Title Page
 The concept of security
 Continuing threats to security...
 Steps towards enhancing world...

Group Title: International working paper series - Food and Resources Economics Department - IW 91-1
Title: Security, population and development
Full Citation
Permanent Link: http://ufdc.ufl.edu/UF00053856/00001
 Material Information
Title: Security, population and development
Series Title: International working paper series
Physical Description: 14 p. : ; 28 cm.
Language: English
Creator: Lele, Uma J
Publisher: Food and Resource Economics Dept., Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, University of Florida
Place of Publication: Gainesville
Publication Date: 1991
Subject: Security, International   ( lcsh )
Economic development   ( lcsh )
Economic conditions -- Developing countries   ( lcsh )
Genre: government publication (state, provincial, terriorial, dependent)   ( marcgt )
non-fiction   ( marcgt )
Bibliography: Includes bibliographical references (p. 13-14).
Statement of Responsibility: by Uma Lele.
General Note: "October 1991."
Funding: Electronic resources created as part of a prototype UF Institutional Repository and Faculty Papers project by the University of Florida.
 Record Information
Bibliographic ID: UF00053856
Volume ID: VID00001
Source Institution: University of Florida
Holding Location: University of Florida
Rights Management: All rights reserved, Board of Trustees of the University of Florida
Resource Identifier: aleph - 001667723
oclc - 24678812
notis - AHX9534

Table of Contents
    Title Page
        Page i
        Page 1
        Page 2
        Page 3
        Page 4
    The concept of security
        Page 5
        Page 6
    Continuing threats to security in all its forms
        Page 7
        Page 8
        Page 9
        Page 10
        Page 11
    Steps towards enhancing world security
        Page 12
        Page 13
        Page 14
Full Text


The publications in this collection do
not reflect current scientific knowledge
or recommendations. These texts
represent the historic publishing
record of the Institute for Food and
Agricultural Sciences and should be
used only to trace the historic work of
the Institute and its staff. Current IFAS
research may be found on the
Electronic Data Information Source

site maintained by the Florida
Cooperative Extension Service.

Copyright 2005, Board of Trustees, University
of Florida




Uma Lele

IW91-1 October 1991


Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences
University of Florida
Gainesville, Florida 32611


Uma Lele2

Dramatic developments in the Soviet Union and the Communist block countries and the precipitous end

of the cold war provide a historic opportunity to address the twin problems of economic development and

population growth. Arms production, size of the military forces, and employment of public resources are already

on the decline in industrial and Eastern block countries. In constant 1991-92 dollars, U.S. defense spending

declined from $360 billion in 1985 to $320 billion in 1990 and is expected to drop further to $240 billion by

1996.3 Cuts in the Eastern block countries are still larger. Economic crisis has similarly reduced arms

expenditures in Latin America and Africa (Hewitt). Conclusion of the START treaty between the U.S. and the

Soviet Union and Yeltsin's recent statements about a nuclear-free world reflect the Soviet desire to focus on

economic development.

End of the superpower conflict is not the only good news. Striking progress in other directions has

occurred in the last four decades. Democratic movements have sprung up throughout the developing world.

Economic crisis in Latin America and Africa and the collapse of communism have resulted in a major

reassessment of the traditional authoritarian role of the nation state. People's power has increased vis-a-vis their


The extraordinary progress of countries in East Asia has shown that rapid economic progress is possible

in the third world. Moreover, despite low per capital incomes, health and educational standards have improved

in many developing countries, e.g. in China and Sri Lanka, often matching the levels of life expectancy and other

social indicators attained in the developed world.

Technological progress has been deployed for the benefit of human kind in various ways. For instance,

the Green Revolution technology has wiped out the notorious famine related deaths in the Indian subcontinent.

Spread of immunization has caused a sharp drop in infant and child mortality. Satellites and fiber optic

i Theme Paper prepared for the 41st Pugwash Conference Beijing, China, September, 1991.

2 Director of International Studies and Programs, and Graduate Research Professor, Food & Resource
Economics Department, University of Florida, USA.

3 U.S. Department of Defense as quoted in The Economist August 24-30, p.24


technology have made communications instantaneous even though governments have resisted the free flow of

information to their populations.

