• TABLE OF CONTENTS
HIDE
 Appendix A: The economics...
 Appendix B: Value of water in the...
 Appendix C: Feasibility of ground...
 Appendix D: Demand for food
 Appendix E: Primary benefits
 Appendix F: Indirect benefits from...
 Appendix G: Human resources
 Appendix H: Project costs
 Appendix I: Tubewell drainage methods...














Group Title: Northern Indus Plains, regional plan: development and use of the water resources of the Indus Basin
Title: Northern Indus Plains, regional plan
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Full Citation
STANDARD VIEW MARC VIEW
Permanent Link: http://ufdc.ufl.edu/UF00055237/00002
 Material Information
Title: Northern Indus Plains, regional plan development and use of the water resources of the Indus Basin
Alternate Title: Development and use of the water resources of the Indus Basin
Physical Description: v. : ill. (some col., some folded), col. maps ; 29 cm.
Language: English
Creator: West Pakistan Water and Power Development Authority
Tipton and Kalmbach
Publisher: The Authority ;
The Authority
Tipton and Kalmbach
Place of Publication: Lahore
Denver
Publication Date: 1967-
Copyright Date: 1967
 Subjects
Subject: Water resources development -- West Pakistan -- Indus Basin   ( lcsh )
Genre: non-fiction   ( marcgt )
Spatial Coverage: Pakistan
 Notes
Statement of Responsibility: West Pakistan Water and Power Development Authority ; Tipton and Kalmbach, Inc.
 Record Information
Bibliographic ID: UF00055237
Volume ID: VID00002
Source Institution: University of Florida
Holding Location: University of Florida
Rights Management: All rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier: oclc - 05953802

Table of Contents
    Appendix A: The economics of development
        Page A-i
        Page A-ii
        Page A-1
        Page A-2
        Page A-3
        Page A-4
        Page A-5
        Page A-6
        Page A-7
        Page A-8
        Page A-9
        Page A-10
        Page A-11
        Page A-12
    Appendix B: Value of water in the Northern Indus Plains
        Page B
        Page B-i
        Page B-ii
        Page B-1
        Page B-2
        Page B-2a
        Page B-2b
        Page B-3
        Page B-4
        Page B-5
        Page B-6
        Page B-6a
        Page B-6b
        Page B-6c
        Page B-6d
        Page B-6e
        Page B-6f
        Page B-6g
        Page B-6h
        Page B-7
        Page B-8
    Appendix C: Feasibility of ground water mining
        Page C
        Page C-i
        Page C-ii
        Page C-1
        Page C-2
        Page C-3
        Page C-4
        Page C-5
        Page C-6
        Page C-7
        Page C-8
        Page C-9
        Page C-10
    Appendix D: Demand for food
        Page D
        Page D-i
        Page D-ii
        Page D-1
        Page D-2
        Page D-3
        Page D-4
        Page D-5
        Page D-6
        Page D-7
        Page D-8
        Page D-9
        Page D-10
        Page D-11
        Page D-12
        Page D-13
        Page D-14
        Page D-15
        Page D-16
    Appendix E: Primary benefits
        Page E
        Page E-i
        Page E-ii
        Page E-1
        Page E-2
        Page E-3
        Page E-4
        Page E-5
        Page E-6
        Page E-7
        Page E-8
        Page E-9
        Page E-10
        Page E-11
        Page E-12
        Page E-13
        Page E-14
    Appendix F: Indirect benefits from irrigation development
        Page E-15
        Page F-i
        Page F-ii
        Page F-1
        Page F-2
        Page F-3
        Page F-4
        Page F-5
        Page F-6
        Page F-7
        Page F-8
        Page F-9
        Page F-10
    Appendix G: Human resources
        Page G
        Page G-i
        Page G-ii
        Page G-1
        Page G-2
        Page G-3
        Page G-4
        Page G-5
        Page G-6
        Page G-6a
        Page G-6b
        Page G-6c
        Page G-6d
        Page G-7
        Page G-8
        Page G-9
        Page G-10
        Page G-10a
        Page G-10b
        Page G-11
        Page G-12
        Page G-12a
        Page G-12b
        Page G-13
        Page G-14
        Page G-15
        Page G-16
    Appendix H: Project costs
        Page H
        Page H-i
        Page H-ii
        Page H-1
        Page H-2
        Page H-3
        Page H-4
        Page H-5_6
        Page H-7
        Page H-8
        Page H-9
        Page H-10
        Page H-11
        Page H-12
        Page H-13
        Page H-14
        Page H-15
        Page H-16
        Page H-17
        Page H-18
        Page H-19
        Page H-20
        Page H-21
        Page H-22
        Page H-23
        Page H-24
        Page H-25
        Page H-26
    Appendix I: Tubewell drainage methods versus open and tile drain systems
        Page I
        Page I-i
        Page I-ii
        Page I-1
        Page I-2
        Page I-3
        Page I-4
        Page I-5
        Page I-6
        Page I-7
        Page I-8
        Page I-9
Full Text






CONTENTS


APPENDIX A

THE ECONOMICS OF DEVELOPMENT


INTRODUCTION . ...................... ..
SECTOR ANALYSIS ............... .... .....
THE AGRICULTURE SECTOR . . . . . . . . . . .
ALTERNATIVES .... ... ............. .. .... .
DEVELOPING THE REGIONAL PLAN . . . . . . . . .


Page

A-1
A-2
A-5
A-6
A-8


LIST OF FIGURES


Following
Page


Title


A-1 Food Production and Demand 1960 to 2000 . . . . . .


Figure
No.


A-10









THE ECONOMICS OF DEVELOPMENT


Dr. Clark N. Crain
Professor of Geography and Regional Development
University of Denver, Denver, Colorado



INTRODUCTION


Many economists and nationalists, in planning for stimulation of stagnant and unpro-
ductive economies, have noted the high level of productivity and economic well-being of the
industrialized nations and have equated development with industrialization. In their plans,
agriculture and other primary sectors have been ignored or denigrated while secondary and
even tertiary sectors have been emphasized. The U.S.S.R. commonly is used as an example
of a country where wide-spread development has occurred despite a relatively poor perfor-
mance in agriculture; however, there is reason to believe that the rate of Industrial develop-
ment in the U.S.S.R. is quite low when compared to the available resource base. Whereas
the current productivity of industrialized nations requires a very high capital industrial
Investment, their prosperity was not achieved by industrialization alone. In fact, economic
analysis indicates that Industrialization generally is a product of high economic productivity
rather than the cause of it.

Economic development takes place in what Rostow(1) has called "stages" of develop-
ment. The stages ensue from the use of resources and the production of goods and services in
such a way that surplus capital accrues. If development of a dominant sector can be acceler-
ated to a rate which results in capital flows to other sectors in sufficient volume to stimulate
the entire economy into similar growth, Rostow's "take-off" stage occurs, and revolutionary
advances and changes in the economy result. In modern Industrial developments these stages
primarily are technological in that new ways of utilizing raw materials and other resources
result in the emergence of different or new resources which then form a new economic base.
For example, before the advent of the steam engine and the associated industrial revolution,
coal was not an especially valuable resource, but following the industrial revolution coal
became the all-important industrial resource. Before the advent of atomic fission, uranium
minerals could not be considered effective resources, but following atomic fission they have
become extremely valuable.

Similarly with all economic development: modern, efficient utilization of the avail-
able resources of a nation should provide a measure of over-production which will allow
capital to be accumulated and thus prompt a more advanced stage of development. When
advantageously developed, utilization of resources such as water, soils, minerals, and the
like, may result in accumulation of much of the necessary capital, and may encourage


(1) Rostow, W. W., The Stages of Economic Growth A Non-Communist Manifesto,
Cambridge, University Press, 1963.









technological advance, economic and political organization, and the psychological impetus
necessary to propel an immature economy into the "take-off" stage. Once the economy arrives
at this stage, the rates of growth and the tempo of change are accelerated, and the stable
minimum production levels characteristic of underdeveloped economies are replaced by rapid
production increases.


SECTOR ANALYSIS


In most underdeveloped countries the agricultural economy operates on a stable base
more or less in balance with the national economy and population growth rate, a milieu in
which development and innovation usually are not adequately rewarded. This may be the
most critical consideration in developing an economic plan suitable for a newly developing
country.

In such an environment, normal anticipated expansions of the economy seldom over-
come the obstacles and barriers common to undeveloped countries. Wherever most of the
population depends primarily on a subsistence economy, technological advances available to
agriculture cannot be exploited adequately. The popular assumption that the principal require-
ment for improvement of primitive agricultural economies is education and demonstration has
been proved fallacious.

The principals in such an economy almost universally are reluctant to undergo the
necessary hardships of growth or to attempt to overcome by sheer momentum the inertia of
traditional attitudes and institutions. The risk is too great. From prolonged experience such
people know that their subsistence agriculture has the ability to keep them at a tolerable
living standard. Furthermore, improvement of production levels without a basic and substan-
tial change in the entire economic framework will result in most of the economic gain accruing
to the larger landholders and creditors. Low marginal returns from increased labor input are
matched by low marginal return from savings; together they deter incentive for substantial
increase in effort.

This is demonstrated in West Pakistan by the large numbers of cultivators who shirk the
increased effort required of improved practices and who keep their small savings at home rather
than investing them. Local changes have resulted in tremendous profits accruing to those
already above the subsistence level, thus widening the gap between the bulk of the farmers
and the relatively few who have excess capital.

A crisis develops within the economy if the relative productive capacity decreases
significantly. For example, soil deterioration is occurring and subsistence methods of farming
persist in West Pakistan, resulting in a decline in the relative ability of agriculture to support
the growing non-farm population.

As the production of surplus commodities decreases, the ability of the agriculture
sector to support even its own population decreases. Growing numbers move away from the
rural areas to the urban centers, since agriculture's ability to absorb population increases is
slight. In advanced economies, such population increases are supported by a rising level of
A-2









productivity. The technological ability to utilize manpower, capital, and other resources
provide opportunities to support the growing population. However, in the underdeveloped
agricultural economies, urban activities have not yet developed to the stage where they can
absorb a large influx of people.

Thus, rapid increases of population combined with deteriorating agricultural resources
intensify the crises of development and demand. Increases in population put a heavy burden
on urban resources, while at the same time increasing the demand for the products of agricul-
ture. Therefore, what was once a well-balanced and stable subsistence economy now faces
recurrent crises. This is an especially critical aspect of the economic problem in Pakistan,
where people are migrating from rural areas but insufficient alleviating expansion of urban
economic activities has taken place to absorb the new city dwellers.

As the gap between production and demand grows larger, it becomes increasingly
important for Pakistan to exploit available resources to the maximum. Such exploitation must
be rapid enough to provide excess capital for investment in other sectors of the economy.
Until exploitation of available resources reaches this stage, support of other less well-endowed
sectors of the economy will not contribute significantly to economic development. These
sectors will continue to be dependent upon foreign aid and imports and their improvement will
affect relatively small numbers of people. Furthermore, when a sector is developed out of
normal context with the economy, the profits and increased capital derived therefrom frequently
are drained off as export profits to foreign Investors, as payment of foreign debts and salaries
to foreign management, or for importation of raw materials or other products.

On the other hand, although primary production (agriculture, fishing, lumber, and
minerals) tends to be a low unit profit activity, it usually does not require as much capital
investment as industrial development, is less dependent upon foreign or absentee ownership or
management, utilizes more labor, and contributes directly to the Internal economy even
though its products may be subject to a somewhat capricious world market. Where production
of primary products exceeds demand, the excess sold on the world market produces earned
capital which Is more effective in stimulating the internal economy than foreign aid capital
Imported for the purchase of primary products which could be produced locally. Such use of
scarce capital is especially wasteful at this stage since it then is not available for development
of the potentially more productive primary sector.

Thus, in the early stages of growth underdeveloped economies must depend almost
exclusively upon primary development. Man's first economic task is to feed himself but with
no surplus product beyond that needed for consumption, economic growth is impossible. Only
to the extent that agriculture can be expanded to its fullest potential as rapidly as possible
can the growth of other sectors be anticipated. When labor produces a product in surplus of
the subsistence requirement, growth can be Initiated in other sectors and such sectors then
may become a viable part of the economy.

Nominal growth in agricultural production ordinarily obtained in underdeveloped nations
with rapidly growing populations may not equal the increase in demand and so the most urgent
marginal want is food. Under these circumstances, any new addition to the economic base
may be completely absorbed by this fundamental need. Since the increasing labor population
cannot be absorbed by agriculture, and unless production is greatly improved, the food
A-3









requirements of the growing population cannot be met, a subsistence economy is faced with a
serious dilemma. In failing to meet the increased demands for food, an inefficient and slow-
growing agriculture will negate or at least minimize outside efforts to Improve the economy.
As long as the primary effort must be in food production, growth in other sectors cannot be
effective in improving the total economy.

Although the preconditions for the "take-off" stage in West Pakistan include the con-
tribution of agriculture, this does not consist simply of the production of sufficient quantities
of food for the population. The transfer of capital accumulation from agriculture to industry
is essential. Historically, this transfer took place in some nations through direct taxation of
surplus agricultural income which then was reinvested in the form of "social overhead capital"
(roads, public schools, and other local government facilities). Equally important was the
transfer and eventual movement of such capital to non-farm sectors, Including migration of
labor to urban areas and the increased movement of agricultural profits into the economy.

Moderate increases in production obviously will be absorbed completely by the expan-
sion of local demand and the opportunities for capital earning and accumulation will be limited.
It is the rate as well as the extent of growth which is vital with respect to problems of develop-
ment. Programs which do not provide for the highest possible rate and level of development,
particularly of the primary sectors, will be minimizing the potential economic growth of the
country. The temptation to adopt half measures and to copy actions which may have been
successful in other countries is very great because quick, local profits can be made in this
manner by some sectors of the economy, particularly when improved irrigation, soil conditions,
seeds, or fertilizers are made available. This occurs because moderate increases in production
engender the emergence of other industries on a small scale as well as local response.
Increased local earnings, in turn, trigger responses from increased retail activities and the
development of service and small technical industries. When this happens, there is a great
temptation to assume that such local improvements may signal the jumping-off stage for the
entire national economy.

Anything short of full development of the total agriculture sector In West Pakistan
would fail to meet the realities of the problem. Local developments are half measures which
do not provide the full potential rate and level of growth demanded by the national economy.
This is due, in part, to the fact that such local development is limited to the richest areas and
most productive farmers. Less well-endowed areas thus fail to contribute and the national
effort becomes crippled.

On the other hand, if the total agriculture sector in West Pakistan can be stimulated
to develop to a high level In a short enough period of time, its influence on the total econ-
omy will be enormous. No available amount of outside aid could have as great an effect upon
the national economy. Rapid growth in agriculture would quickly provide capital for indus-
trial sectors much greater than could be achieved by diverting available funds directly to
improvement of industry. As agriculture becomes more productive, further capital inputs will
have a multiplier effect in supporting secondary industries and in promoting general economic
growth, with a sizeable portion of this growth feeding back in input-output fashion to increase
non-farm employment opportunities. Furthermore, the social distance between farm and non-
farm industries will tend to be lessened.


A-4









THE AGRICULTURE SECTOR


Agrarian economic conditions in West Pakistan are characterized by low standards of
living and low productivity. The problem of developing a sound agricultural economy is both
a physical and a human problem. It is a problem of land, of water, of people, and the inter-
actions among them. The main restraints not only are the water factors Inadequate supplies,
Ill-timed deliveries, restricted drainage, and the associated problems of salt-affected soils -
but also backward techniques, inadequate equipment and services, high man-to-land ratios,
low prices received by the farmer, and lack of incentives. Crops are inadequately irrigated,
especially in the winter season, ground-water levels remain high, and most of the cropped
area does not receive adequate water to prevent salinity of the soil. Thus, the water problems
not only limit the culturable area and crop yields but also contribute to soil deterioration.

A less obvious restraint to development Is the dire poverty of the peasant. His holding
is small, usually fragmented, and generally uneconomical to operate by modern standards.
The land tenure system, based largely on share-cropping, acts as a deterrent to improvement.
Fragmentation obviously is wasteful of land, labor, and In many cases capital, since it
becomes necessary to duplicate capital on some of the holdings; and share-cropping acts as a
restraint because risks and rewards seldom are shared equitably by tenant and landlord.

In this environment only subsistence-oriented and low cost agricultural techniques and
production patterns are possible. As a result, agriculture in the Indus Plains has remained
relatively stagnant; the returns from agriculture expressed as either yields per acre or total
annual product have not changed significantly over the past 40 to 50 years, while population
has increased three-fold.

Under existing conditions the farmer has developed his productive capability to the
highest possible level while still maintaining a degree of self-sufficiency. Unfortunately,
this level is low both with respect to world averages and to the potential of the soil-water-
climate resource base in Pakistan. As the current available resource base of West Pakistan is
overwhelmingly agricultural because the other primary resources such as lumber, minerals,
fuels, etc. do not have the known potential to provide a firm base for rapid and extensive
Increase in economic activity, the failure of agriculture Is doubly damaging to the economy.

The land, water, and people in the agriculture sector have capability to expand the
output of agricultural products to a level equal to or exceeding production in more developed
countries. Furthermore, agriculture comprises such a large percentage of the total economic
base of Pakistan that, if it were to develop to anything approaching its true potential, the
expanded productivity would have the effect of triggering activity In the other sectors. This
would occur not only as a result of direct benefits to agriculture and the resulting higher rate
of expendable income, but through increased tax revenues, higher investment levels, and so
on.

The low level of productivity is traceable largely to the pervasive lack of capital.
Hence, if the nation is to grow, if It is to Increase its output of food and to expand its scale
of manufacturing, clearly its principal economic task is to build up capital. The meager


A-5








productive capacity of bare hands and bent backs must be supplemented by the enormous
leverage of machines, power, and industrial equipment of every kind.

The impoverishing absence of capital Is by no means confined to agriculture. A sub-
sistence economy is characterized by lack of capital in most sectors. Per capital Income in
West Pakistan averages less than 476 rupees and so little remains above what is needed for
minimum levels of consumption. Consequently, the rate of saving is very low. Thus, there
exists a vicious circle of low saving-low investment-low income-low savings in the midst of
all the ills that poverty begets. To break this cycle, agriculture must be exploited to the
utmost and productivity must be raised to a high level.

