• TABLE OF CONTENTS
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 Title Page
 Current status and future outlook...
 Africa's food security dilemma
 U.S. food aid and food aid...
 World food summit
 Appendix I: Stocks of world grain,...
 Appendix II: Relation between grain...
 Appendix III: Food aid shipments...
 Appendix IV: Rate of global cereal...
 Appendix V: Estimates and projections...
 Appendix VI: Nutrition-based food...
 Appendix VII: Distribution of U.S....
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Group Title: Testimony ;, GAO/T-NSIAD-96-217
Title: International relations : : food security in Africa : statement of Harold J. Johnson, Associate Director, International Relations and Trade Issues, National Security and International Affairs Division, before the Subcommittee on African Affairs, Committee on Foreign Relations, U.S. Senate
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Permanent Link: http://ufdc.ufl.edu/UF00056208/00001
 Material Information
Title: International relations : : food security in Africa : statement of Harold J. Johnson, Associate Director, International Relations and Trade Issues, National Security and International Affairs Division, before the Subcommittee on African Affairs, Committee on Foreign Relations, U.S. Senate
Series Title: Testimony ;, GAO/T-NSIAD-96-217
Alternate Title: Food security in Africa
Physical Description: 20, 2 p. : ill. ; 28 cm.
Language: English
Creator: Johnson, Harold J. (Harold James), 1941-
United States. General Accounting Office.
United States. Congress.; Senate.; Committee on Foreign Relations.; Subcommittee on African Affairs.
Publisher: The Office ; The Office distributor,
Publication Date: 1996
 Subjects
Subject: Food relief, American.
Food supply -- Forecasting.
Food supply -- Forecasting. -- Africa
Agriculture   ( lcsh )
Farm life   ( lcsh )
Farming   ( lcsh )
Africa   ( lcsh )
Spatial Coverage: Africa
 Notes
General Note: "July 31, 1996."
General Note: Includes bibliographical references.
 Record Information
Bibliographic ID: UF00056208
Volume ID: VID00001
Source Institution: Marston Science Library, George A. Smathers Libraries, University of Florida
Holding Location: University of Florida
Rights Management: All rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier: notis - ocm3528

Table of Contents
    Copyright
        Copyright
    Title Page
        Title Page
    Current status and future outlook for world food security
        Page 1
        Future outlook
            Page 2
            Page 3
    Africa's food security dilemma
        Page 4
        Page 5
        Some key factors affecting the future outlook for sub-Saharan food security
            Page 6
        U.S. development and trade assistance policy toward sub-Saharan Africa
            Page 7
    U.S. food aid and food aid programs
        Page 8
        Page 9
    World food summit
        Page 10
        Page 11
        Page 12
        Page 13
    Appendix I: Stocks of world grain, 1968-96
        Page 14
    Appendix II: Relation between grain prices and food aid to low-income, food-deficit countries, 1972-96
        Page 15
    Appendix III: Food aid shipments of grain by donors, 1972-96
        Page 16
    Appendix IV: Rate of global cereal production growth, area cultivated, and crop yield, 1966-90
        Page 17
    Appendix V: Estimates and projections of incidence of chronic undernutrition in five regions, 1969-2010
        Page 18
    Appendix VI: Nutrition-based food grain needs versus food aid received by three regions, 1993-96
        Page 19
    Appendix VII: Distribution of U.S. food aid by regions, 1993-96 (fiscal years)
        Page 20
    Advertising
        Page 21
        Page 22
Full Text





HISTORIC NOTE


The publications in this collection do
not reflect current scientific knowledge
or recommendations. These texts
represent the historic publishing
record of the Institute for Food and
Agricultural Sciences and should be
used only to trace the historic work of
the Institute and its staff. Current IFAS
research may be found on the
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(EDIS)

site maintained by the Florida
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Copyright 2005, Board of Trustees, University
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-. O02-


GAO


United States General Accounting Office
Testimony


Before the Subcommittee on African Affairs, Committee on
Foreign Relations, U.S. Senate


For Release on Delivery
Expected at
2:00 p.m., EDT
Wednesday,
July 31, 1996


INTERNATIONAL
RELATIONS


Food Security in Africa


Statement of Harold J. Johnson, Associate Director,
International Relations and Trade Issues, National
Security and International Affairs Division


G A 0
wafy ears
1921 1996
GAO/T-NSIAD-96-217

















Madam Chair and Members of the Subcommittee:

I am pleased to be here today to discuss the food security situation in
Africa. My statement will cover

(1) the current status and future outlook for world food security in
general,

(2)Africa's food security dilemma in particular,

(3)U.S. food aid and food aid programs, and

(4)the World Food Summit scheduled for November of this year.