Notwithstanding these many

positive developments, nearly 5% of the

World's GNP or nearly $1 trillion have

been spent annually on military

expenditures in the last two decades.

(See Table 1) A massive arms build-up

means a constant threat of nuclear and

chemical warfare and environmental

damage. Industrial countries incur over

half the world's arms expenditure. But

Eastern block and developing countries

have spent larger shares of their GNPs

on arms. Developing country share of

military expenditures in world military

Table 1 Average Military Spending around the World: Adjusted
SIPRI data, 1972-88.

In percent of
Word militay Centrl government
ODP peandilure expendlturr
1972-819972-18 1972-88
iutrnal countne 3 5s2.7 143
Estern Europ 9.2 2A 207
Develapm countria 59 22.0 0.0
Amn devlopian 63 81 7.2
Middk Ea 11.6 a8 23.1
Nonth Afnc 9.6 1. 17.1
Sub-Sahatn Ar. 3.7 1.5 128
Lain Amenca & Carriean 2.3 23 8.6
Toul 49 100.0 16.
Developin country roupmp:
Net creditor 9A SA 25.0
Heavily indted 22 3.5 10.9
SmUa low-icome 3.6 0.6 12.2
Souce: Hewrtt, Danel P. 'Mutary Ependiturem i the Developm World.' Financ
Dewtloomnt, Sep. 1991. p. 23

expenditure increased from 5% in the

1960s to 22% in the 1980s. Countries in Asia and the Middle East are larger spenders still, with nearly a quarter

of their government expenditures going into the arms build-up.

With the pressing balance of payments and social problems developing countries face, further

reallocation of expenditure from military to development activities is urgently needed. More than a billion people

in the world still live on less than $1 a day, a standard of living worse than that encountered in Western Europe

and the United States two hundred years ago. They suffer from oppressive poverty: lack of adequate food,

housing, water or access to primary education and health care. Levels of poverty have been on the rise in Africa

and Latin America. Both these continents have experienced severe decline in the growth rates of per capital GNP

in each successive decade since the 1960s. (See Table 2)

Economic reforms adopted in countries as diverse as Mexico and Ghana offer a glimmer of optimism.

Yet, informed forecasts by the World Bank do not offer much hope for significant improvement in the economic

prospects of developing countries in the 1990s. (See Table 3) They project continued slow growth in OECD

countries, depressed international commodity prices, continued budget deficits in the U.S., high real interest

rates, slow resolution of the debt crisis, negative real transfers of capital to developing countries, and continued

protectionism in industrial countries.

Table 2 Growth of Real GDP Per Capita, 1965-2000
(average annual percentage change)

Population 19 Projmtion for
Group millionr) 1965-73 1973-0 1901 1990

Indutrnl Countres 773 3.7 23 2.3 1.-2.5

Dewlopmg Countries 4053 39 25 1A 2.22.9

SuSSahaan Afra 480 2.1 0A -12 03-05

Eat A 1552 53 49 6.2 42-53

South Asu 1131 1.2 1.7 3.0 2.1-2.6

Europe, Middle East, and Nonh Aria 433 5. 19 0A 1A-1.

Latm Amencs and Ctbean 421 3. 25 -04 13-2.0

Devwiopmg countnes weghlted by 4053 3.0 2. 29 2.7-32

Source: World Bank World Development Report 1991: The Chllenge of Development. Oxford: Oxford Uni. Pres.
Table 1, p.3

Table 3 The International Economic Climate in the 1990s: a Comparison of Recent and Projected
Indicators (average annual percentage change).

Trend Recent cerina ce


down .ide

Protection for the 199O

IMF Projea
btue-le UNK

Indicator 1965- 198- 19 9 1990 1990-00 19902000 1991-96 1991-5 1991.95 1991-95

Htgb-noome OECD members

Real GDP 3.1 3.1 2.6 29 2.2 3.1 2 3.2 3.1

Inflation 6.6 3 3.7 3. 3 43 3A 3A 4.4 33

Interest rue (percent)

Nornmml .6 102 9A 7A 9. 7.7 &6 79

Rel 3.1 .8 43 3A 5.1 39 4.0 43 49

World Trade 4.1 4.1 5.0 58 43 5.6 43

Real pne of oil 93 -10.1 22.2 A.6 09 .3.0 0.9 08 .2.0

Source: World Bnk. World Development Rport 1991: The Challenge of Development. Oxford: Oxford Unr. Press Table 1.4, p.7.


