• TABLE OF CONTENTS
HIDE
 Front Cover
 Title Page
 Abstract
 Table of Contents
 List of Tables
 List of Figures
 Acknowledgement
 Executive summary
 1. Introduction
 2. Haryana state and Karnal...
 3. Trends in production, area,...
 4. Trends in input use
 5. Sustainability issues and sources...
 6. Synthesis
 References
 Back Cover
 Copyright






Group Title: rice-wheat system in Haryana
Title: The rice-wheat system in Haryana
CITATION THUMBNAILS PAGE IMAGE ZOOMABLE
Full Citation
STANDARD VIEW MARC VIEW
Permanent Link: http://ufdc.ufl.edu/UF00078078/00001
 Material Information
Title: The rice-wheat system in Haryana input-output trends and sources of future productivity growth
Physical Description: vii, 52, 2 p. : ill. ,maps ; 27 cm.
Language: English
Creator: Chaudhary, M. K
Harrington, L. W ( Larry W )
Publisher: C.C.S. Haryana Agricultural University, Regional Research Station
International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center
Place of Publication: Karnal Haryana India
México D.F
Publication Date: 1993
 Subjects
Subject: Cropping systems -- India -- Haryana   ( lcsh )
Rice -- India -- Haryana   ( lcsh )
Wheat -- India -- Haryana   ( lcsh )
Genre: bibliography   ( marcgt )
non-fiction   ( marcgt )
Spatial Coverage: India
 Notes
Bibliography: Includes bibliographical references (p. 53-54).
Statement of Responsibility: M.K. Chaudhary and L.W. Harrington.
General Note: "Sustainability of the rice-wheat system in South Asia."--Cover.
 Record Information
Bibliographic ID: UF00078078
Volume ID: VID00001
Source Institution: University of Florida
Rights Management: All rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier: oclc - 64737297
isbn - 968692311X

Table of Contents
    Front Cover
        Front Cover
    Title Page
        Title Page 1
    Abstract
        Abstract
    Table of Contents
        Page i
    List of Tables
        Page ii
    List of Figures
        Page iii
        Page iv
    Acknowledgement
        Page v
    Executive summary
        Page vi
        Page vii
        Page viii
    1. Introduction
        Page 1
        Page 2
    2. Haryana state and Karnal region
        Page 3
        Page 4
        Page 5
        Page 6
        Page 7
        Page 8
        Page 9
        Page 10
    3. Trends in production, area, and yield for foodgrains in Haryana and Karnal
        Page 11
        Page 12
        Page 13
        Page 14
        Page 15
        Page 16
        Page 17
        Page 18
        Page 19
        Page 20
    4. Trends in input use
        Page 21
        Page 22
        Page 23
        Page 24
        Page 25
        Page 26
        Page 27
        Page 28
        Page 29
        Page 30
        Page 31
        Page 32
        Page 33
    5. Sustainability issues and sources of future productivity growth
        Page 34
        Page 35
        Page 36
        Page 37
        Page 38
        Page 39
        Page 40
        Page 41
        Page 42
        Page 43
        Page 44
        Page 45
        Page 46
        Page 47
        Page 48
        Page 49
    6. Synthesis
        Page 50
        Page 51
        Page 52
    References
        Page 53
        Page 54
    Back Cover
        Back Cover
    Copyright
        Copyright
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THE RICE-WHEAT SYSTEM IN HARYANA:
INPUT-OUTPUT TRENDS AND
SOURCES OF FUTURE PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH

M.K. Chaudhary and L W. Harrington*






















* M.K. Chaudhary is with the C. C. S. Haryana Agricultural University, Regional
Research Station, Karnal, Haryana, India; L.W. Harrington is with the International Maize
and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Mexico. The views expressed in this paper
are the authors' and do not necessarily reflect policies of their respective institutions.


















Correct citation: Chaudhary, M.K., and L.W. Harrington. 1993. The Rice Wheat System in
Haryana: Input-Output Trends and Sources of Future Productivity Growth. Mexico, D.F.:
C.C.S. Haryana Agricultural University Regional Research Station (Karnal) and CIMMYT.

Abstract: This study analyzes available secondary data for Haryana (particularly from
Karnal region, which encompasses the districts of Karnal, Kurukshetra, Panipat, and
Kaithal) to examine hypotheses developed through a diagnostic survey of the rice-wheat
cropping system in the region. Trends in production, area, and yields of rice, wheat, and
other foodgrains are estimated, along with trends in input levels and input use efficiency
for rice and wheat. The implications of these trends are discussed in light of the survey
findings, especially with regard to future sources of productivity growth in foodgrain
production in Haryana. The analysis reveals that for some time expanded foodgrain
production has depended on increased rice and wheat production in Karnal. However, the
expansion in rice and wheat area has halted, growth in rice productivity has slowed, and
historical sources of productivity growth appear to have exhausted much of their
potential. There is also reason to believe that sustained productivity of the rice-wheat
system may be compromised by several factors, including groundwater depletion, a
possible decline in soil fertility, and increasing populations of insects, diseases, and
weeds. Furthermore, rice and wheat production are becoming less profitable over time.
As a consequence, alternative crops (e.g., sugarcane) may increase in importance. An
increased diversity in crops grown by farmers could help ameliorate some of the threat to
natural resource quality and system productivity. However, the data presented in this
report, combined with some of the findings of the diagnostic survey, indicate that
continued rapid expansion of foodgrain production in Haryana is unlikely.

AGROVOC Descriptors: RICE;WHEAT; CROP YIELD;
DOMESTIC PRODUCTION; PRODUCTION DATA;
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS; HARYANA

AGRIS Category Codes: F01
E10;F08

Dewey Classification: 338.163


968-6923-11-X


ISBN:











CONTENTS


Page

ii Tables
iii Figures
v Acknowledgments
vi Executive Summary

1 1. Introduction
1 The Collaborative Rice-Wheat Research Program
2 Objectives

3 2. Haryana State and Karnal District
3 Introduction
5 Area and Population
6 Land and Soils
7 Climate
7 Irrigation
9 Crops and Cropping Patterns

11 3. Trends in Production, Area, and Yield for Foodgrains in
Haryana and Karnal
11 Production Trends
15 Area Trends

21 4. Trends in Input Use
21 Modern Varieties of Rice and Wheat
23 Fertilizer
26 Irrigation
29 Mechanization
30 Pesticides and Herbicides
31 Supporting Policies, Infrastructure, and Services

34 5. Sustainability Issues and Sources of Future Productivity Growth
34 Further Expansion in Rice and Wheat Area
37 Further Improvements in Rice and Wheat Yields

50 6. Synthesis


53 References










TABLES


Page

3 Table 1. Wheat area and production for major wheat-growing states, as a percent of all-
India total, 1991.

14 Table 2. Annual growth rates in area, yield, and production for wheat, rice, coarse grains,
and pulses, Haryana and Karnal, 1965-66 to 1990-91.

17 Table 3. Yields and yield growth rates for rice and wheat in Haryana and Karnal.

23 Table 4. Range of prices of MV and basmati rice (unmilled) in Traori market (Karnal
District), Rs/kg, 1987-88 to 1991-92.

25 Table 5. Growth rates of fertilizer use in Haryana and Karnal, 1966-67 to 1990-91 (%/yr).

28 Table 6. Total number of tubewells per 1,000 ha of cultivated area, Haryana and Karnal,
1966-67 and 1989-90.

44 Table 7. Fertilizer prices and nutrient/grain price ratios, before and after the withdrawal
of subsidies in 1991-92.

46 Table 8. Percentage of wheat area in different districts of Haryana State infested with
Phalaris minor (1980-81).












Page

4 Figure 2.1.


Figure 2.2.

Figure 2.3.

Figure 2.4.

Figure 2.5.

Figure 2.6.


Figure 2.7.

Figure 3.1.

Figure 3.2.

Figure 3.3.

Figure 3.4.

Figure 3.5.

Figure 3.6.

Figure 3.7.

Figure 3.8.

Figure 3.9.

Figure 3.10.

Figure 3.11.

Figure 3.12.

Figure 4.1.

Figure 4.2.

Figure 4.3.

Figure 4.4.

Figure 4.5.


FIGURES


Location of Haryana State in India and of rice-wheat zones in Haryana
State (1991-92).

Cultivated area in Karnal, 1965-66 to 1989-90.

Population trends in Karnal (urban vs. rural) over three decades.

Average monthly rainfall and temperature, Haryana, 1970-90.

Total annual rainfall, Haryana, 1970-90.

Irrigated area in Haryana and Karnal as percent of net sown area, 1965-66
to 1989-90.

Harvested area, major crops in Karnal, 1989-90.

Area and production trends for foodgrains, Haryana, 1966-91.

Foodgrain area trends, Haryana, 1965-66 to 1990-91.

Foodgrain production trends, Haryana, 1965-66 to 1990-91.

Foodgrain production trends, Karnal, 1965-66 to 1990-91.

Production growth rates for rice and wheat, Haryana and Karnal.

Trends in kharifcrop area, Haryana, 1965-66 to 1991-92.

Trends in rabi crop area, Haryana, 1965-66 to 1990-91.

Growth rates, rice and wheat area, 1965-79 to 1980-90.

Trends in rice yields, Haryana and Karnal,1965-66 to 1990-91.

Wheat yield trends, Haryana and Karnal, 1965-66 to 1990-91.

Kharifcrop yield trends, Haryana, 1965-66 to 1990-91.

Rabi season crop yields, Haryana, 1965-66 to 1990-91.

Percentage area covered by MVs of four crops, Haryana, 1966-89.

Percentage area covered by MVs of three crops, Karnal, 1970-90.

Fertilizer consumption (NPK), Haryana (all crops), 1967-90.

Fertilizer use rates, all crops, Haryana and Karnal, 1967-90.

Fertilizer use rates, rice and wheat, Haryana and Karnal, 1966-90.








Figure 4.6.

Figure 4.7.

Figure 4.8.

Figure 4.9.


Figure 4.10.

Figure 4.11.

Figure 5.1.

Figure 5.2.

Figure 5.3.


Figure 5.4.

Figure 5.5.

Figure 5.6.


Figure 5.7.

Figure 5.8.

Figure 5.9.

Figure 5.10.

Figure 5.11.


48 Figure 5.12.


49 Figure 5.13.


Irrigated area in Haryana, 1965-66 to 1989-90.

Irrigated area in Haryana, by source, 1965-66 to 1989-90.

Area irrigated by tubewell as a percent of net irrigated area, 1966-90.

Growth rates for area irrigated by tubewell, Haryana and Karnal, 1966-79
and 1980-90.

Number of tractors, Haryana, 1967-91.

Rice and wheat procurement prices, Haryana, 1977-92.

Haryana: Components of production growth, 1966-79 and 1980-90.

Karnal: Components of production growth. 1966-79 and 1980-90.

Water table (in meters) fluctuation map of Karnal and Kurukshetra
Districts (area under study), 1974-91.

Yield per kilogram of fertilizer applied, 1968-90.

Yield per kilogram of fertilizer applied, 1969-90.

Yield increase per additional kilogram of fertilizer applied, 1970-80 and
1980-90.

Trends related to fertilizer use and efficiency, Karnal wheat, 1968-90.

Number of large animals in Haryana, 1981 and 1991.

Pesticide consumption in Haryana, 1971-91.

Percent of rice and wheat area in Haryana treated with herbicide, 1981-90.

Costs and net returns, MV rice production in Karnal, 1975-89 (five-year
averages).

Costs and net returns, wheat production in Karnal, 1975-89 (five-year
averages).

Costs and net returns, wheat production in Karnal, 1975-89 (five-year
averages).




