• TABLE OF CONTENTS
HIDE
 Title Page
 Letter of transmittal
 Portion of the watershed of the...
 Preface
 Map of Indus Plains
 Table of Contents
 List of Tables
 List of Figures
 Introduction
 Part I: Resources and Developm...
 Part II: Agriculture
 Part III: Development concepts
 Part IV: Development plan
 Part V: Evaluation
 Part VI: Future development
 Glossary and abbreviations






Group Title: Northern Indus Plains, regional plan: development and use of the water resources of the Indus Basin
Title: Northern Indus Plains, regional plan
ALL VOLUMES CITATION PAGE IMAGE ZOOMABLE PAGE TEXT
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Permanent Link: http://ufdc.ufl.edu/UF00055237/00001
 Material Information
Title: Northern Indus Plains, regional plan development and use of the water resources of the Indus Basin
Alternate Title: Development and use of the water resources of the Indus Basin
Physical Description: v. : ill. (some col., some folded), col. maps ; 29 cm.
Language: English
Creator: West Pakistan Water and Power Development Authority
Tipton and Kalmbach
Publisher: The Authority
Tipton and Kalmbach
Place of Publication: Lahore
Denver
Publication Date: 1967-
 Subjects
Subject: Water resources development -- West Pakistan -- Indus Basin   ( lcsh )
Genre: non-fiction   ( marcgt )
Spatial Coverage: Pakistan
 Notes
Statement of Responsibility: West Pakistan Water and Power Development Authority ; Tipton and Kalmbach, Inc.
Funding: Electronic resources created as part of a prototype UF Institutional Repository and Faculty Papers project by the University of Florida.
 Record Information
Bibliographic ID: UF00055237
Volume ID: VID00001
Source Institution: University of Florida
Holding Location: University of Florida
Rights Management: All rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier: oclc - 05953802

Table of Contents
    Title Page
        Title Page
    Letter of transmittal
        Page i
        Page ii
    Portion of the watershed of the Indus River from an altitude of 130 miles
        Unnumbered ( 4 )
    Preface
        Page iii
        Page iv
    Map of Indus Plains
        Figure 1
    Table of Contents
        Page v
        Page vi
        Page vii
    List of Tables
        Page viii
        Page ix
        Page x
    List of Figures
        Page xi
        Page xii
    Introduction
        Page 1
        Scope of development plan
            Page 1
            Page 2
            Figure 2
            Figure 3
            Figure 4
        Objectives
            Page 3
            Page 4
            Page 5
            Page 6
    Part I: Resources and Development
        Page 7
        Climate
            Page 7
        Water
            Page 8
            Surface water
                Page 8
                Basin runoff
                    Page 8
                Quality of surface water
                    Page 8
                    Figure 5
                    Figure 6
                    Figure 7
                    Figure 8
                    Page 9
                    Page 10
                    Page 11
                Utilization of surface water
                    Page 12
                    Page 13
                    Page 14
                    Page 15
                    Page 16
                    Figure 9
                    Page 17
            Ground water
                Page 18
                The alluvial aquifer
                    Page 18
                Occurrence of ground water
                    Page 18
                    Page 19
                Quality of ground water
                    Page 20
                    Figure 10
                    Figure 11
                Quality of ground water in relation to use as irrigation supply
                    Page 21
                    Page 22
                Development of ground water
                    Page 23
                    Page 24
                    Figure 12
        Land
            Page 25
            Land and land forms
                Page 25
                Page 26
                Page 27
            Soils and soil characteristics
                Page 28
            Soil classification
                Page 29
            Land development
                Page 30
            Salinity and alkali
                Page 30
                Page 31
        Human resources
            Page 32
            Page 33
        Infrastructure
            Page 34
            Figure 13
            Figure 14
            Page 35
            Page 36
    Part II: Agriculture
        Page 37
        Land holdings and tenure
            Page 37
            Cropping patterns and intensities
                Page 38
                Figure 15
                Figure 16
                Page 39
                Page 40
                Figure 17
            Irrigation supplies and other inputs
                Page 41
            Yields and productions
                Page 42
                Figure 18
                Page 43
                Page 44
                Page 45
        Crisis of development and demand
            Page 46
            Figure 19
            Figure 20
            Page 47
        Potential yields and productivity
            Page 48
            Page 49
            Page 50
            Attainable yields and production
                Page 51
                Page 52
                Page 53
                Figure 21
    Part III: Development concepts
        Page 55
        Basic concepts
            Page 55
        Public works and the role of private development
            Page 55
            Page 56
        Corollary public works
            Page 57
            Page 58
        Conjunctive use of ground and surface water supplies
            Page 59
        Exploitation of marginal water resources
            Page 59
        Development strategy
            Page 60
            Page 61
            Page 62
    Part IV: Development plan
        Page 63
        Criteria for development
            Page 63
            Quality of ground water considerations
                Page 63
                Quality of water zones
                    Page 63
                Reclamation areas
                    Page 64
            Cropping pattern and cropping intensities
                Page 64
                Page 65
                Page 66
                Page 67
                Page 68
                Page 69
            Irrigation water requirements
                Page 70
                Figure 22
                Figure 23
                Figure 24
            Surface water supply and distribution
                Page 71
                Page 72
                Page 73
                Distributary operations
                    Page 74
                Main-line canal and branch operations
                    Page 75
                Canal remodeling
                    Page 75
                    Page 76
                    Page 77
                Outlet remodeling
                    Page 78
                    Figure 25
                System gains and losses and ground-water recharge
                    Page 79
                    Page 80
                    Page 81
            Ground water development
                Page 82
                Nonsaline zones
                    Page 82
                Intermediate zones
                    Page 83
                Tubewell water allowances
                    Page 83
                    Page 84
            Supplemental drainage
                Page 85
            Implementation
                Page 86
                Project areas
                    Page 86
                Rate of development
                    Page 86
                    Page 87
                Project priorities
                    Page 88
                    Page 89
        Development plan for supply and distribution of irrigation water
            Page 90
            Canal headworks requirements
                Page 90
                Page 91
                Page 92
                Figure 26
                Page 93
                Page 94
                Page 95
                Page 96
                Page 97
                Page 98
                Page 99
            Operational rules for storage and distribution of irrigation supplies
                Page 100
                Figure 27
                Page 101
                Page 102
                Figure 28
                Figure 29
            Distribution of supplies in median year
                Page 103
                Canal command operations
                    Page 103
                Reservoir and link canal operations
                    Page 103
                    Page 104
                    Page 105
            Distribution of supplies in a critical year
                Page 106
                Canal command operations
                    Page 106
                Reservoir and link canal operations
                    Page 106
        Interim development and distribution of irrigation supplies
            Page 106
            Page 107
            Page 108
            Page 109
            Page 110
            Page 111
            Page 112
            Page 113
            Page 114
            Page 115
        Agricultural development
            Page 116
            Growth of intensities
                Page 116
                Figure 30
                Page 117
                Page 118
            Growth of agricultural production
                Page 119
                Page 120
        Corollary development
            Page 121
            Page 122
            Page 123
        Project works
            Page 124
            Page 125
            Irrigation tubewells
                Page 126
            Drainage tubewells
                Page 126
            Canal and outlet remodeling
                Page 127
            Drains
                Page 128
            Electrification
                Page 128
                Page 129
                Page 130
                Page 131
            Construction schedule
                Page 132
                Figure 31
                Figure 32
        Implication of development
            Page 133
            Hydrologic balance
                Page 133
                Salt balance
                    Page 134
                    Figure 33
            Irrigation supply versus demand
                Page 135
                Page 136
                Page 137
                Page 138
    Part V: Evaluation
        Page 139
        Project costs
            Page 140
            Capital costs
                Page 140
                Page 141
                Page 142
                Page 143
            Annual costs
                Page 144
                Figure 34
                Page 145
                Page 146
                Page 147
        Benefits
            Page 148
            Primary benefits
                Page 148
                Figure 35
                Page 149
                Page 150
            Secondary benefits
                Page 151
                Page 152
                Figure 36
                Page 153
                Page 154
    Part VI: Future development
        Page 155
        Requirements and timing of future development
            Page 155
            Page 156
            Figure 37
        Water supplies and diversion works
            Page 157
            Dam and reservoirs
                Page 158
                Figure 38
                Page 159
            New link system
                Page 160
                Figure 39
                Figure 40
        Operations
            Page 161
        Scheduling of other works
            Page 162
    Glossary and abbreviations
        Page 163
        Page 164
        Page 165
        Page 166
        Page 167
        Page 168
        Page 169
        Page 170
        Page 171
        Page 172
Full Text




REGIONAL PLAN






NORTHERN

INDUS

PLAINS




DEVELOPMENT AND USE
OF THE
WATER RESOURCES OF THE INDUS BASIN


VOLUME I -REPORT





WEST PAKISTAN WATER AND POWER DEVELOPMENT AUTHORITY
TIPTON AND KALMBACH, INC. ENGINEERS


1967









TIPTON AND KALMBACH, INC.
300 INSURANCE BUILDING
831-14TH STREET
DENVER, COLORADO 80202
OLIN KALMBACH, PRESIDENT
J. E. KNUE, JR.,VICE PRES. PHONE (303) 244-2944 CABLES:
C. W. MEHRING, VICE PRES.
A.J. DEUTSCH, TREASURER ART DENVER
F. L. KIROIS, SECRETARY TIPAK LAHORE
R.J. TIPTON, CHAIRMAN OF THE BOARD July 1, 1967











Mr. A. G. N. Kazi, S.K.
Chairman, Water and Power Development Authority
Lahore, West Pakistan

Dear Mr. Kazi:

Transmitted herewith is our recommended Development Plan for the
Northern Indus Plains region of West Pakistan. The Plan reflects the program
objectives and development guidelines which have been established by WAPDA
and Government. It calls for accelerated development of the ground-water
resources of the region through the construction of more than 28,000 large
capacity tubewells by 1980. With integrated development and distribution
of ground water and surface water, the latter augmented by the storage and
diversion works of the Indus Basin Project, drainage hazards to the irrigated
lands will be eliminated, irrigation water supplies to the region will be in-
creased more than two-fold, and the agricultural economy will exhibit the
growth and productivity which are associated with modern irrigated agriculture.

Development after 1980 is described in the context of the kinds of
physical works which ultimately will be required to sustain the economy and
to achieve full development of the surface-water resources of the Indus Basin.
The key feature of future development is the Indus Plains Reservoir, which
will provide 20 million acre feet of off-channel storage in upper Thai Doab
to capture and regulate for beneficial use most of the remaining surplus flow
of the Indus River.









Mr. A. G. N. Kazi, S.K.
July 1, 1967
Page Two


A report of this kind necessarily is replete with statistical data,
economic projections and various analyses and water studies which can only
be described numerically. These are required to show the scale of things
and to demonstrate the workings of concepts. Of much more importance
than the numerical values themselves are the development concepts to which
they pertain. Whereas the various economic projections may be subject to
frequent revision during the period of the Plan, the development concepts
will, in our opinion, remain valid for any conceivable combination of
circumstances which may arise in the future.

We wish to acknowledge the assistance of the staff of the Ground
Water and Reclamation Division who participated in the preparation of
this report; and the cooperation of the Water and Soil Investigations
Division in the collection and compilation of much of the basic data.
Notwithstanding the vital contributions of the WAPDA staff, we take sole
responsibility for the views and recommendations given herein.

Respectfully submitted,


TIPTON

























































































































PORTION OF THE WATERSHED OF THE INDUS RIVER FROM AN ALTITUDE OF 130 MILES

(Courtesy of National Aeronautics and Space Administration)


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PREFACE


Civilization in the Indus Plains extends back more than 4,000 years, embracing people of more
diverse origins and cultures than are found in the history of any of the other classical riverine en-
vironments of the World. The common denominator that linked the many peoples who occupied
the region always has been their preoccupation with bringing water to the land. In that sense, the
history of civilization in the Indus Plains parallels the history of irrigation, and without exception,
the storied periods of the region correspond to the periods of greatest progress in the development
of water resources.

Recent experience in the Northern Indus Plains typifies a sequence of events, not uncommon in
the history of resource development, wherein efforts to solve a particular problem have led to de-
velopment of a resource of singular importance to the economy. In West Pakistan the problem is
drainage of irrigated lands the primary resource is ground water. Recognition of the potentialities
of the ground-water resource of West Pakistan gradually evolved from the efforts of a few dedi-
cated individuals who devoted their careers to the preservation of the irrigated agriculture estab-
lished on such a grand scale in the Indus Plains.

A brief eight years ago, when the responsibility of implementing the land reclamation program
was transferred from the Irrigation Department to WAPDA, primary emphasis was placed on the
abatement and control of waterlogging and salinity by providing drainage to rehabilitate and pre-
serve the agricultural lands. Vertical drainage employing tubewells was adopted as the means, and
although there was recognition of the value of the supplemental irrigation supplies developed
thereby, the prevailing concept was one of preservation of the existing agriculture. Almost unknow-
ingly, but directly as a result of the rapidly changing balance between food supply and demand,
the concept changed from a program designed to protect existing values to recognition that devel-
opment of the ground water would yield benefits far beyond anything heretofore contemplated.
Although adequate drainage remains the indispensable first requisite to further development, the
supplemental irrigation supplies produced in the drainage process make it possible to set produc-
tion goals which were impracticable under canal development alone.

As in the case of most resource development programs, periods of intense activity were inter-
spersed with moratoriums on progress while the doubts of many concerning both the technical and
the economic feasibility of ground-water development were considered and weighed, and problems
that were not foreseen arose. Although the delays were exasperating to the proponents of ground-
water development, it must be conceded that criticism and debate are essential to all new de-
velopment, and, indeed, lend strength to the program by assuring that it goes forward on a sound
basis. A case in point is the excellent work of the so-called "Revelle Committee" which culminated
in an exhaustive report which endorsed the concepts that had been implemented by WAPDA and
confirmed the technical and economic feasibility of ground-water development. Nevertheless, ques-
tions remain in some quarters. The issues of vertical versus horizontal drainage, standards for qual-
ity of irrigation water, the life of tubewells, ground-water balance, salt balance, and public versus
private development of ground water have been, and undoubtedly will continue to be, debated.

These, however, are subsidiary points; the central concept of development of ground water in
the Indus Basin both for preservation of lands by drainage and maximizing development by providing
supplemental water supplies is firmly established and accepted government policy. It is fully ex-
pected that by the end of this century, many of the controversies concerning ground-water devel-
opment will have assumed the same historical interest as similar controversies that arose when the
canal works which presently irrigate the arable lands of the Indus Valley were initially undertaken.










The plan for development of the Northern Indus Plains described in this Report places great em-
phasis on accelerated development of ground-water supplies, proposing what may appear to many
as an optimistic, if not improbable, rate of construction of new works. This is purposeful. It is always
sound planning policy to set optimistic objectives as technology never is static and the limits of the
attainable have a way of retreating with time. In the construction carried out on the Indus Basin
Project the original targets, which few believed could be met, have been surpassed. The rate at
which tubewells are currently being constructed is further evidence that the pace of development
proposed herein can be achieved. In any event, goals must reflect needs, and it is clear from any ap-
praisal of the present status of agriculture against the future demands of the economy that a mas-
sive and sustained effort is required in West Pakistan to assure the fullest possible development of
all resources oriented toward agricultural production.

Modern Pakistan is committed to a new approach to the ancient problem of equating the water
and land resources of the Indus Plains. The prospects are promising because the incorporation of
ground-water management into the development technology results in a 100 percent increase in
irrigation water supplies, and elimination of waterlogging and salinity hazards. And the opportuni-
ties are greater than ever before because, with the amelioration of water supply and drainage prob-
lems, the stage will be set for a revolution in agriculture and consequent economic benefits which
will dwarf the returns from traditional agriculture.




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CONTENTS


Page


INTRODUCTION


SCOPE OF DEVELOPMENT PLAN ............ .
OBJECTIVES . . . . . .....




PART I

RESOURCES AND DEVELOPMENT


CLIMATE . ........ ... .....
WATER ......................
Surface Water ................
Basin Runoff .............
Quality of Surface Water ......
Utilization of Surface Water . .
Ground Water ................
The Alluvial Aquifer.... ... ..
Occurrence of Ground Water . .
Quality of Ground Water .......
Quality of Ground Water in Relation to
Development of Ground Water. .
LAND .......................
Land and Land Forms . ...... .
Soils and Soil Characteristics . .
Soil Classification . ....
Land Development ........... .
Salinity and Alkali ..............
HUMAN RESOURCES .................
INFRASTRUCTURE ................


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.......
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PART II
AGRICULTURE


PRESENT SITUATION. . . .
Land Holdings and Tenure . .
Cropping Patterns and Intensities. .
Irrigation Supplies and Other Inputs .
Yields and Production . .
CRISIS OF DEVELOPMENT AND DEMAND
POTENTIAL YIELDS AND PRODUCTIVITY.
Attainable Yields and Production .


*....... .


. . . . . .
... 0 . . . .










CONTENTS (continued)



PART III
DEVELOPMENT CONCEPTS

BASIC CONCEPTS ..................... . ....
PUBLIC WORKS AND THE ROLE OF PRIVATE DEVELOPMENT ...... ....
COROLLARY PUBLIC WORKS ..... ......... .... .........
CONJUNCTIVE USE OF GROUND AND SURFACE WATER SUPPLIES . .
EXPLOITATION OF MARGINAL WATER RESOURCES . . ....
DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY ............. . . ......


PART IV
DEVELOPMENT PLAN


CRITERIA FOR DEVELOPMENT. .. . .. ....
Quality of Ground Water Considerations . ....
Quality of Water Zones ... ..... ..
Reclamation Areas . . .......
Cropping Patterns and Cropping Intensities . .
Irrigation Water Requirements . . .....
Surface-Water Supply and Distribution . ..
Distributary Operations . . ...
Main-Line Canal and Branch Operations . .
Canal Remodeling . ..........
^ I D J it


'uT ei t ie u e y . . .. .
System Gains and Losses and Ground-Water Recharge.
Ground-Water Development. . . . .
Nonsaline Zones . . .
Intermediate Zones ..................
Tubewell Water Allowances . . .
Supplemental Drainage . . . ..
Implementation ...... .... . ......
Project Areas .. .. ..............
Rate of Development . . . .
Project Priorities . ...... .. .
DEVELOPMENT PLAN FOR SUPPLY AND DISTRIBUTION OF
IRRIGATION WATER ......................
Canal Headworks Requirements . . ...


Operations Rules for Storage and Distribution of Irrigation Supplies .
Distribution of Supplies in a Median Year . ... ..
Canal Command Operations . . . ..
Reservoir and Link Canal Operations . . .


Page


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CONTENTS (continued)


Page


Distribution of Supplies in a Critical Year . . ...
Canal Command Operations . . .
Reservoir and Link Canal Operations . ...
INTERIM DEVELOPMENT AND DISTRIBUTION OF IRRIGATION SUPPLIES
AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT. . . . .. .
Growth of Intensities........... . .
Growth of Agricultural Production . .. ..
COROLLARY DEVELOPMENT .......................
PROJECT WORKS .............................
Irrigation Tubewells .. .... ... ......
Drainage Tubewells ..... . . .
Canal and Outlet Remodeling . ....... ......
Drains . .. .. . . ..............
Electrification ......... ..................
Construction Schedule .................
IMPLICATIONS OF DEVELOPMENT . . . . ...
Hydrologic Balance ..... . . . .
Salt Balance..... . . . .
Irrigation Supply Versus Demand . . . . .


PART V
EVALUATION


PROJECT COSTS. . . ..
Capital Costs . . .
Annual Costs ..... ....
BENEFITS . . . .
Primary Benefits . . .
Secondary Benefits . . .


PART VI
FUTURE DEVELOPMENT


REQUIREMENTS AND TIMING OF FUTURE DEVELOPMENT
WATER SUPPLIES AND DIVERSION WORKS . .. .
Dam and Reservoir . . . ...
New Link System ...................
OPERATIONS .. . ..................
SCHEDULING OF OTHER WORKS . . . .


106
106
106
106
116
116
119
121
124
126
126
127
128
128
132
133
133
134
135


155
157
158
160
161
162



,r
r

r.r










LIST OF TABLES


Table
No. Title Page

1 Annual Runoff of Western Rivers for the Period 1922-1963 . 9
2 Indus River at Attock . ............ ... 10
3 Jhelum River at Mangla .......... ..... ...... 10
4 Chenab River at Marala .................... 11
5 Western Rivers at Rim Stations . . ... 11
6 Pre-lndus Basin Projects (IBP): Surface-Water Diversion and
Distribution Works. ....... . ............ 13
7 Historic Deliveries at Canal Headworks (1947-1960) . . 14
8 Post-Indus Basin Projects (IBP): Surface-Water Diversion and
Distribution Works . . .... ........... 15
9 Implications of Storage in Year of Median Monthly Runoff . 12
10 Median Year Surface-Water Supplies Available for Development
in the Northern Indus Plains. . . . . 17
11 Summary of Land Areas . ................... 22
12 Summary Data for On-Going Projects . . . 24
13 Projections of Private Tubewell Development . . . 26
14 Areas Served by On-Going SCARP Projects and Private
Development. . . ....... ........ 27
15 Summary of WASID Soil Surveys . . . . 31
16 Summary of WASID Land Classification Surveys . . ... 33
17 1960 Cropping Patterns. ... ........... ...... 39
18 Estimated 1960 and 1965 Irrigation Water Requirements,
Supplies, and Shortages ..... ................... 40
19 Base Status of Agriculture 1959-1961 . . . 43
20 Index of Production and Productivity (1949-1950= 100) . 44
21 1950-1960 Changes in Crop Yields for Various Geographical
Regions . . .................. 45
22 Projected Crop and Food Production in the Northern Indus Plains
Without Additional Reclamation Projects . . . 47
23 Record Yields Obtained by Punjabi Farmers . . 49
24 Outstanding Farm Yields Obtained in California, U.S.A. . 50
25 Recent Yields from California Experiment Stations . . 50
26 Future Potential Crop Yields Northern Indus Plains . .. 51
27 Projected Crop Yields in the Northern Indus Plains . . 53
28 Reclamation Areas . . . . . . 65
29 Future Cropping Patterns . . . . . ...... 67
30 Future Cropped Acres by Agricultural Zones . . . 68
31 Distribution of Water Below the Heads of Water Courses . 72
32 Water Requirements for Development Plan . . 73
33 Proposed Operating Schedules for Distributaries . . 76
34 Proposed Pattern of Deliveries at Canal Headworks. . . 77


viii









Table
No. Title Page

35 Canal Remodeling Ratios ....................... 78
36 Reservoir Evaporation Losses ... . . .. 79
37 Headworks Pond Losses ............... ....... 79
38 River Gain and Loss Coefficients. . . ... 80
39 Link Losses .... ....................... 81
40 Canal and Branch Losses ........ .. ... 82
41 Tubewell Water Allowances ... . .. . 84
42 Supplemental Drainage Requirements. . . . 85
43 Future Project Priorities and Related Data . . . 91
44 Summary of Areas and Water Supply Facilities for Proposed
Development Plan.. .................... 92
45 Schedule of Normal Surface-Water Deliveries at Canal Headworks 94
46 Schedule of Normal Deliveries Less Historic Mean Deliveries
at Canal Headworks. . ....... .... 95
47 Schedule of Minimum Canal Deliveries to Canal Headworks . 96
48 Schedule of Maximum Canal Deliveries to Canal Headworks. . 97
49 Schedule of Maximum Deliveries Less Normal Deliveries at
Canal Headworks .......................... 98
50 Schedule of Normal Deliveries Less Minimum Deliveries at Canal
Headworks . . . ..... ..... 99
51 Operating Criteria for Mangla Reservoir . . . 102
52 Operating Criteria for Tarbela Reservoir . . .. 102
53 Median Year Irrigation Supplies . . . . 104
54 Reservoir Releases and Schedule of Diversions to Heads of Link
Canals for Median Year . . . ...... 105
55 Critical Year (1940-1941) Irrigation Supplies . . . 107
56 Reservoir Releases and Schedule of Diversions to Heads of Link
Canals for Critical Year 1940-1941 . . .. 108
57 Water Supply Study for 1965 Median Year Conditions . . 111
58 Water Supply Study for 1970 Median Year Conditions . .. 112
59 Water Supply Study for 1975 Median Year Conditions . . 113
60 Water Supply Study for 1980 Median Year Conditions . 114
61 Water Supply Study for 1985 Median Year Conditions . . 115
62 Growth of Cropped Acreage and Intensity . . . .. 118
63 Production of Important Crops With Proposed Reclamation Program 120
64 Projected Regional Crop and Food Production and Demand. . 121
65 Fertilizer Requirements . ............ ....... 123
66 Irrigation Tubewells . . . .. . .. 125
67 Drainage Tubewells........ . . .. ... 126
68 Canal Remodeling Data .................... 127
69 Drainage Works . ................... 128
70 Summary of Tubewell Power Requirements . . . 129
71 Estimated Power Load and Energy Consumption at Generation
Points.............. . .......... 130









Table
No. Title Page

72 Proposed Power Facilities ....... ................ 132
73 Water Requirements for 150 Percent Cropping Intensity for
Entire Reclamation Area ........ . 137
74 Summary of Capital Costs ........ ............ 140
75 Summary of Categories of Cost . . . . 141
76 Capital Expenditures by Five-Year Plan Periods . ... 143
77 Annual Cost of Project Works and Cost of Water . . 147
78 Net Primary Project Benefits . . . . 148
79 Net Value of Production ...... ............... 149
80 Estimated per Capita Rural Income . . . .. 149
81 Food Production Versus Demand Northern Indus Plains . 151
82 Program Benefits .. ....... .... ... . .... 153
83 Range of Demand for Irrigation Supplies on Indus River below
Kalabagh . . . . . . ... 157
84 Divertable Supplies from the Indus River below Chasma . ... 158
85 Areas Commanded by New Link System . . . 160













Figure
No.


