• TABLE OF CONTENTS
HIDE
 Front Cover
 Title Page
 Summary
 Table of Contents
 List of Tables
 List of Figures
 Acknowledgement
 Introduction
 Adequacy and reliability of available...
 Present cropping patterns...
 Present and historical yields
 Harvest prices
 Cost of production for selected...
 Potential future agricultural...
 References
 Appendix














Group Title: analysis of the present agricultural economy in selected irrigated areas of the Indus Plains
Title: An analysis of the present agricultural economy in selected irrigated areas of the Indus Plains
CITATION THUMBNAILS PAGE IMAGE ZOOMABLE
Full Citation
STANDARD VIEW MARC VIEW
Permanent Link: http://ufdc.ufl.edu/UF00073344/00001
 Material Information
Title: An analysis of the present agricultural economy in selected irrigated areas of the Indus Plains a report
Physical Description: ix, 90 leaves : map. ;
Language: English
Creator: Harza Engineering Company
West Pakistan Water and Power Development Authority
Publisher: Harza Engineering Company International,
Harza Engineering Company International
Place of Publication: Lahore Pakistan
Publication Date: 1964
Copyright Date: 1964
 Subjects
Subject: Water resources development -- Indus River Valley   ( lcsh )
Water resources development -- Pakistan   ( lcsh )
Genre: non-fiction   ( marcgt )
Spatial Coverage: Pakistan
 Notes
Bibliography: Includes bibliographical references (leaves 78-81).
Statement of Responsibility: by Harza Engineering Company International, prepared for Water and Power Development Authority of West Pakistan.
General Note: Ring binding.
General Note: "September, 1964."
 Record Information
Bibliographic ID: UF00073344
Volume ID: VID00001
Source Institution: University of Florida
Holding Location: University of Florida
Rights Management: All rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier: oclc - 78581837

Table of Contents
    Front Cover
        Front Cover 1
        Front Cover 2
    Title Page
        Title Page 1
        Title Page 2
    Summary
        Page i
        Page ii
    Table of Contents
        Page iii
    List of Tables
        Page iv
        Page v
        Page vi
    List of Figures
        Page vii
    Acknowledgement
        Page viii
        Page ix
    Introduction
        Page 1
    Adequacy and reliability of available data
        Page 2
        Page 3
        Page 4
        Page 5
        Page 6
    Present cropping patterns and intensities
        Page 7
        Page 8
        Page 9
        Page 10
        Page 11
        Page 12
        Page 13
        Page 14
    Present and historical yields
        Page 15
        Page 16
        Page 17
        Page 18
        Page 19
        Page 20
        Page 21
        Page 22
        Page 23
        Page 24
        Page 25
        Page 26
        Page 27
        Page 28
        Page 29
        Page 30
        Page 31
        Page 32
        Page 33
        Page 34
        Page 35
        Page 36
        Page 37
        Page 38
    Harvest prices
        Page 39
        Page 40
        Page 41
        Page 42
        Page 43
        Page 44
        Page 45
        Page 46
        Page 47
        Page 48
    Cost of production for selected yield levels
        Page 49
        Page 50
        Page 51
        Page 52
        Page 53
        Page 54
        Page 55
        Page 56
        Page 57
        Page 58
        Page 59
    Potential future agricultural conditions
        Page 60
        Page 61
        Page 62
        Page 63
        Page 64
        Page 65
        Page 66
        Page 67
        Page 68
        Page 69
        Page 70
        Page 71
        Page 72
        Page 73
        Page 74
        Page 75
        Page 76
        Page 77
    References
        Page 78
        Page 79
        Page 80
        Page 81
    Appendix
        Page 82
        Page 83
        Page 84
        Page 85
        Page 86
        Page 87
        Page 88
        Page 89
        Page 90
Full Text







AN ANALYSIS OF
THE PRESENT AGRICULTURAL ECONOMY
IN SELECTED IRRIGATED AREAS OF THE INDUS PLAINS


A REPORT BY
HARZA ENGINEERING COMPANY INTERNATIONAL





PREPARED FOR
WATER AND POWER DEVELOPMENT AUTHORITY
OF WEST PAKISTAN








LAHORE, WEST PAKISTAN
SEPTEMBER, 1964








U.S.. R,. CH/N
S--* .,'". HUNZA
T'. , / NA(AR
lN Z GILGIT AGENCY JALTSTAN

%'' J AMMU
4fH r O NAND
.' A KASH M I R


S


CHAGAI


KHARAN


MAKRAN


LEGEND:


Arabian Sea


M.H.A.


International boundary ---.....

Divisional boundary - -....

District boundary - .---.,
Irrigated areas ., .
Selected for Study /

WEST PAKISTAN
WATER AND POWER DEVELOPMENT AUTHORITY



STUDY AREAS

HARZA ENGINEERING CO. INTERNATIONAL
LAHORE DATE 1DWG. No.
LAHORE D I : :


---


J 4


--


G ic







SUMMARY


This report provides an analysis of readily available agricultural data
for irrigated areas of the Indus Plains that have a high priority for water
from the proposed Tarbela Project. Thete is considerable variability in the
reliability of these data. Judgements of present agricultural conditions
based on them, however, are considered the best that can be made without
considerable additional study. Judgements of the rate of change in farm
management factors that will determine the future agricultural economy are
also provided. These should be carefully considered when projecting the
future "with-" and "without-" Tarbela project conditions.

Maior crops p-re-erly gro. ;- '&k *dy crecs are wheat, cotton,
sugarcane, millets, rice and fodders. Fruits and vegetables are important
only in localized areas. Average cropping intensities, for the kharif and
rabi seasons combined, range from a low of 23 percent of culturable commanded
acreage in the Ghotki area of Former Sind to a high of 109 percent in the
Haveli-Sidhnai canal areas in the Former Punjab. Present intensities are
the function of less than an optimum water supply as is reflected in part by
relatively low yield levels.

Average yield levels have remained more or less static during the
1950-51 through i962-63 period. Maximum yields attained by a few pro-
gressive farmers exceed average levels attained in more technologically
developed foreign countries. These few farmers, however, have only a
negligible impact on average yield levels.

Trends in harvest prices since 1950 have been generally insignificant
(except for a significant rise in American cotton prices). The wholesale
market prices of fruits and vegetables are comparatively high but the farmer
gets only part of these prices. The farm price for fruits appears to be only
60 percent of the wholesa!c market price. In the case of vegetables, the
farm price was estimated to be 80 percent. There is essentially no market
for fodder beyond the village level and present local prices are extremely
low.

Manual and bullock labor make up a high proportion of crop produc-
tion costs. Land and water costs are also major items. The cost of family
labor avrr 2 bou" 22 pc:c'r'. of ic;a costs. Total costs seem to rise
significantly with increasing yields. The analyses were not refined enough,
however, to establish differences by size of farm in the selected study areas.

A major improvement in the agricultural economy can be achieved
prior to the completion of the Tarbela Project in 1973. A number of tube-
well drainage projects are scheduled during the next ten years. The excess
water will be utilized to the fullest extent for leaching (reclaiming) and
adequately irrigating the land under cultivation, as has already been
demonstrated in SCARP No. 1. Cropping intensities of up to 150 percent
could thus be achieved by 1973, provided the necessary factors of production









are made available and their adoption is guided by an effective extension
and education program.

Projected average yield increases applicable to the study areas have
recently been published by the Interior-White House Panel and Harza
Engineering Company International. The Panel projections appear to be
too optimistic when viewed in light of projected population growth during
the same period. The earlier Harza projections, however, appear to be
attainable. They drop to a level of 1.61 percent fifteen years after
reclamation and could probably be maintained indefinitely at that level.
Such increases are being realised in more f'!lly developed countries
because of continued improvements in farm technology.

The reader should not lose sight of the fact that both available sets
of projections are for an average of all crops. The variation among
individual crops must be established before a detailed project evaluation
can be made. In any case, the present agricultural conditions cannot be
used to represent the future "without" Tarbela situation. Estimates of
probable increases in output during the next ten years must be taken into
account.







-iii-

CONTENTS


Summary . . . . . .....

Acknowledgement . . . . .

Introduction . . . . .....

Adequacy and Reliability of Available Data

Present Cropping Patterns and Intensities ..


Cropping Patterns . .

Cropping intensities .

Present and Historical Yields .

Field Crops . . .

Frrjit. . . . .

Vegetables . . .

Green Fodder. ..

Harvest Frices . . . .

Field Crops .....

Fruit and Vegetables


. . . . . ..... .







. . ... . .
eeoeeoeooooooo

















ooooeoeeoeoeeoo


Green Fodder. . . . ..


Cost of Production for Selected Yield Levels . . . . .

Potential Future Agricultural Conditions . . . . .

Future Cropping Patterns and Intensities . . . .


Effect of improved Farm Management Practices

Long-term Yield Projections. . . . .

References...................

Appendix ...................


* *

* 9 .


. . . 0


. . .


i
Page




VIII

1

2

7

7

7

15

15

24

31

34

39


39

39

48

49

60

60

68

72

78

E2


. . .


. . . . .








r




-iv-

LIST OF TABLES

No. Title

1. Average Cropping Patterns and Intensities in Selected
Canal Areas, 1959-61 ...............

2. Actual C.C.AO and Cropping Intensities of Selected
Reclamation Plots, SCARP No. 1, 1962 . . . .

3. Actual C.C.A. and Cropping Intensities of Selected
Farms in Three Districts, 1963-64 . . . . .

4. Yield per Irrigaoed Acre of Crops in Multan District,
1950-51 through 1962-63 . . . . . . .

5. Yield per Ir,,ga'ed Acre of Crops in Bahawalpur District,
1950-51 through 1962-63. . . . . . . .

6. Yield per li:igated Acre of Crops in Mianwali District,
1950-51 through 1962-63. . . . . . . .

7. Yield per irrigated Acre of Crops in Sargodha District,
1950-51 tlhroush 1962-63 . . . ... .

8. Estimates of Present Yields of Farm Crops, Khairpur and
Ghotki Areas....... .. . . . .

9. Average Yields in Selected Countries, 1956-59 . .

10. Highest Rice Yields in the Gujranwala District, 1963 .

11. Highest Cotton q ':-:. ':1 'he Multan Division, 1963

12. Maximum Yields for Selected Crops, Reported by the
Director of Agriculture, Lahore Region . . . .

13. Maximum Crop Yields. Reported in the Weekly Bulletin,
Ziraat Nama, September 1962. . . . . . .

14. Highest Reported Crop Yields in the Former Punjob . .

15. Acreage and Production of Fruits in the Lahore Division,
1955 through 1962 .................

16. Acreage and Production of Mangoes in the Multan
District, 1962 . . . . . . .


Page


8


12


13


16


17


18


19


20

22

23

23


25


25

26


28








No. Title Page

17. Average Gross Crop Value of Fruits in Three Irrigated
Areas of the Former Punjab . . . . . . 32

18. Area and Production of Vegetables in the Multan District
1956-57and 1957-58 ............... 32

19. Average Yields of Vegetables in Unspecified Areas of
West Pakistan . . . . . ... 33

20. Average Yields of Vegetables in the Former Punjab . 35

21. Average Yields of Fruits and Vegetables in the Khairpur
and GhotkiAreas . . . . . ....... 35

22. Yields of Green Fodder in the Former Punjab . .. 36

23. Yields of Usual Fodder Crops in the Former Punjab . 37

24. Harvest Price of Rice in Selected Districts, 1950-63 . 40

25. Harvest Price of Wheat in Selected Districts, 1950-63. 41

26. Harvest Price of Raw Sugar in Selected Districts, 1950-63 42

27. Harvest Price of Cotton American, (Unginned) in Selected
Districts, 1950-63 ................. 43

28. Harvest Price of Cotton Desi, (Unginned) in Selected
Districts, 1950-63 . . . . . . ..... 44

29. Farm Prices of Agricultural Products in Selected Areas
of the Former Sind . . . . . . . .. 45

30. Average Farm Prices of Fruits and Vegetables in Selected
Districts, 1961 through 1963 . . . . . 47

31. Cost of Production of Rice (Paddy) per Acre with 15
Maunds Yield per Acre . . . . . . .. 51

32. Cost of Production of Wheat per Acre at Different Levels
of Production . . . . . . . . 52

33. Cost of Production of Maize per Acre at Different Levels
of Production.. .. .............. 53




-vi-


No. Title Page

34. Cost of Production of Sugarcane per Acre at Different
Levels of Production . . .. . . . . 54

35. Cost of Production of Cotton per Acre at Different Levels
of Production .. .. . . . . . . 55

36. Cost of Production of Vegetables per Acre at Different
Levelsof Production ................ 56

37. Cost of Production of Fodders per Acre at Different
..-'. -< 9: ],r>;- : ................ 57

38. Share of Manual Labor in the Cost of Production of Crops 59

39. Feasible Future Cropping Patterns and Intensities in
Selected Irrigated Areas of the Indus Plains . . . 62

40. Increases in Yield per Acre due to Increased Water Supply 70

41. Estimated Yield Increases of Various Crops due to Soil
Desalination as a Function of Initial Salt Contents . 71

42. Fertilizer Application and Increases in Yields . . 73

43. Estimates of Yield Increases due to Improved Seeds and
Plant Protection Measures . . . . . . .. 74

44. Projected Crop Yields as a Percentage of Present Yields
in the Indus Plains ............ . . 76






-vii-


LIST OF FIGURES


N


o. Title

1. Growth Periods of Major Crops in Selected Areas
of the Former Sind and the Funjab . . . . .

2. Harvest Prices of Cotton (American) at the Multan
..-.!. .. . . . . . . . .

3. Future Cropping Fatterns of 150 Percent Intensity,
Haveli and Sidhnai Canal Areas . . . . . .

4. Future Cropping Patterns of 150 Percent Intensity,
Mailsi Canal Area . . . . . . .

5. Future Cropping Patterns of 150 Percent Intensity,
Bahawal, Paninad and Abbasia Canal Areas . . . .

6. Future Cropping Patterns of 150 Percent Intensity,
Upper Thai Area . . . . . . ..

7. Future Cropping Patterns of 150 Percent Intensity,
Ghotki and Khairpur Areas . . . . . . .


64


65


66






-viii-
-VI I -


ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

This report was prepared as a team effort by the Irrigation Agriculture
Branch under the general direction of Mr. M. Maasland, Chief, Reclamation
Division. The text was prepared by Dr. K.C. Nobe, Chief, Irrigation
Agriculture Branch and Dr. A.M. Chaudhry, Senior Agronomist. Mr. N.A.
Goraya, Senior Agronomist, assembled and evaluated the cost of crop produc-
tion data. Messrs. Hussain, Iqbal and Manzoor assisted in the collection and
evaluation of basic data on acreage, yields and prices.

Major data sources included the Department of Agriculture, Department
of Land Revenue, Planning & Development Department, Board of Economic
Inquiry, Punjab University, and the West Pakistan Agricultural University.

Informal discussions were held with a number of agricultural specialists.
We hereby wish to acknowledge in particular the contributions of the follow-
ing persons:


Mr. Malik Khuda Bukhsh Bucha


Prof. Oddvar Arisvek



Dr. L.H. Huizenga



Mr. Mohammad Shafi Gill


Prof. Barkat Ali Qureshi



Dr. J.B. Harrington



Dr. D.M. Cureshi



Dr. Walter Falcon


Secretary, Department of Agriculture,
West Pakistan, Lahore

Economic Advisor, Planning &
Development Department, West
Pakistan, Lahore

Agricultural Economist, World Bank
Survey Group, Ilaco, Inc.,
Netherlands

Director of Agriculture, Lahore
Region, Lahore

Head, Department of Agricultural
Economics, West Pakistan Agricultural
University, Lyallpur

Wheat improvement Advisor,
Department of Agriculture, West
Pakistan, Lahore

General Economist, Planning &
Development Department, West
Pakistan, Lahore

Advisor, Planning Commission,
Karachi






-ix-


Dr. Peter Hildebrand


Mr. Ghulam Mohammad


Chief Economist, Tipton & Kalmbach
Inc., WAPDA Consultants, Lahore

Superintendent, Statistical Cell,
Office of the Director of Land
Records, West Pakistan, Lahore






AN ANALYSIS OF THE PRESENT AGRICULTURAL ECONOMY
IN SELECTED IRRIGATED AREAS OF THE INDUS PLAINS


INTRODUCTION

This report is a summary and evaluation of data available to Harza
Engineering Company International on the present agricultural economy
in selected irrigated areas of the indus Plains. These data are applicable
to areas that have high priority for water from the proposed Tarbela Reser-
voir, with the exception of the R nkri #rp# for fwhnch data are presently not
available to us. The study areas include seven canal commands in the
Former Punjab and Bahawalpur (Haveli, Sidhnai, Mailsi, Bahawal, Punjab,
Abbasia and Thal), and the Khairpur and Ghoeki canal commands in the
Former Sind (see map).