My testimony is based on some of our past work on food security issues,
as well as preliminary observations on work that we are conducting, at
your request, on global food security issues and U.S. government
preparations for the World Food Summit.


Current Status and Food security exists when all people at all times have physical and
economic access to sufficient food to meet their dietary needs for a
Future Outlook for productive and healthy life. Food security has several important
World Food Security dimensions:
(1)Availability achieved when sufficient supplies of food of appropriate
quality are consistently available to all individuals;

(2)Access ensured when households and all individuals in them have
adequate resources to obtain appropriate foods for a nutritious diet.

(3)Utilization refers to the proper biological use of food through
adequate diet, water, sanitation, and health care.

The Administration acknowledges that world food security is important to
the United States for humanitarian, economic, and national security
reasons.

The United States and other nations that signed the 1974 World Food
Conference Declaration committed to achieving world food security
within 10 years. More than 20 years later, the world still falls far short of


GAO/T-NSIAD-96-217


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this goal.' Eighty-eight countries are currently classified as low-income
and food-deficit states. According to FAO, close to 800 million people, or
20 percent of the developing world's population, are chronically
undernourished. Most of these people are in South Asia and sub-Saharan
Africa. In addition, millions of other people in more affluent societies do
not have enough food to meet their basic needs. And millions more
experience prolonged hunger during part of the year, or suffer birth
defects, growth retardation, mental deficiency, lethargy, blindness, or
death because they do not have the diversity of food necessary to meet
their total needs. An estimated 200 million children under the age of 5
suffer protein or energy deficiencies.

FAO has projected that, unless the root causes underlying food security are
addressed by 2010, 700 million to 800 million persons worldwide will still
be chronically undernourished. In sub-Saharan Africa alone, FAO projects
that the chronically undernourished will increase from about 200 million
to more than 300 million people in the next 15 years (see app. V). Most of
the rest of the chronically undernourished will be found in South Asia.

Poverty is a primary obstacle to food security. Worldwide, 1.3 billion
people, or nearly one-quarter of the world's population, live on less than
1 dollar a day. Their low income makes them especially vulnerable when
prices for basic commodities increase rapidly and sharply. Other
important factors affecting food security include weather, civil strife and
war, widespread unemployment or underemployment, inadequate returns
to food producers, unsustainable use of natural resources, high debt
service, overvalued exchange rates, and distorted international markets.


Future Outlook Currently, world grain stocks are at a 20-year low, grain prices are at an
all-time high, and world food aid is in a sharp decline (see apps. I-m).
Food insecurity and food aid problems could increase significantly over
the short, medium, and long run. There are several reasons why this is so.

Although population growth rates have been declining, the world's
population is expected to increase by 2.6 billion people by 2025. As a
result, even with modest income growth, world food supplies will have to




'The world has made some important progress toward reducing food insecurity. For example,
according to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO) estimates, 35 percent of
people in developing countries were chronically malnourished in 1969-71 but only 20 percent by
1990-92.


GAOfI-NSIAD-96-217


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at least double by that year according to the World Bank.2 The Bank
concludes that due to land and water constraints, future increases in food
supplies must come primarily from increasing yields, rather than from area
expansion and more irrigation. This would require a doubling of current
yields over the next 30 years, which is uncertain. (See also app. IV.)

An October 1995 U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Economic
Research Service (ERS) study3 found that world food aid needs will nearly
double over the next decade simply to maintain current consumption
levels. This is even if one makes reasonably optimistic assumptions about
recipient countries' ability to produce their own food or to import food
commercially. Far higher food aid levels would be required if the target
was to meet minimum nutritional standards. The study concluded that
there is a looming mismatch between food aid resources and needs. If
global food aid budgets are maintained at 1995 levels, the gap between
needs and resources will grow rapidly. Factors limiting food aid
availabilities include changes in agricultural policies that will likely reduce
agricultural surpluses, and reductions in aid budgets of donor countries.
According to the study, funding will be the major factor affecting food aid
shipments in the future. It noted that recent governmentwide budget
reductions in the United States and in some other countries have already
resulted in significant reductions in food aid donations. For example, food
aid shipments of grain by donors peaked at 15.2 million metric tons (mmt)
in 1992-93, declined to 12.6 mmt in 1993-94, and were estimated to have
declined to 8.4 mmt in 1994-95. U.S. shipments peaked at 8.5 mmt in
1992-93 and were estimated to drop to 4.2 mmt by 1994-95. These
reductions have already affected the food security of the recipient
countries.