Indus Plains......


LIST OF FIGURES



Title


Regional Subareas ................
Political Divisions ...............
Status of Development . . . .
Temperature ...................
Effective Precipitation . . . .
Irrigation Water Requirement Index . .
Present Seasonal Distribution of Canal Supplies
Source of Canal Supplies Post IBP . .
Depth to Water Table ..............
Quality of Ground Water . . .
Private Tubewell Development (1965) . .
Population ...................
Transportation ..................
1960 Seasonal Distribution of Crops . .
Agricultural Zones ...............
1960 Cropping Intensity . . . .
Consumption of Fertilizers in Selected Countries
Average Crop Yields in Selected Countries .
Northern Indus Plains Food Supply and Demand -
Without Continuing Reclamation Program .
Comparative Yields of Crops . . .
Future Seasonal Distribution of Irrigated Crops
Land Use by Crops After Full Development .


Cropping Patterns and Growing Periods by Agricultural
Future Seasonal Distribution of Canal Supplies .
Project Areas and Sequence of Development ..


Following
Page


. . . . . . iv


.......
.......
. .
.......




1960-2000


r




Zones .
. .


Source of Surface Water to Canal Commands after Completion
of IBP Works...........................
Operating Criteria for Mangla Reservoir . . . .
Operating Criteria for Tarbela Reservoir . . . .
Growth of Irrigation Water Supplies and Requirements . .
Electrification Facilities (66 kv and 132 kv systems) . .
Tubewell Construction Program . . . . .
Hydrologic Implications of Development . . . .
Capital Expenditures for Reclamation Works . . .
Net Benefits from Regional Plan 1960 to 2000 . . .
Northern Indus Plains Food Supply and Demand 1960 to 2000 .
Indus Plains Reservoir and Kalabagh-Jhelum-Chiniot-Burala Link .
Indus Plains Reservoir Location Map . . . .
Indus Plains Reservoir Preliminary Design of Works and
Structures . .......................


.........


.
,
r










Figure Following
No. Title Page

40 New Indus Links System Kalabagh-Jhelum-Chiniot-Burala -
Location Map and Profile ..................... 160


GLOSSARY AND ABBREVIATIONS. . .... . 162


APPENDICES

VOLUME II -ECONOMICS
VOLUME III WATER AND AGRICULTURE
VOLUME IV OPERATIONS STUDIES
VOLUME V TUBEWELLS
VOLUME VI CANAL REMODELING









INTRODUCTION


SCOPE OF DEVELOPMENT PLAN

Agriculture is the dominant economic activity of Pakistan. Statistics for recent
years show that about half of the Gross National Product and nearly 80 percent of export
earnings are directly produced by agriculture. Moreover, at least 60 percent of the value
added by other sectors of the economy is derived from agricultural activities. Thus, 80
percent or more of the Gross National Product is dependent upon agriculture. As more
than 80 percent of the population also is involved in agriculture, it follows that any changes
in the agricultural economy must have profound and immediate effects on all sectors of the
economy and population.

Agricultural development has been a primary objective of government policy since
independence and, within the sector, irrigation water supply and drainage have received
the highest priority in the allocation of development funds and other resources. A number
of government agencies are involved in various aspects of the problems of water supply and
drainage, but the major activities are concentrated in the Salinity Control and Reclamation
Projects (SCARP) which are administered by the West Pakistan Water and Power Develop-
ment Authority (WAPDA).

The SCARP program is the outgrowth of decades of investigations, research, and
field experimental activities which were undertaken largely by the Irrigation Department.
Between 1958 and 1960 WAPDA assumed responsibility for most of the functions of investi-
gations, planning, and construction of development and reclamation projects. Under
WAPDA's program the Indus Plains were divided into Northern and Southern regions. The
boundary between the regions is at Gudu Barrage, the narrowest reach of the Indus Plains
and historically the demarcation between the former provinces of Sind and Punjab (Figure 1).
The development plan described herein is concerned with the Northern Indus Plains region
which includes the following subareas: Right Bank Indus (D. I. Khan and D. G. Khan); the
interfluvial lands of Thai, Chaj, Rechna, and Bari Doabs; and the Bahawalpur Plain between
the Sutlej River and the Thar Desert (Figure 2). The region comprises all or part of twenty-
two administrative districts (Figure 3).

The first project under the regional reclamation program SCARP 1 in Central
Rechna Doab was activated in 1960. This was followed by SCARP 2 in Chaj Doab in 1962,
SCARP 3 in Lower Thai Doab in 1965, and SCARP 4 in Upper Rechna Doab in 1966. Project
plans for SCARP 5 in Lower Rechna Doab were completed in 1966, and planning for SCARP
6 which will include the Panjnad-Abbasia canal commands in the Lower Bahawalpur Plain
will be completed in 1967. The present status of project planning and implementation is
shown in Figure 4.









INTRODUCTION


SCOPE OF DEVELOPMENT PLAN

Agriculture is the dominant economic activity of Pakistan. Statistics for recent
years show that about half of the Gross National Product and nearly 80 percent of export
earnings are directly produced by agriculture. Moreover, at least 60 percent of the value
added by other sectors of the economy is derived from agricultural activities. Thus, 80
percent or more of the Gross National Product is dependent upon agriculture. As more
than 80 percent of the population also is involved in agriculture, it follows that any changes
in the agricultural economy must have profound and immediate effects on all sectors of the
economy and population.

Agricultural development has been a primary objective of government policy since
independence and, within the sector, irrigation water supply and drainage have received
the highest priority in the allocation of development funds and other resources. A number
of government agencies are involved in various aspects of the problems of water supply and
drainage, but the major activities are concentrated in the Salinity Control and Reclamation
Projects (SCARP) which are administered by the West Pakistan Water and Power Develop-
ment Authority (WAPDA).

The SCARP program is the outgrowth of decades of investigations, research, and
field experimental activities which were undertaken largely by the Irrigation Department.
Between 1958 and 1960 WAPDA assumed responsibility for most of the functions of investi-
gations, planning, and construction of development and reclamation projects. Under
WAPDA's program the Indus Plains were divided into Northern and Southern regions. The
boundary between the regions is at Gudu Barrage, the narrowest reach of the Indus Plains
and historically the demarcation between the former provinces of Sind and Punjab (Figure 1).
The development plan described herein is concerned with the Northern Indus Plains region
which includes the following subareas: Right Bank Indus (D. I. Khan and D. G. Khan); the
interfluvial lands of Thai, Chaj, Rechna, and Bari Doabs; and the Bahawalpur Plain between
the Sutlej River and the Thar Desert (Figure 2). The region comprises all or part of twenty-
two administrative districts (Figure 3).

The first project under the regional reclamation program SCARP 1 in Central
Rechna Doab was activated in 1960. This was followed by SCARP 2 in Chaj Doab in 1962,
SCARP 3 in Lower Thai Doab in 1965, and SCARP 4 in Upper Rechna Doab in 1966. Project
plans for SCARP 5 in Lower Rechna Doab were completed in 1966, and planning for SCARP
6 which will include the Panjnad-Abbasia canal commands in the Lower Bahawalpur Plain
will be completed in 1967. The present status of project planning and implementation is
shown in Figure 4.









The general terms of reference which have been applied to the regional planning
studies are as follow:

1. WAPDA's mandate in connection with agricultural development is limited to the
planning and construction of water supply and subsurface drainage works and
appurtenant power generation and distribution facilities. Broadly speaking,
surface drainage works also are included, but it is assumed that these require-
ments are adequately provided under various programs of the Irrigation Depart-
ment and other agencies. For this reason flood protection and storm drainage
works are considered only where they form an integral part of water development
or reclamation projects.

In any event, WAPDA has no authority for operation and maintenance of irriga-
tion works nor for providing any of the other supplies and services required for
modern agriculture such as selected seeds, fertilizers, plant protection, exten-
sion services, and the like. However, the regional plan considers in appropri-
ate detail the requirements, costs, and benefits of these and other essential
agricultural inputs.

2. A basic policy of this development program is to concentrate reclamation activ-
ities on lands within the existing irrigation boundaries. In a typical canal
system the irrigated acreage will be increased by about 10 percent as all cultur-
able land within the irrigation boundary, including lands which are not com-
manded by canals, will be served by tubewells.

This policy recognizes that the existing canal systems in general embrace the
best agricultural lands, that these lands have been leveled and otherwise devel-
oped for irrigation, and that they are populated with experienced cultivators and
agricultural artisans. Moreover, as most of the deteriorated soils within the
canal commands can be quickly and effectively reclaimed by simple, inexpen-
sive leaching techniques, there are no economic advantages in developing new
lands. Accordingly, as water, not land, is the limiting factor in agricultural
development in West Pakistan, maximum benefits will be derived by promoting
optimum development of the established irrigated areas.

3. The target level of development of land and water resources contemplated under
the SCARP program is that required to attain an average annual cropping inten-
sity of 150 percent on the culturable lands within the project areas. This is
about the optimum practical intensity that can be achieved by a reasonably
efficient cultivator with traditional land, water, and labor management prac-
tices. With this level of development and with prudent management, the aver-
age farm will represent an economic holding, rather than a subsistence holding
as under existing conditions.

It is recognized, of course, that cropping intensity is not a certain economic
index. However, the availability of full supplies for high cropping intensities
insures flexibility of crop management. Irrigators will have wide latitude in


















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WEST PAKISTAN WATER AGD POWER DEVELOPMENT AUTVOOITY
TIPTOR AND OALMGAO, INC /-ENINEERL


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LEGEND
International Boundory
Barrage or Heodworks
Principal Conals
Principal Cities ond Towns


Io a 1o eo o
SCALE OF MILES

NORTHERN INDIUS PLAINS

REGIONAL SUBAREAS


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SJLmpur r/ 0-Rr LEGEND

MULTAN District Boundary and a Name
STehsi Boundary an Noame
D.I "1.. K' M R I anp Wr A L o' tpur I "
-- International Boundary

b Borrayi or Nleadworks

SHIM Principal Conals
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LEGEND
Project Number and Name

Project Areas Completed

Project Areas under Construction

Projects for which Feasibility
Report Completed
Projects for which Feasibility
Report under Study
International Boundary

Barrage or Headworks

Principal Canals

Principal Cities and Towns


PANJNAD-
ABBASIA


o RTHRN INDUS PLAINS
N E LE IOF MILES


NORTHERN INDUS PLAINS


WEST PAKISTAN WATER AND POWER OEVEIFPMENT AUTHORITY
TIPTON AND KALMBACH, INC.-ENGINR1EE


STATUS OF DEVELOPMENT


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the selection of their cropping program, and with adequate and reliable supplies
for all culturable lands there will not be a tendency to spread water too thinly,
a practice that leads to salinization of the soil.

It should be emphasized that a cropping intensity of 150 percent does not repre-
sent the maximum level of development which can be realized in the Northern
Indus Plains. In fact, a large proportion of the advanced farmers who have
developed supplemental ground-water supplies in recent years have achieved
intensities of 175 percent or more. However, the attainment of a cropping
intensity significantly greater than 150 percent may involve major modifications
of cropping patterns and will require an increased labor supply or mechanization
of some activities changes which the typical farmer is unlikely to adopt in the
near future.

4. Pending adjudication of the surface water rights of the Indus Basin between the
Northern and Southern regions of the Indus Plains, development of surface-
water resources for the Northern Indus Plains will be governed by the letter and
spirit of the Sind-Punjab draft agreement of 1945. As interpreted herein, this
agreement requires firstly, a certain minimum schedule of deliveries to the
barrage heads in the Southern Indus Plains, and secondly, that the consequences
of development in the Northern Indus Plains must not depreciate significantly
the quality of surface supplies available to the Southern Indus Plains.


OBJECTIVES

The specific objective of regional development is to provide appropriate physical
facilities to promote the development of modern irrigation agriculture in the Northern
Indus Plains at a rate commensurate with the needs and the resources of Pakistan. Develop-
ment, rather than production quotas, is the goal of the program. This recognizes the fact
that wherever in the world modern irrigation is practiced successfully on a large scale, pro-
duction has far exceeded demand as well as planning targets, and the agriculture sector has
met its obligations to the total economy.

It should be emphasized that the ultimate objective of development is the creation
of a viable economy. In this context agricultural development is an intermediate goal,
but a vital one. Efficient, productive and flexible agriculture sectors, wherever they are
found in the world, are associated with expanding, productive, and complex economies.
Whereas subsistence and nonproductive agriculture sectors act as a drain on the total
economy, effectively inhibiting economic growth, productive, expanding agriculture acts
as a stimulus to development. Accordingly, exploitation of the water and land resources
of the Northern Indus Plains is expected to result in more than simple self-sufficiency in
food; it will also remove a basic barrier to development of a viable economy.

The development philosophy for the plan is based upon three central concepts which,
in turn, are drawn largely from the experience of successful irrigated agriculture in similar
areas, extrapolated to the environment of the Indus Plains.









1. The carefully planned and phased introduction of certain few but essential
ingredients into a traditional or subsistence irrigation economy inevitably will
trigger and sustain a revolution in agriculture. These essentials are water
supply and drainage, improved seeds and fertilizers. Given these ingredients
in the right proportions, and culturable land and efficient cultivators, the
agricultural economy will experience rapid change and growth; without them,
no appreciable change can occur.

Other kinds of activities such as government institutional programs agricultural
extension, credit and marketing services, communications, and the like are
useful, but they will not influence the growth of the agricultural economy in a
significant way in the early stages of development, and they will surface when
needed as the economy matures. The same applies to the gamut of value-adding
activities which outflow from development in the private sector. In short, the
so-called infrastructure inevitably follows rather than leads agriculture, and
the combination of political pressure and profit motives, which arise in a viable
agricultural economy, insure that the important elements of the infrastructure
will be available as the needs develop.

2. The evolution of modern irrigated agriculture in this kind of terrane invariably
involves several distinct stages of water resource development. Each stage, in
turn, commonly features temporary overdevelopment of water resources, particu-
larly of ground-water supplies where they are available. But the wealth
so created then funds other water supply works which would be prohibitively
costly in the early stages of development, but which are feasible in the advanced
stages if only to sustain the values that have been established. Finally, as the
economy becomes more diversified some of the water and land resources devoted
to agriculture commonly are converted to higher uses.

In the contrary situation land resources, rather than water, are overdeveloped.
Under those conditions agriculture cannot prosper, and the values needed to
justify and finance further development are never established. This has been
the history of irrigated agriculture in the Indus Plains.

The implications are clear. Firstly, it is, in all likelihood, not possible to plan
a truly ultimate development program, and even if it were, such a program
would always be prohibitively costly in relation to contemporary values.
Secondly, of all the factors implicit to agricultural development, water and
drainage are paramount. Indifferent soils that are properly drained can be
brought up to high levels of production through use of various amendments and
management practices, but there is no substitute for water, and no way of
counteracting a shortage of water.

3. Because of the key role that water plays in successful irrigation agriculture,
standards of water supply and quality must reflect the utility of the water under
existing and foreseeable conditions of use, rather than be based upon arbitrary









standards derived from dissimilar environments which commonly represent near-
optimum conditions in highly developed economies. This is especially important
during the early stages of development when other essential inputs are in short
supply. The indiscriminate use of quality-of-water standards derived from a
highly sophisticated agricultural economy can result only in rejection of useable
water supplies, and consequently land, which have great economic value
especially in the early stages of development.









PART I


RESOURCES AND DEVELOPMENT


The Northern Indus Plains region features a favorable climate for perennial
agriculture; abundant culturable lands which are highly developed for irrigation; a massive
system of surface-water storage, diversion and distribution works, rapidly expanding
ground-water development for irrigation, and large undeveloped resources of ground water
and surface water; the foundations of an adequate infrastructure; and a large rural popula-
tion with strong traditions in irrigated agriculture. This combination of resources describes
a highly favorable environment for rapid and intensive development of agriculture.
Considering the magnitude of all of the factors involved, the prospects for irrigation devel-
opment in the Northern Indus Plains probably are unique in world experience. There are
no obvious restraints to development other than the availability of funds to finance the
works required to mobilize the resources for development.


CLIMATE

The climate of the region is nearly ideal for irrigated agriculture. The Hindu Kush
and Himalaya Mountains form a barrier in the north that effectively protects the irrigated
plains from northern cold fronts and associated storm activities violent windstorms, hail,
and like phenomena. As daytime temperatures are warm to hot throughout the year and
killing frosts are virtually unknown, agriculture can be practiced on a year-around basis.
Precipitation is scanty but concentrated in the hot summer season when crop water require-
ments are highest.

The mean annual temperature ranges from 740F to 800F. Daily temperatures range
from about 600F to 1200F during the summer months, and from 350F to 750F during winter
(Figure 5). The median annual effective precipitation ranges from about 16 inches at
Sialkot in the north to 2 inches at Gudu in the south (Figure 6), and averages about 7
inches, two-thirds of which falls during the monsoon season, from July to September.

Owing to the relatively high temperatures and the low and uneven seasonal distri-
bution of rainfall, irrigation is necessary throughout the region to sustain profitable agri-
cultural production. As shown in Figure 7, irrigation requirements vary widely over the
region primarily as a result of the patterns of distribution of temperature and rainfall.
Annual irrigation requirements per unit area are approximately 35 percent higher in the
southern portion of the region than in the north.









PART I


RESOURCES AND DEVELOPMENT


The Northern Indus Plains region features a favorable climate for perennial
agriculture; abundant culturable lands which are highly developed for irrigation; a massive
system of surface-water storage, diversion and distribution works, rapidly expanding
ground-water development for irrigation, and large undeveloped resources of ground water
and surface water; the foundations of an adequate infrastructure; and a large rural popula-
tion with strong traditions in irrigated agriculture. This combination of resources describes
a highly favorable environment for rapid and intensive development of agriculture.
Considering the magnitude of all of the factors involved, the prospects for irrigation devel-
opment in the Northern Indus Plains probably are unique in world experience. There are
no obvious restraints to development other than the availability of funds to finance the
works required to mobilize the resources for development.


CLIMATE

The climate of the region is nearly ideal for irrigated agriculture. The Hindu Kush
and Himalaya Mountains form a barrier in the north that effectively protects the irrigated
plains from northern cold fronts and associated storm activities violent windstorms, hail,
and like phenomena. As daytime temperatures are warm to hot throughout the year and
killing frosts are virtually unknown, agriculture can be practiced on a year-around basis.
Precipitation is scanty but concentrated in the hot summer season when crop water require-
ments are highest.

The mean annual temperature ranges from 740F to 800F. Daily temperatures range
from about 600F to 1200F during the summer months, and from 350F to 750F during winter
(Figure 5). The median annual effective precipitation ranges from about 16 inches at
Sialkot in the north to 2 inches at Gudu in the south (Figure 6), and averages about 7
inches, two-thirds of which falls during the monsoon season, from July to September.

Owing to the relatively high temperatures and the low and uneven seasonal distri-
bution of rainfall, irrigation is necessary throughout the region to sustain profitable agri-
cultural production. As shown in Figure 7, irrigation requirements vary widely over the
region primarily as a result of the patterns of distribution of temperature and rainfall.
Annual irrigation requirements per unit area are approximately 35 percent higher in the
southern portion of the region than in the north.










WATER


Surface Water

Basin Runoff. The region is traversed by the Indus River and its four major tributar-
ies, the Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, and Sutlej Rivers, which join to form the Paninad River
(Figure 8). As the eastern tributaries, the Ravi and the Sutlej Rivers, have been allocated
to India for unrestricted use effective April 1970, only the Indus River and the western
tributaries, the Jhelum and Chenab Rivers, are involved in the future development of the
West Pakistan. India also is entitled to withdraw minor amounts of water, principally during
the summer months, from the Jhelum and Chenab Rivers. The runoff records used herein
have been adjusted for future Indian withdrawals.

Runoff data for the Indus, Chenab, and Jhelum Rivers, adjusted for the future
Indian withdrawals, are given in Table 1. The data represent 42 years of record for the
rim stations at Marala on the Chenab River, Mangla on the Jhelum River, and Attock at
the confluence of the Indus River and its major right bank tributary, the Kabul River.

The total annual inflow at the three stations ranges from a high of 177 maf to a low
of 111 maf with a mean of 140 maf. Approximately 66 percent of the mean annual inflow
is provided by the Indus River with the Chenab River accounting for 18 percent and the
Jhelum River 16 percent.

Seasonal variability of runoff is considerably greater than annual variability for
all three rivers. Eighty percent or more of the annual runoff occurs during the period
April through October, and 50 to 60 percent during three of the summer months June
through August for the Indus and Chenab Rivers, and May through July for the Jhelum
River. July commonly is the month of peak flow. Monthly runoff data for the three rivers
and for the basin are given in Tables 2, 3, 4, and 5.

Quality of Surface Water. Most of the runoff of the Indus Basin is derived from
summer snowmelt and monsoon precipitation which move directly into the surface drainage
by overland flow. With that uncomplicated history the surface water has little opportun-
ity to accumulate mineral matter in solution as it is exposed only briefly to surficial
materials which are largely insoluble. This is reflected in the mineral composition and
concentration of the surface waters where they enter the region. Analyses of samples
collected at the rim stations at Attock, Mangla, and Marala show that the mineral content
of the waters commonly falls in the range of concentration of 150 to 250 ppm dissolved
solids and consists mainly of the alkaline earths and bicarbonate. As the higher values
commonly represent low flow conditions, the average mineral content of the surface water
at the rim stations is less than 200 ppm.

The quality of the surface water may be modified within the Northern Indus Plains
during periods of low runoff when much of the flow is derived from regeneration. Under
those conditions the concentration of dissolved solids may increase to the range of 300 to
400 ppm. However, this is a seasonal and local phenomena restricted to the downstream
reaches of the rivers below the main canal diversion works.










WATER


Surface Water

Basin Runoff. The region is traversed by the Indus River and its four major tributar-
ies, the Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, and Sutlej Rivers, which join to form the Paninad River
(Figure 8). As the eastern tributaries, the Ravi and the Sutlej Rivers, have been allocated
to India for unrestricted use effective April 1970, only the Indus River and the western
tributaries, the Jhelum and Chenab Rivers, are involved in the future development of the
West Pakistan. India also is entitled to withdraw minor amounts of water, principally during
the summer months, from the Jhelum and Chenab Rivers. The runoff records used herein
have been adjusted for future Indian withdrawals.

Runoff data for the Indus, Chenab, and Jhelum Rivers, adjusted for the future
Indian withdrawals, are given in Table 1. The data represent 42 years of record for the
rim stations at Marala on the Chenab River, Mangla on the Jhelum River, and Attock at
the confluence of the Indus River and its major right bank tributary, the Kabul River.

The total annual inflow at the three stations ranges from a high of 177 maf to a low
of 111 maf with a mean of 140 maf. Approximately 66 percent of the mean annual inflow
is provided by the Indus River with the Chenab River accounting for 18 percent and the
Jhelum River 16 percent.

Seasonal variability of runoff is considerably greater than annual variability for
all three rivers. Eighty percent or more of the annual runoff occurs during the period
April through October, and 50 to 60 percent during three of the summer months June
through August for the Indus and Chenab Rivers, and May through July for the Jhelum
River. July commonly is the month of peak flow. Monthly runoff data for the three rivers
and for the basin are given in Tables 2, 3, 4, and 5.

