• TABLE OF CONTENTS
HIDE
 Title Page
 Abstract
 Introduction
 Models
 State trend
 County trends
 Example
 Summary
 Reference
 Figures of Florida population...






Group Title: Special series publication - University of Florida. Agricultural and Biological Engineering Dept. - SS-AGE-41
Title: Population trends for Florida
CITATION PAGE IMAGE ZOOMABLE PAGE TEXT
Full Citation
STANDARD VIEW MARC VIEW
Permanent Link: http://ufdc.ufl.edu/UF00073902/00001
 Material Information
Title: Population trends for Florida state and counties
Series Title: Special series publication (University of Florida. Agricultural and Biological Engineering Dept.)
Physical Description: 13, 70 leaves : ill., map ; 28 cm.
Language: English
Creator: Overman, Allen R., 1937-
Pirozzoli, Heather J
Thourot, Charles S
University of Florida -- Agricultural and Biological Engineering Dept
Publisher: Agricultural and Biological Engineering Dept., University of Florida
Place of Publication: Gainesville
Publication Date: 1996]
 Subjects
Subject: Population -- Statistics -- Florida   ( lcsh )
Population -- History -- Statistics -- Florida   ( lcsh )
Genre: federal government publication   ( marcgt )
bibliography   ( marcgt )
statistics   ( marcgt )
non-fiction   ( marcgt )
 Notes
Bibliography: Includes bibliographical references (leaf 8).
Statement of Responsibility: by Allen R. Overman, Heather J. Pirozzoli and Charles S. Thourot.
General Note: "July 1996."
Funding: Florida Historical Agriculture and Rural Life
 Record Information
Bibliographic ID: UF00073902
Volume ID: VID00001
Source Institution: Marston Science Library, George A. Smathers Libraries, University of Florida
Holding Location: Florida Agricultural Experiment Station, Florida Cooperative Extension Service, Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services, and the Engineering and Industrial Experiment Station; Institute for Food and Agricultural Services (IFAS), University of Florida
Rights Management: All rights reserved, Board of Trustees of the University of Florida
Resource Identifier: aleph - 002263507
oclc - 36861016
notis - ALL6424

Table of Contents
    Title Page
        Title Page
    Abstract
        Page 1
    Introduction
        Page 2
    Models
        Page 3
    State trend
        Page 4
    County trends
        Page 5
    Example
        Page 5
        Page 6
    Summary
        Page 7
    Reference
        Page 8
    Figures of Florida population trend
        Page 9
        Page 10
        Page 11
        Page 12
        Page 13
        Page 14
        Page 15
        Page 16
        Page 17
        Page 18
        Page 19
        Page 20
        Page 21
        Page 22
        Page 23
        Page 24
        Page 25
        Page 26
        Page 27
        Page 28
        Page 29
        Page 30
        Page 31
        Page 32
        Page 33
        Page 34
        Page 35
        Page 36
        Page 37
        Page 38
        Page 39
        Page 40
        Page 41
        Page 42
        Page 43
        Page 44
        Page 45
        Page 46
        Page 47
        Page 48
        Page 49
        Page 50
        Page 51
        Page 52
        Page 53
        Page 54
        Page 55
        Page 56
        Page 57
        Page 58
        Page 59
        Page 60
        Page 61
        Page 62
        Page 63
        Page 64
        Page 65
        Page 66
        Page 67
        Page 68
        Page 69
        Page 70
        Page 71
        Page 72
        Page 73
        Page 74
        Page 75
        Page 76
        Page 77
        Page 78
        Page 79
        Page 80
Full Text





















Agricultural and Biological Engineering Department
Special Series Publication SS-AGE-41





Population Trends for Florida

State and Counties




by


Allen R. Overman, Heather J. Pirozzoli and Charles S. Thourot


July 1996










POPULATION TRENDS FOR FLORIDA


STATE AND COUNTIES


Allen R. Overman, Heather J. Pirozzoli and Charles S. Thourot


ABSTRACT

This document summarizes population trends in Florida for the 160-year period
between 1830 and 1990. The first official Census was taken in 1830 after Florida
became a territory of the United States in 1822. Statehood was granted in 1845, so
1995 represented the sesquicentennial year. Population has followed a steady
geometric increase from 34,700 (1830) to 12,900,000 (1990), with an average
doubling time of 19 years. In 1990 the net rate of growth was approximately 1,000
persons/day. If the past geometric trend continues, then Florida population will
reach approximately 100 million by the year 2050. Analysis of past trends by the
logistic model, on the other hand, projects a maximum population of 44 million.
Counties exhibit a variety of patterns. Advanced phase of growth is characterized
by reaching more than 75% of projected maximum by the 1990 Census, which
includes 11 counties. Rapid phase reaches less than 50% of projected maximum,
which includes 19 counties. Undetermined includes those counties for which the
growth trends are not clear, which includes 22 counties. The remaining 15
counties are between rapid and advanced phases of growth. According to the
logistic model, state population is projected to reach 22 million (50% of maximum)
around the year 2016. This rapid growth will generate large demands for
agricultural production, engineering services, education, and information. Our
challenge in the academic community is to provide training and information to meet
these needs. The format of this document gives a numerical and graphical portrait
of the state and of each county, and is intended to provide information to the public
and professionals alike. Literature references are given for persons interested in
further reading on this subject.



Allen R. Overman, Heather J. Pirozzoli and Charles S. Thourot are Professor,
Staff Assistant, and Graduate Research Assistant, respectively, Agricultural &
Biological Engineering Department, UF/ IFAS, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL
32611-0570.







Overman, Pirozzoli & Thourot, 1996


POPULATION TRENDS FOR FLORIDA: STATE AND COUNTIES

INTRODUCTION

An informed public on key issues is important for future planning. Population
growth affects each of us and everything we do. This document provides
information on the population trends in the state and counties in a form not readily
available elsewhere. Census data are presented in both tabular and graphical
format, so the reader can view the results and draw individual conclusions. Where
trends are clear enough to do so, a model has been fitted to data and projections
made into the near future. Outside the range of data used to calibrate the models,
projections are shown as dashed curves and lines to call attention to the
uncertainty of estimates.
A wide range of views has been expressed on the subject of population.
Growth drives rising demand for agricultural production, engineering services,
education, and information. More than a quarter century ago Paul Ehrlich at
Stanford University called attention to the runaway growth of the world population
(Ehrlich, 1968) and to the serious implications in store. This message was updated
in 1990 (Ehrlich and Ehrlich, 1990). The demands on the natural system and
stress on the environment have been pointed out by Lester Brown of the
Worldwatch Institute (Brown, 1995; Brown and Kane, 1994) and Joel Cohen of
Rockefeller University (Cohen, 1995). Contrasting views of Norman Meyers
(environmentalist) and Julian Simon (economist) have been published (Myers and
Simon, 1994). It is easy to become confused about this subject, and to tune out
the entire discussion. A very readable book on geography and related topics
(including population) is that of Harm de Blij (de Blij, 1995). Other books
specifically relate to Florida (Fernald and Purdum, 1992; Pierce, 1994).
Analysis of population trends involves two aspects: (1) data and (2) models.
Various sources (Cohen, 1995, Appendix 2) have summarized estimates of world
population. Data for the United States are taken from the Census conducted every
decade. The database for Florida is taken from Andriot (1993), and can also be
found in the World Almanac published each year and is readily available in most
communities. Models cover a wide spectrum from the geometric model of Malthus
to the logistic model of Verhulst to more complicated demographic models which
incorporate geographic and age distributions (Caswell, 1989). We have chosen
the logistic model because it describes the essence of the trends and is relatively
easy to use. It has been used to model various social indicators (Marchetti, 1986).
Application of the logistic model to forage production has been discussed by
Overman (1995). Virtually all models are open to criticism at some level. The
viewpoint of Charles Babbage (Mackay, 1991) appears relevant to our case: Errors
using inadequate data are much less than those using no data at all.


Population Trends for Florida







Overman, Pirozzoli & Thourot, 1996


MODELS

This document focuses on two models of population: (1) geometric and (2)
logistic. Both are relatively simple mathematically and are useful in describing
general trends. Benjamin Franklin pointed out in 1755 that the U. S. population
appeared to double every 25 years. In 1798 Thomas Malthus published an essay
on population (Petersen, 1979) in which he noted the tendency toward geometric
(exponential) increase:

Population, when unchecked, increases in a geometric ratio.
Subsistence only increases in an arithmetic ratio.

The essay set off a debate which continues to this day. Since such a trend can not
continue indefinitely due to a number of factors (such as availability of resources,
accumulation of wastes, maintenance of essential functions), the Belgian
mathematician Verhulst proposed the logistic sigmoidd) model, which is
self-limiting in structure. These models have the forms

geometric: P = P ek (Y- 1800) [1]

logistic: P = A / [1 + eb c (Y -1800)] [2]

where

P = estimated population
Y = year
Po = estimated population at year 1800
k = geometric response coefficient
A = estimated maximum population
b = logistic intercept parameter
c = logistic response coefficient

Both models can be rewritten in linearized form to describe straight lines on
semilog paper:

geometric: In [P/Po] = k (Y 1800) [3]

logistic: In [P/(A P)] = c (Y 1800) b [4]

The logistic model is considered to be the more realistic of the two, since it
approaches a maximum and is self-limiting. We use this model to estimate trends
and projections (where feasable) for the counties. A minimum of five data points
are used to calibrate the model.


Population Trends for Florida







Overman, Pirozzoli & Thourot, 1996


STATE TREND

Florida trend is best illustrated by the log graph shown in Figure 1. Note that
the vertical axis is logarithmic, and covers the range 0.0347 million (34,700) in
1830 to 12.9 million (12,900,000) in 1990. The straight line is given by

P (millions) = 0.0125 e0.0366 (Y 1800) [5]

Several things may be noted. The geometric (Malthus) model describes the trend
rather well for the 160-year period of data, with an average doubling time of 19
years. If this trend continues, then the Florida population will reach 100 million by
the year 2050. While this may seem impossible, few living in 1930 would have
expected the population to grow from 1.5 million to 13 million in 1990 (60 years
later), a nearly ten-fold increase. This graph demonstrates the strong persistence
of population growth. Many of the factors which have contributed to population
growth in Florida have been discussed by Marth and Marth (1990).
In our view, a more realistic alternative is to use the logistic model to describe
the Florida trend. The maximum value A = 44 million for Eq. [2] can be obtained by
nonlinear regresssion. Data can then be reduced to the form shown in Figure 2.
Linear regression of In [P/(A P)] on (Y 1800) leads to b = 8.20 and c = 0.0380.
The line in Figure 2 is given by

In [P/(A P)] = 0.0380 (Y 1800) 8.20 [6]

It follows that the logistic model for the state trend becomes

P (millions) = 44 / [1 + e8-20 0.0380 (Y 1800)] [7]

from which the curve in Figure 1 is constructed. Within the range of data to 1990,
both models appear to fit equally well. Since we expect the trend to level off
eventually, the logistic model appears more acceptable. Results can be presented
in linear graphical form, shown in Figure 3. Parameters listed in Eqs. [6] and [7]
(viz. 44, 8.20, and 0.0380) represent best estimates by statistical procedures. This
model projects a population of 22 million (50% of maximum) by the year 2016 and
33 million (75% of maximum) by 2045. The linearized plot helps to identify trends
which are described by the logistic model and is used in the analysis of county
data.
The geometric and logistic models both show a stronger persistence in
population growth than is often perceived. Expectation that this trend will abruptly
level off appears rather unrealistic. What seems more likely is that the rate of
growth will eventually slow down and population approach some maximum value,
as appears to have occurred in Pennsylvania (see Figure 4).