Other factors affecting the future of world food security include the
following:

(1)Many major agricultural producers, including the United States,
Canada, Australia, and the European Union, are implementing increasingly
more market-oriented agricultural policies, partly in response to the 1994
Uruguay Round trade agreement of the General Agreement on Tariffs and
Trade (GATr). More market-oriented policies are likely to result in a
reduction of agricultural surpluses and in less grain held in stocks,


Aiex F. McCalla, Agriculture and Food Needs to 2025: Why We Should Be Concerned (Washington,
D.C.: The World Bank, October 1994).
3Food Aid Needs and Availabilities: Projections for 2005 (Washington, D.C.: USDA Economic Research
Service, October 1995).


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particularly in government-held stocks. Lower average stocks, in turn, may
lead to more year-to-year volatility in grain markets. Current U.S.
agricultural policy removes the link between income support payments
and farm prices. As a result, incentives for surplus agricultural production
are diminished. U.S. government-held stocks are likely to decline sharply.

(2)Although signatories to the 1994 Uruguay Round trade agreement
agreed to establish mechanisms to ensure that implementation would not
adversely affect food aid commitments to meet the authentic needs of
developing countries and stressed the need for bona fide food aid, the
agreement was not specific on how this is to be accomplished.

(3)To the extent that the trade agreement results in slightly higher grain
prices than without the agreement, food aid availabilities may be reduced
because a given budget will purchase less grain.



Africa's Food Security In terms of food security and regions of the world, Africa faces the most
difficulties. According to FAO, Africa currently accounts for about
Dilemma 200 million, or about 25 percent, of the chronically malnourished people in
developing countries. However, if no action is taken to reverse the present
trend, by 2010 this figure could exceed 300 million and as much as
40 percent of the chronically malnourished. Sub-Saharan Africa is the only
region where chronic malnutrition is expected to increase between now
and 2010. (See app. V.)

According to one recent study,4 Africa's agricultural production and trade
have been affected by a variety of factors from the period following
independence to the present, including: (1) the effects of the Cold War on
agricultural and rural development policies, (2) chronic civil and social
strife and the displacement of populations, (3) the mismanagement of
national resources, (4) the failure to build capacity in critical areas such as
policy analysis and entrepreneurship, (5) developments in the agriculture
sectors and policies of industrialized countries, (6) the reduction in
demand for primary commodities, (7) shocks caused by the oil crisis,
(8) periodic droughts,5 and (9) the entry of the former Soviet Union into
world markets.


4A 2020 Vision for Food, Agriculture, and the Environment in Sub-Saharan Africa, eds. Ousmane
Badiane and Christopher L Delgado (Washington, D.C.: International Food Policy Research Institute,
June 1995).
sMajor droughts occurred in 1972-73,1983-84, 1992-93, and 1994-95. Other droughts, less severe and
more localized, have occurred over the years.


GAOf/-NSIAD-96-217


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In May 1996 FAO designated 14 of 48 sub-Saharan countries (involving
22 million people) as facing exceptional food emergencies.6 The countries
and the reasons cited by FAO for the emergencies are listed in table 1.

Table 1: Sub-Saharan Countries
Facing Exceptional Food Emergencies, Country Reasons for Emergency
May 1996 Angola Population displacement
Burundi Civil strife, displacement of rural population
Eritrea Reduced harvest, large number of vulnerable people
Ethiopia Large number of vulnerable people, localized drought
Lesotho Drought-reduced harvest
Liberia Civil disturbances, population displacement, shortage of farm
inputs
Malawi Drought-reduced harvest, Mozambican refugees
Mozambique Displacement of rural population
Rwanda Population displacement, reduced plantings
Sierra Leone Population displacement
Somalia Civil strife, poor harvest
Sudan Displaced persons, localized food deficits, civil strife
Zaire Rwandan refugees, civil disturbances affecting food distribution
Zambia Drought-reduced harvest
Source: FAO.