Quality of Surface Water. Most of the runoff of the Indus Basin is derived from
summer snowmelt and monsoon precipitation which move directly into the surface drainage
by overland flow. With that uncomplicated history the surface water has little opportun-
ity to accumulate mineral matter in solution as it is exposed only briefly to surficial
materials which are largely insoluble. This is reflected in the mineral composition and
concentration of the surface waters where they enter the region. Analyses of samples
collected at the rim stations at Attock, Mangla, and Marala show that the mineral content
of the waters commonly falls in the range of concentration of 150 to 250 ppm dissolved
solids and consists mainly of the alkaline earths and bicarbonate. As the higher values
commonly represent low flow conditions, the average mineral content of the surface water
at the rim stations is less than 200 ppm.

The quality of the surface water may be modified within the Northern Indus Plains
during periods of low runoff when much of the flow is derived from regeneration. Under
those conditions the concentration of dissolved solids may increase to the range of 300 to
400 ppm. However, this is a seasonal and local phenomena restricted to the downstream
reaches of the rivers below the main canal diversion works.










WATER


Surface Water

Basin Runoff. The region is traversed by the Indus River and its four major tributar-
ies, the Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, and Sutlej Rivers, which join to form the Paninad River
(Figure 8). As the eastern tributaries, the Ravi and the Sutlej Rivers, have been allocated
to India for unrestricted use effective April 1970, only the Indus River and the western
tributaries, the Jhelum and Chenab Rivers, are involved in the future development of the
West Pakistan. India also is entitled to withdraw minor amounts of water, principally during
the summer months, from the Jhelum and Chenab Rivers. The runoff records used herein
have been adjusted for future Indian withdrawals.

Runoff data for the Indus, Chenab, and Jhelum Rivers, adjusted for the future
Indian withdrawals, are given in Table 1. The data represent 42 years of record for the
rim stations at Marala on the Chenab River, Mangla on the Jhelum River, and Attock at
the confluence of the Indus River and its major right bank tributary, the Kabul River.

The total annual inflow at the three stations ranges from a high of 177 maf to a low
of 111 maf with a mean of 140 maf. Approximately 66 percent of the mean annual inflow
is provided by the Indus River with the Chenab River accounting for 18 percent and the
Jhelum River 16 percent.

Seasonal variability of runoff is considerably greater than annual variability for
all three rivers. Eighty percent or more of the annual runoff occurs during the period
April through October, and 50 to 60 percent during three of the summer months June
through August for the Indus and Chenab Rivers, and May through July for the Jhelum
River. July commonly is the month of peak flow. Monthly runoff data for the three rivers
and for the basin are given in Tables 2, 3, 4, and 5.

Quality of Surface Water. Most of the runoff of the Indus Basin is derived from
summer snowmelt and monsoon precipitation which move directly into the surface drainage
by overland flow. With that uncomplicated history the surface water has little opportun-
ity to accumulate mineral matter in solution as it is exposed only briefly to surficial
materials which are largely insoluble. This is reflected in the mineral composition and
concentration of the surface waters where they enter the region. Analyses of samples
collected at the rim stations at Attock, Mangla, and Marala show that the mineral content
of the waters commonly falls in the range of concentration of 150 to 250 ppm dissolved
solids and consists mainly of the alkaline earths and bicarbonate. As the higher values
commonly represent low flow conditions, the average mineral content of the surface water
at the rim stations is less than 200 ppm.

The quality of the surface water may be modified within the Northern Indus Plains
during periods of low runoff when much of the flow is derived from regeneration. Under
those conditions the concentration of dissolved solids may increase to the range of 300 to
400 ppm. However, this is a seasonal and local phenomena restricted to the downstream
reaches of the rivers below the main canal diversion works.










WATER


Surface Water

Basin Runoff. The region is traversed by the Indus River and its four major tributar-
ies, the Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, and Sutlej Rivers, which join to form the Paninad River
(Figure 8). As the eastern tributaries, the Ravi and the Sutlej Rivers, have been allocated
to India for unrestricted use effective April 1970, only the Indus River and the western
tributaries, the Jhelum and Chenab Rivers, are involved in the future development of the
West Pakistan. India also is entitled to withdraw minor amounts of water, principally during
the summer months, from the Jhelum and Chenab Rivers. The runoff records used herein
have been adjusted for future Indian withdrawals.

Runoff data for the Indus, Chenab, and Jhelum Rivers, adjusted for the future
Indian withdrawals, are given in Table 1. The data represent 42 years of record for the
rim stations at Marala on the Chenab River, Mangla on the Jhelum River, and Attock at
the confluence of the Indus River and its major right bank tributary, the Kabul River.

The total annual inflow at the three stations ranges from a high of 177 maf to a low
of 111 maf with a mean of 140 maf. Approximately 66 percent of the mean annual inflow
is provided by the Indus River with the Chenab River accounting for 18 percent and the
Jhelum River 16 percent.

Seasonal variability of runoff is considerably greater than annual variability for
all three rivers. Eighty percent or more of the annual runoff occurs during the period
April through October, and 50 to 60 percent during three of the summer months June
through August for the Indus and Chenab Rivers, and May through July for the Jhelum
River. July commonly is the month of peak flow. Monthly runoff data for the three rivers
and for the basin are given in Tables 2, 3, 4, and 5.

Quality of Surface Water. Most of the runoff of the Indus Basin is derived from
summer snowmelt and monsoon precipitation which move directly into the surface drainage
by overland flow. With that uncomplicated history the surface water has little opportun-
ity to accumulate mineral matter in solution as it is exposed only briefly to surficial
materials which are largely insoluble. This is reflected in the mineral composition and
concentration of the surface waters where they enter the region. Analyses of samples
collected at the rim stations at Attock, Mangla, and Marala show that the mineral content
of the waters commonly falls in the range of concentration of 150 to 250 ppm dissolved
solids and consists mainly of the alkaline earths and bicarbonate. As the higher values
commonly represent low flow conditions, the average mineral content of the surface water
at the rim stations is less than 200 ppm.

The quality of the surface water may be modified within the Northern Indus Plains
during periods of low runoff when much of the flow is derived from regeneration. Under
those conditions the concentration of dissolved solids may increase to the range of 300 to
400 ppm. However, this is a seasonal and local phenomena restricted to the downstream
reaches of the rivers below the main canal diversion works.














I,


-J


LEGEND

m/ e. monthly mnuimm temperate
S Mea monlthl minimum temperature

78 Ilsothermal of mean sam tLImpratur

| International Boundary

S Brrge or Heodworks

Principal Canals

*. siraLSKOT Principal Cities and Towns


KHANPUR
Reord High IF /
R Icord lo. 24E


SCALE OF mILs


NORTHERN INDUS PLAINS


TEMPERATURE


"a `~-


D.. HHAN /


D KN.AN


w


*NANsPUR










































































LEGEND

/ U effective prciptinie

p reciptti is -atc
S Msoed iat "an momer-gin
Serim earS ase- onmo

| latresti-ml Bnd. y

/- If Butrucge or lNOW r


Primaig cafus

Pr ccil Cties wd is


I SIALKOT


*J
//\
T('





1g97


7-9


- /


EEC 64T r usE.& EESEr *EuE tf


PRF I


OIRTHERI IIDUS PLAINS

EFFECTIVE PRECIPITATION


0L

2~"


PESHAWAR l^


-i
S






I,


*Eiir~aWre


FIGURE 7


v+4-v
A \<


.C


Pa horpur .,
124


S.


LEGEND
INDEX APPROXIMATE IRRIGATION WATER
NUMBSERr' REQUIREMENT AT CROP
S100 114 .to .7 feet per cropped acre

1 1 -129 1.7to 1.9 feet per cropped acre

130 -135 1.9 to 2.0 feet per cropped acre
--Annual irrigation requirement at the crop
based on Project 4 orea equal to 100.
International Boundary

Barrage or Headworks

Principal Canals

IfsuALor Principal Cities and Towns


/ C




WEST PAKISTAN WATER ANDo POWER DEVELOPMENT AUTHORITY
TIPTON AND KALMACH. iNWC.-ENGINEERS


SCALE OF MILES


NORTHERN INDUS PLAINS


IRRIGATION WATER REQUIREMENT INDEX


1i





/


INWAL1


-Abboas/
]?-3


*/i





















j0


J


p


ft1


S,7


"**}
'a 4
4



i








in
,4
-7 '


**<:


*0


24
A


zzI


LEGEND
CANAL SUPPLIES
Greater than 80% Perennial
50%- 80% Perennial
50% 80% Non-Perennial
Greater than 80% Non-Perennial


International Boundary
Barrage or Headworks
Principal Canals
IsiiAor Principal Cities and Towns


\ N;.


WEST PAKISTAN WATER AND POWER DEVELOPMENT AUTHORITY
TIPTON AND KALMBACH, INC., NSINEERS


NORTHERN INDUS PLAINS
PRESENT SEASONAL DISTRIBUTION
OF CANAL SUPPLIES


yi


7



'in

1 ;N)


i 5 -


.'tna" on


--I


'8

j
IJP?
/

-:~ i I


1
/j
i"


.A


I I


I
i


J/
<"r'" ..


-


a
c
Y)
s


SCALE ILES
SALt oF MILES


" i


.....~

i


"

6 L-,
.c. i i'7r

r)


~~--- --












Table 1

ANNUAL RUNOFF OF WESTERN RIVERS FOR THE PERIOD 1922-1963
(All values in MAF and adjusted for future withdrawals by India)


Indus Jhelum Chenab Indus Jhelum
Year at Attock at Mangla at Marala Total & Jhelum & Chenab
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)


1922
1923
1924
1925
1926
1927
1928
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963

Maximum
Minimum
Mean
Median


106.89
99.23
109.81
86.12
88.29
76.35
96.30
90.77
104.59
90.87
93.03
97.94
92.47
92.38
96.65
87.70
97.88
105.64
81.45
90.84
106.35
96.22
86.78
99.31
86.19
77.01
87.03
95.73
99.98
71.99
87.78
88.75
94.01
82.31
100.66
85.70
95.51
109.53
102.44
89.32
72.16
89.49

109.81
71.99
92.60
92.38


25.28
22.84
27.03
20.21
22.25
18.73
26.75
21.60
26.80
25.12
21.12
26.24
16.82
23.83
25.00
19.91
22.82
23.74
15.81
16.87
25.27
24.58
18.27
20.85
14.26
15.76
28.01
24.30
31.27
19.93
20.04
18.35
27.07
17.98
23.59
32.90
22.87
30.78
19.71
20.31
16.89
23.00

32.90
14.26
22.49
22.82


22.29
20.74
20.18
19.27
21.32
18.84
21.04
21.90
25.43
19.21
20.48
25.92
21.12
24.47
25.70
20.41
28.58
22.89
17.77
19.88
27.65
28.22
23.49
24.75
21.95
25.19
33.36
25.96
36.26
20.20
24.09
23.94
27.47
27.22
31.79
32.83
29.08
36.37
23.55
29.46
22.20
22.53

36.37
17.77
24.64
23.55


154.46
142.81
157.02
125.60
131.86
113.92
144.09
134.27
156.82
135.20
134.63
150.10
130.41
140.68
147.35
128.02
149.28
152.27
115.03
127.59
159.27
149.02
128.54
144.91
122.40
117.96
148.40
145.99
167.51
112.12
131.91
131.04
148.55
127.51
156.04
151.43
147.46
176.68
145.70
139.09
111.25
135.02

176.68
111.25
139.74
140.68


132.17
122.07
136.84
106.33
110.54
95.08
123.05
112.37
131.39
115.99
114.15
124.18
109.29
116.21
121.65
107.61
120.70
129.38
97.26
107.71
131.62
120.80
105.05
120.16
100.45
92.77
115.04
120.03
131.25
91.92
107.82
107.10
121.08
100.29
124.25
118.60
118.38
140.31
122.15
109.63
89.05
112.49

140.31
89.05
115.10
115.99


47.57
43.58
47.21
39.48
43.57
37.57
47.79
43.50
52.23
44.33
41.60
52.16
37.94
48.30
50.70
40.32
51.40
46.63
33.58
36.75
52.92
52.80
41.76
45.60
36.21
40.95
61.37
50.26
67.53
40.13
44.13
42.29
54.54
45.20
55.38
65.73
51.95
67.15
43.26
49.77
39.09
45.53

67.53
33.58
47.13
45.53









Table 2


INDUS RIVER AT ATTOCK
Statistical Summary 1922-1963
(All values in MAF and adjusted for future withdrawals by India)

Monthly Mean Maximum Minimum Median Dependable
Month % MAF Monthly Monthly Monthly (80%)

January 1.84 1.70 2.30 1.36 1.62 1.48
February 1.74 1.61 2.46 1.20 1.57 1.29
March 2.64 2.45 5.57 1.55 2.18 1.80
April 4.64 4.28 6.45 1.94 4.10 3.37
May 9.00 8.33 15.27 4.42 7.59 6.13
June 16.90 15.62 22.75 8.61 15.90 12.54
July 24.30 22.53 32.20 15.65 22.66 18.74
August 21.40 19.79 25.68 14.90 19.30 17.18
September 9.40 8.69 12.39 5.28 9.09 7.18
October 3.84 3.56 6.44 2.30 3.52 3.00
November 2.30 2.12 3.52 1.70 2.08 1.87
December 2.00 1.85 2.60 1.42 1.79 1.64
Total 100.00 92.53 137.63 60.33 91.40 76.22



Table 3

JHELUM RIVER AT MANGLA
Statistical Summary 1922-1963
(All values in MAF and adjusted for future withdrawals by India)

Month Monthly Mean Maximum Minimum Median Dependable
% MAF Monthly Monthly Monthly (80%)


January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
Total


2.30
3.20
6.90
11.40
16.10
16.30
16.10
12.50
7.10
3.67
2.35
2.08
100.00


0.52
0.72
1.55
2.56
3.61
3.66
3.59
2.81
1.60
0.83
0.53
0.47
22.45


1.05
1.93
2.98
3.93
5.44
5.92
7.64
5.08
3.51
1.77
1.56
1.63
42.44


0.33
0.32
0.67
1.54
1.75
2.15
1.64
1.40
0.72
0.48
0.33
0.31
11.64


0.46
0.62
1.46
2.59
3.50
3.62
3.46
2.59
1.47
0.72
0.48
0.41
21.38


0.38
0.42
0.96
1.92
2.87
2.77
2.57
2.02
1.08
0.59
0.40
0.37
16.35








Table 4


CHENAB RIVER AT MARALA
Statistical Summary 1922-1963
(All values in MAF and adjusted for future withdrawals by India)

Month Monthly Mean Maximum Minimum Median Dependable
% MAF Monthly Monthly Monthly (80%)

January 2.02 0.50 1.22 0.24 0.45 0.32
February 2.55 0.63 1.87 0.26 0.52 0.37
March 4.15 1.02 3.09 0.48 0.87 0.61
April 5.20 1.28 2.39 0.67 1.30 0.86
May 8.61 2.12 4.42 1.05 1.99 1.53
June 13.90 3.42 5.06 1.63 3.41 2.83
July 22.20 5.47 7.84 3.48 5.09 4.51
August 22.00 5.40 8.37 3.49 5.09 4.31
September 11.70 2.87 6.83 1.61 2.65 1.91
October 3.94 0.97 3.22 0.48 0.80 0.66
November 1.98 0.49 1.43 0.32 0.43 0.38
December 1.75 0.43 1.15 0.25 0.37 0.31
Total 100.00 24.60 46.89 13.96 22.97 18.60



Table 5

WESTERN RIVERS AT RIM STATIONS
Statistical Summary 1922-1963
(All values in MAF and adjusted for future withdrawals by India)

Month Monthly Mean Maximum Minimum Median Dependable
% MAF Monthly Monthly Monthly (80%)


January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
Total


1.95
2.13
3.60
5.82
10.10
16.30
22.60
20.00
9.43
3.85
2.25
1.97
100.00


2.73
2.97
5.03
8.13
14.07
22.71
31.60
28.01
13.15
5.37
3.15
2.76
139.68


4.37
5.85
9.39
12.25
24.62
31.50
42.67
37.02
18.94
19.04
5.97
5.06
216.68


1.99
1.84
2.93
4.57
7.22
13.03
21.83
20.58
8.24
3.41
2.50
2.07
90.21


2.62
2.69
4.84
8.00
13.26
23.44
30.78
27.92
13.22
5.05
3.01
2.65
137.48


2.25
2.23
3.50
6.44
10.75
19.06
26.18
23.66
10.75
4.53
2.72
2.43
114.50










Quality-of-water standards for irrigation supply are described in Volume III.
According to these criteria, the surface waters of the region are of excellent quality, and
no restrictions apply to their use for irrigation supply.

Utilization of Surface Water. Exploitation of surface-water resources has been
limited historically by the highly seasonal distribution of runoff, and by the lack of surface
storage to provide either seasonal or hold-over storage. The year is divided into two irri-
gation seasons the Rabi or winter season which extends from October through March, and
the Kharif or summer season. Canals which operate year-around are termed "perennial"
canals, and those which operate only during the summer months are termed "nonperennial"
canals. The seasonal distribution of canal supplies under the existing system of works is
portrayed in Figure 8. Details of the existing diversion and distribution works are summar-
ized in Table 6. Historical withdrawals have averaged 42 maf (Table 7) including about
15 maf derived from the eastern rivers.

The works being constructed under the Indus Basin Project (IBP) will permit more
efficient control and more flexible distribution of the surface-water supplies. The IBP
works include Mangla Dam on the Jhelum River, which is scheduled for operation with a
reservoir capacity of 5.3 maf in April 1967; Tarbela Dam on the Indus River with a reservoir
capacity of 11.1 maf operational in 1975; and seven link canals which will become oper-
ational between 1967 and 1972 and will provide for the transfer of about 23 maf per year
of surface supplies from the western rivers to the lands of the eastern rivers. Details of the
post-IBP diversion and distribution works are summarized in Table 8, and the source of
canal supplies for the various systems is portrayed in Figure 9.

The implications of Tarbela and Mangla storage works on the control and use of the
median annual runoff of the Indus Basin are shown in Table 9. Values in this Table are
based on an assumed effective storage capacity of 5 maf at Mangla and 8.6 maf at Tarbela.
These values approximate the effective live storage capacities of the reservoirs for irrigation
uses; they also approximate the residual capacities of the reservoirs by about 1990. As
neither of the reservoirs has sufficient capacity in relation to annual flow or demand to pro-
vide hold-over storage both will be operated for seasonal storage and regulation.

Table 9

IMPLICATIONS OF STORAGE IN YEAR OF MEDIAN MONTHLY RUNOFF
(All values in million acre feet)
Historical Flow Post Mangla Flow Post Tarbela Flow
River Rabi Kharif Annual Rabi Kharif Annual Rabi Kharif Annual

Indus 12.76 78.64 91.40 12.76 78.64 91.40 20.32 70.73 91.05
Jhelum 4.15 17.23 21.38 9.10 12.11 21.21 9.10 12.11 21.21
Chenab 3.44 19.53 22.97 3.44 19.53 22.97 3.44 19.53 22.97
Totals 20.35 115.40 135.75 25.30 110.28 135.58 32.86 102.37 135.23







Table 6


NORTHERN INDUS PLAINS


PRE-INDUS BASIN PROJECTS (I.B.P)

SURFACE WATER DIVERSION AND DISTRIBUTION WORKS
(For purposes of this summary ,"Pre-I.B.P." is considered as prior to
operation of Morala- Ravi, B.R.B.D. and Balloki-Suleimanke Links.)

TRANSFER WORKS IRRIGATION WORKS
CAPACITY CAPACITY CAPACITY AREA
SOURCE OF
SOURCE OF CANAL COMMAND AT AT DELIVERS AT (1000 ACRES)

SUPPLY HEAD LINK TAIL SUPPLIES TO: HEAD
G.A. C.C.A.
(CUSECS) (CUSECS) (CUSECS)
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)


INDUS RIVER THAL
PAHARPUR
MUZAFFARGARH
D. G. KHAN
SUBTOTAL- INDUS RIVER


JHELUM RIVER UPPER JHELUM
LOWER JHELUM
SUBTOTAL- JHELUM RIVER


CHENAB RIVER


JHELUM AND
CHENAB RIVERS

SUBTOTAL-


UPPER CHENAB


LOWER CHENAB
RANGPUR
HAVELI
JHELUM AND CHENAB


I
SUBTOTAL-WESTERN RIVERS

ER CENTRAL BARI DOAB


RAVI CUM JHELUM LOWER BARI DOAB
AND CHENAB RIVERS SIDHNAI
SUBTOTAL RAVI CUM JHELUM AND


SUTLEJ RIVER







SUBTOTAL-

PANJNAD RIVER


DIPALPUR
PAKPATTAN
EASTERN SADIOIA
FORDWAH
MAILSI
BAHAWAL
SUTLEJ RIVER

ABBASIA
PANJNAD


12,031 U.J.C.




16,500 U.C.C.


5,240
RIVERS










:HENAB


7,000 KHANKI




7,000 BALLOKI


HAVELI 4,400


SIDHNAI


RIVERS


SUBTOTAL- PANJNAD RIVER

SUBTOTAL-EASTERN RIVERS

TOTAL-NORTHERN INDUS PLAINS
TOTAL-NORTHERN INDUS PLAINS
I


6,000 2,325.1 1,608.1
480 108.6 103.8
8,301 800.6 714.0
8,757 785.2 699.3
23,538 4,019.5 3,125.2


1,878((a) 697.1
5,280 1,737.2
7,158 2,434.3


5,075(")


540.8
1,499.7
2,040.5


1,864.5 1,471.0


I 1,530 3,794.7 2,923.1
2,710 372.2 347.1
744(a) 163.2 157.8
14,984 4,330.1 3,428.0


50,755 12,648.4 10,064.7


2,695b) 881.6 581.4


7,000 1,822.2
4,500 963.8
I 1,500 2,786.0


6,950
6,594
4,91 7
3,366
4,883


1,1 10.1
1,396.4
1,135.7
470.8
801.4


1,460.7
861.7
2,322.4

983.2
1,261.0
942.5
427.0
688.2


5,400 823.1 666.6
32,1 10 5,737.5 4,968.5

1,064 130.7 109.2
9,567 1,546.5 1,335.0
10,631 1,677.2 1,444.2

56,936 1 1,082.3 9,316.5

107,691 23,730.7 19,381.2


NOTES:
(a) Sum of capacities of distributaries
offtaking from Link.
(b) Sum of capacities of distributaries
below international boundaries.