Growth has been more robust in South Asia and China relative to Latin America or Africa, but together

South Asia and China include well over half a billion poor. By the year 2000, the number of poor (365 million)

in South Asia is expected to drop, but will still comprise the largest single block of poor in world. The number

of poor in Africa while smaller (165 million in 1990) is expected to increase (to 265 million) due to continued

slow income growth and rapid population growth (World Development Report, 1990).

Success in improving living standards in the developing world will determine the size and quality of the

world's labor force in the 21st century and will depend on declines in female fertility, infant mortality, increased

access to primary education, health, and village water supply for the poor. The importance of investment in

human capital, and especially in women, as a determinant of the size and quality of the population is by now well

recognized. Developing countries also need to resume investment in critically important physical infrastructure.

Such investments are also urgently needed in Eastern block countries, but there are several reasons why the

peace dividend may not materialize on the scale necessary. First, conversion of military capacity for civilian

purposes may be costlier and slower than present enthusiasm warrants. Factories, equipment and people may

simply be less fungible in the short and medium run than we would like, as the recent evidence from the Soviet

Union indicates. Second, political reality and public opinion in the U.S. still strongly supports continued high

military expenditures to preempt the possible nuclear threat from an irrational third world state, and to control

the nuclear arsenal which may escape detection in the best of circumstances. According to this view, the end

of the cold war and the US military victory in Iraq have unequivocally proven the need for a strong nuclear

deterrent, the irrelevance of the conclusion of the START treaty and the need to push on with the Strategic

Defense Initiative (SDI). Despite the USSR owning thousands more nuclear warheads than it did ten years ago,

the public in the industrial countries feels more secure than ever before because it views military security as

dependent on intentions to use nuclear capability rather than on numbers of warheads. Third, industrial

countries may well perceive developing countries as the only significant market for their underemployed

armament industry. Fourth, regional and ethnic conflict ranging from Yugoslavia, the Middle East, South Asia

to Central America may well offer a large market for the world's armament industry. The U.S. Secretary of

Defense predicts, for instance, that within less than a decade fifteen more countries will acquire ballistic missiles,

half with nuclear warheads. The U.S. considers such nuclear proliferation to be the real danger and the

justification for its own continued build-up. Certainly without rapid and more regionally balanced economic

growth, ethnic and religious strife will continue to fuel political instability. That, in turn, will hinder rapid and

broad-based economic growth, leading to regional conflicts. This vicious cycle needs breaking.

To explore the prospects for increased security, economic development and alleviation of the population

problem, the mischievous ambiguity of the word security first needs a more precise definition. Second, the

objectives and policies to achieve security and development, including the areas of consensus and debate around

the goals and means need clarification. Finally, the steps necessary for the peace dividend to materialize for the

purposes of economic well-being need to be identified. This paper undertakes such a difficult task.

The ConceDt of Security

Robert MacNamara once observed that the concept of security had become "dangerously oversimplified."

There was a universal tendency to think of it exclusively as a military problem focused on weapons systems and

hardware (Ghosh). Much progress has been made since MacNamara's speech to articulate security in broader

terms. Economists and social scientists too have spent greater time and effort articulating the broader

constituents and determinants of human welfare. The broader concept encompasses three distinct forms of


Economic: Fulfillment of basic human needs as reflected in reduced infant mortality, improved food energy
intake, access to education, clean water, and health.

Political: Freedom of expression including of the press, civil and religious liberties including particularly
the protection of the rights of minorities.

Physical: Assurance of environmental quality, ranging from nuclear and chemical disarmament, protection
of biodiversity to freedom from crime and violence.

