring
wheat regions and one winter wheat producing region. For identification, the three spring wheat regions are called
The country's remaining winter wheat producing regions Mediterranean (Region 1), Aegean (Region 2), and South are not considered because it was known that few farmers Marmara (Region 3) while the winter wheat reini had adopted new varieties by 1972. Thrace (Region 4). The regions and the provinces sampled
Before considering the regions it is convenient to in- within each are shown in the Map. These regions and retroduce some terms describing wheat varieties. I n what presentative provinces were identified with the assistance follows HYV's are short-stemnmed varieties introduced to of agricultural scientists familiar with Turkish wheat proTurkey from Mexico, from Italy, and from Russia. The duction practices. Regions were defined so that within each
major Mexican variety was Penjamo. Italian varieties were region conditions for wheat production would be essentially Conte-Marzotta, Mara, and Libellula, and the principal homogeneous, except that hillsides and flat lands within a Russian variety was Bezostaya. "Other" varieties includes region were assumed to have different characteristics. The all other varieties, consisting primarily of improved and analysis. then, recognizes two zones within each of the three local Turkish wheats. spring wheat areas. Only one zone is recognized within the
3




winter wheat region, as Thrace is characterized by rolling regions studied. While this restricts generalization of the land. data to the eastern part of the region, that part does
Looking now at the regions, the Mediterranean Region account for the bulk of the region's area and production. has an annual average precipitation of 934 mm with the The Aegean Region has an annual average precipitation monthly distribution over the 5 years, 1967 to 1971, as of 670 mm. The monthly distribution for the 5 years, shown in Figure 1.The average elevation is 20 meters. Wheat 1967 to 1972, is as shown in Figure 1. The wheat season is planted in November and harvested in May. Wheat makes extends normally from the beginning of December to the up some 30 to 60 percent of the average farmers' crop middle of June. Somewhat less than 50 percent of the mixture. Because HYV's can be harvested in May a second wheat is produced in the Region's main valleys and the crop often follows wheat. While the area has a well develop- rest on the adjacent sloping lands and foothills, at elevaed irrigation system, wheat is rarely irrigated as rainfall is tions ranging from 20 to 500 meters. The higher elevausually quite adequate. Spring frosts rarely occur and tions are subject to spring frosts. While the local wheats, there is little damage attributable to hail or to wind. The which mature late, are rarely influenced, frost can damage region accounts for roughly 10 percent of Turkey's wheat the earlier maturing spring HYV's. In the valleys wheat area and some 13 percent of the total production. The is usually grown in rotations with cotton and pulses while provinces chosen for sampling are less representative of on the hillsides tobacco and wheat are featured. Wheat the entire region than is the case for the other three is harvested in late May and early June. As in the MediBLACK SEA
THRACE
TI' MEDMEARMAEA
MEDITERRANEANNSEA
.............. Counties surveyed
The Thrace, South Marmara, Aegean, and Mediterranean regions of Turkey and the surveyed counties within each region.
4




terranean Region, irrigation is available but little is placti- dlea. Annual avviiigqe pi ':ilpitalion i; 590 millimelwis, disim ced on wheat. The region accounts for some 7 percent buted as shown in Figure 1 (data from 1967 to 19/1).
of the wheat area ano 9 percent of total production. Wheat is the dominant crop with sunflower following in
South Marmara Region averages 680 milimeters of rain- importance. Thrace has nearly 6 percent of the country's fall annually and elevations of cultivated lands range up to wheat area and contributes a bit over 7 percent to total 250 meters. Average monthly distribution of rainfall for production. the period 1967 to 1971 is given in Figure 1. Major field crops in addition to wheat are sugar-beets, tobacco, pulses, sunflower, and potatoes. Wheat is harvested in July, 20 to Sampling Strategy 30 days later than in the Aegean Region. South Marmara has 4.5 percent of Turkey's wheat area and 3 percent its After identifying essentially representative privinces from production. each region, counties were selected at random from each
Unlike the coastal regions, Thrace is a winter wheat province. Within each county villages were stratified in
160 MEDITERRANEAN AEGEAN
120
80
40
01
0 1 i I I I I I I I I I I I I i I i I I I i I I
SOUTH MARMARA THRACE
120
80
40
0 1 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I
SONDJFMAMJJA SONDJFMAMJJA
MONTH MONTH
Fig. 1. Average monthly millimeters of precipitation by region (1967-71).
5




Table 1. Characteristics of sampled wheat farmers by region.
Mediterranean Aegean S. Marmara Thrace
Age 52 49 47 56
Family size 7.8 6.2 5.5 6.0
Education a 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.3
Days working off-farm/year 13.5 13.5 9.9 12.5
Plowing with tractors, % 94 45 38 82
No. agr. radio programs/month 6 3 5 7
Participating field days, etc. b % 51 10 39 38
Membership in agric. society, C % 81 55 79 96
Selling wheat, % 82 33 25 79
a! Range: 1-7 (1 = no education 7 college education. b/ Field days, lectures, and demonstrations. c/ Membership in any of several agricultural societies ranging from co-ops, 4-H clubs, etc.
Table 2. Characteristics of farms of sampled bread wheat farmers.
Bread wheat Distance
Size Land in Plots Plots on from home Region (ha) (% (no.) hillside %) to fields (km)
Mediterranean 14.6 67 1.9 67 2.6
Aegean 5.8 46 1.6 75 2.3
South Marmara 7.0 48 77 1.8
Thrace 15.2 48 96 2.3
a/Virtually all durum farmers eliminated and those durum plots included are not considered as part of bread wheats.
Table 3. Percent of fields and percent of area devoted to various varieties on sampled bread wheat farms, by region.
Mediterranean Aegean S. Marmara Thrace
Fields Area Fields Area Fields Area Fields Area Bezostaya 5.7 2.4 7.1 20.7 76.0 78.7
Italian a 1.8 1.5 11.4 10.3
Mexican b 93.1 95.4 23.0 32.7 7.9 8.6
HYV's 94.9 96.9 28.7 35.1 26.4 39.6 76.0 78.7 Other C 5.1 3.1 71.3 64.9 73.6 60.4 24.0 27.3
a/Conte x Marzotta, Mara, and Libellula. bi Penjamo, Lerma Rojo 64, Super X, Sonora 64 with Penjamo by far the most prominent variety. c/ Other includes land race varieties and pre-dwarfs improved varieties, largely Turkish. Local improved accout for about one-fourth of other in Aegean and nearly one-third of other in South Marmara.
6




ters of topography, weighted in ler ms of wheat area, and f-,ble 4. Distribution of sampled farmers by average two sets of villages wele selected at random. Roughly 30 quantities of plant nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorus) villages frnom each region were selected in this manneil applied to bread wheat in 1971-72 production.'l Within selected villages, farmer households were stratified
into three groups according to farm size and then farmer Mediterranean Aegean S. MlIrnara I hrac :
households were selected at random. Roughly 200 house- (kg/ha) 1(%) (1%) (%)
holds were interviewed from each region. Some of those 0-30 6 54 38 6
farmers interviewed were subsequently eliminated because 31-60 7 26 20 14
they concentrate on durum wheats. If durum occupied 61-90 12 14 23 29
91-120 17 4 16 21
over half of the farmers' wheat area he was eliminated 121 20 2 3 1
121-150 20 2 3 14
from the sample. No HYV durums were available to 151-180 19 11
Turkish farmers in 1971. This left a sample size of 200 over 180 19 1 1 5
farmers in Mediterranean Region, 154 in Aegean, 177 in Total 100 100 100 100
South Marmara, and 178 in Thrace. In most cases, farmers Mean 1kg/ha) 131 34 50 99
who reported some durums had all of their wheat land in
drums, a/ Recommended levels are: for HYV's, 160-200 kg/ha; forothers,
durums.120-140 kg/ha.
Dr. Resat Aktan figures prominently in all of the early
stages of this study, from planning its scope, to formulating hypotheses, to preparation of the questionnaire, and
to administering the survey. Survey administration was
completely in Dr. Aktan's hands. Ennumerators were provided by the Ministry of Agriculture, largely from its
extension staff. Turkey's State Institute of Statistics also
provided counsel on statistical techniques and accomplished well below Mediterranean and Thrace in percentage of farmthe task of transfering the data to punch cards. It should ers selling wheat. also be mentioned that, while none of the data are reported Average farm size for sampled farmers is a good bit here, some 500 farmers of Anatolia Region and Southeastern smaller in Aegean and South Marmara while percentage in Region were interviewed. Those data are now under wheat is far larger in Mediterranean. South Marmara farmanalysis, with the aim of establishing the characteristics of ers live closer to their plots on the average. Mediterranean current practices. farmers have the lowest percentage of their land on hillsides
Several statistical techniques were used in analyzing the and rolling land.
data. These included simple chi-square tests, analysis of Clearly Aegean and South Marmara lagged behind Medivariance, multiple regression, and logit analysis. While a terranean and Thrace in use of HYV's. Notice too that in number of variables were considered (see Foreword for a Mediterranean and Thrace there is little evidence that size description of hypotheses) major attention was focused on is related to adoption while in Aegean and South Marmara agro-climatic region and farm size. there is some evidence of such a relationship as percentage of
area is larger than percentage of fields.
Two additional points should be made. If one compares
Regional Characteristics from Survey Data the regions in terms of "adoption" of HYV's where adoption
is defined as having more than 50 percent of the spring or
Data from the survey can be used to augment the cursory winter wheat lands in HYV's, then the rates are 93 percent description in the first section of this chapter. Certain for Mediterranean, 29 percent for Aegean, 31 percent for characteristics of farms and farmers are given in Table 1 South Marmara, and 72 percent in Thrace. The second and Table 2 while data on the use of the HYV's by regions point relates to durum wheats. While virtually no durum are in Table 3. wheat was produced by the sampled farmers of MeSome comparisons among regions are interesting. Notice diterranean, 30 percent of the plots of the Aegean farmers that average age in Aegean and South Marmara is well interviewed were in durums, 15 percent of those in South
below that in Thrace. Family size in Mediterranean is far Marmara, and 8 percent of those in Thrace. larger than in other regions. Little off-farm work is under- Similarly, the farmers of the four regions can be grouptaken. Tractor use is far more frequent in Mediterranean ed according to fertilizer use. The result is seen in Table 4. and Thrace than in Aegean or South Marmara. Notice that As with HYV's, fertilizer is most heavily used in MediAegean is well below the other regions on extension-related terranean and Thrace, falling sharply in Aegean and South variables (radio programs, field days) and on membership in Marmara. It should be noted that fertilizer use on wheat agricultural societies. Thrace ranks quite high on agricultural has increased appreciably since the introduction of the societies. Finally, both Aegean and South Marmara fall HYV's. In 1966-67 it was estimated that wheat absorbed
7




