Citation
Report on land and water development in the Indus Plain.

Material Information

Title:
Report on land and water development in the Indus Plain.
Added title page title:
Land and water development in the Indus Plain.
Creator:
White House Office Department of Interior Panel on Waterlogging and Salinity in West Pakistan
Place of Publication:
Washington D.C.
Publisher:
U.S. Government Printing Office
Publication Date:
Language:
English
Physical Description:
3, xviii, 454 p. illus., maps (5 fold in pocket) 27 cm.

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Farming ( LCSH )
Agriculture ( LCSH )
Farm life ( LCSH )
Water resources development -- Indus River Valley ( LCSH )
Land -- Pakistan; Indus Valley ( LCSH )
Spatial Coverage:
Asia -- Pakistan -- Indus Plain

Notes

General Note:
Bibliography: p. 376-407.
Funding:
Electronic resources created as part of a prototype UF Institutional Repository and Faculty Papers project by the University of Florida.

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Holding Location:
University of Florida
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The University of Florida George A. Smathers Libraries respect the intellectual property rights of others and do not claim any copyright interest in this item. This item may be protected by copyright but is made available here under a claim of fair use (17 U.S.C. §107) for non-profit research and educational purposes. Users of this work have responsibility for determining copyright status prior to reusing, publishing or reproducing this item for purposes other than what is allowed by fair use or other copyright exemptions. Any reuse of this item in excess of fair use or other copyright exemptions requires permission of the copyright holder. The Smathers Libraries would like to learn more about this item and invite individuals or organizations to contact Digital Services (UFDC@uflib.ufl.edu) with any additional information they can provide.
Resource Identifier:
ocm0182 ( NOTIS )

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Full Text
1c00Y Dr. P. E. HL~2k~
REPORT ON LAND AND WATER DEVELOPMENT IN THE INDUS PLAIN By
THE, WHITE HOUSE-DEPARTMENT OF INTERIOR PANEL ON
WATERLOGGING AND SALINITY. IN WEST PAKISTAN
The White House Wash ington, D. C. January, 1964




THIE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
March 25, 1964
Dear Mr. President:
Here is the report on "Land and Water Development in the Indus Plain."1 It was prepared by the expert panel appointed by President Kennedy. This panel consisted of specialists in agriculture, hydrology, engineering, and the economic and social sciences. It was assembled by Dr. Jerome B. Widsner, then Special Assistant to the President for Science and Technology, and was given support by Secretary of the Interior Stewart Udall. The Chairman of the Panel, and its directing spirit, has been Dr. Roger Revelle, then Science Advisor to Mr. Udall, and now University Dean of Research at the University of California.
We are much indebted to Dr. Revelle and the devoted members of his panel who assisted him. In their work, they became warm and enthusiastic friends of Pakistan.
I hope the data and conclusions contained in this report will be of practical help to you. I know you have difficult decisions to make in overcoming waterlogging and excessive salinity in the Indus Plain. You are determined to benefit your people through the maximum use of your land and water resources. If this report is valuable to you, it would please me greatly.
This report is a good example of how the sharing of scientific and technical knowledge can contribute to the welfare of our people and to the cause of peace and understanding.
Our people learned much from your people in working on this challenging project. I hope the future will draw us closer together, as together we solve common problems.
Sincerely,
His Excellency
Mohammed Ayub Khan
President of Pakistan
Rawalpindi




MEMBERSHIP OF THE WHITE HOUSE DEPARTMENT OF INTERIOR
PANEL ON WATERLOGGING AND SALINITY IN WEST PAKISTAN
Dr. Roger Revelle, Chairman Dr. Walter Langbein
University Dean of Research U. S. Geological Survey
University of California Washington, D. C.
Berkeley, California
Dr. R. A. Laudise
Mr. John B. Blandford Bell Telephone Laboratories
Consultant, AID Murray Hill, New Jersey
Washington, D. C.
Mr. George D. Lukes
Dr. C. A. Bower, Director Center for Naval Analyses of the
U. S. Salinity Laboratory Franklin Institute
Riverside, California Institute of Naval Studies
1710 H Street, N. W.
Professor Ayers Brinser Washington, D. C.
University of Michigan
Ann Arbor, Michigan Mr. Thomas Maddock
U. S. Geological Survey
Dr. Robert P. Burden Washington, D. C.
Harvard University
Cambridge, Massachusetts Professor A. S. Michaels
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Professor Robert Dorfman Cambridge, Massachusetts
Harvard University
Cambridge, Massachusetts Mr. R. C. Reeve
U. S. Salinity Laboratory
Mr. Rollin Eckis, President Riverside, California
Richfield Oil Corporation
Los Angeles, California Mr. Herbert Skibitske
U. S. Geological Survey
Professor Walter P. Falcon Phoenix, Arizona
Harvard University
Cambridge, Massachusetts Professor Harold A. Thomas, Jr.
Harvard University
Professor Robert Gomer Cambridge, Massachusetts
University of Chicago
Urbana, Illinois Professor David K. Todd
Professor John Isaacs University of California,
University of California, San Diego Berkeley, California La Jolla, California Dr. C. A. Wadleigh, Director
Dr. Leonhard Katz, President Soil and Water Conservation Research
Astro-Dynamics, Inc. Agricultural Research Service
Burlington, Massachusetts Washington, D. C.
*Formerly Science Adviser to the Secretary of the Interior




PREFACE
President Johnson on his first world tour as Vice President
visited Pakistan in May of 1961. On his return to the United States, he strongly recommended that President Ayub Khan of Pakistan be invited to visit Washington at an early date. Subsequently, during his official visit to the United States in July, 1961, President Ayub dwelt upon his serious concern with the waterlogging and salinity which threatened the livelihood of millions of cultivators living on the Indus Plain and the entire welfare of Pakistan. President Kennedy was immediately responsive and undertook to bring together a, group of American experts capable of advising the Pakistani authorities on their approach to solving this problem. Such a, response was characteristic of President Kennedyts readiness to utilize the best of American's expert knowledge in the solution of problems affecting the welfare not only of citizens of the United States but of peoples throughout the world.
President Kennedy turned to the undersigned to assemble the team of experts and to provide the necessary leadership. We were fortunate in obtaining as Chairman for the Panel Dr. Roger Revelle, then Science Adviser to the Secretary of the Interior. Dr. Revelle has given devoted service to this undertaking, which culmina !s in the c ompletion of this report.




2
The advisory task performed by Dr. Revelle and his colleagues on the Panel has been complex and rather lengthy. It has required the pooling of knowledge from many diverse fields and disciplines, visits to Pakistan by members of the Panel, consultations and other exchanges of views with Pakistani experts and officials, and a pioneering effort in the application of computer technology to a problem of this kind. The result is a blueprint, boldly designed not only to avert the creeping dangers of waterlogging and salinity in the Indus Plain, but to move forward to a substantial increase in agricultural productivity serving the interest of all Pakistan.
As the design unfolded in the minds of the American experts, Pakistani authorities were themselves proceeding with their plans and operations for reclamation in the Indus Plain. Theory, expert advice, and practice have already thus become interwoven in a matrix hard to disentangle. How far the Pakistan authorities will be able to implement the findings of the report can only be determined by the responsible authorities in Pakistan itself. In any event, the conclusions of the report and the methodology employed represent a pioneering effort in the application of science and technology to the challenging problems of development. We hope that the techniques




-3
developed can be of benefit to the many countries where, such problems weigh heavily on governments and their people.
Stewart L. Udall Secretary of the Interior
q Jerome B. iesner
Special Assi tant to the President for Science and Technology January 23, 1964







FOREWORD
This report is a considerably modified final version of a draft submitted in September 1962. The modifications reflept, in part, comments received from many knowledgeable persons, particularly in West Pakistan, and, in part, increases in our own understanding. Although this final version is as complete and accurate as we can make it, it should, nevertheless, be considered as only one step in the continuing process of thought and action that is required to fulfill the great potentialities of the Indus Plain.
No group of citizens of one nation, no matter how grave their interest and
con-cern, can learn enough about the internal affairs of another to do more than advance partial answers to its problems. This is particularly true when the problems are as complex and the country as large as is the case in Pakistan.
We are convinced that agriculture in the Indus Plain can be lifted off the
subsistence level and set on the road to a rapid, large, and continuing increase in productivity, which could transform the entire economic life of West Pakistan. However, such a transformation will require an integrated, determined, and sustained attack of unprecedented scale upon the principal causes of low agricultural productivity. Marshalling of the necessary capital required for the physical construction, including foreign exchange, is essential. The creation of an effective, well-staffed, skilled administration is equally necessary. In particular, success will depend on establishing strong determination in officials and workers at all levels, and on building strong motivation in the farmers more rapidly than has been heretofore achieved.
Our report contains rather detailed recommendations concerning the meas ures that must be taken to accomplish this great undertaking, but we have only ventured suggestions as to how these measures shall be carried out. We believe it would be presumptuous on our part to do otherwise; the challenge and the opportunity can only rest with the Government and the people of Pakistan. The task will require that they make difficult phoices and heroic efforts. Other countries can help in various ways, but the decisions and the impetus must come from within Pakistan.
All members of the Panel contributed information and ideas to the report, and wrote draft chapters or chapter sections related to their special fields of interest. This final version, however, was worked out by a sub -committee of the Panel, consisting of Messrs. Burden, Dorfman, Falcon, Thomas, and Revelle, and they accept responsibility for it.
The report could not have been completed without the devoted work of many persons who were not members of the Panel. A few of those who deserve




special mention are: Michael Feiring, Hershel L. Fleming, Joseph Harrington, Flora Wang, Peter Naylor, Walter Spofford, Nori Uchida, and Pauline Wyckoff. Above all, we are indebted to Mr. Ghulam Ishaq Khan, Chairman of the Water and Power Development Authority of West Pakistan, and to the many members of his staff who taught us generously and patiently about the problems of land and water in the Indus Plain.




CONTENTS
Page
Summary ----------------------------------------------------------- 1
A Plan of Action ------------------------------------------ 4
Potential Increases in Agricultural Output ------------------- 7
Estimated Costs ------------------------------------------ 10
The Water Budget ----------------------------------------- 12
Water Development ----------------------------------------- 15
Organization and Management ------------------------------ 16
Research and Development --------------------------------- 17
Chapter, 1 THE PROBLEM ------------------------------------------ 19
Introduction ---------------------------------------------- 19
The Land ------------------------------------------------ 21
Land Forms -------------------------------------------- 23
Areas of Easily Culturable Land -------------------------- 25
The Water ----------------------------------------------- 27
Weather and Climate ------------------------------------- 27
Average Annual Rainfall --------------------------------- 27
Average Seasonal Rainfall -------------------------------- 28
Effective Precipitation ---------------------- ------------- 28
Variations in Rainfall from Year to Year ------------------ 29
Temperature -------------------------------------------- 29
Humidity -------------- I -------------- ------------------- 30
Potential Evapotranspiration ----------------------------- 30
Floods and Flood Damage -------------------------------- 31
River and Canal Waters ------------------------------- -- 32
The People ------------------------------------------------ 34
Size of the Present Population ---------------------------- 34
Observed and Projected Rates of Population Growth --------- 36 Age Distribution ---------------------------------------- 37
Density of Population and Rate of Increase in
Different Regions ------------------------------------- 37
Proportion of Rural and Urban Populations ------------- --- 38
Education ---------------------------------------------- 38
Agriculture Land, Water, and People in Combination -------- 38
Agriculture in Pakistan's Economy ------------------------ 38
Proportion of Farm Production in Different Regions -------- 39 Food and Other Crops ----------------------------------- 40
VII




Page
Chapter 1 THE PROBLEM (Continued)
(Agriculture Land, Water, and People in Combination) -Cont.
Food and Money Values ---------------------------------- 40
Growing Seasons and Water Requirements ----------------- 40
Cropping Pattern and Productivity ------------------------ 41
Effect of Irrigation -------------------------------------- 42.
Livestock and Poultry ----------------------------------- 42
Variability in Production, Acreage under Cultivation,
and Yield ----------------------------------------- --- 43
The Pattern of Land Use --------------------------------- 43
Changes in Gross Sown Area with Time ------------------- 45
Marketing and Prices ----------------------------------- 46
Storage and Transportation ------------------------------ 48
Credit ------------------------------------------------- 48
The State of Agriculture and the People's Food Supply ---- -- 49 Other Needs for Agricultural Expansion ------------------- 53
Comparison of Crop Yields with Those of Other Countries_ 54
The Problem of Waterlogging and Salinity ---------------- --- 55
Waterlogging and Salinity in Former Bahawalpur ----------- 58
Waterlogging and Salinity in Former Sind ------------------ 59
Total Areas of Waterlogged and Severely Saline Land ------- 62 Effects on Agricultural Production ------------------------ 62
Future Trends of Waterlogging and Salinity ---------------- 63.
The Problem of Agriculture -------------------------------- 64
Chapter 2 TECHNICAL MEANS OF ACHIEVING INCREASED
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION -------------------------- 96
Increasing Crop Yields on Land Now under Cultivation -------- 96
More Irrigation Water and Its Proper Allocation to
the Land --------------------------------------------- 97
Water Management and Salinity Control --------------- ---- 97
Greater Use of Commercial Fertilizers ------- ----------- 100
Recent and Planned Use of Nitrogen Fertilizers ------------ 102
Phosphate Fertilizer ------------------------------------ 103
Greater Use of Pest Control ------------------------------ 107
Improved Seed ------------------------------------------ 107
Greater Utilization of Salt-tolerant Crops ----------------- 108
Better Cultivati n Tools and Practices, and More
Efficient Bullocks ------------------------------------- 109
Expansion of Agricultural Research and Education ---------- 109 Further Agricultural Diversification ---------------------- 110
Increasing Production by Reclaiming Deteriorated or
AbandonedSaline Land -------------------------------- 111
VIII




Page
Chapter 2 TECHNICAL MEANS OF ACHIEVING INCREASED
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION (Continued)
The Principle of Interaction -------------------------------- 114
Schedule for Increasing Production -------------------------- 115
Chapter 3 A PLAN OF ACTION -------------------------------------- 129
The Need for a Reorientation of Effort ----------------------- 129
Concentration on a Series of Limited Project Areas ----------- 130
Size of the Project Areas -------------------------------- 131
Timing ------------------------------------------------ 131
Hopeful Factors ------------------------------------------ 132
Difficulties and Problems ---------------------------------- 133
Land Tenure and Farm Fragmentation -------------------- 133
Inadequacy of Irrigation Water ---------------------------- 134
Difficulty of Drainage ----------------------------------- 134
Lack of Development in Other Sectors of the Economy ------- 134
Necessary Conditions for the Success of the Plan ------------- 135
Support by the Provincial Government --------------------- 135
Communication with the Farmers ------------------------- 135
Motivation of the Farmers ------------------------------- 136
Problems of Heterogeneity ------------------------------- 138
Administration -------------------------------------------- 138
Selection of Project Areas in the Former Punjab ------------- 139Project Areas in Former Sind ------------------------------ 142
The Factors of Production ---------------------------------- 142
Water for Irrigation ------------------------------------- 142
Fertilizer ---------------------------------------------- 145
Improved Seeds ----------------------------------------- 148
Pest Control and Plant Protection ------------------------ 149
Improved Practices ------------------------------------- 150
Intensifying Agricultural Production ------------------------ 150
The Frontline Services ---------------------------------- 150
Trials of Different Methods for Introducing Innovation ------- 152 Data Collection and Analysis ----------------------------- 153
Agricultural Credit.. Insurance, and Storage ---------------- 153
Schedule of Activities ------------------------------------- 157
First Year ---------------------------------------------- v 157
Second Year -------------------------------------------- 157
Third Year --------------------------------------------- 157
Fourth Year -------------------------------------------- 158
Financing and Staffing ------------------------------------- 158
Ix




Page
Chapter 4 ORGANIZATION AND MANAGEMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT IN PROJECT AREAS --------------------- 167
General Considerations ------------------------------------ 167
Public Administration Background -------------------------- 169
Reform ------------------------------------------------ 170
The Administrative Environment of Project Operations -------- 172
Water ------------------------------------------------- 173
Agriculture -------------------------------------------- 174
Local Institutions --------------------------------------- 175
Inventory of Administrative Implications -------------------- 176
Tubewell Operational Investigations ----------------------- L. 176
Integration of Tubewell and Canal Water Supplies ----------- 176
Soil Reclamation and Optimum Use of Irrigation Water ------ 177 Technical Aid to'Farmers ------------------------------- 177
Research and Experimentation --------------------------- 177
Agricultural Supplies and Credit -------------------------- 178
Relation to Provincial and National Planning --------------- 178
Role of the Basic Democracies --------------------------- 178
Record and Reporting ------------------------------------ 178
The Project Director ------------------------------------ 179
The Policy Making Board -------------------------------- 179
Recommendations on Organization and Management ----------- 179
Use of the Soil Reclamation Board ------------------------ 180
Reconstitution of the Board ------------------------------ 180
Powers of the Board ------------------------------------ 180
Executive Officers of the Board -------------------------- 181
The Project Director ------------------------------------ 181
Deputation for Departments of Agriculture and Irrigation ---- 181
Relations with the Department of Agriculture and
Irrigation -------------------------------------------- 182
Agreement with Other Agencies -------------------------- 182
Organization of the Project Administration ---------------- 182
Problems of Trained Personnel --------------------------- 183
Coordination of Project Areas ---------------------------- 183
Financing ---------------------------------------------- 183
Long Range Goals ----------------------------------------- 184
Chapter 5 ECONOMIC APPRAISAL OF THE AGRICULTURAL
MODERNIZATION PLAN -------------------------------- 185
Prospects for the Former Punjab --------------------------- 185
Benefits from Tubewell Water ---------------------------- 185
Benefits from Agricultural Improvement ------------------ 194
X




Page
Chapter 5 ECONOMIC APPRAISAL OF THE AGRICULTURAL
MODERNIZATION PLAN (Continued)
(Prospects for the Former Punjab) -Continued
Recapitulation for an Illustrative Project Area ------------- 199
Possible Total Production Increases in the Former
Punjab and Former Bahawa1pur ------------------------- 200
Marketing, Credit, and Organizational Problems ----------- 201
Prospects in Former Sind --------------------------------- 203
Possible Effects of Reorientation toward a Market
Economy --------------------------------------------- 203
Possible Economic Benefits from Tubewell Water ---------- 211
Chapter 6 PRODUCTIVITY INCREASES FROM FURTHER
AGRICULTURAL DIVERSIFICATION ---------------------- 232
Increasing Animal Protein Production ----------------------- 233
Livestock Alternatives ----------------------------------- 233
Poultry Alternatives ------------------------------------- 238
Fresh Water Fish Alternatives --------------------------- 241
Other Diversification Alternatives -------------------------- 245
Fruit, Vegetable, and Specialty Crops --------------------- 246
Forest Products ---------------------------------------- 247
Dairy Products ------------------------------ ---------- 247
Diversification and the West Pakistan Farmer --------------- 249
Summary of Possibilities for Diversification ----------------- 251
Chapter 7 HYDROLOGY --------------------------------------------- 257
Introduction ----------------------------------------------- 257
General Feature s of the Hydrological Regime ---------------- 258
Waterlogging and Salinity ---------------------------------- 260
Hydrologic and Soil Parameters Used in the Water Budget ----- 265 Runoff and Reservoir Storage-Yield Relations ---------------- 266
Water Budget for Future Development ----------------------- 268
Limitations of Surface and Subsurface Drainage ------------ 269
First Level of Development ------------------------------ 269
Second Level of Development ----------------------------- 285
Summary of Water Budget ------------------------------- 288
Hydrological Factors Relating to the Selection of the
Optimal Size of Project Areas ---------------------------- 289
Lateral Infiltration of Groundwater into Project Areas from
Unpumped Lands ---------------------------------------- 290
Computer Solutions of Groundwater Flow Problems --------- 291
Analogue Computer Studies of Effects of Pumping in
Project Areas ---------------------------------------- 292
Analysis of a Modeled Ten-Mile Strip of Aquifer ------------ 292
XI




Page
Chapter 7 HYDROLOGY (Continued)
Lateral Infiltration of Groundwater into Project Areas from
Unpumped Lands (Continued)
Analysis of a Model of a Five Hundred-Well Project in
Chaj Doab --------------------------------------------293
Problems in Regions Having Excessive Salinity in Soil and
Groundwater --------------------------------------------295
Tubewell Operation in Skimming a Shallow Layer of Fresh
Water from a Deep Layer of Saline Water--------------- 297
Rate of Increase of Groundwater Salinity----------------- 301
Digital Computer Simulation of the Hydro-Agronomic Regime-- 306
Computer Program for the Multiwell Model ----------------309
Investigations with the Multiwell Model ----------------------312
Effect of Pumping in Tubewell Fields of Different Size --------314
/ Analysis of Effects of Tubewell Pumping on Water Tables in
Salinity Control and Reclamation Project Number 1 in
Rechna Doab --------------------------------------------316
Tubewell Field Design Considerations ---------------------319
Economic Analysis of Mining of Groundwater in the Northern
Plain -------------------------------------------------- 323
Economic Analysis of Spacing of Tubewells in the Northern
Plain -------------------------------------------------- 325
Costs of Tubewell Systems in Former Sind ------------------325
Relative Cost of Tubewell Water and Regulated Water from
Surface Storage -----------------------------------------326
Lining of Canals with Sealants- -----------------------------327
Hydrological Research ---------------------------------- 327
Mona Pilot Project -------------------------------------- 328
Water Table Variations ---------------------------------- 328
Vertical Permeability and Groundwater Recharge ----------- 328
Tubewell Construction -----------------------------------329
Vertical Variation of Groundwater Quality -----------------329
Canal Leakage and Control -------------------------------330
Water Quality Effects on Soil Properties ------------------ 330
Monomolecular Films for Evapotranspiration Reduction ----- 331 Conclusion ---------------------------------------------- 331
Chapter 8 RESEARCH AND EDUCATION ------------------------------ 364
Program Monitoring and Evaluation -------------------------365
Socio Economic Research ----------------------------------366
Population Research ----------------------------------- 370
Physical-Biological Research ------------------------------ 370
Agricultural Research -----------------------------------370
XII




Page
Chapter 8 RESEARCH AND EDUCATION (Continued)
(Physical -Biological Research) -Continued
Plants for Special Environments -------------------------- 371
Methods of Cultivation ----------------------------------- 371
Agricultural Implements_ ------------------------------- 372
Performance and Design Studies -------------------------- 373
Canal Linings and Sealants ------------------------------- 373
Recharge of Aquifer ------------------------------------- 373
Education and Training ------------------------------------ 374
Bibliography -------------------------------------------------------- 376
Appendix A. 1 Potential Evapotranspiration Estimates for West Pakistan,
by W. E. Hiatt ---------------------------------------- 408
Appendix A.2 Quantity of Water Needed for Salinity Control, by
C' A. Bower and R. C. Reeve -------------------------- 413
Appendix A. 3 Reserves of Natural Gas in West Pakistan ----------------- 415
Appendix A. 5 Response of Agricultural Yields to Water in the Punjab,
by R. Dorfman --------------------------------------- 417
Appendix A.6 Areas of Further Research for Assessing Livestock
Alternatives in Pakistan ------------------------------- 438
Appendix A.8 Outline of Research Needed for Agricultural Development
in West Pakistan ------------------------------------- 443
ILLUSTRATIONS
Page
1.1 Relation of Agricultural Yield to Percent of Canal-irrigated
Area in the Former Punjab --------------------------------- 95
3.1 Population Increase and Agricultural Productivity Increase for
West Pakistan ---------------------------------------------- 166
6.1 Cross Section of "Excavated Pond ------------------------------ 256
6.2 Cross Section of "Surface Pond --------------------------------- 256
kill




Page
7.1 Distribution of Monthly Runoffs of the Indus, Jhelum and
Chenab Rivers (1921-1946) ----------------------------------337
7.2 Water Level Fluctuations in Selected Observation Wells in
Rechna Doab from 1905 to 1960 -----------------------------338
7.3 Water Budget for First Level of Development: Diversions to
Former Punjab and Bahawalpur and to Former Sind -----------339
7.4 Schematic Diagram: Saline Area Problem ---------------------340
7.5 Water Budget for First Level of Development: Former Punjab
and Bahawalpur Regions. Surface Distribution, Recovery of
Recharge, and Rates of Mining in Saline and Non-Saline
Areas ----------------------------------------------------341
7.6 Relationship between the Benefit and Cost Parameters, L, F,
and M, and the Optimum Choice of Values for the Decision
Variables, Y, Z, and W ------------------------------------- 342
7.7 Water Budget for the First Level of Development. Former
Sind Region: Surface Distribution; Losses to Groundwater
and in Non-beneficial Evapotranspiration --------------------- 343
7.8 Modeled Ten-mile Strip of Aquifer: Locations of Canal and
Tubewells in the Prototype and in the Electric Analogue
Computer -------------------------------------------------344
7.9 Graphs Showing Water Drawdowns in the Ten-mile Strip Aquifer
after Pumping Twenty Years; Total Discharge from 10
Wells = 8.6 x 106 gpd. No recharge --------------------------345
7.10 Graphs Showing Water Table Drawdowns in the Ten-mile Strip
Aquifer after Pumping Twenty Years; Total Discharge from
10 Wells = 8.6 x 106 gpd. Total Recharge = 5.90 x 106 gpd- ---- 346
7.11 Modeled Ten-mile Strip of Aquifer: Water Table Profiles for
Six Analogue Computer Studies with Different Pumping and
Recharge Rates ........ ...................................- 347
7.12 Model Tubewell Project in Chaj Doab: Water Tables after 20
Years of Pumping from 500 Wells at 600 gpm/Well; Recharge
5 x 106 gpd/mile along Stream and 105 gpd/sq. Mile over
Tubewell Area ---------------------------------------------348
7.13 Profiles of Water Table along Section A A' of Doab Model,
West Pakistan after Pumping 500 Wells 20 Years; Four
Computer Runs with Various Pumping and Recharge Rates ----- 349
7.14 Graph Showing Maximum Possible Well Production of Fresh
Water without Admixture of Salt Water -----------------------350
7.15 Schematic Diagram of Salt Flow Model ------------------------- 351
7.16 Wedge Shaped Volume of Aquifer-----------------........ _352
7.17 Numerical Solution of 5 by 16 Flow Net: Ten Stream Tubes ------353
7.18 Salt Concentration of Applied Irrigation Water (No excess
salt in soil) -----------------------------------------------354
~IV




7.19 Salt Concentration of Applied Irrigation Water (60T /acre Page
of salt in soil) ---.------------------------------------------ 355
7.20 Schematic Diagram of Basic Hydrologic Model for Digital
Computer Simulation --------------------------------------- 356
7.21 Model of Well Locations ---------------------------------------357
7.22 Multiwell Model: Surface Elevations, and Other Parameters for
25 Cells ---------------------------------------------------358
7.23 Multiwell Model: Well Location, 14 Runs ----------------------- 359
7.24 Effect of Annual Irrigation Target, UT, on Rate of Drawdown ------360 7.25 Details of Seasonal Futain-------------361
7.26 Multiwell Model: Drawdown vs. Pumping Rae---------362
7.27 Drawdowns across Rectangular Project Areas Having Widths
of 4.5, 14, and 41 Miles, Showing the Effect of Lateral Infiltration after 20 Years of Pumping. The Maximum
Drawdown without Infiltration in 20 Years is 67 Feet ----------- 363
TABLES
Page
1.1.1 Estimated Potential Evapotranspiration and Estimated Effective
Precipitation for Representative Stations in West Pakistan
(by Rabi and Kharif Seasons) ----------------------------------67
1.1.2 Approximate Value of Crops Destroyed by Floods, 1948-60 ---------68
1.2 River Waters and Their Uses in the Indus Plain ------------------69
1.3 Past and Projected Populations of West Pakistan ------------------70
1.4 Population by Districts and Regions in West Pakistan --------------71
1.5 Urban Population of West Pakistan, 1951 and 1961 -----------------72
1.5.1 Approximate Average Value of Pakistan Exports and
Imports, 1959-61 ----------- m-------------------------------73
16 Average Agricultural Production in West Pakistan by Regions --- 74 1.7 Average Agricultural Production in West Pakistan by Crops --------75
1.8 Average Agricultural Production in Canal-irrigated but not
very Waterlogged and Saline Districts in the Former Punjab~ ---- 77
1.9 Average Agricultural Production in Canal-irrigated but
Waterlogged and/or Saline Districts in the Former Punjab -------78
1.10.1 Average Agricultural Production in Districts with Partial Canal
Irrigation in the Former Punjab ------------------------------79
1.10.2 .Average Agricultural Production in Un-irrigated or Slightly
Irrigated Districts in the Former Punjab -----------------------80
XV




Page
1.11.1 Average Agricultural Production in Former Bahawalpur --------- 81
1.11.2 Average Agricultural Production in Former Sind ------ --------- 82
1.12 Land Use in the Indus Plain and Surrounding Areas -------------- 83
1.13 Average Annual Increases in Gross Area Sown ------------------ 84
1.14 Nutritional Value of Agricultural Production in West Pakistan ---- 86
1.15 Total Imports and Imports of Sugar and Food Grains into
Pakistan, 1952-60 -------------------------------------- --- 88
1.16 Estimated 1960 Gross Farm Income Per Capita and Per Farm
Worker in Parts of West Pakistan --------------------------- 89
1.17 Comparison of Agricultural Productivity in Different Countries
and Regions ----------------------------------------------- 90
1.18 Agricultural Productivity in Different Countries and Regions
Compared with Pakistan ------------------------------------ 92
1.19 Comparison of Changes in Agricultural Productivity in Different
Countries and Regions --------------------------------- ---- 93
1.20 Comparison of Use of Fertilizers and Pesticides in Different
Countries and Regions ------------------------------- ------ 94
2.2 Percentage Increase in Quantity of Water Required for
Irrigation ------------------------------------------------- 117
2.3 Response of Wheat to Fertilizer in West Pakistan, 1960-61 -------- 118
2.4 Observed and Estimated Responses of Different Crops to
Nitrogen Fertilizer in Irrigated Areas of West Pakistan ------- 119 2.4.1 Recent Use of Fertilizer in likest Pakistan ---------------------- 121
2.5 Planning Commission Estimates of Increase in Yield due to
Plant Protection and Improved Seeds ------------------- ----- 122
2.6 Estimated Yield Increases of Various Crops from Soil
Desalination as a Function of Initial Salt Content -------------- 123/
2.7 Effects of Tube Well Water in Jaranwala Reclamation Scheme
Area Part I--.; --------------------------------------------- 124
2.8 Influence of Nitrogen Supply on Yield Increase of Bermudagrass from Soil Desalination. -------------------------------- 125
2.9 Interaction between Irrigation Water and Fertilizer or Soil
Fertility -------------------------------------------------- 126
2.10 Interactions of Fertilizer, Irrigation Water Supply, and Plant
Variety (Experiments in the Former Punjab) ------------------ 128
3.1 Wheat and Rice Production in Five Districts of the Former
Punjab ----------------------------------------------- ---- 160
3.2 Area Owned including Uncultivated Area by Size of Holdings
in the Former Punjab -------------------------------------- 163
3.3 Tentative Estimate of Personnel Requirements for a One
Million Acre Project --------------------------------------- 164
XVI




Page
3.4 Estimated Capital and Operating Cost of First Stages of
Agricultural Development in the Former Punjab and Former
Bahawalpur ----------------------------------------------- 165
5.1 Estimates of Irrigation Requirements for Selected Crops --------213
5.2 Apparent Depths of Irrigation Plus Effective Rainfall, Lower
Chenab Canal ---------------------------------------------214
5.3 Sufficiency of Water Supply for Major Crops Planted -------------2i5
5.4 Actual and Potential Yields, Major Crops, Lower Chenab
Canal Region ----------------------------------------------216
5.5 Land and Water Use on a Typical Million Acre Tract ------------217
5.6 Water Use on Million Acre Tract Served by Lower Chenab
Canal ----------------------------------------------------218
5.7 Effect of Current Salt Contamination on Yields, Rechna Doab ----- 219
5.8 Increases in Yield and Value of Wheat Crops from Use of
Nitrogen and Phosphate Fertilizer ---------------------------220
50 Increase in Production Resulting from Addition of Nitrogen
Fertilizer to Selected Crops in Canal Irrigated but Only Slightly Waterlogged and Saline Districts in the Former
Punjab ----------------------------------------------- ----221
5.10 Economic Benefits of Tubewell Water and Agricultural
Modernization in a Million Acre Tract -----------------------222
5.11 Cropping Pattern Assumed in Computing Potential Increase in
Crop Value -----------------------------------------------223
5.12 Increases in Yields per Acre for Increased Irrigation and
Application of Nitrogen Fertilizer, Improved Seeds, and
Plant Protection -------------------------------------------224
5.13 Current Production Pattern for Khairpur -----------------------225
5.14 Potential Increases in the Value of Output by Changing
Production Patterns in Khairpur -----------------------------226
5.15 Land Requirements for Crops of Khairpur ----------------------227
5.16 Forage Yields per Acre, and Livestock Requirements per Head--- 228
5.17 Monthly Water Requirements of Crops of Khairpur, including
Total Monthly Supplies of Irrigation Water Available -----------229
5.18 Linear Programming Model (IA) for Khairpur Feeder West ------230
5.19 Possible Effects of Additional Irrigation Water from Tubewells
on Agricultural Production in Khairpur ----------------------231
6.1 Vegetable Crops of the Irrigated Arid Valleys of California ...------- 252
6.2 Fruit and Nut Crops of the Irrigated Arid Valleys of California --- 254
6.3 Salinity Tolerances of Fruits and Vegetables in the Irrigated
Arid Valleys of California ---------------------------------- 255
XVII




Page
7.1 Mean and Standard Deviation of Flows in the Indus, Jhelum,
and Chenab Rivers (1921-48)-332
7.2 Summary of Computations of Skimming Well Formulation
Isotropic Cases -------------------------------------------333
7.3 Summary of Tubewell Operations in Project No. 1 during the
Year 1961-1962 -------------------------------------------- 334
7.4 Cost Analysis of Tubewell Systems-335
7.5 Cost Analysis of Tubewell Water with Three Different Tubewell
Spacings------------------------------------------------- 336
A.1.1 Estimate of Potential Evapotranspiration for Selected Stations
in West Pakistan ------------------------------------------411
A.5.1 Parameters of Water Response Curves ------ ------------------- 430
A.5.2 Estimated Water Supply by Canal and Season-------------------- 434
A. 5.3 Data for Estimating Optimal Cropping Pattern for a Million
Acre Tract -----------------------------------------------436
A.5.4 Illustrative Optimal Cropping Pattern for a Million Acre Tract --- 437
MAPS
(in pocket)
1.1 Map of Former Punjab and Former Bahawalpur and Portions
of Former North West Frontier.
1.2 Average Annual Rainfall, in Inches
1.3 Average Rainfall, in Inches, during Rabi Season.
1.4 Average Rainfall, in Inches, during Kharif Season.
1.5 Estimated Effective Precipitation, in Inches, by Canal Systems
XVIII




SUMMARY
The flat and fertile Indus Plain of West Pakistan, and the great rivers that water it, are one of the major natural resources of the earth. They are a major physical asset of the world's fifth largest country, Pakistan, with its rapidly rowing population of 100 million people. Some 30 million persons dwell on the Plain, and 23 million make their living directly or indirectly from farming it. They produce 75 percent of the food and fibers grown in West Pakistan.
The average annual inflow of the Indus and its tributaries is twice the flow of the Nile, and more than ten times that of the Colorado River. In Europe, only the Danube compares in size, and in the United States, only the Mississippi and the Columbia are larger. Half the water carried onto the Plain by the rivers is diverted into a highly -developed system of irrigation canals, and is used to irrigate some 23 million acres--by far the largest single irrigated region on earth, and two-thirds of all the planted land in West Pakistan. The total area of easily culturable land in the Plain is more than 30 million acres.
Underneath the northern part of the Plain lies a huge lake of fresh
water, equal in volume to ten times the annual flow of the rivers. Else where, there are large reservoirs of natural gas. If properly developed, the underground water could be used as an invaluable supplement to the canal waters, and the known reserves of natural gas could be employed for many decades* as fuel for generation of the electric power needed to pump the underground water, and as a raw material for production of nitrogen fertilizers.
In spite of the great potentialities of the Plain, the fact is that poverty and hunger, not well-fed prosperity, are today the common lot of the people of West Pakistan. They are nowhere more desperately evident that in the farming villages of the countryside. In a country of farmers, food must be imported to provide the most meager diet; the gap between food production and the number of mouths to be fed is widening at an increasing rate. With an average caloric content in the human diet of less than 2,000 calories per person Per day, and an animal protein intake of less than 8 grams, agricultural production in West Pakistan would need to be increased 15 percent to feed the additional livestock required to meet the deficit of animal protein, and another 20 percent to make up the deficit in food grains and other energy -containing foods. The population is growing at a rate of 2.5 to 3 percent per year, while food production is
1




Summary
rising at about 2 percent. Unless the rate of rise in production can be increased, food imports into West Pakistan alone should be over 3 million tons by 1970, roughly 1.5 times the present imports for the entire country.
These dietary deficiencies reflect the fact that West Pakistan, as the rest of the Indian sub-continentJ has one of the lowest agricultural yields of all countries in which agriculture is practiced on a large scale. This is an especially disastrous situation in a region where 77 percent of the population.. lives 6fi-the land, and whose agriculture, such as it is, produces more than half of the people's income directly, and is the indirect source of most of the rest.
So long as its agriculture remains at or below the subsistence level,
Pakistan is condemned to increasing poverty. Although the country aspires to an industrial awakening, the expansion of industrial and commercial enterprises will be slowed by increasing demands for food, and by the lack of purchasing power in the agricultural sector for locally produced goods. Agriculture is the basis of the entire economy, and its fate is the fate of the entire country.
The problem of agriculture in West Pakistan is both a physical and a human one. It is a problem of land, of water, and of people, and of the interactions among them. One of its aspects is the waterlogging and salt accumulation in the soil, caused by poor drainage in the vast, nearly flat plain, that are slowly destroying the fertility of much of the irrigated land. The area of canal irrigated and cultivated land already seriously damaged by waterlogging and salinity is close to 5 million acres, or about 18 percent of the gross sown area in the Indus Plain. Severe salinity damage is increasing at a rate of from 0.2 to 0.4 percent of the irrigated area per year. We have, however, found no reason to believe this rate is accelerating. (See Chapter 1).
Waterlogging and salt accumulation are only one of the problems besetting agriculture in the Plain. The scanty yields that hold the countryside.in poverty are not the consequence of any single deficiency. Even if all the saline land could be reclaimed, and future alienation stopped, the resulting increase in agricultural production would fall far short of present and future needs. Among the other deficiencies are:
1. Shortage of irrigation water. Because of conveyance and other losses, only 34 to 41 million acre feet of canal water are available each year for consumptive use by crops in the 23 million acres of irrigated land. Although crops can be grown throughout the year, and both a winter and a summer growing season are traditional, the amount of water is sufficient to irrigate
2




Summary
only about half the land during each season. Even so, the crops are mnade quately irrigated, particularly in the summer season. Much of the cropped area receives insufficient water to prevent salt accumulation.
2. System of land holding. Many of the farmers are share -cropping
tenants and have little incentive to increase production. Nearly all of them struggle with small and widely -separated plots that multiply the difficulties of efficient use of irrigation water and farm animals, and gravely inhibit changes of traditional practices. Because of the bare subsistence level at which they live, the farmers are reluctant to experiment. They literally cannot afford to take the chance of losing any portion of their small harvest.
3. Primitive methods of cultivation. In West Pakistan we have the waste ful paradox of a great and modern irrigation system pouring its water onto lands cultivated as they were in the Middle Ages. Ploughing is done by a wooden plough of ancient design, pulled by a pair of bulloc~ks enfeebled by undernourishment. Unselected seeds are sown broadcast. Chemical fertilizers and pesticides are comparatively little known. Egypt uses 100 times more fertilizer per acre than does Pakistan; Japan more than 200 times as much; and yields per acre in both countries average about three times those of Pakistan.
4. In adequate services in rural areas. Many farmers in West Pakistan must pay exorbitant rates of interest on needed loans; they do not have access to marketing and transporation facilities; and they do not have the benefit of a skilled extension staff. These handicaps by themselves are enough to force the use of agricultural production patterns that are subsistence -oriented, and low-valued.
What is needed and what can be accomplished in the Indus Plain is a
large, rapid, continuing, and economically beneficial increase in agricultural production. We are convinced that within a generation West Pakistan's agriculture can undergo a revolution of the kind already occurring in the agriculture of Japan, the United States, and other advanced countries. A rate of increase can be established and maintained which will far outrun the growth of population, and will so improve the economic condition of the farmers as to form a base of farm purchasing power for industrial development. This can be done by an integrated appli-cation of all the factors of agricultural production, (See Chapter 2) combined with sufficient capital investment to attain momentum in improvement, and with a sustained human effort to communicate modern agricultural techniques to the farmers, to improve those techniques through research, and to create the economic conditions that will motivate the farmers to help themselves.
3




Summary
A Plan of Action
Because agriculture is beset by a wide range of impediments, the attempt to deal with any one of them in isolation will be balked by the presence of the others. Additional irrigation water, more fertilizer, improved seed and crop varieties, pest and disease control, better cultivation, and saltfree soil are complementary factors of production. Each may increase yields 10 to 30 percent when applied singly, but in combination they can give increases of 200 to 300 percent. The interaction between the factors of production is one of the basic principles of agricultural science (See Chapter ,2.
Yet a coordinated attack on all these fronts is virtually impossible when dealing with a planted area of upwards of 2 5 million acres. Efforts have been made and are being made to deal with every one of the shortcomings we have mentioned, but in isolation rather than in combination. Inevitably the record has been one of too few men with too little material trying to deal with too large a problem.
Our primary recommendation (outlined in detail in Chapter 3) is a
reorientation of strategy to concentrate effort on limited project areas. On the administrative side, we recommend a shift from a structure based on function to one based on area. This shift will permit a coordinate attack on all aspects of the agricultural problem in regions of manageable size.
We propose that the major part of the culturable lands of the Indus Plain be divided into some 25 to 30 project areas of roughly a million acres, each manned by a competent and adequate staff under the supervision of a vigorous director with responsibility for modernizing the agriculture of his region and provided with the necessary equipment and supplies. In each project area, tubewells or other means of drainage would be constructed to control the level of the groundwater and the soil salt content, and, where possible, to increase the supply of irrigation water. Chemical fertilizer containing 40 to 50 million pounds of nitrogen would be provided each year; together with better seeds and means for control of plant diseases, insects, and weeds. Maintenance shops for machinery and motor vehicles, and facilities for in-service training, applied research, and plant experimentation, would be constructed and operated. The hydrology of groundwater control by tubewells, as well as considerations of effective management (see Chapter 7), indicate a unit of about one million acres as the approximate size of an efficient project area, at least in the Former Punj ab.
4




Summary
For many reasons, it would be inadvisable to initiate so vast an enterprise abruptly. For the first five or six years we would propose to bring in project areas at the rate of about one a year. The entire development would be spread over more than a generation. After experience has been gained in the first few projects., it may be possible to proceed more rapidly with the others.
The timetable for a typical project area would include a two-year pre paratory period during which tubewells and drains would be constructed and staff recruited and organized; a five-year period of intense development, during which the target increase in productivity would be 15 percent per year (or 100 percent for the five-year period); followed by growth at a rate of about 7 percent per year indefinitely. If one project were started each year, the cumulative increases in productivity should give a surplus over present agricultural yields per capita for all of West Pakistan after a few years. After 2 5 years, yields per capita would be about twice the present ones, even with a population increase of 3 percent a year.
Our plan consists of and depends on an interweaving of the physical
means of increasing agricultural production with the necessary economic and political factors. Such an ambitious program will require heroic efforts by the Government and people of West Pakistan.
Widespread facilities for extension of credit designed to serve and encourage the farmers are essential. Transportation by pipeline, rail, and road must be developed. The difficulties of administration will require as much attention as any of the technical problems.
The programs in agricultural research., education, and training must be
substantially enlarged. Until Pakistani specialists can be trained., additional personnel from other countries will be needed. During the early years, technical assistance from the advanced countries will be required. Such agencies as the Agency for International Development., and the Peace Corps can make significant contributions but these expedients should be regarded as transitional.
This will be a joint program with the farmers, and their cooperation is
central to success. Each year'in each million acres some hundred thousand farmers and their families will be involved in economic and social change. Each farm family must participate as quickly as possible in the program. To enlist the cooperation of the farmers, supply services for fertilizers, seeds, pesticides, and implements must be developed, crop storage facilities must be built, and a marketing system established that will enable the
5




Summary
farmers to pJIM maximum benefits from increased crop production. Means of transmitting technical and marketing information to the farmers must be enlarged and improved by an order of magnitude.
A long-range program for producing better seeds and plant varieties
should be started immediately, as at least five years are needed before the first seeds will be available for large-scale distribution. The primary breeding efforts should be concentrated in the major education and research centers of West Pakistan, but they should be supplemented by localized breeding and field testing in the project areas to determine local adaptability. At the same time, efforts should be made within the project areas to identify and test the most promising varieties of present seeds. Ultimately, several hundred thousand acres of seed farms will be needed.
Accurate information must be gathered on farm budgets and the results of farm plans, yields from crop-cutting experiments, water applied to crops and other hydrologic data, and soil characteristics. Statistical benchmarks must be established from which progress can be measured. (see Chapter 8).
Programs of agricultural improvement have been attempted in many developing countries, and isolated successes in relatively small areas are a matter of record. No precedent exists, however, for innovation on the scale contemplated in our plan -a million acres a year for twenty-five years. Because of the lack of precedent,. comparative trials should be undertaken concurrently in each of the first few project areas to test the relative social and economic effectiveness of different method fo r inducing innovation. One of the major mission of the early projects should be pro vide sound data for the guidance of later ones.
Especially important is the transfer of technology to farmers, and the study of techniques of transfer should be given high-priority. Three methods seem particularly worthy of further study: (1) the farm-plannhig or budgeting approach, which has been very successful in the United States and which is the basic technique of the intensive program in India, (2) the "cooperative -academy" approach which has yielded excellent results at Comilla in East Pakistan, and (3) the use of mass communication media. The effectiveness, relative to costs in trained manpower and operating expenses, of these methods should be compared with that of other techniques such as use of demonstration farms and orthodox extension services, or simply concentration on prompt and adequate supply of the factors of production, combined with marketing incentives.
In developing the project areas, there should be a strong emphasis on increasing production from lands that have not yet been damaged by
6




Summary
waterlogging and salination, side by side with an early attempt to reclaim saline lands. Severely waterlogged areas can be left for later development. Existing or planned tubewell and drainage construction programs should be taken into account in selection of the initial project areas, as should the fact that from a strictly economic point of view, the highest ratio of benefits to costs should be attainable in the northern most sector of the Plain. Be cause this region has the lowest annual evapotranspiration and the highest rainfall, the amount of tubewell water per acre required for intensive agriculture is significantly smaller than in other areas, and hence the gross sown area can be increased more cheaply. At the same time, large quantities of fresh groundwater are locally available and cost of transporting water can be minimized.
Potential Increases in Agricultural Output
Early momentum in development in the Former Punjab and Former
Bahawalpur should result from the additional irrigation water provided by installation of tubewells in the project areas. This additional water can be used in many ways: to increase the depth of irrigation provided to crops; to enlarge the cropped area, both by increasing the intensity of cultivation and by bringing under the plough lands now fallow or classed as culturable waste; to apply enough water to cultivated land to prevent the accumulation of salts; to leach salts out of deteriorated land; and to irrigate culturable land which is too high for the gravity supply from the canals. One of the major benefits will be to free the farmers from their current dependence on the weather and from the irregularity of canal supplies. The wells will provide not only a more reliable supply of water than ever before, but also water that is better distributed in time.
Computations (given in Chapter 5) for an illustrative million-acre tract in the northern part of the Plain indicate that by adding 1.2 million acre feet of tubewell water to the present canal supply of just over a million / acre feet, the gross value of output could be increased from $32 million (Rs 152 million) to $59 million (Rs 282 million) or by 86 percent. After allowing for increased costs of tillage, the net increase would be $26 million (Rs 124 million) or 82 percent. Use of moderate amounts of nitrogen fertilizer plus plant protection measures and presently available better seeds, when combined with the additional tubewell water in the same area, should give an additional gross increase in crop value of $22 million (Rs 106 million); the net increase after subtracting the cost of fertilizer, plant protection, and seeds, is $17 million (Rs 80 million) or 56 percent of the present net value. The total gross increase from additional water, fertilizer, plant protection, and existing high yield plant varieties, even when their effect are computed separately without taking interaction into account, is 157 percent of the present gross value.
7




Summary
We estimate that the average cost of tubewell water in the Former Punjab and Former Bahawalpur (including costs of amortization, operation, and maintenance of tubewells, drains, salt export, and water conveyance systems) will be $4 (Rs 19) an acre foot, or $4.6 million (Rs 22 million) for the 1.2 million acre feet used in our illustrative project. The ratio of benefits to cost of water alone is 10.7. Including costs of additional and improved seeds, fertilizer, and plant protection, gives a benefit-cost ratio of 4.3.
For the entire canal-irrigated area of the Former Punjab and Former Bahawalpur, 35 million acre feet of tubewell water can be added to the canal supplies. This would be sufficient to permit intensive agriculture over 16.4 million acres, somewhat more than the present net cultivated area. The increase in crop value from additional water, fertilizer, plant protection, and presently available better seeds, could be between $0.9 billion (Rs 4.3 billion) and $0.7 billion (Rs 3.2 billion) compared with the value of present crops of $0.5 billion (Rs 2.4 billion). Because the required amount of tubewell water per acre would be considerably higher than in our illustrative tract in the northern area, the ratio of benefits to cost of water would be less -between 6.5 and 4.8. Counting all costs, the benefit-cost ratio would be between 3.3 and 2.4.
The different measures for increasing production cannot be separated in practice. The fertilizer program cannot succeed without adequate water supplies; the water program presupposes adequate supplies of fertilizer to permit the expansion of acreage under heavily fertilized crops and the maintenance of soil fertility without the wasteful use of fallow; both rely on energetic field protection measures to control the insect and weed infestations that would otherwise accompany more bountiful crops. All aspects of the program rest on vigorous educational and extension efforts to guide the farmers in carrying out their part of the task, ample credit facilities to make the farmers' participation possible, and efficient marketing and distribution facilities for both farm supplies and produce to make their work worthwhile.
The computations in Chapter 5 include only some of the factors of increased production. No simple means exists to demonstrate quantitatively the effects of interaction between agricultural factors. But experience shows, for example, that existing high yield varieties of corn in the Former Punjab exhibit twice as great a response to fertilizer as lower yielding varieties (Chapter 2). As for improved seeds, the large increases from hybrid corn are well known. With the development of higher yielding varieties of wheat adapted to Mexican conditions, a 30 to 50 percent yield increase was obtained. We have not included the potential benefits from
8




Summary
use of phosphate fertilizer, but these should give about a 30 percent net increase. Finally, the less tangible factors of better cultivation practices must be included, such as better grading for irrigation, better seed bed preparation and more timely planting, row planting and cultivation, proper spacing of seeds, more uniform application of fertilizer, and the timely application of irrigation water made possible by tubewells.
Because of the high rate of evapotranspiration and the extremely low rainfall in the Former Sind, an additional acre foot of irrigation water cannot by itself produce as large benefits as in the northernmost part of the Indus Plain. Developments that will permit reorientation from s subsistence to a market economy are thus even more essential for a more prosperous agriculture than in the Former Punjab. However, application of relatively small amounts of tubewell irrigation water to smooth out the irregularities of the canal flow could be extremely beneficial. Our computations show that for an area of 260,000 acres in the Khairpur region of Former Sind, a shift in the cropping pattern toward market products such as sugar, oil seeds, vegetables, orchard crops, and livestock, plus a 30 percent increase in gross sown area, could be obtained by an addition of tubewell water equal to only 15 percent of the canal supplies. The net value of production could be increased from $6 million (Rs 29 million) to $13 million (Rs 63 million) or 117 percent.
Application of nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers, plant protection, improved seeds, and better farming practices to the new cropping pattern and the enlarged gross area sown would bring further increases in Khairpur just as in the Former Punjab and Former Bahawalpur. The principle of interaction among all the factors of production would apply with equal force.
With the present inadequacy of information about water supplies and
soil conditions, it is impossible to generalize from Khairpur to the major part of Former Sind. From the data already available, however, it is clear that the foreseeable supply of canal water will limit the area of intensive cultivation in Former Sind to around eight million acres. Probably between 4 and 12 million acre feet of groundwater can be produced by wells near the bed of the Indus. This would enable the area of intensive cultivation to be raised to between 9 and 11 million acres. Before new projects are undertaken, thorough investigation is needed of these possibilities for groundwater development. Other measures for improvement include reduction in field percolation and non-beneficial evapotranspiration losses through consolidation of the cultivated areas and intensification of cultivation, drastic modification of cropping patterns in the rice -growing areas
9




Summary
on the Indus Right Bank; development of a market -oriented agriculture and of high-value specialty crops; and various combinations of range land and irrigation for livestock production.
Some possibilities for agricultural diversification, leading toward a
more market -oriented economy, are outlined in Chapter 6. These could apply both in Former Sind and in the Former Punjab and Former Bahawalpur. Livestock, poultry, fresh-water fish, forest products, fruits and vegetables are economic alternatives that warrant more careful investigation. For example, bananas apparently yield a net return of greater than Rs 2,000 per acre, potatoes give a gross return of approximately Rs 1,000 per acre, and the marginal increment from otherwise unused range is about three pounds of milk per cow per day. Poultry is capable of earning modest returns if, and only if, there are adequate provisions for disease control, a supply of high producing chicks and fortified feeds, and a stable market. Fresh-water fish production from excavated ponds may be a viable alternative if excavation costs can be Kept sufficiently low. Surface fish ponds may be a useful means for increasing the supply of animal proteins during the process of reclaining Sodium -damaged lands. Increased forage production is important as a base for an expanded livestock industry, and also as an important cash crop near urban centers where there are large populations of city live stock. There are potentially productive range lands stocked with native range grasses that withstand heavy punishment. With some control of graxing, their productivity could be enhanced greatly. Particularly important for specialty crops such as fruits and vegetables are transport, storage facilities, market organization, and measures for quality and disease control.,
The key to diversification is the proper selection of the correct combination of physical, economic, and human resources. Because of the great diversity with which these are distributed, planning for diversifi cation must be directed toward specific and carefully defined areas and especi ,ally chosen farm operators,.,
Estimated Costs
Capital costs per net cultivated acre for our contemplated projects in the Former Punjab and Former Bahawalpur would be of the order of $81 (Rs 390) distributed as follows:
10




Summary
Wells and appurte 'nances including. electrification $41.0
(transmission lines, substations, etc.)
Drainage system (returnnfows and floods) 5.0
Salt export system (wells for pumping salt water
plus conveyance channels) 6.6
Transporting pumped water or its equivalent (canal
enlargement plus channels for pumping into canals) 9.1
New nitrogen fertilizer plants and facilities for
distribution 12.0
Facilities for pest control and seed treatment 2.0
Facilities and "People in the Pine-line" for education, research, extension, management 5.0
Additional capital will be required after a few years for transportation facilities for the increased crops, processing mills, phosphate fertilizer production, etc.
In Former Sind, capital costs for water development and drainage would probably be 25 to 40 percent higher, making the total capital cost between $100 and $110 (Rs 435 to Rs 520) per acre. A grid of conveyance channels to carry off saline pumped waters must be constructed, and enlargement of canal capacity must be undertaken to bring in additional water.
Total capital costs for 16.4 million acres in the Former Punjab and Former Bahawalpur and for 9 to 10 million acres in Former Sind would be $2.3 billion (Rs 11 billion). If this expenditure were spread over the next 25 to 30 years, the average annual investment would be $80 to $90 million (Rs 380 to Rs 430 million). During the Second Five-Year Plan (1960-1965), the average annual allocation to the agricultural and water and power sectors for West Pakistan was projected as Rs 735 million ($155 million). Thus the required expenditures for our plan constitute a major fraction of the total allocations to these sectors. However, they do not appear excessive in terms of the entire Five-Year Plan.
For 25 million net cultivated acres, fertilizer containing 625,000 tons of nitrogen will be needed each year. With increasing efficiency of fertilizer production and distribution, the annual cost to the farmers should be around $125 million (Rs 600 million) or ten cents (Rs 0.475) per
11




Summary
p ound of nitrogen. If all this fertilizer were produced from natural gas in West Pakistan, the yearly gas consumption would be 30 billion cubic fe -et. At this rate, estimated recoverable reserves from the ui field -alone would last for nearly two centuries.
Because of the large reserves of natural gas, it should be economically practical to produce all required nitrogen fertilizer in West Pakistan. By the end of the Second Five Year Plan in 1964-65, nitrogen fertilizer plant capacity will be about 75,000 tons a year. Capital costs of the plants needed to produce another 550,000 tons should be around $200 mil-lion (Rs 960 million). These costs are included in the capital costs listed above. To minimize fertilizer transportation costs, the new plants should probably be built near the gas pine lines running through the agricultural development areas. In the long run, it should prove cheaper to transmit natural" gas by pipe line than fertilizer by rail or truck.
The lowest transportation costs for phosphate fertilizer, on the other
hand, would be achieved by producing triple superphosphate from imported raw materials at Karachi, and shipping the fertilizer up country. About 160,000 tons Of P205 will ultimately be needed at an annual cost of around $30 million (Rs 140 million).
The Water Budget
After completion of the Indus Basin Settlement works, an average of 136 million acre feet of river water will be available to West Pakistan. Provided that additional surface storage, can be developed economically, we estimate that an average of 92 million acre feet per year can be diverted into irrigation canals-about 18 million acre feet above the diversions during the 1950's. Surface storage is essential for this increase in diversion because of the highly seasonal character of the rivers. Around 60 million acre feet of the river flow occurs during only two months, July and August. An average of 48 million acre feet from the total canal diversions would go to the Former Punjab and Former Bahawalpur, and 44 million acre feet to Former Sind; of the remaining river water, 18 million acre feet would be lost by evaporation and seepage from the rivers and from the link canals and other Indus settlement works; 26 million acre feet would flow into the Arabian Sea. Part of the river and link canal losses could be recovered by pumping. A considerable fraction (estimated at 14 million acre feet) of the canal diversions in the Former Punjab and Former Bahawalpur will seep into the underground aquifer; practically all of this (plus an additional 6 million acre feet of recharge from rivers, link
12




Summary
canals, and rain) can be recovered if an adequate network of tubewells is constructed. In addition, we recommend mining of the underground water during the first thrity ypw&s after installation of the tubewells, at a rate (including both fresh and salt Water) of 22 million acre feet of year. The firm amount of irrigation water available for consumptive use by crops and soil salinity control in the Former Punjab and Former Bahawalpur will be 59 million acre feet, more than double the present amount. Average effective rainfall will add another 7 million acre feet. If 16.4 million acres is irrigated, the depth of irrigation water per acre will be slightly more than 3.5 feet and the total water supply about 3.9 feet. By taking advantage of the comparatively low rate of evapotranspiration and the relatively high rainfall in the northernmost part of the Plain, the area of intensively cultivated land could be increased beyond 16.4 million acres, perhaps by one to two million acres.
A detailed description of the water budget is given in Chapter 7. As shown in that chapter, mining of the underground water increases the cost of average tubewell water by more than 40 percent. But without mining, only abo ut 11.6 million acres can be irrigated fully, a 40 percent smaller area than would be possible with mining. The net benefits, discounted to the present time, from the additional irrigated area more than offset the additional water costs.
Underneath perhaps 7 million acres in the Former Punjab and Former Bahawalpur the underground water is salty even at shallow depths. In much of this area a thin layer of fresh water, accumulated from canal and water course leakage, overlies the salt. Some of this water can be recovered, without much mixing with salt water, by constructing many small, shallow, closely spaced, large -diameter wells, which penetrate part way to the boundary between the fresh and the salt water.
We estimate that the total recharge of fresh water in the saline areas will be about 4.7 million acre feet per year. Substantially all of this can be recovered, either by the skimming wells just described, or by tube wells pumping a mixture of fresh and salt water.
In order to mine the fresh underground water without allowing the salt water to spread into the fresh areas, the level of the salt water will also have to be lowered by pumping from tubewells. Some of this pumped salt water (our estimate is 1.7 million acre feet per year) can be used for irrigation by mixing it with canal water (it will, of course, already be mixed with fresh recharge water). But about 1 million acre feet per year
13




Summary
of undiluted salt water pumped from large deep wells will need to be exported, and we recommend that it be disposed of in salt lagoons, perhaps in the Thar Desert.
A careful analysis shows that it would not be economical to modify the canal system in order to transport an increased volume of river water for long distances into the areas overlying salty underground water. Even without such an additional supply of canal water, we believe that the average salinity of irrigation water in the salty areas can be held to between 1200 and 2000 parts per million. With this salinity, the depth of irrigation will need to exceed 3.5 feet; in order to maintain salinity control in the soil, it should probably be close to 4 feet. The total amount of irrigation water in the salty areas will be 11.4 million acre feet, and the area of intensively cultivated land should be therefore be limited to about 3 million acres, leaving around 13 million acres for intensive cultivation in the non-saline areas. In the northernmost part of the Plain, more water may be available than can be used; additional water should then be transported to the salty areas.
In both the saline and the non-saline areas, the salinity of groundwater will be increased when the salts accumulated in the soils are washed downward. Moreover, there is a small annual influx of salt from the rivers. To maintain a salt balance at a satisfactory level for agriculture, about 10 percent of the total water used for irrigation win eventually have to be exported from the region. However, for the next twenty or thirty years the amount of water to be exported does not need to be more than a million acre feet per year. This can be disposed in the rivers, but only during the summer months of high river flows in order not to raise to a serious degree the salinity of winter irrigation water in Former Sind.
Of the 44 million acre feet of canal water available in Former Sind in an average year, as much as 11 million acre feet may be lost by canal and water-course leakage and downward percolation from irrigated lands, and approximately 6 million acre feet by non-beneficial evapotranspiration. Around 27 million acre feet per year will be available for consumptive use by crops. Effective precipitation will add another 2 million acre feet, and 4 to 12 million acre feet probably can be obtained from wells in the comparatively small areas of sweet groundwater near the bed of the Indus. Unless leakage and percolation from the canals and fields can be reduced, a depth of water for irrigation of 3.5 feet can be obtained on at most 9 to 11 million acres depending upon the amount of groundwater that can be developed. This is more than the prese n'tly cultivated area, but less than the 12 million acres now under canal command. Because of high evapo,transpiration, an irrigation depth of 3.5 feet would be minimal for even moderately intensive cultivation.
14




Summary
Water Development
If the tubewell fields are too small in area, lateral infiltration from the edges will be large, and the process of dewatering and desalination will be retarded or completely inhibited. Analysis of three possible project sizes shows that when the area is less than about 100 thousand acres, dewatering by tubewell pumping is very slow during the first few years. In regions of high permeability, or in areas near a major source of recharge, such as a river, serious impairment of agricultural productivity might persist for five to ten years, particularly in low-lying regions. In an area of a million acres, on the other hand, the effects of waterlogging will be eliminated after one or two years of pumping. This conclusion is clearly confirmed by the results of pumping during the last two years in a 1.2 million acre area of Rechna Doab.
The ratio between capital and operating costs for groundwater pumping can be varied over a considerable range by changing the spacing and size of tubewells. Under some circumstances, the lowest total costs (discounted to present value) would be obtained with wells of 6 cubic feet per second capacity and an average pumping rate of 3 cubic feet per second, each pumping from an area of nearly 2 square miles. The proper spacing and size of wells in individual projects must be determined by detailed investigation of local aquifer characteristics and regional costs of water distribution and drainage, plus interest rates and economic time horizons at the time of construction. A high degree of flexibility exists for adjustment between capital and deferred operating costs.
The most effective results from tubewells can be obtained if they are not installed in low-lying waterlogged areas. The low-lying areas are in effect analogous to wells, because they serve as sumps which dissipate water to the atmosphere by evaporation. If the tubewells are located in high ground, the rate of lowering of the watertable will be rapid. Eventually the gradients in the watertable, which now maintain the waterlogged areas, will be reversed; water will flow away from the low regions to the tubewells, and waterlogging will gradually disappear.
It is obvious that leakage from canals could be reduced if the canals
were lined or sealed, and that this would reduce the amount of pumping required to control the watertable and to recover the leakage water. Linings themselves are expensive, however. Our computations show that in areas where the groundwater can be recovered by pumping, canal lining is economical only if the cost of application is less than two cents per square foot of canal bottom, with an expected life of five years. Effective lining
15




Summary
will reduce the average pumping rate during the year, but the maximum pumping rates are not very much affected, because a principal advantage of the tubewells is that they are able to provide water during seasons of loW canal flow.
Organization and Management
The problem, central to all others, of organization and management is discussed in Chapter 4. We recommend that the Government of West Pakistan mobilize for agricultural development in the project areas around the legal powers already given to its Soil Reclamation Board. The Board should be reconstituted and perhaps renamed-for example, the Land and Water Development Board. Its chairman should be a senior official of the rank of Additional Chief Secretary, and its members should include the Secretary of Irrigation, the Secretary of Agriculture, the Chairman of the Water and Power Development Authority of West Pakistan (WAPDA), and the Chairman of the Agricultural Development Corporation (ADO). To these might be added the Secretary of Labor and Cooperatives, the Secretary for Local Government and Basic Democracies, and a Finance Member. The Board should report to the Minister of Agrigulture, Food, and Irrigation, and it should have full powers to delegate to the Project Director in each Project area.
The Board should be generous in delegating to the Project Director. He must have authority to supervise and direct the Project personnel, including seconded officers from the Departments of Irrigation and Agriculture and from WAPDA and ADC. He must be able to make firm agreements for necessary services with these agencies, as well as with the Department of Cooperatives and the Agricultural Development Bank.
Within the Project area, the organization under the Project Director
should include staffs for Land and Water Planning, Records and Reporting, and Administration and Supply. There should be services for maintenance and operation of tubewells, water distribution and assessments, reclamation, extension, supervision of credit and marketing facilities, supervision of fertilizer and other supply distribution, in-service training, and research and experimentation. We estimate very tentatively that the number of technically trained senior and junior officers in the first project area should be 60 and 290, respectively.
Most of the junior officers would be directly concerned with various
aspects of agriculture and they should have been trained insofar as possible, at the agricultural college level. Because of the present shortage of
16




Summary
agricultural personnel and the low status of agriculture as a profession, provision of this number of technically trained people will place a great strain on the educational facilities of the Province.
Research and Development
It will not be suffici ent to achieve a once-over increase in agricultural productivity; agriculture in the Indus Plain must be put on the road to continuous growth. The key to continuous growth is continuous research and the application of its results. The need for better data, additional facts, and new ideas is stressed in every chapter of this Report, but it is emphasized with special urgency in Chapter 8.
Most urgently we need increased understanding of the social dynamics of change in an impoverished agricultural community. Which devices for education and persuation are most effective under the conditions of West Pakistan? What kinds of desirable change do the farmers adopt readily, and what kinds do they resist? What factors influence the farmers, readiness and their resistance? Partial answers to these questions will come from the experimental design of the first Project Areas, but fuller understanding can be obtained only by highly specialized sociological re search. Such research is also needed on the factors influencing population growth and the effectiveness of family planning programs. In the long. run, these may have a more important impact on the well-being of Pakistan than the factors influencing agricultural productivity that have been our main concern.
Many other problems for research are listed throughout the report. In public health and nutrition, the first step should be obtain better data on human diets in both urban and rural communities, by region, income levels, age and sex. The incidence and economic effects of dysentry, malaria, and deficiency diseases need to be quantified, as do the health aspects of village water supplies.
Beside the program of breeding new plant varieties already referred to, agricultural surveys and research need to be conducted on water and fertilizer requirements for different crops on different soils; development, te st, -and evaluation of farm tools and lat er of small farm tractors; develop ment of plant protection measures; and techniques of soil reclamation in the presence of high bicarbonate groundwater and high exchangeable sodium.
In engineering and hydrology, early emphasis should be placed on improving tubewell performance and reducing costs and on operational
17




Summary
analysis of the kinds of data needed to assess hydrologic and soil changes. As the program of groundwater exploitation progresses, long-range studies to improve the mechanism for groundwater recharge, to reduce non-beneficial evapotranspiration, and to control canal seepage will also be needed.
18




Chapter 1
THE PROBLEM
Introduction
Of the 310,000 square miles of West Pakistan, the major part is a thinly inhabited wilderness of deserts, marsh, and mountains. Eastward through this wild country, Alexander the Great marched his worn troops, some 2,,300 years ago. Suddenly they came upon a mighty river. This was the Indus, from which a sub -continent takes its name. It was the largest river the Greeks had ever seen. In the distance lay a vast plain, stretching flat and level to the horizon. As the soldiers pressed eastward, they came to five other rivers, tributaries of the Indus, even though three of them were as large as the Tigris or the Euphrates. On the river banks,, Alexander found and conquered brick-walled towns and cities. Among these may have been the small settlement that in after times would become the great city of Lahore, the principal seat of the rulers of the Punjab -the Land of the Five Rivers.
Finally the soldiers would go no farther to the east. Piling their supplies in wooden boats, they proceeded slowly southwestward down the rivers of the Punjab and onto the great plain. Here each river flowed through a green ribbon of farm land a few miles wide. The fields were irrigated when the rivers overflowed their banks during the monsoon floods of summer; the soldiers saw many inundation canals that the farmers had dug to guide the flood waters. Between the green ribbons of farm land, beyond the reach of the canals, lay broad stretches of dry and empty desert.
After a journey of many weeks, the army came to the place where the
tributary waters joined the Indus. Though the plain still stretched endlessly before them, they were now in the land called Sind, the country of the Indus. They were still several hundred miles from the sea.
The Greeks were not the only conquerors to be drawn by the fertile fields and rich cities of the plain. More than two thousand years earlier, the Indus and its tributaries had nourished the beginning of a center of civilization. Long before Alexander's coming, the civilization had been overthrown and rebuilt by Aryan invaders from the northwest. And after his time,, the history of conquest was repeated over and over, by Persians, Arabs, Tartars, Moguls., Sikhs, and, finally, by the British.
19




Chapter 1
The British worked a transformation on the land. In both the Punjab and the Sind, they built low dams, which they called barrages, across the rivers. Behind these barrages, they diverted the waters into great new canals. These canals, with their branches and distributaries, have a total length of tens of thousands of miles. Some of the biggest of them carry nearly as much water as the Colorado River. They were carefully designed as to width, depth, and downstream slope, in such a way that the silty water moves just fast enough so that it neither erodes the beds of the canals nor chokes them by depositing sediment.
The ancient inundation canals were filled only when the rivers were in
flood., and they carried water only a relatively short distance from the river banks. Mostof the new British canals could carry water throughout the year, because the barrages at the diversion points backed up the river waters to the level of the canal heads. They stretched in a complex many-branched network entirely across the broad plains between the rivers.,. Thus, intensive agriculture was made possible over millions of acres. Before the construction of the canals, farming had been concentrated on narrow ribbons of land along the river banks; now, green fields of grain and other crops gradually covered the entire country. The Punjab was soon called the bread-basket of India.
Farmers and their families immigrated into the newly-watered lands by the hundreds of thousands. In the Punjab, the British supplied farms to each cultivator in the "canal colonies," and they established a grid of villages, two to three miles apart, across the land. In the Sind, the pattern of settlement was somewhat different. Large landowners held most of the country, and the farmers were sharecropping tenants- on small parcels.
Barrages and canals were first built in the northeastern Punjab during the latter part of the nineteenth century. Construction is still continuing, especially in the former state of Sind. Hundreds of thousands of acres of new lands are being brought under cultivation every year. At present, the canal-irrigated area planted each year totals twenty-three million acres, by far the largest single irrigated region on earth, and more than two thirds of all the planted land in West Pakistan.
But something has gone wrong. Poverty and hunger, not well-fed
prosperity, are today the common lot of the people of West Pakistan, and are nowhere more desperately evident than in the farming villages of the .countryside. Some of these villages have disappeared completely, because the fields on which tbef:r livelffiood depended no longer yield even-the
20




Chapter 1
scantiest harvest. In others, only a fraction of the people remain, and the deserted mud houses of those who were forced to leave have disappeared. The average farmer now wrings a bare living for himself and his family from less than seven acres, broken into scattered plots. At the same time that new lands are being brought under the plow, older lands are deterio rating. In a country of farmers, food must be imported to provide the most meager diet; the gap between food production and the number of mouths to be fed is widening.
In order to understand what has happened and what may be done, we need to examine in detail the resources of land and water in the Indus Plain, the human resources of the country, and the state of agriculture.
The Land
On a map, the Indus Plain of West Pakistan has a shape roughly like the
silhouette of an hour glass. It is rimmed abruptly on the west by the Kirthar and Sulaiman Mountains,. on the northwest by the Salt Range, and on the north by the foothills of the Himalayas. To the northeast and east, the plain extends into Kashmir and India. On the southeast, the sand dunes of the Thar Desert press against the plain and constrict its width. Its southernmost segment is the delta of the Indus, which fades into the giant salt pan called the Rann of Cutch and gradually becomes submerged beneath the Arabian Sea.
The area of the plain is about 80,000 square miles, half the size of the State of California. From the Himalayan piedmont to the Arabian Sea,, its length is more than seven hundred miles; its width varies from two hundred miles in the former state of Punjab to about fifty miles in the narrow neck between the Thar Desert and the Sulaiman Mountains.
To a traveler, the plain appears as level as the sea; actually it has a very gentle slope of about a foot per mile from the base of the Himalayan foothills to the ocean. Lahore, seven hundred miles inland, is seven hundred feet above sea level.
Geologically, the Indus Plain is part of a broad downwarp that extends westward from the Bay of Bengal under the flood plain of the Ganges and thence across the subcontinent to the Arabian Sea. In its western half, this downwarp has been leveled and filled, to depths of many thousand feet, with the sands and silts deposited by the Indus and its tributaries.
21




Chapter 1
Five major rivers cross the plain in Pakistan. From west to east, they are the Indus itself, the Jhelum, the Chenab, the Ravi, and the Sutlej. Of these, the Indus is by far the largest. Arising in the Himalayas, it flows for a thousand miles in a deep gorge through the mountains, draining an enormous area, before it enters the foothills and basins of the Former Northwest Frontier, and thence debouches onto the plain. The other four rivers are tributaries of the Indus; they arise in the hills of Kashmir and Jammu and are fed by the western slopes of the Himalayas. A fifth tributary, the Beas, formerly ran through what is now West Pakistan, but it has changed it course, and at present joins the Sutlej in India. The Jhelum and the Chenab converge about a hundred and eighty miles below the border; in turn they are joined by the Ravi some forty miles further downstream. The Sutlej joins the others at Panjnad -the place of the five rivers and the combined stream flows on to meet the Indus near the northern edge of the former state of Sind.
The areas between the rivers are called Doabs. Sind Sagar, or Thal Doab, lies between the Indus and the Jhelum. Between the Jhelum and the Chenab is Chaj Doab, its name being taken from an abbreviation of the names of the two rivers. Rechna Doab, between the Chenab and the Ravi, is similarly named. Bari Doab, which in Pakistan lies between the Ravi and the Sutlej, was given its name because in its northern section, now in India, it is bounded on the east by the Beas.
These four Doabs make up the southeast part of the former state of the Punjab in West Pakistan. Beyond the Sutlej lies the former state of Bahawalpur. Its fertile cultivated portion extends in a narrow strip between the left bank of the Sutlej and the Thar Desert. Southwest of Former Bahawalpur, below the confluence of the rivers, is the region called Former Sind.
The settled part of West Pakistan is divided into twelve Divisions, and each of these in turn into three to five Districts. In the Indus Plain, these Districts vary in size from 1.3 million to more than 4 million acres.
As. shown on Map 1.1, many of the Districts in the Former Punjab lie entirely within a single Doab. From northeast to southwest in Bari Doab are Lahore (1.4 million acres), Montgomery-(2.7 million acres), and Multan (3..6 million acres). Similarly in Rechna Doab, Sialkot District (1.3 million acres) lies to the northeast, followed by Gujranwala (1.5 million acres), Sheikhupura (1.5 million acres), and Lyallpur (2.25 million acres). The southeastern flank of Rechna Doab makes up part of Jhang (2.2 million acres), but this District also covers the extreme southern corner of Chaj Doab
22




Chapter 1
and extends for 20 miles into east central Thal Doab. About half of Shahpur (3.1 million acres) is in Thal, and the rest lies in central Chaj Doab. Gujrat District (1.5 million acres) covers northeastern Chaj. Mianwali (3.4 million acres) and Muzaffargarh (3.6 million acres) make up the northwestern and southern parts of Thal Doab. Beyond the Indus, opposite Mianwali, lies Dera Ismaili Khan District (2.2 million acres), and to the south, Dera Ghazi Khan (3.5 million acres of this District are reported in the agricultural statistics; the remainder is sparsely settled and statistics are not collected). Only small parts of these two Districts are within the flood plain of the Indus; the remainder consists of piedmont slopes formed by the torrents of the Sulaiman Range.
Three Districts on the left bank of the Sutlej make up the former state of Bahawalpur. From north to south, these and their reported acreages are: Bahawalnager (1.7 million reported acres); Bahawalpur (1.2 million reported acres); and Rahimyar Khan (1.7 million reported acres). The southern parts of these Districts lie in the Thar Desert, and are so thinly settled that they are not reported in the agricultural statistics.
There are two Divisions and ten Districts in the Former Sind (including the former state of Khairpur). From north to south on the right bank of the Indus lie Jacobabad (1.9 million acres); Larkana (1.5 million reported acres); and Dadu (3.5 million reported acres). The first two are in Khairpur Division, together with the left bank Districts of Khairpur (1.3 million reported acres), Sukkur (3.5 million acres), and Nawabshah (1.7 million acres). Dadu District is in Hyderabad Division (central and southern Sind), as are the left bank Districts of Sanghar (2.6 million acres), Tharparkar (6.8 million reported acres), and Hyderabad (2.85 million reported acres). The southernmost District in Hyderabad Division is Thatta (5.0 million acres), which extends on both banks of the Indus into the tidal marshes and flats bordering the Arabian Sea. Nearly half of Sukkur, Sanghar, and Tharparkar Districts lies in the Thar Desert and is not properly a part of the Indus Plain. Similarly, nearly a million acres of Dadu District lie outside the area of alluvial deposits laid down by the Indus.
Adjoining the Indus Plain on the north are three upland Districts that we
have included in several of our statistical tables; Jhelum (1.8 million acres); Rawalpindi (1.3 million acres); and Attock (now called Campbellpur) (2.7 million acres).
Land Forms
Of the nearly fifty million acres in the Indus Plain, one or two million are occupied by river channels and are normally covered with fresh water. The tidal and salt flats of the Indus delta contain another two million acres.
23




Chapter 1
Most of the remaining area was shaped by the rivers as they wandered over the Plain., and is covered with alluvial sands and silts. Five land forms made by the major rivers can be distinguished.
Active flood plains, covering 5.2 million acres, lie adjacent to the rivers and are inundated during the summer floods, when erosion and deposition take place on a vast scale. The soil is sufficiently permeable to allow excess water to drain off after the floods recede, permitting much of the land to be cropped during the winter months. This type of irrigation, called Sailab, is the most ancient in the Indus Plain. The soils of the active flood plains are much finer in the Former Sind than in the upper reaches of the Indus and its tributaries, but, in general, sands predominate.
Meander flood plains, found beside active flood plains of major rivers,
and beside recently -abandoned river courses, were created by the rivers in former times as they changed course in wandering across the land. The relatively coarse soils of the meander flood plains are minutely stratified in a complex pattern. Ancient bars, meander scrolls, levees, and oxbow depressions remain stenciled on the land surface even after irrigation leveling, and still give evidence of the ancient rivers.
Recently -abandoned river channels, bordered by ancient natural levees, run through Chaj, Rechna, and Bani Doabs. The channels form natural drains,. and are widely waterlogged with numerous marshes and swamps. The levees are usually above the level of the canal commands, and are unirrigated.
Cover flood plains were formed by slow moving sheet floods that deposited a monotonously flat mantle of fine-grained alluvium. Whatever small relief may have existed has been largely obliterated by leveling for irrigation. In some places, cover flood plains lie next to the active flood plains that are still annually inundated by the rivers; in other areas, such as the Former Sind, the active flood plain of the Indus is bordered by relatively high meander flood plains over which the River wandered in past times before it cut its present channel. Farther from the Indus and still parallel to it, belts of cover flood plain take the form of broad basins lower than the meander flood plains and perhaps as low as the present Indus bed itself.
In the centers of Bari, Rechna, and Chaj Doabs, elongated, extremely
level plains exist, normally lacking any sign of modification by meandering rivers or sheet floods.
These "bars" of the three eastern Doabs, containing about 4.5 million acres formed by the ancient rivers before the cutting of the meander and
24




Chapter 1
cover flood plains, are covered with highly uniform soils of sandy silt, and are the most fertile regions of the Former Punjab. They are a few feet higher than the meander flood plains or cover flood plains, and are usually separated from them by low bluffs cut by the meandering rivers.
In Thal Doab, the place of the bar is taken by the sand flats and irregular low hills, covered with shifting sands, of the Thal Desert. Here, in the Thal Desert southeast of the Plain, and in smaller areas in the other Doabs, in Former Bahawalpur, and in Former Sind, the topography has been shaped by wind rather than running water. Sand dunes and hills and wind-eroded remnants dominate the landscape. These areas are sparsely vegetated, mostly uncultivated, roamed by flocks of sheep and goats, and thinly dotted with wells and patches of dry-cropped lands.
At the northern ends of Thal, Chaj, and Rechna Doabs, near the rim of the Plain, the slope of the land steepens slightly, and the alluvial deposits become much thinner. These "piedmont plains" are generally above the reach of the present canal system, and were apparently formed by outwash from the Himalayan foothills, rather than by flood deposition from the great rivers. Similar piedmont plains cover large areas at the foot of the Sulaiman and Kirthar Mountains on the right bank of the Indus.
North of the rim lie the Potwar Uplands of the northern Former Punjab and the Former Northwest Frontier. These are highly irregular in form, hilly, and eroded with small alluvial basins and fans separated by older rocks.
Areas of easily culturable land
We shall now briefly describe the areas of easily culturable land in each sub-division of the Plain. The most suitable areas for agricultural development are the meander and cover flood plains and the bars. Parts of the wind-blown sand plains and low sand hills are also improvable, as are the piedmont plains, though with more difficulty than the flood plains and bars formed in past times by the major rivers. The active flood plains and desert areas are not easily susceptible to canal or tubewell irrigation and hence it is hard to increase their agricultural productivity.
Within Thal Doab, which has the Thal desert at its center, mugh of the non-desert area is occupied by the active flood plains of the Indus, the Jhelum, and the Chenab, totalling 1.18 million acres. Relatively small areas of meander flood plain cover 0.87 million acres west and south of Trimmu and in Muzaffargarh District. A narrow piedmont plain containing
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Chapter 1
0.57 million acres, of which 0. 15 million acres are canal irrigated, lies in Mianwali District south of the Salt Range. To the south of the piedmont area, level and rolling sand plains totalling 2.8 million acres extend across the northern edge of the desert and down its western flank for 150 miles. Parts of these wind-blown lands are being rapidly brought under canal-irrigated cultivation.
Chaj Doab contains part of the active flood plains of the Jhelum and
Chenab Rivers, covering 0.29 million acres. Meander flood plains totalling
1.21 million acres extend inward to the bar, called the Kirana Bar, to the south, and the Phalia Bar to the north, which stretches from 40 miles above Trimmu to the upper Jhelum canal, and occupies 0.96 million acres. All of the bar, as well as parts of the meander flood plains, is, irrigated by perennial canals. A small area of meander flood plain near the southern tip of Chaj Doab is not cultivated, and the remaining area has non-perennial canal irrigation, supplemented in the winter by well water. North of the upper Jhelum canal in Gujrat District is a piedmont plain. It has some areas of Persian Well irrigation, but is mostly dry cropped.
Meander and cover flood plains together comprise 4.35 million acres in Rechna Doab, and the active flood plains of the Ravi and the Chenab within this Diab cover 0.57 million acres. The "Sandal Bar," containing 2.00 million acres, mostly in Lyallpur District, is watered by perennial canals and is the most intensively cultivated and productive part of Rechna Doab. The northern half of the bar is surrounded by a meander flood plain which occupies a large part of Sheikhupura District. Most of Gujranwala and Sialkot Districts consist of cover flood plain. Non-perennial canals water a large part of Gujranwala, and only Persian Wells are used for Irrigation in Sialkot.
Bari Doab consists chiefly of a broad and featureless cover flood plain containing 5.16 million acres, but the long narrow Ganji Bar, covering
1.44 million acres in West Pakistan, extends from east of Multan to beyond the Indian border south of Lahore. Almost all of the bar and part of the surrounding plain receive perennial canal irrigation. Most of the remainder of the Doab is covered by non-perennial canals. The three major exceptions are the active flood plain of the Sutlej, which extends for the entire length of the Doab; the active flood plain of the Ravi, which extends for about 100 miles southwest from the Indian border, and the active flood plain of the Chenab cum Jhelum below its junction with the Ravi north of Multan. These three summer-flooded areas contain 0.70 million acres.
On the right bank of the Indus, oposite Thal Doab, two relatively small areas of meander flood plain cover 0.5 million acres in D. I. Khan and
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Chapter 1
D. G. Khan Districts. These receive perennial canal irrigation from the upper Indus barrages. The remainder of the cultivated land in these two Districts consists of piedmont plains, some of which are watered from inundation canals and the remainder by hill torrents and sparse rainfall.
In Former Bahawalpur, cover and meander flood plains occupy about 2.5 million acres, and culturable sand plains another 1.0 million acres. In Former Sind (including Khairpur), cover and meander flood plains occupy approximately 12 million acres, while the active flood plain of the Indus extends over 1.2 million acres.
In summary, if we consider that the bars (4.5 million acres), the meander and cover flood plains (26.6 million acres), and portions of the rolling and level sand plains (3.8 million acres), have the most actual or potential promise for productive agriculture, we arrive at a total of around 35:, million acres in the Indus Plain which could warrant intensive development, provided the soils were sufficiently permeable and not uneconomically saline as they appear to be in parts of southern Former Sind. This compares with the present gross sown area under canal irrigation of about 23 million acres and the culturable area presently commanded by canals from the river barrages of about 30 million acres.
The Water
Weather and Climate
From the meteorological standpoint, West Pakistan must be considered in its relation to the entire Indian Subcontinent and the Himalaya, Kara Korum, and Hindu Kush Mountains. The Province itself is characterized by great physiographic contrasts between the mountains to the north, the intervening foothills and the Indus Plain to the south. These contrasts are reflected in the regimes of precipitation, air temperature, humidity, and evapotranspiration.
Throughout the Indus Plain, most of the rain falls during the monsoon
period-June to October. Winter rains, generally one to two inches, usually come in December and January.
Average Annual Rainfall
In the outliers of the Himalyan foothills, in the northern parts of the
Districts of Sialkot, Gujrat, and Jhelum, in Rawalpindi, and in eastern Attock
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Chapter 1
(see Map 1.2), the average annual rainfall is more than 26 inches.(1) In northern Mianwali, at the foot of the Salt Range, and in Shahpur, Gujranwala, and Lahore, the annual precipitation does not much exceed 18 inches. It diminished substantially as one proceeds to the south in Bari, Rechna, and Thal Doabs and in Former Bahawalpur. Roughly four-fifths of the area of irrigation agriculture in the Former Punjab has an average annual rainfall of 12 inches or less.
In the northern part of the Former Sind, the average annual rainfall is less than five inches, and this is concentrated mainly in July and August. Annual precipitation increases toward the Southwest as the tropical coastland is approached, to about 10 inches.
Average Seasonal Rainfall
The customary growing season for winter (Rabi) crops extends from
October 17 through March 31. Map 1.3 shows the average rainfall. None of the Former Punjab under canal irrigation experiences, on the average, rainfall over five inches; Former Bahawalpur and southern Former Punjab receive two inches or less; and the central part of Former Sind less than one inch.
Map 1.4 displays the isohyetal pattern during the summer (Kharif)
growing period, extending from April 1 through October 15. Since this is the rainy season, the pattern of distribution is similar to the average annual rainfall. South of the foothills of the Himalayas and the Salt Range the highest values run between 18 and 22 inches. Four-fifths of the canalirrigated area in the Former Punjab receive less than 12 inches. In southern Muzaffargarh, Multan, and Former Bahawalpur, the summer average is less than five inches, and in northern Former Sind, less than four inches. Central and southern Former Sind receive slightly more than six inches.
Effective Precipitation.
The amount of rainfall, its rate, and the duration of fall determine whether precipitation will percolate deeply into the soil or be lost through surface runoff and evaporation. These factors can be utilized in estimating the "effective precipitation"-effective in the sense of availability for consumptive
(1) "Average Rainfall in various Sub-Periods in Inches" Indus Basin Working Party, Set No. 15 (Pakistan), Study 11-3 to 11-7, Statement A(6).
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Chapter 1
use by crops. Blaney and Criddle(2) have given estimates of the effective monthly precipitation by major canal systems in West Pakistan. We have combined these for the Rabi and Kharif seasons (Map 1.5), The effective Rabi precipitation is below three inches, even near the foothills in the northeastern portions of Rechna and Chaj Doabs. During the Kharif season, the isohyet of 11 inches skirts the base of the foothills, and the effective precipitation diminishes along the axes of Bari, Rechna, Chaj, and Thal Doabs.
Variations in Rainfall from Year to Year
In the northern part of West Pakistan, the orographic influence of the
mountains tends to damp out variability from year to year in total rainfall. This, together with the relatively high average annual precipitation, gives cultivators in dry farming areas a reasonable degree of assurance of water for their crops.
However, over most of the Former Punjab and Former Bahawalpur, and throughout Former Sind, the low average annual rainfall is accompanied by high year-to-year variability. A detailed analysis is provided in "Analysis of Precipitation Data from Rechna, Chaj, and Thal Doabs.'(3) In Rechna Doab at Bachrianwala, annual precipitation ranged from 0.86 inches to 18.92 inches over the period 1916 to 1959. In Chaj Doab, at Dhaulka, the range was
1.28 to 18.81 inches. However, during seven years out of ten, the annual rainfall varied by a much smaller amount, from 3.5 to 11.8 inches at Bachrianwala, and from 5.0 to 16.6 inches at Dhaulka.
Temperature
Data from representative stations in West Pakistan on monthly mean
maximum and mean minimum air temperatures, and monthly mean relative humidity, are in the Report of the Food and Agriculture Commission of Pakistan.(4) Diurnal ranges in air temperature are large during both summer and winter. In the winter, the Himalayas offer substantial protection against the intensely cold air masses from the vast Asian continent. As a result of radiative cooling, there is, nonetheless, some occurrence of frost over the Indus Plain, but it is seldom severe enough to damage the Rabi Crops.
(2) H. F. Blaney, and Criddle, W. D.; "Report on Irrigation Requirements for West Pakistan," Tipton and Kalmback, Inc., Engineers, April 30, 1957.
(3) Water and Power Development Authority, Water and Soils Investigation Division, Technical Paper No. 1. 1960.
(4) Government of West Pakistan, Karachi, November 1960, p. 570-571.
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Chapter 1
In the Former Punjab and northern Former Sind, maximum daily summer temperatures are extremely and consistently high. Mean monthly maxima over 100*F. are not uncommon. June mean maxima at Sukkur and Lahore exceed 1150F. At night, the temperature often falls to less than 700F.
The region bordering the Arabian Sea has somewhat lower summer temperatures because of the moderating influence of the sea breeze.
Humidity
The only humidity data we have been able to f ind(5) are published in terms of relative humidity. This meteorological parameter is difficult to quantify with precision or meaning, either as an annual, a seasonal, or a daily value. Relative humidities are comparatively higher in the foothills of West.Pakistan and near the ocean-cooled coastline of the Arabian Sea than in the major part of the Indus Plain. The southern Former Punjab, Former Bahawalpur, and the northern and central parts of Former Sind are exceedingly dry, especially from the start of the Kharif season in April to the onset of the monsoon in June or July.
Potential Evapotranspiration
Various methods have been developed to estimate the quantity of water
that will evaporate into the air under a given set of meteorological conditions. The factors of greatest importance in determining the magnitude of potential evapotranspiration are air temperature, absolute humidity, wind movement, and solar radiation. Among these, solar radiation is the most significant.
Appendix A. 1 gives computations of potential evapotranspiration for selected stations in West Pakistan, utilizing several methods. Unfortunately, direct measurements of solar radiation were not available, and, accordingly, it was necessary to derive this factor from cloud cover data. Estimates of the annual potential evapotranspiration in inches are shown on Map 1.2. Values range from 47 inches in the Salt Range to about 69 inches in Former Bahawalpur. Table 1.1.1 provides an estimate of the potential evapotranspiration values by Rabi and Kharif cropping seasons.
(5) Blaney and Griddle (op. cit.) provide data on average relative humidities in the canal-irrigated areas. The Report of the Food and Agriculture Commission of Pakistan, November 1960, also gives data on relative humidity in a table on pages 570-57 1. These appear to be erroneous.
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Chapter 1
The potential for evaporative loss of water to the atmosphere in the canal-irrigated areas of the Former Punjab and Former ]3ahawalpur is something like 3 to 10 times greater than the average annual rainfall. Even more striking is the comparison of these values of potential evapotranspiration with the effective annual precipitation (Map 1.5). For example, at Lahore the potential evapotranspiration exceeds the effective precipitation by a factor of five; at Multan, by a. factor of 20.
Floods and Flood Damage
While circumstances other than meteorological conditions contribute to the incidence of floods of varying degrees of devastation in West Pakistan, it is useful to consider first the pattern of atmospheric disturbances that lead to much higher than normal rainfall. Such an analysis is given in the Annual Report of the West Pakistan Flood Commission, Year 1958-59, West Pakistan Flood Commission Publication No. 1.
All severe floods that damage agriculture over extensive regions in the Indus Plain are the consequence of heavy rainfall from tropical storms and depressions during the monsoon period. Of some 696 tropical storms and depressions formed in the Bay of Bengal during the period 1891 to 1950, only 29 actually approached the Western Himalayas; and only one depression formed over the Arabian Sea reached the mountains. Customarily, depressions from the Bay of Bengal traverse the central parts of India; there is a convergence of the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea branches of the monsoon in the upper atmosphere over the northern Indus Plain, and the consequence is some rainfall over the Plain but not in excessive amounts nor of long duration. On a few occasions, however, the rainfall does intensify when a depression moves eastward over the extreme north of West Pakistan at the same time that a depression recurves over Central India. The Riavi and Chenab floods in July 1959 were of this type.
Devastating floods on a wider scale occur when there is very heavy rainfall in the upper catchment areas of the Indus and its tributaries. In these instances the Bay of Bengal depressions recurve over the Rajasthan area of India (just to the southeast of the Former Bahawalpur State) and force the two branches of the monsoon to converge in the Western Himalayas. Rainfall is exceptionally heavy in the upper catchment areas and may persist for three to five days. River volumes become correspondingly great and the rivers overflow onto the meander and cover flood plains beyond the usually flooded active flood plains.
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Chapter 1
The West Pakistan Flood Commission has estimated the extent of
damage caused by recent floods in the various districts of the Former Punjab for the years extending from 1948 to 1960, including numbers of villages damaged or destroyed, loss of human life and livestock, cultivated acreage affected, and the approximate value of crops destroyed. Table 1.1.2 summarizes the estimates of the value of crops lost to floods. Rechna Doab suffered the most extensive crop losses. Bani Doab, along the Ravi River and at the confluence of the Ravi and the Chenab in Multan District, also had sizeable losses. The maximum flood damage occurred in three Districts: Sheikhupura, southwestern Jhang at the confluence of the IRavi and the Chenab Rivers, and the Shahpur portion of Chaj Doab. In all three regions the water table lies within a few feet of the ground surface.
The average annual loss in value of crops due to flood damage appears to be a little less than one percent of the total annual value of crops grown in West Pakistan (see Table 1.6).
River and Canal Waters
The average annual inflow of the Indus and its tributaries, measured at the six gauging stations on the rim of the Indus Plain, is about 170 million acre feet. This is twice the flow of the Nile and more than ten times that of the Colorado River. In Europe, only the Danube compares in size, and in the United States, only the Mississippi and the Columbia are larger. Half the water carried onto the Plain by the rivers is diverted into irrigation canals; a net of about 10 percent is lost by evaporation and infiltration, and the remainder flows to the sea unused, almost entirely during the months of the monsoon floods in summer.
The river flows are highly seasonal. As Table 1.2 shows, 84 percent of
the annual flow occurs during the six months of the summer (Kharif) growing season, from April to September, and 16 percent during the winter (Rabi) season, from October to March. Nearly half (44 percent) of the total volume is carried during July and August, and only 8 percent in the four months f rom November to February. Variations from year to year, though great in absolute magnitude, are comparatively much smaller than the seasonal variations. Over the twenty-five year period from 192 1-22 to 1945-46, the maximum annual flow was 189 million acre feet, and the minimum 139 million acre feet.
We estimate that for the five years ending 19 56-57, the annual diversion from the rivers into irrigation canals averaged 83.6. million acre feet, of
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Chapter 1
which 73.6 million acre feet went to canals in West Pakistan, and 10.0 to those in India. The prepartition withdrawals of Indian canals were 8.1 million acre feet, but we believe this has increased by about 2 million acre feet with the construction of the Harike barrage and Madhopur-Beas link canal. Average annual withdrawals for each of the major canal systems in the Indus Plain over the five-year period are shown in Table 1.2. The annual canal diversions vary considerably from year to year. For example, in 1956-57, the last year of the five-year period, the diversions to West Pakistan canals amounted to 92 million acre feet compared with the average of 73.6 million acre feet.
With the completion of the Indus Settlement Works, the entire flow of the Sutlej and Ravi Rivers, amounting to nearly 33 million acre feet, will be diverted to India. To maintain the present volumes diverted to the Bani Doab and Sutlej canals, it will be necessary to transfer 20 million acre feet from the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab to Bani Doab and Bahawalpur. The average annual river flow available to West Pakistan in the Indus Plain will be only about 136 million acre feet, and canal diversion at the contemplated level will require 68 percent of the total flow. With the comparatively small volume of surface storage now contemplated, and the highly seasonal character of the rivers, this will be difficult to attain.
At present, the winter supply of the rivers is almost fully utilized in the perennial canals, but during the summer, from May 15 to September 15 (especially from July to mid-September), the rivers carry surplus water over and above the total capacity of both perennial and non-perennial canals. This surplus water, is not usable at present to support additional agriculture, even supposing an enlargement of canal capacity which would allow the water to be diverted away from the rivers. In order to grow crops successfully, there .must be water not only during the summer growing season, but also during the spring and autumn sowing and maturing periods. If a sufficient number of wells were constructed, some of the surplus water could be used for crops in the Former Punjab (provided canal capacity were also enlarged) by supplementing it during the spring and fall with water pumped from the underground aquifer. In Former Sind it might be possible to store several million acre feet of summer flood water underground by developing recharge areas on the strips of land alongside the active flood plain of the Indus. The water could be pumped out and used for irrigation during the remainder of the year. Even if all the flood water could be saved and used it would be necessary ultimately to allow around 15 million acre feet of return flow t6 run to the sea in order to maintain a salt balance in the underground water and in the soil. In general, maintenance of salt balance will require that over
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Chapter 1
the long run about 10 percent more water be applied in irrigation and drained off than the amount needed for consumptive use by crops.
Although there are no reliable estimates of net river losses (i.e. the dif ference between evaporation and seepage losses from the rivers and return underground drainage above the Ghulam Mohammad Barrage), we have assumed in Table 1.2 that these are 15 million acre feet per year (11.5 on Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab, and 3.5 on Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej) and that the outflow to the sea is close to 70 million acre feet. Both figures could be in considerable error; their sum, about 85 million acre feet, is, however, a relatively firm figure. The net river losses could lie between 15 and 25 million acre feet and the outflow to the sea between 60 and 70 million acre feet.
Because of conveyance and application losses, a major fraction of the water diverted from the rivers into canals never reaches the root zone of the crops. The over-all river-to-crop efficiency has been estimated to lie between 45 and 55 percent for West Pakistan canals. This means that only 34-41 million acre feet is available for evapotranspiration and soil drainage in the farmers' fields. During recent years, the sown area irrigated by canal water has been close to 23 million acres, and consequently an average of between 1.5 and 1.8 acre feet of canal water per acre has been available for use by crops. With this small amount of water, extensive double cropping is impossible under the conditions of high evapotranspiration in the Indus Plain, and even with a single planting, most 'fields do not receive enough water for the crops, let alone for salinity control. Part of the 34 to 41 million acre feet lost from the canals and water courses leaks into the ground water reservoir, and the remainder is lost by non-beneficial evapotranspiration.
In the Former Punjab most of the canal leakage could be recovered and
used for irrigation if a system of wells were installed. In Former Sind, the major part of the underground water is too salty to be used economically, even after mixing with water that has leaked into the underground aquifer from the canals and from fields.
The People
Size of the Present Population
No one knows for certain, but it is probably true that the population of
Pakistan is now the fifth largest in the world, being exceeded only by China, India, the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, and the United States of America. Until very recently, both Japan and Indonesia were larger. In the
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Chapter 1
last few years, however, Japan has almost certainly dropped behind, and it is likely that in the crowded islands of Indonesia the rate of population increase has not kept pace with that of Pakistan.
In the census taken at the beginning of 1961, 93.8 million people were counted in all of Pakistan, and 43.0 million people in West Pakistan. Experience with United States Censuses (see, for example, A,. J. Coale, Journal of the American Statistical Association, March 1955) shows that census counts usually give an underestimate of actual population. For example, the undercount in the United States census of 1950 was probably about 5 million people, or 3.3 percent. Internal evidence(6) also indicates that the 1961 census of Pakistan represented an undercount, For example, the ratio of males to females under 5 years old is recorded as 1.00 to 1, and as 1.02 to 1 for 20 to 29 year-olds, but this ratio is 1.14 to 1 for young people between the ages of 5 and 14. Almost certainly there was an undercount of females in this age group of approximately 1.6 million. For all ages, the census shows about 12 percent or 4.75 million more males than females; a considerable part of this disparity may be due to undercounting females. We can conclude that at the beginning of 1961, the population of Pakistan was 96 to 98 million people and the population of West Pakistan at least 44 mil 'lion. At the present writing, a year and a half later, the population of the entire country is probably between 99 and 101 million, and that of West Pakistan about 46 million.
Of the approximately hundred million Pakistanis, we are necessarily concerned in these investigations primarily with the forty-six million people of West Pakistan. Like their compatriots of East Pakistan, the great majority of these people are malnourished and desperately poor. Their average income is less than twenty cents a day; their average life expectancy is less than forty-five years. Only one out of ten can read effectively or write more than his own name; only one out of a thousand has more than a high school education. They are debilitated by dietary and water-borne diseases and by skin infections. Their meager diet is inadequate, both in energy content and in essential proteins. Yet they are industrious, frugal, progressive, and when allowance is made for their inadequate diet, energetic. Their watchword is, "Our sons will have it better."
(6) This evidence was kindly pointed out to us by Dr. Frank Notestein and W. Parker Mauldin of the Population Council. It is reinforced by a sampling survey conducted by Dr. Karol Krotki for the Institute of Developmental Economics in Karachi.
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Chapter I
Observed and projected rates of population growth
According to the census counts, there were 9.2 million more human beings
in West Pakistan in 1961 than in 1951, an increase of 27.1 percent over the tenyear period (corresponding to an annual rate of increase of 2.4 percent). At this rate, every five minutes ten more mouths must be fed; every year the population increase would fill two cities the size of Cincinnati or Denver.
The rate of increase shown by the two censuses of 1951 and 1961 is higher
than that estimated by demographers prior to the 1961 census. For the country as a whole, the Planning Commission of Pakistan predicted (7) a 1960 population three million less than the census count. Even the highest estimate for West Pakistan, made by the United Nations, was 0.7 million lower than the recorded figures. A small part of this increase was due to immigration several hundred thousand more people came into West Pakistan than left it during the decade 1951 to 1961. (8) But the major part must have resulted from the excess of births over deaths.
The United Nations Department of Economics and Social Affairs has estimated that, at present, about forty-four children are born and twenty-two human beings die each year per thousand persons in West Pakistan. In projecting future populations, the United Nations has assumed that the annual birth rate would decline within twenty years to somewhere between forty-two .and twenty -eight children per thousand, and that there would be a marked decrease in mortality during the same period to between sixteen and twelve deaths per year per thousand people. As indicated in Table 1.3 (column 2). the higher birth rate estimated by the United Nations, if combined with a rapidly declining mortality, could nearly double the population of West Pakistan in the next twenty-five years. On the other hand, if the decrease in mortality is accompanied by markedly lower fertility, the population will increase by somewhat less than sixty percent over this period (column 4).
(7) See Report of the Food and Agriculture Commission, p. 558; Government of Pakistan', Ministry of Food and Agriculture, November 1960.
(8) Part of the increase may be an artifact, resulting from under counting in the 1951 census, which was taken before the country had fully recovered from the disturbances of partition. Under counting in 1951 is supported by the fact that, between 1941 and 1951, the census figures showed a population increase of only 5.4 million people, or 19.1 percent, whereas in the previous decade the increase was 20 percent. However, it is more likely that the low rate of increase between 1941 and 1951, as compared with 1931-41, was due to under counting in 1931 and over counting in 1941. Resistance activities in 1931 led to non-cooperation with the government, while in 1941, political rivalry among religious groups as the time of partition drew near made both sides try to swell their numbers in the census.
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Chapter 1
The United Nations estimates a slightly higher current birth rate for Pakistan than for India, but the birth rates in some other countries of the Far East, notably the Philippines and Thailand are apparently higher still, approaching fifty per thousand. In other Asiatic countries such as Taiwan and Malaya, birth rates are somewhat lower than in West Pakistan, but mortalities are much lower, less than ten per thousand, with the result that the annual rate of increase is over three percent. Several large countries in South America and Africa, including Brazil, Mexico, and Egypt, have rates of annual increase between three and four percent. It is conceivable that, with better health and more adequate nutrition, the annual birth rate in West Pakistan could rise to close to fifty per thousand, while the mortality could rapidly decline. The annual rate of population increase might then grow to more than three percent, or a doubling of population size in less than twenty three years.
Age Distribution
Because of high fertility West Pakistan is a country of young people. More than two out of five of its citizens (42.4 percent) are less than fifteen years old, and only one out of fifteen (6.9 percent) has reached the age of sixty.
Density of Population and Rate of Increase in Different Regions
Table 1.4 shows the distribution of population and the increase from 1951 to 1961 in different Districts and regions of West Pakistan. In the canal-irrigated portions of the Former Punjab, the increase of population was twenty-five percent between 1951 and 1961, slightly less than the increase for the Province as a whole. Because of immigration, the populations of Former Bahawalpur and the Former Sind increased more rapidly than that of the entire Province, while the poorly productive, mostly unirrigated districts in the northern part of the Former Punjab and the Former Northwest Frontier, though increasing significantly, nevertheless lagged considerably behind the rest of the country. Mianwali and D. G. Khan, in which canal irrigation is being rapidly extended, has high rates of population growth. The growth of Rawalpindi was primarily urban.
In both the Indus Plain and the sub -montane area to the north, cultivated land (land actually planted each year) averages little more than one acre for each person in the rural population. The man-land ratio is highest in the settled and comparatively productive canal-irrigated areas of the Former Punjab, and smallest in Former Sind and Former Bahawalpur, where irrigation development is occurring.
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Chapter 1
Proportion of rural and urban populations
Although the trend toward urbanization is strong in West Pakistan, the
Province is still overwhelmingly rural. In 1951 (see Table 1.5), 82 percent of the people lived in the country; by 1961 the proportion had fallen to 77.5 percent. A continuation of this trend during the next decade would give urban and rural populations by 1971 (using the "probable" population, projection in Table 1.3, column 3) of 15.5 and 38.5 million people, respectively 29 percent and 71 percent of the probable population at that time of 54 million in West Pakistan. The rural population would have increased by 16 percent and the urban population by 60 percent.
It is interesting to note that there are twenty cities and towns in West
Pakistan having between 50,000 and 500,000 people, and that their average rate of growth is comparatively high. These urban concentrations, widely distributed throughout the Province, could provide important opportunities for development of commercial agriculture and of industries based on agricultural needs and products.
Education
In 1951, according to the census taken during that year, 86.2 percent of the population of Pakistan were illiterate. It is likely that an even smaller percentage of the population than is indicated by this figure are "functionally" literate. The number of people who can read and understand a newspaper or a set of instructions, or who can write much more than their own name, is probably about one out of ten. Illiteracy is especially serious in the rural villages. Because only a few of the village adults can read and write, there is small respect for literacy. Children leave school when they are between six and ten years old, and they tend to forget what little they have learned in their attempt to conform to the adult society.
Agriculture Land, Water, and People in Combination
Agriculture in Pakistan's economy
Whether one considers population counts, contribution to national
income, markets for industries, supplies of raw materials, or products for export, the farmers of Pakistan are the foundation of her economy.
More than three -quarters of the people of West Pakistan live in farm villages; most of the rest have their roots in the soil. In 1960-61, 55 percent of Pakistan's national income (West and East Wings combined)
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Chapter 1
arose from agriculture as against 13 percent from manufacturing, 2 percent from mining, and 31 percent from government, services, and trade together. (9)The agricultural population is the major market for the other sectors. In 1955, about 96 percent of the output of the manufacturing sector was domestically consumed, chiefly by the agricultural sector. (10)Agriculture is also the source of most of the country's foreign exchange. Table 1. 5.1 shows approximate average amounts of foreign exports and imports from Pakistan's two Wings during 1959-61, together with average values for inter-Wing trade in those years.
IAgrieultural products accounted for 67 percent of the value of all exports. An additional 2 5 percent was made up of cotton textile and jute products, whose principal raw material comes from the farms. Although exports from West Pakistan were only a little more than a third of those from the entire country, the proportions of agricultural products and textiles were roughly similar, 58 percent and 27 percent respectively.
During the last few years, Pakistan has had an unfavorable balance
of trade. Although many factors are involved, including the increase of imports of needed capital equipment and the world-wide worsening of the terms of trade for raw-materials producers, Table 1.5.1 shows that the excess value of imports over exports is almost equal numerically to the cost of Pakistan's food imports. More than two-thirds of these were for use in West Pakistan. Fortunately, the loss of foreign exchange from food imports is comparatively small at the present time, because a major portion of these can be paid for in rupees, under agreements with surplus producing countries such as those made possible by United States Public Law 480.
Proportion of farm production in different regions
The Indus Plain produces 75 percent, by weight and value, of the food
and fiber grown in West Pakistan (Table 1.6). Nearly half the total comes from the nine canal-irrigated Districts of the Former Punjab, slightly over 20 percent from Former Sind, and just under 10 percent from Former Bahawalpur. About 15 percent of the total agricultural production is harvested from the Potwar Uplands and piedmont plains of the northern
(9) Government of Pakistan, Budget 196 1-62, Economic Survey and Statistics; April 1960 March 1961 (Karachi, 1961); Table No. 1.
(10) Computed from data published in J. C. H. Fei, "A Preliminary Input Output Table for Large-Scale Industries in Pakistan", "The Pakistan Development Review", 2 (Spring 1962); p. 69.
39