Virtually all of the inputs which must be provided to permit the farmer to effect revo-
lutionary changes in productivity must come from government. The basic need clearly is an
adequate, dependable source of water at a reasonable cost. Not only is this essential for the
full utilization of soil and labor, it is the essential requirement for reversing the deterioration
of soils. Effective use of all other necessary inputs also depends on adequate water supplies.
Thus, the public sector must provide for (a) fertilizers, insecticides, machinery, and tractors;
(b) genetically advanced plants and animals; (c) schooling, agricultural extension services,
experimental and demonstration activities; (d) adequate credit facilities, land consolidation,
marketing and storage facilities, etc. nearly all factors over which the farmer has little or
no control. The key to economic growth in the farm sector is the quantity, quality, and
timeliness of these inputs at a cost that will ensure a profit to the farmers. These inputs can
be provided only by means of an overall policy and plan supported by the public sector.
Adequate and equitable distribution can be achieved so that even marginal areas can achieve
full development.


ALTERNATIVES


The failure of agriculture in West Pakistan to expand production sufficiently to meet
the increasing demands forces other sectors to make up the difference by drawing off some of
their profit-making potential for the purchase of food on the world market, or by otherwise
diverting funds which might otherwise be used for further development of these sectors. In
highly developed economies it is frequently worthwhile to divert resources from agriculture to
other, more productive sectors. However, at the present stage of development in Pakistan,
no sector is strong enough to accommodate the increasing agricultural demand-production
gap; thus, most sectors are held back and the entire economy is faced with an increasing
inability to cope with Its needs.

Under these conditions, increases in population and in demand do not stimulate the
economy, as in the U.S., Japan, and Western Europe, but instead increase the demand-
production gap in all fields, encouraging hoarding and profiteering and discouraging invest-
ment and innovation, with resultant stagnation. In developed economies, increased demands
are translated Into more growth in secondary and tertiary industries and services, thus further
stimulating the economy. However, in underdeveloped countries increases in demands relate
to basic items (food, soft goods, etc.) which are the very items most difficult to provide.


A-6









Resource analysis of West Pakistan indicates that agricultural production can be
developed to a level which will furnish a great impetus to the entire economy, permitting the
rapid development of other sectors. In other words, agricultural production, properly exploi-
ted, could provide the impetus necessary for the "take-off" stage of economic development.
High profits and rapid returns to local Investments then can be expected. This agricultural
development must, however, go beyond the marginal limits established by current economic
restraints.

It is recognized that economic development eventually must be balanced. In the long
run, agriculture and industry must advance together to provide markets for each other. An
uneven type of development may result in the creation of "white elephants" plants working
under capacity, and expensive ventures without an adequate market. Yet development plan-
ning need not seek continuous balance. Indeed a temporary lack of balance may stimulate
development rather than retard it. However, advances in agriculture, beyond those projected
in the regional plan, will not be possible without a commensurate advance in industry. In the
long run, a healthy and dynamic agriculture sector can exist only if the demand for its pro-
ducts is brisk and profitable, a situation which requires commensurate development of other
sectors.

Despite the sometimes gloomy picture with respect to the world market for agricultural
products, present trends of population growth, Increases in per capital demand, development
of large Industrial areas, and other forces apparent in the world today, make it increasingly
evident that the time is approaching when the movement of agricultural goods on the world
market will achieve a status comparable to other kinds of goods. Not only foodstuffs, but
raw materials will be increasingly in demand on the world market at prices which are profitable
for the producers. Those areas with high potential productivity in agriculture are relatively
limited, and many such areas are shrinking in size and importance as competition for land and
water in non-agriculture sectors develops. As this trend continues, areas, such as West
Pakistan which have a high potential productivity, will furnish more agricultural goods to the
world market. There is no doubt that agricultural surpluses will be marketable. Even though
some products may not draw premium prices on the world market, the advantage of exporting
over importing will be very important. Furthermore, after development Pakistan could afford
to develop specialized crops and products geared to a preferential market. This will be
possible when her agriculture sector is well developed and she can afford innovation and
experimentation. At that time Pakistan will be earning large amounts of foreign exchange,
thus providing the basis for further Internal development.

There is no question of the overall effect of optimum agricultural development on other
sectors of the economy. Not only will the sectors directly associated with agriculture, such
as marketing, processing, packaging, and transporting be affected, but through the incentives
provided by increased productivity and available capital, the entire economy of Pakistan will
develop and expand.


A-7









DEVELOPING THE REGIONAL PLAN


To achieve optimum agricultural development, firm decisions must be made regarding
the basic goals and objectives involved and the best means of obtaining them. This required
preparation of a regional plan which provides the framework within which all aspects of the
development are integrated. The plan had to be tailor-made for Pakistan.

In regional planning, however, the peculiarities of location frequently are overlooked:
formulae for development often are devised using historical or current examples and inappli-
cable theoretical concepts. The United States commonly is used as a model. However, when
the United States was developing, a frontier society, isolated from foreign involvement, was
free to exploit enormous primary resources, including extensive areas of unused land, forests,
and minerals. In contrast, Pakistan is attempting development in a context of high speed
communications, deep involvement with her neighbors, and with limited primary resources.
Furthermore, Pakistan is at the threshold of development at a time of almost calamitous popu-
lation growth, both locally and world-wide. Whereas population growth in the United States
could be absorbed by expansion into virgin land by exploiting forests and minerals, Pakistan
has little ability to absorb a larger population in this manner.

A complication which may change the development perspective is that accumulated
grain surpluses in the United States are almost exhausted and Canada has committed her sur-
pluses to the U.S.S.R. for the next 5 years. Thus, the areas where most of the new population
and the new demand will occur India and China are left with no visible major sources for
import excepting reduced surpluses which may be available from the United States.

When planners use historical examples for models, the resulting development plans may
not be applicable. This has been a common fault with the plans of some developing countries
where massive efforts were made primarily through outside aid to bring about significant and
viable development. Confusion and chaos results when development plans fail to provide full
consideration for the unique historical and regional characteristics of a country.

West Pakistan, perhaps the largest single area of irrigated land in the world, involving
over 20 million acres in Pakistan's Punjab alone, lacks other resources such as minerals, fuels,
forests, etc. But this is more than compensated for by deep, rich soils, hot, dry climate,
potentially adequate supplies of water, and a large, intelligent, capable rural population.
All development plans must develop within this context. Economic development plans that
do not take these facts into account will fail or at best meet very limited success.

Yet some of the proposals that have been made for development of the Punjab have
given little or no consideration to local uniqueness. For example, goals have been set up
apparently based upon exploitation of resources not available to Pakistan at the present time.
Fortunately, it is now generally accepted in Pakistan that extensive industrial development
oriented to export is inappropriate for the present. Obviously, it is incongruous to emphasize
heavy industries at a time when Pakistan must import food. Four major elements are lacking
for heavy industrial development: (1) basic mineral resources, (2) an economy that can
support heavy industry, (3) capital, and (4) adequate reserves of technical and managerial


A-8









skills. At the same time, primary resources for full development of the agriculture sector
exist in abundance.

Furthermore, all of the other sectors combined account for no more than 50 percent of
the Gross National Product. Of this percentage, a significant portion is directly related to
agriculture, so that only about 20 to 25 percent of the Gross National Product is produced by
non-agriculture sectors. With agriculture thus dominating the economy and since other
resources are not available currently to promote rapid economic growth, the prime importance
of fast massive agricultural development is obvious. Some 70 percent of the people are using
perhaps 45 percent of the agricultural resources without contributing significantly to the
national economy. With imports of food grains increasing rapidly (from about 387 million
rupees in 1962 to an estimated 800 million rupees in 1965), more and more of the limited funds
available are required for food and thus are not available for internal development. And so
West Pakistan must look to agriculture to reduce dependence upon imports and foreign aid.
In fact, it appears that unless the agriculture sector does develop rapidly, the dependence of
Pakistan upon foreign aid and imports will increase for an indefinite period.

Since the only means by which dependence upon imports and foreign aid can be alle-
viated is the development of agriculture to the point of providing capital accumulation for
use in other sectors of the economy, it is quite obvious that massive expansion of agricultural
production is required. The purpose of such development is less to establish a long-range
agricultural capability than it is to establish a capital formation and to generate economic
development in other sectors.

The unique factor in Pakistan's resource base is that her agricultural production poten-
tial is substantially greater than the world average equalling or exceeding that of highly
developed agricultural areas such as California. She has no other resource base capable of
supporting the development of a viable economy; therefore, the low level of productivity
accentuates the problem and gives it a greater sense of urgency.

It is clear that project-by-project planning must be abandoned in favor of regional
program planning. The private sector should be nurtured by means of appropriate public pro-
grams but should not be relied on as a major force for development. Only through a public
program is it possible to develop the entire economy adequately. Technically speaking,
individual projects are logical units for development, but each project must be an integral
part of a complete regional plan because only through regional improvement of agriculture
can capital be accumulated and made available for other sectors. Private development is
strictly subsidiary although it must contribute to the general development.

The accompanying graph (Figure A-1) demonstrates what the regional plan can
accomplish. It shows that, at projected growth rates without a continuing development pro-
gram, agriculture will not contribute significantly to the economy although it will meet the
regional demand for food until about 1985. However, the rate of development under the plan
will markedly exceed the internal agriculture requirements by about 1975. Thereafter, agri-
culture will provide a powerful impetus to the economy, saving on imports and earning capital
which will be available for other sectors.


A-9









At the present time, the demand for agricultural products exceeds production by at
least 800 million rupees per year. It is assumed that in the next decade or two the demand
curve will increase at a rate of 3 percent per year. With the plan productivity will increase
about 15 percent per year for the first 5 years in each of the newly constructed project areas,
and the overall increase for the entire region will average about 7 percent from 1970 to the
year 2000. Figure A-1 shows that after the production curve crosses the demand curve, for
some years production will grow faster than demand. It is in this period that significant
amounts of capital can be accumulated. Through proper planning, taxation, controlled credits,
etc., can be used to direct this capital to the non-agriculture sectors of the economy, provid-
ing them with the starting impetus and the support later necessary for self-maintenance.

Thus, not only will capital become available to other sectors, but both direct and
indirect benefits accruing from increasing agricultural productivity will improve internal
markets for all other sectors. This will create the desired input-output relationships among the
various economic sectors required for a growing, viable economy.

With this rate of growth in the agriculture sector, the costs of water production and
land use may increase, and at the same time effective demand for land and water by other
sectors of the economy will increase. Gradually competition plus higher costs will result in
progressive use of land and water for productive non-agriculture uses while at the same time
higher costs will result in more efficient agricultural production, utilizing less land more
effectively, and changing the cropping pattern as the need arises. Agriculture can be self-
programmed to continue to meet the food demands on larger and more efficient units, thus
freeing land, labor, and capital for production in other sectors of the economy. As the
economy begins to reach self-sustaining maturity, land values for non-agricultural use will
begin to exceed the value for agricultural use and the non-agriculture sectors of the economy
will take over a larger and larger share of the productive efforts of the country.

The paradox is that, with increasing efficiency, agriculture becomes more productive
and requires fewer people, thus freeing them for other activities which agriculture then must
help support. Only from profits made by over-production in agriculture can other sectors
provide work for the superfluous cultivators. Only by means of the massive and rapid develop-
ment of the agriculture sector can the problems of economic development be met. There
appears to be no alternative for Pakistan, for it is unlikely that either foreign aid or efforts
directed at industrialization can provide the massive internal stimulus required to solve the
economic problems of the country.


A-10












Production with
Development Program


251-


20 -


Surplus with
Development -
Program -- -


15'-


r iUUL I lVn


Medium
Demand''











without continue


ing


uevelopmenT program
(includes ongoing projects)


NORTHERN INDUS PLAINS
FOOD PRODUCTION AND DEMAND 1960 to 2000
(Excluding Livestock Products)


1975


1980
YEARS


1985


1990


1960


1965


1970


1995


2000


'A f% ------




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CONTENTS


APPENDIX B

VALUE OF WATER IN THE NORTHERN INDUS PLAINS


Page

VALUE OF WATER IN THE NORTHERN INDUS PLAINS . . . . . B-1


LIST OF TABLES

Table
No. Title Page

B-1 Estimated Net Value of Agricultural Production Under Tandlianwala
Distributary for Various Levels of Development . . . . B-2
B-2 Values of Constants in Equations of Water Value Applicable to
Tandlianwala Distributary . . . . . . . . . B-4
B-3 Marginal Water Values for Tandlianwala Distributary, Rechna Doab. B-4
B-4 Annual Values of Production, Irrigation Supplies, and Value of
Water . . . . . . . . . . . . . B-5
B-5 Values of Constants in Equations of Water Value Applicable to the
Northern Indus Plains . . . . .. . . . . . B-5
B-6 Future Value of Water in the Northern Indus Plains . . . . . B-7


LIST OF FIGURES

Figure Following
No. Title Page

B-1 Average and Marginal Value of Water, Tandlianwala Distributary -
Rechna Doab .. . .. . . . .. . .. . . . B-2
B-2 Marginal Value of Water .................... B-6
B-3 Total Value of Water, Agricultural Zone I . . . . . . B-6
B-4 Average and Marginal Value of Water, Agricultural Zone I . . . B-6
B-5 Future Regional Value of Water . . . . . . . . . B-6









VALUE OF WATER
IN THE NORTHERN INDUS PLAINS


Given an environment with a year-around growing season, favorable soils, people
with an agricultural heritage, and a virtually unlimited demand for agricultural products, it
is axiomatic that the value of water is greater than the cost of any reasonable means re-
quired for its development. Nevertheless, it is useful to the planner to have a relative idea
of the value of water, and in particular the manner in which its value changes with suc-
cessive levels of development. Appraisals of the value of irrigation water in the Northern
Indus Plains under various circumstances are developed in this appendix.

Three stages of development are considered: (1) the present situation; (2) the
interim situation, after the cultivators have adjusted to an increased water supply but before
additional inputs have become important factors of production, and (3) the future when most
of the associated inputs have been integrated into farming practices.

The term "value of water" as used herein is the gross monetary value of agricultural
production (at point of use or sale) less all costs of production except that of the irrigation
water itself. This is synonomous with "net value of agricultural production" before ac-
counting for the cost of water. Defined in this manner, "value of water" reflects the value
of all other agricultural inputs such as fertilizer, seed, pesticides, management practices,
labor, etc., that contribute to the gross value of the irrigated crop. As the cost of all
inputs except family labor are accounted for in determining the net value of production,
the latter represents the upper limit of the value of water for irrigation. "Marginal value
of water" is defined as the net value increment of agricultural production attributable to a
unit of additional water. "Average value of water" is the net value of agricultural pro-
duction divided by the total volume of water used to attain that production. In this dis-
cussion all measures of value are, except where otherwise noted, related to the culturable
acreage (Rs./acre) or to the quantity of water delivered at the head of the watercourse
(Rs./af at hwc) on an annual basis for the two (summer and winter) cropping periods. In
general, water quantities are expressed in terms of acre feet per culturable acre per year
at the head of the watercourse, or simply as a water delta (A) in feet depth of water per
year.

Little quantitative data are available for determining the value of water in the
Northern Indus Plains. For the present it is necessary to rely entirely upon estimates of
crop yields, crop values, and costs of production. Similarly, values of water at future
levels of development must be predicated on estimates of most of the elements involved in
the analysis including demand and total price structure.

The method of estimating the value of water can best be illustrated by analysis of
a specific case considered to be representative of the Northern Indus Plains. The area com-
manded by Tandlianwala Distributary in lower Rechna Doab has been studied in detail and
pertinent estimated values are summarized in Table B-1.









Table B-1


ESTIMATED NET VALUE OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION UNDER
TANDLIANWALA DISTRIBUTARY FOR VARIOUS LEVELS OF DEVELOPMENT
(Culturable area 125,000 acres)

Net Crop
Period Water Supply Value Delta (A) Value of Water
(a.f./year) (1,000 Rs.) (ft./year @ hwc) (Rs./acre) (Rs./a.f.)
Present 254,300 22,941 2.05 183 90
Interim 470,000 48,477 3.76 387 103
Future 470,000 94,725 3.76 758 202

Figure B-1 relates value of water in rupees per acre foot to depth of annual water
applications for this case. The points Ao, Ai, and Af represent the average value of water at
the head of the watercourse as derived from the data in Table B-1 under present, interim, and
future conditions, respectively. Considering the effect on production of variations in water
quantity at each stage of development, it is possible to derive the relationships between depth
of water application and the marginal and average values of water as previously defined.

Present irrigation supplies are inadequate, and the cultivators tend to spread the
available water over as large an area as possible to maximize crop production per unit of
water. Obviously when the land available for irrigation is unlimited but the water supply is
restricted, the most economic allocation of water is that which results in the maximum average
value of water. Assuming that cultivators are obtaining the greatest possible return from their
water, the point A- on Figure B-1 represents the maximum average value of water under pre-
sent conditions. If additional water supplies are made available and land is unlimited, most
of the water will be used to increase the area under irrigation, thus maintaining essentially
the same average value of water. It follows, therefore, that point Ap on Figure B-1 also
indicates the marginal value of water under present conditions.
The maximum average depth of water which can be used beneficially in the Northern
Indus Plains is estimated to be approximately 6 feet per year. Additional water beyond this
adds little to production and the marginal value of water for irrigation becomes zero. As the
response of production to an increase in depth of water application generally approximates a
quadratic function (an "S" curve within the relevant range), it can be assumed that the marginal
value of water is linearly related to depth of application. Thus, the present marginal value
of increased applications of water can be represented by a straight line passing through the
point Ap and the point of zero value at a 6-foot depth of water application. This relationship
can be expressed by an equation of the form:
M = D 2BA . . . (Rs./a.f.) (1)
in which M is the marginal value, A is the depth of water application, and D and B are con-
stants derived from the data.


B-2




FIGURE B-I


2 3 4
DEPTH OF WATER AT HW C FEET/YEAR


AVERAGE AND MARGINAL VALUE OF WATER
TANDLIANWALA DISTRIBUTARY- RECHNA DOAB


I 00






75












From the equation for marginal value, it is possible to derive relationships which express
the total value, T, and average value, A, of water in terms of depth of water application:
A = D BA- C/A . . . (Rs./a. f.) (2)

T = DA BA2 C . . .. (Rs./acre) (3)
in which C is constant of integration(). The curved line E-F on Figure B-1 represents the
present average value of water as determined in this manner.
Following the completion of a reclamation project, the average value of water will
increase owing to a combination of: (1) increased water applications; (2) increased cropping
intensity; (3) a modest increase in agricultural inputs; and (4) greater flexibility in choice
of cropping patterns.
Although the total area under irrigation will increase as a result of a greatly augmen-
ted water supply, the increase will not be uniform. On many farms the increase in irrigated
area will be more or less in proportion to the increase in water supply. On other farms,
where the land area is limited, most of the water will be used to provide optimum crop water
requirements. Hence, for a large region water applications will be in excess of the amount
which maximizes the average net value of production; and, therefore, the average value of
water, Ai, will be somewhat less than the.potential maximum average value of water.