2(1 percentt of tihe total plant nutrients used in agricui;ure. nutrients applied to all wheat. Even so, there is yapq; By 1972, wheat was estimated to take up 60 percent of all some way to go before applications reach recomnisl nutrients used in agriculture. Based on the survey results levels, which are 160-200 kg/ha for HYV's and 120 14(0 the four regions under study used nearly 30 percent of the kg/ha for other varieties.
III. FARMER INCENTIVES FOR ADOPTION OF RECOMMENDATIONS
This chapter treats results of analyzing the data from group their responses in term of all of the elements of the
the bread wheat farmers interviewe, ,n conjunction with new technology as, with some 128 simplified combinations
the 1971-72 production survey. Anticipating the con- per region, the substantial vap nation among farmers permits
clusions it will be seen that differences among regions ory a few observations for each combinations of elements.
exercise the most notable influence on the pattern of adop- It ,., however, meaningful to group responses in terms of tion of HYV's and on fertizer use variety planted and fertilizer use. The results are shown
Before examining the data from the survey it is appro- in Table 5. Even so, it must be remembered that data are priate to review the elements of the new technology. These farmers' recollections of yields, hence are subject to a certain were: 1) HYV's, 2) increased use of fertilizer, 3) better margin of error. This presentation has the significant adseed bed preparation, presumably with tractor-drawn im- vantage of having maintained fertilizer use relatively constant
plements, 4) seed treatment, 5) proper seeding dates and between the two classes ol seed. Even so, as many other
rates, 6) seed and fertilizer applications with drlis, 7) ard important elements are left uncontrolled in Table 5 e.g. weed control. These will be covered in turn below with preceeding crop und ;eelin date-the yields are little
emphasis givn to use of HYV's and fertilizers, more thei iidic yive of the relative profitability of the
practices which i,,e being conJlered. Notice for example,
that larger applications of feiit!izer seem to be warranted
Measures of Profitability of Recommended Procedures in only three of the nine comparable cases-South Marmara
hillsides for both HYV's and other varieties and Thrace for
There is a presumption that by lollowin-g recommended other varieties. In the remaining six cases, the yield difprocedures farmers will realize greater per-hectare profits ferences are snort of the roughly 200 kilos of extra wheat than from following more traditional practices. This pre- needed to buy the extra fertilizer, e.g. for Aegean flat lands sumption is solidly backed by experimental data from e a:h under HYV's, the reported difference in yields associated of the regions. There is still the question of how fa mers with higher fertilizer use is only 90 kilos. This is a measure fare when they incorporate these practices. of the influence of the uncontrolled elements and, perhaps,
An earlier study undertaken by the Ministry of Agricul- of errors in reporting yields.
turel in 1968 showed that a sample of 55 farmers had In any case, before relative profitability can be assessed
average net return,; of 1810 Turkish Lira for HYV's while some additional adjustments must be made. First while a sample of 44 farmers had net returns of 791 TL per hec- relatively few of the sampled farmers reported seling tare from local varieties. This study also showed a consider- straw (7 percent, 4 percent, 12 percent and 29 percen. able difference in use of fertilizer and implements between respectively in the four regions), they do report that a the two sets of farmers, market exists and many use the straw for maintaining
To get an impression of relative yields under more nearly their own animals. Assume that the relative proportion of similar conditions sample farmers were asked about their usable dry matter is partitioned 40 percent to grail and
yields for the 1971-72 crop year. It was not worthwhile to 60 percent to straw in HYV's and 32 percent and 68 per8




cent in local varieties and that tie price of straw is 30 per- Table 5. Average yields (kg/ha) of bread wheats reported cent of the price of grain sampledd farmers ieportled prices by sampled farmers for 1971-72 by variety, fertilizer use, varying from 25 to 35 percent). Then the added grain and agro-climatic zone.
needed to offset the implied straw foregone from the data in Table 5 is seen in Table 6. HYV Other
A second adjustment can be made because, according ZLow High Low High
Region Zone feta fert. a fert. a fert. a
to Turkish government estimates, even when adjusting 1.-Mediterranean Flat---nds 2
1. Mediterranean Flat lands h 2518 b 1 750 c
for fertilizer, HYV's cost roughly 100 kilos of wheat per Hillsides 1556 b 950C b
hectare more to produce than do local varieties. These are 2. Aegean Flat lands 2204 2294 1727 b
said to be the additional costs of harvesting and tending Hillsides 1448 1533 1057 1134
3. S. Marmara Flat lands 2430 2375 1477 1550
the HYV's. This estimate seems high for several of the Hillsides 1063 1833 1008 1332
regions where reported yield differences between HYV's 4. Thrace Hillsides 1947 1811 1278 1600
and Other varieties are low e.g. Thrace hillsides.
a/ Low fertilizer is 0-60 kg/ha of nutrients in Regions 1, 3, and 4, Adding these costs together, deducting them from the 0-50 kg/ha in region 2. High fertilizer is 110-150 kgs. in region 1,
reported yields of HYV's and then deducting the reported 60-100 kg/ha in region 2, 80-100 kg/ha in regions 3 and 4. b/No
yields of ordinary varieties leaves the net extra yields data reported. c/Fewer than 10 observations.
shown in Table 7.
These calculations-based on farmers' reports of yields, an assumption about grain partition, the assumption that average fertilizer use within the respective fertilizer groups Table 6. Grain equivalent of extra straw produced by is the same for HYV and other groups-indicate that HYV's, HYV's as implied by yields of Table 5.
produce relatively more profits than other varieties in all but two situations. Those two are South Marmara hillsides fertility
Region Zone Low High
for low fertilizer users and Thrace hillsides for high fertilMediterranean
izer users. Again, we must emphasize the operative verb Aeg ean
Aegean Flat lands -91
"indicate" as these two results are certainly counter to Hillsides -18 -27
expectations. South Marmara Flat lands 127 67
Hillsides -137 20
One interesting aspect of Table 5 and Table 7 is that Thrace Hillsides 51 -170
in four of six hillside situations, the HYV's appear to he more profitable than the other varieties. This runs counter to the conventional wisdom of -he countryside which has held that HYV's are not useful on hillsides. The latter view has received some support from the Extension Service which Table 7. Net yield advantage (kg/ha) of HYV's over other
has not given the same emphasis to HYV's for Aegean and varieties after accounting for value of straw and certain
South Marmara hillsides that it has given to HYV's for other costs.
valley farmers.
It can be asked why the yields of Table 5 are so much fertility
Region Zone Low High
below the 4 to 6 tons yields cited by Experiment Stations
Mediterranean and regularly achieved on some farms. In significant Aegean Flat lands 286
measure, this occurs because farmers have not taken up all Hillsides 273 272
the practices recommended by agricultural scientists. Table South Marmara Flat lands 980 792
Hillsides -182 381
8 is a graphic demonstration of this assertion. Thrace Hillsides 620 -59
For the Aegean Region perhaps the most notable issues
Table 8. Farmer practices by type of wheat and region in 1971-72 production.
Mediterranean Aegean S. Marmara Thrace
HYV Other HYV Other HYV Other HYV Other Fertilizer (kg/ha 133 62 22 70 42 109 73
Treated seecs (% of fields) 61 21 77 68 98 75 97 84
Drilled wheat (% of fields) 2 0 5 1 4 15 6 2
Recommended date % of fields) 94 41 63
Weed control (% of fields) 20 10 25 12 87 52 33 32
Drilled fertilizer (% of farms) 2 0 0 0 0 0
Split applications fert. (% of farms) 78 48 92 70 81 59 67 5
9




are the low rates of fertilizer application and the low per- Measures of Risks of Recommended Procedures centage of farmers planting HYV's at the recommended
time. Weather was also a problem according to reports Looking now at risk, the situation is less clear than for
from the Aegean Regional Agricultural Research Institute profits. It appears that the growing conditions in the as some 200 millimeters less than the normal rainfall Mediterranean Region for HYV spring wheats and in Thrace
was received, for HYV winter wheats are such that there is no more
South Marmara is also distinguished by low rates of risk associated with their introduction than with other
fertilizer applications as compared with recommendations varieties. Mediterranean farmers face little danger from and by a significant portion of farmers who do not seed at frost and have not experienced major disease problems. the recommended time. Thrace is blessed with good moisture hence the criticism
Thrace shows up quite well except for split applications applied to Bezostaya-that yields are unstable because of of fertilizer. This may well be a less critical problem for the moisture stress-is niot applicable. Farmers of these two winter wheats and the rainfall regime of Thrace than in regions respond with high adoption rates and also are the spring wheat regions. using heavy fertilizer applications.
While irrigation is potentially available to many of the Circumstances are quite different, however, in the Aegean farmers cultivating spring wheats, few take advantage of it. and South Marmara areas where late frosts, especially in According to the survey, Aegean Region farmers irrigate the hills, can be devastating. One of the most critical factors
less than 10 percent of their spring wheat area, and most affecting yields of the Mexican varieties is time of seeding. of this is applied to improved varieties. The remaining Bill Wright, working with Turkey's Wheat Research and
regions report less than 1 percent of their spring wheat Training Center, states that "Perhaps the worst thing you under irrigation and Thrace reports roughly 1 percent of can do to a short duration type wheat (in Turkey) is to its winter wheat under irrigation, sow too early". Seeded early and with high temperatures
One final point must be made before proceeding to the during early growth, tillering is restricted and the plant
question of risk. In the summer of 1975, Mexican varieties moves quickly into the reproductive phase. If frost occurwere selling at a discount as compared with local varieties in ing while the plant is flowering, yields can be severely rethe market towns of the Aegean Region. The discount duced. Sown later, this phase occurs after all but the
was on the order of 10 percent and is attributable to the latest frosts. red grain of the Mexican varieties. This gives a reddish On the other hand, late seeding can also be undesirable.
tint to locally ground flour while the local amber-colored Demirlicamak of the Wheat Research and Training Center varieties produce a whiter flour through local mills. Given points out that, if seeding is late, rains can delay planting the local preference for white flour the local varieties are even more, leading to poor emergence and inadequate stands sold in the market towns while the Mexican varieties are if wet conditions persist. shipped to major mills. These constraints, especially that arising from frost,
On the other hand, no price differential was indicated put the Mexican varieties at a relative disadvantage in by the survey. An explanation of this apparent Contra- South Marmara and Aegean as compared with Italian or
diction is that the harvest of 1972 sold at the government other varieties. These varieties are of longer duration, support price with sufficient grain available that TMO hence, even if seeded early, have a high probability of
could maintain the price. By 1975, however, domestic escaping damage from frost. This is probably one of the
and world shortages along with Turkey's inflation pushed factors explaining the relatively row adoption of Mexican
market prices above support prices as local preferences varieties and the correspondingly higher adoption of Italian
were manifested. At the time of the survey in any case, as varieties in South Marmara. As Table 3 shows, South price differentials were small or nonexistent, they had little rMarmara has more area in Italian than in Mexican varieties. effect on adoption of improved varieties. It, has more area in improved winter wheats than in the
With respect to profits, then, experimental data, Ministry total of Italian and Mexican spring wheats. The heavier survey data, and the 1971-72 production survey data com- use of winter wheats is a measure of the relatively cooler
bine to support the argument that HYV's are more profit- temperatures prevailing in South Marmara, especially in able than other varieties, even when both are managed in the hills where nearly 90 percent of the Bezostaya is grown. roughly the same way. Notice, too, that the net yield This last point, it should be noted, is an dverse comdifferences reported in Table 7 represent proportionately mentary on the homogeneity of the hillside areas of South larger increases in net profits per hectare than in net yields Marmara. If some of the hills of that region support winter per hectare. For example, using simple averages, the net wheats (Bezostaya) while others support spring wheats yield increase of Table over the other varieties of Table (Italian, Mexican, and other), then these two sets of hills
5 is over 25 percent. Since other costs must be netted are clearly not part of a homogeneous agro-climatic zone.
from the base yields, the relative increase in profits is of Disease is also playing a role in farmers' assessments of a Substantially larger magnitude. the desirability of adopting new varieties. Some early users
10