Individuals and nations value these different forms of security differently, and the very process of

economic development changes the importance attached to them. For example, developing countries eager to

improve their economic living standards give less importance to the protection of the environment than do

industrialized nations. But this situation too has changed radically since the publication of the influential

Bruntland report (World Commission on Environment and Development). Furthermore, the direction of

causality between different forms of security is not always clear. Contemporary thinking in industrial countries

spurns rapid economic growth if it is seen to come at the cost of environmental security. However, much of lcal

environmental degradation (to distinguish it from the adverse global environmental effects of industrialization

or militarization) is often the direct result of poverty and the associated demands on natural resources. Rapid


population growth results in reduced fallow, deforestation and soil degradation by bringing marginal lands under

cultivation. Low input-low output production systems followed by traditional societies are now being revived by

the environmentally conscious. The jury is still out on their physical or economic sustainability under conditions

of rapid population growth and poverty.

The contrasting examples of the EC and the Eastern block countries show that sacrifice of economic

growth may not always be associated with a healthy environment, especially where absence of political freedom

limits organization and activity on the part of the potential victims of environmental damage, as highlighted by

Chernobyl. It can only be asserted that democracy offers the best hope of reducing adverse environmental

consequences of rapid economic growth and high living standards, and that economic growth enables countries

to afford the cost of the cleanup and protection which failure in economic development cannot. Given the global

effects of many forms of environmental damage, industrial countries will have to bear the burden of damage

control, unless economic growth accelerates in the rest of the world.

Problems of measurement also abound in attempts to reflect overall well-being. For example, how to

measure and value the environmental degradation and other associated depletion of natural resources occurring

in the course of rapid economic growth?

Poor knowledge of the interaction between different forms of security extends to the relationship of

political freedom to the process of economic development. China's radical political revolution was more

successful than India's democratic means in abolishing chronic poverty, through a single massive redistribution

of assets. But, India's freer press has been more successful in abolishing frequent famine-related deaths (Dr6ze

and Sen). The recent dramatic collapse of socialistic states has understandably enshrined the importance of

democratic values. But broad-based distribution of assets so crucial for the ability of any nation's population to

exercise continued political, economic, or religious freedom is being overlooked. The U.S. occupation of Japan

played a crucial role in accelerating the process of land reform there and Japan's occupation of Taiwan achieved

the same in the latter.

Without an equitable asset distribution, very rapid economic growth is needed over a sustained period

to expand employment, and ensure economic security of the poor. But it is still not dear how effective are

"politically responsive" governments in undertaking the reforms necessary on a sustained basis to achieve rapid

growth, if the reforms affect powerful vested interests. Experience of the structural adjustment decade is far too

short and far too undocumented to offer guidance on this important issue. Some have argued that the successful

East Asian countries have all had authoritarian governments and a relatively equal distribution of assets. Recent

evidence, however, suggests that political and civil rights may not come in the way of economic growth (Grier

and Tullock) and still other evidence indicated a strong positive relationship between rights and per capital real

income level and its growth, as well as improvements in social indicators (Dasgupta and Weal 1990). While there

are continued problems of valuation, causality and interactions among different forms of security, the importance

of attaining them all is widely shared. Our focus should then be on how and why to increase the state of security

for those currently insecure.

Continuing Threats to Security in All its Forms

It hardly needs stressing that increasing integration of the world makes ensuring the security of a few

difficult while a vast majority remain insecure. The globalization of the AIDs epidemic, the Chernobyl incident,

the growth of drug trade, the Iraq war, and the BCCI debacle illustrate the global health, environmental, and

financial consequences of local and regional mismanagement.

With growing population pressure and sharply widened income disparities between industrialized and

developing nations, migration of populations to the industrial world is already significant. Although unlike in

the 19th century it is not a significant option for the vast majority of populations living in the developing world,

prospects of mass international migration create a fear of economic insecurity in the first world and with

justification. Recent censuses in the industrial countries already show their increased ethnic, linguistic and

religious diversity caused by rapid migration. Moreover, continued political instability and economic insecurity

in Eastern Europe, the Soviet Union, and the third world threatens to increase international migration.

