• TABLE OF CONTENTS
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 Front Cover
 Title Page
 Summary
 Table of Contents
 List of Tables
 List of Figures
 Main
 Appendix














Title: Calculation of net agricultural benefits for the Priority 1 areas of Tarbela Reservoir
CITATION THUMBNAILS PAGE IMAGE ZOOMABLE
Full Citation
STANDARD VIEW MARC VIEW
Permanent Link: http://ufdc.ufl.edu/UF00073326/00001
 Material Information
Title: Calculation of net agricultural benefits for the Priority 1 areas of Tarbela Reservoir
Physical Description: v, 30 leaves : ill. ; 29 cm.
Language: English
Creator: Harza Engineering Company
West Pakistan Water and Power Development Authority
Publisher: Harza Engineering Company International,
Harza Engineering Company International
Place of Publication: Lahore West Pakistan
Publication Date: 1964
Copyright Date: 1964
 Subjects
Subject: Agricultural development projects -- Pakistan -- Tarbela   ( lcsh )
Water resources development -- Pakistan -- Tarbela   ( lcsh )
Genre: non-fiction   ( marcgt )
Spatial Coverage: Pakistan
 Notes
Statement of Responsibility: a report by Harza Engineering Company International ; prepared for Water and Power Development Authority of West Pakistan.
General Note: Spiral bound.
 Record Information
Bibliographic ID: UF00073326
Volume ID: VID00001
Source Institution: University of Florida
Holding Location: University of Florida
Rights Management: All rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier: oclc - 81894868

Table of Contents
    Front Cover
        Front Cover 1
        Front Cover 2
    Title Page
        Title Page
    Summary
        Page i
        Page ii
    Table of Contents
        Page iii
    List of Tables
        Page iv
    List of Figures
        Page v
    Main
        Page 1
        Page 2
        Page 3
        Page 4
        Page 5
        Page 6
        Page 7
        Page 8
        Page 9
        Page 10
        Page 11
        Page 12
        Page 13
        Page 14
        Page 15
        Page 16
        Page 17
        Page 18
        Page 19
        Page 20
        Page 21
        Page 22
        Page 23
        Page 24
        Page 25
        Page 26
        Page 27
        Page 28
        Page 29
    Appendix
        Page 30
        Page 31
        Page 32
        Page 33
        Page 34
        Page 35
        Page 36
        Page 37
        Page 38
        Page 39
        Page 40
Full Text








CALCULATION OF NET AGRICULTURAL BENEFITS
FOR THE PRIORITY I AREAS OF TARBELA RESERVOIR


A REPORT BY
HARZA ENGINEERING COMPANY INTERNATIONAL





PREPARED FOR
WATER AND POWER DEVELOPMENT AUTHORITY
OF WEST PAKISTAN








LAHORE, WEST PAKISTAN
OCTOBER, 1964










Summary


This report provides estimates of net agricul-

tural benefits per acre-foot of Tarbela storage that

could be utilized to achieve crop irrigation intensi-

ties and harvesting intensities of 150 and 140 per-

cent, respectively, in the Priority I areas. The

30,000 acres in the culturable commanded area of

Abbasia were excluded from this analysis because an

irrigation intensity of 150 percent can be attained

without Tarbela water.

Calculations are based on an assumed medium or

moderate level of inputs. This corresponds approxi-

mately to the assumptions underlying the yield pro-

jection curve in the Harza Appraisal Report. The

report under preparation by the World Bank Consul-

tants will be for three levels of input-low, medium

and high. An analysis of the effects of a low level

of inputs could be made from these data by extending

the time period in which a given yield could be

attained. One could assume, for example that the

projected 1980 yield level for wheat would not be

attained until 2023. ThL high level response could

be similarly approximated by transposition of the

moderate curve in time or by using the curve from the

White House Panel report.









(ii)

Net agricultural benefits creditable to

Tarbela were determined by calculating the difference

in net returns between With and Without Tarbela con-

ditions for each year of project benefits (1974-2023).

Calculations were made separately for each of the

Priority I areas.

Approximately 2.8 million acre-feet of Tarbela

storage can be utilized in the combined Priority I

areas (taking conveyance losses into account). The

average annual return per acre-foot for this amount

is $ 39.44, with a present worth of $ 14.79 at 4 per-

cent interest. Estimates of the net return per acre

foot of additional Tarbela storage are not provided

in this report, nor have computations been made for

high and low levels of inputs.










(iii)

CONTENTS
Page

Summary ................................................. i.

Introduction...................... ... ...... ........ .... 1

Assumptions and Conditions............................ 1

Present Economic Situation .............................. 5

Yield Projections for Individual Crop Categories........ 7

Cost of Production Projections.......................... 12

Future Cropping Patterns ............................... 13

Pre-Tarbela Reclamation Development..................... 15

Acreages for "With" and "Without" Tarbela Situation..... 15

Net Agricultural Benefits Per Acre...................... 21

Total Net Agricultural Benefits......................... 23

Net Benefits With Tarbela.......................... 23

Net Benefits Without Tarbela........................ 23

Net Benefits Attributable to Tarbela................ 25

Area Differences in Net ReturnsPer Acre Foot of Storage..27

Appendix......... ... ............... ..... ............... 30

Figures I-VII; Cost of Production Curves.............

Tables I-VI: Basic Calculations,................... -








(iv)


LIST OF TABLES


No. Title Page

1. Prosent Yields, Gross Returns, Cost
of Production and Net Returns per acre in
tho Tarbela Priority I Areas................... 6

2. Percentage Deviations from Projections
of Averago Crop Yields, by Major Crop *
Categories .............,.... .... ......... 9

3. Projected Yield Increases as a Percent
of Base Period, by Major Crop Categories ..... 10

4. Future Cropping Patterns, Irri7ation
Intensities and Harvesting Intensities
in the Priority I Areas, With and
Without Tarb la ........................... 14

5. Projection of Crop Acrea'e Harvested
in the Priority I areas, With and
Without Tarbela, 1974-2023,.................. 20

6. Porcenta-e Distribution of Crops
Grown per Crop Acre, Priority I
Areas, -ith and Without Tarbela .............. 22

7. Su-imary of Net Aoricultural Bene-
fits, Tarbela Priority I Areas ............ .. 24

8. Present :forth of Not A7,ricultural
Benefits Credited to Tarbela in
the Priority I Areas .... ................... 26

9. Net Agricultural Benefits per acre
Foot of Tarbela 'Vater in the Priority
I Areas .......... ....... ................... 28










(v)
LIST OF FIGURES



No. Title Page


1. Projected Crop Yields 1970 2023....... 11

2. Irrigation and Crop Harvesting Intensities,
Sidhnai-Haveli Project Areas............... 16

3. Irrigation and Crop Harvesting Intensities,
Mailsi Project Area ....................... 17

4. Irrigation and Crop Harvesting
Intensities, Panjnad Project Area......... 18

5. Irrigation and Crop Harvesting Intensities,
Bahawal Project Area.......... .......... 19







CALCULATION OF NET AGRICULTURAL BENEFITS
FOR THE PRIORITY I AREAS OF TARBELA RESERVOIR (*)

Introduction

This report is a logical sequel to a recent Harza

study of the agricultural economy in irrigated areas of

the Indus Plainsr Direct net agricultural benefits, with

and without Tarbela, are provided only for the Tarbela

Priority I areas. These are: Sidhnai and Haveli; Mailsi;

Panjnad; and Bahawal.2/ Secondary benefits have not been

evaluated.