Data are provided on the following items:

a) Adequacy and reliability of available dc~a; b) Cropping patterns and
intensities; c) Presen. and historical yields; d) Harvest prices; e) Cost of
crop production; and c) Potenticl cropping patterns, intensities and yields.

This report replaces the August 10 draft entitled, "Present Crop Yields,
Prices, Cost of Production and intensities, and Estimates of Potential Yields,
in Selected Irrigated Areas of the Indus Plains". It was prepared in pre-
liminary form for discussion purpose-s This revision can now serve as a
starting point for an evaluation of net ojriculturul benefits attributable to the
proposed Tarbela Dam Projecto

The report may also serve as background material for the Indus Basin
Special Study of the World Bank. In its preparation, we were cognizant
of the World Bank's "Memorandum to the Consultants Methods and
Economic Guidelines", dated June 9, 1964. These guidelines were
followed except where available data were aggregated in such a manner
as to make certain separations impossible. These exceptions are noted in
the text.





-2-


ADEQUACY AND RELIABILITY OF AVAILABLE DATA

Farm management statistics for irrigated agriculture in the Indus Plains
are inadequate and much of the available data are subjective in nature.
Generally speaking, however, agricultural data for the Former Punjab are
much more complete and of higher quality than data for the Former Sind.

There is considerable variation in the reliability of data in this pre-
liminary report. These data can serve a useful purpose, however, as a starting
point in preliminary economic evaluations of current irrigation and reclama-
tion projects. More work needs to be done before data are developed that
can be used with confidence in feasibility reports on projects to be initiated
at some future date.

An analysis of data adequacy and reliability for the various subjects
covered in this report, and suggestions of needed additional studies, are
provided below.

Present Cropping Patterns and Intensities

The data on present cropping patterns and intensities are considered the
most reliable information in this report. Considerable work on these items
has recently been done and several studies are currently underway. Major
data sources include:

1) Department of Agricultural Economics, Ministry of Agriculture,
Government of Pakistan, Rawalpindi. This department recently completed
a study of cropping patterns and intensities in 15 districts of West Fakistan.
The study areas totaled 45, 164 acres and records were obtained from 2, 160
farmers. The study was well designed and the results are considered highly
reliable.

2) Board of Economic Inquiry, Punjab University, Lahore. Consider-
able information is available from this source. It consists of data taken from
farm accounts and family budgets, and cost of production studies. The data
are considered reliable but caution must be exercised in extrapolating the
data from individual! :';Jdies to broad regioral evaluations.

3) Field Surveys. Useful data on cropping patterns and intensities
are being developed by various engineering consulting firms in West
Pakistan. Cf particular importance are the surveys of Hunting & MacDonald
in the Former Sind and Tipton & Kalmbach in the Former Punjab. Data on
cropping patterns and intensities are also being accumulated as a by-product
of various kinds of farm surveys, completed and/or underway, by the
Irrigation Agriculture Branch of Harza Engineering Company International.
Generally speaking, these data are detailed but based on small samples.





f
-3-

4) Irrigation Department. Irrigated acreage data recorded by the
Irrigation Department are useful for developing present cropping patterns
and intensities for the specific canal commands of the study areas.

Area Statistics

Acreage data are collected by the Department of Revenue and tabulated
by the Director of Land Records. These statistics are complete and considered
reliable for the Former Punjab and Bahawalpur but adequate similar data have
not been collected for the Former Sind. Collection of acreage data for the
Former Sind deserves a high priority. It would be desirable in both regions to
collect acreage data at the sub-district level for detailed analysis of project
benefits.

Statistical Paper No. 1 of the Institute of Development Economics,
Karachi, is a useful reference on agricultural statistics for the Former Punjab .
Of particular interest is an article by Dr. Walter Falcon (on pages 3-9 of the
report) entitled, "Reliability of Punjab Agricultural Data". He states in
part ". . From what limited research had been conducted, it is logical to
assume that the area data for the major agricultural crops are probably correct
to within plus or minus 5 percent". Our experience to date generally supports
his findings.

Present and Historical Yields

Crop yield data for the study areas in the Former Punjab and Bahawalpur
were obtained from the Department of Revenue and the Department of
Agriculture. Similar data for the Khairpur and Ghotki study areas in the
Former Sind are not available from these sources. Our estimates for the
Khairpur area were based on field survey data developed by the L.. P.
Consultants, Hunting & MacDonald 2/. Available data for the Ghotki area
are limited to general estimates given in a previous WAPDA report -/.

Yield estimates of field crops by the Revenue and Agriculture Depart-
ments are less than the actual farm yields. Dr. D.M. Oureshi, General
Economist of the Planning & Development Department, Lahore, has con-
ducted studies on ihis matter. He feels that wheat yields have traditionally
been underestimated by about 15 percent and other field crops by about 10
percent. His findings on wheat have recently been accepted by the Central
Government. Yields for the study areas in the Former Punjab are published
statistics for the 13-year period from 1950-51 through 1962-63. These
should probably be adjusted upward in accordance with Dr. Qureshi's
findings but at a lower rate than he suggests (see text).

Since similar historical yields are not available for the Former Sind,
it will be necessary to adjust available data on recent yields for this region




-4-


to account for year to year variation resulting from climatic and other
limiting factors. The statistical significance derived from regression
analyses of the yield trend data for the Former Punjab study areas may be
a useful tool for making these adjustments.

The Lepartment of Agriculture has recently been made responsible for
reporting yield data. Improved statistical techniques are being employed
for this purpose. As a result, the reliability of these data should increase
considerably. An improvement in the data for the Former Sind is also
expected. Detailed farm surveys by the L. I.P. Consultants are now under-
way in thc, r~FIC.-.

The reliability and adequacy of yield data for fruits and vegetables
is even more limiting than for field crops., For example, the most recent
yield and acreage data on mangoes, for West Pakistan as a whole, are for
the 1955 season. To some extent yield experiments by the universities and
agricultural experiment stations will be useful but adjustments of their yields
to reflect average farm conditions will have to be made. The extent to which
farm surveys have collected data on these crops should be extensively
explored. Data currently being collected by the L.I.P. Consultants, Tipton
I Kalmbach, Inc., various Government agencies. and the like should also
be assembled and evaluated.

Few data are available on fodder yields because most of the market
transactions are at the village level where records are seldom kept. Fodder
is usually sold standing in the field. Collection of survey data in regard to
average yields and prices paid may be a partial solution to the present in-
adequate data situation. Review of university studies should also be made.

Estimates of Harvest Prices

Harvest price data for the 1950-51 through 1962-63 period are provided
in this report for four markets in the Former Punjab and Bahawalpur. These
are Multan, Bahawalpur, Mianwali and Sargodha. Significance of the price
trend lines was established for the Multan market by Tipton I Kalmbach, Inc.
and for the other three markets by Harza Engineering Company International.

Falcon1- reports on the reliability of price data as follows:

"Since prices to farmers are not easy to verify, there
exist only guesses as to the error component in the
reported harvest prices. Most Pakistani agricultural
authorities indicate that the prices are correct to
within 5 to 10 percent .

Almost no price data, other than the Hunting & MacDonald survey





results a:nd WAPDA's preliminary e hirres, ore available for the Former Sind0
Additional data io:- all areas should be collected and evaluated.

Wholesale market price datc for fruits and vege'ablrk were obtained
from a monthly publication of the Ministry of Food and Agriculture Y. From
this reference, data were selected on prices prevciling during a t'hree-
month period after harvesting a given crop. Estimates of picking, packing,
transportation, octroi and marketing charges were deducted from these prices
to arrive at the estimated farm harvest price. Further studies are needed,
however, to determine the actual differences between the farm price and
the whornlayl rmnrT-t ie, Ths r..-. -;..1- I' true in the case of vegetables.

Cost of Crop Production

Cost of production data that we have analysed so far were too limited
to allow separate calculations for each of the study areas covered in this
report, nor could they bo sub-divided by size of farm. This places a severe
limitcrion on their use in project benefit/cost calculations Data were
available f. various levels of production but the number of cases at each
production ievel was relatively small. Other reports are available but have
not yet been analysed.

Additional evaluation of production costs at various yie!d levels is
still needed, primarily for two reasons: () to establish the validity of
production curves for individual study areas by size of farm; (2) to provide
a basis for isolating certain costs items listed in the World Bank "Methods
and Economic Guidelines". These include cost of family labor, and rent
and/or interest on the value of crop land. Evaluation of available data
should be supplemsntod by farm survey records obtained fron farmers with
different levels of production.

Potential Cropping Patterri;, Intensities and Yields

Estimates of future agricultural conditions can at best only be based
on informed judgement. Wide ranges in available published projections
appear to be closely tied to conflicting assumptions on rate of adoption of
ir.-- :- --- : ;:: .: p :. c: g.' 'I'th and the like. Yield
projections previously published in the White House-mnterior Pane! Report /
and the Harza Appraisal Report Y/ are evaluated. An analysis of the reqc'red
changes in farming practices to attain significant improvements in agricultural
output is also provided. On the basis of this analysis, it is our judgement that
the average yield projections in the White House-interior Panel Report are too
optimistic. Likewise, it would appear that even the relatively modest projec-
tions in the Harza Appraisal Report can be achieved but only if a vigorous
and effective extension program accompanies the proposed development
schemes.





-6-

The validity of agricultural benefits attributed to irrigation water
development and reclamation projects is largely dependent upon the accuracy
of estimating potential crop patterns, intensities and yields, and the degree
to which they would be realized at the farm level. Additional study of these
elements, for each of the major crops, should therefore be given high priority.







PRESENT CROPPING PATTERNS AND INTENSITIES

Cropping Patterns

The present cropping patterns and intensities in the seven canal commands
of the Former Punjab and Bahawalpur and in the Khairpur and Ghotki areas
of the Former Sind, are shown in Table 1. The average for each area is
based on only one and/or two year data because historical data are not
readily available to us at this time.

The cropping patterns for the study areas in the Former Punjab and
Bahawalpur were developed from data given in reference 7; those for the
Former Sind areas were obtained from references 2 and 3. The patterns
shown in Table 1 cannot be used directly for economic evaluation because
the acreages for forage crops, vegetables and orchards are included in a
single "Other Crops" category; likewise, certain acreages are listed as
"Mixed Grains", which in our judgement is primarily wheat. Further
breakdown of the "Cther Crop" and "Mixed Grain" categories will be
needed. Data given in a report by the Bureau of StatisticsY/ will be
useful in this regard. Additional survey data may also be needed.

The crop growing season is defined as the period from sowing to
harvesting. Variations among crops must be carefully established because
the computation of water requirements of individual crops is dependent
upon the length of their respective growing seasons.

The average crop growing periods in the Former Punjab and Former
Sind study areas differ because of climatic variations (See Figure 1).
Generally speaking, crops are planted and harvested earlier in the Former
Sind than in the Former Punjab and Bahawalpur. The graph shows the
respective periods for planting, growing and harvesting for the major
crops. 15/ 22/ 23/ 3/ 7 /

Cropping Intensities

The present cropping intensities in seven canal commands ig.the
Former Punjab and three in the Former Sind are given in Table 1 /.

(i) There are a number of possible definitions of cropping or irrigation
intensity. Cropping intensity, as used in this report, refers to the percentage
of the culturable commanded area that is cropped and/or irrigated in a given
year. The formula is: 100 x cropped acreage --C.C.A. Accordingly,
acreage in sugarcane, fruits or forest is counted in each season (i.e. twice)
because these crops are supplied with irrigation water the year round. Har-
vesting intensity, however, represents the ratio of the C.C.A. to the total
acreage harvested in a given year (100 x acreage harvested C.C.A.)
Thus sugarcane which is harvested once is counted only once while several
crops of vegetables may be grown and are counted each time.






Table 1I


CoC.A./
Season/ Haveli &
Crop Sidhnai

C,C.A.
(000 Acre) 1,011


Average Cropping Patterns and Intensi-
ties in Selected Canal Areas, 1959-61 a/


Panjnad Khairpur
Bahawal and East and
Mailsi Canal Abbassia Thal Ghotki West


648


1,449 1,473 995


689


Percent of C.C.A,
Kharif
Sugarcane 2o0 .3 2.5 3.8 3.6 1.0
Rice 2.0 o4 1.0 1.4 .7 1.4 2.0
Cotton 20.2 17o3 5.0 24,2 2.6 .2 107o
Maize 1,8 .2 1.2 1.1 .2 -
Jowar 11.8 16,0 3.1 6.6 6.2 8.0 9.0
Bajra 1.7 3,5 4.8 2.0 .2 -
Others 13.2 5.2 20.8 8.0 4.3 06 11e3
Sub
Total 52.7 42.9 38.4 47.1 17.8 10.2 3409

Rabi


Sugarcane
Yhea t
Barley


2.0
32,8
0.6


Mixed Gaains 1,0
Oilseeds 3.0


Gram
Others


Sub
Total


1,4
15.1


55.9


0,3
22.5
.2
.4
4.0
2.3
2.4


32.1


2.5
19.4
2.4
4.5
3.4
3.5
6.5


42.2


3.8
22.8

1,0
2.7
2.0
6.6


3.6 -
14.6 5.7
4.5 1.0
1.8 -
2.6 4.3
4.8 1.1
4.6 .4


38,9 36.5 12.5


Cropping_- 109.0 75.0 81.0 86.0 54.0 23o0 79o0
Intensity
Crop
Harvesting 107.0 74.7 78.0 82.0 50.0 23.0 77=0
Intensity


a/ Reference 7

bf Figures have been rounded


1.9
22,0


6.6
2.5
11.2


44,2


-- "w~~' U-~sI-I- -'--





----





AVERAGE GROWTH PERIODS OF MAJOR CROPS

IN SELECTED AREAS OF FORMER

SIND AND PUNJAB


FIG:I


---- ---------H----------H--
SS. CANE

-H- H--


--- ---- ---- ---- -H------H
COTTON




-- --HHH---- -H
RICE
-r H+ ----H



-H-----HH
MAIZE


H.- -- --H--- -H



...., ..H WHEAT




; H IH
| -- -----H-- ----- ---
OIL SEED
-,---- --H



-- -- ---H-- --H -H
LEGUME
PULSES
PULSES


2


.5e
2
-, 4


Und C


d 6:
l0
LE


LEGEN D

- SOWING PERIOD

H- H HARVESTING PERIOD


FORMER PUNAB


FORMER SIND


WEST PAKISTAN
WATER AND POWER DEVELOPMENT AUTHORITY:




GROWTH PERIODS


HARZA ENGINEERING :0. INTERNATIONAL..


I LAHORE IDWG. NO.


I-R ' '


KJ u a





.,--ed.-i. 5i;:~-~ ~. li:~; rZ:36~-fi~-





-10-


Intensities range from a low of 23 percent in Ghotki to a high of 109 percent
in the Haveli and Sidhnai commands. These estimates are based on data
provided in a recent WAPDA report 7/. Comparable data for the Khairpur
and Ghotki canal commands are available only for the year 1960-61 but
additional data will soon emerge from the agricultural studies now underway
by the L.I.P. Consultants.

Recent studies by the Ministry of Food and Agriculture, the Board of
Economic Inquiry, and Harza Engineering Company International show that
some individual irrigators in West Pakistan are presently obtaining cropping
intensities well in excess of 100 percent, Ch. Karam Rasul reports for
example, that a tenant cultivator near Lyallpur has a cropping intensity of
162 percent and eight other farmers have intensities over 120 percent.

A recent report of the Jepartment of A ricultural Economics and
Statistics, Ministry of Food and Agriculture J, provides data on cropping
intensities in selected districts. A summary of these data follows:

A total of 144 cultivators were studied in each of the Districts of
Larkana, Peshawar and Mardan. The 144 cultivators in each district owned
1, 175, 1, 166 and 642 acres, respectively. They had, on the average, a
cropping intensity of 170.7, 170 and 148.5 percent in the three districts,
respectively. (The area under sugarcane is counted in each season).
Intensities between 151 to 200 percent were achieved by 119, 55 and 44
of the cultivators in these three districts, respectively.