of these varieties, especially in Aegean and South Marmara, equal or above 40 mm are very high. However, rainfall suffered when their HYV's showed far more susceptiblity seems to be an important factor at the flowering and
to Septoria than did local wheats in the attack of 1970. early filling stages. Probabilities of having rainfall equal to Penjamo withstood the attack reasonably well. Still, in or above 60 mm in March and April are highest in the
the minds of some farmers, the new varieties are suspect Mediterranean Region with 63 percent and considerably because some of them manifested great susceptibility to lower in Aegean and South Maramra. This is consistent this now-and-again scourge of wheat growers in the Medi- with the higher adoption rate of HYV's in Mediterranean terranean littoral. and lower adoption rates in Aegean and South Marmara.
Other diseases, the most important being yellow rust, are Perhaps even more significant is rainfall's influence on special problems in Aegean and South Marmara. Here, rates of fertilization. With the higher probability of late
however, it appears that the Italian varieties and Penjamo rains in the Mediterranean Region, farmers can be more show better resistance than do the local varieties, confident of adequate moisture, hence would rend to be
Looking now at precipitation, the monthly rainfall more disposed to accept the costs of high rates of fertilpatterns seems to be less favorable to HYV's in Aegean izer. This is certainly con.-istent wvith the behavior of
and South Marmara Regions than in the Mediterranean Mediterranean farmers (see Table 4). The probabilities do
Region. not properly order the Aegean and South Marmara regions
Discussions with scient ists2 indicate two different stages with respect to fertilizer use but this might be influenced in wheat's growth cycle. At these stages minimum amounts by the higher temperatures and evaporation rates of the of moisture are critical. The first critical stage is at crown Aegean. These conditions can impose an even greater root initiation, which starts 3 to 4 weeks after seeding. The need for moisture in that region than in South Marmara. second critical stage is at flowering and early in the seed With this, the threshold level in South Marmara might filling period. This usually occurs some 130-150 days after be overstated relative to Aegean. If so, the probability of seeding, depending upon the environmental conditions, achieving threshold levels is understated.
The threshold moisture level below which yields are lower Frost and disease are also playing a role in fertilizer
than expectations needed for these two critical stages vary use. If farmers must be concerned about disease, frost, and depending upon several factors. Given the conditions exist- precipitation, whether on local or improved varieties, they ing in the coastal regions of Turkey, a rule of thumb that tend to use fewer complementary inputs in production. seems reasonable is that 40-50 mnm rainfall either in De- These considerations might well explain the markedly lower cember or January or both, (roughly when crown roots de- fertilizer use found in Aegean and South Marmara (Table 4), velop) and 60-70 mm of rainfall in either March or April where risks are relatively higher than in Mediterranean. or both (flowering and early filling stage) is usually sufficient for a good harvest. Assuming the lower figures as Summary the threshold levels, Table 9 snows the probabilities of
having amounts of precipitation more than or equal to While not' conclusive, the data presented in this chapter
the thresholds. The probabilities are based on monthly suggest that HYV's are more profitable than local varieties
observations of the past 15 years averaged over several under virtually all of the circumstances covered by this
localities. study. From the data in Table 5, fertilizer does not appear
As is observed from Table 9, rainfall is not likely to be to be profitable in Aegean and South Marmara, where a limiting factor in the coastal regions at the crown root average rates of application are low, nor in Thrace where development stage. The probabilities of having rainfall average rates of application are high. Neither HYV's nor
Table 9. Estimated probability that rainfall will exceed specified threshold levels by region.
Crowvn root development Flowering and early flying H-YV
Pr. Iprecip >40 mm in Pr. Iprecip. >60 mm in Adoption
Region Dec. and Jan.) March and April) ratesa
Mediterranean 0.94 0.63 94.9
Aegean 0.93 0.43 28.7
South Marmara 0.93 0.37 26.4
a! Percent of fields under HYVs.




local varieties manifest a profitable response to fertilizers Notes according to the data of Table 5, certainly an anomalous
result.
The discussion on risk outlined several ways in which 1. Denizli llinde Pamuk, Mekiska Bugdayi Cesitleri ve Akbasak
risk might be influencing the adoption of HYV's. It was Bugdayinin Mukayes eli Ekonomik Analizi (1967-68), Tarim Bak.
seen that both regions with low adoption rates-Aegean Planlama ve Ekon. Arast. Dairesi Bask. Yayin No. 36, Ankara
1969.
and South Marmara-experience relatively more climatic
risk from disease, frost and rainfall than do the regions 2. Private discussion with Dr. Glenn Anderson and Dr. Sanjaya
with higher rates of adoption. Rajaram at CIMMYT, Mexico.
IV. ADOPTION AND CHARACTERISTICS OF THE FARM, FARMER,
AND GOVERNMENT PROGRAMS
A number of variables expected to be related to farmers' higher HYV adoption rates than hillsides (Table 11). This
decisions to adopt new technological practices are presented result accords quite well with the discussion. Differences in the Foreword. Included are characteristics of the farm, are small in Mediterranean where overall adoption rates
of the farmer, and of government programs related to the approach 100 percent and are substantial in Aegean where
technologies being considered. In this chapter we present disease and frost conspire against HYV spring wheats while
the survey data in a number of ways, showing the climate is not right for winter wheats. In contrasting smallrelationships between adoption of new practices and each er farms with larger forms within region by topography
of these factors in two-way tables. In the following chapter classes, the effect of farm size is usually positive. There we present the results of multivariate analysis of the effect are two exceptions to this, that in Mediterranean flat lands of the factors on adoption when considered simultaneously, is small while that in South Marmara flat lands is notable.
Only one other difference exceeds 20 percentage points,
that between smaller and larger farms in Thrace.
HYV's and Individual Variables It was hypothesized that flat lands would show larger
adoption rates than hillsides and larger farmers would lead
The new wheat varieties were introduced to Turkish farm- smaller farmers. In general this is true but differences in
ers on a large scale in 1967 after extensive trials in 1966. adoption rates related to farm size are small with the single Most of these HYV's were imported from Mexico along exception of Thrace. It might well be that larger farmers
with Bezostaya from Russia. Accompanying the importa- adopted first, followed by smaller farmers, in which case
tion of the seed, the Ministry of Agriculture launched a earlier differences would have been larger. By 1972 howdramatic program to promote use of the varieties and of ever, 5 years after introduction of new varieties, large difcomplementary agronomic practices. By 1972, Penjamo, a ferences afe not evident. It is clear that the impact of
variety from Mexico, occupied 70 percent of the coastal topography exceeds that of farm size.
area seeded to HYV of bread wheats while Bezostaya ac- Age, education, and membership in agricultural societies.
counted for all of the HYV's grown in Thrace (See Table 3). Table 12 relates adoption of HYV's to three characteristics
Farm size and topography. With respect to topography, of farmers. No simple relationship between adoption and
the term "flat lands" refers to land actually in valleys or on age is evident. Only in the case of Mediterranean Region flat plains. In forming the two farm-size categories, each is it true that younger farmers lead older farmers in the use sub-region's farms (e.g. the farms of Aegean hillsides) were of improved varieties. arrayed by size and divided evenly into two groups. The Education and adoption of HYV's do show a consistent
range of farm sizes and the proportion of farmers falling relationship across each of the four regions. In each region
into each group is given in Table 10. the average education of adopters is higher than the average
Within regions and holding farm size constant, the effects education of those who use other varieties.
of topography are consistent in that flat lands always have Turkish farmers have access to a wide range of agricultural
12




Table 10. Range of farm sizes for sampled farmers by Table 11. Adoption of HYV's a among sampled farmers by
sub-regions and proportion of sampled farmers in each size of farm, b region, and topography b (percent).
sub-region.
All Smaller Larger
Size (ha.) Pro portion R(%) Region Zone farmers farmers farmers
Region Zone Smallest Largest Smallest Largest Mediterranean Flat lands 96 95 97
Mediterranean Hillside 0.1-6 6.1-125 33.5 33.5 Hillsides 91 92 90
Flat lands 0.1-8 8.1-150 16.5 16.5 Aegean Flat lands 69 60 77
Aegean Hillside 0.1-3.8 3.9-37 37.5 37.5 Hillsides 14 4 23
Flat lands 0.1-4.5 4.6-22 12.5 12.5 South Marmara Flat lands 57 70 43
S. Marmara Hillside 0.14.3 4.4-108 38.6 38.6 Hillsides 22 13 32
Flat lands 0.1-3.3 3.4-15 11.4 11.4 Thrace Hillsides 70 62 85
Thrace Hillside 0.1-7.9 8-128 50 50 al Mexican, Italian, and Russian varieties. b/ See table 10 and
discussion.
societies. Among these are Chambers of Agriculture, Agri- on the plains or in the Mediterranean region. Even though
cultural Credit Cooperatives, Agricultural Sales Cooperatives, the last severe outbreak of Septoria, in 1969, occurred in Village Development Cooperatives, and 4H Clubs, (clubs Mediterranean region, the agro-climatic characteristics of
emphasizing the teaching of agricultural skills of young South Marmara tend to be most favorable to Septoria's
people). For the sampled farmers, coops were the dominant development. Stripe rust tends to be most notable in
kind of society with over two thirds of those reporting South Marmara and stem rust in Aegean. The Mediterranean
some kind of association being members of cooperatives. Region suffers little from either.
As with education, a consistent pattern emerges across all On the basis of these natural risks and the foregoing
four regions with adopters of HYV's reporting greater description of the varieties, we would expect Mexican
membership in agricultural societies than do users of other varieties to have a clear advantage in Mediterranean Region varieties. Members of such societies, especially members of and a lesser advantage in South Marmara and the high cooperatives, are said to have easier access to credit and to hills of Aegean because of Septoria and late frost. Italian such inputs as improved seeds and fertilizers than has the varieties would tend to have an advantage in South Marmara
farmer who is not affiliated. It is notable that such a large because of Septoria resistance. On the basis of risk portion of the sampled farmers in Mediterranean and considerations, Mexican HYV's would tend to be preferred
Thrace regions report membership in such agricultural over Italian HYV's in Aegean flat-lands, where frost is not a
societies, factor but stem rust is, with roughly comparable risks on
It should be noted that age and education are negatively the higher hills where frost threatens the early maturing correlated for Turkish farmers. The simple coefficients of Mexican HYV's more than the later Italian HYV's.
correlation are -0.52, 0.45, -0.43 and 0.61 for Medterranean, Aegean, South Marmara, and Thrace regions respectively.
Risk aversion: Earlier discussion has argued that HYV's
are more sensitive to the vagaries of weather and to some
diseases than are local varieties. For example, late frosts Table 12. Age, education, membership if farm organizations, were described as having more serious consequences for and adoption of HYV's by region for sampled farmers.
Mexican HYV's than for local varieties. Mexican HYV's Average Average Members b
are also thought to be more susceptible to Septoria than Region Seed age (years) education a ll
the Italian HYV's or local varieties. On the other hand, local Mediterranean HYV 51 2.5 97
varieties are more susceptible to rusts than are the HYV's. Other 58 1.9 85
The occurrence of late frost, of Septoria, and or rust is Aegean HYV 50 3.0 40
Other 47 2.2 10
unpredictable except in probabilistic terms. Thus, in those South Marmara HYV 48 2.6 30
regions where late frost or Septoria are thought to be major Other 47 2.0 15
problems, farmers planting Mexican HYV's tend to be Thrace HYV 54 2.5 72
Other 53 2.4 69
exposing themselves to more risks than those planting local
varieties. The converse is true in areas where rusts are a/ The averages are based on coded values; e.g. "never went to
prevalent. school" is coded 1 while "graduate of college" is coded 7. b/The
partitioned sets are adopters and non-adopters so that, e.g. foT
Late frosts will tend to be a greater problem in the Thrace, of those using HYV's 72% are members of an agricultural
higher hills and in South Marmara followed by Aegean than society.
13