V




ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

The authors are grateful to many people who helped make this study possible. We thank
Derek Byerlee and Robert Tripp of the CIMMYT Economics Program for offering M.K.
Chaudhary the Visiting Scientist Fellowship that enabled much of this work to be written
up, and we also thank Haryana Agricultural University for granting M.K. Chaudhary
leave to take the fellowship.

During the initial stages of this research, Michael Morris provided valuable comments
and assistance with the analysis. Several reviewers offered useful suggestion for
improving the final report, especially Tony Fischer, Martien van Nieuwkoop, Daniel
Buckles, Miguel L6pez-Pereira, Peter Hobbs, Derek Byerlee, Rob Tripp and Kelly
Cassaday. Any remaining errors are the authors'.









EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This study analyzes available secondary data for Haryana (particularly from Karnal
region, which encompasses the districts of Karnal, Kurukshetra, Panipat, and Kaithal) to
examine hypotheses developed through a diagnostic survey of the rice-wheat cropping
system in the region. Trends in production, area, and yields of rice, wheat, and other
foodgrains are estimated, along with trends in input levels and input use efficiency for
rice and wheat. The implications of these trends are discussed, especially with regard to
future sources of productivity growth in foodgrain production in Haryana.

Karnal region occupies 17.5% of Haryana State's geographical area. Cropping intensity in
the region has increased at an annual rate of 3.5% from 1965-66 to 1989-90. The region
has also seen a major increase in irrigated area in the past two and a half decades. Nearly
one-third of the state's wheat production comes from this region, which accounts for 62%
of the total state rice area and contributes about the same proportion of rice production.
About 90% of the rice grown there is followed by wheat, with the remaining 10%
followed by berseem clover, potato, sunflower, sugarcane, and other crops. Rice and
wheat together cover 80% of Karal region total cropped area. After rice-wheat, other
cropping patterns include rice-berseem, rice-toria-berseem-wheat/sunflower, sugarcane-
ratoon, and various rotations featuring vegetables and fodder crops.

Foodgrain production in Karnal region increased by 5.7% per year between 1965-66 and
1989-90, entirely because of expanding rice and wheat production. Over the same period,
rice production grew by 8.0% annually and wheat by 6.3%. In contrast, production of
coarse grains and pulses dwindled. However, growth in the production of rice and, to a
lesser extent, of wheat has slowed considerably in recent years. Between 1980 and 1990,
rice production grew by only 1% per year.

Trends in production can be disaggregated into underlying trends in area and yield. In
Karal region, area under rice and wheat increased rapidly, whereas area under coarse
grains diminished considerably. Given the extent to which rice and wheat have replaced
other foodgrains, it is unlikely that growth in the area sown to these two crops will
continue to be a major source of increased rice and wheat. As for yields, rice yields grew
at a rate of 5.9% from 1965-66 to 1979-80, but declined at 0.2% between 1980-81 and
1990-91. One possible explanation for this trend is that basmati rice has expanded as a
proportion of total rice area. In contrast, wheat yield trends in Karnal have remained
strongly positive, growing at a rate of 2.9% between 1965-66 and 1979-80, and by 4.6%
from 1980-81 to 1990-91.

Higher yields of rice and wheat were achieved through widespread adoption of modern
varieties (MVs) of rice and wheat along with other inputs, especially fertilizer and
irrigation water. Virtually all farmers in Haryana now use MVs of wheat. However, in
1990 the area sown to MVs of rice was less than 70%, because farmers increasingly have
turned to basmati rice, which commands higher prices in the market and requires lower





vii


input rates than MVs. As for fertilizer, wheat and rice together consume nearly 71% of all
fertilizer used in Haryana, and about 88% of that used in Karnal. Analysis of secondary
data indicates that fertilizer productivity for rice has declined (although the effect of the
shift to basmati on fertilizer productivity is unclear). Fertilizer productivity for wheat has
not declined, despite ever-higher application rates. However, given current high rates of
fertilizer application, fertilizer use rates are likely to grow more slowly in the future. The
area under irrigation has expanded to such an extent that it, too, is unlikely to grow much
further. It is important to note that this agricultural development strategy based on MVs,
irrigation, and fertilizer would have been less effective without complementary product
price policies, expansion in credit and input supplies, development of markets and rural
infrastructure, and continued emphasis on research and extension.

Despite these achievements, accumulating evidence, including some of the trends
reviewed above, suggests that historical sources of productivity growth (area expansion,
higher yields, increased use of fertilizer, and irrigation) have exhausted much of their
potential. Moreover, there is reason to believe that the natural resource base of the rice-
wheat cropping system is being degraded. Sustained productivity of the rice-wheat system
is threatened by groundwater depletion, leading to high pumping expenses or, at worst,
collapse of the system. Although water-use efficiency in rice could be improved, price
incentives are not yet in place to make these technologies attractive to farmers.

The data used in the analysis are not well suited to assessing whether soil fertility is
declining in the region, but it is possible to show that legumes have become less
important in local cropping systems while continuous rice-wheat has become more
common. Farm surveys suggest that the use of compost and farm yard manure has
declined, particularly in rice and wheat fields. It is important to ascertain if declining soil
fertility is an issue in Haryana and Karnal.

The data available do not permit any firm conclusions to be drawn, but it appears that
insects, diseases, and weeds may be increasing in importance in Karnal region. These
problems must be controlled (preferably in environmentally sound ways) to maintain or
improve rice and wheat system productivity. The weed Phalaris minor is of particular
concern, especially given the prospect that this weed may be becoming tolerant to the
primary herbicide used for its control.

Finally, rice and wheat production are becoming less profitable over time. As a
consequence, alternative crops (e.g., sugarcane) may increase in importance. An increased
diversity in crops grown by farmers could help ameliorate some of the threat to natural
resource quality and system productivity. However, the data presented in this report,
combined with some of the findings of the diagnostic survey, indicate that continued
rapid expansion of foodgrain production in Haryana is unlikely.









1. INTRODUCTION


The rice-wheat cropping pattern extends over approximately 12 million ha in South Asia,
covering large areas in Pakistan, India, Nepal, and Bangladesh. Millions of farm families
rely on this cropping pattern for a considerable proportion of their income and
employment. Technical change introduced through the Green Revolution fostered the
development of this system, increased its productivity, helped expand farmers' incomes,
reduced food costs for low-income consumers, generated employment for landless
laborers, and indirectly stimulated rural small industry.

Evidence is accumulating, however, to suggest that the gains from the Green Revolution
are being eroded. The expansion of rice and wheat area has nearly halted, growth in rice
and wheat productivity is thought by many to have has slowed, and historical sources of
productivity growth appear to be exhausting their potential. Moreover, there is reason to
believe that the natural resource base devoted to the rice-wheat cropping pattern is being
degraded. Declining soil fertility, organic matter loss, and water-induced land
degradation all appear to be important factors. This combination of resource degradation
and lack of future sources of productivity growth is cause for concern (see Byerlee,
Harrington, and Sharif 1991; Macklin and Rao 1991; Rosegrant and Pingali 1991).

The Collaborative Rice-Wheat Research Program
In 1989, a collaborative rice-wheat research program was initiated that features the
participation of national programs from Bangladesh, India, Nepal, and Pakistan; the
International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT); and the International
Rice Research Institute (IRRI). Funding for national program rice-wheat research
activities comes from national program core budgets, as well as the Asian Development
Bank (ADB), US Agency for International Development, and the World Bank. The ADB
has also supported IRRI's participation, while both CIMMYT and IRRI have allocated
funds from their core budgets to rice-wheat collaborative research. At present, the rice-
wheat collaboration features nine research study areas or sites, two in Bangladesh, three
in India, two in Nepal, and two in Pakistan.1 Sites were chosen to reflect different
agroclimatic and socioeconomic conditions, e.g., hillside vs. terai (lowland)
environments, areas with and without problems of water-induced land degradation, areas
with and without problems of water control, high- vs. low-input areas, and so on.

The rice-wheat collaboration features a wide array of research activities. Diagnostic
surveys have been conducted in most rice-wheat sites (e.g., Hobbs et al. 1990, Harrington
et al. 1993a). These surveys, which made use of the techniques of rapid rural appraisal
and participatory rural appraisal, have enabled researchers to: describe rice and wheat

1 In this report, the terms "site" and "study area" are used interchangeably; "site" should not be understood
in the limited sense of the location of a particular experiment. Collaborative rice-wheat research sites
include: Chuadanga, Dinajpur (Bangladesh); Pantnagar, Faizabad, Karnal (India); Bhairahawa, Naldung
(Nepal); Larkhana, Kala Shah Khaku (Pakistan). Additional sites may be added in India as World Bank
support expands for rice-wheat research in that country.








production practices and problems: identify and describe near-term and longer-term rice-
wheat system problems; rank problems in order of importance, using weighted scoring
models; unravel chains of causes associated with the more important problems (often
leading to system-level factors, such as crop-livestock interactions, forest management
practices, and water pricing policies); and suggest specific follow-up activities.

Collaboration has not been restricted to diagnostic surveys, however. Collaborative
activities have also included strategic "upstream" research on land management issues
(including the establishment of long-term trials), researcher- and farmer-managed on-
farm research (e.g., on zero tillage alternatives for establishing wheat after rice), and
analysis of secondary data. This paper presents results of an analysis of secondary time-
series data relevant to the rice-wheat areas of Haryana State, India, for the purpose of
placing diagnostic survey results for that site in a broader context.


Objectives
The Districts of Karnal and Kurukshetra, Haryana State, India, comprise a site or study
area for collaborative rice-wheat research. This site was selected because it represents the
irrigated, mechanized, high-input rice-wheat production environment typical of
northwestern India. Apart from CIMMYT and IRRI, institutions collaborating in research
at this site include Haryana Agricultural University, which maintains research stations at
Karnal (Regional Research Station) and Kaul (Rice Research Station); the Wheat Project
Directorate; and the Central Soil Salinity Research Institute. Both of the latter are located
in Karnal.

The primary objective of the present work is to analyze and present available secondary
data (especially time-series data) from Haryana (particularly from Karnal and
Kurukshetra Districts).2 In doing so, this paper aims to examine hypotheses developed as
part of the diagnostic survey conducted in the same area (Harrington et al. 1993b).
Specific objectives include the following:
* estimate trends in the production, area, and yields of rice, wheat, and other foodgrains
in the study area and in Haryana;
* estimate trends in input levels and input use efficiency for rice and wheat at the site
and in Haryana;
* examine sustainability issues and future sources of productivity growth for rice and
wheat in the study area;
* ascertain the extent to which the Karnal research site is representative of rice-wheat
areas of Haryana State; and
* discuss suggestions for research priorities and policy alternatives.


2 This study uses several sources of secondary data. The main sources include Statistical Abstracts of
Haryana (various years); the Statistical Profile of Haryana Agriculture, compiled by Veena Manocha
and D. S. Nandal; Fertilizer Statistics 1991, published by the Fertilizer Association of India; and other
data made available by the Department of Agriculture, Government of Haryana, Chandigarh, and Karnal.
Other sources are noted as they appear in the text, tables, and figures; if no source appears, the
information was derived from the Statistical Abstracts.









2. HARYANA STATE AND KARNAL REGION


Introduction
Haryana came into existence on 1 November, 1966, as a result of the division of the
former state of Punjab into Punjab and Haryana. It is situated in the northwestern region
of the country, adjacent to the national capital region and between the Himalayas in the
north and Rajasthan State in the south (Figure 2.1). The sister state of Punjab is on the
western side while the Yamuna River marks the eastern boundary with Uttar Pradesh.
Haryana is a small state. It covers 44,212 km2 and accounts for 1.4% of the total
geographical area of the country and about 2.2% of its total cultivated area.