Population Trends for Florida







Overman, Pirozzoli & Thourot, 1996


COUNTY TRENDS

In the remainder of this report we adopt a one-page format to show trends for
each county. This format includes Census data, graphs showing data along with
estimates and projections (where appropriate), model parameters, and equations.
For this purpose we use only the logistic model, referenced to the year 1900.
Parameter estimates by nonlinear regression include maximum population (A),
intercept parameter (b), and response coefficient (c). Note that Yo.so and Yo.75 are
years when population is estimated to reach 50% and 75%, respectively, of
projected maximum. Linear graphs cover the period 1900 until 2040, while the log
graphs cover the period 1900 until 2020. The straight line portion of the log graphs
lends support to the utility of the logistic model. Dashed curves and lines have
been used beyond 1990 to emphasize uncertainty of the projections. Model
parameters for the counties are summarized in Table 1, except where trends were
inadequate to make estimates. Location of counties is shown in Figure 5.
Growth patterns can be characterized in a variety of ways, of which we choose
the following classification. Advanced phase of growth is characterized by having
reached more than 75% of projected maximum by the 1990 Census. Rapid phase
describes those which have reached less than 50% of projected maximum.
Undetermined include those counties for which the data are insufficient to evaluate
the model. The remaining 15 counties are between rapid and advanced phases of
growth.

EXAMPLE

Data for Alachua County are used for a detailed description of results. The
population grew from approximately 2,200 in 1830 to 182,000 in 1990. Results are
plotted in the two graphs. It is apparent from the log graph that the logistic model
describes the trend during the period 1940-1990. Statistical analysis of data
during this time interval gives the parameters listed in the table, so that the model
becomes

P (thousands) = 434 / [1 + e3.97 0.0408(Y 1900)] [8]

To make estimates from Eq. [8] a calculator which contains the function ex is
needed. Substitution of Y = 1940 into Eq. [8] leads to e2.338 = 10.36 and gives
the estimate P = 38,200 for 1940, compared to the census value of 38,607, an
error of 1.0%. Similarly, the estimate for 1990 is 185,000, compared to 181,596 for
an error of 1.0%. These estimates confirm the accuracy of the parameters.
Projections can be made by choosing a future time. For example, for the year
2020 the projected population would be 311,000, or 72% of estimated maximLm. It
should be emphasized again that these are projections and are not to be taken as
absolute. Many factors, such as public policy and events in the rest of the world,
may cause actual values to come out either lower or higher than projected.


Population Trends for Florida







Overman, Pirozzoli & Thourot, 1996


COUNTY TRENDS

In the remainder of this report we adopt a one-page format to show trends for
each county. This format includes Census data, graphs showing data along with
estimates and projections (where appropriate), model parameters, and equations.
For this purpose we use only the logistic model, referenced to the year 1900.
Parameter estimates by nonlinear regression include maximum population (A),
intercept parameter (b), and response coefficient (c). Note that Yo.so and Yo.75 are
years when population is estimated to reach 50% and 75%, respectively, of
projected maximum. Linear graphs cover the period 1900 until 2040, while the log
graphs cover the period 1900 until 2020. The straight line portion of the log graphs
lends support to the utility of the logistic model. Dashed curves and lines have
been used beyond 1990 to emphasize uncertainty of the projections. Model
parameters for the counties are summarized in Table 1, except where trends were
inadequate to make estimates. Location of counties is shown in Figure 5.
Growth patterns can be characterized in a variety of ways, of which we choose
the following classification. Advanced phase of growth is characterized by having
reached more than 75% of projected maximum by the 1990 Census. Rapid phase
describes those which have reached less than 50% of projected maximum.
Undetermined include those counties for which the data are insufficient to evaluate
the model. The remaining 15 counties are between rapid and advanced phases of
growth.

EXAMPLE

Data for Alachua County are used for a detailed description of results. The
population grew from approximately 2,200 in 1830 to 182,000 in 1990. Results are
plotted in the two graphs. It is apparent from the log graph that the logistic model
describes the trend during the period 1940-1990. Statistical analysis of data
during this time interval gives the parameters listed in the table, so that the model
becomes

P (thousands) = 434 / [1 + e3.97 0.0408(Y 1900)] [8]

To make estimates from Eq. [8] a calculator which contains the function ex is
needed. Substitution of Y = 1940 into Eq. [8] leads to e2.338 = 10.36 and gives
the estimate P = 38,200 for 1940, compared to the census value of 38,607, an
error of 1.0%. Similarly, the estimate for 1990 is 185,000, compared to 181,596 for
an error of 1.0%. These estimates confirm the accuracy of the parameters.
Projections can be made by choosing a future time. For example, for the year
2020 the projected population would be 311,000, or 72% of estimated maximLm. It
should be emphasized again that these are projections and are not to be taken as
absolute. Many factors, such as public policy and events in the rest of the world,
may cause actual values to come out either lower or higher than projected.


Population Trends for Florida







Overman, Pirozzoli & Thourot, 1996


Table 1. Parameters for County Trends in Florida.


County A b c Yo.50 Yo.75 Ref
Thousands yr-1


1. Alachua
2. Baker
3. Bay
4. Bradford
5. Brevard
6. Broward
7. Calhoun
8. Charlotte
9. Citrus
10. Clay
11. Collier
12. Columbia
13. Dade
14. De Soto
15. Dixie
16. Duval
17. Escambia
18. Flagler
19. Franklin
20. Gadsden
21. Gilchrist
22. Glades
23. Gulf
24. Hamilton
25. Hardee
26. Hendry
27. Hernando
28. Highlands
29. Hillsborough
30. Holmes
31. Indian River
32. Jackson
33. Jefferson
34. Lafayette
35. Lake
36. Lee
37. Leon


434 3.97


171
64
458
1,435

217
154
493
281
205
2,240
104
44
784
282

17


21
11

24
99
470
221
1,492

248



621
1,010
440


3.91
2.86
6.95
7.91

9.08
9.42
6.88
8.82
3.61
4.90
3.76
4.15
2.93
3.77

1.57


4.37
3.87

2.85
5.08
9.58
5.23
3.75

5.74



4.84
7.13
4.32


0.0408

0.0541
0.0252
0.0958
0.110

0.0897
0.110
0.0621
0.100
0.0250
0.0743
0.0280
0.0328
0.0514
0.0687

0.0174


0.0424
0.0922

0.0501
0.0449
0.0920
0.0490
0.0440

0.0575



0.0410
0.0716
0.0453


1997

1972
2013
1973
1972

2001
1986
2011
1988
2044
1966
2034
2026
1957
1955

1990


2003
1942

1957
2013
2004
2007
1985

2000



2018
2000
1995


2024

1993
2057
1984
1982

2013
1996
2028
1999
2088
1981
2074
2060
1978
1971

2053


2029
1954

1979
2038
2016
2029
2010

2019



2045
2015
2020


1900

1900
1900
1900
1900

1900
1900
1900
1900
1900
1900
1900
1900
1900
1900

1900


1900
1900

1900
1900
1900
1900
1900

1900



1900
1900
1900


Population Trends for Florida







Overman, Pirozzoli & Thourot, 1996


Table 1. (continued).

38. Levy -
39. Liberty -
40. Madison -
41. Manatee 554 5.16 0.0519 2000 2021 1900
42. Marion 1,120 5.96 0.0487 2022 2045 1900
43. Martin 201 7.49 0.0834 1990 2003 1900
44. Monroe 86 3.92 0.0645 1961 1978 1900
45. Nassau 202 4.53 0.0359 2026 2057 1900
46. Okaloosa 170 5.31 0.0763 1970 1984 1900
47. Okeechobee 62 6.19 0.0677 1991 2008 1900
48. Orange 1,241 4.87 0.0558 1987 2007 1900
49. Osceola -
50. Palm Beach 2,155 5.79 0.0598 1997 2015 1900
51. Pasco 373 9.30 0.116 1980 1990 1900
52. Pinellas 978 5.66 0.0840 1967 1980 1900
53. Polk 1,027 3.85 0.0380 2001 2030 1900
54. Putnam 214 3.68 0.0314 2017 2052 1900
55. Saint Johns -
56. Saint Lucie 674 6.63 0.0596 2011 2030 1900
57. Santa Rosa 347 4.88 0.0409 2019 2046 1900
58. Sarasota 412 6.29 0.0780 1981 1995 1900
59. Seminole 789 6.94 0.0710 1998 2013 1900
60. Sumter -
61. Suwannee -
62. Taylor -
63. Union -
64. Volusia 1,150 5.00 0.0472 2006 2029 1900
65. Wakulla -
66. Walton -
67. Washington -


No analysis was performed for counties with dashed (-) entries due to insufficient
trends.

SUMMARY

This document does not advocate any public policy or reaction to these trends.
Some will view these trends favorably, while others will see them in a negative
context. This is a complex issue with implications at county, state, national, and
international levels. Information is provided here to enlighten public discussion and
debate.


Population Trends for Florida







Overman, Pirozzoli & Thourot, 1996


REFERENCES

Andriot, D. 1993. Population Abstract of the United States. Documents Index.
McLean, VA.

Brown, L. R. 1995. Who Will Feed China? W. W. Norton & Co. New York, NY.

Brown, L. R. and H. Kane. 1994. Full House. W. W. Norton & Co. New York, NY.

Caswell, H. 1989. Matrix Population Models. Sinauer Associates, Inc.
Sunderland, MA.

Cohen, J. E. 1995. How Many People Can the Earth Support? W. W. Norton &
Co. New York, NY.

de Blij, H. 1995. Geography Book. John Wiley & Sons. New York, NY.

Ehrlich, P. R. 1968. The Population Bomb. Ballantine. New York, NY.

Ehrlich, P. R. and A. H. Ehrlich. 1990. The Population Explosion. Simon and
Schuster. New York, NY.

Fernald, E. A. and E. D. Purdum (eds). 1992. Atlas of Florida. University of
Florida Press. Gainesville, FL.

Mackay, A. L. 1991. A Dictionary of Scientific Quotations. Institute of Physics
Publishing. Philadelphia, PA.

Marchetti, C. 1986. Stable Rules in Social Behavior. IBM Conference. Brazilian
Academy of Sciences. Brasilia, Brazil.

Marth, D. and M. J. Marth. 1990. Florida Almanac 1990-1991. Pelican
Publishing Co. Gretna, FL.

Myers, N. and J. L. Simon. 1994. Scarcity or Abundance? A Debate on the
Environment. W. W. Norton & Co. New York, NY.

Overman, A. R. 1995. Rational Basis for the Logistic Model for Forage Grasses.
J. Plant Nutrition 18:995-1012.

Petersen, W. 1979. Malthus. Harvard University Press. Cambridge, MA.

Pierce, A. C. (ed). 1994. Florida Statistical Abstract University of Florida Press.
Gainesville, FL.


Population Trends for Florida







Overman, Pirozzoli & Thourot, 1996


1850 1900


1950 2000 2050 2100
Year


Figure 1. Florida Population Trend Log Scale.


100


10


0.1


0.01 1
18(


I I I I I
exponential /
model /
Florida / logistic
model












/


Population Trends for Florida


00







Overman, Pirozzoli & Thourot, 1996


101



100



10-1



10-2



10-3


10-4 1
1800


Fl orida
A = 44,000,000


I I ~
4/



/


1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100


Year

Figure 2. Florida Population Trend Linearized Plot.





Population Trends for Florida







Overman, Pirozzoli & Thourot, 1996


1850 1900 1950
Year


2000 2050 2100


Figure 3. Florida Population Trend Linear Scale.


