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Title: Florida's Citrus Canker Eradication Program (CCEP): summary of annual costs and benefits
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Title: Florida's Citrus Canker Eradication Program (CCEP): summary of annual costs and benefits
Physical Description: Book
Creator: Zansler, Marisa L.
Publisher: Department of Food and Resource Economics, Florida Cooperative Extension Service, Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, University of Florida
Publication Date: 2005
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Source Institution: Marston Science Library, George A. Smathers Libraries, University of Florida
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Table of Contents
    Title Page
        Page 1
    Processed oranges
        Page 2
    Specialty citrus fruit
        Page 3
    Page 3 Market implications
        Page 4
    Reference
        Page 5
    Tables
        Page 6
        Page 7
        Page 8
        Page 9
Full Text





UNIVERSITY OF

4 FLORIDA


IFAS EXTENSION


Florida's Citrus Canker Eradication Program (CCEP):

Summary of Annual Costs and Benefits1


Marisa L. Zansler, Thomas H. Spreen and Ronald P. Muraro2


Rapid expansion and integration of international
trade, increased tourism, and changes in methods of
production in recent decades have increased the
likelihood of the introduction of invasive species to
U.S. (United States) agriculture. Invasive species can
have adverse environmental and/or economic impacts
when introduced into a region. Economic impacts
include marketing, production, and trade implications.


One such invasive species imposing adverse
economic impacts to the Florida citrus industry is a
bacterial disease known as citrus canker (caused by
Xanthomonas axanopodis pv. citri). Citrus canker
causes lesions on the leaves, stems, and fruit of citrus
trees. The disease adversely affects the proportion of
fruit intended for the fresh market, serves to weaken
citrus trees, and leads to a reduction in yields and
higher costs of production.

The Citrus Canker Eradication Program (CCEP)
was implemented in the mid-1990s in an attempt to
establish guidelines for averting the spread of the


disease. Currently there is no biological or chemical
cure for citrus canker. All infected trees and citrus
trees within a radius of 1900 feet of an infected tree
must be eradicated (1900-foot rule). On-site
decontamination of grove workers, field equipment,
and packinghouses is also mandatory.

The current effort to eradicate citrus canker from
the industry, the CCEP, has been mired in
controversy associated with public opinion and legal
action. A benefit-cost analysis was conducted to
determine whether the CCEP is, indeed, a useful
policy tool in combating the economic ramifications
associated with citrus canker.

In the analysis presented in this paper, the
benefits of the CCEP are estimated through an
analysis of the Florida citrus industry under the
scenario that citrus canker has become established.
All other factors are held constant. The estimated net
change in revenue in the fresh and processed markets
and the additional costs of production were
measurements of the predicted benefits.


1. This is EDIS document FE532, a publication of the Department of Food and Resource Economics, Florida Cooperative Extension Service, Institute of Food
and Agricultural Sciences, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL. Published March 2005. Please visit the EDIS website at http://edis.ifas.ufl.edu.
Note: This is one of a series on the economic impacts of citrus canker on Florida's citrus industry. The series is available at:
http://edis.ifas.ufl.edu/TOPIC_CCEP.
2. Marisa L. Zansler, Economist, Policy Analysis and Development, USDA/APHIS, Washington, D.C.; Thomas H. Spreen, Professor and Chair, Department
of Food and Resource Economics, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL; and Ronald P. Muraro, Professor and Extension Economist, Department of Food
and Resource Economics, Citrus Research and Education Center, Lake Alfred, FL, Florida Cooperative Extension Service, Institute of Food and
Agricultural Sciences, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL.

The Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences (IFAS) is an Equal Employment Opportunity Affirmative Action Employer authorized to provide
research, educational information and other services only to individuals and institutions that function without regard to race, creed, color, religion,
age, disability, sex, sexual orientation, marital status, national origin, political opinions or affiliations. For information on obtaining other extension
publications, contact your county Cooperative Extension Service office. Florida Cooperative Extension Service / Institute of Food and Agricultural
Sciences / University of Florida / Larry R. Arrington, Interim Dean


FE532






Florida's Citrus Canker Eradication Program (CCEP): Summary of Annual Costs and Benefits 2


A model of the world orange juice market was
originally developed at the University of Florida in
1989 (McClain) and later modified in 2003 (Spreen,
Brewster, and Brown). This model is a spatial
equilibrium of the world orange juice market with
implicit supply. Approximately 96 percent of
Florida's orange crop is sent to the processing sector;
therefore, this model considers only the world
processed orange market when considering Florida's
orange crop (FASS, 2000). The predominant varieties
in the processed orange juice market are
early-midseason and Valencia varieties.
Early-midseason varieties include Hamlin and
Pineapple oranges.