The study area in the Mardan District includes 289 acres of barani
land. Of the acreage near Peshawar, 74 acres are under the command of
non-perennial canals and barani cultivation is practised on 148 acres.
The remainder of the areas in the Peshawar and Mardan Districts, and the
entire area of Larkana, have perennial water supplies.

The 144 cultivators studied in each of the Districts of Multan,
Bahawalpur and Mianwali have average cropping intensities of t6, 88 and
9 respectively. (Sugarcane acreage is counted twice). Of the cultivators
of the Multan district, U7, 55 and 2, respectively, have cropping intensities
of 100 or less, between 101-150, and between 151-200 percent V)

In the Bohawalpur District, 116, 27 and one of the cultivators are
in the respective intensity ranges of 100 or less, 101-150 and 151-200
percent. The corresponding numbers of cultivators in each respective
range in the Mianwali District are 123, 19 and 2.

(i) The number of farmers in each range is less than actual because acreages
of sugarcane and fruit are not given for individual cultivators.





-11-


One of the causes of low cropping intensities is that large sections,
particularly in the Multan and Mianwali Districts, are either under non-
perennial canals or barani-cultivation. About one-third of the 3,678
cultivated acres included in the sample of Multan District have non-
perennial water supplies. More than 80 percent of the cultivated area,
of 4,015 acres studied in the Mianwali District, is under barani cultiva-
tion. Most of the 2,740 acres in the sample of the Bahawalpur District,
however, receive perennial water supplies.

Reference 10 on page 26 suggests "that with improvement in supply of
irrigation water the-e is possibility of improving intensity". Moreover, it
states (page 29) that nearly all the farmers studied expressed their willingness
to increase the cropped area if additional irrigation water would be made
available.

A study on the cost of production of field crops is now in progress by
the Board of Economic Enquiry, Punjab University 1/ According to its
one-year (1961-62) data, two of the cultivators in the Sheikhupura District
have cropping intensities of 178 and 187, respectively. In the Gujranwala
District, two of the cultivators have cropping intensities of 179 and 182,
respectively. A cultivator included in the sample of the Campbellpur
District has a cropping intensity of 189. These preliminary results indicate
that future cropping intensities can significantly exceed present average
levels, if adequate water supplies are made available and farm technology
is generally improved.

Substantial areas of farm land in the old districts of the Former Punjab
have become unsuitable for cultivation due to salinity and/or waterlogging.
Harza field surveys show that available water supplies are, therefore, often
used on the remaining arable lands and high intensities are thus being realized.
The Irrigation Agriculture Branch of Harza has recently completed a study
of 19 reclamation plots in SCARP No. 1. In five of these plots, with a
total culturable commanded area (C.C.A.) of 137 acres, 39 acres have been
abandoned due to salinity and waterlogging (Table 2). The actual C.C.A.
is thus reduced to 98 acres. With two season use, a total of 136 cropped
acres were obtained during 1962. The average cropping intensity is thus
139 percent. The haivetif-g intensity is _95 percent of the effective C.C.A.
on one of these plots.

Another recent study conducted by the Irrigation Agriculture Branch
shows that high intensities are being achieved by some farmers in other
areas. Six farms studied in the Districts of Jhang, Lyallpur and Muzaffargarh
include a total of 104.5 acres under total C.C.A. (Table 3). Forty-three
of these acres are now unsuitable for cultivation due to salinity and water-
logging. On the remaining arable area of 61.5 acres (effective C.C.A.),
the farmers raised 95 acres of crops (acreage under sugarcane counted twice)




M M M M M m m m m m m M m M m


Table 2


:Actual C.C.A. and Cropping Intensities of
Selected Reclamation Plots, SCARP No.1, 1962


Plot 'Division
No.


1


U.


'Total


U. A.
Aban- [
'doned I
'(a) '
acres


Actual

(b)


S Cropped Area
Kharif I Sugai Rabi Total
cane (c)
acres


S Intensity


Cropping Harvesting


o of actual C.C.A.


Khankah
Dogran


'14 Beranwala

26 Beranwala

3Q Beranwala

41 Hafizabad


33.0


6 21 12.5


13 3 10


6.5


12 2 10 10.0


7 4.0


2.0 35.0

1.50 11.5

- 8.0

1.25 6.0

- 4.5


Average
Total. 137 39 98 66.0 4,75 65,0 135.75 159 134


Area unsuitable for cultivation due to salinity and waterlogging.
Actual C.C.A. = Total C.C.A. minus area abandoned.
Sugarcane acreage included in acreage under kharif but not under rabi.
3.5 acres were planted twice during the kharif season. The harvesting
intensity then becomes 100 ( 10 + 5.5 + 6.0 ) / 10 = 195.

Source:- Harza note on 19 Reclamation Plots, SCARP No.1, 1964.


70.0

25.5

14.5

17.25

8.5


140

121

145

172

121


136

114

145

195

121


I


"


1




m M M m mM m M m m m M M


Table 3


: Actual C.C.A. and Cropping Intensities of
Selocto-d Farms in Three Districts, 1963-64.


SC. C. A. Cropped Area Intesity
Sche- Aban- Kharif +, Sugar- ,
dule No. District Total doneda/, Actual Rabi cane bA Total 'Cropping Harvesting
I I I I I I I I ,
acres acres 7 of actual C.C.A.

19 Jhang 12.00 5.00 9.00 12.00 0.25 12.25 136 133

23 Jhang 18.00 5.00 13500 19.00 0.50 19.50 150 146

24 Lyallpur 12,00 5.00 7.00 9.00 1.00 10.00 145 129

25 Lyallpur 12.50 5.00 7.50 13.00 1.50 14.50 193 173

43 Muzaffargarh 25.00 12.50 12o50 19.00 0.50 19.50 156 152

45 Muzafifcrgarh 25.00 12.50 12.50 18.75 0.50 19.25 154 150
Average
Total 104.50 43.00 61,50 90o75 4.25 95.00 155 148
Acreage


a/ Area -,nsuitable for cultivation due to salinity and waterlogging.
/ Acreage of sugarcane has been computed on the basis of the overall
percentage of acreage of sugarcane in the respective district during
1958-59 (Jhang, 2.5%-, Lyallpur, 10.6% Muzaffargarh, 335%).


the year


Source:-


Agricultural Survey undertaken
by the Harza Agricultural Branch,
June, 1964.


and


Statistics of Uest Pakistan
Agr. Data, Bureau of Statistics,
West Pakistan Government, "19(0






-14-

during 1963-64. The average cropping intensity of these farms, therefore,
is 155 percent of the effective C.C.A.

Considerable additional data on present cropping intensities are
available in the files of Tipton & Kalmbach, Inc.





-15-


PRESENT AND HISTORICAL YIELDS

Historical yield data were summarized for the major field crops, fruits,
vegetables, and fodder. Adequacy of data varied greatly, both among
regions and by type of crop. The most complete data were available for
field crops, Average yields, and those attained by the progressive farmers,
are given.

Field Crops

Average Yields. Tables 4 through 7 give average per acre yields of
crops during the 13-year period from 1250-51 through 1962-63 for the
irrigated areas of the L/istricts of Multan, Bahawalpur, Sargodha and
Mianwali. These data have been obtained from official publications of the
Director of Land Records and from the files of the Department of Agriculture,
West Pakistan 12/ Y.3 Published yield data for the Khairpur and Ghotki
areas are limited. In this regard, we have relied solely on the data in
references 2 and 3 (Table 8). These can be used for preliminary economic
analysis but considerable additional data for these areas should be collected
and evaluated.

Data shown in Tables 4 through 7 were plotted on graphs by individual
crops and are available in the Harza files. Regression lines are being plotted
and their significance tested. A visual inspection of these figures indicate
that from 1953-54 onward, there is no definite trend in the per acre yield
of most of the crops.

The Multan data, Table 4, can be used as yield estimates for the canal
commands of Haveli, Sidhnai and Mailsi in the Multan District. The Bahawalpur
data, Table 5, can be used for the Bahawal-Panjnad and Abbasia canal com-
mands in the Bahawalpur District. In the case of the Upper That area, the yields
of the Mianwali District, Table 6, can generally be adopted. Where such
data are incomplete, however, similar data pertaining to the Sargodha District,
Table 7, can be used. The Upper Thai area is located in both these districts.
Several thesis studies at the Punjab Agricultural College also contain useful
data but these have not yet been analysed ().



(i) See for example:
(a) Mohammad Ramzan Joya
"Cropping patterns, intensities and crop yields in the Mianwali
Tehsil", M.Sc. thesis, W.P.A.U., 1962.
(b) Shamas-ud-Din Goraya
"An investigation into the net income differentials on similar farms
in the Toba Tek Singh Tehsil", M.Sc. thesis, Punjab University,
1959.




= m m m m = m m m m m m m m m m
Table : Yield Per Irrigated Acre of Crops in
sultan District,1950-51 throu-h 1962-63


Crops

Rice

Jheat

Darley

"owa r

a jra

Ilaize

Gram

Oilseed

Sur

Cotton (Amer.)

Cotton(Desi)

Tobacco

Potatoes


1950- 1951- 1952- 1953- 1954- 1955- 1956- 1957- 1950- 1959- 1960-
51 52 53 54 55 56 57 5C 59 60 61
lid s/Acre


14.e

1.2

11.2

6.3

5.1

9.2

10.5

5.

31.0

5.7

6.2

7.8


8.7

11.8

8.7

7.0

6.1

8.7

6.1

5.4

31.1

5.7

5.1

8.6


9.S

10.5

9.2

6.0

6.1

7.*

6.1

5.0

45.7

7.6

6.3

5.8


- 67.8 90.7 93.1 90.4 90.4 90.4


1961- 1962-
62 63


11.1 9.5 0.7 10.0

1I.0 12.2 11.5 12.2

9.9 9.0 9.0 9.0

5.8 6.1 5.4 6.1

5.5 5.5 4.0 5.4

8.1 0.3 8.7 9.8

S.o 6.9 7.6 7.0

7.1 7.3 6.6 6.5

34.7 36.5 39.0 36.5

7.2 7.2 6.2 7.2

10.0 5.8 5.8 6.1

9.0 7.2 0.5 8.5


- 100.0 84.7


Source : References 12 and. 13.


9.0

12.2

9.0

6.1

4.2

9.2

6.9

6.2

34.6

7.2

5.8

E.5


10.6

11.5

9.5

6.1

5.6

9.7

7.3

6.7

36.5

7.6

6.1

8.5


10.0

11.5

9.0

6.1

5.5

9.7

6.9

6.3

36.5

7.5

6.1

8.5


9.9

12.5

9.9

4.3

6.3

9.8

7.8

6.0

36.0

7.7

5.9

8.3


C.7

12.8

9.5

5.5

6.5

11.0

7.2

6.5

36.0

7.9

6.2

8.3


9.0

14.0

9.0

5.5

7.0

13.0

8.5

6.7

30.0

10.5

7.9

9.7




mm n mm m m r m m0 m m m


DTable 5 : Yield per Tfiric-a te" 1 cr cf Cro;s in
a~'awalpl,,r District 1950-51 t'-rou.?h 1962--63


Crops


1950- 1951- 1952- 1953- 1954- 1955- 1956- 1957- 1958- 1959- 1960- 1961- 1962-
51 52 53 55 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63
-Hd s/Acre-


Rice

ioa
:,Jea t

Barley

Jowa r

Bajra

Maize

3ram -

Oilseed

Gur

Cotton (AIer)-

Cotton (esi)-

Tobacco

Potatoes


12.3 12.4 12.1

7.2 7.2 6.9

6.2 7.4 6.6

6.1 6.1 6.6

7.4 6.1 6.0

6.o 6.1 5.9

5.2 7.2 6.9

5.0 4.9 5.1

34.1 36.2 34.0

6.9 6,0 5.8

6.0 6.0 5.9

11.5 14.5 5.'


11 .8P

11.0

C.S

6.0

6.0

6.1

6.9

4.6

34.0

6.0
6.0

11.3


12.0

12.0

7.9

6.0

6.0

5.8

6.8

4.5

29.8

6.9

4.6

8.4


.- 7.8 87.4 105.3


9.3

10.0

7.5

7.5

5.5

10.0

7.4

6.0

30.1

6.6

5.1

11.7


9.3

10.3

6.0

7.8

5.3

12.6

7.5

6.5

33.0

6.9

5.2

13.6


TH.A. 115.7


Source Referon ars 12 and 13.


9.3

10.5

5.4

8.0

6.0

12.0

8.1

6.8

36.0

7.5

4.0

9.1

81.7


S
-~1
I.




m m m m m m m m m m m m m m= m


Yield per irrigated Acre of Crops in Hianwali
District,1950--51 through 1962-63


1950-
51


Crops


Rice

?heat 1'2.0

Barley 9.7

Jowar 5.4

Bajra 8.5

Ma ize

Gram -

Oilseed 5.4

Gur

Cotton(Amer). -

Cotton(Desi) -

Tobacco

Potatoes


1951-
52




10.8

6.8

5.1

7.0



5.8

4.0


1952-
53


6.4

6.8

5.1

6.1



5.6

3.0


1953-
54


8.0



5.7

6.1



7.0


1954- 1955- 1956-
55 56 57
Mds/Acre -


7.7



5.1

4.9

-

6.6

4.0


19.3

6.5

5.9

5.1

5.1

9.2

6.9

4.0

24.0

5.4

3.2


1957-
5


6.5 7.3

8.9 9.0

5.0 5.1

7.3 5.8

I11.4

6.2 7,3

4.0 4.0

29.5 26.7

3.6 3.4

309 3.1


Source:- References 12 and 13.


Table 6 :


1962-
63


1953-
59


18.6

7.2

10.8

5.1

5.8

10.7

6.9

4.0

30.0

8.2

3.4



58.6


1959-
60


1960-
61




5.9

5.2

3.8

5.8

11.0

4.5

4,0

2500

4.5

4,-3


7.7

11.3

5.1

5.e

11.0

7.3

3.8

30.9

4.7

4.4



40.0


1961-
62


8.4

6.0

4,1

6.0

9.0

6.0

4.4

25.0

4.9

4.0

13.6


8.7

6.5

4.9

6.5

9.0

6,3

5.0

27.2

6.5

6,o


I
b-
Co
I


--




1--- 1 = m = = = m m m = = =m


Ta7le 7-


Yield 'er Irri 'at-d Acre o. Crops in
Sargodha Distric-t 1950-51 throuTh 1962-63


Crops


lice

*"'he at

Iarley

Jorwa r

Eajra

ia i z e

Gram

Oilseed

Gur

Cotton(Amer).

Cotton(Desi)

Tobacco


1950- 1951-
51 52


16.4

13.3

11.5

6.1

7.5

10.1

8.7

5.9

39.5

8.0

8.7

3.5


9.7

10.4

10.4

5.1

7.9

10.2

7.2

6.7

35.1

3.2

6.1

6.8


1952- 1953- 1954- 1955- 1956-
53 54 55 56 57
-Mds/Acre-


9e
9.8

9.8

7.1

5.9

6.3

8.0

4.0

35.1

8.0

7.2

9.0


12.

13.3

10.0

7.7

6.8

9.8

9.3

6.1

33.3

2.0

7.6

.0


12.2

10.5

10.4

4.7

7.5

9.2

7.4

5.8

42.5

7.2

7.2

6.4


11.5

11.1

11.0

4.5

6.4

9.2

7.0

5.8

42.6

7.2

7.2

,.0


11.5

11.1

10.0

4.7

6.4

9.2

7.4

5.7

40.5

6.8

6.0
C.0


1957-
58


11.5

9.4

9.3

4.7

6.5

9.7

7.4

5.2

42.5

7.2

7.2

o.0


195 8-
59


11.5

11.1

10.4

5.0

6.5

9.7

7.0

5.7

30.4

7.2

6.

8.0


1959-


1960- 1961- 1962-


60 61 62 63


10.9

11.1

10.9

4.5

6.5

9.2

7.8

5.9

4o.4

6.1

6.8

o .