10 -


0 -
1800


Population Trends for Florida







Overman, Pirozzoli & Thourot, 1996


150
1750


1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050


Year

Figure 4. Pennsylvania Population Trend Linear Scale.


Population Trends for Florida







Overman, Pirozzoli & Thourot, 1996


Figure 5. Location of Counties in Florida.


Population Trends for Florida






Population Trends for Florida

Alachua County

Year Population
1830 2,204
1840 2,282
1850 2,524
1860 8,232
1870 17,328
1880 16,462
1890 22,934
1900 32,245
1910 34,305
1920 31,689
1930 34,365
1940 38,607
1950 57,026
1960 74,074
1970 104,764
1980 151,348
1990 181,596




Parameter Estimates
A 434,000
b 3.97
c 0.0408
Yo.5o 1997
Yo.75 2024


300

250

200

150

100


0 L. I0Q
1900 1920 1940


/-



1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Year


Linear plot of population


0 cp
uc


A
P=
1+ eb-c(Y-1900)


1<-r2


n P) c(Y 1900) b
[ (A P)


Iu
1900


1920 1940


1960 1980 2000
Year


2020


P = population estimate
Y = year
A = estimated maximum population
b = intercept parameter
c = response coefficient
Y0.50 = year for 50% maximum
Yo.75 = year for 75% maximum


Log plot of population

Notes:

10'1 = 10% of maximum population
100 = 50% of maximum population
10' = 90% of maximum population
= regression
---------- = projection


Overman, Pirozzoli & Thourot, 1996


I I I I I I

Alachua
/
/
/
/


I I I I I

A = 434,000







Fr'0 0


I I


1 1 I







Overman, Pirozzoli & Thourot, 1996


Baker County


Year Population
1830 --
1840
1850
1860 --
1870 1,325
1880 2,303
1890 3,333
1900 4,516
1910 4,805
1920 5,622
1930 6,273
1940 6,510
1950 6,313
1960 7,363
1970 9,242
1980 15,289
1990 18,486




Parameter Estimates
A --
b --
c --
Y0.50
Y0.75 --


A
P=
1 + eb-c(Y-1900)

In ( = c(Y 1900) b


35

30

25

20

15

10


ni'


U
1900


P = population estimate
Y = year
A = estimated maximum population
b = intercept parameter
c = response coefficient
Yo.5o = year for 50% maximum
Yo75 = year for 75% maximum


1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Year

Linear plot of population


Notes:

nd apparent logistic trend


I I I I I I

Baker




0
0

-0
- 00


Population Trends for Florida






Overman, Pirozzoli & Thourot, 1996


Bay County


Year Population
1830
1840
1850
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910 --
1920 11,407
1930 12,091
1940 20,686
1950 42,689
1960 67,131
1970 75,283
1980 97,740
1990 126,994




Parameter Estimates
A 171,000
b 3.91
c 0.0541
Y050 1972
Yo0.5 1993


250

200

150

100


50

n


1900


1920 1940 1960 1980
Year


2000 2020 2040


Linear plot of population


1,icP
0a


A
P= A
1 + eb-c(Y-1900)


102 1
1900


In P = c(Y 1900) b
[(A -P)J


P = population estimate
Y = year
A = estimated maximum population
b = intercept parameter
c = response coefficient
Yo.50 = year for 50% maximum
Yo75 = year for 75% maximum


1920 1940 1960
Year


1980 2000


2020


Log plot of population

Notes:

101' = 10% of maximum population
100 = 50% of maximum population
10' = 90% of maximum population
= regression
--------= projection


I I I I I I

Bay



-

-/


I


I I I I I

A= 171,000


I I I I I


Population Trends for Florida






Population Trends for Florida


Bradford County


Year Population
1830 --
1840
1850
1860 --
1870 3,761
1880 6,112
1890 7,516
1900 10,295
1910 14,090
1920 12,503
1930 9,405
1940 8,717
1950 11,457
1960 12,446
1970 14,625
1980 20,023
1990 22,515




Parameter Estimates
A 64,000
b 2.86
c 0.0252
Yo.5o 2013
YO.75 2057


SA
P=
1+ eb-c(Y-1900)


In P =c(Y- 1900)-b
[(A P)


P = population estimate
Y = year
A = estimated maximum population
b = intercept parameter
c = response coefficient
Yo.s0 = year for 50% maximum
Yo.75 =year for 75% maximum


30
25
20
15


01


1900


1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Year


Linear plot of population


a.


10
10r'


10r2 I I I I I I
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Year

Log plot of population

Notes:

10" = 10% of maximum population
100 = 50% of maximum population
10' = 90% of maximum population
= regression
--------= projection


Overman, Pirozzoli & Thourot, 1996


I I I I I I

Bradford
/
/ -
/

-O


0

,- I 0I


I I I I I


A = 64,000





0 o


i I I I I







Overman, Pirozzoli & Thourot, 1996


Brevard County


Year Population
1830
1840
1850 --
1860 246
1870 1,216
1880 1,478
1890 3,401
1900 5,158
1910 4,717
1920 8,505
1930 13,283
1940 16,142
1950 23,653
1960 111,435
1970 230,006
1980 272,959
1990 398,978




Parameter Estimates
A 458,000
b 6.95
c 0.0958
Y0.50 1973
Yo.75 1984


600


400 -


200 -


u |J- *M- M w--- i --- i -- --- --
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Year

Linear plot of population


10


P 1
1 + eb-c(Y-1900)


10-2
1900


In (A-P)= c(Y 1900) b



P = population estimate
Y = year


A =
b =
C =
Y0.50
Yo.75


estimated maximum population
intercept parameter
response coefficient
= year for 50% maximum
= year for 75% maximum


1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Year


Log plot of population

Notes:

10' = 10% of maximum population
100 = 50% of maximum population
10' = 90% of maximum population
= regression
----------= projection


I I I I I I


Brevard








rl t" II


Population Trends for Florida







Overman, Pirozzoli & Thourot, 1996


Broward County


Year Population
1830
1840
1850
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910 --
1920 5,135
1930 20,094
1940 39,794
1950 83,933
1960 333,946
1970 620,100
1980 1,108,200
1990 1,255,488





Parameter Estimates
A 1,435,000
b 7.91
c 0.110
Yo.50 1972
Yo.75 1982


2500


- 2000

0


a
o
- 1500
.o
_o


Year


Linear plot of population


a.


1 + eb-c(Y-1900)


10i2 1
1900


n ( P) =c(Y-1900) b
(A- I=


1920 1940 1960
Year


1980 2000 2020


population estimate
year
estimated maximum population
intercept parameter
response coefficient
= year for 50% maximum
= year for 75% maximum


Log plot of population

Notes:

10"1 = 10% of maximum population
100 = 50% of maximum population
10' = 90% of maximum population
= regression
----------= projection


p =
Y =
A =
b =
c =
Y0.50
Y0.75


Population Trends for Florida






Overman, Pirozzoli & Thourot, 1996


Calhoun County


Year Population
1830 --
1840 1,142
1850 1,377
1860 1,446
1870 998
1880 1,580
1890 1,681
1900 5,132
1910 7,465
1920 8,775
1930 7,298
1940 8,218
1950 7,922
1960 7,422
1970 7,624
1980 9,294
1990 11,011





Parameter Estimates
A --
b --
c --
Y0.50
Y0.75 --


A
P=
S+ eb-c(Y-1900)

In(AP = c(Y 1900)-b
[(A P)


P = population estimate
Y = year


A =
b =
c =
Y0.50
Yo.75


estimated maximum population
intercept parameter
response coefficient
= year for 50% maximum
= year for 75% maximum


20


15


10


0L
19C


)0


1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Year

Linear plot of population


Notes:

no apparent logistic trend


I I I I I



Calhoun



0
0 0
0 0 00
- I


Population Trends for Florida







Overman, Pirozzoli & Thourot, 1996


Charlotte County


Year Population
1830
1840
1850
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930 4,013
1940 3,663
1950 4,286
1960 12,594
1970 27,559
1980 58,460
1990 110,975





Parameter Estimates
A 217,000
b 9.08
c 0.0897
Yo.so 2001
Yo.75 2013


350

300

250

200

150

100 -

50

0
1900


a-


P=
1+e b-c(Y-1900)


102 -
1900


I(A P) ]= )-


P = population estimate
Y = year
A = estimated maximum population
b = intercept parameter
c = response coefficient
Y0.50 = year for 50% maximum
Yo.75 = year for 75% maximum


1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Year

Linear plot of population


1920 1940 1960
Year


1980 2000


2020


Log plot of population

Notes:

10- = 10% of maximum population
100 = 50% of maximum population
10' = 90% of maximum population
= regression
--------= projection


I I I I I I


Charlotte


A=217,000






co/
/
/





0I I !


Population Trends for Florida







Overman, Pirozzoli & Thourot, 1996


Citrus County


Year Population
1830 --
1840
1850
1860
1870
1880 --
1890 2,394
1900 5,391
1910 6,731
1920 5,220
1930 5,516
1940 5,846
1950 6,111
1960 9,268
1970 19,196
1980 54,703
1990 93,515





Parameter Estimates
A 154,000
b 9.42
c 0.110
Yo.5o 1986
Yo.75 1996


A
1 + b-c(Y-1900)


n[ (A-- P)- = c(Y 1900) b
[ .(A -P)J


P = population estimate
Y = year
A = estimated maximum population
b = intercept parameter
c = response coefficient
Y0.50 = year for 50% maximum
Y0o75 = year for 75% maximum


150


50


o0
19l


S 1P
0-


00


IU-
1900


1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Year

Linear plot of population


1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Year


2020


Log plot of population

Notes:

10- = 10% of maximum population
100 = 50% of maximum population
10' = 90% of maximum population
= regression
----------= projection


I I I I I I

Citrus

/
/
/
0=



-o


)O0 i


/
A= 154,000
/
/

- /





1 1 1 1


"I" -- I I I I


I I I I I I


Population Trends for Florida


1-






Overman, Pirozzoli & Thourot, 1996


Clay County


Year Population
1830
1840
1850 --
1860 1,914
1870 2,098
1880 2,838
1890 5,154
1900 5,635
1910 6,116
1920 5,621
1930 6,859
1940 6,468
1950 14,323
1960 19,535
1970 32,059
1980 67,052
1990 105,986




Parameter Estimates
A 493,000
b 6.88
c 0.0621
YO.5o 2011
Yo.75 2028


4C


2C


1900


1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Year


Linear plot of population


- 1CP
ta


P + c-9)
1 + eb-c(Y-1900)


10"2
19


(A P)]=c(Y-1900)- b


00


1920 1940 1960
Year


1980 2000 2020


P = population estimate
Y = year
A = estimated maximum population
b = intercept parameter
c = response coefficient
Yo.50 = year for 50% maximum
Y0.75 = year for 75% maximum


Log plot of population

Notes:

10" = 10% of maximum population
100 = 50% of maximum population
10' = 90% of maximum population
= regression
--------= projection


SI I I I I I

Clay

00 -
/
/
/
/
10- / -

0*'--


A = 493,000



- ,Z,


Population Trends for Florida


1 1 I I







Overman, Pirozzoli & Thourot, 1996


Collier County


Year Population
1830
1840
1850
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930 2,883
1940 5,102
1950 6,488
1960 15,753
1970 38,040
1980 85,971
1990 152,099




Parameter Estimates
A 281,000
b 8.82
c 0.100
YO.s0 1988
Y0.75 1999


0o
1900


<, 10
0.