At some interim stage of development, following completion of project construction
but prior to the time the effect of other inputs is highly significant, the marginal value of
water is equivalent to the increase in net value of production primarily attributable to the
incremental water supply. Point Mi on Figure B-1, determined in this manner, represents the
marginal value of water at this intermediate stage of development. Assuming, as in the pre-
vious case, that the marginal value of water is zero at a depth of application of 6 feet per
year, the marginal value for various depths of application is given by the line passing through
Mi, and from this is derived the curve for average value of water, G-H. As the effective
land area is a function of the double-cropping potential, the extent to which increased water
applications cause the curve of average value to descend below its maximum depends on the
factors that restrict double cropping. Studies indicate that few marginal factors are effective
up to a cropping intensity of about 150 percent. Above this level, timing of operations,
bullock power, and other restraints become quite influential.

With a given depth of water application, the net value of production will increase as
technological advancement and other inputs improve productivity. Following the logic
described above, the uppermost set of curves on Figure B-1 portray the marginal and average
value of water relationships for the future, when all beneficial agricultural inputs have been
integrated into farming practices.

The constants in the equations for marginal, total, and average values of water for
Tandlianwala Distributary as determined by the foregoing method of analysis are given in
Table B-2.


(1) Total value is derived first by integrating the expressions T = MdA, to obtain:
T = DA BA2 C
Average value per unit of water is A = T/A .
B-3









Table B-2


VALUES OF CONSTANTS IN EQUATIONS OF
WATER VALUE APPLICABLE TO TANDLIANWALA DISTRIBUTARY


(1) M
Equations: (2) A
(3) T


= D 2BA
= D BA C/A
= DA -BA2 C


D

137
232
487


B

11.4
19.4
40.6


Although the derivation of the foregoing equations may be more refined than the data and
assumptions warrant, the results conform reasonably well with point estimates of water value
within the applicable range of water applications. These equations are particularly useful
for illustrating changes in the marginal value of water with increasing depth of application as
development progresses. This is shown by the following data pertaining to Tandlianwala
Distributary:

Table B-3

MARGINAL WATER VALUES FOR TANDLIANWALA DISTRIBUTARY
(Values in rupees per foot)


Period


Present
Interim
Future


Depth of Water in feet per year at hwc
2 3 4 5


90
155
--


70
115
245


45
75
160


It is evident that the most significant contribution of augmented water supplies is
that they will provide an opportunity for optimum use of other inputs and technological
advances. As a result, water will be much more valuable in the future than it is at present.

The average value of water for each of the four agricultural zones of the Northern
Indus Plains have been estimated in the same manner. The results are listed in Table B-4.


Period

Present
Interim
Future


C

48
211
497










Table B-4


ANNUAL VALUE OF PRODUCTION, IRRIGATION
SUPPLIES, AND VALUE OF WATER
(By agricultural zones)


Net Value Irrigation Average Value
Zone of Production Deliveries (hwc) of Water (hwc)
Present Future Present Future Present Future
(Rs./acre) (Rs./acre) (ft./year) (ft./year) (Rs./a.f.) (Rs./a.f.)


687
645
595
604


1.19
1.25
1.61
1.61


3.36
3.59
3.75
3.70


204
181
160
163


Figure B-2 shows the estimated present and future marginal values of water for the
four zones. The values of the constants in the equations for margainal, total, and average
values of water were determined from the relationships and are summarized in Table B-5.


Table B-5


VALUES OF CONSTANTS IN EQUATIONS OF
WATER VALUE APPLICABLE TO THE NORTHERN INDUS PLAINS


(1) M = D-2BA
Equations: (2) A = D BA2 C/A
(3) T = DA BA2-C


Period and Zone


Present:





Future:


D


104
109
72
56


425
402
377
378


B


8.6
9.1
6.0
4.7


35.5
33.5
31.5
31.5


C


12
14
16
12


342
363
372
365


B-5









Figure B-3 shows the relationship for Zone I between total value of water, expressed
in rupees per culturable acre and depth of application for both the present and the future
conditions.

It is interesting to note how the value of water increases when additional supplies
become available and adequate drainage is provided. Figure B-4 shows curves of estimated
average and marginal values of water for Zone I for present and future conditions. When
project construction is completed, the full water supply will be immediately available to the
cultivator although he may not use all of it effectively for sometime. If the augmented
supply is used on present acreages and other inputs are not increased significantly, the
marginal and average values of water will decrease along the curves which describe the
present situation. If the augmented supply is used only to increase the cropping intensity
and other inputs are not increased/ the marginal and average values of water will not change.
On individual farms either of these situations may prevail for a time, but as the cultivators
gain confidence in the adequacy and timeliness of the tubewell augmented supplies, they
will begin to integrate additional inputs such as fertilizers and improved seeds into their
farming operations. Accordingly, the general pattern of change of marginal and average
value of water in response to increased water applications, the value of water will increase
approximately as indicated by the curve A-C, and in the future the value of water will be
as shown by the upper set of curves.

Comparison of the curves of marginal value shown on Figure B-2 with the values
shown in Table B-5 indicates that in the future the differences in the marginal value of
water among the several zones will not be significant. Single-valued functions, therefore,
can be developed that will adequately represent future conditions in the Northern Indus
Plains. The functions adopted for this purpose, and depicted on Figure B-5, are:

Marginal value Mf = 396 66 A f . . (Rs./a.f.)
Average value Af = 396 33 A f 362/Af . . (Rs./a.f.)
Total value Tf = 396 A f 33 A 2f 362 . . (Rs./acre)


The differences in marginal value of water among the four agricultural zones is
primarily due to differences in the depths of water required for full irrigation water require-
ments; these, in turn, are affected mainly by differences in the amounts of effective preci-
pitation.

Table B-6 lists the estimated future value of water for the four agricultural zones of
the Northern Indus Plains as derived from the above relationships:




FIGURE B-2


2 3 4-
DEPTH OF WATER AT HWC FEET/YEAR


MARGINAL VALUE OF WATER




FIGURE B-3


DEPTH OF WATER AT HW C FEET /YEAR


TOTAL VALUE OF WATER
AGRICULTURAL ZONE I







FIGURE B-4


Marginal Value

Average Value


DEPTH OF WATER AT HWC -FEET/YEAR


AVERAGE AND MARGINAL VALUE OF WATER
AGRICULTURAL ZONE I




FIGURE B-5


DEPTH OF WATER AT HWC FEET/YEAR


FUTURE REGIONAL VALUE OF WATER
UNDER FUTURE CONDITIONS IN THE NORTHERN ZONE









Table B-6


FUTURE VALUE OF WATER
IN THE NORTHERN INDUS PLAINS
(Cropping intensity at about 150 percent)


Average Depth of Average
Zone Water Application Marginal Value Total Value Value
(ft./year) (Rs./a.f.) (Rs./acre) (Rs./a.f.)

I 3.36 174 595 177
II 3.59 159 635 177
III 3.75 148 660 176
IV 3.70 152 652 176

It should be noted that the marginal values of water are greater in Zones I and II
than in Zones Ill and IV, indicating that the supplemental ground water supplies will yield
higher returns in Zones I and II than in Zones ill and IV. The same conclusion also can be
drawn from the following considerations:

1. The consumptive use requirements of crops is lower in the northern portion of
the region, because the mean annual temperatures are lower and the
humidities are higher in the north.

2. Rainfall is higher in the north; hence, irrigation water requirements
are lower.

3. Total conveyance losses including evaporation increase with distance
from the point of diversion; hence, the delivery of a unit of water in
the north entails less total loss than its delivery farther south.

4. Because of somewhat more favorable climatic conditions, the yield
of most, but not all, crops is higher in the northern part of the region.

5. Soil textures are generally finer, and hence, water holding capacities
and irrigation efficiencies are higher in the north than in the south.

The general reclamation policy, within which the regional plan has been devel-
oped, specifies that all areas which can be served with ground water supplies should be
developed to achieve the target cropping intensity of 150 percent. As evident from
Table B-6, at this cropping intensity the future marginal value of water per acre foot will
vary from 174 rupees in Zone I to 148 rupees in Zone III. In theory, therefore, the net
value of production of the entire Northern Indus Plains could be increased by increasing
the supply of water in Zone I and reducing it in Zone III, as the value of production
gained by the incremental increase in water in Zone I is more than the value of production
lost by an identical decrease in water in Zone III. For the entire region, maximum value
or maximum return from water would be achieved if the marginal value of water were


B-7









everywhere equal. Hence, it can be concluded that the optimum allocation of water in the
Northern Indus Plains would result in a cropping intensity greater than 150 percent in Zones
I and II and less than 150 percent in Zones III and IV. Alternatively, it can be concluded
that as the differences in the marginal value of water are relatively small, the adopted tar-
get intensities are reasonably close to optimum in all zones. Furthermore, the sociological
benefits derived from treating all zones equally override the small added economic benefits
that would be associated with the optimum allocation of water between the four agricultural
zones. This reasoning is particularly important when considering present and future alloca-
tions of water between the Upper and Lower Indus regions -- i.e., the fact that the mar-
ginal value of water is considerably less in the Lower Indus region than in the Northern Indus
Plains has had little influence on the allocation of water between these regions.






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CONTENTS


APPENDIX C


FEASIBILITY OF GROUND WATER MINING


INTRODUCTION . . . . . . .. . . . . . . .
COST OF WATER VERSUS DEPTH TO WATER TABLE . . . . . . .
COST OF DEPLETION
CONTINUOUS MINING . . . . . . . . . . .
ONE-TIME MINING ....................... .
SUMMARY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .


Page

C-1
C-1

C-6
C-8
C-9


LIST OF TABLES


Title


C-1 Cost of Water Pumped from Various Depths . . . . . . .
C-2 Comparison of Cost of Tubewell Water for Various Rates of Pumpage
and Depths to Ground Water Table . . . . . . . .
C-3 Cost and Value of Water Per Acre Foot after 50 Years of Pumping . . .
C-4 Net Value of Production after 50 Years . . . . . . . .


Page

C-3

C-4
C-5
C-5


Table
No.








FEASIBILITY OF GROUND WATER MINING


INTRODUCTION


The development plan for the Northern Indus Plains involves lowering the water table
in the Nonsaline Zones to depths significantly below the minimum levels needed for drainage
of the irrigated lands, and in some areas to depths lower than the levels which existed prior
to Irrigation. Withdrawals of ground water below the level required to control waterlogging
is sometimes termed "mining." In aquifers with no recharge potential, mining can be con-
sidered as the withdrawal of any water from the water table. In aquifers such as those of the
Northern Indus Plains, where the recharge potential from irrigation throughout is relatively
high, mining occurs only if ground-water withdrawals exceed the recharge potential. If
withdrawals are equal to the recharge from Irrigation activities, the ground-water tables will
descend slowly to about the levels which existed prior to irrigation. It should be noted that
removal of the water which has been stored in the aquifer above the pre-irrigation ground-
water level is not mining an original resource, but rather is the recovery of surface supplies
that were stored in the aquifer as a consequence of irrigation.

An exact definition of mining is unimportant in considering the economics of the
matter in that the problem simply becomes one of determining, first whether it is economic
to lower the water table below the depth required for drainage, and second, how far the
water table can be lowered before the limit of economic feasibility is reached. This is
analogous to determining the upper economic limit of ground-water development, assuming,
of course, that all the ground water that can be developed by irrigation tubewells can be
used beneficially. Therefore, in the following discussion any pumping which causes the
water table to descend is referred to as mining, even though, from a hydrologic point of
view, true mining of the aquifer may not be taking place.

Two basic issues are involved. One is the increase in the cost of pumping from
greater depths. The other involves the pros and cons of depletion of a resource in the present
or near future at the expense of the use of this resource in the more distant future. Analysis
of the first question is straightforward, whereas the depletion of a resource involves subjective
considerations as well as calculable costs and benefits. Only the objective considerations
are discussed herein.


COST OF WATER VERSUS DEPTH TO WATER TABLE


It is a popular misconception that lowering the water table to a depth below that
required for drainage greatly increases the cost of tubewell water. This is a fallacy because:
(1) the lower the water table the greater the proportion of the potential recharge that will be
recovered, and (2) energy costs comprise only a portion of the total cost of pumping.


C-1









Inflow to the aquifer (recharge) in one area cannot be withdrawn (pumped) from
another area unless a gradient or differential hydraulic head exists between the two areas.
According to the Development Plan for the Northern Indus Plains, tubewells will be more or
less uniformly distributed over the region and will withdraw ground water at a fairly uniform
rate over large areas. Although the recharge originating from throughput of water applied to
the lands also will be relatively uniformly distributed, the other major components of recharge
consisting of leakage from canals, links, rivers, and similar line sources which account for
40 to 60 percent of the total recharge, is not uniformly distributed. If the water table is
maintained at shallow depths throughout the area, much of the recharge from these line sources
will be lost non-beneficially through evaporation. It has been argued that higher ground-
water levels in the vicinity of line sources reduce seepage losses, leaving a larger proportion
of the surface supply for distribution. However, owing to the anisotropy of the alluvium,
seepage losses from canals, links, and rivers are not significantly reduced until the lands in
their vicinity are virtually waterlogged and then non-beneficial losses are high. Therefore,
by establishing a gradient between the sources of recharge and the areas of pumping, non-
beneficial losses will be reduced and a greater proportion of the potential recharge can be
recovered for beneficial use.

The fixed costs of a tubewell installation -- amortization, depreciation, operation,
and maintenance -- form a substantial part of the total expenditure for tubewell water. For
a given tubewell installation these costs are essentially constant irrespective of the volume
of water pumped; in fact, in a typical case the greater volume of water pumped more than
offsets the higher fixed costs resulting in lower total costs per acre-foot of pumped water.
Furthermore, the total cost is not greatly increased by providing an installation capable of
withdrawing water from a greater depth.

The foregoing principles can be illustrated by considering a typical tubewell install-
ation serving a gross area of 850 acres in Lower Rechna Doab. In this particular area, canal
supplies delivered to the watercourse average about 1.42 feet depth of water per year on the
gross area. Total recharge from the canal supplies is estimated to be the equivalent of 54
percent of the volume delivered to the head of the watercourse where the tubewell water is
discharged. Recharge as recirculation of the tubewell water is about 22 percent of the total
pumpage, and recharge from other sources is conservatively estimated to be 0.2 feet per year.

Three alternative pumping rates related to the gross area commanded by the tubewell
are considered and designated as Cases A, B, and C. For Case A, annual recharge exceeds
annual pumpage by 0.35 feet; for Case B, pumpage is equal to recharge; and for Case C,
annual pumpage exceeds recharge by 0.35 feet. Taking into account the characteristics of
the aquifer, the ground-water table will respond about as follows:

Case A Will stabilize at a depth of about 15 feet within a few years.

Case B Will stabilize at a depth of about 50 feet in 50-plus years.

Case C Will descend at a rate of 1.4 feet or more per year and be at a depth of
about 90 feet after 50 years of pumping.


C-2









A tubewell designed to pump a greater annual volume of water will have a higher
capital cost, both because its rated capacity will be greater and it will have a greater depth.
Taking into account all of the foregoing variables the cost of tubewell water under the three
cases is estimated to be as shown in Table C-1.

Table C-1

COST OF WATER PUMPED FROM VARIOUS DEPTHS

Cost of Tubewell
Case Depth to Water Table Water at HWC
(feet) (rupees/acre foot)


15.75
17.95
22.60


The derivation of these values is shown in Table C-2. It should be noted that these
costs are for pumping from ground-water levels that prevail after 50 years. Thus, the average
cost of tubewell water over the 50-year period will be less than indicated for Cases B and C.


C-3







Table C-2

COMPARISON OF COST OF TUBEWELL WATER FOR VARIOUS
RATES OF PUMPAGE AND DEPTHS TO GROUND WATER TABLE

CASE A CASE B CASE C
Pumpage Pumpage Pumpage
Less Than Equals More Than
No. Description Unit Recharge Recharge Recharge

A. Water Supplies and Recharge:
1. Canal supplies @ HWC ft./yr. 1.42 1.42 1.42
2. Tubewell supplies@ HWC ft./yr. 0.79 1.24 1.69
3. Total supplies@ HWC ft./yr. 2.21 2.66 3.11
4. Total recharge ft./yr. 1.14 1.24 1.34
5. Pumpage less recharge ft./yr. -0.35 0 0.35

B. Characteristics of Tubewells:
1. Area under tubewell command acres 850 850 850
2. Tubewell capacity cusecs 3.0 3.5 4.0
3. Depth to W.T. after 50 years feet 15 50 90
4. Maximum pump lift feet 36 75 118
5. Annual pumpage acre feet 670 1,050 1,440
6. Annual utilization factor percent 31 41 49

C. Costs:
1. Capital cost of tubewell rupees 63,200 78,000 101,700
2. Annual cost:
c. Fixed costs and O & M rupees 7,710 9,520 12,410
b. Power costs rupees 2,850 9,330 20,160
c. Total annual cost rupees 10,560 18,850 32,570
D. Cost of Tubewell Water:
1. Fixed costs Rs./a.f. 11.50 9.05 8.60
2. Power costs Rs./a.f. 4.25 8.90 14.00
3. Total cost Rs./a.f. 15.75 17.95 22.60

Explanatory Notes:

Line No.
S- 4. Recharge = 54 percent of canal supplies at HWC plus 22 percent of tubewell
supplies at HWC plus 0.2 ft./yr.
B 1. Typical area of chak served by one tubewell.
4. Depth to water table plus drawdown of 6 ft./cs. plus hydraulic losses and
discharge elevation of 1 ft./cs.
5. Line A-2 times 850 acres.
6. Annual pumpage divided by annual capability of tubewell.
C 2a. Fixed costs token cs 12.2 percent of capital cost.
2b. Based on wire to water efficiency of 60 percent and energy cost of 0.07 Rs./kwh.

C-4









Although the total cost of water increases with depth of pumping, even after 50 years
of pumping the costs of tubewell water are well below its present value and less than 15 per-
cent of the future value of water, as indicated in Table C-3. Of more significance is the
net value of production after deducting the cost of water in each case as shown in Table C-4.

Table C-3

COST AND VALUE OF WATER PER ACRE FOOT
AFTER 50 YEARS OF PUMPING

Average Present Future
Total Cost of Average Average
Case Water Supplies Tubewell Water Value of Water(l) Value of Water(1)
(ft./yr. @ HWC) (Rs./a.f. @ HWC) (Rs./a.f. @ HWC) (Rs./a.f. @ HWC)

A 2.21 16 65 159
B 2.66 18 63 172
C 3.11 23 60 177

(1) As derived in Appendix B.