With respect to Thrace, the Mexican and Italian HYV's adopters of HYV's expected fewer years of bad weather are simply not relevant as winter wheats are required. This than did users of local varieties. No users of local varieties leaves the field there open to Bezostaya. Bezostaya is also responded to the question in the Mediterranean. Only in sometimes found in the higher hills of Aegean and South the case of South Marmara is the number of respondents Marmara where climate calls for a winter wheat. This, sufficiently large to permit placing much faith in the frequenof course, is an adverse comment on the homogeneity of cies reported. It should be pointed out that interesting the agro-climatic regions as they were drawn, comparisons are those between HYV and Others within
In an effort to relate risk, farmer's perceptions of risk, regions. Comparison between regions has little meaning. and the adoption of HYV's, an index of optimism was A more interesting comparison, of course, would have been
constructed for each farmer. The index is the ratio of between adopters and others within topography classes but bad and normal yields divided by the relative probability the limited number of observations makes these comparisons which the farmer assigns to bad and normal weather.' dubious.
The range of the index is from zero to infinity with Indices for all farmers were arrayed by region and a
zero occurring when yields in a bad year are held to equal series of descriptive statistics were calculated. No pattern to zero or when the probability assigned to normal weather emerged from comparisons of the several measures calculatis zero. As the relative yields in bad years approach 1 ed. In terms of means, only that for Thrace differs from or as the subjective probability of the occurrence of a bad the other three. Even here, while adoption rates in South year declines the value of the index rises. Marmara are clearly lower than Mediterranean and Thrace,
Only normal and bad years are considered in the index the average index of optimism is much higher in South because of the assumption that income-seeking risk-avert- Marmara than in the other two regions. Irng farmers worry most about the consequences of bad Extension Variables. When the new wheat campaign was
weather. This is roughly in line with the treatments of launched in 1967, few farmers or extension agents in Turkey Roy 2, Telser 3, and Kataoka 4 where it is argued that the know about HYV's or about the agronomic practices esprobability of getting income below some critical level sential for attaining high yields. At the outset, Government plays an important role in decision making. assigned 250 extension workers to the coastal regions for
To quantify farmers' perception about nature, sample full time work in the wheat program. International agencies farmers were asked to guess yield levels obtainable in their and experts from foreign universities also helped to diffuse best fields under bad, normal and good weather conditions. the new technology. They were also asked to tell how many bad, normal, and All in all a substantial effort was made to get information
good years they expected in the next 10 years. Nearly to the farmers. One measure of the success of this effort all of the farmers responded to the question on yield is that virtually all of the farmers sampled for this levels. Only some 10 percent responded to the question study reported knowing ahout HYV's. Only in the Aegean on the fequency distribution of bad, normal and good Region did those reporting no knowledge of improved
years. For those farmers not responding to this question, wheat varieties exceed 3 percent. There, some 30 perit was arbitrarily assumed that each outcome has equal cent of the sample farme!,, said they were not aware of probability, i.e. the Principal of Insufficient Reason was such varieties. invoked. For farmers not responding to the question on Most of the farmers reported that their first knowledge
weather, then, the optimism index is simply the ratio of of HYV's came from the extension service. In all regions yields in years of bad weather to yields in years of good the proportion reporting fiir knowledge from agricultural weather. organizations exceeded 80 percent. This result might be
Farmers responding to the question on the relative fre- partially attributable to the fact that the enumerators for quency of various kinds of weather were grouped according this survey were extension agents. to the class of wheat seed they used. The results are A surprisingly large number of sampled farmers reportshown in Table 13. For each region save the Mediterranean, ed extension visits, from 75 percent in Aegean to 92 percent in Thrace. This might be because farmers were reporting all kinds of visits by representatives of agencies associated with agriculture. Many farmers reported participating in
extension activities-from 13 percent in Aegean to 43 percent in Mediterranean. Finally, the reported knowledge of
Table 13. Relative frequency of bad weather as related the technology and of the equipment best suited to the to use of HYV's and local varieties by region. Implementation of the technology varied from 37 percent
Medierrnea Aeean Sout Mamar Thace in the Aegean to 76 percent in the Mediterranean and up Medierrnea Aeean Sous Mamar Thace to approximately 95 percent in the other two regions. HYV's 0.24 0.20 0.12 0.23 In each of the above cases the Aegean Region lagged
Others a 0.31 0.32 0.37 well behind the others, and it also lags in the adoption of
a/ No observations. HYV's. But, in eachcase, South Marmara compared quite
14




well with Mediterranean and Thrace and it too lags behind Among farmers reporting the purchase of HYV's an in the adoption of HYV's. overwhelming proportion of them paid with their own cash:
Table 14 relates several dimensions of extension to the over 65 percent in Mediterranean, over 80 percent in class of seed reported by sampled farmers. While clear cut Aegean and Thrace, and over 70 percent in South Marmara. patterns do not emerge from the table, adoption of HYV's These responses may, of course, signal that tight credit is usually report closer association with extension activities limiting the expansion in use of HYV's. than do users of other varieties. M arkets. Even given the faithful and sincere efforts of
Seed availability and credit. Government influenceson the government to protect farmers from the vag~iries of the production of seed dates to 1963 when a seed produc- adverse price fluctuations, it is sometimes said that not all tion and certification law was passed. Responsibility for farmers have access to the protection offered by the goinsuring quality seed falls to State Farms. These farms vernment's wheat trading agency, IMO. In particular it is produce seed and also gather the seed of contracted farm- said that Aegean and South Marmara farmers do not find ers. They inspect, clean, treat, and bag the assembled seed these services available and that, because of apprehension which is then sent to seed laboratories for testing. Seed over the marketability of the red grained Mexican wheats, distribution is carried on by several cooperating govern- these farmers were reluctant to adopt improved varieties. mental agencies. To examine the validity of these statements two marketSeed production and sales reached 200,000 tons in 1969. ing variables were included in the analysis.
From 1969 on, production has held up well but sales de- It is instructive to consider the relation between adoption
dined substantially to 39,000 tons in 1971. It is said that of HYV's and sales of wheat. This is seen in Table 15. The this reduction is largely due to the reduction in the availa- percentages clearly present a consistent pattern with high bility of agricultural credit for financing seed purchases. rates of adoption and sales going together. Even so, of
There is some evidence that availability of seeds is in- the farmers selling wheat, 45 percent grew local varieties fluencing adoption of HYV's. For example, in Aegean in Aegean, 56 percent in South Marmnara, and 20 percent
Region 58 percent of the farmers sampled expressed this in Thrace. difficulty and 89 percent of these did not plant HYV's. Data from several Aegean and South Marmara villages
For South Marmara the comparable percentages are 56 with low adoption rates support some interesting speculaand 92 respectively. By~ way of contrast while 25 percent tion on the influence of markets on the diffusion of HYV's. of Mediterranean farmers reported difficulty in getting In the twelve selected villages with 122 farmers only seven HYV's, only 18 percent of these did not plant HYV's. farmers used HYV's. Forty-six farmers, 38 percent, sold
A second factor which might limit the use of HYV's wheat. All but one of these sold wheat to private dealers.
is the distance which farmers must travel in order to ac- Of the seven adopters, four sold wheat and one of these quire the seed. For both Aegean and South Marmara, the sold to IMO. This all might mean that the emphasis on distance to a source of HYV's is lower for adopters than private sales led the farmers to prefer local wheats over for others. In the case of Aegean the comparison is 14.6 H YV's. km. vs. 15.2 km while in South Marmara it is 16.9 km. vs. While the preceding conclusion is not completely con28.3 km. Again, however, the pattern is made less mean- sistent with the absence of price differentials reported by ingful by the average distance reported by adopters in farmers surveyed, it does fit other data which suggest that Thrace, 19.9 km. This is considerably greater than the while prices of the two wheats tend to move together, for distance reported by non-adopters in Aegean. some markets IMO does not operate for long periods.
Rather, in some local markets IMO is on hand for only a
few months after harvest.
Data from the survey are not, unfortunately, completely
clear on the effects of markets on adoption of HYV's. More
detailed field work is being carried out to clarify the role of
Table 14. Extension services by region and by class of markets in the diffusion of HYV's. seed (percent of farmers).
Extension Field days, Aware of new
Region Seed visits lectures, etc. technology
Mediterranean HYV's 78 Tabl 755ecnae fsmlefresaotn Y'
Other 80 27 67 Tbe1.Pretgso apefresaotn Y'
Aegean HYV's 82 26 54 and percentage reporting sales of wheat.
Other 68 7 30
South Marmara HYV's 98 33 100 Mediterranean Aegean S. Marmara Thrace
Other 84 44 91
Thrace HYV's 93 45 96 Fields with HYV's 95 28 27 76
Other 89 15 98 Farms selling wheat 82 33 25 78
15