Although only a small state, Haryana produces about 5.5% of the country's total food
grains and is one of three states that are major food exporters to the rest of the country.
Haryana is responsible for 11.5% of the country's total production of wheat, from only
7.6% of the wheat area (Table 1). Haryana is the second largest contributor of foodgrains
to the central national foodgrains pool, after Punjab. In addition to foodgrains, Haryana
produces a large quantity of quality cotton, oilseeds, sugar, vegetables and animal
products such as milk, eggs, and broilers. Much of this serves to feed the capital city,
Delhi.

Table 1. Wheat area and production for major wheat-growing states,
as a percent of all-India total, 1991
Wheat
Wheat area production
State (%) (%)
Punjab 13.1 21.4
Haryana 7.6 11.5
Uttar Pradesh 36.3 36.5
Rajasthan 7.3 7.3
Gujarat 2.7 2.8
Bihar 8.8 6.6
Madhya Pradesh 15.0 8.6
Other 9.2 5.3
Total 100.0 100.0
Source: Wheat Production Technology, ICAR (1991).

In this section, general information is given on land use, land types and soil types,
population, climate, irrigation, water quality, and cropping patterns. Information is first
provided for both Haryana State and for the Karnal study area, henceforth simply referred
to as "Karnal" or the "Karnal region."' The objective is to assess the degree to which
finds from Karnal can be generalized to the rest of the state.

1 The Karnal study area, Karnal research site, or Karal region includes the former Districts of Karnal and
Kurukshetra, now divided into the modem Districts of Karnal, Panipat, Kurukshetra, and Kaithal.







NORTH



EAST


CHANrDIGARH


HIMACHtAL PRADFSH


/


PUNJAB


UTTAR FRADESF


89


35

HISAR


DELHI


INDIA


Haryana


j Area under rice-wheat (numbers
indicate area in thousands of hectares)







Figure 2.1. Location of Haryana State in India and of rice-wheat
zones in Haryana State (1991-92).








Area and Population
The total geographical area of Haryana is 4.39 million hectares (m ha), of which 3.59 m
ha (82%) are cultivated.2 About 60% of net cultivated area is sown more than once per
year, raising total cropped area to around 6.0 m ha. The average size of holdings for the
state is 2.76 ha, but more than half of the farmers own and operate a farm area of less than
2.0 ha.

Karnal region3 occupies 17.5% of the state's geographical area. Of the total area within
the region, about 85% is cultivated, with 73% of this cultivated area cropped more than
once (Figure 2.2). Thus, cropping intensity in Karnal (173%) is only slightly higher than
for the state as a whole (160%). Cropping intensity has gradually increased for both
Haryana and Karnal over the last several decades, with annual growth rates of 2.8% and
3.5%, respectively, during the period 1965-66 to 1989-90.





Fig. 2.2. Cultivated area in Karnal,
1965-66 to 1989-90.


1,200


1,000 -


800 -


600-


Total cropped area


400


200


0
19


1989-90
1989-90


2 Data from 1990. The proportion of net area sown to total geographical area has remained roughly
constant since the early 1960s (data not shown).
3 Karnal region as used here includes Karnal and Kurukshetra Districts.










In 1992, the total population of Haryana was 16.3 million; of this 12.3 million (75%) is
rural and approximately 4 million (25%) urban. The total population of Kamal is 3.17
million, or around 20% of the state population, with a virtually identical ratio of rural to
urban residents. Population growth in the state is around 2.6% per year, somewhat higher
than the national population growth rate of 2.3%. Growth rates for Karnal are virtually
identical to those of the state as a whole. In both the state and the district, current rates of
population growth are considerably lower than those of 10 or 20 years ago (Figure 2.3).



Fig. 2.3. Population trends in Kamal
(urban vs. rural) over three decades.


3.5





2.5 -


E
o 2-


S 1.5-

0


2.6%


I I


I--


la iz-Vi


Urban

Rural


lozi-/l1 la/:-B1
Source: Statistical Abstracts of Haryana, 1990-91.
Percentages indicate annual growth rates during the decade.


Land and Soils
Haryana is characterized by considerable variability in land and soil types. The state
begins at the Siwalik (Lower Himalayan) range in the north, where undulating land and
rainfed agriculture predominate. The central portion of the state forms part of the Indo-
Gangetic Plain laid down by the Indus River system. This flat irrigated plain extends
towards the southern part of the state, where the lower Aravali ranges begin. A part of
the central plain, e.g., around Rohtak District, is low-lying and experiences drainage
problems in the rainy season. The southwestern part of Haryana adjoining Rajasthan
features sand dunes that cover a large area.


I


3.2%








Most of the soils in the northeastern and central regions are of the Indo-Gangetic alluvial
type. These soils are characterized as tropical arid brown to arid brown (Typic/Udic
Ustochrepts). The soils are calcareous. Calcium carbonate layers are found in some
locations in the central part of the state. The soils feature a sandy loam to clay loam
texture, and are very low in organic carbon but medium to high in phosphorous and
potash. Soil pH varies between 7.0 and 8.5, except for areas where problems of salinity
and sodicity are concentrated.

Saline and sodic soils were reported in 1988 to cover 526,000 ha, concentrated in the
central and western parts of the state, especially in the districts of Rohtak, Jind, Karnal,
Panipat, Kaithal, Gurgaon, Hisar, and Sirsa (Bhargava 1989). Many saline and sodic
areas, however, have since been reclaimed and returned to cultivation, especially in
Karnal, Kaithal, Panipat, and Jind Districts. Specifically, most sodic soils within the
Karnal study area have been reclaimed, the major exceptions being common lands and
some soils located in the southern part of the district where groundwater is relatively
brackish (HLRDC 1990).

Climate
The climate of Haryana is semiarid, with a mean annual rainfall of 558 mm. Rainfall
ranges from 300 mm per year in the southwestern zone to around 1,000 mm in the
Siwalik hills in Ambala District. Unfortunately, rainfall in Haryana is not only scanty; it
also tends to be unequally distributed, with 75-80% falling from July to September
(Figure 2.4). Considerable yearly fluctuations are also common (Figure 2.5).
Temperatures in Haryana are as variable as rainfall. Temperatures show a marked change
over the year, ranging from a minimum of about 10 C in December to a maximum of
nearly 450 C in May June (Figure 2.4).

Climatic conditions in Karnal are quite similar to those of the rest of Haryana, with the
exception that average rainfall is a little higher (600 mm per year). Nonetheless, rainfall
in Karnal demonstrates a variability similar to that found in the rest of the state.
Temperature variations are also similar.


Irrigation
Due to scanty and variable rainfall, most of the crops in Haryana are grown under
irrigation. The major sources of irrigation are canals (Western Yamuna canal and Bhakra
canal system) and tubewells, with each source servicing about 50% of the irrigated area.










Fig. 2.4. Average monthly rainfall
and temperature, Haryana, 1970-90.


Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Source: Statistical Abstracts of Haryana, vanous years.




Fig. 2.5. Total annual rainfall,
Haryana, 1970-90.


1970 1973 1976
Source: Statistical Abstracts of Haryana, various years.


Rainfall

Maximum temp

Mean temp

Minimum temp
Minimum temp








The state has seen a major increase in irrigated area during the last two and a half
decades. Irrigated area has grown even more rapidly in Karnal than in Haryana
(Figure 2.6). Whereas in 1965-66 about 41% of net cultivated area was irrigated in
Kamal and 37% in Haryana, by 1989-90 this had grown to 97% in Karnal vs. just over
70% for Haryana. Clearly, there is very little scope for increasing irrigated area in
Karnal. About 70% of irrigated area in Karnal is serviced by tubewell. On average, 37%
of the groundwater in the state is of good quality, 8% normal, 18% sodic, 11% saline, and
26% saline-sodic.


Fig. 2.6. Irrigated area in Haryana
and Karnal as percent of net sown area
1965-66 to 1989-90.


1965-66 1969-70 1973-74


Crops and Cropping Patterns
Many kinds of crops are grown in Haryana. Wheat, rice, bajra (millet) and other coarse
grains, sugarcane, pulses, oilseeds, cotton, and potato are the most important ones (Figure
2.7). The sequence of kharifrice followed by rabi wheat is the most common cropping
pattern in Haryana, covering 0.59 m ha (Sharma et al. 1992). About 90% of the state's
rice-wheat area is located in the eastern zone, including the districts of Karnal,
Kurukshetra, Panipat, Kaithal, Ambala, Yamuna Nagar, and parts of Jind and Sonipat
(Figure 2.1). The cotton-wheat cropping pattern is concentrated in the western zone,
bajra-wheat in the south-central zone, and fallow-mustard in the southern zone.
Sugarcane is grown mostly near sugar mills, and vegetables tend to be grown near urban
areas.








Fig. 2.7. Harvested area, major crops
in Karnal, 1989-90.


Wheat

Rice

Other

Bajra

Sugarcane

Pulses

Oilseeds

Cotton

Potato


- -- -- I

- -


200 300
Harvested area (000 ha)


400


There is reason to believe that Karnal region is the most important rice-wheat area of the
state. Nearly one-third of the state's wheat production comes from this region. Moreover,
it accounts for 62% of total state rice area and contributes about the same proportion of
rice production. About 90% of the rice grown there is followed by wheat, with the
remaining 10% followed by berseem clover, potato, sunflower, sugarcane, and other
crops. Rice and wheat are the major crops of Kamal region, together covering 80% of the
total cropped area. After rice-wheat, other major cropping patterns include rice-berseem,
rice-toria-berseem-wheat/sunflower, sugarcane-ratoon, and various rotations featuring
vegetables and fodder crops .









3. TRENDS IN PRODUCTION, AREA, AND YIELD FOR FOODGRAINS IN
HARYANA AND KARNAL


Production Trends
At the time of its creation in 1966, Haryana was a food-deficit state. During the last two
and a half decades, however, the state has made remarkable progress. Annual foodgrain
production increased three-fold from 2.59 million tons (m t) in 1966 to nearly 10 m t in
1991-92, an increase of about 5% per year (Figure 3.1). Given that foodgrain area
increased only marginally during this period (0.5% per year growth rate), it is clear that
most of the production increase was due to higher yields (4.4% per year growth rate).


Fig. 3.1. Area and production trends
for foodgrains, Haryana, 1966-91.


0 -.1 I .I I I I I
1965-66 1970-71 1975-76 1980-4
Source: Statistical Abstracts of Haryana, various years.


Major foodgrain crops of the state include wheat, rice, coarse grains (jowar or sorghum,
bajra, maize, barley), and pulses. Although coarse grains and pulses continue to cover a
substantial proportion of total foodgrain area (38% in 1990-91 -- see Figure 3.2), the
contribution of these crops to expanded foodgrain production has been modest. Most of
the increase in foodgrain production has come from rice and wheat, particularly the latter
(Figure 3.3).










Fig. 3.2. Foodgrain area trends,
Haryana, 1965-66 to 1990-91.


1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989
Source: Directorate of Agnculture, Chandigarh, Haryana


Fig. 3.3. Foodgrain production trends
Haryana, 1965-66 to 1990-91.


1965-66 1970-71 1975-76
Source: Directorate of Agriculture,Haryana.Chandigarh.


Pulses

Coarse grains

Rice
m
Wheat


I-
Pulses

Coarse grains

Rice

Wheat









During 1965-66 to 1990-91, wheat production increased from 0.87 m t to 6.44 m t, and
rice production from 0.21 m t to 1.85 m t, with annual growth rates of 6.7% and 8.8%
respectively (Table 2).