Typically, it is the skilled and the well-off that tend to migrate, regardless of whether migration is

internal to the developing countries, or external to industrial countries. Migration has alleviated emerging labor

shortages in the first world, and remittances of emigrants have helped labor-exporting countries to offset some

of the severe adverse effects of skill loss and technological stagnation (illustrated in Table 4). Remittances have

helped alleviate the balance of payments difficulties of developing countries. But it is only the improved

economic and political prospects which will abate international migration of the skilled and help developing

countries to catch up with the industrial world.

Population pressure and economic insecurity are, however, not the only areas in which disarmament and

development intersect. According to Amnesty International, tens of thousands of people are killed every year

Table 4 The Growth of GDP, Inputs, and Total Factor Productivity (TFP) (percent).

Repon. GDP Capitl Labor TFP
group or
economy 1960-73 1973-87 196047 1960.73 1973-87 1987 1960-73 1973-87 1960-87 196073 1973-87 1960-

Dewopmg economjs
Afrcs 4.0 2.6 33 63 63 63 2.1 23 2.2 0.7 .07 0.0
Emt Ari 75 6.5 68 9. 10.7 102 2. 26 26 2.6 1.3 19
Europe, Md 5.8 4.2 50 7.7 7.5 7.6 14 19 1.7 22 0.6 14
Eat, North
Laum 5.1 23 3.6 74 5.6 63 25 2 2.6 13 *1.1 0.0
South ANt 3.8 5.0 4A &O 7.2 7.7 18 23 2.1 0. 1.2 0.6
Suxly-cgbt 5.1 3.5 42 7A. 7.1 72 2.2 2. 23 13 .0.2 OA
Indurtrul Economies
France 5.5 2.1 39 5.7 3.8 4.8 0A .1.0 0.2 23 0.9 1.7
Germtny 43 1.8 3.1 53 3.0 4.2 -03 0.9 -0.6 1.9 0.9 14
United 33 13 2.4 3.6 2.6 3.1 0.1 0.5 0.2 1.7 0.6 12
United States 3,7 2.2 3.0 38 2 3.4 1.8 19 1.8 1.0 -0. 05
Source: World Bank World Development Report 1991: The Challenge of Development. Oxford: O:xord Un.v. Pres. Table 2.2 pA3.

throughout the world, including a large number by their own governments (Amnesty International). The killed

are the victims of human rights violations. Viewed as opponents of the governments of the day, they are targeted

for their religious or political beliefs, ethnic origin and linguistic differences. Military expenditures of many

developing countries are directed internally rather than towards any realistic external enemy (MacNamara,

Finance & Development p.25). An estimated 10 million people are classified as refugees annually. Superpower

interests and hegemonic aspirations of regional powers have reinforced the flow of refugees stretching from

Angola to Honduras and Afghanistan to Sri Lanka.

Internal social and political instability has resulted in increased incidence of violent crime in developing

countries as the supply of war and drug related arms has become rampant through civic society in countries as

different as Pakistan, Kenya, Cote d'lvoire and of course in countries of Central America. It is hoped that the

type of cooperation the U.S. and the Soviet Union are developing in bringing about a Middle East peace

conference will be extended to regional conflicts in other parts of the world. Furthermore, it is hoped that they

will obtain the legitimacy and co-operation of the regional powers and involve the United Nations and other

industrial countries to achieve a political and moral consensus as occurred temporarily in the case of Iraq. The

Iraq war, however, involved important economic interests of a large part of the world dependent on oil. Many


other regional conflicts do not involve such valuable minerals. They simply entail the historical grievances of

warring parties without much geoeconomic or geopolitical significance. Can international or regional consensus

be brought to bear on such conflicts? The arms expenditures of developing countries must be viewed in such

a broader context of regional conflicts in the face of pressing needs for investment and social expenditures, and

of the macroeconomic problems.

To solve these interacting problems, a strong consensus is needed on their diagnosis and solutions with

willingness to address the problem at several levels. This audience is more familiar than I with the problems

related to nuclear disarmament and nonproliferation created by the lack of a consensus. Large differences of

view also exist in the case of other important global issues, differences which are currently being masked by the

dramatic developments in the Soviet Union.

Genesis and resolution of the debt crisis amounting to $1.3 trillion in 1990 is a case in point (Sachs).