A
P=
1 + eb-c(Y-1900)


102 L-
1900


n[(A P) = c(Y 1900) b
I(A P) b


P = population estimate
Y = year
A = estimated maximum population
b = intercept parameter
c = response coefficient
Y.50 = year for 50% maximum
Y0.75 = year for 75% maximum


1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Year

Linear plot of population


1920 1940 1960
Year


1980 2000


2020


Log plot of population

Notes:

10 = 10% of maximur.. population
100 = 50% of maximum population
101 = 90% of maximum population
= regression
-------- = projection


A =281,000

/
/







0





Population Trends for Florida






Overman, Pirozzoli & Thourot, 1996


Columbia County


Year Population
1830 --
1840 2,102
1850 4,808
1860 4,646
1870 7,335
1880 9,589
1890 12,877
1900 17,094
1910 17,689
1920 14,290
1930 14,638
1940 16,859
1950 18,216
1960 20,277
1970 25,250
1980 35,399
1990 42,613




Parameter Estimates
A 205,000
b 3.61
c 0.0250
Yo.5o 2044
Yo.75 2088


P1 + e= -
1+e b-c(Y-1900)


In -P =c(Y 1900)-b
[(A -P)]


P = population estimate
Y = year
A = estimated maximum population
b = intercept parameter
c = response coefficient
Y0.50 = year for 50% maximum
Yo.75 = year for 75% maximum


0 1 I I
1900 1920 1940


1960 1980
Year


2000 2020 2040


Linear plot of population


a-


101' j


102
19C


1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Year


Log plot of population

Notes:

10 = 10% of maximum population
10' = 50% of maximum population
10' = 90% of maximum population
= regression
---------= projection


I I I I I


A = 205,000






-0 0, 0


I I I I I


30


Population Trends for Florida







Overman, Pirozzoli & Thourot, 1996


Dade County


4000



.C
a 3000



2 2000
_o
0
a_
0


Year Population
1830 --
1840 446
1850 159
1860 83
1870 85
1880 257
1890 861
1900 4,955
1910 11,933
1920 42,753
1930 142,955
1940 267,739
1950 495,084
1960 935,047
1970 1,267,792
1980 1,625,781
1990 1,937,094





Parameter Estimates
A 2,240,000
b 4.90
c 0.0743
Yo.5o 1966
Yo.75 1981


A
1 + eb-c(Y-1900)


In[(A P) c(Y -1900)- b


P = population estimate
Y = year
A = estimated maximum population
b = intercept parameter
c = response coefficient
Yo.so = year for 50% maximum
Y0.75 = year for 75% maximum


1000 -


1900 1920 1940


I --I I I j
1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Year


Linear plot of population


a-
~:1O2
0.


10-2 I I I
1900 1920 1940 1960
Year


1980 2000


2020


Log plot of population

Notes:

10' = 10% of maximum population
100 = 50% of maximum population
101 = 90% of maximum population
= regression
---------- = projection


I I I I I I


Dade


I-


I I I I I


A = 2,240,000


I I


Population Trends for Florida







Overman, Pirozzoli & Thourot, 1996


De Soto County


Year Population
1830
1840
1850
1860
1870
1880 --
1890 4,944
1900 8,047
1910 14,200
1920 25,434
1930 7,745
1940 7,792
1950 9,242
1960 11,683
1970 13,060
1980 19,039
1990 23,865





Parameter Estimates
A 104,000
b 3.76
c 0.0280
Yo.5o 2034
Yo.75 2074


A
P=
1 + eb-c(Y-1900)


In[(AP =c(Y -1900)-b


P = population estimate
Y = year
A = estimated maximum population
b = intercept parameter
c = response coefficient
Yo.so = year for 50% maximum
Yo.75 = year for 75% maximum


40-


30


20


01
190


0 1CP
(i


De Soto


10


10'1 r


I I



/
/
/
/


1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Year

Linear plot of population


iu- I i
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Year

Log plot of population

Notes:

10:' = 10% of max mum population
100 = 50% of maximum population
10' = 90% of maximum population
= regression
--------= projection


I I I I I

A = 104,000






0

*^


I





Population Trends for Florida


I I I I I I






Overman, Pirozzoli & Thourot, 1996


Dixie County


Year Population
1830 --
1840
1850
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920 --
1930 6,419
1940 7,018
1950 3,928
1960 4,479
1970 5,480
1980 7,751
1990 10,585





Parameter Estimates
A 44,000
b 4.15
c 0.0328
Yoso 2026
Y0.75 2060


A
P=
1 + eb-c(Y-1900)

In p = c(Y 1900) -b(
[(A P)


P = population estimate
Y = year
A = estimated maximum population
b = intercept parameter
c = response coefficient
Yo.0 = year for 50% maximum
Y,.75 = year for 75% maximum


20

15 -

10 -


O0
190


0


1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Year

Linear plot of population


iu I I I I I


A = 44,000
10'




10 -




10.2 I I

Year

Log plot of population

Notes:

10-' = 10% of maximum population
100 = 50% of maximum population
101 = 90% of maximum population
= regression
- --------- = projection


Dixie

/
/
/
/
/

00
~ I I


-


I I | a


Population Trends for Florida


35 [

30 -


D






Overman, Pirozzoli & Thourot, 1996


Duval County


Year Population
1830 1,970
1840 4,156
1850 4,539
1860 5,044
1870 11,921
1880 19,431
1890 26,800
1900 39,733
1910 75,163
1920 113,540
1930 155,503
1940 210,143
1950 304,029
1960 455,411
1970 528,865
1980 571,003
1990 672,971




Parameter Estimates
A 784,000
b 2.93
c 0.0514
YO.50 1957
Yo.75 1978


1500

1250

1000

750

500


250

900
1900


0 P


P=ebY--
1 + e b-c(Y-1900)


102 1
1900


In = c(Y 1900) b
[(A -P)J]


1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Year

Linear plot of population


1920 1940 1960
Year


1980 2000 2020


P = population estimate
Y = year
A = estimated maximum population
b = intercept parameter
c = response coefficient
Y0.50 = year for 50% maximum
Yo.75 = year for 75% maximum


Log plot of population

Notes:

10' = 10% of maximum population
100 = 50% of maximum population
101 = 90% of maximum population
= regression
--------= projection


Population Trends for Florida






Population Trends for Florida

Escambia County

Year Population
1830 2,518
1840 3,993
1850 4,351
1860 5,768
1870 7,817
1880 12,156
1890 20,188
1900 28,313
1910 38,029
1920 49,386
1930 53,594
1940 74,667
1950 112,706
1960 173,829
1970 205,334
1980 233,794
1990 262,798





Parameter Estimates
A 282,000
b 3.77
c 0.0687
YO.s0 1955
Yo.75 1971


300


200


100


1
19C


010
Q^


00


107' -


P bc(Y9)
1 + e b-c(Y-1900)


1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Year

Linear plot of population


10-2 I I
1900 1920 1940


in[(A p) =c(Y 1900) b



P = population estimate
Y = year


A =
b =
c =
Yo.50
Y0.75


estimated maximum population
intercept parameter
response coefficient
= year for 50% maximum
= year for 75% maximum


1960
Year


Log plot of population

Notes:

10"' = 10% cf maximum population
100 = 50% of maximum population
101 = 90% of maximum population
= regression
--------= projection


Overman, Pirozzoli & Thourot, 1996


Escambia








0.


I I I I I


A = 282.000


I I I


1980 2000


2020


I I I






Overman, Pirozzoli & Thourot, 1996


Flagler County


Year Population
1830 --
1840
1850
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910 --
1920 2,442
1930 2,466
1940 3,008
1950 3,367
1960 4,566
1970 4,454
1980 10,913
1990 28,701




Parameter Estimates
A --
b --
c --
Y0.50
Yo.75 --


A
P=
1 + eb-c(Y-900)

In(A- = c(Y 1900)-b
[(AP P)]


P = population estimate
Y = year
A = estimated maximum population
b = intercept parameter
c = response coefficient
Yo.50 = year for 50% maximum
Y0s75 = year for 75% maximum


10-

0
1900


1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Year

Linear plot of population


Notes:

no apparent logistic trend


Population Trends for Florida







Overman, Pirozzoli & Thourot, 1996


Franklin County


Year Population
1830 --
1840 1,030
1850 1,561
1860 1,904
1870 1,256
1880 1,791
1890 3,308
1900 4,890
1910 5,201
1920 5,318
1930 6,283
1940 5,991
1950 5,814
1960 6,576
1970 7,065
1980 7,661
1990 8,967





Parameter Estimates
A 17,000
b 1.57
c 0.0174
YO.50 1990
Y0.75 2053


15 -


1900


C-
0.ic
0 10
oT


1 eb=(Y
1+ eb-c(Y-1900)


10-2
19C


1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Year

Linear plot of population


1920 1940 1960
Year


1980 2000 2020


In[(A P) = c(Y 1900)- b



P = population estimate
Y = year


A
b=
c =
Yo.50
Yo.75


estimated maximum population
intercept parameter
response coefficient
= year for 50% maximum
= year for 75% maximum


Log plot of population

Notes:

10- = 10% of maximum population
100 = 50% of maximum population
10' = 90% of maximum population
= regression
--------= projection


Franklin





-oo


I I I I I
A= 17,000






- I





I I I





I I I I I I


Population Trends for Florida


.v


o


)0






Population Trends for Florida


Overman, Pirozzoli & Thourot, 1996


Gadsden County


Parameter Estimates
A --
b --
c
C --
Y0.50
Y0.75 --


A
P=
1 + eb-c(Y-1900)

n[ (A P) c(Y -1900) b
[( P)]


Year Population
1830 4,895
1840 5,992
1850 8,784
1860 9,396
1870 9,802
1880 12,169
1890 11,894
1900 15,294
1910 22,198
1920 23,539
1930 29,890
1940 31,450
1950 36,457
1960 41,989
1970 39,184
1980 41,565
1990 41,105


P = population estimate
Y = year
A = estimated maximum population
b = intercept parameter
c = response coefficient
Y0.50 = year for 50% maximum
Yo.75 = year for 75% maximum


80


60


40


20


0
190


1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Year

Linear plot of population


Notes:

no apparent logistic trend


0


I I I I I I


Gadsden

-


0 0000
00
S00


I I I I






Overman, Pirozzoli & Thourot, 1996


Gilchrist County


Year Population
1830
1840
1850
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920 --
1930 4,137
1940 4,250
1950 3,499
1960 2,868
1970 3,551
1980 5,767
1990 9,667




Parameter Estimates
A --
b --
c --
Yo.50
Y0.75


A
P=
1+ eb-c(Y-1900)

In p) = (Y 1900)- b


P = population estimate
Y = year
A = estimated maximum population
b = intercept parameter
c = response coefficient
Y0.50 = year for 50% maximum
Y0.75 = year for 75% maximum


10


01
19C


1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Year

Linear plot of population


Notes:

no apparent logistic trend


I I I I I I


Gilchrist



0


0
000 0

i 1 t i


Population Trends for Florida


0






Overman, Pirozzoli & Thourot, 1996


Glades County


Year Population
1830
1840
1850
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920 --
1930 2,762
1940 2,745
1950 2,199
1960 2,950
1970 3,669
1980 5,992
1990 7,591





Parameter Estimates
A 21,000
b 4.37
c 0.0424
Yo.50 2003
YO.75 2029


15 -


15


0--
1900


a-


P 1+ e (Y-1900)
1 + eb-c(Y-\900)


S I I I I I

/
/ -
Glades /
/
/
/


00o
1' I


I I I I


1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Year

Linear plot of population


u-1900 1920
1900 1920


In(A- = c(Y 1900)-b
[(A -P)j


1940 1960 1980 2000
Year


2020


P = population estimate
Y = year
A = estimated maximum population
b = intercept parameter
c = response coefficient
Y0.50 = year for 50% maximum
Yo75 = year for 75% maximum


Log plot of population

Notes:

10. = 10% of maximum population
100 = 50% of maximum population
10 = 90% of maximum population
= regression
---------- = projection


I I I I I


A = 21,000






0 I 0



- f il


I I 1 I


Population Trends for Florida


r.2







Population Trends for Florida


Gulf County


Year Population
1830 --
1840
1850
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920 --
1930 3,182
1940 6,951
1950 7,460
1960 9,937
1970 10,096
1980 10,658
1990 11,504





Parameter Estimates
A 11,000
b 3.87
c 0.0922
Yo.o 1942
Yo.75 1954


1 + e- -19
I + eb-c(Y-1900)


Gulf


0


' I
1 I I I I i I


1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Year


10 -


,nL..