A model of the Florida grapefruit market was
originally developed at the University of Florida in
1991 (Pana) and later modified in 1995 (Buzby and
Spreen). This model is a spatial equilibrium model of
the Florida grapefruit market, which assimilates
supply and demand in an optimization problem and
generates equilibrium prices and quantities (Buzby
and Spreen, 1995). The grapefruit market differs from
the world orange juice market in three fundamental
ways:

1. Florida is the dominant supplier of grapefruit in
the world, accounting for nearly 50 percent of
world production (FAO).

2. There is a greater degree of uncertainty as to
whether grapefruit are intended for the fresh or
processed markets

3. White seedless and red seedless grapefruit
varieties are treated separately in the fresh
market.

Processed Oranges

In Table 1, the net change in on-tree revenue for
the processed orange juice market is summarized
under the conditions associated with an industry with
endemic citrus canker. The processed orange juice
market is estimated to incur an overall on-tree
revenue loss of $20.4 million. Early-midseason
varieties are estimated to experience the greatest
revenue loss at $20.3 million, while Valencia oranges
are estimated to experience a net loss of $99,000.


In Table 2, the net change in F.O.B. revenue for
the processed orange juice market is summarized
when citrus canker is endemic. Under the conditions
associated with an industry with endemic citrus
canker, the processed orange juice market is
estimated to incur an overall F.O.B. revenue loss of
$35 million.

Table 3 illustrates the estimated net change in the
cost of producing processed oranges in an endemic
citrus canker industry. Under such a scenario, the
overall cost of producing oranges intended for the
processed market is estimated to increase by
approximately $14.4 million. The cost of producing
early-midseason varieties, which are highly
susceptible to citrus canker, is estimated to increase
by roughly $8.2 million. The cost of production of
Valencia oranges is estimated to increase by $6.2
million.

Fresh and Processed Grapefruit

Shown in Table 4 is the estimated net change in
on-tree revenue of fresh and processed red seedless
and white seedless grapefruit markets under
conditions associated with an industry when citrus
canker is introduced and becomes endemic. Fresh and
processed grapefruit growers are estimated to incur
an overall revenue net loss of $13.2 million. On-tree
revenue from fresh red seedless grapefruit sales is
estimated to experience a $6.8 million net gain in
revenue, while on-tree revenue from fresh white
seedless grapefruit sales is estimated to experience a
$1.1 million net loss. Revenue from processed red
seedless and white seedless grapefruit sales is
expected to decrease by $8.8 million and $10.2
million, respectively. Overall, red seedless grapefruit
on-tree revenue (fresh and processed) experiences a
$1.9 million net loss, and white seedless grapefruit
(fresh and processed) on-tree revenue experiences an
$11.3 million net loss.

In Table 5, the estimated net change in F.O.B.
revenue for the fresh red seedless and white seedless
grapefruit across world markets is summarized under
the conditions associated with an industry with
endemic citrus canker. Net F.O.B. revenues in the
grapefruit market are estimated to experience an
overall net loss of $71.5 million. The largest impact is






Florida's Citrus Canker Eradication Program (CCEP): Summary of Annual Costs and Benefits 3


in the fresh red seedless grapefruit market, with an
estimated net loss of $52.3 million, mostly due to the
loss of the European fresh market and a substantial
increase in the Japanese F.O.B. price. This loss
greatly offsets the gain in F.O.B. revenue estimated
for the U.S. and Canadian markets. The fresh white
seedless grapefruit market is estimated to experience
an overall net loss of $19.2 million. Again, the
combined impact of the loss of European market
access and an increase in the Japanese F.O.B. price
offset the gain in estimated F.O.B. revenues for the
U.S. and Canadian markets.

The estimated net change in production costs of
red seedless and white seedless grapefruit intended
directly for the processed market (field run) sent to
the packinghouse in an endemic citrus canker
industry is shown in Table 6. Production costs of field
run grapefruit varieties are expected to decline by
$1.4 million, assuming citrus canker becomes
established in Florida.

Production costs of the two grapefruit varieties
intended for the packinghouse increase substantially
by $46 million for red seedless grapefruit and $28
million for white seedless grapefruit. The overall cost
of producing grapefruit in Florida is estimated to
increase by approximately $72.7 million.