RAVI RIV


C





NORTHERN INDUS PLAINS


HISTORIC DELIVERIES TO CANAL HEADWORKS (1947-1960)
(All values in thousand cusecs unless otherwise noted)

RABBI KHARIF ANNUAL
CANAL COMMAND OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR RAA APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP HR MA
TOTAL-MAPF TOTAL-MAF TOTAL-MAP
(I) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) (14) (15) (16)


THAL 5.3 5.0 4.2 1.3 3.0 4.6 1.423 4.9 5.2 5.6 5.1 5.1 5.2 1.897 3.320
PAHARPUR 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 0 0.2 0.049 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.147 0.196
MUZAFFARGARH 2.7 0.2 0.5 0 0.1 0.2 0.228 1.1 4.7 5.8 5.4 5.8 5.5 1.730 1.958
D.G. KHAN 2.0 0.3 0.5 0 0.4 0.5 0.226 0.6 2.2 3.0 2.7 2.8 2.7 0.856 1.082
SUBTOTAL-INDUS RIVER 10.3 5.7 5.3 1.3 3.5 5.5 1.926 6.9 12.5 14.8 13.6 14.1 13.9 4.630 6.556


UPPER JHELUM 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.3 1.1 0.245 1.6 1.9 1.2 2.2 2.0 1.8 0.654 0.899
LOWER JHELUM 4.9 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.8 1.361 4.5 5.1 5.3 4.6 4.6 4.9 1.769 3.130
SUBTOTAL-JHELUM RIVER 6.2 4.3 3.8 3.5 3.7 4.9 1.606 6.1 7.0 6.5 6.8 6.6 6.7 2.423 4.029

UPPER CHENAB 2.7 1.5 0.8 1.1 1.0 1.6 0.530 2.7 3.1 4.6 3.6 3.2 3.6 1.268 1.798
M-R LINK 0.4 0 0 0 0 0 0.025 0 0 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.194 0.219
SUBTOTAL- CHENAB RIVER 3.1 1.5 0.8 1.1 1.0 1.6 0.555 2.7 3.1 5.6 4.4 3.9 4.3 1.462 2.017


LOWER CHENAB 10.3 8.6 6.3 5.0 7.9 9.5 2.887 9.8 11.1 1 1.4 10.3 9.0 10.3 3.773 6.660
RANGPUR 1.3 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.261 0.9 1.6 1.9 1.6 1.6 1.6 0.562 0.823
HAVEL I 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.097 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.208 0.305
SUBTOTAL-JHELUM AND CHENAB RIVERS 12.1 9.5 7.1 5.6 8.8 10.4 3.245 1 1.1 13.3 13.9 12.5 11.2 12.5 4.543 7.788
SUBTOTAL-WESTERN RIVERS 31.7 21.0 17.0 I 1.5 17.0 22.4 7.332 26.8 35.9 40.8 37.3 35.8 37.4 13.058 20.390

CENTRAL BARI DOAB 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.7 0.438 1.6 2.1 2.2 1.9 1.4 1.7 0.664 1.102
LOWER BARI DOAB 6.3 5.5 2.9 5.2 5.4 6.4 1.922 6.5 7.4 7.4 6.7 6.0 6.6 2.476 4.398
SIDH NA I 2.9 2.3 1.9 1.0 2.1 2.1 0.745 2.5 3.4 3.6 3.4 2.7 3.2 1.147 1.892
SUBTOTAL-RAVI CUM JHELUM AND
CHENAB RIVERS 10.4 8.9 5.9 7.2 8.6 10.2 3.105 10.6 12.9 13.2 12.0 10.1 11.5 4.287 7.392

DIPALPUR 1.9 0.1 0 0 0 0 0.125 0 1.6 3.4 5.3 5.5 5.4 1.294 1.419
PAKPATTAN 3.4 2.6 2.2 1.7 2.4 2.2 0.879 2.5 2.5 3.7 5.5 5.6 5.1 1.524 2.403
EASTERN SADIQIA 3.2 3.2 2.5 2.2 2.8 3.0 1.023 3.3 2.7 3.4 4.4 4.5 4.4 1.387 2.410
FORDWAH 1.2 1.5 0 0 0 0 0. 1 64 0.2 0.7 1.6 2.5 2.5 2.6 0.618 0.782
MAILS I 2.0 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.1 0 0.197 0.6 1.4 2.6 4.1 5.0 4.1 1.089 1.286
BAHAWA L 2.8 1.3 0.6 1.3 1.1 0.7 0.475 0.8 1.3 3.3 4.8 5.3 4.8 1 .240 1.715
SUBTOTAL-SUTL EJ RIV ER 14.5 9.2 5.6 5.5 6.4 5.9 2.863 7.4 10.2 18.0 26.6 28.4 26.4 7.152 10.015

ABBASI A 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 0. 146 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.251 0.397
PAN J NAD 6.4 3.3 1.4 2.9 3.0 2.4 1.178 4.5 7.5 8.6 8.0 7.3 8.1 2.686 3.864
SUBTOTAL-PANJNAD RIVER 7.1 3.7 1.6 3.3 3.3 2.8 1.324 5.0 8.2 9.4 8.8 8.0 8.7 2.937 4.261
SUBTOTAL-EASTERN RIVERS 32.0 21.8 13.1 16.0 18.3 18.9 7.292 23.0 31.3 40.6 47.4 46.5 46.6 14.376 21.668

TOTAL-NORTHERN INDUS PLAINS 63.7 42.8 30.1 27.5 35.3 41.3 14.624 49.8 67.2 81.4 84.7 82.3 84.0 27.434 42.058








Table 8

NORTHERN INDUS PLAINS


POST-INDUS BASIN PROJECTS (I.B.P.)

SURFACE WATER DIVERSION AND DISTRIBUTION WORKS




TRANSFER WORKS IRRIGATION WORKS
CAPACITY CAPACITY CAPACITY AREA
SOURCE OF CANAL COMMAND AT AT DELIVERS AT (1000 ACRES)

SUPPLY HEAD LINK TAIL SUPPLIES TO: HEAD
G.A. C.C.A.
(C U SECS) (CUSECS) (CUSECS)
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)


INDUS RIVER


PAHARPUR


MUZAFFARGARH
D. G. KHAN
SUBTOTAL- INDUS RIVER


JHELUM RIVER


UPPER JHELUM


LOWER JHELUM
SUBTOTAL- JHELUM RIVER


CHENAB RIVER M-R LINK
UPPER CHENAB
B.R.B.D. LINK
CENTRAL BARI DOAB
UPPER DIPALPUR
SUBTOTAL- CHENAB RIVER


JHELUM AND
CHENAB RIVERS


LOWER CHENAB


LOWER CHENAB FEEDER
LOWER BARI DOAB



LOWER DIPALPUR
UPPER PAKPATTAN
EASTERN SADIQIA
FORDWAH
SUBTOTAL- JHELUM AND CHENAB F

INDUS CUM RANGPUR
JHELUM AND
CHENAB RIVERS HAVELI
SIDHNA I

LOWER PAKPATTAN
MAILS I


BAHAWAL
ABBASIA
PANJNAD


THAL


SUBTOTAL- INDUS CUM JHELUM AND CHENAB

TOTAL-NORTHERN NDUS PLANS
TOTAL- NORTHERN INDUS PLAINS


20,900


I 1,500


UJC 7,000
R-Q 18,822


22,000


12,000






12,03 I
19,000





22,000
16,500
5,140







18,600



18,500
6,500






IVERS



12,000
5,250


10,600



4,000


20,000
7,000
2,266







14,500



12,000
6,500










I I ,0 00
4,400


4,000



4,000


TRIMMU


PANJNAD






KHANKI
QADIRABAD




BALLOKI
BALLOKI
C.B.D.C.& UPPER
DIPALPUR C.






BALLOKI



SULEIMANKE
SULEIMANKE










SIDHNAI
SIDHNAI


L.PAKPATTAN,
MAILSI AND
BAHAWAL C.
LOWER BAHAWAL


7,500 2,325.1 1,608.1


480 108.6 103.8


8,301 800.6 714.0
8,757 785.2 699.3
25,038 4,019.5 3,125.2


1,878(a)


697.1 540.8


5,280 1,737.2 1,499.7
7,158 2,434.3 2,040.5


(a)
871 176.8
(a)
3,404(a 1,414.5
1,671 450.0
(a)
2,197 881.6
2,105 ) 352.1
10,248 3,275.0


106.9
1,043.6
427.4
581.4
323.1
2,482.4


I 1,530 2,1 16.1 1,666.2


4,100 1,678.6 1,256.9
7,000 1,901.4 1,525.8



4,099( 758.0 660.1
6,594 1,148.6 1,063.3
4,917 1,135.7 942.5
3,447 470.8 427.0
41,687 9,209.2 7,541.8


2,710 372.2 347.1


744(a)
4,31 5


1,262(a)
5,262(a)


163.2 157.8
884.6 796.6


388.3 331.0
758.4 649.6


3,930 725.6 571.9
1,064 130.7 109.2
9,567 1,546.5 1,335.0
28,854 4,969.5 4,298.2


I I 2,985 23,907.5 19,488.1


NOTE:
(0) Sum of capacities of distributaries
offtaking from Link.


M-R
U.C.C.
B.R.B.D.







0-B



B-S I
B-S U










T-S
HAVELI


S-M



M-B




RIVERS
7

R I









The.surface-water supplies of the Indus system must be shared between the expand-
ing development programs of the Northern and Southern regions of the Indus Plains of West
Pakistan. The procedural rules and priorities for distribution of supplies are yet to be
formulated. However, the allocation to the Southern Indus Plains presumably will approxi-
mate the recommendations given in the development plan for the Lower Indus region, which,
in turn, are patterned after the Sind-Punjab draft agreement of 1945. These call for an
ultimate requirement upstream from Gudu Barrage of about 48 maf per year compared to
recent historical diversions of about 36 maf per year, with all of the increased diversions
allocated to the Kharif season. The rate of development of the Southern Indus Plains is
uncertain. For this study it is assumed that Rabi diversions will remain constant, and that
development of Kharif diversions equivalent to 25 percent of the increased ultimate
commitment will be completed by 1970; 50 percent by 1975; and the full program will be
in operation by 1980.

Thus the future availability of surface supplies to the Northern Indus Plains will be
largely controlled by the timing of the IBP works and the concomitant appropriation of the
flow of the eastern rivers by India, and by the schedule of development for the Lower Indus
region. The composite effects of these factors on future mean-year surface-water supplies
for the Northern Indus Plains are shown in Table 10. These estimates are based on the
following assumptions.

1. Surface-water supplies for both the Northern and Southern Indus Plains will
equal recent historical diversions until April 1970. In the interim, additional
supplies derived from Mangla storage presumably will be offset by increased
diversions from the eastern rivers by India.

2. The effective live storage capacities of Mangla and Tarbela reservoirs are
assumed to be constant, and equal to the estimated storage capacity for about
1990 i.e., 5 maf for Mangla and 8.6 maf for Tarbela. These are conserva-
tive estimates but realistic of conditions during the early years of integration
of storage supplies into the system when contingency releases, power generation
commitments, and various operational losses will make it difficult to achieve
100 percent efficiency in regulation.

Table 10 also shows that after completion of the IBP works and the storage and
diversion works planned for the Lower Indus region, there will remain about 20 maf of
unregulated runoff under median year conditions. This represents a significant reserve for
future development. More than that, the existence of undeveloped surface-water supplies
of this magnitude permits highly flexible and aggressive exploitation of ground water to
satisfy immediate irrigation needs. The hazards of overdevelopment of ground water which
may arise in the future can be eliminated, when necessary, by construction of additional
surface-water storage and diversion works.









































J y

I. --- I
/ ',
./ f .........


;J
r .*"E< ..-.*. / ,^ "



./ .
rr
^'"/1 ^ 50


(


'i




LIZ









I 5110


LEGEND

Jhelum River
Chenob River
Indus River
Jhelum ond Chenob Rivers
Jhelum, indus and Chenab Rivers

International Boundary

Borroge or Heaodworks

Principal Canals

Principal Cities and Towns


WEST PAisTAMs WAYen EAs POnIL DEVEapoLaT AUTnORITY
TIPTOR AND nALMACK,. INC.-MiS1IEECO


NORTHERN INDUS PLAINS

SOURCE OF CANAL SUPPLIES
POST I.B.P.


PESHAWIA


a
f"i \"
-:
,,
F;C~ ~f


j






,J


-A


13


/)


i
6/
i


I.,r


SCALEo F ILES
SCALE OF MILES












Table 10

MEDIAN YEAR SURFACE WATER SUPPLIES AVAILABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE
NORTHERN INDUS PLAINS
(All values in million acre feet)


Surface Water Available for Development
1965 1970 1975 Past 1980
Historic Median Flow Less Median Flow Avail. Avail. Avail. Avail. Estd.
Future Diversions by India Regulated by Storages to N. to N. to N. to N. Uses N. Estd.
Month Fute Diversionsby India Regulated by Storages Reqmt. Indus Reqmt. Indus Reqmt. Indus Reqmt. Indus Indus Unreg.
Indus Jhelum Chenab Total Indus Jhelum Chenab Total at Gudu Plains at Gudu Plains at Gudu Plains at Gudu Plains Plains Flow(a)
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) (14) (15) (16) (17) (18) (19)


3.5 0.7 0.8 5.0

2.1 0.5 0.4 3.0

1.8 0.4 0.4 2.6

1.6 0.5 0.5 2.6

1.6 0.6 0.5 2.7

2.2 1.5 0.9 4.6
12.8 4.2 3.5 T075


4.1 2.6 1.3 8.0

7.6 3.5 2.0 13.1

15.9 3.6 3.4 22.9

22.7 3.5 5.0 31.2

19.3 2.6 5.1 27.0

9.1 1.5 2.7 13.3
78.7 17.3 19.5 115.5

91.5 21.5 23.0 136.0


4.9 1.7 0.8 7.4

3.0 1.6 0.4 5.0

2.5 1.4 0.4 4.3

2.7 1.5 0.5 4.7

3.3 1.5 0.5 5.3

3.1 1.5 0.9 5.5
T9.5 T92 35 32.2


5.5 2.3 1.3 9.1

8.1 2.8 2.0 12.9

14.9 1.6 3.4 19.9

17.7 1.5 5.0 24.2

16.7 2.6 5.1 24.4

9.1 1.5 2.7 13.3
72.0 12.3 19.5 103.8

91.5 21.5 23.0 136.0


2.7

1.9

1.3

1.3

1.8

1.7
10.7


2.4

3.8

5.4

5.7

5.1

4.0


37.1


5.6

9.3

17.5

25.5

21.9

9.3
89.1

98.9


3.3

2.2

2.3

2.3

1.8

2.9
ST|T


3.1

6.0

7.6

8.4

7.6

5.0
37.7

48.4


4.7 4.7

3.1 3.1

3.0 3.0

3.4 3.4

3.5 3.5

3.8 3.8
21.5 2T?


6.0 6.0

6.9 6.9

12.3 8.5

15.8 8.8

16.8 8.7

8.3 6.5
66.1 45.4

87.6 66.9


0

0

3.8

7.0

8.1

1.8
20.7

20.7


(a) Unregulated flow measured at Kalabagh.


October

November

December

January

February

March
Rabi


April

May

June

July

August

September
Kharif

Total









Ground Water

The Alluvial Aquifer. Essentially the entire Northern Indus Plains region is under-
lain to depths of 1,000 feet or more with unconsolidated sediments of alluvial origin. The
alluvium comprises a unified, more or less homogeneous water table aquifer which, under
present conditions of development, is saturated to within a few feet of the land surface.
The sediments vary in texture from medium-grained sand to silty clay, but the sandy sedi-
ments predominate, and modern gravel-packed wells, 200 to 400 feet deep, yielding 5
cusecs or more, can be developed at virtually any site.

The water-bearing properties of the alluvium have been the subject of considerable,
and as yet unresolved controversy. WASID has conducted a continuous program of experi-
mental field studies since about 1956, which established the feasibility of developing the
alluvial aquifer both for irrigation supplies and for drainage relief. But the estimates of the
values of the critical hydraulic constants which have been derived from the WASID data
vary greatly. For this report the average coefficient of lateral permeability of the alluvial
sediments is taken as 0.0015 cusecs per square foot, and the average coefficient of storage
(specific yield) as 0.25. The vertical permeability has not been studied in sufficient detail
to justify assigning an average value for the region. However, it is evident from geologic
and hydraulic considerations that the alluvium is highly anisotropic. Miscellaneous field
studies by WASID indicate a ratio between lateral and vertical permeability of the order
of 50 to 100 to 1. For this report a ratio of about 50 to 1 is assumed. The value is not
critical in itself, but it is essential to recognize the order of magnitude of the anistropy.

Occurrence of Ground Water. Prior to the development of irrigation on the plains
ground-water recharge was derived from precipitation and from seepage from the rivers.
Precipitation was a significant factor only in the northern part of the region where it exceeds
about 14 inches per year, equivalent to about 10 inches of effective precipitation (Figure 6),
of which it is estimated about 0.3 of a foot per year is recharge. Where mean annual pre-
cipitation is less than 12 to 14 inches per year, recharge from precipitation is negligible -
on the order of 0.1 of a foot per year. Under natural conditions ground-water discharge
occurred largely as evapotranspiration. Ground-water underflow was also a factor in the
ground-water budget, but a minor one as the inflow and outflow components comprised
small fractions of the water involved, and were essentially in balance. Thus, under the
natural regimen the water table sloped downstream and inland from the rivers. The depth
to the water table ranged from less than 10 feet in proximity to the rivers to 90 feet or
more in the central and lower reaches of the doabs, and in the bordering areas of the
Bahawalpur Plain, D. I. Khan and D. G. Khan.

The introduction of canal irrigation markedly changed the natural regimen. Con-
veyance losses from canals, amounting to 25 to 30 percent of the head diversions, formed a
new and dominant component of recharge, equivalent to an average of about 0.5 foot of
water per year over the gross area. The recharge from irrigation activities was more or
less uniformly distributed over the area and could not be dissipated by subsurface drainage
under the flat hydraulic gradients which prevail in the Northern Indus Plains. With the
inception of canal irrigation in any area, ground-water levels rose at the rate of one to









Ground Water

The Alluvial Aquifer. Essentially the entire Northern Indus Plains region is under-
lain to depths of 1,000 feet or more with unconsolidated sediments of alluvial origin. The
alluvium comprises a unified, more or less homogeneous water table aquifer which, under
present conditions of development, is saturated to within a few feet of the land surface.
The sediments vary in texture from medium-grained sand to silty clay, but the sandy sedi-
ments predominate, and modern gravel-packed wells, 200 to 400 feet deep, yielding 5
cusecs or more, can be developed at virtually any site.

The water-bearing properties of the alluvium have been the subject of considerable,
and as yet unresolved controversy. WASID has conducted a continuous program of experi-
mental field studies since about 1956, which established the feasibility of developing the
alluvial aquifer both for irrigation supplies and for drainage relief. But the estimates of the
values of the critical hydraulic constants which have been derived from the WASID data
vary greatly. For this report the average coefficient of lateral permeability of the alluvial
sediments is taken as 0.0015 cusecs per square foot, and the average coefficient of storage
(specific yield) as 0.25. The vertical permeability has not been studied in sufficient detail
to justify assigning an average value for the region. However, it is evident from geologic
and hydraulic considerations that the alluvium is highly anisotropic. Miscellaneous field
studies by WASID indicate a ratio between lateral and vertical permeability of the order
of 50 to 100 to 1. For this report a ratio of about 50 to 1 is assumed. The value is not
critical in itself, but it is essential to recognize the order of magnitude of the anistropy.

Occurrence of Ground Water. Prior to the development of irrigation on the plains
ground-water recharge was derived from precipitation and from seepage from the rivers.
Precipitation was a significant factor only in the northern part of the region where it exceeds
about 14 inches per year, equivalent to about 10 inches of effective precipitation (Figure 6),
of which it is estimated about 0.3 of a foot per year is recharge. Where mean annual pre-
cipitation is less than 12 to 14 inches per year, recharge from precipitation is negligible -
on the order of 0.1 of a foot per year. Under natural conditions ground-water discharge
occurred largely as evapotranspiration. Ground-water underflow was also a factor in the
ground-water budget, but a minor one as the inflow and outflow components comprised
small fractions of the water involved, and were essentially in balance. Thus, under the
natural regimen the water table sloped downstream and inland from the rivers. The depth
to the water table ranged from less than 10 feet in proximity to the rivers to 90 feet or
more in the central and lower reaches of the doabs, and in the bordering areas of the
Bahawalpur Plain, D. I. Khan and D. G. Khan.

The introduction of canal irrigation markedly changed the natural regimen. Con-
veyance losses from canals, amounting to 25 to 30 percent of the head diversions, formed a
new and dominant component of recharge, equivalent to an average of about 0.5 foot of
water per year over the gross area. The recharge from irrigation activities was more or
less uniformly distributed over the area and could not be dissipated by subsurface drainage
under the flat hydraulic gradients which prevail in the Northern Indus Plains. With the
inception of canal irrigation in any area, ground-water levels rose at the rate of one to









Ground Water

The Alluvial Aquifer. Essentially the entire Northern Indus Plains region is under-
lain to depths of 1,000 feet or more with unconsolidated sediments of alluvial origin. The
alluvium comprises a unified, more or less homogeneous water table aquifer which, under
present conditions of development, is saturated to within a few feet of the land surface.
The sediments vary in texture from medium-grained sand to silty clay, but the sandy sedi-
ments predominate, and modern gravel-packed wells, 200 to 400 feet deep, yielding 5
cusecs or more, can be developed at virtually any site.

The water-bearing properties of the alluvium have been the subject of considerable,
and as yet unresolved controversy. WASID has conducted a continuous program of experi-
mental field studies since about 1956, which established the feasibility of developing the
alluvial aquifer both for irrigation supplies and for drainage relief. But the estimates of the
values of the critical hydraulic constants which have been derived from the WASID data
vary greatly. For this report the average coefficient of lateral permeability of the alluvial
sediments is taken as 0.0015 cusecs per square foot, and the average coefficient of storage
(specific yield) as 0.25. The vertical permeability has not been studied in sufficient detail
to justify assigning an average value for the region. However, it is evident from geologic
and hydraulic considerations that the alluvium is highly anisotropic. Miscellaneous field
studies by WASID indicate a ratio between lateral and vertical permeability of the order
of 50 to 100 to 1. For this report a ratio of about 50 to 1 is assumed. The value is not
critical in itself, but it is essential to recognize the order of magnitude of the anistropy.

Occurrence of Ground Water. Prior to the development of irrigation on the plains
ground-water recharge was derived from precipitation and from seepage from the rivers.
Precipitation was a significant factor only in the northern part of the region where it exceeds
about 14 inches per year, equivalent to about 10 inches of effective precipitation (Figure 6),
of which it is estimated about 0.3 of a foot per year is recharge. Where mean annual pre-
cipitation is less than 12 to 14 inches per year, recharge from precipitation is negligible -
on the order of 0.1 of a foot per year. Under natural conditions ground-water discharge
occurred largely as evapotranspiration. Ground-water underflow was also a factor in the
ground-water budget, but a minor one as the inflow and outflow components comprised
small fractions of the water involved, and were essentially in balance. Thus, under the
natural regimen the water table sloped downstream and inland from the rivers. The depth
to the water table ranged from less than 10 feet in proximity to the rivers to 90 feet or
more in the central and lower reaches of the doabs, and in the bordering areas of the
Bahawalpur Plain, D. I. Khan and D. G. Khan.

The introduction of canal irrigation markedly changed the natural regimen. Con-
veyance losses from canals, amounting to 25 to 30 percent of the head diversions, formed a
new and dominant component of recharge, equivalent to an average of about 0.5 foot of
water per year over the gross area. The recharge from irrigation activities was more or
less uniformly distributed over the area and could not be dissipated by subsurface drainage
under the flat hydraulic gradients which prevail in the Northern Indus Plains. With the
inception of canal irrigation in any area, ground-water levels rose at the rate of one to









two feet per year. This trend prevailed until the water table was sufficiently near land
surface for evaporation losses to balance recharge and reestablish equilibrium between
recharge and discharge.

By 1960 the water table had stabilized within 20 feet of the land surface
beneath most of the irrigated areas of the region (Figure 10). The proximity of the water
table to land surface resulted in serious problems of drainage and attendant soil salinity
which depreciated the productivity of extensive areas. As general planning criteria, and
under present water management and distribution practices, drainage conditions in the
Northern Indus Plains are classified as follows:


Depth to Water Table


Less than 10 feet





10 to 20 feet





Greater than 20 feet


Drainage Conditions


Hazardous. These areas
require drainage relief to
sustain present productivity,
and as a prerequisite to
further development.

Incipient drainage hazards.
Development projects for
these areas must include
provisions for control of
subsurface drainage.

No immediate hazards.
Development of land and
water can proceed with
implementation of drainage
works deferred until required.


Affected Area
1,000 Acres Percent of Area


9,440


8,420


6,050


It should be emphasized that the foregoing is intended as only a general classification to
show the scale of drainage problems in the region. Control of subsurface drainage does
not necessarily require lowering the water table and maintaining it a depths of 10 feet or
more. Successful irrigation can be practiced where the water table is at a depth of 5 feet
or less provided the flux is downward so that salts are removed from the root zone. With
adequate water applications to insure leaching of salts from the root zone, and a pattern
of ground-water circulation that insures deep percolation of the leachate, the depth of
the water table is not a critical factor in drainage.

In summary, conveyance losses and related ground-water recharge clearly are the
central factors in any consideration of water management in the Northern Indus Plains.
Losses from the surface-water distribution system dissipate irrigation supplies, and are the
root cause of massive and widespread drainage and salinity hazards to the irrigated lands.










Under the irrigation regimen, leakage from the irrigation system is the dominant component
of ground-water recharge to the alluvial aquifer which underlies the region, and the
occurrence of ground water is largely determined by the distribution of the canal supplies.

Quality of Ground Water. The chemical quality of ground water reflects its hydro-
logic history. Thus the quality of ground water in the Northern Indus Plains is best con-
sidered in two contexts that of the native or deep water which occurred in the alluvial
aquifer prior to the inception of irrigation, and that of the shallow ground water which has
accumulated in ground-water storage in recent years from seepage from the irrigation
system. There is not a sharp boundary between the shallow and deep ground-water zones.
Throughout the region the quality of ground water from depths of about 80 feet or more
represents the deep ground water except near the major canals where leakage may circulate
to greater depths.

From the standpoint of ground-water development, the deep ground water is most
important; it comprises the bulk of ground water in storage and will be the primary source
of supply to irrigation wells for an indefinite period. The mineral content of the deep
ground water in the Northern Indus Plains ranges from less than 200 to more than 10,000
parts per million (ppm) of dissolved solids. Figure 11 shows the regional variation of the
mineral concentration of the deep ground water. In general, the mineral content increases
with distance from the rivers which were the principal sources of natural recharge. However,
the transition in quality is gradual through the low to moderate range of mineral concen-
tration, and for about 70 percent of the region the ground water contains less than 1,500
ppm of dissolved solids. As described in the following section of this report, 1,500 ppm
is the upper limit of concentration of ground water which is classed as "nonsaline" and
suitable for virtually unrestricted use as irrigation supply in the Northern Indus Plains.