1900 1920 1940


Linear plot of population


CL
a-C


1980 2000 2020


P = population estimate
Y = year
A = estimated maximum population
b = intercept parameter
c = response coefficient
Y0.50 = year for 50% maximum
Yo.75 = year for 75% maximum


Log plot of population

Notes:

10" = 10% of maximum population
100 = 50% of maximum population
101 = 90% of maximum population
= regression
--------= projection


Overman, Pirozzoli & Thourot, 1996


I I I I/

A =11,000 0
.0


0

/
/
/
/


I I I I I


10-i -



10-2
190(


3


1920 1940


1960
Year


in P) = c(Y 1900)- b
S-(A P)


I I 1 I I






Population Trends for Florida

Hamilton County

Year Population
1830 553
1840 1,464
1850 2,511
1860 4,154
1870 5,749
1880 6,790
1890 8,507
1900 11,881
1910 11,825
1920 9,873
1930 9,454
1940 9,778
1950 8,981
1960 7,705
1970 7,787
1980 8,761
1990 10,930




Parameter Estimates
A --
b --
c --
Y0.50
Y0.75


A
1 + eb-c(Y-1900)

n[(A )]=c(Y -1900)- b
[(A P)]


Overman, Pirozzoli & Thourot, 1996


15


10


09
19


P = population estimate
Y = -year
A = estimated maximum population
b = intercept parameter
c = response coefficient
Y0.50 = year for 50% maximum
YO.75 = year for 75% maximum


30


1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Year

Linear plot of population


Notes:

no apparent logistic trend


I I I I I I

Hamilton



S 0 0 0 0
00
0 0




I e n I I I


I 1 I I







Population Trends for Florida

Hardee County

Year Population
1830
1840
1850
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930 10,348
1940 10,158
1950 10,073
1960 12,370
1970 14,889
1980 19,379
1990 19,499





Parameter Estimates
A 24,000
b 2.85
c 0.0501
YO.s0 1957
Yo.75 1979


Overman, Pirozzoli & Thourot, 1996


30n -


20


10


01


L 10P

a


P1 + eb--
I+ e b-c(Y-1900)


1900


10-2
19C


(A P) =c(Y- 1900)-b
[ (A -P).


1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Year

Linear plot of population


1920 1940 1960
Year


1980 2000 2020


P = population estimate
Y = year
A = estimated maximum population
b = intercept parameter
c = response coefficient
Y0.s0 = year for 50% maximum
Yo.75 = year for 75% maximum


Log plot of population

Notes:

10' = 10% of maximum population
100 = 50% of maximum population
10' = 90% of maximum population
= regression
--------= projection


Hardee




.


/
'
- lI I I I


I I I I I

A = 24,000



--
I 0 I



- -


SI I


I I I g i


I I I I I I


--


X0






Overman, Pirozzoli & Thourot, 1996


Hendry County


Year Population
1830
1840
1850
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930 3,492
1940 5,237
1950 6,051
1960 8,119
1970 11,859
1980 18,599
1990 25,773





Parameter Estimates
A 99,000
b 5.08
c 0.0449
Yo.5s 2013
Yo.75 2038


80 -


40-


01
190


1-
< 100
Q ^


P1 +
1+e b-c(Y-1900)


102 1
1900


In P c(Y 1900)-bP)
[(A P)J


P = population estimate
Y = year
A = estimated maximum population
b = intercept parameter
c = response coefficient
YO.s0 = year for 50% maximum
Y0.75 = year for 75% maximum


I I


1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Year

Linear plot of population


I I


A = 99,000


.0


I I I


1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Year


Log plot of population

Notes:

10.1 10% of maximum population
100 = 50% of maximum population
10' = 90% of maximum population
= regression
--------= projection


S I I I I

Hendry


I I


i i 1 1 I I


30


m i


Population Trends for Florida


I I






Overman, Pirozzoli & Thourot, 1996


Hernando County


Year Population
1830
1840
1850 926
1860 1,200
1870 2,938
1880 4,248
1890 2,476
1900 3,638
1910 4,997
1920 4,548
1930 4,948
1940 5,641
1950 6,693
1960 11,205
1970 17,004
1980 44,469
1990 101,115




Parameter Estimates
A 470,000
b 9.58
c 0.0920
Y0.s5 2004
Y0.75 2016


A
P=
1 + eb-c(Y-1900)

In [(A =c(Y 1900)- b
[(A P)]


P = population estimate
Y = year
A = estimated maximum population
b = intercept parameter
c = response coefficient
Yo.50 = year for 50% maximum
Yo.75 = year for 75% maximum


150 I


100 -


50


90
19C


I 0iP
a.


ir. I h


1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Year

Linear plot of population


iu w
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 21
Year

Log plot of population

Notes:

10" = 10% of maximuri population
100 = 50% of maximum population
10' = 90% of maximum population
= regression
----------= projection


020


I I I I I




Hernando








S( i


A = 470,000


/
/
/





I, m o/ I


Population Trends for Florida


.... I I I I


03


b






Overman, Pirozzoli & Thourot, 1996


Highlands County


Year Population
1830
1840
1850
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930 9,192
1940 9,246
1950 13,636
1960 21,338
1970 29,507
1980 47,526
1990 68,432





Parameter Estimates
A 221,000
b 5.23
c 0.0490
Y0O.0 2007
Yo.75 2029


100-


50 -


0
190


a-
I' ,


A
P=
1 +, b-c(Y-1900)


1900


in = c(Y 1900) b
[(A P)]


P = population estimate
Y = year
A = estimated maximum population
b = intercept parameter
c = response coefficient
Y0.50 = year for 50% maximum
Yo.75 = year for 75% maximum


1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Year

Linear plot of population


1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Year


Log plot of population

Notes:

10-' = 10% of maximum population
100 = 50% of maximum population
10' = 90% of maximum population
= regression
--------= projection


I I I I I )
/
/
Highlands /
I
/


I I I I


I I I I I


- A = 221,000








;y
0*
-1


I I I I


oJ0 .
,I* |


)0


Population Trends for Florida






Overman, Pirozzoli & Thourot, 1996


Hillsborough County


Year Population
1830 --
1840 452
1850 2,377
1860 2,981
1870 3,216
1880 5,814
1890 14,941
1900 36,013
1910 78,374
1920 88,257
1930 153,519
1940 180,148
1950 249,894
1960 397,788
1970 490,265
1980 646,960
1990 834,054




Parameter Estimates
A 1,492,000
b 3.75
c 0.0440
YO.50 1985
Yo.75 2010


1500

1250

1000

750

500

250


0
19


I lo0
a-


A
P= A
+e, b-c(Y-1900)


P = population estimate
Y = year
A = estimated maximum population
b = intercept parameter
c = response coefficient
Yo.o = year for 50% maximum
Y.75 = year for 75% maximum


1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Year

Linear plot of population


10( 2 1 I I I- I -
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Year

Log plot of population

Notes:

101 = 10% of maximum population
100 = 50% of maximum population
101 = 90% of maximum population
= regression
--------= projection


I i i I I


Hillsborough /
/
/


I I I I I

A =1,492,000


- 0





o r
0
0J


i I i I I I


Population Trends for Florida


X)0


in(A P = c(Y- 1900)- b
L(A -P)[ ]






Overman, Pirozzoli & Thourot, 1996


Holmes County


Year Population
1830
1840 --
1850 1,205
1860 1,386
1870 1,572
1880 2,170
1890 4,336
1900 7,762
1910 11,557
1920 12,850
1930 12,924
1940 15,447
1950 13,988
1960 10,844
1970 10,720
1980 14,723
1990 15,778




Parameter Estimates
A --
b --
c --
Yo.50
Yo.75 --


A
P=
1+ eb-c(Y-1900)

In -( P) =c(Y 1900)- b
[(A P)


P = population estimate
Y = year
A = estimated maximum population
b = intercept parameter


c =
Yo.5o
Y0.75


response coefficient
= year for 50% maximum
= year for 75% maximum


25

20

15

10


u-


1900


1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Year

Linear plot of population


Notes:

no apparent logistic trend


J I I I I I I


Holmes


0 0
0 0





I I I I I I


I I I I I I


Population Trends for Florida


n






Population Trends for Florida

Indian River County

Year Population
1830
1840
1850
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920 --
1930 6,724
1940 8,957
1950 11,872
1960 25,309
1970 35,992
1980 59,896
1990 90,208




Parameter Estimates
A 248,000
b 5.74
c 0.0575
Yo.so 2000
Yo.75 2019


Overman, Pirozzoli & Thourot, 1996


1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Year

Linear plot of population


S10P


A
P=
1 + ebb-c(Y-1900)


10-2 1
1900


In( = c(Y 1900)-b
[(A -P)]


1920 1940 1960
Year


1980 2000 2020


P = population estimate
Y = year
A = estimated maximum population
b = intercept parameter
c = response coefficient
Y0.50 = year for 50% maximum
Yo.s5 = year for 75% maximum


Log plot of population

Notes:

10 = 10/Yo of maximum population
100 = 50% of maximum population
10' 90% of maximum population
= regression
----------= projection


50 -


0 -
1900






Overman, Pirozzoli & Thourot, 1996


Jackson County


Year Population
1830 3,907
1840 4,681
1850 6,639
1860 10,209
1870 9,528
1880 14,372
1890 17,544
1900 23,377
1910 29,821
1920 31,224
1930 31,969
1940 34,428
1950 34,645
1960 36,208
1970 34,434
1980 39,154
1990 41,375




Parameter Estimates
A --
b --
c --
Yo.50
Y0.75 --


A
P=
1 + eb-c(Y-1900)

[In -P =c(Y -1900)-b
(A P)


P = population estimate
Y = year
A = estimated maximum population
b = intercept parameter
c = response coefficient
Yo.s0 = year for 50% maximum
Yo.75 = year for 75% maximum


I I I I I I


75

Jackson
50

00000000


0 I I I I I
25


1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Year


Linear plot of population


Notes:

no apparent logistic trend


Population Trends for Florida






Overman, Pirozzoli & Thourot, 1996


Jefferson County


Year Population
1830 3,312
1840 5,713
1850 7,718
1860 9,876
1870 13,398
1880 16,065
1890 15,757
1900 16,195
1910 17,210
1920 14,502
1930 13,408
1940 12,032
1950 10,413
1960 9,543
1970 8,778
1980 10,703
1990 11,296




Parameter Estimates
A --
b --
c --
Y.50 --
Yo.75 --


A
P=
1+ e b-c(Y-1900)

In [ P c(Y -1900) -b
[(A P) =


P = population estimate
Y = year
A = estimated maximum population
b = intercept parameter
c = response coefficient
Yo.50 = year for 50% maximum
Yo.75 = year for 75% maximum