Table 16. Average fertilizer use on wheat by sampled Fertilizer and Individual Varieties
farmers cross classified by farm size, region, and topography (kg N+P2 05 per ha). Fertilizer use in wheat has increased dramatically in Turkey.
_________________________________________ From application of 3 percent of all wheat in 1963 it Region Zone Smaller farms Larger farms rose to 32 percent of all wheat in 1972. Subsides on
Mediterranean Hillsides 125 143 fertilizers were instituted in 1963 and, until 1974, it is
Flat lands 113 122 estimated that Turkish farmers paid some 40 percent of the
Aegea Hlids 26 5 productioncost. Roughly, three kilos of wheat were required
South Marmara Hillsides 44 60 to buy a kilo of nitrogen. Half of the nitrogeneous fertilFlat lands 57 53izers were produced domestically, half were imported.
Thrace Hillsides 91 106 Benefit/cost ratios estimated by State Planning Organization were favorable to wheat, on the order of 3, but were even better for such crops as beets (4), beans (5), rice Table 17. Fertilizer use on wheat by sampled farmers (10), and cotton (11).
classified by region, topography, farm size a, and type of Farm size, topography, and HYV's. Table 16 shows seed (kg N + P2 05 per ha). average use of nitrogen and phosphorus on wheat by sam______________________________________________ pled farmers. All farms are cross classified by farm size, Smaller farms Larger farms region, and topography. The effect of region and farm
Region Zone HYV Other HYV Other size is quite clear as the farmers of Mediterranean and
Mediterranean Hillsides 133 153 Thrace use far more fertilizer than these of the Aegean
Flat lands 114 124 or South Marmara regions. With the single exception of
Aegean Hillsides 26 64 30
Flat lands 64 16 60 27 South Marmara flat lands, larger farmers apply more fertilSouth Marmara Hillsides 69 41 64 42 izer to wheat than do smaller farmers. Topography has no
Flat land 80 37 65 48 consistent affect on fertilizer applications as flat-land farmThrace Hillsides 107 67 110 89
______________________________________________ ers sometimes use more fertilizer than do hillside farmers a/ See Table 10. and sometimes the reverse.
Table 17 shows fertilizer use as influenced by type of seeds. It is clear from the table that farmers who plant Table 18. Fertilizer use and membership in agricultural HYV's, use more fertilizer on the average than do farmers organizations by region (kg N P2 05 per ha). who plant local varieties. The difference is consistent for
Medierrnea Aegan Mrmar Thace all regions, topographies, and farm size groups. It is unMedierrnea Aegan Mrmar Thace doubtedly connected with research results which show that Members 151 47 53 102 HYV's are more fertilizer responsive than local varieties.
Non-members 93 22 28 53 An unpublished State Planning Organization report shows
benefit/cost ratios of 2.73 for HYV's and 1.93 for local varieties. It is also linked to credit programs which insist Table 19. Distance from farm to source of fertilizer by that recipients of credit for seed use fertilizer at recoinregion and quantity used (kilometers). mended levels. While this stricture is probably not adhered
Fertlizr us Meiteranen AeeanS. Mrmaa Thace too, it has undoubtedly had some influence..
Fertlizr ue Mditrraean egen S Mamar ThaceThe most arresting result from Table 17 is that for High 20.3 14.7 12.1 13.9 HYV's the relationship between fertilizer use and farm
Low 8.5 8.3 4.9 4.5 size, seen in Table 16, is sharply reduced when variety
grown is considered. Much of the difference in fertilizer use on small and large farms appears to be related to the Table 20. Percentage of sampled farmers using fertilizers more widespread use of HYV's on the larger farms. Only who expressed difficulty in obtaining fertilizer, by region, in Mediterranean Region is the size/fertilizer relationship class of seed, and level of fertilizer use. maintained. For local varieties, however, the size/fertil____________________________________________ izer relationship is maintained in each of the five subRegion Seed Low Use High Use regions in which appreciable quantities of local wheats are
Mediterranean HYV 33 55 found.
Other -- One general point can be made with respect to fertilAegean HYV 30 57
Other 41 34 izer use and this is that only in the Mediterranean area are
South Marmara HYV 42 50 farmers approaching recommended levels. RecommendaOther 60 74tions are on the order of 180 kilos of nutrients-roughly
Thrace HYV 66 7512kioofntoean60klsophpae-ngg
Other 83 6712kioofntoean60klsophshe-ngg
_________________________________________ from 160 kilos to 200 kilos. Contrast such recommenda16




tions with the data of the tables which show even the Table 21. Source of funds for fertilizer purchases among
highest area, larger Mediterranean hillside farmers, at 143 sampled farmers (percent) kilos with other regions falling away sharply from that rate. Or consider the data of Table 4 which suggest that region Own hueS,% 0u rtIl I rloiIu loll
some 19 per cent of Mediterr anean f armer s, less than 3 pei Mediterranean 417 36 1!1
percent of Aegean farmers, less than 4 percent of South Aegean 44 55, 1
South Marmara 38 38 25
Marmara farmers, and less than 16 percent of Thrace farm- Thrace 44 45 12
ers are following recommendations.
What is restraining fertilizers, whether ignorance, faulty recommendations, availability of fertilizers, or risk aversion, cannot be said. It's likely that each of these factors is pecnofMdtraanamrsnd3pretofAgn contributing in greater or lesser degree to the differences parern ofd Medteraeand farme anq3ueent ofil Aegeuanl between use and recommendations.famrdinorepn toheqsinwilvruly
Membership. Age and education as they related to fertil- all South Marmara and Thrace farmers responded).
izer use were not examined individually. Membership in Credit clearly played an important role in financing the
agriultralsocetis ws cnsidredandtheresltsare purchase of fertilizers. Judging from the column "Own funds"
shon i Tale 8. t i clar hatmemersuseappecibly there is not much variation among regions except that so wn ine Tble 18tha isclarttmembers useahofte app rebl South Marmara appears to be somewhat lower than others.
gions. This is consistent with the idea that societies, especial- reflected inthres scnao the tablrene merchants plnaycn ly cooperatives, have preferred access to fertilizers and relcdintesodpatfthtbe.Mcatsly
thatsocety embrs ave asir acessto redi an to an important role in Mediterranean Region while cooperathatiloc ietsember thave easin-emaces.oceitadt tives dominate financing in the remaining regions.
thefetilizer tsoelf thnFor nonhembeprs.amestanpr A cross classification of farmers by size with respect to
fertilizers from markets to farmrs. Only in Aegean Region fetlzrcdishwdhamogamrsungetlzr, is an appreciable portion transported by someone other larger farmers tend to be more likely to use credit for
fertilizers than smaller farmers. The differences are small than the farmer. There some 24 percent of the sampled in Mediterranean and Thrace, less than 2 percentage points,
farmers report other means of transportation. and larger in South Marmara, 21 percentage points. In
Variation in distances transported vary from region to Aegean Region, the relationship is reversed with 71 percent region and between those who use heavy and light applica- of the smaller farme-s using credit for fertilizer versus 63 tions. This variation is seen in Table 19.pecnfolagramrs
In gnerl difernce aresmal an reateshorer is- Extension service. Several classes of extension services tances to greater fertilizer use. were included in the study. These and their relationship to
Availability and credit. While the use of fertilizer has fertilizer use are included in Table 23.
increased dramatically since 1963, it is said that many A greater proportion of those using more fertilizers
farmrs annt obainthefertlizr tey wuldlik to reported visits from extension personnel than did those aphave. Table 20 relates class of seed and relative use of plying less fertilizer. Roughly the same pattern holds for fertilizers to difficulties in getting fertilizers as reported participation in field days, lectures, and etc. as well as among
by smple farers.those who were aware of the technology. In general, then, a
While no consistent pattern emerges from the data of graeexouetetnsnsrvcsirltdtoraTable 20 it can be said that those with greater use of gr'etzer xpsuet xeso evcsi eae oget
fertilizer and those seeding HYV's tend to have greater Two aspects of the table are of interest. One is the
proportions reporting difficulties in obtaining fertilizers.reaiewrnssonwtchlgybSuhMrma
Another classification on thrs same variable, i.e. farm fres h aasgette r oeaaeta
size against difficulty in obtaining fertilizer shows that farmers. other dataon suet theyr arepio m res war than only in Aegean and South Marmara did small farmers report appreciably more difficulty in obtaining fertilizers than large farmers. For Aegean 79 percent of small farmers as compared with 76 nercent of larger farmers reported dif- Table 22. Source of credit for fertilizer purchases among ficulty while for South Marmara 63 percent of smaller farm- sampled farmers using credit (percent). ers as compared with 44 percent of larger farmers reported difficulties. Agricultural
Credit is widely used for purchasing fertilizer according Region bank Cooperatives Merchants Other
to sampled farmers. This is seen in Table 21 which Mediterranean 17 39 38 6
reports source of funds and Table 22 which shows source Aegean 11 89 0
South Marmara 11 72 1 16
of credit for those using credit. The percentages related Thrace 17 80 1 2
only to those who responded to the question (some 28 _________________________17




Table 23. Participation in various classes of extension Table 24. Participation in various classes of extension
service by region and fertilizer use (percent). services by region and farm size (percentages of farmers).
Partic- Aware of Region Farm size Extension visits Field days
Fertil izer Extension ipated field new tech- Mediterranean Smaller 71 33
Region use visits days, etc. nology Larger 86 54
Mediterranean High 92 53 79 Aegean Smaller 65 11
Low 69 36 72 Larger 81 15
Aegean High 67 11 52 South Marmara Smaller 85 40
Low 82 8 26 Larger 91 43
South Marmara High 95 56 99 Thrace Smaller 92 33
Low 80 26 88 Larger 93 41
Thrace High 93 35 96
Low 92 40 96
tually all elements, are notably lower than those in Medi- Other Elements of the Technology.
terranean and Thrace.
The second is the relatively low rates of exposure Looking now at other elements of the technology, data
evidenced in Aegean Region. This conforms with their from sampled farmers have been cross classified with use
low rates of adoption of HYV's and fertilizers, of HYV's by region. The results are seen in Table 25.
An alternative grouping vis a vis extension services is Seeds distributed by state farms are virtually always
shown in Table 24. Here, exposure to extension services treated. Seeds can also be treated by farmers with the
is cross classified by region and farm size. assistance of cooperatives or other agricultural agencies.
As expected larger farmers fare better than smaller In general, and as might be expected because government
farmers. Again Aegean farmers, with low rates of fertilizer agencies distribute no local varieties of spring wheat, more
use and adoption of HYV's have lower percentages of HYV users report seed treatment than do growers of local
participation than do farmers from other regions. South wheats. The proportions are quite high for South Marmara
Marmara farmers, on the other hand, have high rates of and Thrace HYV growers, notably low for Mediterranean
participation but low rates of adoption. Mediterranean local variety growers.
farmers, with the highest rates of adoption, tend to lag Surprisingly few farmers drill seeds. Only in Aegean
behind both South Marmara and Thrace farmers. Region is there any appreciable use of seed drills. In
Table 25. Farmers reporting certain practices classified by class of seed and by agro-climatic region (percent of fields).
Treated Drilled Seeded Weed Fertilizer Fertilizer Region Seed seeds seeds Nov-Dec a control hand-cast split dose
Mediterranean HYV's 61 2 94 20 98 78
Other 21 0 10 10 100 48
Aegean HYV's 77 5 37 25 93 67
Other 68 1 30 12 86 5
South Marmara HYV's 98 4 59 87 100 81
Other 75 15 22 52 100 59
Thrace HYV's 97 6 b 33 100 92
Other 84 2 b 32 100 70
al Recommended date for varieties from Mexico. bi Winter wheats seeded earlier in the fall.
18