The quality of the shallow ground water is largely controlled by the local environ-
ment, chiefly the proximity of canal recharge and the depth to the water table. Under
these conditions local variations in the quality of the shallow supplies are of about the
same magnitude as regional variations. However, the quality-of-water data for the.
shallow supplies fit a crude regional pattern similar to that of the deep ground water. In
areas where the deep ground water is nonsaline the shallow ground water commonly is also
nonsaline, but the range of concentration of the shallow supplies may extend to more than
3,000 ppm of dissolved solids. On the other hand, where the deep ground water is saline
the shallow supplies typically contain 2,000 to 4,000 ppm of dissolved solids, but the
range of concentration is from less than 1,000 ppm near the major irrigation channels, to
over 8,000 ppm in low-lying areas where the water table is discharging to evaporation.

The quality of the shallow ground water is significant for two reasons. Firstly, it
gives an indication of the chemical nature of recharge to the water table under the existing
irrigation regimen. Changes in the conditions of recharge and the occurrence of ground
water such as will occur in response to reclamation and development activities will further
influence the quality of the shallow supplies. As these activities presumably will involve
increasing irrigation supplies and hence ground-water recharge and control of subsurface
drainage, the net long-term effect probably will be to improve the average quality of the




























I



U









LA



I



I




I-









I


LEGEND
...r.io. rowingg depth to water
I'de .n Feet below land
.. I .960.
E.; .*r.ere depth to water
ir. ess than 10 feet.
Ael, r.ea depth to water
FFLic .: between o1 and 20 teet.
i.'.TrnalJ .' l Boundary
bur'dac r' teadworks
Pr.. ,,.oaI o 'als
'.'-ic-a.' Cuiles and Towns


NORTHERN INDUS PLAINS

DEPTH TO WATER TABLE


DEVELOPMENT AUTHORITY
..C rE G lE.[ B


1" .


2W "2 ~


PESHAWARB
v/
-- f


I I





3'..


r.
a,- 1~


~ic* ~i


0 I KHAN


) .


I
I
I
I
I
I
I
/
I
I
I
I
I
I
I


PIIL 1eRes




S- FI GUIRE













" """r / / /, I
t












""










































SLEGEND
ooU- Iso-gram line.Total dissolved solids
6 1









































.~ -,i // n parts per million (ppm).
Soa lie Zone.








iBarrage or Headworks


'M ic Principal Canals


NORTHERN INDUS PLAINS






QUALITY OF GROUND WATER
QUALITY OF GROUND WATER


WEST PAKI!TAN.,_WATEW AND POWER.DEVEIOPMENT AUTHORITY
..,o a .. we a.8a c. e.nI lnr










shallow ground water. Secondly, the quality of the shallow ground water also is indicative
of the quality of the drainage effluent which will have to be exported from the saline
areas. As much of the drainage will be subject to downstream withdrawals for irrigation
uses, the concentration of the drainage water is of critical importance.

Quality of Ground Water in Relation to Use As Irrigation Supply. The primary
criterion for classifying the quality of irrigation supplies is the mineral concentration of
the water, commonly referred to as salinity and expressed in terms of "parts per million of
total dissolved solids." Secondary criteria are based on the ionic composition of the water -
commonly the relative concentration of sodium expressed as the "sodium absorption ratio"
(SAR), "residual sodium carbonate" (RSC), or "soluble sodium percentage" (SSP), or the
concentration of toxic ions, principally boron.

According to the quality-of-water standards which have been adopted for the
Northern Indus Plains the utility of the ground-water supplies can be classified on the
basis of the primary criterion the mineral content of the water and three general classes
of water have been established. Ground water containing less than 1,500 ppm of dissolved
solids is classified as nonsaline and safe for use under accepted irrigation and water manage-
ment practices, by which it is implied that about one-third of the applied irrigation water
is derived from canal supplies. Under those conditions the maximum concentration of
applied water would be about 1,100 ppm of dissolved solids. Ground water containing
1,500 to 4,000 ppm of dissolved solids is classified as intermediate; use of the intermediate
quality ground water will require dilution with canal supplies, or special water and soil
management practices. Water with a concentration of more than 4,000 ppm of dissolved
solids is classified as saline and unsuitable for economic development for irrigation
supplies under present and assumed future conditions.

The areal distribution of the Saline, Intermediate, and Nonsaline Ground-Water
Zones in the Northern Indus Plains is shown in Figure 11. This is based upon the pattern
of mineralization which has been described for the deep ground water, and assumes that on
the average the same scale of regional variation of quality will apply to the shallow
ground-water supplies. Table 11 gives a summary of land areas within the irrigation
boundaries by canal command and quality-of-water zones. According to these data the
Nonsaline Zone comprises 70 percent of the gross area of the canal commands, the Inter-
mediate Zone 12 percent, and the Saline Zone 18 percent. Assuming a specific yield for
the alluvial aquifer of 0.25, the volume of useful water in ground-water storage to a depth
of 500 feet beneath the canal commands and contiguous riverine areas is about 2,000 maf.
By way of comparison, this is equivalent to about 15 years mean discharge of the Indus,
Jhelum, and Chenab Rivers.

The above does not take into account the shallow ground water of acceptable
quality which occurs within the Saline Zones. As the availability and yield of these
supplies is uncertain, they do not figure in public development, except for drainage.
However, the shallow ground water is susceptible to private development. Shallow wells
which are properly located and managed can provide valuable supplemental irrigation
supplies and drainage relief to much of the lands in the Saline Zones.








Table 11
NORTHERN INDUS PLAINS

SUMMARY OF LAND AREAS
BY
CANAL COMMANDS AND QUALITY OF GROUND WATER ZONES
(All values in 1,000ooo acres)

GROSS AREA IGA) CULTURABLE AREA (CA) CULTURABLE COMMANDED AREA (CCA)

RIVER HEADWORKS CANAL NON- INTER- SALINE NON- INTE SALNE NON- INTER- SALINE
COMMA SALINE MEDIATE SALE TOTAL SALINE MEDIATE TOTAL SALINE MEDIATE ZONE TOTAL
ZONE ZONE OOE ZONE ZONE ZONE
(1) (2) 13) (4) 5) (8) (71 () (9) (10) (11) (12) (131 (141 (IS)

INDUS
Kolobagh


Chasma
Paharpur
Taunso
D.G. Khan
Muzaffargarh


SUBTOTAL Indus River


JHELUM


Mangla


1,627.6 325.5 372.0 2,325.1 1,479. 1 295.8 338.1 2, 113.0


67.3 23.9


17.4 108.6 66.0 23.4 17.0 106.4


486.8 172.7 125.7 785.2
624.5 144.1 32.0 800.6


2,806.2 666.2 547.1 4,019.5


Upper Jhelum 697.1


454.0 161.1 117.2 732.3
567.8 131.0 29.2 728.0


2,566.9 611.3 501.5 3,679.7


0 697.1 I 647.3


0 647.3


1,120.3 227.6 260.2 1,608. 1

64.4 22.8 16.6 103.8


433.6 153.8 111.9 699.3
556.9 128.5 28.6 714.0


2, 175.2 532.7 417.3 3, 125.2






540.8 0 0 540.8


Lower Jhelum 1,077.1 330.1 330.0 1,737.2 990.0 303.4 303.3 1,596.7 929.8 285.0 284.9 1,499.7


SUBTOTAL Jhelum River



CHENAB
Morale
M-R Link
Distributaries
Upper Chenab
BRBD Link
Distributaries
Central Bari
Doob
Upper Dipolpur
Khanki
Lower Chenab


Oadirobad


Trimmu


Rangpur
Haveli


SUBTOTAL -Chenab River



RAVI
Balloki
Lower B
Doab I
Lower Di
Upper Pal
Eastern S
Fordwah
Sidhnoi
Sidhnai
Lower Pa
Lower M
Lower BS


SUBTOTAL -Ravi River



PANJNAD
Panjnad
Abbasia
Ponjnad

SUBTOTAL- Panjnad River


1,774.2 330.1


330.0 2,434.3 1 1,637.3


0 176.8 161.6
0 1,414.5 1,210.3


0 450.0

61.7 881.6
0 352.1


427.4

478.6
307.8


1,554.2 375.7 186.2 2,1116.1 1,342.0


L..C. Feeder 1,003.9 342.3


353.6 18.6
84.5 24.1


5,094.0 1,076.2







1,560.3 265.3
598.8 159.2
1,091.2 45.9
11.4 (a)
348.4 (a)


793. I


332.4 1,678.6


0 372.2
54.6 163.2


634.9 7,605. I


75.0 1,901.4
0 758.0
11.5 1,148.6


124.3 1,135.7 9.5
122.4 470.8 319.1


760.8 115.0 8.8 884.6
186.4 85.4 116.5 388.3
493.0 98.6 166.8 758.4
210.4 (a) 515.2 725.6


5,260.7 769.4 2,141.3 0,171.4


(a) 81.0 130.7 41.5
(a) 665.0 1,546.5 779.8


303.4 303.3 2,244.0 1,470.6 285.0 284.9 2,040.5


0 161.6 106.9
O 1,210.3 1,043.6

O 427.4 427.4


55.9 797.7 324.4 212
0 331.0 300.5 22


142.5 1,805.0 1,203.2 320


260.1 257.5 1,310.7 739.3 260


340.0 17.9 0 357.9
81.7 23.3 52.8 157.8


5,142.5 908.2 508.7 6,559.4







1,277.1 216.8 62.0 1,555.9
560.2 148.9 0 709.1
1,019.9 42.6 10.6 1,064.1


0 0 106.9
0 0 1,043.6

0 0 427.4

.0 45.0 581.4
.6 0 323.1


.5 142.5 1,666.2


.1 257.5 1,256.9


329.7 17.4 0 347.1
81.7 23.3 52.8 157.8


4,556.7 855.9 497.8 5,910.4


1,251.0 213.7
521.5 138.6
1,010.1 42.6


(0) 933.0 942.5 9.5 (a)
(a) 112.1 431.2 316.0 (a)


685.1 103.6 7.9 796.6
163.8 75.1 102.4 341.3
450.5 90. 1 152.5 693.1
170.9 (a) 418.4 589.3


4,647.1 677.1 1,798.9 7, 123.1


(a) 67.7 109.2
(a) 588.2 I, 368.0


931.2 0 746.0 1,677.2 821.3 0 655.9 1,477.2


61.1 1,525.8
0 660.1
10.6 1,063.3
933.0 942.5
111.0 427.0


685.1 103.6 7.9 796.6
158.9 72.8 99.3 331.0
422.2 84.5 142.9 649.6
165.9 (a) 406.0 571.9


4,540.2 655.8 1,771.8 6,967.8






41.5 (0) 67.7 109.2
761.0 (a) 574.0 1,335.0


802.5 0 641.7 1,444.2


TOTAL- Northern Zone 16,666.3 2, 41.9 4,399.3 23,907.5 14,815.1 2,500.0 3,768.3 21,083.4 13,545.2 2,329.4 3,613.5 19,488.1


NOTES: Non-Saline Zone Mineral concentration of ground water less than 1500 ppm total dissolved solids.
Intermediate Zone Mineral concentration of ground water ranges from 1500 to 4000 ppm total dissolved solids.
Saline Zone Mineral concentration of ground water exceeds 4000 ppm total dissolved solids.
(a) Intermediate zone acreage included in saline zone. (b) Includes Fazil Shah, Abdul Hakim, Hithar, Kot, and Korango Distributaries
(c) Includes Coim Canal and ports of Mailsi and Bahowal Canals above S-M-B Link.


I 76.8
1,414.5

450.0

529.0
327.5


ori
b)
palpur
kpattoat
odiqia




kpattan
ailsi
ihawal


49.7
881.5









In summary, the alluvial aquifer is a vital feature in the resources inventory of the
Northern Indus Plains. The nearly universal availability of ground-water supplies for irri-
gation is the major factor, and the aquifer is highly susceptible to management practices
which enhance its economic utility. Withdrawals from the reservoir can be regulated to
satisfy irrigation requirements, control subsurface drainage, and salvage rejected recharge
and discharge to nonbeneficial uses. Under conditions of ultimate development of the
water resources of the Northern Indus Plains, the long-term yield of the aquifer will be
determined by the magnitude of surface-water diversions, from which most ground-water
recharge is derived. But in the relatively short run measured in decades while surface
supplies are being equated to uses, the aquifer will support a heavy overdraft to meet
irrigation requirements. The economic advantages of ground-water mining are described
in Volume II.

Development of Ground Water. Large-scale development of ground-water resources
began in 1960 with the implementation of the Salinity Control and Reclamation Program for
the Northern Indus Plains. Project 1 in central Rechna Doab went into full operation in
1963, and was followed by units of SCARP 2 for Chaj Doab in 1965 and 1966. Other sub-
projects of SCARP 2, and of SCARP 3 in lower Thal Doab, and SCARP4 in upper Rechna
Doab are under construction and scheduled for completion in 1967 and early 1968. With
the completion of the ongoing projects the SCARP program will comprise about 4,900
tubewells serving more than 3 million acres. Summary data for these works are given in
Table 12. The locations of the projects are shown in Figure 4.

The publicity attending the WAPDA program also has spurred development of
ground-water supplies by private interests. The statistics for private development are
imperfect, but it is clear that private well supplies were not a significant factor in irrigation
in the Northern Indus Plains prior to 1960. In that year there were fewer than 7,000 pri-
vate tubewells in the Northern Indus Plains serving less than 700,000 acres. Since then
the installation of tubewells has accelerated markedly, and approximately 33,000 were in
operation by the end of 1965.

The density of private tubewells in the Nonsaline and Intermediate Zones of the
region at the close of 1965 is shown in Figure 12 by canal command for the areas of signifi-
cant development. Figure 12 also gives for each canal command the total acreage and the
percent of the Nonsaline and Intermediate Zones served by private tubewells. Nearly 90
percent of the private tubewells in the Northern Indus Plains are located in Rechna and
Bari Doabs and the Bahawalpur Plain. Private development in Chaj Doab has been suppressed
by the limited availability of fresh ground water and by the inception of public projects.
In Thal Doab and the Right Bank Indus areas private development has not become a signifi-
cant factor in irrigation supply, presumably because existing canal supplies are not yet
fully utilized.

Private tubewells are highly profitable to their owners, and in most situations are
fully amortized within one to two years. However, the costs of installation are beyond the
means of all but the most prosperous cultivators commonly those with holdings of 50 acres
or more. Participation of the cultivators with small holdings also is hampered by distribu-
tion problems. As the small holdings commonly are fragmented, a cultivator may be unable




Table 12


SUMMARY DATA FOR ON-GOING PROJECTS


Year of Installed Annual
Location Initial No. of Capacity Area Served Pumpage
Development Tubewells (cusecs) (acres) (maf)
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)


SCARP 1 Central Rechna Doab


SCARP 2 Chaj Doab
Lalian Unit
Mona Unit
Khadir Unit
Upper Jhelum Sub-project
Subtotal


SCARP 3 Lower Thal Doab
Alipur Unit
Kot Adu Unit
Subtotal


SCARP 4 Upper Rechna Doab
Mangtanwala Unit

Total


1963



1964
1965
1967
1968




1968
1968




1967


1,980



163
138
213
884
1,561



540
475
1,015



300

4,856


5,636



577
468
824
3,280
5, 149



2,003
1,696
3,699



1,260

15,744


1,133,000



123,000
100,000
153,000
647,000
1,023,000



399,000
326,000
725,000



141,000

3,022,000


Note: Column 6 gives the effective annual pumpage for irrigation uses according to the project design estimates.


1.640



0.193
0.157
0.240
1.016
1.606



0.658
0.538




0.436

4.878



























I, ....


>2a


1,4-6 (4 r6ooi
[45, 00


LEGEND
r ;.. r., i i r...,.. ris per 1,000 acre
.r .. i, ... nd intermediate ( a
39.0 00 I 'i . ly tubewells.
S---I-....' i, 'e CA. ond inter-
Ae : .: .ed by tubewells

Si ,,- ,, r ,,n-saline and
-- ... T..1 .i.. -.s are served.

S. .line and inter-
-- .e served

-u..'. ., , n-soline and
a. s are served.
.. Irrurr.g u .I Buu. ddary

r .- r. i r i. l.aurkS

h- ... l a l ,: TO W'll $

3 .. 5 I .. i; r I Towns


-I


a Ca


wST PAKISTAN WATER AND POWER DEVELOPMENT AUTHORITY
TIPTON AND KALMIACH, INC.-ENGINEERS


I C A T E A I i1.1 -I. : P .A i N S


PRIVATE TUBEWELL DEVELOPMENT
(1965)


.~
.

R/


;'$
iii


I _,-_


| ;"


7 *









to command all of his parcels of land with a single well, or to serve some of his holdings if
he has to cross a neighbors land. Moreover, in order for a small landholder to amortize
his investment in a reasonable period of time, he must sell water to his neighbors, and
again fragmentation and the attendant problems of distribution are restraints.

As described in Volume Ill, other marginal elements also will interfere with private
development. The net effect of the various restraints is to impose a practical ceiling on the
level of private development which is likely to be attained in the foreseeable future.
Studies of private development in Rechna and Bari Doabs and the Bahawalpur Plain indicate
that in a typical area the ceiling will be reached when private tubewell supplies are serving
about 40 percent of the CA of the Nonsaline and Intermediate Zones. According to these
studies, private development is past its peak in most areas of Rechna and Bari Doabs and the
Bahawalpur Plain, and will become negligible after about 1970, unless an effective program
of government subsidies is instigated. The projections of private development, given in
Table 13, show 33,200 private wells serving 2.7 million acres in the region at the close of
1965, increasing to nearly 50,000 wells serving 3.9 million acres by 1970, but only to
about 55,000 wells serving 4.2 million acres by 1975.

Table 14 summarizes the total ground-water development which is completed or
reasonably assured under both public and private programs. Taking into account SCARP 1,
and the subprojects of SCARP's 2, 3, and 4 which are completed or under construction, and
anticipated private development, the lands served by ground-water supplies will increase
from 4.1 million acres in 1965, to 6.5 million acres in 1970, and to 6.8 million acres in
1975.


LAND

The land resources of the Northern Indus Plains impose no significant restraints on
agricultural development. Rather, culturable land is abundant in relation to all other
physical resources. Of the total area of 24 million acres within present irrigation bound-
aries, nearly 21 million acres are classified as culturable. And of the culturable area,
19.5 million acres have been leveled and otherwise developed for irrigation and are
commanded by canal works.

Land and Land Forms

The irrigable lands of the Northern Indus Plains occupy most of the vast alluvial
plain extending from the Potwar Plateau and the Salt Range in the north to Gudu Barrage
in the south, and from the Sulaiman Range on the west to the borders of Jammu, India, and
the Thar Desert on the east. The irrigable zone is approximately 420 miles in length and
from 50 to 250 miles in width, encompassing a gross area of about 32 million acres.

The Indus Plain is virtually flat, having an average slope of about one foot per mile
to the southwest. The plain is dissected by the Indus River and its four principal tributaries -
the Jhelum, Chenab, Rabi, and Sutlej and by the remnants of former river channels and









to command all of his parcels of land with a single well, or to serve some of his holdings if
he has to cross a neighbors land. Moreover, in order for a small landholder to amortize
his investment in a reasonable period of time, he must sell water to his neighbors, and
again fragmentation and the attendant problems of distribution are restraints.

As described in Volume Ill, other marginal elements also will interfere with private
development. The net effect of the various restraints is to impose a practical ceiling on the
level of private development which is likely to be attained in the foreseeable future.
Studies of private development in Rechna and Bari Doabs and the Bahawalpur Plain indicate
that in a typical area the ceiling will be reached when private tubewell supplies are serving
about 40 percent of the CA of the Nonsaline and Intermediate Zones. According to these
studies, private development is past its peak in most areas of Rechna and Bari Doabs and the
Bahawalpur Plain, and will become negligible after about 1970, unless an effective program
of government subsidies is instigated. The projections of private development, given in
Table 13, show 33,200 private wells serving 2.7 million acres in the region at the close of
1965, increasing to nearly 50,000 wells serving 3.9 million acres by 1970, but only to
about 55,000 wells serving 4.2 million acres by 1975.

Table 14 summarizes the total ground-water development which is completed or
reasonably assured under both public and private programs. Taking into account SCARP 1,
and the subprojects of SCARP's 2, 3, and 4 which are completed or under construction, and
anticipated private development, the lands served by ground-water supplies will increase
from 4.1 million acres in 1965, to 6.5 million acres in 1970, and to 6.8 million acres in
1975.


LAND

The land resources of the Northern Indus Plains impose no significant restraints on
agricultural development. Rather, culturable land is abundant in relation to all other
physical resources. Of the total area of 24 million acres within present irrigation bound-
aries, nearly 21 million acres are classified as culturable. And of the culturable area,
19.5 million acres have been leveled and otherwise developed for irrigation and are
commanded by canal works.

Land and Land Forms

The irrigable lands of the Northern Indus Plains occupy most of the vast alluvial
plain extending from the Potwar Plateau and the Salt Range in the north to Gudu Barrage
in the south, and from the Sulaiman Range on the west to the borders of Jammu, India, and
the Thar Desert on the east. The irrigable zone is approximately 420 miles in length and
from 50 to 250 miles in width, encompassing a gross area of about 32 million acres.

The Indus Plain is virtually flat, having an average slope of about one foot per mile
to the southwest. The plain is dissected by the Indus River and its four principal tributaries -
the Jhelum, Chenab, Rabi, and Sutlej and by the remnants of former river channels and








Table 13
NORTHERN INDUS PLAINS


PROJECTIONS OF PRIVATE TUBEWELL DEVELOPMENT


1965 I 1970 I 9 75
AREA SERVED AREA SERVED I AREA SERVED
AREAS BY PROJECTS NUMBER AREA AS PERCENT OF NUMBER AREA AS PERCENT OF NUMBER AREA AS PERCENT OF
RECLAMATION AREA(a) RECLAMATION AREA(a) RECLAMATION AREA(a)
OR CANAL COMMAND OF SERVED OF SERVED OF SERVED
NON-SALINE TOTAL NON-SALINE TOTAL NON-SALINE TOTAL
TUBEWELLS(IOOO ACRES) AND TUBEWELLS (000 ACRES) AND TUBEWELLS I000 ACRES) AND
INTERMEDIATE AREA INTERMEDIATE AREA INTERMEDIATE AREA
AREA AREA AREA
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (II) (12) (13)


RECHNA DOAB:
UPPER RECHNA 7,262 383 21.3 21.3 1 1,800 590 32.8 32.8 14,800 700 39.0 39.0
LOWER RECHNA 3,238 327 19.0 15.0 4,600 418 24.3 19.2 4,800 459 26.6 21.1
SUBTOTAL RECHNA 10,500 710 20.2 17.9 16,400 1,008 28.6 25.4 19,600 1,159 32.9 29.1

BARI DOAB:
CENTRAL BARI DOAB 1,798 138 19.9 18.9 2,830 230 33.3 31.3 3,051 252 36.5 34.3
UPPER DIPALPUR 507 39 I 1.8 I 1.8 1,609 86 26.0 26.0 1,810 99 30.0 30.0
LOWER BARI DOAB 4,291 378 26.0 24.9 5,751 491 33.8 32.4 5,800 502 34.5 33.1
LOWER DIPALPUR 1,890 180 25.7 25.7 2,98 1 267 38.2 38.2 3,1 26 28 1 40.2 40.2
UPPER PAKPATTAN 4,296 335 31.8 31.5 5,294 396 37.6 37.2 5,316 399 37.8 37.5
SIDHNAI 1,984 167 21.2 21.0 2,352 201 25.5 25.2 2,364 20 1 25.5 25.2
LOWER PAKPATTAN 829 80 33.8 23.8 853 86 36.3 25.6 853 86 36.3 25.6
MAILSI 1,522 158 29.2 23.3 1,570 170 31.8 25.1 1,580 171 32.0 25.2
SUBTOTAL BARI 17,117 1,475 25.4 23.9 23,240 1,927 33.3 31.3 23,900 1,99 1 34.4 32.3

BAHAWALPUR PLA IN
FORDWAH 410 46 1 4.4 10.6 690 78 24.4 1 8.1 724 83 26.0 19.3
BAHAWAL 225 25 14.6 4.3 370 42 24.6 7.3 386 44 25.7 7.6
PANJNAD- ABBAS I A 1,026 119 14.5 8.1 11780 201 24.5 13.7 11890 213 25.9 14.6
SUBTOTAL BAHAWALPUR 1,661 190 14.4 7.6 2,840 321 24.4 12.9 3,000 340 25.9 13.7

UNSPECIFIED AREAS (b) 3,922 377 5.2 4.5 6,920 650 8.9 7.8 8,200 750 10.3 9.0

TOTAL-
NORTHERN INDUS PLAINS 33,200 2,752 16.1 13.3 49,400 3,906 18.8 18.0 54,700 4,240 24.7 20.4



NOTES:
(a) Reclamation Area comprises C.A. of Non-Saline Zone
and C.C.A. of Intermediate and Saline Zones.
(b) Includes Central Rechno (S.C.A.R.P.-I), Thal Doab,
Chaj Doab and Right Bank Indus.






