Citation
Northern Indus Plains, regional plan

Material Information

Title:
Northern Indus Plains, regional plan development and use of the water resources of the Indus Basin
Added title page title:
Development and use of the water resources of the Indus Basin
Creator:
West Pakistan Water and Power Development Authority
Tipton and Kalmbach
Place of Publication:
Lahore
Denver
Publisher:
The Authority
Tipton and Kalmbach
Publication Date:
Language:
English
Physical Description:
v. : ill. (some col., some folded), col. maps ; 29 cm.

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Water resources development -- West Pakistan -- Indus Basin ( lcsh )
Genre:
non-fiction ( marcgt )
Spatial Coverage:
Pakistan

Notes

Funding:
Electronic resources created as part of a prototype UF Institutional Repository and Faculty Papers project by the University of Florida.
Statement of Responsibility:
West Pakistan Water and Power Development Authority ; Tipton and Kalmbach, Inc.

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University of Florida
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University of Florida
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Resource Identifier:
05953802 ( OCLC )

Full Text
REGIONAL PLAN
NORTHERN INDUS PLAINS
DEVELOPMENT AND USE OF THE
WATER RESOURCES OF THE INDUS BASIN
VOLUME I REPORT
WEST PAKISTAN WATER AND POWER DEVELOPMENT AUTHORITY
TIPTON AND KALMBACH, INC. ENGINEERS




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TIPTON AND KALM BACH, INC.
300 INSURANCE, BUILDING
831-14TH STREET
DENVER, COLORADO 80202
OLIN KALM BACH, PRESIDEN'
.4. E. KNUE, JR9VICE PRES. PHONE (303) 244-2944' CABLES:
C. W. MEHRING, VICE PRES.
A. J. DEUTSCH, TREASURER ARTIP DENVER
F. L. KIRGIS, SECRETARY TIPAK LAHORE
R.J. TIPTON, CHAIRMAN OF THE BOARD July 1, 1967
Mr. A. G. N. Kazi, S.K.
Chairman, Water and Power Development Authority
Lahore, West Pakistan
Dear Mr. Kazi:
Transmitted herewith is our recommended Development Plan for the Northern Indus Plains region of West Pakistan. The Plan reflects the program
objectives and development guidelines which have been established by WAPDA
and Government. It calls for accelerated development of the ground-water
resources of the region through the construction of more than 28,000 large capacity tubewells by 1980. With integrated development and distribution of ground water and surface water, the latter augmented by the storage and diversion works of the Indus Basin Project, drainage hazards to the irrigated lands will be eliminated, irrigation water supplies to the region will be increased more than two-fold, and the agricultural economy will exhibit the
growth and productivity which are associated with modern irrigated agriculture.
Development after 1980 is described in the context of the kinds of physical works which ultimately will be required to sustain the economy and
to achieve full development of the surface-water resources of the Indus Basin.
The key feature of future development is the Indus Plains Reservoir, which
will provide 20 million acre feet of off-channel storage in upper Thai Doab to capture and regulate for beneficial use most of the remaining surplus flow
of the Indus River.




Mr. A. G. N. Kazi, S.K.
July 1, 1967
Page Two
A report of this kind necessarily is replete with statistical data,
economic projections and various analyses and water studies which can only be described numerically. These are required to show the scale of things and to demonstrate the workings of concepts. Of much more importance than the numerical values themselves are the development concepts to which they pertain. Whereas the various economic projections may be subject to frequent revision during the period of the Plan, the development concepts will, in our opinion, remain valid for any conceivable combination of circumstances which may arise in the future.
We wish to acknowledge the assistance of the staff of the Ground Water and Reclamation Division who participated in the preparation of this report; and the cooperation of the Water and Soil Investigations Division in the collection and compilation of much of the basic data. Notwithstanding the vital contributions of the WAPDA staff, we take sole responsibility for the views and recommendations given herein.
RespectfulIly submitted,




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PREFACE
Civilization in the Indus Plains extends back more than 4,000 years, embracing people of more diverse origins and cultures than are found in the history of any of the other classical riverine environments of the World. The common denominator that linked the many peoples who occupied the region always has been their preoccupation with bringing water to the land. In that sense, the history of civilization in the Indus Plains parallels the history of irrigation, and without exception, the storied periods of the region correspond to the periods of greatest progress in the development of water resources.
Recent experience in the Northern Indus Plains typifies a sequence of events, not uncommon in the history of resource development, wherein efforts to solve a particular problem have led to development of a resource of singular importance to the economy. In West Pakistan the problem is drainage of irrigated lands the primary resource is ground water. Recognition of the potentialities of the ground-water resource of West Pakistan gradually evolved from the efforts of a few dedicated individuals who devoted their careers to the preservation of the irrigated agriculture established on such a grand scale in the Indus Plains.
A brief eight years ago, when the responsibility of implementing the land reclamation program was transferred from the Irrigation Department to WAPDA, primary emphasis was placed on the abatement and control of waterlogging and salinity by providing drainage to rehabilitate and preserve the agricultural lands. Vertical drainage employing tubewells was adopted as the means, and although there was recognition of the value of the supplemental irrigation supplies developed thereby, the prevailing concept was one of preservation of the existing agriculture. Almost unknowingly, but directly as a result of the rapidly changing balance between food supply and demand, the concept changed from a program designed to protect existing values to recognition that development of the ground water would yield benefits far beyond anything heretofore contemplated. Although adequate drainage remains the indispensable first requisite to further development, the supplemental irrigation supplies produced in the drainage process make it possible to set production goals whkch were impracticable under canal development alone.
As in the case of most resource development programs, periods of intense activity were interspersed with moratoriums on progress while the doubts of many concerning both the technical and the economic feasibility of ground-water development were considered and weighed, and problems that were not foreseen arose. Although the delays were exasperating to the proponents of groundwater development, it must be conceded that criticism and debate are essential to all new development, and, indeed, lend strength to the program by assuring that it goes forward on a sound basis. A case in point is the excellent work of the so-called "Revelle Committee" which culminated in an exhaustive report whkch endorsed the concepts that had been implemented by WAPDA and con firmed the technical and economic feasibility of ground-water development. Nevertheless, questions remain in some quarters. The issues of vertical versus horizontal drainage, standards for quality of irrigation water, the life of tubewells, ground-water balance, salt balance, and public versus private development of ground water have been, and undoubtedly will continue to be, debated.




The plan for development of the Northern Indus Plains described in this Report places great emphasis on accelerated development of ground-water supplies, proposing what may appear to many as an optimistic, if not improbable, rate of construction of new works. This is purposeful. It is always sound planning policy to set optimistic objectives as technology never is static and the limits of the attainable have a way of retreating with time. In the construction carried out on the Indus Basin Project the original targets, whkch few believed could be met, have been surpassed. The rate at whkch tubewells are currently being constructed is further evidence that the pace of development proposed herein can be achieved. In any event, goals must reflect needs, and it is clear from any appraisal of the present status of agriculture against the future demands of the economy that a massive and sustained effort is required in West Pakisfan to assure the fullest possible development of all resources oriented toward agricultural production.
Modern Pakistan is committed to a new approach to the ancient problem of equating the water and land resources of the Indus Plains. The prospects are promising because the incorporation of ground-water management into the development technology results in a 700 percent increase in irrigation water supplies, and elimination of waterlog ging and salinity hazards. And the opportunities are greater than ever before because, with the amelioration of water supply and drainage problems, the stage will be set for a revolution in agriculture and consequent economic benefits which will dwarf the returns from traditional agriculture.




CONTENTS
Page
INTRODUCTION
SCOPEOFDEVELOPMENTPLAN...........~.......... .. 1
OBJECTIVES . . * * * * * 3
PART I
RESOURCES AND DEVELOPMENT
CLIMATE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
Ba sin Runoff . . . . . . . . . & . . . . . 8
Quality of Surface Water . . . . . . . . . . . 8
Utilization of Surface Water. . . . . . . . . . 12
TheAlluvial Aquifer.... . . . . & . . . . . 18
OccurrenceofGroundWater . . . . . . 18
Quality of Ground 'Water . . . . . . . . . . . 20
Quality of Ground Water in Relation to Use as Irrigation Supply . 21
Developmentof GroundWater...... . . . . .... 23
LAkID. * * * * * * * * * * . . * . . . 25
Landand Land Forms. *** * * * * * * * * * 25
Soils and Soil Characteristics . . . . . . . . 28
Soil Classification . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
Land Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
SalinityandAlkali. . . . . . . *. . a a * * 30
HU~~ RESOURCES. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
I NFRA.STRUCTURE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
PART II
AGRICULTURE
Land Holdings and Tenure . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
Cropping Patterns and Intensities. . . . . . . . . . . 38
I a....? n i.? a. C. Iha .,..I (~&L I r.* .4. Al




CONTENTS (continued)
Page
PART III
DEVELOPMENT CONCEPTS
BASIC CONCEPTS . . . *a . . .. as.. . a a a a a 55
PUBLIC WORKS AND THE ROLE OF PRIVATE DEVELOPMENT . . . . 55
COROLLARY PUBLIC WORKS . .. .. ... .. ..*. .. .. . .. 57
CONJUNCTIVE USE OF GROUND AND SURFACE WATER SUPPLIES...... 59
EXPLOITATION OF MARGINAL WATER RESOURCES . . . . . . 59
DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY. . . . . . . . . . . . . 60
PART IV
DEVELOPMENT PLAN
CRITERIA FORDEVELOPMENL.........W............... 63
Quality of Ground Water Considerations . . . . . . 63
Quality of Water Zones . . . . . . . . . . .63
Reclamation Areas *. .,......... *. . *.6
Cropping Patterns and Cropping Intensities" . . . . ]. .. 6
Irrgaton Water Requents......... ,. ....... 70
Surface-Water Supply and Distribution . . . . . . . . .71
Distributary Operations . . . . . . . . . *. 74
Main-Line Canal and Branch Operations . . . . 75
Canal Remodeling,. . . . . . . . . . 75
Outlet Remodeling . . . . ..*... . 78
System Gains and Losses and Ground-Water Recharge. .. . 79
Ground-ater Development................ ... 82
Nonsaline Zones *, . 82
Intermediate Zones [. .. . . a a. *6aat a... a[ 83
Tubewell Water Allowances . . . . . . . . . 83
Supplemental Drainage . . ............... 85
Implementation""". *i * . . . . . . a S 86
Project Areas *. *b ..... ..* *8
Rate of Development . 86
DEVELOPMENT PLAN FOR SUPPLY ANISTRBUTIONO
IRRIGATION WATER ... a * a a *s .*..... a a a .6* 90
Canal Headworks Requirements.............o.. p.'es.... 90
flperatins Rules onr Storage aind Distribution afr Irrtattnn SunIteI 100




CONTENTS (continued)
Page
Distribution of Supplies in a Critrcal Year.. .......a.....aa... aa 106
Canal Command Operations ..... . . . . 106
Reservoir and Link Canal Operations ... o. ....... .i .. 106
INTERIM DEVELOPMENT AND DISTRIBUTION OF IRRIGATIO SUPPLIE 06
AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT.... . . . . . . . . . 116
Growth of Intensities. i.5. ai a.aa'" as 116
Growth of Agricultural Productlon. . .. *aa a.... ..-*. 119
COROLLARY DEVELOPMENT . .....*..*.*.....*....... 121
PROJECT WORKS . . o 124
,rrgaionTubewells . a a a a aa aa a. aa *a a. a 126
Drainage Tubewells ..*a a.*a*aaa*aa.. 2
Canal and Outlet Remodeling . . . . . . . . . 127
Elrifictio * . *. 128
Construction Schedule . . . . a . . . . a . 132
IMPLICATIONS OF DEVELOPMENT.... ... ...... 133
Hydrologic Balance . ............. .. . .i .. .. 133
Irrigation Supply Versus Demand[ . . . . . . . a .a .a 13
PART V
EVALUATION
PROJECT COSTS ... . .............. 140
Capital Costs a a a a a SS.*. a a a a a a a a a a 140
BENEFITS. **********************.**...........148
Primary Benefits . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 148
Secondary Benefits . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151
PART VI
FUTURE DEVELOPMENT
REQUIREMENTS AND TIMING OF FUTURE DEVELOPMENT .. .. .. .. 15
WATER SUPPLIES AND DIVERSION WORKS..... ... . 157
Dam and Reservoir. ... .. ... *. . :. .. . :.. . . 158
New Lnk System .. o.. .. .. .. ... .. .. ... ... 160




LIST OF TABLES
Table
No. Titl e Page
1 Annual Runoff of Western Rivers for the Period 1922-1963 .. ... 9
2 Indus River at Attock .. . . . *0. . * . . . 10
3 ihelum River at Mangla . . . . . . . . . . . 10
4 Chenab River at Marala . . . . . . a . . . 11
5 Western Rivers at Rim Stations .. .. .. .. . . .. . 11
6 Pre-Indus Basin Projects (IBP): Surface-Water Diversion and
Distribution W/orks... ... .. ... .. .. .. .. .. 13
7 Historic Deliveries at Canal Headworks (1947-1960) . . . . .14
8 Post-Indus Basin Projects (IBP): Surface-Water Diversion and
Distribution Works.--.. .. . .........- 15
9 Implications of Storage in Year of" Medlian Monthly'Runoff_ .. 12
10 Median Year Surface-Water Supplies Available for Development
in the Northern Indus Plains . .................. 17
11 SummaryofLandAreas. .. .. . . . . . . . . 22
12 Summary Data for On-Going Projects . . ........... 2
13 Projections of Private Tubewell Development. ..Prae . . . 26
14 Areas Served by On-Going SCARP Projects and Pivt
Development. *. 27
15 Summary of WASID Soil Surveys" . .i . . .. .. .. .. 31
16 Summary of WASID Land Classification Srveys 33
17 1960 Cropping Patterns . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
18 Estimated 1960 and 1965 Irrigation Water Requirements,
Supplies, and Shortages . . . . . . . . . . .. 40
19 Base Status of Agriculture 1959-1961 .... .. .. .. .. . 43
20 Index of Production and Productivity (1949-1950 =100) . . .. 44
21 1950-1 960 Changes in Crop Yields for Various Geographical
Regions a a . a a. 45
22 Projected Crop and Food Production in the Northern Indus Plains
Without Additional Reclamation Projects . . . . . . 47
23 Record Yields Obtained by Punjabi Farmers . . . . . . 49
24 Outstanding Farm Yields Obtained in California, U.S.A.. .. .. 50
25 Recent Yields from California Experiment Stations . . . . . 50
26 Future Potential Crop Yields Northern Indus Plains . . . . 51
27 Projected Crop Yields in the Northern Indus Plains. .. .. .. ... 53
28 Reclamation Areas . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
29 Future Cropping Patterns ; . . . . . . . 67
30. .Futu.re Crope Are by gricutua Zne....- L a6




Table
No. Title Page
35 Canal Remodeling Ratios . . . . . . . . . . . 78
36 Reservoir Evaporation Losses .. . .. .. . .. ... . . 79
37 Headworks Pond Losses .. .. .. . . . . .. ... . 79
38 River Gain and Loss Coefficients. .. ... ......... .. .. 80
39 Link Losses * * . .* * . . . . 81
40 Canal and Branch Losses .* . . . . . . . . . . 82
41 Tubewell VWater Allowances . . .. .. "'' "" . .. 8
42 Supplemental Drainage Requirements . .. .. .. ... 8
43 Future Project Priorities and Related Data . . ...** 91
44Summary of Areas and Water Supply Facilities for Proposed:!
Development Plan. ... .. .. .. .. ... . . . . . 92
45 Schedule of Normal Surface-Water Deliveries at Canal Headworks 94
46 Schedule of Normal Deliveries Less Historic Mean Deliveries
at Canal Headworks. .....*...*...... . 95
47 Schedule of Minimum Canal Deilveries to Canal "Headworks . . 96
48 Schedule of Maximum Canal Deliveries to Canal Headworks. ... 97
49 Schedule of Maximum Deliveries Less Normal Deliveries at
C anal Headworcs . . . . . . . . . . . .. 98
50 Schedule of Normal Deliveries Less Minimum Deliveries at Canal i
Headworks . . . . . . .......... 99
51 Operating Criteria for Mangica Reservoir . . . . . . ..102
52 Operating Criteria for Tarbela Reservoir .. .. .. .. .. 102
53 Median Year Irrigation Supplies . . . . . . . . ..104
54 Reservoir Releases and Schedule of Diversions to Heads of Link
Canals for Median Year..... *.*. . . ***.. 105
55 Critical Year (1940-1941) Irrigation Supplies .. .. . . 107
56 Reservoir Releases and Schedule of Diversions to Heads of Link"
Canals for Critical Year 1940-1941 o. . . . . . . . 108
57 Water Supply Study for 1965 Median Year Conditions . . . . 111
58 Water Supply Study for 9970 Median Year Conditions . . . . 112
59 Water Supply Study for 1975 Median Year Conditions . . . . 113
60 Water Supply Study for 1980 Median Year Conditions . . . a 114
61 Water Supply Study for '1985 Median Year Conditions . . . . 115
62 Growt of Cropped Acreage and Intensit 1
63 Production of Important Crops with Proposed Reclamation Program.. .120
64 Projected Regional Crop and Food Production and Demand. .. .. 121
65 Fertilizer Requirements. . ... ... .. .. ... .... 123
66 Irrigaton Tubewells . . . . . . . . . a . . .125
6D r n a ~ T u e eI ... ....... .eas.. 2




Table
No. Title Page
72 Proposed Power Facilities . . . . . . . . . . 132
73 Water Requirements for 150 Percent Cropping Intensity for
Entire Reclamation Area . . . . . . . . . .137
74 Summary of Capital Costs .. .. .. .9. . ... .. .. .. 140
75 Sumnmarof Categories of Cost . . . . . . . ... .. 141
76 Capital Expenditures by Five-Year Plan Periods . . . . . 143
77 Annual Cost of Project Works and Cost of Water . . . . . 147
78 Net Primary Project Benefits .. .... .. ... .. .. 148
79 Net Value of Production .*. .. .. ... .. .. . .. ... 149
80 Estimated per Capita Rural Income . *........... 149
81 Food Production Versus Demand -Northern Indlus "Plais" ..... 151
82 Program Benefits. ... . ......9.*. . 153
83 Range of Demand for Irrigation Supplies on InusRierbeo
Kalabagh *. . ****************157 84 Divertable Supplies from th~e Indus Riv'er below Chasma. . . . 158
85 Areas Commanded by New Link System . . . . . . . 160




LIST OF FIGURES
Figure Fol lowing
No. Title Page
2 Regional Subareas . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
3 Political Divisions . . . . . . . . . 2
4 ~Status of Development . .. .. .. .. ............2
5emperatur ... ... .... ... ...
6 Effective Precipitation . . . . . . ...........8
7 Irrigation Water Requirement Index. . . '... ..8
8 Present Seasonal Distribution of Canal Supplies ...........8
9 Source of Canal Supplies Post IBP .... .. . .. .. 16
10 Depth to 'Water Table . .. ... . ::............... .. . 20
11 Quality of Ground 'Water . . . . 20
12 Private Tubewelt Development (1965) . . . -. . . ..24
13 Population . . . . . * * *. 34
14 Transportation. .. .. .. ... .. .. ... .. ... 34
15 l960 Seasonal Distribution of Crops *e. . ... ... 38
16 Agricultural Zones . . . . . . . . . . . ...38
17 1960 Cropping Intensity . . . . . . . . . . 40
18 Consumption of Fertilizers in Selected Countries . . . ...42
19 Average Crop Yields in Selected Countries . . . . . ...46
20 Northern Indus Plains Food Supply and Demand 1960-2000
Without Continuing Reclamation Program . . . . ...46
21 Comparative Yelds of Crops ................... 54
22 Future Seasonal Distribution of Irrigated Crops . . . . ...70
23 Land Use by Crops After Full Development.* . . . . . 70
24 Cropping Patterns and Growing Periods by Agricultural Zones ...70
25 Future Seasonal Distribution of Canal Supplies . . . . ...78
26 Project Areas and Sequence of Development . . . . ...92
27 Source of Surface Water to Canal Commands after Completion
of IBP WVorks... .. .. .. .. .. ... ... ... 100
28 Operating Criteria for Mangla Reservoir . . . . . ...102
29 Operating Criteria for Tarbela Reservoir . . . . . ...102
30 Growth of Irrigation Water Supplies and Requirements . . . 116
31 Electrification Facilities (66 kv and 132 kv systems) . . . . '132
32 Tubewell Construction Program . . . . . . . . . 132
33 Hydrologic Implications of Development . . . . . . . 134
34 Capital Expenditures for Reclamation Works . ..........144
asNet Renefits frnm Reginal Pan 1960 tn 2000 ] ]]148