Similar production trends may be observed in Karnal region. During 1965-66 to 1990-91,
foodgrain production in Karnal increased 5.7% per year, climbing from 0.59 m t to
3.1 m t. This was entirely due to rapid expansion in rice and wheat production. During
the period in question, rice production increased from 0.16 m t to 1.12 m t, while wheat
production increased from 0.27 m t to 2.0 m t, with annual growth rates of 8.0% and 6.3%
respectively. In contrast, production of coarse grains and pulses in Karnal dwindled over
time (Figure 3.4). Growth rates for coarse grain and pulse production for kharifand rabi
seasons were negative for both Haryana and Karal (Table 2).



Fig. 3.4. Foodgrain production trends
Karnal, 1965-66 to 1990-91.

3.5 -





2.5 Total foodgrain production
Pulses
2
Coarse grains
.0
1.5 Rice

Wheat


0.5


0
1965-66 1970-71 1975-76 1980-81 1985-86 1990-91





However, it should be noted that growth in the production of rice (and to a lesser extent
wheat) has slowed considerably in recent years in both Haryana and Karnal. Between
1965-79, for example, rice production increased at over 10% per year. Between 1980-90,
however, growth in rice production slowed to 3% per year in Haryana and only 1% per
year in Karnal (Figure 3.5).









Fig. 3.5. Production growth rates for
rice and wheat, Haryana and Karnal.


rice in wheat in rice in wheat in
Haryana Haryana Karnal Karnal


1965-79

1980-90


Table 2. Annual growth rates (%/yr) in area, yield, and production for wheat,
rice, coarse grains, and pulses, Haryana and Karnal, 1965-66 to 1990-91.
Location and crop Area Yield Production
Haryana
Wheat 3.5 3.2 6.7
Rice 5.0 3.3 8.8
Jowar -4.5 1.4 -3.1
Bajra -1.6 0.8 -0.8
Maize -4.6 0.6 -4.0
Barley -4.7 2.0 -2.7
Gram -3.5 -0.3 -3.8
Karnal
Wheat 3.1 3.2 6.3
Rice 4.9 3.1 8.0
Jowar -10.0 4.5 -5.5
Bajra -5.5 2.5 -3.0
Maize -8.2 0.6 -7.6
Barley -13.2 2.2 -11.0
Gram -15.6 -1.4 -17.0








Area Trends
As noted above, trends in production can be disaggregated into underlying trends in area
and yields. Additional information on area trends for Haryana and Karnal is provided in
this section. Information on yield trends is provided in the next section.

During the last two and a half decades, total foodgrain area in Haryana grew slowly (0.5%
per year), climbing from 3.02 m ha in 1965-66 to reach 4.1 m ha in 1990-91. Most of this
growth took place in the late 1960s; since 1970, there has been virtually no increase in
foodgrain area (Figure 3.1). However, this stagnation masks very different trends for rice
and wheat on the one hand, and coarse grains and pulses on the other. Rice area
expanded from 0.2 m ha to 0.6 m ha and wheat area grew from 0.7 m ha to 1.8 m ha, with
annual growth rates of 3.5% and 5.0% respectively. In contrast, area under coarse grains
and pulses declined dramatically (Table 2).

In 1965-66, the main kharifseason foodgrains in Haryana werejowar and bajra, with the
latter predominant in terms of area. Since then, growth in rice area has been made
possible by reductions in the area under other kharif crops -- especially bajra. By the
mid- to late 1980s, rice had overtaken bajra as the main kharif season crop in the state
(Figure 3.6). Similar trends may be observed for non-wheat rabi season crops. In 1965-
66, gram was the major rabi crop, more important in terms of area than wheat. Since that
date, gram area has declined dramatically, while wheat area has grown rapidly (Figure
3.7). For most coarse grains and pulses, these sharp declines in area have overwhelmed
slow yield increases, resulting in declining production.



Fig. 3.6. Trends in kharif crop area,
Haryana, 1965-66 to 1991-92.

1,200


1,000 -


800 -
Bajra

Rice
i CU 600-
So : Jowar
400 -
Maize

200


1965-66 1969-70 1 973-74 1977-78 1981-82 1985-86 1989-90
o, : S- cal Abtrmdcof4 HwyI ro- Yom.











Fig. 3.7. Trends in rabi crop area
Haryana, 1965-66 to 1990-91.


2,000





1,500


6ca
V
CO


Cu
I


U..,, I I


I ] I l l II I I I I I I I | I I | I | I I I |
1965-66 1970-71 1975-76 1980-81 1985-86 1990-91
Source: Directorate of Agriculture, Haryana.


-U-
Wheat

Gram

Barley


Trends in Karnal are similar to those in Haryana. Area under rice and wheat has
increased rapidly (4.9% and 3.1% annual growth rate, respectively, from 1965-66 to
1990-91), while area under coarse grains and pulses has dwindled. Area under non-wheat
rabi crops in Karnal (especially gram) has virtually disappeared. The replacement of
other foodgrains by rice and wheat has been even more complete in Karnal than in
Haryana.


The rapid increase in rice and wheat area in both Haryana and Karal slowed during the
1980s as double cropping became more common and competing crops were displaced.
Annual growth rates in rice or wheat area during the period 1965-79 were similar in both
Haryana and Karnal, ranging from 4.8% to 6.1% per year. During the period 1980-90,
however, these growth rates slowed considerably. For example, the annual growth rate in
wheat area in Haryana slowed from 5.1% in the former period to a mere 1.6% in the latter
period (Figure 3.8). Given the extent to which rice and wheat have already driven out
alternative foodgrains, it seems unlikely that area growth will be a major source of future
increases in rice and wheat production.


n









Fig. 3.8. Growth rates, rice and wheat
area, 1965-79 and 1980-90.


7-


6-


5-


S4-


S3-
0
2-


1-


0-


Wheat


Rice Wheat
Karnal


Yield Trends
A significant achievement of Haryana and Kamal agriculture during the last two decades
has been the rapid increase in rice and wheat yields. Yield trends for rice and wheat in
Haryana and Karnal are summarized in Table 3.



Table 3. Yields and yield growth rates for rice and wheat in Haryana and
Karnal

Rice in Rice in Wheat in Wheat in
Variable Haryana Karnal Haryana Karnal
Yield 1965-66 (t/ha) 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.3
Yield 1990-91 (t/ha) 2.8 2.7 3.6 3.9
Annual growth rate, 1965-66 to 1990-91 (%)
3.3 3.1 3.2 3.2
Annual growth rate, 1965-66 to 1979-80 (%)
5.6 5.9 2.7 2.9
Annual growth rate, 1980-81 to 1990-91 (%)
0.7 -0.2 4.0 4.6


Rice
Haryana


1965-79

1980-90
1980-90


I








It is interesting to note that rice yields have been stagnant in both Haryana and Karnal
since the late 1970s (Figure 3.9). This situation is relatively marked in Karal, where rice
yields grew at a rate of 5.9% from 1965-66 to 1979-80, but declined at a rate of 0.2%
between 1980-81 and 1990-91 (Table 3). The possibility that this may be due to changes
in input use will be examined in Chapter 4. The most likely explanation, however, is that
basmati rice (which is relatively low yielding in comparison with other rice MVs) has
expanded as a proportion of total rice area, especially in Karnal. Unfortunately, statistics
are not gathered separately for basmati rice, so basmati vs. normal rice area, yield, and
production trends cannot be distinguished. Basmati rice is attractive to farmers because
of the higher price it commands in the market.



Fig. 3.9. Trends in rice yields,
Haryana and Karnal, 1965-66 to 1990-91


-" 2.4 -_


> 1.6 Kamal
C 1.6



0.8


0.0
0.0 I I I I I I I I I I -iI I
1965-66 1970-71 1975-76 1980-81 1985-86 1990-91
Source: Statistical Abstracts of Haryana, various years.



Wheat yield trends have remained strongly positive throughout the time period being
studied. Wheat yields in Karnal grew at a rate of 2.9% between 1965-66 and 1979-80,
and at a rate of 4.6% in the following period from 1980-81 to 1990-91. Wheat yield
trends in Karnal and Haryana are virtually identical (Figure 3.10).









Fig. 3.10. Wheat yield trends

Haryana and Kamal, 1965-66 to 1990-91


4.0




3.2




2.4
Haryana


1.6. Karnal




0.8




0.0. I I .I .I .I . I
1965-66 1970-71 1975-76 1980-81 1985-86 1990-91

Source: Statistical Abstracts of Haryana, various years.




Yields of non-rice khariffoodgrains have fluctuated considerably from year to year, but in
general have not shown a positive trend (Figure 3.11). Yields of non-wheat rabi crops
have also stagnated (with the exception of barley) (Figure 3.12). Yield trends for coarse
grains and pulses in Karnal are similar to those for Haryana.











Fig. 3.11. Kharif crop yield trends

Haryana, 1965-66 to 1990-91


Fig. 3.12. Rabi season crop yields

Haryana, 1965-66 to 1990-91


4.U -


3.5


3.0-I-


2.5 -


2.0 I


1.5


1.0


1969-70 1973-74 1977-78 1981-82 1985-86 1989-90


--I-
Rice


Maize
-4-

Jowar

-ajra


--
Wheat


Barley
-4--
Gram


1965-66









4. TRENDS IN INPUT USE


In the previous section, the increased production of rice and wheat achieved in Haryana
and Karnal since the mid-1960s was attributed to expanded rice and wheat harvested area,
and higher rice and wheat yields. Rice and wheat harvested area expanded partly at the
expense of other crops. However, an increase in irrigated area, primarily through the
installation of tubewells, was also important. Higher rice and wheat yields were achieved
through widespread farmer adoption of high yielding modern varieties (MVs) and other
inputs, particularly fertilizer. The strengthening of institutional support services also
played a role. In this section, additional information is provided on trends in farmer
adoption of new rice and wheat production technology in Haryana and Karnal, and the
role of government support services in fostering this adoption.

Modern Varieties of Rice and Wheat
The strategy of agricultural development employed in the study area since 1966-67 has
been based on the use of rice and wheat MVs, which tend to be high yielding, early
maturing and photoperiod-insensitive. The spread of wheat MVs in Haryana (particularly
in Karnal) was exceptionally rapid. Wheat MVs in Haryana increased from about 2% of
the wheat area in 1966-67 to 85% in 1973-74, reaching 99% in the 1990-91 crop season
(Figure 4.1). In Kamal, 99% of the wheat area was covered by MVs as early as 1973-74
(Figure 4.2). At present, virtually all wheat farmers in Haryana use MVs. On average,
area covered by wheat MVs grew by about 11.7% per year in Haryana between 1966 and
1989.

Adoption of rice MVs has been slower than for wheat. By 1973-74, about 50% of rice
area in both Haryana or Karnal was planted to these varieties. The area covered by MVs
increased to about 85% of the rice area in 1981-82, but then started declining. By 1990,
the area covered by rice MVs was down to less than 70% of the rice area in both Haryana
and Karnal (Figures 4.1 and 4.2). The main reason for this trend is that farmers have
increasingly turned to basmati rice, which commands higher prices in the market (Table
4) and requires lower input rates than MVs.1

Farmers' use of maize MVs in Karnal and Haryana has been modest (Figures 4.1 and 4.2).
The lower popularity of maize MVs (compared to rice or wheat MVs) has been attributed
to their long duration, poor resistance to pests and stress conditions, and farmers' taste
preferences for local varieties (Rai 1988). Farmer adoption of bajra MVs in Haryana has
been moderate.






1 Basmati yields are usually around half those of MVs. Nonetheless, the higher product price and lower
production costs combine to make basmati production more profitable.