Specialty Citrus Fruit

Under the conditions associated with an industry
with endemic citrus canker, fresh and processed
specialty fruit processors experience on-tree revenue
gains in excess of $44.5 million due to a significant
increase in prices (Table 7). The fresh market for
specialty fruits is estimated to experience a $43.1
million (Table 7a) net gain in revenue. The processed
market for specialty fruit is expected to experience
net gain in revenue of $1.3 million (Table 7b).

The estimated net change in F.O.B. revenues for
specialty citrus fruit associated with endemic citrus
canker is reported in Table 8. Early and honey
tangerines are estimated to experience a net gain in
F.O.B. revenues by $8.4 million and $6.1 million,
respectively. Navel oranges are estimated to
experience a net loss of $3.6 million. The overall net
change in F.O.B. revenue for specialty citrus is a
$10.9 million gain.


In Table 9, the estimated net change in the
production costs of specialty fruit sent to the
packinghouse in an endemic citrus canker industry
are shown. Production costs for packinghouses of
early tangerines, honey tangerines, navel oranges,
temple oranges, and tangelos are estimated to
increase by $13 million, $17.8 million, $34.3 million,
$3.7 million, and $13.4 million, respectively. The
total change in F.O.B. costs of production for
specialty varieties increase by $82.2 million.

Economic Implications of Endemic
Citrus Canker in Florida

Production Implications

Endemic citrus canker is estimated to have
several economic impacts on the production of
Florida citrus. Based on scientific evidence from
previous studies, fruit drop is the primary factor in
anticipated yield losses (Koizumi, 1985; Graham and
Gottwald, 1991). Furthermore, the level of
susceptibility by variety translates into greater yield
losses for some citrus varieties over others (Gottwald,
et al, 1993; Graham, 2001). In addition to yield loss, a
producer will incur additional production costs
associated with an endemic citrus canker industry.
Additional costs include copper sprays and
windbreaks to mitigate the spread of the disease.
Establishment of windbreaks reduces tree density per
acre, thus contributing to yield losses.

In Florida, it is estimated that, with endemic
citrus canker, total citrus production will decline by
13.4 million boxes of early-midseason varieties, 4.9
million boxes of Valencia oranges, 3.2 million boxes
of red seedless grapefruit, and 2.1 million boxes of
white seedless grapefruit. Productions of specialty
varieties are expected to decline by 265,000 boxes of
honey tangerines, 435,000 boxes of early tangerines,
540,000 boxes of navel oranges, 195,000 boxes of
temple oranges, and 220,000 boxes of tangelos.

As a result, it is estimated that total production
loss to Florida under an endemic citrus canker
industry is equivalent to the loss of nearly 8 million
commercial citrus trees. If the CCEP is allowed to
proceed without further interruption, the number of
eradicated commercial trees is expected to be less






Florida's Citrus Canker Eradication Program (CCEP): Summary of Annual Costs and Benefits 4


than 3 million. The number of eradicated residential
door-yard trees is expected to be less than 1 million.

In Table 10, the estimated equivalent of the
number of trees lost in an endemic citrus canker
industry based on the estimated yield losses in boxes
is shown. The estimated acreage loss is determined
using the estimates of boxes per acre by variety
reported in the Florida Agricultural Statistics
Service's (FASS) Citrus Summary 1999-2000.
Estimated trees per acre are derived by taking the
reported number of trees divided by the bearing
acreage (FASS, 2000).

Additional costs to production in an endemic
citrus canker situation also lead to higher delivered-in
costs reflected in additional copper applications, the
establishment of windbreaks for grapefruit trees, and
lower packout rates. The total estimated net change in
the cost of producing marketable citrus varieties is
estimated to be $169.25 million annually (Table 11).

Market Implications

In a citrus industry in which citrus canker has
become established, marketing implications severely
alter the profile of the industry. Citrus canker
significantly damages the appearance of the fruit,
thereby reducing the proportion of fruit that is
suitable for the fresh market. As a result, lower
packout rates lead to higher retail prices in domestic
and export markets. According to the results of the
grapefruit model, the average F.O.B. prices of red
seedless grapefruit for the United States, Canada, and
Japan increase significantly in an endemic citrus
canker situation from $7.60 to $9.93, from $7.80 to
$10.19, and from $10.80 to $14.16, respectively. The
average F.O.B. prices of white seedless grapefruit for
the United States, Canada, and Japan increase
significantly in an endemic citrus canker situation
from $8.03 to $10.34, from $8.00 to $10.30, and from
$11.00 to $14.14, respectively. F.O.B. prices per box
increase significantly for specialty citrus as well. It is
estimated that F.O.B. price per box for early
tangerines, honey tangerines, and navel oranges will
increase from $11.99 to $22.65, from $12.77 to
$24.12, and from $8.89 to $13.97, respectively. The
increase in price was not enough to offset the change
in quantity for grapefruit, thereby reducing total


F.O.B. revenues. Specialty varieties were affected
differently as revenues were estimated to increase.