Table C-4

NET VALUE OF PRODUCTION AFTER 50 YEARS
(Per gross acre calculated at watercourse head)

Total Total Total
Total Tubewell Cost of Cost of Value Net Value
Water Water Ground Irrigation of Water(2) of Production
Case Supplies Supplies Water Supplies(1) (Rs./acre) (Rs./acre)
(ft./yr.) (ft./yr.) (Rs./acre) (Rs./acre) Present Future Present Future


2.21
2.66
3.11


0.79
1.24
1.69


352
458
550


330
427
502


(1) Including charge of 6 rupees per acre foot for canal supplies.
(2) As derived in Appendix B.


At present values, the additional water made available by "mining" results in an
increase in the net value of production of Rs. 14 per acre in Case B, and Rs. 17 per acre in
Case C. This would amount to an annual gain to the economy of approximately 230 million
rupees and 280 million rupees for Cases B and C respectively, by pumping from the 16.7
million acres underlain by nonsaline ground water. Using the estimated future values of water,
the annual gain to the economy from "mining" it in the order of 1,600 million and 2,900
million rupees, respectively, for Case B and Case C over the benefits which would accrue
under Case A whereby the water table is lowered to a depth of 15 feet only.


C-5









COST OF DEPLETION


CONTINUOUS MINING

If pumping approximates the potential recharge rate for a sufficient period of time,
the water table will stabilize somewhere below the ground surface. As illustrated by Case B,
this depth will be much greater than is required for drainage alone. If pumpage is equivalent
to recharge from irrigation activities over the whole of a doab, the water table will approach
the depth and configuration that existed prior to irrigation. Where pumpage is greater than
potential recharge, as in Case C, the water table will descend to greater than historic depths.
If this excessive pumping rate is sustained, the cost of tubewell water would increase at the
rate of about 0.20 rupees per acre foot per year. It is highly unlikely that an increase in the
cost of water of this magnitude would ever act as a restraint to mining water. Nevertheless,
it is possible to develop criteria which give an approximate measure of the upper economic
limit of ground-water development.

Consider first the case where the pumping equipment is a fixed investment and pumping
can be done from any depth. The added cost of pumping from greater depths then is primarily
a function of the added cost of power.

Assuming a storage coefficient of 0.25, the water table will be lowered 4 feet minus
recharge for every foot of water pumped. If 22 percent of the volume pumped (Vp) is recharged
to the water table, the net decline in the water table is Vp 0.22Vp/0.25 or 3.12 Vp per
gross acre. Recharge from canal deliveries in the Northern Indus Plains is equal to approxi-
mately 54 percent of the volume delivered to the heads of the watercourses -- the point where
the tubewell water is discharged. In terms of canal deliveries per gross acre at the water-
course head (Dc) recharge from surface deliveries is 0.54 Dc, and the rise of the water table
is 0.54 Dc/0.25 or 2.16 Dc. Minimum annual recharge from other sources is estimated to
be 0.2 feet per gross acre and is considered constant, equivalent to a rise in the water table
of 0.8 feet per year. Hence, the annual decline of the water table in feet (Wd) in a given
pumping area is:

Wd = 3.12 Vp 2.16 Dc 0.8 (1)

The total pumping head, H, in any year, n, is the sum of (1) initial depth to water,
n
(2) dynamic head, and (3) the accumulated decline in the water table, 1 Wd-

The dynamic head is considered to be 30 feet and the initial depth to water, 10 feet; hence,
the pumping head in year n when Vp is constant is:

Hn =40+ n(3.12 Vp 2.16 Dc 0.8) (2)


C-6









At a cost of 0.07 rupees per kwh, the power cost per acre foot of water per foot of lift is
about 0.12 rupees, and the annual cost of power for any year, n, is:

C = 0.12 Vp (Hn) (3)

Using dt as the annual discount factor, the present worth of power costs over a time span of
n years is:
n
Cp=0.12Vp [dt (40+ n (3.12Vp -2.16Dc-0.8)_ (4)
t= I

The annual marginal value of water, MV, measured at the heads of the watercourses has been
estimated in Appendix B. The present marginal value for a moderately productive area in
terms of total volume of irrigation water in acre feet per gross acre, V, is:

MV = 104 19.6 V (5)

As V = Vp + Dc the present worth of the marginal value of water is

MVpw = d 1204 19.6 (Vp + Dc)] (6)

where d is the discount factor for a uniform series specified by Vp and Dc .

For any selected volume of surface deliveries, an optimum annual pumping volume
which maximizes present worth of net return can be found by equating the present worth of
marginal value to the present worth of marginal costs. The latter is defined as the change in
present worth of costs Cpw as Vp is changed, or:

MCpw = dC pw / d Vp (7)

This relationship reduces to the following expression when using a time span of 50 years,
discounting at 5 percent, and relating to marginal value of water under present conditions:

Vp + 0.48 Dc = 3.17 (8)

The optimum pumping rate, assuming an average canal delivery of 1.42 acre feet per
gross acre per year, is 2.49 acre feet per gross acre per year. As this optimum limit of
ground-water development is more than the annual ground-water requirement of about 2 acre
feet per gross acre projected in the regional plan, the planned level of ground-water devel-
opment is well within the bounds of economic feasibility. It should be noted that the optimum
pumping rate becomes larger with higher discount rates and with smaller canal deliveries.
Also the optimum pumping rate becomes slightly smaller if the period of analysis is longer
than 50 years, but this decrease is not significant.


* Appendix B, page 5, Table B-5, shows a present marginal value for Zone I, a moderately
productive area, as M = 104 17.2A, in terms of acre feet per CA. Equation (5) has
been modified to express the marginal value in terms of acre feet per gross area.
C-7









Inspection of the data also shows that after pumping at the optimum rate for about half
the period of analysis, the marginal cost will exceed the present marginal value of the water.
This results from the choice criterion which specifies a maximum present worth of net return.
However, the higher future costs, when discounted, are offset by the higher returns derived
from pumping early in the period of analysis. Moreover, it is estimated that by 1990 the
marginal value of irrigation water will have risen to nearly double its present marginal value.
Even if the marginal value of irrigation water does not rise above its 1990 level, the marginal
cost will not exceed marginal value during the 50-year period of analysis. However, as the
marginal value of water undoubtedly will continue to increase with time, this analysis gives
a conservative estimate of the upper economic limit for ground-water development in the
region.


ONE-TIME MINING

It is recognized, of course, that restraints other than economic factors may limit the
depth to which it is feasible to lower the water table. Although such restraints are not
readily foreseeable, the question arises as to whether the cost of water will become excessive
or uneconomic if and when it becomes necessary to reduce the rate of pumpage to the recharge
rate. This can be considered in the context of "one-time pumping" in which the rate of
withdrawal of water from the aquifer for a temporary period exceeds the long-time average
rate. An insight into this situation can be obtained by further consideration of Case C. If,
when the water table has descended to a depth of 90 feet, it becomes necessary to reduce
the rate of pumpage to the recharge rate, the cost of tubewell water would become:

Fixed costs = 12,410 Rs. / 1,050 a.f. = 11.80 Rs./a.f.
Power costs = (from Table C-2) = 14.00 Rs./a.f.

Total cost of pumping = 25.80 Rs./a.f.

The modest increase in cost of 3.20 rupees per acre foot results from the fixed costs
being spread over a smaller volume of pumpage. However, several decades will be required
for the water table to descend to 90 feet, and by that time the incremental value of water
undoubtedly will be greater than the incremental cost of pumping from the greater depth.

Pumpage of ground water in excess of the potential recharge rate, i.e., true mining
of the aquifer, will become uneconomic only when the cost of the additional pumping lift
makes the total cost of the tubewell water excessive at the time pumpage is reduced to
balance recharge. As stated above, the added cost of lifting the water is about 0.12 rupees
per acre foot times the additional depth in feet that the water table is lowered as a result of
mining. In the range of water applications required to achieve the target intensities in the
Northern Indus Plains, the marginal value of water ranges from 40 to 85 rupees per acre foot
under present conditions and will increase to a range from 140 to 185 rupees per acre foot in
the future. It is evident, therefore, that the water table can be lowered to depths far below
those contemplated in the development plan before one-time mining becomes uneconomic.


C-8









Attempts have been made by some to demonstrate that one-time mining is not economi-
cally feasible by assuming that a given volume of water is mined from the aquifer, capitaliz-
ing the incremental power costs attributable to the increased lift, and then assigning this
capitalized cost to the volume of water mined. Two fallacies are inherent in this approach.
The first is assignment of the added power costs in perpetuity to the volume of water mined
one time rather than to the volume of water that is beneficially used during the whole of the
period. Secondly, mining of water for a short period cannot be adopted as a criterion for
determining feasibility of mining as it would be manifestly uneconomic to modify a distribution
system to utilize additional water for only a brief period of time.


SUMMARY


It has been demonstrated that the level of ground-water development envisioned in
the development plan for the Northern Indus Plains is economically feasible. The rates of
withdrawal in the areas of heaviest pumping are well below the upper economic limit of
feasibility. The additional water generated by lowering the water table to projected levels
has a highly beneficial impact on the economy of the region. If decline of the water table
is held to a minimum, the concomitant loss to the economy could jeopardize the entire national
program of economic development.

Wherever tubewells are used to provide supplemental water for irrigation it is economi-
cally feasible and, therefore, essential that the water table be lowered to depths below those
required for agricultural drainage alone. Not only is this necessary so that the greatest
practicable amount of the potential recharge can be recovered for beneficial use, but the
economic cost of the supplemental water will be less than with a shallow water table because
more efficient use can be made of the tubewell installations. Furthermore, In the hydrologic
environment of the Indus Plains only by lowering the ground-water table can a significant
portion of the large volume of water stored in the aquifer during the last half century of irri-
gation be recovered for beneficial use. If ground-water pumpage exceeds recharge and
ultimately causes the water table to descend to levels below those that existed prior to irri-
gation of the area, the incremental cost of pumping from the deepest levels that can con-
ceivably be foreseen will be but a small part of the value of the additional water.

If at some time in the distant future it becomes necessary, for reasons other than
economic, to reduce tubewell pumpage to the recharge rate, the added cost of pumping from
such deeper depths will still be but a fraction of the cost of water and insignificant in relation
to its value at that time. Furthermore, when the time aspect is taken into account, it is
quite certain that technological improvements, both In tubewell construction and pumping
equipment as well as in energy generation, will have resulted in a cost of pumping that will
likely be less, and certainly not greater, than the present day costs used in this analysis.

It can be concluded, therefore, that considering only the cost of pumping it is not
economic to provide tubewells for drainage and limit their pumpage so that the water table is
lowered to only that depth required for agricultural drainage. On the benefit side of the
picture there are even more compelling reasons for unwatering the aquifer among which are:


C-9









1. The increased cropping intensity and corresponding increase in production which
can be derived from a modest increase in the capital cost of tubewell facilities.

2. Deep unwatering in nonsaline ground-water areas will greatly reduce the facili-
ties required for drainage of adjacent saline ground-water zones and in some
cases will eliminate the need for drainage facilities.

3. Deep unwatering along the eastern rivers will permit a significant portion of their
occasional flood flows to be salvaged for beneficial use.

Briefly, the most efficient use of the total water resources of the Northern Indus Plains
cannot be achieved unless the ground-water aquifer Is unwatered as envisioned in the devel-
opment plan. The feasibility of so doing is borne out by the fact that no place in the world
where tubewells have been installed for drainage and the ground water is useable for irrigation
has pumping been restricted in order to maintain the water table at some shallow depth.


C-10






' 4









































































a, -4


k7





)Tl


IN IM




"i" Wh"









CONTENTS


APPENDIX D

DEMAND FOR FOOD


INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . .
CALORIC AND PROTEIN VALUE OF THE PRESENT DIET .
PROJECTING FUTURE REQUIREMENTS . . . .
DEMAND FUNCTIONS . . . . . .
INCOME ELASTICITY COEFFICIENTS . . .
CONSUMPTION PATTERNS IN WEST PAKISTAN . .
PROJECTING DOMESTIC REQUIREMENTS . .
NUTRITIONAL REQUIREMENTS . . . .
DEMAND FOR FOOD IN THE NORTHERN INDUS


Page

D-1
D-1
D-3
D-4
D-6
D-6
D-11
D-15
D-15


PLAINS . . .


LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES


Title


Page


D-1 Summary of Food Balance in West Pakistan for 1964-65 With Population
of 51.2 M million . . . . . . . . . . . D-2
D-2 Calorie and Protein Content of National Average Food Supplies
(1961) . . . . . . . . . . . . D-3
D-3 Demand Functions .................... ... D-5
D-4 Expenditure Elasticities of Demand for Different Food Groups . . . D-7
D-5 Percentage of Total Food Expenditure Spent on Major Food Groups
According to Rural Consumption Surveys . . . . . D-8
D-6 Food Consumption in Relation to Monthly Food Allotment . . . D-9
D-7 Gross National Product and Consumption . . . . . . . D-11
D-8 Present Food Consumption and Projected Future Requirements . . D-12
D-9 Present Net Food Supply and Projected Future Requirements -
West Pakistan . . . . . . . . . . . D-13
D-10 Present Food Situation in West Pakistan . . . . . . . D-14


D-11 Projected Average Per Capita Intake of Calories and Proteins Under the
Development Plan . . . . . . . . . . .
D-12 Present Food Supply and Projected Future Requirements -
Northern Indus Plains . . . . . . . . .


D-15

D-16


D-1 Trends of the Elasticity of Expenditure on Selected Commodities . .


Table
No.


Figure
No.


D-10









DEMAND FOR FOOD


INTRODUCTION


Throughout the world, increasing populations, coupled with greater demands, have
resulted in greater and greater emphasis being placed upon food production. Two aspects of
the phenomena are felt by Pakistan. The first is direct and results from the growing gap
between agricultural production and the needs and demands of a growing population for more
and better food. The second is indirect and involves the increased difficulty of importing
food as world-wide food shortages grow and the availability of food from the surplus-producing
areas decreases. The first aspect puts economic and sociologic pressures upon Pakistan to do
its utmost to feed its people. The latter furnishes an attractive incentive for a potentially
productive area like West Pakistan to provide surpluses for a world market and thus generate
surplus capital for its own internal development.

In this discussion the future demand for food in West Pakistan, and particularly in the
Northern Indus Plains, is projected as a basis for comparing food demands with potential
supplies and for evaluation of the worth of future surpluses. The projections are made using
the present food situation in West Pakistan (Table D-1) as the base. Production figures for
1964-65 were taken from the Statistical Bulletin (November, 1965) and the Third Five-Year
Plan (June, 1965) unless otherwise noted. Conventional assumptions, mostly those used by
the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations(1) (FAO), were made in regard
to allowances for seed and losses as well as for conversion of gross production to net quanti-
ties. Most of the values for imports and exports are official data provided by the Government
of West Pakistan and available from the Statistical Bulletin (September, 1965).


CALORIC AND PROTEIN VALUE OF THE PRESENT DIET


Food requirements, or adequacy of diet, generally are indicated in terms of caloric
value and protein content of the daily diet. As shown in Table D-1, the present (1965)
average daily diet in West Pakistan is estimated to comprise 2,011 calories and 58.5 grams
of protein, of which 15.6 grams are derived from animal foods. The minimum diet recom-
mended for Pakistan by the FAO(1) is 2,550 calories, and 46 grams of protein. Thus, the
present average caloric intake apparently is 11 percent less than the minimum recommended
whereas the protein intake exceeds the minimum by 27 percent. However, because of the
obvious inequalities in food consumption and the uneven seasonal distribution of food supplies,
a large proportion of the people are seriously short of calories and/or proteins. Other
probable nutritional inadequacies also are indicated by the relatively small amounts of fruits
and vegetables consumed.



(1) "The State of Food and Agriculture 1965," Food and Agriculture Organization of the
United Nations, Rome.
D-1









Table D-1
SUMMARY OF FOOD BALANCE IN WEST PAKISTAN FOR 1964-65 WITH POPULATION OF 51.2 MILLION(2)
(All values in 1,000 metric tons unless noted otherwise)


Gross Supply Nonfood Use Supply Available for Human Consumption
Extrac- Total Net Net Total Animal
Food Deliveries Total Seed Animal Food tion Net Food Supply Calories Proteins Proteins
Product Production Imports Exports to East Gross and Feed Total Supply Rate Supply Per Capita Per Per Capita Per Capita
Pakistan Supply Losses (percent) (percent) Per Year Capita Per Day(f) Per Day
(percent) (kilograms) Per Day(f) (grams) (grams)
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) (14) (15) (16)


Wheat
Rice (hulled)
Maize
Other Cereals
Subtotal

Potatoes
Fruits
Vegetables
Fats and Oils
Cottonseed
Other Oilseeds
Sugar
i Cane
I Beetsugar
Refined
Gram
Other Pulses
Subtotal

Milk
Meat
Eggs
Fish
Subtotal

Total


1,190 6,386
175 22(a) 1,132
572
928
1,190 175 22 9,018


155' a 155
750 750
1,050 1,050
60(a) 60
770 770
245 52(a) 193

18,373 18,373

25(a) 25
661 661
170 170
22,174 85 0 52 22,207

5,609(a) 5,609
494(a) 494
15(a) 15
95(a) 18(a) 77
6,213 0 18 0 6,195

36,412 1,275 193 74 37,420


-- 639
-- 113
25 200
60 650
1,602

-- 31
-- 90
-- t126

25 270
-- 24

20 7,350


20 198
-- 17
8,106


0

9,708


5,747 90 5,172 101.0
1,019 100 1,019 20.0
372 90 335 6.5
278 80 222 4.4
7,416 6,748 132.0


124 100
660 100
924 100
60
500 10(b)
169 35(b)


2.4
13.0
18.0

3.5(c)


11,023 10(d) 992(e)
-- -- 20.0
25 -- 25 j
463 100 463 9.0
153 100 153 3.0J
14,101 3,515 69.0


5,609 100 5,609
494 100 494
15 100 15
77 75 58
6,195 6,176


27,712


110.0
9.6
0.3
1.1
121.0


960
200
104

1,264

5
21
11


82 --



192 0.6


114

425

264
54
2
2
322


16,439 322.0 2,011 58.5


11.4
3.8
0.1
0.3
15.6

15.6


(2) Sources: Government of Pakistan, "The Third Five-Year Plan (1965-70)," June, 1965, and Pakistan Statistical Bulletin, 1965.

Notes: (a) Estimated.
(b) Conversion to oil.
(c) Includes 0.2 kg. per capital slaughter fats.
(d) Conversion to raw sugar.
(e) Refined sugar (90% of raw sugar).
(f) Conversion rates from "Food Supply Time Series. FAO, 1960.