F igure Fol lowtng
No. Title Page
40 New Indus Links System Kalabagh-Jhelumn-Chnlot-Burala
Location Map and Profile .. .. .... ... . .. ... 160
GLOSSARY AND ABBREVIATIONS. . .. .. ** 4......... 162
APPENDICES
VOLUME II ECONOMICS VOLUME !11 WATER AND AGRICULTURE VOLUME IV OPERATIONS STUDIES VOLUME V "rUBE WELLS VOLUME VI CANAL REMODELI NG




I NTRO DUCTI ON
SCOPE OF DEVELOPMENT PLAN
Agriculture is the dominant economic activity of Pakistan. Statistics for recent
years show that about half of the Gross National Product and nearly 80 percent of export earnings are directly produced by agriculture. Moreover, at least 60 percent of the value added by other sectors of the economy is derived from agricultural activities. Thus, 80 percent or more of the Gross National Product is dependent upon agriculture. As more than 80 percent of the population also is involved in agriculture, it follows that any changes in the agricultural economy must have profound and immediate effects on all sectors of the economy and population.
Agricultural development has been a primary objective of government policy since independence and, within the sector, irrigation water supply and drainage have received the highest priority in the allocation of development funds and other resources., A number of government agencies are involved in various aspects of the problems of water supply and drainage, but the major activities are concentrated in the Salinity Control and Reclamation Projects (SCARP) which are administered by the West Pakistan Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA).
The SCARP program is the outgrowth of decades of investigations, research, and
field experimental activities which were undertaken largely by the Irrigation Department. Between 1958 and 1960 WAPDA assumed responsibility for most of the functions of investigations, planning, and construction of development and reclamation projects. Under WAPDA's program the Indus Plains were divided into Northern and Southern regions. The boundary between the regions is at Gudu Barrage, the narrowest reach of the Indus Plains and historically the demarcation between the former provinces of Sind and Punjab (Figure 1). The development plan described herein is concerned with the Northern Indus Plains region which includes the following subareas: Right Bank Indus (D. I. Khan and D. C. Khcan); the interfiuvial lands of Thai, Chaj, Rechna, and Bani Doabs; and the Bahawalpur Plain between the Sutlej River and the Thar Desert (Figure 2). The region comprises all or part of twentytwo administrative districts (Figure 3).
The first project under the regional reclamation program SCARP 1 in Central
Rechna Doab was activated in 1960. This was followed by SCARP 2 in Chaf Doab in 1962, SCARP 3 in Lower Thai Doab in 965, and SCARP 4 in Upper Rechna Doab in 1966. Project plans for SCARP 5 in Lower Rechna Doab were completed in 1966, and planning for SCARP
6 which will include the Panjnad-Abbasia canal commands in the Lower Bahawalpur Plain will be completed in 1967. The present status of project planning and implementation is show~.n : n Fire A.




The general terms of reference which have been applied to the regional planning studies are as follow:
1. WAPDA's mandate in connection with agricultural development is limited to the
planning and construction of water supply and subsurface drainage works and appurtenant power generation and distribution facilities. Broadly speaking,
surface drainage works also are included, but it is assumed that these requirements are adequately provided under various programs of the Irrigation Department and other agencies. For this reason flood protection and storm drainage
works are considered only where they form an integral part of water development
or reclamation projects.
In any event, WAPDA has no authority for operation and maintenance of irrigation works nor for providing any of the other supplies and services required for modern agriculture such as selected seeds, fertilizers, plant protection, extension services, and the like. However, the regional plan considers in appropriate detail the requirements, costs, and benefits of these and other essential
agricultural inputs.
2. A basic policy of this development program is to concentrate reclamation activities on lands within the existing irrigation boundaries. In a typical canal
system the irrigated acreage will be increased by about 10 percent as all culturable land within the irrigation boundary, including lands which are not commanded by canals, will be served by tubewells.
This policy recognizes that the existing canal systems in general embrace the
best agricultural lands, that these lands have been leveled and otherwise developed for irrigation, and that they are populated with experienced cultivators and
agricultural artisans. Moreover, as most of the deteriorated soils within the
canal commands can be quickly and effectively reclaimed by simple, inexpensive leaching techniques, there are no economic advantages in developing new
lands. Accordingly, as water, not land, is the Imiting factor in agricultural development in West Pakistan, maximum benefits will be derived by promoting
optimum development of the established irrigated areas.
3. The target level of development of land and water resources contemplated under
the SCARP program is that required to attain an average annual cropping intensity of 150 percent on the culturable lands within the project areas. This is about the optimum practical intensity that can be achieved by a reasonably
efficient cultivator with traditional land, water, and labor management practices. With this level of development and with prudent management, the avera* amwl ersn neooi holing hrta sussec odn




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EIIIIIJ Project Areos Completed
Projects for which Feo s ibilit Proje ct, for which Feo Si bil ity a 4 1 International Boundary




the selection of their cropping program and with adequate and reliable supplies for all culturable lands there will not be a tendency to spread water too thinly,
a practice that leads to salinization of the soil.
It should be emphasized that a cropping intensity of 150 percent does not represent the maximum level of development which can be realized in the Northern
Indus Plains. In fact, a large proportion of the advanced farmers who have
developed supplemental ground-water supplies in recent years have achieved
intensities of 175 percent or more. However, the attainment of a cropping
intensity significantly greater than 150 percent may involve major modifications of cropping patterns and will require an increased labor supply or mechanization of some activities changes which the typical farmer is unlikely to adopt in the
near future.
4. Pending adjudication of the surface water rights of the Indus Basin between the
Northern and Southern regions of the Indus Plains, development of surfacewater resources for the Northern Indus Pla~ns will be governed by the letter and
spirit of the Sind-Punjab draft agreement of 1945. As interpreted herein, this
agreement requires firstly, a certain minimumn schedule of deliveries to the
barrage heads in the Southern Indus Plains, and secondly, that the consequences
of development in the Northern Indus Plains must not depreciate significantly
the quality of surface supplies available to the Southern Indus Plains.
OBJECTIVES
The specific objective of regional development is to provide appropriate physical facilities to promote the development of modern irrigation agriculture in the Northern Indus Plains at a rate commensurate with the needs and the resources of Pakistan. Development, rather than production quotas, is the goal of the program. This recognizes the fact that wherever in the world modern irrigation is practiced successfully on a large scale, production nas far exceeded demand as well as planning targets, and the agriculture sector has met its obligations to the total economy.
It should be emphasized that the ultimate objective of development is the creation of a viable economy. In this context agricultural development is an intermediate goal, but a vital one. Efficient, productive and flexible agriculture sectors, wherever they are found in the world, are associated with expanding, productive, and complex economies. Whereas subsistence and nonproductive agriculture sectors act as a drain on the total economy, effectively inhibiting economic growth, productive, expanding agriculture acts as a stimulus to development. Accordingly, exploitation of the water and land resources o -teNrhr Indus Pns s exece to Ieut *n mor tha sil selsfenyi




1.* The carefully planned and phased introduction of certain few but essential
ingredients into a traditional or subsistence irrigation economy inevitably will
trigger and sustain a revolution in agriculture. These essentials are water
supply and drainage, improved seeds and fertilizers. Given these ingredients
in the right proportions, and culturable land and efficient cultivators, the
agricultural economy will experience rapid change and growth; without them,
no appreciable change can occur.
Other kinds of activities such as government institutional programs agricultural
extension, credit and marketing services, communications, and the like are
useful, but they will not influence the growth of the agricultural economy in a significant way in the early stages of development, and they will surface when
needed as the economy matures. The same applies to the gamut of value-adding
activities which outflow from development in the private sector. In short, the
so-called infrastructure inevitably follows rather than leads agriculture, and
the combination of political pressure and profit motives, which arise in a viable
agricultural economy, insure that the important elements of the infrastructure
will be available as the needs develop.
2. The evolution of modern irrigated agriculture in this kind of terrane invariably
involves several distinct stages of water resource development. Each stage, in
turn, commonly features temporary overdevelopment of water resources, particularly of ground-water supplies where they are available. But the wealth
so created then funds other water supply works which would be prohibitively
costly in the early stages of development, but which are feasible in the advanced
stages if only to sustain the values that have been established. Finally, as the
economy becomes more diversified some of the water and land resources devoted
to agriculture commonly are converted to higher uses.
In the contrary situation land resources, rather than water, are overdeveloped.
Under those conditions agriculture cannot prosper, and the values needed to justify and finance further development are never established. This has been
the history of irrigated agriculture in the Indus Plains.
The implications are clear. Firstly, it is, in all likelihood, not possible to plan
a truly Ultimate development program, and even if it were, such a program
would always be prohibitively costly in relation to contemporary values.
Secondly, of all the factors implicit to agricultural development, water and
drainage are paramount. Indifferent soils that are properly drained can be
brought up to high levels of production through use of various amendments and
management practices, but there is no substitute for water, and no way of




standards derived from dissimilar environments which commonly represent nearoptimum conditions in highly developed economies. This is especially important during the early stages of development when other essential inputs are in short supply. The indiscriminate use of quality-of--water standards derived from a highly sophisticated agricultural economy can result only in rejection of useable water supplies, and consequently land, which have great economic value especially in the early stages of development.







PART I
RESOURCES AND DEVELOPMENT
The Northern Indus Plains region features a favorable climate for perennial
agriculture; abundant culturable lands which are highly developed for irrigation; a massive system of surface-water storage, diversion and distribution works, rapidly expanding ground-water development for irrigation, and large undeveloped resources of ground water and surface water; the foundations of an adequate infrastructure; and a large rural population with strong traditions in irrigated agriculture. This combination of resources describes a highly favorable environment for rapid and intensive development of agriculture. Considering the magnitude of all of the factors involved, the prospects for irrigation development in the Northern Indus Plains probably are unique in world experience. There are no obvious restraints to development other than the availability of funds to finance the works required to mobilize the resources for development.
CLIMATE
The climate of the region is nearly ideal for irrigated agriculture. The Hindu Kush and Himalaya Mountains form a barrier in the north that effectively protects the irrigated plains from northern cold fronts and associated storm activities violent windstorms, hail, and like phenomena. As daytime temperatures are warm to hot throughout the year and killing frosts are virtually unknown, agriculture can be practiced on a year-around basis. Precipitation is scanty but concentrated in the hot summer season when crop water requirements are highest.
The mean annual temperature ranges from 74F to 80F. Daily temperatures range from about 60F to 120F during the summer months, and from 35F to 75F dut'ing winter (Figure 5). The median annual effective precipitation ranges from about 16 inches at Sialkot in the north to 2 inches at Gudu in the south (Figure 6), and averages about 7 inches, two-thirds of Which falls during the monsoon season, from July to September.
Owing to the relatively high temperatures and the low and uneven seasonal distribution of rainfall, irrigation is necessary throughout the region to sustain profitable agricultural production. As shown in Figure 7, irrigation requirements vary widely over the region primari ly as a result of the patterns of distribution of temperature and rainfall. Annual irrigation requirements per unit area are approximately 35 percent higher in the southern portion of the region than in the north.




WATER
Surface Water
Basin Runoff. The region is traversed by the Indus River and its four major tributaries, the ihelum, Chenab, Ravi, and Sutlej Rivers, which join to form the Pan jnad River (Figure 8). As the eastern tributaries, the Ray? and the Sutlej Rivers, have been allocated to India for unrestricted use effective.AprI 1970, only the Indus Ri ver and the western tributaries, the Jhelum and Chenab Rivers, are involved in the future development of the West Pakistan. India also is entitled to withdraw minor amounts of water, principally during the summer months, from the Jhelum and Chenab Rivers. The runoff records used herein have been adjusted for future Indian withdrawals.
Runoff data for the Indus, Chenab, and ihelum Rivers, adjusted for the future
Indian withdrawals, are given in Table 1. The data represent 42 years of record for the rim stations at Marala on the Chenab River, Mangla on the ihelum River, and Attock at the confluence of the Inidus River and its malor right bank tributary, the Kabul River.
The total annual inflow at the three stations ranges from a high of 177 maf to a low of 111 maf with a mean of 140 maf. Approximately 66 percent of the mean annual inflow
is provided by the Indus River with the Chenab River accounting for 18 percent and the Jhelum River 16 percent.
Seasonal variability of runoff is considerably greater than annual variability for
all three rivers. Eighty percent or more of the annual runoff occurs during the period April through October, and 50 to 60 percent during three of the summer months June through August for the Indus and Chenab Rivers, and May through July for the Jhelum River. July commonly is the month of peak flow. Monthly runoff data for the three rivers and for the basin are given in Tables 2, 3, 4, and 5.
Quality of Surface Water. Most of the runoff of the Indus Basin is derived from
summer snowmelt and monsoon precipitation which move directly into the surface drainage by overland flow. With that uncomplicated history the surface water has little opportunity to accumulate mineral matter in solution as it is exposed only briefly to surficial
materials which are largely insoluble. This is reflected in the mineral composition and concentration of the surface waters where they enter the region. Analyses of samples collected at the rim stations at Attock, Mangla, and Marala show that the mineral content of the waters commonly falls in the range of concentration of 150 to 250 ppm dissolved
solids and consists mainly of the alkaline earths and bicarbonate. As the higher values commonly represent low flow conditions, the average mineral content of the surface water at the rim stations is less than 200 ppm.




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Table 1
ANNUAL RUNOFF OF WESTERN RfVERS FOR THE PERIOD 1922-1963
(All value% in MAF and adjusted for future withdrawals by India)
Indus Jhel um Chenab Indus ihel um
Year at Attock at Manigla at Marala Total & ihelum & Chenab
(I) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)
1922 106.89 25.28 22.29 154.46 132.17 47,57
1923 99.23 22.84 20.74 142.81 122.07 43.58
1924 109.81 27.03 20.18 157.02 136.84 47.21
1925 86.12 20.21 19.27 125.60 106.33 39.48
1926 88.29 22.25 21.32 131.86 110.54 43.57
1927 76.35 18.73 18.84 113.92 95.08 37.57
1928 96.30 26.75 21.04 144.09 123.05 47.79
1929 90.77 21.60 21.90 134.27 112.37 43.50
1930 104.59 26.80 25.43 156.82 131.39 52.23
1931 90.87 25.12 19.21 135.20 115.99 44.33
1932 93.03 21.12 20.48 134.63 114.15 41.60
1933 97.94 26.24 25.92 150.10 124.18 52.16
1934 92.47 16.82 21.12 130.41 109.29 37.94
1935 92.38 23.83 24.47 140.68 116.21 48.30
1936 96.65 25.00 25.70 147.35 121.65 50.70
1937 87.70 19.91 20.41 128.02 107.61 40.32
1938 97.88 22.82 28.58 149.28 120.70 51.40
1939 105.64 23.74 22.89 152.27 129.38 46.63
1940 81.45 15.81 17.77 115.03 97.26 33.58
1941 90.84 16.87 19.88 127.59 107.71 36.75
1942 106.35 25.27 27.65 159.27 131.62 52.92
1943 96.22 24.58 28.22 149.02 120.80 52. 80
1944 86.78 18.27 23.49 128.54 105.05 41.76
1945 99.31 20.85 24.75 144.91 120.16 45.60
1946 86.19 14.26 21.95 122.40 100.45 36.21
1947 77.01 15.76 25.19 117.96 92.77 40.95
1948 87.03 28.01 33.36 148.40 115.04 61.37
1949 95.73 24.30 25.96 145.99 120.03 50.26
1950 99.98 31.27 36.26 167.51 131.25 67.53
1951 71.99 19.93 20.20 112.12 91.92 40.13
1952 87.78 20.04 24.09 131.91 107.82 44.13
1953 88.75 18.35 23.94 131.04 107.10 42.29
1954 94.01 27.07 27.47 148.55 121.08 54.54
1955 82.31 17.98 27.22 127.51 100.29 45.20
1956 100.66 23.59 31.79 156.04 124.25 55.38
1957 85.70 32.90 32.83 151.43 118.60 65.73
1958 95.51 22.87 29.08 147.46 118.38 51.95
1959 109.53 30.78 36.37 176.68 140.31 67.15
1960 102.44 19.71 23.55 145.70 122.15 43.26
1961 89.32 20.31 29.46 139.09 109.63 49.77




Table 2
INDUS RIVER AT ATTOCK
Statistical Summary 1922-1963
(All values in MAF and adjusted for future withdrawals by India)
Monthly Mean Maximum Mirimum Median Dependable
Month %MAF Monthly Monthly Monthly (80%)
January 1.84 1.70 2.30 1.36 1.62 1.48
February 1.74 1.61 2.46 1.20 1.57 1.29
March 2.64 2.45 5.57 1.55 2.18 1.30
April I4.64 4.28 6.45 1.94 4.10 3.37
May 9.00 8.33 15.27 4.42 7.59 6.13
June 16.90 15.62 22.75 8.61 15.90 12.54
July 24.30 22.53 32.20 15.65 22.66 18.74
August 21.40 19.79 25.68 14.90 19.30 17.18
September 9.40 8.69 12.39 5.28 9.09 7.18
October 3.84 3.56 6.44 2.30 3.52 3.00
November 2.30 2. 12 3.52 1.70 2.08 1.87
December 2.00 1.85 2.60 1.42 1.79 1.64
Total 100.00 92.53 137.63 60.33 91.40 76.22
Table 3
JHELUM RIVER AT MANGLA
Statistical Summary 1922-1963
(All values in MAF and adjusted for future withdrawals by India)
Month Monthly Mean Maximum Minimum Median Dependable
%MAF Monthly Monthly Monthly (80%)
January 2.30 0.52 1.05 0.33 0.46 0.38
February 3.20 0.72 1.93 0.32 0.62 0.42
March 6.90 1.55 2.98 0.67 1.46 0.96
April 11.40 2.56 3.93 1.54 2.59 1.92
May 16.10 3.61 5.44 1.75 3.50 2.87
June 16.30 3.66 5.92 2.15 3.62 2.77
July 16.10 3.59 7.64 1.64 3.46 2.57
August 12.50 2.31 5.08 1.40 2.59 2.02




Table 4
CHENAB RIVER AT MARALA
Statistical Summary 1922-1963
(All values in MAF and adjusted for future withdrawals by India)
Month Monthly Mean Maximum Minimum Median Dependable
%MAF Monthly Monthly Monthly (80%)
January 2.02 0.50 1.22 0.24 0.45 0.32
February 2.55 0.63 1.87 0.26 0.52 0.37
March 4.15 1.02 3.09 0.48 0.87 0.61
April 5.20 1.28 2.39 0.67 1.30 0.86
May 8.61 2.12 4.42 1.05 1.99 1.53
June 13.90 3.42 506 1.63 3.41 2.83
July 22.20 5.47 7.84 3.48 5.09 4.51
August 22.00 5.40 8.37 3.49 5.09 4.31
September 11.70 2.87 6.83 1.61 2.65 1.91
October 3.94 0.97 3.22 0.48 0.80 0.66
November 1.98 0.49 1.43 0.32 0.43 0.38
December 1.75 0.43 1.15 0.25 0.37 0.31
Total 100.00 24.60 416.8-"'- 13.96 22. 9-7 18.60
Table 5
WESTERN RIVERS AT RIM STATIONS
Statistical Summary 1922-1963
(All values in MAF and adjusted for future withdrawals by India)
Month Monthly Mean Maximum Minimum Median Dependable
%MAF Monthly Monthly Monthly (80%)
January 1.95 2.73 4.37 1.99 2.62 2.25
February 2.13 2.97 5.85 1.84 2.69 2.23
March 3.60 5.03 9.39 2.93 4.84 3.50
April 5.82 8.13 12.25 4.57 8.00 6.44
May 10.10 14.07 24.62 7.22 13.26 10.75
June 16.30 22.71 31.50 13.03 23.44 19.06
July 22.60 31.60 42.67 21.83 30.78 26.18
August 20.00 28.01 37.02 20.58 27.92 23.66
Se ----------- 9.4 13.15 18.9 8.24 t 13.22l 10 75