Fig. 4.1. Percentage area covered

by MVs of four crops, Haryana, 1966-89


100



80



60



40



20



0
1


A


1974-75 1978-79 1982-83 1986-87


Fig. 4.2. Percentage area covered

by MVs of three crops, Karnal, 1970-90


--w-
Wheat
.-4k

Rice


Maize


1966-67 1970-71


--N-

Wheat
--4k---

Rice


Bajra
-B-
Maize








Table 4. Prices of MV and basmati rice (unmilled)
in Traori market (Karnal District) Rs/quintal, 1987-88 to 1991-92.
Ratio of minimum
Basmati price basmati price to
Year MV price minimum MV price
1987-88 150-240 455-650 3.1
1988-89 192-207 315-550 1.6
1989-90 185-258 360-565 1.9
1990-91 175-260 337-820 1.9
1991-92 250-400 550-1850 2.2
Source: Market committee, Traori (Karnal). Note that Traori is the biggest market for basmati
rice in India. One quintal = 100 kg.


Fertilizer
Fertilizer has long been recognized as a key input for increased agricultural production in
India (Randhawa and Abrol 1990). Rice and wheat MVs respond well to fertilizer and
the use of this input increased dramatically after their introduction. The annual use of
inorganic fertilizer for all crops in Haryana increased from 13,300 t of nutrients (NPK) in
1966-67 to 586,300 t in 1990-91 (Figure 4.3).2 During the same period, fertilizer use
rates (all crops) increased from 3 kg/ha/yr to 104 kg/ha/yr. Fertilizer use rates in Karnal
(currently about 171 kg/ha) are higher than the state average (Figure 4.4). Increased
fertilizer use in Haryana has not been equally distributed among all major nutrients.
Much of the early increase took the form of higher nitrogen use. Since the early 1980s,
however, phosphate use also has picked up. Potash use has remained minimal. In
Karnal, farmers use a slightly higher proportion of nitrogen to total fertilizer (79%) than
in Haryana (74%).

In Haryana and Karnal, fertilizer use is concentrated on a few crops. Wheat and rice
together consume nearly 71% of the total fertilizer used in Haryana, and about 88% in
Karnal.3 With the adoption of rice and wheat MVs, fertilizer consumption for these crops
increased rapidly. Estimated fertilizer use rates for rice in Haryana increased from 15
kg/ha in 1966-67 to 172 kg/ha in 1990-91. During the same period, fertilizer use rates for
wheat rose from 10 to 184 kg/ha. A similar pattern emerges in Karnal. During the period
in question, fertilizer use rates rose from 12 to 168 kg/ha for rice and from 11 to 205
kg/ha for wheat (Figure 4.5). This trend can partly be explained by a gradual reduction in
the price of fertilizer relative to the harvest price of foodgrains (Figure 4.4).





2 The steep fall in fertilizer consumption in Haryana and Karnal observed during 1974-75 can be attributed
to a sharp increase in fertilizer prices during 1974.
3 Per-hectare fertilizer use for rice and wheat was estimated on the assumption that 90% of the fertilizer
applied in Haryana during the rabi season is used for wheat (90% in Karnal), while 55% of fertilizer
applied in Haryana during the kharifseason is used for rice (85% in Karnal). These shares are based on
cost of cultivation data for rice and wheat crops for Haryana (Ministry of Agriculture, Government of India)
and for Karnal region (Haryana Agricultural University).







Fig. 4.3. Fertilizer consumption (NPK)
Haryana (all crops), 1967-90.


1971


5 1979 1983


Fig. 4.4. Fertilizer use rates,
Haryana and Karnal, 1967-90.


--a
Kamal

Haryana

N:wheat price ratio


Source: FAI, 1991.


1I;


Potash

Phosphate

Nitrogen


1967


i








Fig. 4.5. Fertilizer use rates,
Haryana and Karnal, 1966-90.


Fertilizer use rates for rice in Karnal appear to have grown relatively slowly. This may be
explained by an increased proportion of rice area covered by basmati varieties. If rice
MVs and basmati varieties are separated, per-hectare fertilizer use for rice MVs comes to
210 kg/ha. On average, basmati varieties receive only about one-third of the fertilizer
used on MVs. Total fertilizer use in Haryana increased at the rate of 12.7% per year
during 1966-67 to 1990-91. Of the major nutrients, phosphorous increased most rapidly
(18.2% per year), followed by nitrogen (11.9% per year). During this period, per-hectare
fertilizer use increased at a slightly lower rate than total fertilizer use, due to a small
increase in total cropped area (Table 5). Growth rates in Karnal were similar to those in
Haryana. Given the currently high levels of fertilizer application, it seems likely that
fertilizer use rates will grow more slowly in the future.


Table 5. Growth rates (%/yr) of fertilizer use in Haryana and Karnal,
1966-67 to 1990-91
Nutrients Haryana Karnal
Nitrogen_ 11.9 10.1
Phosphorous 18.2 17.8
Potash 10.2 22.7
Total NPK _12.7 11.9


Source: Calculated from data collected from Directorate of Agriculture, Haryana, Chandigarh.










Irrigation
In Punjab and Haryana, adequate and efficient irrigation has been a major factor in
fostering the use of MVs, chemical fertilizer, and increased cropping intensity (Ojha et al.
1991). Between 1965 and 1989, net irrigated area in Haryana increased from 1.2 m ha to
2.7 m ha, an increase from 36% to 73% of net cultivated area. Growth in gross irrigated
area was even larger, due to an increase in the area irrigated in both seasons (Figure 4.6).
Net irrigated area in Haryana increased at a rate of 3.3% per year during 1965-89, while
gross irrigated area grew by 3.9% per year during the same period. At present, all rice
and wheat grown in Haryana is irrigated, occupying 58% of gross irrigated area.



Fig. 4.6. Irrigated area in Haryana,
1965-66 to 1989-90.

4,500


4,000
4,0 Gross area

3,500 Net area


2 3,000


Z 2,500


S2,000


1,500


1,000 ., . , I I III -I ,
1965-66 1969-70 1973-74 1977-78 1981-82 1985-86 1989-90





The swift increase in irrigated area in Haryana was largely the result of investment in
tubewells. The area irrigated by tubewell increased from less than 18% of gross irrigated
area in 1965-66 to 49% in 1990-91. In actual terms, the area irrigated by tubewell in
Haryana increased from 0.2 m ha to 1.3 m ha during this period, with a growth rate of 7%
per year. In contrast, the area irrigated by canals grew more slowly, from 0.9 m ha to 1.4
m ha, with a growth rate of 1.2% per year (Figure 4.7).










Fig. 4.7. Irrigated area in Haryana,
by source, 1965-66 to 1989-90.


3,000 -


2,500 -


' 2,000
.. .......
0

S1,500 -
a,
1,000

z


500 -


0 -
1965-66


1989-90
1989-90


In Karnal, the importance of tubewell irrigation has been even greater than in other parts
of Haryana. In Karnal, nearly 80% of net irrigated area currently is served by tubewell. In
comparison, in the late 1960s only 30-35% of the irrigated area in Karnal was served by
tubewell (Figure 4.8). The area irrigated by canal in Karnal actually declined during this
period at the rate of 0.1% per year. During the 1960s and 1970s, the growth in area
irrigated by tubewell was especially rapid. Since 1980, however, these growth rates have
declined sharply. Given emerging problems of groundwater depletion, it seems unlikely
that area irrigated by tubewell will expand much further, especially in Karnal (Figure
4.9).

Canal water appears to have been replaced by tubewell water in Karnal for four reasons.
First, canal water has become more scarce as some of it has been diverted to drier areas in
the south of the state. Second, groundwater supplies have been considered by farmers to
be more reliable because they are not affected by weather-related factors. Third,
electricity used to power tubewells has been heavily subsidized, with farmers being
charged a flat rate per month regardless of the amount of electricity used. Fourth, the
groundwater in most of the Karnal region is of reasonably good quality.








Not surprisingly, the expansion of area irrigated by tubewell has been matched with a
corresponding increase in the number of tubewells. In Karnal, there are now more than
250 tubewells per 1,000 ha cultivated area (Table 6).


Fig. 4.8. Area irrigated by tubewell
as percent of net irrigated area,
1966-90.


Table 6. Total number of tubewells and number of tubewells
per 1,000 ha of cultivated area, Haryana and Karnal, 1966-67
and 1989-90
Growth
rate
Variable 1966-67 1989-90 (%/yr)
Haryana
Total number of tubewells 27,957 497,571 10.6
Number of tubewells per
1,000 ha of cultivated area 8.2 138.5
Karnal
Total number of tubewells 11,670 172,360 11.0
Number of tubewells per
1,000 ha of cultivated area 18.6 264











Fig. 4.9. Growth rates for area
irrigated by tubewell

Haryana and Karnal, 1966-79 and 1980-90.


12


10-

-8

6 1966-79

r- 1980-90



2-


0
Haryana Karnal





Mechanization
The use of machinery for farm operations in Haryana was quite limited before 1966,
except among larger farmers. Farmers began to mechanize farm operations after rice and
wheat MVs became available. While mechanization has included the introduction of
tractors, tubewells, and combines, only tractors are discussed here.4 The number of
tractors in Haryana increased rapidly during the last two decades, from 4,803 units in
1966-67 to 130,246 units in 1990-91. This represents a growth rate of around 13% per
year. In Karnal, the number of tractors grew even faster, at an annual rate of about
14.8%.5 During the same period, the number of tractors per 1,000 ha cultivated area in
Haryana rose from 1.4 to 36.2 (Figure 4.10).


4 Tubewells were discussed in the previous session. With regard to combines, at present virtually 100% of
wheat in the state is machine threshed. Combines, for the most part, are rented and are only rarely
purchased by individual farmers. The labor displaced by combines and their wastage of wheat straw are
controversial issues. However, their number is increasing at a fast rate, particularly in Karnal region. The
demand for combines is greater in HYV rice, where saving straw for fodder is less of an issue and where
farmers wish to clear the field quickly to sow wheat on time.
5 The rapid increase in the number of tractors and tubewells was made possible partly by the increase in
farm business income, which raised the risk-bearing capacity of farmers while improving their
























U,
0
C-,


Fig. 4.10. Number of tractors,
Haryana, 1967-91.

140,000 35


120,000 30


100,000 25


80,000 -,20


60,000 15


40
40,000


20,000


0


a,
-C
0


E
0


.5


o I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 1 1 1 o
1966-67 1970-71 1974-75 1978-79 1982-83 1986-87 1990-91

--1- Total tractors -- Tractors per 1,000 ha




Pesticides and Herbicides
Intensive cropping is thought by some to create conditions for rapid growth of pests and
diseases. Protection of crops from pests and diseases has become an important part of
agricultural production strategy.6 In Haryana, the use of plant protection measures has
also increased significantly during the last two decades. The consumption of pesticides
(technical grade) increased from 363 t in 1970-71 to 5,165 t in 1990-91, showing an
annual growth rate of 11.5%. Continuous monoculture of rice and wheat over many years
has fostered the development of grassy weed populations in Haryana, which can reduce
the yields of rice and wheat. To control these weeds, increasing amounts of herbicides
are being used. Chemicals were used to control weeds on 187,000 ha of the rice area
(30.4%) and 371,000 ha of the wheat area (19.8%) during 1989-90. A total of 566,0001
of herbicide were used in rice production, and an additional 745 t for the wheat crop.
These volumes are up from 1980-81 volumes of only 99,000 1 and 105.8 t for rice and
wheat, respectively. A district-wise breakdown of herbicide consumption and area


creditworthiness. It was also partly due to the liberal credit facilities provided by state agencies and
commercial banks.
6 It should be noted, however, that many of the newer MVs feature enhanced resistance or tolerance to
biotic and abiotic stresses, including pests and diseases.








covered by chemical weed control in 1988-89 shows that around 67% of total rabi and
kharif herbicide consumption is being utilized in Karnal region alone, with the rest going
to other parts of Haryana state (data not shown).7


Supporting Policies, Infrastructure, and Services
The effect of the agricultural development strategy based on MVs, irrigation, and
fertilizer would have been less dramatic without changes in product price policies,
expansion in credit and input supplies, development of markets, rural roads and rural
electrification, and continued emphasis on research and extension. This theme has been
studied in some depth by McGuirk and Mundlak (1991).