general more HYV users avail themselves of di ills hut the As with seed, most flei tilizei is Ihand cast. Whati is ait her
differences--HYV versus users of local va ieties--while con su Ii) sing is that hand cast iIn( shows ip lel ivPly lIrss ;1i1ini1 sistent, are negligible. Aegean farmers. Given thie iuse of seed dlills Iqurlhed iII
Looking now at seeding date, Mediterranean HYV uses South Maima a, oie would have ex)r'cted Sntlh Mar1inni
are complying with the recommended seeding dates. Aegean to have shown less hand casting of fer tilizei than Aegealn.
HYV users do not seem to be doing so but there are ex- HYV users are more consistent in repoiting split ap
tenuating circumstances. First, some 20 percent of the plications of fertilizers than are users of other varieties.
HYV's are Bezostaya and this has a different seeding date. Moreover, differences tend to be large. This is undoubtedly
Second, some 25 percent of those using varieties from related to the larger applications of fertilizers reported by
Mexico are sowing in the spring. Thus, if all remaining HYV users.
HYV users were seeding at the recommended time, the All in all, HYV users tend to be more likely to apply
percentage should be 60 percent rather than 37 percent, complementary recommended practices than are those who
Why nearly half of the winter sown Mexican HYV's are seed other varieties. Except for split applications of fertilnot seeded at the recommended time is not evident from izer and weed control, however, the differences are not notathe data. It is likely that yields are reduced but it might ble. also be true that risks of frost or excessive moisture at
planting time is also reduced.
For South Marmara 70 percent of the HYV's are from
Italy and Russia. Thus it can be inferred that all of the Notes
Mexican plus a good part of the Italian varieties are being
sown in November and December. It should be pointed I. The weather risk index for a oiven farmer is defined as
out that most Italian and local varieties are photoperiod / (Yb/Yn)/b/P n) where Yb and Yn are the yields (in k!/decare)
sensitive hence the date of seeding is not so ci itical as with the farmer expects in bad and normal conditions, and Pb and Pn Mexican varieties, are the probabilities the farmer assigns to bad and normal conditions.
HYV users consistently report more weed control than 2. A.D. Roy. 1952. "Safety first and the holding of assets," EconoHYV users consistently report more weed control than m tia 94 14 8
metrica, 29:431-438.
do users of other varieties, but, except for South Marmara, 3. L.G. Telser. 1955-56. "Safety first and hedging," Review of the differences are not large. The quite substantial differ- Economicstudies, 23:1-16. ence in weed control seen in South Marmara is not readily 4. S. Kataoka. 1963. "A stockastic programming model," Econoexplainable. metrica, 31:181-196.
V. MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS OF FACTORS AFFECTING ADOPTION
In the previous chapter, we examined the relationship in relating several independent variables to the adoption of
between adoption of HYV's, fertilizer use, and individual HYV's and to the application of fertilizers. The statistical
variables through the use of two-way tables. For several properties of ordinary least squares are reasonably satisfacreasons, it is useful to examine the relationships using tory for analysis of the amount of fertilizer applied and
multivariate analysis. First, we can consider variables this technique was applied to that relationship. Ordinary
not easily considered in two-way tables. Second, multivariate least squares can, however, be quite unsatisfactory for the analysis allows us to estimate the effect of any one variable analysis of a dichotomous variable such as the adoption of while holding others constant. Finally, we are able to HYV's.
compare more directly the effects of each of the variables Nerlove and Press' discuss the problems involved in
being considered. applying ordinary least squares to relationships featuring
Two types of analytical techniques, ordinary least a dichotomous dependent variable. They go on to offer
squares regression analysis and logit analysis, are employed logit analysis as an alternate technique. In this study both
19




Table 26. Description of variables used in regression and Factors Affecting Adoption of HYV's. logit analysis of adoption decisions.
______________________________________________ We first present the general nature of the results of the Independent variables analysis of adoption decisions, then procede to discuss
Age: Farmer's age; in years. them in more detail. We shall speak of a variable as having
Education: Farmer's education; codes from 1 (no formal an important effect if it is estimated with reasonable
education) to 7 (college). acrc n fisefc ntepoaiiyo dpini
Family size: Number of family members dependent on farm acrc n fisefc otepoaiiyo dpini
Membership: Membership in agricultural society; 1 if member, notable. Reasonable accuracy in estimation is defined here
0 if not. as a logit t-ratin of at least 1.0 in absolute value. A notable
Radio: Number of times per month the farmer listens effect is defined as an increase of 10 points or more in the
to agricultural radio programs. probability of adoption when (a) a continous independent
Off-farm work: Off-farm work by farmer; number of days per variable changes from its value at the 15th percentile to its
year.vauatte8tpecnieiitsapedsrbtor
Other income: Off-farm income by members other than farm- vauathe8hprcnienissmledtibior
er; 1 = yes, 0 = no. (b) a dichotomous variable is increased from a value of zero
Weather risk: An index of farmer's assessment of weather risk to a value of 1.0. Since about 95 percent of the farmers in
(see text), smaller values representing more the Mediterranean Region were using HYV's, that region risky assessment. (Index values range from was not included in the analysis. The regression and. logit
0.07 to 6.0).cofiinsfrtetrermiigrgosaehwnn
Farm size: Total farm size; in hectares.cofiinsfrteheeemnngeinsaehwnn
pct wheat: Percent of farm allocated to wheat Table 27. Discussion is based on logit results.
Field distance: Distance between home and fields, in kilometers. Of the farmer characteristics considered, for important Owner: 1 =Land was owned, 0 = not owned. variables, education and the index of weather risk have the
Tractor: 1 =Tractor is used, 0 = not used.graetefcso thadpineiinhnigte
Valley: 1 = Valley farm, 0 =foothill or hillside farm,.raetefcso h dpindcsocagn h
SellIs wheat: 1 = Farmer sells wheat. 0 = does not sell any probability of adoption by 10 to 20 percent and 18 to 28
wheat. percent, respectively. The size of the family is consistently
Government: 1 =Farmer sells wheat to government, 0 =does positive but in only one case, that of S. Marmara, is it
not sell to government, important with an increase of five persons increasing the
Fert. Avail.: Availability of fertilizer; 1 = is not difficult; 0 = probability of adoption by about 10 percent. Of the farm
is dif ficult.
Seed avail. Availability of seed; 1 = was easy to obtain, 0 characteristics, topography was the most influential, with
was not, valley farms more likely to adopt by 35 percent in Aegean
Extension: Farmer participation in field days, lectures, and Thrace. Farm ers who sell wheat were from 9 to 18
demonstrations; 1 = yes, 0 =no. percent more likely to adopt than were those who did not.
Dependent variables Of the three government policy variables considered, seed
HYV adoption: Adoption of high-yielding variety; 1 =yes, availability is important in all regions with an effect of 32
0 =no.
Fertilizer: Nutrients applied (N + P205); kg/ha. to 51 points. Sales to government had a notable effect,
ranging from 17 to 21 points, and with t-ratios just at or
above 1.0 in all cases.
Farmer characteristics. As was suggested by the analysis
of the previous chapter, education is an important factor in
determining whether or not a farmer adopts H-YV's. Each
unit increase in education increases the probability of
adoption by from 3 to 5 percent. This is presumably a
techniques were applied to the HYV adoption data, result of an increasing knowledgeability of the value of
In presenting results, logit coefficients have been convert- HYV's, and an increasing ability to make use of this knowed to direct probability estimates so as to be comparable ledge. Family size also had a positive effect on the probato the ordinary least squares estimates. In each case, the bility of adoption, with each additional person increasing coefficients presented are to be interpreted as the change in the probability of adoption by 1 to 2 percent. This was the probability that a farmer will adopt HYV's as a result not anticipated, and we can present no rationale which of a one unit change in the independent variable. could explain this positive (though small) relationship.
We assume that the logit coefficients are the better of Farmer perception of risk, as reflected in the weather risk
the two sets of estimates. Only in the case of South index, had the anticipated effect on adoption in S. Marmara
Marmara are notable differences evident. There it appears and Thrace, but not in Aegean. Given the range of indexes that ordinary least squares underestimates the impact of found among farmers, differences in risk perception (two several of the independent variables, standard deviations) affect the probability of adoption by
Several variables in addition to those discussed in the 28 percent in S. Marmara and by 18 percent in Thrace. previous chapter were included in the following analyses. An inexplicable negative relationship was found in Aegean, A description of all variables is given in Table 26. however, indicating that the more risky the farmer perceived
20




able 27. Regression and logit analyses of the adoption of high-yielding varieties. 3
Aegean S. Marmara Thrace
Variable regression logit regression logit regression logit
Constant -0.17 -0.27 -0.54
Age
coefficient --0.0002 -0.0035 0.0009 0.0025 0.0011 0.0018
t-ratio -0.1 -0.9 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.6
Education
coefficient 0.046 0.050 0.049 0.072 0.035 0.029
t-ratio 2.0 1.7 2.4 2.1 1.2 0.9
Family size
coefficient 0.0098 0.015 0.013 0.021 0.010 0.015
t-ratio 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.9
Membership
coefficient 0.027 0.045 0.076 0.042 0.053 0.044
t-ratio 0.5 0.6 1.1 0.4 0.4 0.4
Radio
coefficient -0.0083 -0.0057 0.0089 0.013 0.0034 0.0017
t-ratio -1.4 -0.7 1.6 1.3 0.6 .3
Off-farm work
coefficient 0.0002 0.0002 -0.0006 -0.0008 0.0000 0.0001
t-ratio 0.5 0.3 -1.2 -0.8 0.2 0.3
Other income
coefficient -0.053 -0.12 -0.048 -0.059 0.075 0.161
t-ratio -0.8 -1.2 -0.7 -0.5 0.6 0.9
Weather risk
coefficient -0.056 -0.18 0.091 0.14 0.37 0.36
t-ratio -0.9 -0.9 3.7 2.4 2.0 1.5
Farm size
coefficient 0.0090 0.0092 0.0005 -0.0019 0.0012 0.0018
t-ratio 1.5 1.4 0.1 -0.3 0.5 0.6
Percent wheat
coefficient -0.0010 -0.0012 -0.0002 0.0004 0.0028 0.0035
t-ratio -0.8 -0.7 -0.1 0.2 1.8 2.0
Owner
coefficient 0.12 0.15 -0.05 0.072 0.085 0.10
t-ratio 1.2 0.7 -0.5 0.4 0.7 0.8
Tractor
coefficient -0.025 -0.022 0.16 0.28 0.098 0.090
t-ratio -0.4 0.3 3.0 2.7 1.3 1.1
Valley
coefficient 0.34 0.34 0.059 0.045 0.35 c
t-ratio 5.3 3.7 0.9 0.4 2.3
Sells wheat
coefficient 0.095 0.089 0.069 0.11 0.18 0.18
t-ratio 1.4 1.0 1.1 1.1 2.2 2.0
Government
coefficient 0.10 0.17 .21 b 0.17 0.19
t-ratio 0.8 0.9 1.1 2.4 2.0
Seed availability
coefficient 0.37 0.33 .41 0.51 0.33 0.32
t-radio 5.4 3.6 7.6 4.9 5.1 4.3
Extension
coefficient 0.19 0.11 -0.07 -0.15 0.11 0.15
t-ratio 2.2 1.2 -1.2 -1.4 1.7 1.8
Number of farms 153 153 176 176 178 178
R2 0.61 0.60 0.36
Chi-square 69.4 86.1 142.0
a/ Since the regression results are from ordinary least squares analysis of a dichotomous dependent variable, the t-ratio cannot be used for tests of hypotheses. The logit coefficients presented are the probability transformation of the logit model coefficients, i.e. the change in probability of adoption given a one-unit change in the independent variable. They are therefore directly comparable to the regression coefficients. The
21