Quality-of-water standards for irrigation supply are described in Volume Ill.
According to these criteria, the surface waters of the region are of excellent quality, and no restrictions apply to their use for irrigation supply.
Utilization of Surface Water. Exploitation of surface-water resources has been
limited historically by the highly seasonal distribution of runoff, and by the lack of surface storage to provide either seasonal or hold-over storage. The year is divided into two irri-gation seasons the Rabi or winter season which extends from October through March, and the Kharif or summer season. Canals which operate year-around are termed "perennial" canals, and those which operate only during the summer months are termed "nonperennial" canals. The seasonal distribution of canal supplies under the existing system of works is portrayed in Figure 8. Details of the existing diversion and distribution works are summarized in Table 6. Historical withdrawals have averaged 42 maf (Table 7) including about 15 maf derived from the eastern rivers.
The works being constructed under the Indus Basin Project (IBP) will permit more efficient control and more flexible distribution of the surface-water supplies. The I BP works include Mangla Dam on the ihelum River, which is scheduled for operation with a reservoir capacity of 5.3 maf in April 1967; Tarbela Dam on the Indus River with a reservoir capacity of 11.1 maf operational in 1975; and seven link canals which will become operational between 1967 and 1972 and will provide for the transfer of about 23 maf per year of surface supplies from the western rivers to the lands of the eastern rivers. Details of the post-IBP diversion and distribution works are summarized in Table 8, and the source of canal supplies for the various systems is portrayed in Figure 9.
The implications of Tarbela and Mangla storage works on the control and use of the median annual runoff of the Indus Basin are shown in Table 9. Values in this Table are based on an assumed effective storage capacity of 5 maf at Mangla and 8.6 maf at Tarbela. These values approximate the effective live storage capacities of the reservoirs for irrigation uses; they also approximate the residual capacities of the reservoirs by about 1990. As neither of the reservoirs has sufficient capacity in relation to annual flow or demand to provide hold-over storage both will be operated for seasonal storage and regulation.
Table 9
IMPLICATIONS OF STORAGE IN YEAR OF MEDIAN MONTHLY RUNOFF (All values in million acre feet)
Historical Flow Post Mangla Flow Post Tarbela Flow
River Rabi Kharif Annual Rabi Kharif Annual Rabi Kharif Annual




Table 6
NORTHERN INDUS PLAINS
PRE -INDUS BASIN PROJECTS (l.B.P) SURFACE WATER DIVERSION AND DISTRIBUTION WORKS
(For purposes of this summary," Pre-l.B.P." is considered as prior to operation of Marala- Ravi ,B.R.B.D. and Balloki- Suleimanke Links.)
TRANSFER WORKS IRRIGATION WORKS
CAPACITY CAPACITY CAPACITY A RE A
SOURCE OF CANAL COMMAND AT AT DELIVERS AT _(1000 ACRES)
SUPPL Y HEAD LINK TAIL SUPPLIES TO0 HEAD
(CU SECS) (CUSECS) (CUSECS) G.CCA
(I) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)
INDUS RIVER THAL -- 6,000 2,325.1 I1,608.1
PAHARPUR ....480 108.6 103.2
MUZAFFARGARH ....8,301 800.6 714.C
D.G. KHAN ....8,757 785.2 699.3'
SUBTOTAL- INOUS RIVER 23,538 4,019.5 3,125.2"
JHELUM RIVER UPPER JHELUM 12,031 U.J.C. 7,000 KHANKI 1,878(a) 697.1 540.8L
LOWER .JHELUM ...5,280 1,737.2 1,499.7
SUBTOTAL- JHELUM RIVER 7,158 2,434.3 2,040.5
CHENAB RIVER UPPER CHENAB 16,500 U.C.C. 7,000 BALLOK! 5,075(a) 1,864.5 1,471.0
JHELUM AND LOWER CHENAB -... 1,530 3,794.7 2,923.1
CHENAB RIVERS RANGPUR .... 2,10 372.2 347.1
HAVELI 5,240 HAVELI 4,400 SIDHNAI 744(d) 163.2 157.8
SUBTOTAL- JHELUM AND CHENAB RIVERS 14,984 4,330.1 3,42 8.0
SUBTOTAL-WESTERN RIVERS 50,755 2,648.4 10,064.7
RAVl RIVER CENTRAL SARI DOAB -- 2,695gb) 881.6 581.4i
RAVI CUM JHELUM LOWER BARI DOAB ...7,000 1,822.2 1,460.7i
AND CHENAB RIVERS S10DHNAI ....- 4,500 963.8 861.7
SUBTOTAL -RAVI CUM JHELUM AND CRENAB RIVERS 111500 2,786.0 2,322.4
SUTLEJ RIVER DIPALPUR .... 6,950 1,I 10.1 983.2
PAKPATTAN .... 6,594 1,396.4 1,261I.0
EASTERN SADIQIA .... 4,917 1,135.7 942.5
FOR DWAH ....- 3,366 470.8 427.0C
MAILSI ....- 4,883 801.4 688.2
BAHAWAL ....5,400 823.1 666.6'SUBTOTAL- SUTLEJ RIVER 32,11I0 5,737.5 4,968.5t
PANJNAO RIVER ABBASIA .... 1,064 130.7 109.2
PANJNAD ....- 9,567 1,546.5 1,335.0C
SUBTOTAL- PANJNAD RIVER 10,631 1,677.2 1,444.2
SUBTOTAL- EASTERN RIVE RS 56,936 11,082.3 9,316.5
TOTAL-NORTHERN INDUS PLAINS 107,691I 23,730.7 19,381.2




Iu&JI~
NORTHERN INOUS PLAINS
HISTORIC DELIVERIES TO CANAL HEADWORKS (1947-1960) (All values in thousand causes unless otherwise noted)
RABI
CANAL COMMAND OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR
TOTAL-MAP APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEI
(I) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (II) (12) (13) (14)
THAL 5.3 5.0 4.2 1.3 3.0 4.6 1.423 4.9 5.2 5.6 5.1 5.1 5.
PAHARPUR 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 0 0.2 0.049 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.
MUZAFFARGARH 2.7 0.2 0.5 0 0.1 0.2 0.228 1.1 4.7 5.8 5.4 5.8 5.
0G. KHAN 2.0 0.3 0.5 0 0.4 0.5 0.226 0.6 2.2 3.0 2.7 2.8 2.
SUETOTAL-INDUS RIVER 10.3 5.7 5.3 1.3 3.5 5.5 1.926 6.9 12.5 14.8 13.6 14.1 13.
UPPER JHELUM 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.3 1.1 0.245 1.6 1.9 1.2 2.2 2.0 I.
LOWER JHELUM 4.9 3.6 3.4* 3.3 3.4 3.8 1.36 I 4.5 5.1 5.3 4.6 4.6 4.
SUETOTAL-JHELUM RIVER 6.2 4.3 3.8 3.5 3.7 4.9 1.606 6.1 7.0 6.5 6.8 6.6 6.
PPER CHENAB 2.7 1.5 0.8 1.1 1.0 1.6 0.530 2.7 3.1 4.6 3.6 3.2 3.
I M-R LINK 0.4 0 0 0 0 0 0.025 0 0 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.
SUBTOTAL- CHENAB RIVER 3.1 1.5 0.8 1.1 1.0 1.6 0.555 2.7 3.1 5.6 4.4 3.9 4.
LOWER CHENAB 10.3 8.6 6.3 5.0 7.9 9.5 2.887 9.8 11.1 11.4 10.3 9.0 tO.
RANG PUR 1.3 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.261 0.9 1.6 1.9 1.6 1.6 I.
HAVEL I 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.097 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 ______ ________________________________________ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ __________ ______ ______ ______ ______ 0.6 0.
SUBTOTAL-JHELUM AND CHENAB RIVERS 12.1 9.5 7.1 5.6 8.8 10.4 3.245 11.1 13.3 13.9 12.5 11.2 12.
SUBTOTAL-WESTERN RIVERS 31.7 21.0 17.0 11.5 17.0 22.4 7.332 26.8 35.9 40.8 37.3 35.8 37.
CENTRAL EARl DOAB 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.7 0.438 1.6 2.1' 2.2 1.9 1.4 I.
LOWER BARI DOAB 6.3 5.5 2.9 5.2 5.4 6.4 1.922 6.5 7.4 7.4 6.7 6.0 6.
SIDHNAI 2.9 2.3 1.9 1.0 2.1 2.1 0.745 2.5 3.4 3.6 3.4 2.7 3.
SUBTOTAL-RAVI CUM JHELUM AND
CHENAB RIVERS 10.4 8.9 5.9 7.2 8.6 10.2 3.105 10.6 12.9 13.2 12.0 10.1 II.
DIPALPUR 1.9 0.1 0 0 0 0 0.125 0 1.6 3.4 5.3 5.5 5.
PARPATTAN 3.4 2.6 2.2 1.7 2.4 2.2 0.879 2.5 2.5 3.7 5.5 5.6 5.
EASTERN SADIOIA 3.2 3.2 2.5 2.2 2.8 3.0 1.023 3.3 2.7 3.4 4.4 4.5 4.
FORDWAH 1.2 1.5 0 0 0 0 0.164 0.2 0.7 I.e 2.5 2.5 2.
MAILSI 2.0 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.1 0 0.197 0.6 1.4 2.6 4.1 5.0 4.
BAHAWA L 2.8 1.5 0.6 1.3 IA 0.7 0.475 0.8 1.3 3.3 4.8 5.3 4.
SUBTOTAL-SUTLEJ RIV ER 14.5 9.2 5.6 5.5 6.4 5.9 2.863 7.4 10.2 18.0 26.6 28.4 26.
ABEASI A 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.146 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.
PANJNAD 6.4 3.3 1.4 2.9 3.0 2.4 1.178 4.5 7.5 8.6 8.0 7.3 8.
SUBTOTAL-PANJNAD RIVER 7.1 3.7 1.6 3.3 3.3 2.8 1.324 5.0 8.2 9.4 8.8 8.0 8.
SUBTOTAL-EASTERN RIVERS 32.0 21.8 15.1 16.0 18.3 18.9 7.292 23.0 31.3 40.6 47.4 46.5 46.
TOTAL-NORTHERN INDUS PLAINS 63.7 42.8 30.1 27.5 35.3 41.3 14.624 49.8 67.2 81.4 84.7 82.3 84.




Table 8
NORTHERN INDUS PLAINS
POST-INDUS BASIN PROJECTS (I.B.P.)
SURFACE WATER DIVERSION AND DISTRIBUTION WORKS
TRANSFER WORKS IRRIGATION WORKS
CAPACITY CAPACITY CAPACITY AREA
SOURCE OF
CANAL COMMAND AT AT DELIVERS AT (:000 ACRES)
SUPPLY HEAD LINK TAIL SUPPLIES TO: HEAD
G.A. C.C.A.
CAUSESS) (CUSEC 5) CAUSESS)
(I) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)
INDUS RIVER THAL 7,500 2,325.1 1,608.1
22,000 C-J 20,900 TRIMMU
PAHARPUR 480 108.6 103.8
12,000 T-P 11,500 PANJNAD
MUZAFFARGARM 8,301 800.6 714.0
D.G. 1<1-IAN 8,757 785.2 699.3
SUBTOTAL- INDUS RIVER 25,038 4,019.5 3,125.2
JHELUM RIVER UPPER JHELUM 12,031 UJC 7,000 KHANKI (a) 697.1 540.8
1,878
19,000 R-Q 18,822 QADIRABAD
LOWER JHELUM 5,280 1,737.2 1,499.7
SUSTOTAL- JHELUM RIVER 7,158 2,434.3 2,040.5
(a)
CHENAB RIVER M-R LINK 22,000 M-R 20,000 SALLOKI 871 176.8 106.9
(a)
UPPER CHENAB 16,500 U.C.C. 7,000 SALLOKI 3,404 1,414.5 1,043.6
B.R.B.D. LINK 5,140 8.R.B.O. 2,266 C.E.D.C.& UPPER 1,67 450.0 427.4
(a)
CENTRAL BARI DOAB DIPALPUR C. 2,197 881.6 581.4
(a)
UPPER DIPALPUR 2,105 352.1 323.1
SUBTOTAL- CHENAB RIVER 10,248 5,275.0 2,482.4
JHELUM AND LOWER CHENAB I 1,530 2,116.1 1,666.2
CHENAB RIVERS 18,600 Q-B !4,500 BALLOKI
LOWER CHENAG FEEDER 4,100 1,678.6 1,256.9
LOWER EARl DOAB 7,000 1,901.4 1,525.8
18,500 B-S I 12,000 SULEIMANKE
6,500 B-S fl 6,500 SULEIMANKE
LOWER DIPALPUR 4099(a) 758.0 660.1
UPPER PAKPATTAN 6,594 1,148.6 1,063.3
EASTERN SADIQIA 4,917 1,135.7 942.5
FORDWAH 3,447 470.8 427.0
SU8TOTAL- JHELUM AND CHENAB RIVERS 41,687 9,209.2 7,541.8
INDUS GUM RANGPUR 2,710 372.2 347.1
JHELUM AND 12,000 T-S 11,000 SIDHNAI
(a)
CHENAB RIVERS HAVELI 5,250 HAVELI 4,400 SIDHNAI 744 163.2 157.8
SIDHNAI 4,315 884.6 796.6
10,600 S-M 4,000 LPAKPATTAN,
LOWER PAKPATTAN MAILSI AND I,262~~ 388.3 331.0
MAILS I BAHAWAL C. 5,262(0) 758.4 649.6
4,000 M-B 4,000 LOWER BAHAWAL
BAHAWA L 3,930 725.6 571.9
AEBASIA 1,064 130.7 109.2
PANJNAD 9,567 1,546.5 1,335.0
SUBTOTAL- INDUS GUM .JHELUM AND CHENAB RIVERS 28,854 4,969.5 4,298.2




The~surface-water supplies of the Indus system must be shared between the expanding development programs of the Northern and Southern regions of the Indus Plains of West Pakistan. The procedural rules and priorities for distribution of supplies are yet to be formulated. However, the allocation to the Southern Indus Plains presumably will approxi-mate the recommendations given in the development plan for the Lower Indus region, which, in turn, are patterned after the Sind-Punjab draft agreement of 1945. These call for an ultimate requirement upstream from Gudu Barrage of about 48 maf per year compared to recent historical diversions of about 36 maf per year, with all of the increased diversions allocated to the Kharif season. The rate of development of the Southern Indus Plains is uncertain. For this study it is assumed that Rabi diversions will remain constant, and that development of Kharif diversions equivalent to 25 percent of the increased ultimate commitment will be completed by 1970; 50 percent by 1975; and the full program will be in operation by 1980.
Thus the future availability of surface supplies to the Northern Indus Plains will be largely controlled by the timing of the IBP works and the concomitant appropriation of the flow of the eastern rivers by India, and by the schedule of development for the Lower Indus region. The composite effects of these factors on future mean-year surface-water supplies for the Northern Indus Plains are shown in Table 10. These estimates are based on the fol lowing assumptions.
1. Surface-water supplies for both the Northern and Southern Indus Plains will
equal recent historical diversions until April 1970. In the interim, additional
supplies derived from Mangla storage presumably will be offset by increased
diversions from the eastern rivers by India.
2. The effective live storage capacities of Mangla and Tarbela reservoirs are
assumed to be constant, and equal to the estimated storage capacity for about 1990 i.e., 5 maf for Mangla and 8.6 maf for Tarbela. These are conservative estimates but realistic of conditions during the early years of integration
of storage supplies into the system when contingency releases, power generation
commitments, and vari ous operational losses will make it difficult to achieve
100 percent efficiency in regulation.
Table 10 also shows that after completion of the IBP works and the storage and diversion works planned for the Lower Indus region, there will remain about 20 maf of unregulated runoff under median year conditions. This represents a significant reserve for future development. More than that, the existence of undeveloped surface-water supplies of this magnitude permits highly flexible and aggressive exploitation of ground water to satisfy immediate irrigation needs. The hazards of overdevelopment of ground water which may ari se in the future can be eliminated, when necessary, by construction of additional sufaeae sr..-..torag e nand A dieri or ks.




*1 -- S W FIGURE 9
9 PESHAWAR
A5 NMJ A
4 *
S
-I.
-- -N
V
4 -4
4
I
.4
-4
*
N
S..
5
4
-~

t It
-4
'a
I ,E*O2E.U4
4
U / ->
Itp11.9 7
U
I
4 Ic
I
/
I J /
p
U
LEGEND
.us
4 Jhelun, River
~0
7 EL Chenob River
/ (// Indus River
U / Jhelum ond Chengb Rivers
~IJ Jhelum Indus and Chenab Rivers
44
II
S International Boundary




Table 10
MEDIAN YEAR SURFACE WATER SUPPLIES AVAILABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE NORTHERN INDUS PLAINS
(All values in mflhian acre feet)
__________________ Surface Water Available for Development
1965 1970 1975 Past
Historic Median Flow Less Median Flow Avail. Avail. Avail. Avail.
toN, toN, toN, to N.
Month Future Divenfons by India Regulated by Storages Reqmt. Indus Reqmt. Indus Reqmt. Indus Reqmt. Indus
indus Jhelurn Chenab Total Indus ihelum Chenab Total at Gudu Plains at Gudu Plains at Gudu Plains at Gudu Plains
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (75 (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) (14) (15) (16) (175
October 3.5 0.7 0.8 5.0 4.9 1.7 0.8 7.4 2.7 2.3 2.7 3.3 2.7 4.7 2.7 4.7
November 2.1 0.5 0.4 3.0 3.0 1.6 0.4 5.0 1.9 1.1 1.9 2.2 1.9 3.! 1.9 3.1
December 1.8 0.4 0.4 2.6 2.5 1.4 0.4 4.3 V.3 1.3 1.3 2.3 1.3 3.0 1.3 3.0
January 1.6 0.5 0.5 2.6 2.7 1.5 0.5 4.7 V.3 1.3 1.3 2.3 1.3 3.4 1.3 3.4
-a
NJ
February 1.6 0.6 0.5 2.7 3.3 1.5 0.5 5.3 1.8 0.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 3.5 V.8 3.5
March 2.2 1.5 0.9 4.6 3.1 1.5 0.9 5.5 1.7 2.9 1.7 2.9 1.7 3.8 1.7 3.8
Rabi fl 3.5 ~U3 3.5 9.8 ~7 ~7 V.5
AprIl 4.1 2.6 1.3 8.0 5.5 2.3 1.3 9.1 2.4 5.6 2.6 5.1 2.9 6.2 3.1 6.0
May 7.6 3.5 2.0 13.1 8.1 2.8 2.0 12.9 3.8 9.3 4.5 7.9 5.3 7.6 6.0 6.9
June 15.9 3.6 3.4 22.9 14.9 1.6 3.4 19.9 5.4 17.5 6.1 14.8 6.9 13.0 7.6 12.3
July 22.7 3.5 5.0 31.2 17.7 1.5 5.0 24.2 5.7 25.5 6.6 22.6 7..5 16.7 8.4 15.8
August 19.3 2.6 5.1 27.0 16.7 2.6 5.1 24.4 5.1 21.9 5.9 21.1 6.8 17.6 7.6 16.8
September 92 1.5 2.7 13.3 9.1 1.5 2.7 13.3 4.0 9.3 4.3 9.0 4.7 8.6 5.0 8.3
Kharif Wy 173 115.5 103.8 ~fl 89.1 30.0 80.5 34.1 69.7 37.7 66.1
Total 91.5 21.5 23.0 136.0 91.5 21.5 23.0 136.0 37.1 98.9 40.7 95.3 44.8 91.2 48.4 87.6
(a) Unregulated flow measured at Kalabagh.