Assumptions and Conditions

1. The Tarbela project life is assumed to be 50 years,

from 1973 through 2023.

2. Net agricultural benefit calculations are limited te

the Priority I areas.

3. The Harza report, "An Analysis of the Present Agri-

cultural Economy in Selected Irrigated Areas of the

Indus Plains", was used as the basic reference/


(*)This report was prepared by Dr. K.C. Nobe, Chief,
Irrigation Agriculture Branch, with the technical
assistance of Dr. A.M. Chaudhry and Mr. N.A. Goraya,
Senior Agronomists. Mr. M. Hussain, Junior Agronomist,
provided the basic data tabulations.
1/ Harza Engineering Company Internationsl, An Analysis
of the Present Agricultural Economy in Selected
Irrigated Areas of the Indus Plains, Lahore, West
Pakistan, September, 1964.
2/ The Abbasia culturable commanded area of 50,000 acres
was not included for benefit calculation purposes
because an irrigation intensity of 150 percent can be
attained without Tarbela water.






- 2 -


4. Estimates of present (1963) crop yields were based on

data for the 1950-1963 period and adjusted for trend

line significance where appropriate. In addition, yields

we-ro increased to adjust for underestimation in published

data, as follows:

a. T'hoat: 7 percent

b. Rico: None

c. All other crop categories: 5 percent

5. The future Uith Tarbola cropping pattern, at 150 percent

crop irrigation intensity and 140 percent crop harvesting

intensity, was assumed as given in the basic reference.

The sanie crop categories were used for the WTithout Tar-

bola situation but at lower levels of intensity (those

attainable only with the combined present surface supplies

and the resulting ground water recharge without Tarbela)

6. The assumed future cropping pattern includes seven major

crop categories. These are:

a o hea t

b. Cotton (American)

c. Rice

d. Maize

e.o Fodder

f. Sugarcane fruit vegetables

go All others (Includine -:ulses, oil seeds and
minor crops).

7. Crops grown will vary by rabi and kharif seasons; both

seasons are included in the benefit calculations.






- 3 -


0o Reclamation programs in the Priority I areas were assumed

to proceed as presently scheduled, with completion in the

following base years:

a. Sidbnai-Havoli 1970

b. Mailsi: 1971
c, Panjnad: 1970

d. Bahawal: 1970

9. It was assumed that eight years would be required to

move from present irrigation intensity levels to 150

percent intensity, starting with the year additional

water from t-he reclamation program in each area becomes

available.

10. Yields are assumed to increase, on the average, at the

rates iven in the yield projection curve in the TIrza
1/
Appraisal Report. These rates of increase are assumed

to comence after the "base year" of reclamation in each

Priority I area.

11. During the reclamation periods, yields on the average

were assumed to increase to the followin- levels:

a. Sidhnai-Haveli: 115 percent of adjusted
present yields in base year 1970,

b. Mailsi: 110 percent of adjusted present
yields in base year 1971.

c. Panjnad and Bahawal: 110 percent of adjusted
present yields in base year 1970.

i Harza Engineerin7, Company International, Supporting Studies,
An A PDraisal of Resources and Po'ential Develop7ient; A Pro-
gram for Water and Power Development in WTest Pakistan,
1963-1975, Lahore, West Pakistan, September 1963.










12o Yields of individual crops were assueric to increase at

varying rates (as specified in the text)./ 1 /

13. Prices of inputs an- output were held constant through-

out the project life period.

14, Costs of crop production were assumed to increase in

proportion to the amount of variable cost items necessary

to attain the projected yields.

15. For benefit calculation purposes, the following iters of

the farn production cost were excluded (in consideration

of the World Bank Guidelines). 2/

a. Family Labor.

b. Rent and/or interest on land.
c, IWater rates for Tarbela and new tubewell water.
(Present water charges, however, were included).

16. The total government subsidy on plant protection and

the 50 percent subsidy on fertilizer were included in

the cost of production calculations.

17i Costs of associated developments in the project areas,
such as an improved road network, the tubewell program

and an expanded extension effort have not been accounted

for in the net agricultural benefit calculations. These

must be considered, however, in the determination of the

benefit/cost ratio for irritation as a project purpose.

1/ Menorandu-i of the LIP. Consultants to the World Pank
Consultants in regard to a-ricultural evaluations of the
Former Sind, August 1964.
2/ Harza Enginoering Conpany International, A Projection of
Food Requiroeents and Production for 1905, 'lest Pakistan,
Chica.go Illinois, Septeiber 1964.
3J World Bank, Memorandun to the Consultants-Methods and
Economic Guidelines, June 9, 1964.







- 5 -


18. Not a,-ricu!turnl benefits wore calculated on t.e basis

of a constant acroa-e aftor full dovolop-ent with Tar-

bela wat er is ac- ioved. (Loss of storage capacity is

assured to be replaced by other neans).

19. IHot a.ricult:'ural benefits, for both the 'ith and With-

out Tarbola conditions, are discounted to the "present

worth" level in 1973 (the ti-e Tarbela water becomes

available).

20. T'e effect of private tubewell installation on crop

production levels wrs not taken into account.

21. Secondary benefits are not evaluated.

22. Assu-mptions relatin to specific calculations are

specified in the text.

Present Econoric Situation


The 1963 darta ,iven in t'e basic reference were

adopted to reflect the present situation in the Priority I

areas. Those data provided tho point of departure for evalu-

ating the oxpect:;d rates of increase during the pro-Tarbela

period. Estir.ated 1963 yield levels were based on reported

data for the 1950-1963 period. They were adjusted to take

into account trend line significance and underestimation

inherent in published data. Price data wore also adjusted

for tr,.nd, line si.nificanco where appropriate. Table 1 pro-

vides estimates of present yields, .ross returns and not

returns -or acre, by rajor crop catoories for the Priority

I areas.




mm----- - -- -
Table 1: Fresent Yields, rross Returns, Costs of Production and Net Returns Per Acre in tho
Tarbela Priority 1 Areas.


[ Present Yields
Study Areas and I Per Acre


Major Crops


1 ----- _f -
$Reported (Adjusted
Mds. Nds.


t Price (Gross s Produc- j
1 Per iReturns b/ tion Per I Net Return
I Maund IPer Acre I Acre c/ I Per Acre
Rs. Rs. Rs. Rs.


SID NA I- TAVELI
hea t
Cotton (American)
Rice
Maize
Fodder
S-F-V dj
All others e/
NlA I 15 1
b1 ea t
Cotton (American)
Rice
Maize
Fodder
S-F-V d/
All others e/
PANJNAm AND B'"A"AL
Vhea t
Cotton (American)
Rice
Maize
Fodder
S-F-V d/
All others e/


12.7
8.7
10.0
9.5
275.0 0f
N.A.
N.A.

12.7
3.7
10.0
9.5
275.0 f/
N.A.
N.A.

9.3
6.6
11.5
8.0
275.0 f
N.A.
N.A.


13.6
9.1
10.0
10.0
289.0 f/
N.A.
N.A.

13.6
9.1
10.0
10.0
209.0 f/
N.A.