FAO described the food security situation for sub-Saharan Africa as
precarious, as global cereal supplies tighten and food availabilities shrink
Sharp increases in cereal prices on the world market and the consequent
higher cost of cereal imports, coupled with balance of payments
difficulties in food-deficit countries, will mean that a large proportion of
food imports will need to be covered by food aid. However, FAO forecasts
that global availability of food aid in 1995-96 will be only 7.6 million tons,
down for the third consecutive year. The reduced availability and stiff
competition for food aid from countries of Eastern Europe and the former
Soviet Union suggests that Africa's minimum food needs in 1996-97 will
remain unmet Unless exceptional food aid allocations are made, FAO said,
undernutrition will rise further from its already high level.7



6Food Supply Situation and Crop Prospects in Sub-Saharan Africa (Rome: FAO, May 1996).
7The report found no signs of an imminent improvement in the food supply situation of sub-Saharan
Africa as a whole. However, it did note some positive signs. For example, it said the supply situation is
generally satisfactory in western Africa, following good harvests in most Sahelian and coastal
countries.


GAOfT-NSIAD-96-217


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Our analysis of Department of Agriculture data indicates that sub-Saharan
Africa's grains food deficit relative to its nutrition-based food needs may
have increased from as much as 12 percent in 1993-94 to as much as
17 percent in 1994-95. In other words, the hungry had even less food to eat.
The data also indicate an increase in the deficit for Latin America from as
much as 16 percent in 1993-94 to 22 percent in 1994-95. However, the
deficit probably remained quite small for food aid recipient countries in
Asia, at less than 3 percent. (See app. VI.) During 1994-96, countries in Asia
and the Middle East received about 19 percent of all U.S food aid.
Sub-Saharan Africa's share increased from about 31 percent to 33 percent
between 1994 and 1995, but may drop to 26 percent in 1996. The share of
Latin American and Caribbean recipients dropped from about 21 percent
in 1994 to 16 percent in 1995. (See app. VII.)


Some Key Factors
Affecting the Future
Outlook for Sub-Saharan
Food Security


Food security in sub-Saharan Africa is threatened by continuing and rapid
population growth. It is the only region in the world where the growth
rate, currently at about 3.2 percent, has not started to decline.8 (Latin
America's rate peaked at 2.9 percent in the early 1960s and South Asia's
rate at 2.5 percent in the late 1960s.) Population growth has important
consequences for food security, since Africa's food consumption currently
exceeds its food production. Presently, 30 percent of sub-Saharan Africa's
cereal output is in areas of low and unreliable rainfall. Fifty percent of
cultivable land is in arid and semi-arid regions. Unless food production
expands at a rapid rate, imports will have to increase dramatically to
improve Africa's food security. However, a number of African countries
face a bleak economic outlook Continuing balance of payments
difficulties are seriously limiting their capacity for increasing commercial
exports as well as imports. Exports of primary commodities, the main
source of revenue for sub-Saharan Africa, show a 20-year history of
declining terms of trade.9 The sharp rise in international cereal prices is
estimated to have increased the food import bill of the low-income,
food-deficit countries of sub-Saharan Africa by approximately $1 billion
during 1994-95.10

In terms of income, many Africans are worse off today than they were a
decade ago, and real per capital income is projected to grow at only

sAccording to FAO, demographic projections for 2010 by the United Nations put the growth rate at
2.9 percent This would still result in an estimated 300 million chronically undernourished people.
9See A. Marter and A. Gordon, "Emerging Issues Confronting the Renewable Natural Resources Sector
in Sub-Saharan Africa," Food Policy (Exeter, U.K: May 1996).
TFood Supply Situation and Crop Prospects in Sub-Saharan Africa


GAO/T-NSIAD-96-217


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0.3 percent during the 1990s. By the year 2000, 30 percent of the world's
poor are expected to be in sub-Saharan Africa, compared to 16 percent in
the mid-1980s. Poverty places a heavy burden on sub-Saharan Africa's
efforts to improve its food security situation, since income is more likely
to be needed for current consumption at the expense of savings that could
help finance investments in economic development. Increasing
urbanization also adversely affects sub-Saharan efforts to improve its
situation. At the current rate of urbanization (about 8 percent per year),
41 percent of the population is expected to be urban based by the turn of
the century. By 2020, at least 30 cities in sub-Saharan Africa are expected
to have more than 1 million inhabitants. As urbanization increases, the
proportion of people not producing food will increase, and the quality of
the traditional rural agricultural work force may deteriorate due to out-
migration of some of the most productive people from rural areas.
Moreover, because most migrants are likely to be men, a concomitant
increase in female-headed households may occur. Increased urbanization
is also likely to bolster the need to supply city populations with more
water, diverting supply away from agricultural areas.1