5,196
1,329
572
928
8,025
(- )\









According to FAO, the percapita caloric intake of West Pakistan compares favorably
with the average of other countries of Southeast Asia but is far below the intake of any of
the developed countries (Table D-2). It should be noted, however, that as indicated by
Clark and Haswell(3) FAO estimates of food requirements for Southeast Asia are based on a
relatively long working day and an average male body weight of 65 kilograms, both of which
may be overestimated with respect to West Pakistan. Although FAO's values for caloric and
protein requirements may be slightly inappropriate for West Pakistan at this time, they are
used as guidelines for estimation of present and future food requirements.

Table D-2

CALORIE AND PROTEIN CONTENT
OF NATIONAL AVERAGE FOOD SUPPLIES (1961)(4)

Calories Proteins Animal Proteins
Country per day grams/day grams/day

West Pakistan 2,011 58 16
Other Asian Countries
Ceylon 2,060 44 8
China (Taiwan) 2,400 60 16
India 2,040 53 6
Japan 2,290 70 22
Philippines 1,830 43 14
Others
United States 3,100 92 66
United Kingdom 3,250 89 54
Greece 2,930 95 28

PROJECTING FUTURE REQUIREMENTS


Food makes up a very large share of the agricultural products consumed in most under-
developed countries, and knowledge of consumption patterns obviously is required for realistic
development planning. The major factors involved in estimating future food requirements are
the increases in food consumption associated both with growth of population and with increases
in income. Other variables are changes in relative price, family size, urban or non-urban
environment, income distribution, tastes, and the like. Over long periods of economic
development, however, there is little doubt that size of population and per capital income are
the major variables influencing food consumption, and demand here is projected primarily on
the basis of these two variables.


(3) "Economics of Subsistence Agriculture," C. Clark and M.R. Haswell, 1965, MacMillan,
London.
(4) "Agricultural Commodity Projections for 1970," Commodity Review, F.A.O.
D-3









It is assumed for purposes of computation only that, other things being equal, a 10
percent increase in population will result in a 10 percent increase in total demand for food.
The influence of income on demand was estimated from a demand function expressing the
relationship between per capital income and the income elasticity of demand for different
groups or types of food. Income elasticity of demand is the response of consumer purchases
to increases in consumer income; strictly speaking, it is the percentage increase in the pur-
chase of each kind of food resulting from a specific increase in per capital income. Because
it influences the quantity and quality of food consumed, income helps establish both the level
of consumption and the consumption pattern. For example, purchases of livestock products
and fats and oils, within certain limits, rise more rapidly than income. Grain products,
however, are much less sensitive to increases in income, and above certain income levels
their consumption may be negatively related to income.

Obviously a substantial rise in per capital income in Pakistan would increase total
intake of food as well as total expenditure on food. As Pakistan has a very low average
income level, the income elasticity of demand for food is quite high, particularly for live-
stock products and for oils, fruits, and vegetables.

The projections for future demands were made on the further premise that prices remain
relatively constant, because significant changes in prices may induce unpredictable shifts in
the demand for food, particularly if food prices change relative to other prices. Therefore,
the derived figures thus probably represent trends in demand more accurately than actual
demand. Also, as many other factors besides income and population are involved and some
of these may have unexpected effects on demand, projections made for periods after 1975 are
highly tentative.


DEMAND FUNCTIONS

The mathematical relationship between the variables of population, income, and food
consumption may be approximated and expressed very simply by the linear function, d = p + gn.
This relationship indicates that the rate of increase in national food consumption, d, is equal
to the rate of population growth, p, plus the product of the rate of growth in per capital
income, g, and the income elasticity of food, n.

According to this equation, the greater the growth of income relative to population,
the greater the influence of a given income elasticity of demand on the amount of food con-
sumed. However, as the income elasticity of demand is assumed to be constant, this equation
does not accurately describe the behavior of food consumption, especially when income
increases significantly above the subsistence level.

The FAO(4) has developed demand functions (Table D-3) which have been adapted
for use in the Northern Indus Plains. These permit more reliable calculation of changes in
elasticity of demand as income increases.


D-4


(4) Ibid.









Table D-3

DEMAND FUNCTIONS
(From "Agricultural Commodity Projections for 1970, Commodity Review, FAO)


Elasticity
Coefficient


Increase in Demand


A. Semi-logarithmic


B. Log-inverse



C. Log log-inverse


y = a + b logex


e b
logey-a -b
e


b
e -


b
e
x


b
log y =a - _c log eX
e x e


y 1 =2.3026 e log 10 -


log10 = 0.4343 e (1 x-)
y 7


b y' e ^0x __x x_'.]
e xlog I e .4343 (1 x) glo
Y x m
m


* x, y, and e refer to per capital income, per capital demand, and elasticity coefficient, respectively, during the base period;
x', and y' refer to income and demand at the end of the projection. The coefficient, 0.4343, and its inverse, 2.3026,
correspond to the transformation of decimal into natural logarithms. In function C there is an additional parameter repre-
sented by xm corresponding to the value of income for which the maximum level of consumption is reached. This, according
to FAO, is about $535 at 1955 prices. In terms of purchasing power parity, it amounts to 1,273 rupees (1 rupee = $0.42
after allowance has been made for inflation).

According to the FAO, function C should be used for cereals, function B for farm value, calories, and proteins, and function
A for the remainder of the food groups.


Function*









INCOME ELASTICITY COEFFICIENTS


If typical cross-sectional data or statistical time-series studies of expenditures on food
consumption were available, regression functions could be calculated from present rates of
food consumption at various income levels to obtain demand elasticity coefficients. These in
turn could be inserted in the appropriate functions (Table D-3) to derive future demands for
food. Cross-sectional data presumably have an advantage over statistical time series, because
they describe the expenditure pattern at a point in time and, therefore, are not greatly influ-
enced by price changes. Although time series offer an historical pattern of consumptive
behavior, they may be available for only a few years; furthermore, price changes are difficult
to fit into the pattern, and it may be difficult to isolate the effect of income change from
other factors influencing food consumption.

In the absence of comprehensive consumption studies for West Pakistan, it is not
possible to arrive at highly reliable estimates for coefficients of income elasticity of demand
for food. The existing household budget surveys cover only rural areas and, consequently,
do not represent the conditions in the entire economy. The coefficients used by the World
Bank(5), which depend mainly on FAO methods, appear to yield fairly reasonable estimates.
These coefficients and other estimates for comparison purposes are listed in Table D-4.


CONSUMPTION PATTERNS IN WEST PAKISTAN


In planning for development of a country such as Pakistan, it is essential to know how
consumption patterns will change with development. Beringer and Ahmad(6) note that inter-
national comparisons of rural food consumption surveys, although difficult to apply because
of differences in the prices, quality, and composition of the different food groups, show that
the proportion of the total food budget spent on cereals and starches declines rapidly as income
increases, whereas consumption of sugar changes very little with income. As shown in Table
D-5, other food groups, such as meat, eggs, and fish, command greater proportions of the
total expenditure on food as incomes rise.

The Central Statistical Office National Sample Survey (Table D-6) shows a similar
trend for West Pakistan, with a few exceptions. For example, the survey indicates that the
percentages of the total food expenditure that is spent on meat and on fruits and vegetables
do not increase significantly as income rises. This, according to Beringer and Ahmad(6), may
be due to the difficulty of keeping meat and fresh produce under the existing climate condi-
tions. However, these relationships between income and consumption of meats and of fruits
and vegetables are not borne out by other available information.


(5) "Draft Report on Targets for Agricultural Production in West Pakistan," International
Bank for Reconstruction and Development, London, May, 1965.
(6) "The Use of Agricultural Surplus Commodities for Economic Development in Pakistan,"
C. Beringer and 1. Ahmad, The Institute of Development Economics, Karachi, 1964.


D-6







Table D-4


EXPENDITURE ELASTICITIES OF DEMAND FOR DIFFERENT FOOD GROUPS


Pakistan (a)
Rural
and Urban


IDE(b)
Pakistan
Rural


Rahman(c)
W. Pakistan
Rural


1964/65


World Bank(d)
Rural and Urban
1974/75


Cereals


0.5


Sugar and Gur
Sugar
Gur

Pulses

Potatoes

-- Fruits and Vegetables

Fats and Oils

Milk and Milk Products

Meat and Fish
Meat
Fish

Eggs


0.3

0.2

0.9


0.53


1.06
0.64


0.44


0.66


0.79


1.22

1.34
-


0.6

0.6


0.3

0.2


1.32


1.46

1.37
-


2.2


1.0


1.55
1.4

2.0


0.3

0.4



0.3

0.2

0.9

1.0

0.6


1.4
1.1

1 .7


0.15

0.3



0.3

0.2

0.8

0.8

0.3


1.2
0.9

1.5


(a) Income rather than expenditure elasticities, from "Agricultural Commodity Projections for 1970," Commodity Review,
FAO, Rome.
(b) C. Beringer and I. Ahmad, "The Use of Agricultural Surplus Commodities for Economic Development in Pakistan," The
Institute of Development Economics, Karachi, 1964.
(c) A.N.M. Azizur Rahman, "Expenditure Elasticities in Rural West Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Summer 1963.
(d) Draft Report on "Targets for Agricultural Production in West Pakistan," May 1, 1965, International Bank for Reconstruction
and Development.


Food
Group


1984/85







Table D-5

PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL FOOD EXPENDITURE SPENT ON MAJOR FOOD GROUPS
ACCORDING TO RURAL CONSUMPTION SURVEYS(a)


Cereals & Meat, Fish Milk, Fats Fruits and
Country Starches Sugar and Eggs and Oils Vegetables Other

West Pakistan (b) 44 10 5 29 3 9

Egypt (c) 40 10 19 15 (h) 16

Japan (d) 60 21 (i) 8 11

France (e) 15 3 32 19 12 19

Germany 19 5 33 19 12 12

USA (g) 13 2 30 21 15 19


(a) FAO, Review of Food Consumption Surveys. (Rome: Food and Ag-iculture Organization, 1958)
as quoted by C. Beringer and I. Ahmad.
(b) IDE subsample of third round of CSO National Sample Survey.
(c) 1955 survey of 233 rural families, size 3-5 persons/family.
(d) 1951/52 survey of 5093 rural households.
(e) 1951 survey of 1949 rural families.
(f) 1953 survey of 51 rural households.
(g) 1955 survey of 1679 families.
(h) Not available.
(i) Included under meat, fish and eggs.











Table D-6

FOOD CONSUMPTION IN RELATION
TO MONTHLY FOOD ALLOTMENT
(West Pakistan)


Food
Allotment
Range
Rs. Per Adult

10 20

20 30

30 40

40 75

75 & up


Total Food
Allotment
Rs. %

11.63 100

17.07 100

22.97 100

30.85 100

43.02 100


Cereals
Rs. %

6.92 60

8.11 48

10.21 44

12.21 40

12.06 28


Pulses
Rs. %

0.39 3

0.54 3

0.65 3

0.81 3

1.10 3


Milk
& Ghee
Rs. %

2.02 17

4.47 26

6.66 29

10.14 33

16.74 39


21.60


9.54 44 0.62 3 6.27 29 1.01 5 0.84 4 2.12 10 1.20 6


From IDE subsample of CSO National Sample Survey as quoted by C. Beringer and I. Ahmad Ref. (6).


Meat
& Fish
Rs. %

0.35 3

0.63 4

1.05 5

1.74 6

2.76 6


Fruit
& Vegs.
Rs. %

0.46 4

0.68 4

0.86 4

1.22 4

1.41 3


Average


Sugar
& Gur
Rs. %

0.81 7


1.63

2.22

3.17

6.41


Other
Foods
Rs. %

0.68 6

1.01 6

1.32 6

1.56 5

2.54 6










According to FAO(7), there is a consistent relationship between income elasticity
and meat consumption per capital throughout the world -- the smaller the consumption the
greater the elasticity and vice versa. As indicated in Figure D-1, the coefficient for meat
generally is above all other food products at all levels of expenditure. This suggests that,
despite the conclusions of Beringer and Ahmad, with rising incomes the demand for meat in
Pakistan will grow considerably faster than the demand for other foodstuffs, and that much of
the cereal and sugar will be replaced by fats and proteins.


TRENDS


OF
ON


FIGURE D-I
THE ELASTICITY OF EXPENDITURE
SELECTED COMMODITIES


100 150 250 500


750 1,000 1250 1500


TOTAL LIVING EXPENDITURE PER CAPITA-U.S. DOLLARS AT 1950 PRICES





(7) "The World Demand for Meat," Food and Agricultural Organization of the United
Nations, Commodity Bulletin Series, Rome, 1965.
D-10









PROJECTING DOMESTIC REQUIREMENTS


By taking current apparent per capital expenditure as the base and using estimated
consumption figures (Table D-7) with the aforementioned income elasticity coefficients in
the appropriate demand functions, the per capital consumption as affected by income only was
projected through the year 2000 (Table D-8). The future requirements for food were obtained
by multiplying per capital consumption by the projected population in the respective time
periods (Table D-9); the present food supply is shown in this table for comparison, and the
detailed present food situation is shown in Table D-10.

Table D-7

GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT AND CONSUMPTION(a)
(Values for West Pakistan at 1964-65 prices)

1964- 1974- 1984- 1999-
Item 1965 1975 1985 2000

GNP (million rupees) 22,586 41,006 77,170 207,019

Savings(b) (percent) 12 18 22 22
(million rupees) 2,642 7,504 16,823 45,130

Consumption (million rupees) 19,944 33,502 60,347 161,889

Population (millions)(c)
Low (as in Third 5-Year Plan) 51 65 83 116
Medium (IACP)(d) 51 69 93 136

GNP per capital (rupees)
Low population growth 441 627 932 1,780
Medium population growth 441 595 833 1,522

Consumption per capital (rupees)(e)
Low population growth 389 512 728 1,391
Medium population growth 389 486 651 1,190

(a) Based on the Third Five-Year Plan (June, 1965) which presents rates of increase of
Gross National Product (GNP) by regions and per capital to 1985. A 6.8% rate of
growth is assumed from 1985 to 2000.
(b) Savings rates are not available by provinces, and so these are estimated values.
(c) Population growth rates after 1985 are assumed to be 2.3 and 2.6% per year for low
and medium population estimates.
(d) Investment Advisory Centre of Pakistan.
(e) Demand projections were based on increases in per capital consumption expenditure rather
than on GNP per capital because of increasing marginal savings rates with time.


D-11









Table D-8


PRESENT FOOD CONSUMPTION AND PROJECTED FUTURE REQUIREMENTS
(Values in net kilograms per capital per year for West Pakistan income effect only)


1964-65 1974-75 1984-85 1999-2000
Food Product Low Medium Low Medium Low Medium
Population Population Population Population Population Population


Wheat
Rice
Other Cereals
Subtotal

Sugar
Pulses-Gram
Potatoes
Vegetable es
Fruits
Fats and Oils
Subtotal

Milk and Products
Meat
Eggs
Fish
Subtotal


TOTAL


101.0
20.0
11.0
132.0

20.0
12.0
2.4
18.0
13.0
3.5
69.0

110.0
9.6
0.3
1.1
121.0

322.0


116.0
23.0
13.0
152.0

23.0
13.0
2.5
23.0
17.0
4.7
83.0

140.0
14.0
0.5
1.5
156.0

391.0


113.0
22.0
12.0
147.0

23.0
13.0
2.5
22.0
16.0
4.5
81.0

134.0
13.0
0.4
1.4
149.0

377.0


125.0
25.0
14.0
164.0

26.0
14.0
2.7
30.0
22.0
6.4
101.0

170.0
20.0
0.7
2.1
193.0

458.0


121.0
23.0
13.0
157.0

26.0
14.0
2.6
28.0
20.0
5.8
96.0

157.0
18.0
0.6
1.8
177.0

430.0


137.0
27.0
15.0
179.0

31.0
17.0
3.0
46.0
33.0
9.7
140.0

203.0
36.0
1.4
3.3
244.0

563.0


131.0
25.0
14.0
170.0

31.0
17.0
2.9
41.0
30.0
8.6
130.0

185.0
31.0
1.1
2.8
220.0

520.0


Low population requirements based on high income factors whereas medium
population requirements are based on low income factors.
Reference Table D-11










Table D-9


PRESENT NET FOOD SUPPLY AND PROJECTED FUTURE REQUIREMENTS WEST PAKISTAN
(Values in thousand tons net)


1964-65 1974-75 1984-85 1999-2000
Food Product Low Medium Low Medium Low Medium
Population Population Population Population Population Population

Wheat 5,172 7,586 7,786 10,350 11,205 15,933 17,816
Rice 1,019 1,504 1,516 2,070 2,130 3,140 3,400
Other Cereals 557 850 827 1,159 1,204 1,744 1,904
Subtotal 6,748 9,940 10,129 13,579 14,539 20,817 23,120

Sugar 1,022 1,504 1,585 2,153 2,408 3,605 4,216
Pulses-Gram 616 850 896 1,159 1,296 1,977 2,312
Potatoes 124 164 172 234 241 349 394
Vegetables 924 1,504 1,516 2,484 2,593 5,350 5,576
Fruits 660 1,112 1,102 1,822 1,852 3,838 4,080
Fats and Oils 169 307 310 530 537 1,128 1,170
Subtotal 3,515 5,441 5,581 8,382 8,927 16,247 17,748

Milk and Products 5,609 9,156 9,234 14,076 14,538 23,609 25,160
Meat 494 916 896 1,656 1,667 4,187 4,216
Eggs 15 33 28 58 56 163 150
Fish 58 98 96 174 167 384 381
Subtotal 6,176 10,203 10,254 15,964 16,428 28,343 29,907


25,584 25,964 37,925


TOTAL 16,439


39,894 65,407 70,775









Table D-10


PRESENT FOOD SITUATION IN WEST PAKISTAN(a)
(Population 51.2 million)


Gross Apparent Net Human Animal
Item Production Seed and Losses Consumption Feed
(1 ,000 tons) (1,000 tons) (Percent) (1,000 tons) (kgs./capita) (1,000 tons)


Cereals
Wheat
Rice
Maize
Barley
Sorghum
Millets
Potatoes
Vegetables
Fruits
Gram and Pulses
Sugarcane
Fats and Oils
Cottonseed
Others
Fish


8,025
5,196
1,329
572
128
317
483
155
1,050
750
831
18,373

770
245
77


902
639
113
57
13
32
48
31
126
90
83
3,675

77
24
19


6,748
5,172
1,019
335
30
76
116
124
924
660
616
1,022

50
119
58


(losses)


132
101
20
6.5
0.6
1.5
2.3
2.4
18
13
12
20

3.5
1.1


143
77
190
290



132
3,675


193


No. of Animals Yield per Animal
(x 1,000) (kgs.)