10.0
6.9
11.5
8.4
2C9.0 f/
IN.A.
1I.A.


aj Theat yields increased 7 percent all other cateTories except rice, 5 percent;
'heat and cotton also adjusted for trend line significance.
b/ Price per maund. x adjusted yields per acre.
c/ Excludes costs of family labor, rent and/or interest on land.
d/ Sugarcane, fruits, ve--etables.
e/ Includes pulses, oil seeds and "--inor crops.
f / .ei:,t of -ren fodder.
SValue of wheat straw is not included.
N.A, Not applicable because of combined crops.


11.1
32.0
20.5
12.5
1.0
N.A.
N.A.

11.1
32.0
20.5
12.5
1.0
N.A.
N. A.

12.0
20.0
19.0
11.1
1.0
N.A.
N.A.


151 /
291
205
125
289
603
15 C

151 S/
291
205
125
289
651
158

120 g/
193 -
219
93
2?9
630
15 E


100
70
100
60
70
320
L49

100
70
100
60
70
316
49

70
59
115
55
70
312
49


51
221
105
65
219
363
109

51
221
105
65
219
335
109


50
134
ic4
3C
219
318
109


_~I







- 7 -


Yiold Projactions for Individual Crop Cate-ories

The yield projection curve ,iven in the larza

Appraisal Report iwas considered to he a reasonable rate of

increase for all crops. It was emphasized in the basic

reference, however, that projections for individual crops

would have to bo developed before detailed net benefit

calculations could be :ae. These wero subsequently deve-

loped, taking into account the projections proposed by the

LI.P. Consultants for the Upper Sind area. I1

"Rough" averages of yields for major crops riven in

the Sind data wero calculated for the 1980 and "'ultimate"'

periods. Deviations fro:: t-e average for individual crops

were determined. Those deviations were tVhen applied to the

Harza averar'e curve at the 1900 and 2020 points. Evaluation

of the L.I.F. and Harza data su-oested the following rates

of yield increases for individual crop categories in the
Priority I areas:

a. The surarcane-fruit-ve.-etables category was

projected at the sar ei rate as the Harza average curve.

b. Rice was also projected at the ':arza average
rate because the lower rate applicable for the Sind was not

considered applicable in the Priority I areas.
co Maize was projected at the rate indicated by
the millot curve in the L.I.P. data.

1j Menorandu- of the L.I.P. Consultants to the 'Torld Bark
Consultants. op cit.
2/ See also Thblos XX and XXXI in the Tarza report, A Proje0-
tion o)f Food opquiroe: nts and Production for 1905, e s t
Pakistan, op cit.







- 8 -


d. 'iiot and cotton wore projected at about the

sa-ie rats of deviation fro-i the avera-eo as the rates inherent

in the L.I.P. data.

e. T-'e fodder and "Other" categories were increased

at less than the Harza average, on the basis of fodder and oil

seed rates, respectively, in the L.I.F. data.

It is recognized that application of the overall

relationships in the Sind data to the Priority I areas assumes

that tho sa-'.o deviations frori tV'e average will apply. '.aile

this assumption is open to sono question, it nonetheless isa

better assumption than one stating that all crop yields will
increase at the sa'-e rate. The deviations from the average

are shown in Table 2. Yield projections for -ajor crop cate-

gories are shown in Table. 3 and Figure 1.
W'ith utilization of the projected percentage

increases, a basic data table was constructed that shows

projected yields and ross returns per acre of individual

crop categories for each year of the Tarbela Project life

(See Appendix Table I). The sa:-e rate of yield increases
was assumed for both the -7ith and Without Tarbola situations.


SGeo also Tables XX and XXXI in the Harza report, A Projec-
tion of Food Require'-onts and Production for 19"5, West
Pakistan op cit.

2/ Ibid. Pa '7e 26 states in part: "It is rot expected that
crop yield increases will be the snoe for all crops.
Certain crons such as cotton will be expected to exceed
the (average) rate of increase durin- t' e early years
after roclarmation while fruits and su.ar, pres-etly more
adequa toly irri-,Pat.', will increase at a slow rate towards
the ultima'eo notantial. Each crop is considered sepa-
rately in arriving at the projected rate of increase to
its ultinat~- e ryid Dotontial".'







Table 2:


Percentage Deviations front Projections of Average
Crop Yields, by Major Crop Categories.


--.....-^....-.T- ^--- Tsi- -}-- -y .....--P ......--.l..-.......-...--
Ti,-e Periods I I I I (cane I I IOil jAll a/ Average
and Plhqea tCottoniMillet jMaize JFruit-IFodder RiceISeeds Others i Percent
Study Areas I I I IVeR. i I I I I of Base

1980

UPPER SIND b/ -9 +34 +9 d/ -6 e/ -3 -25 -41 d/ 191


SIDH-IHAV &
PAMJ-3BAH.


MAILSI

ULTIMATE c/

UPPER SINID b/
SIDH-HAV &
PA1-TJ- BA .


MAILSI


-27

-27

-26


-9 +34 TJ.A.


+32



*75

+69

+68


N.A.


+20


+9 0

+8 0


d/ +7 c/


N.A. -20 0

N.A. -20 0


-36


0 N.A, -36

0o .A. -34


N.A. -77


-71

-70


-75


0 H.A. -


0 N.Ao -70


276

261


d/ 300

.71 486


4081


All other category incluCes pulses, oil seers and minor crops,
LoIo.P Consultants data provided iin Au-ust 1964 'i-emoranum~n to worldd -Bankc
Unspecified in L.I.P. data, applied to 2020 in T-arza data.
No data available.
Sugarcane only in t'-e L.IP.* data.


Consultants.


- --------- --- --- --------------


----W-LI~WIU-Y~-- ~ -I-U-L




M mmm -I m m -M- mmm -


Table 3:


Projected Yield Increases as a Percent of
Base Period, by Major Crop Categories.


-T 9 Sugar- t
Study Areas I I I I I cane I I All I
and I T1heat I Cotton I Millet I iaize i Fruit- I Fodder I Other I Average
Time Periods I I I I Veg. I I


UPPER SIND aJ
1980
Ultimate

SIDH-HAV &
PAkIJ-BA T
1975
1980
1985
2020

MA ILSI
1975
1980
1985
2020


182
273


192
267
302
459


167
252
295
455


225
375


225
310
345
555


199
293
336
549


200
320


207
285
320
506


181
269
313
501


185 c
307 7c


201
276
311
486


175
261
304
48tr


188
188


175
240
275
415


149
227
268
411


175
240
275
415


149
227
268
411


191
300


201
276
311
486


175
261
304
4CI


L/L.I.o. Consultants data provided in August 1964 memorandum
b/No available data.
c/Sugarcane only in the L.I1.. data.
d/Included in the All Other category.


to 'Yorld Bank Consultants.


- I ~I I I -- .- -~Y -~ I





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- 12 -


Cost of Production Projections


Cost of production curves were developed for

the seven rajor crop categories included in t:'-o assumed

future cropping patterns. Cost items were li-ited to

those specified in the 'Uorld Bank guideliness. Total costs

of )lant protection and fertilizers were included. Available

cost of r-roduction data for specified yield levels of indivi-
_/
dual crops were evaluated. Cost of production curves were

subsequently developed to cover yield levels fro- the present

to those assumed for t,"e year 2023. T'ese are shown in

Appendix Figures I through VII.

The cost of ?roc~uction for projected levels

of out ut iore estimated as follows: The cost of each

input iteai included was expressed as a ,percentage of the

present 'Gross Crop Value" for each -iajor crop category.