Chapter 1
Former Punjab. The remaining 10 percent comes largely from the Vale of Peshawar and other irrigated lands of the Former Northwest Frontier.
Food and other crops
In weight of useful organic matter, food grains are the principal agricultural crops of West Pakistan (Table 1.7). In terms of value, however, they make up only 42 percent of the total harvest. A third of the area planted each year is in wheat. The food grains next in importance are riee and millets, followed by corn, sorghum, and barley. Other food crops, including a variety of pulses, oil seeds, can sugar, fruits, vegetables, and potatoes, are planted on slightly more than a fifth of the land, and yield somewhat more than two -fifths of the total crop value. The principal non-food cash crops are cotton and tobacco, but only about 10 percent of the planted area is devoted to them, and they yield about 8 percent of the total value of crops. On the average, 12 percent of the planted area is in fodder. This is used in part, together with straw and some grains and pulses, to feed the bullocks and buffaloes that are needed to cultivate the land, and in part to feed the cows and cow buffaloes whose milk is such an essential component of the diet of the people.
Food and money values
In terms both of food energy and money value, cane sugar is a relatively high-yielding crop, giving nearly 10,000 calories per day per acre and over 500 rupees. The corn yield averages nearly 4,000 ealories per day per acre and 120 rupees per acre, followed by rice and wheat, both of which yield more than 3,000 calories per day per acre and 100 rupees per acre. The highest values, sometimes 1,000 rupees or more per acre, are obtained from fruits, principally mangoes, citrus fruits, and dates (and recently bananas), and these also have a relatively high caloric yield, probably more than 3,000 calories per day per acre. Oil seeds, though low in caloric value, are necessary for cooking, while gram and other pulses provide an essential source of protein.
Growing seasons and water re )quirements
There are two growing seasons. Rice, sorghum, millet, and corn,
together with some pulses and vegetables, and fodder, are grown during the Kharif, or summer season. Wheat, barley, gram, some vegetables, tobacco, and fodder., are grown during the Rabi, or winter season. Cotton and sugarcane are planted in the early spring and harvested in the late fall, so that acreage planted to these crops cannot be used again during the Rabi season. Orchards also require a year-round use of land.
40




Chapter 1
Oil seeds are usually planted late in the Kharif season and harvested during Rabi.
Because of their long growing seasons, sugarcane and cotton require
much more water than any of the other crops. The very high temperatures during summer result in a high rate of evapotranspiration, and thus all Kharif crops demand more water than those grown in Rabi. Rice is especially water -demanding, because it must be grown in flooded fields. In this water -short country, it is natural, therefore, that where winter water is available the acreage devoted to Rabi crops is usually more than the Kharif acreage. Relative to evapotranspiration, however, the river waters are lower in winter than in summer (compare Tables 1.1.1 and 1.2); hence in the southern part of the plain (Former Sind) the Kharif acreage is much higher than the Rabi acreage.
Cropping Pattern and Productivity
There is a marked variation between agricultural regions in the
proportions of land planted to different a-rops. In the most prosperous canal-irrigated Districts of the Former Punjab (Table 1.8), only about 44 percent of the total acreage is planted in food grains, and 35 percent is planted in cotton and fodder. Presumably much of the fodder in these relatively prosperous Districts is used for meat and milk production. Former Bahawalpur (Table 1.11) is the region of second highest production per acre. Here the proportion of food grains is less, and of cotton and fodder slightly more, than in the highly productive Districts of the Former Punjab. In general, the percentage of food grains increases and that of the cash crops -cotton and fodder(1) decreases as the productivity per acre diminishes. In areas Of low productivity the farmer must struggle for a bare subsistence, and hence he concentrates on food crops for himself and his family; he ean give emphasis to cash crops only in areas where the productivity per farm is sufficiently high to enable him to meet his subsistence needs on a fraction of his land. The highest percentage of food grains is found in the Districts with little or no canal irrigation in the Former Punjab (Tables 1.10.1 and 1.10.2). About two-thirds of the land in these Districts is planted in food grains, principally wheat, and less than 10 percent in cotton and fodder combined.
(11) Only a fraction of the fodder is sold directly, but the remainder is used, at least in part, to feed commercial meat, wool, milk, and ghee producing livestock.
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Chapter 1
Effect of Irrigation
Compared to rainfall, canal irrigation gives an assured and fairly well-regulated supply of water for agriculture. The times of water application can be adjusted to be of benefit for planting, early growth, and maturing of the crops. It should be expected, therefore, that a direct correlation would exist in West Pakistan, as elsewhere, between the percentage of sown land under canal irrigation in the different agricultural districts and average yields per acre. That this correlation exists is shown in Figure 1, but the variation between irrigated and non-irrigated lands is smaller than in many other regions of the world. In the Lyallpur District, where somewhat more than 100 percent (12) of the planted acre age is irrigated each year by canals, the value per acre of plant crops is Rs 185. Montgomery and Multan also have about 100 percent canal irrigation of the gross planted area, and show the second and third highest yields per acre, Rs 155 and Rs 144. The yields per aere diminish as the percentage of eanal irrigation decreases. In Gujrat and D. G. Khan, the percentage of canal irrigation is about 45 percent, and the yields per acre are, respectively, Rs 100 and Rs 70. The yields for these two Districts average slightly more than those for the dry-farmed lands of the northern Former Punjab.
The mean amount of water available in these dry-farmed Districts is larger than in the irrigated lands to the south, but nearly all of it comes from variable and uncertain rainfall. In some of the northern areas, particularly in Sialkot, rain is supplemented by water from Persian Wells, and yields are considerably higher than in the solely rain-fed regions.
Livestock and Poultry
In 1960, the estimated livestock population of West Pakistan included: 9 million cattle; 6.5 million water buffaloes; 12 million sheep and goats; and 7 million chickens. If estimates (13) made for northern Former Khairpur can be extrapolated to the entire Province, about 17 percent of the cattle and 49 percent of the buffaloes are milk cows. Nearly half the cattle are working bullocks; the remainder, about a third of the total population, are young animals (less, than three years old) or cows without calves. Only two percent of the buffaloes are mature males, while about 45 percent are young animals or barren cows.
(12) Complete double cropping is considered to be 200 percent utilization.
(13) Hunting Technical Services: "Khairpur Report," 1962.
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Chapter 1
Milk production per cow is very low; approximately 1300 pounds per year for cattle and 1800 pounds per year for buffaloes. Laying hens average only about 6-7 dozen eggs per year. Perhaps 60 percent of the milk production is used for human food; the remainder is fed to calves.
Variability in Production, Acreage under Cultivation, and Yield
Wheat production fell from a 1950 high of almost 4 million tons to. less than two-thirds of that amount in the drought year of 1952. The acreage planted in wheat was less sensitive to environmental conditions; but the average yield dropped from 830 pounds per acre in 1949 to a low of 560 in 1952. From 1953 to 1960 the average yield fluctuated between 660 and 750 pounds per acre, while acreage and production increased from 10.4 million acres and 3.6 million tons in 1953 to 12.1 million acres and 3.85 million tons in 1959.
Maize varied in yield from a drought low of 800 pounds per acre to a 1956 high of 960 pounds per acre. The production of maize fluctuated in a similar way. Barley production dipped to a drought low in 1952 of 92 thousand tons from a 1949 high of 145. It went up to 158 thousand tons in 1958 and again dipped by 13 percent in 1959. Sorghum (jowar) production varied erratically from a high near 290 thousand tons in 1953 to lows of 200 and 180 thousand tons in 1951 and 1957.
The rice crop went from a 1951 low of 720 thousand tons to about 820 thousand tons during 1954-56, and thence to a higher level, averaging 980 thousand tons, for the years 1958-60. The area under rice cultivation during 1954-56 averaged about 2.4 million acres. Recently it has climbed, and reached a peak in 1959 of almost 3 million. Raw sugar (gur) production has fairly consistently increased, going from a low of 0.54 million tons in 1951 to a peak of 1.2 in 1958. Acreage planted to sugar increased more rapidly than production, and, correspondingly, yield per acre decreased regularly from a 1949 high of 3,160 pounds of raw sugar to a 1960 low of 20380. Over the last eight years, cotton has shown little variation in yield from around 190 pounds of lint per acre. During this period, annual production of lint has also remained relatively constant, at 270 to 300 thousand tons.
The Pattern of Land Use
In Table 1.12, we have brought together data on the cultivated and culturable areas in the different administrative Districts of the Indus Plain and adjoining regions. More than 30 percent of the total reported area is not culturable. Over the decade 1949-50 through 1958-59, an average of 2/ 3 of the culturable land was actually cultivated. As we shall show below, the area of cultivated land has been increasing at a 43




Chapter 1
rate of several hundred thousand acres a year. During any particular year of the last decade, about 22 percent of the cultivated area lay fallow, while
9 percent of the remainder was double cropped. Consequently, the gross area sown to either a Kharif or a Rabi crop averaged 85.5 percent of the cultivated area. Out of the average of 29.6 million acres sown to a crop each year, 21.2 million, or 71 percent, were irrigated by perennial and non-perennial canals. Probably at least 2 million more acres were irrigated with water from Persian Wells.
There are marked differences between different regions. In the nine long-settled, largely canal-irrigated Districts of the Former Punjab,
(14) only about 13 percent of the total area of nearly 22 million acres is not considered culturable. This proportion varies from less than 9 percent in Lyallpur in the center of Rechna Doab, to 18 percent in Muzaffargarh, which contains a considerable proportion of the rough and sandy lands of the Thal Desert. In Muzaffargarh, only 29 percent of the land designated as culturable is actually cultivated. In Lahore and Lyallpur, on the other hand, all but about 14 to 15 percent of the culturable land is cultivated. The proportion of culturable but not cultivated land in other Districts of Chaj, Rechna, and Bari Doabs is somewhat higher, varying from 19 percent of the total culturable area in Montgomery to 30 percent in Sheikhupura, and to 38 percent in Jhang. Like Muzaffargarh District, part of Jhang lies in the Thal Desert. Sheikhupura has the highest percentage of waterlogged and saline land of any of the Punjab District. Approximately 12 percent of the cultivated area in the 9 Districts lay fallow, and an almost equal amount was double cropped; hence the gross sown area and the cultivated area were nearly the same during any particular year. Eighty-seven percent of the cultivated area was canal-irrigated, and about 10 percent received Persian Well irrigation.
The Gujrat District, in the northern part of Chaj Doab, receives canal irrigation over a much smaller proportion of the gross sown area (less than 45 percent). In this District and in Sialkot, which lies just to the east in Rechna Doab, the percentage of fallow land, and of culturable but not cultivated land, is small, and the cropping intensity is high. On the average, 25 percent of the gross sown area in these two Districts is irrigated with Persian Wells, about the same as the canal-irrigated area.
(14) These are: Lahore, Montgomery, and Multan in Bari Doab;
Guhranwala, Sheikhupura, and Lyallpur in Rechna Doab; Shahpur in Chaj Doab; Muzaffargarh in Lower Thal Doab; and Jhang, which lies partly in Rechna and partly in Chaj and Thal Doabs.
44




Chapter 1
In Former Bahawalpur, almost all the cultivated land is under canal irrigation; the percentages of fallow land and of double cropping are almost the same as in the canal-irrigated districts of the Former Punjab.
In Former Sind, on the other hand, nearly 41 percent of the supposedly cultivated land is reported a 's fallow and the percentage of double cropped land is small. Part of the land designated as fallow is probably only
-rarely cultivated and some may have been abandoned. It is likely that salt damage and waterlogging, together with shortage of irrigation water, have reduced the area which the farmers are able to cultivate economically.
Changes in gross sown area with time
In recent years, the total gross area in the Indus Plain and the adjoining Potwar Uplands has increased fairly regularly at a rate approximating 1.3 percent, or about 0.38 million acres per annum (see Table 1.13). The nine Districts with major canal irrigation in the Former Punjab increased at an average rate of 1.5 percent over the period 1949-59, or 0.19 million acres a year. In the regions under command of long -established canal systems, such as the Upper Chenab and the Central Bani Doab canals, the gross sown area rose by 1.7 million acres from 9.1 million in 1949 to 10.8 million in 1959. In two Districts with newly -developing canal irrigation, Mianwali and Muzaffargarh, the gross sown acreage increased by 0.5 million, from just over 1.7 million in 1949 to more than 2.2 million in 1959. The area irrigated by the Thal canal increased from 0.1 million acres in 1949 to more than 0.6 million acres in 1959.
In the older canal systems the increase in gross area almost certainly means that the volume of irrigation water per acre correspondingly decreased. This is a continuation of a long -established trend. Between 1905 and 1950, according to Majid, (lS)the amount of irrigation water per aere in the Kharif season declined at a rate of about 1.1 percent per year. In the Rabi season, the amount of water per acre declined at about 0.55 percent per year.
(15)" Note on the Value of Delta for the Various Punjab Canals in the Rabi on 1950-51;" Irrigation Branch, Public Works Department; March 1954.
45




Chapter 1
In the older canal systems the increase in gross area almost certainly means that the volume of irrigation water per acre correspondingly decreased. This is a continuation of a long- established trend. Between 1905 and 1950, according to Majid, (15) the amount of irrigation water per acre in the Kharif season declined at a rate of about 1.1 percent per year. In th ,e Rabi season, the amount of water per acre declined at about 0.55 percent per year.
Marketing and Prices
Within the villages, marketing is largely self-contained, with considerable barter and few quality standards. For export crops there is a c ommercial marketing system with some quality grading. These crops are generally sold for cash to village merchants, landlords, and traveling buyers, acting on their own behalf or as agents for processors and exporters in urban centers. Such middlemen perform an important assembly function for producers in outlying regions. Much of the cotton grown in Former Sind is sold to cotton ginners who have financed the farmers' variable costs for the current season.
For such perishable products as poultry, eggs, meat, vegetables, and
fruits, prices fluctuate widely at both wholesale and retail levels. Because of inadequacies of storage and transpoi*ation, there is a succession of gluts and shortages in the rural areas, with prices falling below costs of production in flush periods. In many cases prices are determined by quantity without-regard to quality. (16)
A. relatively small share of wheat production is sold outside the villiages, perhaps 15 to 30 percent. The remainder is consumed by the farmers and their, fellow villagers, and this consumption probably remains fairly stable except during years of crop failure. Variations in the size of the crop may thus strongly affect the volume of marketed supplies. In a good year the volume of wheat sold probably increases more than the increase in production; the reverse is likely to be true during a bad year.
(15) "Note on the Value of Delta for the Various Punjab Canals in the Rabi of 1950-51", Irrigation Branch, Public Works Department, March 1954.
(16) Government of Pakistan, Central Statistical Office, Cooperation and
Marketing Department, "Report on the Marketing of Fresh Fruits in Pakistan", 211 pp., Karachi, 1958.
46




Chapter 1
The Government sets floor and ceiling prices for wheat. Its wheat
policy attempts to strike a balance between reasonably stable prices to consumers and incentive prices to producers. This policy is based on the principle that thb Government will buy wheat from the farmers if prices fall below 13.5 rupees per maund ($76 per metric ton). If prices rise above the ceiling price (between 14 and 16 rupees per maund), the Government will sell from its wheat stocks in any quantity to any buyer.
By using imported food grains as a lever, the Government has been
relatively effective in controlling wheat prices during the last few years. Through its buying and selling operations, and its improvements in the transport and distribution system, it has been able to reduce markedly the previously wide seasonal price variations. In 1952, the pre-harvest wholesale wheat price was twice the post-harvest low, whereas in 1961 the difference was only 23 percent.(17) These high and low prices in l96lwere about four months apart; during the remainder of the year wheat price variations were small.,
The Government buys ~about 25 to 35 percent of the West Pakistan rice crop for sale in East Pakistan and for export. In every year since independence, coarse-grained rice has been shipped from West Pakistan to East Pakistan. During the decade from 1952 to 1961, the average was 60,000 tons per year.(l7) The long-grain aromatic varieties of rice produced in West Pakistan are popular in several eastern and middle African countries. Rice exports, mostly of these superior varieties, had increased by 1961 to 131,000 tons, worth $20 million. This value was almost as much as the combined total for the two previous years, though the volume was 20 percent smaller than that for 1959 and 1960.(18)
The Government is the only buyer and domestic marketer of superior grain rice, but it attempts to leave the foreign trade largely in private hands. Pakistan exporters withdraw samples of Government -owned stocks and send them to prospective buyers. When offers are received they are submitted for Government approval and traders may then export for their own profit.
(17) Government of Pakistan, Central Statistical Office, Monthly Statistical Bulletin, Volume 1 through 10, Karachi.
(18) 1Government of Pakistan, Central Statistical Office, "Foreign Trade Statistics of Pakistan," 1959 and 1960; data for 1961 from U.S. Department of Agriculture, Foreign Agricultural Service.
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Chapter 1
Storage and Transportation
In 1960, storage capacity was available in West Pakistan for 630,000(19) tons of food grains, about 10 percent of domestic consumption. A. quarter of this capacity was in the port of Karachi and three-quarters in the interior of the province. The second five-year plan calls for increasing storage capacity to 1.08 million tons by 1965, with one-third being in Karachi and two-thirds up country. Most storage capacity is in Government godowns, usually wooden sheds with a raised floor in which bagged grain is stacked. These Government storage facilities are designed primarily to facilitate distribution of imported and domestically produced grain to the cities. Wheat and rice storage facilities were filled to capacity during the first half of 1962.
Long distance transportation of agricultural commodities is principally by rail; short-haul feeder traffic is handled chiefly by bullock- or cameldrawn carts. All urban centers are connected by roads capable of handling trucks and automobiles, but the secondary roads to many villiages are inadequate for motor vehicle traffic.
Credit
There are three main sources of credit: individuals, cooperatives and Government institutions. Most loans are advanced by landlords, relatives or other village members. Lessthan 10' percent of the needs for agricultural credit are met by farmer cooperatives. Credit furnished by individuals -represents, in part, simply advance purchase of crops at depressed prices.
To provi de additional sources of short term funds, the Government
created the Agricultural Development Finance Corporation and the Agricultural Bank of Pakistan. These two institutions were merged in 1961 to become the Agricultural Development Bank of Pakistan. The Government subscribed more than 50 percent of the shares of the bank. A, rural credit. fund has been established within the State Bank of Pakistan to provide medium and long-term loans and to supply funds to co -operatives. (20)
(19) Government of Pakistan, Planning Commission, "Construction of Food Grain Storage," Karachi, 1962.
(20) Hussain, S.A., "Agricultural Credit in Pakistan" Proceedings of the First Near-East South Asia Seminar, University of Ceylon, April 1961, pp 27-34, 1961.
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Chapter I
A minimum of several months is usually required to obtain farm loans from one of these government lending institutions. Although the official interest rate is as low as 7 percent, other payments to obtain the loan may bring the actual rate up to 15 percent or more. Loans must be secured by a clear title to the farmer's land, which means that to obtain a loan the farmer must place his basic security in jeopardy. Because of the fragmented pattern of ownership among families, the consent of a considerable number of people must be obtained before the security is valid. A large fraction of rural credit must be used to meet the farmers' expenses for weddings and other traditional and essential social needs.
The State of Agriculture and the People's Food Sup2ly
Pakistan presents the disheartening picture of an agricultural nation that cannot feed itself. During the decade of the 1950's its food situation steadily worsened, for farm production lagged behind population growth.
The average yearly agricultural production in West Pakistan over the decade from 1949 to 1959 was sufficient to provide foods with an energy content of less than 2,000 calories a day for 36.5 million people. (Table 1.14021) By 1960, the population had increased 16 percent, while food crop production had risen only 10 to 12 percent. A similar
-situation existed in East Pakistan. To make up the deficit, food grains and other agricultural products equivalent to about 10 percent of the country's agricultural production are now being imported. In 1960, the value of food imports was nearly 25 percent of the total value of all goods brought into the country (Table 1. 15). But even with these imports, the energy content of the average human diet in West Pakistan is lower than it was twenty years ago. (22) Because of the rising need for energycontaining foods for human beings, it has probably not been possible to
(2 1) The estimates for various sources of animal protein in Table 1. 14 are quite uncertain, because we, have been unable to find satisfactory information on either meat or milk production in West Pakistan. In any case,, it is almost certain that production of animal protein is not increasing, because of the need to concentrate on plant crops which yield more calories per acre, and per acre foot of water, than do animal foods.
(22) U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, "Indices of Agricultural Production for the Far East and South Asia", Washington, 1962.
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Chapter 1
increase meat or milk production in recent years, with the result that the content of animal protein in the average person's diet has seriously decreased. We believe that it is now less than eight and perhaps less than seven grams per person per day.
According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the caloric content of the food available to the average West Pakistani housewife to feed her family should be about 2,300 calories per person per day. As tables 1. 14 and 1. 15 indicate, this is 10 percent more than the average available in West Pakistan, even with large imports of food grains.
Total protein requirements for adults are about one gram per day per kilogram of body weight; for children the requirement is doubled.(23) Thus the average protein need in West Pakistan is 55 to 60 grams per person per day, roughly the amount in the available food stuffs. But only a fraction of the protein in most foods can be retained and used by the body. Other things being equal, this fraction depends on the proportions between amino acids. Of the 22 amino acids, between 8 and 10 are essential components for human nutrition. The percentage of protein retained for body maintenance and growth is partly determined by the requirement that the proportions of these essential amino acids in the retained fraction must equal or exceed certain minimum values.(24) Several of the essential amino acids, particularly lysine, methionine and tryptophan, are present in larger amounts in animal protein than in vegetable protein,(25) Two others, threonine and valine, are also generally higher in animal protein. Consequently, although animal protein as such may not be essential for human nutrition, the total amount of protein ingested must be relatively large if only vegetable proteins are eaten. With the minimal diets of West Pakistan, the daily amount of animal protein should probably be at least twice the present amount, or approximately 15 grams per person per day. In Japan, Taiwan and Korea, the average daily animal protein intake is about 24 grams.(26)
(23) Food and Nutrition Board, National Academy of Sciences, "Recommended Dietary Allowances", Washington, 1958.
(24) Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations, "Protein Requirements", FAO Nutritional Studies No. 16, Rome, 1957.
(25) Heinz International Research Center, "Nutritional Data", pp 5-7, H. J. Heinz Company, Pittsburgh, 1962,
(26) Joseph S. Chen; "Report of the Standing Committee on Nutrition", Proceedings Tenth Pacific Science Congress, Bishop Museum, Honolulu, 1963.
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Chapter I
Agricultural production in West Pakistan would need to be increased about 15 percent to feed the additional livestock that are needed to meet the deficit in animal protein. When this is added to the 10 percent deficit in the caloric content of the present human diet, it is clear that either the import of food and feed grains would have to be nearly tripled or, if food imports ceased, agricultural production of West Pakistan would have to be increased by at least 35 percent to provide an adequate diet for the present population.
Implicit in the above discussion is the assumption that the available food supply will be equally distributed throughout the population. It is more likely that the distribution of food is uneven-more than half the people have access to less than half the available food supply. In an investigation(27) of food consumption relative to income levels of several hundred persons in rural areas of the Former Punjab, half the individuals studied, consumed only 40 percent of the available food (in terms of calories), while the remaining half consumed 60 percent.
Without an actual nutrition survey and a study of possible food deficiency symptoms among the people, it is difficult to know whether the diets of West Pakistan are dangerously low in vitamins, minerals and other essential minor nutrients. However, it is almost certain that average diets would be greatly improved if they contained a larger proportion of fruits, vegetables and other protective foods. An increase in fruit and vegetable production would require a considerable rise in the level of agricultural productivity because these crops do not average as many calories per acre as sugar cane and food grains.
Although crop production fluctuates rather widely from year to year, the average yearly increase is about 2 percent and tends to be a fixed tonnage amount rather than a geometrical increase. With the present rate of population growth, this means that by 1970, the gap between food supply and human needs will have widened by about 10 percent.
Of course, it is not necessary for even an agricultural region to be selfsufficient in food production. There are many prosperous agricultural economies, for example Hawaii and the meat-raising regions of the Western United States, that are heavily specialized and import thebulk of the foodstuffs. This is not the case in West Pakistan. If an agricultural nation is to
(27) Board of Economic Inquiry, Punjab; Pub. No. 121. The poorer half of the population obtained only 26 percent of total animal proteins; the wealthier half obtained 74 percent.
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Chapter 1
support itself by exporting specialized products, it must produce something of sufficient value to pay for the food it needs. But as Table 1. 16 shows, the gross value of crops and livestock produced per capita by the rural population of West Pakistan is only about Rs 178 ($37) a year. It ranges from Rs 209.($44) in the recently colonized areas, Former Sind and Former Bahawalpur, to as low as Rs 131 ($27) in the poorer, unirrigated districts of the Former Punjab and the Northwest Frontier Province. The table also presents estimates of the annual value produced per agricultural worker in the major agricultural regions of West Pakistan.. These figures, ranging from Rs 1660 to Rs 1000 ($348 to $210) can be compared with the average wages for workers in manufacturing industries of about Rs 1200 ($250) per year.
It is sometimes said that the widening food deficit in Pakistan can continue to be made up by essentially subsidized imports from food surplus countries. This might be true if the situation in Pakistan could be considered in isolation. But the fact is that only a third of mankind has an adequate diet. These are the 900 million people who live in the thirty industrialized nations of the northern part of the earth. Their production of food and things they can trade for food assures their food supply now and for the foreseeable future. In the remaining seventy countries of the semitropical and tropical regions, the foods eaten by the people are too small in total calories and too low in fats and animal proteins. In these countries, which contain two-thirds of the world's population--over 1.9 billion peoplemalnutrition is widespread and persistent, and is increasing in severity because the rapid expansion in human population is outrunning agricultural production.
In order to have an adequate amount of energy- producing -foods, the
people of the low-income countries need about one-third more food grains than they are receiving both from domestic production and from imports.(28) If their additional needs were to be supplied by the food exporting countries, the latter would have to increase their production by nearly 20 percent and imports by the low-income countries would need to be more than doubled. The value of these additional imports would be close to, $2 billion a year. Present transportation, storage and distribution facilities, let alone foreign exchange, are completely inadequate to allow such an increase in imports.
The situation in animal proteins and fats is as serious as in food grains. Although the low-income countries are actually net exporters of vegetable
(28) See Tables 3 and 4, pages 21 and 23, of "The World Food Budget,
1962 and 1966k' Foreign Agricultural Economic Report No. 4, U.S. Department of Agriculture, October 1961.
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Chapter I
oils to the highly industrialized countries, their own populations have a dietary deficit of over 30 percent in fat. More than three million tons of vegetable oils, worth close to $1 billion., are needed to make up this dietary deficiency. The critical deficiency in animal proteins is particularly .severe for pre-school children and pregnant and lactating mothers, but it makes entire populations more vulnerable to disease and reduces the length of life of adults. In terms of non-fat dry milk, world production would need to be almost doubled, from one and a half to three million tons, in order to provide adequate animal protein for the poorer countries. As with food grains it is most unlikely that the deficiency of animal protein in the low-income countries as a whole could be made up by imports, because of difficulties of transport, storage and distribution, even if the food surplus countries were willing and able to double their production.
In all the low-income countries, it is not sufficient. simply to increase food supply to meet the needs of the present populations. An annual rate of increase considerably higher than 2.5 percent is needed, at least for the next several decades until population growth can be brought under control.
Other Needs for Agricultural Expansion
Beside the desperate need to raise food production for its own malnourished and growing population, an increase in agricultural production in West Pakistan would bring benefits to the entire country. The cotton textile industry is rapidly expanding, yet it is far from meeting the domestic needs for cotton cloth in the two Wings of Pakistan, let along the potentialities of export markets for inexpensive cotton fabrics in Africa and Asia. Demand for these fabrics in Pakistan is one of the sources of inflationary pressures within the country. During the last ten years, the requirements of the domestic textile industry have been met by a reduction in raw cotton exports. In the early 1950's most of the cotton crop was exported; by 1961, exports accounted for only 13 percent of the crop. If this trend continues, a m arked increase in cotton production will be needed within the next few years to meet the requirements of Pakistan's textile mills.
Wool now makes up about three percent of the value of agricultural production in West Pakistan and the half of the clip that is exported brings in between four and five percent of the country's foreign exchange. The world market for wool should remain strong for many years to come, and should be able to absorb a considerable expansion in West Pakistan's wool production.
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Chapter 1
Mention has already been made of the strong export market for the high-quality rice that now accounts for about 15 percent of West Pakistan's rice crop. This market shows no signs of saturation. Another 15 percent of the rice crop goes to East Pakistan, and thereby contributes to making land available for production of jute, Pakistan's principal export. An increase in West Pakistan rice production could lead to expansion of these inter-Wing rice shipments and thus indirectly to a rise in export earnings through increased jute production.
Sugar production has risen rapidly in West Pakistan during the last 15 years. About one percent of the sugar crop is now exported to East Pakistan, but if sugar consumption per capita in the East Wing approached that of West Pakistan, a 60 percent increase in sugar production could be easily absorbed today.
.About a third of the crop of rape and mustard seeds is taken by the East Pakistanis, who enjoy the strong taste of the oils pressed from these seeds. Half the West Pakistan tobacco crop also goes to East Pakistan. With continued population growth, hopefully accompanied by economic growth, the markets for these commodities should become much larger. Promising possibilities for speciality fruits and vegetables are discussed in Chapter 6.
Comparison of Crop Yields with Those of Other Countries
The low values of output per capita in West Pakistan, whether measured in terms of value or of nutritional content, reflect the fact that agricultural yields in the Indian Subcontinent are among the lowest of all countries where agriculture is practiced on a large scale. A comparison of the yields of major crops for countries and regions in different stages of agricultural development and practicing different intensities of land use is given in Tables 1.17 and 1.18. In general, the average productivity of land in Pakistan is somewhat higher than in India. But in countries such as Egypt, Japan, and Western Europe, where agriculture is highly developed and land must be used intensively, yields per acre of food grains and cotton are from two to three- and-a-half times larger than those in Pakistan. Even in the United States, where land is abundant and labor is short, average yields for the country as a whole are,in almost all cases, two to four times the Pakistani yields. In the southwestern United States, which is comparable in climate and nature of water supply to West Pakistan, the yield. of cotton is more than five times the yield in the Former Punjab or Former Sind. The yield of sugar in the Hawaiian Islands is seven-and-a-half times the West Pakistan yield.
54




Chapter 1
Yields under irrigation are ordinarily much higher than in areas where
farming depends on rainfall or other natural precipitation, especially semiarid areas in which 'the rainfall is often inadequate and always uncertain. For example, in the southwestern states of the United States, where cotton is grown under irrigation, an average of two bales of cotton lint is harvested from each planted acre, while the traditional cotton-growing lands of the southeast produce only about one bale per acre, Canal-irrigated cotton lands in Pakistan yield only about 50 percent more cotton per acre than land without canal irrigation. In Hawaii, the irrigated sugar plantations produce each year a nearly unbelievable one hundred tons per acre of sugar cane, nearly five times as much as is grown in Louisiana and Florida. Canal-irrigated land planted to sugar cane in West Pakistan yields about 25 percent more than acreage which depends on rainfall.
Not only are farm yields low in Pakistan at present, they are not increasing at anything like the rates attained in some of the more advanced countries. In the United States during the 1950's, the yield per acre of rice, wheat, corn, and cotton increased by about six percent a year, as can be seen in Table 1. 19. The yields of wheat in Mexico, of sorghum in the United States (similar to the jowar grown in Pakistan), and of corn in Japan and the USSR are increasing at a rate that should double productivity in less than ten years. In contrast, none of the major crops in West Pakistan, except possibly tobacco, have shown significant increases in yield per acre during the past decade, although total production of some of them has increased modestly.
The Problem of Waterlogging and Salinity
As soon as the new perennial canals of the Punjab were constructed and filled, it was noticed that the level of water in wells began to rise. Previously, the water.table had been close to the surface only near the junctions of the rivers in the lower reaches of the Doabs, and under the narrow marginal plains along the, river courses that were flooded each year during the monsoon. In the'centers of the Doabs, away from these active flood plains, the depth to water was initially 50 to 70 feet.
This topography of the water table represented a dynamic equilibrium between infiltration of river and rain water in the northern region, underground flow, and evaporation in the southern parts of the Doabs. The equilibrium was upset by leakage from the new canals and water courses. At least a third of the water diverted to the canals percolated downward to the water table, and this greatly increased the over-all rate of infiltration.
55




Chapter I
Over vast areas, the water rose steadily, season after season, at a rate of 1 to 2 feet a year, until it came within 10 to 15 feet of the land surface. After this level had been reached, the water table continued to move upward, though more slowly.
When one flies over the Former Punjab today, soggily wet land and
even standing water can be seen near some canal margins, in old meander scars, drainage channels, and other low-lying areas. Where the water table has reached the root zone in the farmer's fields, it tends to drown out the crops by preventing needed aeration of the roots.
More serious is the capillary rise and evaporation of the underground water that occurs whenever the water table is within ten feet of the surface. The salts left behind by evaporation are deposited on the fields and in the soil; withinin a few years, the soil salt content builds up to a level that seriously inhibits, and may completely prevent, plant growth. For example, in an area where the underground water has a salinity of 1,000 parts per million, evaporation at a rate of 2 feet per year (a typical value when the water table is only a few feet deep) will raise the salt content of the top 3 feet of soil to about 1 percent in 20 years. This is too high for even the hardiest crops.
Ground water evaporation is only one of the causes of high salinity in the soils of the Former Punjab. The southern part of this region was initially a desert, and, as in all deserts, the alluvial deposits laid down by intermittent floods were accompanied by salt residues. The Punjab soils have undergone only moderate weathering, and at least in the southern area there may have been little leaching of their original salt contents.
,/ Irrigation practices have also contributed to salt accumulation. Water from the canals is spread so thinly over the land that the average quantity on the fields is less than the potential evapotranspiration during the growing season. Percolation through the silt soils is slow; consequently, none of the irrigation water washes down very far beneath the root zone before it has evaporated, and the residue of salt left by evaporation remains in the upper soil layers. Because of the remarkably low salt concentration of the canal waters, this practice does little noticeable harm over a short period, but over decades it must inevitably lead to damaging salt accumulations unless occasional floods or heavy rains wash the salt downward out of the soil.
56




Chapter 1
Although some damage from salination or waterlogging occurs in all canal-irrigated Districts of the Former Punjab, the problem is most severe in four Districts: Gujranwala, Sheikhupura, Jhang, and Muzaffargarh. The first two, Gujranwala and Sheikhupura, comprising the northern half of the canal-irrigated area of Rechna Doab, contain nearly a million acres of severely saline or waterlogged land. The amount of waterlogged or saline land in Sheikhupura is equal to more than 50 percent of the presently-cultivated area. In Gujranwala, the number of affected acres is over 40 percent of the number of cultivated acres. In both these Districts, part of the damaged land has been abandoned, and part is still cultivated, but we have not been able to find the relative proportions. Perhaps as much as half of the saline land has also suffered severe sodium damage, which has impaired its permeability. Jhang and Muzzaffargarh each contain two areas affected by the confluence of the rivers, at the southern tips of Chaj and Rechna Doabs, and, Bari and Thal Doabs, respectively. Before the beginning of canal irrigation, the water table was fairly close to the surface in these areas because the river confluences effectively dammed the flow of underground water. The situation has been worsened by irrigation, and these two Districts now contain at least 500,000 acres of waterlogged and saline land.
Table 1.12 gives estimates of the areas in the various Former Punjab
Districts that have been damaged by salination and waterlogging.(29) It will be seenthatatotal of approximately 2.5 million acres is recorded as stricken. This is 20 percent of the canal-irrigated area, and 15 percent of the cultivated area in the Former Punjab Districts within the Indus Plain.
(29) These estimates are taken from 'Statistics of West Pakistan, Agricultural Data* issued in November 1958 by the Bureau of Statistics of the Department of Power, Irrigation, and Development of the Government of West Pakistan. Damage due to salinity (called "thur") and to waterlogging (called asem") is reported separately in this publication, but about 97 percent of the damage is attributed to salinity. Salinity damage is defined as "the areas in which white effervescence is apparent on the natural surface during the months of December, January, or February, causing 1/5 of more damage to the crop of the area." Similarly, waterlogging damage is stated to be "the fields rendered unfit for cultivation to the extent of 1/5 or more of the area by their sub-soil moisture."
57




Chapter 1
In proportion to their size, Chaj and Rechna Doabs are most seriously blighted by waterlogging and salinity, but 600,000 acres in Bari Doab are also affected, particularly in the southern part of Multan District and in the northern parts of Montgomery and Lahore.
The figures we have cited for waterlogging and salinity damage in the Former Punjab are less than half of those given in the OReport on a Reconnaissance Survey of the Land Forms, Soils, and Present Land Use of the Indus Plains," published in 1958 under a Colombo Plan Cooperative Project. The latter figures, which have been repeated in the 'Program for Waterlogging and Salinity Control in the Irrigated Areas of West Pakistan,"(30) were based on aerial photographic mapping and not on estimates of crop damage from salination, or measurements of water levels and soil salt content. As the report itself indicates, these aerial photographic estimates are subject to considerable uncertainty (p. 378). In any case, it is clear that the problem of waterlogging and salinity damage in the Former Punjab has reached serious proportions. In agreement with the conclusions of previous investigators, we are convinced that it can be cured or arrested in areas of relatively fresh and usable ground water by constructing a system of large wells to provide vertical drainage. Most of the water pumped to the surface by these wells would be carried off by evapotranspiration; most of the remainder would percolate back into the ground, carrying the soil salts with it; a small part would be disposed of in the rivers. A large fraction of the saline soils can be reclaimed, though this will be slow and expensive in areas where the permeability has been lowered by sodium damages. ..
Waterlogging and Salinity in Former Bahawalpur
Throughout the Former State of Bahawalpur, a salt efflorescence appears on uncropped land, but soil salinity is said not to have a major adverse effect on agricultural production. The desert areas to the south and east apparently form a great sump in which some of the underground flow from the Punjab Rivers rise near to the surface and evaporates. Over most of the cultivated lands, the water table is mapped by the West Pakistan Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA)(31) as being within 15 feet of the surface, and adequate drainage will undoubtedly become a problem in the future. This problem may be difficult to solve if, as suspected, the underground water is highly saline.
(30) West Pakistan Water and Power Development Authority, May 1961.
(31) op. cit.
58




Chapter 1
At present, severe waterlogging occurs over an area watered by the
Eastern Sadiquia Canal, northeast of the town of Bahawalnagar, and along the upper part of the Panjnad Canal in Rahimyar Khan. The Bahawalnagar area suffers from a shortage of water as well as from waterlogging. Much of it has been abandoned by irrigators, and is reverting to sand desert, or to dry farming.
According to the Colombo Plan report, the total area of waterlogged land in Former Bahawalpur is about 500,000 acres.
Waterlogging and Salinity in Former Sind
Two large areas in Former Sind make up the principal regions of
damaging waterlogging and soil salinity in West Pakistan. One of these is the broad plain of the upper Sind, stretching 200 miles along the right side of the Indus from Dadu, 75 miles above Hyderabad, to Kandhkot and Kashmor. The northern half of this region will be watered by the new Gudu Barrage canals; to the south, perennial and seasonal irrigation is furnished by the canals of the Sukkur Barrage. "'Water lies all the year round in some ..depressions; other low spots becomes marshy during summer, but dry up in winter. Even in lands not directly affected by waterlogging, many of the finer-textured soils are so impermeable and puddled that cultivation is dif'ficult or impossible.
"Almost all unirrigated lands are covered with a crust of salt and as
salinity increases in extent and severity, so lands fall into disuse. Large areas of cultivated land have been abandoned. Most areas are now affected ,by surface salts, but the condition can still be ameliorated to a certain extent by giving heavy applications of irrigation water." (32)
During the summer season, rice is grown over most of this area. Irrigation water, furnished principally in the summer, stands in the rice fields and is frequently renewed. Winter crops, called dubari, are grown with residual soil moisture from the summer irrigation. Surveys by Hunting
(32) Landforms, Soils and Land Use of the Indus Plains, West Pakistan, published for the Government of Pakistan by the Government of Canada; A Colombo Plan Cooperative Project; February 1958.
59




Chapter 1
Technical Services(33) show that, out of 3.7 million acres under canal command, the soil over 1.7 million acres is non-saline or slightly saline (average salt content in the top 3 feet of soil is less than 0.25 percent); in 1.0 million acres the soil is moderately saline (salt content less than
0.4 percent); while in 1.0 million acres the soil contains more than 0.4 percent salt, and cultivation is unprofitable or impossible. About 2.4 million acres are actually cultivated in the three right bank Districts of Lar'ana, Jacobabad, and Dadu, at a cropping intensity close to 100 percent. The cultivated area is just about equal to the area of non-saline to moderately saline land. According to WAPDA, the problem of drainage and leaching to reduce the soil salinity in the rice-growing part of the region can probably best b-e solved by constructing shallow surface drains. In the areas of perennial canal irrigation, deep drains may also be necessary. As pointed out in Chapter 2, continuation of rice culture in these permeable soils is highly unpromising and other crops which do not require standing water should be substituted for rice.
The other major region of waterlogging and salinity in the Former Sind is the Lower Sind Plain and the Indus Delta. Together these form a large triangle with its apex at Hyderabad and its base along the high tide line. The area is under the command of the new Ghulam Mohammed Barrage canal system, and. is still being developed, largely for rice cultivation, with non-perennial irrigation. The southeastern and southwestern corners of the triangle, containing about 1.5 million acres, are near sea level, and hence the pre-irrigation water table tends to stand within eight to fifteen feet of the surface. The south central part is higher, but is nevertheless a vast expanse of saline waste. Throughout the southern part of the triangle, salt efflorescence tends to form everywhere on uncropped land. Although the level of ground water fluctuates from season to season, permanent swamps and marshes lie in many depressions, and the entire southern two thirds of the triangle, making up a total of about
2.3 million acres, is mapped as saline. About 1.1 million acres in the northern third of the triangle contain coarse-textured and more permeable soils, and high soil salinity and waterlogging are less common here. Out of 2 million acres which will be under command of the Ghulam Mohammed canal systems, Hunting Technical Services has mapped 35.4 percent, or
(33) Sukkur-Gudu-Ghulam Mohammed Drainage and Salinity Control Project Report No. 9; Hunting Technical Services-Sir M. MacDonald and Partners; London 196160




Chapter 1
0.7 million acres as non-saline to moderately saline (soil salt content less than 0.4 percent), 0.7 million acres as saline (0.4 to 1.0 percent salt), and 0.6 million acres as ultra-saline (more than 1 percent salt). The latter may not be economically reclaimable because of sodium damage. Reclamation of the 0.7 million saline acres is probably economically feasible, though costly and difficult. In any case, drainage is essential if the 0.7 million acres of relatively good land are to be protected from further salt accumulation. (34)
On the left bank of the Indus, east and north of Hyderabad, lies the major, part of Former Sind," covering some 7.5 million acres and containing about 4.3 million acres of canal-irrigated land. Severe salinity and waterlogging are confined to two tracts. One of these lies between the Rohri and the East and West Khaipur Feeder Canals, in the northern part of the former Khairpur State. With a culturable commanded area of some 650,000 acres, and a canal-irrigated cultivated area of 575,000 acres in Former Khairpur, saline and very saline soils (more than 0.5 percent salt) now cover 140,000 acres in the northern area. Under 76,000 acres, the water table lies within 3.3 feet of the surface, and within 7 feet of the surface under 340,000 acres. The water is slowly rising throughout the tract, except where it already lies within 3 to 4 feet of the surface. There are extensive areas of saline waste, and some onceproductive land has been abandoned.
The Khipro Plain, lying next to the Thar Desert, some 75 to 100 miles east of Hyderabad, contains 500,000 to 700,000 recently cultivated acres of problem lands. Although no detailed surveys have been made, salinity and waterlogging have apparently worsened in recent years to the point where crop yields have diminished, and much land has been abandoned. Water stands throughout the year in depressions and within 2 to 4 feet of the surface in all low-lying areas.
In both upper and central Former Sind, waterlogging is apparently
caused primarily by the percolation of surplus irrigation water from the fields, rather than by canal leakage. It is aggravated by excessively poor drainage, resulting from the flatness of the land and the small differences
(34) TGaja Detailed Planning Report: Sukkur-Gudu-Ghulam Mohammed Drainage and Salinity Control Projects, Report No. 9"; Hunting Technical Services-Sir M. MacDonald and Partners; London 1962.
61




Chapter 1
in elevation between the Indus River and the affected areas. Water tables were probably quite high, even before irrigation began, and, in most places, the underground water has a high salt content. Although a lowering of the water table can probably be induced by pumping from tube wells over a sufficiently large area, this would not, in general, have the advantage, which is so readily attainable over most of the Punjab, of increasing the irrigation water supply. In most areas, expensive conveyance channels will have to be constructed to enable disposal of the pumped water in the Indus River.
Total areas of waterlogged and severely saline land
By adding the figures given in the above pages, we arrive at a total of about 6.5 million acres of actually or potentially culturable lands in the Indus Plain that are seriously affected by waterlogging and/or high soil salinity. This is a fourtlA of the average gross sown areas during the past decade. There is little question that in several million additional acres the soil salt contents are too high to allow optimum crop production. On the other hand, a fraction of the saline and waterlogged area has never been cultivated, and a smaller fraction is not cultivated at present.
Over three million acres,2,r half of the affected land., is in Former Sind, and its total area is equivalent to half the total gross area sown in this region. But the area of cultivated land that is seriously affected cannot be more than two million acres, or a third of the gross sown area.
In Former Bahawalpur, the area of waterlogged and salinity damaged land
is about 17 percent of the gross sown area, roughly the same as in the Former Punjab. In general, we may conclude that the area of damaged canal- irrigated and cultivated land is roughly 5 million acres, or about 18 percent of the gross sown area in the Indus Plain, and 22 percent of the canal-irrigated sown area.
Effects on Agricultural Production
It is difficult to obtain a quantitative measure of the effects that waterlogging and salinity have had to date on agricultural production. Tables 1.8 and 1.9 give average data over the decade from 1949 to 1959 on areas sown to different crops, yields,.and crop values in the nine Punjab Districts with major canal irrigation. The percentage of waterlogged and saline land is low, averaging less than 10 percent of the cultivated area, in fives of these Districts: Lyallpur, Shahpur, Lahore, Montgomery, and Multan. Their
62




Chapter 1
average cropping pattern and yield per acre are shown in Table 1.8. In the four other Districts, shown in Table 1.9, Gujranwala, Jhang, Muzaffargarh, and Sheikhupura, waterlogged and saline lands average 36 percent of the cultivated area. The Districts that are not very waterlogged or saline had an average yield per acre over the last decade worth Rs 151, while in the more highly waterlogged Districts, the value per acre was only Rs 124. However, in the Districts with low waterlogging, 93 percent of the gross sown area was canal-irrigated, as against 72 percent in the four Districts with high waterlogging. In an attempt to separate these two effects, we have plotted in Figure 1 the average values.per acre in each District against percent of canal-irrigated area, and have indicated for each District the percent of saline and waterlogged land. It can be seen immediately that there is a direct relationship between yield per acre and extent of canal irrigation, while there is little or no relationship between yield and the amount of waterlogging and salinity. Although many factors enter into these yield figures, it may very well be that the farmers have tended to concentrate on the most productive land and to shift their efforts away from the damaged areas.
For example, as Table 1.12 shows, the canal commanded area plus the area irrigated by wells is from 20 to 100 percent larger than the gross sown area in the four waterlogged and saline Districts, whereas in Districts with less waterlogging, the gross sown area is usually nearly equal to, or even greater than, the canal commanded plus well-irrigated areas.
Future trend of waterlogging and salinity
The area of severe waterlogging and salinity damage in the cultivated lands of West Pakistan is increasing at a rate of 50,000 to 100,000 acres, or 0.2 percent to 0.4 percent per year. At least in the Former Punjab, we have found no reason to believe that this rate is accelerating. When the water table rises close to the surface in low-lying areas, the rate of evaporation rapidly increases to 2 feet or more per year. This evaporation would lower the water level if underground inflow from surrounding high lands did not occur. Thus the low-lying land protects the higher land by draining off some of the water from canal leakage that would otherwise cause the water table to rise under the higher land. A dynamic equilibrium will be reached when the acreage from which underground evaporation is occurring, times the average rate of evaporation in feet per year, equals the quantity of water, in acre feet per year, which leaks downward to the
63




Chapter I
aquifer from canals, distributaries, and water courses. At the present timeJ, in the Former Punjab, this quantity is less than 10 million acre feet; hence the total area of severely waterlogged land, both cultivated and uncultivated, cannot much exceed about 5 million acres, or 20 percent of the total area of the canal-irrigated Districts in the Punjab. The area of land damaged by salt accumulation can continue to increase, however, to a much higher percentage of both the cultivated and the total area., because evaporation of underground water will deposit salt at the surface even when the water table is below the plant root zone. With the dynamic equilibrium we have just described, the rate of evaporation should remain relatively constant, and several years, or possibly even decades will be required to produce serious salt accumulation and sodium damage over large areas outside the low-lying waterlogged regions. This salt accumulation could be kept partially under control, even w I without increasing the supply of irrigation water, by proper irrigation practices. This would mean a reduction in the total irrigated area so that sufficient water could be supplied to each irrigated area to meet the leaching requirement., described in Chapter .
The above discussion is not intended to suggest that a vigorous attack should not be made on the problem of waterlogging and salinity. It is meant rather to allay the fear commonly expressed., that West Pakistan agriculture faces an early catastrophe, and to emphasize the need for a broad assault on the many complex and interrelated problems that depress agricultural production in West Pakistan. The problem of waterlogging and salinity is only one of these problems, and it cannot be effectively solved in isolation.
The Problem of Agriculture
The problem of agriculture in West Pakistan is both a physical and a human one. It is a problem of land, of water., and of people, and of the interactions among them. Many of its facets have been discussed in previous sections of this chapter. They can be summarized under five main headings!
1. High density and rapid growth of population. The 46 million
inhabitants of West Pakistan are attempting to grow their food from 35 million acres, about 3/4 of an acre per capita. The cultivated area is increasing at 1.3 percent a year; the population by 2.4 percent. Agricultural production grows, on the average, by 2 percent per year.
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Chapter 1
2. Water shortage. We estimate that in the future only 138 million acre feet annually will be available to West Pakistan from the rivers of the Indus Plain. Because of the seasonal nature of the rivers and the shortage of surface storage, nearly half the river water flows to the sea unused during a short two months of summer, and a large fraction of the remainder is lost from the irrigation canals before it reaches the farmers' fields. Less than 2 feet per acre is available for the presentlyirrigated land.
3. System of land holding. Many of the farmers are sharecropping tenants, and have little incentive to increase production. Nearly all of them struggle with small and widelyseparated plots that multiply the difficulties of efficient use of irrigation and farm animals.
4. Salinity and water logging. The fertility of several million cultivated acres, amounting to perhaps 20 percent of the sown area, has been impaired, -and in some cases destroyed, by the rise of the water table and the accumulation of salt in the soil.
5. Primitive methods of cultivation. In West Pakistan we have the wasteful paradox of a great and modern irrigation system pouring its waters onto lands cultivated as they were in the days of Abraham, Isaac, and Jacob.
Any of these difficulties would hold agricultural productivity down; coexisting, they confront the farmers of Pakistan with overwhelming problems. The first four have been discussed in previous sections. Something more must now be said about the fifth.
In West Pakistan the land is plowed by a wooden plow of ancient design
with a tiny steel tip, pulled by a pair of bullocks enfeebled by undernourishment. Unselected seeds are sown broadcast. Perhaps the best statistical indicator of the state of agricultural practices is the extent of fertilization and the use of chemicals for controlling insects and other pests. Table 1.20, shows that such aids to agriculture are comparatively little used in Pakistan; Egypt uses a hundred times more fertilizer per acre than does Pakistan; Japan more than two hundred times as much. Table 2.4.1 gives some of the details underlying Table 1.20; it shows that of all the major crops on which West Pakistan depends, fertilizers are used to a significant extent only for sugarcane.
6,5




Chapter 1
The hope of Pakistani agriculture lies in overcoming these impediments to the greatest extent possible. Increased encouragement of family planning is important to prevent the pressure of population on the land from becoming markedly worse. A program is now under way, and has been for some years, to consolidate land holdings and to break up large estates. In the nature of the case, progress must be heart-breakingly slow; every parcel of land transferred requires long negotiations and sometimes litigation. The total natural inflow of water cannot be increased, but its utilization can be made greatly more efficient. The course of salination and waterlogging can be arrested and land can be reclaimed. Agricultural practices can be modernized and the people's nutrition can be improved. These are the tasks that must be shouldered if farming in West Pakistan is to be made productive.
66




TABLE 1.1.1
Estimated Potential Evapotranspiration
and Estimated Effective Precipitation
for Representative Stations in West Pakistan (by Rabi and Kharif Seasons)
Potential Evapotranspiration Effective Precipitation
Station (inches) (inches)
Rabi Kharif Rabi Kharif
Lahore 13.5 40.8 1.8 8.4
Rawalpindi 11.1 36.5 4.0 14.0
Multan 15.0 44.6 <1 <3
Sialkot 12.5 40.2 3.3 12. 0
Hyderabad 22.3 48.1 0 2.8
Bahawalpur 16.2 45.8 <1 <3
Khanpur 18.7 50.0 <1 < 3
(Rahimyar Khan)
Source: Appendix A. 1.
67




TABLE 1.1.2
Approximate Value of Crops Destroyed by Floods 1948-19601/
District Total Value Destroyed
1948-1960
Rs. 10b
Potwar Upland
Jhelumn 1.38 )
Mianwali .11 )
1.49
Campbell Pur -- )
Attock -- )
Thal Doab
Muzaffargarh 13.62
Chaj Doab
Gujrat 3.03 ) 36.32
Shahpur/Sargodha 33.29 )
Rechna Doab
Sialkot 30.75 )
Gujranwala 13.74 )
Lyallpur 29.20 ) 160.67
Jhang 31.52 )
Sheikhupura 55.46 )
Bari Doab
Lahore 31.41 )
Montgomery 23.83 ) 91.73
Multan 36.49 )
Bahawalpur
Bahawalpur 2.46 )
Bahawal Nagar 8.96 ) 11.52
Rahimyar Khan 10 )
D. G. Khan 9.19
D. I. Khan 4.47
Total: Rs329.01 x 106
Total computed for floods occurring in the years 1948, 1950, 1954, 1955, 1956, 1957, 1958, 1959, and 1960, from Annual Report of West Pakistan Flood Commission year 1958-59, West Pakistan Flood Commission Publication No. 1.
68




Table 1.2
River Waters and their Uses in the Indus Plain
River Average Average annual canal Net Outflow
and annual inflow withdrawals 1952-57(2) river to
location 1921-46 losses sea
of millions of Canal millions of millions of
gauging acre feet system acre feet acre feet
station per year (1) per year per year
Kharif Rabi
Indus 76.4 13.0 Thal 2.8
at Kalabagh Taunsa 2.5
Gudu 5.2
Sukkur 21.2
Kotri (Ghulam
Mohammed) 4.0
35.7 10.0
Jhelum 18.1 4.5 Upper Jhelum 4.2
at Mangla Lower Jhelum 2.7
6.9
Chenab 19.8 3.7 Upper Chenab 2.1
at Marala Lower Chenab 5.8
7.9
Chenab Trimmu (Haveli
plus Jhelum and Rangpur) 3.3
3.3 1.5
Ravi 5.2 1.2 Central Bari Doab 1.3
at Madhopur Lower Bari Doab 3.9
5.1
Sutlej plus Beas 22.0 4.3 Dipalpur 1.6
at Rupar and Mandi Suleimanke 5.6
Islam 3.3
Panjnad 4.2
14.7 2.0
Total -West Pakistan 73.6
Ravi, Sutlej and
Beas Diversions in India 10.0 1.5
Grand Total 141.5 26.7 83.6 15.0 68.6
(1) Source: Statement of Indus Basin Working Party.
(2) From data kindly supplied to us by Harza Engineering International, and
from other sources.
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Table 1.3
Past and Projected Populations of West Pakistan
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)
Population (Millions of Persons) Annual Increases in %
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Year Maximum Probable Minimum Maximum Probable Minimum
1931 23.8
1.4
1941 27.4
2.1(a)
1951 33.8
1961 42.9
1 6 292.5 2.3 2.1
1971 55.2 53.9 52.6
2.7 2.2 1.7
1981 72.5 67.4 62.2 2.7 2.2 1.7
1986 83.5 78.3 67.4
Sources:
Census figures from Population Census of Pakistan Bulletin 2. 1961. Figures for
i951 and 1961 are probably low by one to two million people (see text). Census figures for 1931 and 1941 are given as adjusted by United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs to account for an undercount of 1% in 1931 and an
overcount of 3% in 1941. The increase of 6.4 million between 1941 and 1951
includes a-net immigration of 1.7 million persons. Between 1951 and 1961 the net immigration was probably 0.8 million and the count in the Western Tribal Areas was
probably more complete in 1961 than in 1951. The annual rate of increase in percent due to excess of births over deaths was probably 1.6% in 1941-51 and less than 2.2
in 1951-61. At present, net immigration is small.
Projections based on United Nations estimates of present and projected fertility and mortality rates. From Future Population Estimates by Sex and Age; Report IV; The Population of Asia and the Far East. 1950-1980; United Nations, Department of
Economic and Social Affairs; New York; 1959.
Cols. (2) and (6) Annual birth rates estimated at 44 per thousand in 1953-58 and 41 per thousand in 1978-83; death rates estimated at 23 per thousand in 1953-58 and 13 in 1978-83.
Colo. (3) and (7) Estimated birth rates are 44 per thousand in 1953-58 and 34 in 1978-83. Estimated death rates are 23 per thousand in 1953-58 and 12 in 1978-83.
Cols. (4) and (8) Estimated birth rates are 44 per thousand in 1953-58 and 28 in 1978-83. Estimated death rates are 23 per thousand in 1953-58 and 12 in 1978-83.
(a) Includes 0.5 annual increase due to immigration.
(b) Includes 0.2 annual increase due to immigration.
70




Table 1.4
Population by Districts and Regions in West Pakistan 1949-59 Density
Total Average of
Population Urban Rural Gross Rural
Thousands Ten Popu- Popu- Area Population
of Year lation lation Sown Persons
Persons Increase Thousands % 106 per Sown
District or Region 1961 1951 % of Persons Rural Acres Acre
Canal Irrigated Dists.
of Former Punjab
Gujranwala 1,292 1,047 23.4 345 947 73.3 1.07 .89
Jhang 1,079 877 22.9 173 906 84.0 1.02 .89
Lahore 2,480 1,895 31.0 1,465 1,015 40.8 0.93 1.09
Lyallpur 2,684 ,2,153 24.9 573 2,111 78.7 1.86 1.13
Montgomery 2,134 1,816 17.4 239 1,895 88.8 2.02 .94
Multan 2,702 2,108 28.1 577 2,125 78.7 2.41 .88
Muzaffargarh 990 751 31.7 73 915 92.6 0.80 1.15
Shahpur 1,468 1,163 26.7 284 1,183 80.7 1.73 .69
Sheikhupura 1,081 923 17.2 137 944 87.3 1.00 .94
Total 15,910 12,733 25.0 3,866 12,041 75.7. 12.84 .94
Districts or Regions
with Minor Canal Irrig.
in Former Punjab
and NWFP
Campbellpur (Attock) 767 723 6.1 78 689 89.8 1.05 .66
D. G. Khan (Cult. Area) 725 570 27.2 97 627 86.7 0.69 .91
D. I. Khan (Cult. Area) 383 339 13.1 68 314 82.3 0.45 .70
Gujrat 1,326 1,159 14.3 168 1,158 87.3 1.11 1.04
Jhelum 749 682 9.8 106 644 85.9 0.70 .92
Mianwali 747 550 36.0 142 605 81.0 1.20 .51
Pawalpindi 1,137 876 29.8 407 730 64.2 0.61 1.20
Sialkot 1,596 1,474 8.1 255 1,342 84.0 1.10 1.22
Total 7,430 6,373 16.6 1,321 6,.109 82.2 6.90 .89
Former Bahawalpur
Bahawalpur 736 528 39.4 138 597 81.3 0.70 .85
Bahawalnagar 823 630 30.8 105 718 87.3 1.14 .63
Rahimyar Khan 1,016 665 52.9 114 902 88.8 1.11 .81
Total 2,574 1,823 41.2 35,7 2,217 86.1 2.95 .75
Former Sind
Khairpur Division 3,134 2,472 26.8 505 2,629 83.9 3.16 .83
Hyderabad Division 3,291 2,539 29.6 754 2,537 77.1 3.76 .69
Total 6,425 5,011 28.2 1,259 5,166 80.4 6.92 .75
Karachi 2,135 1,202 77.8 1,916 .. 219 10.2
Other Areas 8,408 6,578 27.8 936 7,473 88.9
Compiled from data given in' Population Census of Pakistan, Census Bulletin, No. 2 Office of the Census Commissioner, Mi istry of Home Affairs, Government o Pakistan, Karachi, November 1961; and from "Statistics 4f West Pakistan, Agricultural Data"IBureau of Statistics, Government of West Pakistan Lahore, December 1960.
71




Table 1.5
Urban Population of West Pakistan, 1951 and 1961
Total
Population
Number (Thousands
of of Ten Percent of
Cities Persons) Year Total Population
or Increase of
Population Class Towns 1961 1951 (Percent) West Pakistan,1961
Greater than 1,000,000 2 3,209 1,918 67.3 7.48
100,000 to 500,000 10 2,476 1,518 63.1 5.77
50,000 to 100,000 10 702 502 39.9 1.64
25,000 to 50,000 30 1,100 814 35.2 2.57
15,000 to 25,000 35 646 408 58.2 1.51
Less than 15,000 230 1.521 859 77.1 3.55
TOTALS 317 9,655 6,019 60.4 22.52
Compiled from data given in Population Census of Pakistan Census Bulletin No. 2, Office of the Census Commissioner, Ministry of Home Affairs, Government of Pakistan, Karachi, November 1961.
72




Table 1.5.1
Approximate Average Value of Pakistan Exports and Imports, 1959-61
Millions of dollars
West Pakistan East Pakistan Total
Total foreign exports 128 243 371
Foreign agricultural exports 74 173 247
Foreign exports of jute and cotton manufactured products 34 58 92
Agricultural exports plus exports
of jute and cotton manufactured
products 108 231 339
Other foreign exports 20 12 32
Total. imports 450 295 745
Foreign imports 385 155 540
Imports from other Wing 65 140 205
Total agricultural imports 140 105 245
Foreign agricultural imports# 110 50 160
Agricultural imports from other Wing 30 55 85
Imports of jute and cotton
manufactured products from other
Wing 15 55 70
#-About 60 percent through U.S. Government in accordance with U.S. Public Law 480.
Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Foreign Agricultural Service
(Kindly supplied us by Mr. Stuart Lerner); also in part from Foreign Trade Studies of Pakistan, Government of Pakistan,
Central Statistical Office, 1960.
73




Table 1.6
Average Agricultural Production in West Pakistan by Region
Ten years from 1949-50 to 1958-59
Region Gross Area Sown Cultivated Area Yield(1) Value Value/acre
106 acres 106 acres 106 tons 106 Rs Rupees
Canal-irrigated Districts(Z)
of Former Punjab 12.85 12.97 3.88 1,798 140
Dist icts with minor or
n anal irrigation in
Former Punjab
and adjoining area 6.89 7.63 1.54 609 88
Total, Former Punjab
and adjoining area 19.74 20.60 5.42 2,406 122
Former Bahawalpur(4) 2.94 2.96 .73 367 125
Former Sind( 5) 6.92 11.07(7) 1.76 817 118
Other areas(6) 2.90 3.82(7) .93 408 141
Total 32.50 38.45 8.84 3,999 123
(1) Less Fodder.
(2) Districts of Gujranwala, Jhang, Lahore, Lyallpur, Montgomery, Multan, Muzaffargarh,
Shahpur, and Sheikhupura.
(3) Districts of Attock, D. G. Khan, D. I. Khan, Gujrat, Jhelum, Mianwali, Rawalpindi,
and Sialkot.
(4) Districts of Bahawalnagar, Bahawalpur, and Rahimyar Khan.
(5) Districts of Dadu, Hyderabad, Jacobabad, Khairpur, Larkana, Nawabshah Sanghar,
Sukkur, Tharparkar, and Thatta. In other tables we have combined Sind data by the
Divisions of Khairpur and Hyderabad, which between them contain all the above District
(6) Districts of Bannu, Chagai, Hazara, Kalat, Kharan, Kohat, Lasbela, Loralai, Mardan,
Peshawar, Quetta, Sibi, and Zhob, and tribal areas.
(7) Data for 1957-58.
Compiled from data given in Statistics of West Pakistan, Agricultural Data by Division and District, 1947-48 through 1958-59.
74




Table 1.7
Average Agricultural Production in est Pakistan
by Crops
Ten years, fram 1949-50 to 1958-59
Crop goss area son(1) Tigld(1) Va ue(2) yield(1) Value(2) Calacies(3) per
10* acres % 10 tons 10 as % per acre per acre acre per day
lbs. s
Food Grains
Rice (cleaned) 2.42 7.4 .82 251 6.3 760 103 3,400
Wheat 10.78 33.2 3.47 1,115 27.9 720 103 3,200
Barley 0.47 1.4 .13 31 0.8 600 65 2,500
Jowar (sorghum) 1.24 3.8 .25 69 1.7 445 55 1,900
Bajra (millet) 2.18 6.7 .34 101 2.5 345 46 1,500
Maize (corn) 1.04 3.2 .42 125 3.1 j89 121 3,900
Total Food Grains 18.14 55.7 5.42 1,692 42.3 670 93
Other Food Crops
Gram (chick peas) 2.76 8.5 .60 178 4.5 485 64 2,200
Other pulses (legumes) 1.15 3.5 (.20) (58) (1.4) (380) (50) 1,700
Oil seeds 1.29 4.0 .20 128 3.2 340 99 1,300
Cotton seed same as cotton .55 407 10.2 365 121 800
Cane sugar (raw sugar) 0.74 2.3 .854 384 9.6 2,580 522 9,900
Fruits 0.25(4) 0.8 .72(4) 282 7.1 6,340 .,114 3,100
Vegetables and other crops 0.84 2.6 (167) 4.2 (200) 1,000
Fibers
Cotton 3.34 10.3 .28 204 5.0 185 61
Fodder 3.93 12.1 (28.88) (393) 9.8 (16,450) (100) 2,700(6)
Tobacco 0.07 0.2 .04 106 2.7 1,360 1,452
Total 32.51 100.0 8.84(5)3,999 100 123




Table 1.7 (continued)
Average Agricultural Production in West Pakistan by Crops
Ten years, from 1949-50 to 1958-59
(1) Compiled from data given in Statistics of West Pakistan. Agricultural Data by Division and District,
1947-48 through 1958-59, Bureau of Statistics, Government of West Pakistan, December 1960.
(2) In computing values in rupees, the prices for major crops, except oil seeds, were taken as the average for 1955-56 through 1958-59 in the sixteen Districts of the Former Punjab, from "Acreage, Production, and
Prices of Major Agricultural Crops of West Pakistan (Punjab) 1931-59," by Abdur Rab; Institute of Developmental Economics, Karachi, June 1961. The average price of oil seeds given by Rab is too high; we have assumed Rs 24
per maund. Values for fruits, vegetables, and other crops, and fodder are our own estimates, based on published
and unpublished information.
(3) For energy values of different food crops, see Table 1.14.
(4) Estimates of gross sown area and yield of fruits are based on information in "Fruit Culture and Fruit
Preservation," by Saeed Ahmed Fifty Years of hAicultural Education and Research, Department of Agriculture,
-3 West Pakistan, 1960.
(5) Less fodder.
(6) As edible animal product, assuming 10%. conversion efficiency of plant food by livestock.
Values in parentheses are our estimates.




Table 1.8
Average Agricultural Production in
Canal-irrigated but not very Waterlogged and Saline Districts
in the Former Punjab(l)
Ten Years, from 1949-50 to 1958-59
Crop gross area sown Yield Value Yield Value
10 acres % 106 tons 106 Rs 7. per acre per acre
lbs. Rs
Food Grains
Rice (cleaned) .21 2.4 .06 20 1.5 685 93
Wheat 2.99 33.4 1.29 414 31.4 970 139
Barley .07 0.8 .02 6 0.4 705 76
Jowar (sorghum) .10 1.1 .02 6 0.5 500 62
Bajra (millet) .33 3.7 .07 22 1.7 485 65
Maize (corn) .24 2.6 .10 30 2.3 950 128
I Total Food Grains 3.94 44.0 1.56 498 37.8 895 126
-I Other Food Crops
Gram (chick peas) .82 9.2 .21 62 4.7 570 75
Other pulses (legumes) .20 2.2 (.03) (9) 0.7 (335) (45)
Oil seeds .26 3.0 .05 33 2.5 435 127
Cotton seed same as cotton .23 170 12.9 370 123
Cane sugar (raw sugar) .29 3.2 .36 161 12.3 2,745 554
Fruits .07 0.8 (.20) (67) (5.1) (6,590) (1,000)
Vegetables and other crops .22 2.4 (.30) (44) 3.3 (3,000) (200)
Fibers
Cotton 1.39 15.5 .11 85 6.5 185 61
Fodder 1.74 19.5 (12.81) (174) 13.2 (16,460) (100)
Tobacco .02 0.2 .01 13 1.0 645 750
Total 8.95 100 3.07(2) 1,316 100 147
Total, less
fodder, fruits, vegetables
and other 6.92 77.3 1,031 78.5 149
Canal Irrigated Area 8,36 93.4
(1) Districts of Lahore, Lyallpur, Montgomery, ultan, and Shahpur.
(2) Less fodder.
For source of data see Table 1.7.
Figures in parentheses are our own estimates.




Table 1.9
Average Agricultural Production in
Canal-irrigated but Waterlogged and/or Saline
Districts in the Former Punjab(l
Ten years, from 1949-50 to 1958-59
Crop %oss area sown Yigld Value Yield Value
10 acres % 10 tons 106 Rs per acre per acre
lbs. Rs
Food Grains
Rice (cleaned) .47 12.1 .18 55 11.4 865 118
Wheat 1.52 39.0 .55 175 36.4 805 115
Barley .06 1.7 .02 4 0.9 620 67
Jowar (sorghum) .06 1.5 .01 4 0.8 510 64
Baira (millet) .14 3.5 .03 9 1.9 460 62
Maize (corn) .08 2.0 .03 9 1.8 825 111
Total Food Grains 2.33 59.8 .82 256 53.2 785 110
Other Food Crops
Gram (chick peas) .25 6.5 .06 18 3.8 550 73
Other pulses (legumes) .09 2.3 (.01) (4) 0.8 (335) (45)
Oil seeds .08 2.0 .01 7 1.5 330 98
Cotton seed same as cotton .04 28 5.8 310 105
Cane sugar (raw sugar) .11 2.8 .11 51 10.6 2,365 475
Fruits .01 0.3 .04 (13) 2.7 (6,590) (1,000)
Vegetables and other crops .08 2.1 (16) 3.3 (200)
Fibers
Cotton .27 6.9 .02 14 2.9 155 50
Fodder .67 17.1 (4.89) (67) 13.9 (16,460) (100
Tobacco .01 0.2 4. 005 7 1.5 625 7N
Total 3.90 100 1.11(2) 481 100 124
Total, less
fodder, fruits, vegetables,
and other 3.14 80.5 389 80.2 124
Canal Irrigated Area 2.80 71.9
(1) Districts of Gujranwala, Jhang, Muzaffargarh, and Sheikhupura.
(2) Less fodder.
For source of data see Table 1.7.
FLgures in parentheses are our own estimates.




Table 1.10.1
Average Agricultural Production in
Districts with Partial Canal Trrigation
in the Former Punjab 1j
Ten years, frame 1949-50 to 1958-59
Crop G~oss area sown Yield Value Yield Value
100 acres % 100 tons 106 Rs per acre per acre
lbs. Rs
Food Grains
Rice (cleaned) .10 5.5 .02 8 4.8 585 71
Wheat .65 36.3 .20 64 38.6" 690 99
Barley .02 1.2 .01 1 0.6 585 63
Jowar (sorghum) .20 11.3 .03 10 6.0 385 48
Bajra (millet) .22 12.1 .04 11 6.6 375 50
Maize (corn) .02 1.1 .01 2 1.2 800 108
Total Food Grains 1.21 67.5 .31 96 57.8 570 79
Other Food Crops
Gram (chick peas) .12 6.6 .02 7 4.2 455 60
Other pulses (legumes) .09 4.8 (.01) (4; 2.4 (335) (45)
Oil seeds .04 2.5 < 005 3 1.8 230 67
Cotton seed same as cotton .01 10 6.0 335 110
Cane sugar (raw sugar) .02 1.3 .03 12 7.2 2,500 505
Fruits 0 0 0 0 -Vegetables and other crops .04 2.4 (9) 5.3 (200)
Fibers
Cotton .09 5.0 .01 5 3.0 165 55
Fodder .18 9.7 (1.29) (17) 10.5 (16,460) (100)
Tobacco e 005 0.2 1.005 3 1.8 615 710
Total 1.80 100 O.40(2) 166 100 92
Total, less
fodder, fruits, vegetables,
and other 1.58 87.9 140 84.4 89
Canal Irrigated Area .81 44.9
(1) Districts of D. G. Khan and Gujrat.
(2) Less fodder.
For source of data, see Table 1.7.
Figures in parentheses are our own estimates.




Full Text

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Chapter 2 there is the matter of obtaining similar data for the application of irrigation water, and the need for selecting the best available crop varieties and the best available means of pest control. Finally, there are long-term research problems, such as the development of new practices, crop varieties, and animal breeds, which deserve attention, especially as the pattern of agriculture changes with time. At best, a report such as the present one can only point the way for agricultural development. In the long run, the eventual attainment of West Pakistan's full agricultural potential will depend largely upon the development of a highly capable, well-trained cadre of professional agriculturists who, through research, creativeness, and ingenuity, can devise detailed methods for maximizing utilization of the land and water resources, and who have the ability to extend these methods to the farmers. This will require the upgrading of agriculture as a profession, so as to attract promising young people, and the provision of more funds for salaries, and research and education facilities. Certainly a country so dependent upon agriculture can ill afford not to spend a considerable fraction of its budget on agricultural research and education. Further Agricultural Diversification The per capita consumption of protein in West Pakistan is extremely low. Increasing the production of livestock, poultry and fresh-water fish are possible ways of overcoming the deficiency in animal proteins. Greater production of fruits and vegetables can also aid in improving diets and in increasing farm income. Changes in the agricultural production pattern along the above lines will require innovation and reorganization at the farm level. For example, a prerequisite to increased poultry production will be better disease control, while greater livestock production will require better breeding and increased forage and feedgrain output. Since further diversification involves costs as well as benefits to the farmer (and nation), a more thorough analysis of this subject is given in Chapter 6. 110



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THIE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON March 25, 1964 Dear Mr. President: Here is the report on "Land and Water Development in the Indus Plain."1 It was prepared by the expert panel appointed by President Kennedy. This panel consisted of specialists in agriculture, hydrology, engineering, and the economic and social sciences. It was assembled by Dr. Jerome B. Widsner, then Special Assistant to the President for Science and Technology, and was given support by Secretary of the Interior Stewart Udall. The Chairman of the Panel, and its directing spirit, has been Dr. Roger Revelle, then Science Advisor to Mr. Udall, and now University Dean of Research at the University of California. We are much indebted to Dr. Revelle and the devoted members of his panel who assisted him. In their work, they became warm and enthusiastic friends of Pakistan. I hope the data and conclusions contained in this report will be of practical help to you. I know you have difficult decisions to make in overcoming waterlogging and excessive salinity in the Indus Plain. You are determined to benefit your people through the maximum use of your land and water resources. If this report is valuable to you, it would please me greatly. This report is a good example of how the sharing of scientific and technical knowledge can contribute to the welfare of our people and to the cause of peace and understanding. Our people learned much from your people in working on this challenging project. I hope the future will draw us closer together, as together we solve common problems. Sincerely, His Excellency Mohammed Ayub Khan President of Pakistan Rawalpindi



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Chapter 7 acre which is about the same as that determined in the Water Budget. Under the assumption that the steady flow rate of each well equals recharge rate of 0.72 7're 2 cubic feet per year, the skimming well equation yielded values of re that indicate the proper spacing of wells in the field. The first twelve cases pertain to soils with isotropic permeability, and the last twelve to anisotropic soils having a ratio of vertical to horizontal permeability of 0.10. The calculated reut~eeobtained by replacing m in the last factor of the equation, ( rw/ 2 crxm) by J 1F0 m, which had the effect of reducing the yield of the well. This, however, is only one effect of anisotropy -there are others that are favorable. The adjustment made in the last twelve computations takes into account the fact that the streamlines in an anisotropic soil of this type tend to be flatter and more nearly radial so that fresh water from the deeper layers is not drawn into the well to the extent that occurs in an Sisotropic soil. This causes the effective yield to be smaller particularly when a is small. The principal compensating factors of anisotropy that are favorable that were not taken into account in the calculations, are (1) the volume of the salt cone is smaller ceteris paribus; and (2) the velocity of fresh water along the interface is smaller, so that the amount of mixing of salt and fresh water is reduced and water of better quality is pumped. As the degree of anisotropy, however, is difficult to determine and highly variable it cannot be counted to other than a safety factor. The data of Table 7.2 indicate that skimming wells for the recovery of recharge in the peripheral zones of the mined project areas will have to be small, shallow and closely spaced. It is evident from the analysis that there is a sharp upper limit to the amount of water that can be pumped without entrainment of salt water. Moreover for any given depth of the fresh water layer the yield of a skimming is a sensitive function of the degree of penetration -that is there is a rapid fall -off in production above and below the optimal distance of penetration. Finally the formulation shows that when the difference in densities of the two, layers is small the maximum yield of fresh water is small. However, in this latter situation the quality impairment associated with over -pumping is less severe. .Computations 8 to 12 and 20 to 24 are of particular interest from the practical viewpoint. They indicate that a significant increase in skimming yield (with concomitant reduction in the total number of wells) can be ob tained in shallow wells by increasing the radius of the well. Rate of Increase of Ground Water Salinity When pumping and evaporation of water from the aquifer lasts for any substantial length of time, the crucial question arises of how the salt con centration of the blended tubewell water and canal water applied to crops 301



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Chapter 7 For vertical flow, a unit hydraulic gradient obtains. Thus, the flow rate decreases gradually to a constant value which is main-9 tained until the formation of a ground water mound beneath the canal reduces the hydraulic gradient and the velocity still further. This may occur from a few days to a few weeks after water enters the canal, depending upon the soil permeability and upon the depth to the water table. (c) Hydraulic gradient of the water surface: When the water table is at a considerable depth, water from the irrigation system moves directly downward under the action of gravity. As the Water table rises, the saturated zone intersects the bottom of the canal at a relatively small angle, and a local slope away from the canal becomes superimposed on the regional slope in the general direction of movement of the underground water. At present, these slopes away from the canals and smaller channels are probably nearly at a minimum, which is just sufficient to move water from the line of the canal to the areas where it is evaporated or evapotranspired. Construction of barrages raised the level of river waters and increased the underground hydraulic gradients normal to the river channels, thereby increasing both the contributions of the river to the water table and the rate of evapotranspiration by widening the zone in which this could occur. 3. The amount of leakage in an irrigation system depends, in part, on the proportion of the time during which the canals are filled; hence, contributions to the water table from perennial canals are greater than from non-perennial and inundation canals. Over the past fifty years, inundation canals have gradually been converted to perennial canals by the construction of barrages. The increased diversions and the lengthening of the time in which the canals were filled undoubtedly increased canal seepage and accelerated the ris( of the water table. To summarize, when the irrigation system began operating, the water table was deep and evaporation from the water table was small; leakage rates from the canals were high, and hydraulic gradients away from the canals were at a maximum. Today, the water table is everywhere much closer to the surface, seepage rates from the system are low, gradients are at a minimum, and capillary movement of water in an upward direction from the water table is an important factor of the salination process. 264



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Summary rising at about 2 percent. Unless the rate of rise in production can be increased, food imports into West Pakistan alone should be over 3 million tons by 1970, roughly 1.5 times the present imports for the entire country. These dietary deficiencies reflect the fact that West Pakistan, as the rest of the Indian sub-continentJ has one of the lowest agricultural yields of all countries in which agriculture is practiced on a large scale. This is an especially disastrous situation in a region where 77 percent of the population.. lives 6fi-the land, and whose agriculture, such as it is, produces more than half of the people's income directly, and is the indirect source of most of the rest. So long as its agriculture remains at or below the subsistence level, Pakistan is condemned to increasing poverty. Although the country aspires to an industrial awakening, the expansion of industrial and commercial enterprises will be slowed by increasing demands for food, and by the lack of purchasing power in the agricultural sector for locally produced goods. Agriculture is the basis of the entire economy, and its fate is the fate of the entire country. The problem of agriculture in West Pakistan is both a physical and a human one. It is a problem of land, of water, and of people, and of the interactions among them. One of its aspects is the waterlogging and salt accumulation in the soil, caused by poor drainage in the vast, nearly flat plain, that are slowly destroying the fertility of much of the irrigated land. The area of canal irrigated and cultivated land already seriously damaged by waterlogging and salinity is close to 5 million acres, or about 18 percent of the gross sown area in the Indus Plain. Severe salinity damage is increasing at a rate of from 0.2 to 0.4 percent of the irrigated area per year. We have, however, found no reason to believe this rate is accelerating. (See Chapter 1). Waterlogging and salt accumulation are only one of the problems besetting agriculture in the Plain. The scanty yields that hold the countryside.in poverty are not the consequence of any single deficiency. Even if all the saline land could be reclaimed, and future alienation stopped, the resulting increase in agricultural production would fall far short of present and future needs. Among the other deficiencies are: 1. Shortage of irrigation water. Because of conveyance and other losses, only 34 to 41 million acre feet of canal water are available each year for consumptive use by crops in the 23 million acres of irrigated land. Although crops can be grown throughout the year, and both a winter and a summer growing season are traditional, the amount of water is sufficient to irrigate 2



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Chapter 5 The phrase "potential yield" in the previous paragraph must not be misconstrued: it means merely the yield that would be obtained with fully adequate supplies of water, all other cropping practices remaining the same. The finding that actual yields are almost as great as potential does not imply that the supplies of irrigation water in the Punjab are adequate. It indicates mostly that farmers have responded to the chronic shortage of water by means other than starving the crops planted. Specifically, they have responded by restricting the area sown, particularly in Rabi, by not using water to wash down accumulating salts, and by refraining from profitable, water demanding, practices like fertilization. Thus the water shortage is very costly in terms of crop output and soil condition, though not in terms of yields per acre on lands sown and cropped in accordance with current practices. A more quantitative appreciation of the effects of increasing the water supply can be obtained by comparing current and potential patterns of land and water use in an area of roughly the size of, one of the project areas that we contemplate. To this end, table 5.5 shows current pattern of land and water use, together with some economic results, in a million acre tract typifying conditions that obtain in the districts served by the Lower Chenab Canal. Of the gross geographic extent of a million acres, 915,000 acres are culturable and 730,000 acres are sown in a typical crop year. The cropped acreage is used with an intensity of 118 percent. The gross value of output, valued at 1957-58 prices, is Rs. 15.2 crore: the amount of irrigation water applied (i.e. excluding rainfall) is just about a million acre-feet. If the same land-use pattern is retained but the irrigation regime is changed to provide the full evapotranspiration requirements to the crops and, in addition, to meet the leaching requirement to prevent the accumulation of salts the irrigation requirement would be increased to 1.4 million acre-feet and the gross value of output to Rs. 16 crore, i.e., scarcely at all. The principal gain resulting from the additional 400,000 acre-feet of water would therefore be the improvement and-maintenance of soil condition. These calculations are displayed in Table 5.6. The tubewell, installations contemplated will actually produce far more than 400,000 acre-feet of water per year in a million acre tract. In the first year of operation of SCARP ONE, six of the subareas had substantially their full comiplement of wells installed and in commission. These 1,014 wells covered a gross geographic area of 616,000 acres and provided a flow of 1,526,000 acre-feet of water (see Table 7.3). Thus, on the average,'each well covered a gross area of 608 acres and provided 1, 500 acre-feet of water. Taking these results as typical, a million acre tract would be served by 1, 650 tubewells providing upwards of 2 million acre-feet of water. 190



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Chapter 3 The entire development could be spresd over more than a generation. Projected figures for the cumulative increases in production (as percent of the total agricultural production of West Pakistan) based upon starting one project per year, are shown in Figure 3. 1,. together with curves of estimated population growth for the Province, using the maximum and minimum rates projected by the United Nations (see Table 1. 3). With the cumulative increases in productivity per year, a surplus over present production per capita should begin in seven to nine years, even without allowing for the present productivity increase of about two percent per year for the Province as a whole. Our basic conclusion is, therefore, that, by concentrating investment_ and effort on one project area after another over a period of 2 to 3 decades untilfinally the entire Indus Plain is covered, a rate of increase of agricultural production can be established and sustained that will be greater than the rate of increase in the total population of West Pakistan. After examination of the past record and consideration of other alternatives, we believe this is the only valid approach to the chief problem of West Pakistan agriculture, which is to develop the vast resources of land, water, and natural gas in the Indus Plain, and to improve the economic condition of its farming population of 23 million people. Both ade quate capital and intelligent use of resources are vitally necessary. Without both of these, the present situation of widespread poverty, malnutrition, and misery can only continue to worsen. We do not advocate a lessening of present agricultural development efforts in the Potwar Uplands and other regions outside the Indus Plain, or a decrease in present widespread attempts to gain some improvement thoughout the Plain itself. But we urge a strengthened effort, based on an integration of all factors of production, concentration on a series of project areas in timed sequence, and attainment of initial momentum in improvement through construction of tube wells and provision of a greatly increased supply of fertilizer. The rate of development we have suggested should be regarded as a minimum one. After experience has been gained with the first few projects, it may be possible to proceed more rapidly with the others, and thereby to lay an earlier base of farm purchasing power for industrial development. Hopeful Factors In spite of the stagnant character of agricultural production, there are many hopeful factors in the present situation. Although portions of the salinated soils have incurred severe sodium damage which has reduced their permeability, most of the soils and subsoils are relatively permeable. Accumulated salts can 132



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United States Foreign Agricultural Service, Food balances in foreign countries, Part 2. Estimates for 12 countries in the Far East: Washington, 14 p. (FAS-M-101) 1960. Part 3. Estimates for 20 republics of Latin America: Washington, 22 p., (FAS-M-104) 1960. Part 4. Estimates for 28 countries of Africa and western Asia: Washington, 31 p. (FAS-M-108) 1961. -----The world food deficit, a first approximation: Washington, U.S. Govt. Print. Office, 24 p., 1961. United States Geological Survey, Hydrologic regimen in the Punjab region, West Pakistan: p. A-69, Mechanics of flow through porous media: p; A-100, Geological Survey Research, Professional Paper 450-A, 1962. United States International Cooperation Administration, Administration Division, Technical Resources Branch, Pakistan, selected bibliography: Washington, 4 p., 1959. United States International Cooperation Administration, Public Administration Division, Review of mutual cooperation in public administration for 1958: Washington, 110 p., 1958. United States Operations Mission to Pakistan, Data on rabi and kharif, Pakistan, acreages of major crops, rainfall and irrigation for various periods from 1947 -1960: Lahore, Pakistan, 10 p., 1962. -----Technical review of salinity control and reclamation project number two (Chaj Doab) West Pakistan Water and Power Development Authority -Development loan fund application: Karachi, 11 p., 1961. United States Regional Salinity Laboratory, Riverside, California, Diagnosis and improvement of saline and alkali soils: Washington, U.S. Govt. Print. Off., 160 p., (U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Agriculture Handbook no. 60) 1954. Van Bavel, C. H. M., Drought and water surplus in agricultural soils of the lower Mississippi Valley area: Washington, U.S. Govt. Print. Off., 93 p. (U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Technical Bulletin no. 1209) 1959. --Lysimetric measurements of evapotranspiration rates in the eastern United States: Soil Science Society of America, Proceedings, 25 (2), p. 138-141, March-April, 1961. --Water deficits and irrigation requirements in the southern United States: Journal of Geophysical Research, 64 (10), p. 1597-1604, October, 1959. 402



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Chapter 7 G. Summary: water supply for Former Sind. On the basis of present information,, the total area that can be irrigated with A 's of 3.5 to 4.0 ft/year after tubewell installation and modification of the canal delivery system lies between 8 and 11 million acres. Because of high evapotranspiration and low rainfall., annual depths of irrigation of 3.5 to 4.0 feet would not allow as intensive double cropping as would be possible in the Former P unj ab. 11. The Second Level of Development Additional water supply after the first level of development may be had by providing more storage for regulation and by managing water flow more efficiently to reduce non-beneficial evapotranspiration and other losses. It is not possible at present to delimit precisely the ultimate magnitude of water supply that can be developed on the Indus Plain. The uncertainly derives from two sources. In the first place the costs of developing surface storage at possible sites in the upper basin are not accurately known. -Present estimates show that unit costs are high and that they vary considerably from site to site. Moreover, 'estimates of costs from different surveys made at the same site vary considerably. Also, there is the difficulty of extrapolating from present construction costs to predict future costs in a developing country. In the second place the magnitude of the ultimate water supply will depend markedly upon future technological innovations. Among these may be listed: (1) more efficient methods of increasing ground water recharge so as to exploit more completely the reservoir capacity of the enormous aquifer in the northern plain area as a means of seasonal and year-to-year regulation of the irrigation water supply; (2) new methods (including mono -layer chemicals) for reduction of non -beneficial evapotranspiration and for de creasing runoff coefficients of monsoon rainfall; (3) inexpensive methods of reducing and controlling seepage losses from canal distribution systems; (4) economical methods -of desalination of brackish waters; and (5) agricul tural research on effective methods of utilizing saline waters having salt concentrations as much as 5,000 milligrams per liter. The following predications for the water budget at the seconlevel of development are presented not as an accurate projection but rather as a discussion of the factors involved in such a projection. Nevertheless, it is evident that even with favorable construction costs of surface reservoirs and with substantial progress in the technology of water management, the total additional, water will only amount to a small increase above that achieved at the first level of development. A. Total average annual flow available from the three western rivers with 2 maf/yr being diverted to Kashmir, 136 maf/yr. 285



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Appendix A. 6 42. What are the sources of emergency feeds in Pakistan? 43. What human skills are required for an intergrated pattern of manage Iment combining forage and feed crops in the rabi and kharif seasons? 44. What are the optimum methods of plot lay-out, water control, and grazing control? 45. What is the opportunity-cost of using land, labor and water resources for the production of livestock? 46. What special management skills are required during lambing and calving periods, during breeding seasons, and during preparation for market? 47. What limitations do government slaughter regulations impose on commercial livestock operations?