Trade Implications

If citrus canker were to become endemic to
Florida, it is likely that exports of fresh grapefruit to
Europe will cease. In the case of Argentina in the late
1990s, fresh fruit intended for the European market
had to be harvested from certified canker-free blocks.
These blocks were inspected three times before
harvest and a fourth time during packing. The
certification process meant higher grove care costs
and reduced grove sizes (Muraro, Roka, and Spreen,
June 200 l1a). If Florida were to lose the European
fresh market for red seedless and white seedless
grapefruit, it would experience net revenue losses of
$53 million and $2 million, respectively. Florida also
stands to lose access to the fresh domestic markets of
California and Texas. Possible net losses in revenue
stemming from loss of access to these two markets as
a result of endemic citrus canker were not
incorporated into this analysis.

Total Economic Implications

Total annual benefits of the CCEP associated
with changes in revenue and costs are shown in Table
11. In an endemic citrus canker situation, yield losses
could contribute an estimated annual net revenue loss
of approximately $84.9 million ($95.7 million F.O.B.
revenue loss less $10.8 million on-tree revenue gain).
Annual additional costs to production are estimated to
be $169.2 million. The estimated total net effect and
economic impact of citrus canker is a negative $254.2
million annually. Over the long run, this economic
loss due to an endemic citrus canker situation is
estimated to be nearly $2.5 billion (EDIS FE531).

In this study, an attempt was made to place a
value on the industry if it were to discontinue the
CCEP by estimating the revenue loss and cost savings
associated with the policy. The benefit-cost analysis
of this study concluded that, at the present time, the
benefits far outweigh the costs associated with the
program.

The effects of the 2004 hurricane season add a
new unknown in the CCEP economic analysis, since
the citrus canker bacteria disease is spread by






Florida's Citrus Canker Eradication Program (CCEP): Summary of Annual Costs and Benefits 5


rain-driven wind. Results for the economic analysis
were developed in June of 2004 before Hurricanes
Charley, Francis, and Jeanne passed through Florida.
Continuation of the CCEP beyond 2008 would
require a new study to estimate the economic impact
of the additional costs of the CCEP along with the
losses incurred by Florida's citrus industry.

References

Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service
(APHIS). 2003. Citrus Canker. Washington D.C.:
United States Department of Agriculture. Available
online at
http://www.aphis.usda.gov/ppq/ep/citruscanker.

Brown, M.A., T.H. Spreen and R.P. Muraro.
1999. Fresh versus Processed Utilization of Florida
Grapefruit. Journal of Food Distribution Research
30(3):22-32.

Florida Agricultural Statistics Service (FASS).
2000. Citrus Summary 1999-2000. Orlando, FL.

Gottwald, T.R., J.H. Graham, and T.S. Schubert.
2002. Citrus Canker: The Pathogen and Its Impact.
Plant Health Progress doi:
10.1094/PHP-2002-0812-01-RV.

Graham, J.H. 2001. Varietal Susceptibility to
Citrus Canker: Observations from Southern Brazil.
Citrus Industry 82:15-17.

Graham, J.H. and T.R. Gottwald. 1991. Research
Perspectives on Eradication of Citrus Bacterial
Diseases in Florida. Plant Dis. 75:1193-1200.

Koizumi, M. 1985. Citrus Canker: The World
Situation. In Citrus Canker: An International
Perspective, edited by L.W. Timmer, pp. 2-7. Lake
Alfred, FL: Citrus Research and Education Center,
University of Florida.

McClain, E.A. 1989. A Monte Carlo Simulation
Model of the World Orange Juice Market. Ph.D.
Dissertation, Department of Food and Resource
Economics, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL.

Muraro, R.P., J.W. Hebb, and E.W. Stover.
2000. Budgeting Costs and Returns for Indian River
Citrus Production, 1999-2000. Economic Information


Report EI-01-07, Department of Food and Resource
Economics, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL
(December).