Dur-in. the first 5-year period, v*:en t'e crop yields are

assumed to more or less double, tle cost of each- item was

increased at the yield increase rate for each crop. From

then onitard, the cost of seed, plant protection, land

preparation (bullock and implements) and ,reen manure, if

ap liablel, were increased at the rate of 1 percent per

annum. This nwas necessary to account for the effect of

better quality of seed, healthier bulloci-s and improved

i,--le"?nts in future ynrs. T'he cost of harvestin-,

threshing and winnowing were increased at the same rate at


SSee Tables 31 throu:>, 37 in t'-e basic reference.







- 13 -


which yields increased. 1Zater rate charges were held

constant. Cost of fertilizer will increase at a faster

rate than crop yields during the project evaluation period.

The following rate for fertilizer, as a percentage of yield

increases, was assumed:

1973-1985 : 100oo

1986-1995 : 150

1996-2005 s 200

2006-2023 : 250

A woeihted cost of production curve was developed

for the sugarcane-fruit-ve.e tables category. For the all

ot'-er category, a projection of cost of oil seed production

was adopted.

Future Cropping Patterns

Iet a-ricultural benefits were based on the assumed
1/
future croppin- patterns. Different cropping patterns were

assumed for t'e Uith and ITithout Tarbela situations (Table ).

It -as asurn.c further, that a transition front present crop-

pi!n patterns to those shown in Table 4 would be achieved

prior to the availability of Tarbela water. This cane is

expected in response to scheduled reclamation programs (and

subsequent increases in water supplies) as explained in the

following section.



1/ Feasible cro- inj patterns at 150'5 irrigation intensity
are 7iven in Table 39 of the basic reference.







- 14 -


Table 4 :


Future 'Cropping Patterns, Irrigation Inten-
sities and Harvesting Intensities in the
Priority I Areas, With and Without Tarbela.


Seasons Percent of C.C.A.
and ,Haveli- Mailsi Panjnad Bahawal
Crops Sidhnai I ,
P"With 'Without; With NWithout! With Without With 'Without
Kharif Season
Fruit 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
Vegetables 5 2 3 1 3 1 3 2
Sugarcane 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
Cotton 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
Rice 5 3 5 1 5 2 5 3
Maize 10 10 10 3 10 7 10 10
Fodder 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
Others a/ 2 2 2 -

Irrigation 60 55 60 45 60 50 60 55
Intensity
Rabi Season
Fruits 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
Vegetables 10 3 3 1 3 2 3 2
Sugarcane 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
Wheat 52 38 50 25 50 30 50 40
Fodder 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
Others a/ 10 8 19 9 19 8 19 10
Irrigation 90 67 90 53 90 58 90 70
Intensity
Overall Intensities
Irrigation150 122 150 98 150 108 150 125
Harvestingl40 112 140 88 140 98 140 115
a/ Includes jowar, pulses, oil seeds and minor crops.








- 15 -


Pre-Tarbola Reclanation Dovelopeont


Net agricultural benefits are necessarily based on

assumed crop harvesting intensities whereas calculations of

irrigation water requirements are based on irrigation inten-

sities. Scheduled reclamation programs in the Priority I

areas will significantly increase water supplies with resul-

ting increases in irrigation and harvesting intensities prior

to the tine Tarbela water becomes available. Yields will also

increase as a response to increased water supplies because it

will reduce the risk of utilizing hi.h cost inputs.

If the reclamation tubewells are used to capacity,

the additional water fro" over punpin" will be utilized

for irri nation. High intensities can t'us be attained early

in the Tarbela project life, It has been assumed that in

the With Tarbela situation, irri-ation and harvesting inten-

sities of 150 and 1O 0 percent, respectively, will be reached

in the Priority I areas in eight years, i.e. by 1977 (Figures

2 through 5). Lower intensities would be achieved in the

Without Tarbela situation (Shown also in Figures 2 through 5).

Acreages for Wlith and Wfithout Tarbela Situations

Projected harvested acreases for the ?Jith and

Without Tarbela situations are given in Table 5 and in

Figures 2 through 5. For the tfith Tarbela situation, the

upper harvesting intensity curve applies (i.e. I40 percent

intensity in all cases). In the withoutt Tarbela case,





% 150 I C


Temporary
Overpumping-


/
ITheoretical
f Irrigation Intensity
/ under optimum water use
I
I




Haveli Reclamation
Sidhnai Reclamation


(with Tarbela)


(without Torbeioa

M-Har vesting Intensity


,Start of
, Direct Tarbela Benefits


72 73 74 75 76 .


77 1978


Projected Harvesting Intensities
Acres of with Tarbela without Tarbelo Tarbela Credit
Year C. C. A.
(1,000) % Intensity Acres (1,000) % Intensity Acres (1,000) Acres (1,000)
1966 1,010 107 1,080-7 107 1,0807
1967 107 1,080-7 107 1,0807 -
1968 108 1,090-8 108 1,090-8
1969 109 1,100-9 109 1,1009 -
1970 112 131-2 110 1,111.0 (20-2)
1971 116 1,171-6 112 1,131-2 (40-4)*
1972 126 1,272-6 (141-4 )
1973 134 1,353-4 (222-2)*
1974 139 1,403-9 272-2
1975 140 414-0 282-8
1976
1977
1978

2023 1,010 140 1, 414-0 112 1,131-2 282-8

t Secondary Benefits due to overpumping


NOTE:
IRRIGATION AND CROP HARVESTING INTENSITIES,
WITH AND WITHOUT TARBELA, FOR 1,010,000 C. C. A.
IN SIDHNAI -HAVELI PROJECT AREAS.


M. H. A.


WEST PAKISTAN
WATER AND POWER DEVELOPMENT AUTHORITY)
SIDHNAI HAVELI

IRRIGATION & CROP

HARVESTING INTENSITIES
HARZA ENGINEERING CO. INTERNATIONAL\


L A MORE


DATE DWvG NO.
rr, 6 I4


1001.


91 63 64 65 66 67 68 6 !






















Temporary
Over pumping---


/f Theoretical
SIrrigation Intens
under optimum we


1963. 64 65 66 67 Reclamation 72 73


O 50
Io.


140.


130.


- /rrigation Intensity



( without Tarbelo)
S Harvesting Intensity


ter use


CStart of
K Direct


Torbe/a Benefits


1 74 .75 76 77 78 .


Projected Harvesting Intensities
Acres of with Torbelo without Tarbelo Tarbelo Credit
Year C. C. A. Acres(1,000)
(1,000) %/ Intensity Acres (1,000) % Intensity Acres (1,000) Acres (
1966 610 75 455-7 75 455-7
1967 75 455-7 75 455-7
1968 75 457.5 75 457-4
1969 77 469-7 77 469-7
1970 81 494 1 80 488-0 (6- )
1971 87 530-7 81 494-1 (36-6)0
1972 96 585-6 82 500-2 (85-4)"
1973 106 646-6 86 524-6 (122 -0)*
1974 120 732-0 88 536-8 195*2
1975 132 805-2 268-4
1976 138 841-8 305.0
1977 140 854.0 317-21

1 i i I
2023 610 140 854-0 88 536-8 317-t

*'"Secondary Benefits due to overpumpinc


NOTE:
IRRIGATION AND CROP HARVESTING INTENSITIES,
WITH AND WITHOUT TARBELA, FOR 610,000 C. C.A.
IN MAILSI PROJECT AREA.