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Chapter 1 increase meat or milk production in recent years, with the result that the content of animal protein in the average person's diet has seriously decreased. We believe that it is now less than eight and perhaps less than seven grams per person per day. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the caloric content of the food available to the average West Pakistani housewife to feed her family should be about 2,300 calories per person per day. As tables 1. 14 and 1. 15 indicate, this is 10 percent more than the average available in West Pakistan, even with large imports of food grains. Total protein requirements for adults are about one gram per day per kilogram of body weight; for children the requirement is doubled.(23) Thus the average protein need in West Pakistan is 55 to 60 grams per person per day, roughly the amount in the available food stuffs. But only a fraction of the protein in most foods can be retained and used by the body. Other things being equal, this fraction depends on the proportions between amino acids. Of the 22 amino acids, between 8 and 10 are essential components for human nutrition. The percentage of protein retained for body maintenance and growth is partly determined by the requirement that the proportions of these essential amino acids in the retained fraction must equal or exceed certain minimum values.(24) Several of the essential amino acids, particularly lysine, methionine and tryptophan, are present in larger amounts in animal protein than in vegetable protein,(25) Two others, threonine and valine, are also generally higher in animal protein. Consequently, although animal protein as such may not be essential for human nutrition, the total amount of protein ingested must be relatively large if only vegetable proteins are eaten. With the minimal diets of West Pakistan, the daily amount of animal protein should probably be at least twice the present amount, or approximately 15 grams per person per day. In Japan, Taiwan and Korea, the average daily animal protein intake is about 24 grams.(26) (23) Food and Nutrition Board, National Academy of Sciences, "Recommended Dietary Allowances", Washington, 1958. (24) Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations, "Protein Requirements", FAO Nutritional Studies No. 16, Rome, 1957. (25) Heinz International Research Center, "Nutritional Data", pp 5-7, H. J. Heinz Company, Pittsburgh, 1962, (26) Joseph S. Chen; "Report of the Standing Committee on Nutrition", Proceedings Tenth Pacific Science Congress, Bishop Museum, Honolulu, 1963. 50



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Summary only about half the land during each season. Even so, the crops are mnade quately irrigated, particularly in the summer season. Much of the cropped area receives insufficient water to prevent salt accumulation. 2. System of land holding. Many of the farmers are share -cropping tenants and have little incentive to increase production. Nearly all of them struggle with small and widely -separated plots that multiply the difficulties of efficient use of irrigation water and farm animals, and gravely inhibit changes of traditional practices. Because of the bare subsistence level at which they live, the farmers are reluctant to experiment. They literally cannot afford to take the chance of losing any portion of their small harvest. 3. Primitive methods of cultivation. In West Pakistan we have the waste ful paradox of a great and modern irrigation system pouring its water onto lands cultivated as they were in the Middle Ages. Ploughing is done by a wooden plough of ancient design, pulled by a pair of bulloc~ks enfeebled by undernourishment. Unselected seeds are sown broadcast. Chemical fertilizers and pesticides are comparatively little known. Egypt uses 100 times more fertilizer per acre than does Pakistan; Japan more than 200 times as much; and yields per acre in both countries average about three times those of Pakistan. 4. In adequate services in rural areas. Many farmers in West Pakistan must pay exorbitant rates of interest on needed loans; they do not have access to marketing and transporation facilities; and they do not have the benefit of a skilled extension staff. These handicaps by themselves are enough to force the use of agricultural production patterns that are subsistence -oriented, and low-valued. What is needed and what can be accomplished in the Indus Plain is a large, rapid, continuing, and economically beneficial increase in agricultural production. We are convinced that within a generation West Pakistan's agriculture can undergo a revolution of the kind already occurring in the agriculture of Japan, the United States, and other advanced countries. A rate of increase can be established and maintained which will far outrun the growth of population, and will so improve the economic condition of the farmers as to form a base of farm purchasing power for industrial development. This can be done by an integrated appli-cation of all the factors of agricultural production, (See Chapter 2) combined with sufficient capital investment to attain momentum in improvement, and with a sustained human effort to communicate modern agricultural techniques to the farmers, to improve those techniques through research, and to create the economic conditions that will motivate the farmers to help themselves. 3



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Chapter 1 In the older canal systems the increase in gross area almost certainly means that the volume of irrigation water per acre correspondingly decreased. This is a continuation of a longestablished trend. Between 1905 and 1950, according to Majid, (15) the amount of irrigation water per acre in the Kharif season declined at a rate of about 1.1 percent per year. In th ,e Rabi season, the amount of water per acre declined at about 0.55 percent per year. Marketing and Prices Within the villages, marketing is largely self-contained, with considerable barter and few quality standards. For export crops there is a c ommercial marketing system with some quality grading. These crops are generally sold for cash to village merchants, landlords, and traveling buyers, acting on their own behalf or as agents for processors and exporters in urban centers. Such middlemen perform an important assembly function for producers in outlying regions. Much of the cotton grown in Former Sind is sold to cotton ginners who have financed the farmers' variable costs for the current season. For such perishable products as poultry, eggs, meat, vegetables, and fruits, prices fluctuate widely at both wholesale and retail levels. Because of inadequacies of storage and transpoi*ation, there is a succession of gluts and shortages in the rural areas, with prices falling below costs of production in flush periods. In many cases prices are determined by quantity without-regard to quality. (16) A. relatively small share of wheat production is sold outside the villiages, perhaps 15 to 30 percent. The remainder is consumed by the farmers and their, fellow villagers, and this consumption probably remains fairly stable except during years of crop failure. Variations in the size of the crop may thus strongly affect the volume of marketed supplies. In a good year the volume of wheat sold probably increases more than the increase in production; the reverse is likely to be true during a bad year. (15) "Note on the Value of Delta for the Various Punjab Canals in the Rabi of 1950-51", Irrigation Branch, Public Works Department, March 1954. (16) Government of Pakistan, Central Statistical Office, Cooperation and Marketing Department, "Report on the Marketing of Fresh Fruits in Pakistan", 211 pp., Karachi, 1958. 46



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Board of Economic Inquiry, Punjab (Pakistan), Economic survey of village Sagri in Rawalpindi district, Punjab, Pakistan: Lahore (Pakistan) 172 p.., 1950. Publication, Lahore. No. 98. Economics of well irrigation in the Thal: 1950, No. 101. Report on the need and supply of credit in the rural areas of the Punjab: 1951. No. 108. Farm accounts and family budgets of cultivators in the Punjab, 1949-50: 1954. No. 110. Economic survey of eight typical villages in the Thal: 188 p., 1955. No. 111. Soil erosion in the Punjab: 1955. No. 112, Survey of small holdings in the Punjab: 72 p., 1955. No. 115, Working of the cooperative farming societies in the Punjab: 75 p., 1956. No. 118. Farm accounts and family budgets of cultivators in the Punjab, 1950-51: 1957. No. 119. Farm accounts and family budgets of cultivators in the Punjab, 1951-52: 76 p.., 1958, No. 121. Farm accounts and family budgets of cultivators in the Punjab, 1952-53: 69 p., 1959. No. 123. Farm accounts and family budgets of cultivators in the Punjab, 1953-54: 41960. Bouwer, Herman, Theoretical aspects of flow above the water table in tile drainage of shallow homogeneous soils: Soil Science Society of America, Proceedings, 23 (4), p. 260-263, July-August, 1959. ----Theoretical aspects of unsaturated flow in drainage and subirrigation, numerical procedures proposed for obtaining solutions under realistic conditions of flow: Agricultural Engineering, 40 (7), p. 395-400, July, 1959. Bower, C. A., Gardner, W. R., and Goertzen, J. 0., Dynamics of cation exchange in soil columns: Soil Science Society of America, Proceedings, 21 (1), p. 20-24, January-February, 1957. Bowman, Waldo G., Big dams, big ditches and wells point way to Pakistan growth: Engg. News Record, p. 30-39, February 9, 1961. Box, J. E., and Lemon, E. R., Preliminary field investigations of electrical resistance-moisture stress relations in cotton and grain sorghum plants: Soil Science Society of America, Proceedings, 22 (3), p. 193-196, May-June, 1958. Braibanti, Ralph, The civil service of Pakistan, a theoretical analysis: The South Atlantic Quarterly, 58 (2), p. 258-304, Spring, 1959. Brown, J. Coggin, and Dee, A. K., India's mineral wealth: oxford Univ. Press, (Including Auden, J. B., ground water provinces of India and Pakistan) 1955. 382



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Ahmad, Nazir, Soil salinity in West Pakistan and the means to deal with it: UNESCO Iran Symposium, Teheran, p. 11-15, October, 1958. A stable and impervious lining for canals of West Pakistan: West Pak. Engg. Cong., vol. 44, no. 9, 1960. A study of velocity limits between laminar and turbulent flow for Punjab aquifer sand: Pak. Jour. Sci. Res., vol. 8, no. 1, January, 1956. ---Tube wells, a review on their performances: West Pak. Engg. Cong., 1961. ---Water potential of West Pakistan and its present development: U.S.-Pak. Seminar on Modernization, p. 4-6, March, 1963, Engg. News, March, 1963. Ahmad, Nazir, and Dewan Ali, Sediment characteristics of Indus with reference to erosion of its catchment: Pak. Jour. of Forestry, vol. XI, no. 4, October, 1961. ---Soil conservation in the catchment of Jhelum River: Pak. Jour. of Sci., vol. 13, no. 1, January, 1961. Ahmad, Nazir, and Abdul Hamid, Sedimentation of reservoirs on Indus River system: Proc. Engg. Cong. Paper no. 325, 1957. Ahmad, Nazir, and Fazal Karim Khan, Sediment in rivers of Indus Basin part II: Pak. Jour. of Sci., vol. 8, no. 6, November, 1956. Ahmad, Nazir, and Pervez, S. D., Soil erosion in north regions of West Pakistan: Indus, vol. 1, no. 7, August, 1960. Ahmad, Nazir, and Salah-ud-din, Fazal Karim and Dewan Ali, Sediment in rivers of the Indus Basin part III: Pak. Jour. of Sci., vol. 9, no. 6, November, 1957. Arkansas, Agricultural Experiment Station, Fayetteville, Use of reservoirs for production of fish in the rice areas of Arkansas: Fayetteville, Ark., 13 p., (its Special Report 9, June, 1959) 1959. Asghar, A. G., Causes of and remedies for excess salinity and alkalinity in irrigated lands: (in Second Regional Irrigation Practices Leadership Seminar) Teheran, p. 10-40, 1959. -----Cotton cultivation in the Thal area of Punjab (Pakistan): Pak. Jour. of Sci., 5 (3), p. 128-138, July, 1953. -----Distribution system of irrigation projects in Pakistan: (in Third Regional Irrigation Practices Leadership Seminar Nesa Region) Lahore (Pakistan), p. 141-151, February, 15-26th, 1960. 379



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Chapter 5 concentration were reduced to 0.05 percent or less.(3) It is evident that eliminating the salt would induce an increase of about 18 percent in the gross value of crop output, worth about Rs. 3 crore. With more adequate water supplies and vigorous agricultural administration, the percentage of culturable land cropped in our illustrative million acre tract should rise substantially above its current level of 80 percent, and the intensity of cultivation of the cropped acreage should increase above its current 118 percent. For example, if 90 percent of the culturable land were sown and the intensity of cultivation were raised to 150 percent, the net cultivated area would be 824 thousand acres. The sown area would be 1,240 thousand acres, an increase of 380 thousand acres over the current practice. The average value produced per gross sown acre with full irrigation according to Table 5.6 is Rs. 186. By taking advantage of the abundant tubewell water, the additional 380 thousand acres could be made to produce a somewhat higher value per acre by being planted to more valuable crops, as shown in Table 5.11. Thus the total gross value of crops could be raised to Rs. 23.1 crore (Table 5.10). This could be raised a further 18 percent to allow for desalination, for a total of Rs. 27.4 crore. In summary, the application of the tubewell water to desalination and the extension of the gross area sown could increase the value of crop output in a million acre tract by Rs. 12.2 crore per year. Increasing the depth of irrigation on currently cultivated land in its current condition increased the gross value of crop output by about Rs. 0.8 crore. Altogether, then, we foresee a contribution of water (made effective by more vigorous management) amounting to Rs. 13 crore per year for the additional value of crops in our illustrative project area. With present canal supplies of 1.03 million acre feet, the total quantity of tubewell water used on the fields would be 1. 16 million acre feet and the average annual depth of irrigation would be 32 inches. By comparison with the increase in value of crops, the cost of the additional wateris small. As shown in Chapter 7, we estimate that tubewell water in the Former Punjab and Former Bahawalpur should cost on the average about Rs. 19 per acre foot. This figure takes into account capital and operating costs of wells and appurtenances in areas of both fresh and salty underground water, as well as costs of drainage for return flows and flood protection, wells and conveyance channels for exporting salt water, and necessary additions to (3) In deriving column (2) of the table allowance was made for the tendency to grow relatively salt tolerant crops on moderately contaminated soils. After decontamination these crops would be replaced, at least partially, by economically more valuable ones. No allowance has been made for the increase in value resulting from this revision of cropping patterns. 192



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Chapter 5 it might be, (3) To estimate the value of additional scarce resources, e~. water during different months of the year, and (4) To determine the sensitivity of the results of the model to the various data used in the analysis. In analyzing the agricultural economy of the Khairpur Feeder West region, we have considered the possibilities of twelve field crops, all of which are grown there currently to a greater or lesser extent. These crops, together with their acreages and their corresponding net farm values, are shown in Table 5.13. We have also analyzed livestock production-an integral part of the rural economy of the Khairpur area-and current production levels of meat, milk, and work-stock also are shown in Table 5.13. The resources required for farm production can be grouped conveniently under the headings of labor, land, capital and water. Labor is in ample supply in Khairpur, as in the rest of Pakistan, and is not considered to be a restricting factor. Land, however, is considered to be a limiting resource, and allowance must be made for the fact that land under many of the crops can be used twice a year. There are therefore two restrictions on the use of land: neither the khairif nor the rabi plantings can exceed the total land available for cultivation, which is estimated to be 258,900 acres. Each acre of each field crop requires an acre of land in either kharif or rabi, as the case may be, and some require land in both seasons. These land requirements are shown in Table 5.15. Capital, in the form of bullocks, farm implements, etc., is another important resource of the rural economy of Khairpur. There is very little information on the equipment now on farms, or on the per acre implement requirements for each of the crops; therefore, we have not been able to include this type of capital in our analysis. However, there are data on bullock requirements, and at the present time, there is approximately one bullock per eight cultivated acres in the Khairpur area. Hence, we have assumed that if the total cultivated acreage increases (decreases), the number of bullocks will increase (decrease) also at the rate of 0.13 bullock per acre. The agricultural economy of Khairpur Feeder West exemplifies some of the intricacies of economic production in general. Bullocks, for example, are used to cultivate fodder. The fodder is then used to maintain the stock of bullocks so that they may cultivate more fodder (for themselves and other livestock) as well as other crops. In this economy, as in most, some of the things produced are not end-products desired for themselves but are intermediate goods required for the production of end-products as well as other intermediate goods. In analyzing such an economy, care must be taken to be sure 204



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Chapter 7 Table 7.1 Mean and Standard Deviation of Flows in the Indus. Jhelum. and Chenab Rivers (1921-48) (millions of acre feet) River Indus Jhelum Chenab Rabi (October-March) Mean Flow 13.9 4.6 4.8 Standard Deviation 1.8 1.2 1.0 Kharif (April-September) Mean Flow 76.4 18.1 20.2 Standard Deviation 10.5 2.9 2.5 Total Annual Mean Flow 90.3 22.7 25.0 Standard Deviation 11.4 3.7 3.2 332



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Rahman, Mustaqur, Problems of water supply in Karachi: (Unpublished) 1963. Resources for the Future, Natural resources and economic growth, papers presented at a conference held at Ann Arbor, Mich., April 7-9, 1960, under joint sponsorship of Resources for the Future, Inc., and Committee on Economic Growth of the Social Science Research Council: Joseph J. Spengler, ed., Washington, 306 p., 1961. Revelle, Roger, Mission to the Indus--new scientistj v. 17, no. 326, p. 340-342, February, 1963. Richards, L. A., Availability of water to crops on saline soils: Washington, U.S. Govt. Print. Off., 10 p. (U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Agriculture Information Bulletin no. 210) 1959. Richards, L. A., Gardner, W. R., and Ogata, Gen., Physical processes determining water loss from soil: Soil Science Society of America, Proceedings, 20 (3), p. 310-314, July, 1956. Robins, J. S., and Haise, H. R., Determination of consumptive use of water by irrigated crops in the western United States: Soil Science Society of America, Proceedings, 25 (2), p. 150-154, March-April, 1961. Royal Institute of Public Administration, Administrative organization for economic development, report of a conference at Pembroke College, Cambridge, 13th -24th July, 1959: London, 107 p., 1959. Ruff, Paul F., An investigation to determine the effectiveness of a chemical additive for reducing seepage in the South Canal, a summary: Tempe, Ariz., Arizona State University, School of Engineering, 24 p., 1961. Ruff, Paul F., and Klock, John W., An investigation to determine the effectiveness of a chemical additive for reducing seepage in irrigation canals: Tempe, Ariz., Arizona State University, School of Engineering, 38 p., 1960. Salam, Abdus, Technology and Pakistanis attack on poverty, address before the XIII Annual All Pakistan Science Conference, January 11, 1961, Dacca: Karachi, 11 p., 1961. Scholl, Walter, Wilker, Caroline A., and Davis, Marion M., Consumption of commercial fertilizers and primary plant nutrients in the United States, year ended June 30, 1960: Washington, 26 p., (U.S. Agricultural Research Service, ARS 41-19-4) 1961. Shah, Baqar Husain, Malik, Ijaz Ahmad, and Chaudhri Ikram Ilahi, Investigation on salt accumulating and salt excreting plants of West Pakistan: University of Sind, (Unpublished) 1962. 398



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Chapter 2 time to develop additional supplies of water. Salinity control on land now under cultivation is linked to additional water, and should be accomplished as increased water supply permits. In the meantime, and on a continuing basis where salinity control is difficult, maximum use should be made of salt-tolerant crops. As compared to fertilizer and additional water, returns from the use of better cultivation, improved seed, and pest control will require somewhat more time to put into effect, and the individual returns will, on the average, be smaller than the responses to more water and fertilizer. Nevertheless, it will be necessary to combine all of these factors to obtain maximum yields per acre. Because increasing production by the reclamation of abandoned saline and waterlogged lands will require considerable amounts of capital, management and technical skill, reclamation should not be attempted on any extensive scale until production on presently cultivated land has been increased. Farmers need a base of high-yielding land, and skills and capital obtained from that base, in order to undertake successfully the reclamation of abandoned lands. Thus, the reclamation of land should usually be performed in connection with going farm operations. When production of an excess of food and fiber crops for direct human consumption has been attained, emphasis should then be placed on increasing the animal protein content of the human diet. This will require an increase in the production of feed grain, and its utilization for increased livestock and poultry production. Meeting the increased need for feed grain will require the diversion of land presently used to produce food crops, or, if increased emphasis on livestock and poultry were scheduled to take place along with utilization and reclamation of saline and waterlogged land, these activities could be advantageously combined. Good use can be made of saline lands undergoing reclamation as pasture and for growing salt-tolerant crops, such as barley. li6



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Page 7.1 Mean and Standard Deviation of Flows in the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab Rivers (1921-48)-332 7.2 Summary of Computations of Skimming Well Formulation Isotropic Cases -------------------------------------------333 7.3 Summary of Tubewell Operations in Project No. 1 during the Year 1961-1962 -------------------------------------------334 7.4 Cost Analysis of Tubewell Systems-335 7.5 Cost Analysis of Tubewell Water with Three Different Tubewell Spacings------------------------------------------------336 A.1.1 Estimate of Potential Evapotranspiration for Selected Stations in West Pakistan ------------------------------------------411 A.5.1 Parameters of Water Response Curves -----------------------430 A.5.2 Estimated Water Supply by Canal and Season-------------------434 A. 5.3 Data for Estimating Optimal Cropping Pattern for a Million Acre Tract -----------------------------------------------436 A.5.4 Illustrative Optimal Cropping Pattern for a Million Acre Tract --437 MAPS (in pocket) 1.1 Map of Former Punjab and Former Bahawalpur and Portions of Former North West Frontier. 1.2 Average Annual Rainfall, in Inches 1.3 Average Rainfall, in Inches, during Rabi Season. 1.4 Average Rainfall, in Inches, during Kharif Season. 1.5 Estimated Effective Precipitation, in Inches, by Canal Systems XVIII



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Chapter 4 semi-autonomous body, it has remained closely tied to the Irrigation Department. The Board has made important contributions in the field of research and demonstration. In the mid1950's it developed a sizeable project of 150 tubewells in the Jaranwala area. In 1958, the Government created the West Pakistan Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) with a directive to prepare es comprehensive plan for the development of water and power resources of West Pakistan on a unified and multipurpose basis" and with full powers to effectuate such a plan, subject to project and financing approval. Initially the Authority was given considerable freedom with respect to personnel and expenditure. Since its creation the Authority has been immersed in a large program of design and construction of water and power projects as well as in the operation of an electric power system. More recently it has taken on very great responsibilities in connection with the Indus Waters Treaty Works. In all these activities, WAPDA is ably buttressed by distinguished engineering firms and contractors. Power operations were taken over from the Secretary of Irrigation, Communications and Work early in its career. Later, responsibility for underground water and soil investigations, tubewell reclamation, and surface drainage were transferred from the Irrigation Department. Out of this has developed Salinity Control and Reclamation Project No. One in Rechna Doab, and a long-range program for reclamation through tubewells and drainage. Agriculture In the area of agriculture in the Province, there is now a SecretariatDepartment of Agriculture to which are attached directorates of agriculture, animal husbandry (principally veterinarian services), fisheries (inland), forestry, and game warden. The Directorate of Agriculture has the principal mission to the cultivators-but it is a limited service. The Department started with a small role of demonstration to rural leaders and large owners. It has had neither adequate funds nor high status in the halls of government. ,The organization is widespread through divisions, districts and tehsils, out to front lines of agricultural assistants and field assistants. Through these channels flow extension services, including plant protection and horticultural services. But the front ranks are very thindeficient in numbers, training and mobility. For years they have been preoccupied with the logistics of seed and fertilizer supply, for which the controls were back in headquarters. The Department also has an engineering 174



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Table 3.1 (continued, p. 2) Wheat and Rice Production in Five Districts of the Former Punjab Wheat -Yield (in maunds per acre) District 1949-50 1950-51 1951-52 1952-53 1953-54 1954-55 1955-56 1956-57 1957-58 1958-59 Lahore 9.8 10.4 9.0 6.5 11.7 9.3 8.2 8.7 9.0 9.5 Montgomery 14.7 15.0 12.8 9.0 14.7 12.0 11.2 10.6 10.6 11.2 Lyallpur 15.5 16.1 12.0 11.4 14.7 12.8 12.3 13.1 13.1 12.8 Multan --------Shahpur 13.3 18...9.3 _4 9.8 9.0 10.1 9.8 9.5 10i.0 TOTAL 53.3 53.2 43.1 35.3 50.9 43.1 41.8 42.2 42.2 43.5 AVERAGE 14.4 14.4 10.8 8.8 12.7 10.8 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.9 10 year average = 11.4 (maunds/acre) 5 year average = 10.6 (maunds/acre) Average decrease over last 5 year period f 7.0% Rice -Area (in thousands of acres) Lahore 51 45 39 35 37 40 41 45 52 53 Montgomery 97 101 82 75 107 96 89 93 93 96 Lyallpur 19 16 17 19 27 24 24 23 26 25 Multan 34 35 27 25 33 39 34 31 32 25 Shahpur 13 16 20 10 18 26 19 22 24 23 TOTAL 214 213 .185 164 222 225 207 214 227 222 10 year average = 209 (thousand acres) 5 year average = 219 (thousand acres) Average increase over last 5 year period = 4.8%



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Chapter 7 near canals can be delayed until the ground water elevation has been lowered to an extent that recycling will not be excessive. The summary of the cost analysis is shown in Tables 7.4 and 7.5 for four designs of tubewell systems for the Former Punjab and Former Bahawalpur. It was assumed that the average annual rate of irrigation water as delivered to farmlands was 3.5 acre feet per net cultivated acre in the non-saline area, and 1.15 (3.5) = 4.0 acre feet per net cultivated acre in saline areas. Effective rain increases these rates to 3.9 and 4.4 feet per year. In three of the designs in which the ground water was mined, it was assumed that the average rate of drawdown of the water table would be 3.33 feet per year; in thirty years the water table would be lowered from 10 feet to 110 feet. The average recharge rate was assumed to be 0.67 feet per year after the water table had been lowered to depths exceeding ten feet. The specific yield was set at 0.25 (25 percent). In the non-saline areas the net pumping rate was 1.55 feet per year and the gross rate, allowing 15 percent for recycling, was 1.77 feet per year. In saline areas the rates were less than these as calculated in our water budget. Mined water in saline areas was 2.9 maf/yr; 1.0 maf/yr of this, it was assumed, would be discharged to waste lagoons and desert areas, and the remaining 1.9 maf/yr would be diluted with surface water and used for agriculture. In each of the three designs it was assumed that the entire aquifer of the northern plain of 30 million acres would be mined. The net acreage that would be cultivated in the Former Punjab and Former Bahawalpur under the foregoing assumptions would amount to 16.4 million acres of which 13.6 million acres would be in the non-saline areas and 2.8 million acres in regions underlain with water having salinity in excess of 2000 milligrams per liter. The total amount of pumping required would be 49.5 maf/yr in northern plain, or an average of 49.5/16.4 = 3.0 acre ft/yr per net cultivated acre; 56 percent of the pumps would lie within the net cultivated area and 44 percent would be outside. Although the total water supply was the same in each of the three designs, the capital investment in tubewells differed. With an average spacing of tubewells of 6000 feet on a rectangular lattice (826 acres per tubewell), 2180 wells would be used to supply water for each million net cultivated acres, the total number of wells in the other designs was inversely proportional to the square of the spacing. Power costs were estimated at 0.05 rupees per kilowatt hour. Drawdowns of the wells were estimated using a transmissivity of 100,000 gallons per day per foot. Conventional formulas were used to determine other friction losses. It was assumed that construction of salt export drainage works could be postponed for a ten-year period, and in Tables 7.4 and 7.5, item 3 has been discounted to include this saving in capital investment in drainage. 322



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INITIAL GROUND WATER CONCENTRATION -1OO0ppm NO EXCESS SALT ON SURFACE CONCENTRATION OF CANAL WATER -250 ppm !i2OOO Q; 4 v. 0~ N/ /No. 1000 -xv S00 -0.00 1000 00 1000 IO0O YEARS FIG.ool 7g'18 SAL COCIRTO-O PLE GTO AE -ol



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Summary For many reasons, it would be inadvisable to initiate so vast an enterprise abruptly. For the first five or six years we would propose to bring in project areas at the rate of about one a year. The entire development would be spread over more than a generation. After experience has been gained in the first few projects., it may be possible to proceed more rapidly with the others. The timetable for a typical project area would include a two-year pre paratory period during which tubewells and drains would be constructed and staff recruited and organized; a five-year period of intense development, during which the target increase in productivity would be 15 percent per year (or 100 percent for the five-year period); followed by growth at a rate of about 7 percent per year indefinitely. If one project were started each year, the cumulative increases in productivity should give a surplus over present agricultural yields per capita for all of West Pakistan after a few years. After 2 5 years, yields per capita would be about twice the present ones, even with a population increase of 3 percent a year. Our plan consists of and depends on an interweaving of the physical means of increasing agricultural production with the necessary economic and political factors. Such an ambitious program will require heroic efforts by the Government and people of West Pakistan. Widespread facilities for extension of credit designed to serve and encourage the farmers are essential. Transportation by pipeline, rail, and road must be developed. The difficulties of administration will require as much attention as any of the technical problems. The programs in agricultural research., education, and training must be substantially enlarged. Until Pakistani specialists can be trained., additional personnel from other countries will be needed. During the early years, technical assistance from the advanced countries will be required. Such agencies as the Agency for International Development., and the Peace Corps can make significant contributions but these expedients should be regarded as transitional. This will be a joint program with the farmers, and their cooperation is central to success. Each year'in each million acres some hundred thousand farmers and their families will be involved in economic and social change. Each farm family must participate as quickly as possible in the program. To enlist the cooperation of the farmers, supply services for fertilizers, seeds, pesticides, and implements must be developed, crop storage facilities must be built, and a marketing system established that will enable the 5



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Chapter 1 the long run about 10 percent more water be applied in irrigation and drained off than the amount needed for consumptive use by crops. Although there are no reliable estimates of net river losses (i.e. the dif ference between evaporation and seepage losses from the rivers and return underground drainage above the Ghulam Mohammad Barrage), we have assumed in Table 1.2 that these are 15 million acre feet per year (11.5 on Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab, and 3.5 on Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej) and that the outflow to the sea is close to 70 million acre feet. Both figures could be in considerable error; their sum, about 85 million acre feet, is, however, a relatively firm figure. The net river losses could lie between 15 and 25 million acre feet and the outflow to the sea between 60 and 70 million acre feet. Because of conveyance and application losses, a major fraction of the water diverted from the rivers into canals never reaches the root zone of the crops. The over-all river-to-crop efficiency has been estimated to lie between 45 and 55 percent for West Pakistan canals. This means that only 34-41 million acre feet is available for evapotranspiration and soil drainage in the farmers' fields. During recent years, the sown area irrigated by canal water has been close to 23 million acres, and consequently an average of between 1.5 and 1.8 acre feet of canal water per acre has been available for use by crops. With this small amount of water, extensive double cropping is impossible under the conditions of high evapotranspiration in the Indus Plain, and even with a single planting, most 'fields do not receive enough water for the crops, let alone for salinity control. Part of the 34 to 41 million acre feet lost from the canals and water courses leaks into the ground water reservoir, and the remainder is lost by non-beneficial evapotranspiration. In the Former Punjab most of the canal leakage could be recovered and used for irrigation if a system of wells were installed. In Former Sind, the major part of the underground water is too salty to be used economically, even after mixing with water that has leaked into the underground aquifer from the canals and from fields. The People Size of the Present Population No one knows for certain, but it is probably true that the population of Pakistan is now the fifth largest in the world, being exceeded only by China, India, the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, and the United States of America. Until very recently, both Japan and Indonesia were larger. In the 34



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Chapter 7 3. Recovery by tubewells of the increase in recharge from rivers (2.0 maf/yr) and rain (0.3 maf/yr) that may be expected with lowered water tables and desilted water in the streams, 2.3 maf/ yr. 4. Reduction in non-beneficial evapotranspiration with lowered water table and with improved management (Former Punjab and Bahawalpur 4.0 maf/yr; Former Sind 3 maf/yr), 7.0 maf/yr. 5. From increase in diversion at canal heads, allowing 15 percent losses (108.1 -92) (1 -0.15) = 13.7 maf/yr. 6. Net increase in average water supply for crops, 2.3 + 7.0 +13.7 -11 = 12.0 maf/yr. 7. Total irrigation water supply with second level of development: 59.1+34.9+12 = 106 maf/yr. Summary of Water Budget The total irrigation water supply from the distribution system and tubewells available for farmlands with the first and second levels of development is shown in the following table. Irrigation Water Supply (millions of acre feet per year) Former Punjab and Former Sind Total Bahawalpur First level of development 59.1 34.9* 94.0 Second level of development 66 40 106.0 *Assuming 8 maf/yr from additional water supply development; See Item I, E and F. The area of irrigated land assuming an average rate of application of irrigation water for consumptive use and for leaching of salts of 3.5 acre feet per acre per year (including effective rain, 3.9 ft/yr in the Former Punjab and Bahawalpur, and 3.67 ft/yr in the Former Sind) is presented in the following table. Irrigated Area (millions of acres) Former Punjab and Former Sind Total Bahawalpur First level of development 16.4* 10.0 26.4 Second level of development 18.3* 11.4 29.7 *Less than 59.1/ 3.5 = 16.9 and 66/3.5 = 18.8 because of extra water needed in irrigating areas overlying saline ground water. 288



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Chapter 7 be small and erratic. Most of the recharge from this source will occur only during monsoon rains of high intensity and long duration, and will be confined largely to zones near the rivers and canals where the water table is relatively high. The figure of 1 maf/yr is an estimated long-run average. The actual recharge from this source will fluctuate over a wide range from year to year. It will occur chiefly in northern districts such as Gujrat, Sialkot and Jhelum. (d) recharge of ground water by seepage from new link canals, 3.1 maf/ yr. The average annual rate of recharge of the aquifer is th en 20 maf/yr (13.9 + 2 + 1 + 3.1 =20).+ C. The areal extent of the aquifer of the Former Punjab and Bahawalpur is 30 million acres. Of these, 23 million acres overlie ground water containing an average of 700 milligrams per liter of dissolved salts and 7 million acres overlie saline water with an average of 6000 milligrams per liter of salinity. It is estimated that the total area of land that can be cultivated during the first level of development is 24 million acres. Of these, 18.4 million acres lie in the region in which the salinity of the ground water averages 700 milligrams per liter, and 5.6 million acres in the region in which the ground water salinity averages 6000 milligrams per liter. For ease of reference these are called the. "non-saline area" and the "saline area" respectively. It is assumed that tubewells would be used in both areas but in somewhat different ways. In the non-saline area the ground water would be pumped extensively (1) to recover the recharge of sweet water from allI sources, and (2) to "mine" the aquifer at the rate of 3.33 ft per year, so that after 30 years the water table would be lowered 100 feet. In the second level of development this rate presumably would be reduced and water from other sources utilized. In the saline area the tubewells would also be used for mining and to recover recharge. Part of the saline ground water is a valuable resource -it can be diluted with surface water and applied to crops. A mathematical analysis is made in a later section to determine the extent to which it can be used effectively and economically to augment the total supply. It is expected that in the saline area the efficiency of recovery of the fresh water 272



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4Y PERCENT LENGTH 0 25 50 75 I O0 0 0 20-13.5 z2 Maximum Drawdown, 14 feet 0I o IJ 40-26.7 U. 2 =: z" 0 za 60-40 (. L =14 miles CD 80-53.3 CA3 Maximum Drawdown, 51 feet 100L= 41 miles 66.7 Maximum Drawdown, 67 feet Figure 7.27 Drawdowns across Rectangular Project Areas Having Widths of 4. 5, 14, and 41 Miles, Showing the Effect of Lateral Infiltration-after 20 Years of Pumping. The Maximum Drawdown without Infiltration in 20 Years is 67 Feet.



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Table 5.12 Increases in Yields per acre for Increased Irrigation and Application of Nitrogen Fertilizer, Improved Seeds, and Plant Protection (1) (2) (3) (4) Improved seed Increase from Nitrogen and Plant Total Crop Full Fertilizer Protection Increase Irrigation Increase Iree Indseace (mds/ac) (mds/ac) (mds/ac Wheat (a) 3.4 1.2 4.6 Barley 0.4 (a) (a) .4 Gram (a) (a) (a) Oilseeds (a) (a) 1.0 1.0 Rice 2.5 2.9 6.2 11.6 Sugarcane 1.2 10.1 6.7 18.0 Bajra 1.7 (a) (a) 1.7 Maize 1.5 5.7 6.8 14.0 Cotton .9 1.9 2.8 5.6 Summer Fodder 30 38 (a) 68 Winter Fodder 12 38 (a) 50 (a) Negligible Sources: (1) Difference in yield between Table 5.5 and Table 5.6. (2) From Table 5.9, corrected for the percentage of area under different crops that is already being fertilized -(See Table 2.4.1). (3) Planning Commission, Government of Pakistan, Self Sufficiency in Foodgrains and Agricultural Production Targets for the Second Plan (1960-61 to 1964-65), August 1959. Estimated increases in yield are less than in our Table 2.5 because Planning Commission estimates have been reduced by the percentage of acreage already covered with plant protection measures and better seeds. 224



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Chapter 3 under the supervision of a vigorous director with responsibility for modernizing the agriculture of his region, and provided with necessary equipment and supplies. The project agricultural organization would, of course, cooperate closely with'other local authorities, especially the Basic Democracies and the farmer's cooperatives, and would take full advantage of their advice and support in carrying out its undertakings. The details of the project areas will be discussed further below. Size of the project areas It is important for the project areas to be small enough to be manageable. On the other hand, they must be large enough to make efficient use of the necessary minimal staff of specialists and of the necessary physical improvements, the most important of which are tubewell and drainage projects, a fertilizer plant, maintenance facilities for machinery, motor vehicles, and the like, and centralized facilities for research and plant experimentation. The hydrology of groundwater control by tubewells and consideration of effective management (see Chapter 7) indicate a unit of about a million acres as the approximate size of an efficient project area, at least in the Former Punjab. The difficulty of lowering the groundwater table over a given region varies directly with the ratio between. perimeter and area. This ratio, of course, diminishes rapidly as the area becomes larger, and our computations indicate that in the Northern Part of the Indus Plain the benefit from tubewells approaches an Aptimum with an area of roughly a million acres. The shape of the area is also important in attempting to lower the water table. Ideally, this should be as close to a circle or a square as natural and artificial boundary conditions permit, bearing in mind that each project should lie within the area commanded by a major canal. A unit about 40 miles on a side contains 1,600 square miles, or approximately a million acres. This accordingly, is the scale of the unit developmental area that we are recommending. Timing For many reasons, it would be inadvisable to initiate so vast an enterprise abruptly. Hence our plan evisages bringing in project areas at the rate of about one a year. The time table for a typical project area would include a two-year preparatory period during which engineering improvements such as tubewells and drains are constructed and staff is recruited and organized, a five -year period of intense development during which the target incras~i prodctivity should be 15 percent per year (or 100 percent for the five -year period), followed by growth at the rate of about 7 percent per year indefinitely. 131



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Chapter 7 can move vertically through the aquifer. In alluvial formations horizontal stratifications and silt and clay lenses are invariably present as a result of irregular deposition of the flood plain material. These inhomogeneities often have little effect on horizontal water movement, but may have a pronounced influence on vertical flow. Ratios of horizontal to vertical permeability of 10 or even 100 are not uncommon. Vertical flows are important in determining the efficacy of leaching, and the fate of excess irrigation water and precipitation. Also, artificial recharge rates of excess surface waters to storage underground are governed by vertical permeabilities. It would be useful in each project area to measure recharge rates in shallow recharge basins. From these data vertical permeabilities could be determined. Tubewell Construction The success of a tubewell scheme depends upon efficient design; tubewells should have a long life and minimum maintenance cost. Therefore, experimental types of layout and construction should be included in tubewell installations to obtain data that will benefit later projects. Attention should be given to alternatives in well depth, gravel-packing, casing materials, and perforations. It is particularly important in view of the major differences in ground water quality in different regions that well casings and perforations be adapted to local conditions. A substantial effort should be directed to the development of inexpensive, corrosion-resistant casings and screens. Performance should be rated with respect to entrance losses, specific capacity, maximum yield, sediment content and changes in performance occurring in time. Vertical Variation of Ground Water Quality There is a paucity of data relating to the quality of ground waters a few hundred feet below the ground surface. Information regarding salinity-depth variations is needed for designing efficient tubewell systems. If high salinities exist at relatively shallow depths, tubewells must be designed to skim the upper zone of usable ground water and disturb the saline zones to a minimum extent. Our theoretical investigation of the skimming operations indicate that a substantial increase in yield can be obtained by increasing the radius of the well. This should be confirmed experimentally and the economics of shallow, large -diameter (e. g., 75 ft by 4 ft diameter) bored wells investigated. Test tubewells and observation wells yielding water samples at specific depths are required. These should be properly distributed over each region 329



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Page Chapter 5 ECONOMIC APPRAISAL OF THE AGRICULTURAL MODERNIZATION PLAN (Continued) (Prospects for the Former Punjab) -Continued Recapitulation for an Illustrative Project Area ------------199 Possible Total Production Increases in the Former Punjab and Former Bahawa1pur ------------------------200 Marketing, Credit, and Organizational Problems ----------201 Prospects in Former Sind --------------------------------203 Possible Effects of Reorientation toward a Market Economy --------------------------------------------203 Possible Economic Benefits from Tubewell Water ---------211 Chapter 6 PRODUCTIVITY INCREASES FROM FURTHER AGRICULTURAL DIVERSIFICATION ---------------------232 Increasing Animal Protein Production ----------------------233 Livestock Alternatives ----------------------------------233 Poultry Alternatives ------------------------------------238 Fresh Water Fish Alternatives --------------------------241 Other Diversification Alternatives -------------------------245 Fruit, Vegetable, and Specialty Crops --------------------246 Forest Products ---------------------------------------247 Dairy Products --------------------------------------247 Diversification and the West Pakistan Farmer --------------249 Summary of Possibilities for Diversification ----------------251 Chapter 7 HYDROLOGY --------------------------------------------257 Introduction ----------------------------------------------257 General Feature s of the Hydrological Regime ---------------258 Waterlogging and Salinity ---------------------------------260 Hydrologic and Soil Parameters Used in the Water Budget ----265 Runoff and Reservoir Storage-Yield Relations ---------------266 Water Budget for Future Development ----------------------268 Limitations of Surface and Subsurface Drainage -----------269 First Level of Development -----------------------------269 Second Level of Development ----------------------------285 Summary of Water Budget ------------------------------288 Hydrological Factors Relating to the Selection of the Optimal Size of Project Areas ---------------------------289 Lateral Infiltration of Groundwater into Project Areas from Unpumped Lands ---------------------------------------290 Computer Solutions of Groundwater Flow Problems --------291 Analogue Computer Studies of Effects of Pumping in Project Areas ---------------------------------------292 Analysis of a Modeled Ten-Mile Strip of Aquifer -----------292 XI



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CONTENTS Page Summary ----------------------------------------------------------1 A Plan of Action -----------------------------------------4 Potential Increases in Agricultural Output ------------------7 Estimated Costs -----------------------------------------10 The Water Budget ----------------------------------------12 Water Development ----------------------------------------15 Organization and Management -----------------------------16 Research and Development --------------------------------17 Chapter, 1 THE PROBLEM -----------------------------------------19 Introduction ---------------------------------------------19 The Land -----------------------------------------------21 Land Forms -------------------------------------------23 Areas of Easily Culturable Land -------------------------25 The Water ----------------------------------------------27 Weather and Climate ------------------------------------27 Average Annual Rainfall --------------------------------27 Average Seasonal Rainfall -------------------------------28 Effective Precipitation ---------------------! ------------28 Variations in Rainfall from Year to Year -----------------29 Temperature -------------------------------------------29 Humidity -------------I -------------------------------30 Potential Evapotranspiration -----------------------------30 Floods and Flood Damage -------------------------------31 River and Canal Waters -------------------------------32 The People -----------------------------------------------34 Size of the Present Population ---------------------------34 Observed and Projected Rates of Population Growth --------36 Age Distribution ---------------------------------------37 Density of Population and Rate of Increase in Different Regions ------------------------------------37 Proportion of Rural and Urban Populations --------------38 Education ---------------------------------------------38 Agriculture -Land, Water, and People in Combination -------38 Agriculture in Pakistan's Economy -----------------------38 Proportion of Farm Production in Different Regions -------39 Food and Other Crops ----------------------------------40 VII



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Chapter 2 Increasing Production by Reclaiming Deteriorated or Abandoned Saline Land Two types of saline farm land exist in West Pakistan: (1) land where the water table is at a sufficient depth to prevent appreciable upward movement of ground water, but salination has occurred because irrigation was inadequate to meet the leaching requirement; and (2) land where salination has occurred through upward movement and evaporation of ground water from a shallow water table, in addition to failure to meet the leaching requirement. Reclamation of land of the first type may be effected by ponding water on the land so as to induce leaching. Reclamation of land of the second type can also be effected in the same way, but an essential prerequisite is, either lowering of the water table by horizontal drainage, or induction of a downward movement of water from the fields by pumping underground water upward to the surface in wells, and either draining it off or spreading it on the land. Table 2.6 presents estimates of the increase in yields attainable by desalination. The yield of crops having high salt tolerance, such as wheat, cotton, and barley, is much reduced in soils with a salt content of more than 0.4 to 0.5 percent. Crops of low or intermediate salt tolerance, such as pulses, maize, sugar cane, and rice, show a marked decrease in yield, when the soil salt content is above 0. 15. to 2 percent. For example, as Table 2.6 shows, the yield of sugar cane can be almost tripled, provided other factors of production are favorable, by reducing the soil salt from 0. 2 to 0. 1 percent. As a general rule, in areas where the permeability has not been reduced by increase in exchangeable sodium, about 50 percent of the salt in the root zone can be removed by applying 6 inches of water for each foot of soil; about 80 percent can be removed with additions of one foot of water per foot of soil; and about 90 percent can be removed with 2 feet of water per foot of soil. Because of the high solubility of most salts, high-salt waters can be used during the initial stages of leaching operations. In fact, if soil permeability is low owing to the presence of exchangeable sodium, the use of highsalt water will increase the rate of water movement. The final increment of leaching water, iLe., 8 to 12 inches, should,. of course, be of acceptable quality for irrigation. It is likely that at least 6 million acres of culturable land under canal command in West Pakistan have an average salt content in the top 3 feet 111



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Chapter 7 of Kozeny(16) for the steady flow of a homogeneous fluid into a well that partially penetrates an aquifer having isotrophic permeability, 21kDSw 1 Qmax = [log(re/rw) -[8 1 + 7(rw/2D)2 cos (-rD/2m)] Kozeny's formulation has been slightly modified by inclusion of a term /., to take into account the fact that in an extensive well field of the type under consideration most, if not all, of the recharge-water pumped by a well enters through the ground surface within the effective radius, re, of the well. If all the recharges enter this way, /8 = 1; in the case of an isolated well where practically all the recharge enters the field through the cylindrical surface 2T rem, 83= 0. By substitution of the value for Sw given by the first equation in the second, the following equation is obtained. Qmax = 2T km[(Ps -Pf)/ Pf m(1-0 ) a [loge(re/rw) -/1Ll+7(rw/2aM) cos(1 a /2)] where a = D/ m is the degree of penetration by the well of the fresh water layer. In Figure 7.14 values of Qmax are plotted against the degree of penetration, a for the following set of parameters: rw = 2.25 ft; m = 500 ft; kD = 200,000 gallons per day per foot (k = 19,500 feet per year); Ps = 1.0167 (for 20,000 milligrams per liter of salinity); Pf = 1.00075 (for 900 milligrams per liter of salinity); and for /3 = 0. Figure 7.14 shows that values of Qmax increase with a decrease of the degree of penetration until a reaches a value of about 50 percent. At lower degrees of penetration the value of discharge decreases and approaches zero. For the values of the parameters assumed the maximum production of the well is about 250 gpm. Physically the results may be explained by noting that when the bottom of the well is near the original level of the interface, only a small discharge with a small drawdown will cause the salt cone to rise to the well-bottom and a slight increase in discharge will cause salt water to enter the well. On the other hand, when the degree of penetration is small, the flow rate is limited by the build -up of hydraulic friction in the fresh water as it converges into the small entrance area of the well. The skimming well equation was solved for twenty-four cases (See Table 7.2) with different sets of the soil, aquifer, and well parameters (k, m, P s, Pf, rw). In each case the optimal value of a= D/m was determined with /8 = 2, and with an average ground water recharge rate of 0.72 acre foot per 300



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Chapter 4 the Planning Commission and the Economic Council, which have the responsibility for preparing and reviewing the 5-year plans and annual improvement programs, including reclamation programs and projects. The role of the Planning Commission has been expanded to cover reporting of progress and advising on facilitation. The central MiJnistry of Finance is concerned, of course, with fiscal and budgetary aspects of reclamation projects. At the provincial level in West Pakistan, His Excellency the Governor, the Chief Secretary, the Additional Chief Secretary for Administrative Affairs and the Additional Chief Secretary for Planning and Development, each have a significant general and supervisory responsibility for reclamation projects. Two Departments of a total of ten, one Authority, and one Corporation are directly responsible and involved. Water First, reference should be made to the SecretariatDepartment of Irrigation and Power, which reports to the Provincial Mlinister of Agriculture, Food, and Irrigation. This is the 'senior member of the water family. It is responsible for a monumental system of barrages, canals, distributaries, and irrigation outlets, and for the assessment of water charges. Under the supervision of an EngineerSecretary, the Irrigation Department has a wide ranging organization of regional chief engineers and divisional deputy chief engineers, each with a hierarchy of executive engineers, subdivisional officers, overseers, zilladars and patwaris. The Department has grown with the irrigation system to a high level of competence and prestige. However, at the time of partition it lost many of its technicians. Further erosion has been caused by large losses of trained personnel and important functions to other agencies. In the last year there has been considerable decentralization to the regional chief engineers. In 1952, a Soil Reclamation Board was created with broad powers for reclamation and land improvement through tubewell installation, drainage, control of water and land, agricultural services of all kinds, and community development. The Lahore Regional Chief Engineer of the Irrigation Department is Chairman of the Board, and the Land Reclamation Directorate of the Department provides important technical services. The Board has broad powers to intervene in land and water development but small freedom of action or flexibility to manage its internal affairs. Envisaged as a 173



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Chapter 6 Salton Sea is due to the high nutrient level in the water caused by leaching of fertilizers from the surrounding agricultural lands. This effect would also exist in Pakistan as the use of fertilizer increased, giving rise to increased production. As the ground water level is lowered in the agricultural lands of the Indus Plain, some of the ponds could act as recharge basins for the aquifer, and could provide storage for excess water during high river stages or during high rainfall. Eventually some sealing would be required if the fishery were to be preserved at a high level of production; however, partial sealing over the first fifteen or twenty years would probably occur from natural effects. In summary, the development of excavated ponds in areas of permeable soils and high water table could increase substantially the animal protein available for human food. These ponds could be developed around existing topographic lows and would take little land out of the agricultural potential. But construction costs would be inordinately high unless the expected productivity could be increased to 600 pounds of fish per acre per year. However, the ponds would yield other real benefits by acting to improve the agriculture of the project areas. Thus, if means can be found for reducing commercial excavation costs, if pond deepening can be completed as a village works project, or if average productivity per acre could be kept sufficiently high, fresh-water fish production from excavated ponds may have considerable potential. Surface Ponds: In areas of sodium-damaged soils, a variation in pond construction can make fish production a more attractive alternative. In these regions, it may be possible to erect bunds around pond sites rather than having to excavate the entire pond bed. This would have two distinct advantages. First, bunds would require the movement of much less earth, e. g., to excavate completely the bed on an eight-foot pond an acre in size would involve the movement of about 350,000 cubic feet of earth; to erect bunds eight feet high about the perimeters of a grid of adjoining ponds, each an acre in size, would require the movement of about 50,000 cubic feet per acre.(17) This could mean a cost of approximately Rs 700-800 per acre, depending of course on the size of the pond and the number of ponds in the grid. (17) Assuming a base width of 19 feet and a top width of 3 feet for the bund. 244



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Chapter 7 Percentage of Hours Lost by Tubewells in Project No. 1 during the Year 19611962 Period Cause of lost hours Percentage of time lost September 1961-March 1962 Electrical defects 9.8 Mechanical defects 7.4 No demand, or inadequate distribution works 20.8 Total 38.0 April 1962-September 1962 Electrical defects 8.5 Mechanical defects 8.0 No demand, or inadequate distribution works 10.3 Total 28.8 The data show that the major cause of non-operation of tubewells was not inadequate electrical supply or failures of pump motors, but rather that of inadequate facilities for utilization or disposal of the new water supplies. The reduction in lost time from the first half of the year to the last half is encouraging. Presumably, as farmers come to depend more upon the supplemental water and distribution facilities are improved, considerably higher efficiencies can be expected. Conclusion. Data from 1961-1962 from Rechna Doab show that tubewells were effective in lowering the water table and are in substantial agreement with predictions based on our digital computer analysis. Reductions of from less than one foot to more than 5 feet were reported. Recent installations of tubex wells in large units produced better results than did early tubewell installations in smaller areas in which excessive lateral infiltration and mechanical defects occurred. Tubewell-Field Design Consideration Tubewell installations entail several types of capital and operating costs; these include well construction (drilling, casing and gravel); developing and testing; pump housing; equipment (pump, motor and controls); electrification (transmission lines, substations, transformers, service lines, etc.); power (fuel); canal remodeling and watercourse enlargement; drainage for return flow and flood protection; and access roads. Moreover, when mining of the ground water is planned, consideration must also be given to three 319



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Chapter 3 Necessary Conditions for the Success of the Plan Our plan consists of, and depends on, an interweaving of the physical means of increasing agricultural production with the necessary economic, political, and social factors. Such an ambitious program will require heroic efforts by the Government and people of West Pakistan. Support by the Provincial Government The impact of a concerted effort to raise agricultural productivity will be felt in almost every department of the Provincial Government. Major administrative changes and major expansion in certain areas will be required. Massive engineering works must be constructed, operated, and maintained. Research, education, and training in agriculture and engineering must be substantially enlarged. For several years, considerable numbers of additional personnel from other countries will be needed, Effective ways of supporting and utilizing these persons need to be developed. Widespread facilities for extension and. credit designed, expressly to serve and to encourage the farmers are essential. Rail, truck, and pipeline transportation facilities must be expanded. The supply and distribution of natural gas needs to be materially increased. Trucks, truck maintenance facilities, and improved roads will be needed to move supplies and produce. Storage facilities for part of the increased production are essential. Expansion of fertilizer plant capacity must be coordinated with the inauguation of project areas. Communication with the farmers Technological innovation is necessary but not sufficient to meet the objec tives of the plan. This will be a joint effort with the farmers, and their cooperation is essential to success. The recommended program of development will intimately affect the life of every rural family in each project area. Each year in each million acres, some 100,.000 farmers and their families will be involved in technologic, economic, and social revolution. Vigorous and effective efforts to use water, chemical fertilizers, new seeds, pesticides, better tools, improved practices, and expanded credit are all part of the demands that will be placed on the farmers. From the standpoint of innovation, the simplest of the changes will be the use of tubewell water. Yet the provision of additional water to permit 135



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Theis, Charles V., Chart for computation of drawdown in wells in vicinity of a discharging well: Washington, 6 e, (U.S. Geological Survey, Ground Water Branch, ground water notes, hydraulics, no. 6) 1952. Tipton and Kalmbach, Inc., Denver, Feasibility report on salinity control and reclamation,,project number two (Chaj Doab) West Pakistan: Lahore, West Pakistan Water and Power Development Authority, 1 v. (various pagings) 1960. ----Supplement: Denver, Lahore, 22, 13 p., 1961, ----An interim report on the effectiveness of tube well reclamation in the former Punjab area of West Pakistan: Lahore, West Pakistan Water and Power Development Authority, 15 p., 1961. ----Project no. 1, salinity control and reclamation project, progress report no. 21, February, 1961: Lahore, West Pakistan Water and Power Development Authority, 10 p., 1961. ----Project no. 1, salinity control and reclamation project, progress report no. 29, October, 1961: Lahore, West Pakistan Water and Power Development Authority, 7 p., 1961. ----Report on drainage requirements for irrigated area of West Pakistan, for the Pakistan Water Delegation: Denver, 22 p., 1957. ----Report on irrigation water requirements for West Pakistan, for the Pakistan Water Delegation; Govt. of Pakistan, Denver, 18 p., 1957. ----A review of project number one, salinity control program in West Pakistan: Lahore, West Pakistan Water and Power Development Authority, 43 p., 1959. ----Supplement by C. E. Jacob, 2 v. ----Salinity control and reclamation project no. 1, tube wells commissioned as on September 26, 1961: Lahore, West Pakistan Water and Power Development Authority, portfolio of 7 maps, 1961. Ullah, Asrar, Chromite and its mining in West Pakistan: Pakistan Geog. Rev., v. lb, no. 2, July, 1961. United Nations, Econ. Comm. for Asia and the Far East, Geological Map of Asia and the Far East; 1961. United Nations, Dept. of Economic and Social Affairs, Future population estimates by sex and age, report 4, The population of Asia and the Far East, 1950-1980. New York, 110 p., (Population studies no. 31) 1959. 400



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Page 3.4 Estimated Capital and Operating Cost of First Stages of Agricultural Development in the Former Punjab and Former Bahawalpur ----------------------------------------------165 5.1 Estimates of Irrigation Requirements for Selected Crops --------213 5.2 Apparent Depths of Irrigation Plus Effective Rainfall, Lower Chenab Canal ---------------------------------------------214 5.3 Sufficiency of Water Supply for Major Crops Planted -------------2i5 5.4 Actual and Potential Yields, Major Crops, Lower Chenab Canal Region ----------------------------------------------216 5.5 Land and Water Use on a Typical Million Acre Tract ------------217 5.6 Water Use on Million Acre Tract Served by Lower Chenab Canal ----------------------------------------------------218 5.7 Effect of Current Salt Contamination on Yields, Rechna Doab ----219 5.8 Increases in Yield and Value of Wheat Crops from Use of Nitrogen and Phosphate Fertilizer ---------------------------220 50 Increase in Production Resulting from Addition of Nitrogen Fertilizer to Selected Crops in Canal Irrigated but Only Slightly Waterlogged and Saline Districts in the Former Punjab --------------------------------------------------221 5.10 Economic Benefits of Tubewell Water and Agricultural Modernization in a Million Acre Tract -----------------------222 5.11 Cropping Pattern Assumed in Computing Potential Increase in Crop Value -----------------------------------------------223 5.12 Increases in Yields per Acre for Increased Irrigation and Application of Nitrogen Fertilizer, Improved Seeds, and Plant Protection -------------------------------------------224 5.13 Current Production Pattern for Khairpur -----------------------225 5.14 Potential Increases in the Value of Output by Changing Production Patterns in Khairpur -----------------------------226 5.15 Land Requirements for Crops of Khairpur ----------------------227 5.16 Forage Yields per Acre, and Livestock Requirements per Head--228 5.17 Monthly Water Requirements of Crops of Khairpur, including Total Monthly Supplies of Irrigation Water Available -----------229 5.18 Linear Programming Model (IA) for Khairpur Feeder West ------230 5.19 Possible Effects of Additional Irrigation Water from Tubewells on Agricultural Production in Khairpur ----------------------231 6.1 Vegetable Crops of the Irrigated Arid Valleys of California ...------252 6.2 Fruit and Nut Crops of the Irrigated Arid Valleys of California --254 6.3 Salinity Tolerances of Fruits and Vegetables in the Irrigated Arid Valleys of California ---------------------------------255 XVII



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Summary of undiluted salt water pumped from large deep wells will need to be exported, and we recommend that it be disposed of in salt lagoons, perhaps in the Thar Desert. A careful analysis shows that it would not be economical to modify the canal system in order to transport an increased volume of river water for long distances into the areas overlying salty underground water. Even without such an additional supply of canal water, we believe that the average salinity of irrigation water in the salty areas can be held to between 1200 and 2000 parts per million. With this salinity, the depth of irrigation will need to exceed 3.5 feet; in order to maintain salinity control in the soil, it should probably be close to 4 feet. The total amount of irrigation water in the salty areas will be 11.4 million acre feet, and the area of intensively cultivated land should be therefore be limited to about 3 million acres, leaving around 13 million acres for intensive cultivation in the non-saline areas. In the northernmost part of the Plain, more water may be available than can be used; additional water should then be transported to the salty areas. In both the saline and the non-saline areas, the salinity of groundwater will be increased when the salts accumulated in the soils are washed downward. Moreover, there is a small annual influx of salt from the rivers. To maintain a salt balance at a satisfactory level for agriculture, about 10 percent of the total water used for irrigation win eventually have to be exported from the region. However, for the next twenty or thirty years the amount of water to be exported does not need to be more than a million acre feet per year. This can be disposed in the rivers, but only during the summer months of high river flows in order not to raise to a serious degree the salinity of winter irrigation water in Former Sind. Of the 44 million acre feet of canal water available in Former Sind in an average year, as much as 11 million acre feet may be lost by canal and water-course leakage and downward percolation from irrigated lands, and approximately 6 million acre feet by non-beneficial evapotranspiration. Around 27 million acre feet per year will be available for consumptive use by crops. Effective precipitation will add another 2 million acre feet, and 4 to 12 million acre feet probably can be obtained from wells in the comparatively small areas of sweet groundwater near the bed of the Indus. Unless leakage and percolation from the canals and fields can be reduced, a depth of water for irrigation of 3.5 feet can be obtained on at most 9 to 11 million acres depending upon the amount of groundwater that can be developed. This is more than the prese n'tly cultivated area, but less than the 12 million acres now under canal command. Because of high evapo,transpiration, an irrigation depth of 3.5 feet would be minimal for even moderately intensive cultivation. 14



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Chapter I oils to the highly industrialized countries, their own populations have a dietary deficit of over 30 percent in fat. More than three million tons of vegetable oils, worth close to $1 billion., are needed to make up this dietary deficiency. The critical deficiency in animal proteins is particularly .severe for pre-school children and pregnant and lactating mothers, but it makes entire populations more vulnerable to disease and reduces the length of life of adults. In terms of non-fat dry milk, world production would need to be almost doubled, from one and a half to three million tons, in order to provide adequate animal protein for the poorer countries. As with food grains it is most unlikely that the deficiency of animal protein in the low-income countries as a whole could be made up by imports, because of difficulties of transport, storage and distribution, even if the food surplus countries were willing and able to double their production. In all the low-income countries, it is not sufficient. simply to increase food supply to meet the needs of the present populations. An annual rate of increase considerably higher than 2.5 percent is needed, at least for the next several decades until population growth can be brought under control. Other Needs for Agricultural Expansion Beside the desperate need to raise food production for its own malnourished and growing population, an increase in agricultural production in West Pakistan would bring benefits to the entire country. The cotton textile industry is rapidly expanding, yet it is far from meeting the domestic needs for cotton cloth in the two Wings of Pakistan, let along the potentialities of export markets for inexpensive cotton fabrics in Africa and Asia. Demand for these fabrics in Pakistan is one of the sources of inflationary pressures within the country. During the last ten years, the requirements of the domestic textile industry have been met by a reduction in raw cotton exports. In the early 1950's most of the cotton crop was exported; by 1961, exports accounted for only 13 percent of the crop. If this trend continues, a m arked increase in cotton production will be needed within the next few years to meet the requirements of Pakistan's textile mills. Wool now makes up about three percent of the value of agricultural production in West Pakistan and the half of the clip that is exported brings in between four and five percent of the country's foreign exchange. The world market for wool should remain strong for many years to come, and should be able to absorb a considerable expansion in West Pakistan's wool production. 53



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TIME, yrs 40 41 42 43 44 1 1 18 w I3: 190 z 0 UT = 1.67 ft/yr u.. 50 o/o REDUCTION IN LEAKAGE 0 SEE FIGURE 8 FOR NOTES I i 20 DETAILS OF SEASONAL FLUCTUATIONS FIGURE 7.25



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Summary farmers to pJIM maximum benefits from increased crop production. Means of transmitting technical and marketing information to the farmers must be enlarged and improved by an order of magnitude. A long-range program for producing better seeds and plant varieties should be started immediately, as at least five years are needed before the first seeds will be available for large-scale distribution. The primary breeding efforts should be concentrated in the major education and research centers of West Pakistan, but they should be supplemented by localized breeding and field testing in the project areas to determine local adaptability. At the same time, efforts should be made within the project areas to identify and test the most promising varieties of present seeds. Ultimately, several hundred thousand acres of seed farms will be needed. Accurate information must be gathered on farm budgets and the results of farm plans, yields from crop-cutting experiments, water applied to crops and other hydrologic data, and soil characteristics. Statistical benchmarks must be established from which progress can be measured. (see Chapter 8). Programs of agricultural improvement have been attempted in many developing countries, and isolated successes in relatively small areas are a matter of record. No precedent exists, however, for innovation on the scale contemplated in our plan -a million acres a year for twenty-five years. Because of the lack of precedent,. comparative trials should be undertaken concurrently in each of the first few project areas to test the relative social and economic effectiveness of different method fo r inducing innovation. One of the major mission of the early projects should be pro vide sound data for the guidance of later ones. Especially important is the transfer of technology to farmers, and the study of techniques of transfer should be given high-priority. Three methods seem particularly worthy of further study: (1) the farm-plannhig or budgeting approach, which has been very successful in the United States and which is the basic technique of the intensive program in India, (2) the "cooperative -academy" approach which has yielded excellent results at Comilla in East Pakistan, and (3) the use of mass communication media. The effectiveness, relative to costs in trained manpower and operating expenses, of these methods should be compared with that of other techniques such as use of demonstration farms and orthodox extension services, or simply concentration on prompt and adequate supply of the factors of production, combined with marketing incentives. In developing the project areas, there should be a strong emphasis on increasing production from lands that have not yet been damaged by 6



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Hanks, R. J., and Woodruff, N. P., Influence of wind on water vapor transfer through soil, gravel, and straw mulches: Soil Science, 86 (3), p. 160-164, September, 1958. Hanks, R. J., Bowers, S. A., and Bark, L. D., Influence of soil surface conditions on net radiation, soil temperature, and evaporation: Soil Science, 91 (4), p. 233-238, April, 1961. Harrar, J. G., A pattern for international collaboration in agriculture: Advances in Agronomy, v. 6, p. 95-119, 1954. Technical aid and agricultural chemistry: Agricultural and Food Chemistry, 3 (5), p. 395-398, May, 1955. Hartman, Monroe A., and others, Determining rainfall-runoff-retention relationships: College Station, Tex., Texas Agricultural Experiment Station, 7 p. (MP-404) 1960. In cooperation with the U.S. Dept. of Agriculture. Harza Engineering Company, Review of report on SCARP no. 2 (Chaj Doab) West Pakistan, by Tipton and Kalmbach, Lahore, Pakistan, 5 p., 1961. Hassan, Jamil, A report on chemical fertilizers in Pakistan: U.S. Operations Mission to Pakistan, Industry and Transportation Division, 7 p., 1960. Hayter, P. J. D., The Ganges and Indus submarine canyons: Deep-Sea Research, v. 6, p. 184-186, 1960. Hayward, H. E., and Bernstein, L., Plant-growth relationships on saltaffected soils: Botanical Review, 24, p. 584-635, 1958. Heinz International Research Center and Heinz Research Fellowship of Mellon Institute, Nutritional data, fifth edition: H. J. Heinz Company, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, 137 p., 1962. Heron, A. M., The geology of Central Rajputana: Geol. Survey of India Mem., v. 79, 1953. Hickey, Michael E., Evaluation of plastic films as canal lining materials, interim report: Denver, Commissioner's Off., 6 p., 1957 (U.S. Bur. of Reclamation, laboratory report no. B-25). ----Laboratory and field studies of asphaltic materials for controlling canal seepage losses, paper to be presented at the conference on the use of asphalt in hydraulic construction, Pacific Coast Division, the Asphalt Institute, Bakersfield, California, May 24, 1961: Denver, Bureau of Reclamation, 17 p., 1961. 387



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Chapter 1 use by crops. Blaney and Criddle(2) have given estimates of the effective monthly precipitation by major canal systems in West Pakistan. We have combined these for the Rabi and Kharif seasons (Map 1.5), The effective Rabi precipitation is below three inches, even near the foothills in the northeastern portions of Rechna and Chaj Doabs. During the Kharif season, the isohyet of 11 inches skirts the base of the foothills, and the effective precipitation diminishes along the axes of Bari, Rechna, Chaj, and Thal Doabs. Variations in Rainfall from Year to Year In the northern part of West Pakistan, the orographic influence of the mountains tends to damp out variability from year to year in total rainfall. This, together with the relatively high average annual precipitation, gives cultivators in dry farming areas a reasonable degree of assurance of water for their crops. However, over most of the Former Punjab and Former Bahawalpur, and throughout Former Sind, the low average annual rainfall is accompanied by high year-to-year variability. A detailed analysis is provided in "Analysis of Precipitation Data from Rechna, Chaj, and Thal Doabs.'(3) In Rechna Doab at Bachrianwala, annual precipitation ranged from 0.86 inches to 18.92 inches over the period 1916 to 1959. In Chaj Doab, at Dhaulka, the range was 1.28 to 18.81 inches. However, during seven years out of ten, the annual rainfall varied by a much smaller amount, from 3.5 to 11.8 inches at Bachrianwala, and from 5.0 to 16.6 inches at Dhaulka. Temperature Data from representative stations in West Pakistan on monthly mean maximum and mean minimum air temperatures, and monthly mean relative humidity, are in the Report of the Food and Agriculture Commission of Pakistan.(4) Diurnal ranges in air temperature are large during both summer and winter. In the winter, the Himalayas offer substantial protection against the intensely cold air masses from the vast Asian continent. As a result of radiative cooling, there is, nonetheless, some occurrence of frost over the Indus Plain, but it is seldom severe enough to damage the Rabi Crops. (2) H. F. Blaney, and Criddle, W. D.; "Report on Irrigation Requirements for West Pakistan," Tipton and Kalmback, Inc., Engineers, April 30, 1957. (3) Water and Power Development Authority, Water and Soils Investigation Division, Technical Paper No. 1. 1960. (4) Government of West Pakistan, Karachi, November 1960, p. 570-571. 29



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Chapter 1 Although some damage from salination or waterlogging occurs in all canal-irrigated Districts of the Former Punjab, the problem is most severe in four Districts: Gujranwala, Sheikhupura, Jhang, and Muzaffargarh. The first two, Gujranwala and Sheikhupura, comprising the northern half of the canal-irrigated area of Rechna Doab, contain nearly a million acres of severely saline or waterlogged land. The amount of waterlogged or saline land in Sheikhupura is equal to more than 50 percent of the presently-cultivated area. In Gujranwala, the number of affected acres is over 40 percent of the number of cultivated acres. In both these Districts, part of the damaged land has been abandoned, and part is still cultivated, but we have not been able to find the relative proportions. Perhaps as much as half of the saline land has also suffered severe sodium damage, which has impaired its permeability. Jhang and Muzzaffargarh each contain two areas affected by the confluence of the rivers, at the southern tips of Chaj and Rechna Doabs, and, Bari and Thal Doabs, respectively. Before the beginning of canal irrigation, the water table was fairly close to the surface in these areas because the river confluences effectively dammed the flow of underground water. The situation has been worsened by irrigation, and these two Districts now contain at least 500,000 acres of waterlogged and saline land. Table 1.12 gives estimates of the areas in the various Former Punjab Districts that have been damaged by salination and waterlogging.(29) It will be seenthatatotal of approximately 2.5 million acres is recorded as stricken. This is 20 percent of the canal-irrigated area, and 15 percent of the cultivated area in the Former Punjab Districts within the Indus Plain. (29) These estimates are taken from 'Statistics of West Pakistan, Agricultural Data* issued in November 1958 by the Bureau of Statistics of the Department of Power, Irrigation, and Development of the Government of West Pakistan. Damage due to salinity (called "thur") and to waterlogging (called asem") is reported separately in this publication, but about 97 percent of the damage is attributed to salinity. Salinity damage is defined as "the areas in which white effervescence is apparent on the natural surface during the months of December, January, or February, causing 1/5 of more damage to the crop of the area." Similarly, waterlogging damage is stated to be "the fields rendered unfit for cultivation to the extent of 1/5 or more of the area by their sub-soil moisture." 57



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Page Chapter 8 RESEARCH AND EDUCATION (Continued) (Physical -Biological Research) -Continued Plants for Special Environments -------------------------371 Methods of Cultivation ----------------------------------371 Agricultural Implements_ ------------------------------372 Performance and Design Studies -------------------------373 Canal Linings and Sealants ------------------------------373 Recharge of Aquifer ------------------------------------373 Education and Training -----------------------------------374 Bibliography -------------------------------------------------------376 Appendix A. 1 Potential Evapotranspiration Estimates for West Pakistan, by W. E. Hiatt ---------------------------------------408 Appendix A.2 Quantity of Water Needed for Salinity Control, by C' A. Bower and R. C. Reeve -------------------------413 Appendix A. 3 Reserves of Natural Gas in West Pakistan ----------------415 Appendix A. 5 Response of Agricultural Yields to Water in the Punjab, by R. Dorfman --------------------------------------417 Appendix A.6 Areas of Further Research for Assessing Livestock Alternatives in Pakistan ------------------------------438 Appendix A.8 Outline of Research Needed for Agricultural Development in West Pakistan ------------------------------------443 ILLUSTRATIONS Page 1.1 Relation of Agricultural Yield to Percent of Canal-irrigated Area in the Former Punjab --------------------------------95 3.1 Population Increase and Agricultural Productivity Increase for West Pakistan ---------------------------------------------166 6.1 Cross Section of "Excavated Pond -----------------------------256 6.2 Cross Section of "Surface Pond --------------------------------256 kill



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Chapter 4 research and experiment. It presently has a large staff in SCAR? ONE in Rechna Doab. The powers given to the Board by the Soil Reclamation Act are broad. They authorize engineering application of water and works to reclaim and improve land for cultivation. The powers contemplate research and agricultural extension services in the use of irrigation waters. The failure of the Board to be fully effective and to be chosen in the past for a larger role probably derives from its too deep imbedment in traditional department procedures. This appears to have been an inevitable result of the pattern of Board membership. Use of the Soil Reclamation Board We recommend that the Government of West Pakistan mobilize for agricultural production and general development in the project areas around the powers given to the Board in the Soil Reclamation Act, and that the Board be reoriented and reshaped for an enlarged and more dynamic mission. In organization terms, the Board should be move horizontally in the general structure to a point of better perspective and objectivity with respect to water supply and agricultural production, and vertically to a level of larger responsibility and prestige.. Possibly it should be renamed as the Land and Water Development Board. Specifically, we, recommend the following actions: Reconstitution of the Board In recognition of its larger role, the Board should be reconstituted to include the Secretary of Irrigation, the Secretary of Agriculture, the Chairman of WAPDA and the Chairman of ADC. To these might be added the Secretary for Labor and Cooperatives, the Secretary for Local Government and Basic Democracies, and a Finance member. We urge thatthe Chairman of the Board be a senior official of the rank of Additional Chief Secretary. The Board should report to the Minister of Agriculture, Food and Irrigation. Powers of the Board In addition to its present powers, the Board should have the power to review and reconcile agricultural and water 180



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Appendix A,.5 Rs.186 per gross sown acre; this cropping pattern produces almost exactly -the same. The average irrigation depth in Table 5.6 was 1.67 feet, on the basis of gross area sown; in this table it is rather less,. 1.24 feet. Thus the substantial increase in gross value produced (Rs. 26 crore as against Rs. 16 crore) is due chiefly to the recommended expansion of gross sown acreage from 860,000 acres in Table 5.6 to 1,390,000 acres in Table A.5.4. It should be noted that the water supply assumed to be available in this computation, 2.1 million acre-feet, is much greater than the 1.4 million acre-feet used by the cropping pattern of Table 5.6. It was not deemed worth while, in making this illustrative computation, to deal with the complications that would result from providing sufficient water to wash down salts as discussed in Chapter 2. Since our computation presupposes an agricultural technology that is obsolete and not recommended for future use, more elaborate calculations than the ones we have made did not seem justified and no water was provided for the maintenance of soil condition. 429



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A1 -o I -111 --o --Iz i zx Xm I-.I T II.21 ZI I .* Z 0 0 ZI I I NOTE: () FOR RUNS I -II, INIT IAL GROUND WATER LEVELS ARE THE SAME AS THE FINAL (50yr) ELEVATIONS RESULTING FROM A TYPICAL 50yr SIMULATION WITHOUT PUMPS SURFACE ELEVATIONS AS IN FIGURE (. ( FOR RUNS II AND i GROUND WATER AND SURFACE ELEVATIONS COINCIDE AND ARE EOUAL IN ALL CELLS. MULTIWELL MODEL: WELL LOCATION, 14 RUNS FIGURE 7. 23



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special mention are: Michael Feiring, Hershel L. Fleming, Joseph Harrington, Flora Wang, Peter Naylor, Walter Spofford, Nori Uchida, and Pauline Wyckoff. Above all, we are indebted to Mr. Ghulam Ishaq Khan, Chairman of the Water and Power Development Authority of West Pakistan, and to the many members of his staff who taught us generously and patiently about the problems of land and water in the Indus Plain.



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Chapter 7 Punjab region and Bahawalpur, and 12 million acres of culturable land are commanded in the Former Sind. The actual acreage of crops planted I under irrigation in any given year, however, is less than 80 percent of the canal-aommanded area. The alluvium deposited by the rivers under the irrigation plain extends to depths of many thousands of feet. The actual depths in different regions are not accurately known but they are much greater in the Former Punjab than in the Former Sind. The vast aquifer of the northern irrigation plain is a major national resource. It may be used both to supply and to store huge quantities of water. The alluvium in the~northern plain consists predominantly of unconsolidated medium to fine grained sands. The structure of the deposits is heterogeneous, and lenses of one type of soil grade horizontally and vertically into material of a different grain size. Clay admixtures are relatively rare. They form a minor constituent of deposits in which fine sands and silt predominate. Agriculture in West Pakistan is largely dependent on irrigation. The quantiI4es of water diverted from the rivers are enormous. The water production of the Indus system is twice that of the Nile and over twentyfive times that of the lower Rio Grande. Yet in terms of irrigated area the water supply in the Indus Plain is small. During the last few years, an average of forty-four million acre feet have been diverted annually in the Former Punjab and Bahawalpur and applied to between sixteen and seventeen million acres of land. This is an average of between 2.6 and 2.75 acre feet per year per acre, and is undesirably low from the standpoint of agricultural efficiency. There are irrigated regions in the United States with climatic conditions similar to West Pakistan that divert at a rate in excess of 6 acre feet per acre per year.. Waterlogging and Salinity Despite the low areal rate of diversion, not all the water reaches the crops. A large portion -estimated as high as forty to fifty percent -is lost from the canal distribution system and becomes unavailable for agriculture. Part of this water leaks into the ground. During the past sixty years, this leakage has gradually increased the elevation of the ground water table, and has caused waterlogged conditions over large 260



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Chapter 6 Obviously, the profitability of reclamation will vary with reclamation costs, livestock fertility rates, carrying capacities, livestock prices and interest rates. Using reclamation costs of Rs 30 per acre, a carryingcapacity of 1 animal unit per 24 acres, an interest rate of 6 percent, and a net revenue per lamb of Rs 25, the benefit cost-ratio would be approximately 1lto 1.( 5) Although the calculated ratio is low, current prices may not reflect the economic worth of sheep because of government control of meat prices. Real costs also might be reduced if the reclamation were undertaken as a public works project, using under-employed labor. Account must be taken of these dynamic cost and demand features before final conclusions are reached about the absolute and relative profitability of range investment. The opportunities for producing supplemental forages in the non-irrigated but high water-table areas offer more promising economic returns -(given current reclamation costs and livestock prices). In Former Sind, much of the waterlogging appears to be the result of an inability to drain the percolation of water from irrigated fields. In fringe areas near irrigated cropland, moderate to highly salt-tolerang vegetation could be sown, such as seashore salt grass, common Bermuda grass, inland salt grass, switch grass, Reed's canary grass or certain species of woody plants or trees. (6) These forages, planted in blocks or in interceptor bands, could provide important grazing lands for draft or commercial livestock with no additional water costs. Because there is here relatively more water for forage, the rangecarrying capacities are much greater in these high water-table areas than in the 'dry-land" areas previously described. Limited experience in comparable areas of the southwestern United States indicates that such land could support one animal unit per 4-6 acres over a seven-month grass period. Though supplemental feed or forages would be required for the breeding herd during the dormant period of the grasses, a sevenmonth growing season should be sufficient to "grass-fatten" either beef or gro*ing stock. Seeding investments therefore, would appear to be a profitable investment in these areas, and costs would be recouped within 5 years. (5) The Rs 25 are assumed to include Rs 20 for the carcass value of the animal and Rs 5 for the value of the wool. It is further assumed (1) that the wool clip of the ewe flock pays for the supplemental feed of the ewe flock (2) that on the average, 1 ewe produces 1 lamb per year, and (3) that one ewe plus one lamb equals~ animal unit. (6) Woody plants might also be used for fuel, thereby releasing more animal waste& for fertilizer. 236



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Chapter 2 TECHNICAL MEANS OF ACHIEVING INCREASED AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION It is physically possible for West Pakistan to produce more than adequate supplies of food and fiber for its present population. The climate of the Indus Plain is such that, with irrigation, a wide range of crops can be grown during both winter and summer. Moreover, the Plain contains a large body of land that.. from the standpoint of basic soil properties and topography, is nearly ideal for irrigation agriculture. Surface and ground waters are available for irrigation and, while the supply of water may ultimately limit agricultural production, there are substantial opportunities for its increased utilization. There are three broad methods by which the agricultural production of West Pakistan can be increased. The first is by increasing the yield per acre of land now under cultivation through suitable combinations of improved farming practices; the second is by reclaiming land that has become seriously deteriorated, and, in many cases, abandoned,, because of salinity and waterlogging; and the third is by putting additional large areas under irrigation through the construction of new canal systems. With the first method, the ratio of needed new capital investment to production will be low, returns will be almost immediate, and maximum use can be made of existing management and technical skills. The second method will require additional capital, management and technical skills, and returns will not be immediate. This method can be integrated very advantageously with the first, however. The third method requires large amounts of capital, management and technical skills;the investment is projected into the distant and uncertain future, and, in view of the ultimate deficiency of water, it should be undertaken with caution. Increasing Crop Yields on Land Now Under Cultivation While various factors for increasing yields are discussed individually in the following sections, it should be borne in mind that all are interactive. For example, the five factors to be discussed-more water, fertilizer, pest control, improved seed and crop varieties, and better cultivation-may each increase yields 20 percent when applied singly, but in combinations and with salt-free soil, they might give increases of 200 to 300 percent. 96



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Chapter 6 Diversification and the'West Pakistan Farmer The preceding discussion provides some indication of the problems, the costs and the benefits that can accrue from changing traditional production patterns. Nevertheless, the conclusions derived from the commodity and regional analyses (which by necessity must deal with averages) may be inappropriate recommendations for any particular farm within the region. Since the individual farmer must make most of the changes associated with diversification, new alternatives must be considered at the operating-unit level. For example, in farming areas near sizable urban market areas, the potential income gains from introducing or increasing such enterprises as Fruits, vegetables, berseem, and dairy products appear to be substantial. But, in the *absence of improved transportation facilities, it may be unprofitable for farmers outside the present urban market perimeter to produce these products. A further complication in recommending new enterprise combinations involves marketing facilities. The storage capacity for most agricultural products is quite limited in West Pakistan; therefore, it is not surprising that seasonal variation in the marketing of produce is large. Given the low price elasticity of demand for agricultural products, these variations in supply create even wider seasonal price fluctuations-c art icularly for such cash crops as eggs, fruits, vegetables and berseem.(20) Because price uncertainty weighs heavily in farmers' planning decisions, these fluctuations inhibit the willingness of farmers to test new crops or production programs. In addition to the seasonal variation, there is a problem of projecting longerrun price trends into the future. Commodities that appear to be very profitable at present prices may prove to be unprofitable if production expands significantly and if markets are not broadened. (21) This long-run price is particularly serious for livestock and for tree crops, because of their long (20) For example, a number of farmers in Former Sind reported that price variations of Rs .'75 to Rs 2.00 per maund for cut berseem, and of Rs 2 to Rs 10 per maund for carrots were not uncommon. (21) Bananas in Former Sind may be such an example. While many farmers were reporting net incomes of greater than Rs 2000 per acre, they were very concerned about the price effects of increasing production. 249



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Table 3.3 Tentative Estimate of Personnel Requirements for a One Million Acre Project Director Land and Water Planning Staff Associate Director Senior Junior M/T* 3 6 12 Engineering Agriculture Administration Analysis and Research (1) Water scheduling (1) Supervision of (1) Internal communication (1) Socio-economic measurements and assessments fertilizer and seed (2) Supply and analysis (2) Maintenance and distribution (3) Accounting (2) Hydrologic and meteorolooperation of tubewells (2) Pesticides (4) Transportation gical measurements (3) Salinity measurements (3) Credit, marketing, and (5) Housing (3) Motivation and communication insurance (6) Medical research (4) Extension and reclamation (7) Personnel (4) Experiment and demonstration (5) In service training (8) Records and reporting farms, including tests of plant varieties Senior Junior M/T* Senior Junior M/T* Senior Junior M/T* Senior Junior M/T* (1) 3 6 12 (1) 1 6 45 (1) 0 1 20 (1) 3 7 25 (2&3) 4 12 1 (2) 3 6 30 (2) 1 2 25 (2) 1 5 20 3 7 T 1,212 (3) 2 10 10 (3) 1 2 25 (3) 3 7 8 (4) 15 170 170 (4) 0 2 25 (4) 4 4 4 (5) 1 10 10 (5) 1 10 200 61 220-2 2-(6) 3 11 11 (7) 1 10 25 (8) 2 6 15 Senior Junior M/T* 52 293 1,896 Director, Associate Director, and Assistant Directors 8 *Manual/Technical includes foremen, technicians, clerical, and labor personnel.