Industrial creditor nations blame the policy mistakes of debtor countries, such as misallocation of capital, the

growth of inefficient public enterprises and price distortions that discriminate against exports. Creditors argue

that debtor governments must honor their debts so as not to threaten the international financial system and to

continue to maintain credit worthiness. It hardly needs stressing that collapse of the Soviet empire has lent

added credibility and strength to the arguments of the industrial countries.

Debtors, on the other hand, have argued that the crisis in the 1980s arose due to the rise in the

international price of oil, increase in interest rates, the fall in the commodity prices and the collapse of the world

trading system. Debtors are skeptical about the extent to which free market remedies promoted as part of

adjustment will solve their problem of resuming growth. They call for additional investment and the opening

of markets for their primary products in industrial countries. They also argue that some amount of debt

forgiveness is essential in order to permit increased investment in the debtor countries. Finally, they express the

fear that increased promotion of exports by all developing countries simultaneously would reinforce the already

entrenched protectionist tendencies in the creditor countries, reducing terms of trade for their products further.

Some steps have of course been taken to redress the debt problem (including a shift from debt rescheduling to

the reduction of debt and debt service, debt buybacks, reduced interest rates and rescheduling of the official

debt). But according to the World Bank the debt problem will continue to dampen prospects for most of the

46 severely indebted countries (World Development Report 1991). Progress on trade and aid has also been slow

and not all effects of pumping rapid structural adjustment loans may be positive.

The truth of the evidence on the genesis of the debt crisis and steps taken to alleviate it of course lies

somewhere in the middle. In recently completed studies of development strategy and aid effectiveness spanning

three continents over the post-World War II period, my colleagues and I have documented the onus of local and

global responsibility for the economic crisis in the third world. The studies show that export pessimism did not

simply afflict developing countries. It importantly determined the policy advice and allocation of development

assistance given by all major bilateral and multilateral financial institutions in the 1960s and 70s. Through the

prestige that their advice and assistance lent to the import substituting strategies, aid agencies underwrote the

twin strategies of import substitution and poverty alleviation pursued by developing countries throughout the 60s

and 70s (Lele, Lele and Nabi). Military/strategic interests of the two superpowers and popular public opinion

in the industrial countries played an important role in the level and nature of official development assistance and

commercial credit different developing countries received. Soviet actions in Cuba, Vietnam, the Middle East and

Afghanistan resulted in greater U.S. largesse to developing countries since the mid 1960s than the original

intentions of promotion of democratic values and poverty alleviation. Those original intentions had resulted in

large amounts of effective long-term U.S. development assistance to India prior to 1965 as a way of containing

Chinese communism. That development assistance made the Indian Green Revolution possible, eliminating

famine-related hunger from the Indian subcontinent. Since the Vietnam war, however, strategic considerations

shifted. U.S. assistance was focused on the areas of military conflicts with the Soviet Union, e.g. Egypt, Israel,

Pakistan and the Philippines. The "security" content of assistance also increased at the cost of developmental

needs. Rapidly changing strategic interests of the two superpowers caused instability and unpredictability of

external capital. Unpredictability of aid flows made planning its uses for the much needed long-term investment

in human and physical capital difficult for recipients. Whereas capacity to repay debt did not increase, debt

repayment obligations ballooned.

Commercial banks behaved differently but not always more effectively than official development

assistance agencies from the viewpoint of economic development. Lending pressures undermined the interests

of both the stockholders and the borrowing countries.

On the part of the developing countries, their inadequate know-how in economic development policy

together with learning the wrong lessons from economic history of the industrialized world led them to:

1. rely excessively on external policy advice and external finance for internal economic development;

2. overlook the importance of fluctuating primary commodity prices for their likely continued ability to
service large external debt;

3. anticipate the likely gross misallocation of external capital in situations of little absorptive capacity, and

4. allow vested interests to grow both of the rent-seeking elite and the urban laboring classes.