Table 14


AREAS SERVED BY ON-GOING SCARP PROJECTS AND PRIVATE DEVELOPMENT
(Projected to 1975)


Area Served 1965 Area Served 1970 Area Served 1975
Areas by Projects Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent
or Canal Commands 1000 of N-S & of Total 1000 of N-S & of Total 1000 of N-S & of Total
Acres Int. Zones RA Acres Int. Zones RA Acres Int.Zones RA
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10)


Central Rechna Doab
Chaj Doab
Lower Thai Doab
Upper Rechna Doab
t Lower Rechna Doab
Paninad-Abbasia
Upper Dipalpur
Central Bari
Lower Bari
Sidhnai
Mailsi
Bahawal
Eastern Sadiqia-Fordwah
Lower Pakpattan
Lower Dipalpur
Upper Pakpattan
Other Areas
Total:


1,133
412
82
383
327
119
39
138
378
167
158
25
46
80
180
335
106
4,108


100
21
8
21
19
14
12
20
26
21
29
15
14
34
26
32
4
24


1,133
1,156
765
649
418
201
86
230
491
201
170
42
78
86
267
396
180
6,549


100
60
73
36
24
24
26
33
34
26
32
25
24
36
38
38
7
38


100
52
71
36
19
14
26
31
32
25
25
7
6
26
38
37
6
32


1,133
1,183
772
749
459
213
99
252
502
201
171
44
83
86
281
399
219
6,846


100
62
73
41
27
26
30
36
35
26
32
26
25
36
40
38
9
40


100
54
71
41
21
15
30
34
33
25
25
8
6
26
40
37
8
33


NOTES: Cols. (3), (6), and (9) based on CA of Nonsaline Zones and CCA of Intermediate Zones. Reclamation area (RA)
comprised of CA of Nonsaline Zone and CCA of Intermediate and Saline Zones. Other areas include Thal Canal
and Right Bank Indus areas.









a few nonperennial drainageways. The lands of the alluvial plain, including the Thal,
Chaj, Rechna, and Bari Doabs, the valley and piedmont areas on the right bank of the Indus,
and the desert area on the left bank of the Sutlej River can be conveniently subdivided into
six principal land forms:

1. Active flood plains old bars, levees, and river beds that are inundated during
most monsoon seasons. The active flood plains comprise about 1.9 million acres,
or 6 percent of the region.

2. Abandoned flood plains old bars, levees, ox-bow lakes, and channel scarps
which border the active flood plains but commonly are 5 to 15 feet higher in
elevation. The abandoned flood plains comprise 5.2 million acres, or 16 per-
cent of the region.

3. Cover flood plains fairly level, almost featureless lands which parallel the
rivers in elevated broad belts up to 20 miles wide and are composed of recent
alluvium deposited by sheet flooding over former abandoned flood plains. The
cover flood plains comprise about 8.5 million acres, or 26 percent of the region.

4. Bar uplands flat and featureless areas underlain by older alluvium occupying
the elevated central portions of Chaj, Rechna, and Bari Doabs, commonly
bordered by old scarps 5 to 20 feet high. The bar uplands comprise 4.4 million
acres, or 14 percent of the region.

5. Sand plains level or gently rolling sandy areas composed of alluvium derived
from Indus system rivers and transported mainly by the wind to their present
locations. The sand plains comprise 7.5 million acres, or 23 percent of the
region.

6. Piedmont plains stratified flat beds of alluvial outwash originating in the Salt
Range and Sulaiman Range and terminating abruptly at the flood plains of the
Indus and Jhelum Rivers. The piedmont plains and related but unclassified land
forms comprise about 5 million acres, or 16 percent of the region.


Soils and Soil Characteristics

Record high crop yields obtained in recent years and assessment of inherent charac-
teristics indicate that the soils of the Northern Indus Plains have as high a production capa-
city as any large body of irrigated soils in the world higher than the soils of southwestern
United States, a region frequently used as a standard of comparison for irrigated areas.

The soils of the Punjab are medium to coarse in texture and are adapted to a wide
range of crops: the subsoils are easily drained; water-holding capacities are generally
favorable for irrigated crops; wind and water erosion are minimal; reclamation of most of
the salt-affected lands only involves simple leaching practices; resistance to deterioration
by marginal quality irrigation water is high; and of the major essential nutrient elements
only nitrogen and phosphorous are inadequate for modern standards of crop production.
28









The soils have been derived from the relatively homogeneous alluvium of the Indus
River system. Winds, floods, and changes in the courses of rivers have created mixed
patterns of deposition, but few significantly different soils have been formed. And as the
principal soil developing factors temperature, rainfall, vegetation, microorganisms,
relief, erosion, and human activity have modified the characteristics of the original
alluvium only slightly, most of the soils of the region are immature i.e., are without
well-defined profile characteristics.

The native vegetation is sparse, and owing to the high temperatures organic matter
decomposes rapidly. Thus the organic matter and nitrogen contents of the soils commonly
are quite low.


Soil Classification

For irrigation planning purposes, the soils of the Northern Indus Plains are best
classified by their subsoil textural characteristics; these in turn describe the drainage
characteristics. WASID has mapped five principal soil series groups in the region on the
basis of the average texture of the subsoil from a depth of approximately 6 to 72 inches.
The five soil series groups are briefly described as follows:

1. Jhang, the coarsest soil series, has a relatively low water-holding capacity
and thus is somewhat limited in crop adaptation and in its ability to support
high crop yields. Except where surplus water is available, the Jhang soils are
best suited for deep-rooted, drought-resistant crops. High crop yields require
a careful water management program, including a relatively high frequency of
irrigation. Jhang soils comprise about 15 percent of the culturable area of the
region.

2. Farida soils are moderately coarse textured with good internal drainage.
Farida soils rarely display severe salinity and alkali problems. They are
adapted to the production of almost all crops except rice, but because of their
moderate water-holding capacities are best suited to the deeper rooted crops
with moderate to low water requirements. Farida soils occupy about 30 percent
of the culturable area of the region.

3. Buchiana soils are medium to coarse textured in the surface and medium textured
in the subsoil to a depth of 6 feet or more. Consequently, these soils have
moderate to low infiltration and permeability rates, generally favorable internal
drainage characteristics, and relatively high water-holding capacities.
Buchiana soils comprise 40 percent of the culturable area of the region.

4. and 5. Chuharkana and Nokhar series are fine textured soils with high water-
holding capacities, moderate organic matter content and high inherent fertility.
However, they are difficult to cultivate, have low infiltration rates and
restricted internal drainage thus a high percentage of these soils is affected









by salinity and alkali. Chuharkana and Nokhar soils can be farmed success-
fully under good soil and water management practices; they are best suited for
rice, wheat, cotton, and fodder crops. Soils of the Chuharkana and Nokhar
series occupy 10 percent of the region.

Chemical and physical properties of the soils and the distribution of the soil classes by sub-
areas of the region are given in Table 15.


Land Development

As described in the previous section on water resources and listed in Table 11, the
canal systems in the Northern Indus Plains serve a gross area (GA) of nearly 24 million
acres (ma). The culturable area (CA) within the irrigation boundaries is more than 21
million acres, of which approximately 19.5 million acres is classified as culturable
commanded area (CCA). For the purposes of this report the term reclamation area (RA) is
used to define the area which can be incorporated into the SCARP program that is, the
area which can be reclaimed or developed under the ground-water program without extend-
ing the existing canal commanded area. For a given canal command, therefore, the RA
equals the sum of the CA of the Nonsaline Zone, and the CCA of the Intermediate and
Saline Zones. The RA of the Northern Zone is 20.8 million acres.

Essentially all of the CCA in Chaj, Rechna, and Bari Doabs is at a relatively
advanced stage of development i.e., present cropping intensities range from about 70 to
120 percent and average about 100 percent. The lands are fully provided with water
courses, and are bunded, leveled, and otherwise prepared for increases in cropping inten-
sities and productivity. Land development is somewhat less advanced in the more remote
portions of the Bahawal Plains and the cropping intensities are lower, averaging about 70
percent. In Thai and the Indus Right Bank areas, where achieved levels of cropping inten-
sity are less than 50 percent, only about half the CCA is adequately prepared for a high
level of development.

As described in the preceding section, the more progressive and wealthy farmers
have augmented their surface-water supplies, particularly in Bari and Rechna Doabs, by
installing approximately 33,000 low capacity tubewells, thereby increasing cropping
intensities and expanding the acreage under cultivation. The implications of private tube-
well installation on present production and future development are discussed in Part II.


Salinity and Alkali

Insufficient irrigation supplies and inadequate subsurface drainage together and
separately contribute to the development of saline and alkali soil conditions. As drainage
hazards are widespread except in Bari Doab (Figure 10), and underwatering has been a
characteristic of most irrigation activities in the Northern Indus Plains, it follows that
salinity and alkali problems are ubiquitous over the region.









by salinity and alkali. Chuharkana and Nokhar soils can be farmed success-
fully under good soil and water management practices; they are best suited for
rice, wheat, cotton, and fodder crops. Soils of the Chuharkana and Nokhar
series occupy 10 percent of the region.

Chemical and physical properties of the soils and the distribution of the soil classes by sub-
areas of the region are given in Table 15.


Land Development

As described in the previous section on water resources and listed in Table 11, the
canal systems in the Northern Indus Plains serve a gross area (GA) of nearly 24 million
acres (ma). The culturable area (CA) within the irrigation boundaries is more than 21
million acres, of which approximately 19.5 million acres is classified as culturable
commanded area (CCA). For the purposes of this report the term reclamation area (RA) is
used to define the area which can be incorporated into the SCARP program that is, the
area which can be reclaimed or developed under the ground-water program without extend-
ing the existing canal commanded area. For a given canal command, therefore, the RA
equals the sum of the CA of the Nonsaline Zone, and the CCA of the Intermediate and
Saline Zones. The RA of the Northern Zone is 20.8 million acres.

Essentially all of the CCA in Chaj, Rechna, and Bari Doabs is at a relatively
advanced stage of development i.e., present cropping intensities range from about 70 to
120 percent and average about 100 percent. The lands are fully provided with water
courses, and are bunded, leveled, and otherwise prepared for increases in cropping inten-
sities and productivity. Land development is somewhat less advanced in the more remote
portions of the Bahawal Plains and the cropping intensities are lower, averaging about 70
percent. In Thai and the Indus Right Bank areas, where achieved levels of cropping inten-
sity are less than 50 percent, only about half the CCA is adequately prepared for a high
level of development.

As described in the preceding section, the more progressive and wealthy farmers
have augmented their surface-water supplies, particularly in Bari and Rechna Doabs, by
installing approximately 33,000 low capacity tubewells, thereby increasing cropping
intensities and expanding the acreage under cultivation. The implications of private tube-
well installation on present production and future development are discussed in Part II.


Salinity and Alkali

Insufficient irrigation supplies and inadequate subsurface drainage together and
separately contribute to the development of saline and alkali soil conditions. As drainage
hazards are widespread except in Bari Doab (Figure 10), and underwatering has been a
characteristic of most irrigation activities in the Northern Indus Plains, it follows that
salinity and alkali problems are ubiquitous over the region.









Table 15


SUMMARY OF WASID SOIL SURVEYS

A. Aereal Distribution
Bahawalpur Total
Soil Series Group Thai Doab Chaj Doab Rechna Doab Bari Doab Plain Northern Indus Plains(a)
(1000 acres) (1000 acres) (1000 acres) (1000 acres) (1000 acres) (1000 acres) (percent)
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)

Jhang 1,231.8 316.5 784.9 554.8 575.0 3,463.0 14.7
Farida 1,549.7 681.6 2,294.4 1,109.9 1,237.1 6,908.7 29.4
Buchiana 516.6 900.7 1,871.8 4,508.9 1,560.6 9,358.6 39.8
Chuharkana 158.9 438.2 905.7 485.6 410.6 2,399.0 10.2
Nokhar 0 24.3 60.4 0 0 84.7 0.5
Unclassified 516.6 73.0 120.8 277.5 287.5 1,275.4 5.4
Gross Area Surveyed'() 3,973.6 2,0 6,936.7 4,106.8 23,084 T


B. Mechanical Analysis
Moisture Cation Exchange Organic Matter
Soil Series Group Depth Soil Composition (%) Equivalent Capacity Content
(inches) Sand Silt Clay (%) (meq/100 gm) (%)
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)

Jhang 0- 6 86.4 10.4 3.2 4.9 5.6 0.5
(Loamy Sand) 6-12 82.2 13.0 4.8 8.1 7.6 0.4
12-24 79.9 13.7 6.4 9.2 9.4 0.5
24-36 77.8 10.4 11.8 9.7 10.1 0.5
36-56 74.5 16.0 9.5 13.6 8.8 0.3

Farida 0- 6 61.1 25.1 13.8 12.1 8.6 0.4
(Fine Sandy Loam) 6-12 55.8 30.6 13.6 15.8 6.8 0.3
12-24 57.0 38.7 16.6 17.7 7.8 0.3
24-39 55.0 32.3 12.7 18.6 8.6 0.4
39-49 49.4 41.4 9.2 20.4 6.3 0.3

Buchiana 0- 6 44.1 40.7 15.2 22.1 16.0 0.4
(Loam) 6-13 44.1 36.4 19.5 21.4 13.5 0.3
13-20 33.2 51.7 15.1 23.5 13.1 0.2
20-42 27.7 57.8 14.5 25.1 12.8 0.4
42-51 46.1 40.0 13.9 22.9 11.3 0.4

Chuharkana 0- 6 30.2 38.0 31.8 27.8 25.6 0.4
(Clay) 6-12 21.2 40.0 38.8 26.5 26.0 0.2
12-21 18.7 40.6 40.7 25.3 28.2 0.3
21-36 19.3 43.0 37.7 24.8 25.9 0.3


C. Chemical Analysis
Sample Depth (inches)
Soil Series Group Property(c) 0- 6 6-12 12-24 24-36 36- 4 48-60 60-72
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

Jhang, Normal ECe 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5
(Sandy Loam) SARe 3 6 7 6 4 5 5
Jhang, Saline-Alkali ECe 1.6 2.2 1.6 2.0 1.1 1.3 1.3
(Fine Sandy Loam) SARe 215 29 17 19 9 11 13
Farida, Normal ECe 0.7 0.5 0.9 0:5 0.7 0.5 0.5
(Sandy Loam) SARe 2.3 1.6 3.3 1.5 2.0 2.1 2.1
Farida, Saline-Alkali ECe 2.5 5.5 4.4 3.4 2.5 2.8 1.8
(Fine Sandy Loam) SARe 29 47 46 44 46 22 15
Buchiana, Normal ECe 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5
(Fine Sandy Loam) SARe 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 2.2 4.3 3.2
Buchiana, Saline-Alkali ECe 1.4 1.1 1.4 1.4 4.2 3.0 2.1
(Loam) SARe 15 10 10 12 36 30 8
Chuharkana, Normal ECe 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
(Loam) SARe 3.5 3.8 2.5 2.0 2.3 2.2 2.3
Chuharkana, Saline Alkali ECe 5.0 4.5 4.2 2.3 1.1 0.9 0.9
(Loam) SARe 19 18 13 7 5 5 4
Nokhar, Normal ECe 0.8 0.7 2.0 2.9 2.1 0.7
(Clay Loam) SARe 8 7 10 5 5 5
Nokhar, Saline-Alkali ECe 2.5 2.0 1.6 0.7 0.4 0.7 0.6
(Clay) SAR, 15 12 10 4 3 3 2
(a) Not including Right Bank Indus. (c) ECe = Electrical conductivity of saturation extract and
(b) Does not include areas surveyed that are outside existing canal systems. SARe = Sodium Adsorption Ration of saturation extract.









The salinity status of the soils of the region has been assessed and the soils classified
on the basis of visual reconnaissance studies carried out during the WASID soil surveys.
WASID also has studied the salinity-alkali status of the soils of a number of areas by labora-
tory analysis of soil samples collected from boreholes located on a one square mile grid, and
has classified the soils in accordance with the laboratory criteria used by the U. S. Salinity
Laboratory. The results of both the visual and laboratory classifications are given in Table
16. By both methods of study a relatively high percentage of the lands is classified as salt-
affected about 30 percent according to the visual survey, and 40 percent as indicated by
the laboratory results. Also according to the laboratory data practically all of the salt-
affected lands exhibit alkali conditions to some degree.

As judged from inspection of affected areas, interpretation of the WASID and other
laboratory data, and results obtained from field reclamation trails by the Irrigation Depart-
ment, two-thirds or more of the salt-affected lands can be reclaimed by conventional
leaching techniques. Approximately one-fourth of the salt-affected lands will require pro-
longed leaching, or leaching plus incorporation of organic matter for reclamation; and
about 10 percent or less of the affected lands will require chemical amendments, such as
gypsum, coupled with skilled reclamation practices.

The implications of the salinity-alkali hazards on present agriculture and future
reclamation activities are described in Part II.


HUMAN RESOURCES
The census of 1961 counted 42.9 million persons in West Pakistan of which 25.9
million reside in the districts comprising the Northern Indus Plains region. According to the
census data, later adjusted upward for probable undercounting, the average population
density in West Pakistan was 138 persons per square mile, and in the Northern Indus Plains
region 376 persons per square mile. There is a high correlation between population density
and agriculture productivity. Thus the intensively cropped districts of Chaj, Rechna, and
Bari Doabs have population densities in excess of 500 persons per square mile, while the
recently developed, less intensively cropped areas of Thai Doab, D. I. Khan and D. G. Khan
have less than 200 persons per square mile (Figure 13).

The average yearly increase in population between 1951 and 1961 was estimated to
be 2.4 percent. The projected rate of population increase for the period 1961-1985 is
2.6 percent, compounded annually, but this may well rise above 3 percent if present trends
in mortality and fertility rates are sustained. Approximately 85 percent of the population
is classified as rural, but urban population is increasing at about twice the rate of the rural.
This trend is less an indication of urban economic opportunity than a reflection of the
inability of traditional agriculture to cope with rapid population growth.

The burgeoning population of the region commonly is cited as one of the major
obstacles to development of a viable economy. This pessimistic viewpoint is based on the
premise that population increases in proportion to economic growth, particularly in the
agriculture sector, always leaving the economy in the same relative position. That was
the experience of Pakistan during the years 1949 to 1959 when the agriculture sector






Table 16


SUMMARY OF WASID LAND CLASSIFICATION SURVEYS


Bahawalpur Total
Description Thai Doab Chaj Doab Rechna Doab Bari Doab Plain Northern Indus Plains(a)
(1000 acres) (1000 acres) (1000 acres) (1000 acres) (1000 acres) (1000 acres) (percent)
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)


Soil Salinity Classification:(b)
S1 Non-saline 2,821.2
S2 Slightly saline 397.4
S3 Moderately saline 119.2
S4 Highly sa) ie 119.2
Unclassified l 516.6
Gross Area
Classified 3,973.6


Soil Salinity-Alkali
Normal
Saline
Saline-Alkali
Non-saline Alkal
(Number of bores)

Topography (Cut and
None
Less than 2 feet
More than 2 feet
Depression
Unclassified


1,606.7
511.2
121.7
121.7
73.0

2,434.3


Classification:(d)
2,026.5 2,142.2
198.7 97.4
1,430.5 73.0
i 317.9 121.7
(1,176) (426)

Fill Requirements):
2,066.3 2,215.2
556.3 121.7
1,192.1 12.2
0 12.2
158.9 73.0


4,226.6
905.6
362.3
422.7
120.8

6,038.0


3,019.0
603.8
905.7
1,509.5
(1,411)


5,434.1
362.3
60.4
60.4
120.8


4,786.3
1,179.2
277.5
416.2
277.5

6,936.7


4,508.9
346.8
1,456.7
624.3
(8,325)


6,381.7
138.7
69.4
69.4
277.5


2,915.9
492.8
123.2
451.7
123.2

4,106.8


2,176.6
287.5
1,314.2
328.5
(5,509)


3,367.6
287.5
328.5
0
123.2


16,356.7
3,486.2
1,003.9
1,531.5
1,111.1

23,489.4


13,873.2
1,534.2
5,180.1
2,901.9
(16,847)


19,464.9
1,466.5
1,662.6
142.0
753.4


69.7
14.8
4.3
6.5
4.7

100.0


59.0
6.5
22.1
12.4
100.0


82.9
6.2
7.1
0.6
3.2
100.0


Not including Right Bank Indus.
Visually estimated by WASID.
Does not include areas surveyed that are outside existing canal systems.
Laboratory analysis by WASID, classified by U. S. Salinity Laboratory criteria.









actually trailed population increases and the economic growth of the country only kept
pace with population because of the higher rates of growth in the industrial and service
sectors of the economy. However, according to the Third Five-Year Plan of the Government
of Pakistan, during the last five-year period the agriculture sector showed an annual com-
pound rate of growth exceeding 3 percent and the gross national product increased 5.2
percent. The rate of growth in the large-scale industrial sector was 13.0 percent but this
did not make a significant impact on the overall growth owing to the small weight of this
sector. From the preceding description of the resources of the Northern Indus Plains it
seems evident that, with proper direction and impetus, the agricultural economy of the
region can grow at a far faster rate than population. It is also evident that rapid, intensive
development of agriculture will require a large labor force in lieu of mechanization which
is too costly to introduce at the present level of development. Accordingly, the population
of the Northern Indus Plains, which is primarily rural and traditionally oriented toward
agricultural pursuits, comprises a positive asset to any program of agricultural development.
This is in contrast to some developing areas in which there is a lack of experienced and
competent farmers.

As agriculture develops and becomes more efficient the percentage of total popula-
tion required on the farms will decrease. However, as a result of a productive agriculture
sector other economic sectors will develop rapidly, providing increasing opportunities for
productive labor in nonrural activities.


INFRASTRUCTURE

Although relatively crude by the standards of advanced agricultural areas, the
agricultural infrastructure in West Pakistan probably is overdeveloped in relation to the
subsistence level of development which characterizes present agriculture in the region.
The principal population and commercial centers are linked by all-weather highways and
railroads (Figure 14). Through the provincial Department of Agriculture, the Agricultural
Development Corporation, the Agricultural Development Bank, the Agricultural Colleges,
and various other bureaus and agencies, provisions have been made to furnish the essential
institutional type of services and supplies, including procurement and distribution of fertil-
izers and selected seeds, plant protection, farm credit, extension services, and the like.
Most of these programs are administered locally by the Union Councils which also are the
basic political unit in Pakistan.

The current agricultural services and supply programs are modest in relation to the
area involved, but this reflects lack of demand more than shortcomings in the programs.
Subsistence farmers, who comprise about 70 percent of the cultivators and control nearly
35 percent of the land, have little or no need for these services. Only the more prosperous
farmers, chiefly those who have supplemental well supplies, are able to take full advantage
of the government programs, and their requirements are largely satisfied.

All factors considered, it appears that the foundations of an adequate infrastructure
exist. The important functions are established and operating at a level appropriate to pre-
sent needs, and these activities can be expanded within the framework of the existing




w"

i "2


I









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I



1

I
I,

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S,, r FIGURE 13
A r,. ..,,.- / ..





ltOs Per7,00 ~P i!Efl 5
/1 0 ;sor r / m jl



0.I K. L. .. ilh HAN.



3 ,0 S qu, .re mleo M IA N W A L I .ua I 1
\382,.000 ..... 5380 Sq JHe NG


UZ F"AR o,, o ,





4 5s~ per o sons e ss m'i-







3, 430 4~r pes n per sq mil
..U Alt / U.... ......
( 34q pe mip


S00 25.911,r00 / N
4 o ., /p P a.'








/ / ~l4 5 .ur ties fr PON
7"7,000 .134.DOD Plll nroZo P' .. :




















TPL L AA T O
,nT *RAnB APWAWAW.WNAGEARAA



Ti4e0 AI4 i .- ,
: ... .. 6 A A RO N


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. Em350-449 persons per sq. mile
Is. III. 7 ,s, o r n .i
N R NORTHERN ZONEN ..
TOT L "POPUL TION Barrage or HeA works





.... .. NO TH R INIU ......