Ground Water
The Alluvial Aquifer. Essentially the entire Northern Indus Plains region is underlain to depths of 1,000 feet or more with unconsolidated sediments of alluvial origin. The alluvium comprises a unified, more or less homogeneous water table aquifer which, under present conditions of development, is saturated to within a few feet of the land surface. The sediments vary in texture from medium-grained sand to silty clay, but the sandy sediments predominate, and modern gravel-packed wells, 200 to 400 feet deep, yielding 5 cusecs or more, can be developed at virtually any site.
The water-bearing properties of the alluvium have been the subject of considerable, and as yet unresolved controversy. WASID has conducted a continuous program of experimental field studies since about 1956, which established the feasibility of developing the alluvial aquifer both for irrigation supplies and for drainage relief. But the estimates of the values of the critical hydraulic constants which have been derived from the WASID data vary greatly. For this report the average coefficient of lateral permeability of the alluvial sediments is taken as 0.0015 cusecs per square foot, and the average coefficient of storage (specific yield) as 0.25. The vertical permeability has not been studied in sufficient detail to justify assigning an average value for the region. However, it is evident from geologic and hydraulic considerations that the alluvium is highly anisotropic. Miscellaneous field studies by WASID indicate a ratio between lateral and vertical permeability of the order of 50 to 100 to 1. For this report a ratio of about 50 to 1 is assumed. The value is not critical in itself, but it is essential to recognize the order of magnitude of the anistropy.
Occurrence of Ground Water. Prior to the development of irrigation on the plains ground-water recharge was derived from precipitation and from seepage from the rivers. Precipitation was a significant factor only in the northern part of the region where it exceeds about 14 inches per year, equivalent to about 10 inches of effective precipitation (Figure 6), of which it is estimated about 0.3 of a foot per year is recharge. Where mean annual precipitation is less than 12 to 14 inches per year, recharge from precipitation is negligible on the order of 0. 1 of a foot per year. Under natural conditions ground-water discharge occured largely as evapotranspiration. Ground-water underflow was also a factor in the ground-water budget, but a minor one as the inflow and outflow components comprised small fractions of the water involved, and were essentially in balance. Thus, under the natural regimen the water table sloped downstream and inland from the rivers. The depth to the water table ranged from less than 10 feet in proximity to the rivers to 90 feet or more in the central and lower reaches of the doabs, and in the bordering areas of the Bahawalpur Plain, D. I. Khan and D. G. Khan.
The introduction of canal irrigation markedly changed the natural regimen. Conveyance losses from canals, amounting to 25 to 30 percent of the head diversions, formed a new. and.~ doAau nt,,, componnof recharge, eqiva~nnn len t n average of about 0.5 foot nf




two feet per year. This trend prevailed until the water table was sufficiently near land surface for evaporation losses to balance recharge and reestablish equilibrium between recharge and discharge.
By 1960 the water table had stabilized within 20 feet of the land surface
beneath most of the irrigated areas of the region (Figure 10). The proximity of the water table to land surface resulted in serious problems of drainage and attendant soil salinity which depreciated the productivity of extensive areas. As general planning criteria, and under present water management and distribution practices, drainage conditions in the Northern Indus Plains are classified as follows:
Affected Area
Depth to Water Table Drainage Conditions 1,000 Acres Percent of Area
Less than 10 feet Hazardous. These areas 9,440 40
require drainage relief to
sustain present productivity,
and as a prerequisite to
further development.
10 to 20 feet Incipient drainage hazards. 8,420 35
Development projects for
these areas must include
provisions for control of
subsurface drainage.
Greater than 20 feet No immediate hazards. 6,050 25
Development of land and
water can proceed with
implementation of drainage
works deferred until required.
It should be emphasized that the foregoing is intended as only a general classification to show the scale of drainage problems in the region. Control of subsurface drainage does not necessarily require lowering the water table and maintaining it a depths of 10 feet or more. Successful irrigation can be practiced where the water table is at a depth of 5 feet or less provided the flux is downward so that salts are removed from the root zone. With adequate water applications to insure leaching of salts from the root zone, and a pattern of ground-water circulation that insures deep percolation of the leachate, the depth of the water table is not a critical factor in drainage.




Under the irrigation regimen, leakage from the irrigation system is the dominant component of ground-water recharge to the alluvial aquifer which underlies the region, and the occurrence of ground water is largely determined by the distribution of the canal supplies.
Quality of Ground Water. The chemical quality of ground water reflects its hydrologic history. Thus the quality of ground water in the Northern Indus Plains is best considered in two contexts that of the native or deep water which occurred in the alluvial aquifer prior to the inception of irrigation, and that of the shallow ground water which has accumulated in ground-water storage in recent years from seepage from the irrigation
system. There is not a sharp boundary between the shallow and deep ground-water zones. Throughout the region the quality of ground water from depths of about 80 feet or more represents the deep ground water except near the major canals where leakage may circulate to greater depths.
From the standpoint of ground-water development, the deep ground water is most important; it comprises the bulk of ground water in storage and will be the primary source of supply to irrigation wells for an indefinite period. The mineral content of the deep
ground water in the Northern Indus Plains ranges from less than 200 to more than 10,000 parts per million (ppm) of dissolved solids. Figure 11 shows the regional variation of the mineral concentration of the deep ground water. In general, the mineral content increases
with distance from the rivers which were the principal sources of natural recharge. However, the transition in quality is gradual through the low to moderate range of mineral concentration, and for about 70 percent of the region the ground water contains less than 1,500 ppm of dissolved solids. As described in the following section of this report, 1,500 ppm is the upper limit of concentration of ground water which is classed as I"nonsaline"t and suitable for virtually unrestricted use as irrigation supply in the Northern Indus Plains.
The quality of the shallow ground water is largely controlled by the local environment, chiefly the proximity of canal recharge and the depth to the water table. Under these conditions local variations in the quality of the shallow supplies are of about the same magnitude as regional variations. However, the quality-of-water data for the.
shallow supplies fit a crude regional pattern similar to that of the deep ground water. In areas where the deep ground water is nonsaline the shallow ground water commonly is also nonsaline, but the range of concentration of the shallow supplies may extend to more than 3,000 ppm of dissolved solids. On the other hand, where the deep ground water is saline the shallow supplies typically contain 2,000 to 4,000 ppm of dissolved solids, but the range of concentration is from less than 1,000 ppm near the major irrigation channels, to over 8,000 ppm in low-lying areas where the water table is discharging to evaporation.
The quality of the shallow ground water is significant for two reasons. Firstly, it.
gives an indication of the chemical nature of recharge to the water table under the existing




PESNAWAR FIGURE 10
A5~M ~
a
UAMGCA 1~t
J
DAM
V - - ~ -
- J~ELUM J
-A
'S
4
I
at.
411
A
I.
N
P -A Ar KALASAGH
4
- I
-4
a
I
q
U
~2
I..
I
I
A
Jr
a
1~
* /
I U
4
Contours showing depth to water bO~ 4 tO table in feet below land
7 surface ,1960.
/ m Areas where depth to water
I table is less than 0 feet.
f~ i Areos where depth to water
4 / I toble is between 0 and 20 feet.
international Boundary
U




~E$HA*AR FIGURE
F
A A A SHM r
MANGLE C J
ThE LUM
-,
A -.
I
a .3
-
'4
5
AL A H A 6 H A j '~& ~* ..,
/
K
p9 '2 1- A N WALL
-~
V
5
g
U C) I KM
I
U
I
/
I
I
k-4
I
-'coo----- Iso-groin line, Total dissolved solids
in parts per million (ppm).
V
I Intermodiote Zone
-- <\ 9 Non- Soline Zone
A ii 1~' internofionol Boundory




shallow ground water. Secondly, the quality of the shallow ground water also is indicative of the quality of the drainage effluent which will have to be exported from the saline areas. As much of the drainage will be subject to downstream withdrawals for irrigation uses, the concentration of the drainage water is of critical importance.
Quality of Ground Water in Relation to Use As Irrigation Supply. The pri mary
criterion for classifying the quality of irrigation supplies is the mineral concentration of the water, commonly referred to as salinity and expressed in terms of "parts per million of total dissolved solids. Secondary criteria are based on the ionic composition of the water commonly the relative concentration of sodium expressed as the "sodium absorption ratio" (SAR), "residual sodium carbonate" (RSC), or "soluble sodium percentage" (SSP), or the concentration of toxic ions, principally boron.
According to the quality-of-water standards which have been adopted for the
Northern Indus Plains the utility of the ground-water supplies can be classified on the basis of the primary criteria on the mineral content of the water and three general classes of water have been established. Ground water containing less than 1,500 ppm of dissolved solids is classified as nonsaline and safe for use under accepted irrigation and water management practices, by which it is implied that about one-third of the applied irrigation water is derived from canal supplies. Under those conditions the maximum concentration of applied water would be about 1, 100 ppm of dissolved solids. Ground water containing 1,500 to 4,000 ppm of dissolved solids is classified as intermediate; use of the intermediate quality ground water will require dilution with canal supplies, or special water and soil management practices. Water with a concentration of more than 4,000 ppm of dissolved solids is classified as saline and unsuitable for economic development for irrigation supplies under present and assumed future conditions.
The areal distribution of the Saline, Intermediate, and Nonsaline Ground-Water Zones in the Northern Indus Plains is shown in Figure 11 .This is based upon the pattern of mineralization which has been described for the deep ground water, and assumes that on the average the same scale of regional variation of quality will apply to the shallow ground-water supplies. Table 11 gives a summary of land areas within the irrigation boundaries by canal command and quality-of-water zones. According to these data the Nonsaline Zone comprises 70 percent of the gross area of the canal commands, the Intermediate Zone 12 percent, and the Saline Zone 18 percent. Assuming a specific yield for the alluvial aquifer of 0.25, the volume of useful water in ground-water storage to a depth of 500 feet beneath the canal commands and contiguous riverine areas is about 2,000 maf. By way of comparison, this is equivalent to about 15 years mean discharge of the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab Rivers.
The above does not take into account the shallow ground water of acceptable




Table II
NORTHERN INDUS PLAINS
SUMMARY OF LAND AREAS
BY
CANAL COMMANDS AND QUALITY or GROUND WATER ZONES
All values in 1,000 acres)
GROSS AREA (GA) CULTURABLE AREA (CA) CULTURABLE COMMANDED AREA (CCA)
RIVER HEAOWORKS CANAL NON- INTEA SALINE NON- INTER- SALINE NON- INTER- SALINE
~OMMAIQ SALINE MEDIATE ZONE TOTAL SALINE MEDIATE ZONE TOTAL SALINE MEDIATE ZONE TOTAL
ZONE ZONE ZONE ZONE ZONE ZONE
(I) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (Ia) (II) (12) ('3) ('4) ('5)
INDUS
Kalobogh
ThaI 11627.6 325.5 372.0 2,325. I 1,479. I 295.8 338.1 2, 113.0 I, 120.3 227.6 260.2 1~608. I
C has mc
Paharpur 67.3 23.9 17.4 108.6 66.0 23.4 17.0 106.4 64.4 22.8 16.6 103.8
To u n so
0.6. Khan 486.8 172.7 125.7 785.2 454.0 161.1 117.2 732.3 433.6 153.8 111.9 689.3
Muzaffarqcrh 624.5 144.1 32.0 800.6 567.8 131.0 29.2 728.0 556.9 128.5 28.8 714.0
SUBTOTAL Indus River 2,806.2 666.2 547.1 4,019.5 2,566.9 611.3 501.5 3,679.7 2,175.2 532.7 417.3 3,125.2
JIIELUM
Mangle
Upper Jheium 697.2 0 0 897. I 647.3 0 0 647.3 540.8 0 0 540.8
Rasul
Lower Jhetum 1,077.1 330.1 330.0 1,737.2 990.0 303.4 303.3 1,598.7 929.8 285.0 284.9 1,499.7
SUBTOTAL Jh*lum River 1,774.2 330.1 330.0 2,434.3 1,637.3 303.4 303.3 2,244.0 1,470.8 285.0 284.9 2,040.5
C HE NA B
Marcia
M-R Link
Distributaries 276.8 0 0 176.8 161.6 0 0 161.8 106.9 0 0 106.9
Upper Chenob 1,414.5 0 0 1,414.5 1,210.3 0 0 1,210.3 1,043.6 0 0 1,043.6
BRBD Link
Distributaries 450.0 0 0 450.0 427.4 0 0 427.4 427.4 0 0 427.4
Central Sort
Doob 529.0 290.9 Cl.? 861.6 478.6 263.2 55.9 797.7 324.4 212.0 45.0 581.4
Upp.r Dipalpur 327.5 24.6 0 352.1 307.9 23.2 0 331.0 300.5 22.6 0 323.1
Kh an hI
Lower Chenob 1,554.2 375.7 386.2 2,116.1 1,342.0 320.5 142.5 1,805.0 1,203.2 320.5 242.5 1,666.2
Cod ire bad
L.C.C. Feeder 1,003.9 342.3 352.4 1,676.6 793.1 260.1 257.6 1,310.7 739.3 260.1 257.5 1,256.9
Trimmu
Rangpur 353.6 18.6 0 372.2 340.0 17.9 0 357.9 329.7 37.4 0 347.1
Howell 64.5 24.1 54.6 163.2 82.7 23:3 52.8 157.8 83.7 25.5 52.8 157.8
SUBTOTAL -Chenab River 5,694.0 1,076.2 654.9 7,605.1 5,142.5 908.2 508.7 6,559.4 4,556.7 855.9 497.8 5,910.4
RAVI
Bolloki
Lower Sari
Doab 1W 1,560.3 265.3 75.6 1,901.4 1,277. I 216.8 62.0 I, 555.9 1,251.0 213.7 $1.1 1,525.8
Lower Dipolpur 598.6 359.2 0 756.0 560.2 148.9 0 709.1 521.5 138.6 0 660.1
UpperPahpatta~ 1,091.2 45.9 11.5 1,148.6 IOIq.9 42.6 30.6 1,064.1 1,010.1 42.6 10.6 1,063.3
Eastern Sodiqia 11.4 (a) 1,124.3 1,135.7 9.5 (a) 933.0 942.5 9.5 Cc) 935.0 942.5
Fordwah 348.4 (a) 322.4 470.8 319.1 (a) 112.1 431.2 316.0 (a) 111.0 427.0
Sidhnci
Sidhnai 760.6 115.0 8.8 894.6 685.1 103.6 7.9 796.8 685.1 103.6 7.9 796.6
LowerPokpottan 186.4 85.4 116.5 388.3 163.8 75.1 102.4 341.3 358.9 72.8 99.3 331.0
Lower Mcliii 493.0 98.6 166.5 758.4 450.5 90.1 152.5 $93.1 422.2 84.5 342.9 649.6
Lower Behawol 210.4 (a) 5152 725.6 370.9 (a) 418.4 589.3 165.9 (a) 406.0 571.9
SUBTOTAL -Ravi River 5,260.7 769.4 2,141.3 6,171.4 4,647.1 677.1 1,798.9 7,123.1 4,540.2 655.8 1,771.8 6,967.8




In summary, the alluvial aquifer is a vital feature in the resources inventory of the Northern Indus Plains. The nearly universal availability of ground-water supplies for irrigation is the major factor, and the aquifer is highly susceptible to management practices which enhance its economic utility. Withdrawals from the reservoir can be regulated to satisfy irrigation requirements, control subsurface drainage, and salvage rejected recharge and discharge to nonbeneficial uses. Under conditions of ultimate development of the water resources of the Northern Indus Plains, the long-term yield of the aquifer will be determined by the magnitude of surface-water diversions, from which most ground-water recharge is derived. But in the relatively short run measured in decades while surface supplies are being equated to uses, the aquifer will support a heavy overdraft to meet irrigation requirements. The economic advantages of ground-water mining are described in Volume II.
Development of Ground Water. Large-scale development of ground-water resources began in" 1960 with the implementation of the Salinity Control and Reclamation Program for the Northern Indus Plains. Project 1 in central Rechna Doab went into full operation in 1963, and was followed by units of SCARP 2 for Chaf Doab in 1965 and 1966. Other subprojects of SCARP 2, and of SCARP 3 in lower Thai Doab, and SCARP4 in upper Rechna Doab are under construction and scheduled for completion in 1967 and early 1968. With the completion of the ongoing projects the SCARP program will comprise about 4,900 tubewells serving more than 3 million acres. Summary data for these works are given in Table 12. The locations of the projects are shown in Figure 4.
The publicity attending the WAPDA program also has spurred development of
ground-water supplies by private interests. The statistics for private development are imperfect, but it is clear that private well supplies were not a significant factor in irrigation in the Northern Indus Plains prior to 1960. In that year there were fewer than 7,000 private tubewells in the Northern Indus Plains serving less than 700,000 acres. Since then the installation of tubewells has accelerated markedly, and approximately 33,000 were i operation by the end of 965.
The density of private tubewells in the Nonsaline and Intermediate Zones of the
region at the close of 1965 is shown in Figure 12 by canal command for the areas of significant development. Figure 1 2 also gives for each canal command the total acreage and the percent of the Nonsaline and Intermediate Zones served by private tubewells. Nearly 90 percent of the private tubewells in the Northern Indus Plains are located in Rechna and Bari Doabs and the Bahawalpur Plain. Private development in Chaj Doab has been suppressed by the limited availability of fresh ground water and by the inception of public projects. In Thai Doab and the Right Dank Indus areas private development has not become a significant factor in irrigation supply, presumably because existing canal supplies are not yet fully utilized.
Prv tetbe.l r h-hl -rftbet hi w~ n nr~ iltn rr




Table 12
SUMMARY DATA FOR ON-GOING PROJECTS
Year of Installed
Location Initial No. of Capacity Area Served
Development Tubewel Is causess) (acres)
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
SCARP 1 Central Rechna Doab 1963 1,980 5,636 1,133,000
SCARP 2 Chaf Doab
Lalian Unit 1964 163 577 123,000
Mona Unit 1965 138 468 100,000
Khadir Unit 1967 213 824 153,000
Upper ihelum Sub-project 1968 884 3,280 647,000
Subtotal 1,561 1,023,000
SCAR? 3 Lower Thai Doab
Alipur Unit 1968 5~4O 2,003 399,000
Kot Adu Unit 1968 475 1,696 326,000
Subtotal 1,015 3,699 725,000
SCAR? 4 Upper Rechna Doab
Mangtanwala Unit 1967 300 1260 141,000
I
Total 4,856 15,744 3,022,000
Note: Column 6 gives the effective annual pumpage for irrigation uses according to the project design estimal




-t PE S*4AW4A FIGURE 12
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More tho n 20%of non- so line and V / I inte rmediofe zones ore served.
U International Boundary




to command all of his parcels of land with a single well, or to serve some of his holdings if he has to cross a neighbors land. Moreover, in order for a small landholder to amortize his investment in a reasonable period of time, he must sell water to his neighbors, and again fragmentation and the attendant problems of distribution are restraints.
As described in Volume Ill, other marginal elements also will interfere with private
development. The net effect of the various restraints is to impose a practical ceiling on the level of: private development which is likely to be attained in the foreseeable future. Studies of private development in Rechna and Bari Doabs and the Bahawalpur Plain indicate that in a typical area the ceiling will be reached when private tubewell supplies are serving about 40 percent of the CA of the Nonsaline and Intermediate Zones. According to these studies, private development is past its peak in most areas of Rechna and Bari Doabs and the Bahawalpur Plain, and will become negligible after about 1970, unless an effective program of: government subsidies is instigated. The projections of private development, given in Table 13, show 33,200 private wells serving 2.7 million acres in the region at the close of 1965, increasing to nearly 50,000 wells serving 3.9 million acres by 1970, but only to about 55,000 wells serving 4.2 million acres by 1975.
Table 14 summarizes the total ground-water development which is completed or
reasonably assured under both public and private programs. Taking into account SCARP 1, and the subprojects of SCARP's 2, 3, and 4 which are completed or under construction, and anticipated private development, the lands served by ground-water supplies will increase from 4.1 million acres in 1965, to 6.5 million acres in 1970, and to 6.8 million acres in 1975.
LAND
The land resources of the Northern Indus Plains impose no significant restraints on agricultural development. Rather, culturable land is abundant in relation to all other physical resources. Of: the total area of 24 million acres within present irrigation boundaries, nearly 21 million acres are classified as culturable. And of the culturable area, 19.5 million acres have been leveled and otherwise developed for irrigation and are commanded by canal works.
Land and Land Forms
The irrigable lands of the Northern Indus Plains occupy most of: the vast alluvial
plain extending from the Potwar Plateau and the Salt Range in the north to Gudu Barrage in the south, and from the Sulaiman Range on the west to the borders of: Jammu, India, and the Thar Desert on the east. The irrigcable zone is approximately 420 miles in length and From 50l to 250 m;le In w -~~idth, ennmpassee ar ro arnea o abou 32a m4 )~nilionn aes