t-ratios for the logit coefficients are those corresponding to the estimated coefficient of the logit model itself.
b/ In South Marmara, all four farmers who sold grain to the government were also adopters, and the logit procedure does not permit estimation of a model including this variable.
c/ In Thrace, all seven valley farmers were also adopters, and the logit procedure does not permit estimation of a model including this variable.
wheat to be, the more more likely he was to adopt HYV's. not in Aegean. The size of the effect in S. Marmara (28
Given that the risk from frost and drought in S. Marmara is percent) is surprisingly large, particularly when compared quite similar to that in Aegean, this difference in farmer to the estimates for the other two regions. As with the behavior is not easily explained, case of the effect of topography mentioned above, if the
Farmer membership in agricultural societies was estimat- tractor variable is correlated with any other variables, the ed to increase the probability of adoption by about 4 estimation procedure may attribute too much effect to the
percent in all three regions, but this is a small effect, not tractor variable and too little to one of the others. The significantly different from zero. The effects of the other other variables which were correlated with tractor use were farmer characteristics, age, radio listening, off-farm work wheat sales (0.25), weather risk (0.25), education (0.21), and other income, were so small or so inconsistently topography (0.17) and farm size (0.15). Of these, only
estimated as to be deemed negligible. the effects of topography and farm size appear to be underFarm characteristics. Each of th e farm characteristics estimated compared with the other regions, so it is possible considered was important in influencing farmer adoption that some of the effect attributed to tractor use in S.
decisions in at least one of the areas. The most important of Marmara is actually attributable to valley topography and these factors was topography in Aegean and Thrace, with larger farm size among the farms using tractors.
flat-land farmers about 35 percent more likely to adopt, The impact of farm ownership was not estimated with
other factors constant. The effect of topography appears to great precision but the effect is to increase the probability be much less in S. Marmara, and since this was not suggested of adoption (by about 10 percent) as expected. The
by the data of Table 11, this result bears some scrutiny, percentage of cropland devoted to,-wheat had no effect on
The simple correlation between adoption and topography the adoption decision except in Thrace, where each adwas about 0.30, which is considerably lower than in the ditional percent of wheat increased the probability of other two regions, but still Substantial. The low estimate adoption by one-third of a percent. Farm size appeared to
of topographic effect in S. Marmara may be due to the be an important factor only in Aegean, where each addivery high correlation between flat land farmers and high tional hectare of farm size increased the probability of
high weather risk indexes (correlation =0.4). If most farm- adoption by nearly 1 percent. While this would have a ers with high (optimistic) weather risk perception live in considerable impact for extremely large farms of 100
the flat lands and if most adopters also live in the flat lands; hectares or so, the distribution of farm sizes in Aegean was it can be very difficult to determine which factor, weather such that a farm at the 98th size percentile (about 17 ha) risk or topography, is most closely related to the decision would be only about 10 percent more likely to adopt than to adopt. Since the estimated effect of weather risk in S. an average sized farm (about 6 ha)l.
Marmara is the largest of the three regions, and the estimat- Government policy. Three factors related to government
ed effect of flat lands is the smallest, it is quite plausible policy were considered: whether or not the farmer sold to that the estimation procedure is overestimating the former the government purchasing agency, whether or not HYV
and underestimating the latter in S. Marmara, due to the seed was easy to obtain, and whether or not the farmer had
correlation between the two. participated in field days, lectures, or demonstrations. Of
The second most influential characteristic of the farm these,seed availability had the most important effect. Those
is whether or not wheat is marketed. Those farmers who sell farmers who said that seed was easy to obtain were 32 to wheat are estimated to be more likely to adopt HYV's by 51 percent more likely to have adopted HYV's than those
9 percent in Aegean, 11 percent in S. Marmara, and 18 who said it was not easy to obtain. This factor appears to
percent in Thrace. This suggests that any market discounts have the greatest impact on farmer decisions of all the
which might exist for HYV's do not adversely affect the variables considered in this analysis. This result should be
decision to adopt, contrary to the inferences tentatively interpreted with some caution, however, since it is in
drawn in the previous chapter (though we have more to general true that seeds will be easier to obtain where the
say in this below). HYV's are well adapted, and more difficult to obtain
Farms with tractors appeared to be significantly more .where they are unadapted. Thus this variable could be
likely to adopt HYV's in S. Marmara and Thrace, though serving as a proxy for the adaptability of the HYV's. This
22




could be happening in the S. Marmara estimates, for ex- Table 28. Regression analyses of the use of fertilizer by
ample, where the effect of seed availability is high relative region. a to other estimates, and the estimated effect ot flat land is relatively low, as previously mentioned. Variable Mediterranean Aegean S. Marmara Thrace
The effect of sales to the government marketing agency Constant 33.0 0.13 30.0 48.0
TMO, was to increase the probability of adoption by about Age
Coefficient 0.05 0.13 0.30 0.53
20 percent in all three regions. This bears out previous t-ratio 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.7
observations that the HYV's are more saleable on the Education
Coefficient 0.09 0.99 3.3 4.8
government market than on the private market. The effect t-ratio 0.1 0.5 1.4 1.5
of extension activities was positive as expected in Aegean Family size (11 percent) and Thrace (15 percent), but was negative in Coefficient 1.6 2.3 0.21 0.40
t-ratio 1.3 2.5 0.2 0.3
S. Marmara. One would not normally expect that participa- Membership
tion in a field day would reduce the probability that a Coefficient 43.0 7.5 8.6 57.5
person would adopt a new variety, yet this conclusion is t-ratio 4.5 1.4 1.1 4.0
Radio
supported by the data of Table 14. Again, however, it is Coefficient 0.83 0.46 0.95 1.9
possible that extension activity has been more intensive in t-ratio 1.1 0.8 1.5 3.2
areas where the HYV's were less-well adapted, while other Off-farm work
Coefficient 0.06 0.041 0.011 0.07
variables in the analysis (such as topography) have failed t-ratio 1.2 1.0 0.2 1.7
to reflect differences between these areas. Other income
Summary. The results of the multivariate analysis of Coefficient 12.0 -18.0 1.9 -15.0
t-ratio 1.4 2.8 0.3 1.0
HYV adoption decisions have -ihown that topography, Weather risk
presumably representing the adaptability of the HYV's, Coefficient 12.0 0.29 0.43 64.0
seed availability and government purchasing activities have t-ratio 2.0 0.1 0.1 3.2
Farm size
been the most important variables affecting the adoption Coefficient 0.19 0.045 0.57 0.12
decision among the farmers studied. In addition, education, t-ratio 0.9 0.1 1.9 0.4
family size, wheat sales, and land ownership had smaller Percent wheat
Coefficient 0.38 0.06 3.6 -27.0
but consistently estimated effects in the expected direction. t-ratio 2.7 0.5 0.3 1.5
In two of the areas, the effect of perceived weather risk had Field dist. an important effect on the adoption decision, and two Coefficient 0.06 0.65 0.99 0.33
t-ratio 0.2 2.6 3.2 0.8
others, participation in extension activities had a signifi- Owner cant impact in increasing the probability that a farmer Coefficient 0.53 3.2 0.67 8.4
would adopt HYV's. The estimates of the effects of several t-ratio 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.6
Tractor
of the variables in S. Marmara were inconsistent with esti- Coefficient 39.0 0.50 4.1 4.1
mates for the other areas, perhaps due to correlation among t-ratio 2.4 0.1 0.7 0.5
the variables or to poor specification of the variables in this Valley Coefficient -13.0 4.5 3.3 32.0
area. t-ratio 1.6 0.7 0.4 1.8
Sells wheat
Coefficient 0.50 6.2 24.0 23.0
t-ratio 0.1 0.9 3.3 2.7
Factors affecting application of fertilizers. Fert. Avail.
Coefficient -33.0 11.0 5.5 12.0
Again, the general nature of the results are presented first, t-ratio 4.0 2.0 0.8 1.5
Extension
followed by more detailed discussion. A variable is said Coefficient 12.0 4.7 26.0 4.5
to be having an important effect if it is estimated with t-ratio 1.5 0.6 4.0 0.6
reasonable accuracy and if its effect on fertilizer use is HYV adoption Coefficient 15.0 27.0 21.0 28.0
notable. Reasonable accuracy in estimation is defined here t-ratio 1.2 3.7 2.7 3.3
as a t-ratio of at least 1.0 in absolute value. A notable R2 0.43 0.36 0.33
effect is defined as an increase of 15 kilos of plant nutrients
per ectre hen(a) cotinousindeendnt arible a/Fertilizer use is expressed in kg of N and P2O)s per ha. per hectare When (a) a continuous independent variable changes from its value at the 15th percentile to its value at the 85th percentile in its sample distribution, or (b) a dichotomous variable is increased from a value of zero to a value of 1.0. Regression results for all four regions are given in Table 28. Mediterranean and Thrace regions, where fertilizer use is
Of the farmer characteristics considered, membership in greatest, membership is important in the sense described
agricultural societies is the only variable which consistently above. Listening to the radio is important in three regions has a t-ratio greater than one. Moreover, in the cases of but, awkwardly, not in a consistent way. Age has appro23