10.6

10.4



4.8

7.3

7.9

5.2

6.3

39.5

8.4

6.3

G.4


10.5

11.0,

9.5

4.1

7.1

9.8

6.0

4.7

36.3

7.6

5.9

9.8


12.3

12.4

10.3

6.0

7.9

10.1

7.6

6.8

39.0

9.7

7.7

10.9


Potatoes


- 60.8 60.9 6o.o 6o.8 60o. 6o.8


- 136.1 136.1


Source:- References 12 and 13.


I

i








-20--


Table 0


Project


,stii-ates of Present Yields of Farm
Crops Tairpur and cShotki Areas.


Kha irpur Ghotki

Mds/Acre -


Rice

"The a t

Millits

Gur

Cotton

Fodder(Rabi)

(Kharif Guar)


-

30

6

200

300


Source:- References 2 and 3.




-21-


It cpoears that the official departmentt of Agriculture yield estimates
for field crops are usually lower than the yields actually realized by farmers.
Several surveys verify this opinion. Most of these surveys, however, were
not large enough to demonstrate statistically the extent of under-estimation.
Dr. D.M. Qureshi, General Economist of the Planning & Development
Department, Lahore, conducted one survey bn Wheat in 1957 that was of
the desired detail and magnitude. He found that the wheat yields had been
under-estimated by about 15 percent. Hij study has recently been accepted
by the Central Government and is now being published. He has done similar
work on other field crops as well. He estimates that in these cases actual
farm yields are, on the average, about 10 percent higher than the official
published yield estimates. it is our judgement, however, based on informal
discussions with agricultural specialists, that the published yield figures for
the study areas should be increased by only seven percent for wheat and five
percent for other major crops except rice in order to take into account losses
occurring between the farmer's fields arid the threshing floor. These losses
are estimated, for example, to be seven percent for wheat and ten to fifteen
percent for rice. .uch losses do not occur in the type of field cutting
experiments analysed by Or. G.ureshi.

Per acre yields given in Tables 4 to 7 are primarily official published
data. In order for these crop yields to reflect the effective agricultural output
of the study areas, these official yield estimates should probably be increased
by seven percent for wheat, and five percent for other field crops except rice
where no increase appears warranted. More data in this regard are being
collected and evaluated.

Yields of the Progressive Farmers. Some farmers in West Pakistan
presently have yields that exceed the average yields of many foreign countries.
The achievements of these progressive farmers will be reported in the following
paragraphs. Insufficient data are available, however, to establish more than
an illustration of future possibilities. The limited information on progressive
farmers presented here has been collected from the offices of the Department
of Agriculture, West Pakistan and the weekly bulletin entitled '"iraat Nama".
The data on average world yields were taken from the White-House Interior
Panel Report and are shown in Table 9 5/(Table 1.17).

The Department of Agriculture annually conducts "High Yield
Competitions", particularly for rice and cotton. In these competitions, the
farmers are required to compete on the basis of the average yield from a
block of 10 acres sown to rice or cotton. Official committees are set up
to supervise the sampling and cutting of plots and the recording of yields.
Data are available for the rice and cotton competitions held during 1963.

The rice competition was held in the Gujranwala District with 242
farmers participating. Details are shown in Table 10. The highest average






-22-


Table 9 : Average Crop Yields in
Selected Countries, 1958-9


Europe
E1ypt JaEan Mexico U.S.S.R. Eastern Western U.S,A.
Maunds Per Acre


Rice
(Cleaned)


heatt

Barley

Jowar

Maize


Cotton(Lint)


28.01 33.60

25.40 24.36

25.88 23.82


14.40 -

16.34 10.14 1

8.38 10.94 1


18.71 36.64 26.73

16.34 21.40 17.80

18.23 24.97 17,38-


- 25,09


22.48 23.76


6.38


9.11 20.11

5.47 7.71


19.44 25.64 35.12


2.73


Gur


2- 1 .91

- 235.14V


- 22.54


9.36 11.48


10.20 12.94 19.26


1/ In U.S.S.R. and U.S.A. wheat and barley are
grown primarily under dry farming conditions
with restricted water supply.

2/ States of Arizona, California and New Mexico
where major part of acreage in cotton is irrigated,
yields in Southern states,where there is little
irrigation water,are much lower: 5.6 maunds per acre
in 1958-59.

3/ Figures pertain to Hawaii. In continental U.S.A.
yields are low: 52.7 maunds per acre in 1958-59.


Scurce:-Reference 5, table 1,17


CJr2


Tobacco






-23-


Table 10 Highest Rice Yields in the
Guiranwala District, 1963 a/


Less than

Between

Between

Between

Above

Rejected-


Yield Group
Mlaunds/Acre

40

40-49

50-59

60-C69

70


Total:


No. of Farmers

47

86

64

13

4

28
242


a/ Reforonco 14


Table 11 : Highest Cotton Yields in
The Multan Division, 1963 a/


Region


Fakpattan(Montgomery)

iailsi (Multan)

Vihari (Multan)


Average Yield
Seed Cotton Lint
---Mds/Acre---

35.70 11.90

28.20 9.40

24.80 8.27


;-/ Reference 14





-24-


yield for a 10-acre block of rice is 78 mounds per acre. For one case,
however, a yield of about 80 mounds of paddy is recorded. In terms of
"cleaned rice" this would amount to about 53 mounds per acre which is about
twice the average yield obtained in UoS.A. and Japan during the 1958-59
season,

The 1963 cotton competition was conducted in the Multan Division.
Per-acre average yields of cotton for which prizes were awarded are reported
in the weekly bulletin: "Ziraat Nama", dated May 15, 1964. The yields
are given in Table 11. The cotton (lint) yield obtained by a farmer in the
Montgomery District equals the average yields realized in Arizona, California
and New Mexico. 5 The yield is 2 to 5 times the average yields obtained
in all other countries reported in reference 5.

Additional data on maximum crop yields at the farmers' fields have
been collected from the Director of Agriculture, Lahore Region !4/ (Table
12). Information on the maximum yields obtained at the farmer's fields are
also given in the "Rabi Number" 22b/ of the weekly bulletin "Ziraat Nama"
of September 24, 1963 (Table 13).

A summary of highest crop yields reported at the farmer's fields in
the Former Punjab region is given in Table 14. These data have been taken
from Tables 10 through 13. The maximum yield of wheat given in Table 14
is from 2-6 times the average wheat yields of the countries shown in
reference 5. Maize (Hybrid) yield is about 2.4 times the average U.S.A.
yield and higher than the yield obtained in any other country for which
data were reported. The maximum yield of tobacco is also from 2-6
times the average yields reported. In case of sugarcane gur) data are
only given for Hawaii in the U.S.A. The local maximum yield of 191
maunds of gur is about 80 percent of the average yield obtained in Hawaii.
But as compared to the gur yields of the continental U.S.A., the maximum
yield of farmer's fields is about 3-4 times higher. The maximum yields, as
given in Table 14, are also 4-7 times the present average yields in the same
areas.

Fruit

Adequate reliable data on average yields per acre of fruit in the study
areas are not available. A number of fruit crops are usually grown in com-
bination and most available references discuss fruit in terms of returns per
acre rather than in tonnage per acre of each fruit crop. Saeed Ahmad
(ref. 15a p.5) states, for example:

". .fruit farming gives much more income than
arable farming. It may not be possible for a family
to secure an adequate income by growing most of






-25"-


Table 2 .Iaximum Yields for Selected Crops,
Reported by the Director of Agriculture,
Lahore Region


Crops
Maize (Hybrid)

Whe at


Sugarcane(Gur)

Sugarcane

Potatoes


Potatoes

Cotton


Maximum Yield
Launds/Acre

84

62


191

105

532


400

40


Region

Jaranwala

Kalabagh
(Governor's Farm)
-

Shahkot,(Sk. Pur)

Kalabagh
(Governor's Farm)

Sialkot

Jhang


Table 13: Maximum Crop Yields Reported
in the ';' ly Bulletin,
Ziraat Nama, September, 1962


Highest Yield i:d/Acre

52.5

55

66

52

32

40

100

96

22


Region

D.G. Khan

D.G. Khan

Muzaffargarh

Muzaffargarh

Muzaffargarh



D.G. Khan

D.G. Khan

D.G. Khan


Crop

Tobacco

Cotton

heat

heat

Toria

Lice

Gur

Gur

Gram


- -







-26-


Table 14 : Highest Crop Yields
in the Former Pujab a/


2Eop

Whe at

Cotton (Seed Cotton)

(Lint)

Maize (Hybrid)

Sugarcane (Gur)

Potatoes

1ice (Paddy)

(Cleaned)

Toria (Oilseed)

Tobacco (Dry)


Highest Yield
Maunds/Acre

66

40

153

84

191

532

80

53

32

52


Source:- Tables 10 through 13.






-27-


the farm crops from an average holding but fruit
growing from an equal area may yield double the
income or even more, if the enterprise is taken
up on improved lines".

Some data on fruit production are available for portions of the Indus
Plains. Estimates of gross value per acre, ignoring waste, are calculated
from these data. () According to reference 15a, the area of mature
orchards in the Former 7unjab and Bahawalpur areas in 1?55 was estimated
to be 91,900 acres and production was estimated to be 74,00,000 maunds.
This gives an average yield of 80 mounds of fruit per acre. With an
average wholesale price of Rs. 19 per mound, the gross crop value is
Rs. 1,520 per acre.

Fruit acreage and production data for the Lahore Division were
obtained for the 1955-1962 period from the Deputy Director Agriculture,1-
Lahore (Table 15). Gn the basis of this information, the average yield of
fruit is about 143 mounds per acre. At a wholesale price of Rs. 19 per
mound, a gross crop value of Rs.2,700 per acre is realized in the Lahore
District. (ii)

The Deputy Director, Agriculture, Multan Division,i./ on the basis
of data available to him, estimates that a properly maintained, mature
orchard normally yields average gross income of Rs. 1500-2500 per acre
annually (ii) as compared to Rs.250, 300 and 1,000 from wheat, cotton
and sugarcane, respectively.

Mangoes, citrus and dates are the most important fruit crops presently
grown in the areas under study. Estimates of gross crop values for each of
these crops are given below:

Mangoes. There is evidence that high gross returns are possible under
present farming conditions. It must be recognized, however, that only a
portion of present production reaches the market. According to an extension

(i) It is our judgement that up to ten percent of total production is lost
in the harvesting and farm handling process but no data can be cited
in support of this opinion. Income from the crops interplanted in the
orchards has not been included in the estimates of gross crop value of
fruits cited above. To some extent the loss from wastage of fruits is
offset by the income of interplanted crops. If both these estimates
are established, the gross crop value should be adjusted accordingly.

(ii) Gross value calculations ignored waste or losses and the value of
interplanted crops.








-20-
Table 15: Acrea:e and Production of Fruits
in the Lahore Division for the
Years 1955 throu-T 1962.


Area in Acres


9,467

10,333

11,356

12,372

12,791

13,432

14,181


Total
Production
in Maunds


1,312,332

1,501,900

1,648,605

1,81',631

1,859,374

1,911,906

1,943,131


Total: 83,932 11,995,879


Average: 11,990 1,713,697

Average Production
per Acre 143



Source:- Reference 14.


Year


1955-56

1956-57

1957-50

1958-59

1959-60

1960-61

1961-62







-29-


report of th De.partment of Agriculture, West Pakistan, 17/ there were
58,958 acres of mangoes under cultivation in West Pakistan in 1955 with
a total production of 5,469,063 mounds. i) This indicates an average
yield of 93 mounds per acre. At an actual farm price of Rs.30 per mound,
the gross per acre crop value would be about Rs.2,790. Unfortunately,
more uptodate data are not available for total acreages and yields in West
Pakistan. Greater reliance has therefore been placed on the results of a
recent study in the Multan Division which lies within our study area. These
results are summarized below.

The Deputy Director of Agriculture, Multan Division, has conducted
a survey of fruit production in the Multan District during June and July of
1962 16/ (Table 16). Mangoes received major attention in this survey; for
other fruits, only acreages were recorded. Each garden with mangoes was
visited in the district, the mango trees were counted, and yield estimates
were provided by the farmers.

Table 16 shows that the average yield is 48.3 mounds per acre and
the average farm price is Rs.30 per maund. This gives a gross crop value
of Rs. 1,450 per acre. The report notes that due to bad weather the
"bearing during the year under review, however, was less than half way".A-
It is not clear from this statement whether the yield was only 50 percent of
average yield or whether it was only half of what the trees would produce
in an unusually good year. It is suspected that the latter is the case. We
suggest, therefore, that an average gross crop value of Rs. 1,450 per acre
of mangoes be adopted for the Multan District in order to insure that returns
are not over-estimated. The same figure could be used for the Bahawalpur and
Upper Thai areas as their production capabilities are generally similar to
those of the Multan Division.

Citrus. Total citrus acreage in West Pakitaan is estimated at 50,000
acres an tWe production at 4,808,580 maunds...!/ About 80 percent of
this acreage lies in the Districts of zargodha, Lahore, Multan, Bahawalpur
and Rawalpindi. The average yield of these fruits in these areas has been
estimated at 100 mounds per acre. Citrus would thus give a gross value of
s. 1,600 per acre at an actual market price of Rs. 16 per maund.

Dates. According to the data given in reference 19, the average
yield of dates is about 2 mounds per plant and 109 date-palm trees can be
planted per acre. At an average market price of Rs.20 per mound, an acre
of dates would give a gross crop value of Rs.4,360. 12/ It is our judgement,
however, that under average farming conditions the average yield per plant
is about one maund. Thus, the gross crop value at the 1961-63 market
price would be Rs.2,945.

(i) Relative to average long-term yield levels, 1955 was a bumber crop year.





-30-

Tablo 16 Acreage arn Production of 'aneroes
in ?ulttn District, 196 a]


Tota
Item-s 'rafted eeln A Avera,-e


Area (Acres)

All Fruits -- 35291

Mangoe s 6,745 13,307 20,052

Percent 33.6 66.4 100

Plants/Acre 18.32 27.82 24.63

Yield/Acre (aund.s) 18.52 64.87 40.23

Yield/Tree(M0aunds) 1.01 2.33 2.00


a/ Reference 16.







-31-


Estimated Gross Value of Orchard Production. It is also possible to
work out a weighted average of gross crop value at the farm price of the
major fruits crops grown together in orchards. It is estimated that mangoes,
citrus and dates occupy about 57, 40 and 3 percent of the fruit acreage,
respectively, in the Multan, Bahawalpur and Upper Thai areas. The aver-
age weighted gross crop value of fruit at the farm price in these regions thus
comes to about Rs. 1,260 per acre. Details are given in Table 17. Allowing
for the initial period of non-bearing in these fruits and alternate bearing,
especially for mangoes, the gross crop value shown in Table 17 may come
down to Rs.800 to Rs. 1,000 per acre over the life of the orchard.

Reference 20 established, on the basis of extensive enquiries in the
Former Punjab region, that citrus fruit is auctioned at a price range of
Rs.800 to Rs. 1,200 per acre. Similarly the auction price of mango is Rs.850
and Rs.2, 250 per acre of seedling and grafted varieties, respectively. (i)
This also indicates that a sum of Rs.800 to Rs. 1,000 may be assumed in the
economic analysis as the present gross crop value for an acre of irrigated
orchards.

Vegetables

Adequate data on yields and acreages of vegetables are not available.
The Vegetables Botanist of Lyallpur 15_ states ". . their cultivation as
cash crops is practised with very large monetary returns. It has been esti-
mated that vegetables like potatoes, turmeric and chillies are more paying
to the growers than common crops and even sugarcane which is regarded as
a very good cash crop".

Some estimates of vegetable acreage and production figures for West
Pakistan are given in reference 21. The authors of this publication empha-
size that their yield estimates are based on general opinions instead of on
an accurate survey. The area and production figures for the Multan District
given in reference 21 are summarized in Table 1E. Market prices for vege-
table crop amounts to Rs.814 per acre. Assuming the average farm price to
be 20 percent less than the market price and disregarding wgstage, the gross
crop value per vegetable crop per acre amounts to Rs.650. Vl)

Yields for various vegetables grown in West Pakistan are also given in
reference 22 and sown in Table 19. Cn the basis of these yields, the gross

(i) Grafted varieties make up about one-third of the total acreage in
production (See Table 16).
(ii) A thesis completed in 1964 by Mr. Mukhtar Ali Anwar at the Agricultural
University, Lyallpur entitled "Economics of Vegetable Farming at Different
Distances From the Lyallpur Town" gives figures based on farm survey data
but a copy of this reference was not available at this time.