30 I-


20 -


10 -


0
1900


1920


1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Year


Linear plot of population


Notes:

no apparent logistic trend


Jefferson



3

000 00
0 0 00
0O


111 1 11





Population Trends for Florida







Overman, Pirozzoli & Thourot, 1996


Lafayette County


Year Population
1830
1840
1850 --
1860 2,068
1870 1,783
1880 2,441
1890 3,686
1900 4,987
1910 6,710
1920 6,242
1930 4,361
1940 4,405
1950 3,440
1960 2,889
1970 2,892
1980 4,035
1990 5,578





Parameter Estimates
A --
b --
c --
Yo.50
Y0.75 --


A
P=
1 + eb-c(Y-1900)

In (A P)=c(Y -1900)-b


b =
c =
Y0.50
o.so7
Y0.75


population estimate
year
estimated maximum population
intercept parameter
response coefficient
= year for 50% maximum
= year for 75% maximum


10


19
19C


1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Year

Linear plot of population


Notes:

no apparent logistic trend


I I I I I I



Lafayette



0
00
00

0 0 0

I I I I I


Population Trends for Florida


)0






Overman, Pirozzoli & Thourot, 1996


Lake County


Year Population
1830
1840
1850
1860
1870
1880 --
1890 8,034
1900 7,467
1910 9,509
1920 12,744
1930 23,161
1940 27,255
1950 36,340
1960 57,383
1970 69,305
1980 104,870
1990 152,104




Parameter Estimates
A 621,000
b 4.84
c 0.0410
Yo.so 2018
Yo.75 2045


400

300


200

100


Ul" .
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Year

Linear plot of population


Is~


P=
1+ e b-c(Y-1900)


10(2
191


I[ =P c(Y 1900)-b
[(A P)


00


1920 1940 1960
Year


1980 2000 2020


P = population estimate
Y = year
A = estimated maximum population
b = intercept parameter
c = response coefficient
Yo.50 = year for 50% maximum
Yo.75 = year for 75% maximum


Log plot of population

Notes:

101- = 10% of maximum population
100 = 50% of maximum population
10' = 90% of maximum population
= regression
--------= projection


I i I I

Lake /
/
/

- / -
-I

- @.


I I I I I


A = 621,000






- ^


I I I I I


Population Trends for Florida






Overman, Pirozzoli & Thourot, 1996


Lee County


Year Population
1830
1840
1850
1860
1870
1880
1890 1,414
1900 3,071
1910 6,294
1920 9,540
1930 14,990
1940 17,488
1950 23,404
1960 54,539
1970 105,216
1980 205,266
1990 335,113




Parameter Estimates
A 1,010,000
b 7.13
c 0.0716
YO.s0 2000
Yo.7s 2015


1000


1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Year

Linear plot of population


I0
5 '


A
P=
1 + eb-c(Y-1900)


102
1900


P = population estimate
Y = year
A = estimated maximum population
b = intercept paramete.-
c = response coefficient
Yo.50 = year for 50% maximum
Y0.75 = year for 75% maximum


1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Year


Log plot of population

Notes:

10' = 10% of maximum population
100 = 50% of maximum population
10' = 90% of maximum population
= regression
--------= projection


Population Trends for Florida


In [( =c(Y 1900) b
[(A P)]







Overman, Pirozzoli & Thourot, 1996


Leon County


Year Population
1830 6,494
1840 10,713
1850 11,442
1860 12,343
1870 15,236
1880 19,662
1890 17,752
1900 19,887
1910 19,427
1920 18,059
1930 23,476
1940 31,646
1950 51,590
1960 74,225
1970 103,047
1980 148,655
1990 192,493





Parameter Estimates
A 440,000
b 4.32
c 0.0453
Y0.so 1995
Yo.75 2020


400 -


300


200


100-


1900 1920 1940


1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Year


Linear plot of population


a-


1 + ebc(Y
1 + eb-c(Y-1900)


in[(A c( 900) b


P = population estimate
Y = year
A = estimated maximum population
b = intercept parameter
c = response coefficient
Yo.50 = year for 50% maximum
Y0.75 = year for 75% maximum


Iu190 10
1900 1920 1940


1960 1980 2000
Year


2020


Log plot of population

Notes:

10-' = 10% of maximum population
100 = 50% of maximum population
10' = 90% of maximum population
= regression
----------= projection


I I I I I I




/
Leon /
/


I I I I


I I I I I

A = 440.000
I









I 0 i l
00^


r2


I | 1


Population Trends for Florida






Overman, Pirozzoli & Thourot, 1996


Levy County


Year Population
1830 --
1840
1850 465
1860 1,781
1870 2,018
1880 2,767
1890 6,586
1900 8,603
1910 10,361
1920 9,921
1930 12,456
1940 12,550
1950 10,637
1960 10,364
1970 12,756
1980 19,870
1990 25,923





Parameter Estimates
A --
b --
c --
Y0.50
Y0.75 --


A
P=
1+ eb-c(Y-1900)

In(A = c(Y 1900) b
[(A P)


P = population estimate
Y = year
A = estimated maximum population
b = intercept parameter
c = response coefficient
Y0.50 = year for 50% maximum
Y.75 = year for 75% maximum


40


30


20


10


0
19(


00


1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Year


Linear plot of population


Notes:

no apparent logistic trend


I I I I I I



Levy

0

0


-00 00

I I I I I I


Population Trends for Florida






Overman, Pirozzoli & Thourot, 1996


Liberty County


Year Population
1830
1840
1850 --
1860 1,457
1870 1,050
1880 1,362
1890 1,452
1900 2,956
1910 4,700
1920 5,006
1930 4,067
1940 3,752
1950 3,182
1960 3,138
1970 3,379
1980 4,260
1990 5,569





Parameter Estimates
A --
b
c --
Yo.50
Yo.75 --


A
P=
1 + eb-c(Y-1900)

n[( P) =c(Y-1900)-b


P = population estimate
Y = year
A = estimated maximum population
b = intercept parameter
c = response coefficient
Yo.s0 = year for 50% maximum
Y0.75 = year for 75% maximum


U -I I 1 1
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2C
Year


)40


Linear plot of population


Notes:

no apparent logistic trend


I I I I I I



Liberty

0
0 0

S00


Population Trends for Florida


1






Overman, Pirozzoli & Thourot, 1996


Madison County


Year Population
1830 525
1840 2,644
1850 5,490
1860 7,779
1870 11,121
1880 14,798
1890 14,316
1900 15,446
1910 16,919
1920 16,516
1930 15,614
1940 16,190
1950 14,197
1960 14,154
1970 13,481
1980 14,894
1990 16,569





Parameter Estimates
A
b -
c ~
Y0.50
Y0.75


A
1+ eb-c(Y-1900)


In P = c(Y 1900) b
(A P)J


P = population estimate
Y = year
A = estimated maximum population
b = intercept parameter
c = response coefficient
Y0.50 = year for 50% maximum
Yo.75 = year for 75% maximum


25-

20-

15Q

10-

5

0
190C


3


Notes:

no apparent logistic trend


I I I I I I


Madison


Oo 0 0
0000





9 1 1 1 2 2


1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Year

Linear plot of population


I I 1 1 I 1


Population Trends for Florida






Overman, Pirozzoli & Thourot, 1996


Manatee County


Parameter Estimates
A 554,000
b 5.16
c 0.0519
Y0.50 2000
Yo.75 2021


A
P=
1+eb-c(Y-1900)

InA = c(Y 1900)- b


P = population estimate
Y = year
A = estimated maximum population
b = intercept parameter
c = response coefficient
Y0.50 = year for 50% maximum
Yo.- = year for 75% maximum


4C


Year Population
1830
1840
1850
1860 854
1870 1,931
1880 3,544
1890 2,895
1900 4,663
1910 9,550
1920 18,712
1930 22,502
1940 26,098
1950 34,704
1960 69,168
1970 97,115
1980 148,442
1990 211,707


1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Year

Linear plot of population


101


SlaC


10'


IU I I I
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Year

Log plot of population

Notes:

10' = 10% of maximum population
100 = 50% of maximum population
10' = 90% of maximum population
= regression
---------- = projection


20


Manatee
/
10 / .
/
/
/
0 -



M& I


I I I I I

A = 554,000








S0.
-<


Population Trends for Florida


I


I -






Overman, Pirozzoli & Thourot, 1996


Marion County


Year Population
1830
1840 --
1850 3,338
1860 8,609
1870 10,804
1880 13,046
1890 20,796
1900 24,403
1910 26,941
1920 23,968
1930 29,578
1940 31,243
1950 38,187
1960 51,616
1970 69,030
1980 122,488
1990 194,833





Parameter Estimates
A 1,120,000
b 5.96
c 0.0487
Y.50 2022
Y0.75 2045


100 -


0-
1900


< 10
o'


1 + eb-c(Y-1900)
1 + e b-c(Y-1900)


lr-2


In p( = c(Y 1900) b
[(A P)]


1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Year

Linear plot of population


IU
1900 1920 1940 1960
Year


I I
1980 2000


2020


population estimate
year
estimated maximum population
intercepC parameter
response coefficient
= year for 50% maximum
= year for 75% maximum


Log plot of population

Notes:

101 = 10% of maximum population
100 = 50% of maximum population
10' = 90% of maximum population
= regression
----------= projection


I I I I I


A =1,120,000









S0
I e I


P
Y =
A =
b =
c =
0.50
Y0.75


Population Trends for Florida


I






Overman, Pirozzoli & Thourot, 1996


Martin County


Year Population
1830 --
1840
1850
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930 5,111
1940 6,295
1950 7,807
1960 16,932
1970 28,035
1980 64,014
1990 100,900




Parameter Estimates
A 201,000
b 7.49
c 0.0834
YO.50 1990
Y075 2003


1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Year

Linear plot of population


< loP


P =190
I eb-c(Y-1900)


1902
1900


In p = c(Y 1900) b
[(A P)J


P = population estimate
Y = year


A
b =
c =
Yo.50
Y0.75


estimated maximum population
intercept parameter
response coefficient
= year for 50% maximum
= year for 75% maximum


1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Year


2020


Log plot of population

Notes:

10"' = 10% of maximum population
100 = 50% of maximum population
101 = 90% of maximum population
= regression
--------= projection


A = 201,000

/
/
/







I /1I I I I


50


0-
1900


Population Trends for Florida






Overman, Pirozzoli & Thourot, 1996


Monroe County


Year Population
1830 517
1840 688
1850 2,645
1860 2,913
1870 5,657
1880 10,940
1890 18,786
1900 18,006
1910 21,563
1920 19,550
1930 13,624
1940 14,078
1950 29,957
1960 47,921
1970 52,586
1980 63,188
1990 78,024




Parameter Estimates
A 86,000
b 3.92
c 0.0645
Yo.s0 1961
YO.75 1978


1+ebY9)
1 + eb-c(Y-1900)


150 -


100


50 -


0 I 1 I I I I
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Year

Linear plot of population


< c1 -
Q

10"I


10o2 I I
1900 1920 1940


P = population estimate
Y = year
A = estimated maximum population
b = intercept parameter
c = response coefficient
Yo.s, = year for 50% maximum
Yo75 = year for 7,5% maximum


1960
Year


1980 2000 2020


Log plot of population

Notes:

10' 10% of maximum population
100 = 50% of maximum population
10 = 90% of maximum population
= regression
----------= projection


Monroe


I I I I I


A = 86,000


I I I


Population Trends for Florida


In P)= c(Y 1900) b
(A P)]






Overman, Pirozzoli & Thourot, 1996


Nassau County


Year Population
1830 1,511
1840 1,892
1850 2,164
1860 3,664
1870 4,247
1880 6,635
1890 8,294
1900 9,654
1910 10,525
1920 11,340
1930 9,375
1940 10,826
1950 12,811
1960 17,189
1970 20,626
1980 32,894
1990 43,941