/ r __ I~ / L I




R FIGURE 14





























































y i /' LEGEND
\ '/ /_ / Primary (metalled) Roads

y----- Secondary (unmetolled) Roads




S- International Boundary


S/ /Principal Canals

/i a Esi or Principal Citiso and Tawns
to I K o



















































NORTHERN INDU.S PLAINS

TRANSPORTATION
- Seond ry ( nmealld) oad
Raiwa
t Airpor

Intrnaioal ounar
Barg r edok


Pricipl C nal

$tLKT ricia Ctis ndTo n

EIAL O MLE









infrastructure to accommodate future requirements. This appraisal applies particularly to
the vital supply functions procurement and distribution of fertilizers and selected seeds.
In fact, if the government's ambitious plans for fertilizers and improved seeds are realized,
these items may be somewhat in oversupply in relation to the availability of irrigation
supplies for a few years prior to the completion of Tarbela storage.









PART II


AGRICULTURE


Despite the outstanding agricultural potentialities of the Northern Indus Plains, the
agriculture economy has long been stagnant, and in recent years has inhibited rather than
stimulated the total economy. Cropping intensity and yields of most crops have not increased
appreciably in the past 50 years and now rank among the lowest in the world for comparable
irrigated regions. No new crops and few modern, improved seed varieties have been intro-
duced into the traditional cropping pattern, and the use of other modern agricultural inputs
such as fertilizers and plant protection is minimal for an irrigated area. Most farmers oper-
ate at a subsistence level of production, and with the rapid increase in population which
has occurred since independence, exportable surpluses have dwindled and demand for agri-
cultural products now nearly equals regional production.

The basic problem of agriculture in the Northern Indus Plains is irrigation water
supply. In the absence of adequate and timely deliveries of irrigation supplies, farmers have
been unable to expand cropping intensities or to adopt modern practices. Unless present
trends of supply and demand are reversed the shortfall in production will occur by 1985 and
will amount to nearly 25 percent of regional demand by the year 2000.


PRESENT SITUATION

Land Holdings and Tenure

The average land holding in the region is about 9 acres. About 50 percent of the
farms, comprising 10 percent of the area, have 5 acres or less and subsistence holdings of
12.5 acres or less comprise more than 75 percent of the farms and 34 percent of the area.
On the other hand, 7 percent of the farms representing 38 percent of the area are larger
than 25 acres.

Size of Holding (Acres)


0-5 5-12.5 12.5-25 Over 25

Percentage of farms 49 28 16 7
Percentage of area 10 24 28 38

The average size of land holdings varies throughout the region largely according to
the level of agricultural development. In the most highly developed areas of Rechna and
Chaj Doabs the average holdings range in size from 5 to 7 acres, and more than 50 percent
of the area is in holdings smaller than 12.5 acres. In contrast, in the relatively undeveloped









PART II


AGRICULTURE


Despite the outstanding agricultural potentialities of the Northern Indus Plains, the
agriculture economy has long been stagnant, and in recent years has inhibited rather than
stimulated the total economy. Cropping intensity and yields of most crops have not increased
appreciably in the past 50 years and now rank among the lowest in the world for comparable
irrigated regions. No new crops and few modern, improved seed varieties have been intro-
duced into the traditional cropping pattern, and the use of other modern agricultural inputs
such as fertilizers and plant protection is minimal for an irrigated area. Most farmers oper-
ate at a subsistence level of production, and with the rapid increase in population which
has occurred since independence, exportable surpluses have dwindled and demand for agri-
cultural products now nearly equals regional production.

The basic problem of agriculture in the Northern Indus Plains is irrigation water
supply. In the absence of adequate and timely deliveries of irrigation supplies, farmers have
been unable to expand cropping intensities or to adopt modern practices. Unless present
trends of supply and demand are reversed the shortfall in production will occur by 1985 and
will amount to nearly 25 percent of regional demand by the year 2000.


PRESENT SITUATION

Land Holdings and Tenure

The average land holding in the region is about 9 acres. About 50 percent of the
farms, comprising 10 percent of the area, have 5 acres or less and subsistence holdings of
12.5 acres or less comprise more than 75 percent of the farms and 34 percent of the area.
On the other hand, 7 percent of the farms representing 38 percent of the area are larger
than 25 acres.

Size of Holding (Acres)


0-5 5-12.5 12.5-25 Over 25

Percentage of farms 49 28 16 7
Percentage of area 10 24 28 38

The average size of land holdings varies throughout the region largely according to
the level of agricultural development. In the most highly developed areas of Rechna and
Chaj Doabs the average holdings range in size from 5 to 7 acres, and more than 50 percent
of the area is in holdings smaller than 12.5 acres. In contrast, in the relatively undeveloped









irrigated area of D. I. Khan the average farm size is 27 acres; farms smaller than 12.5 acres
account for only 8 percent of the area whereas holdings of 50 acres or more comprise over
60 percent of the area.

Approximately 50 percent of the land is farmed by tenants, commonly on a share-
cropping basis. Most of the land, whether owned or leased, is farmed in small parcels.
More than 50 percent of the holdings are fragmented; about one-third of the holdings consist
of four or more individual parcels of land, often widely separated from one another.


Cropping Patterns and Intensities

For the purposes of this report the base reference period is taken as Rabi 1959
through Kharif 1961. Unless otherwise indicated, cropping intensity is used herein to
express the sum of the Rabi and Kharif cropped acreages as a percentage of the reclamation
area (RA) which, as has been defined previously, comprises the CA of the Nonsaline Zones,
and the CCA of the Intermediate and Saline Zones. In the computation of the cropping
intensity, areas of perennial crops are counted for both seasons.

During the base reference period 17.6 million acres were cropped annually in the
reclamation area of 20.8 million acres giving an annual cropping intensity of 85 percent.
The seasonal intensities and distribution of crops for the region are shown in Figure 15.
As approximately 10 percent of the land was double cropped, only 75 percent of the cultur-
able land was actually farmed, and 25 percent lay fallow.

Cropping patterns and intensities differ greatly from area to area and from canal
command to canal command in the region, primarily reflecting climatic constraints and the
restraints imposed upon the cultivators by insufficient and untimely irrigation supplies.
Other factors affecting cropping patterns and intensities are the stage of development of
the area, soil texture, local demands, and the market conditions. In the older, perennially
irrigated canal commands, cropping intensities and the percentage of land planted to cash
crops are relatively high, whereas in the more recently developed mostly nonperennial
areas cropping intensities tend to be lower and the percentage of subsistence crops such as
grains, oil seeds, and pulses, much higher.

On the basis of the above factors, the Northern Indus Plains region can be divided
into four major agricultural zones (Figure 16). The traditional (1959-1961) cropping patterns,
corresponding acreages, and cropping intensities for the four zones are given in Table 17.
Cropping intensities by canal commands are shown in Figure 17.

Between 1960 and 1965 the regional cropping intensity increased to about 92 percent
largely because of public and private ground-water development in Rechna, Bari, and Chaj
Doabs. The intensities achieved in individual canal commands in 1965 are given in Table 18.




FIGURE 15


SUGAR CANE 3.8 %
kFRUIT 0.5 %


KHARIF CROPS
(INTENSITY 34.6 %)


1.9 %


FODDER 8.1 %


VEGETABLES 0.8 %
MISCELLANEOUS 0.5 %
SUGAR CANE 3.8 %
FRUIT 0.5 %


RABI CROPS
(INTENSITY 50.0 % )


1960 SEASONAL DISTRIBUTION


OF CROPS


KHARIF: RABI RATIO- 1:1.44)


RICE 5.4%


(ANNUAL INTENSITY -85 %




-- .. FIGURE 16
.-.. A Ii


I


I


I




I





I


I,


I


I




I


I


a;



if
'..
A,
A.~,


/c


WEST PAKisTAN WATER AND POWER DVEbLOPMENT AUTHORITY
%..ro! a th a .r 'iDr m


//







LEGEND
AGRICULTURAL ZONES
(Established on basis of climate ,cropping
pattern and economic/sociologic factors )
I Zone I
Zone Il
Zone MI
W Zone IV
International Boundary
S Barrage or Headworks
Principal Canals
ts bALOT Principal Cities and Towns


,o a to so ao
SCALE OF MILES

NORTHERN INDUS PLAINS

AGRICULTURAL ZONES


.I / ...^,~



/
. ... .


,I
"C







,!
;i





A

I


-cc.


" I


j \ i ,
\ s^X '
^ ^\ "
:1. / -(


IC


'cc n0l


- i'.









Table 17


1960 CROPPING PATTERNS


Agricultural Agricultural Agricultural Agricultural Total Northern
Season and Crop Zone I Zone II Zone III Zone IV Indus Plains
1,000 Percent 1,000 Percent 1,000 Percent 1,000 Percent 1,000 Percent
Acres of RA Acres of RA Acres of RA Acres of RA Acres of RA
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11)

Kharif:
Rice 777 14.0 181 3.6 77 1.7 77 1.3 1,112 5.4
Cotton 456 8.2 665 13.3 882 19.6 436 7.6 2,439 11.7
Maize 153 2.8 168 3.4 43 1.0 30 0.5 394 1.9
Millets 180 3.2 156 3.1 127 2.8 242 4.2 705 3.4
Fodder 417 7.5 343 6.9 430 9.6 236 4.1 1,426 6.9
Vegetables 10 0.2 8 0.2 6 0.1 6 0.1 30 0.1
Miscellaneous 27 0.5 25 0.5 89 2.0 49 0.9 190 0.9

Sugar Cane 268 4.8 245 4.9 134 3.0 142 2.5 789 3.8
Fruit 21 0.4 46 0.9 18 0.4 19 0.3 104 0.5
Subtotal 2,309 41.6 1,837 36.7 1,806 40.1 1,237 21.7 7,189 34.6


Rabi:
Wheat 1,900 34.2 1,608 32.2 1,328 29.5 1,120 19.7 5,956 28.6
Pulses 298 5.4 193 3.9 189 4.2 503 8.8 1,183 5.8
Oilseeds 93 1.7 84 1.7 125 2.8 92 1.6 394 1.9
Fodder 588 10.6 555 11.1 349 7.7 189 3.3 1,681 8.1
Vegetables 37 0.7 43 0.9 46 1.0 46 0.8 170 0.8
Miscellaneous 35 0.6 31 0.6 19 0.4 25 0.4 110 0.5

Sugar Cane 268 4.8 245 4.9 134 3.0 142 2.5 789 3.8
Fruit 21 0.4 46 0.9 18 0.4 19 0.3 104 0.5
Subtotal 3,243 58.4 2,806 56.1 2,205 49.0 2,133 37.4 10,387 50.0

Total Cropped Area 5,552 4,643 4,011 3,370 17,576


Reclamation Area (1,000 ac.) 5,554


Kharif: Rabi Ratio


5,000


1:1.40


1:1.53


4,503

1:1.22


5,701


20,758

1:1.44


1:1.72


Cropping Intensity 100


93 89


59 85






Table 18
NORTHERN INDUS PLAINS

ESTIMATED, 1960 AND 1965 IRRIGATION WATER REQUIREMENTS,
SUPPLIES, AND SHORTAGES
(All values in million acre feet at head of watercourse unless noted otherwise)

RECLAMATION CANAL SUPPLIES(a) 1 9 6 0 1 9 6 5
C A N A L C 0 M M A N D AREA CROPPING IRRIGATION WATER GROUND WATER IRRIGATION WATER CROPPING IRRIGATION WATER GROUND WATER IRRIGATION WATER
KHARIF RABI INTENSITY REQUIREMENT SUPPLIES SHORTAGES INTENSITY REQUIREMENT SUPPLIES SHORTAGES
(1,000 ACRES)
% KHARIF RABI KHARIF RABI KHARIF RABI % KHARIF RABI KHARIF RABI KHARIF RABI
(I) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (II) (12) (13) (14) (15) (16) (17) (18)

THAL I, 966.9 1.40 0.99 40 0.46 1.29 0.01 0.02 0 0.28 43 0.52 1.36 0.03 0.09 0 0.28
PAHARPUR 105.4 0.12 0.04 34 0.04 0.05 0 0.01 0 0 38 0.04 0.05 0.01 0.02 0 0
MUZAFFARGARH 7 2 4.9 1.29 0.10 5 1 0.46 0.48 0.01 0.01 0 0.37 54 0.49 0.5 1 0.06 0.06 0 0.35
D.G. KHAN 7 19.7 1.14 0.09 41 0.31 0.42 0.01 0.01 0 0.32 44 0.34 0.45 0.04 0.04 0 0.32


UPPER JHELUM (INTERNAL) 647.3 0.65 0.25 104 0.49 0.87 0.01 0.03 0 0.59 109 0.52 0.91 0.07 0.13 0 0.53
LOWER JHELUM 1, 5 59.9 1.31 0.97 97 1.55 1.89 0.04 0.04 0.20 0.88 100 1.63 1.92 0.29 0.34 0.03 0.61


M.R. LINK (INTERNAL) 161.6 0.14 0.02 125 0.23 0.17 0.02 0.01 0.07 0.14 134 0.25 0.18 0.07 0.05 0.04 0.11
UPPER CHENAB (INTERNAL) 1, 2 1 0.3 0.72 0.39 99 1.33 1.14 0.07 0.06 0.54 0.69 105 1.43 1.21 0.26 0.22 0.45 0.60
B.R.B.D. LINK (INTERNAL) 427.4 0.20 0.02 86 0.51 0.27 0.02 0.01 0.29 0.24 91 0.53 0.30 0.09 0.05 0.24 0.23
CENTRAL BARI DOAB 735.6 0.38 0.31 93 0.66 0.85 0.06 0.07 0.22 0.47 98 0.70 0.89 0.13 0.16 0.19 0.42
UPPER DIPALPUR 330.4 0.33 0.03 69 0.21 0.30 0.02 0.03 0 0.24 71 0.22 0.31 0.03 0.05 0 0.23


LOWER CHENAB I, 805.0 1.53 1.17 106 1.92 2.60 0.08 0.10 0.31 1.33 110 2.04 2.62 0.62 0.85 0 0.60
LOWER CHENAB FEEDER 1, 3 10.7 1.20 0.88 106 1.45 1.82 0.06 0.06 0.19 0.88 109 1.51 1.85 0.37 0.58 0 0.39
LOWER BARI DOAB 1, 551.9 1.85 1.45 110 2.49 2.22 0. 10 0.08 0.54 0.69 118 2.68 2.36 0.42 0.36 0.41 0.55
LOWER DIPALPUR 698.8 0.67 0.06 97 0.86 0.90 0.03 0.03 0.16 0.81 106 0.95 0.98 0.18 0. 19 0.10 0.73
UPPER PAKPATTAN I, 2 4.7 0.93 0.53 82 1.24 1. 15 0.06 0.06 0.25 0.56 93 1.39 1.24 0.35 0.32 0. 11 0.39
EASTERN SADIQIA 9 42.5 0.99 0.69 90 1.36 0.94 0.02 0.01 0.35 0.24 90 1.36 0.94 0.02 0.01 0.35 0.24
FOROWAH 430.1 0.49 0.11 66 0.32 0.41 0 0.01 0 0.29 70 0.35 0.43 0.04 0.06 0 0.26


RANGPUR 357.4 0.40 0.16 61 0.27 0.28 0 0.01 0 0.11 63 0.28 0.28 0.02 0.03 0 0.09
HAVELI (INTERNAL) 157.8 0.17 0.10 87 0.17 0.17 0.01 0.01 0 0.06 90 0.18 0.18 0.02 0.02 0 0.06
SIDHNAI 796.6 0.83 0.51 100 1.20 1.04 0.04 0.03 0.33 0.50 107 1.29 1.12 0.19 0. 16 0. 27 0.45
LOWER PAKPATTAN 335.9 0.32 0.18 86 0.47 0.36 0.02 0.02 0.13 0.16 93 0.50 0.39 0.08 0.07 0.10 0. 14
MAILSI 677.9 0.74 0.14 74 0.79 0.57 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.40 78 0.88 0.63 0.18 0.14 0 0 35
BAHAWAL 576.9 0.79 0.29 77 0.74 0.49 0.04 0.03 0 0.17 78 0.75 0.49 0.05 0.04 0 0.16
ABBASIA 109.2 0.17 0.09 84 0.17 0. 10 0.01 0 0 0.01 86 0.17 0.10 0.02 0 0 0.01
PANJNAD I, 35 3.8 1.99 0.82 85 2.08 1.22 0.07 0.05 0.02 0.35 87 2.14 1.24 0.16 0. 10 0 0.32


TOTAL 20, 758.0 20.75 10.39 85 21.78 22.00 0.84 0.83 3.62 10.78 90 23.14 22.94 3.80 4.14 2.29 8.42


Note :
(a) Cols. (3) and (4) are historic median canal supplies.




































































































LEGEND

1960 CROPPING INTENSITY

Greater than 100%

60% to 100%

S Less than 60%


International Boundary

Barrage or Headworks


Principal Canals


AsiAor Principal Cities and Towns



Io o ,o ao
SCALE OF MILES



NORTHERN INDUS PLAINS


1960 CROPPING INTENSITY


WEST PAKISTAN WATER AND POWER DEVELOPMENT AUTHORITY
TIPTON AND KALMSAH,M INC.-ENGIaERS


9' .


P.ir.r pur
;'n -.


3, n
<


A.--

0 0 60 a.


esh~:,


Pa j nad
"%


/




~




I(iliifiUR


r


Plr~i~o~-









Irrigation Supplies and Other Inputs


Of the 17.6 million acres cropped annually during 1959-1961, 16.4 million acres
were irrigated with canal supplies and about .5 million acres were irrigated with ground
water from tubewells and Persian wheels. In addition, .7 million acres within the canal
commanded area were cultivated as barani (rainfed) lands.

The estimated average annual irrigation requirements, supplies, and shortages for
the traditional cropping pattern for the 1959-1961 period by canal command are shown in
Table 18. The critical inadequacy of irrigation water supplies in relation to the area being
farmed in the Northern Indus Plains is evident from this table. Even the relatively modest
water requirements of the traditional cropping patterns and intensities were not being satis-
fied. The full annual water requirement for the crop acreages and cropping patterns is
estimated to be 43.8 million acre feet at the heads of water courses. Canal supplies and
supplemental pumpage averaged 32. 8 million acre feet, but the shortfall was greater than
the difference between deliveries and requirements because Thal, Right Bank Indus, and,
to a lesser extent, other areas received supplies particularly in Kharif which were surplus
to their requirements. Thus, even at the very low cropping intensity of 85 percent, the
annual irrigation water shortage for the region was 14.4 million acre feet comprised of 3.6
million acre feet in Kharif and 10.8 million acre feet in Rabi. Rabi shortages for the vari-
ous canal commands ranged from nil to more than 80 percent of requirements and averaged
49 percent; Kharif shortages ranged from nil to about 55 percent and averaged 16 percent.
It should be emphasized that the true shortages are somewhat larger than seasonal account-
ing indicates because of the untimeliness of deliveries within the seasons, especially in the
nonperennial canals during Kharif. For example, historic canal deliveries in the UCC
command have averaged 250 percent of requirements during May but only about 50 percent
of requirements during July, August, and September.

The estimated seasonal supplies and shortages by canal command against the esti-
mated cropping intensity for 1965 also are shown in Table 18. Between 1960 and 1965
mean annual irrigation supplies increased by about 6.3 maf owing to public and private
ground-water development. However, as the cropping intensity also increased, from 85 to
92 percent, only 3.7 maf of the additional supplies were useful in relieving the base short-
age of 14.4 maf. Again it should be noted that the seasonal accounts underestimate the
actual shortage because of the untimeliness of intraseasonal deliveries.

Water shortages of this magnitude have had profound effects on the agricultural
economy as indicated by the following:

1. Shortage of irrigation water is directly responsible for much of the spread
and increasing severity of salinity and alkali problems in the Punjab. The
rapidly increasing demands for food and forage has forced the cultivator to
spread his irrigation supplies so as to obtain maximum crop production per unit
of water. As a consequence, water generally has been applied too thinly to
insure the amount of leaching necessary for salinity control.









2. It has been clearly demonstrated in West Pakistan and elsewhere that, without
adequate irrigation supplies, response to fertilizers generally is uneconomical
or insignificant and often can have deleterious effects. The local studies have
shown that with adequate irrigation, the soils of the Punjab respond favorably
to fertilizers. Yet inspection of Figure 18 shows that Pakistan cultivators are
using very little fertilizer, clearly because water supplies are inadequate. The
extent of underfertilization is indicated by the fact that per acre application in
the United Arab Republic is about 24 times as large, and for the entire world
5.6 times as large, as for Pakistan.

3. As a consequence of the historic deficiencies in water supply and fertilizer use,
the common seed varieties are those that require a minimum of water and pro-
duce relatively well under conditions of low fertility. However, such seeds,
most of which are retained from previous crops, do not respond well to increased
inputs of water and fertilizer. Furthermore, the seed is impure and often infected
with insects, the percent germination is low, and a high proportion is infected
with plant diseases.

4. Pest and disease control is entirely inadequate because at present levels of pro-
duction it is not economic. Inadequate use of pesticides, without doubt, has
had a significant effect on the yields of the more vulnerable crops, particularly
cotton, rice, and sugar cane. It is estimated that not over 10 percent of the
crop acreage receives any protective measures at all, and that not over one
percent is adequately protected. And in recent years, there has been a decline
in pesticide importation.

The cumulative effect of shortages of irrigation supply is indicated by:

(a) The traditional cropping patterns and low intensities which are character-
istic of a subsistence economy and feature no new important crops.

(b) The present Kharif-Rabi cropping ratio of about 1 to 1.4, which is over-
balanced in favor of Rabi subsistence crops rather than the more profitable
Kharif cash crops.

(c) The low per acre yields, resulting largely from relatively little use of
improved seed varieties, fertilizers, and pesticides, inputs that generally
are uneconomical if irrigation supplies are not adequate.


Yields and Production

The acreages planted to the principal crops and the average yields and production
for the period 1959-1961, the base period used for economic evaluations, are listed in
Table 19. Approximately two-thirds (11.2 million acres) of the total cropped acreage of
16.7 million acres was planted to food crops. Gross annual production of food crops aver-
aged 162 million mounds, equivalent to an average yield of 14.5 maunds per cropped acre
per year.
















CONSUMPTION OF FERTILIZER

IN SELECTED COUNTRIES
(FROM "FAO PRODUCTION YEARBOOK" 1964)


LEGEND


----Nitrogen (N)

----Phosphate (P2 05)


sh (K2 0)


Average World
Consumption of:


PAKISTAN


MEXICO


CHILE


WORLD AVG.


SPAIN


U.S.A.


ISRAEL


U. A.R.









Table 19


BASE STATUS OF AGRICULTURE 1959-1961


p Harvested Area Yield Crop Production
C(Million Acres) (Maunds Per Acre) (Million Maunds)


Rice (paddy)
Sugar Cane (gur)
Cotton (seed cotton)
Maize
Millets (jowar and bajra)
K. Fodder (fresh weight)
Wheat
Pulses
Oi Iseeds
R. Fodder (fresh weight)
Vegetables
Fruit
Miscellaneous
Total


1.1
0.8
2.4
0.4
0.7
1.4
6.0
1.2
0.4
1.7
0.2
0.1
0.3
16.7


18
34
8
12
6
300
12
6
5
310
110
28


Non-Food Crops
Food Crops


19.8
27.2
19.2(1)
4.8
4.2
420.0(1)
72.0
7.2
2.0
527.0(1)
22.0
2.8

1,128.2

966.2
162.0


Note: (1) Non-Food Crops


The world average for food crop production during this same period was approximately
27 maunds per acre. Thus, the average yield for the cropped lands of the Northern Indus
Plains, almost all of which were irrigated, was only about half of the world average. It
should be noted that most of the world's cropland is not irrigated and that yields generally
are higher in irrigated than in unirrigated areas.

During the five-year period, 1960-1965, owing to augmentation of irrigation
supplies by installation of public tubewells in SCARP Projects 1, 2, and 3, and by acceler-
ated construction of private tubewells, there was a 20 to 25 percent increase in agricultural
production in the Northern Indus Plains. It is estimated that half of this increase in produc-
tion resulted from increases in cropping intensity and half from larger irrigation deltas, both
made possible by public and private development of ground-water supplies.

Thus, in the period 1960-1965, per acre production in the Indus Plains increased at
a rate of about 2 percent per year, or only a little faster than the world average. However,
it should be pointed out that the regional gain in production from 1960 to 1965 was in part
illusory, for, as illustrated in Table 20, yields declined in the previous ten-year period.