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Summary agricultural personnel and the low status of agriculture as a profession, provision of this number of technically trained people will place a great strain on the educational facilities of the Province. Research and Development It will not be suffici ent to achieve a once-over increase in agricultural productivity; agriculture in the Indus Plain must be put on the road to continuous growth. The key to continuous growth is continuous research and the application of its results. The need for better data, additional facts, and new ideas is stressed in every chapter of this Report, but it is emphasized with special urgency in Chapter 8. Most urgently we need increased understanding of the social dynamics of change in an impoverished agricultural community. Which devices for education and persuation are most effective under the conditions of West Pakistan? What kinds of desirable change do the farmers adopt readily, and what kinds do they resist? What factors influence the farmers, readiness and their resistance? Partial answers to these questions will come from the experimental design of the first Project Areas, but fuller understanding can be obtained only by highly specialized sociological re search. Such research is also needed on the factors influencing population growth and the effectiveness of family planning programs. In the long. run, these may have a more important impact on the well-being of Pakistan than the factors influencing agricultural productivity that have been our main concern. Many other problems for research are listed throughout the report. In public health and nutrition, the first step should be obtain better data on human diets in both urban and rural communities, by region, income levels, age and sex. The incidence and economic effects of dysentry, malaria, and deficiency diseases need to be quantified, as do the health aspects of village water supplies. Beside the program of breeding new plant varieties already referred to, agricultural surveys and research need to be conducted on water and fertilizer requirements for different crops on different soils; development, te st, -and evaluation of farm tools and lat er of small farm tractors; develop ment of plant protection measures; and techniques of soil reclamation in the presence of high bicarbonate groundwater and high exchangeable sodium. In engineering and hydrology, early emphasis should be placed on improving tubewell performance and reducing costs and on operational 17



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TIME, yrs 0 10 20 30 40 50 0I I I I I 5 SI0 -SEE FIGURE 9 ii FOR DETAILS -J mn 15 UI1.67 ft/yr S20 < 25 25NOTES. 30 I) DRAIN CAPACITY= 0 o 2) PUMP CAPACITY 35 -SUFFICIENTLY LARGE TO MEET TARGETS ,, IN EACH SEASON 040 -3) SEASONAL TARGETS ARE PROPORTIONAL TO THOSE GIVEN BY TIPTON a AND KALMBACH o45 O45 4) 50 % REDUCTION IN LEAKAGE 50 -ASSUMED 50[ UIT= 2.51 ft/yr ASYE 55 -UT= 2.01 ft/yr EFFECT OF ANNUAL IRRIGATION TARGET, UT, ON RATE OF DRAWDOWN FIGURE 7.24



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Chapter 7 (a) Recharge from canal seepage, 15.3 maf/yr. (b) Mining of ground water: assuming that the average rate of mining is such as to lower the water table 100 feet in 30 years, a total of (0.25) (100/30) (23) = 19.2 maf/yr will be available. (c) Assuming that 15 percent of the tubewell effluent will seep back downward from the water courses and fields to the water table, the actual pumping rate must be (15.3 + 19.2)/ (0.85) = 40.6 maf/yr of which 0.15 (40.6) = 6.1 maf/yr will be recycled from watercourses and other components of the distribution system. (d) Non-beneficial evapotranspiration of tubewell effluent is taken as 5 percent of the total volume pumped: 0.05 (40.6) = 2.0 maf/yr. (e) The amount of tubewell effluent that will be (ultimately) exported to prevent salt build-up 3.45 maf/yr [(0.1) (34.5) = 3.45]. f) Tubewell effluent to the non-saline area for irrigation will be 40.6 -6.1 -2.03.4 = 29.1 maf/yr. 4. Total supply in the non-saline area for agriculture will be 18.6 +29.1 = 47.V maf/yr. Most of this would be used for crops in the non-saline area but a small flow, which is called "y" in the mathematical analysis, may be diverted to the saline area to be used to dilute saline tubewell water from that area. This would be done, however, only if justifiable on the basis of the economic analysis of the mathematical model to be discussed. Therefore, the following flows would be provided: (a) Total irrigation supply in the non-saline area, 47.7 -y maf/yr. (b) Proportion routed to the saline area, y maf/yr. 5. The tubewell pumpage from the saline portion of the aquifer to be applied to crops has the following components: (a) Recharge from canal seepage, 4.7 maf/yr. It is expected that this water would be more saline (1000 to 2000 ppm) than that recovered in the non-saline zone. Non-beneficial evaporation (0.2 maf/yr) and export drainage to prevent salt build -up (0.47 maf/ yr) must be deducted so that useable recharge water would be 4.7 -0.2 -0.47= 4.03 maf/ yr. (b) Mined water to crops in the saline area, z maf/yr. It is assumed that 5 percent of this would be lost in non-beneficial 274



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Chapter 7 minimize the amount of fresh water discharged annually to the Arabian 1Sea. At this time it is assumed that mining of the aquifer will be stopped or reduced. In discussing the first level of development it is pertinent to describe briefly the role of tubewells since these constitute an essential part of the water management system. Three separable kinds of beneficial effects can be expected in greater or less degree from installation and operation of tubewells: washing -out of accumulated salt; increase and stabilization of irrigation water supplies; and lowering of the ground water table. For the area presently under irrigation, the amount of available canal water per acre of irrigated land is insufficient for maximum agricultural productivity and it is insufficient to reverse the rate of salt accumulation in the root zones of the crops. In the large areas where the ground water is not too salty, water pumped from wells can be used for leaching out accumulated salt. It can also be used to supplement canal irrigation water, and thereby to increase the amount of irrigation water per acre or to irrigate a larger area during either or both growing seasons. Furthermore, this water can be available for irrigation at any time during the year, and therefore during seasons when river and canal flow are low. Finally, with continued pumping, the water tables san be lowered so as to provide storage space within the aquifer and to permit regulation of flow between wet seasons and dry seasons, and wet years and dry years. Limitations of Surface and Subsurface Drainage: Surface and subsurface drains are used in controlling the water table and the build -up of salinity in many agricultural regions elsewhere in the world. It would be possible to use them on the Indus Plain in place of tubewells. In the Former Punjab, however, our calculations show that such S"horizontal" drains are not only much more expensive than tubewells for eliminating waterlogging and salinity, but they do not provide the outstanding advantages of the latter -the increase and regulation of the irrigation water supply. In parts of the Former Sind, and a few other zones where "vertical" drainage by tubewells may not be practicable, recourse must be had to horizontal drainage by surface and subsurface drains. With the installation of tubewells, some surface drainage will be needed in the Former Punjab for export of excessively saline ground water, but the amount required will be relatively small. I. First Level of Development A. The following assumptions are made for the entire region (See Figure 7.3): 269



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Asghar, A. G., Experiments at Moharanwala Experimental Reclamation Farm: Punjab, Pakistan (province), Directorate of Land Reclamation, Research Publication, v. 2, no. 2, 1954. -----The extent and increase of Thur in the canal irrigated areas, lower reaches of the Upper Chenab Canal: Punjab, Pakistan (province), Directorate of Land Reclamation, Research Publication, v. 2, no. 2, 1954. -----Land reclamation and its bearing on agricultural economy in West Pakistan: Reprinted from the Papers and Proceedings of the Seminar on the Teachings of Agricultural Economics in Pakistan, Lahore, April 9-12, 1956. -----The problem of salinity and alkalinity of soils and its solution: Pakistan Sci, Conf., Proceedings, 4, p. 46-55, 1952. -----Soil survey and soil classification: Pakistan Sci. Conf., Proceedings, 4, p. 27-33, 1952. -----The soils of Pakistan: International Congress of Soil Science, Transactions, 4 (3), p. 134-141, 1950. -----Use of indigenous sulphur for lowering soil alkalinity: West Pak. Engg. Cong., Proceedings, v. 41, 1957. -----Use of limited water supply: (in Second Regional Irrigation Practice Leadership Seminar) Teheran, p. 49-65, 1959. Asghar, A. G., and Dhawan, C. L., Percolation of water through soils: Punjab Irrigation Research Institute, Research Publication 4 (13), 8, 1945. -----The quality of drain, river and canal waters of the Punjab: Indian Journal of Agricultural Science, 17, 377-388, December, 1947. Asghar, A. G., and Hafeez Khan, M. A., Behaviour of saline-alkaline Punjab soil: West Pak. Engg. Cong., Proceedings, 39, paper 311, 1955. -----Field studies in prevention of soil salinization: Agronomy Jour., 50 (11), p. 667-671, November, 1958, .. Growing of cotton on ridges in reclaimed soils: Pak. Jour, of Sci., 9 (5), p. 219-226, September, 1957. Asghar, A. G,, and Hamid, Abdul, Cotton and sugar cane on saline or partially reclaimed soils: Pak. Jour. of Sci., 5 (2), p. 66-82, April, 1953. -----Importance of soil profile characteristics in the reclamation of saline lands: Pak. Jour, of Sci., 7 (1), p. 35-40, January, 1955. 380



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Chapter 6 These livestock enterprises could be combined with irrigated cropland. In some irrigated areas (particularly in Former Sind) 60-acre units could be established consisting of (say) 10 acres of perennially irrigated cropland and 50 acres of high water-table but non-irrigated fringe land. One alternative would be to pasture flocks or herds on the otherwise unused fringe areas, and to grow cotton, sugarcane or sorghum on the irrigated acres during the kharif season. During rabi, livestock could be removed from pastures and fed on irrigated berseem, sorghum fodder, and sugarcane tops. > A flock of fifty ewes could be carried on the fifty acres of grassland during kharif and these might be expected to raise at least fifty lambs. If the lambs were to be fattened on the farm, 100 sheep would require feed and care through the rabi months. Each animal would need approximately 1 3/4 pounds of TDN (total digestible nutrients) per day.(7y The total requirement for 100 sheep would be 300 mds of TDN for the 4-5 month season. Since rabi fodders yield about 40 maunds of TDN per acre, 74 acres of irrigated production could supply this requirement.(8) The "opportunity-cost" of using rabi water for forage production might be evaluated in terms of the wheat that could be grown with an equivalent amount of resources. Assuming a wheat price of Rs 12.8 per naund, a per acre yield of 12.4 maunds, and a water requirement equal to that of rabi fodder, the "loss" from not growing wheat should be Rs 1190 (7 x12.4x 12.8). However, the "gain" would be the sale of 50 sheep at Rs 25 per head (Rs 1250) plus the wool clip from the ewe flock (50 x Rs 5 = Rs250), minus the amortized cost of pature development-an increase of about 10 to 15 percent above the return earned by wheat. (7) See, Morrison, F. B., Feeds, and Feeding, (22nd ed.), pages 1089 and 1090 for complete nutrient requirements of sheep. (8) Estimated by agronomists from Hunting Technical Services. 237



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Chapter 7 evapotranspiration so that the useable water would be 0.95z. The two parameters, y and z, are numerically determined in the mathematical analysis so that maximum economic efficiency will be achieved. (c) The total rate of mining in the saline area is 2.9 + w rnaf/yr. Here the 2.9 represents the rate of mining required to prevent the movement of saline ground water into the non-saline area [(0.25) (0.5) (100/30) (7) -2.9 maf/yr]; and w is a non-negative variable in the mathematical analysis which allows for an increased rate of mining in the saline zone so as to provide additional water to be diluted with canal water and applied to crops if there is economic justification. (d) Total mined water to be exported from the area is 2.9 + w -z maf/yr. (See Figures 7.4 and 7.5) 6. Total water to crops in the saline area: 5.7+y+4.0+0.95z maf/yr [C2; C4(b); C5(a) and C5(b)]. 7. Mathematical analysis: Calculation of the parameters y and z. (a) The following predications are made as to the salt concentrations of various types of water. Salt concentration Type milligrams per liter Average Upper limit Surface water 250 Ground water Non-saline area 700 2000 Saline area 6000 (b) The following symbols are used: (1) Decision Variables: the following three non-negative variables are defined: y = flow of canal water diverted from the non-saline to the saline area to dilute saline tubewell effluent. (maf/yr). .0.95z = the amount of saline ground water to be diluted with surface water and applied to crops in the saline area. (maf/yr). w = the rate of mining in the saline area in excess of the rate of 2.9 maf/yr required to prevent the movement of saline ground water into the non-saline area. (maf/yr). 275



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Appendix A.8 Category and Type of PriProject No. Study No.1/ ority Description Project 13 A 3 Village needs and uses for electric power a. Small sugar and flour mills b. Machine and wood working tools c. Spinning and weaving d. Communication and battery recharging e. Light and heating f. Other uses II. Economic and social research Project 14 SS 1 Present economic situation of agriA culture a. Economic constraints on the farmers (1) Price and demand elasticity of various crops (2) Marketing conditions and organization (3) Credit mechanisms (4) Economic effects of farm tenure patterns, including share cropping (5) Farm operating costs-seeds, labor, fertilizers, tools, irrigation water, bullocks, farm machinery See footnotes at end of table. 447



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Chapter 3 increased intensity of farming, expansion of the cropped area to previously fallow or unused land, and speedy leaching of salts from the soil, will demand marked changes in farm practices. New water courses will have to be built. Many existing distribution channels will need to be improved or enlarged. Acceptance of clear water in place of the familiar turbid canal water will have to be secured. New cropping patterns and planting schedules will need to be worked out to take full advantage of the additional water. New seeds, and perhaps new crops, will be introduced. Even for this first increment, expanded credit will need to be used effectively by tens of thousands of farmers. The farmers must become aware of a new frontier, after years of decreasing hopes and resources. Each farm family should participate as quickly as possible in the program. Efforts to increase production and yields per acre should start as soon as the tubewells are installed and working. Information, advice, services, and supplies will have to be distributed as rapidly as possible throughout each project area. Rapid and effective dissemination of information among the rural population will be especially difficult. Problems of village isolation.. illiteracy, lack of mass communication media, and shortage or lack of qualified personnel all enormously increase the magnitude of the task. Systems for distributing information and services which have been highly effective in developed agricultural economies will need to be radically modified to be effective in West Pakistan. Several possible approaches to similar problems have been tried in the developing countries, and isolated successes in small areas are a matter of record. No precedent exists, however, for innovation on the scale contemplated in our plan -a million acres a year for twenty-five years. Because of the lack of precedent, we recommend that comparative experiments be undertaken concurrently in each of the first few project areas to test the relative social and economic efficiency of different approaches, either singly or in combination. Each project administration should be alert to successes and failures, and should be prepared to modify its operational programs as findings become available. Motivation of the farmers Success will not occur unless the farmers can be motivated to extend their efforts and to cooperate. Planning goals will remain sterile figures on wall charts. Previous experience in agricultural development efforts in other 136



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Ahmad, Nazir, Irrigation practice in Pakistan with special reference to the design of energy dissipators: Pakistan Jour. of Sci,, Research vol. 5, no. 1, January, 1953. ----Lining of channels, a short review on laboratory tests carried out on various types of lining materials: Proc. Int. Asso. Hyd. Res., 6th meeting at Bombay, 1951. List of published papers and those read in the proceedings of science conference on tube well, ground water, seepage, and canal lining published in various journals: Irrigation Research Inst., Lahore, 11 p., March, 1963. ----List of published papers and those read in the proceedings of science conference on silt and sediment, electrical resistivity, stress analysis and building material: Irrigation Research Inst., Lahore, 14 p., June, 1963. A new approach to soil salinity in West Pakistan: Indus, vol.2, no. 7, p. 14-19, August, 1961. A new conception on the waterlogging and the salinity problems of Rechna Doab: West Pak. Engg. Cong. Symposium on waterlogging and salinity, February, 1959. Pumping ground water; an in-expansive methods printed in Indus, vol. 1, no. I, Jour. of the West Pakistan, Wapda, December, 1960. Present knowledge about factors influencing the discharge of a tube well: Proc. Punjab Engg. Cong. Paper no. 287, vol. 36, 1951. -Problems of canal lining in West Pakistan: 3rd Int. Con. on Irr. & Drainage, 1957. ----Problems of irrigated soil of West Pakistan, Unesco Tashkent Seminar, August, 1962. -Reclamation of million waterlogging area of Rechna Doab: Int. Conf. on Irr. & Drainage, March, 1960. Sediment in rivers of Indus Basin part 1: Pak. Jour. Sci., vol. 8, no. 5, September, 1956. Silt trap efficiency of reservoirs with special reference to Tarbela and Mangla dams: W. Pak. Engg. Cong., April, 1962. -Soil erosion by the Indus and its tributaries: Pakistan Geographical Review, vol. 15, no. 2, p. 5-17, June, 1960. 378



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Page Chapter 1 THE PROBLEM (Continued) (Agriculture -Land, Water, and People in Combination) -Cont. Food and Money Values ---------------------------------40 Growing Seasons and Water Requirements ----------------40 Cropping Pattern and Productivity -----------------------41 Effect of Irrigation -------------------------------------42. Livestock and Poultry ----------------------------------42 Variability in Production, Acreage under Cultivation, and Yield ------------------------------------------43 The Pattern of Land Use --------------------------------43 Changes in Gross Sown Area with Time ------------------45 Marketing and Prices ----------------------------------46 Storage and Transportation -----------------------------48 Credit ------------------------------------------------48 The State of Agriculture and the People's Food Supply ----49 Other Needs for Agricultural Expansion ------------------53 Comparison of Crop Yields with Those of Other Countries_ 54 The Problem of Waterlogging and Salinity -----------------55 Waterlogging and Salinity in Former Bahawalpur ----------58 Waterlogging and Salinity in Former Sind -----------------59 Total Areas of Waterlogged and Severely Saline Land ------62 Effects on Agricultural Production -----------------------62 Future Trends of Waterlogging and Salinity ---------------63. The Problem of Agriculture -------------------------------64 Chapter 2 TECHNICAL MEANS OF ACHIEVING INCREASED AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION -------------------------96 Increasing Crop Yields on Land Now under Cultivation -------96 More Irrigation Water and Its Proper Allocation to the Land --------------------------------------------97 Water Management and Salinity Control -----------------97 Greater Use of Commercial Fertilizers ----------------100 Recent and Planned Use of Nitrogen Fertilizers -----------102 Phosphate Fertilizer -----------------------------------103 Greater Use of Pest Control -----------------------------107 Improved Seed -----------------------------------------107 Greater Utilization of Salt-tolerant Crops ----------------108 Better Cultivati n Tools and Practices, and More Efficient Bullocks ------------------------------------109 Expansion of Agricultural Research and Education ---------109 Further Agricultural Diversification ---------------------110 Increasing Production by Reclaiming Deteriorated or AbandonedSaline Land -------------------------------111 VIII



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Chapter 3 modified in the direction of more valuable but more water-demanding crops, giving an increase in average value per acre of about 5 percent. Moderate application of nitrogen fertilizer would result in an average yield increase of 25 to 30 percent, not only for the present cropping pattern, but in the increased gross sown area and for the more valuable crops. For these given percentages. the minimum increase is 103 percent: (1.10)(1.07)(1.30)(1.05)(1.25) -1.00 = 1.03, and the maximum increase is 164 percent: (1.20)(1.15)(1.40)(1.05)(1.30) -1.00 =1.64. Much greater increases could be obtained, given adequate water, by larger investments in fertilizer, including both nitrogen and phosphate, use of better seeds and pesticides, and improvement in agricultural techniques. In accordance with the principle of interaction described in Chapter 2, the yield increase should be more than the cumulative one computed in the previous paragraph. When all the factors of production are used in proper combination, the yield response is much larger than the sum of the responses to each separately. Side by side with a strong emphasis on increasing production of lands that have not yet been seriously damaged by waterlogging and salination, an early attempt should be made to reclaim salinated, but not waterlogged, land. For most crops, agricultural production will be increased by removing the slat from the soil. By the use of water pumped from wells, salt can be leached out of the soil and washed downward into the water table rapidly and cheaply. If the salinated soil has not been rendered impermeable by sodium damage, the resulting increase in agricultural production will take place faster than increases which would result from improved agricultural practices. It will take time to introduce these. As agricultural production is lowest on badly salinated soils, a greater increase in total production can be obtained from these lands than from non-salinated soils, because we are starting from a lower 7 base level. Distribution of salinated lands is very patchy and irregular, and it is, therefore, difficult to concentrate improvement activities only on non-saline land without covering saline land also. There are several reasons for not making an initial effort on waterlogged land. Bad land protects good land. When the water table is close to the surface, evaporation from the aquifer can only be sustained by inflow of ground or surface water from adjacent non-waterlogged lands. Hence the present high evaporation from waterlogged areas greatly slows down, and may soon stop the rise in the water table in non-waterlogged areas. 140



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Page Chapter 2 TECHNICAL MEANS OF ACHIEVING INCREASED AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION (Continued) The Principle of Interaction -------------------------------114 Schedule for Increasing Production -------------------------115 Chapter 3 A PLAN OF ACTION -------------------------------------129 The Need for a Reorientation of Effort ----------------------129 Concentration on a Series of Limited Project Areas ----------130 Size of the Project Areas -------------------------------131 Timing -----------------------------------------------131 Hopeful Factors -----------------------------------------132 Difficulties and Problems ---------------------------------133 Land Tenure and Farm Fragmentation -------------------133 Inadequacy of Irrigation Water ---------------------------134 Difficulty of Drainage ----------------------------------134 Lack of Development in Other Sectors of the Economy ------134 Necessary Conditions for the Success of the Plan ------------135 Support by the Provincial Government --------------------135 Communication with the Farmers ------------------------135 Motivation of the Farmers ------------------------------136 Problems of Heterogeneity ------------------------------138 Administration -------------------------------------------138 Selection of Project Areas in the Former Punjab ------------139Project Areas in Former Sind -----------------------------142 The Factors of Production ---------------------------------142 Water for Irrigation ------------------------------------142 Fertilizer ---------------------------------------------145 Improved Seeds ----------------------------------------148 Pest Control and Plant Protection -----------------------149 Improved Practices ------------------------------------150 Intensifying Agricultural Production -----------------------150 The Frontline Services ---------------------------------150 Trials of Different Methods for Introducing Innovation ------152 Data Collection and Analysis ----------------------------153 Agricultural Credit.. Insurance, and Storage ---------------153 Schedule of Activities ------------------------------------157 First Year ---------------------------------------------v 157 Second Year -------------------------------------------157 Third Year --------------------------------------------157 Fourth Year -------------------------------------------158 Financing and Staffing ------------------------------------158 Ix



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Table 3.1 Wheat and Rice Production in Five Districts of the Former Punjab Wheat -Area (in thousands of acres) District 1949-50 1950-51 1951-52 1952-53 1953-54 1954-55 1955-56 1956-57 1957-58 1958-59 Lahore 199 227 231 192 227 311 317 318 319 365 Montgomery 571 645 619 534 601 640 696 660 650 690 Lyallpur 696 681 699 621 652 644 680 723 719 738 Multan 849 894 731 745 804 841 979 .872 930 901 Shahpur 511 540 584 468 541 576 561 566 574 590 TOTAL 2,826 2,987 2,864 2,560 2,825 3,012 3,233 3,139 3,187 3,284 10 year average = 2,992 (thousand acres) 5 year average = 3,171 (thousand acres) Average increase over last 5 year period -5.8%. 0 Wheat -Production (in thousands of tons) Lahore 71.7 86.7 77.1 46.8 98.5 106.5 96.3 102.7 104.6 126.0 Montgomery 310.5 353.2 291.4 178.1 322.7 282.1 285.0 260.5 255.5 283.8 Lyallpur 393.5 400.9 305.0 263.7 350.7 302.7 305.1 344.2 341.6 346.4 Multan 468.1 456.8 313.6 278.3 394.0 321.7 329.5 375.0 402.0 440.5 Shahpur 248.1 233.9 196.1 146.5 192.5 191.8 207.2 202.6 202.6 216.7 TOTAL 1,491.9 1,531.5 1,183.2 913.4 1,358.4 1,204.8 1,223.1 1,285.0 1,306.3 1,413.4 10 year average = 1,291 (thousand tons) 5 year average = 1,283 (thousand tons) Average decrease over last 5 year period = 0.7%.



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Summary analysis of the kinds of data needed to assess hydrologic and soil changes. As the program of groundwater exploitation progresses, long-range studies to improve the mechanism for groundwater recharge, to reduce non-beneficial evapotranspiration, and to control canal seepage will also be needed. 18



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Table 5.19 Possible Effects of Additional Irrigation Water from Tubewells on Agricultural Production in Khairpur Commodity Acreage Value (Rupees) Increase (Decrease) in Acreage Model lB Present Pattern Rice (10,870) Cotton (27,180) Sorghum 15,600 870,000 15,600 (11,840) Summer Fodder 20,600 0 7,500 8,350 Summer Vegetables (1,290) Wheat 47,200 5,670,000 33,700 (9,750) Gram (17,340) Oilseeds 42,800 5,780,000 31,930 Winter Fodder 16,500 0 6,000 (7,310) Winter Vegetables 45,200 7,010,000 43,390 Sugarcane 64,100 29,170,000 60,990 Orchards 17,200 5,500,000 17,200 8,090 Meat Production 31,400 1,570,000 13,800 17,400 (animal units) Milk Production 510,000 7,640,000 216,600 (5,000) (maunds) Work Livestock 35,000 10,400 8,000 (head) Total value of Production 63,210,000 Gross Sown Area 269,200 Cultivated Area 233,000 Value / Commanded Rs. 244 Acre Value of output as percent 217 percent of present Tubewell water-Acre ft/ 123,000 year 231



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Chapter I A minimum of several months is usually required to obtain farm loans from one of these government lending institutions. Although the official interest rate is as low as 7 percent, other payments to obtain the loan may bring the actual rate up to 15 percent or more. Loans must be secured by a clear title to the farmer's land, which means that to obtain a loan the farmer must place his basic security in jeopardy. Because of the fragmented pattern of ownership among families, the consent of a considerable number of people must be obtained before the security is valid. A large fraction of rural credit must be used to meet the farmers' expenses for weddings and other traditional and essential social needs. The State of Agriculture and the People's Food Sup2ly Pakistan presents the disheartening picture of an agricultural nation that cannot feed itself. During the decade of the 1950's its food situation steadily worsened, for farm production lagged behind population growth. The average yearly agricultural production in West Pakistan over the decade from 1949 to 1959 was sufficient to provide foods with an energy content of less than 2,000 calories a day for 36.5 million people. (Table 1.14021) By 1960, the population had increased 16 percent, while food crop production had risen only 10 to 12 percent. A similar -situation existed in East Pakistan. To make up the deficit, food grains and other agricultural products equivalent to about 10 percent of the country's agricultural production are now being imported. In 1960, the value of food imports was nearly 25 percent of the total value of all goods brought into the country (Table 1. 15). But even with these imports, the energy content of the average human diet in West Pakistan is lower than it was twenty years ago. (22) Because of the rising need for energycontaining foods for human beings, it has probably not been possible to (2 1) The estimates for various sources of animal protein in Table 1. 14 are quite uncertain, because we, have been unable to find satisfactory information on either meat or milk production in West Pakistan. In any case,, it is almost certain that production of animal protein is not increasing, because of the need to concentrate on plant crops which yield more calories per acre, and per acre foot of water, than do animal foods. (22) U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, "Indices of Agricultural Production for the Far East and South Asia", Washington, 1962. 49



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Chapter 3 often farmed by several. At times of soil preparation and harvest, not only must the farmer travel, but also his bullocks. For these underfed animals this represents an additional expenditure of energy for non-useful purposes. After tubewells are installed, and the farmers attempt to increase the intensity of cultivation by utilizing the additional water, the time required for harvesting the previous crop, preparing the soil for the new crop, and sowing, may stretch beyond the critical sowing period or the water delivery date. The small size of holding can have a gravely inhibiting effect on the introduction of changed procedures. Because of the bare subsistence level at which they live, the farmers are reluctant to experiment by trying new varieties of seeds, or in any other way altering their traditional methods. They literally cannot afford to take the chance of losing any fraction of their small harvests. Inadequacy of irrigation water Presently available water supplies are inadequate for intensive development of most of the land under cultivation, and much of the cropped area receives insufficient water to prevent the accumulation of injurious salts. Unfortunately, adequately large sites that can be economically developed for surface storage of excess river flows are scarce. Difficulties of drainage For the applied irrigation water, t he minimizing of salination is complicated by the flat slpe of the land, which makes drainage difficult. Lack of development in other sectors of the economy Because of the low level of basic industrial development and the lack of a technical infrastructure, construction and operation of fertilizer plants and electric power systems are costly, especially in foreign exchange. Foreign exchange costs for construction of economically large tubewells are also high. Roads, trucks, and communications facilities in the rural areas are completely inadequate for modern agriculture. Present methods of distribution and marketing seriously limit the potential benefits to the farmers from increased production. 134



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280 I--LJ 3/ 240 _____ 200 ___ __ (_)-j 160_ _ I-< Z> U 0 ___ ___ 00 Co _j 0 lr_; 2 Z_ --0/0 P e f80E 40 0O0 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 TIME FROM START OF FIRST MILLION-ACRE PROJECTIN YEARS Figure 3. 1 Population Increase and Agricultural Productivity Increase for West Pakistan



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Chapter 4 and a firm understanding as to the full support of government agencies. Within the organizational arrangement there should be provision for review and reconciliation of basic water and agricultural policies. There should be full decentralization and unqualified control of the water supply and agricultural personnel in the project area. Relevant service and research facilities of other government agencies should be dedicated to project support without necessity of duplication, Public Administration Background Pakistan-a young nation-inherits a rich and long experience in public administration. We are -told of town planning in .5,000 year old Moheunjo-]Daro and of evidences of public financial management. In the great period of Akbar there was reform of the revenue system and a scientific assessment of land revenue. There was a concept of career service and a system of personnel classification. Of special interest was the division of the empire using terminology that is current today-province, division and district. Perhaps most persistent and fundamental in the long administrative experience has been the emphasis on village administration built around the headman, accountant and watchman. The deep roots of government in Pakistan reach down to the villages and the cultivators. Upon this foundation has risen the governmental structure of todayprincipally influenced by British blueprints. These in turn evolved out of East India Company days, through a steady succession of Acts to the constitutional framework of the India Act of 1935. Most of this tradition and framework was adopted by the Government of Pakistan in the hurried transition of the Independence Act of 1947. The inheritance was effective in terms of the purposes for which it was fashioned--a government focused on law, and order and upon revenue administration-a system designed strictly to control the administrative process and to concentrate authority. It is obvious, however, that the governmental arrangements were not created for a new sovereignty urgently occupied with accelerated social and economic development. One clear asset of the new government was a small core of senior administrators trained and ready to occupy the principal posts of administrative leadership. They were seasoned in counseling on policy and administrative planning. This distinguished group was largely the product of the 169



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Appendix A.8 KCategory and Type of PriProject No. Study No.! ority Description IL. Agriculture Project 6 (continued) E 1 c. Possibilities of "saw tooth"' leaching of farm fields. Project 7 E 1 Fertilizer requirements for different crops and soils a. Yields as a function of N, P, and K applied to different soils b. Effects on yields of timing and mode of application of fertilizers c. Interactions of irrigation level, fertilizer treatment, soil condition, seed variety, etc. Project 8 E 2 Development, test and evaluation of small farm tractors a. Comparative studies of costs and performance of available British, German, Japanese and American small farm tractors under West Pakistan conditions (1) Power required to prepare different soils for planting different crops (2) Field studies of reliability and maintenance problems (3) Fuel and spare parts requirements and costs b. Improvements in design based on field studies See footnotes at end of table. 445



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A Appendix A. 6 36. What control points are there in the marketing system with regard to: a. Inspection for disease control? b. Slaughter control? c. Wholesale and retail quality controls? d. Wholesale and retail price controls? 37. What are freight costs from supply areas to markets? 38. What use is made of by-products such as: a. Wool? b. Hides? c. Pharmaceuticals? d. Hair? e, Hooves? f. Bone? g. Blood? 39. Who harvests the wool, meat and hides, and what prices are received at each level in the marketing process? 40. With regard to range reclamation, what are the: a. Yields to be anticipated over time? b. Best varieties and costs of grasses? c. Best methods and costs of propagation? d. Best methods and costs of seeding? 41. What are the rainfall and irrigation water distributions within and between years? 441



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Chapter 1 0.57 million acres, of which 0. 15 million acres are canal irrigated, lies in Mianwali District south of the Salt Range. To the south of the piedmont area, level and rolling sand plains totalling 2.8 million acres extend across the northern edge of the desert and down its western flank for 150 miles. Parts of these wind-blown lands are being rapidly brought under canal-irrigated cultivation. Chaj Doab contains part of the active flood plains of the Jhelum and Chenab Rivers, covering 0.29 million acres. Meander flood plains totalling 1.21 million acres extend inward to the bar, called the Kirana Bar, to the south, and the Phalia Bar to the north, which stretches from 40 miles above Trimmu to the upper Jhelum canal, and occupies 0.96 million acres. All of the bar, as well as parts of the meander flood plains, is, irrigated by perennial canals. A small area of meander flood plain near the southern tip of Chaj Doab is not cultivated, and the remaining area has non-perennial canal irrigation, supplemented in the winter by well water. North of the upper Jhelum canal in Gujrat District is a piedmont plain. It has some areas of Persian Well irrigation, but is mostly dry cropped. Meander and cover flood plains together comprise 4.35 million acres in Rechna Doab, and the active flood plains of the Ravi and the Chenab within this Diab cover 0.57 million acres. The "Sandal Bar," containing 2.00 million acres, mostly in Lyallpur District, is watered by perennial canals and is the most intensively cultivated and productive part of Rechna Doab. The northern half of the bar is surrounded by a meander flood plain which occupies a large part of Sheikhupura District. Most of Gujranwala and Sialkot Districts consist of cover flood plain. Non-perennial canals water a large part of Gujranwala, and only Persian Wells are used for Irrigation in Sialkot. Bari Doab consists chiefly of a broad and featureless cover flood plain containing 5.16 million acres, but the long narrow Ganji Bar, covering 1.44 million acres in West Pakistan, extends from east of Multan to beyond the Indian border south of Lahore. Almost all of the bar and part of the surrounding plain receive perennial canal irrigation. Most of the remainder of the Doab is covered by non-perennial canals. The three major exceptions are the active flood plain of the Sutlej, which extends for the entire length of the Doab; the active flood plain of the Ravi, which extends for about 100 miles southwest from the Indian border, and the active flood plain of the Chenab cum Jhelum below its junction with the Ravi north of Multan. These three summer-flooded areas contain 0.70 million acres. On the right bank of the Indus, oposite Thal Doab, two relatively small areas of meander flood plain cover 0.5 million acres in D. I. Khan and 26



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Table 1.13 (Continued) (1) Districts with relatively small waterlogging and salinity damage. (Z) Districts with relatively large waterlogging and salinity damage. (3) Districts with developing canal systems. Source: Compiled from Statistics of West Pakistan, Agricultural Data by Division and District, 1947-48 through 1958-59; Bureau of Statistics, Planning and Development Department, Government of West Pakistan; Lahore; December 1960. 85



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Table 5.3 Sufficiency of Water Supply For Major Crops Planted Rabi Kharif Canal 1955-56 1956-57 1957-58 1956-57 1957-58 CBD 96 100 100 77 100 LBD 100 100 100 73 98 Upper Chenab 85 100 100 87 72 Lower Chenab 87 100 100 84 72 Upper Jhelum 100 100 100 95 100 Lower Jhelum 100 100 100 87 73 Pakpattan 83 100 97 100 91 Dipalpur 69 100 100 Mailsi 79 100 100 Haveli 93 100 100 78 77 Rangpur 100 100 100 100 Source: Our computation Unreliable data 215



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Chapter 7 correlation coefficient; (2) the rate of siltation -with concomitant loss of live and dead storage -cannot be closely estimated; (3) our estimates of the efficiency of storage have been calculated on the basis of imprecise estimates of the marginal benefits of Rabi water relative to Kiharif water (See discussion in Chapter 5). Optimal target drafts at the canal-heads for agriculture during the different seasons are closely related to economically efficient cropping patterns. At the present time it is not possible to delineate accurately the relative value of Rabi and Kharif diversion. Our calculations have been predicated on the assumption that Rabi water from reservoirs will have a high marginal utility, especially in the Former Sind where in some regions twelve-month cropping is possible. Our calculations in the water balance have taken into consideration estimates of the effect of desiltation in reservoirs upon the magnitude of bank storage and ground water recharge of the rivers, and on recharge of ground water from the distribution system below the canal heads. While the magnitude of these effects cannot be predicted accurately we believe they are likely to be significant. Therefore in our analysis of the water and salt balance in the northern plain we have used the firm diversion (45 maf/yr) rather than the average diversion (48 maf/yr) in order not to underestimate the required investment in tubewells and appurtenant structures. Water Budget for Future Development In this section an analysis is made of the amount of water that can be made available for increased agricultural production and the control of salination. Although we are convinced that economic development should be continuous over the next several decades, for the purpose of setting out our hydrological considerations it is convenient to discuss two levels of development. In the first level it is assumed that the construction associated with the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960 will be carried forward and, moreover,. that large networks of tubewells will be installed in the Former Punjab to recapture distribution system leakage and to mine the aquifer. It is further assumed that few, if any, new barrages for perennial irrigation will be built on the rivers. This level of development will be reached in perhaps fifteen or twenty years and will use river diversion in amounts not greatly exceeding those of the recent past. At the second level it is assumed that the diversions from the three western rivers -the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab -will be increased and that this will be accomplished by increasing the amount of surface and ground water storage for river regulation to the ultimate practical degree of development so as to 268



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ESTIMATED EFFECTIVE PRECIPITATION by CANAL SYSTEM (After BlaneyCriddle) Table "16, T & K Report of April 30, 1957 dashed lines = Rabi season ', 1 ATTOCK so lid = K h a rif s e a s o n o, r. 11pore DERA ISMKIL KHAN m MMI ANWALI us E ?<( ..CANAL o R41VA4PINDI TB A L Q A D,, \H D cA~,or E MSH UR1 E A A T AR E DRA CAMUZAFFARGAR Iea A NGPUR CANAL C WOR woWsANG C H J O A B V JHLm MULTAN ms HIMYAR KHANL LYALLPUR --ionx UJRT o ~L ER CH -B CAtAL AHAWALPUR R C NA DO0A1B It GUJRANWALA MONTGOMERY $HEKISPURA SIALKOT r C NAL BALLowI AEA '1 AWALNAGl DO uAIMNKE O ,, WeRKS D/PALPq AN I NAL M AP 1.5



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Pithawalla, M. B., A physical and economic geography of Sind (the lower Indus Basin): Sindhi Adabi Board, Karachi, 1959 Porter, L. K., and others, Chloride diffusion in soils as influenced by moisture content: Soil Science Society of America, Proceedings, 24 (6), p. 460-463, November-December, 1960. Porter, Richard C., The inflationary implications of crop failure: The Pakistan Development Review, 2 (1), p. 23-46, spring, 1962 Portland Cement Association, Lining irrigation canals: Chicago, 32 p., 1957. Punjab Irrigation Research Institute, Soil deterioration in the canal irrigated areas of the Punjab: Lahore, 3 v. (Its Research Publication, v. 4, no. 7-9) 1935-37. Contents--Pt. I. Equilibrium between Ca and Na ions in base exchange reactions by E. McKenzie Taylor, Amar Nath Puri and A, G. Asghar. Pt. II. Relation between degree of alkalization and dispersion co-efficient in deteriorated soils by A. G. Asghar, Amar Nath Puri and E. McKenzie Taylor. Pt. III. Formation and characteristics of soil profiles in alkaline alluvium of the Punjab, by Amar Nath Puri, E. McKenzie Taylor and A. G. Asghar. The Punjab Soil Reclamation Act, XXI, 1952, an act to provide for the speedy reclamation and improvement of the areas damaged by Thur and Sem and for preventing further damage: 48 p., 1952. Qadir, S. A., Village Dhanishwar -three generations of man-land adjustment in an East Pakistan village: Comilla, East Pakistan, 126, 35 p., 1960 (Pakistan Academy for Village Development, Technical Publication no. 5). Qureshi, M. Rahimullah, Shrimp fisheries of Pakistan: (in IndoPacific Fisheries Council) Proceedings, 6th session, Tokyo, Japan, September 30-October 14, 1955, Bangkok, Section IIE, p. 359-362, 1956. -----Prawn fisheries in Sind: Karachi, Govt. Press, 2 p., 19_. Rab, Abdur, Acreage, production and prices of major agricultural crops of West Pakistan (Punjab), 1931-59: Karachi, 73 p. 1961 (Institute of Development Economics, Statistical Papers no. 1). Rahim, S. A., Diffusion and adoption of agricultural practices, a study of pattern of communication, diffusion and adoption of improved agricultural practices in a village in East Pakistan: Comilla, 76 p., 1961 (Pak. Academy for Village Development, Technical Publication no. 7). Rahman, Mustaqur, Irrigation and field patterns in the Indus Deltal Ph. D. Dissertation, Department of Geography and Anthropology, Louisiana State University, (Unpublished) 1960. 397



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Chapter 1 Technical Services(33) show that, out of 3.7 million acres under canal command, the soil over 1.7 million acres is non-saline or slightly saline (average salt content in the top 3 feet of soil is less than 0.25 percent); in 1.0 million acres the soil is moderately saline (salt content less than 0.4 percent); while in 1.0 million acres the soil contains more than 0.4 percent salt, and cultivation is unprofitable or impossible. About 2.4 million acres are actually cultivated in the three right bank Districts of Lar'ana, Jacobabad, and Dadu, at a cropping intensity close to 100 percent. The cultivated area is just about equal to the area of non-saline to moderately saline land. According to WAPDA, the problem of drainage and leaching to reduce the soil salinity in the rice-growing part of the region can probably best b-e solved by constructing shallow surface drains. In the areas of perennial canal irrigation, deep drains may also be necessary. As pointed out in Chapter 2, continuation of rice culture in these permeable soils is highly unpromising and other crops which do not require standing water should be substituted for rice. The other major region of waterlogging and salinity in the Former Sind is the Lower Sind Plain and the Indus Delta. Together these form a large triangle with its apex at Hyderabad and its base along the high tide line. The area is under the command of the new Ghulam Mohammed Barrage canal system, and. is still being developed, largely for rice cultivation, with non-perennial irrigation. The southeastern and southwestern corners of the triangle, containing about 1.5 million acres, are near sea level, and hence the pre-irrigation water table tends to stand within eight to fifteen feet of the surface. The south central part is higher, but is nevertheless a vast expanse of saline waste. Throughout the southern part of the triangle, salt efflorescence tends to form everywhere on uncropped land. Although the level of ground water fluctuates from season to season, permanent swamps and marshes lie in many depressions, and the entire southern two thirds of the triangle, making up a total of about 2.3 million acres, is mapped as saline. About 1.1 million acres in the northern third of the triangle contain coarse-textured and more permeable soils, and high soil salinity and waterlogging are less common here. Out of 2 million acres which will be under command of the Ghulam Mohammed canal systems, Hunting Technical Services has mapped 35.4 percent, or (33) Sukkur-Gudu-Ghulam Mohammed Drainage and Salinity Control Project Report No. 9; Hunting Technical Services-Sir M. MacDonald and Partners; London 196160



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Table 2. 9 (Continued) (3) Ml a Preplanting irrigation only. Rainfall was 11. 30 inches from planting to harvest. M4 = Preplanting irrigation plus 4-inch irrigations on August 12 and 30. (4) Wet u Irrigated when mean tension reached 150-200 cm HZO. Medium = Irrigated when mean tension reached 600 cm HzO. Dry = Tension exceeded 600 cm HZO one-third of time. (5) Yield would be practically nil at all moisture levels with no applied nitrogen. References: Marquis Wheat: Tempest, J. S., and Snelson, W. H.: Irrigation practice and water requirements for crops in Alberta; Dept. Interior, Canada; Irrig. Series Bull. 7, 1930. Banner Oats: Ibid Concho Winter Wheat: Unpublished data of M. E. Jensen and W. H. Sletten in F. G. Viets, Jr., Adv. Agron. 14, 1962. Grain Sorghum: Ibid Cotton: Hamilton, J., Stanberry, C. O., and Wooten, W. Soil Sci. Soc. Am. Proc. 20: 246-252, 1956. 127



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Table 1.7 Average Agricultural Production in est Pakistan by Crops Ten years, fram 1949-50 to 1958-59 Crop goss area son(1) Tigld(1) Va ue(2) yield(1) Value(2) Calacies(3) per 10* acres % 10 tons 10 as % per acre per acre acre per day lbs. s Food Grains Rice (cleaned) 2.42 7.4 .82 251 6.3 760 103 3,400 Wheat 10.78 33.2 3.47 1,115 27.9 720 103 3,200 Barley 0.47 1.4 .13 31 0.8 600 65 2,500 Jowar (sorghum) 1.24 3.8 .25 69 1.7 445 55 1,900 Bajra (millet) 2.18 6.7 .34 101 2.5 345 46 1,500 Maize (corn) 1.04 3.2 .42 125 3.1 j89 121 3,900 Total Food Grains 18.14 55.7 5.42 1,692 42.3 670 93 Other Food Crops Gram (chick peas) 2.76 8.5 .60 178 4.5 485 64 2,200 Other pulses (legumes) 1.15 3.5 (.20) (58) (1.4) (380) (50) 1,700 Oil seeds 1.29 4.0 .20 128 3.2 340 99 1,300 Cotton seed same as cotton .55 407 10.2 365 121 800 Cane sugar (raw sugar) 0.74 2.3 .854 384 9.6 2,580 522 9,900 Fruits 0.25(4) 0.8 .72(4) 282 7.1 6,340 .,114 3,100 Vegetables and other crops 0.84 2.6 -(167) 4.2 -(200) 1,000 Fibers Cotton 3.34 10.3 .28 204 5.0 185 61 Fodder 3.93 12.1 (28.88) (393) 9.8 (16,450) (100) 2,700(6) Tobacco 0.07 0.2 .04 106 2.7 1,360 1,452 Total 32.51 100.0 8.84(5)3,999 100 123



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~TUBEWELL 0.0 .004 .016 .035 .062 .098 .141 .9 .20316.391 473 .562 .660 .766 .879 1.0 0 r 0.0 .033 .078 .14.o-.170 .216.4 .313.367 .425 '.489 .58.633 .715 .80 .898 1. + + + -59.3 59 61 .693,--.659 716/ .79 .847 .921 1.0 ++ + ++ + + + + ++ +2 CA) 7I63 .1,,4 7 3 .80 .5 8 6 .4 h .667 .664-.659-.655-.654-.657--664-66 6693 .7I1.574 .773 +81 +85 386.4 I097-.9 5 96.8 89.86r--858--860866.876 .890 .96.948 .973 1.0 ++ + + ++ + + + + 4 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 [.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 160 1;0 1-0 5 --1 0 3 4 5 8 9 /0 1I 2 /3 14 15 16 lZ Fig. 7.17 NUMERICAL SOLUTION OF 5 BY 16 FLOW NET: TEN STREAM TUBES



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Chapter 7 Economic Analysis of Spacing of Tubewells in the Northern Plain The cost analyses summarized in Table 7.5 show that~the ratio of capital costs and operating costs can be varied over a wide range by changing the spacing and number of tubewells per million-acre project. When the spacing is increased, capital costs are reduced both because fewer tubewells are required and because of economies of scale in equipment and installation costs. On the other hand since the ground water must travel longer distances to the wells, friction losses and power costs are increased. The three designs of Table 7.5 may be compared on the basis of the present value of the time stream of initial and future costs C cc +vcm where v rl [1 -(1+r)-TI With a 6 percent (r 0.06) discount rate and a time horizon of 30 years, this ranking function for economic efficiency indicates that the intermediate design of tubeWell -spacing (7350 feet; 1239 acres per tubewell) has the lowest cost. However, it is not possible on the basis of data presently available to ascertain the optimal distance between wells. The proper average spacing for individual projects must be determined from detailed investigation of local aquifer characteristics and of regional costs of canal enlargement and drainage. A substantial difference may be expected in the optimal spacing in the final designs of different projects. While the data of Table 7.5 cannot be used to estimate the optimal spacing definitively, the calculation is important in that it shows that a high degree of flexibility inheres in our plan for adjustment between capital costs and deferred operating costs. This design flexibility may be exploited to accord with interest rates and economic time horizons set by the national planning level. Costs of Tubewell Systems in the Former Sind As stated in item TE of the Water Budget, it appears on the basis of present information that extensive use may be made of tubewell systems in Former Sind to augment the water supply. While sufficiently detailed field data are not available to estimate costs precisely, it is probable that the overall cost of tubewell water per unit of irrigated area in the southern plain will be 25 to 40 percent larger than in the northern plain. This is true because of the shallow depth of the aquifer (mining is generally not possible), the poorer quality of the ground water, and the length of drainage channels needed inseveral areas. In the major part of Former Sind, where the underground water is salty a combination of tubewells and conveyance channels to return saline water to the Indus is necessary. Here the size of the project 325



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Table 1.18 Agricultural Productivity in Different Countries and Regions Compared with Pakistan* Average Yield per Acre for 1958-59 as Percent of 1958-59 Average for Pakistan Sugar Rice Wheat Barley Sorghum Corn Cotton Cane Tobacco (Jowar) (Maize) Lint Raw Sugar India 99 94 114 -68 48 -47 Egypt 282 301 352 -196 283 Japan 337 295 324 -207 --137 Mexico 145 193 114 -79 243 -57 USSR -120 149 -178 342 -69 Eastern Europe 188 193 248 -170 138 -62 Western Europe 368 250 340 -223 --78 United States 268 211 238 463 306 530 750 117 *Calculated from Table 1.17. 92



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Chapter 7 recharge will be smaller than in the non-saline area owing to the operational difficulties that will be encountered in skimming a relatively shallow layer of fresh water from a deep layer of saline ground water. In addition to pumping to recover recharge, the aquifer in the saline area would be mined. This would be done for two reasons: (1) to lower the water table so as to decrease the hydraulic gradient in the direction of the non-saline area, thereby reducing the hazard of movement of salt into this area; and (2) to provide additional water which can be diluted with canal water and used in agriculture (in the mathematical analysis this quantity is called z). In (1) it is assumed that the rate of lowering of the ground water would be 50 Percent of that in the non-saline area. In (2) it is assumed that to provide an adequate amount of canal water for dilution of saline tubewell effluent, a somewhat larger proportion of the total available canal flow should be routed to the saline area than would be supplied on the basis of the relative areas of the two zones. In the mathematical analysis the optimal degree of salinity of the mixture of canal and pumped water is calculated. Water mined in accordance with purpose (1) and riot used in purpose (2) would be exported, for example, to salt lagoons. A portion of the water pumped in the non-saline zone must be exported to prevent an excessive accumulation of salt. It is predicated that at the end of the first level of development this export-flow would be 3.5 maf/yr. During the first decade of development a substantially smaller export flow (0.5 to 1.5 maf/yr) would be needed. The rate of salt accumulation and the effect on downstream regions of exported saline water is examined in subsequent sections of this chapter. In accordance with the foregoing assumptions the following calculations are made: 1. The total recharge of 20 maf/yr in the entire aquifer of 30 million acres (ma) is divided into two parts as follows: in the non-saline area, 15.3 maf/yr [(23/30)20 = 15.3] and in the saline area, 4.7 maf/yr [(7/30)20 =4.7 ]. (See Figures 7.4 and 7.5). 2. Water from the distribution system applied to crops [BI Wc and C] in proportion to relative areas amounts to the following: in the non -saline area, 18.6 maf/ yr [ (18.4/ 24) 24.3 = 18.6 ] and in the saline area, 5.7 maf/yr [(5.6/24) 24.3 = 5.71. 3. The tubewell pumpage from the non-saline portion of the aquifer has the following components: 273



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Chapter 3 a half miles. The economics of tubewell spacing are discussed in Chapter 7. Local variations will occur depending on village location and diversion points from distributaries. Insofar as possible, the wells should also be developed as sources of safe water for use of the villagers. The operation of the tubewells will have to be planned and scheduled in each project area with particular reference to the agricultural development. Coordination with operation of the canal supply will be required. To a considerable extent, the tubewell water will be discharged into existing distributaries and minors, and nearly all of it will be carried in the same water courses as the canal water. If for no other reason, this will require continuous coordination with the agency responsible for the delivery of canal water. At the present time, the responsibility for the surface supply system of barrages, canals, and irrigation outlets is in the Department of Irrigation. In addition, it assesses water charges. Tubewell construption is the responsibility of the Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA). This duty is in addition to its over-all task of planning and developing the combined use of water and power resources in the Province. We recommend that responsibility for operation and maintenance 'of the tubewells in those areas where drilling has already occurred be vested in the proposed authority for each project. The need for the most intimate association of planning and delivery of additional water with all the aspects of agricultural development precludes any other arrangement. An adminis trative breakdown between these two operations which caused failure in the delivery of the additional water on schedule would be intolerable. A year's effort could be wasted, with attendant collapse of morale of both staff and farmers. Furthermore, since many of the cultivators will have to borrow against projected increases in production, losses would be incurred which would either strain the limited resources of the farmers or require heavy subsidy payments by the Government. The personnel required to operate and maintain the tubewells represents the largest single group in our estimates for the staff of each project area. Present experience with tubewells in Project No. 1 indicates that one operator per well is required. With 1,200 wells in a million-acre district, 1,200 operators would be needed. It is probable that, with experience and development of better automatic controls, the number of wells per operator can be increased to perhaps five. However, for the initial years, the one-to-one correspondence should be held. In later years, if it is possible to increase the efficiency of the operation, personnel can be transferred to new areas. 'A detailed record of the operation of each well will be required. Flow measurements, salinity measurements, time log of operation, records 144



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Chapter 3 Lowering of the water table can be brought about only by increasing evaporation or by horizontal drainage. Evaporation is already high in the waterlogged lands, and may even approach the maximum potential evaporation in local zones, hence it will be difficult to increase. This is particularly true because this land is now virtually sterile, and evapotranspiration cannot be increased until the water table is lowered and the salt is leached out. In most areas of Former Punjab, construction of subsurface drains in the waterlogged land in order to lower the water table is expensive, and will give less exonomic benefit in the long run than wells. Pumped water can be disposed of through conveyance channels, but these also are expensive and should only be constructed where necessary to carry off highly saline ground water. By pumping water for use in irrigation and leaching from land near a waterlogged area, the direction of underground flow will be reversed, and the water table in the waterlogged area will eventually be lowered, without the necessity of attempting to drain it directly. In most regions, actually waterlogged areas would cover only scattered portions of a million-acre tract. These areas can be omitted for the time being in the engineering design of a tubewell system, and their existence is not a primary consideration in selecting a project area. In making a practical selection of project areas, existing or planned developments should be taken into account. Some 1,800 tubewells have recently been constructed in central Rechna Doab, and advanced engineering plans have been prepared for a large part of Chaj Doab. In order to get the over-all program under way as quickly as possible, the first two project areas should be started in these two regions. A third project area could be started in a District such as Lyallpur, Multan, or Montgomery, where yields per acre are already relatively high (though low by comparison with irrigated areas elsewhere in the world), the farmers have demonstrated their ability to adopt improvements, a natural gas pipeline is already in existence or in advanced planning stages, and large cities and towns exist where fertilizer plants, experiment stations, central marketing and credit facilities, and, eventually, processing mills can be established. From a strictly economic point of view, the highest ratio of benefits to cost in a Project area should be attainable in the northernmost sector of the Plain. Because this region has the lowest annual evapotranspiration and the highest rainfall, the amount of tubewell water per acre required 141



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Chapter 71 of tubewell effluent; and (iv) the pumping pattern and rate within the project. The basic equation commonly used for analysis of the movement of ground water is similar in form to that for the unsteady two-dimensional flow of heat in a plane, with a given pattern of heat sources and sinks and with conductivities and heat capacities that are different in different regions of the plane, ~2h + 2h +S -ah +_ 1 (7-1) x y T 'at T Where h = depth. of the water table in feet.. S = coefficient of storage of the aquifer. T = transmissibility of the aquifer in square feet per year. The parameter T is a measure of the porosity and effective depth of the aquifer. Q = the net rate of pumping (pumping minus recharge) in cubic feet per year per square foot. The assumptions underlying the application of this differential equation to problems of viscous flow in porous media are discussed by Jacob.(13) The principal limitations of the formulation relate to the assumptions that recharge and evaporation rates are independent of the depth h, and that the stream lines are essentially horizontal. In regions near wells and canals where the vertical component of flow is not negligible and where the permeability of the soil is markedly anisotropic, equation (7-1) must be replaced by more complex formulations in order to simulate the flow patterns more realistically. Computer Solutions of Ground Water Flow Problems Solutions of equation (7-1) and other more complex non-linear equations for ground water flow for complicated geometries such as those in the aquifer of the northern Indus Plain are best obtained by analogue and digital computers. Analogue computers have the advantage of being able to deal with large areas of irregular shape and with complex patterns of pumping and recharge over long spans of time. Digital computers are able to handle conveniently the non -linear relationships obtaining between recharge and ground water depth, and non-linear and non-stationary relationships between (13)C.E. Jacob, En gineering Hydraulics, Ed. by Hunter Rouse, Chapter 5, John Wiley and Sons, 1950. 291



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r z y-z 10% o FIG. 7.16 WEDGE SHAPED VOLUME OF AQUIFER 352



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MEMBERSHIP OF THE WHITE HOUSE -DEPARTMENT OF INTERIOR PANEL ON WATERLOGGING AND SALINITY IN WEST PAKISTAN Dr. Roger Revelle, Chairman Dr. Walter Langbein University Dean of Research U. S. Geological Survey University of California Washington, D. C. Berkeley, California Dr. R. A. Laudise Mr. John B. Blandford Bell Telephone Laboratories Consultant, AID Murray Hill, New Jersey Washington, D. C. Mr. George D. Lukes Dr. C. A. Bower, Director Center for Naval Analyses of the U. S. Salinity Laboratory Franklin Institute Riverside, California Institute of Naval Studies 1710 H Street, N. W. Professor Ayers Brinser Washington, D. C. University of Michigan Ann Arbor, Michigan Mr. Thomas Maddock U. S. Geological Survey Dr. Robert P. Burden Washington, D. C. Harvard University Cambridge, Massachusetts Professor A. S. Michaels Massachusetts Institute of Technology Professor Robert Dorfman Cambridge, Massachusetts Harvard University Cambridge, Massachusetts Mr. R. C. Reeve U. S. Salinity Laboratory Mr. Rollin Eckis, President Riverside, California Richfield Oil Corporation Los Angeles, California Mr. Herbert Skibitske U. S. Geological Survey Professor Walter P. Falcon Phoenix, Arizona Harvard University Cambridge, Massachusetts Professor Harold A. Thomas, Jr. Harvard University Professor Robert Gomer Cambridge, Massachusetts University of Chicago Urbana, Illinois Professor David K. Todd Professor John Isaacs University of California, University of California, San Diego Berkeley, California La Jolla, California Dr. C. A. Wadleigh, Director Dr. Leonhard Katz, President Soil and Water Conservation Research Astro-Dynamics, Inc. Agricultural Research Service Burlington, Massachusetts Washington, D. C. *Formerly Science Adviser to the Secretary of the Interior



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Chapter 6 The second advantage from bund-type construction would be that the land underlying the pond areas would be reclaimed. Sodium-affected land can be reclaimed, i.e., made permeable, by extended periods of water saturation. Surface ponds would have exactly this effect. After the underlying soils become permeable (making land unsuitable for ponds), the area could be returned to crop production. An analysis of the economic worth of surface ponds is complicated by several factors. The expected life of these ponds varies with the extent of sodium damage, though the exact relationship is unknown at present. )For example, it may take 3-5 years of ponding before moderate damage >~can be corrected. In areas of more severe damage, the period of time may be 10 years, If a surface pond lasts 5 years, the discounted benefits from fish production would be on the order of Rs 630 per acre.(18) This would not cover the cost of bund construction plus the cost of water to fill the ponds, though there is the substantial added benefit of having the newly reclaimed land. If, on the other hand, the surface pond's life is 10 years' the discounted benefits would be greater than the cost of bund construction. Hence, on those sodium-damaged soils where water can be supplied cheaply from pumped wells, surface ponds could have an important dual role. Phrased in different terms, fish culture in surface ponds may be a way of reclaiming severely sodium-damaged land at little or no social cost. Other Diversification Alternatives In addition to the livestock, poultry and fish enterprises previously described, ~brief mention should be made of other diversification alternatives. (18) This figure assumes that there is little.kimre lag in stocking the, ponds, or in bringing fish yield up to "average' production. The calculation also assumes a yield of 300 pounds per acre, a price of Rs 0.5 per pound, and a discount rate of 6 percent. 245



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Chapter 3 The task of blending genetic materials well adapted to local growing conditions with high-yielding disease -resistant plasma from local and foreign sources is a skilled and time-consuming task. It is also a never-ending one. Mutations of infective agents occur, making modified varieties necessary. As more water, fertilizer, and better practice become common, new and better seeds can profitably be employed. As mechanization of agriculture takes plac e, adaptations of plants may be required. As intensity of cultivation increases,, and also as it becomes necessary to use the high river flows during the monsoon period more efficiently, crops will be needed which mature more quickly. As development of areas with salty underground water occurs, high-yielding, saltresistant stocks will be desirable. Selection and breeding for quality of product become important. This need for quality ranges from nutritive requirements, to ease of baking, to fiber quality for export and manufacture. The required expansion must take place in the Provincial centers, as well as in the project areas. The primary breeding effort should be concentrated in the main educational and research centers, combined with localized breeding and field testing in project areas to test local adaptability. There needs to be a two-way flow between these two activities. Foregin personnel will be required for a considerable period, a decade or more, to help until Pakistani scientists acquire training and experience. Key foreign personnel in this part of the program should be assigned on a task basis, rather than for fixed periods of rotation. At all stages, but especially in the first years, extreme care should be used in the release of improved or new seeds for use by the farmers. To maintain momentum of development, increasing cooperation of the farmers is of the greatest importance. A new variety that might fail unexpectedly would be a serious blow to the confidence of the farmers in the area authority. Pest Control and Plant Protection Crop pests in West Pakistan are a major contributing factor to the current low yields of production. .Field experience demonstrates the economic efficacy of chemical treatment. For administrative purposes, plant protection measures in the field can be divided into two classes those undertaken communally, and those undertaken individually. 149



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Chapter 6 The demand for chickens and eggs varies seasonally and regionally, and poultry prices (like those of other Pakistani agricultural products) fall significantly with increased supplies. The current price of chickens at Lyallpur (Spring 1963) is about Rs 1.50 per pound. Hence a four-pound bird would sell for about Rs 6-a fifty percent excess over the estimated Rs 3.50 to Rs 4.50 direct cost of production. Eggs _sell for approximately Rs 2.50 per dozen, which is also greater than the direct costs of production. Thus, if supplies of balanced feed and chicks can be made available in sufficientt quantity when needed, if disease can be controlled, and if farmers can be taught the necessary management skills, then poultry production can help to improve diets and increase rural incomes. Fresh-Water Fish Alternatives Still another way in which per capita production of animal proteins could be increased is through inland fish culture. For example, to increase the per capita consumption of proteins by five grams per person per day for one millo people would require about 12,000 tons of fish annually. Fish culture in West Pakistan has been much less extensively practiced than in East Pakistan where fish constitute a major part of rural diets. However, there seems to be no fundamental reason why fish could not contribute greatly to the diet of the West Pakistanis, even though the inreasing salinity in drainage lakes, the marked annual temperature fluctuation, and other complex and changing conditions will require the culture of species than can flourish in a wide range of environments. One previous difficulty has been in failing to coordinate fish culture with irrigation. Apparently brood and fry fish often are lost because of the mode of operation of the water supply. This difficulty presumably could be corrected in test areas. As a matter of fact the water-covered area in the canals now existing in the Indus Plain could in principle be made to provide enough fish to raise the per capita consumption of animal proteins by one or two grams per day; however the operation of only some of the perennial canals as fisheries is likely to be practical. In addition to canals, a partial survey shows about 118,000 acres of existing ponds, bheels, swamps, etc. ranging from large lakes to small tanks. Even without improvement, these pond waters of West Pakistan could be expected to yield about 300 pounds of fish per acre annually. Intensive fish culture could raise this to 1000 or more pounds per acre per year. 241



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Chapter 7 occurring in the Indus Plain. The model is described in detail in the Appendix Report "Indus River Basin Studies", Harvard Water Resources Group (1963). The following sections contain a concise description of the salient features of the computer model and a discussion of its application to important general questions relating to the strategy of our plan. Among these are the cost of tubewell water, the economics of mining of groundwater, the optimal size of project areas, the proper spacing of wells and the cost and benefits associated with use of asphaltic emulsion sealants, to control leakage from the canals. The model is constructed in two parts that are joined in the final opti-mization process: The first part, the "technological function", permits of Sthe simulation of the characteristic movements of water in the hydrologic regime such as canal inflows, drainage ditch outflows, rain, leakage, pumping, evaporation. These interrelated movements constitute the technological function and in principle contain the entire set of physically feasible designs involving different blends of pumps, drains, and linings. This part of the model is intended to simulate the physical response corresponding to any given set of structures and operating rules. The second part consists of the cost and benefit functions that are needed and used in the evaluation and ranking of various alternative designs according to appropriate economic criteria such as prices, discount rates, economic time horizons, and budgetary constraints. With reference to Figure 7.20 the various flow vectors (volume of water per unit of time) are defined as follows: Q = canal flow x =water course flow z =tub ew ell -to -irrigation flow y-z = tubewell -to -drain flow w canal leakage u a irrigation water applied =l irrigation water through-put r rainfall r' =rain -to -groundwater flow r= overland runoff -to -canal flow (flood damage vector) r1"'1 overland runoff -to -drain flow s *groundwater seepage to drain v =evaporation from the groundwater p = groundwater inflow P2=groundwater outflow 307



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Chapter 7 In Figure '7.13 are shown profiles along Section A-A' for all four runs. The retarding effect of recharge on dewatering may be seen by comparing Run A with Run B and Run C with Run D. In evaluating the magnitude of the effect of lateral infiltration and recharge in the four cases, it should be noted that at a pumping rate of 0.5 feet per year in the project area, if no lateral infiltration or recharge occurred, the depth to the water table after 20 years would be 0. 5(20)/0.2 5 =4Of eet. With the higher pumping rate of 1.5 feet per year, the depth would be 120 feet. At the end of the twenty-year pumping period in all four runs the entire project area has water table depths larger than 10 feet which is approximately the depth required to halt the salt build-up process. In Run B, however, this has just occurred and so for this low rate of pumping it may be concluded that it would take at least a decade to eliminate waterlogging and to stop salination. The large figure of 500,000 gpd/ft for transmissibility was selected to investigate the effects of high rates of lateral inflow, and thereby to deter mine what the worst effects might be in sites with high soil permeability. The results for Run D indicate that a satisfactory rate of lowering of the ground water table can be achieved with the pumping rates and the size of project areas recommended in our plan, even in areas with heavy recharge from rivers or large canals, and with permeable soils. Lateral infiltration into the project area would not be sufficient to inhibit agricultural production. Further investigations of lateral infiltration and the optimal size of project area are reported in a following section "Digital Computer Simulation of the Hydro -Agronomic Regime. Problems in Regions Having Excessive Salinity in Soil and Ground Water Of the total of 30 million acres of culturable land in the north Indus Plain, regions of extensive salinity damage, including areas of poor drainage, occupy about 7 million acres. The salt in the upper part of the soil profile which impairs agricultural productivity derives from three sources: (i) salt existing in the soil before tne irrigation era; (ii) salt left as a residue in the upper layers of the soil from the evaporation of thinly applied irrigation water with no through-put to the water table; and (iii) salt residues from the evaporation of ground water in areas where the water table is near the ground surface. In discussing the problems of salinity management, it is worthwhile first to form rough estimates of the relative importance of these sources by calculating for a typical situation the contribution made by each in poorly drained farmlands that have been irrigated for say thirty years. (i) From salt originally in the soil. Assume that the original salt concentration in the soil was less than 0.1 percent; this corresponds to concentrations of less than 2 tons per acre foot. 295



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Table 1.7 (continued) Average Agricultural Production in West Pakistan by Crops Ten years, from 1949-50 to 1958-59 (1) Compiled from data given in Statistics of West Pakistan. Agricultural Data by Division and District, 1947-48 through 1958-59, Bureau of Statistics, Government of West Pakistan, December 1960. (2) In computing values in rupees, the prices for major crops, except oil seeds, were taken as the average for 1955-56 through 1958-59 in the sixteen Districts of the Former Punjab, from "Acreage, Production, and Prices of Major Agricultural Crops of West Pakistan (Punjab) 1931-59," by Abdur Rab; Institute of Developmental Economics, Karachi, June 1961. The average price of oil seeds given by Rab is too high; we have assumed Rs 24 per maund. Values for fruits, vegetables, and other crops, and fodder are our own estimates, based on published and unpublished information. (3) For energy values of different food crops, see Table 1.14. (4) Estimates of gross sown area and yield of fruits are based on information in "Fruit Culture and Fruit Preservation," by Saeed Ahmed Fifty Years of hAicultural Education and Research, Department of Agriculture, -3 West Pakistan, 1960. (5) Less fodder. (6) As edible animal product, assuming 10%. conversion efficiency of plant food by livestock. Values in parentheses are our estimates.



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Table 1.9 Average Agricultural Production in Canal-irrigated but Waterlogged and/or Saline Districts in the Former Punjab(l Ten years, from 1949-50 to 1958-59 Crop %oss area sown Yigld Value Yield Value 10 acres % 10 tons 106 Rs per acre per acre lbs. Rs Food Grains Rice (cleaned) .47 12.1 .18 55 11.4 865 118 Wheat 1.52 39.0 .55 175 36.4 805 115 Barley .06 1.7 .02 4 0.9 620 67 Jowar (sorghum) .06 1.5 .01 4 0.8 510 64 Baira (millet) .14 3.5 .03 9 1.9 460 62 Maize (corn) .08 2.0 .03 9 1.8 825 111 Total Food Grains 2.33 59.8 .82 256 53.2 785 110 Other Food Crops Gram (chick peas) .25 6.5 .06 18 3.8 550 73 Other pulses (legumes) .09 2.3 (.01) (4) 0.8 (335) (45) Oil seeds .08 2.0 .01 7 1.5 330 98 Cotton seed same as cotton .04 28 5.8 310 105 Cane sugar (raw sugar) .11 2.8 .11 51 10.6 2,365 475 Fruits .01 0.3 .04 (13) 2.7 (6,590) (1,000) Vegetables and other crops .08 2.1 -(16) 3.3 -(200) Fibers Cotton .27 6.9 .02 14 2.9 155 50 Fodder .67 17.1 (4.89) (67) 13.9 (16,460) (100 Tobacco .01 0.2 4. 005 7 1.5 625 7N Total 3.90 100 1.11(2) 481 100 124 Total, less fodder, fruits, vegetables, and other 3.14 80.5 389 80.2 124 Canal Irrigated Area 2.80 71.9 (1) Districts of Gujranwala, Jhang, Muzaffargarh, and Sheikhupura. (2) Less fodder. For source of data see Table 1.7. FLgures in parentheses are our own estimates.



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Chapter 3 Indeed, efforts have been made and are being made to deal with every one of the short-comings we have mentioned. The question to be faced is why these efforts have been unsuccessful, as they are generally conceded to be. The answer to the question is apparent enough from the nature of the problem and the records of previous and current attempts. Because agricultur e is beset by a wide range of impediments, an attempt to deal with any one of them will be balked by the presence of the others. Water, fertilizer, seed, agricultural practices, and salt -free soil are complementary factors of production; no one of them can be applied to full effect in the absence of the others. Yet a coordinated attack on all these fronts is impossible when dealing with a planted area of upwards of 25 million acres. The record of the attempt to deal with the problems on so wide a front is presented vividly in the report of the Food and Agriculture Commission. It is a record of insufficient supplies, insufficient manpower, insufficient transport, insufficient coordination. It is a record of too few men with too little material trying to deal with too large a problem. No wonder that the results have been so meager. Analysis of the production of wheat and rice from 1949 to 1959 in the five canal-irrigated districts of the Former Punjab that have suffered relatively minor waterlogging and salinity damage illustrates the stagnation of the agricultural sector. Gross production of wheat over the last five years of the decade decreased about 0.7 percent, while the average area sown increased about 5.8 percent. The figures for rice are even less encouraging. Average gross production over the same five -year period decreased about 9.2 per.cent, while the area sown increased approximately 4.8 percent. In both cases the decrease in yield per acre explains the failure to secure increased gross production. The data are summarized in Table 3. 1. Concentration on a Series of Limited Project Areas Our primary recommendation is a reorientation of strategy in the directior of a concentration of effort on limited project areas. On the administrative side, we recommend a shift from an administrative structure based onfunction to one based on area. This shift will permit a coordinated attack on all aspects of the agricultural problem in regions of manageable size. We propose that the mjor part of the culturable area of the Indus Plain in the Former Punjab, Former Bahawalpur, and Former Sind be divided into some 25 to 30 project areas, each manned by a competent and adequate staff, 130



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TABLE 1.1.2 Approximate Value of Crops Destroyed by Floods 1948-19601/ District Total Value Destroyed 1948-1960 Rs. 10b Potwar Upland Jhelumn 1.38 ) Mianwali .11 ) 1.49 Campbell Pur -) Attock -) Thal Doab Muzaffargarh 13.62 Chaj Doab Gujrat 3.03 ) 36.32 Shahpur/Sargodha 33.29 ) Rechna Doab Sialkot 30.75 ) Gujranwala 13.74 ) Lyallpur 29.20 ) 160.67 Jhang 31.52 ) Sheikhupura 55.46 ) Bari Doab Lahore 31.41 ) Montgomery 23.83 ) 91.73 Multan 36.49 ) Bahawalpur Bahawalpur 2.46 ) Bahawal Nagar 8.96 ) 11.52 Rahimyar Khan .10 ) D. G. Khan 9.19 D. I. Khan 4.47 Total: Rs329.01 x 106 Total computed for floods occurring in the years 1948, 1950, 1954, 1955, 1956, 1957, 1958, 1959, and 1960, from Annual Report of West Pakistan Flood Commission year 1958-59, West Pakistan Flood Commission Publication No. 1. 68



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Chapter 2 available within the country are given in Table 2.5. Except for tobacco, which is a relatively minor crop, the highest anticipated increases in yield are obtained with rice, followed by maize, cotton, and sugarcane. By 1959-60, field protection measures had already been taken over 20 percent of the sugar acreage, a fourth of the tobacco land, and about 15 percent of the area planted to wheat, fruits, and vegetables. Seeds tested against disease were planted in 20 percent of the maize acreage, 17 percent of the wheat, and 13 percent of the cotton, while 16 percent of the nursery rice had also received protective measures. Improved varieties of cotton had been planted in 30 percent of the cotton acreage. Calculated future increases in these crops from protective measures and use of presently available better seeds should be reduced accordingly (See Table 5.12). The effects of interaction, discussed below, will undoubtedly more than compensate for this reduction, but Quantitative estimates are not possible without further experience. Greater utilization of salt-tolerant crops Where poor drainage, a limited supply of irrigation water, or the necessary use of highly saline irrigation water make it impossible to maintain a low level of soil salinity, agricultural output can be increased by growing salt-tolerant crops. Appropriate highly salt-tolerant crops for West Pakistan include barley, sugar beets, bermuda-grass, and cotton(2). Utilization of saline land for production of barley and bermuda-grass would provide much needed additional sources of feed for livestock and poultry, and growing cotton on saline land would perhaps release some non-saline land for production of salt-sensitive crops. In the absence of salinity, and with ample water, the sugar producing potential of sugarcane under West Pakistan climatic conditions is considerably greater than that of sugar beets. Yet, with limited water and much saline land, it might be advantageous to produce part or all of Pakistan's sugar needs from sugar beets grown on saline land in the northern portion of the Indus Plain. (2) In West Pakistan, some agricultu rists consider cotton to be salt-sensitive, whereas all types of cotton grown in the United States are definitely s-alttolerant. If further investigation shows West Pakistan cotton to be truly inferior as regards salt tolerance, then introduction of adapted salt-tolerant varieties is indicated. 108



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Chapter 1 (see Map 1.2), the average annual rainfall is more than 26 inches.(1) In northern Mianwali, at the foot of the Salt Range, and in Shahpur, Gujranwala, and Lahore, the annual precipitation does not much exceed 18 inches. It diminished substantially as one proceeds to the south in Bari, Rechna, and Thal Doabs and in Former Bahawalpur. Roughly four-fifths of the area of irrigation agriculture in the Former Punjab has an average annual rainfall of 12 inches or less. In the northern part of the Former Sind, the average annual rainfall is less than five inches, and this is concentrated mainly in July and August. Annual precipitation increases toward the Southwest as the tropical coastland is approached, to about 10 inches. Average Seasonal Rainfall The customary growing season for winter (Rabi) crops extends from October 17 through March 31. Map 1.3 shows the average rainfall. None of the Former Punjab under canal irrigation experiences, on the average, rainfall over five inches; Former Bahawalpur and southern Former Punjab receive two inches or less; and the central part of Former Sind less than one inch. Map 1.4 displays the isohyetal pattern during the summer (Kharif) growing period, extending from April 1 through October 15. Since this is the rainy season, the pattern of distribution is similar to the average annual rainfall. South of the foothills of the Himalayas and the Salt Range the highest values run between 18 and 22 inches. Four-fifths of the canalirrigated area in the Former Punjab receive less than 12 inches. In southern Muzaffargarh, Multan, and Former Bahawalpur, the summer average is less than five inches, and in northern Former Sind, less than four inches. Central and southern Former Sind receive slightly more than six inches. Effective Precipitation. The amount of rainfall, its rate, and the duration of fall determine whether precipitation will percolate deeply into the soil or be lost through surface runoff and evaporation. These factors can be utilized in estimating the "effective precipitation"-effective in the sense of availability for consumptive (1) "Average Rainfall in various Sub-Periods in Inches" Indus Basin Working Party, Set No. 15 (Pakistan), Study 11-3 to 11-7, Statement A(6). 28



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Summary waterlogging and salination, side by side with an early attempt to reclaim saline lands. Severely waterlogged areas can be left for later development. Existing or planned tubewell and drainage construction programs should be taken into account in selection of the initial project areas, as should the fact that from a strictly economic point of view, the highest ratio of benefits to costs should be attainable in the northern most sector of the Plain. Be cause this region has the lowest annual evapotranspiration and the highest rainfall, the amount of tubewell water per acre required for intensive agriculture is significantly smaller than in other areas, and hence the gross sown area can be increased more cheaply. At the same time, large quantities of fresh groundwater are locally available and cost of transporting water can be minimized. Potential Increases in Agricultural Output Early momentum in development in the Former Punjab and Former Bahawalpur should result from the additional irrigation water provided by installation of tubewells in the project areas. This additional water can be used in many ways: to increase the depth of irrigation provided to crops; to enlarge the cropped area, both by increasing the intensity of cultivation and by bringing under the plough lands now fallow or classed as culturable waste; to apply enough water to cultivated land to prevent the accumulation of salts; to leach salts out of deteriorated land; and to irrigate culturable land which is too high for the gravity supply from the canals. One of the major benefits will be to free the farmers from their current dependence on the weather and from the irregularity of canal supplies. The wells will provide not only a more reliable supply of water than ever before, but also water that is better distributed in time. Computations (given in Chapter 5) for an illustrative million-acre tract in the northern part of the Plain indicate that by adding 1.2 million acre feet of tubewell water to the present canal supply of just over a million / acre feet, the gross value of output could be increased from $32 million (Rs 152 million) to $59 million (Rs 282 million) or by 86 percent. After allowing for increased costs of tillage, the net increase would be $26 million (Rs 124 million) or 82 percent. Use of moderate amounts of nitrogen fertilizer plus plant protection measures and presently available better seeds, when combined with the additional tubewell water in the same area, should give an additional gross increase in crop value of $22 million (Rs 106 million); the net increase after subtracting the cost of fertilizer, plant protection, and seeds, is $17 million (Rs 80 million) or 56 percent of the present net value. The total gross increase from additional water, fertilizer, plant protection, and existing high yield plant varieties, even when their effect are computed separately without taking interaction into account, is 157 percent of the present gross value. 7



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Appendix A.8 Category and Type of PriProject No. Study No./ orit Description Project 29 E Development of inexpensive canal linings a. Comparative studies of cost and effectiveness of existing lining techniques b. Development and testing of new types of linings *1 should be started immediately; 2 should be started within 3 years; 3 should be started within 5 to 7 years. DC Data collection; SS Sample Surveys; A Analysis; E Experimentation 454 U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE 19" 0-723-4?



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Lemon, Edgar R., The potentialities for decreasing soil moisture evaporation loss: Soil Science Society of America, Proceedings, 20 (1), p. 120-125, January, 1956. Lemon, Edgar R., Glaser, A. H., and Satterwhite, L. E., Some aspects of the relationship of soil, plant, and meteorological factors to evapotranspiration: Soil Science Society of America, Proceedings, 21 (5), p. 464-468, September-October, 1957. Lenk-Chevitch, 0., Hydrological research in Pakistan in 1954: United Nations Technical Assistance Administration, New York, report no. TAA/PAK/7, 1956. LeVee, V. M., Observation on land conditions in West Pakistan: Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome, report no. 88, 1953. Lewis, William Arthur, Agricultural extension, (in his The theory of economic growth): London, George Allen & Unwin, p. 187-191, 1955. Lunin, Jesse, and others, Use of brackish water for irrigation in humid regions: Washington, U.S. Govt. Print. Off., 5 p., 1960 (U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Agriculture Information Bulletin no. 213). Macdonald, Sir Murdoch, and partners, Sukkur-Gudu-Ghulam Mohammed drainage and salinity control project, Ghulam Mohammed Command, interim report on ground water drainage in perennial areas for West Pakistan Water and Power Development Authority: London, Hunting Technical Services, Ltd., 29 e, 1960. Manual on river behaviour, control and training: Central Board of Irrigation and Power, Publication no. 60, New Delhi, 1956. Marshall, J., Mohenjo-Daro and the Indus civilization: London, v. 1, 1931. Masud-ul-Hasan, Law and principles of basic democracies: Lahore, Pakistan Social Service Foundation, 349 p., 1960. Mathews, 0. R., and Army, T. J., Moisture storage on fallowed wheatland in the Great Plains: Soil Science Society of America, Proceedings, 24 (5), p. 414-418, September-October, 1960. Mayer, Albert and Associates in collaboration with McKim Marriott and Richard L. Park, Pilot project, India, the story of rural development at Etawah, Uttar Pradesh: University of California Press, Berkeley and Los Angeles, California, 367 p., 1959. Mech, Stephen J., Soil erosion and its control under furrow irrigation in the arid west: Washington, U.S. Govt. Print. Off., 6 p., 1959 (U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Agriculture Information Bulletin no. 184). 392



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Chapter 3 require fertilizer and other agricultural supplies. Longer-term loans for investment in bullocks, implements, and land are another important aspect of a comprehensive credit program. The Agricultural Development Bank has a particularly crucial role to play in helping to meet these credit requirements. Additional branch offices of the Bank will be required. If farmers are to derive benefits from this institution, offices must be close, the processing of loans must be prompt, and discrimination must be minimal. In order to promote cooperation between the A.D.B. and the project administration, the Bank should have a senior officer in each project area charged with instructing and supervising loan officers in the issue and administration of agricultural development loans. The project administration, also, should have a loan officer on its staff to assist credit institutions in carrying out their loan operations. The project administration should not, however, enter the banking business directly. At the operational level, there are two credit schemes in particular that should be attempted in early project areas. The first of these, which could be effectively administered by the A.D.B., deals with short term production loans. The program involves very close cooperation and coordination with the extension staff, and might operate (illustratively) in the case of a fertilizer loan as follows: An extension worker would develop, with the farmer, a farm plan designed to increase the net revenue of the farmer. This plan would undoubtedly call for more fertilizer, and would probably require that the farmer borrow funds to make the necessary purchase. The extension agent would issue to the cooperating farmer a voucher requresting the A.D.B., to provide funds for the purchase of up to (say) five maunds of fertilizer. After obtaining bank approval, the farmer would then take the stamped loan voucher to a farm-supply retailer, and would there exchange this voucher for fertilizer. No money would change hands between the Bank, the farmer, and the retailer, and the voucher could be used only for the purchase of the production items specified-in this case, fertilizer. (The retailer would be reimbursed in rupees by presenting the recipted voucher to the A.D.B.) The loan would be secured on the farmer's forthcoming crop, with the expectation that it could be repaid from the increased productivity due to the fertilizer.(10) (lO)The credit scheme briefly outlined here is roughly comparable to that used in the Indian Intensive District Program, op. cit. 154



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NON-BENEFICIAL EVAPO -TRANSPIRATION TOTAL 6.8 OIVERS/ONf 241j CANALS 5.7+y 45 6-y NBET RECHARGE FROM /.6y 0.05 DISTRIBUTION 13.9 SYSTEM O /e/A NBET A EXPORT NBET ~ 18.4ma 0.2 2.0 AREA All 5.6ma L At ,, W NONSALINE 5 AR[A REC//ARCE ON/ SI/ l ..IL SALINE AREA RVERS CPS EPORT / I" EXPORT AL~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~i Ali AL9 LA.A kkA 0 20.0 1 .7 19.2 2.9+W MINING MINING FIG. 7.4 SCHEMATIC DIAGRAM : SALINE AREA PROBLEM (All flows are in millions of acre feet per year)



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Appendix A. 5 family and bullock labor is a dubious itemn. On the one hand it will undoubtedly require more work on the part of both humans and bullocks to cultivate larger crops and expanded acreage, but on the other hand there is considerable evidence that both bullocks and farmers are at present underutilized in Pakistani agriculture(9) so that substantial increases in crops can be obtained without increasing the numbers of men or animals employed on the farms. Other items in the farm cost accounts, particularly interest and depreciation on tools and the like, will probably increase far less than in proportion to the increases in acreage and yields. In short, the farm account data available do not distinguish fully between the constant costs of farm operation and those that vary in response to changes in yields and extent of cultivation. The optimal cropping pattern depends upon the water requirement per acre, the yield, and the gross and net value per acre for each of the crops produced. In the present analysis, these data are not regarded as immutably fixed, but are determined within the computation to assure that the marginal value of water is the same on all crops to which it is applied. The sole exception to this statement is rice, which must be grown under standing water. Therefore it was prescribed that land under rice must be provided with sufficient water to meet the full evapotranspiration potential. Except for rice, the water requirement, yield, and value data were determined by the trial-andrevision procedure just described, using water response curves with parameters estimated by taking averages of the data in Table A.5.1. Table A.5.3 shows these data for the optimal depths of irrigation, which correspond to a marginal value of water of Rs. 5.54 per acre-inch in Kharif and nil in Rabi. The optimal cropping pattern deduced from these data is shown in Table A.M. According to this computation, the gross area cropped should be 1,389 thousand acres, corresponding to a cropping intensity of 1.64. The corresponding gross value of output is Rs. 26 crore per year, and the net value is Rs. 23 crore pear year. It is instructive to compare these results with those of Table 5.6, which reflects the same physical and economic data and the same. agricultural practices. According to Table 5.6 the gross value produced is (9) See A. G. Asghar, B. A. Azhar and S. Haider, A study Into The Economics of Land and Water Use in Land Reclamation (Lahore: Pakistan Association for the Advancement of Science, 1960), p. 17, or Rana Nasib Khan, Survey of Small Holdings in the Punjab (Lahore: Board of Economic Inquiry, 1955), p. 28. 428



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Chapter 7 (c) Constraints: The following conditions are imposed to make the system practicable: See Figures 7.4 and 7.5. (1) Salinity and sodium constraint in the non-saline area: Assume that onethird of tubewells have an effluent with an excessive salinity or a sodium absorption ratio such that they require dilution with surface water in the ratio of 1:1. [From data supplied by the Water and Soil Investigation Division of West Pakistan Water and Power Development Authority based on a large number of chemical analyses of water from recently completed tubewells in Rechna Doab]. The ratio of surface water to 1/3 the tubewell water in the non-saline area must be equal to or greater than 1. 18.6-y 1 1/3[32.5 -34.5B] (2) Salinity constraint in the saline area: The salinity of the applied irrigation water in the saline area must be equal to or less than some specified upper limit, CMAX. 4.03A + 0.95z (6000) + (5.7 + y) (250) <(5.7 + y + 0.95z + 4.03 + R)CMAX (3) Sodium constraint in the saline area: Assume that one-half of the tubewells have an effluent with an excessive sodium absorption ratio (SAR) such that they must be diluted with canal water in the ratio of two parts of canal water to one part of pumped water. [From analysis of data supplied by WAPDA; see note above (constraint 1)]. The ratio of surface water to 1/2 the tubewell water in the saline area must be equal to or greater than 2. 5.7 + y >2 1/2 [4.03 + 0.95z (4) Mining-export constraint in the saline area: The export from mining in the saline area must be equal to or greater than 100 B percent of the pumped water. 2.9 +w-z ZB (2.9 +w) (5) Areal loading constraint in the non-saline area: The total amount of irrigation water per year in the non-saline area must be equal to or less than the product of the total area (18.4 ma) and the specified average rate of irrigation, (18.6 -y) + (32.5 -34.5 B) <18.4,& 277



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Chapter 5 As the adjustments to the traditional shortage of water are manyfold, so will be the responses to its alleviation. The most direct response will be to increase the depths of irrigation applied to crops. Our studies indicate, however,. that this change, though desirable from several points of view, will not lead directly to a significant increase in crop yield per acre during any oneseason. It is for this reason, principally, that the development of tubewells has to be treated as merely one aspect of a many-pronged attack on the problem of agricultural productivity. The conclusion that agricultural yields cannot be increased significantly merely by providing more water was reached by comparing estimates of the amount of water required for maximum plant growth with estimates of the amount of water historically supplied to various crops, and by estimating the addition to actual crops that could be obtained by increasing the water supply to the maximum usable amount. Table 5.1 presents a number of estimates of water requirements of major crops grown under conditions approximating those prevailing in the region commanded by the Lower Chenab Canal. The first five columns contain recommendations made by the authorities named. The sixth column gives estimates of potential evapotranspiration during the growing season of the crops. It was computed from estimates of monthly evapotranspiration potential, computed by the Weather Bureau, U.S. Department of Commerce, (See Appendix A. 1) applied to the sowing and harvesting dates given in Crops, Vegetables and Fruits in Pakistan (Karachi: Ministry of Food and Agriculture, 1959). In our opinion these figures are the most reliable estimates available of the amount of water that can be used beneficially by the crops. The amount of water a plant can use depends principally on the amount of solar energy available to it for. transpiration, and this amount is fully reflected in the evapotranspiration potential. It is clear from the table that there is a substantial diversity of informed opinion about the amount of water that crops in the Indus Basin can use profitably. More work is required on this important problem. In Table 5.2 evapotranspiration potentials applicable to major crops grown in the Lower Chenab Canal region are compared with apparent water supplies, for five crop seasons. Since no records are available of the depths of irrigation applied to various crops, the apparent water supplies given in this table are estimates prepared by us using the methods described in Appendix A. 5. For the three Rabi seasons studied, actual water supplies were almost, if not fully, up to the evapotranspiration potential. In Kharif, actual water supply was substantially below evapotranspiration potential in one of the two seasons studied and moderately below in the other. 187



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Chapter 5 the water distribution system. Hence the total cost of additional water should be Rs.2.2 crore. The gross annual benefit of Rs. 1300 lakh may be divided by the total cost of the tubewell water to give a gross benefit-cost ratio or 1300/ 220 = 5.9. This is a very favorable ratio, even taking into account the fact that no allowance has been made in the calculation for the additional cost of tillage. (4) With the cropping pattern of Table 5.11, the total net cultivated area in our typical million acre tract would be used in Rabi, but 104 thousand acres would lie fallow in Kharif. This results from the fact that sugarcane and cotton, although listed as Karif crops, require land during both seasons. If it were possible to sow this 104 thousand acres to summer fodder, the value of crops would be raised by Rs. 1.7 crore and the total use of tubewell water would be increased by 182 thousand acre feet, at a cost of Rs.O.35 crore. The average annual depth of irrigation over the entire cultivated acreage would be 34.5 inches. Although such full land use is desirable and should ultimately be feasible, we have not taken it into account in our calculations. (4) The tillage costs, which are here neglected because available estimates are unduly crude, are certainly minor. They comprise, principally, four elements.' (1) Rental value of the additional land cultivated. This can be neglected since it is not a social cost; the land would be simply unused and useless without the additional water. (2) Additional labor of cultivation. As mentioned in Appendix A. 5 there is a considerable surplus of farm labor which can be applied to the land without sacrificing valuable output elsewhere. (3) Additional labor of draft animals. Although draft animals also appear to be underutilized at present, the additional 380,000 acres of gross sown area might require as many as 50,000 more work bullocks. Feed for these animals would take up some of the increase in fodder production indicated in Table 5.11, but a calculation similar to that made below for F'ormer Sind (Tables 5.14 to 5.18) shows that even after taking into account the need for more bullock feed, the value of milk and meat production for the fodder and straw grown on the additional acreage would be Rs.190 lakh, nearly Rs.50 lakh above the cash value of total new fodder production. (4) Additional expense for purchase of fertilizer, seed, plant protection, and other agricultural requisites. Under current methods of tillage these costs appear to be nominal except for a few crops such as sugarcane. If we add Rs.65 lakh to annual costs to allow for this (Rs.59 lakh for seed, 4 lakh for fertilizer, and 2 for plant protection) the benefitcost ratio is reduced further to 1300/ 285 =4.6. It will undoubtedly be necessary to fertilize most of the new land brought under cultivation, but this will also produce additional benefits which are discussed in a subsequent section of this chapter. In short, no reasonable adjustments to the calculation given in the text produce other than very favorable benefit-cost ratios. 193



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Chapter 1 arose from agriculture as against 13 percent from manufacturing, 2 percent from mining, and 31 percent from government, services, and trade together. (9)The agricultural population is the major market for the other sectors. In 1955, about 96 percent of the output of the manufacturing sector was domestically consumed, chiefly by the agricultural sector. (10)Agriculture is also the source of most of the country's foreign exchange. Table 1. 5.1 shows approximate average amounts of foreign exports and imports from Pakistan's two Wings during 1959-61, together with average values for inter-Wing trade in those years. IAgrieultural products accounted for 67 percent of the value of all exports. An additional 2 5 percent was made up of cotton textile and jute products, whose principal raw material comes from the farms. Although exports from West Pakistan were only a little more than a third of those from the entire country, the proportions of agricultural products and textiles were roughly similar, 58 percent and 27 percent respectively. During the last few years, Pakistan has had an unfavorable balance of trade. Although many factors are involved, including the increase of imports of needed capital equipment and the world-wide worsening of the terms of trade for raw-materials producers, Table 1.5.1 shows that the excess value of imports over exports is almost equal numerically to the cost of Pakistan's food imports. More than two-thirds of these were for use in West Pakistan. Fortunately, the loss of foreign exchange from food imports is comparatively small at the present time, because a major portion of these can be paid for in rupees, under agreements with surplus producing countries such as those made possible by United States Public Law 480. Proportion of farm production in different regions The Indus Plain produces 75 percent, by weight and value, of the food and fiber grown in West Pakistan (Table 1.6). Nearly half the total comes from the nine canal-irrigated Districts of the Former Punjab, slightly over 20 percent from Former Sind, and just under 10 percent from Former Bahawalpur. About 15 percent of the total agricultural production is harvested from the Potwar Uplands and piedmont plains of the northern (9) Government of Pakistan, Budget 196 1-62, Economic Survey and Statistics; April 1960 -March 1961 (Karachi, 1961); Table No. 1. (10) Computed from data published in J. C. H. Fei, "A Preliminary Input Output Table for Large-Scale Industries in Pakistan", "The Pakistan Development Review", 2 (Spring 1962); p. 69. 39



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Table 7.2 Summary of Computations of Skimming Well Formulation Isotropic Cases Example Permeability Density Aquifer Well Degree of Depth of Spacing Acres Maximum of Aquifer k (ppm) Thickness Radius Penetration Penetration of Well per Discharge (ft/yr) Salt Fresh m r a D f Well Qmax Water Water (ft) (ftl (ft) (ft) A Ps 5 f (acres) (gpm) 1 19,500 20,000 900 500 2.25 0.42 210 5850 785 351 2 19,500 6,000 300 500 2.25 0.42 210 3330 254 114 3 19,500 20,000 900 500 1.125 0.43 215 5330 650 290 4 48,800 20,000 900 100 2.00 0.36 36 2285 120 54 5 48,800 6,000 300 100 2.00 0.36 36 1345 42 19 6 48,800 20,000 900 50 1.75 0.34 17 1285 38 17 7 48,800 6,000 300 50 1.75 0.34 17 745 13 6 8 48,800 10,000 900 100 1.00 0.38 38 1425 47 21 9 48,800 10,000 900 100 2.00 0.36 36 1630 61 27 10 48,800 10,000 900 100 3.00 0.34 34 1750 70 32 11 48,800 10,000 900 100 4.00 0.33 33 1875 81 36 12 48,800 10,000 900 100 5.00 0.31 31 1990 91 41 Anisotropic Cases Vertical Permeability 1 a -Horizontal Permeability 10 13 0.43 215 5540 692 314 14 0.43 215 3150 227 102 15 0.44 222 5125 602 269 16 (Same as corresponding items in examples 0.40 40 2040 96 43 17 1-12) 0.40 40 1200 33 15 18 0.38 19 1115 29 13 19 0.38 19 650 10 4 20 0.42 42 1310 39 18 21 0.39 39 1485 51 23 22 0.38 38 1570 57 25 23 0.37 37 1630 61 27 24 0.36 36 1725 68 31



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Table 6.2. Fruit and Nut Crops of the Irrigated Arid Valleys of California .Crop Adaptability Plants or trees Distance apart Spacing of plants per acre of rows, feet in row, feet Almonds Poor 76 24 24 Apricots Fair 76 24 12 Blackberries Fair 1,361 8 4 Poor 1,361 8 4 Poor 1,361 8 4 Dates Excel. 49 30 30 Excel. 49 30 30 Excel. 49 30 30 Good 49 30 30 Excel.. 49 30 30 Excel. 49 30 30 Excel. 49 30 30 Figs Fair 109 20 20 Fair 109 20 20 Grapefruit Excel. 70 25 25 Excel. 70 25 25 Grapes Excel. 453 12 8 Excel. 453 12 8 Excel. 453 12 8 Excel. 453 12 8 Excel. 453 12 8 Excel. 453 12 8 Lemons Fair 90 22 22 Fair 90 22 22 Limes Fair 90 22 22 Fair 90 22 22 Loquats Fair 109 20 20 Mulberries Good 43 32 32 Olives Fair 70 25 25 Oranges Good 76 24 24 Good 76 24 24 Fair 76 24 24 Peaches Fair 109 20 20 Fair 109 20 20 Pears Poor 109 20 20 Pecans Fair 12 60 60 Persimmons Fair 109 20 20 Plums Fair 109 20 20 Pomegranates Good 389 14 8 Quinces Poor 109 20 20 Strawberries Fair 24,891 42 1 Tangerines Fair 109 20 20 Fair 109 20 20 Source: California Desert Agriculture, op. cit. 254



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Chapter 4 There are also more general research requirements. Through project staff or research arrangements with other government agencies or consultants, the economic environment and the health and nutrition determinants of agricultural production should be surveyed and the lessons applied. Agricultural Supplies and Credit Of key importance are the agencies that provide the supply and credit services that are essential to increasing agricultural production. They are the Agricultural Development Corporation, the Cooperative Department, and the agricultural banking facilities. Relation to Provincial and National Planning In due course, agricultural production in the project area will become a part of and be influenced by agricultural planning for the province and the nation. The project organization should provide for liaison with provincial agricultural planning, The administrative arrangements for this planning should be reviewed, be they in the Ministry, the Department or the Agricultural Development Corporation. Role of the Basic Democracies The Basic Democracy System in the project area should make an important contribution to project success. The system can help to motivate the farmers to make farm plans, to accept extension services and generally to support project goals. Also, the System should make special effort to strengthen governmental services-health, education and roads-in the project area. Records and Reporting Also essential in the project organization is a record and reporting center to establish base lines, to assure a flow of operational data, and to provide material for an educational program. This center should have competence in the tactics and techniques of communicating with the farmer and the project community. 178



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Table A.5.1 Parameters of Water Response Curves M S X Canal (mds / ac) (inches) (inches) (inches) (nhs 55-56 56-57 57-58 55-56 56-57 57-58 Rice Central Bari Doab 11.5 11.5* 40.9 40.9 Lower Bari Doab 11.5 11.2 40.4 40.4 40.4 Upper Chenab 16.6 ** 41.0 41.0 ** Lower Chenab 14.1 11.6 42.2 42.2 42.2 Upper Jhelum 14.8 14.8* 40.6 40.6 Lower Jhelum 12.0 11.3 43.6 43.6 43.6 Pakpattan 10.9* 10.3 44.0 44.0 Dipalpur 12.0* 12.0* 43.4 * Mailsi 10.0* 9.0* 44.0 * Haveli 10.1 9.0 44.0 44.0 44.0 Rangpur 10.4* 9.2* 43.5 * Sugarcane Central Bari Doab 24.6 25.2 50.8 43.2 Lower Bari Doab 34.2 32.3 55.4 45.9 54.8 Upper Chenab 28.6 ** 50.6 40.7 ** Lower Chenab 30.6 32.4 52.6 47.7 40.8 Upper Jhelum 30.4 30.4* 49.7 48.3 Lower Jhelum 39.0 41.7 55.3 52.8 48.0 Pakpattan 34.5* 33.6 55.5 52.2 Dipalpur 29.9* 30.1* 54.5 * Mailsi 36.5* 34.6* 55.5 * Haveli 36.5 35.5 55.5 49.5 46.1 Rangpur 28.9* 28.4* 54.8 * Jowar Central Bari Doab 7.1 5.4* 22.6 15.2 Lower Bari Doab 8.6 7.3 25.7 12.9 25.0 Upper Chenab 9.3 ** 22.9 10.9 ** Lower Chenab 6.6 9.8 23.9 15.6 13.3 Upper Jhelum 5.9 5.8* 22.3 18.9 Lower Jhelum 5.5 7.2 25.5 19.0 12.9 Pakpattan 6.0* 7.2 25.8 21.8 Dipalpur 5.9* 25.1 * Mailsi 6.1* 6.1* 25.8 * Haveli 7.5 7.5 25.8 16.0 16.0 Rangpur 6.7* 6.4* 25.3 * See footnotes at end of table. 430



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monthly values given in this paper were multiplied by 0.771, as recommended by Rohwer, to make formula applicable to reservoir evaporation. The computations by methods 1, 2, and 3 are based on average monthly meteorological data obtained from "Climatological Tables of Observations in India, 1953". The averages are for the period 1881-1940, except stations Bahawalpur and Khanpur, which period is 1926-1940. 410



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Hodges, R. C., Aerial resource survey of West Pakistan: Canadian Geographer no. 8, p. 63-69, 1956. Holtz, W. G., Thick compacted earth linings for canals, prepared for the Third Congress of the International Commission on Irrigation and Drainage-1957: Question 7, Canal linings, Denver, Commissioner's Off., 17 p., 1956 (U.S. Bur. of Reclamation, earth laboratory report no. EM-462). Hoon, R. C., Characteristics of ground water of area to be commanded by the Rajasthan Canal project: Irrigation and Power Journal of (India) Central Board of Irrigation and Power, v. 19, no. 6, June, 1962. Hora, Sunder Lal, and Ahmad, Nazir, Culture of katli, Barbus (Lissochilus) hexagonolepis McClelland, in the Darjeeling Himalayas: Alipore, Bengal, Bengal Govt. Press, 8 p., 1946. Hughes, A. W., Gazeteer of the province of Sind: George Bell and Sons, London, 1784, 1876. Humlum, J., Karezes, Su construccion, funcionamiento y extension el viejo mundo: XX Internat. Geol. Cong. Mexico, Seccion IVGeohidrologia de Regiones Aridas y Sub-Aridas, p. 155, 1957. Hunting Technical Services, Ltd., Gala perennial area, report no. 2, 1961: Soil, Agricultural and Engineering Investigations, London, I v., 1962. -----Ghulam Mahammed Barrage Command., report no. 4: London, 3 v., 1961. Contents--v. 1. Phase 1. Soil and agricultural investigations; v. 2. Phase 1. Engineering investigations; v. 3. Tando bago perennial area, soil, agricultural and engineering investigations. ------Sukkur-Gudu-Ghulam Mohammed drainage and salinity control project, Kahirpur command for West Pakistan Water and Power Development Authority.. London, 2 v., 1961. Contents--v. 1. Soil and agricultural investigations; v. 2. Engineering investigations. ------Drawings and maps: London, 1 v., 1961. Hussain, Tajdar, and Bhatt, A. K., Floods in River Indus, their frequency and magnitude: Indus, v. 2, no. 8, p. 27-30, 1961. India agricultural production team, Report on India's food crisis and steps to meet it. Sponsored by the Ford Foundation, Delhi, 259 p., 1959. 388



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Chapter 5 3. Inadequate technical knowledge of methods and times of application. Attainable yield increases depend critically on proper use. 4. Limitations on yield from other causes than insufficient plant nutrients, such as high salt content of the soil, inadequate water, or poor seeds. This last limitation can be stated inversely. By leaching the soil, increas ing water supplies to crops, and using improved plant varieties, the yield per acre from fertilizer can be considerably increased above the values assumed in Table 5.9. Even without these improvements on presently cultivated acre age, relatively high percentage increases can be obtained by the combined use in the same project area of fertilizer plus additional water from tubewells, to increase the cropping intensity, eliminate fallow lands, bring presently unused culturable land under the plow, and modify cropping patterns. Applied to the economy of a million acre tract, assuming the cropping pattern of Table 5.110 the fertilizer doses. recommended by the Planning Commission would contribute Rs. 4.5 crore to the gross value of annual output, at a cost of Rs. 1.8 crore per year. The net gain attainable from the widespread use of chemical fertilizers is therefore nearly Rs. 3 crore per year in a typical project area. The computations in Table 5.10 show how the application of nitrogen fertilizer in the moderate doses recommended by the Planning Commission can increase the gross value of farm output per year in our illustrative million acre tract to Rs. 34.4 crore. This is 22 percent more than can be obtained by the addition of tubewell water alone and the extension of cultivation made pos sible by the tubewell water,, and 127 percent greater than the annual value produced under current conditions. The cost of the 38 million pounds of nitrogen fertilizer required for this increase is Rs. 1.8 crore, so that the net gain over what is attainable with only current practice with respect to fertilization is about Rs. 4.4 crore, Rs. 36 per gross acre sown. A well rounded, program of agricultural improvement includes many other measures over and above the provision of adequate water supplies and fertilizers. Such additional measures as field protection of crops and the use of improved seed varieties, adapted to local climate and conditions, have been mentioned several times in the description of the complete program. As discussed in Chapter 2, the Planning Commission has estimated the gains from plant protection and use of better seeds that are already available in 198



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Chapter 2 Better cultivation tools and practices, and more efficient bullocks In view of the small size of cultivated plots, the lack of supporting maintenance facilities, and the ample supply of unskilled labor, West Pakistan is not yet ready for extensive mechanization of farming. For the present, bullocks should continue to serve as the main source of farm power, but their efficiency for cultivation can be greatly increased through the use of improved implements and better feeding. Improved bullock-drawn implements, including furrow-turning plows, rotary hoes, seeders, and fertilizer applicators, have been developed within the Province, but few farmers have them. These implements should be further improved where possible, produced in mass quantities, and made generally available. Where the farm size is insufficient to justify purchase of an implement, then perhaps the implement could be made available on a rental basis. Because of inadequate feeding, bullocks are often too weak to cultivate land efficiently and to draw improved implements. In such cases, their customary feed (rice straw, ditch bank clippings, etc.) should be supplemented with grain, especially when the animals are worked. Better cultivation tools and more efficient bullocks can be used to bring about increased yields in several ways: (1) by making possible better grading for irrigation, better seed bed preparation and more timely planting; (2) by facilitating row planting and cultivation, the proper spacing of seeds in the row, and the uniform application of fertilizer; and (3) by permitting better weed control. Expansion of agricultural research and education Sufficient agricultural research has been performed in the Province and especially in more developed countries, to indicate ways for increasing agricultural production in West Pakistan. But there remains a great need for additional research.. mostly of an applied nature, to work out details, solve unique problems, and adapt known principles and methods to local conditions. For example, it is quite evident that increased use of commercial fertilizer will markedly increase yields per acre, but the best kinds. amounts, and methods., and time of application for various crops, especially in combination with other practices, is not known. Likewise,, 109



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AVERAGE RAINFALL,IN INCHES, DURING RABI SEASON 4" Source: Indus Basin Working Party Set*15 (Pakistan) Statement A (6) ATTOCK Campellpa4re "NA SISMAIL RW INDI s. r T ALA LB D E A T RF101 /H, ,A -d 9 ODRACA UZAFFARGARH JAGU CAALarewo HAG6> C JO MANG C150A HIMYAR4 KHUAN J0 AHAWALPU'R C N A DO0AE6 GUIJRAN WALA SILKOT MONTGOMERY SHEKUPURe 0 ,4,4aNuo O TR AL AoLsO woR~s D/ AL P U RKA AHAIVlACANAL M AP I.3