-32-


Table 17: Average Gross Crop Value of Fruits in Three
Irrigated Areas of the Punjab a/


Market Value
Rs/Acre

2,420

1,600

2,945


Farm Value
Rs/Acre

1,453

960

1,765

1,260


Percent of
Total Fruit
Acreage


57

40

3


/ References 16, 16 and 19
b/ At 1961-63 Market Frices.


Table 1C: Area and Production of Vegetables in the Multan
District for 1956-57 and 1957-58 8/


Vegetables

Potatoes

Cnion

Garlic

Chillies


Area in
Acres

1,022

1,474

427 /

3,520


Froduc-
tion in
Mounds

92,548

214,250

12,984

42,246


Av. Yield
Per Acre
in Mounds

90

145

30

12


Price
Rupees/
Maund

11.50

6.50

19

59


Average:


Gross Crop
Value
Rs/Acre

1,035

942

570

708

3,255

Rs.814


/ Reference 21.
SArea and Yield of Potatoes Average for Two Years: 1955-56 and 1956-57.
/ Area and Yield of Garlic for the Year of 1955-56.


Fruits


Mango

Citrus

Dates

Average:


-- -







-33-


T'ble 19. : averagee Yields of Vegetables a
in Unspecified Areas of est PakistanI 2a/
in Unspecified Areas of West Pakistant r62


Season


Ra bi


Turnip
R'ad is.
Cauliflower
Onion
Tomatoes
Peas (Desi)
Peas (English)
Salad
Potatoes (Aut:'n
Potatoes (Sprin )


-ater Melon
Brinjal
Tinda (Gourd)
Red Chillies
Lady Fin:er
e Ielon
hitter Gourd
/Arvi
3in er

Tar
Sweet Guard.
Pu:mpkin
Turer:eric


Yield
ids/ cre



250-300
270
210
120-140
200
30-40
80-100
100
1C0-250
o0-150


200
200
130
80 Jet 20 Dry
125-150
160
165
150-200
80-100 Vet
30-35 Dry
200
250
200-250
100 Jlet 30 Dry


aj Reference 22.


Khharif


Ve ,e tab le





-34-


crop value of vegetables would be much higher than would follow from the
previous table. Average yield estimates of vegetables in the Former Punjab
are given in reference 23 and are shown in Table 20. Average gross crop
value of vegetables comes to Rs. 1,440 per acre at the wholesale market
price. At the farm price, the gross crop value amounts to Rs. 1,150 per
acre, neglecting waste. We feel that these returns are much higher than
average. Estimates of present yields of fruits and vegetables for the Khairpur
and Ghotki areas, as given in references 2 and 3 ore shown in Table 21.

We recommend that in the absence of adequate published data now
available to us, an assumed gross crop value of Rs.600 per acre and per
vegetable crop be used for the present situation. Our estimate is limited
to the non-pcr?.-';:; sget-obles thiat arc commonly grown under average
farming conditions for consumption in rural areas. These are primarily
potatoes, onions, garlic and chillies. This gross crop value estimate is
conservative, however, when applied to commercial production of perish-
able vegetables.

Green Fodder

Few data are being published on acreage and yields of fodder crops.
Considerable unpublished data are available, however, from theses and files
of the West Pakistan Agricultural University and the Former Punjab Agricultural
College and Research Institute at Lyallpur. These data have not yet been
evaluated. (i) in estimating averageie Ids pf green fodder, we have referred
to limited data in two publications M5C/ 22/ and in a chart 2/ of the
Department of Agriculture, West Pakistan, Lahore.

Table 22 shows the overage yields of various fodder crops, including
yields for improved varieties. We have considered only the more commonly
grown fodder crops. These are jowar, bajra and maize during kharif, and
berseem and lucerne during the rabi season (Table 23).

It is our judgement that the yields (in green weight) shown in Table 23
are higher than normally realized on farms in general. This table shows the
average yield of kharif fodder at 390 mounds per acre. We recommend,
however, that an average yield of 250 mounds be used for green kharif
fodder grown in the study areas covered in this report. Table 23 also shows
the average yield of rabi fodders at 750 mounds per acre. We recommend

(i) See in particular the following two theses:
(a) Abdul Hamid Mann, "Determining The most suitable cropping pattern
in the canal irrigated areas of the Multan Tehsil", M.Sc. thesis,
WPAU, Lyallpur, 1962.
(b) Shamas-ud-Din, "An investigation into the net income differentials
on similar farms in the Toba Tek Singh Tehsil, M.Sc. thesis, Punjab
University, 1959.






-35-


Table 20


Average Yields of Vegetables
in the Former Punjab a/


Vegetables

Potatoes

Onions

Garlic

Chillies


Average:


Average Yield
Maunds/Acre


120

200

100


Price
fh/Md. -


11.50

6.50

19

59


Gross Value
Rupees/Acre


1,580

1,500

1,900

1,180


1,440


n/ Reference 23
b/ Market Price Pertaining to the
Period 1961 through 1965.


Table 21




Product


Vegetables

Fruits


: Per Acre Yields of Fruits and
Vegetables in Khairpur and
Ghotki Areas a/


rpur Ghotki
---Mds/Acre---


50 b/

35 C


a/ References 2 and 3
b/ Mostly Onions.
c/ Mostly Dates.







-36-


Table 22 : Yields of Green Fo-lder in
the Forr-er Punjab a/


Season/
JFo od ers

Kr- arif

Jowar


(Irri ated )

( Barani )


Bajra

Cross Chari Sudan Grass

Sudan Grass

loepha nat rrass

B.N. Hybrid

Ma i z e

M.a kchar i

aI.aize '.akc -ari Cross

-oth
1,1o t h

Rabi

3erseen

Lucerne

Oats

Ra ya.

Cow Peas

-ruara


Green Fodder
(C2ds/A cre)


No. of
Cuttin s


400

200

300-350

700
?oo
600

1200

5000

450

400

650

300


800

700

60oo

40 0

350

400


Roforences15c, 22 and 24.


5

6-8

1

1

1

1


_ __






-37-


Table 2 3: Yields of Usual Fodder Crops
grown in t .e Former Punjab a/


I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I


.vera-e Yields
(?aunds/Acre)

4oo
325
450

390

300
700

750


a/ References 15c, 22 and 24,


Cro-ns

Jowa r
Ba jra
Maize
Avera ge
(Kharif Fodders)

Berseem
Lucerne
Avera "e
(Rabi Fodders)








-38-


that an average yield of 350 mounds per acre be used for present conditions.
Our reasoning for reducing the yield estimates is as follows:

The green fodder yields given in the publications listed above are not
based on farm surveys and appear to be much higher than average farm yields.
These references reported fodder yields produced at the research farms and at
the Model Farms of the Department of Agriculture, West Pakistan. These
farms have better facilities than the average farmers. Moreover, the hot
climate of the Multan and Bahawolpur Districts and the present shortage of
irrigation water, combine to shorten the growth period of rabi fodders. It
is assumed, therefore, that the average yields obtained by the farmers are
much below the yields reported by these publications.

No published price data are available for fodder crops. We estimate,
on the basis of judgements based on field survey experience, that the usual
price for which an acre of kharif and rabi fodder is sold in the rural areas is
Rs.250 and Rs.350, respectively. We thus estimate that fodder is sold for an
average price of about one rupee per mound. Due to lack of published data
on fodder crops, effort should be made to evaluate the information available
from the Former Punjab Agriculture College and Research Institute and the
West Pakistan Agricultural University at Lyallpur.









HARVEST PRICES


Field Crops

The harvest prices of major field crops for the 13-year period ending
June, 1963 are summarized in Tables 24 through 26 for three irrigated areas
in the Punjab. Similar data for the less important field crops are included
in the Appendix. The farm prices for the Khairpur and Ghotki areas for
recent years (actual years unspecified) are given in Table 29.

Data for the Multan, Bahawalpur, Mianwali and Sargodha markets
were obtained from the office of the Director of Land Records, Northern
Zone, West Pakistan, Lahore. Such data are published in a yearly report.!
The latest available publication in this series is for the fiscal year ending
30th June, 1960. The price data for the 1960-1963 period were obtained
from the office files of the Director of Land Records, Lahore. These data
will be published in the near future. Price data for certain commodities
and/or years, especially 1962-63, have not yet been received and/or
approved by the Director of Land Records for some of the four markets and
were therefore not available at the time this report was prepared.

Limited data for the Khairpur and Ghotki areas were obtained from
references 2 and 3. The Khairpur and Ghotki prices should be determined
for the same period (1950-51 to 1963-63) as the Former Punjab data in order
to allow comparison of the study areas at comparable price levels. We have
not yet had time to collect such price data for the Khairpur and Ghotki areas.

The harvest prices for field crops in the four markets during the 13-year
period (1950-1963) have been plotted on graphs (available in the Harza files).
Cnly slight variation occurs in the prices received by the farmers over time
in the four markets. A regression line was fitted to the Multan market prices
by Tipton & Kalmbach, Inc., and for the other three markets by the Irrigation
Agriculture Branch.

The trend line is significant for American cotton at the five percent
level (Figure 2). It is significant at the 1 percent level in case of desi
cotton, rice, wheat, barley, jowar and bajra. We propose to use the trend
figures for all crops where significance has been established. Since the
trend is not significant for maize, gram, gur and rape seed, we propose to
use simple average prices of the period of analysis for these crops.

Fruits and Vegetables

Estimated farm prices for fruits and vegetables for the study areas are
given in Table 30. Harvest prices for the major fruits and vegetables for
the 3-year period ending December 1963 have been obtained from a monthly









Table 24 t Harvest Price of Rice in Selected
Districts, 1950-1963. a/


Ba hawa plur Mianwa li

-/iid


1950-51

1951-52

1952-53

1953-54

1954-55

1955-56

1956-57

1957-58

1958-59

1959-60

1960-61

1961-62

1962-63


12.5

14.o

13.3

13.7

9.0

13.0

11.5

13.5

13.5

14 .0

19.0

18.0


Year


a/ Reference 13.


Mu It an


12.0

12.0

12.5

20.0

22.0

23.0


Sar odha





10.0

14.0

10.0

9.0

0.5

9.5

13.5

18.0

11.0

12.6

17.8


)
)Unhu sk-
)ed -
)
)

)

) iusk--
) ed
)


-










Table 25 : Harvest Price of :Theat in Selected
Districts 1950-1963. a/


ilMultan


6.8

11.5

12.5

10.0

8.5

9.3

908

12.5

13o0

14.2

13.3

12.0


Ba ha wa lpur iia nwa li


,o


1950-51

1951-52

1952-53

1953-54

1954-55

1955-56

1956-57

1957-58

1958-59

1959-60

1960-61

1961-62

1962,63


10.0

13.3

8.2

9.6

10.7

12.1

12.5

11.6


16.0

13.9


Year


a/Reference 13.


Sa r odha


7.0

9.3

12o0

8.0

8.5

10.0

11.3

12.5

12.5

14.6

14.0

13.3


8.0

10.0

10.7

12.5

13.1

13.1

14.0

13.5

13.5









Table 26 : Harvest Price of Raw Surar in
Districts, 1950 1965. a/



Year Multan Bahawalpur Mianwali Sargodha
----Rs/Mcd----

1950-51 -
1951-52 19.5 24.0
1952-55 16.0 16.0
1953-54 16.0 -13.0
1954-55 12.0 14.0

1955-56 10.0 20.0
1956-57 17.0 22,0

1957-58 10.5 12.0 16.0
1958-59 12.0 13.0 16.0 18.0
1959-60 20.0 30.0 17.5 18.0
1960-61 23.0 22.0 22.0
1961-62 27.0 17.0 -19.5
1962-63 16.0


0/ Reference 13.







Table 27 Harvest Price of Seed Cotton(American)
in Selected Districts, 1950 1963 a/


Year Multan Bahawalpur Mianwali Sargodha
----Rs/Md----

1950-51 32.0 34.0
1951-52 37.0 38.0
1952-53 27.0 18.0
1953-54 20.0 26.3
1954-55 23.0 24.0 28.3
1955-56 28.0 23.5 33.0
1956-57 28.0 26.5 34.0
1957-58 30.0 25.0 31.0
1958-59 35.0 30.0 34.6
1959-60 34,0 36.0 33.6
1960-61 32.0 33.5 33.5
1961-62 33.0 27.0 33.8
1962-63 27.0 2.0 -


a/ Reference 13.









Table 28: Harvest Price of Seed Cotton (Desi)
in Selected Districts, 1950 1963 a/


Multan


30.0

30,0

22.5

18,0

20.0

25.0

28.0

31.5

29.0

28.0

32.0

30.0


Bahawalpur
----Rs/Md----


Mianwali Sargodha


S- 28.0
20.0

-- 14.0

24.0

23.0 27.0

21.0 27.0

25.0 30,0

33.0 30,0

25.0 32,0

34.0 28,2

33.0 28.8

26.0 30.4

27.0 -


Reference 13.


Year


1950-51

1951-52

1952-53

1953-54
1954-55

1955-56

1956-57

1957-58

1958-59

1959-60

1960-61

1961-62

1962-63






-45-

Table 29 Farm Prices of Agricultural Products
in Selected Areas of Former Sind a/




Products Khairpur Ghotki

----Rs/Md----

Rice 9 12

Wheat 13 12

Barley -

Jowar (
( 10 10
Bajra (

Maize -

Gram -

Oilseeds 23 23

Raw Sugar(Gur) 18

Cotton (American) 25 25

Cotton(Desi) -

Tobacco


a/ References 2 and 3.






Figure No.2
HARVEST PRICES OF COTTON(AMERICAN)
AT THE MULTAN MARKET


Multan
Regression
line


Multan Price line


30


S29

A 28
P4
27

26 -

c 25

S24
P-


0
5 I
Lr Lo..
OC- 0"


o t o- 0 cl- Co O> 0 7- NC tC\ 0

CM l^ 4- LA 0 CI- CC ) Y 0 'c CON 0
LU L U LAU L LN LU LU\ LU V \ 00
o Co ( 0 (1 (G o0 ON ON ON (m ON (<
~ T^ v- 7,- 17




-4'7"


Table 30 :


Average Farm Prices of Fruits and Vege-
tables in Selected Districts, 1961 through
1963 a/


Product


Multan Bahawalpur


Upper Thai Khairpur Ghotki


Fruits


Mangoes

Citrus

Dates

Vegetables

Potatoes

Onions

Chillies
(Dry)

Garlic


50

9.50


(0
(10
(-


5.50


a/ References 2, 3 and 4.


- --------- --









-48-


publication of the Ministry of Food and Agriculture.y (The harvest price
is the market price which prevails during period when the fruits and vege-
tables are harvested).

Price data are not available in reference 4 for all fruits for every
market. Mangoes price data, for example, are available only for the
Multan market and not for the Sargodha, Mianwali and Bahawalpur markets.
Citrus prices on the other hand, are available only for the Sargodha and
Multan markets. In the absence of complete data, price data available at
any of the four markets were adopted for the other markets.

A survey by the Deputy Director of Agriculture on the marketing of
mangoes in the Multan District 25/ shows that farm price of mangoes is about
60 percent of the wholesale market price. The remaining 40 percent covers
picking, packing, transportation, octroi and marketing costs. It is realized
that these charges are greater for mangoes than for dates or citrus. However,
in the absence of such estimates for these fruits in the Multan market, and for
all fruits in the other three markets, the price reduction of 40 percent for
mangoes in the Multan District was assumed to apply to all fruits in the four
markets.

Picking, packing, transportation, octroi and marketing charges are
generally much less for vegetables than for fruit crops. Since no reliable
estimates of these costs are available, however, we reduced the wholesale
vegetable prices by 20 percent to obtain an estimate of the farm prices.
An effort should now be made to improve these estimates.

Green Fodder

There are no data presently available to us on harvest prices for green
fodder. As indicated in a previous section of this report, we estimate the
average price to be one rupee per maund. Applicable data may be con-
tained in the thesis reports referred to earlier. This possibility should be
investigated.






-49-


COST OF PRODUCTION FOR SELECTED YIELD LEVELS

Data on the cost of production for major crops grown in the Former
Punjab and Bahawalpur have been collected from published and unpublished
reports of the West Pakistan Department of Agriculture, the Central Ministry
of Food and Agriculture, Government of Pakistan, and research reports of the
Punjab University (References 25 through 34). ()

Data from field surveys conducted by the Irrigation Agriculture Branch
of Harza were also utilized. These surveys were mainly conducted to deter-
mine the cost of family labor and various agricultural operations. In addition,
agricultural experts engaged in teaching, research and extension were con-
suited. Available data have been corrected for price differentials. Rates
prevailing in 1963 have been uniformly applied.