Table 3
NORTHERN INCUS PLAINS
PROJECTIONS OF PRIVATE TUBEWELL DEVELOPMENT
1965 1970
AREA SERVED AREA SERVED
AREAS 8Y PROJECTS NUMBER AREA AS PERCENT OF NUMBER AREA AS PERCENT OF NUMBER AR
RECLAMATION AREA(O) RECLAMATION AREACa)
OR CANAL COMMAND OF SERVED OF SERVED OF SER
TUBEWELLS(I000 ACRES) NON-SALINE TOTAL TUBEWELLS(IOOO ACRES) AND TOTAL TUBEWELLS(IO0O
INTERMEDIATE AREA INTERMEDIATE AREA
AREA AREA
(I) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (I
RECHNA DOAB:
UPPER RECHNA 7,262 383 21.3 21.3 11,800 590 32.8 32.8 14,800
LOWER RECHNA 3,238 327 19.0 15.0 4,600 418 24.3 19.2 4,800 ____SUBTOTAL RECHNA 10,500 710 20.2 17.9 16,400 1,008 28-6 25.4 19,600 ___BARI DOAB
CENTRAL EARl DOAB 1,798 138 19.9 18.9 2,830 230 33.3 31.3 3,051
UPPER DIPALPUR 507 39 11.8 11.8 1,609 86 26.0 26.0 1,810
LOWER BARI DOAB 4,291 378 26.0 24.9 5,751 491 33.8 32.4 5,800
LOWER DIPALPUR 1,890 180 25,7 25.7 2,981 267 38.2 38.2 3,126
UPPER PAKPATTAN 4,296 335 31.8 31.5 5,294 396 37.6 37.2 5,316
SIDHNAI 1,984 167 21.2 21.0 2,352 201 25.5 25.2 2,364
0~ LOWER PAI(PATTAN 829 80 33.8 23.8 853 86 36.3 25.6 853
MAILSI 1,522 158 29.2 23.5 1,570 170 31.8 25.1 1,580 ___SUBTOTAL SARI 17,117 ,475 25.4 23.9 23,240 1,927 33.3 31.3 23,900 I
BAHAWALPUR PLAIN
FORDWAH 410 46 14.4 10.6 690 78 24.4 18.1 724
BAHAWAL 225 25 14.6 4.3 370 42 24.6 7.3 386
PANJ NAD AEBAS IA 1,026 119 14.5 8.1 1,780 201 24.5 13.7 1,890 __SUBTOTAL BAHAWAL PUR 1,661 190 14.4 7.6 2,840 321 24.4 12.9 3,000
UNSPECIFIED AREAS (b) 3,922 377 5.2 4.5 6,920 650 8.9 7.8 8,200
TOTALNORTHERN INDUS PLAINS 33,200 2,752 16.1 13.3 49,400 3,906 18.8 18.0 54,700 4,,
NOTES:
(a) Reclamation Area comprises CA. of Non Saline Zone
and C.C.A. of Intermediate and Saline Zones.
(b) Includes Central Rechna (s.c.A.R.P.-I), Thai Doab
Chaj Daub and Right Bank Indus.




Table 14
AREAS SERVED BY ON-GOING SCARP PROJECTS AND PRIVATE DEVELOPMENT (Projected to 1975)
Area Served 1965 Area Served 1970 Area Servec
Areas by Projects Percent Percent Percent Percent Perce
or Canal Commands 1000 of N-S & of Total 1000 of N-S & of Total 1000 of NAcres Int.Zones RA Acres Int.,Zones RA Acres fnt.Zc
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)
Central Rechna Doab 1,133 100 100 1,133 100 100 1,133 100
ChaJ Doab 412 21 19 1,156 60 52 1,183 62
Lower Thai Doab 82 8 8 765 73 71 772 73
Upper Rechna Doab 383 21 21 649 36 36 749 41
Lower Rechna Doab 327 19 15 418 24 19 459 27
Panfnad-Abbasia 119 14 8 201 24 14 213 26
Upper Dipalpur 39 12 12 86 26 26 99 30
Central Ban 138 20 19 230 33 31 252 36
Lower Bar; 378 26 25 491 34 32 502 35
Siclhnai 167 21 21 201 26 25 201 26
Mailsi 158 29 23 170 32 25 171 32
Bahawa I 25~ 15 4 42 25 7 44 26
Eastern Sadiqia-Fordwah 46 14 3 78 24 6 83 25
Lower Pakpattan 80 34 24 86 36 26 86 36
Lower Dipalpur 180 26 26 267 38 38 281 40
Upper Pakpattan 335 32 31 396 38 37 399 38
Other Areas 106 4 4 180 7 6 219 S
Total: 4,108 24 20 6,549 38 32 6,846 4C
NOTES: Cols. (3), (6), and (9) based on CA of Nonsaline Zones and CCA of Intermediate Zones. Reclamatto
comprised of CA of Nonsaline Zone and CCA of Intermediate and Saline Zones. Other areas include
and Right Bank Indus areas.




a few nonperennial drainageways. The lands of the alluvial plain, including the Thai, Chaj, Rechna, and Bani Doabs, the valley and piedmont areas on the right bank of the Indus, and the desert area on the left bank of the Sutlej River can be conveniently subdivided into six principal land forms:
1. Active flood plains old bars, levees, and river beds that are inundated during
most monsoon seasons. The active flood plains comprise about 1.9 million acres,
or 6 percent of the region.
2. Abandoned flood plains old bars, levees, ox-bow lakes, and channel scarps
which border the active flood plains but commonly are 5 to 15 feet higher in
elevation. The abandoned flood plains comprise 5.2 million acres, or 16 percent of the region.
3. Cover flood plains fairly level, almost featureless lands which parallel the
rivers in elevated broad belts up to 20 miles wide and are composed of recent
alluvium deposited by sheet flooding over former abandoned flood plains. The
cover flood plains comprise about 8.5 million acres, or 26 percent of the region.
4. Bar uplands flat and featureless areas underlain by older alluvium occupying
the elevated central portions of Chaj, Rechna, and Ban Doabs, commonly
bordered by old scarps 5 to 20 feet high. The bar uplands comprise 4.4 million
acres, or 14 percent of the region.
5. Sand plains level or gently rolling sandy areas composed of alluvium derived
from Indus system rivers and transported mainly by the wind to their present locations. The sand plains comprise 7.5 million acres, or 23 percent of the
region.
6. Piedmont plains stratified flat beds of alluvial outwash originating in the Salt
Range and Sulaiman Range and terminating abruptly at the flood plains of the
Indus and Jhelum Rivers. The piedmont plains and related but unclassified land
forms comprise about 5 million acres, or 16 percent of the region.
Soils and SoI Characteristics
Record high crop yields obtained in recent years and assessment of inherent characteristics indicate that the soils of the Northern Indus Plains have as high a production capacity as any large body of irrigated soils in the world higher than the soils of southwestern United States, a region frequently used as a standard of comparison for irrigated areas.




The soils have been derived from the relatively homogeneous alluvium of the Indus River system. Winds, floods, and changes in the courses of rivers have created mixed patterns of deposition, but few significantly different soils hove been formed. And as the principal soil developing factors temperature, rainfall, vegetation, microorganisms, relief, erosion, and human activity have modified the characteristics of the original alluvium only slightly, most of the soils of the region are immature i.e., are without wellI-defi ned profi le characteristics.
The native vegetation is sparse, and owing to the high temperatures organic matter decomposes rapidly. Thus the organic matter and nitrogen contents of the soils commonly are quite low.
Soil Classification
For irrigation planning purposes, the soils of the Northern Indus Plains are best classified by their subsoil textural characteristics; these in turn describe the drainage characteristics. WASID has mapped five principal soil series groups in the region on the basis of the average texture of the subsoil from a depth of approximately 6 to 72 inches. The five soil series groups are briefly described as follows:
1. Jhang, the coarsest soil series, has a relatively low water-holding capacity
and tus is somewhat limited in crop adaptation and in its ability to support
high crop yields. Except where surplus water is available, the Jhang soils are best suited for deep-rooted, drought-resistant crops. High crop yields require a careful water management program, including a relatively high frequency of irrigation. Jhang soils comprise about 15 percent of the culturable area of the
regi on.
2. Farida soils are moderately coarse textured with good internal drainage.
Farida sois rarely display severe salinity and alkali problems. They are
adapted to the production of almost all crops except rice, but because of their
moderate water-holding capacities are best suited to the deeper rooted crops
with moderate to low water requirements. Farida soils occupy about 30 percent
of the culturable area of the region.
3. Buchiana soils are medium to coarse textured in the surface and medium textured
in the subsoil to a depth of 6 feet or more. Consequently, these soils have
moderate to low infiltration and permeability rates, generally favorable internal
drainage characteristics, and relatively high water-holding capacities.
Buchiana soils comprise 40 percent of the culturable area of the region.




by salinity and alkali. Chuharkana and Nokhar soils can be farmed successfully under good soil and water management practices; they are best suited for
rice, wheat, cotton, and fodder crops. Soils of the Chuharkana and Nokhar
series occupy 10 percent of the region.
Chemical and physical properties of the soils and the distribution of the soil classes by subareas of the region are given in Table 15.
Land Development
As described in the previous section on water resources and listed in Table 11, the canal systems in the Northern Indus Plains serve a gross area (GA) of nearly 24 million acres (ma). The culturable area (CA) within the irrigation boundaries is more than 21 million acres, of which approximately 19.5 million acres is classified as culturable commanded area (CCA). For the purposes of this report the term reclamation area (RA) is used to define the area which can be incorporated into the SCARP program that is, the area which can be reclaimed or developed under the ground-water program without extending the existing canal commanded area. For a given canal command, therefore, the RA equals the sum of the CA of the Nonsaline Zone, and the CCA of the Intermediate and Saline Zones. The RA of the Northern Zone is 20.8 million acres.
Essentially all of the CCA in Chaj, Rechna, and Barn Doabs is at a relatively
advanced stage of development i e., present cropping intensities range from about 70 to 120 percent and average about 100 percent. The lands are fully provided with water courses, and are bunded, leveled, and otherwise prepared for increases in cropping intensities and productivity. Land development is somewhat less advanced in the more remote portions of the Bahawal Plains and the cropping intensities are lower, averaging about 70 percent. In Thai and the Indus Right Bank areas, where achieved levels of cropping intensity are less than 50 percent, only about half the CCA is adequately prepared for a high level of development.
As described in the preceding section, the more progressive and wealthy farmers have augmented their surface-water supplies, particularly in Ban and Rechna Doabs, by installing approximately 33,000 low capacity tubewells, thereby increasing cropping intensities and expanding the acreage under cultivation. The implications of private tubewell installation on present production and future development are discussed in Part II.
Salinity and Alkali
*n -~ n r~n~n nle *n indaut susrfc drina t clte 1n




Table 15
SUMMARY OF WASID SOIL SURVEYS
A. Aereal Distribution
Bahawalpur Total
So1l Series Group .Thai Doab Chaj Dab Rechna Dab Barn Doab Plain Northern IndusPlnsa
(1000 acres) (1000 acres) (1000 acres) (1000 acres) (1000 acres) (1000 acres) (percent)
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)
Jhang 1,231.8 316.5 784.9 554.8 575.0 3,463.0 14.7
Fanda 1,549.7 681.6 2,294.4 1,109.9 1,237.1 6,908.7 29.4
Buchiana 516.6 900.7 1,871.8 4,508.9 1,560.6 9,358.6 39.8
Chuharkana 158.9 438.2 905.7 485.6 410.6 2,399.0 10.2
Nokhar 0 24.3 60.4 0 0 84.7 0.5
Unclassified 516.6 73.0 120.8 277.5 287.5 1_275.4 5.4
Gross Area Surveyed$b) 3,973.-6 6,936. 4,106.8 23,48.4100
B. Mechanical Analysis
Moisture Cation Exchange Organic Matter
Sail Series Group Depth Soil Composition (%) Equivalent Capacity Content
(inches) Sand Silt Clay (%) (meq/100 gin) (%)
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)
Jhang 0- 6 86.4 10.4 3.2 4.9 5.6 0.5
(Loamy Sand) 6- 12 82.2 13.0 4.8 8.1 7.6 0.4
12-24 79.9 13.7 6.4 9.2 9.4 0.5
24-36 77.8 10.4 11.8 9.7 10.1 0.5
36-56 74.5 16.0 9.5 13.6 8.8 0.3
Farida 0- 6 61.1 25.1 13.8 12.1 8.6 0.4
(Fine Sandy Loam) 6- 12 55.8 30.6 13.6 15.8 6.8 0.3
12-24 57.0 38.7 16.6 17.7 7.8 0.3
24-39 55.0 32.3 12.7 18.6 8.6 0.4
39-49 49.4 41.4 9.2 20.4 6.3 0.3
Buchiana 0- 6 44.1 40.7 15.2 22.1 16.0 0.4
(Loam) 6- 13 44.1I 36.4 19.5 21.4 13.5 0.3
13-20 33.2 51.7 15.1 23.5 13.1 0.2
20-42 27.7 57.8 14.5 25.1 12.8 0.4
42-51 46.1 40.0 13.9 22.9 11.3 0.4
Chhraa0 02 38.0 31.8 27.8 25.6 0.4
(Clay) 6- 12 21.2 40.0 38.8 26.5 26.0 0.2
12-21 18.7 40.6 40.7 25.3 28.2 0.3
21-36 19.3 43.0 37.7 24.8 25.9 0.3
C. Chemical Analysis
Sample Depth (inches)
Soil Series Group Property(c) 0- 6 6- 12 12-24 24-36 36-48 48-60 60-72
(1) (2) (3 4 (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)
Jhang, Normal ECe 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5
(Sandy Loam) SARe 3 6 7 6 4 5 5
Jhang, Saline-Alkali EC.. 1.6 2.2 1.6 2.0 1.1 1.3 1.3
(Fine Sandy Loam) SARe. 215 2917 19 9 11 13
Fonda, Normal ECe 0.7 0.5 0.9 0:5 0.7 0.5 0.5
(Sandy Loam) SARe 2.3 1.6 3.3 1.5 2.0 2.1 2.1
Forida, Saline-Akali ~ 2.5 5.5 4.4 3.4 2.5 r2.8 1.8
(Fine Sandy Loam) SARe 29 47 46 44 46 22 15
Buchiana, Normal ECe 0.7 0.6 0.4 0..5 0.6 0.5 0.5
(Fine Sandy Loam) SARe 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 2.2 4.3 3.2
Buchiana, Saline-Akali EC_ 1.4 1.1 1.4 1.4 4.2 3.0 2.1
(Loam) SARCe 15 10 10 12 36 30 8
Chuhaikana, Normal ECe 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5




The salinity status of the soils of the region has been assessed and the soils classified on the basis of visual reconnaissance studies carried out during the WASID soil surveys. WASID also has studied the saflnity-alkali status of the soils of a number of areas by laboratory analysis of soil samples collected from boreholes located on a one square mile grid, and has classified the soils in accordance with the laboratory criteria used by the U. S. Salinity Laboratory. The results of both the visual and laboratory classifications are given in Table 16. By both methods of study a relatively high percentage of the lands is classified as saltaffected about 30 percent according to the visual survey, and 40 percent as indicated by the laboratory results. Also according to the laboratory data practically all of the saltaffected lands exhibit alkali conditions to some degree.
As judged from inspection of affected areas, interpretation of the WASI D and other laboratory data, and results obtained from field reclamation trails by the Irrigation Department, two-thirds or more of the salt-affected lands can be reclaimed by conventional leaching techniques. Approximately one-fourth of the salt-affected lands will require prolonged leaching, or leaching plus incorporation of organic matter for reclamation; and about 10 percent or less of the affected lands will require chemical amendments, such as gypsum, coupled with skilled reclamation practices.
The implications of the salinity-alkali hazards on present agriculture and future reclamation activities are described in Part II.
HUMAN RESOURCES
The census of 1961 counted 42.9 million persons in West Pakistan of which 25.9
million reside in the districts comprising the Northern Indus Plains region. According to the census data, later adjusted upward for probable undercounting, the average population density in West Pakistan was 138 persons per square mile, and in the Northern Indus Plains region 376 persons per square mile. There is a high correlation between population density and agriculture productivity. Thus the intensively cropped districts of Chaj, Rechna, and Bari Doabs have population densities in excess of 500 persons per square mile, while the recently developed, less intensively cropped areas of Thai Doab, D. I. Khan and D. G. Khan have less than 200 persons per square mile (Figure 13).
The average yearly increase in population between 1951 and 1961 was estimated to be 2.4 percent. The projected rate of population increase for the period 1961-1985 is
2.6 percent, compounded annually, but this may well rise above 3 percent if present trends in mortality and fertility rates are sustained. Approximately 85 percent of the population is classified as rural, but urban population is increasing at about twice the rate of the rural. This trend is less an indication of urban economic opportunity than a reflection of the inability of traditional agriculture to cope with rapid population growth.