Product Prices
A key instrument of agricultural policy in India is the setting of the price at which the
government procures foodgrains for the public distribution system. The main features of
this system include restrictions on grain movement, government procurement in surplus
districts, and control over traders. The Agricultural Price Commission (now renamed the
Agricultural Costs and Price Commission) recommends prices for major crops at levels it
claims are remunerative to farmers. The government then announces the prices at which
surplus wheat and rice will be procured by government agencies. Although real
procurement prices typically have been below world border price equivalents and,
moreover, have gradually declined (Figure 4.11), this arrangement is thought to have
encouraged farmers to increase agricultural production in general, and rice and wheat
production in particular, by maintaining prices at levels higher than would otherwise be
the case. Haryana, being a foodgrain surplus state, has benefited from these
arrangements.

Credit
Given the fact that MVs have a greater response to external inputs than traditional
varieties, the availability of credit for purchasing these inputs was important in the early
days of MV use. Credit was also important in fostering the mechanization of many farm
operations, especially for smaller farmers. In Haryana, credit facilities to farmers
developed through cooperatives have provided short-, medium- and long-term credit at
reasonable rates. For example, during 1989-90 375.4 crore8 rupees were distributed to
Haryana farmers by cooperatives as short-term loans, compared to only Rs. 8 crores in
1966-67. In addition Rs 361 crores have been advanced by cooperative banks as
medium- and long- term loans, mostly for tractors and tubewells.

Markets and roads
To facilitate the marketing and procurement of foodgrains, the government developed a
sizable infrastructure of regulated markets and rural roads. Every village of Haryana is



7 In Haryana, 371,000 ha out of 1,859,000 ha of wheat were treated with herbicide in 1990. However, in
Karnal, 235,000 ha out of 484,000 ha of wheat were treated.
8 1 crore = 10,000,000. In 1992, 1 US $ = 25 Rs, down from the 1990 exchange rate of 1 US $ = 18 Rs.








now connected by an all weather road to a market center. The total foodgrain storage
capacity in Haryana has increased from 695,000 t in 1974-75 to 2,661,000 t in 1990-91.




Fig 4.11. Rice and wheat procurement
prices, Haryana, 1977-92.

180

160- Wheat

140
S0 Rice
.. 12 0
2 World wheat price
o 100
.-C

SWorld wheat price
S60 estimated from soft wheat

) 40 Deflated to 1977 prices export prices plus
.0 shipping to Calcutta,
converted to local
20
currency at the average
annual exchange rate and
0 I I 1 1 II I I I I I I I I Idp
1977-78 1980-81 1983-84 1986-87 1989-90 defeated to 1977 prices.




Electricity
Supplying electricity to agriculture, particularly for running tubewells, has been an
important part of the agricultural development program of Haryana State. Because of
subsidies, electricity has long been cheaper than diesel as a source of power for tubewells.
Not surprisingly, around 70% of the tubewells in Haryana are powered by electricity and
the fastest growing source of demand for electricity in the state is agriculture. The
proportion of total available electricity consumed by the agricultural sector increased
from 22.2% in 1966-67 to 44% in 1990-91. Abundant and inexpensive electricity has
fostered technical change, but it has also led to inefficient use of water resources and
contributed to groundwater depletion (discussed in a later section).

Research and extension
The States of Punjab and Haryana are known for their substantial investments in
agricultural research, even when compared to other states. Continued emphasis on
research and extension is important because varieties typically lose their resistance to
diseases after some years, and new varieties are required to replace them. New crop




33


production practices are also required with changing conditions. In Haryana, the Haryana
Agricultural University is successfully doing this job with a network of research stations
located in different agroclimatic regions of the state.

Last but not least is the transfer of research gains to the millions of farmers who really
need them. In Haryana, the government has a well-organized agricultural extension
network up to the village level. The T&V system has further strengthened the existing
one. A strong linkage exists between research and extension in the state which is
exemplary for other states in India. In addition to the government Department of
Agriculture, the HAU has a strong Farm Advisory Service that runs Farm Advisory
Centers popularly known as KGKs (Krishi Gyan Kendras) in each District where 10
scientists deal with agriculture and livestock production. These centers work in
collaboration with the State Department of Agriculture.








5. SUSTAINABILITY ISSUES AND SOURCES OF


FUTURE PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH

Over the past two and a half decades, the use of new agricultural technology has
substantially altered the nature of agricultural production in India. Foodgrain production
in this period has grown swiftly, particularly in Green Revolution areas such as Haryana.
This has generated increased rural employment and incomes while reducing the price of
food for poor urban consumers (Bhalla et al. 1990, Sarma and Gandhi 1990). Recently,
however, annual rates of increase for rice and wheat production have fallen off severely in
both Haryana and Karnal.

As noted in the first section, evidence is accumulating that suggests that the gains from
the Green Revolution are being eroded or even reversed in many areas of South Asia.
Repeatedly, it appears that the expansion of rice and wheat area has halted, growth in rice
and wheat productivity has slowed, and historical sources of productivity growth have
exhausted much of their potential. Moreover, there is reason to believe that the natural
resource base devoted to the rice-wheat cropping pattern is being degraded. Declining.
soil fertility, organic matter loss, water-induced land degradation, and other factors appear
to be involved. Such trends, if confirmed, would constitute a serious menace to the
longer-term development of large areas of South Asia. The objective of this section is to
explore some threats to the productivity of the rice-wheat system, and to the quality of the
land and water resources devoted to that system, in Haryana and Karnal.

To begin, it may be noted that the growth rate for production of a crop is the sum of the
growth rate for area and the growth rate for yield. This decomposition is shown for both
rice and wheat during two periods (1966-79 and 1980-92) for Haryana (Figure 5.1) and
Karnal (Figure 5.2). The two figures show similar results. During the period 1966-79,
growth in area and yields for rice and wheat (and therefore rice and wheat production)
was swift indeed. However, during the period 1980-92 growth in rice area slowed
dramatically and growth in rice yields virtually halted. Wheat area growth also slowed --
but wheat yield growth accelerated. As a consequence, wheat yield growth, a relatively
unimportant factor in the earlier period, has emerged as the single most important factor
in maintaining growth in overall foodgrain production.

Further Expansion in Rice and Wheat Area
Growth in rice and wheat area in Haryana and Karnal has been associated with three
processes:
* opening new land for cultivation,
* increasing cropping intensity, and
* substituting rice and wheat for other crops.

All three processes have exhausted much of their potential, especially in Karnal.









Fig. 5.1. Haryana: Components of
production growth, 1966-79 and 1980-90


Rice 1966-79 Rice 1980-90 Wheat 1966-79 Wheat 1980-90

1 Area growth 0 Yield growth


Fig. 5.2. Karnal: Components of
production growth, 1966-79 and 1980-92


Rice 1966-79


Rice 1980-90 Wheat 1966-79 Wheat 1980-90


I Area growth E Yield growth







Expansion of cultivated area
There is little reason to expect any significant increase in total cultivated area over the
next decade or so. Already, 82% of the total geographical area in Haryana and 85% in
Karnal is under cultivation. Moreover, given urbanization and industrialization in the
state, the tendency may be towards a reduction in cultivated area. During the last decade,
the urban population of Haryana increased by 4.3% per year, while the rural population
increased at only 1.8% per year. As urbanization proceeds, much of the most fertile land
(which tends to be located near cities and towns) will become covered with houses.1 One
opportunity for increasing cultivated area might be to reclaim saline/sodic soils.
Evidence from farm surveys, however, suggests that in the Karnal region most of these
soils already have been reclaimed.

Increased cropping intensity
Cropping intensity is already fairly high in Haryana (160%) and Karnal (173%), and
further intensification will depend on continued expansion of irrigation facilities.
Particularly in Karnal, the heart of Haryana's rice-wheat area, there is little room for
additional expansion of irrigated area. Virtually all net sown area is already irrigated
(Figure 2.6). Moreover, about 80% of the irrigated area within Karnal is served by
tubewells (Figure 4.8). Given the high density of tubewells (approximately one tubewell
for every 4 ha of cultivated area), the recent collapse in the growth rate in area irrigated
by tubewells (Figure 4.9), and the emerging problem of groundwater depletion (discussed
below), it seems clear that the installation of additional tubewells will do little to further
expand rice and wheat area in the Karnal region.2

Substitution of rice and wheat for other crops
A final opportunity to further increase rice and wheat area would appear to be through the
substitution of rice and wheat for other crops. However, 44% of total cropped area in
Haryana and more than 80% in Karnal is already devoted to rice and wheat. It will be
increasingly difficult to reduce the limited area remaining in fodder crops, sugarcane,3
vegetables, and fruits. Moreover, the introduction of sunflower as a cash crop has
reduced potential wheat area, particularly in locations where wheat typically has been
sown late. Trends in the area devoted to rice and wheat versus competing crops will be
affected, of course, by their relative profitability, which in turn will be influenced by
product and input pricing policies as well as trends in yield improvement.

Summary
As a result of the trends described above, it seems likely that rice and wheat area growth
will be even slower in the 1990s than during the 1980s. Continued increase in foodgrain
production almost certainly will not come through rice and wheat area expansion.

1 Indeed, thousands of hectares of productive land around cities was acquired during the last two decades
by the Haryana Urban Development Authority to construct housing.
2 Some opportunities for expanded irrigation, however, may remain in other parts of Haryana State.
Indeed, data shown in Figure 4.7 suggest that tubewell installation in Haryana is accelerating. One
opportunity for expanding surface irrigation relies on obtaining water (Haryana's share) from the Satluj-
Vyas Link (SVL) canal.
3 Indeed, four new sugar mills are proposed for the state, three of them to be located in the rice-wheat tract.








Further Improvements in Rice and Wheat Yields
If area expansion is ruled out as a major source of expansion in foodgrain production,
what are the prospects for yield growth to play this role? In the past, yield growth has
been associated with the introduction of MVs, the installation of irrigation infrastructure
(discussed above), and farmers' use of higher rates of fertilizer and pesticides (including
herbicides). To what extent can these sources of productivity growth be relied on for
continued yield expansion? What new sources of productivity growth might be tapped?

Historical trends in rice and wheat yields (Figures 3.9 and 3.10) might easily be taken as
evidence that there is little cause for concern about the capacity of Haryana farmers to
meet future food demands. The possibility must be considered, however, that traditional
sources of productivity growth may have largely exhausted their potential. In the
following sections, sources of productivity growth and sustainability concerns are
discussed with respect to:
* varietal change,
* water quality and groundwater depletion,
* soil fertility and land quality, and
* problems associated with insects, diseases, and weeds.

Varietal change
Adoption by farmers of rice and wheat MVs was shown in Section 4 to have been
exceptionally rapid. Virtually all wheat farmers in Karnal and other parts of Haryana use
wheat MVs (Figures 4.1 and 4.2), many of them having shifted to newer varieties that
were released after the initial Green Revolution.4 The use of wheat MVs has been the
rule throughout the state since the early 1970s.