Cost of production for selected yield levels of the major field crops,
vegetables and fodder are shown in Tables 31 through 37. The eight major
cost items included are listed below:

Major Cost Items Sub-elements

1) Land and Water Land (a) Rent of Land
(b) Land Revenue
(c) Cther Taxes
Water (a) Water Rates per acre
(b) Bund Making and Cleaning of
Water Course Charges
(c) Irrigation Labour Charges

Sub-total:
2) Tilling (a) Ploughings/Puddling
(b) Planking
(c) Harrowing
(d) Levelling

Sub-total:
(i) Data from a number of theses prepared at West Pakistan Agricultural University
at Lyallpur are available and should be carefully evaluated. In particular,
refer to the following:
(a) Abdul Hamid, Cost of production of crops, M.Sc. thesis, WPAU,
Lyallpur, 1960.
(b) Mohd Salim, Cost of production of crops, M.Sc. thesis, WPAU,
Lyallpur, 1962.
(c) Abdul Hamid Mann, Cost of production of crops in the Multan District,
M.Sc. thesis, WPAU, Lyallpur, 1962.
(d) Mohammad Akhtar, Cost of production of crops in the Lyallpur District,
WPAU, Lyallpur, 1964.





-50-


Major Cost Items

3) Sowing


4) Manures and Fertilizer


5) Intercultures 1/


6) Harvesting


7) Threshing


8) Winnowing


Sub-elements

(a) Value of Seed
(b) Preparation of Sets/Raising
of Nursery
(c) Ploughing for Sowing
(d) Seeding/Planting

Sub-total:

(a) Value of Farm Manure
(b) Transportation and Spreading
(c) Value of Commercial Fertilizer
(d) Transportation and Spreading

Sub-total:

(a) Hoeings
(b) Pioughings
(c) Weeding

Sub-total:

(a) Harvesting
(b) Picking
(c) Plucking of Cobs

Sub-total:

(a) Bullocks Labour
(b) Manual Labour

Sub-total:

(a) Manual Labour


Sub-total:

GRAND TOTAL:

The World Bank "Methods and Economic Guidelines" specify that
the cost of family labor shall be excluded from the total cost of production
when calculating net project benefits. Published data now available to us,
however, do not separate the cost of family labor from the total cost of

1/ No costs for plant protection presently borne by farmers (i.e. government
subsidy).







-51-
Table 31 : Cost of Production of Rice (Paddy)
Per Acre with 15 Maunds Yield per Acre
Total Costs Cash Costs
Items of Costs in Rupees in Rupees 2/
Land
Rent of land 80.00 80.00
Land revenue & other taxes 5.00 5.00
Water
Water rates 10, 00 10.00
Bund making & cleaning
of water courses 5.00 5.00
Irrigation labo0charges. 6.20 6.20
Tilling
Ploughings/puddling2/ 36.00 21.00
Plankings 2/ 7.50 5.00
Sowing
Value of seed @ .2 Md. '
of Rs.25/Md. 5.00 5.00
Cost of raising nursery 5.00 5.00
Uprooting & transplanting
(5 men per acre) 12.50 6.25
Manures & fertilizers
Fertilizer one bag per acre 8.00 8.00
Intercultures
Weeding & hoeing
2(-men for each) 20.00 10.00
HTarvestin
Harvesting & binding(8 men) 20.00 10.00
Threshing
Threshing 8 men per acre
@ of I.2.50 per man 20,00 10.00
Winnowing
Winnowing 3 men per acre 7.50 7.50
@ of Rs.2.50
Total Costs 248.00 188.00
Costs excluding rent of land. 168.00 108.00
_/ Cash costs are computed by deducting the farm family labour
costs from the total costs.
2/ Cost data includes depreciation costs and interest for
machinery and bullocks.Based on limited data available
this amounts to 12 percent of total costs.







-52-
Table 32 : Cost of Production of Wheat Per Acre
at Different Levels of Production


10 Mds/.cre j 15 Mds/Acre


1 Mds/Acre 25 s/Are
20 Mds/~crel 25 Lids/Acre


Total aCash Iotal Cash Total Ch UTotal Cash
Items of Costs Cost ;Cost. n Cost Cost A Cost GCost .CCost Costl/
in Rs. 'in R- in R3. 'in R. in Rs. 'in Rs. in Rs, in Rs.


Land
Rend of Land
Land Revenue
& Other Taxes
Water
,Iater Rates


70.00 70.00 80.00 80.00 90.00 90.00 110.00 110.00

6.40 6.40 6.40 6.40 6.40 6.40 6.40 6.40


6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00


Irrigation Labour
Charges 3.50 0.00 3.75 0.00 4.00 0.00 4.00 0.00


3und Making &
Cleaning of
Water Course
Tilling
Ploughings &2/
Plankings
Sowving
Value of Seed
Ploughing &
planking
Manures and
fertilizer
Intorcultures
Hoping and
weeding
Harvesting
Threshing
.innowing


2.50 0.00 2.50 0.00 2.50 0.00 2.50 0.00


31.85


19.80 43.20 28.66 44.93 27.79 55.35 35.36


12.50 12.50 12.66 12.66 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00

7.25 4.00 7.25 4.00 7.25 4.00 7.25 4.00

10.00 7.55 15.62 13.62 24.04 19.74 50.37 45.02


7.50 1.07 10.00


2.50 10.00


1.00 23.75 3.31


10.50 4.20 18.82 12.80 18.80 10.13 22.00 12.32
14.87 6.58 17.42 8.78 15.37 9.92 18.00 9.10
6.31 5.80 10.25 10.25 12.37 12.37 17.50 17.50


Total cost. 189 144 234 186 257 202 338 264
Cost excluding 119 74 153 106 167 112 278 154
rent of land
/ Cash costs are computed by deducting the farm family labour costs
from the total costs.
/ Jst data includes depreciation costs and interest for machinery
and bullocks.Based on limited data available; this amounts to
approximately 15 percent of the total costs.


__


__ __









-53-
Table 33 : Cost of Production of Maize Per Acre
at Different Levels of Production


S15 M Ads/Acre I2Md/cre 5 Mds/Acre
Items of Costs ,Total ,Cash Total Cash Total Cash
Cost Cost CCos Cost1/ Cost Cost
in Rs. in R.- in P. in Rs. in Rs. in Rs.
1I I
,Lnd
Rent of land 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00
.and revenue and
other taxes 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00
W water
Water rt9te9 6.40 6.40 6.40 6,40 6.40 6.40
Irrigation labor.
charges. 5.00 1.16 5.50 1.65 6.00 1.80
Bund making and
cleaning of water
courses. 2.50 0.58 2.50 0.58 2.50 0.58
Tilling
Ploughing and
planking 2/ 35.00 27.64 49.85 35.19 50.00 36.00
Sowing
Value of seed 5.46 5.46 5.46 5.46 6.00 6.00
sloughing and
planking 2/ 7.25 4.00 7.25 4.00 7.25 4.00
Manures and
fertilizer 30.00 26.15 46.00 42.50 57.00 53.50
Intercultures 45.00 10.35 45.00 15.75 45.00 15.75
Harvestin 10.00 4.80 12.50 5.00 15.00 6.00
Threshing and
Winnowing 25.00 12.00 33.00 14.50 40.00 17.60

Total costs. 241,00 167.00 282.00 200.00 324.00 237.00
Costs excluding 181.00 107.00 222.00 140.00 264.00 477.00
rent of land.
./ Cash costs are computed by deducting farm family labour
from the total costs.
2/ Cost data includes depreciation costs and interest
for machinery and bullocks. But no dataare available
to determine the percentage on the total costs.





-54-


Table 34: Cost of Production of Sugarcane per Acre at
Different Levels of Production


Stripped
400 Mds/Acre
Total Cash


Items of Costs
Land
Rent of land
Land revenue &
other taxes
Water
Water rates
Irrigation labor
charges
Bund making &
cleaning of
water courses
Tilling
Ploughings and
plankings 2/
Sowing
Value of sets
Manual labor for
prep. of sets
Sowing with
plough 2/
Manual labor for
planting of sets
Manures and
fertilizer
Farm manures
Ferti izers
Spreading of
manures
Intercultures
Hoeings
Crushing charges
Bullocks labor
. ... I l_L __


Cost
in Rs.


Cost /
in Rs.


Cane
600 Mds/Acre
Total Cash


Cost
in Rs.


Cost
in Rs.


120.00 120.00 140,00 140.00


Gur


45 Mds/Acre
Total Cash


Cost
in Rs.


Cost /
in Rs.


60 Mds/Acre
Total Cash
Cost Cost /
in Rs. in Rs.


120.00 120.00 140.00 140.00


11.50 11.50 11.50 11.50 11.50 11.50 11.50 11.50


22.22 22.01 2?.00 22 00

16.00 0.00 16.00 0.00


22.00 22.00 22.00 22.00


16.00


0.00 16.00 0.00


5,00 2.50 5.00 2.50 5.00 2.50 5.00 2.50



60.25 35.25 65.50 38.75 60.25 35.25 65.50 38.75


96.00 96.00 100,00 100.00


96.00 96.00 100.00 100.00


20.00 10.00 20.00 10.00 20.00 10.00 20.00 10.00

6.00 3.50 6.00 3.50 6.00 3.50 6.00 3.50

7.50 3.75 7.50 3.75 7.50 3.75 7.50 3.75


75.00
12.00


75.00
12.00


75.00 75.00
18.00 18.00


5.00 2.50 7.00 3.50 5.00 2.50 7.00 3.50

60.00 30,00 60,00 30,00 60,00 30.00 60.00 30.00


52.50
r>' mn


52.50
AtL t4


87.50
1 tc nf\


87.50
L'> Cf


ivMnual labor 2.JV Q.0 iL .Vv oZL.jV
Total Costs 516.00 424.00 553.00 458.00 661.00 523.00 765.00 608.00
Cost excluding
rent of land 394.00 304.00 413.00 318.00 541.00 403.00 625.00 468.00


1/ Cash costs are computed by deducting the farm family labor from the total costs.
2/ Cost data includes depreciation costs and interest for machinery and bullocks.
Based on limited available data, this amounts to approximately 16 percent of the
total costs for gur.


75.00 75.00 75.00 75.00
1I.00 18.00 12.00 12.,0






-55-
Table 35 : Cost of Production of Cotton per
Acre at Different Levels of Production


1 10 'as/Acre. 1.3 Ms/Acre 20 Mds/Acre :25 Mds/Acro


Total, Cashl/ Total Caslh/i
Costs, Costs Costs' Costs ,
in Rs. in Rs. in Rs. in Rs.


; Total Cashl/
Items of Costs CostsCost
Sin Rs. in Rs.


Total Cash 1/
Costs Costs
in Rs. in Rz.


Land
Rent of land 90.00
Land revenue
& other taxes 8.60
tater
7ater rates 11.00
Irrigation labor.
charges 5.00
Bund making &
cleaning of
vater courses 5.00
Tilling
Ploughing &
plankings 2/ 35.40
Soving
Value of seed 5.50


90.00 120.00 120.00 120.00 120.00 130.00 150.00

8.60 8.60 8.60 8.60 8.60 8.60 8.60

11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00

0.00oo 5.00 0.00 6.00 0.00 6.00 0.00


2.50 5.00 2.50 5.00 2.50 5.00 2.50


22.75 41.18 23.73 45.00 26.00 52.00 30.30


3.50 3.50 3.50 5.00 5.00 6.00 6.00


ploughings &
planking for
sowing 2/ 7.25 4.00 7.25 4.00 7.25 4.00 7.25 4.00
Soedin( manual
labour) 2.50 1.25 2.50 1.25 2.50 1.25 2.50 1.25
Manure s and
fertilizer
(including trans-
porting & spread-
ing charges). 13.00 10.80 28.00 22.11 40.00 32.00 50.00 40.00
Intercultures 19.06 3.92 22.50 5.00 22.50 5.00 22.50 5.00
Picking 21.00 10.50 25.14 12.57 40.00 30.00 50.00 37.50

Total Costs: 221.00 169.00 280.00 214.00 313.00 245.00 351.00 276.00
costs cxcludT0ng
ro' t x land 30.00 79.00 160.00 94.00 193.00 125.00 221.00 146.00

1/ Oash costs are computed by deducting farm family
labour costs from the total costs.
2/ Cost data includes depreciation costs and interest for
machinery and bullocks. Based on limited data, this amounts
to approximately 10 percent of the total costs.


-- -L jl- ---- =L -- -


i i





-56-


Table 36: Cost of Production of Vegetables Per Acre

Kharif Vegetables Gross Crop Rabi Vegetables Gross Crop
Value Rs.600/Acre Value Rs.600/Acre
Total Cost Cash Cost Total Cost Cash Cost
Items of Costs in Rupees in Rupees Y in Rupees in Rupees -

Land
Rent of Land 60.00 60.00 80.00 80.00
Land Revenue & other
taxes 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00

Water
Water rates 13.60 13.60 13.60 13.60
Irrigation labor charges 6.00 0.00 6.00 0.00
Bund making & laying
out of water courses 4.00 0.00 4.00 0.00

Tilling
Ploughings &
plankings / 30.00 17.50 48.00 28.00

Sowing
Value of seed 50.00 50.00 50.00 50.00
Ridge making 20.00 10.00 20.00 10.00
Seeding (manual labor) 25.00 12.50 25.00 12.50

Manures and Fertilizers
Manures & fertilizers 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
Spreading & other
charges 10.00 5.00 10.00 5.00

Intercu Itures
Hoeing & weeding 25.00 12.50 50.00 25.00

Harvesting 25.00 0.00 50.00 25.00

Total C sts 377.00 26?. 00 465.00 357.00
Cost ex eluding the rent
of la n317.00 229.00 385.00 277.00

i/ Cas costs are computed by deducting the farm family cost from the total costs.
2/ Cos data includes depreciation and interest for machinery and bullocks but no
dat is available to determine the percentage of the total costs.








Tablo 97 Oe-ab of Pgoa us-con of PodAder s~ Aegr

-- rnarit .od.0er U0 Mdcs/Acrd Rabi Fodders 400Mds/Acre
Items of Cost Total Costs Cash Costs1/ Total CostsCashi Costs
in Rupees in Rupees n upes in Rupees/
I I I I
L and
Rent of land 60.00 60.00 70.00 70.00
Land revenue
& other taxes 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00
Water
Water rates 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00
Irrigation labor
charges 2.48 0.00 6.20 0.00
Bund making &
cleaning of water
courses 5.00 2.50 5.00 2.50
Tilling
Ploughing and
plankings 2/ 21.00 14.00 29.00 19.00


Value of seed 8.00 8.00 18.00 18.00
Ploughing and
plankings 2/ 7.25 4.00 7.25 4.00
Manures and
fertilizer 25.00 25.00 21.00 21.00
Intercultures
Weeding 5.00 2.50 5.00 2.50
Harvesting charges25.00 12.50 30.00 15.00

Tacl Costs. 171.00 140.00 2037.0 714.00
Costs excluding 111.00 80.00 133.00 94.00
rent of land.

/ Cash costs are computed by deducting the
farm family cost from the total costs.

2/ Cost data includes depreciation and interest for
machinery and bullocks but no data is available to
determine the percentage of the total costs.








-58-


production. The Harza Irrigation Agriculture Branch has therefore conducted
some field surveys in the Districts of Lyallpur, Montgomery, Multan, Jhang
and Muzaffargarh to determine the extent to which various cultivation
operations for a given crop are performed by the family and/or hired labor.

The Harza survey showed that on the average, the cost of family labor
amounts to about 21, 22, 21 and 24 percent of the total cost of production of
wheat, cotton, sugarcane and maize, respectively. We have analysed the
normal farm operations involved in cultivating rice, fodders, and vegetables.
On the basis of this analysis, we have concluded that family labor constitutes
24, 18, 19 and 23 percent of the total cost of production of rice, kharif
fodder, rabi fodder, and vegetables, respectively. On the average, the
cost of family labor is about 22 percent of the total cost of production per
cropped acre at present production levels.