priate t-ratios in three cases but associated quantity changes Table 16 seem more reliable than those of Table 5. This are small. conclusion puts in doubt the negative sign for education in
Characteristics of the farm had no consistently important Thrace, seen in Table 28.
effects. Distance to the field is important in two cases Farm characteristics. Six variables describe character"Sells wheat" appears to be important in South Marmara istics of the farm. Two of these, tractor and topography,
and in Thrace. are important in one region and with the expected positive
Of the three policy related variables, only fertilizer sign. Distance to fields is important in two regions but
availability has appropriate t-ratios in three regions; even with different signs. so, the signs are not consistent and in only one case does For each of the four regions use of tractor for plowing
the increase in fertilizer use associated with changing the and rates of plant nutrients applied are positively related. value of the independent variable from zero to 1.0 exceed Only in one case is the t-ratio greater than 1.0. Topography
15 kilograms of nutrients per hectare. also shows consistency among regions but there, for three
Adoption of HYV's is consistently important, even in regions, the sign of the estimated coefficient is negative,
the Mediterranean region where some 95 percent of the the reverse of what was expected. This result is consistent
farmers had adopted HYV's. It should be acknowledged with the data of Table 16. Distance to field is also consistthat results from models with HYV's are less easy to inter- ent but is positive in all cases, the reverse of what was pret than were this variable not included because HYV use expected.
itself is held to be a function of the remaining included Tenure status tends to have a consistent sign with
independent variables. nutrient use positively related to ownership in three of the
Farmer characteristics. Of the eight variables describing four regions. Never, however, is the t-ratio in excess of 0.6 farmer characteristics, only three ever manifest importance in absolute value. in the sense described above, viz, membership-in Medi- For each of the remaining variables, farm size and percent
terranean and Thrace, radio-in South Marmara and 'Thrace, of farm area in wheat, two regions show positive coefficients,
and weather risk-in Mediterranean and Thrace. E ach two show negative coefficients. This suggests that the
of the estimated coefficients for membership has the ex- positive effects of farm size on fertilizer use in Table 16
pected sign, which is to say that membership in a society is are due to the other factors which are not controlled there associated with greater use of plant nutrients. The size of but are considered explicitly in the regression analysis. the effect in this analysis is smaller than is implied by the For two of the regions, selling wheat is an important
data of Table 18. In the case of radio, the signs of the variable and in both cases the estimated coefficient has
relevant coefficients are negative in tvvo~regions, the op- the expected positive sign. For all four regions the sign posite of what was expected. of the estimated coefficient is positive.
For two regions the estimated coefficients for age Government policy. Fertilizer availability, which emerges
had t-ratios in excess of 1.0 and each had the expected from asking the farmer whether or not he found fertilizer
sign. In no case, however, is the impact on quantity of easy to obtain, is positively related to fertilizer application
nutrients a large one, in three regions. In only one region, Mediterranean, is the
Off-farm work is the only remaining farmer variable variable important but the sign is negative, indicating
for which signs tend to be consistent among regions and that difficulty in acquiring fertilizer is positively related
with expectations. For three regions, the estimated coef- to its use.
ficients have a positive sign. For the extension variable, three regions show the exOne variable manifests consistency among regions but pected positive sign. The variable is important in only
its sign is contrary to what was expected. For all but the one region, South Marmara.
Mediterranean region the sign for the estimated coefficient Summary. In a general way the regression analyses of
of other income is negative and it was hypothesized to be Chapter V conform quite well with the tables of Chapter IV.
positive. A rationable for this result is not evident. In only two cases, farm size and membership, do coefFor three variables-education, family size, and weather ficients of the regression models depart notably from exrisk-the signs of the estimated coefficients are half positive pectations based on the simpler tables in Chapter IV. and half negative. Only weather risk is ever important in Only five of the variables are entirely consistent from
the sense defined, in both cases positively. It might be region to region and with expectations as regards signs;
argued that the negative sign estimated for education in membership, field distance, sells wheat, tractor and use of
Thrace is consistent with expectations, given the data of H YV's. On the other hand, six variables-farm size, radio
Table 5 which suggests that high rates of fertilizer applica- education, weather risk, family size, percent in wheat-show tion don't pay for farmers there. Table 5, which is based great inconsistency with half being positive and half negative.
on farmer's reported yields, is not consistent with the rates Of the remaining seven variables, other income and topograof fertilizer application reported for Thrace in Table 16. phy show tendencies contrary to those expected.
As it seems likely that reported rates of application are No region stands out as peculiar, which was the case for
more nearly correct than are reported yields, the data of South Marmara in the analysis of HYV adoption. Even in
24




terms of the number of t-ratios with absolute values great- average application of plant nutrients. Even within regions, er than one, there is startling consistency with no region this relationship holds up. Other variables with a notable having notably more or notably less such estimates. and consistent association with fertilizer use are availability
What is disconcerting in all of this is the size of the of fertilizer and membership in agricultural societies. Each coefficients of determination. Within regions the models says something about access to fertilizers or about access to explained only a small part of the variation, from 33 to 43 credit or both. percent. While such results are not uncommon in work of
this kind, it nonetheless suggests that the prudent will he
cautious in drawing conclusions. In better specified models,
it might well occur that variables with little importance
here would be found important. Notes
Having recognized the constraint imposed on inter- 1. Marc Nerlove, and S. James Press. 1973. Univariare and
pretation by the low coefficients of determination, it can Mulrivareare Log-Linear Logistic Models, The Rand Corporation, still be said that regional differences in fertilizer use are Santa Monica, California. notable, tending to following the pattern of the adoption 2. A more dlesireable econometric approach would be to of HYV's, i.e. ranking regions by percent of land in HYV's estimate the fertilizer decision equation and the hybrid decision is entirely consistent with ranking them in terms of equation together using simultaneous equation techniques.
VI. SUMMARY OF FINDINGS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS OF THE STUDY
Wheat is the most important single element in the diet of policy, and to examine the extension system, credit and the Turkish family. Annual per capita consumption varies input supply situation, and market conditions as they between 160 and 225 kilograms of grain. If the present per relate to the adoption of new wheat technology. capita consumption is to be maintained, wheat production To carry out these objectives, the study draws heavily
must increase by 2.6 percent per annum just to equal on data obtained through regional samples consisting of
population growth rate. Moreover, this will have to be 800 farms with different characteristics. The regions under
accomplished through yield increases rather than area study are: Mediterranean, Aegean, and South Marmara, all
expansion since no unused land is available in the country. spring wheat regions, and Thrace, a winter wheat region.
With the object of obtaining higher yields per unit In this section we review the findings of this study, point
area, the government of Turkey introduced in 1967 to the out policy implications and suggest recommendations for coastal regions new packages of wheat production techniques the attainment of further diffusion of the new wheat consisting of high yielding seed, chemical fertilizer, weed technology and of higher levels of wheat production. control, and several other agronomic practices. The new
seeds came from Mexico, Italy, and Russia. They respond
well to fertilizer and other production practices and produce Findings high yields under favorable climatic conditions.
The purpose of this study was to look closely at the What follows are general comments. More specific stateadoption of the new wheat technology, emphasizing high ments are found in Chapter 5.
yielding seeds and chemical fertilizers. The specific Between 1967 and 1972, the HYV's covered an area
objectives of the study were to see to what extent farmers of about 900,000 hectares in the three coastal spring regions, have adopted to the new wheat seeds, applied chemical Mediterranean, Aegean and South Marrnara. This is around fertilizers to wheat and followed other agronomic practices 65 percent of the land planted in wheat (including durum recommended to them, to identify and quantify association wheat) in these three regions and corresponds to 46 perbetween adoption of HYV's and fertilizer and selected cent of all wheat fields in the regions. In Thrace, the
factors related to the farmer, the farm and government winter wheat region, HYV's are estimated to have covered
25







occur. Modifications may involve replacement of the tion. Therefore more and wider membership in agriculweaker varieties, and alterations of some of the recoin- tural organization, such as agricultural supply cooperatives, mendations to fit farmers' conditions. It is reasonable to might have a positive impact on adoption of seeds and use believe that the State's leadership and constant motiva- of other inputs. tion were the overall pushing mechanism for the successful Extension services can be strengthened. More and
diffusion observed in the relative short period of 6 years. persuasive extension visits, demonstration plots, field days, This should continue to be so with a renewed spirit for lectures can have an important bearing on the rate of
the years ahead for further progress. adoption. However, the whole system of extension seems
There are ttill much potential gains from the new to be under-utilized. It can be mobilized through the
wheat technology from which the country can benefit, provision of resources and motivation. It should be emphaFirst, the presently available wheat area in the coastal sized also that extension workers should be supplied by regions is more than 1.7 million hectares. Contrasted the research workers and scientists with the precise into this the HYV's had covered 0.9 million hectares of land, formation about the new wheat technology before they Therefore, further area expansion of HYV's is feasible, are sent to the farmers.
Second, yields expected from HYV's may run as high as 5 to The situation in the market can affect adoption. Farm6 tons per hectare. Turkish farmers have realized 40 to ers should be given the feeling that they are guaranteed
60 percent of this potential on the average. With appro- easily accessible markets for their wheat. This could be priate farming practices farmers can also reach 4 to 5 tons done by increasing the number of state purchase offices of grain per hectare. and by locating them properly in their regions.
Research must be given priority in the overall efforts The farmer should be supplied constantly and periodicalby the state. Research in breeding for new varieties can ly with certified seeds of reliable quality. Constraints on be speeded up through provision of more resources and the timely distribution of good seeds and seed credit should
motivation. Along with this, agronomic research, relatively be removed. Perhaps one of the alternatives would be to neglected in the recent past, should be given more emphasis leave the production of seed to state farms and contracted than before. While the objectives with breeding should farm ers as before, but leaving the seed control and distribucontinue to aim higher at yields with disease resistance, tion entirely in the hands of farmers' organizations. In frost escape and yield stability, the quality factor must addition, state farms located in the coastal regions should also receive equal recognition. The new seeds must appeal be equipped and directed to provide constant flows for to farmers' preferences in terms of color, size and bread farmers' use. making quality. This is especially important for small Any increase in fertilizer use on wheat appears to be
farmers who produce for the family's consumption. Further- made difficult by economic reasons. With a shortage of more, varieties to fit conditions prevailing at specific loca- fertilizer supply, farmers as well as the country as a whole tions are needed. Wide differences in adoption rates of would seek ways to use fertilizer economically. Wheat
HYV seeds among regions and subregions clearly indicate then has less chances of receiving fertilizer than cash crops
that agro-climatic conditions existing in different locations in coastal regions given 1975 relative prices and productivity are decisive factors along with others on the extent of gains. However, as farmers are induced to use the complete
adoption and diffusion. Thus it seems an appropriate package of the new wheat technology and as output prices
strategy in biological research to develop several varieties are balanced by the State, then wheat may well become an for the several different kinds of regions. effective competitor for fertilizer against other crops. In
To make use of the maximum yield potential from the any event, the overall supply of fertilizer will have to be innew seeds, timely and proper seeding is necessary. In creased to reduce the competitive use among several crops.
addition, adequate amounts of fertilizer should be used Again, as in the case with seeds, membership in agriculalong with weed and disease control. Seeded must be tural organizations would help increase fertilizer use in
prepared properly and drill use should be encouraged. All wheat. Perhaps efficient and timely distribution of fertilizer these practices have, however, their costs and benefits could be maintained by assigning the job of distribution to
which must be determined accurately. Agronomic research, farmers' organizations with some control by the state. therefore, should aim for recommendations on rates, depth, Simple calculations indicate that if all traditional vanieand time of seeding and fertilization. Moreover, research ties are replaced by HYV's and if modest yield level of 2 to should supply information about the effects on yield levels 2.5 tons can be reached, then the three coastal regions of different topographies, number and timing of irrigations, alone would supply almost one third of the nation's needs weed control, drill use for seeding and fertilization, from the existing amount of land, i.e. without pressure on
As the findings suggest, farmer's membership in an agri- lands planted to other crops in the regions. To achieve cultural organization is associated with higher rates of adop- those aims will require new motivation and leadership.
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