Cattle
Adult
Youngstock
Buffaloes
Adult
Youngstoc k
Goats
Sheep
Poultry
Milk
Cows
Buffaloes
Goats
Eggs


1,461
1,140

6,720
909
3,659
4,386
5,600

2,470
2,822
4,450
10,930


91.0
34.0

145.0
68.0
20.0
20.0
0.7

635.0
1,361.0
45.0
1.4


97
61
73
87
4
5,609
1,568
3,841
200
15.3


110



0.3


(a) Refer to Table D-1 and to the WAPDA publication "A Report on
Resources of the Northern Zone," by Directorate of Planning and
1966.
D-14


Livestock and Poultry
Investigation, Lahore,









NUTRITIONAL REQUIREMENTS


The projected per capital consumption of food expressed in calories and in proteins are
as follows:

Table D-11

PROJECTED AVERAGE PER CAPITAL INTAKE OF CALORIES AND PROTEINS
UNDER THE DEVELOPMENT PLAN

Nutritional Category 1964-65 1974-75 1984-85 1999-2000

Calories per day
Low population 2,011 2,377 2,690 3,192
Medium population 2,011 2,303 2,562 2,998

Proteins per day (grams)
Low population 58.5 69.5 79.5 96.5
Medium population 58.5 67.3 75.4 89.8

Animal proteins per day (grams)
Low population 15.6 20.7 26.4 36.7
Medium population 15.6 19.6 24.2 32.6



According to these figures, the FAO recommended minimum nutritionally acceptable
diet will not be reached on average until 1975 or after. If satisfactory dietary improvements
do not result from increased productivity and income by this time, government action may be
required to promote the consumption of certain foods by appropriate policies in respect to their
prices and production and through the education of the consumer. If the projected consumption
levels are attained, the nutritional value of the diet will be much improved by 1985 and will
reach satisfactory levels by the year 2000.


DEMAND FOR FOOD IN THE NORTHERN INDUS PLAINS

The lack of reliable information concerning the movement of food commodities within
West Pakistan, between West and East Pakistan, and between Pakistan and the rest of the
world makes it difficult to arrive at reasonably accurate base figures for food consumption in
the Northern Indus Plains. Hence, it had to be assumed that, on the average, the per capital
consumption in the Northern Indus Plains is similar to that for all of West Pakistan. It should
be noted that this assumption does not hold for a few commodities; for example, wheat con-
sumption is higher in the North than in the South while the opposite is true in respect to rice.
The net demand for food in the projected area is shown in Table D-12.


D-15









Table D-12


PRESENT FOOD SUPPLY AND PROJECTED FUTURE REQUIREMENTS
NORTHERN INDUS PLAINS
(Values in thousand tons, net)


1964-65 1974-75 1984-85 1999-2000
Food Product Low Medium Low Medium Low Medium
Population Population Population Population Population Population


Wheat
Rice
Other Cereals
Subtotal

Sugar
Pulses and Grams
Potatoes
Vegetables
Fruits
Fats and Oils
Subtotal


Milk
Meat
Eggs
Fish


Subtotal

TOTAL


2,646
524
288
3,458

524
314
63
472
340
92
1,805

2,882
252
8
29
3,171

8,434


3,886
770
436
5,092

770
435
84
770
570
157
2,786

4,690
496
17
50
5,222

13,100


3,955
770
420
5,145

805
455
88
770
560
157
2,835

4,690
455
14
49
5,208

13,188


5,375
1,075
602
7,052

1,118
602
116
1,290
946
275
4,347

7,310
860
30
90
8,290

19,689


5,602
1,065
602
7,269

1,204
648
120
1,296
926
269
4,463

7,269
833
28
83
8,213

19,945


8,288
1,633
907
10,828

1,875
1,028
181
2,783
1,996
587
8,450

12,281
2,178
85
200
14,744

34,022


8,908
1,700
952
11,560

2,108
1,156
197
2,788
2,040
585
8,874"

12,580
2,108
75
190
14,953

35,387


46.3 60.5 68.0


Population


35.0 43.0


26.2


33.5





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YXI

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TIV









CONTENTS


APPENDIX E

PRIMARY BENEFITS


Page

PRIMARY BENEFITS ......................... E-1
CROP YIELDS . . . . . . . . .. . . . .. . E-1
PRESENT YIELDS . .. .. ... .. .. . .. . .. . E-1
FUTURE YIELDS ........................ E-2
CROPPING PATTERNS ... ......... ..... .... .. E-3
CROP PRICES ...... .... ..... . ... ..... E-6
CROP PRODUCTION THROUGH THE YEAR 2000
WITH DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM .................. E-7
WITHOUT DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM . . . . . . . . E-7
COST OF CROP PRODUCTION ...................... E-10
VALUE OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION . . . . . . . . E-12


LIST OF TABLES

Table
No. Title Page

E-1 Base Status of Agriculture 1959-61 . . . . . . . . . E-2
E-2 Present and Projected Crop Yields . . . . . . . . . E-3
E-3 1960 Cropping Patterns ....................... E-4
E-4 Future Cropping Patterns . . . . . . . . . . . E-5
E-5 Average Crop Prices in 1960 . . . . . . . . . . E-6
E-6 Production and Value of Crops With Development Program . . . . E-8
E-7 Production and Value of Crops Without Development Program . . . E-9
E-8 Average Cost of Crop Production . . . . . . . . . E-11
E-9 Regional Average Cost of Crop Production . . . . . . . E-11
E-10 Net value of Agricultural Production With and Without Development
Program . . . . . . . . . . . . . E-13









PRIMARY BENEFITS


Primary benefits include all profits derived directly from development. In this dis-
cussion primary development benefits are expressed in terms of the net gain in income after
deducting all costs of production and all gains that would have been made without construction
of a project. To obtain reliable estimates of primary benefits, present and projected crop
yields, cropping patterns, crop prices, and costs of production are computed both with and
without a development program. Total costs of production are subtracted from gross returns
both with and without a program, and the difference is the net return directly attributable to
the program at a given time.


CROP YIELDS


Present yields, required to establish the basis for analysis, are derived largely from
published data. Future crop yields resulting from full development were estimated from super-
ior yields obtained in the region and from similar areas elsewhere, and by taking into account
the projected changes in irrigation supplies, other inputs, and improved agricultural technology.


PRESENT YIELDS

The crop yields used as a base for calculation of benefits are the average yields0) of
the principal crops for the 3-year period 1958-59 through 1960-61 in the following divisions:
Bahawalpur, Lahore (except Sialkot District), Multan (except D. G. Khan District), and
Sargodha. The calculated average yield for each crop was then increased 10 percent, except
for wheat which was increased 15 percent, to allow for the under-reporting recognized by
government agencies. Yields of minor crops were estimated from information obtained from
various sources. The adjusted present average yields, acreages, and total production for the
region are given in Table E-1.














(1) "Statistics of West Pakistan Agricultural Data, 1947-48 to 1962-63," Bureau of Statistics,
P. & D. Department, GOWP, Lahore, 1964.









Table E-1

BASE STATUS OF AGRICULTURE 1959-61


Harvested Area Yield Crop Production
Crop (million acres) maundss per acre) (million maunds)


Rice (paddy)
Sugarcane (gur)
Cotton (seed cotton)
Maize
Millets (jowar and bajra)
Kharif Fodder (fresh weight)
Wheat
Pulses
Oilseeds
Rabi Fodder (fresh weight)
Vegetables
Fruit
Miscellaneous
Total


1.1
0.8
2.4
0.4
0.7
1.4
6.0
1.2
0.4
1.7
0.2
0.1
0.3
16.7


18
34
8
12
6
300
12
6
5
310
110
28


Non-Food Crops
Food Crops


19.8
27.2
19.2(2)
4.8
4.2
420.0(2)
72.0
7.2
2.0
527.0(2)
22.0
2.8

1,128.2

966.2
162.0


(1) Source: "Statistics of West Pakistan Agricultural Data, 1947-48 to 1962-63," Bureau of
Statistics, P. & D. Department, GOWP, Lahore, 1964.
(2) Non-Food Crops


FUTURE YIELDS

Estimates of future crop yields may be subject to greater error in the Northern Indus
Plains than elsewhere because of the relative scarcity of local research data on response of
crops to optimum combinations of adequate and timely irrigation supplies; appropriate use of
fertilizers, improved seeds, and pesticides; and improved crop, soil, and water management
practices. Measured crop yields on progressive farms in the region; yields from recent province-
wide trials on fertilizer, Mexi-Pak wheat, and short-stem rice; and yields from other countries
at advanced stages of development with similar soil and climate conditions were used as bases
for the estimates. The present and projected crop yields for the Northern Indus Plains are
given in Table E-2.









Table E-2


PRESENT AND PROJECTED CROP YIELDS
(Values in maunds per acre unless otherwise noted)


Increase Over
Crop 1960 Base Future 1960 Base
(after reclamation) (percent)

Kharif:
Rice (paddy) 18 43 239
Cotton (seed cotton) 8 33 412
Maize 12 37 308
Millets 6 28 467
Fodder (fresh weight) 300 654 218
Vegetables 110 176 160
Miscellaneous 17 37 218

Rabi:
Wheat 12 41 342
Ollseeds 5 16 320
Fodder (fresh weight) 310 616 199
Pulses 6 20 334
Vegetables 110 176 160
Miscellaneous 17 37 218

Perennial:
Sugarcane (gur) 34 71 209
Fruit 28 107 382

Average 100% 279%


CROPPING PATTERNS


The Northern Indus Plains was divided into four major agricultural zones on the basis
of differences in climate, soils, stage of development, and the like. The present acreages
of each crop for the base period 1959 to 1961 for each of these four agricultural zones were
derived primarily from Union Council data compiled by the Bureau of Statistics for the years
1962-63 and 1963-64. The total cropped acreage, including both irrigated and barani land,
was used in each case, as this is the basis from which crop yields and total production were
calculated. The traditional cropping patterns, corresponding acreages, and cropping inten-
sities for the four zones are given in Table E-3, and future cropping patterns and intensities
in Table E-4.









Table E-3


1960 CROPPING PATTERNS


Agricultural Agricultural Agricultural Agricultural Total Northern
Season and Crop Zone I Zone II Zone III Zone IV Indus Plains
1,000 Percent 1,000 Percent 1,000 Percent 1,000 Percent 1,000 Percent
Acres of RA Acres of RA Acres of RA Acres of RA Acres of RA
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11)


Kharif:
Rice
Cotton
Maize
Millets
Fodder
Vegetables
Miscellaneous


Sugar Cane
Fruit
Subtotal


rn
Rabi:
Wheat
Pulses
Oilseeds
Fodder
Vegetables
Miscellaneous


Sugar Cane
Fruit
Subtotal


Total Cropped Area


777 14.0
456 8.2
153 2.8
180 3.2
417 7.5
10 0.2
27 0.5

268 4.8
21 0.4
2,309 41.6



1,900 34.2
298 5.4
93 1.7
588 10.6
37 0.7
35 0.6

268 4.8
21 0.4
3,243 58.4


5,552


181 3.6
665 13.3
168 3.4
156 3.1
343 6.9
8 0.2
25 0.5

245 4.9
46 0.9
1,837 36.7



1,608 32.2
193 3.9
84 1.7
555 11.1
43 0.9
31 0.6

245 4.9
46 0.9
2,806 56.1


4,643


134 3.0
18 0.4
1,806 40.1


1,328
189
125
349
46
19


134 3.0
18 0.4
2,205 49.0


4,011


142
19
1,237



1,120
503
92
189
46
25

142
19
2,133

3,370


2.5
0.3
21.7


1,112 5.4
2,439 11.7
394 1.9
705 3.4
1,426 6.9
30 0.1
190 0.9

789 3.8
104 0.5
7,189 34.6



5,956 28.6
1,183 5.8
394 1.9
1,681 8.1
170 0.8
110 0.5

789 3.8
104 0.5
10,387 50.0


2.5
0.3
37.4


17,576


Reclamation Area (1,000 ac.) 5,554


Kharif: Rabi Ratio


1: 1.40


5,000


1: 1.53


4,503

1: 1.22


20,758


5,701

1: 1.72


1: 1.44


Cropping Intensity 100


93 89


59 85

















Table E-4

FUTURE CROPPING PATTERNS
(Expressed as percent of Reclamation Area)


Agricultural Zone I


Project Normal Normal Composite
4 Nonsaline Saline
(2) (3) (4) (5)


Agricultural Zone II

Normal Normal Composite
Nonsaline Saline
(6) (7) (8)


Agricultural Zone III

Normal Normal Composite
Nonsaline Saline
(9) (10o) (11)


Agricultural Zone IV

Normal Normal Composite
Nonsaline Saline
(12) (13) (14)


Kharif:
Rice
Cotton
Maize
Millets
Fodder
Vegetables
Miscellaneous
Cane
Fruit
Subtotal

Rabi:
Wheat
Pulses
Oilseeds
Fodder
Vegetables
Miscellaneous
Cane
Fruit
Subtotal

Annual Total


26.6 18.0 6.0
8.4 13.0 6.0
5.2 9.0 6.0
5.2 4.0 4.0
12.0 13.0 9.0
1.8 1.5 1.0
1.8 4.0 2.0
7.0 8.5 6.0
1.4 1.5 1.0
69.6 72.5 41.0


38.4 35.0 28.0
7.1 7.0 5.0
4.8 3.5 3.0
17.5 16.0 13.0
2.2 2.0 2.0
1.4 4.0 1.0
7.0 8.5 6.0
1.4 1.5 1.0
79.8 77.5 59.0

149.2 150.0 100.0


20.8
11.5
7.8
4.4
12.7
1.6
3.3
7.9
1.5
71.5


36.1
7.0
3.9
16.5
2.1
3.2
7.9
1.5
78.2

149.7


5.0 3.0 4.7
19.0 8.0 17.4
12.0 4.0 10.8
4.0 4.0 4.0
13.0 9.0 12.4
1.0 1.0 1.0
3.0 1.5 2.8
12.0 8.0 11.4
2.0 1.5 1.9
71.0 40.0 66.4


38.0 30.0 36.8
5.0 4.0 4.9
3.0 3.0 3.0
15.0 10.0 14.3
2.0 2.0 2.0
2.0 1.5 1.9
12.0 8.0 11.4
2.0 1.5 1.9
79.0 60.0 76.2

150.0 100.0 142.6


4.0 2.0 3.4
21.0 11.0 18.1
9.0 3.0 7.4
4.0 4.0 3.8
15.0 10.0 13.3
1.0 1.0 1.0
5.0 1.0 4.0
9.0 6.0 8.0
1.0 1.0 1.0
69.0 39.0 60.0


40.0 30.0 36.2
7.0 6.0 6.5
4.0 5.0 4.0
16.0 10.0 14.1
1.5 2.0 1.5
2.5 1.0 2.1
9.0 6.0 8.0
1.0 1.0 1.0
81.0 61.0 73.4

150.0 100.0 133.4


3.0 2.0 2.9
24.0 11.0 22.6
9.0 2.0 8.2
4.0 5.0 4.2
16.0 9.0 15.3
1.0 1.0 1.0
4.0 1.0 3.7
7.0 5.0 6.8
1.0 1.0 1.0
69.0 37.0 65.7


36.0 29.0 35.6
9.0 7.0 8.9
5.0 5.0 5.1
18.0 12.0 17.4
1.0 2.0 1.1
4.0 2.0 3.8
7.0 5.0 6.8
1.0 1.0 1.0
81.0 63.0 79.7

150.0 100.0 145.4


Notes: (a) Cropping patterns indicated as Normal Nonsaline '-re used for both Nonsaline and Intermediate Zones.
(b) Cropping patterns for Saline Zones are calculated on the basis of an annual intensity of 100 percent.
(c) Cropping intensities in individual Saline Zones range between 80 and 150 percent depending upon the
capacities of the canal distribution systems.
(d) Normal Saline cropping patterns are used in Saline Zones with cropping intensities of 80 to 120 percent.
(e) Nonsaline cropping patterns are used in Saline Zones with cropping intensities greater than 120 percent.


Season & Crop

(1)


Northern
Inus ns
Composite

(15)


8.2
17.4
8.6
4.1
13.5
1.2
3.4
8.5
1.3
66.2


36.2
6.9
4.0
15.7
1.7
2.8
8.5
1.3
77.1

143.3









CROP PRICES


The average price received by farmers in 1959-61 for each of the major crops, exclud-
ing fruits, vegetables, and fodders, was based on harvest prices compiled by the Land Revenue
Department for the period 1947 to 1965. Regression analysis was conducted on each crop in
each district for the period of record generally from 1947 through 1965. The mean price
for the entire period of record in each district was used for the 1959-61 price where no trend
existed; where there was a significant trend, the 1960 price was taken from the regression
equation.

To obtain properly weighted reference prices, the total cash value of each crop in
1960 was calculated by summing production multiplied by unit price for each district, and
the total value thus obtained was divided by the total number of units produced. The values
of fodder crops, fruits, and vegetables were based on information collected from cultivators
and from surveys of a number of district markets. The unit values for miscellaneous crops was
taken to be the average value of all crops. Average regional crop prices are listed in Table
E-5.

Table E-5

AVERAGE CROP PRICES IN 1960
(Northern Indus Plains)

Price
Crop (rupees/maund)

Rice (paddy) 12
Sugarcane (gur) 18
Cotton (seed cotton) 32
Maize 13
Millets 13
Fodder (fresh weight) 0.50
Wheat 13
Pulses 13
Oilseeds 23
Berseem (fresh weight) 0.90
Vegetables 4.50
Fruit 16


E-6









CROP PRODUCTION THROUGH THE YEAR 2000


WITH DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM

A basic production index was prepared to simplify calculation of total agricultural
production for any specific year. This index was derived from the 1959-61 base acreage and
production, and was the average annual production of all crops expressed in terms of maunds
per culturable acre. For application to undeveloped land, the 1960 value of this index is
increased 11 percent per year until construction is completed and development initiated.

The average project development period is taken to be 5 years, beginning after con-
struction is completed and all works in operation. During this development period target
cropping intensities less than 150 percent are fully achieved and where target cropping inten-
sities are 150 percent they are attained on 95 percent of the area. This plus adequate irriga-
tion and addition of imports results in an average increase in the basic 1959-61 production
index of approximately 15 percent per year compounded for 5 years. During the following 15
years, productivity of each developed project area increases 7 percent per year as a result of
achievement of full cropping intensity and integration of additional inputs into farm manage-
ment. If the full 20-year development period is completed before the year 2000, productivity
is calculated to increase at 3 percent per year compounded until the year 2000 primarily as a
result of continually improving agricultural technology.