Muraro, R.P., F.M. Roka, and R.E. Rouse. 2000.
Budgeting Costs and Returns for Southwest Florida
Citrus Production, 1999-2000. Economic Information
Report EI-00-07. Department of Food and Resource
Economics, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL
(December).

Muraro, R.P., F.M. Roka, and T.H. Spreen.
2001a. An Overview of Argentina's Citrus Canker
Control Program. Electronic Data Information
Source (EDIS) FE285. Department of Food and
Resource Economics, UF/IFAS, University of
Florida, Gainesville, FL (June).

Muraro, R.P., F.M. Roka and T.H. Spreen. June
2001b. Grower Costs of Having Citrus Canker in
Florida. Electronic Data Information Source (EDIS)
FE286. Department of Food and Resource
Economics, UF/IFAS, University of Florida,
Gainesville, FL (June).

Zansler, M.L. 2004. The Economic Impacts to an
Industry Associated with an Invasive Species: The
Case of Citrus Canker in Florida. Ph.D. Dissertation,
Department of Food and Resource Economics,
University of Florida, Gainesville, FL (August).







Florida's Citrus Canker Eradication Program (CCEP): Summary of Annual Costs and Benefits 6


Table 1. Estimated change in net on-tree revenues for Florida processed oranges associated with endemic citrus canker.
(Source: EDIS FE533)


Variety Processed On-tree Revenues
----------- $1,0 --------------

Without Citrus Canker With Citrus Canker Net Change in Revenue

Early-Midseason 391,410 371,071 (20,338)
Valencia 414,243 414,144 (99)
Estimated Net Change in On-Tree Revenue: (20,437)



Table 2. Estimated change in net F.O.B. revenues for Florida processed oranges associated with endemic citrus canker.
(Source: EDIS FE533)


Processed F.O.B. Revenues
--------------------$1,000--------------
Without Citrus Canker With Citrus Canker Estimated Net Change in F.O.B. Revenue

1,171,670 1,676,550 (35,120)


Table 3. Estimated annual net change in the cost of production associated with endemic citrus canker in the Florida citrus
industry for processed oranges. (Source: EDIS FE533)


Variety Total Processed Orange Production Costs
--- ---------$1, 000 ------
Without Citrus Canker With Citrus Canker Net Revenue Change
Early-Midseason 574,628 582,814 8,186
Valencia 433,183 443,120 6,171
Estimated Net Change in Production Costs: 14,357



Table 4. Estimated annual net change in on-tree revenues for fresh and processed red seedless and white seedless
grapefruit associated with endemic citrus canker. (Source: EDIS FE534)


Variety On-tree Revenues
----------------$1,000-----

Without Citrus Canker With Citrus Canker Net Revenue Change

Fresh Market
Red Seedless Grapefruit 76,982 83,814 6,832
White Seedless Grapefruit 41,770 40,693 (1,077)

Processed Market
Red Seedless Grapefruit 30,342 21,575 (8,767)
White Seedless Grapefruit 39,078 28,812 (10,216)
Estimated Net Change in On-Tree Revenue: (13,229)







Florida's Citrus Canker Eradication Program (CCEP): Summary of Annual Costs and Benefits 7


Table 5. Estimated annual net change in world F.O.B. revenues for red seedless and white seedless grapefruit associated
with endemic citrus canker. (Source: EDIS FE534)


Variety F.O.B. Revenues
--------- $1,000 --------------
Without Citrus Canker With Citrus Canker Net Change in Revenue
Red Seedless Grapefruit
United States 108,110 121,037 12,927
Canada 16,271 18,332 2,061
European Union 52,696 -- (52,696)
Japan 53,989 39,364 (14,624)
Estimated Net Change in F.O.B. Revenue: (52,333)
White Seedless Grapefruit
United States 11,949 13,401 1,452
Canada 1,344 1,504 160
European Union 2,034 (2,034)
Japan 75,768 57,012 (18,756)
Estimated Net Change in F.O.B. Revenue: ($19,177)



Table 6. Estimated annual net change in the cost of production of red seedless and white seedless grapefruit. (Source: EDIS
FE534)


Variety Total Production Costs
------------$1,000 ----------------
Without Citrus Canker With Citrus Canker Net Revenue Change
Field Run
Red Seedless Grapefruit 27,666 25,565 (2,101)
White Seedless Grapefruit 53.453 54.149 696
Packinghouse
Red Seedless Grapefruit 365,299 411,370 46,071
White Seedless Grapefruit 171,374 199,396 28,022
Estimated Change in Production Cost: 72,688