WEST PAKISTAN
WATER AND POWER DEVELOPMENT AUTHORITY
MAILSI

IRRIGATION & CROP

HARVESTING INTENSITIES
HARZA ENGINEERING CO. INTERNATIONAL


L AHORE Sep, 64


DWG. NO.


( with Tarbela)


FIG. 3


uI 1 A




FIG. 4


o/
150


140


130


120


80
/ r Theoretical
Irrigation Intensity
70/ under optimum water use


/
65 66 Reclamation.
65 66 I


71 72 .73


irrigationn Intensity


(with Torbela )

,Horvesting Intensity


(without Torbelo)


\.*Horvesting Intensity


Start of
SDirect Torbela Benefits


74 75 76


77 78


Projected Harvestinc Intensities
Acres of with Torbelo without Tarbela Tarbela Credit
Year C. C.A.
intensity Acres (1,000) % Intensiy crs y Acres (1,000) Acres (1,000)

1966 892 82 731-4 82 731-4
1967 82 731-4 82 731-4
1968 82 731-4 82 731-4
1969 83 740-4 83 740.4
1970 85 758-2 85 758-2
1971 94 838-5 88 785-2 (53-5 )
1972 110 981-2 92 820-6 (160-6)*
1973 124 1,106-1 96 856-3 (249- 8 )
1974 135 1,204-2 98 874-2 330-0
1975 139 1,239-9 3657
1976 140 1,248-8 374-6
1977
4 4 1 J r
2023 892 140 1,248 8 98 8742 374*6

Secondary Benefits due to overpumping


N OTE
IRRIGATION AND CROP HARVESTING INTENSITIES,
WITH AND WITHOUT TARBELA, FOR 892,000 C. C. A.
IN THE PANJNAD PROJECT AREA.


WEST PAKISTAN
WATER AND POWER DEVELOPMENT AUTHORITY
PANJNAD

IRRIGATION a CROP
HARVESTING INTENSITIES
HARZA ENGINEERING CO. INTERNATIONAL


I LAHORE I"DATE DWG. NO.
M. H A.


Temporary
Overpumping-


100


1963 64




_IF 1f%;5,


Temporary
Overpumping .r

















7 Theoretical
Irrigation Intensity
r under optimum water use

Iomation |


69 70 71 72 73


J'IrriAdidfiv latmensitv


- L -


(with Torbe/o)


.Harvesting Intens /y



-Irrigotion Intensity


(without Torbelo)

Harvesting Intensity


















rStor/ of
Direct Tarbelo Benefits


74 75


76 77 78


Projected Harvesting Intensities
Acres of with Torbela without Tarbela Tarbela Credit
Year C. C. A
(1,000) %/ Intensity Acres (1,000) % Intensity Acres (1,000) Acres (1,000)

1966 383 78 298-7 78 2987 -
1967 78 298-7 78 2987 -
1968 78 298-7 78 298-7 -
1969 84 321-7 84 3217 -
1970 96 3677 96 367-7
1971 112 429-0 104 398-3 307)
1972 124 474.9 112 429-0 (45-9)*
1973 132 505-6 114 436-6 (69-0)
1974 137 524- 7 11 5 4405 84-2
1975 139 532-4 919
1976 140 53-.2 95-7
197 7


2023 383 140 536-2 115 440-5 95.7
Secondary Benefits due to overpumping


NOTE
IRRIGATION AND CROP HARVESTING INTENSITIES,
WITH AND WITHOUTTARBELA, FOR 383,000 C. C. A.
IN BAHAWAL PROJECT AREA.


I 6
M. H. A.


WEST PAKISTAN
WATER AND POWER DEVELOPMENT AUTHORITY
BAHAWAL

IRRIGATION 8 CROP
HARVESTING INTENSITIES

HARZA ENGINEERING CO. INTERNATIONAL


LAHORE DATE


DWG. NO.


1963


64 65 66 67 68


I
-ILI


Y




m m mI mmmm m mm m m



20 -
Table 5: Projection of Crop Acreage Harvested in the Priority
I Areas, With and Without Tarbela, 1974 2023.



Sidhnai-Haveli Mailsi Panjnad Bahawal I Total Priority
SWith With- Tar- With Wit Tar-ith With- Tar With With- Tar- With With- Tar-
Year Tar- out bela Tar- out bela Tar- out bela Tar- out bela Tar-- out Ibela
bela Tar- Cre- bela Tar-- Cre- bela Tar- Cre- bela Tar- Cre- bela Tar- Cre-
bela dit bela dit bela dit b__ela dit bela dit


-1,000 Acres- -

4 4 0 ;213,.;2-i27 732,0

1,414,0 282.8 805.22


1,131.2 282,8 854.0


1,000 Acres-


195 2

268.4

305 0


317.2


536,8 317,2


,-1,000 Acres-


1~20402 874,2

1,23,.2

1,248.8




1,248.8 874.2


330.0

365.7

374.6




374.6


-1,000 Acres-


524.7

532.4

536.




536 .2


440 ,5


440.5


84.2

91,

95.7




95,7
65',7


-1,000 Acres-


3,864.8

3,991 ,5

4,0430.

4,053.0



4,053,0


2, 82.7 882.1

1,008.8

1, 058.1

1,0 0.3


2,982.7 1,07).3


536.8



-


1975

1976

1977


2023
2023 1


854.03


8418
8 140


1,414.0






- 21 -


acreage harvested is limited by the amount of combined

surface and ground water rechar -e supply that can be rlain-

tained, (i.e. the lower harvesting intensity line on each

:raph). Jote that in the '-ith Tarbela situation, additional

acreage above the level that can be :-aintained in the 'With-

out situation can be developed by to-eporary overpunping

prior to the availability of Tarbola water. This incre-

nent could be credited directly as a benefit to the tube-

well pro-ra'-. It is better perT.ans to credit it as a

secondary benefit to Tarbela. Without the Tarbela project

it would not be practicable to raise the harvesting inten-

sity for such a brief opriod above that level sustainable

wtith the combined surface supplies and ground water re-

cha r e.

Net Agricultural Benefits ?er Acre

Appendix Tables II and III provide calculations

of net agricultural benefits rer acre for With and Without

Tarbela, respectively, for each year of project life. Gross

return figures per acre for each crop were carried over from

Appendix Table I. Costs of production were determined

(Appendix Figures I through VII) and subtracted from the

gross returns for each crop. The resulting net returns

per acre for each cron were weighted by the percentage dis-

tribution of each crop to obtain an average net return per

acre. The assigned weights are given in Table 6.






- 22 -


Table 6: Percentage Distribution of Crops
Grown per Crop Acre, Priority I
Areas, With and Without Tarbela.


Study Areas Percentage Distribution
and
Maor Crops With Tarbela Without Tarbela
M ajor Crops
Sidhnai-Haveli
Wheat 37.1 33.9
Cotton 14.3 17.9
Rice 3.6 2.7
Maize 7.1 8.9
Fodder 12.8 16.0
S-F-V a/ 17.9 13.5
Others 7.2 7.1
Totals 100.0 100.0
Mailsi
Wheat 35.7 28.5
Cotton 14.3 22.7
Rice 3.6 1.1
Maize 7.1 3.4
Fodder 12.9 20.4
S-F-V a/ 11.4 13.7
Others 15.0 10.2
Totals 100.0 100.0
Panjnad
Wheat 35.7 30.6
Cotton 14.3 20.4
Rice 3.6 2.0
Maize 7.1 7.1
Fodder 12.9 18.4
S-F-V a/ 11.4 13.3
Others 15.0 8.2
Totals 100.0 100.0
Bahawal
Wheat 37.1 34.8
Cotton 14.3 17.4
Rice 3.6 2.6
Maize 7.1 8.7
Fodder 12.8 15.7
S-F-V a/ 17.9 12.1
Others 7.2 8.7
Totals 100.0 100.0


g/ Sugarcane-Fruit-Vegetables.