These same vested interests have tended to scuttle the much needed policy reform in most developing

countries. International agencies, e.g. Brettonwoods Institutions, established originally to solve precisely these

types of problems have been reactive rather than proactive in addressing many crucial international economic


No less an individual than MacNamara has recently observed that:

"...general balance of payments or budgetary financing from abroad enables a
government to spend more on the military than would other-wise be possible. It is
therefore bad economics and bad policy on the part of the donor nations and
international financial institutions to continue to behave as if the funding of
stabilization, adjustment and development programs can be separated from the
financing of military expenditures." (MacNamara, Finance & Development, p. 27)

Similar external expression of concern about the extent to which balance of payments support is

alleviating poverty has led international financing agencies to rethink their approaches to poverty alleviation, e.g.

whether the mix of general purpose balance of payments and project or sector level assistance is satisfactory.

Thus many well-intentioned actions of international financing institutions have had inadvertent consequences that

they have been too slow to recognize and too reticent to correct.

The often-used description of GATT (the General Agreement on Trade and Tariffs), an influential

agency that once helped achieve a major reduction in the world trade barriers, as the General Agreement to

"Talk and Talk", captures another part of the problem international agencies face. Industrial countries have been

reluctant to reduce their own protective barriers towards agriculture.

The UN agencies have similarly been reactive in many territorial disputes, thereby de facto delegating

the power to police the world to a handful of industrial nations. Given the inequality in economic power, and

its further recent reinforcement through developments in the Soviet Union, such imbalance seems inevitable.

Only the powerful industrial countries can take the necessary corrective actions to restore the leadership of the

various international agencies to perform the numerous global conflict resolution functions that only they can

perform effectively.

Stens Towards Enhancing World Security

First, the experience of the so-called "East Asian tigers", China and South Asia, show that regardless

of the size of the economies it is possible to pursue economic policies that will allow growth to occur while

improving the lot of the poor.

Second, responsible macroeconomic management is essential in developing countries in which decisions

to manage the balance of payments and the government budget must be guided by know-how of the complex

and rapidly changing international forces.

Third, public investment in infrastructure is as important to rapid export-oriented growth as

macroeconomic policies.

Fourth, investment in human capital through public expenditures on health, education, access to water

supply, etc., are as important as macroeconomic policy to achieve equitable growth, reduce the size of the

population and increase its quality.

Fifth, public investment requires reduction of the large debt burden.

Sixth, both debtor and creditors must share in the responsibility for the debt burden.

Seventh, an open trade regime and not simply the general economic growth in industrial countries is

critical for developing countries to expand their exports.

Eighth, restoration of external aid to countries pursuing economic development and democratic values

(as observed in the immediate post-World War II period by the U.S.) is both necessary and appropriate in the

changed world.

Ninth, a system of collective security, a guarantee by the Security Council, the United Nations, and the

various regional organizations of the territorial integrity and internal political security of member states would

go a long way in reducing regional conflicts and releasing resources from arms to development.

Finally, and not the least important, active diplomacy on the economic front to address the complex and

interrelated problems of disarmament, trade, aid, economic policy reform and the environment needs strong

international organizations with considerable leadership.

With these steps, disarmament and economic development can be a reality for a smaller and more

secure world population.


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Bhagwati, Jagdish. 1991. The World Trading System at Risk. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.

1989. Protectionism. The Ohlin Lectures No. 1. Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press.

Brandt, Willy. 1986. Arms and Hunger. Translated by Anthea Bell. New York: Pantheon Books.

Brauer, Jurgen. 1991. "Military Investments and Economic Growth in Developing Nations." Economic
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Diamond, Larry, Juan J. Linz and Seymour Martin Lipset, eds. 1988. Democracy in Developing Countries:
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DrEze, Jean and Amartya Sen. 1989 Hunger and Public Action. Oxford, U.K.: Clarendon Press.

Ghosh, Pradip K., ed. 1984. Disarmament and Development: A Global Perspective. Westport, Conn:
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Grier, Kevin B., and Gordon Tullock. 1989. "An Empirical Analysis of Cross-National Economic Growth, 1951-
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Hewitt, Daniel P. September 1991. "Military Expenditures in the Developing World." Finance & Development.
Washington, D.C.: World Bank. p. 22-25.

Johnson, Gale D. 1990. The People's Republic of China: 1978-1990. International Center for Economic
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