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Chapter 7 release of bank storage. During the monsoon period in the summer, heavy prolonged rains in some years may increase the flows to massive discharges and cause damaging floods. In Table 7.1, values are given of seasonal and annual mean flows, and the standard deviation of flows for the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab Rivers, as based on a thirty-five year record starting in 1921. The total mean annual flow from these three western rivers is 138 million acre feet per year.(2) The serial correlation between flows of the Indus River in successive years is quite high -the product moment correlation coefficient is 0.4 -indicating that there is a definite tendency for wet years to follow wet years, and dry years to follow dry years. This tendency is unusual in the great rivers of the world. The serial correlation between successive annual flows on the SJhelum and Chenab Rivers is low and not statistically significant. In Figure 7.1, the average relative magnitudes of the monthly flows for the three rivers have been plotted. The proportion of the runoff occurring in the Kharif season is 83 percent of the total. There are few good dam sites in West Pakistan for the creation of large reservoirs. This circumstance and the high degree of serial correlation between successive annual flows on the Indus River, which impairs the efficiency of regulation, combine to make surface storage expensive and therefore of limited use in the management of the water resource. The irrigation plain area is remarkably level. The ground slopes gently toward the southwest. The average gradient from the northern rim to the Arabian Sea is about'one foot per mile. This mild slope makes it difficult and expensive to utilize surface drainage extensively for the return of irrigation flow to the rivers. The plain lies on an enormous downwarp which contains sands, silts, and other materials That have been deposited in past geological ages by the Indus River and its tributaries. The deposition of alluvium occurred over a period of several million years. When the deposits rose high enough a great lake was formed. The waters of this lake spilled over and finally o~ut through the Aravali Salt Range and the submerged extension of pre -tertiary rock formation between the Punjab and the Sind. Sinee the drainage of the lake, the rivers have had no permanent channels and have moved with freedom over the plain in meandering courses for thousands of years. At the present time in the irrigation plain, 19.5 million acres of Oulturable land are commanded by the irrigation system in the Former (2)This figure is slightly higher than that given in Table 1.2 because a different number of years of record was used. 259



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Table 2. 4 (Continued) Observed and Estimated Responses of Different Crops to Nitrogen Fertilizer in Irrigated Areas of West Pakistan Average Amount Increase yield of in lbs. without Yield Nitrogen of crop fertilizer increase applied per lbs. Crop Source of Data lbs. /acre lbs. /acre % lbs. /acre of N Other Vege-, Planning Commission Estimate 7,000 990 14 52 19.0 tables Fodder Planning Commission Estimate -3,295 -34 97.0 Wahhab (1960) Estimate -5,900 -52 113.2 Sources of Data Farm Experience from Survey Report on Use of Fertilizer in Pakistan; Directorate of Agricultural Economics and Statistics, Ministry of Food and Agriculture; Rawalpindi; April 1961 Wahhab-Vermaat Experiments from "Response of Wheat to Fertilizer in West Pakistan, 1960-61"; Unpublished data of Abdul Wahhab, Lyallpur Agricultural College Planning Commission Estimates from "Self Sufficiency in Foodgrains and Agricultural Production Targets for the Second Plan (1960-61 to 1964-65); Government of Pakistan, Agriculture; August 1959 Wahhab (1960) Estimates from Fifty Years Research in Soils, Fertilizers and Soil Microbiology by A. Wahhab; Department of Agriculture, West Pakistan; 1960 120



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Chapter 8 The project area administrations should not undertake the complete responsibility for the research and development they require. Where appropriate, and there will be many such opportunities, they should make use of the facilities of the universities and technical schools by the familiar devices of research grants and contracts. This will provide the two-fold advantage of strengthening the local institutions and of diversifying the sources of information and innovation required to speed up the development process. Thus we forsee that the agricultural development program can make a significant contribution to training in agricultural technology and related Fields in Pakistan. Nevertheless, the bulk of the responsibility must be borne by the agricultural universities themselves, and they must be provided with the funds and facilities necessary for discharging this responsibility, and for discharging it on a scale that will permit the staffing of an ultimate two dozen agricultural development projects. We are all too well aware of the burden that this responsibility places on the agricultural training facilities in Pakistan, but we are sure that they will gladly face up to it. 375



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Table A.5.2 Estimated Water Supply by Canal and Season (Inches) Rabi Kharif Canal and Crop Year Canal Rain Total Canal Rain Total Lower Bari Doab 1955-56 13.2 2.7 15.9 20.5 6.2 26.7 1956-57 17.2 2.0 19.2 20.5 16.5* 37.0 1957-58 14.4 1.5 15.9 Central Bari Doab 1955-56 9.6 4.5 14.1 16.1 9.7 25.8 1956-57 12.2 5.1 17.3 26.5 7.1 33.6 1957-58 23.1 2.4 25.4 Upper Chenab 1955-56 7.1 4.2 11.3 23.6 9.7 33.3 1956-57 10.9 6.5 17.4 19.4 8.5 27.9 1957-58 11.5 4.1 15.6 Lower Chenab 1955-56 10.2 2.4 12.6 20.9 8.6 29.5 1956-57 12.5 3.8 16.3 20.2 5.8 26.0 1957-58 12.3 2.8 15.1 Upper Jhelum 1955-56 12.6 5.0 17.6 19.3 12.0 31.3 1956-57 15.1 5.5 20.6 19.3 14.1 33.4 1957-58 14.3 4.2 18.5 Lower Jhelum 1955-56 11.5 4.9 16.4 19.2 11.1 30.3 1956-57 12.0 5.7 17.7 19.2 6.6 25.8 1957-58 14.0 3.5 17.5 Pakpattan 1955-56 10.8 1.9 12.7 32.8 7.5 40.3 1956-57 16.7 1.6 18.3 28.8 5.5 34.3 1957-58 13.6 1.4 15.0 Dipalpur 1955-56 -3.5 3.5 34.6 8.3 42.9 1956-57 7.9 3.3 11.2 31.9 8.1 40.0 1957-58 2.5 1.2 3.7 See footnote at end of table. 434



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Table 1.12 Land Use in the Indus Plain and Surrounding Areas Average for 1949-50 through 1958-59 Percent of Total Area Area in Millions of Acres Percent of Cultivated Area not Culturable District Total Culturable Cultivated Current Gross Canal Persian Canal Saline & Gross Current Culturable Saline & or Division area area area fallows area commanded well irrigated waterlogged area fallows but not waterlogged sown area irrigation area area sown cultivated Punjab and NWFP Attack 2.67 1.34 1.14 0.14 1.05 # N.A. # 0 92.2 12.5 18.0 0 49.9 Jhelum 1.77 0.90 0.73 0.07 0.70 # 0.02 # 0.05 95.9 10.2 23.9 7.3 49.1 Mianwali 3.44 2.65 1.41 0.24 1.20 0.66 0.03 0.13 10.01 84.6 16.7 87.6 0.2 22.8 Musaffargarh 3.56 2.92 0.86 0.14 0.80 1.42 0.20 0.52 0.22 92.5 16.2 238.4 25.0 17.9 Rawalpindi 1.32 0.70 0.58 0.03 0.61 # 0.01 # 0 104.1 5.7 19.0 0 47.3 Guirenwala 1.47 1.29 0.95 0.10 1.07 1.01 0.31 0.62 0.39 111.9 10.4 34.5 40.6 12.7 Jhang 2.17 1.92 1.18 0.16 1.02 1.04 0.18 0.79 0.30 86.9 13.3 63.5 25.4 11.5 lyallpur 2.25 2.05 1.77 0.13 1.86 1.71 0.05 1.89 0.18 105.3 7.2 16.1 10.4 8.8 Sheikhupura 1.48 1.34 0.94 0.10 1.00 1.20 0.11 0.88 0.50 107.1 10.7 42.4 52.8 9.8 Slalkot 1.32 1.12 1.06 0.07 1.10 0.01 0.37 0.2 .1 103.7 6.9 5.7 0.4 15.2 GuJrat 1.46 1.20 1.05 0.05 1.11 0.52 0.15 0.18 0.05 105.5 4.5 14.2 5.0 17.8 Shahpur 3.07 2.56 1.90 0.27 1.72 1.24 0.06 1.25 0.12 90.8 14.2 34.7 6.2 16.7 Lahore 1.41 1.15 0.97 0.15 0.93 0.97 0.22 0.78 0.10 96.4 16.0 18.8 9.8 18.3 Montgoery 2.72 2.42 1.97 0.25 2.02 2.18 0.10 1.98 0.19 102.7 12.6 23.0 9.9 11.0 o Multan 3.60 3.26 2.42 0.27 2.41 2.79 0.06 2.47 0.31 99.5 11.0 34.6 12.6 9.5 D. G. Khan 3.48 2.42 1.06 0.39 0.69 0.71 0.02 0.32 0 65.1 36.9 128.3 0 30.4 D. 1. Khan 2.21 1.66 0.60 0.16 0.45 0.10 (?) N.A. 0.06 0 75.6 25.9 176.8 0 25.2 Total 39.40 30.90 20.59 2.72 19.74 15.56 1.89 12.19 2.41 95.9 13.2 50.1 11.9 21.6 Bahawalpor Bahawalpur 1.23 0.93 0.70 0.09 0.70 N.A. N.A. 0.69 -99.7 12.6 32.2 -24.8 Bahawalhagar 1.74 l.44 1.13 0.14 1.14 N.A. N.A. 1.03 100.3 12.3 27.0 16.8 Rahinyar Khan 1.75 1.48 1.13 0.13 1.11 N.A. N.A. 1.14 98.2 11.5 31.4 15.4 Total 4.72 3.85 2.96 0.36 2.95 40 2.86 0.50 99.4 12.1 29.9 16.9 18.4 Sind Khairpur 9.22 5.51 4.32 1.49 3.16 N.A. N.A. --73.2 34.4 27.5 -40.3 Hyderabad 21.01 11.81 6.75 3.03 3.76 N.A. N.A. 55.7 4.8 74.9 -43.8 Total 30.23 17,32 11.07 4.52 6.92 12.0 6.11 2.1 -3.6 (?) 62.5 40.8 56.4 30 -52 (?) 42.7 Gran, Total 74.35 52.07 34.62 7.60 29.61 21.16 5.0 -6.5 (?) 85.5 21.9 50.4 14 -19 (?) 30.0 # .Less than 500 acres Source: Statistics of West Pakistan, Agricultural Data N.A. = Data not available by Division and District, 1 7-48 through 1958-59



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Chapter 7 a million acres, roughly forty miles on a side. An area of these dimensions has a number of economic merits apart from hydrology. But also it has advantages from the standpoint of water management. Hydrological considerations pertaining to project size include the following: (1) Project areas should be selected to fall within areas commanded by major canals. Two or three project areas may be developed in each canal area; (2) The project area should be large enough to warrant the maintenance of a permanent engineering staff consisting of irrigation, drainage, electrical and mechanical engineers. A properly staffed chemical analysis laboratory will be needed in regions where salinity and alkalinity control is important. A minimum staff of three or four senior engineers would be required to operate the complex of canals, drains, tubewells, observation wells, laboratories and electric power facilities as an efficient integrated system. A project area of one million acres is sufficiently large to support a senior staff of the size together with an adequate number of junoir engineers and technicians. Smaller project areas with a smaller number of senior engineers might not be coordinated properly and operational efficiency might be impaired; (3) The project area should be sufficiently large so that the tubewells will be effective in lowering the water table in a reasonable length of time. Small project areas have relatively a larger perimeter for lateral infiltration of ground water from unpumped lands than large areas. The effect of lateral infiltration in retarding the rate at which the water table can be lowered is exemplified in the experience with the Jaranwala test project, which began in 1958, in which 90,000 acres were to be pumped by 145 wells. The wells were operated during the first few years over only about half the area. The water level dropped only three feet in thirty-six months of continuous pumping. Earlier test installations of tubewells showed little or no effectiveness in lowering the water table. In the next section a mathematical treatment of the lateral infiltration problem is presented. Lateral Infiltration of Ground Water into Project Areas from Unpumped Lands The rate at which ground water will flow into a project area in which the water table has been lowered by tubewells will depend on the following factors: (1) the transmissibility and the coefficient of storage of the aquifer; and (2) the gradient of the water table normal to the perimeter of the project area. The gradient at various points around the perimeter will be a function of (i) the geometry of the project area in relation to the surrounding area; (ii) the presence or absence in the region of major sources of ground water recharge such as rivers; (iii) the magnitude of the rate of ground water recharge from canal and watercourse seepage and irrigation and rainfall over the project area and the region outside -generally the recharge rate will be larger inside the project area than outside because of back-seepage 290



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Chapter 7 The interpretation of Region I, given a broad range of relative benefits, L, is that the relative unit cost of export, F, is low in relation to the relative unit cost, M, of providing the necessary surface water to be mixed with this mined water. In other words, if the relative benefits, L, are not high enough to warrant using for irrigation purposes, the entire 90 percent of the 2.9 maf/yr mined in the saline area, it will be more economical to export more than 10 percent of this source than to provide the necessary excess surface water, y, as required by constraint 3. If not enough land is available in the northernmost part of the Plain, some water should be exported from this region to the salty areas in the central parts of the Doab. The interpretation of Region II, given a broad range of relative benefits, L, is that it is more economical to provide excess surface water, y, in the saline area to mix with the mined water than it is to export more than 10 percent of the 2.9 maf/yr that must be mined in the saline area. Mf Effects of an Increase in the Salinity of Recharge Water in the Saline Area, A, on the Optimal Choice of Values for the Decision Variables y, z and w. As discussed in a subsequent section of this chapter, there are a number of operational difficulties and uncertainties associated with the skimming of a layer of recharge-water from a deep layer of saline ground water. The assumptions as to the quality of the ground water made in this analysis of the saline area problem are based on data presently available. Although we believe our assumptions are reasonable and conservative, it is possible we have been over-optimistic about ground water quality. In the following calculation we show that our design decision is robust -that the decision to use part of the mined water for agriculture after mixture with surface water would remain valid even though it turned out in practice that the quality of recharge-water pumped was considerably poorer than expected. The salinity of the applied irrigation water in the saline area, C, for optimal values of the decision variables y, z and w is shown in the pre ceeding table for Regions Iland II on Figure 7.6, to be less than the maximum allowable values of (say) either 1500 or 2000 mg/liter. This would indicate that the salinity of the recharge water in the saline area, A, may be increased above the value of 1200 mg/liter allowed in the mathematical model, without altering the optimal choice of values for the decision variables y, z and w. The following table demonstrates just how large the value of A may become before it has any effect on the decision variables. The calculations have been based on A = 1200 mg/liter and maximum allowable salinities of the applied irrigation water, CMAX, of 1500 and 2000 mg/liter. This table clearly demonstrates that the salinity of pumped recharge -water can vary over a wide range without affecting the design decision. For example, in design based on Region I, which we have adopted in completing the water budget and estimating the over-all cost of tubewell water, the salinity of the recharge -water could be as high as 4,020 mg/ liter without causing the salinity of the water applied to the crops to exceed 2000 mg/liter. 280



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Chapter 1 Milk production per cow is very low; approximately 1300 pounds per year for cattle and 1800 pounds per year for buffaloes. Laying hens average only about 6-7 dozen eggs per year. Perhaps 60 percent of the milk production is used for human food; the remainder is fed to calves. Variability in Production, Acreage under Cultivation, and Yield Wheat production fell from a 1950 high of almost 4 million tons to. less than two-thirds of that amount in the drought year of 1952. The acreage planted in wheat was less sensitive to environmental conditions; but the average yield dropped from 830 pounds per acre in 1949 to a low of 560 in 1952. From 1953 to 1960 the average yield fluctuated between 660 and 750 pounds per acre, while acreage and production increased from 10.4 million acres and 3.6 million tons in 1953 to 12.1 million acres and 3.85 million tons in 1959. Maize varied in yield from a drought low of 800 pounds per acre to a 1956 high of 960 pounds per acre. The production of maize fluctuated in a similar way. Barley production dipped to a drought low in 1952 of 92 thousand tons from a 1949 high of 145. It went up to 158 thousand tons in 1958 and again dipped by 13 percent in 1959. Sorghum (jowar) production varied erratically from a high near 290 thousand tons in 1953 to lows of 200 and 180 thousand tons in 1951 and 1957. The rice crop went from a 1951 low of 720 thousand tons to about 820 thousand tons during 1954-56, and thence to a higher level, averaging 980 thousand tons, for the years 1958-60. The area under rice cultivation during 1954-56 averaged about 2.4 million acres. Recently it has climbed, and reached a peak in 1959 of almost 3 million. Raw sugar (gur) production has fairly consistently increased, going from a low of 0.54 million tons in 1951 to a peak of 1.2 in 1958. Acreage planted to sugar increased more rapidly than production, and, correspondingly, yield per acre decreased regularly from a 1949 high of 3,160 pounds of raw sugar to a 1960 low of 20380. Over the last eight years, cotton has shown little variation in yield from around 190 pounds of lint per acre. During this period, annual production of lint has also remained relatively constant, at 270 to 300 thousand tons. The Pattern of Land Use In Table 1.12, we have brought together data on the cultivated and culturable areas in the different administrative Districts of the Indus Plain and adjoining regions. More than 30 percent of the total reported area is not culturable. Over the decade 1949-50 through 1958-59, an average of 2/ 3 of the culturable land was actually cultivated. As we shall show below, the area of cultivated land has been increasing at a 43



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10. How many cattle per herdsman? ;Appendix A..6 11. What kind of controls of livestock movements are possible with regard to: a. Water holes? b. Fencing? c. Feeding areas? 12. What are the best local breeds in terms of: a. Yield of wool? b. Quality of wool? c. Yield of meat? d. Quality of hides? e. Heat and Drought resistance? f. Reproductive capacity? g. Disease resistance? 13. What are the usual rates of gain? 14. What are the major diseases and parasites? 15. What are the present methods of disease control? 16. Is disease control possible on a commerical or public level? 17. Is there range policing, and by whom? 18. What are the possibilities of importing breeding stock? 19. What are the landed costs of imported livestock and feed? 20. What happens to milling by-products that could be used as livestock feed? 21. What are the possible uses of P. L. 480 grains for livestock? 439



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Table 5.6 Water Use on Million Acre Tract Served by Lower Chenab Canal, Assuming Full Maintenance Watering Crop Thousand Yield (1) Farm Value/ Irrigation Value per acres (mds/acre) Price acre water acre-in. (Rs/md) Requirement Rabi Wheat 322 12.4 12.8 159 11 14.4 Barley 6 10.5 10.0 105 11 9.5 Gram 58 10.2 13.2 135 21 6.4 Oilseeds 33 7.0 22.9 160 10 16.0 Fodder, etc. 81 -127 (2) 16 7.9 Kharif Rice 10 14.1 15.1 213 38 5.6 Sugar cane 66 31.5 15.9 500 49 10.2 Jawar 2 8.2 12,2 100 21 4.8 Bajra 10 8.3 13.5 112 19 5.9 Maize 50 13.4 11.7 157 18 8.7 Cotton 106 7.5 30.7 229 34 6.8 Fodder, etc. 116 .... 138(3) 21 6.6 Value: Rabi crops Rs 75.2 106 Kharif crops 84.6 Total 159.8 Water used: 1435 x l03 acre ft. (1) Potential yields from Table 5.4. (2) 6% increase corresponding to increase in water supplied from 79% to 100% of requirements. (3) 15% increase correspondingly to increase in water supplied from 62.5% to 100% requirement. 218



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Table 5.14 Potential Increases in the Value of Output by Changing Production Patterns in Khairpur Model IA* Model IB** Model IC*** Commodity Net Net Net Acreage Value Acreage Value Acreage Value (rupees) (rupees) (rupees) Rice Cotton Sorghum 59,000 3,304,000 Summer Fodder 11,800 0 13,100 0 27,200 0 Summer Vegetables Wheat 13,500 1,620,000 83j400 10,008,000 Gram Oilseeds 42,4800 5,778,000 Winter Fodder 9,400 0 10,500 0 21,800 0 Winter Vegetables 58,100 9,006,000 45,200 7,006,000 17,700 2,744,000 Sugarcane 65,400 29,757,000 64,100 29,166,000 10,000 4,550,000 Orchards Meat Production 19,000 9952000 17,600 880,000 64,000 3,200,000 (Animal units) Milk Production 307,800 4,617,000 293,400 4,401,000 906,100 13,592,000 (Maunds) Work Livestock 18,800 0 24,600 0 28,500 0 (Head) Total Value of Production: Rs 44,375,000. Rs 48,851,000. Rs 37,398,000. Total Acreage: 144,700 acres 189,200 acres 219,100 acres Value/ Commanded Acre: Rs 171 Rs 189 Rs 144 Value of Output as percent of Present: 151 percent 166 percent 127 percent *No limitations on production pattern. **Assuming an additional 10,000 acre feet of irrigation water in January. ***An example of a "Second-Best" solution. Sugarcane limited to 10,000 acres. 226



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Chapter 3 of Agricultural Economics and Statistics(3) indicates that about 20 percent of the farmers were using commercial fertilizer, even though only about 3 percent of the cultivated land was covered. The sample was composed of 2,160 cultivators drawn from 180 villages in 15 different Districts of West Pakistan. This percentage use of fertilizer is an encouraging figure. By applying fertilizer only on crops offering the greatest return, the farmers show an alert awareness of economic factors. Supplies have only recently been available in most of the Districts. Extension efforts have been modest. Less than optimal amounts of irrigation water are common in many of the sample Districts, and credit facilities are poorly developed. A study of a village in the Comilla Project in East Pakistan by the Pakistan Academy for Village Development(4) shows encouraging results. The project consists of 64,000 acres in which limited. experiments in development are being carried out. This tudy area is about 1/ 16 of the million-acre unit we recommend for West Pakistan. The Comilla Project corresponds in size to a reasonable sub-unit of one of our projects. In the village of study, 36.5 percent of the farmers had adopted the use of fertilizer. Their average time of adoption was 3.8 years after first becoming aware of the practice. This figure is based on experience during the decade from 1950 to 1960. There is some indication that the time required from awareness to adoption is decreasing with increasing technical assistance at the village level. The possibilities for use of fertilizer in developing countries are well demonstrated. Domestic use of commercial nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizers(5) in Mexico grew from less than 50,000 tons in 1940 to over 750,000 tons in 1955. Plant construction has kept pace, and is expected to increase several fold in the future. During 1962, the Government of India had to curtail investment in industry to release foreign exchange for increased importation of chemical fertilizer. (3)Survey Report on Use of Fertilizer in Pakistan; Directorate of Agricultural Economics and Statistics, Ministry of Food and Agriculture; Rawalpindi; April 1961. (4)Diffusion and Adoption of Agricultural Practices, A Study in a Village in East Pakistan; S. A. Rahim; Technical Publication No. 7; Pakistan Academy for Village Development; Comilla; April 1961. (5) "Technical Aid and Agricultural Chemistry"; J. G. Harrar; "Journal of Agricultural and Food Chemistry"; Vol. 3, pp. 395-398; American Chemical Society; 1955. 147



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Chapter 1 Most of the remaining area was shaped by the rivers as they wandered over the Plain., and is covered with alluvial sands and silts. Five land forms made by the major rivers can be distinguished. Active flood plains, covering 5.2 million acres, lie adjacent to the rivers and are inundated during the summer floods, when erosion and deposition take place on a vast scale. The soil is sufficiently permeable to allow excess water to drain off after the floods recede, permitting much of the land to be cropped during the winter months. This type of irrigation, called Sailab, is the most ancient in the Indus Plain. The soils of the active flood plains are much finer in the Former Sind than in the upper reaches of the Indus and its tributaries, but, in general, sands predominate. Meander flood plains, found beside active flood plains of major rivers, and beside recently -abandoned river courses, were created by the rivers in former times as they changed course in wandering across the land. The relatively coarse soils of the meander flood plains are minutely stratified in a complex pattern. Ancient bars, meander scrolls, levees, and oxbow depressions remain stenciled on the land surface even after irrigation leveling, and still give evidence of the ancient rivers. Recently -abandoned river channels, bordered by ancient natural levees, run through Chaj, Rechna, and Bani Doabs. The channels form natural drains,. and are widely waterlogged with numerous marshes and swamps. The levees are usually above the level of the canal commands, and are unirrigated. Cover flood plains were formed by slow moving sheet floods that deposited a monotonously flat mantle of fine-grained alluvium. Whatever small relief may have existed has been largely obliterated by leveling for irrigation. In some places, cover flood plains lie next to the active flood plains that are still annually inundated by the rivers; in other areas, such as the Former Sind, the active flood plain of the Indus is bordered by relatively high meander flood plains over which the River wandered in past times before it cut its present channel. Farther from the Indus and still parallel to it, belts of cover flood plain take the form of broad basins lower than the meander flood plains and perhaps as low as the present Indus bed itself. In the centers of Bari, Rechna, and Chaj Doabs, elongated, extremely level plains exist, normally lacking any sign of modification by meandering rivers or sheet floods. These "bars" of the three eastern Doabs, containing about 4.5 million acres formed by the ancient rivers before the cutting of the meander and 24



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Ahmad, Nazir, Preliminary report on the survey of fresh water fishery resources of West Pakistan: Lahore, Govt. Print. West Pakistan, 89 p., 1961. Preservation and curing of fish in East Pakistan: Pakistan Jour. of Sci., 5 (3), p. 117-122, July, 1953. Socio-economics of fishing industry: Co-operation, 3 (3 & 4), p. 56-60, March-April, 1953. -Stocking of fish-ponds in East Pakistan: Dacca, East Pakistan Govt. Press, 5 p., 1957. A suggestion for producing quality food with cost: Economic Observer, p. 5, August 1, 1953. ---Transplantation of food fish in East Pakistan: Pakistan Jour. of Sci,, 8 (4), p. 167-170, July, 1956. ----Canal lining investigations: Indus, vol. 2, no. 9, October, 1961. Control of waterlogging and salinity by tube well pumping: Pak. Jour. of Sci., vol. 14, no. 2, March, 1962. Control of waterlogging and salinity by tube well pumping, a critical review: Agri. Pak., December, 1962. Drainage of irrigated soils in arid regions, a review on the drainage measures adopted by various countries and a discussion of the information available in the Punjab: Proc. Engg. Cong. Paper no. 312, vol. 39, 1955. Dynamics of ground water with special reference to tube wells: Proc. Int. Symposium, Ankara, Unesco, 19 Avenue Kleber, Paris, 1952. Exploitation of ground water, a review of technique developed in Pakistan: Engg. News, vol. 7, no. 1, March, 1962. Flood embankments practice in Sind: Engg. News, vol. 14, no. 4, December, 1959. ...... Flow lines through embankment with heterogeneous and stratified medium: Proc. Punjab Engg. Cong. Paper no. 299, vol. 37, 1952. .....-Ground water resources and their utilization in West Pakistan: 4th Regional Conf. Ceylon ECAFE, Colombo, December, 1960. Ground water flow around a well installed in Rechna Doab: Proc. Punjab Engg. Cong. Paper no. 305, vol. 38, 1954. 377



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Appendix A. 5 to allow for transit losses between the point of measurement of the diversions and the fields. Finally, the total supply of water to the crops was estimated by adding these estimates of effective precipitation and canal water supplies. The estimates used are given in Table A.5.2. The irrigated acreage under each crop in each canal system was required both for the weighting steps described above and for substitution into equation (4). These acreages are given for each agricultural district and cropping season in the series of reports entitled Report on the Seasons and Crops of Northern Zone, West Pakistan, for the Agricultural Year ending 30th June 1957 (Lahore: Superintendent, Government Printing, West Pakistan 1959). These acreages by agricultural district were converted to acreages by canal system by summing the acres under each crop in each agricultural district served by each canal, apportioning the acres in those districts served by several canals. The Report on the Seasons and Crops also gives harvest prices for major crops by agricultural district. These were converted into average prices for each canal system by the same process of averaging. This same report includes estimates of yields per acre for major crops, by agricultural district, in the form of estimates of normal yield and percent of normal realized in each cropping season. These estimates, again, were averaged in order to obtain estimates of actual yield for each crop and each canal system. The saturation depth of water supply for each crop depends on the dates of sowing and harvesting and the rates of evapotranspiration in the region between those dates. Normal dates of sowing and harvesting of the major crops in various parts of the Punjab are given in Crops, Vegetables, and Fruits in Pakistan (Karachi: Ministry of Food & Agriculture, 1959.) Monthly rates of potential evapotranspiration at four stations in the Punjab are given in Appendix A.. 1. These estimates, or values interpolated from them, were used to estimate the monthly rate of evapotranspiration for each canal system. With these data at hand, the total evapotranspiration during the growing season of each crop, which is the same as the saturating water supply, was computed by cumulating the rate of evapotranspiration for the crop's growing season. It should be noted that these estimates do not include any allowance for pre-sowing irrigation. Finally, these data were substituted into equations (2), (3), (4), which, when solved simultaneously, gave the estimates presented in Table A.5.1. 422



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Chapter 1 which 73.6 million acre feet went to canals in West Pakistan, and 10.0 to those in India. The prepartition withdrawals of Indian canals were 8.1 million acre feet, but we believe this has increased by about 2 million acre feet with the construction of the Harike barrage and Madhopur-Beas link canal. Average annual withdrawals for each of the major canal systems in the Indus Plain over the five-year period are shown in Table 1.2. The annual canal diversions vary considerably from year to year. For example, in 1956-57, the last year of the five-year period, the diversions to West Pakistan canals amounted to 92 million acre feet compared with the average of 73.6 million acre feet. With the completion of the Indus Settlement Works, the entire flow of the Sutlej and Ravi Rivers, amounting to nearly 33 million acre feet, will be diverted to India. To maintain the present volumes diverted to the Bani Doab and Sutlej canals, it will be necessary to transfer 20 million acre feet from the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab to Bani Doab and Bahawalpur. The average annual river flow available to West Pakistan in the Indus Plain will be only about 136 million acre feet, and canal diversion at the contemplated level will require 68 percent of the total flow. With the comparatively small volume of surface storage now contemplated, and the highly seasonal character of the rivers, this will be difficult to attain. At present, the winter supply of the rivers is almost fully utilized in the perennial canals, but during the summer, from May 15 to September 15 (especially from July to mid-September), the rivers carry surplus water over and above the total capacity of both perennial and non-perennial canals. This surplus water, is not usable at present to support additional agriculture, even supposing an enlargement of canal capacity which would allow the water to be diverted away from the rivers. In order to grow crops successfully, there .must be water not only during the summer growing season, but also during the spring and autumn sowing and maturing periods. If a sufficient number of wells were constructed, some of the surplus water could be used for crops in the Former Punjab (provided canal capacity were also enlarged) by supplementing it during the spring and fall with water pumped from the underground aquifer. In Former Sind it might be possible to store several million acre feet of summer flood water underground by developing recharge areas on the strips of land alongside the active flood plain of the Indus. The water could be pumped out and used for irrigation during the remainder of the year. Even if all the flood water could be saved and used it would be necessary ultimately to allow around 15 million acre feet of return flow t6 run to the sea in order to maintain a salt balance in the underground water and in the soil. In general, maintenance of salt balance will require that over 33



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Chapter 1 In the Former Punjab and northern Former Sind, maximum daily summer temperatures are extremely and consistently high. Mean monthly maxima over 100*F. are not uncommon. June mean maxima at Sukkur and Lahore exceed 1150F. At night, the temperature often falls to less than 700F. The region bordering the Arabian Sea has somewhat lower summer temperatures because of the moderating influence of the sea breeze. Humidity The only humidity data we have been able to f ind(5) are published in terms of relative humidity. This meteorological parameter is difficult to quantify with precision or meaning, either as an annual, a seasonal, or a daily value. Relative humidities are comparatively higher in the foothills of West.Pakistan and near the ocean-cooled coastline of the Arabian Sea than in the major part of the Indus Plain. The southern Former Punjab, Former Bahawalpur, and the northern and central parts of Former Sind are exceedingly dry, especially from the start of the Kharif season in April to the onset of the monsoon in June or July. Potential Evapotranspiration Various methods have been developed to estimate the quantity of water that will evaporate into the air under a given set of meteorological conditions. The factors of greatest importance in determining the magnitude of potential evapotranspiration are air temperature, absolute humidity, wind movement, and solar radiation. Among these, solar radiation is the most significant. Appendix A. 1 gives computations of potential evapotranspiration for selected stations in West Pakistan, utilizing several methods. Unfortunately, direct measurements of solar radiation were not available, and, accordingly, it was necessary to derive this factor from cloud cover data. Estimates of the annual potential evapotranspiration in inches are shown on Map 1.2. Values range from 47 inches in the Salt Range to about 69 inches in Former Bahawalpur. Table 1.1.1 provides an estimate of the potential evapotranspiration values by Rabi and Kharif cropping seasons. (5) Blaney and Griddle (op. cit.) provide data on average relative humidities in the canal-irrigated areas. The Report of the Food and Agriculture Commission of Pakistan, November 1960, also gives data on relative humidity in a table on pages 570-57 1. These appear to be erroneous. 30



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Chapter 2 salinity. A drainage system to insure circulation of water through the soil is also essential, but this could be constructed and maintained much more economically if the cultivated areas were consolidated. In the rice-growing regions of Larkana and adjacent Districts on the right bank of the Indus, the water table must actually be brought to the surface each summer to maintain water on the rice crop in the permeable soils. Under these circumstances drainage is essentially impossible, and during the rabi season, the water simply evaporates, leaving behind a deposit of salt. The resulting salt accumulation has brought about a continuing decline in the yield of rice per acre. This can be expected to persist unless the rice growing areas are shifted to a region where circulation of water can be maintained. Crops that do not require standing water should be planted in the present rice-growing regions. This would allow construction of a relatively economical drainage system. Greater use of Commercial Fertilizers On the basis of present negligible use, field observations, and tests, it is certain that marked increases in yield can be obtained through greatly accelerated use of nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizers. The most extensive series of tests of the effects of fertilizer in West Pakistan was conducted by Dr. Abdul Wahhab, of the Lyallpur Agricultural College, on the winter wheat crop of 1960-61. Working in collaboration with Dr. J. G. Vermaat, of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Dr. Wahhab made a total of 650 trials on farmers' fields using the farmers' usual varieties. Varying amounts of nitrogen, phosphate, and potash were used. In general, the response to potash was small. A summary of the observed responses to nitrogen, and to nitrogen plus phosphate, is shown in Table 2.3. It will be noted that an increase in yield of more than 300 pounds of wheat per acre was obtained by adding 30 pounds of nitrogen (as ammonium sulfate). Only a slightly greater increase was obtained by doubling the amount of nitrogen, but a marked improvement resulted by combining nitrogen and phosphate. With 60 pounds of nitrogen and 60 pounds of phosphate per acre, the yield was increased nearly 50 percent over that obtained from unfertilized plots. 100



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Table 1.15 Total Imports and Imports of Sugar and Food Grains into Pakistan, 1952-60 Commodity Total Food Total Total Sugar Wheat Rice Value Cost Imports Weight Cost Weight Cost Weight Cost Year 106Rs 106 tons 106 Rs 106 tons 106 Rs 106 tons 106 Rs lOl2Calories 106 Rs 1952 1,733 .13 76 .29 110 --1.48 186 1953 628 .04 17 1.06 272 --4.00 289 1954 907 .09 31 .14 23 --.78 54 1955 938 .07 40 ----.23 40 1956 983 .09 49 .44 152 .48 238 3.60 439 1957 2,096 .09 72 .70 265 .42 284 4.38 620 1958 1,888 .05 28 .76 218 .34 203 4.17 449 1959 1,681 --.72 260 .30 158 3.74 418 1960 3,112 --1.32 460 .66 288 7.22 748 Average 1,552 .06 35 .60 195 .24 130 3.29 360 Import data from "Budget 1961-62 -Economic Survey and Statistics, April 1960 March 1961"; Government of Pakistan Press; Karachi 1961 88



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41 Q-x Q x y -z z U-U r-r-Yr rol uf r" Ut ro H-h H h p' P p FIG. 7.20 SCHEMATIC DIAGRAM OF BASIC HYDROLOGIC MODEL FOR DIGITAL COMPUTER S IMULAT ION 356



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Summary A Plan of Action Because agriculture is beset by a wide range of impediments, the attempt to deal with any one of them in isolation will be balked by the presence of the others. Additional irrigation water, more fertilizer, improved seed and crop varieties, pest and disease control, better cultivation, and saltfree soil are complementary factors of production. Each may increase yields 10 to 30 percent when applied singly, but in combination they can give increases of 200 to 300 percent. The interaction between the factors of production is one of the basic principles of agricultural science (See Chapter ,2. Yet a coordinated attack on all these fronts is virtually impossible when dealing with a planted area of upwards of 2 5 million acres. Efforts have been made and are being made to deal with every one of the shortcomings we have mentioned, but in isolation rather than in combination. Inevitably the record has been one of too few men with too little material trying to deal with too large a problem. Our primary recommendation (outlined in detail in Chapter 3) is a reorientation of strategy to concentrate effort on limited project areas. On the administrative side, we recommend a shift from a structure based on function to one based on area. This shift will permit a coordinate attack on all aspects of the agricultural problem in regions of manageable size. We propose that the major part of the culturable lands of the Indus Plain be divided into some 25 to 30 project areas of roughly a million acres, each manned by a competent and adequate staff under the supervision of a vigorous director with responsibility for modernizing the agriculture of his region and provided with the necessary equipment and supplies. In each project area, tubewells or other means of drainage would be constructed to control the level of the groundwater and the soil salt content, and, where possible, to increase the supply of irrigation water. Chemical fertilizer containing 40 to 50 million pounds of nitrogen would be provided each year; together with better seeds and means for control of plant diseases, insects, and weeds. Maintenance shops for machinery and motor vehicles, and facilities for in-service training, applied research, and plant experimentation, would be constructed and operated. The hydrology of groundwater control by tubewells, as well as considerations of effective management (see Chapter 7), indicate a unit of about one million acres as the approximate size of an efficient project area, at least in the Former Punj ab. 4



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Chapter 7 water management and salinity control. Errors of prediction in the later stages of development are in the nature of things larger than those in the initial stages of development. A discussion of some of the uncertainties pertaining to estimates of available water as the ultimate level of develop ment is approached is presented in a subsequent, section, "Second Level of Development." The calculations in the water budget are based on hydrological records of relatively short length (less than forty or fifty years) and therefore are subject to random sampling errors, as well as measurement errors. Runoff data for great rivers exhibit long-term trends and large fluctuations that reflect shifts in global meteorological patterns. The mean flow of the Indus River for the ten-year period starting in 1921 was 85 maf/yr, during the next decade it was 91 maf/yr, and in the following decade, 97 maf/yr. The flow for the entire period can be fitted by a regression line Q = 82.3 + 0.6 t where Q is the mean annual flow in the Indus at Kalabagh, and t is the number of years after 1921. While statistical analysis shows that the regression coefficient is significantly greater than zero, it would be unwise to assume that this upward trend will continue during the next decades. Hurst(6) has investigated long records of hydro -meteorological events and has shown that large long-term fluctuations occur that do not accord with any simple theoretical probability model. Hurst's data for the Nile River are of interest in this connection. From 1871 to 1908 the mean annual flow at Aswan was 104 milliards of cubic meters; and from 1909 to 1945, 82 milliards of cubic meters. In the present state of the science of hydrology such fluctuations cannot reliably be predicted. Estimates of the efficiency of storage provided by dams constructed in accordance with the "Indus Basin Development Fund Agreement" (or _"Settlement Plan") and by other projects to provide additional regulation in the flow of the rivers have been based on the assumption that these would be operated with rule curves to utilize the storage capacity for irrigation. The reliability of our predictions of the effect of surface storage in increasing diversion at the canal heads is limited by the following factors: (1) As stated previously the annual flows in the Indus River exhibit an unusually high degree of serial correlation compared to flows in other great rivers; and this impairs the efficiency of the storage. However, the record of streamflows in' the Indus Basin is not sufficiently long to provide a basis for accurate calculation of the serial (6)Hurst, H. E., Methods of Long -Term Storage in Reservoirs, Institution of Civil Engrs., Part I, Vol. 5, 519-590, Sept. 1956. 267



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Chapter 7 areas. In some places, the water table has risen to the crop root zone, or even to the surface, with the result that large cultivated areas have been and are presently being abandoned. In other places, waterlogging does not exist, but the water table is so close to the surface that water rises through the top soil by capillary conduction in the pores and evaporates, leaving a deposit-of salts behind. The chemical composition of the salts corresponds to dissolved minerals in the river water and includes sodium, calcium and magnesium cations and sulphate, chloride. bicarbonate and carbonate anions. Moreover, the water remaining in the distribution system has been insufficient in amount when applied to the land. With low areal rates of application virtually all the irrigation water evaporates and none is left to wash the salt residual downward to the subsoil below the root zone. The continued evaporation from thinly spread irrigation water and from the high water table caused by distribution system leaks has resulted in high salt accumulations in the soil in many regions especially those in which irrigation has been practiced for many years. Thus the salinity problem is associated both with leakage and with inadequate rates of irrigation. Many observation well records have been kept over the past 60 to 75 years, and these clearly show the changes in the water table with the passage of time. In the Punjab prior to 1900, before the extensive de velopment of the present eanal system, the ground water table lay at depths well below the zone of active evaporation, and losses to the atmosphere were small. With the construction of the canals and smaller diversion channels a steady rise in the water table began. This steady rise continued up to the decade of 1930 to 1940, when with increasing evaporation losses there was a deceleration in the rate of rise. More recently, the water table in most regions has tended to become stabilized. Stabilization occurs typically when a depth of about ten feet below the surface is reached. At this depth an unsteady equilibrium develops in which recharge is balanced by evapotranspiration. The water tables rise and fall with the seasonal irrigation and rainfall patterns and fluctuate from year to year because of variations in rainfall. Correspondingly, the size of the waterlogged areas fluctuates from season to season and from year to. year. The records show that the rate of rise of the water table was not uniform; generally the rate was smaller in the downstream ends of the doabs than in the upper areas. Recharge rates in Bari Doab and in Bahawalpur were markedly smaller than in other regions. The non-uniformity of recharge is due to several factors including differences in soil properties, rainfall, and the density of the water distribution network (area of channels per square mile). In our analysis, for reasons to be discussed, we have used an average potential recharge rate of 0.67 acre feet per acre per year to 261



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Chapter 8 Performance and Design Studies In view of the major importance of engineering works for water control and drainage in the agricultural improvement program, research on the design of such works may be expected to yield significant returns. The central technological feature of our plan for much of the agricultural area of West Pakistan involves the installation of tubewells. To date very little research has been done on the design of wells and associated machinery. No serious investigation and research into failure mechanisms seems to be available. With such a heavy capital investment in tubewells, substantial research effort should be directed toward the development of: cheaper, corrosionresistant casings and linings (plastics, coated steel, and glass): screen design to minimize plugging; and methods of packing. These items are merely indicative of the work needed, other examples are: reliability of pumps; reliability of electric motors under primitive maintenance conditions; andautomatic data processing and scheduling for large-scale pump installation. Canal Linings and Sealants Seepage from the canals and the associated distribution systems is one of the major items in the over-all water budget. In some areas of the Former Punjab and in much of Former Sind, control of the seepage from conveyance channels for saline waste waters would be most desirable. In other areas where the underground water near the surface is too salty to be used, economical canal linings would also be valuable. This may be particularly true in parts of Former Sind. A vigorous research and development program on canal linings should be undertaken. Conventional lining methods are expensive, and in many cases impractical. Consequently, the program should be directed to developing novel sealing materials and methods. Examination of available and anticipated techniques indicates that chemical linings, such as emulsified asphalt, may offer hope. In addition, other novel methods such as sealing by dispersed air or biological methods should receive some attention. Recharge of Aquifer Sites for the economical development of large surface storage reservoirs are few in West Pakistan. For this and other reasons, it will always be extremely difficult to provide surface storage for the monsoon flood waters. 373



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Chapter 3 Schedule of activities Our plan calls tur one million-acre area to follow another on an average of one per year over a twenty-five year period. Not only must these areas and operations be carefully scheduled, but the program in each area is so extensive that it must be accomplished over a period of time. A grouping of functions by time for the first few years is suggested below. This assumes starting in areas where tubewells have not been drilled. Suitable adjustments would be required where large numbers of tube wells already exist. First Year Most of the staff, except for the field assistants, should be recruited and installed in temporary headquarters. The Project Director and his key assistants should work closely with WAPDA, the 15IDC, and other agencies in preparing plans for the tubewell installations, fertilizer availability, the experiment station, and other major construction with which they will have to, work. No construction should be undertaken without the approval of the Project Director. The statistical reporting organization should be organized and enter the field, partly for training purposes and partly to obtain benchmark data and other information use ful in planning the operations of the development region. A public informa tion effort should be initiated to gain the cooperation of community leaders and local officials. Preliminary plans for research should be developed. Insect and pest surveys should be begun. Preliminary arrangements should be made with the agricultural banks. By the end of the year, the plans and specifications of the major installations should be ready. Second Year Early in the year, contracts should be! let for all major installations. By the end of the year, the permanent headquarters should be ready for occupancy. The major effort during the year should be the organization of the agricultural extension branch of the administration and the initiation of work on demonstration plots. Agricultural experiment work should be begun in temporary locations, especially testing of seeds and fertilizer response. Third Year In the course of this year the first tubewells should come into operation. The field agents help to introduce innovations on 20 to 25 percent of the farms, and the required agricultural development loans are made. The 157



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Chapter 7 less as one proceeds from the Former Punjab to the Former Sind, Assuming


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Table A. 5.2--Continued Rabi Kharif Canal and Crop Year Canal Rain Total Canal Rain Total Mailsi 1955-56 1.5 1.5 31.6 6.1 37.7 1956-57 12.2 .8 13.0 32.3 17.0* 49.4 1957-58 4.5 .7 5.2 Haveli 1955-56 11.8 2.5 14.3 22.1 5.9 28.0 1956-57 16.0 2.6 18.6 25.3 3.0 28.3 1957-58 13.4 2.7 16.1 Rangpur 1955-56 -3.7 3.7 45.9 8.6 54.5 1956-57 18.7 4.6 23.3 41.5 4.8 46.3 1957-58 18.6 2.7 21.3 *Doubtful validity. 435



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Summary Wells and appurte 'nances including. electrification $41.0 (transmission lines, substations, etc.) Drainage system (returnnfows and floods) 5.0 Salt export system (wells for pumping salt water plus conveyance channels) 6.6 Transporting pumped water or its equivalent (canal enlargement plus channels for pumping into canals) 9.1 New nitrogen fertilizer plants and facilities for distribution 12.0 Facilities for pest control and seed treatment 2.0 Facilities and "People in the Pine-line" for education, research, extension, management 5.0 Additional capital will be required after a few years for transportation facilities for the increased crops, processing mills, phosphate fertilizer production, etc. In Former Sind, capital costs for water development and drainage would probably be 25 to 40 percent higher, making the total capital cost between $100 and $110 (Rs 435 to Rs 520) per acre. A grid of conveyance channels to carry off saline pumped waters must be constructed, and enlargement of canal capacity must be undertaken to bring in additional water. Total capital costs for 16.4 million acres in the Former Punjab and Former Bahawalpur and for 9 to 10 million acres in Former Sind would be $2.3 billion (Rs 11 billion). If this expenditure were spread over the next 25 to 30 years, the average annual investment would be $80 to $90 million (Rs 380 to Rs 430 million). During the Second Five-Year Plan (1960-1965), the average annual allocation to the agricultural and water and power sectors for West Pakistan was projected as Rs 735 million ($155 million). Thus the required expenditures for our plan constitute a major fraction of the total allocations to these sectors. However, they do not appear excessive in terms of the entire Five-Year Plan. For 25 million net cultivated acres, fertilizer containing 625,000 tons of nitrogen will be needed each year. With increasing efficiency of fertilizer production and distribution, the annual cost to the farmers should be around $125 million (Rs 600 million) or ten cents (Rs 0.475) per 11



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Chapter 7 Synthetic streamfiows and rainfall data are generated using a Markov process with'an additive random component.(20) By suppressing the random component, deterministic simulations runs can be made. Hydrologic data are produced for each time increment of the simulation, and thus this phase of the computation is repeated seasonally as the solution proceeds. (iii) Balance At the start of each season's computations, the program evaluates the flow of groundwater from adjacent cells using Darcy's Law. In general four flow vectors from adjacent cells are required to compute the drawdown in any cell during each season. If the transmissibility is written as T (permeability times the effective depth of the aquifer), it can be shown from theoretical considerations that the dimensionless parameter C= At. T should not exceed 0.15 in order that the numerical solution by the finite difference method of the computer be a valid solution for the continuous pumping process of the prototype. That is, for a given value of Ax which is set by the project area, &t should be selected so that the upper bound on C is maintained. It was found that 40 iterations (loopings) per season (i. e., At =1/ 12 0 of a year) produced stable numerical solutions. (iv) Feedback relationships Following the computation of new ground water levels in all the cells, the feedback relations are evaluated for each cell in -turn. If a cell has a well, the effluent is withdrawn and circulated in accordance with the prescribed operating parameters. No connection to adjacent cells is as sumed in this phase of the computation since the feedback relations are defined for a given area with a horizontal water table. Phases (iii) and (iv) are executed during each season of the simulation. (v Write -out Two arrays are provided as output for each season's run. Following the execution of the balance phase, the ground water elevation in each (20)Maass, A., et al, Design of Water Resource Systems. Chapter 12, Harvard University Press (1962). 311



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Chapter 7 be used to rank the two designs on the basis of the present value of net benefits. 1T_ -t f-lt N = i (bcmn) (1+r 0 2 Cc (Il+r)t t=0 t=0 where N = the present value of net benefit in rupees, n = the number of million-acre projects, i =an index: i= t, forO0 t n, r =discount rate, T = economic time horizon, years, .b = gross benefits from crops per million net cultivated acres per year minus the annual costs of fertilizer, plant protection, improved seed and other costs not associated with water supply, million of rupees. cm =operating and maintenance costs of the tubewell system per million net cultivated acres, millions of rupees per year, and% cc =capital costs per million net cultivated acres, millions of rupees, Assume, for example, that T =30 years, r =0.04 (4 percent), b = 242 x 106 rupees per year, and set the other parameters in accordance with values indicated on Table 7.4, Desi i IDesign 2 Parameter DeI1 (with recharge (with mining) recovery) n 16 12 cc 292 x 106 168 x 106 cm 2 3.2 x 106 13.2 x 106 The value of N in the economic efficiency ranking function is 35.8x 109 rupees for the design with mining, and 33.1 x 109 rupees for the design in which recharge -water only is pumped. The difference in economic efficiency in favor of mining would be larger if the costs of transition to the second level of development had been taken into account. In making this computation we do not imply that economic efficiency is an appropriate criterion for justification of our plan for West Pakistan, or even that the particular formulation used is the best method for measuring economic efficiency. The results do, however, show that from the restricted viewpoint of the economics of water management, mining is justifiable. 324



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Chapter 7 the decision variables y and z. Because the objective function is of a non-linear form, this is a problem in non-linear programming.(7) For given values of the parameters L, F and M, the object of this mathematical analysis is to choose that set of non-negative values for the decision variables y, z and w, subject to the six constraints described previously, that will maximize the net benefit function or objective function. (e) Results of Mathematical Analysis Optimum solutions have been obtained for values of L = 15, 10, 5; F = 10, 5, 1; M = 5, 2; A =1200, 700 mg/liter; R= 2.4 maf/yr; CMAX = 2000, 1500 mg/liter; B = 0.10;,&= 3.5 ft/yr. By selecting all possible combinations of the values of the parameters listed above, 72 optimal solutions were obtained. The values of the decision variables, y, z and w, that maximize the net benefit function for the individual runs fall into one of two categories, namely; (1) y = 0, z = 1.71, w = 0 and (2) y 0.81, z = 2.61, w 0 (maf/yr) In order that the relationship between the benefit and cost parameters, L, F and M and the optimal values of the decision variables y, z and w may be more clearly depicted, Figure 7.6 has been prepared.(8) For a given value of M = 5, Figure 7.6 exhibits three regions in which a design might fall depending on the relative values of L and F. For example, Region I indicates that the decision is optimal when the values of the decision variables are: y z0, z = 1.71 and w = 0 (maf/yr). The following table displays optimum values of the decision variables along with the salinity of the applied irrigation water in the saline zone for the three regions shown on Figure 7.6. Value of decision variables Salinity of applied Region at maximum net benefits irrigation water in maf/yr the saline area-mg/1 y z w C I 0 1.71 0 1180 II 0.81 2.61 0 1384 III 5.0 7.0 4.87 2000* *Values given here for region III are forA= 3.5 ft/yr, CMAX = 2000 mg/liter, and A = 1200 mg/liter. (7)The mathematical details of the method used are discussed in the Appendix Report "Indus Basin Studies," Harvard Water Resources Group. (8)The development of Figure 7.6 is described in detail in the Appendix Report. 279



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Table 7.3 Summary of Tubewell Operations in Project No.1 During the Year 1961-1962 Project Area First Year of Gross Area, No. of Pumpage, Reduction Unit Ratio of Operation acres Tubewells acre-feet in Water Pumpage, 6WT Table, ft. ft of H20 Unit Pumpage Group One Chuharkana 1954 10,769 24 20,000 0.25 1.88 0.13 Jaranwala 1958 90,873 145 116,000 0.60 1.28 0.47 Pindi Bhattian 1959 8,305 21 19,700 2.75 2.37 1.16 Chichoki Mallian 1960 7,122 11 9,390 0.80 1.32 0.61 Totals 117,069 201 165,290 0.73 1.41 0.52 Grouo Two 1961 Beranwala 78,376 126 188,603 4.50 2.41 1.87 Harse-Sheikh 1961 26,043 44 57,674 4.44 2.22 2.00 Hafizabad 1961 171,169 317 392,678 5.06 2.29 2.21 Khanqah Dogran 1961 121,810 203 328,072 2.48 2.69 0.92 Sangla Hill 1961 138,971 233 364,075 2.66 2.62 1.01 Shadman 1961 79,252 91 195,361 3.56 2.47 1.44 615,621 1.014 1,526 463 3.72 2.48 1.50 Grka Three Shahkot 1962 247,183 319 234,671 1.39 0.95 1.46 Zafarwal 1962 234,602 193 35,874 0.15 No water table measurements available. (



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Chapter 7 did not adequately provide for deposition, incrustation, and corrosion occurring in and around the tubewell screens. Group Two Tubewells. Tubewells installed in these six units during 1961 represent the bulk of the new tubewell construction. Modern reverserotary equipment was employed for drilling; tubewells were fitted with slotted steel casings and gravel-packed. During 1961-1962 these 1014 wells pumped an average of 2.48 feet of water over the gross area. This pumpage reduced the water table by an average of 3.72 feet. Thus, the water table declined 1.50 feet for each foot of water pumped over the area. This rate is nearly three times that of the Group One tubewells, indicating a far more effective operation. The maximum water table reduction of about 2.0 feet for each foot of water pumped indicates a water table recharge of about 0.5 foot for the year, assuming a specific yield of 25 percent. This is somewhat lower than the estimate of recharge used in our water budget (0.67 feet per year). The difference may be attributed to the fact that the water table is high, with high non-beneficial evapotranspiration rates, and that canal seepage is still limited by low water table gradients. Part of the difference may be attributed to less-than-average rainfall during the year. Group Three Tubewells. The Shahkot and Zafarwal Units are the latest and largest installations of tubewells. By September 1962, 83 percent of the wells in Shahkot Unit had been put into operation, while only 50 percent of those in Zafarwal Unit were commissioned. The limited period of operation precludes any evaluation of the effectiveness of tubewells in these units; however, the data show that even initial pumping in Shahkot Unit was achieving definite benefits. Efficiency of Tubewell Operation. The overall efficiency of tubewells in Group One and Group Two for the year was 68 percent. This indicates that theoretically a 50 percent greater effectiveness of the tubewells could have been achieved by improved operation of existing tubewells. The following table summarizes the down time during Kharif and Rabi. 318



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Chapter 1 scantiest harvest. In others, only a fraction of the people remain, and the deserted mud houses of those who were forced to leave have disappeared. The average farmer now wrings a bare living for himself and his family from less than seven acres, broken into scattered plots. At the same time that new lands are being brought under the plow, older lands are deterio rating. In a country of farmers, food must be imported to provide the most meager diet; the gap between food production and the number of mouths to be fed is widening. In order to understand what has happened and what may be done, we need to examine in detail the resources of land and water in the Indus Plain, the human resources of the country, and the state of agriculture. The Land On a map, the Indus Plain of West Pakistan has a shape roughly like the silhouette of an hour glass. It is rimmed abruptly on the west by the Kirthar and Sulaiman Mountains,. on the northwest by the Salt Range, and on the north by the foothills of the Himalayas. To the northeast and east, the plain extends into Kashmir and India. On the southeast, the sand dunes of the Thar Desert press against the plain and constrict its width. Its southernmost segment is the delta of the Indus, which fades into the giant salt pan called the Rann of Cutch and gradually becomes submerged beneath the Arabian Sea. The area of the plain is about 80,000 square miles, half the size of the State of California. From the Himalayan piedmont to the Arabian Sea,, its length is more than seven hundred miles; its width varies from two hundred miles in the former state of Punjab to about fifty miles in the narrow neck between the Thar Desert and the Sulaiman Mountains. To a traveler, the plain appears as level as the sea; actually it has a very gentle slope of about a foot per mile from the base of the Himalayan foothills to the ocean. Lahore, seven hundred miles inland, is seven hundred feet above sea level. Geologically, the Indus Plain is part of a broad downwarp that extends westward from the Bay of Bengal under the flood plain of the Ganges and thence across the subcontinent to the Arabian Sea. In its western half, this downwarp has been leveled and filled, to depths of many thousand feet, with the sands and silts deposited by the Indus and its tributaries. 21



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Chapter 7 and used to obtain more reliable quantitative data on the areal. distribution of usable ground water. Canal Leakage and Control Most estimates of canal leakage have been based on a gross water balance and on areal changes in water table elevations. Canal leakage represents the major source of ground water recharge, therefore it would be useful to have data on leakage rates (specific leakance) of representative canal reaches. This may be accomplished by careful metering of the canal flow at two selected points as well as all diversions from the canal between these two points. Measurements should be made in canals of different ages, sizes, and .operating and maintenance procedures. Canals passing through all important soil types should be investigated. The resulting data would be valuable in determining the economic feasibility of sealing selected reaches of canals, for example, near drainage wells, and would provide a basis for comparison of the efficacy of different types of sealants. Water Quality Effects on Soil Properties Water containing a high concentration of sodium ions relative to the concentration of calcium and magnesium ions when used for irrigation, can adversely affect the structure of the soil. This is particularly true for soils containing montmorillonitic clays. The sodium ion causes swelling of clay particles and reduces infiltration rates, permeability, and soil aeration. When surface water containing appreciable amounts of carbonate and bicarbonate ions are used in irrigation, dissolved calcium is precipitated in the soil and the exchangeable -sodium -ion -percentage of the pore water is increased. When this happens it may be necessary to mix ground water with fresh surface water before it can safely be re -used in irrigation. The extent to which water quality poses problems on various soils can be studied by applying selected waters to different soils in each project area. Small ponding tests, with measurement of infiltration rates, will show the extent of the reaction under field conditions. The results will indicate quantitatively the need for soil amendments or dilution of ground water with canal water. The sodium hazard of ground waters in the Former Punjab and Former Sind merits careful investigation with emphasis on how canal water, ground water and soils can be managed so as to prevent excessive accumulation of exchangeable sodium. 330



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Table 3. 2 AREA OWNED INCLUDING UNCULTIVATED AREA BY SIZE OF HOLDINGS IN THE FORMER PUJNJAB Size of holdings Acres No. of owners (Thousand) (%o of total) (Thousand) (76 of total) Less than 10 acres ** 7,092 31.8 1,809 78.7 10 to 99 acres ** 10,428 46.7 476 20.7 100 to 499 acres .. 2,502 11.2 12 0.5 500 acres and above. .2,295 10.3 1 0.1 Total .. 22,317 100.0 2,298 100.0 163



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Chapter 6 California. Table 6.3 indicates the degree of tolerance of some of these crops to soil salinity. Several varieties of melons and many vegetables show excellent or good adaptability to climate and soils and are tolerant, or moderately tolerant of high soil salt concentrations. The vegetables include carrots, lettuce,, onions, peppers, summer and winter squash, asparagus, beets, broccoli, cabbage, cucumbers, peas, spinach, and tomatoes. Among fruit crops, dates, grapes, pomegranates, figs and olives are excellently or fairly well adaptable to the climatic conditions, and tolerant or moderately tolerant of soil salts. Grapefruits, oranges, lemons, limes, apricots, peaches and plums are excellently to fairly adaptable to climate, but are Sensitive to soil salts. Other fruits and nuts found to be adaptable to the >climate include mulberries, loquats, pecans, persimmons, strawberries, and tangerines. Winter and spring vegetables and fruits for urban..xnarkets and for export are major products from the former desert valleys in California. They could form the basis of highly promising and potentially rich agricultural development in Former Sind. Forest Products. There are good prospects of profitable returns from increased forest production and from better forest land management in West Pakistan. Per capita consuption of wood is among the lowest in the world (0,7 cu ft vs. 72.3 cu ft in the U.S.), even though there is a strong demand for wood as a building material and as a fuel. In addition, forests are important: (a) as a factor in helping to reduce soil erosion on slopes, thus preserving soils and reducing silt loads in rivers, and (b) as windbreaks for other agricultural crops. In many areas, forestry enterpris.es have the additional advantage that they take few resources from other types of agricultural production. For example, a number of very salt-tolerant trees and shrubs sould be grown on saline lands unfit for other uses. Dairy Products: The possibility of starting dairy belts in rural areas at some distance from other cities should be investigated. There is an increasing demand for milk at the present time (milk, which is often diluted, sells for about Rs 0.3 per lb.), although the lack of refrigeration and transportation 247



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80 III Mr5 7 M=5 L" x_l 60 u:i 50 40 L-i 30 L." REGION SYMBOL VALUE OF DECISION VARIABLE mof/yr. y z Iw :yzw 2I 0 1.71 0 cc, 11 0.81 2.61 0 "TI 5.0 7.0 4.87 Values presented here for region I are 10for A= 3.5 ft/yr., C MAX= 2000 mg/Iiter, A= 1200 mg/liter 10 20 30 40 50 ANNUAL RELATIVE COST OF EXPORTING SALINE WATER, F FIG. 7.6 RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE BENEFIT AND COST PARAMETERS L, F & M AND THE OPTIMUM CHOICE OF VALUES FOR THE DECISION VARIABLES, y, z 8 w. 342



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Table 5.2 Apparent Depths of Irrigation Plus Effective Rainfall, Lower Chenab Canal (acre-inches per acre) rSeason .. Rabi. Kharif EVT 1955-56 56-57 57-58 1956-57 57-58 Wheat 12 14 14 14 Barley 12 14 14 14 Gram 17 22 22 22 Oilseeds 11 13 13 13 Ri ce 42 42 42 Sugar cane 48 41 53 Jowar 16 13 24 Bajra 17 13 24 Maize 19 16 23 Cotton (American) 32 25 38 Notes and Sources: Apparent Depths computed as explained in text EVT (evapotranspiration potential) from Weather Bureau, U. S. Department of Commerce (see Appendix A.1). 214



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Chapter 4 ORGANIZATION AND MANAGEMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT IN PROJECT AREAS The key challenge to development of project areas will lie in organization and management. In Salinity Control and Reclamation Project No. 1 (SCARP 1) in Rechna Doab, for example, tubewells and electrification are completed. Groundwater levels are being lowered. Additional water supply for irrigation is available. Enough is known about waterlogging, salinity and sodium-damaged soils to move up on these problems. The right course toward intensive agricultural production can be identified and charted. But dynamic development awaits the mobilization and motivation of governmental personnel and village cultivators to utilize the project facilities and to apply modern agricultural science. Widespread interest focuses on Rechna Doab because it is recognized that the quality of performance here will determine the pace of progress in the entire Indus Plain. The lessons of experience in this first project area are needed to guide the design and operation of subsequent projects. The training contribution of the first project is essential for managerial and technical staffing of project number two. Without the research and experimental insight into technical method and cultivator participation that can be gained in Rechna Doab, persuasive support for subsequent undertakings will be lacking. In responding to the immediate organizational challenge, the Government will be providing the institutional foundation for ultimate province-wide development of people, land and water. It will be symbolizing the breadth and depth of Government interest. It will be substantially predetermining the feasibility of a succession of similar efforts. General Considerations In the course of our inquiry into the technology of waterlogging and salinity control and agricultural development we soon found it necessary to be alert to the administrative implications of possible programs. Accordingly, an essential aspect of our investigation has been an exploration of the realities of implementation and the public administration environment of the undertaking. i 167



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Chapter 1 in elevation between the Indus River and the affected areas. Water tables were probably quite high, even before irrigation began, and, in most places, the underground water has a high salt content. Although a lowering of the water table can probably be induced by pumping from tube wells over a sufficiently large area, this would not, in general, have the advantage, which is so readily attainable over most of the Punjab, of increasing the irrigation water supply. In most areas, expensive conveyance channels will have to be constructed to enable disposal of the pumped water in the Indus River. Total areas of waterlogged and severely saline land By adding the figures given in the above pages, we arrive at a total of about 6.5 million acres of actually or potentially culturable lands in the Indus Plain that are seriously affected by waterlogging and/or high soil salinity. This is a fourtlA of the average gross sown areas during the past decade. There is little question that in several million additional acres the soil salt contents are too high to allow optimum crop production. On the other hand, a fraction of the saline and waterlogged area has never been cultivated, and a smaller fraction is not cultivated at present. Over three million acres,2,r half of the affected land., is in Former Sind, and its total area is equivalent to half the total gross area sown in this region. But the area of cultivated land that is seriously affected cannot be more than two million acres, or a third of the gross sown area. In Former Bahawalpur, the area of waterlogged and salinity damaged land is about 17 percent of the gross sown area, roughly the same as in the Former Punjab. In general, we may conclude that the area of damaged canalirrigated and cultivated land is roughly 5 million acres, or about 18 percent of the gross sown area in the Indus Plain, and 22 percent of the canal-irrigated sown area. Effects on Agricultural Production It is difficult to obtain a quantitative measure of the effects that waterlogging and salinity have had to date on agricultural production. Tables 1.8 and 1.9 give average data over the decade from 1949 to 1959 on areas sown to different crops, yields,.and crop values in the nine Punjab Districts with major canal irrigation. The percentage of waterlogged and saline land is low, averaging less than 10 percent of the cultivated area, in fives of these Districts: Lyallpur, Shahpur, Lahore, Montgomery, and Multan. Their 62



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Chapter 1 The British worked a transformation on the land. In both the Punjab and the Sind, they built low dams, which they called barrages, across the rivers. Behind these barrages, they diverted the waters into great new canals. These canals, with their branches and distributaries, have a total length of tens of thousands of miles. Some of the biggest of them carry nearly as much water as the Colorado River. They were carefully designed as to width, depth, and downstream slope, in such a way that the silty water moves just fast enough so that it neither erodes the beds of the canals nor chokes them by depositing sediment. The ancient inundation canals were filled only when the rivers were in flood., and they carried water only a relatively short distance from the river banks. Mostof the new British canals could carry water throughout the year, because the barrages at the diversion points backed up the river waters to the level of the canal heads. They stretched in a complex many-branched network entirely across the broad plains between the rivers.,. Thus, intensive agriculture was made possible over millions of acres. Before the construction of the canals, farming had been concentrated on narrow ribbons of land along the river banks; now, green fields of grain and other crops gradually covered the entire country. The Punjab was soon called the bread-basket of India. Farmers and their families immigrated into the newly-watered lands by the hundreds of thousands. In the Punjab, the British supplied farms to each cultivator in the "canal colonies," and they established a grid of villages, two to three miles apart, across the land. In the Sind, the pattern of settlement was somewhat different. Large landowners held most of the country, and the farmers were sharecropping tenantson small parcels. Barrages and canals were first built in the northeastern Punjab during the latter part of the nineteenth century. Construction is still continuing, especially in the former state of Sind. Hundreds of thousands of acres of new lands are being brought under cultivation every year. At present, the canal-irrigated area planted each year totals twenty-three million acres, by far the largest single irrigated region on earth, and more than two thirds of all the planted land in West Pakistan. But something has gone wrong. Poverty and hunger, not well-fed prosperity, are today the common lot of the people of West Pakistan, and are nowhere more desperately evident than in the farming villages of the .countryside. Some of these villages have disappeared completely, because the fields on which tbef:r livelffiood depended no longer yield even-the 20



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Figure 6.1 Cross Section of "Excavated Pond Sodium-damaged soil Water table Figure 6.2 Cross Section of "Surface Pond" 256



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Chapter 6 The primary benefit of excavated ponds would be in the production of fish; however, such ponds could substitute in part for drainage works, and could also provide water storage and other benefits. Pond fish are reported to sell in the agricultural districts at Rs 45 to Rs 60 per maund, Prices are, of course, higher in the cities and lower in areas of high production far from markets (Manchar Lake, for example). Rs 0.5 per pound appears to be a fair estimate of the rural price. Assuming an annual yield of 300 lbs per acre, the income from ponds would be of the order of Rs 150 per acre per year. Capitalized at six percent this return would justify an investment of about Rs 2500 per acre or only about half of Sthe cost. No maintenance cost is included for it is assumed that any annual costs will be compensated by improved yield. While excavated ponds could contribute a highly important component to diets the current returns from fish would not cover the estimated costs of construction. There are other benefits, however, and the complete benefit-cost ratio would depend on values assigned to ponds as: a) a substitute for tubewells in early stages b) an impondment for flood waters, and c) a source of aquifer recharge. Ponds may have especially beneficial effects prior to the installation of tubewells. Evaporation from ponds in low-lying areas would contribute significantly to withdrawal of water from the aquifer. Underground drainage into these ponds could be considerable in areas of permeable soils and high Water tables. Added irrigation water or discharge (depending upon water quality and suitability) could be obtained by the use of simple lift pumps. Excavated ponds also would add to the flexibility of management of surface drains. Such drainage ponds would increase in salinity but probably could continue to provide a good harvest of fishdepending upon the availability of suitable fish species and aquatic plants. At least one species of estuarine fish from Pakistan appears to do very well in saline ponds. This results in part from the depression of populations of natural predators and competitors. In the Salton Sea of Southern California, marine species have been introduced with spectacular success. Some of the high productivity of the 243



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Chapter 5 Pakistan (see Tables 2.5 and 5.12). Applied to the illustrative million acre tract, assuming the cost of these measures as Rs. 10 per acre, the Planning Commission figures show that it would be economical to undertake plant protection measures and to use presently available improved seeds on the land under, cotton, sugarcane, maize, rice, wheat and oilseeds. As applied to the cropping pattern of Table 5.11, 867,000 acres would be subjected to these improved practices and an increase in value of output of Rs. 4.4 crore would result. The cost, at Rs. 10 an acre, would be about Rs. 0.8 crore, leaving a net gain of Rs. 3.6 crore from improved seed varieties and extended plant protection. Our estimates of yield increases are brought together in Table 5.12. It will be seen that the combination of more water, nitrogen fertilizer, improved seed varieties, and plant protection promises substantial gains in crop output, particularly when applied to fields in wheat, rice, sugarcane, maize, cotton, and fodder. We have not made any estimates of the gains to be secured from use of phosphate fertilizers or by other improvements in tillage--better plowing, more extensive use of row cultivation, more energetic weed control, and so on--but we believe that they also are considerable. Because of the principle of interaction to which we have adverted so often before, these estimates, obtained by simple summation, are surely on the low side. The gains from fertilizer and improved seed on the same field greatly exceed the sum of the gains from the two measures taken independently. Table 5.12 does not incorporate the increases in farm income'that will result from an expansion of the gross area cropped. The program will contribute to this expansion in a number of ways as we have seen. Beside allowing an increase in the intensity of cultivation, the use of tubewell water will arrest the deterioration and abandonment of land and will permit the restoration to agriculture of some land now out of use. Recapitulation for an Illustrative Project Area All in all we find that the proposed program of tubewell development and agricultural modernization holds forth the promise of an increase of about Rs. 23.7 crore or nearly 160 percent in the gross annual value produced in our illustrative million-acre project-.area. The sources of this increase are displayed in Table 5. 10 which brings together the estimates discussed above. The derivation of this table is explained in its footnotes and in Tables 5.11 and 5.12, which support it. 199



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SUMMARY The flat and fertile Indus Plain of West Pakistan, and the great rivers that water it, are one of the major natural resources of the earth. They are a major physical asset of the world's fifth largest country, Pakistan, with its rapidly rowing population of 100 million people. Some 30 million persons dwell on the Plain, and 23 million make their living directly or indirectly from farming it. They produce 75 percent of the food and fibers grown in West Pakistan. The average annual inflow of the Indus and its tributaries is twice the flow of the Nile, and more than ten times that of the Colorado River. In Europe, only the Danube compares in size, and in the United States, only the Mississippi and the Columbia are larger. Half the water carried onto the Plain by the rivers is diverted into a highly -developed system of irrigation canals, and is used to irrigate some 23 million acres--by far the largest single irrigated region on earth, and two-thirds of all the planted land in West Pakistan. The total area of easily culturable land in the Plain is more than 30 million acres. Underneath the northern part of the Plain lies a huge lake of fresh water, equal in volume to ten times the annual flow of the rivers. Else where, there are large reservoirs of natural gas. If properly developed, the underground water could be used as an invaluable supplement to the canal waters, and the known reserves of natural gas could be employed for many decades* as fuel for generation of the electric power needed to pump the underground water, and as a raw material for production of nitrogen fertilizers. In spite of the great potentialities of the Plain, the fact is that poverty and hunger, not well-fed prosperity, are today the common lot of the people of West Pakistan. They are nowhere more desperately evident that in the farming villages of the countryside. In a country of farmers, food must be imported to provide the most meager diet; the gap between food production and the number of mouths to be fed is widening at an increasing rate. With an average caloric content in the human diet of less than 2,000 calories per person Per day, and an animal protein intake of less than 8 grams, agricultural production in West Pakistan would need to be increased 15 percent to feed the additional livestock required to meet the deficit of animal protein, and another 20 percent to make up the deficit in food grains and other energy -containing foods. The population is growing at a rate of 2.5 to 3 percent per year, while food production is 1



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Chapter 7 water supply is economically justifiable in comparison with other types of Investment such as tubewell systems which have a smaller degree of "lumpiness" than dams. Lining of Canals with Sealants A final analysis carried out with the digital computer related to the use of sealants to reduce leakage from canals. The lining of canals and other components of the distribution system with asphaltic emulsion sealants and similar compounds to retard leakage was found to be economically justifiable only if the cost per application is less than about 2k~ per square foot of canal bottom. A benefit -cost analysis was carried through for each of eight different cropping Patterns. The crops, yields, and prices were similar to those used in Chapter 5. Costs of tubewells alone to provide the seasonal irrigation water requireXments for each pattern were compared with costs of tubewells plus sealants to provide the same requirements. In the latter case, the tubewells were smaller and less expensive because the sealants reduced leakage and therefore less pumpage was required to meet a given irrigation water requirement. The assumption was made that all canal and watercourse bottoms would be treated with sealants and that this would reduce leakage by fifty percent. It was further assumed that sealants would have to be injected once every five years. In all of the cropping patterns studied, however, the saving gained by smaller well installations was more than offset by the added cost of lining, so that the designs with tubewells alone were invariably less expensive when lining costs were 4~ per square foot. The effect of the lining was to reduce average pumping rates during the year. However, maximum pumping rates were reduced relatively less. Tubewell costs in the cases studied were more nearly proportional to the maximum pumping rate than to the average pumping rate. Designs using both tubewells and sealants were found to be very much superior to designs without tubewells that relied entirely on lining to provide additional irrigation water. Although additional irrigation water can be ob tamned by lining alone, it is available only during periods of high river flow. With wells, water is available throughout the year as needed. It may be had in dry seasons and wet seasons, in dry years as well as wet years with the aquifer serving as a gigantic storage reservoir. Thus while it is possible to reduce the cost of providing additional water by using lining alone, the benefit from the crops was impaired because of the non-optimal distribution of water during the year. Much of the loss in benefit was due to the reduction in production of winter wheat. Hydrological Research Our plan for the development of the water resources of West Pakistan requires a large capital outlay for water management works. To insure 327



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Jacob, K. D., Notes on fertilizer facilities in Asia: Beltsville, Md., Fertilizer Investigations Research Branch, Soil and Water Conservation Research Division, Agricultural Research Service, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, 11 e, (Special Report no. 86) 1959. Jones, J. N., Jr., Sparrow, G. N., and Miles, J. D., Principles of tobacco irrigation: Washington, U.S. Govt. Print. Off., 16 p., 1960 (U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Agriculture Information Bulletin no. 228). Kanwar, J. S., Quality of irrigation water as an index of its suitability for irrigation purposes: Potash Review, September 1961. Karpov, A. V., Indus Valley, West Pakistants life line: Water Resources Engg. Conf., Amer. Soc. Civil Enggs., Milwaukee, Wisconsin, May, 1963. Karpov, A. V., and Nebolsine, Ross, Indus Valley, key to West Pakistan's future, a series of six articles prepared for publication in "INDUS" Journal of the West Pakistan Water and Power Authority, Lahore, West Pakistan: New York, I v., 1960-61. Contents--l. Past and present; 2. Rivers and deserts; 3. Submerged mountain ranges; 4. Geophysical prospecting methods; 5. Engineering aspects; 6. Today and tomorrow. Kazmi, Ali H., Laboratory tests on test drilling samples from Rechna Doab, West Pakistan, and their application towater resources evaluation studies: International Assn. of Scientific Hydrology, Athens, Publication no. 57, p. 493-508, 1961. Kelley, W. P., Use of saline irrigation water: Soil Science, v. 95, n. 6, p. 385, 391, June, 1963. Kemper, W. D., Movement of water as effected by free energy and pressure gradients; I. Application of classic equations for viscous and diffusive movements to the liquid phase in finely porous media: Soil Science Society of America, Proceedings, 25 (4), p. 255-265, July-August, 1961. -----Structural implications of moisture retention by clay-size soil materials: Soil Science Society of America, Proceedings, 22 (1), p. 5-8, January-February, 1958. Kemper, W. D., and Amemiya, M., Alfalfa growth as affected by aeration and soil moisture stress under flood irrigation: Soil Science Society of America, Proceedings, 21 (6), p. 657-660, NovemberDecember, 1957. Khan, A. H., and others, Observations on the mortality of shisham (Dalbergia sissoo) and other trees in Khanewal Plantation: Pakistan Jour. of Forestry, 6 (2), p. 109-126, April, 1956; (3), p. 203-220, July, 1956; (4), p. 289-301, October, 1956. 390



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Chapter I Over vast areas, the water rose steadily, season after season, at a rate of 1 to 2 feet a year, until it came within 10 to 15 feet of the land surface. After this level had been reached, the water table continued to move upward, though more slowly. When one flies over the Former Punjab today, soggily wet land and even standing water can be seen near some canal margins, in old meander scars, drainage channels, and other low-lying areas. Where the water table has reached the root zone in the farmer's fields, it tends to drown out the crops by preventing needed aeration of the roots. More serious is the capillary rise and evaporation of the underground water that occurs whenever the water table is within ten feet of the surface. The salts left behind by evaporation are deposited on the fields and in the soil; withinin a few years, the soil salt content builds up to a level that seriously inhibits, and may completely prevent, plant growth. For example, in an area where the underground water has a salinity of 1,000 parts per million, evaporation at a rate of 2 feet per year (a typical value when the water table is only a few feet deep) will raise the salt content of the top 3 feet of soil to about 1 percent in 20 years. This is too high for even the hardiest crops. Ground water evaporation is only one of the causes of high salinity in the soils of the Former Punjab. The southern part of this region was initially a desert, and, as in all deserts, the alluvial deposits laid down by intermittent floods were accompanied by salt residues. The Punjab soils have undergone only moderate weathering, and at least in the southern area there may have been little leaching of their original salt contents. ,/ Irrigation practices have also contributed to salt accumulation. Water from the canals is spread so thinly over the land that the average quantity on the fields is less than the potential evapotranspiration during the growing season. Percolation through the silt soils is slow; consequently, none of the irrigation water washes down very far beneath the root zone before it has evaporated, and the residue of salt left by evaporation remains in the upper soil layers. Because of the remarkably low salt concentration of the canal waters, this practice does little noticeable harm over a short period, but over decades it must inevitably lead to damaging salt accumulations unless occasional floods or heavy rains wash the salt downward out of the soil. 56



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Chapter 1 Mention has already been made of the strong export market for the high-quality rice that now accounts for about 15 percent of West Pakistan's rice crop. This market shows no signs of saturation. Another 15 percent of the rice crop goes to East Pakistan, and thereby contributes to making land available for production of jute, Pakistan's principal export. An increase in West Pakistan rice production could lead to expansion of these inter-Wing rice shipments and thus indirectly to a rise in export earnings through increased jute production. Sugar production has risen rapidly in West Pakistan during the last 15 years. About one percent of the sugar crop is now exported to East Pakistan, but if sugar consumption per capita in the East Wing approached that of West Pakistan, a 60 percent increase in sugar production could be easily absorbed today. .About a third of the crop of rape and mustard seeds is taken by the East Pakistanis, who enjoy the strong taste of the oils pressed from these seeds. Half the West Pakistan tobacco crop also goes to East Pakistan. With continued population growth, hopefully accompanied by economic growth, the markets for these commodities should become much larger. Promising possibilities for speciality fruits and vegetables are discussed in Chapter 6. Comparison of Crop Yields with Those of Other Countries The low values of output per capita in West Pakistan, whether measured in terms of value or of nutritional content, reflect the fact that agricultural yields in the Indian Subcontinent are among the lowest of all countries where agriculture is practiced on a large scale. A comparison of the yields of major crops for countries and regions in different stages of agricultural development and practicing different intensities of land use is given in Tables 1.17 and 1.18. In general, the average productivity of land in Pakistan is somewhat higher than in India. But in countries such as Egypt, Japan, and Western Europe, where agriculture is highly developed and land must be used intensively, yields per acre of food grains and cotton are from two to threeand-a-half times larger than those in Pakistan. Even in the United States, where land is abundant and labor is short, average yields for the country as a whole are,in almost all cases, two to four times the Pakistani yields. In the southwestern United States, which is comparable in climate and nature of water supply to West Pakistan, the yield. of cotton is more than five times the yield in the Former Punjab or Former Sind. The yield of sugar in the Hawaiian Islands is seven-and-a-half times the West Pakistan yield. 54



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Chapter 2 The soil solution in the root zone is -concentrated by the extraction of water by plant roots, and by evaporation of water directly from the soil. If the quantity of water applied to the land is equal to, or less than, the amount required by the crop, or if there is a net upward movement of water from ground water, there will be a net accumulation of salts in the soil. Lands in West Pakistan have become salinized by both of these processes. The fundamental requirement for achieving salinity control is that there be established a net downward movement of water (and hence salt) through and beyond the crop root zone. If the soil will permit the downward movement of water through the root zone, and if the required drainage can he obtained, the problem of salinity control reduces to one of applying the proper amount of irrigation water. The higher the salt content, the more water is required. An extra amount, over and above crop needs, must be passed through the root zone in order to maintain a satisfactory level of salinity in the soil. Equations have been developed for estimating the increase in amount of water required for salinity control, based upon the salt content of the irrigation water and the salt tolerance of the crop. An estimate also can be made of the minimum accretion to the ground water that can be anticipated where these conditions of salinity control are maintained. These equations are given in Appendix A. 2. The basic equation for the required depth of irrigation water, Di.9 is Di/ Dc 1//(Ci /C)J, where C. = salt concentration in irrigation water, Cd = allowable salt concentration in soil water at the bottom of the root zone, and DC= consumptive use of water by evapotranspiration. For wheat, Cd = 7,9500 parts per million (ppm). The percentage increase in water supply that is needed for salinity control, as related to salt content of the irrigation water and the salt tolerance of the crop, is shown in Table 2. 2. The depth of irrigation water required, Di, is calculated as follows: 98



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Chapter 5 with Model IA indicate that an additional acre-foot of water in January and in May is worth Rs 560 and Rs 490, respectively. An addition of only 10,000 acre feet of water in January results in a 10 percent increase in total output and produces a much different cropping pattern as is shown by Model IB of Table 5.14. In addition to large quantities of sugarcane and vegetables (similar to IA), over 55,000 acres of wheat and oilseeds occur in Solution IB. The significance of the timing of irrigation water supplies leads to several other important conclusions. First, it emphasizes the contribution that tubewells can make in supplying even relatively small amounts of water during critical months. This could come about through the mining of underground water within the region (provided the groundwater is of usable quality when mixed with canal water) or from tubewells in the Indus flood plain as proposed in Chapter 7. Second, the time factor illustrates the importance of developing strains of certain crops that have varying planting and maturity dates. With more flexible production seasons, some of the difficulties of unequal supplies of water can be overcome. Third, the results indicate the costly results of canal closures. Keeping closure time at a minimum is extraordinarily important to the farmers of the region, and the development of crop varieties that can stand high moisture tension, i.e.,long intervals between irrigation, would be a further aid in solving this problem. At this point, it is necessary to discuss the sensitivity of Solution IA to the price and water coefficients used in the analysis. Table 5.18 shows that a number of crops have water requirements and prices that are approximately equal. The year-long crops of sugarcane and orchards are one such example, and wheat, oilseeds and winter vegetables are another. Relatively small changes in the price or water coefficients, or in the planting dates of these activities result in solutions that are quite different than the production pattern of Model IA. Hence, solution IA should be regarded as only one of several possible ways to use scarce resources efficiently. For while it is clear from Table 5.18 that certain low-valued crops such as gram will be excluded from almost any solution, these average data are not sufficiently precise to choose meaningfully between a number of different crops in both the kharif and rabi seasons. In addition, this similarity of coefficients means that the combination of crops and livestock that maximizes revenue will vary between farms and villages because of relatively small differences in yields, soils, etc. Therefore, it is very unlikely that there can be "one" best cropping pattern for all farms of the region. Closely associated with coefficient sensitivity is the idea of "second -best", or less than optimal, solutions. A feature of linear programming is that it 209



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Chapter 1 Yields under irrigation are ordinarily much higher than in areas where farming depends on rainfall or other natural precipitation, especially semiarid areas in which 'the rainfall is often inadequate and always uncertain. For example, in the southwestern states of the United States, where cotton is grown under irrigation, an average of two bales of cotton lint is harvested from each planted acre, while the traditional cotton-growing lands of the southeast produce only about one bale per acre, Canal-irrigated cotton lands in Pakistan yield only about 50 percent more cotton per acre than land without canal irrigation. In Hawaii, the irrigated sugar plantations produce each year a nearly unbelievable one hundred tons per acre of sugar cane, nearly five times as much as is grown in Louisiana and Florida. Canal-irrigated land planted to sugar cane in West Pakistan yields about 25 percent more than acreage which depends on rainfall. Not only are farm yields low in Pakistan at present, they are not increasing at anything like the rates attained in some of the more advanced countries. In the United States during the 1950's, the yield per acre of rice, wheat, corn, and cotton increased by about six percent a year, as can be seen in Table 1. 19. The yields of wheat in Mexico, of sorghum in the United States (similar to the jowar grown in Pakistan), and of corn in Japan and the USSR are increasing at a rate that should double productivity in less than ten years. In contrast, none of the major crops in West Pakistan, except possibly tobacco, have shown significant increases in yield per acre during the past decade, although total production of some of them has increased modestly. The Problem of Waterlogging and Salinity As soon as the new perennial canals of the Punjab were constructed and filled, it was noticed that the level of water in wells began to rise. Previously, the water.table had been close to the surface only near the junctions of the rivers in the lower reaches of the Doabs, and under the narrow marginal plains along the, river courses that were flooded each year during the monsoon. In the'centers of the Doabs, away from these active flood plains, the depth to water was initially 50 to 70 feet. This topography of the water table represented a dynamic equilibrium between infiltration of river and rain water in the northern region, underground flow, and evaporation in the southern parts of the Doabs. The equilibrium was upset by leakage from the new canals and water courses. At least a third of the water diverted to the canals percolated downward to the water table, and this greatly increased the over-all rate of infiltration. 55



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Chapter 7 (Figure 7.20) can at some sites simulate as many as a hundred wells, the multiwell unit can represent as many as 2,500 wells. In investigating general questions posed by the Panel relating to tubewell operation, the model was used to represent a rectangular array (m x n) of square areas (cells). The constraints on m and n are 1 _


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Chapter 6 While the above discussion has not included a detailed analysis of the relative production costs of growing livestock versus foodgrains, it does appear that in some areas of former Sind livestock production is a viable alternative. However, the major conclusions that should be drawn from this discussion are twofold: First, commercial livestock operations are worthy of a great deal more economic, agronomic, and animal husbandry research at experiment stations and at the farm level. Only after further research has been completed on points raised in the text and in Appendix A.6 can specific recommendations be made. Second, serious consideration must be given to possibilities of settling certain areas of Sind into larger livestock units. Though short-run "employment effects" would be reduced by such a strategy, other gains from livestock units may be considerable. The physical difficulties and high costs of reclaiming badly damaged saline and alkaline soils could be avoided, and the water and other resources thus saved could be used for more intensive development of other areas within the region. Poultry Alternatives Supplementary or specialized poultry enterprises represent still another alternative for increasing incomes and improving diets.(9) Besides being a valuable source of protein (from both meat and eggs), chickens have other desirable features for Pakistani farmers. First, they offer the possibility of a quick return on investments. With proper care, a pullet will begin laying at 4-5 months, and a three-pound broiler can be produced in less than 10 weeks. Chickens are also extremely efficient in the utilization of feed. With proper feeding, disease control and housing, a three-pound broiler can be produced with about 9 pounds of balanced feed. Similarly, a dozen eggs require only 6 to 7 pounds of feed, from hens laying at the rate of 150 eggs per year. Third, broiler production need not be seasonal. This has the important advantage of spreading labor requirements and income flows (9) We recognize that chickens are raised in limited numbers throughout West Pakistan. (Estimated population is about 7 million birds.) However, production efficiency is low, and the purpose of this discussion is to assess costs and benefits of improved methods of production. For a summary statement on how increased poultry production has aided Lebanon's development, see, Foreign Agriculture, June 10, 1963, pages 7-8. 238



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Oven, John E., Pakistan struggles for economic survival, primitive agricultural methods, regional conflicts and inflation defy easy solution: The New Leader, p. 6-7, July 6, 1959. Pakistan, Budget 1961-62, economic survey and statistics, April, 1960March, 1961: Karachi, printed by the manager, Govt. of Pakistan Press, 37, 127 p., 1961. ------Summary descriptions of projects and programmes included in the second five year plan: Karachi, 265 p., 1961. Pakistan, Atomic Energy Commission, Pakistants atomic scientists: Karachi, 24 p., 1961. Pakistan, Bureau of National Reconstruction, Guide to basic democracies: Karachi, 43 p., 196. -The scheme of basic democracies order, 1959: Karachi, Ferozsons, 26 p., 196. Pakistan, Central Fisheries Dept., Preliminary report of the marine fisheries of East Pakistan: Karachi, Govt. of Pakistan Press, 32 p., (its Technical Report no. 1) 1957. --Report on the exploratory fishing on the coast of West Pakistan for the period September, 1955 -May, 1958: Karachi, Govt. of Pakistan Press, 14 p., 1960. ------Statistics relating to fisheries in the Karachi area for 1951: Karachi, 34 p. (its Investigations Report no. 3) 1952. Pakistan, Commission on National Education, Report, January-August, 1959: Karachi, printed by the manager, Govt. of Pakistan Press, 360 p., 1960. Pakistan, Food and Agriculture Commission, Report, 1960: Karachi, 582 p., 1960. Pakistan, Laws, statutes, etc., the basic democracies (federal capital) election rules, 1959: The Gazette of Pakistan (Registered no. S.1033, extraordinary), p. 1955-1996, November 20, 1959. --Laws, statutes, etc., creation of a railway board for the administration of Pakistan railways: Ordinance no. XLVIII, issued by Ministry of Railways and Communications, 5 p., 1959 (N.W.R. Gazette, extraordinary, Thursday October 29, 1959). -----Laws, statutes, etc., draft of the East/West Pakistan Agricultural Development Corporation Ordinance, 1961: n.p., 29 p., 1961. 394



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Chapter 8 conducted by staff members of the Center. These leaders then serve as the primary agent for information transfer. In addition, the Center rents tractors, pumps, and other equipment to the village co-operatives; supervises demonstration plots and model farmers in various sections of the Thana; and administers the credit and savings program. This approach too has many attractive features., and efforts should be made to adapt the Comilla experience to experimental units in West Pakistan. Most of the research questions relevant to budgeting are also apropos to the TrainingCenter. In particular, the determination of costs, returns, and the optimal area to be covered by a Center are key points which should be analyzed. Finally, the potentialities of a number of means of mass communication should be investigated. Such devices as television, motion pictures, film strips., and cartoon books, which have proved effective in training and indoctrinating military personnel, offer promise as a means of transmitting education and information to rural populations. The fact that they present formidable problems in the provision and maintenance of equipment and in the development of program materials should not be allowed to rule them out a priori for they may prove to be an economical expedient for reaching Millions of people. In this connection., it would be very desirable to undertake experiments which determine the costs and returns associated with massmedia devices. Th extensive experience with the community development projects in India 4) shows that farmers in the subcontinent often put up a silent but stubborn resistance to attempts to alter the methods of working to which they are accustomed. The roots of this resistance go deep: a man feels confident and at ease when he does what he is used to; when he tries a new method he is nagged by the fear (often well justified) that he is not doing it right. He has developed the muscular strengths and conditioned reflexes required by his accustomed methods of working; he feels weak and clumsy when he tries new methods and new implements. There is even reason to fear that abandoning old skills and learning new ones is so unpleasant a task that even the promise of a twofold increase in his harvest is not a sufficient incentive to embark the peasant on it. (4) See S. C. Dube, India's Changing Villages (19 58) and K. Nair, -Blossoms in the Dust (1962). The former might more, accurately have been called "India's Unchanging Villages." 369



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Chapter 5 The timing of these water supplies is also somewhat capricious. The irrigation system of the Indus Valley is unique among major irrigation developments in that it includes almost no storage facilities. Water from the Indus, the Jhelumn, and the other rivers is diverted into the canal systems when and as available.. so that the timing of releases depends mostly on the arrival of the monsoons and the other, less important, rains. Furthermore, farmers are permitted to withdraw water only in accordance with a rigid cycle of allocations that does not respond to the extent of moisture depletion in their fields. As a result of these two characteristics, it is rare that water can be applied to the crops at the most advantageous time. The quality of irrigation water is extremely good, averaging about 2 50 ppm of dissolved salts. Even this moderate salt concentration can lead to difficulties, however, if the salts are allowed to accumulate in the soil over a period of decades,, as has happened in the Former Punjab. Agricultural practices in the Former Punjab are, naturally, attuned to this scanty and unreliable water supply. Several aspects of this response are worth noting. We mentioned above that customary depths of irrigation are shallow by world standards. At the same time, land in the Former Punjab is not intensively utilized in spite of the heavy pressure of population. As was seen in Table 1.12, only about two-thirds of the culturable area was actually cultivated on the average during the 1950's. Although this is partly due to abondonment of saline lands, to a large extent the restriction of acreage is dicatated by the insufficiency of the water supply: spread as thinly as it is, it still cannot cover the entire arable area. By restricting acreage and irrigating thinly the farmers economize, in a sense, on the use of water' Their third response to their inadequate water supply is to economize on the use of other agricultural inputs, particularly fertilizer and commercial high-quality seeds. They are not in a position to invest heavily in preparing crops that may fail because of lack of timely water. With respect to fertilizer, partic ularly, they recognize that it is dangerous to apply fertilizer to land without an assured water supply. Thus the chronic water shortages impede the modernization of farming methods in all respects. All this will be changed by the availability of supplementary water supplies from the tubewells. Tubewell development on the scale we are contemplating will provide more than an additional foot of irrigation water per year, and the delivery of this water can be timed quite flexibly in response to need. Furthermore the amount of water withdrawn from the aquifer be varied from year to year to compensate for variations in the supply of surface water. In short, the tubewells will provide an enhanced, more reliable, and better timed flow of water than has ever before been available in the Former Punjab. 186



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xA -----C CO R#WTER TABLE AFTE£R TWo ---. .......... .... ....-..... .. M WATER TABLE AFTER TWOET YEARS, TSOTSRECHARGE R.WATER TABLE AFTER TWEAY YEARS, MR=5.9x-0 ape N, N WATER TABLE AFTER TWO AND TWENTY YEARSRESPECTIVELY. TR.. 2XIOqd O.0= WATER TABLE AFTER TWo AND TWENTY YEARS. NO RECHARGE PROFILE OF PREDICTED WATER-TABLE CONFIGURATION Figure 7.11 Modeled Ten-Mile Strip of Aquifer: Water table profiles for six analogue computer studies with different pumping and recharge rates.