- 23 -


Total Not Agricultural Benefits

Net Benefits 1jiitb Tarbela

The avera ;e not agricultural benefits per acre

given in Appendix Table II are applied to the total acreage

that would be harvested under the Iith Tarbela situation.

As shown in Fi:ures 2 through 5, the net return per acre

figure is applied to an increasing acreage until a full

crop harvesting intensity of 140 percent is reached in 1977. It

is applied to a constant acreage figure thereafter for the

remaining project life. These calculations are shown in

Appendix Table IV.

Net Benefits Without Tarbela

The same approach is used in the Without Tarbela

situation for an intensity that can be reached with present

surface water in: uts plus pumpnin- of the reclar.e. The

total acrea-se is assumed to be a constant figure throughout

the project life period in each Priority I area. There is

a variation, however, from one Priority I area to another

(Fig:ures 2 throu.2h 5). These calculations are shown in

Appendix Table V,

Net Benefits Attributable to Tarbela

Tarbela net benefits are represented by t'-e

difference in net benefits betwo:mn the 7Tith and Without

Tarbela situations. These calculations are sunnarized in

Table 7 (See also Table VI for year by year calculations

for each Priority I area). The net ret,rns in each project

year are discounted to presentt worth" at the be.innin.








Table 7: Summary of Net Agricultural Benefits, Tarbela Priority I Areas.


With Tarbela


Year


1974
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025


Ay rag
AzMial


Acres
Harvested
(1,000)


5,864.8
3,991.5
4,053.0












4,053.0


4,047.7


Without Tarbela


Net Acres
Benefits Harvested
(Ro.106) (1,000)


1,041.0
1,256.3
1,899.0
2,187.0
2,363.1
2,528.9
2,688.0
2,844.3
2,999.3
3,162.2
3,319.7
3,416.9


2,567.7


2,982.7














2,982.7


2,982.7


Net
Benefits
(Rs.10 I) 11


871.7
1,022.3
1,516.0
1,737.8
1,874.0
2,004.4
2,151.3
2,256.9
2,383.7
2,514.8
2,643.3
2,721.1


2,041.9


Tarbela Credit


Acres
Harvested
(1,000)


882.1
1,008.8
1,070.3












1,0 0.3


1,065.0


Net
Benefits
(R. 106)


169.3
234.0
383.0
449.2
489.1
524.5
556.7
587.4
615.6
647.4
676.4
695.8


528.8


,i et value rer
Acre Foot 1/
Rupees Dollars


60.46
83.57
136.79
160.43
174.68
187.32
198.82
209.79
219.86
231.21
241.57
248.50


187.77


12.70
17.57
28.74
33.70
36.70
39.35
41.77
44.07
46.19
48.57
50.75
52.21


39.44


1/ Based on an estimated Tarbela storage requirement of
2.8 million acre-feet for use in the Priority I Areas.

Note: Refer to Appendix Tabls VI and VII for data on intervening years.


I


----


----- ----- --


I,


-


- -- -I









- 25 -


of the Tarbela project life (1973) in accordance with the

procedure required for evaluating water resource develop-
1/
ment projects in the United Statesr The World Bank Economic

Guidelines require calculations at interest rates of 2, 4,

6, 8, 10 and 12 percent. Calculations for net Tarbela

benefits in this report, however, are limited to 4 per-

cent. These are summarized in Table 8 (See also Appendix

Table VII).

It is assumed that a full irrigation intensity of

150 percent and a harvesting intensity of 140 percent will

be reached in all Priority I areas by 1977, the fourth year

of project benefits. A Tarbela storage of 2.8 million acre-

feet, including evaporation and conveyance losses, will be
2/
required to irrigate the net acreage credited to Tarbela~-

This amounts to an average of 2.54 acre-feet of storage per

acre of net cropland harvested. As shown in Table VII, the

average value per acre-foot of Tarbela water in Priority I

areas starts at $ 12.70 in the first year of project bene-

fits. It rises to $ 22.91 in 1977,when a maximum of 140 per-

cent crop harvesting intensity is attained,and reaches$5221

1/ United States Senate, Policies, Standards, and Procedures
in the Formulation, Evaluation, and Review of Plans for
Use and Development of Water and Related Land Resources,
Senate Document No. 97, Washington, D.C., May 1962.
2/ Water requirement calculations provided by Mr. Irving
Lorber, Planning Engineer, Harza Engineering Company
International, on 3rd October, 1964.







- 26 -


Table 8 :


Present Worth of Net Agricultural Benefits
Credited to Tarbela in the Priority I Areas


Net Value Per iPresent U'orth(1975)
Year Acre Foot 1/ '' 4 Percent
Rupees e Dollars Dollars

1974 60.46 12.70 12.21

1975 85.57 17.57 16.24
1980 156.79 28.74 21.84

1985 160.43 53.70 21.05
1990 174.68 36.70 18,84

1995 187.32 39.35 16.61
2000 198.82 41.77 14.49

2005 209.79 44.07 12.56

2010 219.86 46.19 10.82

2015 231.21 48.57 9.35
2020 241.57 50.75 8.03

2023 248.50 52.21 7.55

Average Rs. 187.77 $ 39.44 $ 14.79
Annual

1/ Based on an estimated Tarbela storage requirement
of 2,8 million acre-feet for use in the Priority
I ,,.eas.
Note : Refer to Appendix Table VII for data on
intervening years.







- 27 -


in 2023, the last year of project life for benefit evalu-

ation purposes. The average annual value is $ 39.44 which

has a present worth of $ 14.79 at 4 percent interest,
irea Differences in Net Returns Per icre Foot of Storage

There is a significant variation among the indi-

vidual Priority I Areas in the return per acre foot of

Tarbela storage (Table 9). In order of average annual

returns per acre foot, the areas rank as follows: 1)

Sidhnai-Haveli-Mailsi, $ 45,42; 2) Panjnad, $ 34.63;and

3) Bahawal, $ 22.86.

Variations in net income per acre foot result

from the unknown degree of interaction of several factors.

Among these are:

1) The use of a single set of yield projection

curves for all areas.

2) Differences in optimum return potentials for

various crops grown in the individual areas.

5) Trying price levels for individual crops

in the yariouo regions.

4) Differences in cropping patterns among the

areas, particularly in the Without Tarbela situations.

5) Varying water requirements per acre harvested,
primarily as a result of differences in conveyance losses

among the Priority I areas.

An assumed utilization of 2.8 million acre feet

of Tarbela storage in the combined Priority I areas will




1 m1 m m


Table 9: Iet A--ricut'ural Benefits Per ,cre Foot of Tarbela
i"ater in t"he Priority I Areas.