Table 16
SUMMARY OF WAS ID LAND CLASSIFICATION SURVEYS
Bahawa I pur Total
Description Thai Doab Chaj Doab Rechna Doab Bar! Doab Plain Northern Indus F
(1000 acres) (1000 acres) (1000 acres) (1000 acres) (1000 acres) (1000 acres) (p4
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)
Soil Salinity Classification:0"
S1 Non-saline 2,821.2 1,606.7 4,226.6 4,786.3 2,915.9 16,356.7
S2Slightlysaline 397.4 511.2 905.6 1,179.2 492.8 3,486.2
S3Moderatelysaline 119.2 21.7 362.3 277.5 123.2 1,003.9
S4Highlysaiipe 119.2 121.7 422.7 416.2 451.7 1,531.5
516.6 73.0 20.8 277.5 123.2 1,111.1
Gross Area
Classified 3,973.6 2,434.3 6,038.0 6,936.7 4,106.8 23,489.4
Co
Soil Salinity-Alkali ciassification/d)
Normal 2,026.5 2,142.2 3,019.0 4,508.9 2,176.6 13,873.2
Saline 198.7 97.4 603.8 346.8 287.5 1,534.2
Saline-Alkali 1,430.5 73.0 905.7 1,456.7 1,314.2 5,180.1
Non-salineAlkali 3 7.9 121.7 1,509.5 624.3 328.5 2,901.9
(Number of bores) (1,176) (426) (1,411) (8,325) (5,509) (16,847)
Topography (Cut and Fill Requirements):
None 2,066.3 2,215.2 5,434.1 6,381.7 3,367.6 19,464.9
Lessthan2feet 556.3 121.7 362.3 138.7 287.5 1,466.5
Morethan2feet 1,192.1 12.2 60.4 69.4 328.5 1,662.6
Depression 0 12.2 60.4 69.4 0 142.0
Unclassified 158.9 73.0 120.8 277.5 123.2 753.4
1
(a) Not including Right Bank Indus.
(b) Visuajly estimated by WASID .
(c) Does not include areas surveyed that are outside existing canal systems.
(d) Laboratory analysis byWASID, classified by U. S. Salinity Laboratory criteria.




actually trailed population increases and the economic growth of the country only kept pace with population because of the higher rates of growth in the industrial and service sectors of the economy. However, according to the Third Five-Year Plan of the Government of Pakistan, during the last five-year period the agriculture sector showed an annual cornpound rate of growth exceeding 3 percent and the gross national product increased 5.2 percent. The rate of growth in the large-scale industrial sector was 13.0 percent but this did not make a significant impact on the overall growth owing to the small weight of this sector. From the preceding description of the resources of the Northern Indus Plains it seems evident that, with proper direction and impetus, the agricultural economy of the region can grow at a far faster rate than population. It is also evident that rapid, intensive development of agriculture will require a large labor force in lieu of mechanization which is too costly to introduce at the present level of development. Accordingly, the population of the Northern Indus Plains, which is primarily rural and traditionally oriented toward agricultural pursuits, comprises a positive asset to any program of agricultural development. This is in contrast to some developing areas in which there is a lack of experienced and competent farmers.
As agriculture develops and becomes more efficient the percentage of total population required on the farms will decrease. However, as a result of a productive agriculture sector other economic sectors will develop rapidly, providing increasing opportunities for productive labor in nonrural activities.
I NFRASTRUCTURE
Although relatively crude by the standards of advanced agricultural areas, the
agricultural infrastructure in West Pakistan probably is overdeveloped in relation to the subsistence level of development which characterizes present agriculture in the region. The principal population and commercial centers are linked by all-weather highways and railroads (Figure 14). Through the provincial Department of Agriculture, the Agricultural Development Corporation, the Agricultural Development Bank, the Agricultural Colleges, and various other bureaus and agencies, provisions have been made to furnish the essential institutional type of services and supplies, including procurement and distribution of fertilizers and selected seeds, plant protection, farm credit, extension services, and the like. Most of these programs are administered locally by the Union Councils which also are the basic political unit in Pakistan.
The current agricultural services and supply programs are modest in relation to the area involved, but this reflects lack of demand more than shortcomings in the programs. Subsistence farmers, who comprise about 70 percent of the cultivators and control nearly 35 percent of the land, have little or no need for these services. Only the more prosperous
fames che- thos wh hav su emna wel suies are abl to taeul adat




N FIGURE IS
a~ ft tAjo
a- p
I- MAN#tA J
A on
C LU Iii xi,.
aT aoso Square miles 1,597,000 Persons
0
*1
*1
(
AIr 'C AIM
(
/
Ste4
fl-I-,
UPOZEflA
DI. lOlA 382,000 0~flR0
*1A
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I
U
* 44
V
7
I
I
4
C
I
Population distribution
A
Over 450 persons per sq. mile 3 350-449 persons per sq. mile
250-349 persons per sq. mile
Less thon 250 persOns per sq. mile
------- International Boundary




FIGURE 14
9 j~
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C
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-4
*1~
I 4
2 N
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9C 4
4
I
I
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.7
4 Primory I metal led Roods
~0
Second ry I tinmeto lied) Roads I ''gill''' Railway
U K
S /
I Airport
4
A / Internotional Boundary
U /




infrastructure to accommodate future requirements. This appraisal applies particularly to the vital supply functions procurement and distribution of fertilizers and selected seeds. In fact, if the government's ambitious plans for fertilizers and improved seeds are realized, these items may be somewhat in oversupply in relation to the availability of irrigation supplies for a few years prior to the completion of Tarbela storage.







PART II
AGRICULTURE
Despite the outstanding agricultural potentialities of the Northern Indus Plains, the agriculture economy has long been stagnant, and in recent years has inhibi ted rather than stimulated the total economy. Cropping intensity and yields of most crops have not increased appreciably in the past 50 years and now rank among the lowest in the world for comparable irrigated regions. No new crops and few modern, improved seed varieties have been introduced into the traditional cropping pattern, and the use of other modern agricultural inputs such as fertilizers and plant protection is minimal for an irrigated area. Most farmers operate at a subsistence level of production, and with the rapid increase in population which has occurred since independence, exportable surpluses have dwindled and demand for agricultural products now nearly equals regional production.
The basic problem of agriculture in the Northern Indus Plains is irrigation water
supply. In the absence of adequate and timely deliveries of irrigation supplies, farmers have been unable to expand cropping intensities or to adopt modern practices. Unless present trends of supply and demand are reversed the shortfall in production will occur by 1985 and will amount to nearly 25 percent of regional demand by the year 2000.
PRESENT SITUATION
Land Holdings and Tenure
The average land holding in the region is about 9 acres. About 50 percent of the farms, comprising 10 percent of the area, have 5 acres or less and subsistence holdings of 12.5 acres or less comprise more than 75 percent of the farms and 34 percent of the area. On the other hand, 7 percent of the farms representing 38 percent of the area are larger than 25 acres.
Size of Holding (Acres)
0-5 5-12.5 12.5-25 Over 25
Percentage of farms 49 28 16 7
Percentage of area 10 24 28 38




irrigated area of D. I. Khan the average farm size is 27 acres; farms smaller than 12.5 acres account for only 8 percent of the area whereas holdings of 50 acres or more comprise over 60 percent of the area.
Approximately 50 percent of the land is farmed by tenants, commonly on a share-cropping basis. Most of the land, whether owned or leased, is farmed in small parcels. More than 50 percent of the holdings are fragmented; about one-third of the holdings consist of four or more individual parcels of land, often widely separated from one another.
Cropping Patterns and Intensities
For the purposes of this report the base reference period is taken as Rabi 1959
through Kharif 1961. Unless otherwise indicated, cropping intensity is used herein to express the sum of the Rabi and Kharif cropped acreages as a percentage of the reclamation area (RA) which, as has been defined previously, comprises the CA of the Nonsaline Zones, and the CCA of the Intermediate and Saline Zones. In the computation of the cropping intensity, areas of perennial crops are counted for both seasons.
During the base reference period 17.6 million acres were cropped annually in the reclamation area of 20.8 million acres giving an annual croppi ng intensity of 85 percent. The seasonal intensities and distribution of crops for the region are shown in Figure 15. As approximately 10 percent of the land was double cropped, only 75 percent of the culturable land was actually farmed, and 25 percent lay fallow.
Cropping patterns and intensities differ greatly from area to area and from canal
command to canal command in the region, primarily reflecting climatic constraints and the restraints imposed upon the cultivators by insufficient and untimely irrigation supplies. Other factors affecting cropping patterns and intensities are the stage of development of the area, soil texture, local demands, and the market conditions. In the older, perennially irrigated canal commands, cropping intensities and the percentage of land planted to cash crops are relatively high, whereas in the more recently developed mostly nonperennial areas cropping intensities tend to be lower and the percentage of subsistence crops such as grains, oil seeds, and pulses, much higher.
On the basis of the above factors, the Northern Indus Plains region can be divided
into four major agricultural zones (Figure 16). The traditional (1959-1961) cropping patterns, corresponding acreages, and cropping intensities for the four zones are given in Table 17. Cropping intensities by canal commands are shown in Figure 17.
Between 1960 and 1965 the regional cropping intensity increased to about 92 percent
Ir,,l ~ , rf ,llr n r~n:nnt wn~ v-~m n -n Reh- Bar* a ha




riburic
MAIZE 1.9 %/ MILLETS 3.4 %
9 VEGETABLESS%
,{t(,ISCELLANEOU 059%
KHARIF CROPS
(INTENSITY 34.6 %/)
PUVEGTABLE,0.8%
/oMISCELLANEOUS 0.5 %
,:.:,:.SUGAR CANE,.3.8.%
- ,..:.:FRUIT. 0.5../.
NOT""": CROPPED....... 50. 0/0ER
..R.B. CROPS!
:::::::::::::::::::::::::.. .. -, \n fl




FIGURE 16
~ESHAWAft
0dM ~
\, ~
r4
K
74/p $ 7t
I
4
4 4
t L
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9 $ CR 0 (P U ft
D. I. K K. 4 x -.1
I K
k
4
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/
/ I
i/
./
7
-~ LEGEND
V AGRICULTURAL ZONES
9 (Established on basiS of climate cropping
pattern ond economic/sociologic 10 ctors
~0
2
~.' / I I Zone II
I / /
I' I W Zone In
4z / / EL Zone N
7
U Internationol Boundary




Table 17
1960 CROPPING PATTERNS
Agricultural Agricultural Agricultural Agricultural
Season and Crop Zone I Zone II Zone Ill Zone IV
1,000 Percent 1,000 Percent 1,000 Percent 1,000 Percent
Acres of RA Acres of RA Acres of RA Acres of RA
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)
Kharif:
Rice 777 14.0 181 3.6 77 1.7 77 1.3
Cotton 456 8.2 665 13.3 882 19.6 436 7.6
Maize 153 2.8 168 3.4 43 1.0 30 0.5
Mijlets 180 3.2 156 3.1 127 2.8 242 4.2
Fodder 417 7.5 343 6.9 430 9.6 236 4.1
Vegetables 10 0.2 8 0.2 6 0.1 6 0.1
Miscellaneous 27 0.5 25 0.5 89 2.0 49 0.9
Sugar Cane 268 4.8 245 4.9 134 3.0 142 2.5
Fruit 21 0.4 46 0.9 18 0.4 19 0.3
0 Subtotal 2,309 41.6 1,8~7 36.7 1,806 40.1 1,237 21.7
Wheat 1900 342 1,608 32.2 1,328 295 1,120 19.7
Pulses 298 5.4 193 3.9 189 4.2 503 8.8
ailseeds 93 1.7 84 1.7 125 2.8 92 1.6
Fodder 588 10.6 555 11.1 349 7.7 189 3.3
Vegetables 37 0.7 43 0.9 46 1.0 46 0.8
Miscellaneous 35 0.6 31 0.6 19 0.4 25 0.4
Sugar Cane 268 4.8 245 4.9 134 3.0 142 2.5
Fruit 21 0.4 46 0.9 18 0.4 19 0.3
Subtotal 3,243 58.4 2,806 56.1 2,205 49.0 2,133 37.4
Total Cropped Area 5,552 4,643 4,011 3,370
Reclamation Area (1,000 cc.) 5,554 5,000 4,503 5,701
Kharif: Rabi Ratio 1:1.40 1:1.53 1:1.22 1:1.72
Cropping Intensity 100 93 89 59




Table 18
NORTHERN INDUS PLAINS
ESTIMATED\ 1960 AND 1965 IRRIGATION WATER REQUIREMENTS, SUPPLIES, AND SHORTAGES
(All values in million acre feet at head of watercourse unless noted otherwise)
RECLAMATION CANAL SUPPLIES~~~ 1960
CANAL COMMAND AREA CROPPING IRRIGATION WATER GROUND WATER IRRIGATION WATER CROPPING IRRIGATION WATER
KHARIF RABI INTENSITY REQUIREMENT SUPPLIES SHORTAGES INTENSITY REQUIREMENT
(1,000 ACRES) V0 KHARIF RABI KHARIF RABI KI-IARIF RASh KHARIF flAB!
(ii (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (II) (12) (13) (14)
THAL 1,966.9 1.40 0.99 40 0.46 1.29 0.01 0.02 0 0.28 43 0.52 1.3$
PAHARPUR 105.4 0.12 0.04 34 0.04 0.05 0 0.01 0 0 38 0.04 0.05
MUZAFFARGARH 724.9 1.29 0.10 51 0.46 0.48 0.01 0.01 0 0.37 54 0.49 0.51
D.G. RHAN 719.7 L14 0.09 4? 0.31 0.42 0.01 0.0! 0 0.32 44 0.34 0.45
UPPER JHELUM (INTERNAL) 647.3 0.65 0.25 104 0.49 0.87 0.01 0.03 0 0.59 lOS 0.52 0.91
LOWER JHELUM I, 559.9 1.31 0.97 97 1.55 3.89 0.04 0.04 0.20 0.88 100 1.63 1.92
Li. R. LINK (INTERNAL) 161.6 0.14 0.02 125 0.23 0.17 0.02 0.01 0.07 0.14 134 0.25 0.18
UPPER CHENAB (INTERNAL) 1,210.3 0.72 0.39 99 1.33 1.14 0.0? 0.08 0.54 0.69 305 1.43 1.21.
B. R.B..0. LINK (INTERNAL) 427.4 0.20 0.02 86 0.5? 0.27 0.02 0.0! 0.29 0.24 SI 0.53 0.30
CENTRAL SARI DOAS 735.6 0.38 0.31 93 0.66 0.85 0.06 0.07 0.22 0.47 98 0.70 0.89
UPPER DIPALPUR 330.4 0.33 0.03 69 0.21 0.30 0.02 0.03 0 0.24 71 0.22 0.31
LOWER CHENAB 1,805.0 1.53 1.17 10$ 1.92 2.60 0.08 0.10 0.31 1.33 110 2.04 2.62
LOWER CHENAS FEEDER I, 330.7 1.20 0.98 106 1.45 1.82 0.06 0.06 0.19 0.88 lOS 1.51 1.85
0
LOWER SARI DOAB 1,551.9 1.85 3.45 110 2.49 2.22 0.10 0.08 0.54 0.69 118 2.68 2.36
LOWER DIPALPUR 698.8 0.67 0.06 97 0.86 0.90 0.03 0.03 0.16 0.81 106 0.95 0.98
UPPER PAKPATTAN 1,024.? 0.93 0.53 82 1.24 I. IS 0.06 0.06 0.25 0.56 93 1.39 1.24
EASTERN SADIQIA 942.5 0.99 0.69 90 1.36 0.94 0.02 0.01 0.35 0.24 90 3.36 0.94
FOROWAN 430.1 0.49 0.11 66 0.32 0.41 0 0.01 0 0.29 70 0.35 0.43
RANGPUR 357.4 0.40 0.16 61 0.2? 0.28 0 0.01 0 0.11 63 0.28 0.28
HAVELI (INTERNAL) 157.8 0.17 0.10 87 0.17 0.17 0.01 0.01 0 0.06 90 0.18 0.18
SIDHNAI 796.6 0.83 0.51 100 1.20 1.04 0.04 0.03 0.33 0.50 lOT 1.29 1.12
LOWER PARPATTAN 335.9 0.32 0.38 86 0.47 0.36 0.02 0.02 0.13 0.16 93 0.50 0.39
MAILSI 677.9 0.74 0.14 74 0.79 0.57 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.40 78 0.88 0.63
BAHAWAL 576.9 0.79 0.29 77 0.74 0.49 0.04 0.03 0 0.17 78 0.75 0.49
ASBASIA 109.2 0.17 0.09 84 0.37 0.10 0.01 0 0 0.01 86 0.17 0.10
PANJNAD I, 353.8 1.99 0.82 85 2.08 1.22 0.07 0.05 0.02 0.35 87 2.14 1.24
TOTAL 20, 758.0 20.75 30.39 85 21.78 22.00 0.84 0.83 3.62 io.78 90 23.14 22.94
Note
(a) Cols. (3) and (4) ore historic median canal supplies.




PCSMAWAR FIGURE I?
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ole
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S4 I.,, LEGEND
.94
1960 CROPPING INTENSITY ~7 Greater thon 100%
I
~Abby'sia B :: to 00%
'9 ~ loternotionol Boundary
U




Irrigation Supplies and Other Inputs
Of the 17.6 million acres cropped annually during 1959-1961, 16.4 million acres were irrigated with canal supplies and about .5 million acres were irrigated with ground water from tubewells and Persian wheels. In addition, .7 million acres within the canal commanded area were cultivated as barani (rainfed) lands.
The estimated average annual irrigation requirements, supplies, and shortages for the traditional cropping pattern for the 1959-1961 period by canal command are shown ;n Table 18. The critical inadequacy of irrigation water supplies in relation to the area being farmed in the Northern Indus Plains is evident from this table. Even the relatively modest water requirements of the traditional cropping patterns and intensities were not being satisfied. The full annual water requirement for the crop acreages and cropping patterns is estimated to be 43.8 million acre feet at the heads of water courses. Canal supplies and supplemental pumpage averaged 32.8 milIlion acre feet, but the shortfall was greater than the difference between deliveries and requirements because Thai, Right Bank Indus, and, to a lesser extent, other areas received supplies particularly in Kharif which were surplus to their requirements. Thus, even at the very low cropping intensity of 85 percent, the annual irrigation water shortage for the region was 14.4 million acre feet comprised of 3.6 million acre feet in Kharif and 10.8 million acre feet in Rabi. Rabi shortages for the various canal commands ranged from nil to more than 80 percent of requirements and averaged 49 percent; Kharif shortages ranged from nil to about 55 percent and averaged 16 percent. It should be emphasized that the true shortages are somewhat larger than seasonal accounting indicates because of the untimeliness of deliveries within the seasons, especially in the nonperennial canals during Kharif. For example, historic canal deliveries in the UCC command have averaged 250 percent of requirements during May but only about 50 percent of requirements during July, August, and September.
The estimated seasonal supplies and shortages by canal command against the estimated cropping intensity for 1965 also are shown in Table 18. Between 1960 and 1965 mean annual irrigation supplies increased by about 6.3 maf owing to public and private ground-water development. However, as the cropping intensity also increased, from 85 to 92 percent, only 3.7 maf of the additional supplies were useful in relieving the base shortage of 14.4 maf. Again it should be noted that the seasonal accounts underestimate the actual shortage because of the untimeliness of intraseasonal deliveries.
Water shortages of this magnitude have had profound effects on the agricultural economy as indicated by the following.
1. Shortage of irrigation water is directly responsible for much of the spread
and increasing severity of salinity and alkali problems in the Punjab. The
rapidly, inclrn esng dearnds C forv n Aoo a orrae as forcedk the cutvaro




2. It has been clearly demonstrated in West Pakistan and elsewhere that, without
adequate irrigation supplies, response to fertilizers generally is uneconomical
or insignificant and often can have deleterious effects. The local studies have
shown that with adequate irrigation, the soils of the Punjab respond favorably to fertilizers. Yet inspection of Figure 18 shows that Pakistan cultivators are
using very little fertilizer, clearly because water supplies are inadequate. The extent of underfertilization is indicated by the fact that per acre application in
the United Arab Republic is about 24 times as large, and for the entire world
5.6 times as large, as for Pakistan.
3. As a consequence of the historic deficiencies in water supply and fertilizer use,
the common seed varieties are those that require a minimum of water and produce relatively well under conditions of low fertility. However, such seeds,
most of which are retained from previous crops, do not respond well to increased
inputs of water and fertilizer. Furthermore, the seed is impure and often infected
with insects, the percent germination is low, and a high proportion is infected
with plant diseases.
4. Pest and disease control is entirely inadequate because at present levels of production it is not economic. Inadequate use of pesticides, without doubt, has
had a significant effect on the yields of the more vulnerable crops, particularly
cotton, rice, and sugar cane. It is estimated that not over 10 percent of the
crop acreage receives any protective measures at all, and that not over one
percent is adequately protected. And in recent years, there has been a decline
in pesticide importation.
The cumulative effect of shortages of irrigation supply is indicated by:
(a) The traditional cropping patterns and low intensities which are characteristic of a subsistence economy and feature no new important crops.
(b) The present Kharif--Rabi cropping ratio of about 1 to 1 .4, which is overbalanced in favor of Rabi subsistence crops rather than the more profitable
Kharif cash crops.
(c) The low per acre yields, resulting largely from relatively little use of
improved seed varieties, fertilizers, and pesticides, inputs that generally
are uneconomical if irrigation supplies are not adequate.
Yields and Production




70
60
o CONSUMPTION OF FERTILIZER
C IN SELECTED COUNTRIES
C (FROM"FAO PRODUCTION YEARBOOKI964)
0.
a.
o
C)
N U,
m
-J
I
40
z o LEG END
I
------Nitrogen (N)
U, -----Phosphate (P2 05)
z 30
0 C-,
I
(0
20
Average World
CD
Consumption of: N---.
w
I0
4
0 ~ MEXICO CHILE WORLD AVG. SPAIN U.S. A. ISRAEL




Table 19
BASE STATUS OF AGRICULTURE 1959-1961
CrpHarvested Area Yield Crop Production
Crp(Million Acres) (Maunds Per Acre) (Million Maunds)
Rice (paddy) 1.1 18 19.8
Sugar Cane (gur) 0.8 348 27.2
Cotton (seed cotton) 2.4 819,2(1)
Mai ze 0.4 12 4.8
Millets (jowar and bafra) 0.7 6 4.2
K. Fodder (fresh weight) 1.4 300 420.0(1)
Wheat 6.0 12 72.0
Pulses 1.2 6 7.2
01 Iseeds 0.4 5 2.0
R. Fodder (fresh weight) 1.7 310 527.0(1)
Vegetables 0.2 110 22.0
Fruit 0.1 28 2.8
Miscel laneous 0.3 -- -Total 16.7 1,128.2
Non- Food Crops 966.2
Food Crops 162.0
Note: (1) Non-Food Crops
The world average for food crop production during this same period was approximately 27 maunds per acre. Thus, the average yield for the cropped lands of the Northern Indus Plains, almost all of which were irrigated, was only about half of the world average. It should be noted that most of the world's cropland is not irrigated and that yields generally are higher in irrigated than in unirrigated areas.
During the five-year period, 1960-1965, owing to augmentation of irrigation
supplies by installation of public tubewells in SCARP Projects 1, 2, and 3, and by accelerated construction of private tubewells, there was a 20 to 25 percent increase in agricultural production in the Northern Indus Plains. It is estimated that half of this increase in production resulted from increases in cropping intensity and half: from larger irrigation deltas, both made possible by public and private development of ground-water supplies.