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Table 2.2 Percentage increase in quantity of water required for irrigation Salt .. .. ..______________ ____________ content Crops of low salt Crops of medium salt Crops of high salt of tolerance (pulses, tolerance (maize, sortolerance (cotton, irrigation beans) ghum, sugar canes sugar beets, barley) water rice) (ppm) (Cd = 2500 ppm) (Cd u 5000 ppm) (Cd u 10, 000 ppm) 0 0 0 0 200 9 4 2 500 25 11 5 1000 67 25 11 2000 400 67 25 3000 -150 43 5000 .100 From data of the Salinity Laboratory, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Riverside, California. 117



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Table 1.14 Nutritional Value of Agricultural Production in West Pakistan Average for 1949-50 to 1958-59 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) Energy Protein Percent exProducAvailable in household Crop 106large kilotracted tion per person per day calories grams for food 106 tons grams large grams of per. ton per ton of food calories protein Food grains Rice (cleaned) 3.65 76 92 0.82 58 206 4.3 Wheat 3.65 107 78 3.47 207 740 21.8 Barley 3.40 76 58 .13 6 19 .4 Jowar (Sorghum) 3.56 102 82 .25 15 55 1.6 Bajra (millets) 3.56 122 81 .34 21 73 2.5 Maize 3.56 112 90 .42 28 101 3.2 Total Food Grains 5.42 335 1194 33.8 Other Food Crops Gram 3.65 229 89 0.60 40 146 9.2 Other pulses 3.65 239 89 .20 13 49 3.2 Oil seeds 3.05 1 92 .20 14 42 --Cotton seed 1.83 1 80 .55 33 60 --Cane sugar (gur) 3.15 2 100 .85 65 202 .1 Fruits .41 20 95 .72 52 21 1.0 Roots and tubers .82 20 91 .11 8 6 .2 Other vegetables .21 15 96 .97 70 15 1.1 Total other food crops 4.20 295 541 14.8 Animal foods Meat 1.32 142 100 (0.20) (15) 20 2.1 Fish .92 142 100 (.03) (2) (3) .3 Butter and ghee 8.64 5 100 .08 6 52 --Slaughter fats 6.19 5 81 .01 1 6 --Whole milk .81 41 100 (1.6)(8) (130)(8) (105)(8) 5.3 Eggs 2.03 122 100 .01 1 2 .1 Total Animal Foods 2.30 173 188 7.8 Grand Total 11.92 803 1923 57.2 For notes see next page. 86



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Chapter 1 The West Pakistan Flood Commission has estimated the extent of damage caused by recent floods in the various districts of the Former Punjab for the years extending from 1948 to 1960, including numbers of villages damaged or destroyed, loss of human life and livestock, cultivated acreage affected, and the approximate value of crops destroyed. Table 1.1.2 summarizes the estimates of the value of crops lost to floods. Rechna Doab suffered the most extensive crop losses. Bani Doab, along the Ravi River and at the confluence of the Ravi and the Chenab in Multan District, also had sizeable losses. The maximum flood damage occurred in three Districts: Sheikhupura, southwestern Jhang at the confluence of the IRavi and the Chenab Rivers, and the Shahpur portion of Chaj Doab. In all three regions the water table lies within a few feet of the ground surface. The average annual loss in value of crops due to flood damage appears to be a little less than one percent of the total annual value of crops grown in West Pakistan (see Table 1.6). River and Canal Waters The average annual inflow of the Indus and its tributaries, measured at the six gauging stations on the rim of the Indus Plain, is about 170 million acre feet. This is twice the flow of the Nile and more than ten times that of the Colorado River. In Europe, only the Danube compares in size, and in the United States, only the Mississippi and the Columbia are larger. Half the water carried onto the Plain by the rivers is diverted into irrigation canals; a net of about 10 percent is lost by evaporation and infiltration, and the remainder flows to the sea unused, almost entirely during the months of the monsoon floods in summer. The river flows are highly seasonal. As Table 1.2 shows, 84 percent of the annual flow occurs during the six months of the summer (Kharif) growing season, from April to September, and 16 percent during the winter (Rabi) season, from October to March. Nearly half (44 percent) of the total volume is carried during July and August, and only 8 percent in the four months f rom November to February. Variations from year to year, though great in absolute magnitude, are comparatively much smaller than the seasonal variations. Over the twenty-five year period from 192 1-22 to 1945-46, the maximum annual flow was 189 million acre feet, and the minimum 139 million acre feet. We estimate that for the five years ending 19 56-57, the annual diversion from the rivers into irrigation canals averaged 83.6. million acre feet, of 32



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Chapter 8 Nevertheless, the reform of agricultural methods is as important to the success of the agricultural development program as the augmentation of the water supply. Research is required into the roots of the resistance just recounted, into the best methods for evading and overcoming these resistances, and particularly into discovering which effective methods of cultivations are likely to meet the smallest resistances. This field of research is by no means virgin, but still much more needs to be known before we can feel confident that new methods of cultivation can be introduced successfully. Population Research In the long run factors influencing population growth and the effectiveness of family planning programs may have a more important impact on the wellbeing of Pakistan than the factors influencing agricultural productivity that have been our main concern. The present rate of population increase in West Pakistan is at least 2.4 percent per year. The child mortality rate is reported to be very high for children under the age of 10. The most immediate effect of any agricultural improvement project is likely to be a reduction in this death rate accompanied, perhaps, by an increase in the birthrate consequent upon improved nutrition.for expectant mothers. Since there is an upper bound to food production, enforced by the limited supply of water, a stable population size will be required eventually. While this problem is world-wide, it is particularly acute in the less developed countries. Research into suitable family planning methods, and most important, into techniques for making them acceptable, is needed. Since acceptance is likely to be slow, efforts along these lines, which are modest at present, should be accelerated. ,PhysicalBiological Research. Agricultural Research It is contemplated that each of the agricultural development regions will b6 equipped with at least one agricultural experiment station. Each of these experiment stations, it is expected, will emphasize studies of problems of particular importance to its region, but at the same time their research program should be coordinated so as to supplement each other to the maximum extent feasible. One of the main responsibilities of all the experiment stations will be the improvement of the yield and the disease resistance of food and fiber crops. An example of what might be done in the wheat improvement program will serve to suggest the possibilities. Advantage could be taken of the existence 370



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Chapter 1 Five major rivers cross the plain in Pakistan. From west to east, they are the Indus itself, the Jhelum, the Chenab, the Ravi, and the Sutlej. Of these, the Indus is by far the largest. Arising in the Himalayas, it flows for a thousand miles in a deep gorge through the mountains, draining an enormous area, before it enters the foothills and basins of the Former Northwest Frontier, and thence debouches onto the plain. The other four rivers are tributaries of the Indus; they arise in the hills of Kashmir and Jammu and are fed by the western slopes of the Himalayas. A fifth tributary, the Beas, formerly ran through what is now West Pakistan, but it has changed it course, and at present joins the Sutlej in India. The Jhelum and the Chenab converge about a hundred and eighty miles below the border; in turn they are joined by the Ravi some forty miles further downstream. The Sutlej joins the others at Panjnad -the place of the five rivers -and the combined stream flows on to meet the Indus near the northern edge of the former state of Sind. The areas between the rivers are called Doabs. Sind Sagar, or Thal Doab, lies between the Indus and the Jhelum. Between the Jhelum and the Chenab is Chaj Doab, its name being taken from an abbreviation of the names of the two rivers. Rechna Doab, between the Chenab and the Ravi, is similarly named. Bari Doab, which in Pakistan lies between the Ravi and the Sutlej, was given its name because in its northern section, now in India, it is bounded on the east by the Beas. These four Doabs make up the southeast part of the former state of the Punjab in West Pakistan. Beyond the Sutlej lies the former state of Bahawalpur. Its fertile cultivated portion extends in a narrow strip between the left bank of the Sutlej and the Thar Desert. Southwest of Former Bahawalpur, below the confluence of the rivers, is the region called Former Sind. The settled part of West Pakistan is divided into twelve Divisions, and each of these in turn into three to five Districts. In the Indus Plain, these Districts vary in size from 1.3 million to more than 4 million acres. As. shown on Map 1.1, many of the Districts in the Former Punjab lie entirely within a single Doab. From northeast to southwest in Bari Doab are Lahore (1.4 million acres), Montgomery-(2.7 million acres), and Multan (3..6 million acres). Similarly in Rechna Doab, Sialkot District (1.3 million acres) lies to the northeast, followed by Gujranwala (1.5 million acres), Sheikhupura (1.5 million acres), and Lyallpur (2.25 million acres). The southeastern flank of Rechna Doab makes up part of Jhang (2.2 million acres), but this District also covers the extreme southern corner of Chaj Doab 22



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Chapter 7 shown for well depths of 50 feet and 250 feet, for two pumping rates (0.88 and 1.67 acre feet per acre per year),for the case of no drainage (y-z = 0) and the case of 10 percent drainage (y-z = 0.10y). The graphs show two horizontal lines indicating two salt concentrations (1100 and 2500 milligrams per liter) in the applied irrigation water that approximately delimit the zone in which salt concentrations begin to inhibit and finally to impair seriously the production of salt-sensitive crops. Five of the runs showed concentrations in and above this zone within an economic time -horizon of 25 years. The runs simulating the condition of no drainage indicate that high concentrations will be built up after twenty-five years and that this condition could not long be tolerated. The principal conclusions gained from the salt flow model are: 1. The spacing of wells has no effect on the salt build -up characteristics of irrigation water provided the same amounts of water per unit area are applied and other factors held constant and provided the wells have the same depth. 2. Two effects were found in simulation studies with wells of different depths: (a) the rate of salt build-up increases in inverse proportion to the depth, and (b) the salinity of irrigation water due to salt initially on the surface of the ground increases in inverse proportion to depth. 3. The rate of salt build-up increases very nearly in direct proportion to the pumping rate, other factors being held constant. 4. Surface drainage of about 10 percent of the tubewell pumping over a 50year period is needed to preclude eventual excessive salt accumulation in the root zones of the crops. More than 15 percent is unnecessary and less than 5 percent is ineffective. In many cases the pumps-to-drain flow can be delayed for 10 or even 20 years without excessive salt build-up provided that the total drainage in 50 years is equal to about 10 percent of the total pumpage.(19) (19)In the water budget the amount of tubewell pumpage was estimated to be approximately 59 maf/yr including mining and recycling. Accordingly, the ultimate rate of export would be 5 naf/ yr to inhibit excessive build-up. However, in the initial period of development the export rate would not have to exceed 1 maf/yr. There are three possible methods of disposing of saline tubewell effluent: (1) return by surface drain channels to the river system; (2) export to salt lagoons in desert areas; and (3) export to the Arabian Sea in a long drainage channel. 305



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.C'3-Pppendix A. 5 devoted to any crop be reduced below specified levels that approximate the historical cropping patterns in the district served by the Lower Chenab Canal. This device assured at least a minimal production of all the crops currently grown in the region. This computation, it will be noted, requires one type of data not previously encountered in our work, namely estimates of the value of the transferrable economic resources required to grow an acre of each of the crops considered. Such estimates proved extremely difficult to obtain. The typical holding in the Punjab is quite small, five or six acres, divided into a number of even smaller sub-holdings many of less than an acre's extent. The cultivator, whether he be proprietor or tenant, typically grows a number of different crops in the different parts of his holding and, since it would be inappropriate for him to keep elaborate records for such a small -enterprise, it is extremely difficult to know how much of his effort and resources were devoted to' the cultivation of each of his plots. About all that one can estimate fairly reliably is the value of purchased inputs used, consisting mostly of seed, fertilizer, and agricultural implements, all of which are in practice almost negligible amounts in current methods of cultivation. The sole exception to this seems to be in the case of sugarcane, where substantial expenditures are often made for fertilizer and even more substantial ones for seed. In the absence of reliable data on farm operating expenses for different crops we have taken a nominal amount of ten rupees per acre as the cost of cultivation of all crops except sugarcane, and of one hundred and ten rupees per acre for sugarcane. These estimates, of course, are very much smaller than the estimates of farm operating expenses given in such sources as the Farm Accounts and Family Budgets(8) series. Nevertheless the estimates adopted were deemed appropriate for a number of reasons. The cost estimates required are the values of the additional economic resources that will be required in conjunction with the increased supplies of water. The rental value of the new land brought into cultivation, for example, is not one of these economic resources, because this land is not a resource that will have to be diverted from other productive uses. Neither should additional water rates and taxes be included, the former because they will be accounted for separately in the cost of tubewell amortization and operation, the latter because they are a transfer payment to the government, not representing any resource use. The cost of (8) Lahore: Board of Economic Inquiry, Punjab (Pakistan), various dates. 427



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Table A.5.1--Continued M X S Canal (rmds/ ac) inches) inches) (inches) (nhs 55-56 56-57 57-58 55-56 56-57 57-58 Bajra Central Bari Doab 7.4 6.7* 22.6 15.6 Lower Bari Doab 9.8 7.5 25.7 14.6 25.1 Upper Chenab 9.0 ** 22.9 11.7 ** Lower Chenab 7.8 8.8 23.9 17.1 13.3 Upper Jhelum 7.4 7.4* 22.3 19.8 Lower Jhelum 6.8 7.9 25.5 20.6 15.9 Pakpattan 6.7* 6.6 25.8 22.5 Dipalpur 8.1* 25.1 * Mailsi 5.5* 5.2* 25.8 * Haveli 7.0 6.2 25.8 15.5 17.2 Rangpur 6.3* 5.9* 25.3 * Maize Central Bari Doab 10.2 10.6* 21.6 16.7 Lower Bari Doab 11.7 9.6 24.5 15.4 24.0 Upper Chenab 12.0 ** 22.0 14.2 ** Lower Chenab 13.3 13.6 22.8 19.3 15.6 Upper Jhelum 10.4 10.4* 21.3 19.7 Lower Jhelum 9.7 10.7 24.3 20.8 17.7 Pakpattan 9.7* 9.5 24.6 22.2 Dipalpur 9.7* 9.9* 24.0 * Mailsi 9.7* 9.2* 24.6 * Haveli 10.5 10.0 24.6 18.9 18.9 Rangpur 9.8* 9.9* 24.1 * Cotton (Desi) Central Bari Doab 6.1 5.4* 36.7 26.0 Lower Bari Doab 7.2 6.0 40.4 25.8 39.4 Upper Chenab 7.9 ** 36.9 19.8 ** Lower Chenab 6.4 7.3 38.3 29.2 21.4 Upper Jhelum 7.2 6.5* 35.9 33.2 Lower Jhelum 6.6 7.7 40.7 35.5 28.8 Pakpattan 6.1* 6.0 40.5 35.8 Dipalpur 5.9* 5.9* 39.7 * Mailsi 6.1* 5.8* 40.5 * Haveli 6.5 6.3 40.5 29.5 29.1 Rangpur 3.8* 4.3* 40.0 * See footnotes at end of table. 431



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Chapter 2 A sampling survey of actual farmers' experiences with nitrogen fertilizer was conducted in 1958-59 by th-, M2inistry of Food and Agriculture of the Government of Pakistan. Nearly 2,200 farmers in 15 Districts of West Pakistan were asked whether they used fertilizer, and, if so, what results they had obtained. In 5 Districts 3.5 percent or more of the farmers admitted to using fertilizer on wheat. In these Districts, 171 of the cultivators who were questioned had applied an average of 22,5 pounds of nitrogen per acre to their wheat crop. They believed that they had obtained, on the average, a yield increase of about 300 pounds, very close to the results observed by Drs. Wahhab and Vermaat with 30 pounds of nitrogen per acre. Estimates of the response of wheat to fertilizer based on an earlier series of trials have also been published by Wahhab (1960). A somewhat lower estimate, which may be based on the same data, has been published by the Planning Commission of Pakistan (1959). All these sources agree that an increase in wheat yield of about 300 to 400 pounds per acre can be attained by applying moderate amounts of nitrogen. The data and estimates for wheat are summarized in Table 2.4 together with farm experience and estimates of increased yields from application of nitrogen on other important crops, published by the Planning Commission (1959), and by Wahhab (1960). Except for rice, which requires ammonium nitrogen(1), all of the usual, forms of commercial nitrogen can be utilized, but only soluble forms of phosphorus fertilizers, such as superphosphates, should be employed. The need for nitrogen fertilizers is greatest, Crops use large amounts of nitrogen, and, because it is a highly mobile nutrient, there is a minimum of carryover from one growing season to another. In contrast, phosphorus is retained by soil, and plants use smaller amounts. Relatively high initial applications of phosphorus fertilizer will be needed to overcome the inherent soil deficiency, but subsequent additions can be more modest. The phosphorus fertilizer should be applied to a highly responsive crop in the rotation, such as wheat or legumes. On the average, at least 30 pounds of elemental nitrogen per acre per crop could be profitably used at the present time. On land that has not (1) Urea can be used on rice,because it behaves in solution like ammonia. 101



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Chapter 7 Chenab River a distance of 55 miles, as shown in Figure 7.12. Regional drawdown data were obtained for a pumping period of 20 years with discharge rates of 200 and 600 gallons per minute per well. The potential recharge rates in the simulation were 105 gallons per day per square mile and 5 x 106 gallons per day per mile of river. The term "potential recharge" is used bacause the electrical inputs simulating recharge of the aquifer were biased so that recharge Only occurred with two or more feet of drawdown. With the water table at depths less than 2 feet it was assumed that evapotranspiration would prevent recharge. Thus, as shown on Figure 7.12, recharge occurred only within the 2-foot drawdown contour. Recharge from the rivers occurred only along the segment of river bounded by the 2-foot drawdown contour. The parameters used in the model were as follows: Transmissibility (T) = 500,000 gpd/ft Storage coefficient (S) = 0.25 Number of wells 500 Spacing of wells = 1 mile on a cartesian grid Discharge per well = 200 and 600 gpd Pumping time = 20 years Recharge: Areal = 105 gpd/sq mi From rivers = 5 x 106 gpd/mile Figure 7.12 is a map of a portion of Chaj Doab. The grid spacing of 2 miles on this map corresponds to a spacing of 2 inches in the model. Within the project area there are 500 tubewells. The numbers of the map give drawdowns in feet below the initial static level of the water table. These data were taken directly from oscilloscope readings. Four studies were made as follows: Run no. Pumping rate per well Recharge areal Recharge from rivers gpm ft/ yr gpd/ sq mile gpd/ mile A 200 0.5 0 0 B 200 0.5 105 5 x 106 C 600 1.5 0 0 D 600 1.5 105 5 x 106 The drawdowns for Run D are indicated on Figure 7.12. Run D had pumping and recharge rates of about the same magnitude as those in our Plan. It may be noted that there is substantial dewatering in an area of about 1,000 square miles outside of the project area. In this outside area the accumulation of salt from evaporation of groundwater would be stopped; it could be reversed if additional water were available for periodic leaching to remove the accumulated salt. 294



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Gardner, W. R., Some steady-state solutions of the unsaturated moisture flow equation with application to evaporation from a water table: Soil Science, 85 (4), p. 228-232, April, 1958. Gardner, W. R., and Brooks, R. H., A descriptive theory of leaching: Soil Science, 83 (4), p. 295-304, April, 1957. Gardner, W. R., and Fireman, Milton, Laboratory studies of evaporation from soil columns in the presence of a water table: Soil Science, 85 (5), p. 244-249, May, 1958. Gardner, W. R., and Mayhugh, M. S., Solutions and tests of the diffusion equation for the movement of water in soil: Soil Science Society of America, Proceedings, 22 (3), p. 197-201, May-June, 1958. Gardner, W. R., and others, Effect of electrolyte concentration and exchangeable-sodium percentage on diffusivity of water in soils: Soil Science, 88 (5), p. 270-274, November, 1959. Gee, Edward Rowland, The problem of the saline series, salt range, Punjab: Geol. Soc. London, Quarterly Jour., v. 105, pt. 2, p. xlvii, 1949. Glennie, E; A., Gravity data and crustal warping in north west Pakistan and adjacent parts of India: Royal Astronomical Society Monthly Notices, Geophysics, Supplement, v. 7, no. 4, p. 162-175, 1956. Gulick, Luther H., Jr., Irrigation systems of the former Sind province, West Pakistan: Geog. Review, New York, p. 79-99, January, 1963. Haig, M. R., The Indus Delta country: London, 1887. ---The Indus Delta country -a memoir chiefly on its ancient geography and history: Kegan, Paul Trench, Trubner and Co., London, 1894. Haise, H. R., and Viets, F. G., Jr., Water requirements as influenced by fertilizer use: International Commission on Irrigation and Drainage, 3d Congress, San Francisco, Question 8, R. 25, p. 497-508, 1957. Hamilton, J., Stanberry, C. 0., and Wootton, W. M., Cotton growth and production as affected by moisture, nitrogen, and plant spacing on the Yuma mesa: Soil Science Society of America, Proceedings, 20 (2), p. 246-252, April, 1956. Hanks, R. J., Water vapor transfer in dry soil: Soil Science Society of America, Proceedings, 22 (5), p. 372-374, September-October, 1958. 386



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Chapter 4 elite Civil Service of India. It became the nucleus of the equally elite Civil Service of Pakistan (CSP). There is also a Provincial Civil Service. The CSP is number one of the several Central Superior Services.. Its members are carefully chosen in youth. After graduation from a university, they are trained in an academy, basically as generalists in administration, and usually start up the career ladder in the provincial districts. Generally, in the Central Superior Services there is an environment of career rigidity and inevitability. Also, there appears to be a limitation on the governmental status and participation of such professional services as agriculture, health, and welfare. Another heritage has been the secretariat system, which seems designed to separate policy-making from policyexecution and to segregate policy officials from operating officials. In these days of rapid. processing of development projects, this interruption of the decision process, this separation. of technical knowledge from the administrative perspective, can be a serious handicap. Built into the secretariat system has been a "noting prces which provides for multiple review and comment before a file reaches a decision-making officer. This hag been a tedious and delaying procedure. Anothe' obstacle to rapid progress of programs has been a system of expenditure sanctions imposed upon a system of budget allotments. This may reflect weakness in the budget system. Whatever the explanation, it has the effect of passing on decisions from operating officials to finance officials or clerks with inevitable delay and no assurance of better decisions. Another significant facet of the governmental system is the Office of the District Officer or Deputy Commissioner and the office of his supervisor, the Commissioner Head of a Division. In West Pakistan there are 50 districts and 12 divisions. Together these offices form part of the system of decentralization. The District Officer is a key outpost of the provincial government. He is directly responsible for law and order, for justice and for revenue collection. He attempts to coordinate other operations of government in his district-no easy task in any government. The office has a special significance in the absence of adequate local government institutions. It may have great potential as a transition point between Provincial and local government development. Reform These notes on basic institutional features would be grossly inadequate without a sequel of comment on adjustment, growth, and change. The 170



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Chapter 6 throughout the year. Finally, a poultry-raising unit that does not produce a substantial part of the feed supply requires very little land. Unlike many livestock enterprises, the production of chickens is quite consistent with small, fragmented land holdings, provided of course, that other farms specialize in feedgrain production. In spite of these desirable qualities, it is important to examine the biological and economic factors that limit poultry production in West Pakistan. In the first place, intensive or confined feeding of birds demands a high level of expertise in management. In Pakistan, fowl are generally scavengers and, as a result, rates of gain are low and egg production is meager.(10) Disease is an even more important problem, and at the present time, mortality rates are often prohibitively high. Given the small number or birds that can survive as scavengers because of disease and food shortages, it would be very unwise to recommend increased poultry production under present management practices. If poultry production is to increase significantly, changed methods of production and im roved management are essential. Chickens must be fed balanced rations, 11) and because of disease problems it is likely that even small flocks will require raised cages or pens. Unless the details of feed, water, ventilation and disease control are given particular emphasis, high mortality rates, limited egg product, and low rates of gain will continue.(12) (10) Egg production is about 6-8 dozen per hen per year in Pakistan versus 15 to 20 dozen in the United States. (11) For an excellent discussion of (1) poultry nutrient requirements and (2) diseases which result from specific nutrient deficiences, see: National Academy of Sciences-National Research Council, Nutrient Requirements of Poultry, (Revised, January 1954). (12) In the United States, as late as 1951, the chicken mortality rate was an important problem. A survey of 46 midwestern flocks showed a yearly mortality rate of 29 percent per year. See: C. E. Bundy and R. V. Diggins, Livestock and Poultry Production, (Prentice-Hall, 1954) page 513. 239



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Bund, Manual, Govt. of Sind, Public Works Dept., Central Designs Div., Mech. and Research Circle, Karachi, 1954. Canada Dept. of Mines and Technical Surveys, Maps on landforms, use and soils of West Pakistan: Published by the Govt. of Canada for the Govt. of Pakistan, Ottawa, scale 1:253,440, 1956. Contents 1. Karachi 35-L-P 14. Multan 39-J-N 2. Badin 40-D-H 15. Montgomery 44-B-F 3. Hyderabad 40-C-G 16. Khudian 44-J-N 4. Dadu 35-J-N 17. Dera Ismail Khan 39-I-M 5. Nawabshah 40-B-F 18. Lyallpur 44-A-E 6. Mehar 35-I-M 19. Lahore 44-I-M 7. Khairpur 40-A-E 20. Mianwali 38-L-P 8. Gandava 34-L-P 21. Sargodha 43-D-H 9. Jacobabad 39'D-H 22. Sialkot 43-L-P 13. Rahimyar 23. Kohat 38-K-0 Khan 39-L-P 24. Rawalpindi 43-C-G 11. Sibi 34-0 39-C 25, Peshawar 38-N 12. Bahawalpur 39-K-0 43-B 13. Mailsi 44-C-G Charpie, Robert A., Pakistan, a zase study of a developing country: Karachi, Pakistan, Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission, 15 p., 1961. Chaudhri, Ikram Ilahi, The vegetation of the waterlogged areas of district Sheikhupura of Punjab: Pakistan Jour. of Forestry, v. iii, no. 2, p. 74-83, 1953, Chhibber, H. L., The age, origin and classification of the rivers of India: National Geographical Society of India, Bull, no. 1, 9 p., 1946. -------Westerly drift of rivers of northern India and Pakistan: National Geographical Society of India, Bull. n. 12, 16 p., no. 14, p. 64, 1949, 1950. Chughtai, M. I. D., and Khan, A. Waheed, Nutritive value of foodstuffs and planning of satisfactory diets in Pakistan, part 1, composition of raw-foodstuffs; Lahore (Pakistan) Division of Biochemistry, Institute of Chemistry, Punjab University, 34 p., 1960. Comilla Kotwali Thana Central Co-operative Association, Ltd., Abhoy Ashram, Comilla, East Pakistan By-laws: Comilla, Pakistan Academy for Village Development, 29 p., 1962, Corey, A. T. jand Kemper, W. D., Concept of total potential in water and its limitations: Soil Science, 91 (5), p. 299-302, May, 1961. 383



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Chapter 6 PRODUCTIVITY INCREASES FROM FURTHER AGRICULTURAL DIVERSIFICATION Much of the preceding discussion has focused on increasing the production of West Pakistan's traditional crops. We have seen, for example, that there are large potential benefits from increased supplies of water and from an integrated application of all the factors of production. While increased crop output is an important aspect of rural development, it is by no means the only way in which development can proceed. In many areas, new kinds of agricultural enterprises could make possible improved diets and increased incomes. It would be naive, however., to believe that further agricultural diversification will be easy to obtain in West Pakistan. Identification of new alternatives will require extensive research at agricultural experiment stations and at centers of economic and social research; furthermore, numerous farm trials will have to be made before new production programs can be recommended for widespread use. At the farm level, diversification will involve innovation and reorganization. In a rural economy where incomes are low, where indebtedness is high, where uncertainty is a major consideration in farm planning, where cultural factors condition economic values, and where self-sufficiency in food production has been the key to survival, farmers must overcome many constraints if they are to change traditional production patterns. Because wrong production decisions are very costly to them, the farmers place a high premium on what they know with certainty even though new production patterns may offer the prospect of increasing their incomes. In spite of these difficulties, diversification could play an increasingly important role in West Pakistan's agricultural development. Implementation of the plan described earlier should create a more favorable environment for innovation. For example, the control of waterlogging and salinity, and the application of increased physical inputs such as water and fertilizer, will allow the widespread production of crops that otherwise could not have been grown successfully. Secondly, increased communication with farmers through farm budgeting processes, demonstration plots, rural education, and other means can help to make farmers better informed and more receptive to new production alternatives. Finally, the increased farm output 232



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Chapter 2 The Second Five-year Plan provides for use of 40,000 tons of superphosphate in West Pakistan during 1962-63, and 70,000 tons in 1964-65. Of this latter amount, 18,000 tons of ordinary superphosphate would be produced by the Lyallpur plant, and 52,000 tons, presumably triple superphosphate, would be imported. This planned amount of P205 in 1964-65 should be sufficient to fertilize nearly two million cultivated acres with an average dose of 30 pounds to the acre. If the same amount is distributed during the following two years, five and a half million acres should have received a minimum dose (30 pounds per acre every three years). To provide the minimum phosphate requirement for the entire 32 minion cultivated acres of West Pakistan, it would be necessary to use *160,000 tons Of P205 each year. This amounts to 335,000 tons of 48 percent triple superphosphate, and would cost, if imported, $24 million in foreign currency. The total costs at the farm would approximate Rs 139 million., equivalent to $29 million. If all phosphate fertilizer were made in Pakistan, its cost at the farm would probably not be less than this amount, and might be higher. But the drain on foreign exchange would be considerably reduced. The minimum total requirements for phosphate fertilizers over our 25 million-acre projects would be essentially the same in amount as the present needs of all cultivated lands in West Pakistan, and the costs would be similar. Summary of Fertilizer Costs Additional Capital Operating Costs In Equivalent In Equivalent millions in millions millions in millions of of of of Rupees Dollars Rupees Dollars Nitrogen 950 200 125 Phosphate 157 33 139 29 Total 1,117 235 569 119 106



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Chapter 4 policies and programs and to participate in the planning of projects that undertake to implement them, specifically including reclamation projects. If the Board presently does not have the powers, it should be given powers to make firm arrangements for deputation of staff to the Board and for services from other agencies. Also, it should have full powers to delegate to a Director in each Project area. Executive Officers of the Board Provision should be made for an Executive Officer or Directorate for planning and coordination among project areas and for secretariat services to the Board. The Project Director The Board should delegate generously to the Project Director. He should have authority to supervise and direct the project personnel-not merely to coordinate their activities. The Project Director immediately should assume responsibility for the staff of the Board presently working in Rechna Doab. Also there should be immediate transfer of the WAPDA employees assigned to operation and maintenance of tubewell operation. Deputation from Departments of Agriculture and Irrigation Arrangements should follow promptly for the deputing of the extension staff of the Department of Agriculture up to and including the District Agricultural officer. Similarly, water management personnel--excluding canal maintenance--of the Department of Irrigation should be deputed, up to and including the Executive Engineer. 181



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ZWppendix A. 6. AREAS OF FURTHER RESEARCH FOR ASSESSING LIVESTOCK ALTERNATIVES IN PAKISTAN The following list of questions are included to illustrate the complexity of further livestock diversification in West Pakistan. In addition, they give an indication of the data required for more precise analyses. 1. What are the systems of land and resource holding? 2. What are the problems in control of public and quasi-public lands with regard to: a. Nomadic tribal movements? b. Settlement laws? 3. What areas could be made available for livestock units? 4. What are possible combinations of public and private lands for: a. Investment in development? b. Control of use? 5. What are possible arrangements for joint use by: a. Lease? b. Easement? c. Ownership? 6. What are the sources of credit and who should do the credit supervision? 7. What are possible solutions for people displaced by accumulating land into larger units? 8. What is the minimum size of an efficient livestock unit? 9. How many sheep per shepherd? 438



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Chapter 8 farmer to modify his habitual methods of cultivation. We are not so naive as to believe that the Pakistani farmer can or should be persuaded to adopt American methods of cultivation. But what methods of cultivation should he adopt; what methods and what implements are suitable for the fragmented holdings, the sandy soils, and the pitiless sun of West Pakistan? These are questions that must be studied persistently in each project area. Agricultural Iigplements Very closely allied to this undertaking is the development of suitable agricultural implements. The rather modest-scaled effort along these lines at Lyallpur University is of first importance; it should be continued and expanded. The search should be pursued for improved plows, dibblera, fertilizer spreaders, and all manner of agricultural implements that score high on the criteria of effectiveness, economy, maintainability, and, above all, acceptability to the farmer. Our interest in the study of agricultural implements is not altogether as modest as the foregoing discussion may suggest. It is evident from all studies which have been made that the bullock, camel.. donkey, water buffalo, and milch cow provide a most inefficient means of producing energy and transportation on the farm. These animals consume a large proportion of the crops raised and require a large amount of labor. Equally serious is the fact that with bullock power it may be impossible to prepare land for double cropping in the. short interval between harvesting and planting. Increased attention should be given to the possibility of developing small, efficient powered tractors. We do not intend to suggest that animal power should be replaced immediately. However, experience in other countries indicates that as the intensity of production increases and as the land consolidation program develops it will be both necessary and possible to introduce small power equipment. In the beginning it may be necessary to work out government ownership of such equipment as well as utilizing co-operatives and purchases by the larger farms. Simple, rugged farm machines now exist that require a minimum of fuel and can do the work of many animals. A hand guided tractor is available that can plow, harrow, cultivate, mow and spray. Depending on the operation, it can handle from 2.5 to 7.5 acres per day. Initial experience could be gained by introducing these tractors in conjunction with the research stations and experimental farms. 372



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Chapter 8 After the groundwater table has been lowered from close to the surface, great storage capacity will exist in the underground aquifer. Under these conditions,which are the reverse,.of the canal seepage cases, it would be most beneficial to facilitate seepage into the ground. Studies of the flow characteristics of the ground, recharge rates, canal design and management to maximize seepage, and field experimentation are needed to determine the feasibility of developing underground storage reservoirs. Education and Training It goes without saying that the execution of the agricultural development program will require the services of a large number of men who possess substantial technical and administrative skills. Such men are scarce in Pakistan. The development of an adequate corps of technically and administratively trained men must be an integral part of the agricultural development program. No enduring improvement in productivity can be attained unless a widespread effort in this direction is carried on. The administration of the program must be designed to afford opportunities for training and education at many levels. In-service training there will be, nolens volens. In addition the agricultural development program will afford opportunities for an extensive internship program to be carried out in cooperation with the agricultural colleges and universities. There will be much useful work for the interns to perform, and their education will benefit greatly from contact with field problems and from contacts with the permanent staff of the development program. Every opportunity should be taken to involve young Pakistanis in the work of the project area administrations. This is the best way to arouse interest, hope and spirit in an emerging country. It will draw the attention of Pakistani youths to urgent problems at home where they can make important personal contributions. Their horizons will be broadened and their enthusiasms kindled by working side by side with young foreign personnel such as members of the Peace Corps. The research activities of the development program should be carried on in close collaboration with related endeavors at the colleges, universities, and technical institutions. Faculty members at educational institutions should be employed as consultants and as full-time workers between semesters. The results of research carried on under the auspices of the development program should be announced at seminars at the universities and should be published through the university journals and monograph series. 374



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Chapter 7 With each of the pumping patterns shown in Figure 7.23 three rates of irrigation were investigated: 1.67; 2.01; and 2.51 acre feet per acre per year. The relative proportions used in each season were the same as those in the Project Two Feasibility Report. (2l1) The computer studies indicated that three types of water table level response occurred depending upon the areal rate of pumping, (1) With low rates the water tables remained high and, except for seasonal and stochastic variations, were largely unaffected by the tubewells; (2) At intermediate rates the groundwater was slowly lowered to permanent levels of 12 to 30 feet depending upon the rate; seasonal variations in level occurred but stochastic perturbations, for example from occasional high intensity rain-~fall, were considerably reduced; and (3) With high pumping rates, such as '~envisaged in the Panel Plan, the rate of lowering was rapid and nearly constant. At these rates which exceeded the maximum recharge rate the aquifer was mined and an approximately lower relationship between depth and pump ing time was found. Seasonal and stochastic variations tended to disappear when water levels fall below thirty feet. Non-beneficial evapotranspiration losses were considerably reduced. When the annual irrigation target was less than 1.67 acre feet per acre per year an equilibrium condition was soon reached with a high water table which fluctuated from season to season in a cyclical manner. Results obtained for the twelve runs are described in detail in the Report of the Harvard Water Resources Group. As an example of these, history curves of drawdown are shown in Figure 7.24 at three rates of irrigation for twentyfive wells in a 5 x 5 matrix. In this particular study the canal-plus -water course leakage feedback relation was adjusted so that the leakage rate was reduced by fifty percent. This represents about the maximum reduction that can be obtained in practice at present with emulsion sealants. The effect was to speed the dewatering process in the first two or three years. After ~this the rate of lowering did not differ greatly from that in runs in which the effect of sealants was not built into the leakage feedback relation. In all runs of this type the rate of lowering of the water table was rapid at first with a gradual reduction occurring as the result of evaporation recovery and capture of recharge from adjoining cells (if any) that were not being pumped. In Figure 7.25 is shown a close-up of the top curve in Figure 7.24 which indicates the details of rise and fall due to seasonal fluctuations in inflow, rain, and irrigation rate. A comparison of the results of Runs V, VIII, and XI with those of VI, IX, and XIII showed the advantage of pumping from high ground rather than from depressed areas in the initial phase of the dewatering process. At the present time, the high areas contribute ground water flow to the low areas 313



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Table A. 1.1-Contnued HYDERABAD Method Jan. Feb. March April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Annual 1. Kobler (H-W-W) 3.70 4.51 7.00 8.97 10.71 9.50 7.70 7.30 7.67 7.11 5.01 3.85 83.03 2. Kohler (Brunt) 3.25 3.68 5.83 7.95 9.86 8.32 6.56 6.21 6.83 6.53 4.29 3.28 72.59 3. Penman 2.14 2.54 4.71 6.32 9.42 8.95 7.56 7.07 6.17 5.06 2.65 2.06 64.65 4. Thornthwaite 61.0 5. Rohwer 4.54 4.45 8.53 11.84 16.51 15.59 13.21 10.23 9.14 8.20 5.94 4.93 113.11 Recommended 3.1 3.7 5.8 7.6 9.3 8.4 7.0 6.5 6.5 5.6 4.0 2.9 70.4 KARACHI 1. Kohler (H-W-W) 3.78 4.08 5.61 6.56 7.01 5.65 4.32 3.90 4.86 5.40 4.37 3.69 59.23 2. Kohler (Brunt) 3.04 3.20 4.55 5.39 5.88 4.69 3.38 3.10 3.90 4.70 3.69 3.04 48.56 3. Penman 2.25 2.49 4.27 5.21 6.70 5.76 4.54 4.19 4.16 4.36 2.68 2.18 48.79 4. Thornthwaite 57.0 5. Rohwer 5.83 5.61 6.32 5.44 5.67 6.55 6.12 4.71 4.88 6.62 6.15 6.34 70.74 Recommended 3.1 3.3 4.6 5.4 6.2 5.2 4.0 3.7 3.9 4.4 3.2 2.8 49.8 BAHAWALPUR 1. Kohler (H-W-W) 2.39 3.16 5.60 7.31 9.89 9.68 8.32 7.64 7.33 5.90 3.60 2.42 73.24 2. Kohler (Brunt) 1.90 2.51 4.70 6.32 8.98 8.77 7.42 6.83 6.75 5.41 3.14 2.03 64.76 3. Penman 1.26 1.83 3.80 5.02 7.84 8.47 7.84 7.17 5.69 4.04 1.85 1.23 56.04 4. Thornthwaite 57.0 5. Rohwer Recommended 1.9 2.6 4.6 6.1 8.5 8.3 7.5 6.8 6.2 4.8 2.7 2.0 62.0 KHANPUR 1. Kohler (H-W-W) 3.01 3.56 5.81 8.25 10.64 10.35 9.01 8.06 8.00 6.60 4.27 3.03 80.59 2. Kohler (Brunt) 2.51 2.92 4.93 7.19 9.88 9.41 8.12 7.24 7.41 6.16 3.84 2.61 72.22 3. Penman 1.64 2.12 4.08 5.56 8.80 9.31 8.56 7.64 6.17 4.45 2.21 1.60 62.14 4. Thornthwaite 58.5 5. Rohwer Recommended 2.5 2.9 4.8 6.9 9.2 9.0 8.2 7.2 6.8 5.5 3.4 2.3 68.7 NOTE: Methods 1. 2 and 3 based on averages for period 1881-1940 except Bahawalpur and Khanpur which are 1926-1940. 412



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Summary canals, and rain) can be recovered if an adequate network of tubewells is constructed. In addition, we recommend mining of the underground water during the first thrity ypw&s after installation of the tubewells, at a rate (including both fresh and salt Water) of 22 million acre feet of year. The firm amount of irrigation water available for consumptive use by crops and soil salinity control in the Former Punjab and Former Bahawalpur will be 59 million acre feet, more than double the present amount. Average effective rainfall will add another 7 million acre feet. If 16.4 million acres is irrigated, the depth of irrigation water per acre will be slightly more than 3.5 feet and the total water supply about 3.9 feet. By taking advantage of the comparatively low rate of evapotranspiration and the relatively high rainfall in the northernmost part of the Plain, the area of intensively cultivated land could be increased beyond 16.4 million acres, perhaps by one to two million acres. A detailed description of the water budget is given in Chapter 7. As shown in that chapter, mining of the underground water increases the cost of average tubewell water by more than 40 percent. But without mining, only abo ut 11.6 million acres can be irrigated fully, a 40 percent smaller area than would be possible with mining. The net benefits, discounted to the present time, from the additional irrigated area more than offset the additional water costs. Underneath perhaps 7 million acres in the Former Punjab and Former Bahawalpur the underground water is salty even at shallow depths. In much of this area a thin layer of fresh water, accumulated from canal and water course leakage, overlies the salt. Some of this water can be recovered, without much mixing with salt water, by constructing many small, shallow, closely spaced, large -diameter wells, which penetrate part way to the boundary between the fresh and the salt water. We estimate that the total recharge of fresh water in the saline areas will be about 4.7 million acre feet per year. Substantially all of this can be recovered, either by the skimming wells just described, or by tube wells pumping a mixture of fresh and salt water. In order to mine the fresh underground water without allowing the salt water to spread into the fresh areas, the level of the salt water will also have to be lowered by pumping from tubewells. Some of this pumped salt water (our estimate is 1.7 million acre feet per year) can be used for irrigation by mixing it with canal water (it will, of course, already be mixed with fresh recharge water). But about 1 million acre feet per year 13



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BOUNDARY TYPE AL A. IMPERVIOUS B. CONSTANT FLUX C. CONSTANT HEAD DROP AL NOTES I. A WELL MAY BE LOCATED IN ANY SQUARE 2. IF WELL LOCATIONS ARE AXIALLY AND DIAMETRICALLY SYMMETRIC, ONLY THE BOUNDED AREA (UPPER LEFT) NEED BE RECORDED 3. AQUIFER THICKNESS, TRANSMISSIBILITY, POROSITY, AND INITIAL HEAD MAY BE DIFFERENT IN EACH SQUARE 4. SQUARES ARE NUMBERED IN USUAL MATRIX NOTATION, (1,1)(1,2).., (l),..(5,5) FIGURE 7.21



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Chapter 6 facilities in rural areas currently limits the amount that can be produced for sale. With improvements in milk yield per animal and a sufficient concentration of milk animals (approximately 6,000 to 10,000 head) a milk drying plant could be established in outlying areas.(19) This dried milk could be an important, source of animal protein, and the cost of transportation of the finished product would be much lower than for whole milk. Cost of milk production should be relatively low in rural areas, owing in part to the grazing lands available in the country. At an estimated cost of Rs 3 per cow per day, an animal producing 5000 lbs of milk per year (2.5 to 3 times present average production per cow in the Indus Plain but relatively low compared with per animal milk production in Western countries) would return approximately Rs 400 above the Rs 1100 production costs. In short, these and other diversification alternatives offer considerable potential as a means of improving and increasing agricultural output. (19) In the United States a roller-process, milk-drying plant can operate efficiently with a daily supply of 160,000 lbs of milk. Profitable operation has been possible with half of this supply. At an average production of fourteen pounds of milk per day per cow (2.5 to 3 times present production per cow in the usual Pakistan herd, where a high proportion of the cows are dry), a herd of approximately 5,800 cows would be necessary to supply such a plant. The milk used would not have to be produced under rigid sanitary conditions because the heat in processing kills bacteria. The product does not have to be kept under refrigeration, will not deteriorate in quality when stored for long periods of time, can be packaged in paper, and can be transported cheaply. The food value of dried skim 1 iilk is very high in elements lacking in the Pakistan diet. Owing to a slight superiority in taste quality and in plant efficiency for larger. scale operations, most milk processing plants in the United States are shifting to spray-process equipment. For these reasons, there is available in the United States a considerable quantity of used, but serviceable, roller process equipment at salvage cost. Thus, it would be possible to introduce milk drying plants in Pakistan at a relatively low cost in foreign exchange. 248



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Chapter 7 1. The average annual flow from the three western rivers is 138 million acre feet per year (maf/yr) (See Table 7.1). We estimate 2 maf/yr will be diverted to Kashmir upon completion of construction of diversion works. The total flow to West Pakistan therefore will be 136 maf/yr. 2. The average total diversion at the canal headgates on the three western rivers will be 92 maf/yr. This includes 11.7 maf/yr additional flow grained with the construction of Mangla and Tarbela Dams above the level of 80 maf/yr that can be obtained with the new barrages and link canal of the Indus Settlement Plan. Of this increase, 10.5 maf/yr will be carried in link canals to the Sutlej canal systems, and 1.2 maf/yr to the Central Bari Doab Canal. 3. The total average annual diversion will be divided as follows: to the Former Punjab and Bahawalpur regions, 48 maf/yr; and to the Former Sind, 44 maf/yr. However, for reasons stated previously, the water balance for the northern plain is based on the "firm" diversion of 45 maf/yr rather than upon the average. 4. Net river losses for the entire system will average 11.5 maf/yr. In addition to these there will be 6.6 maf/yr of losses associated with new structures built under the Settlement Plan. These quantities represent the sum of evapotranspiration losses and seepage losses from the rivers and reservoirs and distribution works of the Settlement Plan minus the inflow to the rivers below the irrigation rim. Part of the losses to the ground water are recovered by pumping [See Items B2 (b) and B2 (d)]. 5. The average annual loss to the sea will be 25.9 maf/yr (136 -92 -11.5 -6.6 = 25.9). B. In the water balance in the Former Punjab and Bahawalpur with tubewells in operation, the following predications are made: 1. The total river water diversion to the canal system of 45 maf/yr will be divided into the following components: (a) Loss in non-beneficial transpiration and evaporation, 6.8 maf/yr. (b) Leakage loss in canals and branches, 13.9 maf/yr. [It is pertinent to remark in substantiating this figure that it is consonant (i) with the product of 270



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Appendix A. 8 Category and Type of PriProject No. Study No.1 ority* Description III. Economic and social research Project 14 (continued) SS 1 (6) Needs for subsistence versus A cash crops ('7) Uncertainty of crop yields b. Integrated effects of economic and other constraints determining cropping patterns c. Development of methods for recording changes in (1) Yields per acre: e.g. crop cutting (2) Total production of various crops (3) Variability of yields (4) Farm, village, and market prices (5) Farm operating costs Project 15 A 1 Methods of introducing innovations E in farm practices a. Review and analysis of experience in introducing agricultural innovations in India, East Pakistan, Egypt, Japan and other less developed countries as a basis for: b. Design and initiation of comparative experiments in pricect areas (e.g. SCARP 1) to test effectiveness for innovation of See footnotes at end of table. 448



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FOREWORD This report is a considerably modified final version of a draft submitted in September 1962. The modifications reflept, in part, comments received from many knowledgeable persons, particularly in West Pakistan, and, in part, increases in our own understanding. Although this final version is as complete and accurate as we can make it, it should, nevertheless, be considered as only one step in the continuing process of thought and action that is required to fulfill the great potentialities of the Indus Plain. No group of citizens of one nation, no matter how grave their interest and con-cern, can learn enough about the internal affairs of another to do more than advance partial answers to its problems. This is particularly true when the problems are as complex and the country as large as is the case in Pakistan. We are convinced that agriculture in the Indus Plain can be lifted off the subsistence level and set on the road to a rapid, large, and continuing increase in productivity, which could transform the entire economic life of West Pakistan. However, such a transformation will require an integrated, determined, and sustained attack of unprecedented scale upon the principal causes of low agricultural productivity. Marshalling of the necessary capital required for the physical construction, including foreign exchange, is essential. The creation of an effective, well-staffed, skilled administration is equally necessary. In particular, success will depend on establishing strong determination in officials and workers at all levels, and on building strong motivation in the farmers more rapidly than has been heretofore achieved. Our report contains rather detailed recommendations concerning the meas ures that must be taken to accomplish this great undertaking, but we have only ventured suggestions as to how these measures shall be carried out. We believe it would be presumptuous on our part to do otherwise; the challenge and the opportunity can only rest with the Government and the people of Pakistan. The task will require that they make difficult phoices and heroic efforts. Other countries can help in various ways, but the decisions and the impetus must come from within Pakistan. All members of the Panel contributed information and ideas to the report, and wrote draft chapters or chapter sections related to their special fields of interest. This final version, however, was worked out by a sub -committee of the Panel, consisting of Messrs. Burden, Dorfman, Falcon, Thomas, and Revelle, and they accept responsibility for it. The report could not have been completed without the devoted work of many persons who were not members of the Panel. A few of those who deserve



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Chapter 1 The United Nations estimates a slightly higher current birth rate for Pakistan than for India, but the birth rates in some other countries of the Far East, notably the Philippines and Thailand are apparently higher still, approaching fifty per thousand. In other Asiatic countries such as Taiwan and Malaya, birth rates are somewhat lower than in West Pakistan, but mortalities are much lower, less than ten per thousand, with the result that the annual rate of increase is over three percent. Several large countries in South America and Africa, including Brazil, Mexico, and Egypt, have rates of annual increase between three and four percent. It is conceivable that, with better health and more adequate nutrition, the annual birth rate in West Pakistan could rise to close to fifty per thousand, while the mortality could rapidly decline. The annual rate of population increase might then grow to more than three percent, or a doubling of population size in less than twenty three years. Age Distribution Because of high fertility West Pakistan is a country of young people. More than two out of five of its citizens (42.4 percent) are less than fifteen years old, and only one out of fifteen (6.9 percent) has reached the age of sixty. Density of Population and Rate of Increase in Different Regions Table 1.4 shows the distribution of population and the increase from 1951 to 1961 in different Districts and regions of West Pakistan. In the canal-irrigated portions of the Former Punjab, the increase of population was twenty-five percent between 1951 and 1961, slightly less than the increase for the Province as a whole. Because of immigration, the populations of Former Bahawalpur and the Former Sind increased more rapidly than that of the entire Province, while the poorly productive, mostly unirrigated districts in the northern part of the Former Punjab and the Former Northwest Frontier, though increasing significantly, nevertheless lagged considerably behind the rest of the country. Mianwali and D. G. Khan, in which canal irrigation is being rapidly extended, has high rates of population growth. The growth of Rawalpindi was primarily urban. In both the Indus Plain and the sub -montane area to the north, cultivated land (land actually planted each year) averages little more than one acre for each person in the rural population. The man-land ratio is highest in the settled and comparatively productive canal-irrigated areas of the Former Punjab, and smallest in Former Sind and Former Bahawalpur, where irrigation development is occurring. 37



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Chapter 5 from year to year in a particular district fluctuate more than 20 percent, and this will bring about a considerably larger fluctuation in the net benefits to the farmers. In preparing Table 5.9, we have assumed a cost of Rs 0.475 (ten cents) per pound of nitrogen. If the actual cost of about Rs 0.667 (fourteen cents) per pound prevailing during the five years from 1955 to 1960 is used, the total cost of fertilizer increases from Rs 118 million to Rs 166 million, and the net increase in value becomes Rs 178 million, or only 13.5 percent. The cost per fertilized acre increases from 16 to 23 rupees. Experience from 1955 to 1957 showed that the use of fertilizer rose steadily as long as the subsidized cost to the farmer did not exceed Rs 13 per fertilized acre Table (2.4. 1). It declined in 19 58-59 when the farmer's cost rose to Rs 18 because of the reduction in the subsidy. Using the yield increases from nitrogen application and the crop prices given in Table 5.9, and assuming that the amounts of nitrogen applied to different crops were about the same as in the table, we can compute approximately the increases in value that should ,have been attained on fertilized lands during these years. In 1957-58, when 894 thousand acres were fertilized, the added gross value is Rs 75 million. In 19 5859, it was Rs 56 million on 656 thousand acres. In both years the computed average benefit-to-cost ratio is 2.8, about the same as the ratio we have calculated for the five canal-irrigated districts of Table 5.9. But the benefit-to-cost ratios for the farmers were much higher, owing to the government subsidyaveraging 6.6 in 1957-58 and 4.6 in 1958-59. Evidently the value in 1958-59 is close to the minimum that the farmers will accept under present conditions. Aside from the lack of convincing demonstrations of the gains attainable from chemical fertilizers, and the presently limited availability of supplies at convenient times and places, the farmers face several real difficulties in expanding their uses of these materials: 1. Lack of cash or credit on fair terms to allow purchase of fertilizers. 2. The share-cropping system in which a fixed percentage of the crop goes to the land owner, while the tenant bears production costs, including cost of fertilizer. In the case of wheat, for example, if half the increased yield from fertilizer goes to the land owner, the tenant will realize, on the average,, only 7 rupees net per acre on a 14 rupee investment, and will lose money in poor years. The government subsidy of fertilizer cost partly ameliorates this difficulty. It is, in effect, a tax on land owners in lieu of their sharing the cost of fertilizers. 197



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Chapter 1 rate of several hundred thousand acres a year. During any particular year of the last decade, about 22 percent of the cultivated area lay fallow, while 9 percent of the remainder was double cropped. Consequently, the gross area sown to either a Kharif or a Rabi crop averaged 85.5 percent of the cultivated area. Out of the average of 29.6 million acres sown to a crop each year, 21.2 million, or 71 percent, were irrigated by perennial and non-perennial canals. Probably at least 2 million more acres were irrigated with water from Persian Wells. There are marked differences between different regions. In the nine long-settled, largely canal-irrigated Districts of the Former Punjab, (14) only about 13 percent of the total area of nearly 22 million acres is not considered culturable. This proportion varies from less than 9 percent in Lyallpur in the center of Rechna Doab, to 18 percent in Muzaffargarh, which contains a considerable proportion of the rough and sandy lands of the Thal Desert. In Muzaffargarh, only 29 percent of the land designated as culturable is actually cultivated. In Lahore and Lyallpur, on the other hand, all but about 14 to 15 percent of the culturable land is cultivated. The proportion of culturable but not cultivated land in other Districts of Chaj, Rechna, and Bari Doabs is somewhat higher, varying from 19 percent of the total culturable area in Montgomery to 30 percent in Sheikhupura, and to 38 percent in Jhang. Like Muzaffargarh District, part of Jhang lies in the Thal Desert. Sheikhupura has the highest percentage of waterlogged and saline land of any of the Punjab District. Approximately 12 percent of the cultivated area in the 9 Districts lay fallow, and an almost equal amount was double cropped; hence the gross sown area and the cultivated area were nearly the same during any particular year. Eighty-seven percent of the cultivated area was canal-irrigated, and about 10 percent received Persian Well irrigation. The Gujrat District, in the northern part of Chaj Doab, receives canal irrigation over a much smaller proportion of the gross sown area (less than 45 percent). In this District and in Sialkot, which lies just to the east in Rechna Doab, the percentage of fallow land, and of culturable but not cultivated land, is small, and the cropping intensity is high. On the average, 25 percent of the gross sown area in these two Districts is irrigated with Persian Wells, about the same as the canal-irrigated area. (14) These are: Lahore, Montgomery, and Multan in Bari Doab; Guhranwala, Sheikhupura, and Lyallpur in Rechna Doab; Shahpur in Chaj Doab; Muzaffargarh in Lower Thal Doab; and Jhang, which lies partly in Rechna and partly in Chaj and Thal Doabs. 44



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Chapter 4 The Project Director In the light of this inventory of principal project activities and relationships, two controlling considerations emerge in shaping a suitable organization for the project. First, -at the project level the project director should have complete control of the personnel directly identified with water management and agricultural production. For other functions or services, there should be firm working agreements. The Policymaking Board The second general conclusion is that there should be in the provincial capital a Board having high prestige which is representative of principal interested agencies. The responsibility of this Board would be broad policy formulation and general supervision of successive project areas. These, then, are the guidelines for our recommendations. In a sense they serve as building blocks for a project organization. Recommendations on Organization And Management In the provincial institutional setting, we have been able to identify three agencies with broad powers to deal with water management, including the use of, tubewells and land reclamation as related lio agricultural pr'oduction. WAPDA has this authority but in a much broader framework of multipurpose planning and construction. There is agreement that this agency is fully occupied at the present with a tremendous construction program for water and power development. The Agricultural Development Corporation has full powers for project water management, reclamation, and agricultural production. It also has authority to provide a wide range of agricultural services. Here, too, there is a governmental conclusion that this Agency is fully occupied, and should continue to concentrate on agricultural supply services and its several colonization schemes. The third agency is the Soil Reclamation Board. This agency organized in 1952, symbolizes the early awareness by the government of the problem of waterlogging and salinity, and its sustained effort to find a solution. The Board has had ten years of combat experience. It has had a program of 179



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Wischmeier, Walter H., Cropping-management factor evaluations for a universal soil-loss equation: Soil Science Society of America, Proceedings, 24 (4), p. 322-326, July-August, 1960. Wiseman, John D. H., and Sewell, R. B. Seymour, The floor of the Arabian Sea: Geological Magazine, v. 74, 1937. Zeschke, G., Bergbau und Erzlagger statten Pakistans: Erzmetall, v. 12, 1959. -----Transportation of uraninite in the Indus River, Pakistan: Trans. Geol. Soc. South Africa, v. 63, 1961. Zobairi, A. R. K., Manuring of fish ponds: Dacca, East Pakistan Govt. Press, 14 p., Reprinted from Agriculture Pakistan, 10 (1), 1960. 407



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ation observations are now being made at four stations and that sunshine recorders were installed at twelve stations. These data, even for 1 or 2 years, would lend considerable confidence to the estimated values of potential evapotranspiration. LEGEND Method 1 -Evaporation computed from the meteorological factors of air temperature, dew point, wind movement, and solar radiation as described in Weather Bureau Research Paper No. 38, "Evaporation from Pans and Lakes", by Kohler, Nordenson and Fox. Solar radiation estimated using relation shown in paper "Insolation as an Empirical Function of Daily Sunshine Duration", by Hamon, Weiss, and Wilson. (Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 82, No. 6, pp. 141-146, June 1954.) Method 2 -Evaporation computed in same way as Method 1. Solar radiation estimated using Brunt's equation Rc = RA (0.18 / 0,55n) N where Rc = Short-wave radiation from sun and sky RA u Short-wave radiation for completely transparent atmosphere n= Ratio of actual/possible hours of sunshine. Method 3 -Evaporation computed using Penman's original equation as described in Netherlands Journal of Agricultural Science, Vol. 4, No. 1, Feb. 1956, and other papers. Method 4 -Thornthwaite values of potential evapotranspiration were obtained from a map contained in report "Precipitations, Evapotranspiration Et Aridite En Pakistan Occidental", by Mohammad Shafi Ahmad. (No. 1, Travaux du Laboratoire de Climatologic de la Faculte des Lettres, Universite de Rennes, 1958.) Method 5 -Evaporation values computed by Rohwer's equation were obtained from paper "Evaporation in India Calculated from Other Meteorological Factors", by P. K. Raman, published in Scientific Notes, India Meteorological Department, Vol. VI, No. 61, 1935. The 409



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Chapter 3 of groundwater depth and of power consumption are all necessary to the long term development. The size and complexity of the project may ultimately justify the design of automatic equipment for recording and transmission of data to regional headquarters for automatic processing. However, this should not be a requirement in the beginning. Supervisory staff and supporting personnel will be required. We estimate the number as 25. The figures are shown in Table 3.3 in the over-all estimate of personnel needed for each million-acre Project. The breakdown in Table 3.3 was made functionally to give the order of magnitude of personnel required, rather than in accordance with the organizational pattern outlined in Chapter 4, in which functions are combined in administratively practical units. Fertilizer Most of the soils in the irrigated areas of the Indus Plain have been cropped for many years without returning nutrients to the soil. Consequently, given an adequate amount of irrigation water, the addition of nitrogen and phosphorous to the soil can produce large increases in crop, yields. Detials of experiment station tests and field trials on farms are summarized in Chapter 2. Estimates of economic benefits from the use of chemical fertilizers are given in Chapter 5. Widespread use of chemical fertilizers, together with sufficient water and improved plant varieties, is essential to the establishment of modern agriculture in West Pakistan. Between 40 and 50 million pounds of nitrogen fertilizer will be needed for each million-acre project. According to our estimates, it is economical to provide fertilizer plant capacity in West Pakistan, rather than to rely on imports. Furthermore, we believe it would be economically sound to locate plants producing the required amount of nitrogen for one to four million-acre projects in cities near the project areas. In this way, use of natural gas for power and as a source of raw material for nitrogen fertilizers could be combined with other projected uses of gas, while at the same time the intrinsically economic pipeline method of transportation could be fully utilized. Present plans call for an extension of the present main pipeline through the Former Punjab; this should give easy access to many of the projected million-acre areas. In an emerging area such as West Pakistan, where large reserves of natural gas exist, economics of adminstration and maintenance can be secured by bulk shipment of raw material -in this case, gas. Once installed, a pipeline operates with a minimum of supervision, independent 145



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Table A.5.1---Continued M S X Canal (mds/ac) (inches) (inches) 55-56 56-57 57-58 55-56 56-57 57-58 Cotton (American) Central Bari Doab 6.7 6.6* 36.7 28.1 Lower Bari Doab 9.0 8.5 40.4 29.4 39.8 Upper Chenab 8.2 ** 36.9 23.6 ** Lower Chenab 7.3 7.8 38.3 31.6 24.8 Upper Jhelum 7.2 7.2* 35.9 33.5 Lower Jhelum 6.8 7.8 40.7 36.2 29.4 Pakpattan 7.8* 8.0 40.5 37.3 Dipalpur 8.1* 8.5* 39.7 * Mailsi 7.2* 7.2* 40.5 * Haveli 7.5 7.5 40.5 32.0 31.6 Rangpur 4.8* 5.1* 40.0 * Wheat Central Bari Doab 9.7 9.7* 9.7* 13.6 13.2 * Lower Bari Doab 11.1* 11.3* 10.9* 15.0 * Upper Chenab 11.3 11.0* 10.6* 13.1 11.1 * Lower Chenab 12.4 12.2* 12.2* 14.1 12.5 * Upper Jhelum 10.9* 10.9* 10.9* 12.5 * Lower Jhelum 10.9* 10.8* 10.5* 14.7 * Pakpattan 11.6 11.7* 11.4 15.0 12.7 14.6 Dipalpur ** 11.4 ** 14.6 ** 11.2 ** Mailsi ** 12.5 ** 15.0 ** 12.8 ** Haveli 11.6 11.9* 12.0* 15.0 14.1 * Rangpur ** 9.6* 9.3* 14.7 ** * Barley Central Bari Doab 8.8 8.8* 8.3* 13.6 13.0 * Lower Bari Doab 8.0* 8.0* 8.2* 15.0 * Upper Chenab 9.6 9.2* 8.7* 13.1 9.3 * Lower Chenab 10.1 10.7* 9.8* 14.1 11.3 * Upper Jhelum 10.9* 10.4* 10.4* 12.5 * Lower Jhelum 10.5* 9.5* 9.0* 14.7 * Pakpattan 9.1 8.4* 8.6 15.0 11.4 14.3 Dipalpur ** 9.2 ** 14.6 ** 9.4 ** Mailsi ** 9.6 ** 15.0 ** 11.7 ** Haveli 9.0 8.9* 7.9* 15.0 13.5 * Rangpur ** 7.0* 7.2* 14.7 ** * See footnotes at end of table. 432



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Appendix A.8 Category and Type of Pri(,Pr oje ct No. Study No.4 or Description Project 15 A 1 (1) Farm planning E (2) Leading farmers in each village (3) Demonstration farms (4) Village extension (5) Local organizations such as union councils (6) Various kinds of economic and social motivation (7) Other possible methods c. Evaluation of requirements for "front line" workers (1) Numbers (2) Level of education (3) Pay and allowances (4) Techniques of in-service training (5) Peace Corps participation d. Evaluation of requirements for technical specialists in project areas (1) Numbers (2) Level of education See footnotes at end of table. 4 449



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Chapter 1 0.7 million acres as non-saline to moderately saline (soil salt content less than 0.4 percent), 0.7 million acres as saline (0.4 to 1.0 percent salt), and 0.6 million acres as ultra-saline (more than 1 percent salt). The latter may not be economically reclaimable because of sodium damage. Reclamation of the 0.7 million saline acres is probably economically feasible, though costly and difficult. In any case, drainage is essential if the 0.7 million acres of relatively good land are to be protected from further salt accumulation. (34) On the left bank of the Indus, east and north of Hyderabad, lies the major, part of Former Sind," covering some 7.5 million acres and containing about 4.3 million acres of canal-irrigated land. Severe salinity and waterlogging are confined to two tracts. One of these lies between the Rohri and the East and West Khaipur Feeder Canals, in the northern part of the former Khairpur State. With a culturable commanded area of some 650,000 acres, and a canal-irrigated cultivated area of 575,000 acres in Former Khairpur, saline and very saline soils (more than 0.5 percent salt) now cover 140,000 acres in the northern area. Under 76,000 acres, the water table lies within 3.3 feet of the surface, and within 7 feet of the surface under 340,000 acres. The water is slowly rising throughout the tract, except where it already lies within 3 to 4 feet of the surface. There are extensive areas of saline waste, and some onceproductive land has been abandoned. The Khipro Plain, lying next to the Thar Desert, some 75 to 100 miles east of Hyderabad, contains 500,000 to 700,000 recently cultivated acres of problem lands. Although no detailed surveys have been made, salinity and waterlogging have apparently worsened in recent years to the point where crop yields have diminished, and much land has been abandoned. Water stands throughout the year in depressions and within 2 to 4 feet of the surface in all low-lying areas. In both upper and central Former Sind, waterlogging is apparently caused primarily by the percolation of surplus irrigation water from the fields, rather than by canal leakage. It is aggravated by excessively poor drainage, resulting from the flatness of the land and the small differences (34) TGaja Detailed Planning Report: Sukkur-Gudu-Ghulam Mohammed Drainage and Salinity Control Projects, Report No. 9"; Hunting Technical Services-Sir M. MacDonald and Partners; London 1962. 61



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2 The advisory task performed by Dr. Revelle and his colleagues on the Panel has been complex and rather lengthy. It has required the pooling of knowledge from many diverse fields and disciplines, visits to Pakistan by members of the Panel, consultations and other exchanges of views with Pakistani experts and officials, and a pioneering effort in the application of computer technology to a problem of this kind. The result is a blueprint, boldly designed not only to avert the creeping dangers of waterlogging and salinity in the Indus Plain, but to move forward to a substantial increase in agricultural productivity serving the interest of all Pakistan. As the design unfolded in the minds of the American experts, Pakistani authorities were themselves proceeding with their plans and operations for reclamation in the Indus Plain. Theory, expert advice, and practice have already thus become interwoven in a matrix hard to disentangle. How far the Pakistan authorities will be able to implement the findings of the report can only be determined by the responsible authorities in Pakistan itself. In any event, the conclusions of the report and the methodology employed represent a pioneering effort in the application of science and technology to the challenging problems of development. We hope that the techniques



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Table 2.9 Interaction between Irrigation Water and Fertilizer or Soil Fertility Marquis Wheat (Control = 480 lbs/acre) Alberta, Canada Water Supply Fertility: Low Medium High Yield Increase over Control feet/acre(1) lbs/acre lbs/acre lbs/acre 0.45 * 120 25 720 150 0.75 600 128 1,140 238 2,700 563 1.17 1,140 238 1,800 375 3,360 700 1.40 1,440 300 2,220 463 3,600 760 1.75 1,500 320 2,400 500 3,840 800 Concho Winter Wheat (Control = 1,010 lbs/acre) Bushland, Texas Lbs N/acre: 0 80 120 Irrigation IntensityCbT M * 80 8 40 4 M4 1,010 100 1,650 163 2,130 211 Banner Oats (Control = 1,370 lbs/acre) Alberta, Canada feet/acre() Fertility: Low Medium High 0.45 -1,210 -88 -730 -53 -410 -30 0.75 * 160 12 800 58 1.17 480 35 1,060 77 2,020 147 1.40 770 56 1,510 110 2,530 186 1.75 930 68 1,630 119 2,730 199 Grain Sorghum, hybrid variety Rs 610 (Control = 2, 980 lbs/acre) Bushland, Texas Lbs N/acre: 0 120 240 Irrigation Intensity(3) M1 * -350 -12 -550 -18 M4 460 15 3,980 133 4,250 142 Seed Cotton, variety Alcala 44 (Control = 1, 320 lbs/acre) Yuma, Arizona Lbs N/acre:(5) 60 150 375 Irrigation Intensity(4) Dry * 330 25 690 52 Medium -60 -5 480 36 1,010 76 Wet 70 5 430 33 1,350 102 S= Control (1) Average rainfall during growing season = 0.4 feet. (2) M1 u Preplanting irrigation only. M4 = Preplanting irrigation plus two subsequent irrigations to keep integrated moisture tension in root zone above 4 bars. 126



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Chapter 7 represent conditions in a typical project area, and to estimate the over-all pumping requirements. However, because of the decrease in potential recharge capacity from the upper to the lower ends of the doabs. more tubewells will be needed in the northern zones of the Former Punjab than in the southern part and in Bahawalpur. To compensate for this, canal revamping will be required to increase diversion of surface water to the downstream regions. In low-lying regions, the depth of the water table at present is only two or three feet, and in old river traces and other depressed areas open water stands on the surface. The high evaporation from these areas dissipates a large amount of water and leaves large residues of dissolved minerals. Adjacent higher lands have lower evaporation rates, and a ground water flow from the high to low areas is induced which prevents the former from becoming waterlogged. The ground water rise in three observation wells in Rechna Doab is illustrated in Figure 7.2. The inference that most of the water which caused the historic rise in the water table came from the canal system is reached through a process of elimination. Infiltration from the rivers must have been small because of the low underground hydraulic gradients in their vicinity and because of the character of the soil under the rivers. Water applied to land, either by irrigation or precipitation, was mostly lost through evapotranspiration, and never reached the water table except in those relatively small areas where the ground water stood close to the surface. It may be inferred therefore that the distribution system constituted the major source of recharge. This inference is supported by many water -balance measure ments on the canal system made during the last thirty years. The reticulate distribution system is made up of many sizes of channels. In flowing to the fields the water passes through main canals, branches, distributaries, minors, water courses, and finally to the farm ditphes. The larger channels carry water during all but a few weeks of the year. The length of this system is very great, being measured in thousands of miles in the Former Punjab alone. The determination of the leakage rate from the canal system by summation of unit losses is imprecise. This rate can best be estimated by a calculation based on the rate of rise of the water table. In Rechna and Chaj Doabs,, well records show that until the water table rose to within about 10 feet of the land surface the rate of rise was as much as 1.5 to 1.7 feet per year. In other regions, including Bahawalpur, the rise was less rapid. 262



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Summary p ound of nitrogen. If all this fertilizer were produced from natural gas in West Pakistan, the yearly gas consumption would be 30 billion cubic fe -et. At this rate, estimated recoverable reserves from the §ui field -alone would last for nearly two centuries. Because of the large reserves of natural gas, it should be economically practical to produce all required nitrogen fertilizer in West Pakistan. By the end of the Second Five Year Plan in 1964-65, nitrogen fertilizer plant capacity will be about 75,000 tons a year. Capital costs of the plants needed to produce another 550,000 tons should be around $200 mil-lion (Rs 960 million). These costs are included in the capital costs listed above. To minimize fertilizer transportation costs, the new plants should probably be built near the gas pine lines running through the agricultural development areas. In the long run, it should prove cheaper to transmit natural" gas by pipe line than fertilizer by rail or truck. The lowest transportation costs for phosphate fertilizer, on the other hand, would be achieved by producing triple superphosphate from imported raw materials at Karachi, and shipping the fertilizer up country. About 160,000 tons Of P205 will ultimately be needed at an annual cost of around $30 million (Rs 140 million). The Water Budget After completion of the Indus Basin Settlement works, an average of 136 million acre feet of river water will be available to West Pakistan. Provided that additional surface storage, can be developed economically, we estimate that an average of 92 million acre feet per year can be diverted into irrigation canals-about 18 million acre feet above the diversions during the 1950's. Surface storage is essential for this increase in diversion because of the highly seasonal character of the rivers. Around 60 million acre feet of the river flow occurs during only two months, July and August. An average of 48 million acre feet from the total canal diversions would go to the Former Punjab and Former Bahawalpur, and 44 million acre feet to Former Sind; of the remaining river water, 18 million acre feet would be lost by evaporation and seepage from the rivers and from the link canals and other Indus settlement works; 26 million acre feet would flow into the Arabian Sea. Part of the river and link canal losses could be recovered by pumping. A considerable fraction (estimated at 14 million acre feet) of the canal diversions in the Former Punjab and Former Bahawalpur will seep into the underground aquifer; practically all of this (plus an additional 6 million acre feet of recharge from rivers, link 12



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Chapter 7 Table 7.4 Cosg Analysis of Tubewell Systems (Dollars per net cultivated acre) Rate of Pumping Recover Recharge Recover Recharge and Mining only Capital Annual Capital Annual Cost Cost Cost Cost M&O &O 1. Capital Cost of Well & 41 19.9 :l Appurtenances Including Electrification(Transmission line_ substations. etc.)._ 2. Capital Costs of Drainage System (return flows & floods) 55 3. Capital Costs of Salt Export System: Wells for pumping salt water plus conveyance channels ... ......... 6.6 0 4. Capital Costs of Transporting 9.1 10.6 pumped water or its equivalent (canal enlargement plus channels for pumDing into canals) Total 61.7 35,5 5. Operation & Maintenance for Wells 0.83 L 0.45 6. Electrical Power Costs 3.77 2.16 7. Operation & Maintenance of 0.08 .08 Drainage System 8. Operation & Maintenance of 0.07 0 Salt Export System 9. Including Power for Salt Wells .05 0 10. Operation & Maintenance Transporting .10 .11 pumped water or its equivalent (canal enlargement plus channels for pumping .into canals) .. .. Total $4.90 $2.80 Discounted Cost of Pumping $51.8 $29.7 (Present value for future power costs Irrigated area, in millions of acres, 16.4 11.6 assuming irrigation depth of 3.5 ft. 335



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Chapter I aquifer from canals, distributaries, and water courses. At the present timeJ, in the Former Punjab, this quantity is less than 10 million acre feet; hence the total area of severely waterlogged land, both cultivated and uncultivated, cannot much exceed about 5 million acres, or 20 percent of the total area of the canal-irrigated Districts in the Punjab. The area of land damaged by salt accumulation can continue to increase, however, to a much higher percentage of both the cultivated and the total area., because evaporation of underground water will deposit salt at the surface even when the water table is below the plant root zone. With the dynamic equilibrium we have just described, the rate of evaporation should remain relatively constant, and several years, or possibly even decades will be required to produce serious salt accumulation and sodium damage over large areas outside the low-lying waterlogged regions. This salt accumulation could be kept partially under control, even w I without increasing the supply of irrigation water, by proper irrigation practices. This would mean a reduction in the total irrigated area so that sufficient water could be supplied to each irrigated area to meet the leaching requirement., described in Chapter The above discussion is not intended to suggest that a vigorous attack should not be made on the problem of waterlogging and salinity. It is meant rather to allay the fear commonly expressed., that West Pakistan agriculture faces an early catastrophe, and to emphasize the need for a broad assault on the many complex and interrelated problems that depress agricultural production in West Pakistan. The problem of waterlogging and salinity is only one of these problems, and it cannot be effectively solved in isolation. The Problem of Agriculture The problem of agriculture in West Pakistan is both a physical and a human one. It is a problem of land, of water., and of people, and of the interactions among them. Many of its facets have been discussed in previous sections of this chapter. They can be summarized under five main headings! 1. High density and rapid growth of population. The 46 million inhabitants of West Pakistan are attempting to grow their food from 35 million acres, about 3/4 of an acre per capita. The cultivated area is increasing at 1.3 percent a year; the population by 2.4 percent. Agricultural production grows, on the average, by 2 percent per year. 64



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Appendix A. 5 A RESPONSE OF AGRICULTURAL YIELDS TO WATER IN THE FORME R PUNJAB By R. Dorfman The tubewell projects planned will increase the annual supply of irrigation water and will increase man's degree of control over the timing of irrigation water supplies. The economic consequences of this improvement were discussed in Chapter 5, where we pointed out that the economic benefits of increased water supply are based on the physiological responses of the plants to additional water. In Chapter 5 we made use of some/estimates of these physiological responses to derive economic forecasts; in this appendix we discuss the derivation of these estimates and summarize available data on present water supplies and crop yields. We need not repeat the discussion in the text to the effect that water supply influences plant growth and crop yields only via its effect on soil moisture content. In a general way the physiological relationship between crop yield and soil moisture content is universally valid; plants follow the same laws of growth in the Former Punjab that they do in Utah. The quantitative relationship, on the other hand, will differ from place to place and time to time in response to many local factors such as seed varieties, methods of cultivation, amount of fertilization, and so on. Besides, the relationship between water supply and soil moisture content varies from locality to locality because of such factors as soil texture and permeability, humidity, timing of rainfall and irrigation, and many others. Therefore quantitative data on the relationship between water supply and crop yields cannot be transported safely from one agricultural environment to another, and it is necessary, in spite of all difficulties, to base estimates on indigenous data. The basic data available for estimating the response of yields to water in the Punjab are the historical series on crop yields, data on diversions into major canals, and series on farm and wholesale crop prices. (1) Data on the yields of major crops by district are available in many sources, for example, Crops, Vegetables and Fruits in Pakistan (Karachi: Ministry of Food and Agriculture, 1959). All are derived from the reports of the revenue patwaris who annually estimate the acreage under each crop (l)The relevance of the price statistics will become evident below. 417



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0 Tz:20,ooc qpj/1 Aczuir-e. THiceoNE-55 -59;oo 5ALINITY OF SALTWNATR2,0=m4311 20 7o 0 I50 040 0 0 PUPNGRT -GLPI I FIUE712rp hwn aiu osbeWl rdcino rs ae Wihu dixueo al aei5



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Bibliography Afzal, M., Trends in the development of statistics in Pakistan; 1931 to 1960: Bureau of Statistics, Lahore, p. 37-46, 1961. Ahmad, Jaleel, Natural resources in low income countries, an analytical survey of socio-economic research: Pittsburgh, University of Pittsburgh Press, 118 p., 1960. Ahmad, Kazi S., Water supply in the Indus Basin and allied problems: Pakistan Geographical Review, v. xiii, no. 1, p. 1-17, 1958. Ahmad, Kazi S., and Abbasi, Anis A., Evolution of drainage in the Indus plain: Pakistan Geographical Review, v. 15, no. 2, p. 38-49, 1960. Ahmad, Kazi S., Reclamation of waterlogged and saline lands in West Pakistan: Pakistan Geographical Review, v. 16, no. 1, p. 1-18, 1961. Ahmad, Nazir, Control of submerged vegetation in fish ponds: Dacca, East Pakistan Govt. Press, 4 p., 1957. Development of fisheries in East Pakistan, presidential address, 9th Pakistan science conference, delivered at Peshawar on 12 March 1957: Lahore, Pakistan Association for the Advancement of Science, 13 p., 1959. Fish markets of East Pakistan and the question of their improvement: Dacca, East Pakistan Govt. Press, It p,, 1959. ----Fish wealth of East Pakistan: Dacca, East Bengal Govt. Press, 25 p., 1955. Hints on fish culture: Lahore, Govt. Print. West Pakistan, 4 p. (West Pakistan Directorate of Fisheries, Pamphlet no. 13) 1961. Malaria and fish: Dacca, East Pakistan Govt. Press, 3 p., 1958. Mortality of fish during transport and cultural operation, causes and prevention: Pakistan Jour. of Sci., 6 (2), p. 102-106, April, 1954. On water-hyacinth and its control in fish ponds: Agriculture Pakistaai, 6 (1), p. 1-4, 1955. Paddy-cum-fish culture: Agriculture Pakistan, 7 (1), p. 1-9, March, 1956. Pond culture in East Pakistan: Agriculture Pakistan, 4 (2), p. 141-142, June, 1953. 376



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Chapter 4 wing, with agricultural workshops which offer a service of equipment for cultivation and clearance, and of tubewells and pumps for water supply. With respect to the use of fertilizer, better seeds, plant protection and soil conservation, the extension service is generally inadequate. There is no extension effort to improve farm irrigation practices. Relatively new on the horizon is the provincial Agricultural Development Corporation (ADC). This is an outgrowth of the appointment of a Food and Agricultural Commission in 1959. In its report, which was comprehensive and penetrating as to the ills and remedies of agriculture, the Commission included recommendations on organization. It sensed a need for an administrative renaissance in agriculture but appeared to despair of achieving such a result in the traditional departments. Therefore, it sought partial solution through the creation of a corporation with broad powers to operate an agricultural supply service and to develop agriculture in project areas. The new agency has a three-member board and two wings. The supply wing concerns itself with fertilizer, seed, pesticides, and farm machinery on a province-wide basis. The project wing has very broad powers to intervene on land ownership, tenant relationships and agricultural practices in proclaimed project areas. In such areas it may absorb the present personnel of the several agricultural directorates. The Corporation has taken over the colonization scheme for Ghulam Mohammed Barrage and looks forward to similar responsibility in the project areas of Thal, Gudu and Taunsa. Local Institutions Two Departments at the provincial level are concerned with local selfgovernment: the Department of Cooperatives, Labour and Welfare, and the Department of Basic Democracies and Loca; Government. The program of Basic Democracies, under the sponsorhip and inspiration of the President himself, seeks to build democratic institutions at the "grass roots" of national life. Starting at the level of villages with a Union Council of elected and appointed members, the structure builds up at Tehsil, District, Division and Provincial levels for purposes of administration or coordination, with special emphasis on development. Increasingly, villagers are being given opportunity to participate in local affairs, and through a system of representation to associate with Provincial officials in the policies and programs of the Province. 175



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Table A.5.1----Continued M S X Canal (rndsac) ches) (inches) (inches) (nhs 55-56 56-57 57-58 55-56 56-57 57-58 Gram Central Bari Doab 8.1 8.1* 8.1* 21.2 19.7 * Lower Bari Doab 7.4* 6.7* 7.0* 23.0 * Upper Chenab 9.7 8.2* 8.2* 20.8 13.4 * Lower Chenab 10.2 9.6* 9.6* 21.8 16.6 * Upper Jhelum 6.7* 6.4* 6.7* 20.2 * Lower Jhelum 7.2* 7.6* 7.7* 22.8 * Pakpattan 8.6 6.8* 7.0 23.0 15.6 21.6 Dipalpur ** 9.7 ** 22.5 ** 11.7 ** Mailsi ** 8.1 ** 23.0 ** 15.1 ** Haveli 7.9 7.1* 7.1* 23.0 19.8 * Rangpur ** 7.0* 7.6* 22.6 ** * Oilseeds Central Bari Doab 4.3 4.4* 4.6* 12.8 12.4 * Lower Bari Doab 6.1* 6.3* 6.3* 13.9 * Upper Chenab 6.3 5.8* 5.8* 12.6 10.5 * Lower Chenab 7.0 6.9* 6.8* 13.2 11.6 * Upper Jhelum 5.6* 5.5* 5.5* 12.2 * Lower Jhelum 5.9* 5.6* 5.4* 14.1 * Pakpattan 6.4 6.4* 6.4 13.9 11.6 13.6 Dipalpur ** 6.2 ** 13.6 ** 10.6 ** Mailsi ** 6.8 ** 13.9 ** 11.5 ** Haveli 6.2 6.5* 6.5* 13.9 13.0 * Rangpur ** 4.8* 4.9* 13.7 ** * *Water supply sufficient to meet saturation requirement. Actual yield is shown under M. **Exceedingly low water supply. No estimate made. 433



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Appendix A.8 Category .and Type of PriProject No. Study No.1/ Description Project 9 E 1 Development, test and evaluation of farm equipment and tools a. Comparative studies of cost, effectiveness and farmers' acceptance of different farm equipments and tools under West Pakistan conditions-plows, barrows, cultivators, hand tools b. Improvements in design based on field studies Project 10 E 1 Development of plant protection measures a. Requirements and mode of application of insecticides and pesticides b. Seed treatment against disease 2 c. Biological control of insect pests d. Surveys of insect pests and plant diseases: fungi, bacteria, viruses Project 11 E 3 Quality control of export crops-dates, mangos, figs, citrus fruits, vegetableA oils, cotton, wool, rice, vegetables, and possibly others Project 12 A 1 Studies of the techniques of soil E reclamation with emphasis on: a. Reclamation of soils containing excess exchangeable sodium b. Effects of the use or presence of high bicarbonate groundwaters. See footnotes at end of table. 446



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Chapter 3 be washed down easily and downward percolation can be maintained. There is a large underground water supply that can be used to supplement canal waters for both leaching the salt and permitting the intensification of agriculture. Throughout the Indus Plain, the river waters are low in salt and of good quality for irrigation. In Former Punjab, the major part of the underground water is also of fair quality, and significant quantities of usable groundwater can be developed in Former Bahawalpur and Former Sind. The farmers are intelligent and educable. In pilot areas in both East and West Pakistan they have demonstrated their willingness to change their traditional ways. Natural gas is available in large quantities to supply power for pumping and fertilizer production, as well as raw materials for manufacture of nitrogen fertilizers. Difficulties and Problems In planning for the future, we must also face many difficulties and problems. Land tenure and farm fragmentation The average size of land holding in West Pakistan is small. According to the First Census of Agriculture held in 1960, based on 6,865 sample villages, the average size of cultivated holding for the Province was 6.8 acres. An earlier sample survey in the Former Punjab carried out in 1949 (Table 3.2) showed that about 80 percent of the proprietors owned less than onethird of the land, while about 0.6 percent of the proprietors owned more than 20 percent. Figures for Former Sind are of the same order of magnitude. Most of the land, whether peasant-owned or leased from the large holders, is farmed in small parcels. This means that even within a single project area, new practices and new materials will need to be transferred to very large numbers of farmers. The enormity of the task is further complicated by the fragmentation or holdings. In 1955, a survey of small holdings in the Former Punjab, made by the Board of Economic Inquiry(l),, showed that more than 50 percent were split into three or four pieces. In some cases, gross holdings of three to four acres were made up of twelve to eighteen pieces. Unfortunately, even these fragmented holdings are generally not contiguous. The same survey indicates that there is a mean distance of from one-quarter to one-half mile between plots. Obviously the task of the farmers is made much more difficult by the pattern of holdings. A parcel of land that was originally farmed by one cultivator is (1) "Survey of Small Holdings in the Punjab; Board of Economic Inquiry; Punjab (Pakistan)"; Publication No. 112; 1955. 133



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Page 7.1 Distribution of Monthly Runoffs of the Indus, Jhelum and Chenab Rivers (1921-1946) ----------------------------------337 7.2 Water Level Fluctuations in Selected Observation Wells in Rechna Doab from 1905 to 1960 -----------------------------338 7.3 Water Budget for First Level of Development: Diversions to Former Punjab and Bahawalpur and to Former Sind -----------339 7.4 Schematic Diagram: Saline Area Problem ---------------------340 7.5 Water Budget for First Level of Development: Former Punjab and Bahawalpur Regions. Surface Distribution, Recovery of Recharge, and Rates of Mining in Saline and Non-Saline Areas ----------------------------------------------------341 7.6 Relationship between the Benefit and Cost Parameters, L, F, and M, and the Optimum Choice of Values for the Decision Variables, Y, Z, and W ------------------------------------342 7.7 Water Budget for the First Level of Development. Former Sind Region: Surface Distribution; Losses to Groundwater and in Non-beneficial Evapotranspiration --------------------343 7.8 Modeled Ten-mile Strip of Aquifer: Locations of Canal and Tubewells in the Prototype and in the Electric Analogue Computer -------------------------------------------------344 7.9 Graphs Showing Water Drawdowns in the Ten-mile Strip Aquifer after Pumping Twenty Years; Total Discharge from 10 Wells = 8.6 x 106 gpd. No recharge --------------------------345 7.10 Graphs Showing Water Table Drawdowns in the Ten-mile Strip Aquifer after Pumping Twenty Years; Total Discharge from 10 Wells = 8.6 x 106 gpd. Total Recharge = 5.90 x 106 gpd---346 7.11 Modeled Ten-mile Strip of Aquifer: Water Table Profiles for Six Analogue Computer Studies with Different Pumping and Recharge Rates ........ ...................................347 7.12 Model Tubewell Project in Chaj Doab: Water Tables after 20 Years of Pumping from 500 Wells at 600 gpm/Well; Recharge 5 x 106 gpd/mile along Stream and 105 gpd/sq. Mile over Tubewell Area ---------------------------------------------348 7.13 Profiles of Water Table along Section A -A' of Doab Model, West Pakistan after Pumping 500 Wells 20 Years; Four Computer Runs with Various Pumping and Recharge Rates ----349 7.14 Graph Showing Maximum Possible Well Production of Fresh Water without Admixture of Salt Water -----------------------350 7.15 Schematic Diagram of Salt Flow Model ------------------------351 7.16 Wedge Shaped Volume of Aquifer-----------------........ _352 7.17 Numerical Solution of 5 by 16 Flow Net: Ten Stream Tubes ------353 7.18 Salt Concentration of Applied Irrigation Water (No excess salt in soil) -----------------------------------------------354 ~IV



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Table 5.11 Cropping Pattern Assumed in Computing Potential Increase in Crop Value (Thousandq of Acres) Crop Acreage Increase over Current Pattern Rabi Wheat 422 100 Barley 6 Gram 58 Oilseeds 33 Kharif Rice 10 Sugar cane 116 50 Jowar 2 BaJra 10 Maize 130 80 Cotton 156 50 Fodder and Miscellaneous 297 100 Total 1240 380 Note: This is an illustrative cropping pattern computed by the methods of Appendix A.5. It is not a recommendation of the Panel and should not be adopted without further investigation. 223



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Table 1.10.2 Average Agricultural Production in Un-irrigated or Slightly Irrigated Districts in the Former Punjab(1) Ten years, from 1949-50 to 1958-59 Crop %oss area sown Yield Value Yield Value 10 acres % 10 tons 106 %s 7 per acre per acre lbs. Rs Food Grains Rice (cleaned) .13 2.5 .04 13 2.9 765 104 gleat 2.25 44.2 .52 165 37.2 510 73 Barley .10 2.0 .02 5 1.1 465 50 Jowar (sorghum) .19 3.7 .02 6 1.4 270 33 Bajra (millet) .57 11.3 .08 23 5.2 290 39 Maize (corn) .14 2.8 .05 15 3.4 810 108 Total Food Grains 3.38 66.5 .73 227 51.2 480 67 Other Food Crops 00 Gram (chick peas) .68 13.4 .11 32 7.2 355 47 0 Other pulses (legumes) .25 4.9 (.04) (11) 2.5 (335) (45) Oil seeds .224.2 .02 11 2.5 175 51 Cotton seed same as cotton '.005 3 0.7 230 78 Cane sugar (raw sugar) .06 1.2 .06 28 6.3 2,205 445 Fruits .06 1.1 (.17) (58) (13.1) (6,605) (1,000) Vegetables and other crops .13 2.5 -(26) 5.9 -(200) Fibers Cotton .04 0.8 ..005 2 0.4 115 39 Fodder .27 5.2 (1.96) (27) 6.1 (16,460) (100) Tobacco .01 0.2 .01 18 4.1 1,720 198 Total 5.10 100 1.14(2) 443 100 87 Total, less fodder, fruits, vegetables, and other 4.64 91.1 333 75.3 72 Canal Irrigated Area .22 4.3 (1) Districts of Attock, D. I. Khan, Jhelum, Mianwali, Rawalpindi, and Sialkot. (2) Less fodder. For source of data, see Table 1.7. Figures in parentheses are our own estimates.