U.S. Development and
Trade Assistance Policy
Toward Sub-Saharan Africa


In February 1996 the U.S. Trade Representative sent the President a
comprehensive trade and development policy for the 48 countries of
sub-Saharan Africa According to the report, Africa's aspirations for
growth and development have been hampered by a combination of
problems, including flawed economic policy choices, political
mismanagement and an absence of democratic political institutions, weak
private sectors stifled by dominating parastatals, overwhelming debt
burdens, poverty and widespread unemployment, and environmental
degradation. The report says that the primary responsibility for achieving
sustainable economic development and increased trade and investment
lies with the people and leaders of Africa.'

It also concludes that bilateral and multilateral international cooperation
is essential to reinforce African national efforts and that resources
available to the U.S. government, multilateral institutions, and others
providing official development assistance to Africa are in decline. The
report outlines a policy approach structured around several basic
objectives: promotion of trade and investment liberalization, development


"A. Marter and A. Gordon.
12As discussed in the following section, this approach is consistent with the U.S. Agency for
International Development's (USAID) development assistance policy and with the government's
position paper on food security prepared for the World Food Summit.


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of the private sector, enhancement of the infrastructure, and economic
and regulatory reform. However, it contains no discussion of the food
security situation affecting many sub-Saharan African countries and
whether a special strategy is needed to address the problem.



U.S. Food Aid and U.S. food aid programs have sought to enhance food security in developing
countries through the use of agricultural commodities and local currencies
Food Aid Programs to (1) combat world hunger and malnutrition and their causes;
(2) promote sustainable economic development, including agricultural
development; (3) expand international trade; (4) develop and expand
export markets for U.S. agricultural commodities; and (5) encourage the
growth of private enterprise and democratic participation in developing
countries.

Historically, the United States has provided much of the world's food aid.
(As shown in app. II, other major donors over the years include Australia,
Canada, the European Union, and Japan.) According to USDA, in 1995, the
United States provided about $1.35 billion worth of food aid assistance,
including $500 million for emergency relief. U.S. food aid, primarily under
the Public Law 480 (Food for Peace) Program, has decreased in absolute
terms and as a percentage of total U.S. agricultural exports since the 1950s
and 1960s when it was the primary U.S. agricultural export program. More
recently, the amount of U.S. food aid has dropped dramatically from
13.1 million metric tons in fiscal year 1993 to an estimated 4.0 million
metric tons in fiscal year 1995. ( See app. VII.) The decrease was due in
part to budgetary constraints and the reduction of government-held
commodity surpluses. A similar trend has taken place in other donor
countries including the European Union, Canada, and Australia.

Despite sub-Saharan Africa's growing food security needs, U.S. food aid
varies due in part to unpredictable emergency food needs. According to
the Congressional Research Service, in fiscal year 1993 when eastern and
southern Africa experienced a major drought, U.S. food aid amounted to
43 percent of bilateral aid, and in 1994, when conditions improved, it
dropped to 27 percent.13 Most U.S. sub-Saharan Africa food aid is in the
form of emergency and humanitarian grants under title I of the Public
Law 480 program. Countries in sub-Saharan Africa receive a significant
proportion of title II food aid annually.



13Raymond W. Copson, Africa: U.S. Foreign Assistance Issues, Library of Congress, Congressional
Research Service Issue Brief 1B95052 (Washington, D.C.: July 16, 1996).


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According to USDA's Economic Research Service, the distribution of U.S.
food aid has changed in the last 5 years mainly as a result of the fall of the
Communist system in Europe and changing food needs around the world.
It reports that from 1989 through 1992, Africa received the largest share of
U.S. food aid. However, it states that in 1993 the region that received the
largest share was Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union countries,
especially Russia. Concurrently, the share of U.S. food aid to Asia and
Latin America decreased.14 (See also app. VII.)