The acreage that comes into development each year is established by the tubewell
construction schedule. Total production figures for individual crops for reference years were
calculated by use of the appropriate production index and cropping pattern and the amount of
nondeveloped acreage. These projections were modified by two assumptions. Firstly, that pri-
vate tubewells will command 4.2 million acres by 1975; and secondly as project works go into
operation half of the private tubewells will be abandoned, and as a result the acreage com-
manded by private tubewells will decrease to about 2.1 million acres by 1985 but the cropping
intensity on these lands will average 180 percent. The higher intensity on the private tube-
well commanded areas results in a region-wide average intensity of 146 percent. Crop pro-
duction and value of production with the development program are shown in Table E-6.

WITHOUT DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM

This estimate excludes the effect of any SCARP project, including SCARP 1. It is
assumed that production will increase 1I percent per year region-wide except on the land
commanded by private tubewells. On these lands the rate of increase of production with time
is assumed to be the same as for the with-project situation -- i.e., 15 percent per year com-
pounded for the first 5 years, 7 percent per year compounded for the next 15 years, and 3
percent compounded thereafter until the year 2000, with the ultimate cropping intensity at
150 percent and ultimate per-acre yields the same as for the public program. In the absence
of reclamation projects it is estimated that private tubewells will continue to be installed at
a rate sufficient to command 4.2 million acres by 1975, and that the tubewell commanded
area will remain constant thereafter. Crop production and values in the absence of the
development program are given in Table E-7.

















Table E-6

PRODUCTION AND VALUE OF CROPS WITH DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM
(All values are In millions at 1960 prices)

1960 1960 1965 1970 1980 1990 2000
Crop Price Production Value Production Value Production Value Production Value Production Value Production Value
Rs./Md. (Maunds) (Rs.) (Maunds) (Rs.) (Maunds) (Rs.) (Maunds) (Rs.) (Maunds) (Rs.) (Maunds) (Rs.)
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) L (11) (12) (13) (T4)1


Rice (paddy)

Sugarcane (gur)

Cotton (seed)

Maize

Millets

Fodder (fresh weight)

Wheat

Pulses

Oilseeds

Berseem (fresh weight)

Vegetables

Fruit

Miscellaneous

Totals



Production Value Indices
(RA = 20.758 million acres)

Rs./RA

Rs./RA (1960 = 100)


19.8 238

27.2 490

19.2 614

4.8 62

4.2 55

420.0 210

72.0 936

7.2 94

2.0 46

527.0 474

22.0 99

2.8 45

-- 60

1,128.2 3,423






165

100


23.5 282

33.5 603

26.1 835

9.7 126

5.5 72

510.0 255

87.5 1,138

8.5 111

2.7 62

616.0 554

26.8 121

4.6 74

-- 75

1,354.4 4,308






208

126


29.5 354

46.5 837

40.9 1,309

20.2 263

8.3 108

694.0 347

118.3 1,538

11.1 144

4.3 99

793.4 714

38.2 172

9.0 144

-- 120

1,813.7 6,149






296

179


50.3 604

88.5 1,593

84.0 2,688

46.8 608

17.0 221

1,291.0 646

218.5 2,840

20.3 264

9.3 214

1,417.9 1,276

74.7 336

20.5 328

-- 430

3,338.8 12,048






580

352


75.0 900

130.1 2,342

123.8 3,962

69.3 901

25.0 325

1,903.1 952

323.1 4,200

29.8 387

13.7 315

2,087.2 1,878

108.8 490

30.2 483

-- 800

4,919.1 17,935


864

524


100.7 1,208

174.6 3,143

166.1 5,315

93.0 1,209

33.6 437

2,553.7 1,277

433.6 5,637

40.1 521

18.5 426

2,800.3 2,520

146.0 657

40.3 645

-- 1,080

6,600.5 24,075


12

18

32

13

13

0.50

13

13

23

0.90

4.50

16
















Table E-7

PRODUCTION AND VALUE OF CROPS WITHOUT DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM
(All values are In millions at 1960 prices)

1960 1960 1965 1970 1980 1990 2000
Crop Price Production Value Production Value Production Value Production Value Production Value Production Value
Rs./Md. (Maunds) (Rs.) (Maunds) (Rs.) (Maunds) (Rs.) (Maunds) (Rs.) (Maunds) (Rs.) (Maunds) (Rs.)
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) (14)


Rice (paddy)

Sugarcane (gur)

Cotton (seed)

Maize

Millets

Fodder (fresh weight)

Wheat

Pulses

Oilseeds

Berseem (fresh weight)

Vegetables

Fruit


Miscellaneous

Totals



Production Value Indices
(RA = 20.758 million acres)

Rs./RA

Rs./RA (1960 = 100)


19.8 238

27.2 490

19.2 614

4.8 62

4.2 55

420.0 210

72.0 936

7.2 94

2.0 46

527.0 474

22.0 99

2.8 45

60

1,128.2 3,423






165

100


23.1 277

32.5 585

24.8 794

8.5 110

5.3 69

498.2 249

85.4 1,110

8.3 108

2.6 60

607.8 547

26.3 118

4.2 67

70

1,327.0 4,164






201

122


27.9 335

39.9 718

31.9 1,021

12.5 163

6.7 87

609.3 305

104.4 1,357

10.1 131

3.4 78

729.4 656

32.3 145

5.9 94

-- 110

1,613.7 5,200






251

152


37.1 445

53.9 970

44.4 1,421

19.0 247

9.2 120

818.4 409

140.4 1,825

13.4 174

4.7 108

966.3 870

43.5 196

8.7 139

-- 150

2,159.0 7,074






341

207


47.1 565

68.8 1,238

57.6_ 1,843

25.6 333

11.9 155

1,043.8 522

179.0 2,327

17.1 222

6.1 140

1,223.6 1,101

55.6 250

11.6 186

-- 200

2,747.8 9,082






438

265


58.1 697

85.1 1,532

71.7 2,294

32.5 422

14.9 194

1,287.2 644

220.8 2,870

21.0 273

7.7 177

1,503.1 1,353

68.7 309

14.5 232

-- 250

3,385.3 11,247






542

328


12

18

32

13

13

0.50

13

13

23

0.90

4.50

16









COST OF CROP PRODUCTION


Detailed surveys of the costs of crop production were conducted in the SCARP IV and
SCARP V areas in 1963 and 1964. Land revenue and water charges were obtained from the
Land Revenue and the Irrigation and Power Departments. Research theses from the Agricultural
University, Lyalipur, containing cost information for selected areas and time studies of farming
operations, were useful as guides. Helpful information also was abstracted from publications
of the Board of Economic Inquiry, the Harvard Group, the Planning Commission, the 1965
Lower Indus Plains Report by Hunting-MacDonald, and reports prepared by IACA and others
for the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development.

Cost items include land revenue, present water cost, seed, fertilizer, pesticides,
implements, tools, hired labor, depreciation, interest, fodder for work animals, maintenance
of implements, and miscellaneous. Not included are family labor, and land rent or interest
on land investment.

The number of man-days and animal-days required for the listed crops, the average
investment in implements, tools, work animals, etc., and the average cost of maintenance of
each of these were obtained from surveys. Interest, depreciation, and maintenance were
allocated to each crop on the basis of man-day and animal-day requirements, weighted
according to present cropping patterns. One-third of the fodder production was charged
against the crop as working-animal feed. Hired labor charges, including both permanent and
casual labor, were allocated to specific crops if possible, or otherwise pro-rated among all
crops.

Fertilizer and seed costs were based on survey data but the subsidized portions were
charged to the region as a whole. Plant protection measures are now carried out by govern-
ment agencies and so their cost also was charged against regional development rather than
against specific crops; the cost of plant protection per acre was taken from the Third Five-
Year Plan and the extent of coverage from estimates furnished by the Regional Director of
Agriculture. The subsidized costs as well as charges for credit, marketing, etc., are included
in miscellaneous. Average costs of production for the present, taken as the year 1960, are
presented in Table E-8.

Average costs of production in the period following full development, taken as the
year 1990, were calculated on the basis of the appropriate acreages, cropping patterns, and
intensities. The costs of plant protection, agricultural extension, credit, and subsidized
portion of fertilizer costs, etc., were included in the miscellaneous item. Tubewell water
charges, both public and private, were assessed against regional development rather than
against crop production. Future costs for labor, implements, draft animals, seeds, etc., were
calculated on the assumption that the projected total acreage, cropping intensities, and pro-
duction targets would be achieved. As can be calculated from the data in Table E-8, the
average per acre cost of production is expected to increase 117 percent while cropping inten-
sity increases 72 percent.


E-10










Table E-8


AVERAGE COST OF CROP PRODUCTION
(Rupees per acre)


Component Present Conditions Future Conditions
(85% Intensity) (146% Intensity)


Land Revenue

Hired Labor
Permanent
Casual

Bullocks
Interest and Depreciation
Maintenance
Fodder

Implements
Interest and Depreciation
Maintenance

Seeds
Fertilizer
Water
Miscellaneous

Total


6.2


6.8
7.8


13.1
7.1
14.6


3.1
4.6

12.1
1.3
8.3
5.0

90.0


9.3


10.8
14.2


14.3
12.1
17.1


16.5
7.6

23.9
36.2
9.0
24.0

195.0


In this same manner, the regional average cost of crop production was calculated for
the intervening decades and for the year 2000, both with and without regional development,
and the results are listed in Table E-9.

Table E-9


REGIONAL AVERAGE COST OF CROP
(Rupees per acre)


PRODUCTION


Year Without Development With Development


1960
1970
1980
1990
2000


90
105
110


90
105
175
195
205


E-If









VALUE OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION


Project benefits are based on all returns from farming minus all costs associated with
the added income. The value of production, Table E-6, minus the average cost of production,
Table E-8, multiplied by the appropriate acreage gives the net return to land and family labor.

Table E-10 summarizes estimates of annual gross value, production costs, and net
return per reclaimable acre, per average farm, and for the entire Northern Indus Plains with
and without a public development program from 1960 to 1970 by 5-year intervals and there-
after by 10-year intervals to the year 2000. It is assumed that all values change linearly
between the listed years.






































E-12









Table E-10

NET VALUE OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION
WITH AND WITHOUT DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM


Total Northern Indus Plains
Per Farm(a) Per Reclaimable Acre(b) (Million Rupees)
Year Gross Production Net Gross Production Net Gross Production Net
Value Cost Value Value Cost Value Value Cost Value
(Rupees) (Rupees) (Rupees) (Rupees) (Rupees) (Rupees)
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10)


With Development
Program

1960 1,589 867 722 165 90 75 3,423 1,868 1,555

1965 1,999 915 1,084 208 95 113 4,308 1,972 2,336

1970 2,854 1,011 1,843 296 105 191 6,149 2,180 3,969

1980 5,592 1,686 3,906 580 175 405 12,048 3,633 8,415

1990 8,324 1,878 6,446 864 195 669 17,935 4,048 13,887

2000 11,174 1,974 9,200 1,160 205 955 24,075 4,255 19,820


Without Development
Program

1960 1,589 867 722 165 90 75 3,423 1,868 1,555

1965 1,933 915 1,018 201 95 106 4,164 1,972 2,192

1970 2,413 1,012 1,401 251 105 146 5,200 2,180 3,020

1980 3,283 1,059 2,224 341 110 231 7,074 2,283 4,791

1990 4,215 1,059 3,156 438 110 328 9,082 2,283 6,799

2000 5,220 1,059 4,161 542 110 432 11,247 2,283 8,964


(a) Estimated number of farms = 2,154,500 of 9.6 acres each.
(b) Values are per cropped acre for 1960 and 1965.









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CONTENTS


APPENDIX F

INDIRECT BENEFITS FROM IRRIGATION DEVELOPMENT


Page

INTRODUCTION ............................ F-1
ESTIMATING SECONDARY BENEFITS FROM IRRIGATION DEVELOPMENT . F-3
ESTIMATING INDIRECT BENEFITS FROM IRRIGATION AGRICULTURE . . F-5
CONCLUSIONS ........................... F-9
SUMMARY ............................ F-10








INDIRECT BENEFITS FROM IRRIGATION DEVELOPMENT


Dr. Clark N. Crain
Professor of Geography and Regional Development
University of Denver, Denver, Colorado


INTRODUCTION


In addition to the primary or direct benefits, secondary or indirect benefits accrue
from development activities. The latter refer to the value of goods and services which result
indirectly from the development program, less any non-program costs that must be incurred
to realize these additional benefits. The two kinds of benefits include the net gains which
result from the program after taking into account conditions throughout the economy with and
without the program. Clearly a true statement of benefits directly or indirectly attributable
to a program must not reflect levels of economic activity which would have existed had the
development not been undertaken. Secondary benefits may stem from or be induced by the
program. Those benefits which stem from the program arise from the processing of goods pro-
duced directly as a result of the development, whereas induced benefits accrue from the
added spending by the goods produced in the development area.

National income can be increased three ways:

1. Resources may be employed at a more optimum level.

2. Employed resources may be used more efficiently by shifting to more productive
uses.

3. Unemployed resources may be put to productive use.

An increase in national income should result in increases in both demand and supply. If
increased demand is to result in real benefits, it must be met by increased supply; otherwise
inflation will occur. Similarly, if an increase in supply is not to result in uneconomic sur-
pluses, it must be met by a corresponding increase in demand. Only if secondary and
induced benefits accrue from an activity will these factors have an opportunity to remain in
balance.

There is disagreement among planners both as to the method of evaluation of secondary
benefits and whether or not they should be considered; but it seems obvious that, where a sector
thoroughly dominates the economy, a substantial increase in productivity in that sector will
have a massive impact on other sectors in terms both of demand and of induced or stimulated
development. In this case, it would be unreasonable to ignore these benefits. Where no
other economically effective resource exists which is capable of creating such an impact,
there is little doubt as to the importance of considering secondary benefits. For example,









C. Holtie, et al,(1) state:

"Irrigation farmers will need to purchase both capital and consumer goods.
It is further understood that the goods and service industries supplying these
goods will need a labor force along with other goods and services to fulfill
this demand, and that these non-farm income earners will in turn purchase
goods and service. It is further known that a certain amount of processing
and servicing of the agricultural products produced will occur in the immed-
iate area providing additional employment. The fundamental problem then
is to determine the earnings of the farm and non-farm sectors; or in terms of
population, how many local non-farm people dependent upon the irrigation
there will be for every one on the farm."

Considerable controversy also has centered around the theoretical problems associated
with indirect benefits. The character of the controversy depends on whether the problem is
viewed from a local, regional, or national point of view. N. D. Kimball and E. N. Castle(2)
note that:

"If it is assumed that there is mobility of the factors of production in the
economy and that there are constant or increasing costs in the supplying, pro-
cessing, and marketing industries affected by the project, secondary benefits
would be negligible from a national point of view when full employment and
price stability prevailed. (emphasis supplied)

From a national point of view, under conditions of full employment and price stability, the
factors of production have to be bid away from some other use in the economy, which amounts
to a transfer of resources, unless total production within the project is greater than production
with these resources employed elsewhere. This combination of circumstances, however, is
unlikely to develop in Pakistan. Here there is widespread unemployment (disguised and other-
wise), a substantial margin for more efficient use of resources, opportunity for more efficient
use of capacity, and the possibility of large reductions in cost of production.

Here the evaluation of indirect benefits is considerably different, especially when
viewed from a local or regional point of view. Secondary benefits are quite significant when
the products resulting from an irrigation project are locally processed and marketed. If,
regionally, either unemployment or excess capacity exists at the start, resources will be used
to produce something of value to the economy; and they will be used more efficiently than
in the absence of the project. Marketing and processing industries will be stimulated by
increased production. If such facilities are not adequate or are not available, outside capital
resources will be attracted to the area by the opportunity for profit. The demand for machinery,

(1) "Indirect Benefits of Irrigation Development," H. C. Holtje, et al, Technical Bulletin
517, March, 1956, Montana State Agricultural Experiment Station.
(2) "Secondary Benefits and Irrigation Project Planning," C. N. D. Kimball and E. M. Castle,
Technical Bulletin 69, May, 1963, Oregon State Agricultural Experiment Station.









seed, fuel, agricultural chemicals, food, clothing, appliances, housing, transportation, and
other services will increase as a result of additional spending by the cultivators and by others
who supply the demand for goods and/or services. There will be considerable growth in the
service industries and in the tax base of the community. In summary, although some may
argue that from a national point of view the consideration of secondary benefits in a fully
developed economy might be open to question, there can be no question that secondary bene-
fits are quite substantial in an underdeveloped economy and they are especially important
from a regional point of view.

Competition for capital always exists in a capital-short economy where development
is occurring. This can be a disadvantage to the extent that such competition may drain
capital from other sectors or other regions. However, where it is possible to create new
capital through rapid development of one sector, competition ceases to be a danger. Increased
spending then is matched by increased investment, both through movement of private savings
into investment postures and through taxation and regulation. In many ways, money tends to
be driven out of hoarding and into investment in an expanding economy. Furthermore, since
even some of the induced or indirect costs are partly value-adding, service sectors can expand
to meet the new demands without competing for capital with other sectors or regions.

ESTIMATING SECONDARY BENEFITS FROM IRRIGATION DEVELOPMENT


Many studies, mostly carried on in the United States by or for the United States
Bureau of Reclamation, have attempted to justify particular methods for predicting secondary
benefits. Nearly all these United States projects have underestimated secondary benefits.
Whether on the basis of dollar multiplier, labor multiplier, or a more complex forecasting
equation, the net benefit of a substantial increase in productivity in one sector invariably
has resulted in a greater improvement in the economy than was predicted.

A massive increase in productivity within the dominant sector of a less developed
economy should produce even more spectacular results because the improvement represents a
high percentage of the total productivity. Therefore, it will provide a greater stimulus for
other sectors, both in terms of money-labor multipliers, and in activities induced by new
local and by imported capital.

One of the traditional methods of attempting to isolate irrigation benefits is the com-
parison area approach. Non-irrigated and irrigated areas, apparently similar in all respects
except those relating to irrigation, are compared on the assumption that differences are
wholly the result of irrigation. Case histories of irrigation projects that have been in oper-
ation for many years have been analyzed to determine the rate of growth of local benefits,
both direct and indirect, attributable to irrigation development. Such analyses indicate the
degree of success of operating projects, and the results are used to project the probable
economic impact of proposed projects. The weakness of the method is the difficulty in select-
ing truly analogous areas for comparison and the inability to isolate the effect of a specific
project from the rest of the economy, especially in a highly developed region.