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Chapter 7 investment efficiency, we believe that an extensive and continuing program of hydrological research should be carried forward. The United States Geological ~ Survey has outlined in detail a prototype research program in Chaj Doab. We believe that this and other similar hydrologic research projects should be implemented as an integral part of our plan. Mona Pilot Project The protocol of the research calls for an intensive study of the Mona area, a part of the Salinity and Reclamation Project No. 2 in Chaj Doab. The proposed studies cover five research categories, of which hydrology is one. The hydrological investigations include effects of pumping on the water table, evaluation of usable ground water, determination of the water balance in the area, effects of leaching on ground water quality, estimation of usable water supplies in relation to irrigation needs, prediction of drawdowns in tubewells for design purposes, merits of different well designs, and other studies for improved tubewell systems. The concentration of research effort in the Mona. area, together with the related investigations of reclamation, operations, and management, should be useful in improving the effectiveness of our plan in a sample area. Since the Mona region cannot be regarded as representative of other Punjab or Sind areas, concurrent hydrological investigations of a similar nature will be necessary to obtain data that is areally representative. Water Table Variations One of the most important hydrological variables is the depth to water table. Not only is depth per se important in terms of the success of the over-all scheme, but also it1 is a variable which subsumes several other variables. Inputs and outputs of water, such as well pumping, precipitation, irrigation, evapotranspiration, and leaching, all affect water tables. Boundaries such as canals, rivers, and edges of tubewell fields influence ground water levels through recharge and lateral infiltration. Permeability of aquifers, well spacings, and well depths also are involved. Thus, it is important to establish and monitor observation wells in selected localities of each project area in order to follow the interactions occurring as the project develops. Vertical Permeability and Ground Water Recharge_ Pumping tests of wells furnish reliable estimates of horizontal permeabilities; however, they provide imprecise information on the rate at which water 328



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Chapter 7 The model is constructed with four seasons per year (January-March, April-June, July-September, October -December). Each of the exogenously determined inflow vectors (Q, x, and r) has an assigned individual mean and standard deviation for each season that are calculated from the hydro logical record. The vectors p and p' (and two similar ve_9tors for the two sides not shown in Figure 7.20) are determined by the hydraulic gradient and the trans missibility of the aquifer. The internal flow vectors that connect directly with the groundwater (r', w, u', s, and v) have magnitudes that depend upon: (a) the season, (b) the current depth of the ground water tables, and (c) the inflow variables, r, Q, and x. The mathematical functions relating these factors to the numerical magnitude of a vector is called the feedbackc~" relation for that vector. They are 3or 4parameter functions that were fitted by the analyses of field data from West Pakistan whenever possible. When appropriate data were lacking, use was made of data from agricultural and hydrological experiment stations in other nations with comparable climate and soil. All vectors discussed so far are treated in the model as stochastic variatesnfuctuating in a random manner with appropriate dispersion about the mean values ,as determined by season and groundwater depth. Some variables such as v have only a small random component reflecting the variation in temperature levels and patterns from year to year. Other variables such as r have a large "noise -to -signal" ratio which is made to accord with that found in the historical trace of rainfall. The remaining variables y and z are choice variables that are set by the operating policy, which is itself subject to the optimization process. In general, the tubewell flow and the recirculated flow will be sensitive to the season and current target outputs for irrigation, the depth of the groundwater, current inflows including rain, and the salinity of the pumped water. The "valves" shown on Figure 7.20 are economic decision points at which cost and benefit functions are introduced. The "valve" on the leakage vector w, for example, represents the cost function for emulsion sealants to achieve various'levels of leakage abatement. The magnitude of the leakage w is dependent on: the "setting" of this "valve", which represents the efficacy of the lining, if any; the season of the year; the depth of the groundwater aquifer; and the head or amount of water in the canal distribution system. These factors are appropriately incorporated into the leakage vector feedback function. It may be noted from Figure 7.20 that in the most general case that can be handled by the single well model, there are 6 "valves" or economic 308



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Chapter 7 decisions to be made. (In the multiwell model there are 150 "valves".) These are as follows: the x-decision, investment in surface and groundwater storage to increase overall flow available for agriculture and to decrease the discharge of sweet water to the Arabian Sea; the w-decision, function pertaining to emulsion sealants for canal lining; the y-decision, the size, depth, and operating capacity of the tubewell (or tubewells); the z-decision, the agricultural component of tubewell discharge (gross benefits depend upon the cropping pattern and the distribution of water during the growing seasons); the u-u' decision, crops to augment evaporation; and the s-decision, the capacity of drains for carrying off surface flow from the area. _k The mathematical problem consists in determining the proper setting of each of the foregoing "valves" (i. e. making the proper investment decisions) so to maximize the economic benefits of the system. It should be noted that the settings built into the model include a "zero" setting. That is, for example, it is possible to study the efficacy of a design that does not entail tubewells but depends entirely on evaporation and surface drains for outflow. The stochastic nature of the hydrologic regime is reproduced by the introduction of random components into several portions of the simulation. Two types of random component generators are available in the program for use with the normal (Gaussian) probability distribution and with the log-normal probability distribution. Appropriate statistical parameters such as means, standard deviations, and serial correlation coefficients were obtained by statistical analysis of hydrological data from the Indus Plain. A significant feature of the computer program is its ability to utilize synthetic 50-year traces or flow sequences of rainfall, river, and canal flow as inputs as well as the trace corresponding to the real (historical) record. The synthetic traces are generated by a theoretical stochastic process using statistical parameters adjusted by calibration with the historical record; the traces are distinguishable from the real records by standard statistical tests. These replicate synthetic flow sequences provide a valuable means of evaluating a given tubewell scheme design more exhaustively and accurately than by using only the historical trace. This follows from the fact that the magnitudes of high and low rainfall and runoff that were observed during the period of record may not be representative of highs and lows that inhere in the population, and which could occur during the economic life of the project. Computer Program for the Multiwell Model Twenty-five tubewell models of the type shown in Figure 7.20 were combined in the multiwell model to simulate the response of the groundwater in an area subject to pumping from several wells. Since the basic unit itself 309



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s 10 t50 50 31 150 3: 150 : 6 4 20300 -50 00 A 6 0121416000 2 4 6. 18 0 12 14 16 IS 20 0 2 4 6 8 I0 12 14 16 18 20 TIME SINCE PUMPING BEGAN, IN YEARS TIME SINCE PUMPING BEGAN, IN YEARS TIME SINCE PUMPING BEGAN, IN YEARS SO I50 5 bIi 0 too 2 0 1 aa 6 200 S250 020 2 4 6 10 12 14 16 IS 20 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14. 16 20 TIME SINCE PUM PNG BEGAN, IN YEARS TIME SINCE PUMPING BEGAN, IN YEARS C.1 W= 50 o ooo 1 150 00 320 200 0 2246821416 18 20 STIME SINCE PUMPING BEGAN, IN YEARS 00 20200 3 o10 2o50 TIME SSINCEPPUPING BEGAN, IN YEARS TIME SINCE PUMPING BEGAN, IN YEARS Figure '7.9 Graphs showing water drawdowns in the ten-mile strip aquifer after pumping twenty years; total discharge from 10 wells = 8.6 x 106 d. No recharge. 200 9~~ 20020 250o 2505 300 0 ~2 4 6 10 12 14 I IS 20 0s f TIMESINE PUPIN BEAN, N YARSTIME SINCE PUMPING BEGAN, IN YEARS fr0 10 SOl .x16gd N ehre



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c 00, N xv I yv W"N -0 All ON Nl'VlV ve IN 21 lz SZ NM, lh th CD (f) --i m NO rN --i S" Q5 m LP F cn



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Chapter 6 The development of new ponds would undoubtedly be supplementary and would not displace agriculture to an~ large extent, since suitable pond sites are usually unproductive for crops. (15) With a yield of 300 to 1000 pounds of fish per acre, a one-acre pond could supply 5 grams of animal proteins per day for ten to thirty-five people. In analyzing the potential for constructing ponds to increase inland fish production, two different types of ponds can be evaluated. In areas of permeable soils and high water table, excavated ponds of the type shown in Figure 6.1 would be the normal method of construction. These ponds would be built around topographic lows and would be excavated below water-table level. In areas of impermeable soils, such as those damage by sodium, it may be possible to develope "surface ponds" through the use of bunds. This method of construction is illustrated in Figure 6.2, Since the purpose, expected life, and benefit-cost ratio are different for the two types of ponds, it is useful to examine each separately. Excavated Ponds: The depths of excavated ponds in West Pakistan should be in excess of eight feet in order to control aquatic plants. Hence, the construction of a new pond of this type would require the moving of about 13,000 cubic yards of earth per acre. It is by no means clear, however, what proportion of this removal would be necessary in practice. That is, only a few ponds would be constructed de novo, and most would consist of improvements or deepening of existing aba-n-doned canals, shallow bheels, ponds, salt pans and swamps. The earth removal, therefore, could be expected to average less than 10,000 cubic yards per acre. The cost of this removal would depend on the methods required and used, but it would be at least Rs 5000 per acre. (16) (15) Where an extensive low-lying area is seasonally flooded, a pond occupying only a small part of this area offers refuge for the fish during low water, and potentially large yield. Much of East Pakistan's fishery is conducted in this way, with 21,550,000 acres underwater in the monsoon season and 950,000 acres of permanent waters. (16) Early public-works projects in East Pakistan show costs of Rs 14 per 1000 cubic feet of earth moved. See: Pakistan Academy for Village Development Report on a Rural Public Works Program, June 1962, page 6. 242



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DtVI Il.ON 44 NONE6TEFICIAL EVPO-TRANSPIMATIO 5.7 RAN 2.5 29.2 To CRoPO .,I I 3I I I CANAL L AKAGE Figure 7 V Water Budget for the First Level of Development. Former Sind Region: Surface Distribution; Losses to Groundwater and in non-beneficial evapotranspiration ( all figures are in millions of acre feet per year). 343



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Table 1.11.2 Average Agricultural Production in Former Sind(1) Ten years, from 1949-50 to 1958-59 Crop Gross area sown Yield Value Yield Value i6 acres % 106 tons 106 Rs % per acre per acre lbs. Rs Food Grains Rice (cleaned) 1.37 19.9 .47 142 17.4 760 104 Wheat 1.36 19.6 .37 118 14.5 605 87 Barley .02 0.3 <.005 1 0.A 425 46 Jowar (sorghum) .44 6.3 .10 27 3.3 505 63 Bajra (millet) .72 10.4 .08 26 3.2 265 36 Maize (corn) .01 0.1 <.005 1 0.1 450 60 Total Food Grains 3.92 56.6 1.02 315 38.6 585 80 Other Food Crops Gram (chick peas) .47 6.8 .11 32 3.9 475 69 Other pulses (legumes) .36 5.2 (.08) (23) (2.8) (480) (64) Oil seeds • .42 6.1 .07 45 5.5 360 105 Cotton seed same as cotton .18 135 16.5 420 140 Cane sugar (raw sugar) .03 0.4 .04 19 2.3 3,485 703 Fruits .06 0.8 (.17) (86) 10.5 (6,485) (1,500) Vegetables and other crops (.21) (3.0) -(42) 5.2 -(200) Fibers Cotton .97 14.0 .09 67 8.2 210 69 Fodder (.48) (7.0) (3.56) (48) (5.9) (16,460) (100) Tobacco 005 0.1 <.005 5 0.6 1,495 1,723 ? Total 6.92 100 1.76(2) 817 100 118 Total, less fodder, fruits, vegetables and other 6.17 89.2 641 78.2 104 Canal Irrigated Area 6.06(3) 87.5 (3) (1) Divisions of Hyderabad and Khairpur. (2) Less fodder. (3) 1949-50 through 1957-58, omitting 1955-56. For source of data, see Table 1.7. Figures in parentheses are our own estimates. .A



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Chapter 3 Audio-visual teaching programs should be devel oped so that they can be separated and combined -thus providing a comparison between radio and television. Data Collection and Analysis An essential part of our program of concentration and integration is gathering accurate information on progress and limitations. This work merits heavy emphasis. There is a particularly acute need for accurate information on farm budgets, for crop -cutting experiments to ascertain yields, for accurate hydrologic data, including water applied to crops, transit losses of water, and changes in the level of the water table. Data on soil characteristics are another important need. The work of gathering such statistics should be one of the first steps to secure benchmarks from which progress can be measured, and the data should be kept current by an integrated, adequately staffed statistical system. Agricultural Credit, Insurance, and Storage With the best intent in the world, farmers are unable to increase produc tion substantially without the materials needed for modern agriculture. For the bulk of farmers in West Pakistan, increased materials can be secured at the required time only by the use of improved credit facilities. Though modest provisions for agricultural credit have been in existence for some time, every Pakistani and foregin commission that has examined this aspect of the agricultural problem has emphasized the deficiencies in form, availability, and quantity(8) of credit. A recent survey(9) of cultivators showed that only 1.7 percent (of the 96 percent who borrow) acquire funds through the cooperative societies and the Agricultural Banks. Reports of exorbitant interest rates from local lenders are numerous, and it is clear that public credit facilities must be expanded greatly if rural development is to proceed at a satisfactory pace. It is also clear that these facilities must be made an integral part of the plan detailed in this chapter. A variety of loans will be required to meet the needs of farmers. Short term loans at reasonable rates are especially important for farmers who (8)See for example: Government of Pakistan, Credit Enquiry Commission Report, Karachi, September, 1959; Government of Pakistan, Planning Commission, "The Provision of Extension Services and Rural Credit in Pakistan," Karachi, March, 1955; State Bank of Pakistan, Agricultural Credit in Pakistan, Karachi, December, 1962.. (9)Government. of Pakistan, Central Statistical Office, National Sample Survey, Second Round, Karachi, 1960, page 50. 153



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Chapter 3 These short-term loans could be made more attractive to farmers by two modifications. First, farmers might be given the option of repaying them in kind, at agreed upon prices. This provision would protect cultivators from the uncertainties of the market. Second, the farmers could be protected from the hazards of crop failure by having the amount of the loan reduced in the event of exceptionally low yields, or by having the terminal date deferred. In this way, an insurance provision is built into the system to allay the farmers' fears of adopting innovations. The proposed scheme helps to minimize unproductive use of borrowed funds. Because the loans are made in kind, i.e., in the form of fertilizer vouchers, rather than rupees, there is much less danger that the funds will be expended on unproductive activities such as ceremonies. Historically, land has served as collateral for loans, and this has led to several inequities. For example, many cultivators who do not own land have had extreme difficulty in qualifying for loans. In addition, farmers greatly fear the loss of land that is possible when they borrow funds. The proposed program would not affect the livelihood base of farmers, and the added returns from farm supplies such as fertilizer would virtually assure the farmers a greater net income. Finally, the scheme helps to minimize the farmer's risk in adopting innovations that require some cash expenditure. To be effective, however, this credit plan requires development of, and integration with, other elements stressed in this chapter. For example, additional irrigation water may be required to make the increased use of commercial fertilizer profitable. The fertilizer must be made locally available to farmers, and the extension staff must be willing and competent to do farm planning. A successful credit operation also depends on prompt processing of loan applications, and on safeguards to insure that an illiterate farmer is not cheated in quantity or price under the voucher system. Finally, provisions for loan supervision must be adequate to insure repayment. While the above program has been discussed with special reference to the Agricultural Development Bank, it is a scheme that could be implemented also by cooperative societies. Private banks, too, should be encouraged, perhaps even subsidized, to undertake similar operations. For as is indicated in Table 3.4, the potential credit needs to enlarge the gross sown area and to -undertake the fertilizer, and pest control programs in a million-acre project area are about Rs 4 crore per year. At least Rs 1 to 1.5 crore should be available as improved credit to start operations in each project Area. This need could double or triple within a few years.. 155



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Appendix A.5 Slight shortages below the saturation amount will raise the moisture ten_4 sion slightly and temporarily, with almost no effects on crop yield. As shortages become more substantial, however, the moisture tension will be raised more and for longer periods and the effect on the crop, it seems plausible, will be more than in proportion to the shortfall. Eventually, if the water supply is only a small fraction of the saturation amount, the crop will fail entirely. The simplest yield function that possesses these qualitative properties is the quadratic curve. Thus we propose the following water-yield relationsi: y = M [1 -b(S x)21I(1 where y =yield in maunds per acre, M =yield at the saturation point, S =saturation depth of irrigation, in inches, x =actual depth of irrigation, b = a constant to be determined empirically. It should be remarked that although the grounds for this formula are flimsy it conforms to much of the observed data about the relation of water to plant growth (except for the implied symmetry of behavior around the saturation point, which is not important). Except for its emphasis on saturation, this formula is similar to the Mitscherlich formula(4). which appears to be favored by many agronomists. Equation (1) is a three parameter formula. One parameter, S, can be obtained, as was said above, from evapotranspiration estimates. A second parameter, b, can be derived from the amount of water at which the crop just fails, i.e., the value of x for which equation (1) falls to zero. Inspection of a number of water -supply vs. yield graphs for experimental plots in the arid sections of the United States(5) indicates that quite generally yields fall to zero when total water supply is between 10 percent and 15 percent of the saturation amount. Fortunately, the main results of the analysis are not very sensitive to the failure value selected. Ten percent M4E. 0. Heady and J. L. Dillon, Agricultural Production Functions, (Ames: Iowa State Univ. Press, 1961), p. 11. (5)For a wealth of experimental results see Samuel Fortier and Arthur A. Young, "Irrigation Requirements of the Arid and Semiarid Lands of the Southwest," U.S. Department of Agriculture, Technical Bulletin No. 185 (Washington, 1930). 419



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Chapter 6 production periods. Finally, there are the very serious marketing problems of quality control, standards and grading. These must be overcome if foreign markets are to be tapped in any major way. If agricultural diversification is to proceed at a reasonably rapid rate, farmers must be able to acquire the necessary inputs. Appropriate seeds, fertilizers and pesticides are obvious examples of supplies that must be on hand at the farm when they are needed. Equally important are the short and medium-term credit that farmers require to purchase these inputs. Lastly, there is the problem of acquiring and transferring the appropriate technology to farmers. This is a very vital input which, given the heterogeneity of West Pakistan, will make particular demands on the extension staff. 250



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Chapter 5 hydrologic ones. The administration must keep abreast of the technology. However, undue interference with agricultural markets can be self-defeating. Price control by fiat, for example, is more likely to hinder than to stimulate the desired increase in agricultural production. For example, sufficient price flexibity must be retained so that farmers will respond to the shifts in demand patterns that increased prosperity entails. There is evidence, indeed, that excessive reliance on official channels for the manufacture and distribution of fertilizer and other agricultural requisites has been harmful in the past. If the farmer's cooperation is to be elicited he must be free to chose the cropping pattern that he deems to be in his own best interest. He may be provided with advice and positive incentives for planting the crops that the agricultural planners advocate, but the decision must ultimately be his. It is for this reason that an overall crop plan, like that of table 5.11, can be no more than a goal to work toward. This table, however, is not presented even as such a goal, but only as a tool to help foresee what is possible. Overall cropping patterns for the individual project areas and programs for achieving them will have to be worked out in the light of detailed studies of the technical conditions and the marketing outlook in each area. Prospects in Former Sind Possible Effects of Reorientation Toward a Market Economy The purpose of this section is twofold: (1) to illustrate another method for evaluating new agricultural production patterns in the project areas of West Pakistan, and (2) to analyze the results given by the method for the Khairpur region in southern West Pakisten. The data for this illustration were taken, for the most part, from the excellent Khairpur Project Planning Report( P) prepared by Hunting Technical Services (hereafter referred to as the "Khairpur Report"). The intention is not to assess the value of that document, but rather to develop further the implications of certain information contained in it. In more specific terms, the discussion and models presented here are designed: (1) To outline methods for determining the most profitable production patterns for the area commanded by the Khairpur Feeder West, (2) To indicate the major impediments that cause the value of the present output to be less than (6)West Pakistan Water and Power Development Authority, Sukkur-GuduGhulam Mohammed Drainage and Salinity Control Project, Khairpur Command, Volume I, (Hunting Technical Services), London, 1961. 203



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Chapter 4 Inventory Of Administrative Implications Against the general background of administrative trends and governmental arrangements outlined above, we believe that the following considerations should guide the establishment of a project organization: Tubewell Operation and Investigations The tubewell installation SCARP I is not a simple facility to be turn-key transferred along with its operators for routine operaation. On the contrary, the tubewells should be part of a project complex of planning, research, experiment, and operation for maximizing agricultural production and general development. Therefore, there should be sustained interest and some form of continuing relationship on the part of several government agencies. Continuing study is needed of tube well performance-linings, screens, pumps and motors. Project operational data and research are directly relevant to design of future installations, a responsibility of WAPDA. There is much more to be learned about the behavior of underground water and soil. Knowledge of the effect of pumping and of leaching upon the quantity and quality of underground water and upon soil conditions is essential for project operations and for future project planning. The tie with WASID in WAPDA should be close and cooperative. Integration of Tubewell and Canal Water Supplies The basic supply of irrigation water for the project area will come from the traditional canal system. In the project area will be Irrigation Department personnel responsible for canal maintenance, water regulation and crop measurement. This staff will need to be integrated and co.ordinated with project operations. Canal leakage is a major contributor to ground water recharge, and the Irrigation Department will have an interest in any consideration of canal lining. 176



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Chapter 7 pumping rates and economic parameters relating to agricultural production. We have used both types of computer. The analogue computer studies were carried out at the Computation Laboratory of the United States Geological Survey at Phoenix, Arizona, under the direction of Mr. Herbert E.Skibitzke, and the digital computer studies were made on an I. B. M 7090 Computer by the Harvard Water Resources Group under the direction of Professor Harold A. Thomas, Jr., in Cambridge, Massachusetts. Analogue Computer Studies of Effects of Pumping in Project Areas The analogy between the flow of a viscous fluid through porous media and the flow of electricity through a conductive network is well established in the literature.(14) (15) The fundamental equation describing one flow system is equally applicable to the other. The aquifer is simulated in the analogue model by a rectangular grid network of resistors and capacitors, in which each resistor is inversely proportional to the coefficient of transmissibility and each capacitor directly proportional to the coefficient of storage. The choice of scale factors is governed by the size of the aquifer to be modeled, the time span under consideration, and the performance characteristics of the electronic equipment used. We shall summarize the results of two investigations on the analogue computer that yield practical conclusions relating to the optimal size of project area. Analysis of a Modeled Ten-Mile Strip of Aquifer An analogue computer study was made of a ten-mile strip one mile in width with canals along each end, as shown in Figure 7.8. The region is pumped by 10 tubewells located along the longitudinal axis. The purpose of the study was to ascertain the rate of lowering of the water table in the central portion of the area with various pumping rates and patterns of recharge. Questions have been raised as to the effectiveness of pumping in lowering water tables near canals, streams or water courses. Experience with the Rasul Project, undertaken in 1945, which involved about 1800 tubewells in Rechna and Chaj Doab, indicated the difficulties in reducing ground water elevations near canals with inadequate intensity and capacity of pumping. (14)H. E. Skibitzke, "Report on Hydrology on Indus Plain, West Paksitan' (15)W. J. Carplus and W. W. Soroka, Analogue Methods, Chapter 10, 2nd Edition, McGraw-Hill, 1959. 292



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Chapter 7 Other hydrological considerations tend to limit the size of projects areas to about one million acres when, as in the Panel scheme, intensive irrigation at an average annual rate of 3.5 acre feet per acre is planned. In the first place efficiency of water management requires that project areas be located and shaped to accord with the present major canal command areas. Furthermore, to achieve intensive irrigation, a substantial proportion of the tubewells for each project must be located outside the project area so that the aquifer of the northern plain can be mined uniformly without excessive and uneconomic lowering of the water table within the project areas, and so that flexibility is provided for mixing of pumped water with surface water for the control of salinity and alkalinity, and for the optimal distribution of water to different regions. When the size of project areas is made larger than approximately one-million acres, the cost of transporting tubewell water (canal remodeling and new conveyance channels) into the areas increases sharply and becomes a major item of expense. The foregoing considerations are of a general nature and are not necessarily binding in every case. They identify an optimal size of about one million acres, but this should be taken as an average value; some projects maybe larger and others smaller de pending upon local conditions. Analysis of Effects of Tubewell Pumping on Water Tables in SalinityControl and Reclamation Project Number 1 in Rechna Doab The tubewell concept is of fundamental importance to the Panel Plan for increasing agricultural activity in the Indus River Basin. In the previous section we presented results of calculations based upon an elaborate computer model that predicted that if the tubewell fields of a project are of large size and capacity they will be effective in lowering water tables in regions now impaired by waterlogging and salinity. In deriving this model consideration was given to many interrelated hydrological and soil factors that affect recharge rates, evapotranspiration losses, recycling of pumped water and lateral infiltration from adjoining areas as the water, table is lowered. As stated previously these "feedback" functions were based upon the best available hydrological data from West Pakistan and other comparable regions. In setting the many parameters used in the computer program to predict rates of lowering of the water table, uncertainties and errors were inevitable since the available data were far from being adequately detailed and complete. Therefore it is important from a practical viewpoint to compare our predictions with results of recent pumping tests in the Salinity and Reclamation Project No. 1 in Rechna Doab which became available after our predictions from the computer study had been made. 316



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Chapter 2 product. The manufacturing process is very simple. It consists of mixing finely-ground phosphate rock, preferably containing 32 percent of more P205, with slightly diluted sulfuric acid (55*B) in the ratio of 100 parts of rock to 85 parts of acid. The principal chemical reaction consists of the conversion of the insoluble tricalcium phosphate in the rock to hydrated monocalcium phosphate and the precipitation of the excess calcium as calcium sulfate. Concentrated superphosphates contain from 25 to 48 percent available P205.The highest concentrations, called triple superphosphate, are manufactured by soaking phosphate rock in phosphoric acid and water, thereby converting the insoluble tricalcium phosphate into water-soluble hydrated monocalcium phosphate. The phosphoric acid can be made from phosphate rock by production and oxidation of elemental phosphorus in an electric furnace, and hydration of the resultant P205; or by decomposition of phosphate rock with sulfuric acid, and filtration of the resulting phosphoric acid from the insoluble residue. The capital cost of the existing superphosphate plant at Lyallpur, which has a capacity of 3, 500 tons of P205 per year (18, 000 tons of superphosphate) was Rs 2.5 million, or Rs 0.7 per annual pound of P205. At present, all the phosphate rock and sulfur used in the production of phosphate fertilizer in West Pakistan must be imported. On the world market, the price of elemental sulfur is about $25 per ton. Because this material is inflammable, its shipping costs are rather high-from $10 to $15 per long ton. High quality phosphate rock costs about $7.50 per short ton. Although the United States is the largest producer, this material is also produced in Morocco, Tunisia, and Jordan. Shipping costs from these countries to Karachi could be as low as $8.50 per ton. Assuming a cost of $40 per ton for sulfur, and $16 per ton for phosphate rock on the docks at Karachi, the total cost of raw materials for a ton of P25would be $75. This is much lower than the cost of imported P205 as triple superphosphate. This material sells at the shipping point for about $62 per ton containing 48 percent P205-Shipping costs for bagged fertilizer are close to $10 per ton, making a total at Karachi of $150 per ton of P205. Imported raw materials for a plant capable of producing 100 tons Of P205 per day, operated at 90 percent of capacity, would cost $2.5 million per year 104



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Chapter 6 The above discussion has emphasized the biological relationships that place limitations on poultr~jproduction. Equally important to the farmer are the costs and returns associated with changed methods. In this connection, four questions are relevant: a) What types of feeds and antibiotics will be required for balanced rations ? b) Are local feeds available to supply these requirements? c) What are the alternative uses (opportunity costs) of the inputs used in poultry production? d) What is the demand (current and future) for poultry products? While the "nutrient requirements for chickens are extensive, (13) there is sufficient variety of local food stuffs to meet most of the requirements. Wheat, barley, maize and sorghum are available as energy sources. Vegetable and animal protein supplements could be dervived from cottonseed meal and fish meal. Vitamins, antibiotics and other feed additives are also available locally. Because of seasonal price movements in feedgrains, it is difficult to calculate precisely the cost of a "balanced ration". Using a rough extimate of Rs 350 per long ton,(14) feed costs (including antibiotics) would be about Rs 0. 5 (3 pounds feed x Rs 0. 16) for each pound of gain. Hence, under good feeding conditions, a 4-pound broiler would require about Rs 2 worth of feed. To this must be added housing costs, the cost of the chick, labor costs (which may be zero if there is underemployment of labor) and an additional charge to cover death losses. Therefore, unless the farmer can receive Rs 3.5 to Rs 4.0 per bird, he will be unable to cover the cost of his inputs. He would be in a better financial position if he used his labor and other resources in farm enterprises other than chickens. Similarly, a dozen eggs (from a flock laying 125 eggs per bird per year) would need to bring at least Rs 1.25 (8 lbs. feed x Rs .16) to cover feed costs, or an estimated Rs 1.75 per dozen to cover all direct costs. (13) See, Nutrient Requirements of Poultry, op. cit. (14) Lever Bros. sell a mixed feed (which approaches a balanced poultry ration) for Rs 16 per cwt. at Lyallpur (Spring 1963). 240



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Chapter 5 that the output of intermediate goods is sufficient to support the anticipated -~production of end-products but, at the same time, it would be fallacious to include the value of the intermediate goods in appraising the productivity of the economy. They are consumed by the economy just as surely as they are produced by it and the only value produced is that of the end-products. In the economy under study, fodder and the services of bullocks are the most significant intermediate goods. For example, much of the fodder fed to livestock is a complementery by-product of the normal cropping pattern. Wheat straw, and sorghum stover are two of the main sources of feed. This dry fodder is supplemented by additional supplies of green fodder during most of the year as shown in Table 5.16. Because forage is considered a necessary input to livestock (except in a few local areas where it can be sold), it is not included in the value of agricultural production for the region, Bullocks, too, are not included, though other livestock products (meat and milk) make a substantial contribution to the value of Khairpur output. Water, the last of the major inputs, is the most limiting resource of Khairpur. The analysis took, as given, the water supplies shown in Row 13 of Table 5.17. These supplies represent the mean monthly discharge of Khairpur Feeder West in acre-feet. For example, 69.9 thousand acre feet have been available historically during the month of October. The monthly water requiements for an acre of each crop are shown also in the same table.Unfortunately there is inadequate information on the quantity of water farmers use per acre for each of the crops, and the coefficients given in Table 5.17 are derived from the Weather Bureau data shown in Appendix A. 1. These data represent the potential evapotranspiration during the different months of the year; however, they are thought to be a reasonable approximation of present irrigation practice in Khairpur. (7) The salinity of the canal water is low, and water much in excess of evapotranspiration is not Required for leaching purposes, at least over the short term. For example, cotton, oilseeds, and winter vegetables all require 0.43 acre feet of water per acre during the month of October. In fact, use of the Weather Bureau (7) The disagreement on water requirements for different crops mentioned earlier applies to Khairpur as well. The Khairpur analysis was completed also using the Blaney-Criddle water requirements (H. F. Blaney and W. D. Criddle, Irrigation Water Requirements for West Pakistan). Except for sugarcane and winter vegetables, the latter coefficients gave essentially the same results as the Weather Bureau data. 205



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Pakistan, Laws, statutes, etc., Oil & Gas Corporation ordinance, 1961: ----Laws, statutes, etc., President's order no. 18 of 1959; the basic democracies order, 1959: The Gazette of Pakistan, (Registered no. S.1033, extraordinary), p. 1759-1803, October 27, 1959. Pakistan, Minis try of Finance, Economic Affairs Division,, Handbook of the second five-year plan (1960-65): Karachi, 28 tables, 1961. Pakistan,, Ministry of Food and Agriculture, Agricultural Census Commission, First census of agriculture, Pakistan, Preliminary Report: agricultural census West Pakistan, August, 1961, Lahore, printed by the assistant manager, Govt. of Pakistan Press, 47 p., 1961. -----------First census of agriculture, Pakistan, Preliminary Report: East Pakistan, July, 1960, Karachi, printed by the manager, Govt. of Pakistan Press, 20, ii p., 1961. Pakistan, Min istry of Food and Agriculture, Cooperation anLd Marketing Dept., Crop wealth of Pakistan: Karachi, Manager of Publications, 287 p., (Marketing series, C. & M. A. 4) 1952. Pakistan, Ministry of Food and Agriculture, Directorate of Agricultural Economics and Statistics, Survey report on use' of fertilizer in Pakistan: Rawalpindi, 113 p., 1961. Pakistan, Office of the Census Commissioner, Population census of Pakistan, 1961,. census bulletin no. 2, sex,, urban-rural, religion, non-Pakistanis: Final release by Thanas in East Pakistan and Tehsils in West Pakistan, Karachi, Manager of Publications, 210 p., (Census 61,'P. no. 88) 1961. -----------Population census of Pakistan, 1961, census bulletin no. 3*, age, sex and marital status: Karachi, Manager of Publications, 416 p., (Census 61, P.* no. 89) 1962. 4 Pakistan, Planning Board, The first five-year plan, 1955-60: Draft, May, 1956 V. 1, Karachi, Manager of Publications, 96 p., 1956. Pakistan, Planning Commission, Revised cost and proposed financing of the second five-year plan and the Indus Basin settlement plan works: Karachi, 20 p., 1961. -----------The second five-year plan (1960-65): Karachi, 414 p., 1960. -----------Rev. estimates, November, 1961: Karachi,, 70 'p., 1961. Pakistan, Provincial Reorganization Committee, Report, Part 1, West Pakistan: Lahore, 197 p. 1961. Pakistan, Scientific Commission, Report, 1960: n.p., 102 p., 1960. 395



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Table 5.16 Forage Yields Per Acre, and Livestock Requirements Per Head Summer Fodder Winter Fodder (Maunds of Total Digestible Nutrients) Straw Summer Fodder 36 Sorghum 24 Rice 9 Wheat 5 Oilseeds 1 Gram 1 Winter Fodder 45 Sugarcane 13 Livestock Forage 10 10 20 Requirement Per Head Bullock Requirements: 0. 13 bullock per cultivated acre. 0.20 cow per bullock. Source: Hunting Technical Services. 22 8



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Chapter I Observed and projected rates of population growth According to the census counts, there were 9.2 million more human beings in West Pakistan in 1961 than in 1951, an increase of 27.1 percent over the tenyear period (corresponding to an annual rate of increase of 2.4 percent). At this rate, every five minutes ten more mouths must be fed; every year the population increase would fill two cities the size of Cincinnati or Denver. The rate of increase shown by the two censuses of 1951 and 1961 is higher than that estimated by demographers prior to the 1961 census. For the country as a whole, the Planning Commission of Pakistan predicted (7) a 1960 population three million less than the census count. Even the highest estimate for West Pakistan, made by the United Nations, was 0.7 million lower than the recorded figures. A small part of this increase was due to immigration several hundred thousand more people came into West Pakistan than left it during the decade 1951 to 1961. (8) But the major part must have resulted from the excess of births over deaths. The United Nations Department of Economics and Social Affairs has estimated that, at present, about forty-four children are born and twenty-two human beings die each year per thousand persons in West Pakistan. In projecting future populations, the United Nations has assumed that the annual birth rate would decline within twenty years to somewhere between forty-two .and twenty -eight children per thousand, and that there would be a marked decrease in mortality during the same period to between sixteen and twelve deaths per year per thousand people. As indicated in Table 1.3 (column 2). the higher birth rate estimated by the United Nations, if combined with a rapidly declining mortality, could nearly double the population of West Pakistan in the next twenty-five years. On the other hand, if the decrease in mortality is accompanied by markedly lower fertility, the population will increase by somewhat less than sixty percent over this period (column 4). (7) See Report of the Food and Agriculture Commission, p. 558; Government of Pakistan', Ministry of Food and Agriculture, November 1960. (8) Part of the increase may be an artifact, resulting from under counting in the 1951 census, which was taken before the country had fully recovered from the disturbances of partition. Under counting in 1951 is supported by the fact that, between 1941 and 1951, the census figures showed a population increase of only 5.4 million people, or 19.1 percent, whereas in the previous decade the increase was 20 percent. However, it is more likely that the low rate of increase between 1941 and 1951, as compared with 1931-41, was due to under counting in 1931 and over counting in 1941. Resistance activities in 1931 led to non-cooperation with the government, while in 1941, political rivalry among religious groups as the time of partition drew near made both sides try to swell their numbers in the census. 36



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Chapter 2 in foreign exchange. Foreign currency fixed charges on a superphosphate plant of this size should not much exceed $500,000 per year. The equivalent amount of imported fertilizer would cost $5 million. It is evident that considerable saving in foreign exchange can be obtained by producing soluble phosphate fertilizer in West Pakistan from imported phosphate rock and elemental sulfur, rather than importing the processed material. If raw materials plus manufacturing costs of soluble phosphates in West Pakistan can be brought down to the cost imported of triple superphosphate, including shipping charges, the cost Of P205 at the farm should be around Rs .435, or about nine cents per pound. With an average annual dose of 10 to 15 pounds to the acre, the total cost of phosphate should be between Rs 4.35 and Rs 6.5, equivalent to $0.90 to $1.35, A normal superphosphate plant with a capacity of 100 tons Of P205 per day uses about 380 tons of raw material and produces about 520 tons of fertilizer. A triple superphosphate plant uses the same weight of raw material for 100 tons Of P205, but the weight of the fertilizer produced is only 220 tons. It is obvious that transportation costs will be lower if the location of a normal superphosphate plant is as close as possible to the point of use of the fertilizer. On the other hand, the lowest transportation costs will be obtained by manufacturing triple superphosphate at a location as close as possible to the source of raw materials. For example, yearly transportation costs to the Former Punjab of triple superphosphate produced by a 100-tons-per-day P205 plant located at Karachi, and operated at 90 percent of capacity, would be about Rs 2.6 million, For a normal superphosphate plant of the same capacity at Lyallpur, the transportation costs of raw material would be Rs 4.5 million, while for a normal superphosphate plant at Karachi, transportation costs of fertilizer would be Rs 6.3 million. Other things being equal, it would appear desirable to produce phosphate fertilizer in West Pakistan in the form of triple superphosphate, and to locate the manufacturing plants at Karachi. Prior to 1957, there was a negligible use of phosphate fertilizers in Pakistan. Imports of triple superphosphate began during 1957-58, but the amount obtained for the entire country was less than 5,000 long tons. Phosphate imports for all of Pakistan increased to 11,000 long tons of triple superphosphate in 1960. Local production prior to 1960 was less than 2,000 tons of superphosphate per year. A new plant is now in operation at Lyallpur, with a capacity of 18,000 tons of superphosphate, equivalent to 7,000 tons of triple superphosphate, or about 3,500 tons Of P205105



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Khan, Ali Asghar, Farm management studies in the former Punjab: Lahore, printed by the Superintendent, Govt. Print., West Pakistan, 39 p. (West Pakistan, Dept. of Agriculture, Agriculture marketing & economic surveys, Publication 4) 1959. Khan, Mubashir Lall, Water requirements of West Pakistan: Indus, v. 2, no. 8, p. 21-26, September, 1961. Kidwai, Zamir-ud-Din, Geology of Rechna and Chaj Doabs, West Pakistan: West Pakistan Water and Power Development Authority, Water and Soils Investigation Div., Bull. 5, 1963. Kirmani, S. S., Barrages in the Indus project: Indus, v. 2, no. 7, p. 4-7, August, 1961. Krishman, M. S., Geology of the salt deposits in the Punjab salt range, Pakistan: Geol. Soc. Am. Annual Meeting, Houston, Texas (abst.), p. 186A, 1962. Larson, Carl A., A progress report on the production of five varieties of wheat in the Punjab with seven fertility increments and four water treatments: Lyallpur, 26 p., 1962. Lauritzen, C. W., Lining irrigation laterals and farm ditches: Washington, U.S. Govt. Print. Off., 11 p. (U.S. Dept of Agriculture, Agriculture information Bulletin no. 242) 1961. -.Linings for irrigation canals: Irrigation, Engineering and Maintenance, 9 (13), p. 10-11, and 10 (1), p. 12-13, 21-22, December, 1959, January, 1960. --------Plastic films for water storage: American Water Works Assn., Journal, 53 (2), p. 135-140, February, 1961. --------Seepage control with plastic film: Irrigation Engineering and Maintenance, 7, p. 18-19, 32-33, May, 1957. Lauritzen, C. W., and Haws, Frank W., Asphalt-burlap linings for canals and reservoirs, results from a test installation of a built-up asphalt-burlap laminate structure for canal and reservoir linings: Agricultural Engineering, 40 (6), p. 340-342, 344, June, 1959. Lauritzen, C. W., Haws, F. W., and Humpherys, A. S., Plastic film for controlling seepage losses in farm reservoirs: Logan, Utah, 18 p. (Utah, Agricultural Experiment Station, Logan, Bulletin 391) 1956. Lawson, George W., Technical co-operation for administrative improvement: American Academy of Political and Social Science, Annals, 323, p. 111-119, May, 1959. 391



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Chapter 3 Almost certainly demands for supplies that must be purchased will develop in advance of savings. The initial credit funds for one project area are equal to about one -third of the total funds lent annually by the Agricul tural Development Bank.O-1) A second type of program, that has particular applicability to cooperative groups, emphasizes the interrelationship between credit and storage. This approach has been found to be very effective in the Comilla experiment in East Pakistan,(12) and should be attempted in an early project area of West Pakistan. Under this arrangement, a farmer deposits grain in a cooperative godown after harvest-rather than selling it in the market. He may ob tain funds by drawing credit against this grain, and later in the season, he may "reclaim" the grain by repaying the loan. On the other hand, he may choose to sell the grain being held in storage, and to repay the loan from the sale proceeds. This program, too, has a number of advantages. It changes the security base from land to commodities, and there is no problem of debt repayment because collateral has already been deposited. Secondly, the storage program allows farmers to take advantage of seasonal price move ments. Instead of having to sell immediately after harvest-when market supplies are greatest and prices lowest--the farmer is able to wait and to obtain the (usually) higher prices that prevail later in the season. Moreover, increased storage has the effect of dampening price fluctuations, thereby reducing price uncertainty to the farmer. Limiting this uncertainty is of great importance to cultivators, as is emphasized in Chapters 5 and 6. Combined credit and storage facilities of the type outlined above are therefore particularly desirable projects for local cooperative or Basic Democracy groups, and the construction of community storage facilities should be regarded as a high-priority project in the Rural-Works program. (11) Agricultural Credit in Pakistan, State Bank of Pakistan, Karachi, 1962, pp. 91-92. (12)See in this connection: Pakistan Academy for Village Development, "A New Rural Cooperative System for Comilla Thana," Dacca, 1962. 156



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Chapter 4 Relations with the Departments of Agriculture and Irrigation The process of deputing from the Departments of Agriculture and Irrigation should be the occasion of negotiating firm arrangements for other services. The Agricultural Department and the Central Ministry of Food and Agriculture should back up the Project extension work with senior technical guidance when required and with a research program to serve project needs. With respect to the Irrigation Department, there should be operating relationships for the purpose of planning and scheduling the canal service to the project area. Agreement with other Agencies The research activities of WASID of WAPDA should continue in the project area. Other steps of high priority would be negotiation of agreements with the Basic Democracies, the Agricultural Development Corporation, the Cooperative Department and the Agriculture Bank. Organization of the Project Administration At an early stage the project administration will wish to firm-up its organizational blueprint.. This can be done as soon as final arrangements are made as to deputing and as to services from other agencies. The outline of organization can be foreseen. A Central Land and Water Planning Staf to guide and coordinate cropping patterns, water use and reclamation; A Central Record and Reporting Staff in effect a central intelligence and communications center; 182



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Chapter 1 THE PROBLEM Introduction Of the 310,000 square miles of West Pakistan, the major part is a thinly inhabited wilderness of deserts, marsh, and mountains. Eastward through this wild country, Alexander the Great marched his worn troops, some 2,,300 years ago. Suddenly they came upon a mighty river. This was the Indus, from which a sub -continent takes its name. It was the largest river the Greeks had ever seen. In the distance lay a vast plain, stretching flat and level to the horizon. As the soldiers pressed eastward, they came to five other rivers, tributaries of the Indus, even though three of them were as large as the Tigris or the Euphrates. On the river banks,, Alexander found and conquered brick-walled towns and cities. Among these may have been the small settlement that in after times would become the great city of Lahore, the principal seat of the rulers of the Punjab -the Land of the Five Rivers. Finally the soldiers would go no farther to the east. Piling their supplies in wooden boats, they proceeded slowly southwestward down the rivers of the Punjab and onto the great plain. Here each river flowed through a green ribbon of farm land a few miles wide. The fields were irrigated when the rivers overflowed their banks during the monsoon floods of summer; the soldiers saw many inundation canals that the farmers had dug to guide the flood waters. Between the green ribbons of farm land, beyond the reach of the canals, lay broad stretches of dry and empty desert. After a journey of many weeks, the army came to the place where the tributary waters joined the Indus. Though the plain still stretched endlessly before them, they were now in the land called Sind, the country of the Indus. They were still several hundred miles from the sea. The Greeks were not the only conquerors to be drawn by the fertile fields and rich cities of the plain. More than two thousand years earlier, the Indus and its tributaries had nourished the beginning of a center of civilization. Long before Alexander's coming, the civilization had been overthrown and rebuilt by Aryan invaders from the northwest. And after his time,, the history of conquest was repeated over and over, by Persians, Arabs, Tartars, Moguls., Sikhs, and, finally, by the British. 19



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7.19 Salt Concentration of Applied Irrigation Water (60T /acre Page of salt in soil) ---.-----------------------------------------355 7.20 Schematic Diagram of Basic Hydrologic Model for Digital Computer Simulation --------------------------------------356 7.21 Model of Well Locations ---------------------------------------357 7.22 Multiwell Model: Surface Elevations, and Other Parameters for 25 Cells ---------------------------------------------------358 7.23 Multiwell Model: Well Location, 14 Runs ----------------------359 7.24 Effect of Annual Irrigation Target, UT, on Rate of Drawdown ------360 7.25 Details of Seasonal Futain-------------361 7.26 Multiwell Model: Drawdown vs. Pumping Rae---------362 7.27 Drawdowns across Rectangular Project Areas Having Widths of 4.5, 14, and 41 Miles, Showing the Effect of Lateral Infiltration after 20 Years of Pumping. The Maximum Drawdown without Infiltration in 20 Years is 67 Feet ----------363 TABLES Page 1.1.1 Estimated Potential Evapotranspiration and Estimated Effective Precipitation for Representative Stations in West Pakistan (by Rabi and Kharif Seasons) ----------------------------------67 1.1.2 Approximate Value of Crops Destroyed by Floods, 1948-60 ---------68 1.2 River Waters and Their Uses in the Indus Plain ------------------69 1.3 Past and Projected Populations of West Pakistan ------------------70 1.4 Population by Districts and Regions in West Pakistan --------------71 1.5 Urban Population of West Pakistan, 1951 and 1961 -----------------72 1.5.1 Approximate Average Value of Pakistan Exports and Imports, 1959-61 ----------m-------------------------------73 16 Average Agricultural Production in West Pakistan by Regions --74 1.7 Average Agricultural Production in West Pakistan by Crops --------75 1.8 Average Agricultural Production in Canal-irrigated but not very Waterlogged and Saline Districts in the Former Punjab~ ---77 1.9 Average Agricultural Production in Canal-irrigated but Waterlogged and/or Saline Districts in the Former Punjab -------78 1.10.1 Average Agricultural Production in Districts with Partial Canal Irrigation in the Former Punjab ------------------------------79 1.10.2 .Average Agricultural Production in Un-irrigated or Slightly Irrigated Districts in the Former Punjab -----------------------80 XV



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Table A. 1.1 Estimate of Potential Evapotranspiration for Selected Stations in West Pakistan (Inches of Evap.) LAHORE Method Jan. Feb. March April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Annual 1. Kobler (H-W-W) 1.97 2.32 4.55 6.71 9.58 8.83 6.93 6.30 6.52 5.40 3.09 1.80 64.00 2. Kohler (Brunt) 1.57 1.83 3.78 5.83 8.61 7.95 6.25 5.52 5.80 4.97 2.69 1.51 56.31 3. Penman 1.06 1.46 3.26 4.62 7.22 7.49 6.70 6.03 4.94 3.56 1.58 .97 48.89 4. Thornthwaite (Ahmad) 54.0 5. Rohwer(Raman) 1.15 1.46 3.44 6.55 10.25 10.11 6.62 4.80 4.67 4.39 2.04 1.29 56.77 Recommended 1.6 1.9 3.7 5.6 8.2 7.6 6.3 5.6 5.2 4.5 2.6 1.5 54.3 RAWALPINDI 1. Kohler (H-W-W) 1.61 1.87 362 5.56 8.64 8.17 6.81 5.80 5.38 4.63 2.80 1.61 56.50 2. Kohler (Brunt) 1.27 1.44 2.96 4.72 7.66 7.32 6.06 5.12 4.74 4.08 2.37 1.35 49.09 3. Penman .84 1.19 2.71 4.07 6.72 6.86 6.47 5.60 4.10 2.93 1.24 .76 43.49 4. Thornthwaite 46.8. 5. Rohwer 1.74 1.73 3.11 4.90 9.39 10.27 5.88 3.42 4.19 4.49 2.82 1.96 53.90 Recommended 1.3 1.5 3.0 4.6 7.3 7.0 6.1 5.2 4.5 3.5 2.3 1.3 47.6 MULTAN 1. Kohler(H-W-W) 2.34 2.68 4.91 7.08 9.76 9.21 8.37 7.71 7.03 5.65 3.56 2.31 70.61 2. Kohler (Brunt) 1.86 2.10 4.09 6.02 8.96 8.36 7.43 6.79 6.46 5.12 3.07 1.93 62.19 3. Penman 1.17 1.58 3.36 4.79 7.59 7.97 7.66 7.04 5.38 3.71 1.73 1.12 53.10 4. Thornthwaite .39 .66 2.83 6.38 8.23 8.43 8.50 7.84 6.85 4.85 1.61 .51 51. 08 5. Rohwer 1.98 2.22 4.04 6.78 10.21 11.38 8.03 6.04 5.85 4.26 3.35 2.24 66.38 Recommended 1.9 2.2 4.0 5.9 8.4 8.0 7.5 6.8 5.8 4.5 2.7 1.9 59.6 SIALKOT 1. Kohler (H-W-W) 1.82 2.22 4.01 6.77 9.40 8.81 6.87 5.84 6.07 5.49 2.92 1.70 61.92 2. Kohler (Brunt) 1.44 1.73 3.27 5.84 8.69 7.96 6.14 5.10 5.40 5.04 2.53 1.44 54.48 3. Penman .95 1.36 2.95 4.62 7.27 7.49 6.65 5.83 4.68 3.58 1.42 .86 47.66 4. Thornthwaite 53. 0 5. Rohwer Recommended 1.5 1.8 3.3 5.7 8.1 7.5 6.2 5.3 5.2 4.4 2.3 1.4 52.7 PESHAWAR 1. Kohler (H-W-W) 1.55 1.61 3.07 4.59 7.64 8.61 7.26 6.32 5.74 4.22 2.68 1.57 54.86 2. Kohler (Brunt) 1.26 1.24 2.45 3.87 6.83 7.88 6.66 5.63 5.15 4.00 2.30 1.33 48.60 3. Penman .91 1.14 2.47 3.63 6.37 6.17 6.75 5.93 4.24 2.91 1.28 .84 42.64 4. Thornthwaite 48.5 5. Rohwer Recommended 1.3 1.3 2.5 3.8 6.5 7.4 6.5 5.6 4.9 3.7 2.2 1.3 47.0 QUETTA 1. Kohler C-I-W-W) 1.46 1.71 3.17 5.07 7.37 8.09 8.29 7.69 6.34 4.72 2.87 1.70 58.48 2. Kohler (Brunt) 1.11 1.30 2.54 4.18 6.41 7.27 7.46 6.89 5.87 4.24 2.46 1.40 51.13 3. Penman .87 1.16 2.47 3.74 6.00 6.65 6.97 6.20 4.18 2.84 1.35 .91 43.34 4. Thornthwaite .24 .39 1.46 2.60 4.06 5.16 5.68 5.19 3.35 1.81 .83 .43 31.20 5. Rohwer .98 1.21 2.37 3.72 5.71 7.10 6.62 5.57 4.49 3.13 2.01 1.22 44.13 Recommended 1.2 1.4 2.6 4.2 6.2 6.9 7.1 6.6 5.5 4.0 2.4 1.4 49.5 411



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Chapter 4 with large public interest, public resources, or regulatory responsibilities. The Corporate type is chosen for programs of a commercial character or commercial potential. With these, there may be a sharing of control with private investors. A venture of a different type was the creation of the Ghulam Mohammad Barrage Colonization Project. Here there was a direct delegation of certain departmental powers together with greater freedom on personnel and fiscal matters to a project committee and a project director. The corporate or authority form was not used. This brief summary should be sufficient to establish that the government is responsive and resourceful when a development program calls for special action. The front lines of government have also received considerable attention. A provincial survey commission has outlined a major program of reform. As a result there has been much delegation of Departmental responsibilities to regional and field offices. Also there has been increased delegation to the Commissioners and Deputy Commissioners, aimed toward strengthening their coordination role and increasing their participation in development. A most fundamental reform has been the launching of the Basic Democracies Movement. Progress in public administration training has been supported by substantial technical assistance. In addition to the special entrance academies for the public service, there are now two Village Developement Academies, three National Institutes of Public Administration, which are providing inservice training presently at the middle management level, and an Administrative Staff College with a focus on senior officials. The government has announced that training in the appropriate school will become a condition for retention of rank and for promotion. There is also a program of training abroad for selected officers. The Administrative Environment of Project Operations The pattern of the Government of Pakistan assigns to the center special responsibility for policy, planning and financing. In turn the Provincial Governments generally are associated with the execution of programs. Our inquiry concentrated on the activities of the Province of West Pakistan. However,, we were privileged to have extensive discussions with representatives of key ministries at the Center. These included the ministries concerned with reclamation-the Ministry of Fuel, Power and Natural Resources and the Ministry of Food and Agriculture. Also at the Center are 1712



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Chapter 7 The publication of two reports(23) (24) in 1962 on the operation of tubewell projects in Rechna Doab (Project No. 1) provides an opportunity for the first comprehensive assessment of the efficacy of tubewells in lowering water tables. Tubewells have been installed in Rechna Doab in twelve units of various sizes over the period 1954-1962. Nearly complete data for the year 1961-1962 are available for all of the units. These are summarized in Table 7.3. It should be emphasized that one year's record may not be typical of longtime operations. Factors such as annual precipitation, efficiencies of tube well operation, acreages of crops planted during both seasons, and efficiency of use of the pumped water may not be representative. Yet, in the absence of longer records, these data for an area exceeding 1,200,000 acres served by more than 1700 tubewells provide a good indication of what can be anticipated in the operation of large-scale tubewell installations. For analytical purposes the twelve tubewell units have been organized into three groups, as shown in Table 7.3. Group One tubewells are early installations, Group Two tubewells were installed during 1961, and Group Three tubewells were installed during 1962. Group One Tubewells. These early tubewell installations served smaller areas than later units and often the wells failed to yield as much water as initially expected. For the four units combined, the water table declined only 0.73 foot for a unit pumpage of 1.41 feet of water over the gross area. Dividing these values yields a ratio of 0.52, indicating a decline in the water table of 0.52 foot for each foot of water pumped over the area. All of these values are markedly less than later tubewell installations. Differences can largely be attributed to reduced pumping rates and to smaller operating units. It is interesting to note that the water table in the Jaranwala Unit declined only 0.60 foot as compared with an average rate of 1.5 feet per -( year in the two previous years. A matter of concern is the fact that the yield of tubewells in the Chuharkana Unit has decreased 26 percent in eight years, while wells in the Pindi Bhattian Unit lost 28 percent of their capacity in three years. Presumably these losses resulted from well designs and construction which (23)Directorate of Land Reclamation, Progress of reclamation in soil reclamation schemes of Project Number One (Rechna Doab), West Pakistan, 1962. (24)WAPDA, Progress Report for the operation of tubewells under Salinity Control and Reclamation Project Number One for the period September, 1961, to September, 1962, West Pakistan, 1962. 317



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1000 III I I I 500 100 -50 C 0 o 3 0 a • 2 10 0 S 5 I I I I I I I 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 Average Pumping Rate, cf/sf/yr MULTIWELL MODEL: DRAWDOWN vs. PUMPING RATE FIGURE 7.26 362



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Summary will reduce the average pumping rate during the year, but the maximum pumping rates are not very much affected, because a principal advantage of the tubewells is that they are able to provide water during seasons of loW canal flow. Organization and Management The problem, central to all others, of organization and management is discussed in Chapter 4. We recommend that the Government of West Pakistan mobilize for agricultural development in the project areas around the legal powers already given to its Soil Reclamation Board. The Board should be reconstituted and perhaps renamed-for example, the Land and Water Development Board. Its chairman should be a senior official of the rank of Additional Chief Secretary, and its members should include the Secretary of Irrigation, the Secretary of Agriculture, the Chairman of the Water and Power Development Authority of West Pakistan (WAPDA), and the Chairman of the Agricultural Development Corporation (ADO). To these might be added the Secretary of Labor and Cooperatives, the Secretary for Local Government and Basic Democracies, and a Finance Member. The Board should report to the Minister of Agrigulture, Food, and Irrigation, and it should have full powers to delegate to the Project Director in each Project area. The Board should be generous in delegating to the Project Director. He must have authority to supervise and direct the Project personnel, including seconded officers from the Departments of Irrigation and Agriculture and from WAPDA and ADC. He must be able to make firm agreements for necessary services with these agencies, as well as with the Department of Cooperatives and the Agricultural Development Bank. Within the Project area, the organization under the Project Director should include staffs for Land and Water Planning, Records and Reporting, and Administration and Supply. There should be services for maintenance and operation of tubewells, water distribution and assessments, reclamation, extension, supervision of credit and marketing facilities, supervision of fertilizer and other supply distribution, in-service training, and research and experimentation. We estimate very tentatively that the number of technically trained senior and junior officers in the first project area should be 60 and 290, respectively. Most of the junior officers would be directly concerned with various aspects of agriculture and they should have been trained insofar as possible, at the agricultural college level. Because of the present shortage of 16



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Mehta, D., and Adyalkar, D. G., Tarai and Bhabar zones of India along the Himalayan foothills as potential ground water reservoirs: Econ. Geol., v. 57, p. 367-376, 1962. Memon, M. M., Hyderabad, a geographical appraisal: Pakistan Geographical Review, v. XIV, no. 2, p. 1-9, 1959. ----Manchar Lake: Pakistan Geographical Review, v. 16, no. 2, p. 46-56, 1961. Michel, Aloys Arthur, The Kabul, Kunduz, and Helmand Valleys and the national economy of Afghanistan: National Academy of Sciences, National Research Council, Foreign field research program, Office of Naval Research, Washington, D. C., Report no. 5, 1959. Moldenhauer, W. C., and Wischmeier, W. H., Soil and water losses and infiltration rates on Ida silt loam as influenced by cropping systems, tillage practices and rainfall characteristics: Soil Science Society of America, Proceedings, 24 (5), p. 409-413, September-October, 1960. Muckel, Dean C., Replenishment of ground water supplies by artificial means: Washington, U.S. Govt. Print. Off., 51 p. (U.S. Dept. of Agriculture Technical Bulletin no. 1195) 1959. Mueenuddin, G., Indus waters treaty negotiations: Indus, v. 1, no. 9, p. 4-8, October, 1960. Myers, Lloyd E., Conservation of irrigation water supplies in arid climates: n.p., 6 p., 1960. Paper presented at Arid-Land Symposium, University of Wyoming, Laramie, 1959. Reprint from Bulletin 367, Wyoming Agricultural Experiment Station, May, 1960. Namken, L. N., and Lemon, E. R., Field studies of internal moisture relations of the corn plant: Agronomy Journal, 52, p. 643-646, 1960. Naqvi, Tasawar Husain, Waterlogging and salinity in Indus Basin, Dawn, Karachi, March 23, 1961. Nixon, Paul R., and Lawless, G. Paul, Translocation of moisture with time in unsaturated soil profiles: Journal of Geophysical Research, 65 (2), p. 655-661, February, 1960. Ogata, Gen., and Richards, L. A., Water content changes following irrigation of bare-field soil that is protected from evaporation: Soil Science Society of America, Proceedings, 21 (4), p. 355-356, July-August, 1957. 393



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Table 5.18 Linear Programming Model (IA) for Khairpur Feeder West Crop and Livestock Activities Orchards Constraints Cotton Sorghum Summer Rice Wheat Oilseeds Winter Sugarcane (including Winter Gram Cows Bullocks Supplies of Resources Fodder Vegetables Fodder forests) Vegetables or other restraints October Water 0.431 0.22 0.43 0.43 0.43 0.43 0.43 0.22 69,900. Acre feet. November Water .14 0.28 .28 .28 .28 .28 .28 .28 <69,800. Acre feet. December Water .20 .20 .20 .20 .20 .20 .20 a.56,700. Acre feet. January Water .21 .21 .21 .21 .21 .21 .21 <27,900. Acre feet. February Water .27 .14 .27 .27 .27 .27 .27 <58,900. Acre feet. March Water .43 .43 .43 .43 .43 .22 .<57,300. Acre feet. April Water 0.57 0.57 .28 .28 .57 .57 Z50,700. Acre feet. May Water .74 .74 .37 .74 0.74 .74 .74 <57,100. Acre feet. June Water .70 .70 .70 .70 .80 .70 .70 <67,400. Acre feet. July Water .60 .60 .60 .60 .78 .60 .60 <79,300. Acre feet. August Water .55 .55 .55 .55 .69 .55 .55 <84,000. Acre feet. o September Water .53 .26 .53 .53 .53 .13 .53 .53 <66,600. Acre feet. Kharif Land 1.002 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 258,900. acres. Rabi Land 1.00 1.00 1.40 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 <258,900. acres. Summer Fodder 36.004 -10".005 -10.00 >0.0 maunds T.D.N. Winter Fodder 45.00 -10.00 -10.00 >0.0 maunds T.D.N. Straw 24.00 9.00 5.00 1.00 13.00 1.00 -20.00 -20.00 >0.0 maunds T.D.N. Bullocks -.133 -.13 -.13 -.13 -.13 -.13 -.13 -.13 -.13 -.13 -.13 -.13 1.00 >0.0 head. Cows 1.00 -.20 >0.0 head. Net Value Per Acre or Animal (rupees) 142 0 56 155 99 120 135 0 455 320 155 77 1956 0 Source: Derived from Table 5.15, 5.16 and 5.17. 'Acre feet of October water required per acre of cotton. 2Acre of kharif land required per acre of cotton. 3H1ead of bullock required per acre of cotton (negative sign implies use of intermediate product). 4Maunds T.D.N. supplied per acre of summer fodder. 5Maunds T.D.N. summer fodder required annually by one cow. 613 maunds milk per cow per year at Rs 15. per maund. In addition, any young stock above bullock requirements valued for meat at Rs 50/animal unit.



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Table 6.1 Vegetable Crops of the Irrigated Arid Valleys of California-Continued Spacing of Crop AdaptaPounds seed Distance apart plants in Average yield bility per acre of rows, inches row, inches per acre Mustard (for greens) Good 2 36 4-12 Okra Excel. 6-8 36 12-24 300 lugs Onions (dry) Excel. 4 36-42 double 2-4 250-500 sks. 2 per acre to 36-42 double 4 2 50-500 sks. be planted Onions Excel. 15 24-32 not thinned 200-300 (bunching) Parsley Good 3 36 double 8 100-150 crates Parsnips Good 3 36 double 4 125 crates Peas Good 60-80 36 double 2-4 200-400 lugs (21 lbs) 25-40 72 2-4 200-400 lugs Peppers Excel. 2-3 36-40 12-16 8,000-16000 lbs. Pimiento Good 2 36 24 Peppers (hot) Good 4-6 36 10-14 200-300 lugs Potatoes Poor 1,000-1400 36 15 10,000 lbs. Pumpkins Good 3 72-96 24-48 15 tons Radishes Good 10 36 double 1 Roselle Good 3-5 72 24-36 Salsify Good 8 36 double 4 Spinach Good 15 36 double 3-6 200 crates 18 single Squash Excel. 3 48 36 800-1,000 flats (summer) Squash Good 3 72-84 24-36 (winter) Sweet Potatoes Good 40 lbs pota36 12-15 5-8 tons toes: 14,520 plts. Swiss Chard Good 8-10 36 12 Tomatoes Good 1 72 12 1,000-1500 lugs (market) Tomatoes Good 11 72 12-18 10 tons Turnips Good 3 36 double 3-4 500 crates Watermelons Excel. 1-2 72-96 3 7-12 tons Source: N. L. McFarlane (et. al.) California Desert Agriqulture, California Experiment Station Circular No. 464. 253



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.Chapter 8 of years. Furthermore, the field staff of farm planners are in an excellent position to recommend specific areas of needed research. While the farm planning technique has many features in its favor, it must be judged against alternative ways of transmitting and receiving information. In this connection, a host of questions need to be answered: What are the maximum and optimal numbers of farms a planner can handle? Will farmers have sufficient "faith" in the planner to accept his suggestions, or, similarly, how many farm visits are necessary before the farmer will "accept" the planner? How should the operating and control units be selected? What, and how fast, is the spread-effect of changes made on "planned" farms into nearby, but "non-budgeted", farms ? Should cursory records be kept on many farms, or should detailed records be recorded on a smaller number? What is the cost of obtaining information, and the returns from transmitting information through farm planning, and how do these compare with other techniques? What are the staffing and training problems, and does the planning approach make maximum use of scarce human resources and talents in the country? What are the problems of keeping accounts and farm plans in areas of low literacy? This is by no means an exhaustive list, but it does give an indication of the types of questions which need to be answered. The "Comilla" approach represents a different technique for the transfer of information to farmers. Since this experience has been very well documented, (3) it is necessary to point out only a few of its most important aspects. A. major feature of Comilla is the ThanaTrainingCenter, an applied research and teaching unit which serves the ten-square-mile experimental unit. The basic method has been to organize farmers into co-operative associations at the village level, and to have leaders of the villages make regular visits to the Center for training. There, they receive instruction in record keeping and farm management, and are able to view experimental projects (3) See for example, The Journal of the Pakistan Academy for Village Development, Comilla, and A New Rural Co-operative System for Comilla Thana. 368



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Chapter 3 of the farmers. The mere provision of the physical factors of production will not ensure their trial and adoption. Technical information must also be transferred. We believe that for this task, effective field agents are an essential element of our plan. Because they are essential, we recommend that the field agents concern themselves primarily with agriculture. The initial technical tasks are relatively simple, but they will grow more complex as the projects develop. The field agents should be trained during their service so that their competence increases with the complexity of the task. Field experience should be augmented by intensive short courses. This is a full time job. If this group of workers is also charged with community development responsibility, they will neither gain specialized knowledge nor have time for their main task. Great flexibility should be provided in the schedule of activities for the field agents in the first few project areas. Different approaches should be used to test quickly the efficacy of varying systems. Considerable experimentation needs to be done in sub -units of a project area to work out the optimal number of field agents. The village is an attraaive base of operation for a field agent. With a resident agricultural worker in the village, contact with the farmers will be much more frequent than on a visiting basis. Demonstration plots, centrally located, as well as on the land of cooperating farmers should form an integral part of the agents' work. Difficulties of transportation as well as custom severely limit the exposure of farmers to demonstrations away from the village. Referring again to the Comilla Project in East Pakistan, 85 percent of the farmers regularly observed demonstrations and trials in their own village, while only 5 percent regularly saw the demonstrations at the agricultural office and farm. The distance to the farm was only 3 miles from the village. Because of the small size and fragmentation of holdings, it would be physically very difficult to pattern the field agent's work entirely on contacts with farmers in their fields. To arrange field visits, to prepare cropping plans, to work out certification of credit applications -all will require ease of contact with the farmers. If possible, field agents should be selected from among those who have grown up on a farm, preferably in the general area where they will work. The feel of the soil, the command to a bullock, the harvest in good years and bad years should be part of their background. The rapid enlistment of peasant farmers in a change from traditional practice to intensive agriculture is obviously difficult, but some recent 151



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Appendix A.5 Appraisal of the Estimates All these estimates are based on fragmentary and often imprecise data, and on crude assumptions. They should not, therefore, be regarded as being by any means accurate, although they are as accurate as we could make them. They were carried out so elaborately not only because of the value of the results in evaluating the proposed program of agricultural development but in large part to explore and illustrate the kind of calculations that appear to be valuable in planning development programs and agricultural resource allocations. As better data become available in conjunction with the execution of the program, correspondingly better estimates can be made of water response curves, effects of fertilization, the economic value of the program, and efficient cropping patterns. The critical estimates to be made are those of the yields attainable when saturating supplies of water are provided, denoted by M. Inspection of Table A.5.1 shows an encouraging consistency in those estimates. There is some tendency, however, for the estimate of M to move inversely to the supply of water available. This bias, if it exists, is probably due to the fact that the quadratic response curve assumed is too simple and does not flatten out quickly enough near its peak.(7) This suspected bias is mild, however, and is probably worth accepting in return for the very substantial computational advantages of the quadratic function. 'The estimated maximum yields for most crops are higher for the old canals than for the newer ones, which accords with general impressions of the productivity of the different regions of the Punjab. Separate estimates were made for each crop year and canal system, and there was no attempt to pool data from different years and regions, although that would have been efficient from a statistical point of view, for two reasons, First, there are probably consistent differences in productivity among canal -systems, so that averaging over canals would be meaningless. Second, we had so few years--two Kharif seasons and three Rabis for each canal-that it was felt to be more informative to make independent estimates for the years, so that their consistency could be appraised, than to make a pooled estimate for which no check data existed. (7) The Kharif data for the Lower Bani Doab Canal are peculiar in several respects. There was nearly a foot more water available in 1957 than in 1956, but yields were scarcely higher. There may be an error in the data that contributed largely to the discrepancy in our estimates of M. 423



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Table 1.10.1 Average Agricultural Production in Districts with Partial Canal Trrigation in the Former Punjab 1j Ten years, frame 1949-50 to 1958-59 Crop G~oss area sown Yield Value Yield Value 100 acres % 100 tons 106 Rs .per acre per acre lbs. Rs Food Grains Rice (cleaned) .10 5.5 .02 8 4.8 585 71 Wheat .65 36.3 .20 64 38.6" 690 99 Barley .02 1.2 .01 1 0.6 585 63 Jowar (sorghum) .20 11.3 .03 10 6.0 385 48 Bajra (millet) .22 12.1 .04 11 6.6 375 50 Maize (corn) .02 1.1 .01 2 1.2 800 108 Total Food Grains 1.21 67.5 .31 96 57.8 570 79 Other Food Crops Gram (chick peas) .12 6.6 .02 7 4.2 455 60 Other pulses (legumes) .09 4.8 (.01) (4; 2.4 (335) (45) Oil seeds .04 2.5 < 005 3 1.8 230 67 Cotton seed same as cotton .01 10 6.0 335 110 Cane sugar (raw sugar) .02 1.3 .03 12 7.2 2,500 505 Fruits 0 0 0 0 --Vegetables and other crops .04 2.4 -(9) 5.3 -(200) Fibers Cotton .09 5.0 .01 5 3.0 165 55 Fodder .18 9.7 (1.29) (17) 10.5 (16,460) (100) Tobacco e 005 0.2 1.005 3 1.8 615 710 Total 1.80 100 O.40(2) 166 100 92 Total, less fodder, fruits, vegetables, and other 1.58 87.9 140 84.4 89 Canal Irrigated Area .81 44.9 (1) Districts of D. G. Khan and Gujrat. (2) Less fodder. For source of data, see Table 1.7. Figures in parentheses are our own estimates.



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Table 5.8 IncLreases in Yield and Value of Wheat Cros from Use of Nitrogen and Phosphate Fertilizer Amount of Increase in Value of Cost of Net Rate of Plant Nutrient Yield Increased Fertilizer Increase Profit N P 0 maunds/ Yield Rs/acre in Value (%) lb/acre lb are acre Rs/acre Rs/acre 30 -4.0 51 14 37 250 60 -4.8 61 28 33 120 30 30 6.7 85 28 57 200 60 30 9.0 115 43 72 170 30 0O 7.9 101 43 58 120 60 60 9.5 121 57 64 110 Source: See text. 220



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Table 1.5.1 Approximate Average Value of Pakistan Exports and Imports, 1959-61 Millions of dollars West Pakistan East Pakistan Total Total foreign exports 128 243 371 Foreign agricultural exports 74 173 247 Foreign exports of jute and cotton manufactured products 34 58 92 Agricultural exports plus exports of jute and cotton manufactured products 108 231 339 Other foreign exports 20 12 32 Total. imports 450 295 745 Foreign imports 385 155 540 Imports from other Wing 65 140 205 Total agricultural imports 140 105 245 Foreign agricultural imports# 110 50 160 Agricultural imports from other Wing 30 55 85 Imports of jute and cotton manufactured products from other Wing 15 55 70 #-About 60 percent through U.S. Government in accordance with U.S. Public Law 480. Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Foreign Agricultural Service (Kindly supplied us by Mr. Stuart Lerner); also in part from Foreign Trade Studies of Pakistan, Government of Pakistan, Central Statistical Office, 1960. 73



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1c00Y Dr. P. E. HL~2k~ REPORT ON LAND AND WATER DEVELOPMENT IN THE INDUS PLAIN By THE, WHITE HOUSE-DEPARTMENT OF INTERIOR PANEL ON WATERLOGGING AND SALINITY. IN WEST PAKISTAN The White House Wash ington, D. C. January, 1964



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200 10.4 Lyallpur 180 160 9 ntgomery 12.6 w eMultan 140 Shikhupura w 25. 40.6 w eG ranwala g 98 3120 2hahpur 5.0Gujrat 25.0Muza fargarh 100 80 0 1 20 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 () Averageof Attock, Jhelum, Mianwali, Rawalpindi, Sialkot, and D. 1. Khan PERCENT OF AREA IRRIGATED Figure 1.1 Relation of agricultural yield to percent of canal-irrigated area in the Former Punjab. Figures byeachdistrict give percent of cultivated area that has been severely damaged by salination and waterlogging



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Chapter 7 is not possible now to estimate pump capacity factors with precision. In our cost analysis we assumed that the average annual rate of pumping would be fifty percent of pumping capacity in each project area. (5) There is uncertainty as to the degree of salinity of the ground water in many areas, and it is not possible to predict accurately the amount of saline water that can be diluted with surface water and used in irrigation, and the amount that must be exported. Our analysis of the cost of salt-export wells and conveyance channels is based upon predications made in the Water Budget in which 2/ 3 of mined water in the saline area is used for crops and 1/ 3 exported to waste lagoons or desert areas. (6) Not all the pumps used for water supply in a project need be large deep-well pumps. In the earlier projects it will be possible to use small, shallow, skimming wells for recovery of recharge-water in the fringe areas around the mined zones. This can be done during the interim period when project areas are not contiguous. Also after completion of all projects, small wells may be used in peripheral areas and in places near major recharge sources such as in the riverain lands.. where the water table will remain at comparatively shallow depths. Our cost analysis was based upon deep mining wells and no allowance was made for possible economies associated with inexpensive, small, skimming wells even though it isConceivable that in some projects a substantial water supply may be obtained from these. (7) A considerable amount of uncertainty is involved in estimating the costs of canal remodeling and other modifications of the distribution system that are needed to provide for proper mixing of pumped and surface water for quality control of water applied to crops and to provide for redistribution of flow to different regions. The cost of revamping for additional capacity will be high when if. necessity the canals have to be kept in operation. Moreover, canal enlargement and installation of more check structures for new gravity service channels will bring problems of siltation. The severity of these cannot be closely estimated and therefore maintenance costs cannot be predicted with accuracy. It seems probable that siltation problems will be mitigated to a significant extent with construction of the Settlement Plan dams. Another related uncertainty arises from the lack of sufficiently detailed data pertaining to canal silt-load parameters and soil properties in the areas near canals; it is difficult to estimate precisely the proper distance to set mining wells from canals and distributaries. If these are located too close to canals, uneconomic recycling of pumped water will occur. If they are located too far from existing distribution channels, the cost of new feeder channels becomes a large item of expense. It is pertinent to note, however, that a high degree of flexibility as to tubewell location inheres in our plan because a large number of wells for each project will be located outside the area of intensive irrigation. More over construction of wells in a project.can be, phased so that well installations 321



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Chapter 4 government has continuously pressed for reform. At least twenty commissions have been appointed. There are many reports and more to come. The stimulating motivation appears to be more effective mobilization of resources for social and'economic development. One goal of reform is to strengthen the civil service systems. Perhaps indicative of one line of progress was the creation of an "Economic Pool". This action recognized service needs of the Ministries of Finance, Commerce and Industries and sought to provide officers with general administrative qualifications as well as training in economic policies, procedures and practices. Officers are carefully selected from several of the services of the government, given special training, and in effect are launched upon a new career service. But major action on the civil service awaits action on a report, of a special Commission of Pay and Service, chaired by a distinguished Justice of the Supreme Court. Basically, the need is for adjustment to a new age of science and technology, through increasing scientific and technical orientation for the generalist, and through sharing of generalist know-how and career opportunities with the technical and professional officers. Another reform effort has sought to expedite government transactions. The Secretariat System has been under scrutiny. One target has been the "noting system". A first attack has been the appointment of Section Officers with some power to make decisions and answer correspondence. This does shorten the processing. The problem of sanctions has been met partially through the detail of financial officers to key points to facilitate action. Here the success varies with the performance of the individuals assigned. The sustained attention of an adequate staff for organization and methods is the ultimate solution for needed procedural reforms. Periodically the Government has been confronted with a national development project or program that is considered beyond the'capacity of a traditional department--perhaps because of size, urgency or special technological content. Under such circumstances the Government has not hesitated to by-pass the personnel, fiscal and procedural limitations of the departments and to move to a new instrumentality. These new agenciesnearly 30 in number-have been of an authority or corporate character. They have considerable autonomy, especially with respect to personnel and budgetary controls. On the other hand, they are subject to project review. They tie into the Government through a Ministry or Department. And the Government invariably has a direct right of intervention with respect to Board Membership and directly or indirectly as to basic policies. The Authority type of organization is utilized when the functions are associated 171



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Chapter 7 (2) Parameters A = concentration of recharge water in saline area. (mg/liter) B = fraction of tubewell water to be exported to prevent salt build-up. bA = annual gross benefits on a million acre tract. (millions of rupees per year) C = concentration of applied irrigation water (mixed canal and pumped water) in the saline area. (mg/liter) CMAX = maximum allowable concentration of applied irrigation water in the saline area. (mg/liter) Ce= annual cost of exporting of saline water. (millions of rupees per year/maf per year) Cm = annual cost of increasing capacity of canals into saline area. (millions of rupees per year/maf per year) Cw = annual cost of tubewell water. (millions of rupees per year/maf p year) (includes power, maintenance and operation and amortized cost of wells, appurtenances and electrification); see Appendix Report "Indus Basin Studies" Harvard Water Resources Group, 1963 for a discussion of costs. = average rate of irrigation, in acre feet per acre, per year in the non-saline area. In most of the computations this figure was set at 3.5 feet/yr (3.9 feet per year including effective rain) which is believed to be close to the optimal rate of water application (including requirements for leaching) during the first level of development. kA= average rate of irrigation, in acre feet per acre per year in the saline area. In most computations, Awas set at 3.5 feet per year. The parameter k, where k>l, takes into account the additional amount of water needed to offset the adverse effects of salinity on plant growth (See Chapter 2). It is a function of the salinity of the mixture of canal and pumped water applied to crops. For example, when this concentration is 2000 ppm, the value of k was taken to be 1.25. F = ratio of the unit cost of export to the unit cost of tubewell water (Ce:Cw). L = ratio of gross benefits per million acre tract per year to the unit cost of tubewell water (bA:Cw), (ft per year). M = ratio of the unit cost of canals in the saline area to the unit cost of tubewell water (Cm:Cw). N = net benefits. (millions of rupees per year per million acres). NB = ratio of net benefits to unit cost of tubewell water (N:Cw). R = effective rainfall. (maf/yr) Average value for the Former Punjab and Bahawalpur, 5.2 inches per year.



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Chapter 1 Effect of Irrigation Compared to rainfall, canal irrigation gives an assured and fairly well-regulated supply of water for agriculture. The times of water application can be adjusted to be of benefit for planting, early growth, and maturing of the crops. It should be expected, therefore, that a direct correlation would exist in West Pakistan, as elsewhere, between the percentage of sown land under canal irrigation in the different agricultural districts and average yields per acre. That this correlation exists is shown in Figure 1, but the variation between irrigated and non-irrigated lands is smaller than in many other regions of the world. In the Lyallpur District, where somewhat more than 100 percent (12) of the planted acre age is irrigated each year by canals, the value per acre of plant crops is Rs 185. Montgomery and Multan also have about 100 percent canal irrigation of the gross planted area, and show the second and third highest yields per acre, Rs 155 and Rs 144. The yields per aere diminish as the percentage of eanal irrigation decreases. In Gujrat and D. G. Khan, the percentage of canal irrigation is about 45 percent, and the yields per acre are, respectively, Rs 100 and Rs 70. The yields for these two Districts average slightly more than those for the dry-farmed lands of the northern Former Punjab. The mean amount of water available in these dry-farmed Districts is larger than in the irrigated lands to the south, but nearly all of it comes from variable and uncertain rainfall. In some of the northern areas, particularly in Sialkot, rain is supplemented by water from Persian Wells, and yields are considerably higher than in the solely rain-fed regions. Livestock and Poultry In 1960, the estimated livestock population of West Pakistan included: 9 million cattle; 6.5 million water buffaloes; 12 million sheep and goats; and 7 million chickens. If estimates (13) made for northern Former Khairpur can be extrapolated to the entire Province, about 17 percent of the cattle and 49 percent of the buffaloes are milk cows. Nearly half the cattle are working bullocks; the remainder, about a third of the total population, are young animals (less, than three years old) or cows without calves. Only two percent of the buffaloes are mature males, while about 45 percent are young animals or barren cows. (12) Complete double cropping is considered to be 200 percent utilization. (13) Hunting Technical Services: "Khairpur Report," 1962. 42



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Chapter 1 and extends for 20 miles into east central Thal Doab. About half of Shahpur (3.1 million acres) is in Thal, and the rest lies in central Chaj Doab. Gujrat District (1.5 million acres) covers northeastern Chaj. Mianwali (3.4 million acres) and Muzaffargarh (3.6 million acres) make up the northwestern and southern parts of Thal Doab. Beyond the Indus, opposite Mianwali, lies Dera Ismaili Khan District (2.2 million acres), and to the south, Dera Ghazi Khan (3.5 million acres of this District are reported in the agricultural statistics; the remainder is sparsely settled and statistics are not collected). Only small parts of these two Districts are within the flood plain of the Indus; the remainder consists of piedmont slopes formed by the torrents of the Sulaiman Range. Three Districts on the left bank of the Sutlej make up the former state of Bahawalpur. From north to south, these and their reported acreages are: Bahawalnager (1.7 million reported acres); Bahawalpur (1.2 million reported acres); and Rahimyar Khan (1.7 million reported acres). The southern parts of these Districts lie in the Thar Desert, and are so thinly settled that they are not reported in the agricultural statistics. There are two Divisions and ten Districts in the Former Sind (including the former state of Khairpur). From north to south on the right bank of the Indus lie Jacobabad (1.9 million acres); Larkana (1.5 million reported acres); and Dadu (3.5 million reported acres). The first two are in Khairpur Division, together with the left bank Districts of Khairpur (1.3 million reported acres), Sukkur (3.5 million acres), and Nawabshah (1.7 million acres). Dadu District is in Hyderabad Division (central and southern Sind), as are the left bank Districts of Sanghar (2.6 million acres), Tharparkar (6.8 million reported acres), and Hyderabad (2.85 million reported acres). The southernmost District in Hyderabad Division is Thatta (5.0 million acres), which extends on both banks of the Indus into the tidal marshes and flats bordering the Arabian Sea. Nearly half of Sukkur, Sanghar, and Tharparkar Districts lies in the Thar Desert and is not properly a part of the Indus Plain. Similarly, nearly a million acres of Dadu District lie outside the area of alluvial deposits laid down by the Indus. Adjoining the Indus Plain on the north are three upland Districts that we have included in several of our statistical tables; Jhelum (1.8 million acres); Rawalpindi (1.3 million acres); and Attock (now called Campbellpur) (2.7 million acres). Land Forms Of the nearly fifty million acres in the Indus Plain, one or two million are occupied by river channels and are normally covered with fresh water. The tidal and salt flats of the Indus delta contain another two million acres. 23



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Chapter 7 Consider now the fate of a salt ion that has just reached the tubewell. It may be passed out of the system (y-z) in the drains or it may be returned to the watercourse to mix with the surface water. If, say, four-fifths of the pump effluent is recirculated to the crops, then the probability is 0.20 that the molecule will leave the system. The probability it will be recycled to say stream tube No. 7 is 0.80/ 10 = 0.08 (8 percent). If it goes to the first stream tube, it will soon reach the pump and again be subjected to the same random routing process. If it happens to go to the last stream tube, which is very large, it will be long delayed in the aquifer before the process is repeated. All this time new salt is entering the system in the canal and being routed in a similar way. Some salt particles are eliminated after one pass, others are recycled many times -the average number of passes depends upon the proportion of the tubewell effluent routed to the drainage system. A systematic procedure for handling this stochastic process by matrix algebra was developed(18) and used for determining the flux of salt at all points in the aquifer and in the tubewell effluent for various patterns of initial salt concentrations and inflow. Of particular interest from a practical viewpoint is the history of salt concentration in the applied irrigation water tubewell effluent diluted with canal water. The salt concentration versus time relationship was found to be a complicated function of the various tubewell design and operation parameters and the initial conditions relating to salt location in the system. Salt build -up depends primarily on six parameters: (.1) well spacing; (2) well depth; (3) percentage of tubewell effluent routed to drains; (4) pumping rate; (5) initial salt concentration in the ground water; and (6) initial concentration of salt in the soil above the aquifer. The first four of these are engineering choice variables, that is, for a particular installation they can be adjusted to control the salt build-up. The remaining two parameters are exogenously fixed by nature and by the past use of the tubewell project area. Each of the six parameters was investigated at two levels so that a total of 26 = 64 computer runs were made. The matrix multiplication was carried forward by the computer at a high speed and the history curves of salt build -up were computed in some runs for periods greater than a thousand years. The results for sixteen of the runs are shown in Figures 7.18 and 7.19: The initial concentration of surface soil salt was zero in the first figure and 60 tons per acre in the second figure (average value for large areas of saline soil in the Former Punjab and Bahawalpur). Results of runs are (18)Appendix Report, Harvard Water Resources Group, 1963. 304



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Table 1. 16 Estimated 1960 Gross Farm Income Per Capita and Per Farm Worker in Parts of West Pakistan Value (3) of Esti-(2) agriGross average mated cultural .value male production produced -rupees Rural(l) farm Billions per Region population workers of per agricultural millions of persons rupees capita worker Canal-irrigated Districts of Former Punjab 12.04 1.6 2.20 183 1420 Districts or Regions with minor or no canal irrigation in Former Punjab and NWFP 6.11 .8 .80 131 1000 Former Bahawalpur 2.22 .3 .46 207 1540 Former Sind 5.17 .6 1.08 209 1660 Total 25.54 3.3 4.54 178 1340 (1) From Table 1.4. (2) The number of agricultural workers was estimated to be half the number of males between 15 and 59 years old living in rural areas. According to the 1961 census, 49.7 percent of the rural'population of West Pakistan is between 15 and 59, and 52 percent of this age group is male, giving an estimated 13 percent as the proportion of farm workers to the rural population. In Pakistan, Muslim tradition strongly inhibits women from working in the farm fields. Although boys younger than 15 assist in cultivation, they cannot be considered as full-fledged farm workers. The normal upper age of farm employment is not known, but the number of persons in the upper age brackets is small. (3) Values for agricultural production were computed from Tables 1.8 through 1.11.2, which give the average crop production over the 10 years from 1949-50 to 1958-59, with the following corrections: The estimated value of the fodder crop was first subtracted from the total value of the agricultural production in each region given in these tables. The remainder was multiplied by 1. 11 to account for the estimated increase in value of agricultural production from 1954 to 1960. The product was then multiplied by 1.27 to account for the estimated value of livestock production. These percent estimates are based on tabular data in the Government of Pakistan Budget for 1961-62, Economic Survey and Statistics; April 1960 -March 1961 (Karachi, 1961). According to these data the total value of principal crops at constant prices over the three year period from 195859 to 1960-61 was 10 percent higher than the ten year average for 1949-50 to 1958-59. The value of livestock production was 27 percent of the value of major and minor crops. 89



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3500 r 1111tI I 1111I II 11 INITIAL GROUND IATER CONC. tOO0ppmn w 60T /ACRE -SALT ON SURFACE 1 CONCENTRATION OF CANAL WATER-25 r.,I 4O1m 3000 E 25 Q2000 71 -. 50'No. 7 CA6D 10%.'U 1500A -::1 4o.99 00I 1 10 100 1000 10,000 YEARS FIG. 7.19 SALT CONCENTRATION OF APPLIED IRRIGATION WATER



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India Central Board of Irrigation, Notes on waterlogging and land reclamation in the form of a questionaire: Simla, 41 p., 1938 (its Publication no. 17) For official use only. Indus Basin working party, Set no. 15 (Pakistan) Study 11-3 & 11-7, Statement A (6). Average rainfall in various sub-periods in inches: Lahore, 392 p., 1953. ----Withdrawals from the Indus River system, tabular statements prepared by India for the studies requested by the Indian designee; Study (1) (v): Statements (1) (v) A. Mean discharge by 10-day periods and months and the volume of withdrawals by months, for individual canals or canal systems, 1921-22 to 1945-46: Nagpur, Govt. Print., Madhya Pradesh, 440 p., 1953. Institute of Development Economics, Karachi, Pakistan, Annual report, 1960-61: Karachi, 28 p., 1961. ----------Monographs in the economics of development: Karachi (Pakistan), no. 1. A study of planning methodology with special reference to Pakistants second five year plan, by John C. H. Fei and Gustav Ranis, 27 p., 1960. no. 2. Towards the application of inter-regional input-output models to economic planning in Pakistan, by S. M. Naseem, 24 p., 1960. no. 3. Deficit financing in Pakistan, 1951-60, by Mahbubul Haq in collaboration with Miss Khadija Khanam, 68 p,, 1961. no. 4. A measure of inflation in Pakistan, 1951-60, 113 p., 1961. Interdepartmental Committee on Nutrition for National Defense, Manual for nutrition surveys: U.S. Govt. Print. Off., Washington, D. C., 160 p., May, 1957. International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Indus Basin development fund agreement: n.p., 1 v., 1960. Irrigation operation statement of the kharif crops on productive, unproductive and works for which neither capital nor revenue accounts are kept in West Pakistan, 1947, 1949, 1952-1957: Bahawalpur, manager, Govt. Print., West Pakistan, etc., 8 v. Irrigation operations of the rabi crops, on productive and unproductive irrigation works, 1951-52, 1957-58: Bahawalpur, Govt. Print. and Stationery, West Pakistan, etc., 8 v. Islam, M. A., Fertilizer use in East Pakistan: Dacca, East Pakistan Govt. Press, 31 p., 1960. Islam, S. R. (Pakistan Navy), The Indus submarine canyon: Pakistan Geographical Review, v. XIV, no. 1, p. 32-34, 1959. 389



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Chapter 1 Oil seeds are usually planted late in the Kharif season and harvested during Rabi. Because of their long growing seasons, sugarcane and cotton require much more water than any of the other crops. The very high temperatures during summer result in a high rate of evapotranspiration, and thus all Kharif crops demand more water than those grown in Rabi. Rice is especially water -demanding, because it must be grown in flooded fields. In this water -short country, it is natural, therefore, that where winter water is available the acreage devoted to Rabi crops is usually more than the Kharif acreage. Relative to evapotranspiration, however, the river waters are lower in winter than in summer (compare Tables 1.1.1 and 1.2); hence in the southern part of the plain (Former Sind) the Kharif acreage is much higher than the Rabi acreage. Cropping Pattern and Productivity There is a marked variation between agricultural regions in the proportions of land planted to different a-rops. In the most prosperous canal-irrigated Districts of the Former Punjab (Table 1.8), only about 44 percent of the total acreage is planted in food grains, and 35 percent is planted in cotton and fodder. Presumably much of the fodder in these relatively prosperous Districts is used for meat and milk production. Former Bahawalpur (Table 1.11) is the region of second highest production per acre. Here the proportion of food grains is less, and of cotton and fodder slightly more, than in the highly productive Districts of the Former Punjab. In general, the percentage of food grains increases and that of the cash crops -cotton and fodder(1) decreases as the productivity per acre diminishes. In areas Of low productivity the farmer must struggle for a bare subsistence, and hence he concentrates on food crops for himself and his family; he ean give emphasis to cash crops only in areas where the productivity per farm is sufficiently high to enable him to meet his subsistence needs on a fraction of his land. The highest percentage of food grains is found in the Districts with little or no canal irrigation in the Former Punjab (Tables 1.10.1 and 1.10.2). About two-thirds of the land in these Districts is planted in food grains, principally wheat, and less than 10 percent in cotton and fodder combined. (11) Only a fraction of the fodder is sold directly, but the remainder is used, at least in part, to feed commercial meat, wool, milk, and ghee producing livestock. 41



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Chapter 1 cover flood plains, are covered with highly uniform soils of sandy silt, and are the most fertile regions of the Former Punjab. They are a few feet higher than the meander flood plains or cover flood plains, and are usually separated from them by low bluffs cut by the meandering rivers. In Thal Doab, the place of the bar is taken by the sand flats and irregular low hills, covered with shifting sands, of the Thal Desert. Here, in the Thal Desert southeast of the Plain, and in smaller areas in the other Doabs, in Former Bahawalpur, and in Former Sind, the topography has been shaped by wind rather than running water. Sand dunes and hills and wind-eroded remnants dominate the landscape. These areas are sparsely vegetated, mostly uncultivated, roamed by flocks of sheep and goats, and thinly dotted with wells and patches of dry-cropped lands. At the northern ends of Thal, Chaj, and Rechna Doabs, near the rim of the Plain, the slope of the land steepens slightly, and the alluvial deposits become much thinner. These "piedmont plains" are generally above the reach of the present canal system, and were apparently formed by outwash from the Himalayan foothills, rather than by flood deposition from the great rivers. Similar piedmont plains cover large areas at the foot of the Sulaiman and Kirthar Mountains on the right bank of the Indus. North of the rim lie the Potwar Uplands of the northern Former Punjab and the Former Northwest Frontier. These are highly irregular in form, hilly, and eroded with small alluvial basins and fans separated by older rocks. Areas of easily culturable land We shall now briefly describe the areas of easily culturable land in each sub-division of the Plain. The most suitable areas for agricultural development are the meander and cover flood plains and the bars. Parts of the wind-blown sand plains and low sand hills are also improvable, as are the piedmont plains, though with more difficulty than the flood plains and bars formed in past times by the major rivers. The active flood plains and desert areas are not easily susceptible to canal or tubewell irrigation and hence it is hard to increase their agricultural productivity. Within Thal Doab, which has the Thal desert at its center, mugh of the non-desert area is occupied by the active flood plains of the Indus, the Jhelum, and the Chenab, totalling 1.18 million acres. Relatively small areas of meander flood plain cover 0.87 million acres west and south of Trimmu and in Muzaffargarh District. A narrow piedmont plain containing 25



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Chapter 7 conventional methods of hydrological analysis. Cross-references are made at appropriate points and over-all results have been collated in summary statements. General Features of the Hydrological Regime(1) The Indus Valley is a vast depression filled with alluvium. It is bounded on the north by the Himalayas, on the northwest by the Kirthar and Sulaiman Ranges and on the east and south by the Thar Desert and the Rann of Cutch. The climate of the Indus Plain is subtropical-arid in most regions, but in its extreme northern portion the climate may be classified as sub tropical-semi-humid. Temperatures vary typically from 80 to 115 degrees Fahrenheit in the summer, to less than 50 degrees Fahrenheit in the winter, with frosts not uncommon although prolonged sub -zero periods are rare. Practically all the Plain receives less than 15 inches of rain per year. About a fifth of the area receives less than 5 inches. In over half of the Plain, the rainfall is so low and sporadic that it is of almost negligible value as an adjunct to water supply for irrigation. In the extreme northern sector, rainfall supplies a substantial part of the total water, ranging from 18 to 24 inches per year. The average annual amount of effective rain for crops is about five inches in the Former Punjab and Bahawalpur. Most of the rainfall occurs during the summer months; during the spring and fall, precipitation may be virtually zero. West Pakistan lies at the western edge of the Indian Ocean monsoon belt, and the intensity of monsoon rainfall varies greatly from year to year depending on the prevailing meteorological pattern. The Indus River and its five famed tributaries of the Punjab arise from sources in the Himalaya Mountains and meander in wide shallow channels through a vast flat plain, which has an area of nearly 80,000 square miles. The river waters are derived from the monsoon rains and from snowmelt in the northern mountains. Each year a surge in river flow starts in April, cests in mid-summer, and declines in October to a rather steady low discharge consisting largely of the (1)An excellent description of the geological, hydrological and climatological features of the Indus Plain that relate to water resources of West Pakistan is presented by A.V. Karpov and Ross Nebolsine: "Indus Valley: Key to Pakistan's Future" Indus (magazine): December 1960, January 1961 and March 1961. 258



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Chapter 1 2. Water shortage. We estimate that in the future only 138 million acre feet annually will be available to West Pakistan from the rivers of the Indus Plain. Because of the seasonal nature of the rivers and the shortage of surface storage, nearly half the river water flows to the sea unused during a short two months of summer, and a large fraction of the remainder is lost from the irrigation canals before it reaches the farmers' fields. Less than 2 feet per acre is available for the presentlyirrigated land. 3. System of land holding. Many of the farmers are sharecropping tenants, and have little incentive to increase production. Nearly all of them struggle with small and widelyseparated plots that multiply the difficulties of efficient use of irrigation and farm animals. 4. Salinity and water logging. The fertility of several million cultivated acres, amounting to perhaps 20 percent of the sown area, has been impaired, -and in some cases destroyed, by the rise of the water table and the accumulation of salt in the soil. 5. Primitive methods of cultivation. In West Pakistan we have the wasteful paradox of a great and modern irrigation system pouring its waters onto lands cultivated as they were in the days of Abraham, Isaac, and Jacob. Any of these difficulties would hold agricultural productivity down; coexisting, they confront the farmers of Pakistan with overwhelming problems. The first four have been discussed in previous sections. Something more must now be said about the fifth. In West Pakistan the land is plowed by a wooden plow of ancient design with a tiny steel tip, pulled by a pair of bullocks enfeebled by undernourishment. Unselected seeds are sown broadcast. Perhaps the best statistical indicator of the state of agricultural practices is the extent of fertilization and the use of chemicals for controlling insects and other pests. Table 1.20, shows that such aids to agriculture are comparatively little used in Pakistan; Egypt uses a hundred times more fertilizer per acre than does Pakistan; Japan more than two hundred times as much. Table 2.4.1 gives some of the details underlying Table 1.20; it shows that of all the major crops on which West Pakistan depends, fertilizers are used to a significant extent only for sugarcane. 6,5



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Chapter 7 Maf/ yr Total Diversion from rivers 45.0 Recharge from rain, rivers and new link canals 6.1 Mined water 22.1 73.2 Non -beneficial evapotranspiration 9.2 --Saline water exported 4.9 14.1 Net usable water 59.1 10. Assuming an annual rate of application of irrigation water of 3.5 feet per year in the non-saline area and 1.15(3.5) =4.03 feet per year in the saline area, the total acreage under irrigation at nearly full double cropping will be (18.6 + 29.0 5) /3. 5+ (5. 7 + 4.0 + 1. 71) / (4.0 3) =16.4 million ac re s. It is believed that with this rate of irrigation and with effective rain of 0.4 feet/ yr, there will be sufficient water for leaching and prevention of salt buildup in the soil and ground water. Utilization of the remaining 24 -16.4 = 7.6 million acres Will require development of additional sources of water sup ply during the second level of development. D. In the water balance for the Former Sind the following predications are made for the first level of development: 1. Total area commanded by canals, 13 million acres. 2. Average annual diversion, 44 maf/yr. 3. Water losses plus field losses (1/ 3 distribution and 2/ 3 field -especially in drainage from rice culture). (a) Leakage at 26 percent; 0.26 (44) =11.4 maf/yr. (b) Non-beneficial evapotranspiration 13 percent; 0.13 (44) = 5.7 maf/yr. 4. Effective rain: (2.1 inches per year on 13 million acres; weighted average of all districts); (2.1/12) (13) = 2.3 maf/yr. 5. Total available in Former Sind for agriculture as based on the present canal system; 44 -11.4 -5.7 + 2.3 =29.2 maf/ yr. 6. Average rate of irrigation, (2 6.9/ 13 = 2.0 7) acre feet per acre per year. It is evident that unless additional water supplies can be developed the actual cultivated area must be smaller than 13 million acres. 283 -Y



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Chapter 7 3. In our re-examination of some of the older field and stream observations, we have reached conclusions regarding numerical values of soil parameters that differ considerably from the conclusions reached by the original investigators. An important example of this is the range of values of the specific yield or storage coefficient of the subsoil of the northern plain. Mohammad and Beringer(3) cite previous soil sampling studies in West Pakistan and state that the specific yield of the aquifers of the Indus basin is about 0.1 or 10 percent. It is undoubtedly true that there are some regions, particularly in the southern plain, where the storage coefficient is as low as 10 percent. However, we have used larger values of 0.2 to 0.3 in this chapter in predicting the rate of drawdown by pumping from deep mining wells. In adopting these higher figures we concur with the conclusions of Jacob(4) who reanalyzed results from many observation wells and pumping tests in Rechna Doab and found that in previous analyses canal leakage had been overestimated and specific yield underestimated. Jacob's studies and our own conclusions were done with new theoretical models of unsteady flow in aquifers that were not available when the original investigations were made.(5) The reanalysis, furthermore, indicated that the hydraulic transmissivity of the deep subsoil of the northern plain is high compared to that in other regions such as the Imperial Valley in California. Runoff and Reservoir Storage-Yield Relations The estimates of canal diversion and river flows presented in the water budget do not have a high degree of precision for several reasons which are discussed below. It is difficult to predict average diversions that will be available with construction of dams on the rivers; it is even more difficult to quantify the annual variation in diversions that may be expected with augmented surface storage. Despite the difficulty, however, we have attempted to estimate "firm" diversions (canal-head flows that will be exceeded on the average during 80 percent to 90 percent of future years). It is important to do this in order to form a rational basis for decisions pertaining to large long-term investment in tubewells and other works for (3)Review Article "Waterlogging and Salinity in West Pakistan" Pakistan Development Review, 3, No. 2 (1963). (4)Jacob, C. E., "Supplement to A Review of Project Number One Salinity Control Program in West Pakistan" Tipton and Kalmbach, Inc. (June 1959). (5)Ferris, J. G., D. B. Knowles, R. H. Brown, and R. W. Stallman. "Theory of Aquifer Tests" USGS Water Supply Paper 1536e (1962). 266



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Table 1.20 Comparison of Use of Fertilizers and Pesticides in Different Countries and Regions Total Cultivated lbs. lbs. lbs. area lbs. N P205 KZ0 Pesticide 106 acres acre acre acre acre Pakistan 62 10.4 .01 .003 .03 India 395 1 0.1 .007 .05 Egypt 6.4 54 10 0.7 1.1 Japan 15 92 43 47 5.3 Mexico 49 6 1 0.2(1) 1.3(1) USSR 546 N.A. N.A. N.A. 0.2(1) Europe 378 19 22 23 N.A. USA 465 10 10 8 0.3 Data from FAO Production Year Book, Vol. 13. Fertilizer and pesticide figures for crop year 1957-58 except where noted. W1)Data for 1956. N.A. -Data not available. 94



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Table 1.8 Average Agricultural Production in Canal-irrigated but not very Waterlogged and Saline Districts in the Former Punjab(l) Ten Years, from 1949-50 to 1958-59 Crop gross area sown Yield Value Yield Value 10 acres % 106 tons 106 Rs 7. per acre per acre lbs. Rs Food Grains Rice (cleaned) .21 2.4 .06 20 1.5 685 93 Wheat 2.99 33.4 1.29 414 31.4 970 139 Barley .07 0.8 .02 6 0.4 705 76 Jowar (sorghum) .10 1.1 .02 6 0.5 500 62 Bajra (millet) .33 3.7 .07 22 1.7 485 65 Maize (corn) .24 2.6 .10 30 2.3 950 128 I Total Food Grains 3.94 44.0 1.56 498 37.8 895 126 -I Other Food Crops Gram (chick peas) .82 9.2 .21 62 4.7 570 75 Other pulses (legumes) .20 2.2 (.03) (9) 0.7 (335) (45) Oil seeds .26 3.0 .05 33 2.5 435 127 Cotton seed same as cotton .23 170 12.9 370 123 Cane sugar (raw sugar) .29 3.2 .36 161 12.3 2,745 554 Fruits .07 0.8 (.20) (67) (5.1) (6,590) (1,000) Vegetables and other crops .22 2.4 (.30) (44) 3.3 (3,000) (200) Fibers Cotton 1.39 15.5 .11 85 6.5 185 61 Fodder 1.74 19.5 (12.81) (174) 13.2 (16,460) (100) Tobacco .02 0.2 .01 13 1.0 645 750 Total 8.95 100 3.07(2) 1,316 100 147 Total, less fodder, fruits, vegetables and other 6.92 77.3 1,031 78.5 149 Canal Irrigated Area 8,36 93.4 (1) Districts of Lahore, Lyallpur, Montgomery, ultan, and Shahpur. (2) Less fodder. For source of data see Table 1.7. Figures in parentheses are our own estimates.



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0O 2 4 6 & 10 1 4 1 ______ts__________ 20 300 2 4 6 8 1 2 1 6 I 0 O 2 4 6 8 1 2 1 6 10 0 0 o 1 4 1 8 2 Ut L./I/ U w 0 -50w050 W 50 z. S1503 150 0 0 0 200 20 ~ 200 200 00 2 4 6 10 12 14 6 1 20 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 t8 20 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 TIME SINCE PUMPING BEGAN, IN YEARS TME SINCE PUMPING BEGAN N YEARS IME SINCE PUMPING BEGAN, IN YEARS TIME SINCE PUMPING BEGAN, IN YEARS 0 00 1 5 150 0 0 200 0 200 W 50 25o 250 0 00 2 4 6 6 1 12 1 4 1 6 18 300 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 TIME SINCE PUMPING BEGAN, IN YEARS TIME SINCE PUMPING BEGAN, IN YEARS 0 0 1150 50 z too z oo z z 0 0 o 0 6o 200 200 0 250 250 30o 300 0 2 4 6 B 10 12 14 16 18 20 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 TIME SINCE PUMPING BEGAN, IN YEARS TIME SINCE PUMPING BEGAN, IN YEARS dicag fo 0wel .. ,0.gd oalrcag = 59 0 p 28 xs0o p logcnl e ao 0 0 00 20o206 200 a 25o 250 300500 0 2 4 6 tO 12 14 16 20 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 TIME SINCE PUMPING BEGAN IN YEARS TIME SINCE PUMPING BEGAN. IN YEARS Figure 7.10 Graphs showing watertable drawdowns in the ten-mile strip aquifer after pumping twenty years; total discharge from 10 wells = 8,.6 x 106 gpd. Total recharge =5.90 x 106 gpd (2.84 x 106 gpd along canal, 3.06 x 106 gpd over entire area).