Table 20
INDEX OF PRODUCTION AND PRODUCTIVITY (1949-1950 = 100)
Itm1931- 1939- 1949- 1954- 1959- 19641932 1940 1950 1955 1960 1965
Regional Population ....- 100 111 125 142
Production of Food Crops ...-- 100 96 109 131
Wheat Acreage 89 88 100 102 117 127
Wheat Production 66 89 100 81 100 117
Wheat Yield Per Acre 74 101 100 80 85 92
Wheat Production Per Capita -- -- 100 73 80 82
Souce:"Areage, Production and Prices of Major Agriculture Crops of West Pakistan
(Punjab), 931-1959, by Abdur Rab; Stat. Paper No. 1, Inst. Develop.
Economics, 1961; and
"Pakistan Basic Facts," 4th Edition, Ministry of Finance, 1966.
Further evidence of the unprogressive status of agriculture in Pakistan is presented in Table 21. Not only did world averages for all crops listed exceed Pakistan's yields in both 1950 and 1960, but during this period in Pakistan the average yield of four crops actually decreased, three increased only slightly, and only two kept pace with world averages.
Other striking comparisons can be made. In Figure 19 the average yields of both
rice and wheat in 15 countries in 1909-1913 are compared with the yields obtained in 19591961. In Pakistan-India average yields of wheat and rice, as well as most other crops, have remained virtually unchanged during the past 50 years. However, during this same period the yield of wheat increased from 50 to 280 percent in 9 of the 15 countries listed and the yield of rice increased from 50 to 170 percent in 12 of a somewhat different list of 15 countries. During this same period the world average yield of wheat increased about 50 percent and of rice increased more than 60 percent. Of greatest significance is the fact that in most cases relative rank based on productivity has changed radically in the last few decades. From the changes in rank it is obvious that the changes in productivity are not closely related to natural resources, climate or education; rather they apparently reflect the availability of important agricultural inputs such as water, fertilizers, improved seed varieties and pesticides, and the application of advances in agri cultural technology.
This conclusion is supported by compare son of agriculture in Pakistan and the U. A. R.




Table 21
1950-1960 CHANGES IN CROP YIELDS FOR VARIOUS GEOGRAPHICAL REGIONS(a)
(Yields shown In pounds per acre)
North Latin Near Far United U.A.R.
Crop America America East East Africa World States (Egypt) Pakistan
(1) (25 (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10)
Wheat
1950 Average 1,035 937 812 705 535 901 999 1,642 776
1960 Average 1,374 1,178 892 785 580 1,t080 1,481 2,275 732
Increase 33% 25% 10% 11I% 8% 20% 48% 39% -6%
Barley
1950 Average 1,294 946 857 928 598 1,017 1, 276 1,713 598
1960 Average 1, 544 964 892 937 526 1, 294 1, 606 2,347 562
Increase 19% 2% 4% 1% -12% 27% 26% 37%-6
Maize
1950 Average 2,222 937 1,356 669 678 1,410 2,222 1,865 874
1960 Average 3,623 1,026 1,570 874 892 2,757 3,614 2, 186 919
Increase 63% 9% 16% 31% 32% 96% 63% 17% 5%
Sorghum
l950 Average 1,124 812 999 339 -- 500 1,124 2,418 428
1960 Average 2,445 1,338 1,115 437 -- 857 2,445 2,998 446
Increase 118% 65% 12% 29% -- 71% 118% 24% 4%
Millet
1950 Average -- 669 571 339 -- 375 ....- 330
1960 Average -- 794 642 384 -- 473 ....- 419
Increase -- 19% 12% 13% -- 26% -- -- 27%
Sesame Seed
1950 Average -- 473 518 178 286 321 -- 705 375
1960 Average -- 580 419 170 303 259 -- 866 348
Increase -- 23% -19% -4% 6% -19% -- 23%-%
Potato
1950 Average 13,920 4,729 7,852 7,138 4,818 9,548 14,366 12,849 7,049
l960OAverage 18,917 5,443 9,815 8,388 5,711 9,815 19,720 14,366 5,800
Increase 36% 15% 25% 17% 19% 3% 37% 12% -18%
Sugar
1950 Average -- -- -- -- -- -- 4,078 6,496 3,025
1960 Average .... a .-... 5,280 8,316 3,090
Increase -- - -.... -- -- 29% 28% 2%




U. A. R. is five times that of West Pakistan, and it is considered an agri culturally progressive area whereas West Pakistan is viewed as an underdeveloped area. This suggests that West Pakistan yields primarily reflect the availability of irrigation water and its interrelations with other inputs, rather than reflecting differences in the skills, education or industry of the farmers or contrasts in natural agricultural resources.
It is tempting to blame the cultivator for the primitive state of agriculture in West Pakistan. But in fact, the majority of cultivators are highly efficient in the use of their water and land resources. The traditional cropping patterns, intensities, Kharif-Rabi ratios, and attendant low yields have evolved and been retained primarily because they represent the most advantageous integration of all crop production factors under existing conditions of supplies and incentives.
Clearly the provision of adequate irrigation water supplies and concomitant drainage are the fundamental requirements for increased productivity. Adequate water supplies and drainage must be provided to create the environment and incentives necessary for investment in other required inputs. Until these prerequisites are satisfied, no appreciable changes can occur in the traditional agricultural practices.
CRISIS OF DEVELOPMENT AND DEMAND
Economic appraisal of the economy of Pakistan commonly centers on and emphasizes
the growing gap between production and demand for food. The critical nature of the problem is indicated by Figure 20 which shows the relationship between current trends in regional net food production and regional demand projected to the year 2000. Prior to World War I the Northern Indus Plains region was termed the "breadbasket" of the sub-continent. Yields of most crops compared favorably with world standards, local production exceeded demand, and there were annual food exports from the region. Subsequently, agricultural progress has been virtually nil, with yield per acre and output per agricultural worker show-ing negligible change, whereas population and demand have increased markedly. There has been a large increase in total regional production since World War I and a moderate increase since World War II, but growth of production has not matched the growth in demand, and has been largely in proportion to the increase in the cropped area rather than to increases in productivity.
With the ongoing public tubewell projects and continued installation of private
tubewells, irrigation water supplies will continue to increase for some years. As a consequence of the augmented supplies the rate of increase of crop production until about 1980 will be in excess of the one and a half percent normally anticipated. Assuming continuaflon of present trends in private tubewell installation and in productivity, and no further public




FIGURE 19
PHILIPPINES ,
CEYLON Z, 1
BRAZIL
MALAYA '"mLEGEND
M EXCO ee I 1909-1913
MEXICO 958- 1960
U.S.S.R.
ARGENTI NA 1111111
PAKISTAN- INDIA : RICE
u.S.A.
CHINA (TAIWAN) -I
JAPAN
ITALY ;
UJ.A.R.
AUSTRALIA
SPAIN "
TUN ISIA
MEXICO LEGEND
B ULGAR IA I19589- 1
PORTUGAL
ARGENTINA l
u.SS.R.
AUSTRALIA "
PAKISTAN- INDIA ]WHE AT
SPAIN /
U.S.A.
ITALY '1
POLAND
HUNGARY
FRANCE
JAPAN




30
25
[IIJ Food Deficit
Lii
20
Demand~~
a
Co -C-.
z
0 I- zt...
C)
35 I
hi
2 '-Production
0 Co
2
0
I0
-J
5 NORTHERN INDUS PLAINS
FOOD PRODUCTION AND DEMAND 1960 to 2000 WITHOUT CONTINUING RECLAMATION PROGRAM
(Excluding Livestock Products)
I a
1960 1965 1970 3975 1980 9985 1990 3995
YEARS




Table 22
PROJECTED CROP AND FOOD PRODUCTION IN THE NORTHERN INDUS PLAI NS
WI THOUT ADDI TIONAL RECLAMATION PROJECTS (Values in million metric tons)
Gross Crop Net Food Demand
Year Production Production For Food
1960 42 4.3 4.5
1965 51 5.3 5.3
1970 66 7.2 6.5
1975 80 8.8 8,0
1980 93 10.3 9.7
1985 108 11.9 11.7
1990 123 13.6 14.2
1995 139 15.2 7.2
2000 154 17.1 20.4
According to these projections food production in the region will keep pace with
the regional demand until about 1985. However, the modest surpluses of food produced in the Northern Indus Plains region until then will not satisfy the shortages which will accrue from the other regions of West Pakistan. The effect of the food gap is evident in the increasing value of grain imports into the province which have been required to satisfy the minimal food requirements. Prior to about 1950, West Pakistan was self-sufficient in grain. By 1965 the annual value of grain imports had increased to Rs 600 million despite the rise production between 1960 and 1965. If this trend were to continue, the value of grain imports would rise to about Rs 2,000 million annually by 1985. As accumulated grain surpluses in the United States are practically exhausted, most of the wheat requirements, if available at all, will have to be purchased on the open market with disastrous effects on the Pakistan economy. This kind of situation cannot be tolerated in the economy of an agrarian nation, and development planning must concentrate on the elimination of the potential food deficits.
However, to stress only the shortfall in food production overlooks the more fundamental effects of the failure of agriculture. Obviously, to sustain a viable economy an agrarian nation must do more than just meet its internal requirements. Therefore the real measure of the agricultural problem is the economic gap between actual production which could realistically be expected with reasonable development of available resources. The economic gap includes both the food gap and the wealth which has been and is being lost




agriculture in the Northern Indus Plains, it is not unreasonable to assume that regional productivity for most crops should equal or exceed world averages. On this basis, present gross production of food and fiber for the region should be on the order of 100 million tons per year. This is double the 1965 regional production. Considering scheduled increases in water supplies and other factors, total crop production in the region will be increasing at a rate of about three percent per year compounded until about 1980. However, even on this basis the economic gap in production would not decrease but would be on the order of 35 million tons by the year 2000 or 23 percent of total annual production. This must be considered as a conservative estimate, but it indicates the order of magnitude of the problem.
The effect of the economic gap is evident in the malaise of the total economy.
Despite its moribund state, agriculture remains the dominant sector of the economy and the chief occupation of the population. But at the levels of productivity which prevail, about 75 percent of the cultivators most of those with about 12 acres or less operate on a subsistence basis, and do not participate significantly in the economy either as surplus producers or consumers. Moreover, these subsistence farmers control about 35 percent of the land and hence 35 percent of the canal supplies. It is doubtful whether a viable economy can develop in a situation where such a proportion of the resources of the primary sector are consumed in maintaining a subsistence economy.
POTENTIAL YI ELDS AND PRODUCTIVI TY
The Northern Indus Plains has perhaps the world's most favorable environment for
very large scale, intensive, irrigated agriculture. Here is found a unique combination of the natural resources essential to a highly productive irrigation economy a favorable climate conducive to year-around farming; vast areas of arable soils well suited for intensive cropping; and abundant supplies of excellent quality water from the Indus River system and from the immense ground-water reserves. In addition, owing to the high rural population density and the present stage of agricultural development, there is a large underemployed reservoir of agricultural labor.
Climate, soils, water, and the availability of labor offer no significant restraints to optimum crop yields and production. Attainment of potential crop yields is therefore largely a technical problem, primarily one of incorporating the necessary inputs water, adequate drainage, good seed varieties, fertilizers, pesticides, etc. in the correct proportions and according to the latest knowledge of agricultural science. Realization of full potential production simply requires combining optimum yields with maximum practical croppi ng intensities.
Whereas all growth factors Drobablv have not been identified, agriculturists are




However, as natural resources and labor are not restraints to yield levels in the
Northern Indus Plains, reasonable figures for immediate and near future optimum yields can be deduced from recorded yields already achieved by Punjabi farmers, and from yields achieved in comparable developed irrigated areas elsewhere in the world.
Table 23 lists record yields obtained by Punfabi farmers in the 1964-1965 crop year as reported by the Department of Agriculture, and some "record" yields reported by other organizations.
Table 23
RECORD YIELDS OBTAINED BY PUNJABI FARMERS
Reported
Crop Reported by Dept. of Agriculture(1) by Other
Organizations2 )
District Mounds per Acre Maunds per Acre
Wheat Mianwali 71 82
Rice (paddy) Sargodha 75 77
Maize Lyal lpur 65 84
Cotton (seed cotton) Sadiqabad 49
Barley Sargodha 48 -'Sugar cane (gur) Kabi rwala 180 191
Gram Sargodha 35
01 Iseeds -- -- 32
Berseem (fresh weight) -- -- 1,630
Groundnut Piple 90 --Guara Lahore 45
(1) Grown in 1964-1965 in farm fields from 0. 15 to 1 acre in area.
(2) Grown before 1964 in farm fields; districts and size of cropped area not given.
Tables 24 and 25 give outstanding, but not record, yields obtained recently by
American farmers and Experimental Station workers in the southwestern United States, a highly developed region similar to the Punjab in natural resources and frequently used as a comparison for irrigated areas.




Table 24
OUTSTANDING FARM YIELDS* OBTAINED IN CALIFORNIA, U .A 1
"Crop Year Maunds Lcto
"Crop Year Per Acre Lcto
Wheat 1965 92 Sacramento Valley
Rice (paddy) 1966 109 Sacramento Val ley
Maize 1966 114 San Joaquin Valley
Cotton (seed cotton) 1966 96 Imperial Valley
Sugar cane (sugar) 1961 243 Imperial Valley
(1) From M. D. Miller, University of California, A. E. 5., February 1967.
* Not record yields.
Table 25
RECENT YIELDS* FROM CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATIONS(1)
Crop Year ~Maunds Lcto
Crop Year Per Acre Lcto
Sugar Beets (sugar) 1965 164 -Pulses 1966 44 --Barley 1965 79 Tule Lake Area
Sorghum (grain) 1966 109 San Joaquin Valley
Sorghum (forage,
70% H20) 1966 1,210 San Joaquin Valley
Winter Forage
(70%/ H20) 1966 610 -(1) From M. D. Miller, University of California, A. E. S., February 1967.
* Not record yields.
The outstanding farm and Experiment Station yields obtained in California exceed
the 1964-1965 record yields for the Northern Indus Plains by 25 to 95 percent for compar-




reclamation of salt-affected and waterlogged soils; increased farm inputs, such as improved seeds, adequate fertilization and complete pest control; improved farmer education and skills; and probable advances in agricultural technology, the crop yields indicated in Table 26 are potentially attainable in the reasonably near future.
Table 26
FUTURE POTENTIAL CROP YIELDS NORTHERN JNDUS PLAINS
Crop Maunds
Crop Per Acre
Kharif:
Ri ce (paddy) 67
Cotton (seed cotton) 60
Maize 70
MilIlets 55
Fodder (fresh weight) 1,000
Vegetables 300
Rabi:
Wheat 60
OilIseeds 35
Fodder (fresh weight) 1,000
Pulses 35
Vegetables 250
Perennial:
Sugar cane (gur) 120
Fruit 170
Except for cotton, maize, and oilseeds, the record 1964-1965 yields in the Punjab listed in Table 23 exceed the above values; also, the recent outstanding (not record) yields obtained in California exceed all of the above future potential yield values.
Attainable Yields and Production
It is obvious that the full productive potential of an area is not a realistic goal. But with adenquate wnter suppnlies aind drainne.. and with ain infrnstrucrture capabkle nf




1. Adequate irrigation water supplies.
2. The rate that cultivators can make effective use of increased water supplies.
Pakistani cultivators have repeatedly demonstrated that they can put water to
good use as rapidly as it is supplied. The most recent example of this is
reflected in the performance of cultivators in areas served by the recently completed Sidhnai-Mailsi Link Canal. They achieved significantly higher intensities with the augmented supplies which became available during the maintenance period, before the canal was placed in normal operation.
3. The availability of other inputs, such as fertilizers, improved seeds, and pesticides. Because of the present shortage of water, many of these inputs can be
provided more rapidly than they can be put to economic use, but this will
change when ample water supplies are available.
4. The availability of adequate ancillary facilities or personnel for technical
training, research, storage, transportation, credit, marketing, and the like
5. Satisfactory prices for produce; i.e., adequate incentives.
In practice, the various measures available for markedly increasing levels of production cannot be effectively separated. For example, along with adequate water supplies, the full development program presupposes sufficient fertilizers to permit maintenance of soil fertility without the inefficiency of fallowing. The fertilizer program will be of little value without provision for adequate water supplies and for improved seed varieties which will respond to fertilizer efficiently. The benefits of the three primary inputs, in turn, rely heavily on modern protective measures to control the plant disease, insect and weed infestations that accompany bountiful crop production. Furthermore, vigorous educational and extension efforts will be required to help guide the farmers in integrating their management practices as productivity increases; ample credit facilities will be needed to make many of the future aspects of the program possible; and effective distribution and marketing facilities must be provided for both farm supplies and produce.
Estimates of the probable average future yield of each crop after completion of the
reclamation program are set forth in Column (3) of Table 27. The estimates of future yields range from 46 to 70 percent of the reasonably attainable potential yields for the various crops previously considered, the overall average being about 60 percent. In Figure 21, the future yields of most of the crops are compared with present and potential yields for the region, and with present world averages and yields in advanced agricultural areas.




Table 27
PROJECTED CROP YIELDS IN THE NORTHERN INDUS PLAINS (Values in maunds per acre unless otherwise noted)
Increase Future in
Future Over Re lation to
Crop 1960 Base (After 1960 Base Potential Potential
Reclamation) (Percent) (Percent)
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
Khari f:
Rice (paddy) 18 43 239 67 64
Cotton (seed cotton) 8 33 412 60 55
Maize 12 37 308 70 53
Millets 6 28 467 55 51
Fodder (fresh weight) 300 654 218 1,000 65
Vegetables 110 176 160 300 59
Miscell Ianeous 17 37 218 65 57
Robi:
Wheat 12 41 342 60 68
Qi Iseeds 5 16 320 35 46
Fodder (fresh weight) 310 616 199 1,000 62
PulIses 6 20 334 35 57
VegetablI es 110 176 160 250 70
MiscelIlaneous 17 37 218 65 57
Perennial:
Sugar cane (gur) 34 71 209 120 59
Fruit 28 107 382 170 63
Average 100% 279% 59%
In summary, future yields of individual crops will range from about 1.6 to 4.7 times,
and average 2.8 times, 1960 yields. However, the future yields expected after reclamation are significantly less than the estimated full potential yields, most of which have already been exceeded by numerous farmers in the Punlab.