Sub-Saharan African countries rarely receive long-term concessional food
aid loans under title I of the Public Law 480 program, since only a few
countries are in a position to make repayments. A few of Africa's poorest
countries have received U.S. food donations under title m of the Public
Law 480 program, known as "Food for Development," which can be used
for feeding programs or sold on the open market, with proceeds to be used
for development purposes. A few African countries have benefitted under
section 416(b) of the Agricultural Act of 1949, as amended which permits
donations of surplus food to developing countries, emerging democracies,
and relief organizations.

U.S. food aid programs have not been without problems. For example, in a
1993 review,'5 we identified several problems involving the U.S. Agency for
International Development's (USAID) management of Public Law 480 titles
II and I food aid programs, most notably that USAID had not developed
policy guidance on how food aid should be used as a means of
contributing to long-term food security. Other problems included USAID'S
lack of criteria and guidance for implementing food aid programs, USAID'S
inability to demonstrate the impact of its food aid programs on food
security, and USAID's failure to ensure accountability for food aid
resources. We made 13 recommendations to usAm for addressing these
problems. In March 1995,16 we reported that usAID had fully or partially
implemented 11 of 13 of the recommendations. Most importantly, in
February 1995, USAID issued written policy guidance on how food aid could
be used to achieve food security and was in the process of developing an
overall "management for results" approach that will change the focus from
measuring program outputs to measuring impact.


14Agricultural Export Programs (Washington, D.C.: USDA/ERS).
'See Food Aid: Management Improvements Are Needed to Achieve Program Objectives
(GAO/NSIAD-93-168, July 23,1993). The study examined programs in eight overseas missions,
including missions in three African countries-Burkina Faso, Uganda, and Zambia).
'6Foreign Aid: Actions Taken to Improve Food Aid Management (GAO/NSIAD-95-74, Mar. 23,1995).


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In a 1995 review,17 we found that title I could be making a meaningful,
short-term contribution to the food supply in some recipient countries, but
that its contribution to sustainable economic development was minimal
because of the program's small size relative to each country's overall
development needs. Also, we noted that title I's importance to helping
develop long-term agricultural markets-one of its primary objectives-
had not been demonstrated, and that the program's multiple and
sometimes competing goals and objectives and various program
requirements made it difficult for USDA to integrate title I into an effective
program strategy.



World Food Summit In November 1996 a World Food Summit will be held in Rome. This is the
first major conference of world leaders to assess world food security
issues since 1974. Countries attending the summit are trying to reach
agreement on a broad policy statement and plan of action for significantly
advancing world progress toward achieving food security. The summit will
not seek to establish new institutions for promoting food security nor
pledges from donor countries for increased levels of assistance. It is not
clear at this time whether an attempt will be made to secure agreement on
a target year for achieving global food security.

Preparations for the summit have been underway for some time. Since
January 1996, various forums have discussed suggested drafts of a policy
statement and plan of action for the summit and country and private
sector views on world food security. FAO member countries have prepared
individual country position papers, laying out their views on actions
needed to advance world food security and describing the status of food
security within their respective borders. In addition, countries within
specific geographical regions (e.g., North American, Latin America, etc.)
have prepared regional papers on the subject.

In early July, the U.S. government finalized a position paper for the summit
that summarizes its views on food security. In addition, the United States
completed a regional paper that was jointly prepared with Canada. (A
high-level interagency task force, co-led by USDA, the State Department,
and USAID prepared the U.S. paper and input for the joint paper with
Canada.). According to the U.S. paper, the root causes of food insecurity
must be addressed by both individual countries and the international
community as a whole. However, the paper states that because of the

"See Food Aid: Competing Goals and Requirements Hinder Title I Program Results (GAO/GGD-95-68,
June 26, 1995). The review included audit work in seven overseas posts, including two in Africa (Egypt
and Morocco).


GAO/T-NSIAD-96-217


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difficult budget environment in both the United States and abroad,
developing countries will have to take primary responsibility for improving
their own food security with limited external assistance.

In the U.S.' view, countries that have demonstrated the most progress in
achieving food security are those that have seriously pursued policy
reform, macroeconomic stabilization, and structural adjustment, while
focusing government activities on public goods investment and provision
of safety nets. Such commitment and assumption of responsibility at the
national level create a climate conducive to private and public external
investment. Consequently, the United States plans to concentrate its food
assistance efforts on those countries that are willing to review and change
their national policies to improve their own food security. This approach is
consistent with USAID statements in recent years that it is concentrating its
assistance efforts on those countries that are partners in development and
where sustainable development results can be achieved. According to
USAID, sustainable development cannot be achieved in countries that are
not willing to change their policies, do not allow their own citizens to
participate adequately in the development process, and have not invested
their own resources in sustainable development or have invested a
disproportionate amount in the military at the expense of development.