SyID1A.I-AV3LI- AILSI 1/ PAiTJITAD / 2 D L 2/
I Tarbela I Value Per I TarbelaT Value Per ITarbela I Value Fer
Yoar I Credit j Acre Foot I Credit I Acre Foot JCredit I Acre Foot
.10 Tupees ]ollar.s s*0 Rupees dollars .06 J Rupees Dollars
I iS510 010e *

1974 1 ;.3 66.4,t 13.96 47.3 57.6. 12.12 13.7 39.14 2.22
1975 153.0 94.36 19.02 63.1 7'.95 16.17 17.1 42.r6 10.26
1930 25S.9 15.03 33.37 96.6 117.Co 24.75 275 7'.57 16.51
1935 302.9 105.C3 39.04 113.9 137.90 29.I 32.4 92.57 19.45
1990 330.2 202,5C 42.56 123.7 15 ,.5 31.69 35.2 10 .57 21.13
1995 353.9 217.12 645.M1 133.2 12.4 34.13 37.4 106.06 22.5
2000 373.4 229.33. 4.13 143.1 17!.51 3.66 L0.2 11. 24.13
2035 393.3 2'!. .6o 50.76 151.3 124.51 3*.7. 42.3 120.06 25.39
2010 411.2 252.27 53.00 159.6 194.63 40.29 4. 12C.0 26.-9
2015 432.3 265.21 55.72 167.9 204.76 43.02 47.2 134.06 22.33
2020 451.9 277.24 5-.24 175.0 213.41 44.C3 49.5 141.43 29.71
2023 465.0 225.2 59.93 179.7 219.15 46.0 50.9 145.43 30.55

..r 52.4 2 1...2 45.42 13 363" 3l.1 6. 4C 22.36


rnilliiUC4 i


Tarbola stora of 1.63 :illion acre f-,:t for 600,00


acr-s of n~it cro o lr .n. harvosted.


2/ Tarbola stora--. roquirJ1.nt of .32 million acre feot for 374,6 0 acrms of n-t crop
land harvoste'.
3/ Tarbola storage require o-.n of .35 million acre f'-t for 95,000 across of net crop
land harvested.


P'ote: Acppendix Table VI. --ovic'es data on intervening years.


J


--


...._....,. .__.. .__..,.-_.~.







- 29 -


leave a considerable portion of the storage capacit- to be

used elsewhere. Althour'b this report is limited to the

Priority I areas, the data herein can be used as a guide in

attributing a value to the remaining storage-

The average value per acre-foot of water used in the

Priority I areas could be used as a general approximation

of the value of total Tarbela storage. A soriewihat more re-

fined approximation could be made by assigning the value

obtained in individual Priority I areas to additional areas

to be irrigated, on the basis of a judeieent of how the

respective areas compare. For example, if area "x"P is

judged to be similar to the Panjnad area, the Panjnad figure

of $ 34.63 could be applied. Likewise, the Bahawal figure

of $ 22,86 could be applied to area "y" if these two areas

are comparable. Tine permitting, it would be desirable of

course to carry out detailed evaluations for each of the

additional areas to be irrigated,





I


S- 30 -

I APPENDIX

I Figures

I Cost of Theat Production
I II Cost of Cotton Production
I III Cost of Rice Production

IV Cost of Maizo Production
I V Cost of Fodder Production

VI Cost of Sugarcane, Fruit and
3 Vegetables Production
VII Cost of Production Miscellaneous Crops
3 Tables 1/

I Projected Yields and Gross Returns per
I Acre of Individual Crops, Tarbela Priority
I Areas.
III Net Agricultural Benefits per Acro,
Priority I Areas, with Tarbela.
III Net Agricultural Benefits per Acre,
Priority I Areas, 7Tithout Tarbola.
IV Total Net Agricultural Benefits, Priority
3 I Areas, Tith Tarbela.

V Total Net Agricultural Benefits, Priority
3 I Areas, Without Tarbola.

VI Niet Ag.ricultural Benefits Credited to
Tarbela in Each Priority I Area.
VII Summary of Net Agricultural Benefits
Credited to Tarbela, All Priority I Areas,


I/ Tables I t'rougb VI appear in Volunre 2.


I



I




Appendix Fig .
481





450.







400.






350.







300.
ac





z

50

0


















100.
0 10













NOT E T WEST PAKISTAN
WATER AND POWER DEVELOPMENT AUTHORITY
PROJECTION OF COST OF WHEAT PRODUCTION,
TARBELA PRIORITY I AREAS
COST OF

WHEAT PRODUCTION

HARZA ENGINEERING CO. INTERNATIONAL

LAHORE DATE DWG NQ
Se 20064
i-

















Mds /Acre

50 I0 20 30 40 50 60 70

NOT E WEST PAKISTAN
WATER AND POWER DEVELOPMENT AUTHORITY
PROJECTION OF COST OF WHEAT PRODUCTION, TAR--ELA
TARBELA PRIORITY I AREAS TARBELA
COST OF

WHEAT PRODUCTION

HARZA ENGINEERING CO. INTERNATIONAL

LAH0RE DATE DWG NQ
M H.




Appendix Fig. I
S350
S340
S330





-300








250








S200






0
I-





0
S150








S100








-50








21D 30 40 50 60 70

WEST PAKISTAN
Mds./Acre WATER AND POWER DEVELOPMENT AUTHORITY

TARBELA
NOTE: COST OF
PROJECTION OF COST OF COTTON PRODUCTION COTTON PRODUCTION
TARBELA PRIORITY I AREAS
HARZA ENGINEERING CO INTERNATIONAL
AHOR DATE DWG. NO.
LAHORE pt.64




Appendix Fig, 1I



S-520


500






S 450






400






o 350

I Z


I-
o 300

30
f-



0L- 250
C-)





200






150





100 10 20 30 4o 59 6p q5
Mds. /Acre WEST PAKISTAN
Md. /Acre WATER AND POWER DEVELOPMENT AUTHORITY
TARBELA_
NOTE: COST OF
PROJECTION OF COST OF RICE PRODUCTION, RICE PRODUCTION
TARBELA PRIORITY I AREAS
HARZA ENGINEERING CO. INTERNATIONAL

ILAHORE SeDp 4 DWG. NO
M. H. A.




Appendix Fig. 1M.
II I I -[ I .I I


YIELD IN Mds./Acre


N OTE:

PROJECTED COST OF MAIZE PRODUCTION,
TARBELA PRIORITY I AREAS.


M. H.A.


WEST PAKISTAN
WATER AND POWER DEVELOPMENT AUTHORITY
TARBELA

COST OF
MAIZE PRODUCTION

HARZA ENGINEERING CO. INTERNATIONAL

LAHORE So ATE DWG. NO.
LAHORE Sept. 64 I








450
App. Fig.

I

1400L



* 350



I
300-



I


0
1-C
o
10200-












Green Fodder Mds./^cre
0 O
11-
I
I 150-



I '




I Green Fodder- Mds./Acre
o 400 6p080 8oo 100o 12o 1400
WEST PAKISTAN
WATER AND POWER DEVELOPMENT AUTHORITY
NOTE: TARBELA
PROJECTED COST OF FODDER PRODUCTION,
TARBELA PRIORITY I AREAS COST OF
FODDER PRODUCTION
I HARZA ENGINEERING CO INTERNATIONAL
SLAHORE DATE DWG. NO.
Sept, 64
M. H.A.




Appenalx g .