The experience with rice has been somewhat different. Rice MVs covered around 85% of
the total rice area in the state in the early 1980s but quickly declined to around 70%
(Figures 4.1 and 4.2). As noted in Section 4, the area under rice MVs dwindled because
farmers shifted to basmati rice, yields of which are only about half those of MVs. It
appears that during the 1992-93 season in Karnal, basmati may have covered 50% of the
total rice area. Stagnation of rice yields because of a shift from MVs to basmati,
however, is not cause for alarm. Given the higher price and lower production costs
associated with basmati, the value of production has increased and farmers' incomes have
improved. Moreover, it may be possible to breed new basmati varieties with higher
yields.

Nonetheless, it is clear that further growth in the proportion of rice and wheat area sown
to MVs will no longer be a source of increased rice and wheat yields and foodgrain
production. Future yield increases associated with MV use will be restricted to those
attained with the switch from one MV to another.5


4 On average, farmers in Karnal have replaced wheat varieties 2 to 3 times since the introduction of MVs.
5 For wheat, this typically amounts to around 0.5-1.0% per year (Byerlee 1991). Further off in the future is
the vague prospect of increased foodgrain yield potential through biotechnical breakthroughs (Ruttan 1990).







Water quality and groundwater depletion 6
In Haryana and Karnal, the productivity of rice and wheat cultivation depends heavily on
adequate and timely irrigation. In the past major emphasis has been placed on developing
physical infrastructure: less emphasis was placed on efficient water management. Three
water-related issues appear to affect rice-wheat system productivity and resource quality:
* salinization and sodification,
* groundwater depletion, and
* water use efficiency.

Presently, 74% of net cultivated area in Haryana (97% in Kamal) is irrigated.
Unfortunately, in 65% of Haryana's irrigated area, the groundwater is brackish and should
not be used for irrigation.7 For some time, large areas of Haryana and Karnal were
affected by soil salinity and sodicity. In Karnal, however, it appears that most of the salt-
affected lands have been reclaimed through a combination of effective government
programs, and aggressive farmer interest and investment (Harrington et al. 1993b).

In areas favored by good groundwater quality (primarily in Karnal), tubewells are the
chief source of irrigation (Figure 4.8). The number of tubewells in this region increased
18-fold during the last 25 years; now there is a tubewell for every 3.7 ha. Rice is an
important crop and farmers normally irrigate it 25-30 times, usually by flooding the
fields. Extracting groundwater from deep tubewells to feed an augmentation canal has
also been important. In many areas the withdrawal of groundwater now exceeds its
recharge. Hence the water balance in much of the region is negative and the water table
continues to fall (Ojha et al. 1991). Overexploitation has reached the point that large
tracts within Karnal have been named "dark zones" (regions where further installation of
tubewells is p r aibited) (Figure 5.3).8

Virtually 100% of the rice and wheat in Haryana and Karal is irrigated. Clearly, rice-
wheat system productivity cannot be improved by merely installing more irrigation
facilities in rice-wheat areas. Improved productivity may be possible, however, through
better water management at the farm level. New technologies that promise higher rice
yields with less water are being developed. A more compelling approach to improved
water-use efficiency, however, would involve changes in water pricing policies, such that
farmers pay for the volume of water they use (Rosegrant and Svendsen 1992).9

In summary, sustained productivity of the rice-wheat system in Karnal is threatened by
groundwater depletion (leading to higher pumping expenses or, at worst, system
collapse). Although there may be room to improve water-use efficiency in rice, price
incentives are not yet in place to make these technologies attractive to farmers.

6 Limits to the expansion of irrigated area were discussed above. This section focuses on how water
management affects rice-wheat system productivity and sustainability.
7 Brackish water with low levels of salts can be used (with caution) by mixing it with canal water.
8 In contrast, where canal irrigation is the rule, e.g., Jind, Rohtak, Sonipat, and Hisar Districts, the water
table has risen rapidly, leading to waterlogging and salinization (Ojha and Singh 1991).
9 Higher water prices may foster the introduction of higher value crops, e.g., vegetables, as well as
improving water use efficiency in wheat and rice.














-2


NORTH


EAST


HARYANA




PUNJAB KL


UTTAR PRADESH ..
HISAR 'TA
SONIPAT

BHIWANI ROHTAK

RAJASTHAN
G" URGAON FARIDABAD
MAHENDRAG ARH
REWARI













Figure 5.3. Water table (in meters) fluctuation map of Karnal and Kurukshetra

Districts (area under study), 1974-91.


HIMACHAL
PRADESH

YAMUNA
NAGAR








Fertilizer use and fertilizer efficiency
An earlier section described the rapid growth in fertilizer consumption and use rates for
rice and wheat in Haryana and Karal (Figures 4.3, 4.4, and 4.5). Fertilizer use for rice
and wheat increased from nearly nothing in 1966 to between 150 and 200 kg/ha in
1990.10 The expansion of fertilizer use was virtually linear during that period, with a
growth rate in the use of NPK on the order of 12% per year (Table 5). However, fertilizer
use has been sensitive to price relationships. When fertilizer prices increased sharply in
1974, application rates dropped. The decline in the price of fertilizer relative to the price
of grain between 1974 and 1991 undoubtedly contributed to farmers' willingness to use
ever-higher amounts of fertilizer on their crops (Figure 4.4).

As fertilizer use rates have increased, has the productivity of fertilizer dwindled? This is
an important question because in diagnostic surveys (Harrington et al. 1993b), some
farmers suggested that higher fertilizer doses are needed merely to maintain rice and
wheat yields; this implies declining fertilizer productivity. A simple measure of average
fertilizer productivity can be obtained for a given crop in a given year by dividing the
yield by the fertilizer use rate. When estimated this way, it appears that average fertilizer
productivity in Haryana and Karnal has been falling, for both rice and wheat.
Appearances can be deceiving, however. This approach assumes that crop yields are zero
when no fertilizer is used (Figure 5.4).

A more realistic way to estimate the average productivity of fertilizer is to divide the
difference between the crop yield with fertilizer versus without fertilizer, by the fertilizer
use rate (Figure 5.5).11 The average fertilizer productivity for rice in both Haryana and
Karnal has tended to decline somewhat since the late 1970s. This is probably due to the
increasing popularity of basmati rice. In contrast, the average fertilizer productivity for
wheat has tended to increase slowly over the same period. This is probably due to farmer
adoption of practices that improve fertilizer efficiency. The relationship between
fertilizer use rates and wheat grain yields in Karnal is shown in Figure 5.6. Clearly, the
response of wheat yields in Karnal to higher fertilizer rates has not yet begun to fall off.

Estimates of marginal fertilizer productivity are in accord with the results described
above. Marginal fertilizer productivity can be estimated for a particular period of time as
the difference in crop yields divided by the difference in fertilizer use rates, for that
period.12 Marginal fertilizer productivity for rice, which was strong during the 1970s,
collapsed during the 1980s. In contrast, marginal fertilizer productivity for wheat, which
was weak during the 1970s, increased during the 1980s (Figure 5.7). Diminishing returns
to increases in levels of fertilizer appear to have been overpowered by farmer adoption of



10 Average fertilizer use rates in 1991 were 184 kg/ha NPK for wheat in Haryana, 205 kg/ha for wheat in
Karnal, 172 kg/ha for rice in Haryana and 168 kg/ha for rice in Karnal. As noted earlier, use of fertilizer on
rice in Karnal is low on average because of the high proportion of basmati rice in that region.
1 Crop yields from 1966 were used to estimate yields without fertilizer.
12 In this paper, three-year averages were used in all calculations of marginal fertilizer productivity. For
example, "1980 wheat yields" were estimated as the average yield for the years 1978-80, and so on.









new technologies (chemical weed control, new varieties, improved fertilizer
management) that increase the efficiency of applied fertilizer.


Fig. 5.4. Yield per kilogram of
fertilizer applied, 1968-90.


Wheat, Haryana

Rice, Haryana

Wheat, Karnal

Rice, Kamal


1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989


Fig. 5.5. Yield per kilogram of
fertilizer applied, 1969-90.


Wheat, Haryana

Rice, Haryana
,-----
Wheat, Karnal

Rice, Karna
Rice, Karnal


1976 1981 1986


80


70

aC
N 60


D 50

a~ 40


2 30

S20


10
3 10


Assumes crop yields without
fertilizer are equivalent to 1966
yields.


l A fhI !


1966


n





42


Fig. 5.6. Karnal wheat yields in
relation to fertilizer use rates.

5
4.5
4
R' 3.5
3
4 .. 3 -'----1----------1--,------

I 2.5 -m
2 m M
S1.5-
1
0.5
0 I I -l
0 50 100 150 200 250
Fertilizer use rate (kg/ha NPK)

Data taken from 1968-1990 with one observation per year. In general, fertilizer
use rates increased with the passage of time.




Fig 5.7. Yield increase per additional
kilogram of fertilizer applied,
1970-80 and 1980-90.

25

20

1 5 --.: ..:.... .. ..
i 5



10
-m ... ... ..



1970-80 1980-90
-5


I IWheat, Haryana | Rice, Haryana
SWheat, Kamal [] Rice, Kamal








An obvious question is. how long can this process continue of higher fertilizer use rates
leading to proportionately higher wheat yields? Fertilizer use rates and wheat yields are
already high in Karnal (Figure 5.8). If improvements in fertilizer efficiency for wheat
during the 1980s can be attributed to improved weed control, the adoption of a new
generation of wheat MVs, and improved timing and placement of the fertilizer itself, then
there is a good chance that emerging problems in weed control (discussed in a later
section), combined with a normal process of diminishing returns, will cause marginal
fertilizer productivity for wheat to decline during the 1990s. Consequently, it seems
unlikely that continued increases in fertilizer use rates will remain a reliable source of
growth for wheat yields.



Fig. 5.8. Trends related to fertilizer
use and efficiency, Karnal wheat,
1968-90.


250


T 200
-

S150--




5 50-
N
S0-
1967


3000


2000 -.
C,

1000
-C


1972 1977 1982 1987


-- Fertilizer use rate -*- Wheat yield per kg fertilizer
--- Wheat grain yield



As a final point, increased fertilizer use on wheat appears partly to have been driven by a
gradual reduction in the price of fertilizer relative to the price of wheat grain (Figure 4.4).
However, many fertilizer subsidies were reduced or removed in the early 1990s
(Table 7). These higher prices are almost certainly causing farmers to reassess how much
fertilizer to use.13

13 There do appear to be additional opportunities for improvements in the technical efficiency with which
fertilizer is used, however (Byerlee 1990). Certainly, recent fertilizer price increases provide an incentive
for farmers to improve technical efficiency, which may come about through improvements in nutrient








Table 7. Fertilizer prices and nutrient/grain price ratios, before and after
the withdrawal of subsidies in 1991-92
Before withdrawal After withdrawal
Item of subsidies of subsidies
Price of N (Rs/kg)
based on urea 5.11 6.65
Price of P205 (Rs/kg)
based on SSP 5.94 12.10
Kg of wheat required to
buy 1 kg of N 2.27 2.96
Kg of wheat required to
buy 1 kgof PO5 2.64 5.38
Source: FAI (1991).


Soil fertility decline
The above discussion has paid little attention to the possibility of declining soil fertility or
other forms of land degradation. The data used in the analysis above are not well suited
to addressing this question. In earlier sections, however, it was shown that legumes have
become less important in local cropping systems (Figure 3.2, Table 2) while farm survey
results indicate that continuous rice-wheat patterns have become more common
(Harrington et al. 1993b). These same surveys suggest that the use of compost and farm
yard manure (FYM) has declined, particularly in rice and wheat fields, as the number of
cattle and other large animals has declined and as limited FYM resources have been
diverted from fertilizer to fuel uses. Secondary data do confirm a decline in the number
of large animals in Haryana, whether measured in terms of animals per farm or animals
per hectare (Figure 5.9).