Table 7a. Estimated annual net change in on-tree revenues for fresh specialty fruit associated with endemic
citrus canker. (Source: EDIS FE534)
Variety On-tree Revenues
----------------$--$1,000-----

Without Citrus Canker With Citrus Canker Net Revenue Change
Fresh Market
Early Tangerines 24,985 46,273 21,288
Honey Tangerines 18,626 32,015 13,389
Navel Oranges 23,162 31,645 8,483
Temples 2,464 2,464 0
Tangelos 4,085 4,085 0
Estimated Net Change in On-Tree Revenue: 43,160







Florida's Citrus Canker Eradication Program (CCEP): Summary of Annual Costs and Benefits 8




Table 7b. Estimated annual net change in on-tree revenue for processed specialty fruit associated with
endemic citrus canker. (Source: EDIS FE535)
Variety On-tree Revenues
S- ----------$ $1,000------------------

Without Citrus Canker With Citrus Canker Net Revenue Change

Processed Market
Early Tangerines 1,754 2,396 642
Honey Tangerines 1,117 1,860 743
Navel Oranges 598 962 365
Temples 2,507 2,301 (206)
Tangelos 1,464 1,244 (220)

Estimated Net Change in On-Tree Revenue: 1,323



Table 8. Estimated annual net change in F.O.B. revenues for specialty citrus fruit associated with endemic citrus canker.
(Source EDIS FE535)


Variety F.O.B. Revenues
-- -------- $1,000 -------------

Without Citrus Canker With Citrus Canker Net Change in Revenue
Early Tangerine 63,067 71,476 8,409

Honey Tangerine 45,717 51,812 6,096

Navel Oranges 63,848 60,200 (3,648)

Estimated Net Change in F.O.B. Revenue: 10,856



Table 9. Estimated annual net change in the cost of production of specialty fruit. (Source: EDIS FE535)


Variety Total Production Costs
-- ---------$1,000 --------
Without Citrus Canker With Citrus Canker Net Revenue Change

Packinghouse

Early Tangerines 58,194 71,216 13,022
Honey Tangerines 88,131 105,862 17,731

Navel Oranges 122,472 156,784 34,312
Temples 12,696 16,434 3,738

Tangelos 31,755 45,154 13,399
Estimated Change in Production Cost: 82,201







Florida's Citrus Canker Eradication Program (CCEP): Summary of Annual Costs and Benefits 9


Table 10. Equivalent tree loss under endemic citrus canker based on estimated yield loss.


Variety Estimated Boxes per Estimated Trees per Equivalent Lost
Yield Loss Acrea Acreage Loss Acrea Trees

(1,000 boxes) (1,000 acres) (1,000 trees)

Early-Midseason 13,400 437 30.664 127 3,881
Valencia 4,950 335 14.776 135 1,995
Red Seedless Grapefruit 3,190 465 6.860 112 765
White Seedless Grapefruit 2,563 485 4.309 101 434
Early Tangerines 265 298 0.889 150 133

Honey Tangerines 435 253 1.719 151 260

Navels 540 240 2.250 127 285
Temples 195 336 0.580 113 66
Tangelos 220 195 1.128 123 139
Total Estimated Tree Loss Equivalent: 7,956
aSource: Citrus Summary 1999-00, FASS.



Table 11. Summary of estimated net effect and economic impact of citrus canker on revenues and costs for Florida citrus.


Estimations Net Change Total Net Change

$1,000 $1,000

Estimated Annual Net Change (Loss) in On-Tree Revenue:

Processed Oranges (20,437)
Fresh/Processed Grapefruit (13,229)
Fresh/Processed Specialty Fruit 44,483
Total Annual Net Change in On-Tree Revenue 10,817

Estimated Annual Net Change (Loss) in F.O.B. Revenue:

Processed Oranges (35,120)
Fresh/Processed Grapefruit (71,510)
Fresh/Processed Specialty Fruit 10,856
Total Annual Net Change (Loss) in F.O.B. Revenue (95,774)

Estimated Annual Net Change (Increase) in Costs:
Processed Oranges (14,357)
Fresh/Processed Grapefruit (72,688)
Fresh/Processed Specialty Fruit (82,201)
Total Annual Net Change (Increase) in Costs (169,246)

Total Annual Net Effect and Economic Impact (Loss) (254,203)




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