S1500



1400







S1200







S1000



ui
0




I
0- 800


ICL



0 600
0






400
a-
U-









S200
I--
C,)




400






200









500 1000 1500 2000 2 00 3b00 3500 4000
Gross Crop Value in Rs/Acre


WEST PAKISTAN
NOTE WATER AND POWER DEVELOPMENT AUTHORITY
PROJECTION OF COST OF PRODUCTION, TAR
TARBELA
FOR SUGARCANE- FRUIT-VEGETABLES
IN TARBELA PRIORITY -I- AREAS COST OF
SUGARCANE, FRUIT VEGETABLES
PRODUCTION

HARZA ENGINEERING CO. INTERNATIONAL


L O AT WG O


SetT 64 IDWG.NO.


LAH OR E
















I


I


1604


300 400 50
GROSS CROP VALUE Rs./Acre


0 600


NOTE:
COST OF CROP PRODUCTION, ALL OTHER
CATEGORY, TARBELA PRIORITY I AREAS
(Based on the Cost of oil seeds production)


Z 7' a.-


WEST PAKISTAN
WATER AND POWER DEVELOPMENT AUTHORITY
TARBELA

COST OF PRODUCTION
MISCELLANEOUS CROPS.
HARZA ENGINEERING CO. INTERNATIONAL
L A RE DATE 1QG. NO.
LAHORE Ant AD


Appendix Fig. ~1E


^^ -




M M M M M M M M M M


APPENDIX TABLE VII. Summary of Net Agricultural Benefits Credited to Tarbela,
All Priority I Areas.


With Tirbela
No. Net
of Agri.
Year Acres Bene-
fits
} (1,000) p, 10
1974 3,864.8 1,041.0
1975 5,991.5 1,256.3
1976 4,040.8 1,401.2
1977 4,053.0 1,527.4
1978 1,6f8.8
1979 1,781.0
1980 1,899.0
1981 1,966.0
1982 2,026.E
1983 2,082.6
1984 2,136.9
1985 2,187.0
1986 2,223.8
1987 2,259.6
1988 2,299.5
1989 2,326.4


Without Tarbel, Tarbela Credited
,No. Net 6No. Net 'Value fValue
of Agri. of Agri. Per Per
Acres Bene- Acres Bene- 'Acre,/ ~crel/
Sits fits :oot foot-'
(1,000) Rs. 106 (1,000) Rs. O10b upees 'Dollars

2,982.7 871.7 882.1 169.5 60.46 12.70
1,022.3 1008.8 234.0 83.57 17.57
1,125.9 1,058.1 275.3 98.32 20.66
1,222.01,070.3 305.4 109.07 22.91
1,318.7 330.1 117.89 24.77
1,424.6 556.4 127.28 26.74
1,516.0 383.0 136.79 28.74
1,567.8 398.2 142.21 29.88
1,614.6 412.0 147.14 30.91
1,658.3 42 .3 151.53 31.83
1,699.1 457.8 156.36 32.85
1,737.8 449.2 160.43 33.70
1,765.9 457.9 163.54 34.36
1,794.8 464.8 166.00 34.87
1,820.9 473.4 169.07 55.52
1,847.9 478.5 170.89 35.90


1/ Based on a
Priority I


Tarbela storage requirement of 2.8 million-acre-feet for use in
areas.


fre-
,sent
Worth
@ 4%
:DollarE
12.21
16.24
18.3E
19.58
20.36
21.13
21.84
21.83
21.72
21.50
21.34
21.05
20.64
20.14
19.72
19.17


I


- `-------~II- --





APPENDIX TABLE VII (Continued page 2) Summary of Net Agricultural Benefits Credited
to Tarbela, All Priority I Areas.


SWith Tarbela Without Tarbela Tarbela Credited
No. Net No. Net I No. Net Value Value Prey
Year of Agri. gri. fri. of Agri. Per Per sent
Acres Bene- Acres Bene-- Acres Bene- Acre Acre,/ Worth
fits fits fit Foot Foot-* @ 4%
(1,000) ,R. 106 (1,000) p. 10'6 (1,000) Rs.10 'Rupees Dpllars dollars
1990 405.0 2 .1 2982.7 1,8740 1,070. 489.1 174.68 6.70 18.84
199o 4,053.0 2,363.1 2,982.7 1,874,0 1,070.3 489.1 174.68 36.70 18.84


497.7 177.75
507.1 181.11
509.3 181.89
519.0 185.36
524.5 187.32
531.0 189.64
359.0 192.5(0
544.1 194.32
551.2 196.86
556.7 198.82
563.0 201.07
569.7 2r.3.46
575.0 ')5.36
5.1 208.25
5W7.4 209.79
594.4 212.29
600.0 214.29
606.8 216.71


37.34 18.43
38.05 18.06
38.21 17.44
38.94 17.09
39.35 16.61
39.84 16.16
40.44 15.78
40.82 15.31
41.36 14.92
41.77 14.49
42.24 14.09
42.76 13.71
43.14 13.50
43.75 12.97
44.07 12.56
44. 0 12.22
45.02 11.86
45.53 11.54


1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008


2,395.4
2,435.4
2,463.6
2,496.2
2,528.9
2,560.4
2,594.0
2,625.2
2,658.1
S2,688.0
2,721.8
2,751.2
2,781.4
2,814.9
2,844.3
2,874.9
2,909.4
2,939.5


1,897.7
1,928.3
1,954.3
1,977.2
2,004.4
2,029.4
2,055.0
2,081.1
2,106.9
2,131.3
2,158.8
2,181.5
2,206.4
2,231.8
2,256.9
2,280.5
2,309.4
2,332.7






APPENDIX TABLE VII (Continued page 3) Summary of Net Agricultural Benefits Credited
to Tarbela, All Priority I Areas.

With Tarbela Without Tarbela' Tarbela Credited
Net Net Net Value Value Pre-
Nof.fri. No.
Year N. Agri. *of A 'gri. Ag Per Per sent
Bene- Bene- of Bene- Acre Acre1 Worth
Acres f Acres its Acres, fits Foot Foot- @ 4%
s fits ,fits ,
(1, ) R 1,00 I
(1,000) Rs. 1,000) Rs. 106 1,000) Rs.l0 Rupees iDollars! Dollars


4,053.0


















4,053.0


2,968.3 2,982.7
2,999.3
3,032.5
3,060.4
3,092.8
3,127.2
3,162.2
3,191.2
3,227.9
3,254.0
3,290.5


2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023


2,982.7


2,357.2 1 i07Q.3
2,383.7
2,408.8
2,433.2
2,458.9
2,486.7
2,514.8
2,538.2
2,567.4
2,589.3
2,617.0


2,643.3
2,670.0
2,698.4
2,721.1


1,070.3


615.6
623.7
627.2
633.9
640.5
642.4
653.0
660.5
664.7
673.5
676.4
680.2
686.9
695.8


218.25
219.86
222.75
224.CO
226.39
228.75
231.21
233.21
235.89
257.39
240.54
241.57
242.93
245.32
248.50


45.85
46.19
46.80
47.06
47.56
48.06
48.57
48.99
49.56
49.87
50.53
50.75
51.04
51.54
52.21


11.17
10.82
10.54
10.19
9.91
9.63
9.35
9.07
8.83
8.54
8.32
8.03
7.77
7 54
7.35


Total. 202,388.1


128,382.0 149.135.0102,093.9


55,253.1 26,S1 9,388.58


1,972.39 739.27


3,319.7
3,350.2
3,385.3
3,416.9


uve. 4,047.7 2,567,7 2,982.7 2,041.9 1,065.0 525.8 187.77 39o44 14.79
Annual 4,07.




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