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PART III
DEVELOPMENT CONCEPTS
According to the foregoing, Pakistan has enormous resources of land and water; these are highly developed, and as a result irrigated agriculture is by far the dominant sector of the economy. But the agricultural economy has been moribund for decades. It has shown some vigor in recent years largely because of the development by public and private interests of ground-water supplies for irrigation. However, the recent growth rate of about two to three percent per annum is inadequate for the needs of the economy, and with respect to the Northern Indus Plains, it is only a fraction of the potential which could be attained under an aggressive program of development. Moreover, even this modest growth probably cannot be sustained without continued public works because private development will reach a plateau when about 40 percent of the culturable lands are served by private wells.
BASIC CONCEPTS
The agricultural economy of the region is poised for the kinds of radical changes
and accelerated growth which have been experienced in similar terrains where modern irrigated agriculture is practiced. This appraisal is indicated by analysis of the factors involved in agricultural development including the resource base, existing development, infrastructure, demand for agricultural products, and farmers attitudes and incentives. The only obvious restraints to the development of a modern agricultural economy are water factors irrigation supply and drainage.
Alleviation of water supply deficiencies and drainage hazards will trigger a revolution in agriculture, which, coupled with progressive government programs for procurement and distribution of fertilizers, selected seeds, and pesticides, will bring production up to the level of world standards for regions where irrigation is practiced on a large scale.
In view of the large expanding gap in West Pakistan between agricultural production and demand, the latter including both internal uses and the requirements of the export trade, it is evident that time is of paramount importance. Development policies must emphasize rate of growth the faster the better rather than conservation criteria.
PUBLIC WORKS AND THE ROLE OF PRIVATE DEVELOPMENT
Ter ale lee *n aeo aerrsucd lar~t l nl err;v




The only conceivable alternative to public works is private development of groundwater resources. But according to the analysis given in Volume Ill, private ground-water development should not be promoted as a substitute for public development. The marginal economic elements and physical problems of distribution combine to limit the intensity of private development to something on the order of 40 percent of the culturable lands in a typical area. Clearly, Pakistan cannot cultivate development policies which relegate 60 percent of its land and water resources and 75 percent of its rural human resources to a subsistence level of economic development.
Apart from the obvious economic justification for a public works program, there is also the matter of government responsibility to the irrigators. As the irrigation system has been constructed and operated as a public monopoly, the government is obliged to maintain the system and modernize it as required to assure reasonable economic returns to cultivators for their investment in labor and capital. This is a fundamental obligation of any public utility, and it yields benefits in the form of increased government revenues, as well as a higher level of economic development.
Finally, there are the vital questions of management and control of water resources and of the irrigation system. These have not been significant factors to date. However, the completion of the IBP works, including the storages, coupled with intensive development of ground water will permit flexible management, which in turn can assure adequate and timely irrigation deliveries to all areas with integrated supplies even during periods of low surface-water flow. To achieve this flexibility, however, the government will have to control a basic network of tubewells which serve the entire fresh-water area. Under private development the flexibility of the system will be sacrificed, as obviously no prudent private operator wllI deliberately overpump his own ground-water supply during periods of low surface flow only for the privilege of transferring canal supplies to relieve shortages in another area.
This is just one aspect of the management operation. There are others, including
many that cannot be anticipated until the response of the aquifer to development is known with some precision. It is not possible to assign a value to the utility of flexible management, but this is obviously a very valuable factor, and it will not be realized unless the entire system including a basic network of wells, is under the control of one operating authority.
It is recognized that private development can be subsidized and otherwise stimulated to increase the rate of installation of private wells and to expand the area served by private supplies. However, as 10 or more private wells are required to substitute for one public well, the costs in public funds of subsidizing private development will approach, and may exceed, the costs of public development without achieving the flexibility of water manage-




the public program, providing a vital impetus to development in favorable areas before the construction of public projects. To minimize interference with private development, other factors being equal, public projects should be scheduled first in areas with the least private development.
Private development will also supplement the public program. The inception of a
public project presumably will suppress the rate of development of private supplies, but to an uncertain degree. Certainly, the more progressive and prosperous farmers will continue with their development so long as it offers a higher return on their investment and labor than other activities. But public projects will not supplant existing private wells. Rather than abandon their investments, farmers will maintain existing wells for supplemental supplies to support higher cropping intensities and larger acreages of high-water-use cash crops. This may result in a somewhat reduced utilization of the private wells, but it will prove to be a highly economic proposition from the cultivator's standpoint.
COROLLARY PUBLIC WORKS
It is evident that full development of the water resources of the region must ultimately involve ground-water development, canal remodeling, and additional storage and diversion of works beyond those provided by the Indus Basin Projects. Apart from their common function of water supply, the development alternatives are interdependent in other ways. Thus, surface storage is required to provide power for ground-water development and regulated deliveries to the canal systems; and ground-water development is required to provide drainage control for the canal-irrigated lands. The question remains then as to the staging of the various kinds of development, to insure flexibility in the execution of future development programs, and to derive maximum benefits from the interdependent features of the alternative programs.
According to the studies made in connection with the regional plan, ground water must be given first priority in the development program. This ranking derives from two overriding considerations. Firstly, are the drainage benefits which are derived as byproducts of ground-water development. Ground-water development, in effect, satisfies both irrigation and drainage requirements for the cost of a single system. Secondly, is the highly favorable cost of ground water compared to stored water. Various studies have shown that the economic cost of stored water is about two and one-half times that of ground water Rs. 20 per acre foot for ground water versus about Rs. 50 for stored water. The latter estimate can be debated, and it certainly does not apply in the case of the Indus Plains Reservoir described in Part VI. However, by any rational analysis there is definitely a marked differential in costs in favor of ground water.




Basin range from Rs. 350 to Rs. 450 per acre foot, and are about Rs. 140 per acre foot for the Indus Plains Reservoir which is proposed in Part VI for future development. In contrast, the capital cost of ground water, expressed in equivalent units, is on the order of Rs. 70 per acre foot and the ground water is available near the point of use, whereas the stored water is subject to losses of 25 percent or more before delivery to the same point in the system.
Other advantages of ground-water development relate to the timing and flexibility of ground-water works. Ground-water development can proceed continuously at a rate commensurate with the availability of funds and with a relatively brief time lag between the expenditure of construction funds and the implementation of development. The direction and scope of the program can be modified at any stage of development to accomodate changing conditions and new objectives. And as each project represents a relatively small commitment in terms of the total program, the uncertainties and risks associated with rapid and intensive development are minimized and can be accounted for as the program moves forward.
Surface storage and distribution works receive second priority for public works
development. As described in Part VI, off-channel storage and complementary diversion and distribution works can be constructed which will equate the remaining surplus flow of the Indus River to uses at a unit economic cost nearly comparable to that of ground water, when appropriate credit is taken for benefits to Tarbela and Mangla power operations. However, the addition of substantial surface-water supplies to the irrigation systems of the region would aggravate existing or incipient drainage hazards and necessitate the construction of drainage works which would approach or exceed the cost of ground-water development projects. Moreover, the implementation of the Indus Plains Reservoir should not be undertaken until after Tarbela is in operation, as much of the benefits of the off-channel storage, particularly in the early years, will derive from its interdependence with Tarbela power and flow regulation operations.
Accordingly, as a general planning concept, implementation of additional major surface-storage works after Tarbela is deferred until the regional development of ground water is sufficiently advanced to assure control of subsurface drainage, at least in the Nonsaline Zones; and until agricultural development has advanced to the stage where demand for water exceeds supplies available under feasible levels of ground-water development.
Canal remodeling has lowest priority in the development program because the existing diversion and distribution facilities, including the IBP works, have adequate capacity in relation to present supply and demand considerations. With respect to the Indus canals, there is no demand for additional canal supplies during the period of surplus Kharif flows.' Present supplies are not fully utilized and future demands will be satisfied by tubewell




Accordingly, as an independent activity, canal remodeling offers little scope for development of additional irrigation supplies in the Northern Indus Plains. It does not figure prominantly in regional development until after construction of the Indus Plains Reservoir and the related link canals system.
CONJUNCTIVE USE OF GROUND AND SURFACE WATER SUPPLIES
The development program described herein draws heavily on the substitution and
transfer principles of water management. Implicite in the plan is the concept that historical allocations of canal supplies are not sacrosant that management is only obligated to equal or exceed historical supplies, irrespective of the source, or sources, of the supplies.
Much of the benefits of the development of ground-water resources is derived from the flexibility that tubewell projects impart to the management of the total water supply. Thus, with a tubewell project in operation in a typical area, there is latitude for substitution of ground water for canal supplies during periods when unused pumping capacity is available. The canal supplies then can be transferred to other areas not yet served by tubewell projects. Under this kind of management the full capacities of all facilities tubewells, canals, and storage and diversion works can be used with maximum efficiency to great economic advantage, especially during the critical period of water supply between 1970 and 1975 before Tarbela storage becomes available.
EXPLOITATION OF MARGINAL WATER RESOURCES
About 2.8 million acres of the region are underlain by marginal quality ground
water marginal in the sense that its use as irrigation supply entails special water management practices to regulate the salinity of the applied water, and to insure adequate leaching of salts from the irrigated soils. The economic utility of the intermediate quality ground water has been recognized since the inception of the development program. But the use of these resources for irrigation supply has been discouraged on the grounds that management of the water would be too burdensome both for the operations staff and the cultivators. However, planning studies made in connection with the preparation of SCARP 5 for Lower Rechna Doab indicate that the special practices required for the leaching concept of management of the intermediate supplies can be incorporated into routine system operations, so that use of the supplies will not generate major problems of management for the operations personnel or for the cultivator.
Accordingly, a primary feature of the development plan is the regulated development and use of ground water in the range of concentration of 1,500 to 4,000 ppm of dissovedA solids Aprtl from, then obious alue a~ ofk he war supp~ie ore cratedAna develont




DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY
Two stages of development are contemplated for the Northern Indus Plains. The Development Plan is concerned chiefly with the first stage which involves more or less maximum development of the land resources by the most expeditious and economic means, and exploiting to the utmost all existing facilities and works. The second stage is discussed herein only in the context of future development the future requi rements for water supplies, the physical works and costs associated with the development of those supplies, and the probable timing of construction of the works.
To accommodate the immediate requirements of rapid, intensive, development at the least capital cost, the Development Plan features the full exploitation of the groundwater resources of the region coupled with optimum use of the existing surface-water storage and distribution facilities, including the IBP works. Ground-water development will provide sufficient irrigation supplies to support average cropping intensities of 150 percent in the areas where the ground water is of acceptable quality for use as irrigation supply. These areas comprise about 80 percent of the region and are presently cropped at an underwatered intensity of about 85 percent. Moreover, in conjunction with redistribution of seasonal canal supplies, and more effective use of the capacities of existing surface water and distribution works, the ground-water development will provide significant supplemental supplies to 3.6 million acres of land which are underlain by saline ground water.
The objective of" the program is to foment rapid growth of agriculture to close the
gap in production and demand, and to impart sufficient momentum to the economy to override minor restraints. Development needs, rather than conservation criteria, will dominate planning policy. Thus, the program may involve local or temporary overdevelopment of ground water and appropriate compromises of standards of irrigation requirements and quality of water, and any other measures which will accelerate development.
The program of physical works will consist largely of ground-water development
projects. Canal remodeling and drainage works will comprise a minor part of the program and will be undertaken only in local areas as subsidiary features of tubewell projects. The construction schedule will be unbalanced to emphasize rapid installation of wells during the early years of development before Tarbela becomes operative the period when the shortages of irrigation water supplies will be most acute. Most of the works will be in operation by 1975, and the entire program of physical construction will be completed by 1980.
In terms of economic development, this will be a period of marked transition for
all sectors of the economy. Initially, the direct benefits of increased production will be most significant and will derive largely from increased intensity of cultivation and improved water management. As development proceeds, the growth of production will tend to hinge mnre aind more on nincrsed r proutivity throughni he~ use of fertlizerrs,- slected seeds,-




Future (post-1980) development will chiefly involve consolidation of the physical irrigation plant for sustained long-term growth based on advances in technology, rather than on increased intensity of cultivation. Physical development will comprise surface storage and distribution works, and drainage facilities, to relieve the problems associated with the accelerated development and to bring up to full development the Saline Zones which cannot be served directly by tubewell projects. The essential feature of the future program is the Indus Plains Reservoir which will provide about 20 million acre feet of offchannel storage for Indus River runoff. This will equate the mean runoff of the Indus to uses. In conjunction with a new cross-link extending from Kalabagh to Central Rechna Doab, and appropriate remodeling of the B-S Link and of the canal systems serving Lower Rechna and Lower Chaj Doabs, the Indus Plains Reservoir will provide a final solution to the problem of irrigation water supply to the Northern Indus Plains. More than that, it will allow for a 50 to 75 percent increase in Rabi supplies to the Sind, and it will permit far more efficient and productive power generation operations at Mangla and Tarbela Dams.
Timing of the construction of the Indus Plains Reservoir and related works for future development is uncertain. From the standpoint of the regional irrigation requirements for the Northern Indus Plains, these works may not be required until about 1990, or later if the antecedent development is delayed or suppressed appreciably. However, other pressures, such as the requirements of the Sind for Rabi supplies, may force earlier considerations of these works, perhaps on a staged basis.







PART IV
DEVELOPMENT PLAN
CRITERIA FOR DEVELOPMENT
Briefly stated, the objective of the first stage of development is to achieve the
highest possible level of agricultural production with maximum development of ground-water resources, and optimum use of existing surface-water diversion and distribution facilities. It follows that the criteria for the Development Plan are largely controlled by quality of ground-water considerations, and by the capacities of the irrigation works. The appropriate design criteria which have been adopted for the Development Plan are as follow.
Quality of Ground-Water Considerations
Quality of Water Zones. Quality-of-water standards for irrigation supply in the Northern Indus Plains are described in Volume IlI, and related to regional occurrence of ground water in Part I. Considering the chemical character of the ground, water of the region and the contemplated future water management practices and conditions of use, the restrictions on development and use of ground water are defined by a single parameter the mineral concentration, or salinity, of the water expressed as parts-per-million (ppm) of total dissolved solids. According to the standards which have been adopted, ground water is classified as follows:
Salinity
(ppm) Classification Restrictions on Use
Less than 1 ,500 Nonsal ine None.
1,500 to 4,000 Intermediate May be used in conjunction with
canal supplies under prescribed
management practices which
insure supplemental leaching
commensurate with the salinity of
the applied water.
4,000 and higher Saline Unsuitable for development as an
economic supply under present
conditions of water management




Reclamation Areas. Because the irrigated lands of the Intermediate and Saline
Zones must be served with canal supplies, projected development of these areas is restricted to the culturable commanded area (CCA). However, for the Nonsaline Zones irrigation development is projected for the entire culturable area (CA) lying within the irrigation boundaries. For convenience of reference, the term "reclamation area"' (RA) is used herein to define the total area, including the CCA of the Saline and Intermediate Zones, and the CA of the Nonsaline Zone, which is to be served under the Development Plan. The reclamation area of the Northern Indus Plains is 20.8 million acres, distributed among the canal commands as shown in Table 28.
Cropping Patterns and Cropping Intensities
The traditional (1 959-1961) average cropping intensity of about 85 percent and
Kharif-Rabi ratio of about 1I:1.4 (Table 18) undoubtedly represent the most advantageous possible integration of all crop production factors with the present water supplies under existing conditions of agricultural know-how, incentives and obtainable inputs.
Future availability of dependable, timely, and adequate irrigation supplies throughout the year will promote major changes in both cropping patterns and cropping intensity and will make investments in agricultural inputs more profitable; as a result a more intensive, well-balanced and productive agriculture will evolve in the region.
The immediate effects of the increased irrigation supplies, particularly in the Nonsaline and Intermediate Zones, will be to facilitate the reclamation of salt-affected soils, to bring previously unirrigated land into production, to increase the cropping intensity, and to change Kharif-Rabi ratios. This will be accompanied by significant increases in the depth of water being applied to most irrigated crops and in the number of plants per unit area. The net effect will be a large increase in yields and in total production.
As crop acreages, cropping intensities, and plant populations increase owing to
augmented irrigation supplies, significant changes will occur in cropping patterns. These changes will be related primarily to the increase in available water supplies, particularly in Kharif; but also to the quality of irrigation water, local crop needs and preferences, the impact of new high-yielding crop varieties such as Mexi-Pak wheat and short stem rice, texture, and related soil properties, desire for more cash crops (which are produced mainly in Kharif), distance from markets, incentives fostered by governmental policies, rate of mechanization, and other factors.
Analysis of feasible alternative cropping patterns at both moderate and high intensites as how tht, t ay iven annual intensity considerable change can be made in




Table 28
RECLAMATION AREAS
(All values in thousands of acres)
CA CCA CCA RA
Canal Command GA Nonsalirne Intermed- Saline Cols. (3)
Zone jate Zone Zone + (4) + (5)
(1) (2) (3) (4) (55 (6)
Thai 2,325.1I 1,479.1I 227.6 260.2 1 ,966.9
Paharpur 108.6 66.0 22.8 16.6 105.4
Muza ffargarh 800.6 567.8 128.5 28.6 724.9
D. G. Khan 785.2 454.0 153.8 111.9 712A.7
Upper ihelum (internal) 697.1 647.3 0 0 647.3
Lower ihelum 1,737.2 990.0 285.0 284.9 1,559.9
M-R Link (internal) 176.8 161.6 0 0 161.6
Upper Chenab (?ntemnal) 1,414.5 1,210.3 0 0 1,210.3
B.R.B.D. (internal) 450.0 427.4 0 0 427.4
Central Bari Doab 881.6 478.6 212.0 45.0 735.6
Upper Dipal pur 352.1 307.8 22.6 0 330.4
Lower Chenab 2, 116.1 1,342.0 320.5 142.5 1,805.0
Lower Chenab Feeder 1,678.6 793.1 260.1 257.5 1,310.7
Lower Bar; Doab 1,901.4 1,277.1 213.7 61.1 1,551.9
Lower Di pal pur 758.0 560.2 138.6 0 698.8
Upper Pakpattan 1,148.6 1,010.9 42.6 10.6 1,064.1
Eastern Sadiqia 1,135.7 9.5 (a) 933.0 942.5
Fordwah 470.8 319.1 (a) 111.0 430.1
Rangpur 372.2 340.0 17.4 0 357.4
Have!! (internal) 163.2 81.7 23.3 52.8 157.8
Sidhnai 884.6 685.1 103.6 7.9 796.6
Lower Pakpattan 388.3 163.8 72.8 99.3 335.9
Malls! 758.4 450.5 84.5 142.9 677.9
Bahawal 725.6 170.9 (a) 406.0 576.9
Abbasla 130.7 41.5 (a) 67.7 109.2
Pan jnad 1,546.5 779.8 (a) 574.0 1,353.8
Totals: 23,907.5 14,815.1 2,329.4 3,513.5 20,758.0




For planning purposes the Northern Indus Plains region was divided into four major agricultural zones (Figure 16). Climate is the primary basis for the divisions, but status of development, natural resources, distance from market, and sociological factors also were considered. Four appropriate cropping patterns, which incorporate moderately high annual cropping intensities, are proposed for both the Nonsaline and the Intermediate groundwater Zones, and four cropping patterns at a lower intensity for the Saline ground-water Zone (Table 29). In addition, the composite cropping pattern proposed for the Project 4 area is shown separately under Zone I because this area features an inordinately high percentage of rice. The acreages under each cropping pattern in each quality-of-water zone are given in Table 30.
For the purpose of achieving maximum cropping intensities and crop production,
the following general criteria were used in the development of the cropping patterns listed in Table 29:
1. The irrigable land will be cropped to maximum practical intensities. Where
there are no restrictions on the availability of water supplies, the average
cropping intensity is taken to be 150 percent for planning purposes. However,
150 percent is not a limiting intensity in the Punjab. On the contrary, as
judged from experience in Taiwan, Japan, and the United Arab Republic, the limiting cropping intensity for the Pun jab is no less than 200 percent, and with
mechanization it could be higher.
2. Availability of irrigation supplies will not limit the target intensities except in
some of the Saline Zones.
(a) In the Nonsaline Zones available canal supplies supplemented by tubewell
water will provide irrigation water sufficient for a cropping intensity of
150 percent or more.
(b) In the Intermediate Zones the maximum amount of water that can feasibly
be transported in the existing canals and distributaries will be supplemented
with sufficient slightly or moderately saline ground water to provide for a
cropping intensity of 150 percent, and to provide for the extra leaching
necessary to prevent harmful increases in soil salinity.
(c) In the Saline Zones the maximum feasible amount of water that can be
transported in the existing canals and distributaries will be delivered. This will provide sufficient water for optimum irrigation plus the required leaching for cropping intensities ranging from about 80 to 150 percent for the
various canal commands, depending upon the capacity of the channels
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