Taken together, these data suggest that soil fertility decline, combined with a reduction in
the quantity and quality of soil organic matter, may be a problem in Haryana. These
suspicions are reinforced by an analysis of soil test reports from Karnal region from the
past 15 years. This analysis reveals a significant decrease over time in the nutrient status
of soils, particularly with regard to phosphate, potash, and organic carbon (Mehla 1990).
In other parts of India and Nepal, long-term soil fertility trials featuring continuous rice-
wheat patterns typically indicate gradual rice yield declines (but stable wheat yields) over
a range of fertilizer treatments (Giri et al. 1993). It is important to ascertain if soil
fertility decline is important in Haryana and Karnal.


balance (including macronutrients and micronutrients) and in the timing and placement of fertilizer. Yield
increases from improved technical efficiency, however, will be obtained more slowly than past yield growth
due to higher fertilizer application levels.








Fig. 5.9. Number of large animals
in Haryana, 1981 and 1991.

8 -



6
6 -











1981 1991

S Average per holding Average per ha



Increasing incidence of insects, diseases, and weeds
As cropping systems have shifted towards continuous rice-wheat, conditions have been
created that are more favorable for the multiplication of insects, diseases, and weeds.
Unfortunately, time-series data on the incidence of these problems are not available from
the sources upon which this report has relied. However, other observers have noted the
following:

Problems of insect damage to rice in Haryana have changed over time. Kushwaha (1990)
notes that the incidence of several insects has increased since the mid-1970s, including
the whitebacked plant hopper (Sogatellafurcifera), the rice leaf folder (Cnaphalocrocis
medinalis), the yellow stemborer (Scirpophaga incertulas) and pink stemborer (Sesamia
inferens). Dhiman et al. (1990) report a greater infestation of leaf folder in more heavily
fertilized rice. The incidence of rice diseases is also said to have increased, particularly
blast, bacterial leaf blight, stem rot, and foot rot. With regard to wheat, no serious pests
are reported, but loose smut, Kamal bunt, and leaf blight can cause losses.

Weeds (especially Phalaris minor) are a major problem in wheat. A diagnostic survey
conducted in Karnal region as part of the NARS-CIMMYT-IRRI rice-wheat collaborative
project (Harrington et al. 1993b) found that Phalaris was the most important factor
reducing wheat yields. Phalaris problems are heavily concentrated in districts where
wheat is grown in rotation with rice (Table 8).






Table 8. Percentage of wheat area in different districts
of Harvana State infested with Phalaris minor (1980-81)


District Percent wheat area infested
Ambala 62
Kurukshetra 90
Karnal 90
Jind 75
Sonipat 25
Gurgaon 10


Source: Bhan Katy ).


Crop protection measures
Pest, disease, and weed problems continue to trouble farmers despite a surprisingly rapid
increase in the use of insecticides and herbicides. Pesticide use increased rapidly in
Haryana during the 1970s and 1980s (Figure 5.10). Herbicide use in particular has
increased for both rice and wheat, although the proportion of rice and wheat area covered
is quite a bit lower than expected (Figure 5.11). Herbicide use in higher in Karnal region
(48% of wheat area treated with herbicide) where the rice-wheat rotation is concentrated.

Fig. 5.10. Pesticide consumption
in Haryana, 1971-91.


6

5

-4
0


2o3
0,
E

O
1


U I I I I
I I I I


1970-71 1974-75 1978-79
Source: Directorate of Agriculture, Haryana


1982-83


1986-87 1990-91


~n~il


--I --~ -I -I ~ --I-~-I -I -I -I-I





rt







Fig. 5.11. Percent of rice and wheat
area in Haryana treated with herbicide
1981-90.


I Rice area E Wheat area


Maintaining or improving the productivity of rice and wheat, while protecting the
environment from pesticide residues, may require that researchers and farmers take a
closer look at integrated pest and weed management techniques. These techniques rely
on varieties with broad resistance, observation-driven control systems, biological control,
and a restrained use of chemicals. Integrated weed management may be particularly
important for the control of P. minor in wheat. There have been some disturbing recent
accounts of the possibility that P. minor is becoming resistant to the primary herbicide
use for its control, isoproturon.

In summary, the data available do not allow us to draw any firm conclusions, but it
appears that pests, diseases, and weeds may be increasing in importance, and that these
problems must be controlled (preferably in environmentally sound ways) in order to
maintain or improve wheat and rice productivity.

Increasing costs and decreasing profits
Among the major effects of the Green Revolution were higher farm incomes and
expanded opportunities for rural employment, as well as lower food prices for consumers.
Note, however, that in Karnal rice and wheat production have become less profitable
since the mid-1970s. Gross returns have increased, but costs have increased even more
rapidly. Consequently, returns above variable cost from rice and wheat production have





48


tended to decline -- both in absolute terms and as a proportion of gross returns (Figures
5.12 and 5.13).14

If these trends continue, farmers will probably find rice and wheat production less
attractive and foodgrain production will suffer as a consequence assuming no change in
the profitability of competing crops. If other more profitable crops cannot be found,
farmers' incomes may be reduced and the desirable processes of development associated
with the Green Revolution -- whereby higher rural incomes led to higher employment, the
alleviation of poverty, and increased demand for light manufactures -- conceivably may
be reversed.15




Fig. 5.12. Costs and net returns,
MV rice production in Karnal
1975-89 (five year averages).
1600

1400

S 1200 :

1- 1000 1i9I8 ple
w a 100l a p t Production costs
( 800 -
o
a Net returns
S600

C 400 -

200 Source: HAU, nd.

1960-61 constant
1975-79 1980-84 1985-89 prces








14 Returns above variable cost are calculated as gross returns less input costs, including seed, fertilizer,
weed control and plant protection. Land rental costs (or their equivalent) and costs associated with
irrigation are ignored.
15 Clearly the above conclusions are sensitive to input and product pricing policies and other policies that
might conceivably affect them, e.g., exchange rate and trade policy.





49


Fig. 5.13. Costs and net returns,
wheat production in Karnal

1975 to 1989 (five-year averages).
1400 -


1200


1000


- 800 -
Production costs
0
O 600 -
o Net returns
o,
- 400 -

U Source: HAU, nd.
200
1960-61 constant
Prices


1980-84


1985-89


1975-79









6. SYNTHESIS


Over the past two and a half decades, the use of new agricultural technology has
substantially altered the nature of agricultural production in India, particularly in Green
Revolution areas such as Haryana. Recently, however, annual rates of increase for rice
and wheat production have fallen off severely in both Haryana and Karnal. The
expansion of rice and wheat area has halted, growth in rice productivity has slowed, and it
appears that historical sources of productivity growth have exhausted much of their
potential. Moreover, there is reason to believe that the natural resource base devoted to
the rice-wheat cropping pattern is being degraded.

It was noted that the growth rate for production of a crop is the sum of the growth rate for
area and the growth rate for yield. It was found that wheat yield growth, a relatively
unimportant factor in an earlier period, has emerged as the single most important factor in
maintaining growth in overall foodgrain production in Haryana. Expansion of rice or
wheat area, or growth in rice yields, no longer contribute in any substantial way to
expanded foodgrain production.

Area
Growth in rice and wheat area in Haryana and Karnal in the past has been associated with
three processes:
- opening new land for cultivation,
- increasing cropping intensity, and
- substituting rice and wheat for other crops.
All three processes have exhausted much of their potential, especially in Karnal. It seems
likely that rice and wheat area growth will be even slower in the 1990s than during the
1980s.

Yields
Historical trends in rice and wheat yields might easily be taken as evidence that there is
little cause for concern about the capacity of Haryana farmers to meet future food
demands. It seems, however, that traditional sources of productivity growth have
exhausted much of their potential. Note the following:

* Rice MVs covered around 85% of the total rice area in the state in the early 1980s but
quickly declined to around 70%, because farmers shifted to basmati rice, yields of
which are only about half those of MVs. Stagnation of rice yields because of a shift
from MVs to basmati, however, is not cause for alarm. Given the higher price and
lower production costs associated with basmati, the value of production has increased
and farmers' incomes have improved. Moreover, it may be possible to breed new
basmati varieties with higher yields.

In general, however, it should be noted that further growth in the proportion of rice
and wheat area sown to MVs will no longer be a source of increased rice and wheat








yields and foodgrain production. Future yield increases associated with MV use will
be restricted to those attained with the switch from one MV to another.

* Although considerable progress has been made in reclaiming salt-affected lands in
Karnal, sustained productivity of the rice-wheat system there is threatened by
groundwater depletion (leading to higher pumping expenses or, at worst, system
collapse). Although there may be room to improve water-use efficiency in rice, price
incentives are not yet in place to make these technologies attractive to farmers.

* In diagnostic surveys, some farmers suggested that higher fertilizer doses are needed
merely to maintain rice and wheat yields; this implies declining fertilizer productivity.
Analysis of secondary data confirmed that fertilizer productivity for rice has indeed
declined, although the effect of the shift to basmati on fertilizer productivity is
unclear. Fertilizer productivity for wheat, however, has not declined, despite ever-
higher application rates. Diminishing returns to increases in levels of fertilizer appear
to have been overpowered by farmer adoption of new technologies (chemical weed
control, new varieties, improved fertilizer management) that increase the efficiency of
applied fertilizer in producing wheat. Nonetheless, emerging problems in weed
control, combined with a normal process of diminishing returns, will probably cause
marginal fertilizer productivity for wheat to decline during the 1990s. Consequently,
it seems unlikely that continued increases in fertilizer use rates will remain a reliable
source of growth for wheat yields.

* Although data used in the analysis are not well suited to addressing questions of soil
fertility decline, it was possible to show that legumes have become less important in
local cropping systems while continuous rice-wheat has become more common.
Farm surveys suggest that the use of compost and farm yard manure has declined,
particularly in rice and wheat fields, as the number of cattle and other large animals
has declined and as limited manure stocks have been diverted from fertilizer to fuel
uses. Secondary data confirm a decline in the number of large animals in Haryana,
whether measured as animals per farm or animals per hectare. It is important to
ascertain if soil fertility decline is important in Haryana and Karnal.

* The data available do not allow us to draw any firm conclusions, but it appears that
pests, diseases, and weeds may be increasing in importance, and that these problems
must be controlled (preferably in environmentally sound ways) in order to maintain or
improve wheat and rice productivity. The weed Phalaris minor is of particular
concern in wheat production, especially given the prospect that this weed may be
becoming tolerant to the primary herbicide used for its control.

Rice and wheat production are becoming less profitable over time. As a consequence,
alternative crops (e.g., sugarcane) are likely to increase in importance. An increased
diversity in crops grown by farmers may help ameliorate some of the threats to natural
resource quality and system productivity described above.





52

There may be opportunities (not discussed in the body of this paper) to reduce
production costs for wheat through zero or minimum tillage practices, and for rice
through mechanized transplanting or direct seeding. This would make foodgrains
production more attractive, but would not necessarily increase yields.

In summary, expanded foodgrain production in Haryana has depended for some time on
increased rice and wheat production in Karal, which in turn increasingly has come to
depend heavily on growth in wheat yields. It appears, however, that the pace of wheat
yield increase achieved in the past decades is unlikely to be sustained. Continued rapid
expansion of foodgrain production in Haryana is, as a consequence, unlikely.










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