A study of the Board of Economic Inquiry, Punjab / in the Districts
of Lyallpur, Gujranrwala, Jhelum and Muzaffargarh shows that the cost of
family labor amc-unts to about 21 percent of the total cost of production per
cropped acre (Table 38). Unfortunately however, this report does not give
family labor and per-:.i:-2- of the total cost of production for individual
crops.

The cost of production data in our report includes depreciation and
interest charges for ia-chinery and bullocks because available data sources
did not specify these charges separately. It is noted that the World Bank
"Methods and Economic Guidelines" require that these charges also be
deducted before net project benefits are calculated. Our estimates of
these costs, based on references 9 and 11 are shown in footnotes on some
of the cost of production tables.

The limited cost of production data analysed so far have been plotted
on graphs (available in tihe Harza files). The actual data points were indicated
and curves were drawn and extrapolated at both ends. The cash costs of
production were determined for each of the major crops by deducting the
cost of family labor from the total cost of production) and are shown by a
separate curve. We have some additional data of this type in our files but
these have not yet been analysed. Considerable more data on actual cost
at various production levels, however, should be collected and evaluated.







-59-

Table 38 Share of Manual Labor. in the Cost of
Production of Crops 1951-52 a/


District Cost Cos~ of ManualLabour
and Total b/ Cash c/ Total Family Hired
Tenure Rs. d/ Rs.
SI I I .
xlapgur
Peasant Prop. 178.14 135.30 61.68 42.84 24.05 18.82 10.56
Tenants 180.26 137.28 48.57 42.98 23.84 5.59 3.10

Average: 179.20 136.29 55.11 42.92 23.94 12.20 6.83

Lauiranvwala

Peasant Prop. 156.86 150.98 48.00 5.88 3.74 42.12 26.85

Tenants 130.30 107.52 35.74 22.78 17.48 12.96 9.87

Average: 143.58 129.30 41.87 14.33 10.61 27.54 18.36

Jhelum

Peasant Prop. 127.06 110.35 50.78 16.71 13.14 34.07 26.81

Tenants 111.58 66.58 45.00 45.00 403.2 -

Aver. a: 119.32 88.42 47.89 30.85 26.73

iMiuzaffargarh

Peasant Prop. 169.45 128.09 54.44 41.36 24.40 13.08 7.72

Tenants 123.32 92.88 33.12 30.44 24..8 2.68 2.17


146.38


147.12


110.48


116.12


43.78


47.16


35.90


31.00


24.54


21.46


8.24


16.16


4.94

10.98


a/ Reference 9.
/ Excluding water rates(Lyallpur water rates Rs.13/acre,
Gujranwala water rates s.6/acre)
c/ Total cost minus cost of family labour
/ As percentage of total cost
e/ Average of 20 holdings in four districts.


I


Average:

VEI-G: 9e/


- ~--~I-I-----~





-60-


POTENTIAL FUTURE AGRICULTURAL CONDITIONS

The early dead-isin imposed on the completion of this report did not
allow for a thorough evaluation of the probable rate of change from the
present agricultural condi-icns on through the life of the proposed Tarbela
Project. Analyses are provided, however, of some of the factors upon which
future conditions will be dependent, particularly cropping patterns, intensities
and yields. Available published yield projections are evaluated within the
context of these analyses.

Tarbela water will not become available before 1973 and during the
intervening period the agricultural economy is not likely to remain static.
Data on the preset:; cgi cultural economy, as given in previous sections of
this report, cannot thri:=;o- ue used directly in evaluating the "without"
Tarbela Reservoir condition. Estimates of any significant changes in output
during the inrerirn: niust be taken into account. Farmers will be taking
advantage of addition~ : avvcilcble water from tubewell projects. They will
adopt improved farm prwce e:; together with greater use of commercial ferti-
lizer, better seeds and insect control measures made possible through
Development Fivn-Yn';" Plcs.'s They will also adjust their cropping patterns
to take advantage c- Favomb le prico changes, if any, for certain crops.

The es'i r,:?; .,' t wo;Eih of agricultural costs and benefits at the time
of commencemrr:nt ,.-' -"'ounting the net income stream for the life
of the project) ore critically depc"nd1: wpon two factors:

(1) The c;ppec ,3d lev7l or the agricultural economy at
the time T-.b.t w:te:.~ comes available; and

(2) The time pactelr n of benefits and costs assumed
during the life of 1:6e project.

In other words, the net woi'h of agricultural benefits from Tarbela will be
a function of both the speed of build up in agricultural output in the impact
areas prior to 1973 und its corgtinu3d rate of increase during the life of the
project. Estimates in this regard are dependent in turn upon assumptions
about a number of factors that now function as constraints on present agri-
cultural production; (i e. shortage of irrigation water, waterlogging and
salinity, small car frr ~~orf- h',d.l-.,, use of primitive farm technology,
inadequate credit and marketing facilities and the like).

Future Cropping Patter, :d Intensities

It has been demonstrated that prez-rat average cropping intensities
on the culturable cor.;i:: dc aseas are quite low. Significant acreages
of cultivable areas are left in fallow and much of the remaining cropped






-61-


areas are under-irrigated. Inadequate water applications give rise to
increasing salinity in the root zones and this in turn has adversely affected
yield levels.

Overall, there is considerably less than optimum use of land, water,
labor, and capital resources in the study areas at the present time. Short-
range plans of West Pakistan, however, call for a major increase in agri-
cultural output in order to clothe and feed a rapidly expanding population
and to earn foreign exchange through greater agricultural exports. If these
goals are to be met, improved cropping patterns and intensities will have to
be adopted as soon as possible.

The objectives of future cropping patterns and intensities include:

(1) Increase agricultural output for domestic consumption and
export;

(2) Improve salinity control;

(3) Obtain higher returns per acre of land under irrigation;

(4) Increase efficiency per unit of irrigation water delivered
to the farm.

It was noted in a previous section of this report that individual farmers
in the study area are presently achieving cropping intensities in the 150-200
percent range. Assuming that adequate water supplies can be made avail-
able, average intensities of 150 percent (kharif 60 rabi 90) could be
achieved within a relatively short period, perhaps within 5 to 10 years.
A major improvement could therefore be made prior to water availability
from Tarbela through temporary use of excess water from tubewell programs
in the fresh ground water areas. The complimentary development of tube-
well projects and the Tarbela Froject merits careful study.

A feasible cropping pattern that would achieve an intensity of 150
percent is given in Table 39 and in Figures 3 through 7. A 90 percent
intensity during the rabi season is incorporated because water requirements
are lowest during this season. In addition, root zone salinity would be
controlled by providing an adequate supply to crop 90 percent of the
culturable area. Since wheat is a major rabi crop, increased intensity
during this period is in line with meeting the expanded food production
goals of the nation. More than half of the C.C.A. could be devoted to
wheat during the rabi season under this cropping pattern.

The intensity during the kharif season is held at 60 percent. Economic
considerations play a major role in the selection of the crops to be grown.




STable 39 x dcAoa oft Lu 6li.g; ~ .
and Intensities in Seicue Irri-
gated Areas of the Indus Plains.


Season/
Crop


-- orcFnt of C. C A.
Bahawal,
Haveli & P'-njnad Thal
Sidhnai Mailsi Abbasia


!i/--- rf-
Ghotkia/Khairpuxr
I I
r !


Kharif


2 (5
0


Fruits 5
Sugarcane 5
Vegetables 5
Cotton 20
Rice 5
Maize 10
Others (Jowar,
Guar, Pulses etc) -
Fodders 10


5

6 10O


Sub. Total. 60 60 60 60 60 60

Rabi
Fruits 5 5 5 2 (
(5
Sugarcane 5 5 5 10

Vegetables 10 5 3 2 -
WTheat 52 50 50 50 35 35
Fulses 5 9 9 8 10 10
Oilseeds 5 10 10 10 20 20
Fodder 8 8 8 8 20 20
Others


Sub. Total 90 90 90 90 90 90

GiRA;lD TOTAL. 150 150 150 150 150 150


a/ These cropping patterns and intensities have
suggested by the L.I.P. Consultants in their
for the World Bank dated August, 1964.


been
memorandum


b/ Summer grains.


-_ -----_ill~- L- i--







-63-


Figure 3:


FUTURE CRO:PLT-TC- PATTERN OF 150 PERCENT
INTENSITY, HAVILI AND3 SIDTIMAI CANALS AREAS


Fruits 5 %
Sugarcane 5 %
Vegetables 5 %


\ Oilseed. 5 %


Cotton 20 %


Rice 5 % ^


Maize 10


\Vegetables 5%


Interplanted


Pulsos 5 %


C-,
/0


Fodder 8 %


~C~`-'-.5 t-1-----_----


Fodder 10 %


T7heat 52 %








I I


Iay June July Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr.


10

9C

U'c

07C


-i
0
5C


I I


\j


i


---~----- --,-


- -- ----


'r, --- --------------------


1


";'~L W


_ ~__~r I__ -


1_ _-I


ill r J -- I' I


).

).










Figure l: PFuture Cropping Patt erin of 150 Percent
Intensity for the Mailsi Canal Area.









100
Fruits 5 %
Sugarcane 5
90 Vegetable 3 1
.. Rice
so0 -. Pulses 9. %
Oilseed. 5 %
70 Cotton 20 ntor nt
0 Intorplanted
I ,_______\ ,_________
60 \ Berseem 5 %
Oilseed. 5 %
O 50 Maize 10% Berseem
o Li0oBe r S

( 0 Fodd er
S 10t 50
Cf


May June July Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb* Mar. Apr.










Figure 5: Future Cropping Patterns of 150 Percent
Intensity for the Bahawal, Punjnad and.
Abbasia Canals Areas.








100.
Fruits 5 %
Sugarcane 5
90 _. -
Ve9etables

*. Rice 5 Pulses 9 %

f O ^ ilseed.s 5 %

0 Cotton 20
70 2 \ Interplanted

0 Berseem 8%
0 T/iMaize 10, Oilseed 5
r 50 __

Fodder 10

S!-i ITheat 50 %

30


20



10 June J S O Dec Jan Feb Mar,

flay June July Aug. Sep, Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan, Feb. Mar, Apr*









- 66 -


Figure 6: Future Cropping Pattern of 150
Percent Intensity, Upper Thal Area









100 yrumtt qO

Sugarcane 10%
90 _____


80 Cotton 15% Oilseeds


70 Rice 5o Interplanted


6~" 603 Maize 10 \ Fodder 8%
<4 V\ M Pulses TI,
S50 Others 6 Pulses

40 Fodder 10io
040o

SWheat 50%o
o 5 \


20


in

t% - - - L J L .c 11i r - ** - . i . ..~n . 11 .


Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr.


May












Fi-ure 7: Future Croroing Patterns of 150 Percent
Intensity for the Ghotki and Ihairpur Areas


ry June July Aug. Sop. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr.


100,


90

S.

o

0


0
0


40





-66-


Cotton is a high value export commodity and under this cropping pattern,
the maximum possible acreage is in this crop. The percentage in cotton
would range from 15 percent of the C.C.A. in the Thai Area to about 20
percent in the Multan and Bahawalpur Areas. Sugarcane would be kept to
a minimum acreage of about five percent in most of the study areas in view
of low world sugar prices. In the Thai Area, however, the acreage would
be set at 10 percent in order to serve its two local sugar mills.

The allocation of acreage to fruits and vegetables was made in con-
sideration of the varying limitations of transportation, markets and climatic
factors in each of the study areas. The Multan and Bahawalpur areas, for
example, appear to have a comparative advantage over the Thai Area for
the production of fruits such as manroes and dates. Likewise, transportation
facilities and nearby markets favor the production of vegetables in the Multan
District.

It was assumed that eight and 10 percent of the C.C.A. would be
needed in forage crops in the Former Punjab areas during the rabi and kharif
seasons, respectively. These figures are only tentative because a careful
analysis of the probable future livestock s;hation has not yet been made.
With increasing mechaniz-aion, the forage requirements for draft animals
will certainly decline. Correspondingly, however, increased production
of milk and meat may more than offset the decline in draft animal requirements.
Over time,high quality forage will replace straw as a basic forage source.
The forage aspect of the future cropping pattern will require careful addi-
tional study. From 13 to 17 percent of the C.C.A. would be devoted to soil
building leguminous crops such as pulses and berseem each year.

Future cropping patterns and intensities for the Ghotki and the Khairpur
canal commands are also given in Table 39. These have been suggested by
the L. I.P. Consultants for the former North Sind areas in their memorandum
of August, 1964 to the World Bank Consultants.35

Effect of Improved Farm Management Practices

Increases in crop yields are achieved by the interaction of a number
of improved farm management practices. Among these are:



2. Leaching of soils;

3. Greater use of fertilizers;


4. Improved seeds anri lant protection measures;







5. Improved cultivation and harvesting practices;


6. Extension and education, services.

We have not yet made an estimate of the probable net effect of the above
listed factors. Available data are provided in the following paragraphs on
potential increases from these factors as if each could be considered in
isolation. These data are used only for illustration; it must be recognized,
however, that overall net increases may likely be more than cumulative.

Potential Increase Due to Full Water Supplies

Early production increases are obtainable in the study areas with
additional irrigation water from tubewells and/or canal enlargement and
remodelling. Increases in yields due to additional water in canal irrigation
areas of the Former RPnjab have been estimated by the White House-Interior
Panel and are reproduced in Table 40. 5/

It follows from this single set of data that some crop yields
cannot be increased significa.ntly n'mrely by providing adequate water.
(Exceptions are rice, millets, coion and maize). An increased water
supply, however, leads to increased agricultural production in several
other ways. Among these are:

(1) !t allows for increased irrigation depth and thus
helps to mairiain favorable soil conditions by pre-
venting salt accumulation in the root zones;

(2) It enables expansion of the cropped acreage on
to fallow culturable areas;

(3) The increased supply enables reclamation and
subsequent cultivation of saline soils;

(4) It stimulates the adoption of improved farm
technology.

Potential Increases Due to Leaching of Salts from the Root Zone

As the salts in the upper soil horizons are leached downward,
crop yields can be significantly increased. Available estimates of these
increases are shown in Table 41., / The Panel Report states (Page 192)
that, on the average, an 1C percent increase in the value of crops can
be achieved by the leaching of salts from the soils of the Former Punjab.









-70-

Tablo 40 : Increases in Yield per Acre
due to Increased waterr Supply a/


Crop


"hea t

Barley

C2rr a r

Oilsoods

Rice

Su1:arcano

Jowa r

Bajra

Maize

Cotton


Present
Avera ge
Yield
VNaunds


12. 24

10.1

10.2

7.0

11.6

30.3

7.4

6.6

11.9

6.6


Yields
'Tit F]aull
'later Su-2lly
I.aund s


12.4

10.5

10.2

7.0

14. 1

31.5

8.2

0.3

13.4

7.5


Increase in Yield
oiaunds Percentage


2.5

1.2

0.0

1.7

1.5

0,9


I




I


I


a/ Reference 5, tables 5.5 and 5.6






-71-


Table 41 : Estimated Yield Increases of Various
Crops due to Soil Desalination as a
Function of Initial Salt Qontents a/


Estimated Yield Increase due to Soil Desalination


Wheat Cotton
- 7


Initial
Salt Contonts Maize &
of Soil SuEarcane Rice
0/ -7 0-


1 14

- 56

5 117


54 11


100


- 100


a/ Reference 5, table 2.6.


Barle2 S.Beats Beans
56 .


0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.40

0.50


185


150


12

41

100


- -- --- ~- -- --





-72-


Potential Increase Due to Greater Use of Fertilizer

The use of fertilizers is presently very limited in the Indus Plains
but significant increases in yields could be achieved with increased use. The
estimated effect of nitrogen fertilizers, for example, is shown in Table 42.

Potential Yield Increases Due to Improved Seeds and
Plant Protection Measures

Estimates of the percentage increases in yields that are considered
possible with the use of improved seeds and plant protection measures are
given in Table 43.

Effects of improved Cultivation

We have no available estimates of the effect on yields that can
be achieved with improved farm practices such as better ploughing, more
extensive use of row cultivation, better weed control, timely seeding of
crops, proper spacing of plants, seeding rate, etc. but we believe that
such increases are significant. Similarly, increases in yields due to inter-
action of various agricultural inputs have not been thoroughly evaluated.