Parameter Estimates
A 202,000
b 4.53
c 0.0359
Yo.5o 2026
Y0.75 2057


A
P=
1 + eb-c(Y-1900)

In P = c(Y 1900) b
(A P)J


b =
c =
Y0.50
Y0.75


population estimate
year
estimated maximum population
intercept parameter
response coefficient
= year for 50% maximum
= year for 75% maximum


80


60


40


20


19
191


CL 1
03


00


1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Year

Linear plot of population


10-2 I I I I I I
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Year

Log plot of population

Notes:

10' = 10% of maximum population
100 = 50% of maximum population
10' = 90% of maximum population
= regression
--------= projection


I I I I I I'
/
/
Nassau /
/
/


-/




- I I I I I I


A = 202,000








S0 0
_
-


Population Trends for Florida







Population Trends for Florida

Okaloosa County

Year Population
1830 --
1840
1850
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910 --
1920 9,360
1930 9,897
1940 12,900
1950 27,533
1960 61,175
1970 88,187
1980 109,920
1990 143,776




Parameter Estimates
A 170,000
b 5.31
c 0.0763
Y.50 1970
Y.75 s1984


A
P=
+ e b-c(Y-1900)


In[ P = c(Y 1900) b
(A P)]


Overman, Pirozzoli & Thourot, 1996


1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Year

Linear plot of population


<10


,I


0


/
A =170,000 /









oI I


1 90" 1920 194
1900 1920 1940


1960
Year


1980 2000 2020


Log plot of population


P = population estimate
Y = year
A = estimated maximum population
b = intercept parameter
c = response coefficient
Y.5o = year for 50% maximum
Yo.75 = year for 75% maximum


Notes:

101 = 10% of maximum population
100 = 50% of maximum population
101 = 90% of maximum population
= regression
--------= projection


( I


50 -


0-
1900







Overman, Pirozzoli & Thourot, 1996


Okeechobee County


Year Population
1830 --
1840
1850
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920 2,132
1930 4,129
1940 3,000
1950 3,454
1960 6,424
1970 11,233
1980 20,264
1990 29,627





Parameter Estimates
A 62,000
b 6.19
c 0.0677
Yo.0 1991
Y.75 2008


10 -
0 -
1900


0C
S10
5 -


A
P=
1 + eb-c(Y-1900)


102 L
19C


In P = c(Y 1900) b
[(A P)]


P = population estimate
Y = year


A =
b =
c =
Yo.50
YO.75


estimated maximum population
intercept parameter
response coefficient
= year for 50% maximum
= year for 75% maximum


1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Year

Linear plot of population


1920 1940 1960
Year


1980 2000 2020


Log plot of population


Notes:

10' 10% of maximum population
100 = 50% of maximum population
101 = 90% of maximum population
= regression
----------= projection


i i I I I

A = 62.000







00
0


Population Trends for Florida


X0







Population Trends for Florida

Orange County

Year Population
1830 733
1840 73
1850 466
1860 987
1870 2,195
1880 6,618
1890 12,584
1900 11,374
1910 19,107
1920 19,890
1930 49,737
1940 70,074
1950 114,950
1960 263,540
1970 344,311
1980 471,016
1990 677,491





Parameter Estimates
A 1,241,000
b 4.87
c 0.0558
Yo.so 1987
Yo.75 2007


1.:


0.


0.


n


1900


0 p
0u


P=
1 + eb-c(Y-1900)


1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Year

Linear plot of population


10.2 L -'L
1900 1920


In P-- = c(Y 1900)- b
[(A P)j


P = population estimate
Y = year


A
b =
c =
Yo.s0
Yo.75


estimated maximum population
intercept parameter
response coefficient
= year for 50% maximum
= year for 75% maximum


1940 1960
Year


Log plot of population


Notes:

10' = 10% of maximum population
100 = 50% of maximum population
101 = 90% of maximum population
= regression
--------= projection


Overman, Pirozzoli & Thourot, 1996


Orange
2
/
/
8 /



4-


I I I 1I I


A= 1,241.000


I I I I


1980 2000


2020







Overman, Pirozzoli & Thourot, 1996


Osceola County


Year Population
1830 --
1840
1850
1860
1870
1880 --
1890 3,133
1900 3,444
1910 5,507
1920 7,195
1930 10,699
1940 10,119
1950 11,409
1960 19,029
1970 25,267
1980 49,287
1990 107,728





Parameter Estimates
A --
b --
c --
Y0.50
Y0.75 --


A
P=
1+ eb-c(Y-1900)

In [(A = c(Y 1900) b
[(A P)


P = population estimate
Y = year
A = estimated maximum population
b = intercept parameter
c = response. coefficient
Y0.50 = year for 50% maximum
Y0.7s = year for 75% maximum


150


100


50


0


1900


1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Year

Linear plot of population


Notes:


no apparent logistic trend


I I 1 1 1 I


Osceola



0



0
0 -

S0 9(P ,0 ,


(I i


Population Trends for Florida


ft







Overman, Pirozzoli & Thourot, 1996


Palm Beach County


Year Population
1830 --
1840-
1850
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900 --
1910 5,577
1920 18,654
1930 51,781
1940 79,989
1950 114,688
1960 228,106
1970 348,993
1980 576,863
1990 863,518





Parameter Estimates
A 2,155,000
b 5.79
c 0.0598
Y0.0 1997
Y075 2015


1900


CL
0 P
CL


P= eb-c(
1+e b-c(Y-1900)


irr2


P = population estimate
Y = year
A = estimated maximum population
b = intercept parameter
c = response coefficient
Y0.so = year for 50% maximum
Y.75 = year for 75% maximum


1900
1900


1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Year

Linear plot of population


1920 1940 1960
Year


1980 2000


Log plot of population

Notes:

10' = 10% of maximum population
100 = 50% of maximum population
10' = 90% of maximum population
= regression
--------= projection


I I 1 I I I

Palm Beach

'
/
/
/


I I I I I


A = 2.155,000





- -


I Q I I


2020


Population Trends for Florida


o


In -P--P =c(Y 1900)- b
(A P)]







Population Trends for Florida

Pasco County

Year Population
1830
1840
1850
1860
1870
1880
1890 4,249
1900 6,054
1910 7,502
1920 8,802
1930 10,574
1940 13,981
1950 20,529
1960 36,785
1970 75,955
1980 193,643
1990 281,131




Parameter Estimates
A 373,000
b 9.30
c 0.116
Yo.so 1980
Yo.75 1990


A
P=
1 + eb-c(Y-1900)

n (AP) =c(Y -1900) -b


C =
Yo.s0
Y0.75


population estimate
year
estimated maximum population
intercept parameter
response coefficient
= year for 50% maximum
= year for 75% maximum


Overman, Pirozzoli & Thourot, 1996


300-


200


100


1900 1920 1940 1960


1980 2000 2020 2040
ear


Linear plot of population


a-
a-lo


L
1900 1920 1940 1960
Year


1980 2000


2020


Log plot of population

Notes:

10'1 10% of maximum population
100 = 50% of maximum population
101 = 90% of maximum population
= regression
---------- = projection


D L I I I I I I
Pasco
400 -


/


/
/
A = 373,000


0/





0 0
I v I I


or n m e ( I


/


) 0
1 -2






Overman, Pirozzoli & Thourot, 1996


Pinellas County


Year Population
1830
1840
1850
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910 --
1920 28,265
1930 62,149
1940 91,852
1950 159,249
1960 374,665
1970 522,329
1980 778,531
1990 851,659




Parameter Estimates
A 978,000
b 5.66
c 0.0840
Yo.50 1967
YO.75 1980


0.8 1-


0.4 I-


0.0 L
1900


0\
0a


A
P= b
1 + eb-c(Y-1900)


10-2
1900


In = c(Y 1900)-b
[(A -P)]


P = population estimate
Y = year
A = estimated maximum population
b = intercept parameter
c = response coefficient
Yo.0 = year for 50% maximum
Y.7s = year for 75% maximum


O- I I I I 1 I
1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Year

Linear plot of population


I I I
/
/


/


I I i


A = 978,000







o/
/
/I I


1920 1940


1960 1980 2000 2020
Year


Log plot of population

Notes:

10 = 10% of maximum population
100 = 50% of maximum population
10 = 90% of maximum population
= regression
---------= projection


I I I I I I


Pinellas


I I I I I


Population Trends for Florida







Population Trends for Florida

Polk County

Year Population
1830 --
1840
1850
1860 --
1870 3,169
1880 3,181
1890 7,905
1900 12,472
1910 24,148
1920 38,661
1930 72,291
1940 86,665
1950 123,997
1960 195,139
1970 228,515
1980 321,652
1990 405,382




Parameter Estimates
A 1,027,000
b 3.85
c 0.0380
Yo.5o 2001
Y075 2030


Overman, Pirozzoli & Thourot, 1996


0.5 -


0.0 or
1900


S10P


A
P= b
1+ eb-c(Y-1900)


1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Year

Linear plot of population


In P- =c(Y 1900)-b
[(A -P)


1900 1920 1940 1960
Year


1980 2000 2020


P = population estimate
Y = year
A = estimated maximum population
b = intercept parameter
c = response coefficient
Yo0.o = year for 50% maximum
Y.75 = year for 75% maximum


Log plot of population

Notes:

10' = 10% of maximum population
100 = 50% of maximum population
10' = 90% of maximum population
= regression
----------= projection


Polk I I I
Polk


/
/
/
/





I __


I I I I I


A = 1,027,000


a-
-" -



-Pa

I I I I I







Overman, Pirozzoli & Thourot, 1996


Putnam County


Year Population
1830 --
1840
1850 687
1860 2,712
1870 3,821
1880 6,261
1890 11,186
1900 11,641
1910 13,096
1920 14,568
1930 18,096
1940 18,698
1950 23,615
1960 32,212
1970 36,424
1980 50,549
1990 65,070





Parameter Estimates
A 214,000
b 3.68
c 0.0314
Y0.50 2017
Y075 2052


A
P=
1 + eb-c(Y-1900)

n(A = (Y 1900)- b
(A P)


P = population estimate
Y = year
A = estimated maximum population
b = intercept parameter
c = response coefficient
Yo.0 = year for 50% maximum
Yo75 = year for 75% maximum


100


50


0a
d:10)
0.