The United States has said that it will continue to play a major role in
promoting food security around the world. To this end, the United States
plans to do the following:

* enhance U.S. government support for research and technology
development in agriculture and related sectors, both at home and abroad.
* continue support for food security through the use of agriculture
programs, development assistance, and food aid. Employ an integrated
approach to sustainable development, with a strong emphasis on those
countries that show a good-faith willingness to adopt necessary policy
reforms.
* work with all countries to achieve freer trade and to assure that the
benefits are equitably realized. Urge all countries to open their markets in
the interest of achieving greater stability and participation in the world
market.
* continue support for international efforts to respond to and prevent
humanitarian crises that create a need for emergency food.
* continue efforts to encourage and facilitate implementation of food
security-related actions adopted at recent international conferences or
established in recently agreed-to conventions.


GAO/r-NSIAD-96-217


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* work within the multilateral system to enhance global approaches to food
security.
* continue to work toward food security for all Americans.

During July 29-August 22, FAO countries will present and exchange
individual country position papers at a meeting in Italy. In addition, it is
the first meeting where all of the regional country papers will be
exchanged and discussed. The meeting will also discuss a proposed draft
policy statement and plan of action for the summit Substantive
negotiations among member countries are expected, aimed at trying to
reach a consensus on most, if not all, major issues to be addressed by the
draft. In late September, the Committee on World Food Security will meet
and try to negotiate a final text for use by the summit leaders. If not fully
successful, a senior officials' meeting will try to accomplish the same
immediately before the summit itself, which is scheduled for
November 13-17.

A variety of issues may arise in the course of the negotiations. Although
we do not know the content at this point, based on discussions we have
had with officials and our monitoring of two forums where comments
were provided on draft position papers for the summit, differences may
surface between developed and developing countries over the amount of
reform the latter need to undertake and the amount of assistance the
former are willing to provide. Other issues that may arise during the
negotiation process include the following:

Are international grain reserves adequate given the unusually low levels to
which world grain stocks have fallen and the adoption of more
market-oriented agricultural policies by many countries? Do major
agricultural producing/exporting countries have sufficient incentive to
hold stocks adequate for coping with emergency situations? Is some sort
of new global grain reserve required?
Have agricultural reforms introduced by the 1994 Uruguay Round trade
agreement had any negative effects to date on the least-developed and net
food-importing countries in terms of access to adequate supplies of basic
foodstuffs from external sources on reasonable terms and conditions,
including financing of their normal levels of commercial imports? If so, are
other countries prepared to increase food aid commitments to offset such
effects?
Will food-insecure countries be asked to open their markets to
international agricultural trade as a condition for receiving assistance
designed to help them achieve food security over the long run? If so, what


GAO/T-NSIAD-96-217


Page 12


















assurances will they obtain that major agricultural producing/exporting
countries will keep their markets fully open at all times, including in times
of tight world supplies and rapidly rising prices?
* In seeking to identify what actions are needed to help all countries achieve
food security, what scenarios of future world agricultural production
should be considered?
* Should a target date for achieving world food security be agreed upon?
Without a target date, will summit signatories be able to outline a realistic
plan of the actions needed to achieve food security? Should a plan of
action estimate the amount of resources required in agricultural
production and food-related investment to achieve food security?
* Given that food aid donations have declined during the past 3 years and
given projections of a significant mismatch between food aid resources
and food aid needs in future years, what will make an action plan for
achieving food security credible to food-insecure countries?

In summary, we believe that the World Food Summit provides an
important opportunity for all countries to address critical issues of world
food security. Hopefully, it will do so in a way that significantly advances
efforts by sub-Saharan African countries to cope with their food security
problems.


This concludes my prepared remarks. I will be happy to answer any
questions you or other Members of the Subcommittee may have.


GAO/T-NSIAD-96-217


Page 13







Appendix I

Stocks of World Grain, 1968-96


Metric tons (millions)


Percent of consumption


ii
Sr


1968 1970 72 74 76


U
P a,
a..
g
*
*


78 1980 82
Years


A
I,


rI


~iI I I


JIll


84 86 88 1990 92 94 96


Stocks Stock-to-consumption ratio
a ..l* .*


Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Foreign Agricultural Service. Based on annual
data for 1967-68 through 1995-96.