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Chapter 7 that infiltration from the latter could be considered negligible at the midpoint of the former. The 25 cells were located in a direction perpendicular to the long side at its mid-.point. The six cells with pumps extended from the longitudinal axis of the rectangle to the edge; the nineteen cells without pumps were continued beyond the project area into the adjacent region which was assumed to be irrigated but without vertical drainage. Three runs were made with the following cell sizes: 2,000, 6,000, and 18,000 feet. These corresponded to widths of project areas of (2) (6) (2,000)/ 5,280 = 4.54 miles; 2(6) (6,9000)/ 5,280 = 13.6 miles; and 2(6) (18,000)/ 5,280 =40.9 miles. The parameter values for pumping rates, canal inflow, rain, and the ground water feedback relations were set to accord with those derived in the water budget. The results are shown in Figure 7.27. The transmissibility of the aquifer was taken to be 200,000 gpd/ft; the storage coefficient was 0.25. The results show in a striking way the marked effect of lateral infiltration in retarding the dewatering of small tubewell fields. The physical explanation is that in small areas the frictional resistance to lateral infiltration is small so that when the water table is depressed, a large region outside is also depressed. When this happens the evaporation is reduced and the entire recharge from the outside area is captured, and with continued pumping large lateral ground water inflows occur. The drawdown of the smallest area in Figure 7.27 is about one-fifth that of the largest. While the amount of water per unit of area available for agriculture and for leaching in the smallest is the same as the largest, the agricultural productivity of the former would be seriously reduced since severe waterlogging would continue during the first decade after the start of Pumping. On the other hand, the drawdown rate throughout the largest area, which corresponds to a project area of a million acres, is such that th 'e effect of waterlogging would be virtually eliminated after one or two years of pumping. The water table curve for the largest area after twenty years of pumping, shows drawdowns ranging from 25 to,67 feet with a large part of the central zone more than 50 feet below the surface. Project areas, larger than 41 miles on a side would exhibit similar drawdown characteristics. In the project area of intermediate size (14 miles) the dewatering process is slower in the first few years, and in regions of high permeability or in areas near a major source of recharge, such as a river, serious impairment of agricultural productivity might persist for five or ten years, particularly in low-lying regions. Therefore, these hydrological considerations indicate an ideal project size of at least a million acres. 315



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Table 6.3 Salinity Tolerences of Fruits and Vegetables in the Irrigated Arid Valleys of California Vegetable Crops Fruit Crops Green beans Lemon Celery Peach Sensitive Radish Apricot Plum Grapefruit Orange Apple Pear Cantaloupe Grape Cucumber Olive Peas Fig Onion Pomegranate Carrots Moderately Squash Tolerant Peppers Sweet corn Lettuce Cabbage Broccoli Tomato Spinach Date Tolerant Asparagus Kale Garden beet Adapted from U.S.D.A., ARS publication ARS-41-4 by Bernstein, Fireman and Reeve, titled,"Control of Salinity in the Imperial Valley, California". 255



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Chapter 8 of lines and varieties of wheats that are available from other countries, and, in particular, from stocks in the programs supported in Central America, Latin America, and India by the Rockefeller Foundation. It would be possible to start immediately with the planting of 100,000 lines of wheat. Early selections and concentration should permit the development of one or more improved varieties for distribution in 5 years. This is at most half the time that might be required by conventional approaches. Over the last 10 to 15 years, wheats from many parts of the United States and many other countries of the world have been used in the formation of these improved varieties. Hence there is a lready considerable selection for both yield and disease resistance. At the same time, the nutrient requirements of wheat should be studied by the soil scientists as well as response to water, variation in salt tolerance, and other yield factors. The plant pathologists should make an intensive study of the rusts prevalent in West Pakistan. The entomologists should concern themselves with insect pests and develop programs for pest control. Plants for Special Environments Attention should be given to the, study of Kharif plants with a short growing season that could be used to take advantage of the highly seasonal character of the water supply. For example, it should be possible to develop high yielding sorghums to replace maize where water is in short supply. Some effort should be placed on the study of salt resistant plants and varieties that might be used in areas where the supply of augmented irrigation water is relatively saline. All this agricultural research should recognize that the Indus Valley is a ."arge area; even a million acres is a large area. The crops and treatments that succeed in Multan are not necessarily suitable in Gujranwala. It is for this reason we have recommended that each project area be provided with its own agricultural experiment station. No innovations should be promoted on a large scale until they have been tested under local farm conditions. It may even be necessary in the more heterogeneous project areas to decentralize the agricultural experiment work. Methods of Cultivation Though no part of our program will be easy to carry out, the least difficult will be the provision to farmers of new materials: additional water, improved seeds, and so on. The most difficult will be those innovations that require the 371



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Chapter 3 Improved seeds To overcome the tragically low yields of agricultural crops in West Pakistan, immediate changes must be introduced at the farmer's level without waiting for the results of long-range research. At the same time, it is essential to strengthen the research and development program concerned with the primary factors of production, even though the results may not become generally applicable for. five to ten years. A program for improved seeds is an example of this general strategy. Field testing of existing seed stocks in West Pakistan shows wide variation in yields under comparable climatic and agronomic conditions. The differences become more noticeable when additional water and fertilizer are applied to the test fields. Consequently, expansion of efforts to identify, test, and increase the most promising varieties of present seeds should be undertaken as soon as possible. These activities should be continued during the early years of getting the project areas under way. As existing better seed stocks are selected, arrangements should be made with local farmers to undertake the increase of better seeds for distribution. Depending upon the interest and reliability of the farmers, it may be necessary to add a direct governmental operation for this activity. The need will vary from area to area. There are two reasons for securing the cooperation of local farmers. First, competence in seed production must be built among the farmers. In this way, re sources will be created to produce rapid increase of high-yielding stocks when these come from the research stations in the second phase of the seed program. Ultimately, several hundred thousand acres of seed farms will be needed in West Pakistan. Second, as in the case of fertilizer, we believe it desirable to develop a diversity of supply sources for improved seeds. The second phase of the program for improvement of seeds should be expanded immediately. Even under an intensive breeding program, at least five years are needed before the first new seeds will be available for large-scale distribution. It can be expected that the potential increase in yield from these new seeds will be substantial. In Mexico, over 75 percent of the wheat crop was grown with improved varieties 10 years after the start of the development program. The yields from these varieties were 30 to more than 50 percent greater than those which they replaced.(6) (6)ibid. 148



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Vlugter, H., Some aspects of water control in West Pakistan: Pakistan Geographical Review, v. XV, no. 2, 1960. Wadia, D. N,, Geology of India: MacMillan, London, 3rd ed., 1953. Waggaman, William H., and Ruhlman, E. Robert, Phosphate rock. 2. Processing and utilization: Washington, U.S. Dept. of the Interior, Bureau of Mines, 36 p. (U.S. Bureau of Mines, Information Circular 7951) 1960. Wahhab, A., Fifty years research in soils, fertilizers and soil microbiology: Lahore, Dept. of Agriculture, West Pakistan, 73 p., 1960. Chapter 12 of Fifty years of agricultural education and research at the Punjab Agricultural College and Research Institute, Lyallpur, West Pakistan. Watt, Sir George, The commercial products of India: John Murray, London, 1908, West PakistanAgricultural Information Service, Agriculture in West Pakistan, some facts and figures: Lahore, 21 e, 1961. West Pakistan,Board of Revenue, Master plan for colonization and development of Ghulam Muhammad Barrage area: Pt. I, Karachi, Govt. Press, 132 p., 1961. West Pakistan, Dept. of Agriculture, Fifty years of agricultural education and research at the Punjab Agricultural College and Research Institute, Lyallpur, West Pakistan: v. I, Golden Jubilee, 1909-1959, Lahore, Pakistan, I v. (various pagings) 1960. West Pakistan, Dept. of Agriculture, Extension Service, Farm management studies in the former Punjab, by Dr. Ali Asghar Khan: Lahore, 39 p. (its agriculture marketing and economic surveys Publication 4) M9. West Pakistan,Dept. of Power, Irrigation and Development, Bureau of Statistics, Statistics of West Pakistan, agricultural data (by division and district, 1948-49 through 1956-57): Lahore, 118 p., (its BS report 2) 1958, West Pakistan, Directorate of Fisheries, First annual report for the year ending 30 June, 1960, by Dr. Nazir Ahmad: Lahore, Govt. Print. West Pakistan, 11 p., 1960. West Pakistan, Finance Dept., Development budget, 1961-62: Lahore, Directorate of Public Relations, 125 p., 1961. West Pakistan, Irrigation Dept., A brief note on water losses in the irrigation distribution system from the river to the field: Lahore, 3, 2 p., 1961. West Pakistan, Flood Commission, Annual report, 1958-59: Lahore, 1 v., 1959. 403



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Chapter 5 Thus if present cropping patterns persist but irrigation deltas are brought up to the full depths recommended in Chapter 2, a disposable surplus of more than 1.6 million acre-feet of water will remain. The bulk of the economic value of the tubewell water depends on the use of this disposable surplus since, as we saw above, there is little to be gained, aside from the maintenance of soil condition, from increasing irrigation depths on currently cultivated land. There are two obvious productive uses for this water. In the early years of the project, particularly, much of it can be used to reclaim abandoned land and to increase the productivity of partially salinated lands. Step by step with the progress of this work the water can be used to extend the area under cultivation and to increase the intensity of cultivation of lands in use. Neither of these improvements, however, can be effectuated by water alone. Land reclamation requires, in addition to water, skillful administration and supervision by the project administration. Extension of the area under crops and increase in the intensity of cultivation depends on the cooperation and energy of the farmers under the guidance and stimulation of the agricultural assistants. In short, these desirable and productive results will not occur by themselves even if water is provided at reasonable costs; the additional water will be used efficiently only if accompanied by able and energetic agricultural administration. In the absence of fine-grained surveys of soil condition, it is not possible to make a reliable estimate of the economic value of reclaiming deteriorated and abandoned lands. The estimate to be presented should therefore be regarded as only suggestive and indicative of an order of magnitude. Consideration of the geological history of Rechna Doab, along the lines of the analysis in Chapter 7, indicates an average salt burden of about 4 tons per acre foot of soil or a salt concentration of 0.2 percent. Table 1.12 shows that about 20 percent of the culturable land in the doab is seriously contaminated, that is, has a salt concentration of 0.3 percent or greater. If we conceive of the frequency distribution of land by salt concentration we see that these two data determine its main characteristics. For example, a Pearson Type III curve with exponent 3 can be scaled to have a mean of about 0.2 and an upper 20-percentile of 0.3, and other frequency curves conforming to these two data will be very similar in shape. We have adopted this Pearsonian curve for purposes of estimation. The effect of various salt concentrations on the yields of different crops was given in Table 2.6. This information is used in Table 5.7 to compute the actual yields of the land in relation to the yields that could be obtained if the salt 191



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Table 5.9 Increase in Production Resulting from Addition of Nitrogen Fertilizer to Selected Crs in-Can~a I-igated but Only Slightly Waterlogged and Saline Districts in the FormerPuntab Gross Dose Cost ExpectExpectNet inTotal Total area of (Rs/ ed ined increase net inincrease Crop sown fertiacre) crease crease in crease in yield (lOt0 lizer (2) in yield in value value in value (10' acres(lbs N/ (lbs/ac) (Rs/ (Rs/ (10 tons) (1) acre) (3) acre) acre) Rs) Rice .21 30 14 245 34 20 4 .02 Wheat 2.99 30 14 290(4) 41 27 81 .39 Maize .24 30 14 495 67 53 l5 Total food grains 3.44 98 .46 Sugar Cane (gur) .29 60 28 990 199 171 50 .13 Fruits & melons .07 45 21 990 150 129 9 .03 Other _22 45 21 990 60 39 9 A10 Total food (6) 1.97 68 .33 Cotton lint & seed 1.39 45 21 165 54 33 46 .10 Fodder 1.74 30 14 3,295 20 6 10 2.56 Tobacco 0.02 30 14 180 202 125 4 .002 Total 7.17 34.5 16 48 32 226 .82(5) Total gross area sown in these Districts 8.95 27.8 13 38 25 226 .82 Percentage net increase in value over total area = 17.0% Total cost of fertilizer = 118 x 10 Rs Total increase/total cost a 2.9 Percentage increase in yield = 26.7% (1) From Table 1.8. 2 Estimated cost of nitrogen = 0.475 Rs/lb. (3) From Self Sufficiency in Foodgrains and Agricultural Production Targets for the Second Plan (1960-61 to 1964-65); Government of Pakistan, Planning Commission; AGR. 19; August 1959. (4) Estimated from Fifty Years Research in Sbils, Fertilizers and Soil Microbiol2gy; A. Wahhab; Department of Agriculture, West Pakistan; 1960, plus unpublished experiments by Dr. Wahhab and Dr. J. G. Vermaat of the Food and Agriculture Organization. (5) Less fodder. (6) Includes cotton acreage. 221



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Chapter 6' region, there are opportunities for the production of sheep or cattle on range forage. Such production chould be carried out largely independent of irrigation facilities. In the non-waterlogged, moderately-saline areas, provision of drinking water, clearing of heavy brush, and seeding of salt-tolerant grasses such as alkali sacaton, elephant grass, squirreltail or wild-rye could provide an annual carrying capacity of one animal unit (I cow and calf or 5 sheep) per 25-50 acres.(2) Because of the seasonal nature of the rainfall, it would be necessary to provide approximately 12 pounds of supplemental feed (such as cottonseed cake) per animal unit per day for four months during the rabi season. This requirement could be met be developing interregional trade, i.e., cottonseed cake, a by-product from cotton production in the irrigated region, could be an important input in the barani area. Exact cost estimates for the needed range reclamation are difficult to make; however, compar le projects in the United States have cost from Rs 20 to Rs 40 per acre.'with average range management, there are few maintenance costs, and the range should produce at capacity for at least 10 years. This would mean an amortized cost of 2.5 to 5 rupees per acre per year. The sales value of animals at the farm shows great variation; in the case of sheep, current prices may range from Rs 15 to Rs 35 per head.(4) (2) See A. Johnston and I. Hussain, Grass Cover Types of West Pakistan. (October, 1962) for carrying capacities of various types of range land. (3) Data supplied by U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Representative costs are as follows: Seedbed preparation, approximately $2.00 Seed costs, approximately 40 percent Switchgrass 40 percent Sideoats Grama 10 percent Green Sprangletop 10 percent Plains Bristlegrass Total $5.50 Amortized 10 years at 6 percent = $ .73/acre/year 4) Several shepherds reported that lambs sold at Eid bring more than Rs 0 per head. 235



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Chapter 7 B. With a total surface and ground water storage for regulation of river flow predicated to be 41 million acre feet, it is estimated that a firm yield of 101.4 maf/yr in at least 20 years out of 25 can be attained. The average diversion would be increased to 108.1. The additional storage volume would be obtained: (1) by completion of Mangla and Tarbela dams to full height; (2) development of other storage including sites on the western tributaries of the Indus; and (3) further exploitation of ground water storage by installation of recharge works. Additional tubewells would be needed to utilize the ground water storage. Every foot of depth in the aquifer of the northern plain is equivalent to a reservoir the size of Mangla or Tarbela. In time this reservoir must be used efficiently to help regulate the flow of the river system and thus to augment the supply of water for irrigation. C. Our estimate of the storage required to regulate the three western rivers so as to produce a firm yield of 101.4 maf/yr in 20 years out of 25 and an average yield of 108.1 maf/yr is based on storage yield formulas given by Sudler(l0) and by Bryant.(ll) The ratio of the firm yield to mean annual flow is 101.4/ 136 = 0.74. The coefficient of variation of mean annual flow -the ratio of the standard deviation of annual flows to the mean -is 0.13 or 13 percent.(12) By using Sudler's formulation and Bryant's diagrmas we find that to provide the required firm yield in 4 out of 5 years on the average, the effective storage volume for flow regulation must be as large as 30 percent of the mean annual flow: Thus 0.3 (136)= 41 million acre feet of storage are needed. This volume may be obtained both in surface storage and in the ground water aquifer. Possibilities for additional surface storage during the high-runoff season include the following: (i) For the Indus River, the Skardu, Kalabagh sites and the Dhok Pathan and Makhad sites on the Soan River; (ii) For the Jhelum, offstream sites on the Bunha and Kahan Rivers filled from high Mangla Dam; and (iii) for the Chenab River, the Chiniot site. Further development of Manchar Lake below the Sukkur barrage would provide valuable storage for downstream regulation; it could be used to store water of good quality resulting from temporary and unpredictable fluctuations in river flow gains and losses below the rim of the irrigation plain. If, for example, the following reservoirs were constructed Mangla 7.0 maf (ultimate) Tarbela 8.4 maf (ultimate) Dhok Pathan 11.0 maf Makhad 6.0 maf (10)Charles E. Sudler, "Storage Required for Regulation of Stream Flow" Trans. Am. Soc. Civil Engrs., Vol. 81, p. 622, 1927. (ll)George T. Bryant, "Stochastic Theory of Queues Applied to the Design of Impounding Reservoirs" Ph.D. Thesis, Harvard University, 1961. (12)Calculated from data in Table 7.1. 286



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Chapter 1 The hope of Pakistani agriculture lies in overcoming these impediments to the greatest extent possible. Increased encouragement of family planning is important to prevent the pressure of population on the land from becoming markedly worse. A program is now under way, and has been for some years, to consolidate land holdings and to break up large estates. In the nature of the case, progress must be heart-breakingly slow; every parcel of land transferred requires long negotiations and sometimes litigation. The total natural inflow of water cannot be increased, but its utilization can be made greatly more efficient. The course of salination and waterlogging can be arrested and land can be reclaimed. Agricultural practices can be modernized and the people's nutrition can be improved. These are the tasks that must be shouldered if farming in West Pakistan is to be made productive. 66



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Table 1.4 Population by Districts and Regions in West Pakistan 1949-59 Density Total Average of Population Urban Rural Gross Rural Thousands Ten PopuPopuArea Population of Year lation lation Sown Persons Persons Increase Thousands % 106 per Sown District or Region 1961 1951 % of Persons Rural Acres Acre Canal Irrigated Dists. of Former Punjab Gujranwala 1,292 1,047 23.4 345 947 73.3 1.07 .89 Jhang 1,079 877 22.9 173 906 84.0 1.02 .89 Lahore 2,480 1,895 31.0 1,465 1,015 40.8 0.93 1.09 Lyallpur 2,684 ,2,153 24.9 573 2,111 78.7 1.86 1.13 Montgomery 2,134 1,816 17.4 239 1,895 88.8 2.02 .94 Multan 2,702 2,108 28.1 577 2,125 78.7 2.41 .88 Muzaffargarh 990 751 31.7 73 915 92.6 0.80 1.15 Shahpur 1,468 1,163 26.7 284 1,183 80.7 1.73 .69 Sheikhupura 1,081 923 17.2 137 944 87.3 1.00 .94 Total 15,910 12,733 25.0 3,866 12,041 75.7. 12.84 .94 Districts or Regions with Minor Canal Irrig. in Former Punjab and NWFP Campbellpur (Attock) 767 723 6.1 78 689 89.8 1.05 .66 D. G. Khan (Cult. Area) 725 570 27.2 97 627 86.7 0.69 .91 D. I. Khan (Cult. Area) 383 339 13.1 68 314 82.3 0.45 .70 Gujrat 1,326 1,159 14.3 168 1,158 87.3 1.11 1.04 Jhelum 749 682 9.8 106 644 85.9 0.70 .92 Mianwali 747 550 36.0 142 605 81.0 1.20 .51 Pawalpindi 1,137 876 29.8 407 730 64.2 0.61 1.20 Sialkot 1,596 1,474 8.1 255 1,342 84.0 1.10 1.22 Total 7,430 6,373 16.6 1,321 6,.109 82.2 6.90 .89 Former Bahawalpur Bahawalpur 736 528 39.4 138 597 81.3 0.70 .85 Bahawalnagar 823 630 30.8 105 718 87.3 1.14 .63 Rahimyar Khan 1,016 665 52.9 114 902 88.8 1.11 .81 Total 2,574 1,823 41.2 35,7 2,217 86.1 2.95 .75 Former Sind Khairpur Division 3,134 2,472 26.8 505 2,629 83.9 3.16 .83 Hyderabad Division 3,291 2,539 29.6 754 2,537 77.1 3.76 .69 Total 6,425 5,011 28.2 1,259 5,166 80.4 6.92 .75 Karachi 2,135 1,202 77.8 1,916 .. 219 10.2 Other Areas 8,408 6,578 27.8 936 7,473 88.9 Compiled from data given in' Population Census of Pakistan, Census Bulletin, No. 2 Office of the Census Commissioner, Mi istry of Home Affairs, Government o Pakistan, Karachi, November 1961; and from "Statistics 4f West Pakistan, Agricultural Data"IBureau of Statistics, Government of West Pakistan Lahore, December 1960. 71



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0 Location of Wells X Location of graphs shown in Figures 5-7 and 5-8 ._ CeolImper meablle bm Ci3; _cowl 10 M0@o$ (Aquifer) 10 Feet (Model) Figure 7.8 Modeled Ten-Mile Strip of Aquifer: Locations of canal and tubewells in the prototype and in the electric analogue computer.



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Table 1.11.1 A-verage Agricultural Production in Former Bahawalpur (1) Crop Gross area sown Yield Value Yield Value 106 acres % 106 tons 106 Rs 7 per acre per acre lbs. Rs Food Grains Rice (cleaned) .05 1.6 .01 4 1.1 655 89 Wheat .83 28.1 .25 80 21.8+ 675 97 Barley .03 0.8+ .01 1 0.3 465 50 Jowar (sorghum) .13 4.4+ .03 8 2.2 465 57 Bajra (millet) .13 4.5 .03 8 2.2 465 63 Maize (corn) .03 1.2.01 2 0.5 490 66 Total Food Grains 1.20 40.6 .34 103 28.1 620 87 Other Food Crops Gram (chick peas) .24 8.3 .06 19 5.2 575 76 Other pulses (legumes) .14 4.8(.02) (6) (1.6) (340) (45) Oil seeds .16 5.4 .03 22 6.0 480 140 Cotton seed same as cotton .08 61 16.6 320 106 Cane sugar (raw sugar) .10 3.3 .10 47 12.8 2,375 479 Fruits .02 0.6+ (.06) (19) (5.2) (6,485) (1,000) Vegetables and other crops .05 1.7 -(10) (2.7) -(200) Fibers Cotton .57 19.4 .04 30 8.2 160 53 Fodder .46 15.8 3.42 (47) 12.8 (16,460) (100) Tobacco 005 0.1 < 005 3 0.8 1,345 1,550 Total 2.94 100 .73(2) 367 100 125 Total, less fodder, fruits, vegetables, and other 2.41 81.9 292 79.5 121 Canal Irrigated Area 2.86 97.0 (1) Districts of Bahawalnagar, Bahawalpur, and Rahimyar Khan. Seven-year average, 1952-53 to 1958-59 for Bahawalpur District, four-year average, 1955-56 to 1958-59, for Bahawalnagar and Rahimyar Khan Districts. (2) Less fodder. For source of data, see Table 1.7. Figures in parentheses are our own estimates.



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Table 1.13 Average Annual Increases in Gross Area Sown Average Gross Area Sown Average Yearly Increase 1949-50 to 1958-59 in Gross Area Sown Region 106 acres 103 acres % Canal-irrigated Districts of Former Punjab Lahore 0.93 16 1.7 Lyalipur .-86' (.16) Montgomery 2.02 21 1.0 Multan 2.41 43 1.8 Shahpur (Sargoda) 1.73 31 1.8 Total Group I Districts(1) 8.95 127 1.42 Gujranwala 1.07 2 2.1 Jhang 1.02 20 Muzaffargarh(3) 0.80 20 2.5 Sheikhupura 1.01 2 0.2 Total Group II Districts(2) 3.90 64 1.64 Districts with Minor or No Canal Irrigation in Former Punjab and NW FP Campbellpur (Attock) 1.05 13 1.3 D. G. Khan 0.69 5 0.8 D. I. Khan 0.45 0 0 Gujrat 1.11 10 0.9 Jhelum 0.70 5 0.7 Mianwali(3) 1.20 Z9 2.4 Rawalpindi 0.61 5 0.8 Sialkot 1.10 13 1.2 Total 6.91 80 1.16 Former Bahawalpur 2.95 50 1.69 Former Sind 6.92 58 0.84 Grand Total 29.63 379 1.28 84



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Chapter 1 At present, severe waterlogging occurs over an area watered by the Eastern Sadiquia Canal, northeast of the town of Bahawalnagar, and along the upper part of the Panjnad Canal in Rahimyar Khan. The Bahawalnagar area suffers from a shortage of water as well as from waterlogging. Much of it has been abandoned by irrigators, and is reverting to sand desert, or to dry farming. According to the Colombo Plan report, the total area of waterlogged land in Former Bahawalpur is about 500,000 acres. Waterlogging and Salinity in Former Sind Two large areas in Former Sind make up the principal regions of damaging waterlogging and soil salinity in West Pakistan. One of these is the broad plain of the upper Sind, stretching 200 miles along the right side of the Indus from Dadu, 75 miles above Hyderabad, to Kandhkot and Kashmor. The northern half of this region will be watered by the new Gudu Barrage canals; to the south, perennial and seasonal irrigation is furnished by the canals of the Sukkur Barrage. "'Water lies all the year round in some ..depressions; other low spots becomes marshy during summer, but dry up in winter. Even in lands not directly affected by waterlogging, many of the finer-textured soils are so impermeable and puddled that cultivation is dif'ficult or impossible. "Almost all unirrigated lands are covered with a crust of salt and as salinity increases in extent and severity, so lands fall into disuse. Large areas of cultivated land have been abandoned. Most areas are now affected ,by surface salts, but the condition can still be ameliorated to a certain extent by giving heavy applications of irrigation water." (32) During the summer season, rice is grown over most of this area. Irrigation water, furnished principally in the summer, stands in the rice fields and is frequently renewed. Winter crops, called dubari, are grown with residual soil moisture from the summer irrigation. Surveys by Hunting (32) Landforms, Soils and Land Use of the Indus Plains, West Pakistan, published for the Government of Pakistan by the Government of Canada; A Colombo Plan Cooperative Project; February 1958. 59



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Appendix A.5 water could make to the gross value of the crops produced. It would have been equally logical to define it as the decrease in the gross value of crops that would result from the loss of one acre-inch of water. In some circumstances these two definitions can give substantially different results. When this happens the marginal value of water cannot be defined unambiguously, and any value in the range spanned by the incremental definition and the decremental definition will serve. The marginal value of water is then said to be discontinuous. The practical effect of a discontinuity in the marginal value of water is that it is impossible by iteration to determine an initial guess that will result in a confirming estimate of the marginal value. But something nearly as useful occurs. If the initial guess is correct the decremental definition will give an estimate that is higher than the initial guess and the incremental definition will give an estimate that is lower. For a guess slightly below the correct one either definition will give an estimate that is higher than the guess; for a guess slightly greater than correct either definition will give an estimate that is lower than the guess. Thus a guessed marginal value of irrigation water can be found by iterating until the corresponding estimate changes abruptly from being above the guess to being below it, or vice versa. This guess will be the one that generates the optimal allocations of land and water among crops. One or two technical aspects of our calculations should be mentioned to make the description more precise. There are two kharif crops, cotton and sugar cane, whose growing seasons overlap the Rabi season, and one flabi crop, oil seeds, whose growing season overlaps Kharif. An acre devoted to any of these crops therefore cannot be used for double-cropping and in consequence in setting up the linear programming problem for the optimal land allocation such a crop must be considered to absorb land in both the Kharif and the Rabi seasons. Furthermore, those crops require water from the supplies available in both seasons. As we set up the linear programming problem we sought for the allocation of land among crops that would make the net value produced as great as possible without using more land or water than was available in either the Kharif or Rabi seasons. Thus there were a total of four constraints imposed on the cropping pattern, two for supplies of land and two for supplies of water. One property of linear programming solutions is that typically they do not recommend the use of more methods for employing the resources at hand than there are resources. In the present context, therefore, a linear programming solution would recommend the growth of at most four different crops. Since this was deemed unrealistic, a number of additional constraints were imposed on the solution, namely that in no case would the acreage 426



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Chapter 7 cell is printed in matrix form. Following the execution of the feedback phase, the ground water elevation in each cell with a well is printed in a tableau which includes the results of the feedback computation. (vi) Termination Each 50 -year simulation requires between 3 and 4 minutes on the IBM 7090 Computer. When the run is complete, the program searches for additional input data (another run), and if none is indicated the program terminates. The program requires approximately 20,000 binary instructions, and is written in the FORTRAN II language. Investigations with the Multiwell Model Twelve runs were made on a 5 x 5 matrix of 25 cells and three runs on a 25 x 1 matrix. The topographical pattern used with the square matrix is shown on Figure 7.22, and the pump locations for the twelve runs made with this matrix are indicated in Figure 7.23., In these studies rainfall and canal inflows were treated as deterministic rather than stochastic inputs. Also the random components in evaporation and other feedback parameters were set equal to zero. The following assumptions were made for these runs: the well field has an impervious boundary -this would be the case, for example, if an infinite plane were filled by a square lattice of sets of twenty-five wells each; the transmissibility of the aquifer is 100,000 gallons per day per foot and the storage coefficient is 0.2 5; each,-Cell has perennial irrigation; seasonal rainfall is based on a weighted average calculated from four stations in or near Chaj Doab -the mean rainfall was15.6 inches per year; the maximum evapotranspiration potential used in the evaporation feedback relation is 48 inches per year; inflow from canals averaged 1.67 acre feet per acre per year and the seasonal distribution is the same as that used in the Project No. Two Feasibility Reports for Chaj Doab;(21) and all of the tubewell effluent is recirculated to crops -no drains are used since the principal objective was to assess the ability of the tubewells to lower the water table at different rates of pumping. The operating policy for each cell containing a pump was the following: During each season the rate of pumping is set to provide, if possible, sufficient water which when augmented by the incoming canal water will offset leakage and other losses and will meet the irrigation water requirement (target) for that season. In a cell during a run in which that cell has no pump, the capacity of the pump for that cell is set equal to zero. Irrigation water continues to be supplied to the cell from canals. However, without pumping the irrigation target may not be met. (21)Tipton and Kalmbach. "Project No. Two Feasibility Report for Chaj Doab" (1961). 312



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Chapter The Board should be reconstituted to include the Secretary of Irrigation, the Secretary of Agriculture, the Chairman of WAPDA, and the Chairman of ADC. (And perhaps renamed -for example, the Land and Water Development Board.) To these might be added the Secretary for Labor and Cooperatives, the Secretary for Local Government and Basic Democracies, and a Finance member. The Chairman of the Board should be a senior official of the rank of additional Chief Secretary. The Board should report to the Minister of Agriculture, Food, and Irrigation, and it should have full powers to delegate to a Director in each Project Area. The Board should be generous in delegating to the Project Director. He must have authority to supervise and direct the Project personnel, including seconded officers from other agencies, not merely to coordinate their activities. To respond adequately to new technology and to increasing complexity, accelerated development requires adaptation of traditional forms and practices of public administration. Current examples of effective de centralization, delegation, and flexibility designed to expedite develop ment exist in Pakistan. Our plan requires all of these, but perhaps to a greater degree than any present effort. Selection of Project Areas in the Former Punjab In principle, agricultural production can be increased most cheaply on good land. In other words, for a given investment in time, money, and human effort, a greater increase in agricultural production can be obtained in areas that are neither waterlogged nor excessively salinated. Less and cheaper drainage is required on 'non-waterlogged lands, and less leaching on non -salinated lands. On good lands, in areas where the groundwater is not too slaine, production could be more than doubled by providing more water (and water at the right time) from wells, plus minimal amounts of fertilizer. As shown in Chapter 5, a doubling of production on presently cultivated good land could' d be accomplished in the following way: On the average, the yield from present crops could be increased 5 to 10 percent simply by providing en-ough water to equal the amount of evapotranspiration during the growing season; additional water to meet the leaching requirement would give a further 5 to 10 percent yield increase. Fallow land, which now makes up 7 to 15 percent of the cultivated area, could be virtually eliminated with water plus fertilizer; the, intensity of cropping could be raised by 30 to 40 percent; and the cropping pattern could be 139



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Chapter 6 Fruit, Vegetable, and Specialty rops Currently, fruit and vegetable crops are relatively valuable for Pakistani farmers close to sizable urban markets. For example, farmers in the Hyderabad area reported gross revenues of greater than Rs 350 and Rs 1000 per acre for onions and potatoes, respectively. Carrots and cauliflower were also said to be profitable, although all vegetable prices were reported to have large seasonal variations. Tree crops are another means for increasing income. In Former Sind there were reports of mangoes and bananas netting more than Rs 2000 per acre. In the case of bananas, some farmers reported revenues of greater :than Rs 10.000 per acre. Citrus fruit production has been profitable around Quetta and Peshawar, and possibilities of expanding citrus production in other areas should be explored, keeping in mind, however, the low soil-salt tolerance of these crops. The potential of expanded fruit and vegetable production appears high. Growing urban markets within Pakistan could absorb much greater quantities than are now being supplied. In addition, there are large potential export markets for fresh and canned fruits and vegetables, especially in Western Europe. An expansion of specialty crops will take a concerted effort on several fronts. Research will be required to adapt varieties to West Pakistan conditions. Development of storage, transportation, and marketing facilities will be nece sary before these products will be profitable enterprises for Pakistani farmers. Quality control, selection of appropriate varieties, the development of standards, and grading will be. especially important in producing for an export market. The problems will be difficult to overcome; however the possible gains from doing so are large. Some indication of the variety of products that might be grown in West Pakistan can be obtained from data on the irrigated arid valleys of California. These regions, which have climates and soil conditions similar to those in parts of the Indus Plain, are a center of specialty-crop production in the United States. Tables 6.1 and 6.2 summarize farm experience in adapting various vegetables and fruits to the climatic and soil conditions of desert valleys in 246



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Chapter 3 countries demonstrates that acceptance by the people occurs only when the objectives are closely related to the immediate self-interest of the cultivators. To enlist and retain the support of the farmers in shifting from subsistence level agriculture to intensive cultivation, several factors are important. A supply service for fertilizers, seeds, pesticides, and farm implements must be developed which meets its commitments on schedule. This is essential from the start of each project. Exhortations to use better seeds and to fertilize in advance of the next irrigation are damaging if the seeds or the fertilizers are not available when needed. A breakdown in this type of service may be even more serious than the immediate loss in production; such a failure may cause farmers to resist any later attempt to introduce changes. The dependency among multiple innovative steps requires that farmer's expectations be met at each step. An analogous problem relates to the size of the change that is introduced at one time. The minimum increment should produce a visible benefit. The maximum increment should not present such a discrepancy from conventional practice that it appears to be improbable or unlikely to succeed. In a pro gram of innovation, the size of the increment can increase with experience and demonstrated success. But the initial changes should be familiar, modest, and reasonably certain. The objective is to develop quickly a sense of the art of the possible among a high percentage of the farmers. Larger changes can then be accomplished as the program of intensification develops. A reward system is useful in communicating a sense of desire for change to a group of people. The aims of the plan are simple and broad -to increase agricultural productivity per worker and per acre -thereby improving the lot of the farmers and the nation. But for the individual farmer, other explicit rewards over and above an increase of productivity per acre are needed. Medals, prizes, trips, national recognition by the President of Pakistan, could all play their part. Competitions could be organized within the administrative units of each project area -from the smallest sub -unit to the whole project. Prizes could be established for different classes of participants, such as those having different types or sizes of holding, and for different crops. Winners should receive the kinds of prizes that will provide newsworthy and gossipworthy events. The implementation of the developmental program should be coordinated with the efforts for organization of rural society to strengthen the democratic base. By providing immediate opportunity for self -improvement and full participation in development, new vigor can be created in the voluntary political groups of the Basic Democracies program. 137



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Chapter I Agricultural production in West Pakistan would need to be increased about 15 percent to feed the additional livestock that are needed to meet the deficit in animal protein. When this is added to the 10 percent deficit in the caloric content of the present human diet, it is clear that either the import of food and feed grains would have to be nearly tripled or, if food imports ceased, agricultural production of West Pakistan would have to be increased by at least 35 percent to provide an adequate diet for the present population. Implicit in the above discussion is the assumption that the available food supply will be equally distributed throughout the population. It is more likely that the distribution of food is uneven-more than half the people have access to less than half the available food supply. In an investigation(27) of food consumption relative to income levels of several hundred persons in rural areas of the Former Punjab, half the individuals studied, consumed only 40 percent of the available food (in terms of calories), while the remaining half consumed 60 percent. Without an actual nutrition survey and a study of possible food deficiency symptoms among the people, it is difficult to know whether the diets of West Pakistan are dangerously low in vitamins, minerals and other essential minor nutrients. However, it is almost certain that average diets would be greatly improved if they contained a larger proportion of fruits, vegetables and other protective foods. An increase in fruit and vegetable production would require a considerable rise in the level of agricultural productivity because these crops do not average as many calories per acre as sugar cane and food grains. Although crop production fluctuates rather widely from year to year, the average yearly increase is about 2 percent and tends to be a fixed tonnage amount rather than a geometrical increase. With the present rate of population growth, this means that by 1970, the gap between food supply and human needs will have widened by about 10 percent. Of course, it is not necessary for even an agricultural region to be selfsufficient in food production. There are many prosperous agricultural economies, for example Hawaii and the meat-raising regions of the Western United States, that are heavily specialized and import thebulk of the foodstuffs. This is not the case in West Pakistan. If an agricultural nation is to (27) Board of Economic Inquiry, Punjab; Pub. No. 121. The poorer half of the population obtained only 26 percent of total animal proteins; the wealthier half obtained 74 percent. 51



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Table A.5.4 Illustrative Optimal Cropping Pattern for a Million Acre Tract Crop Thousands of Acres Cotton 105 Sugarcane 174 Maize 439 Rice 10 Bajra 10 Wheat 356 Gram 60 Oilseeds 32 Barley 6 Fodder Kharif 80 Rabi 117 Gross cropped acres 1389 437



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Table 2.8 Influence of nitrogen supply on yield increase of Bermudagrass from soil desalination. Salt content Yield increase from soil desalination* of soil before desalination Low nitrogen Adequate nitrogen ,! I7, % ,,% % I, .05 0 5 .10 1 16 .20 ,,6 41 I, .30 10 78 .40 ,, 14 140 Saturation water percentage of soil 33 From data of the Salinity Laboratory, U. S. Department of Agriculture, Riverside. California. 125



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A--ppendix A. 8 Category and Type of PriSProject No. Study Noll/ ority' Description Project 15 A 1 (3) Pay and allowances E (4) Organization and administration (5) Participation of American and other foreign experts IV. Education and Communications Project 16 SS 1 Modification of school curricula for E agricultural development-modes of introduction of agricultural knowledge at the primary level Project 17 SS 2 Assessment of technical college and E university curricula in agriculture, engineering and economics Project 18 SS 2 Development of adult education in E agriculture, engineering, and administration a. Farmers b. Front line workers c. Government officers d. Industrial Supervisors Project 19 E 2 Trials of mass communication media for dissemination of agricultural and related engineering and economic knowledge a. Radio b. Television See footnotes at end of table. 450



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West Pakistan, Water and Power Development Authority, Water and Soils Investigation Division, Bulletin, Lahore. No. 4, Pt. I. Soil survey, Chaj Doab, West Pakistan, Introduction and description of soils, by Hassan S. Zaidi and Abdul Rahman Khan, 20 p., 1961. No. 4, Pt. II. Soil survey, Chaj Doab, West Pakistan, Location and distribution of soils, Unit no. 1, Malikwal-Sahiwal area, by Hassan S. Zaidi, Abdul Rahman Khan and Jamil Ahmed, 3 p. accompanied by maps and tables, 1961. No. 4, Pt. III. Soil survey, Chaj Doab, West Pakistan, Location and distribution of soils, Unit no. 2, Kot Momin -Lollian area, by Hassan S. Zaidi, Abdul Rahman Khani and Jamil Ahmed, 15 p. accompanied by maps, 1961. No. 4, Pt. IV. Soil survey, Chaj Doab, West Pakistan, Location and distribution of soils, Unit no. 3, Kunjah -Mandi Bahauddin area, by Abdul Rahman Khan, Hassan S. Zaidi and Mohammed Sharif, 16 p. accompanied by maps, 1961. ---Technical paper. No. 1. Analysis of precipitation data from Rechna, Chaj and Thal Doabs, by Ijaz Ahmed Sheikh, 5 p. accompanied by maps and tables, 1960. No. 2. Analysis of aquifer tests in Rechna and Chaj Doabs, by Abdul Hameed Arif and Ata-ur-Rahman, 10 p. accompanied by maps and tables, 1960. No. 3. Analyses of low flow discharge records for the rivers Ravi, Chenab and Jhelum, by Aslam Qureshi, 7 p. accompanied by maps and tables, 1960. White, Gilbert E., Science and the future of arid lands: Paris, UNESCO, 95 p., 1960. Wiegand, C. L., and Lemon, E. R., A field study of some plant-soil relations in aeration: Soil Science Society of America, Proceedings, 22 (3), p. 216-221, May-June, 1958. Williams, M. Dean, Stratigraphy of the lower Indus Basin, West Pakistan: World Petroleum Congress, 5th, New York Proc. sec. 1, 1959. Willson, R. J., USBR's lower-cost canal lining program: American Society of Civil Engineers, Irrigation and Drainage Division, Journal, 84 (pt. 1-1R2), p. 1-30, (ASCE. Proceedings (1589)) April, 1958. Willson, R. J., and Jones, C. W., Progress report on the sediment lining of irrigation canals, lower-cost canal lining program: Denver, Commissioner's Off., U.S. Dept. of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation, 21 e, 1955. Wilsdon, B. H., and Bose, N. K., A gravitational survey of the suballuvium of the Jhelum-Chenab-Ravi Doabs and its application to the problem of waterlogging: Punjab Irrigation Research Institute, Research Publication, v. VI, no. 1, Lahore, 1934. 406



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Chapter 2 already received substantial additions of phosphorus fertilizer, initial application of 30 to 60 pounds Of P205 per acre would seem in order. Subsequent additions of this size should be made every 2 or 3 years. With a general improvement of practices, and especially with more water, farmers will undoubtedly find even greater use of fertilizer to be profitable. The probable economic benefits from increased fertilization will be discussed in greater detail in Chapter 5. Recent and Planned Use of Nitrogen Fertilizers In 1955-56, only 32,000 tons of ammonium sulfate, equivalent to 7,000 tons of nitrogen, were used in West Pakistan. This was applied on 340 thousand acres with an average dose of about 40 pounds of nitrogen to the acre. All of this fertilizer was imported. By 1959-60, nitrogen fertilizer consumption had increased to about 90,000 tons, and in 1960-61 to 160,000 tons (in terms of ammonium sulfate). The equivalent amounts of nitrogen were 20,000 and 34,000 tons, sufficient to fertilize 1.0 million and 1.7 million acres, respectively, with an average of 40 pounds of nitrogen. Table 2. 4. 1 shows the amounts of fertilizers applied on different crops in West Pakistan over the five years from 1955-56 to 1959-60. Although we have not been able to find numerical data on the proportions of phosphate and nitrogen fertilizers used during these years, probably at least 90 percent was nitrogen. Over the five-year period, the fertilized area increased from 1 percent to 3 percent of the total cultivated acreage in West Pakistan. Fertilizer was not applied to all crops, but was used selectively on those where high returns could be anticipated. In 19 59-60, 15 percent of the acreage planted to sugar, 7 percent of the maize, and at least 5 percent of fruit and vegetable lands were fertilized, while only about 3 percent of the rice, cotton, and wheat fields were covered. More than half of the fertilizer used during 1959-60, and about three-fourths of that used in 1960-61, was imported, at costs in foreign exchange of close to $2.5 and $6 million. Most of the remaining 40-45,000 tons was produced in the ammonium sulfate plant at Daudkhel, at an estimated cost of about Rs 14 million, equivalent to $3 million. Adding costs of distribution, the total expenditure for fertilizer in 1959-60 was about 30 million rupees, equivalent 102



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Table 2. 4 Observed and Estimated Responses of Different Crops to Nitrogen Fertilizer in Irrigated Areas of West Pakistan Average Amount Increase yield of in lbs. without Yield Nitrogen of crop fertilizer increase applied per lb. Source of Data lbs. /acre lbs. /acre % lbs./acre of N Wheat Farm Experience (171 Cultivators) 820 305 37 22.5 13.5 Wahhab-Vermaat Experiments 1,410 330 23 30 10.9 Planning Commission Estimate 775 280 36 34 8.2 Wahhab-Vermaat Experiments 1,460 395 27 60 6.6 Wahhab (1960) Estimate -330-410 -34-39 9.7-10.5 Rice Farm Experience (Cleaned) (24 Cultivators) 885 235 28 24 9.8 Planning Commission Estimate 900 245 27 34 7.2 Wahhab (1960) Estimate -270 -34-39 6.9-7.9 Maize Farm Experience (44 Cultivators) 1,285 695 54 29 24.0 Planning Commission Estimate 1,050 495 47 34 14.6 Wahhab (1960) Estimate -410 -68 6.0 Cane Sugar Farm Experience (Cur) (82 Cultivators) 2,390 935 39 34 27.6 Planning Commission Estimate 2,640 990 38 69 14.4 Wahhab (1960) Estimate -820-1,230 -69 11.9-17.8 Cotton Farm Experience 505 210 42 25 8.4 (Seed & Lint) (134 Cultivators) Planning Commission Estimate 550 165 30 52 3.2 Wahhab (1960) Estimate -205-245 -52-59 3.9-4.1 Tobacco Planning Commission Estimate 1, 300 180 14 34 5. 3 Fruits Planning Commission Estimate 7, 000 990 14 52 19.0 Potatoes Planning Commission Estimate 7,000 990 14 52 19.0 Wahhab(1960) Estimate -1,600-3,200103 15.5-31.0 119



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Chapter 5 We have not been able to obtain data on the response of crops other than wheat to phosphate. Estimated responses of other crops to nitrogen have been published by the Planning Commission of Pakistan. We have used these data to prepare Table 5.9, which shows the increases in yield that might be expected from the application of 249 million pounds (124,000 short tons) of nitrogen to selected crops in five canal-irrigated Districts of the Punjab. These Districts, containing about nine million sown acres, are Lyallpur, Shahpur, Lahore, Montgomery, and Multan. The acreage sown to different crops and the prices assumed in Table 5.9 are the average for the decade 1949-50 to 1958-59. In our calculations, we have assumed that nitrogen is applied only to those crops in which a marked net increase in value can be obtained. For rice, wheat, maize, fodder, and tobacco, we have taken 30 pounds of nitrogen per acre. For fruits, vegetables, and cotton, we have assumed 45 pounds per acre, and for cane sugar, 60 pounds. The average application over the total sown area, including crops assumed not to be fertilized, such as gram, oil seeds, barley, and millets, is slightly less than 28 pounds to the acre. Except, for tobacco, which is a relatively minor crop, by far the highest net increase in value, Rs 171 to the acre, is obtained from sugar. The increase in yield of raw sugar (gur) is nearly a thousand pounds per acre. Fruits and vegetables show similar increases in yield, but smaller net increases in value. The increase in yield for maize is about half that for sugar, and the net increase in value about a third. For the entire sown area in these Districts, the computed increase in yield, not counting fodder crops, is over 800,000 tons, close to 27 percent of the average yield without fertilizer, and the net increase in value is over Rs 225 million, or 17.percent. Although this computed average increase in yield is quite impressive from an over-all point of view, the experience of the individual farmer may not be very effective in convincing him of wne value of using fertilizers. Depending on weather and other circumstances, the yield per acre on small plots without fertilizer can vary from year to year by much more than 20 percent. Moreover, in the 610 trials conducted by Wahhab, there was a considerable variability from one plot to another, even with supposedly identical amounts of fertilizer and water. Gross benefit-to-cost ratios from fertilizer use vary directly with crop prices received by the farmers, as well as inversely with fertilizer costs. Crop prices 196



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Chapter 1 D. G. Khan Districts. These receive perennial canal irrigation from the upper Indus barrages. The remainder of the cultivated land in these two Districts consists of piedmont plains, some of which are watered from inundation canals and the remainder by hill torrents and sparse rainfall. In Former Bahawalpur, cover and meander flood plains occupy about 2.5 million acres, and culturable sand plains another 1.0 million acres. In Former Sind (including Khairpur), cover and meander flood plains occupy approximately 12 million acres, while the active flood plain of the Indus extends over 1.2 million acres. In summary, if we consider that the bars (4.5 million acres), the meander and cover flood plains (26.6 million acres), and portions of the rolling and level sand plains (3.8 million acres), have the most actual or potential promise for productive agriculture, we arrive at a total of around 35:, million acres in the Indus Plain which could warrant intensive development, provided the soils were sufficiently permeable and not uneconomically saline as they appear to be in parts of southern Former Sind. This compares with the present gross sown area under canal irrigation of about 23 million acres and the culturable area presently commanded by canals from the river barrages of about 30 million acres. The Water Weather and Climate From the meteorological standpoint, West Pakistan must be considered in its relation to the entire Indian Subcontinent and the Himalaya, Kara Korum, and Hindu Kush Mountains. The Province itself is characterized by great physiographic contrasts between the mountains to the north, the intervening foothills and the Indus Plain to the south. These contrasts are reflected in the regimes of precipitation, air temperature, humidity, and evapotranspiration. Throughout the Indus Plain, most of the rain falls during the monsoon period-June to October. Winter rains, generally one to two inches, usually come in December and January. Average Annual Rainfall In the outliers of the Himalyan foothills, in the northern parts of the Districts of Sialkot, Gujrat, and Jhelum, in Rawalpindi, and in eastern Attock 27



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Chapter 7 which serve as sumps and dissipate the water to the atmosphere by evaporation and transpiration. The sumps can be regarded as inefficient wells which may be used to speed dewatering. Consequently, if the pumps are located in the high ground the rate of lowering in these regions will be rapid.(22) Eventually, however, if the pumping rate is sufficiently high, the pressure gradients of the water table will be reversed and ground water will flow laterally from the low to the high regions and the advantage of the former sumps, as evaporating basins, gradually disappears. The overall results for the twelve runs with the 5 x 5 matrix corroborate the results obtained with the electric analogue computer in showing that with the average pumping rates recommended by our plan the dewatering will be rapid and effective. This was found to be true for all configurations of pumps. The gross rate of pumping (including back-seepage from water courses) for the non -saline areas of the Former Punjab as calculated in the water budget was 1.77 acre feet per acre per year. The drawdown at this rate may be read from Figure 7.26, which shows average drawdowns after forty years of pumping for all runs, as 135 feet. This result corresponds to a lowering of 135 (30)/40 = 101 feet in 30 years, and accords closely with the result obtained from the analogue computer in this range. For regions where lateral infiltration is small we recommend lowering the ground water table to a depth of 100 feet in 30 years. Effect of Pumping in Tubewell Fields of Different Sizes The multiwell model was used to investigate the rate of lowering of the water table at fixed rates of pumping in project areas of different size. As stated in a previous section, small project areas have a relatively large perimeter, and the effect of lateral infiltration of ground water from adjoining areas not being pumped, will be high. If the lateral infiltration is large, the dewatering and desalination process will be retarded or inhibited completely. Waterlogging and salinity will continue to impair agricultural production. To investigate to effect of pumping in regions 'of different size, the multiwell model was deployed in a 25 x 1 matrix; pumping was provided in six cells and nineteen had no pumps. The project areas were taken to be rectangular with a ratio of the long side to the short side sufficiently large such (22)There are two distinct but complementary advantages gained in setting the first tubewells in a project on relatively high ground: Mi the advantage, mentioned here, relating to the rapid lowering of the water table; and (ii) the superior quality of the water in these areas as discussed in the section "Problems in Regions Having Excessive Salinity in Soil and Ground Water." 314



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Table 1.14 (Continued) Data in parentheses are our estimates. Sources: Column (1) From "Nutritive Value of Food Stuffs and Planning of Satisfactory Diets in Pakistan: Part I. Composition of Raw Food Stuffs"; Institute of Chemistry, Pakistan University, Lahore; 1960; pp. 1-34. (2) See (1) (3) From Table 9, p. 9, "Food Balances in Foreign Countries: Part II, Estimates for 12 Countries in the Far East"; Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, FAS-M-l01; October 1960. (4) From Table 1.7 (5) Assuming population was 36.5 million people, interpolated from Table 1.3. (6) See (5) (7) See (5) (8) Computed from estimates in Section on Livestock and Poultry in text; these refer to 1960. The percentage of milk cows in the cattle and buffalo population, the proportion of milk used as human food, and milk production per cow, are based on estimates by Hunting Technical Services for the Khairpur project area. 87



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Chapter 1 Storage and Transportation In 1960, storage capacity was available in West Pakistan for 630,000(19) tons of food grains, about 10 percent of domestic consumption. A. quarter of this capacity was in the port of Karachi and three-quarters in the interior of the province. The second five-year plan calls for increasing storage capacity to 1.08 million tons by 1965, with one-third being in Karachi and two-thirds up country. Most storage capacity is in Government godowns, usually wooden sheds with a raised floor in which bagged grain is stacked. These Government storage facilities are designed primarily to facilitate distribution of imported and domestically produced grain to the cities. Wheat and rice storage facilities were filled to capacity during the first half of 1962. Long distance transportation of agricultural commodities is principally by rail; short-haul feeder traffic is handled chiefly by bullockor cameldrawn carts. All urban centers are connected by roads capable of handling trucks and automobiles, but the secondary roads to many villiages are inadequate for motor vehicle traffic. Credit There are three main sources of credit: individuals, cooperatives and Government institutions. Most loans are advanced by landlords, relatives or other village members. Lessthan 10' percent of the needs for agricultural credit are met by farmer cooperatives. Credit furnished by individuals -represents, in part, simply advance purchase of crops at depressed prices. To provi de additional sources of short term funds, the Government created the Agricultural Development Finance Corporation and the Agricultural Bank of Pakistan. These two institutions were merged in 1961 to become the Agricultural Development Bank of Pakistan. The Government subscribed more than 50 percent of the shares of the bank. A, rural credit. fund has been established within the State Bank of Pakistan to provide medium and long-term loans and to supply funds to co -operatives. (20) (19) Government of Pakistan, Planning Commission, "Construction of Food Grain Storage," Karachi, 1962. (20) Hussain, S.A., "Agricultural Credit in Pakistan" Proceedings of the First Near-East South Asia Seminar, University of Ceylon, April 1961, pp 27-34, 1961. 48



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Chapter 5 the area of Khairpur, and this inadequacy, plus its unequal distribution throughout the year, causes water to be a very limiting factor. Water is particularly scarce in January, May and June, and tubewells within the region, or in areas upstream can help to alleviate this shortage. Possible Economic Benefits from Tubewell Water For the cropping pattern and acreage of Model 1B in Table 5.14, all the available canal water would be used in October, March, April, and May, and 10,000 acre feet above canal supplies would be required in January. In the Khairpur Feeder West area, the additional water could be supplied from local tubewells. But it would be uneconomical to operate the wells during only one month. If a sufficient number of wells were constructed to supply a maximum of 12,700 acre feet per month to the cultivated fields (approximately 185 cusecs if we allow an additional 20 percent capacity for recycling and non-beneficial evapotranspiration) it would be possible to provide water for 17,200 acres of orchards. Subtracting the reduction in milk and meat production resulting from the need for more bullocks to work the added acreage, the increase in gross value from this 17,200 acres would be Rs 50 lakh. The total value of water pumped would be 50,000 acre feet and tubewells would be operated during the months of January, March, April, May and October. A further marked increase in production over Model 1B in Table 5.14 could be achieved with a relatively modest increment of tubwell water, provided the cultivated acreage could be increased to 90 percent of the culturable commanded area. This would allow an addition 39,700 acres to be cropped during Rabi. The total area cultivated duringthis season would be 233,000 acres, counting the additional crops of sugarcane and orchards. To widen the cropping pattern and bring up the production of cereals and proteins, the added Rabi acreage could be planted in wheat and winter fodder, even though higher -valued market crops such as orchards would give a slightly greater return.(10) To balance the production of livestock nutrients and provide some more food grains 23,100 acres could be planted in Kharif to summer fodder and sorghum. The resulting cropping pattern (including the 17,200 acres of orchards previously discussed) is shown in Table 5.19. This is not a recommended pattern, but is given simply for purpose of illustration. (10) It would be possible to put this 17,200 acres into sugarcane, which would in principle yield 40 percent more per acre (not counting costs of seed or fertilizer), but the postulated increase in sugarcane acreage in Model 1B represents 5 percent of the total West Pakistan sugar acreage, and marketing uncertainties suggest that the sugar acreage should not be further expanded. 211



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Chapter 5 One of the most obvious and pressing agricultural improvements is the expansion of the use of fertilizer. The minimum benefits obtainable from the use of fertilizers can be estimated on the basis of present cropping patterns with the plant varieties and irrigation and cultural practices now in use. In Table 2. 3 of Chapter 2 we have summarized the results of an extensive series of field trials on wheat, grown in farmers' fields under existing farming conditions, conducted by Professor Abdul Wahhab of the Agricultural College at Lyallpur, in collaboration with Dr. J. G. Vermaat of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. These results are translated into economic terms in Table 5.8 in'which it is assumed that the farmer's selling price of wheat is Rs 12.8 per maund, and his cost of fertilizer is Rs 0.475 per pound for both nitrogen and phosphate as P2 05. It will be seen that, even with applications as high as 60 pounds of nitrogen and 60 pounds of phosphate to the acre, the value of the increased yield was twice the cost of fertilizer. The net increase in value was Rs 64 per acre, equivalent to $ 13. From the standpoint of the peoples' food supply, the gross increase of 9.5 maunds per acre, worth Rs 121, from such heavy applications, is significant since it could be obtained at a cost in foriegn exchange of () less than $ 4, whereas an equal amount of imported wheat would cost about $ 25 As would be expected, the highest ratio of benefit to cost was obtained with smaller applications. For example, 30 pounds of nitrogen alone gave an increase in yield of 4 maunds to the acre, worth Rs 51, at a cost of Rs 14. When nitrogen was supplemented with 30 pounds of P20 51 the value of the average increase in yield was Rs 85 per acre, giving a net increase of Rs 57, equivalent to $12 an acre. The value of the additional wheat in terms of foreign exchange is about $18, obtained at a foreign exchange cost of around $2. The net benefit per acre with 30 pounds of nitrogen and 30 pounds Of P205 was only slightly less than that obtained by applying twice as much of these two plant nutrients. Stated differently, 60 pounds of nitrogen and 60 pounds Of P205 spread over two acres would give a net increase in crop value of 114 rupees, vs 64 rupees when the total amount is applied to one acre. Although Wahhab's experiments were not continued over several years, one would expect that a single application of phosphate would be sufficient for two or three years, while nitrogen should be added each time a crop is planted. Thus over a three-year period, a gross benefit of about Rs 255 per acre could be anticipated from a single application of 30 pounds Of P205 and an annual appli cation of 30 pounds of nitrogen, at a total cost of about Rs 60. This is a benefit to cost ratio of 4 to 1. (5) However, under present arrangements with the United States Government, wheat imports are paid for in rupees and do not represent a drain on foreign exchange. 195



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Appendix A.5 (with margins of error believed to be in the neighborhood of 10 percent) and the ratio of the yield of each crop to "normal" yield (with errors appraised often at 30 percent). The data on water supply, from both rainfall and canal irrigation, are believed to be of higher quality except for two problems. One is the effect of transit losses that intervene between canal diversion and the application of water to crops. In the absence of specific information, canal by canal, we have taken these losses to be uniformly 30 percent of diversions.~2 Second is the problem that the water supply data do not contain information on the division of the total water supply among crops. Much of our work, as will be seen below, was devoted to overcoming this deficiency. We had no information about the contribution of Persian Wheels and other nongovernmental sources of irrigation water. Therefore our estimates are of most significance in those areas where the unrecorded sources of water supply are relatively unimportant. Our estimating method is based on the relationship between soil moisture content and crop yields. Those considerations imply that if sufficient water is applied to keep the moisture tension low throughout the growing season, water availability will not limit crop growth or yield. Additional water supplied above the amount required to keep the moisture tension low will not increase yield and, after a point, is likely to bedeletorious. Thus there is a level of water supply at which yield reaches the maximum attainable in the light of all the other circumstances of the agricultural regime. We call this quantity of water the saturation amount, denoted by Si. (i for crop i). The saturation amount depends principally on the amount of water that the plants and the surrounding soil can evaporate during the period of plant growth. It appears that this quantity is not very different for different plants but depends mainly on humidity, wind, amount of sunlight and other meteorological conditions, and, of course, on the dates of seeding and harvest. Estimates of potential evapotranspiration by month for a number of points in the Punjab were provided by the U.S. Weather Bureau(3) and dates of seeding and harvest were taken from Crops, Vegetables, and Fruits in Pakistan. Potential evapotranspiration cumulated over the growing seasons provided estimates of the saturation quantities of water for each of the crops and canals analyzed. (2)This percentage is lower than the 46 percent of losses from canal diversions computed in Chapter 7, but the latter estimate was made at the river barrages and moreover it allows for an increase in seepage and non-benefical evapotranspiration from new link canals, and for increased seepage caused by lowering of the water table. (3)See Appendix A.1. 418



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Chapter 8 three headings: Program monitoring and evaluation, Socio-economic research, and Biologicalphysical research. Program Monitoring and Evaluation An experimental attitude should underlie every phase of the execution of the agricultural development program. Plans for the first one or two project areas must inevitably be based on the scanty sources of information now available, but one of the major missions of the early projects should be to provide sounder data for the guidance of later ones. They must be consciously organized to learn from experience. The mission requires, fundamentally, that the effectiveness of all programs be carefully monitored. This is already being done in connection with the hydrologic program. Beginning even before physical improvements are installed, studies are being made of the inter -relationships of watertable level, canal leakage, evaporation, rainfall and soil salinity. But at the same time, reliable data should be gathered on farm budgets, crop yields, and the factors influencing them. Extensive farm surveys and crop-cutting measurements will be needed for these purposes. As soon as the engineering works and agricultural improvement activities begin to go into effect the hydrologic changes caused by pumping, leaching, and cropping should be measured. The effects of the programs on farm incomes, cropping patterns, nutrition, morbidity rates, and the like should be measured frequently and the trends in crop yields should be observed. It is particularly important to monitor the effectiveness of the educational and agricultural extension phases of the work. Which devices for education and persuasion are most effective under the conditions of West Pakistan? What kinds of desirable change. do the farmers adopt readily, and what kinds do they resist? What factors influence the farmers' readiness to adopt improved practice? How effective, in practice,.are the credit and crop insurance aspects of the program? We need answers to all such questions for guidance in planning the subsequent project areas. In addition we need physical data on the responses; of crops to nutrients, on the responsiveness of soils to treatments, on the hydrologic regime. Data obtained in the field by an integrated statistical monitoring system are essential to finding the answers to all such questions. Some data will be generated automatically as a by-product of project administration; other data (e.g. farm budgets, crop yields) must be obtained from carefully designed periodic sample surveys. The first few projects should, in short, serve as experimental regions for the benefit of 365



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Table 7.5 Cost Analysis of Tubewell Water With Three Different Tubewell Spacings (Mining at rate of 100 feet in 30 years) (Dollars per net cultivated acre.) Mean Distance Between Tubewells 6000 feet 7350 feet 8500 feet 826 acres per pump 1239 acres per pump 1652 acres per pump Pump Cap. 4.14 cfs Pump Cap. 6.21 cfs Pump. Cap. 8.28 cfs Avg. Pump. rate Avg. Pump. rate Avg. Pump. rate 2.07 cfs 3.11 cfs 4.14 cfs, Capital Annual Capital Annual Capital Annual Cost Cost M&O Cost Cost M&O Cost Cost M&O 1. Capital Cost of Well & Appurtenances, Including 41 34.5 31.6 Electrification (transmission lines, substations, etc.) 2. Capital Cost of Drainage System (return flows 5 4.74.6 and flood drainage) 3. Capital Costs of Salt Export System: Salt water mining wells plus conveyance channels 6.6 6.6 6.5 4. Capital Costs of Transporting Pumped Water or 9.1 7.8 8.0 W Its Equivalent. (Canal enlargement + plus channels for pumping into canals) Total Capital Cost 61.7 53.6 50.7 5. M&O for Tubewell 0.83 0.59 0.46 6. Electrical Power Costs 3.77) 4.22 4.741 7. M&O of Drainage System 0.08 0.08 .07' 8. M&O of Salt-export System 0.07 0.07 .07) 9. Including power for Salt-mining Wells 0.05) .09 .lO. 10. M&O for Transporting pumped water or its equivalent (Canal enlargement + plus channels for pumping into canals 0.10 .09 .09 Total Annual Costs $4.90 $5.14 $5.53 Present Value of Future Power Costs $51.8 $58.1 $65.2 0



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Chapter 7 2rw Ground surface ____________ Water table,,/s Layer Cone h Saline Water P S 2re Layer a function of the degree of penetration such that only fresh water will be pumped; and (ii) the degree of penetration D/m for which the fresh water pumping rate is maximal. The pertinent boundary conditions are (a) no fluid moves across the interface between the two layers (that is no flow occurs in the saline layer); (b) the well surface is maintained at a constant head; (c) the head is constant and uniform at the boundary radius, re; and (d) the drawdown in the well must be sufficiently small that the salt cone does not rise above the lowest part of the well-screen, so that no flow occurs in the saline layer. The upconing of the salt layer can be formulated approximately by the Ghyben 'Herzberg relation that states for every foot of drawdown around a well the interface will rise Pf/( PsPf) feet. The solution of the problem is given by introducing the Ghyben-Herzberg relation(16) Sw = hs [( Ps -Pf)/ Pf] = (hm-D) [(Ps -Pf)/ Pf] into the formulation (16)Muskat, M., Flow of Homogeneous Fluids, McGraw-Hill, Inc. (1937) 299



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Appendix A. 8 Category and Type of PriProject No. Study No.4/ 24!y* Description Project 25 A 2 Model and field studies of movement SS and mixing of underground waters as affected by pumping and recharge Project 26 A 2 Development of methods for use of E small skimming" wells to recover thin layers of fresh water overlying salt water Project 27 A 2 Economics of electric power in a natural gas-rich area a. Comparative costs of thermal and hydro-electric power production b. Costs of power for different plant sizes as a function of changes in load factors with time c. Optimum plant locations as a function of transportation costs of electricity and natural gas d. Needs for village electricity and other power uses Project 28 A 3 Improvement of methods for ground E water recharge a. Maintenance of permeability of unsaturated zone b. Spreading of water in areas of high sub-surface permeability c. Design and treatment of canals d. Other methods See footnotes at end of table. 453



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Chapter 7 HYDROLOGY Introduction This chapter presents: (1) a brief description of the hydrological regime of the Indus Plain and the processes of waterlogging and salination of the farm lands; (2) a summary of the water budget for future develop ment of the region; (3) a discussion of the hydrological factors that have a bearing on the selection of a practical size of project areas for intensive agricultural development; (4) an analysis of the problems associated with those regions in which the ground water or the soil have excessive salinity; Sand (5) an evaluation of the efficacy of tubewell schemes for combatting waterlogging and salinity and for providing supplemental water supply for increasing agricultural production. This evaluation includes (a) a review of the advantages associated with the ability of tubewells to provide supplemental water at all seasons of the year so that the intensity of cropping can be increased; (b) an examination of the factors that determine the proper number and spacing of wells within and outside of the project areas; (c) an investigation of the rate of lowering of the ground water table from waterlogged zones with different rates of pumping; (d) a study of the question whether to locate the wells in the project areas on high ground or low ground so as to gain the maximum efficiency in elimination of waterlogging; and (e) an analysis of the merits and limita tions of lining canals, branches and watercourses with emulsion sealants as a means of reducing leakage and augmenting the water supply. Many of our calculations were carried out with digital and analogue computers. The computers have been used in new ways to cope with complex hydrological problems that heretofore have defied analysis. This new methodology has an intrinsic value aside from its application to the hydrology of the Indus River basin. The computer techniques that were developed are useful in two ways: (1) in obtaining answers to questions relating to the "macro -design" in the Indus Plain of huge systems of water-control devices--dams, tubewells, canals and drains-that arose during the investigation of the Panel; and (2) as potentially valuable tools of engineering analysis for future detailed studies (micro -design) of specific project areas. Therefore in arranging the order of topics in this chapter it was expedient to include special sections of description of analogue and digital computer techniques and application. This has perturbed to some extent what otherwise would have been a logical ordering of the many topics and problems investigated. For example, there is no single section in the chapter dealing with problems associated with the control of salinity and alkalinity, since some of these were solved by the analogue computer, some by the digital computer and others by 257



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Table 6.1 Vegetable Crops of the Irrigated Arid Valleys of California AdaptaPounds seed Distance apart Spacing of Average yield Crop bility per acre of rows, inches plants in per acre row, inches Artichokes Fair 2,722 plants 48 48 1tons Asparagus Good 5 60 double 2-4 60-80 crates Beans (green) Good 80 36 2 4,000 lbs. Beans (green) Good 80-100 36 2-4 4,000-5,000 lbs. Beans (green) Good 40-60 36 2-4 4,000-5,000 lbs. 40-60 36 2-4 5,000-6,000 lbs. Beans (green) Poor 70 36 3-4 Beets Good 8-10 42 double 6 Broccoli Good 1 36-42 12-18 Brussels Sprouts Fair 2 36-42 12-18 Cabbage Good 2 36-42 12-18 7-12 tons Cantaloupes Excel. 2 84 capped 18 160 crates open 12 Carrots Excel. 2-3 42 multiple not thinned 250 crates rows Cauliflower Good 3 42 18 Chicory Good 4 42 double 6 Chives Fair 3 36 double 3 Collards Fair 3 42 double 12-18 Corn Excel. 8-10 36 9-12 Cucumbers Good 2 60-84 24-36 3-10 tons Eggplant Good planted in 36 24 200 lugs beds will transplant to an acre 2 36 24 Endive Good 4 42 double 12 Garlic Good 900 lbs 36 double 3 5,000-7,000 Cloves Kohlrabi Fair 4 36 double 6 Lettuce Excel. 3 42 double 6 300 cartons Melons: Casaba Fair 2 84 24-48 500-800 flats Honeyball Excel. 2 84 12-24 200 crates Honeydew Excel. 2 84 24-48 500 flats Persian Fair 2 84 24-48 500 flats 252



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West Pakistan, Irrigation Dept., Dgta showing gains and losses (in cusecs) on River Indus between Sukkur & Kotri, 1947 to 1961, winter months October-April: n.p., I v., 1961. West Pakistan, Land Reforms Commission, Report, January, 1959: Lahore, Superintendent, Govt. Print. West Pakistan, 74, ix, 12 p., 1961. West Pakistan, Laws, statutes, etc., Water and Power Development Authority Act no. XXXI of 1958: Lahore, Mahmud Printing Press, 15 p., 1958. Laws, statutes, etc., the West Pakistan land utilization ordinance, 1959, West Pakistan ordinance no. XLVIII of 1959, an ordinance to provide for the utilization of proprietary waste and arable lands for growing food and other crops: The Gazette of West Pakistan (extraordinary issue, Registered no. L864) p. 787-796, August 31, 1959. West Pakistan, Planning and Development Dept., Bureau of Statistics, Land use & crop rotation patterns in the six northern divisions of West Pakistan, a preliminary report for the Lahore district: Lahore, 12 p., 1960. ---Land use and crop rotation patterns in the six northern divisions of West Pakistan, a preliminary report for Peshawar and Dera Ismail Khan Divisions: August, 1961. Statistics of West Pakistan, agricultural data, by division and district, 1947-48 through 1958-59: Lahore, 472 p., 1960. West Pakistan, Revenue and Rehabilitation Dept., Schedule of land revenue rates for crops grown on lands in Hyderabad and Khaipur Divisions, to take effect from Kharif, 1959, and schedule of water rates: Lahore, 5 p., 1960. West Pakistan, Soil Reclamation Board, Jaranwala reclamation scheme: Lahore (Pakistan), 165 p., 1961. West Pakistan, Water and Power Development Authority, Annual report, 1959-60: Lahore, 64 p., 1961. ---Capacity of the West Pakistan power grid, October 1, 1961: n.p., 2 sheets, 1961. ---Electrification programme for waterlogging and salinity control in the irrigated areas of West Pakistan: n.p., 4, 10 p., 1961. Indus Basin project link canals, special studies and investigations, lining of link canals: Denver, Lahore, Pakistan, Tipton and Kalmbach, 29 p., 1960. 404



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Table 5.15 Land, Requirements for Crops in Khairpur* Crops Requiring Land in Kharif Crops Requiring Land in Rabi (September) (November) 'Cotton Cotton Summer Fodder Rice Sorghum Wheat Summer Vegetables Oilseeds Rice Gram Winter Fodder Winter Fodder Sugarcane Winter Vegetables Orchards Sugarcane Orchards Commanded Culturable Area, Khairpur Feeder West: 258,857 acres *Source: Hunting Technical Services 227 Y



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Appendix A.. 5 The logic of the computing procedure that resolves these two decisions simultaneously is as follows. One condition for an efficient cropping pattern is that the contribution to the value of agricultural output of an additional acre-inch of water should be the same no matter which crop it is applied to. We shall call this contribution the marginal value of water. It, therefore, we make a guess as to'the marginal value of water., we can deduce from that guess and from the water response curves for the individual crops theproper amount of water to apply to each crop so that an additional acre-inch of water applied to that crop would produce an increase in yields whose market value was just equal to the guessed marginal value. This initial guess therefore determines the depth of irrigation, the yield per acre, and the gross value of output per acre of each crop. Furthermore, if we make an estimate of the out-of-pocket costs of producing each crop., this can be deducted from the gross market value per acre to attain an estimate of the net market value per acre devoted to each crop, which will measure the excess of the value produced over the value of the transferrable economic resources used in producing the crop. This information can be used to estimate the efficient number of acres to be devoted to each crop by using the criterion that the cropping pattern should maximize the excess of value of agricultural output over the value of transferrable resources absorbed, subject to the limitations on the amounts of land and water available. Arriving at this optimal allocation of acreage is a standard linear programming problem. It should be noted that this problem and the solution deduced from it depend on the initial guess as to the marginal value of irrigation water, since this guess determines the level of irrigation applied to each crop, the gross value produced per acre, and the net value produced per acre. One of the results of this linear programming computation is an estimate of how much the total net value produced could be increased if an additional acre-inch of irrigation water were available, that is in effect a new estimate of the marginal value of irrigation water. If this new estimate is the same as the original guess, the original guess is confirmed and the cropping pattern deduced is the most efficient attainable one. However, it is most unlikely that this desirable result will occur on the very first guess. It is then possible by iterating, that is by revising the initial guess in the light of the results of the solution of the linear programming problem, to arrive at an initial estimate of the marginal value of water which will be confirmed by the final estimate. The preceding paragraph describes the basic strategy of the approach to determining the optimal levels of irrigation and allocations of land for a given structure of prices., water response curves, water supply availability and land availability. One complication, however, is likely to arise that causes a slight divergence from the strategy just laid out. We defined the marginal value of water as the contribution that an additional acre-inch of 425



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Asghar, A. G., and Kanwar Sain, R, B., Effect of salts on bearing capacity of soils: (in India, Central Board of Irrigation, Annual Report (technical), p. 117-123, 1943. Asghar, A. G., Azhar, B. A., and Haider, Sajjad, A study into the economics of land and water use in land reclamation: Lahore, 67 p., (Pak. Assn. for the Advaacement of Sci., Land and water utilization monograph no. 1) 1960. Associated Rocky Mountain Universities, Pakistan-education, research, aad agricultural extension for the development of the Indus Basin: Boulder, Colo., 35 p., 1962. Auden, J. B., Introductory report on the ground water resources of western Rajasthan: Bull. Geol. Surv. Ind., ser. B, no. 1, 1950. Badurudin, Muhammad, Drainage by tube wells in Rechna Doab, West Pakistan: Pakistan Geographical Review, v. 16, no. 2, p. 27-45, 1961. Baker, Dorothy C., and Diggs, Helene T., Mineral resources of Pakistan: Mineral Trade Notes, v. 45, n. 6, Supplement no. 50, Dept. of Interior, U.S. Bureau of Mines, 1957, Beringer, Christoph, and Hadi, Abdul, Land fragmentation & size of agricultural holdings in the former north-west frontier province of West Pakistan: Peshawar, 47 p. (Board of Economic Inquiry, n-w.f., Peshawar University, Publication no. 8), 1962. Bernstein, Leon, Salt tolerance of field crops: Washington, U.S. Govt. Print. Off., 6 p#, (U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Agriculture Information Bulletin no. 217) 1960. Bernstein, Leon, and }ayward, H. E., Physiology of salt tolerance: Annual Review of Plant Physiology, 9, 25-46, 1958, Blackburn, W. C., The effect of micro-organisms on membranes proposed for low-cost canal lining -interim report: Denver, Commissioner's Off., 33 p., (U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, bituminous laboratory report no. B-16) 1950. --------A review of the use of chemical sealants for reduction of canal seepageilosses lower-cost canal lining program: Denver, Commissioners Off., 1 v., (U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, analytical laboratory report no. CH-102) 1960. Board of Economic Inquiry, Punjab, An economic survey of Kala Gaddi Thamman: Lahore, 200 p., (Punjab village surveys 4) 1932. -..Proprietary holdings in the Punjab--their size and distribution, preliminary report: n.p., 5 p., 1940. 381



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Table 1.17 Comparison of Agricultural Productivity in Different Countries and Regions* (Yields in pounds per acre) Sugar Cane Rice Sorghum Corn Cotton Raw Cleaned Wheat Barley (Jowar) (Maize) Lint Sugar Tobacco Pakistan 1950-54 795 750 540 445(1) 885 200 2,580(1) 1,360(l) 1958-59 820 695 605 945 185 India 1950-54 720 625 705 -640 100 -670 1958-59 810 650 690 -640 90 -635 Egypt 1950-54 2,240 1,805 1,865 -1,900 445 1958-59 2,305 2,090 2,130 -1,850 525 -Japan 1950-54 2,240 1,810 1,810 -1,305 -1,505 1958-59 2,765 2,005 1,960 -1,955 --1,855 Mexico 1950-54 1,040 790 635 -695 330 -900 1958-59 1,185 1,345 690 -750 450 -770 USSR 1950-54 -665(2) 750(2) 1,025 485 -915 1958-59 835(2) 900(2) -1,680 635 -945 90



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TABLE 1.1.1 Estimated Potential Evapotranspiration and Estimated Effective Precipitation for Representative Stations in West Pakistan (by Rabi and Kharif Seasons) Potential Evapotranspiration Effective Precipitation Station (inches) (inches) Rabi Kharif Rabi Kharif Lahore 13.5 40.8 1.8 8.4 Rawalpindi 11.1 36.5 4.0 14.0 Multan 15.0 44.6 <1 <3 Sialkot 12.5 40.2 3.3 12. 0 Hyderabad 22.3 48.1 0 2.8 Bahawalpur 16.2 45.8 <1 <3 Khanpur 18.7 50.0 <1 < 3 (Rahimyar Khan) Source: Appendix A. 1. 67



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CANAL INFLOW NET EVAPORATION (QR) y-z z DRAINAGE RETURN .uu')+(rrr'-r "UE WELL EFFLUENT NET THROUGH-PUT GROUND WATER (u'*+w+ r'-v) VI9TABLE CONSTANT v = EVAPORATION FROM GROUND WATER (u-u')= EVAPOTRANSPIRATION (r-r'rr') = EVAPORATION AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION FROM RAINFALL r = RAINFALL w = LEAKAGE TO GROUND WATER FROM CANALS, AND WATERCOURSES u = THROUGH-PUT FROM IRRIGATION WATER r = THROUGH-PUT FROM RAINFALL FIG. 7415 SCHEMATIC DIAGRAM OF SALT FLOW MODEL 351



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Appendix A.8 OUTLINE OF RESEARCH NEEDED FOR AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT IN WEST PAKISTAN Category and Type of PriProject No. Study No.4 ority* Description I,; Health and SS 1 Nutritional Surveys Nutrition Project 1 a. Food intake of family units by income level and region, in both rural and urban communities. b. Specific dietary inadequacies, by income level, region, and community size. c. Food preferences and potential for change, such as increased use of maize for human food. Project 2 SS 1 Economic Aspects of Rural Health a. Incidence and effects of dysentery, malaria, and deficiency diseases in the rural population. b. Health aspects of village water supplies. -~Project 3 A 2 Improvement of Protein Nutrition, including Potential sources of Amino Acids (1) Plant crops-soy beans, low temperature processed cottonseed meal (2) Fish protein concentrates (3) Synthetic amino acids (4) Other possibilities See footnotes at end of table. 443



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Chapter 3 tubewells in the project areas. Among other benefits, additional irrigation water from tubewells will permit intensification of cultivation; leaching salts out of the soil; lowering high groundwater tables; using increased amounts of fertilizer; attaining greater reliability and regulation of water supply; and using culturable land currently too high for the gravity supply from the canals. In effect, the missing sites for economical development of large surface storage can be replaced by the great underground lake of stored water. For the first 30 years after beginning the development of a project area, we recommend that in areas of fresh groundwater the water table be pumped down to a depth of about 100 feet, in addition to recovery of the recharge from canal leakage, rivers, and drains. After full development of all projects in Former Punjab and Former Bahawalpur, the total amount of water pumped each year would be 49 million acre feet (see Chapter 7). Of this amount, 7 million acre feet would be recycled, 4 million acre feet of saline well water would be disposed of by downstream transport in the rivers, 1 million acre feet of highly saline water would be disposed of in desert salt lagoons and about 2 million acre feet would be lost by non-beneficial evaporation, leaving a total of 35 million acre feet applied to the crops. This would be in addition to 24 million acre feet coming directly from canals, and about 7 million acre feet from ef fective rainfall, or a total of, say, 66 million acre feet. This is more than twice the present quantity of irrigation water and should be adequate for intensive cultivation of 16.4 million acres. In Chapter 7, we have given a proposed allocation of irrigation water from all sources between areas of relatively fresh groundwater and areas where the groundwater is too salty to be used without dilution. Unless economical methods of canal lining and reduction of downward percolation from irrigated fields can be developed, the canal irrigation water available for crops in Former Sind will be much smaller in a mount. Assuming the average canal diversion can total 44 million acre feet per year, as muoh as 11 million acre feet may be lost by canal and water course leakage and downward percolation from irrigated lands, and approximately 6 million acre feet by non-beneficial evapotranspiration. About 27 million acre feet per year will be available for crops. Effective precipitation will add another 2 million ao-re feet. We believe that between 4 and 12 million acre feet may be obtained from wells, primarily in the active flood plain of the Indus and in a ten to fifteen-mile wide zone along both sides of the river (See Chapter 7). The tubewells in Former Punjab will be drilled according to a roughly rectangular grid pattern, with a spacing between wells of one to one and 143



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Chapter 6 generated from first-phase applications of water and fertilizer to traditional. crops can increase the farmer" s asset position so that he can "afford" to diversify and to become more market oriented. The number of new products that need to be analyzed for each region in West Pakistan is very large. A complete analysis, or even a listing of all alternatives, is beyond the scope of this report. Nevertheless, it will be useful to present several diversification illustrations. It must be stressed that the major purposes of this discussion are to raise relevant questions, to set forth methods for analyzing alternatives, and to illustrate the types of data required for more precise analyses. Some of the alternatives presented may be economically enviable given present prices and production coefficients. This discussion also helps to point out possible conflict between production patterns designed to maximize farm income and those designed to correct diet imbalances. Increasing Animal Protein Production Livestock Alternatives Rising per capita incomes and growing urbanization will mean increased future demands for animal proteins to supplement diets that now consist largely of cereals. Sheep and cattle operations need to be established in advance of these demands, for it will take considerable time to develop herds, to create institutional arrangements for the purchase of factors and the sale of products, and to gain proficiency in management. Because livestock enterprises also may require larger units, different patterns of land settlement, and some redistribution of irrigation water, land planning should be done at an early stage in the settlement and development of new areas. A failure to do this early planning may result in the allocation of resources to types of farming systems that preclude the choice of better long-run alternatives. In addition to providing a major source of protein for improved diets, livestock production offers a possibility for easing the foreign exchange position of Pakistan. One obvious opportunity for sheep production is the strong export market for wool. With an average wool clip of approximately four pounds per head per year (with possibilities for increasing this average) and an export price of Rs. 2.5 per pound, wool could become an increasingly important earner of foreign exchange. 233



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Chapter 7 As the water level is lowered, losses from evaporation and transpiration decline. The amount of water represented in the decline must appear in the pump discharge if the lowering is to continue. Moreover, a dynamic and not a static situation exists in the early phases of the dewatering process. With water tables close to the surface and with a high degree of saturation in the aquifer, reactions are quick and of large magnitude. Precipitation may cause a rapid temporary rise in the water table. Also the question of whether the water will simply be recirculated by the pump must be answered. In the analogue computer simulation of ground water flow in the ten-mile strip, the ten wells were pumped at a rate of 8.6 million gallons per day, which corresponds to 1.5 cubic feet per year per square foot; this rate is 4 about the same as that contemplated in the Panel plan. The aquifer was assumed to have a transmissibility of 200,000 gpd per foot and a storage coefficient of 0.2. No lateral flow occurred at the sides of the strip. The strip may be conceived as an element of a large rectangular tubewell grid in a homogeneous aquifer between two parallel canals 10 miles apart. Six cases were investigated as follows: Case Pumping time, Total recharge Canal recharge Areal recharge years rate, 106 gpd 106 gpd 106 gpd O 2 0 0 0 N 2 2 1 1 M 2 5.90 2.84 3.06 0' 20 0 0 0 N' 20 2 1 1 MO 20 5.90 2.84 3.06 Graphs showing the history of watertable drawdowns at 8 points near the center of the strip for cases 0' and M' are given in Figures 7.9 and 7.10. In Figure 7.11 the profiles of the watertable along the half-strip for the six cases are drawn. All profiles are relatively flat; even cases M and M' with heavy recharge from the canals have slopes of less than 12 percent. The ratio of the recharge rate to the pumping rate of 1.03/1.50 = 0.69 is larger than that envisaged in our plan of 0.72/1.55 = 0.46. Therefore it may be concluded that the tubewell dewatering process on the scale and intensity delineated in our plan will be effective even in regions adjacent to large canals. Analysis of a Model of a Five Hundred-Well Project in Chaj Doab A second analogue computer investigation was made of a hypothetical 500square mile tubewell project in the east central part of Chaj Doab on the north Indus Plain. The project area extended along the northern bank of the 293



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Chapter 2 Di Dc (1 + P )where P =percentage increase from Table 2.2. 100 The canal waters of West Pakistan are of relatively high quality. The average salt concentration of the Indus Basin Rivers is about 250 ppm. Thus, from 2 to 9 percent additional water, over and above consumptive use, depending upon the salt tolerance of the crop, is presently required for salinity control. With this low salt concentration, it should be possible to reduce the quantity of irrigation water required per acre by conducting leaching primarily during the winter months, when evapotranspiration is at a minimum, With saline ground waters, whether used directly for irrigation or mixed with surface waters, greater total amounts of water will be required. For example, if the irrigation water has 1,000 ppm of salt, the required amount is from 11 to 67 percent greater than consumptive use. The water that is not evapotranspired (used consumptively) will percolate back into the soil, and can,'ultimately be re-used. With a concentration of 2,000 ppm or more in the applied water, it may be economical, in order to keep down pumping costs, to plant only those crops that can tolerate a relatively high concentration in the root zone. Thus, pulses should probably not be grown in the lower central parts of Rechna and Chaj Doabs when, and if, pumped ground water from these areas is used to supplement canal water. The degree of salinity control is the same in all cases if the required increase in irrigation water 'is used and is leached through the soil. It is evident that the use of salt tolerant crops is an effective way of keeping the quantity of irrigation water required to a minimum. In Former Sind, the cultivated fields are commonly dispersed in more or less isolated patches. Irrigation water is often carelessly used, and there is no systematic drainage system. As a result, a considerable portion of the irrigation water runs off into fallow or uncultivated land, where it seeps down to the water table. This percolation, rather than canal leakage, appears to be the most important cause for the rising water table in Former Sind. Water management here could be improved by consolidation of the cultivated fields into large contiguous grids, and by careful control of irrigation supplies so that just enough water is applied to meet the evapotranspiration needs of the crops plus the leaching requirement for maintenance of low soil 99



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Chapter 3 permanent experiment station is completed and the transfer of experimental work to it begun. Commercial production of improved seeds begins. Fourth Year Completion of the tubewell field, all phases of the program in full operation. Beginning in this year, some of the staff is ready for transfer to a new project area and a flow of personnel through the project begins. Financing and Staffing There are two aspects to financing the agricultural development areas. The capital expenditures should be made an integral part of the present and subsequent Five. Year Plans, and should be financed as necessary through developmental loans like those that support other components of the Five Year Plans. The operating expenses of the development organization and the provision of agricultural credit and insurance stand on a somewhat different footing. Expenses will be heavy throughout the plan niggardliness of budget was one of the main impediments to previous efforts -but increases in farm income will lag during the first few years. It is proposed that the costs of operation during these early years be regarded as capital expenses, as indeed they are, although they yield only an intangible asset, a going organization. These costs, too, can appropriately be financed out of developmental loans and grants. As results begin to accrue, however, the project region should become self-supporting (apart from subsidies on fertilizer, etc., financed by the central government) and should begin to repay funds advanced to it. Its major sources of funds will be (1) sales of tubewell water, and (2) a share of the land revenues, which should be increased to recapture a portion of the productivity increases achieved by the development program, and (3) a share of the interest on agricultural loans and the premiums on crop insurance financed or guaranteed by the development administration. Estimated average capital and operating cost per net cultivated acre in the Former Punjab and Former Bahawalpur are shown in Table 3.4. Staffing the development administrations will be a difficult problem. Domestic personnel will clearly not be available in adequate numbers during the early years of the program, but every effort should be made to build up the domestically recruited staffs as quickly as possible. Dur ing the early years, technical assistance from the advanced countries will be essential. Such agencies as the Agency for International Development, the Peace Corps, and a consortium of universities (13) can make (13)See for example, "Pakistan -Education, Research, and Argricultural Extension for the Development of the Indus Basin"; Associated Rocky Mountain Universities; May 1962. 158



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Chapter 7 (3) The rate of recharge, 4.7/7 = 0.67 ft/yr. (4) The net rate of mining, (1.08 -0.67)/0.2 5 = 1.67 ft/yr, or 50 feet in 30 years. (5) The amount of excessively saline mined water to be exported, 2.9 -1.9 = 1.0 maf/yr. This will be channeled to salt lagoons and thus not affect the salinity of irrigation water in the Sind. (j) Saline tubewell effluent returned to rivers (See Figures 7.4 and 7.5). (1) From the non-saline area, 3.4 maf/yr. (2) From the saline area, 0.5 maf/yr. (3) Total return flow to rivers, 3.9 maf/yr. It is estimated that this flow will have an average salinity of 4000 ppm. (4) Average annual river flow at the confluence near the northern boundary of the Former Sind, 136 -6.6 -45 -11.5/2 = 78.7 maf/yr. This is estimated to have a salt concentration of 260 ppm. (5) The salt concentration of river flow entering the Former Sind as based on average flow is [78.7(260) + 3.9 (4000)1/(78.7 + 3.9) =436 ppm. It will be desirable to pump most of the excessively saline ground water into the river during periods of high runoff to ensure that the salinity of irrigation water does not considerably exceed 436 ppm during other periods. In regions where surface drainage is not practicable or at sites where tubewell water has excessive salinity, effluents may be channeled to salt lagoons in the central parts of the doabs or to the Thar Desert as it is planned to do with excess mined water from the saline areas. 8. Effective rainfall: average annual for the 24 ma of culturable land is 5.2 inches or 0.4 ft. 9. Summary Statement: Irrigation water supply for the Former Punjab and Former Bahawalpur during the first level of development. 282



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Chapter 1 In Former Bahawalpur, almost all the cultivated land is under canal irrigation; the percentages of fallow land and of double cropping are almost the same as in the canal-irrigated districts of the Former Punjab. In Former Sind, on the other hand, nearly 41 percent of the supposedly cultivated land is reported a 's fallow and the percentage of double cropped land is small. Part of the land designated as fallow is probably only -rarely cultivated and some may have been abandoned. It is likely that salt damage and waterlogging, together with shortage of irrigation water, have reduced the area which the farmers are able to cultivate economically. Changes in gross sown area with time In recent years, the total gross area in the Indus Plain and the adjoining Potwar Uplands has increased fairly regularly at a rate approximating 1.3 percent, or about 0.38 million acres per annum (see Table 1.13). The nine Districts with major canal irrigation in the Former Punjab increased at an average rate of 1.5 percent over the period 1949-59, or 0.19 million acres a year. In the regions under command of long -established canal systems, such as the Upper Chenab and the Central Bani Doab canals, the gross sown area rose by 1.7 million acres from 9.1 million in 1949 to 10.8 million in 1959. In two Districts with newly -developing canal irrigation, Mianwali and Muzaffargarh, the gross sown acreage increased by 0.5 million, from just over 1.7 million in 1949 to more than 2.2 million in 1959. The area irrigated by the Thal canal increased from 0.1 million acres in 1949 to more than 0.6 million acres in 1959. In the older canal systems the increase in gross area almost certainly means that the volume of irrigation water per acre correspondingly decreased. This is a continuation of a long -established trend. Between 1905 and 1950, according to Majid, (lS)the amount of irrigation water per aere in the Kharif season declined at a rate of about 1.1 percent per year. In the Rabi season, the amount of water per acre declined at about 0.55 percent per year. (15)" Note on the Value of Delta for the Various Punjab Canals in the Rabi on 1950-51;" Irrigation Branch, Public Works Department; March 1954. 45



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Appendix A. 8 Category and Type of Pri.Pr oj ect No. Study No.41 ority* Description I. Health and Nutrition (continued) Project 4 SS 2 Efficiency of food preparation and storage, and sources of waste in households and by food handlers II. Agriculture A 1 Selection and development of plant varieties Project 5 E a. Selection of high yield varieties now existing in West Pakistan b. Breeding of higher yielding, disease-resistant varieties. c. Testing varieties from outside West Pakistan for possible introduction. d. Breeding of short-gr owingseason varieties Project 6 E 1 Irrigation water requirements for different crops and soils a. Yields as a function of amount of water applied for different salt and sodium contents of irrigation water (1) Yield of total plant material: e.g. fodder and sugar cane (2) Yield of seeds: e.g. wheat, maize, pulses, oil seeds, etc. b. Effects of timing and mode of application of irrigation water See footnotes at end of table. 444



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Chapter 2 From the published report on this project(3), it is not clear how much of the increase in yield per acre resulted from leaching of the salt in the soils and how much was due to the increase in the quantity of irrigation water per acre, or to changes in the cropping pattern. Photographs and data given in the report show that in the neighborhood of at least some wells, the area of saline land was halved. In one case, the salinity of the reclaimed acreage decreased from more than 2 percent to less than 0.2 percent in the top 3 feet, and, in another, the salt content in the upper layer dropped from about 1 percent to an overage of 0.5 percent. Owing in part to the small size of the project area, and in part to abnormally heavy rains, the tubewell pumping has not, as yet, lowered the water table very significantly. The Principle of Interaction The interaction of production factors is a fundamental principle for increasing agricultural production. High yields are attained when production factors are applied in the proper amounts and combinations. If a factor is minimal, then additions of that factor result in increased yields. Characteristically, the increase in yield per increment of factor added is not linear, but, beyond an optimum point, decreases progressively as the factor ceases to be limiting. When two or more factors are minimal, the addition of any one factor singly will have a relatively small effect on yield, whereas adding all minimal factors in combination will have a very considerable effect. Two or more such factors are said to have a large positive interaction, for the yield response to the combination of factors is larger than the sum of the responses to each separately. This principle of interaction is a commonplace of agricultural science, but it could have such important implications for the development of agriculture in West Pakistan that it is desirable to give a few quantitative examples. These ar e shown in Table s 2. 8 to 2. 10. Table 2.8 summarizes experiments with desalination and fertilizer on bermuda grass, an important pasture crop in the arid southwestern United States. (3) "An Interim Report of the Effectiveness of Tubewell Reclamation in the Former Punjab Area of West Pakistan"; Tipton and Kalmbach, Inc.; West Pakistan Water and Power Development Authority; Lahore, West Pakistan; May 19 61. 114



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Az z Fl 0sq MF ( 2 o 25! iA onl srem 105 5pd/ /i2 E effective rcMrge 200 gpm/t 05 ft/yr ithin emedag ft 60op,/-e O.4 .W hin .a. e cein. 2. .nt re... D Figure 713 Profiles of Water Table along Section A -A' of Doab Model, Pakistan after Pumping 500 Wells 20 Years; Four computer runs with various pumping and recharge rates.



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Chapter 2 greater than 0.5 to 1.0 percent. Most of this land is in Former Sind. In several million additional acres throughout the irrigated area of the Indus Plain, the upper soil layers contain 0.2 to,0.5 percent salt. It should be possible completely to restore the productivity of those portions of the latter area which have not been damaged by sodium, through application of 2 to 3 feet of leaching water. However, either vertical drainage with tubewells or horizontal drainage by means of ditches must first be established. Rice crops can often grow during the leaching process. About 6 feet of leaching water will be needed in the regions of high soil salt content which have not suffered sodium damage. With only 1 or 2 additional feet of water per acre available from tubewells, such reclamation over extensive areas must inevitably take several years before profitable crop production can be reestablished. Unfortunately, a large fraction, perhaps 50 percent of the salt-damaged soils in the Former Punjab may also have a high proportion of exchangeable sodium, and hence a seriously impaired permeability. Analyses of nearly 2000 samples from Central Rechna Doab, in the area of Salinity Control and Reclamation Project No. One, show 51 percent with less than 3 milliequivalents of exchangeable sodium per 100 grams of soil; 24 percent containing 3 to 6 milliequivalents per 100 grams, and 25 percent with more than 6 milliequivalents per 100 grams. Presumably this twentyfive percent lies largely in the area of high saline soils. In most soils, an exchangeable sodium content of 3 to 6 milliequivalents per 100 grams would require nearly continuous leaching for 4 to 6 years. Whenthe exchangeable sodium is greater than 6 milliequivalents per 100 grams, reclamation of typical soils usually can be accomplished only by special measures, such as leaching with highly saline waters having a relatively high ratio of calcium and magnesium to sodium, and relatively low carbonate content. The Punjab soils are not typical, because they usually contain small amounts of swelling clays, such as montmorillonite, but even so we anticipate that leaching will be very difficult in perhaps as much as half of the salt-damaged area. The situation may be worse in Former Sind if, as may be expected, the sodium content of river and ground waters increases downstream. On the other hand, in the area under command of the Ghulam Mohammad Barrage Canals, south of Hyderabad, the ground water may fairly closely resemble sea water in composition, that is, it may have a low carbonate and a high 112



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Chapter 4 A Central Administrative Staff for supply, housing, personnel, accounting and similar operations; A Frontline Service for maintenance and operation of tubewells; A Water Distribution and Assessments Service; A Consolidated Extension and Reclamation Field Service, including central supervision for design and monitoring of the several experimental plans for working with the farmers, farm. credit and marketing assistance, in-service training, and operation of experimental and test facilities. Problems of Trained Personnel At the heart of the arrangements for launching the project operations is the problem of shortage of technical, operational and managerial skills. There are two necessities-effective mobilization and utilization of all available resources and immediate action to face up to the deficiencies. Four initial steps would appear in order: (1) an inventory of total project personnel as to competencies; (2) a rationalization of the currently available personnel resources; (3) firm plans to start train