Another method presently used by the United States Bureau of Reclamation to obtain
the appropriate indirect benefit factor associated with costs is the application of indirect
benefit factors to the net direct benefits that enter the extended economic activity as the
result of a development project. The details for deriving these factors for particular cases
and commodities vary, depending upon the available data and the type of economic activity
giving rise to the indirect benefits.(3)

Another approach for computing indirect benefits, widely accepted in the United
States, is the income determination concept. It seeks to determine the income-generating
effects of primary investment.

The ratio concept also sometimes is used to determine the relationship between farm
and non-farm earnings, the farm earnings being considered the direct benefits and the non-
farm earnings the indirect benefits. Several alternatives are available for computing the
direct-indirect benefit ratio, such as the ratio of farm to non-farm income (gross or net), the
ratio of farm to non-farm investments, the ratio of farm to non-farm population, and the ratio
of farm to non-farm workers. C. Holtje, et al, conclude that the last is the best method for
determining the general relationship between farm and non-farm earnings. In the areas that
were studied in the U.S.A. the ratio was found to be between 1:1.3 and 1:1.4.

M. E. Marts(4) arrived at a direct-indirect benefit ratio by determinining the net
farm income and the income from the remainder of the local economy. The ratio was found
to be 1:1.27; that is, for every dollar of net farm income and farm labor payment a total of
$1.27 of entrepreneurial income, property income and labor income was created in the local
economy. Other studies using this method have found indirect benefit factors ranging between
1.12 and 1 .74(5). Projects that were suitable for the most intensive agricultural development
generated the greatest indirect benefits, probably because they had a more dominant position
with respect to other sectors.

Indirect benefits also can be estimated by means of an employment or income multi-
plier indicating the impact that one sector of the economy has on other sectors. The method
is based on the principle that the total benefits accruing locally are a multiple of the direct
benefits realized within the project. The employment multiplier can be related to a known
economic base to determine how much additional employment in the agriculture sector will
increase employment in the non-agriculture sectors. The economic-base approach, according
to A. J. Larson and W. E. Koenker(6)

"... has as its fundamental premise the notion that a region or local area can
economically exist and expand only because of its specialization in product

(3) "U. S. Bureau of Reclamation Manual of Benefits and Costs."
(4) '"An Experiment in the Measurement of Indirect Benefits of Irrigation," M. E. Marts,
U. S. Department of Interior, 1950.
(5) "Use of Indirect Benefit Analysis in Establishing Repayment Responsibility for Irrigation
Projects," M. E. Marts, Economic Geography, April, 1956.
(6) "Estimated Indirect Benefits from North Dakota," A. J. Larson and W. E. Koenker,
North Dakota Economic Studies, No. 6, February, 1961.








output, part of which is exported and sold to other regions. Income from
these exports provides the foundation on which non-export business can
thrive. Those industries which produce goods all or part of which are
exported from the local area are classified as basic. The remaining indus-
tries which provide goods and services for the local area are variously
classified as non-basic, service, residential, etc."

The employment multiplier is calculated by adding 1 to the service-basic employment ratio.

Finally, a simpler method of describing and/or estimating indirect benefits is the
straight income multiplier. This involves recognition that each increase in income will be
partially spent for goods and services, thus setting off a chain reaction which creates more
income and employment at each increase. The multiplier indicates the increase in income
resulting from a unit increase in agricultural income.

One of the difficulties encountered in using any of these methods in West Pakistan is
that the entire complex of the economy and the farmer's reaction to it is basically different
from those found in more highly developed economies. In a developed economy, which
starts from a highly commercial, cash-economy production base, agriculture contributes only
a relatively small percentage to the external economy. In contrast, agriculture is the domin-
ant sector in West Pakistan and any large increase in production will result in a very signifi-
cant relative increase in flow of money into the external economies. Also, the average farm
is so close to a wholly subsistence status that any development which will result in the farm
operating on commercial or case basis, even in part, represents a revolutionary change. It
is because of these differences that standard systems of economic analysis fail. A 10 to 15
percent increase per year in farm production in any portion of a highly developed country
such as the United States results in only limited secondary benefits within the economy. In
contrast, in West Pakistan a 10 to 15 percent increase in agricultural production in a sector
which dominates the economy will have a substantially higher impact on the entire regional
and national economy. In the United States irrigation has only a local response, since a
project area cannot be isolated from the stimulating effects of the highly developed economy,
and irrigation of a previously undeveloped area simply allows local areas to participate in
the larger economy. In West Pakistan it is the development of agriculture per se which must
act as the stimulus for the rest of the economy.


ESTIMATING INDIRECT BENEFITS FROM IRRIGATION AGRICULTURE

Irrigation in the Northern Indus Plains will result in substantial direct benefits and in
even greater secondary or indirect benefits. Where projects already are in operation, eco-
nomic activity is evident in investment and operating expenditures by private parties which
produces a volume and value of products that spreads throughout the local economy. With
the investments proposed in the regional plan, a volume and value of products will ensue
which will spread throughout the entire economy, creating a significant value-added factor
to the society. It is necessary to determine how much value-adding will occur in the economy
as a result of the overall program. Certainly, it will be much greater than it is now, and
due to the overwhelming demand on agriculture, it will be much larger than would be real-
ized if the funds were used for non-agricultural development.
F-5









Secondary benefits are easier to describe than to quantify. The paucity of data and
lack of agreement as to method add to the difficulty. Indirect benefits cannot be measured
precisely; nevertheless, their characteristics are based on economic reasoning. The purpose
of calculating indirect benefits in West Pakistan is not to determine whether or not the project
is feasible (primary benefits are entirely adequate for this) but to provide a measure of the
impact that regional development may have on the economy and to supply an advance indica-
tion of the kind of decision-making which will be required following implementation of the
interim program. Thus, an approximate value for indirect benefits can be reconciled with
these limited objectives and provide useful guidance for future planning.

The development program takes place where irrigation is not new. Calculation of
direct and indirect benefits must take into full consideration the with- and without-project
principle and the secondary costs necessary to realize these benefits. Because of its simplicity,
the regional-income multiplier principle has been chosen for measurement of the indirect
effects of irrigation development in the Northern Indus Plains. A multiplier factor applied to
projected direct benefits was chosen as the most practical means of estimating indirect bene-
fits. The regional multiplier stresses the inter-relations of sectors within the economy and
indicates how the inputs in one sector (in this case, agriculture) spreads to other sectors,
directly or indirectly.

It is apparent that much of the indirect benefits will accrue to industries directly
related to the agriculture sector either through demands for goods and services or through pro-
cessing and handling products. Economic theory holds that the income elasticity of demand
for services is higher than for agricultural and manufactured products, indicating that after
some basic needs are met increases in income result in a greater demand for services than for
products. This implies that considerable stimulus will be felt by the service industries and in
other industries closely associated with agriculture. As these industries expand with demand,
they, in turn, will influence sectors not directly related to agriculture, thus expanding
employment, providing a growing market for capital investment, shifting more savings into
investment activity, and reducing imports and other leakages.

It seems certain that if the primary goals of the program are attained, the activity
induced in other sectors can result in a viable and balanced economy. While the monetary
value of secondary benefits cannot be predicted with great accuracy, the fact that secondary
benefits are generated is beyond question; and with the truly impressive primary benefits pro-
jected, equally impressive development can be expected in other sectors of the economy.

Calculation of the multiplier requires knowledge of the marginal propensity to save,
tax, and import. These constitute the so-called leakages which tend to reduce the magnitude
of the multiplier. Although detailed accurate data on these marginal propensities are not
available and a highly reliable multiplier cannot be calculated, it is possible to estimate
development with sufficient accuracy to provide acceptable guidelines for anticipating future
planning requirements.
It is frequently assumed that new earnings entering the internal economy stream have a
raw multiplier value of 8 or 9 before leakages of various kinds, including hoarding, are accounted
for. A crude but reasonable multiplier factor of 3.2 is obtained by using average national
figures presented in the Perspective Plan (1965-85). If it is assumed that the marginal
F-6









relationships and the multiplier are similar regionally, the multiplier can be applied to net
direct benefits in order to arrive at net indirect benefits after it has been revised downward
to account for secondary costs and leakages.

Even when leakages, elasticity factors, and other variables can be quantified with
some accuracy, there seldom is agreement as to the specific value of a multiplier. In studies
of the theoretical effects of the PL-480 program in Pakistan, Beringer and Ahmad(7) assumed
that a marginal propensity of zero to tax and to import would develop a multiplier with a
value of more than 8 in six rounds of local currency accumulations with PL-480 wheat. After
including leakages, taxes, and other losses, they computed the multiplier to be 2.04. This
involved expenditures for consumption goods only and included no capital expenditure and no
indigenous stimulus to other sectors. Presumably, if service sectors had been added, the local
currency accumulations would have changed significantly.

Similar studies, involving capital expenditures and significant increases in productiv-
ity, agree that a multiplier of about 2 or slightly more is reasonable. Where the ratio of the
value of the increase in production to the total economy is high, the impact will be even
greater, assuming that elasticities of demand are satisfied and that production remains
responsive to both foreign and domestic markets. In the absence of accurate data on input-
output flows between sectors and on marginal propensities to save, to tax, and to import, the
multiplier used herein has been limited to a maximum value of 2.

However, this conservative multiplier has not been applied evenly throughout the
plan period. The efficiency of new development in producing currency accumulations in an
undeveloped economy will be low at first and then will rise. Primary benefits of 150 million
rupees are projected for the development program for 1965. By then, other sectors are not
seriously affected, imports and other leakages are not materially reduced, and taxation and
savings have not had time to react to the new productivity. For these reasons, it is assumed
that in this period only a single round of distribution expenditure will have been added to the
economy and that the initial costs for facilities, higher leakages, and input-output frictions
will reduce the multiplier factor to a value of 1.0. Increased efficiency, smoother input-
output flows, and better balance among the economic sectors will cause the multiplier factor
to increase in value as development progresses.

By the end of the plan period, direct benefits of 10,850 million rupees are projected.
By this time, at least six rounds of expenditure involving the other economic sectors can be
anticipated. Imports and other leakages will have been reduced and so a multiplier factor of 2
has been applied to the figures for the year 2000.

Between 1965 and 2000, leakages will decrease unevenly, and the non-agriculture
sectors will be subjected to accelerated effects as early requirements for construction of
facilities, training of management, and acquisition of tools and techniques are met. After the
basic requirements are met, the effectiveness of new production will increase at a more rapid
rate.

(7) "The Use of Agricultural Surplus Commodities for Economic Development in Pakistan,"
C. Beringer and 1. Ahmad, Monographs in the Economics of Development, No. 12,
Institute of Development Economics, Karachi, January, 1964.
F-7









There are too many unknowns, including rates of response in other sectors, to provide
precise values for the multiplier factor through the years 1965 to 2000. Subjective estimates
of some of the variables, such as elasticity of demand, propensity to save, to tax, and to
import can be made, however.

Considering these trends and using applicable statistical data from both United States
and Pakistan development studies, the multiplier factor was increased from 1 to 2 between
1965 and 2000 as follows:

Year Multiplier Factor

1965 1.0
1970 1.1
1980 1.4
1990 1.8
2000 2.0

C. Beringer and I. Ahmad(7) state that their studies on the multiplier effect of PL 480
wheat indicate that increased productivity would result in an immediate six-round expenditure
distribution leading to a net multiplier of over 2. It is assumed that leakages at the outset
will be too great to achieve this. The rate at which the multiplier factor will grow will
depend upon the effects of rapid increases in productivity and on the ability of the people to
shift from a subsistence base to an expanding economic activity.

The 1959-60 value of the Gross National Product (GNP) was about 36,000 million
rupees of which agriculture contributed between 50 and 60 percent directly and perhaps as
much as 80 percent both directly and indirectly. Of agriculture's share of the GNP, West
Pakistan accounted for about 7,700 million rupees. By the year 2000 the Northern Indus Plains
area alone will be providing direct benefits of 10,850 million rupees. Furthermore, nearly
all of this will enter the economic stream as income from commercial crops. It is obvious that
the impact on the regional economy will be enormous and that the multiplier effect, even con-
servatively, will provide an enormous stimulus to other economic sectors.

Gross National Product, the value of national income, and similar standard economic
data are broken down as between East Pakistan and West Pakistan. Excepting for very general
estimates, the project area is not separated from West Pakistan because few pertinent data
apply to the project area alone.

However, beginning with 1965, the value of agricultural products from the project
area are fairly well known. Primary benefits resulting from the project, therefore, are pre-
dicted with considerable confidence. According to best available estimates, production
values in the agriculture sector are expected to increase about sixfold from 1965-2000.

Even if agriculture continued to contribute only 50 percent of the GNP in the project
area and indirect effects were nil, the impact of the increase in productivity would be very
substantial. If other sectors respond and the input-output flow develops as anticipated, the
effect will be much greater.









However, analysis of the region indicates an even more profound effect. It is here
where productivity in the agriculture sector is projected to reach at least 24,000 million
rupees per year, that the full impact on the economy will be felt.

Induced demands for processing, supplies, equipment, and services will be most strongly
felt within the region. Insofar as these demands are met, the regional economy will advance
rapidly in all sectors as internal flows between sectors develop and grow. Furthermore, the
effect of bringing the 78 percent of the population currently at subsistence levels into an
effective and participating rate within the region will have a profound influence, not only
economically but politically, culturally, and socially as well.


CONCLUSIONS

In calculating indirect benefits, it is necessary to bear in mind the dominant role
which agriculture plays with respect to the total Gross National Product. The best estimates
place the GNP at about 40,000 million rupees in 1965. The direct factor value of agriculture
was nearly 20,000 million rupees or approximately 50 percent of the total. In addition, it is
estimated that 60 percent of the value-added worth of all other sectors combined is at least
indirectly involved with agriculture. Thus, about 80 percent of the total GNP was dependent
upon agriculture and would be influenced immediately by any change in the agricultural
sector.

There is reason to believe that the influence of agriculture may be greater than esti-
mated. In the Northern Indus Plains 78 percent of the population live in rural areas and con-
sume about two-thirds of the farm production. Fairly accurate estimates can be made of the
cash value of such consumption, but this does not enter the stream of goods and services and
does not encourage commerce. In fact, a large percentage of the regional population does
not participate effectively in the regional economy and has little or no influence upon it.
Production of cash surpluses by this group will have a profound influence on the entire
economic structure of the region. This effect goes far beyond the quantitative estimates of
rupee benefits. The change will not only add to the internal flows of currency, but will per-
mit the entire population to participate in market activities. Thus, the influence of a pro-
duction increase on indirect benefits will be greater than a similar increase would be in a
more developed economy.

Secondary benefits, as well as the ratio or multiplier used in estimating them, usually
are underestimated. There is considerable evidence that in an expanding economy a signifi-
cant impetus from a dominant sector triggers rapid expansion in other sectors.

Nevertheless, conservative projections are made in calculating the influence of the
development program for the Northern Indus Plains. For example, although in the long run
savings provide the basic source of capital (either directly or through taxation), the increased
savings anticipated from this development are considered a leakage. Indirect benefits have
been calculated using a variety of methods and considering both a range of direct benefits and
of several variables such as leakages, initial induced costs, dominance of agriculture in GNP,
etc. For comparison, without-project direct benefits have been calculated and expanded into
indirect benefits using the same methods.









Secondary costs and other considerations are assumed to limit the size of the indirect
benefit multiplier to a range of between 1 and 2. On this basis the present worth of net
indirect benefits will reach a total of at least 22,000 million rupees, given present worth of
net direct benefits to be about 11,000 million rupees.

The net primary benefits to be expected from the project are fairly-well documented.
Although there is no completely valid method for prediction of secondary benefits, it is antici-
pated that they will fall somewhere near the figures indicated by use of the multiplier. In
any event, they will be highly significant. Furthermore, it appears certain that, provided
decision-making keeps pace with primary development, the secondary benefits will provide
the impetus for a rapid and wide-range economic development leading to a balanced economy.
The significance of the triggering effect on the national economy is difficult to overestimate,
especially as agriculture now influencing 80 percent of the GNP is projected to increase about
6 percent per year compounded between 1960 and 2000.


SUMMARY


In projecting economic gains with respect to their contribution to the overall goals
and objectives of the regional plan, it is reasonable to assume that the secondary or indirect
benefits are a measure of that contribution. In other words, whereas benefit-cost analysis may
determine the immediate feasibility of a project, only by inclusion of secondary benefits can
a realistic evaluation of the project accomplishments be obtained.

When secondary benefits are included along with primary, the distinction between
them becomes unclear, for in terms of the overall regional goals and objectives, all benefits
become primary, and growth and development of all sectors must be considered.

The ultimate measure of the success of the regional development plan will be its total
effect upon the largest possible number of people. And such improvement is, in reality, a
primary benefit, even though as far as benefit-cost analysis is concerned it may be indirect.


F-10




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CONTENTS


APPENDIX G

HUMAN RESOURCES


INTRODUCTION .................... .
DEMOGRAPHY ..................... .
POPULATION PROJECTIONS . . . . . . .
LANGUAGE AND LITERACY . . . . . . . .
AGE AND SEX DISTRIBUTION OF POPULATION . . .
RACE AND RELIGION .................. .
URBAN-RURAL POPULATION CHANGES . . . . .
POPULATION-RESOURCE RATIO . . . . . . .
URBAN UNEMPLOYMENT . . . . . . . .
SUMMARY .......................


LIST OF TABLES


Title


Population Density Characteristics of Pakistan . . . . .
Population of the Principal Cities of Pakistan in 1951 and 1961 .
Pakistan's Projected Population 1986 . . . . . . .
Census and Projected Population . . . . . . . .
Projected Population of West Pakistan by Sex and Age . . .
Some Demographic Characteristics of West Pakistan . . . .
Projected School Enrollment in West Pakistan . . . . .
Distribution of Religious Groups in Pakistan 1961 . . . .
Urban-Rural Population Characteristics of 32 Countries . . .
Projected Urban-Rural Population Characteristics for West Pakistan
Estimated Urban Population Growth in Pakistan 1960 to 1970 .
Unemployed Civilian Labor Force in Urban Areas . . . .
Labor Force and Employment 1950 to 1985 . . . . .


Page

G-1
G-3
G-5
G-8
G-10
G-10
G-11
G-13
G-14
G-16


Table
No.

G-1
G-2
G-3
G-4
G-5
G-6
G-7
G-8
G-9
G-10
G-11
G-12
G-13


Page

G-2
G-4
G-5
G-6
G-7
G-9
G-9
G-10
G-11
G-11
G-12
G-14
G-15









LIST OF FIGURES


Figure Following
No. Title Page

G-1 Census and Projected Population . . . . . . . . . G-6
G-2 I.A.C.P. Rates of Population Growth West Pakistan . . . . G-6
G-3 Age Pyramids West Pakistan . . . . . . . . . G-10
G-4 Urban Population Growth .................. . G-12




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