00


1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Year

Linear plot of population


10-2 II I I I I
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Year

Log plot of population

Notes:

10' = 10% of maximum population
100 = 50% of maximum population
10' = 90% of maximum population
= regression
--------= projection


/
Putnam
-/
/
/





'


A = 214,000








0 0 0
0


1 I I i I


19(


Population Trends for Florida







Overman, Pirozzoli & Thourot, 1996


Saint Johns County


Year Population
1830 2,538
1840 2,694
1850 2,525
1860 3,038
1870 2,618
1880 4,535
1890 8,172
1900 9,165
1910 13,208
1920 13,061
1930 18,676
1940 20,012
1950 24,998
1960 30,034
1970 31,035
1980 51,303
1990 83,829





Parameter Estimates
A --
b --
c
C --
Y0.50
Yo.75 --


A
P=
1+ eb-c(Y-1900)

In -P = c(Y 1900) b
[(A P)]


P = population estimate
Y = year
A = estimated maximum population
b = intercept parameter
c = response coefficient
Yo.s0 = year for 50% maximum
Yo.75 = year for 75% maximum


100


50


nl


1900


1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Year

Linear plot of population


Notes:

no apparent logistic trend


I I I I I I




St. Johns
0


0

o0

1,0000000
I I I I I I


Population Trends for Florida


I 1 I I I






Overman, Pirozzoli & Thourot, 1996


Saint Lucie County


Year Population
1830
1840 --
1850 139
1860 --
1870
1880
1890
1900 --
1910 4,075
1920 7,886
1930 7,057
1940 11,871
1950 20,180
1960 39,294
1970 50,836
1980 87,182
1990 150,171





Parameter Estimates
A 674,000
b 6.63
c 0.0596
YO.s0 2011
Yo.75 2030


600 -


400 1


200 I


01
190


< 10
Q-
0a


P + c 900
I + e b-c(Y-1900)


10-2
190


n P = c(Y 1900)- b
[(A P)]


P = population estimate
Y = year
A = estimated maximum population
b = intercept parameter
c = response coefficient
Y0.50 = year for 50% maximum
Yo.75 = year for 75% maximum


10


1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Year

Linear plot of population


10


1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Year


2020


Log plot of population

Notes:

10" = 10% of maximum population
100 = 50% of maximum population
10' = 90% of maximum population
= regression
--------= projection


I I I I I I

St. Lucie

/
/
/
/
/
/



l~vft^ y I I I
-


/

I 0 I I/


I I I I I



A = 674,000


- ,






.I I I


Population Trends for Florida







Overman, Pirozzoli & Thourot, 1996


Santa Rosa County


Year Population
1830 868
1840
1850 2,883
1860 5,480
1870 3,312
1880 6,645
1890 7,961
1900 10,293
1910 14,897
1920 13,670
1930 14,083
1940 16,085
1950 18,554
1960 29,547
1970 37,741
1980 55,988
1990 81,608





Parameter Estimates
A 347,000
b 4.88
c 0.0409
Yo.5o 2019
Yo.75 2046


100


50


0


19C


0-
, 1CP
a.c


A
P=
1+e b-c(Y-1900)


irr2


I I I I I
/
/
Santa Rosa /
/







1 1 9 8 0 0


1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Year

Linear plot of population


IU I I-
1900 1920 1940 1960
Year


1980 2000 2020


P = population estimate
Y = year
A = estimated maximum population
b = intercept parameter
c = response coefficient
Yo0.0 = year for 50% maximum
Yo.7s = year for 75% maximum


Log plot of population

Notes:

10 = 10% of maximum population
100 = 50% of maximum population
10' = 90% of maximum population
= regression
--------= projection


A = 347.000








o-


m


)0


Population Trends for Florida


n(A-P)= c(Y 1900) -b






Overman, Pirozzoli & Thourot, 1996


Sarasota County


Year Population
1830
1840
1850
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930 12,440
1940 16,106
1950 28,827
1960 76,895
1970 120,413
1980 202,251
1990 277,776




Parameter Estimates
A 412,000
b 6.29
c 0.0780
Yo.so 1981
Yo.75 1995


100 -
0-
1900


10'

101




1a,


A
P=
1 + e b-c(Y-1900)


10-2 1
1900


1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Year

Linear plot of population


I V

A = 412,000








0/
I/ I


/
/


1920 1940 1960
Year


I I I


1980 2000


2020


P = population estimate
Y = year
A = estimated maximum population
b = intercept parameter
c = response coefficient
Y0.s0 = year for 50% maximum
Y.75 = year for 75% maximum


Log plot of population

Notes:

101 = 10% of maximum population
100 = 50% of maximum population
10' = 90% of maximum population
= regression
--------= projection


Population Trends for Florida


In(A P = c(Y 1900) b
[(A P)]






Overman, Pirozzoli & Thourot, 1996


Seminole County


Year Population
1830
1840
1850
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910 --
1920 10,986
1930 18,735
1940 22,304
1950 26,883
1960 54,947
1970 83,692
1980 179,752
1990 287,529





Parameter Estimates
A 789,000
b 6.94
c 0.0710
YO.s0 1998
Y0.75 2013


0.8 -


0.0
19C


1920 1940 1960 1980
Year


2000 2020 2040


Linear plot of population


S1CP
a-


1 + eb-c(Y-1900)


102 1
1900


1920 1940 1960
Year


1980 2000 2020


P = population estimate
Y = year
A = estimated maximum population
b = intercept parameter
c = response coefficient
Yo.50 = year for 50% maximum
Y075 = year for 75% maximum


Log plot of population

Notes:

10. = 10% of maximum population
100 = 50% of maximum population
10' = 90% of maximum population
= regression
--------= projection


I I I I I I
Seminole





/
/
/
/



I
i o-^- i i


Population Trends for Florida


30


In(A--P) = c(Y 1900)- b
[(A P)]






Overman, Pirozzoli & Thourot, 1996


Sumter County


Year Population
1830
1840
1850 --
1860 1,549
1870 2,952
1880 4,686
1890 5,363
1900 6,187
1910 6,696
1920 7,851
1930 10,644
1940 11,041
1950 11,330
1960 11,869
1970 14,839
1980 24,272
1990 31,577




Parameter Estimates
A --
b --
c --
0.50
Y0.75 --


p A
1 + eb-c(Y-1900)

n[ P = c(Y 1900)- b
[(A P)


P = population estimate
Y = year
A = estimated maximum population
b = intercept parameter
c = response coefficient
Y0.50 = year for 50% maximum
Yo.75 = year for 75% maximum


40


30


20


t i


U
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2(
Year


Linear plot of population


Notes:

no apparent logisrtic trend


Sumter
0

0


0
0000
)00


040


Population Trends for Florida







Overman, Pirozzoli & Thourot, 1996


Suwannee County


Year Population
1830 --
1840
1850 --
1860 2,303
1870 3,556
1880 7,161
1890 10,524
1900 14,554
1910 18,603
1920 19,789
1930 15,731
1940 17,073
1950 16,986
1960 14,961
1970 15,559
1980 22,287
1990 26,780





Parameter Estimates
A --
b --
c
Y0.50
Y0.75 --


A
1 + eb-c(Y-1900)

In P = c(Y 1900)- b
[(A P)


P = population estimate
Y = year
A = estimated maximum population
b = intercept parameter
c = response coefficient
Yo.50 = year for 50% maximum
Y,.75 = year for 75% maximum


20


10


'-'I


1900 1920 1940
1900 1920 1940


1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Year


Linear plot of population


Notes:

no apparent logistic trend


I I I I I i


Suwannee


0
0
S000oo00




I I I I I


I I I


Population Trends for Florida






Overman, Pirozzoli & Thourot, 1996


Taylor County


1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Year

Linear plot of population


Parameter Estimates
A --
b --
C --
Y0.50
Y0.75 --


A
P=
1 + eb-c(Y-1900)

n[ P = c(Y 1900) b
[(A P)


P = population estimate
Y = year
A = estimated maximum population
b = intercept parameter
c = response coefficient
Y0.50 = year for 50% maximum
Yo.75 = year for 75% maximum


Notes:

no apparent logistic trend


Taylor O


0 00
0O 0
00

0
3 2


U
1900


Population Trends for Florida


' I I


r






Overman, Pirozzoli & Thourot, 1996


Union County


Year Population
1830
1840
1850
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930 7,428
1940 7,094
1950 8,906
1960 6,043
1970 8,112
1980 10,166
1990 10,252





Parameter Estimates
A --
b --
c --
Y0.50
Y0.75 --


A
P=
+ e b-c(Y-1900)

In (A P)P =(Y-1900) -b


P = population estimate
Y = year
A = estimated maximum population
b = intercept parameter
c = response coefficient
Yo.s0 = year for 50% maximum
Yo.75 = year for 75% maximum


15 -


10 -


0 L
1900


1 1 I I I I



Union

00
0

0



I I I I I I
1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Year

Linear plot of population


Notes:

no apparent logistic trend


-


Population Trends for Florida






Overman, Pirozzoli & Thourot, 1996


Volusia County


Year Population
1830
1840
1850 --
1860 1,158
1870 1,723
1880 3,294
1890 8,467
1900 10,003
1910 16,510
1920 23,374
1930 42,757
1940 53,710
1950 74,229
1960 125,319
1970 169,487
1980 258,762
1990 370,712





Parameter Estimates
A 1,150,000
b 5.00
c 0.0472
Yo.5o 2006
Yo.75 2029


A
P=
1 + eb-c(Y-1900)

In (A P) =c(Y-1900)-b


P = population estimate
Y = year
A = estimated maximum population
b = intercept parameter
c = response coefficient
Y0.50 = year for 50% maximum
Y.7s = year for 75% maximum


400 -


200 -


1900
1900


aIcP
a-
e~_


-r2 I


1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Year

Linear plot of population


IU -
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 21
Year

Log plot of population

Notes:

101 = 10% of maximum population
100 = 50% of maximum population
10' = 90% of maximum population
= regression
--------= projection


020


I I I I I


Volusia /
/
/
/


I I I I


I I I I i


A =1,150,000



0 7 -





_ ,


,-o


Population Trends for Florida






Overman, Pirozzoli & Thourot, 1996


Wakulla County


Year Population
1830
1840 --
1850 1,955
1860 2,839
1870 2,506
1880 2,723
1890 3,117
1900 5,149
1910 4,802
1920 5,129
1930 5,468
1940 5,463
1950 5,258
1960 5,257
1970 6,308
1980 10,887
1990 14,202




Parameter Estimates
A --
b --
c --
Yo.50
Yo.75


A
P=
1+ eb-c(Y-1900)

n[(A )]=c(Y -1900)- b
[(A P)]


P = population estimate
Y = year
A = estimated maximum population
b = intercept parameter
c = response coefficient
Yo.so = year for 50% maximum
Yo.75 = year for 75% maximum


25

20

15

10


5(

0
19C


X)


1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Year

Linear plot of population


Notes:

no apparent logistic trend


I I I I i I



S Wakulla


0
0
O




LI I I
I I I I I l


Population Trends for Florida







Overman, Pirozzoli & Thourot, 1996


Walton County


Year Population
1830 1,207
1840 1,461
1850 1,817
1860 3,037
1870 3,041
1880 4,201
1890 4,816
1900 9,346
1910 16,460
1920 12,119
1930 14,576
1940 14,246
1950 14,725
1960 15,576
1970 16,087
1980 21,300
1990 27,760





Parameter Estimates
A --
b --
c --
Y0.50
Y0.75 --


A
P=
1 + eb-c(Y-1900)

In P = c(Y 1900) b
[(A P)


P = population estimate
Y = year
A = estimated maximum population


b =
c =
Yo.50
Yo.75
^0.75


intercept parameter
response coefficient
= year for 50% maximum
= year for 75% maximum


50

40

30

20


01
19(


00


1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Year


Linear plot of population


Notes:

no apparent logistic trend


SI I



Walton


0


0 00 00I

I I I I


-


- I i 1 1


Population Trends for Florida






Overman, Pirozzoli & Thourot, 1996


Washington County


Year Population
1830 978
1840 859
1850 1,950
1860 2,154
1870 2,302
1880 4,089
1890 6,426
1900 10,154
1910 16,403
1920 11,828
1930 12,180
1940 12,302
1950 11,888
1960 11,249
1970 11,453
1980 14,509
1990 16,919




Parameter Estimates
A --
b --
c --
Yo.50
Y0.75 --


A
P=
1+ eb-c(Y-1900)


n[(A P)]= 9O)


P = population estimate
Y = year
A = estimated maximum population


Yo.50
Y0.75


intercept parameter
response coefficient
= year for 50% maximum
= year for 75% maximum


25

20

15


90
19C


0)


1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Year

Linear plot of population


Notes:

no apparent logistic trend


I I I I I I



Washington

e e
0 0
0
000000


Population Trends for Florida




University of Florida Home Page
© 2004 - 2010 University of Florida George A. Smathers Libraries.
All rights reserved.

Acceptable Use, Copyright, and Disclaimer Statement
Last updated October 10, 2010 - - mvs