GAOf/-NSIAD-96-217


V
Be
*
*



S e
. 00
11


- 30


- 25


200 --


- 20


- 15



- 10



- 5



0


I


!


Page 14







Appendix II

Relation Between Grain Prices and Food


Aid to Low-Income, Food-Deficit Countries,


1972-96


Tons (millions)


Price per ton (dollars)


12 -




*M
I I

10-

%

8-

6 I





4-
2-



0
4 --







0 I l I I Il I l
197273 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94


U
0
0
C
C
C
I
I
0


- 200





- 150





- 100





- 50





0


Food aid Export price






Source: United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). Annual data from 1971-72
through 1995-96.


GAOf/-NSIAD-96-217


Page 15






Appendix ml

Food Aid Shipments of Grain by Donors,

1972-96


Tons (millions)
20


0o r I 1 1 il ll i l l l l l ll l i ml l tlli i l i F 111 l 111 l ll 1 1111 l l l
1972 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96

l United States -] European Union 0 Canada M Japan i Australia [] Others



Source: FAO. Annual data for 1971-72 through 1995-96.


GAO/T-NSIAD-96-217


Page 16






Appendix IV

Rate of Global Cereal Production Growth,

Area Cultivated, and Crop Yield, 1966-90


Percent
5


SArea
Area


Yield


D 1966-73 l 1974-82 M 1983-90



Source: GAO calculations using FAO data.


GAO/T-NSIAD-96-217


4-



3-



2-



1-



0


Production


Page 17







Appendix V

Estimates and Projections of Incidence of

Chronic Undernutrition in Five Regions,

1969-2010


Population (millions)
1,000


Sub-Saharan Africa Near East


East Asia


South Asia Latin America


E] 1969-71 l 1979-81 i 1990-92 M 2010


Note: Data are 3-year averages, except for 2010.
Source: FAO.


GAO/T-NSIAD-96-217


800 -



600 -



400 -



200 -




0


Total


Page 18






Appendix VI

Nutrition-Based Food Grain Needs Versus

Food Aid Received by Three Regions,

1993-96




Deficit in
Total grain Nutrition-based nutrition-based Deficit as percent
required for food aid grain food aid grain of total
nutritional needs needs (tons in Actual food aid in needs (tons in nutrition-based
Year (tons in millions) millions) grain received millions) needs
Sub-Saharan Africa
1993-94 60.1 11.7 4.3 7.4 12.3
1994-95 62.6 14.2 3.5 10.7 17.1
1995-96 63.1 13.6 N/A N/A N/A
Latin America
1993-94 8.7 2.8 1.4 1.4 16.1
1994-95 8.8 2.8 0.8 2 22.7
1995-96 9.1 2.6 N/A N/A N/A
Asia
1993-94 252.5 8.7 1.5 7.2 2.9
1994-95 257.9 7.8 1.6 6.2 2.4
1995-96 260.8 9.5 N/A N/A N/A
Source: USDA data, including projected food aid needs. Calculations by GAO.
Legend: N/A= not available


GAO/T-NSIAD-96-217


Page 19







Appendix VII

Distribution of U.S. Food Aid by Regions,

1993-96 (fiscal years)


Million metric tons Percent of total U.S. food aid
Region 1993 1994 1995 1996 1993 1994 1995 1996
Asia & Middle East 1.4 1.0 0.8 0.5 10.6 19.4 19.6 19.4
Eastern Europe 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.2 5.5 6.2 3.8 8.9
Latin America & Caribbean 1.7 1.0 0.6 0.4 13.0 20.5 15.5 16.5
Near East 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 3.1 4.2 2.4 4.1
Newly Independent States 7.1 0.9 0.9 0.6 54.3 17.5 23.8 23.3
Sub-Saharan Africa 1.6 1.5 1.3 0.7 12.2 30.9 33.1 26.2
Others 0.2 0.1 0.1 .0 1.3 1.3 1.7 1.7
Total 13.1 4.9 4.0 2.6 100 100 100 100
Source: USDA. Percent calculations by GAO. Data for fiscal year 1996 cover part of the year.


GAO/T-NSIAD-96-217


(711221)


Page 20

















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