Effect of Extension Programs

The need for expansion of extension and education services for
farmers cannot be overemphasized Without access to knowledge, farmers
will not realize full benefits from improved agricultural inputs. Even with
a significantly larger and more effective extension program, overall increases
in overage yields will likely develop at only a modest rate; capitaliand
institutional constraints are not easily overcome.

It must be recognized that the most spectacular yield increases
in other developing countries have been achieved with one crop at a time;
the tripling of wheat yields in Mexico in 17 years is an example. While a
doubling of wheat yields within 10 years in West Pakistan is predicted by
Dr. J.B. Harrington, Adviser to the Department of Agriculture, large
yield increases for most other crops except cotton do not appear attainable.
The technical feasibility of large increases has been demonstrated but
realization at the fcrm level rn,-rirs the timely availability and utilization
of complimentary inputs to irrigation water such as improved seeds, com-
mercial fertilizers and the like.

Long Term Yield Projections

The rate of future yield increases in the study areas will be in part
a function of the present low yield levels. Average crops yields are









-73-


Table 42 : Fertilizer Application
and Increases in Yields a/


Cro-

Wheat

Rice

Maize

Sugarcane

Cotton

Tobacco

Fruits

Vegetables

Fodder


Nitrogen
Applied
L'bs/Acre

30

34

34

69

52

34

52

52

34


Increase
in Yield


36

27

47

38

30

14

14

14

14


a/ Reference 5, table 2.4.








-74-


Table 43 Estimates of Yield Increases
due to Improved Seeds and Plant
Protection Measures a/


Crops

Rice (Cleaned)

Whe at

Maize

Bajra

Sugarcane (Gur)

Gram

Cotton

Oilseeds

Tobacco

Fruits

Potatoes

Other Vegetables


Percentage Increase


62

14

55

11

23

4

47

20

183

12

6

12


a/ Report Table 2.5. White House-Interior
Panel Report, page 122, 1964.






-75-


extremely low compared to the yields being realized in more developed
countries as cited in reference 5 (Table 9). These yields in selected foreign
countries are from two to four times higher, for example, than average
yields presently obtained in irrigated areas in the Former Punjab.

The experimental work at the Ayub Agricultural Research Institute,
Lyallpur (former Punjab Agricultural College and Research Institute,
Lyallpur) and its sub-stations has demonstrated time and again that, with
adequate inputs, higher crop yields than those shown in Table 9 are possible
in the study areas. Due to production constraints, however, most farmers
have not been able to obtain these higher yields.

Estimates of long-term yield increases have been published by the
White House-Interior Panel / and Harza Engineering Company International
(Table 44). Both sets of projections are overall averages for all crops.
Separate projections for each of the major crops in the probable future
cropping pattern must be developed before detailed agricultural benefit
calculations can be made.

The White House-Interior Fanel concludes that, with intensive develop-
ment and improved farming practices, average production increases could
amount to 15 percent compounded annually during the first five years and
7.5 percent per year compounded thereafter for an indefinite period. Crop
yields would thus be increased to 201, 300, 400 and 600 percent of present
yields after 5, 10, 15, and 20 years, respectively. These figures are placed
in perspective when compared to the projected population increase of 100
percent in the next 25 years.

The Harza Appraisal Report estimates equal those of the White House-
Interior Panel only for the first 5 years. Thereafter, Harza assumed non-
compounded rates of increase of 7.5 percent, 2.3 percent and 1.6 percent
for the second, third, and fourth 5-year periods, respectively. According
to these estimates, future yields would increase to 201, 276, 310 and 335
percent after 5, 10, 15 and 20 years, respectively. It should be noted that
the yield estimates in the Harza Appraisal Report are on a per-acre basis
rather than for total area yields as is the case in the Panel Report. Further-
more, Harza assumed that it will take an average of V years to go from present
cropping intensities to the projected 150 percent level.

The costs involved in bringing about expected yield increases,
particularly for the higher output levels, have not been given in any
detail in either of these two reports. Such data must now be developed.
In addition, these estimates should be reevaluated in relation to projected
population growth. The question is: How realistic are assumed increases
of agricultural output -anGing from 2T5 percent to 600 percent during a
period when population is expected to double (i.e. a 100 percent increase)?





-76-


Table 44 :Projpctod Crop Yields as a
Percentage of Present Yields


Year
Af ter
Reclamation


Panel a/
Report -a


Appraisal b/
Report


100
115
132
152
175
201

216
232
250
269
289

311
344
359
386
415
446
480
516
555
597


15%
Compounded


100
115
132
152
175
201

216
231
246
261
276

283
290
296
303
310

315
320
325
330
335


7.5% c/
Compounded


15%
Compounded



7.5% Simple




2.3 %
Simple


1.6 %
Simple c/


a/ White House-Interior Panel Report, Page 131,
and Figure 3.1 on page 166, 1964. It is noted
that the increases estimated in the Panel
report refer to area production, not to increases
in yields per acre.

b/ "Supporting Studies, an Appraisal of Resources
and Potential Development Harza Engineering
Company International, September, 1963.


c/ These increases continue indefinitely.







-77-


If indeed such overall yield increases are achieved in West Pakistan, this
nation will soon be faced with a surplus problem of the same magnitude now
being experienced in the United States. While these increases appear
optimistic for West Pakistan as a whole, they certainly could be approached,
or perhaps even attained, in some of the study areas just as extremely high
yields are being obtained, for example, in California's Imperial Valley in
the United States.

Of the two available sets of yield projections, the Harza Appraisal
Report estimates appear to be the most realistic. It is our judgement,
however, that a vigorous and effective extension program will be needed
in the study areas to achieve even the yield projections used in the Harza
Appraisal Report. Large increases can be realized initially but the rate of
increase will diminish as the yields approach those obtained in more
developed countries. The 1.6 percent rate of increase projected after the
fifteenth year of reclamation, however, could be expected to continue
indefinitely as a result of continued long-term improvement in farm
technology.






-7 -

References


t. 'Aereage, Froduction and Frices of Major Agricultural Crops of
West Pakistan (Punjab), 1?31-59". Institute of Development
Economics, Karachi, June 1961.

2. "Khairpur Project Flanning Report", Report No. 3, pp. 170,
App. i through IX, 19 Figs., and 5 Plates, Hunting-MacDonald,
1962.

3. "Revised Gudu Barrage Project, 1963", with sub-title: "Project
Report and Cost Estimates, Development and Coordination Division,
WAPDA, Lahore, pp. 64, 1963.

4. "Markets and Prices Wholesale Prices of Agricultural and
Livestock Products in Important Markets of Pakistan", Ministry
of Food & Agriculture, Government of Pakistan, Monthly
Publication, 1961, 1962, 1963.

5. U.S. White House-Interior Panel, "Report on Land and Water
Development in the Indus Plains", pp. 454, App. A. 1 through
A. 1964.

6. "Supporting Studies, an Appraisal of Resources and Potential
Development", A Program for Water and Power Development
in West Pakistan 1962-1975", Hcrza Engineering Company
International, September, 1763.

7. "Statistical Data Related to Water and Power Development in
West Pakistan", (Revised Edition), Directorate of Planning &
Investigations, VWAPDA, 1,64.

,. "Statistics of West Pakistan, Agricultural Data by Divisions and
Districts, 1947-4C, 1958-59", Bureau of Statistics, Planning
and Development Department, Lahore, 1960.

9. Ch. Karam Rasul, "Farm Accounts and Family Budgets of
Cultivators in the Punjab, 1951-52", Board of Economic
Inquiry, Punjab (Pakistan), Publication No. 119, pp. 73, 195C.

10. "Survey Report on Cropping Pattern and Crop Intensities in
Selected Cistricts of Pakistan", apartmentt of Agricultural
Economics and Statistics, Ministry of Food and Agriculture,
1961.






-7 -


11. "Cost of Production of Major Crops", Board of Economic Enquiry,
Punjab (Pakistan) 1961-62.

12. Unpublished data, Statistical Section, Department of Agriculture,
West Pakistan, Lahore.

13. "Report on the Season and Crops of North Zone, West Pakistan",
Lahore, 1950-51 through 1959-60, Department of Revenue.

14. Unpublished data, Statistical Section, Cffice of the Deputy
Director of Agriculture, Lahore Division, July, 1964.

15. "Fifty Years of Agricultural Education and Research at the Punjab
Agricultural College and Research Institute", Lyallpur, West
Pakistan, Department of Agriculture, West Pakistan, Vol. I
and II, 1960.

(a) Saeed Ahmad, "Fruit Culture and Fruit Preservation",
Vol. I, Chapter VIII, p. 96.

(b) Abdur Rashid Khan, "Vegetables", Vol. I, Chapter VI, p. 40.

(c) Musahib-ud-Din Khan, "Fodders, Spices and other Miscel-
laneous Crops", Vol. I, Chapter VII, p. 46.

16. Dr. Abdullah, and Ch. Abdul Wahid, "Report of the Survey on
Mango and Other Fruits in Multan District", Department of
Agriculture, West Pakistan, p. 39, 1962.

17. Dr. Saeed Ahmad, "Mango", Bureau of Agricultural Information,
West Pakistan, Lahore, 1963.

IC;. Dr. Saeed Ahmad, "Citrus Fruits", (Urdu) Bureau of Agricultural
Information, West Pakistan, January, 1964.

17. Dr. Saeed Ahmad, "Date Falm" (Urdu), Bureau of Agricultural
Information, West Pakistan, Lahore, January, 1964.

20. "Report on the Marketing of Fresh Fruits in Pakistan", Cooperative
and Marketing Adviser, Government of Pakistan, Karachi, 195C.

21. "Land and Crop Statistics of Pakistan", Department of Agricultural
Economics and Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, Government of
Pakistan, 1962.

22. "Ziraat Nama", Department of Agriculture, West Pakistan, Lahore,
Weekly Journal.









(a) Kharif Number, May, 1962.


(b) Rabi Number, September, 1962.

23. D. Milne, Ali Mohammad and Zafar Alam "Handy Notes for
Agriculturists and Horticulturists", undated.

24. Mohammad Shafi Gill and Musahib-ud-Din Khan, "Fodder Chart",
Bureau of Agricultural Information, West Pakistan, Lahore, undated.

25. Dr. Mohammad Abdullah, Bashir Ahmad Wahla and Mirzo Aziz Beg,
"Marketing of Mangoes in Multan", 1963.

26. "Khanpur Dam Project Report", Cost of Cultivation of Crops",
WAPDA Press, Vol. III, Part III, January, 1962.

27. A. G. Asghar, "Cost of Cultivation of an Acre of Rice and Cost
of Cultivation of an Acre of Gram in Wad Watter of Rice",
April, 1962.

2E. Ali Mohammad, "Investigation into the Methods of Calculating
Cost of Production of Agriculture Crops", M.Sc. Agri. Thesis,
Punjab University, Lahore, 1955.

29. Abdul Hamid Jawaid, "Cost of Production of Major Agriculture
Crops in Tehsil Toba Tek Singh", M.Sc. Agri. Thesis, Punjab
University, Lahore, 1960.

30. Mohammad Saleem, "Cost of Production of Major Agricultural
Crops in Sheikhupura Tehsil", M.Sc. Thesis, Agricultural
University, Lyallpur, 1962.

31. "Information on Cost of Cultivation of Different Crops", Lecture
Notes from Agronomy Department, Agricultural University, Lyallpur,
undated.

32. "Information on Cost of Cultivation of Different Crops", Lecture
Notes from Agricultural Economics Department, Agricultural
Univer-;ty, LyaFlipur, urndted.

33. M. Altaf Hussain, "Notes on the Cost of Production of Crops",
Ministry of Food and Agriculture, Government of Pakistan, 1959.

34. Dr. Rahim Chaudhry, "Treasury of Researches in Agriculture,
Volume I (Field Crops)", Extension Workers Reference Publication
No. 5, Department of Agriculture, West Pakistan, Lahore, 1957.









-w-

35. Memorandum of the L. I.P. Consultants to the World Bank in regard
to agricultural evaluations of the Former Sind, August, 1964.

36. "Crops Vegetables and Fruits in Pakistan" Fact Series No. 2,
Ministry of Food ': Agriculture, Agricu!tural economics .
Statistical Section, Government of Pakistan, Karachi, 1955.

37. "C'ptimum Cotton growing periods in the Former Punjab Regions"
(Urdu), Research paper No. 5, Cotton Section, Ayuk Agricultural
Research Institute, Lyal!pur, bureauu of Agricultural Information,
Lahore, Undated.








- 82 -


APPENDIX


Harvest Crop Prices in Selected Districts


Table No.

I

II

III

IV

V

VI

VII

VIII


Item

Barley

Jowar

Bajra

Maize

Gram

Rape Seed

Toria

Tobacco


Page No.

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90







-03-


Table I : Harvest Price of Barley in Selected
Districts, 1950 1963. a/


Year Multan Bahawalpur Mianwali Sargodha
Rs./Md. -

1950-51 5.0 -
1951-52 8.3 7.6 -
1952-55 10.0 10.7 10.0
1953-54 8.0 5.3 6.5
1954-55 6.5 5.0 6.1 5.0

1955-56 7.0 9.5 6.8 8.0
1956-57 8.8 10.0 7.9 10.0
1957-58 9.5 10.5 10.0 10.0
1958-59 10.3 9.0 9.0 10.0
1959-60 11.0 12.5 12.5 11.3
1960-61 11.4 10.0 11.0 10.0
1961-62 11.5 10.5 9.9 8.9
1962-65 10.8 -


a/ Reference 15.








.84.


Table II :


Harvest Price of Jowar in
Selected Districts, 1950-63. a/


Multan Bahawalpur Mianwali
----Rs/Md----


6.8

11,8

15.0

9.0

7.0

7.0
11.0

10.5

10.0

11.0

13.0

13.5


5.0

7.0

7.5
12.e

18.0

13.0

13.3
10.0

9.5


6.0

7.6
14.0

8.0

7.7
7.8

9.0

13.0

7.9
12.3
16.0

15.0


Year


,/ Reference 13.


Sarodha




15.0

11.0

7.5
8.0

7.5
11.0

11.0

12.0

12.4

14.0

10.8


1950-51

1951-52

1952-53

1953-54
1954-55

1955-56

1956-57

1957-58
1958-59

1959-60
1960-61

1961-62

1962-63








-85-


Table Il :


Harvest Price of Bajra in
Selected Districts, 1950-63 a/


Bahawalpur Mianwali
Rs/Md -


1950-51

1951-52

1952-53

1953-54

1954-55

1955-56

1956-57

1957-58

1958-59

1959-60
1960-61

1961-62

1962-63


6.0

10.0

15.3

9.8

8.4

8.6

12.1

14.0

9.1

13.5

16.0

14.1


Year


a/ Reference 13.


Multan


Sargodha


8.0

11.0

13.0

9.0
7.8

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

12.3

13.6

12.7


8.0

13.3
18.0

12.0

8.0

9.0

11.3

15.5
17.0

14.5

14.3

14.3


7.0

10.0

11.0

15.0
15.0

15.0

14.8

11.5
11.8









Table IV Harvest Price of Maize in
Selected Districts, 1950-65. a/


Year Multan Bahawalpur Mianwali Sargodha

Rs./Md -

1950-51 -
1951-52 15.5 17.0
1952-53 17.5 15.0
1953-54 13.0 9.0
1954-55 6.4 7.0 7.5
1955-56 9.3 8.0 10.0
1956-57 12.5 8.0 11.0
1957-58 12.5 10.5 13.0
1958-59 11.0 12.0 -13.0
1959-60 13.0 16.0 -14.2
1960-61 14.6 14.8 -13.7
1961-62 12,8 12.0 12.5
1962-65 12.0-


a/ Reference 13.








-07-


Table V Harvest Price of Gram in
Selected Districts, 1950-63. a/


Year Multan Bahawalpur Mianwali Sargodha
--Rs/Md--

1950-51 8,0 7.0 7.5

1951-52 11.8 11.6 12.0
1952-53 14.5 15.3 16.0

1953-54 8.0 7.1 7.5
1954-55 7-4 7-0 7.8 7.5

1955-56 9.0 10.0 8.4 8,0
1956-57 10,0 10.0 9,0 10.0

1957-58 13.5 12.5 14.0 13.5
1958--59 15,0 14.0 12.6 15.5
1959-60 12 1 14214,3 14.1
1930-61 14.9 13.0 16.0 13.6
1961--62 15.0 14.5 13.2 14.7
1962-63 14.0 -


a/ Reference 15.




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