Table 20


INDEX OF PRODUCTION AND PRODUCTIVITY (1949-1950 = 100)


1931- 1939- 1949- 1954- 1959- 1964-
Item1932 1940 1950 1955 1960 1965

Regional Population -- 100 111 125 142
Production of Food Crops -- 100 96 109 131
Wheat Acreage 89 88 100 102 117 127
Wheat Production 66 89 100 81 100 117
Wheat Yield Per Acre 74 101 100 80 85 92
Wheat Production Per Capita -- 100 73 80 82

Source: "Acreage, Production and Prices of Major Agriculture Crops of West Pakistan
(Punjab), 1931-1959, by Abdur Rab; Stat. Paper No. 1, Inst. Develop.
Economics, 1961; and
"Pakistan Basic Facts," 4th Edition, Ministry of Finance, 1966.


Further evidence of the unprogressive status of agriculture in Pakistan is presented
in Table 21. Not only did world averages for all crops listed exceed Pakistan's yields in
both 1950 and 1960, but during this period in Pakistan the average yield of four crops
actually decreased, three increased only slightly, and only two kept pace with world
averages.

Other striking comparisons can be made. In Figure 19 the average yields of both
rice and wheat in 15 countries in 1909-1913 are compared with the yields obtained in 1959-
1961. In Pakistan-India average yields of wheat and rice, as well as most other crops, have
remained virtually unchanged during the past 50 years. However, during this same period
the yield of wheat increased from 50 to 280 percent in 9 of the 15 countries listed and the
yield of rice increased from 50 to 170 percent in 12 of a somewhat different list of 15
countries. During this same period the world average yield of wheat increased about 50
percent and of rice increased more than 60 percent. Of greatest significance is the fact
that in most cases relative rank based on productivity has changed radically in the last few
decades. From the changes in rank it is obvious that the changes in productivity are not
closely related to natural resources, climate or education; rather they apparently reflect
the availability of important agricultural inputs such as water, fertilizers, improved seed
varieties and pesticides, and the application of advances in agricultural technology.

This conclusion is supported by comparison of agriculture in Pakistan and the U. A. R.
Data published in "The State of Food and Agriculture 1963" by the Food and Agricultural
Organization of the United Nations (FAO), shows that the "gross agricultural output" per
unit area in Pakistan in the period 1956-1960 was less than one-fifth that of the United
Arab Republic. Whereas the U. A. R. is considered to have ample irrigation supplies, it is
similar or inferior to West Pakistan in climate, soils, crops, crop adaptability, mechaniz-
ation, production of fertilizers, education, and like factors. Yet the productivity of the










Table 21

1950-1960 CHANGES IN CROP YIELDS FOR VARIOUS GEOGRAPHICAL REGIONS(a)

(Yields shown In pounds per acre)


North Latin Near Far United U.A.R.
Crop America America East East Africa World States (Egypt) Pakistan
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10)


Wheat
1950 Average
1960 Average
Increase

Barley
1950 Average
1960 Average
Increase

Maize
1950 Average
1960 Average
Increase

Sorghum
1950 Average
1960 Average
Increase

Millet
1950 Average
1960 Average
Increase

Sesame Seed
1950 Average
1960 Average
Increase

Potato
1950 Average
1960 Average
Increase

Sugar
1950 Average
1960 Average
Increase

Seed Cotton
1950 Average
1960 Average
Increase


1,035
1,374
33%


1,294
1,544
19%


2,222
3,623
63%


1,124
2,445
118%


937
1,178
25%


812 705 535 901
892 785 580 1,080
10% 11% 8% 20%


946 857 928 598
964 892 937 526
2% 4% 1% -12%


937
1,026
9%


812
1,338
65%


1,356
1,570
16%


999
1,115
12%


1,017
1,294
27%


669 678 1,410
874 892 2,757
31% 32% 96%


999
1,481
48%


1,276
1,606
26%


2,222
3,614
63%


500 1,124
857 2,445
71% 118%


669 571 339
794 642 384
19% 12% 13%


473 518
580 419
23% -19%


13,920
18,917
36%


768
1,267
65%


4,729
5,443
15%


7,852
9,815
25%


526 973
750 1,053
43% 8%


1,642
2,275
39%


1,713
2,347
37%


1,865
2,186
17%


2,418
2,998
24%


375
473
26%


178 286 321
170 303 259
-4% 6% -19%


7,138
8,388
17%


4,818
5,711
19%


9,548
9,815
3%


776
732
-6%


598
562
-6%


874
919
5%


428
446
4%


330
419
27%


705 375
866 348
23% -7%


14,366
19,720
37%


4,078
5,280
29%


330 276 607 768
393 285 812 1,267
19% 3% 34% 65%


12,849
14,366
12%


6,496
8,316
28%


1,312
1,491
14%


7,049
5,800
-18%


3,025
3,090
2%


526
696
32%


(a) From F.A.O. "Production Yearbook 1964".










U. A. R. is five times that of West Pakistan, and it is considered an agriculturally progressive
area whereas West Pakistan is viewed as an underdeveloped area. This suggests that West
Pakistan yields primarily reflect the availability of irrigation water and its interrelations
with other inputs, rather than reflecting differences in the skills, education or industry of
the farmers or contrasts in natural agricultural resources.

It is tempting to blame the cultivator for the primitive state of agriculture in West
Pakistan. But in fact, the majority of cultivators are highly efficient in the use of their
water and land resources. The traditional cropping patterns, intensities, Kharif-Rabi ratios,
and attendant low yields have evolved and been retained primarily because they represent
the most advantageous integration of all crop production factors under existing conditions
of supplies and incentives.

Clearly the provision of adequate irrigation water supplies and concomitant drainage
are the fundamental requirements for increased productivity. Adequate water supplies and
drainage must be provided to create the environment and incentives necessary for investment
in other required inputs. Until these prerequisites are satisfied, no appreciable changes
can occur in the traditional agricultural practices.


CRISIS OF DEVELOPMENT AND DEMAND

Economic appraisal of the economy of Pakistan commonly centers on and emphasizes
the growing gap between production and demand for food. The critical nature of the problem
is indicated by Figure 20 which shows the relationship between current trends in regional
net food production and regional demand projected to the year 2000. Prior to World War I
the Northern Indus Plains region was termed the "breadbasket" of the sub-continent.
Yields of most crops compared favorably with world standards, local production exceeded
demand, and there were annual food exports from the region. Subsequently, agricultural
progress has been virtually nil, with yield per acre and output per agricultural worker show-
ing negligible change, whereas population and demand have increased markedly. There
has been a large increase in total regional production since World War I and a moderate
increase since World War II, but growth of production has not matched the growth in
demand, and has been largely in proportion to the increase in the cropped area rather than
to increases in productivity.

With the ongoing public tubewell projects and continued installation of private
tubewells, irrigation water supplies will continue to increase for some years. As a conse-
quence of the augmented supplies the rate of increase of crop production until about 1980
will be in excess of the one and a half percent normally anticipated. Assuming continuation
of present trends in private tubewell installation and in productivity, and no further public
development, the projected gross crop and food production, and demand for food are as
given in Table 22.




FIGURE 19


PHILIPPINES

CEYLON

BRAZIL

MALAYA

MEXICO

U.S.S.R.

ARGENTINA

PAKISTAN-INDIA

U.S.A.

CHINA (TAIWAN)

JAPAN

ITALY

U.A.R.

AUSTRALIA

SPAIN


TUNISIA

MEXICO

BULGARIA

PORTUGAL

ARGENTINA

U. SS.R.

AUSTRALIA
PAKISTAN- INDIA

SPAIN

U.S.A.

ITALY

POLAND

HUNGRY

FRANCE

JAPAN


AVERAGE
( FROM


'7/77771

777777;1

mTm

777777777

772/7772:
/////////


m i mi11l11 a


77777


__-m/ -


////////A /11/////'/y //,///


,/./


Z/I/A


1. I I I I


- m -


7llll -/lllt- lll -II111


I///!- I









- ~m -
111111 I!1.11]/








IIIIII /77/7747///
"1/1/ 11 /'/^ /////ll '/l/'/7^ \ ___


-/~~ ji/ijil;b -


LEGEND

9 1909- 1913
iwl" 11958-1960







WHEAT


0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 I
YIELD-MAUNDS PER ACRE



CROP YIELDS IN SELECTED COUNTRIES
F.A.O."STATE OF FOOD AND AGRICULTURE-1963")


.4-. 4 4.


~


U7


LEGEND
S 1909-1913
1958-1960




RICE


/ /// ///
777777777/


"////////y///// ////////.










30-


25




S= Food Deficit

S20- Demand--' ..


0
o

- I 5




(n

10-
_J






5 -. NORTHERN INDUS PLAINS
FOOD PRODUCTION AND DEMAND 1960 to 2000
WITHOUT CONTINUING RECLAMATION PROGRAM
(Excluding Livestock Products)

0 1 I I I I I I I
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

YEARS









Table 22


PROJECTED CROP AND FOOD PRODUCTION IN THE NORTHERN INDUS PLAINS
WITHOUT ADDITIONAL RECLAMATION PROJECTS
(Values in million metric tons)

Gross Crop Net Food Demand
Year Production Production For Food

1960 42 4.3 4.5
1965 51 5.3 5.3
1970 66 7.2 6.5
1975 80 8.8 8.0
1980 93 10.3 9.7
1985 108 11.9 11.7
1990 123 13.6 14.2
1995 139 15.2 17.2
2000 154 17.1 20.4


According to these projections food production in the region will keep pace with
the regional demand until about 1985. However, the modest surpluses of food produced in
the Northern Indus Plains region until then will not satisfy the shortages which will accrue
from the other regions of West Pakistan. The effect of the food gap is evident in the
increasing value of grain imports into the province which have been required to satisfy the
minimal food requirements. Prior to about 1950, West Pakistan was self-sufficient in grain.
By 1965 the annual value of grain imports had increased to Rs 600 million despite the rise
in production between 1960 and 1965. If this trend were to continue, the value of grain
imports would rise to about Rs 2,000 million annually by 1985. As accumulated grain
surpluses in the United States are practically exhausted, most of the wheat requirements,
if available at all, will have to be purchased on the open market with disastrous effects on
the Pakistan economy. This kind of situation cannot be tolerated in the economy of an
agrarian nation, and development planning must concentrate on the elimination of the
potential food deficits.

However, to stress only the shortfall in food production overlooks the more funda-
mental effects of the failure of agriculture. Obviously, to sustain a viable economy an
agrarian nation must do more than just meet its internal requirements. Therefore the real
measure of the agricultural problem is the economic gap between actual production which
could realistically be expected with reasonable development of available resources. The
economic gap includes both the food gap and the wealth which has been and is being lost
by the failure of the agriculture sector to produce exportable surpluses for the world market.

The economic gap cannot be determined with precision, but for the Northern Indus
Plains the gap can be approximated by comparison of regional productivity with world
experience. Considering the exceedingly favorable environment for year-around irrigation










agriculture in the Northern Indus Plains, it is not unreasonable to assume that regional
productivity for most crops should equal or exceed world averages. On this basis, present
gross production of food and fiber for the region should be on the order of 100 million tons
per year. This is double the 1965 regional production. Considering scheduled increases
in water supplies and other factors, total crop production in the region will be increasing
at a rate of about three percent per year compounded until about 1980. However, even
on this basis the economic gap in production would not decrease but would be on the order
of 35 million tons by the year 2000 or 23 percent of total annual production. This must be
considered as a conservative estimate, but it indicates the order of magnitude of the problem.

The effect of the economic gap is evident in the malaise of the total economy.
Despite its moribund state, agriculture remains the dominant sector of the economy and the
chief occupation of the population. But at the levels of productivity which prevail, about
75 percent of the cultivators most of those with about 12 acres or less operate on a sub-
sistence basis, and do not participate significantly in the economy either as surplus pro-
ducers or consumers. Moreover, these subsistence farmers control about 35 percent of the
land and hence 35 percent of the canal supplies. It is doubtful whether a viable economy
can develop in a situation where such a proportion of the resources of the primary sector
are consumed in maintaining a subsistence economy.


POTENTIAL YIELDS AND PRODUCTIVITY

The Northern Indus Plains has perhaps the world's most favorable environment for
very large scale, intensive, irrigated agriculture. Here is found a unique combination of
the natural resources essential to a highly productive irrigation economy a favorable
climate conducive to year-around farming; vast areas of arable soils well suited for inten-
sive cropping; and abundant supplies of excellent quality water from the Indus River system
and from the immense ground-water reserves. In addition, owing to the high rural popula-
tion density and the present stage of agricultural development, there is a large under-
employed reservoir of agricultural labor.

Climate, soils, water, and the availability of labor offer no significant restraints
to optimum crop yields and production. Attainment of potential crop yields is therefore
largely a technical problem, primarily one of incorporating the necessary inputs water,
adequate drainage, good seed varieties, fertilizers, pesticides, etc. in the correct pro-
portions and according to the latest knowledge of agricultural science. Realization of full
potential production simply requires combining optimum yields with maximum practical
cropping intensities.

Whereas all growth factors probably have not been identified, agriculturists are
rapidly quantifying the interrelations of known growth factors and are learning just how
input shortages limit the potential levels of production. Clearly, optimum crop yields and
productivity that are attainable for a given field or a farm are only theoretically attainable
for a large region or a country. Also, it should be kept in mind that as potential levels of
yield and productivity rise with improvements in management practices, seed varieties and
agricultural technology, the ultimate yield potential for individual crops and for land will
increase to unpredictable levels.










However, as natural resources and labor are not restraints to yield levels in the
Northern Indus Plains, reasonable figures for immediate and near future optimum yields can
be deduced from recorded yields already achieved by Punjabi farmers, and from yields
achieved in comparable developed irrigated areas elsewhere in the world.

Table 23 lists record yields obtained by Punjabi farmers in the 1964-1965 crop year
as reported by the Department of Agriculture, and some "record" yields reported by other
organizations.

Table 23

RECORD YIELDS OBTAINED BY PUNJABI FARMERS

Reported
Crop Reported by Dept. of Agriculture(1) by Other
Organizations(2)
District Mounds per Acre Maunds per Acre


Wheat
Rice (paddy)
Maize
Cotton (seed cotton)
Barley
Sugar cane (gur)
Gram
Oilseeds
Berseem (fresh weight)
Groundnut
Guara


Mianwali
Sargodha
Lyallpur
Sadiqabad
Sargodha
Kabi rwala
Sargodha


Piple
Lahore


82
77
84


191

32
1,630


(1) Grown in 1964-1965 in farm fields from 0. 15 to 1 acre in area.
(2) Grown before 1964 in farm fields; districts and size of cropped area not given.


Tables 24 and 25 give outstanding, but not record, yields obtained recently by
American farmers and Experimental Station workers in the southwestern United States, a
highly developed region similar to the Punjab in natural resources and frequently used as
a comparison for irrigated areas.










Table 24


OUTSTANDING FARM YIELDS* OBTAINED IN CALIFORNIA, U.S.A.(1)

Maunds
-Crop Year r Ae Location
Per Acre


Wheat
Rice (paddy)
Maize
Cotton (seed cotton)
Sugar cane (sugar)

(1) From M. D. Miller,
* Not record yields.


1965
1966
1966
1966
1961


92
109
114
96
243


Sacramento Valley
Sacramento Valley
San Joaquin Valley
Imperial Valley
Imperial Valley


University of California, A. E. S., February 1967.



Table 25


RECENT YIELDS* FROM CALIFORNIA EXPERIMENT STATIONS(1)


Maunds
Crop Year Per Acre Location
Per Acre


Sugar Beets (sugar)
Pulses
Barley
Sorghum (grain)
Sorghum (forage,
70% H20)
Winter Forage
(70% H20)


1965
1966
1965
1966

1966

1966


(1) From M. D. Miller, University of
* Not record yields.


164
44
79
109

1,210


Tule Lake Area
San Joaquin Valley

San Joaquin Valley


610


California, A. E. S., February 1967.


The outstanding farm and Experiment Station yields obtained in California exceed
the 1964-1965 record yields for the Northern Indus Plains by 25 to 95 percent for compar-
able crops. However, even greater crop yields can and will be achieved in Pakistan in
the not too distant future. For planning it is desirable to use conservative values when
considering crop yield potentials or in attempting to predict the crop yields attainable after
completion of reclamation programs. Taking into account projected changes in water supply;









reclamation of salt-affected and waterlogged soils; increased farm inputs, such as improved
seeds, adequate fertilization and complete pest control; improved farmer education and
skills; and probable advances in agricultural technology, the crop yields indicated in Table
26 are potentially attainable in the reasonably near future.


Table 26

FUTURE POTENTIAL CROP YIELDS NORTHERN INDUS PLAINS

p Maunds
Crop Per Acre


Kharif:
Rice (paddy) 67
Cotton (seed cotton) 60
Maize 70
Millets 55
Fodder (fresh weight) 1,000
Vegetables 300

Rabi:
Wheat 60
Oilseeds 35
Fodder (fresh weight) 1,000
Pulses 35
Vegetables 250

Perennial:
Sugar cane (gur) 120
Fruit 170

Except for cotton, maize, and oilseeds, the record 1964-1965 yields in the Punjab
listed in Table 23 exceed the above values; also, the recent outstanding (not record) yields
obtained in California exceed all of the above future potential yield values.


Attainable Yields and Production

It is obvious that the full productive potential of an area is not a realistic goal.
But with adequate water supplies and drainage, and with an infrastructure capable of
furnishing the other necessary inputs and know-how, productivity of the irrigated lands of
the Northern Indus Plains can increase rapidly to very high levels. The attainable crop
yields and level of production will, therefore, depend upon a number of factors, as
follow:










1. Adequate irrigation water supplies.


2. The rate that cultivators can make effective use of increased water supplies.
Pakistani cultivators have repeatedly demonstrated that they can put water to
good use as rapidly as it is supplied. The most recent example of this is
reflected in the performance of cultivators in areas served by the recently com-
pleted Sidhnai-Mailsi Link Canal. They achieved significantly higher inten-
sities with the augmented supplies which became available during the mainten-
ance period, before the canal was placed in normal operation.

3. The availability of other inputs, such as fertilizers, improved seeds, and pesti-
cides. Because of the present shortage of water, many of these inputs can be
provided more rapidly than they can be put to economic use, but this will
change when ample water supplies are available.

4. The availability of adequate ancillary facilities or personnel for technical
training, research, storage, transportation, credit, marketing, and the like

5. Satisfactory prices for produce; i.e., adequate incentives.

In practice, the various measures available for markedly increasing levels of pro-
duction cannot be effectively separated. For example, along with adequate water supplies,
the full development program presupposes sufficient fertilizers to permit maintenance of soil
fertility without the inefficiency of fallowing. The fertilizer program will be of little
value without provision for adequate water supplies and for improved seed varieties which
will respond to fertilizer efficiently. The benefits of the three primary inputs, in turn, rely
heavily on modern protective measures to control the plant disease, insect and weed infest-
ations that accompany bountiful crop production. Furthermore, vigorous educational and
extension efforts will be required to help guide the farmers in integrating their management
practices as productivity increases; ample credit facilities will be needed to make many of
the future aspects of the program possible; and effective distribution and marketing facilities
must be provided for both farm supplies and produce.

Estimates of the probable average future yield of each crop after completion of the
reclamation program are set forth in Column (3) of Table 27. The estimates of future yields
range from 46 to 70 percent of the reasonably attainable potential yields for the various
crops previously considered, the overall average being about 60 percent. In Figure 21, the
future yields of most of the crops are compared with present and potential yields for the
region, and with present world averages and yields in advanced agricultural areas.









Table 27


PROJECTED CROP YIELDS IN THE NORTHERN INDUS PLAINS
(Values in maunds per acre unless otherwise noted)


Increase Future in
Future Over Relation to
Crop 1960 Base (After 1960 Base Potential Potential
Reclamation) (Percent) (Percent)
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

Kharif:
Rice (paddy) 18 43 239 67 64
Cotton (seed cotton) 8 33 412 60 55
Maize 12 37 308 70 53
Millets 6 28 467 55 51
Fodder (fresh weight) 300 654 218 1,000 65
Vegetables 110 176 160 300 59
Miscellaneous 17 37 218 65 57

Rabi:
Wheat 12 41 342 60 68
Oilseeds 5 16 320 35 46
Fodder (fresh weight) 310 616 199 1,000 62
Pulses 6 20 334 35 57
Vegetables 110 176 160 250 70
Miscellaneous 17 37 218 65 57

Perennial:
Sugar cane (gur) 34 71 209 120 59
Fruit 28 107 382 170 63
Average 100% 279% 59%


In summary, future yields of individual crops will range from about 1.6 to 4.7 times,
and average 2.8 times, 1960 yields. However, the future yields expected after reclamation
are significantly less than the estimated full potential yields, most of which have already
been exceeded by numerous farmers in the Punjab.











LEGEND

.---.. #- '--Potential Yield for
Northern Indus Plains
'-...1---Projected Yield for
.7 Northern Indus Plains

4'-1-Average 1961-64 Yields
A of selected countries
and world average


~1
I I


I I
I I
I I
I I
I I


I I
I I
I I
I I
I I

I I


r-----4





40


SEED
COTTON


FY-I---


S--- -I


WHEAT MAIZE RICE
(PADDY)
COMPARATIVE YIELDS OF CROPS
(FROM "FAO PRODUCTION YEARBOOK ,1964")


SUGAR CANE
(GUR)


100









PART III


DEVELOPMENT CONCEPTS


According to the foregoing, Pakistan has enormous resources of land and water; these
are highly developed, and as a result irrigated agriculture is by far the dominant sector of
the economy. But the agricultural economy has been moribund for decades. It has shown
some vigor in recent years largely because of the development by public and private interests
of ground-water supplies for irrigation. However, the recent growth rate of about two to
three percent per annum is inadequate for the needs of the economy, and with respect to
the Northern Indus Plains, it is only a fraction of the potential which could be attained
under an aggressive program of development. Moreover, even this modest growth probably
cannot be sustained without continued public works because private development will reach
a plateau when about 40 percent of the culturable lands are served by private wells.


BASIC CONCEPTS

The agricultural economy of the region is poised for the kinds of radical changes
and accelerated growth which have been experienced in similar terrains where modern irri-
gated agriculture is practiced. This appraisal is indicated by analysis of the factors invol-
ved in agricultural development including the resource base, existing development, infra-
structure, demand for agricultural products, and farmers attitudes and incentives. The only
obvious restraints to the development of a modern agricultural economy are water factors -
irrigation supply and drainage.

Alleviation of water supply deficiencies and drainage hazards will trigger a revolu-
tion in agriculture, which, coupled with progressive government programs for procurement
and distribution of fertilizers, selected seeds, and pesticides, will bring production up to
the level of world standards for regions where irrigation is practiced on a large scale.

In view of the large expanding gap in West Pakistan between agricultural production
and demand, the latter including both internal uses and the requirements of the export trade,
it is evident that time is of paramount importance. Development policies must emphasize
rate of growth the faster the better rather than conservation criteria.


PUBLIC WORKS AND THE ROLE OF PRIVATE DEVELOPMENT

The required level and rate of water-resource development can only be achieved
through massive government works programs which ultimately must serve all of the irrigated
lands.









PART III


DEVELOPMENT CONCEPTS


According to the foregoing, Pakistan has enormous resources of land and water; these
are highly developed, and as a result irrigated agriculture is by far the dominant sector of
the economy. But the agricultural economy has been moribund for decades. It has shown
some vigor in recent years largely because of the development by public and private interests
of ground-water supplies for irrigation. However, the recent growth rate of about two to
three percent per annum is inadequate for the needs of the economy, and with respect to
the Northern Indus Plains, it is only a fraction of the potential which could be attained
under an aggressive program of development. Moreover, even this modest growth probably
cannot be sustained without continued public works because private development will reach
a plateau when about 40 percent of the culturable lands are served by private wells.


BASIC CONCEPTS

The agricultural economy of the region is poised for the kinds of radical changes
and accelerated growth which have been experienced in similar terrains where modern irri-
gated agriculture is practiced. This appraisal is indicated by analysis of the factors invol-
ved in agricultural development including the resource base, existing development, infra-
structure, demand for agricultural products, and farmers attitudes and incentives. The only
obvious restraints to the development of a modern agricultural economy are water factors -
irrigation supply and drainage.

Alleviation of water supply deficiencies and drainage hazards will trigger a revolu-
tion in agriculture, which, coupled with progressive government programs for procurement
and distribution of fertilizers, selected seeds, and pesticides, will bring production up to
the level of world standards for regions where irrigation is practiced on a large scale.

In view of the large expanding gap in West Pakistan between agricultural production
and demand, the latter including both internal uses and the requirements of the export trade,
it is evident that time is of paramount importance. Development policies must emphasize
rate of growth the faster the better rather than conservation criteria.


PUBLIC WORKS AND THE ROLE OF PRIVATE DEVELOPMENT

The required level and rate of water-resource development can only be achieved
through massive government works programs which ultimately must serve all of the irrigated
lands.




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